Aging underdamped scaled Brownian motion: Ensemble- and time-averaged particle displacements, nonergodicity, and the failure of the overdamping approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safdari, Hadiseh; Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Bodrova, Anna; Metzler, Ralf

2017-01-01

We investigate both analytically and by computer simulations the ensemble- and time-averaged, nonergodic, and aging properties of massive particles diffusing in a medium with a time dependent diffusivity. We call this stochastic diffusion process the (aging) underdamped scaled Brownian motion (UDSBM). We demonstrate how the mean squared displacement (MSD) and the time-averaged MSD of UDSBM are affected by the inertial term in the Langevin equation, both at short, intermediate, and even long diffusion times. In particular, we quantify the ballistic regime for the MSD and the time-averaged MSD as well as the spread of individual time-averaged MSD trajectories. One of the main effects we observe is that, both for the MSD and the time-averaged MSD, for superdiffusive UDSBM the ballistic regime is much shorter than for ordinary Brownian motion. In contrast, for subdiffusive UDSBM, the ballistic region extends to much longer diffusion times. Therefore, particular care needs to be taken under what conditions the overdamped limit indeed provides a correct description, even in the long time limit. We also analyze to what extent ergodicity in the Boltzmann-Khinchin sense in this nonstationary system is broken, both for subdiffusive and superdiffusive UDSBM. Finally, the limiting case of ultraslow UDSBM is considered, with a mixed logarithmic and power-law dependence of the ensemble- and time-averaged MSDs of the particles. In the limit of strong aging, remarkably, the ordinary UDSBM and the ultraslow UDSBM behave similarly in the short time ballistic limit. The approaches developed here open ways for considering other stochastic processes under physically important conditions when a finite particle mass and aging in the system cannot be neglected.

Back to the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale: time to reconsider?

PubMed

Rappange, David R; Brouwer, Werner B F; van Exel, N Job A

2009-10-01

The Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) Scale is a measure of the extent to which individuals consider and are influenced by the distant outcomes of current behavior. In this study, the authors conducted factor analysis to investigate the factor structure of the 12-item CFC Scale. The authors found evidence for a multiple factor solution including one completely present-oriented factor consisting of all 7 present-oriented items, and one or two future-oriented factors consisting of the remaining future-oriented items. Further evidence indicated that the present-oriented factor and the 12-item CFC Scale perform similarly in terms of internal consistency and convergent validity. The structure and content of the future-oriented factor(s) is unclear. From the findings, the authors raise questions regarding the construct validity of the CFC Scale, the interpretation of its results, and the usefulness of the CFC scale in its current form in applied research.

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Turbulent Superstructures in Rayleigh-Bénard convection at different Prandtl number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, Jörg; Pandey, Ambrish; Ender, Martin; Westermann, Rüdiger; Scheel, Janet D.

2017-11-01

Large-scale patterns of the temperature and velocity field in horizontally extended cells can be considered as turbulent superstructures in Rayleigh-Bénard convection (RBC). These structures are obtained once the turbulent fluctuations are removed by a finite-time average. Their existence has been reported for example in Bailon-Cuba et al.. This large-scale order obeys a strong similarity with the well-studied patterns from the weakly nonlinear regime at lower Rayleigh number in RBC. In the present work we analyze the superstructures of RBC at different Prandtl number for Prandtl values between Pr = 0.005 for liquid sodium and 7 for water. The characteristic evolution time scales, the typical spatial extension of the rolls and the properties of the defects of the resulting superstructure patterns are analyzed. Data are obtained from well-resolved spectral element direct numerical simulations. The work is supported by the Priority Programme SPP 1881 of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Clusters of Galaxies at High Redshift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fort, Bernard

For a long time, the small number of clusters at z > 0.3 in the Abell survey catalogue and simulations of the standard CDM formation of large scale structures provided a paradigm where clusters were considered as young merging structures. At earlier times, loose concentrations of galaxy clumps were mostly anticipated. Recent observations broke the taboo. Progressively we became convinced that compact and massive clusters at z = 1 or possibly beyond exist and should be searched for.

Why Do Model Tropical Cyclones Intensify More Rapidly at Low Latitudes?

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

angularmomentum, greatly surpass the effects of rotational stiffness (inertial stability) and evaporative-wind feedback that have been proposed in...sification in a quiescent environment and have examined, inter alia, the effect of latitude on vortex evolution (e.g., DeMaria and Pickle 1988; Smith et al... Coriolis parameter. This time scale is about 16 h for latitudes of interest considered by Carrier, and it emerges by determining the time re- quired

Nutritional Systems Biology Modeling: From Molecular Mechanisms to Physiology

PubMed Central

de Graaf, Albert A.; Freidig, Andreas P.; De Roos, Baukje; Jamshidi, Neema; Heinemann, Matthias; Rullmann, Johan A.C.; Hall, Kevin D.; Adiels, Martin; van Ommen, Ben

2009-01-01

The use of computational modeling and simulation has increased in many biological fields, but despite their potential these techniques are only marginally applied in nutritional sciences. Nevertheless, recent applications of modeling have been instrumental in answering important nutritional questions from the cellular up to the physiological levels. Capturing the complexity of today's important nutritional research questions poses a challenge for modeling to become truly integrative in the consideration and interpretation of experimental data at widely differing scales of space and time. In this review, we discuss a selection of available modeling approaches and applications relevant for nutrition. We then put these models into perspective by categorizing them according to their space and time domain. Through this categorization process, we identified a dearth of models that consider processes occurring between the microscopic and macroscopic scale. We propose a “middle-out” strategy to develop the required full-scale, multilevel computational models. Exhaustive and accurate phenotyping, the use of the virtual patient concept, and the development of biomarkers from “-omics” signatures are identified as key elements of a successful systems biology modeling approach in nutrition research—one that integrates physiological mechanisms and data at multiple space and time scales. PMID:19956660

Testing the limits of Paleozoic chronostratigraphic correlation via high-resolution (13Ccarb) biochemostratigraphy across the Llandovery–Wenlock (Silurian) boundary: Is a unified Phanerozoic time scale achievable?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, Bradley D.; Loydell, David K.; Samtleben, Christian; Munnecke, Axel; Kaljo, Dimitri; Mannik, Peep; Martma, Tonu; Jeppsson, Lennart; Kleffner, Mark A.; Barrick, James E.; Johnson, Craig A.; Emsbo, Poul; Joachimski, Michael M.; Bickert, Torsten; Saltzman, Matthew R.

2010-01-01

The resolution and fidelity of global chronostratigraphic correlation are direct functions of the time period under consideration. By virtue of deep-ocean cores and astrochronology, the Cenozoic and Mesozoic time scales carry error bars of a few thousand years (k.y.) to a few hundred k.y. In contrast, most of the Paleozoic time scale carries error bars of plus or minus a few million years (m.y.), and chronostratigraphic control better than ??1 m.y. is considered "high resolution." The general lack of Paleozoic abyssal sediments and paucity of orbitally tuned Paleozoic data series combined with the relative incompleteness of the Paleozoic stratigraphic record have proven historically to be such an obstacle to intercontinental chronostratigraphic correlation that resolving the Paleozoic time scale to the level achieved during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic was viewed as impractical, impossible, or both. Here, we utilize integrated graptolite, conodont, and carbonate carbon isotope (??13Ccarb) data from three paleocontinents (Baltica, Avalonia, and Laurentia) to demonstrate chronostratigraphic control for upper Llando very through middle Wenlock (Telychian-Sheinwoodian, ~436-426 Ma) strata with a resolution of a few hundred k.y. The interval surrounding the base of the Wenlock Series can now be correlated globally with precision approaching 100 k.y., but some intervals (e.g., uppermost Telychian and upper Shein-woodian) are either yet to be studied in sufficient detail or do not show sufficient biologic speciation and/or extinction or carbon isotopic features to delineate such small time slices. Although producing such resolution during the Paleozoic presents an array of challenges unique to the era, we have begun to demonstrate that erecting a Paleozoic time scale comparable to that of younger eras is achievable. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

The Co-Operative: Good with Schools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coates, Max

2015-01-01

The article is a summary of a small-scale research project which considers the formation of Co-operative Trust Schools. This was carried out in 2013 at a time when the number of schools becoming Academies and Trust Schools through the Co-operative College was burgeoning. Through questionnaire, interview, documentary analysis and exploration of…

Spatial, temporal, and hybrid decompositions for large-scale vehicle routing with time windows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bent, Russell W

This paper studies the use of decomposition techniques to quickly find high-quality solutions to large-scale vehicle routing problems with time windows. It considers an adaptive decomposition scheme which iteratively decouples a routing problem based on the current solution. Earlier work considered vehicle-based decompositions that partitions the vehicles across the subproblems. The subproblems can then be optimized independently and merged easily. This paper argues that vehicle-based decompositions, although very effective on various problem classes also have limitations. In particular, they do not accommodate temporal decompositions and may produce spatial decompositions that are not focused enough. This paper then proposes customer-based decompositionsmore » which generalize vehicle-based decouplings and allows for focused spatial and temporal decompositions. Experimental results on class R2 of the extended Solomon benchmarks demonstrates the benefits of the customer-based adaptive decomposition scheme and its spatial, temporal, and hybrid instantiations. In particular, they show that customer-based decompositions bring significant benefits over large neighborhood search in contrast to vehicle-based decompositions.« less

Conservative management of extradural hematoma: A report of sixty-two cases.

PubMed

Zwayed, A Rahim H; Lucke-Wold, Brandon

2018-06-01

Extradural hematomas (EDH) are considered life threatening in that the risk for brain herniation is significant. The current accepted understanding within the literature is to treat EDH via surgical evacuation of the hematoma. In this case-series we report 62 cases of EDH managed conservatively without surgical intervention. Inclusion criteria were: Glasgow comma scale score 13-15, extradural hematoma confirmed by CT being less than 40 mm, less than 6 mm of midline shift, and no other surgical lesions present. Patients were initially observed in a surgical intensive care unit prior to discharge and had closely scheduled follow-up. Of the 62 cases none required emergent intervention and the majority had interval resolution of the epidural hematoma over time. Resolution was apparent by 21 days and definitive by 3 to 6 months. Patients with EDH who have a high Glasgow comma scale score 13-15, volume <40 mm, and less than 6 mm of midline shift should be considered for conservative management. Our study indicates that these patients will have interval resolution of hematoma over time without worsening of symptoms.

The role of fanatics in consensus formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gündüç, Semra

2015-08-01

A model of opinion dynamics with two types of agents as social actors are presented, using the Ising thermodynamic model as the dynamics template. The agents are considered as opportunists which live at sites and interact with the neighbors, or fanatics/missionaries which move from site to site randomly in persuasion of converting agents of opposite opinion with the help of opportunists. Here, the moving agents act as an external influence on the opportunists to convert them to the opposite opinion. It is shown by numerical simulations that such dynamics of opinion formation may explain some details of consensus formation even when one of the opinions are held by a minority. Regardless the distribution of the opinion, different size societies exhibit different opinion formation behavior and time scales. In order to understand general behavior, the scaling relations obtained by comparing opinion formation processes observed in societies with varying population and number of randomly moving agents are studied. For the proposed model two types of scaling relations are observed. In fixed size societies, increasing the number of randomly moving agents give a scaling relation for the time scale of the opinion formation process. The second type of scaling relation is due to the size dependent information propagation in finite but large systems, namely finite-size scaling.

Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale Cloud Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.

1998-01-01

The atmospheric circulation and its interaction with the oceanic circulation involve non-linear and non-local exchanges of energy and water over a very large range of space and time scales. These exchanges are revealed, in part, by the related variations of clouds, which occur on a similar range of scales as the atmospheric motions that produce them. Collection of comprehensive measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, clouds and surface allows for diagnosis of some of these exchanges. The use of a multi-satellite-network approach by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) comes closest to providing complete coverage of the relevant range space and time scales over which the clouds, atmosphere and ocean vary. A nearly 15-yr dataset is now available that covers the range from 3 hr and 30 km to decade and planetary. This paper considers three topics: (1) cloud variations at the smallest scales and how they may influence radiation-cloud interactions, and (2) cloud variations at "moderate" scales and how they may cause natural climate variability, and (3) cloud variations at the largest scales and how they affect the climate. The emphasis in this discussion is on the more mature subject of cloud-radiation interactions. There is now a need to begin similar detailed diagnostic studies of water exchange processes.

Higher order moments of the matter distribution in scale-free cosmological simulations with large dynamic range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucchin, Francesco; Matarrese, Sabino; Melott, Adrian L.; Moscardini, Lauro

1994-01-01

We calculate reduced moments (xi bar)(sub q) of the matter density fluctuations, up to order q = 5, from counts in cells produced by particle-mesh numerical simulations with scale-free Gaussian initial conditions. We use power-law spectra P(k) proportional to k(exp n) with indices n = -3, -2, -1, 0, 1. Due to the supposed absence of characteristic times or scales in our models, all quantities are expected to depend on a single scaling variable. For each model, the moments at all times can be expressed in terms of the variance (xi bar)(sub 2), alone. We look for agreement with the hierarchical scaling ansatz, according to which ((xi bar)(sub q)) proportional to ((xi bar)(sub 2))(exp (q - 1)). For n less than or equal to -2 models, we find strong deviations from the hierarchy, which are mostly due to the presence of boundary problems in the simulations. A small, residual signal of deviation from the hierarchical scaling is however also found in n greater than or equal to -1 models. The wide range of spectra considered and the large dynamic range, with careful checks of scaling and shot-noise effects, allows us to reliably detect evolution away from the perturbation theory result.

On non-exponential cosmological solutions with two factor spaces of dimensions m and 1 in the Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet model with a Λ-term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ernazarov, K. K.

2017-12-01

We consider a (m + 2)-dimensional Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet (EGB) model with the cosmological Λ-term. We restrict the metrics to be diagonal ones and find for certain Λ = Λ(m) class of cosmological solutions with non-exponential time dependence of two scale factors of dimensions m > 2 and 1. Any solution from this class describes an accelerated expansion of m-dimensional subspace and tends asymptotically to isotropic solution with exponential dependence of scale factors.

Viscous decay of nonlinear oscillations of a spherical bubble at large Reynolds number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. R.; Wang, Q. X.

2017-08-01

The long-time viscous decay of large-amplitude bubble oscillations is considered in an incompressible Newtonian fluid, based on the Rayleigh-Plesset equation. At large Reynolds numbers, this is a multi-scaled problem with a short time scale associated with inertial oscillation and a long time scale associated with viscous damping. A multi-scaled perturbation method is thus employed to solve the problem. The leading-order analytical solution of the bubble radius history is obtained to the Rayleigh-Plesset equation in a closed form including both viscous and surface tension effects. Some important formulae are derived including the following: the average energy loss rate of the bubble system during each cycle of oscillation, an explicit formula for the dependence of the oscillation frequency on the energy, and an implicit formula for the amplitude envelope of the bubble radius as a function of the energy. Our theory shows that the energy of the bubble system and the frequency of oscillation do not change on the inertial time scale at leading order, the energy loss rate on the long viscous time scale being inversely proportional to the Reynolds number. These asymptotic predictions remain valid during each cycle of oscillation whether or not compressibility effects are significant. A systematic parametric analysis is carried out using the above formula for the energy of the bubble system, frequency of oscillation, and minimum/maximum bubble radii in terms of the Reynolds number, the dimensionless initial pressure of the bubble gases, and the Weber number. Our results show that the frequency and the decay rate have substantial variations over the lifetime of a decaying oscillation. The results also reveal that large-amplitude bubble oscillations are very sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions through large changes in the phase shift.

Collecting verbal autopsies: improving and streamlining data collection processes using electronic tablets.

PubMed

Flaxman, Abraham D; Stewart, Andrea; Joseph, Jonathan C; Alam, Nurul; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Chowdhury, Hafizur; Mooney, Meghan D; Rampatige, Rasika; Remolador, Hazel; Sanvictores, Diozele; Serina, Peter T; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Tallo, Veronica; Murray, Christopher J L; Hernandez, Bernardo; Lopez, Alan D; Riley, Ian Douglas

2018-02-01

There is increasing interest in using verbal autopsy to produce nationally representative population-level estimates of causes of death. However, the burden of processing a large quantity of surveys collected with paper and pencil has been a barrier to scaling up verbal autopsy surveillance. Direct electronic data capture has been used in other large-scale surveys and can be used in verbal autopsy as well, to reduce time and cost of going from collected data to actionable information. We collected verbal autopsy interviews using paper and pencil and using electronic tablets at two sites, and measured the cost and time required to process the surveys for analysis. From these cost and time data, we extrapolated costs associated with conducting large-scale surveillance with verbal autopsy. We found that the median time between data collection and data entry for surveys collected on paper and pencil was approximately 3 months. For surveys collected on electronic tablets, this was less than 2 days. For small-scale surveys, we found that the upfront costs of purchasing electronic tablets was the primary cost and resulted in a higher total cost. For large-scale surveys, the costs associated with data entry exceeded the cost of the tablets, so electronic data capture provides both a quicker and cheaper method of data collection. As countries increase verbal autopsy surveillance, it is important to consider the best way to design sustainable systems for data collection. Electronic data capture has the potential to greatly reduce the time and costs associated with data collection. For long-term, large-scale surveillance required by national vital statistical systems, electronic data capture reduces costs and allows data to be available sooner.

Scaled lattice fermion fields, stability bounds, and regularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Carroll, Michael; Faria da Veiga, Paulo A.

2018-02-01

We consider locally gauge-invariant lattice quantum field theory models with locally scaled Wilson-Fermi fields in d = 1, 2, 3, 4 spacetime dimensions. The use of scaled fermions preserves Osterwalder-Seiler positivity and the spectral content of the models (the decay rates of correlations are unchanged in the infinite lattice). In addition, it also results in less singular, more regular behavior in the continuum limit. Precisely, we treat general fermionic gauge and purely fermionic lattice models in an imaginary-time functional integral formulation. Starting with a hypercubic finite lattice Λ ⊂(aZ ) d, a ∈ (0, 1], and considering the partition function of non-Abelian and Abelian gauge models (the free fermion case is included) neglecting the pure gauge interactions, we obtain stability bounds uniformly in the lattice spacing a ∈ (0, 1]. These bounds imply, at least in the subsequential sense, the existence of the thermodynamic (Λ ↗ (aZ ) d) and the continuum (a ↘ 0) limits. Specializing to the U(1) gauge group, the known non-intersecting loop expansion for the d = 2 partition function is extended to d = 3 and the thermodynamic limit of the free energy is shown to exist with a bound independent of a ∈ (0, 1]. In the case of scaled free Fermi fields (corresponding to a trivial gauge group with only the identity element), spectral representations are obtained for the partition function, free energy, and correlations. The thermodynamic and continuum limits of the free fermion free energy are shown to exist. The thermodynamic limit of n-point correlations also exist with bounds independent of the point locations and a ∈ (0, 1], and with no n! dependence. Also, a time-zero Hilbert-Fock space is constructed, as well as time-zero, spatially pointwise scaled fermion creation operators which are shown to be norm bounded uniformly in a ∈ (0, 1]. The use of our scaled fields since the beginning allows us to extract and isolate the singularities of the free energy when a ↘ 0.

Settling of hot particles through turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coletti, Filippo; Frankel, Ari; Pouransari, Hadi; Mani, Ali

2014-11-01

Particle-laden flows in which the dispersed phase is not isothermal with the continuous phase are common in a wealth of natural and industrial setting. In this study we consider the case of inertial particles heated by thermal radiation while settling through a turbulent transparent gas. Particles much smaller than the minimum flow scales are considered. The particle Stokes number (based on the Kolmogorov time scale) and the nominal settling velocity (normalized by the root-mean-square fluid velocity fluctuation) are both of order unity. In the considered dilute and optically thin regime, each particle receives the same heat flux. Numerical simulations are performed in which the two-way coupling between dispersed and continuous phase is taken into account. The momentum and energy equations are solved in a triply periodic domain, resolving all spatial and temporal scales. While falling, the heated particles shed plumes of buoyant gas, modifying the turbulence structure and enhancing velocity fluctuations in the vertical direction. The radiative forcing does not affect preferential concentration (clustering of particles in low vorticity regions), but reduces preferential sweeping (particle sampling regions of downward fluid motion). Overall, the mean settling velocity varies slightly when heating the particles, while its variance is greatly increased. We gratefully acknowledges support from DOE PSAAP II program.

Optimal dynamic voltage scaling for wireless sensor nodes with real-time constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassandras, Christos G.; Zhuang, Shixin

2005-11-01

Sensors are increasingly embedded in manufacturing systems and wirelessly networked to monitor and manage operations ranging from process and inventory control to tracking equipment and even post-manufacturing product monitoring. In building such sensor networks, a critical issue is the limited and hard to replenish energy in the devices involved. Dynamic voltage scaling is a technique that controls the operating voltage of a processor to provide desired performance while conserving energy and prolonging the overall network's lifetime. We consider such power-limited devices processing time-critical tasks which are non-preemptive, aperiodic and have uncertain arrival times. We treat voltage scaling as a dynamic optimization problem whose objective is to minimize energy consumption subject to hard or soft real-time execution constraints. In the case of hard constraints, we build on prior work (which engages a voltage scaling controller at task completion times) by developing an intra-task controller that acts at all arrival times of incoming tasks. We show that this optimization problem can be decomposed into two simpler ones whose solution leads to an algorithm that does not actually require solving any nonlinear programming problems. In the case of soft constraints, this decomposition must be partly relaxed, but it still leads to a scalable (linear in the number of tasks) algorithm. Simulation results are provided to illustrate performance improvements in systems with intra-task controllers compared to uncontrolled systems or those using inter-task control.

Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, C.; Costa, A.; Cuerva, A.

2010-09-01

Since nowadays wind energy can't be neither scheduled nor large-scale storaged, wind power forecasting has been useful to minimize the impact of wind fluctuations. In particular, short-term forecasting (characterised by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days) is currently required by energy producers (in a daily electricity market context) and the TSO's (in order to keep the stability/balance of an electrical system). Within the short-term background, time-series based models (i.e., statistical models) have shown a better performance than NWP models for horizons up to few hours. These models try to learn and replicate the dynamic shown by the time series of a certain variable. When considering the power output of wind farms, ramp events are usually observed, being characterized by a large positive gradient in the time series (ramp-up) or negative (ramp-down) during relatively short time periods (few hours). Ramp events may be motivated by many different causes, involving generally several spatial scales, since the large scale (fronts, low pressure systems) up to the local scale (wind turbine shut-down due to high wind speed, yaw misalignment due to fast changes of wind direction). Hence, the output power may show unexpected dynamics during ramp events depending on the underlying processes; consequently, traditional statistical models considering only one dynamic for the hole power time series may be inappropriate. This work proposes a Regime Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN). The RS-ANN model gathers as many ANN's as different dynamics considered (called regimes); a certain ANN is selected so as to predict the output power, depending on the current regime. The current regime is on-line updated based on a gradient criteria, regarding the past two values of the output power. 3 Regimes are established, concerning ramp events: ramp-up, ramp-down and no-ramp regime. In order to assess the skillness of the proposed RS-ANN model, a single-ANN model (without regime classification) is adopted as a reference model. Both models are evaluated in terms of Improvement over Persistence on the Mean Square Error basis (IoP%) when predicting horizons form 1 time-step to 5. The case of a wind farm located in the complex terrain of Alaiz (north of Spain) has been considered. Three years of available power output data with a hourly resolution have been employed: two years for training and validation of the model and the last year for assessing the accuracy. Results showed that the RS-ANN overcame the single-ANN model for one step-ahead forecasts: the overall IoP% was up to 8.66% for the RS-ANN model (depending on the gradient criterion selected to consider the ramp regime triggered) and 6.16% for the single-ANN. However, both models showed similar accuracy for larger horizons. A locally-weighted evaluation during ramp events for one-step ahead was also performed. It was found that the IoP% during ramps-up increased from 17.60% (case of single-ANN) to 22.25% (case of RS-ANN); however, during the ramps-down events this improvement increased from 18.55% to 19.55%. Three main conclusions are derived from this case study: It highlights the importance of considering statistical models capable of differentiate several regimes showed by the output power time series in order to improve the forecasting during extreme events like ramps. On-line regime classification based on available power output data didn't seem to contribute to improve forecasts for horizons beyond one-step ahead. Tacking into account other explanatory variables (local wind measurements, NWP outputs) could lead to a better understanding of ramp events, improving the regime assessment also for further horizons. The RS-ANN model slightly overcame the single-ANN during ramp-down events. If further research reinforce this effect, special attention should be addressed to understand the underlying processes during ramp-down events.

Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis: A New Method for Analyzing Correlations in Complex System

PubMed Central

Yuan, Naiming; Fu, Zuntao; Zhang, Huan; Piao, Lin; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Juerg

2015-01-01

In this paper, a new method, detrended partial-cross-correlation analysis (DPCCA), is proposed. Based on detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), this method is improved by including partial-correlation technique, which can be applied to quantify the relations of two non-stationary signals (with influences of other signals removed) on different time scales. We illustrate the advantages of this method by performing two numerical tests. Test I shows the advantages of DPCCA in handling non-stationary signals, while Test II reveals the “intrinsic” relations between two considered time series with potential influences of other unconsidered signals removed. To further show the utility of DPCCA in natural complex systems, we provide new evidence on the winter-time Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the winter-time Nino3 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (Nino3-SSTA) affecting the Summer Rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (SRYR). By applying DPCCA, better significant correlations between SRYR and Nino3-SSTA on time scales of 6 ~ 8 years are found over the period 1951 ~ 2012, while significant correlations between SRYR and PDO on time scales of 35 years arise. With these physically explainable results, we have confidence that DPCCA is an useful method in addressing complex systems. PMID:25634341

Adaptive estimation of a time-varying phase with a power-law spectrum via continuous squeezed states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinani, Hossein T.; Berry, Dominic W.

2017-06-01

When measuring a time-varying phase, the standard quantum limit and Heisenberg limit as usually defined, for a constant phase, do not apply. If the phase has Gaussian statistics and a power-law spectrum 1 /|ω| p with p >1 , then the generalized standard quantum limit and Heisenberg limit have recently been found to have scalings of 1 /N(p -1 )/p and 1 /N2 (p -1 )/(p +1 ) , respectively, where N is the mean photon flux. We show that this Heisenberg scaling can be achieved via adaptive measurements on squeezed states. We predict the experimental parameters analytically, and test them with numerical simulations. Previous work had considered the special case of p =2 .

Origin of the asteroid belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherill, George W.

1989-01-01

Earlier and current concepts relevant to the origin of the asteroid belt are discussed and are considered in the framework of the solar system origin. Numerical and analytical solutions of the dynamical theory of planetesimal accumulation are characterized by bifurcations into runaway and nonrunaway solutions, and it is emphasized that the differences in time scales resulting from runaway and nonrunaway growth can be more important than conventional time scale differences determined by heliocentric distances. It is concluded that, in principle, it is possible to combine new calculations with previous work to formulate a theory of the asteroidal accumulation consistent with the meteoritic record and with work on the formation of terrestrial planets. Problems remaining to be addressed before a mature theory can be formulated are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Rumeng; Wang, Lifeng, E-mail: walfe@nuaa.edu.cn

The nonlinear thermal vibration behavior of a single-walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT) is investigated by molecular dynamics simulation and a nonlinear, nonplanar beam model. Whirling motion with energy transfer between flexural motions is found in the free vibration of the SWCNT excited by the thermal motion of atoms where the geometric nonlinearity is significant. A nonlinear, nonplanar beam model considering the coupling in two vertical vibrational directions is presented to explain the whirling motion of the SWCNT. Energy in different vibrational modes is not equal even over a time scale of tens of nanoseconds, which is much larger than the periodmore » of fundamental natural vibration of the SWCNT at equilibrium state. The energy of different modes becomes equal when the time scale increases to the microsecond range.« less

Rapid variability, dying pulse trains and black holes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoeger, W. R.

1980-01-01

After reviewing the general model and arguments by which rapid temporal variability and quasi-periodicities are considered indicative of a compact source's possible black hole character, the paper presents a scenario for 'dying pulse trains'. These originate inside the inner edge of accretion disks encircling black holes from accreting flares or other self-luminous entities executing their final few revolutions before reaching the event horizon. Confirmed detection of such phenomena with time scales in the range 0.01 (M/solar mass) to 0.5 (M/solar mass)ms, where M is the mass of the compact source, would provide much better support for its black hole candidacy. Variability on time-scales larger than this by itself places few constraints on the nature of the compact object.

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

Rayleigh convective instability in a cloud medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shmerlin, B. Ya.; Shmerlin, M. B.

2017-09-01

The problem of convective instability of an atmospheric layer containing a horizontally finite region filled with a cloud medium is considered. Solutions exponentially growing with time, i.e., solitary cloud rolls or spatially localized systems of cloud rolls, have been constructed. In the case of axial symmetry, their analogs are convective vortices with both ascending and descending motions on the axis and cloud clusters with ring-shaped convective structures. Depending on the anisotropy of turbulent exchange, the scale of vortices changes from the tornado scale to the scale of tropical cyclones. The solutions with descending motions on the axis can correspond to the formation of a tornado funnel or a hurricane eye in tropical cyclones.

Diffusion in random networks

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Duan Z.; Padrino, Juan C.

2017-06-01

The ensemble averaging technique is applied to model mass transport by diffusion in random networks. The system consists of an ensemble of random networks, where each network is made of pockets connected by tortuous channels. Inside a channel, fluid transport is assumed to be governed by the one-dimensional diffusion equation. Mass balance leads to an integro-differential equation for the pocket mass density. The so-called dual-porosity model is found to be equivalent to the leading order approximation of the integration kernel when the diffusion time scale inside the channels is small compared to the macroscopic time scale. As a test problem,more » we consider the one-dimensional mass diffusion in a semi-infinite domain. Because of the required time to establish the linear concentration profile inside a channel, for early times the similarity variable is xt $-$1/4 rather than xt $-$1/2 as in the traditional theory. We found this early time similarity can be explained by random walk theory through the network.« less

Memory and betweenness preference in temporal networks induced from time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Tongfeng; Zhang, Jie; Small, Michael; Zheng, Rui; Hui, Pan

2017-02-01

We construct temporal networks from time series via unfolding the temporal information into an additional topological dimension of the networks. Thus, we are able to introduce memory entropy analysis to unravel the memory effect within the considered signal. We find distinct patterns in the entropy growth rate of the aggregate network at different memory scales for time series with different dynamics ranging from white noise, 1/f noise, autoregressive process, periodic to chaotic dynamics. Interestingly, for a chaotic time series, an exponential scaling emerges in the memory entropy analysis. We demonstrate that the memory exponent can successfully characterize bifurcation phenomenon, and differentiate the human cardiac system in healthy and pathological states. Moreover, we show that the betweenness preference analysis of these temporal networks can further characterize dynamical systems and separate distinct electrocardiogram recordings. Our work explores the memory effect and betweenness preference in temporal networks constructed from time series data, providing a new perspective to understand the underlying dynamical systems.

What is the Anthropocene?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edwards, Lucy E.

2015-01-01

So far, however, the term “Anthropocene” has not been integrated into the official Geologic Time Scale, which geologists use to divide the past into named blocks based on the rock record. In 2016 or thereabouts, the International Commission on Stratigraphy—the scientific body that maintains the official Geologic Time Scale—will consider a proposal to formalize a definition of this term. It’s a decision that has both semantic and scientific implications and may have legal implications as well.

Some dynamical aspects of interacting quintessence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Binayak S.; Mondal, Himadri Shekhar; Chatterjee, Devosmita

2018-04-01

In this paper, we consider a particular form of coupling, namely B=σ (\\dot{ρ _m}-\\dot{ρ _φ }) in spatially flat (k=0) Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) space-time. We perform phase-space analysis for this interacting quintessence (dark energy) and dark matter model for different numerical values of parameters. We also show the phase-space analysis for the `best-fit Universe' or concordance model. In our analysis, we observe the existence of late-time scaling attractors.

A Multiscale Software Tool for Field/Circuit Co-Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-15

technology fields: Number of graduating undergraduates who achieved a 3.5 GPA to 4.0 (4.0 max scale): Number of graduating undergraduates funded by a...times more efficient than FDTD for such a problem in 3D . The techniques in class (c) above include the discontinuous Galerkin method and multidomain...implements a finite-differential-time-domain method on single field propagation in a 3D space. We consider a cavity model which includes two electric

Time functions of deep earthquakes from broadband and short-period stacks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houston, H.; Benz, H.M.; Vidale, J.E.

1998-01-01

To constrain dynamic source properties of deep earthquakes, we have systematically constructed broadband time functions of deep earthquakes by stacking and scaling teleseismic P waves from U.S. National Seismic Network, TERRAscope, and Berkeley Digital Seismic Network broadband stations. We examined 42 earthquakes with depths from 100 to 660 km that occurred between July 1, 1992 and July 31, 1995. To directly compare time functions, or to group them by size, depth, or region, it is essential to scale them to remove the effect of moment, which varies by more than 3 orders of magnitude for these events. For each event we also computed short-period stacks of P waves recorded by west coast regional arrays. The comparison of broadband with short-period stacks yields a considerable advantage, enabling more reliable measurement of event duration. A more accurate estimate of the duration better constrains the scaling procedure to remove the effect of moment, producing scaled time functions with both correct timing and amplitude. We find only subtle differences in the broadband time-function shape with moment, indicating successful scaling and minimal effects of attenuation at the periods considered here. The average shape of the envelopes of the short-period stacks is very similar to the average broadband time function. The main variations seen with depth are (1) a mild decrease in duration with increasing depth, (2) greater asymmetry in the time functions of intermediate events compared to deep ones, and (3) unexpected complexity and late moment release for events between 350 and 550 km, with seven of the eight events in that depth interval displaying markedly more complicated time functions with more moment release late in the rupture than most events above or below. The first two results are broadly consistent with our previous studies, while the third is reported here for the first time. The greater complexity between 350 and 550 km suggests greater heterogeneity in the failure process in that depth range. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.

Strain localisation in the continental lithosphere, a scale-dependent process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolivet, Laurent; Burov, Evguenii

2013-04-01

Strain localisation in continents is a general question tackled by specialists of various disciplines in Earth Sciences. Field geologists working at regional scale are able to describe the succession of events leading to the formation of large strain zones that accommodate large displacement within plate boundaries. On the other end of the spectrum, laboratory experiments provide numbers that quantitatively describe the rheology of rock material at the scale of a few mm and at deformation rates up to 8-10 orders of magnitude faster than in nature. Extrapolating from the scale of the experiment to the scale of the continental lithosphere is a considerable leap across 8-10 orders of magnitude both in space and time. It is however quite obvious that different processes are at work for each scale considered. At the scale of a grain aggregate diffusion within individual grains, dislocation or grain boundary sliding, depending on temperature and fluid conditions, are of primary importance. But at the scale of a mountain belt, a major detachment or a strike-slip shear zone that have accommodated tens or hundreds of kilometres of relative displacement, other parameters will take over such as structural softening and the heterogeneity of the crust inherited from past tectonic events that have juxtaposed rock units of very different compositions and induced a strong orientation of rocks. Once the deformation is localised along major shear zones, grain size reduction, interaction between rocks and fluids and metamorphic reactions and other small-scale processes tend to further localise the strain. Because the crust is colder and more lithologically complex this heterogeneity is likely much more prominent in the crust than in the mantle and then the relative importance of "small-scale" and "large-scale" parameters will be very different in the crust and in the mantle. Thus, depending upon the relative thickness of the crust and mantle in the deforming lithosphere, the role of each mechanism will have more or less important consequences on strain localisation. This complexity sometimes leads to disregard of experimental parameters in large-scale thermo-mechanical models and to use instead ad hoc "large-scale" numbers that better fit the observed geological history. The goal of the ERC RHEOLITH project is to associate to each tectonic process the relevant rheological parameters depending upon the scale considered, in an attempt to elaborate a generalized "Preliminary Rheology Model Set for Lithosphere" (PReMSL), which will cover the entire time and spatial scale range of deformation.

Hamiltonian General Relativity in Finite Space and Cosmological Potential Perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbashov, B. M.; Pervushin, V. N.; Zakharov, A. F.; Zinchuk, V. A.

The Hamiltonian formulation of general relativity is considered in finite space-time and a specific reference frame given by the diffeo-invariant components of the Fock simplex in terms of the Dirac-ADM variables. The evolution parameter and energy invariant with respect to the time-coordinate transformations are constructed by the separation of the cosmological scale factor a(x0) and its identification with the spatial averaging of the metric determinant, so that the dimension of the kinemetric group of diffeomorphisms coincides with the dimension of a set of variables whose velocities are removed by the Gauss-type constraints in accordance with the second Nöther theorem. This coincidence allows us to solve the energy constraint, fulfil Dirac's Hamiltonian reduction, and to describe the potential perturbations in terms of the Lichnerowicz scale-invariant variables distinguished by the absence of the time derivatives of the spatial metric determinant. It was shown that the Hamiltonian version of the cosmological perturbation theory acquires attributes of the theory of superfluid liquid, and it leads to a generalization of the Schwarzschild solution. The astrophysical application of this approach to general relativity is considered under supposition that the Dirac-ADM Hamiltonian frame is identified with that of the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation distinguished by its dipole component in the frame of an Earth observer.

Hot mill process parameters impacting on hot mill tertiary scale formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Jonathan Ian

For high end steel applications surface quality is paramount to deliver a suitable product. A major cause of surface quality issues is from the formation of tertiary scale. The scale formation depends on numerous factors such as thermo-mechanical processing routes, chemical composition, thickness and rolls used. This thesis utilises a collection of data mining techniques to better understand the influence of Hot Mill process parameters on scale formation at Port Talbot Hot Strip Mill in South Wales. The dataset to which these data mining techniques were applied was carefully chosen to reduce process variation. There are several main factors that were considered to minimise this variability including time period, grade and gauge investigated. The following data mining techniques were chosen to investigate this dataset: Partial Least Squares (PLS); Logit Analysis; Principle Component Analysis (PCA); Multinomial Logistical Regression (MLR); Adaptive Neuro Inference Fuzzy Systems (ANFIS). The analysis indicated that the most significant variable for scale formation is the temperature entering the finishing mill. If the temperature is controlled on entering the finishing mill scale will not be formed. Values greater than 1070 °C for the average Roughing Mill and above 1050 °C for the average Crop Shear temperature are considered high, with values greater than this increasing the chance of scale formation. As the temperature increases more scale suppression measures are required to limit scale formation, with high temperatures more likely to generate a greater amount of scale even with fully functional scale suppression systems in place. Chemistry is also a significant factor in scale formation, with Phosphorus being the most significant of the chemistry variables. It is recommended that the chemistry specification for Phosphorus be limited to a maximum value of 0.015 % rather than 0.020 % to limit scale formation. Slabs with higher values should be treated with particular care when being processed through the Hot Mill to limit scale formation.

Time-dependent shock acceleration of particles. Effect of the time-dependent injection, with application to supernova remnants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petruk, O.; Kopytko, B.

2016-11-01

Three approaches are considered to solve the equation which describes the time-dependent diffusive shock acceleration of test particles at the non-relativistic shocks. At first, the solution of Drury for the particle distribution function at the shock is generalized to any relation between the acceleration time-scales upstream and downstream and for the time-dependent injection efficiency. Three alternative solutions for the spatial dependence of the distribution function are derived. Then, the two other approaches to solve the time-dependent equation are presented, one of which does not require the Laplace transform. At the end, our more general solution is discussed, with a particular attention to the time-dependent injection in supernova remnants. It is shown that, comparing to the case with the dominant upstream acceleration time-scale, the maximum momentum of accelerated particles shifts towards the smaller momenta with increase of the downstream acceleration time-scale. The time-dependent injection affects the shape of the particle spectrum. In particular, (I) the power-law index is not solely determined by the shock compression, in contrast to the stationary solution; (II) the larger the injection efficiency during the first decades after the supernova explosion, the harder the particle spectrum around the high-energy cutoff at the later times. This is important, in particular, for interpretation of the radio and gamma-ray observations of supernova remnants, as demonstrated on a number of examples.

Biophysical basis for the geometry of conical stromatolites.

PubMed

Petroff, Alexander P; Sim, Min Sub; Maslov, Andrey; Krupenin, Mikhail; Rothman, Daniel H; Bosak, Tanja

2010-06-01

Stromatolites may be Earth's oldest macroscopic fossils; however, it remains controversial what, if any, biological processes are recorded in their morphology. Although the biological interpretation of many stromatolite morphologies is confounded by the influence of sedimentation, conical stromatolites form in the absence of sedimentation and are, therefore, considered to be the most robust records of biophysical processes. A qualitative similarity between conical stromatolites and some modern microbial mats suggests a photosynthetic origin for ancient stromatolites. To better understand and interpret ancient fossils, we seek a quantitative relationship between the geometry of conical stromatolites and the biophysical processes that control their growth. We note that all modern conical stromatolites and many that formed in the last 2.8 billion years display a characteristic centimeter-scale spacing between neighboring structures. To understand this prominent-but hitherto uninterpreted-organization, we consider the role of diffusion in mediating competition between stromatolites. Having confirmed this model through laboratory experiments and field observation, we find that organization of a field of stromatolites is set by a diffusive time scale over which individual structures compete for nutrients, thus linking form to physiology. The centimeter-scale spacing between modern and ancient stromatolites corresponds to a rhythmically fluctuating metabolism with a period of approximately 20 hr. The correspondence between the observed spacing and the day length provides quantitative support for the photosynthetic origin of conical stromatolites throughout geologic time.

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2009-08-15

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements model. The results of mathematical simulations of real scale fire engulfment scenarios that may follow accidents involving LPG tankers proved the effectiveness of the thermal protections in preventing the "fired" BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) scenario. The presence of a thermal coating greatly increases the "time to failure", providing a time lapse that in the European experience may be considered sufficient to allow the start of effective mitigation actions by fire brigades. The results obtained were used to calculate the expected reduction of individual and societal risk due to LPG transportation in real case scenarios. The analysis confirmed that the introduction of passive fire protections turns out in a significant reduction of risk, up to an order of magnitude in the case of individual risk and of about 50% if the expectation value is considered. Thus, the adoption of passive fire protections, not compulsory in European regulations, may be an effective technical measure for risk reduction, and may contribute to achieve the control of "major accidents hazards" cited by the European legislation.

A space-time multifractal analysis on radar rainfall sequences from central Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licznar, Paweł; Deidda, Roberto

2014-05-01

Rainfall downscaling belongs to most important tasks of modern hydrology. Especially from the perspective of urban hydrology there is real need for development of practical tools for possible rainfall scenarios generation. Rainfall scenarios of fine temporal scale reaching single minutes are indispensable as inputs for hydrological models. Assumption of probabilistic philosophy of drainage systems design and functioning leads to widespread application of hydrodynamic models in engineering practice. However models like these covering large areas could not be supplied with only uncorrelated point-rainfall time series. They should be rather supplied with space time rainfall scenarios displaying statistical properties of local natural rainfall fields. Implementation of a Space-Time Rainfall (STRAIN) model for hydrometeorological applications in Polish conditions, such as rainfall downscaling from the large scales of meteorological models to the scale of interest for rainfall-runoff processes is the long-distance aim of our research. As an introduction part of our study we verify the veracity of the following STRAIN model assumptions: rainfall fields are isotropic and statistically homogeneous in space; self-similarity holds (so that, after having rescaled the time by the advection velocity, rainfall is a fully homogeneous and isotropic process in the space-time domain); statistical properties of rainfall are characterized by an "a priori" known multifractal behavior. We conduct a space-time multifractal analysis on radar rainfall sequences selected from the Polish national radar system POLRAD. Radar rainfall sequences covering the area of 256 km x 256 km of original 2 km x 2 km spatial resolution and 15 minutes temporal resolution are used as study material. Attention is mainly focused on most severe summer convective rainfalls. It is shown that space-time rainfall can be considered with a good approximation to be a self-similar multifractal process. Multifractal analysis is carried out assuming Taylor's hypothesis to hold and the advection velocity needed to rescale the time dimension is assumed to be equal about 16 km/h. This assumption is verified by the analysis of autocorrelation functions along the x and y directions of "rainfall cubes" and along the time axis rescaled with assumed advection velocity. In general for analyzed rainfall sequences scaling is observed for spatial scales ranging from 4 to 256 km and for timescales from 15 min to 16 hours. However in most cases scaling break is identified for spatial scales between 4 and 8, corresponding to spatial dimensions of 16 km to 32 km. It is assumed that the scaling break occurrence at these particular scales in central Poland conditions could be at least partly explained by the rainfall mesoscale gap (on the edge of meso-gamma, storm-scale and meso-beta scale).

Evaluation of changes in periodontal bacteria in healthy dogs over 6 months using quantitative real-time PCR.

PubMed

Maruyama, N; Mori, A; Shono, S; Oda, H; Sako, T

2018-03-01

Porphyromonas gulae, Tannerella forsythia and Campylobacter rectus are considered dominant periodontal pathogens in dogs. Recently, quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) methods have been used for absolute quantitative determination of oral bacterial counts. The purpose of the present study was to establish a standardized qRT-PCR procedure to quantify bacterial counts of the three target periodontal bacteria (P. gulae, T. forsythia and C. rectus). Copy numbers of the three target periodontal bacteria were evaluated in 26 healthy dogs. Then, changes in bacterial counts of the three target periodontal bacteria were evaluated for 24 weeks in 7 healthy dogs after periodontal scaling. Analytical evaluation of each self-designed primer indicated acceptable analytical imprecision. All 26 healthy dogs were found to be positive for P. gulae, T. forsythia and C. rectus. Median total bacterial counts (copies/ng) of each target genes were 385.612 for P. gulae, 25.109 for T. forsythia and 5.771 for C. rectus. Significant differences were observed between the copy numbers of the three target periodontal bacteria. Periodontal scaling reduced median copy numbers of the three target periodontal bacteria in 7 healthy dogs. However, after periodontal scaling, copy numbers of all three periodontal bacteria significantly increased over time (p<0.05, Kruskal-Wallis test) (24 weeks). In conclusion, our results demonstrated that qRT-PCR can accurately measure periodontal bacteria in dogs. Furthermore, the present study has revealed that qRT-PCR method can be considered as a new objective evaluation system for canine periodontal disease. Copyright© by the Polish Academy of Sciences.

Multi-time-scale heat transfer modeling of turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations.

PubMed

Kim, Kyunghan; Guo, Zhixiong

2007-05-01

A combined hyperbolic radiation and conduction heat transfer model is developed to simulate multi-time-scale heat transfer in turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations. An initial temperature response of a tissue to an ultrashort pulse irradiation is analyzed by the volume-average method in combination with the transient discrete ordinates method for modeling the ultrafast radiation heat transfer. This response is found to reach pseudo steady state within 1 ns for the considered tissues. The single pulse result is then utilized to obtain the temperature response to pulse train irradiation at the microsecond/millisecond time scales. After that, the temperature field is predicted by the hyperbolic heat conduction model which is solved by the MacCormack's scheme with error terms correction. Finally, the hyperbolic conduction is compared with the traditional parabolic heat diffusion model. It is found that the maximum local temperatures are larger in the hyperbolic prediction than the parabolic prediction. In the modeled dermis tissue, a 7% non-dimensional temperature increase is found. After about 10 thermal relaxation times, thermal waves fade away and the predictions between the hyperbolic and parabolic models are consistent.

Analysis of Scattering from Archival Pulsar Data using a CLEAN-based Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, -Wei, Jr.; Simonetti, John H.; Kavic, Michael

2017-02-01

In this work, we adopted a CLEAN-based method to determine the scatter time, τ, from archived pulsar profiles under both the thin screen and uniform medium scattering models and to calculate the scatter time frequency scale index α, where τ \\propto {ν }α . The value of α is -4.4, if a Kolmogorov spectrum of the interstellar medium turbulence is assumed. We deconvolved 1342 profiles from 347 pulsars over a broad range of frequencies and dispersion measures. In our survey, in the majority of cases the scattering effect was not significant compared to pulse profile widths. For a subset of 21 pulsars scattering at the lowest frequencies was large enough to be measured. Because reliable scatter time measurements were determined only for the lowest frequency, we were limited to using upper limits on scatter times at higher frequencies for the purpose of our scatter time frequency slope estimation. We scaled the deconvolved scatter time to 1 GHz assuming α =-4.4 and considered our results in the context of other observations which yielded a broad relation between scatter time and dispersion measure.

Using Landslide Failure Forecast Models in Near Real Time: the Mt. de La Saxe case-study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manconi, Andrea; Giordan, Daniele

2014-05-01

Forecasting the occurrence of landslide phenomena in space and time is a major scientific challenge. The approaches used to forecast landslides mainly depend on the spatial scale analyzed (regional vs. local), the temporal range of forecast (long- vs. short-term), as well as the triggering factor and the landslide typology considered. By focusing on short-term forecast methods for large, deep seated slope instabilities, the potential time of failure (ToF) can be estimated by studying the evolution of the landslide deformation over time (i.e., strain rate) provided that, under constant stress conditions, landslide materials follow creep mechanism before reaching rupture. In the last decades, different procedures have been proposed to estimate ToF by considering simplified empirical and/or graphical methods applied to time series of deformation data. Fukuzono, 1985 proposed a failure forecast method based on the experience performed during large scale laboratory experiments, which were aimed at observing the kinematic evolution of a landslide induced by rain. This approach, known also as the inverse-velocity method, considers the evolution over time of the inverse value of the surface velocity (v) as an indicator of the ToF, by assuming that failure approaches while 1/v tends to zero. Here we present an innovative method to aimed at achieving failure forecast of landslide phenomena by considering near-real-time monitoring data. Starting from the inverse velocity theory, we analyze landslide surface displacements on different temporal windows, and then apply straightforward statistical methods to obtain confidence intervals on the time of failure. Our results can be relevant to support the management of early warning systems during landslide emergency conditions, also when the predefined displacement and/or velocity thresholds are exceeded. In addition, our statistical approach for the definition of confidence interval and forecast reliability can be applied also to different failure forecast methods. We applied for the first time the herein presented approach in near real time during the emergency scenario relevant to the reactivation of the La Saxe rockslide, a large mass wasting menacing the population of Courmayeur, northern Italy, and the important European route E25. We show how the application of simplified but robust forecast models can be a convenient method to manage and support early warning systems during critical situations. References: Fukuzono T. (1985), A New Method for Predicting the Failure Time of a Slope, Proc. IVth International Conference and Field Workshop on Landslides, Tokyo.

One-year symptom trajectories in patients with stable schizophrenia maintained on antipsychotics versus placebo: meta-analysis.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Hiroyoshi; Kantor, Navot; Sanches, Marcos; Fervaha, Gagan; Agid, Ofer; Remington, Gary

2017-09-01

Background As definitions of relapse differ substantially between studies, in investigations involving data aggregation, total scores on clinical rating scales provide a more generalisable outcome. Aims To compare total symptom trajectories for antipsychotic versus placebo treatment over a 1-year period of maintenance treatment in schizophrenia. Method Randomised controlled trials with antipsychotic and placebo treatment arms in patients with stable schizophrenia that reported Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale total scores at more than one time point were included. Meta-regression analyses were employed using a mixed model. Results A total of 11 studies involving 2826 patients were included. Meta-regression analyses revealed significant interactions between group and time ( PS <0.0001); both standardised total scores and per cent score changes remained almost unchanged in patients continuing antipsychotic treatment, whereas symptoms continuously worsened over time in those switching to placebo treatment. Conclusions When considering long-term antipsychotic treatment of schizophrenia, clinicians must balance symptomatic and functional outcomes. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.

Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busuioc, A.; Storch, H. von; Schnur, R.

Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). Themore » climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in time-slice mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 x CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.« less

Predicting the cosmological constant with the scale-factor cutoff measure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Simone, Andrea; Guth, Alan H.; Salem, Michael P.

2008-09-15

It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant {lambda} gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of {lambda} depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. A very promising method of regulation uses a scale-factor cutoff, which avoids a number of serious problems that arise in other approaches. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff avoids the 'youngness problem' (high probability of living in a much younger universe) and the 'Q and G catastrophes'more » (high probability for the primordial density contrast Q and gravitational constant G to have extremely large or small values). We apply the scale-factor cutoff measure to the probability distribution of {lambda}, considering both positive and negative values. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of {lambda} that are more than about 10 times the observed value. We also discuss qualitatively the prediction for the density parameter {omega}, indicating that with this measure there is a possibility of detectable negative curvature.« less

Space, Time, History: The Reassertion of Space in Social Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Michael A.; Kessl, Fabian

2009-01-01

The reassertion of space is discussed as an analytical awareness of the past obsession with temporal logics. Theorists now understand that social sciences discourses were shaped by a preoccupation with the temporal scales and logics of development considered as natural processes. The spatial turn in social theory is often seen to be a process of…

Origins and scales of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf: importance of seasonal plankton dynamics and river nutrients and discharge

EPA Science Inventory

Management plans for the Mississippi River Basin call for reductions in nutrient concentrations up to 40% or more to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), while at the same time the government is considering new farm subsidies to promote development of biofuels from corn. T...

The Vision Is Set, Now Help Chronicle the Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodin, Terry; Feser, Jason; Herrera, Jose

2012-01-01

The Vision and Change effort to explore and implement needed changes in undergraduate biology education has been ongoing since 2006. It is now time to take stock of changes that have occurred at the faculty and single-course levels, and to consider how to accomplish the larger-scale changes needed at departmental and institutional levels. This…

Applied general relativity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashby, Neil

1989-01-01

Important relativistic effects and issues are discussed which must be considered in the interpretation of current measurements such as ranging measurements to LAGEOS and to the moon, in the implementation of the Global Positioning System, in the synchronization of clocks near the earth's surface, and in the adoption of appropriate scales of time and length for the communication of scientific results.

Simple photometer circuits using modular electronic components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wampler, J. E.

1975-01-01

Operational and peak holding amplifiers are discussed as useful circuits for bioluminescence assays. Circuit diagrams are provided. While analog methods can give a good integration on short time scales, digital methods were found best for long term integration in bioluminescence assays. Power supplies, a general photometer circuit with ratio capability, and variations in the basic photometer design are also considered.

Scaling Behavior of Firm Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, Michael H. R.; Nunes Amaral, Luis A.; Buldyrev, Sergey V.; Havlin, Shlomo; Leschhorn, Heiko; Maass, Philipp; Salinger, Michael A.; Stanley, H. Eugene

1996-03-01

The theory of the firm is of considerable interest in economics. The standard microeconomic theory of the firm is largely a static model and has thus proved unsatisfactory for addressing inherently dynamic issues such as the growth of economies. In recent years, many have attempted to develop richer models that provide a more accurate representation of firm dynamics due to learning, innovative effort, and the development of organizational infrastructure. The validity of these new, inherently dynamic theories depends on their consistency with the statistical properties of firm growth, e.g. the relationship between growth rates and firm size. Using the Compustat database over the time period 1975-1991, we find: (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for firms with approximately the same sales displays an exponential form with the logarithm of growth rate, and (ii) the fluctuations in the growth rates --- measured by the width of this distribution --- scale as a power law with the firm sales. We place these findings of scaling behavior in the context of conventional economics by considering firm growth dynamics with temporal correlations and also, by considering a hierarchical organization of the departments of a firm.

Optimal satellite sampling to resolve global-scale dynamics in the I-T system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, D. E.; Zesta, E.; Connor, H. K.; Pfaff, R. F., Jr.

2016-12-01

The recent Decadal Survey highlighted the need for multipoint measurements of ion-neutral coupling processes to study the pathways by which solar wind energy drives dynamics in the I-T system. The emphasis in the Decadal Survey is on global-scale dynamics and processes, and in particular, mission concepts making use of multiple identical spacecraft in low earth orbit were considered for the GDC and DYNAMIC missions. This presentation will provide quantitative assessments of the optimal spacecraft sampling needed to significantly advance our knowledge of I-T dynamics on the global scale.We will examine storm time and quiet time conditions as simulated by global circulation models, and determine how well various candidate satellite constellations and satellite schemes can quantify the plasma and neutral convection patterns and global-scale distributions of plasma density, neutral density, and composition, and their response to changes in the IMF. While the global circulation models are data-starved, and do not contain all the physics that we might expect to observe with a global-scale constellation mission, they are nonetheless an excellent "starting point" for discussions of the implementation of such a mission. The result will be of great utility for the design of future missions, such as GDC, to study the global-scale dynamics of the I-T system.

Correlational signatures of time-reversal symmetry breaking in two-dimensional flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, Charlie; Ouellette, Nicholas

2015-11-01

Classical turbulence theories posit that broken spatial symmetries should be (statistically) restored at small scales. But since turbulent flows are inherently dissipative, time reversal symmetry is expected to remain broken throughout the cascade. However, the precise dynamical signature of this broken symmetry is not well understood. Recent work has shed new light on this fundamental question by considering the Lagrangian structure functions of power. Here, we take a somewhat different approach by studying the Lagrangian correlation functions of velocity and acceleration. We measured these correlations using particle tracking velocimetry in a quasi-two-dimensional electromagnetically driven flow that displayed net inverse energy transfer. We show that the correlation functions of the velocity and acceleration magnitudes are not symmetric in time, and that the degree of asymmetry can be related to the flux of energy between scales, suggesting that the asymmetry has a dynamical origin.

Cratering time scales for the Galilean satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shoemaker, E. M.; Wolfe, R. F.

1982-01-01

An attempt is made to estimate the present cratering rate for each Galilean satellite within the correct order of magnitude and to extend the cratering rates back into the geologic past on the basis of evidence from the earth-moon system. For collisions with long and short period comets, the magnitudes and size distributions of the comet nuclei, the distribution of their perihelion distances, and the completeness of discovery are addressed. The diameters and masses of cometary nuclei are assessed, as are crater diameters and cratering rates. The dynamical relations between long period and short period comets are discussed, and the population of Jupiter-crossing asteroids is assessed. Estimated present cratering rates on the Galilean satellites are compared and variations of cratering rate with time are considered. Finally, the consistency of derived cratering time scales with the cratering record of the icy Galilean satellites is discussed.

Dynamical tuning for MPC using population games: A water supply network application.

PubMed

Barreiro-Gomez, Julian; Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos; Quijano, Nicanor

2017-07-01

Model predictive control (MPC) is a suitable strategy for the control of large-scale systems that have multiple design requirements, e.g., multiple physical and operational constraints. Besides, an MPC controller is able to deal with multiple control objectives considering them within the cost function, which implies to determine a proper prioritization for each of the objectives. Furthermore, when the system has time-varying parameters and/or disturbances, the appropriate prioritization might vary along the time as well. This situation leads to the need of a dynamical tuning methodology. This paper addresses the dynamical tuning issue by using evolutionary game theory. The advantages of the proposed method are highlighted and tested over a large-scale water supply network with periodic time-varying disturbances. Finally, results are analyzed with respect to a multi-objective MPC controller that uses static tuning. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymptotics for moist deep convection I: refined scalings and self-sustaining updrafts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hittmeir, Sabine; Klein, Rupert

2018-04-01

Moist processes are among the most important drivers of atmospheric dynamics, and scale analysis and asymptotics are cornerstones of theoretical meteorology. Accounting for moist processes in systematic scale analyses therefore seems of considerable importance for the field. Klein and Majda (Theor Comput Fluid Dyn 20:525-551, 2006) proposed a scaling regime for the incorporation of moist bulk microphysics closures in multiscale asymptotic analyses of tropical deep convection. This regime is refined here to allow for mixtures of ideal gases and to establish consistency with a more general multiple scales modeling framework for atmospheric flows. Deep narrow updrafts, the so-called hot towers, constitute principal building blocks of larger scale storm systems. They are analyzed here in a sample application of the new scaling regime. A single quasi-one-dimensional upright columnar cloud is considered on the vertical advective (or tower life cycle) time scale. The refined asymptotic scaling regime is essential for this example as it reveals a new mechanism for the self-sustainance of such updrafts. Even for strongly positive convectively available potential energy, a vertical balance of buoyancy forces is found in the presence of precipitation. This balance induces a diagnostic equation for the vertical velocity, and it is responsible for the generation of self-sustained balanced updrafts. The time-dependent updraft structure is encoded in a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the precipitation mixing ratio. Numerical solutions of this equation suggest that the self-sustained updrafts may strongly enhance hot tower life cycles.

A new ionospheric storm scale based on TEC and foF2 statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Michi; Tsugawa, Takuya; Jin, Hidekatsu; Ishii, Mamoru

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose the I-scale, a new ionospheric storm scale for general users in various regions in the world. With the I-scale, ionospheric storms can be classified at any season, local time, and location. Since the ionospheric condition largely depends on many factors such as solar irradiance, energy input from the magnetosphere, and lower atmospheric activity, it had been difficult to scale ionospheric storms, which are mainly caused by solar and geomagnetic activities. In this study, statistical analysis was carried out for total electron content (TEC) and F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) in Japan for 18 years from 1997 to 2014. Seasonal, local time, and latitudinal dependences of TEC and foF2 variabilities are excluded by normalizing each percentage variation using their statistical standard deviations. The I-scale is defined by setting thresholds to the normalized numbers to seven categories: I0, IP1, IP2, IP3, IN1, IN2, and IN3. I0 represents a quiet state, and IP1 (IN1), IP2 (IN2), and IP3 (IN3) represent moderate, strong, and severe positive (negative) storms, respectively. The proposed I-scale can be used for other locations, such as polar and equatorial regions. It is considered that the proposed I-scale can be a standardized scale to help the users to assess the impact of space weather on their systems.

Reynolds number trend of hierarchies and scale interactions in turbulent boundary layers.

PubMed

Baars, W J; Hutchins, N; Marusic, I

2017-03-13

Small-scale velocity fluctuations in turbulent boundary layers are often coupled with the larger-scale motions. Studying the nature and extent of this scale interaction allows for a statistically representative description of the small scales over a time scale of the larger, coherent scales. In this study, we consider temporal data from hot-wire anemometry at Reynolds numbers ranging from Re τ ≈2800 to 22 800, in order to reveal how the scale interaction varies with Reynolds number. Large-scale conditional views of the representative amplitude and frequency of the small-scale turbulence, relative to the large-scale features, complement the existing consensus on large-scale modulation of the small-scale dynamics in the near-wall region. Modulation is a type of scale interaction, where the amplitude of the small-scale fluctuations is continuously proportional to the near-wall footprint of the large-scale velocity fluctuations. Aside from this amplitude modulation phenomenon, we reveal the influence of the large-scale motions on the characteristic frequency of the small scales, known as frequency modulation. From the wall-normal trends in the conditional averages of the small-scale properties, it is revealed how the near-wall modulation transitions to an intermittent-type scale arrangement in the log-region. On average, the amplitude of the small-scale velocity fluctuations only deviates from its mean value in a confined temporal domain, the duration of which is fixed in terms of the local Taylor time scale. These concentrated temporal regions are centred on the internal shear layers of the large-scale uniform momentum zones, which exhibit regions of positive and negative streamwise velocity fluctuations. With an increasing scale separation at high Reynolds numbers, this interaction pattern encompasses the features found in studies on internal shear layers and concentrated vorticity fluctuations in high-Reynolds-number wall turbulence.This article is part of the themed issue 'Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Optimal Transient Growth of Submesoscale Baroclinic Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Brian; Zemskova, Varvara; Passaggia, Pierre-Yves

2016-11-01

Submesoscale instabilities are analyzed using a transient growth approach to determine the optimal perturbation for a rotating Boussinesq fluid subject to baroclinic instabilities. We consider a base flow with uniform shear and stratification and consider the non-normal evolution over finite-time horizons of linear perturbations in an ageostrophic, non-hydrostatic regime. Stone (1966, 1971) showed that the stability of the base flow to normal modes depends on the Rossby and Richardson numbers, with instabilities ranging from geostrophic (Ro -> 0) and ageostrophic (finite Ro) baroclinic modes to symmetric (Ri < 1 , Ro > 1) and Kelvin-Helmholtz (Ri < 1 / 4) modes. Non-normal transient growth, initiated by localized optimal wave packets, represents a faster mechanism for the growth of perturbations and may provide an energetic link between large-scale flows in geostrophic balance and dissipation scales via submesoscale instabilities. Here we consider two- and three-dimensional optimal perturbations by means of direct-adjoint iterations of the linearized Boussinesq Navier-Stokes equations to determine the form of the optimal perturbation, the optimal energy gain, and the characteristics of the most unstable perturbation.

Statistical and dynamical properties of a dissipative kicked rotator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Diego F. M.; Leonel, Edson D.

2014-11-01

Some dynamical and statistical properties for a conservative as well as the dissipative problem of relativistic particles in a waveguide are considered. For the first time, two different types of dissipation namely: (i) due to viscosity and; (ii) due to inelastic collision (upon the kick) are considered individually and acting together. For the first case, and contrary to what is expected for the original Zaslavsky’s relativistic model, we show there is a critical parameter where a transition from local to global chaos occurs. On the other hand, after considering the introduction of dissipation also on the kick, the structure of the phase space changes in the sense that chaotic and periodic attractors appear. We study also the chaotic sea by using scaling arguments and we proposed an analytical argument to reinforce the validity of the scaling exponents obtained numerically. In principle such an approach can be extended to any two-dimensional map. Finally, based on the Lyapunov exponent, we show that the parameter space exhibits infinite families of self-similar shrimp-shape structures, corresponding to periodic attractors, embedded in a large region corresponding to chaotic attractors.

Bias correction of satellite-based rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-04-01

Limitation in hydro-meteorological data availability in many catchments limits the possibility of reliable hydrological analyses especially for near-real-time predictions. However, the variety of satellite based and meteorological model products for rainfall provides new opportunities. Often times the accuracy of these rainfall products, when compared to rain gauge measurements, is not impressive. The systematic differences of these rainfall products from gauge observations can be partially compensated by adopting a bias (error) correction. Many of such methods correct the satellite based rainfall data by comparing their mean value to the mean value of rain gauge data. Refined approaches may also first find out a suitable time scale at which different data products are better comparable and then employ a bias correction at that time scale. More elegant methods use quantile-to-quantile bias correction, which however, assumes that the available (often limited) sample size can be useful in comparing probabilities of different rainfall products. Analysis of rainfall data and understanding of the process of its generation reveals that the bias in different rainfall data varies in space and time. The time aspect is sometimes taken into account by considering the seasonality. In this research we have adopted a bias correction approach that takes into account the variation of rainfall in space and time. A clustering based approach is employed in which every new data point (e.g. of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)) is first assigned to a specific cluster of that data product and then, by identifying the corresponding cluster of gauge data, the bias correction specific to that cluster is adopted. The presented approach considers the space-time variation of rainfall and as a result the corrected data is more realistic. Keywords: bias correction, rainfall, TRMM, satellite rainfall

Floquet-Magnus theory and generic transient dynamics in periodically driven many-body quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwahara, Tomotaka; Mori, Takashi; Saito, Keiji

2016-04-01

This work explores a fundamental dynamical structure for a wide range of many-body quantum systems under periodic driving. Generically, in the thermodynamic limit, such systems are known to heat up to infinite temperature states in the long-time limit irrespective of dynamical details, which kills all the specific properties of the system. In the present study, instead of considering infinitely long-time scale, we aim to provide a general framework to understand the long but finite time behavior, namely the transient dynamics. In our analysis, we focus on the Floquet-Magnus (FM) expansion that gives a formal expression of the effective Hamiltonian on the system. Although in general the full series expansion is not convergent in the thermodynamics limit, we give a clear relationship between the FM expansion and the transient dynamics. More precisely, we rigorously show that a truncated version of the FM expansion accurately describes the exact dynamics for a certain time-scale. Our theory reveals an experimental time-scale for which non-trivial dynamical phenomena can be reliably observed. We discuss several dynamical phenomena, such as the effect of small integrability breaking, efficient numerical simulation of periodically driven systems, dynamical localization and thermalization. Especially on thermalization, we discuss a generic scenario on the prethermalization phenomenon in periodically driven systems.

Transport on intermediate time scales in flows with cat's eye patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Zaks, Michael A.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.

2017-12-01

We consider the advection-diffusion transport of tracers in a one-parameter family of plane periodic flows where the patterns of streamlines feature regions of confined circulation in the shape of "cat's eyes," separated by meandering jets with ballistic motion inside them. By varying the parameter, we proceed from the regular two-dimensional lattice of eddies without jets to the sinusoidally modulated shear flow without eddies. When a weak thermal noise is added, i.e., at large Péclet numbers, several intermediate time scales arise, with qualitatively and quantitatively different transport properties: depending on the parameter of the flow, the initial position of a tracer, and the aging time, motion of the tracers ranges from subdiffusive to superballistic. We report on results of extensive numerical simulations of the mean-squared displacement for different initial conditions in ordinary and aged situations. These results are compared with a theory based on a Lévy walk that describes the intermediate-time ballistic regime and gives a reasonable description of the behavior for a certain class of initial conditions. The interplay of the walk process with internal circulation dynamics in the trapped state results at intermediate time scales in nonmonotonic characteristics of aging not captured by the Lévy walk model.

Post partum depression and the psychosocial predictors in first-time fathers from northwestern China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yin-Ping; Zhang, Lu-Lu; Wei, Huan-Huan; Zhang, Yao; Zhang, Chun-Li; Porr, Caroline

2016-04-01

there is growing evidence that fathers also experience post partum depression (PPD). However, paternal PPD has been less studied than maternal PPD. Very few studies have investigated PPD in first-time fathers from northwestern China. the purpose of this study was to investigate the occurrence and predictors of depressive symptoms in first-time fathers from northwestern China. a longitudinal study was conducted involving 180 couples who were assessed at three time periods: 3 days, 2 weeks and 6 weeks after childbirth. Self-reported questionnaires including Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), Parenting Sense of Competence Scale (PSOC), and Kansas Marital Satisfaction Scale (KMSS) were administered to all participants during each time period. after childbirth 35 (21.1%) of the fathers at 3 days, 32 (20.4%) at 2 weeks and 20 (13.6%) at 6 weeks, indicated that they suffered from PPD. Paternal parental sense of competence, paternal marital satisfaction, and maternal depressive symptoms were among the main predictors for paternal PPD. the study results suggest that paternal PPD is a significant public health concern. Health professionals should focus attention on the psychological health among new fathers during the postpartum period; and, the psychosocial predictors should be considered and incorporated into clinical assessment and intervention of paternal PPD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nano-materials enabled thermoelectricity from window glasses.

PubMed

Inayat, Salman B; Rader, Kelly R; Hussain, Muhammad M

2012-01-01

With a projection of nearly doubling up the world population by 2050, we need wide variety of renewable and clean energy sources to meet the increased energy demand. Solar energy is considered as the leading promising alternate energy source with the pertinent challenge of off sunshine period and uneven worldwide distribution of usable sun light. Although thermoelectricity is considered as a reasonable renewable energy from wasted heat, its mass scale usage is yet to be developed. Here we show, large scale integration of nano-manufactured pellets of thermoelectric nano-materials, embedded into window glasses to generate thermoelectricity using the temperature difference between hot outside and cool inside. For the first time, this work offers an opportunity to potentially generate 304 watts of usable power from 9 m(2) window at a 20°C temperature gradient. If a natural temperature gradient exists, this can serve as a sustainable energy source for green building technology.

The Importance of Neighborhood Scheme Selection in Agent-based Tumor Growth Modeling.

PubMed

Tzedakis, Georgios; Tzamali, Eleftheria; Marias, Kostas; Sakkalis, Vangelis

2015-01-01

Modeling tumor growth has proven a very challenging problem, mainly due to the fact that tumors are highly complex systems that involve dynamic interactions spanning multiple scales both in time and space. The desire to describe interactions in various scales has given rise to modeling approaches that use both continuous and discrete variables, known as hybrid approaches. This work refers to a hybrid model on a 2D square lattice focusing on cell movement dynamics as they play an important role in tumor morphology, invasion and metastasis and are considered as indicators for the stage of malignancy used for early prognosis and effective treatment. Considering various distributions of the microenvironment, we explore how Neumann vs. Moore neighborhood schemes affects tumor growth and morphology. The results indicate that the importance of neighborhood selection is critical under specific conditions that include i) increased hapto/chemo-tactic coefficient, ii) a rugged microenvironment and iii) ECM degradation.

Imbibition with swelling: Capillary rise in thin deformable porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvick, Mathias; Martinez, D. Mark; Hewitt, Duncan R.; Balmforth, Neil J.

2017-07-01

The imbibition of a liquid into a thin deformable porous substrate driven by capillary suction is considered. The substrate is initially dry and has uniform porosity and thickness. Two-phase flow theory is used to describe how the liquid flows through the pore space behind the wetting front when out-of-plane deformation of the solid matrix is considered. Neglecting gravity and evaporation, standard shallow-layer scalings are used to construct a reduced model of the dynamics. The model predicts convergence to a self-similar behavior in all regions except near the wetting front, where a boundary layer arises whose structure narrows with the advance of the front. Over time, the rise height approaches the similarity scaling of t1 /2, as in the classical Washburn or BCLW law. The results are compared with a series of laboratory experiments using cellulose paper sheets, which provide qualitative agreement.

Effects of coarse-graining on the scaling behavior of long-range correlated and anti-correlated signals.

PubMed

Xu, Yinlin; Ma, Qianli D Y; Schmitt, Daniel T; Bernaola-Galván, Pedro; Ivanov, Plamen Ch

2011-11-01

We investigate how various coarse-graining (signal quantization) methods affect the scaling properties of long-range power-law correlated and anti-correlated signals, quantified by the detrended fluctuation analysis. Specifically, for coarse-graining in the magnitude of a signal, we consider (i) the Floor, (ii) the Symmetry and (iii) the Centro-Symmetry coarse-graining methods. We find that for anti-correlated signals coarse-graining in the magnitude leads to a crossover to random behavior at large scales, and that with increasing the width of the coarse-graining partition interval Δ, this crossover moves to intermediate and small scales. In contrast, the scaling of positively correlated signals is less affected by the coarse-graining, with no observable changes when Δ < 1, while for Δ > 1 a crossover appears at small scales and moves to intermediate and large scales with increasing Δ. For very rough coarse-graining (Δ > 3) based on the Floor and Symmetry methods, the position of the crossover stabilizes, in contrast to the Centro-Symmetry method where the crossover continuously moves across scales and leads to a random behavior at all scales; thus indicating a much stronger effect of the Centro-Symmetry compared to the Floor and the Symmetry method. For coarse-graining in time, where data points are averaged in non-overlapping time windows, we find that the scaling for both anti-correlated and positively correlated signals is practically preserved. The results of our simulations are useful for the correct interpretation of the correlation and scaling properties of symbolic sequences.

Effects of coarse-graining on the scaling behavior of long-range correlated and anti-correlated signals

PubMed Central

Xu, Yinlin; Ma, Qianli D.Y.; Schmitt, Daniel T.; Bernaola-Galván, Pedro; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

2014-01-01

We investigate how various coarse-graining (signal quantization) methods affect the scaling properties of long-range power-law correlated and anti-correlated signals, quantified by the detrended fluctuation analysis. Specifically, for coarse-graining in the magnitude of a signal, we consider (i) the Floor, (ii) the Symmetry and (iii) the Centro-Symmetry coarse-graining methods. We find that for anti-correlated signals coarse-graining in the magnitude leads to a crossover to random behavior at large scales, and that with increasing the width of the coarse-graining partition interval Δ, this crossover moves to intermediate and small scales. In contrast, the scaling of positively correlated signals is less affected by the coarse-graining, with no observable changes when Δ < 1, while for Δ > 1 a crossover appears at small scales and moves to intermediate and large scales with increasing Δ. For very rough coarse-graining (Δ > 3) based on the Floor and Symmetry methods, the position of the crossover stabilizes, in contrast to the Centro-Symmetry method where the crossover continuously moves across scales and leads to a random behavior at all scales; thus indicating a much stronger effect of the Centro-Symmetry compared to the Floor and the Symmetry method. For coarse-graining in time, where data points are averaged in non-overlapping time windows, we find that the scaling for both anti-correlated and positively correlated signals is practically preserved. The results of our simulations are useful for the correct interpretation of the correlation and scaling properties of symbolic sequences. PMID:25392599

Tachyon field non-minimally coupled to massive neutrino matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmad, Safia; Myrzakulov, Nurgissa; Myrzakulov, R., E-mail: safia@ctp-jamia.res.in, E-mail: nmyrzakulov@gmail.com, E-mail: rmyrzakulov@gmail.com

2016-07-01

In this paper, we consider rolling tachyon, with steep run-away type of potentials non-minimally coupled to massive neutrino matter. The coupling dynamically builds up at late times as neutrino matter turns non-relativistic. In case of scaling and string inspired potentials, we have shown that non-minimal coupling leads to minimum in the field potential. Given a suitable choice of model parameters, it is shown to give rise to late-time acceleration with the desired equation of state.

Anisotropic ghost dark energy cosmological model with hybrid expansion law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahanta, Chandra Rekha; Sarma, Nitin

2017-11-01

In this paper, we study the anisotropic Bianchi type-VI0 metric filled with dark matter and anisotropic ghost dark energy. We have solved the Einstein's field equations by considering hybrid expansion law (HEL) for the average scale factor. It is found that at later times the universe becomes spatially homogeneous, isotropic and flat. From a state finder diagnosis, it is found that our model is having similar behavior like ɅCDM model at late phase of cosmic time.

Impulsive effects of phase-locked pulse pairs on nuclear motion in the electronic ground state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cina, J. A.; Smith, T. J.

1993-06-01

The nonlinear effects of ultrashort phase-locked electronically resonant pulse pairs on the ground state nuclear motion are investigated theoretically. The pulse-pair propagator, momentum impulse, and displacement are determined in the weak field limit for pulse pairs separated by a time delay short on a nuclear time scale. Possible application to large amplitude vibrational excitation of the 104 cm-1 mode of α-perylene is considered and comparisons are made to other Raman excitation methods.

Multiscale spatial and temporal estimation of the b-value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Hernández, R.; D'Auria, L.; Barrancos, J.; Padilla, G.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the spatial and temporal variations of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value is of great importance in different seismological applications. One of the problems affecting its estimation is the heterogeneous distribution of the seismicity which makes its estimate strongly dependent upon the selected spatial and/or temporal scale. This is especially important in volcanoes where dense clusters of earthquakes often overlap the background seismicity. Proposed solutions for estimating temporal variations of the b-value include considering equally spaced time intervals or variable intervals having an equal number of earthquakes. Similar approaches have been proposed to image the spatial variations of this parameter as well.We propose a novel multiscale approach, based on the method of Ogata and Katsura (1993), allowing a consistent estimation of the b-value regardless of the considered spatial and/or temporal scales. Our method, named MUST-B (MUltiscale Spatial and Temporal characterization of the B-value), basically consists in computing estimates of the b-value at multiple temporal and spatial scales, extracting for a give spatio-temporal point a statistical estimator of the value, as well as and indication of the characteristic spatio-temporal scale. This approach includes also a consistent estimation of the completeness magnitude (Mc) and of the uncertainties over both b and Mc.We applied this method to example datasets for volcanic (Tenerife, El Hierro) and tectonic areas (Central Italy) as well as an example application at global scale.

Model-based cross-correlation search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whelan, John T.; Sundaresan, Santosh; Zhang, Yuanhao; Peiris, Prabath

2015-05-01

We consider the cross-correlation search for periodic gravitational waves and its potential application to the low-mass x-ray binary Sco X-1. This method coherently combines data not only from different detectors at the same time, but also data taken at different times from the same or different detectors. By adjusting the maximum allowed time offset between a pair of data segments to be coherently combined, one can tune the method to trade off sensitivity and computing costs. In particular, the detectable signal amplitude scales as the inverse fourth root of this coherence time. The improvement in amplitude sensitivity for a search with a maximum time offset of one hour, compared with a directed stochastic background search with 0.25-Hz-wide bins, is about a factor of 5.4. We show that a search of one year of data from the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors with a coherence time of one hour would be able to detect gravitational waves from Sco X-1 at the level predicted by torque balance over a range of signal frequencies from 30 to 300 Hz; if the coherence time could be increased to ten hours, the range would be 20 to 500 Hz. In addition, we consider several technical aspects of the cross-correlation method: We quantify the effects of spectral leakage and show that nearly rectangular windows still lead to the most sensitive search. We produce an explicit parameter-space metric for the cross-correlation search, in general, and as applied to a neutron star in a circular binary system. We consider the effects of using a signal template averaged over unknown amplitude parameters: The quantity to which the search is sensitive is a given function of the intrinsic signal amplitude and the inclination of the neutron-star rotation axis to the line of sight, and the peak of the expected detection statistic is systematically offset from the true signal parameters. Finally, we describe the potential loss of signal-to-noise ratio due to unmodeled effects such as signal phase acceleration within the Fourier transform time scale and gradual evolution of the spin frequency.

Self-esteem and health-related quality of life in ostomized patients.

PubMed

Ferreira, Emmanuelle da Cunha; Barbosa, Maria Helena; Sonobe, Helena Megumi; Barichello, Elizabeth

2017-04-01

to assess self-esteem (SE) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in ostomized patients due to colorectal cancer. cross sectional research with a quantitative approach. Three instruments were used for data collection: one instrument containing sociodemographic and clinical data, Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale, and the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire. SE and HRQoL were considered satisfactory. Significant statistical difference was found in the social function domain and marital status, ostomy duration, location, and time; global health scale and ostomy type; cognitive function and pain in the ostomy site. There was a correlation between self-esteem and all the functional scales and the global health scale. knowing SE and HRQoL levels, in addition to the variables that influence them, supports ostomized patients' care planning, rehabilitation, and social autonomy.

The patient satisfaction questionnaire of EUprimecare project: measurement properties.

PubMed

Cimas, Marta; Ayala, Alba; García-Pérez, Sonia; Sarria-Santamera, Antonio; Forjaz, Maria João

2016-06-01

The measurement of patient satisfaction is considered an essential outcome indicator to evaluate health care quality. Patient satisfaction is considered a multi-dimensional construct, which would include a variety of domains. Although a large number of studies have proposed scales to measure patient satisfaction, there is a lack of psychometric information on them. This study aims to describe the psychometric properties of the Primary Care Satisfaction Scale (PCSS) of the EUprimecare project. A cross-sectional survey of patient satisfaction with primary care was carried out by telephone interview. Primary care services of Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Italy and Spain. A total of 3020 adult patients aged 18-65 years old attending primary care services. Classic psychometric properties were analysed and Rasch analysis was used to assess the following measurement properties: fit to the Rasch model; uni-dimensionality; reliability; differential item functioning (DIF) by gender, age, civil status, area of residency and country; local independency; adequacy of response scale; and scale targeting. To achieve good fit to the Rasch model, the original response scales of three items (1, 2 and 6) were rescored and Item 3 (waiting time in the room) was removed. The scale was uni-dimensional and Person Separation Index was 0.79, indicating a good reliability. All items were free from bias. PCSS linear measure displayed satisfactory convergent validity with overall satisfaction with primary care. PCSS, as a reliable and valid scale, could be used to measure patient satisfaction in primary care in Europe. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Pores-scale hydrodynamics in a progressively bio-clogged three-dimensional porous medium: 3D particle tracking experiments and stochastic transport modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, V. L.; Carrel, M.; Dentz, M.; Derlon, N.; Morgenroth, E.; Holzner, M.

2017-12-01

Biofilms are ubiquitous bacterial communities growing in various porous media including soils, trickling and sand filters and are relevant for applications such as the degradation of pollutants for bioremediation, waste water or drinking water production purposes. By their development, biofilms dynamically change the structure of porous media, increasing the heterogeneity of the pore network and the non-Fickian or anomalous dispersion. In this work, we use an experimental approach to investigate the influence of biofilm growth on pore scale hydrodynamics and transport processes and propose a correlated continuous time random walk model capturing these observations. We perform three-dimensional particle tracking velocimetry at four different time points from 0 to 48 hours of biofilm growth. The biofilm growth notably impacts pore-scale hydrodynamics, as shown by strong increase of the average velocity and in tailing of Lagrangian velocity probability density functions. Additionally, the spatial correlation length of the flow increases substantially. This points at the formation of preferential flow pathways and stagnation zones, which ultimately leads to an increase of anomalous transport in the porous media considered, characterized by non-Fickian scaling of mean-squared displacements and non-Gaussian distributions of the displacement probability density functions. A gamma distribution provides a remarkable approximation of the bulk and the high tail of the Lagrangian pore-scale velocity magnitude, indicating a transition from a parallel pore arrangement towards a more serial one. Finally, a correlated continuous time random walk based on a stochastic relation velocity model accurately reproduces the observations and could be used to predict transport beyond the time scales accessible to the experiment.

Simulating the Thermal Response of High Explosives on Time Scales of Days to Microseconds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoh, Jack J.; McClelland, Matthew A.

2004-07-01

We present an overview of computational techniques for simulating the thermal cookoff of high explosives using a multi-physics hydrodynamics code, ALE3D. Recent improvements to the code have aided our computational capability in modeling the response of energetic materials systems exposed to extreme thermal environments, such as fires. We consider an idealized model process for a confined explosive involving the transition from slow heating to rapid deflagration in which the time scale changes from days to hundreds of microseconds. The heating stage involves thermal expansion and decomposition according to an Arrhenius kinetics model while a pressure-dependent burn model is employed during the explosive phase. We describe and demonstrate the numerical strategies employed to make the transition from slow to fast dynamics.

Using the PORS Problems to Examine Evolutionary Optimization of Multiscale Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reinhart, Zachary; Molian, Vaelan; Bryden, Kenneth

2013-01-01

Nearly all systems of practical interest are composed of parts assembled across multiple scales. For example, an agrodynamic system is composed of flora and fauna on one scale; soil types, slope, and water runoff on another scale; and management practice and yield on another scale. Or consider an advanced coal-fired power plant: combustion and pollutant formation occurs on one scale, the plant components on another scale, and the overall performance of the power system is measured on another. In spite of this, there are few practical tools for the optimization of multiscale systems. This paper examines multiscale optimization of systemsmore » composed of discrete elements using the plus-one-recall-store (PORS) problem as a test case or study problem for multiscale systems. From this study, it is found that by recognizing the constraints and patterns present in discrete multiscale systems, the solution time can be significantly reduced and much more complex problems can be optimized.« less

A first determination of the unpolarized quark TMDs from a global analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bacchetta, Alessandro; Delcarro, Filippo; Pisano, Cristian

Transverse momentum dependent distribution and fragmentation functions of unpolarized quarks inside unpolarized protons are extracted, for the first time, through a simultaneous analysis of semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering, Drell-Yan and Z boson hadroproduction processes. This study is performed at leading order in perturbative QCD, with energy scale evolution at the next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy. Moreover, some specific choices are made to deal with low scale evolution around 1 GeV2. Since only data in the low transverse momentum region are considered, no matching to fixed-order calculations at high transverse momentum is needed.

Correlative analysis of social support with anxiety and depression in men undergoing in vitro fertilization embryo transfer for the first time.

PubMed

Dong, Yue-Zhi; Yang, Xiao-Xia; Sun, Ying-Pu

2013-08-01

To explore the correlation between the level of social support and the extent of anxiety and depression in Chinese men undergoing in vitro fertilization embryo transfer (IVF-ET) for the first time, in order to provide a basis for male mental health counselling. Self-administered questionnaires covering general health status, anxiety (self-rating anxiety scale), depression (self-rating depression scale) and social support (social support rating scale) were completed by men undergoing their first round of IVF-ET. A total of 502 completed questionnaires were considered valid and were analysed. The anxiety, depression and social support scores for men undergoing their first round of IVF-ET were significantly higher than those for Chinese normative data. Social support was inversely correlated with anxiety and depression. These findings suggest that health care professionals should provide specific psychological counselling to Chinese men undergoing their first round of IVF-ET, in order to improve their psychological health and to facilitate increased levels of social support.

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Robyn S.; Hardisty, David J.; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Runge, Michael C.; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Urban, Dean L.; Maguire, Lynn A.; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J.; Peters, Debra P.C.

2016-01-01

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems.

PubMed

Wilson, Robyn S; Hardisty, David J; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S; Runge, Michael C; Cottingham, Kathryn L; Urban, Dean L; Maguire, Lynn A; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J; Peters, Debra P C

2016-02-01

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers' actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Scale free effects in world currency exchange network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Górski, A. Z.; Drożdż, S.; Kwapień, J.

2008-11-01

A large collection of daily time series for 60 world currencies' exchange rates is considered. The correlation matrices are calculated and the corresponding Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) graphs are constructed for each of those currencies used as reference for the remaining ones. It is shown that multiplicity of the MST graphs' nodes to a good approximation develops a power like, scale free distribution with the scaling exponent similar as for several other complex systems studied so far. Furthermore, quantitative arguments in favor of the hierarchical organization of the world currency exchange network are provided by relating the structure of the above MST graphs and their scaling exponents to those that are derived from an exactly solvable hierarchical network model. A special status of the USD during the period considered can be attributed to some departures of the MST features, when this currency (or some other tied to it) is used as reference, from characteristics typical to such a hierarchical clustering of nodes towards those that correspond to the random graphs. Even though in general the basic structure of the MST is robust with respect to changing the reference currency some trace of a systematic transition from somewhat dispersed - like the USD case - towards more compact MST topology can be observed when correlations increase.

Predicting monthly precipitation along coastal Ecuador: ENSO and transfer function models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Guenni, Lelys B.; García, Mariangel; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Santos, José L.; Cedeño, Alexandra; Perugachi, Carlos; Castillo, José

2017-08-01

It is well known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns in several parts of the world. One of the most impacted areas is the western coast of South America, where Ecuador is located. El Niño events that occurred in 1982-1983, 1987-1988, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998 produced important positive rainfall anomalies in the coastal zone of Ecuador, bringing considerable damage to livelihoods, agriculture, and infrastructure. Operational climate forecasts in the region provide only seasonal scale (e.g., 3-month averages) information, but during ENSO events it is key for decision-makers to use reliable sub-seasonal scale forecasts, which at the present time are still non-existent in most parts of the world. This study analyzes the potential predictability of coastal Ecuador rainfall at monthly scale. Instead of the discrete approach that considers training models using only particular seasons, continuous (i.e., all available months are used) transfer function models are built using standard ENSO indices to explore rainfall forecast skill along the Ecuadorian coast and Galápagos Islands. The modeling approach considers a large-scale contribution, represented by the role of a sea-surface temperature index, and a local-scale contribution represented here via the use of previous precipitation observed in the same station. The study found that the Niño3 index is the best ENSO predictor of monthly coastal rainfall, with a lagged response varying from 0 months (simultaneous) for Galápagos up to 3 months for the continental locations considered. Model validation indicates that the skill is similar to the one obtained using principal component regression models for the same kind of experiments. It is suggested that the proposed approach could provide skillful rainfall forecasts at monthly scale for up to a few months in advance.

Principal fiber bundle description of number scaling for scalars and vectors: application to gauge theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benioff, Paul

2015-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to put the description of number scaling and its effects on physics and geometry on a firmer foundation, and to make it more understandable. A main point is that two different concepts, number and number value are combined in the usual representations of number structures. This is valid as long as just one structure of each number type is being considered. It is not valid when different structures of each number type are being considered. Elements of base sets of number structures, considered by themselves, have no meaning. They acquire meaning or value as elements of a number structure. Fiber bundles over a space or space time manifold, M, are described. The fiber consists of a collection of many real or complex number structures and vector space structures. The structures are parameterized by a real or complex scaling factor, s. A vector space at a fiber level, s, has, as scalars, real or complex number structures at the same level. Connections are described that relate scalar and vector space structures at both neighbor M locations and at neighbor scaling levels. Scalar and vector structure valued fields are described and covariant derivatives of these fields are obtained. Two complex vector fields, each with one real and one imaginary field, appear, with one complex field associated with positions in M and the other with position dependent scaling factors. A derivation of the covariant derivative for scalar and vector valued fields gives the same vector fields. The derivation shows that the complex vector field associated with scaling fiber levels is the gradient of a complex scalar field. Use of these results in gauge theory shows that the imaginary part of the vector field associated with M positions acts like the electromagnetic field. The physical relevance of the other three fields, if any, is not known.

The Thing We Really Need

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, E.

2017-12-01

I'm known for hyperbole and provocative statements. "What do you get from 10,000 magnetometers distributed around the globe? A low resolution image of currents." To a great extent, I'm having fun with such statements, I truly value the phenomenal armada of spacecraft - the HSO - with which we are exploring geospace, and certainly we need the in situ measurements to unravel the fundamental (small scale) processes at the heart of space weather. But, for me there is underlying truth for my light-hearted rhetoric. The geospace community has been too accepting of arguments against significant investment in imaging. Some say "you can't do science with images." My answer? "Tell that to the astronomers". Some say "we've flown an auroral imager… been there, done that." My answer? "The fact that we've flown ten magnetometers seems to not preclude flying another ten." We are comfortable spending multiple billions of dollars on in situ observations, yet uncomfortable spending even just tens of millions on imaging. Why does this matter? In situ focused missions are giving us a profoundly important of the small scale physics by which everything in geospace happens. However, these effects spin up via space/time scales that are poorly sampled. We are often left piecing together the critically important mesoscale picture with dramatically under-sampled "images". Consider the images below. Consider the SDO images showing a flare in exquisite detail in multiple wavelengths. With these, solar physicists have made dramatic advances relating small scale with mesoscales and their consequences. Through these the public has been inspired and awe stricken. Consider the ASI images with overlaid SuperDARN observations. Such images have allowed us to make great advances, but it's time for us to acknowledge that our imaging leaves too much to the imagination, and falls well short of creating visuals that inspire. It's time for us to make the movie of our system. In this presentation, I suggest a $3B "mission to geospace" with three pillars: (1) a continent-size ground-based network of innovative new instruments; (2) four satellites on Molniya orbits outfitted with next-generation multi-wavelength optical, ENA and X-Ray imagers; and (3) 100 satellites in formation in the magnetosphere providing radio sounding and in situ observations of key regions.

A downscaling method for the assessment of local climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, E.; Portoghese, I.; Vurro, M.

2009-04-01

The use of complimentary models is necessary to study the impact of climate change scenarios on the hydrological response at different space-time scales. However, the structure of GCMs is such that their space resolution (hundreds of kilometres) is too coarse and not adequate to describe the variability of extreme events at basin scale (Burlando and Rosso, 2002). To bridge the space-time gap between the climate scenarios and the usual scale of the inputs for hydrological prediction models is a fundamental requisite for the evaluation of climate change impacts on water resources. Since models operate a simplification of a complex reality, their results cannot be expected to fit with climate observations. Identifying local climate scenarios for impact analysis implies the definition of more detailed local scenario by downscaling GCMs or RCMs results. Among the output correction methods we consider the statistical approach by Déqué (2007) reported as a ‘Variable correction method' in which the correction of model outputs is obtained by a function build with the observation dataset and operating a quantile-quantile transformation (Q-Q transform). However, in the case of daily precipitation fields the Q-Q transform is not able to correct the temporal property of the model output concerning the dry-wet lacunarity process. An alternative correction method is proposed based on a stochastic description of the arrival-duration-intensity processes in coherence with the Poissonian Rectangular Pulse scheme (PRP) (Eagleson, 1972). In this proposed approach, the Q-Q transform is applied to the PRP variables derived from the daily rainfall datasets. Consequently the corrected PRP parameters are used for the synthetic generation of statistically homogeneous rainfall time series that mimic the persistency of daily observations for the reference period. Then the PRP parameters are forced through the GCM scenarios to generate local scale rainfall records for the 21st century. The statistical parameters characterizing daily storm occurrence, storm intensity and duration needed to apply the PRP scheme are considered among STARDEX collection of extreme indices.

Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with burstiness and heterogeneous activation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burioni, Raffaella; Ubaldi, Enrico; Vezzani, Alessandro

2017-05-01

The recent availability of large-scale, time-resolved and high quality digital datasets has allowed for a deeper understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. The empirical evidence of a temporal dimension prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of networks to a time varying one. In this work we briefly review the framework of time-varying-networks in real world social systems, especially focusing on the activity-driven paradigm. We develop a framework that allows for the encoding of three generative mechanisms that seem to play a central role in the social networks’ evolution: the individual’s propensity to engage in social interactions, its strategy in allocate these interactions among its alters and the burstiness of interactions amongst social actors. The functional forms and probability distributions encoding these mechanisms are typically data driven. A natural question arises if different classes of strategies and burstiness distributions, with different local scale behavior and analogous asymptotics can lead to the same long time and large scale structure of the evolving networks. We consider the problem in its full generality, by investigating and solving the system dynamics in the asymptotic limit, for general classes of ties allocation mechanisms and waiting time probability distributions. We show that the asymptotic network evolution is driven by a few characteristics of these functional forms, that can be extracted from direct measurements on large datasets.

The long-time dynamics of two hydrodynamically-coupled swimming cells.

PubMed

Michelin, Sébastien; Lauga, Eric

2010-05-01

Swimming microorganisms such as bacteria or spermatozoa are typically found in dense suspensions, and exhibit collective modes of locomotion qualitatively different from that displayed by isolated cells. In the dilute limit where fluid-mediated interactions can be treated rigorously, the long-time hydrodynamics of a collection of cells result from interactions with many other cells, and as such typically eludes an analytical approach. Here, we consider the only case where such problem can be treated rigorously analytically, namely when the cells have spatially confined trajectories, such as the spermatozoa of some marine invertebrates. We consider two spherical cells swimming, when isolated, with arbitrary circular trajectories, and derive the long-time kinematics of their relative locomotion. We show that in the dilute limit where the cells are much further away than their size, and the size of their circular motion, a separation of time scale occurs between a fast (intrinsic) swimming time, and a slow time where hydrodynamic interactions lead to change in the relative position and orientation of the swimmers. We perform a multiple-scale analysis and derive the effective dynamical system--of dimension two--describing the long-time behavior of the pair of cells. We show that the system displays one type of equilibrium, and two types of rotational equilibrium, all of which are found to be unstable. A detailed mathematical analysis of the dynamical systems further allows us to show that only two cell-cell behaviors are possible in the limit of t-->infinity, either the cells are attracted to each other (possibly monotonically), or they are repelled (possibly monotonically as well), which we confirm with numerical computations. Our analysis shows therefore that, even in the dilute limit, hydrodynamic interactions lead to new modes of cell-cell locomotion.

78 FR 19495 - Draft Guidance for Industry on Scale-Up and Post-Approval Changes: Manufacturing Equipment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-01

...-based assessment approaches and quality by design principles. These efforts will also be considered part... processes being referenced. DATES: Although you can comment on any guidance at any time (see 21 CFR 10.115(g... on the final version of the guidance and on any other part of the SUPAC guidance series, submit...

Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

Treesearch

John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

Poleward energy transport: is the standard definition physically relevant at all time scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Minyi; Czaja, Arnaud; Graversen, Rune; Tailleux, Remi

2018-03-01

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by "eddies" and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with a net transport of mass across latitude circles. The latter must cease to operate in steady state, but they may be significant when time variability of the heat budget is considered. Indeed, examination of reanalysis data on short (daily to monthly) timescales shows that mass variations on these timescales result in surprisingly large fluctuations (in excess of 10^{15} W = 1 PW) in the poleward heat transport. These fluctuations are referred to as "extensive", for they primarily alter the mass integrated energy of the region considered, but not its averaged value. It is suggested that extensive fluctuations mask more meaningful climate signals present in the heat transport variability on monthly and interannual timescales, and a new formulation is proposed to isolate the latter. This new formulation is applied successfully to reanalysis data and climate model simulations.

Explanatory Model of Resilience in Pediatric Burn Survivors.

PubMed

Quezada, Lucía; González, Mónica T; Mecott, Gabriel A

2016-01-01

Identifying factors of adjustment in pediatric burn patients may facilitate appropriate mental health interventions postinjury. The aim of this is study was to explore the roles of both the patient's and caregivers' resilience and posttraumatic stress in pediatric burn survivor adjustment. For the purposes of the study, "51 patient-parent/guardian" dyads participated. Patients answered the Resilience Questionnaire for Children and Adolescents, and caregivers answered the Mexican Resilience Scale and the Davidson Trauma Scale. The roles of patient age, time since the burn, and size of burn injury were also considered. Statistical analyses included Spearman's ρ for correlations and structural equation modeling. P less than .05 was considered significant. Patients and caregivers reported high levels of resilience, and the majority of caregivers reported low severity of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. Pediatric burn survivors' resilience was associated with being younger at the time of the burn and less severity of intrusive and avoidance symptoms in caregivers; it was also associated with a higher resilience in caregivers. It can be concluded that psychological responses of caregivers of pediatric burn survivors affect the well being and positive adjustment of patients; thus psychological services for caregivers would likely have a double benefit for both caregivers and patients.

Poleward Energy Transport: Is the Standard Definition Physically Relevant at All Time Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, M.; Czaja, A.; Graversen, R.; Tailleux, R.

2017-12-01

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by ''eddies'' and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with a net transport of mass across latitude circles. The latter must cease to operate in steady state, but they may be significant when time variability of the heat budget is considered. Indeed, examination of reanalysis data on short (daily to monthly) timescales shows that mass variations on these timescales result in surprisingly large fluctuations (in excess of 1015W = 1PW) in the poleward heat transport. These fluctuations are referred to as ''extensive'', for they primarily alter the mass integrated energy of the region considered, but not its averaged value. It is suggested that extensive fluctuations mask more meaningful climate signals present in the heat transport variability, and a new formulation is proposed to isolate the latter. This new formulation is applied successfully to reanalysis data and climate model simulations.

Halogen Radicals Promote the Photodegradation of Microcystins in Estuarine Systems.

PubMed

Parker, Kimberly M; Reichwaldt, Elke S; Ghadouani, Anas; Mitch, William A

2016-08-16

The transport of microcystin, a hepatotoxin produced by cyanobacteria (e.g., Microcystis aeruginosa), to estuaries can adversely affect estuarine and coastal ecosystems. We evaluated whether halogen radicals (i.e., reactive halogen species (RHS)) could significantly contribute to microcystin photodegradation during transport within estuaries. Experiments in synthetic and natural water samples demonstrated that the presence of seawater halides increased quantum yields for microcystin indirect photodegradation by factors of 3-6. Additional experiments indicated that photoproduced RHS were responsible for this effect. Despite the fact that dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentrations decreased in more saline waters, the calculated photochemical half-life of microcystin decreased 6-fold with increasing salinity along a freshwater-estuarine transect due to the halide-associated increase in quantum yield. Modeling of microcystin photodegradation along this transect indicated that the time scale for RHS-mediated microcystin photodegradation is comparable to the time scale of transport. Microcystin concentrations decline by ∼98% along the transect when considering photodegradation by RHS, but only by ∼54% if this pathway were ignored. These results suggest the importance of considering RHS-mediated photodegradation in future models of microcystin fate in freshwater-estuarine systems.

Role of band 3 in the erythrocyte membrane structural changes under thermal fluctuations -multi scale modeling considerations.

PubMed

Pajic-Lijakovic, Ivana

2015-12-01

An attempt was made to discuss and connect various modeling approaches on various time and space scales which have been proposed in the literature in order to shed further light on the erythrocyte membrane rearrangement caused by the cortex-lipid bilayer coupling under thermal fluctuations. Roles of the main membrane constituents: (1) the actin-spectrin cortex, (2) the lipid bilayer, and (3) the trans membrane protein band 3 and their course-consequence relations were considered in the context of the cortex non linear stiffening and corresponding anomalous nature of energy dissipation. The fluctuations induce alternating expansion and compression of the membrane parts in order to ensure surface and volume conservation. The membrane structural changes were considered within two time regimes. The results indicate that the cortex non linear stiffening and corresponding anomalous nature of energy dissipation are related to the spectrin flexibility distribution and the rate of its changes. The spectrin flexibility varies from purely flexible to semi flexible. It is influenced by: (1) the number of band 3 molecules attached to single spectrin filaments, and (2) phosphorylation of the actin-junctions. The rate of spectrin flexibility changes depends on the band 3 molecules rearrangement.

Temporal variations in parameters reflecting terminal-electron-accepting processes in an aquifer contaminated with waste fuel and chlorinated solvents

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, Jennifer T.; Smith, Erik W.; Long, David T.; Hyndman, David W.; Haack, Sheridan K.; Klug, Michael J.; Velbel, Michael A.

2000-01-01

A fundamental issue in aquifer biogeochemistry is the means by which solute transport, geochemical processes, and microbiological activity combine to produce spatial and temporal variations in redox zonation. In this paper, we describe the temporal variability of TEAP conditions in shallow groundwater contaminated with both waste fuel and chlorinated solvents. TEAP parameters (including methane, dissolved iron, and dissolved hydrogen) were measured to characterize the contaminant plume over a 3-year period. We observed that concentrations of TEAP parameters changed on different time scales and appear to be related, in part, to recharge events. Changes in all TEAP parameters were observed on short time scales (months), and over a longer 3-year period. The results indicate that (1) interpretations of TEAP conditions in aquifers contaminated with a variety of organic chemicals, such as those with petroleum hydrocarbons and chlorinated solvents, must consider additional hydrogen-consuming reactions (e.g., dehalogenation); (2) interpretations must consider the roles of both in situ (at the sampling point) biogeochemical and solute transport processes; and (3) determinations of microbial communities are often necessary to confirm the interpretations made from geochemical and hydrogeological measurements on these processes.

Land use/cover change detection and urban sprawl analysis in Bandar Abbas city, Iran.

PubMed

Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved.

Multi scale modeling of 2450MHz electric field effects on microtubule mechanical properties.

PubMed

Setayandeh, S S; Lohrasebi, A

2016-11-01

Microtubule (MT) rigidity and response to 2450MHz electric fields were investigated, via multi scale modeling approach. For this purpose, six systems were designed and simulated to consider all types of feasible interactions between α and β monomers in MT, by using all atom molecular dynamics method. Subsequently, coarse grain modeling was used to design different lengths of MT. Investigation of effects of external 2450MHz electric field on MT showed MT less rigidity in the presence of such field, which may perturb its functions. Moreover, an additional computational setup was designed to study effects of 2450MHz field on MT response to AFM tip. It was found, more tip velocity led to MT faster transformation and less time was required to change MT elastic response to plastic one, applying constant radius. Moreover it was observed smaller tip caused to increase required time to change MT elastic response to plastic one, considering constant velocity. Furthermore, exposing MT to 2450MHz field led to no significant changes in MT response to AFM tip, but quick change in MT elastic response to plastic one. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Land Use/Cover Change Detection and Urban Sprawl Analysis in Bandar Abbas City, Iran

PubMed Central

Mohd Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956–2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

Are seismic waiting time distributions universal?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidsen, Jörn; Goltz, Christian

2004-11-01

We show that seismic waiting time distributions in California and Iceland have many features in common as, for example, a power-law decay with exponent α ~ 1.1 for intermediate and with exponent γ ~ 0.6 for short waiting times. While the transition point between these two regimes scales proportionally with the size of the considered area, the full distribution is not universal and depends in a non-trivial way on the geological area under consideration and its size. This is due to the spatial distribution of epicenters which does not form a simple mono-fractal. Yet, the dependence of the waiting time distributions on the threshold magnitude seems to be universal.

Update rules and interevent time distributions: slow ordering versus no ordering in the voter model.

PubMed

Fernández-Gracia, J; Eguíluz, V M; San Miguel, M

2011-07-01

We introduce a general methodology of update rules accounting for arbitrary interevent time (IET) distributions in simulations of interacting agents. We consider in particular update rules that depend on the state of the agent, so that the update becomes part of the dynamical model. As an illustration we consider the voter model in fully connected, random, and scale-free networks with an activation probability inversely proportional to the time since the last action, where an action can be an update attempt (an exogenous update) or a change of state (an endogenous update). We find that in the thermodynamic limit, at variance with standard updates and the exogenous update, the system orders slowly for the endogenous update. The approach to the absorbing state is characterized by a power-law decay of the density of interfaces, observing that the mean time to reach the absorbing state might be not well defined. The IET distributions resulting from both update schemes show power-law tails.

A Rigorous Theory of Many-Body Prethermalization for Periodically Driven and Closed Quantum Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abanin, Dmitry; De Roeck, Wojciech; Ho, Wen Wei; Huveneers, François

2017-09-01

Prethermalization refers to the transient phenomenon where a system thermalizes according to a Hamiltonian that is not the generator of its evolution. We provide here a rigorous framework for quantum spin systems where prethermalization is exhibited for very long times. First, we consider quantum spin systems under periodic driving at high frequency {ν}. We prove that up to a quasi-exponential time {τ_* ˜ e^{c ν/log^3 ν}}, the system barely absorbs energy. Instead, there is an effective local Hamiltonian {\\widehat D} that governs the time evolution up to {τ_*}, and hence this effective Hamiltonian is a conserved quantity up to {τ_*}. Next, we consider systems without driving, but with a separation of energy scales in the Hamiltonian. A prime example is the Fermi-Hubbard model where the interaction U is much larger than the hopping J. Also here we prove the emergence of an effective conserved quantity, different from the Hamiltonian, up to a time {τ_*} that is (almost) exponential in {U/J}.

Modular networks with delayed coupling: Synchronization and frequency control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslennikov, Oleg V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.

2014-07-01

We study the collective dynamics of modular networks consisting of map-based neurons which generate irregular spike sequences. Three types of intramodule topology are considered: a random Erdös-Rényi network, a small-world Watts-Strogatz network, and a scale-free Barabási-Albert network. The interaction between the neurons of different modules is organized by relatively sparse connections with time delay. For all the types of the network topology considered, we found that with increasing delay two regimes of module synchronization alternate with each other: inphase and antiphase. At the same time, the average rate of collective oscillations decreases within each of the time-delay intervals corresponding to a particular synchronization regime. A dual role of the time delay is thus established: controlling a synchronization mode and degree and controlling an average network frequency. Furthermore, we investigate the influence on the modular synchronization by other parameters: the strength of intermodule coupling and the individual firing rate.

Effect of noise in principal component analysis with an application to ozone pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsakiri, Katerina G.

This thesis analyzes the effect of independent noise in principal components of k normally distributed random variables defined by a covariance matrix. We prove that the principal components as well as the canonical variate pairs determined from joint distribution of original sample affected by noise can be essentially different in comparison with those determined from the original sample. However when the differences between the eigenvalues of the original covariance matrix are sufficiently large compared to the level of the noise, the effect of noise in principal components and canonical variate pairs proved to be negligible. The theoretical results are supported by simulation study and examples. Moreover, we compare our results about the eigenvalues and eigenvectors in the two dimensional case with other models examined before. This theory can be applied in any field for the decomposition of the components in multivariate analysis. One application is the detection and prediction of the main atmospheric factor of ozone concentrations on the example of Albany, New York. Using daily ozone, solar radiation, temperature, wind speed and precipitation data, we determine the main atmospheric factor for the explanation and prediction of ozone concentrations. A methodology is described for the decomposition of the time series of ozone and other atmospheric variables into the global term component which describes the long term trend and the seasonal variations, and the synoptic scale component which describes the short term variations. By using the Canonical Correlation Analysis, we show that solar radiation is the only main factor between the atmospheric variables considered here for the explanation and prediction of the global and synoptic scale component of ozone. The global term components are modeled by a linear regression model, while the synoptic scale components by a vector autoregressive model and the Kalman filter. The coefficient of determination, R2, for the prediction of the synoptic scale ozone component was found to be the highest when we consider the synoptic scale component of the time series for solar radiation and temperature. KEY WORDS: multivariate analysis; principal component; canonical variate pairs; eigenvalue; eigenvector; ozone; solar radiation; spectral decomposition; Kalman filter; time series prediction

Ultra-Slow Dielectric Relaxation Process in Polyols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yomogida, Yoshiki; Minoguchi, Ayumi; Nozaki, Ryusuke

2004-04-01

Dielectric relaxation processes with relaxation times larger than that for the structural α process are reported for glycerol, xylitol, sorbitol and their mixtures for the first time. Appearance of this ultra-slow process depends on cooling rate. More rapid cooling gives larger dielectric relaxation strength. However, relaxation time is not affected by cooling rate and shows non-Arrhenius temperature dependence with correlation to the α process. It can be considered that non-equilibrium dynamic structure causes the ultra-slow process. Scale of such structure would be much larger than that of the region for the cooperative molecular orientations for the α process.

A model-based approach to determine the long-term effects of multiple interacting stressors on coral reefs.

PubMed

Blackwood, Julie C; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J

2011-10-01

The interaction between multiple stressors on Caribbean coral reefs, namely, fishing effort and hurricane impacts, is a key element in the future sustainability of reefs. We develop an analytic model of coral-algal interactions and explicitly consider grazing by herbivorous reef fish. Further, we consider changes in structural complexity, or rugosity, in addition to the direct impacts of hurricanes, which are implemented as stochastic jump processes. The model simulations consider various levels of fishing effort corresponding to' several hurricane frequencies and impact levels dependent on geographic location. We focus on relatively short time scales so we do not explicitly include changes in ocean temperature, chemistry, or sea level rise. The general features of our approach would, however, apply to these other stressors and to the management of other systems in the face of multiple stressors. It is determined that the appropriate management policy, either local reef restoration or fisheries management, greatly depends on hurricane frequency and impact level. For sufficiently low hurricane impact and macroalgal growth rate, our results indicate that regions with lower-frequency hurricanes require stricter fishing regulations, whereas management in regions with higher-frequency hurricanes might be less concerned with enhancing grazing and instead consider whether local-scale restorative activities to increase vertical structure are cost-effective.

Hydrological Process of Martian Surface in Hesperian epoch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashiki, Y. A.; Sato, H.; Kuroki, R.; Miyamoto, H.; Hemmi, R.

2017-12-01

It is considered that the Mars in Noachian ecoch was much warmer temperature than current condition, with atmosphere and ocean supported by its magnetic actiity. Several valley which seems to be developed by ancient hydrological processes are obsered in Martian surface, is being considered to be built long time before. Some fluvial fun was formed during the following Hesperian epoch, which is considered as much cooler and drier than Noachian epoch. In this study, we applied Hydro-debris 2D model into Martian surface in Hesperian epoch in order to try develping surface vallay formation throughout hydrological processes. Sediment transport and associated small-scale debris-flow occurrence may be the key for valley formation, where might be the micro-habitable zone.

Truncated Linear Statistics Associated with the Eigenvalues of Random Matrices II. Partial Sums over Proper Time Delays for Chaotic Quantum Dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabsch, Aurélien; Majumdar, Satya N.; Texier, Christophe

2017-06-01

Invariant ensembles of random matrices are characterized by the distribution of their eigenvalues \\{λ _1,\\ldots ,λ _N\\}. We study the distribution of truncated linear statistics of the form \\tilde{L}=\\sum _{i=1}^p f(λ _i) with p

Flexible margin kinematics and vortex formation of Aurelia aurita and Robojelly.

PubMed

Villanueva, Alex; Vlachos, Pavlos; Priya, Shashank

2014-01-01

The development of a rowing jellyfish biomimetic robot termed as "Robojelly", has led to the discovery of a passive flexible flap located between the flexion point and bell margin on the Aurelia aurita. A comparative analysis of biomimetic robots showed that the presence of a passive flexible flap results in a significant increase in the swimming performance. In this work we further investigate this concept by developing varying flap geometries and comparing their kinematics with A. aurita. It was shown that the animal flap kinematics can be replicated with high fidelity using a passive structure and a flap with curved and tapered geometry gave the most biomimetic performance. A method for identifying the flap location was established by utilizing the bell curvature and the variation of curvature as a function of time. Flaps of constant cross-section and varying lengths were incorporated on the Robojelly to conduct a systematic study of the starting vortex circulation. Circulation was quantified using velocity field measurements obtained from planar Time Resolved Digital Particle Image Velocimetry (TRDPIV). The starting vortex circulation was scaled using a varying orifice model and a pitching panel model. The varying orifice model which has been traditionally considered as the better representation of jellyfish propulsion did not appear to capture the scaling of the starting vortex. In contrast, the pitching panel representation appeared to better scale the governing flow physics and revealed a strong dependence on the flap kinematics and geometry. The results suggest that an alternative description should be considered for rowing jellyfish propulsion, using a pitching panel method instead of the traditional varying orifice model. Finally, the results show the importance of incorporating the entire bell geometry as a function of time in modeling rowing jellyfish propulsion.

The putative liquid-liquid transition is a liquid-solid transition in atomistic models of water. II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limmer, David T.; Chandler, David

2013-06-01

This paper extends our earlier studies of free energy functions of density and crystalline order parameters for models of supercooled water, which allows us to examine the possibility of two distinct metastable liquid phases [D. T. Limmer and D. Chandler, J. Chem. Phys. 135, 134503 (2011), 10.1063/1.3643333 and preprint arXiv:1107.0337 (2011)]. Low-temperature reversible free energy surfaces of several different atomistic models are computed: mW water, TIP4P/2005 water, Stillinger-Weber silicon, and ST2 water, the last of these comparing three different treatments of long-ranged forces. In each case, we show that there is one stable or metastable liquid phase, and there is an ice-like crystal phase. The time scales for crystallization in these systems far exceed those of structural relaxation in the supercooled metastable liquid. We show how this wide separation in time scales produces an illusion of a low-temperature liquid-liquid transition. The phenomenon suggesting metastability of two distinct liquid phases is actually coarsening of the ordered ice-like phase, which we elucidate using both analytical theory and computer simulation. For the latter, we describe robust methods for computing reversible free energy surfaces, and we consider effects of electrostatic boundary conditions. We show that sensible alterations of models and boundary conditions produce no qualitative changes in low-temperature phase behaviors of these systems, only marginal changes in equations of state. On the other hand, we show that altering sampling time scales can produce large and qualitative non-equilibrium effects. Recent reports of evidence of a liquid-liquid critical point in computer simulations of supercooled water are considered in this light.

The putative liquid-liquid transition is a liquid-solid transition in atomistic models of water. II.

PubMed

Limmer, David T; Chandler, David

2013-06-07

This paper extends our earlier studies of free energy functions of density and crystalline order parameters for models of supercooled water, which allows us to examine the possibility of two distinct metastable liquid phases [D. T. Limmer and D. Chandler, J. Chem. Phys. 135, 134503 (2011) and preprint arXiv:1107.0337 (2011)]. Low-temperature reversible free energy surfaces of several different atomistic models are computed: mW water, TIP4P/2005 water, Stillinger-Weber silicon, and ST2 water, the last of these comparing three different treatments of long-ranged forces. In each case, we show that there is one stable or metastable liquid phase, and there is an ice-like crystal phase. The time scales for crystallization in these systems far exceed those of structural relaxation in the supercooled metastable liquid. We show how this wide separation in time scales produces an illusion of a low-temperature liquid-liquid transition. The phenomenon suggesting metastability of two distinct liquid phases is actually coarsening of the ordered ice-like phase, which we elucidate using both analytical theory and computer simulation. For the latter, we describe robust methods for computing reversible free energy surfaces, and we consider effects of electrostatic boundary conditions. We show that sensible alterations of models and boundary conditions produce no qualitative changes in low-temperature phase behaviors of these systems, only marginal changes in equations of state. On the other hand, we show that altering sampling time scales can produce large and qualitative non-equilibrium effects. Recent reports of evidence of a liquid-liquid critical point in computer simulations of supercooled water are considered in this light.

Lahar hazard assessment in the southern drainage system of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador: Results from multiscale lahar simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistolesi, Marco; Cioni, Raffaello; Rosi, Mauro; Aguilera, Eduardo

2014-02-01

The ice-capped Cotopaxi volcano is known worldwide for the large-scale, catastrophic lahars that have occurred in connection with historical explosive eruptions. The most recent large-scale lahar event occurred in 1877 when scoria flows partially melted ice and snow of the summit glacier, generating debris flows that severely impacted all the river valleys originating from the volcano. The 1877 lahars have been considered in the recent years as a maximum expected event to define the hazard associated to lahar generation at Cotopaxi. Conversely, recent field-based studies have shown that such debris flows have occurred several times during the last 800 years of activity at Cotopaxi, and that the scale of lahars has been variable, including events much larger than that of 1877. Despite a rapid retreat of the summit ice cap over the past century, in fact, there are no data clearly suggesting that future events will be smaller than those observed in the deposits of the last 800 years of activity. In addition, geological field data prove that the lahar triggering mechanism also has to be considered as a key input parameter and, under appropriate eruptive mechanisms, a hazard scenario of a lahar with a volume 3-times larger than the 1877 event is likely. In order to analyze the impact scenarios in the southern drainage system of the volcano, simulations of inundation areas were performed with a semi-empirical model (LAHARZ), using input parameters including variable water volume. Results indicate that a lahar 3-times larger than the 1877 event would invade much wider areas than those flooded by the 1877 lahars along the southern valley system, eventually impacting highly-urbanized areas such as the city of Latacunga.

Sequential data assimilation for a distributed hydrologic model considering different time scale of internal processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.; Kim, S.

2011-12-01

Applications of the sequential data assimilation methods have been increasing in hydrology to reduce uncertainty in the model prediction. In a distributed hydrologic model, there are many types of state variables and each variable interacts with each other based on different time scales. However, the framework to deal with the delayed response, which originates from different time scale of hydrologic processes, has not been thoroughly addressed in the hydrologic data assimilation. In this study, we propose the lagged filtering scheme to consider the lagged response of internal states in a distributed hydrologic model using two filtering schemes; particle filtering (PF) and ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF). The EnKF is one of the widely used sub-optimal filters implementing an efficient computation with limited number of ensemble members, however, still based on Gaussian approximation. PF can be an alternative in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions involved. In case of PF, advanced particle regularization scheme is implemented together to preserve the diversity of the particle system. In case of EnKF, the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) are implemented. Each filtering method is parallelized and implemented in the high performance computing system. A distributed hydrologic model, the water and energy transfer processes (WEP) model, is applied for the Katsura River catchment, Japan to demonstrate the applicability of proposed approaches. Forecasted results via PF and EnKF are compared and analyzed in terms of the prediction accuracy and the probabilistic adequacy. Discussions are focused on the prospects and limitations of each data assimilation method.

A Spectral Element Discretisation on Unstructured Triangle / Tetrahedral Meshes for Elastodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

May, Dave A.; Gabriel, Alice-A.

2017-04-01

The spectral element method (SEM) defined over quadrilateral and hexahedral element geometries has proven to be a fast, accurate and scalable approach to study wave propagation phenomena. In the context of regional scale seismology and or simulations incorporating finite earthquake sources, the geometric restrictions associated with hexahedral elements can limit the applicability of the classical quad./hex. SEM. Here we describe a continuous Galerkin spectral element discretisation defined over unstructured meshes composed of triangles (2D), or tetrahedra (3D). The method uses a stable, nodal basis constructed from PKD polynomials and thus retains the spectral accuracy and low dispersive properties of the classical SEM, in addition to the geometric versatility provided by unstructured simplex meshes. For the particular basis and quadrature rule we have adopted, the discretisation results in a mass matrix which is not diagonal, thereby mandating linear solvers be utilised. To that end, we have developed efficient solvers and preconditioners which are robust with respect to the polynomial order (p), and possess high arithmetic intensity. Furthermore, we also consider using implicit time integrators, together with a p-multigrid preconditioner to circumvent the CFL condition. Implicit time integrators become particularly relevant when considering solving problems on poor quality meshes, or meshes containing elements with a widely varying range of length scales - both of which frequently arise when meshing non-trivial geometries. We demonstrate the applicability of the new method by examining a number of two- and three-dimensional wave propagation scenarios. These scenarios serve to characterise the accuracy and cost of the new method. Lastly, we will assess the potential benefits of using implicit time integrators for regional scale wave propagation simulations.

Evaluation of integration methods for hybrid simulation of complex structural systems through collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Carpio R., Maikol; Hashemi, M. Javad; Mosqueda, Gilberto

2017-10-01

This study examines the performance of integration methods for hybrid simulation of large and complex structural systems in the context of structural collapse due to seismic excitations. The target application is not necessarily for real-time testing, but rather for models that involve large-scale physical sub-structures and highly nonlinear numerical models. Four case studies are presented and discussed. In the first case study, the accuracy of integration schemes including two widely used methods, namely, modified version of the implicit Newmark with fixed-number of iteration (iterative) and the operator-splitting (non-iterative) is examined through pure numerical simulations. The second case study presents the results of 10 hybrid simulations repeated with the two aforementioned integration methods considering various time steps and fixed-number of iterations for the iterative integration method. The physical sub-structure in these tests consists of a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) cantilever column with replaceable steel coupons that provides repeatable highlynonlinear behavior including fracture-type strength and stiffness degradations. In case study three, the implicit Newmark with fixed-number of iterations is applied for hybrid simulations of a 1:2 scale steel moment frame that includes a relatively complex nonlinear numerical substructure. Lastly, a more complex numerical substructure is considered by constructing a nonlinear computational model of a moment frame coupled to a hybrid model of a 1:2 scale steel gravity frame. The last two case studies are conducted on the same porotype structure and the selection of time steps and fixed number of iterations are closely examined in pre-test simulations. The generated unbalance forces is used as an index to track the equilibrium error and predict the accuracy and stability of the simulations.

Comparison of CEAS and Williams-type models for spring wheat yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. L. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The CEAS and Williams-type yield models are both based on multiple regression analysis of historical time series data at CRD level. The CEAS model develops a separate relation for each CRD; the Williams-type model pools CRD data to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analyses are USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, and variables derived from these. The Williams-type model also used soil texture and topographic information. Technological trend is represented in both by piecewise linear functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test of each model (1970-1979) demonstrate that the models are very similar in performance in all respects. Both models are about equally objective, adequate, timely, simple, and inexpensive. Both consider scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail. Neither provides a good current measure of modeled yield reliability. The CEAS model is considered very slightly preferable for AgRISTARS applications.

Decadal-scale sensitivity of Northeast Greenland ice flow to errors in surface mass balance using ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.-J.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Box, J. E.

2013-06-01

The behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is considered a major contributor to sea level changes, is best understood on century and longer time scales. However, on decadal time scales, its response is less predictable due to the difficulty of modeling surface climate, as well as incomplete understanding of the dynamic processes responsible for ice flow. Therefore, it is imperative to understand how modeling advancements, such as increased spatial resolution or more comprehensive ice flow equations, might improve projections of ice sheet response to climatic trends. Here we examine how a finely resolved climate forcing influences a high-resolution ice stream model that considers longitudinal stresses. We simulate ice flow using a two-dimensional Shelfy-Stream Approximation implemented within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and use uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the model to calculate the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to errors in surface mass balance (SMB) forcing. Our results suggest that the model tends to smooth ice velocities even when forced with extreme errors in SMB. Indeed, errors propagate linearly through the model, resulting in discharge uncertainty of 16% or 1.9 Gt/yr. We find that mass flux is most sensitive to local errors but is also affected by errors hundreds of kilometers away; thus, an accurate SMB map of the entire basin is critical for realistic simulation. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses indicate that SMB forcing needs to be provided at a resolution of at least 40 km.

Solar Magnetic Carpet III: Coronal Modelling of Synthetic Magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, K. A.; Mackay, D. H.; van Ballegooijen, A. A.; Parnell, C. E.

2013-09-01

This article is the third in a series working towards the construction of a realistic, evolving, non-linear force-free coronal-field model for the solar magnetic carpet. Here, we present preliminary results of 3D time-dependent simulations of the small-scale coronal field of the magnetic carpet. Four simulations are considered, each with the same evolving photospheric boundary condition: a 48-hour time series of synthetic magnetograms produced from the model of Meyer et al. ( Solar Phys. 272, 29, 2011). Three simulations include a uniform, overlying coronal magnetic field of differing strength, the fourth simulation includes no overlying field. The build-up, storage, and dissipation of magnetic energy within the simulations is studied. In particular, we study their dependence upon the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field and the strength of the overlying coronal field. We also consider where energy is stored and dissipated within the coronal field. The free magnetic energy built up is found to be more than sufficient to power small-scale, transient phenomena such as nanoflares and X-ray bright points, with the bulk of the free energy found to be stored low down, between 0.5 - 0.8 Mm. The energy dissipated is currently found to be too small to account for the heating of the entire quiet-Sun corona. However, the form and location of energy-dissipation regions qualitatively agree with what is observed on small scales on the Sun. Future MHD modelling using the same synthetic magnetograms may lead to a higher energy release.

Using memory-efficient algorithm for large-scale time-domain modeling of surface plasmon polaritons propagation in organic light emitting diodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakirov, Andrey; Belousov, Sergei; Valuev, Ilya; Levchenko, Vadim; Perepelkina, Anastasia; Zempo, Yasunari

2017-10-01

We demonstrate an efficient approach to numerical modeling of optical properties of large-scale structures with typical dimensions much greater than the wavelength of light. For this purpose, we use the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method enhanced with a memory efficient Locally Recursive non-Locally Asynchronous (LRnLA) algorithm called DiamondTorre and implemented for General Purpose Graphical Processing Units (GPGPU) architecture. We apply our approach to simulation of optical properties of organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs), which is an essential step in the process of designing OLEDs with improved efficiency. Specifically, we consider a problem of excitation and propagation of surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) in a typical OLED, which is a challenging task given that SPP decay length can be about two orders of magnitude greater than the wavelength of excitation. We show that with our approach it is possible to extend the simulated volume size sufficiently so that SPP decay dynamics is accounted for. We further consider an OLED with periodically corrugated metallic cathode and show how the SPP decay length can be greatly reduced due to scattering off the corrugation. Ultimately, we compare the performance of our algorithm to the conventional FDTD and demonstrate that our approach can efficiently be used for large-scale FDTD simulations with the use of only a single GPGPU-powered workstation, which is not practically feasible with the conventional FDTD.

Space-time dependence between energy sources and climate related energy production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn; Borga, Marco; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Tøfte, Lena; Warland, Geir

2014-05-01

The European Renewable Energy Directive adopted in 2009 focuses on achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the EU overall energy mix by 2020. A major part of renewable energy production is related to climate, called "climate related energy" (CRE) production. CRE production systems (wind, solar, and hydropower) are characterized by a large degree of intermittency and variability on both short and long time scales due to the natural variability of climate variables. The main strategies to handle the variability of CRE production include energy-storage, -transport, -diversity and -information (smart grids). The three first strategies aim to smooth out the intermittency and variability of CRE production in time and space whereas the last strategy aims to provide a more optimal interaction between energy production and demand, i.e. to smooth out the residual load (the difference between demand and production). In order to increase the CRE share in the electricity system, it is essential to understand the space-time co-variability between the weather variables and CRE production under both current and future climates. This study presents a review of the literature that searches to tackle these problems. It reveals that the majority of studies deals with either a single CRE source or with the combination of two CREs, mostly wind and solar. This may be due to the fact that the most advanced countries in terms of wind equipment have also very little hydropower potential (Denmark, Ireland or UK, for instance). Hydropower is characterized by both a large storage capacity and flexibility in electricity production, and has therefore a large potential for both balancing and storing energy from wind- and solar-power. Several studies look at how to better connect regions with large share of hydropower (e.g., Scandinavia and the Alps) to regions with high shares of wind- and solar-power (e.g., green battery North-Sea net). Considering time scales, various studies consider wind and solar power production and their co-fluctuation at small time scales. The multi-scale nature of the variability is less studied, i.e., the potential adverse or favorable co-fluctuation at intermediate time scales involving water scarcity or abundance, is less present in the literature.Our review points out that it could be especially interesting to promote research on how the pronounced large-scale fluctuations in inflow to hydropower (intra-annual run-off) and smaller scale fluctuations in wind- and solar-power interact in an energy system. There is a need to better represent the profound difference between wind-, solar- and hydro-energy sources. On the one hand, they are all directly linked to the 2-D horizontal dynamics of meteorology. On the other hand, the branching structure of hydrological systems transforms this variability and governs the complex combination of natural inflows and reservoir storage.Finally, we note that the CRE production is, in addition to weather, also influenced by the energy system and market, i.e., the energy transport and demand across scales as well as changes of market regulation. The CRE production system lies thus in this nexus between climate, energy systems and market regulations. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk)

Towards a rigorous mesoscale modeling of reactive flow and transport in an evolving porous medium and its applications to soil science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Nadja; Rupp, Andreas; Knabner, Peter

2016-04-01

Soil is arguably the most prominent example of a natural porous medium that is composed of a porous matrix and a pore space. Within this framework and in terms of soil's heterogeneity, we first consider transport and fluid flow at the pore scale. From there, we develop a mechanistic model and upscale it mathematically to transfer our model from the small scale to that of the mesoscale (laboratory scale). The mathematical framework of (periodic) homogenization (in principal) rigorously facilitates such processes by exactly computing the effective coefficients/parameters by means of the pore geometry and processes. In our model, various small-scale soil processes may be taken into account: molecular diffusion, convection, drift emerging from electric forces, and homogeneous reactions of chemical species in a solvent. Additionally, our model may consider heterogeneous reactions at the porous matrix, thus altering both the porosity and the matrix. Moreover, our model may additionally address biophysical processes, such as the growth of biofilms and how this affects the shape of the pore space. Both of the latter processes result in an intrinsically variable soil structure in space and time. Upscaling such models under the assumption of a locally periodic setting must be performed meticulously to preserve information regarding the complex coupling of processes in the evolving heterogeneous medium. Generally, a micro-macro model emerges that is then comprised of several levels of couplings: Macroscopic equations that describe the transport and fluid flow at the scale of the porous medium (mesoscale) include averaged time- and space-dependent coefficient functions. These functions may be explicitly computed by means of auxiliary cell problems (microscale). Finally, the pore space in which the cell problems are defined is time- and space dependent and its geometry inherits information from the transport equation's solutions. Numerical computations using mixed finite elements and potentially random initial data, e.g. that of porosity, complement our theoretical results. Our investigations contribute to the theoretical understanding of the link between soil formation and soil functions. This general framework may be applied to various problems in soil science for a range of scales, such as the formation and turnover of microaggregates or soil remediation.

Leaf hydraulics II: vascularized tissues.

PubMed

Rockwell, Fulton E; Holbrook, N Michele; Stroock, Abraham D

2014-01-07

Current models of leaf hydration employ an Ohm's law analogy of the leaf as an ideal capacitor, neglecting the resistance to flow between cells, or treat the leaf as a plane sheet with a source of water at fixed potential filling the mid-plane, neglecting the discrete placement of veins as well as their resistance. We develop a model of leaf hydration that considers the average conductance of the vascular network to a representative areole (region bounded by the vascular network), and represent the volume of tissue within the areole as a poroelastic composite of cells and air spaces. Solutions to the 3D flow problem are found by numerical simulation, and these results are then compared to 1D models with exact solutions for a range of leaf geometries, based on a survey of temperate woody plants. We then show that the hydration times given by these solutions are well approximated by a sum of the ideal capacitor and plane sheet times, representing the time for transport through the vasculature and tissue respectively. We then develop scaling factors relating this approximate solution to the 3D model, and examine the dependence of these scaling factors on leaf geometry. Finally, we apply a similar strategy to reduce the dimensions of the steady state problem, in the context of peristomatal transpiration, and consider the relation of transpirational gradients to equilibrium leaf water potential measurements. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-lagged response of carabid species richness and composition to past management practices and landscape context of semi-natural field margins.

PubMed

Alignier, Audrey; Aviron, Stéphanie

2017-12-15

Field margins are key features for the maintenance of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes. Little is known about the effects of management practices of old semi-natural field margins, and their historical dimension regarding past management practices and landscape context is rarely considered. In this paper, the relative influence of recent and past management practices and landscape context (during the last five years) were assessed on the local biodiversity (species richness and composition) of carabid assemblages of field margins in agricultural landscapes of northwestern France. The results showed that recent patterns of carabid species richness and composition were best explained by management practices and landscape context measured four or five years ago. It suggests the existence of a time lag in the response of carabid assemblages to past environmental conditions of field margins. The relative contribution of past management practices and past landscape context varied depending on the spatial scale at which landscape context was taken into account. Carabid species richness was higher in grazed or sprayed field margins probably due to increased heterogeneity in habitat conditions. Field margins surrounded by grasslands and crops harbored species associated with open habitats whilst forest species dominated field margins surrounded by woodland. Landscape effect was higher at fine spatial scale, within 50 m around field margins. The present study highlights the importance of considering time-lagged responses of biodiversity when managing environment. It also suggests that old semi-natural field margins should not be considered as undisturbed habitats but more as management units being part of farming activities in agricultural landscapes, as for arable fields. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Generation of Spatiotemporal Rainfall Events for Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diederen, D.; Liu, Y.; Gouldby, B.; Diermanse, F.

2017-12-01

Current flood risk analyses that only consider peaks of hydrometeorological forcing variables have limitations regarding their representation of reality. Simplistic assumptions regarding antecedent conditions are required, often different sources of flooding are considered in isolation, and the complex temporal and spatial evolution of the events is not considered. Mid-latitude storms, governed by large scale climatic conditions, often exhibit a high degree of temporal dependency, for example. For sustainable flood risk management, that accounts appropriately for climate change, it is desirable for flood risk analyses to reflect reality more appropriately. Analysis of risk mitigation measures and comparison of their relative performance is therefore likely to be more robust and lead to improved solutions. We provide a new framework for the provision of boundary conditions to flood risk analyses that more appropriately reflects reality. The boundary conditions capture the temporal dependencies of complex storms whilst preserving the extreme values and associated spatial dependencies. We demonstrate the application of this framework to generate a synthetic rainfall events time series boundary condition set from reanalysis rainfall data (CFSR) on the continental scale. We define spatiotemporal clusters of rainfall as events, extract hydrological parameters for each event, generate synthetic parameter sets with a multivariate distribution with a focus on the joint tail probability [Heffernan and Tawn, 2004], and finally create synthetic events from the generated synthetic parameters. We highlight the stochastic integration of (a) spatiotemporal features, e.g. event occurrence intensity over space-time, or time to previous event, which we use for the spatial placement and sequencing of the synthetic events, and (b) value-specific parameters, e.g. peak intensity and event extent. We contrast this to more traditional approaches to highlight the significant improvements in terms of representing the reality of extreme flood events.

Drought impact assessment from monitoring the seasonality of vegetation condition using long-term time-series satellite images: a case study of Mt. Kenya region.

PubMed

Song, Youngkeun; Njoroge, John B; Morimoto, Yukihiro

2013-05-01

Drought-induced anomalies in vegetation condition over wide areas can be observed by using time-series satellite remote sensing data. Previous methods to assess the anomalies may include limitations in considering (1) the seasonality in terms of each vegetation-cover type, (2) cumulative damage during the drought event, and (3) the application to various types of land cover. This study proposed an improved methodology to assess drought impact from the annual vegetation responses, and discussed the result in terms of diverse landscape mosaics in the Mt. Kenya region (0.4° N 35.8° E ~ 1.6° S 38.4° E). From the 30-year annual rainfall records at the six meteorological stations in the study area, we identified 2000 as the drought year and 2001, 2004, and 2007 as the normal precipitation years. The time-series profiles of vegetation condition in the drought and normal precipitation years were obtained from the values of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI; Huete et al. 2002), which were acquired from Terra MODIS remote sensing dataset (MOD13Q1) taken every 16 days at the scale of 250-m spatial resolution. The drought impact was determined by integrating the annual differences in EVI profiles between drought and normal conditions, per pixel based on nearly same day of year. As a result, we successfully described the distribution of landscape vulnerability to drought, considering the seasonality of each vegetation-cover type at every MODIS pixel. This result will contribute to the large-scale landscape management of Mt. Kenya region. Future study should improve this method by considering land-use change occurred during the long-term monitoring period.

Development of a New Punch Head Shape to Replicate Scale-Up Issues on a Laboratory Tablet Press III: Replicating sticking phenomenon using the SAS punch and evaluation by checking the tablet surface using 3D laser scanning microscope.

PubMed

Ito, Manabu; Aoki, Shigeru; Uchiyama, Jumpei; Yamato, Keisuke

2018-04-20

Sticking is a common observation in the scale-up stage on the punch tip using a commercial tableting machine. The difference in the total compression time between a laboratory and a commercial tableting machine is considered one of the main root causes of scale up issues in the tableting processes. The proposed Size Adjusted for Scale-up (SAS) punch can be used to adjust the consolidation and dwell times for commercial tableting machine. As a result, the sticking phenomenon is able to be replicated at the pilot scale stage. As reported in this paper, the quantification of sticking was measured using a 3D laser scanning microscope to check the tablet surface. It was shown that the sticking area decreased with the addition of magnesium stearate in the formulation, but the sticking depth was not affected by the additional amount of magnesium stearate. It is proposed that use of a 3D laser scanning microscope can be applied to evaluate sticking as a process analytical technology (PAT) tool and so sticking can be monitored continuously without stopping the machine. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The chemical evolution of molecular clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iglesias, E.

1977-01-01

The nonequilibrium chemistry of dense molecular clouds (10,000 to 1 million hydrogen molecules per cu cm) is studied in the framework of a model that includes the latest published chemical data and most of the recent theoretical advances. In this model the only important external source of ionization is assumed to be high-energy cosmic-ray bombardment; standard charge-transfer reactions are taken into account as well as reactions that transfer charge from molecular ions to trace-metal atoms. Schemes are proposed for the synthesis of such species as NCO, HNCO, and CN. The role played by adsorption and condensation of molecules on the surface of dust grains is investigated, and effects on the chemical evolution of a dense molecular cloud are considered which result from varying the total density or the elemental abundances and from assuming negligible or severe condensation of gaseous species on dust grains. It is shown that the chemical-equilibrium time scale is given approximately by the depletion times of oxygen and nitrogen when the condensation efficiency is negligible; that this time scale is probably in the range from 1 to 4 million years, depending on the elemental composition and initial conditions in the cloud; and that this time scale is insensitive to variations in the total density.

Optimization and comprehensive characterization of metal hydride based hydrogen storage systems using in-situ Neutron Radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Börries, S.; Metz, O.; Pranzas, P. K.; Bellosta von Colbe, J. M.; Bücherl, T.; Dornheim, M.; Klassen, T.; Schreyer, A.

2016-10-01

For the storage of hydrogen, complex metal hydrides are considered as highly promising with respect to capacity, reversibility and safety. The optimization of corresponding storage tanks demands a precise and time-resolved investigation of the hydrogen distribution in scaled-up metal hydride beds. In this study it is shown that in situ fission Neutron Radiography provides unique insights into the spatial distribution of hydrogen even for scaled-up compacts and therewith enables a direct study of hydrogen storage tanks. A technique is introduced for the precise quantification of both time-resolved data and a priori material distribution, allowing inter alia for an optimization of compacts manufacturing process. For the first time, several macroscopic fields are combined which elucidates the great potential of Neutron Imaging for investigations of metal hydrides by going further than solely 'imaging' the system: A combination of in-situ Neutron Radiography, IR-Thermography and thermodynamic quantities can reveal the interdependency of different driving forces for a scaled-up sodium alanate pellet by means of a multi-correlation analysis. A decisive and time-resolved, complex influence of material packing density is derived. The results of this study enable a variety of new investigation possibilities that provide essential information on the optimization of future hydrogen storage tanks.

Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

2017-04-01

At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the large scale pattern, can provide related compact and meaningful information. In addition, the availability for the area of interest of a 20-year long dataset of directional spectra (in frequency and direction) offers an independent, but theoretically corresponding and significantly long dataset, allowing to penetrate the wave problem through different perspectives. In particular, we investigate the contribution of the individual wave systems that modulate the variability of waves in the Adriatic Sea. A characterization of wave conditions based on wave spectra in fact brings out a more detailed description of the different wave regimes, their associated meteorological conditions and their variation in time and geographical space.

Compounding approach for univariate time series with nonstationary variances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, Rudi; Barkhofen, Sonja; Guhr, Thomas; Stöckmann, Hans-Jürgen; Kuhl, Ulrich

2015-12-01

A defining feature of nonstationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent variances. To model the long-term statistical behavior, we compound the local distribution with the distribution of its parameters. Here, we consider two concrete, but diverse, examples of such nonstationary systems: the turbulent air flow of a fan and a time series of foreign exchange rates. Our main focus is to empirically determine the appropriate parameter distribution for the compounding approach. To this end, we extract the relevant time scales by decomposing the time signals into windows and determine the distribution function of the thus obtained local variances.

Compounding approach for univariate time series with nonstationary variances.

PubMed

Schäfer, Rudi; Barkhofen, Sonja; Guhr, Thomas; Stöckmann, Hans-Jürgen; Kuhl, Ulrich

2015-12-01

A defining feature of nonstationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent variances. To model the long-term statistical behavior, we compound the local distribution with the distribution of its parameters. Here, we consider two concrete, but diverse, examples of such nonstationary systems: the turbulent air flow of a fan and a time series of foreign exchange rates. Our main focus is to empirically determine the appropriate parameter distribution for the compounding approach. To this end, we extract the relevant time scales by decomposing the time signals into windows and determine the distribution function of the thus obtained local variances.

A dynamic multi-scale Markov model based methodology for remaining life prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Jihong; Guo, Chaozhong; Wang, Xing

2011-05-01

The ability to accurately predict the remaining life of partially degraded components is crucial in prognostics. In this paper, a performance degradation index is designed using multi-feature fusion techniques to represent deterioration severities of facilities. Based on this indicator, an improved Markov model is proposed for remaining life prediction. Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) algorithm is employed to perform state division for Markov model in order to avoid the uncertainty of state division caused by the hard division approach. Considering the influence of both historical and real time data, a dynamic prediction method is introduced into Markov model by a weighted coefficient. Multi-scale theory is employed to solve the state division problem of multi-sample prediction. Consequently, a dynamic multi-scale Markov model is constructed. An experiment is designed based on a Bently-RK4 rotor testbed to validate the dynamic multi-scale Markov model, experimental results illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology.

Development of internalizing problems from adolescence to emerging adulthood: Accounting for heterotypic continuity with vertical scaling.

PubMed

Petersen, Isaac T; Lindhiem, Oliver; LeBeau, Brandon; Bates, John E; Pettit, Gregory S; Lansford, Jennifer E; Dodge, Kenneth A

2018-03-01

Manifestations of internalizing problems, such as specific symptoms of anxiety and depression, can change across development, even if individuals show strong continuity in rank-order levels of internalizing problems. This illustrates the concept of heterotypic continuity, and raises the question of whether common measures might be construct-valid for one age but not another. This study examines mean-level changes in internalizing problems across a long span of development at the same time as accounting for heterotypic continuity by using age-appropriate, changing measures. Internalizing problems from age 14-24 were studied longitudinally in a community sample (N = 585), using Achenbach's Youth Self-Report (YSR) and Young Adult Self-Report (YASR). Heterotypic continuity was evaluated with an item response theory (IRT) approach to vertical scaling, linking different measures over time to be on the same scale, as well as with a Thurstone scaling approach. With vertical scaling, internalizing problems peaked in mid-to-late adolescence and showed a group-level decrease from adolescence to early adulthood, a change that would not have been seen with the approach of using only age-common items. Individuals' trajectories were sometimes different than would have been seen with the common-items approach. Findings support the importance of considering heterotypic continuity when examining development and vertical scaling to account for heterotypic continuity with changing measures. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Current challenges for pre-earthquake electromagnetic emissions: shedding light from micro-scale plastic flow, granular packings, phase transitions and self-affinity notion of fracture process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftaxias, K.; Potirakis, S. M.

2013-10-01

Are there credible electromagnetic (EM) potential earthquake (EQ) precursors? This a question debated in the scientific community and there may be legitimate reasons for the critical views. The negative view concerning the existence of EM potential precursors is enhanced by features that accompany their observation which are considered as paradox ones, namely, these signals: (i) are not observed at the time of EQs occurrence and during the aftershock period, (ii) are not accompanied by large precursory strain changes, (iii) are not accompanied by simultaneous geodetic or seismological precursors and (iv) their traceability is considered problematic. In this work, the detected candidate EM potential precursors are studied through a shift in thinking towards the basic science findings relative to granular packings, micron-scale plastic flow, interface depinning, fracture size effects, concepts drawn from phase transitions, self-affine notion of fracture and faulting process, universal features of fracture surfaces, recent high quality laboratory studies, theoretical models and numerical simulations. We try to contribute to the establishment of strict criteria for the definition of an emerged EM anomaly as a possibly EQ-related one, and to the explanation of potential precursory EM features which have been considered as paradoxes. A three-stage model for EQ generation by means of pre-EQ fracture-induced EM emissions is proposed. The claim that the observed EM potential precursors may permit a real-time and step-by-step monitoring of the EQ generation is tested.

Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting using Spatial-scale Decomposition Method for Urban Flood Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Lee, B.; Nakakita, E.; Lee, G.

2016-12-01

Recent climate changes and abnormal weather phenomena have resulted in increased occurrences of localized torrential rainfall. Urban areas in Korea have suffered from localized heavy rainfall, including the notable Seoul flood disaster in 2010 and 2011. The urban hydrological environment has changed in relation to precipitation, such as reduced concentration time, a decreased storage rate, and increased peak discharge. These changes have altered and accelerated the severity of damage to urban areas. In order to prevent such urban flash flood damages, we have to secure the lead time for evacuation through the improvement of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). The purpose of this research is to improve the QPF products using spatial-scale decomposition method for considering the life time of storm and to assess the accuracy between traditional QPF method and proposed method in terms of urban flood management. The layout of this research is as below. First, this research applies the image filtering to separate the spatial-scale of rainfall field. Second, the separated small and large-scale rainfall fields are extrapolated by each different forecasting method. Third, forecasted rainfall fields are combined at each lead time. Finally, results of this method are evaluated and compared with the results of uniform advection model for urban flood modeling. It is expected that urban flood information using improved QPF will help to reduce casualties and property damage caused by urban flooding through this research.

Magnitude and sign of long-range correlated time series: Decomposition and surrogate signal generation.

PubMed

Gómez-Extremera, Manuel; Carpena, Pedro; Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Bernaola-Galván, Pedro A

2016-04-01

We systematically study the scaling properties of the magnitude and sign of the fluctuations in correlated time series, which is a simple and useful approach to distinguish between systems with different dynamical properties but the same linear correlations. First, we decompose artificial long-range power-law linearly correlated time series into magnitude and sign series derived from the consecutive increments in the original series, and we study their correlation properties. We find analytical expressions for the correlation exponent of the sign series as a function of the exponent of the original series. Such expressions are necessary for modeling surrogate time series with desired scaling properties. Next, we study linear and nonlinear correlation properties of series composed as products of independent magnitude and sign series. These surrogate series can be considered as a zero-order approximation to the analysis of the coupling of magnitude and sign in real data, a problem still open in many fields. We find analytical results for the scaling behavior of the composed series as a function of the correlation exponents of the magnitude and sign series used in the composition, and we determine the ranges of magnitude and sign correlation exponents leading to either single scaling or to crossover behaviors. Finally, we obtain how the linear and nonlinear properties of the composed series depend on the correlation exponents of their magnitude and sign series. Based on this information we propose a method to generate surrogate series with controlled correlation exponent and multifractal spectrum.

Evolution of Vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostrovsky, Mikhail

The evolution of photoreception, giving rise to eye, offers a kaleidoscopic view on selection acting at both the organ and molecular levels. The molecular level is mainly considered in the lecture. The greatest progress to date has been made in relation to the opsin visual pigments. Opsins appeared before eyes did. Two- and three-dimensional organization for rhodopsin in the rod outer segment disk membrane, as well as molecular mechanisms of visual pigments spectral tuning, photoisomerization and also opsin as a G-protein coupled receptor are considered. Molecular mechanisms of visual pigments spectral tuning, namely switching of chromophore (physiological time scale) and amino acid changes in the chromophore site of opsin (evolutionary time scale) is considered in the lecture. Photoisomerization of rhodopsin chromophore, 11-cis retinal is the only photochemical reaction in vision. The reaction is extemely fast (less that 200 fs) and high efficient (. is 0.65). The rhodopsin photolysis and kinetics of the earlier products appearance, photo- and bathorhodopsin, is considered. It is known that light is not only a carrier of information, but also a risk factor of damage to the eye. This photobiological paradox of vision is mainly due to the nature of rhodopsin chromophore. Photooxidation is the base of the paradox. All factors present in the phototrceptor cells to initiate free-radical photooxidation: photosensitizers, oxygen and substrates of oxidation: lipids and proteins (opsin). That is why photoprotective system of the eye structures appeared in the course of evolution. Three lines of protective system to prevent light damage to the retina and retina pigment epithelium is known: permanent renewal of rod and cone outer segment, powerful antioxidant system and optical media as cut-off filters where the lens is a key component. The molecular mechanisms of light damage to the eye and photoprotective system of the eye is considered in the lecture. The molecular mechanisms of phototransduction in vertebrates eye is also briefly considered in the lecture. Evolution of vision is an enormous subject for thought and investigation. In the postgenomic era evolutionary molecular physiology as a whole and evolutionary molecular physiology of vision can be considered as a key approach for understanding how genome is working.

Complex Processes from Dynamical Architectures with Time-Scale Hierarchy

PubMed Central

Perdikis, Dionysios; Huys, Raoul; Jirsa, Viktor

2011-01-01

The idea that complex motor, perceptual, and cognitive behaviors are composed of smaller units, which are somehow brought into a meaningful relation, permeates the biological and life sciences. However, no principled framework defining the constituent elementary processes has been developed to this date. Consequently, functional configurations (or architectures) relating elementary processes and external influences are mostly piecemeal formulations suitable to particular instances only. Here, we develop a general dynamical framework for distinct functional architectures characterized by the time-scale separation of their constituents and evaluate their efficiency. Thereto, we build on the (phase) flow of a system, which prescribes the temporal evolution of its state variables. The phase flow topology allows for the unambiguous classification of qualitatively distinct processes, which we consider to represent the functional units or modes within the dynamical architecture. Using the example of a composite movement we illustrate how different architectures can be characterized by their degree of time scale separation between the internal elements of the architecture (i.e. the functional modes) and external interventions. We reveal a tradeoff of the interactions between internal and external influences, which offers a theoretical justification for the efficient composition of complex processes out of non-trivial elementary processes or functional modes. PMID:21347363

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gur, Sourav; Frantziskonis, George N.; Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Here, we report results from a numerical study of multi-time-scale bistable dynamics for CO oxidation on a catalytic surface in a flowing, well-mixed gas stream. The problem is posed in terms of surface and gas-phase submodels that dynamically interact in the presence of stochastic perturbations, reflecting the impact of molecular-scale fluctuations on the surface and turbulence in the gas. Wavelet-based methods are used to encode and characterize the temporal dynamics produced by each submodel and detect the onset of sudden state shifts (bifurcations) caused by nonlinear kinetics. When impending state shifts are detected, a more accurate but computationally expensive integrationmore » scheme can be used. This appears to make it possible, at least in some cases, to decrease the net computational burden associated with simulating multi-time-scale, nonlinear reacting systems by limiting the amount of time in which the more expensive integration schemes are required. Critical to achieving this is being able to detect unstable temporal transitions such as the bistable shifts in the example problem considered here. Lastly, our results indicate that a unique wavelet-based algorithm based on the Lipschitz exponent is capable of making such detections, even under noisy conditions, and may find applications in critical transition detection problems beyond catalysis.« less

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

1987-01-01

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method is presented. In the model, the effect of the ratio of the production rate to the dissipation rate on eddy viscosity is modeled by use of the multiple-time-scales and a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum. The concept of a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum and the rest of the model details are based on the previously reported algebraic stress turbulence model. Example problems considered include: a fully developed channel flow, a plane jet exhausting into a moving stream, a wall jet flow, and a weakly coupled wake-boundary layer interaction flow. The computational results compared favorably with those obtained by using the algebraic stress turbulence model as well as experimental data. The present turbulence model, as well as the algebraic stress turbulence model, yielded significantly improved computational results for the complex turbulent boundary layer flows, such as the wall jet flow and the wake boundary layer interaction flow, compared with available computational results obtained by using the standard kappa-epsilon turbulence model.

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

1989-01-01

A multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method is presented. In the model, the effect of the ratio of the production rate to the dissipation rate on eddy viscosity is modeled by use of the multiple-time-scales and a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum. The concept of a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum and the rest of the model details are based on the previously reported algebraic stress turbulence model. Example problems considered include: a fully developed channel flow, a plane jet exhausting into a moving stream, a wall jet flow, and a weakly coupled wake-boundary layer interaction flow. The computational results compared favorably with those obtained by using the algebraic stress turbulence model as well as experimental data. The present turbulence model, as well as the algebraic stress turbulence model, yielded significantly improved computational results for the complex turbulent boundary layer flows, such as the wall jet flow and the wake boundary layer interaction flow, compared with available computational results obtained by using the standard kappa-epsilon turbulence model.

Road Network State Estimation Using Random Forest Ensemble Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Yi; Edara, Praveen; Chang, Yohan

Network-scale travel time prediction not only enables traffic management centers (TMC) to proactively implement traffic management strategies, but also allows travelers make informed decisions about route choices between various origins and destinations. In this paper, a random forest estimator was proposed to predict travel time in a network. The estimator was trained using two years of historical travel time data for a case study network in St. Louis, Missouri. Both temporal and spatial effects were considered in the modeling process. The random forest models predicted travel times accurately during both congested and uncongested traffic conditions. The computational times for themore » models were low, thus useful for real-time traffic management and traveler information applications.« less

On the linearity of tracer bias around voids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollina, Giorgia; Hamaus, Nico; Dolag, Klaus; Weller, Jochen; Baldi, Marco; Moscardini, Lauro

2017-07-01

The large-scale structure of the Universe can be observed only via luminous tracers of the dark matter. However, the clustering statistics of tracers are biased and depend on various properties, such as their host-halo mass and assembly history. On very large scales, this tracer bias results in a constant offset in the clustering amplitude, known as linear bias. Towards smaller non-linear scales, this is no longer the case and tracer bias becomes a complicated function of scale and time. We focus on tracer bias centred on cosmic voids, I.e. depressions of the density field that spatially dominate the Universe. We consider three types of tracers: galaxies, galaxy clusters and active galactic nuclei, extracted from the hydrodynamical simulation Magneticum Pathfinder. In contrast to common clustering statistics that focus on auto-correlations of tracers, we find that void-tracer cross-correlations are successfully described by a linear bias relation. The tracer-density profile of voids can thus be related to their matter-density profile by a single number. We show that it coincides with the linear tracer bias extracted from the large-scale auto-correlation function and expectations from theory, if sufficiently large voids are considered. For smaller voids we observe a shift towards higher values. This has important consequences on cosmological parameter inference, as the problem of unknown tracer bias is alleviated up to a constant number. The smallest scales in existing data sets become accessible to simpler models, providing numerous modes of the density field that have been disregarded so far, but may help to further reduce statistical errors in constraining cosmology.

In situ measurements of wind and current speed and relationship between output power and turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duran Medina, Olmo; Schmitt, François G.; Sentchev, Alexei; Calif, Rudy

2015-04-01

In a context of energy transition, wind and tidal energy are sources of clean energy with the potential of partially satisfying the growing demand. The main problem of this type of energy, and other types of renewable energy remains the discontinuity of the electric power produced in different scales, inducing large fluctuations also called intermittency. This intermittency of wind and tidal energy is inherent to the turbulent nature of wind and marine currents. We consider this intermittent power production in strong relation with the turbulent intermittency of the resource. The turbulence theory is multifractal energy cascades models, a classic in physics of turbulence. From earlier studies in atmospheric sciences, we learn that wind speed and the aggregate power output are intermittent and multifractal over a wide range of scales [Calif and Schmitt 2014]. We want to extend this study to a marine current turbine and compare the scaling properties for those renewable energy sources. We consider here coupling between simultaneous velocity time series and output power from a wind turbine and a marine current turbine. Wind turbine data were obtained from Denmark and marine current data from Western Scheldt, Belgium where a prototype of a vertical and horizontal marine current turbines are tested. After an estimation of their Fourier density power spectra, we study their scaling properties in Kolmogorov's theory and the framework of fully developed turbulence. Hence, we employ a Hilbert-based methodology, namely arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analysis [Calif et al. 2013a, 2013b] to characterize the intermittent property of the wind and marine current velocity in order to characterize the intermittent nature of the fluid. This method is used in order to obtain the spectrum and the corresponding power law for non-linear and non-stationary time series. The goal is to study the non-linear transfer characteristics in a multi-scale and multi-intensity framework.

Spanning the scales of mechanical metamaterials using time domain simulations in transformed crystals, graphene flakes and structured soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aznavourian, Ronald; Puvirajesinghe, Tania M.; Brûlé, Stéphane; Enoch, Stefan; Guenneau, Sébastien

2017-11-01

We begin with a brief historical survey of discoveries of quasi-crystals and graphene, and then introduce the concept of transformation crystallography, which consists of the application of geometric transforms to periodic structures. We consider motifs with three-fold, four-fold and six-fold symmetries according to the crystallographic restriction theorem. Furthermore, we define motifs with five-fold symmetry such as quasi-crystals generated by a cut-and-projection method from periodic structures in higher-dimensional space. We analyze elastic wave propagation in the transformed crystals and (Penrose-type) quasi-crystals with the finite difference time domain freeware SimSonic. We consider geometric transforms underpinning the design of seismic cloaks with square, circular, elliptical and peanut shapes in the context of honeycomb crystals that can be viewed as scaled-up versions of graphene. Interestingly, the use of morphing techniques leads to the design of cloaks with interpolated geometries reminiscent of Victor Vasarely’s artwork. Employing the case of transformed graphene-like (honeycomb) structures allows one to draw useful analogies between large-scale seismic metamaterials such as soils structured with columns of concrete or grout with soil and nanoscale biochemical metamaterials. We further identify similarities in designs of cloaks for elastodynamic and hydrodynamic waves and cloaks for diffusion (heat or mass) processes, as these are underpinned by geometric transforms. Experimental data extracted from field test analysis of soil structured with boreholes demonstrates the application of crystallography to large scale phononic crystals, coined as seismic metamaterials, as they might exhibit low frequency stop bands. This brings us to the outlook of mechanical metamaterials, with control of phonon emission in graphene through extreme anisotropy, attenuation of vibrations of suspension bridges via low frequency stop bands and the concept of transformed meta-cities. We conclude that these novel materials hold strong applications spanning different disciplines or across different scales from biophysics to geophysics.

Using Remotely Sensed Information for Near Real-Time Landslide Hazard Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2013-01-01

The increasing availability of remotely sensed precipitation and surface products provides a unique opportunity to explore how landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment may be approached at larger spatial scales with higher resolution remote sensing products. A prototype global landslide hazard assessment framework has been developed to evaluate how landslide susceptibility and satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used to identify potential landslide conditions in near-real time. Preliminary analysis of this algorithm suggests that forecasting errors are geographically variable due to the resolution and accuracy of the current susceptibility map and the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates. This research is currently working to improve the algorithm through considering higher spatial and temporal resolution landslide susceptibility information and testing different rainfall triggering thresholds, antecedent rainfall scenarios, and various surface products at regional and global scales.

Biological production models as elements of coupled, atmosphere-ocean models for climate research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha

1991-01-01

Process models of phytoplankton production are discussed with respect to their suitability for incorporation into global-scale numerical ocean circulation models. Exact solutions are given for integrals over the mixed layer and the day of analytic, wavelength-independent models of primary production. Within this class of model, the bias incurred by using a triangular approximation (rather than a sinusoidal one) to the variation of surface irradiance through the day is computed. Efficient computation algorithms are given for the nonspectral models. More exact calculations require a spectrally sensitive treatment. Such models exist but must be integrated numerically over depth and time. For these integrations, resolution in wavelength, depth, and time are considered and recommendations made for efficient computation. The extrapolation of the one-(spatial)-dimension treatment to large horizontal scale is discussed.

Stochastic modeling of stock price process induced from the conjugate heat equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paeng, Seong-Hun

2015-02-01

Currency can be considered as a ruler for values of commodities. Then the price is the measured value by the ruler. We can suppose that inflation and variation of exchange rate are caused by variation of the scale of the ruler. In geometry, variation of the scale means that the metric is time-dependent. The conjugate heat equation is the modified heat equation which satisfies the heat conservation law for the time-dependent metric space. We propose a new model of stock prices by using the stochastic process whose transition probability is determined by the kernel of the conjugate heat equation. Our model of stock prices shows how the volatility term is affected by inflation and exchange rate. This model modifies the Black-Scholes equation in light of inflation and exchange rate.

A Hierarchical and Dynamic Seascape Framework for Scaling and Comparing Ocean Biodiversity Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Montes, E.; Santora, J. A.; Chavez, F.; Messié, M.; Doney, S. C.

2016-02-01

The pelagic ocean is a complex system in which physical, chemical and biological processes interact to shape patterns on multiple spatial and temporal scales and levels of ecological organization. Monitoring and management of marine seascapes must consider a hierarchical and dynamic mosaic, where the boundaries, extent, and location of features change with time. As part of a Marine Biodiversity Observing Network demonstration project, we conducted a multiscale classification of dynamic coastal seascapes in the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico using multivariate satellite and modeled data. Synoptic patterns were validated using mooring and ship-based observations that spanned multiple trophic levels and were collected as part of several long-term monitoring programs, including the Monterey Bay and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuaries. Seascape extent and habitat diversity varied as a function of both seasonal and interannual forcing. We discuss the patterns of in situ observations in the context of seascape dynamics and the effect on rarefaction, spatial patchiness, and tracking and comparing ecosystems through time. A seascape framework presents an effective means to translate local biodiversity measurements to broader spatiotemporal scales, scales relevant for modeling the effects of global change and enabling whole-ecosystem management in the dynamic ocean.

Nonequilibrium steady state of a weakly-driven Kardar–Parisi–Zhang equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meerson, Baruch; Sasorov, Pavel V.; Vilenkin, Arkady

2018-05-01

We consider an infinite interface of d  >  2 dimensions, governed by the Kardar–Parisi–Zhang (KPZ) equation with a weak Gaussian noise which is delta-correlated in time and has short-range spatial correlations. We study the probability distribution of the interface height H at a point of the substrate, when the interface is initially flat. We show that, in stark contrast with the KPZ equation in d  <  2, this distribution approaches a non-equilibrium steady state. The time of relaxation toward this state scales as the diffusion time over the correlation length of the noise. We study the steady-state distribution using the optimal-fluctuation method. The typical, small fluctuations of height are Gaussian. For these fluctuations the activation path of the system coincides with the time-reversed relaxation path, and the variance of can be found from a minimization of the (nonlocal) equilibrium free energy of the interface. In contrast, the tails of are nonequilibrium, non-Gaussian and strongly asymmetric. To determine them we calculate, analytically and numerically, the activation paths of the system, which are different from the time-reversed relaxation paths. We show that the slower-decaying tail of scales as , while the faster-decaying tail scales as . The slower-decaying tail has important implications for the statistics of directed polymers in random potential.

The influence of coping styles on long-term employment in multiple sclerosis: A prospective study.

PubMed

Grytten, Nina; Skår, Anne Br; Aarseth, Jan Harald; Assmus, Jorg; Farbu, Elisabeth; Lode, Kirsten; Nyland, Harald I; Smedal, Tori; Myhr, Kjell Morten

2017-06-01

The aim was to investigate predictive values of coping styles, clinical and demographic factors on time to unemployment in patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) during 1998-2002 in Norway. All patients ( N = 108) diagnosed with MS 1998-2002 in Hordaland and Rogaland counties, Western Norway, were invited to participate in the long-term follow-up study in 2002. Baseline recordings included disability scoring (Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)), fatigue (Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS)), depression (Beck Depression Inventory (BDI)), and questionnaire assessing coping (the Dispositional Coping Styles Scale (COPE)). Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with unemployed at baseline, and Cox regression analysis to identify factors at baseline associated with time to unemployment during follow-up. In all, 41 (44%) were employed at baseline. After 13 years follow-up in 2015, mean disease duration of 22 years, 16 (17%) were still employed. Median time from baseline to unemployment was 6 years (±5). Older age at diagnosis, female gender, and depression were associated with patients being unemployed at baseline. Female gender, long disease duration, and denial as avoidant coping strategy at baseline predicted shorter time to unemployment. Avoidant coping style, female gender, and longer disease duration were associated with shorter time to unemployment. These factors should be considered when advising patients on MS and future employment.

Dynamical phase transition in the simplest molecular chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malyshev, V. A.; Muzychka, S. A.

2014-04-01

We consider the dynamics of the simplest chain of a large number N of particles. In the double scaling limit, we find the partition of the parameter space into two domains: for one domain, the supremum over the time interval ( 0,∞) of the relative extension of the chain tends to 1 as N → ∞, and for the other domain, to infinity.

Impacts of high resolution model downscaling in coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bricheno, Lucy; Wolf, Judith

2013-04-01

With model development and cheaper computational resources ocean forecasts are becoming readily available, high resolution coastal forecasting is now a reality. This can only be achieved, however, by downscaling global or basin-scale products such as the MyOcean reanalyses and forecasts. These model products have resolution ranging from 1/16th - 1/4 degree, which are often insufficient for coastal scales, but can provide initialisation and boundary data. We present applications of downscaling the MyOcean products for use in shelf-seas and the nearshore. We will address the question 'Do coastal predictions improve with higher resolution modelling?' with a few focused examples, while also discussing what is meant by an improved result. Increasing resolution appears to be an obvious route for getting more accurate forecasts in operational coastal models. However, when models resolve finer scales, this may lead to the introduction of high-frequency variability which is not necessarily deterministic. Thus a flow may appear more realistic by generating eddies but the simple statistics like rms error and correlation may become less good because the model variability is not exactly in phase with the observations (Hoffman et al., 1995). By deciding on a specific process to simulate (rather than concentrating on reducing rms error) we can better assess the improvements gained by downscaling. In this work we will select two processes which are dominant in our case-study site: Liverpool Bay. Firstly we consider the magnitude and timing of a peak in tide-surge elevations, by separating out the event into timing (or displacement) and intensity (or amplitude) errors. The model can thus be evaluated on how well it predicts the timing and magnitude of the surge. The second important characteristic of Liverpool Bay is the position of the freshwater front. To evaluate model performance in this case, the location, sharpness, and temperature difference across the front will be considered. We will show that by using intelligent metrics designed with a physical process in mind, we can learn more about model performance than by considering 'bulk' statistics alone. R. M. Hoffman and Z. Liu and J-F. Louic and C. Grassotti (1995) 'Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors' Monthly Weather Review 123: 2758-2770

The dynamics of oceanic fronts. I - The Gulf Stream

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kao, T. W.

1980-01-01

The establishment and maintenance of the mean hydrographic properties of large-scale density fronts in the upper ocean is considered. The dynamics is studied by posing an initial value problem starting with a near-surface discharge of buoyant water with a prescribed density deficit into an ambient stationary fluid of uniform density; full time dependent diffusion and Navier-Stokes equations are then used with constant eddy diffusion and viscosity coefficients, together with a constant Coriolis parameter. Scaling analysis reveals three independent scales of the problem including the radius of deformation of the inertial length, buoyancy length, and diffusive length scales. The governing equations are then suitably scaled and the resulting normalized equations are shown to depend on the Ekman number alone for problems of oceanic interest. It is concluded that the mean Gulf Stream dynamics can be interpreted in terms of a solution of the Navier-Stokes and diffusion equations, with the cross-stream circulation responsible for the maintenance of the front; this mechanism is suggested for the maintenance of the Gulf Stream dynamics.

Comparison of SLAR images and small-scale, low-sun aerial photographs.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, M. M.

1971-01-01

A comparison of side-looking airborne radar (SLAR) images and black and white aerial photos of similar scale and illumination of an area in the Mojave Desert of California shows that aerial photos yield far more information about geology than do SLAR images because of greater resolution, tonal range, and geometric fidelity, and easier use in stereo. Nevertheless, radar can differentiate some materials or surfaces that aerial photos cannot; thus, they should be considered as complementary, rather than competing tools in geologic investigations. The most significant advantage of SLAR, however, is its freedom from the stringent conditions of weather, date, and time that are required by small-scale aerial photos taken with a specified direction and angle of illumination. Indeed, in low latitudes, SLAR is the only way to obtain small-scale images with low illumination from certain directions; moreover, in areas of nearly continuous cloudiness, radar may be the only practical source of small-scale images.

The evolving Planck mass in classically scale-invariant theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kannike, K.; Raidal, M.; Spethmann, C.; Veermäe, H.

2017-04-01

We consider classically scale-invariant theories with non-minimally coupled scalar fields, where the Planck mass and the hierarchy of physical scales are dynamically generated. The classical theories possess a fixed point, where scale invariance is spontaneously broken. In these theories, however, the Planck mass becomes unstable in the presence of explicit sources of scale invariance breaking, such as non-relativistic matter and cosmological constant terms. We quantify the constraints on such classical models from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis that lead to an upper bound on the non-minimal coupling and require trans-Planckian field values. We show that quantum corrections to the scalar potential can stabilise the fixed point close to the minimum of the Coleman-Weinberg potential. The time-averaged motion of the evolving fixed point is strongly suppressed, thus the limits on the evolving gravitational constant from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and other measurements do not presently constrain this class of theories. Field oscillations around the fixed point, if not damped, contribute to the dark matter density of the Universe.

Accounting for microbial habitats in modeling soil organic matter dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chenu, Claire; Garnier, Patricia; Nunan, Naoise; Pot, Valérie; Raynaud, Xavier; Vieublé, Laure; Otten, Wilfred; Falconer, Ruth; Monga, Olivier

2017-04-01

The extreme heterogeneity of soils constituents, architecture and inhabitants at the microscopic scale is increasingly recognized. Microbial communities exist and are active in a complex 3-D physical framework of mineral and organic particles defining pores of various sizes, more or less inter-connected. This results in a frequent spatial disconnection between soil carbon, energy sources and the decomposer organisms and a variety of microhabitats that are more or less suitable for microbial growth and activity. However, current biogeochemical models account for C dynamics at the macroscale (cm, m) and consider time- and spatially averaged relationships between microbial activity and soil characteristics. Different modelling approaches have intended to account for this microscale heterogeneity, based either on considering aggregates as surrogates for microbial habitats, or pores. Innovative modelling approaches are based on an explicit representation of soil structure at the fine scale, i.e. at µm to mm scales: pore architecture and their saturation with water, localization of organic resources and of microorganisms. Three recent models are presented here, that describe the heterotrophic activity of either bacteria or fungi and are based upon different strategies to represent the complex soil pore system (Mosaic, LBios and µFun). These models allow to hierarchize factors of microbial activity in soil's heterogeneous architecture. Present limits of these approaches and challenges are presented, regarding the extensive information required on soils at the microscale and to up-scale microbial functioning from the pore to the core scale.

Evaluation of statistical methods for quantifying fractal scaling in water-quality time series with irregular sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Harman, Ciaran J.; Kirchner, James W.

2018-02-01

River water-quality time series often exhibit fractal scaling, which here refers to autocorrelation that decays as a power law over some range of scales. Fractal scaling presents challenges to the identification of deterministic trends because (1) fractal scaling has the potential to lead to false inference about the statistical significance of trends and (2) the abundance of irregularly spaced data in water-quality monitoring networks complicates efforts to quantify fractal scaling. Traditional methods for estimating fractal scaling - in the form of spectral slope (β) or other equivalent scaling parameters (e.g., Hurst exponent) - are generally inapplicable to irregularly sampled data. Here we consider two types of estimation approaches for irregularly sampled data and evaluate their performance using synthetic time series. These time series were generated such that (1) they exhibit a wide range of prescribed fractal scaling behaviors, ranging from white noise (β = 0) to Brown noise (β = 2) and (2) their sampling gap intervals mimic the sampling irregularity (as quantified by both the skewness and mean of gap-interval lengths) in real water-quality data. The results suggest that none of the existing methods fully account for the effects of sampling irregularity on β estimation. First, the results illustrate the danger of using interpolation for gap filling when examining autocorrelation, as the interpolation methods consistently underestimate or overestimate β under a wide range of prescribed β values and gap distributions. Second, the widely used Lomb-Scargle spectral method also consistently underestimates β. A previously published modified form, using only the lowest 5 % of the frequencies for spectral slope estimation, has very poor precision, although the overall bias is small. Third, a recent wavelet-based method, coupled with an aliasing filter, generally has the smallest bias and root-mean-squared error among all methods for a wide range of prescribed β values and gap distributions. The aliasing method, however, does not itself account for sampling irregularity, and this introduces some bias in the result. Nonetheless, the wavelet method is recommended for estimating β in irregular time series until improved methods are developed. Finally, all methods' performances depend strongly on the sampling irregularity, highlighting that the accuracy and precision of each method are data specific. Accurately quantifying the strength of fractal scaling in irregular water-quality time series remains an unresolved challenge for the hydrologic community and for other disciplines that must grapple with irregular sampling.

The economics of time shared computing: Congestion, user costs and capacity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agnew, C. E.

1982-01-01

Time shared systems permit the fixed costs of computing resources to be spread over large numbers of users. However, bottleneck results in the theory of closed queueing networks can be used to show that this economy of scale will be offset by the increased congestion that results as more users are added to the system. If one considers the total costs, including the congestion cost, there is an optimal number of users for a system which equals the saturation value usually used to define system capacity.

Implications of the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake for ground motion scaling with source, path, and site parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jonathan P.; Midorikawa, Saburoh; Graves, Robert W.; Khodaverdi, Khatareh; Kishida, Tadahiro; Miura, Hiroyuki; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Campbell, Kenneth W.

2013-01-01

The Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki Japan earthquake produced approximately 2,000 ground motion recordings. We consider 1,238 three-component accelerograms corrected with component-specific low-cut filters. The recordings have rupture distances between 44 km and 1,000 km, time-averaged shear wave velocities of VS30 = 90 m/s to 1,900 m/s, and usable response spectral periods of 0.01 sec to >10 sec. The data support the notion that the increase of ground motions with magnitude saturates at large magnitudes. High-frequency ground motions demonstrate faster attenuation with distance in backarc than in forearc regions, which is only captured by one of the four considered ground motion prediction equations for subduction earthquakes. Recordings within 100 km of the fault are used to estimate event terms, which are generally positive (indicating model underprediction) at short periods and zero or negative (overprediction) at long periods. We find site amplification to scale minimally with VS30 at high frequencies, in contrast with other active tectonic regions, but to scale strongly with VS30 at low frequencies.

Floquet–Magnus theory and generic transient dynamics in periodically driven many-body quantum systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuwahara, Tomotaka, E-mail: tomotaka.phys@gmail.com; WPI, Advanced Institute for Materials Research, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8577; Mori, Takashi

2016-04-15

This work explores a fundamental dynamical structure for a wide range of many-body quantum systems under periodic driving. Generically, in the thermodynamic limit, such systems are known to heat up to infinite temperature states in the long-time limit irrespective of dynamical details, which kills all the specific properties of the system. In the present study, instead of considering infinitely long-time scale, we aim to provide a general framework to understand the long but finite time behavior, namely the transient dynamics. In our analysis, we focus on the Floquet–Magnus (FM) expansion that gives a formal expression of the effective Hamiltonian onmore » the system. Although in general the full series expansion is not convergent in the thermodynamics limit, we give a clear relationship between the FM expansion and the transient dynamics. More precisely, we rigorously show that a truncated version of the FM expansion accurately describes the exact dynamics for a certain time-scale. Our theory reveals an experimental time-scale for which non-trivial dynamical phenomena can be reliably observed. We discuss several dynamical phenomena, such as the effect of small integrability breaking, efficient numerical simulation of periodically driven systems, dynamical localization and thermalization. Especially on thermalization, we discuss a generic scenario on the prethermalization phenomenon in periodically driven systems. -- Highlights: •A general framework to describe transient dynamics for periodically driven systems. •The theory is applicable to generic quantum many-body systems including long-range interacting systems. •Physical meaning of the truncation of the Floquet–Magnus expansion is rigorously established. •New mechanism of the prethermalization is proposed. •Revealing an experimental time-scale for which non-trivial dynamical phenomena can be reliably observed.« less

Bayesian Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Estimation at Ungauged Basins Using Climate Information and a Scaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2010-12-01

Flood frequency statistical analysis most often relies on stationary assumptions, where distribution moments (e.g. mean, standard deviation) and associated flood quantiles do not change over time. In this sense, one expects that flood magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence will remain constant as observed in the historical information. However, evidence of inter-annual and decadal climate variability and anthropogenic change as well as an apparent increase in the number and magnitude of flood events across the globe have made the stationary assumption questionable. Here, we show how to estimate flood quantiles (e.g. 100-year flood) at ungauged basins without needing to consider stationarity. A statistical model based on the well known flow-area scaling law is proposed to estimate flood flows at ungauged basins. The slope and intercept scaling law coefficients are assumed time varying and a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to include climate information and reduce parameter uncertainties. Cross-validated results from 34 streamflow gauges located in a nested Basin in Brazil show that the proposed model is able to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged basins with remarkable skills compared with data based estimates using the full record. The model as developed in this work is also able to simulate sequences of flood flows considering global climate changes provided an appropriate climate index developed from the General Circulation Model is used as a predictor. The time varying flood frequency estimates can be used for pricing insurance models, and in a forecast mode for preparations for flooding, and finally, for timing infrastructure investments and location. Non-stationary 95% interval estimation for the 100-year Flood (shaded gray region) and 95% interval for the 100-year flood estimated from data (horizontal dashed and solid lines). The average distribution of the 100-year flood is shown in green in the right side.

The foreign exchange market: return distributions, multifractality, anomalous multifractality and the Epps effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drożdż, Stanisław; Kwapień, Jarosław; Oświȩcimka, Paweł; Rak, Rafał

2010-10-01

We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that the exchange rate return fluctuations for all of the pairs considered are well described by the non-extensive statistics in terms of q-Gaussians. There exist some small quantitative variations in the non-extensivity q-parameter values for different exchange rates (which depend also on the time scales studied), and this can be related to the importance of a given exchange rate in the world's currency trade. Temporal correlations organize the series of returns such that they develop the multifractal characteristics for all of the exchange rates, with a varying degree of symmetry of the singularity spectrum f(α), however. The most symmetric spectrum is identified for the GBP/USD. We also form time series of triangular residual returns and find that the distributions of their fluctuations develop disproportionately heavier tails as compared to small fluctuations, which excludes description in terms of q-Gaussians. The multifractal characteristics of these residual returns reveal such anomalous properties as negative singularity exponents and even negative singularity spectra. Such anomalous multifractal measures have so far been considered in the literature in connection with diffusion-limited aggregation and with turbulence. Studying the cross-correlations among different exchange rates, we found that market inefficiency on short time scales leads to the occurrence of the Epps effect on much longer time scales, but comparable to the ones for the stock market. Although the currency market is much more liquid than the stock markets and has a much greater transaction frequency, the building up of correlations takes up to several hours—a duration that does not differ much from what is observed in the stock markets. This may suggest that non-synchronicity of transactions is not the unique source of the observed effect.

From crystal morphology to molecular and scale crystallography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janner, A.; Janssen, T.

2015-08-01

A number of topics, ranging from morphology of aperiodic crystals to indexed enclosing forms of axial-symmetric proteins, nucleic acids and viruses, have been selected among those investigated by the authors in 50 years of research. The basic symmetries involved in fields like superspace, molecular and scale crystallography, are considered from a personal point of view in their time evolution. A number of specific subjects follow, chosen among a few highlights and presented according to the experience of the authors: snow crystals, calaverite {{AuTe}}2, the incommensurately modulated crystals {{Rb}}2{{ZnBr}}4, {[{N}{({{CH}}3)}4]}2{{ZnCl}}4 and the mitochondrial ferritin.

Scaling laws of strategic behavior and size heterogeneity in agent dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Moro, Esteban; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2008-03-01

We consider the financial market as a model system and study empirically how agents strategically adjust the properties of large orders in order to meet their preference and minimize their impact. We quantify this strategic behavior by detecting scaling relations between the variables characterizing the trading activity of different institutions. We also observe power-law distributions in the investment time horizon, in the number of transactions needed to execute a large order, and in the traded value exchanged by large institutions, and we show that heterogeneity of agents is a key ingredient for the emergence of some aggregate properties characterizing this complex system.

Absolute Scale Quantitative Off-Axis Electron Holography at Atomic Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, Florian; Barthel, Juri; Tavabi, Amir H.; Borghardt, Sven; Kardynal, Beata E.; Dunin-Borkowski, Rafal E.

2018-04-01

An absolute scale match between experiment and simulation in atomic-resolution off-axis electron holography is demonstrated, with unknown experimental parameters determined directly from the recorded electron wave function using an automated numerical algorithm. We show that the local thickness and tilt of a pristine thin WSe2 flake can be measured uniquely, whereas some electron optical aberrations cannot be determined unambiguously for a periodic object. The ability to determine local specimen and imaging parameters directly from electron wave functions is of great importance for quantitative studies of electrostatic potentials in nanoscale materials, in particular when performing in situ experiments and considering that aberrations change over time.

From microseconds to seconds and minutes—time computation in insect hearing

PubMed Central

Hartbauer, Manfred; Römer, Heiner

2014-01-01

The computation of time in the auditory system of insects is of relevance at rather different time scales, covering a large range from microseconds to several minutes. At the one end of this range, only a few microseconds of interaural time differences are available for directional hearing, due to the small distance between the ears, usually considered too small to be processed reliably by simple nervous systems. Synapses of interneurons in the afferent auditory pathway are, however, very sensitive to a time difference of only 1–2 ms provided by the latency shift of afferent activity with changing sound direction. At a much larger time scale of several tens of milliseconds to seconds, time processing is important in the context species recognition, but also for those insects where males produce acoustic signals within choruses, and the temporal relationship between song elements strongly deviates from a random distribution. In these situations, some species exhibit a more or less strict phase relationship of song elements, based on phase response properties of their song oscillator. Here we review evidence on how this may influence mate choice decisions. In the same dimension of some tens of milliseconds we find species of katydids with a duetting communication scheme, where one sex only performs phonotaxis to the other sex if the acoustic response falls within a very short time window after its own call. Such time windows show some features unique to insects, and although its neuronal implementation is unknown so far, the similarity with time processing for target range detection in bat echolocation will be discussed. Finally, the time scale being processed must be extended into the range of many minutes, since some acoustic insects produce singing bouts lasting quite long, and female preferences may be based on total signaling time. PMID:24782783

An efficient grid layout algorithm for biological networks utilizing various biological attributes

PubMed Central

Kojima, Kaname; Nagasaki, Masao; Jeong, Euna; Kato, Mitsuru; Miyano, Satoru

2007-01-01

Background Clearly visualized biopathways provide a great help in understanding biological systems. However, manual drawing of large-scale biopathways is time consuming. We proposed a grid layout algorithm that can handle gene-regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways by considering edge-edge crossing, node-edge crossing, distance measure between nodes, and subcellular localization information from Gene Ontology. Consequently, the layout algorithm succeeded in drastically reducing these crossings in the apoptosis model. However, for larger-scale networks, we encountered three problems: (i) the initial layout is often very far from any local optimum because nodes are initially placed at random, (ii) from a biological viewpoint, human layouts still exceed automatic layouts in understanding because except subcellular localization, it does not fully utilize biological information of pathways, and (iii) it employs a local search strategy in which the neighborhood is obtained by moving one node at each step, and automatic layouts suggest that simultaneous movements of multiple nodes are necessary for better layouts, while such extension may face worsening the time complexity. Results We propose a new grid layout algorithm. To address problem (i), we devised a new force-directed algorithm whose output is suitable as the initial layout. For (ii), we considered that an appropriate alignment of nodes having the same biological attribute is one of the most important factors of the comprehension, and we defined a new score function that gives an advantage to such configurations. For solving problem (iii), we developed a search strategy that considers swapping nodes as well as moving a node, while keeping the order of the time complexity. Though a naïve implementation increases by one order, the time complexity, we solved this difficulty by devising a method that caches differences between scores of a layout and its possible updates. Conclusion Layouts of the new grid layout algorithm are compared with that of the previous algorithm and human layout in an endothelial cell model, three times as large as the apoptosis model. The total cost of the result from the new grid layout algorithm is similar to that of the human layout. In addition, its convergence time is drastically reduced (40% reduction). PMID:17338825

A class of simple bouncing and late-time accelerating cosmologies in f(R) gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuiroukidis, A.

We consider the field equations for a flat FRW cosmological model, given by Eq. (??), in an a priori generic f(R) gravity model and cast them into a, completely normalized and dimensionless, system of ODEs for the scale factor and the function f(R), with respect to the scalar curvature R. It is shown that under reasonable assumptions, namely for power-law functional form for the f(R) gravity model, one can produce simple analytical and numerical solutions describing bouncing cosmological models where in addition there are late-time accelerating. The power-law form for the f(R) gravity model is typically considered in the literature as the most concrete, reasonable, practical and viable assumption [see S. D. Odintsov and V. K. Oikonomou, Phys. Rev. D 90 (2014) 124083, arXiv:1410.8183 [gr-qc

Numerical calculation of ion runaway distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Embréus, O.; Stahl, A.; Hirvijoki, E.

2015-05-15

Ions accelerated by electric fields (so-called runaway ions) in plasmas may explain observations in solar flares and fusion experiments; however, limitations of previous analytic work have prevented definite conclusions. In this work, we describe a numerical solver of the 2D non-relativistic linearized Fokker-Planck equation for ions. It solves the initial value problem in velocity space with a spectral-Eulerian discretization scheme, allowing arbitrary plasma composition and time-varying electric fields and background plasma parameters. The numerical ion distribution function is then used to consider the conditions for runaway ion acceleration in solar flares and tokamak plasmas. Typical time scales and electric fieldsmore » required for ion acceleration are determined for various plasma compositions, ion species, and temperatures, and the potential for excitation of toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes during tokamak disruptions is considered.« less

Analysis of temporal-longitudinal-latitudinal characteristics in the global ionosphere based on tensor rank-1 decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Shikun; Zhang, Hao; Li, Xihai; Li, Yihong; Niu, Chao; Yang, Xiaoyun; Liu, Daizhi

2018-03-01

Combining analyses of spatial and temporal characteristics of the ionosphere is of great significance for scientific research and engineering applications. Tensor decomposition is performed to explore the temporal-longitudinal-latitudinal characteristics in the ionosphere. Three-dimensional tensors are established based on the time series of ionospheric vertical total electron content maps obtained from the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe. To obtain large-scale characteristics of the ionosphere, rank-1 decomposition is used to obtain U^{(1)}, U^{(2)}, and U^{(3)}, which are the resulting vectors for the time, longitude, and latitude modes, respectively. Our initial finding is that the correspondence between the frequency spectrum of U^{(1)} and solar variation indicates that rank-1 decomposition primarily describes large-scale temporal variations in the global ionosphere caused by the Sun. Furthermore, the time lags between the maxima of the ionospheric U^{(2)} and solar irradiation range from 1 to 3.7 h without seasonal dependence. The differences in time lags may indicate different interactions between processes in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. Based on the dataset displayed in the geomagnetic coordinates, the position of the barycenter of U^{(3)} provides evidence for north-south asymmetry (NSA) in the large-scale ionospheric variations. The daily variation in such asymmetry indicates the influences of solar ionization. The diurnal geomagnetic coordinate variations in U^{(3)} show that the large-scale EIA (equatorial ionization anomaly) variations during the day and night have similar characteristics. Considering the influences of geomagnetic disturbance on ionospheric behavior, we select the geomagnetic quiet GIMs to construct the ionospheric tensor. The results indicate that the geomagnetic disturbances have little effect on large-scale ionospheric characteristics.

Multiscale modeling methods in biomechanics.

PubMed

Bhattacharya, Pinaki; Viceconti, Marco

2017-05-01

More and more frequently, computational biomechanics deals with problems where the portion of physical reality to be modeled spans over such a large range of spatial and temporal dimensions, that it is impossible to represent it as a single space-time continuum. We are forced to consider multiple space-time continua, each representing the phenomenon of interest at a characteristic space-time scale. Multiscale models describe a complex process across multiple scales, and account for how quantities transform as we move from one scale to another. This review offers a set of definitions for this emerging field, and provides a brief summary of the most recent developments on multiscale modeling in biomechanics. Of all possible perspectives, we chose that of the modeling intent, which vastly affect the nature and the structure of each research activity. To the purpose we organized all papers reviewed in three categories: 'causal confirmation,' where multiscale models are used as materializations of the causation theories; 'predictive accuracy,' where multiscale modeling is aimed to improve the predictive accuracy; and 'determination of effect,' where multiscale modeling is used to model how a change at one scale manifests in an effect at another radically different space-time scale. Consistent with how the volume of computational biomechanics research is distributed across application targets, we extensively reviewed papers targeting the musculoskeletal and the cardiovascular systems, and covered only a few exemplary papers targeting other organ systems. The review shows a research subdomain still in its infancy, where causal confirmation papers remain the most common. WIREs Syst Biol Med 2017, 9:e1375. doi: 10.1002/wsbm.1375 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2017 The Authors. WIREs Systems Biology and Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Short-term prediction of rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links at EHF band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Montera, L.; Mallet, C.; Barthès, L.; Golé, P.

2008-08-01

This paper shows how nonlinear models originally developed in the finance field can be used to predict rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links operating at the Extremely High Frequencies band (EHF, 20 50 GHz). A common approach to solving this problem is to consider that the prediction error corresponds only to scintillations, whose variance is assumed to be constant. Nevertheless, this assumption does not seem to be realistic because of the heteroscedasticity of error time series: the variance of the prediction error is found to be time-varying and has to be modeled. Since rain attenuation time series behave similarly to certain stocks or foreign exchange rates, a switching ARIMA/GARCH model was implemented. The originality of this model is that not only the attenuation level, but also the error conditional distribution are predicted. It allows an accurate upper-bound of the future attenuation to be estimated in real time that minimizes the cost of Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT) and therefore enables the communication system to reach a high percentage of availability. The performance of the switching ARIMA/GARCH model was estimated using a measurement database of the Olympus satellite 20/30 GHz beacons and this model is shown to outperform significantly other existing models. The model also includes frequency scaling from the downlink frequency to the uplink frequency. The attenuation effects (gases, clouds and rain) are first separated with a neural network and then scaled using specific scaling factors. As to the resulting uplink prediction error, the error contribution of the frequency scaling step is shown to be larger than that of the downlink prediction, indicating that further study should focus on improving the accuracy of the scaling factor.

Evaluation of a simple method for crop evapotranspiration partitioning and comparison of different water use efficiency approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tallec, T.; Rivalland, V.; Jarosz, N.; Boulet, G.; Gentine, P.; Ceschia, E.

2012-04-01

In the current context of climate change, intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation can lead to major modifications of water budgets and water use efficiencies (WUE). Obtaining greater insight into how climatic variability and agricultural practices affect water budgets and their components in croplands is, thus, important for adapting crop management and limiting water losses. The principal aims of this study were 1) to assess the contribution of different components to the agro-ecosystem water budget and 2) to analyze and compare the WUE calculated from ecophysiological (WUEplt), environmental (WUEeco) and agronomical (WUEagro) points of view for various crops during the growing season and for the annual time scale. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CO2 and water flux were performed on winter wheat, maize and sunflower crops at two sites in southwest France: Auradé and Lamasquère. To infer WUEplt, an estimation of plant transpiration (TR) is needed. We then tested a new method for partitioning evapotranspiration (ETR), measured by means of the EC method, into soil evaporation (E) and plant transpiration (TR) based on marginal distribution sampling (MDS). We compared these estimations with calibrated simulations of the ICARE-SVAT double source mechanistic model. The two partitioning methods showed good agreement, demonstrating that MDS is a convenient, simple and robust tool for estimating E with reasonable associated uncertainties. During the growing season, the proportion of E in ETR was approximately one-third and varied mainly with crop leaf area. When calculated on an annual time scale, the proportion of E in ETR reached more than 50%, depending on crop leaf area and the duration and distribution of bare soil within the year. WUEplt values ranged between -4.1 and -5.6 g C kg-1 H2O for maize and winter wheat, respectively, and were strongly dependent on meteorological conditions at the half-hourly, daily and seasonal time scales. When normalized by the vapor pressure deficit to reduce the effect of seasonal climatic variability on WUEplt, maize had the highest efficiency. Absolute WUEeco values on the ecosystem level, including water loss through evaporation and carbon release through ecosystem respiration, were consequently lower than on the stand level. This observation was even more pronounced on an annual time scale than on the growing-season time scale because of bare soil periods. Winter wheat showed the highest absolute values of WUEeco, and sunflower showed the lowest. To account for carbon input into WUE through organic fertilization and output through biomass exportation during harvest, net biome production (NBP) was considered in the calculation of an ecosystem-level WUE (WUENBP). Considering WUENBP instead of WUEeco markedly decreased the efficiency of the ecosystem, especially for crops with important carbon exports, as observed for the maize used for silaging and pointed out the profits of organic C input. From an agronomic perspective, maize showed the best WUE, with exported (marketable) carbon per unit of water used exceeding that of other crops. Thus, the environmental and agronomical WUE approaches should be considered together in the context of global climate change and sustainable development.

Synaptic plasticity and neuronal refractory time cause scaling behaviour of neuronal avalanches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michiels van Kessenich, L.; de Arcangelis, L.; Herrmann, H. J.

2016-08-01

Neuronal avalanches measured in vitro and in vivo in different cortical networks consistently exhibit power law behaviour for the size and duration distributions with exponents typical for a mean field self-organized branching process. These exponents are also recovered in neuronal network simulations implementing various neuronal dynamics on different network topologies. They can therefore be considered a very robust feature of spontaneous neuronal activity. Interestingly, this scaling behaviour is also observed on regular lattices in finite dimensions, which raises the question about the origin of the mean field behavior observed experimentally. In this study we provide an answer to this open question by investigating the effect of activity dependent plasticity in combination with the neuronal refractory time in a neuronal network. Results show that the refractory time hinders backward avalanches forcing a directed propagation. Hebbian plastic adaptation plays the role of sculpting these directed avalanche patterns into the topology of the network slowly changing it into a branched structure where loops are marginal.

Synaptic plasticity and neuronal refractory time cause scaling behaviour of neuronal avalanches.

PubMed

Michiels van Kessenich, L; de Arcangelis, L; Herrmann, H J

2016-08-18

Neuronal avalanches measured in vitro and in vivo in different cortical networks consistently exhibit power law behaviour for the size and duration distributions with exponents typical for a mean field self-organized branching process. These exponents are also recovered in neuronal network simulations implementing various neuronal dynamics on different network topologies. They can therefore be considered a very robust feature of spontaneous neuronal activity. Interestingly, this scaling behaviour is also observed on regular lattices in finite dimensions, which raises the question about the origin of the mean field behavior observed experimentally. In this study we provide an answer to this open question by investigating the effect of activity dependent plasticity in combination with the neuronal refractory time in a neuronal network. Results show that the refractory time hinders backward avalanches forcing a directed propagation. Hebbian plastic adaptation plays the role of sculpting these directed avalanche patterns into the topology of the network slowly changing it into a branched structure where loops are marginal.

A long time span relativistic precession model of the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Kai; Soffel, Michael H.; Tao, Jin-He; Han, Wen-Biao; Tang, Zheng-Hong

2015-04-01

A numerical solution to the Earth's precession in a relativistic framework for a long time span is presented here. We obtain the motion of the solar system in the Barycentric Celestial Reference System by numerical integration with a symplectic integrator. Special Newtonian corrections accounting for tidal dissipation are included in the force model. The part representing Earth's rotation is calculated in the Geocentric Celestial Reference System by integrating the post-Newtonian equations of motion published by Klioner et al. All the main relativistic effects are included following Klioner et al. In particular, we consider several relativistic reference systems with corresponding time scales, scaled constants and parameters. Approximate expressions for Earth's precession in the interval ±1 Myr around J2000.0 are provided. In the interval ±2000 years around J2000.0, the difference compared to the P03 precession theory is only several arcseconds and the results are consistent with other long-term precession theories. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Anomalous time delays and quantum weak measurements in optical micro-resonators

PubMed Central

Asano, M.; Bliokh, K. Y.; Bliokh, Y. P.; Kofman, A. G.; Ikuta, R.; Yamamoto, T.; Kivshar, Y. S.; Yang, L.; Imoto, N.; Özdemir, Ş.K.; Nori, F.

2016-01-01

Quantum weak measurements, wavepacket shifts and optical vortices are universal wave phenomena, which originate from fine interference of multiple plane waves. These effects have attracted considerable attention in both classical and quantum wave systems. Here we report on a phenomenon that brings together all the above topics in a simple one-dimensional scalar wave system. We consider inelastic scattering of Gaussian wave packets with parameters close to a zero of the complex scattering coefficient. We demonstrate that the scattered wave packets experience anomalously large time and frequency shifts in such near-zero scattering. These shifts reveal close analogies with the Goos–Hänchen beam shifts and quantum weak measurements of the momentum in a vortex wavefunction. We verify our general theory by an optical experiment using the near-zero transmission (near-critical coupling) of Gaussian pulses propagating through a nano-fibre with a side-coupled toroidal micro-resonator. Measurements demonstrate the amplification of the time delays from the typical inverse-resonator-linewidth scale to the pulse-duration scale. PMID:27841269

Effect of social group dynamics on contagion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zhenyuan; Calderón, J. P.; Xu, Chen; Zhao, Guannan; Fenn, Dan; Sornette, Didier; Crane, Riley; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

2010-05-01

Despite the many works on contagion phenomena in both well-mixed systems and heterogeneous networks, there is still a lack of understanding of the intermediate regime where social group structures evolve on a similar time scale to individual-level transmission. We address this question by considering the process of transmission through a model population comprising social groups which follow simple dynamical rules for growth and breakup. Despite the simplicity of our model, the profiles produced bear a striking resemblance to a wide variety of real-world examples—in particular, empirical data that we have obtained for social (i.e., YouTube), financial (i.e., currency markets), and biological (i.e., colds in schools) systems. The observation of multiple resurgent peaks and abnormal decay times is qualitatively reproduced within the model simply by varying the time scales for group coalescence and fragmentation. We provide an approximate analytic treatment of the system and highlight a novel transition which arises as a result of the social group dynamics.

Kinetic Modeling of Slow Energy Release in Non-Ideal Carbon Rich Explosives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vitello, P; Fried, L; Glaesemann, K

2006-06-20

We present here the first self-consistent kinetic based model for long time-scale energy release in detonation waves in the non-ideal explosive LX-17. Non-ideal, insensitive carbon rich explosives, such as those based on TATB, are believed to have significant late-time slow release in energy. One proposed source of this energy is diffusion-limited growth of carbon clusters. In this paper we consider the late-time energy release problem in detonation waves using the thermochemical code CHEETAH linked to a multidimensional ALE hydrodynamics model. The linked CHEETAH-ALE model dimensional treats slowly reacting chemical species using kinetic rate laws, with chemical equilibrium assumed for speciesmore » coupled via fast time-scale reactions. In the model presented here we include separate rate equations for the transformation of the un-reacted explosive to product gases and for the growth of a small particulate form of condensed graphite to a large particulate form. The small particulate graphite is assumed to be in chemical equilibrium with the gaseous species allowing for coupling between the instantaneous thermodynamic state and the production of graphite clusters. For the explosive burn rate a pressure dependent rate law was used. Low pressure freezing of the gas species mass fractions was also included to account for regions where the kinetic coupling rates become longer than the hydrodynamic time-scales. The model rate parameters were calibrated using cylinder and rate-stick experimental data. Excellent long time agreement and size effect results were achieved.« less

The scientific data acquisition system of the GAMMA-400 space project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobkov, S. G.; Serdin, O. V.; Gorbunov, M. S.; Arkhangelskiy, A. I.; Topchiev, N. P.

2016-02-01

The description of scientific data acquisition system (SDAS) designed by SRISA for the GAMMA-400 space project is presented. We consider the problem of different level electronics unification: the set of reliable fault-tolerant integrated circuits fabricated on Silicon-on-Insulator 0.25 mkm CMOS technology and the high-speed interfaces and reliable modules used in the space instruments. The characteristics of reliable fault-tolerant very large scale integration (VLSI) technology designed by SRISA for the developing of computation systems for space applications are considered. The scalable net structure of SDAS based on Serial RapidIO interface including real-time operating system BAGET is described too.

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Time-series for GCM Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

The ROBUST nature (biases are not as important as previous GCM-evaluations suggest) of the AIRS-observations-generated ARC-maps and ATs as well as their interrelations suggest that they could be a useful tool to select CGCMs which may be considered the reliable, i.e., to be trusted even for longer-term climate drift/change predictions (even on the regional scale). Get monthly gridded CGCM time-series of atmospheric variables coinciding with the timeframe of the AIRS analyses for at least 5-6 years and do the actual evaluations of ARC-maps and ATs for the coinciding time periods.

SPONTANEOUS FORMATION OF SURFACE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE FROM LARGE-SCALE DYNAMO IN STRONGLY STRATIFIED CONVECTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masada, Youhei; Sano, Takayoshi, E-mail: ymasada@auecc.aichi-edu.ac.jp, E-mail: sano@ile.osaka-u.ac.jp

We report the first successful simulation of spontaneous formation of surface magnetic structures from a large-scale dynamo by strongly stratified thermal convection in Cartesian geometry. The large-scale dynamo observed in our strongly stratified model has physical properties similar to those in earlier weakly stratified convective dynamo simulations, indicating that the α {sup 2}-type mechanism is responsible for the dynamo. In addition to the large-scale dynamo, we find that large-scale structures of the vertical magnetic field are spontaneously formed in the convection zone (CZ) surface only in cases with a strongly stratified atmosphere. The organization of the vertical magnetic field proceedsmore » in the upper CZ within tens of convective turnover time and band-like bipolar structures recurrently appear in the dynamo-saturated stage. We consider several candidates to be possibly be the origin of the surface magnetic structure formation, and then suggest the existence of an as-yet-unknown mechanism for the self-organization of the large-scale magnetic structure, which should be inherent in the strongly stratified convective atmosphere.« less

Isotope and mixture effects on neoclassical transport in the pedestal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pusztai, Istvan; Buller, Stefan; Omotani, John T.; Newton, Sarah L.

2017-10-01

The isotope mass scaling of the energy confinement time in tokamak plasmas differs from gyro-Bohm estimates, with implications for the extrapolation from current experiments to D-T reactors. Differences in mass scaling in L-mode and various H-mode regimes suggest that the isotope effect may originate from the pedestal. In the pedestal, sharp gradients render local diffusive estimates invalid, and global effects due to orbit-width scale profile variations have to be taken into account. We calculate neoclassical cross-field fluxes from a radially global drift-kinetic equation using the PERFECT code, to study isotope composition effects in density pedestals. The relative reduction to the peak heat flux due to global effects as a function of the density scale length is found to saturate at an isotope-dependent value that is larger for heavier ions. We also consider D-T and H-D mixtures with a focus on isotope separation. The ability to reproduce the mixture results via single-species simulations with artificial ``DT'' and ``HD'' species has been considered. These computationally convenient single ion simulations give a good estimate of the total ion heat flux in corresponding mixtures. Funding received from the International Career Grant of Vetenskapsradet (VR) (330-2014-6313) with Marie Sklodowska Curie Actions, Cofund, Project INCA 600398, and Framework Grant for Strategic Energy Research of VR (2014-5392).

Leidenfrost drops on a heated liquid pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maquet, L.; Sobac, B.; Darbois-Texier, B.; Duchesne, A.; Brandenbourger, M.; Rednikov, A.; Colinet, P.; Dorbolo, S.

2016-09-01

We show that a volatile liquid drop placed at the surface of a nonvolatile liquid pool warmer than the boiling point of the drop can be held in a Leidenfrost state even for vanishingly small superheats. Such an observation points to the importance of the substrate roughness, negligible in the case considered here, in determining the threshold Leidenfrost temperature. A theoretical model based on the one proposed by Sobac et al. [Phys. Rev. E 90, 053011 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevE.90.053011] is developed in order to rationalize the experimental data. The shapes of the drop and of the liquid substrate are analyzed. The model notably provides scalings for the vapor film thickness profile. For small drops, these scalings appear to be identical to the case of a Leidenfrost drop on a solid substrate. For large drops, in contrast, they are different, and no evidence of chimney formation has been observed either experimentally or theoretically in the range of drop sizes considered in this study. Concerning the evaporation dynamics, the radius is shown to decrease linearly with time whatever the drop size, which differs from the case of a Leidenfrost drop on a solid substrate. For high superheats, the characteristic lifetime of the drops versus the superheat follows a scaling law that is derived from the model, but, at low superheats, it deviates from this scaling by rather saturating.

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Communication: translational Brownian motion for particles of arbitrary shape.

PubMed

Cichocki, Bogdan; Ekiel-Jeżewska, Maria L; Wajnryb, Eligiusz

2012-02-21

A single Brownian particle of arbitrary shape is considered. The time-dependent translational mean square displacement W(t) of a reference point at this particle is evaluated from the Smoluchowski equation. It is shown that at times larger than the characteristic time scale of the rotational Brownian relaxation, the slope of W(t) becomes independent of the choice of a reference point. Moreover, it is proved that in the long-time limit, the slope of W(t) is determined uniquely by the trace of the translational-translational mobility matrix μ(tt) evaluated with respect to the hydrodynamic center of mobility. The result is applicable to dynamic light scattering measurements, which indeed are performed in the long-time limit. © 2012 American Institute of Physics

Tertiary ozonation of industrial wastewater for the removal of estrogenic compounds (NP and BPA): a full-scale case study.

PubMed

Bertanza, G; Papa, M; Pedrazzani, R; Repice, C; Dal Grande, M

2013-01-01

Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents are considered to be a major source for the release in the aquatic environment of endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs). Ozone has proved to be a suitable solution for polishing secondary domestic effluents. In this work, the performance of a full-scale ozonation plant was investigated in order to assess the removal efficiency of four target EDCs: nonylphenol, nonylphenol monoethoxylate, nonylphenol diethoxylate and bisphenol A. The studied system was the tertiary treatment stage of a municipal WWTP which receives an important industrial (textile) load. Chemical analyses showed that the considered substances occurred with a significant variability, typical of real wastewaters; based on this, ozonation performance was carefully evaluated and it appeared to be negatively affected by flow-rate increase (during rainy days, with consequent contact time reduction). Moreover, EDCs' measured removal efficiency was lower than what could be predicted based on literature data, because of the relatively high residual content of biorefractory compounds still present after biological treatment.

Laboratory measurements of shock propagation through spherical cavities in an optically accessible polymer.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chojnicki, Kirsten; Cooper, Marcia A.; Guo, Shuyue

Pore-scale aperture effects on flow in pore networks was studied in the laboratory to provide a parameterization for use in transport models. Four cases were considered: regular and irregular pillar/pore alignment with and without an aperture. The velocity field of each case was measured and simulated, providing quantitatively comparable results. Two aperture effect parameterizations were considered: permeability and transmission. Permeability values varied by an order of magnitude between the cases with and without apertures. However, transmission did not correlate with permeability. Despite having much greater permeability the regular aperture case permitted less transmission than the regular case. Moreover, both irregularmore » cases had greater transmission than the regular cases, a difference not supported by the permeabilities. Overall, these findings suggest that pore-scale aperture effects on flow though a pore-network may not be adequately captured by properties such as permeability for applications that are interested in determining particle transport volume and timing.« less

Developing Ultra-small Scale Mechanical Testing Methods and Microstructural Investigation Procedures for Irradiated Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hosemann, Peter; Kaoumi, Djamel

Nuclear materials are an essential aspect of nuclear engineering. While great effort is spent on designing more advanced reactors or enhancing a reactor’s safety, materials have been the bottleneck of most new developments. The designs of new reactor concepts are driven by neutronic and thermodynamic aspects, leading to unusual coolants (liquid metal, liquid salt, gases), higher temperatures, and higher radiation doses than conventional light water reactors have. However, any (nuclear) engineering design must consider the materials used in the anticipated application in order to ever be realized. Designs which may look easy, simple and efficient considering thermodynamics or neutronic aspectsmore » can show their true difficulty in the materials area, which then prevents them from being deployed. In turn, the materials available are influencing the neutronic and thermodynamic designs and therefore must be considered from the beginning, requiring close collaborations between different aspects of nuclear engineering. If a particular design requires new materials, the licensing of the reactor must be considered, but licensing can be a costly and time consuming process that results in long lead times to realize true materials innovation.« less

The record of iceberg roll generated waves from sediments and seismics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosser, N. J.; Szczucinski, W.; Strzelecki, M.; Long, A. J.; Norman, E. C.; Dunning, S.; Drewniak, M.

2013-12-01

Iceberg-roll tsunamis in coastal settings have been observed to generate significant local waves, that hold potential to be recorded in coastal depositional records. Capturing the past magnitude and frequency of such events remains challenging, hindered by a lack of a good understanding of the nature, recurrence and scale of iceberg rolls, and more specifically those rolls that generate waves. Here we consider the sedimentary evidence for iceberg rolls in West Central Greenland, based upon survey of depositional environments in a range of open and confined coastal environments. We examine both an open 80 km fjord setting, and a series of confined ice-marginal beaches. We combine a detailed interpretation of sediment deposits from shore-normal transects with wider-scale high-resolution terrestrial laser scanning of sediments. Our sites - Vaigat, which separates Disko Island from the Nussuaq Peninsular, and the northern shore of Icefjord - both have a recent history of tsunamis, triggered variously by large rock avalanches, landslides and iceberg rolls. Icebergs in Vaigat and Icefjord are observed to undergo frequent failure and roll, generating - where circumstances permit - nearshore waves of meter-scale. To obtain a more detailed understanding of the likely recurrence of such iceberg roll waves and to consider their influence upon the preserved sedimentary record, we undertook an intensive 2-month monitoring campaign during sea-ice free conditions in summer 2013 to determine the patterns in the location, magnitude, frequency and timing of iceberg roll waves. Innovatively, using microseismic monitoring combined with time-lapse photography and weather monitoring, we derive a first-order model of the occurrence of iceberg roll waves. We then use this to inform our interpretation of deposits in these two environments, and consider the presence and absence of records of iceberg roll deposits in such settings. The study was funded by Polish National Science Centre grant No. 2011/01/B/ST10/01553.

Planning for Desperate Climate Intervention: can it Make Sense?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, Robert

2014-07-01

The three National Academies of the United States, working together, authored a comprehensive report in 1992 titled: Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. The authors discussed various possible methods of geoengineering to mitigate the adverse climate effects of the slow, steady buildup of greenhouse gasses in the Earth's atmosphere. Subsequently far less expensive, clever designs were developed by inventors such as Bill Gates and his collaborators, and these have been patented. Many of the techniques in this geoengineering proposition were commonly considered as methods of selectively polluting the upper atmosphere to block the solar luminosity, and hence they met with staunch resistance from the international scientific community. At the time, these geoengineering approaches were proposed as a method of countering the slow steady increase of the earth's temperature that was assumed to be a consequence of the increase in concentration of atmospheric molecules that contain carbon, such as CO2 and CH4. Such intentional intervention in a system as complex as the earth's atmosphere was considered by most scientists, including the authors, as reckless. Within this paper, we propose that the less expensive of these geoengineering plans be reconsidered, but that such a system never be deployed or tested at scale unless a genuine climate runaway condition arises in the future. The more economically compelling approaches should be further tested at the `lab bench' level, and in small laboratory-scale tests, and simulations. A comprehensive plan should be developed to manufacture the required materials at scale and to finalize the design of the necessary system, but no such deployment should be entered into at this time. The many risks of an intense, sudden release of greenhouse gasses, mainly methane and carbon dioxide from geologic sources, are reviewed briefly herein. We consider it only prudent to develop an economical and viable geoengineered plan to block part of the solar luminosity on the Earth, given the small but credible risk of a global climate runaway situation in the future.

Scattering and; Delay, Scale, and Sum Migration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehman, S K

How do we see? What is the mechanism? Consider standing in an open field on a clear sunny day. In the field are a yellow dog and a blue ball. From a wave-based remote sensing point of view the sun is a source of radiation. It is a broadband electromagnetic source which, for the purposes of this introduction, only the visible spectrum is considered (approximately 390 to 750 nanometers or 400 to 769 TeraHertz). The source emits an incident field into the known background environment which, for this example, is free space. The incident field propagates until it strikes anmore » object or target, either the yellow dog or the blue ball. The interaction of the incident field with an object results in a scattered field. The scattered field arises from a mis-match between the background refractive index, considered to be unity, and the scattering object refractive index ('yellow' for the case of the dog, and 'blue' for the ball). This is also known as an impedance mis-match. The scattering objects are referred to as secondary sources of radiation, that radiation being the scattered field which propagates until it is measured by the two receivers known as 'eyes'. The eyes focus the measured scattered field to form images which are processed by the 'wetware' of the brain for detection, identification, and localization. When time series representations of the measured scattered field are available, the image forming focusing process can be mathematically modeled by delayed, scaled, and summed migration. This concept of optical propagation, scattering, and focusing have one-to-one equivalents in the acoustic realm. This document is intended to present the basic concepts of scalar scattering and migration used in wide band wave-based remote sensing and imaging. The terms beamforming and (delayed, scaled, and summed) migration are used interchangeably but are to be distinguished from the narrow band (frequency domain) beamforming to determine the direction of arrival of a signal, and seismic migration in which wide band time series are shifted but not to form images per se. Section 3 presents a mostly graphically-based motivation and summary of delay, scale, and sum beamforming. The model for incident field propagation in free space is derived in Section 4 under specific assumptions. General object scattering is derived in Section 5 and simplified under the Born approximation in Section 6. The model of this section serves as the basis in the derivation of time-domain migration. The Foldy-Lax, full point scatterer scattering, method is derived in Section 7. With the previous forward models in hand, delay, scale, and sum beamforming is derived in Section 8. Finally, proof-of-principle experiments are present in Section 9.« less

Extended AIC model based on high order moments and its application in the financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Xuegeng; Shang, Pengjian

2018-07-01

In this paper, an extended method of traditional Akaike Information Criteria(AIC) is proposed to detect the volatility of time series by combining it with higher order moments, such as skewness and kurtosis. Since measures considering higher order moments are powerful in many aspects, the properties of asymmetry and flatness can be observed. Furthermore, in order to reduce the effect of noise and other incoherent features, we combine the extended AIC algorithm with multiscale wavelet analysis, in which the newly extended AIC algorithm is applied to wavelet coefficients at several scales and the time series are reconstructed by wavelet transform. After that, we create AIC planes to derive the relationship among AIC values using variance, skewness and kurtosis respectively. When we test this technique on the financial market, the aim is to analyze the trend and volatility of the closing price of stock indices and classify them. And we also adapt multiscale analysis to measure complexity of time series over a range of scales. Empirical results show that the singularity of time series in stock market can be detected via extended AIC algorithm.

Exact axially symmetric galactic dynamos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriksen, R. N.; Woodfinden, A.; Irwin, J. A.

2018-05-01

We give a selection of exact dynamos in axial symmetry on a galactic scale. These include some steady examples, at least one of which is wholly analytic in terms of simple functions and has been discussed elsewhere. Most solutions are found in terms of special functions, such as associated Lagrange or hypergeometric functions. They may be considered exact in the sense that they are known to any desired accuracy in principle. The new aspect developed here is to present scale-invariant solutions with zero resistivity that are self-similar in time. The time dependence is either a power law or an exponential factor, but since the geometry of the solution is self-similar in time we do not need to fix a time to study it. Several examples are discussed. Our results demonstrate (without the need to invoke any other mechanisms) X-shaped magnetic fields and (axially symmetric) magnetic spiral arms (both of which are well observed and documented) and predict reversing rotation measures in galaxy haloes (now observed in the CHANG-ES sample) as well as the fact that planar magnetic spirals are lifted into the galactic halo.

Spatial search on a two-dimensional lattice with long-range interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osada, Tomo; Sanaka, Kaoru; Munro, William J.; Nemoto, Kae

2018-06-01

Quantum-walk-based algorithms that search a marked location among N locations on a d -dimensional lattice succeeds in time O (√{N }) for d >2 , while this is not found to be possible when d =2 . In this paper, we consider a spatial search algorithm using continuous-time quantum walk on a two-dimensional square lattice with the existence of additional long-range edges. We examined such a search on a probabilistic graph model where an edge connecting non-nearest-neighbor lattice points i and j apart by a distance |i -j | is added by probability pi j=|i-j | -α(α ≥0 ) . Through numerical analysis, we found that the search succeeds in time O (√{N }) when α ≤αc=2.4 ±0.1 . For α >2 , the expectation value of the additional long-range edges on each node scales as a constant when N →∞ , which means that search time of O (√{N }) is achieved on a graph with average degree scaling as a constant.

Multiscale Information Transfer in Functional Corticomuscular Coupling Estimation Following Stroke: A Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaoling; Xie, Ping; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Chen, Yuling; Yang, Fangmei; Zhang, Litai; Li, Xiaoli

2018-01-01

Recently, functional corticomuscular coupling (FCMC) between the cortex and the contralateral muscle has been used to evaluate motor function after stroke. As we know, the motor-control system is a closed-loop system that is regulated by complex self-regulating and interactive mechanisms which operate in multiple spatial and temporal scales. Multiscale analysis can represent the inherent complexity. However, previous studies in FCMC for stroke patients mainly focused on the coupling strength in single-time scale, without considering the changes of the inherently directional and multiscale properties in sensorimotor systems. In this paper, a multiscale-causal model, named multiscale transfer entropy, was used to quantify the functional connection between electroencephalogram over the scalp and electromyogram from the flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS) recorded simultaneously during steady-state grip task in eight stroke patients and eight healthy controls. Our results showed that healthy controls exhibited higher coupling when the scale reached up to about 12, and the FCMC in descending direction was stronger at certain scales (1, 7, 12, and 14) than that in ascending direction. Further analysis showed these multi-time scale characteristics mainly focused on the beta1 band at scale 11 and beta2 band at scale 9, 11, 13, and 15. Compared to controls, the multiscale properties of the FCMC for stroke were changed, the strengths in both directions were reduced, and the gaps between the descending and ascending directions were disappeared over all scales. Further analysis in specific bands showed that the reduced FCMC mainly focused on the alpha2 at higher scale, beta1 and beta2 across almost the entire scales. This study about multi-scale confirms that the FCMC between the brain and muscles is capable of complex and directional characteristics, and these characteristics in functional connection for stroke are destroyed by the structural lesion in the brain that might disrupt coordination, feedback, and information transmission in efferent control and afferent feedback. The study demonstrates for the first time the multiscale and directional characteristics of the FCMC for stroke patients, and provides a preliminary observation for application in clinical assessment following stroke. PMID:29765351

Generation of scale invariant magnetic fields in bouncing universes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sriramkumar, L.; Atmjeet, Kumar; Jain, Rajeev Kumar, E-mail: sriram@physics.iitm.ac.in, E-mail: katmjeet@physics.du.ac.in, E-mail: jain@cp3.dias.sdu.dk

2015-09-01

We consider the generation of primordial magnetic fields in a class of bouncing models when the electromagnetic action is coupled non-minimally to a scalar field that, say, drives the background evolution. For scale factors that have the power law form at very early times and non-minimal couplings which are simple powers of the scale factor, one can easily show that scale invariant spectra for the magnetic field can arise before the bounce for certain values of the indices involved. It will be interesting to examine if these power spectra retain their shape after the bounce. However, analytical solutions for themore » Fourier modes of the electromagnetic vector potential across the bounce are difficult to obtain. In this work, with the help of a new time variable that we introduce, which we refer to as the e-N-fold, we investigate these scenarios numerically. Imposing the initial conditions on the modes in the contracting phase, we numerically evolve the modes across the bounce and evaluate the spectra of the electric and magnetic fields at a suitable time after the bounce. As one could have intuitively expected, though the complete spectra depend on the details of the bounce, we find that, under the original conditions, scale invariant spectra of the magnetic fields do arise for wavenumbers much smaller than the scale associated with the bounce. We also show that magnetic fields which correspond to observed strengths today can be generated for specific values of the parameters. But, we find that, at the bounce, the backreaction due to the electromagnetic modes that have been generated can be significantly large calling into question the viability of the model. We briefly discuss the implications of our results.« less

The 1997–1998 El Niño as an unforgettable phenomenon in northern Peru: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Bayer, Angela M.; Danysh, Heather E.; Garvich, Mijail; Gonzálvez, Guillermo; Checkley, William; Alvarez, María; Gilman, Robert H.

2014-01-01

During the 1997–98 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tumbes, Peru received 16 times the annual average rainfall. We explored how Tumbes residents perceived the ENSO’s impact on basic necessities, transport, healthcare, jobs and migration. Forty-five individuals from five rural communities, including those that were isolated and not isolated from the rest of Tumbes during this ENSO, participated in five focus groups and six individuals constructed nutrition diaries. When asked about events in the past twenty years, participants considered the El Niño as a major negative event. Negative effects that were ameliorated quickly were decreased access to transport and healthcare and increased infectious diseases. Residents needed more time to rebuild housing, recover agriculture, livestock and income stability, and return to eating sufficient animal protein. Although large-scale assistance minimized the ENSO’s effects, residents needed more timely support. Residents’ perspectives on their risks to flooding should be considered to generate effective assistance. PMID:24601921

Early time evolution of a chemically produced electron depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scales, W. A.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Ganguli, G.

1995-01-01

The early time evolution of an ionospheric electron depletion produced by a radially expanding electron attachment chemical release is studied with a two-dimensional simulation model. The model includes electron attachment chemistry, incorporates fluid electrons, particle ions and neutrals, and considers the evolution in a plane perpendicular to the geomagnetic field for a low beta plasma. Timescales considered are of the order of or less than the cyclotron period of the negative ions that result as a by-product of the electron attacment reaction. This corresponds to time periods of tenths of seconds during recent experiemts. Simulation results show that a highly sheared azimuthal electron flow velocity develops in the radially expanding depletion boundary. This sheared electron flow velocity and the steep density gradients in the boundary give rise to small-scale irregulatities in the form of electron density cavities and spikes. The nonlinear evolution of these irregularities results in trapping and ultimately turbulent heating of the negative ions.

The extent to which path-integral models account for evanescent (tunneling) and complex (near-field) waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranfagni, Anedio; Mugnai, Daniela; Cacciari, Ilaria

2018-05-01

The usefulness of a stochastic approach in determining time scales in tunneling processes (mainly, but not only, in the microwave range) is reconsidered and compared with a different approach to these kinds of processes, based on Feynman's transition elements. This latter method is found to be particularly suitable for interpreting situations in the near field, as results from some experimental cases considered here.

Physics of fashion fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donangelo, R.; Hansen, A.; Sneppen, K.; Souza, S. R.

2000-12-01

We consider a market where many agents trade different types of products with each other. We model development of collective modes in this market, and quantify these by fluctuations that scale with time with a Hurst exponent of about 0.7. We demonstrate that individual products in the model occasionally become globally accepted means of exchange, and simultaneously become very actively traded. Thus collective features similar to money spontaneously emerge, without any a priori reason.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

PubMed

Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2012-04-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites.

PubMed

Novello, Valdir F; Vuille, Mathias; Cruz, Francisco W; Stríkis, Nicolás M; de Paula, Marcos Saito; Edwards, R Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Karmann, Ivo; Jaqueto, Plínio F; Trindade, Ricardo I F; Hartmann, Gelvam A; Moquet, Jean S

2016-04-21

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is generally considered to be highly sensitive to Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature variations on multi-centennial timescales. The direct influence of solar forcing on moisture convergence in global monsoon systems on the other hand, while well explored in modeling studies, has hitherto not been documented in proxy data from the SAMS region. Hence little is known about the sensitivity of the SAMS to solar forcing over the past millennium and how it might compete or constructively interfere with NH temperature variations that occurred primarily in response to volcanic forcing. Here we present a new annually-resolved oxygen isotope record from a 1500-year long stalagmite recording past changes in precipitation in the hitherto unsampled core region of the SAMS. This record details how solar variability consistently modulated the strength of the SAMS on centennial time scales during the past 1500 years. Solar forcing, besides the previously recognized influence from NH temperature changes and associated Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts, appears as a major driver affecting SAMS intensity at centennial time scales.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

PubMed Central

Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2013-01-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g., phenology), space (e.g., range) and self (e.g., physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. PMID:22257223

Kinetic energy budget during strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1980-01-01

Kinetic energy budgets are computed during a cold air outbreak in association with strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States. The period is characterized by large generation of kinetic energy due to cross-contour flow. Horizontal export and dissipation of energy to subgrid scales of motion constitute the important energy sinks. Rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals during a 36 h period are used in the analysis and reveal that energy fluctuations on a time scale of less than 12 h are generally small even though the overall energy balance does change considerably during the period in conjunction with an upper level trough which moves through the region. An error analysis of the energy budget terms suggests that this major change in the budget is not due to random errors in the input data but is caused by the changing synoptic situation. The study illustrates the need to consider the time and space scales of associated weather phenomena in interpreting energy budgets obtained through use of higher frequency data.

Dynamics of ejecta from the binary asteroid Didymos, the target of the AIDA mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Patrick; Yu, Yang; Schwartz, Stephen; Naidu, Shantanu; Benner, Lance

2016-04-01

The AIDA space mission, a collaborative effort between ESA and NASA, aims to characterize the near-Earth asteroid binary (65803) Didymos and to perform a kinetic impactor demonstration on the small moon of the binary system. Our study presents a multi-scale dynamical model of the ejecta cloud produced by a hypervelocity impact, which enables us to compute the ejecta properties at different spatial and time scales. This model is applied to the impact into the small moon of Didymos on October 2022 as considered by the AIDA mission. We model the process by including as much practical information as possible, e.g., the gravitational environment influenced by the non-spherical shapes of the bodies (based on the observed shape of the primary), the solar tides, and the solar radiation pressure. Our simulations show where and for how long the ejecta cloud evolves with time for the considered ejecta initial conditions. This information is used to assess the potential hazard to the ESA Asteroid Impact Mission (AIM) observing spacecraft and to determine the safest positions. This study is performed with support of the European Space Agency and in the framework of the NEOShield-2 project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 640351.

Global Patterns of Legacy Nitrate Storage in the Vadose Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Wang, L.; Stuart, M.; Lewis, M.; Ward, R.; Binley, A. M.

2017-12-01

Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets have been developed to quantify the impact of man's influence on the nitrogen cycle. However, these budgets often do not consider legacy effects such as accumulation of nitrate in the deep vadose zone. In this presentation we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future nitrogen budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of depth to groundwater and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify for the first time the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone, estimated as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using previous national and basin scale estimates of N storage and observed groundwater nitrate data for North America and Europe. Nitrate accumulation per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Central and Eastern Europe where thick vadose zones are present and there is an extensive history of agriculture. In these areas the long solute travel time in the vadose zone means that the anticipated impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality may be substantially delayed. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate and their continued use will lead to significant errors.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of niche construction for its agent.

PubMed

Kylafis, Grigoris; Loreau, Michel

2008-10-01

Niche construction can generate ecological and evolutionary feedbacks that have been underinvestigated so far. We present an eco-evolutionary model that incorporates the process of niche construction to reveal its effects on the ecology and evolution of the niche-constructing agent. We consider a simple plant-soil nutrient ecosystem in which plants have the ability to increase the input of inorganic nutrient as an example of positive niche construction. On an ecological time scale, the model shows that niche construction allows the persistence of plants under infertile soil conditions that would otherwise lead to their extinction. This expansion of plants' niche, however, requires a high enough rate of niche construction and a high enough initial plant biomass to fuel the positive ecological feedback between plants and their soil environment. On an evolutionary time scale, we consider that the rates of niche construction and nutrient uptake coevolve in plants while a trade-off constrains their values. Different evolutionary outcomes are possible depending on the shape of the trade-off. We show that niche construction results in an evolutionary feedback between plants and their soil environment such that plants partially regulate soil nutrient content. The direct benefit accruing to plants, however, plays a crucial role in the evolutionary advantage of niche construction.

Lagtime of river systems to changes in pollutant load on the catchment: a regional scale assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Żurek, Anna J.; Różański, Kazimierz; Witczak, Stanisław

2017-04-01

Transport of conservative contaminants through groundwater systems (e.g. nitrate under oxidized conditions) is significantly delayed when compared to movement of those contaminants through surface water compartments. Characteristic time scales of groundwater movement may easily reach tens or hundreds of years. This results in large lagtimes of contaminant transport in the subsurface. These lagtimes are particularly important when response of river basins to measures aimed at recovery of good groundwater status is considered. Incorporating lagtime principles into water quality regulations may result in more realistic expectations when such policies are designed and implemented. The lagtime of contaminant transport in the subsurface with respect to transport through surface and near-surface (drainage) runoff can be separated into two components: (i) the delay associated with travel time of water (and contaminants) through the unsaturated zone, and (ii) the delay linked to time scales of groundwater flow, from the recharge area down to the discharge zone (river). Thus, the travel time of water through unsaturated and saturated zones can be considered a quantitative measure of the lagtime. Lagtime in the unsaturated zone on the territory of Poland was assessed on the basis of the existing Groundwater Vulnerability Map of Poland (GVMP) (Witczak et al., 2007; 2011). The adopted approach relies on MRT (Mean Residence Time) of water in the strata separating the saturated aquifer from the land surface, as an integrated vulnerability index. In the framework of GVMP, the MRT is calculated as turnover time of the infiltrating water in the vadose zone. The piston-flow type of water movement through the unsaturated zone is considered. The lagtime in the saturated zone (Tsat) can be approximated by travel time of water, flowing along the local hydraulic gradient to the closest river. The lagtime of river systems with respect to changes in pollutant load on the catchment is a sum of the travel time of water through the unsaturated zone (MRT) and the travel time associated with movement of water in the saturated zone (Tsat). Preliminary assessments of total lagtime (MRT + Tsat) suggest that for the territory of Poland the mean value of the total lagtime of conservative contaminant is in the order of 25 years, with the range of 10 to 60 years corresponding to one standard deviation. References: Witczak S. (Ed.) (2011). Groundwater Vulnerability Map of Poland. Ministerstwo Środowiska. Warszawa. Witczak S., Duda R., Zurek A. (2007). The Polish concept of groundwater vulnerability mapping. [In:] Witkowski A.J., Kowalczyk A., Vrba J., Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping, Selected Papers on Hydrogeology 11, 45-59. Acknowledgements. The work was carried out as part of the project BONUS Soils2Sea and the statutory funds of the AGH University of Science and Technology (projects No.11.11.140.797 and 11.11.220.01).

Hybrid discrete-continuum modeling for transport, biofilm development and solid restructuring including electrostatic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prechtel, Alexander; Ray, Nadja; Rupp, Andreas

2017-04-01

We want to present an approach for the mathematical, mechanistic modeling and numerical treatment of processes leading to the formation, stability, and turnover of soil micro-aggregates. This aims at deterministic aggregation models including detailed mechanistic pore-scale descriptions to account for the interplay of geochemistry and microbiology, and the link to soil functions as, e.g., the porosity. We therefore consider processes at the pore scale and the mesoscale (laboratory scale). At the pore scale transport by diffusion, advection, and drift emerging from electric forces can be taken into account, in addition to homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions of species. In the context of soil micro-aggregates the growth of biofilms or other glueing substances as EPS (extracellular polymeric substances) is important and affects the structure of the pore space in space and time. This model is upscaled mathematically in the framework of (periodic) homogenization to transfer it to the mesoscale resulting in effective coefficients/parameters there. This micro-macro model thus couples macroscopic equations that describe the transport and fluid flow at the scale of the porous medium (mesoscale) with averaged time- and space-dependent coefficient functions. These functions may be explicitly computed by means of auxiliary cell problems (microscale). Finally, the pore space in which the cell problems are defined is time and space dependent and its geometry inherits information from the transport equation's solutions. The microscale problems rely on versatile combinations of cellular automata and discontiuous Galerkin methods while on the mesoscale mixed finite elements are used. The numerical simulations allow to study the interplay between these processes.

Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Adler, David; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

A randomised controlled trial to explore attitudes to routine scale and polish and compare manual versus ultrasonic scaling in the general dental service in Scotland [ISRCTN99609795

PubMed Central

Bonner, Brian C; Young, Linda; Smith, Patricia A; McCombes, Wendy; Clarkson, Jan E

2005-01-01

Background To investigate, within general dental practice, patients' and vocational dental practitioners' (VDP) attitudes towards the benefits and costs of a simple scale and polish and to compare the experience of using manual versus ultrasonic instruments to scale teeth. Methods 28 VDPs and 420 patients participated. Patients were randomly allocated to either group. Patients' and VDPs' attitudes towards, and experience of, the scale and polish were elicited by means of self-administered questionnaires. Results The majority of patients (99%) believed a scale and polish was beneficial. VDPs considered ultrasonic treatment to be appropriate on significantly more occasions than they did for manual scale and polish (P < 0.001). Patient discomfort: with ultrasonic scaling 69.2% felt 'a little uncomfortable' or worse compared with 60% of those undergoing manual treatment (P = 0.072). VDPs considered treatment charges were appropriate for 77% of patients. Conclusion Routine scaling and polishing is considered beneficial by both patients and vocational trainees. The majority of patients, regardless of treatment method, experience some degree of discomfort when undergoing a scale and polish. VDPs showed a preference for the ultrasonic treatment method. PMID:15975140

Simulation of long-term influence from technical systems on permafrost with various short-scale and hourly operation modes in Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaganova, N. A.

2017-12-01

Technogenic and climatic influences have a significant impact on the degradation of permafrost. Long-term forecasts of such changes during long-time periods have to be taken into account in the oil and gas and construction industries in view to development the Arctic and Subarctic regions. There are considered constantly operating technical systems (for example, oil and gas wells) that affect changes in permafrost, as well as the technical systems that have a short-term impact on permafrost (for example, flare systems for emergency flaring of associated gas). The second type of technical systems is rather complex for simulation, since it is required to reserve both short and long-scales in computations with variable time steps describing the complex technological processes. The main attention is paid to the simulation of long-term influence on the permafrost from the second type of the technical systems.

The Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation under rapid forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moroz, Irene M.

1997-06-01

We consider the initial value problem for the forced Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation (KP) when the forcing is assumed to be fast compared to the evolution of the unforced equation. This suggests the introduction of two time scales. Solutions to the forced KP are sought by expanding the dependent variable in powers of a small parameter, which is inversely related to the forcing time scale. The unforced system describes weakly nonlinear, weakly dispersive, weakly two-dimensional wave propagation and is studied in two forms, depending upon whether gravity dominates surface tension or vice versa. We focus on the effect that the forcing has on the one-lump solution to the KPI equation (where surface tension dominates) and on the one- and two-line soliton solutions to the KPII equation (when gravity dominates). Solutions to second order in the expansion are computed analytically for some specific choices of the forcing function, which are related to the choice of initial data.

Optimal switching between geocentric and egocentric strategies in navigation

PubMed Central

Mahadevan, L.

2016-01-01

Animals use a combination of egocentric navigation driven by the internal integration of environmental cues, interspersed with geocentric course correction and reorientation. These processes are accompanied by uncertainty in sensory acquisition of information, planning and execution. Inspired by observations of dung beetle navigational strategies that show switching between geocentric and egocentric strategies, we consider the question of optimal reorientation rates for the navigation of an agent moving along a preferred direction in the presence of multiple sources of noise. We address this using a model that takes the form of a correlated random walk at short time scales that is punctuated by reorientation events leading to a biased random walks at long time scales. This allows us to identify optimal alternation schemes and characterize their robustness in the context of noisy sensory acquisition as well as performance errors linked with variations in environmental conditions and agent–environment interactions. PMID:27493769

Fractional Brownian motion and the critical dynamics of zipping polymers.

PubMed

Walter, J-C; Ferrantini, A; Carlon, E; Vanderzande, C

2012-03-01

We consider two complementary polymer strands of length L attached by a common-end monomer. The two strands bind through complementary monomers and at low temperatures form a double-stranded conformation (zipping), while at high temperature they dissociate (unzipping). This is a simple model of DNA (or RNA) hairpin formation. Here we investigate the dynamics of the strands at the equilibrium critical temperature T=T(c) using Monte Carlo Rouse dynamics. We find that the dynamics is anomalous, with a characteristic time scaling as τ∼L(2.26(2)), exceeding the Rouse time ∼L(2.18). We investigate the probability distribution function, velocity autocorrelation function, survival probability, and boundary behavior of the underlying stochastic process. These quantities scale as expected from a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent H=0.44(1). We discuss similarities to and differences from unbiased polymer translocation.

Discovery of powerful gamma-ray flares from the Crab Nebula.

PubMed

Tavani, M; Bulgarelli, A; Vittorini, V; Pellizzoni, A; Striani, E; Caraveo, P; Weisskopf, M C; Tennant, A; Pucella, G; Trois, A; Costa, E; Evangelista, Y; Pittori, C; Verrecchia, F; Del Monte, E; Campana, R; Pilia, M; De Luca, A; Donnarumma, I; Horns, D; Ferrigno, C; Heinke, C O; Trifoglio, M; Gianotti, F; Vercellone, S; Argan, A; Barbiellini, G; Cattaneo, P W; Chen, A W; Contessi, T; D'Ammando, F; DePris, G; Di Cocco, G; Di Persio, G; Feroci, M; Ferrari, A; Galli, M; Giuliani, A; Giusti, M; Labanti, C; Lapshov, I; Lazzarotto, F; Lipari, P; Longo, F; Fuschino, F; Marisaldi, M; Mereghetti, S; Morelli, E; Moretti, E; Morselli, A; Pacciani, L; Perotti, F; Piano, G; Picozza, P; Prest, M; Rapisarda, M; Rappoldi, A; Rubini, A; Sabatini, S; Soffitta, P; Vallazza, E; Zambra, A; Zanello, D; Lucarelli, F; Santolamazza, P; Giommi, P; Salotti, L; Bignami, G F

2011-02-11

The well-known Crab Nebula is at the center of the SN1054 supernova remnant. It consists of a rotationally powered pulsar interacting with a surrounding nebula through a relativistic particle wind. The emissions originating from the pulsar and nebula have been considered to be essentially stable. Here, we report the detection of strong gamma-ray (100 mega-electron volts to 10 giga-electron volts) flares observed by the AGILE satellite in September 2010 and October 2007. In both cases, the total gamma-ray flux increased by a factor of three compared with the non-flaring flux. The flare luminosity and short time scale favor an origin near the pulsar, and we discuss Chandra Observatory x-ray and Hubble Space Telescope optical follow-up observations of the nebula. Our observations challenge standard models of nebular emission and require power-law acceleration by shock-driven plasma wave turbulence within an approximately 1-day time scale.

Multi-scale clustering of functional data with application to hydraulic gradients in wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenwood, Mark C.; Sojda, Richard S.; Sharp, Julia L.; Peck, Rory G.; Rosenberry, Donald O.

2011-01-01

A new set of methods are developed to perform cluster analysis of functions, motivated by a data set consisting of hydraulic gradients at several locations distributed across a wetland complex. The methods build on previous work on clustering of functions, such as Tarpey and Kinateder (2003) and Hitchcock et al. (2007), but explore functions generated from an additive model decomposition (Wood, 2006) of the original time se- ries. Our decomposition targets two aspects of the series, using an adaptive smoother for the trend and circular spline for the diurnal variation in the series. Different measures for comparing locations are discussed, including a method for efficiently clustering time series that are of different lengths using a functional data approach. The complicated nature of these wetlands are highlighted by the shifting group memberships depending on which scale of variation and year of the study are considered.

The computational challenges of Earth-system science.

PubMed

O'Neill, Alan; Steenman-Clark, Lois

2002-06-15

The Earth system--comprising atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere and biosphere--is an immensely complex system, involving processes and interactions on a wide range of space- and time-scales. To understand and predict the evolution of the Earth system is one of the greatest challenges of modern science, with success likely to bring enormous societal benefits. High-performance computing, along with the wealth of new observational data, is revolutionizing our ability to simulate the Earth system with computer models that link the different components of the system together. There are, however, considerable scientific and technical challenges to be overcome. This paper will consider four of them: complexity, spatial resolution, inherent uncertainty and time-scales. Meeting these challenges requires a significant increase in the power of high-performance computers. The benefits of being able to make reliable predictions about the evolution of the Earth system should, on their own, amply repay this investment.

Research on regional numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreitzberg, C. W.

1976-01-01

Extension of the predictive power of dynamic weather forecasting to scales below the conventional synoptic or cyclonic scales in the near future is assessed. Lower costs per computation, more powerful computers, and a 100 km mesh over the North American area (with coarser mesh extending beyond it) are noted at present. Doubling the resolution even locally (to 50 km mesh) would entail a 16-fold increase in costs (including vertical resolution and halving the time interval), and constraints on domain size and length of forecast. Boundary conditions would be provided by the surrounding 100 km mesh, and time-varying lateral boundary conditions can be considered to handle moving phenomena. More physical processes to treat, more efficient numerical techniques, and faster computers (improved software and hardware) backing up satellite and radar data could produce further improvements in forecasting in the 1980s. Boundary layer modeling, initialization techniques, and quantitative precipitation forecasting are singled out among key tasks.

Influence of self-gravity on the runaway instability of black-hole-torus systems.

PubMed

Montero, Pedro J; Font, José A; Shibata, Masaru

2010-05-14

Results from the first fully general relativistic numerical simulations in axisymmetry of a system formed by a black hole surrounded by a self-gravitating torus in equilibrium are presented, aiming to assess the influence of the torus self-gravity on the onset of the runaway instability. We consider several models with varying torus-to-black-hole mass ratio and angular momentum distribution orbiting in equilibrium around a nonrotating black hole. The tori are perturbed to induce the mass transfer towards the black hole. Our numerical simulations show that all models exhibit a persistent phase of axisymmetric oscillations around their equilibria for several dynamical time scales without the appearance of the runaway instability, indicating that the self-gravity of the torus does not play a critical role favoring the onset of the instability, at least during the first few dynamical time scales.

Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

2009-09-01

In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

Investigation of multi-scale flash-weakening of rock surfaces during high speed slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbery, M. R.; Saber, O.; Chester, F. M.; Chester, J. S.

2017-12-01

A significant reduction in the coefficient of friction of rock can occur if sliding velocity approaches seismic rates as a consequence of weakening of microscopic sliding contacts by flash heating. Using a high-acceleration and -speed biaxial apparatus equipped with a high-speed Infra-Red (IR) camera to capture thermographs of the sliding surface, we have documented the heterogeneous distribution of temperature on flash-heated decimetric surfaces characterized by linear arrays of high-temperature, mm-size spots, and streaks. Numerical models that are informed by the character of flash heated surfaces and that consider the coupling of changes in temperature and changes in the friction of contacts, supports the hypothesis that independent mechanisms of flash weakening operate at different contact scales. Here, we report on new experiments that provide additional constraints on the life-times and rest-times of populations of millimeter-scale contacts. Rock friction experiments conducted on Westerly granite samples in a double-direct shear configuration achieve velocity steps from 1 mm/s to 900 mm/s at 100g accelerations over 2 mm of displacement with normal stresses of 22-36 MPa and 30 mm of displacement during sustained high-speed sliding. Sliding surfaces are machined to roughness similar to natural fault surfaces and that allow us to control the characteristics of millimeter-scale contact populations. Thermographs of the sliding surface show temperatures up to 200 C on millimeter-scale contacts, in agreement with 1-D heat conduction model estimates of 180 C. Preliminary comparison of thermal modeling results and experiment observations demonstrate that we can distinguish the different life-times and rest-times of contacts in thermographs and the corresponding frictional weakening behaviors. Continued work on machined surfaces that lead to different contact population characteristics will be used to test the multi-scale and multi-mechanism hypothesis for flash weakening during seismic slip on rough fault surfaces.

Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

2017-11-01

Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the three proposed models outperform the two traditional models and involving large-scale climatic indices can improve the forecasting accuracy.

Etiology and treatment of hematological neoplasms: stochastic mathematical models.

PubMed

Radivoyevitch, Tomas; Li, Huamin; Sachs, Rainer K

2014-01-01

Leukemias are driven by stemlike cancer cells (SLCC), whose initiation, growth, response to treatment, and posttreatment behavior are often "stochastic", i.e., differ substantially even among very similar patients for reasons not observable with present techniques. We review the probabilistic mathematical methods used to analyze stochastics and give two specific examples. The first example concerns a treatment protocol, e.g., for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), where intermittent cytotoxic drug dosing (e.g., once each weekday) is used with intent to cure. We argue mathematically that, if independent SLCC are growing stochastically during prolonged treatment, then, other things being equal, front-loading doses are more effective for tumor eradication than back loading. We also argue that the interacting SLCC dynamics during treatment is often best modeled by considering SLCC in microenvironmental niches, with SLCC-SLCC interactions occurring only among SLCC within the same niche, and we present a stochastic dynamics formalism, involving "Poissonization," applicable in such situations. Interactions at a distance due to partial control of total cell numbers are also considered. The second half of this chapter concerns chromosomal aberrations, lesions known to cause some leukemias. A specific example is the induction of a Philadelphia chromosome by ionizing radiation, subsequent development of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), CML treatment, and treatment outcome. This time evolution involves a coordinated sequence of > 10 steps, each stochastic in its own way, at the subatomic, molecular, macromolecular, cellular, tissue, and population scales, with corresponding time scales ranging from picoseconds to decades. We discuss models of these steps and progress in integrating models across scales.

Impact of state updating and multi-parametric ensemble for streamflow hindcasting in European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.

2015-12-01

Accurate and reliable streamflow prediction is essential to mitigate social and economic damage coming from water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. However, if parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by model ensemble may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we evaluate impacts of streamflow data assimilation over European river basins. Especially, a multi-parametric ensemble approach is tested to consider the effects of parametric uncertainty in DA. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be more stable with limited ensemble members and have potential for operational uses. To consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes, lagged particle filtering is utilized. The presentation will be focused on gains and limitations of streamflow data assimilation and multi-parametric ensemble method over large-scale basins.

The Role of Time-Scales in Socio-hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2016-04-01

Much of the interest in hydrological modeling in the past decades revolved around resolving spatial variability. With the rapid changes brought about by human impacts on the hydrologic cycle, there is now an increasing need to refocus on time dependency. We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, in which every part of the system including human systems, co-evolve, albeit at different rates. The resulting coupled human-nature system is framed as a dynamical system, characterized by interactions of fast and slow time scales and feedbacks between environmental and social processes. This gives rise to emergent phenomena such as the levee effect, adaptation to change and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system in a dynamic way. The co-evolutionary approach differs from the traditional view of water resource systems analysis as it allows for path dependence, multiple equilibria, lock-in situations and emergent phenomena. The approach may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesise the observed dynamics of different case studies. Future research opportunities include the study of how changes in human values are connected to human-water interactions, historical analyses of trajectories of system co-evolution in individual places and comparative analyses of contrasting human-water systems in different climate and socio-economic settings. Reference Sivapalan, M. and G. Blöschl (2015) Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water. Water Resour. Res., 51, 6988-7022, doi:10.1002/2015WR017896.

Multiscale Modeling of Human-Water Interactions: The Role of Time-Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloeschl, G.; Sivapalan, M.

2015-12-01

Much of the interest in hydrological modeling in the past decades revolved around resolving spatial variability. With the rapid changes brought about by human impacts on the hydrologic cycle, there is now an increasing need to refocus on time dependency. We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, in which every part of the system including human systems, co-evolve, albeit at different rates. The resulting coupled human-nature system is framed as a dynamical system, characterized by interactions of fast and slow time scales and feedbacks between environmental and social processes. This gives rise to emergent phenomena such as the levee effect, adaptation to change and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system in a dynamic way. The co-evolutionary approach differs from the traditional view of water resource systems analysis as it allows for path dependence, multiple equilibria, lock-in situations and emergent phenomena. The approach may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesise the observed dynamics of different case studies. Future research opportunities include the study of how changes in human values are connected to human-water interactions, historical analyses of trajectories of system co-evolution in individual places and comparative analyses of contrasting human-water systems in different climate and socio-economic settings. Reference Sivapalan, M. and G. Blöschl (2015) Time Scale Interactions and the Co-evolution of Humans and Water. Water Resour. Res., 51, in press.

Testing the Injectivity of CO2 in a Sub-surface Heterogeneous Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundal, A.; Nystuen, J.; Dypvik, H.; Aagaard, P.

2011-12-01

This case study on subsurface reservoir characterization, considers the effect of geological heterogeneities on the storage capacity and injectivity of the Johansen Formation, which is a deep, saline aquifer underlying the Troll Gas Field off the Norwegian coast. The Johansen Formation has been interpreted as a sandy, prograding unit, deposited in a shallow marine environment during Early Jurassic time, and is overlain by a shaly unit; the Amundsen Formation. It appears as a wedge shaped sandstone body, up to 140m thick, with an areal extent in the order of 10 000 km2. The Johansen Formation is currently being considered for large scale CO2 storage from two gas power plants situated on the west coast of Norway, both of which will operate with full scale CO2 handling, as proposed by Norwegian authorities. The storage capacity needed is in the order of 3 Mt CO2/year. With access to a new 3D seismic survey (Gassnova, 2010), and based on existing well log data from 25 penetrating wells, we have studied large scale geometries and intra-formational features, and built a geo-conceptual model of the Johansen Formation. The reservoir is heterogeneous, with distinct permeability zonation within clinothems separated by less permeable layers. In order to obtain better understanding of crucial reservoir parameters and supplement limited data, comparison of data from easily accessible analogue rock units is useful. For this purpose the unit should be well exposed and thoroughly documented, such as the Panther Tongue Member (Star Point Formation, Mesa Verde Group) in Book Cliffs, from which we have collected some comparable permeability estimates for the model. On a micro scale, mineralogy, grain size/shape and pore geometry constitue major controls on reservoir porosity and permeability. Direct geological information is at this point in time limited to a few meters of core, from which detailed mineralogical information has been derived (optical microscopy, SEM, XRD), and some additional data from side wall cores and cuttings. From this we evaluate facies dependence related to observed diagenetic features and compositional variations due to burial depth (2-4km), mainly considering chlorite coatings (preserving porosity) and cementation (calcite and quartz). Using Schlumberger soft-wares; Petrel (reservoir) and Eclipse (fluid flow), we are testing injection scenarios (one point, several points, bleeding wells) in several intra-formational geological settings. These results will be evaluated relative to the distribution of facies and heterogeneities in the reservoir, considering multiphase flow given the local pressure regime.

Evaluation of extraction methods for preparative scale obtention of mangiferin and lupeol from mango peels (Mangifera indica L.).

PubMed

Ruiz-Montañez, G; Ragazzo-Sánchez, J A; Calderón-Santoyo, M; Velázquez-de la Cruz, G; de León, J A Ramírez; Navarro-Ocaña, A

2014-09-15

Bioactive compounds have become very important in the food and pharmaceutical markets leading research interests seeking efficient methods for extracting these bioactive substances. The objective of this research is to implement preparative scale obtention of mangiferin and lupeol from mango fruit (Mangifera indica L.) of autochthonous and Ataulfo varieties grown in Nayarit, using emerging extraction techniques. Five extraction techniques were evaluated: maceration, Soxhlet, sonication (UAE), microwave (MAE) and high hydrostatic pressures (HHP). Two maturity stages (physiological and consumption) as well as peel and fruit pulp were evaluated for preparative scale implementation. Peels from Ataulfo mango at consumption maturity stage can be considered as a source of mangiferin and lupeol using the UEA method as it improves extraction efficiency by increasing yield and shortening time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response to a small external force and fluctuations of a passive particle in a one-dimensional diffusive environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huveneers, François

2018-04-01

We investigate the long-time behavior of a passive particle evolving in a one-dimensional diffusive random environment, with diffusion constant D . We consider two cases: (a) The particle is pulled forward by a small external constant force and (b) there is no systematic bias. Theoretical arguments and numerical simulations provide evidence that the particle is eventually trapped by the environment. This is diagnosed in two ways: The asymptotic speed of the particle scales quadratically with the external force as it goes to zero, and the fluctuations scale diffusively in the unbiased environment, up to possible logarithmic corrections in both cases. Moreover, in the large D limit (homogenized regime), we find an important transient region giving rise to other, finite-size scalings, and we describe the crossover to the true asymptotic behavior.

Subjective and objective scales to assess the development of children cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Pietrzak, S; Jóźwiak, M

2001-01-01

Many scoring systems hale been constructed to assess the motor development of cerebral palsy children and to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment. According to the purposes they fulfill, these instruments may be divided into three types: discriminative, evaluative and predictive. The design and measurement methodology are the criteria that determine whether a given scale is quantitative or qualitative in nature, and whether is should be considered to be objective or subjective. The article presents the "reaching, losing and regaining" scale (constructed by the authors to assess functional development and its changes in certain periods of time), the Munich Functional Development Diagnostics, and the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM). Special attention is given to the GMFM, its methods, evaluation of results, and application. A comparison of subjective and objective assessment of two cerebral palsy children is included.

Gravitational Collapse of Charged Matter in Einstein-DeSitter Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avinash, K.; Krishnan, V.

1997-11-01

Gravitational collapse of charged matter in expanding universe is studied. We consider a quasi neutral electron-ion-massive grain plasma in which all the three species are expanding at the same rate i.e., ni ∝ 1/R^3 [ ni is the number density of the i^ th species and R is the scale factor ]. In Einstein-DeSitter universe the scale factor R goes as ~ t^2/3. The electrons and ions follow Boltzmann's relation. The stability of this equilibrium is studied on Jeans times scale. Depending on the ratio a = fracq d^2Gmd^2 the growth of gravitational collapse is further moderated from t^2/3 growth. For a=1, the instability is completely quenched. In curvature and radiation dominated universe, there is no additional effect due to finite charge of the matter.

Model Uncertainty Quantification Methods For Data Assimilation In Partially Observed Multi-Scale Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S. D.; van Leeuwen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Model Uncertainty Quantification remains one of the central challenges of effective Data Assimilation (DA) in complex partially observed non-linear systems. Stochastic parameterization methods have been proposed in recent years as a means of capturing the uncertainty associated with unresolved sub-grid scale processes. Such approaches generally require some knowledge of the true sub-grid scale process or rely on full observations of the larger scale resolved process. We present a methodology for estimating the statistics of sub-grid scale processes using only partial observations of the resolved process. It finds model error realisations over a training period by minimizing their conditional variance, constrained by available observations. Special is that these realisations are binned conditioned on the previous model state during the minimization process, allowing for the recovery of complex error structures. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through numerical experiments on the multi-scale Lorenz 96' model. We consider different parameterizations of the model with both small and large time scale separations between slow and fast variables. Results are compared to two existing methods for accounting for model uncertainty in DA and shown to provide improved analyses and forecasts.