Northern Hemisphere climate trends in reanalysis and forecast model predictions: The 500 hPa annual means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordi, I.; Fraedrich, K.; Sutera, A.

2010-06-01

The lead time dependent climates of the ECMWF weather prediction model, initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis, are analysed using 44 years of day-1 to day-10 forecasts of the northern hemispheric 500-hPa geopotential height fields. The study addresses the question whether short-term tendencies have an impact on long-term trends. Comparing climate trends of ERA-40 with those of the forecasts, it seems that the forecast model rapidly loses the memory of initial conditions creating its own climate. All forecast trends show a high degree of consistency. Comparison results suggest that: (i) Only centers characterized by an upward trend are statistical significant when increasing the lead time. (ii) In midilatitudes an upward trend larger than the one observed in the reanalysis characterizes the forecasts, while in the tropics there is a good agreement. (iii) The downward trend in reanalysis at high latitudes characterizes also the day-1 forecast which, however, increasing lead time approaches zero.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

2013-04-01

Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a fixed magnitude are presented. Depending on the indicator selected, the sample variance and trend magnitude very different detection time estimates are obtained and in most cases not within the time required for anticipatory adaptation in the water resources sector. Additionally, the minimum changes in low flow indicators required to be detectable are large and changes are unlikely to be statistically detectable for many years. This means that water management and planning for anticipated future climatic changes will be required to take place without these changes being formally statistically detectable.Waiting for these trends to become formally detectable with the traditional statistical methods might not be an option for water resources management. Within the monitoring network, a considerable difference is apparent between stations in terms of detection times and changes required for detection. The existence of flow monitoring stations showing short detection times for specific indicators confirms the potential for identifying stations that may be first responders to climate induced changes. Identifying sentinel stations can increase the ability to more effectively optimise the deployment of resources for monitoring the influences of climatic change in a hydrometric reference network.

An assessment of optical and biogeochemical multi-decadal trends in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, J. G.; Siegel, D.; Nelson, N. B.

2016-02-01

Observations of optical and biogeochemical data, made as part of the Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea, allow for the examination of temporal trends in vertical light attenuation and their potential controls. Trends in both the magnitude and spectral slope of the diffuse attenuation coefficient should reflect changes in chlorophyll and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations in the Sargasso Sea. The length and methodological consistency of this time series provides an excellent opportunity to extend analyses of seasonal cycles of apparent optical properties to interannual and multi-year time scales. Here, we characterize changes in the size and shape of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra and compare them to temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and to discrete measurements of phytoplankton and CDOM absorption. The time series analyses reveal up to a 1.2% annual increase of the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient over the upper 70 m of the water column while showing no significant change in the spectral slope of diffuse attenuation over the course of the study. These observations indicate that increases in phytoplankton pigment concentration rather than changes in CDOM are the primary driver for the attenuation trends on multi-year timescales for this region.

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Trends in Fetal Medicine: A 10-Year Bibliometric Analysis of Prenatal Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Dhombres, Ferdinand; Bodenreider, Olivier

2018-01-01

The objective is to automatically identify trends in Fetal Medicine over the past 10 years through a bibliometric analysis of articles published in Prenatal Diagnosis, using text mining techniques. We processed 2,423 full-text articles published in Prenatal Diagnosis between 2006 and 2015. We extracted salient terms, calculated their frequencies over time, and established evolution profiles for terms, from which we derived falling, stable, and rising trends. We identified 618 terms with a falling trend, 2,142 stable terms, and 839 terms with a rising trend. Terms with increasing frequencies include those related to statistics and medical study design. The most recent of these terms reflect the new opportunities of next- generation sequencing. Many terms related to cytogenetics exhibit a falling trend. A bibliometric analysis based on text mining effectively supports identification of trends over time. This scalable approach is complementary to analyses based on metadata or expert opinion. PMID:29295220

Trends in child and adolescent obesity prevalence in economically advanced countries according to socioeconomic position: a systematic review.

PubMed

Chung, A; Backholer, K; Wong, E; Palermo, C; Keating, C; Peeters, A

2016-03-01

Recent obesity trends in children and adolescents suggest a plateau. However, it is unclear whether such trends have been experienced across socioeconomic groups. We analysed whether recent trends in child and adolescent overweight and obesity differ by socioeconomic position (SEP) across economically advanced countries. Eligible studies reported overweight and obesity prevalence in children and/or adolescents (2-18 years), for at least two time points since 1990, stratified by SEP. Socioeconomic differences in trends in child and adolescent overweight and obesity over time were analysed. Differences in trends between SEP groups were observed across a majority of studies. Over half the studies indicated increasing prevalence among low SEP children and adolescents compared to a third of studies among children and adolescents with a high SEP. Around half the studies indicated widening socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity. Since 2000 a majority of studies demonstrated no change or a decrease in prevalence among both high and low SEP groups. However around 40% of studies indicated widening of socioeconomic inequalities post-2000. While our study provides grounds for optimism, socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity continue to widen. These findings highlight the need for greater consideration of different population groups when implementing obesity interventions. © 2015 World Obesity.

Identification of nitrate long term trends in Loire-Brittany river district (France) in connection with hydrogeological contexts, agricultural practices and water table level variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, B.; Baran, N.; Bourgine, B.; Ratheau, D.

2009-04-01

The European Union (EU) has adopted directives requiring that Member States take measures to reach a "good" chemical status of water resources by the year 2015 (Water Framework Directive: WFD). Alongside, the Nitrates Directives (91/676/EEC) aims at controlling nitrogen pollution and requires Member States to identify groundwaters that contain more than 50 mg NO3 L-1 or could exceed this limit if preventive measures are not taken. In order to achieve these environmental objectives in the Loire-Brittany river basin, or to justify the non achievement of these objectives, a large dataset of nitrate concentrations (117.056 raw data distributed on 7.341 time-series) and water table level time-series (1.371.655 data distributed on 511 piezometers) is analysed from 1945 to 2007. The 156.700 sq km Loire-Brittany river basin shows various hydrogeological contexts, ranging from sedimentary aquifers to basement ones, with a few volcanic-rock aquifers. The knowledge of the evolution of agricultural practices is important in such a study and, even if this information is not locally available, agricultural practices have globally changed since the 1991 Nitrates Directives. The detailed dataset available for the Loire-Brittany basin aquifers is used to evaluate tools and to propose efficient methodologies for identifying and quantifying past and current trends in nitrate concentrations. Therefore, the challenge of this study is to propose a global and integrated approach which allows nitrate trend identifications for the whole Loire-Brittany river basin. The temporal piezometric behaviour of each aquifer is defined using geostatistical analyse of water table level time-series. This method requires the calculation of an experimental temporal variogram that can be fitted with a theoretical model valid for a large time range. Identification of contrasted behaviours (short term, annual or pluriannual water table fluctuations) allows a systematic classification of the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers. The nitrate dataset shows too many irregularities to employ traditional time-series approaches such as linear regression trend tests. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a robust statistical trend detection test that does not require verification of the normality of the dataset (Aguilar et al, 2007). Moreover, this test seems appropriate since it is less sensitive to missing or outlier data than a simple linear regression test. As the MK test can only detect monotonic trends, and as already done by Stuart et al., (2007) and Broers and Van der Grift (2004), the trend analyses are decennially partitioned in order to identify possible trend reversals for the studied period for each observation point. The trend identification is then spatialized by the use of the Kendall Regional (KR) test on homogenous zones characterized by their geology, their agricultural practices and their piezometric behaviour. The KR test, previously used by Frans and Helsel (2005) in the Columbia Basin Ground Water context, is quite similar to the MK test and consists of the creation of virtual regional boreholes using networks of boreholes located in the homogenous zones. This test allows the identification of regional monotonic trends, even in the zones where nitrate time-series are too small to detect significant trend per observation point. The MK test results show significant upward trends in nitrate concentrations in the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers when the test is computed on the 1945-2007 period. However, the decennial MK test shows different behaviours at smaller time scale. Some zones are characterized by a constant and significant increase in nitrate concentrations since 1945 (North-East of Brittany, North of Beauce) whereas others show a trend reversal (South of Brittany, Callovo-Oxfordian marls between Le Mans and Alençon, under covered Jurassic limestone around Poitiers). Furthermore, some rare zones show an increase in nitrate concentrations that follow a significant downward trend period (Orléans). In the nineties, a transition period may have occurred with a higher proportion of upward than downward trends (82 % against 7 % respectively) for the 1980-1990 period and a lower proportion of upward than downward trends for the 2000-2007 period (37 % against 51 % respectively). Combined with the analyse of the current groundwater nitrate concentrations, the KR test reveals zones where trends in nitrate concentrations have been significantly raising with high nitrate current mean values (> 50 mg NO3 L-1). On the other hand, some zones show a significant regional downward trend since 1995 and low current nitrate concentrations (< 20 mg NO3 L-1). Causes of trend reversals cannot be determined by the MK and KR statistical trend analyses, but the cross analyse of nitrate and water table level time-series gives a hint of a positive correlation between these two variables. Evolution of nitrate concentrations in superficial aquifers may thus depend on a combined effect of changes in both agricultural practices and evolution of water table levels linked with climatic context. References Aguilar J.B., Orban P., Dassargues A., Brouyère S., (2007) - Identification of groundwater quality trends in a chalk aquifer threatened by intensive agriculture in Belgium. Hydrogeology journal 15: 1615-1627. Broers H.P., van der Grift B., (2004) - Regional monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality. Journal of hydrology 296: 192-220. Frans L.M., Helsel D.R. (2005) - Evaluating regional trends in ground water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin Ground Water management Area, Washington. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5078, 7p. Stuart M.E., Chilton P.J., Kiniiburgh D.G., Cooper D.M., (2007) - Screening for long-term trends in groundwater nitrate monitoring data. Quaterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 40: 361-376. Funding The study was funded by the Loire-Brittany River Basin Agency and from proper BRGM funds.

Trends in Spouses’ Shared Time in the United States, 1965–2012

PubMed Central

Genadek, Katie R.; Flood, Sarah M.; Roman, Joan Garcia

2016-01-01

Despite major demographic changes over the past 50 years and strong evidence that time spent with a spouse is important for marriages, we know very little about how time with a spouse has changed—or not—in the United States. Using time diary data from 1965–2012, we examine trends in couples’ shared time in the United States during a period of major changes in American marriages and families. We find that couples without children spent more total time together and time alone together n 2012 than they did in 1965, with total time and time alone together both peaking in 1975. For parents, time spent together increased between 1965 and 2012, most dramatically for time spent with a spouse and children. Decomposition analyses show that changes in behavior rather than changing demographics explain these trends, and we find that the increases in couples’ shared time are primarily concentrated in leisure activities. PMID:27730493

Global Fire Trends from Satellite ATSR Instrument Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arino, Olivier; Casadio, Stefano; Serpe, Danilo

2010-12-01

Global night-time fire counts for the years from 1995 to 2009 have been obtained by using the latest version of Along Track Scanning Radiometer TOA radiance products (level 1), and related trends have been estimated. Possible biases due to cloud coverage variations have been assumed to be negligible. The sampling number (acquisition frequency) has also been analysed and proved not to influence our results. Global night-time fire trends have been evaluated by inspecting the time series of hot spots aggregated a) at 2°x2° scale; b) at district/country/region/continent scales, and c) globally. The statistical significance of the estimated trend parameters has been verified by means of the Mann-Kendal test. Results indicate that no trends in the absolute number of spots can be identified at the global scale, that there has been no appreciable shift in the fire season during the last fourteen years, and that statistically significant positive and negative trends are only found when data are aggregated at smaller scales.

Long-term vegetation activity trends in the Iberian Peninsula and The Balearic Islands using high spatial resolution NOAA-AVHRR data (1981 - 2015).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Hernandez, Natalia; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Begueria-Portugues, Santiago; Reig-Gracia, Fergus; Zabalza-Martínez, Javier

2017-04-01

We have analysed trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Iberian Peninsula and The Balearic Islands over the period 1981 - 2015 using a new high resolution data set from the entire available NOAA - AVHRR images (IBERIAN NDVI dataset). After a complete processing including geocoding, calibration, cloud removal, topographic correction and temporal filtering, we obtained bi-weekly time series. To assess the accuracy of the new IBERIAN NDVI time-series, we have compared temporal variability and trends of NDVI series with those results reported by GIMMS 3g and MODIS (MOD13A3) NDVI datasets. In general, the IBERIAN NDVI showed high reliability with these two products but showing higher spatial resolution than the GIMMS dataset and covering two more decades than the MODIS dataset. Using the IBERIAN NDVI dataset, we analysed NDVI trends by means of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimator. In average, vegetation trends in the study area show an increase over the last decades. However, there are local spatial differences: the main increase has been recorded in humid regions of the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The statistical techniques allow finding abrupt and gradual changes in different land cover types during the analysed period. These changes are related with human activity due to land transformations (from dry to irrigated land), land abandonment and forest recovery.

Does speed matter? The impact of operative time on outcome in laparoscopic surgery

PubMed Central

Jackson, Timothy D.; Wannares, Jeffrey J.; Lancaster, R. Todd; Rattner, David W.

2012-01-01

Introduction Controversy exists concerning the importance of operative time on patient outcomes. It is unclear whether faster is better or haste makes waste or similarly whether slower procedures represent a safe, meticulous approach or inexperienced dawdling. The objective of the present study was to determine the effect of operative time on 30-day outcomes in laparoscopic surgery. Methods Patients who underwent laparoscopic general surgery procedures (colectomy, cholecystectomy, Nissen fundoplication, inguinal hernia, and gastric bypass) from the ACS-NSQIP 2005–2008 participant use file were identified. Exclusion criteria were defined a priori to identify same-day admission, elective procedures. Operative time was divided into deciles and summary statistics were analyzed. Univariate analyses using a Cochran-Armitage test for trend were completed. The effect of operative time on 30-day morbidity was further analyzed for each procedure type using multivariate regression controlling for case complexity and additional patient factors. Patients within the highest deciles were excluded to reduce outlier effect. Results A total of 76,748 elective general surgical patients who underwent laparoscopic procedures were analyzed. Univariate analyses of deciles of operative time demonstrated a statistically significant trend (p \\ 0.0001) toward increasing odds of complications with increasing operative time for laparoscopic colectomy (n = 10,135), cholecystectomy (n = 37,407), Nissen fundoplication (n = 4,934), and gastric bypass (n = 17,842). The trend was not found to be significant for laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair (n = 6,430; p = 0.14). Multivariate modeling revealed the effect of operative time to remain significant after controlling for additional patient factors. Conclusion Increasing operative time was associated with increased odds of complications and, therefore, it appears that speed may matter in laparoscopic surgery. These analyses are limited in their inability to adjust for all patient factors, potential confounders, and case complexities. Additional hierarchical multivariate analyses at the surgeon level would be important to examine this relationship further. PMID:21298533

Does speed matter? The impact of operative time on outcome in laparoscopic surgery.

PubMed

Jackson, Timothy D; Wannares, Jeffrey J; Lancaster, R Todd; Rattner, David W; Hutter, Matthew M

2011-07-01

Controversy exists concerning the importance of operative time on patient outcomes. It is unclear whether faster is better or haste makes waste or similarly whether slower procedures represent a safe, meticulous approach or inexperienced dawdling. The objective of the present study was to determine the effect of operative time on 30-day outcomes in laparoscopic surgery. Patients who underwent laparoscopic general surgery procedures (colectomy, cholecystectomy, Nissen fundoplication, inguinal hernia, and gastric bypass) from the ACS-NSQIP 2005-2008 participant use file were identified. Exclusion criteria were defined a priori to identify same-day admission, elective procedures. Operative time was divided into deciles and summary statistics were analyzed. Univariate analyses using a Cochran-Armitage test for trend were completed. The effect of operative time on 30-day morbidity was further analyzed for each procedure type using multivariate regression controlling for case complexity and additional patient factors. Patients within the highest deciles were excluded to reduce outlier effect. A total of 76,748 elective general surgical patients who underwent laparoscopic procedures were analyzed. Univariate analyses of deciles of operative time demonstrated a statistically significant trend (p<0.0001) toward increasing odds of complications with increasing operative time for laparoscopic colectomy (n=10,135), cholecystectomy (n=37,407), Nissen fundoplication (n=4,934), and gastric bypass (n=17,842). The trend was not found to be significant for laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair (n=6,430; p=0.14). Multivariate modeling revealed the effect of operative time to remain significant after controlling for additional patient factors. Increasing operative time was associated with increased odds of complications and, therefore, it appears that speed may matter in laparoscopic surgery. These analyses are limited in their inability to adjust for all patient factors, potential confounders, and case complexities. Additional hierarchical multivariate analyses at the surgeon level would be important to examine this relationship further.

Problems with the Fraser report Chapter 1: Pitfalls in BMI time trend analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Ernest

2014-11-05

The first chapter of the Fraser report "Obesity in Canada: Overstated Problems, Misguided Policy Solutions" presents a flawed and misleading analysis of BMI time trends. The objective of this commentary is to provide a tutorial on BMI time trend analysis through the examination of these flaws. Three issues are discussed: 1. Spotting regions of confidence interval overlap is a statistically flawed method of assessing trend; regression methods which measure the behaviour of the data as a whole are preferred. 2. Temporal stability in overweight (25≤BMI<30) prevalence must be interpreted in the context of the underlying population BMI distribution. 3. BMI is considered reliable for tracking population-level weight trends due to its high correlation with body fat percentage. BMI-defined obesity prevalence represents a conservative underestimate of the population at risk. The findings of the Fraser report Chapter 1 are either refuted or substantially mitigated once the above issues are accounted for, and we do not find that the 'Canadian situation largely lacks a disconcerting or negative trend', as claimed. It is hoped that this commentary will help guide public health professionals who need to interpret, or wish to perform their own, time trend analyses of BMI.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

PubMed

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

PubMed

Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

2014-08-15

Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p < 0.001). This increase was more marked in younger participants and those with high-school education. Transportation physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p < 0.001) from 2006 to 2008 and 5.8% per year from 2009 to 2012 (p < 0.001). The annual decline in television viewing time was 5% (p < 0.001) between 2006 and 2009 and 2% (p = 0.16) between 2010 and 2012. National survey data from Brazil indicate that leisure-time physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

Performance time transformed by count as a determinant of difficulty in the Shotokan karate Heian kata set.

PubMed

Layton, C; Lawrence, J M

1997-06-01

Black-belt subjects (10 men) were timed on each of the five Heian kata and the scores transformed by count. Trend analyses showed that increased performance time was significantly related to assumed complexity in Heian ranking.

Research Trends in Mobile Assisted Language Learning from 2000 to 2012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duman, Guler; Orhon, Gunseli; Gedik, Nuray

2015-01-01

In order to trace how mobile assisted language learning (MALL) has evolved in recent years, we analysed studies published from 2000 to 2012 to examine their characteristics and research trends. These studies were published in international journals listed in the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Sixty-nine studies that fit the time frame and…

Evolving Trends in Public Opinion on the Quality of Local Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bali, Valentina A.

2016-01-01

The ratings given by citizens to local public schools in the United States have been rising in the last decades. Using national public opinion surveys, this study seeks to understand the determinants of public evaluations of local schools across time. Aggregate trend analyses indicate that public evaluations of local schools are influenced not…

Trends in hospitalizations for community-acquired pneumonia in Spain: 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

de Miguel-Díez, Javier; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-Trujillo, Isabel; de Miguel-Yanes, José M; Méndez-Bailón, Manuel; López-de-Andrés, Ana

2017-05-01

To describe trends in the incidence and outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) hospitalizations in Spain (2004-2013). We used national hospital discharge data to select all hospital admissions for CAP as primary diagnosis. We analyzed incidence, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, pathogens, length of hospital stay (LOHS), in-hospital mortality (IHM) and readmission. We identified 959,465 admissions for CAP. Incidence rates of CAP increased significantly over time (from 142.4 in 2004 to 163.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013). Time trend analyses showed significant increases in the number of comorbidities and the use of CAT of thorax, red cell transfusion, non-invasive mechanical ventilation and readmissions (all p values<0.05). S. pneumoniae was the most frequent causative agent, but its isolation decreased over time. Overall median of LOHS was 7days and it did not change significantly during the study period. Time trend analyses also showed significant decreases in mortality during admission for CAP. Factor associated with higher IHM included: older age, higher CCI, S. aureus isolated, use of red cell transfusion or mechanical ventilation and readmission. The incidence and mortality of CAP have changed in Spain from 2004 to 2013. Although there was an increased incidence of hospitalization for this disease over time, we saw a significant reduction in IHM. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal trends in serum ferritin levels and associated factors in a national incident hemodialysis cohort.

PubMed

Kim, Taehee; Rhee, Connie M; Streja, Elani; Obi, Yoshitsugu; Brunelli, Steven M; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

2017-02-01

The rise in serum ferritin levels among US maintenance hemodialysis patients has been attributed to higher intravenous iron administration and other changes in practice. We examined ferritin trends over time in hemodialysis patients and whether iron utilization patterns and other factors [erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA) prescribing patterns, inflammatory markers] were associated with ferritin trajectory. In a 5-year (January 2007–December 2011) cohort of 81 864 incident US hemodialysis patients, we examined changes in ferritin averaged over 3-month intervals using linear mixed effects models adjusted for intravenous iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers. We then examined ferritin trends across strata of baseline ferritin level, dialysis initiation year, cumulative iron and ESA use in the first dialysis year and baseline hemoglobin level. In models adjusted for iron dose, malnutrition and inflammation, mean ferritin levels increased over time in the overall cohort and across the three lower baseline ferritin strata. Among patients initiating dialysis in 2007, mean ferritin levels increased sharply in the first versus second year of dialysis and again abruptly increased in the fifth year independent of iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers; similar trends were observed among patients who initiated dialysis in 2008 and 2009. In analyses stratified by cumulative iron use, mean ferritin increased among groups receiving iron, but decreased in the no iron group. In analyses stratified by cumulative ESA dose and baseline hemoglobin, mean ferritin increased over time. While ferritin trends correlated with patterns of iron use, increases in ferritin over time persisted independent of intravenous iron and ESA exposure, malnutrition and inflammation.

Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) and analyzing the MEEMD-extracted trends of these climatic elements, we discussed possible driving factors of the time-varying trends of NDVI in several specific regions where trend reversals occurred.

Dry spell trend analysis in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin using daily rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muita, R. R.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.

2012-04-01

Important agricultural areas in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia are largely semi-arid to arid. Persistent dry periods and timing of dry spells directly impact the availability of soil moisture and hence crop production in these regions. Most studies focus on the analysis of dry spell lengths at an annual scale. However, timing and length of dry spells at finer temporal scales is more beneficial for cropping when considering a trade-off between the time scale and the ability to analyse dry spell length. The aim of this study was to analyse the interannual and intra annual variations in dry spell lengths in the regions to inform crop management. This study analysed monthly dry spells based on daily rainfall for 1961-2010 on a limited dataset of 13 locations in Kenya and 17 locations in the MDB. This dataset was the most consistent across both regions and future analysis will incorporate more stations and longer time periods where available. Dry spell lengths were analysed by month and year and trends in monthly and annual dry spell lengths were analysed using Generalised Linear Models (GLM) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Overall, monthly dryspell lengths are right skewed with higher frequency of shorter dryspells (3-25 days). In Kenya, significant increases in mean dry spell lengths (p≤0.02) are observed in inland arid-to semi humid locations but this temporal trend appears to decrease in highland and the coastal regions. Analysis of the MDB stations suggests changes in seasonality. For example, spatial trends suggest a North-South increase in dry spell length in summer (December - February), but a shortening after February. Generally, the GLM and MK results are similar in the two regions but the MK test tends to give higher values of positive slope coefficients and lower values for negative coefficients compared to GLM. This may limit the ability of finding the best estimates for model coefficients. Previous studies in Australia and Kenya have relied on continuous climatic indices based on global climate models and stochastic processes resulting in limited and mixed results. For agronomical purposes, our results show that direct assessment of dry spells lengths from daily rainfall also indicates changes in dry spells trends in Kenya and the MDB and that such an analysis is easy to use and requires limited assumptions. This initial analysis identifies significant increasing trends in the dry spell lengths in some areas and periods in Kenya and the MDB. This has major implications for crop production in these regions and it is recommended that this information be incorporated in the regions' management decisions. KEY WORDS: monthly dry spell length; Generalized Linear Models; Mann -Kendall test; month; Kenya, Murray Darling Basin (MDB).

Regional Variations in Suicide and Undetermined Death Rates among Adolescents across Canada.

PubMed

Renaud, Johanne; Lesage, Alain; Gagné, Mathieu; MacNeil, Sasha; Légaré, Gilles; Geoffroy, Marie-Claude; Skinner, Robin; McFaull, Steven

2018-04-01

Trends in rates of adolescent suicide and undetermined deaths in Canada from 1981 to 2012 were examined, focusing specifically on variations between Canadian regions. Exploratory hypotheses were formulated for regional variability in adolescent suicide rates over time in Canada. A descriptive time trend analysis using public domain vital statistics data was performed. All deaths from 1981 to 2012 among 15 to 19 year olds coded as suicides or undetermined intent according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9 th and 10 th Revisions were included. While there was an overall stability in adolescent suicide and undetermined death rates across Canada, regional analyses showed that Quebec experienced a 7.6% annual reduction between 2001 and 2012 while the Prairies and Atlantic provinces experienced significant annual increases since 2001. Ontario and British Columbia have had non-significant fluctuations since 2001. The trends remained similar overall when excluding undetermined deaths from the analyses. Variations in adolescent suicide trends across provinces were found. Factors such as provincial suicide action and prevention legislation contributing to these variations remain to be studied, but these regional differences point towards the need for better consistency of suicide prevention strategies across the country.

Regional Variations in Suicide and Undetermined Death Rates among Adolescents across Canada

PubMed Central

Lesage, Alain; Gagné, Mathieu; MacNeil, Sasha; Légaré, Gilles; Geoffroy, Marie-Claude; Skinner, Robin; McFaull, Steven

2018-01-01

Objective Trends in rates of adolescent suicide and undetermined deaths in Canada from 1981 to 2012 were examined, focusing specifically on variations between Canadian regions. Exploratory hypotheses were formulated for regional variability in adolescent suicide rates over time in Canada. Methods A descriptive time trend analysis using public domain vital statistics data was performed. All deaths from 1981 to 2012 among 15 to 19 year olds coded as suicides or undetermined intent according to the International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10th Revisions were included. Results While there was an overall stability in adolescent suicide and undetermined death rates across Canada, regional analyses showed that Quebec experienced a 7.6% annual reduction between 2001 and 2012 while the Prairies and Atlantic provinces experienced significant annual increases since 2001. Ontario and British Columbia have had non-significant fluctuations since 2001. The trends remained similar overall when excluding undetermined deaths from the analyses. Conclusions Variations in adolescent suicide trends across provinces were found. Factors such as provincial suicide action and prevention legislation contributing to these variations remain to be studied, but these regional differences point towards the need for better consistency of suicide prevention strategies across the country. PMID:29662522

Partition of genetic trends by origin in Landrace and Large-White pigs.

PubMed

Škorput, D; Gorjanc, G; Kasap, A; Luković, Z

2015-10-01

The objective of this study was to analyse the effectiveness of genetic improvement via domestic selection and import for backfat thickness and time on test in a conventional pig breeding programme for Landrace (L) and Large-White (LW) breeds. Phenotype data was available for 25 553 L and 10 432 LW pigs born between 2002 and 2012 from four large-scale farms and 72 family farms. Pedigree information indicated whether each animal was born and registered within the domestic breeding programme or has been imported. This information was used for defining the genetic groups of unknown parents in a pedigree and the partitioning analysis. Breeding values were estimated using a Bayesian analysis of an animal model with and without genetic groups. Such analysis enabled full Bayesian inference of the genetic trends and their partitioning by the origin of germplasm. Estimates of genetic group indicated that imported germplasm was overall better than domestic and substantial changes in estimates of breeding values was observed when genetic group were fitted. The estimated genetic trends in L were favourable and significantly different from zero by the end of the analysed period. Overall, the genetic trends in LW were not different from zero. The relative contribution of imported germplasm to genetic trends was large, especially towards the end of analysed period with 78% and 67% in L and from 50% to 67% in LW. The analyses suggest that domestic breeding activities and sources of imported animals need to be re-evaluated, in particular in LW breed.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Global Snow-Cover Evolution from Twenty Years of Satellite Passive Microwave Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mognard, N.M.; Kouraev, A.V.; Josberger, E.G.

2003-01-01

Starting in 1979 with the SMMR (Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer) instrument onboard the satellite NIMBUS-7 and continuing since 1987 with the SSMI (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) instrument on board the DMSP (Defence Meteorological Satellite Program) series, more then twenty years of satellite passive microwave data are now available. This dataset has been processed to analyse the evolution of the global snow cover. This work is part of the AICSEX project from the 5th Framework Programme of the European Community. The spatio-temporal evolution of the satellite-derived yearly snow maximum extent and the timing of the spring snow melt were estimated and analysed over the Northern Hemisphere. Significant differences between the evolution of the yearly maximum snow extent in Eurasia and in North America were found. A positive correlation between the maximum yearly snow cover extent and the ENSO index was obtained. High interannual spatio-temporal variability characterises the timing of snow melt in the spring. Twenty-year trends in the timing of spring snow melt have been computed and compared with spring air temperature trends for the same period and the same area. In most parts of Eurasia and in the central and western parts of North America the tendency has been for earlier snow melt. In northeastern Canada, a large area of positive trends, where snow melt timing starts later than in the early 1980s, corresponds to a region of positive trends of spring air temperature observed over the same period.

Monitoring gradual ecosystem change using Landsat time series analyses: case studies in selected forest and rangeland ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogelmann, James E.; Xian, George; Homer, Collin G.; Tolk, Brian

2012-01-01

The focus of the study was to assess gradual changes occurring throughout a range of natural ecosystems using decadal Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM +) time series data. Time series data stacks were generated for four study areas: (1) a four scene area dominated by forest and rangeland ecosystems in the southwestern United States, (2) a sagebrush-dominated rangeland in Wyoming, (3) woodland adjacent to prairie in northwestern Nebraska, and (4) a forested area in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Through analyses of time series data, we found evidence of gradual systematic change in many of the natural vegetation communities in all four areas. Many of the conifer forests in the southwestern US are showing declines related to insects and drought, but very few are showing evidence of improving conditions or increased greenness. Sagebrush communities are showing decreases in greenness related to fire, mining, and probably drought, but very few of these communities are showing evidence of increased greenness or improving conditions. In Nebraska, forest communities are showing local expansion and increased canopy densification in the prairie–woodland interface, and in the White Mountains high elevation understory conifers are showing range increases towards lower elevations. The trends detected are not obvious through casual inspection of the Landsat images. Analyses of time series data using many scenes and covering multiple years are required in order to develop better impressions and representations of the changing ecosystem patterns and trends that are occurring. The approach described in this paper demonstrates that Landsat time series data can be used operationally for assessing gradual ecosystem change across large areas. Local knowledge and available ancillary data are required in order to fully understand the nature of these trends.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

The relative importance of random error and observation frequency in detecting trends in upper tropospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-11-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Measuring trends in age at first sex and age at marriage in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Cremin, I; Mushati, P; Hallett, T; Mupambireyi, Z; Nyamukapa, C; Garnett, G P; Gregson, S

2009-04-01

To identify reporting biases and to determine the influence of inconsistent reporting on observed trends in the timing of age at first sex and age at marriage. Longitudinal data from three rounds of a population-based cohort in eastern Zimbabwe were analysed. Reports of age at first sex and age at marriage from 6837 individuals attending multiple rounds were classified according to consistency. Survival analysis was used to identify trends in the timing of first sex and marriage. In this population, women initiate sex and enter marriage at younger ages than men but spend much less time between first sex and marriage. Among those surveyed between 1998 and 2005, median ages at first sex and first marriage were 18.5 years and 21.4 years for men and 18.2 years and 18.5 years, respectively, for women aged 15-54 years. High levels of reports of both age at first sex and age at marriage among those attending multiple surveys were found to be unreliable. Excluding reports identified as unreliable from these analyses did not alter the observed trends in either age at first sex or age at marriage. Tracing birth cohorts as they aged revealed reporting biases, particularly among the youngest cohorts. Comparisons by birth cohorts, which span a period of >40 years, indicate that median age at first sex has remained constant over time for women but has declined gradually for men. Although many reports of age at first sex and age at marriage were found to be unreliable, inclusion of such reports did not result in artificial generation or suppression of trends.

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News

PubMed Central

Nghiem, Le T. P.; Papworth, Sarah K.; Lim, Felix K. S.; Carrasco, Luis R.

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics—approximated using Google search volume—varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public. PMID:27028399

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

PubMed

Nghiem, Le T P; Papworth, Sarah K; Lim, Felix K S; Carrasco, Luis R

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of sampling.   PMID:9764107

Measuring trends of outpatient antibiotic use in Europe: jointly modelling longitudinal data in defined daily doses and packages.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Goossens, Herman; Molenberghs, Geert; Coenen, Samuel

2014-07-01

To complement analyses of the linear trend and seasonal fluctuation of European outpatient antibiotic use expressed in defined daily doses (DDD) by analyses of data in packages, to assess the agreement between both measures and to study changes in the number of DDD per package over time. Data on outpatient antibiotic use, aggregated at the level of the active substance (WHO version 2011) were collected from 2000 to 2007 for 31 countries and expressed in DDD and packages per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID and PID, respectively). Data expressed in DID and PID were analysed separately using non-linear mixed models while the agreement between these measurements was analysed through a joint non-linear mixed model. The change in DDD per package over time was studied with a linear mixed model. Total outpatient antibiotic and penicillin use in Europe and their seasonal fluctuation significantly increased in DID, but not in PID. The use of combinations of penicillins significantly increased in DID and in PID. Broad-spectrum penicillin use did not increase significantly in DID and decreased significantly in PID. For all but one subgroup, country-specific deviations moved in the same direction whether measured in DID or PID. The correlations are not perfect. The DDD per package increased significantly over time for all but one subgroup. Outpatient antibiotic use in Europe shows contrasting trends, depending on whether DID or PID is used as the measure. The increase of the DDD per package corroborates the recommendation to adopt PID to monitor outpatient antibiotic use in Europe. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison and covalidation of ozone anomalies and variability observed in SBUV(/2) and Umkehr northern midlatitude ozone profile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I.; Ahn, Changwoo; Bhartia, P. K.; Flynn, L. E.

2005-03-01

This analysis presents comparisons of upper-stratosphere ozone information observed by two independent systems: the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV and SBUV/2) satellite instruments, and ground-based Dobson spectrophotometers. Both the new SBUV Version 8 and the new UMK04 profile retrieval algorithms are optimized for studying long-term variability and trends in ozone. Trend analyses of the ozone time series from the SBUV(/2) data set are complex because of the multiple instruments involved, changes in the instruments' geo-location, and short periods of overlaps for inter-calibrations among different instruments. Three northern middle latitudes Dobson ground stations (Arosa, Boulder, and Tateno) are used in this analysis to validate the trend quality of the combined 25-year SBUV/2 time series, 1979 to 2003. Generally, differences between the satellite and ground-based data do not suggest any significant time-dependent shifts or trends. The shared features confirm the value of these data sets for studies of ozone variability.

The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach.

PubMed

Kramer, Daniëlle; Droomers, Mariël; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Wingen, Marleen; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

2014-03-11

Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004-2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions.

The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Methods Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004–2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Results Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Conclusion Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions. PMID:24612770

Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Mette; Krølner, Rikke; Svastisalee, Chalida Mae; Due, Pernille; Holstein, Bjørn Evald

2008-01-01

Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871) from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values < 0.0001). In all age and gender groups, a significant increase in intake occurred between 2002 and 2006 (all p-values < 0.0065). Analyses of alternative cut-points revealed similar results. Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not solely caused by methodological biases related to changes in measurements. PMID:18237390

Trends in stunting and overweight in Peruvian pre-schoolers from 1991 to 2011: findings from the Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Urke, Helga Bjørnøy; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Valdivia, Martín

2014-11-01

To examine trends in stunting and overweight in Peruvian children, using 2006 WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study criteria. Trend analyses using nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from Demographic and Health Surveys (1991-2011). We performed logistic regression analyses of stunting and overweight trends in sociodemographic groups (sex, age, urban-rural residence, region, maternal education and household wealth), adjusted for sampling design effects (strata, clusters and sampling weights). Peru. Children aged 0-59 months surveyed in 1991-92 (n 7999), 1996 (n 14 877), 2000 (n 11 754), 2007-08 (n 8232) and 2011 (n 8186). Child stunting declined (F(1, 5149) = 174·8, P ≤ 0·00) and child overweight was stable in the period 1991-2011 (F(1, 5147) = 0·4, P ≤ 0·54). Over the study period, levels of stunting were highest in rural compared with urban areas, the Andean and Amazon regions compared with the Coast, among children of low-educated mothers and among children living in households in the poorest wealth quintile. The trend in overweight rose among males in coastal areas (F(1, 2250) = 4·779, P ≤ 0·029) and among males in the richest wealth quintile (F(1, 1730) = 5·458, P ≤ 0·020). The 2011 levels of stunting and overweight were eight times and three and a half times higher, respectively, than the expected levels from the 2006 WHO growth standards. The trend over the study period in stunting declined in most sociodemographic subgroups. The trend in overweight was stable in most sociodemographic subgroups.

Trends in health inequalities in 27 European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; Valverde, José Rubio; Artnik, Barbara; Bopp, Matthias; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Deboosere, Patrick; Kalediene, Ramune; Kovács, Katalin; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Menvielle, Gwenn; Regidor, Enrique; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Vineis, Paolo; White, Chris; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Hu, Yannan; Nusselder, Wilma J

2018-06-19

Unfavorable health trends among the lowly educated have recently been reported from the United States. We analyzed health trends by education in European countries, paying particular attention to the possibility of recent trend interruptions, including interruptions related to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We collected and harmonized data on mortality from ca 1980 to ca 2014 for 17 countries covering 9.8 million deaths and data on self-reported morbidity from ca 2002 to ca 2014 for 27 countries covering 350,000 survey respondents. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes over time and country-fixed effects analyses to study the impact of crisis-related economic conditions on health outcomes. Recent trends were more favorable than in previous decades, particularly in Eastern Europe, where mortality started to decline among lowly educated men and where the decline in less-than-good self-assessed health accelerated, resulting in some narrowing of health inequalities. In Western Europe, mortality has continued to decline among the lowly and highly educated, and although the decline of less-than-good self-assessed health slowed in countries severely hit by the financial crisis, this affected lowly and highly educated equally. Crisis-related economic conditions were not associated with widening health inequalities. Our results show that the unfavorable trends observed in the United States are not found in Europe. There has also been no discernible short-term impact of the crisis on health inequalities at the population level. Both findings suggest that European countries have been successful in avoiding an aggravation of health inequalities.

Prominence of scientific publications towards peri-implant complications in implantology: A bibliometric analysis using the H-classics method.

PubMed

Chiang, H-S; Huang, R-Y; Weng, P-W; Mau, L-P; Tsai, Y-W C; Chung, M-P; Chung, C-H; Yeh, H-W; Shieh, Y-S; Cheng, W-C

2018-03-01

Current bibliometric analyses of the evolving trends in research scope category across different time periods using the H-classics method in implantology are considerably limited. The purpose of this study was to identify the classic articles in implantology to analyse bibliometric characteristics and associated factors in implantology for the past four decades. H-Classics in implantology were identified within four time periods between 1977 and 2016, based on the h-index from the Scopus ® database. For each article, the principal bibliometric parameters of authorship, geographic origin, country origin, and institute origin, collaboration, centralisation, article type, scope of study and other associated factors were analysed in four time periods. A significant increase in mean numbers of authors per H-Classics was found across time. Both Europe and North America were the most productive region/country and steadily dominated this field in each time period. Collaborations of author, internationally and inter-institutionally had significantly increased across time. A significant decentralisation in authorships, institutes and journals was noted in past four decades. The journal of Clinical Oral Implant Researches has raised its importance for almost 30 years (1987-2016). Research on Complications, peri-implant infection/pathology/therapy had been increasing in production throughout each period. This is the first study to evaluate research trends in implantology in the past 40 years using the H-classics method, which through analysing via principle bibliometric characteristics reflected a historical perspective on evolutionary mainstream in the field. Prominence of research regarding complications may forecast innovative advancements in future. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993-2008.

PubMed

Amugsi, Dickson A; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Lartey, Anna

2013-10-16

A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country's geographic regions. The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio-demographic segments, including worsening levels of malnutrition. This paper shows the importance of disaggregated analyses of national child malnutrition data, to unmask underlying geographic and socio-demographic differences.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analysis: Winter (II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of winter and its corresponding months (December, January, February) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal trend analyses of Tmax shows that global trend 1951-2010 was positive and significant mostly in central-western areas; from 1970 to 2010 there is less than 20% of land with significant trend. In the case of Tmin no relevant significant period is detected. • Monthly Tmax analyses show that December significant trend changed from positive (>20%) in between 1955-2010 until 1962-2010, to negative from 1976-2010. Meanwhile January does not show relevant period with significant trend; finally Tmax in February shows different periods with positive significant trend (>20% of land) 1951-2010 to 1954-2010 and 1962-2010 to 1968-2010. No significant trend is detected after this data. • Monthly Tmin trend analyses show that except exceptional period, no months present any significant trend. As conclusions, we have detected that for winter and winter-months, Tmax trends are not significant from 1970 across Spanish mainland. In the case of Tmin we conclude that no significant trend have been occurred in any temporal windows analyzed. Results differ from what traditionally has been assumed that the increase of the average annual temperature was due to the increase of trends in the winter season. And these analyses also show that seasonal trend values could hide monthly behavior. So extreme caution should be taken into account when seasonal values are offered.

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Case report classics in otolaryngology - head and neck surgery: citation analysis.

PubMed

Edelmayer, L W; Fenton, J E; Yellin, S A; Shearer, D J; Coelho, D H

2018-06-12

To analyse publication and citations trends of case reports within otolaryngology - head and neck surgery literature, with specific attention to the most-cited reports.Study designDatabase query. Web of Science was searched for article type 'case reports' published in the leading otolaryngology - head and neck surgery journals since 1945. Variables including publication dates, citation dates and numbers, author, author number, and others were recorded and analysed for trends. The reports with the most citations (classics) were further studied. Of nearly 67 000 published articles in leading otolaryngology - head and neck surgery journals, the overall number of case reports as a percentage of the total has substantially decreased over time. A total of 110 case report classics were identified for which citations have increased. Although the case report may not be worthy of its tarnished record, declining trends in publication suggest a limited future for this valuable research and educational resource.

Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

PubMed

Aguirre-Salado, Alejandro Ivan; Vaquera-Huerta, Humberto; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo; Reyes-Mora, Silvia; Olvera-Cervantes, Ana Delia; Lancho-Romero, Guillermo Arturo; Soubervielle-Montalvo, Carlos

2017-07-06

We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995-2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model's performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.

Developing a Hierarchical Model for the Spatial Analysis of PM10 Pollution Extremes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Aguirre-Salado, Alejandro Ivan; Vaquera-Huerta, Humberto; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo; Reyes-Mora, Silvia; Olvera-Cervantes, Ana Delia; Lancho-Romero, Guillermo Arturo; Soubervielle-Montalvo, Carlos

2017-01-01

We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995–2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model’s performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μg/m3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area. PMID:28684720

[Trends in thyroid surgery at the Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubirán].

PubMed

Herrera, M F; López, C M; Saldaña, J; Pérez, B; Rivera, R; González, O; Angeles, A; Letayf, V

1995-01-01

The diagnosis and treatment of thyroid disease has significantly changed with time. With the aim of analysing changes in thyroid surgery in our institution, a representative sample of patients from the first three years in four decades (1960-1992) were comparatively analysed. In the sixties, the diagnosis of thyroid cancer was made during surgery; by contrast, this diagnosis was correctly done by fine needle aspiration (FNA) in most patients of the last decade. Thyroid lobectomy, infrequently used in the treatment of differentiated thyroid carcinoma in earlier times, has now been abandoned and currently most patients undergo total or near-total thyroidectomy. Complications such as hypoparathyroidism and recurrent laryngeal nerve paralysis have importantly decreased with time and were not seen in the last decade. A trend toward an earlier diagnosis of thyroid carcinoma was also observed. In summary, the number of thyroidectomies for benign diseases has been importantly reduced by the use of FNA with the proportional increment of surgery for malignant disease.

Detection of Functional Change Using Cluster Trend Analysis in Glaucoma.

PubMed

Gardiner, Stuart K; Mansberger, Steven L; Demirel, Shaban

2017-05-01

Global analyses using mean deviation (MD) assess visual field progression, but can miss localized changes. Pointwise analyses are more sensitive to localized progression, but more variable so require confirmation. This study assessed whether cluster trend analysis, averaging information across subsets of locations, could improve progression detection. A total of 133 test-retest eyes were tested 7 to 10 times. Rates of change and P values were calculated for possible re-orderings of these series to generate global analysis ("MD worsening faster than x dB/y with P < y"), pointwise and cluster analyses ("n locations [or clusters] worsening faster than x dB/y with P < y") with specificity exactly 95%. These criteria were applied to 505 eyes tested over a mean of 10.5 years, to find how soon each detected "deterioration," and compared using survival models. This was repeated including two subsequent visual fields to determine whether "deterioration" was confirmed. The best global criterion detected deterioration in 25% of eyes in 5.0 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7-5.3 years), compared with 4.8 years (95% CI, 4.2-5.1) for the best cluster analysis criterion, and 4.1 years (95% CI, 4.0-4.5) for the best pointwise criterion. However, for pointwise analysis, only 38% of these changes were confirmed, compared with 61% for clusters and 76% for MD. The time until 25% of eyes showed subsequently confirmed deterioration was 6.3 years (95% CI, 6.0-7.2) for global, 6.3 years (95% CI, 6.0-7.0) for pointwise, and 6.0 years (95% CI, 5.3-6.6) for cluster analyses. Although the specificity is still suboptimal, cluster trend analysis detects subsequently confirmed deterioration sooner than either global or pointwise analyses.

Recent changes and drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; El Kenawy, Ahmed; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Peña-Gallardo, Marina; Beguería, Santiago; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel

2016-08-01

We analysed recent evolution and meteorological drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in the Canary Islands for the period 1961-2013. We employed long and high-quality time series of meteorological variables to analyse current AED changes in this region and found that AED has increased during the investigated period. Overall, the annual ETo, which was estimated by means of the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation, increased significantly by 18.2 mm decade-1 on average, with a stronger trend in summer (6.7 mm decade-1). In this study we analysed the contribution of (i) the aerodynamic (related to the water vapour that a parcel of air can store) and (ii) radiative (related to the available energy to evaporate a quantity of water) components to the decadal variability and trends of ETo. More than 90 % of the observed ETo variability at the seasonal and annual scales can be associated with the variability in the aerodynamic component. The variable that recorded more significant changes in the Canary Islands was relative humidity, and among the different meteorological factors used to calculate ETo, relative humidity was the main driver of the observed ETo trends. The observed trend could have negative consequences in a number of water-depending sectors if it continues in the future.

Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiss-Penzias, Peter S.; Gay, David A.; Brigham, Mark E.; Parsons, Matthew T.; Gustin, Mae S.; ter Shure, Arnout

2016-01-01

This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year− 1) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year− 1, not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

100 years of mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Australia: the role of tobacco consumption.

PubMed

Adair, T; Hoy, D; Dettrick, Z; Lopez, A D

2012-12-01

Global studies of the long-term association between tobacco consumption and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have relied upon descriptions of trends. To statistically analyse the relationship of tobacco consumption with data on mortality due to COPD over the past 100 years in Australia. Tobacco consumption was reconstructed back to 1887. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific smoking data and its relationship with COPD mortality. Age-standardised COPD mortality, although likely misclassified with other diseases, decreased for males and females from 1907 until the start of the Second World War in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Thereafter, COPD mortality rose sharply in line with trends in smoking, peaking in the early 1970s for males and over 20 years later for females, before falling again. Regression models revealed both cumulative and time-specific tobacco consumption to be strongly predictive of COPD mortality, with a time lag of 15 years for males and 20 years for females. Sharp falls in COPD mortality before the Second World War were unrelated to tobacco consumption. Smoking was the primary driver of post-War trends, and the success of anti-smoking campaigns has sharply reduced COPD mortality levels.

Temporal trends in self harm and aggression on a paediatric mental health ward.

PubMed

Berntsen, Ellen; Starling, Jean; Durheim, Earle; Hainsworth, Cassandra; de Kloet, Liselotte; Chapman, Lucy; Hancock, Karen

2011-02-01

The aim of this paper is to describe trends in aggression and self harm on a mental health inpatient unit for children and adolescents between January 2006 and August 2009. Various ward interventions and the ward milieu were evaluated as possible explanatory factors for trends. This was a retrospective study whereby incidents of aggression, self harm and seclusion were obtained from a computerized Incident Information Management System (IIMS) database. Trends in incidents were analysed using linear regression analyses. Over a 44-month period, 292 incidents of aggression and 139 incidents of self harm were reported. The use of seclusion and the number of aggressive incidents both significantly decreased over time. Trends suggested a positive relationship between the introduction of restraint training, changes in leadership and full staff complement, and a reduction in aggression and seclusion. Although the findings are limited by their retrospective nature and reliance on formal records, this study suggests that different factors can contribute to decrease the incidence of adverse events on a psychiatric ward. Future prospective research is needed to assess the effectiveness of different interventions in both the prevention and management of self harm, aggression and seclusion in child and adolescent inpatient units.

AV-USA 1971. Basic Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hope, Thomas W.

Sales analyses, market profiles, discussions of business trends and corporate structures, and a review of new products in the field of audiovisual aids are presented in this report, covering the time span from January 1970 to June 1971. (JY)

Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

Empirical Mode Decomposition and k-Nearest Embedding Vectors for Timely Analyses of Antibiotic Resistance Trends

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

2013-01-01

Background Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. Objective To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. Methods We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. Results The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. Conclusion The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends. PMID:23637796

Back to "once a caesarean: always a caesarean"? A trend analysis in Switzerland.

PubMed

Christmann-Schmid, Corina; Raio, Luigi; Scheibner, Katrin; Müller, Martin; Surbek, Daniel

2016-11-01

Caesarean sections (CS) have significantly increased worldwide and a previous CS is nowadays an important and increasingly reported indication to perform a repeat CS. There is a paucity of information in Switzerland on the incidence of repeat CS after previous CS and relationship between the rates of vaginal birth after CS (VBAC). The aim of this study was to analyse the actual trend in VBAC in Switzerland. We performed a retrospective cohort study to analyse the proportion of VBAC among all pregnant women with previous sections which give birth during two time periods (group 1:1998/1999 vs. group 2:2004/2005) in our tertiary care referral hospital and in the annual statistics of Swiss Women's Hospitals (ASF-Statistics). In addition, the proportion of induction of labour after a previous caesarean and its success was analysed. In both cohorts studied, we found a significant decrease of vaginal births (p < 0.05) and a significant increase of primary elective repeat caesarean section (p < 0.05) from the first to the second time period, while there was a decrease of secondary repeat caesarean sections. The prevalence of labour induction did not decrease. Our study shows that vaginal birth after a prior caesarean section has decreased over time in Switzerland. There was no significant change in labour induction during the study period. While this trend might reflect an increasing demand for safety in pregnancy and childbirth, it concomitantly increases maternal risks of further pregnancies, and women need to be appropriately informed about long-term risks.

Trends in NDVI and tundra community composition in the Arctic of NE Alaska between 1984 and 2009

Treesearch

Robert R. Pattison; Janet C. Jorgenson; Martha K. Raynolds; Jeffery M. Welker

2015-01-01

As Arctic ecosystems experience increases in surface air temperatures, plot-level analyses of tundra vegetation composition suggest that there are important changes occurring in tundra communities that are typified by increases in shrubs and declines in non-vascular species. At the same time analyses of NDVI indicate that the Arctic tundra is greening. Few studies have...

Socioeconomic inequalities in suicide mortality before and after the economic recession in Spain.

PubMed

Borrell, Carme; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Gotsens, Mercè; Calvo, Montse; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Bartoll, Xavier; Esnaola, Santiago

2017-10-04

An increase in suicide mortality is often observed in economic recessions. The objective of this study was to analyse trends in socioeconomic inequalities in suicide mortality before and during the economic recession in two geographical settings in Spain. This study analyses inequalities in mortality according to educational level during 3 different time periods based on individual data from the Basque Country and Barcelona city. We analysed suicide mortality data for all residents over 25 years of age from 2001 to 2012. Two periods before the crisis (2001-2004 and 2005-2008) and another during the crisis (2009-2012) were studied. We performed independent analyses for sex, age group, and for the two geographical settings. We fit Poisson regression models to study the relationship between educational level and mortality, and calculated the relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII) as comparative measures. For men in the Basque Country, all RII values for the three time periods were similar and almost all were greater than 2; in Barcelona the RII values were generally lower. The SII values for Barcelona tended to decrease over time, whereas in the Basque Country they showed a U-shaped pattern. Among women aged 25-44 years we found an association between educational level and suicide mortality during the first time period; however, we found no clear association for other age groups or time periods. This study within two geographical settings in Spain shows that trends in inequalities in suicide mortality according to educational level remained stable among men before and during the economic recession.

Disparities in dietary habits and physical activity in Denmark and trends from 1995 to 2008.

PubMed

Groth, Margit Velsing; Sørensen, Mette Rosenlund; Matthiessen, Jeppe; Fagt, Sisse; Landvad, Niels; Knudsen, Vibeke Kildegaard

2014-11-01

To examine social disparities in dietary-, alcohol- and leisure-time physical activity habits in Danish adults from 1995 to 2008 and to test the hypothesis of widening disparities. Four cross-sectional surveys of representative samples of the Danish population aged 20-75 years were analysed, a total of 7900 respondents. Dietary and alcohol habits were measured by a 7-day pre-coded food diary and physical activity and education by a face-to-face interview. Multivariate analyses were used to test associations between explanatory variables and response variables and the hypothesis of widening disparities. In all analyses, both diet quality and physical inactivity differed systematically with educational group and with healthier habits for the group with long education. Only for alcohol habits was an opposite social gradient seen. Disparities persisted over all time periods. The analyses using "The Concentration Index" did not change any of the conclusions. Gender also influenced diet quality. Men had dietary and alcohol habits furthest away from the guidelines. A trend of healthier habits was also found over the time period. Social disparities in diet quality and leisure-time physical activity were seen for all examined time periods and with no significant change therefore, there is no support to the hypothesis of widening social disparities in all educational groups some improvement of dietary habits was found, especially for those foods where comprehensive initiatives had taken place however, social disparities still exist there is an ongoing need to address these disparities in order to reduce social inequality in health. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Trends in popularity of some morphological traits of purebred dogs in Australia.

PubMed

Teng, Kendy T; McGreevy, Paul D; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Dhand, Navneet K

2016-01-01

The morphology of dogs can provide information about their predisposition to some disorders. For example, larger breeds are predisposed to hip dysplasia and many neoplastic diseases. Therefore, longitudinal trends in popularity of dog morphology can reveal potential disease pervasiveness in the future. There have been reports on the popularity of particular breeds and behavioural traits but trends in the morphological traits of preferred breeds have not been studied. This study investigated trends in the height, dog size and head shape (cephalic index) of Australian purebred dogs. One hundred eighty-one breeds derived from Australian National Kennel Council (ANKC) registration statistics from 1986 to 2013 were analysed. Weighted regression analyses were conducted to examine trends in the traits by using them as outcome variables, with year as the explanatory variable and numbers of registered dogs as weights. Linear regression investigated dog height and cephalic index (skull width/skull length), and multinomial logistic regression studied dog size. The total number of ANKC registration had decreased gradually from 95,792 in 1986 to 66,902 in 2013. Both weighted minimal height (p = 0.014) and weighted maximal height (p < 0.001) decreased significantly over time, and the weighted cephalic index increased significantly (p < 0.001). The odds of registration of medium and small breeds increased by 5.3 % and 4.2 %, respectively, relative to large breeds (p < 0.001) and by 12.1 % and 11.0 %, respectively, relative to giant breeds (p < 0.001) for each 5-year block of time. Compared to taller and larger breeds, shorter and smaller breeds have become relatively popular over time. Mean cephalic index has increased, which indicates that Australians have gradually favoured breeds with shorter and wider heads (brachycephalic). These significant trends indicate that the dog morphological traits reported here may potentially influence how people select companion dogs in Australia and provide valuable predictive information on the pervasiveness of diseases in dogs.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights and warm spell duration indices are characterised by a particular strong increment, if compared to the ones of the entire period. Finally, a cursory comparison between winter precipitation and NAO index was done, showing a high anti-correlation, especially since the second half of 20th century.

Antimicrobial resistance trends in Escherichia coli isolated from diseased food-producing animals in France: A 14-year period time-series study.

PubMed

Boireau, C; Morignat, É; Cazeau, G; Jarrige, N; Jouy, É; Haenni, M; Madec, J-Y; Leblond, A; Gay, É

2018-02-01

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among bacteria isolated from food-producing animals is a growing concern with implications for public health. AMR surveillance is essential to identify resistance trends and help in the design of effective and efficient control strategies. The aim of the study was to describe the antimicrobial susceptibility of pathogenic Escherichia coli isolated from three livestock productions in France (cattle, swine and poultry). The trend in resistance to the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in animal health was analysed as follows: amoxicillin (penicillin), spectinomycin or streptomycin (aminoglycoside), tetracycline and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole/Enrofloxacin and ceftiofur were also taken into account as members of critically important antimicrobial families in human and veterinary medicine, that is fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins, respectively. Data collected between 2002 and 2015 by the French national surveillance network of AMR referred to as RESAPATH were analysed. Resistance trends were investigated using non-linear analysis (generalized additive models) applied to time-series stratified by livestock production and antibiotic. Irrespective of the species and the antibiotic considered, resistance signals over time showed no significant annual cycle. Resistance to third-generation cephalosporins emerged during the period of the study, with a peak at 22% [20.5; 24.0] in poultry in 2010, decreasing afterwards, while it remained consistently below 10% for the other species. The proportion of resistance to fluoroquinolones was broadly similar between species and remained under 30%, with a slight decreasing trend after 2009. Resistances to tetracycline and amoxicillin remained high, between 90% and 40% over time in cattle and swine. After 2010, there was a decrease in resistance to these antibiotics for all species, especially to tetracycline for poultry with a drop from 84% in 2009 to 43% in 2015. These results contribute to risk assessment and constitute objective evidence on which to evaluate the efficacy of control measures implemented to limit AMR occurrence. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), p<0.0001) while rates among women decreased (EAPC=-0.01% (95% CI:-0.02 to -0.002), p=0.03). APC analysis revealed significant non-linear positive period and cohort effects in men, with higher effects among younger men (25-49 years). Non-significant increasing trends were observed in younger women (25-49 years). APC analyses from the Mumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheung, W.H.; Senay, G.B.; Singh, A.

2008-01-01

As a country whose economy is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends are often cited as one of the more important factors in explaining various socio-economic problems such as food insecurity. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were analysed at the watershed scale with data (1) from all available years, and (2) excluding years that lacked observations from at least 25% of the gauges. Similar analyses were also performed at the gauge, regional, and national levels. By regressing annual watershed rainfall on time, results from the one-sample t-test show no significant changes in rainfall for any of the watersheds examined. However, in our regressions of seasonal rainfall averages against time, we found a significant decline in June to September rainfall (i.e. Kiremt) for the Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe, Rift Valley, and Southern Blue Nile watersheds located in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. While the gauge level analysis showed that certain gauge stations experienced recent changes in rainfall, these trends are not necessarily reflected at the watershed or regional levels.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

PubMed

Remontet, Laurent; Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Iwaz, Jean; Belot, Aurélien; Danieli, Coraline; Charvat, Hadrien; Roche, Laurent

2018-01-01

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It thus calls for prudence in devising appropriate intervention in the planning and sustainable development of the basin water resources.

Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

PubMed

Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

2017-12-01

Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Spring (III)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of spring and its corresponding months (March, April, May) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal Tmax shows that global trend was positive and significant until the mid 80's with higher values than 75% from between 1954-2010 to 1979-2010, being reduced after to the north region. So, from 1985-2010 no significant trend have been detected. Monthly analyses show differences. March trend is not significant (<20% of area) since 1974-2010, while significant trend in April and May varies between 1961-2010/1979-2010 and 1965-2010/1980-2010 respectively, clearly located in northern midland and Mediterranean coastland. • Spring Tmin trend analyses is significantly (>20%) during all temporal windows, notwithstanding NW do not show global significant trend, and in the most recent temporal windows only affect significantly SE. Monthly analyses also differ. Not significant trend is detected in March from 1979-2010, and from 1985-2010 in May, being April the month in any temporal windows with more than 20% of land affected by significant trend. • Spatial differences are detected between windows (South-North in March, East-West in April-May. We can conclude Tmax trend varies accordingly temporal windows dramatically in spring and no significance has been detected in the recent decades. Northern areas and Mediterranean coastland seems to be the most affected. Monthy Tmax trend spatial analyses confirm the heterogeneity of diurnal temperatures; different spatial gradients in windows have been detected between months. Seasonal Tmin show a more global temporal pattern. Spatial gradients of significance between months have been detected, in some sense contraries to the observed in Tmax.

Can guild- or site-specific contrasts in trends or phenology explain the changed role of the Dutch Wadden Sea for fish?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulp, Ingrid; van der Veer, Henk W.; Walker, Paddy; van Walraven, Lodewijk; Bolle, Loes J.

2017-09-01

The Wadden Sea bordering the Dutch, German and Danish coast, is traditionally a region with important functions for many fish species: as a nursery area for juveniles (marine juveniles), as a feeding area, as a transit to and from fresh water, and resident species complete their whole life cycle there. Because of indications that the importance of the Dutch Wadden Sea has changed drastically for many species during the past decades, we analysed and classified trends of 24 common fish species in the last 45 years, which were assigned to 5 different ecological guilds. Trends were examined for three Wadden Sea regions and compared to trends in the adjacent two North Sea coastal regions. For these analyses we made a combined use of two longterm time series: an annual beamtrawl survey, the Demeral Fish Survey (DFS) with a high spatial but poor seasonal resolution and a fyke series with a high seasonal but poor spatial resolution. We investigated for which species the DFS survey was appropriate for trend analysis, and we evaluated whether a change in timing may contribute to patterns in DFS time trends. Total fish biomass showed a similar pattern in all tidal basins with an increase from 1970 to 1980, a peak in the mid-1980s and a strong decline from 1980 to 2000, with a subsequent stable trend. The pattern in the coastal region deviated especially in the past 10 years, with a further decline along the Dutch Wadden coast and an increase along the mainland coast. Most dramatic declines throughout the Wadden Sea occurred in species belonging to the marine juvenile guild, notably plaice, sole and dab. A declining trend in marine juveniles is on-going in the western part, while it recently stabilised or even increased in the central and eastern part and in the coastal regions. Resident species showed more variable trends in the Wadden Sea with less pronounced directions: both increases and decreases occurred. In the coastal regions, several resident species have increased considerably in the last 15 years, a pattern not observed in the Wadden Sea. Also the size structure of the fish community changed in all regions, with generally the strongest declines in the largest size classes. The combined use of the two surveys showed that for some species the DFS was not timed in the period of peak occurrence. Although the phenology of several species has changed, the DFS survey period still encompasses the peak period of most species.

Trends in adolescent mental health during economic upturns and downturns: a multilevel analysis of Swedish data 1988-2008

PubMed Central

Kim, Yunhwan; Hagquist, Curt

2018-01-01

Background A long-term trend of increasing mental health problems among adolescents in many Western countries indicates a great need to investigate if and how societal changes have contributed to the reported increase. Using seven waves of repeated cross-sectional data collected between 1988 and 2008 in Sweden, the current study examined if economic factors at the societal level (municipality unemployment rate) and at the individual level (worry about family finances), and their interaction could explain a secular trend in mental health problems. Methods Participants were 17 533 students of age 15–16 years (49.3% girls), from 14 municipalities in a county of Sweden. Data on adolescents’ mental health (psychosomatic problems) and worry about family finances were obtained using a self-report questionnaire. A series of multilevel regression analyses were conducted in order to explain the trends in adolescents’ mental health. Results The results indicated that the individual-level predictor (worry about family finances) significantly explained the increasing rates of adolescents’ psychosomatic problems. This was particularly the case during the mid-1990s, which was characterised by a severe recession in Sweden with high unemployment rates. For example, after accounting for adolescents’ worry, a significant increase in psychosomatic symptoms between 1988 and 1998 among girls (b=0.112, P<0.05) disappeared (b=0.018, P>0.05) and a non-significant decrease between 1988 and 1995 among boys (b=−0.017, P>0.05) became significant (b=−0.142, P<0.05). Neither municipality unemployment rate nor its interaction with adolescents’ worry explained psychosomatic problems. Conclusions The findings demonstrate the effects of adolescents’ worry about family finances on a secular trend in mental health problems during an economically bleak period of time. The study highlights the need for repeated measurements including a large number of time points over a long time period in order to analyse time-specific putative explanatory factors for trends in adolescent mental health problems. PMID:29203524

Prevalence and Trends in Domestic Violence in South Korea: Findings From National Surveys.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Yop; Oh, Sehun; Nam, Seok In

2016-05-01

To examine trends in the prevalence of domestic violence since 1997, 1 year prior to the introduction of legislative countermeasures and accompanying services in South Korea, and to analyze what socio-demographic characteristics of perpetrators contribute to spousal violence and whether there were any changes in risk factors over time. This study used two sets of nationally representative household samples: married or cohabiting couples of 1,540 from the 1999 national survey and 3,269 from the 2010 National Survey of Domestic Violence. Frequency analysis was used to measure the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV), and cross-tabulation, correlation, and logistic regression analyses were used to look for socio-demographic risk factors of spousal physical violence and patterns of change over time. The frequency analysis showed that the IPV prevalence dropped by approximately 50%, from 34.1% in 1999 to 16.5% in 2010, though it was still higher than many other countries. The cross-tabulation and logistic regression analyses suggested that men with low socio-demographic characteristics were generally more violent, though this tendency did not apply to women. Instead, younger women seemed to be more violent than older women. Last, different levels of household income were associated with different levels of IPV in 2010, but no linear trend was detected. In this study, IPV prevalence trends and risk factors of two different time periods were discussed to provide implications for tackling the IPV problem. Future countermeasures must build on understanding about men with low socio-demographic status and younger women, who were more violent in marital relationships. © The Author(s) 2015.

Cancer Statistics Animator

Cancer.gov

This tool allows users to animate cancer trends over time by cancer site and cause of death, race, and sex. Provides access to incidence, mortality, and survival. Select the type of statistic, variables, format, and then extract the statistics in a delimited format for further analyses.

Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in Pacific Northwest mountain streams

Treesearch

Patrick R. Kormos; Charlie Luce; Seth J. Wenger; Wouter R. Berghuijs

2016-01-01

Path analyses of historical streamflow data from the Pacific Northwest indicate that the precipitation amount has been the dominant control on the magnitude of low streamflow extremes compared to the air temperature-affected timing of snowmelt runoff. The relative sensitivities of low streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes have important...

Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.

2010-01-01

Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978-2007 water years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2-3 weeks over the 29-yr study period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. RKT analyses also indicated that November-May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9 degrees C decade-1, while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade-1, respectively. Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff toward earlier in the year.

Trend analyses with river sediment rating curves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warrick, Jonathan A.

2015-01-01

Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies it is assumed that rating curves have a power-law form (i.e., C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) How well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data? (ii) Are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers, but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge-normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply, or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time-dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations, and sediment discharge.

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, O. R.; Parrish, D. D.; Ziemke, J.; Cupeiro, M.; Galbally, I. E.; Gilge, S.; Horowitz, L.; Jensen, N. R.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.;

Use of seasonal trend decomposition to understand groundwater behaviour in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer, Eden Valley, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafare, Antoine E. A.; Peach, Denis W.; Hughes, Andrew G.

2016-02-01

The daily groundwater level (GWL) response in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifers in the Eden Valley, England (UK), has been studied using the seasonal trend decomposition by LOESS (STL) technique. The hydrographs from 18 boreholes in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone were decomposed into three components: seasonality, general trend and remainder. The decomposition was analysed first visually, then using tools involving a variance ratio, time-series hierarchical clustering and correlation analysis. Differences and similarities in decomposition pattern were explained using the physical and hydrogeological information associated with each borehole. The Penrith Sandstone exhibits vertical and horizontal heterogeneity, whereas the more homogeneous St Bees Sandstone groundwater hydrographs characterize a well-identified seasonality; however, exceptions can be identified. A stronger trend component is obtained in the silicified parts of the northern Penrith Sandstone, while the southern Penrith, containing Brockram (breccias) Formation, shows a greater relative variability of the seasonal component. Other boreholes drilled as shallow/deep pairs show differences in responses, revealing the potential vertical heterogeneities within the Penrith Sandstone. The differences in bedrock characteristics between and within the Penrith and St Bees Sandstone formations appear to influence the GWL response. The de-seasonalized and de-trended GWL time series were then used to characterize the response, for example in terms of memory effect (autocorrelation analysis). By applying the STL method, it is possible to analyse GWL hydrographs leading to better conceptual understanding of the groundwater flow. Thus, variation in groundwater response can be used to gain insight into the aquifer physical properties and understand differences in groundwater behaviour.

Variation in formulary adherence in general practice over time (2003-2007).

PubMed

van Dijk, Liset; de Jong, Judith D; Westert, Gert P; de Bakker, Dinny H

2011-12-01

To study trends and variation in adherence to the main national formulary for the 20 most prevalent health problems in Dutch general practice over a 5-year period (2003-07). Routine electronic medical records from a pool of 115 representative general practices were linked to the main national formulary. Analyses included over 2 million prescriptions for 246 391 patients. The outcome variable was whether or not the prescribed medication was congruent with recommendations in the national formulary. Trends and variation were analysed using three-level multilevel logistic regression analyses (general practice, patient, and prescription). The percentage of formulary adherent prescriptions for the 20 most prevalent health problems was 73-76% between 2003 and 2007. The percentage varied considerably between guidelines. Lowest adherence rates were found for acute bronchitis and acute upper respiratory infection. Interpractice variation was constant over time. General practice information networks are useful for monitoring general patterns of formulary on a year-to-year basis. Formulary adherence is stable over time but varies across diagnoses, patients and general practices. In the past decade, efforts have been made to increase the level of formulary adherent prescribing. These general efforts managed to stabilize (variation in) adherence in a field where many other initiatives (e.g. by pharmaceutical companies) are undertaken to influence prescribing behaviour.

Latent Growth Modeling of nursing care dependency of acute neurological inpatients.

PubMed

Piredda, M; Ghezzi, V; De Marinis, M G; Palese, A

2015-01-01

Longitudinal three-time point study, addressing how neurological adult patient care dependency varies from the admission time to the 3rd day of acute hospitalization. Nursing care dependency was measured with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS) and a Latent Growth Modeling approach was used to analyse the CDS trend in 124 neurosurgical and stroke inpatients. Care dependence followed a decreasing linear trend. Results can help nurse-managers planning an appropriate amount of nursing care for acute neurological patients during their initial stage of hospitalization. Further studies are needed aimed at investigating the determinants of nursing care dependence during the entire in-hospital stay.

Temporal trends of contaminants in Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) from a small lake, southwest Greenland during a warming climate.

PubMed

Rigét, Frank; Vorkamp, Katrin; Muir, Derek

2010-12-01

Hg and legacy POPs were analysed in muscle tissue of a landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) population from a small lake in southwest Greenland. Hg concentrations were available for six years and OC concentrations for five years during the period 1994 to 2008. For two years, stable isotope values of nitrogen (δ(15)N) were analysed in muscle tissue in order to infer trophic effects. Hg, Σ10-PCB, ΣDDT and trans-nonachlor concentrations (OC on wet weight basis) showed an increase with increasing fish length, which had to be accounted for when assessing temporal trends. δ(15)N values had a narrow range, and there was no indication of increasing δ(15)N values with char length confirming the sampled char did not vary in trophic morphs as often seen in Arctic lakes. Length-adjusted Hg concentrations showed a significantly increasing trend during the period 1994 to 2008, while Σ10-PCB, ΣDDT, ΣHCH and trans-nonachlor showed a significantly decreasing trend when expressed on wet weight, and decreasing but not significantly when expressed on lipid weight. The reason for this was that the lipid content of muscle showed a significantly decreasing trend with time. The sum of mean monthly air temperature during May to August measured at a nearby meteorological station showed an increasing trend during the study period, and changing temperature conditions probably influenced the temporal trend of especially Hg concentrations and the lipid content.

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993–2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country’s geographic regions. Methods The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Results The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. Conclusions At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio-demographic segments, including worsening levels of malnutrition. This paper shows the importance of disaggregated analyses of national child malnutrition data, to unmask underlying geographic and socio-demographic differences. PMID:24131558

Analyses of GIMMS NDVI Time Series in Kogi State, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palka, Jessica; Wessollek, Christine; Karrasch, Pierre

2017-10-01

The value of remote sensing data is particularly evident where an areal monitoring is needed to provide information on the earth's surface development. The use of temporal high resolution time series data allows for detecting short-term changes. In Kogi State in Nigeria different vegetation types can be found. As the major population in this region is living in rural communities with crop farming the existing vegetation is slowly being altered. The expansion of agricultural land causes loss of natural vegetation, especially in the regions close to the rivers which are suitable for crop production. With regard to these facts, two questions can be dealt with covering different aspects of the development of vegetation in the Kogi state, the determination and evaluation of the general development of the vegetation in the study area (trend estimation) and analyses on a short-term behavior of vegetation conditions, which can provide information about seasonal effects in vegetation development. For this purpose, the GIMMS-NDVI data set, provided by the NOAA, provides information on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a geometric resolution of approx. 8 km. The temporal resolution of 15 days allows the already described analyses. For the presented analysis data for the period 1981-2012 (31 years) were used. The implemented workflow mainly applies methods of time series analysis. The results show that in addition to the classical seasonal development, artefacts of different vegetation periods (several NDVI maxima) can be found in the data. The trend component of the time series shows a consistently positive development in the entire study area considering the full investigation period of 31 years. However, the results also show that this development has not been continuous and a simple linear modeling of the NDVI increase is only possible to a limited extent. For this reason, the trend modeling was extended by procedures for detecting structural breaks in the time series.

Methods for evaluating temporal trends in noise exposure

PubMed Central

Neitzel, RL; Galusha, D; Dixon-Ernst, C; Rabinowitz, PM

2014-01-01

Objective Hearing conservation programs have been mandatory in many US industries since 1983. Since then, three program elements (audiometric testing, hearing protection, and training) have been the focus of much research. By comparison, little has been done on noise exposure evaluation. Design and study sample Utilizing a large dataset (>10,000 measurements over 20 years) from eight facilities operated by a multinational aluminum manufacturing company, we evaluated several approaches to assessing temporal trends in Time Weighted Average (TWA) exposures and the fraction of measurements exceeding 85 dBA by facility, by exposure group within facility, and by individual worker within facility. Results Overall, exposures declined across locations over the study period. Several facilities demonstrated substantial reductions in exposure, and the results of mean noise levels and exceedance fractions generally showed good agreement. The results of analyses at the individual level diverged with analyses by facility and exposure group within facility, suggesting that individual-level analyses, while challenging, may provide important information not available from coarser levels of analysis. Conclusions Validated metrics are needed to allow for assessment of temporal trends in noise exposure. Such metrics will improve our ability to characterize, in a standardized manner, efforts to reduce noise-induced hearing loss. PMID:24564696

Methods for evaluating temporal trends in noise exposure.

PubMed

Neitzel, R L; Galusha, D; Dixon-Ernst, C; Rabinowitz, P M

2014-03-01

Hearing conservation programs have been mandatory in many US industries since 1983. Since then, three program elements (audiometric testing, hearing protection, and training) have been the focus of much research. By comparison, little has been done on noise exposure evaluation. Temporal trends in time weighted average (TWA) exposures and the fraction of measurements exceeding 85 dBA were evaluated by facility, by exposure group within facility, and by individual worker within facility. A large dataset (> 10 000 measurements over 20 years) from eight facilities operated by a multinational aluminum manufacturing company was studied. Overall, exposures declined across locations over the study period. Several facilities demonstrated substantial reductions in exposure, and the results of mean noise levels and exceedance fractions generally showed good agreement. The results of analyses at the individual level diverged with analyses by facility and exposure group within facility, suggesting that individual-level analyses, while challenging, may provide important information not available from coarser levels of analysis. Validated metrics are needed to allow for assessment of temporal trends in noise exposure. Such metrics will improve our ability to characterize, in a standardized manner, efforts to reduce noise-induced hearing loss.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Autumn (V)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez HIgaldo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, MIchele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of autumn and its corresponding months (September, October, November) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal trend analyses of Autumn Tmax show no significance at any temporal Windows. Trends of Tmin are significant in more than 20% of land until 1974-2010. The area affected in Tmin progressively increase from SE to NW. • Monthly trend analyses not detect any significance in Tmax, while in Tmin, particularly in October, an extended area is detected in temporal windows in between 1951-2010 to 1978-2010, but clearly concentrated in the starting years of initial 70´s. Spatial pattern of areas affected significantly seems to be from SE to NW for October, and South-North in September. To conclude autumn trend analyses of Tmax and Tmin in Spanish mainland only detect significant trend in Tmin, mostly located in the 70´s and extending from SE to central areas of study area.

Calibration Uncertainty in Ocean Color Satellite Sensors and Trends in Long-term Environmental Records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turpie, Kevin R.; Eplee, Robert E., Jr.; Franz, Bryan A.; Del Castillo, Carlos

2014-01-01

Launched in late 2011, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft is being evaluated by NASA to determine whether this sensor can continue the ocean color data record established through the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). To this end, Goddard Space Flight Center generated evaluation ocean color data products using calibration techniques and algorithms established by NASA during the SeaWiFS and MODIS missions. The calibration trending was subjected to some initial sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Here we present an introductory assessment of how the NASA-produced time series of ocean color is influenced by uncertainty in trending instrument response over time. The results help quantify the uncertainty in measuring regional and global biospheric trends in the ocean using satellite remote sensing, which better define the roles of such records in climate research.

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

Spatial and temporal patterns in preterm birth in the United States.

PubMed

Byrnes, John; Mahoney, Richard; Quaintance, Cele; Gould, Jeffrey B; Carmichael, Suzan; Shaw, Gary M; Showen, Amy; Phibbs, Ciaran; Stevenson, David K; Wise, Paul H

2015-06-01

Despite years of research, the etiologies of preterm birth remain unclear. In order to help generate new research hypotheses, this study explored spatial and temporal patterns of preterm birth in a large, total-population dataset. Data on 145 million US births in 3,000 counties from the Natality Files of the National Center for Health Statistics for 1971-2011 were examined. State trends in early (<34 wk) and late (34-36 wk) preterm birth rates were compared. K-means cluster analyses were conducted to identify gestational age distribution patterns for all US counties over time. A weak association was observed between state trends in <34 wk birth rates and the initial absolute <34 wk birth rate. Significant associations were observed between trends in <34 wk and 34-36 wk birth rates and between white and African American <34 wk births. Periodicity was observed in county-level trends in <34 wk birth rates. Cluster analyses identified periods of significant heterogeneity and homogeneity in gestational age distributional trends for US counties. The observed geographic and temporal patterns suggest periodicity and complex, shared influences among preterm birth rates in the United States. These patterns could provide insight into promising hypotheses for further research.

Unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in the OECD, 1990–2009

PubMed Central

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watkins, Johnathan; Taylor, Abigail; Williams, Callum; Ali, Raghib; Zeltner, Thomas; Atun, Rifat

2015-01-01

The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment in many countries. Insights into the impact of unemployment on specific health conditions remain limited. We determined the association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We used multivariate regression analysis to assess the association between changes in unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in OECD member states between 1990 and 2009. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure, population structure, and population size were controlled for and lag analyses conducted. Several robustness checks were also performed. Time trend analyses were used to predict the number of excess deaths from prostate cancer following the 2008 global recession. Between 1990 and 2009, a 1% rise in unemployment was associated with an increase in prostate cancer mortality. Lag analysis showed a continued increase in mortality years after unemployment rises. The association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality remained significant in robustness checks with 46 controls. Eight of the 21 OECD countries for which a time trend analysis was conducted, exhibited an estimated excess of prostate cancer deaths in at least one of 2008, 2009, or 2010, based on 2000–2007 trends. Rises in unemployment are associated with significant increases in prostate cancer mortality. Initiatives that bolster employment may help to minimise prostate cancer mortality during times of economic hardship. PMID:26045715

Unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in the OECD, 1990-2009.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watkins, Johnathan; Taylor, Abigail; Williams, Callum; Ali, Raghib; Zeltner, Thomas; Atun, Rifat

2015-01-01

The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment in many countries. Insights into the impact of unemployment on specific health conditions remain limited. We determined the association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We used multivariate regression analysis to assess the association between changes in unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in OECD member states between 1990 and 2009. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure, population structure, and population size were controlled for and lag analyses conducted. Several robustness checks were also performed. Time trend analyses were used to predict the number of excess deaths from prostate cancer following the 2008 global recession. Between 1990 and 2009, a 1% rise in unemployment was associated with an increase in prostate cancer mortality. Lag analysis showed a continued increase in mortality years after unemployment rises. The association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality remained significant in robustness checks with 46 controls. Eight of the 21 OECD countries for which a time trend analysis was conducted, exhibited an estimated excess of prostate cancer deaths in at least one of 2008, 2009, or 2010, based on 2000-2007 trends. Rises in unemployment are associated with significant increases in prostate cancer mortality. Initiatives that bolster employment may help to minimise prostate cancer mortality during times of economic hardship.

Trends in antibiotic resistance over time among pathogens from Canadian hospitals: results of the CANWARD study 2007-11.

PubMed

Lagacé-Wiens, Philippe R S; Adam, Heather J; Low, Donald E; Blondeau, Joseph M; Baxter, Melanie R; Denisuik, Andrew J; Nichol, Kimberly A; Walkty, Andrew; Karlowsky, James A; Mulvey, Michael R; Hoban, Daryl J; Zhanel, George G

2013-05-01

Antimicrobial resistance patterns change over time and longitudinal surveillance studies provide insight into these trends. We sought to describe the important trends in antimicrobial resistance in key pathogens across Canada to provide useful information to clinicians, policy makers and industry, to assist in optimizing antimicrobial therapy, formulary choices and drug development. We analysed longitudinal data from the CANWARD study using a multivariate regression model to control for possible effects of patient demographics on resistance, in order to assess the impact of time on antimicrobial resistance independent of other measured variables. We identified several key trends in common pathogens. In particular, we observed a statistically significant increase in the proportion of Escherichia coli isolates that were resistant to extended-spectrum cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones, an increase in the proportion of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates that were resistant to extended-spectrum cephalosporins, a reduction in the proportion of Staphylococcus aureus that were methicillin, clindamycin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole resistant, and a reduction in the proportion of Pseudomonas aeruginosa that were fluoroquinolone and gentamicin resistant. Although some of these trends, such as the dramatic increase in fluoroquinolone and cephalosporin resistance in E. coli, can be attributed to the emergence and global spread of resistant clones (e.g. ST131 E. coli), others remain unexplained. However, recognizing these trends remains important to guide changes in empirical antimicrobial therapy and drug development.

Generational analysis of trends in unprotected sex in France among men who have sex with men: The major role of context-driven evolving patterns.

PubMed

Méthy, Nicolas; Meyer, Laurence; Bajos, Nathalie; Velter, Annie

2017-01-01

Using a generational approach, this study analyses how unprotected anal intercourse has evolved since 1991 in France across different generations of men who have sex with men (MSM) whose sexual lives began at different periods in the history of the HIV epidemic. Data were collected from 18-59 year-old respondents to the French Gay Press surveys Enquêtes Presse Gay, conducted repeatedly between 1991 and 2011 (N = 32,196) using self-administered questionnaires distributed in gay magazines and over the internet. Trends in unprotected anal intercourse (i.e. condomless anal sex) with casual partners of unknown or different HIV serostatus (hereafter "UAId" in this manuscript) were studied. Responses were analysed according to year and then reorganised for age-cohort analyses by generation, based on the year respondents turned 18. UAId rates fell from 1991 to 1997, and then rose from 13.4% in 1997 to 25.5% in 2011 among seronegative respondents, and from 24.8% to 63.3%, respectively, among seropositive respondents. Both in seropositive and seronegative respondents, UAId increased over time for all generations, indicative of a strong period effect. Analyses of data from several generations of MSM who started their sexual lives at different time points in the HIV epidemic, revealed very similar trends in UAId between generations, among both seropositive and seronegative respondents. This strong period effect suggests that sexual behaviours in MSM are influenced more by contextual than generational factors. The fact that prevention practices are simultaneously observed in different generations and that there are most likely underlying prevention norms among MSM, suggests that PrEP could become widely accepted by all generations of MSM exposed to the risk of HIV.

Shinguards effective in preventing lower leg injuries in football: Population-based trend analyses over 25 years.

PubMed

Vriend, Ingrid; Valkenberg, Huib; Schoots, Wim; Goudswaard, Gert Jan; van der Meulen, Wout J; Backx, Frank J G

2015-09-01

The majority of football injuries are caused by trauma to the lower extremities. Shinguards are considered an important measure in preventing lower leg impact abrasions, contusions and fractures. Given these benefits, Fédération Internationale de Football Association introduced the shinguard law in 1990, which made wearing shinguards during matches mandatory. This study evaluated the effect of the introduction of the shinguard law for amateur players in the Netherlands in the 1999/2000-football season on the incidence of lower leg injuries. Time trend analyses on injury data covering 25 years of continuous registration (1986-2010). Data were retrieved from a system that records all emergency department treatments in a random, representative sample of Dutch hospitals. All injuries sustained in football by patients aged 6-65 years were included, except for injuries of the Achilles tendon and Weber fractures. Time trends were analysed with multiple regression analyses; a model was fitted consisting of multiple straight lines, each representing a 5-year period. Patients were predominantly males (92%) and treated for fractures (48%) or abrasions/contusions (52%) to the lower leg. The incidence of lower leg football injuries decreased significantly following the introduction of the shinguard law (1996-2000: -20%; 2001-2005: -25%), whereas the incidence of all other football injuries did not. This effect was more prominent at weekends/match days. No gender differences were found. The results significantly show a preventive effect of the shinguard law underlining the relevance of rule changes as a preventive measure and wearing shinguards during both matches and training sessions. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence and survival trends of lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England

PubMed Central

Ekrikpo, U; Lyne, O; Wiseberg, J

2015-01-01

Background Oral cavity cancers are on the increase in the UK. Understanding site-specific epidemiological trends is important for cancer control measures. This study demonstrates the changing epidemiological trends in lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England from 1987 to 2006. Aim: Methods This was a retrospective study using anonymised data obtained from the Thames Cancer Registry (TCR) London. Data were analysed using SPSS v.17 and survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Age standardisation of the incidence rates was performed. It was conducted in south-east England, which has an average population of 12 million. The study analysed 9,318 cases (ICD-10 code C00–C06, C14). Kent Research Ethics Committee UK granted ethical approval. Results Oral cancers were more common in men, with male: female ratio of 1.6:1. Tongue cancers had the highest frequency at 3,088 (33.1%). Incidence varied with each cancer type. Mean incidence (per 1,000,000) ranged from 2.3 (lip cancer) to 13.8 (tongue cancer). There has been a statistically significant increase in incidence for cancers of the tongue base, other parts of tongue, gum and palate (p<0.001). Median survival time varied by sub-site, with lip cancer having the best median survival time (11.09 years) compared with tongue base cancer (2.42 years). Survival analyses showed worse prognosis for men, older age at diagnosis, and presence of synchronous tumours (p<0.001). Conclusion There is a rising incidence of tongue and tongue base, gum and palate cancers in south-east England with wide variability in survival. Oral cancer awareness and screening programmes should be encouraged. PMID:26263810

Incidence and survival trends of lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England.

PubMed

Olaleye, O; Ekrikpo, U; Lyne, O; Wiseberg, J

2015-04-01

Oral cavity cancers are on the increase in the UK. Understanding site-specific epidemiological trends is important for cancer control measures. This study demonstrates the changing epidemiological trends in lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England from 1987 to 2006. This was a retrospective study using anonymised data obtained from the Thames Cancer Registry (TCR) London. Data were analysed using SPSS v.17 and survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Age standardisation of the incidence rates was performed. It was conducted in south-east England, which has an average population of 12 million. The study analysed 9,318 cases (ICD-10 code C00-C06, C14). Kent Research Ethics Committee UK granted ethical approval. Oral cancers were more common in men, with male: female ratio of 1.6:1. Tongue cancers had the highest frequency at 3,088 (33.1%). Incidence varied with each cancer type. Mean incidence (per 1,000,000) ranged from 2.3 (lip cancer) to 13.8 (tongue cancer). There has been a statistically significant increase in incidence for cancers of the tongue base, other parts of tongue, gum and palate (p<0.001). Median survival time varied by sub-site, with lip cancer having the best median survival time (11.09 years) compared with tongue base cancer (2.42 years). Survival analyses showed worse prognosis for men, older age at diagnosis, and presence of synchronous tumours (p<0.001). There is a rising incidence of tongue and tongue base, gum and palate cancers in south-east England with wide variability in survival. Oral cancer awareness and screening programmes should be encouraged.

Seasonal to Interannual Surface Ocean Salinity Trends With Aquarius Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagerloef, G. S. E.; Kao, H. Y.; Carey, D.

2017-12-01

An important scientific goal for satellite salinity observations is to document oceanic climate trends and their link to changes in the water cycle. This study is a re-examination of seasonal to interannual sea surface salinity (SSS) variations from more recent analyses of V5.0 reprocessing of the Aquarius satellite data, Sep 2011 to May 2015. Sensor calibration over these time scales has been a concern, and the V5.0 includes improved calibration reference data compared to previous versions, which will be explained. Orthogonal mode analyses show that the annual cycle dominates the variability, and is strongest in the tropics. Interannual trends indicate the principal salinity patterns during onset of the 2015-16 El Niño. Recognizing that the Aquarius data record is now finite (Sep 2011 through May 2015) due to the mission failure in early June 2015, we will conclude with a status summary of the disposition of the Aquarius data and the prospects for continuing satellite salinity measurements.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count frequency also improved precision. These results suggest that the current distribution of count timings available in lek count databases such as that of Wyoming (conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise) can be used to estimate sage-grouse population trends without reducing precision or accuracy relative to trends from counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. However, only 10% of all Wyoming counts in our sample (1995−2014) were conducted 61−90 minutes after sunrise, and further increasing this percentage may still bias trend estimates because of declining lek attendance. 

Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

2009-01-01

Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among stations. Flow-adjustment procedures were used with these techniques at all stations to remove the effects of streamflow on water-quality variability. Flow adjustments were used for all constituents, except temperature. A decreasing trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent; whereas, an increasing trend indicates an increase in concentration and potential degradation in water quality. Trend results varied statewide by station and by physical property and water-quality constituent. The results for all stations and all physical properties and water-quality constituents examined had at least one statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increasing or decreasing trend during the specified period of record. Water temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen had no significant decreasing trends at any station. Water temperature had one significant increasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. Specific conductance and concentrations of hardness had one significant decreasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. pH also had a significant decreasing trend at the Mud River near Gus station. Concentrations of total suspended solids had 1 increasing trend at the Kentucky River at High Bridge station and 10 decreasing trends with 5 of those stations located in the Cumberland River Basin. Major ions analyzed for trends included chloride and sulfate. Concentrations of chloride at the 37 stations had increasing trends at 15 stations, decreasing trends at 3 stations, and no significant trend in concentration over time at 19 stations. Most of the increasing trends in concentrations of chloride are located in the northern part of Kentucky, possibly indicating an increase in the use of road salts for road deicing and (or) the result of resource extraction (oil, gas, and coal). Increasing trends of sulfate concentrations were detected at seven stations, all located in the Appalachian

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

PubMed Central

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

PubMed

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series.

PubMed

Kerzenmacher, Tobias E; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain; Chanin, Marie-Lise

2006-07-01

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.

Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.; Degenstein, D.; Froidevaux, L.; Thompson, A. M.

2014-01-01

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Summer (IV)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of summer and its corresponding months (June, July, August) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Tmax and Tmin seasonal trends affected mostly all the Spanish mainland, while the area affected decrease from 1983-2010 (Tmax) and 1987-2010 (Tmin). In both cases the areas affected significantly in recent decades are restricted to Eastern-coastland areas. • Monthly analyses show highly differences between Tmax and Tmin. Only June Tmax show significant trend in extended areas, and in fact from 70´s they are restricted to eastern coastland. Meanwhile both July and August Tmax trend affect particularly that area until mid 70´s. • Monthly trend analyses of Tmin show different patterns both in temporal windows and spatial distribution. Significant trend in June dominates practically all windows, while in July and August they predominate in south and eastern-Mediterranean coastland. No significant trend has been observed from middle of the 80´s (< 20% of area). In conclusion, summer trend analyses of Tmax and Tmin and their spatial distribution show clearly highly differences. In Tmax seasonal trend seems to be dominated by June Tmax behavior, while in Tmin the contribution of July and August must be considered particularly in southern and eastern-Mediterranean coastland. The most recent decades in Tmax and Tmin do not show significance, except in June Tmin.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; McHale, M. R.; Kolian, M. J.; Renard, B.

2017-04-01

Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2 days (1.1 days/decade) and 8.6 days (1.6 days/decade) for 1940-2014 and 1960-2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation (<1600 m) basins in the West, predominantly located in the Northwest, had median earlier WSCVD by 6.8 days (1940-2014, 0.9 days/decade) and 3.4 days (1960-2014, 0.6 days/decade). Streamflow timing at high-elevation (⩾1600 m) basins in the West had median earlier WSCVD by 4.0 days (1940-2014, 0.5 days/decade) and 5.2 days (1960-2014, 0.9 days/decade). Trends toward earlier WSCVD in the Northwest were not statistically significant, differing from previous studies that observed many large and (or) significant trends in this region. Much of this difference is likely due to the sensitivity of trend tests to the time period being tested, as well as differences in the streamflow timing metrics used among the studies. Mean February-May air temperature was significantly correlated with WSCVD at 100 percent of the study gages (field significant, p < 0.0001), demonstrating the sensitivity of WSCVD to air temperature across snowmelt dominated basins in the U.S. WSCVD in high elevation basins in the West, however, was related to both air temperature and precipitation yielding earlier snowmelt-related streamflow timing under warmer and drier conditions.

Evaluating the Brazilian zero tolerance drinking and driving law: Time series analyses of traffic-related mortality in three major cities.

PubMed

Volpe, Fernando Madalena; Ladeira, Roberto Marini; Fantoni, Rosely

2017-05-19

A zero tolerance alcohol restriction law was adopted in Brazil in 2008. In order to assess the effectiveness of this intervention, the present study compares specific mortality in 2 time series: 1980-2007 and 2008-2013. Data on mortality and population were gathered from official Brazilian Ministry of Health information systems. Segmented regression analyses were carried out separately for 3 major Brazilian capitals: Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo. In 2 cities (Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro) there were no significant changes in mortality rate trends in 2 periods, 1980 to 2007 and 2008 to 2013, where the observed rates did not differ significantly from predicted rates. In São Paulo, a decreasing trend until 2007 unexpectedly assumed higher levels after implementation of the law. There is no evidence of reduced traffic-related mortality in the 3 major Brazilian capitals 5.5 years after the zero tolerance drinking and driving law was adopted.

Tipping point analysis of ocean acoustic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livina, Valerie N.; Brouwer, Albert; Harris, Peter; Wang, Lian; Sotirakopoulos, Kostas; Robinson, Stephen

2018-02-01

We apply tipping point analysis to a large record of ocean acoustic data to identify the main components of the acoustic dynamical system and study possible bifurcations and transitions of the system. The analysis is based on a statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the data using time-series techniques. We analyse long-term and seasonal trends, system states and acoustic fluctuations to reconstruct a one-dimensional stochastic equation to approximate the acoustic dynamical system. We apply potential analysis to acoustic fluctuations and detect several changes in the system states in the past 14 years. These are most likely caused by climatic phenomena. We analyse trends in sound pressure level within different frequency bands and hypothesize a possible anthropogenic impact on the acoustic environment. The tipping point analysis framework provides insight into the structure of the acoustic data and helps identify its dynamic phenomena, correctly reproducing the probability distribution and scaling properties (power-law correlations) of the time series.

Enhanced Component Performance Study. Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schroeder, John Alton

2014-11-01

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2013 and maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data using Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2013. The objective is to present an analysis of factors that could influence the system and component trends in addition to annual performance trends of failure rates and probabilities. The factors analyzed for the EDG component are the differences in failuresmore » between all demands and actual unplanned engineered safety feature (ESF) demands, differences among manufacturers, and differences among EDG ratings. Statistical analyses of these differences are performed and results showing whether pooling is acceptable across these factors. In addition, engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating.« less

Statistical analyses of the results of 25 years of beach litter surveys on the south-eastern North Sea coast.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; Clemens, Thomas; Förster, Harald; Harder, Thorsten; Fleet, David; Gaus, Silvia; Grave, Christel; Flegel, Imme; Schrey, Eckart; Hartwig, Eike

2015-08-01

In the North Sea, the amount of litter present in the marine environment represents a severe environmental problem. In order to assess the magnitude of the problem and measure changes in abundance, the results of two beach litter monitoring programmes were compared and analysed for long-term trends applying multivariate techniques. Total beach litter pollution was persistently high. Spatial differences in litter abundance made it difficult to identify long-term trends: Partly more than 8000 litter items year(-1) were recorded on a 100 m long survey site on the island of Scharhörn, while the survey site on the beach on the island of Amrum revealed abundances lower by two orders of magnitude. Beach litter was dominated by plastic with mean proportions of 52%-91% of total beach litter. Non-parametric time series analyses detected many significant trends, which, however, did not show any systematic spatial patterns. Cluster analyses partly led to groupings of beaches according to their expositions to sources of litter, wind and currents. Surveys in short intervals of one to two weeks were found to give higher annual sums of beach litter than the quarterly surveys of the OSPAR method. Surveys at regular intervals of four weeks to five months would make monitoring results more reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Brown, Ross D.

2007-11-01

Monotonic trend analysis of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) over the period 1972-2006 with the Mann-Kendall test reveals significant declines in SCE during spring over North America and Eurasia, with lesser declines during winter and some increases in fall SCE. The weekly mean trend attains -1.28, -0.78, and -0.48 × 106 km2 (35 years)-1 over the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Eurasia, respectively. The standardized SCE time series vary and trend coherently over Eurasia and North America, with evidence of a poleward amplification of decreasing SCE trends during spring. Multiple linear regression analyses reveal a significant dependence of the retreat of the spring continental SCE on latitude and elevation. The poleward amplification is consistent with an enhanced snow-albedo feedback over northern latitudes that acts to reinforce an initial anomaly in the cryospheric system.

Infrared Spectroscopic Imaging: The Next Generation

PubMed Central

Bhargava, Rohit

2013-01-01

Infrared (IR) spectroscopic imaging seemingly matured as a technology in the mid-2000s, with commercially successful instrumentation and reports in numerous applications. Recent developments, however, have transformed our understanding of the recorded data, provided capability for new instrumentation, and greatly enhanced the ability to extract more useful information in less time. These developments are summarized here in three broad areas— data recording, interpretation of recorded data, and information extraction—and their critical review is employed to project emerging trends. Overall, the convergence of selected components from hardware, theory, algorithms, and applications is one trend. Instead of similar, general-purpose instrumentation, another trend is likely to be diverse and application-targeted designs of instrumentation driven by emerging component technologies. The recent renaissance in both fundamental science and instrumentation will likely spur investigations at the confluence of conventional spectroscopic analyses and optical physics for improved data interpretation. While chemometrics has dominated data processing, a trend will likely lie in the development of signal processing algorithms to optimally extract spectral and spatial information prior to conventional chemometric analyses. Finally, the sum of these recent advances is likely to provide unprecedented capability in measurement and scientific insight, which will present new opportunities for the applied spectroscopist. PMID:23031693

1984–2010 trends in fire burn severity and area for the conterminous US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Picotte, Joshua J.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Meier, Gretchen; Howard, Stephen M.

2016-01-01

Burn severity products created by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project were used to analyse historical trends in burn severity. Using a severity metric calculated by modelling the cumulative distribution of differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and Relativized dNBR (RdNBR) data, we examined burn area and burn severity of 4893 historical fires (1984–2010) distributed across the conterminous US (CONUS) and mapped by MTBS. Yearly mean burn severity values (weighted by area), maximum burn severity metric values, mean area of burn, maximum burn area and total burn area were evaluated within 27 US National Vegetation Classification macrogroups. Time series assessments of burned area and severity were performed using Mann–Kendall tests. Burned area and severity varied by vegetation classification, but most vegetation groups showed no detectable change during the 1984–2010 period. Of the 27 analysed vegetation groups, trend analysis revealed burned area increased in eight, and burn severity has increased in seven. This study suggests that burned area and severity, as measured by the severity metric based on dNBR or RdNBR, have not changed substantially for most vegetation groups evaluated within CONUS.

Changes in antibiotic usage and susceptibility in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates following the introduction of ertapenem to hospital formulary.

PubMed

Graber, C J; Hutchings, C; Dong, F; Lee, W; Chung, J K; Tran, T

2012-01-01

There is concern that widespread usage of ertapenem may promote cross-resistance to other carbapenems. To analyse the impact that adding ertapenem to our hospital formulary had on usage of other broad-spectrum agents and on susceptibilities of nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates, we performed interrupted time-series analyses to determine the change in linear trend in antibiotic usage and change in mean proportion and linear trend of susceptibility pre- (March 2004-June 2005) and post- (July 2005-December 2008) ertapenem introduction. Usage of piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·0013) and ampicillin-sulbactam (P=0·035) declined post-ertapenem introduction. For Enterobacteriaceae, the mean proportion susceptible to ciprofloxacin (P=0·016) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·038) increased, while the linear trend in susceptibility significantly increased for cefepime (P=0·012) but declined for ceftriaxone (P=0·0032). For Pseudomonas, the mean proportion susceptible to cefepime (P=0·011) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·028) increased, as did the linear trend in susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (P=0·028). Notably, no significant changes in carbapenem susceptibility were observed.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). A general approach (I)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Salinas Solé, Celia; Jiménez Castañeda, Azucena; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

One of the most interesting issues in climate analyses of trend is the comparison between different results. This is a difficult task not only because of different spatial density of information, or data format (raster or station), but also because they usually analyze different temporal periods, sometimes differing only in few years, and trend of time (climate) variables can vary dramatically accordingly length of period and starting year (Lüdecke et al., 2011). In this poster we present the global frame of an approach that during the last years has attracted the attention of some researchers: the moving windows analyze. Basically it consists in calculate the trends for all the possible period, combining length and starting year in any given series of climate variables. The analysis obviously only can be applied to one series of data (i.e. one station), and the results are usually presented in triangular diagrams. This approach has been applied to regional, national or global series both to temperature and precipitation (Brunetti et al., 2006; Liebmann et al., 2010; González.Hidalgo et al. 2010, 2016, between others). The spatial differences in the behavior of temperatures and precipitation during the last year has been noticed in many research, particularly when high density of stations has been used, so the question is how to use this approach in dozens, hundreds or thousands of stations? We present in this poster example of graphical analyses of moving windows, how to read the graphs, the possibility that this analyses offers, etc. In a sequence of posters the analyze is applied to a high-resolution grid of monthly temperatures of Spanish mainland, MOTEDAS dataset (1951-2010), at season and monthly temporal scale (see Winter-II, Spring-III, Summer-IV and Autumn-V Posters). To apply the approach we have used an ergodic transformations from time (each temporal series) to space (all the series in the same period), i.e. we present the results of season and monthly mean values of Tmax and Tmin trends by showing a collection of maps accordingly changes in period length and starting year. In the sequence of seasons (see Poster II-III-IV and V), we have selected particularly a decreasing length period from triangular diagram, i.e. from 1951-2010 until 1991- 2010 (the hypotenuse of graphical triangle), thus, we analyze all the possible trends in periods between 60-years and 20-years (considering that 20 years represent a minimum period for detect any climate signal).

A Discussion of Upper Stratospheric Ozone Asymmetry and Ozone Trend Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jinlong; Cunnold, Derek M.; Wang, Hsiang-Jui; Yang, Eun-Su; Newchurch, Mike J.

2002-01-01

Analyses from SAGE I/II version 6.0 data exhibit upper stratospheric ozone trends which are not significantly different from those in version 5.96 data. Trend calculations show larger downward trends at mid-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in 1980s. There are also indications of decreasing downward trends with time from 1979 to 1999. We have used a chemical box model and the UARS measurements of long lived gases, CH4, H2O, NO(x), and temperature to show that, with a constant Cl(sub y) trend, a hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry of 1%/decade at 45 deg. around 43 km is expected due to the hemispheric differences of temperature and CH4 during late winter/early. Also ozone trends should have been approximately 1%/decade more negative from 1979-1989 than from 1989-1999 because of the chemical feedbacks. The model results further indicate that both the reported decrease in CH4 and the increase in H2O in HALOE measurements will result in a larger downward ozone trend and a decrease in the hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry.

Increasing prominence of implantology research: a chronological trend analysis of 100 top-cited articles in periodontal journals.

PubMed

Chiang, Ho-Sheng; Huang, Ren-Yeong; Weng, Pei-Wei; Mau, Lian-Ping; Su, Chi-Chun; Tsai, Yi-Wen Cathy; Wu, Yu-Chiao; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Shieh, Yi-Shing; Cheng, Wan-Chien

To identify 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals and analyse the research trends by using citation analysis. 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals were retrieved by searching the database of the ISI Web of Science and Journal Citation reports. For each article, the following principal bibliometric parameters: authorship, geographic and institute origin, manuscript type, study design, scope of study, and citation count of each time period were analysed from 1965 to 2015. The identified 100 top-cited articles were retrieved from five periodontal journals and citation counts were recorded between 262 and 1,693 times. For the institute of origin, the most productive institute, in terms of the number of 100 top-cited articles published, was the University of Gothenburg (Sweden) (n = 19), followed by the Forsyth Dental Center (USA) (n = 15). Most manuscripts were original research (n = 74), and the inflammatory periodontal disease (n = 59) was the most frequent topic studied. Interestingly, the trend of increase average citation reached significance for implantology (β = 26.75, P = 0.003) and systemic interactions (β = 29.83, P = 0.005), but not for inflammatory disease (β = -10.30, P = 0.248) and tissue regeneration (β = 9.04, P = 0.081). By using multivariable linear regression in a generalised linear model, suitable published journal (Journal of Clinical Periodontology), geographic regions (Europe), more intense international collaboration, adequate manuscript type (review article) and study design (systematic review) could be attributed to escalating average citation counts in implantology (all P < 0.05). However, for systemic interactions, only geographic region and study design were significantly associated with the increasing citation trend. These principal bibliometric characteristics revealed escalated trends in average citation count in implantology throughout time. Conflict-of-interest statement The authors have stated explicitly that there are no conflicts of interest in connection with this article. The study was self-funded by the authors and their institution.

Is it getting better? An analytical method to test trends in health disparities, with tobacco use among sexual minority vs. heterosexual youth as an example.

PubMed

Homma, Yuko; Saewyc, Elizabeth; Zumbo, Bruno D

2016-05-23

Previous studies have documented higher health risks for lesbian, gay, and bisexual youth compared to heterosexual youth. However, none has reported whether the sexual orientation-based gaps have widened, narrowed, or remained unchanged over time. The purpose of this study was to develop a way to test differences in trends between sexual minority and heterosexual youth cohorts in population-based studies, with cigarette smoking as an exemplar. We analysed the Minnesota Student Survey of 1998-2010, a repeated, cross-sectional census of adolescent health in grades 9 and 12. Our sample was students with recent sexual experience (Ns = 17,376-19,617). Sexual orientation was measured by gender of sexual partners in the past 12 months: students with only opposite-gender partner(s) (OPPOS), students with both male and female partners (BOTH), students with only same-gender partner(s) (SAME). We used logistic regressions to examine trends in prevalence of past-month cigarette smoking from 1998 to 2010, separately for each orientation group. We then applied novel interaction analyses to test whether disparities in smoking prevalence between OPPOS and SAME/BOTH changed over time. Recent smoking rates decreased over time among all orientation groups. BOTH adolescents were more likely than OPPOS adolescents to report past 30-day smoking, but there were no significant differences between SAME adolescents and OPPOS adolescents. Year-by-orientation interactions indicated the gap between BOTH adolescents and OPPOS adolescents widened from 1998 to 2004, then persisted between 2004 and 2010. No significant interaction effects were observed between SAME adolescents and OPPOS adolescents. All orientation groups had decreasing trends in recent cigarette smoking; however, disparities in smoking rates remain between heterosexual adolescents and bisexual adolescents. These results provide a new method of not just documenting trends within minority groups, but examining whether health equity is improving for them compared to dominant groups.

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of the model is rather poor, and possible explanations are discussed.

Secular trends, race, and geographic disparity of early-stage breast cancer incidence: 25 years of surveillance in Connecticut.

PubMed

Crabbe, J Christopher F; Gregorio, David I; Samociuk, Holly; Swede, Helen

2015-07-01

We considered changes in the geographic distribution of early stage breast cancer among White and non-White women while secular trends in lifestyle and health care were under way. We aggregated tumor registry and census data by age, race, place of residence, and year of diagnosis to evaluate rate variation across Connecticut census tracts between 1985 and 2009. Global and local cluster detection tests were completed. Age-adjusted incidence rates increased by 2.71% and 0.44% per year for White and non-White women, respectively. Significant global clustering was identified during surveillance of these populations, but the elements of clustering differed between groups. Among White women, fewer local clusters were detected after 1985 to 1989, whereas clustering increased over time among non-White women. Small-area variation of breast cancer incidence rates across time periods proved to be dynamic and race-specific. Incidence rates might have been affected by secular trends in lifestyle or health care. Single cross-sectional analyses might have confused our understanding of disease occurrence by not accounting for the social context in which patient preferences or provider capacity influence the numbers and locations of diagnosed cases. Serial analyses are recommended to identify "hot spots" where persistent geographic disparities in incidence occur.

Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raggad, Bechir

2018-05-01

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

Population and age-group trends in weekend sun protection and sunburn over two decades of the SunSmart programme in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

Makin, J K; Warne, C D; Dobbinson, S J; Wakefield, M A; Hill, D J

2013-01-01

In response to the high skin cancer burden in Australia, the multicomponent, community-wide SunSmart programme has worked since 1988 to reduce excessive sun exposure.  To examine trends in key sun-protection behaviours and sunburn for the Melbourne population from 1987 to 2007, and examine for the first time patterns of change among age groups.   Representative cross-sectional weekly telephone surveys of weekend sun protection and sunburn were conducted over 11 of the summers in the period 1987-88 to 2006-07. Trends were analysed for the population and for age groups, adjusting for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation, which are environmental determinants of sun-related behaviour and sunburn.   The general pattern of trends suggests two distinct periods, one with rapid improvement in behaviours (more sunscreen use, less unprotected body exposure and less sunburn) from 1987-88 to 1994-95, and the second from 1997-98 to 2006-07 with fewer changes in behaviours noted. The age-group analyses showed a similar pattern of change over time across groups, with a few notable exceptions.  The similarity of the pattern of trends among age groups suggests that external influences including the SunSmart programme's activity had a relatively similar impact across the population. Sun-related behaviours continue to be amenable to change. More recent relative stability with some declines in sun protection suggests further intensive campaigns and other strategies may be needed to maintain previous successes and to achieve more universal use of sun protection. © 2012 The Authors. BJD © 2012 British Association of Dermatologists.

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

Perspectives on monitoring gradual change across the continuity of Landsat sensors using time-series data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogelmann, James; Gallant, Alisa L.; Shi, Hua; Zhu, Zhe

2016-01-01

There are many types of changes occurring over the Earth's landscapes that can be detected and monitored using Landsat data. Here we focus on monitoring “within-state,” gradual changes in vegetation in contrast with traditional monitoring of “abrupt” land-cover conversions. Gradual changes result from a variety of processes, such as vegetation growth and succession, damage from insects and disease, responses to shifts in climate, and other factors. Despite the prevalence of gradual changes across the landscape, they are largely ignored by the remote sensing community. Gradual changes are best characterized and monitored using time-series analysis, and with the successful launch of Landsat 8 we now have appreciable data continuity that extends the Landsat legacy across the previous 43 years. In this study, we conducted three related analyses: (1) comparison of spectral values acquired by Landsats 7 and 8, separated by eight days, to ensure compatibility for time-series evaluation; (2) tracking of multitemporal signatures for different change processes across Landsat 5, 7, and 8 sensors using anniversary-date imagery; and (3) tracking the same type of processes using all available acquisitions. In this investigation, we found that data representing natural vegetation from Landsats 5, 7, and 8 were comparable and did not indicate a need for major modification prior to use for long-term monitoring. Analyses using anniversary-date imagery can be very effective for assessing long term patterns and trends occurring across the landscape, and are especially good for providing insights regarding trends related to long-term and continuous trends of growth or decline. We found that use of all available data provided a much more comprehensive level of understanding of the trends occurring, providing information about rate, duration, and intra- and inter-annual variability that could not be readily gleaned from the anniversary date analyses. We observed that using all available clear Landsat 5–8 observations with the new Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm was very effective for illuminating vegetation trends. There are a number of potential challenges for assessing gradual changes, including atmospheric impacts, algorithm development and visualization of the changes. One of the biggest challenges for studying gradual change will be the lack of appropriate data for validating results and products.

Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

2017-04-04

Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The final trend results are presented with examples of how to interpret the results from each trend model. Interpretation of the trend results, such as causal analysis, is not included.

A statistical package for computing time and frequency domain analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brownlow, J.

1978-01-01

The spectrum analysis (SPA) program is a general purpose digital computer program designed to aid in data analysis. The program does time and frequency domain statistical analyses as well as some preanalysis data preparation. The capabilities of the SPA program include linear trend removal and/or digital filtering of data, plotting and/or listing of both filtered and unfiltered data, time domain statistical characterization of data, and frequency domain statistical characterization of data.

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormick, M. P.; Veiga, Robert E.; Chu, William P.

1992-01-01

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

PubMed

Pfaller, Joseph B; Bjorndal, Karen A; Chaloupka, Milani; Williams, Kristina L; Frick, Michael G; Bolten, Alan B

2013-01-01

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē-Atbara river basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebremicael, Tesfay G.; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter v.; Hagos, Eyasu Y.

2017-04-01

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.

Spatial and Temporal scales of time-averaged 700 MB height anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutzler, D.

1981-01-01

The monthly and seasonal forecasting technique is based to a large extent on the extrapolation of trends in the positions of the centers of time averaged geopotential height anomalies. The complete forecasted height pattern is subsequently drawn around the forecasted anomaly centers. The efficacy of this technique was tested and time series of observed monthly mean and 5 day mean 700 mb geopotential heights were examined. Autocorrelation statistics are generated to document the tendency for persistence of anomalies. These statistics are compared to a red noise hypothesis to check for evidence of possible preferred time scales of persistence. Space-time spectral analyses at middle latitudes are checked for evidence of periodicities which could be associated with predictable month-to-month trends. A local measure of the average spatial scale of anomalies is devised for guidance in the completion of the anomaly pattern around the forecasted centers.

Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.; Hannachi, A.

2017-06-01

The study of regional rainfall trends over South Asia is critically important for food security and economy, as both these factors largely depend on the availability of water. In this study, South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trends on seasonal and monthly (June-September) time scales have been investigated using three observational data sets. Our analysis identify a dipole-type structure in rainfall trends over the region north of the Indo-Pak subcontinent, with significant increasing trends over the core monsoon region of Pakistan and significant decreasing trends over the central-north India and adjacent areas. The dipole is also evident in monthly rainfall trend analyses, which is more prominent in July and August. We show, in particular, that the strengthening of northward moisture transport over the Arabian Sea is a likely reason for the significant positive trend of rainfall in the core monsoon region of Pakistan. In contrast, over the central-north India region, the rainfall trends are significantly decreasing due to the weakening of northward moisture transport over the Bay of Bengal. The leading empirical orthogonal functions clearly show the strengthening (weakening) patterns of vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) in seasonal and monthly interannual time scales. The regression analysis between the principal components and rainfall confirm the dipole pattern over the region. Our results also suggest that the extra-tropical phenomena could influence the mean monsoon rainfall trends over Pakistan by enhancing the cross-equatorial flow of moisture into the Arabian Sea.

Scaling Analysis of Alloy Solidification and Fluid Flow in a Rectangular Cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plotkowski, A.; Fezi, K.; Krane, M. J. M.

A scaling analysis was performed to predict trends in alloy solidification in a side-cooled rectangular cavity. The governing equations for energy and momentum were scaled in order to determine the dependence of various aspects of solidification on the process parameters for a uniform initial temperature and an isothermal boundary condition. This work improved on previous analyses by adding considerations for the cooling bulk fluid flow. The analysis predicted the time required to extinguish the superheat, the maximum local solidification time, and the total solidification time. The results were compared to a numerical simulation for a Al-4.5 wt.% Cu alloy with various initial and boundary conditions. Good agreement was found between the simulation results and the trends predicted by the scaling analysis.

Mapping the structure of the world economy.

PubMed

Lenzen, Manfred; Kanemoto, Keiichiro; Moran, Daniel; Geschke, Arne

2012-08-07

We have developed a new series of environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) tables with applications in carbon, water, and ecological footprinting, and Life-Cycle Assessment, as well as trend and key driver analyses. Such applications have recently been at the forefront of global policy debates, such as about assigning responsibility for emissions embodied in internationally traded products. The new time series was constructed using advanced parallelized supercomputing resources, and significantly advances the previous state of art because of four innovations. First, it is available as a continuous 20-year time series of MRIO tables. Second, it distinguishes 187 individual countries comprising more than 15,000 industry sectors, and hence offers unsurpassed detail. Third, it provides information just 1-3 years delayed therefore significantly improving timeliness. Fourth, it presents MRIO elements with accompanying standard deviations in order to allow users to understand the reliability of data. These advances will lead to material improvements in the capability of applications that rely on input-output tables. The timeliness of information means that analyses are more relevant to current policy questions. The continuity of the time series enables the robust identification of key trends and drivers of global environmental change. The high country and sector detail drastically improves the resolution of Life-Cycle Assessments. Finally, the availability of information on uncertainty allows policy-makers to quantitatively judge the level of confidence that can be placed in the results of analyses.

Trends in television time, non-gaming PC use and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity among German adolescents 2002–2010

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Studies in youth highlight that moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen-time behaviours such as television viewing and PC use are associated with a range of health outcomes. However, little is known about recent trends in these behaviours in adolescents. This paper presents time trends in German adolescents’ television time, non-gaming PC use as well as MVPA from 2002 to 2010. Methods Data were derived from the cross-sectional German Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study in 2002, 2006 and 2010. Analyses were based on 16,918 11-to 15-year olds boys (49.1%) and girls. Outcome variables were time spent in TV viewing and using a PC (weekday and weekend day) as well as the number of days achieving 60 minutes of MVPA. Changes in both screen-time behaviours and MVPA over time were analysed using sex-specific linear regression, controlling for age and family affluence. Results TV viewing on weekdays, but not at weekends, declined steadily over time with a difference between 2002 and 2010 of 12.4 min/day in girls and 18.3 min/day in boys (p for trend < .01). We found a strong increase in PC use for non-gaming purposes over time for girls only, with a difference between 2002 and 2010 of 54.1 min/weekday and 68.8 min/weekend day (p < .001). For MVPA we found a slight statistically significant increase in terms of meeting PA guidelines as well as days/week in MVPA for boys and girls (p < .001). In 2010 14.0% of girls and 19.9% of boys met PA guideline. Conclusion Although MVPA increased from 2002 to 2010 in German adolescents, the time spent in MVPA was still low. Despite the observed decrease in TV viewing, there was no overall decline in the observed screen-based behaviours, especially for girls. This is mainly due to a marked increase in use of a PC for chatting on-line, internet, emailing, homework etc. among girls during the last ten years which outweighs the corresponding decrease in TV viewing. The findings highlight a need for strategies and interventions aimed at reducing screen-time behaviours and promoting MVPA. PMID:24725269

Surgical adverse outcome reporting as part of routine clinical care.

PubMed

Kievit, J; Krukerink, M; Marang-van de Mheen, P J

2010-12-01

In The Netherlands, health professionals have created a doctor-driven standardised system to report and analyse adverse outcomes (AO). The aim is to improve healthcare by learning from past experiences. The key elements of this system are (1) an unequivocal definition of an adverse outcome, (2) appropriate contextual information and (3) a three-dimensional hierarchical classification system. First, to assess whether routine doctor-driven AO reporting is feasible. Second, to investigate how doctors can learn from AO reporting and analysis to improve the quality of care. Feasibility was assessed by how well doctors reported AO in the surgical department of a Dutch university hospital over a period of 9 years. AO incidence was analysed per patient subgroup and over time, in a time-trend analysis of three equal 3-year periods. AO were analysed case by case and statistically, to learn lessons from past events. In 19,907 surgical admissions, 9189 AOs were reported: one or more AO in 18.2% of admissions. On average, 55 lessons were learnt each year (in 4.3% of AO). More AO were reported in P3 than P1 (OR 1.39 (1.23-1.57)). Although minor AO increased, fatal AO decreased over time (OR 0.59 (0.45-0.77)). Doctor-driven AO reporting is shown to be feasible. Lessons can be learnt from case-by-case analyses of individual AO, as well as by statistical analysis of AO groups and subgroups (illustrated by time-trend analysis), thus contributing to the improvement of the quality of care. Moreover, by standardising AO reporting, data can be compared across departments or hospitals, to generate (confidential) mirror information for professionals cooperating in a peer-review setting.

Surgical adverse outcome reporting as part of routine clinical care

PubMed Central

Krukerink, M; Marang-van de Mheen, P J

2010-01-01

Background In The Netherlands, health professionals have created a doctor-driven standardised system to report and analyse adverse outcomes (AO). The aim is to improve healthcare by learning from past experiences. The key elements of this system are (1) an unequivocal definition of an adverse outcome, (2) appropriate contextual information and (3) a three-dimensional hierarchical classification system. Objectives First, to assess whether routine doctor-driven AO reporting is feasible. Second, to investigate how doctors can learn from AO reporting and analysis to improve the quality of care. Methods Feasibility was assessed by how well doctors reported AO in the surgical department of a Dutch university hospital over a period of 9 years. AO incidence was analysed per patient subgroup and over time, in a time-trend analysis of three equal 3-year periods. AO were analysed case by case and statistically, to learn lessons from past events. Results In 19 907 surgical admissions, 9189 AOs were reported: one or more AO in 18.2% of admissions. On average, 55 lessons were learnt each year (in 4.3% of AO). More AO were reported in P3 than P1 (OR 1.39 (1.23–1.57)). Although minor AO increased, fatal AO decreased over time (OR 0.59 (0.45–0.77)). Conclusions Doctor-driven AO reporting is shown to be feasible. Lessons can be learnt from case-by-case analyses of individual AO, as well as by statistical analysis of AO groups and subgroups (illustrated by time-trend analysis), thus contributing to the improvement of the quality of care. Moreover, by standardising AO reporting, data can be compared across departments or hospitals, to generate (confidential) mirror information for professionals cooperating in a peer-review setting. PMID:20430928

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Chris; Saracco, James; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Huff, Mark; Happe, Patricia J.; Ransom, Jason I.

2017-01-01

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

The effect of the late 2000s financial crisis on suicides in Spain: an interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, James A; Gasparrini, Antonio; Artundo, Carlos M; McKee, Martin

2013-10-01

The current financial crisis is having a major impact on European economies, especially that of Spain. Past evidence suggests that adverse macro-economic conditions exacerbate mental illness, but evidence from the current crisis is limited. This study analyses the association between the financial crisis and suicide rates in Spain. An interrupted time-series analysis of national suicides data between 2005 and 2010 was used to establish whether there has been any deviation in the underlying trend in suicide rates associated with the financial crisis. Segmented regression with a seasonally adjusted quasi-Poisson model was used for the analysis. Stratified analyses were performed to establish whether the effect of the crisis on suicides varied by region, sex and age group. The mean monthly suicide rate in Spain during the study period was 0.61 per 100 000 with an underlying trend of a 0.3% decrease per month. We found an 8.0% increase in the suicide rate above this underlying trend since the financial crisis (95% CI: 1.009-1.156; P = 0.03); this was robust to sensitivity analysis. A control analysis showed no change in deaths from accidental falls associated with the crisis. Stratified analyses suggested that the association between the crisis and suicide rates is greatest in the Mediterranean and Northern areas, in males and amongst those of working age. The financial crisis in Spain has been associated with a relative increase in suicides. Males and those of working age may be at particular risk of suicide associated with the crisis and may benefit from targeted interventions.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is therefore better to use the NCEP-CFSR dataset than the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets when discussing trends in the SAH.

Observed SWE trends and climate analysis for Northwest Pacific North America: validation for future projection of SWE using the CRCM and VIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Bronaugh, D.; Rodenhuis, D.

2008-12-01

Observational databases of snow water equivalent (SWE) have been collected from Alaska, western US states and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and territories of NWT, and the Yukon. These databases were initially validated to remove inconsistencies and errors in the station records, dates or the geographic co-ordinates of the station. The cleaned data was then analysed for historical (1950 to 2006) trend using emerging techniques for trend detection based on (first of the month) estimates for January to June. Analysis of SWE showed spatial variability in the count of records across the six month time period, and this study illustrated differences between Canadian and US (or the north and south) collection. Two different data sets (one gridded and one station) were then used to analyse April 1st records, for which there was the greatest spatial spread of station records for analysis with climate information. Initial results show spatial variability (in both magnitude and direction of trend) for trend results, and climate correlations and principal components indicate different drivers of change in SWE across the western US, Canada and north to Alaska. These results will be used to validate future predictions of SWE that are being undertaken using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model for Western Northern America (CRCM) and British Columbia (VIC).

Advances in Temporal Analysis in Learning and Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Inge

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on a trend to analyse temporal characteristics of constructs important to learning and instruction. Different researchers have indicated that we should pay more attention to time in our research to enhance explanatory power and increase validity. Constructs formerly viewed as personal traits, such as self-regulated learning and…

Domestic Violence against People with Disabilities: Prevalence and Trend Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Jin-Ding; Lin, Lan-Ping; Lin, Pei-Ying; Wu, Jia-Lin; Li, Chien-De; Kuo, Fang-Yu

2010-01-01

The present study analyzed national data from "Domestic Violence Report System" derived primarily from the Council of Domestic Violence and Sexual Assaults Prevention, Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan, to describe the reported prevalence of domestic violence in people with disabilities and to examine the time-effect on the prevalence…

Epidemiology of hospitalised osteochondritis dissecans in young people: incidence, geographical variation and trends over time in England from 2002 to 2010.

PubMed

Keenan, Oisin J F; Turner, Philip G; Yeates, David; Goldacre, Michael J

2014-03-01

Osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) is an important cause of knee pain in physically active adolescents, but its aetiology remains controversial. Modern data on its epidemiology are lacking. The aim of this study was to analyse the hospitalised incidence, age and sex distribution, trends over time and geographical variation in OCD in the whole of England. Hospital episode statistics (HES) data were analysed for OCD over the period 2002/3 to 2010/11 for England. HES datasets were record-linked so that anyone with multiple admissions for OCD was counted once only. The annual incidence rate for hospitalised OCD was 1.58 (95% CI 1.51-1.64) cases per 100,000 population. The peak age at diagnosis was 15-19 years for both sexes, and boys were affected more commonly than girls in the ratio 2:1. The hospitalised incidence of OCD varied significantly across England by government office region, from 1.05 (0.91-1.20) in London to 1.89 (1.70-2.09) in the North West Region. These data on the epidemiological features and trends over time in OCD provide new information about its basic epidemiological distribution. Its annual hospitalised incidence is about 1.6 cases per 100,000 population under 25 years, but varies significantly across England. These results have implications for planning rheumatology and orthopaedic services for both children and adults. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

PubMed

Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-09-01

Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

Operating Room Efficiency before and after Entrance in a Benchmarking Program for Surgical Process Data.

PubMed

Pedron, Sara; Winter, Vera; Oppel, Eva-Maria; Bialas, Enno

2017-08-23

Operating room (OR) efficiency continues to be a high priority for hospitals. In this context the concept of benchmarking has gained increasing importance as a means to improve OR performance. The aim of this study was to investigate whether and how participation in a benchmarking and reporting program for surgical process data was associated with a change in OR efficiency, measured through raw utilization, turnover times, and first-case tardiness. The main analysis is based on panel data from 202 surgical departments in German hospitals, which were derived from the largest database for surgical process data in Germany. Panel regression modelling was applied. Results revealed no clear and univocal trend of participation in a benchmarking and reporting program for surgical process data. The largest trend was observed for first-case tardiness. In contrast to expectations, turnover times showed a generally increasing trend during participation. For raw utilization no clear and statistically significant trend could be evidenced. Subgroup analyses revealed differences in effects across different hospital types and department specialties. Participation in a benchmarking and reporting program and thus the availability of reliable, timely and detailed analysis tools to support the OR management seemed to be correlated especially with an increase in the timeliness of staff members regarding first-case starts. The increasing trend in turnover time revealed the absence of effective strategies to improve this aspect of OR efficiency in German hospitals and could have meaningful consequences for the medium- and long-run capacity planning in the OR.

Are more North American species decreasing than increasing?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Hagemeijer, E.J.M.; Verstrael, T.J.

1994-01-01

Population trends for North American species are calculated for 1966-'91 and 1982-'91 using Nonh American Breeding Bird Survey data. Species are grouped into 3 systems of guild classifications representing migration status, breeding habitat and nesting substrate. Trends for these groups are summarized by time period, bioregion and physiographic region. At the continental level, declines approximately equalled increases. There are slightly more declines during the last 10 years. Prairie populations declined more than expected, while western populations increased. Scrub and grassland nesting species declined significantly in several bioregions while woodland species increased. Most guilds did not depart significantly from a ratio of 50:50 increases to decreases or have opposing trends in different bioregions. Guild group changes are usually clustered geographically. Guild and other analyses that search for patterns among population trend estimates offer an excellent means of identifying critical conservation issues.

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2005-01-01

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

2017-04-01

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

Hydronephrosis in patients with cervical cancer: an assessment of morbidity and survival.

PubMed

Patel, Krishna; Foster, Nathan R; Kumar, Amanika; Grudem, Megan; Longenbach, Sherri; Bakkum-Gamez, Jamie; Haddock, Michael; Dowdy, Sean; Jatoi, Aminah

2015-05-01

Hydronephrosis is a frequently observed but understudied complication in patients with cervical cancer. To better characterize hydronephrosis in cervical cancer patients, the current study sought (1) to describe hydronephrosis-associated morbidity and (2) to analyze the prognostic effect of hydronephrosis in patients with a broad range of cancer stages over time. The Mayo Clinic Tumor Registry was interrogated for all invasive cervical cancer patients seen at the Mayo Clinic from 2008 through 2013 in Rochester, Minnesota; these patients' medical records were then reviewed in detail. Two hundred seventy-nine cervical cancer patients with a median age of 49 years and a range of cancer stages were included. Sixty-five patients (23 %) were diagnosed with hydronephrosis at some point during their disease course. In univariate analyses, hydronephrosis was associated with advanced cancer stage (p < 0.0001), squamous histology (p = 0.0079), and nonsurgical cancer treatment (p = 0.0039). In multivariate analyses, stage and tumor histology were associated with hydronephrosis. All but one patient underwent stent placement or urinary diversion; hydronephrosis-related morbidity included pain, urinary tract infections, nausea and vomiting, renal failure, and urinary tract bleeding. In landmark univariate survival analyses, hydronephrosis was associated with worse survival at all time points. In landmark multivariate analyses (adjusted for patient age, stage, cancer treatment, and tumor histology), hydronephrosis was associated with a trend toward worse survival over time (hazard ratios ranged from 1.47 to 4.69). Hydronephrosis in cervical cancer patients is associated with notable morbidity. It is also associated with trends toward worse survival-even if it occurs after the original cancer diagnosis.

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

PubMed

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

No evidence for consistent long-term growth stimulation of 13 tropical tree species: results from tree-ring analysis.

PubMed

Groenendijk, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Bongers, Frans; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-10-01

The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2 -fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights into species-specific growth changes - that ultimately determine community-level responses - are lacking. Here, we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size-class isolation) growth-trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Antibiotic use and bacterial complications following upper respiratory tract infections: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Cars, Thomas; Eriksson, Irene; Granath, Anna; Wettermark, Björn; Hellman, Jenny; Norman, Christer; Ternhag, Anders

2017-01-01

Objectives To investigate if use of antibiotics was associated with bacterial complications following upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs). Design Ecological time-trend analysis and a prospective cohort study. Setting Primary, outpatient specialist and inpatient care in Stockholm County, Sweden. All analyses were based on administrative healthcare data on consultations, diagnoses and dispensed antibiotics from January 2006 to January 2016. Main outcome measures Ecological time-trend analysis: 10-year trend analyses of the incidence of URTIs, bacterial infections/complications and respiratory antibiotic use. Prospective cohort study: Incidence of bacterial complications following URTIs in antibiotic-exposed and non-exposed patients. Results The utilisation of respiratory tract antibiotics decreased by 22% from 2006 to 2015, but no increased trend for mastoiditis (p=0.0933), peritonsillar abscess (p=0.0544), invasive group A streptococcal disease (p=0.3991), orbital abscess (p=0.9637), extradural and subdural abscesses (p=0.4790) and pansinusitis (p=0.3971) was observed. For meningitis and acute ethmoidal sinusitis, a decrease in the numbers of infections from 2006 to 2015 was observed (p=0.0038 and p=0.0003, respectively), and for retropharyngeal and parapharyngeal abscesses, an increase was observed (p=0.0214). Bacterial complications following URTIs were uncommon in both antibiotic-exposed (less than 1.5 per 10 000 episodes) and non-exposed patients (less than 1.3 per 10 000 episodes) with the exception of peritonsillar abscess after tonsillitis (risk per 10 000 tonsillitis episodes: 32.4 and 41.1 in patients with no antibiotic treatment and patients treated with antibiotics, respectively). Conclusions Bacterial complications following URTIs are rare, and antibiotics may lack protective effect in preventing bacterial complications. Analyses of routinely collected administrative healthcare data can provide valuable information on the number of URTIs, antibiotic use and bacterial complications to patients, prescribers and policy-makers. PMID:29146635

The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

2016-04-01

An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood protection measures, that is based on such studies might therefore be fundamentally flawed.

Time-series analysis of delta13C from tree rings. I. Time trends and autocorrelation.

PubMed

Monserud, R A; Marshall, J D

2001-09-01

Univariate time-series analyses were conducted on stable carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree-ring cellulose. We looked for the presence and structure of autocorrelation. Significant autocorrelation violates the statistical independence assumption and biases hypothesis tests. Its presence would indicate the existence of lagged physiological effects that persist for longer than the current year. We analyzed data from 28 trees (60-85 years old; mean = 73 years) of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca) growing in northern Idaho. Material was obtained by the stem analysis method from rings laid down in the upper portion of the crown throughout each tree's life. The sampling protocol minimized variation caused by changing light regimes within each tree. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were used to describe the autocorrelation structure over time. Three time series were analyzed for each tree: the stable carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C); discrimination (delta); and the difference between ambient and internal CO(2) concentrations (c(a) - c(i)). The effect of converting from ring cellulose to whole-leaf tissue did not affect the analysis because it was almost completely removed by the detrending that precedes time-series analysis. A simple linear or quadratic model adequately described the time trend. The residuals from the trend had a constant mean and variance, thus ensuring stationarity, a requirement for autocorrelation analysis. The trend over time for c(a) - c(i) was particularly strong (R(2) = 0.29-0.84). Autoregressive moving average analyses of the residuals from these trends indicated that two-thirds of the individual tree series contained significant autocorrelation, whereas the remaining third were random (white noise) over time. We were unable to distinguish between individuals with and without significant autocorrelation beforehand. Significant ARMA models were all of low order, with either first- or second-order (i.e., lagged 1 or 2 years, respectively) models performing well. A simple autoregressive (AR(1)), model was the most common. The most useful generalization was that the same ARMA model holds for each of the three series (delta(13)C, delta, c(a) - c(i)) for an individual tree, if the time trend has been properly removed for each series. The mean series for the two pine species were described by first-order ARMA models (1-year lags), whereas the Douglas-fir mean series were described by second-order models (2-year lags) with negligible first-order effects. Apparently, the process of constructing a mean time series for a species preserves an underlying signal related to delta(13)C while canceling some of the random individual tree variation. Furthermore, the best model for the overall mean series (e.g., for a species) cannot be inferred from a consensus of the individual tree model forms, nor can its parameters be estimated reliably from the mean of the individual tree parameters. Because two-thirds of the individual tree time series contained significant autocorrelation, the normal assumption of a random structure over time is unwarranted, even after accounting for the time trend. The residuals of an appropriate ARMA model satisfy the independence assumption, and can be used to make hypothesis tests.

Time series models on analysing mortality rates and acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia.

PubMed

Kis, Maria

2005-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate applying time series models on medical research. The Hungarian mortality rates were analysed by autoregressive integrated moving average models and seasonal time series models examined the data of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia.The mortality data may be analysed by time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. This method is demonstrated by two examples: analysis of the mortality rates of ischemic heart diseases and analysis of the mortality rates of cancer of digestive system. Mathematical expressions are given for the results of analysis. The relationships between time series of mortality rates were studied with ARIMA models. Calculations of confidence intervals for autoregressive parameters by tree methods: standard normal distribution as estimation and estimation of the White's theory and the continuous time case estimation. Analysing the confidence intervals of the first order autoregressive parameters we may conclude that the confidence intervals were much smaller than other estimations by applying the continuous time estimation model.We present a new approach to analysing the occurrence of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia. We decompose time series into components. The periodicity of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia in Hungary was examined using seasonal decomposition time series method. The cyclic trend of the dates of diagnosis revealed that a higher percent of the peaks fell within the winter months than in the other seasons. This proves the seasonal occurrence of the childhood leukaemia in Hungary.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-09-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25-100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-01-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

The bark of the branches of holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) for a retrospective study of trace elements in the atmosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drava, Giuliana, E-mail: drava@difar.unige.it; Bri

Tree bark has proved to be a useful bioindicator for trace elements in the atmosphere, however it reflects an exposure occurring during an unidentified period of time, so it provides spatial information about the distribution of contaminants in a certain area, but it cannot be used to detect temporal changes or trends, which is an important achievement in environmental studies. In order to obtain information about a known period of time, the bark collected from the annual segments of tree branches can be used, allowing analyses going back 10–15 years with annual resolution. In the present study, the concentrations ofmore » As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured by atomic emission spectrometry in a series of samples covering the period from 2001 to 2013 in an urban environment. Downward time trends were significant for Cd, Pb and Zn. The only trace element showing an upward time trend was V. The concentrations of the remaining six trace elements were constant over time, showing that their presence in bark is not simply proportional to the duration of exposure. This approach, which is simple, reliable and widely applicable at a low cost, allows the “a posteriori” reconstruction of atmospheric trace element deposition when or where no monitoring programme is in progress and no other natural archives are available. - Highlights: • Branch bark allows the historical reconstruction of atmospheric trace elements. • This approach is simple, reliable, widely applicable and “a posteriori”. • Downward time trends were found for Cd, Pb and Zn; upward trend for V.« less

GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam

2018-03-01

Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) - specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups - is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979-2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

[The development of legal guardianship and involuntary treatment in a Bavarian catchment area in comparison to trends at the federal state and the federal level between 1999 and 2009].

PubMed

Valdes-Stauber, Juan; Putzhammer, Albert; Kilian, Reinhold

2011-05-01

In this study trends in legal guardianship and involuntary treatment in a Bavarian catchment area in comparison to trends at federal state and federal level between 1999 and 2009 will be examined. Data from the federal department of justice, from the federal health monitoring system and data from a district court were used to compute rates, quotas and quotients. Regression analyses were conducted to analyse associations between time series. In comparison to the federal state and the federal level the target region shows a significantly higher rate of new guardianships but a lower rate of judicial ordered mobility restrictions and at least in comparison to the federal state level a significantly lower rate of involuntary admissions according to guardianship law. The obtained differences indicate significant differences in the legal guardianship and involuntary admission practise which cannot be explained by epidemiological developments. Therefore it is necessary to investigate potential socio-cultural and socioeconomic sources for these varieties. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Trends in published meta-analyses in cancer research, 2008-2013.

PubMed

Qadir, Ximena V; Clyne, Mindy; Lam, Tram Kim; Khoury, Muin J; Schully, Sheri D

2017-01-01

In order to capture trends in the contribution of epidemiology to cancer research, we describe an online meta-analysis database resource for cancer clinical and population research and illustrate trends and descriptive detail of cancer meta-analyses from 2008 through 2013. A total of 4,686 cancer meta-analyses met our inclusion criteria. During this 6-year period, a fivefold increase was observed in the yearly number of meta-analyses. Fifty-six percent of meta-analyses concerned observational studies, mostly of cancer risk, more than half of which were genetic studies. The major cancer sites were breast, colorectal, and digestive. This online database for Cancer Genomics and Epidemiology Navigator will be continuously updated to allow investigators to quickly navigate the meta-analyses emerging from cancer epidemiology studies and cancer clinical trials.

A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2007-01-01

Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.

Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, C.; Pauling, A.; Küttel, M.; Wanner, H.

2009-01-01

We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann-Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715-1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradiance.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas of 33 Spanish cities.

PubMed

Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Gotsens, Mercè; Palència, Laia; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A; Ballesta, Mónica; Calvo, Montse; Cirera, Lluís; Daponte, Antonio; Domínguez-Berjón, Felicitas; Gandarillas, Ana; Goñi, Natividad Izco; Martos, Carmen; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Nolasco, Andreu; Salmerón, Diego; Taracido, Margarita; Borrell, Carme

2016-07-29

In Spain, several ecological studies have analyzed trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from all causes in urban areas over time. However, the results of these studies are quite heterogeneous finding, in general, that inequalities decreased, or remained stable. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: (1) to identify trends in geographical inequalities in all-cause mortality in the census tracts of 33 Spanish cities between the two periods 1996-1998 and 2005-2007; (2) to analyse trends in the relationship between these geographical inequalities and socioeconomic deprivation; and (3) to obtain an overall measure which summarises the relationship found in each one of the cities and to analyse its variation over time. Ecological study of trends with 2 cross-sectional cuts, corresponding to two periods of analysis: 1996-1998 and 2005-2007. Units of analysis were census tracts of the 33 Spanish cities. A deprivation index calculated for each census tracts in all cities was included as a covariate. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate smoothed Standardized Mortality Ratios (sSMR) by each census tract and period. The geographical distribution of these sSMR was represented using maps of septiles. In addition, two different Bayesian hierarchical models were used to measure the association between all-cause mortality and the deprivation index in each city and period, and by sex: (1) including the association as a fixed effect for each city; (2) including the association as random effects. In both models the data spatial structure can be controlled within each city. The association in each city was measured using relative risks (RR) and their 95 % credible intervals (95 % CI). For most cities and in both sexes, mortality rates decline over time. For women, the mortality and deprivation patterns are similar in the first period, while in the second they are different for most cities. For men, RRs remain stable over time in 29 cities, in 3 diminish and in 1 increase. For women, in 30 cities, a non-significant change over time in RR is observed. However, in 4 cities RR diminishes. In overall terms, inequalities decrease (with a probability of 0.9) in both men (RR = 1.13, 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15 in the 1st period; RR = 1.11, 95 % CI = 1.09-1.13 in the 2nd period) and women (RR = 1.07, 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08 in the 1st period; RR = 1.04, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.06 in the 2nd period). In the future, it is important to conduct further trend studies, allowing to monitoring trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality and to identify (among other things) temporal factors that may influence these inequalities.

Effect of perioperative inefficiency on neurosurgical theatre efficacy: A 15-year analysis.

PubMed

Kamat, Ameya S; Parker, Andrew

2015-01-01

Effective utilisation of operating theatre time is an important issue in neurosurgery. There is a commonly held belief amongst surgeons that throughput of theatre is decreasing secondary to worsening perioperative delays. The aim of this paper is to explore some of the factors that lead to delays in the perioperative period by determining whether there has been a trend in the increasing length of case time over a fifteen-year period. Case notes of all elective patients who consented for surgery between January 1998 and the end of 2012 were reviewed. Only patients who underwent elective surgery were included. Variables recorded included transit time from the ward to theatre, anaesthetic time, surgical time and time spent in recovery. These were compared over the 15-year period to look for apparent trends. The total number of patients who consented for elective surgery at our institution between January 1998 and December 2012 was 6760. The mean anaesthetic time considering all operations performed was 43 mins each over the 15-year period. Anaesthetic time was deemed to be trending upwards from 1998 where the mean time was 27 -60 mins in December 2012, thus reflecting an increase of 33 mins. The mean surgical times over the 15-year period were 131 mins. However in 1998, mean surgical time was 127 mins compared with 133 mins in 2012. For the operations analysed, anaesthetic time seems to be increasing and has effectively doubled over a 15-year period. Surgical time and non-clinical time are shown to be virtually constant. This delays the overall theatre list and increases the cancellation rate. For compensating this, changes need to be made when allocating resources to both elective and emergency theatres. Staff recruitment needs to be assessed and internal audits need to be conducted within institutions to analyse ways to optimise the throughput of an operation theatre. If these principles are not adhered to, it will have a negative impact as our populations, and hence our case loads increase to instrumental levels. This will in turn have a negative impact on health workers and patients alike.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Farallon de Medinilla seabird and Tinian moorhen analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Leopold, Christina R.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Juola, Franz

2015-01-01

This report assesses the trends in brown booby (Sula leucogaster), masked booby (S. dactylatra), and red-footed booby (S. sula) counts collected on Farallon de Medinilla and Mariana common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus guami) counts on Tinian, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands to help elucidate patterns in bird numbers. During either monthly or quarterly surveys between 1997 and 2014 counts of all four bird species were recorded, generating a relatively noisy time series revealing inter-annual variation in index counts by as much as 1,000%. For the purposes of assessing long-term population trends across years we chose a single, species-specific month to assess trends. Doing so reduces the effect of intra-annual variation allowing the analysis to focus on inter-annual variation important to long-term trends assessment. There are clear fluctuations in the counts of all four species. Although the trends were non-significant, there is some evidence that masked and red-footed booby species have declined while brown booby and moorhen have increased.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Changes in Adolescents' Conflict Responses Associated with Consecutive Presentation of Hypothetical Conflict Situations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, H. Durell; LaVoie, Joseph C.; Eggenburg, Erin; Mahoney, Molly A.; Pounds, Lea

2001-01-01

One frequently used research protocol involves presenting several conflict scenarios to participants during a single session. However, in real-life situations multiple conflicts rarely occur within short periods of time, and the nature of presentation may change adolescents' reports of conflict behaviors. Trend analyses of responses suggest that…

An efficient estimator to monitor rapidly changing forest conditions

Treesearch

Raymond L. Czaplewski; Michael T. Thompson; Gretchen G. Moisen

2012-01-01

Extensive expanses of forest often change at a slow pace. In this common situation, FIA produces informative estimates of current status with the Moving Average (MA) method and post-stratification with a remotely sensed map of forest-nonforest cover. However, MA "smoothes out" estimates over time, which confounds analyses of temporal trends; and post-...

Trends in Survival After In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

PubMed Central

Girotra, Saket; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K.; Spertus, John A.; Li, Yan; Krumholz, Harlan M.; Chan, Paul S.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Despite numerous advances in resuscitation care in recent years, it remains unknown whether survival and neurological function after in-hospital cardiac arrest has improved over time. METHODS We identified all adults with an index in-hospital cardiac arrest at 374 hospitals in the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between 2000 and 2009. Using multivariable regression, we examined temporal trends in risk-adjusted rates of survival to discharge. Additional analyses explored whether trends: (1) were due to improved survival during the acute resuscitation or post-resuscitation care and (2) occurred at the expense of greater neurological disability among survivors. RESULTS Among 84,625 hospitalized patients with cardiac arrest, 67,135 (79.3%) had an initial rhythm of asystole or pulseless electrical activity while 17,490 (20.7%) had ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia. The proportion of cardiac arrests due to asystole or pulseless electrical activity increased over time (P for trend <0.001). Risk-adjusted rates of survival to discharge in the overall cohort increased from 13.7% in 2000 to 22.4% in 2009 (adjusted rate-ratio per 1-year: 1.04, 95% CI [1.02–1.05]; P for trend <0.001). Survival improvement was similar in both rhythm groups and largely due to improved survival from the acute resuscitation (risk-adjusted rates: 42.7% in 2000, 54.1% in 2009; adjusted rate-ratio per 1-year: 1.03, 95% CI [1.02–1.04]; P for trend <0.001). Importantly, rates of neurological disability among survivors decreased over time (risk-adjusted rates: 32.9% in 2000, 28.1% in 2009; P for trend=0.02). CONCLUSIONS Both survival and neurological outcomes after in-hospital cardiac arrest have improved over the past decade. PMID:23150959

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-02-01

The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly `no trend' results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981-2016 rather than for 1956-2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

Changing epidemiology of intentional antidepressant drug overdose in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Wong, Anselm; Taylor, David McD; Ashby, Karen; Robinson, Jeff

2010-08-01

To determine the epidemiology of intentional antidepressant drug overdose (OD), over an extended time period, in Victoria, Australia. Retrospective epidemiological study of all cases reported to the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD) January 1998 to December 2007 and calls to the Victorian Poisons Information Centre (VPIC) June 2005 to September 2008. 5467 VEMD cases were analysed. 3169 (57.9%) cases involved selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and 1149 (21%) involved tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs). Sertraline (1252, 22.9% cases) was the most common drug. During 2001, the peak year of OD, there were 8.8 OD/100 000 population in the SSRI group and 3.8 OD/100 000 population in the TCA group. Trends over the study period showed increasing SSRI and 'other' newer antidepressant prescription rates and decreases for TCA and monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOI). However, the risks of OD in all drug classes were similar and OD/100 000 prescriptions trended downwards for all drug classes over time. 1833 VPIC calls were analysed. Calls relating to SSRIs were the most common yet SSRI OD was associated with significantly fewer symptoms (p < 0.001) and fewer patients with Poisoning Severity Score classifications of moderate or severe (p < 0.01). Antidepressant OD patterns are changing. Antidepressant OD incidence is following prescribing trends. The risk of OD is similar for all drug classes. Absolute numbers of OD and OD/100 000 prescriptions are decreasing for all drug classes.

A new time-independent formulation of fractional release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostermöller, Jennifer; Bönisch, Harald; Jöckel, Patrick; Engel, Andreas

2017-03-01

The fractional release factor (FRF) gives information on the amount of a halocarbon that is released at some point into the stratosphere from its source form to the inorganic form, which can harm the ozone layer through catalytic reactions. The quantity is of major importance because it directly affects the calculation of the ozone depletion potential (ODP). In this context time-independent values are needed which, in particular, should be independent of the trends in the tropospheric mixing ratios (tropospheric trends) of the respective halogenated trace gases. For a given atmospheric situation, such FRF values would represent a molecular property.We analysed the temporal evolution of FRF from ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model simulations for several halocarbons and nitrous oxide between 1965 and 2011 on different mean age levels and found that the widely used formulation of FRF yields highly time-dependent values. We show that this is caused by the way that the tropospheric trend is handled in the widely used calculation method of FRF.Taking into account chemical loss in the calculation of stratospheric mixing ratios reduces the time dependence in FRFs. Therefore we implemented a loss term in the formulation of the FRF and applied the parameterization of a mean arrival time to our data set.We find that the time dependence in the FRF can almost be compensated for by applying a new trend correction in the calculation of the FRF. We suggest that this new method should be used to calculate time-independent FRFs, which can then be used e.g. for the calculation of ODP.

Visual field progression in glaucoma: total versus pattern deviation analyses.

PubMed

Artes, Paul H; Nicolela, Marcelo T; LeBlanc, Raymond P; Chauhan, Balwantray C

2005-12-01

To compare visual field progression with total and pattern deviation analyses in a prospective longitudinal study of patients with glaucoma and healthy control subjects. A group of 101 patients with glaucoma (168 eyes) with early to moderately advanced visual field loss at baseline (average mean deviation [MD], -3.9 dB) and no clinical evidence of media opacity were selected from a prospective longitudinal study on visual field progression in glaucoma. Patients were examined with static automated perimetry at 6-month intervals for a median follow-up of 9 years. At each test location, change was established with event and trend analyses of total and pattern deviation. The event analyses compared each follow-up test to a baseline obtained from averaging the first two tests, and visual field progression was defined as deterioration beyond the 5th percentile of test-retest variability at three test locations, observed on three consecutive tests. The trend analyses were based on point-wise linear regression, and visual field progression was defined as statistically significant deterioration (P < 5%) worse than -1 dB/year at three locations, confirmed by independently omitting the last and the penultimate observation. The incidence and the time-to-progression were compared between total and pattern deviation analyses. To estimate the specificity of the progression analyses, identical criteria were applied to visual fields obtained in 102 healthy control subjects, and the rate of visual field improvement was established in the patients with glaucoma and the healthy control subjects. With both event and trend methods, pattern deviation analyses classified approximately 15% fewer eyes as having progressed than did the total deviation analyses. In eyes classified as progressing by both the total and pattern deviation methods, total deviation analyses tended to detect progression earlier than the pattern deviation analyses. A comparison of the changes observed in MD and the visual fields' general height (estimated by the 85th percentile of the total deviation values) confirmed that change in the glaucomatous eyes almost always comprised a diffuse component. Pattern deviation analyses of progression may therefore underestimate the true amount of glaucomatous visual field progression. Pattern deviation analyses of visual field progression may underestimate visual field progression in glaucoma, particularly when there is no clinical evidence of increasing media opacity. Clinicians should have access to both total and pattern deviation analyses to make informed decisions on visual field progression in glaucoma.

News trends and web search query of HIV/AIDS in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Chiu, Alice P Y; Lin, Qianying; He, Daihai

2017-01-01

The HIV epidemic in Hong Kong has worsened in recent years, with major contributions from high-risk subgroup of men who have sex with men (MSM). Internet use is prevalent among the majority of the local population, where they sought health information online. This study examines the impacts of HIV/AIDS and MSM news coverage on web search query in Hong Kong. Relevant news coverage about HIV/AIDS and MSM from January 1st, 2004 to December 31st, 2014 was obtained from the WiseNews databse. News trends were created by computing the number of relevant articles by type, topic, place of origin and sub-populations. We then obtained relevant search volumes from Google and analysed causality between news trends and Google Trends using Granger Causality test and orthogonal impulse function. We found that editorial news has an impact on "HIV" Google searches on HIV, with the search term popularity peaking at an average of two weeks after the news are published. Similarly, editorial news has an impact on the frequency of "AIDS" searches two weeks after. MSM-related news trends have a more fluctuating impact on "MSM" Google searches, although the time lag varies anywhere from one week later to ten weeks later. This infodemiological study shows that there is a positive impact of news trends on the online search behavior of HIV/AIDS or MSM-related issues for up to ten weeks after. Health promotional professionals could make use of this brief time window to tailor the timing of HIV awareness campaigns and public health interventions to maximise its reach and effectiveness.

Trends of Thyroid Cancer in Israel: 1980–2012

PubMed Central

Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing worldwide, while mortality from thyroid cancer is stable or decreasing. Consequently, survival rates are rising. We describe time trends in the incidence, mortality, and 5-year survival of thyroid cancer in Israel in 1980–2012, in light of the global trends. Methods: Israel National Cancer Registry database provided information regarding thyroid cancer incidence and vital status, which enabled computation of survival rates. The Central Bureau of Statistics database provided information on thyroid cancer mortality. Incidence and mortality rates were age-adjusted and presented by population group (Jews/Arabs) and gender. Relative 5-year survival rates which account for the general population survival in the corresponding time period were presented by population group and gender. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess incidence trends over time. Results: In 1980–2012 significant increases in the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed, with an annual percent change (APC) range of 3.98–6.93, driven almost entirely by papillary carcinoma (APCs 5.75–8.86), while rates of other types of thyroid cancer remained stable or decreased. Furthermore, higher rates of early detection were noted. In 1980–2012, a modest reduction in thyroid cancer mortality was observed in Jewish women (APC −1.07) with no substantial change in Jewish men. The 5-year relative survival after thyroid cancer diagnosis has increased to ≥90% in both population groups and both genders. Conclusions: The Israeli secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence (increasing), mortality (mostly stable), and survival (modestly increasing) closely follow reported global trends. PMID:26886958

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis

PubMed Central

Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-01-01

Introduction Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. Aim To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends© (GT©). Materials and Methods GT© were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. Results The search volume measured over the time span noted the term “Dental caries” to be the most searched in Japan, “Gingivitis” in Jordan, “Oral Cancer” in Taiwan, “No Teeth” in Australia, “HIV symptoms” in Zimbabwe, “Broken Teeth” in United Kingdom, “Cleft palate” in Philippines, “Toothache” in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the “Gingivitis” with highest search volume. Conclusion The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques. PMID:29207825

Reduction in outpatient antibiotic sales for pre-school children: interrupted time series analysis of weekly antibiotic sales data in Sweden 1992-2002.

PubMed

Högberg, Liselotte; Oke, Thimothy; Geli, Patricia; Lundborg, Cecilia Stålsby; Cars, Otto; Ekdahl, Karl

2005-07-01

The aim of this study was to use detailed weekly data on outpatient antibiotic sales for pre-school children in Sweden to test for the significance of trends during 1992-2002. We also report on the special features found in weekly antibiotic data, and how the interrupted time series (ITS) design can adjust for this. Weekly data on the total number of dispensed outpatient antibiotic prescriptions to pre-school children were studied, as well as the individual subgroups commonly used to treat respiratory tract infections in children: narrow-spectrum penicillins, broad-spectrum penicillins and macrolides. In parallel, monthly data of paracetamol sales of paediatric dosages were analysed to reflect trends in symptomatic treatment. An ITS model controlling for seasonality and autocorrelation was used to examine the datasets for significant level and trend shifts. A significant increase in mean and change in level could be found in the total antibiotic data in 1997, also reflected in broad-spectrum penicillin data where a similar trend break occurred in 1996. For macrolides, a trend break with a decrease in mean was noted in 1996, but no trend breaks were found in narrow-spectrum penicillin data. In contrast to the general decreasing trends in antibiotic sales, the yearly over-the-counter sales of paracetamol in paediatric preparations increased during the same period, with no identified trend breaks. The overall decrease in antibiotic sales and increase in paediatric paracetamol sales might suggest that symptomatic treatment in the home has increased, as antibiotics are less commonly prescribed.

Trends in surface-water quality during implementation of best-management practices in Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koerkle, Edward H.

2000-01-01

Analyses of water samples collected over a 5-year period (1993-98) in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins during implementation of agricultural best-management practices (BMP’s) indicate statistically significant trends in the concentrations of several nutrient species and in nonfilterable residue (suspended solids). The strongest trends identified were those indicated by a more than 50- percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus and total residue in base flow in the two streams. Analyses of stormflow samples showed a 31-percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentration of total phosphorus in Mill Creek and a 54-percent decrease in total nonfilterable residue in Muddy Run. A 58-percent increase in the flow-adjusted concentration of total ammonia nitrogen in stormflow was found at Muddy Run.Although the effects of a specific BMP on the indicated trends is uncertain, results of statistical trend tests of the data suggest that stream fencing, possibly in concert with other practices, such as stream crossings for livestock, barnyard runoff control, manure-storage facilities, and rotational grazing, was effective in improving water quality during base flow and probably low to moderate stormflow conditions. Additional improvements in water quality in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins seems likely as the implementation of BMP’s is expected to continue. Thus, the full effect of BMP implementation in the two basins may not be observed for some time.

Trends in job satisfaction among German nurses from 1990 to 2012.

PubMed

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2016-04-01

Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. We used 1990-2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas that of doctors and other health care workers increased by 14.4% and 1%, respectively. The decline for part-time nurses (13%) was more pronounced than that for full-time nurses (3%). At the same time, nurses' pay rose by only 3.8% compared to a 23.8% increase for doctors. The steady decline in nurses' job satisfaction over the last two decades may be attributable to the multiple reforms and associated policy changes that generally disadvantaged nurses. Contributing factors to job satisfaction decline include lower pay and the demanding and strenuous work environment. Irrespective of the reason, health services researchers, leaders, and policy makers should investigate the reasons for this decline given the forecast growth in work load and complexity of care. Supportive policies for nurses would help enhance the quality and sustainability of German health care. © The Author(s) 2015.

Systematic Reviews and Clinical Trials in Rehabilitation: Comprehensive Analyses of Publication Trends.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago S

2016-11-01

To analyze publication trends of clinical trials (CTs) and systematic reviews (SRs) in rehabilitation. PubMed searches were performed with appropriate combinations of Medical Subject Headings. All entries until December 2013, and their yearly distributions since 1981 (when the first rehabilitation SR was identified), were retrieved. After the initial data visualization, data analyses were narrowed to specific periods. Linear regression techniques analyzed the growth of publications and their relative percentages over time. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Although not observed for SRs, CTs have grown at a much higher rate in rehabilitation than in the broader health/medical field-more than twice the difference for both periods analyzed (1989-2001, 2001-2013). Rehabilitation journals published about 20% or less of the rehabilitation SRs and CTs, and no significant increases were observed over time (P>.05; 2001-2013). Neurologic conditions, particularly cerebrovascular, were the most addressed by rehabilitation SRs and CTs, while differences between neurologic and other groups of conditions typically widened over time (eg, more than doubled between neurologic and musculoskeletal conditions in 15y). While publications of CTs are increasing at a much higher rate within rehabilitation than within broader health care, further research is warranted to explain why this trend is not being followed by SRs, particularly those with meta-analysis. Similarly, research might determine whether the (growing) differences in the publications of rehabilitation SRs and CTs across groups of conditions are justified by clinical or population need. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of Maowusu Sandy Land Vegetation Coverage Change Based on Modis Ndvi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Q.; Liu, H.; Lin, Y.; Han, R.

2018-04-01

This paper selected 2006-2016 MODIS NDVI data with a spatial resolution of 500m and time resolution of 16d, got the 11 years' time series NDVI data of Maowusu sandy land through mosaicking, projection transformation, cutting process in batch. Analysed the spatial and temporal distribution and variation characteristics of vegetation cover in year, season and month time scales by maximum value composite, and unary linear regression analysis. Then, we combined the meteorological data of 33 sites around the sandy area, analysed the response characteristics of vegetation cover change to temperature and precipitation through Pearson correlation coefficient. Studies have shown that: (1) The NDVI value has a stable increase trend, which rate is 0.0075 / a. (2) The vegetation growth have significantly difference in four seasons, the NDVI value of summer > autumn > spring > winter. (3) The NDVI value change trend is conformed to the gauss normal distribution in a year, and it comes to be largest in August, its green season is in April, and yellow season is in the middle of November, the growth period is about 220 d. (4) The vegetation has a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest, most part is slightly improved, and Etuokeqianqi improved significantly. (5) The correlation indexes of annual NDVI with temperature and precipitation are -0.2178 and 0.6309, the vegetation growth is mainly affected by precipitation. In this study, a complete vegetation cover analysis and evaluation model for sandy land is established. It has important guiding significance for the sand ecological environment protection.

Have we left some behind? Trends in socio-economic inequalities in breastfeeding initiation: a population-based epidemiological surveillance study.

PubMed

Nickel, Nathan C; Martens, Patricia J; Chateau, Dan; Brownell, Marni D; Sarkar, Joykrishna; Goh, Chun Yan; Burland, Elaine; Taylor, Carole; Katz, Alan

2014-07-31

Breastfeeding is associated with improved health. Surveillance data show that breastfeeding initiation rates have increased; however, limited work has examined trends in socio-economic inequalities in initiation. The study's research question was whether socio-economic inequalities in breastfeeding initiation have changed over the past 20 years. This population-based study is a project within PATHS Equity for Children. Analyses used hospital discharge data for Manitoba mother-infant dyads with live births, 1988-2011 (n=316,027). Income quintiles were created, each with ~20% of dyads. Three-year, overall and by-quintile breastfeeding initiation rates were estimated for Manitoba and two hospitals. Age-adjusted rates were estimated for Manitoba. Rates were modelled using generalized linear models. Three measures, rate ratios (RRs), rate differences (RDs) and concentration indices, assessed inequality at each time point. We also compared concentration indices with Gini coefficients to assess breastfeeding inequality vis-à-vis income inequality. Trend analyses tested for changes over time. Manitoba and Hospital A initiation rates increased; Hospital B rates did not change. Significant inequalities existed in nearly every period, across all three measures: RRs, RDs and concentration indices. RRs and concentration indices suggested little to no change in inequality from 1988 to 2011. RDs for Manitoba (comparing initiation in the highest to lowest income quintiles) did not change significantly over time. RDs decreased for Hospital A, suggesting decreasing socio-economic inequalities in breastfeeding; RDs increased for Hospital B. Income inequality increased significantly in Manitoba during the study period. Overall breastfeeding initiation rates can improve while inequality persists or worsens.

Performance of some biotic indices in the real variable world: a case study at different spatial scales in North-Western Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Tataranni, Mariella; Lardicci, Claudio

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyse the variability of four different benthic biotic indices (AMBI, BENTIX, H', M-AMBI) in two marine coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea. In each coastal area, 36 replicates were randomly selected according to a hierarchical sampling design, which allowed estimating the variance components of the indices associated with four different spatial scales (ranging from metres to kilometres). All the analyses were performed at two different sampling periods in order to evaluate if the observed trends were consistent over the time. The variance components of the four indices revealed complex trends and different patterns in the two sampling periods. These results highlighted that independently from the employed index, a rigorous and appropriate sampling design taking into account different scales should always be used in order to avoid erroneous classifications and to develop effective monitoring programs.

Exposure-response evaluations of venetoclax efficacy and safety in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Parikh, Apurvasena; Gopalakrishnan, Sathej; Freise, Kevin J; Verdugo, Maria E; Menon, Rajeev M; Mensing, Sven; Salem, Ahmed Hamed

2018-04-01

Exposure-response analyses were performed for a venetoclax monotherapy study in 106 patients with varying subtypes of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (NCT01328626). Logistic regression, time-to-event, and progression-free survival (PFS) analyses were used to evaluate the relationship between venetoclax exposure, NHL subtype and response, PFS, or occurrence of serious adverse events. Trends for small increases in the probability of response with increasing venetoclax exposures were identified, and became more evident when assessed by NHL subtype. Trends in exposure-PFS were shown for the mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) subtype, but not other subtypes. There was no increase in the probability of experiencing a serious adverse event with increasing exposure. Overall, the results indicate that venetoclax doses of 800-1200 mg as a single agent may be appropriate to maximize efficacy in MCL, follicular lymphoma, and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma subtypes with no expected negative impact on safety.

Intra-national variation in trends in overweight and leisure time physical activities in The Netherlands since 1980: stratification according to sex, age and urbanisation degree.

PubMed

Gast, G C M; Gast, G-C M; Frenken, F J M; van Leest, L A T M; Wendel-Vos, G C W; Bemelmans, W J E

2007-03-01

To investigate time trends in overweight and Leisure Time Physical Activities (LTPA) in The Netherlands since 1980. Intra-national differences were examined stratified for sex, age and urbanisation degree. We used a random sample of about 140,000 respondents aged 20-69 years from the Health Interview Survey (Nethhis) and subsequent Permanent Survey on Living Conditions (POLS). Self-reported data on weight and height and demographic characteristics were gathered through interviews (every year) and data on LTPA were collected by self-administered questionnaires (1990-1997, 2001-2004). Linear regression analysis was performed for trend analyses. During 1981-2004, mean body mass index (BMI) increased significantly by 1.0 kg/m(2) (average per year=0.05 kg/m(2)). Trends were similar across sex and different degrees of urbanisation, but varied across age groups. In 20-to 39-year-old women, mean BMI increased by 1.7 kg/m(2), which was more than in older age groups (P

Accounting for variation in designing greenhouse experiments with special reference to greenhouses containing plants on conveyor systems

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There are a number of unresolved issues in the design of experiments in greenhouses. They include whether statistical designs should be used and, if so, which designs should be used. Also, are there thigmomorphogenic or other effects arising from the movement of plants on conveyor belts within a greenhouse? A two-phase, single-line wheat experiment involving four tactics was conducted in a conventional greenhouse and a fully-automated phenotyping greenhouse (Smarthouse) to investigate these issues. Results and discussion Analyses of our experiment show that there was a small east–west trend in total area of the plants in the Smarthouse. Analyses of the data from three multiline experiments reveal a large north–south trend. In the single-line experiment, there was no evidence of differences between trios of lanes, nor of movement effects. Swapping plant positions during the trial was found to decrease the east–west trend, but at the cost of increased error variance. The movement of plants in a north–south direction, through a shaded area for an equal amount of time, nullified the north–south trend. An investigation of alternative experimental designs for equally-replicated experiments revealed that generally designs with smaller blocks performed best, but that (nearly) trend-free designs can be effective when blocks are larger. Conclusions To account for variation in microclimate in a greenhouse, using statistical design and analysis is better than rearranging the position of plants during the experiment. For the relocation of plants to be successful requires that plants spend an equal amount of time in each microclimate, preferably during comparable growth stages. Even then, there is no evidence that this will be any more precise than statistical design and analysis of the experiment, and the risk is that it will not be successful at all. As for statistical design and analysis, it is best to use either (i) smaller blocks, (ii) (nearly) trend-free arrangement of treatments with a linear trend term included in the analysis, or, as a last resort, (iii) blocks of several complete rows with trend terms in the analysis. Also, we recommend that the greenhouse arrangement parallel that in the Smarthouse, but with randomization where appropriate. PMID:23391282

Hydronephrosis in patients with cervical cancer: an assessment of morbidity and survival

PubMed Central

Patel, Krishna; Foster, Nathan R.; Kumar, Amanika; Grudem, Megan; Longenbach, Sherri; Bakkum-Gamez, Jamie; Haddock, Michael; Dowdy, Sean; Jatoi, Aminah

2015-01-01

Purpose Hydronephrosis is a frequently observed but understudied complication in patients with cervical cancer. To better characterize hydronephrosis in cervical cancer patients, the current study sought (1) to describe hydronephrosis-associated morbidity and (2) to analyze the prognostic effect of hydronephrosis in patients with a broad range of cancer stages over time. Methods The Mayo Clinic Tumor Registry was interrogated for all invasive cervical cancer patients seen at the Mayo Clinic from 2008 through 2013 in Rochester, Minnesota; these patients’ medical records were then reviewed in detail. Results Two hundred seventy-nine cervical cancer patients with a median age of 49 years and a range of cancer stages were included. Sixty-five patients (23 %) were diagnosed with hydronephrosis at some point during their disease course. In univariate analyses, hydronephrosis was associated with advanced cancer stage (p<0.0001), squamous histology (p=0.0079), and nonsurgical cancer treatment (p=0.0039). In multivariate analyses, stage and tumor histology were associated with hydronephrosis. All but one patient underwent stent placement or urinary diversion; hydronephrosis-related morbidity included pain, urinary tract infections, nausea and vomiting, renal failure, and urinary tract bleeding. In landmark univariate survival analyses, hydronephrosis was associated with worse survival at all time points. In landmark multivariate analyses (adjusted for patient age, stage, cancer treatment, and tumor histology), hydronephrosis was associated with a trend toward worse survival over time (hazard ratios ranged from 1.47 to 4.69). Conclusion Hydronephrosis in cervical cancer patients is associated with notable morbidity. It is also associated with trends toward worse survival—even if it occurs after the original cancer diagnosis. PMID:25339620

Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

2017-06-01

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the important characteristics of internal variability, can result in more accurate uncertainty statements about trends.

Heavy smoking rate trends and related factors in Korean occupational groups: analysis of KNHANES 2007-2012 data.

PubMed

Kim, Bo-Guen; Pang, Do-Dam; Park, Young-Jun; Lee, Jong-In; Kim, Hyoung-Ryoul; Myong, Jun-Pyo; Jang, Tae-Won

2015-11-12

The present study was designed to investigate the smoking and heavy smoking trends and identify possible related factors among Korean male workers from 2007 to 2012 by occupational groups. The data were derived from the fourth (2007-2009) and fifth (2010-2012) waves of the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). Occupational groups were categorised into three groups, which were non-manual, manual and service and sales groups. Age-adjusted prevalence rates of smoking and heavy smoking (>20 cigarettes/day) in men aged 25-64 years were calculated. Factors associated with heavy smoking were investigated using logistic regression analyses. Smoking rate in manual workers decreased gradually over time (p for trend <0.0001). Smoking rate was higher in manual than non-manual workers, but the difference reduced over time (p for trend <0.0001). Heavy smoking rate decreased from 2007 to 2012 (p for trend <0.0001). Heavy smoking rate was higher in manual than non-manual workers; however, this difference increased over time. Stress, depressive mood and long working hours (≥60 h/week) were associated with heavy smoking. Antismoking policy should focus on current and heavy smokers. Workplace antismoking programmes should consider working hours and stress, especially in manual workers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Renal transplant among type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients in Spain: A population-based study from 2002 to 2013.

PubMed

López-de-Andrés, Ana; de Miguel-Yanes, José M; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Méndez-Bailón, Manuel; González-Pascual, Montserrat; de Miguel-Díez, Javier; Salinero-Fort, Miguel A; Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; Jiménez-Trujillo, Isabel; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo

2017-01-01

To describe trends in the rates and short-term outcomes of renal transplants (RTx) among patients with or without diabetes in Spain (2002-2013). We used national hospital discharge data to select all hospital admissions for RTx. We divided the study period into four three-year periods. Rates were calculated stratified by diabetes status: type 1 diabetes (T1DM), type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and no-diabetes. We analyzed Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), post-transplant infections, in-hospital complications of RTx, rejection, in-hospital mortality and length of hospital stay. We identified 25,542 RTx. Rates of RTx increased significantly in T2DM patients over time (from 9.3 cases/100,000 in 2002/2004 to 13.3 cases/100,000 in 2011/2013), with higher rates among people with T2DM for all time periods. T2DM patients were older and had higher CCI values than T1DM and non-diabetic patients (CCI≥1, 31.4%, 20.4% and 21.5%, respectively; P<0.05). Time trend analyses showed significant increases in infections, RTx-associated complications and rejection for all groups (all P values<0.05). Infection rates were greater in people with T2DM (20.8%) and T1DM (23.5%) than in non-diabetic people (18.7%; P<0.05). Time trend analyses (2002-2013) showed significant decreases in mortality during admission for RTx (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.68-0.83). Diabetes was not associated with a higher in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.20, 95% CI 0.92-1.55). RTx rates were higher and increased over time at a higher rate among T2DM patients. Mortality decreased over time in all groups. Diabetes does not predict mortality during admission for RTx. Instituto Salud Carlos III and URJC-Banco Santander. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemyslaw; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P.B.; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G.; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; Van Strien, Arco; van Turnhout, Chris A.M.; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G.

2016-01-01

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Officer Career Development: Longitudinal Sample--Fiscal Year 1982

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-10-01

Those that wish to access the database to conduct additional analyses, link it to or combine it with other databases, enlarge the database for the...link it to or combine it with other databases, enlarge the database for the conduct of trend analyses, etc., will find this data dictionary an...analyses, link it to or combine it with other databases, enlarge the database for the conduct of trend analyses, etc., will find this data dictionary

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Zaba, B

2009-04-01

To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17-19 years for men and 16-19 years for women, AFM 21-24 years and 18-19 years, respectively, for the 1970-9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4-7 years for men and 0-2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Żaba, B

2009-01-01

Objectives: To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Methods: Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Results: Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17–19 years for men and 16–19 years for women, AFM 21–24 years and 18–19 years, respectively, for the 1970–9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4–7 years for men and 0–2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Conclusions: Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations. PMID:19307343

Direct medical costs of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in Shanghai, China: trends and projections.

PubMed

Wang, Shengnan; Petzold, Max; Cao, Junshan; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Weibing

2015-05-01

Few studies in China have focused on direct expenditures for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), making cost trends for CVDs uncertain. Epidemic modeling and forecasting may be essential for health workers and policy makers to reduce the cost burden of CVDs.To develop a time series model using Box-Jenkins methodology for a 15-year forecasting of CVD hospitalization costs in Shanghai.Daily visits and medical expenditures for CVD hospitalizations between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 were analyzed. Data from 2012 were used for further analyses, including yearly total health expenditures and expenditures per visit for each disease, as well as per-visit-per-year medical costs of each service for CVD hospitalizations. Time series analyses were performed to determine the long-time trend of total direct medical expenditures for CVDs and specific expenditures for each disease, which were used to forecast expenditures until December 31, 2030.From 2008 to 2012, there were increased yearly trends for both hospitalizations (from 250,354 to 322,676) and total costs (from US $ 388.52 to 721.58 million per year in 2014 currency) in Shanghai. Cost per CVD hospitalization in 2012 averaged US $ 2236.29, with the highest being for chronic rheumatic heart diseases (US $ 4710.78). Most direct medical costs were spent on medication. By the end of 2030, the average cost per visit per month for all CVDs was estimated to be US $ 4042.68 (95% CI: US $ 3795.04-4290.31) for all CVDs, and the total health expenditure for CVDs would reach over US $1.12 billion (95% CI: US $ 1.05-1.19 billion) without additional government interventions.Total health expenditures for CVDs in Shanghai are estimated to be higher in the future. These results should be a valuable future resource for both researchers on the economic effects of CVDs and for policy makers.

Interrupted Aspirations: Research and Policy on Gitano Education in a Time of Recession, in Spain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bereményi, Bálint Ábel; Carrasco, Sílvia

2015-01-01

During the past decade, Gitano students' school success and its cultural, social and emotional consequences have been largely unexplored, particularly in a new context: the deep economic crisis in Spain. This study reviews and analyses the evolution of the research production and the changing contexts of policy trends affecting the "Roma…

Conversion to pine: Changes in timing and magnitude of high and low flows.

Treesearch

Yusuf Serengil; Wayne T. Swank; Mark S. Riedel; James M. Vose

2011-01-01

Understanding watershed responses to extreme events is important for assessing potential impacts of floods, droughts, episodic pollution, and other external driving variables on watershed resources. In this study, we combine trend and frequency analyses with paired watershed techniques to evaluate the long-term high- and low-flow data from Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory...

Consumption of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age: the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Nooyens, Astrid C J; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; van Gelder, Boukje M; van Boxtel, Martin P J; Verschuren, W M Monique

2014-02-01

Accelerated cognitive decline increases the risk of dementia. Slowing down the rate of cognitive decline leads to the preservation of cognitive functioning in the elderly, who can live independently for a longer time. Alcohol consumption may influence the rate of cognitive decline. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the associations between the total consumption of alcoholic beverages and different types of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age. In 2613 men and women of the Doetinchem Cohort Study, aged 43-70 years at baseline (1995-2002), cognitive function (global cognitive function and the domains memory, speed and flexibility) was assessed twice, with a 5-year time interval. In linear regression analyses, the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages was analysed in relation to cognitive decline, adjusting for confounders. We observed that, in women, the total consumption of alcoholic beverages was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function over a 5-year period (P for trend = 0·02), while no association was observed in men. Regarding the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages in men and women together, red wine consumption was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function (P for trend < 0·01) as well as memory (P for trend < 0·01) and flexibility (P for trend = 0·03). Smallest declines were observed at a consumption of about 1·5 glasses of red wine per d. No other types of alcoholic beverages were associated with cognitive decline. In conclusion, only (moderate) red wine consumption was consistently associated with less strong cognitive decline. Therefore, it is most likely that non-alcoholic substances in red wine are responsible for any cognition-preserving effects.

Increased availability of paracetamol in Sweden and incidence of paracetamol poisoning: using laboratory data to increase validity of a population-based registry study.

PubMed

Gedeborg, Rolf; Svennblad, Bodil; Holm, Lennart; Sjögren, Hans; Bardage, Carola; Personne, Mark; Sjöberg, Gunilla; Feltelius, Nils; Zethelius, Björn

2017-05-01

To estimate the incidence trend and outcome of paracetamol poisoning, in relation to increased availability of paracetamol from non-pharmacy outlets in 2009. Patients' serum paracetamol results over 14 years (2000-2013) from 20 (out of 21) regions in Sweden were linked to national registers of hospital care, cause of death, and prescriptions. Paracetamol poisonings were defined by serum paracetamol levels, hospital diagnoses, or cause of death. The change in incidence of poisonings following increased availability of paracetamol was analysed by using segmental regression of time series. Of the 12 068 paracetamol poisonings, 85% were classified as intentional self-harm. Following increased availability from non-pharmacy outlets, there was a 40.5% increase in the incidence of paracetamol poisoning, from 11.5/100 000 in 2009 to 16.2/100 000 in 2013. Regression analyses indicated a change in the trend (p < 0.0001) but not an immediate jump in the incidence (p = 0.5991) following the increased availability. Adjusting for trends in hospital episodes for self-harm, suicides, and the sales volume of paracetamol did not influence the result. All-cause mortality at 30 days (3.2%) did not change over time. The incidence of paracetamol poisoning in Sweden has increased since 2009, contrasting the decreased incidence in the period of 2007-2009. The change in trend was temporally associated with the introduction of availability of paracetamol from non-pharmacy outlets but did not appear to be related to sales volume of paracetamol or general trends in self-harm or suicides. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Italian cancer figures, report 2009: Cancer trend (1998-2005).

PubMed

2009-01-01

the aim of this collaborative project of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (Airtum; www.registri-tumori.it) was to analyse cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy with special reference to the period 1998-2005. the study was based on the Airtum database, which collects and checks data from all the Airtum registries. The present study was based on 20 general and 2 specific populationbased cancer registries. Overall, we analysed 818,017 incident cases and 342,444 cancer deaths for the time period 1998-2005. Seventy percent of the analysed population was from the North of Italy, 17% from the Centre, and 13% from the South. A joinpoint analysis was carried out to detect the point in time where the trend changed; trends are described by means of the estimated annual percent change (APC), with appropriate 95% confidence intervals. Crude and standardized incidence and mortality rates were computed for 36 cancer sites, for both sexes, three age-classes (0-49, 50-69 and 70+ years), and three geographic areas (North, Centre, and South of Italy). Specific chapters are devoted to long-term trends (1986-2005), differences among age-groups, and international comparisons. In 1998-2005, cancer mortality for all sites showed a statistically significant decrease among men (APC - 1.7) and women (- 0.8). Mortality significantly decreased in both sexes for stomach cancer, rectum cancer, liver cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma. Mortality also decreased among men for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, and leukaemia. Among women mortality decreased for cancers of the colon, bone, breast, and uterus not otherwise specified. An increase in mortality was recorded for lung cancer among women (+1.5) and melanoma among men (+2.6). Incidence for all cancers together (except non-melanoma skin cancers) increased among men (APC +0.3) and remained stable among women. Cancer sites which showed increasing incidence were thyroid and melanoma in both sexes, colon, testis, soft tissue among men, and lung and Hodgkin lymphoma among women. For several cancer sites incidence decreased, e.g., stomach and Kaposi sarcoma (men and women), upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, urinary bladder, myeloma and leukaemia (men), gallbladder, cervix uteri and ovary (women). this monograph presents a detailed description of cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy. It is based on the Italian Network of Cancer Registries which presently covers about one-third of the whole Italian population. This monograph is a useful scientific tool for all those, be they researchers or public health administrators, who are involved in the fields of cancer prevention and care.

Natural and anthropogenic phenomena affecting the historical landslide trend in the Subappennino Dauno (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lonigro, Teresa; Santaloia, Francesca; Polemio, Maurizio

2014-05-01

The aim of this work is to present a methodology, based both on the use methods of time series analyses and of geospatial analyses of monthly climatic data (rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature), annual maximum of short-duration rainfall (from 1 hour to 5 days), historical modification of land use, and population variations in order to characterise the effects of these variables on the occurrence of landsliding in Daunia area, located on the eastern margin of the Southern Apennines thrust belt (southern Italy). Rock strata (mainly) interbedded with clayey marls, clays and silty-clays outcrop in this area. Due to the intense strain history, these successions are found to be from stratified to deeply fractured, up to be disrupted and floating as blocks in a clayey matrix. In turn, the clay units are laminated to intensely fissured and characterised by very poor mechanical properties (Santaloia et al., 2012). The statistical analyses deal with data coming from published databases, integrated by public and private documents, referring to a wide time span. Climate data records from 1877 to 2008 were elaborated, in particular the data coming from sixteen rainfall gauges, ten of which were also thermometric. Moreover, some monthly indices of rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, temperature, and landslide occurrence were introduced to simplify the analysis of parameters, characterised by spatial and temporal variability. The population records are from the 19th century up to now while the time period of reference for the land use data is from 1930 up to now. As concerns the landslide events, they were collected from 1918 to 2006. The main source of these records is the AVI database, an existing Italian database that collects data about damaging floods and landslides from 1918 to 1996. This dataset was integrated up to 2006 by consulting newspapers, scientific publications, technical reports, written by the researchers of the CNR-IRPI for the Civil Protection, and also documents belonging to a research project (PS_119; Cotecchia et al. 2010). According to the landslide data collected, the landslide events resulted to be 175 in the study area. The trend analyses show that the landslide occurrence was increased with the time, despite of the rainfall and temperature data are not prone to landsliding. As a matter of fact, the trend of both the monthly rainfall and the rainfall intensity decreases, and the temperature and the wet days show a positive trend during the period of reference. The trend of the short-duration rainfall results generally to decrease. Not existing an evident relationship between climate variability and the increase of landslide occurrence, some other factors should be considered, as, for instance, the poor mechanical soil properties, the role of anthropogenic modifications and the mismanagement of risk-prone areas. In this regards, the preliminary results obtained from the data analyses of the land use and the populations could partly justify the increasing trend of landslide occurrence. More details on previous results of this research activity were recently published (Cotecchia et al., 2010; Polemio and Lonigro, 2011 and 2013; Santaloia et al., 2012). References Cotecchia F., Santaloia F., Lollino P., C. Vitone, G. Mitaritonna (2010) "Deterministic landslide hazard assessment at regional scale". Geoflorida 2010, : 3130-3139. Santaloia F, Cotecchia F, Vitone C (2012) "Applicazione dei metodi avanzati al fronte appenninico apulo-lucano: analisi di I livello. In: Cascini L. (Ed) "Criteri di zonazione della suscettibilità e della pericolosità da frane innescate da eventi estremi (piogge e sisma)"; 130-140, Padova:Composervice srl. Polemio M., Lonigro T. (2011) "Variabilità climatica e ricorrenza delle calamità idrogeologiche in Puglia". In: "Le modificazioni climatiche e i rischi naturali", Polemio M. (Ed.), CNR IRPI, Bari, pp. 13-16. Polemio M., Lonigro T. (2013) "Climate variability and landslide occurrence in Apulia (southern Italy)". In: C. Margottini et al. (eds.), Landslide Science and Practice, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 4: 37-41.

Ecological stages of the Venice Lagoon analysed using landing time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libralato, Simone; Pranovi, Fabio; Raicevich, Saša; Da Ponte, Filippo; Giovanardi, Otello; Pastres, Roberto; Torricelli, Patrizia; Mainardi, Danilo

2004-11-01

The time series of landings in the Venice Lagoon from 1945 to 2001 were analysed with the aim of explaining the ecosystem changes occurred. The comparative analysis of the total landings and mean Trophic Level (mTL) time series allowed to identify four different stages in the lagoon ecosystem. The first period, from 1945 to 1973, was characterised by increasing trends in the landings and their mTL. The second one, from 1974 to 1989, showed a decrease in the landings but still an increase in the mTL. The third period, from 1990 to 1998, had again a positive trend in the landings, but the mTL showed a sharp decline. After 1998, a slight decreasing trend in both mTL and landings was observed: the analyses of the artisanal fishery landings only date back to 1995 this effect. The presence of four distinct periods was also confirmed by the analysis of the trends of other indices estimated using landings data: the Fishing in Balance index (FiB), the Trophic Efficiency (TE) and the Pelagic on Demersal landings ratio (P/D). In the first period, the increasing fishing pressure, along with no evidence of ecosystem crisis, suggested that an increased nutrient discharge was supporting it; analogously, the bottom-up effects had driven the dynamics of the ecosystem also in the second period, when the decrease in nutrient loads caused a shift of the primary producers from planktonic to macrobenthic. The spreading of the Manila clam, a non-native species, and the development of its massive mechanical exploitation have been the main forces driving the ecosystem during the third period, for which, however, no signs of crises were detected. The fourth period showed evidence of the "fishing down the food web" effect. Possible causes of such an effect were investigated and allowed us to conclude that not overfishing, but the effects of mechanical harvesting of the Manila clam had caused relevant impacts on habitat and benthic communities, concluding that the present level of exploitation of the stock of Manila clam is not sustainable in the long term. Our findings were also compared with the general evolution of enclosed seas, subjected to high nutrient loads, fishing pressure and invasion by non-native species.

Trends and advances in food analysis by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

PubMed

Salihah, Nur Thaqifah; Hossain, Mohammad Mosharraf; Lubis, Hamadah; Ahmed, Minhaz Uddin

2016-05-01

Analyses to ensure food safety and quality are more relevant now because of rapid changes in the quantity, diversity and mobility of food. Food-contamination must be determined to maintain health and up-hold laws, as well as for ethical and cultural concerns. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), a rapid and inexpensive quantitative method to detect the presence of targeted DNA-segments in samples, helps in determining both accidental and intentional adulterations of foods by biological contaminants. This review presents recent developments in theory, techniques, and applications of RT-PCR in food analyses, RT-PCR addresses the limitations of traditional food analyses in terms of sensitivity, range of analytes, multiplexing ability, cost, time, and point-of-care applications. A range of targets, including species of plants or animals which are used as food ingredients, food-borne bacteria or viruses, genetically modified organisms, and allergens, even in highly processed foods can be identified by RT-PCR, even at very low concentrations. Microfluidic RT-PCR eliminates the separate sample-processing step to create opportunities for point-of-care analyses. We also cover the challenges related to using RT-PCR for food analyses, such as the need to further improve sample handling.

Calibrating the Ordovician Radiation of marine life: implications for Phanerozoic diversity trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, A. I.; Foote, M.

1996-01-01

It has long been suspected that trends in global marine biodiversity calibrated for the Phanerozoic may be affected by sampling problems. However, this possibility has not been evaluated definitively, and raw diversity trends are generally accepted at face value in macroevolutionary investigations. Here, we analyze a global-scale sample of fossil occurrences that allows us to determine directly the effects of sample size on the calibration of what is generally thought to be among the most significant global biodiversity increases in the history of life: the Ordovician Radiation. Utilizing a composite database that includes trilobites, brachiopods, and three classes of molluscs, we conduct rarefaction analyses to demonstrate that the diversification trajectory for the Radiation was considerably different than suggested by raw diversity time-series. Our analyses suggest that a substantial portion of the increase recognized in raw diversity depictions for the last three Ordovician epochs (the Llandeilian, Caradocian, and Ashgillian) is a consequence of increased sample size of the preserved and catalogued fossil record. We also use biometric data for a global sample of Ordovician trilobites, along with methods of measuring morphological diversity that are not biased by sample size, to show that morphological diversification in this major clade had leveled off by the Llanvirnian. The discordance between raw diversity depictions and more robust taxonomic and morphological diversity metrics suggests that sampling effects may strongly influence our perception of biodiversity trends throughout the Phanerozoic.

Evaluating Trends in Historical PM2.5 Element Concentrations by Reanalyzing a 15-Year Sample Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyslop, N. P.; White, W. H.; Trzepla, K.

2014-12-01

The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments) network monitors aerosol concentrations at 170 remote sites throughout the United States. Twenty-four-hour filter samples of particulate matter are collected every third day and analyzed for chemical composition. About 30 of the sites have operated continuously since 1988, and the sustained data record (http://views.cira.colostate.edu/web/) offers a unique window on regional aerosol trends. All elemental analyses have been performed by Crocker Nuclear Laboratory at the University of California in Davis, and sample filters collected since 1995 are archived on campus. The suite of reported elements has remained constant, but the analytical methods employed for their determination have evolved. For example, the elements Na - Mn were determined by PIXE until November 2001, then by XRF analysis in a He-flushed atmosphere through 2004, and by XRF analysis in vacuum since January 2005. In addition to these fundamental changes, incompletely-documented operational factors such as detector performance and calibration details have introduced variations in the measurements. Because the past analytical methods were non-destructive, the archived filters can be re-analyzed with the current analytical systems and protocols. The 15-year sample archives from Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Mount Rainier (MORA), and Point Reyes National Parks (PORE) were selected for reanalysis. The agreement between the new analyses and original determinations varies with element and analytical era. The graph below compares the trend estimates for all the elements measured by IMPROVE based on the original and repeat analyses; the elements identified in color are measured above the detection limit more than 90% of the time. The trend estimates are sensitive to the treatment of non-detect data. The original and reanalysis trends are indistinguishable (have overlapping confidence intervals) for most of the well-detected elements.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

The knowledge, attitudes and practices of wintersun vacationers to the Gambia toward prevention of malaria: is it really that bad?

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Each year clusters of imported malaria cases are observed in Dutch wintersun vacationers returning from The Gambia. To gain more insight in the travel health preparation and awareness of these travellers, the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of this travel group was studied by analysing the data of the Continuous Dutch Schiphol Airport Survey. Methods In the years 2002 to 2009 a questionnaire-based survey was conducted at the Dutch Schiphol Airport with the aim to study the KAP, i.e. accuracy of risk perception (“knowledge”), intended risk-avoiding behaviour (“attitude”) and use of personal protective measures and malaria chemoprophylaxis (“practice”) toward prevention malaria in travellers to The Gambia. Travellers to other high-risk destinations served as controls. Results The KAP of travellers to The Gambia toward prevention of malaria was significantly better than that observed in other travellers. Trend analyses indicated that attitude improved over time in both groups but knowledge did not change. Only in travellers to high-risk countries other than The Gambia significant increases in protection rates were observed over time. Conclusions The KAP of travellers to The Gambia toward prevention of malaria was better than that observed in travellers to destinations other than The Gambia. Trend analyses revealed a significant improvement of intended risk avoiding behaviour but not in protection rates or risk perception. PMID:24581328

Temporal trends in health-related quality of life after stroke: analysis from the South London Stroke Register 1995-2011.

PubMed

Sheldenkar, Anita; Crichton, Siobhan; Douiri, Abdel; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A; Chen, Ruoling

2014-08-01

Survival after stroke has dramatically increased in the last two decades as the treatment of stroke has improved. However, time-trend analyses of health-related quality of life in stroke patients covering this time period are still not well investigated. The study aims to examine temporal trends in mental and physical health-related quality of life of stroke survivors between the period of 1995 and 2011. First in a lifetime strokes were registered in the South London Stroke Register between 1995 and 2011. Using the Short Form-12 Health Survey, trends in self-reported health-related quality of life at one-year after stroke were assessed over a 17-year period using linear regression, adjusting for socio-demographics, risk factors, and case-mix variables. Analyses stratifying by age, gender, race-ethnicity, and functional impairment were also performed. The overall trends of mental and physical health-related quality of life scores at one-year after stroke remained relatively unchanged over the period 1995-2011. However, mental health-related quality of life scores significantly improved between the period of 1995-2007 [β = 0·94 (95% CI; 0·15 to 1·74), P = 0·02], after which scores deteriorated [β = -2·02 (-3·82 to -0·22), P = 0·03]. Physical health-related quality of life scores remained stable until 2007, after which scores declined [β = -1·63 (-3·25 to -0·01), P = 0·05]. Despite declining health-related quality of life trends within the general population, stroke survivors' overall health-related quality of life remained unchanged, possibly due to lower expectations of health among stroke survivors. However, in recent years there has been a significant unexplained decline in both physical and mental health-related quality of life, suggesting that despite stroke policy aims to improve health-related quality of life, more needs to be done to target this decline. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World Stroke Organization.

Crop Species Diversity Changes in the United States: 1978–2012

PubMed Central

Aguilar, Jonathan; Gramig, Greta G.; Hendrickson, John R.; Archer, David W.; Forcella, Frank; Liebig, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Anecdotal accounts regarding reduced US cropping system diversity have raised concerns about negative impacts of increasingly homogeneous cropping systems. However, formal analyses to document such changes are lacking. Using US Agriculture Census data, which are collected every five years, we quantified crop species diversity from 1978 to 2012, for the contiguous US on a county level basis. We used Shannon diversity indices expressed as effective number of crop species (ENCS) to quantify crop diversity. We then evaluated changes in county-level crop diversity both nationally and for each of the eight Farm Resource Regions developed by the National Agriculture Statistics Service. During the 34 years we considered in our analyses, both national and regional ENCS changed. Nationally, crop diversity was lower in 2012 than in 1978. However, our analyses also revealed interesting trends between and within different Resource Regions. Overall, the Heartland Resource Region had the lowest crop diversity whereas the Fruitful Rim and Northern Crescent had the highest. In contrast to the other Resource Regions, the Mississippi Portal had significantly higher crop diversity in 2012 than in 1978. Also, within regions there were differences between counties in crop diversity. Spatial autocorrelation revealed clustering of low and high ENCS and this trend became stronger over time. These results show that, nationally counties have been clustering into areas of either low diversity or high diversity. Moreover, a significant trend of more counties shifting to lower rather than to higher crop diversity was detected. The clustering and shifting demonstrates a trend toward crop diversity loss and attendant homogenization of agricultural production systems, which could have far-reaching consequences for provision of ecosystem system services associated with agricultural systems as well as food system sustainability. PMID:26308552

Validation of Spacecraft Active Cavity Radiometer Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Long Term Measurement Trends Using Proxy TSI Least Squares Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Robert Benjamin, III; Wilson, Robert S.

2003-01-01

Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

News trends and web search query of HIV/AIDS in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Chiu, Alice P. Y.; Lin, Qianying

2017-01-01

Background The HIV epidemic in Hong Kong has worsened in recent years, with major contributions from high-risk subgroup of men who have sex with men (MSM). Internet use is prevalent among the majority of the local population, where they sought health information online. This study examines the impacts of HIV/AIDS and MSM news coverage on web search query in Hong Kong. Methods Relevant news coverage about HIV/AIDS and MSM from January 1st, 2004 to December 31st, 2014 was obtained from the WiseNews databse. News trends were created by computing the number of relevant articles by type, topic, place of origin and sub-populations. We then obtained relevant search volumes from Google and analysed causality between news trends and Google Trends using Granger Causality test and orthogonal impulse function. Results We found that editorial news has an impact on “HIV” Google searches on HIV, with the search term popularity peaking at an average of two weeks after the news are published. Similarly, editorial news has an impact on the frequency of “AIDS” searches two weeks after. MSM-related news trends have a more fluctuating impact on “MSM” Google searches, although the time lag varies anywhere from one week later to ten weeks later. Conclusions This infodemiological study shows that there is a positive impact of news trends on the online search behavior of HIV/AIDS or MSM-related issues for up to ten weeks after. Health promotional professionals could make use of this brief time window to tailor the timing of HIV awareness campaigns and public health interventions to maximise its reach and effectiveness. PMID:28922376

Trend in active transportation to school among Swiss school children and its associated factors: three cross-sectional surveys 1994, 2000 and 2005

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Giving the rising trend in childhood obesity in many countries including Switzerland, strategies to increase physical activity such as promoting active school travel are important. Yet, little is known about time trends of active commuting in Swiss schoolchildren and factors associated with changes in walking and biking to school. Methods Between 1994 and 2005, information about mobility behaviour of children aged 6-14 years was collected within three Swiss population based national travel behaviour surveys. Mode of transport to school was reported for 4244 children. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess active school travel time trends and their influencing factors. Results More than 70% of Swiss children walked or biked to school. Nevertheless, the proportion of children biking to school decreased (p = 0.05, linear trend), predominately in urban areas, and motorized transportation increased since 1994 (p = 0.02). Distance to school did not change significantly over time but availability of bikes decreased (p < 0.001) and number of cars per household increased (p < 0.001). The association between survey year and bike use was significantly modified by living in an urban area (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.63 (0.44-0.90), 0.71 (0.49-1.03), respectively for 1994, 2000 and 2005) and by distance to school (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.65 (0.40-1.05), 0.50 (0.23-0.79) for the same years and for children who lived more than a mile away from school). Conclusions Programs to encourage safe biking and to limit car use as mode of transport to school are warranted to stop this trend. PMID:20398320

Trends in prevalence of leisure time physical activity and inactivity: results from Australian National Health Surveys 1989 to 2011.

PubMed

Chau, Josephine; Chey, Tien; Burks-Young, Sarah; Engelen, Lina; Bauman, Adrian

2017-12-01

To examine trends in leisure time physical activity and inactivity in Australians aged 15 years or older from 1989 to 2011. We used data from six Australian National Health Surveys conducted from 1989/90 to 2011/12 in which physical activity was assessed using comparable questions. Analyses examined trends in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and of inactivity (<30 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity). The proportion of sufficiently active adults was 39.2% in 1989 and 40.7% in 2011 with an overall declining trend of 0.2% per year (p=0.012). The prevalence of inactivity was 38.7% in 1989 and 37.3% in 2011; the overall time trend by year was stable (OR=0.999, p=0.242). In women, sufficient physical activity decreased by 0.3% per year from 35.5% in 1989 (p=0.025); inactivity increased from 39.5% by 0.3% per year (p=0.004). In men, sufficient physical activity prevalence was 43.1% in 1989 with a steady trend; inactivity decreased from 37.9% by 0.5% per year (p<0.0001). The prevalence of sufficient physical activity remains low and inactivity high. Women appear to be a key target group for intervention. Public health efforts have been ineffective over two decades for improving physical activity among Australian adults. Implications for public health: This research supports calls for a national physical activity action plan given the multitude of benefits from sufficient physical activity. Maintenance of consistent physical activity questions in future National Health Surveys will facilitate long term tracking of physical activity levels in the Australian population. © 2017 The Authors.

Sensitivity of bud burst in key tree species in the UK to recent climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abernethy, Rachel; Cook, Sally; Hemming, Deborah; McCarthy, Mark

2017-04-01

Analysing the relationship between the changing climate of the UK and the spatial and temporal distribution of spring bud burst plays an important role in understanding ecosystem functionality and predicting future phenological trends. The location and timing of bud burst of eleven species of trees alongside climatic factors such as, temperature, precipitation and hours of sunshine (photoperiod) were used to investigate: i. which species' bud burst timing experiences the greatest impact from a changing climate, ii. which climatic factor has the greatest influence on the timing of bud burst, and iii. whether the location of bud burst is influenced by climate variability. Winter heatwave duration was also analysed as part of an investigation into the relationship between temperature trends of a specific winter period and the following spring events. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical analysis tools were used to visualise spatial patterns and to analyse the phenological and climate data through regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests. Where there were areas that showed a strong positive or negative relationship between phenology and climate, satellite imagery was used to calculate a Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a Leaf Area Index (LAI) to further investigate the relationships found. It was expected that in the north of the UK, where bud burst tends to occur later in the year than in the south, that the bud bursts would begin to occur earlier due to increasing temperatures and increased hours of sunshine. However, initial results show that for some species, the bud burst timing tends to remain or become later in the year. Interesting results will be found when investigating the statistical significance between the changing location of the bud bursts and each climatic factor.

Time trends of persistent organic pollutants in Sweden during 1993-2007 and relation to age, gender, body mass index, breast-feeding and parity.

PubMed

Hardell, Elin; Carlberg, Michael; Nordström, Marie; van Bavel, Bert

2010-09-15

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are lipophilic chemicals that bioaccumulate. Most of them were resticted or banned in the 1970s and 1980s to protect human health and the environment. The main source for humans is dietary intake of dairy products, meat and fish. Little data exist on changes of the concentration of POPs in the Swedish population over time. To study if the concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDE, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and chlordanes have changed in the Swedish population during 1993-2007, and certain factors that may influence the concentrations. During 1993-2007 samples from 537 controls in different human cancer studies were collected and analysed. Background information such as body mass index, breast-feeding and parity was assessed by questionaires. Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to analyse the explanatory factors specimen (blood or adipose tissue), gender, BMI, total breast-feeding and parity in relation to POPs. Time trends for POPs were analysed using linear regression analysis, adjusted for specimen, gender, BMI and age. The concentration decreased for all POPs during 1993-2007. The annual change was statistically significant for the sum of PCBs -7.2%, HCB -8.8%, DDE -13.5% and the sum of chlordanes -10.3%. BMI and age were determinants of the concentrations. Cumulative breast-feeding >8 months gave statistically significantly lower concentrations for the sum of PCBs, DDE and the sum of chlordanes. Parity with >2 children yielded statistically significantly lower sum of PCBs. All the studied POPs decreased during the time period, probably due to restrictions of their use. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Trend analyses in the health behaviour in school-aged children study: methodological considerations and recommendations.

PubMed

Schnohr, Christina W; Molcho, Michal; Rasmussen, Mette; Samdal, Oddrun; de Looze, Margreet; Levin, Kate; Roberts, Chris J; Ehlinger, Virginie; Krølner, Rikke; Dalmasso, Paola; Torsheim, Torbjørn

2015-04-01

This article presents the scope and development of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study, reviews trend papers published on international HBSC data up to 2012 and discusses the efforts made to produce reliable trend analyses. The major goal of this article is to present the statistical procedures and analytical strategies for upholding high data quality, as well as reflections from the authors of this article on how to produce reliable trends based on an international study of the magnitude of the HBSC study. HBSC is an international cross-sectional study collecting data from adolescents aged 11-15 years, on a broad variety of health determinants and health behaviours. A number of methodological challenges have stemmed from the growth of the HBSC-study, in particular given that the study has a focus on monitoring trends. Some of those challenges are considered. When analysing trends, researchers must be able to assess whether a change in prevalence is an expression of an actual change in the observed outcome, whether it is a result of methodological artefacts, or whether it is due to changes in the conceptualization of the outcome by the respondents. The article present recommendations to take a number of the considerations into account. The considerations imply methodological challenges, which are core issues in undertaking trend analyses. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Representation of ideal figure size in Ebony magazine: a content analysis.

PubMed

Thompson-Brenner, Heather; Boisseau, Christina L; St Paul, Michelle S

2011-09-01

Studies examining trends over time in mainstream magazines observe decreases in women's figure size, and increases in figure exposure and amount of diet/exercise content. Little is known, however, regarding the content of African American magazines. Utilizing methods from classic studies, this investigation examined content in Ebony, a magazine with wide African American readership, from 1969 to 2008. We included the full content of N=462 issues, with a total of N=539 cover images of women, of which N=208 were full-body shots. Analyses indicated a curvilinear relationship between time and figure exposure, with a recent trend toward more full-body shots, similar to mainstream magazines. Contrary to previous studies, however, the majority of figures across time were average size, and a curvilinear relationship between time and diet/exercise content showed peak content in the early 1990s. Results are considered in context of research indicating African American women show less body dissatisfaction than other racial/ethnic groups. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

1994-01-01

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan.

PubMed

Tanaka, Chie; Tagami, Takashi; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III-V) from the 2004-2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004-2008), phase II (2009-2012), and phase III (2013-2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that mortality significantly decreased over time (from phase I to phase II, odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.22-0.67; from phase I to phase III, odds ratio: 0.34, 95% confidence interval: 0.19-0.62) for the overall cohort. While the 30-day mortality for splenectomy/splenorrhaphy diminished significantly over time (p = 0.01), there were no significant differences regarding mortality for non-operative management, with or without transcatheter arterial embolisation (p = 0.43, p = 0.29, respectively). In Japan, in-hospital 30-day mortality rates decreased significantly after splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury.

Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan

PubMed Central

Tanaka, Chie; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

Background Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. Methods We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III–V) from the 2004–2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004–2008), phase II (2009–2012), and phase III (2013–2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Results Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that mortality significantly decreased over time (from phase I to phase II, odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.22–0.67; from phase I to phase III, odds ratio: 0.34, 95% confidence interval: 0.19–0.62) for the overall cohort. While the 30-day mortality for splenectomy/splenorrhaphy diminished significantly over time (p = 0.01), there were no significant differences regarding mortality for non-operative management, with or without transcatheter arterial embolisation (p = 0.43, p = 0.29, respectively). Conclusions In Japan, in-hospital 30-day mortality rates decreased significantly after splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury. PMID:28910356

A scoping review of pediatric economic evaluation 1980-2014: do trends over time reflect changing priorities in evaluation methods and childhood disease?

PubMed

Sullivan, Shannon M; Tsiplova, Kate; Ungar, Wendy J

2016-10-01

Economic evaluations conducted in children have unique features compared to adults. Important developments in pediatric economic evaluation in recent years include new options for valuing health states for cost-utility analysis (CUA) and shifting child health priorities. The Pediatric Economic Database Evaluation (PEDE) project includes a comprehensive database of pediatric health economic evaluations published since 1980. The objective of this scoping review was to identify trends over time in the use of CUA and other analytic techniques, and the therapeutic areas chosen for study. Areas covered: Medical and grey literature were searched, key characteristics were extracted, frequencies were tabulated and cross-tabulations were performed. Differences between early (1980 and 1999) and late (2000 and 2014) periods were assessed using a chi-squared statistic. Of the 2,776 pediatric economic evaluations published between 1980 and 2014, substantially more were cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and CUAs than cost benefit analyses and cost minimization analyses (63.9 and 24.9% versus 7.6 and 3.6%, respectively). This pattern was consistent regardless of the type of intervention, disease or age group studied. A trend toward higher proportions of CUAs and CEAs was evident in the later period (X 2 p < 0.0001). Other significant trends included a higher proportion of studies of preventive interventions (X 2 p < 0.0001), and more studies in children aged 1 to 12 years and fewer in perinates in the later period (X 2 p < 0.0001). Overall the most common disease class studied was infectious diseases (29.2%). Expert commentary: Pediatric economic evaluation continues to grow in volume and methodologic complexity. While CUAs have increased, whether their quality has improved remains unknown. Although most studies are in infectious disease, the volume of publications may not align with emerging child health priorities such as adolescent health, injury, developmental disabilities, mental health, and the use of personalized medicine. Increasing economic evaluations in these areas will enhance pediatric decision-making.

Prevalence, Trend and Determining Factors of Gestational Diabetes in Germany.

PubMed

Huy, C; Loerbroks, A; Hornemann, A; Röhrig, S; Schneider, S

2012-04-01

Purpose: The true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany is unknown. Thus, the study's purposes were to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes as well as to describe the temporal prevalence trend and to identify determinants. Material and Methods: We calculated prevalence estimates based on two datasets: the register-based German perinatal statistic (n = 650 232) and the maternal self-reports from the German children and youth health survey (KiGGS; n = 15 429). Differences between prevalence estimates were analysed using χ 2 and trend tests, and determinants were identified using logistic regression. Results: According to the perinatal statistic, gestational diabetes was present in 3.7 % of pregnant women in Germany in 2010. The prevalence across the years 2001 to 2006 was estimated at 1.9 % which differed significantly from the prevalence estimate derived from the KiGGS dataset for the same period of time (5.3 %; 95 % confidence interval: 4.6-6.1 %). Both datasets show an increasing trend of gestational diabetes (p < 0.001). The risk for gestational diabetes was mainly associated with age, BMI and social class of pregnant women as well as with multiple pregnancies. Conclusion: The lack of significant screening studies among representative samples hampers a sound estimation of the true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany. The increasing trend in gestational diabetes might continue due to the projected increase of important risk factors (e.g., maternal age, obesity). Our analyses support the current consensus recommendations regarding standardised gestational diabetes screening.

Mathematical methods to analysis of topology, functional variability and evolution of metabolic systems based on different decomposition concepts.

PubMed

Mrabet, Yassine; Semmar, Nabil

2010-05-01

Complexity of metabolic systems can be undertaken at different scales (metabolites, metabolic pathways, metabolic network map, biological population) and under different aspects (structural, functional, evolutive). To analyse such a complexity, metabolic systems need to be decomposed into different components according to different concepts. Four concepts are presented here consisting in considering metabolic systems as sets of metabolites, chemical reactions, metabolic pathways or successive processes. From a metabolomic dataset, such decompositions are performed using different mathematical methods including correlation, stiochiometric, ordination, classification, combinatorial and kinetic analyses. Correlation analysis detects and quantifies affinities/oppositions between metabolites. Stoichiometric analysis aims to identify the organisation of a metabolic network into different metabolic pathways on the hand, and to quantify/optimize the metabolic flux distribution through the different chemical reactions of the system. Ordination and classification analyses help to identify different metabolic trends and their associated metabolites in order to highlight chemical polymorphism representing different variability poles of the metabolic system. Then, metabolic processes/correlations responsible for such a polymorphism can be extracted in silico by combining metabolic profiles representative of different metabolic trends according to a weighting bootstrap approach. Finally evolution of metabolic processes in time can be analysed by different kinetic/dynamic modelling approaches.

Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-20

2015 was the warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend — 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001. Credits: Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center Details: Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much. The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists agreed with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty.

Revisiting the Impact of NCLB High-Stakes School Accountability, Capacity, and Resources: State NAEP 1990-2009 Reading and Math Achievement Gaps and Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jaekyung; Reeves, Todd

2012-01-01

This study examines the impact of high-stakes school accountability, capacity, and resources under NCLB on reading and math achievement outcomes through comparative interrupted time-series analyses of 1990-2009 NAEP state assessment data. Through hierarchical linear modeling latent variable regression with inverse probability of treatment…

Characteristics and Trends of Attrition from the United States Naval Academy

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

dissatisfaction, they are having a more difficult time fitting in and finding large social circles that fully support their development . 3. Stage 3 The...degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN LEADERSHIP AND HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2006 Author: James W. Bishop Approved...21 B. STAGE 1: COHORT ANALYSES...............................................................21 C. STAGE 2: DATA SET ANALYSIS

Use of an interrupted time-series design to evaluate a cancer screening program.

PubMed

Michielutte, R; Shelton, B; Paskett, E D; Tatum, C M; Velez, R

2000-10-01

An alternative approach to intervention-control designs to evaluate community health education studies is to use a quasi-experimental design in which the outcomes of interest are examined over time in the intervention unit. The Forsyth County Cancer Screening Project (FoCaS) was a comprehensive clinic- and community-based education program to increase screening for cervical cancer and breast cancer among low-income women. This paper reports the use of piecewise regression accounting for potential effects of auto-correlation in the data to evaluate the effectiveness of the project in increasing mammography screening. Data for the evaluation of trends in screening consisted of all mammograms performed during the period of May 1992 through June 1995 at the Reynolds Health Center in Forsyth County, North Carolina. The results suggested that the FoCaS project was effective in increasing mammography screening among women age 40 or older in the study population. Analysis of the trends by age indicated that the program had differential effects on women age 40-49 and 50 or older. The results demonstrate that analyses of the type presented here can either complement or serve as an alternative to more traditional intervention-control analyses.

Decomposition Analyses Applied to a Complex Ultradian Biorhythm: The Oscillating NADH Oxidase Activity of Plasma Membranes Having a Potential Time-Keeping (Clock) Function

PubMed Central

Foster, Ken; Anwar, Nasim; Pogue, Rhea; Morré, Dorothy M.; Keenan, T. W.; Morré, D. James

2003-01-01

Seasonal decomposition analyses were applied to the statistical evaluation of an oscillating activity for a plasma membrane NADH oxidase activity with a temperature compensated period of 24 min. The decomposition fits were used to validate the cyclic oscillatory pattern. Three measured values, average percentage error (MAPE), a measure of the periodic oscillation, mean average deviation (MAD), a measure of the absolute average deviations from the fitted values, and mean standard deviation (MSD), the measure of standard deviation from the fitted values plus R-squared and the Henriksson-Merton p value were used to evaluate accuracy. Decomposition was carried out by fitting a trend line to the data, then detrending the data if necessary, by subtracting the trend component. The data, with or without detrending, were then smoothed by subtracting a centered moving average of length equal to the period length determined by Fourier analysis. Finally, the time series were decomposed into cyclic and error components. The findings not only validate the periodic nature of the major oscillations but suggest, as well, that the minor intervening fluctuations also recur within each period with a reproducible pattern of recurrence. PMID:19330112

Obesity, abdominal obesity, physical activity, and caloric intake in US adults: 1988 to 2010.

PubMed

Ladabaum, Uri; Mannalithara, Ajitha; Myer, Parvathi A; Singh, Gurkirpal

2014-08-01

Obesity and abdominal obesity are associated independently with morbidity and mortality. Physical activity attenuates these risks. We examined trends in obesity, abdominal obesity, physical activity, and caloric intake in US adults from 1988 to 2010. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Average body mass index (BMI) increased by 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30-0.44) per year in both women and men. Average waist circumference increased by 0.37% (95% CI, 0.30-0.43) and 0.27% (95% CI, 0.22-0.32) per year in women and men, respectively. The prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity increased substantially, as did the prevalence of abdominal obesity among overweight adults. Younger women experienced the greatest increases. The proportion of adults who reported no leisure-time physical activity increased from 19.1% (95% CI, 17.3-21.0) to 51.7% (95% CI, 48.9-54.5) in women, and from 11.4% (95% CI, 10.0-12.8) to 43.5% (95% CI, 40.7-46.3) in men. Average daily caloric intake did not change significantly. BMI and waist circumference trends were associated with physical activity level but not caloric intake. The associated changes in adjusted BMIs were 8.3% (95% CI, 6.9-9.6) higher among women and 1.7% (95% CI, 0.68-2.8) higher among men with no leisure-time physical activity compared with those with an ideal level of leisure-time physical activity. Our analyses highlight important dimensions of the public health problem of obesity, including trends in younger women and in abdominal obesity, and lend support to the emphasis placed on physical activity by the Institute of Medicine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Obesity, Abdominal Obesity, Physical Activity, and Caloric Intake in U.S. Adults: 1988-2010

PubMed Central

Ladabaum, Uri; Mannalithara, Ajitha; Myer, Parvathi A.; Singh, Gurkirpal

2014-01-01

Background Obesity and abdominal obesity are independently associated with morbidity and mortality. Physical activity attenuates these risks. We examined trends in obesity, abdominal obesity, physical activity, and caloric intake in U.S. adults from 1988 to 2010. Methods Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. Results Average body-mass index (BMI) increased by 0.37% (95% CI, 0.30-0.44%) per year in both women and men. Average waist circumference increased by 0.37% (95% CI, 0.30-0.43%) and 0.27% (95% CI, 0.22-0.32%) per year in women and men, respectively. The prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity increased substantially, as did the prevalence of abdominal obesity among overweight adults. Younger women experienced the greatest increases. The proportion of adults who reported no leisure-time physical activity increased from 19.1% (95% CI, 17.3-21.0%) to 51.7% (95% CI, 48.9-54.5%) in women, and from 11.4% (95% CI, 10.0-12.8%) to 43.5% (95% CI, 40.7-46.3%) in men. Average daily caloric intake did not change significantly. BMI and waist circumference trends were associated with physical activity level, but not caloric intake. The associated changes in adjusted BMIs were 8.3% (95% CI, 6.9-9.6%) higher among women and 1.7% (95% CI, 0.68-2.8%) higher among men with no leisure-time physical activity compared to those with an ideal level of leisure-time physical activity. Conclusions Our analyses highlight important dimensions of the public health problem of obesity, including trends in younger women and in abdominal obesity, and lend support to the emphasis placed on physical activity by the Institute of Medicine. PMID:24631411

Time trends in the incidence of hysterectomy-corrected overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014.

PubMed

Faber, Mette Tuxen; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan; Aarslev, Peter Bo; Kjaer, Susanne K

2017-08-01

To investigate time trends in the incidence of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer in Denmark 1978-2014, correcting for hysterectomy. Based on the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish National Patient Registry we calculated hysterectomy-corrected incidence rates of overall, type 1 and type 2 endometrial cancer. Separate analyses for women <55years (defined as pre- and perimenopausal age) and women aged ≥55years (defined as postmenopausal age) and analyses allowing for different time trends before and after the study period midyear 1996 were performed. Log-linear Poisson models were used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) in incidence with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The overall incidence of endometrial cancer decreased slightly from 1978 to 1995, but in the last two decades of the study period the incidence has been stable (APC=0.16; 95% CI: -0.19; 0.50). In the study period (1978-2014) type 1 endometrial cancer incidence decreased slightly (APC=-0.67; 95% CI:-0.83; -0.52), whereas the incidence of type 2 endometrial cancer increased substantially (APC=4.85; 95% CI: 4.47; 5.23). The decrease in type 1 endometrial cancer was most pronounced before 1996 in women younger than 55 years (APC=-2.79; 95% CI: -3.65; -1.91), while the largest increase in type 2 endometrial cancer was observed after 1996 (APC=6.42; 95% CI: 5.72; 7.12). Over a period of more than 35 years, the incidence of type 1 endometrial cancer decreased, mainly in pre- and perimenopausal women, while type 2 endometrial cancer incidence increased. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structure of the Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) in GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven

2011-01-01

This study examines the structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the GEOS-5 data assimilation system. Near-real time analyses, with a horizontal resolution of one-half or one quarter degree and a vertical resolution of about 1km in the tropopause region are examined with an emphasis on spatial structures at and around the tropopause. The contributions of in-situ observations of temperature and microwave and infrared radiances to the analyses are discussed, with some focus on the interplay between these types of observations. For a historical analysis (Merra) performed with GEOS-5, the impacts of changing observations on the assimilation system are examined in some detail - this documents some aspects of the time dependence of analysis that must be taken into account in the isolation of true geophysical trends. Finally, some sensitivities of the ozone analyses to input data and correlated errors between temperature and ozone are discussed.

Data Used in Analyses of Trends, and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Loads for Streams in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staub, Erik L.; Peak, Kelly L.; Tighe, Kirsten C.; Sadorf, Eric M.; Harned, Douglas A.

2010-01-01

Water-quality data from selected surface-water monitoring sites in the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends in concentrations of nutrients, suspended sediment, and major constituents and for in-stream nutrient and suspended-sediment loads for the period 1973-2005. The area of interest includes river basins draining into the southern Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Tennessee River-drainage basins in Hydrologic Regions 03 (South Atlantic - Gulf) and 06 (Tennessee). This data assessment is related to studies of several major river basins as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, which was designed to assess national water-quality trends during a common time period (1993-2004). Included in this report are data on which trend tests could be performed from 44 U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) sampling sites. The constituents examined include major ions, nutrients, and suspended sediment; the physical properties examined include pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and streamflow. Also included are data that were tested for trends from an additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval (STORET) database. The trend analyses of the STORET data were limited to total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations. Data from 48 U.S. Geological Survey NWIS sampling sites with sufficient water-quality and continuous streamflow data for estimating nutrient and sediment loads are included. The methods of data compilation and modification used prior to performing trend tests and load estimation are described. Results of the seasonal Kendall trend test and the Tobit trend test are given for the 334 monitoring sites, and in-stream load estimates are given for the 48 monitoring sites. Basin characteristics are provided, including regional landscape variables and agricultural nutrient sources (annual variations in cropping and fertilizer use). The data and results presented in this report are in tabular format and can be downloaded and used by environmental researchers and water managers, particularly in the Southeast.

Single subject design: Use of time series analyses in a small cohort to understand adherence with a prescribed fluid restriction.

PubMed

Reilly, Carolyn Miller; Higgins, Melinda; Smith, Andrew; Culler, Steven D; Dunbar, Sandra B

2015-11-01

This paper presents a secondary in-depth analysis of five persons with heart failure randomized to receive an education and behavioral intervention on fluid restriction as part of a larger study. Using a single subject analysis design, time series analyses models were constructed for each of the five patients for a period of 180 days to determine correlations between daily measures of patient reported fluid intake, thoracic impedance, and weights, and relationships between patient reported outcomes of symptom burden and health related quality of life over time. Negative relationships were observed between fluid intake and thoracic impedance, and between impedance and weight, while positive correlations were observed between daily fluid intake and weight. By constructing time series analyses of daily measures of fluid congestion, trends and patterns of fluid congestion emerged which could be used to guide individualized patient care or future research endeavors. Employment of such a specialized analysis technique allows for the elucidation of clinically relevant findings potentially disguised when only evaluating aggregate outcomes of larger studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Tercek, Michael T.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Recent temporal trends in sleep duration, domain-specific sedentary behaviour and physical activity. A survey among 25-79-year-old Danish adults.

PubMed

Aadahl, Mette; Andreasen, Anne Helms; Hammer-Helmich, Lene; Buhelt, Lone; Jørgensen, Torben; Glümer, Charlotte

2013-11-01

Prevalence of sedentary behaviour is high in many countries, but little is known about temporal trends in sitting time. To examine temporal changes in sleep and domain-specific sedentary behaviour and moderate to vigorous leisure time physical activity (MVPA). Two cross-sectional population-based surveys of 25-79-year-old inhabitants were conducted in The Capital Region of Denmark in 2007 (N = 69.800, response rate 52.3%) and 2010 (N = 77.517, response rate 54.8%). Information on sedentary behaviour and physical activity was obtained from self-report questionnaire and sociodemographic information from central registers. Data were weighted for survey design and for non-response and were analysed by multiple regression analyses. In 2007, the entire survey population reported a mean daily sleeping duration of 7.4 hours, leisure time sitting of 3.4 hours per day, occupational sitting of 4.4 hours per day, MVPA of 0.87 hours per day and a total 24-hour energy expenditure of 40.12 METs per day. In 2010, duration of sleep was unaltered (p = 0.1), sedentary leisure time and sedentary work time had increased by 12.6 minutes (p < 0.0001) and 13.2 minutes (p < 0.0001) per day, respectively. Time spent on MVPA had increased by 2.9 minutes per day (p < 0.0001). The 24-hour energy expenditure had decreased by 0.41 METs (p < 0.0001). Adult Danish men and women spend an increased amount of time sitting down at work and during leisure time, but also on leisure time MVPA. As duration of sleep is unaltered findings suggest that low intensity physical activity may be displaced in everyday life.

Factors associated with trends in infant and child mortality in developing countries during the 1990s.

PubMed Central

Rutstein, S. O.

2000-01-01

The 1990s have seen a remarkable decrease in mortality among infants and children in most developing countries. In some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, these declines in mortality among children have slowed and are now increasing again. Internationally comparable data derived from survey programmes, such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) programme, are available both to document the changes that have occurred in mortality and to provide insight into some of the factors that may explain these trends in mortality. The factors found in repeated DHS programmes that explain these trends fall into five categories: fertility behaviour; nutritional status, breastfeeding, and infant feeding; the use of health services by mothers and for children; environmental health conditions; and socioeconomic status. Both simple analyses and multivariate analyses of changes in these factors between surveys indicate that all factors affected the mortality trends. However, to explain trends in mortality, the variables themselves had to have changed over time. During the 1990s fertility behaviour, breastfeeding, and infant feeding have changed less than other factors and so would seem to have played a smaller role in mortality trends. This study confirms that trends in mortality during the 1990s were related to more than just a handful of variables. It would, therefore, be a mistake to concentrate policy actions on one or a few of these while forsaking others. Countries with the largest decreases in mortality have had substantial improvements in most of the factors that might be used to explain these changes. In some countries mortality has risen. In part these increases can be explained by the factors included in this study, such as deterioration in seeking medical care for children with fever. Other factors that were not measured, such as the increasing resistance of malaria to drug treatment and the increased prevalence of parental HIV/AIDS, may be contributing to the increase noted. PMID:11100620

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

PubMed

Crewe, Tara L; Taylor, Philip D; Lepage, Denis

2015-01-01

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Global health-related publications in otolaryngology are increasing.

PubMed

Chambers, Kyle J; Creighton, Francis; Abdul-Aziz, Dunia; Cheney, Mack; Randolph, Gregory W

2015-04-01

Determine trends in global health-related publication in otolaryngology. A review of research databases. A search of publications available on PubMed and nine additional databases was undertaken reviewing two time periods 10 years apart for the timeframes 1998 to 2002 (early time period) and 2008 to 2012 (recent time period) using specific search terms to identify global health-related publications in otolaryngology. Publications were examined for region of origin, subspecialty, type of publication, and evidence of international collaboration. χ and t test analyses were used to identify trends. In the 1998 to 2002 time period, a total of 26 publications met inclusion criteria for the study, with a mean of 5.2 ± 2.8 publications per year. In the 2008 to 2012 time period, a total of 61 publications met inclusion criteria, with a mean of 12.3 ± 5.6 publications per year. The 235% increase in global health-related publications identified between the two study periods was statistically significant (P = .02). The absolute number of publications in which collaboration occurred between countries increased from three in the early time period to nine the recent time period. There has been a significant increase in the volume of global health-related publications in English language otolaryngology journals over the past decade, providing strong evidence of the increasing trend of global health as an academic pursuit within the field of otolaryngology. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

PubMed

Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

2001-04-01

Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and Vitamin A intake from fortified food showed a significant linear time trend. All other nutrients studied here gave significant non-linear time trends. Nutrient intake with fortified food reached maximum values between 1994 and 1996 followed by a decrease thereafter. Signs of changing food consumption patterns were found, pointing to an almost uniform decrease of nutrient intake since 1994/96 in our population of German children and adolescents. This could be an alarming indicator of a slight but unpreferable tendency to eat energydense, nutrient-poor foods.

Buteos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Titus, K.; Fuller, M.R.; Stauffer, D.F.; Sauer, J.R.; Pendleton, Beth Giron; LeFranc, Maurice N.=; Moss, Mary Beth

1989-01-01

Red-tailed, red-shouldered, and broad-winged hawks nest throughout the 11 northeastern states, and red-tailed, red-shouldered, and rough-legged hawks winter in this region. Historical and present ranges of these species are similar, although red-shouldered and broad-winged hawk ranges now have more vacant patches at a local and regional level. Only the red-shouldered hawk is of special concern or officially listed as threatened by some state agencies. Analysis of Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data indicated positive trends in counts of red-tailed hawks along the more developed Northeast corridor. No trends were found in analyses of BBS data for red-shouldered hawks in either more- or less-developed regions of the Northeast. Based on the BBS, we found a decreasing trend in counts of broad-winged hawks along the more-developed Northeast corridor, and an increasing trend in less-developed regions of the Northeast. Our analyses of Christmas Bird Count data indicated no trend in counts of red-shouldered nor rough-legged hawks, but an increase in counts of red-tailed hawks from 1962 to 1983. Many individuals believe that species such as the red-shouldered hawk are declining in the Northeast, but no trends were detected in our analyses.

Applications of MIDAS regression in analysing trends in water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penev, Spiridon; Leonte, Daniela; Lazarov, Zdravetz; Mann, Rob A.

2014-04-01

We discuss novel statistical methods in analysing trends in water quality. Such analysis uses complex data sets of different classes of variables, including water quality, hydrological and meteorological. We analyse the effect of rainfall and flow on trends in water quality utilising a flexible model called Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS). This model arises because of the mixed frequency in the data collection. Typically, water quality variables are sampled fortnightly, whereas the rain data is sampled daily. The advantage of using MIDAS regression is in the flexible and parsimonious modelling of the influence of the rain and flow on trends in water quality variables. We discuss the model and its implementation on a data set from the Shoalhaven Supply System and Catchments in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Information criteria indicate that MIDAS modelling improves upon simplistic approaches that do not utilise the mixed data sampling nature of the data.

Ethnic Identity Development and Acculturation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Mexican-Heritage Youth in the Southwest United States

PubMed Central

Matsunaga, Masaki; Hecht, Michael L.; Elek, Elvira; Ndiaye, Khadidiatou

2010-01-01

Utilizing part of the survey data collected for a National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)–funded project from 29 public elementary schools in Phoenix, Arizona (N = 1,600), this study explored the underlying structure of Mexican-heritage youths’ ethnic identity and cultural/linguistic orientation. Latent profile and transition analyses identified four distinct orientation profiles endorsed by the early adolescents and their developmental trends across four time points. Most Mexican and Mexican American adolescents endorsed bicultural profiles with developmental trends characterized by widespread stasis and transitions toward greater ethnic identity exploration. Multinominal logistic regression analyses revealed associations between profile endorsement and adolescents’ gender, socioeconomic status, parents’ birthplace, and visits outside the United States. These findings are discussed in regard to previous findings on acculturation and ethnic identity development. Individuals’ adaptation to the immediate local environment is noted as a possible cause of prevalent biculturalism. Limitations and future directions for the research on ethnic identity development and acculturation are also discussed. PMID:20740051

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Towards intensive parenting? Changes in the composition and determinants of mothers' and fathers' time with children 1992-2006.

PubMed

Craig, Lyn; Powell, Abigail; Smyth, Ciara

2014-09-01

Contemporary expectations of good parenting hold that focused, intensive parental attention is essential to children's development. Parental input is viewed as a key determinant in children's social, psychological and educational outcomes, with the early years particularly crucial. However, increased rates of maternal employment mean that more parents are juggling work and family commitments and have less non-work time available to devote to children. Yet studies find that parental childcare time has increased over recent decades. In this paper, we explore the detail of this trend using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Time Use Survey (TUS), 1992 and 2006. To investigate whether discourses on intensive parenting are reflected in behaviour, we examine a greater range of parent-child activities than has been undertaken to date, looking at trends in active childcare time (disaggregated into talk-based, physical and accompanying care activities); time in childcare as a secondary activity; time spent in the company of children in leisure activities; and time spent in the company of children in total. We also investigate whether the influence of factors known to predict parental time with children (gender, education, employment status and the age of children) have changed over time. We contextualize our analyses within social and economic trends in Australia and find a compositional change in parental time, with more active childcare occurring within less overall time, which suggests more intensive, child-centred parenting. Fathers' parent-child time, particularly in physical care, increased more than mothers' (from a much lower base), and tertiary education no longer predicts significantly higher childcare time. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Patterns in Patient Access and Utilization of Online Medical Records: Analysis of MyChart

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Electronic patient portals provide a new method for sharing personal medical information with individual patients. Objective Our aim was to review utilization patterns of the largest online patient portal in Canada's largest city. Methods We conducted a 4-year time-trend analysis of aggregated anonymous utilization data of the MyChart patient portal at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Ontario, Canada, from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2015. Prespecified analyses examined trends related to day (weekend vs weekday), season (July vs January), year (2012 vs 2015), and an extreme adverse weather event (ice storm of December 20-26, 2013). Primary endpoints included three measures of patient portal activity: registrations, logins, and pageviews. Results We identified 32,325 patients who registered for a MyChart account during the study interval. Time-trend analysis showed no sign of attenuating registrations over time. Logins were frequent, averaged 734 total per day, and showed an increasing trend over time. Pageviews mirrored logins, averaged about 3029 total per day, and equated to about 5 pageviews during the average login. The most popular pageviews were clinical notes, followed by laboratory results and medical imaging reports. All measures of patient activity were lower on weekends compared to weekdays (P<.001) yet showed no significant changes related to seasons or extreme weather. No major security breach, malware attack, or software failure occurred during the study. Conclusions Online patient portals can provide a popular and reliable system for distributing personal medical information to active patients and may merit consideration for hospitals. PMID:29410386

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

PubMed

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

Increasing antimicrobial resistance in clinical isolates of Staphylococcus intermedius group bacteria and emergence of MRSP in the UK.

PubMed

Beever, L; Bond, R; Graham, P A; Jackson, B; Lloyd, D H; Loeffler, A

2015-02-14

Frequencies of antimicrobial resistance were determined amongst 14,555 clinical Staphylococcus intermedius group (SIG) isolates from UK dogs and cats to estimate resistance trends and quantify the occurrence of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP). Reports from two diagnostic laboratories (13,313 general submissions, 1242 referral centre only submissions) were analysed retrospectively (2003/2006-2012). MRSP were defined by phenotypic resistance to meticillin and concurrent broad β-lactam resistance; a subset was confirmed genetically (SIG-specific nuc and mecA). Trends were analysed by Cochran-Armitage test. Resistance remained below 10 per cent for cefalexin, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and the fluoroquinolones. Increasing resistance trends were seen in both laboratories for ampicillin/amoxicillin (both P<0.001), cefovecin (both P<0.046) and enrofloxacin (both P<0.02). Resistance to cefalexin increased over time in referral hospital isolates (P<0.001) to clindamycin (P=0.01) and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (P=0.001) amongst general laboratory submissions. Overall, 106 MRSP were isolated (0.7 per cent of submissions) including 32 (2.6 per cent of submissions, all genetically confirmed) from the referral centre population (inter-laboratory difference P<0.001). Against a background of widely susceptible SIG isolates, a new trend of increasing resistance to important antimicrobials was identified overtime and the emergence of MRSP from UK clinical cases was confirmed. Attention to responsible use of antibacterial therapy in small animal practice is urgently needed. British Veterinary Association.

Trends in survival and early functional outcomes from hospitalized severe adult traumatic brain injuries, Pennsylvania, 1998–2007

PubMed Central

Sánchez, Álvaro I; Krafty, Robert T; Weiss, Harold B; Rubiano, Andrés M; Peitzman, Andrew B; Puyana, Juan Carlos

2011-01-01

Objective To determine trends for in-hospital survival and functional outcomes at acute care hospital discharge for severe adult traumatic brain injury (SATBI) patients in Pennsylvania, during 1998–2007. Methods Secondary analysis of the Pennsylvania trauma outcome study database. Main Outcome Measures Survival and functional status scores of five domains (feeding, locomotion, expression, transfer mobility, and social interaction) fitted into logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, race, co-morbidities, injury mechanism, extra-cranial injuries, severity scores, hospital stay, trauma center, and hospital level. Sensitivity analyses for functional outcomes were performed. Results There were 26,234 SATBI patients. Annual numbers of SATBI increased from 1,757 to 3,808 during 1998–2007. Falls accounted for 47.7% of all SATBI. Survival increased significantly from 72.5% to 82.7% (OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.08–1.11, P<0.001). In sensitivity analyses, trends of complete independence in functional outcomes increased significantly for expression (OR 1.01, 95%CI 1.00–1.02, P=0.011) and social interaction (OR 1.01, 95%CI 1.00–1.03, P=0.002). There were no significant variations over time for feeding, locomotion, and transfer mobility. Conclusions Trends for SATBI served by Pennsylvania’s established trauma system showed increases in rates but substantial reductions in mortality and significant improvements in functional outcomes at discharge for expression and social interaction. PMID:21386713

Low validity of Google Trends for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates.

PubMed

Tran, Ulrich S; Andel, Rita; Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Voracek, Martin

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that search volumes of the most popular search engine worldwide, Google, provided via Google Trends, could be associated with national suicide rates in the USA, UK, and some Asian countries. However, search volumes have mostly been studied in an ad hoc fashion, without controls for spurious associations. This study evaluated the validity and utility of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of suicide rates in the USA, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Suicide-related search terms were systematically collected and respective Google Trends search volumes evaluated for availability. Time spans covered 2004 to 2010 (USA, Switzerland) and 2004 to 2012 (Germany, Austria). Temporal associations of search volumes and suicide rates were investigated with time-series analyses that rigorously controlled for spurious associations. The number and reliability of analyzable search volume data increased with country size. Search volumes showed various temporal associations with suicide rates. However, associations differed both across and within countries and mostly followed no discernable patterns. The total number of significant associations roughly matched the number of expected Type I errors. These results suggest that the validity of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates is low. The utility and validity of search volumes for the forecasting of suicide rates depend on two key assumptions ("the population that conducts searches consists mostly of individuals with suicidal ideation", "suicide-related search behavior is strongly linked with suicidal behavior"). We discuss strands of evidence that these two assumptions are likely not met. Implications for future research with Google Trends in the context of suicide research are also discussed.

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

PubMed

Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-05-01

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend SCI and RCS, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long-term growth trends. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seventy years of stream‐fish collections reveal invasions and native range contractions in an Appalachian (USA) watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckwalter, Joseph D.; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Barney, Jacob N.

2018-01-01

AimKnowledge of expanding and contracting ranges is critical for monitoring invasions and assessing conservation status, yet reliable data on distributional trends are lacking for most freshwater species. We developed a quantitative technique to detect the sign (expansion or contraction) and functional form of range‐size changes for freshwater species based on collections data, while accounting for possible biases due to variable collection effort. We applied this technique to quantify stream‐fish range expansions and contractions in a highly invaded river system.LocationUpper and middle New River (UMNR) basin, Appalachian Mountains, USA.MethodsWe compiled a 77‐year stream‐fish collections dataset partitioned into ten time periods. To account for variable collection effort among time periods, we aggregated the collections into 100 watersheds and expressed a species’ range size as detections per watershed (HUC) sampled (DPHS). We regressed DPHS against time by species and used an information‐theoretic approach to compare linear and nonlinear functional forms fitted to the data points and to classify each species as spreader, stable or decliner.ResultsWe analysed changes in range size for 74 UMNR fishes, including 35 native and 39 established introduced species. We classified the majority (51%) of introduced species as spreaders, compared to 31% of natives. An exponential functional form fits best for 84% of spreaders. Three natives were among the most rapid spreaders. All four decliners were New River natives.Main conclusionsOur DPHS‐based approach facilitated quantitative analyses of distributional trends for stream fishes based on collections data. Partitioning the dataset into multiple time periods allowed us to distinguish long‐term trends from population fluctuations and to examine nonlinear forms of spread. Our framework sets the stage for further study of drivers of stream‐fish invasions and declines in the UMNR and is widely transferable to other freshwater taxa and geographic regions.

Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes: a repeat cross-sectional national survey covering the years 2000 to 2010.

PubMed

Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

2014-08-01

In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects with diabetes. Data comprised level of leisure time PA (inactive; moderate active; medium active; high active); smoking; BMI; and alcohol consumption, provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity Surveys. Participants older than 45 years with or without diabetes were included from cross-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p<0.001; women) and from 67.8% to 79.1% (p=0.01; men). The prevalence of daily smokers was reduced from 27.2% to 16.4%, p=0.015, in women with diabetes. In men with diabetes, BMI increased from 27.2 ± 4.0 to 28.6 ± 5.1 kgm(-2), p=0.003, and men who exceeded the maximum recommendation for alcohol consumption increased from 9.4% to 19.0%, p=0.007. The leisure time PA level was reduced in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends may have serious implications for cardiovascular risk in Danish patients with diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The observational case for Jupiter being a typical massive planet.

PubMed

Lineweaver, Charles H; Grether, Daniel

2002-01-01

We identify a subsample of the recently detected extrasolar planets that is minimally affected by the selection effects of the Doppler detection method. With a simple analysis we quantify trends in the surface density of this subsample in the period-Msin(i) plane. A modest extrapolation of these trends puts Jupiter in the most densely occupied region of this parameter space, thus indicating that Jupiter is a typical massive planet rather than an outlier. Our analysis suggests that Jupiter is more typical than indicated by previous analyses. For example, instead of MJup mass exoplanets being twice as common as 2 MJup exoplanets, we find they are three times as common.

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

PubMed

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

PubMed

Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

2016-04-01

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

HIV and aging: insights from the Asia Pacific HIV Observational Database (APHOD)

PubMed Central

Han, N; Wright, ST; O'Connor, CC; Hoy, J; Ponnampalavanar, S; Grotowski, M; Zhao, HX; Kamarulzaman, A

2016-01-01

Background The proportion of people living with HIV/AIDS in the ageing population (>50 years) is increasing. We aim to explore the relationship between older age and treatment outcomes in HIV-positive persons from the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Patients from the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD) and the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) were included in the analysis. We used survival methods to assess the association between older age and all-cause mortality, as well as time-to treatment modification. We used regression analyses to evaluate changes in CD4 counts after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation and determined the odds of detectable viral load, up to 24 months of treatment. Results A total of 7142 patients were included in these analyses (60% TAHOD, 40% AHOD), of which, 25% were >50 years old. In multivariable analyses those aged >50 were at least twice as likely to die as those aged 30-39 years [HR (50-59 years): 2.27, 95% CI: 1.34-3.83; HR (>60years) 4.28, 95% CI: 2.42-7.55]. The effect of older age on CD4 count changes was insignificant (p-trend=0.06). The odds of detectable viral load after cART initiation decreased with age (p-trend=<0.0001). The effect of older age on time-to first treatment modification was insignificant (p-trend=0.21). We found no statistically significant differences in outcomes between AHOD and TAHOD participants for all endpoints examined. Conclusion The associations between older age and typical patient outcomes in HIV-positive patients from the Asia-Pacific region are similar in AHOD and TAHOD. Our data indicate that ‘age-effects’ traverse the resource-rich and resource-limited divide and indicate that future ageing-related findings might be applicable to each setting. PMID:25407085

HIV and aging: insights from the Asia Pacific HIV Observational Database (APHOD).

PubMed

Han, N; Wright, S T; O'Connor, C C; Hoy, J; Ponnampalavanar, S; Grotowski, M; Zhao, H X; Kamarulzaman, A

2015-03-01

The proportion of people living with HIV/AIDS in the ageing population (>50 years old) is increasing. We aimed to explore the relationship between older age and treatment outcomes in HIV-positive persons from the Asia Pacific region. Patients from the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD) and the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) were included in the analysis. We used survival methods to assess the association between older age and all-cause mortality, as well as time to treatment modification. We used regression analyses to evaluate changes in CD4 counts after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation and determined the odds of detectable viral load, up to 24 months of treatment. A total of 7142 patients were included in these analyses (60% in TAHOD and 40% in AHOD), of whom 25% were >50 years old. In multivariable analyses, those aged > 50 years were at least twice as likely to die as those aged 30-39 years [hazard ratio (HR) for 50-59 years: 2.27; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-3.83; HR for > 60 years: 4.28; 95% CI 2.42-7.55]. The effect of older age on CD4 count changes was insignificant (p-trend=0.06). The odds of detectable viral load after cART initiation decreased with age (p-trend=< 0.0001). The effect of older age on time to first treatment modification was insignificant (p-trend=0.21). We found no statistically significant differences in outcomes between AHOD and TAHOD participants for all endpoints examined. The associations between older age and typical patient outcomes in HIV-positive patients from the Asia Pacific region are similar in AHOD and TAHOD. Our data indicate that 'age effects' traverse the resource-rich and resource-limited divide and that future ageing-related findings might be applicable to each setting. © 2014 British HIV Association.

Impact of macro-level socio-economic factors on rising suicide rates in South Korea: panel-data analysis in East Asia.

PubMed

Hong, Jihyung; Knapp, Martin

2014-12-01

The rapid increase in suicide rates in South Korea, particularly in the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s, compares with the declining suicide rates observed in most other OECD countries over the same period. This study aimed to examine an array of macro-level societal factors that might have contributed to the rising suicide trend in South Korea. We first investigated whether this trend was unique to South Korea, or ubiquitous across five Asian countries/areas that are geographically and culturally similar (South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan), using WHO mortality data and national statistics (1980-2009). Age-standardised suicide rates (per 100,000 population) were calculated for each gender and age group (15-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65+) for each country. Both panel data and country-specific time-series analyses were employed to investigate the impact of economic change and social integration/regulation on suicide. Despite similarities in geography and culture, the rising trend of suicide rates was unique to South Korea. This atypical trend was most apparent for people aged 65 and over, which was in sharp contrast to the decreasing suicide trends observed in the other four Asian countries. The results of the panel data analyses generally pointed to a negative relationship between economic growth and suicide rates, particularly for working-aged people. The results of the time-series analyses further suggested that low levels of social integration, as indicated by rising divorce rates, may also have a role in rising suicide rates in South Korea, particularly for older people. Furthermore, the association between suicide rates and economic adversity (unemployment and economic downturn) was most salient among middle-aged men in South Korea. Compared to four other East Asian countries/areas (Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan), South Korea has uniquely experienced a rising trend of suicide rates over the past three decades, particularly among older people. The findings highlight the differential associations between social changes and suicide rates at various stages over a person's life course. Low levels of social integration and economic adversity may in part explain the atypical suicide trend in South Korea, especially for older people and middle-aged men, respectively. Data constraints, however, limit the scope for explanation in light of the complex and multifactorial causes of suicide. Different age groups within the population require different policy interventions to curb the unprecedented rise in suicide rates in South Korea. Particularly for older people, there is a great need to strengthen methods of assisting family support as well as formulating models of social care that are financially-sustainable and culturally sensitive. More investment is also needed to strengthen labour market protection and/or expand social safety net for the unemployed. The link between social integration and suicide rates deserves further empirical investigation, so that mediating factors that are amenable to policy actions can be better identified.

Unexpected extreme events drive the inter-annual variabilty in carbon exchange at the Pine forest in Netherlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sethi, Sanjna; Moors, Eddy; Jamir, Chubamenla

2017-04-01

The carbon exchange between vegetation and the atmosphere tends to vary on an annual basis. This change is a continuous process its trend emerging over a period of years can be analysed. In any such trend over a prolonged period, some years stand out more than the others on account of extreme events. Explaining deviations from the expected average emissions may help to understand the drivers behind these interannual deviations. Such noticeable deviations in trend maybe on account of extreme events and need to be analysed in overall context of the ecosystem. This research's focus is to identify the main drivers responsible for the deviations, and how extreme events impact the variability over a prolonged period of time. The hypothesis being that extreme events are driving these deviations. Carbon flux data done for multiple years (1997-2015) for a site at the Loobos Pine Forest is used and compared with an ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) to understand if the deviation of measured data from the simulated data is on account of extreme events on a monthly and daily basis. A Principal Component Analysis is performed on the identified deviations between measured and simulated carbon exchange to pin point the main cause behind their occurrence.​

Trends in the incidence of dementia: design and methods in the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium.

PubMed

Chibnik, Lori B; Wolters, Frank J; Bäckman, Kristoffer; Beiser, Alexa; Berr, Claudine; Bis, Joshua C; Boerwinkle, Eric; Bos, Daniel; Brayne, Carol; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Debette, Stephanie; Davis-Plourde, Kendra L; Dufouil, Carole; Fornage, Myriam; Grasset, Leslie; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos; Helmer, Catherine; Ikram, M Arfan; Ikram, M Kamran; Kern, Silke; Kuller, Lewis H; Launer, Lenore; Lopez, Oscar L; Matthews, Fiona; Meirelles, Osorio; Mosley, Thomas; Ower, Alison; Psaty, Bruce M; Satizabal, Claudia L; Seshadri, Sudha; Skoog, Ingmar; Stephan, Blossom C M; Tzourio, Christophe; Waziry, Reem; Wong, Mei Mei; Zettergren, Anna; Hofman, Albert

2017-10-01

Several studies have reported a decline in incidence of dementia which may have large implications for the projected burden of disease, and provide important guidance to preventive efforts. However, reports are conflicting or inconclusive with regard to the impact of gender and education with underlying causes of a presumed declining trend remaining largely unidentified. The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium aggregates data from nine international population-based cohorts to determine changes in the incidence of dementia since 1990. We will employ Poisson regression models to calculate incidence rates in each cohort and Cox proportional hazard regression to compare 5-year cumulative hazards across study-specific epochs. Finally, we will meta-analyse changes per decade across cohorts, and repeat all analysis stratified by sex, education and APOE genotype. In all cohorts combined, there are data on almost 69,000 people at risk of dementia with the range of follow-up years between 2 and 27. The average age at baseline is similar across cohorts ranging between 72 and 77. Uniting a wide range of disease-specific and methodological expertise in research teams, the first analyses within the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium are underway to tackle outstanding challenges in the assessment of time-trends in dementia occurrence.

Trends in the Vertical Distribution of Ozone: A Comparison of Two Analyses of Ozonesonde Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loogan, J. A.; Megretskaia, I. A.; Miller, A. J.; Tiao, G. C.; Choi, D.; Zhang, L.; Bishop, L.; Stolarski, R.; Labow, G. J.; Hollandsworth, S. M.;

Contribution of Health Researches in National Knowledge Production: A Scientometrics Study on 15-Year Research Products of Iran.

PubMed

Djalalinia, Shirin; Peykari, Niloofar; Eftekhari, Monir Baradaran; Sobhani, Zahra; Laali, Reza; Qorbani, Omid Ali; Akhondzadeh, Shahin; Malekzadeh, Reza; Ebadifar, Asghar

2017-01-01

Researchers, practitioners, and policymakers call for updated valid evidence to monitor, prevent, and control of alarming trends of health problems. To respond to these needs, health researches provide the vast multidisciplinary scientific fields. We quantify the national trends of health research outputs and its contribution in total science products. We systematically searched Scopus database with the most coverage in health and biomedicine discipline as the only sources for multidisciplinary citation reports, for all total and health-related publications, from 2000 to 2014. These scientometrics analyses covered the trends of main index of scientific products, citations, and collaborative papers. We also provided information on top institutions, journals, and collaborative research centers in the fields of health researches. In Iran, over a 15-year period, 237,056 scientific papers have been published, of which 81,867 (34.53%) were assigned to health-related fields. Pearson's Chi-square test showed significant time trends between published papers and their citations. Tehran University of Medical Sciences was responsible for 21.87% of knowledge productions share. The second and the third ranks with 11.15% and 7.28% belonged to Azad University and Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, respectively. In total fields, Iran had the most collaborative papers with the USA (4.17%), the UK (2.41%), and Canada (0.02%). In health-related papers, similar patterns of collaboration followed by 4.75%, 2.77%, and 1.93% of papers. Despite the ascending trends in health research outputs, more efforts required for the promotion of collaborative outputs that cause synergy of resources and the use of practical results. These analyses also could be useful for better planning and management of planning and conducting studies in these fields.

Changing trends in the aetiology, treatment and outcomes of bloodstream infection occurring in the first year after solid organ transplantation: a single-centre prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Oriol, Isabel; Sabé, Núria; Simonetti, Antonella F; Lladó, Laura; Manonelles, Anna; González, Jose; Tubau, Fe; Carratalà, Jordi

2017-09-01

To analyse trends in the aetiology, treatment and outcomes of bloodstream infection (BSI) within the first year post-transplant over the last 10-year period, we prospectively recorded all episodes of BSI occurring in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients during the first year post-transplant from 2007 to 2016. Trends of factors were analysed by 2-year periods. Of 475 consecutive episodes of BSI, 218 occurred within a year of SOT in 178 SOT recipients. Gram-positive BSI decreased over time (40.5-2.2%). In contrast, there was a steady increase in Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) BSI (54.1-93.3%; P < 0.001), mainly due to Pseudomonas aeruginosa (2.4-20.4%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (7.1-26.5%). Multidrug-resistant (MDR) GNB (4.8-38.8%; P < 0.001) rose dramatically, especially due to extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) production (7.1-34.7%). There was a sharp rise in the use of carbapenems, both as empirical (11.9-55.3%; P < 0.001) and as targeted antibiotic treatment (11.9-46.9%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, today, GNB are the leading causative agents of BSI in SOT recipients within the first year after SOT. In addition, MDR GNB have emerged mainly due to ESBL-producing strains. In spite of these changes, length of hospital stay, days of treatment and mortality have remained stable over time. © 2017 Steunstichting ESOT.

Hamstring injuries have increased by 4% annually in men's professional football, since 2001: a 13-year longitudinal analysis of the UEFA Elite Club injury study.

PubMed

Ekstrand, Jan; Waldén, Markus; Hägglund, Martin

2016-06-01

There are limited data on hamstring injury rates over time in football. To analyse time trends in hamstring injury rates in male professional footballers over 13 consecutive seasons and to distinguish the relative contribution of training and match injuries. 36 clubs from 12 European countries were followed between 2001 and 2014. Team medical staff recorded individual player exposure and time-loss injuries. Injuries per 1000 h were compared as a rate ratio (RR) with 95% CI. Injury burden was the number of lay off days per 1000 h. Seasonal trend for injury was analysed using linear regression. A total of 1614 hamstring injuries were recorded; 22% of players sustained at least one hamstring injury during a season. The overall hamstring injury rate over the 13-year period was 1.20 injuries per 1000 h; the match injury rate (4.77) being 9 times higher than the training injury rate (0.51; RR 9.4; 95% CI 8.5 to 10.4). The time-trend analysis showed an annual average 2.3% year on year increase in the total hamstring injury rate over the 13-year period (R(2)=0.431, b=0.023, 95% CI 0.006 to 0.041, p=0.015). This increase over time was most pronounced for training injuries-these increased by 4.0% per year (R(2)=0.450, b=0.040, 95% CI 0.011 to 0.070, p=0.012). The average hamstring injury burden was 19.7 days per 1000 h (annual average increase 4.1%) (R(2)=0.437, b=0.041, 95% CI 0.010 to 0.072, p=0.014). Training-related hamstring injury rates have increased substantially since 2001 but match-related injury rates have remained stable. The challenge is for clubs to reduce training-related hamstring injury rates without impairing match performance. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Evolution of patients' complaints in a French university hospital: is there a contribution of a law regarding patients' rights?

PubMed Central

Giugliani, Camila; Gault, Nathalie; Fares, Valia; Jegu, Jérémie; Trolli, Sergio Eleni dit; Biga, Julie; Vidal-Trecan, Gwenaelle

2009-01-01

Background Legislative measures have been identified as one effective way of changing attitude or behaviour towards health care. The aim of this study was to describe trends in patients' complaints for medical issues; to evaluate the contribution of a law regarding patients' rights, and to identify factors associated to patients' perception of a medical error. Methods Patients with a complaint letter for medical issues in a French university hospital were included. Trends in complaint rates were analysed. Comparisons were made between a first (1998–2000) and a second (2001–2004) time period, before and after the diffusion of the law, and according to the perception of a medical error. Results Complaints for medical issues increased from 1998 to 2004. Of 164 complaints analysed, 66% were motivated by the perception of a medical error (47% during the first time period vs. 73% during the second time period; p = 0.001). Error or delay in diagnosis/treatment and surgical/medical complication were the main reasons for complaints. Surgical departments had the higher number of complaints. Second time period, substandard care, disability, and adverse effect of a health product were independently associated with the perception of a medical error, positively for the formers, and negatively for the latter. Conclusion This study revealed an increase with time in the number of complaints for medical issues in a university hospital, as well as an increase in the perception of a medical error after the passing of a law regarding patients' rights in France. PMID:19660131

A comparison of trends in operative approach and postoperative outcomes for colorectal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Addae, Jamin K; Gani, Faiz; Fang, Sandy Y; Wick, Elizabeth C; Althumairi, Azah A; Efron, Jonathan E; Canner, Joseph K; Euhus, David M; Schneider, Eric B

2017-02-01

Data-assessing trends and perioperative outcomes relative to surgical approach for colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery are lacking. We report national trends of CRC surgery and compare postoperative outcomes by surgical approach. A total of 261,886 patients undergoing surgery for CRC were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2009 to 2012. Trends in surgical approach were assessed using the Cochrane-Armitage test of trends. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to compare length of stay (LOS), postoperative complications, and cost by surgical approach. At the time of surgery, 57.5% underwent an open procedure, whereas 42.4% underwent either a laparoscopic (39.9%) or robotic (2.5%) colorectal surgery. The use of minimally invasive surgery increased over time (2009 versus 2012: 37.3% versus 46.8%; P < 0.001). Postoperative morbidity was 15.9% and was higher after open surgery (open versus laparoscopic versus robotic: 18.4% versus 12.4% versus 13.3%; P < 0.001). Patients who underwent a minimally invasive surgery had shorter LOS (laparoscopic: OR, 0.55, 95% CI, 0.52-0.58; robotic: OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.49-0.69; both P < 0.001). Robotic surgery was consistently associated with the highest mean costs followed by laparoscopic and open surgery (P < 0.001). Patients undergoing minimally invasive colorectal surgery had a lower postoperative morbidity and shorter LOS compared with patients undergoing open colorectal surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Public knowledge, attitudes and behaviour regarding people with mental illness in England 2009-2012.

PubMed

Evans-Lacko, Sara; Henderson, Claire; Thornicroft, Graham

2013-04-01

Public stigma against people with mental health problems is damaging to individuals with mental illness and is associated with substantial societal burden. To investigate whether public knowledge, attitudes and behaviour in relation to people with mental health problems have improved among the English population since the inception of the Time To Change programme in 2009. We analysed longitudinal trends in public knowledge, attitudes and behaviour between 2009 and 2012 among a nationally representative sample of English adults. There were improvements in intended behaviour (0.07 standard deviation units, 95% CI 0.01-0.14) and a non-significant trend for improvement in attitudes (P = 0.08) among the English population. There was, however, no significant improvement in knowledge or reported behaviour. The findings provide support for effectiveness of the national Time to Change programme against stigma and discrimination in improving attitudes and intended behaviour, but not knowledge, among the public in England.

Marked socioeconomic inequalities in hip fracture incidence rates during the Bone and Joint Decade (2000-2010) in Portugal: age and sex temporal trends in a population based study.

PubMed

Oliveira, Carla Maria; Alves, Sandra Maria; Pina, Maria Fátima

2016-08-01

Socioeconomic factors may influence changes in hip fracture (HF) incidence over time. We analysed HF temporal trends during the Bone and Joint Decade in Portugal (BJD-Portugal), 2000-2010, by regional socioeconomic status (SES), sex and age. We selected registers of patients aged 50+ years with HF (International Classification of Diseases, V.9-Clinical Modification, ICD9-CM) caused by traumas of low/moderate energy, from the National Hospital Discharge Database. Annual time series of age-specific incidence rates were calculated by sex and regional SES (deprived, medium, affluent). Generalised additive models were fitted to identify shape/turning points in temporal trends. We selected 96 905 HF (77.3% in women). Women were older than men at admission (81.2±8.5 vs 78.2±10.1 years-old, p<0.001). For women 65-79 years, a continuously decreasing trend (1.7%/year) only in affluent and increasing trends (3.3-3.4%/year) after 2006/2007 in medium and deprived was observed. For men, trends were stable or increased in almost all age/SES groups (only two decreasing periods). For the oldest women, all SES present similar trends: turning points around 2003 (initiating decreasing periods: 1.8-2.9%/year) and around 2007 (initiating increasing periods: 3.7-3.3%/year). There were SES-sex-age inequalities in temporal trends during BJD-Portugal: marked SES inequalities among women aged 65-79 years (a persistent, decreasing trend only in the affluent) vanished among the oldest women; the same was not observed in men, for them, there were almost no declining periods; women aged ≥80 years, presented increasing trends around 2007, as in most deprived/age/sex groups. Despite some successful periods of decreasing trends, incidence rates did not improve overall in almost all age groups and both sexes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Breast-feeding and weaning practices in the DONALD study: age and time trends.

PubMed

Foterek, Kristina; Hilbig, Annett; Alexy, Ute

2014-03-01

Besides influencing short- and long-term health status, infant feeding practices are known to have an effect on later food preferences. This study aimed to identify present trends in breast-feeding duration and weaning practices with special focus on preparation methods of complementary food (CF), that is, homemade and commercial CF. In total, 1419 three-day weighed diet records collected between 2004 and 2012 from 366 children of the German DOrtmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed study ages 6 to 24 months were analysed. Full (n = 339) and total breast-feeding duration (n = 344) was collected by questionnaire. To investigate age and time trends, logistic regression and polynomial mixed regression models were used. Infants born between 2008 and 2012 were 3.3-fold less likely to be fully breast-fed for ≥4 months than those born before 2004 (P < 0.0001). Overall, 59.3% commercial, 21.1% homemade, and 19.6% combined CF was consumed by the study sample. Subjects with high commercial CF consumption (percentage of commercial CF > median 62%) were significantly older (P < 0.0001), showed shorter full and total breast-feeding duration (P < 0.0001), and were more likely to have mothers with a lower educational status (P = 0.01). Both commercial and homemade CF showed opposing, nonlinear age trends. No time trends could be found. Decreasing duration of full breast-feeding should encourage health care providers to further promote longer breast-feeding duration. With the constantly high consumption of commercial CF at all ages, nutritional adequacy of both homemade and commercial CF needs to be investigated closer, as does their long-term influence on health and dietary habits, for example, fruit and vegetable intake.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-10-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (i) an increase in ELOs and (ii) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (iii) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa - Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Peter, T.; Ribatet, M.; Davison, A. C.; Stübi, R.; Weihs, P.; Holawe, F.

2010-05-01

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

Children's use of general practitioner services in the five Nordic countries

PubMed Central

Virtanen, J I; Berntsson, L T; Lahelma, E; Köhler, L

2006-01-01

Objective To compare socioeconomic, sociodemographic, and living area differences in children's use of GP services in five Nordic countries from the 1980s to the 1990s and to analyse trends during the period. Design Cross sectional population surveys using random samples comprising 3000 children aged 2–17 years were conducted in 1984 and 1996 in five Nordic countries. Time trends in use of GP services were studied in each country by age, sex, parents' highest level of education, and living area. Setting Five Nordic countries, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden in 1984 and 1996. Participants A total sample of 15 000 children aged 2–17 years. Altogether 3000 children were selected at random from the national population registers of the national bureaus of statistics in each country. Main outcome Health services utilisation on the basis of responses to a questionnaire item asking whether the parents had consulted a GP with regard to their children's health during the previous three months. Main results The prevalence of children's utilisation of GP services varied from 14% in 1984 in Sweden to 28% in 1996 in Iceland. A clear time trend towards increasing utilisation of GP services (p<0.05) was found in all countries except in Denmark. Odds ratios for time trends (1984 = 1.00) varied from 1.22 (1.02 to 1.46) in Sweden to 1.92 (1.62 to 2.30) in Norway. After adjusting for independent variables, a statistically borderline significant declining utilisation trend (OR = 0.85 (0.70 to 1.03)) was found for Denmark. Conclusion Children's use of GP services has increased significantly in four of the five Nordic countries. PMID:16415268

A Simple Method to Control Positive Baseline Trend within Data Nonoverlap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Richard I.; Vannest, Kimberly J.; Davis, John L.

2014-01-01

Nonoverlap is widely used as a statistical summary of data; however, these analyses rarely correct unwanted positive baseline trend. This article presents and validates the graph rotation for overlap and trend (GROT) technique, a hand calculation method for controlling positive baseline trend within an analysis of data nonoverlap. GROT is…

Air Pollution and urban climatology at Norfolk, Virginia

Treesearch

W. Maurice Pritchard; Kuldip P. Chopra

1977-01-01

The atmosphere at Norfolk is usually stable, with no strongly prevailing wind direction. Linear regression analyses of visibility data indicate a generally decreasing visibility trend between 1960 and 1972, with a possible trend reversal in later years. A 44 percent increase in the annual frequency of 0-4-mile visibility occurred in 1960-72. Similar analyses of...

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Ecohydrological Index, Native Fish, and Climate Trends and Relationships in the Kansas River Basin.

PubMed

Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R; Muche, Muluken E; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Anandhi, Aavudai

2018-01-01

This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half-century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65 mm/50 yr) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western Basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum- flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (p<0.10) to negative trends of 1-day maximum flows (both species) and indices associated with reduced spawning-season flows for Plains Minnow and shifting annual-flow timing and increased flow intermittency for Common Shiner. Both species were absent for all western Basin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern Basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover.

PubMed

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-04-05

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover

PubMed Central

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A.; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H.; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-01-01

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration. PMID:28378830

The devil is in the details: trends in avoidable hospitalization rates by geography in British Columbia, 1990–2000

PubMed Central

Cloutier-Fisher, Denise; Penning, Margaret J; Zheng, Chi; Druyts, Eric-Bené F

2006-01-01

Background Researchers and policy makers have focussed on the development of indicators to help monitor the success of regionalization, primary care reform and other health sector restructuring initiatives. Certain indicators are useful in examining issues of equity in service provision, especially among older populations, regardless of where they live. AHRs are used as an indicator of primary care system efficiency and thus reveal information about access to general practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to examine trends in avoidable hospitalization rates (AHRs) during a period of time characterized by several waves of health sector restructuring and regionalization in British Columbia. AHRs are examined in relation to non-avoidable and total hospitalization rates as well as by urban and rural geography across the province. Methods Analyses draw on linked administrative health data from the province of British Columbia for 1990 through 2000 for the population aged 50 and over. Joinpoint regression analyses and t-tests are used to detect and describe trends in the data. Results Generally speaking, non-avoidable hospitalizations constitute the vast majority of hospitalizations in a given year (i.e. around 95%) with AHRs constituting the remaining 5% of hospitalizations. Comparing rural areas and urban areas reveals that standardized rates of avoidable, non-avoidable and total hospitalizations are consistently higher in rural areas. Joinpoint regression results show significantly decreasing trends overall; lines are parallel in the case of avoidable hospitalizations, and lines are diverging for non-avoidable and total hospitalizations, with the gap between rural and urban areas being wider at the end of the time interval than at the beginning. Conclusion These data suggest that access to effective primary care in rural communities remains problematic in BC given that rural areas did not make any gains in AHRs relative to urban areas under recent health sector restructuring initiatives. It remains important to continue to monitor the discrepancy between them as a reflection of inequity in service provision. In addition, it is important to consider alternative explanations for the observed trends paying particular attention to the needs of rural and urban populations and the factors influencing local service provision. PMID:16914056

The physical activity transition among adults in China: 1991-2011.

PubMed

Ng, S W; Howard, A-G; Wang, H J; Su, C; Zhang, B

2014-01-01

Previous studies have linked work, home production, travel activities and inactivity with weight and health outcomes. However, these focused on average physical activity (PA) over time rather than changes in PA and associated sociodemographic and economic factors and urbanicity. Using the 1991-2011 China Health and Nutrition Survey data, we estimated the metabolic equivalent of task hours per week for individuals in occupational, domestic, travel and active leisure domains and sedentary hours per week. We present the distributions among adult men and women (aged 18-60), and use quantile regression models to explore factors associated with these trends. Trend analyses on the distribution of PA show declines along the whole distribution of occupational PA for men and women and domestic PA for women in China. These patterns remain consistent after adjusting for individual- and household-level factors. Controlling for urbanicity mitigated the decrease in occupational PA, particularly for men, but not the decrease in domestic PA. Given China's rapid urbanization and its association with occupational PA declines and the strong time trend in domestic PA, there is a need to invest in interventions and policies that promote PA during leisure and travel times. © 2014 The Authors. Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Trends in violence education in family medicine residency curricula.

PubMed

Cronholm, Peter F; Singh, Vijay; Fogarty, Colleen T; Ambuel, Bruce

2014-09-01

Violence is a significant public health issue with far-reaching implications for the health of individuals and their communities. Our objective was to describe trends in violence-related training in family medicine residency programs since the last national survey was conducted in 1997. Surveys were sent to 337 US family medicine residency programs with the program director having active Society of Teachers of Family Medicine (STFM) membership. Measures included residency setting and characteristics, violence-related curricular content, teaching techniques and personnel, timing of content, and impact of changes in Residency Review Committee (RRC) and Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) requirements. Descriptive statistics and bivariate analyses comparing measures across time were used. A total of 201 (60%) surveys were completed. The most common violence curricula was child (83%) and elder abuse (76%), and the most common teachers of violence-related content were family physicians, psychologists, and social workers. The most common teaching methods were clinical precepting (94%), lectures (90%), case vignettes (71%), and intimate partner violence (IPV) shelter experiences (67%). ACGME and RRC changes were not reflected in self-reported measures of curricular emphasis or time. Violence curricular content and number of hours has been constant in family medicine residencies over time. An increase in the reported use of active learning strategies was identified as a trend across surveys. Next steps for violence curricula involve assessment of residents' competency to identify and intervene in violence.

Smoking ban policies in Italy and the potential impact of the so-called Sirchia Law: state of the art after eight years.

PubMed

Gualano, Maria Rosaria; Bert, Fabrizio; Scaioli, Giacomo; Passi, Stefano; La Torre, Giuseppe; Siliquini, Roberta

2014-01-01

The aim of the present work is to describe the state of the art of tobacco habits in Italy, eight years after the law was introduced. Time series analyses, based on estimates of smoking prevalence/consumption derived from the openly available data of national surveys performed during the 2001-2013 period, were performed. Data have been expressed in percentage of smokers and daily cigarettes consumption. Time changes are expressed as expected annual percentage change (EAPC). Over time, the percentage of Italian smokers shows a constant and statistically significant decrease (from 28.9% in 2001 to 20.6% in 2013, EAPC = -2.6%, and P < 0.001). Regarding data stratified by gender, we found a stronger reduction among men (EAPC = -2.9%, P < 0.001) than in women (EAPC = -2.5%, P < 0.001). Similarly, the consumption of tobacco smoking, measured as the number of daily cigarettes smoked, registered a downward trend (P < 0.001). No join point (time point when a significant trend change is detected) resulted from the trend analysis. Data show a constant decrease of tobacco consumption in Italy, with no join point related to the introduction of the banning law. These findings require to reflect on the priorities of the smoking banning policies that may be focused on other intervention activities such as to increase the price of cigarettes.

Haemoglobin recovery among HIV-1 infected patients on zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy and other regimens in north-central Nigeria.

PubMed

Parrish, Deidra D; Blevins, Meridith; Megazzini, Karen M; Shepherd, Bryan E; Mohammed, Mukhtar Y; Wester, C William; Vermund, Sten H; Aliyu, Muktar H

2014-04-01

We conducted a study to assess trends in haemoglobin recovery among HIV-infected patients initiated on zidovudine-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) stratified by baseline haemoglobin level. Haemoglobin data from non-pregnant adult patients initiating cART in rural north-central Nigeria between June 2009 and May 2011 were analysed using a linear mixed effects model to assess the interaction between time, zidovudine-containing regimen and baseline haemoglobin level on the outcome of subsequent haemoglobin level. Best-fit curves were created for baseline haemoglobin in the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles. We included 313 patients with 736 measures of haemoglobin in the analysis (239 on zidovudine and 74 on non-zidovudine-containing regimens). Median haemoglobin increased over time in both groups, with differences in haemoglobin response over time related to baseline haemoglobin levels and zidovudine use (p = 0.003). The groups of patients on zidovudine at the 10th and 90th percentiles had downward sloping curves while all other groups had upward trending haemoglobin levels. Although haemoglobin levels increased overall for patients on zidovudine-containing regimens, for those in the 10th and 90th percentiles haemoglobin levels trended downward over time. These results have implications for decisions regarding when to initiate, switch from or avoid the use of zidovudine.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

Borehole Volumetric Strainmeters Detect Very Long-period Ocean Level Changes in Tokai Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takanami, T.; Linde, A. T.; Sacks, S. I.; Kitagawa, G.; Hirata, N.; Rydelek, P. A.

2015-12-01

We detected a clear very long-period strain signal with a predominant period of about 2 months in the data from Sacks-Evertson borehole volumetric strainmeters. These have been operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) since 1976 in Tokai area, Japan, the area of an expected Tokai eartquake. Earth's surface is always influenced by natural force such as earth tide, air pressure, and precipitation as well as by human induced sources. In order to decompose into their components in the maximum likelihood estimation, state-space modeling (Takanami et al., 2013) is applied to the observed time series data for 15 months before and after the earthquake M6.5 that occurred on 11th August 2009 in Suruga Bay. In the analysis, the strain data are decomposed into trend, air pressure, earth tide, precipitation effects and observation noise. Clear long-period strain signals are seen in the normalized trend component time series. Time series data from JMA tide gages around Suruga Bay are similarly decomposed. Then spectral analyses are applied to the trend components for the same time interval. Comparison of amplitude peaks in spectra for both data sets show all have a peak at period of about 1464 hours. Thus strain changes may be influenced by very long-period ocean level changes; it is necessary to consider this possibility before attributing tectonic significance to such variations.

The change in the sex ratio in multiple sclerosis is driven by birth cohort effects.

PubMed

Ajdacic-Gross, V; Schmid, M; Mutsch, M; Steinemann, N; von Wyl, V; Bopp, M

2017-01-01

Birth cohort effects have greatly shaped long-term trends in multiple sclerosis (MS). This study examined whether birth cohort effects have also determined trends in the sex ratio. Age-period-cohort analyses were applied to Swiss mortality data, 1901-2010, using logit models. Sex was introduced as an additional main effect (overall effect) and in interaction terms with A, P and C. Birth cohort effects strongly impacted the trends of MS risk in Switzerland, with a peak in cohorts born in the 1910s and 1920s. Similarly, birth cohort effects accounted for the change in the sex ratios during the 20th century. The balanced sex ratio at the beginning of the 20th century has been superseded by a ratio with a preponderance of women. Despite similarities in timing, the patterns of overall and sex-specific birth cohort estimates were not congruent. The change in the sex ratio in MS is driven by birth cohort related factors. Overall and sex-specific trends indicate that the appearance of MS has changed dramatically in the 20th century. The driving force behind these trends is related to yet unknown environmental factors. © 2016 EAN.

Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited

PubMed Central

Pascual, M.; Ahumada, J. A.; Chaves, L. F.; Rodó, X.; Bouma, M.

2006-01-01

The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s. The role of climate change in the exacerbation of the disease has been controversial, and the specific influence of rising temperature (warming) has been highly debated following a previous study reporting no evidence to support a trend in temperature. We revisit this result using the same temperature data, now updated to the present from 1950 to 2002 for four high-altitude sites in East Africa where malaria has become a serious public health problem. With both nonparametric and parametric statistical analyses, we find evidence for a significant warming trend at all sites. To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions. This approach suggests that the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable. Our results emphasize the importance of considering not just the statistical significance of climate trends but also their biological implications with dynamical models. PMID:16571662

Pediatric Asthma Mortality and Hospitalization Trends Across Asia Pacific Relationship With Asthma Drug Utilization Patterns

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The wide variability in prevalence of childhood asthma across Asia Pacific is well documented, but less is known about its trends in mortality and hospitalization. Objectives To examine pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization trends of selected countries across Asia Pacific, and also patterns of asthma drug utilization. Materials and Methods Mortality and population data were sourced from the World Health Organization's mortality database. Data on hospitalization were obtained by direct inquiry and from government and scientific publications. Drug use for asthma was expressed as a controller-to-reliever (C:R) ratio (ie, units of inhaled corticosteroids/units of short-acting β-agonists, sold in each country). Time-series regression analyses were used to examine temporal patterns and study association between deaths, hospitalizations, and drug use. Results Japan showed a decreasing trend in pediatric asthma mortality whereas an increase was observed in Thailand. Hospitalizations decreased in Australia and Singapore but increased in Taiwan, Republic of China. C:R ratios increased significantly across the countries. Conclusions Mixed trends in pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization rates were observed, which coincided with a uniform increase in C:R ratios. This may reflect importance of other aspects of asthma management besides pharmacotherapy. PMID:23283014

Status and trends in demography of northern spotted owls, 1985-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Franklin, A.B.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.; Schwarz, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Olson, G.S.; Ackers, S.H.; Andrews, L.S.; Biswell, B.L.; Carlson, P.C.; Diller, L.V.; Dugger, K.M.; Fehring, K.E.; Fleming, T.L.; Gerhardt, R.P.; Gremel, S.A.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Happe, P.J.; Herter, D.R.; Higley, J.M.; Horn, R.B.; Irwin, L.L.; Loschl, P.J.; Reid, J.A.; Sovern, S.G.; Krausman, P.R.

2006-01-01

We analyzed demographic data from northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) from 14 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and California for 1985-2003. The purpose of our analyses was to provide an assessment of the status and trends of northern spotted owl populations throughout most of their geographic range. The 14 study areas made up approximately 12% of the range of the subspecies and included federal, tribal, private, and mixed federal and private lands. The study areas also included all the major forest types that the subspecies inhabits. The analyses followed rigorous protocols that were developed a priori and were the result of extensive discussions and consensus among the authors. Our primary objectives were to estimate fecundity, apparent survival (??), and annual rate of population change (??) and to determine if there were any temporal trends in these population parameters. In addition to analyses of data from individual study areas, we conducted 2 meta-analyses on each demographic parameter. One meta-analysis was conducted on all 14 areas, and the other was restricted to the 8 areas that constituted the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan for northern spotted owls under the Northwest Forest Plan. The average number of years of reproductive data per study area was 14 (range = 5-19), and the average number of recapture occasions per study area was 13 (range = 4-18). Only 1 study area had 1 year old. We found no differences in apparent survival rates between sexes except for 1 area (Marin), which had only 6 years of data. Estimates of apparent survival from individual study areas indicated that there were differences among age classes with adults generally having higher survival than 1- and 2-year-olds. Apparent survival rates ranged from 0.750 (SE=0.026) to 0.886 (SE=0.010) for adults, 0.626 (SE=0.073) to 0.886 (SE=0.010) for 2-year-olds, and 0.415 (SE=0.111) to 0.860 (SE=0.017) for 1-year-olds. These estimates were comparable to survival rates from previous studies on the subspecies. We found evidence for negative time trends in survival rate

Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Tummon, Fiona; Haigh, Joanna D.

2017-10-01

Observations of stratospheric ozone from multiple instruments now span three decades; combining these into composite datasets allows long-term ozone trends to be estimated. Recently, several ozone composites have been published, but trends disagree by latitude and altitude, even between composites built upon the same instrument data. We confirm that the main causes of differences in decadal trend estimates lie in (i) steps in the composite time series when the instrument source data changes and (ii) artificial sub-decadal trends in the underlying instrument data. These artefacts introduce features that can alias with regressors in multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis; both can lead to inaccurate trend estimates. Here, we aim to remove these artefacts using Bayesian methods to infer the underlying ozone time series from a set of composites by building a joint-likelihood function using a Gaussian-mixture density to model outliers introduced by data artefacts, together with a data-driven prior on ozone variability that incorporates knowledge of problems during instrument operation. We apply this Bayesian self-calibration approach to stratospheric ozone in 10° bands from 60° S to 60° N and from 46 to 1 hPa (˜ 21-48 km) for 1985-2012. There are two main outcomes: (i) we independently identify and confirm many of the data problems previously identified, but which remain unaccounted for in existing composites; (ii) we construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties, that is free from most of these problems - we call this the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite. To analyse the new BASIC composite, we use dynamical linear modelling (DLM), which provides a more robust estimate of long-term changes through Bayesian inference than MLR. BASIC and DLM, together, provide a step forward in improving estimates of decadal trends. Our results indicate a significant recovery of ozone since 1998 in the upper stratosphere, of both northern and southern midlatitudes, in all four composites analysed, and particularly in the BASIC composite. The BASIC results also show no hemispheric difference in the recovery at midlatitudes, in contrast to an apparent feature that is present, but not consistent, in the four composites. Our overall conclusion is that it is possible to effectively combine different ozone composites and account for artefacts and drifts, and that this leads to a clear and significant result that upper stratospheric ozone levels have increased since 1998, following an earlier decline.

Color and temperature of the crater lakes at Kelimutu volcano through time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Sam; Wright, Robert; Rouwet, Dmitri

2018-01-01

We investigated the color and temperature of three volcanic crater lakes that co-exist at Kelimutu volcano (Indonesia) using 30 years of Landsat data. These satellite data were obtained through Google Earth Engine. Time series of surface reflectance (visible wavelengths) and brightness temperature above background (thermal infrared wavelengths) were calculated. Color was defined in the RGB (red-green-blue) and HSV (hue-saturation-value) color spaces, and we introduce a visualization concept called "hue stretch" to consistently represent hue through time. These parameters display long-term trends, seasonal cycles and short duration bursts of activity at the lakes. We demonstrate that the color of the lakes are related over a period of months to years and discovered a previously unreported but significant episode around 1997, which included large agglomerations of floating elemental sulfur. Globally speaking, these techniques could reveal trends at any of the 100 crater lakes on active volcanoes. Furthermore, they could apply to any target whose color changes through time (e.g., forests, crops, and non-volcanic water bodies). We have open-sourced the code necessary to perform these analyses.

Seasonal movement and spatial distribution of the sheep ked (Diptera: Hippoboscidae) on Wyoming lambs.

PubMed

Legg, D E; Kumar, R; Watson, D W; Lloyd, J E

1991-10-01

When populations of adult sheep ked, Melophagus ovinus (L.), infesting unshorn lambs were monitored at the University of Wyoming Paradise Farm during 1986, we determined the body regions on which keds would be found at various times of the year and their seasonal population trends for optimal sampling. Results suggested that ked populations were consistently greater on the ribs than on any other area of the lamb. No significant differences were detected for ked populations between sides of a lamb. Distinct and similar ked population trends over time occurred only in the rib, thigh, shoulder, hind leg, belly, and hind flank areas of the lambs, suggesting that a significant seasonal migration did not occur. Analyses for seasonal population fluctuations indicated that ked populations increased in the winter and spring, decreased in summer and then increased again in the fall. Thus, sampling for keds in the rib area at shearing, which begins in March in Wyoming and runs through mid-April, would be an opportune time to detect keds. At other times of the year, the rib area should be inspected for presence of sheep ked.

Satellite Sounder-Based OLR-, Cloud- and Atmospheric Temperature Climatologies for Climate Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel

2006-01-01

Global energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system may change due to natural and man-made climate variations. For example, changes in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) can be regarded as a crucial indicator of climate variations. Clouds play an important role -still insufficiently assessed in the global energy balance on all spatial and temporal scales, and satellites provide an ideal platform to measure cloud and large-scale atmospheric variables simultaneously. The TOVS series of satellites were the first to provide this type of information since 1979. OLR [Mehta and Susskind], cloud cover and cloud top pressure [Susskind et al] are among the key climatic parameters computed by the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A algorithm using mainly the retrieved temperature and moisture profiles. AIRS, regarded as the new and improved TOVS , has a much higher spectral resolution and greater S/N ratio, retrieving climatic parameters with higher accuracy. First we present encouraging agreements between MODIS and AIRS cloud top pressure (C(sub tp) and effective (A(sub eff), a product of infrared emissivity at 11 microns and physical cloud cover or A(sub c)) cloud fraction seasonal and interannual variabilities for selected months. Next we present validation efforts and preliminary trend analyses of TOVS-retrieved C(sub tp) and A(sub eff). For example, decadal global trends of the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-D2 P(sub c), and A(sub eff)/A(sub c), values are similar. Furthermore, the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-AVHRR [available since 19831 cloud fractions correlate even more strongly, including regional trends. We also present TOVS and AIRS OLR validation effort results and (for the longer-term TOVS Pathfinder Path-A dataset) trend analyses. OLR interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and both from the AIRS [Susskind et al] and TOVS OLR computations are in remarkably good agreement. Global monthly mean CERES and TOVS OLR time series show very good agreement in absolute values also. Finally, we will assess correlations among long-term trends of selected parameters, derived simultaneously from the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A datase

[Visual field progression in glaucoma: cluster analysis].

PubMed

Bresson-Dumont, H; Hatton, J; Foucher, J; Fonteneau, M

2012-11-01

Visual field progression analysis is one of the key points in glaucoma monitoring, but distinction between true progression and random fluctuation is sometimes difficult. There are several different algorithms but no real consensus for detecting visual field progression. The trend analysis of global indices (MD, sLV) may miss localized deficits or be affected by media opacities. Conversely, point-by-point analysis makes progression difficult to differentiate from physiological variability, particularly when the sensitivity of a point is already low. The goal of our study was to analyse visual field progression with the EyeSuite™ Octopus Perimetry Clusters algorithm in patients with no significant changes in global indices or worsening of the analysis of pointwise linear regression. We analyzed the visual fields of 162 eyes (100 patients - 58 women, 42 men, average age 66.8 ± 10.91) with ocular hypertension or glaucoma. For inclusion, at least six reliable visual fields per eye were required, and the trend analysis (EyeSuite™ Perimetry) of visual field global indices (MD and SLV), could show no significant progression. The analysis of changes in cluster mode was then performed. In a second step, eyes with statistically significant worsening of at least one of their clusters were analyzed point-by-point with the Octopus Field Analysis (OFA). Fifty four eyes (33.33%) had a significant worsening in some clusters, while their global indices remained stable over time. In this group of patients, more advanced glaucoma was present than in stable group (MD 6.41 dB vs. 2.87); 64.82% (35/54) of those eyes in which the clusters progressed, however, had no statistically significant change in the trend analysis by pointwise linear regression. Most software algorithms for analyzing visual field progression are essentially trend analyses of global indices, or point-by-point linear regression. This study shows the potential role of analysis by clusters trend. However, for best results, it is preferable to compare the analyses of several tests in combination with morphologic exam. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Profiling agricultural land cover change in the North Central U.S. using ten years of the Cropland Data Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandborn, A.; Ebinger, L.

2016-12-01

The Cropland Data Layer (CDL), produced by the USDA/National Agricultural Statistics Service, provides annual, georeferenced crop specific land cover data over the contiguous United States. Several analyses were performed on ten years (2007-2016) of CDL data in order to visualize and quantify agricultural change over the North Central region (North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota). Crop masks were derived from the CDL and layered to produce a ten-year time stack of corn, soybeans, and spring wheat at 30m spatial resolution. Through numerous image analyses, a temporal profile of each crop type was compiled and portrayed cartographically. For each crop, analyses included calculating the mean center of crop area over the ten year sequence, identifying the first and latest year the crop was grown on each pixel, and distinguishing crop rotation patterns and replacement statistics. Results show a clear north-western expansion trend for corn and soybeans, and a western migration trend for spring wheat. While some change may be due to commonly practiced crop rotation, this analysis shows that crop footprints have extended into areas that were previously other crops, idle cropland, and pasture/rangeland. Possible factors contributing to this crop migration pattern include profit advantages of row crops over small grains, improved crop genetics, climate change, and farm management program changes. Identifying and mapping these crop planting differences will better inform agricultural best practices, help to monitor the latest crop migration patterns, and present researchers with a way to quantitatively measure and forecast future agricultural trends.

Efficacy and safety of flavocoxid compared with naproxen in subjects with osteoarthritis of the knee- a subset analysis.

PubMed

Levy, Robert; Khokhlov, Alexander; Kopenkin, Sergey; Bart, Boris; Ermolova, Tatiana; Kantemirova, Raiasa; Mazurov, Vadim; Bell, Marjorie; Caldron, Paul; Pillai, Lakshmi; Burnett, Bruce

2010-12-01

twice-daily flavocoxid, a cyclooxygenase and 5-lipoxygenase inhibitor with potent antioxidant activity of botanical origin, was evaluated for 12 weeks in a randomized, double-blind, active-comparator study against naproxen in 220 subjects with moderate-severe osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. As previously reported, both groups noted a significant reduction in the signs and symptoms of OA with no detectable differences in efficacy between the groups when the entire intent-to-treat population was considered. This post-hoc analysis compares the efficacy of flavocoxid to naproxen in different subsets of patients, specifically those related to age, gender, and disease severity as reported at baseline for individual response parameters. in the original randomized, double-blind study, 220 subjects were assigned to receive either flavocoxid (500 mg twice daily) or naproxen (500 mg twice daily) for 12 weeks. In this subgroup analysis, primary outcome measures including the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities OA index and subscales, timed walk, and secondary efficacy variables, including investigator global assessment for disease and global response to treatment, subject visual analog scale for discomfort, overall disease activity, global response to treatment, index joint tenderness and mobility, were evaluated for differing trends between the study groups. subset analyses revealed some statistically significant differences and some notable trends in favor of the flavocoxid group. These trends became stronger the longer the subjects continued on therapy. These observations were specifically noted in older subjects (>60 years), males and in subjects with milder disease, particularly those with lower subject global assessment of disease activity and investigator global assessment for disease and faster walking times at baseline. initial analysis of the entire intent-to-treat population revealed that flavocoxid was as effective as naproxen in managing the signs and symptoms of OA of the knee. Detailed analyses of subject subsets demonstrated distinct trends in favor of flavocoxid for specific groups of subjects.

Worldwide Inverse Association between Gastric Cancer and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Suggesting a Common Environmental Factor Exerting Opposing Effects.

PubMed

Derakhshan, Mohammad H; Arnold, Melina; Brewster, David H; Going, James J; Mitchell, David R; Forman, David; McColl, Kenneth E L

2016-02-01

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is increasing while adenocarcinoma of the stomach is decreasing. We have investigated whether the incidences of these two cancers and their time trends might be inversely related pointing to a common environmental factor exerting opposite effects on these cancers. For cross-sectional analyses data were abstracted from "Cancer Incidence in Five Continents" (CI5) Volume X and GLOBOCAN 2012. Relevant ICD-10 codes were used to locate esophageal and gastric cancers anatomically, and ICD-O codes for the histological diagnosis of EAC. For longitudinal analyses, age standardized rates (ASRs) of EAC and total gastric cancer (TGC) were extracted from CI5C-Plus. Estimated (2012) ASRs were available for 51 countries and these showed significant negative correlations between EAC and both TGC (males: correlation coefficient (CC)=-0.38, P=0.006, females: CC=-0.41, P=0.003) and non-cardia gastric cancer rates (males: CC=-0.41, P=0.003 and females: CC=-0.43, P=0.005). Annual incidence trends were analyzed for 38 populations through 1989-2007 and showed significant decreases for TGC in 89% and increases for EAC in 66% of these, with no population showing a fall in the latter. Significant negative correlation between the incidence trends of the two cancers was observed in 27 of the 38 populations over the 19-50 years of available paired data. Super-imposition of the longitudinal and cross-sectional data indicated that populations with a current high incidence of EAC and low incidence of gastric cancer had previously resembled countries with a high incidence of gastric cancer and low incidence of EAC. The negative association between gastric cancer and EAC in both current incidences and time trends is consistent with a common environmental factor predisposing to one and protecting from the other.

A Long Data Record (1979-2003) of Stratospheric Ozone Derived from TOMS Cloud Slicing: Comparison with SAGE and Implications for Ozone Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemke, Jerry R.; Chandra, Sushil; Bhartia, Pawan K.

2004-01-01

It is generally recognized that Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment (SAGE) stratospheric ozone data have become a standard long-record reference field for comparison with other stratospheric ozone measurements. This study demonstrates that stratospheric column ozone (SCO) derived from total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) Cloud Slicing may be used to supplement SAGE data as a stand-alone long- record reference field in the tropics extending to middle and high latitudes over the Pacific. Comparisons of SAGE I1 version 6.2 SCO and TOMS version 8 Cloud Slicing SCO for 1984-2003 exhibit remarkable agreement in monthly ensemble means to within 1-3 DU (1 - 1.5% of SCO) despite being independently-calibrated measurements. An important component of our study is to incorporate these column ozone measurements to investigate long-term trends for the period 1979-2003. Our study includes Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBW) version 8 measurements of upper stratospheric column ozone (i.e., zero to 32 hPa column ozone) to characterize seasonal cycles and seasonal trends in this region, as well as the lower stratosphere and troposphere when combined with TOMS SCO and total column ozone. The trend analyses suggest that most ozone reduction in the atmosphere since 1979 in mid-to-high latitudes has occurred in the Lower stratosphere below approx. 25 km. The delineation of upper and lower stratospheric column ozone indicate that trends in the upper stratosphere during the latter half of the 1979-2003 period have reduced to near zero globally, while trends in the lower stratosphere have become larger by approx. 5 DU decade%om the tropics extending to mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. For TCO, the trend analyses suggest moderate increases over the 25-year time record in the extra-tropics of both hemispheres of around 4-6 DU (Northern Hemisphere) and 6-8 DU (Southern Hemisphere).

Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowska, Miroslawa

2017-12-01

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.

U.S. Military Information Operations in Afghanistan: Effectiveness of Psychological Operations 2001-2010

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

of target audiences in conflictive areas. Survey research can provide quantitative baselines and trend analyses of key attitudes held by the target...qualitative research , rather than quantitative . .  .  . The PRT [provincial reconstruction team] conducted mis- sions almost daily during the time frame it was...opposed to national-level polls, which might not be representative of target audiences in conflictive areas). Survey research can provide quantitative

Smoke-free parks and beaches: an interrupted time-series study of behavioural impact in New York City.

PubMed

Johns, Michael; Farley, Shannon M; Rajulu, Deepa T; Kansagra, Susan M; Juster, Harlan R

2015-09-01

In 2011, New York City (NYC) parks and beaches became smoke-free. There is currently little research evaluating the impact of such laws on smoking behaviour at the population level. We used an interrupted time-series study design to analyse data from the New York State Adult Tobacco Survey to assess the law's impact using the rest of New York State as a comparison. Trends in how frequently respondents noticed people smoking in parks and beaches were analysed between the third quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2012, comparing NYC to the rest of the state. The trend in the frequency of NYC residents noticing people smoking in local parks and beaches decreased significantly over the six quarters after the law took effect. There was no comparable decline among residents in the rest of the state. An increase in the number of respondents who never noticed people smoking in NYC contributed to this decline. These results are consistent with previous studies and provide population-level evidence that suggest the law has reduced smoking in parks and on beaches. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis among European Economic Area populations, 1985-2009: the framework for monitoring

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A debate surrounding multiple sclerosis epidemiology has centred on time-related incidence increases and the need of monitoring. The purpose of this study is to reassess multiple sclerosis incidence in the European Economic Area. Methods We conducted a systematic review of literature from 1965 onwards and integrated elements of original research, including requested or completed data by surveys authors and specific analyses. Results The review of 5323 documents yielded ten studies for age- and sex-specific analyses, and 21 studies for time-trend analysis of single data sets. After 1985, the incidence of multiple sclerosis ranged from 1.12 to 6.96 per 100,000 population, was higher in females, tripled with latitude, and doubled with study midpoint year. The north registered increasing trends from the 1960s and 1970s, with a historic drop in the Faroe Islands, and fairly stable data in the period 1980-2000; incidence rose in Italian and French populations in the period 1970-2000, in Evros (Greece) in the 1980s, and in the French West Indies in around 2000. Conclusions We conclude that the increase in multiple sclerosis incidence is only apparent, and that it is not specific to women. Monitoring of multiple sclerosis incidence might be appropriate for the European Economic Area. PMID:23758972

Increasing Trends of Herpes Zoster in Australia

PubMed Central

MacIntyre, Raina; Stein, Alicia; Harrison, Christopher; Britt, Helena; Mahimbo, Abela; Cunningham, Anthony

2015-01-01

Background Increasing trends in incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) have been reported in Australia and internationally. This may reflect the impact of childhood VZV vaccination programs introduced universally in Australia in late 2005. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in incidence of HZ and PHN in Australia over time, and associated healthcare resource utilisation. Methods Australian data on general practice (GP) encounters for HZ, specific antiviral prescribing data from the pharmaceutical benefits scheme, emergency department presentations from the states of NSW and Victoria and national hospitalisation data for HZ were analysed for time trends using regression models. Two time periods (2000-2006 and 2006-2013) were compared which correspond broadly with the pre- and post- universal VZV vaccination period. Results All data sources showed increasing rates of HZ with age and over time. The GP database showed a significant annual increase in encounters for HZ of 2.5 per 100,000 between 1998 and 2013, and the rates of prescriptions for HZ increased by 4.2% per year between 2002 and 2012. In the 60+ population HZ incidence was estimated to increase from 11.9 to 15.4 per 1,000 persons using GP data or from 12.8 to 14.2 per 1,000 persons using prescription data (p<0.05, between the two periods). Hospitalisation data did not show the same increasing trend over time, except for the age group ≥80 years. Most emergency visits for HZ were not admitted, and showed significant increases over time. Discussion The burden of HZ in Australia is substantial, and continues to increase over time. This increase is seen both pre- and post-universal VZV vaccination in 2005, and is most prominent in the older population. The substantial burden of HZ, along with ageing of the Australian population and the importance of healthy ageing, warrants consideration of HZ vaccination for the elderly. PMID:25928713

Space-time analysis of snow cover change in the Romanian Carpathians (2001-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Cosmin Sandric, Ionut

2017-04-01

Snow cover is recognized as an essential climate variable, highly sensitive to the ongoing climate warming, which plays an important role in regulating mountain ecosystems. Evidence from the existing weather stations located above 800 m over the last 50 years points out that the climate of the Romanian Carpathians is visibly changing, showing an ongoing and consistent warming process. Quantifying and attributing the changes in snow cover on various spatial and temporal scales have a great environmental and socio-economic importance for this mountain region. The study is revealing the inter-seasonal changes in the timing and distribution of snow cover across the Romanian Carpathians, by combining gridded snow data (CARPATCLIM dataset, 1961-2010) and remote sensing data (2001-2016) in specific space-time assessment at regional scale. The geostatistical approach applied in this study, based on a GIS hotspot analysis, takes advantage of all the dimensions in the datasets, in order to understand the space-time trends in this climate variable at monthly time-scale. The MODIS AQUA and TERRA images available from 2001 to 2016 have been processed using ArcGIS for Desktop and Python programming language. All the images were masked out with the Carpathians boundary. Only the pixels with snow have been retained for analysis. The regional trends in snow cover distribution and timing have been analysed using Space-Time cube with ArcGIS for Desktop, according with Esri documentation using the Mann-Kendall trend test on every location with data as an independent bin time-series test. The study aimed also to assess the location of emerging hotspots of snow cover change in Carpathians. These hotspots have been calculated using Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for each bin using Hot Spot Analysis implemented in ArcGIS for Desktop. On regional scale, snow cover appear highly sensitive to the decreasing trends in air temperatures and land surface temperatures, combined with the decrease in seasonal precipitation, especially at lower elevations in all the three divisions of the Romanian Carpathians (generally below 1,700-1,800 m). The space-time patterns of snow cover change are dominated by a significant decreasing trend of snow days and earlier spring snow melt. The key findings of this study provides robust indication of a decreasing snow trends across the Carpathian Mountain region and could provide valuable spatial and temporal snow information for other related research fields as well as for an effective environmental monitoring in the mountain ecosystems of the Carpathian region

The bark of the branches of holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) for a retrospective study of trace elements in the atmosphere.

PubMed

Drava, Giuliana; Brignole, Daniele; Giordani, Paolo; Minganti, Vincenzo

2017-04-01

Tree bark has proved to be a useful bioindicator for trace elements in the atmosphere, however it reflects an exposure occurring during an unidentified period of time, so it provides spatial information about the distribution of contaminants in a certain area, but it cannot be used to detect temporal changes or trends, which is an important achievement in environmental studies. In order to obtain information about a known period of time, the bark collected from the annual segments of tree branches can be used, allowing analyses going back 10-15 years with annual resolution. In the present study, the concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured by atomic emission spectrometry in a series of samples covering the period from 2001 to 2013 in an urban environment. Downward time trends were significant for Cd, Pb and Zn. The only trace element showing an upward time trend was V. The concentrations of the remaining six trace elements were constant over time, showing that their presence in bark is not simply proportional to the duration of exposure. This approach, which is simple, reliable and widely applicable at a low cost, allows the "a posteriori" reconstruction of atmospheric trace element deposition when or where no monitoring programme is in progress and no other natural archives are available. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

Decreasing mortality and changes in treatment patterns in patients with acromegaly from a nationwide study.

PubMed

Esposito, Daniela; Ragnarsson, Oskar; Granfeldt, Daniel; Marlow, Tom; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Olsson, Daniel S

2018-05-01

New therapeutic strategies have developed for the management of acromegaly over recent decades. Whether this has improved mortality has not been fully elucidated. The primary aim was to investigate mortality in a nationwide unselected cohort of patients with acromegaly. Secondary analyses included time trends in mortality and treatment patterns. A total of 1089 patients with acromegaly were identified in Swedish National Health Registries between 1987 and 2013. To analyse time trends, the cohort was divided into three periods (1987-1995, 1996-2004 and 2005-2013) based on the year of diagnosis. Using the Swedish population as reference, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Overall SMR was 2.79 (95% CI: 2.43-3.15) with 232 observed and 83 expected deaths. Mortality was mainly related to circulatory diseases (SMR: 2.95, 95% CI: 2.35-3.55), including ischemic heart disease (2.00, 1.35-2.66) and cerebrovascular disease (3.99, 2.42-5.55) and malignancy (1.76, 1.27-2.26). Mortality decreased over time, with an SMR of 3.45 (2.87-4.02) and 1.86 (1.04-2.67) during the first and last time period, respectively ( P  = .015). During the same time periods, the frequency of pituitary surgery increased from 58% to 72% ( P  < 0.001) and the prevalence of hypopituitarism decreased from 41% to 23% ( P  < 0.001). Excess mortality was found in this nationwide cohort of patients with acromegaly, mainly related to circulatory and malignant diseases. Although still high, mortality significantly declined over time. This could be explained by the more frequent use of pituitary surgery, decreased prevalence of hypopituitarism and the availability of new medical treatment options. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

Text-mining analysis of mHealth research.

PubMed

Ozaydin, Bunyamin; Zengul, Ferhat; Oner, Nurettin; Delen, Dursun

2017-01-01

In recent years, because of the advancements in communication and networking technologies, mobile technologies have been developing at an unprecedented rate. mHealth, the use of mobile technologies in medicine, and the related research has also surged parallel to these technological advancements. Although there have been several attempts to review mHealth research through manual processes such as systematic reviews, the sheer magnitude of the number of studies published in recent years makes this task very challenging. The most recent developments in machine learning and text mining offer some potential solutions to address this challenge by allowing analyses of large volumes of texts through semi-automated processes. The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of mHealth research by utilizing text-mining and natural language processing (NLP) analyses. The study sample included abstracts of 5,644 mHealth research articles, which were gathered from five academic search engines by using search terms such as mobile health, and mHealth. The analysis used the Text Explorer module of JMP Pro 13 and an iterative semi-automated process involving tokenizing, phrasing, and terming. After developing the document term matrix (DTM) analyses such as single value decomposition (SVD), topic, and hierarchical document clustering were performed, along with the topic-informed document clustering approach. The results were presented in the form of word-clouds and trend analyses. There were several major findings regarding research clusters and trends. First, our results confirmed time-dependent nature of terminology use in mHealth research. For example, in earlier versus recent years the use of terminology changed from "mobile phone" to "smartphone" and from "applications" to "apps". Second, ten clusters for mHealth research were identified including (I) Clinical Research on Lifestyle Management, (II) Community Health, (III) Literature Review, (IV) Medical Interventions, (V) Research Design, (VI) Infrastructure, (VII) Applications, (VIII) Research and Innovation in Health Technologies, (IX) Sensor-based Devices and Measurement Algorithms, (X) Survey-based Research. Third, the trend analyses indicated the infrastructure cluster as the highest percentage researched area until 2014. The Research and Innovation in Health Technologies cluster experienced the largest increase in numbers of publications in recent years, especially after 2014. This study is unique because it is the only known study utilizing text-mining analyses to reveal the streams and trends for mHealth research. The fast growth in mobile technologies is expected to lead to higher numbers of studies focusing on mHealth and its implications for various healthcare outcomes. Findings of this study can be utilized by researchers in identifying areas for future studies.

Text-mining analysis of mHealth research

PubMed Central

Zengul, Ferhat; Oner, Nurettin; Delen, Dursun

2017-01-01

In recent years, because of the advancements in communication and networking technologies, mobile technologies have been developing at an unprecedented rate. mHealth, the use of mobile technologies in medicine, and the related research has also surged parallel to these technological advancements. Although there have been several attempts to review mHealth research through manual processes such as systematic reviews, the sheer magnitude of the number of studies published in recent years makes this task very challenging. The most recent developments in machine learning and text mining offer some potential solutions to address this challenge by allowing analyses of large volumes of texts through semi-automated processes. The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of mHealth research by utilizing text-mining and natural language processing (NLP) analyses. The study sample included abstracts of 5,644 mHealth research articles, which were gathered from five academic search engines by using search terms such as mobile health, and mHealth. The analysis used the Text Explorer module of JMP Pro 13 and an iterative semi-automated process involving tokenizing, phrasing, and terming. After developing the document term matrix (DTM) analyses such as single value decomposition (SVD), topic, and hierarchical document clustering were performed, along with the topic-informed document clustering approach. The results were presented in the form of word-clouds and trend analyses. There were several major findings regarding research clusters and trends. First, our results confirmed time-dependent nature of terminology use in mHealth research. For example, in earlier versus recent years the use of terminology changed from “mobile phone” to “smartphone” and from “applications” to “apps”. Second, ten clusters for mHealth research were identified including (I) Clinical Research on Lifestyle Management, (II) Community Health, (III) Literature Review, (IV) Medical Interventions, (V) Research Design, (VI) Infrastructure, (VII) Applications, (VIII) Research and Innovation in Health Technologies, (IX) Sensor-based Devices and Measurement Algorithms, (X) Survey-based Research. Third, the trend analyses indicated the infrastructure cluster as the highest percentage researched area until 2014. The Research and Innovation in Health Technologies cluster experienced the largest increase in numbers of publications in recent years, especially after 2014. This study is unique because it is the only known study utilizing text-mining analyses to reveal the streams and trends for mHealth research. The fast growth in mobile technologies is expected to lead to higher numbers of studies focusing on mHealth and its implications for various healthcare outcomes. Findings of this study can be utilized by researchers in identifying areas for future studies. PMID:29430456

Using Generalized Additive Models to Analyze Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Sullivan, Kristynn

2013-01-01

Many analyses for single-case designs (SCDs)--including nearly all the effect size indicators-- currently assume no trend in the data. Regression and multilevel models allow for trend, but usually test only linear trend and have no principled way of knowing if higher order trends should be represented in the model. This paper shows how Generalized…

Spatial Distribution of Trends and Seasonality in the Hemispheric Sea Ice Covers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloersen, P.; Parkinson, C. L.; Cavalieri, D. J.; Cosmiso, J. C.; Zwally, H. J.

1998-01-01

We extend earlier analyses of a 9-year sea ice data set that described the local seasonal and trend variations in each of the hemispheric sea ice covers to the recently merged 18.2-year sea ice record from four satellite instruments. The seasonal cycle characteristics remain essentially the same as for the shorter time series, but the local trends are markedly different, in some cases reversing sign. The sign reversal reflects the lack of a consistent long-term trend and could be the result of localized long-term oscillations in the hemispheric sea ice covers. By combining the separate hemispheric sea ice records into a global one, we have shown that there are statistically significant net decreases in the sea ice coverage on a global scale. The change in the global sea ice extent, is -0.01 +/- 0.003 x 10(exp 6) sq km per decade. The decrease in the areal coverage of the sea ice is only slightly smaller, so that the difference in the two, the open water within the packs, has no statistically significant change.

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected sites at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1949-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholomay, Roy C.; Davis, Linda C.; Fisher, Jason C.; Tucker, Betty J.; Raben, Flint A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, analyzed water-quality data collected from 67 aquifer wells and 7 surface-water sites at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) from 1949 through 2009. The data analyzed included major cations, anions, nutrients, trace elements, and total organic carbon. The analyses were performed to examine water-quality trends that might inform future management decisions about the number of wells to sample at the INL and the type of constituents to monitor. Water-quality trends were determined using (1) the nonparametric Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p-value, Theil-Sen slope estimator, and summary statistics for uncensored data; and (2) the Kaplan-Meier method for calculating summary statistics, Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p-value, and Akritas-Theil-Sen slope estimator for robust linear regression for censored data. Statistical analyses for chloride concentrations indicate that groundwater influenced by Big Lost River seepage has decreasing chloride trends or, in some cases, has variable chloride concentration changes that correlate with above-average and below-average periods of recharge. Analyses of trends for chloride in water samples from four sites located along the Big Lost River indicate a decreasing trend or no trend for chloride, and chloride concentrations generally are much lower at these four sites than those in the aquifer. Above-average and below-average periods of recharge also affect concentration trends for sodium, sulfate, nitrate, and a few trace elements in several wells. Analyses of trends for constituents in water from several of the wells that is mostly regionally derived groundwater generally indicate increasing trends for chloride, sodium, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations. These increases are attributed to agricultural or other anthropogenic influences on the aquifer upgradient of the INL. Statistical trends of chemical constituents from several wells near the Naval Reactors Facility may be influenced by wastewater disposal at the facility or by anthropogenic influence from the Little Lost River basin. Groundwater samples from three wells downgradient of the Power Burst Facility area show increasing trends for chloride, nitrate, sodium, and sulfate concentrations. The increases could be caused by wastewater disposal in the Power Burst Facility area. Some groundwater samples in the southwestern part of the INL and southwest of the INL show concentration trends for chloride and sodium that may be influenced by wastewater disposal. Some of the groundwater samples have decreasing trends that could be attributed to the decreasing concentrations in the wastewater from the late 1970s to 2009. The young fraction of groundwater in many of the wells is more than 20 years old, so samples collected in the early 1990s are more representative of groundwater discharged in the 1960s and 1970s, when concentrations in wastewater were much higher. Groundwater sampled in 2009 would be representative of the lower concentrations of chloride and sodium in wastewater discharged in the late 1980s. Analyses of trends for sodium in several groundwater samples from the central and southern part of the eastern Snake River aquifer show increasing trends. In most cases, however, the sodium concentrations are less than background concentrations measured in the aquifer. Many of the wells are open to larger mixed sections of the aquifer, and the increasing trends may indicate that the long history of wastewater disposal in the central part of the INL is increasing sodium concentrations in the groundwater.

Chapter 37: Population Trends of the Marbled Murrelet Projected From Demographic Analyses

Treesearch

Steven B. Beissinger

1995-01-01

A demographic model of the Marbled Murrelet is developed to explore likely population trends and factors influencing them. The model was structured to use field data on juvenile ratios, collected near the end of the breeding season and corrected for date of census, to estimate fecundity. Survivorship was estimated for the murrelet based on comparative analyses of...

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Secular trend, seasonality and effects of a community-based intervention on neonatal mortality: follow-up of a cluster-randomised trial in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Eriksson, Leif; Nga, Nguyen T; Hoa, Dinh T Phuong; Duc, Duong M; Bergström, Anna; Wallin, Lars; Målqvist, Mats; Ewald, Uwe; Huy, Tran Q; Thuy, Nguyen T; Do, Tran Thanh; Lien, Pham T L; Persson, Lars-Åke; Selling, Katarina Ekholm

2018-05-15

Little is know about whether the effects of community engagement interventions for child survival in low-income and middle-income settings are sustained. Seasonal variation and secular trend may blur the data. Neonatal mortality was reduced in a cluster-randomised trial in Vietnam where laywomen facilitated groups composed of local stakeholders employing a problem-solving approach for 3 years. In this analysis, we aim at disentangling the secular trend, the seasonal variation and the effect of the intervention on neonatal mortality during and after the trial. In Quang Ninh province, 44 communes were allocated to intervention and 46 to control. Births and neonatal deaths were assessed in a baseline survey in 2005, monitored during the trial in 2008-2011 and followed up by a survey in 2014. Time series analyses were performed on monthly neonatal mortality data. There were 30 187 live births and 480 neonatal deaths. The intervention reduced the neonatal mortality from 19.1 to 11.6 per 1000 live births. The reduction was sustained 3 years after the trial. The control areas reached a similar level at the time of follow-up. Time series decomposition analysis revealed a downward trend in the intervention areas during the trial that was not found in the control areas. Neonatal mortality peaked in the hot and wet summers. A community engagement intervention resulted in a lower neonatal mortality rate that was sustained but not further reduced after the end of the trial. When decomposing time series of neonatal mortality, a clear downward trend was demonstrated in intervention but not in control areas. ISRCTN44599712, Post-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

Changes in the Associations of Heavy Drinking and Drug Use with Intimate Partner Violence in Early Adulthood

PubMed Central

Feingold, Alan; Washburn, Isaac J.; Tiberio, Stacey S.; Capaldi, Deborah M.

2013-01-01

The hypothesis that the disinhibitory effects induced by alcohol consumption contribute to domestic violence has gained support from meta-analyses of mainly cross-sectional studies that examined the association between alcohol abuse and perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV). However, findings from multilevel analyses of longitudinal data investigating the time-varying effects of heavy episodic drinking (HED) on physical IPV have been equivocal. This 12-year prospective study used multilevel analysis to examine the effects of HED and illicit drug use on perpetration of both physical and psychological IPV during early adulthood. Participants were 157 romantic couples who were assessed biennially 2 to 6 times for substance misuse and IPV. The analyses found no significant main effect of either HED or drug use on perpetration of IPV but there were significant interactions of both HED and drug use with age. Moreover, the developmental trends in substance use effects on IPV typically varied by gender and type of IPV. PMID:25678737

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975-2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Solbraa, Ane Kristiansen; Holme, Ingar Morten; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Resaland, Geir Kåre; Aadland, Eivind; Anderssen, Sigmund Alfred

2014-06-07

Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975-2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975–2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Methods Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975–2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Results Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Conclusions Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP. PMID:24906521

Low validity of Google Trends for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates

PubMed Central

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Voracek, Martin

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that search volumes of the most popular search engine worldwide, Google, provided via Google Trends, could be associated with national suicide rates in the USA, UK, and some Asian countries. However, search volumes have mostly been studied in an ad hoc fashion, without controls for spurious associations. This study evaluated the validity and utility of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of suicide rates in the USA, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Suicide-related search terms were systematically collected and respective Google Trends search volumes evaluated for availability. Time spans covered 2004 to 2010 (USA, Switzerland) and 2004 to 2012 (Germany, Austria). Temporal associations of search volumes and suicide rates were investigated with time-series analyses that rigorously controlled for spurious associations. The number and reliability of analyzable search volume data increased with country size. Search volumes showed various temporal associations with suicide rates. However, associations differed both across and within countries and mostly followed no discernable patterns. The total number of significant associations roughly matched the number of expected Type I errors. These results suggest that the validity of Google Trends search volumes for behavioral forecasting of national suicide rates is low. The utility and validity of search volumes for the forecasting of suicide rates depend on two key assumptions (“the population that conducts searches consists mostly of individuals with suicidal ideation”, “suicide-related search behavior is strongly linked with suicidal behavior”). We discuss strands of evidence that these two assumptions are likely not met. Implications for future research with Google Trends in the context of suicide research are also discussed. PMID:28813490

Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

PubMed

Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

2016-09-01

Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (p<0.005). The proportion of movies depicting tobacco consumption during the three decades was 36% (1982-1991), 60% (1992-2001) and 74% (2002-2011), respectively. The average proportion of total movie time for these depictions (0.75%, 1.41%, 2.08%) increased significantly (p<0.005) over the 3 decades as did the average duration of smoking depictions,(39.1, 67 and 99.3 s, respectively, p<0.005). The significant increase in the proportion of movies depicting tobacco consumption and in the duration of smoking depictions over the past 30 years underscores the need for increased regulation of the Iranian film industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Patterns in Patient Access and Utilization of Online Medical Records: Analysis of MyChart.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A; Kraus, Nicole C

2018-02-06

Electronic patient portals provide a new method for sharing personal medical information with individual patients. Our aim was to review utilization patterns of the largest online patient portal in Canada's largest city. We conducted a 4-year time-trend analysis of aggregated anonymous utilization data of the MyChart patient portal at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Ontario, Canada, from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2015. Prespecified analyses examined trends related to day (weekend vs weekday), season (July vs January), year (2012 vs 2015), and an extreme adverse weather event (ice storm of December 20-26, 2013). Primary endpoints included three measures of patient portal activity: registrations, logins, and pageviews. We identified 32,325 patients who registered for a MyChart account during the study interval. Time-trend analysis showed no sign of attenuating registrations over time. Logins were frequent, averaged 734 total per day, and showed an increasing trend over time. Pageviews mirrored logins, averaged about 3029 total per day, and equated to about 5 pageviews during the average login. The most popular pageviews were clinical notes, followed by laboratory results and medical imaging reports. All measures of patient activity were lower on weekends compared to weekdays (P<.001) yet showed no significant changes related to seasons or extreme weather. No major security breach, malware attack, or software failure occurred during the study. Online patient portals can provide a popular and reliable system for distributing personal medical information to active patients and may merit consideration for hospitals. ©Donald A Redelmeier, Nicole C Kraus. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 06.02.2018.

Physical Activity During Pregnancy and Subsequent Risk of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Case Control Study.

PubMed

Spracklen, Cassandra N; Ryckman, Kelli K; Triche, Elizabeth W; Saftlas, Audrey F

2016-06-01

Physical activity (PA) is hypothesized to reduce the risk of preeclampsia, but few epidemiologic studies have simultaneously evaluated leisure time PA (LTPA), sedentary activity, occupational activity, and non-occupational, non-leisure time PA. Thus, we assessed the independent and combined effects of these different types of PA during pregnancy on preeclampsia and gestational hypertension risk. Preeclamptic (n = 258), gestational hypertensive (n = 233), and normotensive (n = 182) women identified from Iowa live birth records (2002-2005) were participants in Study of Pregnancy Hypertension in Iowa. Disease status was verified by medical chart review. All PA exposures were self-reported. Multinomial logistic regression was used to test for associations between various PA types and risk for preeclampsia or gestational hypertension. After adjusting for prepregnancy BMI, increasing levels of LTPA were associated with a reduced risk of preeclampsia (trend, p = 0.02). Additionally, increasing amount of time spent active each day was associated with decreasing risks for preeclampsia (adjusted, trend; p = 0.03). Increasing amount of time spent sitting per day was associated with an increasing risk of preeclampsia (adjusted, trend; p = 0.10). Women whose activity averaged >8.25 h per day were at a significantly reduced risk of preeclampsia relative to women active <4.2 h per day (adjusted OR 0.58, 95 % CI 0.36, 0.95). Most analyses evaluating the risk of gestational hypertension yielded null results or results that trended in the direction opposite of the preeclampsia results. Consistent with previous studies, these data suggest increasing PA during pregnancy may reduce preeclampsia risk while increasing levels of sedentary activity may increase disease risk.

Empirical analyses on the development trend of non-ferrous metal industry under China’s new normal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C. X.; Liu, C. X.; Zhang, Q. L.

2017-08-01

The CGE model of Yunnan’s macro economy was constructed based on the input-output data of Yunnan in 2012, and the development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) under the China’s new normal was simulated. In view of this, according to different expected economic growth, and optimized economic structure, the impact on development of Yunnan NMI was simulated. The results show that the NMI growth rate is expected to decline when the economic growth show a downward trend, but the change of the proportion is relatively small. Moreover, the structure in proportion was adjusted to realize the economic structure optimization, while the proportion of NMI in GDP will decline. In contrast, the biggest influence on the NMI is the change of economic structure. From the statistics of last two years, we can see that NMI is growing, and at the same time, its proportion is declining, which is consistent with the results of simulation. But the adjustment of economic structure will take a long time. It is need to improve the proportion of deep-processing industry, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain, so as to be made good use of resource advantage.

Decadal trends in Indian Ocean ambient sound.

PubMed

Miksis-Olds, Jennifer L; Bradley, David L; Niu, Xiaoyue Maggie

2013-11-01

The increase of ocean noise documented in the North Pacific has sparked concern on whether the observed increases are a global or regional phenomenon. This work provides evidence of low frequency sound increases in the Indian Ocean. A decade (2002-2012) of recordings made off the island of Diego Garcia, UK in the Indian Ocean was parsed into time series according to frequency band and sound level. Quarterly sound level comparisons between the first and last years were also performed. The combination of time series and temporal comparison analyses over multiple measurement parameters produced results beyond those obtainable from a single parameter analysis. The ocean sound floor has increased over the past decade in the Indian Ocean. Increases were most prominent in recordings made south of Diego Garcia in the 85-105 Hz band. The highest sound level trends differed between the two sides of the island; the highest sound levels decreased in the north and increased in the south. Rate, direction, and magnitude of changes among the multiple parameters supported interpretation of source functions driving the trends. The observed sound floor increases are consistent with concurrent increases in shipping, wind speed, wave height, and blue whale abundance in the Indian Ocean.

Characteristics of young children with developmental delays and their trends over 14 years in Taiwan: a population-based nationwide study.

PubMed

Lai, Der-Chung; Tseng, Yen-Cheng; Guo, How-Ran

2018-05-08

To describe the epidemiological characteristics of developmental delays (DD) at the national level and assess the changes over time. We calculated the incidence rates of DD from 2003 to 2016 and assessed the trends over time. As dictated by law, local governments in Taiwan are required to register children with DD and provide services. The central government has constructed a national registry with the data from local centres. We analysed the national registry data. We included children who were under 6 years old, and this population ranged from 1 164 150 to 1 577 443 per year during the study period. All registered cases were certified through a process set forth by law. We calculated annual incidence rates by age, sex and geographical area, and assessed trends over the study period. The incidence of DD in children under 6 years old displayed an increasing trend over the study period, ranging from 7.0 to 16.3 per 1000 person-years. Boys had higher incidence throughout all 14 years, and the boy-to-girl rate ratios had an increasing trend over time with some fluctuations, ranging from 1.84 (95% CI 1.77 to 1.92) to 1.99 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.06). In addition, rural areas had higher incidence rates, and the rural to urban rate ratios ranged from 0.98 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.03) to 2.00 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.06) without apparent time trends. Girls had a higher proportion of early reporting (<3 years) throughout all years, but the differences in the proportion of early reporting between rural and urban areas were not consistent. Male sex appeared to be a risk factor for DD, which is unlikely to be due to more attention received by boys because girls had a higher proportion of early reporting. We also found that children lived in rural areas appeared to have a higher risk of having DD. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Trends in Consumption of Solid Fats, Added Sugars, Sodium, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, and Fruit from Fast Food Restaurants and by Fast Food Restaurant Type among US Children, 2003-2010.

PubMed

Rehm, Colin D; Drewnowski, Adam

2016-12-13

Energy intakes from fast food restaurants (FFRs) have declined among US children. Less is known about the corresponding trends for FFR-sourced solid fats, added sugars, and sodium, and food groups of interest, such as fruit and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Using data from a single 24-h dietary recall among 12,378 children aged 4-19 years from four consecutive cycles of the nationally-representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2003-2010 a custom algorithm segmented FFRs into burger, pizza, sandwich, Mexican cuisine, chicken, Asian cuisine, fish restaurants, and coffee shops. There was a significant population-wide decline in FFR-sourced solid fats (-32 kcal/day, p -trend < 0.001), added sugars (-16 kcal/day; p -trend < 0.001), SSBs (-0.12 servings (12 fluid ounces or 355 mL)/day; p -trend < 0.001), and sodium (-166 mg/day; p -trend < 0.001). Declines were observed when restricted to fast food consumers alone. Sharp declines were observed for pizza restaurants; added sugars, solid fats, and SSBs declined significantly from burger restaurants. Fruit did not change for fast food restaurants overall. Temporal analyses of fast food consumption trends by restaurant type allow for more precise monitoring of the quality of children's diets than can be obtained from analyses of menu offerings. Such analyses can inform public health interventions and policy measures.

Trends in Consumption of Solid Fats, Added Sugars, Sodium, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, and Fruit from Fast Food Restaurants and by Fast Food Restaurant Type among US Children, 2003–2010

PubMed Central

Rehm, Colin D.; Drewnowski, Adam

2016-01-01

Energy intakes from fast food restaurants (FFRs) have declined among US children. Less is known about the corresponding trends for FFR-sourced solid fats, added sugars, and sodium, and food groups of interest, such as fruit and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Using data from a single 24-h dietary recall among 12,378 children aged 4–19 years from four consecutive cycles of the nationally-representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2003–2010 a custom algorithm segmented FFRs into burger, pizza, sandwich, Mexican cuisine, chicken, Asian cuisine, fish restaurants, and coffee shops. There was a significant population-wide decline in FFR-sourced solid fats (−32 kcal/day, p-trend < 0.001), added sugars (−16 kcal/day; p-trend < 0.001), SSBs (−0.12 servings (12 fluid ounces or 355 mL)/day; p-trend < 0.001), and sodium (−166 mg/day; p-trend < 0.001). Declines were observed when restricted to fast food consumers alone. Sharp declines were observed for pizza restaurants; added sugars, solid fats, and SSBs declined significantly from burger restaurants. Fruit did not change for fast food restaurants overall. Temporal analyses of fast food consumption trends by restaurant type allow for more precise monitoring of the quality of children’s diets than can be obtained from analyses of menu offerings. Such analyses can inform public health interventions and policy measures. PMID:27983573

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected wells possibly influenced by wastewater disposal at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1981-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Linda C.; Bartholomay, Roy C.; Fisher, Jason C.; Maimer, Neil V.

2015-01-01

Volatile organic compound concentration trends were analyzed for nine aquifer wells. Trend test results indicated an increasing trend for carbon tetrachloride for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Production Well for the period 1987–2012; however, trend analyses of data collected since 2005 show no statistically significant trend indicating that engineering practices designed to reduce movement of volatile organic compounds to the aquifer may be having a positive effect on the aquifer.

Daylight savings time and myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Sandhu, Amneet; Seth, Milan; Gurm, Hitinder S

2014-01-01

Prior research has shown a transient increase in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after daylight savings time (DST) in the spring as well as a decrease in AMI after returning to standard time in the fall. These findings have not been verified in a broader population and if extant, may have significant public health and policy implications. We assessed changes in admissions for AMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) database for the weeks following the four spring and three fall DST changes between March 2010 and September 2013. A negative binomial regression model was used to adjust for trend and seasonal variation. There was no difference in the total weekly number of PCIs performed for AMI for either the fall or spring time changes in the time period analysed. After adjustment for trend and seasonal effects, the Monday following spring time changes was associated with a 24% increase in daily AMI counts (p=0.011), and the Tuesday following fall changes was conversely associated with a 21% reduction (p=0.044). No other weekdays in the weeks following DST changes demonstrated significant associations. In the week following the seasonal time change, DST impacts the timing of presentations for AMI but does not influence the overall incidence of this disease.

Monitoring vegetation dynamics with medium resolution MODIS-EVI time series at sub-regional scale in southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubovyk, Olena; Landmann, Tobias; Erasmus, Barend F. N.; Tewes, Andreas; Schellberg, Jürgen

2015-06-01

Currently there is a lack of knowledge on spatio-temporal patterns of land surface dynamics at medium spatial scale in southern Africa, even though this information is essential for better understanding of ecosystem response to climatic variability and human-induced land transformations. In this study, we analysed vegetation dynamics across a large area in southern Africa using the 14-years (2000-2013) of medium spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS-EVI time-series data. Specifically, we investigated temporal changes in the time series of key phenometrics including overall greenness, peak and timing of annual greenness over the monitoring period and study region. In order to specifically capture spatial and per pixel vegetation changes over time, we calculated trends in these phenometrics using a robust trend analysis method. The results showed that interannual vegetation dynamics followed precipitation patterns with clearly differentiated seasonality. The earliest peak greenness during 2000-2013 occurred at the end of January in the year 2000 and the latest peak greenness was observed at the mid of March in 2012. Specifically spatial patterns of long-term vegetation trends allowed mapping areas of (i) decrease or increase in overall greenness, (ii) decrease or increase of peak greenness, and (iii) shifts in timing of occurrence of peak greenness over the 14-year monitoring period. The observed vegetation decline in the study area was mainly attributed to human-induced factors. The obtained information is useful to guide selection of field sites for detailed vegetation studies and land rehabilitation interventions and serve as an input for a range of land surface models.

Intergenerational changes in birth parameters in Kraków (Poland) in the context of socio-economic transformation from 1985-2010.

PubMed

Kryst, Lukasz

2014-01-01

Analyses of birth parameters worldwide reveal relatively high variability over time, often related to socioeconomic factors. The aim was to determine the existence of inter-generational changes in birth parameters in Kraków (Poland) in recent years and factors responsible. This research analysed data on 7800 newborns (e.g. body length and weight) and their parents in the years 1985-2010. The significance of differences was calculated using ANOVA. To examine the potential effect of environmental factors, MANOVA were used. In the case of birth weight no significant changes were observed. A significant decreasing tendency in birth length from the beginning of the 21st century was shown - this observation is quite rare. Accordingly, BMI increased significantly in the 2000s. A decreasing tendency was observed for head circumference. In the analysed period Poland experienced significant socio-economic changes, which could have partly contributed to the observed changes. Some of the observed trends in birth parameters are recent phenomena and it seems necessary to continue the research to confirm if these changes form a steady trend or are only temporary. Tracking any phenomena related to the development is important for the determination of disruptive factors and the reduction of their adverse effects.

Using permutation tests to enhance causal inference in interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel

2018-06-01

Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) is an evaluation methodology in which a single treatment unit's outcome is studied serially over time and the intervention is expected to "interrupt" the level and/or trend of that outcome. The internal validity is strengthened considerably when the treated unit is contrasted with a comparable control group. In this paper, we introduce a robustness check based on permutation tests to further improve causal inference. We evaluate the effect of California's Proposition 99 for reducing cigarette sales by iteratively casting each nontreated state into the role of "treated," creating a comparable control group using the ITSAMATCH package in Stata, and then evaluating treatment effects using ITSA regression. If statistically significant "treatment effects" are estimated for pseudotreated states, then any significant changes in the outcome of the actual treatment unit (California) cannot be attributed to the intervention. We perform these analyses setting the cutpoint significance level to P > .40 for identifying balanced matches (the highest threshold possible for which controls could still be found for California) and use the difference in differences of trends as the treatment effect estimator. Only California attained a statistically significant treatment effect, strengthening confidence in the conclusion that Proposition 99 reduced cigarette sales. The proposed permutation testing framework provides an additional robustness check to either support or refute a treatment effect identified in for the true treated unit in ITSA. Given its value and ease of implementation, this framework should be considered as a standard robustness test in all multiple group interrupted time series analyses. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Indicator saturation: a novel approach to detect multiple breaks in geodetic time series.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. P.; Pretis, F.; Williams, S. D. P.

2016-12-01

Geodetic time series can record long term trends, quasi-periodic signals at a variety of time scales from days to decades, and sudden breaks due to natural or anthropogenic causes. The causes of breaks range from instrument replacement to earthquakes to unknown (i.e. no attributable cause). Furthermore, breaks can be permanent or short-lived and range at least two orders of magnitude in size (mm to 100's mm). To account for this range of possible signal-characteristics requires a flexible time series method that can distinguish between true and false breaks, outliers and time-varying trends. One such method, Indicator Saturation (IS) comes from the field of econometrics where analysing stochastic signals in these terms is a common problem. The IS approach differs from alternative break detection methods by considering every point in the time series as a break until it is demonstrated statistically that it is not. A linear model is constructed with a break function at every point in time, and all but statistically significant breaks are removed through a general-to-specific model selection algorithm for more variables than observations. The IS method is flexible because it allows multiple breaks of different forms (e.g. impulses, shifts in the mean, and changing trends) to be detected, while simultaneously modelling any underlying variation driven by additional covariates. We apply the IS method to identify breaks in a suite of synthetic GPS time series used for the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiments (DOGEX). We optimise the method to maximise the ratio of true-positive to false-positive detections, which improves estimates of errors in the long term rates of land motion currently required by the GPS community.

Striking trends in the incidence of health problems in The Netherlands (2002-05). Findings from a new strategy for surveillance in general practice.

PubMed

Biermans, Marion C J; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Verheij, Robert A; de Bakker, Dinny H; de Vries Robbé, Pieter F; Zielhuis, Gerhard A

2009-06-01

This study aimed to detect striking trends based on a new strategy for monitoring public health. We used data over 4 years from electronic medical records of a large, nationally representative network of general practices. Episodes were either directly recorded by general practitioners (GPs) or were constructed using a new record linkage method (EPICON). The episodes were used to estimate raw morbidity rates for all codes of the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC). Multilevel Poisson regression models were used to analyse the trend over time for 15 health problems that showed an obvious change over time. Based on these models, we calculated adjusted incidence rates corrected for clustering, sex and age. During 2002-05, both men and women increasingly consulted the GP because of concern about a drug reaction, a change in faeces/bowel movements and urination problems. Men showed an increase in consultations for prostate problems and venereal diseases. The incidence of chronic internal knee derangement decreased for both sexes. Women consulted their GP less frequently about sterilization and fear of being pregnant. The strategy developed proved to be useful to detect trends across a short period of time. Changes in the health care market, such as the increasing availability of over-the-counter drugs and various large advertising campaigns for medications may explain some of the findings. The increasing incidence of health problems in the urogenital area deserves attention as it could reflect increases in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and urinary tract infections.

Improved HIV Awareness and Perceived Empowerment to Negotiate Safe Sex among Married Women in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2011

PubMed Central

De Coninck, Zaake; Feyissa, Ibrahim A.; Ekström, Anna Mia; Marrone, Gaetano

2014-01-01

Introduction The HIV prevalence rate in Ethiopia for married (or cohabiting) women is 3 times that found amongst women who have never been married. While marriage used to be seen as a protective factor against HIV, evidence suggests that this is no longer necessarily the case. This study analyses the trend and socio-demographic determinants of HIV awareness and safe sex negotiation among married women in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2011. Methods Data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2005 and in 2011 were analysed. Socio-demographic variables as well as ‘survey year’ were selected to assess their interaction with selected HIV awareness and safe sex negotiation indicators. Multivariable regression analyses were performed. Odds ratios and confidence intervals were computed. Results A significant increase in knowledge of HIV and ability to negotiate safer sex occurred between 2005 and 2011 reflecting a positive trend in gender empowerment amongst married Ethiopian women. Some of these advancements were striking, for instance respondents were 3.6 times more likely to have “Heard of AIDS” in 2011 than in 2005. HIV awareness and safer sex negotiation were significantly associated with higher education, higher socioeconomic status, those who had heard of HIV, those of the Orthodox Christian faith, and (to some extent) those living in rural areas. Conclusion HIV awareness has increased significantly in Ethiopia over the last decade but married women are still disproportionately susceptible to HIV. Community programmes, already effective in Ethiopia, also need to target this vulnerable sub-group of women. PMID:25506823

Ecohydrological index, native fish, and climate trends and relationships in the Kansas River basin

EPA Science Inventory

This study sought to quantify climatological and hydrological trends and their relationship to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) ...

The Use of Mind-body Medicine in Chronic Pain Management: Differential Trends and Session-by-Session Changes in Anxiety

PubMed Central

Cosio, David; Swaroop, Sujata

2016-01-01

The evidence to date suggests that the use of mind-body medicine in chronic pain management can improve physical and psychological symptoms. However, past research evidence has largely relied on global measures of distress at pre- and post-intervention. Even though it is plausible that reported anxiety occurs in the context of pain, there is also evidence to suggest a reciprocal relationship. Thus, the purpose of the current study was to determine the differential impact that mind-body medical interventions have on anxiety among Veterans with chronic, non-cancer pain. The current study utilized multiple, repeated assessments of anxiety to better understand changes made over time between two mind-body interventions (Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)) used for chronic pain management. Ninety-six Veterans elected to participate in either intervention following the completion of a pain health education program at a Midwestern VA Medical Center between November 3, 2009–November 4, 2010. A 2 × 7 repeated measures multivariate analyses of variance indicated significantly lower levels of global distress by the end of both the ACT and CBT interventions. Trend analysis revealed differential patterns of change in levels of anxiety over time. Helmert contrast analyses found several modules of ACT were statistically different than the overall mean of previous sessions. Implications related to timing and patterns of change for the interventions are discussed. PMID:27158683

Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.

2009-09-30

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M&T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M&Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance tomore » support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M&Ts. The M&Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M&Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M&Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M&T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.« less

Speed of response in ultrabrief and brief pulse width right unilateral ECT.

PubMed

Loo, Colleen K; Garfield, Joshua B B; Katalinic, Natalie; Schweitzer, Isaac; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan

2013-05-01

Ultrabrief pulse width stimulation electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) results in less cognitive side-effects than brief pulse ECT, but recent work suggests that more treatment sessions may be required to achieve similar efficacy. In this retrospective analysis of subjects pooled from three research studies, time to improvement was analysed in 150 depressed subjects who received right unilateral ECT with a brief pulse width (at five times seizure threshold) or ultrabrief pulse width (at six times seizure threshold). Multivariate Cox regression analyses compared the number of treatments required for 50% reduction in depression scores (i.e. speed of response) in these two samples. The analyses controlled for clinical, demographic and treatment variables that differed between the samples or that were found to be significant predictors of speed of response in univariate analyses. In the multivariate analysis, older age predicted faster speed of response. There was a non-significant trend for faster time to 50% improvement with brief pulse ECT (p = 0.067). Remission rates were higher after brief pulse ECT than ultrabrief pulse ECT (p = 0.007) but response rates were similar. This study, the largest of its kind reported to date, suggests that fewer treatments may be needed to attain response with brief than ultrabrief pulse ECT and that remission rates are higher with brief pulse ECT. Further research with a larger randomized and blinded study is recommended.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986-2005.

PubMed

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-02-27

Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 - 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986-2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986–2005

PubMed Central

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-01-01

Background Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 – 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. Methods We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986–2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Results Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Conclusion Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group. PMID:19250535

Evaluation of a national data set for insights into sources, composition, and concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in U.S. drinking water.

PubMed

Guelfo, Jennifer L; Adamson, David T

2018-05-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) completed nationwide screening of six perfluoroalkyl substances in U.S. drinking water from 2013 to 2015 under the Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR3). UCMR3 efforts yielded a dataset of 36,139 samples containing analytical results from >5000 public water systems (PWSs). This study used UCMR3 data to investigate three aspects of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in drinking water: the occurrence of PFAS and co-contaminant mixtures, trends in PFAS detections relative to PWS characteristics and potential release types, and temporal trends in PFAS occurrence. This was achieved through bivariate and multivariate analyses including categorical analysis, concentration ratios, and hierarchical cluster analysis. Approximately 50% of samples with PFAS detections contained ≥2 PFASs, and 72% of detections occurred in groundwater. Large PWSs (>10,000 customers) were 5.6 times more likely than small PWSs (≤10,000 customers) to exhibit PFAS detections; however, when detected, median total PFAS concentrations were higher in small PWSs (0.12 μg/L) than in large (0.053 μg/L). Bivariate and multivariate analyses of PFAS composition suggested PWSs reflect impacts due to firefighting foam use and WWTP effluent as compared to other source types for which data were available. Mann-Kendall analysis of quarterly total PFAS detection rates indicated an increasing trend over time (p = 0.03). UCMR3 data provide a foundation for tiered design of targeted sampling and analysis plans to address remaining knowledge gaps in the sources, composition, and concentrations of PFASs in U.S. drinking water. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time Trends and Geographical Distribution of Childhood Leukaemia in Basrah, Iraq, from 2004 to 2009

PubMed Central

Alrudainy, Laith A; Hassan, Jenan G; Salih, Hussam M; Abbas, Mohammed K; Majeed, Athar AS

2011-01-01

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the incidence and trend of childhood leukaemia in Basrah. Methods: This was a hospital-based cancer registry study carried out at the Pediatric Oncology Ward, Maternity & Children’s Hospital and other institutes in Basrah, Iraq. All children with leukaemia, aged 0 to 14 years diagnosed and registered in Basrah from January 2004 to December 2009 were included in the study. Their records were retrieved and studied. The pattern of childhood leukaemia by year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, morphological subtypes, and geographical distribution was analysed. Rates of childhood leukaemia over time were calculated for six years using standard linear regression. Results: The total number of cases of childhood leukaemia was 181. The number of cases ranged from 21 in year 1, to 31 in the final year reaching a peak of 39 in 2006. Leukaemia rates did not change over the study period (test for trend was not significant, P = 0.81). The trend line shows a shift towards younger children (less than 5 years). The commonest types of leukaemia were acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), then acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and finally chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). Conclusion: Annual rates of childhood leukaemia in Basrah were similar to those in other countries with a trend towards younger children. This raises the question about the effect of environmental catastrophes in the alteration of some specific rates of childhood leukaemia, rather than the overall incidence rate. There is a need for further epidemiological studies to understand the aetiology of childhood leukaemia in Basrah. PMID:21969893

Success and failure in narrowing the disability employment gap: comparing levels and trends across Europe 2002-2014.

PubMed

Geiger, Ben Baumberg; van der Wel, Kjetil A; Tøge, Anne Grete

2017-12-02

International comparisons of the disability employment gap are an important driver of policy change. However, previous comparisons have used the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), despite known comparability issues. We present new results from the higher-quality European Social Survey (ESS), compare these to EU-SILC and the EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS), and also examine trends in the disability employment gap in Europe over the financial crisis for the first time. For cross-sectional comparisons of 25 countries, we use micro-data for ESS and EU-SILC for 2012 and compare these to published EU-LFS 2011 estimates. For trend analyses, we use seven biannual waves of ESS (2002-2014) with a total sample size of 182,195, and annual waves of EU-SILC (2004-2014) with a total sample size of 2,412,791. (i) Cross-sectional: countries that have smaller disability employment gaps in one survey tend to have smaller gaps in the other surveys. Nevertheless, there are some countries that perform badly on the lower-quality surveys but better in the higher-quality ESS. (ii) Trends: the disability employment gap appears to have declined in ESS by 4.9%, while no trend is observed in EU-SILC - but this has come alongside a rise in disability in ESS. There is a need for investment in disability measures that are more comparable over time/space. Nevertheless, it is clear to policymakers there are some countries that do consistently well across surveys and measures (Switzerland), and others that do badly (Hungary).

Spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation in Gansu Province (Northwest China) during 1951-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xiaohu; Wu, Xiaoqing; Gao, Meng

2017-11-01

Climate change is potentially challenging the sustainable development in many parts of the world, especially the semi-arid and arid regions on the earth. Northwest China (NWC) is one of the most arid areas in East Asia, and Gansu Province is located at the important climate transition zone in NWC. Spatiotemporal variability of both temperature and precipitation were analyzed based on the daily observation dataset at 29 meteorological stations over Gansu during 1951-2015. The Mann-Kendall trend test was utilized to detect monotonic trends in extreme climate indices, mean temperature, and total precipitation. The results revealed that the warming trends were statistically significant at most stations in Gansu, especially at the high altitude stations; however, the change trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Gansu were not significant as expected. Furthermore, the 29 stations were spatially grouped using hierarchical clustering method. The regional-averaged temperature anomalies also showed a significant warming trend beginning at the end of 1970s. Spatial variations were also observed in the annual and seasonal precipitation over Gansu. In general, precipitation increased in the western part of Gansu while decreased in the eastern part. Additionally, the wavelet analyses revealed that the teleconnection between large scale circulation and summer precipitation varied not only from region to region, but also was different at different time scale and different time periods. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes showed that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation, increasing geopotential height and rapid warming over the Eurasian continent were considered to be attributable to climate change in Gansu and even in NWC.

No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

PubMed Central

Camp, Richard J.; Reed, J. Michael

2017-01-01

There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987–2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes in abundance). The break-point and change-point test results, in addition to the early warning signal analyses, support that the two populations do not appear to show signs of critical slowing down or decline. PMID:29131835

Direct Medical Costs of Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular Diseases in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Shengnan; Petzold, Max; Cao, Junshan; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Weibing

2015-01-01

Abstract Few studies in China have focused on direct expenditures for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), making cost trends for CVDs uncertain. Epidemic modeling and forecasting may be essential for health workers and policy makers to reduce the cost burden of CVDs. To develop a time series model using Box–Jenkins methodology for a 15-year forecasting of CVD hospitalization costs in Shanghai. Daily visits and medical expenditures for CVD hospitalizations between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 were analyzed. Data from 2012 were used for further analyses, including yearly total health expenditures and expenditures per visit for each disease, as well as per-visit-per-year medical costs of each service for CVD hospitalizations. Time series analyses were performed to determine the long-time trend of total direct medical expenditures for CVDs and specific expenditures for each disease, which were used to forecast expenditures until December 31, 2030. From 2008 to 2012, there were increased yearly trends for both hospitalizations (from 250,354 to 322,676) and total costs (from US $ 388.52 to 721.58 million per year in 2014 currency) in Shanghai. Cost per CVD hospitalization in 2012 averaged US $ 2236.29, with the highest being for chronic rheumatic heart diseases (US $ 4710.78). Most direct medical costs were spent on medication. By the end of 2030, the average cost per visit per month for all CVDs was estimated to be US $ 4042.68 (95% CI: US $ 3795.04–4290.31) for all CVDs, and the total health expenditure for CVDs would reach over US $1.12 billion (95% CI: US $ 1.05–1.19 billion) without additional government interventions. Total health expenditures for CVDs in Shanghai are estimated to be higher in the future. These results should be a valuable future resource for both researchers on the economic effects of CVDs and for policy makers. PMID:25997060

No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rozek, Jessica C.; Camp, Richard J.; Reed, J. Michael

2017-01-01

There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987–2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes in abundance). The break-point and change-point test results, in addition to the early warning signal analyses, support that the two populations do not appear to show signs of critical slowing down or decline.

Incidence of Appendicitis over Time: A Comparative Analysis of an Administrative Healthcare Database and a Pathology-Proven Appendicitis Registry

PubMed Central

Clement, Fiona; Zimmer, Scott; Dixon, Elijah; Ball, Chad G.; Heitman, Steven J.; Swain, Mark; Ghosh, Subrata

2016-01-01

Importance At the turn of the 21st century, studies evaluating the change in incidence of appendicitis over time have reported inconsistent findings. Objectives We compared the differences in the incidence of appendicitis derived from a pathology registry versus an administrative database in order to validate coding in administrative databases and establish temporal trends in the incidence of appendicitis. Design We conducted a population-based comparative cohort study to identify all individuals with appendicitis from 2000 to2008. Setting & Participants Two population-based data sources were used to identify cases of appendicitis: 1) a pathology registry (n = 8,822); and 2) a hospital discharge abstract database (n = 10,453). Intervention & Main Outcome The administrative database was compared to the pathology registry for the following a priori analyses: 1) to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) of administrative codes; 2) to compare the annual incidence of appendicitis; and 3) to assess differences in temporal trends. Temporal trends were assessed using a generalized linear model that assumed a Poisson distribution and reported as an annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Analyses were stratified by perforated and non-perforated appendicitis. Results The administrative database (PPV = 83.0%) overestimated the incidence of appendicitis (100.3 per 100,000) when compared to the pathology registry (84.2 per 100,000). Codes for perforated appendicitis were not reliable (PPV = 52.4%) leading to overestimation in the incidence of perforated appendicitis in the administrative database (34.8 per 100,000) as compared to the pathology registry (19.4 per 100,000). The incidence of appendicitis significantly increased over time in both the administrative database (APC = 2.1%; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.8) and pathology registry (APC = 4.1; 95% CI: 3.1, 5.0). Conclusion & Relevance The administrative database overestimated the incidence of appendicitis, particularly among perforated appendicitis. Therefore, studies utilizing administrative data to analyze perforated appendicitis should be interpreted cautiously. PMID:27820826

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

Was the economic crisis 1997-1998 responsible for rising suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia? A time-trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Gunnell, David; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Cheng, Andrew T A

2009-04-01

In 1997-1998 a widespread economic crisis hit the economies of many East/Southeast Asian countries; its impact on suicide rates across the region has not been systematically documented. We investigated the impact of the Asian economic crisis (1997-1998) on suicide in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. Suicide and population data for the period 1985-2006 were extracted from the World Health Organisation's mortality database and Taiwanese mortality statistics. Sex-specific age-standardised suicide rates for people aged 15years or above were analysed using joinpoint regression. Trends in divorce, marriage, unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and alcohol consumption were compared with trends in suicide rates graphically and using time-series analysis. Suicide mortality decreased in the late 1980s and early 1990s but subsequently increased markedly in all countries except Singapore, which had steadily declining suicide rates throughout the study period. Compared to 1997, male rates in 1998 rose by 39% in Japan, 44% in Hong Kong and 45% in Korea; rises in female rates were less marked. Male rates also rose in Thailand, but accurate data were incomplete. The economic crisis was associated with 10,400 more suicides in 1998 compared to 1997 in Japan, Hong Kong and Korea. Similar increases in suicide rates were not seen in Taiwan and Singapore, the two countries where the economic crisis had a smaller impact on GDP and unemployment. Time-series analyses indicated that some of the crisis's impact on male suicides was attributable to increases in unemployment. These findings suggest an association of the Asian economic crisis with a sharp increase in suicide mortality in some, but not all, East/Southeast Asian countries, and that these increases were most closely associated with rises in unemployment.

Metastasis-free interval in breast cancer patients: Thirty-year trends and time dependency of prognostic factors. A retrospective analysis based on a single institution experience.

PubMed

Houzé de l'Aulnoit, A; Rogoz, B; Pinçon, C; Houzé de l'Aulnoit, D

2018-02-01

Breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in French women in spite of continuously improving management. The objectives of this study were to analyse trends in the metastasis-free interval over the past 30 years and to identify the prognostic factors of survival, while accounting for time dependency. A total of 1613 patients diagnosed with invasive non-metastatic breast cancer at Saint Vincent de Paul Hospital, Lille, France between 1977 and 2013, were followed for outcome (metastasis-free interval). Cohort entry time delay, a continuous temporal covariate, was defined to assess improvement of outcome. Data were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model and presented as hazard ratio (HR). Metastatic disease developed during follow-up in 446 (27.6%) patients. Cohort entry time delay exhibited strong independent prognostic value while accounting for multiple prognostic factors including: tumour size (HR = 1.62, 95 %CI 1.37-1.91); rapid tumour growth (HR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.17-2.16); lymph node ratio (HR = 2.29, 95%CI 1.97-2.66); histological grade (grade 2 was significant only during the first 10 years after diagnosis, grade 3 and progesterone receptor status only during the first 5 years after diagnosis); and oestrogen receptor status (significant only during the first 8 years (HR = 0.75, 95%CI 0.58-0.96)). The current study showed an improvement in the prognosis of breast cancer patients over the past 30 years and pointed to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

2017-08-01

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Automated mesostructural analyses using GIS, Beta test: Paleozoic structures from the New Jersey Great Valley region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herman, G.C.; French, M.A.; Monteverde, D.H.

1993-03-01

An automated method has been developed for representing outcrop data on geologic structures on maps. Using a MS-DOS custom database management system in conjunction with the ARC/INFO Geographic Information System (GIS), trends of geologic structures are plotted with user-specific symbols. The length of structural symbols can be frequency-weighted based on collective values from structural domains. The PC-based data manager is the NJGS Field data Management System (FMS) Version 2.0 which includes sort, output, and analysis functions for structural data input in either azimuth or quadrant form. Program options include lineament sorting, data output to other data management and analysis software,more » and a circular histogram (rose diagram) routine for trend frequency analysis. Trends can be displayed with either half-or full-rose diagrams using either 10[degree] sectors or one degree spikes for strike, trend, or dip azimuth readings. Scalar and vector statistics are both included. For the mesostructural analysis, ASCII files containing the station number, structural trend and inclination, and plot-symbol-length value are downloaded from FMS and uploaded into an ARC/INFO macro which sequentially plots the information. Plots can be generated in conjunction with any complimentary GIS coverage for various types of spatial analyses. Mesostructural plots can be used for regional tectonic analyses, for hydrogeologic analysis of fractured bedrock aquifers, or for ground-truthing data from fracture-trace or lineament analyses.« less

Ecological restoration of groundwater-dependent vegetation in the arid Ejina Delta: evidences from satellite evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kai, Lu; Garcia, Monica; Yu, Jingjie; Zhang, Yichi; Wang, Ping; Wang, Sheng; Liu, Xiao

2017-04-01

The ecological water conveyance project (EWCP) in the Ejina delta, a typical hyper-arid area of China, aimed to restore degraded phreatophytic ecosystems. We assessed the degree of ecosystem recovery using as an ecohydrological indicator a ratio between actual and potential evapotranspiration derived from MODIS since the beginning of the project in 2001. The selected indicator was the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) which was validated with Eddy covariance (EC) data confirming its applicability to monitor groundwater dependent vegetation. The spatial analyses of the evapotranspiration ratio show drying trends (2000-2015) which are stronger and also cover larger extensions than the wetting trends. Thus, the condition of key riparian areas relying mostly on surface water improved since the project began. However, groundwater dependent ecosystems located in lower river Xihe reaches present drying trends. It seems that despite of the runoff supplemented by the EWCP project, there is nowadays more inequality in the access to water by groundwater dependent ecosystems in the Ejina Delta. The study shows that energy-evaporation indices, relying on radiometric satellite temperature like the TVDI, can detect degradation signals that otherwise might go undetected by NDVI analyses especially in arid regions, where vegetation indices are greatly affected by the soil background signals. Additionally, they can provide timely information to water managers on how much water to allocate for a sustainable restoration program.

[Secular variation of births, weight and length at birth: Local perspective].

PubMed

Amigo, Hugo; Bustos, Patricia; Vargas, Claudio; Iglesias, Pablo

2015-01-01

To analyse the outcomes of births and anthropometric measurements at birth of children born between 1974 and 2011 at Limache Hospital (Valparaíso, Chile). Times series were constructed of births, weight and length at birth, and low weight and length at birth. The trend was modelled with linear and logistical regressions using splines to represent breaks in the trend by decade. The series includes 17,574 births. There was an increase in births per year in the 1970s (30/year) and declines in them to 17 and 22 births/year in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively (P<.001), with no significant trend thereafter. Newborns from 2000 to 2011 weighed 266 grams more than those in the 1970s (P<.001), and have now reached a mean weight of 3,530 g. Low birthweight fell from 8% in the 1970s to 1.1% after 2000. Birth length increased by 1cm in the 37 years studied, with a reduction of low birth length from 7.6% to 2.1% during the period. Live births in the Limache Hospital declined, and anthropometric measurements at birth improved in the years analysed. This information is useful in developing interventions, taking into account the possible selection biases that could distort these estimates and their interpretation. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Providing web-based tools for time series access and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberle, Jonas; Hüttich, Christian; Schmullius, Christiane

2014-05-01

Time series information is widely used in environmental change analyses and is also an essential information for stakeholders and governmental agencies. However, a challenging issue is the processing of raw data and the execution of time series analysis. In most cases, data has to be found, downloaded, processed and even converted in the correct data format prior to executing time series analysis tools. Data has to be prepared to use it in different existing software packages. Several packages like TIMESAT (Jönnson & Eklundh, 2004) for phenological studies, BFAST (Verbesselt et al., 2010) for breakpoint detection, and GreenBrown (Forkel et al., 2013) for trend calculations are provided as open-source software and can be executed from the command line. This is needed if data pre-processing and time series analysis is being automated. To bring both parts, automated data access and data analysis, together, a web-based system was developed to provide access to satellite based time series data and access to above mentioned analysis tools. Users of the web portal are able to specify a point or a polygon and an available dataset (e.g., Vegetation Indices and Land Surface Temperature datasets from NASA MODIS). The data is then being processed and provided as a time series CSV file. Afterwards the user can select an analysis tool that is being executed on the server. The final data (CSV, plot images, GeoTIFFs) is visualized in the web portal and can be downloaded for further usage. As a first use case, we built up a complimentary web-based system with NASA MODIS products for Germany and parts of Siberia based on the Earth Observation Monitor (www.earth-observation-monitor.net). The aim of this work is to make time series analysis with existing tools as easy as possible that users can focus on the interpretation of the results. References: Jönnson, P. and L. Eklundh (2004). TIMESAT - a program for analysing time-series of satellite sensor data. Computers and Geosciences 30, 833-845. Verbesselt, J., R. Hyndman, G. Newnham and D. Culvenor (2010). Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment, 114, 106-115. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.014 Forkel, M., N. Carvalhais, J. Verbesselt, M. Mahecha, C. Neigh and M. Reichstein (2013). Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology. Remote Sensing 5, 2113-2144.

Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

PubMed

Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

2013-09-01

Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal variability of selected air toxics in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, Michael C.; Hafner, Hilary R.; Chinkin, Lyle R.; Charrier, Jessica G.

Ambient measurements of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, air toxics) collected in the United States from 1990 to 2005 were analyzed for diurnal, seasonal, and/or annual variability and trends. Visual and statistical analyses were used to identify and quantify temporal variations in air toxics at national and regional levels. Sufficient data were available to analyze diurnal variability for 14 air toxics, seasonal variability for 24 air toxics, and annual trends for 26 air toxics. Four diurnal variation patterns were identified and labeled invariant, nighttime peak, morning peak, and daytime peak. Three distinct seasonal patterns were identified and labeled invariant, cool, and warm. Multiple air toxics showed consistent decreasing trends over three trend periods, 1990-2005, 1995-2005, and 2000-2005. Trends appeared to be relatively consistent within chemically similar pollutant groups. Hydrocarbons such as benzene, 1,3-butadiene, styrene, xylene, and toluene decreased by approximately 5% or more per year at more than half of all monitoring sites. Concentrations of carbonyl compounds such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and propionaldehyde were equally likely to have increased or decreased at monitoring sites. Chlorinated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as tetrachloroethylene, dichloromethane, and methyl chloroform decreased at more than half of all monitoring sites, but decreases among these species were much more variable than among the hydrocarbons. Lead particles decreased in concentration at most monitoring sites, but trends in other metals were not consistent over time.

Antimicrobial resistance trends among Escherichia coli isolates obtained from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States, 2004-2011.

PubMed

Cummings, Kevin J; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

2014-01-01

Monitoring antimicrobial resistance trends among bacteria isolated from food animals and people is necessary to inform risk analyses and guide public policy regarding antimicrobial use. Our objectives were to describe the antimicrobial resistance status of Escherichia coli isolates from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to selected antimicrobial agents over time. We collected data retrospectively for all bovine E. coli isolates that were obtained from samples submitted to Cornell University's Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2011. We investigated temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant E. coli for each antimicrobial agent using the Cochran-Armitage trend test. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed on 3373 bovine E. coli isolates from clinical samples submitted during the study period. Overall resistance to each antimicrobial agent ranged from 2.7% (enrofloxacin) to 91.3% (oxytetracycline). There was evidence of a significantly decreasing trend in prevalence of resistance to several agents: chlortetracycline, florfenicol, neomycin, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. However, a significantly increasing trend in prevalence of resistance to enrofloxacin was also evident. These results do not support the idea that current antimicrobial use practices on dairy operations are driving a general increase in the emergence and dissemination of drug-resistant E. coli in the region served by the laboratory. However, resistance to some drugs remained consistently high during the study period, and increasing resistance to enrofloxacin is a key area of concern.

Using trend templates in a neonatal seizure algorithm improves detection of short seizures in a foetal ovine model.

PubMed

Zwanenburg, Alex; Andriessen, Peter; Jellema, Reint K; Niemarkt, Hendrik J; Wolfs, Tim G A M; Kramer, Boris W; Delhaas, Tammo

2015-03-01

Seizures below one minute in duration are difficult to assess correctly using seizure detection algorithms. We aimed to improve neonatal detection algorithm performance for short seizures through the use of trend templates for seizure onset and end. Bipolar EEG were recorded within a transiently asphyxiated ovine model at 0.7 gestational age, a common experimental model for studying brain development in humans of 30-34 weeks of gestation. Transient asphyxia led to electrographic seizures within 6-8 h. A total of 3159 seizures, 2386 shorter than one minute, were annotated in 1976 h-long EEG recordings from 17 foetal lambs. To capture EEG characteristics, five features, sensitive to seizures, were calculated and used to derive trend information. Feature values and trend information were used as input for support vector machine classification and subsequently post-processed. Performance metrics, calculated after post-processing, were compared between analyses with and without employing trend information. Detector performance was assessed after five-fold cross-validation conducted ten times with random splits. The use of trend templates for seizure onset and end in a neonatal seizure detection algorithm significantly improves the correct detection of short seizures using two-channel EEG recordings from 54.3% (52.6-56.1) to 59.5% (58.5-59.9) at FDR 2.0 (median (range); p < 0.001, Wilcoxon signed rank test). Using trend templates might therefore aid in detection of short seizures by EEG monitoring at the NICU.

Effect of Dam operation on monthly and annual trends of flow discharge in the Qom Rood Watershed, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaghmaei, Hiva; Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza; Moradi, Hamidreza; Gholamalifard, Mehdi

2018-02-01

Trends in flow discharge, temperature and rainfall from the Qom Rood Watershed, Iran, for a period of 1979-2016 were analyzed at monthly and annual time scales. Trend analyses were conducted using the Mann-Kendall test, the double-mass curve of mean annual discharge versus rainfall, and rainfall-runoff relationship before and after the 15 Khordad Dam operation. Multiple regression of flow discharge against rainfall and temperature was used to determine the residual trend at four meteorological and hydrological stations located upstream and downstream of the Qom Rood Watershed. Results showed that the temperature at the upstream and downstream stations did not have any significant trend, but a significant decreasing trend (P < .05) in rainfall was detected only in May (z = -1.66) at the downstream stations. There was a significant positive trend (P < .05) in rainfall in February (z = 2.22) and July (z = 2.15) at the upstream stations, and in October (z = 2.3) and November (z = 1.8) at the downstream stations. However, there was a noticeable decrease in monthly and annual flow discharge, and residual trend at 99% significance level at the downstream stations. At the upstream stations, the flow discharges had significant (P < .05) declining trend in all months, but annual flow discharge did not change significantly. Analysis of double mass curve between runoff and rainfall at the downstream stations showed an inconsistency in the line slope concordant with the time of 15 Khordad Dam operation. Annual mean discharge at the upstream stations did not show a significant change before and after 15 Khordad Dam operation. However, annual flow magnitude decreased significantly by 87.5 and 81.7% in Shad Abad and KoohSefid, respectively. These results confirmed that natural driving forces did not affect flow discharge changes and the observed decreasing tendency in flow discharge at the downstream stations was due to 15 Khordad Dam, and at the upstream stations due to diversion/storage dams. These findings highlighted the role of human interference in changing the hydrologic regime in the study area based on which appropriate adaptive decisions can be made.

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.

Part-time and full-time medical specialists, are there differences in allocation of time?

PubMed

de Jong, Judith D; Heiligers, Phil; Groenewegen, Peter P; Hingstman, Lammert

2006-03-03

An increasing number of medical specialists prefer to work part-time. This development can be found worldwide. Problems to be faced in the realization of part-time work in medicine include the division of night and weekend shifts, as well as communication between physicians and continuity of care. People tend to think that physicians working part-time are less devoted to their work, implying that full-time physicians complete a greater number of tasks. The central question in this article is whether part-time medical specialists allocate their time differently to their tasks than full-time medical specialists. A questionnaire was sent by mail to all internists (N = 817), surgeons (N = 693) and radiologists (N = 621) working in general hospitals in the Netherlands. Questions were asked about the actual situation, such as hours worked and night and weekend shifts. The response was 53% (n = 411) for internists, 52% (n = 359) for surgeons, and 36% (n = 213) for radiologists. Due to non-response on specific questions there were 367 internists, 316 surgeons, and 71 radiologists included in the analyses. Multilevel analyses were used to analyze the data. Part-time medical specialists do not spend proportionally more time on direct patient care. With respect to night and weekend shifts, part-time medical specialists account for proportionally more or an equal share of these shifts. The number of hours worked per FTE is higher for part-time than for full-time medical specialists, although this difference is only significant for surgeons. In general, part-time medical specialists do their share of the job. However, we focussed on input only. Besides input, output like the numbers of services provided deserves attention as well. The trend in medicine towards more part-time work has an important consequence: more medical specialists are needed to get the work done. Therefore, a greater number of medical specialists have to be trained. Part-time work is not only a female concern; there are also (international) trends for male medical specialists that show a decline in the number of hours worked. This indicates an overall change in attitudes towards the number of hours medical specialists should work.

Analysis of satellite precipitation over East Africa during last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattani, Elsa; Wenhaji Ndomeni, Claudine; Merino, Andrés; Levizzani, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

Daily accumulated precipitation time series from satellite retrieval algorithms (e.g., ARC2 and TAMSAT) are exploited to extract the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA - 5°S-20°N, 28°E-52°E) precipitation during last decades (1983-2013). The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to precipitation time series to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in particular for October-November-December referred to as the short rain season. Moreover, the connection among EA's precipitation, sea surface temperature, and soil moisture is analyzed through the correlation with the dominant EOF modes of variability. Preliminary results concern the first two EOF's modes for the ARC2 data set. EOF1 is characterized by an inter-annual variability and a positive correlation between precipitation and El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole mode, and soil moisture, while EOF2 shows a dipole structure of spatial variability associated with a longer scale temporal variability. This second dominant mode is mostly linked to sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Further analyses are carried out by computing the time series of the joint CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/index.shtml), i.e. RX1day, RX5day, CDD, CDD, CWD, SDII, PRCPTOT, R10, R20. The purpose is to identify the occurrenes of extreme events (droughts and floods) and extract precipitation temporal variation by trend analysis (Mann-Kendall technique). Results for the ARC2 data set demonstrate the existence of a dipole spatial pattern in the linear trend of the time series of PRCPTOT (annual precipitation considering days with a rain rate > 1 mm) and SDII (average precipitation on wet days over a year). A negative trend is mainly present over West Ethiopia and Sudan, whereas a positive trend is exhibited over East Ethiopia and Somalia. CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and CWD (maximum number of consecutive wet days) time series do not exhibit a similar behavior and trends are generally weaker with a lower significance level with respect to PRCPTOT and SDII.

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

Carotid endarterectomy: the change in practice over 11 years in a stroke centre.

PubMed

Tse, Gabrielle T W; Kilkenny, Monique F; Bladin, Chris; Grigg, Michael; Dewey, Helen M

2017-11-13

Recent research evidence has impacted the practice of carotid endarterectomy (CEA). We aim to characterize changes in the practice and outcome of CEA over time in a single large-volume stroke centre. All patients who underwent CEA from 2004 to 2014 and carotid angioplasty and stenting (CAS) from 2003 to 2008 at an Australian metropolitan tertiary stroke centre hospital were included. Clinical data were analysed to identify time trends in choice of intervention, patient selection, preoperative imaging utilization, surgical timing and outcome. There were 510 CEAs performed during 2004-2014 and 95 CASs during 2003-2008. The proportion of patients undergoing CEA compared to CAS increased from 60% to 90% from 2004 to 2008 (P < 0.001). CAS patients were more likely to have cardiac co-morbidities. From 2004 to 2014, the proportion of CEA patients aged ≥80 years increased (P = 0.001) and the proportion of asymptomatic patients decreased (P = 0.003) over time. Median time from symptom onset to surgery decreased from 52 days (Q1: 25, Q3: 74) in 2004 to 8 days (Q1: 5, Q3: 37) in 2014 (P < 0.001). Use of preoperative ultrasonography decreased whilst CT angiography and the number of imaging modalities applied to each patient increased over time (P < 0.001). Overall, 5.9% of CEAs were complicated by death, stroke or acute myocardial infarction with no significant change over time. The trends in CEA practice at our centre align with international trends and guidelines. This study provides a representative indicator of Australian hospital practice, and illustrates how evidence from research is translated into clinical care. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Trends in biomedical informatics: automated topic analysis of JAMIA articles

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Chao; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Kim, Hyeon-Eui; Sun, Jimeng; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2015-01-01

Biomedical Informatics is a growing interdisciplinary field in which research topics and citation trends have been evolving rapidly in recent years. To analyze these data in a fast, reproducible manner, automation of certain processes is needed. JAMIA is a “generalist” journal for biomedical informatics. Its articles reflect the wide range of topics in informatics. In this study, we retrieved Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and citations of JAMIA articles published between 2009 and 2014. We use tensors (i.e., multidimensional arrays) to represent the interaction among topics, time and citations, and applied tensor decomposition to automate the analysis. The trends represented by tensors were then carefully interpreted and the results were compared with previous findings based on manual topic analysis. A list of most cited JAMIA articles, their topics, and publication trends over recent years is presented. The analyses confirmed previous studies and showed that, from 2012 to 2014, the number of articles related to MeSH terms Methods, Organization & Administration, and Algorithms increased significantly both in number of publications and citations. Citation trends varied widely by topic, with Natural Language Processing having a large number of citations in particular years, and Medical Record Systems, Computerized remaining a very popular topic in all years. PMID:26555018

Detection of trends and break points in temperature: the case of Umbria (Italy) and Guadalquivir Valley (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Grimaldi, Pascual; García-Marín, Amanda; Ayuso-Muñoz, José Luís; Flamini, Alessia; Morbidelli, Renato; Ayuso-Ruíz, José Luís

2018-02-01

The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact with values around 0.85 °C since the late nineteen century. Nevertheless, the increase is not equally distributed all over the world, varying from one region to others. Thus, it becomes interesting to study the evolution of temperature indices for a certain area in order to analyse the existence of climatic trend in it. In this work, monthly temperature time series from two Mediterranean areas are used: the Umbria region in Italy, and the Guadalquivir Valley in southern Spain. For the available stations, six temperature indices (three annual and three monthly) of mean, average maximum and average minimum temperature have been obtained, and the existence of trends has been studied by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Both regions show a general increase in all temperature indices, being the pattern of the trends clearer in Spain than in Italy. The Italian area is the only one at which some negative trends are detected. The presence of break points in the temperature series has been also studied by using the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), most of which may be due to natural phenomena.

Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-04-01

Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Grossman, Gary D.

2010-01-01

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Trends in the biosynthesis and production of the immunosuppressant tacrolimus (FK506).

PubMed

Barreiro, Carlos; Martínez-Castro, Miriam

2014-01-01

The current off-patent state of tacrolimus (FK506) has opened the hunting season for new generic pharmaceutical formulations of this immunosuppressant. This fact has boosted the scientific and industrial research on tacrolimus for the last 5 years in order to improve its production. The fast discovery of tacrolimus producer strains has generated a huge number of producers, which presents the biosynthetic cluster of FK506 as a high promiscuous genetic region. For the first time, the current state-of-the-art on the tacrolimus biosynthesis, production improvements and drug purification is reviewed. On one hand, all the genes involved in the tacrolimus biosynthesis, in addition to the traditional PKS/NRPS, as well as their regulation are analysed. On the other hand, tacrolimus direct and indirect precursors are reviewed as a straight manner to improve the final yield, which is a current trend in the field. Twenty years of industrial and scientific improvements on tacrolimus production are summarised, whereas future trends are also drafted.

Neural Imaging Using Single-Photon Avalanche Diodes

PubMed Central

Karami, Mohammad Azim; Ansarian, Misagh

2017-01-01

Introduction: This paper analyses the ability of single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) for neural imaging. The current trend in the production of SPADs moves toward the minimum dark count rate (DCR) and maximum photon detection probability (PDP). Moreover, the jitter response which is the main measurement characteristic for the timing uncertainty is progressing. Methods: The neural imaging process using SPADs can be performed by means of florescence lifetime imaging (FLIM), time correlated single-photon counting (TCSPC), positron emission tomography (PET), and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Results: This trend will result in more precise neural imaging cameras. While achieving low DCR SPADs is difficult in deep submicron technologies because of using higher doping profiles, higher PDPs are reported in green and blue part of light. Furthermore, the number of pixels integrated in the same chip is increasing with the technology progress which can result in the higher resolution of imaging. Conclusion: This study proposes implemented SPADs in Deep-submicron technologies to be used in neural imaging cameras, due to the small size pixels and higher timing accuracies. PMID:28446946

Phenological responses of plants in Europe: Differences in timing due to the type of event, the location and human density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrella, N.; Menzel, A.

2009-04-01

The 4th assessment report of the IPCC confirms that there is already a change in biological and physical systems in the expected direction due to climate change. Even the human influence could be verified in these changes. Plant phenological observations provide a good tool to track the quality and quantity of plant reactions to temperature. In Europe, in particular, there has been a long tradition of collecting onset dates for various plant phenological phases. We analysed a huge phenological data set collected during the COST 725 Action ‘Establishing a European Phenological Data Platform for Climatological Applications' containing more than 36,000 phenological time series (between 1971-2000) for Europe. This dataset was analysed by Menzel et al. (2006) on a national basis and they discovered that there was a extensive and apparent change in phenology over the three decades towards earlier start for spring phases and a slightly delayed beginning of leaf colouring in autumn. In contrast to the Menzel et al (2006) study we examined pan-European differences in the behaviour of phenological phases on the basis of station time series. We focussed on the temperature response of phenological phases and their regional patterns and the relationship between local temperature and phenological trends as well as the influence of human population density. The temperature information was derived from a high-resolution climate grid of Europe (0.5° x 0.5° grid CRU TS 2.1 (Mitchell & Jones 2005)). The data on population density were downloaded from Euro Stat. The results of our analyses confirm differences in behaviour between annual and perennial plants in Europe; the temperature response of perennial plants was greater (-4.2 days/°C) than that of annual agricultural crops (-3.0 days/°C). The correlation between the temperature trend and the phenology trend was strongest for leaf unfolding of fruit and deciduous trees (r=-0.63 and r=-0.46 respectively). Geographical coordinates (latitude and longitude) alone only had little impact on the mean onset of the group of phases, including altitude there was an influence for some groups. We could show that human population density influenced the mean onset date of the group of phases.

The computation of equating errors in international surveys in education.

PubMed

Monseur, Christian; Berezner, Alla

2007-01-01

Since the IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study, one of the major objectives of international surveys in education has been to report trends in achievement. The names of the two current IEA surveys reflect this growing interest: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). Similarly a central concern of the OECD's PISA is with trends in outcomes over time. To facilitate trend analyses these studies link their tests using common item equating in conjunction with item response modelling methods. IEA and PISA policies differ in terms of reporting the error associated with trends. In IEA surveys, the standard errors of the trend estimates do not include the uncertainty associated with the linking step while PISA does include a linking error component in the standard errors of trend estimates. In other words, PISA implicitly acknowledges that trend estimates partly depend on the selected common items, while the IEA's surveys do not recognise this source of error. Failing to recognise the linking error leads to an underestimation of the standard errors and thus increases the Type I error rate, thereby resulting in reporting of significant changes in achievement when in fact these are not significant. The growing interest of policy makers in trend indicators and the impact of the evaluation of educational reforms appear to be incompatible with such underestimation. However, the procedure implemented by PISA raises a few issues about the underlying assumptions for the computation of the equating error. After a brief introduction, this paper will describe the procedure PISA implemented to compute the linking error. The underlying assumptions of this procedure will then be discussed. Finally an alternative method based on replication techniques will be presented, based on a simulation study and then applied to the PISA 2000 data.

Do societal wealth, family affluence and gender account for trends in adolescent cannabis use? A 30 country cross-national study.

PubMed

ter Bogt, Tom F M; de Looze, Margreet; Molcho, Michal; Godeau, Emmanuelle; Hublet, Anne; Kokkevi, Anna; Kuntsche, Emmanuel; Nic Gabhainn, Saoirse; Franelic, Iva Pejnovic; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Sznitman, Sharon; Vieno, Alessio; Vollebergh, Wilma; Pickett, William

2014-02-01

To examine cross-national changes in frequent adolescent cannabis use (40+ times consumed over life-time at age 15) over time and relate these trends to societal wealth, family affluence and gender. Data from three cycles (2002, 2006, 2010) of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) Study were used for cross-sectional and trend analyses of adolescent cannabis use. Representative surveys in 30 European and North American countries. A total of 160 606 15-year-old students. Respondents' life-time cannabis use, demographics, family affluence (FAS) and frequency of peer contacts were measured individually. Indicators of wealth (gross domestic product per capita, GDP) and perceived availability of cannabis were obtained from national public data bases. The frequency of life-time cannabis use decreased over time among adolescents in Europe and North America, particularly in western European countries and the United States (relative risk (RR) = 0.86: confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.93). This trend was not observed consistently in rapidly developing countries in eastern, central and southern Europe. Over time (2002-10), cannabis use became: (i) less characteristic of high GDP countries in contrast to lower GDP countries (RR = 0.74: CI 0.57-0.95); (ii) less characteristic of youth from high FAS families in contrast to youth from low FAS families (RR = 0.83: CI 0.72-0.96); and (iii) characterized by an increasing gender gap, i.e. consumption was higher among males (RR 1.26: CI 1.04-1.53). Perceived availability of cannabis and peer contacts remained strong predictors of frequent cannabis use. Among 30 European and North American countries, cannabis use appears to have 'trickled down' over time, with developing countries taking on the former (heavier) use pattern of richer countries, and less affluent youth taking on the former (heavier) use pattern of more affluent youth. Cannabis use continues to be more common among adolescent males than females. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Trends in reports of driving following illicit drug consumption among regular drug users in Australia, 2007-2013: Has random roadside drug testing had a deterrent effect?

PubMed

Horyniak, Danielle; Dietze, Paul; Lenton, Simon; Alati, Rosa; Bruno, Raimondo; Matthews, Allison; Breen, Courtney; Burns, Lucy

2017-07-01

Driving following illicit drug consumption ('drug-driving') is a potential road safety risk. Roadside drug testing (RDT) is conducted across Australia with the dual aims of prosecuting drivers with drugs in their system and deterring drug-driving. We examined trends over time in self-reported past six-month drug-driving among sentinel samples of regular drug users and assessed the impact of experiences of RDT on drug-driving among these participants. Data from 1913 people who inject drugs (PWID) and 3140 regular psychostimulant users (RPU) who were first-time participants in a series of repeat cross-sectional sentinel studies conducted in Australian capital cities from 2007 to 2013 and reported driving in the past six months were analysed. Trends over time were assessed using the χ 2 test for trend. Multivariable logistic regressions assessed the relationship between experiences of RDT and recent drug-driving, adjusting for survey year, jurisdiction of residence and socio-demographic and drug use characteristics. The percentage of participants reporting recent (past six months) drug-driving decreased significantly over time among both samples (PWID: 83% [2007] vs. 74% [2013], p<0.001; RPU: 72% vs. 56%, p<0.001), but drug-driving remained prevalent. Lifetime experience of RDT increased significantly over time (PWID: 6% [2007] vs. 32% [2013], p<0.001; RPU: 2% vs. 11%, p<0.001). There were no significant associations between experiencing RDT and drug-driving among either PWID or RPU. Although there is some evidence that drug-driving among key risk groups of regular drug users is declining in Australia, possibly reflecting a general deterrent effect of RDT, experiencing RDT appears to have no specific deterrent effect on drug-driving. Further intervention, with a particular focus on changing attitudes towards drug-driving, may be needed to further reduce this practice among these groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracking Achievement Gaps and Assessing the Impact of NCLB on the Gaps: An In-Depth Look into National and State Reading and Math Outcome Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jaekyung

2006-01-01

This study offers systematic trend analyses of NAEP national and state-level public school fourth and eighth graders' reading and math achievement results during pre-NCLB (1990-2001) and post-NCLB (2002-2005) periods. It compares post-NCLB trends in reading and math achievement with pre-NCLB trends among different racial and socioeconomic groups…

Mortality Trends in Pediatric and Congenital Heart Surgery: An Analysis of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database.

PubMed

Jacobs, Jeffrey P; He, Xia; Mayer, John E; Austin, Erle H; Quintessenza, James A; Karl, Tom R; Vricella, Luca; Mavroudis, Constantine; O'Brien, Sean M; Pasquali, Sara K; Hill, Kevin D; Husain, S Adil; Overman, David M; St Louis, James D; Han, Jane M; Shahian, David M; Cameron, Duke; Jacobs, Marshall L

2016-10-01

Previous analyses of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database have demonstrated a reduction over time of risk-adjusted operative mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting. The STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS CHSD) was queried to assess multiinstitutional trends over time in discharge mortality and postoperative length of stay (PLOS). Since 2009, operations in the STS CHSD have been classified according to STAT (The Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery) Congenital Heart Surgery Mortality Categories. The five STAT Mortality Categories were chosen to be optimal with respect to minimizing variation within categories and maximizing variation between categories. For this study, all index cardiac operations from 1998 to 2014, inclusive, were grouped by STAT Mortality Category (exclusions: patent ductus arteriosus ligation in patients weighing less than or equal to 2.5 kg and operations that could not be assigned to a STAT Mortality Category). End points were discharge mortality and PLOS in survivors for the entire period and for 4-year epochs. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to test the null hypothesis that the mortality was the same across epochs, by STAT Mortality Category. The analysis encompassed 202,895 index operations at 118 centers. The number of centers participating in STS CHSD increased in each epoch. Overall discharge mortality was 3.4% (6,959 of 202,895) for 1998 to 2014 and 3.1% (2,308 of 75,337) for 2011 to 2014. Statistically significant improvement in discharge mortality was seen in STAT Mortality Categories 2, 3, 4, and 5 (p values for STAT Mortality Categories 1 through 5 are 0.060, <0.001, 0.015, <0.001, and <0.001, respectively). PLOS in survivors was relatively unchanged over the same time intervals. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the finding of declining risk-stratified rates of discharge mortality over time is not simply attributable to the addition of more centers to the cohort over time. This 16-year analysis of STS CHSD reveals declining discharge mortality over time, especially for more complex operations. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Part-time work among pediatricians expands.

PubMed

Cull, William L; O'Connor, Karen G; Olson, Lynn M

2010-01-01

The objective of this study was to track trends in part-time employment among pediatricians from 2000 to 2006 and to examine differences within subgroups of pediatricians. As part of the Periodic Survey of Fellows, national random samples of American Academy of Pediatrics members were surveyed in 2000, 2003, and 2006. These surveys shared questions concerning working part-time and other practice characteristics. Roughly 1600 pediatricians were included in each random sample. Totals of 812 (51%), 1020 (63%), and 1013 (62%) pediatricians completed the surveys in 2000, 2003, and 2006, respectively. Analyses were limited to nonretired, posttrainee pediatricians. The number of pediatricians who reported that they work part-time increased from 15% in 2000, to 20% in 2003, to 23% in 2006. The pattern of increased part-time work from 2000 to 2006 held for many subgroups, including men, women, pediatricians who were younger than 40 years, pediatricians who were aged >or=50 years, pediatricians who worked in an urban inner city, pediatricians who worked in suburban areas, general pediatricians, and subspecialist pediatricians. Those who were working part-time were more satisfied within their professional and personal activities. Part-time pediatricians worked on average 14.3 fewer hours per week in direct patient care. Increases in part-time work are apparent throughout pediatrics. The possible continued growth of part-time is an important trend within the field of pediatrics that will need to be monitored.

Not all cultural values are created equal: Cultural change in China reexamined through Google books.

PubMed

Zhang, Rui; Weng, Liping

2017-06-20

Given its major transformations in recent decades, China has figured prominently in research on cultural change. Previous research converges in showing a general trend towards individualism in contemporary China while noting that rising individualism tends to coexist with enduring collectivism. To further understand this, we tested whether perceived traditional importance of cultural values would modulate the trajectory of cultural change reflected in word usage frequencies in published books. We re-analysed Google's Chinese corpus since 1980 based on a broad sample of words associated with individualism-collectivism. We replicated the pattern of rising individualism and declining collectivism among words of modest and low perceived traditional importance. Most important, however, collectivistic words of high perceived traditional importance increased in usage frequencies with time, thus departing from the general trend towards individualism. Overall, our research underscores the role of core culture in cultural maintenance during times of rapid cultural change. © 2017 International Union of Psychological Science.

Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Smith, R. O.; Parker, D. E.; Saunby, M.

2011-07-01

Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time-varying biases in estimates of global and regional average sea surface temperature. The size of the biases arising from these changes are estimated and their uncertainties evaluated. The estimated biases and their associated uncertainties are largest during the period immediately following the Second World War, reflecting the rapid and incompletely documented changes in shipping and data availability at the time. Adjustments have been applied to reduce these effects in gridded data sets of sea surface temperature and the results are presented as a set of interchangeable realizations. Uncertainties of estimated trends in global and regional average sea surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea surface temperatures. Despite this, trends over the twentieth century remain qualitatively consistent.

Trends in detectable viral load by calendar year in the Australian HIV observational database.

PubMed

Law, Matthew G; Woolley, Ian; Templeton, David J; Roth, Norm; Chuah, John; Mulhall, Brian; Canavan, Peter; McManus, Hamish; Cooper, David A; Petoumenos, Kathy

2011-02-23

Recent papers have suggested that expanded combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) through lower viral load may be a strategy to reduce HIV transmission at a population level. We assessed calendar trends in detectable viral load in patients recruited to the Australian HIV Observational Database who were receiving cART. Patients were included in analyses if they had started cART (defined as three or more antiretrovirals) and had at least one viral load assessment after 1 January 1997. We analyzed detectable viral load (>400 copies/ml) in the first and second six months of each calendar year while receiving cART. Repeated measures logistic regression methods were used to account for within and between patient variability. Rates of detectable viral load were predicted allowing for patients lost to follow up. Analyses were based on 2439 patients and 31,339 viral load assessments between 1 January 1997 and 31 March 2009. Observed detectable viral load in patients receiving cART declined to 5.3% in the first half of 2009. Predicted detectable viral load based on multivariate models, allowing for patient loss to follow up, also declined over time, but at higher levels, to 13.8% in 2009. Predicted detectable viral load in Australian HIV Observational Database patients receiving cART declined over calendar time, albeit at higher levels than observed. However, over this period, HIV diagnoses and estimated HIV incidence increased in Australia.

Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

2018-02-01

Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.

Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Brenčič, Mihael

2016-01-01

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899–2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future. PMID:27116375

Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Brenčič, Mihael

2016-01-01

Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899-2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future.

An Impact Evaluation of a Federal Mine Safety Training Regulation on Injury Rates Among US Stone, Sand, and Gravel Mine Workers: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Windsor, Richard

2010-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated the impact of a safety training regulation, implemented by the US Department of Labor's Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) in 1999, on injury rates at stone, sand, and gravel mining operations. Methods. We applied a time-series design and analyses with quarterly counts of nonfatal injuries and employment hours from 7998 surface aggregate mines from 1995 through 2006. Covariates included standard industrial classification codes, ownership, and injury severity. Results. Overall crude rates of injuries declined over the 12-year period. Reductions in incident rates for medical treatment only, restricted duty, and lost-time injuries were consistent with temporal trends and provided no evidence of an intervention effect attributable to the MSHA regulation. Rates of permanently disabling injuries (PDIs) declined markedly. Regression analyses documented a statistically significant reduction in the risk rate in the postintervention time period (risk rate = 0.591; 95% confidence interval = 0.529, 0.661). Conclusions. Although a causal relationship between the regulatory intervention and the decline in the rate of PDIs is plausible, inconsistency in the results with the other injury-severity categories preclude attributing the observed outcome to the MSHA regulation. Further analyses of these data are needed. PMID:20466960

An impact evaluation of a federal mine safety training regulation on injury rates among US stone, sand, and gravel mine workers: an interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Monforton, Celeste; Windsor, Richard

2010-07-01

We evaluated the impact of a safety training regulation, implemented by the US Department of Labor's Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) in 1999, on injury rates at stone, sand, and gravel mining operations. We applied a time-series design and analyses with quarterly counts of nonfatal injuries and employment hours from 7998 surface aggregate mines from 1995 through 2006. Covariates included standard industrial classification codes, ownership, and injury severity. Overall crude rates of injuries declined over the 12-year period. Reductions in incident rates for medical treatment only, restricted duty, and lost-time injuries were consistent with temporal trends and provided no evidence of an intervention effect attributable to the MSHA regulation. Rates of permanently disabling injuries (PDIs) declined markedly. Regression analyses documented a statistically significant reduction in the risk rate in the postintervention time period (risk rate = 0.591; 95% confidence interval = 0.529, 0.661). Although a causal relationship between the regulatory intervention and the decline in the rate of PDIs is plausible, inconsistency in the results with the other injury-severity categories preclude attributing the observed outcome to the MSHA regulation. Further analyses of these data are needed.

NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) signatures of transient ecohydrological systems: The case of post-mining landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brück, Yasemine; Schulte Overberg, Philipp; Pohle, Ina; Hinz, Christoph

2017-04-01

Assessing ecohydrological systems that undergo state transitions due to environmental change is becoming increasingly important. One system that can be used to study severe disturbances are post-mining landscapes as they usually are associated with complete removal of vegetation and afterwards subsequent ecosystem restoration or spontaneous rehabilitation in line with natural succession. Within this context it is of interest, whether and how (fast) the land cover in these areas returns to conditions comparable to those in the undisturbed surrounding or those prior mining. Many aspects of mine site rehabilitation depend on climatic, geomorphic and ecological settings, which determine at which rate vegetation may be re-established. In order to identify general patterns of vegetation establishment, we propose to use NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series for mine affected land to estimate rate of recovery across climate regions and ecoregions. In this study we analysed the MODIS Terra Satellite 8 day-composite NDVI for areas influenced by surface mining in different climates from 2001 to 2015. The locations have been chosen based on their extent and the data availability of mining and rehabilitation activities. We selected coal extraction as a case study as strip mining generates well-defined chronosequences of disturbance. The selected mining areas are located in equatorial, arid, warm temperate or snow climates with different precipitation and temperature conditions according to the Köppen-Geiger classification. We analysed the NDVI time series regarding significant characteristics of the re-vegetation phase. We applied hierarchical cluster analysis to capture the spatial heterogeneity between different pixels (ca. 250 * 250 m2 each) in and around each open cast mine. We disentangled seasonality, trend and residual components in the NDVI time series by Seasonal and Trend decomposition using LOESS. As expected the time of the removal of vegetation can be clearly identified from the NDVI time series and provides the starting point of disturbance. The cluster analysis allowed us to distinguish between the non-mining land, the mine and the restored land of different ages. Based on these clusters, the time series decomposition revealed the dominance of the trend of increasing NDVI in areas undergoing the restoration process as well as the prevailing seasonality of the oldest restored sites. The determined phase of a dominant trend component, lasting until the NDVI is in the range of the surrounding landscape or the pre-mining conditions, is in the scale of a decade. The impacts of different hydroclimatic regimes and different rehabilitation strategies on long term NDVI development are currently being investigated. Furthermore, coherence analysis will be applied to quantify short term influences of hydrometeorological variables on vegetation development.

Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Woodworth, P. L.; Albrecht, F.; Dillingh, D.; Jensen, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Weisse, R.; Wöppelmann, G.

2013-09-01

This paper assesses historic changes in mean sea level around the coastline of the North Sea, one of the most densely populated coasts in the world. Typically, such analyses have been conducted at a national level, and detailed geographically wider analyses have not been undertaken for about 20 years. We analyse long records (up to 200 years) from 30 tide gauge sites, which are reasonably uniformly distributed along the coastline, and: (1) calculate relative sea level trends; (2) examine the inter-annual and decadal variations; (3) estimate regional geocentric (sometimes also referred to as 'absolute') sea level rise throughout the 20th century; and (4) assess the evidence for regional acceleration of sea-level rise. Relative sea level changes are broadly consistent with known vertical land movement patterns. The inter-annual and decadal variability is partly coherent across the region, but with some differences between the Inner North Sea and the English Channel. Data sets from various sources are used to provide estimates of the geocentric sea level changes. The long-term geocentric mean sea level trend for the 1900 to 2011 period is estimated to be 1.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr for the entire North Sea region. The trend is slightly higher for the Inner North Sea (i.e. 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr), and smaller but not significantly different on the 95% confidence level for the English Channel (i.e. 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr). The uncertainties in the estimates of vertical land movement rates are still large, and the results from a broad range of approaches for determining these rates are not consistent. Periods of sea level rise acceleration are detected at different times throughout the last 200 years and are to some extent related to air pressure variations. The recent rates of sea level rise (i.e. over the last two to three decades) are high compared to the long-term average, but are comparable to those which have been observed at other times in the late 19th and 20th century.

Characterizing Air Temperature Changes in the Tarim Basin over 1960–2012

PubMed Central

Peng, Dongmei; Wang, Xiujun; Zhao, Chenyi; Wu, Xingren; Jiang, Fengqing; Chen, Pengxiang

2014-01-01

There has been evidence of warming rate varying largely over space and between seasons. However, little has been done to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin, northwest China. In this study, we collected daily air temperature from 19 meteorological stations for the period of 1960–2012, and analyzed annual mean temperature (AMT), the annual minimum (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax), and mean temperatures of all twelve months and four seasons and their anomalies. Trend analyses, standard deviation of the detrended anomaly (SDDA) and correlations were carried out to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of various mean air temperatures. Our data showed that increasing trend was much greater in the Tmin (0.55°C/10a) than in the AMT (0.25°C/10a) and Tmax (0.12°C/10a), and the fluctuation followed the same order. There were large spatial variations in the increasing trends of both AMT (from −0.09 to 0.43 °C/10a) and Tmin (from 0.15 to 1.12°C/10a). Correlation analyses indicated that AMT had a significantly linear relationship with Tmin and the mean temperatures of four seasons. There were also pronounced changes in the monthly air temperature from November to March at decadal time scale. The seasonality (i.e., summer and winter difference) of air temperature was stronger during the period of 1960–1979 than over the recent three decades. Our preliminary analyses indicated that local environmental conditions (such as elevation) might be partly responsible for the spatial variability, and large scale climate phenomena might have influences on the temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin. In particular, there was a significant correlation between index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and air temperature of May (P = 0.004), and between the index of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and air temperature of July (P = 0.026) over the interannual to decadal time scales. PMID:25375648

Identification of rice supply chain risk to DKI Jakarta through Cipinang primary rice market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, D.; Ariwibowo, A.; Mardianto, I.; Surjasa, D.

2018-01-01

This paper identifies several sources of risks in DKI Jakarta rice supply chain that through Cipinang Primary Rice Market (CPRM). Secondary data from several sources were collected and analysed using pareto chart and time series analysis. Based on the pareto analysis, it was known that there was a change in the order of suppliers whereas in 2011, 80% of the supply came only from Cirebon, Karawang and Bandung (West Java Province). While in 2015 the main source of supply changed to Cirebon, Central Java and Karawang. Linear trend equation using decomposition model for Cirebon and Karawang showed trend of decreasing monthly supply while Central Java had a positive trend. Harvest area of wetland paddy in Cirebon and Karawang showed a negative trend in the last 6 years. The data also showed that West Java Province was the province with the largest rice crop area affected by plant organism attack and drought disaster in 2015. DKI Jakarta had several potential supply chain risks from rice supply, drought risk and pests risk where the province of West Java, which previously could become a major supplier began to require supply assistance from other provinces, especially Central Java.

Trends in Dementia Incidence in a Birth Cohort Analysis of the Einstein Aging Study.

PubMed

Derby, Carol A; Katz, Mindy J; Lipton, Richard B; Hall, Charles B

2017-11-01

Trends in dementia incidence rates have important implications for planning and prevention. To better understand incidence trends over time requires separation of age and cohort effects, and few prior studies have used this approach. To examine trends in dementia incidence and concomitant trends in cardiovascular comorbidities among individuals aged 70 years or older who were enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study between 1993 and 2015. In this birth cohort analysis of all-cause dementia incidence in persons enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study from October 20, 1993, through November 17, 2015, a systematically recruited, population-based sample of 1348 participants from Bronx County, New York, who were 70 years or older without dementia at enrollment and at least one annual follow-up was studied. Poisson regression was used to model dementia incidence as a function of age, sex, educational level, race, and birth cohort, with profile likelihood used to identify the timing of significant increases or decreases in incidence. Birth year and age. Incident dementia defined by consensus case conference based on annual, standardized neuropsychological and neurologic examination findings, using criteria from the DSM-IV. Among 1348 individuals (mean [SD] baseline age, 78.5 [5.4] years; 830 [61.6%] female; 915 [67.9%] non-Hispanic white), 150 incident dementia cases developed during 5932 person-years (mean [SD] follow-up, 4.4 [3.4] years). Dementia incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Incidence per 100 person-years was 5.09 in birth cohorts before 1920, 3.11 in the 1920 through 1924 birth cohorts, 1.73 in the 1925 through 1929 birth cohorts, and 0.23 in cohorts born after 1929. Change point analyses identified a significant decrease in dementia incidence among those born after July 1929 (95% CI, June 1929 to January 1930). The relative rate for birth cohorts before July 1929 vs after was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.41). Prevalence of stroke and myocardial infarction decreased across successive birth cohorts, whereas diabetes prevalence increased. Adjustment for these cardiovascular comorbidities did not explain the decreased dementia incidence rates for more recent birth cohorts. Analyses confirm decreasing dementia incidence in this population-based sample. Whether decreasing incidence will contribute to reduced burden of dementia given the aging of the population is not known.

Educational Inequalities in Obesity among Mexican Women: Time-Trends from 1988 to 2012

PubMed Central

Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A.; Brunner, Eric J.

2014-01-01

Background Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Methods Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Results Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend p<0.001). Obesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988–2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. Conclusions The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys. PMID:24599098

Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

PubMed

Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

2014-01-01

Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend p<0.001). Obesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

Climate Trend Detection using Sea-Surface Temperature Data-sets from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR Space Sensors.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.; Noyes, E. J.; Good, S. A.

2007-05-01

Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) is an important indicator of global change, designated by GCOS as an essential Climate Variable (ECV). The detection of trends in Global SST requires rigorous measurements that are not only global, but also highly accurate and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in SST data. This paper presents an analysis of 15 years of SST data from two independent data sets, generated from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR series of sensors respectively. The analyses reveal trends of increasing global temperature between 0.13°C to 0.18 °C, per decade, closely matching that expected from some current predictions. A high level of consistency in the results from the two independent observing systems is seen, which gives increased confidence in data from both systems and also enables comparative analyses of the accuracy and stability of both data sets to be carried out. The conclusion is that these satellite SST data-sets provide important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change. An analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of gross transitory disturbances, notably the El Niño, in order to examine regional areas of change other than the tropical Pacific, is also presented. Interestingly, although El Niño events clearly affect SST globally, they are found to have a non- significant (within error) effect on the calculated trends, which changed by only 0.01 K/decade when the pattern of El Niño and the associated variations was removed from the SST record. Although similar global trends were calculated for these two independent data sets, larger regional differences are noted. Evidence of decreased temperatures after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was also observed. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data-sets, which cover long time-series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterise long-term change.

Trends in Occupational Exposure to Styrene in the European Glass Fibre-Reinforced Plastics Industry

PubMed Central

Van Rooij, J. G. M.; Kasper, A.; Triebig, G.; Werner, P.; Kromhout, H.

2008-01-01

Aim: This study presents temporal trends of styrene exposure for workers in the European glass fibre-reinforced plastics (GRP) industry during the period 1966–2002. Methods: Data of personal styrene exposure measurements were retrieved from reports, databases and peer-reviewed papers. Only sources with descriptive statistics of personal measurements were accepted. The styrene exposure data cover personal air samples and biological monitoring data, that is, urinary styrene metabolites (mandelic acid and/or phenylglyoxylic acid) and styrene in blood. Means of series of measurements were categorized by year, country, production process, job and sampling strategy. Linear mixed models were used to identify temporal trends and factors affecting exposure levels. Results: Personal exposure measurements were available from 60 reports providing data on 24145 1–8-h time-weighted average shift personal air samples. Available data of biological exposure indicators included measurements of mandelic acid in post-shift urine (6361 urine samples being analysed). Trend analyses of the available styrene exposure data showed that the average styrene concentration in the breathing zone of open-mould workers in the European GRP industry has decreased on average by 5.3% per year during the period 1966–1990 and by only 0.4% annually in the period after 1990. The highest exposures were measured in Southern Europe and the lowest exposures in Northern Europe with Central Europe in between. Biological indicators of styrene (mandelic acid in post-shift urine) showed a somewhat steeper decline (8.9%), most likely because urine samples were collected in companies that showed a stronger decrease of styrene exposure in air than GRP companies where no biological measurements were carried out. PMID:18550625

Tumour stage distribution and survival of malignant melanoma in Germany 2002-2011.

PubMed

Schoffer, Olaf; Schülein, Stefanie; Arand, Gerlinde; Arnholdt, Hans; Baaske, Dieter; Bargou, Ralf C; Becker, Nikolaus; Beckmann, Matthias W; Bodack, Yves; Böhme, Beatrix; Bozkurt, Tayfun; Breitsprecher, Regine; Buchali, Andre; Burger, Elke; Burger, Ulrike; Dommisch, Klaus; Elsner, Gudrun; Fernschild, Karin; Flintzer, Ulrike; Funke, Uwe; Gerken, Michael; Göbel, Hubert; Grobe, Norbert; Gumpp, Vera; Heinzerling, Lucie; Kempfer, Lana Raffaela; Kiani, Alexander; Klinkhammer-Schalke, Monika; Klöcking, Sabine; Kreibich, Ute; Knabner, Katrin; Kuhn, Peter; Lutze, Stine; Mäder, Uwe; Maisel, Tanja; Maschke, Jan; Middeke, Martin; Neubauer, Andreas; Niedostatek, Antje; Opazo-Saez, Anabelle; Peters, Christoph; Schell, Beatrice; Schenkirsch, Gerhard; Schmalenberg, Harald; Schmidt, Peter; Schneider, Constanze; Schubotz, Birgit; Seide, Anika; Strecker, Paul; Taubenheim, Sabine; Wackes, Matthias; Weiß, Steffen; Welke, Claudia; Werner, Carmen; Wittekind, Christian; Wulff, Jörg; Zettl, Heike; Klug, Stefanie J

2016-12-05

Over the past two decades, there has been a rising trend in malignant melanoma incidence worldwide. In 2008, Germany introduced a nationwide skin cancer screening program starting at age 35. The aims of this study were to analyse the distribution of malignant melanoma tumour stages over time, as well as demographic and regional differences in stage distribution and survival of melanoma patients. Pooled data from 61 895 malignant melanoma patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2011 and documented in 28 German population-based and hospital-based clinical cancer registries were analysed using descriptive methods, joinpoint regression, logistic regression and relative survival. The number of annually documented cases increased by 53.2% between 2002 (N = 4 779) and 2011 (N = 7 320). There was a statistically significant continuous positive trend in the proportion of stage UICC I cases diagnosed between 2002 and 2011, compared to a negative trend for stage UICC II. No trends were found for stages UICC III and IV respectively. Age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.97-0.97), sex (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.25), date of diagnosis (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06), 'diagnosis during screening' (OR 3.24, 95% CI 2.50-4.19) and place of residence (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16-1.30) had a statistically significant influence on the tumour stage at diagnosis. The overall 5-year relative survival for invasive cases was 83.4% (95% CI 82.8-83.9%). No distinct changes in the distribution of malignant melanoma tumour stages among those aged 35 and older were seen that could be directly attributed to the introduction of skin cancer screening in 2008.

Cost trend analysis of initial cancer treatment in Taiwan.

PubMed

Li, Tsai-Yun; Hsieh, Jan-Sing; Lee, King-Teh; Hou, Ming-Feng; Wu, Chia-Ling; Kao, Hao-Yun; Shi, Hon-Yi

2014-01-01

Despite the high cost of initial cancer care, that is, care in the first year after diagnosis, limited information is available for specific categories of cancer-related costs, especially costs for specific services. This study purposed to identify causes of change in cancer treatment costs over time and to perform trend analyses of the percentage of cancer patients who had received a specific treatment type and the mean cost of care for patients who had received that treatment. The analysis of trends in initial treatment costs focused on cancer-related surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and treatments other than active treatments. For each cancer-specific trend, slopes were calculated for regression models with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses of patients diagnosed in 2007 showed that the National Health Insurance (NHI) system paid, on average, $10,780 for initial care of a gastric cancer patient and $10,681 for initial care of a lung cancer patient, which were inflation-adjusted increases of $6,234 and $5,522, respectively, over the 1996 care costs. During the same interval, the mean NHI payment for initial care for the five specific cancers increased significantly (p<0.05). Hospitalization costs comprised the largest portion of payments for all cancers. During 1996-2007, the use of chemotherapy and radiation therapy significantly increased in all cancer types (p<0.05). In 2007, NHI payments for initial care for these five cancers exceeded $12 billion, and gastric and lung cancers accounted for the largest share. In addition to the growing number of NHI beneficiaries with cancer, treatment costs and the percentage of patients who undergo treatment are growing. Therefore, the NHI must accurately predict the economic burden of new chemotherapy agents and radiation therapies and may need to develop programs for stratifying patients according to their potential benefit from these expensive treatments.

National trends in pancreaticoduodenal trauma: interventions and outcomes.

PubMed

Ragulin-Coyne, Elizaveta; Witkowski, Elan R; Chau, Zeling; Wemple, Daniel; Ng, Sing Chau; Santry, Heena P; Shah, Shimul A; Tseng, Jennifer F

2014-03-01

Pancreaticoduodenal trauma (PDT) is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. In this study, contemporary trends were analysed using national data. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for 1998-2009 was queried for patients with PDT. Interventions including any operation (Any-Op) and pancreas-specific surgery (PSURG) were identified. Trends in treatment and outcomes were determined [complications, length of stay (LoS), mortality] for the Any-Op, PSURG and non-operative (Non-Op) groups. Analyses included chi-squared tests, Cochran-Armitage trend tests and logistic regression. A total of 27 216 patients (nationally weighted) with PDT were identified. Over time, the frequency of PDT increased by 8.3%, whereas the proportion of patients submitted to PSURG declined (from 21.7% to 19.8%; P = 0.0004) and the percentage of patients submitted to non-operative management increased (from 56.7% to 59.1%; P = 0.01). In the Non-Op group, mortality decreased from 9.7% to 8.6% (P < 0.001); morbidity and LoS remained unchanged at ∼40% and ∼12 days, respectively. In the PSURG group, mortality remained stable at ∼15%, complications increased from 50.2% to 71.8% (P < 0.0001) and LoS remained stable at ∼21 days. For all PDT patients, significant independent predictors of mortality included: the presence of combined pancreatic and duodenal injuries; penetrating trauma, and age >50 years. Having any operation (Any-Op) was associated with mortality, but PSURG was not a predictor of death. The utilization of operations for PDT has declined without affecting mortality, but operative morbidity increased significantly over the 12 years to 2009. The development of an evidence-based approach to invasive manoeuvres and an early multidisciplinary approach involving pancreatic surgeons may improve outcomes in patients with these morbid injuries. © 2013 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

National trends in pancreaticoduodenal trauma: interventions and outcomes

PubMed Central

Ragulin-Coyne, Elizaveta; Witkowski, Elan R; Chau, Zeling; Wemple, Daniel; Ng, Sing Chau; Santry, Heena P; Shah, Shimul A; Tseng, Jennifer F

2014-01-01

Objectives:Pancreaticoduodenal trauma (PDT) is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. In this study, contemporary trends were analysed using national data. Methods:The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for 1998–2009 was queried for patients with PDT. Interventions including any operation (Any-Op) and pancreas-specific surgery (PSURG) were identified. Trends in treatment and outcomes were determined [complications, length of stay (LoS), mortality] for the Any-Op, PSURG and non-operative (Non-Op) groups. Analyses included chi-squared tests, Cochran–Armitage trend tests and logistic regression. Results:A total of 27 216 patients (nationally weighted) with PDT were identified. Over time, the frequency of PDT increased by 8.3%, whereas the proportion of patients submitted to PSURG declined (from 21.7% to 19.8%; P = 0.0004) and the percentage of patients submitted to non-operative management increased (from 56.7% to 59.1%; P = 0.01). In the Non-Op group, mortality decreased from 9.7% to 8.6% (P < 0.001); morbidity and LoS remained unchanged at ∼40% and ∼12 days, respectively. In the PSURG group, mortality remained stable at ∼15%, complications increased from 50.2% to 71.8% (P < 0.0001) and LoS remained stable at ∼21 days. For all PDT patients, significant independent predictors of mortality included: the presence of combined pancreatic and duodenal injuries; penetrating trauma, and age >50 years. Having any operation (Any-Op) was associated with mortality, but PSURG was not a predictor of death. Conclusions:The utilization of operations for PDT has declined without affecting mortality, but operative morbidity increased significantly over the 12 years to 2009. The development of an evidence-based approach to invasive manoeuvres and an early multidisciplinary approach involving pancreatic surgeons may improve outcomes in patients with these morbid injuries. PMID:23869407

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

2016-02-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

2015-03-28

Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0·0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, p<0·0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines. Heart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Description of the rates, trends and surgical burden associated with revision for prosthetic joint infection following primary and revision knee replacements in England and Wales: an analysis of the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man.

PubMed

Lenguerrand, Erik; Whitehouse, Michael R; Beswick, Andrew D; Toms, Andrew D; Porter, Martyn L; Blom, Ashley W

2017-07-10

To describe the prevalence rates of revision surgery for the treatment of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing knee replacement, their time trends, the cumulative incidence function of revision for PJI and estimate the burden of PJI at health service level. We analysed revision knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the National Joint Registry from 2003 to 2014 for England and Wales. The cohort analysed consisted of 679 010 index primary knee replacements, 33 920 index revision knee replacements and 8247 revision total knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence rates, their time trends investigated by time from index surgery to revision for PJI, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. The incidence of revision total knee replacement due to PJI at 2 years was 3.2/1000 following primary and 14.4/1000 following revision knee replacement, respectively. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the 3 months following primary knee replacement has risen by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3) from 2005 to 2013 and 7.5-fold (95% CI 1.0 to 56.1) following revision knee replacement. Over 1000 procedures per year are performed as a consequence of knee PJI, an increase of 2.8 from 2005 to 2013. Overall, 75% of revisions were two-stage with an increase in use of single-stage from 7.9% in 2005 to 18.8% in 2014. Although the risk of revision due to PJI following knee replacement is low, it is rising, and coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision knee replacements, this represents an increasing and substantial treatment burden for orthopaedic service delivery in England and Wales. This has implications for future service design and the funding of individual and specialist centres. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Description of the rates, trends and surgical burden associated with revision for prosthetic joint infection following primary and revision knee replacements in England and Wales: an analysis of the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man

PubMed Central

Lenguerrand, Erik; Whitehouse, Michael R; Beswick, Andrew D; Toms, Andrew D; Porter, Martyn L; Blom, Ashley W

2017-01-01

Objectives To describe the prevalence rates of revision surgery for the treatment of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing knee replacement, their time trends, the cumulative incidence function of revision for PJI and estimate the burden of PJI at health service level. Design We analysed revision knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the National Joint Registry from 2003 to 2014 for England and Wales. The cohort analysed consisted of 679 010 index primary knee replacements, 33 920 index revision knee replacements and 8247 revision total knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence rates, their time trends investigated by time from index surgery to revision for PJI, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. Results The incidence of revision total knee replacement due to PJI at 2 years was 3.2/1000 following primary and 14.4/1000 following revision knee replacement, respectively. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the 3 months following primary knee replacement has risen by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3) from 2005 to 2013 and 7.5-fold (95% CI 1.0 to 56.1) following revision knee replacement. Over 1000 procedures per year are performed as a consequence of knee PJI, an increase of 2.8 from 2005 to 2013. Overall, 75% of revisions were two-stage with an increase in use of single-stage from 7.9% in 2005 to 18.8% in 2014. Conclusions Although the risk of revision due to PJI following knee replacement is low, it is rising, and coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision knee replacements, this represents an increasing and substantial treatment burden for orthopaedic service delivery in England and Wales. This has implications for future service design and the funding of individual and specialist centres. PMID:28698316

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Snowfall in Central New York - A Lake Effect Dominated Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartnett, Justin Joseph

Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (˜0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The influence of teleconnections on seasonal snowfall in CNY was not pronounced; however, there was a slight significant (5%) correlation (< 0.35) with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It was not clear if changes in air temperature or changes in precipitation were the cause of variations in snowfall trends. It was also inconclusive if the elevation or distance from Lake Ontario resulted in increased snowfall trends. Results from this study will aid in seasonal snowfall forecasts in CNY, which can be used to predict future snowfall. Even though the study area is regionally specific, the methods may be applied to other lake effect dominated areas to determine temporal and spatial variations in snowfall. This study will enhance climatologists and operational forecasters' awareness and understanding of snowfall, especially lake effect snowfall in CNY.

Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

2018-05-01

Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from central Highlands and north-eastern India, in regulating AOD over stations across IGP. Although our analyses provide some attributes to the observed changes in aerosol loading, we conclude that the spatial and temporal pattern of aerosol properties is highly complex and dynamic over IGP, and require further investigation in order to reduce uncertainty in aerosol-climate model.

EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, Augustin; Andersson, Camilla; Manders, Astrid; Mar, Kathleen; Mircea, Mihaela; Pay, Maria-Teresa; Raffort, Valentin; Tsyro, Svetlana; Cuvelier, Cornelius; Adani, Mario; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Bergström, Robert; Briganti, Gino; Butler, Tim; Cappelletti, Andrea; Couvidat, Florian; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Doumbia, Thierno; Fagerli, Hilde; Granier, Claire; Heyes, Chris; Klimont, Zig; Ojha, Narendra; Otero, Noelia; Schaap, Martijn; Sindelarova, Katarina; Stegehuis, Annemiek I.; Roustan, Yelva; Vautard, Robert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Garcia Vivanco, Marta; Wind, Peter

2017-09-01

The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990-2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have - to date - completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990-2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing.

Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

PubMed

Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

2017-08-28

Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend <0.05). The incidence of IADL disability remained stable from cohort 1997-2004 to cohort 2000-2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups (all p>0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Global Precipitation Analyses (3-Hourly to Monthly) Using TRMM, SSM/I and other Satellite Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 20-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 20 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENS0 variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 deg. latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is discussed. Finally, a TRMM-based 3-hr analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg. latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O deg. N-50 deg. S. Examples are shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

2017-07-01

With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

Daylight savings time and myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Sandhu, Amneet; Seth, Milan; Gurm, Hitinder S

2014-01-01

Background Prior research has shown a transient increase in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after daylight savings time (DST) in the spring as well as a decrease in AMI after returning to standard time in the fall. These findings have not been verified in a broader population and if extant, may have significant public health and policy implications. Methods We assessed changes in admissions for AMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) database for the weeks following the four spring and three fall DST changes between March 2010 and September 2013. A negative binomial regression model was used to adjust for trend and seasonal variation. Results There was no difference in the total weekly number of PCIs performed for AMI for either the fall or spring time changes in the time period analysed. After adjustment for trend and seasonal effects, the Monday following spring time changes was associated with a 24% increase in daily AMI counts (p=0.011), and the Tuesday following fall changes was conversely associated with a 21% reduction (p=0.044). No other weekdays in the weeks following DST changes demonstrated significant associations. Conclusions In the week following the seasonal time change, DST impacts the timing of presentations for AMI but does not influence the overall incidence of this disease. PMID:25332784

A reanalysis of cluster randomized trials showed interrupted time-series studies were valuable in health system evaluation.

PubMed

Fretheim, Atle; Zhang, Fang; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Oxman, Andrew D; Cheyne, Helen; Foy, Robbie; Goodacre, Steve; Herrin, Jeph; Kerse, Ngaire; McKinlay, R James; Wright, Adam; Soumerai, Stephen B

2015-03-01

There is often substantial uncertainty about the impacts of health system and policy interventions. Despite that, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are uncommon in this field, partly because experiments can be difficult to carry out. An alternative method for impact evaluation is the interrupted time-series (ITS) design. Little is known, however, about how results from the two methods compare. Our aim was to explore whether ITS studies yield results that differ from those of randomized trials. We conducted single-arm ITS analyses (segmented regression) based on data from the intervention arm of cluster randomized trials (C-RCTs), that is, discarding control arm data. Secondarily, we included the control group data in the analyses, by subtracting control group data points from intervention group data points, thereby constructing a time series representing the difference between the intervention and control groups. We compared the results from the single-arm and controlled ITS analyses with results based on conventional aggregated analyses of trial data. The findings were largely concordant, yielding effect estimates with overlapping 95% confidence intervals (CI) across different analytical methods. However, our analyses revealed the importance of a concurrent control group and of taking baseline and follow-up trends into account in the analysis of C-RCTs. The ITS design is valuable for evaluation of health systems interventions, both when RCTs are not feasible and in the analysis and interpretation of data from C-RCTs. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Algae viability over time in a ballast water sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollasch, Stephan; David, Matej

2018-03-01

The biology of vessels' ballast water needs to be analysed for several reasons, one of these being performance tests of ballast water management systems. This analysis includes a viability assessment of phytoplankton. To overcome logistical problems to get algae sample processing gear on board of a vessel to document algae viability, samples may be transported to land-based laboratories. Concerns were raised how the storage conditions of the sample may impact algae viability over time and what the most appropriate storage conditions were. Here we answer these questions with a long-term algae viability study with daily sample analysis using Pulse-Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometry. The sample was analysed over 79 days. We tested different storage conditions: fridge and room temperature with and without light. It seems that during the first two weeks of the experiment the viability remains almost unchanged with a slight downwards trend. In the continuing period, before the sample was split, a slightly stronger downwards viability trend was observed, which occurred at a similar rate towards the end of the experiment. After the sample was split, the strongest viability reduction was measured for the sample stored without light at room temperature. We concluded that the storage conditions, especially regarding temperature and light exposure, have a stronger impact on algae viability compared to the storage duration and that inappropriate storage conditions reduce algal viability. A sample storage time of up to two weeks in a dark and cool environment has little influence on the organism viability. This indicates that a two week time duration between sample taking on board a vessel and the viability measurement in a land-based laboratory may not be very critical.

Trends in reasons for non-receipt of influenza vaccination during pregnancy in Georgia, 2004-2011.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Allison T; Berkelman, Ruth L; Ault, Kevin A; Rosenberg, Eli S; Orenstein, Walter A; Omer, Saad B

2016-03-18

Considerable research has identified barriers to antenatal influenza vaccination, yet no research has explored temporal trends in reasons for non-receipt. To examine trends in reasons for non-receipt of influenza vaccination during pregnancy. Serial cross-sectional analyses using 8 years of Georgia Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring Survey (PRAMS) data were conducted. Weighted logistic regression was used to examine trends in the prevalence of citing reasons for non-receipt over time. Between 2004 and 2011, 8300 women reported no influenza vaccination during or immediately before pregnancy. Proportions of women citing "doctor didn't mention vaccination," "in first trimester during influenza season," and "not pregnant during influenza season" decreased significantly over time (Doctor didn't mention: 48.0% vs. 27.1%, test for trend p<0.001; in first trimester: 26.8% vs. 16.3%, test for trend p<0.001; not influenza season: 24.2% vs. 12.7%, test for trend p=0.001). Safety concerns increased over 2004 proportions in 2010 (concern about side effects for me: 40.2% vs. 28.5%, prevalence ratio (PR): 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.71; concern about harming my baby: 38.9% vs. 31.0%, PR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.53) and 2011 (concern about side effects for me: 39.0% vs. 28.5%, PR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.65; concern about harming my baby: 38.8% vs. 31.0%, PR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.50). Following the 2009/2010 H1N1 pandemic, more Hispanic women cited concern about vaccination harming their baby than other women; in 2011, their concern remained elevated relative to non-Hispanic white women (63% vs. 35%; adjusted PR=1.79, 95% CI: 1.23, 2.61). Examining trends in reasons for non-receipt of antenatal influenza vaccination can reflect successes related to vaccine promotion and areas for improvement. By highlighting differential impacts of the 2009/2010 H1N1 pandemic, we reveal opportunities for additional research on tailoring vaccine promotion efforts to specific types of women. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality in 109 countries, from 2000 to 2014: an analysis of death certificates.

PubMed

Zaccardi, Francesco; Dhalwani, Nafeesa N; Webb, David R; Davies, Melanie J; Khunti, Kamlesh

2018-07-01

In the context of increasing prevalence of diabetes in elderly people with multimorbidity, intensive glucose control may increase the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, potentially leading to death. While rising trends of severe hypoglycaemia rates have been reported in some European, North American and Asian countries, the global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality is unknown. We aimed to investigate global differences and trends of hypoglycaemia-related mortality. We used the WHO mortality database to extract information on death certificates reporting hypoglycaemia or diabetes as the underlying cause of death, and the United Nations demographic database to obtain data on mid-year population estimates from 2000 to 2014. We calculated crude and age-standardised proportions (defined as number of hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by total number of deaths from diabetes [i.e. the sum of hypoglycaemia- and diabetes-related deaths]) and rates (hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by mid-year population) of hypoglycaemia-related mortality and compared estimates across countries and over time. Data for proportions were extracted from 109 countries (31 had data from all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised proportion of hypoglycaemia-related deaths was 4.49 (95% CI 4.44, 4.55) per 1000 total diabetes deaths. Compared with the overall mean, most Central American, South American and (mainly) Caribbean countries reported higher proportions (five more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths in Chile, six in Uruguay, 11 in Belize and 22 in Aruba), as well as Japan (11 more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths). In comparison, lower proportions were noted in most European countries, the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. For countries with data available for all years analysed, trend analysis showed a 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable trends onwards. Rising trends were most evident for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the USA and Japan. Data for rates were available for 105 countries (30 had data for all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related death rate was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77, 0.80) per 1 million person-years. Most Central American, South American and Caribbean countries similarly reported higher rates of hypoglycaemia-related death, whilst virtually all European countries, the USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Australia reported lower rates compared with the overall mean. Age-standardised rates were very low for most countries (lower than five per 1 million person-years in 89.5% of countries), resulting in small absolute differences among countries. As noted with the proportions analysis, trend analysis showed an overall 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable rate trends onwards; rising rates were particularly evident for Brazil, Chile and the USA. Most countries in South America, Central America and the Caribbean showed the highest proportions of diabetes-related deaths attributable to hypoglycaemia and the highest rates of hypoglycaemia-related deaths. Between 2000 and 2014, rising trends were observed in Brazil, Chile and the USA for both rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related death, and in Argentina and Japan for proportions only. Further studies are required to unravel the contribution of clinical and socioeconomic factors, difference in diabetes prevalence and heterogeneity of death certification in determining lower rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related deaths in high-income countries in Europe, North America and Asia. Data used for these analyses are available at https://doi.org/10.17632/ndp52fbz8r.1.

America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences. Volume II. [Proceedings of the Research Conference on Racial Trends in the United States (Washington, D.C., October 15-16, 1998)].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smelser, Neil J., Ed.; Wilson, William Julius, Ed.; Mitchell, Faith, Ed.

This collection of papers explores past and current trends among African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, and Native Americans in the context of a white majority. The papers, presented at the 1998 Research Conference on Racial Trends in the United States, provide analyses of racial and social dynamics and recommendations for future…

Shorter Harvest Cycles Counteract Increasing Annual Productivity in Industrial Plantation Forests: Trends from Three Decades of Remote Sensing in Southeastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, D.; Jackson, R. B.

2017-12-01

Plantation forestry can produce woody biomass many times faster than native vegetation, particularly in the tropical regions where plantations have expanded rapidly in the past three decades. However, activists and practitioners have raised concerns over the sustainability of intensive plantations, suggesting that changes to soil properties may inhibit vegetation growth after multiple harvest cycles. We use a 32-year time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices derived from Landsat data, coupled with recent geospatial and wood volume data from plantation companies, to identify trends in management and vegetation productivity in thousands of individual eucalyptus plantation stands. We find that peak vegetation index values at canopy closure, which are correlated with annual wood volume increment, increase over successive harvest cycles, while the length of each cycle decreases. These opposing trends suggest that the number of harvests required to produce a given wood volume peaks around the second harvest cycle and then declines, likely due to refinement of management practices. Across the region, vegetation index data do not support the hypothesized decrease in productivity over multiple harvest cycles. Additional field data and ongoing soil analyses will complement the remote sensing approach to quantifying plantations' long-term effects on the land they occupy.

The Vegetation Trends and Drivers in Beijing-Tianjing Region from 1982 TO 2013 Based on Time Series Gimms NDVI3g

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Tian, H.; Wang, X.; Li, H.; He, Y.

2018-04-01

Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

Differential patterns, trends and hotspots of road traffic injuries on different road networks in Vellore district, southern India.

PubMed

Mohan, Venkata Raghava; Sarkar, Rajiv; Abraham, Vinod Joseph; Balraj, Vinohar; Naumova, Elena N

2015-03-01

To describe spatial and temporal profiles of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) on different road networks in Vellore district of southern India. Using the information in the police maintained First Information Reports (FIRs), daily time series of RTI counts were created and temporal characteristics were analysed with respect to the vehicle, road types and time of the day for the period January 2005 to May 2007. Daily incidence and trend of RTIs were estimated using a Poisson regression analysis. Of the reported 3262 RTIs, 52% had occurred on the National Highway (NH). The overall RTI rate on the NH was 8.8/100 000 vehicles per day with significantly higher pedestrian involvement. The mean numbers of RTIs were significantly higher on weekends. Thirteen percentage of all RTIs were associated with fatalities. Hotspots are major town junctions, and RTI rates differ over different stretches of the NH. In India, FIRs form a valuable source of RTI information. Information on different vehicle profile, RTI patterns, and their spatial and temporal trends can be used by administrators to devise effective strategies for RTI prevention by concentrating on the high-risk areas, thereby optimising the use of available personnel and resources. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

PubMed

Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

2015-08-30

Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in musculoskeletal disorders and related health care utilization among conscripts in Finland, 1967-2006.

PubMed

Frilander, Heikki; Miranda, Helena; Mutanen, Pertti; Martelin, Tuija; Pihlajamäki, Harri; Viikari-Juntura, Eira

2012-09-01

The aim was to investigate time trends in musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) among Finnish conscripts over a period of 40 years. A nationally representative health examination survey (the Health 2000 study) was carried out in 2000-2001 among 10,000 adult Finns. All 18- to 50-year-old men were further sampled (n = 2674) and those with completion of the 6 to 12 month compulsory service were included. (n = 2296). Time trends in consultations because of MSDs during service and findings at call-up examinations were analysed. From 1967 to 2006 altogether 4872 MSD-related consultations were done, most commonly because of problems in the ankle or foot, knee, or back. The proportion of conscripts visiting military health care because of MSDs increased 1.6-fold (from 44 to 72%). The average number of MSD-related consultations per conscript tripled. The proportion of conscripts with > or = 6 consultations increased 5-fold and those seeking care for multisite symptoms increased 10-fold. No increase in symptoms or findings before service could be seen at preservice examinations. Conscripts seek care because of musculoskeletal symptoms considerably more often nowadays than before. More attention should be focused to the prevention of traumatic and overexertion injuries of the lower limbs, although the reasons for increasing careseeking should be further investigated.

Climatological Data for Clouds Over the Globe from Surface Observations (1988) (NDP-026)

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, Carole J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); Warren, Stephen G. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; London, Julius [Department of Astrophysical, Planetary, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; Jenne, Ray L. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Chervin, Robert M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

1988-01-01

With some data from as early as 1930, global long-term monthly and/or seasonal total cloud cover, cloud type amounts and frequencies of occurrence, low cloud base heights, harmonic analyses of annual and diurnal cycles, interannual variations and trends, and cloud type co-occurrences have been compiled and presented in two atlases (Warren et al. 1988, 1990). These data were derived from land and ship synoptic weather reports from the "SPOT" archive of the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC) and from Release 1 of the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) for the years 1930-1979. The data are in 12 files (one containing latitude, longitude, land-fraction, and number of land stations for grid boxes; four containing total cloud, cloud types, harmonic analyses, and interannual variations and trends for land; four containing total cloud, cloud types, harmonic analyses, and interannual variations and trends for oceans; one containing first cloud analyses for the first year of the GARP Global Experiment (FGGE); one containing cloud-type co-occurrences for land and oceans; and one containing a FORTRAN program to read and produce maps).

The Potential of Time Series Based Earth Observation for the Monitoring of Large River Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuenzer, C.; Leinenkugel, P.; Huth, J.; Ottinger, M.; Renaud, F.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Vo Khac, T.; Trinh Thi, L.; Dech, S.; Koch, P.; Le Tissier, M.

2015-12-01

Although river deltas only contribute 5% to the overall land surface, nearly six hundred million people live in these complex social-ecological environments, which combine a variety of appealing locational advantages. In many countries deltas provide the major national contribution to agricultural and industrial production. At the same time these already very dynamic environments are exposed to a variety of threats, including the disturbance and replacement of valuable ecosystems, increasing water, soil, and air pollution, human induced land subsidence, sea level rise, as well upstream developments impacting water and sediment supplies. A constant monitoring of delta systems is thus of utmost relevance for understanding past and current land surface change and anticipating possible future developments. We present the potential of Earth Observation based analyses and derived novel information products that can play a key role in this context. Along with the current trend of opening up numerous satellite data archives go increasing capabilities to explore big data. Whereas in past decades remote sensing data were analysed based on the spectral-reflectance-defined 'finger print' of individual surfaces, we mainly exploit the 'temporal fingerprints' of our land surface in novel pathways of data analyses at differing spatial-, and temporally-dense scales. Following our results on an Earth Observation based characterization of large deltas globally, we present in depth results from the Mekong Delta in Vietnam, the Yellow River Delta in China, the Niger Delta in Nigeria, as well as additional deltas, focussing on the assessment of river delta flood and inundation dynamics, river delta coastline dynamics, delta morphology dynamics including the quantification of erosion and accretion processes, river delta land use change and trends, as well as the monitoring of compliance to environmental regulations.

U.S. Department of Energy, Illness and Injury Surveillance Program, Worker Health Summary, 1995-2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Health, Safety and Security, Office of Illness and Injury Prevention Programs

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Illness and Injury Surveillance Program has created an opportunity to assess illness and injury rates and patterns among workers at participating sites for well over a decade. The Worker Health Summary introduces an additional perspective on worker health with the introduction of analyses comparing the experience of sites in different program offices and a focus on time trends covering a decade of worker illness and injury experience. These analyses by program office suggest that illness and injury patterns among National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) workers diverge in many ways from those seen among Environmental Managementmore » (EM) and Science workers for reasons not yet understood. These differences will receive further investigation in future special focus studies, as will other findings of interest. With the time depth now available in our data, the Worker Health Summary reveals an additional nuance in worker health trends: changing health patterns in a specialized and skilled but aging work force. Older workers are becoming an increasing percentage of the work force, and their absence rates for diseases such as diabetes and hypertension are increasing as well. The impact of these emerging health issues, if properly addressed, can be managed to maintain or even enhance worker health and productivity. Prevention strategies designed to reduce the toll of these health conditions appear warranted, and this report gives us an indication of where to focus them. The analyses that follow reflect the Illness and Injury Surveillance Program’s continued commitment to apply a public health perspective in protecting the health of DOE’s work force.« less

[German practice of involuntary commitment at both federal and state level after introduction of the Guardianship law (1992-2009)].

PubMed

Valdes-Stauber, J; Deinert, H; Kilian, R

2012-05-01

Given the steady rise of psychiatric coercive measures in Germany, the question arises whether this development is significantly influenced by the corresponding legal basis or through epidemiological, socio-economic or socio-structural factors. Based on full surveys of the Federal Ministry of Justice we examined the development and associations of 10 indicators of coercive psychiatric measures over a period of 18 years. Time trends of all indicators have been descriptively analysed. Statistical associations between time trends and between involuntary and admissions economic indicators were analysed by regression models. All annual involuntary commitment rates have increased, judicial ordered physical restraint measures particularly strongly (848%). The rate of judicial rejections of applied involuntary measures showed the lowest increase. On the other hand, quotas of involuntary admissions remained stable. In former East Germany, the involuntary admission rates are only a third of those in the former West Germany. Results of regression analyses indicate an excess increase of physical coercive measures in psychiatric hospitals in relation to the increase of psychiatric admissions. In former East Germany the rate of involuntary admissions at the federal state level is negatively correlated with the average gross income. The continuous increase of coercive psychiatric measures in consequence to the change in the Guardianship law suggests that this change has influenced the practice. The differences at federal and state levels, and the sharper rise in the former East Germany by lower rates in comparison to the former West Germany need an explanation, as well as the fact that the rate of involuntary admissions is associated at least in the former East Germany with economic conditions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Reduction of smoking in Dutch adolescents over the past decade and its health gains: a repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gielkens-Sijstermans, Cindy M; Mommers, Monique A; Hoogenveen, Rudolf T; Feenstra, Talitha L; de Vreede, Jacqueline; Bovens, Fons M; van Schayck, Onno C

2010-04-01

Smoking is the main preventable lifestyle-related risk factor threatening human health. In this study, time trends in smoking behaviour between 1996 and 2005 among adolescents enrolled in secondary school were assessed. In 1996, 2001 and 2005, a survey was conducted in the south-eastern region of the Netherlands. All students in second and fourth year of secondary education (1996: n = 20 000; 2001: n = 27 500; 2005: n = 24 000) were asked to complete a questionnaire about their smoking behaviour. A simulation model was used to estimate lifetime health gains related to the observed trends. In 1996, 2001 and 2005, the number of questionnaires analysed were 13 554 (68%), 20 767 (76%) and 17 896 (75%), respectively. The results show a decrease in 'ever smoking' as well as 'current smoking' between 1996 and 2005. Among second year high school students, current smoking prevalence decreased from 22.2% in 1996 to 8.0% in 2005 (P(trend) < 0.001). Among fourth year students, current smoking declined from 37.5% in 1996 to 22.0% in 2005 (P(trend) < 0.001). Time trends were not influenced by gender or educational level. Model projections show that if these students not take up smoking later in life, 11 500 new cases of COPD, 3400 new cases of lung cancer and 1800 new cases of myocardial infarction could be prevented for the Dutch 13-year-olds. This study found that, in the past decade, smoking prevalence among adolescents has declined by almost 50%, potentially resulting in a considerable reduction in new cases of COPD or lung cancer.

Time trends in health inequalities due to care in the context of the Spanish Dependency Law.

PubMed

Salvador-Piedrafita, Maria; Malmusi, Davide; Borrell, Carme

In Spain, responsibility for care of old people and those in situations of dependency is assumed by families, and has an unequal social distribution according to gender and socioeconomic level. This responsibility has negative health effects on the carer. In 2006, the Dependency Law recognised the obligation of the State to provide support. This study analyses time trends in health inequalities attributable to caregiving under this new law. Study of trends using two cross-sectional samples from the 2006 and 2012 editions of the Spanish National Health Survey (27,922 and 19,995 people, respectively). We compared fair/poor self-rated health, poor mental health (GHQ-12 >2), back pain, and the use of psychotropic drugs between non-carers, carers sharing care with other persons, and those providing care alone. We obtain prevalence ratios by fitting robust Poisson regression models. We observed no change in the social profile of carers according to gender or social class. Among women, the difference in all health indicators between carers and non-carers tended to decrease among those sharing care but not among lone carers. Inequalities tend to decrease slightly in both groups of men carers. Between 2006 and 2012, trends in health inequalities attributable to informal care show different trends according to gender and share of responsibility. It is necessary to redesign and implement policies to reduce inequalities that take into account the most affected groups, such as women lone carers. Policies that strengthen the fair social distribution of care should also be adopted. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region.

Temporal trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistant Gram-negative bacteria implicated in intensive care unit-acquired infections: a cohort-based surveillance study in Istanbul, Turkey.

PubMed

Durdu, Bulent; Kritsotakis, Evangelos I; Lee, Andrew C K; Torun, Perihan; Hakyemez, Ismail N; Gultepe, Bilge; Aslan, Turan

2018-05-08

This study assessed trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistant intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) in Istanbul, Turkey. Bacterial culture and antibiotic susceptibility data were collected for all GNB causing nosocomial infections in five adult ICUs of a large university hospital during 2012-2015. Multi-resistance patterns were categorised as multidrug (MDR), extensively-drug (XDR) and pandrug (PDR)-resistance. Patterns and trends were assessed using seasonal decomposition and regression analyses. Of 991 pathogenic GNB recorded, most frequent were Acinetobacter baumannii (35%), Klebsiella species (27%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (18%), Escherichia coli (7%) and Enterobacter species (4%). The overall infection rate decreased by 41% from 18.4 to 10.9 cases per 1000 patient-days in 2012 compared to 2015 (p <0.001), mostly representing decreases in bloodstream infections and pneumonias by A. baumannii and P. aeruginosa. XDR proportion in A.baumannii increased from 52% in 2012 to 72% in 2015, but only one isolate was colistin-resistant. Multi-resistance patterns remained stable in Klebsiella, with overall XDR and possible PDR proportions of 14% and 2%, respectively. A back-to-susceptibility trend was noted for P. aeruginosa in which the non-MDR proportion increased from 53% in 2012 to 71% in 2015. 88% of E.coli and 40% of Enterobacter isolates were MDR, but none was XDR. Antimicrobial resistance patterns in pathogenic GNB continuously change over time and may not reflect single-agent resistance trends. The proportionate amount of antimicrobial-resistant GNB may persist despite overall decreasing infection rates. Timely regional surveillance data are thus imperative for optimal infection control. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Chemotherapy of Infection and Cancer. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NAEP 1999 Long-Term Trend Technical Analysis Report: Three Decades of Student Performance. NCES 2005-484

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Nancy L.; McClellan, Catherine A.; Stoeckel, Joan J.

2005-01-01

This report provides an update to the technical analysis procedures documenting the 1996 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) as presented in "The NAEP 1996 Technical Report" (Allen, Carlson, and Zelenak, 1999). It describes how the 1999 long-term trend data were incorporated into the trend analyses. Since no national main…

The Impact of Baseline Trend Control on Visual Analysis of Single-Case Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mercer, Sterett H.; Sterling, Heather E.

2012-01-01

The impact of baseline trend control on visual analyses of AB intervention graphs was examined with simulated data at various values of baseline trend, autocorrelation, and effect size. Participants included 202 undergraduate students with minimal training in visual analysis and 10 graduate students and faculty with more training and experience in…

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

2018-01-01

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing larger populations). 

Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

2015 was the warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend — 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001. Credits: Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center Details: Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much. The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists agreed with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty. Read more: www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-reco... NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Findings from an ovine parasitological monitoring service provided by a rural veterinary practice in New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Kozaruk, M K; Churchill, R; Windsor, P A

2015-04-01

To describe an ovine parasitological monitoring service delivered by a rural veterinary practice and determine associations between flock, anthelmintic and monitoring factors and worm control. Retrospective study of records from a rural veterinary practice in south-eastern Australia over an 8.75-year period. Records of sheep producers using veterinary services for gastrointestinal parasite management from 1 August 2003 to 30 April 2012 were analysed. Results from pre- (FECt1 ) and post-treatment faecal egg counts (FECt2 ) were used to identify factors influencing anthelmintic effectiveness, calculated as faecal egg count reduction percentage (FECR%) by linear mixed model analyses. The trends in anthelmintic merchandising and uptake of veterinary services for parasite management were determined by logistic regression analyses. FECR% varied according to the treatment group used (P < 0.001), with an apparent decreasing effectiveness of the macrocylic lactone group over the duration of the study (P = 0.008). Wether and ram flocks displayed lower FECR% than ewe flocks (P < 0.05). Time between FECt1 and treatment (P = 0.031), as well as time between treatment and FECt2 (P < 0.001), had a significant negative association with FECR%. The proportion of properties purchasing 4-way combination anthelmintics increased significantly over the study period (P < 0.001), with declines observed in other anthelmintics (P < 0.05). The proportion of properties performing FECR% monitoring to those that purchased anthelmintics increased significantly over the study period (P = 0.001). Anthelmintic treatment type, sex of the flock and time between drenching and testing had the greatest influence on drench effectiveness (FECR%). An increasing reliance on 4-way combination drenches to manage gastrointestinal parasitism was demonstrated. Benefits of parasitological monitoring include: appropriate advice on parasitological management; observations on trends in regional anthelmintic usage; estimation of drench effectiveness; early indication of anthelmintic resistance; and improved service provision by the rural veterinary practice. © 2015 Australian Veterinary Association.

Soil Eukaryotic Microorganism Succession as Affected by Continuous Cropping of Peanut - Pathogenic and Beneficial Fungi were Selected

PubMed Central

Chen, Mingna; Li, Xiao; Yang, Qingli; Chi, Xiaoyuan; Pan, Lijuan; Chen, Na; Yang, Zhen; Wang, Tong; Wang, Mian; Yu, Shanlin

2012-01-01

Peanut is an important oil crop worldwide and shows considerable adaptability but growth and yield are negatively affected by continuous cropping. Soil micro-organisms are efficient bio-indicators of soil quality and plant health and are critical to the sustainability of soil-based ecosystem function and to successful plant growth. In this study, 18S rRNA gene clone library analyses were employed to study the succession progress of soil eukaryotic micro-organisms under continuous peanut cultivation. Eight libraries were constructed for peanut over three continuous cropping cycles and its representative growth stages. Cluster analyses indicated that soil micro-eukaryotic assemblages obtained from the same peanut cropping cycle were similar, regardless of growth period. Six eukaryotic groups were found and fungi predominated in all libraries. The fungal populations showed significant dynamic change and overall diversity increased over time under continuous peanut cropping. The abundance and/or diversity of clones affiliated with Eurotiales, Hypocreales, Glomerales, Orbiliales, Mucorales and Tremellales showed an increasing trend with continuous cropping but clones affiliated with Agaricales, Cantharellales, Pezizales and Pyxidiophorales decreased in abundance and/or diversity over time. The current data, along with data from previous studies, demonstrated that the soil microbial community was affected by continuous cropping, in particular, the pathogenic and beneficial fungi that were positively selected over time, which is commonplace in agro-ecosystems. The trend towards an increase in fungal pathogens and simplification of the beneficial fungal community could be important factors contributing to the decline in peanut growth and yield over many years of continuous cropping. PMID:22808226

Lung cancer mortality and exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in British coke oven workers.

PubMed

Miller, Brian G; Doust, Emma; Cherrie, John W; Hurley, J Fintan

2013-10-16

Workers on coke oven plants may be exposed to potentially carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particularly during work on the ovens tops. Two cohorts, employees of National Smokeless Fuels (NSF) and the British Steel Corporation (BSC) totalling more than 6,600 British coke plant workers employed in 1967, had been followed up to mid-1987 for mortality. Previous analyses suggested an excess in lung cancer risk of around 25%, or less when compared with Social Class IV ('partly skilled').Analyses based on internal comparisons within the cohorts identified statistical associations with estimates of individual exposures, up to the start of follow-up, to benzene-soluble materials (BSM), widely used as a metric for mixtures of PAHs. Some associations were also found with times spent in certain coke ovens jobs with specific exposure scenarios, but results were not consistent across the two cohorts and limitations in the exposure estimates were noted. The present study was designed to reanalyse the existing data on lung cancer mortality, incorporating revised and improved exposure estimates to BSM and to benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P), including increments during the follow-up and a lag for latency. Mean annual average concentrations of both BSM and B[a]P were estimated by analysis of variance (ANOVA) from concentration measurements at all NSF and six BSC plants, and summarised by job and plant, with a temporal trend (for the BSM only). These were combined with subjects' work histories, to produce exposure estimates in each year of follow-up, with a 10-year lag to allow for latency. Exposures to BSM and to B[a]P were sufficiently uncorrelated to permit analysis in relation to each variable separately.Lung cancer death risks during the follow-up were analysed in relation to the estimated time-dependent exposures, both continuous and grouped, using Cox regression models, with adjustment for age. Changing the exposure estimates changed the estimated relative risks compared with earlier results, but the new analyses showed no significant trends with continuous measures of exposure to either BSM or B[a]P, nor with time spent on ovens tops. Analyses with grouped exposures showed mixed results. Across all BSC plants, the relative risk coefficient for working 5 or more years on ovens tops, where the exposures were highest, was 1.81, which was statistically significant. However, results for those with 0-5 years on ovens tops did not suggest a trend; the evidence for an underlying relationship was thus suggestive but not strong. The new results are in line with previous findings; they show some signs consistent with an effect of coke ovens work on lung cancer risk, especially on ovens tops, but the preponderant absence of significant results, and the inconsistencies between results for NSF and BSC, highlight how little evidence there is in these data of any effect.

Lung cancer mortality and exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in British coke oven workers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Workers on coke oven plants may be exposed to potentially carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particularly during work on the ovens tops. Two cohorts, employees of National Smokeless Fuels (NSF) and the British Steel Corporation (BSC) totalling more than 6,600 British coke plant workers employed in 1967, had been followed up to mid-1987 for mortality. Previous analyses suggested an excess in lung cancer risk of around 25%, or less when compared with Social Class IV (‘partly skilled’). Analyses based on internal comparisons within the cohorts identified statistical associations with estimates of individual exposures, up to the start of follow-up, to benzene-soluble materials (BSM), widely used as a metric for mixtures of PAHs. Some associations were also found with times spent in certain coke ovens jobs with specific exposure scenarios, but results were not consistent across the two cohorts and limitations in the exposure estimates were noted. The present study was designed to reanalyse the existing data on lung cancer mortality, incorporating revised and improved exposure estimates to BSM and to benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P), including increments during the follow-up and a lag for latency. Methods Mean annual average concentrations of both BSM and B[a]P were estimated by analysis of variance (ANOVA) from concentration measurements at all NSF and six BSC plants, and summarised by job and plant, with a temporal trend (for the BSM only). These were combined with subjects’ work histories, to produce exposure estimates in each year of follow-up, with a 10-year lag to allow for latency. Exposures to BSM and to B[a]P were sufficiently uncorrelated to permit analysis in relation to each variable separately. Lung cancer death risks during the follow-up were analysed in relation to the estimated time-dependent exposures, both continuous and grouped, using Cox regression models, with adjustment for age. Results Changing the exposure estimates changed the estimated relative risks compared with earlier results, but the new analyses showed no significant trends with continuous measures of exposure to either BSM or B[a]P, nor with time spent on ovens tops. Analyses with grouped exposures showed mixed results. Across all BSC plants, the relative risk coefficient for working 5 or more years on ovens tops, where the exposures were highest, was 1.81, which was statistically significant. However, results for those with 0–5 years on ovens tops did not suggest a trend; the evidence for an underlying relationship was thus suggestive but not strong. Conclusions The new results are in line with previous findings; they show some signs consistent with an effect of coke ovens work on lung cancer risk, especially on ovens tops, but the preponderant absence of significant results, and the inconsistencies between results for NSF and BSC, highlight how little evidence there is in these data of any effect. PMID:24131617

Impact of a priori information on IASI ozone retrievals and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barret, B.; Peiro, H.; Emili, E.; Le Flocgmoën, E.

2017-12-01

The IASI sensor documents atmospheric water vapor, temperature and composition since 2007. The Software for a Fast Retrieval of IASI Data (SOFRID) has been developped to retrieve O3 and CO profiles from IASI in near-real time on a global scale. Information content analyses have shown that IASI enables the quantification of O3 independently in the troposphere, the UTLS and the stratosphere. Validation studies have demonstrated that the daily to seasonal variability of tropospheric and UTLS O3 was well captured by IASI especially in the tropics. IASI-SOFRID retrievals have also been used to document the tropospheric composition during the Asian monsoon and participated to determine the O3 evolution during the 2008-2016 period in the framework of the TOAR project. Nevertheless, IASI-SOFRID O3 is biased high in the UTLS and in the tropical troposphere and the 8 years O3 trends from the different IASI products are significantly different from the O3 trends from UV-Vis satellite sensors (e.g. OMI)..SOFRID is based on the Optimal Estimation Method that requires a priori information to complete the information provided by the measured thermal infrared radiances. In SOFRID-O3 v1.5 used in TOAR the a priori consists of a single O3 profile and associated covariance matrix based on global O3 radiosoundings. Such a global a priori is characterized by a very large variabilty and does not represent our best kowledge of the O3 profile at a given time and location. Furthermore it is biased towards the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. We have therefore implemented the possibility to use dynamical a priori data in SOFRID and performed experiments using O3 climatological data and MLS O3 analyses. We will present O3 distributions and comparisons with O3 radiosoundings from the different SOFRID-O3 retrievals. We will in particular assess the impact of the use of different a priori data upon the O3 biases and trends during the IASI period.

Trends in energy intake from alcoholic beverages by socio-demographic characteristics among US adults, 1989–2012

PubMed Central

Butler, Lauren; Poti, Jennifer M.; Popkin, Barry M.

2016-01-01

Background Long term US trends in alcoholic beverage calorie intakes remain unexamined, particularly with respect to changes in population subgroup-specific patterns over time. Objective This study examines shifts in the consumption of alcoholic beverages, in total and by beverage type, on any given day among US adults in relation to socio-demographic characteristics. Design This study was a repeated cross-sectional analyses of data from the 1989–1991 and 1994–1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals; 2003–2006 and 2009–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Participants/setting Adults ≥19 years (N = 39,298); a subset of alcoholic beverage consumers (n = 7,081) were studied. Statistical analyses performed Survey weighted mean per capita per day intakes (among all participants, both consumers of alcoholic beverages and non-consumers) and contributions of beer, wine, and liquor/mixed drinks to total alcoholic beverage energy were determined. Multivariable regression models were used to examine trends in the proportion of alcoholic beverage consumers and the per consumer intakes (among consumers of alcoholic beverages only). Results Per capita intakes from alcoholic beverages increased from 49 kcal/cap/d in 1989–1991 to 109 kcal/cap/d in 2003–2006 (p<0.001). The proportion consuming alcoholic beverages on any given day increased significantly from 1989–1991 to 2009–2012 (p for overall increasing trend <0.0001) for most socio-demographic subgroups. Per consumer alcoholic beverage calories increased between 1989–1991 and 1994–1996 (p<0.05) for many subpopulations. Adults with

Educational inequalities in subjective health in Germany from 1994 to 2014: a trend analysis using the German Socio-Economic Panel study (GSOEP).

PubMed

Moor, Irene; Günther, Sebastian; Knöchelmann, Anja; Hoebel, Jens; Pförtner, Timo-Kolja; Lampert, Thomas; Richter, Matthias

2018-06-08

As trend studies have shown, health inequalities by income and occupation have widened or remained stable. However, research on time trends in educational inequalities in health in Germany is scarce. The aim of this study is to analyse how educational inequalities in health evolved over a period of 21 years in the middle-aged population in Germany, and whether the trends differ by gender. Data were obtained from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period from 1994 to 2014. In total, n=16 339 participants (106 221 person years) aged 30-49 years were included in the study sample. Educational level was measured based on the 'Comparative Analysis of Social Mobility in Industrial Nations' (CASMIN) classification. Health outcomes were self-rated health (SRH) as well as (mental and physical) health-related quality of life (HRQOL, SF-12v2). Absolute Index of Inequality (Slope Index of Inequality (SII)) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated using linear and logarithmic regression analyses with robust SEs. Significant educational inequalities in SRH and physical HRQOL were found for almost every survey year from 1994 to 2014. Relative inequalities in SRH ranged from 1.50 to 2.10 in men and 1.25 to 1.87 in women (RII). Regarding physical HRQOL, the lowest educational group yielded 4.5 to 6.6 points (men) and 3.3 to 6.1 points (women) lower scores (SII). Although educational level increased over time, absolute and relative health inequalities remained largely stable over the last 21 years. For mental HRQOL, only few educational inequalities were found. This study found persistent educational inequalities in SRH and physical HRQOL among adults in Germany from 1994 to 2014. Our findings highlight the need to intensify efforts in social and health policies to tackle these persistent inequalities. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Patient safety climate profiles across time: Strength and level of safety climate associated with a quality improvement program in Switzerland-A cross-sectional survey study.

PubMed

Mascherek, Anna C; Schwappach, David L B

2017-01-01

Safety Climate has been acknowledged as an unspecific factor influencing patient safety. However, studies rarely provide in-depth analysis of climate data. As a helpful approach, the concept of "climate strength" has been proposed. In the present study we tested the hypotheses that even if safety climate remains stable on mean-level across time, differences might be evident in strength or shape. The data of two hospitals participating in a large national quality improvement program were analysed for differences in climate profiles at two measurement occasions. We analysed differences on mean-level, differences in percent problematic response, agreement within groups, and frequency histograms in two large hospitals in Switzerland at two measurement occasions (2013 and 2015) applying the Safety Climate Survey. In total, survey responses of 1193 individuals were included in the analyses. Overall, small but significant differences on mean-level of safety climate emerged for some subgroups. Also, although agreement was strong at both time-points within groups, tendencies of divergence or consensus were present in both hospitals. Depending on subgroup and analyses chosen, differences were more or less pronounced. The present study illustrated that taking several measures into account and describing safety climate from different perspectives is necessary in order to fully understand differences and trends within groups and to develop interventions addressing the needs of different groups more precisely.

Analysis of long-term groundwater storage trends in the Wairau aquifer, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wöhling, Thomas; Gosses, Moritz; Davidson, Peter; Wilson, Scott

2016-04-01

The Wairau Aquifer covers a small proportion of the Wairau catchment in the Marlborough District of New Zealand just prior to the river discharging into the sea. The aquifer is almost exclusively recharged by surface water from the Wairau River and serves as the major drinking water resource for Blenheim and the surrounding settlements on the Wairau Plain. Because a small but constantly declining trend in aquifer levels and spring flows have been observed over the past decades, it has been made a high priority by the Marlborough District Council to better understand the limits and the mechanics of the recharge mechanism. While previous research efforts have been centred at water budgets during low-flow conditions and steady-state modelling, this study aims at understanding the dynamics of river-groundwater exchange fluxes using information of Wairau river flows at three new gauging stations, time series of groundwater observations, spring flows and qualitative (soft-)knowledge. Both qualitative and quantitative observations were integrated into a transient numerical MODFLOW model and simulations were conducted with the calibrated model for a 20-year time period. The gravels of the Wairau aquifer are highly conductive with estimated lateral conductivity values exceeding 1km per day. Although there is also evidence for anisotropy of the aquifer materials, it was found that river recharge at the upper slopes of the Wairau aquifer was consistently happening under perched conditions. In addition, exchange fluxes seem to have a functional relationship with river discharge only under low flow conditions while the exchange fluxes appear to be capped at about 16-20 m³/s for medium and large river flows. Therefore, the Wairau aquifer storage seems to be vulnerable more to the occurrence and duration of extreme low flow periods. To analyse this further, we have analysed the frequency and re-occurrence of low flow periods from the Wairau river record and found that the days of flow below a critical threshold in a given year have increased in recent years. To link the river flow record to large-scale climatic drivers, we analysed the precipitation record from several rainfall stations in the Wairau catchment as well as daily time series of precipitation data from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) virtual climate station (VCS) network. The areal annual precipitation totals calculated from the VCS station data show a clear decline of precipitation since 1960. Shorter precipitation records from weather stations in the hilly ranges of the Wairau catchment seem to confirm the trend, while data from stations in the valleys or the Wairau Plains doesn't support the trend. The decline in areal precipitation and the corresponding increase in low flow periods of the Wairau river flows have a strong correspondence to the long-term trend in Wairau aquifer water levels, but other factors such as changes in the river bed morphology could also contribute. The reason for the decline of precipitation in the Wairau catchment is not yet known.

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe

PubMed Central

Turco, Marco; Bedia, Joaquín; Di Liberto, Fabrizio; Fiorucci, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Koutsias, Nikos; Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Xystrakis, Fotios; Provenzale, Antonello

2016-01-01

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980’s, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts. PMID:26982584

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; Bedia, Joaquín; Di Liberto, Fabrizio; Fiorucci, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Koutsias, Nikos; Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Xystrakis, Fotios; Provenzale, Antonello

2016-01-01

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980's, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts.

Variability of differences between two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage, including effects of time trends, Lower Arkansas River Basin, southeastern Colorado, 1998-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.; Edelmann, Patrick; Dash, Russell G.

2005-01-01

In the mid-1990s, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted rules governing measurement of tributary ground-water pumpage for the Arkansas River Basin. The rules allowed ground-water pumpage to be determined using one of two approaches?power conversion coefficient (PCC) or totalizing flowmeters (TFM). In addition, the rules allowed a PCC to be applied to the electrical power usage up to 4 years in the future to estimate ground-water pumpage. As a result of concerns about potential errors in applying the PCC approach forward in time, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with CDWR and Colorado Water Conservation Board, to evaluate the variability in differences in pumpage between the two approaches, including the effects of time trends. This report compared measured ground-water pumpage using TFMs to computed ground-water pumpage using PCCs by developing statistical models of relations between explanatory variables, such as site, time, and pumping water level, and dependent variables, which are based on discharge, PCC, and pumpage. When differences in pumpage (diffP) were computed using PCC measurements and power consumption for the same year (1998-2002), the median diffP, depending on the year, ranged from +0.1 to -2.9 percent; the median diffP for the entire period was -1.5 percent. However, when diffP was computed using PCC measurements applied to the next year's power consumption, the median diffP was -0.3 percent; and when PCC measurements were applied 2, 3, or 4 years into the future, median diffPs were +1.8 percent for a 2-year forward lag and +5.3 percent for a 4-year forward lag, indicating that pumpage computed with the PCC approach, as generally applied under the ground-water pumpage measurement rules by CDWR, tended to overestimate pumpage as compared to pumpage using TFMs when PCC measurement was applied to future years of measured power consumption. Analyses were done to better understand the causes of the time trend; an estimate of the overall trend with time (uncorrected for pumping water-level changes) yielded a trend of about 2.2 percent per lag year for diffP. A separate analysis that incorporated a surface-water diversion term in the statistical model rendered the time-trend term insignificant, indicating that the time trend in the models served as a surrogate for other variables, some of which reflect underlying hydrologic conditions. A more precise explanation of the potential causes of the time trend was not obtained with the available data. However, the model results with the surface-water diversion term indicate that much of the trend of 2.2 percent per lag year in diffP resulted from applying a PCC to estimate pumpage under hydrologic conditions different from those under which the PCC was measured. Although there is no evidence to conclude that the upward time trend determined in the data for this 5-year period would hold in the future, historical static ground-water levels in the study area generally have exhibited small variations over multidecadal time scales. Therefore, the approximately 2 percent per lag year trend determined in these data is expected to be a reasonable guideline for estimating potential errors in the PCC approach resulting from temporally varying hydrologic conditions between time of PCC measurement and pumpage estimation. Comparisons also were made between total, or aggregated, pumpage for a network of wells as computed by the PCC approach and the TFM approach. For 100 wells and a lag of 4 years between PCC measurement and pumpage estimation, there was a 95-percent probability that the difference between total network pumpage measured by the PCC approach and that measured using a TFM would be between 5.2 and 14.4 percent. These estimates were based on a bias of 2.2 percent per lag year estimated for the period 1998-2002 during which hydrologic conditions were known to have changed. Using the same assumptions, the estimated d

The Color Line and the Quality of Life in America. The Population of the United States in the 1980s. For the National Committee for Research on the 1980 Census. A Census Monograph Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farley, Reynolds; Allen, Walter R.

This book is about race and the differences race makes in the lives of Americans. Its mission is to convert 1980 census data into authoritative analyses of major changes and trends in American life. It includes the following chapters: (1) "Race in America: The Dilemma Continues"; (2) "Black Population Growth from Colonial Times to…

Human biological monitoring of suspected endocrine-disrupting compounds

PubMed Central

Faniband, Moosa; Lindh, Christian H; Jönsson, Bo AG

2014-01-01

Endocrine-disrupting compounds are exogenous agents that interfere with the natural hormones of the body. Human biological monitoring is a powerful method for monitoring exposure to endocrine disrupting compounds. In this review, we describe human biological monitoring systems for different groups of endocrine disrupting compounds, polychlorinated biphenyls, brominated flame retardants, phthalates, alkylphenols, pesticides, metals, perfluronated compounds, parabens, ultraviolet filters, and organic solvents. The aspects discussed are origin to exposure, metabolism, matrices to analyse, analytical determination methods, determinants, and time trends. PMID:24369128

Higher screen time is associated with overweight, poor dietary habits and physical inactivity in Brazilian adolescents, mainly among girls.

PubMed

Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro; De Andrade, Selma Maffei; Mesas, Arthur Eumann; Fernandes, Rômulo Araújo; Farias Júnior, José Cazuza

2016-01-01

To analyse the associations between high screen time and overweight, poor dietary habits and physical activity in adolescents according to sex. The study comprised 515 boys and 716 girls aged 14-17 years from Londrina, Brazil. Nutritional status (normal weight or overweight/obese) was assessed by calculating the body mass index. Eating habits and time spent in physical activity were reported using a questionnaire. The measurement of screen time considered the time spent watching television, using a computer and playing video games during a normal week. Associations between high screen time and dependent variables (nutritional status, eating habits and physical activity levels) were assessed by binary logistic regression, adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables. Most adolescents (93.8% of boys and 87.2% of girls) spent more than 2 hours per day in screen-time activities. After adjustments, an increasing trend in the prevalence of overweight and physical inactivity with increasing time spent on screen activities was observed for both sexes. Screen times of >4 hours/day compared with <2 hours/day were associated with physical inactivity, low consumption of vegetables and high consumption of sweets only in girls and the consumption of soft drinks in both sexes. The frequency of overweight and physical inactivity increased with increasing screen time in a trending manner and independently of the main confounders. The relationship between high screen time and poor eating habits was particularly relevant for adolescent girls.

Increasing Juniperus virginiana L. pollen in the Tulsa atmosphere: long-term trends, variability, and influence of meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle

2018-02-01

In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.

Disease-Specific Trends of Comorbidity Coding and Implications for Risk Adjustment in Hospital Administrative Data.

PubMed

Nimptsch, Ulrike

2016-06-01

To investigate changes in comorbidity coding after the introduction of diagnosis related groups (DRGs) based prospective payment and whether trends differ regarding specific comorbidities. Nationwide administrative data (DRG statistics) from German acute care hospitals from 2005 to 2012. Observational study to analyze trends in comorbidity coding in patients hospitalized for common primary diseases and the effects on comorbidity-related risk of in-hospital death. Comorbidity coding was operationalized by Elixhauser diagnosis groups. The analyses focused on adult patients hospitalized for the primary diseases of heart failure, stroke, and pneumonia, as well as hip fracture. When focusing the total frequency of diagnosis groups per record, an increase in depth of coding was observed. Between-hospital variations in depth of coding were present throughout the observation period. Specific comorbidity increases were observed in 15 of the 31 diagnosis groups, and decreases in comorbidity were observed for 11 groups. In patients hospitalized for heart failure, shifts of comorbidity-related risk of in-hospital death occurred in nine diagnosis groups, in which eight groups were directed toward the null. Comorbidity-adjusted outcomes in longitudinal administrative data analyses may be biased by nonconstant risk over time, changes in completeness of coding, and between-hospital variations in coding. Accounting for such issues is important when the respective observation period coincides with changes in the reimbursement system or other conditions that are likely to alter clinical coding practice. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Urban-rural fog differences in Belgrade area, Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujović, Dragana; Todorović, Nedeljko

2018-02-01

Urban/rural fog appearance during the last 27 years in the Belgrade region is analysed using hourly meteorological records from two meteorological stations: an urban station at Belgrade-Vračar (BV) and a rural station at Belgrade-Airport (BA). The effects of urban development on fog formation are discussed through analysis of fog frequency trends and comparison with a number of meteorological parameters. The mean annual and the mean annual minimum temperatures were greater at the urban BV station than at the rural BA station. The mean monthly relative humidity and the mean monthly water vapour pressure were greater at the rural than urban station. During the period of research (1988-2014), BA experiences 425 more days with fog than BV, which means that BV experiences fog for 62.68% of foggy days at BA. Trends in the number of days with fog were statistically non-significant. We analysed the fog occurrence during different types of weather. Fog in urban BV occurred more frequently during cyclonal circulation (in 52.75% of cases). In rural BA, the trend was the opposite and fog appeared more frequently during anticyclonic circulation (in 53.58% of cases). Fog at BV occurred most frequently in stable anticyclonic weather with light wind, when a temperature inversion existed (21.86% of cases). Most frequently, fog at BA occurred in the morning and only lasted a short time, followed by clearer skies during the anticyclonic warm and dry weather (22.55% of cases).

Occupational contact urticaria: lessons from the French National Network for Occupational Disease Vigilance and Prevention (RNV3P).

PubMed

Bensefa-Colas, L; Telle-Lamberton, M; Faye, S; Bourrain, J-L; Crépy, M-N; Lasfargues, G; Choudat, D; Momas, I

2015-12-01

Occupational contact urticaria (OCU) is an occupational contact dermatitis that can cause serious health consequences and disability at work. To describe OCU and its temporal trends by the main causal agents and activity sectors in a nationwide scheme in France. Using data from the French National Network for Occupational Disease Vigilance and Prevention (RNV3P), we described OCU reported during the period 2001-10 and analysed the temporal trends of OCU and OCU attributed to the most frequent agents over the study period. Trends analyses were supported by reporting odds ratios using a logistic regression model with reference to 2001, or with time as a continuous variable. During the study period, 251 cases of OCU were reported in RNV3P, half of which were due to natural rubber latex, in particular in the health and social work activity sector (HSW). The number of these cases declined significantly over the study period (19% per year), and particularly after 2006. Conversely, the other causes of OCU did not decrease. Using surveillance data from a French national network, this study has found that there was a significant decline in OCU due to natural rubber latex, particularly in the HSW, when powdered latex gloves were banned from French hospitals. Our results show the effectiveness of this preventive measure, and suggest that this practice should be extended to other sectors. © 2015 British Association of Dermatologists.

Trends of mortality from Alzheimer's disease in the European Union, 1994-2013.

PubMed

Niu, H; Alvarez-Alvarez, I; Guillen-Grima, F; Al-Rahamneh, M J; Aguinaga-Ontoso, I

2017-06-01

In many countries, Alzheimer's disease (AD) has gradually become a common disease in elderly populations. The aim of this study was to analyse trends of mortality caused by AD in the 28 member countries in the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. We extracted data for AD deaths for the period 1994-2013 in the EU from the Eurostat and World Health Organization database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 were computed. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses by gender and by European regions were conducted. Mortality from AD has risen in the EU throughout the study period. Most of the countries showed upward trends, with the sharpest increases in Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania. We recorded statistically significant increases of 4.7% and 6.0% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole EU. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period. According to the regional analysis, northern and eastern countries showed the steepest increases, whereas in the latter years mortality has declined in western countries. Our findings provide evidence that AD mortality has increased in the EU, especially in eastern and northern European countries and in the female population. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention policies. © 2017 EAN.

Evaluation of the personal dental services (wave 1) for Lambeth, Southwark and Lewisham primary care trusts--Part 1: Retrospective analyses of registration data and access issues.

PubMed

Best, Helen; Newton, Tim

2005-06-01

The purpose of the study was to undertake analyses of registration data for the personal dental services (PDS) of Lambeth, Southwark and Lewisham primary care trusts and relate the analyses to the PDS goal of increasing uptake of dental services. Secondary analyses of registration statistics provided by the Dental Practice Board were undertaken for both 1 years pre-PDS (October 1997 to September 1998) and post-PDS (October 1998 to March 2003) periods. Three sets of analyses were undertaken to consider different aspects of changing registrations: (1) Absolute numbers of patients registered at each time interval; (2) Rates of change in numbers of patients registered for the entire period after the introduction of PDS; and (3) Rates of change in numbers of patients registered for the most recent 3 years of available data. There was a significant increase in the numbers of children registered under capitation, post-PDS as compared to the pre-PDS level (all ages and both genders combined). Post-PDS, the rate of increase for the children was approximately one additional child per practice per month (0.96, 95% CI 0.41-1.52). Similarly there was a significant trend for increasing adults registrations over time of about two and a half adults per practice per month (2.42, 95% CI 0.90-3.95). There was no evidence of a change in registrations for children or adults in total over the most recent period of 3 years. The analysis of the absolute numbers of registered patients each month indicated that the PDS practices had more children registered than before the implementation of the PDS scheme, but not adults. Overall post-implementation there was a trend for increasing registrations in both children and adults, but the most recent data indicated a plateau effect. Further consideration of facilitators to achieve PDS goals of improved uptake of services is required, particularly as they relate to local contexts.

Influence of Wave Energetics on Nearshore Storms and Adjacent Shoreline Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadman, H. M.; McNinch, J. E.; Hanson, J.

2008-12-01

Large-scale climatic forcings (such as NAO and ENSO) are known to induce fluctuations in regional storm frequency and intensity. Morphology-based studies have traditionally focused on individual storms and their influence on the nearshore coastal wave regime and shoreline response. Few studies have attempted to link long-term observed changes in shoreline position, beach, and nearshore morphology with large-scale climatic forcings that influence regional storm patterns. In order to predict the response of coastlines to future sea level rise and climate change, we need to understand how changes in the frequency of storms affecting nearshore regions (nearshore storms) may influence trends in shoreline position and nearshore morphology. Nearly 30 years of wave data (deep and shallow) collected off of Duck, NC are examined for trends in storm frequency and/or intensity. Changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevation, as observed from monthly beach transects over the same period, are also investigated in light of the observed trends in hydrodynamic forcings. Our preliminary analysis was unable to identify any consistent linear trends (increases or decreases) in frequency or intensity over the ~30-year time period in either the offshore wave heights or the nearshore storm record. These data might suggest that previous observations of recent increases in storm intensity and frequency, speculated to be due to climate change, might be spatially limited. Future analyses will partition the contributions from individual wind sea and swell events in order to better identify long-term trends in wave energetics from the various wave generation regions in the Atlantic. At this location, offshore wave height and the nearshore storm record are dominated by seasonal fluctuations and a strong interdecadal- to decadal periodicity. Previous research in Duck, NC has suggested that changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevations are related both to seasonal trends as well as "storm groupiness". Our analyses support these findings, but also identify interdecadal- to decadal trends in the nearshore morphology. Despite these fluctuations, the overall position of the shoreline and elevation of the shoreface shows little net change over the 30 years investigated. We hypothesize that the interdecadal- to decadal periodicity in the morphology is driven largely by the influences of large-scale climatic forcings on the nearshore wave regime as reflected in the storm record. We also explore the relationship between morphological periodicity, storm and wave height periodicity, and climatic fluctuations.

An observationally centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

For planning and adaptation, guidance on trends in local climate is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This requires quantifying trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. These non-normal distributions vary both geographically and in time. The trends in the relevant quantiles may not simply follow the trend in the distribution mean. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs how the trend or sensitivity varies with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. These sensitivities are found to be geographically varying across Europe; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and central Italy. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201