Identifying the scale-dependent motifs in atmospheric surface layer by ordinal pattern analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qinglei; Fu, Zuntao

2018-07-01

Ramp-like structures in various atmospheric surface layer time series have been long studied, but the presence of motifs with the finer scale embedded within larger scale ramp-like structures has largely been overlooked in the reported literature. Here a novel, objective and well-adapted methodology, the ordinal pattern analysis, is adopted to study the finer-scaled motifs in atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) time series. The studies show that the motifs represented by different ordinal patterns take clustering properties and 6 dominated motifs out of the whole 24 motifs account for about 45% of the time series under particular scales, which indicates the higher contribution of motifs with the finer scale to the series. Further studies indicate that motif statistics are similar for both stable conditions and unstable conditions at larger scales, but large discrepancies are found at smaller scales, and the frequencies of motifs "1234" and/or "4321" are a bit higher under stable conditions than unstable conditions. Under stable conditions, there are great changes for the occurrence frequencies of motifs "1234" and "4321", where the occurrence frequencies of motif "1234" decrease from nearly 24% to 4.5% with the scale factor increasing, and the occurrence frequencies of motif "4321" change nonlinearly with the scale increasing. These great differences of dominated motifs change with scale can be taken as an indicator to quantify the flow structure changes under different stability conditions, and motif entropy can be defined just by only 6 dominated motifs to quantify this time-scale independent property of the motifs. All these results suggest that the defined scale of motifs with the finer scale should be carefully taken into consideration in the interpretation of turbulence coherent structures.

Inferring changes in water cycle dynamics of intensively managed landscapes via the theory of time-variant travel time distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danesh-Yazdi, Mohammad; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Karwan, Diana L.; Botter, Gianluca

2016-10-01

Climatic trends and anthropogenic changes in land cover and land use are impacting the hydrology and water quality of streams at the field, watershed, and regional scales in complex ways. In poorly drained agricultural landscapes, subsurface drainage systems have been successful in increasing crop productivity by removing excess soil moisture. However, their hydroecological consequences are still debated in view of the observed increased concentrations of nitrate, phosphorus, and pesticides in many streams, as well as altered runoff volumes and timing. In this study, we employ the recently developed theory of time-variant travel time distributions within the StorAge Selection function framework to quantify changes in water cycle dynamics resulting from the combined climate and land use changes. Our results from analysis of a subbasin in the Minnesota River Basin indicate a significant decrease in the mean travel time of water in the shallow subsurface layer during the growing season under current conditions compared to the pre-1970s conditions. We also find highly damped year-to-year fluctuations in the mean travel time, which we attribute to the "homogenization" of the hydrologic response due to artificial drainage. The dependence of the mean travel time on the spatial heterogeneity of some soil characteristics as well as on the basin scale is further explored via numerical experiments. Simulations indicate that the mean travel time is independent of scale for spatial scales larger than approximately 200 km2, suggesting that hydrologic data from larger basins may be used to infer the average of smaller-scale-driven changes in water cycle dynamics.

Measuring pretest-posttest change with a Rasch Rating Scale Model.

PubMed

Wolfe, E W; Chiu, C W

1999-01-01

When measures are taken on the same individual over time, it is difficult to determine whether observed differences are the result of changes in the person or changes in other facets of the measurement situation (e.g., interpretation of items or use of rating scale). This paper describes a method for disentangling changes in persons from changes in the interpretation of Likert-type questionnaire items and the use of rating scales (Wright, 1996a). The procedure relies on anchoring strategies to create a common frame of reference for interpreting measures that are taken at different times and provides a detailed illustration of how to implement these procedures using FACETS.

Rapid climate fluctuations over the past millennium: evidence from a lacustrine record of Basomtso Lake, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Li, Kai; Liu, Xingqi; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Wang, Yongbo

2016-01-01

Abrupt climate changes and fluctuations over short time scales are superimposed on long-term climate changes. Understanding rapid climate fluctuations at the decadal time scale over the past millennium will enhance our understanding of patterns of climate variability and aid in forecasting climate changes in the future. In this study, climate changes on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past millennium were determined from a 4.82-m-long sediment core from Basomtso Lake. At the centennial time scale, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period (CWP) are distinct in the Basomtso region. Rapid climate fluctuations inferred from five episodes with higher sediment input and likely warmer conditions, as well as seven episodes with lower sediment input and likely colder conditions, were well preserved in our record. These episodes with higher and lower sediment input are characterized by abrupt climate changes and short time durations. Spectral analysis indicates that the climate variations at the centennial scale on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are influenced by solar activity during the past millennium. PMID:27091591

Towards a critical transition theory under different temporal scales and noise strengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jifan; Li, Tiejun; Chen, Luonan

2016-03-01

The mechanism of critical phenomena or critical transitions has been recently studied from various aspects, in particular considering slow parameter change and small noise. In this article, we systematically classify critical transitions into three types based on temporal scales and noise strengths of dynamical systems. Specifically, the classification is made by comparing three important time scales τλ, τtran, and τergo, where τλ is the time scale of parameter change (e.g., the change of environment), τtran is the time scale when a particle or state transits from a metastable state into another, and τergo is the time scale when the system becomes ergodic. According to the time scales, we classify the critical transition behaviors as three types, i.e., state transition, basin transition, and distribution transition. Moreover, for each type of transition, there are two cases, i.e., single-trajectory transition and multitrajectory ensemble transition, which correspond to the transition of individual behavior and population behavior, respectively. We also define the critical point for each type of critical transition, derive several properties, and further propose the indicators for predicting critical transitions with numerical simulations. In addition, we show that the noise-to-signal ratio is effective to make the classification of critical transitions for real systems.

Weighing Scale-Based Pulse Transit Time is a Superior Marker of Blood Pressure than Conventional Pulse Arrival Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Stephanie L.-O.; Carek, Andrew M.; Kim, Chang-Sei; Ashouri, Hazar; Inan, Omer T.; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

2016-12-01

Pulse transit time (PTT) is being widely pursued for cuff-less blood pressure (BP) monitoring. Most efforts have employed the time delay between ECG and finger photoplethysmography (PPG) waveforms as a convenient surrogate of PTT. However, these conventional pulse arrival time (PAT) measurements include the pre-ejection period (PEP) and the time delay through small, muscular arteries and may thus be an unreliable marker of BP. We assessed a bathroom weighing scale-like system for convenient measurement of ballistocardiography and foot PPG waveforms - and thus PTT through larger, more elastic arteries - in terms of its ability to improve tracking of BP in individual subjects. We measured “scale PTT”, conventional PAT, and cuff BP in humans during interventions that increased BP but changed PEP and smooth muscle contraction differently. Scale PTT tracked the diastolic BP changes well, with correlation coefficient of -0.80 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) and root-mean-squared-error of 7.6 ± 0.5 mmHg after a best-case calibration. Conventional PAT was significantly inferior in tracking these changes, with correlation coefficient of -0.60 ± 0.04 and root-mean-squared-error of 14.6 ± 1.5 mmHg (p < 0.05). Scale PTT also tracked the systolic BP changes better than conventional PAT but not to an acceptable level. With further development, scale PTT may permit reliable, convenient measurement of BP.

Weighing Scale-Based Pulse Transit Time is a Superior Marker of Blood Pressure than Conventional Pulse Arrival Time.

PubMed

Martin, Stephanie L-O; Carek, Andrew M; Kim, Chang-Sei; Ashouri, Hazar; Inan, Omer T; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

2016-12-15

Pulse transit time (PTT) is being widely pursued for cuff-less blood pressure (BP) monitoring. Most efforts have employed the time delay between ECG and finger photoplethysmography (PPG) waveforms as a convenient surrogate of PTT. However, these conventional pulse arrival time (PAT) measurements include the pre-ejection period (PEP) and the time delay through small, muscular arteries and may thus be an unreliable marker of BP. We assessed a bathroom weighing scale-like system for convenient measurement of ballistocardiography and foot PPG waveforms - and thus PTT through larger, more elastic arteries - in terms of its ability to improve tracking of BP in individual subjects. We measured "scale PTT", conventional PAT, and cuff BP in humans during interventions that increased BP but changed PEP and smooth muscle contraction differently. Scale PTT tracked the diastolic BP changes well, with correlation coefficient of -0.80 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) and root-mean-squared-error of 7.6 ± 0.5 mmHg after a best-case calibration. Conventional PAT was significantly inferior in tracking these changes, with correlation coefficient of -0.60 ± 0.04 and root-mean-squared-error of 14.6 ± 1.5 mmHg (p < 0.05). Scale PTT also tracked the systolic BP changes better than conventional PAT but not to an acceptable level. With further development, scale PTT may permit reliable, convenient measurement of BP.

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Li, Guiying; Moran, Emilio; Hetrick, Scott

2013-01-01

This paper provides a comparative analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) changes among three study areas with different biophysical environments in the Brazilian Amazon at multiple scales, from per-pixel, polygon, census sector, to study area. Landsat images acquired in the years of 1990/1991, 1999/2000, and 2008/2010 were used to examine LULC change trajectories with the post-classification comparison approach. A classification system composed of six classes – forest, savanna, other-vegetation (secondary succession and plantations), agro-pasture, impervious surface, and water, was designed for this study. A hierarchical-based classification method was used to classify Landsat images into thematic maps. This research shows different spatiotemporal change patterns, composition and rates among the three study areas and indicates the importance of analyzing LULC change at multiple scales. The LULC change analysis over time for entire study areas provides an overall picture of change trends, but detailed change trajectories and their spatial distributions can be better examined at a per-pixel scale. The LULC change at the polygon scale provides the information of the changes in patch sizes over time, while the LULC change at census sector scale gives new insights on how human-induced activities (e.g., urban expansion, roads, and land use history) affect LULC change patterns and rates. This research indicates the necessity to implement change detection at multiple scales for better understanding the mechanisms of LULC change patterns and rates. PMID:24127130

An approach for estimating item sensitivity to within-person change over time: An illustration using the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog).

PubMed

Dowling, N Maritza; Bolt, Daniel M; Deng, Sien

2016-12-01

When assessments are primarily used to measure change over time, it is important to evaluate items according to their sensitivity to change, specifically. Items that demonstrate good sensitivity to between-person differences at baseline may not show good sensitivity to change over time, and vice versa. In this study, we applied a longitudinal factor model of change to a widely used cognitive test designed to assess global cognitive status in dementia, and contrasted the relative sensitivity of items to change. Statistically nested models were estimated introducing distinct latent factors related to initial status differences between test-takers and within-person latent change across successive time points of measurement. Models were estimated using all available longitudinal item-level data from the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale, including participants representing the full-spectrum of disease status who were enrolled in the multisite Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Five of the 13 Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive items demonstrated noticeably higher loadings with respect to sensitivity to change. Attending to performance change on only these 5 items yielded a clearer picture of cognitive decline more consistent with theoretical expectations in comparison to the full 13-item scale. Items that show good psychometric properties in cross-sectional studies are not necessarily the best items at measuring change over time, such as cognitive decline. Applications of the methodological approach described and illustrated in this study can advance our understanding regarding the types of items that best detect fine-grained early pathological changes in cognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinsley, Brian A.

1990-01-01

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Weighing Scale-Based Pulse Transit Time is a Superior Marker of Blood Pressure than Conventional Pulse Arrival Time

PubMed Central

Martin, Stephanie L.-O.; Carek, Andrew M.; Kim, Chang-Sei; Ashouri, Hazar; Inan, Omer T.; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

2016-01-01

Pulse transit time (PTT) is being widely pursued for cuff-less blood pressure (BP) monitoring. Most efforts have employed the time delay between ECG and finger photoplethysmography (PPG) waveforms as a convenient surrogate of PTT. However, these conventional pulse arrival time (PAT) measurements include the pre-ejection period (PEP) and the time delay through small, muscular arteries and may thus be an unreliable marker of BP. We assessed a bathroom weighing scale-like system for convenient measurement of ballistocardiography and foot PPG waveforms – and thus PTT through larger, more elastic arteries – in terms of its ability to improve tracking of BP in individual subjects. We measured “scale PTT”, conventional PAT, and cuff BP in humans during interventions that increased BP but changed PEP and smooth muscle contraction differently. Scale PTT tracked the diastolic BP changes well, with correlation coefficient of −0.80 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) and root-mean-squared-error of 7.6 ± 0.5 mmHg after a best-case calibration. Conventional PAT was significantly inferior in tracking these changes, with correlation coefficient of −0.60 ± 0.04 and root-mean-squared-error of 14.6 ± 1.5 mmHg (p < 0.05). Scale PTT also tracked the systolic BP changes better than conventional PAT but not to an acceptable level. With further development, scale PTT may permit reliable, convenient measurement of BP. PMID:27976741

How life changes itself: the Read-Write (RW) genome.

PubMed

Shapiro, James A

2013-09-01

The genome has traditionally been treated as a Read-Only Memory (ROM) subject to change by copying errors and accidents. In this review, I propose that we need to change that perspective and understand the genome as an intricately formatted Read-Write (RW) data storage system constantly subject to cellular modifications and inscriptions. Cells operate under changing conditions and are continually modifying themselves by genome inscriptions. These inscriptions occur over three distinct time-scales (cell reproduction, multicellular development and evolutionary change) and involve a variety of different processes at each time scale (forming nucleoprotein complexes, epigenetic formatting and changes in DNA sequence structure). Research dating back to the 1930s has shown that genetic change is the result of cell-mediated processes, not simply accidents or damage to the DNA. This cell-active view of genome change applies to all scales of DNA sequence variation, from point mutations to large-scale genome rearrangements and whole genome duplications (WGDs). This conceptual change to active cell inscriptions controlling RW genome functions has profound implications for all areas of the life sciences. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scale-dependent behavior of the foredune: Implications for barrier island response to storms and sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houser, Chris; Wernette, Phil; Weymer, Bradley A.

2018-02-01

The impact of storm surge on a barrier island tends to be considered from a single cross-shore dimension, dependent on the relative elevations of the storm surge and dune crest. However, the foredune is rarely uniform and can exhibit considerable variation in height and width at a range of length scales. In this study, LiDAR data from barrier islands in Texas and Florida are used to explore how shoreline position and dune morphology vary alongshore, and to determine how this variability is altered or reinforced by storms and post-storm recovery. Wavelet analysis reveals that a power law can approximate historical shoreline change across all scales, but that storm-scale shoreline change ( 10 years) and dune height exhibit similar scale-dependent variations at swash and surf zone scales (< 1000 m). The in-phase nature of the relationship between dune height and storm-scale shoreline change indicates that areas of greater storm-scale shoreline retreat are associated with areas of smaller dunes. It is argued that the decoupling of storm-scale and historical shoreline change at swash and surf zone scales is also associated with the alongshore redistribution of sediment and the tendency of shorelines to evolve to a more diffusive (or straight) pattern with time. The wavelet analysis of the data for post-storm dune recovery is also characterized by red noise at the smallest scales characteristic of diffusive systems, suggesting that it is possible that small-scale variations in dune height can be repaired through alongshore recovery and expansion if there is sufficient time between storms. However, the time required for dune recovery exceeds the time between storms capable of eroding and overwashing the dune. Correlation between historical shoreline retreat and the variance of the dune at swash and surf zone scales suggests that the persistence of the dune is an important control on transgression through island migration or shoreline retreat with relative sea-level rise.

Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

2013-01-01

The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

Evidence for the timing of sea-level events during MIS 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddall, M.

2005-12-01

Four large sea-level peaks of millennial-scale duration occur during MIS 3. In addition smaller peaks may exist close to the sensitivity of existing methods to derive sea level during these periods. Millennial-scale changes in temperature during MIS 3 are well documented across much of the planet and are linked in some unknown, yet fundamental way to changes in ice volume / sea level. It is therefore highly likely that the timing of the sea level events during MIS 3 will prove to be a `Rosetta Stone' for understanding millennial scale climate variability. I will review observational and mechanistic arguments for the variation of sea level on Antarctic, Greenland and absolute time scales.

Measuring the relative resilience of subarctic lakes to global change: redundancies of functions within and across temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2013-01-01

1. Ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global change. We assessed the responses of littoral invertebrate communities to changing abiotic conditions in subarctic Swedish lakes with long-term data (1988–2010) and compared the responses of subarctic lakes with those of more southern, hemiboreal lakes. 2. We used a complex systems approach, based on multivariate time-series modelling, and identified dominant and distinct temporal frequencies in the data; that is, we tracked community change at distinct temporal scales. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across temporal scales. Within and cross-scale distributions of functions have been considered to confer resilience to ecosystems, despite changing environmental conditions. 3. Two patterns of temporal change within the invertebrate communities were identified that were consistent across the lakes. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second was one of showing fluctuation patterns largely unrelated to gradual environmental change. Thus, two dominant and distinct temporal frequencies (temporal scales) were present in all lakes analysed. 4. Although the contribution of individual feeding groups varied between subarctic and hemiboreal lakes, they shared overall similar functional attributes (richness, evenness, diversity) and redundancies of functions within and between the observed temporal scales. This highlights similar resilience characteristics in subarctic and hemiboreal lakes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The effects of global change can be particularly strong at a single scale in ecosystems. Over time, this can cause monotonic change in communities and eventually lead to a loss of important ecosystem services upon reaching a critical threshold. Dynamics at other spatial or temporal scales can be unrelated to environmental change. The relative ‘intactness’ of these scales that are unaffected by global change and the persistence of functions at those scales may safeguard the whole system from the potential loss of functions at the scale at which global change impacts can be substantial. Thus, an understanding of scale-specific processes provides managers with a realistic assessment of vulnerabilities and the relative resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. Explicit consideration of ‘intact’ and ‘affected’ scales in analyses of global change impacts provides opportunities to tailor more specific management plans.

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

The stability and change of etiological influences on depression, anxiety symptoms and their co-occurrence across adolescence and young adulthood.

PubMed

Waszczuk, M A; Zavos, H M S; Gregory, A M; Eley, T C

2016-01-01

Depression and anxiety persist within and across diagnostic boundaries. The manner in which common v. disorder-specific genetic and environmental influences operate across development to maintain internalizing disorders and their co-morbidity is unclear. This paper investigates the stability and change of etiological influences on depression, panic, generalized, separation and social anxiety symptoms, and their co-occurrence, across adolescence and young adulthood. A total of 2619 twins/siblings prospectively reported symptoms of depression and anxiety at mean ages 15, 17 and 20 years. Each symptom scale showed a similar pattern of moderate continuity across development, largely underpinned by genetic stability. New genetic influences contributing to change in the developmental course of the symptoms emerged at each time point. All symptom scales correlated moderately with one another over time. Genetic influences, both stable and time-specific, overlapped considerably between the scales. Non-shared environmental influences were largely time- and symptom-specific, but some contributed moderately to the stability of depression and anxiety symptom scales. These stable, longitudinal environmental influences were highly correlated between the symptoms. The results highlight both stable and dynamic etiology of depression and anxiety symptom scales. They provide preliminary evidence that stable as well as newly emerging genes contribute to the co-morbidity between depression and anxiety across adolescence and young adulthood. Conversely, environmental influences are largely time-specific and contribute to change in symptoms over time. The results inform molecular genetics research and transdiagnostic treatment and prevention approaches.

STABLE ISOPTOPE RATIOS IN ARCHIVED STRIPED BASS SCALES SUGGEST CHANGES IN TROPHIC STRUCTURE

EPA Science Inventory

Stable carbon isotope ratios were measured in archived striped bass, Morone saxatilis (Walbaum), scales to identify changes in the feeding behaviour of this species over time. Striped bass tissue and scale samples were collected from Rhode Island coastal waters during 1996 and ar...

Coordinated Approaches to Quantify Long-Term Ecosystem dynamics in Response to Global Change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change and its impact on ecosystems are usually assessed at decadal and century time scales. Ecological responses to climate change at those scales are strongly regulated by long-term processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by big trees, and nutrient r...

Thermal performance curves, phenotypic plasticity, and the time scales of temperature exposure.

PubMed

Schulte, Patricia M; Healy, Timothy M; Fangue, Nann A

2011-11-01

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) describe the effects of temperature on biological rate processes. Here, we use examples from our work on common killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) to illustrate some important conceptual issues relating to TPCs in the context of using these curves to predict the responses of organisms to climate change. Phenotypic plasticity has the capacity to alter the shape and position of the TPCs for acute exposures, but these changes can be obscured when rate processes are measured only following chronic exposures. For example, the acute TPC for mitochondrial respiration in killifish is exponential in shape, but this shape changes with acclimation. If respiration rate is measured only at the acclimation temperature, the TPC is linear, concealing the underlying mechanistic complexity at an acute time scale. These issues are particularly problematic when attempting to use TPCs to predict the responses of organisms to temperature change in natural environments. Many TPCs are generated using laboratory exposures to constant temperatures, but temperature fluctuates in the natural environment, and the mechanisms influencing performance at acute and chronic time scales, and the responses of the performance traits at these time scales may be quite different. Unfortunately, our current understanding of the mechanisms underlying the responses of organisms to temperature change is incomplete, particularly with respect to integrating from processes occurring at the level of single proteins up to whole-organism functions across different time scales, which is a challenge for the development of strongly grounded mechanistic models of responses to global climate change. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the underlying population.

Biointerface dynamics--Multi scale modeling considerations.

PubMed

Pajic-Lijakovic, Ivana; Levic, Steva; Nedovic, Viktor; Bugarski, Branko

2015-08-01

Irreversible nature of matrix structural changes around the immobilized cell aggregates caused by cell expansion is considered within the Ca-alginate microbeads. It is related to various effects: (1) cell-bulk surface effects (cell-polymer mechanical interactions) and cell surface-polymer surface effects (cell-polymer electrostatic interactions) at the bio-interface, (2) polymer-bulk volume effects (polymer-polymer mechanical and electrostatic interactions) within the perturbed boundary layers around the cell aggregates, (3) cumulative surface and volume effects within the parts of the microbead, and (4) macroscopic effects within the microbead as a whole based on multi scale modeling approaches. All modeling levels are discussed at two time scales i.e. long time scale (cell growth time) and short time scale (cell rearrangement time). Matrix structural changes results in the resistance stress generation which have the feedback impact on: (1) single and collective cell migrations, (2) cell deformation and orientation, (3) decrease of cell-to-cell separation distances, and (4) cell growth. Herein, an attempt is made to discuss and connect various multi scale modeling approaches on a range of time and space scales which have been proposed in the literature in order to shed further light to this complex course-consequence phenomenon which induces the anomalous nature of energy dissipation during the structural changes of cell aggregates and matrix quantified by the damping coefficients (the orders of the fractional derivatives). Deeper insight into the matrix partial disintegration within the boundary layers is useful for understanding and minimizing the polymer matrix resistance stress generation within the interface and on that base optimizing cell growth. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding relationships among ecosystem services across spatial scales and over time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Booth, Eric G.; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C.; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Loheide, Steven P., II; Turner, Monica G.

2018-05-01

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES), mitigating their tradeoffs and avoiding unfavorable future trajectories are pressing social-environmental challenges that require enhanced understanding of their relationships across scales. Current knowledge of ES relationships is often constrained to one spatial scale or one snapshot in time. In this research, we integrated biophysical modeling with future scenarios to examine changes in relationships among eight ES indicators from 2001–2070 across three spatial scales—grid cell, subwatershed, and watershed. We focused on the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin) in the Midwestern United States—an exemplar for many urbanizing agricultural landscapes. Relationships among ES indicators changed over time; some relationships exhibited high interannual variations (e.g. drainage vs. food production, nitrate leaching vs. net ecosystem exchange) and even reversed signs over time (e.g. perennial grass production vs. phosphorus yield). Robust patterns were detected for relationships among some regulating services (e.g. soil retention vs. water quality) across three spatial scales, but other relationships lacked simple scaling rules. This was especially true for relationships of food production vs. water quality, and drainage vs. number of days with runoff >10 mm, which differed substantially across spatial scales. Our results also showed that local tradeoffs between food production and water quality do not necessarily scale up, so reducing local tradeoffs may be insufficient to mitigate such tradeoffs at the watershed scale. We further synthesized these cross-scale patterns into a typology of factors that could drive changes in ES relationships across scales: (1) effects of biophysical connections, (2) effects of dominant drivers, (3) combined effects of biophysical linkages and dominant drivers, and (4) artificial scale effects, and concluded with management implications. Our study highlights the importance of taking a dynamic perspective and accounting for spatial scales in monitoring and management to sustain future ES.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Nucleation Kinetics in Near-Critical Liquids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patashinski, Alexander Z.; Ratner, Mark A.; Pines, Vladimir

1996-01-01

The objective of our study is to model the nonlinear behavior of a near-critical liquid following a rapid change of the temperature and/or other thermodynamic parameters (pressure, external electric or gravitational field). The thermodynamic critical point is manifested by large, strongly correlated fluctuations of the order parameter (particle density in liquid-gas systems, concentration in binary solutions) in the critical range of scales. The largest critical length scale is the correlation radius r(sub c). According to the scaling theory, r(sub c) increases as r(sub c) = r(sub 0)epsilon(exp -alpha) when the nondimensional distance epsilon = (T - T(sub c))/T(sub c) to the critical point decreases. The normal gravity alters the nature of correlated long-range fluctuations when one reaches epsilon approximately equal to 10(exp -5), and correspondingly the relaxation time, tau(r(sub c)), is approximately equal to 10(exp -3) seconds; this time is short when compared to the typical experimental time. Close to the critical point, a rapid, relatively small temperature change may perturb the thermodynamic equilibrium on many scales. The critical fluctuations have a hierarchical structure, and the relaxation involves many length and time scales. Above the critical point, in the one-phase region, we consider the relaxation of the liquid following a sudden temperature change that simultaneously violates the equilibrium on many scales. Below T(sub c), a non-equilibrium state may include a distribution of small scale phase droplets; we consider the relaxation of such a droplet following a temperature change that has made the phase of the matrix stable.

On the scaling features of high-latitude geomagnetic field fluctuations during a large geomagnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Michelis, Paola; Federica Marcucci, Maria; Consolini, Giuseppe

2015-04-01

Recently we have investigated the spatial distribution of the scaling features of short-time scale magnetic field fluctuations using measurements from several ground-based geomagnetic observatories distributed in the northern hemisphere. We have found that the scaling features of fluctuations of the horizontal magnetic field component at time scales below 100 minutes are correlated with the geomagnetic activity level and with changes in the currents flowing in the ionosphere. Here, we present a detailed analysis of the dynamical changes of the magnetic field scaling features as a function of the geomagnetic activity level during the well-known large geomagnetic storm occurred on July, 15, 2000 (the Bastille event). The observed dynamical changes are discussed in relationship with the changes of the overall ionospheric polar convection and potential structure as reconstructed using SuperDARN data. This work is supported by the Italian National Program for Antarctic Research (PNRA) - Research Project 2013/AC3.08 and by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme ([FP7/2007-2013]) under Grant no. 313038/STORM and

Determination of channel change for selected streams, Maricopa County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capesius, Joseph P.; Lehman, Ted W.

2002-01-01

In Maricopa County, Arizona, 10 sites on seven streams were studied to determine the lateral and vertical change of the channel. Channel change was studied over time scales ranging from individual floods to decades using cross-section surveys, discharge measurements, changes in the point of zero flow, and repeat photography. All of the channels showed some change in cross-section area or hydraulic radius over the time scales studied, but the direction and mag-nitude of change varied considerably from one flow, or series of flows, to another. The documentation of cross-section geometry for streams in Maricopa County for long-term monitoring was begun in this study.

Examining the Interplay of Processes Across Multiple Time-Scales: Illustration With the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health, and Interpersonal Behavior (iSAHIB).

PubMed

Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E; Pincus, Aaron L; Lorek, Amy; Rebar, Amanda; Roche, Michael J; Coccia, Michael; Morack, Jennifer; Feldman, Josh; Gerstorf, Denis

Human development is characterized by the complex interplay of processes that manifest at multiple levels of analysis and time-scales. We introduce the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health and Interpersonal Behavior (iSAHIB) as a model for how multiple time-scale study designs facilitate more precise articulation of developmental theory. Combining age heterogeneity, longitudinal panel, daily diary, and experience sampling protocols, the study made use of smartphone and web-based technologies to obtain intensive longitudinal data from 150 persons age 18-89 years as they completed three 21-day measurement bursts ( t = 426 bursts, t = 8,557 days) wherein they provided reports on their social interactions ( t = 64,112) as they went about their daily lives. We illustrate how multiple time-scales of data can be used to articulate bioecological models of development and the interplay among more 'distal' processes that manifest at 'slower' time-scales (e.g., age-related differences and burst-to-burst changes in mental health) and more 'proximal' processes that manifest at 'faster' time-scales (e.g., changes in context that progress in accordance with the weekly calendar and family influence processes).

Real-time monitoring of ultrasound imaging of clinical high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) exposures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ter Haar, Gail; Kennedy, James; Leslie, Tom; Wu, Feng

2005-09-01

Currently, many clinical devices use the change in gray scale seen on a real-time ultrasound image for the assessment of the success of HIFU treatment. It has been shown previously that, for a single HIFU lesion, the presence of gray-scale change was indicative of successful ablation in 100% of cases for 1.6-MHz beams, and in 90% of cases for 0.8-MHz exposures. The absence of gray-scale change was a reliable indicator of lack of ablative damage only for 0.8-MHz exposures (80%) in 80% of exposures using 1.6-MHz beams there was a lesion even in the absence of gray-scale change. This study has been extended to more realistic clinical treatment protocols. The image appearance has been studied for the different volume ablation techniques that are used in the treatment of liver and kidney cancer. The results will be presented.

Short term evolution of coronal hole boundaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, J. T.; Krieger, A. S.; Solodyna, C. V.

1978-01-01

The evolution of coronal hole boundary positions on a time scale of approximately 1 day is studied on the basis of an examination of all coronal holes observed by Skylab from May to November 1973. It is found that a substantial fraction (an average of 38%) of all coronal hole boundaries shifted by at least 1 deg heliocentric in the course of a day. Most (70%) of these changes were on a relatively small scale (less than 3 times the supergranulation cell size), but a significant fraction occurred as discrete events on a much larger scale. The large-scale shifts in the boundary locations involved changes in X-ray emission from these areas of the sun. There were generally more changes in the boundaries of the most rapidly evolving holes, but no simple relationship between the amount of change and the rate of hole growth or decay.

Direct observation of fast protein conformational switching.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Haruto; Kwak, Kyungwon; Chung, Jean K; Kim, Seongheun; Fayer, Michael D

2008-06-24

Folded proteins can exist in multiple conformational substates. Each substate reflects a local minimum on the free-energy landscape with a distinct structure. By using ultrafast 2D-IR vibrational echo chemical-exchange spectroscopy, conformational switching between two well defined substates of a myoglobin mutant is observed on the approximately 50-ps time scale. The conformational dynamics are directly measured through the growth of cross peaks in the 2D-IR spectra of CO bound to the heme active site. The conformational switching involves motion of the distal histidine/E helix that changes the location of the imidazole side group of the histidine. The exchange between substates changes the frequency of the CO, which is detected by the time dependence of the 2D-IR vibrational echo spectrum. These results demonstrate that interconversion between protein conformational substates can occur on very fast time scales. The implications for larger structural changes that occur on much longer time scales are discussed.

Investigating precipitation changes of anthropic origin: data and methodological issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

There is much concern about the social, environmental and economic impacts of climate change that could result directly from changes in temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the situation is better understood; but despite the many studies that have been already dedicated to precipitation, change in this process - that could be associated to the transition to the Anthropocene - has not yet been convincingly proven. A large fraction of those studies have been exploring temporal (linear) trends in local precipitation, sometimes using records over only a few decades; other fewer studies have been dedicated to investigating global precipitation change. Overall, precipitation change of anthropic origin has showed to be difficult to establish with high statistical significance and, moreover, different data and products have displayed important discrepancies; this is valid even for global precipitation. We argue that the inadequate resolution and length of the data commonly used, as well as methodological issues, are among the main factors limiting the ability to identify the signature of change in precipitation. We propose several ways in which one can hope to improve the situation - or at least - clarify the difficulties. From the point of view of statistical analysis, the problem is one of detecting a low frequency anthropogenic signal in the presence of "noise" - the natural variability (the latter includes both internal dynamics and responses to volcanic, solar or other natural forcings). A consequence is that as one moves to longer and longer time scales, fluctuations are increasingly averaged and at some point, the anthropogenic signal will stand out above the natural variability noise. This approach can be systematized using scaling fluctuation analysis to characterizing different precipitation scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate - from higher to lower frequencies; in the anthropocene, the macroweather regime covers the range of time scales from about a month to ≈30 years. We illustrate this using local gauge data and three qualitatively different global scale precipitation products (from gauges, reanalyses and a satellite and gauge hybrid) that allow to investigate precipitation from monthly to centennial scales and in space from planetary down to 5°x5° scales. By systematically characterizing precipitation variability across wide ranges of time and space scales, we show that the anthropogenic signal only exceeded the natural variability at time scales larger than ≈20 years, so that the disagreement in the trends can be traced to these low frequencies.

Transition from lognormal to χ2-superstatistics for financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Dan; Beck, Christian

2016-07-01

Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while χ2-superstatistics works well on a time scale of days, on a much smaller time scale of minutes the price changes are better described by lognormal superstatistics. The system dynamics thus exhibits a transition from lognormal to χ2 superstatistics as a function of time scale. We discuss a more general model interpolating between both statistics which fits the observed data very well. We also present results on correlation functions of the extracted superstatistical volatility parameter, which exhibits exponential decay for returns on large time scales, whereas for returns on small time scales there are long-range correlations and power-law decay.

Space and time scales in human-landscape systems.

PubMed

Kondolf, G Mathias; Podolak, Kristen

2014-01-01

Exploring spatial and temporal scales provides a way to understand human alteration of landscape processes and human responses to these processes. We address three topics relevant to human-landscape systems: (1) scales of human impacts on geomorphic processes, (2) spatial and temporal scales in river restoration, and (3) time scales of natural disasters and behavioral and institutional responses. Studies showing dramatic recent change in sediment yields from uplands to the ocean via rivers illustrate the increasingly vast spatial extent and quick rate of human landscape change in the last two millennia, but especially in the second half of the twentieth century. Recent river restoration efforts are typically small in spatial and temporal scale compared to the historical human changes to ecosystem processes, but the cumulative effectiveness of multiple small restoration projects in achieving large ecosystem goals has yet to be demonstrated. The mismatch between infrequent natural disasters and individual risk perception, media coverage, and institutional response to natural disasters results in un-preparedness and unsustainable land use and building practices.

Variable order fractional Fokker-Planck equations derived from Continuous Time Random Walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straka, Peter

2018-08-01

Continuous Time Random Walk models (CTRW) of anomalous diffusion are studied, where the anomalous exponent β(x) ∈(0 , 1) varies in space. This type of situation occurs e.g. in biophysics, where the density of the intracellular matrix varies throughout a cell. Scaling limits of CTRWs are known to have probability distributions which solve fractional Fokker-Planck type equations (FFPE). This correspondence between stochastic processes and FFPE solutions has many useful extensions e.g. to nonlinear particle interactions and reactions, but has not yet been sufficiently developed for FFPEs of the "variable order" type with non-constant β(x) . In this article, variable order FFPEs (VOFFPE) are derived from scaling limits of CTRWs. The key mathematical tool is the 1-1 correspondence of a CTRW scaling limit to a bivariate Langevin process, which tracks the cumulative sum of jumps in one component and the cumulative sum of waiting times in the other. The spatially varying anomalous exponent is modelled by spatially varying β(x) -stable Lévy noise in the waiting time component. The VOFFPE displays a spatially heterogeneous temporal scaling behaviour, with generalized diffusivity and drift coefficients whose units are length2/timeβ(x) resp. length/timeβ(x). A global change of the time scale results in a spatially varying change in diffusivity and drift. A consequence of the mathematical derivation of a VOFFPE from CTRW limits in this article is that a solution of a VOFFPE can be approximated via Monte Carlo simulations. Based on such simulations, we are able to confirm that the VOFFPE is consistent under a change of the global time scale.

Scale and time dependence of serial correlations in word-length time series of written texts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, E.; Aguilar-Cornejo, M.; Femat, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

2014-11-01

This work considered the quantitative analysis of large written texts. To this end, the text was converted into a time series by taking the sequence of word lengths. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was used for characterizing long-range serial correlations of the time series. To this end, the DFA was implemented within a rolling window framework for estimating the variations of correlations, quantified in terms of the scaling exponent, strength along the text. Also, a filtering derivative was used to compute the dependence of the scaling exponent relative to the scale. The analysis was applied to three famous English-written literary narrations; namely, Alice in Wonderland (by Lewis Carrol), Dracula (by Bram Stoker) and Sense and Sensibility (by Jane Austen). The results showed that high correlations appear for scales of about 50-200 words, suggesting that at these scales the text contains the stronger coherence. The scaling exponent was not constant along the text, showing important variations with apparent cyclical behavior. An interesting coincidence between the scaling exponent variations and changes in narrative units (e.g., chapters) was found. This suggests that the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA is able to detect changes in narration structure as expressed by the usage of words of different lengths.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.

Paleobiology, community ecology, and scales of ecological pattern.

PubMed

Jablonski, D; Sepkoski, J J

1996-07-01

The fossil record provides a wealth of data on the role of regional processes and historical events in shaping biological communities over a variety of time scales. The Quaternary record with its evidence of repeated climatic change shows that both terrestrial and marine species shifted independently rather than as cohesive assemblages over scales of thousands of years. Larger scale patterns also show a strong individualistic component to taxon dynamics; assemblage stability, when it occurs, is difficult to separate from shared responses to low rates of environmental change. Nevertheless, the fossil record does suggest that some biotic interactions influence large-scale ecological and evolutionary patterns, albeit in more diffuse and protracted fashions than those generally studied by community ecologists. These include: (1) the resistance by incumbents to the establishment of new or invading taxa, with episodes of explosive diversification often appearing contingent on the removal of incumbents at extinction events; (2) steady states of within-habitat and global diversity at longer time scales (10(7)-l0(8) yr), despite enormous turnover of taxa; and (3) morphological and biogeographic responses to increased intensities of predation and substratum disturbance over similarly long time scales. The behavior of species and communities over the array of temporal and spatial scales in the fossil record takes on additional significance for framing conservation strategies, and for understanding recovery of species, lineages, and communities from environmental changes.

Paleobiology, community ecology, and scales of ecological pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jablonski, D.; Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1996-01-01

The fossil record provides a wealth of data on the role of regional processes and historical events in shaping biological communities over a variety of time scales. The Quaternary record with its evidence of repeated climatic change shows that both terrestrial and marine species shifted independently rather than as cohesive assemblages over scales of thousands of years. Larger scale patterns also show a strong individualistic component to taxon dynamics; assemblage stability, when it occurs, is difficult to separate from shared responses to low rates of environmental change. Nevertheless, the fossil record does suggest that some biotic interactions influence large-scale ecological and evolutionary patterns, albeit in more diffuse and protracted fashions than those generally studied by community ecologists. These include: (1) the resistance by incumbents to the establishment of new or invading taxa, with episodes of explosive diversification often appearing contingent on the removal of incumbents at extinction events; (2) steady states of within-habitat and global diversity at longer time scales (10(7)-l0(8) yr), despite enormous turnover of taxa; and (3) morphological and biogeographic responses to increased intensities of predation and substratum disturbance over similarly long time scales. The behavior of species and communities over the array of temporal and spatial scales in the fossil record takes on additional significance for framing conservation strategies, and for understanding recovery of species, lineages, and communities from environmental changes.

Network features of sector indexes spillover effects in China: A multi-scale view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Sida; Huang, Shupei; Qi, Yabin; Liu, Xueyong; Sun, Qingru; Wen, Shaobo

2018-04-01

The spillover effects among sectors are of concern for distinct market participants, who are in distinct investment horizons and concerned with the information in different time scales. In order to uncover the hidden spillover information in multi-time scales in the rapidly changing stock market and thereby offer guidance to different investors concerning distinct time scales from a system perspective, this paper constructed directional spillover effect networks for the economic sectors in distinct time scales. The results are as follows: (1) The "2-4 days" scale is the most risky scale, and the "8-16 days" scale is the least risky one. (2) The most influential and sensitive sectors are distinct in different time scales. (3) Although two sectors in the same community may not have direct spillover relations, the volatility of one sector will have a relatively strong influence on the other through indirect relations.

Movement disorder society unified Parkinson disease rating scale experiences in daily living: longitudinal changes and correlation with other assessments.

PubMed

Lang, Anthony E; Eberly, Shirley; Goetz, Christopher G; Stebbins, Glenn; Oakes, David; Marek, Ken; Ravina, Bernard; Tanner, Caroline M; Shoulson, Ira

2013-12-01

The Movement Disorder Society (MDS) commissioned a revision of the UPDRS with the goals of improving instructions and definitions, more accurately evaluating milder features, and assessing patient-reported outcomes and nonmotor features. To date, no study has evaluated longitudinal changes in components of the MDS-UPDRS over time or correlated these with changes in other scales of various symptoms. We assessed Parts I and II of the MDS-UPDRS (non-Motor and Motor Experiences of Daily Living [nM-EDL, M-EDL]) as well as a number of other scales of motor, cognitive and behavioral function in a large population of patients (n = 383) with early- to mid-stage Parkinson's disease (PD) who had previously participated in a trial of a putative disease-modifying agent. Both parts of a MDS-UPDRS showed significant change over the 3-year follow-up period, with M-EDL scores declining to a greater extent than nM-EDL. Both the scores and their changes over time correlated relatively well with other rating scales of similar disease aspects. Modest correlations with the original version of the UPDRS supported the increased attention to nonmotor symptoms as well as milder levels of severity in the MDS-UPDRS. The M-EDL was much more sensitive to change over time in these early- to mid-stage patients than the original UPDRS Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale. Finally, we showed no change over time in a small group of individuals with dopamine transporter single-photon emission computed tomography scans without evidence for dopamine deficiency. The nM-EDL and M-EDL components of the MDS-UPDRS provide an effective, relevant measure of change in the broad spectrum of symptoms of PD over the first decade of the disease. © 2013 Movement Disorder Society.

Constraints on Lithospheric Rheology From Fault Displacement Rate Histories and Numerical Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavier, L. L.; Bennett, R. A.; Anderson, M. L.; Matti, J. C.

2005-05-01

Recent displacement rate and geodetic data on the San Andreas, San Jacinto and eastern California shear zone suggest that changes in the geometry and/or the magnitude of the applied forces on the crust (e.g., a general or local change in fault strike relative to plate motion) can generate strain repartitioning within the crust on time scales of millions to thousands of years. The rates over which this repartitioning takes place in response to changing forces are controlled by the rheological evolution of the lithosphere. We investigate the implications of observed fault displacement histories for the rheology of the lithosphere using 2.5 D numerical experiments of deformation in an analogue system. The numerical technique used allows for the spontaneous formation of elastoplastic shear zones and flow in a Maxwell viscoelastic lower crust. The results show that when a strike slip fault is rotated to strike obliquely to the direction of relative plate motion it causes changes in bending and frictional stresses due to the formation of topography. To accommodate these changes, a conjugate system of oblique-striking strike slip faults develops. The total displacement is then slowly distributed over the new fault system on the time scale of mountain building (i.e. million of years). The rate of change is dependent on the strength of the lithosphere as well as the amount of obliquity applied on the initial strike-slip fault. In other numerical experiments we show that in a system of multiple strike-slip fault zones, displacement rate changes can occur over a time scale of about 100 kyr. This time scale corresponds to the Maxwell time at the brittle ductile transition (BDT). In such a system the lithospheric displacement is alternatively distributed (over 100 kyr) in clusters localized in lower crustal channels and over strike-slip fault zones. We show that the clustering time scale is controlled by the ratio of upper to lower crustal strength. This incomplete exercise shows how displacement rates data sets spanning thousands to millions of years can be used to constrain numerical experiments of lithospheric deformation and, in doing so, place new constraints on the rheology of the lithosphere.

Are Madrean ecosystems approaching tipping points? Anticipating interactions of landscape disturbance and climate change

Treesearch

Donald A. Falk

2013-01-01

Contemporary climate change is driving transitions in many Madrean ecosystems, but the time scale of these changes is accelerated greatly by severe landscape disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks. Landscape-scale disturbance events such as wildfires interact with prior disturbance patterns and landscape structure to catalyze abrupt transitions to novel...

Association between changes on the Negative Symptom Assessment scale (NSA-16) and measures of functional outcome in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Velligan, Dawn I; Alphs, Larry; Lancaster, Scott; Morlock, Robert; Mintz, Jim

2009-09-30

We examined whether changes in negative symptoms, as measured by scores on the 16-item Negative Symptom Assessment scale (NSA-16), were associated with changes in functional outcome. A group of 125 stable outpatients with schizophrenia were assessed at baseline and at 6 months using the NSA-16, the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, and multiple measures of functional outcome. Baseline adjusted regression coefficients indicated moderate correlations between negative symptoms and functional outcomes when baseline values of both variables were controlled. Results were nearly identical when we controlled for positive symptoms. Cross-lag panel correlations and Structural Equation Modeling were used to examine whether changes in negative symptoms drove changes in functional outcomes over time. Results indicated that negative symptoms drove the changes in the Social and Occupational Functioning Scale (SOFAS) rather than the reverse. Measures of Quality of Life and measures of negative symptoms may be assessing overlapping constructs or changes in both may be driven by a third variable. Negative symptoms were unrelated over time to scores on a performance-based measure of functional capacity. This study indicates that the relationship between negative symptom change and the change in functional outcomes is complex, and points to potential issues in selection of assessments.

Validity, Sensitivity, and Responsiveness of the 11-Face Faces Pain Scale to Postoperative Pain in Adult Orthopedic Surgery Patients.

PubMed

Van Giang, Nguyen; Chiu, Hsiao-Yean; Thai, Duong Hong; Kuo, Shu-Yu; Tsai, Pei-Shan

2015-10-01

Pain is common in patients after orthopedic surgery. The 11-face Faces Pain Scale has not been validated for use in adult patients with postoperative pain. To assess the validity of the 11-face Faces Pain Scale and its ability to detect responses to pain medications, and to determine whether the sensitivity of the 11-face Faces Pain Scale for detecting changes in pain intensity over time is associated with gender differences in adult postorthopedic surgery patients. The 11-face Faces Pain Scale was translated into Vietnamese using forward and back translation. Postoperative pain was assessed using an 11-point numerical rating scale and the 11-face Faces Pain Scale on the day of surgery, and before (Time 1) and every 30 minutes after (Times 2-5) the patients had taken pain medications on the first postoperative day. The 11-face Faces Pain Scale highly correlated with the numerical rating scale (r = 0.78, p < .001). When the scores from each follow-up test (Times 2-5) were compared with those from the baseline test (Time 1), the effect sizes were -0.70, -1.05, -1.20, and -1.31, and the standardized response means were -1.17, -1.59, -1.66, and -1.82, respectively. The mean change in pain intensity, but not gender-time interaction effect, over the five time points was significant (F = 182.03, p < .001). Our results support that the 11-face Faces Pain Scale is appropriate for measuring acute postoperative pain in adults. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Pain Management Nursing. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Small-Scale, Feasibility Study of Academic Language Time in Primary Grade Language Arts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roskos, Kathleen A.; Zuzolo, Nicole; Primm, Ashley

2017-01-01

A small-scale feasibility study was conducted to explore the implementation of academic language time (ALT) in primary grade classrooms with and without access to digital devices. Academic language time is a structural change that dedicates a portion of language arts instructional time to direct vocabulary instruction using evidence-based…

Method and apparatus for optical encoding with compressible imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leviton, Douglas B. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

The present invention presents an optical encoder with increased conversion rates. Improvement in the conversion rate is a result of combining changes in the pattern recognition encoder's scale pattern with an image sensor readout technique which takes full advantage of those changes, and lends itself to operation by modern, high-speed, ultra-compact microprocessors and digital signal processors (DSP) or field programmable gate array (FPGA) logic elements which can process encoder scale images at the highest speeds. Through these improvements, all three components of conversion time (reciprocal conversion rate)--namely exposure time, image readout time, and image processing time--are minimized.

A wavelet based approach to measure and manage contagion at different time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Theo

2015-10-01

We decompose financial return series of US stocks into different time scales with respect to different market regimes. First, we examine dependence structure of decomposed financial return series and analyze the impact of the current financial crisis on contagion and changing interdependencies as well as upper and lower tail dependence for different time scales. Second, we demonstrate to which extent the information of different time scales can be used in the context of portfolio management. As a result, minimizing the variance of short-run noise outperforms a portfolio that minimizes the variance of the return series.

Exact-Differential Large-Scale Traffic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanai, Masatoshi; Suzumura, Toyotaro; Theodoropoulos, Georgios

2015-01-01

Analyzing large-scale traffics by simulation needs repeating execution many times with various patterns of scenarios or parameters. Such repeating execution brings about big redundancy because the change from a prior scenario to a later scenario is very minor in most cases, for example, blocking only one of roads or changing the speed limit of several roads. In this paper, we propose a new redundancy reduction technique, called exact-differential simulation, which enables to simulate only changing scenarios in later execution while keeping exactly same results as in the case of whole simulation. The paper consists of two main efforts: (i) amore » key idea and algorithm of the exact-differential simulation, (ii) a method to build large-scale traffic simulation on the top of the exact-differential simulation. In experiments of Tokyo traffic simulation, the exact-differential simulation shows 7.26 times as much elapsed time improvement in average and 2.26 times improvement even in the worst case as the whole simulation.« less

Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogger, M.; Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J. C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, V.; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, J. N.; Robinson, M.; Salinas, J. L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; van den Akker, J. J. H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2017-07-01

Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long-term experiments on physical-chemical-biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.

Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research

PubMed Central

Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J. C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, V.; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, J. N.; Robinson, M.; Salinas, J. L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; van den Akker, J. J. H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2017-01-01

Abstract Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology. PMID:28919651

Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Wong, Takmeng; Allan, Richard; Slingo, Anthony; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Soden, Brian J.; Gordon, C. T.; Miller, Alvin J.; Yang, Shi-Keng; Randall, David R.;

A challenge to chaotic itinerancy from brain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, Leslie M.

2003-09-01

Brain hermeneutics and chaotic itinerancy proposed by Tsuda are attractive characterizations of perceptual dynamics in the mammalian olfactory system. This theory proposes that perception occurs at the interface between itinerant neural representation and interaction with the environment. Quantifiable application of these dynamics has been hampered by the lack of definable history and action processes which characterize the changes induced by behavioral state, attention, and learning. Local field potentials measured from several brain areas were used to characterize dynamic activity patterns for their use as representations of history and action processes. The signals were recorded from olfactory areas (olfactory bulb, OB, and pyriform cortex) and hippocampal areas (entorhinal cortex and dentate gyrus, DG) in the brains of rats. During odor-guided behavior the system shows dynamics at three temporal scales. Short time-scale changes are system-wide and can occur in the space of a single sniff. They are predictable, associated with learned shifts in behavioral state and occur periodically on the scale of the intertrial interval. These changes occupy the theta (2-12 Hz), beta (15-30 Hz), and gamma (40-100 Hz) frequency bands within and between all areas. Medium time-scale changes occur relatively unpredictably, manifesting in these data as alterations in connection strength between the OB and DG. These changes are strongly correlated with performance in associated trial blocks (5-10 min) and may be due to fluctuations in attention, mood, or amount of reward received. Long time-scale changes are likely related to learning or decline due to aging or disease. These may be modeled as slow monotonic processes that occur within or across days or even weeks or years. The folding of different time scales is proposed as a mechanism for chaotic itinerancy, represented by dynamic processes instead of static connection strengths. Thus, the individual maintains continuity of experience within the stability of fast periodic and slow monotonic processes, while medium scale events alter experience and performance dramatically but temporarily. These processes together with as yet to be determined action effects from motor system feedback are proposed as an instantiation of brain hermeneutics and chaotic itinerancy.

Cross-scale interactions, legacies, and spatial connectivity: integrating time and space to predict post-disturbance response across scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Emergent properties and cross-scale interactions are important in driving landscape-scale dynamics during a disturbance event, such as wildfire. We used these concepts related to changing pattern-process relationships across scales to explain ecological responses following disturbance that resulted ...

The Recovery Assessment Scale - Domains and Stages (RAS-DS): Sensitivity to change over time and convergent validity with level of unmet need.

PubMed

Scanlan, Justin Newton; Hancock, Nicola; Honey, Anne

2018-03-01

There is a need for robust outcome measures for use in psychiatric services. Particularly lacking are self-rated recovery measures with evidence of sensitivity to change. This study was established to examine the convergent validity and sensitivity to change over time (responsiveness) of the Recovery Assessment Scale - Domains and Stages (RAS-DS), in comparison to level of unmet need as measured by the Camberwell Assessment of Need - Short Appraisal Scale (CANSAS). Convergent validity was examined through cross-sectional correlations between 540 CANSAS and RAS-DS scores collected on the same day for the same individuals. Sensitivity to change was examined using correlations between change scores in CANSAS and RAS-DS where both were collected on the same day and the two time points were separated by 90 days or more (n = 498). Results demonstrated moderate, significant cross-sectional correlations between CANSAS scores and RAS-DS total and domain scores and between change scores of both instruments. Results suggest that the RAS-DS is sensitive enough to detect change over time. Only moderate correlation between the RAS-DS and CANSAS suggests that, in the context of recovery-oriented service provision, it is important to measure self-reported recovery in addition to level of unmet needs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multidecadal Variability in Surface Albedo Feedback Across CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Adam; Flanner, Mark; Perket, Justin

2018-02-01

Previous studies quantify surface albedo feedback (SAF) in climate change, but few assess its variability on decadal time scales. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble data set, we calculate time evolving SAF in multiple decades from surface albedo and temperature linear regressions. Results are meaningful when temperature change exceeds 0.5 K. Decadal-scale SAF is strongly correlated with century-scale SAF during the 21st century. Throughout the 21st century, multimodel ensemble mean SAF increases from 0.37 to 0.42 W m-2 K-1. These results suggest that models' mean decadal-scale SAFs are good estimates of their century-scale SAFs if there is at least 0.5 K temperature change. Persistent SAF into the late 21st century indicates ongoing capacity for Arctic albedo decline despite there being less sea ice. If the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble results are representative of the Earth, we cannot expect decreasing Arctic sea ice extent to suppress SAF in the 21st century.

Application of hierarchical clustering method to classify of space-time rainfall patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chang, Tu-Je

2010-05-01

Understanding the local precipitation patterns is essential to the water resources management and flooding mitigation. The precipitation patterns can vary in space and time depending upon the factors from different spatial scales such as local topological changes and macroscopic atmospheric circulation. The spatiotemporal variation of precipitation in Taiwan is significant due to its complex terrain and its location at west pacific and subtropical area, where is the boundary between the pacific ocean and Asia continent with the complex interactions among the climatic processes. This study characterizes local-scale precipitation patterns by classifying the historical space-time precipitation records. We applied the hierarchical ascending clustering method to analyze the precipitation records from 1960 to 2008 at the six rainfall stations located in Lan-yang catchment at the northeast of the island. Our results identify the four primary space-time precipitation types which may result from distinct driving forces from the changes of atmospheric variables and topology at different space-time scales. This study also presents an important application of the statistical downscaling to combine large-scale upper-air circulation with local space-time precipitation patterns.

High and Dry? Stomatal Regulation and the Water Use Efficiency of Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibt, U.; Maseyk, K. S.; Sun, W.; Lett, C.; Pivovaroff, A. L.

2016-12-01

The water use efficiency (WUE, ratio of carbon assimilated to water transpired) of vegetation plays an important role in determining the exchange of water between ecosystems and the atmosphere and thus affects the global water cycle. It also shapes the water-energy balance of ecosystems as a decrease in water fluxes may lead to an increase in surface temperature. A large number of studies have reported systematic changes in WUE from the stand to landscape scale, however, there is no general agreement on the sign and magnitude of the observed trends. The divergent responses reflect that the WUE of vegetation is shaped by a complex interplay of factors acting on a wide range of temporal scales: On diurnal to seasonal time scales, if evaporative demand is altered by atmospheric moisture or temperature, plants respond by adjusting stomatal conductance with associated changes in both transpiration and photosynthetic carbon uptake. On seasonal to interannual time scales, leaf size, structure and activity may adapt to water stress. This can alter boundary layer and mesophyll conductances, radiation profiles, and the surface energy balance. On longer time scales, the carbon-water balance of ecosystems is additionally affected by the ongoing global rise in CO2 and temperatures. Stomatal regulation is a central factor across all scales. We present new results on leaf and stand scale WUE from a range of ecosystems (arctic, boreal, semi-arid, tropical), and discuss the role of stomatal regulation on diurnal and seasonal changes in WUE in response to water stress and on potential long-term trends in WUE in response to climate change.

Cosmogenic radionuclides as a synchronisation tool - present status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muscheler, Raimund; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Mellström, Anette; Svensson, Anders; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran

2014-05-01

Changes in the flux of galactic cosmic rays into Earth's atmosphere produce variations in the production rates of cosmogenic radionuclides. The resulting globally synchronous signal in cosmogenic radionuclide records can be used to compare time scales and synchronise climate records. The most prominent example is the 14C wiggle match dating approach where variations in the atmospheric 14C concentration are used to match climate records and the tree-ring based part of the 14C calibration record. This approach can be extended to other cosmogenic radionuclide records such as 10Be time series provided that the different geochemical behaviour of 10Be and 14C is taken into account. Here we will present some recent results that illustrate the potential of using cosmogenic radionuclide records for comparing and synchronising different time scales. The focus will be on the last 50000 years where we will show examples how geomagnetic field, solar activity and unusual short-term cosmic ray changes can be used for comparing ice core, tree ring and sediment time scales. We will discuss some unexpected offsets between Greenland ice core and 14C time scale and we will examine how far back in time solar induced 10Be and 14C variations presently can be used to reliably synchronise ice core and 14C time scales.

How High Frequency Trading Affects a Market Index

PubMed Central

Kenett, Dror Y.; Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Stanley, H. Eugene; gur-Gershgoren, Gitit

2013-01-01

The relationship between a market index and its constituent stocks is complicated. While an index is a weighted average of its constituent stocks, when the investigated time scale is one day or longer the index has been found to have a stronger effect on the stocks than vice versa. We explore how this interaction changes in short time scales using high frequency data. Using a correlation-based analysis approach, we find that in short time scales stocks have a stronger influence on the index. These findings have implications for high frequency trading and suggest that the price of an index should be published on shorter time scales, as close as possible to those of the actual transaction time scale. PMID:23817553

Advances in time-scale algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stein, S. R.

1993-01-01

The term clock is usually used to refer to a device that counts a nearly periodic signal. A group of clocks, called an ensemble, is often used for time keeping in mission critical applications that cannot tolerate loss of time due to the failure of a single clock. The time generated by the ensemble of clocks is called a time scale. The question arises how to combine the times of the individual clocks to form the time scale. One might naively be tempted to suggest the expedient of averaging the times of the individual clocks, but a simple thought experiment demonstrates the inadequacy of this approach. Suppose a time scale is composed of two noiseless clocks having equal and opposite frequencies. The mean time scale has zero frequency. However if either clock fails, the time-scale frequency immediately changes to the frequency of the remaining clock. This performance is generally unacceptable and simple mean time scales are not used. First, previous time-scale developments are reviewed and then some new methods that result in enhanced performance are presented. The historical perspective is based upon several time scales: the AT1 and TA time scales of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the A.1(MEAN) time scale of the US Naval observatory (USNO), the TAI time scale of the Bureau International des Poids et Measures (BIPM), and the KAS-1 time scale of the Naval Research laboratory (NRL). The new method was incorporated in the KAS-2 time scale recently developed by Timing Solutions Corporation. The goal is to present time-scale concepts in a nonmathematical form with as few equations as possible. Many other papers and texts discuss the details of the optimal estimation techniques that may be used to implement these concepts.

Multi-time-scale hydroclimate dynamics of a regional watershed and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation: Application to the Seine river catchment, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, N.; Dieppois, B.; Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Fossa, M.; Laignel, B.; Debret, M.

2017-03-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating correlation between large and local scales, empirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: (i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and (ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the links between large and local scales were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach, which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing monthly regional hydrometeorological processes (predictand: precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector). This approach basically consisted in three steps: 1 - decomposing large-scale climate and hydrological signals (SLP field, precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, 2 - generating a statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3 - summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either precipitation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with alternating flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter/spring 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. In accordance with previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP, precipitation and streamflow on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation.

Development of internalizing problems from adolescence to emerging adulthood: Accounting for heterotypic continuity with vertical scaling.

PubMed

Petersen, Isaac T; Lindhiem, Oliver; LeBeau, Brandon; Bates, John E; Pettit, Gregory S; Lansford, Jennifer E; Dodge, Kenneth A

2018-03-01

Manifestations of internalizing problems, such as specific symptoms of anxiety and depression, can change across development, even if individuals show strong continuity in rank-order levels of internalizing problems. This illustrates the concept of heterotypic continuity, and raises the question of whether common measures might be construct-valid for one age but not another. This study examines mean-level changes in internalizing problems across a long span of development at the same time as accounting for heterotypic continuity by using age-appropriate, changing measures. Internalizing problems from age 14-24 were studied longitudinally in a community sample (N = 585), using Achenbach's Youth Self-Report (YSR) and Young Adult Self-Report (YASR). Heterotypic continuity was evaluated with an item response theory (IRT) approach to vertical scaling, linking different measures over time to be on the same scale, as well as with a Thurstone scaling approach. With vertical scaling, internalizing problems peaked in mid-to-late adolescence and showed a group-level decrease from adolescence to early adulthood, a change that would not have been seen with the approach of using only age-common items. Individuals' trajectories were sometimes different than would have been seen with the common-items approach. Findings support the importance of considering heterotypic continuity when examining development and vertical scaling to account for heterotypic continuity with changing measures. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Changes in channel morphology over human time scales [Chapter 32

Treesearch

John M. Buffington

2012-01-01

Rivers are exposed to changing environmental conditions over multiple spatial and temporal scales, with the imposed environmental conditions and response potential of the river modulated to varying degrees by human activity and our exploitation of natural resources. Watershed features that control river morphology include topography (valley slope and channel...

Scale-dependent intrinsic entropies of complex time series.

PubMed

Yeh, Jia-Rong; Peng, Chung-Kang; Huang, Norden E

2016-04-13

Multi-scale entropy (MSE) was developed as a measure of complexity for complex time series, and it has been applied widely in recent years. The MSE algorithm is based on the assumption that biological systems possess the ability to adapt and function in an ever-changing environment, and these systems need to operate across multiple temporal and spatial scales, such that their complexity is also multi-scale and hierarchical. Here, we present a systematic approach to apply the empirical mode decomposition algorithm, which can detrend time series on various time scales, prior to analysing a signal's complexity by measuring the irregularity of its dynamics on multiple time scales. Simulated time series of fractal Gaussian noise and human heartbeat time series were used to study the performance of this new approach. We show that our method can successfully quantify the fractal properties of the simulated time series and can accurately distinguish modulations in human heartbeat time series in health and disease. © 2016 The Author(s).

The effect of orthostatic stress on multiscale entropy of heart rate and blood pressure.

PubMed

Turianikova, Zuzana; Javorka, Kamil; Baumert, Mathias; Calkovska, Andrea; Javorka, Michal

2011-09-01

Cardiovascular control acts over multiple time scales, which introduces a significant amount of complexity to heart rate and blood pressure time series. Multiscale entropy (MSE) analysis has been developed to quantify the complexity of a time series over multiple time scales. In previous studies, MSE analyses identified impaired cardiovascular control and increased cardiovascular risk in various pathological conditions. Despite the increasing acceptance of the MSE technique in clinical research, information underpinning the involvement of the autonomic nervous system in the MSE of heart rate and blood pressure is lacking. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of orthostatic challenge on the MSE of heart rate and blood pressure variability (HRV, BPV) and the correlation between MSE (complexity measures) and traditional linear (time and frequency domain) measures. MSE analysis of HRV and BPV was performed in 28 healthy young subjects on 1000 consecutive heart beats in the supine and standing positions. Sample entropy values were assessed on scales of 1-10. We found that MSE of heart rate and blood pressure signals is sensitive to changes in autonomic balance caused by postural change from the supine to the standing position. The effect of orthostatic challenge on heart rate and blood pressure complexity depended on the time scale under investigation. Entropy values did not correlate with the mean values of heart rate and blood pressure and showed only weak correlations with linear HRV and BPV measures. In conclusion, the MSE analysis of heart rate and blood pressure provides a sensitive tool to detect changes in autonomic balance as induced by postural change.

Kanaka Maoli and Kamáāina Seascapes - Knowing Our Ocean Through Times of Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puniwai, N.

2017-12-01

In Hawaíi our oceans define us, we come from the ocean. Our oceans change, and we change with them, as we always have. By learning from people who are dependent on their environment, we learn how to observe and how to adapt. Through the lens of climate change, we interviewed respected ocean observers and surfers to learn about changes they have witnessed over time and the spatial scales and ocean conditions important to them. We looked at our ancient and historical texts to see what processes they recorded and the language they used to ascribe their observations, interactions and relationships to these places. Yet, we also integrate what our mechanical data sensors have recorded over recent time. By expanding our time scales of reference, knowledge sources, and collaborators, these methods teach us how our ancestors adapted and how climate change may impact our subsistence, recreation, and interactions with the environment. Managing complex seascapes requires the integration of multiple ways of knowing; strengthening our understanding of seascapes and their resiliency in this changing environment.

Anaplasma marginale superinfection attributable to pathogen strains with distinct genomic backgrounds.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Microbial strain structure is dynamic over space and time; shifts in pathogen strain structure result in changing patterns of disease. The scale of change in space and time differs markedly among pathogens depending on multiple factors including pathogen-specific mechanisms of genetic change and the...

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-05-12

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Managing the Nation's water in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Stakhiv, E.Z.

1998-01-01

Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydrological events.

Reconstructions of solar irradiance on centennial time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Dasi Espuig, Maria; Kok Leng, Yeo

Solar irradiance is the main external source of energy to Earth's climate system. The record of direct measurements covering less than 40 years is too short to study solar influence on Earth's climate, which calls for reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past with the help of appropriate models. An obvious requirement to a competitive model is its ability to reproduce observed irradiance changes, and a successful example of such a model is presented by the SATIRE family of models. As most state-of-the-art models, SATIRE assumes that irradiance changes on time scales longer than approximately a day are caused by the evolving distribution of dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface. The surface coverage by such features as a function of time is derived from solar observations. The choice of these depends on the time scale in question. Most accurate is the version of the model that employs full-disc spatially-resolved solar magnetograms and reproduces over 90% of the measured irradiance variation, including the overall decreasing trend in the total solar irradiance over the last four cycles. Since such magnetograms are only available for about four decades, reconstructions on time scales of centuries have to rely on disc-integrated proxies of solar magnetic activity, such as sunspot areas and numbers. Employing a surface flux transport model and sunspot observations as input, we have being able to produce synthetic magnetograms since 1700. This improves the temporal resolution of the irradiance reconstructions on centennial time scales. The most critical aspect of such reconstructions remains the uncertainty in the magnitude of the secular change.

Decreased resting-state brain activity complexity in schizophrenia characterized by both increased regularity and randomness.

PubMed

Yang, Albert C; Hong, Chen-Jee; Liou, Yin-Jay; Huang, Kai-Lin; Huang, Chu-Chung; Liu, Mu-En; Lo, Men-Tzung; Huang, Norden E; Peng, Chung-Kang; Lin, Ching-Po; Tsai, Shih-Jen

2015-06-01

Schizophrenia is characterized by heterogeneous pathophysiology. Using multiscale entropy (MSE) analysis, which enables capturing complex dynamics of time series, we characterized MSE patterns of blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signals across different time scales and determined whether BOLD activity in patients with schizophrenia exhibits increased complexity (increased entropy in all time scales), decreased complexity toward regularity (decreased entropy in all time scales), or decreased complexity toward uncorrelated randomness (high entropy in short time scales followed by decayed entropy as the time scale increases). We recruited 105 patients with schizophrenia with an age of onset between 18 and 35 years and 210 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers. Results showed that MSE of BOLD signals in patients with schizophrenia exhibited two routes of decreased BOLD complexity toward either regular or random patterns. Reduced BOLD complexity toward regular patterns was observed in the cerebellum and temporal, middle, and superior frontal regions, and reduced BOLD complexity toward randomness was observed extensively in the inferior frontal, occipital, and postcentral cortices as well as in the insula and middle cingulum. Furthermore, we determined that the two types of complexity change were associated differently with psychopathology; specifically, the regular type of BOLD complexity change was associated with positive symptoms of schizophrenia, whereas the randomness type of BOLD complexity was associated with negative symptoms of the illness. These results collectively suggested that resting-state dynamics in schizophrenia exhibit two routes of pathologic change toward regular or random patterns, which contribute to the differences in syndrome domains of psychosis in patients with schizophrenia. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Delineating environmental control of phytoplankton biomass and phenology in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardyna, Mathieu; Claustre, Hervé; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; D'Ovidio, Francesco; Gentili, Bernard; van Dijken, Gert; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Arrigo, Kevin R.

2017-05-01

The Southern Ocean (SO), an area highly sensitive to climate change, is currently experiencing rapid warming and freshening. Such drastic physical changes might significantly alter the SO's biological pump. For more accurate predictions of the possible evolution of this pump, a better understanding of the environmental factors controlling SO phytoplankton dynamics is needed. Here we present a satellite-based study deciphering the complex environmental control of phytoplankton biomass (PB) and phenology (PH; timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms) in the SO. We reveal that PH and PB are mostly organized in the SO at two scales: a large latitudinal scale and a regional scale. Latitudinally, a clear gradient in the timing of bloom occurrence appears tightly linked to the seasonal cycle in irradiance, with some exceptions in specific light-limited regimes (i.e., well-mixed areas). Superimposed on this latitudinal scale, zonal asymmetries, up to 3 orders of magnitude, in regional-scale PB are mainly driven by local advective and iron supply processes. These findings provide a global understanding of PB and PH in the SO, which is of fundamental interest for identifying and explaining ongoing changes as well as predicting future changes in the SO biological pump.

Dynamics of Change and Change in Dynamics

PubMed Central

Boker, Steven M.; Staples, Angela D.; Hu, Yueqin

2017-01-01

A framework is presented for building and testing models of dynamic regulation by categorizing sources of differences between theories of dynamics. A distinction is made between the dynamics of change, i.e., how a system self–regulates on a short time scale, and change in dynamics, i.e., how those dynamics may themselves change over a longer time scale. In order to clarify the categories, models are first built to estimate individual differences in equilibrium value and equilibrium change. Next, models are presented in which there are individual differences in parameters of dynamics such as frequency of fluctuations, damping of fluctuations, and amplitude of fluctuations. Finally, models for within–person change in dynamics over time are proposed. Simulations demonstrating feasibility of these models are presented and OpenMx scripts for fitting these models have been made available in a downloadable archive along with scripts to simulate data so that a researcher may test a selected models’ feasibility within a chosen experimental design. PMID:29046764

Resonant obliquity of Mars?. [climate driven by spin axis and orbit plane precession caused oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, William R.; Rudy, Donald J.

1991-01-01

The large-scale oscillations generated by the obliquity of Mars through spin-axis and orbit-plane precessions constitute basic climate system drivers with periodicities of 100,000 yrs in differential spin axis-orbit precession rates and of over 1 million yrs in amplitude modulations due to orbital-inclination changes. Attention is presently given to a third time-scale for climate change, which involves a possible spin-spin resonance and whose mechanism operates on a 10-million-yr time-scale: this effect implies an average obliquity increase for Mars of 15 deg only 5 million yrs ago, with important climatic consequences.

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest.

PubMed

Macias Fauria, Marc; Johnson, E A

2008-07-12

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire-climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire-climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire-climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.

Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

2015-04-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach basically consisted in 1- decomposing both signals (SLP field and precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis and synthesis, 2- generating one statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3- summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD ; in addition, the scale-dependent spatial patterns associated to the model matched quite well those obtained from scale-dependent composite analysis. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either prepciptation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. Further investigations would be required to address the issue of the stationarity of the large-scale/local-scale relationships and to test the capability of the multiresolution ESD model for interannual-to-interdecadal forecasting. In terms of methodological approach, further investigations may concern a fully comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the modeling to the parameter of the multiresolution approach (different families of scaling and wavelet functions used, number of coefficients/degree of smoothness, etc.).

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozendaal, Margaret A.; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Universality of accelerating change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo; Shlesinger, Michael F.

2018-03-01

On large time scales the progress of human technology follows an exponential growth trend that is termed accelerating change. The exponential growth trend is commonly considered to be the amalgamated effect of consecutive technology revolutions - where the progress carried in by each technology revolution follows an S-curve, and where the aging of each technology revolution drives humanity to push for the next technology revolution. Thus, as a collective, mankind is the 'intelligent designer' of accelerating change. In this paper we establish that the exponential growth trend - and only this trend - emerges universally, on large time scales, from systems that combine together two elements: randomness and amalgamation. Hence, the universal generation of accelerating change can be attained by systems with no 'intelligent designer'.

Measurement of stable changes of self-management skills after rehabilitation: a latent state-trait analysis of the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ™).

PubMed

Schuler, M; Musekamp, G; Bengel, J; Schwarze, M; Spanier, K; Gutenbrunner, Chr; Ehlebracht-König, I; Nolte, S; Osborne, R H; Faller, H

2014-11-01

To assess stable effects of self-management programs, measurement instruments should primarily capture the attributes of interest, for example, the self-management skills of the measured persons. However, measurements of psychological constructs are always influenced by both aspects of the situation (states) and aspects of the person (traits). This study tests whether the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ™), an instrument assessing a wide range of proximal outcomes of self-management programs, is primarily influenced by person factors instead of situational factors. Furthermore, measurement invariance over time, changes in traits and predictors of change for each heiQ™ scale were examined. Subjects were N = 580 patients with rheumatism, asthma, orthopedic conditions or inflammatory bowel disease, who filled out the heiQ™ at the beginning, the end of and 3 months after a disease-specific inpatient rehabilitation program in Germany. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to estimate latent trait-change models and test for measurement invariance in each heiQ™ scale. Coefficients of consistency, occasion specificity and reliability were computed. All scales showed scalar invariance over time. Reliability coefficients were high (0.80-0.94), and consistency coefficients (0.49-0.79) were always substantially higher than occasion specificity coefficients (0.14-0.38), indicating that the heiQ™ scales primarily capture person factors. Trait-changes with small to medium effect sizes were shown in five scales and were affected by sex, age and diagnostic group. The heiQ™ can be used to assess stable effects in important outcomes of self-management programs over time, e.g., changes in self-management skills or emotional well-being.

Novel Flood Detection and Analysis Method Using Recurrence Property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendi, Dadiyorto; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert

2016-04-01

Temporal changes in flood hazard are known to be difficult to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defence, river training, or land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Flood time series may show complex behavior that vary at a range of time scales and may cluster in time. This study focuses on the application of recurrence based data analysis techniques (recurrence plot) for understanding and quantifying spatio-temporal changes in flood hazard in Germany. The recurrence plot is known as an effective tool to visualize the dynamics of phase space trajectories i.e. constructed from a time series by using an embedding dimension and a time delay, and it is known to be effective in analyzing non-stationary and non-linear time series. The emphasis will be on the identification of characteristic recurrence properties that could associate typical dynamic behavior to certain flood situations.

Evaluating the transitional mosaic: frameworks of change from Neanderthals to Homo sapiens in eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, William; White, Dustin; Lewis, Mark; Stringer, Chris

2015-06-01

Defining varying spatial and temporal analytical scales is essential before evaluating the responses of late Neanderthals and early Homo sapiens to Abrupt Environmental Transitions (AETs) and environmental disasters for the period 130-25 ka. Recent advances in addressing the population histories and interactions (using both genetic and archaeological evidence) of Neanderthals and H. sapiens have encouraged consideration of more subtle dynamics of archaeological change. Descriptions of change based on methodologies pioneered some 160 years ago are no longer adequate to explain the patterning we now see in the record. New chronological results, using multiple dating methods, allow us to begin to unpick the spatial and temporal scales of change. Isochronic markers (such as specific volcanic eruptions) can be used to create temporal frameworks (lattices), and results from other dating techniques compared against them. A combination of chronological lattices and direct dating of diagnostic artefacts and human fossils permits us, for the first time, to have greater confidence in connecting human (recent hominin) species and their behavioural responses to environmental conditions, and in quantifying scales of change over time and space (time-transgression). The timing of innovations, particularly those in bone, antler and ivory, can be directly quantified and tested, and used to re-evaluate longstanding models of cultural change. This paper also uses these new chronologies to explore the ecologies of late Neanderthals and early H. sapiens: their population densities, mobilities, resources exploited and possible interactions. Environmental productivity estimates are used to generate new questions of potential population densities and mobilities, and thus the sensitivity of these groups to environmental perturbations. Scales and intensities of effect on environments from natural disasters and AETs (notably Heinrich Events and the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption) are defined as a scale from "proximal" to "distal," with local conditions (topographic shelter or exposure) serving to intensify or mitigate those effects.

Laboratory-Scale Simulation and Real-Time Tracking of a Microbial Contamination Event and Subsequent Shock-Chlorination in Drinking Water

PubMed Central

Besmer, Michael D.; Sigrist, Jürg A.; Props, Ruben; Buysschaert, Benjamin; Mao, Guannan; Boon, Nico; Hammes, Frederik

2017-01-01

Rapid contamination of drinking water in distribution and storage systems can occur due to pressure drop, backflow, cross-connections, accidents, and bio-terrorism. Small volumes of a concentrated contaminant (e.g., wastewater) can contaminate large volumes of water in a very short time with potentially severe negative health impacts. The technical limitations of conventional, cultivation-based microbial detection methods neither allow for timely detection of such contaminations, nor for the real-time monitoring of subsequent emergency remediation measures (e.g., shock-chlorination). Here we applied a newly developed continuous, ultra high-frequency flow cytometry approach to track a rapid pollution event and subsequent disinfection of drinking water in an 80-min laboratory scale simulation. We quantified total (TCC) and intact (ICC) cell concentrations as well as flow cytometric fingerprints in parallel in real-time with two different staining methods. The ingress of wastewater was detectable almost immediately (i.e., after 0.6% volume change), significantly changing TCC, ICC, and the flow cytometric fingerprint. Shock chlorination was rapid and detected in real time, causing membrane damage in the vast majority of bacteria (i.e., drop of ICC from more than 380 cells μl-1 to less than 30 cells μl-1 within 4 min). Both of these effects as well as the final wash-in of fresh tap water followed calculated predictions well. Detailed and highly quantitative tracking of microbial dynamics at very short time scales and for different characteristics (e.g., concentration, membrane integrity) is feasible. This opens up multiple possibilities for targeted investigation of a myriad of bacterial short-term dynamics (e.g., disinfection, growth, detachment, operational changes) both in laboratory-scale research and full-scale system investigations in practice. PMID:29085343

Radiometric & Geometric normalization of Sentinel optical data and VHR data to build-up time-series, an example in Tonga for the monitoring of mangrove health vs. climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra, Romain; Valette, Anne; Taji, Amine; Emsley, Stephen

2017-04-01

Building climate resilience (i.e. climate change adaptation or self-renew of ecosystems) or planning environment rehabilitations and nature-based solutions to address their vulnerabilities to disturbances has prerequisites: 1- identify the disorder, i.e. stresses caused by events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, heavy rains, hailstone falls, smog… or piled-up along-time such as warming, rainfalls, ocean acidification, soil salinization… and measured by trends; and 2- qualify its impact on the ecosystems, i.e. the resulting strains. Mitigation of threats is accordingly twofold, i. on locally temporal scales for protection, ii. on long scale for prevention and sustainability. For assessment and evaluation prior to design future scenarios, it requires concomitant acquisition of (a) climate data at global and local spatial scale which describe the changes at the various temporal scales of phenomena without signal aliasing, and of (b) the ecosystems' status at the scales of the forcing and of relaxation times, hysteresis lags, periodicities of orbits in chaotic systems, shifts from one attractor in ecosystems to the others, etc. Dissociating groups of timescales and spatial scales facilitates the analysis and help set-up monitoring schemes. The Sentinel-2 mission, with a revisit of the earth every few days and a 10m resolution on-ground is a good automatic spectro-analytical monitoring system because detecting changes in numerous optical & IR bands at proper spatial scales for the description of land parcels. Combined with photo-interpreted VHR data which describe the environment more crudely but with high precision of land parcels' border locations, it helps find the relationship between stress and strains to empirically understand the relationships. An example is provided for Tonga, courtesy of ESA support and ADB request, with a focus on time-series' consistency that requires radiometric and geometric normalisation of EO data sets. Methodologies have been developed in the frame of ESA programs and EC program (H2020 Co-Resyf).

Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

2013-01-01

We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect interannual changes in total recharge. These results provide insights into the possible impacts of climate change to other regional aquifer systems, and the streams they support, where discharge points represent a range of flow system scales.

Clinicians’ Perceptions of Implementation Extensiveness of 100% Tobacco Free Practices: A Longitudinal Study of New York State1

PubMed Central

de Tormes Eby, Lillian Turner; Laschober, Tanja C.

2013-01-01

In 2008, New York State required substance use disorder treatment organizations to be 100% tobacco-free. This longitudinal study examined clinicians’ perceptions of the implementation extensiveness of the tobacco-free practices approximately 10–12 months (Time 1) and 20–24 months (Time 2) post regulation and investigated whether clinicians’ commitment to change and use of provided resources at Time 1 predicts perceptions of implementation extensiveness at Time 2. Clinicians (N = 287) noted a mean implementation of 5.60 patient practices (0–10 scale), 2.33 visitor practices (0–8 scale), and 6.66 employee practices (0–12 scale) at Time 1. At Time 2, clinicians perceived a mean implementation of 5.95 patient practices (no increase from Time 1), 2.89 visitor practices (increase from Time 1), and 7.12 employee practices (no increase from Time 1). Commitment to change and use of resources positively predicted perceived implementation extensiveness of visitor and employee practices. The use of resources positively predicted implementation for patient practices. PMID:23430285

Clinicians' perceptions of implementation extensiveness of 100% tobacco free practices: a longitudinal study of New York state.

PubMed

Eby, Lillian T de Tormes; Laschober, Tanja C

2014-01-01

In 2008, the state of New York required substance use disorder treatment organizations to be 100% tobacco-free. This longitudinal study examined clinicians' perceptions of the implementation extensiveness of the tobacco-free practices approximately 10-12 months (Time 1) and 20-24 months (Time 2) post regulation and investigated whether clinicians' commitment to change and use of provided resources at Time 1 predicts perceptions of implementation extensiveness at Time 2. Clinicians (N = 287) noted a mean implementation of 5.60 patient practices (0-10 scale), 2.33 visitor practices (0-8 scale), and 6.66 employee practices (0-12 scale) at Time 1. At Time 2, clinicians perceived a mean implementation of 5.95 patient practices (no increase from Time 1), 2.89 visitor practices (increase from Time 1), and 7.12 employee practices (no increase from Time 1). Commitment to change and use of resources positively predicted perceived implementation extensiveness of visitor and employee practices. The use of resources positively predicted implementation for patient practices.

Mountain Plant Community Sentinels: AWOL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanson, G. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change. Because climatic gradients are steep on mountain slopes, the spatial response of plant communities to climate change should be compressed and easier to detect. These expectations have led to identifying mountain plant communities as sentinels for climate change. This idea has, however, been criticized. Two critiques, for alpine treeline and alpine tundra, are rehearsed and supplemented. The critique of alpine treeline as sentinel is bolstered with new model results on the confounding role of dispersal mechanisms and sensitivity to climatic volatility. In alpine tundra, for which background turnover rates have yet to be established, community composition may reflect environmental gradients only for extremes where effects of climate are most indirect. Both plant communities, while primarily determined by energy at broad scales, may respond to water as a proximate driver at local scales. These plant communities may not be in equilibrium with climate, and differently scaled time lags may mean that ongoing vegetation change may not signal ongoing climate change (or lack thereof). In both cases a double-whammy is created by scale dependence for time lags and for drivers leading to confusion, but these cases present opportunities for insights into basic ecology.

Time-scale invariance as an emergent property in a perceptron with realistic, noisy neurons

PubMed Central

Buhusi, Catalin V.; Oprisan, Sorinel A.

2013-01-01

In most species, interval timing is time-scale invariant: errors in time estimation scale up linearly with the estimated duration. In mammals, time-scale invariance is ubiquitous over behavioral, lesion, and pharmacological manipulations. For example, dopaminergic drugs induce an immediate, whereas cholinergic drugs induce a gradual, scalar change in timing. Behavioral theories posit that time-scale invariance derives from particular computations, rules, or coding schemes. In contrast, we discuss a simple neural circuit, the perceptron, whose output neurons fire in a clockwise fashion (interval timing) based on the pattern of coincidental activation of its input neurons. We show numerically that time-scale invariance emerges spontaneously in a perceptron with realistic neurons, in the presence of noise. Under the assumption that dopaminergic drugs modulate the firing of input neurons, and that cholinergic drugs modulate the memory representation of the criterion time, we show that a perceptron with realistic neurons reproduces the pharmacological clock and memory patterns, and their time-scale invariance, in the presence of noise. These results suggest that rather than being a signature of higher-order cognitive processes or specific computations related to timing, time-scale invariance may spontaneously emerge in a massively-connected brain from the intrinsic noise of neurons and circuits, thus providing the simplest explanation for the ubiquity of scale invariance of interval timing. PMID:23518297

Viscous decay of nonlinear oscillations of a spherical bubble at large Reynolds number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. R.; Wang, Q. X.

2017-08-01

The long-time viscous decay of large-amplitude bubble oscillations is considered in an incompressible Newtonian fluid, based on the Rayleigh-Plesset equation. At large Reynolds numbers, this is a multi-scaled problem with a short time scale associated with inertial oscillation and a long time scale associated with viscous damping. A multi-scaled perturbation method is thus employed to solve the problem. The leading-order analytical solution of the bubble radius history is obtained to the Rayleigh-Plesset equation in a closed form including both viscous and surface tension effects. Some important formulae are derived including the following: the average energy loss rate of the bubble system during each cycle of oscillation, an explicit formula for the dependence of the oscillation frequency on the energy, and an implicit formula for the amplitude envelope of the bubble radius as a function of the energy. Our theory shows that the energy of the bubble system and the frequency of oscillation do not change on the inertial time scale at leading order, the energy loss rate on the long viscous time scale being inversely proportional to the Reynolds number. These asymptotic predictions remain valid during each cycle of oscillation whether or not compressibility effects are significant. A systematic parametric analysis is carried out using the above formula for the energy of the bubble system, frequency of oscillation, and minimum/maximum bubble radii in terms of the Reynolds number, the dimensionless initial pressure of the bubble gases, and the Weber number. Our results show that the frequency and the decay rate have substantial variations over the lifetime of a decaying oscillation. The results also reveal that large-amplitude bubble oscillations are very sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions through large changes in the phase shift.

The Effect of Virtual Reality Distraction on Pain Relief During Dressing Changes in Children with Chronic Wounds on Lower Limbs.

PubMed

Hua, Yun; Qiu, Rong; Yao, Wen-Yan; Zhang, Qin; Chen, Xiao-Li

2015-10-01

It has been demonstrated that patients with chronic wounds experience the most pain during dressing changes. Currently, researchers focus mostly on analgesics and appropriate dressing materials to relieve pain during dressing changes of chronic wounds. However, the effect of nonpharmacologic interventions, such as virtual reality distraction, on pain management during dressing changes of pediatric chronic wounds remains poorly understood. To investigate the effect of virtual reality distraction on alleviating pain during dressing changes in children with chronic wounds on their lower limbs. A prospective randomized study. A pediatric center in a tertiary hospital. Sixty-five children, aged from 4 to 16 years, with chronic wounds on their lower limbs. Pain and anxiety scores during dressing changes were recorded by using the Wong-Baker Faces picture scale, visual analogue scale, and pain behavior scale, as well as physiological measurements including pulse rate and oxygen saturation. Time length of dressing change was recorded. Virtual reality distraction significantly relieved pain and anxiety scores during dressing changes and reduced the time length for dressing changes as compared to standard distraction methods. The use of virtual reality as a distraction tool in a pediatric ward offered superior pain reduction to children as compared to standard distractions. This device can potentially improve clinical efficiency by reducing length time for dressing changes. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Pain Management Nursing. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2016-12-01

The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

Développement mathématique appliqué à une future échelle de temps.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreucci, C.

The LPTF time section is in charge of the generation and dissemination of the French time scale (TA(F)). With the use of GPS time transfer and the replacement of the old generation of commercial caesium clocks, the quality of the timing data has changed rapidly. Consequently, the current time scale algorithm is not adapted to award a weight to the new clocks in relation with there quality. So a new algorithm has been built, with a more sensitive statistics processing. Tests carried out on real clock data covering the last few years, show improvement of the stability of the time scale.

Tracing society in climate change: Societal negotiations and physical dynamics of water under climate change conditions in the Cordillera Blanca region, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuburger, Martina; Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Maussion, Fabien; Singer, Katrin; Kaser, Georg

2017-04-01

Natural scientists observe and project changes in precipitation and temperature at different spatio-temporal scales and investigate impacts on glaciers and hydrological regimes. Simultaneously, social groups experience ecological phenomena as linked to climate change and integrate them into their understanding of nature and their logics of action, while political actors refer to scientific results as legitimization to focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies on global, national and regional/local level. However, natural and socio-political changes on various scales (regarding time and space) are not directly interlinked, but are communicated by energy and material flows, by discourses, power relations and institutional regulations. In this context, it remains still unclear how natural dynamics are (dis)entangled with societal processes in their historical dimensions and in their interrelations from global via national to regional and local scales. Considering the Cordillera Blanca region in Peru as an example, we analyze the intertwining of scales (global, national, regional, local) and spheres (natural, political, societal) to detect entanglements and disconnections of observed processes. Using the methodology of a time line, we present precipitation variability and glacier recession at different scales, estimate qualitative water availability and investigate the links to the implementation of international and national political programs on climate change adaptation in the Cordillera Blanca region focusing on water and agrarian programs. Finally, we include supposedly contradictory reports of rural population on climate change and related impacts on water availability and agricultural production to analyze the (dis)entanglement due to changing power relations and dominant discourses.

The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change

PubMed Central

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

2000-01-01

Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing. PMID:10725399

Climate change impact on the annual water balance in the northwest Florida coastal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizad, K.; Wang, D.; Alimohammadi, N.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

As the largest tributary to the Apalachicola River, the Chipola River originates in southern Alabama, flows through Florida Panhandle and ended to Gulf of Mexico. The Chipola watershed is located in an intermediate climate environment with aridity index around one. Watershed provides habitat for a number of threatened and endangered animal and plant species. However, climate change affects hydrologic cycle of Chipola River watershed at various temporal and spatial scales. Studying the effects of climate variations is of great importance for water and environmental management purposes in this catchment. This research is mainly focuses on assessing climate change impact on the partitioning pattern of rainfall from mean annual to inter-annual and to seasonal scales. At the mean annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff and evaporation assuming negligible water storage changes. Mean annual runoff is controlled by both mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. Changes in long term mean runoff caused by variations of long term mean precipitation and potential evaporation will be evaluated based on Budyko hypothesis. At the annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff, evaporation, and storage change. Inter-annual variability of runoff and evaporation are mainly affected by the changes of mean annual climate variables as well as their inter-annual variability. In order to model and evaluate each component of water balance at the annual scale, parsimonious but reliable models, are developed. Budyko hypothesis on the existing balance between available water and energy supply is reconsidered and redefined for the sub-annual time scale and reconstructed accordingly in order to accurately model seasonal hydrologic balance of the catchment. Models are built in the seasonal time frame with a focus on the role of storage change in water cycle. Then for Chipola catchment, models are parameterized based on a sufficient time span of historical data and the their coefficients are quantified. For necessary future predictions, data obtained from climate regional models starting 2040 to 2069 will be utilized. To accommodate the inherent uncertainty of climate projections, an ensemble of regional climate models will be used to assess changes of rainfall and potential evaporation. Then, the climate change impact on seasonal and annual runoff, evaporation, and water storage changes will be projected.

Change in quality of life and predictors of change among patients with multiple sclerosis: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tepavcevic, Darija Kisic; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Stojsavljevic, Nebojsa; Kostic, Jelena; Basuroski, Irena Dujmovic; Mesaros, Sarlota; Drulovic, Jelena

2014-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine the changes in the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and predictors of change among patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) at 3 and 6 years during the follow-up period. A group of 109 consecutive MS patients (McDonald's criteria) referred to the Clinic of Neurology, Belgrade, were enrolled in the study. At three time points during the study (baseline, and at 3 and 6 years during the follow-up period), the HRQoL (measured by MSQoL-54), Expanded Disability Status Scale, and Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression and Fatigue Severity Scale were assessed. During the study period, 93 patients provided both follow-up assessments. Statistically significant deterioration in the HRQoL at each subsequent time point was detected for all scales of the MSQoL-54 except for the pain and change in health scales. A higher level of education was a significant prognostic factor for a better HRQoL on the cognitive function scale throughout the entire period of observation, while marital status (single, including divorced and widowed) and increased age at the onset of MS had significant predictive values of poorer quality-of-life scores on the overall quality-of-life scale at 6-year follow-up. Higher levels of physical disability and depression at baseline were statistically significant prognostic markers for deterioration in HRQoL for the majority of MSQoL-54 scales during the entire follow-up period. Our study suggests that baseline demographic and clinical characteristics could be applied as prognostic markers of the HRQOL for patients diagnosed with MS.

Symptom Clusters Change over Time in Women Receiving Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Albusoul, Randa M.; Berger, Ann M.; Gay, Caryl L.; Janson, Susan L.; Lee, Kathryn A.

2017-01-01

Context Patients with breast cancer receiving chemotherapy (CTX) experience multiple concurrent symptoms, but little is known about how symptoms change during and after treatment. Knowledge of the identity and trajectory of symptom clusters (SCs) would enhance measurement and management. Objectives We aimed to identify SCs and their change over time from baseline to completion of breast cancer CTX. Methods SCs were identified and assessed for change in 219 women from Nebraska at four times: baseline, during cycles #3 and #4 of CTX, and one-month after finishing CTX. Ten symptoms were measured: two using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and eight using the Symptom Experience Scale. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted at each time point, then changes in SCs were evaluated at different times. Results Two SCs were identified before and after initiating CTX: Gastrointestinal (GI) and Treatment-related (Tr). The number and type of symptoms in each cluster differed over time. Clusters were dynamic during CTX with changes in the number and type of symptoms. Only one Tr SC, which consisted of fatigue, pain, and sleep disturbance, was identified after CTX completion. Conclusion SCs during CTX appear to be dynamic, changing over time from before until after CTX completion. Repeated assessments of SCs reveal symptoms that are present and when patients are most burdened and in need of additional support. PMID:28062343

Liquidity spillover in international stock markets through distinct time scales.

PubMed

Righi, Marcelo Brutti; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

This paper identifies liquidity spillovers through different time scales based on a wavelet multiscaling method. We decompose daily data from U.S., British, Brazilian and Hong Kong stock markets indices in order to calculate the scale correlation between their illiquidities. The sample is divided in order to consider non-crisis, sub-prime crisis and Eurozone crisis. We find that there are changes in correlations of distinct scales and different periods. Association in finest scales is smaller than in coarse scales. There is a rise on associations in periods of crisis. In frequencies, there is predominance for significant distinctions involving the coarsest scale, while for crises periods there is predominance for distinctions on the finest scale.

Liquidity Spillover in International Stock Markets through Distinct Time Scales

PubMed Central

Righi, Marcelo Brutti; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

2014-01-01

This paper identifies liquidity spillovers through different time scales based on a wavelet multiscaling method. We decompose daily data from U.S., British, Brazilian and Hong Kong stock markets indices in order to calculate the scale correlation between their illiquidities. The sample is divided in order to consider non-crisis, sub-prime crisis and Eurozone crisis. We find that there are changes in correlations of distinct scales and different periods. Association in finest scales is smaller than in coarse scales. There is a rise on associations in periods of crisis. In frequencies, there is predominance for significant distinctions involving the coarsest scale, while for crises periods there is predominance for distinctions on the finest scale. PMID:24465918

MO-G-BRF-06: Radiotherapy and Prompt Oxygen Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kissick, M; Campos, D; Adamson, E

Purpose: Adaptive radiotherapy requires a knowledge of the changing local tumor oxygen concentrations for times on the order of the treatment time, a time scale far shorter than cell death and proliferation. This knowledge will be needed to guide hypofractionated radiotherapy. Methods: A diffuse optical probe system was developed to spatially average over the whole interior of athymic Sprague Dawley nude mouse xenografts of human head and neck cancers. The blood volume and hemoglobin saturation was measured in real time. The quantities were measured with spectral fitting before and after 10 Gy of radiation is applied. An MRI BOLD scanmore » is acquired before and after 10 Gy that measures regional changes in R2* which is inversely proportional to oxygen availability. Simulations were performed to fit the blood oxygen dynamics and infer changes in hypoxia within the tumor. Results: The optical probe measured nearly constant blood volume and a significant drop in hemoglobin saturation of about 30% after 10 Gy over the time scale of less than 30 minutes. The averaged R2* within the tumor volume increased by 15% after the 10 Gy dose, which is consistent with the optical results. The simulations and experiments support likely dynamic metabolic changes and/or fast vasoconstrictive signals are occurring that change the oxygen concentrations significantly, but not cell death or proliferation. Conclusion: Significant oxygen changes were observed to occur within 30 minutes, coinciding with the treatment time scale. This dynamic is very important for patient specific adaptive therapy. For hypofractionated therapy, the local instantaneous oxygen content is likely the most important variable to control. The invention of a bedside device for the purpose of measuring the instantaneous response to large radiation doses would be an important step to future improvements in outcome.« less

Cross-Cultural Validation of Stages of Exercise Change Scale among Chinese College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keating, Xiaofen D.; Guan, Jianmin; Huang, Yong; Deng, Mingying; Wu, Yifeng; Qu, Shuhua

2005-01-01

The purpose of the study was to test the cross-cultural concurrent validity of the stages of exercise change scale (SECS) in Chinese college students. The original SECS was translated into Chinese (C-SECS). Students from four Chinese universities (N = 1843) participated in the study. The leisure-time exercise (LTE) questionnaire was used to…

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge to Science and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.

2009-12-01

Society is challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often subsiding and densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Faced with a trade-off between imposing the very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon today's national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations, governments and decision makers are in need of scientific support for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies for the coastal zone. Low-frequency to secular changes in LSL are the result of many interacting Earth system processes. The complexity of the Earth system makes it difficult to predict Global Sea Level (GSL) rise and, even more so, LSL changes over the next 100 to 200 years. Humans have re-engineered the planet and changed major features of the Earth surface and the atmosphere, thus ruling out extrapolation of past and current changes into the future as a reasonable approach. The risk of rapid changes in ocean circulation and ice sheet mass balance introduces the possibility of unexpected changes. Therefore, science is challenged with understanding and constraining the full range of plausible future LSL trajectories and with providing useful support for informed decisions. In the face of largely unpredictable future sea level changes, monitoring of the relevant processes and development of a forecasting service on realistic time scales is crucial as decision support. Forecasting and "early warning" for LSL rise would have to aim at decadal time scales, giving coastal managers sufficient time to react if the onset of rapid changes would require an immediate response. The social, environmental, and economic risks associated with potentially large and rapid LSL changes are enormous. Therefore, in the light of the current uncertainties and the unpredictable nature of some of the forcing processes for LSL changes, the focus of scientific decision support may have to shift from projections of LSL trajectories on century time scales to the development of models and monitoring systems for a forecasting service on decadal time scales. The requirements for such a LSL forecasting service and the current obstacles will be discussed.

An improved driving waveform reference grayscale of electrophoretic displays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li; Yi, Zichuan; Peng, Bao; Zhou, Guofu

2015-10-01

Driving waveform is an important component for gray scale display on the electrophoretic display (EPD). In the traditional driving waveform, a white reference gray scale is formed before writing a new image. However, the reflectance value can not reach agreement in each gray scale transformation. In this paper, a new driving waveform, which has a short waiting time after the formation of reference gray scale, is proposed to improve the consistency of reference gray scale. Firstly, the property of the particles in the microcapsule is analyzed and the change of the EPD reflectance after the white reference gray scale formation is studied. Secondly, the reflectance change curve is fitted by using polynomial and the duration of the waiting time is determined. Thirdly, a set of the new driving waveform is designed by using the rule of DC balance and some real E-ink commercial EPDs are used to test the performance. Experimental results show that the effect of the new driving waveform has a better performance than traditional waveforms.

Fiber Optic Sensor for Real-Time Sensing of Silica Scale Formation in Geothermal Water.

PubMed

Okazaki, Takuya; Orii, Tatsuya; Ueda, Akira; Ozawa, Akiko; Kuramitz, Hideki

2017-06-13

We present a novel fiber optic sensor for real-time sensing of silica scale formation in geothermal water. The sensor is fabricated by removing the cladding of a multimode fiber to expose the core to detect the scale-formation-induced refractive index change. A simple experimental setup was constructed to measure the transmittance response using white light as a source and a spectroscopy detector. A field test was performed on geothermal water containing 980 mg/L dissolved silica at 93 °C in Sumikawa Geothermal Power Plant, Japan. The transmittance response of the fiber sensor decreased due to the formation of silica scale on the fiber core from geothermal water. An application of this sensor in the evaluation of scale inhibitors was demonstrated. In geothermal water containing a pH modifier, the change of transmittance response decreased with pH decrease. The effectiveness of a polyelectrolyte inhibitor in prevention of silica scale formation was easily detectable using the fiber sensor in geothermal water.

The effect of electron cyclotron heating on density fluctuations at ion and electron scales in ITER baseline scenario discharges on the DIII-D tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinoni, A.; Pinsker, R. I.; Porkolab, M.; Rost, J. C.; Davis, E. M.; Burrell, K. H.; Candy, J.; Staebler, G. M.; Grierson, B. A.; McKee, G. R.; Rhodes, T. L.; The DIII-D Team

2017-12-01

Experiments simulating the ITER baseline scenario on the DIII-D tokamak show that torque-free pure electron heating, when coupled to plasmas subject to a net co-current beam torque, affects density fluctuations at electron scales on a sub-confinement time scale, whereas fluctuations at ion scales change only after profiles have evolved to a new stationary state. Modifications to the density fluctuations measured by the phase contrast imaging diagnostic (PCI) are assessed by analyzing the time evolution following the switch-off of electron cyclotron heating (ECH), thus going from mixed beam/ECH to pure neutral beam heating at fixed βN . Within 20 ms after turning off ECH, the intensity of fluctuations is observed to increase at frequencies higher than 200 kHz in contrast, fluctuations at lower frequency are seen to decrease in intensity on a longer time scale, after other equilibrium quantities have evolved. Non-linear gyro-kinetic modeling at ion and electron scales scales suggest that, while the low frequency response of the diagnostic is consistent with the dominant ITG modes being weakened by the slow-time increase in flow shear, the high frequency response is due to prompt changes to the electron temperature profile that enhance electron modes and generate a larger heat flux and an inward particle pinch. These results suggest that electron heated regimes in ITER will feature multi-scale fluctuations that might affect fusion performance via modifications to profiles.

Forecast model for great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart, W.D.

1988-01-01

An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido earthquake. In model simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Native American Students' Understanding of Geologic Time Scale: 4th-8th Grade Ojibwe Students' Understanding of Earth's Geologic History

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nam, Younkyeong; Karahan, Engin; Roehrig, Gillian

2016-01-01

Geologic time scale is a very important concept for understanding long-term earth system events such as climate change. This study examines forty-three 4th-8th grade Native American--particularly Ojibwe tribe--students' understanding of relative ordering and absolute time of Earth's significant geological and biological events. This study also…

Evaluating the uncertainty of predicting future climate time series at the hourly time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2011-12-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology is developed to generate hourly, point-scale time series for several meteorological variables, such as precipitation, cloud cover, shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The methodology uses multi-model General Circulation Model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, AWE-GEN. Probabilistic descriptions of factors of change (a measure of climate change with respect to historic conditions) are computed for several climate statistics and different aggregation times using a Bayesian approach that weights the individual GCM contributions. The Monte Carlo method is applied to sample the factors of change from their respective distributions thereby permitting the generation of time series in an ensemble fashion, which reflects the uncertainty of climate projections of future as well as the uncertainty of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology and probabilistic expressions of certainty in reproducing future climates for the periods, 2000 - 2009, 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100, using the 1962 - 1992 period as the baseline, are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The climate predictions for the period of 2000 - 2009 are tested against observations permitting to assess the reliability and uncertainties of the methodology in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support our hypothesis. That is, the change of vegetation in space and time may be better understood when modelling vegetation change as both a dynamic and multivariate process. Therefore, future research will focus on a multivariate dynamical spatio-temporal modelling approach. This ongoing research is performed within the context of the project "Global impacts of hydrological and climatic extremes on vegetation" (project acronym: SAT-EX) which is part of the Belgian research programme for Earth Observation Stereo III.

Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in long-term time series and palaeoecological records: deep sea as a test bed.

PubMed

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Doi, Hideyuki; Wei, Chih-Lin; Danovaro, Roberto; Myhre, Sarah E

2016-05-19

The link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) over long temporal scales is poorly understood. Here, we investigate biological monitoring and palaeoecological records on decadal, centennial and millennial time scales from a BEF framework by using deep sea, soft-sediment environments as a test bed. Results generally show positive BEF relationships, in agreement with BEF studies based on present-day spatial analyses and short-term manipulative experiments. However, the deep-sea BEF relationship is much noisier across longer time scales compared with modern observational studies. We also demonstrate with palaeoecological time-series data that a larger species pool does not enhance ecosystem stability through time, whereas higher abundance as an indicator of higher ecosystem functioning may enhance ecosystem stability. These results suggest that BEF relationships are potentially time scale-dependent. Environmental impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning may be much stronger than biodiversity impacts on ecosystem functioning at long, decadal-millennial, time scales. Longer time scale perspectives, including palaeoecological and ecosystem monitoring data, are critical for predicting future BEF relationships on a rapidly changing planet. © 2016 The Author(s).

Development of Porosity Measurement Method in Shale Gas Reservoir Rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siswandani, Alita; Nurhandoko, BagusEndar B.

2016-08-01

The pore scales have impacts on transport mechanisms in shale gas reservoirs. In this research, digital helium porosity meter is used for porosity measurement by considering real condition. Accordingly it is necessary to obtain a good approximation for gas filled porosity. Shale has the typical effective porosity that is changing as a function of time. Effective porosity values for three different shale rocks are analyzed by this proposed measurement. We develop the new measurement method for characterizing porosity phenomena in shale gas as a time function by measuring porosity in a range of minutes using digital helium porosity meter. The porosity of shale rock measured in this experiment are free gas and adsorbed gas porosoty. The pressure change in time shows that porosity of shale contains at least two type porosities: macro scale porosity (fracture porosity) and fine scale porosity (nano scale porosity). We present the estimation of effective porosity values by considering Boyle-Gay Lussaac approximation and Van der Waals approximation.

Bi-stage time evolution of nano-morphology on inductively coupled plasma etched fused silica surface caused by surface morphological transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiaolong; Zhang, Lijuan; Bai, Yang; Liu, Ying; Liu, Zhengkun; Qiu, Keqiang; Liao, Wei; Zhang, Chuanchao; Yang, Ke; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Yilan; Yuan, Xiaodong

2017-07-01

In this work, we experimentally investigate the surface nano-roughness during the inductively coupled plasma etching of fused silica, and discover a novel bi-stage time evolution of surface nano-morphology. At the beginning, the rms roughness, correlation length and nano-mound dimensions increase linearly and rapidly with etching time. At the second stage, the roughening process slows down dramatically. The switch of evolution stage synchronizes with the morphological change from dual-scale roughness comprising long wavelength underlying surface and superimposed nano-mounds to one scale of nano-mounds. A theoretical model based on surface morphological change is proposed. The key idea is that at the beginning, etched surface is dual-scale, and both larger deposition rate of etch inhibitors and better plasma etching resistance at the surface peaks than surface valleys contribute to the roughness development. After surface morphology transforming into one-scale, the difference of plasma resistance between surface peaks and valleys vanishes, thus the roughening process slows down.

[Sensitivity to change of questionnaires measuring subjective health--results of a prospective comparative study].

PubMed

Igl, W; Zwingmann, C; Faller, H

2006-08-01

Questionnaires measuring patients' subjective health or health-related quality of life are indispensable tools for the evaluation of effects revealed by intervention studies in the field of medical rehabilitation. These patient-reported outcomes should appropriately reflect change over time. Unfortunately, "sensitivity to change" has so far not been adequately examined for German health-related quality of life questionnaires, especially not in a comparative way. Therefore, indices of sensitivity to change for three widespread generic assessment tools have been determined: IRES-3, SF-36, scales of the SCL-90-R. A prospective comparative study was conducted in n = 1145 inpatients with orthopaedic/rheumatologic and cardiac diseases from 16 rehabilitation clinics. All patients received usual care. Their subjective health-status was assessed at two to four weeks before admission (t0), admission (t1), discharge (t2), and three months after discharge (t3). At each time point, they completed the IRES-3, SF-36, and relevant scales of the SCL-90-R. For the time interval t1-t2, Guyatt's responsiveness index (GRI) was calculated and compared across scales and instruments. Virtually all GRI coefficients for scales and aggregated scores, respectively, reached statistical significance. With respect to the GRI distributions of the diagnostic groups, most coefficients were located in a middle to upper range. While the results for the scales do not clearly indicate which assessment instrument should be preferred, GRI coefficients for higher aggregated scores suggest the IRES-3 to be most sensitive to change. These results can be helpful in selecting a health-related quality of life instrument or certain subscales for evaluation studies in the field of medical rehabilitation.

Tree Circumference Dynamics in Four Forests Characterized Using Automated Dendrometer Bands

PubMed Central

McMahon, Sean M.; Detto, Matteo; Lutz, James A.; Davies, Stuart J.; Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.

2016-01-01

Stem diameter is one of the most commonly measured attributes of trees, forming the foundation of forest censuses and monitoring. Changes in tree stem circumference include both irreversible woody stem growth and reversible circumference changes related to water status, yet these fine-scale dynamics are rarely leveraged to understand forest ecophysiology and typically ignored in plot- or stand-scale estimates of tree growth and forest productivity. Here, we deployed automated dendrometer bands on 12–40 trees at four different forested sites—two temperate broadleaf deciduous, one temperate conifer, and one tropical broadleaf semi-deciduous—to understand how tree circumference varies on time scales of hours to months, how these dynamics relate to environmental conditions, and whether the structure of these variations might introduce substantive error into estimates of woody growth. Diurnal stem circumference dynamics measured over the bark commonly—but not consistently—exhibited daytime shrinkage attributable to transpiration-driven changes in stem water storage. The amplitude of this shrinkage was significantly correlated with climatic variables (daily temperature range, vapor pressure deficit, and radiation), sap flow and evapotranspiration. Diurnal variations were typically <0.5 mm circumference in amplitude and unlikely to be of concern to most studies of tree growth. Over time scales of multiple days, the bands captured circumference increases in response to rain events, likely driven by combinations of increased stem water storage and bark hydration. Particularly at the tropical site, these rain responses could be quite substantial, ranging up to 1.5 mm circumference expansion within 48 hours following a rain event. We conclude that over-bark measurements of stem circumference change sometimes correlate with but have limited potential for directly estimating daily transpiration, but that they can be valuable on time scales of days to weeks for characterizing changes in stem growth and hydration. PMID:28030646

Intra-individual gait patterns across different time-scales as revealed by means of a supervised learning model using kernel-based discriminant regression.

PubMed

Horst, Fabian; Eekhoff, Alexander; Newell, Karl M; Schöllhorn, Wolfgang I

2017-01-01

Traditionally, gait analysis has been centered on the idea of average behavior and normality. On one hand, clinical diagnoses and therapeutic interventions typically assume that average gait patterns remain constant over time. On the other hand, it is well known that all our movements are accompanied by a certain amount of variability, which does not allow us to make two identical steps. The purpose of this study was to examine changes in the intra-individual gait patterns across different time-scales (i.e., tens-of-mins, tens-of-hours). Nine healthy subjects performed 15 gait trials at a self-selected speed on 6 sessions within one day (duration between two subsequent sessions from 10 to 90 mins). For each trial, time-continuous ground reaction forces and lower body joint angles were measured. A supervised learning model using a kernel-based discriminant regression was applied for classifying sessions within individual gait patterns. Discernable characteristics of intra-individual gait patterns could be distinguished between repeated sessions by classification rates of 67.8 ± 8.8% and 86.3 ± 7.9% for the six-session-classification of ground reaction forces and lower body joint angles, respectively. Furthermore, the one-on-one-classification showed that increasing classification rates go along with increasing time durations between two sessions and indicate that changes of gait patterns appear at different time-scales. Discernable characteristics between repeated sessions indicate continuous intrinsic changes in intra-individual gait patterns and suggest a predominant role of deterministic processes in human motor control and learning. Natural changes of gait patterns without any externally induced injury or intervention may reflect continuous adaptations of the motor system over several time-scales. Accordingly, the modelling of walking by means of average gait patterns that are assumed to be near constant over time needs to be reconsidered in the context of these findings, especially towards more individualized and situational diagnoses and therapy.

Milankovitch wobble?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, R. N.; Thissen, C.; Kirschvink, J. L.; Schrag, D. P.; Montanari, A.; Coccioni, R.; Slotznick, S. P.; Yamazaki, T.; Penserini, B. D.; Abrahams, J. N. H.; Cruz-Heredia, M.; Evans, D. A.

2015-12-01

High-resolution paleomagnetism of Cretaceous-aged limestone in Italy reveals evidence for a previously unrecognized ~10˚ directional variation, or "wobble", of either the geographic or magnetic pole on a 106-year, "Milankovitch" time scale. Ten ~1 million year (Myr) wobbles of magnetic inclination can be identified and correlated across Italy from 87-74 Myr ago, potentially refining the global polarity time scale and seafloor spreading rates. Milankovitch wobble is an omnipresent geophysical process that represents, irrespective of its mechanism, a new chronometer for age calibration with paleomagnetism. If Milankovitch wobble is interpreted as a geomagnetic artifact—the long-considered but still unproven idea that astronomical variations influence the geodynamo—the geocentric-axial dipole hypothesis would only be viable when averaged over time scales 100 times greater than currently thought, making present-day geocentricity largely coincidental. If interpreted as true geographic change, Milankovitch wobble implies an unrecognized, rapid time scale (~10˚ Myr-1) of true polar wander, possibly due to ice sheet dynamics driven by the 1.2 Myr modulation of Earth's rotational obliquity. Stable isotope data co-vary with the Milankovitch wobble, possibly favoring the polar wander mechanism that predicts rapid environmental change where the geomagnetic artifact hypothesis does not.

Digital signal processing techniques for pitch shifting and time scaling of audio signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buś, Szymon; Jedrzejewski, Konrad

2016-09-01

In this paper, we present the techniques used for modifying the spectral content (pitch shifting) and for changing the time duration (time scaling) of an audio signal. A short introduction gives a necessary background for understanding the discussed issues and contains explanations of the terms used in the paper. In subsequent sections we present three different techniques appropriate both for pitch shifting and for time scaling. These techniques use three different time-frequency representations of a signal, namely short-time Fourier transform (STFT), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and constant-Q transform (CQT). The results of simulation studies devoted to comparison of the properties of these methods are presented and discussed in the paper.

Atmospheric CO2 variations on millennial-scale during MIS 6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Jinhwa; Grilli, Roberto; Chappellaz, Jérôme; Teste, Grégory; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Schmidely, Loïc; Schmitt, Jochen; Stocker, Thomas; Fischer, Hubertus

2017-04-01

Understanding natural carbon cycle / climate feedbacks on various time scales is highly important for predicting future climate changes. Paleoclimate records of Antarctic temperatures, relative sea level and foraminiferal isotope and pollen records in sediment cores from the Portuguese margin have shown climate variations on millennial time scale over the Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS 6; from approximately 135 to 190 kyr BP). These proxy data suggested iceberg calving in the North Atlantic result in cooling in the Northern hemisphere and warming in Antarctica by changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is explained by a bipolar see-saw trend in the ocean (Margari et al., 2010). Atmospheric CO2 reconstruction from Antarctic ice cores can provide key information on how atmospheric CO2 concentrations are linked to millennial-scale climate changes. However, existing CO2 records cannot be used to address this relationship because of the lack of suitable temporal resolution. In this work, we will present a new CO2 record with an improved time resolution, obtained from the Dome C ice core (75˚ 06'S, 123˚ 24'E) spanning the MIS 6 period, using dry extraction methods. We will examine millennial-scale features in atmospheric CO2, and their possible links with other proxies covering MIS 6. Margari, V., Skinner, L. C., Tzedakis, P. C., Ganopolski, A., Vautravers, M., and Shackleton, N. J.: The nature of millennial scale climate variability during the past two glacial periods, Nat.Geosci., 3, 127-131, 2010.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

PubMed

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A P; Merz, Bruno; Arheimer, Berit; Aronica, Giuseppe T; Bilibashi, Ardian; Bonacci, Ognjen; Borga, Marco; Čanjevac, Ivan; Castellarin, Attilio; Chirico, Giovanni B; Claps, Pierluigi; Fiala, Károly; Frolova, Natalia; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Gül, Ali; Hannaford, Jamie; Harrigan, Shaun; Kireeva, Maria; Kiss, Andrea; Kjeldsen, Thomas R; Kohnová, Silvia; Koskela, Jarkko J; Ledvinka, Ondrej; Macdonald, Neil; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Mediero, Luis; Merz, Ralf; Molnar, Peter; Montanari, Alberto; Murphy, Conor; Osuch, Marzena; Ovcharuk, Valeryia; Radevski, Ivan; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José L; Sauquet, Eric; Šraj, Mojca; Szolgay, Jan; Viglione, Alberto; Volpi, Elena; Wilson, Donna; Zaimi, Klodian; Živković, Nenad

2017-08-11

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

PubMed

Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

2017-11-30

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Change of Multifractal Thermal Characteristics in the Western Philippine Sea Upper Layer During Internal Wave-Soliton Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

where H is the scaling exponent , or called the Hurst exponent . In 1941, Kolmogorov suggested that the velocity increment in high-Reynolds number...turbulent flows should scale with the mean (time-averaged) energy dissipation and the separation length scale. The Hurst exponent H is equal to 1/3. For...the internal solitons change the power exponent of the power spectra drastically especially in the low wave number domain; break down the power law

Grasping time scales from galactic life cycles to personal life projects at a linear scale of 1 mm per 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm Jacobsen, Bo

2010-05-01

The ambition is to make the citizen (i.e. pupil/student/scholar/voter/journalist/politician) comprehend better and more scientifically all time scales from the lifespan of the universe to the personal life project by a consistent geographical mapping of time at a scale of 1 mm per 100 years. The processes which change earth systems like life, climate, topography and plate tectonics operate at very different timescales. The understanding of these systems is essential not only for students and scholars of earth science but also for pupils, voters and politicians who make decisions of possibly significant consequence to climate and biodiversity not only for our generation but for thousands or even millions of years ahead. With a consistent linear mapping of time to a scale of 1 millimetre per 100 years, historical time (

Multiple time scale analysis of pressure oscillations in solid rocket motors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Waqas; Maqsood, Adnan; Riaz, Rizwan

2018-03-01

In this study, acoustic pressure oscillations for single and coupled longitudinal acoustic modes in Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) are investigated using Multiple Time Scales (MTS) method. Two independent time scales are introduced. The oscillations occur on fast time scale whereas the amplitude and phase changes on slow time scale. Hopf bifurcation is employed to investigate the properties of the solution. The supercritical bifurcation phenomenon is observed for linearly unstable system. The amplitude of the oscillations result from equal energy gain and loss rates of longitudinal acoustic modes. The effect of linear instability and frequency of longitudinal modes on amplitude and phase of oscillations are determined for both single and coupled modes. For both cases, the maximum amplitude of oscillations decreases with the frequency of acoustic mode and linear instability of SRM. The comparison of analytical MTS results and numerical simulations demonstrate an excellent agreement.

Antarctic lakes suggest millennial reorganizations of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation

PubMed Central

Hall, Brenda L.; Denton, George H.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Hendy, Chris H.; Henderson, Gideon M.

2010-01-01

The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes. PMID:21115838

Antarctic lakes suggest millennial reorganizations of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

PubMed

Hall, Brenda L; Denton, George H; Fountain, Andrew G; Hendy, Chris H; Henderson, Gideon M

2010-12-14

The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes.

Time-variable stress transfer across a megathrust from seismic to Wilson cycle scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenau, Matthias; Angiboust, Samuel; Moreno, Marcos; Schurr, Bernd; Oncken, Onno

2013-04-01

During the lifetime of a convergent plate margin stress transfer across the plate interface (a megathrust) can be expected to vary at multiple timescales. At short time scales (years to decades), a subduction megathrust interface appears coupled (accumulating shear stress) at shallow depth (seismogenic zone <350°C) in a laterally heterogeneous fashion. Highly coupled areas are prerequisite to areas of large slip (asperities) during future earthquakes but the correlation is rarely unequivocal suggesting that the coupling pattern is transient during the interseismic period. As temperature, structure and material properties are unlike to change at short time scales as well as at short distance along strike, fluid pressure change is invoked as the prime agent of lateral and time-variable stress transfer at short time (seismic cycle) scale and beyond. On longer time scales (up to Wilson cycles), additional agents of time-variable stress change are discussed. Shear tests using velocity weakening rock analogue material suggest that in a conditionally stable regime the effective normal load controls both the geodetic and the seismic coupling (fraction of convergence velocity accommodated by interseismic backslip/seismic slip). Accordingly seismic coupling decreases from 80% to 20% as the pore fluid pressure increases from hydrostatic to near-lithostatic. Moreover, the experiments demonstrate that at sub-seismic cycle scale the geodetic coupling (locking) is not only proportional to effective normal load but also to relative shear stress. For areas of near complete stress drop locking might systematically decrease over the interseismic period from >80-95 % shortly after an earthquake to backslip at significant fractions of plate convergence rate (<5-45 % locking) later in the seismic cycle. If we allow pore fluid pressures to change at sub-seismic cycle scale a single location along a megathrust may thus appear fully locked after an earthquake while fully unlocked before an earthquake. The mechanisms and timescales of fluid pressure changes along a megathrust are yet to be explored but a valid hypothesis seems to be that non-volcanic tremor and slow slip below the seismogenic zone represent short term episodes of metamorphic fluid infiltration into the shallow megathrust. A megathrust fault valve mechanism clocked by the greatest earthquakes then accounts for cyclic fluid pressure build up and drainage at sub-seismic cycle scale. As pore pressure dynamics are controlled primarily by permeability which in turn is controlled by structure and material properties, then more long term coupling transients associated with structural evolution of the plate margin can be implied. Fluid controlled transients might interfere with transients and secular trends resulting from changes in material strength and plate tectonic forces over the Wilson cycle resulting in a multispectral stress-transfer pattern associated with convergent margin evolution. Because of the viscous damping effect of the underlying asthenosphere, however, only longterm transients (periods >1-10 ka) are transmitted into the engaged plates. We therefore speculate that the multispectral nature of stress transfer across a megathrust filtered through the asthenosphere explains transient fault activity in some intraplate settings.

High-resolution time-frequency representation of EEG data using multi-scale wavelets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yang; Cui, Wei-Gang; Luo, Mei-Lin; Li, Ke; Wang, Lina

2017-09-01

An efficient time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) modelling scheme that expands the time-varying parameters onto the multi-scale wavelet basis functions is presented for modelling nonstationary signals and with applications to time-frequency analysis (TFA) of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In the new parametric modelling framework, the time-dependent parameters of the TVAR model are locally represented by using a novel multi-scale wavelet decomposition scheme, which can allow the capability to capture the smooth trends as well as track the abrupt changes of time-varying parameters simultaneously. A forward orthogonal least square (FOLS) algorithm aided by mutual information criteria are then applied for sparse model term selection and parameter estimation. Two simulation examples illustrate that the performance of the proposed multi-scale wavelet basis functions outperforms the only single-scale wavelet basis functions or Kalman filter algorithm for many nonstationary processes. Furthermore, an application of the proposed method to a real EEG signal demonstrates the new approach can provide highly time-dependent spectral resolution capability.

Cloud-based computation for accelerating vegetation mapping and change detection at regional to national scales

Treesearch

Matthew J. Gregory; Zhiqiang Yang; David M. Bell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean Healey; Janet L. Ohmann; Heather M. Roberts

2015-01-01

Mapping vegetation and landscape change at fine spatial scales is needed to inform natural resource and conservation planning, but such maps are expensive and time-consuming to produce. For Landsat-based methodologies, mapping efforts are hampered by the daunting task of manipulating multivariate data for millions to billions of pixels. The advent of cloud-based...

The impact of sampling, PCR, and sequencing replication on discerning changes in drinking water bacterial community over diurnal time-scales.

PubMed

Bautista-de Los Santos, Quyen Melina; Schroeder, Joanna L; Blakemore, Oliver; Moses, Jonathan; Haffey, Mark; Sloan, William; Pinto, Ameet J

2016-03-01

High-throughput and deep DNA sequencing, particularly amplicon sequencing, is being increasingly utilized to reveal spatial and temporal dynamics of bacterial communities in drinking water systems. Whilst the sampling and methodological biases associated with PCR and sequencing have been studied in other environments, they have not been quantified for drinking water. These biases are likely to have the greatest effect on the ability to characterize subtle spatio-temporal patterns influenced by process/environmental conditions. In such cases, intra-sample variability may swamp any underlying small, systematic variation. To evaluate this, we undertook a study with replication at multiple levels including sampling sites, sample collection, PCR amplification, and high throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA amplicons. The variability inherent to the PCR amplification and sequencing steps is significant enough to mask differences between bacterial communities from replicate samples. This was largely driven by greater variability in detection of rare bacteria (relative abundance <0.01%) across PCR/sequencing replicates as compared to replicate samples. Despite this, we captured significant changes in bacterial community over diurnal time-scales and find that the extent and pattern of diurnal changes is specific to each sampling location. Further, we find diurnal changes in bacterial community arise due to differences in the presence/absence of the low abundance bacteria and changes in the relative abundance of dominant bacteria. Finally, we show that bacterial community composition is significantly different across sampling sites for time-periods during which there are typically rapid changes in water use. This suggests hydraulic changes (driven by changes in water demand) contribute to shaping the bacterial community in bulk drinking water over diurnal time-scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

PubMed

Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

2014-06-01

When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Role of Time-Scales in Socio-hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2016-04-01

Much of the interest in hydrological modeling in the past decades revolved around resolving spatial variability. With the rapid changes brought about by human impacts on the hydrologic cycle, there is now an increasing need to refocus on time dependency. We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, in which every part of the system including human systems, co-evolve, albeit at different rates. The resulting coupled human-nature system is framed as a dynamical system, characterized by interactions of fast and slow time scales and feedbacks between environmental and social processes. This gives rise to emergent phenomena such as the levee effect, adaptation to change and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system in a dynamic way. The co-evolutionary approach differs from the traditional view of water resource systems analysis as it allows for path dependence, multiple equilibria, lock-in situations and emergent phenomena. The approach may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesise the observed dynamics of different case studies. Future research opportunities include the study of how changes in human values are connected to human-water interactions, historical analyses of trajectories of system co-evolution in individual places and comparative analyses of contrasting human-water systems in different climate and socio-economic settings. Reference Sivapalan, M. and G. Blöschl (2015) Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water. Water Resour. Res., 51, 6988-7022, doi:10.1002/2015WR017896.

Multiscale Modeling of Human-Water Interactions: The Role of Time-Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloeschl, G.; Sivapalan, M.

2015-12-01

Much of the interest in hydrological modeling in the past decades revolved around resolving spatial variability. With the rapid changes brought about by human impacts on the hydrologic cycle, there is now an increasing need to refocus on time dependency. We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, in which every part of the system including human systems, co-evolve, albeit at different rates. The resulting coupled human-nature system is framed as a dynamical system, characterized by interactions of fast and slow time scales and feedbacks between environmental and social processes. This gives rise to emergent phenomena such as the levee effect, adaptation to change and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system in a dynamic way. The co-evolutionary approach differs from the traditional view of water resource systems analysis as it allows for path dependence, multiple equilibria, lock-in situations and emergent phenomena. The approach may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesise the observed dynamics of different case studies. Future research opportunities include the study of how changes in human values are connected to human-water interactions, historical analyses of trajectories of system co-evolution in individual places and comparative analyses of contrasting human-water systems in different climate and socio-economic settings. Reference Sivapalan, M. and G. Blöschl (2015) Time Scale Interactions and the Co-evolution of Humans and Water. Water Resour. Res., 51, in press.

Rotation and scale change invariant point pattern relaxation matching by the Hopfield neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Nong; Zhang, Tianxu

1997-12-01

Relaxation matching is one of the most relevant methods for image matching. The original relaxation matching technique using point patterns is sensitive to rotations and scale changes. We improve the original point pattern relaxation matching technique to be invariant to rotations and scale changes. A method that makes the Hopfield neural network perform this matching process is discussed. An advantage of this is that the relaxation matching process can be performed in real time with the neural network's massively parallel capability to process information. Experimental results with large simulated images demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the method to perform point patten relaxation matching invariant to rotations and scale changes and the method to perform this matching by the Hopfield neural network. In addition, we show that the method presented can be tolerant to small random error.

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

Evaluation of Hydrologic and Meteorological Impacts on Dengue Fever Incidences in Southern Taiwan using Time- Frequency Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Christina; Yeh, Ting-Gu

2017-04-01

Extreme weather events are occurring more frequently as a result of climate change. Recently dengue fever has become a serious issue in southern Taiwan. It may have characteristic temporal scales that can be identified. Some researchers have hypothesized that dengue fever incidences are related to climate change. This study applies time-frequency analysis to time series data concerning dengue fever and hydrologic and meteorological variables. Results of three time-frequency analytical methods - the Hilbert Huang transform (HHT), the Wavelet Transform (WT) and the Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) are compared and discussed. A more effective time-frequency analysis method will be identified to analyze relevant time series data. The most influential time scales of hydrologic and meteorological variables that are associated with dengue fever are determined. Finally, the linkage between hydrologic/meteorological factors and dengue fever incidences can be established.

Contrasting scaling properties of interglacial and glacial climates

PubMed Central

Shao, Zhi-Gang; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

2016-01-01

Understanding natural climate variability is essential for assessments of climate change. This is reflected in the scaling properties of climate records. The scaling exponents of the interglacial and the glacial climates are fundamentally different. The Holocene record is monofractal, with a scaling exponent H∼0.7. On the contrary, the glacial record is multifractal, with a significantly higher scaling exponent H∼1.2, indicating a longer persistence time and stronger nonlinearities in the glacial climate. The glacial climate is dominated by the strong multi-millennial Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events influencing the long-time correlation. However, by separately analysing the last glacial maximum lacking DO events, here we find the same scaling for that period as for the full glacial period. The unbroken scaling thus indicates that the DO events are part of the natural variability and not externally triggered. At glacial time scales, there is a scale break to a trivial scaling, contrasting the DO events from the similarly saw-tooth-shaped glacial cycles. PMID:26980084

Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bretherton, Francis; Dickinson, Robert E.; Fung, Inez; Moore, Berrien, III; Prather, Michael; Running, Steven W.; Tiessen, Holm

1992-01-01

The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models that describe the exchange of water, energy, and biogenic trace gases between the vegetation and the atmosphere at fine time scales. There does not appear to be any obvious way to allow direct reciprocal coupling of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's), which inherently run with fine time steps, to ecosystem or successional models, which have coarse temporal resolution, without the interposition of physiological canopy models. This is equally true for biogeochemical models of the exchange of carbon dioxide and trace gases. This coupling across time scales is nontrivial and sets the focus for the modeling strategy.

Functional mental capacity, treatment as usual and time: magnitude of change in secure hospital patients with major mental illness.

PubMed

Dornan, Julieanne; Kennedy, Miriam; Garland, Jackie; Rutledge, Emer; Kennedy, Harry G

2015-10-14

Decision making ability can change with time, depending on mental or physical health. Little is known about the factors that determine this change and the relationship of capacity to time. As a pilot for studies using functional mental capacities as an outcome measure, we sought to quantify this relationship measuring change over time using competence assessment tools, and rating scales for symptoms and global function. We assessed 37 inpatients in a secure psychiatric hospital. All patients met the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders-fourth edition and International classification of diseases, 10th edition criteria for an Axis 1 mental illness, all with psychosis. Patients were interviewed twice a mean of 323 days apart (median 176 days range 17-1221 days). The MacArthur competence assessment tools for consent to treatment (MacCAT-T) and fitness to plead (MacCAT-FP) were used to quantify functional capacity along with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and global assessment of function (GAF) scale. A comparison was also made between those patients prescribed clozapine in comparison to other antipsychotics. The number judged by treating psychiatrists to lack capacity either to make a treatment choice or to plead in court fell from 35 to 8%. Change was greatest for those admitted within the previous 9 months. The measures of capacity improved between time 1 and time 2 for both consent to treatment and fitness to plead. The measures of capacity improved with positive symptoms within the PANSS and with GAF scores. Those with shorter lengths of stay at baseline had the greatest improvements in the MacCAT-FP scores. Effect sizes were medium or large (0.3-0.7+). As expected, patients prescribed clozapine had larger changes in functional mental capacities and larger effect sizes than those prescribed other psychotropics. The results show a strong relationship between the clinicians' assessment of capacity and structured rating scales. We have shown that there is an improvement in capacity scores with time. More research is needed to compare the effect of treatment on capacity at fixed time intervals. It would also be helpful to look at a more general patient population.

Drought and Heat Waves: The Role of SST and Land Surface Feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. At the shortest time scales it is often associated with heat waves that last only several weeks to a few months but nevertheless can have profound detrimental impacts on society (e.g., heat-related impacts on human health, desiccation of croplands, increased fire hazard), while at the longest time scales it can extend over decades and can lead to long term structural changes in many aspects of society (e.g., agriculture, water resources, wetlands, tourism, population shifts). There is now considerable evidence that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a leading role in the development of drought world-wide, especially at seasonal and longer time scales, though land-atmosphere feedbacks can also play an important role. At shorter (subseasonal) time scales, SSTs are less important, but land feedbacks can play a critical role in maintaining and amplifying the atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves and short-term droughts. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation and temperature variations on subseasonal to centennial time scales. This includes an assessment of predictability, prediction skill, and user needs at all time scales.

What You See Depends on Your Point of View: Comparison of Greenness Indices Across Spatial and Temporal Scales and What That Means for Mule Deer Migration and Fitness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. W.; Chong, G.; Steltzer, H.; Aikens, E.; Morisette, J. T.; Talbert, C.; Talbert, M.; Shory, R.; Krienert, J. M.; Gurganus, D.

2015-12-01

Climate change models for the north­ern Rocky Mountains predict warming and changes in water availability that may alter vegetation. Changes to vegetation may include timing of plant life-history events, or phenology, such as green-up, flower­ing, and senescence. These changes could make forage available earlier in the growing season, but shifts in phenol­ogy may also result in earlier senescence (die-off or dormancy) and reduced overall production. Greenness indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are regularly used to quantify greenness over large areas using remotely sensed reflectance data. The timing and scale of current satellite data, however, may be insufficient to capture fine-scale differences in phenology that are important indicators of habitat quality. The Wyoming Range Mule Deer herd is one of the largest in the west but it declined precipitously in the early 1990s and has not recovered. Accurate measurement of greenness over space and time would allow managers to better understand the role of plant phenology and productivity in mule deer population dynamics, for example. To connect spatial and temporal patterns of plant productivity with habitat quality, we compare greenness patterns (MODIS data) with migratory mule deer movement (GPS collars). Sagebrush systems provide winter habitat for mule deer. To understand sagebrush phenology as an indicator of productivity, we constructed NDVI time series and compared dates of phenological stages and magnitudes of greenness from three perspectives: at-surface/species-specific (mantis sensors: downward looking, <1m above vegetation); near surface/site-specific (PhenoCam: oblique, 2m); and satellite/landscape-scale (varied platforms). Greenness indices from these sensors contribute unique insights to understanding vegetation phenology, snow cover and reflectance. Understanding phenology and productivity at multiple scales can help guide resource management decisions related to habitat quality, and evaluate what remotely sensed phenology measurements mean on the ground. Monitoring changes in phenology and productivity over the long-term can provide insight into ecosystem responses to climate change.

Identifying Changes of Complex Flood Dynamics with Recurrence Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendi, D.; Merz, B.; Marwan, N.

2016-12-01

Temporal changes in flood hazard system are known to be difficult to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include complex processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defense, river training, or land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Flood time series may show complex behavior that vary at a range of time scales and may cluster in time. Moreover hydrological time series (i.e. discharge) are often subject to measurement errors, such as rating curve error especially in the case of extremes where observation are actually derived through extrapolation. This study focuses on the application of recurrence based data analysis techniques (recurrence plot) for understanding and quantifying spatio-temporal changes in flood hazard in Germany. The recurrence plot is known as an effective tool to visualize the dynamics of phase space trajectories i.e. constructed from a time series by using an embedding dimension and a time delay, and it is known to be effective in analyzing non-stationary and non-linear time series. Sensitivity of the common measurement errors and noise on recurrence analysis will also be analyzed and evaluated against conventional methods. The emphasis will be on the identification of characteristic recurrence properties that could associate typical dynamic to certain flood events.

Modeling cell-substrate de-adhesion dynamics under fluid shear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maan, Renu; Rani, Garima; Menon, Gautam I.; Pullarkat, Pramod A.

2018-07-01

Changes in cell-substrate adhesion are believed to signal the onset of cancer metastasis, but such changes must be quantified against background levels of intrinsic heterogeneity between cells. Variations in cell-substrate adhesion strengths can be probed through biophysical measurements of cell detachment from substrates upon the application of an external force. Here, we investigate, theoretically and experimentally, the detachment of cells adhered to substrates when these cells are subjected to fluid shear. We present a theoretical framework within which we calculate the fraction of detached cells as a function of shear stress for fast ramps as well as the decay in this fraction at fixed shear stress as a function of time. Using HEK and 3T3 fibroblast cells as experimental model systems, we extract characteristic force scales for cell adhesion as well as characteristic detachment times. We estimate force-scales of  ∼500 pN associated to a single focal contact, and characteristic time-scales of s representing cell-spread-area dependent mean first passage times to the detached state at intermediate values of the shear stress. Variations in adhesion across cell types are especially prominent when cell detachment is probed by applying a time-varying shear stress. These methods can be applied to characterizing changes in cell adhesion in a variety of contexts, including metastasis.

Dynamic Landscapes and Sea Level Change in Human Evolution and Dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, G. C.; Devès, M. H.; Bailey, G.; Inglis, R.; Williams, M.

2012-12-01

Archaeological studies of human settlement in its wider landscape setting usually focus on climate change as the principal environmental driver of change in the physical features of the landscape, even on the long time scales of early human evolution. We emphasize that landscapes evolve dynamically due to an interplay of processes occurring over different timescales. Tectonic deformation, volcanism, sea level changes, by acting on the topography, the lithology and on the patterns of erosion-deposition in a given area, can moderate or amplify the influence of climate at the regional and local scale. These processes impose or alleviate physical barriers to movement, and modify the distribution and accessibility of plant and animal resources in ways critical to human ecological and evolutionary success (King and Bailey, JHE 2006; Bailey and King, Antiquity 2011). The DISPERSE project, an ERC-funded collaboration between the University of York and the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris,are developing systematic methods for reconstructing landscapes associated with active tectonics, volcanism and sea level change at a variety of scales in order to study their potential impact on patterns of human evolution and dispersal. These approaches use remote sensing techniques combined with archaeological and tectonic field surveys on land and underwater. Examples are shown from Europe, the Middle East and Africa to illustrate the ways in which changes of significance to human settlement can occur at a range of geographical scales and on time scales that range from lifetimes to tens of millennia, creating and sustaining attractive conditions for human settlement and exercising powerful selective pressures on human development.

Thresholds of catastrophe in the Earth system

PubMed Central

Rothman, Daniel H.

2017-01-01

The history of the Earth system is a story of change. Some changes are gradual and benign, but others, especially those associated with catastrophic mass extinction, are relatively abrupt and destructive. What sets one group apart from the other? Here, I hypothesize that perturbations of Earth’s carbon cycle lead to mass extinction if they exceed either a critical rate at long time scales or a critical size at short time scales. By analyzing 31 carbon isotopic events during the past 542 million years, I identify the critical rate with a limit imposed by mass conservation. Identification of the crossover time scale separating fast from slow events then yields the critical size. The modern critical size for the marine carbon cycle is roughly similar to the mass of carbon that human activities will likely have added to the oceans by the year 2100. PMID:28948221

Implicit leadership theories in applied settings: factor structure, generalizability, and stability over time.

PubMed

Epitropaki, Olga; Martin, Robin

2004-04-01

The present empirical investigation had a 3-fold purpose: (a) to cross-validate L. R. Offermann, J. K. Kennedy, and P. W. Wirtz's (1994) scale of Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) in several organizational settings and to further provide a shorter scale of ILTs in organizations; (b) to assess the generalizability of ILTs across different employee groups, and (c) to evaluate ILTs' change over time. Two independent samples were used for the scale validation (N1 = 500 and N2 = 439). A 6-factor structure (Sensitivity, Intelligence, Dedication, Dynamism, Tyranny, and Masculinity) was found to most accurately represent ELTs in organizational settings. Regarding the generalizability of ILTs, although the 6-factor structure was consistent across different employee groups, there was only partial support for total factorial invariance. Finally, evaluation of gamma, beta, and alpha change provided support for ILTs' stability over time.

Dynamic landscapes in human evolution and dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devès, Maud; King, Geoffrey; Bailey, Geoffrey; Inglis, Robyn; Williams, Matthew; Winder, Isabelle

2013-04-01

Archaeological studies of human settlement in its wider landscape setting usually focus on climate change as the principal environmental driver of change in the physical features of the landscape, even on the long time scales of early human evolution. We emphasize that landscapes evolve dynamically due to an interplay of processes occurring over different timescales. Tectonic deformation, volcanism, sea level changes, by acting on the topography, the lithology and on the patterns of erosion-deposition in a given area, can moderate or amplify the influence of climate at the regional and local scale. These processes impose or alleviate physical barriers to movement, and modify the distribution and accessibility of plant and animal resources in ways critical to human ecological and evolutionary success (King and Bailey, JHE 2006; Bailey and King, Antiquity 2011, Winder et al. Antiquity in press). The DISPERSE project, an ERC-funded collaboration between the University of York and the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, aims to develop systematic methods for reconstructing landscapes associated with active tectonics, volcanism and sea level change at a variety of scales in order to study their potential impact on patterns of human evolution and dispersal. Examples are shown to illustrate the ways in which changes of significance to human settlement can occur at a range of geographical scales and on time scales that range from lifetimes to tens of millennia, creating and sustaining attractive conditions for human settlement and exercising powerful selective pressures on human development.

Toward a U.S. National Phenological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2010-01-01

Third USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 5-9 October 2009; Directional climate change will have profound and lasting effects throughout society that are best understood through fundamental physical and biological processes. One such process is phenology: how the timing of recurring biological events is affected by biotic and abiotic forces. Phenology is an early and integrative indicator of climate change readily understood by nonspecialists. Phenology affects the planting, maturation, and harvesting of food and fiber; pollination; timing and magnitude of allergies and disease; recreation and tourism; water quantity and quality; and ecosystem function and resilience. Thus, phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal time scales. Changes in phenologies have already manifested myriad effects of directional climate change. As these changes continue, it is critical to establish a comprehensive suite of benchmarks that can be tracked and mapped at local to continental scales with observations and climate models.

Using MHD Models for Context for Multispacecraft Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sazykin, S. Y.; Webster, J.; Daou, A.; Welling, D. T.; Giles, B. L.; Pollock, C.

2016-12-01

The use of global MHD models such as BATS-R-US to provide context to data from widely spaced multispacecraft mission platforms is gaining in popularity and in effectiveness. Examples are shown, primarily from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) program compared to BATS-R-US. We present several examples of large-scale magnetospheric configuration changes such as tail dipolarization events and reconfigurations after a sector boundary crossing which are made much more easily understood by placing the spacecraft in the model fields. In general, the models can reproduce the large-scale changes observed by the various spacecraft but sometimes miss small-scale or rapid time changes.

The effect of Electron Cyclotron Heating on density fluctuations at ion and electron scales in ITER Baseline Scenario discharges on the DIII-D tokamak

DOE PAGES

Marinoni, Alessandro; Pinsker, Robert I.; Porkolab, Miklos; ...

2017-08-01

Experiments simulating the ITER Baseline Scenario on the DIII-D tokamak show that torque-free pure electron heating, when coupled to plasmas subject to a net co-current beam torque, affects density fluctuations at electron scales on a sub-confinement time scale, whereas fluctuations at ion scales change only after profiles have evolved to a new stationary state. Modifications to the density fluctuations measured by the Phase Contrast Imaging diagnostic (PCI) are assessed by analyzing the time evolution following the switch-off of Electron Cyclotron Heating (ECH), thus going from mixed beam/ECH to pure neutral beam heating at fixed β N . Within 20 msmore » after turning off ECH, the intensity of fluctuations is observed to increase at frequencies higher than 200 kHz; in contrast, fluctuations at lower frequency are seen to decrease in intensity on a longer time scale, after other equilibrium quantities have evolved. Non-linear gyro-kinetic modeling at ion and electron scales scales suggest that, while the low frequency response of the diagnostic is consistent with the dominant ITG modes being weakened by the slow-time increase in flow shear, the high frequency response is due to prompt changes to the electron temperature profile that enhance electron modes and generate a larger heat flux and an inward particle pinch. Furthermore, these results suggest that electron heated regimes in ITER will feature multi-scale fluctuations that might affect fusion performance via modifications to profiles.« less

Further Evidence of the Utility and Validity of a Measure of Outcome for Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turchik, Jessica A.; Karpenko, Veronika; Ogles, Benjamin M.

2007-01-01

The "Ohio Youth Problems, Functioning, and Satisfaction Scales" (Ohio Scales) are a recently developed set of measures designed to be a brief, practical assessment of changes in behavior over time in children and adolescents. The authors explored the convergent validity of the Ohio Scales by examining the relationship between the scales and…

Hope for the Forests? Habitat Resiliency Illustrated in the Face of Climate Change Using Fine-Scale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, E. R.

2010-12-01

In the face of rapid climate change, fine-scale predictions of landscape change are of extreme interest to land managers that endeavor to develop long term adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global climate model (GCM) outputs, which generally focus on estimated increases in air temperature, are increasingly applied to species habitat distribution models. For sensitive species subject to climate change, habitat models predict significant migration (either northward or towards higher elevations), or complete extinction. Current studies typically rely on large spatial scale GCM projections (> 10 km) of changes in precipitation and air temperature: at this scale, these models necessarily neglect subtleties of topographic shading, geomorphic expression of the landscape, and fine-scale differences in soil properties - data that is readily available at meaningful local scales. Recent advances in modeling take advantage of available soils, geology, and topographic data to construct watershed-scale scenarios using GCM inputs and result in improved correlations of vegetation distribution with temperature. For this study, future climate projections were downscaled to 270-m and applied to a physically-based hydrologic model to calculate future changes in recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit (CWD) for basins draining into the northern San Francisco Bay. CWD was analyzed for mapped vegetation types to evaluate the range of CWD for historic time periods in comparison to future time periods. For several forest communities (including blue oak woodlands, montane hardwoods, douglas-fir, and coast redwood) existing landscape area exhibiting suitable CWD diminishes by up 80 percent in the next century, with a trend towards increased CWD throughout the region. However, no forest community loses all suitable habitat, with islands of potential habitat primarily remaining on north facing slopes and deeper soils. Creation of new suitable habitat is also predicted throughout the region. Results have direct application to management issues of habitat connectivity, forest land protection and acquisition, and active management solutions such as transplanting or assisted migration. Although this analysis considers only one driver of forest habitat distribution, consideration of hydrologic derivatives at a fine scale explains current forest community distributions and provides a far more informed perspective on potential future forest distributions. Results demonstrate the utility of fine-scale modeling and provide landscape managers and conservation agencies valuable management tools in fine-scale future forest scenarios and a framework for evaluating forest resiliency in a changing climate.

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes

PubMed Central

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P.; Fischer, Woodward W.; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-01-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time. PMID:27713925

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes.

PubMed

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P; Fischer, Woodward W; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-10-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time.

Two sides of the same coin? Exploring the relationship between Petén-Itzá and Cariaco Basin pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, C.; Correa-Metrio, A.

2013-05-01

Millennial time-scale climate changes from the high latitudes seem to have had a profound effect on Neotropical terrestrial and marine biota during the last glacial cycle. By comparing high resolution palynological data from the Yucatán Peninsula (Lake Petén-Itzá) and Cariaco Basin off Venezuelan coast during the last 70,000 years, we Intend to gain insight into the climatic linkages that existed between both regions. Specifically, we examine the role of atmospheric linking mechanisms like the ITCZ in driving synchronous changes in both palynological records. At millennial time-scales striking similarities appear between the dynamics of drought-indicative taxa (e.g. Poaceae) in Yucatán and riverine input-indicative taxa (Spiniferites) in Cariaco Basin suggesting that both systems responded to the same forcing almost simultaneously. At orbital time-scales, we explore the profound ecological changes that occurred in both sites at ca. 60 kyr that might be related to the shift from glacial to interglacial climatic conditions.

Time-Resolved Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Reveals Millisecond Transitions of a DNA Origami Switch.

PubMed

Bruetzel, Linda K; Walker, Philipp U; Gerling, Thomas; Dietz, Hendrik; Lipfert, Jan

2018-04-11

Self-assembled DNA structures enable creation of specific shapes at the nanometer-micrometer scale with molecular resolution. The construction of functional DNA assemblies will likely require dynamic structures that can undergo controllable conformational changes. DNA devices based on shape complementary stacking interactions have been demonstrated to undergo reversible conformational changes triggered by changes in ionic environment or temperature. An experimentally unexplored aspect is how quickly conformational transitions of large synthetic DNA origami structures can actually occur. Here, we use time-resolved small-angle X-ray scattering to monitor large-scale conformational transitions of a two-state DNA origami switch in free solution. We show that the DNA device switches from its open to its closed conformation upon addition of MgCl 2 in milliseconds, which is close to the theoretical diffusive speed limit. In contrast, measurements of the dimerization of DNA origami bricks reveal much slower and concentration-dependent assembly kinetics. DNA brick dimerization occurs on a time scale of minutes to hours suggesting that the kinetics depend on local concentration and molecular alignment.

Paleoecology and high-resolution paleohydrology of a kettle peatland in upper Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Robert K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Gray, Catherine E. D.

2004-01-01

We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data.

Membrane properties change in fine-pore aeration diffusers: full-scale variations of transfer efficiency and headloss.

PubMed

Rosso, Diego; Libra, Judy A; Wiehe, Wolfgang; Stenstrom, Michael K

2008-05-01

Fine-pore diffusers are the most common aeration system in municipal wastewater treatment. Punched polymeric membranes are often used in fine-pore aeration due to their advantageous initial performance. These membranes are subject to fouling and scaling, resulting in increased headloss and reduced oxygen transfer efficiency, both contributing to increased plant energy costs. This paper describes and discusses the change in material properties for polymeric fine-pore diffusers, comparing new and used membranes. Three different diffuser technologies were tested and sample diffusers from two wastewater treatment facilities were analysed. The polymeric membranes analysed in this paper were composed of ethylene-propylene-diene monomer (EPDM), polyurethane, and silicon. Transfer efficiency is usually lower with longer times in operation, as older, dilated orifices produce larger bubbles, which are unfavourable to mass transfer. At the same time, headloss increases with time in operation, since membranes increase in rigidity and hardness, and fouling and scaling phenomena occur at the orifice opening. Change in polymer properties and laboratory test results correlate with the decrease in oxygen transfer efficiency.

Temporal variation of floc size and settling velocity in the Dollard estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van der Lee, Willem T. B.

2000-09-01

Temporal changes in floc size and settling velocity were measured in the Dollard estuary with an under water video camera. The results show that the flocs in the Dollard are very heterogeneous and that larger flocs have much lower effective densities than smaller flocs. Due to this density decrease, floc settling velocities show only a minor increase with increasing floc size. Floc sizes and settling velocities correlate with the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) on a tidal time scale, but not on a seasonal time scale. On a seasonal time scale floc sizes depend on the binding properties of the sediment, while floc settling velocities show hardly any variation, as an increase in floc size is mainly counterbalanced by a decrease in floc density. Tidal variations in settling velocity occur but cannot be modeled solely as a function of SSC, as the relation between floc size/settling velocity and SSC constantly changes in time and space. Settling velocity variations throughout the tide can however be expressed as a function of tidal phase.

Effects of surgical side and site on psychological symptoms following epilepsy surgery in adults.

PubMed

Prayson, Brigid E; Floden, Darlene P; Ferguson, Lisa; Kim, Kevin H; Jehi, Lara; Busch, Robyn M

2017-03-01

This retrospective study examined the potential role of side and site of surgery in psychological symptom change after epilepsy surgery and determined the base rate of psychological change at the individual level. Two-hundred twenty-eight adults completed the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) before and after temporal (TLR; n=190) or frontal lobe resection (FLR; n=38). Repeated measures ANOVAs with bootstrapping examined differences in psychological outcome as a function of surgical site separately in patients who underwent left- versus right-sided resections. Individual's PAI score changes were then used to determine the prevalence of clinically meaningful postoperative symptom change. Following left-sided resections, there were significant group-by-time interactions on Somatic Complaints, Anxiety, and Anxiety Related Disorders. There was also a trend in this direction on the Depression scale. TLR patients endorsed greater preoperative symptoms than FLR patients on all of these scales, except the Somatic Complaints scale. After surgery, TLR patients reported symptom improvement on all four scales, while scores of FLR patients remained relatively stable over time. Endorsement of Mania-related symptoms increased in both TLR and FLR groups from pre-to post-surgical testing. Following right-sided resections, both groups endorsed symptom improvements on Somatic Complaints, Anxiety, and Depression scales following surgery. In addition, the TLR group endorsed more Mania-related symptoms than the FLR group regardless of time. Patterns of meaningful change in individual patients were generally consistent with group findings, with the most frequent improvements observed following TLR. However, there were a small subset of patients who reported symptom exacerbation after surgery. Our results suggest that surgical lateralization and localization are important factors in postoperative psychological outcome and highlight the importance of considering psychological change at the individual patient level. Further research is needed to identify potential risk factors for symptom exacerbation to aid in preoperative counseling and identify those patients most in need of postoperative psychological surveillance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of varying time scales in sediment transport using the Hilbert-Huang Transform method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuai, Ken Z.; Tsai, Christina W.

2012-02-01

SummarySediment transport processes vary at a variety of time scales - from seconds, hours, days to months and years. Multiple time scales exist in the system of flow, sediment transport and bed elevation change processes. As such, identification and selection of appropriate time scales for flow and sediment processes can assist in formulating a system of flow and sediment governing equations representative of the dynamic interaction of flow and particles at the desired details. Recognizing the importance of different varying time scales in the fluvial processes of sediment transport, we introduce the Hilbert-Huang Transform method (HHT) to the field of sediment transport for the time scale analysis. The HHT uses the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to decompose a time series into a collection of the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), and uses the Hilbert Spectral Analysis (HSA) to obtain instantaneous frequency data. The EMD extracts the variability of data with different time scales, and improves the analysis of data series. The HSA can display the succession of time varying time scales, which cannot be captured by the often-used Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) method. This study is one of the earlier attempts to introduce the state-of-the-art technique for the multiple time sales analysis of sediment transport processes. Three practical applications of the HHT method for data analysis of both suspended sediment and bedload transport time series are presented. The analysis results show the strong impact of flood waves on the variations of flow and sediment time scales at a large sampling time scale, as well as the impact of flow turbulence on those time scales at a smaller sampling time scale. Our analysis reveals that the existence of multiple time scales in sediment transport processes may be attributed to the fractal nature in sediment transport. It can be demonstrated by the HHT analysis that the bedload motion time scale is better represented by the ratio of the water depth to the settling velocity, h/ w. In the final part, HHT results are compared with an available time scale formula in literature.

Brain Dynamics of Aging: Multiscale Variability of EEG Signals at Rest and during an Auditory Oddball Task1,2,3

PubMed Central

Perdikis, Dionysios; Müller, Viktor; Blanc, Jean-Luc; Huys, Raoul; Temprado, Jean-Jacques

2015-01-01

Abstract The present work focused on the study of fluctuations of cortical activity across time scales in young and older healthy adults. The main objective was to offer a comprehensive characterization of the changes of brain (cortical) signal variability during aging, and to make the link with known underlying structural, neurophysiological, and functional modifications, as well as aging theories. We analyzed electroencephalogram (EEG) data of young and elderly adults, which were collected at resting state and during an auditory oddball task. We used a wide battery of metrics that typically are separately applied in the literature, and we compared them with more specific ones that address their limits. Our procedure aimed to overcome some of the methodological limitations of earlier studies and verify whether previous findings can be reproduced and extended to different experimental conditions. In both rest and task conditions, our results mainly revealed that EEG signals presented systematic age-related changes that were time-scale-dependent with regard to the structure of fluctuations (complexity) but not with regard to their magnitude. Namely, compared with young adults, the cortical fluctuations of the elderly were more complex at shorter time scales, but less complex at longer scales, although always showing a lower variance. Additionally, the elderly showed signs of spatial, as well as between, experimental conditions dedifferentiation. By integrating these so far isolated findings across time scales, metrics, and conditions, the present study offers an overview of age-related changes in the fluctuation electrocortical activity while making the link with underlying brain dynamics. PMID:26464983

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragone, Francesco; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2016-03-01

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time-scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time-scales. Conceptually, these results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, these results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. This technique allows also for studying systematically, for a large variety of forcing scenarios, the time horizon at which the climate change signal (in an ensemble sense) becomes statistically significant. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. These results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

Shifting gears: Diversification, intensification, and effort increases in small-scale fisheries (1950-2010)

PubMed Central

Gergel, Sarah E.; Vincent, Amanda C. J.

2018-01-01

Locally sustainable resource extraction activities, at times, transform into ecologically detrimental enterprises. Understanding such transitions is a primary challenge for conservation and management of many ecosystems. In marine systems, over-exploitation of small-scale fisheries creates problems such as reduced biodiversity and lower catches. However, long-term documentation of how governance and associated changes in fishing gears may have contributed to such declines is often lacking. Using fisher interviews, we characterized fishing gear dynamics over 60 years (1950–2010) in a coral reef ecosystem in the Philippines subject to changing fishing regulations. In aggregate fishers greatly diversified their use of fishing gears. However, most individual fishers used one or two gears at a time (mean number of fishing gears < 2 in all years). Individual fishing effort (days per year) was fairly steady over the study period, but cumulative fishing effort by all fishers increased 240%. In particular, we document large increases in total effort by fishers using nets and diving. Other fishing gears experienced less pronounced changes in total effort over time. Fishing intensified through escalating use of non-selective, active, and destructive fishing gears. We also found that policies promoting higher production over sustainability influenced the use of fishing gears, with changes in gear use persisting decades after those same policies were stopped. Our quantitative evidence shows dynamic changes in fishing gear use over time and indicates that gears used in contemporary small-scale fisheries impact oceans more than those used in earlier decades. PMID:29538370

Long-term changes in the perception of job characteristics: results from the Belstress II--study.

PubMed

Clays, Els; De Bacquer, Dirk; Leynen, Francoise; Kornitzer, Marcel; Kittel, France; De Backer, Guy

2006-09-01

The aim was to explore long-term changes in the perception of job characteristics--based on the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ)--in view of the changing labor market in Western societies. A total number of 2,821 workers from nine companies were involved in the longitudinal Belstress-project. Data were gathered on two occasions with a mean time interval of 6.6 yr. At both times, participants completed the JCQ which measures the perception of job demands, job control and social support. In addition, the instrument contains questions regarding physical job demands, job insecurity and impact of world market competition (WMC). Changes over time in the perception of the different dimensions of the JCQ were evaluated within a sample of 2,490 respondents who remained in the same job. A statistically significant long-term stability of all JCQ scales was found. As far as intra-individual changes over time are concerned, the population showed a modest average increase in the perception of job demands, control and support of approximately 3%. Long-term changes in the other scales were larger, with an average increase of 10.3% in job insecurity and 15.5% in impact of WMC. Substantial variation in these two scales was found at the level of the company and in some socio-demographic factors. While perceived job characteristics remained relatively stable over an average period of 6.6 yr, a substantial increase was noted in job insecurity and the impact of WMC. These dimensions are becoming increasingly important within the context of economic globalization and labor market flexibility.

Decadal changes in north-American tundra plant communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarreal, S.; Johnson, D. R.; Webber, P.; Ebert-May, D.; Hollister, R. D.; Tweedie, C. E.

2013-12-01

Improving our understanding of how tundra vegetation responds to environmental change over decadal time scales is important. Tundra plants and ecosystems are well-recognized for their susceptibility to be impacted by climate warming; changes in land-atmosphere carbon, water, and energy balance in tundra landscapes have the potential to impact regional to global-scale climate, and relatively few studies examining change in tundra landscapes have spanned decadal time scales. The majority of our understanding of tundra vegetation responses to environmental change has been derived from studies along environmental gradients, experimental manipulations, and modeling. This study synthesizes the rescue and resampling of historic vegetation study sites established during the 1960's and 1970's at three arctic tundra locations (Baffin Island, Canada, Barrow, Alaska, and Atqasuk, Alaska), and one alpine tundra location (Niwot Ridge, Colorado). We conducted a meta-analysis to examine decadal changes in plant community composition, species richness, species evenness, and species diversity at all locations and for three broad soil moisture classes (dry, moist, wet). For all sites, except Baffin Island, change over the last decade was compared with long term change to determine if rates of change have altered over time. Change in plant community composition was most dramatic at Barrow and Baffin Island (P < 0.05), while less change was detected at Niwot Ridge (P < 0.10), and Atqasuk. Plant communities also changed for all soil moisture classes. The rate of change at Barrow and in moist soil classes appears to have quickened over the last decade. Rates of early plant successional change at Baffin Island appear to have quickened relative to rates documented in the mid 1960's. There were no changes in species richness at any of the locations, but there appears to be acceleration in the loss of species richness for dry and moist tundra. Species evenness increased at Atqasuk and in dry and wet tundra but decreased at Niwot Ridge in moist tundra. A loss in species diversity was detected in moist tundra in the decadal study, while diversity increased for dry and wet tundra. Baffin Island was the only location to show evidence of an increase in species diversity. This study appears to be among the first to document an acceleration of vegetation change in tundra landscapes using decadal time scale observational data, and highlights the importance of both sustained monitoring, and the rescue and resampling of historic sites, which have proven to be effective in advancing our knowledge of vegetation change dynamics. This project was a contribution to the International Polar Year Back to the Future project (IPY#512).

Division A Commission 31: Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosokawa, Mizuhiko; Arias, Elisa Felicitas; Manchester, Richard; Tuckey, Philip; Matsakis, Demetrios; Zhang, Shougang; Zharov, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Time is an essential element of fundamental astronomy. In recent years there have been many time-related issues, in scientific and technological aspects as well as in conventions and definitions. At the Commission 31 (Time) business meeting at the XXIX General Assembly, recent progress and many topics, including Pulsar Time Scales WG and Future UTC WG activities, were reviewed and discussed. In this report, we will review the progress of these topics in the past three years. There are many remarkable topics, such as Time scales, Atomic clock development, Time transfer, Future UTC and future redefinition of the second. Among them, scientific highlights are the progress of pulsar time scales and the optical frequency standards. On the other hand, as the social convention, change in the definition of UTC and the second is important.

Hydrograph structure informed calibration in the frequency domain with time localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumarasamy, K.; Belmont, P.

2015-12-01

Complex models with large number of parameters are commonly used to estimate sediment yields and predict changes in sediment loads as a result of changes in management or conservation practice at large watershed (>2000 km2) scales. As sediment yield is a strongly non-linear function that responds to channel (peak or mean) velocity or flow depth, it is critical to accurately represent flows. The process of calibration in such models (e.g., SWAT) generally involves the adjustment of several parameters to obtain better estimates of goodness of fit metrics such as Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE). However, such indicators only provide a global view of model performance, potentially obscuring accuracy of the timing or magnitude of specific flows of interest. We describe an approach for streamflow calibration that will greatly reduce the black-box nature of calibration, when response from a parameter adjustment is not clearly known. Fourier Transform or the Short Term Fourier Transform could be used to characterize model performance in the frequency domain as well, however, the ambiguity of a Fourier transform with regards to time localization renders its implementation in a model calibration setting rather useless. Brief and sudden changes (e.g. stream flow peaks) in signals carry the most interesting information from parameter adjustments, which are completely lost in the transform without time localization. Wavelet transform captures the frequency component in the signal without compromising time and is applied to contrast changes in signal response to parameter adjustments. Here we employ the mother wavelet called the Mexican hat wavelet and apply a Continuous Wavelet Transform to understand the signal in the frequency domain. Further, with the use of the cross-wavelet spectrum we examine the relationship between the two signals (prior or post parameter adjustment) in the time-scale plane (e.g., lower scales correspond to higher frequencies). The non-stationarity of the streamflow signal does not hinder this assessment and regions of change called boundaries of influence (seasons or time when such change occurs in the hydrograph) for each parameter are delineated. In addition, we can discover the structural component of the signal (e.g., shifts or amplitude change) that has changed.

Toward a comprehensive landscape vegetation monitoring framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Robert; Hughes, Joseph; Neeti, Neeti; Larrue, Tara; Gregory, Matthew; Roberts, Heather; Ohmann, Janet; Kane, Van; Kane, Jonathan; Hooper, Sam; Nelson, Peder; Cohen, Warren; Yang, Zhiqiang

2016-04-01

Blossoming Earth observation resources provide great opportunity to better understand land vegetation dynamics, but also require new techniques and frameworks to exploit their potential. Here, I describe several parallel projects that leverage time-series Landsat imagery to describe vegetation dynamics at regional and continental scales. At the core of these projects are the LandTrendr algorithms, which distill time-series earth observation data into periods of consistent long or short-duration dynamics. In one approach, we built an integrated, empirical framework to blend these algorithmically-processed time-series data with field data and lidar data to ascribe yearly change in forest biomass across the US states of Washington, Oregon, and California. In a separate project, we expanded from forest-only monitoring to full landscape land cover monitoring over the same regional scale, including both categorical class labels and continuous-field estimates. In these and other projects, we apply machine-learning approaches to ascribe all changes in vegetation to driving processes such as harvest, fire, urbanization, etc., allowing full description of both disturbance and recovery processes and drivers. Finally, we are moving toward extension of these same techniques to continental and eventually global scales using Google Earth Engine. Taken together, these approaches provide one framework for describing and understanding processes of change in vegetation communities at broad scales.

Novel Behavioral and Neural Evidences for Age-Related changes in Force complexity.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Ching; Lin, Linda L; Hwang, Ing-Shiou

2018-02-17

This study investigated age-related changes in behavioral and neural complexity for a polyrhythmic movement, which appeared to be an exception to the loss of complexity hypothesis. Young (n = 15; age = 24.2 years) and older (15; 68.1 years) adults performed low-level force-tracking with isometric index abduction to couple a compound sinusoidal target. Multi-scale entropy (MSE) of tracking force and inter-spike interval (ISI) of motor unit (MU) in the first dorsal interosseus muscle were assessed. The MSE area of tracking force at shorter time scales of older adults was greater (more complex) than that of young adults, whereas an opposite trend (less complex for the elders) was noted at longer time scales. The MSE area of force fluctuations (the stochastic component of the tracking force) were generally smaller (less complex) for older adults. Along with greater mean and coefficient of ISI, the MSE area of the cumulative discharge rate of elders tended to be lower (less complex) than that of young adults. In conclusion, age-related complexity changes in polyrhythmic force-tracking depended on the time scale. The adaptive behavioral consequences could be multi-factorial origins of the age-related impairment in rate coding, increased discharge noises, and lower discharge complexity of pooled MUs.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Effect of small versus large clusters of fish school on the yield of a purse-seine small pelagic fishery including a marine protected area.

PubMed

Hieu, Nguyen Trong; Brochier, Timothée; Tri, Nguyen-Huu; Auger, Pierre; Brehmer, Patrice

2014-09-01

We consider a fishery model with two sites: (1) a marine protected area (MPA) where fishing is prohibited and (2) an area where the fish population is harvested. We assume that fish can migrate from MPA to fishing area at a very fast time scale and fish spatial organisation can change from small to large clusters of school at a fast time scale. The growth of the fish population and the catch are assumed to occur at a slow time scale. The complete model is a system of five ordinary differential equations with three time scales. We take advantage of the time scales using aggregation of variables methods to derive a reduced model governing the total fish density and fishing effort at the slow time scale. We analyze this aggregated model and show that under some conditions, there exists an equilibrium corresponding to a sustainable fishery. Our results suggest that in small pelagic fisheries the yield is maximum for a fish population distributed among both small and large clusters of school.

The contribution of changes in P release and CO2 consumption by chemical weathering to the historical trend in land carbon uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodale, C. L.; Fredriksen, G.; McCalley, C. K.; Sparks, J. P.; Thomas, S. A.

2011-12-01

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased to a level unprecedented in the last 2 million years, and the concentration is projected to increase further with a rate unseen in geological past. The increase in CO2 cause a rise in surface temperatures and changes in the hydrological cycle through the redistribution of rainfall patterns. All of these changes will impact the weathering of rocks, which in turn affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations via two different pathways. On the one hand, CO2 is consumed by the dissolution reaction of the exposed minerals. And on the other hand, biological CO2 fixation is affected due to changes in phosphorus release from minerals, as biological activity is constrained by phosphorus availability at large scales. The traditional view is that both effects are negligible on a centennial time scale, but recent work on catchment scale challenge this view in favor of a potential high sensitivity of weathering to ongoing climate and land use changes. To globally quantify the contribution of CO2 fixation associated with weathering on the historical trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake, we applied a model of chemical weathering and phosphorus release under climate reconstructions from four Earth System Models. The simulations indicate that changes in weathering could have contributed considerably to the trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake since the pre-industrial revolution, with warming being the main driver of change. The increase in biological CO2 fixation is of comparable magnitude as the increase in CO2 consumption by chemical weathering. Our simulations support the previous findings on catchment scale that weathering can change significantly on a centennial time scale. This finding has implications for 21st century climate projections, which ignore changes in weathering, as well as for long-term airborne fraction of CO2 emissions, whose calculation usually neglects changes in phosphorus availability.

The contribution of changes in P release and CO2 consumption by chemical weathering to the historical trend in land carbon uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goll, D. S.; Moosdorf, N.; Brovkin, V.; Hartmann, J.

2013-12-01

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased to a level unprecedented in the last 2 million years, and the concentration is projected to increase further with a rate unseen in geological past. The increase in CO2 cause a rise in surface temperatures and changes in the hydrological cycle through the redistribution of rainfall patterns. All of these changes will impact the weathering of rocks, which in turn affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations via two different pathways. On the one hand, CO2 is consumed by the dissolution reaction of the exposed minerals. And on the other hand, biological CO2 fixation is affected due to changes in phosphorus release from minerals, as biological activity is constrained by phosphorus availability at large scales. The traditional view is that both effects are negligible on a centennial time scale, but recent work on catchment scale challenge this view in favor of a potential high sensitivity of weathering to ongoing climate and land use changes. To globally quantify the contribution of CO2 fixation associated with weathering on the historical trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake, we applied a model of chemical weathering and phosphorus release under climate reconstructions from four Earth System Models. The simulations indicate that changes in weathering could have contributed considerably to the trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake since the pre-industrial revolution, with warming being the main driver of change. The increase in biological CO2 fixation is of comparable magnitude as the increase in CO2 consumption by chemical weathering. Our simulations support the previous findings on catchment scale that weathering can change significantly on a centennial time scale. This finding has implications for 21st century climate projections, which ignore changes in weathering, as well as for long-term airborne fraction of CO2 emissions, whose calculation usually neglects changes in phosphorus availability.

Fire-induced changes in boreal forest canopy volume and soil organic matter from multi-temporal airborne lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonzo, M.; Cook, B.; Andersen, H. E.; Babcock, C. R.; Morton, D. C.

2016-12-01

Fire in boreal forests initiates a cascade of biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Over typical fire return intervals, net radiative forcing from boreal forest fires depends on the offsetting impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and post-fire changes in land surface albedo. Whether boreal forest fires warm or cool the climate over these multi-decadal intervals depends on the magnitude of fire emissions and the time scales of decomposition, albedo changes, and forest regrowth. Our understanding of vegetation and surface organic matter (SOM) changes from boreal forest fires is shaped by field measurements and moderate resolution remote sensing data. Intensive field plot measurements offer detailed data on overstory, understory, and SOM changes from fire, but sparse plot data can be difficult to extend across the heterogeneous boreal forest landscape. Conversely, satellite measurements of burn severity are spatially extensive but only provide proxy measures of fire effects. In this research, we seek to bridge the scale gap between existing intensive and extensive methods using a combination of airborne lidar data and time series of Landsat data to evaluate pre- and post-fire conditions across Alaska's Kenai Peninsula. Lidar-based estimates of pre-fire stand structure and composition were essential to characterize the loss of canopy volume from fires between 2001 and 2014, quantify transitions from live to dead standing carbon pools, and isolate vegetation recovery following fire over 1 to 13 year time scales. Results from this study demonstrate the utility of lidar for estimating pre-fire structure and species composition at the scale of individual tree crowns. Multi-temporal airborne lidar data also provide essential insights regarding the heterogeneity of canopy and SOM losses at a sub-Landsat pixel scale. Fire effects are forest-structure and species dependent with variable temporal lags in carbon release due to delayed mortality (>5 years post fire) and standing dead trees. Establishing the spatial and temporal scales of canopy structural change will aid in constraining estimates of net radiative forcing from both carbon release and albedo in the years following fire.

Interferometric Imaging of Geostationary Satellites: Signal-to-Noise Considerations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

instrument a minute time -scale snapshot imager. Snapshot imaging is im- portant because it allows for resolving short time -scale changes of the satellite ...curves of fringe amplitude standard deviation as a function of satellite V-magnitude, giving the corresponding integration time . From this figure we can...combiner (in R-band). We conclude that it is possible to track fringes on typical highly resolved satellites to a magnitude of V = 14.5. This range

Density scaling on n  =  1 error field penetration in ohmically heated discharges in EAST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hui-Hui; Sun, You-Wen; Shi, Tong-Hui; Zang, Qing; Liu, Yue-Qiang; Yang, Xu; Gu, Shuai; He, Kai-Yang; Gu, Xiang; Qian, Jin-Ping; Shen, Biao; Luo, Zheng-Ping; Chu, Nan; Jia, Man-Ni; Sheng, Zhi-Cai; Liu, Hai-Qing; Gong, Xian-Zu; Wan, Bao-Nian; Contributors, EAST

2018-05-01

Density scaling of error field penetration in EAST is investigated with different n  =  1 magnetic perturbation coil configurations in ohmically heated discharges. The density scalings of error field penetration thresholds under two magnetic perturbation spectra are br\\propto n_e0.5 and br\\propto n_e0.6 , where b r is the error field and n e is the line averaged electron density. One difficulty in understanding the density scaling is that key parameters other than density in determining the field penetration process may also be changed when the plasma density changes. Therefore, they should be determined from experiments. The estimated theoretical analysis (br\\propto n_e0.54 in lower density region and br\\propto n_e0.40 in higher density region), using the density dependence of viscosity diffusion time, electron temperature and mode frequency measured from the experiments, is consistent with the observed scaling. One of the key points to reproduce the observed scaling in EAST is that the viscosity diffusion time estimated from energy confinement time is almost constant. It means that the plasma confinement lies in saturation ohmic confinement regime rather than the linear Neo-Alcator regime causing weak density dependence in the previous theoretical studies.

A review and assessment of land-use change models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice

Treesearch

Chetan Agarwal; Glen M. Green; J. Morgan Grove; Tom P. Evans; Charles M. Schweik

2002-01-01

A review of different types of land-use change models incorporating human processes. Presents a framework to compare land-use change models in terms of scale (both spatial and temporal) and complexity, and how well they incorporate space, time, and human decisionmaking. Examines a summary set of 250 relevant citations and develops a bibliography of 136 papers. From...

Evolution of damage during deformation in porous granular materials (Louis Néel Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, Ian

2014-05-01

'Crackling noise' occurs in a wide variety of systems that respond to external forcing in an intermittent way, leading to sudden bursts of energy release similar to those heard when crunching up a piece of paper or listening to a fire. In mineral magnetism ('Barkhausen') crackling noise occurs due to sudden changes in the size and orientation of microscopic ferromagnetic domains when the external magnetic field is changed. In rock physics sudden changes in internal stress associated with microscopically brittle failure events lead to acoustic emissions that can be recorded on the sample boundary, and used to infer the state of internal damage. Crackling noise is inherently stochastic, but the population of events often exhibits remarkably robust scaling properties, in terms of the source area, duration, energy, and in the waiting time between events. Here I describe how these scaling properties emerge and evolve spontaneously in a fully-dynamic discrete element model of sedimentary rocks subject to uniaxial compression at a constant strain rate. The discrete elements have structural disorder similar to that of a real rock, and this is the only source of heterogeneity. Despite the stationary loading and the lack of any time-dependent weakening processes, the results are all characterized by emergent power law distributions over a broad range of scales, in agreement with experimental observation. As deformation evolves, the scaling exponents change systematically in a way that is similar to the evolution of damage in experiments on real sedimentary rocks. The potential for real-time failure forecasting is examined by using synthetic and real data from laboratory tests and prior to volcanic eruptions. The combination of non-linearity and an irreducible stochastic component leads to significant variations in the precision and accuracy of the forecast failure time, leading to a significant proportion of 'false alarms' (forecast too early) and 'missed events' (forecast too late), as well as an over-optimistic assessments of forecasting power and quality when the failure time is known (the 'benefit of hindsight'). The evolution becomes progressively more complex, and the forecasting power diminishes, in going from ideal synthetics to controlled laboratory tests to open natural systems at larger scales in space and time.

Test-retest reliability and sensitivity to change of the dimensional anxiety scales for DSM-5.

PubMed

Knappe, Susanne; Klotsche, Jens; Heyde, Franziska; Hiob, Sarah; Siegert, Jens; Hoyer, Jürgen; Strobel, Anja; LeBeau, Richard T; Craske, Michelle G; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

2014-06-01

This article reports on the test-retest reliability and sensitivity to change of a set of brief dimensional self-rating questionnaires for social anxiety disorder (SAD-D), specific phobia (SP-D), agoraphobia (AG-D), panic disorder (PD-D), and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD-D), as well as a general cross-cutting anxiety scale (Cross-D), which were developed to supplement categorical diagnoses in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition (DSM-5). The German versions of the dimensional anxiety scales were administered to 218 students followed up approximately 2 weeks later (Study 1) and 55 outpatients (23 with anxiety diagnoses) followed-up 1 year later (Study 2). Probable diagnostic status in students was determined by the DIA-X/M-CIDI stem screening-questionnaire (SSQ). In the clinical sample, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) diagnoses were assessed at Time 1 using the DIA-X/M-CIDI. At Time 2, the patient-version of the Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale (CGI-I) was applied to assess change. Good psychometric properties, including high test-retest reliability, were found for the dimensional scales except for SP-D. In outpatients, improvement at Time 2 was associated with significant decrease in PD-D, GAD-D, and Cross-D scores. Discussion Major advantages of the scales include that they are brief, concise, and based on a consistent template to measure the cognitive, physiological, and behavioral symptoms of fear and anxiety. Further replication in larger samples is needed. Given its modest psychometric properties, SP-D needs refinement. Increasing evidence from diverse samples suggests clinical utility of the dimensional anxiety scales.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry.

PubMed

Nagorski, Sonia A; Moore, Iohnnie N; McKinnon, Temple E; Smith, David B

2003-03-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nagorski, S.A.; Moore, J.N.; McKinnon, Temple E.; Smith, D.B.

2003-01-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Solar variability. [measurements by spaceborne instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sofia, S.

1981-01-01

Reference is made to direct measurements carried out by space-borne detectors which have shown variations of the solar constant at the 0.2 percent level, with times scales ranging from days to tens of days. It is contended that these changes do not necessarily reflect variations in the solar luminosity and that, in general, direct measurements have not yet been able to establish (or exclude) solar luminosity changes with longer time scales. Indirect techniques, however, especially radius measurements,suggest that solar luminosity variations of up to approximately 0.7 percent have occurred within a period of tens to hundreds of years.

Multiple time scale analysis of sediment and runoff changes in the Lower Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Kaige; Gang, Zhao; Pang, Bo; Huang, Ziqian

2018-06-01

Sediment and runoff changes of seven hydrological stations along the Lower Yellow River (LYR) (Huayuankou Station, Jiahetan Station, Gaocun Station, Sunkou Station, Ai Shan Station, Qikou Station and Lijin Station) from 1980 to 2003 were alanyzed at multiple time scale. The maximum value of monthly, daily and hourly sediment load and runoff conservations were also analyzed with the annually mean value. Mann-Kendall non-parametric mathematics correlation test and Hurst coefficient method were adopted in the study. Research results indicate that (1) the runoff of seven hydrological stations was significantly reduced in the study period at different time scales. However, the trends of sediment load in these stations were not obvious. The sediment load of Huayuankou, Jiahetan and Aishan stations even slightly increased with the runoff decrease. (2) The trends of the sediment load with different time scale showed differences at Luokou and Lijin stations. Although the annually and monthly sediment load were broadly flat, the maximum hourly sediment load showed decrease trend. (3) According to the Hurst coefficients, the trend of sediment and runoff will be continue without taking measures, which proved the necessary of runoff-sediment regulation scheme.

Assessing age stereotypes in the German population in 1996 and 2011: socio-demographic correlates and shift over time.

PubMed

Spangenberg, Lena; Zenger, Markus; Glaesmer, Heide; Brähler, Elmar; Strauss, Bernhard

2018-03-01

The present study aimed to extend the knowledge regarding dimensionality, socio-demographic correlates and shifts in age stereotypes over the past 15 years using a time-sequential design. In 1996 and 2011, we assessed age stereotypes in two independent samples of the German population aged ≥ 45 years ( N  = 970 in sample 1, N  = 1545 in sample 2). Three scales with six items each were assessed. Two scales cover negative (i.e., rigidity/isolation, burden), and one scale covers positive age stereotypes (wisdom/experience). Dimensionality of the scale, associations with socio-demographic variables and whether the stereotypes have shifted were tested using confirmatory factor analyses, structural equation modeling and analyses of variances. Three dimensions were identified and replicated following an exploratory as well as a confirmatory approach. Age stereotypes did shift between 1996 and 2011 in the dimension burden (i.e., becoming more negative). Our results further underpin the finding that age stereotypes are multifaceted and suggest that dimensions do not change over time. Additionally, our data provide some evidence that societal age stereotypes partly change over time.

Time Scale Optimization and the Hunt for Astronomical Cycles in Deep Time Strata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Stephen R.

2016-04-01

A valuable attribute of astrochronology is the direct link between chronometer and climate change, providing a remarkable opportunity to constrain the evolution of the surficial Earth System. Consequently, the hunt for astronomical cycles in strata has spurred the development of a rich conceptual framework for climatic/oceanographic change, and has allowed exploration of the geologic record with unprecedented temporal resolution. Accompanying these successes, however, has been a persistent skepticism about appropriate astrochronologic testing and circular reasoning: how does one reliably test for astronomical cycles in stratigraphic data, especially when time is poorly constrained? From this perspective, it would seem that the merits and promise of astrochronology (e.g., a geologic time scale measured in ≤400 kyr increments) also serves as its Achilles heel, if the confirmation of such short rhythms defies rigorous statistical testing. To address these statistical challenges in astrochronologic testing, a new approach has been developed that (1) explicitly evaluates time scale uncertainty, (2) is resilient to common problems associated with spectrum confidence level assessment and 'multiple testing', and (3) achieves high statistical power under a wide range of conditions (it can identify astronomical cycles when present in data). Designated TimeOpt (for "time scale optimization"; Meyers 2015), the method employs a probabilistic linear regression model framework to investigate amplitude modulation and frequency ratios (bundling) in stratigraphic data, while simultaneously determining the optimal time scale. This presentation will review the TimeOpt method, and demonstrate how the flexible statistical framework can be further extended to evaluate (and optimize upon) complex sedimentation rate models, enhancing the statistical power of the approach, and addressing the challenge of unsteady sedimentation. Meyers, S. R. (2015), The evaluation of eccentricity-related amplitude modulation and bundling in paleoclimate data: An inverse approach for astrochronologic testing and time scale optimization, Paleoceanography, 30, doi:10.1002/ 2015PA002850.

[The Munich Attachment and Effectiveness Study: Study Design and a Case Example].

PubMed

Hörz-Sagstetter, Susanne; Minow, Anna-Rahel; Erhardt, Ingrid; Barten-Hohn, Julia; Denscherz, Claudia; Buchheim, Anna; Taubner, Svenja; Mertens, Wolfgang

2016-03-01

The "Munich Attachment and Effectiveness Study" is a prospective psychotherapy study examining process and outcome of psychoanalytic psychotherapies. The study design and results are exemplified in a single case. At 6 points in time audio-taped and transcribed therapy sessions are evaluated using process instruments (e. g. Psychotherapy Process Q-Set PQS) and interviews (e. g. Operationalized Psychodynamic Diagnostics OPD, Heidelberg Structural Change Scale HSCS, Adult Attachment Interview AAI). In the single case, findings from the psychotherapeutic process (e. g. "therapist is empathic" according to PQS) complement the achieved changes. 5 HSCS problem foci reached level of "restructuring", on the Reflective Functioning Scale a marked change of RF took place and the attachment classification changed over time. The instruments employed in this study corresponded well in assessing change processes in spite of differing theoretical background. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Postcoalescence evolution of growth stress in polycrystalline films.

PubMed

González-González, A; Polop, C; Vasco, E

2013-02-01

The growth stress generated once grains coalesce in Volmer-Weber-type thin films is investigated by time-multiscale simulations comprising complementary modules of (i) finite-element modeling to address the interactions between grains happening at atomic vibration time scales (~0.1 ps), (ii) dynamic scaling to account for the surface stress relaxation via morphology changes at surface diffusion time scales (~μs-ms), and (iii) the mesoscopic rate equation approach to simulate the bulk stress relaxation at deposition time scales (~sec-h). On the basis of addressing the main experimental evidence reported so far on the topic dealt with, the simulation results provide key findings concerning the interplay between anisotropic grain interactions at complementary space scales, deposition conditions (such as flux and mobility), and mechanisms of stress accommodation-relaxation, which underlies the origin, nature and spatial distribution, and the flux dependence of the postcoalescence growth stress.

CHANG-ES. IX. Radio scale heights and scale lengths of a consistent sample of 13 spiral galaxies seen edge-on and their correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Marita; Irwin, Judith; Wiegert, Theresa; Miskolczi, Arpad; Damas-Segovia, Ancor; Beck, Rainer; Li, Jiang-Tao; Heald, George; Müller, Peter; Stein, Yelena; Rand, Richard J.; Heesen, Volker; Walterbos, Rene A. M.; Dettmar, Ralf-Jürgen; Vargas, Carlos J.; English, Jayanne; Murphy, Eric J.

2018-03-01

Aim. The vertical halo scale height is a crucial parameter to understand the transport of cosmic-ray electrons (CRE) and their energy loss mechanisms in spiral galaxies. Until now, the radio scale height could only be determined for a few edge-on galaxies because of missing sensitivity at high resolution. Methods: We developed a sophisticated method for the scale height determination of edge-on galaxies. With this we determined the scale heights and radial scale lengths for a sample of 13 galaxies from the CHANG-ES radio continuum survey in two frequency bands. Results: The sample average values for the radio scale heights of the halo are 1.1 ± 0.3 kpc in C-band and 1.4 ± 0.7 kpc in L-band. From the frequency dependence analysis of the halo scale heights we found that the wind velocities (estimated using the adiabatic loss time) are above the escape velocity. We found that the halo scale heights increase linearly with the radio diameters. In order to exclude the diameter dependence, we defined a normalized scale height h˜ which is quite similar for all sample galaxies at both frequency bands and does not depend on the star formation rate or the magnetic field strength. However, h˜ shows a tight anticorrelation with the mass surface density. Conclusions: The sample galaxies with smaller scale lengths are more spherical in the radio emission, while those with larger scale lengths are flatter. The radio scale height depends mainly on the radio diameter of the galaxy. The sample galaxies are consistent with an escape-dominated radio halo with convective cosmic ray propagation, indicating that galactic winds are a widespread phenomenon in spiral galaxies. While a higher star formation rate or star formation surface density does not lead to a higher wind velocity, we found for the first time observational evidence of a gravitational deceleration of CRE outflow, e.g. a lowering of the wind velocity from the galactic disk.

Drivers of protogynous sex change differ across spatial scales.

PubMed

Taylor, Brett M

2014-01-22

The influence of social demography on sex change schedules in protogynous reef fishes is well established, yet effects across spatial scales (in particular, the magnitude of natural variation relative to size-selective fishing effects) are poorly understood. Here, I examine variation in timing of sex change for exploited parrotfishes across a range of environmental, anthropogenic and geographical factors. Results were highly dependent on spatial scale. Fishing pressure was the most influential factor determining length at sex change at the within-island scale where a wide range of anthropogenic pressure existed. Sex transition occurred at smaller sizes where fishing pressure was high. Among islands, however, differences were overwhelmingly predicted by reefal-scale structural features, a pattern evident for all species examined. For the most abundant species, Chlorurus spilurus, length at sex change increased at higher overall densities and greater female-to-male sex ratios at all islands except where targeted by fishermen; here the trend was reversed. This implies differing selective pressures on adult individuals can significantly alter sex change dynamics, highlighting the importance of social structure, demography and the selective forces structuring populations. Considerable life-history responses to exploitation were observed, but results suggest potential fishing effects on demography may be obscured by natural variation at biogeographic scales.

Divisions of geologic time-major chronostratigraphic and geochronologic units

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2010-01-01

Effective communication in the geosciences requires consistent uses of stratigraphic nomenclature, especially divisions of geologic time. A geologic time scale is composed of standard stratigraphic divisions based on rock sequences and is calibrated in years. Over the years, the development of new dating methods and the refinement of previous methods have stimulated revisions to geologic time scales. Advances in stratigraphy and geochronology require that any time scale be periodically updated. Therefore, Divisions of Geologic Time, which shows the major chronostratigraphic (position) and geochronologic (time) units, is intended to be a dynamic resource that will be modified to include accepted changes of unit names and boundary age estimates. This fact sheet is a modification of USGS Fact Sheet 2007-3015 by the U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Names Committee.

Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.

2006-12-01

Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models that incorporate fine-scale landscape structure and its changes over time.

Modulation of Small-scale Turbulence Structure by Large-scale Motions in the Absence of Direct Energy Transfer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, James G.; Juneja, Anurag

1996-11-01

Previous DNS studies indicate that small-scale structure can be directly altered through ``distant'' dynamical interactions by energetic forcing of the large scales. To remove the possibility of stimulating energy transfer between the large- and small-scale motions in these long-range interactions, we here perturb the large scale structure without altering its energy content by suddenly altering only the phases of large-scale Fourier modes. Scale-dependent changes in turbulence structure appear as a non zero difference field between two simulations from identical initial conditions of isotropic decaying turbulence, one perturbed and one unperturbed. We find that the large-scale phase perturbations leave the evolution of the energy spectrum virtually unchanged relative to the unperturbed turbulence. The difference field, on the other hand, is strongly affected by the perturbation. Most importantly, the time scale τ characterizing the change in in turbulence structure at spatial scale r shortly after initiating a change in large-scale structure decreases with decreasing turbulence scale r. Thus, structural information is transferred directly from the large- to the smallest-scale motions in the absence of direct energy transfer---a long-range effect which cannot be explained by a linear mechanism such as rapid distortion theory. * Supported by ARO grant DAAL03-92-G-0117

Multi-Scale Analysis for Characterizing Near-Field Constituent Concentrations in the Context of a Macro-Scale Semi-Lagrangian Numerical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yearsley, J. R.

2017-12-01

The semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme employed by RBM, a model for simulating time-dependent, one-dimensional water quality constituents in advection-dominated rivers, is highly scalable both in time and space. Although the model has been used at length scales of 150 meters and time scales of three hours, the majority of applications have been at length scales of 1/16th degree latitude/longitude (about 5 km) or greater and time scales of one day. Applications of the method at these scales has proven successful for characterizing the impacts of climate change on water temperatures in global rivers and on the vulnerability of thermoelectric power plants to changes in cooling water temperatures in large river systems. However, local effects can be very important in terms of ecosystem impacts, particularly in the case of developing mixing zones for wastewater discharges with pollutant loadings limited by regulations imposed by the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA). Mixing zone analyses have usually been decoupled from large-scale watershed influences by developing scenarios that represent critical scenarios for external processes associated with streamflow and weather conditions . By taking advantage of the particle-tracking characteristics of the numerical scheme, RBM can provide results at any point in time within the model domain. We develop a proof of concept for locations in the river network where local impacts such as mixing zones may be important. Simulated results from the semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme are treated as input to a finite difference model of the two-dimensional diffusion equation for water quality constituents such as water temperature or toxic substances. Simulations will provide time-dependent, two-dimensional constituent concentration in the near-field in response to long-term basin-wide processes. These results could provide decision support to water quality managers for evaluating mixing zone characteristics.

Measuring disease progression in early Parkinson disease: the National Institutes of Health Exploratory Trials in Parkinson Disease (NET-PD) experience.

PubMed

Parashos, Sotirios A; Luo, Sheng; Biglan, Kevin M; Bodis-Wollner, Ivan; He, Bo; Liang, Grace S; Ross, G Webster; Tilley, Barbara C; Shulman, Lisa M

2014-06-01

Optimizing assessments of rate of progression in Parkinson disease (PD) is important in designing clinical trials, especially of potential disease-modifying agents. To examine the value of measures of impairment, disability, and quality of life in assessing progression in early PD. Inception cohort analysis of data from 413 patients with early, untreated PD who were enrolled in 2 multicenter, randomized, double-blind clinical trials. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 5 treatments (67 received creatine, 66 received minocycline, 71 received coenzyme Q10, 71 received GPI-1485, and 138 received placebo). We assessed the association between the rates of change in measures of impairment, disability, and quality of life and time to initiation of symptomatic treatment. Time between baseline assessment and need for the initiation of symptomatic pharmaceutical treatment for PD was the primary indicator of disease progression. After adjusting for baseline confounding variables with regard to the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) Part II score, the UPDRS Part III score, the modified Rankin Scale score, level of education, and treatment group, we assessed the rate of change for the following measurements: the UPDRS Part II score; the UPDRS Part III score; the Schwab and England Independence Scale score (which measures activities of daily living); the Total Functional Capacity scale; the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire, summary index, and activities of daily living subscale; and version 2 of the 12-item Short Form Health Survey Physical Summary and Mental Summary. Variables reaching the statistical threshold in univariate analysis were entered into a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model using time to symptomatic treatment as the dependent variable. More rapid change (ie, worsening) in the UPDRS Part II score (hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for 1 scale unit change per 6 months), the UPDRS Part III score (hazard ratio, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.06-1.13] for 1 scale unit change per 6 months), and the Schwab and England Independence Scale score (hazard ratio, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.12-1.48] for 5 percentage point change per 6 months) was associated with earlier need for symptomatic therapy. AND RELEVANCE In early PD, the UPDRS Part II score and Part III score and the Schwab and England Independence Scale score can be used to measure disease progression, whereas the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire and summary index, Total Functional Capacity scale, and the 12-item Short Form Health Survey Physical Summary and Mental Summary are not sensitive to change. clinicaltrials.gov Identifiers: NCT00063193 and NCT00076492.

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vane, Deborah

1993-01-01

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U; Wang, Huajian; Costa, M Mafalda; Bjerrum, Christian J; Connelly, James N; Zhang, Baomin; Bian, Lizeng; Canfield, Donald E

2015-03-24

Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes in the location of the Xiamaling relative to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. On shorter time scales, and within a precisely calibrated stratigraphic framework, cyclicity in sediment geochemical dynamics is consistent with orbital control. In particular, sediment geochemical fluctuations reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment.

Direct measurement of sub-surface mass change using the variable-baseline gravity gradient method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Güntner, Andreas; Abe, Maiko; Creutzfeldt, Benjamin

2014-01-01

Time-lapse gravity data provide a direct, non-destructive method to monitor mass changes at scales from cm to km. But, the effectively infinite spatial sensitivity of gravity measurements can make it difficult to isolate the signal of interest. The variable-baseline gravity gradient method, based on the difference of measurements between two gravimeters, is an alternative to the conventional approach of individually modeling all sources of mass and elevation change. This approach can improve the signal-to-noise ratio for many applications by removing the contributions of Earth tides, loading, and other signals that have the same effect on both gravimeters. At the same time, this approach can focus the support volume within a relatively small user-defined region of the subsurface. The method is demonstrated using paired superconducting gravimeters to make for the first time a large-scale, non-invasive measurement of infiltration wetting front velocity and change in water content above the wetting front.

Detecting climate-change responses of plants and soil organic matter using isotopomers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleucher, Jürgen; Ehlers, Ina; Segura, Javier; Haei, Mahsa; Augusti, Angela; Köhler, Iris; Zuidema, Pieter; Nilsson, Mats; Öquist, Mats

2015-04-01

Responses of vegetation and soils to environmental changes will strongly influence future climate, and responses on century time scales are most important for feedbacks on the carbon cycle, climate models, prediction of crop productivity, and for adaptation to climate change. That plants respond to increasing CO2 on century time scales has been proven by changes in stomatal index, but very little is known beyond this. In soil, the complexity of soil organic matter (SOM) has hampered a sufficient understanding of the temperature sensitivity of SOM turnover. Here we present new stable isotope methodology that allows detecting shifts in metabolism on long time scales, and elucidating SOM turnover on the molecular level. Compound-specific isotope analysis measures isotope ratios of defined metabolites, but as average of the entire molecule. Here we demonstrate how much more detailed information can be obtained from analyses of intramolecular distributions of stable isotopes, so-called isotopomer abundances. As key tool, we use nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, which allows detecting isotope abundance with intramolecular resolution and without risk for isotope fractionation during analysis. Enzyme isotope fractionations create non-random isotopomer patterns in biochemical metabolites. At natural isotope abundance, these patterns continuously store metabolic information. We present a strategy how these patterns can be used as to extract signals on plant physiology, climate variables, and their interactions. Applied in retrospective analyses to herbarium samples and tree-ring series, we detect century-time-scale metabolic changes in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, with no evidence for acclimatory reactions by the plants. In trees, the increase in photosynthesis expected from increasing CO2 ("CO2 fertilization) was diminished by increasing temperatures, which resolves the discrepancy between expected increases in photosynthesis and commonly observed lack of biomass increases. Isotopomer patterns are a rich source of metabolic information, which can be retrieved from archives of plant material covering centuries and millennia, the time scales relevant for climate change. Boreal soils contain a huge carbon pool that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Biological activity persists in soils under frozen conditions, but it is largely unknown what controls it, and whether it differs from unfrozen conditions. In an incubation experiment, we traced the metabolism of 13C-labeled cellulose by soil microorganisms. NMR analysis revealed that the 13C label was converted both to respired CO2 and to phospholipid fatty acids, indicating that the polymeric substrate cellulose entered both catabolic and anabolic pathways. Both applications demonstrate a fundamental advantage of isotopomer analysis, namely that their abundances directly reflect biochemical processes. This allows obtaining metabolic information on millennial time scales, thus bridging between plant-physiology and paleo sciences. It may also be key to characterizing SOM with sufficient resolution to understand current biogeochemical fluxes involving SOM and to identify molecular components and organisms that are key for SOM turnover.

Hot spots, hot moments and time-span of changes in drivers and their responses on carbon cycling in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomelleri, E.; Forkel, M.; Fuchs, R.; Jung, M.; Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Weber, U.

2012-12-01

The objective of this study is to provide a complete quantitative assessment of the annual to decadal variability, hotspots of changes and the temporal magnitude of regional trends and variability for the main drivers of carbon cycle like climate and land use and their responses for Europe. For this purpose we used an harmonized climatic data set (ERA Interim and WATCH) and an historical land-use change reconstruction (HILDAv1, Fuchs in prep.). Both the data sets cover the period 1900-2010 and have a 0.25 deg spatial resolution. As driver response we used two different empirically up-scaled GPP fields: the first (MTE) obtained by the application of model trees (Jung et al. 2009) and a second (LUE) based on a light use efficiency model (Tomelleri in prep.). Both the approaches are based on the up-scaling of Fluxnet observations. The response fields have monthly temporal resolution and are limited to the period 1982-2011. We estimated break-points in time series of driver and response variables based on the method of Bai and Perron (2003) to identify changes in trends. This method was implemented in Verbesselt et al. 2010 and applied by deJong et al. 2011 to detect phenological and abrupt changes and trends in vegetation activity based on satellite-derived vegetation index time series. The analysis of drivers and responses allowed to identify the dominant factors driving the biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange. The synchronous analysis of climatic drivers and land use change allowed us to explain most of the temporal and spatial variability showing that in the regions and time period where the most land use change occurred the climatic drivers are not sufficient to explain trends and oscillation in carbon cycling. The comparison of our analysis for the up-scaling methods shows some agreement: we found inconsistency in the spatial and temporal patterns in regions where the Fluxnet network is less dense. This can be explained by the conceptual difference in the up-scaling methods: while one is on pixel basis (MTE) the other (LUE) is up-scaling model parameters by bioclimatic regions. Our study shows the value of up-scaling methods for understanding the spatial-temporal variability of carbon cycling and how these are a valuable tool for spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, the use of climatic drivers and land-use change demonstrated the need of taking natural and anthropogenic drivers into consideration for explaining trends and oscillations. Possibly a further analysis including detailed management practices for forestry and agriculture would help in explaining the remaining variance. References: Bai, J., Perron, P.: Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 2003. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., and Bondeau, A.: Towards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2009. Verbesselt, J., Hyndman, R., Newnham, G., Culvenor, D.: Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment,114(1), 2010. de Jong, R., Verbesselt, J., Schaepman, M.E., Bruin, S.: Trend changes in global greening and browning: contribution of short-term trends to longer-term change. Global Change Biology, 18, 2011.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul

2016-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning retrospective predictions at the decadal (5-years), seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; van den Hurk, B.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2016-12-01

The European consortium earth system model (EC-Earth; http://www.ec-earth.org) has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-08-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

PubMed

Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2012-04-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

PubMed Central

Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2013-01-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g., phenology), space (e.g., range) and self (e.g., physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. PMID:22257223

Utilization of Preventive Dental Services Before and After Health Insurance Covered Dental Scaling in Korea.

PubMed

Jang, Young-Eun; Kim, Chun-Bae; Kim, Nam-Hee

2017-01-01

Health insurance reduces the economic burden of diseases and enhances access to medical services. This study compared, among social classes, the utilization of preventive dental service before and after health insurance covered dental scaling. We analyzed time-series secondary data for 3  175  584 participants from 253 survey areas nationwide in the Community Health Survey (2009-2014) in Korea. The weighted proportion of participants who underwent dental scaling was defined as the scaling rate. Data regarding demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were collected. Scaling rates continuously increased over the 6-year period, particularly in 2014. College graduates had significantly higher scaling rates. Monthly income and scaling rate were positively related. Differences by education decreased over time. Differences by income were particularly high between 2012 and 2014. For women, the temporal rate was 2 times higher for professionals than for the unemployed. Despite increased dental scaling rates since the health coverage change in 2013, socioeconomic differences persist.

Selective visual scaling of time-scale processes facilitates broadband learning of isometric force frequency tracking.

PubMed

King, Adam C; Newell, Karl M

2015-10-01

The experiment investigated the effect of selectively augmenting faster time scales of visual feedback information on the learning and transfer of continuous isometric force tracking tasks to test the generality of the self-organization of 1/f properties of force output. Three experimental groups tracked an irregular target pattern either under a standard fixed gain condition or with selectively enhancement in the visual feedback display of intermediate (4-8 Hz) or high (8-12 Hz) frequency components of the force output. All groups reduced tracking error over practice, with the error lowest in the intermediate scaling condition followed by the high scaling and fixed gain conditions, respectively. Selective visual scaling induced persistent changes across the frequency spectrum, with the strongest effect in the intermediate scaling condition and positive transfer to novel feedback displays. The findings reveal an interdependence of the timescales in the learning and transfer of isometric force output frequency structures consistent with 1/f process models of the time scales of motor output variability.

Lizard thermal trait variation at multiple scales: a review.

PubMed

Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Chown, Steven L

2014-01-01

Thermal trait variation is of fundamental importance to forecasting the impacts of environmental change on lizard diversity. Here, we review the literature for patterns of variation in traits of upper and lower sub-lethal temperature limits, temperature preference and active body temperature in the field, in relation to space, time and phylogeny. Through time, we focus on the direction and magnitude of trait change within days, among seasons and as a consequence of acclimation. Across space, we examine altitudinal and latitudinal patterns, incorporating inter-specific analyses at regional and global scales. This synthesis highlights the consistency or lack thereof, of thermal trait responses, the relative magnitude of change among traits and several knowledge gaps identified in the relationships examined. We suggest that physiological information is becoming essential for forecasting environmental change sensitivity of lizards by providing estimates of plasticity and evolutionary scope.

Space-time analysis of snow cover change in the Romanian Carpathians (2001-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Cosmin Sandric, Ionut

2017-04-01

Snow cover is recognized as an essential climate variable, highly sensitive to the ongoing climate warming, which plays an important role in regulating mountain ecosystems. Evidence from the existing weather stations located above 800 m over the last 50 years points out that the climate of the Romanian Carpathians is visibly changing, showing an ongoing and consistent warming process. Quantifying and attributing the changes in snow cover on various spatial and temporal scales have a great environmental and socio-economic importance for this mountain region. The study is revealing the inter-seasonal changes in the timing and distribution of snow cover across the Romanian Carpathians, by combining gridded snow data (CARPATCLIM dataset, 1961-2010) and remote sensing data (2001-2016) in specific space-time assessment at regional scale. The geostatistical approach applied in this study, based on a GIS hotspot analysis, takes advantage of all the dimensions in the datasets, in order to understand the space-time trends in this climate variable at monthly time-scale. The MODIS AQUA and TERRA images available from 2001 to 2016 have been processed using ArcGIS for Desktop and Python programming language. All the images were masked out with the Carpathians boundary. Only the pixels with snow have been retained for analysis. The regional trends in snow cover distribution and timing have been analysed using Space-Time cube with ArcGIS for Desktop, according with Esri documentation using the Mann-Kendall trend test on every location with data as an independent bin time-series test. The study aimed also to assess the location of emerging hotspots of snow cover change in Carpathians. These hotspots have been calculated using Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for each bin using Hot Spot Analysis implemented in ArcGIS for Desktop. On regional scale, snow cover appear highly sensitive to the decreasing trends in air temperatures and land surface temperatures, combined with the decrease in seasonal precipitation, especially at lower elevations in all the three divisions of the Romanian Carpathians (generally below 1,700-1,800 m). The space-time patterns of snow cover change are dominated by a significant decreasing trend of snow days and earlier spring snow melt. The key findings of this study provides robust indication of a decreasing snow trends across the Carpathian Mountain region and could provide valuable spatial and temporal snow information for other related research fields as well as for an effective environmental monitoring in the mountain ecosystems of the Carpathian region

Deterministic object tracking using Gaussian ringlet and directional edge features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krieger, Evan W.; Sidike, Paheding; Aspiras, Theus; Asari, Vijayan K.

2017-10-01

Challenges currently existing for intensity-based histogram feature tracking methods in wide area motion imagery (WAMI) data include object structural information distortions, background variations, and object scale change. These issues are caused by different pavement or ground types and from changing the sensor or altitude. All of these challenges need to be overcome in order to have a robust object tracker, while attaining a computation time appropriate for real-time processing. To achieve this, we present a novel method, Directional Ringlet Intensity Feature Transform (DRIFT), which employs Kirsch kernel filtering for edge features and a ringlet feature mapping for rotational invariance. The method also includes an automatic scale change component to obtain accurate object boundaries and improvements for lowering computation times. We evaluated the DRIFT algorithm on two challenging WAMI datasets, namely Columbus Large Image Format (CLIF) and Large Area Image Recorder (LAIR), to evaluate its robustness and efficiency. Additional evaluations on general tracking video sequences are performed using the Visual Tracker Benchmark and Visual Object Tracking 2014 databases to demonstrate the algorithms ability with additional challenges in long complex sequences including scale change. Experimental results show that the proposed approach yields competitive results compared to state-of-the-art object tracking methods on the testing datasets.

The Change in Oceanic O2 Inventory Associated with Recent Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Ralph; Garcia, Hernan

2002-01-01

Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O2 inventory and an associated O2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol O2 per Joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O2 solubility, indicating that most of the O2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O2 inventory through the 1990's is estimated to be 0.3 - 0.4 x 10(exp 14) mol O2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.

A global cyclostratigraphic framework constrains the timing and pacing of environmental changes over the Late Devonian (Frasnian - Famennian) mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Vleeschouwer, David; Da Silva, Anne-Christine; Day, James E.; Whalen, Michael; Claeys, Philippe

2016-04-01

Milankovitch cycles (obliquity, eccentricity and precession) result in changes in the distribution of solar energy over seasons, as well as over latitudes, on time scales of ten thousands of years to millions of years. These changing patterns in insolation have induced significant variations in Earth's past climate over the last 4.5 billion years. Cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology utilize the geologic imprint of such quasi-cyclic climatic variations to measure geologic time. In recent years, major improvements of the Geologic Time Scale have been proposed through the application of cyclostratigraphy, mostly for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic (Gradstein et al., 2012). However, the field of Paleozoic cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology is still in its infancy and the application of cyclostratigraphic techniques in the Paleozoic allows for a whole new range of research questions. For example, unraveling the timing and pacing of environmental changes over the Late Devonian mass extinction on a 105-year time-scale concerns such a novel research question. Here, we present a global cyclostratigraphic framework for late Frasnian to early Famennian climatic and environmental change, through the integration of globally distributed sections. The backbone of this relative time scale consists of previously published cyclostratigraphies for western Canada and Poland (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2012; De Vleeschouwer et al., 2013). We elaborate this Euramerican base by integrating new proxy data -interpreted in terms of astronomical climate forcing- from the Iowa basin (USA, magnetic susceptibility and carbon isotope data) and Belgium (XRF and carbon isotope data). Next, we expand this well-established cyclostratigraphic framework towards the Paleo-Tethys Ocean, using magnetic susceptibility and carbon isotope records from the Fuhe section in South China (Whalen et al., 2015). The resulting global cyclostratigraphic framework implies an important refinement of the late Frasnian to early Famennian stratigraphy, but also allows for an evaluation of the role of astronomical forcing in perturbing the global carbon cycle and pacing anoxic conditions throughout the Late Devonian mass extinction event. The late Frasnian anoxic Kellwasser events, for example, each represent only a portion of a 405-kyr eccentricity cycle, with the onset of both events separated by 500-600 kyr. References: De Vleeschouwer, D., Whalen, M. T., Day, J. E., and Claeys, P., 2012, Cyclostratigraphic calibration of the Frasnian (Late Devonian) time scale (western Alberta, Canada): Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 124, no. 5-6, p. 928-942. De Vleeschouwer, D., Rakociński, M., Racki, G., Bond, D. P., Sobień, K., and Claeys, P., 2013, The astronomical rhythm of Late-Devonian climate change (Kowala section, Holy Cross Mountains, Poland): Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 365, p. 25-37. Gradstein, F. M., Ogg, J. G., Schmitz, M., and Ogg, G., 2012, The Geologic Time Scale 2012 2-Volume Set, Elsevier. Whalen, M. T., Śliwiński, M. G., Payne, J. H., Day, J. E., Chen, D., and da Silva, A.-C., 2015, Chemostratigraphy and magnetic susceptibility of the Late Devonian Frasnian-Famennian transition in western Canada and southern China: implications for carbon and nutrient cycling and mass extinction: Geological Society, London, Special Publications, v. 414.

Characterizing and understanding the climatic determinism of high- to low-frequency variations in precipitation in northwestern France using a coupled wavelet multiresolution/statistical downscaling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Hannah, David; Lavers, David; Fossa, Manuel; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime

2017-04-01

Geophysical signals oscillate over several time-scales that explain different amount of their overall variability and may be related to different physical processes. Characterizing and understanding such variabilities in hydrological variations and investigating their determinism is one important issue in a context of climate change, as these variabilities can be occasionally superimposed to long-term trend possibly due to climate change. It is also important to refine our understanding of time-scale dependent linkages between large-scale climatic variations and hydrological responses on the regional or local-scale. Here we investigate such links by conducting a wavelet multiresolution statistical dowscaling approach of precipitation in northwestern France (Seine river catchment) over 1950-2016 using sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) as indicators of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, respectively. Previous results demonstrated that including multiresolution decomposition in a statistical downscaling model (within a so-called multiresolution ESD model) using SLP as large-scale predictor greatly improved simulation of low-frequency, i.e. interannual to interdecadal, fluctuations observed in precipitation. Building on these results, continuous wavelet transform of simulated precipiation using multiresolution ESD confirmed the good performance of the model to better explain variability at all time-scales. A sensitivity analysis of the model to the choice of the scale and wavelet function used was also tested. It appeared that whatever the wavelet used, the model performed similarly. The spatial patterns of SLP found as the best predictors for all time-scales, which resulted from the wavelet decomposition, revealed different structures according to time-scale, showing possible different determinisms. More particularly, some low-frequency components ( 3.2-yr and 19.3-yr) showed a much wide-spread spatial extentsion across the Atlantic. Moreover, in accordance with other previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP and precipitation on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation. Current works are now conducted including SST over the Atlantic in order to get further insights into this mechanism.

Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting using Spatial-scale Decomposition Method for Urban Flood Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Lee, B.; Nakakita, E.; Lee, G.

2016-12-01

Recent climate changes and abnormal weather phenomena have resulted in increased occurrences of localized torrential rainfall. Urban areas in Korea have suffered from localized heavy rainfall, including the notable Seoul flood disaster in 2010 and 2011. The urban hydrological environment has changed in relation to precipitation, such as reduced concentration time, a decreased storage rate, and increased peak discharge. These changes have altered and accelerated the severity of damage to urban areas. In order to prevent such urban flash flood damages, we have to secure the lead time for evacuation through the improvement of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). The purpose of this research is to improve the QPF products using spatial-scale decomposition method for considering the life time of storm and to assess the accuracy between traditional QPF method and proposed method in terms of urban flood management. The layout of this research is as below. First, this research applies the image filtering to separate the spatial-scale of rainfall field. Second, the separated small and large-scale rainfall fields are extrapolated by each different forecasting method. Third, forecasted rainfall fields are combined at each lead time. Finally, results of this method are evaluated and compared with the results of uniform advection model for urban flood modeling. It is expected that urban flood information using improved QPF will help to reduce casualties and property damage caused by urban flooding through this research.

Potential Effects of the Overburden Argument on the Funding of Rural Schools. Final Report to the New York State Special Task Force on Equity and Excellence in Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monk, David H.; And Others

This report presents attempts to understand more about how six background characteristics (small scale, population sparsity, district isolation within a BOCES (Boards of Cooperative Educational Service), interaction between a change in enrollment and initial scale of the district, rapid changes in full value property wealth over time, and large…

Is Earth F**ked? Dynamical Futility of Global Environmental Management and Possibilities for Sustainability via Direct Action Activism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

wErnEr, B.

2012-12-01

Environmental challenges are dynamically generated within the dominant global culture principally by the mismatch between short-time-scale market and political forces driving resource extraction/use and longer-time-scale accommodations of the Earth system to these changes. Increasing resource demand is leading to the development of two-way, nonlinear interactions between human societies and environmental systems that are becoming global in extent, either through globalized markets and other institutions or through coupling to global environmental systems such as climate. These trends are further intensified by dissipation-reducing technological advances in transactions, communication and transport, which suppress emergence of longer-time-scale economic and political levels of description and facilitate long-distance connections, and by predictive environmental modeling, which strengthens human connections to a short-time-scale virtual Earth, and weakens connections to the longer time scales of the actual Earth. Environmental management seeks to steer fast scale economic and political interests of a coupled human-environmental system towards longer-time-scale consideration of benefits and costs by operating within the confines of the dominant culture using a linear, engineering-type connection to the system. Perhaps as evidenced by widespread inability to meaningfully address such global environmental challenges as climate change and soil degradation, nonlinear connections reduce the ability of managers to operate outside coupled human-environmental systems, decreasing their effectiveness in steering towards sustainable interactions and resulting in managers slaved to short-to-intermediate-term interests. In sum, the dynamics of the global coupled human-environmental system within the dominant culture precludes management for stable, sustainable pathways and promotes instability. Environmental direct action, resistance taken from outside the dominant culture, as in protests, blockades and sabotage by indigenous peoples, workers, anarchists and other activist groups, increases dissipation within the coupled system over fast to intermediate scales and pushes for changes in the dominant culture that favor transition to a stable, sustainable attractor. These dynamical relationships are illustrated and explored using a numerical model that simulates the short-, intermediate- and long-time-scale dynamics of the coupled human-environmental system. At fast scales, economic and political interests exploit environmental resources through a maze of environmental management and resistance, guided by virtual Earth predictions. At intermediate scales, managers become slaved to economic and political interests, which adapt to and repress resistance, and resistance is guided by patterns of environmental destruction. At slow scales, resistance interacts with the cultural context, which co-evolves with the environment. The transition from unstable dynamics to sustainability is sensitively dependent on the level of participation in and repression of resistance. Because of their differing impact inside and outside the dominant culture, virtual Earth predictions can either promote or oppose sustainability. Supported by the National Science Foundation, Geomorphology and Land Use Dynamics Program.

Land use change and precipitation feedbacks across the Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCurley, K.; Jawitz, J. W.

2017-12-01

We investigated the relationship between agricultural land expansion, resulting in deforestation in the Tropics (South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia), and the local/regional hydroclimatic cycle. We hypothesized that changes in physical catchment properties in recent decades have resulted in measurable impacts on elements of the water budget, specifically evapotranspiration and precipitation. Using high resolution, gridded global precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data, as well as discharge time series (1960-2007) from the Global Runoff Data Center, we computed the components of the water budget on a catchment scale from 81 tropical basins that have experienced land use change. We estimated the landscape-driven component of evapotranspiration for two time periods, 1960-1983 and 1984-2007, and compared it to the relative change in forest cover across time. The findings show a negative relationship between the landscape-driven component of evapotranspiration and deforestation, suggesting that a decrease in forest cover causes a decrease in evapotranspiration. We further illustrate how this dynamic implicates basin-scale water availability due to land use change stimulated by agricultural production, including potential negative feedback of agricultural area expansion onto precipitation recycling.

Solar activity, the QBO, and tropospheric responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinsley, Brian A.; Brown, Geoffrey M.; Scherrer, Philip H.

1989-01-01

The suggestion that galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as modulated by the solar wind are the carriers of the component of solar variability that affects weather and climate has been discussed in the literature for 30 years, and there is now a considerable body of evidence that supports it. Variations of GCR occur with the 11 year solar cycle, matching the time scale of recent results for atmospheric variations, as modulated by the quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial stratospheric winds (the QBO). Variations in GCR occur on the time scale of centuries with a well defined peak in the coldest decade of the little ice age. New evidence is presented on the meteorological responses to GCR variations on the time scale of a few days. These responses include changes in the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere and lower stratosphere in the two days following solar flare related high speed plasma streams and associated GCR decreases, and in decreases in Vorticity Area Index (VAI) following Forbush decreases of GCR. The occurrence of correlations of GCR and meteorological responses on all three time scales strengthens the hypothesis of GCR as carriers of solar variability to the lower atmosphere. Both short and long term tropospheric responses are understandable as changes in the intensity of cyclonic storms initiated by mechanisms involving cloud microphysical and cloud electrification processes, due to changes in local ion production from changes in GCR fluxes and other high energy particles in the MeV to low GeV range. The nature of these mechanisms remains undetermined. Possible stratospheric wind (particularly QBO) effects on the transport of HNO3 and other constituents incorporated in cluster ions and possible condensation and freezing nuclei are considered as relevant to the long term variations.

Estimating Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrous oxide emissions are highly variable in space and time and different methodologies have not agreed closely, especially at small scales. However, as scale increases, so does the agreement between estimates based on soil surface measurements (bottom up approach) and estimates derived from chang...

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolf, Amelia A.; Zavaleta, Erika S; Selmants, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology—the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Wolf, Amelia A; Zavaleta, Erika S; Selmants, Paul C

2017-03-28

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology-the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Fast polarization changes in mm microwave emission of weak multistructured solar bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufmann, P.; Strauss, F. M.; Costa, J. E. R.; Dennis, B. R.

1982-01-01

Circular polarization of weak multistructured solar bursts was measured at mm microwaves with unprecedented sensitivity (0.03 sfu rms) and high time resolution (1ms). It was shown that sudden changes occur in the degree of polarization with time scales of 0.04 to 0.3 s. In most cases the degree of polarization attained maximum values before the maximum flux in both mm microwaves and hard X-rays with time scales of 0.04 to 1.0 s. The timing accuracy in determining the degree of polarization was 40 ms. Physical phenomena are discussed invoking one or a combination of various possible causes for the observed effects. The bursts at mm microwaves were weak compared to the contribution of the preexisting active regions, and therefore the changes in magnetoionic propagation conditions for emerging radiation plays an important role in the observed effects. Composite effects due to more than one polarizing mechanism or more than one polarized spots within the antenna beam are discussed.

Cross-scale interactions: Quantifying multi-scaled cause–effect relationships in macrosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.; Bissell, Edward G.; Bremigan, Mary T.; Downing, John A.; Fergus, Carol E.; Filstrup, Christopher T.; Henry, Emily N.; Lottig, Noah R.; Stanley, Emily H.; Stow, Craig A.; Tan, Pang-Ning; Wagner, Tyler; Webster, Katherine E.

2014-01-01

Ecologists are increasingly discovering that ecological processes are made up of components that are multi-scaled in space and time. Some of the most complex of these processes are cross-scale interactions (CSIs), which occur when components interact across scales. When undetected, such interactions may cause errors in extrapolation from one region to another. CSIs, particularly those that include a regional scaled component, have not been systematically investigated or even reported because of the challenges of acquiring data at sufficiently broad spatial extents. We present an approach for quantifying CSIs and apply it to a case study investigating one such interaction, between local and regional scaled land-use drivers of lake phosphorus. Ultimately, our approach for investigating CSIs can serve as a basis for efforts to understand a wide variety of multi-scaled problems such as climate change, land-use/land-cover change, and invasive species.

Temporal scale dependent interactions between multiple environmental disturbances in microcosm ecosystems.

PubMed

Garnier, Aurélie; Pennekamp, Frank; Lemoine, Mélissa; Petchey, Owen L

2017-12-01

Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods, and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience, and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive, or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short term (i.e. resistance); although no other effects or interactions were statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive, or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of ruthenium dyes for subnanosecond detector fidelity testing in real time transient absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrdin, Martin; Thiagarajan, Viruthachalam; Villette, Sandrine; Espagne, Agathe; Brettel, Klaus

2009-04-01

Transient absorption spectroscopy is a powerful tool for the study of photoreactions on time scales from femtoseconds to seconds. Typically, reactions slower than ˜1 ns are recorded by the "classical" technique; the reaction is triggered by an excitation flash, and absorption changes accompanying the reaction are recorded in real time using a continuous monitoring light beam and a detection system with sufficiently fast response. The pico- and femtosecond region can be accessed by the more recent "pump-probe" technique, which circumvents the difficulties of real time detection on a subnanosecond time scale. This is paid for by accumulation of an excessively large number of shots to sample the reaction kinetics. Hence, it is of interest to extend the classical real time technique as far as possible to the subnanosecond range. In order to identify and minimize detection artifacts common on a subnanosecond scale, like overshoot, ringing, and signal reflections, rigorous testing is required of how the detection system responds to fast changes of the monitoring light intensity. Here, we introduce a novel method to create standard signals for detector fidelity testing on a time scale from a few picoseconds to tens of nanoseconds. The signals result from polarized measurements of absorption changes upon excitation of ruthenium complexes {[Ru(bpy)3]2+ and a less symmetric derivative} by a short laser flash. Two types of signals can be created depending on the polarization of the monitoring light with respect to that of the excitation flash: a fast steplike bleaching at magic angle and a monoexponentially decaying bleaching for parallel polarizations. The lifetime of the decay can be easily varied via temperature and viscosity of the solvent. The method is applied to test the performance of a newly developed real time transient absorption setup with 300 ps time resolution and high sensitivity.

Using Wavelet Analysis To Assist in Identification of Significant Events in Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Heidari, Zahra; Roe, Daniel R; Galindo-Murillo, Rodrigo; Ghasemi, Jahan B; Cheatham, Thomas E

2016-07-25

Long time scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of biological systems are becoming increasingly commonplace due to the availability of both large-scale computational resources and significant advances in the underlying simulation methodologies. Therefore, it is useful to investigate and develop data mining and analysis techniques to quickly and efficiently extract the biologically relevant information from the incredible amount of generated data. Wavelet analysis (WA) is a technique that can quickly reveal significant motions during an MD simulation. Here, the application of WA on well-converged long time scale (tens of μs) simulations of a DNA helix is described. We show how WA combined with a simple clustering method can be used to identify both the physical and temporal locations of events with significant motion in MD trajectories. We also show that WA can not only distinguish and quantify the locations and time scales of significant motions, but by changing the maximum time scale of WA a more complete characterization of these motions can be obtained. This allows motions of different time scales to be identified or ignored as desired.

Contrasting scaling properties of interglacial and glacial climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ditlevsen, Peter; Shao, Zhi-Gang

2017-04-01

Understanding natural climate variability is essential for assessments of climate change. This is reflected in the scaling properties of climate records. The scaling exponents of the interglacial and the glacial climates are fundamentally different. The Holocene record is monofractal, with a scaling exponent H˜0.7. On the contrary, the glacial record is multifractal, with a significantly higher scaling exponent H˜1.2, indicating a longer persistence time and stronger nonlinearities in the glacial climate. The glacial climate is dominated by the strong multi-millennial Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events influencing the long-time correlation. However, by separately analysing the last glacial maximum lacking DO events, here we find the same scaling for that period as for the full glacial period. The unbroken scaling thus indicates that the DO events are part of the natural variability and not externally triggered. At glacial time scales, there is a scale break to a trivial scaling, contrasting the DO events from the similarly saw-tooth-shaped glacial cycles. Ref: Zhi-Gang Shao and Peter Ditlevsen, Nature Comm. 7, 10951, 2016

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Natural variability of atmospheric temperatures and geomagnetic intensity over a wide range of time scales.

PubMed

Pelletier, Jon D

2002-02-19

The majority of numerical models in climatology and geomagnetism rely on deterministic finite-difference techniques and attempt to include as many empirical constraints on the many processes and boundary conditions applicable to their very complex systems. Despite their sophistication, many of these models are unable to reproduce basic aspects of climatic or geomagnetic dynamics. We show that a simple stochastic model, which treats the flux of heat energy in the atmosphere by convective instabilities with random advection and diffusive mixing, does a remarkable job at matching the observed power spectrum of historical and proxy records for atmospheric temperatures from time scales of one day to one million years (Myr). With this approach distinct changes in the power-spectral form can be associated with characteristic time scales of ocean mixing and radiative damping. Similarly, a simple model of the diffusion of magnetic intensity in Earth's core coupled with amplification and destruction of the local intensity can reproduce the observed 1/f noise behavior of Earth's geomagnetic intensity from time scales of 1 (Myr) to 100 yr. In addition, the statistics of the fluctuations in the polarity reversal rate from time scales of 1 Myr to 100 Myr are consistent with the hypothesis that reversals are the result of variations in 1/f noise geomagnetic intensity above a certain threshold, suggesting that reversals may be associated with internal fluctuations rather than changes in mantle thermal or magnetic boundary conditions.

Natural variability of atmospheric temperatures and geomagnetic intensity over a wide range of time scales

PubMed Central

Pelletier, Jon D.

2002-01-01

The majority of numerical models in climatology and geomagnetism rely on deterministic finite-difference techniques and attempt to include as many empirical constraints on the many processes and boundary conditions applicable to their very complex systems. Despite their sophistication, many of these models are unable to reproduce basic aspects of climatic or geomagnetic dynamics. We show that a simple stochastic model, which treats the flux of heat energy in the atmosphere by convective instabilities with random advection and diffusive mixing, does a remarkable job at matching the observed power spectrum of historical and proxy records for atmospheric temperatures from time scales of one day to one million years (Myr). With this approach distinct changes in the power-spectral form can be associated with characteristic time scales of ocean mixing and radiative damping. Similarly, a simple model of the diffusion of magnetic intensity in Earth's core coupled with amplification and destruction of the local intensity can reproduce the observed 1/f noise behavior of Earth's geomagnetic intensity from time scales of 1 (Myr) to 100 yr. In addition, the statistics of the fluctuations in the polarity reversal rate from time scales of 1 Myr to 100 Myr are consistent with the hypothesis that reversals are the result of variations in 1/f noise geomagnetic intensity above a certain threshold, suggesting that reversals may be associated with internal fluctuations rather than changes in mantle thermal or magnetic boundary conditions. PMID:11875208

Recent Trends in Local-Scale Marine Biodiversity Reflect Community Structure and Human Impacts.

PubMed

Elahi, Robin; O'Connor, Mary I; Byrnes, Jarrett E K; Dunic, Jillian; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Hensel, Marc J S; Kearns, Patrick J

2015-07-20

The modern biodiversity crisis reflects global extinctions and local introductions. Human activities have dramatically altered rates and scales of processes that regulate biodiversity at local scales. Reconciling the threat of global biodiversity loss with recent evidence of stability at fine spatial scales is a major challenge and requires a nuanced approach to biodiversity change that integrates ecological understanding. With a new dataset of 471 diversity time series spanning from 1962 to 2015 from marine coastal ecosystems, we tested (1) whether biodiversity changed at local scales in recent decades, and (2) whether we can ignore ecological context (e.g., proximate human impacts, trophic level, spatial scale) and still make informative inferences regarding local change. We detected a predominant signal of increasing species richness in coastal systems since 1962 in our dataset, though net species loss was associated with localized effects of anthropogenic impacts. Our geographically extensive dataset is unlikely to be a random sample of marine coastal habitats; impacted sites (3% of our time series) were underrepresented relative to their global presence. These local-scale patterns do not contradict the prospect of accelerating global extinctions but are consistent with local species loss in areas with direct human impacts and increases in diversity due to invasions and range expansions in lower impact areas. Attempts to detect and understand local biodiversity trends are incomplete without information on local human activities and ecological context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busuioc, A.; Storch, H. von; Schnur, R.

Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). Themore » climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in time-slice mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 x CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.« less

Exploring an urban system's dependence on the environment as a source and a sink: the city of Rome (Italy) across space and time scales.

PubMed

Ascione, Marco; Bargigli, Silvia; Campanella, Luigi; Ulgiati, Sergio

2011-05-23

The material, energy and environmental flows supporting the growth and welfare of the city of Rome, during a recent forty-year period (from 1962 to 2002) were investigated in order to understand the resource basis of its present welfare and lifestyle. The study focused on the local scale of the urban system (resources actually used within the system's boundary) as well as on the larger regional and national scales where resources come from. Assessing the resource use change over time allowed to understand what are the main drivers of lifestyle changes of the local population. In particular, while the direct, local-scale use of the main material and energy resources exhibits a quadratic growth over time, the total (direct+indirect) consumption on the scale of the global economy is always 3-4 times higher, is so highlighting how much of a city's growth depends on economic and production activities that develop outside of its boundaries. Water use shows an even more alarming trend, in that the indirect consumption grows much faster, suggesting a shift from the use of a less water-intensive mix of products to a different mix that requires much more water in its industrial production. Such trend calls for increased awareness of the water footprint of goods used as well as increased efficiency in water management by both industries and households. The evolution of resource use and standard of living also affects the release of airborne emissions, an issue that is becoming crucial due to concerns for climate change and urban air pollution. The extent of such additional environmental burden is also explored in the present paper. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Source motion detection, estimation, and compensation for underwater acoustics inversion by wideband ambiguity lag-Doppler filtering.

PubMed

Josso, Nicolas F; Ioana, Cornel; Mars, Jérôme I; Gervaise, Cédric

2010-12-01

Acoustic channel properties in a shallow water environment with moving source and receiver are difficult to investigate. In fact, when the source-receiver relative position changes, the underwater environment causes multipath and Doppler scale changes on the transmitted signal over low-to-medium frequencies (300 Hz-20 kHz). This is the result of a combination of multiple paths propagation, source and receiver motions, as well as sea surface motion or water column fast changes. This paper investigates underwater acoustic channel properties in a shallow water (up to 150 m depth) and moving source-receiver conditions using extracted time-scale features of the propagation channel model for low-to-medium frequencies. An average impulse response of one transmission is estimated using the physical characteristics of propagation and the wideband ambiguity plane. Since a different Doppler scale should be considered for each propagating signal, a time-warping filtering method is proposed to estimate the channel time delay and Doppler scale attributes for each propagating path. The proposed method enables the estimation of motion-compensated impulse responses, where different Doppler scaling factors are considered for the different time delays. It was validated for channel profiles using real data from the BASE'07 experiment conducted by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Undersea Research Center in the shallow water environment of the Malta Plateau, South Sicily. This paper provides a contribution to many field applications including passive ocean tomography with unknown natural sources position and movement. Another example is active ocean tomography where sources motion enables to rapidly cover one operational area for rapid environmental assessment and hydrophones may be drifting in order to avoid additional flow noise.

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Self-Organized Evolution of Sandy Coastline Shapes: Connections with Shoreline Erosion Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Ashton, A.

2002-12-01

Landward movement of the shoreline severely impacts property owners and communities where structures and infrastructure are built near the coast. While sea level rise will increase the average rate of coastal erosion, even a slight gradient in wave-driven alongshore sediment flux will locally overwhelm that effect, causing either shoreline accretion or enhanced erosion. Recent analysis shows that because of the nonlinear relationship between alongshore sediment flux and the angle between deep water wave crests and local shoreline orientation, in some wave climates a straight coastline is unstable (Ashton et al., Nature, 2001). When deep-water waves approach from angles greater than the one that maximizes alongshore flux, in concave-seaward shoreline segments sediment flux will diverge, causing erosion. Similarly, convex regions such as the crests of perturbations on an otherwise straight shoreline will experience accretion; perturbations will grow. When waves approach from smaller angles, the sign of the relationship between shoreline curvature and shoreline change is reversed, but any deviation from a perfectly straight coastline will still result in alongshore-inhomogeneous shoreline change. A numerical model designed to explore the long-term effects of this instability operating over a spatially extended alongshore domain has shown that as perturbations grow to finite amplitude and interact with each other, large-scale coastline structures can emerge. The character of the local and non-local interactions, and the resulting emergent structures, depends on the wave climate. The 100-km scale capes and cuspate forelands that form much of the coast of the Carolinas, USA, provides one possible natural example. Our modeling suggests that on such a shoreline, continued interactions between large-scale structures will cause continued large-scale change in coastline shape. Consequently, some coastline segments will tend to experience accentuated erosion. Communities established in these areas face discouraging future prospects. Attempts can be made to arrest the shoreline retreat on large scales-for example through large beach nourishment projects or policies that allow pervasive hard stabilization (e.g. seawall, jetties) along a coastline segment. However, even if such attempts are successful for a significant period of time, the pinning in place of some parts of an otherwise dynamic system will change the large-scale evolution of the coastline, altering the future erosion/accretion experienced at other, perhaps distant, locations. Simple properties of alongshore sediment transport could also be relevant to alongshore-inhomogeneous shoreline change (including erosion 'hot spots') on shorter time scales and smaller spatial scales. We are comparing predictions arising from the modeling, and from analysis of alongshore transport as a function of shoreline orientation, to recent observations of shoreline change ranging across spatial scales from 100s of meters to 10s of kilometers, and time scales from days to decades (List and Farris, Coastal Sediments,1999; Tebbens et al., PNAS, 2002). Considering that many other processes and factors can also influence shoreline change, initial results show a surprising degree of correlation between observations and predictions.

Interannual Variability in Amundsen Sea Ice-Shelf Height Change Linked to ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolo, F. S.; Fricker, H. A.; Padman, L.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric and sea-ice conditions around Antarctica, particularly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, respond to climate dynamics in the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual time scales including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been hypothesized that the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including its floating ice shelves, also responds to this climate signal; however, this has not yet been unambiguously demonstrated. We apply multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) to our 18-year (1994-2012) time series of ice-shelf height in the Amundsen Sea (AS) region. This advanced spectral method distinguishes between regular deterministic behavior ("cycles") at sub-decadal time scale and irregular behavior ("noise") at shorter time scales. Although the long-term trends of AS ice-shelf height changes are much larger than the range of interannual variability, the short-term rate of change dh/dt can vary about the trend by more than 50%. The mode of interannual variability in the AS ice-shelf height is strongly correlated with the low-frequency mode of ENSO (periodicity of ~4.5 years) as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index. The ice-shelf height in the AS is expected to respond to changes in precipitation and inflows of warm subsurface Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into the ocean cavities under the ice shelves, altering basal melt rates. Since both of these processes affecting ice-shelf mass balance respond to changes in wind fields for different ENSO states, we expect some correlation between them. We will describe the spatial structure of AS ice-shelf height response to ENSO, and attempt to distinguish the precipitation signal from basal mass balance due to changing CDW inflows.

Large-scale vegetation responses to terrestrial moisture storage changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrew, Robert L.; Guan, Huade; Batelaan, Okke

2017-09-01

The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) is a useful tool for studying vegetation activity and ecosystem performance at a large spatial scale. In this study we use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage (TWS) estimates to examine temporal variability of the NDVI across Australia. We aim to demonstrate a new method that reveals the moisture dependence of vegetation cover at different temporal resolutions. Time series of monthly GRACE TWS anomalies are decomposed into different temporal frequencies using a discrete wavelet transform and analysed against time series of the NDVI anomalies in a stepwise regression. The results show that combinations of different frequencies of decomposed GRACE TWS data explain NDVI temporal variations better than raw GRACE TWS alone. Generally, the NDVI appears to be more sensitive to interannual changes in water storage than shorter changes, though grassland-dominated areas are sensitive to higher-frequencies of water-storage changes. Different types of vegetation, defined by areas of land use type, show distinct differences in how they respond to the changes in water storage, which is generally consistent with our physical understanding. This unique method provides useful insight into how the NDVI is affected by changes in water storage at different temporal scales across land use types.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; Bryan, Frank O.

2017-05-01

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracer age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26-27.2 σθ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; ...

2017-03-17

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

The scaling law of climate change and its relevance to assessing (palaeo)biological responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiessling, Wolfgang; Eichenseer, Kilian

2014-05-01

It is often argued that current rates of climate change are unprecedented in the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of change were often much greater in deep time than they are in history. The most severe global warming in the Phanerozoic, with dramatic consequences for life, probably occurred across the Permian-Triassic (P-T) boundary when an increase of tropical water temperatures of 15° C has been observed to occur over a timespan 0.8 myr (Sun et al. 2012), whereas global ocean warming over the last 50 years was 0.35° C (Burrows et al. 2011). When transforming these data into rates of change the P-T rate was roughly 370 times smaller than the current rate. We argue that the smaller rates of change inferred from geological proxy records are due to a scaling effect, that is, rates of climate change generally decrease with timespan of observation. We compiled from the published literature data on measured or inferred temperature changes and the timespans over which these changes were assessed. Our compilation currently comprises 120 values and covers timespans from 20 to 107 years. A log-log plot of timespan versus rate of temperature change depicts a highly significant correlation (r2 = 0.95) of a power-law relationship with an exponent of -0.87. Warming trends show a slightly lower exponent (-0.84) than cooling trends (-0.89) but the explained variance is better for the scaling of warming trends. Importantly, the scaled warming trend across the P-T boundary is higher than the current rates of warming. Similar scaling effects are well explored for sediment accumulation rates (Sadler 1981) and evolutionary rates (Gingerich 1993). These have been interpreted as being due to breaks in sedimentation and periods of stasis or transient reversals, respectively. In case of climate change, transient reversals in general trends are the most likely explanation for the scaling relationship. Even relatively rapid intervals of warming, such as the Pleistocene interglacials, are not monotonic, but punctuated by short-term cooling intervals. The fossil record tells us that biodiversity responded dramatically to ancient intervals of climate warming. We can now see that the apparently slower rates of change in some mass extinctions (Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic) were greater than today when the scaling law is considered. This reassures us that studying deep time patterns of organismic response to climate change is a worthwhile endeavor that is relevant for predicting the future. References Burrows, M. T., Schoeman, D. S., Buckley, L. B., Moore, P., Poloczanska, E. S., Brander, K. M., Brown, C., Bruno, J. F., Duarte, C. M., Halpern, B. S., Holding, J., Kappel, C. V., Kiessling, W., O'Connor, M. I., Pandolfi, J. M., Parmesan, C., Schwing, F. B., Sydeman, W. J., and Richardson, A. J.: The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems, Science, 334, 652-655, 2011. Gingerich, P. D.: Quantification and comparison of evolutionary rates, American Journal of Science, 293A, 453-478, 1993. Sadler, P. M.: Sediment accumulation rates and the completeness of stratigraphic sections, Journal of Geology, 89, 569-584, 1981. Sun, Y., Joachimski, M. M., Wignall, P. B., Yan, C., Chen, Y., Jiang, H., Wang, L., and Lai, X.: Lethally hot temperatures during the Early Triassic greenhouse, Science, 338, 366-370, 2012.

The Vision Is Set, Now Help Chronicle the Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodin, Terry; Feser, Jason; Herrera, Jose

2012-01-01

The Vision and Change effort to explore and implement needed changes in undergraduate biology education has been ongoing since 2006. It is now time to take stock of changes that have occurred at the faculty and single-course levels, and to consider how to accomplish the larger-scale changes needed at departmental and institutional levels. This…

Catchment Legacies and Time Lags: A Parsimonious Watershed Model to Predict the Effects of Legacy Storage on Nitrogen Export

PubMed Central

Van Meter, Kimberly J.; Basu, Nandita B.

2015-01-01

Nutrient legacies in anthropogenic landscapes, accumulated over decades of fertilizer application, lead to time lags between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. Quantification of such time lags has remained difficult, however, due to an incomplete understanding of controls on nutrient depletion trajectories after changes in land-use or management practices. In this study, we have developed a parsimonious watershed model for quantifying catchment-scale time lags based on both soil nutrient accumulations (biogeochemical legacy) and groundwater travel time distributions (hydrologic legacy). The model accurately predicted the time lags observed in an Iowa watershed that had undergone a 41% conversion of area from row crop to native prairie. We explored the time scales of change for stream nutrient concentrations as a function of both natural and anthropogenic controls, from topography to spatial patterns of land-use change. Our results demonstrate that the existence of biogeochemical nutrient legacies increases time lags beyond those due to hydrologic legacy alone. In addition, we show that the maximum concentration reduction benefits vary according to the spatial pattern of intervention, with preferential conversion of land parcels having the shortest catchment-scale travel times providing proportionally greater concentration reductions as well as faster response times. In contrast, a random pattern of conversion results in a 1:1 relationship between percent land conversion and percent concentration reduction, irrespective of denitrification rates within the landscape. Our modeling framework allows for the quantification of tradeoffs between costs associated with implementation of conservation measures and the time needed to see the desired concentration reductions, making it of great value to decision makers regarding optimal implementation of watershed conservation measures. PMID:25985290

Catchment legacies and time lags: a parsimonious watershed model to predict the effects of legacy storage on nitrogen export.

PubMed

Van Meter, Kimberly J; Basu, Nandita B

2015-01-01

Nutrient legacies in anthropogenic landscapes, accumulated over decades of fertilizer application, lead to time lags between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. Quantification of such time lags has remained difficult, however, due to an incomplete understanding of controls on nutrient depletion trajectories after changes in land-use or management practices. In this study, we have developed a parsimonious watershed model for quantifying catchment-scale time lags based on both soil nutrient accumulations (biogeochemical legacy) and groundwater travel time distributions (hydrologic legacy). The model accurately predicted the time lags observed in an Iowa watershed that had undergone a 41% conversion of area from row crop to native prairie. We explored the time scales of change for stream nutrient concentrations as a function of both natural and anthropogenic controls, from topography to spatial patterns of land-use change. Our results demonstrate that the existence of biogeochemical nutrient legacies increases time lags beyond those due to hydrologic legacy alone. In addition, we show that the maximum concentration reduction benefits vary according to the spatial pattern of intervention, with preferential conversion of land parcels having the shortest catchment-scale travel times providing proportionally greater concentration reductions as well as faster response times. In contrast, a random pattern of conversion results in a 1:1 relationship between percent land conversion and percent concentration reduction, irrespective of denitrification rates within the landscape. Our modeling framework allows for the quantification of tradeoffs between costs associated with implementation of conservation measures and the time needed to see the desired concentration reductions, making it of great value to decision makers regarding optimal implementation of watershed conservation measures.

Characteristic time scales in the American dollar-Mexican peso exchange currency market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose

2002-06-01

Daily fluctuations of the American dollar-Mexican peso exchange currency market are studied using multifractal analysis methods. It is found evidence of multiaffinity of daily fluctuations in the sense that the qth-order (roughness) Hurst exponent Hq varies with changes in q. It is also found that there exist several characteristic time scales ranging from week to year. Accordingly, the market exhibits persistence in the sense that instabilities introduced by market events acting around the characteristic time scales (mainly, quarter and year) would propagate through the future market activity. Some implications of our results on the regulation of the dollar-mexpeso market activity are discussed.

Changing Schools from the inside out: Small Wins in Hard Times. Third Edition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Robert

2011-01-01

At any time, public schools labor under great economic, political, and social pressures that make it difficult to create large-scale, "whole school" change. But current top-down mandates require that schools close achievement gaps while teaching more problem solving, inquiry, and research skills--with fewer resources. Failure to meet test-based…

Exometabolome analysis reveals hypoxia at the up-scaling of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae high-cell density fed-batch biopharmaceutical process

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Scale-up to industrial production level of a fermentation process occurs after optimization at small scale, a critical transition for successful technology transfer and commercialization of a product of interest. At the large scale a number of important bioprocess engineering problems arise that should be taken into account to match the values obtained at the small scale and achieve the highest productivity and quality possible. However, the changes of the host strain’s physiological and metabolic behavior in response to the scale transition are still not clear. Results Heterogeneity in substrate and oxygen distribution is an inherent factor at industrial scale (10,000 L) which affects the success of process up-scaling. To counteract these detrimental effects, changes in dissolved oxygen and pressure set points and addition of diluents were applied to 10,000 L scale to enable a successful process scale-up. A comprehensive semi-quantitative and time-dependent analysis of the exometabolome was performed to understand the impact of the scale-up on the metabolic/physiological behavior of the host microorganism. Intermediates from central carbon catabolism and mevalonate/ergosterol synthesis pathways were found to accumulate in both the 10 L and 10,000 L scale cultures in a time-dependent manner. Moreover, excreted metabolites analysis revealed that hypoxic conditions prevailed at the 10,000 L scale. The specific product yield increased at the 10,000 L scale, in spite of metabolic stress and catabolic-anabolic uncoupling unveiled by the decrease in biomass yield on consumed oxygen. Conclusions An optimized S. cerevisiae fermentation process was successfully scaled-up to an industrial scale bioreactor. The oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and overall growth profiles were matched between scales. The major remaining differences between scales were wet cell weight and culture apparent viscosity. The metabolic and physiological behavior of the host microorganism at the 10,000 L scale was investigated with exometabolomics, indicating that reduced oxygen availability affected oxidative phosphorylation cascading into down- and up-stream pathways producing overflow metabolism. Our study revealed striking metabolic and physiological changes in response to hypoxia exerted by industrial bioprocess up-scaling. PMID:24593159

Two-Way Satellite Time Transfer Between USNO and PTB

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

Observatory 3450 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington, DC 20392, USA Abstract—Two completely independent two-way time and frequency transfer ( TWSTFT ...for the realization of TAI. The X- band data are provided as a backup. To reach the full potential of TWSTFT , especially for time scale comparisons...ns for both links were achieved. A change of the TWSTFT transmission frequencies or satellite changes in general cause discontinuities in the series

Century to Millennium-Scale Late Quaternary Natural Climate Variability in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaumann, Peter Josef

1995-01-01

Estimates of past natural climatic variability on long time scales (centuries to millennia) are crucial in testing climate models. The process of model validation takes advantage of long general circulation model (GCM) integrations, instrumental and satellite observations, and paleoclimatic records. Here I use paleoclimatic proxy records from central North America spanning the last 150 ka to characterize climatic variability on sub-orbital time scales. A terrestrial last interglacial (~ 130 to 75 kyr BP) pollen sequence from south-central Illinois, U.S.A., contains climatic variance in frequency bands between 1 cycle/10 kyr and 1 cycle/1 kyr. The temporal variance is best developed as alternating cycles of pollen assemblages indicative of wet and dry conditions. Spectral cross-correlations between selected pollen types and potential forcings (ETP (eccentricity, tilt, precession), SPECMAP delta^{18}O) implicate oceanic and solar processes as possible mechanisms driving last interglacial vegetation and climate change in the Midwestern U.S. During the last glacial stage (LGS; 20 to 16 kyr BP) a lacustrine sequence from the central Mississippi River valley experienced major flooding events caused by intermittent melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. Rock -magnetic and grain size data confirm the physical record of flood clays. Correlation of the flood clays to the Greenland (GRIP) ice core is weak. However, the Laurentide melting events seem to fall temporally between the releases of minor LGS iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic. The GRIP delta^{18}O and the Midwestern U.S. magnetic susceptibility time series indicate sub-Milankovitch climate variability modes. Mapping, multivariate, and time series analyses of Holocene (8 to 1 ka) pollen sequences from central North America suggest spatial patterns of vegetation and climate change on sub-orbital to millennial time scales. The rate, magnitude, and spatial patterns of change varied considerably over the study region. Major climatic variance contained in several well-dated pollen time series ranges between 1 cycle/6 kyr and 1 cycle/0.6 kyr. Singular and cross -spectral analyses, again, suggest solar and oceanic forcing. Although it is difficult to attribute past climatic changes to specific forcings, the geologic record of past global change will prove invaluable in the assessment of long-term future climate change and prediction.

Monitoring forests from space: quantifying forest change by using satellite data.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2006-01-01

Change is the only constant in forest ecosystems. Quantifying regional-scale forest change is increasingly done with remote sensing, which relies on data sent from digital camera-like sensors mounted to Earth-orbiting satellites. Through remote sensing, changes in forests can be studied comprehensively and uniformly across time and space.

Detecting changes in the spatial distribution of nitrate contamination in ground water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Z.-J.; Hallberg, G.R.; Zimmerman, D.L.; Libra, R.D.

1997-01-01

Many studies of ground water pollution in general and nitrate contamination in particular have often relied on a one-time investigation, tracking of individual wells, or aggregate summaries. Studies of changes in spatial distribution of contaminants over time are lacking. This paper presents a method to compare spatial distributions for possible changes over time. The large-scale spatial distribution at a given time can be considered as a surface over the area (a trend surface). The changes in spatial distribution from period to period can be revealed by the differences in the shape and/or height of surfaces. If such a surface is described by a polynomial function, changes in surfaces can be detected by testing statistically for differences in their corresponding polynomial functions. This method was applied to nitrate concentration in a population of wells in an agricultural drainage basin in Iowa, sampled in three different years. For the period of 1981-1992, the large-scale spatial distribution of nitrate concentration did not show significant change in the shape of spatial surfaces; while the magnitude of nitrate concentration in the basin, or height of the computed surfaces showed significant fluctuations. The change in magnitude of nitrate concentration is closely related to climatic variations, especially in precipitation. The lack of change in the shape of spatial surfaces means that either the influence of land use/nitrogen management was overshadowed by climatic influence, or the changes in land use/management occurred in a random fashion.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

Historical emissions of carbonaceous aerosols from biomass and fossil fuel burning for the period 1870-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Akinori; Penner, Joyce E.

2005-06-01

Historical changes of black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM) emissions from biomass burning (BB) and fossil fuel (FF) burning are estimated from 1870 to 2000. A bottom-up inventory for open vegetation (OV) burning is scaled by a top-down estimate for the year 2000. Monthly and interannual variations are derived over the time period from 1979 to 2000 based on the TOMS satellite aerosol index (AI) and this global map. Prior to 1979, emissions are scaled to a CH4 emissions inventory based on land-use change. Biofuel (BF) emissions from a recent inventory for developing countries are scaled forward and backward in time using population statistics and crop production statistics. In developed countries, wood consumption data together with emission factors for cooking and heating practices are used for biofuel estimates. For fossil fuel use, we use fuel consumption data and specific emission factors for different fuel use categories to develop an inventory over 1950-2000, and emissions are scaled to a CO2 inventory prior to that time. Technology changes for emissions from the diesel transport sector are included. During the last decade of this time period, the BC and POM emissions from biomass burning (i.e., OV + BF) contribute a significant amount to the primary sources of BC and POM and are larger than those from FF. Thus 59% of the NH BC emissions and 90% of the NH POM emissions are from BB in 2000. Fossil fuel consumption technologies are needed prior to 1990 in order to improve estimates of fossil fuel emissions during the twentieth century. These results suggest that the aerosol emissions from biomass burning need to be represented realistically in climate change assessments. The estimated emissions are available on a 1° × 1° grid for global climate modeling studies of climate changes.

Memory: Ironing Out a Wrinkle in Time.

PubMed

Miller, Adam M P; Frankland, Paul W; Josselyn, Sheena A

2018-05-21

Individual hippocampal neurons encode time over seconds, whereas large-scale changes in population activity of hippocampal neurons encode time over minutes and days. New research shows how the hippocampus represents these multiple timescales simultaneously. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hierarchy of time-scales and the brain.

PubMed

Kiebel, Stefan J; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J

2008-11-01

In this paper, we suggest that cortical anatomy recapitulates the temporal hierarchy that is inherent in the dynamics of environmental states. Many aspects of brain function can be understood in terms of a hierarchy of temporal scales at which representations of the environment evolve. The lowest level of this hierarchy corresponds to fast fluctuations associated with sensory processing, whereas the highest levels encode slow contextual changes in the environment, under which faster representations unfold. First, we describe a mathematical model that exploits the temporal structure of fast sensory input to track the slower trajectories of their underlying causes. This model of sensory encoding or perceptual inference establishes a proof of concept that slowly changing neuronal states can encode the paths or trajectories of faster sensory states. We then review empirical evidence that suggests that a temporal hierarchy is recapitulated in the macroscopic organization of the cortex. This anatomic-temporal hierarchy provides a comprehensive framework for understanding cortical function: the specific time-scale that engages a cortical area can be inferred by its location along a rostro-caudal gradient, which reflects the anatomical distance from primary sensory areas. This is most evident in the prefrontal cortex, where complex functions can be explained as operations on representations of the environment that change slowly. The framework provides predictions about, and principled constraints on, cortical structure-function relationships, which can be tested by manipulating the time-scales of sensory input.

Are Remotely Sensed Trends in the Built Environment and Urban Vegetation Predictive of Changes in Metropolitan Housing Markets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endsley, K. A.

2017-12-01

In the midst of a global urbanization trend, residential neighborhoods are undergoing a variety of changes, including neighborhood turnover, the re-location of employment centers, and, recently, the increasing social and economic isolation of the suburbs. In the U.S., where residential lawns account for more area than any other irrigated crop (Polsky et al. 2014, in PNAS), coeval changes in residential populations, the built environment, and vegetation have serious implications for urban sustainability. To date, detailed studies of dynamic neighborhood changes have been hampered by the lack of fine time-series data on neighborhood composition. Most notably, the U.S. Census is conducted only once every decade leading to the likely inaccurate assumption of linear change between Census years. To the extent that human activities alter the built environment and urban ecology, can remotely sensed biophysical changes serve as a good proxy for neighborhood socio-economic changes? In this study, I apply time series data on spectral reflectance, spectral indices, and land-cover abundances from 15-to-25 years of Landsat data to fine-scale data on residential property transactions in two metropolitan areas with different regional economic and environmental contexts: Detroit and Los Angeles. The real estate record provides parcel-level, monthly data on sale prices and tax foreclosures; taken together, these provide a good description of the housing market and an acceptable proxy for neighborhood stability. By comparing lagged features from the remote sensing (RS) archive at different time scales in a non-parametric statistical learning algorithm, I identify which RS features best predict changes in the housing market and compare these associations between the two metropolitan areas and across multiple spatial and temporal scales along an urban to peri-urban gradient.

Climate change and social vicissitudes in China over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jun; Su, Yun; Fang, Xiuqi

2016-09-01

The relation between climate change and historical rhythms has long been discussed. However, this type of study still faces the lack of high-resolution data concerning long-term socio-economic processes. In this study, we collected 1586 items of direct and proffered evidence from 29 Chinese history books. We used semantic analysis to reconstruct a quantitative series of the social vicissitudes of the past 2000 yr with a 10-yr resolution to express the phase transition of the social vicissitudes of the dynasties in China. Our reconstruction demonstrates that social vicissitudes have clear cyclical features on multiple time scales. Analysis of the association of social rise and fall with climate change indicates that temperature displayed more significant effects on social vicissitudes in the long term, while precipitation displayed more significant effects on the social vicissitudes in the short term. There are great overlaps between social and climatic variables around the predominant or periodic bands. Social rise mostly occurred in the centennial-scale warm periods, whereas social decline mostly occurred in the centennial-scale cold periods. Under warm-wet conditions, social rise occurred over 57% of the time; under cold-dry conditions, the social decline occurred over 66% of the time.

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.

2015-01-01

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Effect of Elevated Temperature and Loading Rate on Delamination Fracture Toughness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, J. R.; Allen, D. H.; Bradley, W. L.

2003-01-01

The effects of temperature and loading rate on delamination growth were studied. The delamination fracture toughness of IM7/K3B was measured at 149 C, 177 C, and 204 C. At each temperature the tests were performed with a variety of loading rates so that the delamination initiated over the range of time from 0.5 sec to 24 hrs. The double cantilever beam (DCB) test was used to measure fracture toughness. The results showed that the delamination resistance is a complicated function of both time and temperature with the effect of temperature either increasing or decreasing the fracture toughness depending on the time scale. The results also showed that the fracture toughness changed by as much as a factor of three as the time scale changed over the five orders of magnitude tested.

Medical student quality-of-life in the clerkships: a scale validation study.

PubMed

Brannick, Michael T; Horn, Gregory T; Schnaus, Michael J; Wahi, Monika M; Goldin, Steven B

2015-04-01

Many aspects of medical school are stressful for students. To empirically assess student reactions to clerkship programs, or to assess efforts to improve such programs, educators must measure the overall well-being of the students reliably and validly. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a measure designed to achieve these goals. The authors developed a measure of quality of life for medical students by sampling (public domain) items tapping general happiness, fatigue, and anxiety. A quality-of-life scale was developed by factor analyzing responses to the items from students in two different clerkships from 2005 to 2008. Reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha. Validity was assessed by factor analysis, convergence with additional theoretically relevant scales, and sensitivity to change over time. The refined nine-item measure is a Likert scaled survey of quality-of-life items comprised of two domains: exhaustion and general happiness. The resulting scale demonstrated good reliability and factorial validity at two time points for each of the two samples. The quality-of-life measure also correlated with measures of depression and the amount of sleep reported during the clerkships. The quality-of-life measure appeared more sensitive to changes over time than did the depression measure. The measure is short and can be easily administered in a survey. The scale appears useful for program evaluation and more generally as an outcome variable in medical educational research.

Further psychometric validation of the BODY-Q: ability to detect change following bariatric surgery weight gain and loss.

PubMed

Klassen, Anne F; Cano, Stefan J; Kaur, Manraj; Breitkopf, Trisia; Pusic, Andrea L

2017-11-25

Recent systematic reviews have identified that current patient-reported outcome instruments have content limitations when used to measure change following bariatric surgery. The aim of this study was to measure change after bariatric surgery using the BODY-Q, a PRO instrument designed for weight loss and body contouring. The BODY-Q is composed of 18 independently functioning scales and an obesity-specific symptom checklist that measure appearance, health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) and experience of health-care. The sample for this study included patients who were exploring or seeking bariatric surgery in Hamilton (Canada) at the time of the BODY-Q field-test study and who agreed to further contact from the research team. These patients were invited to complete 12 BODY-Q scales and the symptom checklist between 7 June 2016 and 29 November 2016. Data were collected online (REDCap) and via postal surveys. Clinical change was measured using paired t-tests with effect sizes and standardized response means. The survey was completed by 58 of 89 (65%) pre-bariatric participants from the original BODY-Q field-test sample. The non-participants did not differ from participants in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, BMI or initial BODY-Q scale scores. Participants who had undergone bariatric surgery had a mean BMI of 49 (SD = 7) at time 1 and 35 (SD = 7) at time 2. Time since bariatric surgery was on average 2 years (SD = 0.5) (range 0.4 to 3 years). Percentage total weight loss ranged from 12 to 51 (mean 31, SD = 9). The difference in the proportion of patients to report an obesity-specific symptom on the BODY-Q checklist was significantly lower at follow-up for 5 of 10 symptoms. Participants improved on BODY-Q scales measuring appearance (of abdomen, back, body, buttocks, hips/outer thighs, inner thigh), body image and physical function (p < 0.001 on paired t-tests) and social function (p = 0.002 on paired t-test). These changes were associated with moderate to large effect sizes (0.60 to 2.29) and standardized response means (0.47 to 1.35). The BODY-Q provides a set of independently functioning scales that measure issues important to patients who undergo weight loss. BODY-Q scales were responsive to measuring clinical change associated with weight loss 2 years after bariatric surgery.

Multiscale statistics of trajectories with applications to fluid particles in turbulence and football players

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Kai; Kadoch, Benjamin; Bos, Wouter

2017-11-01

The angle between two subsequent particle displacement increments is evaluated as a function of the time lag. The directional change of particles can thus be quantified at different scales and multiscale statistics can be performed. Flow dependent and geometry dependent features can be distinguished. The mean angle satisfies scaling behaviors for short time lags based on the smoothness of the trajectories. For intermediate time lags a power law behavior can be observed for some turbulent flows, which can be related to Kolmogorov scaling. The long time behavior depends on the confinement geometry of the flow. We show that the shape of the probability distribution function of the directional change can be well described by a Fischer distribution. Results for two-dimensional (direct and inverse cascade) and three-dimensional turbulence with and without confinement, illustrate the properties of the proposed multiscale statistics. The presented Monte-Carlo simulations allow disentangling geometry dependent and flow independent features. Finally, we also analyze trajectories of football players, which are, in general, not randomly spaced on a field.

Oxidation Kinetics of Cast TiAl3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smialek, J. L.; Humphrey, D. L.

1992-01-01

The isothermal oxidation kinetics of the TiAl3 compound over a wide temperature range is documented, and these rates are related to exclusive alpha-Al2O3 scale growth. The specific weight change vs time curves are shown. Two abnormalities are immediately apparent. One is that a rapid initial uptake of oxygen occurs at times less than 5 h, followed by a lower oxidation rate at longer times, for tests at 900 C and below. The other is that the final weight changes for the 700, 800, and 900 C tests are not in the sequence expected with respect to temperature. Isothermal oxidation of drop cast TiAl above 1000 C was found to exhibit parabolic oxidation controlled by protective alpha-Al2O3 scale formation. TiAl is the only phase in the binary Ti-Al system that forms exclusive scales of alpha-Al2O3 in isothermal oxidation. High anomalous rates at short times and at temperatures below 1000 C resulted from the internal oxidation of a second phase of aluminum.

Verification of watershed vegetation restoration policies, arid China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chengqi; Li, Yu

2016-01-01

Verification of restoration policies that have been implemented is of significance to simultaneously reduce global environmental risks while also meeting economic development goals. This paper proposed a novel method according to the idea of multiple time scales to verify ecological restoration policies in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. We integrated modern pollen transport characteristics of the entire basin and pollen records from 8 Holocene sedimentary sections, and quantitatively reconstructed the millennial-scale changes of watershed vegetation zones by defining a new pollen-precipitation index. Meanwhile, Empirical Orthogonal Function method was used to quantitatively analyze spatial and temporal variations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in summer (June to August) of 2000–2014. By contrasting the vegetation changes that mainly controlled by millennial-scale natural ecological evolution with that under conditions of modern ecological restoration measures, we found that vegetation changes of the entire Shiyang River drainage basin are synchronous in both two time scales, and the current ecological restoration policies met the requirements of long-term restoration objectives and showed promising early results on ecological environmental restoration. Our findings present an innovative method to verify river ecological restoration policies, and also provide the scientific basis to propose future emphasizes of ecological restoration strategies. PMID:27470948

Verification of watershed vegetation restoration policies, arid China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chengqi; Li, Yu

2016-07-01

Verification of restoration policies that have been implemented is of significance to simultaneously reduce global environmental risks while also meeting economic development goals. This paper proposed a novel method according to the idea of multiple time scales to verify ecological restoration policies in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. We integrated modern pollen transport characteristics of the entire basin and pollen records from 8 Holocene sedimentary sections, and quantitatively reconstructed the millennial-scale changes of watershed vegetation zones by defining a new pollen-precipitation index. Meanwhile, Empirical Orthogonal Function method was used to quantitatively analyze spatial and temporal variations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in summer (June to August) of 2000-2014. By contrasting the vegetation changes that mainly controlled by millennial-scale natural ecological evolution with that under conditions of modern ecological restoration measures, we found that vegetation changes of the entire Shiyang River drainage basin are synchronous in both two time scales, and the current ecological restoration policies met the requirements of long-term restoration objectives and showed promising early results on ecological environmental restoration. Our findings present an innovative method to verify river ecological restoration policies, and also provide the scientific basis to propose future emphasizes of ecological restoration strategies.

A scaling theory for linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brockett, R. W.; Krishnaprasad, P. S.

1980-01-01

A theory of scaling for rational (transfer) functions in terms of transformation groups is developed. Two different four-parameter scaling groups which play natural roles in studying linear systems are identified and the effect of scaling on Fisher information and related statistical measures in system identification are studied. The scalings considered include change of time scale, feedback, exponential scaling, magnitude scaling, etc. The scaling action of the groups studied is tied to the geometry of transfer functions in a rather strong way as becomes apparent in the examination of the invariants of scaling. As a result, the scaling process also provides new insight into the parameterization question for rational functions.

Using Citizen Science Observations to Model Species Distributions Over Space, Through Time, and Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelling, S.

2017-12-01

The goal of Biodiversity research is to identify, explain, and predict why a species' distribution and abundance vary through time, space, and with features of the environment. Measuring these patterns and predicting their responses to change are not exercises in curiosity. Today, they are essential tasks for understanding the profound effects that humans have on earth's natural systems, and for developing science-based environmental policies. To gain insight about species' distribution patterns requires studying natural systems at appropriate scales, yet studies of ecological processes continue to be compromised by inadequate attention to scale issues. How spatial and temporal patterns in nature change with scale often reflects fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, or biology, and we can identify such basic, governing laws only by comparing patterns over a wide range of scales. This presentation will provide several examples that integrate bird observations made by volunteers, with NASA Earth Imagery using Big Data analysis techniques to analyze the temporal patterns of bird occurrence across scales—from hemisphere-wide views of bird distributions to the impact of powerful city lights on bird migration.

Consistency of near-death experience accounts over two decades: are reports embellished over time?

PubMed

Greyson, Bruce

2007-06-01

"Near-death experiences," commonly reported after clinical death and resuscitation, may require intervention and, if reliable, may elucidate altered brain functioning under extreme stress. It has been speculated that accounts of near-death experiences are exaggerated over the years. The objective of this study was to test the reliability over two decades of accounts of near-death experiences. Seventy-two patients with near-death experience who had completed the NDE scale in the 1980s (63% of the original cohort still alive) completed the scale a second time, without reference to the original scale administration. The primary outcome was differences in NDE scale scores on the two administrations. The secondary outcome was the statistical association between differences in scores and years elapsed between the two administrations. Mean scores did not change significantly on the total NDE scale, its 4 factors, or its 16 items. Correlation coefficients between scores on the two administrations were significant at P<0.001 for the total NDE scale, for its 4 factors, and for its 16 items. Correlation coefficients between score changes and time elapsed between the two administrations were not significant for the total NDE scale, for its 4 factors, or for its 16 items. Contrary to expectation, accounts of near-death experiences, and particularly reports of their positive affect, were not embellished over a period of almost two decades. These data support the reliability of near-death experience accounts.

Anomalous diffusion for bed load transport with a physically-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, N.; Singh, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Wu, B.

2013-12-01

Diffusion of bed load particles shows both normal and anomalous behavior for different spatial-temporal scales. Understanding and quantifying these different types of diffusion is important not only for the development of theoretical models of particle transport but also for practical purposes, e.g., river management. Here we extend a recently proposed physically-based model of particle transport by Fan et al. [2013] to further develop an Episodic Langevin equation (ELE) for individual particle motion which reproduces the episodic movement (start and stop) of sediment particles. Using the proposed ELE we simulate particle movements for a large number of uniform size particles, incorporating different probability distribution functions (PDFs) of particle waiting time. For exponential PDFs of waiting times, particles reveal ballistic motion in short time scales and turn to normal diffusion at long time scales. The PDF of simulated particle travel distances also shows a change in its shape from exponential to Gamma to Gaussian with a change in timescale implying different diffusion scaling regimes. For power-law PDF (with power - μ) of waiting times, the asymptotic behavior of particles at long time scales reveals both super-diffusion and sub-diffusion, however, only very heavy tailed waiting times (i.e. 1.0 < μ < 1.5) could result in sub-diffusion. We suggest that the contrast between our results and previous studies (for e.g., studies based on fractional advection-diffusion models of thin/heavy tailed particle hops and waiting times) results could be due the assumption in those studies that the hops are achieved instantaneously, but in reality, particles achieve their hops within finite times (as we simulate here) instead of instantaneously, even if the hop times are much shorter than waiting times. In summary, this study stresses on the need to rethink the alternative models to the previous models, such as, fractional advection-diffusion equations, for studying the anomalous diffusion of bed load particles. The implications of these results for modeling sediment transport are discussed.

Broad-scale trophic shift in the pelagic North Pacific revealed by an oceanic seabird

PubMed Central

Wiley, Anne E.; James, Helen F.; Rossman, Sam; Walker, William A.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Chikaraishi, Yoshito

2017-01-01

Human-induced ecological change in the open oceans appears to be accelerating. Fisheries, climate change and elevated nutrient inputs are variously blamed, at least in part, for altering oceanic ecosystems. Yet it is challenging to assess the extent of anthropogenic change in the open oceans, where historical records of ecological conditions are sparse, and the geographical scale is immense. We developed millennial-scale amino acid nitrogen isotope records preserved in ancient animal remains to understand changes in food web structure and nutrient regimes in the oceanic realm of the North Pacific Ocean (NPO). Our millennial-scale isotope records of amino acids in bone collagen in a wide-ranging oceanic seabird, the Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis), showed that trophic level declined over time. The amino acid records do not support a broad-scale increase in nitrogen fixation in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, rejecting an earlier interpretation based on bulk and amino acid specific δ15N chronologies for Hawaiian deep-sea corals and bulk δ15N chronologies for the Hawaiian petrel. Rather, our work suggests that the food web structure in the NPO has shifted at a broad geographical scale, a phenomenon potentially related to industrial fishing. PMID:28356448

Application of Wavelet Filters in an Evaluation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Air quality model evaluation can be enhanced with time-scale specific comparisons of outputs and observations. For example, high-frequency (hours to one day) time scale information in observed ozone is not well captured by deterministic models and its incorporation into model performance metrics lead one to devote resources to stochastic variations in model outputs. In this analysis, observations are compared with model outputs at seasonal, weekly, diurnal and intra-day time scales. Filters provide frequency specific information that can be used to compare the strength (amplitude) and timing (phase) of observations and model estimates. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD′s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation′s air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollu

Periodicity and Multi-scale Analysis of Runoff and Sediment Load in the Wulanghe River, Jinsha River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yiming

2018-01-01

Based on the annual runoff and sediment data (1959-2014 ) of Zongguantian hydrological station, time-frequency wavelet transform characteristics and their periodic rules of high and low flow alternating change were analyzed in multi-time scales by the Morlet continue wavelet transformation (CWT). It is concluded that the primary periods of runoff and sediment load time series of the high and low annual flow in the different time scales were 12-year, 3-year and 26-year, 18-year, 13-year, 5-year, respectively, and predicted that the major variant trend of the two time series would been gradually decreasing and been in the high flow period around 8-year (from 2014 to 2022) and 10-year (from 2014 to 2020).

The impact of land use change and hydroclimatic variability on landscape connectivity dynamics across surface water networks at subcontinental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulbure, M. G.; Bishop-Taylor, R.; Broich, M.

2017-12-01

Land use (LU) change and hydroclimatic variability affect spatiotemporal landscape connectivity dynamics, important for species movement and dispersal. Despite the fact that LU change can strongly influence dispersal potential over time, prior research has only focused on the impacts of dynamic changes in the distribution of potential habitats. We used 8 time-steps of historical LU together with a Landsat-derived time-series of surface water habitat dynamics (1986-2011) over the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a region with extreme hydroclimatic variability, impacted by LU changes. To assess how changing LU and hydroclimatic variability affect landscape connectivity across time, we compared 4 scenarios, namely one where both climate and LU are dynamic over time, one where climate is kept steady (i.e. a median surface water extent layer), and two scenarios where LU is kept steady (i.e. resistance values associated with the most recent or the first LU layer). We used circuit theory to assign landscape features with `resistance' costs and graph theory network analysis, with surface water habitats as `nodes' connected by dispersal paths or `edges' Findings comparing a dry and an average season show high differences in number of nodes (14581 vs 21544) and resistance distances. The combined effect of LU change and landscape wetness was lower than expected, likely a function of the large, MDB-wide, aggregation scale. Spatially explicit analyses are expected to identify areas where the synergistic effect of LU change and landscape wetness greatly reduce or increase landscape connectivity, as well as areas where the two effects cancel each other out.

Slowly changing potential problems in Quantum Mechanics: Adiabatic theorems, ergodic theorems, and scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fishman, S., E-mail: fishman@physics.technion.ac.il; Soffer, A., E-mail: soffer@math.rutgers.edu

2016-07-15

We employ the recently developed multi-time scale averaging method to study the large time behavior of slowly changing (in time) Hamiltonians. We treat some known cases in a new way, such as the Zener problem, and we give another proof of the adiabatic theorem in the gapless case. We prove a new uniform ergodic theorem for slowly changing unitary operators. This theorem is then used to derive the adiabatic theorem, do the scattering theory for such Hamiltonians, and prove some classical propagation estimates and asymptotic completeness.

Chemistry Resolved Kinetic Flow Modeling of TATB Based Explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitello, Peter; Fried, Lawrence; Howard, Mike; Levesque, George; Souers, Clark

2011-06-01

Detonation waves in insensitive, TATB based explosives are believed to have multi-time scale regimes. The initial burn rate of such explosives has a sub-microsecond time scale. However, significant late-time slow release in energy is believed to occur due to diffusion limited growth of carbon. In the intermediate time scale concentrations of product species likely change from being in equilibrium to being kinetic rate controlled. We use the thermo-chemical code CHEETAH linked to ALE hydrodynamics codes to model detonations. We term our model chemistry resolved kinetic flow as CHEETAH tracks the time dependent concentrations of individual species in the detonation wave and calculate EOS values based on the concentrations. A validation suite of model simulations compared to recent high fidelity metal push experiments at ambient and cold temperatures has been developed. We present here a study of multi-time scale kinetic rate effects for these experiments. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Estimating time-dependent connectivity in marine systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Defne, Zafer; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo

2016-01-01

Hydrodynamic connectivity describes the sources and destinations of water parcels within a domain over a given time. When combined with biological models, it can be a powerful concept to explain the patterns of constituent dispersal within marine ecosystems. However, providing connectivity metrics for a given domain is a three-dimensional problem: two dimensions in space to define the sources and destinations and a time dimension to evaluate connectivity at varying temporal scales. If the time scale of interest is not predefined, then a general approach is required to describe connectivity over different time scales. For this purpose, we have introduced the concept of a “retention clock” that highlights the change in connectivity through time. Using the example of connectivity between protected areas within Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, we show that a retention clock matrix is an informative tool for multitemporal analysis of connectivity.

Impacts of changes in climate and landscape pattern on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Hao, Ruifang; Yu, Deyong; Liu, Yupeng; Liu, Yang; Qiao, Jianmin; Wang, Xue; Du, Jinshen

2017-02-01

The restoration of degraded vegetation can effectively improve ecosystem services, increase human well-being, and promote regional sustainable development. Understanding the changing trends in ecosystem services and their drivers is an important step in informing decision makers for the development of reasonable landscape management measures. From 2001 to 2014, we analyzed the changing trends in five critical ecosystem services in the Xilingol Grassland, which is typical of grasslands in North China, including net primary productivity (NPP), soil conservation (SC), soil loss due to wind (SL), water yield (WY) and water retention (WR). Additionally, we quantified how climatic factors and landscape patterns affect the five ecosystem services on both annual and seasonal time scales. Overall, the results indicated that vegetation restoration can effectively improve the five grassland ecosystem services, and precipitation (PPT) is the most critical climatic factor. The impact of changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was most readily detectable on the annual time scale, whereas the impact of changes in landscape pattern was most readily detectable on the seasonal time scale. A win-win situation in terms of grassland ecosystem services (e.g., vegetation productivity, SC, WR and reduced SL) can be achieved by increasing grassland aggregation, partitioning the largest grasslands, dividing larger areas of farmland into smaller patches, and increasing the area of appropriate forest stands. Our work may aid policymakers in developing regional landscape management schemes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Studying Basin Water Balance Variations at Inter- and Intra-annual Time Scales Based On the Budyko Hypothesis and GRACE Gravimetry Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, H.

2017-12-01

Increasing intensity in global warming and anthropogenic activities has triggered significant changes over regional climates and landscapes, which, in turn, drive the basin water cycle and hydrological balance into a complex and unstable state. Budyko hypothesis is a powerful tool to characterize basin water balance and hydrological variations at long-term average scale. However, due to the absence of basin water storage change, applications of Budyko theory to the inter-annual and intra-annual time scales has been prohibited. The launch of GRACE gavimetry satellites provides a great opportunity to quantify terrestrial water storage change, which can be further introduced into the Budyko hypothesis to reveal the inter- and intra-annual response of basin water components under impacts of climate variability and/or human activities. This research targeted Hai River Basin (in China) and Murray-Darling Basin (in Australia), which have been identified with a continuous groundwater depletion trend as well as impacts by extreme climates in the past decade. This can help us to explore how annual or seasonal precipitation were redistributed to evapotranspiration and runoff via changing basin water storage. Moreover, the impacts of vegetation on annual basin water balance will be re-examined. Our results are expected to provide deep insights about the water cycle and hydrological behaviors for the targeted basins, as well as a proof for a consideration of basin water storage change into the Budyko model at inter- or intra-annual time steps.

The Nested Regional Climate Model: An Approach Toward Prediction Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, J. W.; Holland, G. J.; Large, W. G.

2008-12-01

The reality of global climate change has become accepted and society is rapidly moving to questions of consequences on space and time scales that are relevant to proper planning and development of adaptation strategies. There are a number of urgent challenges for the scientific community related to improved and more detailed predictions of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Two important examples are potential impacts of climate change on North Atlantic hurricane activity and on water resources over the intermountain West. The latter is dominated by complex topography, so that accurate simulations of regional climate variability and change require much finer spatial resolution than is provided with state-of-the-art climate models. Climate models also do not explicitly resolve tropical cyclones, even though these storms have dramatic societal impacts and play an important role in regulating climate. Moreover, the debate over the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones has at times been acrimonious, and the lack of hard evidence has left open opportunities for misinterpretation and justification of pre-existing beliefs. These and similar topics are being assessed at NCAR, in partnership with university colleagues, through the development of a Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). This is an ambitious effort to combine a state of the science mesoscale weather model (WRF), a high resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), and a climate model (CCSM) to better simulate the complex, multi-scale interactions intrinsic to atmospheric and oceanic fluid motions that are limiting our ability to predict likely future changes in regional weather statistics and climate. The NRCM effort is attracting a large base of earth system scientists together with societal groups as diverse as the Western Governor's Association and the offshore oil industry. All of these groups require climate data on scales of a few kilometers (or less), so that the NRCM program is producing unique data sets of climate change scenarios of immense interest. In addition, all simulations are archived in a form that will be readily accessible to other researchers, thus enabling a wider group to investigate these important issues.

Solar variability: Implications for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lean, Judith; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Effects of practice on the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV across 3- and 6-month intervals.

PubMed

Estevis, Eduardo; Basso, Michael R; Combs, Dennis

2012-01-01

A total of 54 participants (age M = 20.9; education M = 14.9; initial Full Scale IQ M = 111.6) were administered the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV) at baseline and again either 3 or 6 months later. Scores on the Full Scale IQ, Verbal Comprehension, Working Memory, Perceptual Reasoning, Processing Speed, and General Ability Indices improved approximately 7, 5, 4, 5, 9, and 6 points, respectively, and increases were similar regardless of whether the re-examination occurred over 3- or 6-month intervals. Reliable change indices (RCI) were computed using the simple difference and bivariate regression methods, providing estimated base rates of change across time. The regression method provided more accurate estimates of reliable change than did the simple difference between baseline and follow-up scores. These findings suggest that prior exposure to the WAIS-IV results in significant score increments. These gains reflect practice effects instead of genuine intellectual changes, which may lead to errors in clinical judgment.

Functional Connectivity of Precipitation Networks in the Brazilian Rainforest-Savanna Transition Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, vegetation change has the potential to significantly affect precipitation patterns. Deforestation, in particular, can affect precipitation patterns by increasing land surface albedo, increasing aerosol loading to the atmosphere, changing land surface roughness, and reducing transpiration. Understanding land surface-precipitation couplings in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching and agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between precipitation and land cover. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect precipitation patterns. We take an empirical approach to ask: (1) what are the dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? (2) How do these length scales change over time? (3) How does the connectivity of precipitation change over time? The answers to these questions will help address fundamental questions about the impacts of deforestation on precipitation. We use rain gauge data from 1100 rain gauges intermittently covering the period 1980 - 2013, a period of intensive land cover change in the region. The dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling are resolved using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory. Connectivity of the emergent network of couplings is quantified using network statistics. Analyses using transfer entropy and network statistics reveal the spatial and temporal interdependencies of rainfall events occurring in different parts of the study domain.

Social support and depression across the perinatal period: A longitudinal study.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Long, Zhouting; Cao, Danfeng; Cao, Fenglin

2017-09-01

To report changes in the prevalence of depression and the level of social support at three different time points in the perinatal period (late pregnancy, 1 week postpartum and 4 weeks postpartum) and to examine the relationship between depression and social support at these points in time. Social support is a modifiable factor for depression. Existing research is limited to examining social support at a single time point in relation to antepartum or postpartum depression. A longitudinal study. In total, 240 pregnant women were recruited from the prenatal clinic at a general hospital in China between June-September 2013. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and Perceived Social Support Scale were used to measure the risk of depression and perceived social support at late pregnancy, within the first week postpartum, and at 4 weeks postpartum. The Perceived Social Support Scale scores within the first week after birth were higher than scores at the late pregnancy and postpartum week 4, while the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale scores at late pregnancy were higher than scores at the two postpartum times. Women who had higher Perceived Social Support Scale scores at late pregnancy had less likelihood of developing antepartum depression, and women with higher Perceived Social Support Scale scores at postpartum week 4 were less likely to have postpartum depression. However, the Perceived Social Support Scale scores at late pregnancy did not predict the risk of postpartum depression. The study revealed that social support perceived by women changed over the perinatal period. Social support at each stage of the perinatal period was an important buffer against depression at this stage. An increased focus on the relationship between social support and depression at each stage of the perinatal period is necessary for future research and practice. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A large-scale, long-term study of scale drift: The micro view and the macro view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, W.; Li, S.; Kingsbury, G. G.

2016-11-01

The development of measurement scales for use across years and grades in educational settings provides unique challenges, as instructional approaches, instructional materials, and content standards all change periodically. This study examined the measurement stability of a set of Rasch measurement scales that have been in place for almost 40 years. In order to investigate the stability of these scales, item responses were collected from a large set of students who took operational adaptive tests using items calibrated to the measurement scales. For the four scales that were examined, item samples ranged from 2183 to 7923 items. Each item was administered to at least 500 students in each grade level, resulting in approximately 3000 responses per item. Stability was examined at the micro level analysing change in item parameter estimates that have occurred since the items were first calibrated. It was also examined at the macro level, involving groups of items and overall test scores for students. Results indicated that individual items had changes in their parameter estimates, which require further analysis and possible recalibration. At the same time, the results at the total score level indicate substantial stability in the measurement scales over the span of their use.

Energy and time determine scaling in biological and computer designs

PubMed Central

Bezerra, George; Edwards, Benjamin; Brown, James; Forrest, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Metabolic rate in animals and power consumption in computers are analogous quantities that scale similarly with size. We analyse vascular systems of mammals and on-chip networks of microprocessors, where natural selection and human engineering, respectively, have produced systems that minimize both energy dissipation and delivery times. Using a simple network model that simultaneously minimizes energy and time, our analysis explains empirically observed trends in the scaling of metabolic rate in mammals and power consumption and performance in microprocessors across several orders of magnitude in size. Just as the evolutionary transitions from unicellular to multicellular animals in biology are associated with shifts in metabolic scaling, our model suggests that the scaling of power and performance will change as computer designs transition to decentralized multi-core and distributed cyber-physical systems. More generally, a single energy–time minimization principle may govern the design of many complex systems that process energy, materials and information. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The major synthetic evolutionary transitions’. PMID:27431524

Energy and time determine scaling in biological and computer designs.

PubMed

Moses, Melanie; Bezerra, George; Edwards, Benjamin; Brown, James; Forrest, Stephanie

2016-08-19

Metabolic rate in animals and power consumption in computers are analogous quantities that scale similarly with size. We analyse vascular systems of mammals and on-chip networks of microprocessors, where natural selection and human engineering, respectively, have produced systems that minimize both energy dissipation and delivery times. Using a simple network model that simultaneously minimizes energy and time, our analysis explains empirically observed trends in the scaling of metabolic rate in mammals and power consumption and performance in microprocessors across several orders of magnitude in size. Just as the evolutionary transitions from unicellular to multicellular animals in biology are associated with shifts in metabolic scaling, our model suggests that the scaling of power and performance will change as computer designs transition to decentralized multi-core and distributed cyber-physical systems. More generally, a single energy-time minimization principle may govern the design of many complex systems that process energy, materials and information.This article is part of the themed issue 'The major synthetic evolutionary transitions'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Changes in Children's Perception-Action Tuning over Short Time Scales: Bicycling across Traffic-Filled Intersections in a Virtual Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plumert, Jodie M.; Kearney, Joseph K.; Cremer, James F.; Recker, Kara M.; Strutt, Jonathan

2011-01-01

This investigation examined short-term changes in child and adult cyclists' gap decisions and movement timing in response to general and specific road-crossing experiences. Children (10- and 12-year-olds) and adults rode a bicycle through a virtual environment with 12 intersections. Participants faced continuous cross traffic and waited for gaps…

Initiatives (Part 1): Keystone; Cycle Time Puzzle, A Full-Scale Challenge; Foot to Foot, Face to Face; Change Management; Multi-Element Team Challenge.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoel, Jim; Butler, Steve; Murray, Mark; Gass, Mike; Carrick, Moe

2001-01-01

Presents five group problem-solving initiatives for use in adventure and experiential settings, focusing on conflict resolution, corporate workplace issues, or adjustment to change. Includes target group, group size, time and space needs, activity level, overview, goals, props, instructions, and suggestions for framing and debriefing the…

A Two Time-scale response of the Southern Ocean to the Ozone Hole: Regional Responses and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.; Pradal, M. A. S.

2016-12-01

The impact of changing ozone on the climate of the Southern Ocean is evaluated using an ensemble of coupled climate models. By imposing a step change from 1860 to 2000 conditions we are able to estimate response functions associated with this change. Two time scales are found, an initial cooling centered in the Southwest Pacific followed by cooling in the Pacific sector and then warming in both sectors. The physical processes that drive this response are different across time periods and locations, as is the sign of the response itself. Initial cooling in the Pacific sector is not just driven by the increased winds pushing cold water northward, but also by a decrease in surface salinity reducing wintertime mixing and increased ice and clouds reflecting more shortwave radiation back to space. The decrease in salinity is primarily driven by a southward shift of precipitation associated with a shifting storm track, coupled with decreased evaporation associated with colder surface temperatures. A subsurface increase in heat associated with this reduction in mixing then upwells along the Antarctic coast, producing a subsequent warming. Similar changes in convective activity occur in the Weddell Sea but are offset in time.

Time-Lapse Monitoring with 4D Seismic Coda Waves in Active, Passive and Ambient Noise Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lumley, D. E.; Kamei, R.; Saygin, E.; Shragge, J. C.

2017-12-01

The Earth's subsurface is continuously changing, due to temporal variations in fluid flow, stress, temperature, geomechanics and geochemistry, for example. These physical changes occur at broad tectonic and earthquake scales, and also at very detailed near-surface and reservoir scales. Changes in the physical states of the earth cause time-varying changes in the physical properties of rocks and fluids, which can be monitored with natural or manmade seismic waves. Time-lapse (4D) seismic monitoring is important for applications related to natural and induced seismicity, hydrocarbon and groundwater reservoir depletion, CO2 sequestration etc. An exciting new research area involves moving beyond traditional methods in order to use the full complex time-lapse scattered wavefield (4D coda waves) for both manmade active-source 3D/4D seismic data, and also to use continuous recordings of natural-source passive seismic data, especially (micro) earthquakes and ocean ambient noise. This research involves full wave-equation approaches including waveform inversion (FWI), interferometry, Large N sensor arrays, "big data" information theory, and high performance supercomputing (HPC). I will present high-level concepts and recent data results that are quite spectacular and highly encouraging.

Landscape-scale water balance monitoring with an iGrav superconducting gravimeter in a field enclosure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güntner, Andreas; Reich, Marvin; Mikolaj, Michal; Creutzfeldt, Benjamin; Schroeder, Stephan; Wziontek, Hartmut

2017-04-01

In spite of the fundamental role of the landscape water balance for the Earth's water and energy cycles, monitoring the water balance and its components beyond the point scale is notoriously difficult due to the multitude of flow and storage processes and their spatial heterogeneity. Here, we present the first deployment of an iGrav superconducting gravimeter (SG) in a minimized field enclosure on a grassland site for integrative monitoring of water storage changes. Results of the field SG were compared to data provided by a nearby SG located in the controlled environment of an observatory building. For wet-temperate climate conditions, the system proves to provide gravity time series that are similarly precise as those of the observatory SG. At the same time, the field SG is more sensitive to hydrological variations than the observatory SG. We demonstrate that the gravity variations observed by the field setup are almost independent of the depth below the terrain surface where water storage changes occur (contrary to SGs in buildings), and thus the field SG system directly observes the total water storage change, i.e., the water balance, in its surroundings in an integrative way. We provide a framework to single out the water balance components actual evapotranspiration and lateral subsurface discharge from the gravity time series on annual to daily time scales. With about 99% and 85% of the gravity signal originating within a radius of 4000 and 200 meter around the instrument, respectively, this setup paves the road towards gravimetry as a continuous hydrological field monitoring technique at the landscape scale.

A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic

PubMed Central

Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

2016-01-01

Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. PMID:27413364

A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic.

PubMed

Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

2016-01-01

Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals.

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

Correlated Temporal and Spectral Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swank, Jean H.

2007-01-01

The variability of neutron star and black hole X-ray sources has several dimensions, because of the roles played by different important time-scales. The variations on time scales of hours, weeks, and months, ranging from 50% to orders of magnitude, arise out of changes in the flow in the disk. The most important driving forces for those changes are probably various possible instabilities in the disk, though there may be effects with other dominant causes. The changes in the rate of flow appear to be associated with changes in the flow's configuration, as the accreting material approaches the compact object, for there are generally correlated changes in both the Xray spectra and the character of the faster temporal variability. There has been a lot of progress in tracking these correlations, both for Z and Atoll neutron star low-mass X-ray binaries, and for black hole binaries. I will discuss these correlations and review briefly what they tell us about the physical states of the systems.

Characteristics of variations of climate change and atmospheric CO2 concentration at different time scales over the past 500 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LIU, Z.; Huang, S. S. X. E. C.; Tang, X.

2015-12-01

It is generally believed that current global warming is due to the persistent rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas CO2. The consensus is based mostly on the observational data of past decades and the polar ice core records. To understand the relationship between climate change and atmospheric CO2, their behaviors over a longer interval at different time scales need to be appreciated. Here, we collect and analyze past 500 Ma records of atmospheric CO2 and temperature in six time periods, namely Phanerozoic, Cenozoic, middle Pleistocene, last deglaciation, past millennium, and recent decades. According to the carriers and time spans, we divide these records into three categories: 1.The millionaire and longer records from model calculation and paleosols/paleobotany proxies. Although the trends of both variables are generally consistent on this time scale, it is difficult to establish a clear causal relationship because of great uncertainties and low resolutions of both sets of data. 2.The orbital scale mainly from the polar ice core. High precise CO2 and temperature reconstructions allow for an examination of the possible role of atmospheric CO2 in the glacial-interglacial transformation. 3.The records at centennial and shorter time scales over the past millennium from ice, snow, and instrumental data. The past millennium records are most abundant and accurate, especially CO2 has been measured directly in recent decades. However, due to the difficulties in distinguishing the effect of CO2 from other factors, there are great uncertainties in the interpretation of climate change versus CO2. Overall, we come to the following conclusions:1.Paleoclimatic reconstructions show that both temperature and atmospheric CO2 have generally decreased over the past 500 Ma. However, there are no consistent sequential orders in the changes between these two variables. 2.The Earth's atmospheric CO2 has a drastic oscillation history. There were many high CO2 periods when the values were higher than 5000 ppm, and there are several low CO2 periods when the values dropped to less than 100 ppm. 3.According to global observational data, atmospheric CO2 has recently exceeded 400 ppm. Although there is no conclusive evidence that shows this value has a special significance, it is the highest since the last 800 ka, and rare over the Quaternary.

Climate Change Impacts of US Reactive Nitrogen Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinder, R. W.; Davidson, E. A.; Goodale, C. L.; Greaver, T.; Herrick, J.; Liu, L.

2011-12-01

By fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application, the US has substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here, we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions. We use the global temperature potential (GTP) as a common metric, and we calculate the GTP at 20 and 100 years in units of CO2 equivalents. At both time-scales, nitrogen enhancement of CO2 uptake has the largest impact, because in the eastern US, areas of high nitrogen deposition are co-located with forests. In the short-term, the effect due to NOx altering ozone and methane concentrations is also substantial, but are not important on the 100 year time scale. Finally, the GTP of N2O emissions is substantial at both time scales. We have also attributed these impacts to combustion and agricultural sources, and quantified the uncertainty. Reactive nitrogen from combustion sources contribute more to cooling than warming. The impacts of agricultural sources tend to cancel each other out, and the net effect is uncertain. Recent trends show decreasing reactive nitrogen from US combustion sources, while agricultural sources are increasing. Fortunately, there are many mitigation strategies currently available to reduce the climate change impacts of US agricultural sources.

Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

2017-01-01

Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of erosion (∼−1 m/yr) averaged over the northern half of the section as compared to the southern half where the observed and modeled averaged net shoreline changes are smaller (<0.1 m/yr). The model indicates accretion in some shallow embayments, whereas observations indicate erosion in these locations. Further analysis identifies that the magnitude of net alongshore sediment transport is strongly dominated by events associated with high wave energy. However, both big- and small- wave events cause shoreline change of the same order of magnitude because it is the gradients in transport, not the magnitude, that are controlling shoreline change. Results also indicate that alongshore momentum is not a simple balance between wave breaking and bottom stress, but also includes processes of horizontal vortex force, horizontal advection and pressure gradient that contribute to long-term alongshore sediment transport. As a comparison to a more simple approach, an empirical formulation for alongshore sediment transport is used. The empirical estimates capture the effect of the breaking term in the hydrodynamics-based model, however, other processes that are accounted for in the hydrodynamics-based model improve the agreement with the observed alongshore sediment transport.

National-Scale Wind Resource Assessment for Power Generation (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baring-Gould, E. I.

2013-08-01

This presentation describes the current standards for conducting a national-scale wind resource assessment for power generation, along with the risk/benefit considerations to be considered when beginning a wind resource assessment. The presentation describes changes in turbine technology and viable wind deployment due to more modern turbine technology and taller towers and shows how the Philippines national wind resource assessment evolved over time to reflect changes that arise from updated technologies and taller towers.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Shu; Liu, Bingjun

2018-05-01

Climate change and large-scale climate patterns may result in changes in probability distributions of climate variables that are associated with changes in the mean and variability, and severity of extreme climate events. In this paper, we applied a flexible framework based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile (BSTQR) model to identify climate changes at different quantile levels and their teleconnections to large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA). Using the BSTQR model with time (year) as a covariate, we estimated changes in Canadian winter precipitation and their uncertainties at different quantile levels. There were some stations in eastern Canada showing distributional changes in winter precipitation such as an increase in low quantiles but a decrease in high quantiles. Because quantile functions in the BSTQR model vary with space and time and assimilate spatiotemporal precipitation data, the BSTQR model produced much spatially smoother and less uncertain quantile changes than the classic regression without considering spatiotemporal correlations. Using the BSTQR model with five teleconnection indices (i.e., SOI, PDO, PNA, NP and NAO) as covariates, we investigated effects of large-scale climate patterns on Canadian winter precipitation at different quantile levels. Winter precipitation responses to these five teleconnections were found to occur differently at different quantile levels. Effects of five teleconnections on Canadian winter precipitation were stronger at low and high than at medium quantile levels.

Developing perturbations for Climate Change Impact Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitson, Bruce

Following the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report [TAR; IPCC, 2001], and the paucity of climate change impact assessments from developing nations, there has been a significant growth in activities to redress this shortcoming. However, undertaking impact assessments (in relation to malaria, crop stress, regional water supply, etc.) is contingent on available climate-scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional issues of importance. These scales are commonly far finer than even the native resolution of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) (the principal tools for climate change research), let alone the skillful resolution (scales of aggregation at which GCM observational error is acceptable for a given application) of GCMs.Consequently, there is a growing demand for regional-scale scenarios, which in turn are reliant on techniques to downscale from GCMs, such as empirical downscaling or nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These methods require significant skill, experiential knowledge, and computational infrastructure in order to derive credible regional-scale scenarios. In contrast, it is often the case that impact assessment researchers in developing nations have inadequate resources with limited access to scientists in the broader international scientific community who have the time and expertise to assist. However, where developing effective downscaled scenarios is problematic, it is possible that much useful information can still be obtained for impact assessments by examining the system sensitivity to largerscale climate perturbations. Consequently, one may argue that the early phase of assessing sensitivity and vulnerability should first be characterized by evaluation of the first-order impacts, rather than immediately addressing the finer, secondary factors that are dependant on scenarios derived through downscaling.

Cross-industry dimensionality of the commitment to change scale in China.

PubMed

Chen, Jingqiu; Wang, Lei

2011-06-01

Commitment to organizational change can explain a range of employees' attitudes and behaviors during organizational change, and its measurement is central to explaining such organizational linkages. The purpose of this study is to re-examine the dimensionality of Herscovitch and Meyer's Commitment to Change Scale across two different industrial samples in a non-Western cultural context (China). The two samples were 198 civil servants (60.0% men; M age = 29.3 yr., M organizational tenure = 62.7 mo.) and 442 high-tech company employees (58.2% men; M age = 30.5 yr., M organizational tenure = 66.5 mo.) who had respectively undergone major changes in compensation and performance appraisal systems in their organizations at the time of the research. Results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses showed that a four-factor model with 14 items fit the data best in both samples. The generality of the scale's structure as well as its implications for change-management practices are discussed.

Unification of small and large time scales for biological evolution: deviations from power law.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Debashish; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kunwar, Ambarish

2003-02-14

We develop a unified model that describes both "micro" and "macro" evolutions within a single theoretical framework. The ecosystem is described as a dynamic network; the population dynamics at each node of this network describes the "microevolution" over ecological time scales (i.e., birth, ageing, and natural death of individual organisms), while the appearance of new nodes, the slow changes of the links, and the disappearance of existing nodes accounts for the "macroevolution" over geological time scales (i.e., the origination, evolution, and extinction of species). In contrast to several earlier claims in the literature, we observe strong deviations from power law in the regime of long lifetimes.

Holocene multidecadal- to millennial-scale variations in Iceland-Scotland overflow and their relationship to climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mjell, Tor Lien; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Eldevik, Tor; Kleiven, Helga Kikki F.

2015-05-01

The Nordic Seas overflows are an important part of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. While there is growing evidence that the overflow of dense water changed on orbital time scales during the Holocene, less is known about the variability on shorter time scales beyond the instrumental record. Here we reconstruct the relative changes in flow strength of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW), the eastern branch of the overflows, on multidecadal-millennial time scales. The reconstruction is based on mean sortable silt (SS>¯) from a sediment core on the Gardar Drift (60°19'N, 23°58'W, 2081 m). Our SS>¯ record reveals that the main variance in ISOW vigor occurred on millennial time scales (1-2 kyr) with particularly prominent fluctuations after 8 kyr. Superimposed on the millennial variability, there were multidecadal-centennial flow speed fluctuations during the early Holocene (10-9 kyr) and one prominent minimum at 0.9 kyr. We find a broad agreement between reconstructed ISOW and regional North Atlantic climate, where a strong (weak) ISOW is generally associated with warm (cold) climate. We further identify the possible contribution of anomalous heat and freshwater forcing, respectively, related to reconstructed overflow variability. We infer that ocean poleward heat transport can explain the relationship between regional climate and ISOW during the middle to late Holocene, whereas freshwater input provides a possible explanation for the reduced overflow during early Holocene (8-10 kyr).

NMR fingerprinting as a tool to evaluate post-harvest time-related changes of peaches, tomatoes and plums.

PubMed

Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Luchinat, Claudio

2015-09-01

The time-related changes of three agricultural products, coming from two distribution routes, have been followed using NMR fingerprinting to monitor metabolic variations occurring during several days of cold storage. An NMR profiling approach was employed to evaluate the variations in metabolic profile and metabolite content in three different agricultural products highly consumed in Italy (peaches, tomatoes and plums) coming from Tuscanian farms and how they change with time after collection. For each product, we followed the time-related changes during cold storage along three different collection periods. We monitored the variations in metabolic fingerprint and the trend of a set of metabolites, focusing our attention on nutritive and health-promoting metabolites (mainly, essential amino acids and antioxidants) as well as metabolites that contribute to the taste. Concurrently, for comparison, the time-dependent changes of the same kind of products coming from large-scale distribution have been also analyzed under the same conditions. In this second category, only slight variations in the metabolic fingerprint and metabolite levels were seen during cold storage. Unsupervised and supervised multivariate statistics was also employed to enlighten the differences between the three collections. In particular it seems that the metabolic fingerprint of large-scale distribution products is quite similar in the early, middle and late collection, while peaches and plums locally collected are markedly different among the three periods. The metabolic profiles of the agricultural products belonging to these two different distribution routes are intrinsically different, and they show different changes during the time of cold storage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The RATIO method for time-resolved Laue crystallography

PubMed Central

Coppens, Philip; Pitak, Mateusz; Gembicky, Milan; Messerschmidt, Marc; Scheins, Stephan; Benedict, Jason; Adachi, Shin-ichi; Sato, Tokushi; Nozawa, Shunsuke; Ichiyanagi, Kohei; Chollet, Matthieu; Koshihara, Shin-ya

2009-01-01

A RATIO method for analysis of intensity changes in time-resolved pump–probe Laue diffraction experiments is described. The method eliminates the need for scaling the data with a wavelength curve representing the spectral distribution of the source and removes the effect of possible anisotropic absorption. It does not require relative scaling of series of frames and removes errors due to all but very short term fluctuations in the synchrotron beam. PMID:19240334

Microtubule Dynamics Scale with Cell Size to Set Spindle Length and Assembly Timing.

PubMed

Lacroix, Benjamin; Letort, Gaëlle; Pitayu, Laras; Sallé, Jérémy; Stefanutti, Marine; Maton, Gilliane; Ladouceur, Anne-Marie; Canman, Julie C; Maddox, Paul S; Maddox, Amy S; Minc, Nicolas; Nédélec, François; Dumont, Julien

2018-05-21

Successive cell divisions during embryonic cleavage create increasingly smaller cells, so intracellular structures must adapt accordingly. Mitotic spindle size correlates with cell size, but the mechanisms for this scaling remain unclear. Using live cell imaging, we analyzed spindle scaling during embryo cleavage in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans and sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. We reveal a common scaling mechanism, where the growth rate of spindle microtubules scales with cell volume, which explains spindle shortening. Spindle assembly timing is, however, constant throughout successive divisions. Analyses in silico suggest that controlling the microtubule growth rate is sufficient to scale spindle length and maintain a constant assembly timing. We tested our in silico predictions to demonstrate that modulating cell volume or microtubule growth rate in vivo induces a proportional spindle size change. Our results suggest that scalability of the microtubule growth rate when cell size varies adapts spindle length to cell volume. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Eating tasty food to cope. Longitudinal association with BMI.

PubMed

Boggiano, M M; Wenger, L E; Turan, B; Tatum, M M; Morgan, P R; Sylvester, M D

2015-04-01

The goals of this study were to determine if a change in certain motives to eat highly palatable food, as measured by the Palatable Eating Motives Scale (PEMS), could predict a change in body mass index (BMI) over time, to assess the temporal stability of these motive scores, and to test the reliability of previously reported associations between eating tasty foods to cope and BMI. BMI, demographics, and scores on the PEMS and the Binge Eating Scale were obtained from 192 college students. Test-retest analysis was performed on the PEMS motives in groups varying in three gap times between tests. Regression analyses determined what PEMS motives predicted a change in BMI over two years. The results replicated previous findings that eating palatable food for Coping motives (e.g., to forget about problems, reduce negative feelings) is associated with BMI. Test-retest correlations revealed that motive scores, while somewhat stable, can change over time. Importantly, among overweight participants, a change in Coping scores predicted a change in BMI over 2 years, such that a 1-point change in Coping predicted a 1.76 change in BMI (equivalent to a 10.5 lb. change in body weight) independent of age, sex, ethnicity, and initial binge-eating status (Cohen's f(2) effect size = 1.44). The large range in change of Coping scores suggests it is possible to decrease frequency of eating to cope by more than 1 scale point to achieve weight losses greater than 10 lbs. in young overweight adults, a group already at risk for rapid weight gain. Hence, treatments aimed specifically at reducing palatable food intake for coping reasons vs. for social, reward, or conformity reasons, should help achieve a healthier body weight and prevent obesity if this motive-type is identified prior to significant weight gain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The adjusting factor method for weight-scaling truckloads of mixed hardwood sawlogs

Treesearch

Edward L. Adams

1976-01-01

A new method of weight-scaling truckloads of mixed hardwood sawlogs systematically adjusts for changes in the weight/volume ratio of logs coming into a sawmill. It uses a conversion factor based on the running average of weight/volume ratios of randomly selected sample loads. A test of the method indicated that over a period of time the weight-scaled volume should...

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment.

PubMed

McDonald, Karlie S; Hobday, Alistair J; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Thompson, Peter A

2018-07-01

The effects of anthropogenic global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes have been reported in aquatic systems across the world. Complex synergies between concurrent environmental stressors and the resilience of the system to regime shifts, which vary in space and time, determine the capacity for marine systems to maintain structure and function with global environmental change. Consequently, an interdisciplinary approach that facilitates the development of new methods for the exchange of knowledge between scientists across multiple scales is required to effectively understand, quantify and predict climate impacts on marine ecosystem services. We use a literature review to assess the limitations and assumptions of current pathways to exchange interdisciplinary knowledge and the transferability of research findings across spatial and temporal scales and levels of biological organization to advance scientific understanding of global environmental change in marine systems. We found that species-specific regional scale climate change research is most commonly published, and "supporting" is the ecosystem service most commonly referred to in publications. In addition, our paper outlines a trajectory for the future development of integrated climate change science for sustaining marine ecosystem services such as investment in interdisciplinary education and connectivity between disciplines. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wildfire disturbance, erosion and sedimentation risks following the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, K.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.; Florsheim, J. L.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

2016-12-01

Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that causes abrupt changes to hydrological responses and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Burning hillslope vegetation during wildfires induces changes to sediment supply and stream flow magnitude. Altered post-fire processes such as channel erosion and sedimentation or flooding enhance downstream hazards that may threaten human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using data from a small drainage basin (Williams Canyon, 4.7 km2) in the Colorado front range burned by the 2012 Waldo Fire as a case study, we investigate post-fire recovery and assess changes in fire-related risks to downstream areas. Our local ground-based precipitation, field measurements, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning together with satellite-based remote sensing data (i.e. Landsat) provide a basis for time series analyses of reach-scale erosion and sedimentation response to rainfall patterns as vegetation patterns change following the wildfire. As a first step in quantifying the likelihood and consequences of specific risk scenarios, we examine changes in the combined probability of storm flows and post-fire erosion and sedimentation as vegetation recovers within the study watershed. We explore possible feedbacks and thresholds related to vegetation-hydrology-sediment interactions following wildfire under changing climate regimes. This information is needed to assist in post-fire management to promote sustainability of wildland fluvial systems.

Crossover from antipersistent to persistent behavior in time series possessing the generalyzed dynamic scaling law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balankin, Alexander S.; Morales Matamoros, Oswaldo; Gálvez M., Ernesto; Pérez A., Alfonso

2004-03-01

The behavior of crude oil price volatility is analyzed within a conceptual framework of kinetic roughening of growing interfaces. We find that the persistent long-horizon volatilities satisfy the Family-Viscek dynamic scaling ansatz, whereas the mean-reverting in time short horizon volatilities obey the generalized scaling law with continuously varying scaling exponents. Furthermore we find that the crossover from antipersistent to persistent behavior is accompanied by a change in the type of volatility distribution. These phenomena are attributed to the complex avalanche dynamics of crude oil markets and so a similar behavior may be observed in a wide variety of physical systems governed by avalanche dynamics.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Two-year, randomized, controlled study of safinamide as add-on to levodopa in mid to late Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Borgohain, Rupam; Szasz, Jozsef; Stanzione, Paolo; Meshram, Chandrashekhar; Bhatt, Mohit H; Chirilineau, Dana; Stocchi, Fabrizio; Lucini, Valentina; Giuliani, Rodolfo; Forrest, Emma; Rice, Patricia; Anand, Ravi

2014-09-01

In a 6-month double-blind, placebo-controlled study of Parkinson's disease patients with motor fluctuations, safinamide 50 and 100 mg/d significantly increased ON-time without increasing dyskinesia. Further long-term safinamide use in these patients was evaluated over an additional 18 months. Patients continued on their randomized placebo, 50, or 100 mg/d safinamide. The primary endpoint was change in Dyskinesia Rating Scale total score during ON-time over 24 months. Other efficacy endpoints included change in ON-time without troublesome dyskinesia, changes in individual diary categories, depressive symptoms, and quality of life measures. Change in Dyskinesia Rating Scale was not significantly different in safinamide versus placebo groups, despite decreased mean total Dyskinesia Rating Scale with safinamide compared with an almost unchanged score in placebo. Ad hoc subgroup analysis of moderate to severe dyskinetic patients at baseline (36% of patients) showed a decrease with safinamide 100 mg/d compared with placebo (P = 0.0317). Improvements in motor function, activities of daily living, depressive symptoms, clinical status, and quality of life at 6 months remained significant at 24 months. Adverse events and discontinuation rates were similar with safinamide and placebo. This 2-year, controlled study of add-on safinamide in mid-to-late Parkinson's disease with motor fluctuations, although not demonstrating an overall difference in dyskinesias between patients and controls, showed improvement in dyskinesia in patients at least moderately dyskinetic at baseline. The study additionally demonstrated significant clinical benefits in ON-time (without troublesome dyskinesia), OFF-time, activities of daily living, motor symptoms, quality of life, and symptoms of depression. © 2014 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

A New Look at Big History

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkey, Kate

2014-01-01

The article sets out a "big history" which resonates with the priorities of our own time. A globalizing world calls for new spacial scales to underpin what the history curriculum addresses, "big history" calls for new temporal scales, while concern over climate change calls for a new look at subject boundaries. The article…

Chemistry resolved kinetic flow modeling of TATB based explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitello, Peter; Fried, Laurence E.; William, Howard; Levesque, George; Souers, P. Clark

2012-03-01

Detonation waves in insensitive, TATB-based explosives are believed to have multiple time scale regimes. The initial burn rate of such explosives has a sub-microsecond time scale. However, significant late-time slow release in energy is believed to occur due to diffusion limited growth of carbon. In the intermediate time scale concentrations of product species likely change from being in equilibrium to being kinetic rate controlled. We use the thermo-chemical code CHEETAH linked to an ALE hydrodynamics code to model detonations. We term our model chemistry resolved kinetic flow, since CHEETAH tracks the time dependent concentrations of individual species in the detonation wave and calculates EOS values based on the concentrations. We present here two variants of our new rate model and comparison with hot, ambient, and cold experimental data for PBX 9502.

An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

PubMed

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features.

An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

PubMed Central

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features. PMID:24599259

Divergence of species responses to climate change

Treesearch

Songlin Fei; Johanna M. Desprez; Kevin M. Potter; Insu Jo; Jonathan A. Knott; Christopher M. Oswalt

2017-01-01

Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impactsare less understood.Weanalyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more...

The Dynamics of Population, Built-up Areas and their Evolving Associations in Gridded Population across Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, F. R.; Gaughan, A. E.; Tatem, A. J.; Linard, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Nieves, J. J.; Reed, P.

2017-12-01

Gridded population data is commonly used to understand the `now' of hazard risk and mitigation management, health and disease modelling, and global change-, economic-, environmental-, and sustainability-related research. But to understand how human population change at local to global scales influences and is influenced by environmental changes requires novel ways of treating data and statistically describing associations of measured population counts with associated covariates. One of the most critical components in such gridded estimates is the relationship between built-up areas and population located in these areas. This relationship is rarely static and accurately estimating changes in built-areas through time and the changing human population around them is critical when applying gridded population datasets in studies of other environmental change. The research presented here discusses these issues in the context of multitemporal, gridded population data, using new technologies and sources of remotely-sensed and modeled built-up areas. We discuss applications of these data in environmental analyses and intercomparisons with other such data across scales.

Dynamic Performance of High Bypass Ratio Turbine Engines With Water Ingestion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, S. N. B.

1996-01-01

The research on dynamic performance of high bypass turbofan engines includes studies on inlets, turbomachinery and the total engine system operating with air-water mixture; the water may be in vapor, droplet, or film form, and their combinations. Prediction codes (WISGS, WINCOF, WINCOF-1, WINCLR, and Transient Engine Performance Code) for performance changes, as well as changes in blade-casing clearance, have been established and demonstrated in application to actual, generic engines. In view of the continuous changes in water distribution in turbomachinery, the performance of both components and the total engine system must be determined in a time-dependent mode; hence, the determination of clearance changes also requires a time-dependent approach. In general, the performance and clearances changes cannot be scaled either with respect to operating or ingestion conditions. Removal of water prior to phase change is the most effective means of avoiding ingestion effects. Sufficient background has been established to perform definitive, full scale tests on a set of components and a complete engine to establish engine control and operability with various air-water vapor-water mixtures.

Stability and Change in Interests: A Longitudinal Study of Adolescents from Grades 8 through 12

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tracey, Terence J. G.; Robbins, Steven B.; Hofsess, Christy D.

2005-01-01

The pattern of RIASEC interests and academic skills were assessed longitudinally from a large-scale national database at three time points: eight grade, 10th grade, and 12th grade. Validation and cross-validation samples of 1000 males and 1000 females in each set were used to test the pattern of these scores over time relative to mean changes,…

Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

PubMed

Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-12-05

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Kinetic energy budget during strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1980-01-01

Kinetic energy budgets are computed during a cold air outbreak in association with strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States. The period is characterized by large generation of kinetic energy due to cross-contour flow. Horizontal export and dissipation of energy to subgrid scales of motion constitute the important energy sinks. Rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals during a 36 h period are used in the analysis and reveal that energy fluctuations on a time scale of less than 12 h are generally small even though the overall energy balance does change considerably during the period in conjunction with an upper level trough which moves through the region. An error analysis of the energy budget terms suggests that this major change in the budget is not due to random errors in the input data but is caused by the changing synoptic situation. The study illustrates the need to consider the time and space scales of associated weather phenomena in interpreting energy budgets obtained through use of higher frequency data.

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

PubMed

Gray, Clark L; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E

2015-02-01

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark L.; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E.

2015-01-01

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions. PMID:25620805

ICLEA - The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Markus J.; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Blume, Theresa; Itzerott, Sibylle; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin; Iclea Team

2016-04-01

In the Virtual Institute ICLEA we view on past changes as natural experiments as a guidebook for better anticipation of future changes and their impacts. Since the natural evolution became increasingly superimposed by human impacts since the Neolithic we include an in-depth discussion of impacts of climate and environment change on societies and vice versa. The partner focusing their research capacities and expertise in ICLEA and offers young researchers an interdisciplinary and structured education and promote their early independence through coaching and mentoring. Training, Research and Analytical workshops between research partners of ICLEA are an important measure to qualify young researchers. Understanding causes and effects of present-day climate change on landscapes and the human habitat faces two main challenges, (I) too short time series of instrumental observation that do not cover the full range of variability since mechanisms of climate change and landscape evolution work on different time scales, which often not susceptible to human perception, and, (II) distinct regional differences due to the location with respect to oceanic/continental climatic influences, the geological underground, and the history and intensity of anthropogenic land-use. Both challenges are central for the ICLEA research strategy and demand a high degree of interdisciplinary. In particular, the need to link observations and measurements of ongoing changes with information from the past taken from natural archives requires joint work of scientists with very different time perspectives. On the one hand, scientists that work at geological time scales of thousands and more years and, on the other hand, those observing and investigating recent processes at short time scales. The long-term mission of the Virtual Institute is to provide a substantiated data basis for sustained environmental maintenance based on a profound process understanding at all relevant time scales. Aim is to explore processes of climate and landscape evolution in an historical cultural landscape extending from northeastern Germany into northwestern Poland. The northern-central European lowlands will be facilitated as a natural laboratory providing an ideal case for utilizing a systematic and holistic approach. Five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects: WP 1 focused on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analyzing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 are focused on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last centuries up to few millennia, varved lake sediments cover the entire research time interval at seasonal to decadal resolution and palaeosoils and geomorphological features also cover the entire period but not continuously and with lower resolution. Complementary information, like climate, tree ecophysiological and limnological data etc., are provided by cooperation with associated partners. Further information about ICLEA: www.iclea.de

Seasonal to multi-decadal trends in apparent optical properties in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, James G.; Nelson, Norman B.; Siegel, David A.

2017-01-01

Multi-decadal, monthly observations of optical and biogeochemical properties, made as part of the Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea, allow for the examination of temporal trends in vertical light attenuation and their potential controls. Trends in the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, Kd(λ), and a proxy for its spectral shape reflect changes in phytoplankton and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) characteristics. The length and methodological consistency of this time series provide an excellent opportunity to extend analyses of seasonal cycles of apparent optical properties to interannual and decadal time scales. Here, we characterize changes in the magnitude and spectral shape proxy of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra and compare them to available biological and optical data from the BATS time series program. The time series analyses reveal a 1.01%±0.18% annual increase of the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 443 nm over the upper 75 m of the water column while showing no significant change in selected spectral characteristics over the study period. These and other observations indicate that changes in phytoplankton rather than changes in CDOM abundance are the primary driver for the diffuse attenuation trends on multi-year timescales for this region. Our findings are inconsistent with previous decadal-scale global ocean water clarity and global satellite ocean color analyses yet are consistent with recent analyses of the BATS time series and highlight the value of long-term consistent observation at ocean time series sites.

Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Jon; Payo, Andres; Murray, Brad; Orford, Julian; Eliot, Matt; Cowell, Peter

2016-03-01

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called 'reduced complexity' models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed 'appropriate complexity modelling' of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Plant Biodiversity Change Across Scales During the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Vellend, Mark; Baeten, Lander; Becker-Scarpitta, Antoine; Boucher-Lalonde, Véronique; McCune, Jenny L; Messier, Julie; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Sax, Dov F

2017-04-28

Plant communities have undergone dramatic changes in recent centuries, although not all such changes fit with the dominant biodiversity-crisis narrative used to describe them. At the global scale, future declines in plant species diversity are highly likely given habitat conversion in the tropics, although few extinctions have been documented for the Anthropocene to date (<0.1%). Nonnative species introductions have greatly increased plant species richness in many regions of the world at the same time that they have led to the creation of new hybrid polyploid species by bringing previously isolated congeners into close contact. At the local scale, conversion of primary vegetation to agriculture has decreased plant diversity, whereas other drivers of change-e.g., climate warming, habitat fragmentation, and nitrogen deposition-have highly context-dependent effects, resulting in a distribution of temporal trends with a mean close to zero. These results prompt a reassessment of how conservation goals are defined and justified.

Computing entropy change in synoptic-scale system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. P.; Hu, Y. Y.; Cao, H. X.; Fu, C. F.; Feng, G. L.

2018-03-01

Thermodynamic entropy is of great importance in the atmospheric physics and chemistry process, because it is a non-conserved state function which making a system's tendency towards spontaneous change. But how the entropy forces a synoptic-scale system is still not well known. In this paper, we analyzed the entropy change in atmosphere system, by calculating several examples of extra tropical cyclones over the Yellow River and its adjacent area in summer. The results show that a strong negative entropy flux appears over the north of a stationary front and the thresholds Fe S ≤ - 280 and ∂s / ∂t ≤ - 50 are satisfied. At the same time, the change of total entropy is smaller than zero. Therefore the cyclone developed quickly and daily precipitation reached 371 mm, which is heaviest rain over the Yellows River area in summer. We suggest the dynamical entropy should be developed to improve the forecasting technique of heavy rainfall event in synoptic-scale.

Computational Morphometry for Detecting Changes in Brain Structure Due to Development, Aging, Learning, Disease and Evolution

PubMed Central

Mietchen, Daniel; Gaser, Christian

2009-01-01

The brain, like any living tissue, is constantly changing in response to genetic and environmental cues and their interaction, leading to changes in brain function and structure, many of which are now in reach of neuroimaging techniques. Computational morphometry on the basis of Magnetic Resonance (MR) images has become the method of choice for studying macroscopic changes of brain structure across time scales. Thanks to computational advances and sophisticated study designs, both the minimal extent of change necessary for detection and, consequently, the minimal periods over which such changes can be detected have been reduced considerably during the last few years. On the other hand, the growing availability of MR images of more and more diverse brain populations also allows more detailed inferences about brain changes that occur over larger time scales, way beyond the duration of an average research project. On this basis, a whole range of issues concerning the structures and functions of the brain are now becoming addressable, thereby providing ample challenges and opportunities for further contributions from neuroinformatics to our understanding of the brain and how it changes over a lifetime and in the course of evolution. PMID:19707517

Diffusion and scaling during early embryonic pattern formation.

PubMed

Gregor, Thomas; Bialek, William; de Ruyter van Steveninck, Rob R; Tank, David W; Wieschaus, Eric F

2005-12-20

Development of spatial patterns in multicellular organisms depends on gradients in the concentration of signaling molecules that control gene expression. In the Drosophila embryo, Bicoid (Bcd) morphogen controls cell fate along 70% of the anteroposterior axis but is translated from mRNA localized at the anterior pole. Gradients of Bcd and other morphogens are thought to arise through diffusion, but this basic assumption has never been rigorously tested in living embryos. Furthermore, because diffusion sets a relationship between length and time scales, it is hard to see how patterns of gene expression established by diffusion would scale proportionately as egg size changes during evolution. Here, we show that the motion of inert molecules through the embryo is well described by the diffusion equation on the relevant length and time scales, and that effective diffusion constants are essentially the same in closely related dipteran species with embryos of very different size. Nonetheless, patterns of gene expression in these different species scale with egg length. We show that this scaling can be traced back to scaling of the Bcd gradient itself. Our results, together with constraints imposed by the time scales of development, suggest that the mechanism for scaling is a species-specific adaptation of the Bcd lifetime.

Characteristics of oxide scale formed on Cu-bearing austenitic stainless steel during early stages of high temperature oxidation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, Srinivasan; Krishna, Nanda Gopala; Kim, Dong-Ik

2015-10-01

Oxide scale evolution on Cu-bearing austenitic stainless steel 304H at 650 °C, in ambient air, for exposure times 100, 300, 500 and 1000 h, has been investigated. Surface morphology and chemistry of the oxide scale grown were examined using SEM/EDX and XPS. The oxidation kinetics was determined by measuring the weight change using an electronic balance. At the initial stage, up to 500 h of exposure time, the oxidation rate was rapid due to surface reactions governed primarily by oxygen ingress, and then, dropped to a low rate after prolonged oxidation for 1000 h. The diffusion of reactants through the initially formed oxide scale limits the oxidation rate at longer times, thus, the progress of reaction followed the parabolic kinetics. The formed oxide scale was enriched significantly with segregation and subsequent oxidation of Nb, and finely dispersed metallic Cu particles. Within the time frame of oxidation, the oxide scale was mainly composed of mixed oxides such as FeCr2O4 and MnCr2O4 along with the binary oxides of Fe, Cr and Mn. Moreover, the precipitation fraction of Cu-rich particles on the oxide scale increased markedly with increase of exposure times. The chemical heterogeneity of oxide scale suggests that the oxidation occurred in a non-selective manner.

Urban Evolution: the Role of Water

EPA Science Inventory

The structure, function, and services of urban ecosystems evolve over time scales from seconds to centuries as Earth's population grows, infrastructure ages, and sociopolitical values alter them. In order to systematically study changes over time, the concept of "urban evolution...

Statistical analysis of the time and space characteristic scales for large precipitating systems in the equatorial, tropical, sahelian and mid-latitude regions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duroure, Christophe; Sy, Abdoulaye; Baray, Jean luc; Van baelen, Joel; Diop, Bouya

2017-04-01

Precipitation plays a key role in the management of sustainable water resources and flood risk analyses. Changes in rainfall will be a critical factor determining the overall impact of climate change. We propose to analyse long series (10 years) of daily precipitation at different regions. We present the Fourier densities energy spectra and morphological spectra (i.e. probability repartition functions of the duration and the horizontal scale) of large precipitating systems. Satellite data from the Global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) and local pluviometers long time series in Senegal and France are used and compared in this work. For mid-latitude and Sahelian regions (North of 12°N), the morphological spectra are close to exponential decreasing distribution. This fact allows to define two characteristic scales (duration and space extension) for the precipitating region embedded into the large meso-scale convective system (MCS). For tropical and equatorial regions (South of 12°N) the morphological spectra are close to a Levy-stable distribution (power law decrease) which does not allow to define a characteristic scale (scaling range). When the time and space characteristic scales are defined, a "statistical velocity" of precipitating MCS can be defined, and compared to observed zonal advection. Maps of the characteristic scales and Levy-stable exponent over West Africa and south Europe are presented. The 12° latitude transition between exponential and Levy-stable behaviors of precipitating MCS is compared with the result of ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis for the same period. This morphological sharp transition could be used to test the different parameterizations of deep convection in forecast models.

Millennial-Scale Temperature Change Velocity in the Continental Northern Neotropics

PubMed Central

Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Bush, Mark; Lozano-García, Socorro; Sosa-Nájera, Susana

2013-01-01

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years. PMID:24312614

Millennial-scale temperature change velocity in the continental northern Neotropics.

PubMed

Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Bush, Mark; Lozano-García, Socorro; Sosa-Nájera, Susana

2013-01-01

Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical species is higher than at any time in the last 86,000 years.

Broad-scale trophic shift in the pelagic North Pacific revealed by an oceanic seabird.

PubMed

Ostrom, Peggy H; Wiley, Anne E; James, Helen F; Rossman, Sam; Walker, William A; Zipkin, Elise F; Chikaraishi, Yoshito

2017-03-29

Human-induced ecological change in the open oceans appears to be accelerating. Fisheries, climate change and elevated nutrient inputs are variously blamed, at least in part, for altering oceanic ecosystems. Yet it is challenging to assess the extent of anthropogenic change in the open oceans, where historical records of ecological conditions are sparse, and the geographical scale is immense. We developed millennial-scale amino acid nitrogen isotope records preserved in ancient animal remains to understand changes in food web structure and nutrient regimes in the oceanic realm of the North Pacific Ocean (NPO). Our millennial-scale isotope records of amino acids in bone collagen in a wide-ranging oceanic seabird, the Hawaiian petrel ( Pterodroma sandwichensis ), showed that trophic level declined over time. The amino acid records do not support a broad-scale increase in nitrogen fixation in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, rejecting an earlier interpretation based on bulk and amino acid specific δ 15 N chronologies for Hawaiian deep-sea corals and bulk δ 15 N chronologies for the Hawaiian petrel. Rather, our work suggests that the food web structure in the NPO has shifted at a broad geographical scale, a phenomenon potentially related to industrial fishing. © 2017 The Author(s).

Androgen changes and flexible rutting behaviour in male giraffes.

PubMed

Seeber, Peter A; Duncan, Patrick; Fritz, Hervé; Ganswindt, André

2013-10-23

The social organization of giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) imposes a high-cost reproductive strategy on bulls, which adopt a 'roving male' tactic. Our observations on wild giraffes confirm that bulls indeed have unsynchronized rut-like periods, not unlike another tropical megaherbivore, the elephant, but on a much shorter timescale. We found profound changes in male sexual and social activities at the scale of about two weeks. This so far undescribed rutting behaviour is closely correlated with changes in androgen concentrations and appears to be driven by them. The short time scale of the changes in sexual and social activity may explain why dominance and reproductive status in male giraffe in the field seem to be unstable.

Androgen changes and flexible rutting behaviour in male giraffes

PubMed Central

Seeber, Peter A.; Duncan, Patrick; Fritz, Hervé; Ganswindt, André

2013-01-01

The social organization of giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) imposes a high-cost reproductive strategy on bulls, which adopt a ‘roving male’ tactic. Our observations on wild giraffes confirm that bulls indeed have unsynchronized rut-like periods, not unlike another tropical megaherbivore, the elephant, but on a much shorter timescale. We found profound changes in male sexual and social activities at the scale of about two weeks. This so far undescribed rutting behaviour is closely correlated with changes in androgen concentrations and appears to be driven by them. The short time scale of the changes in sexual and social activity may explain why dominance and reproductive status in male giraffe in the field seem to be unstable. PMID:23925833

Relative importance of time, land use and lithology on determining aquifer-scale denitrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolbe, Tamara; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Marçais, Jean; Babey, Tristan; Thomas, Zahra; Peiffer, Stefan; Aquilina, Luc; Labasque, Thierry; Laverman, Anniet; Fleckenstein, Jan; Boulvais, Philippe; Pinay, Gilles

2017-04-01

Unconfined shallow aquifers are commonly contaminated by nitrate in agricultural regions, because of excess fertilizer application over the last decades. Watershed studies have indicated that 1) changes in agricultural practices have caused changes in nitrate input over time, 2) denitrification occurs in localized hotspots within the aquifer, and 3) heterogeneous groundwater flow circulation has led to strong nitrate gradients in aquifers that are not yet well understood. In this study we investigated the respective influence of land use, groundwater transit time distribution, and hotspot distribution on groundwater denitrification with a particular interest on how a detailed understanding of transit time distributions could be used to upscale the point denitrification measurements to the aquifer-scale. We measured CFC-based groundwater age, oxygen, nitrate, and dinitrogen gas excess in 16 agricultural wells of an unconfined crystalline aquifer in Brittany, France. Groundwater age data was used to calibrate a mechanistic groundwater flow model of the study site. Historical nitrate inputs were reconstructed by using measured nitrate concentrations, dinitrogen gas excess and transit time distributions of the wells. Field data showed large differences in denitrification activity among wells, strongly associated with differences in transit time distribution. This suggests that knowing groundwater flow dynamics and consequent transit time distributions at the catchment-scale could be used to estimate the overall denitrification capacity of agricultural aquifers.

NDT-Bobath method in normalization of muscle tone in post-stroke patients.

PubMed

Mikołajewska, Emilia

2012-01-01

Ischaemic stroke is responsible for 80-85% of strokes. There is great interest in finding effective methods of rehabilitation for post-stroke patients. The aim of this study was to assess the results of rehabilitation carried out in the normalization of upper limb muscle tonus in patients, estimated on the Ashworth Scale for Grading Spasticity. The examined group consisted of 60 patients after ischaemic stroke. 10 sessions of NDT-Bobath therapy were provided within 2 weeks (ten days of therapy). Patient examinations using the Ashworth Scale for Grading Spasticity were done twice: the first time on admission and the second after the last session of the therapy to assess rehabilitation effects. Among the patients involved in the study, the results measured on the Ashworth Scale (where possible) were as follows: recovery in 16 cases (26.67%), relapse in 1 case (1.67%), no measurable changes (or change within the same grade of the scale) in 8 cases (13.33%). Statistically significant changes were observed in the health status of the patients. These changes, in the area of muscle tone, were favorable and reflected in the outcomes of the assessment using the Ashworth Scale for Grading Spasticity.

Modelling spatiotemporal change using multidimensional arrays Meng

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Meng; Appel, Marius; Pebesma, Edzer

2017-04-01

The large variety of remote sensors, model simulations, and in-situ records provide great opportunities to model environmental change. The massive amount of high-dimensional data calls for methods to integrate data from various sources and to analyse spatiotemporal and thematic information jointly. An array is a collection of elements ordered and indexed in arbitrary dimensions, which naturally represent spatiotemporal phenomena that are identified by their geographic locations and recording time. In addition, array regridding (e.g., resampling, down-/up-scaling), dimension reduction, and spatiotemporal statistical algorithms are readily applicable to arrays. However, the role of arrays in big geoscientific data analysis has not been systematically studied: How can arrays discretise continuous spatiotemporal phenomena? How can arrays facilitate the extraction of multidimensional information? How can arrays provide a clean, scalable and reproducible change modelling process that is communicable between mathematicians, computer scientist, Earth system scientist and stakeholders? This study emphasises on detecting spatiotemporal change using satellite image time series. Current change detection methods using satellite image time series commonly analyse data in separate steps: 1) forming a vegetation index, 2) conducting time series analysis on each pixel, and 3) post-processing and mapping time series analysis results, which does not consider spatiotemporal correlations and ignores much of the spectral information. Multidimensional information can be better extracted by jointly considering spatial, spectral, and temporal information. To approach this goal, we use principal component analysis to extract multispectral information and spatial autoregressive models to account for spatial correlation in residual based time series structural change modelling. We also discuss the potential of multivariate non-parametric time series structural change methods, hierarchical modelling, and extreme event detection methods to model spatiotemporal change. We show how array operations can facilitate expressing these methods, and how the open-source array data management and analytics software SciDB and R can be used to scale the process and make it easily reproducible.

Effects of the 7-8-year cycle in daily mean air temperature as a cross-scale information transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Paluš, Milan

2015-04-01

Using a novel nonlinear time-series analysis method, an information transfer from larger to smaller scales of the air temperature variability has been observed in daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) data from European stations as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 6-11 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to 4-5 years [1]. The strongest effect is exerted by an oscillatory mode with the period close to 8 years and its influence can be seen in 1-2 °C differences of the conditional SAT means taken conditionally on the phase of the 8-year cycle. The size of this effect, however, changes in space and time. The changes in time are studied using sliding window technique, showing that the effect evolves in time, and during the last decades the effect is stronger and significant. Sliding window technique was used along with seasonal division of the data, and it has been found that the cycle is most pronounced in the winter season. Different types of surrogate data are applied in order to establish statistical significance and distinguish the effect of the 7-8-yr cycle from climate variability on shorter time scales. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001.

A High-Resolution Record of Holocene Climate Variability from a Western Canadian Coastal Inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R. E.; Enkin, R. J.; Kulikov, E. A.; Bertram, M. A.; Wright, C. A.; Southon, J. R.; Barrie, J. V.; Baker, J.; Pienitz, R.; Calvert, S. E.; Chang, A. S.; Pedersen, T. F.

2004-12-01

Conditions within the Pacific Ocean have a major effect on the climate of northwestern North America. High resolution records of present and past northeast Pacific climate are revealed in our multi-disciplinary study of annually laminated marine sediments from anoxic coastal inlets of British Columbia. Past climate conditions for the entire Holocene are recorded in the sediment record contained in a 40 meter, annually laminated marine sediment core taken in Effingham Inlet, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, from the French ship the Marion Dufresne, as part of the international IMAGES program. By combining our eight year continuous instrument record of modern coastal ocean dynamics and climate with high-resolution analysis of depositional processes, we have been able to develop proxy measurements of past climatic and oceanographic changes on annual to millennial time scales. Results indicate that regional climate has oscillated on a variety of time scales throughout the Holocene. At times, climatic change has been dramatically rapid. We are also developing digital methods for statistical time-series analyses of physical sediment properties through the Holocene in order to obtain a more objective quantitative approach for detecting cyclicity in our data. Results of the time series analysis of lamination thickness reveals statistically significant spectral peaks of climate scale variability at established decadal to century time scales. These in turn may be related to solar cycles and quasi-cyclical ocean processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the annually laminated time series are periodically interrupted by massive mud intervals which are related to bottom currents and at times paleo-seismic events, illustrating the need for a full understanding of modern oceanographic and sedimentation processes, so an accurate proxy record of past climate can be established.

Time-Structured and Net Intraindividual Variability: Tools for Examining the Development of Dynamic Characteristics and Processes

PubMed Central

Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2009-01-01

The study of intraindividual variability is the study of fluctuations, oscillations, adaptations, and “noise” in behavioral outcomes that manifest on micro-time scales. This paper provides a descriptive frame for the combined study of intraindividual variability and aging/development. At the conceptual level, we highlight that the study of intraindividual variability provides access to dynamic characteristics – construct-level descriptions of individuals' capacities for change (e.g., lability), and dynamic processes – the systematic changes individuals' exhibit in response to endogenous and exogenous influences (e.g., regulation). At the methodological level, we review how quantifications of net intraindividual variability (e.g., iSD) and models of time-structured intraindividual variability (e.g., time-series) are being used to measure and describe dynamic characteristics and processes. At the research design level, we point to the benefits of measurement burst study designs, wherein data are obtained across multiple time scales, for the study of development. PMID:20025395

Three Mars Years of Surface Albedo Changes Observed by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter MARCI Investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J. F.; Wellington, D. F.; Anderson, R. B.; Wolff, M. J.; Supulver, K. D.; Cantor, B. A.; Malin, M. C.

2012-12-01

The NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft has been in its prime mapping orbit of the Red Planet since November 2006, a little over three Mars years. MRO's Mars Color Imager (MARCI) investigation has been acquiring wide-angle, approximately 1 km/pixel resolution multispectral images (from the UV to the short-wave near-IR) throughout the mission from the spacecraft's 300 km circular polar orbit. As of fall 2012, MARCI has acquired more than 25,000 image sequences, with its 180 degree field of view covering local solar times of approximately 15:00 +/- 2 hours at the equator. These images can be merged and map projected to provide near-global imaging coverage of Mars for almost every sol of the mission. These maps have been used to characterize and monitor changes in seasonal and interannual dust and water ice cloud opacity, growth and decay of local- to global-scale dust storms, and polar cap growth and recession. The data are also well-suited for studying small- to large-scale changes in surface albedo markings, important for understanding the nature of aeolian transport of dust and sand in the current Martian environment, as well as for modeling the radiative influence of the darker (warmer) or brighter (cooler) surface on local-scale atmospheric circulation and storm systems. We are using calibrated, map-projected, coregistered subsets of MARCI images to characterize and investigate surface albedo changes in a number of specific regions of interest, based on past Viking Orbiter, Hubble Space Telescope, and Mars Global Surveyor images of changing large-scale surface albedo patterns over recent decades, as well as recent surface missions that have characterized small-scale changes in surface albedo. Specific areas of study of large-scale changes include the dark areas Syrtis Major, Acidalia, Cimmeria, Sirenum, and Solis Lacus, and our initial focus areas for small-scale variations include regions in and around the landing sites of the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit (Gusev crater) and Opportunity (Meridiani Planum), as well as Gale crater, the landing site for the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity. Time-lapse animations of albedo changes in and around Gale crater, for example, reveal tens of km-scale changes in low albedo surface markings both within the crater (including near the rover's planned traverse path) as well as within the 500 km long low albedo wind streak south of the crater. Combined with morphologic, thermal inertia, and compositional/mineralogic constraints from other data sets, MARCI albedo variation measurements can help to constrain present rates of dust and sand transport in a variety of environments on Mars.

Reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the lower extremity functional scale in individuals affected by stroke.

PubMed

Verheijde, Joseph L; White, Fred; Tompkins, James; Dahl, Peder; Hentz, Joseph G; Lebec, Michael T; Cornwall, Mark

2013-12-01

To investigate reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) in individuals affected by stroke. The secondary objective was to test the validity and sensitivity of a single-item linear analog scale (LAS) of function. Prospective cohort reliability and validation study. A single rehabilitation department in an academic medical center. Forty-three individuals receiving neurorehabilitation for lower extremity dysfunction after stroke were studied. Their ages ranged from 32 to 95 years, with a mean of 70 years; 77% were men. Test-retest reliability was assessed by calculating the classical intraclass correlation coefficient, and the Bland-Altman limits of agreement. Validity was assessed by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient between the instruments. Sensitivity to change was assessed by comparing baseline scores with end of treatment scores. Measurements were taken at baseline, after 1-3 days, and at 4 and 8 weeks. The LEFS, Short-Form-36 Physical Function Scale, Berg Balance Scale, Six-Minute Walk Test, Five-Meter Walk Test, Timed Up-and-Go test, and the LAS of function were used. The test-retest reliability of the LEFS was found to be excellent (ICC = 0.96). Correlated with the 6 other measures of function studied, the validity of the LEFS was found to be moderate to high (r = 0.40-0.71). Regarding the sensitivity to change, the mean LEFS scores from baseline to study end increased 1.2 SD and for LAS 1.1 SD. LEFS exhibits good reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change in patients with lower extremity impairments secondary to stroke. Therefore, the LEFS can be a clinically efficient outcome measure in the rehabilitation of patients with subacute stroke. The LAS is shown to be a time-saving and reasonable option to track changes in a patient's functional status. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Insights into changes in precipitation patterns in Brazil from oxygen isotope ratios on speleothems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz, F.; Mathias, V.; Stephen, B. J.; Wang, X.; Cheng, H.; Werner, M.; Edwards, R. L.; Karmann, I.; Auler, A. S.

2008-12-01

Variations in tropical precipitation on millennial and orbital time scales can reflect a Hadley-cell-related anti- phasing between the Northern and Southern hemispheres due to the influence of insolation on the global summer monsoons. A new δ18O speleothem record from northeastern Brazil shows that insolation- driven changes in monsoon intensity are capable of producing a similar, zonally oriented anti-phasing within the same hemisphere. Comparison of our speleothem record with other precipitation-sensitive proxies from the central Andes and southeastern Brazil shows that precipitation in Northeastern Brazil has been out of phase with insolation and rainfall in the rest of tropical South America south of the equator since the Last Glacial Maximum. Northeastern Brazil experienced humid conditions when summer insolation was reduced and arid conditions when insolation was high. While previous interpretations of past climate change in NE South America have commonly invoked meridional displacements in ITCZ location as the main mechanism for changes in precipitation on millennial time scales, our results suggest that remote monsoon forcing is responsible for much of the observed precipitation changes on orbital time scales during the Holocene. These results demonstrate that orbitally driven out-of-phase relationships in precipitation are not limited to interhemispheric anti-phasing as demonstrated previously, but may well occur within the same hemisphere. Speleothem records also indicate contrasting climatic conditions around the Last Glacial Maximum in Brazil, characterized by marked dry and wet climates in the Nordeste and in southeastern Brazil, respectively. It is likely, however, that these regional differences primarily reflect more distant extratropical teleconnections from the Atlantic Ocean and high northern latitude changes during glacial conditions.

Herbarium specimens can reveal impacts of climate change on plant phenology; a review of methods and applications.

PubMed

Jones, Casey A; Daehler, Curtis C

2018-01-01

Studies in plant phenology have provided some of the best evidence for large-scale responses to recent climate change. Over the last decade, more than thirty studies have used herbarium specimens to analyze changes in flowering phenology over time, although studies from tropical environments are thus far generally lacking. In this review, we summarize the approaches and applications used to date. Reproductive plant phenology has primarily been analyzed using two summary statistics, the mean flowering day of year and first-flowering day of year, but mean flowering day has proven to be a more robust statistic. Two types of regression models have been applied to test for associations between flowering, temperature and time: flowering day regressed on year and flowering day regressed on temperature. Most studies analyzed the effect of temperature by averaging temperatures from three months prior to the date of flowering. On average, published studies have used 55 herbarium specimens per species to characterize changes in phenology over time, but in many cases fewer specimens were used. Geospatial grid data are increasingly being used for determining average temperatures at herbarium specimen collection locations, allowing testing for finer scale correspondence between phenology and climate. Multiple studies have shown that inferences from herbarium specimen data are comparable to findings from systematically collected field observations. Understanding phenological responses to climate change is a crucial step towards recognizing implications for higher trophic levels and large-scale ecosystem processes. As herbaria are increasingly being digitized worldwide, more data are becoming available for future studies. As temperatures continue to rise globally, herbarium specimens are expected to become an increasingly important resource for analyzing plant responses to climate change.

Evaluation of reading, writing, and watching TV using the Dutch ICF Activity Inventory.

PubMed

Bruijning, Janna E; van Rens, Ger H M B; Knol, Dirk L; van Nispen, Ruth M A

2014-11-01

To investigate the longitudinal outcomes of rehabilitation (from baseline to 4 and 12 months) at a multidisciplinary rehabilitation center. The three goals ("Reading," "Writing," and "Watching TV") were measured with the Dutch ICF Activity Inventory (D-AI). In addition, outcomes were compared with the Low Vision Quality-of-Life questionnaire (LVQOL) for better insight into the (longitudinal) interpretation. In a cohort of 241 visually impaired persons, corrected and uncorrected linear mixed models were used to determine longitudinal rehabilitation outcomes for the D-AI goals "Reading," "Writing," and "Watching TV," and difficulty and underlying tasks, as well as for the LVQOL scales "Basic aspects" and "Reading and fine work." At baseline, Spearman correlations were determined for similar scales of the D-AI and LVQOL. Importance scores of goals were stable over time. Difficulty scores decreased over time, but the differences were not significant at each measurement moment. For reading, difficulty of underlying tasks seemed to reflect the (change in) difficulty at the goal level; however, change in writing tasks did not reflect the change in the umbrella goal. Each of the three subscales of underlying tasks of the goal "Watching TV" changed in a different way. Changes in similar LVQOL scales were comparable, although less pronounced and more influenced by depression. Prescription or advice of low-vision aids and training in visual devices was not related (p > 0.01) with any of the outcome measures. It seems reasonable to conclude that the decrease in perceived difficulty was an effect of rehabilitation. The D-AI goal scores for difficulty were less influenced by depression and may be more sensitive to measure change over time compared with the LVQOL. Importance scores may not be useful for evaluation purposes.

Variations in synoptic-scale eddy activity during the life cycles of persistent flow anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dole, Randall M.; Neilley, Peter P.

1991-01-01

The objective of the study was to identify how synoptic-scale eddy activity varies throughout the life cycles of major scale flow anomalies. In particular, composite analyses of various measures of synoptic-scale eddy activity are constructed, with the composites obtained relative to the onset and termination times of cases typically associated with either blocking or abnormally intense zonal flows. The potential mechanisms that are likely to contribute to the observed changes in eddy behavior are discussed.

Introduction to the special issue on “Understanding and predicting change in the coastal ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brock, John C.; Barras, John A.; Williams, S. Jeffress

2013-01-01

The coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico owes its current landscape structure to an array of tectonic, erosional and depositional, climatic, geochemical, hydrological, ecological, and human processes that have resulted in some of the world's most complex, dynamic, productive, and threatened ecosystems. Catastrophic hurricane landfalls, ongoing subsidence and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise, disintegration of barrier island chains, and high rates of wetland loss have called attention to the vulnerability of northern Gulf coast ecosystems, habitats, built infrastructure, and economy to natural and anthropogenic threats. The devastating hurricanes of 2005 (Katrina and Rita) motivated the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and partnering researchers to pursue studies aimed at understanding and predicting landscape change and the associated storm hazard vulnerability of northern Gulf coast region ecosystems and human communities. Attaining this science goal requires increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic, historical, and human time scales, and analysis of the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility. This Special Issue of the Journal of Coastal Research communicates northern Gulf of Mexico research results that (1) improve knowledge of prior climates and depositional environments, (2) assess broad regional ecosystem structure and change over Holocene to human time scales, (3) undertake process studies and change analyses of dynamic landscape components, and (4) integrate framework, climate, variable time and spatial scale mapping, monitoring, and discipline-specific process investigations within interdisciplinary studies.

Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-04-01

Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is essential for example for forecasting purposes.

Chaotic phase synchronization in bursting-neuron models driven by a weak periodic force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, Hiroyasu; Suetani, Hiromichi; Kurths, Jürgen; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2012-07-01

We investigate the entrainment of a neuron model exhibiting a chaotic spiking-bursting behavior in response to a weak periodic force. This model exhibits two types of oscillations with different characteristic time scales, namely, long and short time scales. Several types of phase synchronization are observed, such as 1:1 phase locking between a single spike and one period of the force and 1:l phase locking between the period of slow oscillation underlying bursts and l periods of the force. Moreover, spiking-bursting oscillations with chaotic firing patterns can be synchronized with the periodic force. Such a type of phase synchronization is detected from the position of a set of points on a unit circle, which is determined by the phase of the periodic force at each spiking time. We show that this detection method is effective for a system with multiple time scales. Owing to the existence of both the short and the long time scales, two characteristic phenomena are found around the transition point to chaotic phase synchronization. One phenomenon shows that the average time interval between successive phase slips exhibits a power-law scaling against the driving force strength and that the scaling exponent has an unsmooth dependence on the changes in the driving force strength. The other phenomenon shows that Kuramoto's order parameter before the transition exhibits stepwise behavior as a function of the driving force strength, contrary to the smooth transition in a model with a single time scale.

Plates and Mantle Convection: A Far-From Equilibrium Self-Organized System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, S. D.; Lowman, J. P.; Gable, C. W.

2001-12-01

A common observation of plate tectonics is that plate velocities change over short time scales. Some have speculated that these reorganization events are triggered by evolving plate boundaries. This work presents an alternative mechanism, due to the interaction of mobil plates and internally heated convection. We present numerical models of 3D Cartesian convection in an internally-heated fluid with mobile plates that exhibit rapid changes in plate motion. A persistent feature of these calculations is that plate motion is relatively uniform punctuated by rapid reorganization events where plate speed and direction change over a short time period. The rapid changes in plate motion result solely from the interaction of internally-heated convection and the mobile plates. Without plates, the convective planform of an internally-heated fluid evolves into a pattern with a larger number of small cells. When plates are included, the fluid is dominated by plate-scale structures; however, isolated regions develop where heat builds up. These isolated regions are near the location of mature slabs where the plates are older and thicker. As the system evolves, the temperature (and buoyancy) in these isolated regions increases, they become unstable and, as they rise, the net force on the plate is no longer dominated by `slab pull' from the mature slab. The plate reorganization allows the system to transfer heat from the short-wavelength, internal-heating scale, to the longer-wavelength, plate-cooling scale. As we will demonstrate, the interaction between plate motions and the mantle is sufficiently dynamic that evolving plate boundaries are not necessary to achieve rapid changes in plate motion.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale. PMID:26544070

Climate variations in northern North America (6000 BP to present) reconstructed from pollen and tree-ring data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diaz, H.F.; Andrews, J.T.; Short, S.K.

The characteristic anomaly patterns of modern surface temperature and precipitation are compared to tree-ring indices (0-300 yr) and fossil pollen (0-6000 yr) variations in northern North America. The data base consists of 245 climate stations, 55 tree-ring chronologies, 153 modern pollen collections, and 39 fossil pollen sites. A few areas exhibit relatively high climatic sensitivity, displaying generally consistent patterns during alternate warm and cold periods, regardless of time scales. The surface changes are related to the redistribution (i.e., changes in the mean position and strength) of the planetary-scale waves and to north-south shifts in the mean boundary of the Arcticmore » Front. The zone where the largest changes occur is typically located along the mean present-day boundary between Arctic and Pacific airstreams. Establishing plausible relationships between vegetation responses and concomitant changes in atmospheric circulation patterns increases our confidence that the paleoclimatic signals are indeed related to large-scale circulation changes.« less

Local and Catchment-Scale Water Storage Changes in Northern Benin Deduced from Gravity Monitoring at Various Time-Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinderer, J.; Hector, B.; Séguis, L.; Descloitres, M.; Cohard, J.; Boy, J.; Calvo, M.; Rosat, S.; Riccardi, U.; Galle, S.

2013-12-01

Water storage changes (WSC) are investigated by the mean of gravity monitoring in Djougou, northern Benin, in the frame of the GHYRAF (Gravity and Hydrology in Africa) project. In this area, WSC are 1) part of the control system for evapotranspiration (ET) processes, a key variable of the West-African monsoon cycle and 2) the state variable for resource management, a critical issue in storage-poor hard rock basement contexts such as in northern Benin. We show the advantages of gravity monitoring for analyzing different processes in the water cycle involved at various time and space scales, using the main gravity sensors available today (FG5 absolute gravimeter, superconducting gravimeter -SG- and CG5 micro-gravimeter). The study area is also part of the long-term observing system AMMA-Catch, and thus under intense hydro-meteorological monitoring (rain, soil moisture, water table level, ET ...). Gravity-derived WSC are compared at all frequencies to hydrological data and to hydrological models calibrated on these data. Discrepancies are analyzed to discuss the pros and cons of each approach. Fast gravity changes (a few hours) are significant when rain events occur, and involve different contributions: rainfall itself, runoff, fast subsurface water redistribution, screening effect of the gravimeter building and local topography. We investigate these effects and present the statistical results of a set of rain events recorded with the SG installed in Djougou since July 2010. The intermediate time scale of gravity changes (a few days) is caused by ET and both vertical and horizontal water redistribution. The integrative nature of gravity measurements does not allow to separate these different contributions, and the screening from the shelter reduces our ability to retrieve ET values. Also, atmospheric corrections are critical at such frequencies, and deserve some specific attention. However, a quick analysis of gravity changes following rain events shows that the values are in accordance with expected ET values (up to about 5mm/day). Seasonal WSC are analyzed since 2008 using FG5 absolute gravity measurements four times a year and since 2010 using the continuous SG time series. They can reach up to 12 microGal (≈270mm) and show a clear interannual variability, as can be expected from rainfall variability in the area. This data set allows some estimates of an average specific yield for the local aquifer, together with a scaling factor for Magnetic Resonance Soundings-derived water content.

Will growing forests make the global warming problem better or worse?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, K.; Gibbard, S.; Bala, G.; Wickett, M. E.; Phillips, T. J.

2005-12-01

Carbon storage in forests has been promoted as a means to slow global warming. However, forests affect climate not only through the carbon cycle; forests also affect both the absorption of solar radiation and evapotranspiration. Previously, it has been shown that boreal forests have the potential to warm the planet, offsetting the benefits of carbon storage in boreal forests (Betts, Nature 408, 187-190, 2000). Here, we show that direct climate effects of forest growth in mid-latitudes also have the potential to offset benefits of carbon storage. This suggests that mid-latitude afforestation projects must be evaluated very carefully, taking direct climate effects into account. In contrast, low-latitude tropical forests appear to cool the planet both by storing carbon and by increasing evapotranspiration; thus, slowing or reversing tropical deforestation is a win/win strategy from both carbon storage and direct climate perspectives. Evaluation of costs and benefits of afforestation depends on the time scales under consideration. On the shortest time scale, each unit of CO2 taken up by a plant is removed from the atmosphere. However, over centuries most of this CO2 taken up from the atmosphere by plants is replaced by outgassing from the ocean. On the longest time scales, atmospheric carbon dioxide content is controlled by the carbonate-silicate cycle, so the amount of carbon stored in a forest is not relevant to long-term climate change. While atmospheric CO2 impacts of afforestation diminish over time, the direct effects on climate (and silicate weathering) persist, so these effects become more important as the time scale of concern lengthens. In some cases, afforestation is predicted to lead to cooling on the time scale of decades followed by warming on the time scale of centuries. Our study involves simulations using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean to perform idealized (and extreme) land-cover change simulations. We explore the time-dependent carbon-cycle/climate implications of these results using a schematic model of the long-term carbon cycle and climate.

High resolution fossil fuel combustion CO2 emission fluxes for the United States.

PubMed

Gurney, Kevin R; Mendoza, Daniel L; Zhou, Yuyu; Fischer, Marc L; Miller, Chris C; Geethakumar, Sarath; de la Rue du Can, Stephane

2009-07-15

Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions at fine space and time resolution is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle and climate change research. As atmospheric CO2 measurements expand with the advent of a dedicated remote sensing platform and denser in situ measurements, the ability to close the carbon budget at spatial scales of approximately 100 km2 and daily time scales requires fossil fuel CO2 inventories at commensurate resolution. Additionally, the growing interest in U.S. climate change policy measures are best served by emissions that are tied to the driving processes in space and time. Here we introduce a high resolution data product (the "Vulcan" inventory: www.purdue.edu/eas/carbon/vulcan/) that has quantified fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the contiguous U.S. at spatial scales less than 100 km2 and temporal scales as small as hours. This data product completed for the year 2002, includes detail on combustion technology and 48 fuel types through all sectors of the U.S. economy. The Vulcan inventory is built from the decades of local/regional air pollution monitoring and complements these data with census, traffic, and digital road data sets. The Vulcan inventory shows excellent agreement with national-level Department of Energy inventories, despite the different approach taken by the DOE to quantify U.S. fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Comparison to the global 1degree x 1 degree fossil fuel CO2 inventory, used widely by the carbon cycle and climate change community prior to the construction of the Vulcan inventory, highlights the space/time biases inherent in the population-based approach.

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

DOE PAGES

Yu, Sungduk; Pritchard, Michael S.

2015-12-17

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation ismore » more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.« less

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Sungduk; Pritchard, Michael S.

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation ismore » more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.« less

Short and long-term energy intake patterns and their implications for human body weight regulation.

PubMed

Chow, Carson C; Hall, Kevin D

2014-07-01

Adults consume millions of kilocalories over the course of a few years, but the typical weight gain amounts to only a few thousand kilocalories of stored energy. Furthermore, food intake is highly variable from day to day and yet body weight is remarkably stable. These facts have been used as evidence to support the hypothesis that human body weight is regulated by active control of food intake operating on both short and long time scales. Here, we demonstrate that active control of human food intake on short time scales is not required for body weight stability and that the current evidence for long term control of food intake is equivocal. To provide more data on this issue, we emphasize the urgent need for developing new methods for accurately measuring energy intake changes over long time scales. We propose that repeated body weight measurements can be used along with mathematical modeling to calculate long-term changes in energy intake and thereby quantify adherence to a diet intervention and provide dynamic feedback to individuals that seek to control their body weight. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Short and long-term energy intake patterns and their implications for human body weight regulation

PubMed Central

Chow, Carson C.; Hall, Kevin D.

2014-01-01

Adults consume millions of kilocalories over the course of a few years, but the typical weight gain amounts to only a few thousand kilocalories of stored energy. Furthermore, food intake is highly variable from day to day and yet body weight is remarkably stable. These facts have been used as evidence to support the hypothesis that human body weight is regulated by active control of food intake operating on both short and long time scales. Here, we demonstrate that active control of human food intake on short time scales is not required for body weight stability and that the current evidence for long term control of food intake is equivocal. To provide more data on this issue, we emphasize the urgent need for developing new methods for accurately measuring energy intake changes over long time scales. We propose that repeated body weight measurements can be used along with mathematical modeling to calculate long-term changes in energy intake and thereby quantify adherence to a diet intervention and provide dynamic feedback to individuals that seek to control their body weight. PMID:24582679

Real-time monitoring of smallholder farmer responses to intra-seasonal climate variability in central Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krell, N.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Caylor, K. K.

2017-12-01

While international metrics of food security and water availability are generated as spatial averages at the regional to national levels, climate variability impacts are differentially felt at the household level. This project investigated scales of variability of climate impacts on smallholder farmers using social and environmental data in central Kenya. Using sub-daily real-time environmental measurements to monitor smallholder agriculture, we investigated how changes in seasonal precipitation affected food security around Laikipia county from September 2015 to present. We also conducted SMS-based surveys of over 700 farmers to understand farmers' decision-making within the growing season. Our results highlight field-scale heterogeneity in biophysical and social factors governing crop yields using locally sensed real-time environmental data and weekly farmer-reported information about planting, harvesting, irrigation, and crop yields. Our preliminary results show relationships between changes in seasonal precipitation, NDVI, and soil moisture related to crop yields and decision-making at several scales. These datasets present a unique opportunity to collect highly spatially and temporally resolved information from data-poor regions at the household level.

Detecting Selection on Temporal and Spatial Scales: A Genomic Time-Series Assessment of Selective Responses to Devil Facial Tumor Disease

PubMed Central

Brüniche-Olsen, Anna; Austin, Jeremy J.; Jones, Menna E.; Holland, Barbara R.; Burridge, Christopher P.

2016-01-01

Detecting loci under selection is an important task in evolutionary biology. In conservation genetics detecting selection is key to investigating adaptation to the spread of infectious disease. Loci under selection can be detected on a spatial scale, accounting for differences in demographic history among populations, or on a temporal scale, tracing changes in allele frequencies over time. Here we use these two approaches to investigate selective responses to the spread of an infectious cancer—devil facial tumor disease (DFTD)—that since 1996 has ravaged the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii). Using time-series ‘restriction site associated DNA’ (RAD) markers from populations pre- and post DFTD arrival, and DFTD free populations, we infer loci under selection due to DFTD and investigate signatures of selection that are incongruent among methods, populations, and times. The lack of congruence among populations influenced by DFTD with respect to inferred loci under selection, and the direction of that selection, fail to implicate a consistent selective role for DFTD. Instead genetic drift is more likely driving the observed allele frequency changes over time. Our study illustrates the importance of applying methods with different performance optima e.g. accounting for population structure and background selection, and assessing congruence of the results. PMID:26930198

Forced and intrinsic variability in the response to increased wind stress of an idealized Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Chris; Hughes, Chris W.; Blundell, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

use ensemble runs of a three layer, quasi-geostrophic idealized Southern Ocean model to explore the roles of forced and intrinsic variability in response to a linear increase of wind stress imposed over a 30 year period. We find no increase of eastward circumpolar volume transport in response to the increased wind stress. A large part of the resulting time series can be explained by a response in which the eddy kinetic energy is linearly proportional to the wind stress with a possible time lag, but no statistically significant lag is found. However, this simple relationship is not the whole story: several intrinsic time scales also influence the response. We find an e-folding time scale for growth of small perturbations of 1-2 weeks. The energy budget for intrinsic variability at periods shorter than a year is dominated by exchange between kinetic and potential energy. At longer time scales, we find an intrinsic mode with period in the region of 15 years, which is dominated by changes in potential energy and frictional dissipation in a manner consistent with that seen by Hogg and Blundell (2006). A similar mode influences the response to changing wind stress. This influence, robust to perturbations, is different from the supposed linear relationship between wind stress and eddy kinetic energy, and persists for 5-10 years in this model, suggestive of a forced oscillatory mode with period of around 15 years. If present in the real ocean, such a mode would imply a degree of predictability of Southern Ocean dynamics on multiyear time scales.

The detection of local irreversibility in time series based on segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Yue; Shang, Pengjian

2018-06-01

We propose a strategy for the detection of local irreversibility in stationary time series based on multiple scale. The detection is beneficial to evaluate the displacement of irreversibility toward local skewness. By means of this method, we can availably discuss the local irreversible fluctuations of time series as the scale changes. The method was applied to simulated nonlinear signals generated by the ARFIMA process and logistic map to show how the irreversibility functions react to the increasing of the multiple scale. The method was applied also to series of financial markets i.e., American, Chinese and European markets. The local irreversibility for different markets demonstrate distinct characteristics. Simulations and real data support the need of exploring local irreversibility.

Scaling Analysis of Tide Gauge Data from the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Pacific Coasts of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. C.; Smigelski, J. R.; Tebbens, S. F.

2008-12-01

Most coastal regions are subject to inundation due to many periodic and non-periodic inputs including for example: diurnal and semi diurnal tides, storms, tsunamis, and global sea level change. Tide guage data provide a frequently sampled long term record of fluctuations in water level. A power-spectral-density analysis of tidal gauge data is used to quantify persistence (degree of internal correlation over various time intervals) in terms of the scaling exponent β and to identify temporal changes in persistence. The stations are located at different proximity to the open ocean, including bays, harbors, and channels. The datasets are from the NOAA CO-OPS Verified Hourly Station Datum. The length of the data sets ranges from 3 years to 101 years. The hourly data sets are decimated to one record every four hours. All data sets analyzed show three distinct regions of persistence with two inflection points at approximately one day and five days. For times less than one day, the scaling exponent ranges between 0 < β < 2.6. For the time interval 1 to 5 days, the scaling exponent ranges between 1.1 < β < 2.1. For times greater than 5 days, the scaling exponent ranges between 0.4 < β < 0.9. Persistence generally decreases as period increases but is stable between the inflection points. At Duck, NC, long term persistence in the tide gauge signal is 0.6 as compared to 0.9 for the biweekly shoreline position signal over twenty years, suggesting a strong correlation between the two and the possibility of using tide gauge data to quantify nearby shoreline mobility over similar time intervals.

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Robyn S.; Hardisty, David J.; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Runge, Michael C.; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Urban, Dean L.; Maguire, Lynn A.; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J.; Peters, Debra P.C.

2016-01-01

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems.

PubMed

Wilson, Robyn S; Hardisty, David J; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S; Runge, Michael C; Cottingham, Kathryn L; Urban, Dean L; Maguire, Lynn A; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J; Peters, Debra P C

2016-02-01

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers' actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Agroforestry, climate change, and food security

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Successfully addressing global climate change effects on agriculture will require a holistic, sustained approach incorporating a suite of strategies at multiple spatial scales and time horizons. In the USA of the 1930’s, bold and innovative leadership at high levels of government was needed to enact...

Defining the minimal detectable change in scores on the eight-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale.

PubMed

Muntner, Paul; Joyce, Cara; Holt, Elizabeth; He, Jiang; Morisky, Donald; Webber, Larry S; Krousel-Wood, Marie

2011-05-01

Self-report scales are used to assess medication adherence. Data on how to discriminate change in self-reported adherence over time from random variability are limited. To determine the minimal detectable change for scores on the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). The MMAS-8 was administered twice, using a standard telephone script, with administration separated by 14-22 days, to 210 participants taking antihypertensive medication in the CoSMO (Cohort Study of Medication Adherence among Older Adults). MMAS-8 scores were calculated and participants were grouped into previously defined categories (<6, 6 to <8, and 8 for low, medium, and high adherence). The mean (SD) age of participants was 78.1 (5.8) years, 43.8% were black, and 68.1% were women. Overall, 8.1% (17/210), 16.2% (34/210), and 51.0% (107/210) of participants had low, medium, and high MMAS-8 scores, respectively, at both survey administrations (overall agreement 75.2%; 158/210). The weighted κ statistic was 0.63 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.72). The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.78. The within-person standard error of the mean for change in MMAS-8 scores was 0.81, which equated to a minimal detectable change of 1.98 points. Only 4.3% (9/210) of the participants had a change in MMAS-8 of 2 or more points between survey administrations. Within-person changes in MMAS-8 scores of 2 or more points over time may represent a real change in antihypertensive medication adherence.

Review of forest landscape models: types, methods, development and applications

Treesearch

Weimin Xi; Robert N. Coulson; Andrew G. Birt; Zong-Bo Shang; John D. Waldron; Charles W. Lafon; David M. Cairns; Maria D. Tchakerian; Kier D. Klepzig

2009-01-01

Forest landscape models simulate forest change through time using spatially referenced data across a broad spatial scale (i.e. landscape scale) generally larger than a single forest stand. Spatial interactions between forest stands are a key component of such models. These models can incorporate other spatio-temporal processes such as...

Effects of Time-Extended Marathon Group Experiences on Personality Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Edward R.; Jacobson, Leonard I.

1970-01-01

Pretest and posttest scores on the Edwards and the Marlowe Crowne Social Desirability scales and the 12 scales of the Personal Orientation Inventory were administered four days before and four days after participation. Participants demonstrated a significant decrease in defensiveness and constriction and showed change in the direction of more…

Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

2017-01-01

Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

Time- and polarity-dependent proteomic changes associated with homeostatic scaling at central synapses

PubMed Central

Schanzenbächer, Christoph T

2018-01-01

In homeostatic scaling at central synapses, the depth and breadth of cellular mechanisms that detect the offset from the set-point, detect the duration of the offset and implement a cellular response are not well understood. To understand the time-dependent scaling dynamics we treated cultured rat hippocampal cells with either TTX or bicucculline for 2 hr to induce the process of up- or down-scaling, respectively. During the activity manipulation we metabolically labeled newly synthesized proteins using BONCAT. We identified 168 newly synthesized proteins that exhibited significant changes in expression. To obtain a temporal trajectory of the response, we compared the proteins synthesized within 2 hr or 24 hr of the activity manipulation. Surprisingly, there was little overlap in the significantly regulated newly synthesized proteins identified in the early- and integrated late response datasets. There was, however, overlap in the functional categories that are modulated early and late. These data indicate that within protein function groups, different proteomic choices can be made to effect early and late homeostatic responses that detect the duration and polarity of the activity manipulation. PMID:29447110

Downscaling ocean conditions: Experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, A.; Thompson, K. R.

2013-12-01

The predictability of small-scale ocean variability, given the time history of the associated large-scales, is investigated using a quasi-geostrophic model of two wind-driven gyres separated by an unstable, mid-ocean jet. Motivated by the recent theoretical study of Henshaw et al. (2003), we propose a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large-scale in order to recover the small-scale details of the quasi-geostrophic circulation. The similarity of this method to the spectral nudging of limited area atmospheric models is discussed. Results from the spectral nudging of the quasi-geostrophic model, and an independent multivariate regression-based approach, show that important features of the ocean circulation, including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and the associated pinch-off eddies, can be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scale modes. We next propose a hybrid approach for assimilating both the large-scales and additional observed time series from a limited number of locations that alone are too sparse to recover the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques. The hybrid approach improved significantly the recovery of the small-scales. The results highlight the importance of the coupling between length scales in downscaling applications, and the value of assimilating limited point observations after the large-scales have been set correctly. The application of the hybrid and spectral nudging to practical ocean forecasting, and projecting changes in ocean conditions on climate time scales, is discussed briefly.

Picosecond Phase Grating Spectroscopy of Hemoglobin and Myoglobin: Vibrational Relaxation and Global Protein Motions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genberg, Laura Lynn

The vibrational energy relaxation pathways from optically excited met heme proteins have been studied using the technique of picosecond phase grating spectroscopy. Vibrational energy transfer from the porphyrin ring to the protein backbone leads to extensive delocalization of the energy in the protein matrix which is efficiently transferred to the water interface in less than 20 ps. A slower relaxation process on the nanosecond time scale is also observed. The slow relaxation component is attributed to slow conformational relaxation processes of high potential energy states of the heme proteins. These states are accessed during the high internal energy conditions of the optically excited molecules. In addition, a detailed theoretical analysis of this form of spectroscopy is presented that explains the effects of delayed thermal energy deposition on grating dynamics. The effects of optical pulse shape and duration are also treated. The observable in this technique is not an electronic polarization, but is derived from a response of the material fields to changes in the lattice temperature. Phase grating spectroscopy is also used to observe picosecond tertiary structural changes in both myoglobin and hemoglobin following CO photodissociation. The original interest in this experiment was to ascertain whether local minima are accessed during the highly exothermic conditions following photodissociation, as was observed in the met heme studies. Photodissociation of CO induces a well defined ligated to deoxy structure transition that is important to the functionality of these proteins. Using grating spectroscopy, protein driven density waves are observed on a picosecond time scale. These waves are launched by the tertiary structural changes that occur in both hemoglobin and myoglobin. The exact shape and amplitude of these waves reveal the time scale for the motion as well as the energetics for these protein motions. This result demonstrates that tertiary structure changes are global in nature and occur on an extremely fast time scale. This provides new insight into the biomechanics of conformational changes in proteins and lends support to theoretical models invoking stored strain energy as the driving force for large amplitude correlated motions.

Directional change of fluid particles in two-dimensional turbulence and of football players

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadoch, Benjamin; Bos, Wouter J. T.; Schneider, Kai

2017-06-01

Multiscale directional statistics are investigated in two-dimensional incompressible turbulence. It is shown that the short-time behavior of the mean angle of directional change of fluid particles is linearly dependent on the time lag and that no inertial range behavior is observed in the directional change associated with the enstrophy-cascade range. In simulations of the inverse-cascade range, the directional change shows a power law behavior at inertial range time scales. By comparing the directional change in space-periodic and wall-bounded flow, it is shown that the probability density function of the directional change at long times carries the signature of the confinement. The geometrical origin of this effect is validated by Monte Carlo simulations. The same effect is also observed in the directional statistics computed from the trajectories of football players (soccer players in American English).

Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

2011-12-01

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

Climate-FVS Version 2: Content, users guide, applications, and behavior

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston

2014-01-01

Climate change in the 21st Century is projected to cause widespread changes in forest ecosystems. Climate-FVS is a modification to the Forest Vegetation Simulator designed to take climate change into account when predicting forest dynamics at decadal to century time scales. Individual tree climate viability scores measure the likelihood that the climate at a given...

Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Treesearch

Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

Assessing validity by comparing transition and static measures of dyspnea in patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Smithline, Howard A; Caglar, Selin; Blank, Fidela S J

2010-01-01

This study assessed the convergent validity of 2 dyspnea measures, the transition measure and the change measure, by comparing them with each other in patients admitted to the hospital with acute decompensated heart failure. Static measures of dyspnea were obtained at baseline (pre-static measure) and at time 1 hour and 4 hour (post-static measures). The change measure was calculated as the difference between the pre-static and post-static measures. Transition measures were obtained at time 1 hour and 4 hour. Visual analog scales and Likert scales were used. Both physicians and patients measured the dyspnea independently. A total of 112 patients had complete data sets at time 0 and 1 hour and 86 patients had complete data sets at all 3 time points. Correlations were calculated between the transition measures and static measures (pre-static, post-static, and change measure). Bland-Altman plots were generated and the mean difference and limits of agreement between the transition measures and the change measures were calculated. In general, short-term dyspnea assessment using transition measures and serial static measures can not be used to validate each other in this population of patients being admitted with acute decompensated heart failure. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A large scale membrane-binding protein conformational change that initiates at small length scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandpre, Trevor; Andorf, Matthew; Chakravarthy, Srinivas; Lamb, Robert; Poor, Taylor; Landahl, Eric

2013-03-01

The fusion (F) protein of parainfluenza virus 5 (PIV5) is a membrane-bound, homotrimeric glycoprotein located on the surface of PIV5 viral envelopes. Upon being triggered by the receptor-binding protein (HN), F undergoes a greater than 100Å ATP-independent refolding event. This refolding event results in the insertion of a hydrophobic fusion peptide into the membrane of the target cell, followed by the desolvation and subsequent fusion event as the two membranes are brought together. Isothermal calorimetry and hydrophobic dye incorporation experiments indicate that the soluble construct of the F protein undergoes a conformational rearrangement event at around 55 deg C. We present the results of an initial Time-Resolved Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering (TR-SAXS) study of this large scale, entropically driven conformational change using a temperature jump. Although we the measured radius of gyration of this protein changes on a 110 second timescale, we find that the x-ray scattering intensity at higher angles (corresponding to smaller length scales in the protein) changes nearly an order of magnitude faster. We believe this may be a signature of entropically-driven conformational change. To whom correspondence should be addressed

Chemistry Resolved Kinetic Flow Modeling of TATB Based Explosives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vitello, P A; Fried, L E; Howard, W M

2011-07-21

Detonation waves in insensitive, TATB based explosives are believed to have multi-time scale regimes. The initial burn rate of such explosives has a sub-microsecond time scale. However, significant late-time slow release in energy is believed to occur due to diffusion limited growth of carbon. In the intermediate time scale concentrations of product species likely change from being in equilibrium to being kinetic rate controlled. They use the thermo-chemical code CHEETAH linked to an ALE hydrodynamics code to model detonations. They term their model chemistry resolved kinetic flow as CHEETAH tracks the time dependent concentrations of individual species in the detonationmore » wave and calculates EOS values based on the concentrations. A HE-validation suite of model simulations compared to experiments at ambient, hot, and cold temperatures has been developed. They present here a new rate model and comparison with experimental data.« less

The use of modified scaling factors in the design of high-power, non-linear, transmitting rod-core antennas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Jared Williams; Dvorak, Steven L.; Sternberg, Ben K.

2010-10-01

In this paper, we develop a technique for designing high-power, non-linear, transmitting rod-core antennas by using simple modified scale factors rather than running labor-intensive numerical models. By using modified scale factors, a designer can predict changes in magnetic moment, inductance, core series loss resistance, etc. We define modified scale factors as the case when all physical dimensions of the rod antenna are scaled by p, except for the cross-sectional area of the individual wires or strips that are used to construct the core. This allows one to make measurements on a scaled-down version of the rod antenna using the same core material that will be used in the final antenna design. The modified scale factors were derived from prolate spheroidal analytical expressions for a finite-length rod antenna and were verified with experimental results. The modified scaling factors can only be used if the magnetic flux densities within the two scaled cores are the same. With the magnetic flux density constant, the two scaled cores will operate with the same complex permeability, thus changing the non-linear problem to a quasi-linear problem. We also demonstrate that by holding the number of turns times the drive current constant, while changing the number of turns, the inductance and core series loss resistance change by the number of turns squared. Experimental measurements were made on rod cores made from varying diameters of black oxide, low carbon steel wires and different widths of Metglas foil. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the modified scale factors work even in the presence of eddy currents within the core material.

Global Change: A Biogeochemical Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcelroy, M.

1983-01-01

A research program that is designed to enhance our understanding of the Earth as the support system for life is described. The program change, both natural and anthropogenic, that might affect the habitability of the planet on a time scale roughly equal to that of a human life is studied. On this time scale the atmosphere, biosphere, and upper ocean are treated as a single coupled system. The need for understanding the processes affecting the distribution of essential nutrients--carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, sulfur, and water--within this coupled system is examined. The importance of subtle interactions among chemical, biological, and physical effects is emphasized. The specific objectives are to define the present state of the planetary life-support system; to ellucidate the underlying physical, chemical, and biological controls; and to provide the body of knowledge required to assess changes that might impact the future habitability of the Earth.

A Multi-Scale Distribution Model for Non-Equilibrium Populations Suggests Resource Limitation in an Endangered Rodent

PubMed Central

Bean, William T.; Stafford, Robert; Butterfield, H. Scott; Brashares, Justin S.

2014-01-01

Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define “available” habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining “available” habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and temporal scales relevant to theoretical and applied ecologists. PMID:25237807

Galaxy Zoo: evidence for diverse star formation histories through the green valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smethurst, R. J.; Lintott, C. J.; Simmons, B. D.; Schawinski, K.; Marshall, P. J.; Bamford, S.; Fortson, L.; Kaviraj, S.; Masters, K. L.; Melvin, T.; Nichol, R. C.; Skibba, R. A.; Willett, K. W.

2015-06-01

Does galaxy evolution proceed through the green valley via multiple pathways or as a single population? Motivated by recent results highlighting radically different evolutionary pathways between early- and late-type galaxies, we present results from a simple Bayesian approach to this problem wherein we model the star formation history (SFH) of a galaxy with two parameters, [t, τ] and compare the predicted and observed optical and near-ultraviolet colours. We use a novel method to investigate the morphological differences between the most probable SFHs for both disc-like and smooth-like populations of galaxies, by using a sample of 126 316 galaxies (0.01 < z < 0.25) with probabilistic estimates of morphology from Galaxy Zoo. We find a clear difference between the quenching time-scales preferred by smooth- and disc-like galaxies, with three possible routes through the green valley dominated by smooth- (rapid time-scales, attributed to major mergers), intermediate- (intermediate time-scales, attributed to minor mergers and galaxy interactions) and disc-like (slow time-scales, attributed to secular evolution) galaxies. We hypothesize that morphological changes occur in systems which have undergone quenching with an exponential time-scale τ < 1.5 Gyr, in order for the evolution of galaxies in the green valley to match the ratio of smooth to disc galaxies observed in the red sequence. These rapid time-scales are instrumental in the formation of the red sequence at earlier times; however, we find that galaxies currently passing through the green valley typically do so at intermediate time-scales.†

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markonis, Y.; Batelis, S. C.; Dimakos, Y.; Moschou, E.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2017-10-01

Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940-2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years; (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method; and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years, relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.

Taking care of business in a flash: constraining the time-scale for low-mass satellite quenching with ELVIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fillingham, Sean P.; Cooper, Michael C.; Wheeler, Coral; Garrison-Kimmel, Shea; Boylan-Kolchin, Michael; Bullock, James S.

2015-12-01

The vast majority of dwarf satellites orbiting the Milky Way and M31 are quenched, while comparable galaxies in the field are gas rich and star forming. Assuming that this dichotomy is driven by environmental quenching, we use the Exploring the Local Volume in Simulations (ELVIS) suite of N-body simulations to constrain the characteristic time-scale upon which satellites must quench following infall into the virial volumes of their hosts. The high satellite quenched fraction observed in the Local Group demands an extremely short quenching time-scale (˜2 Gyr) for dwarf satellites in the mass range M⋆ ˜ 106-108 M⊙. This quenching time-scale is significantly shorter than that required to explain the quenched fraction of more massive satellites (˜8 Gyr), both in the Local Group and in more massive host haloes, suggesting a dramatic change in the dominant satellite quenching mechanism at M⋆ ≲ 108 M⊙. Combining our work with the results of complementary analyses in the literature, we conclude that the suppression of star formation in massive satellites (M⋆ ˜ 108-1011 M⊙) is broadly consistent with being driven by starvation, such that the satellite quenching time-scale corresponds to the cold gas depletion time. Below a critical stellar mass scale of ˜108 M⊙, however, the required quenching times are much shorter than the expected cold gas depletion times. Instead, quenching must act on a time-scale comparable to the dynamical time of the host halo. We posit that ram-pressure stripping can naturally explain this behaviour, with the critical mass (of M⋆ ˜ 108 M⊙) corresponding to haloes with gravitational restoring forces that are too weak to overcome the drag force encountered when moving through an extended, hot circumgalactic medium.

Convergence and divergence in a long-term old-field succession: the importance of spatial scale and species abundance.

PubMed

Li, Shao-Peng; Cadotte, Marc W; Meiners, Scott J; Pu, Zhichao; Fukami, Tadashi; Jiang, Lin

2016-09-01

Whether plant communities in a given region converge towards a particular stable state during succession has long been debated, but rarely tested at a sufficiently long time scale. By analysing a 50-year continuous study of post-agricultural secondary succession in New Jersey, USA, we show that the extent of community convergence varies with the spatial scale and species abundance classes. At the larger field scale, abundance-based dissimilarities among communities decreased over time, indicating convergence of dominant species, whereas incidence-based dissimilarities showed little temporal tend, indicating no sign of convergence. In contrast, plots within each field diverged in both species composition and abundance. Abundance-based successional rates decreased over time, whereas rare species and herbaceous plants showed little change in temporal turnover rates. Initial abandonment conditions only influenced community structure early in succession. Overall, our findings provide strong evidence for scale and abundance dependence of stochastic and deterministic processes over old-field succession. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

[Sensitivity to change].

PubMed

Igl, W; Zwingmann, C; Faller, H

2005-04-01

In rehabilitation research patient questionnaires are widely used for evaluative purposes, i. e. to measure improvements or deteriorations over time. This is only possible if the questionnaires applied appropriately reflect "true" change over time, i. e. they have to be sensitive to change. The aim of this paper is to point out the importance of the "sensitivity to change" concept for evaluative assessment tools and evaluative studies, respectively, considering quality of life research as an example. Various qualitative aspects, e. g. scaling of response options of assessment tools, are covered as well as quantitative methods, i. e. study designs and indices. Furthermore, recommendations for interpretation are given.

Evolution of Controllability in Interbank Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delpini, Danilo; Battiston, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Pammolli, Fabio; Caldarelli, Guido

2013-04-01

The Statistical Physics of Complex Networks has recently provided new theoretical tools for policy makers. Here we extend the notion of network controllability to detect the financial institutions, i.e. the drivers, that are most crucial to the functioning of an interbank market. The system we investigate is a paradigmatic case study for complex networks since it undergoes dramatic structural changes over time and links among nodes can be observed at several time scales. We find a scale-free decay of the fraction of drivers with increasing time resolution, implying that policies have to be adjusted to the time scales in order to be effective. Moreover, drivers are often not the most highly connected ``hub'' institutions, nor the largest lenders, contrary to the results of other studies. Our findings contribute quantitative indicators which can support regulators in developing more effective supervision and intervention policies.

Ultrafast carrier dynamics in the large-magnetoresistance material WTe 2

DOE PAGES

Dai, Y. M.; Bowlan, J.; Li, H.; ...

2015-10-07

In this study, ultrafast optical pump-probe spectroscopy is used to track carrier dynamics in the large-magnetoresistance material WTe 2. Our experiments reveal a fast relaxation process occurring on a subpicosecond time scale that is caused by electron-phonon thermalization, allowing us to extract the electron-phonon coupling constant. An additional slower relaxation process, occurring on a time scale of ~5–15 ps, is attributed to phonon-assisted electron-hole recombination. As the temperature decreases from 300 K, the time scale governing this process increases due to the reduction of the phonon population. However, below ~50 K, an unusual decrease of the recombination time sets in,more » most likely due to a change in the electronic structure that has been linked to the large magnetoresistance observed in this material.« less

Environmental stratification framework and water-quality monitoring design strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2008-01-01

Mauritania anticipates an increase in mining activities throughout the country and into the foreseeable future. Because mining-induced changes in the landscape are likely to affect their limited ground-water resources and sensitive aquatic ecosystems, a water-quality assessment program was designed for Mauritania that is based on a nationally consistent environmental stratification framework. The primary objectives of this program are to ensure that the environmental monitoring systems can quantify near real-time changes in surface-water chemistry at a local scale, and quantify intermediate- to long-term changes in groundwater and aquatic ecosystems over multiple scales.

Modification of the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) Scale for use in bipolar illness (BP): the CGI-BP.

PubMed

Spearing, M K; Post, R M; Leverich, G S; Brandt, D; Nolen, W

1997-12-05

The Clinical Global Impressions Scale (CGI) was modified specifically for use in assessing global illness severity and change in patients with bipolar disorder. Criticisms of the original CGI were addressed by correcting inconsistencies in scaling, identifying time frames for comparison, clarifying definitions of illness severity and change, and separating out assessment of treatment side effects from illness improvement during treatment. A Detailed User's Guide was developed to train clinicians in the use of the new CGI-Bipolar Version (CGI-BP) for rating severity of manic and depressive episodes and the degree of change from the immediately preceding phase and from the worst phase of illness. The revised scale and manual provide a focused set of instructions to facilitate the reliability of these ratings of mania, depression, and overall bipolar illness during treatment of an acute episode or in longer-term illness prophylaxis. Interrater reliability of the scale was demonstrated in preliminary analyses. Thus, the modified CGI-BP is anticipated to be more useful than the original CGI in studies of bipolar disorder.

Coping strategies among patients with newly diagnosed amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Jakobsson Larsson, Birgitta; Nordin, Karin; Askmark, Håkan; Nygren, Ingela

2014-11-01

To prospectively identify different coping strategies among newly diagnosed amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients and whether they change over time and to determine whether physical function, psychological well-being, age and gender correlated with the use of different coping strategies. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a fatal disease with impact on both physical function and psychological well-being. Different coping strategies are used to manage symptoms and disease progression, but knowledge about coping in newly diagnosed amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients is scarce. This was a prospective study with a longitudinal and descriptive design. A total of 33 patients were included and evaluation was made at two time points, one to three months and six months after diagnosis. Patients were asked to complete the Motor Neuron Disease Coping Scale and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Physical function was estimated using the revised Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale. The most commonly used strategies were support and independence. Avoidance/venting and information seeking were seldom used at both time points. The use of information seeking decreased between the two time points. Men did not differ from women, but patients ≤64 years used positive action more often than older patients. Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale was positively correlated with positive action at time point 1, but not at time point 2. Patients' psychological well-being was correlated with the use of different coping strategies. Support and independence were the most used coping strategies, and the use of different strategies changed over time. Psychological well-being was correlated with different coping strategies in newly diagnosed amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients. The knowledge about coping strategies in early stage of the disease may help the nurses to improve and develop the care and support for these patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Kinetic energy budgets during the life cycle of intense convective activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1978-01-01

Synoptic-scale data at three- and six-hour intervals are employed to study the relationship between changing kinetic energy variables and the life cycles of two severe squall lines. The kinetic energy budgets indicate a high degree of kinetic energy generation, especially pronounced near the jet-stream level. Energy losses in the storm environment are due to the transfer of kinetic energy from grid to subgrid scales of motion; large-scale upward vertical motion carries aloft the kinetic energy generated by storm activity at lower levels. In general, the time of maximum storm intensity is also the time of maximum energy conversion and transport.

Variability of Disk Emission in Pre-Main Sequence and Related Stars. II. Variability in the Gas and Dust Emission of the Herbig Fe Star SAO 206462

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sitko, Michael L.; Day, Amanda N.; Kimes, Robin L.; Beerman, Lori C.; Martus, Cameron; Lynch, David K.; Russell, Ray W.; Grady, Carol A.; Schneider, Glenn; Lisse, Carey M.;

Relative Time-scale for Channeling Events Within Chaotic Terrains, Margaritifer Sinus, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janke, D.

1985-01-01

A relative time scale for ordering channel and chaos forming events was constructed for areas within the Margaritifer Sinus region of Mars. Transection and superposition relationships of channels, chaotic terrain, and the surfaces surrounding them were used to create the relative time scale; crater density studies were not used. Channels and chaos in contact with one another were treated as systems. These systems were in turn treated both separately (in order to understand internal relationships) and as members of the suite of Martian erosional forms (in order to produce a combined, master time scale). Channeling events associated with chaotic terrain development occurred over an extended geomorphic period. The channels can be divided into three convenient groups: those that pre-date intercrater plains development post-plains, pre-chasma systems; and those associated with the development of the Vallis Marineris chasmata. No correlations with cyclic climatic changes, major geologic events in other regions on Mars, or triggering phenomena (for example, specific impact events) were found.

Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

PubMed

Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

2015-09-01

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Omori's law in the Internet traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, S.; Suzuki, N.

2003-03-01

The Internet is a complex system, whose temporal behavior is highly nonstationary and exhibits sudden drastic changes regarded as main shocks or catastrophes. Here, analyzing a set of time series data of round-trip time measured in echo experiment with the Ping Command, the property of "aftershocks" (i.e., catastrophes of smaller scales) after a main shock is studied. It is found that the aftershocks obey Omori's law. Thus, the Internet shares with earthquakes and financial-market crashes a common scale-invariant feature in the temporal patterns of aftershocks.

Reverberance of AN Existing Hall in Relation to both Subsequent Reverberation Time and Spl

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HASE, S.; TAKATSU, A.; SATO, S.; SAKAI, H.; ANDO, Y.

2000-04-01

The reverberance of sound fields was evaluated by psychological tests in a multi-purpose hall with 400 seats. Both the subsequent reverberation time (Tsub) and sound pressure level (SPL) were changed, and the scale values of reverberance for both the music and speech signals were obtained by using the paired comparison method. This study found that Tsuband SPL have an independent influence on the scale value of reverberance. The reverberance increases when both Tsuband SPL are increased.

Resolving discrete pulsar spin-down states with current and future instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, B.; Stappers, B. W.; Weltevrede, P.

2018-04-01

An understanding of pulsar timing noise offers the potential to improve the timing precision of a large number of pulsars as well as facilitating our understanding of pulsar magnetospheres. For some sources, timing noise is attributable to a pulsar switching between two different spin-down rates (\\dot{ν }). Such transitions may be common but difficult to resolve using current techniques. In this work, we use simulations of \\dot{ν }-variable pulsars to investigate the likelihood of resolving individual \\dot{ν } transitions. We inject step changes in the value of \\dot{ν } with a wide range of amplitudes and switching time-scales. We then attempt to redetect these transitions using standard pulsar timing techniques. The pulse arrival-time precision and the observing cadence are varied. Limits on \\dot{ν } detectability based on the effects such transitions have on the timing residuals are derived. With the typical cadences and timing precision of current timing programmes, we find that we are insensitive to a large region of Δ \\dot{ν } parameter space that encompasses small, short time-scale switches. We find, where the rotation and emission states are correlated, that using changes to the pulse shape to estimate \\dot{ν } transition epochs can improve detectability in certain scenarios. The effects of cadence on Δ \\dot{ν } detectability are discussed, and we make comparisons with a known population of intermittent and mode-switching pulsars. We conclude that for short time-scale, small switches, cadence should not be compromised when new generations of ultra-sensitive radio telescopes are online.

Associations among pain catastrophizing, muscle strength, and physical performance after total knee and hip arthroplasty

PubMed Central

Hayashi, Kazuhiro; Kako, Masato; Suzuki, Kentaro; Hattori, Keiko; Fukuyasu, Saori; Sato, Koji; Kadono, Izumi; Sakai, Tadahiro; Hasegawa, Yukiharu; Nishida, Yoshihiro

2017-01-01

AIM To investigate whether reductions in pain catastrophizing associated with physical performance in the early period after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA). METHODS The study group of 46 participants underwent TKA or THA. The participants were evaluated within 7 d before the operation and at 14 d afterwards. Physical performance was measured by the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, and 10-m gait time was measured at comfortable and maximum speeds. They rated their knee or hip pain using a visual analog scale (VAS) for daily life activities. Psychological characteristics were measured by the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Physical characteristics were measured by isometric muscle strength of knee extensors and hip abductors on the operated side. The variables of percent changes between pre- and post-operation were calculated by dividing post-operation score by pre-operation score. RESULTS Postoperative VAS and PCS were better than preoperative for both TKA and THA. Postoperative physical performance and muscle strength were poorer than preoperative for both TKA and THA. The percent change in physical performance showed no correlation with preoperative variables. In TKA patients, the percent change of PCS showed correlation with percent change of TUG (P = 0.016), 10-m gait time at comfortable speeds (P = 0.003), and 10-m gait time at maximum speeds (P = 0.042). The percent change of muscle strength showed partial correlation with physical performances. The percent change of VAS showed no correlation with physical performances. On the other hand, in THA patients, the percent change of hip abductor strength showed correlation with percent change of TUG (P = 0.047), 10-m gait time at comfortable speeds (P = 0.001), and 10-m gait time at maximum speeds (P = 0.021). The percent change of knee extensor strength showed partial correlation with physical performances. The percent change of VAS and PCS showed no correlation with physical performances. CONCLUSION Changes in pain catastrophizing significantly associated with changes in physical performance in the early period after TKA. It contributes to future postoperative rehabilitation of arthroplasty. PMID:28473962

Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Direct Runoff Using Improved Composite CN Method in a Large Urban Area.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Shi, Tuo; Zong, Min; Walter, M Todd

2018-04-17

Urbanization is one of the most widespread anthropogenic activities, which brings a range of physical and biochemical changes to hydrological system and processes. Increasing direct runoff caused by land use change has become a major challenge for urban ecological security. Reliable prediction of the quantity and rate of surface runoff is an inherently difficult and time-consuming task for large ungauged urban areas. In this study, we combined Geographic Information System and remote sensing technology with an improved Soil Conservation Service curve number model to evaluate the effects of land use change on direct runoff volume of the four-ring area in Shenyang, China, and analyzed trends of direct runoff at different scales. Through analyzing trends of direct runoff from 1984 to 2015 at different scales, we explored how urbanization and other potential factors affect direct runoff changes. Total direct runoff volume increased over time, and trends varied from the inner urban area to suburban area. Zones 1 and 2 had a tendency toward decreasing direct runoff volume and risks, while Zones 3 and 4 showed gradual increases at both regional and pixel scales. The most important influence on direct runoff change was urban surface change caused by urbanization. This study presents a framework for identifying hotspots of runoff increase, which can provide important guidance to urban managers in future green infrastructure planning, in the hopes of improving the security of urban water ecological patterns.

Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Direct Runoff Using Improved Composite CN Method in a Large Urban Area

PubMed Central

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Shi, Tuo; Zong, Min; Walter, M. Todd

2018-01-01

Urbanization is one of the most widespread anthropogenic activities, which brings a range of physical and biochemical changes to hydrological system and processes. Increasing direct runoff caused by land use change has become a major challenge for urban ecological security. Reliable prediction of the quantity and rate of surface runoff is an inherently difficult and time-consuming task for large ungauged urban areas. In this study, we combined Geographic Information System and remote sensing technology with an improved Soil Conservation Service curve number model to evaluate the effects of land use change on direct runoff volume of the four-ring area in Shenyang, China, and analyzed trends of direct runoff at different scales. Through analyzing trends of direct runoff from 1984 to 2015 at different scales, we explored how urbanization and other potential factors affect direct runoff changes. Total direct runoff volume increased over time, and trends varied from the inner urban area to suburban area. Zones 1 and 2 had a tendency toward decreasing direct runoff volume and risks, while Zones 3 and 4 showed gradual increases at both regional and pixel scales. The most important influence on direct runoff change was urban surface change caused by urbanization. This study presents a framework for identifying hotspots of runoff increase, which can provide important guidance to urban managers in future green infrastructure planning, in the hopes of improving the security of urban water ecological patterns. PMID:29673182

Scaling in Free-Swimming Fish and Implications for Measuring Size-at-Time in the Wild

PubMed Central

Broell, Franziska; Taggart, Christopher T.

2015-01-01

This study was motivated by the need to measure size-at-age, and thus growth rate, in fish in the wild. We postulated that this could be achieved using accelerometer tags based first on early isometric scaling models that hypothesize that similar animals should move at the same speed with a stroke frequency that scales with length-1, and second on observations that the speed of primarily air-breathing free-swimming animals, presumably swimming ‘efficiently’, is independent of size, confirming that stroke frequency scales as length-1. However, such scaling relations between size and swimming parameters for fish remain mostly theoretical. Based on free-swimming saithe and sturgeon tagged with accelerometers, we introduce a species-specific scaling relationship between dominant tail beat frequency (TBF) and fork length. Dominant TBF was proportional to length-1 (r2 = 0.73, n = 40), and estimated swimming speed within species was independent of length. Similar scaling relations accrued in relation to body mass-0.29. We demonstrate that the dominant TBF can be used to estimate size-at-time and that accelerometer tags with onboard processing may be able to provide size-at-time estimates among free-swimming fish and thus the estimation of growth rate (change in size-at-time) in the wild. PMID:26673777

Engineering-Scale Demonstration of DuraLith and Ceramicrete Waste Forms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josephson, Gary B.; Westsik, Joseph H.; Pires, Richard P.

2011-09-23

To support the selection of a waste form for the liquid secondary wastes from the Hanford Waste Immobilization and Treatment Plant, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) has initiated secondary waste form testing on four candidate waste forms. Two of the candidate waste forms have not been developed to scale as the more mature waste forms. This work describes engineering-scale demonstrations conducted on Ceramicrete and DuraLith candidate waste forms. Both candidate waste forms were successfully demonstrated at an engineering scale. A preliminary conceptual design could be prepared for full-scale production of the candidate waste forms. However, both waste forms are stillmore » too immature to support a detailed design. Formulations for each candidate waste form need to be developed so that the material has a longer working time after mixing the liquid and solid constituents together. Formulations optimized based on previous lab studies did not have sufficient working time to support large-scale testing. The engineering-scale testing was successfully completed using modified formulations. Further lab development and parametric studies are needed to optimize formulations with adequate working time and assess the effects of changes in raw materials and process parameters on the final product performance. Studies on effects of mixing intensity on the initial set time of the waste forms are also needed.« less

Monitoring Local Changes in Granite Rock Under Biaxial Test: A Spatiotemporal Imaging Application With Diffuse Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Fan; Ren, Yaqiong; Zhou, Yongsheng; Larose, Eric; Baillet, Laurent

2018-03-01

Diffuse acoustic or seismic waves are highly sensitive to detect changes of mechanical properties in heterogeneous geological materials. In particular, thanks to acoustoelasticity, we can quantify stress changes by tracking acoustic or seismic relative velocity changes in the material at test. In this paper, we report on a small-scale laboratory application of an innovative time-lapse tomography technique named Locadiff to image spatiotemporal mechanical changes on a granite sample under biaxial loading, using diffuse waves at ultrasonic frequencies (300 kHz to 900 kHz). We demonstrate the ability of the method to image reversible stress evolution and deformation process, together with the development of reversible and irreversible localized microdamage in the specimen at an early stage. Using full-field infrared thermography, we visualize stress-induced temperature changes and validate stress images obtained from diffuse ultrasound. We demonstrate that the inversion with a good resolution can be achieved with only a limited number of receivers distributed around a single source, all located at the free surface of the specimen. This small-scale experiment is a proof of concept for frictional earthquake-like failure (e.g., stick-slip) research at laboratory scale as well as large-scale seismic applications, potentially including active fault monitoring.

Accounting for interannual variability: A comparison of options for water resources climate change impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2011-04-01

Empirical scaling approaches for constructing rainfall scenarios from general circulation model (GCM) simulations are commonly used in water resources climate change impact assessments. However, these approaches have a number of limitations, not the least of which is that they cannot account for changes in variability or persistence at annual and longer time scales. Bias correction of GCM rainfall projections offers an attractive alternative to scaling methods as it has similar advantages to scaling in that it is computationally simple, can consider multiple GCM outputs, and can be easily applied to different regions or climatic regimes. In addition, it also allows for interannual variability to evolve according to the GCM simulations, which provides additional scenarios for risk assessments. This paper compares two scaling and four bias correction approaches for estimating changes in future rainfall over Australia and for a case study for water supply from the Warragamba catchment, located near Sydney, Australia. A validation of the various rainfall estimation procedures is conducted on the basis of the latter half of the observational rainfall record. It was found that the method leading to the lowest prediction errors varies depending on the rainfall statistic of interest. The flexibility of bias correction approaches in matching rainfall parameters at different frequencies is demonstrated. The results also indicate that for Australia, the scaling approaches lead to smaller estimates of uncertainty associated with changes to interannual variability for the period 2070-2099 compared to the bias correction approaches. These changes are also highlighted using the case study for the Warragamba Dam catchment.

Insect Infestations Linked to Shifts in Microclimate: Important Climate Change Implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Classen, Aimee T; Hart, Stephen C; Whitham, Thomas G

Changes in vegetation due to drought-influenced herbivory may influence microclimate in ecosystems. In combination with studies of insect resistant and susceptible trees, we used long-term herbivore removal experiments with two herbivores of pinon (Pinus edulis Endelm.) to test the general hypothesis that herbivore alteration of plant architecture affects soil microclimate, a major driver of ecosystem-level processes. The pinon needle scale (Matsucoccus acalyptus, Herbert) attacks needles of juvenile trees causing them to develop an open crown. In contrast, the stem-boring moth (Dioryctria albovittella Hulst.) kills the terminal shoots of mature trees, causing the crown to develop a dense form. Our studiesmore » focused on how the microclimate effects of these architectural changes are likely to accumulate over time. Three patterns emerged: (1) scale herbivory reduced leaf area index (LAI) of susceptible trees by 39%, whereas moths had no effect on LAI; (2) scale herbivory increased soil moisture and temperature beneath susceptible trees by 35 and 26%, respectively, whereas moths had no effect; and (3) scale and moth herbivory decreased crown interception of precipitation by 51 and 29%, respectively. From these results, we conclude: (1) the magnitude of scale effects on soil moisture and temperature is large, similar to global change scenarios, and sufficient to drive changes in ecosystem processes. (2) The larger sizes of moth-susceptible trees apparently buffered them from most microclimate effects of herbivory, despite marked changes in crown architecture. (3) The phenotypic expression of susceptibility or resistance to scale insects extends beyond plant-herbivore interactions to the physical environment.« less

Multiscale spatial and small-scale temporal variation in the composition of Riverine fish communities.

PubMed

Growns, Ivor; Astles, Karen; Gehrke, Peter

2006-03-01

We studied the multiscale (sites, river reaches and rivers) and short-term temporal (monthly) variability in a freshwater fish assemblage. We found that small-scale spatial variation and short-term temporal variability significantly influenced fish community structure in the Macquarie and Namoi Rivers. However, larger scale spatial differences between rivers were the largest source of variation in the data. The interaction between temporal change and spatial variation in fish community structure, whilst statistically significant, was smaller than the variation between rivers. This suggests that although the fish communities within each river changed between sampling occasions, the underlying differences between rivers were maintained. In contrast, the strongest interaction between temporal and spatial effects occurred at the smallest spatial scale, at the level of individual sites. This means whilst the composition of the fish assemblage at a given site may fluctuate, the magnitude of these changes is unlikely to affect larger scale differences between reaches within rivers or between rivers. These results suggest that sampling at any time within a single season will be sufficient to show spatial differences that occur over large spatial scales, such as comparisons between rivers or between biogeographical regions.

Urbanization effects on climatic changes in 24 particular timings of the seasonal cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng; Ren, Guoyu; Zhou, Yaqing

2016-05-01

Changes in the timing of the seasonal cycle are important to natural ecosystems and human society, particularly agronomic activity. Urbanization effects (UEs) on surface air temperature changes at the local scale can be strong. Quantifying the observed changes in the timing of the seasonal cycle associated with UEs or large-scale background climatic warming is beneficial for the detection and attribution of regional climate change and for effective human adaptation, particularly in China, where rapid urbanization and industrialization are occurring. In this study, long-term changes in 24 particular timings of seasonal cycle, known as the Twenty-four Solar Terms (24STs), in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River in China are analyzed on the basis of homogenized daily temperature data over 1961-2010. UEs on these changes are further assessed by using a rural-station network selected from 2419 meteorological stations. In terms of area mean, half of the 24STs have significantly warmed, and UEs have contributed to 0.07-0.14 °C/decade or 25.7-64.0 % of the overall warming. The climatic solar terms from mid-February to early May (September and early October) have significantly advanced (delayed) by 5-17 days (approximately 5 days) over the last 50 years; 2-4 (2-3) of these days are attributed to UEs. The contribution of urbanization to the advancing or delaying trends is 21.7-69.5 %. The implications of these quantitative results differ for farmers, urban residents, and migrant workers in cities.

Spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics in the Northeastern United States from the Colonial Era through the Industrial Revolution (1600-1920)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witherell, B. B.; Bain, D. J.; Salant, N.; Aloysius, N. R.

2009-12-01

Humans impact the hydrologic cycle at local, regional and global scales. Understanding how spatial patterns of human water use and hydrologic impact have changed over time is important to future water management in an era of increasing water constraints and globalization of high water-use resources. This study investigates spatial dependence and spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics for the Northeastern United States from 1600 to 1920 through the use of spatial statistical techniques. Several relevant hydro-social metrics, including water residence time, surface water storage (natural and human engineered) and per capita water availability, are analyzed. This study covers a region and period of time that saw significant population growth, landscape change, and industrial growth. These changes had important impacts on water availability. Although some changes such as the elimination of beavers, and the resulting loss of beaver ponds on low-order streams, are felt at a regional scale, preliminary analysis indicates that humans responded to water constraints by acting locally (e.g., mill ponds for water power and water supply reservoirs for public health). This 320-year historical analysis of spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics provides unique insight into long-term changes in coupled human-water systems.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

Development of a broadband reflectivity diagnostic for laser driven shock compression experiments

DOE PAGES

Ali, S. J.; Bolme, C. A.; Collins, G. W.; ...

2015-04-16

Here, a normal-incidence visible and near-infrared shock wave optical reflectivity diagnostic was constructed to investigate changes in the optical properties of materials under dynamic laser compression. Documenting wavelength- and time-dependent changes in the optical properties of laser-shock compressed samples has been difficult, primarily due to the small sample sizes and short time scales involved, but we succeeded in doing so by broadening a series of time delayed 800-nm pulses from an ultrafast Ti:sapphire laser to generate high-intensity broadband light at nanosecond time scales. This diagnostic was demonstrated over the wavelength range 450–1150 nm with up to 16 time displaced spectramore » during a single shock experiment. Simultaneous off-normal incidence velocity interferometry (velocity interferometer system for any reflector) characterized the sample under laser-compression and also provided an independent reflectivity measurement at 532 nm wavelength. The shock-driven semiconductor-to-metallic transition in germanium was documented by the way of reflectivity measurements with 0.5 ns time resolution and a wavelength resolution of 10 nm.« less

Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushio, Masayuki; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Masuda, Reiji; Deyle, Ethan R.; Ye, Hao; Chang, Chun-Wei; Sugihara, George; Kondoh, Michio

2018-02-01

Ecological theory suggests that large-scale patterns such as community stability can be influenced by changes in interspecific interactions that arise from the behavioural and/or physiological responses of individual species varying over time. Although this theory has experimental support, evidence from natural ecosystems is lacking owing to the challenges of tracking rapid changes in interspecific interactions (known to occur on timescales much shorter than a generation time) and then identifying the effect of such changes on large-scale community dynamics. Here, using tools for analysing nonlinear time series and a 12-year-long dataset of fortnightly collected observations on a natural marine fish community in Maizuru Bay, Japan, we show that short-term changes in interaction networks influence overall community dynamics. Among the 15 dominant species, we identify 14 interspecific interactions to construct a dynamic interaction network. We show that the strengths, and even types, of interactions change with time; we also develop a time-varying stability measure based on local Lyapunov stability for attractor dynamics in non-equilibrium nonlinear systems. We use this dynamic stability measure to examine the link between the time-varying interaction network and community stability. We find seasonal patterns in dynamic stability for this fish community that broadly support expectations of current ecological theory. Specifically, the dominance of weak interactions and higher species diversity during summer months are associated with higher dynamic stability and smaller population fluctuations. We suggest that interspecific interactions, community network structure and community stability are dynamic properties, and that linking fluctuating interaction networks to community-level dynamic properties is key to understanding the maintenance of ecological communities in nature.

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

Atomoxetine Increased Effect over Time in Adults with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Treated for up to 6 Months: Pooled Analysis of Two Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Wietecha, Linda A; Clemow, David B; Buchanan, Andrew S; Young, Joel L; Sarkis, Elias H; Findling, Robert L

2016-07-01

Changes in the magnitude of efficacy throughout 26 weeks of atomoxetine treatment, along with impact of dosing, were evaluated in adults with ADHD from two randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies. Pooled placebo (n = 485) and atomoxetine (n = 518) patients, dosed 25, 40, 60, 80 (target dose), or 100 mg daily, were assessed. Change from baseline in Conners' Adult ADHD Rating Scale-Investigator Rated Scale: Screening Version (CAARS) total ADHD symptoms score and Adult ADHD Investigator Symptom Rating Scale (AISRS) total score were analyzed using mixed-model repeated measures, with least squares mean change, effect size, and response rate calculated at 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 16, 22, and 26 weeks. Decreases on CAARS for atomoxetine- versus placebo-treated patients were consistently statistically significantly greater at every time point beginning at one week (P ≤ 0.006, 0.28 effect size). By 4 weeks, comparison was -13.19 compared with -8.84 (P < 0.0001, 0.45 effect size). By 26 weeks, mean change was -15.42 versus -9.71 (0.52 effect size); increase in effect size over time was most pronounced in the 80 mg group (0.82 effect size). AISRS demonstrated similar results. Atomoxetine response rate (CAARS 50% decrease) continued to increase throughout 26 weeks. Atomoxetine treatment in adults with ADHD was associated with small effect sizes after 4 weeks and moderate effect sizes by 6 months of treatment. The data support increased effect size and response rate over time during longer-term treatment at target dose. © 2016 Eli Lilly and Company. CNS Neuroscience & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Synchrotron-based transmission x-ray microscopy for improved extraction in shale during hydraulic fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrew M.; Jew, Adam D.; Joe-Wong, Claresta; Maher, Kate M.; Liu, Yijin; Brown, Gordon E.; Bargar, John

2015-09-01

Engineering topics which span a range of length and time scales present a unique challenge to researchers. Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of oil shales is one of these challenges and provides an opportunity to use multiple research tools to thoroughly investigate a topic. Currently, the extraction efficiency from the shale is low but can be improved by carefully studying the processes at the micro- and nano-scale. Fracking fluid induces chemical changes in the shale which can have significant effects on the microstructure morphology, permeability, and chemical composition. These phenomena occur at different length and time scales which require different instrumentation to properly study. Using synchrotron-based techniques such as fluorescence tomography provide high sensitivity elemental mapping and an in situ micro-tomography system records morphological changes with time. In addition, the transmission X-ray microscope (TXM) at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource (SSRL) beamline 6-2 is utilized to collect a nano-scale three-dimensional representation of the sample morphology with elemental and chemical sensitivity. We present the study of a simplified model system, in which pyrite and quartz particles are mixed and exposed to oxidizing solution, to establish the basic understanding of the more complex geology-relevant oxidation reaction. The spatial distribution of the production of the oxidation reaction, ferrihydrite, is retrieved via full-field XANES tomography showing the reaction pathway. Further correlation between the high resolution TXM data and the high sensitivity micro-probe data provides insight into potential morphology changes which can decrease permeability and limit hydrocarbon recovery.

Evidence Integration in Natural Acoustic Textures during Active and Passive Listening

PubMed Central

Rupp, Andre; Celikel, Tansu

2018-01-01

Abstract Many natural sounds can be well described on a statistical level, for example, wind, rain, or applause. Even though the spectro-temporal profile of these acoustic textures is highly dynamic, changes in their statistics are indicative of relevant changes in the environment. Here, we investigated the neural representation of change detection in natural textures in humans, and specifically addressed whether active task engagement is required for the neural representation of this change in statistics. Subjects listened to natural textures whose spectro-temporal statistics were modified at variable times by a variable amount. Subjects were instructed to either report the detection of changes (active) or to passively listen to the stimuli. A subset of passive subjects had performed the active task before (passive-aware vs passive-naive). Psychophysically, longer exposure to pre-change statistics was correlated with faster reaction times and better discrimination performance. EEG recordings revealed that the build-up rate and size of parieto-occipital (PO) potentials reflected change size and change time. Reduced effects were observed in the passive conditions. While P2 responses were comparable across conditions, slope and height of PO potentials scaled with task involvement. Neural source localization identified a parietal source as the main contributor of change-specific potentials, in addition to more limited contributions from auditory and frontal sources. In summary, the detection of statistical changes in natural acoustic textures is predominantly reflected in parietal locations both on the skull and source level. The scaling in magnitude across different levels of task involvement suggests a context-dependent degree of evidence integration. PMID:29662943

Evidence Integration in Natural Acoustic Textures during Active and Passive Listening.

PubMed

Górska, Urszula; Rupp, Andre; Boubenec, Yves; Celikel, Tansu; Englitz, Bernhard

2018-01-01

Many natural sounds can be well described on a statistical level, for example, wind, rain, or applause. Even though the spectro-temporal profile of these acoustic textures is highly dynamic, changes in their statistics are indicative of relevant changes in the environment. Here, we investigated the neural representation of change detection in natural textures in humans, and specifically addressed whether active task engagement is required for the neural representation of this change in statistics. Subjects listened to natural textures whose spectro-temporal statistics were modified at variable times by a variable amount. Subjects were instructed to either report the detection of changes (active) or to passively listen to the stimuli. A subset of passive subjects had performed the active task before (passive-aware vs passive-naive). Psychophysically, longer exposure to pre-change statistics was correlated with faster reaction times and better discrimination performance. EEG recordings revealed that the build-up rate and size of parieto-occipital (PO) potentials reflected change size and change time. Reduced effects were observed in the passive conditions. While P2 responses were comparable across conditions, slope and height of PO potentials scaled with task involvement. Neural source localization identified a parietal source as the main contributor of change-specific potentials, in addition to more limited contributions from auditory and frontal sources. In summary, the detection of statistical changes in natural acoustic textures is predominantly reflected in parietal locations both on the skull and source level. The scaling in magnitude across different levels of task involvement suggests a context-dependent degree of evidence integration.

The Key Factors Analysis of Palisades Temperature in Deep Open-pit Mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Du, Cuifeng; Jin, Wenbo; Wang, Puyu

2018-01-01

In order to study the key factors of palisades temperature field in a deep open-pit mine in the natural environment, the influence of natural factors on the palisades temperature in a deep open-pit mine were analysed based on the principle of heat transfer. Four typical places with different ways of solar radiation were selected to carry out the field test. The results show that solar radiation, atmospheric temperature, and wind speed are three main factors affecting the temperature of palisades and that the direct sunlight plays a leading role. The time period of the sun shining directly on the shady slope of the palisades is short because of blocking effect, whose temperature changes in a smaller scale. At the same time, the sun slope of the palisades suffers from the solar radiation for a long time, whose temperature changes in a larger scale, and the variation is similar to the air temperature.

Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neeraj; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

2017-09-01

We study the multi-scale temporal correlations and causality connections between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) monthly average closing price indexes for a period of 300 months, encompassing the time period of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and its gradual global exposure. In multi-scale analysis; clearly identifiable 1, 2 and 3 year non-stationary periodic modulations in NYSE and BSE have been observed, with NYSE commensurating changes in BSE at 3 years scale. Interestingly, at one year time scale, the two exchanges are phase locked only during the turbulent times, while at the scale of three year, in-phase nature is observed for a much longer time frame. The two year time period, having characteristics of both one and three year variations, acts as the transition regime. The normalised NYSE's stock value is found to Granger cause those of BSE, with a time lag of 9 months. Surprisingly, observed Granger causality of high frequency variations reveals BSE behaviour getting reflected in the NYSE index fluctuations, after a smaller time lag. This Janus faced relationship, shows that smaller stock exchanges may provide a natural setting for simulating market fluctuations of much bigger exchanges. This possibly arises due to the fact that high frequency fluctuations form an universal part of the financial time series, and are expected to exhibit similar characteristics in open market economies.

Organizing phenological data resources to inform natural resource conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Kellermann, Jherime L.; Posthumus, Erin E.; Denny, Ellen G.; Guertin, Patricia; Marsh, Lee; Weltzin, Jake F.

2014-01-01

Changes in the timing of plant and animal life cycle events, in response to climate change, are already happening across the globe. The impacts of these changes may affect biodiversity via disruption to mutualisms, trophic mismatches, invasions and population declines. To understand the nature, causes and consequences of changed, varied or static phenologies, new data resources and tools are being developed across the globe. The USA National Phenology Network is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database, together with a customizable infrastructure, to support conservation and management needs. We present current and potential applications of the infrastructure, across scales and user groups. The approaches described here are congruent with recent trends towards multi-agency, large-scale research and action.

The relationships of change in physical activity with change in depression, anxiety, and burnout: a longitudinal study of Swedish healthcare workers.

PubMed

Lindwall, Magnus; Gerber, Markus; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H; Börjesson, Mats; Ahlborg, Gunnar

2014-11-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine whether intraindividual changes in physical activity were correlated with intraindividual changes in mental health (depression, anxiety, and burnout) across four measurement time-points over 6 years, both from between-person and within-person perspectives. Health care workers (N = 3717; mean age = 46.9; SD = 10.0) were the target population in this study, which is part of a larger longitudinal survey that included questionnaires on physical activity levels and mental health (depression, anxiety, and burnout) at four time points across 6 years (2004-2010). Physical activity was assessed with an adapted version of the widely used 1-item, 4-level Saltin Grimby Physical Activity Level Scale (SGPALS). Depression, anxiety, and burnout were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HAD) scale and the Shirom-Melamed Burnout Questionnaire (SMBQ). Bivariate latent growth curve models were used to analyze the associations of change between physical activity and mental health. Baseline levels of physical activity were moderately associated with baseline levels of mental health (rs = -.27 to -.40, ps < .01). Changes in physical activity were moderately to strongly associated (rs = -.57 to -.79, ps <. 01) with change in mental health at the between-person (correlated change) level and significantly, but weakly (rs = -.08 to -.14, ps <.01), associated with change at the within-person (coupled change) level of analysis. Changes in physical activity were associated with, and traveled together with, changes in depression, anxiety, and burnout across time. Changes in physical activity, and not only current or previous levels of activity, may be important to consider in preventive work linked to mental health within this population. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

The Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale: Initial Validation of a New Measure of Global Self-Esteem.

PubMed

Harris, Michelle A; Donnellan, M Brent; Trzesniewski, Kali H

2018-01-01

This article introduces the Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale (LSE), a short measure of global self-esteem suitable for populations drawn from across the lifespan. Many existing measures of global self-esteem cannot be used across multiple developmental periods due to changes in item content, response formats, and other scale characteristics. This creates a need for a new lifespan scale so that changes in global self-esteem over time can be studied without confounding maturational changes with alterations in the measure. The LSE is a 4-item measure with a 5-point response format using items inspired by established self-esteem scales. The scale is essentially unidimensional and internally consistent, and it converges with existing self-esteem measures across ages 5 to 93 (N = 2,714). Thus, the LSE appears to be a useful measure of global self-esteem suitable for use across the lifespan as well as contexts where a short measure is desirable, such as populations with short attention spans or large projects assessing multiple constructs. Moreover, the LSE is one of the first global self-esteem scales to be validated for children younger than age 8, which provides the opportunity to broaden the field to include research on early formation and development of global self-esteem, an area that has previously been limited.

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Quantifying distinct associations on different temporal scales: comparison of DCCA and Pearson methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piao, Lin; Fu, Zuntao

2016-11-01

Cross-correlation between pairs of variables takes multi-time scale characteristic, and it can be totally different on different time scales (changing from positive correlation to negative one), e.g., the associations between mean air temperature and relative humidity over regions to the east of Taihang mountain in China. Therefore, how to correctly unveil these correlations on different time scales is really of great importance since we actually do not know if the correlation varies with scales in advance. Here, we compare two methods, i.e. Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA for short) and Pearson correlation, in quantifying scale-dependent correlations directly to raw observed records and artificially generated sequences with known cross-correlation features. Studies show that 1) DCCA related methods can indeed quantify scale-dependent correlations, but not Pearson method; 2) the correlation features from DCCA related methods are robust to contaminated noises, however, the results from Pearson method are sensitive to noise; 3) the scale-dependent correlation results from DCCA related methods are robust to the amplitude ratio between slow and fast components, while Pearson method may be sensitive to the amplitude ratio. All these features indicate that DCCA related methods take some advantages in correctly quantifying scale-dependent correlations, which results from different physical processes.

Quantifying distinct associations on different temporal scales: comparison of DCCA and Pearson methods.

PubMed

Piao, Lin; Fu, Zuntao

2016-11-09

Cross-correlation between pairs of variables takes multi-time scale characteristic, and it can be totally different on different time scales (changing from positive correlation to negative one), e.g., the associations between mean air temperature and relative humidity over regions to the east of Taihang mountain in China. Therefore, how to correctly unveil these correlations on different time scales is really of great importance since we actually do not know if the correlation varies with scales in advance. Here, we compare two methods, i.e. Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA for short) and Pearson correlation, in quantifying scale-dependent correlations directly to raw observed records and artificially generated sequences with known cross-correlation features. Studies show that 1) DCCA related methods can indeed quantify scale-dependent correlations, but not Pearson method; 2) the correlation features from DCCA related methods are robust to contaminated noises, however, the results from Pearson method are sensitive to noise; 3) the scale-dependent correlation results from DCCA related methods are robust to the amplitude ratio between slow and fast components, while Pearson method may be sensitive to the amplitude ratio. All these features indicate that DCCA related methods take some advantages in correctly quantifying scale-dependent correlations, which results from different physical processes.

Diffusion and scaling during early embryonic pattern formation

PubMed Central

Gregor, Thomas; Bialek, William; van Steveninck, Rob R. de Ruyter; Tank, David W.; Wieschaus, Eric F.

2005-01-01

Development of spatial patterns in multicellular organisms depends on gradients in the concentration of signaling molecules that control gene expression. In the Drosophila embryo, Bicoid (Bcd) morphogen controls cell fate along 70% of the anteroposterior axis but is translated from mRNA localized at the anterior pole. Gradients of Bcd and other morphogens are thought to arise through diffusion, but this basic assumption has never been rigorously tested in living embryos. Furthermore, because diffusion sets a relationship between length and time scales, it is hard to see how patterns of gene expression established by diffusion would scale proportionately as egg size changes during evolution. Here, we show that the motion of inert molecules through the embryo is well described by the diffusion equation on the relevant length and time scales, and that effective diffusion constants are essentially the same in closely related dipteran species with embryos of very different size. Nonetheless, patterns of gene expression in these different species scale with egg length. We show that this scaling can be traced back to scaling of the Bcd gradient itself. Our results, together with constraints imposed by the time scales of development, suggest that the mechanism for scaling is a species-specific adaptation of the Bcd lifetime. PMID:16352710

Sample project: establishing a global forest monitoring capability using multi-resolution and multi-temporal remotely sensed data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Matt; Stehman, Steve; Loveland, Tom; Vogelmann, Jim; Cochrane, Mark

2009-01-01

Quantifying rates of forest-cover change is important for improved carbon accounting and climate change modeling, management of forestry and agricultural resources, and biodiversity monitoring. A practical solution to examining trends in forest cover change at global scale is to employ remotely sensed data. Satellite-based monitoring of forest cover can be implemented consistently across large regions at annual and inter-annual intervals. This research extends previous research on global forest-cover dynamics and land-cover change estimation to establish a robust, operational forest monitoring and assessment system. The approach integrates both MODIS and Landsat data to provide timely biome-scale forest change estimation. This is achieved by using annual MODIS change indicator maps to stratify biomes into low, medium and high change categories. Landsat image pairs can then be sampled within these strata and analyzed for estimating area of forest cleared.

Assessing fit, interplay, and scale: Aligning governance and information for improved water management in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Dilling, L.

2011-12-01

Water managers have long experienced the challenges of managing water resources in a variable climate. However, climate change has the potential to reshape the experiential landscape by, for example, increasing the intensity and duration of droughts, shifting precipitation timing and amounts, and changing sea levels. Given the uncertainty in evaluating potential climate risks as well as future water availability and water demands, scholars suggest water managers employ more flexible and adaptive science-based management to manage uncertainty (NRC 2009). While such an approach is appropriate, for adaptive science-based management to be effective both governance and information must be concordant across three measures: fit, interplay and scale (Young 2002)(Note 1). Our research relies on interviews of state water managers and related experts (n=50) and documentary analysis in five U.S. states to understand the drivers and constraints to improving water resource planning and decision-making in a changing climate using an assessment of fit, interplay and scale as an evaluative framework. We apply this framework to assess and compare how water managers plan and respond to current or anticipated water resource challenges within each state. We hypothesize that better alignment between the data and management framework and the water resource problem improves water managers' facility to understand (via available, relevant, timely information) and respond appropriately (through institutional response mechanisms). In addition, better alignment between governance mechanisms (between the scope of the problem and identified appropriate responses) improves water management. Moreover, because many of the management challenges analyzed in this study concern present day issues with scarcity brought on by a combination of growth and drought, better alignment of fit, interplay, and scale today will enable and prepare water managers to be more successful in adapting to climate change impacts in the long-term. Note 1: For the purposes of this research, the problem of fit deals with the level of concordance between the natural and human systems while interplay involves how institutional arrangements interact both horizontally and vertically. Lastly, scale considers both spatial and temporal alignment of the physical systems and management structure. For example, to manage water resources effectively in a changing climate suggests having information that informs short-term and long-term changes and having institutional arrangements that seek understanding across temporal scales and facilitate responses based on information available (Young 2002).

Temporal scaling and spatial statistical analyses of groundwater level fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, H.; Yuan, L., Sr.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Natural dynamics such as groundwater level fluctuations can exhibit multifractionality and/or multifractality due likely to multi-scale aquifer heterogeneity and controlling factors, whose statistics requires efficient quantification methods. This study explores multifractionality and non-Gaussian properties in groundwater dynamics expressed by time series of daily level fluctuation at three wells located in the lower Mississippi valley, after removing the seasonal cycle in the temporal scaling and spatial statistical analysis. First, using the time-scale multifractional analysis, a systematic statistical method is developed to analyze groundwater level fluctuations quantified by the time-scale local Hurst exponent (TS-LHE). Results show that the TS-LHE does not remain constant, implying the fractal-scaling behavior changing with time and location. Hence, we can distinguish the potentially location-dependent scaling feature, which may characterize the hydrology dynamic system. Second, spatial statistical analysis shows that the increment of groundwater level fluctuations exhibits a heavy tailed, non-Gaussian distribution, which can be better quantified by a Lévy stable distribution. Monte Carlo simulations of the fluctuation process also show that the linear fractional stable motion model can well depict the transient dynamics (i.e., fractal non-Gaussian property) of groundwater level, while fractional Brownian motion is inadequate to describe natural processes with anomalous dynamics. Analysis of temporal scaling and spatial statistics therefore may provide useful information and quantification to understand further the nature of complex dynamics in hydrology.

Quantitative modeling of soil genesis processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, E. R.; Knox, R. G.; Kerber, A. G.

1992-01-01

For fine spatial scale simulation, a model is being developed to predict changes in properties over short-, meso-, and long-term time scales within horizons of a given soil profile. Processes that control these changes can be grouped into five major process clusters: (1) abiotic chemical reactions; (2) activities of organisms; (3) energy balance and water phase transitions; (4) hydrologic flows; and (5) particle redistribution. Landscape modeling of soil development is possible using digitized soil maps associated with quantitative soil attribute data in a geographic information system (GIS) framework to which simulation models are applied.

Development of the Environmental Observation scale for the Visual Impaired.

PubMed

Sinoo, Marianne; Kort, Helianthe

2015-01-01

In order to raise awareness of professional care, an Environmental Observation scale for the Visual Impaired (EOVI) was developed. It is the purpose of this tool that professional caregivers learn to observe the nursing home environment and consequently propose and discuss potential changes in the short and long term. The mean time of filling out the EOVI in eight wards of a nursing home by two student researchers was 17 minutes (min mean 12, max mean 22,5). All of 10 optometry students reported that the EOVI changed their awareness.

JCQ scale reliability and responsiveness to changes in manufacturing process.

PubMed

d'Errico, Angelo; Punnett, Laura; Gold, Judith E; Gore, Rebecca

2008-02-01

The job content questionnaire (JCQ) was administered to automobile manufacturing workers in two interviews, 5 years apart. Between the two interviews, the company introduced substantial changes in production technology in some production areas. The aims were: (1) to describe the impact of these changes on self-reported psychosocial exposures, and (2) to examine test-retest reliability of the JCQ scales, taking into account changes in job assignment and, for a subset of workers, physical ergonomic exposures as assessed through field observations. The study population included 790 subjects at the first and 519 at the second interview, of whom 387 were present in both. Differences in demand and control scores between interviews were analyzed by Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank test. Test-retest reliability of these scales was evaluated by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Spearman's rho coefficient. The introduction of more automated technology produced an overall increase in job control but did not decrease psychological demand. The reliability of the control scale was low overall but increased to an acceptable level among workers who had not changed job. The demand scale had high reliability only among workers whose physical ergonomic exposures were similar on both survey occasions. These results show that 5-year test-retest reliability of self-reported psychosocial exposures is adequate among workers whose job assignment and ergonomic exposures have remained stable over time.

Choice with frequently changing food rates and food ratios.

PubMed

Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

2014-03-01

In studies of operant choice, when one schedule of a concurrent pair is varied while the other is held constant, the constancy of the constant schedule may exert discriminative control over performance. In our earlier experiments, schedules varied reciprocally across components within sessions, so that while food ratio varied food rate remained constant. In the present experiment, we held one variable-interval (VI) schedule constant while varying the concurrent VI schedule within sessions. We studied five conditions, each with a different constant left VI schedule. On the right key, seven different VI schedules were presented in seven different unsignaled components. We analyzed performances at several different time scales. At the longest time scale, across conditions, behavior ratios varied with food ratios as would be expected from the generalized matching law. At shorter time scales, effects due to holding the left VI constant became more and more apparent, the shorter the time scale. In choice relations across components, preference for the left key leveled off as the right key became leaner. Interfood choice approximated strict matching for the varied right key, whereas interfood choice hardly varied at all for the constant left key. At the shortest time scale, visit patterns differed for the left and right keys. Much evidence indicated the development of a fix-and-sample pattern. In sum, the procedural difference made a large difference to performance, except for choice at the longest time scale and the fix-and-sample pattern at the shortest time scale. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Earth System Stability Through Geologic Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothman, D.; Bowring, S. A.

2015-12-01

Five times in the past 500 million years, mass extinctions haveresulted in the loss of greater than three-fourths of living species.Each of these events is associated with significant environmentalchange recorded in the carbon-isotopic composition of sedimentaryrocks. There are also many such environmental events in the geologicrecord that are not associated with mass extinctions. What makes themdifferent? Two factors appear important: the size of theenvironmental perturbation, and the time scale over which it occurs.We show that the natural perturbations of Earth's carbon cycle during thepast 500 million years exhibit a characteristic rate of change overtwo orders of magnitude in time scale. This characteristic rate isconsistent with the maximum rate that limits quasistatic (i.e., nearsteady-state) evolution of the carbon cycle. We identify this rate withmarginal stability, and show that mass extinctions occur on the fast,unstable side of the stability boundary. These results suggest thatthe great extinction events of the geologic past, and potentially a"sixth extinction" associated with modern environmental change, arecharacterized by common mechanisms of instability.

The Mediterranean Plio-Pleistocene: A reference frame for astronomically paced low and high latitude climate changes (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lourens, Lucas

2016-04-01

The astronomical theory of climate has revolutionized our understanding of past climate change and the development of highly accurate geologic time scales for the entire Cenozoic. Most of this understanding has started with the construction of high-resolution stable oxygen isotope (18O) records from planktonic and benthic foraminifera of open ocean deep marine sediments explored by the international drilling operations of DSDP, ODP and IODP. These efforts culminated into global ocean isotopic stacked records, which give a clear picture of the evolution of the climate state through time. Fundamental for these reconstructions are the assumptions made between the astronomical forcing and the tuned time series and the accuracy of the astronomical solution. In the past decades, an astronomically calibrated time scale for the Pliocene and Pleistocene of the Mediterranean has been developed, which has become the reference for the standard Geologic Time Scale. Characteristic of the studied marine sediments are the cyclic lithological alternations, reflecting the interference between obliquity and precession-paced low latitude climate variability. These interference patterns allowed to evaluate the accuracy of astronomical solutions and to constrain the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth and tidal dissipation by the Sun and the Moon, which in turn provided the backbone for the widely applied LR04 open ocean benthic isotope stack of the past 5 Myr. So far, the assumed time lags between orbital forcing and the global climate response as reflected in LR04 have not been tested, while these assumptions hark back to SPECMAP, using simple ice sheet models and a limited number of radiometric dates. In addition, LR04 adopted a shorter response time for the smaller ice caps during the Pliocene. Here I present the first benthic 18O record of the Mediterranean reference scale, which strikingly mirrors the LR04. I will use this record to discuss the assumed phase relations and its potential to constrain global sea level changes and their cause over the past 5.3 million years.

Historical changes in pool habitats in the Columbia River basin

Treesearch

Bruce A. McIntosh; James R. Sedell; Russell F. Thurow; Sharon E. Clarke; Gwynn L. Chandler

1995-01-01

Knowledge of how stream habitats change over time in natural and human-influenced ecosystems at large, regional scales is currently limited. A historical stream survey (1934-1945) was compared to current surveys to assess changes in pool habitats in the Columbia River basin. Streams from across the basin, representing a wide range of geologies, stream sizes and land-...

Forest landscape mosaics: Disturbance, restoration, and management at times of global change

Treesearch

Kalev Jogiste; Bengt Gunnar Jonsson; Timo Kuuluvainen; Sylvie Gauthier; W. Keith Moser

2015-01-01

Potential effects of hypothesized anthropogenic climate change are raising concerns about the sustainability of development in terms of both people and the rest of the environment. Land use change at the global scale presents many challenges for the research community. Past land use has a definite effect on future ecosystems, but it is challenging to predict future...

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Treesearch

Mark Torre Jorgenson; Bruce G. Marcot; David K. Swanson; Janet C. Jorgenson; Anthony R. DeGange

2015-01-01

Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25–50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time...

Scale Changes Provide an Alternative Cue For the Discrimination of Heading, But Not Object Motion

PubMed Central

Calabro, Finnegan J.; Vaina, Lucia Maria

2016-01-01

Background Understanding the dynamics of our surrounding environments is a task usually attributed to the detection of motion based on changes in luminance across space. Yet a number of other cues, both dynamic and static, have been shown to provide useful information about how we are moving and how objects around us move. One such cue, based on changes in spatial frequency, or scale, over time has been shown to be useful in conveying motion in depth even in the absence of a coherent, motion-defined flow field (optic flow). Material/Methods 16 right handed healthy observers (ages 18–28) participated in the behavioral experiments described in this study. Using analytical behavioral methods we investigate the functional specificity of this cue by measuring the ability of observers to perform tasks of heading (direction of self-motion) and 3D trajectory discrimination on the basis of scale changes and optic flow. Results Statistical analyses of performance on the test-experiments in comparison to the control experiments suggests that while scale changes may be involved in the detection of heading, they are not correctly integrated with translational motion and, thus, do not provide a correct discrimination of 3D object trajectories. Conclusions These results have the important implication for the type of visual guided navigation that can be done by an observer blind to optic flow. Scale change is an important alternative cue for self-motion. PMID:27231114

Scale Changes Provide an Alternative Cue For the Discrimination of Heading, But Not Object Motion.

PubMed

Calabro, Finnegan J; Vaina, Lucia Maria

2016-05-27

BACKGROUND Understanding the dynamics of our surrounding environments is a task usually attributed to the detection of motion based on changes in luminance across space. Yet a number of other cues, both dynamic and static, have been shown to provide useful information about how we are moving and how objects around us move. One such cue, based on changes in spatial frequency, or scale, over time has been shown to be useful in conveying motion in depth even in the absence of a coherent, motion-defined flow field (optic flow). MATERIAL AND METHODS 16 right handed healthy observers (ages 18-28) participated in the behavioral experiments described in this study. Using analytical behavioral methods we investigate the functional specificity of this cue by measuring the ability of observers to perform tasks of heading (direction of self-motion) and 3D trajectory discrimination on the basis of scale changes and optic flow. RESULTS Statistical analyses of performance on the test-experiments in comparison to the control experiments suggests that while scale changes may be involved in the detection of heading, they are not correctly integrated with translational motion and, thus, do not provide a correct discrimination of 3D object trajectories. CONCLUSIONS These results have the important implication for the type of visual guided navigation that can be done by an observer blind to optic flow. Scale change is an important alternative cue for self-motion.

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell; McMahon, Gerard; Raye Nilius,; Mike Bryant,; Dave Case,; Martin, Julien; Wood, Nathan J.; Laura Taylor,

2015-01-01

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Land use/cover change detection and urban sprawl analysis in Bandar Abbas city, Iran.

PubMed

Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved.

Land Use/Cover Change Detection and Urban Sprawl Analysis in Bandar Abbas City, Iran

PubMed Central

Mohd Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956–2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

ICLEA - The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Markus; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Blume, Theresa; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin

2017-04-01

Since 2012, the partner of the virtual institute ICLEA from Germany and Poland view on past changes as natural experiments as a guidebook for better anticipation of future changes and their impacts. Since the natural evolution became increasingly superimposed by human impacts since the Neolithic we include an in-depth discussion of impacts of climate and environment change on societies and vice versa. Understanding causes and effects of present-day climate change on landscapes and the human habitat faces two main challenges, (I) too short time series of instrumental observation that do not cover the full range of variability since mechanisms of climate change and landscape evolution work on different time scales, which often not susceptible to human perception, and, (II) distinct regional differences due to the location with respect to oceanic/continental climatic influences, the geological underground, and the history and intensity of anthropogenic land-use. Both challenges are central for the ICLEA research strategy and demand a high degree of interdisciplinary. In particular, the need to link observations and measurements of ongoing changes with information from the past taken from natural archives requires joint work of scientists with very different time perspectives. On the one hand, scientists that work at geological time scales of thousands and more years and, on the other hand, those observing and investigating recent processes at short time scales. Five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects: WP 1 focused on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analyzing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 are focused on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last centuries up to few millennia, varved lake sediments cover the entire research time interval at seasonal to decadal resolution and palaeosoils and geomorphological features also cover the entire period but not continuously and with lower resolution. Complementary information, like climate, tree ecophysiological and limnological data etc., are provided by cooperation with associated partners. In these five WP the partner focusing their research capacities and expertise in ICLEA. We offers young researchers an interdisciplinary and structured education and promote their early independence through coaching and mentoring. Postdoctoral rotation positions promote dissemination of information and expertise between disciplines. ICLEA results are published in about 80 peer reviewed scientific articles and available for the scientific community. The long-term mission of the Virtual Institute is to provide a substantiated data basis for sustained environmental maintenance based on a profound process understanding at all relevant time scales. Aim is to explore processes of climate and landscape evolution in an historical cultural landscape extending from northeastern Germany into northwestern Poland. The northern-central European lowlands is facilitated as a natural laboratory providing an ideal case for utilizing a systematic and holistic approach. Further information about ICLEA: www.iclea.de

Behavioral responses of wolves to roads: scale-dependent ambivalence

PubMed Central

Nelson, Lindsey; Wabakken, Petter; Sand, Håkan; Liberg, Olof

2014-01-01

Throughout their recent recovery in several industrialized countries, large carnivores have had to cope with a changed landscape dominated by human infrastructure. Population growth depends on the ability of individuals to adapt to these changes by making use of new habitat features and at the same time to avoid increased risks of mortality associated with human infrastructure. We analyzed the summer movements of 19 GPS-collared resident wolves (Canis lupus L.) from 14 territories in Scandinavia in relation to roads. We used resource and step selection functions, including >12000 field-checked GPS-positions and 315 kill sites. Wolves displayed ambivalent responses to roads depending on the spatial scale, road type, time of day, behavioral state, and reproductive status. At the site scale (approximately 0.1 km2), they selected for roads when traveling, nearly doubling their travel speed. Breeding wolves moved the fastest. At the patch scale (10 km2), house density rather than road density was a significant negative predictor of wolf patch selection. At the home range scale (approximately 1000 km2), breeding wolves increased gravel road use with increasing road availability, although at a lower rate than expected. Wolves have adapted to use roads for ease of travel, but at the same time developed a cryptic behavior to avoid human encounters. This behavioral plasticity may have been important in allowing the successful recovery of wolf populations in industrialized countries. However, we emphasize the role of roads as a potential cause of increased human-caused mortality. PMID:25419085

Behavioral responses of wolves to roads: scale-dependent ambivalence.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Barbara; Nelson, Lindsey; Wabakken, Petter; Sand, Håkan; Liberg, Olof

2014-11-01

Throughout their recent recovery in several industrialized countries, large carnivores have had to cope with a changed landscape dominated by human infrastructure. Population growth depends on the ability of individuals to adapt to these changes by making use of new habitat features and at the same time to avoid increased risks of mortality associated with human infrastructure. We analyzed the summer movements of 19 GPS-collared resident wolves ( Canis lupus L.) from 14 territories in Scandinavia in relation to roads. We used resource and step selection functions, including >12000 field-checked GPS-positions and 315 kill sites. Wolves displayed ambivalent responses to roads depending on the spatial scale, road type, time of day, behavioral state, and reproductive status. At the site scale (approximately 0.1 km 2 ), they selected for roads when traveling, nearly doubling their travel speed. Breeding wolves moved the fastest. At the patch scale (10 km 2 ), house density rather than road density was a significant negative predictor of wolf patch selection. At the home range scale (approximately 1000 km 2 ), breeding wolves increased gravel road use with increasing road availability, although at a lower rate than expected. Wolves have adapted to use roads for ease of travel, but at the same time developed a cryptic behavior to avoid human encounters. This behavioral plasticity may have been important in allowing the successful recovery of wolf populations in industrialized countries. However, we emphasize the role of roads as a potential cause of increased human-caused mortality.

Mass Extinctions and Biosphere-Geosphere Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothman, Daniel; Bowring, Samuel

2015-04-01

Five times in the past 500 million years, mass extinctions have resulted in the loss of greater than three-fourths of living species. Each of these events is associated with significant environmental change recorded in the carbon-isotopic composition of sedimentary rocks. There are also many such environmental events in the geologic record that are not associated with mass extinctions. What makes them different? Two factors appear important: the size of the environmental perturbation, and the time scale over which it occurs. We show that the natural perturbations of Earth's carbon cycle during the past 500 million years exhibit a characteristic rate of change over two orders of magnitude in time scale. This characteristic rate is consistent with the maximum rate that limits quasistatic (i.e., near steady-state) evolution of the carbon cycle. We identify this rate with marginal stability, and show that mass extinctions occur on the fast, unstable side of the stability boundary. These results suggest that the great extinction events of the geologic past, and potentially a "sixth extinction" associated with modern environmental change, are characterized by common mechanisms of instability.

Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2011-12-01

As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

In-operando synchronous time-multiplexed O K-edge x-ray absorption spectromicroscopy of functioning tantalum oxide memristors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Suhas; Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305; Graves, Catherine E.

2015-07-21

Memristors are receiving keen interest because of their potential varied applications and promising large-scale information storage capabilities. Tantalum oxide is a memristive material that has shown promise for high-performance nonvolatile computer memory. The microphysics has been elusive because of the small scale and subtle physical changes that accompany conductance switching. In this study, we probed the atomic composition, local chemistry, and electronic structure of functioning tantalum oxide memristors through spatially mapped O K-edge x-ray absorption. We developed a time-multiplexed spectromicroscopy technique to enhance the weak and possibly localized oxide modifications with spatial and spectral resolutions of <30 nm and 70 meV, respectively.more » During the initial stages of conductance switching of a micrometer sized crosspoint device, the spectral changes were uniform within the spatial resolution of our technique. When the device was further driven with millions of high voltage-pulse cycles, we observed lateral motion and separation of ∼100 nm-scale agglomerates of both oxygen interstitials and vacancies. We also demonstrate a unique capability of this technique by identifying the relaxation behavior in the material during electrical stimuli by identifying electric field driven changes with varying pulse widths. In addition, we show that changes to the material can be localized to a spatial region by modifying its topography or uniformity, as against spatially uniform changes observed here during memristive switching. The goal of this report is to introduce the capability of time-multiplexed x-ray spectromicroscopy in studying weak-signal transitions in inhomogeneous media through the example of the operation and temporal evolution of a memristor.« less

An empirical, integrated forest biomass monitoring system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Robert E.; Ohmann, Janet; Gregory, Matt; Roberts, Heather; Yang, Zhiqiang; Bell, David M.; Kane, Van; Hughes, M. Joseph; Cohen, Warren B.; Powell, Scott; Neeti, Neeti; Larrue, Tara; Hooper, Sam; Kane, Jonathan; Miller, David L.; Perkins, James; Braaten, Justin; Seidl, Rupert

2018-02-01

The fate of live forest biomass is largely controlled by growth and disturbance processes, both natural and anthropogenic. Thus, biomass monitoring strategies must characterize both the biomass of the forests at a given point in time and the dynamic processes that change it. Here, we describe and test an empirical monitoring system designed to meet those needs. Our system uses a mix of field data, statistical modeling, remotely-sensed time-series imagery, and small-footprint lidar data to build and evaluate maps of forest biomass. It ascribes biomass change to specific change agents, and attempts to capture the impact of uncertainty in methodology. We find that: • A common image framework for biomass estimation and for change detection allows for consistent comparison of both state and change processes controlling biomass dynamics. • Regional estimates of total biomass agree well with those from plot data alone. • The system tracks biomass densities up to 450-500 Mg ha-1 with little bias, but begins underestimating true biomass as densities increase further. • Scale considerations are important. Estimates at the 30 m grain size are noisy, but agreement at broad scales is good. Further investigation to determine the appropriate scales is underway. • Uncertainty from methodological choices is evident, but much smaller than uncertainty based on choice of allometric equation used to estimate biomass from tree data. • In this forest-dominated study area, growth and loss processes largely balance in most years, with loss processes dominated by human removal through harvest. In years with substantial fire activity, however, overall biomass loss greatly outpaces growth. Taken together, our methods represent a unique combination of elements foundational to an operational landscape-scale forest biomass monitoring program.

An effective online data monitoring and saving strategy for large-scale climate simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xian, Xiaochen; Archibald, Rick; Mayer, Benjamin

Large-scale climate simulation models have been developed and widely used to generate historical data and study future climate scenarios. These simulation models often have to run for a couple of months to understand the changes in the global climate over the course of decades. This long-duration simulation process creates a huge amount of data with both high temporal and spatial resolution information; however, how to effectively monitor and record the climate changes based on these large-scale simulation results that are continuously produced in real time still remains to be resolved. Due to the slow process of writing data to disk,more » the current practice is to save a snapshot of the simulation results at a constant, slow rate although the data generation process runs at a very high speed. This study proposes an effective online data monitoring and saving strategy over the temporal and spatial domains with the consideration of practical storage and memory capacity constraints. Finally, our proposed method is able to intelligently select and record the most informative extreme values in the raw data generated from real-time simulations in the context of better monitoring climate changes.« less

An effective online data monitoring and saving strategy for large-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Xian, Xiaochen; Archibald, Rick; Mayer, Benjamin; ...

2018-01-22

Large-scale climate simulation models have been developed and widely used to generate historical data and study future climate scenarios. These simulation models often have to run for a couple of months to understand the changes in the global climate over the course of decades. This long-duration simulation process creates a huge amount of data with both high temporal and spatial resolution information; however, how to effectively monitor and record the climate changes based on these large-scale simulation results that are continuously produced in real time still remains to be resolved. Due to the slow process of writing data to disk,more » the current practice is to save a snapshot of the simulation results at a constant, slow rate although the data generation process runs at a very high speed. This study proposes an effective online data monitoring and saving strategy over the temporal and spatial domains with the consideration of practical storage and memory capacity constraints. Finally, our proposed method is able to intelligently select and record the most informative extreme values in the raw data generated from real-time simulations in the context of better monitoring climate changes.« less

Some aspects of large-scale travelling ionospheric disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, G. G.

1992-06-01

On two occasions the speeds and directions of travel of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LS-TIDs) following geomagnetic substorm onsets, have been calculated for the propagation of these disturbances in both hemispheres of the earth. N(h) analyses have been used to produce height change profiles at a fixed frequency from which time shifts between stations (used for the speed and direction-of-travel values) have been calculated. Fixed-frequency phase path measurements at Bribie Island for two events reveal wavetrains with periodicities around 17 min associated with these disturbances. Another event recorded a periodicity of 19 min. Also, for two of the events additional periodicities around 30 min were found. These wavetrains along with the macroscale height changes and electron density depletions associated with these LS-TIDs are essentially the same as the ionospheric structure changes observed during the passage of night-time medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MS-TIDs). However, unlike these MS-TIDs, the LS-TIDs are generally not associated with the recording of spread-F on ionograms. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed as well as the special conditions which probably prevail on the few occasions when spread-F is associated with LS-TIDs.

The atmospheric implications of radiation belt remediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodger, C. J.; Clilverd, M. A.; Ulich, Th.; Verronen, P. T.; Turunen, E.; Thomson, N. R.

2006-08-01

High altitude nuclear explosions (HANEs) and geomagnetic storms can produce large scale injections of relativistic particles into the inner radiation belts. It is recognised that these large increases in >1 MeV trapped electron fluxes can shorten the operational lifetime of low Earth orbiting satellites, threatening a large, valuable population. Therefore, studies are being undertaken to bring about practical human control of the radiation belts, termed "Radiation Belt Remediation" (RBR). Here we consider the upper atmospheric consequences of an RBR system operating over either 1 or 10 days. The RBR-forced neutral chemistry changes, leading to NOx enhancements and Ox depletions, are significant during the timescale of the precipitation but are generally not long-lasting. The magnitudes, time-scales, and altitudes of these changes are no more significant than those observed during large solar proton events. In contrast, RBR-operation will lead to unusually intense HF blackouts for about the first half of the operation time, producing large scale disruptions to radio communication and navigation systems. While the neutral atmosphere changes are not particularly important, HF disruptions could be an important area for policy makers to consider, particularly for the remediation of natural injections.

Joint scale-change models for recurrent events and failure time.

PubMed

Xu, Gongjun; Chiou, Sy Han; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Mei-Cheng; Yan, Jun

2017-01-01

Recurrent event data arise frequently in various fields such as biomedical sciences, public health, engineering, and social sciences. In many instances, the observation of the recurrent event process can be stopped by the occurrence of a correlated failure event, such as treatment failure and death. In this article, we propose a joint scale-change model for the recurrent event process and the failure time, where a shared frailty variable is used to model the association between the two types of outcomes. In contrast to the popular Cox-type joint modeling approaches, the regression parameters in the proposed joint scale-change model have marginal interpretations. The proposed approach is robust in the sense that no parametric assumption is imposed on the distribution of the unobserved frailty and that we do not need the strong Poisson-type assumption for the recurrent event process. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed semiparametric estimators under suitable regularity conditions. To estimate the corresponding variances of the estimators, we develop a computationally efficient resampling-based procedure. Simulation studies and an analysis of hospitalization data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

An analysis of neural receptive field plasticity by point process adaptive filtering

PubMed Central

Brown, Emery N.; Nguyen, David P.; Frank, Loren M.; Wilson, Matthew A.; Solo, Victor

2001-01-01

Neural receptive fields are plastic: with experience, neurons in many brain regions change their spiking responses to relevant stimuli. Analysis of receptive field plasticity from experimental measurements is crucial for understanding how neural systems adapt their representations of relevant biological information. Current analysis methods using histogram estimates of spike rate functions in nonoverlapping temporal windows do not track the evolution of receptive field plasticity on a fine time scale. Adaptive signal processing is an established engineering paradigm for estimating time-varying system parameters from experimental measurements. We present an adaptive filter algorithm for tracking neural receptive field plasticity based on point process models of spike train activity. We derive an instantaneous steepest descent algorithm by using as the criterion function the instantaneous log likelihood of a point process spike train model. We apply the point process adaptive filter algorithm in a study of spatial (place) receptive field properties of simulated and actual spike train data from rat CA1 hippocampal neurons. A stability analysis of the algorithm is sketched in the Appendix. The adaptive algorithm can update the place field parameter estimates on a millisecond time scale. It reliably tracked the migration, changes in scale, and changes in maximum firing rate characteristic of hippocampal place fields in a rat running on a linear track. Point process adaptive filtering offers an analytic method for studying the dynamics of neural receptive fields. PMID:11593043

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Statistical Model to Analyze Quantitative Proteomics Data Obtained by 18O/16O Labeling and Linear Ion Trap Mass Spectrometry

PubMed Central

Jorge, Inmaculada; Navarro, Pedro; Martínez-Acedo, Pablo; Núñez, Estefanía; Serrano, Horacio; Alfranca, Arántzazu; Redondo, Juan Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús

2009-01-01

Statistical models for the analysis of protein expression changes by stable isotope labeling are still poorly developed, particularly for data obtained by 16O/18O labeling. Besides large scale test experiments to validate the null hypothesis are lacking. Although the study of mechanisms underlying biological actions promoted by vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) on endothelial cells is of considerable interest, quantitative proteomics studies on this subject are scarce and have been performed after exposing cells to the factor for long periods of time. In this work we present the largest quantitative proteomics study to date on the short term effects of VEGF on human umbilical vein endothelial cells by 18O/16O labeling. Current statistical models based on normality and variance homogeneity were found unsuitable to describe the null hypothesis in a large scale test experiment performed on these cells, producing false expression changes. A random effects model was developed including four different sources of variance at the spectrum-fitting, scan, peptide, and protein levels. With the new model the number of outliers at scan and peptide levels was negligible in three large scale experiments, and only one false protein expression change was observed in the test experiment among more than 1000 proteins. The new model allowed the detection of significant protein expression changes upon VEGF stimulation for 4 and 8 h. The consistency of the changes observed at 4 h was confirmed by a replica at a smaller scale and further validated by Western blot analysis of some proteins. Most of the observed changes have not been described previously and are consistent with a pattern of protein expression that dynamically changes over time following the evolution of the angiogenic response. With this statistical model the 18O labeling approach emerges as a very promising and robust alternative to perform quantitative proteomics studies at a depth of several thousand proteins. PMID:19181660

No evidence for consistent long-term growth stimulation of 13 tropical tree species: results from tree-ring analysis.

PubMed

Groenendijk, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Bongers, Frans; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-10-01

The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2 -fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights into species-specific growth changes - that ultimately determine community-level responses - are lacking. Here, we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size-class isolation) growth-trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tracking ongoing cognition in individuals using brief, whole-brain functional connectivity patterns

PubMed Central

Gonzalez-Castillo, Javier; Hoy, Colin W.; Handwerker, Daniel A.; Robinson, Meghan E.; Buchanan, Laura C.; Saad, Ziad S.; Bandettini, Peter A.

2015-01-01

Functional connectivity (FC) patterns in functional MRI exhibit dynamic behavior on the scale of seconds, with rich spatiotemporal structure and limited sets of whole-brain, quasi-stable FC configurations (FC states) recurring across time and subjects. Based on previous evidence linking various aspects of cognition to group-level, minute-to-minute FC changes in localized connections, we hypothesized that whole-brain FC states may reflect the global, orchestrated dynamics of cognitive processing on the scale of seconds. To test this hypothesis, subjects were continuously scanned as they engaged in and transitioned between mental states dictated by tasks. FC states computed within windows as short as 22.5 s permitted robust tracking of cognition in single subjects with near perfect accuracy. Accuracy dropped markedly for subjects with the lowest task performance. Spatially restricting FC information decreased accuracy at short time scales, emphasizing the distributed nature of whole-brain FC dynamics, beyond univariate magnitude changes, as valuable markers of cognition. PMID:26124112