Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Plante, Ianik; Carra, Claudio; Kim, Myung-Hee

2009-01-01

A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how GCR event rates mapped to biological signaling induction and relaxation times. We considered several hypotheses related to signaling and cancer risk, and then performed simulations for conditions where aberrant or adaptive signaling would occur on long-duration space mission. Our results do not support the conventional assumptions of dose, linearity and additivity. A discussion on how event-based systems biology models, which focus on biological signaling as the mechanism to propagate damage or adaptation, can be further developed for cancer and CNS space radiation risk projections is given.

Young Adult and Usual Adult Body Mass Index and Multiple Myeloma Risk: A Pooled Analysis in the International Multiple Myeloma Consortium (IMMC).

PubMed

Birmann, Brenda M; Andreotti, Gabriella; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Camp, Nicola J; Chiu, Brian C H; Spinelli, John J; Becker, Nikolaus; Benhaim-Luzon, Véronique; Bhatti, Parveen; Boffetta, Paolo; Brennan, Paul; Brown, Elizabeth E; Cocco, Pierluigi; Costas, Laura; Cozen, Wendy; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Foretová, Lenka; Giles, Graham G; Maynadié, Marc; Moysich, Kirsten; Nieters, Alexandra; Staines, Anthony; Tricot, Guido; Weisenburger, Dennis; Zhang, Yawei; Baris, Dalsu; Purdue, Mark P

2017-06-01

Background: Multiple myeloma risk increases with higher adult body mass index (BMI). Emerging evidence also supports an association of young adult BMI with multiple myeloma. We undertook a pooled analysis of eight case-control studies to further evaluate anthropometric multiple myeloma risk factors, including young adult BMI. Methods: We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis of usual adult anthropometric measures of 2,318 multiple myeloma cases and 9,609 controls, and of young adult BMI (age 25 or 30 years) for 1,164 cases and 3,629 controls. Results: In the pooled sample, multiple myeloma risk was positively associated with usual adult BMI; risk increased 9% per 5-kg/m 2 increase in BMI [OR, 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-1.14; P = 0.007]. We observed significant heterogeneity by study design ( P = 0.04), noting the BMI-multiple myeloma association only for population-based studies ( P trend = 0.0003). Young adult BMI was also positively associated with multiple myeloma (per 5-kg/m 2 ; OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3; P = 0.0002). Furthermore, we observed strong evidence of interaction between younger and usual adult BMI ( P interaction <0.0001); we noted statistically significant associations with multiple myeloma for persons overweight (25-<30 kg/m 2 ) or obese (30+ kg/m 2 ) in both younger and usual adulthood (vs. individuals consistently <25 kg/m 2 ), but not for those overweight or obese at only one time period. Conclusions: BMI-associated increases in multiple myeloma risk were highest for individuals who were overweight or obese throughout adulthood. Impact: These findings provide the strongest evidence to date that earlier and later adult BMI may increase multiple myeloma risk and suggest that healthy BMI maintenance throughout life may confer an added benefit of multiple myeloma prevention. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(6); 876-85. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Child Maltreatment Among Singletons and Multiple Births in Japan: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Yoshie; Oda, Terumi; Nagai, Noriyo; Sugimoto, Masako; Mizukami, Kenji

2015-12-01

The occurrence of multiple births has been recognized as a risk factor for child maltreatment. However, few population-based studies have examined the relationship between multiple births and child maltreatment. This study aimed to evaluate the degree of risk of child maltreatment among singletons and multiple births in Japan and to identify factors associated with increased risk. Using population-based data, we analyzed the database of records on child maltreatment and medical checkups for infants aged 1.5 years filed at Nishinomiya City Public Health Center between April 2007 and March 2011. To protect personal information, the data were transferred to anonymized electronic files for analysis. After adjusting by logistic regression for each associated factor and gestation number, multiples themselves were not associated with the risk of child maltreatment. However, compared with singletons, multiples had a significantly higher rate of risk factors for child maltreatment, including low birth weight and neural abnormality. Moreover, compared with mothers of singleton, mothers of twins had a significantly higher rate of poor health, which is a risk factor of child maltreatment. Multiples were not associated with the risk of child maltreatment. However, compared with singletons, multiples and their mothers had a significantly higher rate of risk factors of child maltreatment.

Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

PubMed

Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

2012-07-01

Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

2015-09-01

Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies

PubMed Central

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R.; Thompson, Simon G.; Wood, Angela M.; Tipping, Robert W.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Couper, David J.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Goya Wannamethee, S.; Morris, Richard W.; Kiechl, Stefan; Willeit, Johann; Willeit, Peter; Schett, Georg; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Yarnell, John W.; Gallacher, John; Cushman, Mary; Psaty, Bruce M.; Tracy, Russ; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Price, Jackie F.; Lee, Amanda J.; McLachlan, Stela; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Schöttker, Ben; Müller, Heiko; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Wennberg, Patrik; Salomaa, Veikko; Harald, Kennet; Jousilahti, Pekka; Vartiainen, Erkki; Woodward, Mark; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Arima, Hisatomi; Doi, Yasufumi; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Nijpels, Giel; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T.; Meade, Tom W.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cushman, Mary; Folsom, Aaron R.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Shea, Steven; Döring, Angela; Kuller, Lewis H.; Grandits, Greg; Gillum, Richard F.; Mussolino, Michael; Rimm, Eric B.; Hankinson, Sue E.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Pai, Jennifer K.; Kirkland, Susan; Shaffer, Jonathan A.; Shimbo, Daichi; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hillege, Hans L.; Amouyel, Philippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Evans, Alun; Ferrières, Jean; Sattar, Naveed; Westendorp, Rudi G.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Cantin, Bernard; Lamarche, Benoît; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Wingard, Deborah L.; Bettencourt, Richele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Aspelund, Thor; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Thorsson, Bolli; Kavousi, Maryam; Witteman, Jacqueline C.; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H.; Howard, Barbara V.; Zhang, Ying; Best, Lyle; Umans, Jason G.; Onat, Altan; Sundström, Johan; Michael Gaziano, J.; Stampfer, Meir; Ridker, Paul M.; Michael Gaziano, J.; Ridker, Paul M.; Marmot, Michael; Clarke, Robert; Collins, Rory; Fletcher, Astrid; Brunner, Eric; Shipley, Martin; Kivimäki, Mika; Ridker, Paul M.; Buring, Julie; Cook, Nancy; Ford, Ian; Shepherd, James; Cobbe, Stuart M.; Robertson, Michele; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; Alexander, Myriam; Butterworth, Adam S.; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Gao, Pei; Haycock, Philip; Kaptoge, Stephen; Pennells, Lisa; Thompson, Simon G.; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; White, Ian R.; Wood, Angela M.; Wormser, David; Danesh, John

2014-01-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

PubMed

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela M

2014-03-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.

Personalized long-term prediction of cognitive function: Using sequential assessments to improve model performance.

PubMed

Chi, Chih-Lin; Zeng, Wenjun; Oh, Wonsuk; Borson, Soo; Lenskaia, Tatiana; Shen, Xinpeng; Tonellato, Peter J

2017-12-01

Prediction of onset and progression of cognitive decline and dementia is important both for understanding the underlying disease processes and for planning health care for populations at risk. Predictors identified in research studies are typically accessed at one point in time. In this manuscript, we argue that an accurate model for predicting cognitive status over relatively long periods requires inclusion of time-varying components that are sequentially assessed at multiple time points (e.g., in multiple follow-up visits). We developed a pilot model to test the feasibility of using either estimated or observed risk factors to predict cognitive status. We developed two models, the first using a sequential estimation of risk factors originally obtained from 8 years prior, then improved by optimization. This model can predict how cognition will change over relatively long time periods. The second model uses observed rather than estimated time-varying risk factors and, as expected, results in better prediction. This model can predict when newly observed data are acquired in a follow-up visit. Performances of both models that are evaluated in10-fold cross-validation and various patient subgroups show supporting evidence for these pilot models. Each model consists of multiple base prediction units (BPUs), which were trained using the same set of data. The difference in usage and function between the two models is the source of input data: either estimated or observed data. In the next step of model refinement, we plan to integrate the two types of data together to flexibly predict dementia status and changes over time, when some time-varying predictors are measured only once and others are measured repeatedly. Computationally, both data provide upper and lower bounds for predictive performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Violence, abuse, alcohol and drug use, and sexual behaviors in street children of Greater Cairo and Alexandria, Egypt.

PubMed

Nada, Khaled H; Suliman, El Daw A

2010-07-01

To measure the prevalence of HIV/AIDS risk behaviors and related factors in a large, probability-based sample of boys and girls aged 12-17 years living on the streets of Egypt's largest urban centers of Greater Cairo and Alexandria. Time-location sampling (TLS) was used to recruit a cross-sectional sample of street children. Procedures entailed using key informants and field observation to create a sampling frame of locations at predetermined time intervals of the day, where street children congregate in the two cities, selecting a random sample of time-locations from the complete list, and intercepting children in the selected time-locations to assess eligibility and conduct interviews. Interviews gathered basic demographic information, life events on the street (including violence, abuse, forced sex), sexual and drug use behaviors, and HIV/AIDS knowledge. A total of 857 street children were enrolled in the two cities, with an age, sex, and time-location composition matching the sampling frame. The majority of these children had faced harassment or abuse (93%) typically by police and other street children, had used drugs (62%), and, among the older adolescents, were sexually active (67%). Among the sexually active 15-17-year-olds, most reported multiple partners (54%) and never using condoms (52%). Most girls (53% in Greater Cairo and 90% in Alexandria) had experienced sexual abuse. The majority of street children experienced more than one of these risks. Overlaps with populations at highest risk for HIV were substantial, namely men who have sex with men, commercial sex workers, and injection drug users. Our study using a randomized TLS approach produced a rigorous, diverse, probability-based sample of street children and documented very high levels of multiple concurrent risks. Our findings strongly advocate for multiple services including those addressing HIV and STI prevention and care, substance use, shelters, and sensitization of authorities to the plight of street children in Egypt.

Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for multiple pulmonary oligometastases: Analysis of number and timing of repeat SBRT as impact factors on treatment safety and efficacy.

PubMed

Klement, R J; Hoerner-Rieber, J; Adebahr, S; Andratschke, N; Blanck, O; Boda-Heggemann, J; Duma, M; Eble, M J; Eich, H C; Flentje, M; Gerum, S; Hass, P; Henkenberens, C; Hildebrandt, G; Imhoff, D; Kahl, K H; Klass, N D; Krempien, R; Lohaus, F; Petersen, C; Schrade, E; Wendt, T G; Wittig, A; Guckenberger, M

2018-03-03

Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for oligometastatic disease is characterized by an excellent safety profile; however, experiences are mostly based on treatment of one single metastasis. It was the aim of this study to evaluate safety and efficacy of SBRT for multiple pulmonary metastases. This study is based on a retrospective database of the DEGRO stereotactic working group, consisting of 637 patients with 858 treatments. Cox regression and logistic regression were used to analyze the association between the number of SBRT treatments or the number and the timing of repeat SBRT courses with overall survival (OS) and the risk of early death. Out of 637 patients, 145 patients were treated for multiple pulmonary metastases; 88 patients received all SBRT treatments within one month whereas 57 patients were treated with repeat SBRT separated by at least one month. Median OS for the total patient population was 23.5 months and OS was not significantly influenced by the overall number of SBRT treatments or the number and timing of repeat SBRT courses. The risk of early death within 3 and 6 months was not increased in patients treated with multiple SBRT treatments, and no grade 4 or grade 5 toxicity was observed in these patients. In appropriately selected patients, synchronous SBRT for multiple pulmonary oligometastases and repeat SBRT may have a comparable safety and efficacy profile compared to SBRT for one single oligometastasis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple Risks, Emotion Regulation Skill, and Cortisol in Low-Income African American Youth: A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kliewer, Wendy; Reid-Quinones, Kathryn; Shields, Brian J.; Foutz, Lauren

2009-01-01

Associations between multiple risks, emotion regulation skill, and basal cortisol levels were examined in a community sample of 69 African American youth (mean age = 11.30 years; 49% male) living in an urban setting. Multiple risks were assessed at Time 1 and consisted of 10 demographic and psychosocial risk factors including parent, child, and…

Local bladder cancer clusters in southeastern Michigan accounting for risk factors, covariates and residential mobility.

PubMed

Jacquez, Geoffrey M; Shi, Chen; Meliker, Jaymie R

2015-01-01

In case control studies disease risk not explained by the significant risk factors is the unexplained risk. Considering unexplained risk for specific populations, places and times can reveal the signature of unidentified risk factors and risk factors not fully accounted for in the case-control study. This potentially can lead to new hypotheses regarding disease causation. Global, local and focused Q-statistics are applied to data from a population-based case-control study of 11 southeast Michigan counties. Analyses were conducted using both year- and age-based measures of time. The analyses were adjusted for arsenic exposure, education, smoking, family history of bladder cancer, occupational exposure to bladder cancer carcinogens, age, gender, and race. Significant global clustering of cases was not found. Such a finding would indicate large-scale clustering of cases relative to controls through time. However, highly significant local clusters were found in Ingham County near Lansing, in Oakland County, and in the City of Jackson, Michigan. The Jackson City cluster was observed in working-ages and is thus consistent with occupational causes. The Ingham County cluster persists over time, suggesting a broad-based geographically defined exposure. Focused clusters were found for 20 industrial sites engaged in manufacturing activities associated with known or suspected bladder cancer carcinogens. Set-based tests that adjusted for multiple testing were not significant, although local clusters persisted through time and temporal trends in probability of local tests were observed. Q analyses provide a powerful tool for unpacking unexplained disease risk from case-control studies. This is particularly useful when the effect of risk factors varies spatially, through time, or through both space and time. For bladder cancer in Michigan, the next step is to investigate causal hypotheses that may explain the excess bladder cancer risk localized to areas of Oakland and Ingham counties, and to the City of Jackson.

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

Sequencing of disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a theoretical approach to optimizing treatment.

PubMed

Grand'Maison, Francois; Yeung, Michael; Morrow, Sarah A; Lee, Liesly; Emond, Francois; Ward, Brian J; Laneuville, Pierre; Schecter, Robyn

2018-04-18

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease which usually begins in young adulthood and is a lifelong condition. Individuals with MS experience physical and cognitive disability resulting from inflammation and demyelination in the central nervous system. Over the past decade, several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been approved for the management of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), which is the most prevalent phenotype. The chronic nature of the disease and the multiple treatment options make benefit-risk-based sequencing of therapy essential to ensure optimal care. The efficacy and short- and long-term risks of treatment differ for each DMT due to their different mechanism of action on the immune system. While transitioning between DMTs, in addition to immune system effects, factors such as age, disease duration and severity, disability status, monitoring requirements, preference for the route of administration, and family planning play an important role. Determining a treatment strategy is therefore challenging as it requires careful consideration of the differences in efficacy, safety and tolerability, while at the same time minimizing risks of immune modulation. In this review, we discuss a sequencing approach for treating RRMS, with importance given to the long-term risks and individual preference when devising a treatment plan. Evidence-based strategies to counter breakthrough disease are also addressed.

Method and apparatus for multiple-projection, dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scanning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feldmesser, Howard S. (Inventor); Magee, Thomas C. (Inventor); Charles, Jr., Harry K. (Inventor); Beck, Thomas J. (Inventor)

2007-01-01

Methods and apparatuses for advanced, multiple-projection, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scanning systems include combinations of a conical collimator; a high-resolution two-dimensional detector; a portable, power-capped, variable-exposure-time power supply; an exposure-time control element; calibration monitoring; a three-dimensional anti-scatter-grid; and a gantry-gantry base assembly that permits up to seven projection angles for overlapping beams. Such systems are capable of high precision bone structure measurements that can support three dimensional bone modeling and derivations of bone strength, risk of injury, and efficacy of countermeasures among other properties.

Using agent-based modeling to study multiple risk factors and multiple health outcomes at multiple levels.

PubMed

Yang, Yong

2017-11-01

Most health studies focus on one health outcome and examine the influence of one or multiple risk factors. However, in reality, various pathways, interactions, and associations exist not only between risk factors and health outcomes but also among the risk factors and among health outcomes. The advance of system science methods, Big Data, and accumulated knowledge allows us to examine how multiple risk factors influence multiple health outcomes at multiple levels (termed a 3M study). Using the study of neighborhood environment and health as an example, I elaborate on the significance of 3M studies. 3M studies may lead to a significantly deeper understanding of the dynamic interactions among risk factors and outcomes and could help us design better interventions that may be of particular relevance for upstream interventions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a promising method in the 3M study, although its potentials are far from being fully explored. Future challenges include the gap of epidemiologic knowledge and evidence, lack of empirical data sources, and the technical challenges of ABM. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

Update on risk stratification and treatment of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Kapoor, Prashant; Rajkumar, S Vincent

2011-10-01

Multiple myeloma is the second most common hematologic malignancy. Chromosomal aberrations are important prognostic determinants that influence the clinical decision-making in newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Patients are considered high-risk if any of the following features are detected: hypodiploidy, deletion 13 by cytogenetics, t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20) and/or 17 p deletion. In the absence of these features patients are considered standard risk. Outside of trials, risk-adapted therapy in the transplant-eligible high-risk patients advocates use of bortezomib-based induction therapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and bortezomib-based maintenance therapy. High-risk, transplant-ineligible patients should also utilize bortezomib as initial therapy since it is known to overcome the poor prognosis associated with some high-risk features. The goal of therapy in high-risk patients is to attain and maintain a state of complete remission as much as possible. In contrast, the standard-risk, transplant-eligible patients may be treated with either lenalidomide-dexamethasone or bortezomib-based therapy followed by ASCT. In such patients, ASCT can also be deferred until first relapse if the patients are tolerating initial therapy well. Lenalidomide maintenance therapy in the post-transplant setting in standard-risk patients is controversial and not recommended routinely. For transplant-ineligible standard-risk patients, multiple options exist, although in the absence direct comparisons, we prefer lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone over melphalan-based combinations. This review outlines evidence-based management approaches in NDMM, with a focus on risk-adapted therapy.

Assessment of Risk Factors of Intrauterine Adhesions in Patients With Induced Abortion and the Curative Effect of Hysteroscopic Surgery.

PubMed

Mo, Xiaoliang; Qin, Guirong; Zhou, Zhoulin; Jiang, Xiaoli

2017-10-03

To explore the risk factors for intrauterine adhesions in patients with artificial abortion and clinical efficacy of hysteroscopic dissection. 1500 patients undergoing artificial abortion between January 2014 and June 2015 were enrolled into this study. The patients were divided into two groups with or without intrauterine adhesions. Univariate and Multiple logistic regression were conducted to assess the effects of multiple factors on the development of intrauterine adhesions following induced abortion. The incidence rate for intrauterine adhesions following induced abortion is 17.0%. Univariate showed that preoperative inflammation, multiple pregnancies and suction evacuation time are the influence risk factors of intrauterine adhesions. Multiple logistic regression demonstrates that multiple pregnancies, high intrauterine negative pressure, and long suction evacuation time are independent risk factors for the development of intrauterine adhesions following induced abortion. Additionally, intrauterine adhesions were observed in 105 mild, 80 moderate, and 70 severe cases. The cure rates for these three categories of intrauterine adhesions by hysteroscopic surgery were 100.0%, 93.8%, and 85.7%, respectively. Multiple pregnancies, high negative pressure suction evacuation and long suction evacuation time are independent risk factors for the development of intrauterine adhesions following induced abortions. Hysteroscopic surgery substantially improves the clinical outcomes of intrauterine adhesions.

D-dimer levels over time and the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: an update of the Vienna prediction model.

PubMed

Eichinger, Sabine; Heinze, Georg; Kyrle, Paul A

2014-01-02

Patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) can be stratified according to their recurrence risk based on their sex, the VTE location, and D-dimer measured 3 weeks after anticoagulation by the Vienna Prediction Model. We aimed to expand the model to also assess the recurrence risk from later points on. Five hundred and fifty-three patients with a first VTE were followed for a median of 68 months. We excluded patients with VTE provoked by a transient risk factor or female hormone intake, with a natural inhibitor deficiency, the lupus anticoagulant, or cancer. The study end point was recurrent VTE, which occurred in 150 patients. D-dimer levels did not substantially increase over time. Subdistribution hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) dynamically changed from 2.43 (1.57 to 3.77) at 3 weeks to 2.27 (1.48 to 3.48), 1.98 (1.30 to 3.02) , and 1.73 (1.11 to 2.69) at 3, 9, and 15 months in men versus women, from 1.84 (1.00 to 3.43) to 1.68 (0.91 to 3.10), 1.49 (0.79 to 2.81) , and 1.44 (0.76 to 2.72) in patients with proximal deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism compared with calf vein thrombosis, and from 1.30 (1.07 to 1.58) to 1.27 (1.06 to 1.51), 1.20 (1.02 to 1.41), and 1.13 (0.95 to 1.36) per doubling D-dimer. Using a dynamic landmark competing risks regression approach, we generated nomograms and a web-based calculator to calculate risk scores and recurrence rates from multiple times after anticoagulation. Risk of recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulation can be predicted from multiple random time points by integrating the patient's sex, location of first VTE, and serial D-dimer measurements.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

The risk assessment of sudden water pollution for river network system under multi-source random emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.

2016-12-01

Sudden water pollution accidents are unavoidable risk events that we must learn to co-exist with. In China's Taihu River Basin, the river flow conditions are complicated with frequently artificial interference. Sudden water pollution accident occurs mainly in the form of a large number of abnormal discharge of wastewater, and has the characteristics with the sudden occurrence, the uncontrollable scope, the uncertainty object and the concentrated distribution of many risk sources. Effective prevention of pollution accidents that may occur is of great significance for the water quality safety management. Bayesian networks can be applied to represent the relationship between pollution sources and river water quality intuitively. Using the time sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, the pollution sources state switching model, water quality model for river network and Bayesian reasoning is integrated together, and the sudden water pollution risk assessment model for river network is developed to quantify the water quality risk under the collective influence of multiple pollution sources. Based on the isotope water transport mechanism, a dynamic tracing model of multiple pollution sources is established, which can describe the relationship between the excessive risk of the system and the multiple risk sources. Finally, the diagnostic reasoning algorithm based on Bayesian network is coupled with the multi-source tracing model, which can identify the contribution of each risk source to the system risk under the complex flow conditions. Taking Taihu Lake water system as the research object, the model is applied to obtain the reasonable results under the three typical years. Studies have shown that the water quality risk at critical sections are influenced by the pollution risk source, the boundary water quality, the hydrological conditions and self -purification capacity, and the multiple pollution sources have obvious effect on water quality risk of the receiving water body. The water quality risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a effective tool for systematically quantifying the random uncertainty in plain river network system, and it also provides the technical support for the decision-making of controlling the sudden water pollution through identification of critical pollution sources.

Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative: health-risk behaviours on nutrition and physical activity in 6-9-year-old schoolchildren.

PubMed

Wijnhoven, Trudy M A; van Raaij, Joop M A; Yngve, Agneta; Sjöberg, Agneta; Kunešová, Marie; Duleva, Vesselka; Petrauskiene, Ausra; Rito, Ana I; Breda, João

2015-12-01

To assess to what extent eight behavioural health risks related to breakfast and food consumption and five behavioural health risks related to physical activity, screen time and sleep duration are present among schoolchildren, and to examine whether health-risk behaviours are associated with obesity. Cross-sectional design as part of the WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (school year 2007/2008). Children's behavioural data were reported by their parents and children's weight and height measured by trained fieldworkers. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses were performed. Primary schools in Bulgaria, Lithuania, Portugal and Sweden; paediatric clinics in the Czech Republic. Nationally representative samples of 6-9-year-olds (n 15 643). All thirteen risk behaviours differed statistically significantly across countries. Highest prevalence estimates of risk behaviours were observed in Bulgaria and lowest in Sweden. Not having breakfast daily and spending screen time ≥2 h/d were clearly positively associated with obesity. The same was true for eating 'foods like pizza, French fries, hamburgers, sausages or meat pies' >3 d/week and playing outside <1 h/d. Surprisingly, other individual unhealthy eating or less favourable physical activity behaviours showed either no or significant negative associations with obesity. A combination of multiple less favourable physical activity behaviours showed positive associations with obesity, whereas multiple unhealthy eating behaviours combined did not lead to higher odds of obesity. Despite a categorization based on international health recommendations, individual associations of the thirteen health-risk behaviours with obesity were not consistent, whereas presence of multiple physical activity-related risk behaviours was clearly associated with higher odds of obesity.

Modest familial risks for multiple sclerosis: a registry-based study of the population of Sweden

PubMed Central

Westerlind, Helga; Ramanujam, Ryan; Uvehag, Daniel; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Boman, Marcus; Bottai, Matteo; Lichtenstein, Paul

2014-01-01

Data on familial recurrence rates of complex diseases such as multiple sclerosis give important hints to aetiological factors such as the importance of genes and environment. By linking national registries, we sought to avoid common limitations of clinic-based studies such as low numbers, poor representation of the population and selection bias. Through the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and a nationwide hospital registry, a total of 28 396 patients with multiple sclerosis were identified. We used the national Multi-Generation Registry to identify first and second degree relatives as well as cousins, and the Swedish Twin Registry to identify twins of patients with multiple sclerosis. Crude and age corrected familial risks were estimated for cases and found to be in the same range as previously published figures. Matched population-based controls were used to calculate relative risks, revealing lower estimates of familial multiple sclerosis risks than previously reported, with a sibling recurrence risk (λs = 7.1; 95% confidence interval: 6.42–7.86). Surprisingly, despite a well-established lower prevalence of multiple sclerosis amongst males, the relative risks were equal among maternal and paternal relations. A previously reported increased risk in maternal relations could thus not be replicated. An observed higher transmission rate from fathers to sons compared with mothers to sons suggested a higher transmission to offspring from the less prevalent sex; therefore, presence of the so-called ‘Carter effect’ could not be excluded. We estimated the heritability of multiple sclerosis using 74 757 twin pairs with known zygosity, of which 315 were affected with multiple sclerosis, and added information from 2.5 million sibling pairs to increase power. The heritability was estimated to be 0.64 (0.36–0.76), whereas the shared environmental component was estimated to be 0.01 (0.00–0.18). In summary, whereas multiple sclerosis is to a great extent an inherited trait, the familial relative risks may be lower than usually reported. PMID:24441172

No Evidence for Synergy Between Human Papillomavirus Genotypes for the Risk of High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions in a Large Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Wentzensen, Nicolas; Nason, Martha; Schiffman, Mark; Dodd, Lori; Hunt, William C.; Wheeler, Cosette M.

2014-01-01

Background. Multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes may be independently or synergistically associated with risk of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs). We evaluated the risk of HSIL in women concomitantly infected with multiple HPV genotypes. Methods. A population-based stratified sample of 59 664 cervical cytology specimens from women residing in New Mexico were evaluated for cytologic abnormalities and HPV genotypes. We calculated the risk of HSIL in women infected with a single HPV genotype and the risk in those infected with multiple HPV genotypes. Results. The highest risk of HSIL was observed for HPV-16 (0.036), followed by HPV-33 (0.028), HPV-58 (0.024), and HPV-18 (0.022). For most types, we observed a greater risk of HSIL in women infected with multiple carcinogenic HPV types. In contrast, the risk of HSIL was similar in women infected with HPV-16 and other types, compared with women infected with HPV-16 only. We observed an increased but plateauing risk of HSIL in women infected with multiple types, compared with those infected with a single type, with risk ratios of 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–1.8), 1.7 (95% CI, 1.3–2.4), and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.83–2.5) for women infected with 2, 3, and ≥4 genotypes, respectively. Conclusions. In the largest population-based study of HPV genotypes and cytologic outcomes so far, we did not see more than additive effects of HPV types on the risk of HSIL in women infected with multiple types. PMID:24179110

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

PubMed

Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

2017-03-01

There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

The incidence of leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma among atomic bomb survivors: 1950 – 2001

PubMed Central

Hsu, Wan-Ling; Preston, Dale L.; Soda, Midori; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Kodama, Kazunori; Kimura, Akiro; Kamada, Nanao; Dohy, Hiroo; Tomonaga, Masao; Iwanaga, Masako; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Cullings, Harry M.; Suyama, Akihiko; Ozasa, Kotaro; Shore, Roy E.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

2013-01-01

A marked increase in leukemia risks was the first and most striking late effect of radiation exposure seen among the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. This paper presents analyses of radiation effects on leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors updated 14 years since the last comprehensive report on these malignancies. These analyses make use of tumor- and leukemia-registry-based incidence data on 113,011 cohort members with 3.6 million person-years of follow-up from late 1950 through the end of 2001. In addition to a detailed analysis of the excess risk for all leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia (neither of which appear to be radiation-related), we present results for the major hematopoietic malignancy types: acute lymphoblastic leukemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, chronic myeloid leukemia, adult T-cell leukemia, Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. Poisson regression methods were used to characterize the shape of the radiation dose response relationship and, to the extent the data allowed, to investigate variation in the excess risks with sex, attained age, exposure age, and time since exposure. In contrast to the previous report that focused on describing excess absolute rates, we considered both excess absolute rate (EAR) and excess relative risk (ERR) models and found that ERR models can often provide equivalent and sometimes more parsimonious descriptions of the excess risk than EAR models. The leukemia results indicated that there was a non-linear dose response for leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia, which varied markedly with time and age at exposure, with much of the evidence for this non-linearity arising from the acute myeloid leukemia risks. Although the leukemia excess risks generally declined with attained age or time since exposure, there was evidence that the radiation-associated excess leukemia risks, especially for acute myeloid leukemia, had persisted throughout the follow-up period out to – 55 years after the bombings. As in earlier analyses, there was a weak suggestion of a radiation dose response for non-Hodgkin lymphoma among men with no indication of such an effect among women. There was no evidence of radiation-associated excess risks for either Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma. PMID:23398354

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for ED visits across all payers, all diseases, and all age groups. Therefore, providers can implement targeted care management strategies to the patient subgroups with similar patterns of clinical histories, driving the delivery of more efficient and effective health care interventions. To the best of our knowledge, this prospectively validated EMR-based, Web-based tool is the first one to allow real-time total population risk assessment for statewide ED visits.

Anthropometric characteristics and ovarian cancer risk and survival.

PubMed

Minlikeeva, Albina N; Moysich, Kirsten B; Mayor, Paul C; Etter, John L; Cannioto, Rikki A; Ness, Roberta B; Starbuck, Kristen; Edwards, Robert P; Segal, Brahm H; Lele, Sashikant; Odunsi, Kunle; Diergaarde, Brenda; Modugno, Francesmary

2018-02-01

Multiple studies have examined the role of anthropometric characteristics in ovarian cancer risk and survival; however, their results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between weight change, height and height change and risk and outcome of ovarian cancer using data from a large population-based case-control study. Data from 699 ovarian cancer cases and 1,802 controls who participated in the HOPE study were included. We used unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, race, number of pregnancies, use of oral contraceptives, and family history of breast or ovarian cancer to examine the associations between self-reported height and weight and height change with ovarian cancer risk. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age and stage were used to examine the association between the exposure variables and overall and progression-free survival among ovarian cancer cases. We observed an increased risk of ovarian cancer mortality and progression for gaining more than 20 pounds between ages 18-30, HR 1.36; 95% CI 1.05-1.76, and HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.04-1.66, respectively. Losing weight and gaining it back multiple times was inversely associated with both ovarian cancer risk, OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.63-0.97 for 1-4 times and OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.54-0.99 for 5-9 times, and mortality, HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.99 for 10-14 times. Finally, being taller during adolescence and adulthood was associated with increased risk of mortality. Taller stature and weight gain over lifetime were not related to ovarian cancer risk. Our results suggest that height and weight and their change over time may influence ovarian cancer risk and survival. These findings suggest that biological mechanisms underlying these associations may be hormone driven and may play an important role in relation to ovarian carcinogenesis and tumor progression.

Differences in time use and activity patterns when adding a second job: implications for health and safety in the United States.

PubMed

Marucci-Wellman, Helen R; Lin, Tin-Chi; Willetts, Joanna L; Brennan, Melanye J; Verma, Santosh K

2014-08-01

We compared work and lifestyle activities for workers who work in 1 job with those who work in multiple jobs during a 1-week period. We used information from the 2003-2011 American Time Use Survey to classify workers into 6 work groups based on whether they were a single (SJH) or multiple (MJH) job holder and whether they worked their primary, other, multiple, or no job on the diary day. The MJHs often worked 2 part-time jobs (20%), long weekly hours (27% worked 60+ hours), and on weekends. The MJHs working multiple jobs on the diary day averaged more than 2 additional work hours (2.25 weekday, 2.75 weekend day; P < .05), odd hours (more often between 5 pm and 7 am), with more work travel time (10 minutes weekday, 9 minutes weekend day; P < .05) and less sleep (-45 minutes weekday, -62 minutes weekend day; P < .05) and time for other household (P < .05) and leisure (P < .05) activities than SJHs. Because of long work hours, long daily commutes, multiple shifts, and less sleep and leisure time, MJHs may be at heightened risk of fatigue and injury.

Differences in Time Use and Activity Patterns When Adding a Second Job: Implications for Health and Safety in the United States

PubMed Central

Willetts, Joanna L.; Brennan, Melanye J.; Verma, Santosh K.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We compared work and lifestyle activities for workers who work in 1 job with those who work in multiple jobs during a 1-week period. Methods. We used information from the 2003–2011 American Time Use Survey to classify workers into 6 work groups based on whether they were a single (SJH) or multiple (MJH) job holder and whether they worked their primary, other, multiple, or no job on the diary day. Results. The MJHs often worked 2 part-time jobs (20%), long weekly hours (27% worked 60+ hours), and on weekends. The MJHs working multiple jobs on the diary day averaged more than 2 additional work hours (2.25 weekday, 2.75 weekend day; P < .05), odd hours (more often between 5 pm and 7 am), with more work travel time (10 minutes weekday, 9 minutes weekend day; P < .05) and less sleep (–45 minutes weekday, −62 minutes weekend day; P < .05) and time for other household (P < .05) and leisure (P < .05) activities than SJHs. Conclusions. Because of long work hours, long daily commutes, multiple shifts, and less sleep and leisure time, MJHs may be at heightened risk of fatigue and injury. PMID:24922135

Exposure to Pre- and Perinatal Risk Factors Partially Explains Mean Differences in Self-Regulation between Races.

PubMed

Barnes, J C; Boutwell, Brian B; Miller, J Mitchell; DeShay, Rashaan A; Beaver, Kevin M; White, Norman

2016-01-01

To examine whether differential exposure to pre- and perinatal risk factors explained differences in levels of self-regulation between children of different races (White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Other). Multiple regression models based on data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (n ≈ 9,850) were used to analyze the impact of pre- and perinatal risk factors on the development of self-regulation at age 2 years. Racial differences in levels of self-regulation were observed. Racial differences were also observed for 9 of the 12 pre-/perinatal risk factors. Multiple regression analyses revealed that a portion of the racial differences in self-regulation was explained by differential exposure to several of the pre-/perinatal risk factors. Specifically, maternal age at childbirth, gestational timing, and the family's socioeconomic status were significantly related to the child's level of self-regulation. These factors accounted for a statistically significant portion of the racial differences observed in self-regulation. The findings indicate racial differences in self-regulation may be, at least partially, explained by racial differences in exposure to pre- and perinatal risk factors.

Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for example, relocating levees, improving flood warning systems, or boosting overall economic resilience). The assessment includes the locations and numbers of people at risk, as well as the locations and value of buildings, roads and railways, and crops at risk. An accompanying atlas includes easy-to-use risk maps and tables for the Ganges basins.

A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

Big data and high-performance analytics in structural health monitoring for bridge management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alampalli, Sharada; Alampalli, Sandeep; Ettouney, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a vital tool for effective bridge management. Combining large data sets from multiple sources to create a data-driven decision-making framework is crucial for the success of SHM. This paper presents a big data analytics framework that combines multiple data sets correlated with functional relatedness to convert data into actionable information that empowers risk-based decision-making. The integrated data environment incorporates near real-time streams of semi-structured data from remote sensors, historical visual inspection data, and observations from structural analysis models to monitor, assess, and manage risks associated with the aging bridge inventories. Accelerated processing of dataset is made possible by four technologies: cloud computing, relational database processing, support from NOSQL database, and in-memory analytics. The framework is being validated on a railroad corridor that can be subjected to multiple hazards. The framework enables to compute reliability indices for critical bridge components and individual bridge spans. In addition, framework includes a risk-based decision-making process that enumerate costs and consequences of poor bridge performance at span- and network-levels when rail networks are exposed to natural hazard events such as floods and earthquakes. Big data and high-performance analytics enable insights to assist bridge owners to address problems faster.

Uptake, Results, and Outcomes of Germline Multiple-Gene Sequencing After Diagnosis of Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Kurian, Allison W; Ward, Kevin C; Hamilton, Ann S; Deapen, Dennis M; Abrahamse, Paul; Bondarenko, Irina; Li, Yun; Hawley, Sarah T; Morrow, Monica; Jagsi, Reshma; Katz, Steven J

2018-05-10

Low-cost sequencing of multiple genes is increasingly available for cancer risk assessment. Little is known about uptake or outcomes of multiple-gene sequencing after breast cancer diagnosis in community practice. To examine the effect of multiple-gene sequencing on the experience and treatment outcomes for patients with breast cancer. For this population-based retrospective cohort study, patients with breast cancer diagnosed from January 2013 to December 2015 and accrued from SEER registries across Georgia and in Los Angeles, California, were surveyed (n = 5080, response rate = 70%). Responses were merged with SEER data and results of clinical genetic tests, either BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) sequencing only or including additional other genes (multiple-gene sequencing), provided by 4 laboratories. Type of testing (multiple-gene sequencing vs BRCA1/2-only sequencing), test results (negative, variant of unknown significance, or pathogenic variant), patient experiences with testing (timing of testing, who discussed results), and treatment (strength of patient consideration of, and surgeon recommendation for, prophylactic mastectomy), and prophylactic mastectomy receipt. We defined a patient subgroup with higher pretest risk of carrying a pathogenic variant according to practice guidelines. Among 5026 patients (mean [SD] age, 59.9 [10.7]), 1316 (26.2%) were linked to genetic results from any laboratory. Multiple-gene sequencing increasingly replaced BRCA1/2-only testing over time: in 2013, the rate of multiple-gene sequencing was 25.6% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 74.4%;in 2015 the rate of multiple-gene sequencing was 66.5% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 33.5%. Multiple-gene sequencing was more often ordered by genetic counselors (multiple-gene sequencing, 25.5% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 15.3%) and delayed until after surgery (multiple-gene sequencing, 32.5% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 19.9%). Multiple-gene sequencing substantially increased rate of detection of any pathogenic variant (multiple-gene sequencing: higher-risk patients, 12%; average-risk patients, 4.2% and BRCA1/2-only testing: higher-risk patients, 7.8%; average-risk patients, 2.2%) and variants of uncertain significance, especially in minorities (multiple-gene sequencing: white patients, 23.7%; black patients, 44.5%; and Asian patients, 50.9% and BRCA1/2-only testing: white patients, 2.2%; black patients, 5.6%; and Asian patients, 0%). Multiple-gene sequencing was not associated with an increase in the rate of prophylactic mastectomy use, which was highest with pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 (BRCA1/2, 79.0%; other pathogenic variant, 37.6%; variant of uncertain significance, 30.2%; negative, 35.3%). Multiple-gene sequencing rapidly replaced BRCA1/2-only testing for patients with breast cancer in the community and enabled 2-fold higher detection of clinically relevant pathogenic variants without an associated increase in prophylactic mastectomy. However, important targets for improvement in the clinical utility of multiple-gene sequencing include postsurgical delay and racial/ethnic disparity in variants of uncertain significance.

Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

2015-01-01

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

HbA1c Predicts Time to Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes in Children at Risk.

PubMed

Helminen, Olli; Aspholm, Susanna; Pokka, Tytti; Hautakangas, Milla-Riikka; Haatanen, Nora; Lempainen, Johanna; Ilonen, Jorma; Simell, Olli; Knip, Mikael; Veijola, Riitta

2015-05-01

Prediction of type 1 diabetes is based on the detection of multiple islet autoantibodies in subjects who are at increased genetic risk. Prediction of the timing of diagnosis is challenging, however. We assessed the utility of HbA1c levels in predicting the clinical disease in genetically predisposed children with multiple autoantibodies. Cord blood samples from 168,055 newborn infants were screened for class II HLA genotypes in Finland, and 14,876 children with increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes were invited to participate in regular follow-ups, including screening for diabetes-associated autoantibodies. When two or more autoantibodies were detected, HbA1c levels were analyzed at each visit. During follow-up, multiple (two or more) autoantibodies developed in 466 children; type 1 diabetes was diagnosed in 201 of these children (43%, progressors), while 265 children remained disease free (nonprogressors) by December 2011. A 10% increase in HbA1c levels in samples obtained 3-12 months apart predicted the diagnosis of clinical disease (hazard ratio [HR] 5.7 [95% CI 4.1-7.9]) after a median time of 1.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 0.6-3.1 years) from the observed rise of HbA1c. If the HbA1c level was ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) in two consecutive samples, the median time to diagnosis was 0.9 years (IQR 0.3-1.5, HR 11.9 [95% CI 8.8-16.0]). In conclusion, HbA1c is a useful biochemical marker when predicting the time to diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with multiple autoantibodies. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Prognostic Classification Factors Associated With Development of Multiple Autoantibodies, Dysglycemia, and Type 1 Diabetes—A Recursive Partitioning Analysis

PubMed Central

Krischer, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To define prognostic classification factors associated with the progression from single to multiple autoantibodies, multiple autoantibodies to dysglycemia, and dysglycemia to type 1 diabetes onset in relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Three distinct cohorts of subjects from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study were investigated separately. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to determine the risk classes. Clinical characteristics, including genotype, antibody titers, and metabolic markers were analyzed. RESULTS Age and GAD65 autoantibody (GAD65Ab) titers defined three risk classes for progression from single to multiple autoantibodies. The 5-year risk was 11% for those subjects >16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, 29% for those ≤16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, and 45% for those subjects with high GAD65Ab titers regardless of age. Progression to dysglycemia was associated with islet antigen 2 Ab titers, and 2-h glucose and fasting C-peptide levels. The 5-year risk is 28%, 39%, and 51% for respective risk classes defined by the three predictors. Progression to type 1 diabetes was associated with the number of positive autoantibodies, peak C-peptide level, HbA1c level, and age. Four risk classes defined by RPA had a 5-year risk of 9%, 33%, 62%, and 80%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The use of RPA offered a new classification approach that could predict the timing of transitions from one preclinical stage to the next in the development of type 1 diabetes. Using these RPA classes, new prevention techniques can be tailored based on the individual prognostic risk characteristics at different preclinical stages. PMID:27208341

An ecological momentary intervention for smoking cessation: The associations of just-in-time, tailored messages with lapse risk factors.

PubMed

Hébert, Emily T; Stevens, Elise M; Frank, Summer G; Kendzor, Darla E; Wetter, David W; Zvolensky, Michael J; Buckner, Julia D; Businelle, Michael S

2018-03-01

Smartphone apps can provide real-time, tailored interventions for smoking cessation. The current study examines the effectiveness of a smartphone-based smoking cessation application that assessed risk for imminent smoking lapse multiple times per day and provided messages tailored to current smoking lapse risk and specific lapse triggers. Participants (N=59) recruited from a safety-net hospital smoking cessation clinic completed phone-based ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) 5 times/day for 3 consecutive weeks (1week pre-quit, 2weeks post-quit). Risk for smoking lapse was estimated in real-time using a novel weighted lapse risk estimator. With each EMA, participants received messages tailored to current level of risk for imminent smoking lapse and self-reported presence of smoking urge, stress, cigarette availability, and motivation to quit. Generalized linear mixed model analyses determined whether messages tailored to specific lapse risk factors were associated with greater reductions in these triggers than messages not tailored to specific triggers. Overall, messages tailored to smoking urge, cigarette availability, or stress corresponded with greater reductions in those triggers than messages that were not tailored to specific triggers (p's=0.02 to <0.001). Although messages tailored to stress were associated with greater reductions in stress than messages not tailored to stress, the association was non-significant (p=0.892) when only moments of high stress were included in the analysis. Mobile technology can be used to conduct real-time smoking lapse risk assessment and provide tailored treatment content. Findings provide initial evidence that tailored content may impact users' urge to smoke, stress, and cigarette availability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

2016-02-01

The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real-time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

Coffee and Green Tea Consumption and Subsequent Risk of Malignant Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma in Japan: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PubMed

Ugai, Tomotaka; Matsuo, Keitaro; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamaji, Taiki; Shimazu, Taichi; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Kanda, Yoshinobu; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-08-01

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of coffee and green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma in a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan. Methods: In this analysis, a total of 95,807 Japanese subjects (45,937 men and 49,870 women; ages 40-69 years at baseline) of the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study who completed a questionnaire about their coffee and green tea consumption were followed up until December 31, 2012, for an average of 18 years. HRs and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using a Cox regression model adjusted for potential confounders as a measure of association between the risk of malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma associated with coffee and green tea consumption at baseline. Results: During the follow-up period, a total of 411 malignant lymphoma cases and 138 multiple myeloma cases were identified. Overall, our findings showed no significant association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma for both sexes. Conclusions: In this study, we observed no significant association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma. Impact: Our results do not support an association between coffee or green tea consumption and the risk of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(8); 1352-6. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life: Protocol for a community-based randomised controlled trial of a multi-modal exercise and osteoporosis education program for older adults at risk of falls and fractures

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Osteoporosis affects over 220 million people worldwide, and currently there is no ‘cure’ for the disease. Thus, there is a need to develop evidence-based, safe and acceptable prevention strategies at the population level that target multiple risk factors for fragility fractures to reduce the health and economic burden of the condition. Methods/design The Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life study will investigate the effectiveness and feasibility of a multi-component targeted exercise, osteoporosis education/awareness and behavioural change program for improving bone health and muscle function and reducing falls risk in community-dwelling older adults at an increased risk of fracture. Men and women aged ≥60 years will participate in an 18-month randomised controlled trial comprising a 12-month structured and supervised community-based program and a 6-month ‘research to practise’ translational phase. Participants will be randomly assigned to either the Osteo-cise intervention or a self-management control group. The intervention will comprise a multi-modal exercise program incorporating high velocity progressive resistance training, moderate impact weight-bearing exercise and high challenging balance exercises performed three times weekly at local community-based fitness centres. A behavioural change program will be used to enhance exercise adoption and adherence to the program. Community-based osteoporosis education seminars will be conducted to improve participant knowledge and understanding of the risk factors and preventative measures for osteoporosis, falls and fractures. The primary outcomes measures, to be collected at baseline, 6, 12, and 18 months, will include DXA-derived hip and spine bone mineral density measurements and functional muscle power (timed stair-climb test). Secondary outcomes measures include: MRI-assessed distal femur and proximal tibia trabecular bone micro-architecture, lower limb and back maximal muscle strength, balance and function (four square step test, functional reach test, timed up-and-go test and 30-second sit-to-stand), falls incidence and health-related quality of life. Cost-effectiveness will also be assessed. Discussion The findings from the Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life study will provide new information on the efficacy of a targeted multi-modal community-based exercise program incorporating high velocity resistance training, together with an osteoporosis education and behavioural change program for improving multiple risk factors for falls and fracture in older adults at risk of fragility fracture. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry reference ACTRN12609000100291 PMID:22640372

Familial risks of breast and prostate cancers: does the definition of the at risk period matter?

PubMed

Brandt, Andreas; Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

2010-03-01

'Being at familial risk' may have different connotations in studies on familial risk of cancer. The register-based definition of a family history considers individuals with an affected relative at familial risk independently of the family member's diagnostic time. Alternatively, the individuals are classified to be at familial risk only after the diagnosis date of their relative, relevant to clinical counselling and screening situations. The aim of this study was to compare familial breast and prostate cancer risks according to the two definitions. The nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database with information on cancers from 1958 to 2006 was used to calculate the hazard ratio of breast and prostate cancers according to family history using Cox regression. Family history was defined considering the number and type of affected relatives and the relative's diagnostic age, respectively. Individuals were considered at familial risk from their entry to the study or, alternatively, from the diagnostic time of the relative. Hazard ratios were equal whether individuals were considered at risk independent of the relative's diagnostic date or only after the relative's diagnostic date. These results indicate that studies on familial breast or prostate cancer risk which do not take the relative's diagnosis date into account are applicable to screening and clinical counselling situations. The estimates according to the register-based definition are based on larger numbers of patients, which may be crucial for analysis of small groups such as families of multiple cases. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends and risk factors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Eastern Uganda (1982-2011): a cross-sectional, population-based study.

PubMed

Kujala, Sanni; Waiswa, Peter; Kadobera, Daniel; Akuze, Joseph; Pariyo, George; Hanson, Claudia

2017-01-01

To identify mortality trends and risk factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths 1982-2011. Population-based cross-sectional study based on reported pregnancy history in Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Uganda. A pregnancy history survey was conducted among women aged 15-49 years living in the HDSS during May-July 2011 (n = 10 540). Time trends were analysed with cubic splines and linear regression. Potential risk factors were examined with multilevel logistic regression with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 34 073 births from 1982 to 2011 were analysed. The annual rate of decrease was 0.9% for stillbirths and 1.8% for neonatal mortality. Stillbirths were associated with several risk factors: multiple births (AOR 2.57, CI 1.66-3.99), previous adverse outcome (AOR 6.16, CI 4.26-8.88) and grand multiparity among 35- to 49-year-olds (AOR 1.97, CI 1.32-2.89). Neonatal deaths were associated with multiple births (AOR 6.16, CI 4.80-7.92) and advanced maternal age linked with parity of 1-4 (AOR 2.34, CI 1.28-4.25) and grand multiparity (AOR 1.44, CI 1.09-1.90). Education, marital status and household wealth were not associated with the outcomes. The slow decline in mortality rates and easily identifiable risk factors calls for improving quality of care at birth and a rethinking of how to address obstetric risks, potentially a revival of the risk approach in antenatal care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing causal mechanistic interactions: a peril ratio index of synergy based on multiplicativity.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung

2013-01-01

The assessments of interactions in epidemiology have traditionally been based on risk-ratio, odds-ratio or rate-ratio multiplicativity. However, many epidemiologists fail to recognize that this is mainly for statistical conveniences and often will misinterpret a statistically significant interaction as a genuine mechanistic interaction. The author adopts an alternative metric system for risk, the 'peril'. A peril is an exponentiated cumulative rate, or simply, the inverse of a survival (risk complement) or one plus an odds. The author proposes a new index based on multiplicativity of peril ratios, the 'peril ratio index of synergy based on multiplicativity' (PRISM). Under the assumption of no redundancy, PRISM can be used to assess synergisms in sufficient cause sense, i.e., causal co-actions or causal mechanistic interactions. It has a less stringent threshold to detect a synergy as compared to a previous index of 'relative excess risk due to interaction'. Using the new PRISM criterion, many situations in which there is not evidence of interaction judged by the traditional indices are in fact corresponding to bona fide positive or negative synergisms.

Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

2015-07-01

The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable shoreline risk levels from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - Portuguese Continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time. Shoreline risks can be computed in real-time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns, "hot spots" or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.

Exposures to synthetic estrogens at different times during the life, and their effect on breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Hilakivi-Clarke, Leena; de Assis, Sonia; Warri, Anni

2013-03-01

Women are using estrogens for many purposes, such as to prevent pregnancy or miscarriage, or to treat menopausal symptoms. Estrogens also have been used to treat breast cancer which seems puzzling, since there is convincing evidence to support a link between high lifetime estrogen exposure and increased breast cancer risk. In this review, we discuss the findings that maternal exposure to the synthetic estrogen diethylstilbestrol during pregnancy increases breast cancer risk in both exposed mothers and their daughters. In addition, we review data regarding the use of estrogens in oral contraceptives and as postmenopausal hormone therapy and discuss the opposing effects on breast cancer risk based upon timing of exposure. We place particular emphasis on studies investigating how maternal estrogenic exposures during pregnancy increase breast cancer risk among daughters. New data suggest that these exposures induce epigenetic modifications in the mammary gland and germ cells, thereby causing an inheritable increase in breast cancer risk for multiple generations.

Exposures to Synthetic Estrogens at Different Times During the Life, and Their Effect on Breast Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

de Assis, Sonia; Warri, Anni

2013-01-01

Women are using estrogens for many purposes, such as to prevent pregnancy or miscarriage, or to treat menopausal symptoms. Estrogens also have been used to treat breast cancer which seems puzzling, since there is convincing evidence to support a link between high lifetime estrogen exposure and increased breast cancer risk. In this review, we discuss the findings that maternal exposure to the synthetic estrogen diethylstilbestrol during pregnancy increases breast cancer risk in both exposed mothers and their daughters. In addition, we review data regarding the use of estrogens in oral contraceptives and as postmenopausal hormone therapy and discuss the opposing effects on breast cancer risk based upon timing of exposure. We place particular emphasis on studies investigating how maternal estrogenic exposures during pregnancy increase breast cancer risk among daughters. New data suggest that these exposures induce epigenetic modifications in the mammary gland and germ cells, thereby causing an inheritable increase in breast cancer risk for multiple generations. PMID:23392570

Momentary assessment of PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in male OEF/OIF/OND Veterans.

PubMed

Black, Anne C; Cooney, Ned L; Justice, Amy C; Fiellin, Lynn E; Pietrzak, Robert H; Lazar, Christina M; Rosen, Marc I

2016-01-15

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Veterans is associated with increased sexual risk behaviors, but the nature of this association is not well understood. Typical PTSD measurement deriving a summary estimate of symptom severity over a period of time precludes inferences about symptom variability, and whether momentary changes in symptom severity predict risk behavior. We assessed the feasibility of measuring daily PTSD symptoms, substance use, and high-risk sexual behavior in Veterans using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Feasibility indicators were survey completion, PTSD symptom variability, and variability in rates of substance use and sexual risk behavior. Nine male Veterans completed web-based questionnaires by cell phone three times per day for 28 days. Median within-day survey completion rates maintained near 90%, and PTSD symptoms showed high within-person variability, ranging up to 59 points on the 80-point scale. Six Veterans reported alcohol or substance use, and substance users reported use of more than one drug. Eight Veterans reported 1 to 28 high-risk sexual events. Heightened PTSD-related negative affect and externalizing behaviors preceded high-risk sexual events. Greater PTSD symptom instability was associated with having multiple sexual partners in the 28-day period. These results are preliminary, given this small sample size, and multiple comparisons, and should be verified with larger Veteran samples. Results support the feasibility and utility of using of EMA to better understand the relationship between PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in Veterans. Specific antecedent-risk behavior patterns provide promise for focused clinical interventions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Infectious mononucleosis and multiple sclerosis - Updated review on associated risk.

PubMed

Sheik-Ali, Sharaf

2017-05-01

There has been substantial evidence accumulating on the role of infectious mononucleosis (IM) and the subsequent risk of obtaining Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Up to date studies not previously explored were reviewed by the author to further clarify the association. Medline and Web of Science were searched with no time constraints for articles exploring an association between Multiple Sclerosis and Infectious Mononucleosis. 24 articles were found, totalling 1063 cases and 13,227 cohort/controls. 23/24 (96%) articles reported a significant association of Infectious Mononucleosis on the risk of subsequent multiple sclerosis. Overall, new literature on IM and risk of MS categorically supports the association. Future work should focus on other risk factors such as age and gender on IM and subsequent risk of MS. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for retinal breaks in patients with symptom of floaters.

PubMed

Singalavanija, Apichart; Amornrattanapan, Chutiwan; Nitiruangjarus, Kanjanee; Tongsai, Sasima

2010-06-01

To identify the risk factors of retinal breaks in patients with the symptom of floaters, and to determine the association between those risk factors and retinal breaks. A retrospective analytic study of 184 patients (55 males and 129 females) that included 220 eyes was conducted. Patient information such as age, symptoms (multiple floaters, flashing), duration of symptom, refractive error, history of cataract surgery, family history of retinal detachment, and complete eye examination were recorded. The patients were divided into two groups, the first group (control group) had symptoms of floaters and no retinal breaks, the second group (retinal breaks group) had symptoms of floaters with retinal breaks. Chi-square test, and the multiple logistic regression were used for statistical analysis. Two hundred twenty eyes, 175 eyes of the control group and 45 eyes of the retinal breaks group were examined and included in this study. The multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that patients with multiple floaters, and floaters and flashing increased the risk of retinal breaks to 5.8 and 4.3 times, respectively, when compared to patients with single floater or floaters alone. Lattice degeneration increased the risk of retinal breaks to 5.9 times when compared to eyes that did not have lattice degeneration. Multiple floaters, flashing and lattice degeneration are risk factors of retinal breaks in patients with symptoms of floaters. Therefore, it is important for the ophthalmologists to be aware of these risk factors and the patients at risk should have follow-up examinations.

Portfolio Management Best Practices: Observations from Industry

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-15

Andreas and Ortwin Renn , “A New Approach to Risk Evaluation and Management: Risk-Based, Precaution-Based, and Discourse-Based Strategies”, Risk...Research and Development, RAND Corporation (2004). Stummer, Christian , and Kurt Heidenberger, “Interactive R&D Portfolio Selection Considering Multiple

Development of Multiple Primary Cancers in Lung Cancer Patients: Appalachian Versus Non-Appalachian Populations of Kentucky.

PubMed

Pravosud, Vira; Huang, Bin; Tucker, Thomas; Vanderford, Nathan L

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether patients with lung cancer in Appalachian Kentucky are more likely to develop multiple primary cancers than patients in non-Appalachian Kentucky. Additional analyses were conducted to identify other factors that may be associated with an increased hazard of developing multiple primary cancers in patients with lung cancer. The data for this retrospective, population-based cohort study of 26,456 primary lung cancer patients were drawn from the Kentucky Cancer Registry. For inclusion in the study, patients must have been diagnosed between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013 and they must either have continually resided in Appalachian Kentucky or continually resided in non-Appalachian Kentucky. Cases were excluded if the patient was diagnosed as having additional primary cancers within 3 months of the initial diagnosis of primary lung cancer. The medical records for each case were examined to determine whether the patient was subsequently diagnosed as having additional primary cancers. The Cox proportional hazards model was then used to assess whether there was an association between the region in which the patients live and the likelihood of developing multiple primary cancers. Time to event was considered as the time from diagnosis to either death or development of a second primary cancer. The results presented here indicate that the risk of developing multiple primary cancers is the same for patients with lung cancer throughout Kentucky (hazard ratio [HR] 1.002, P = 0.9713). We found no evidence for a greater hazard in patients from Appalachia; however, additional analyses revealed several high-risk groups. Male patients and older patients had a significantly greater hazard of developing multiple primary cancers (HR 1.169, P = 0.012 and 1.015, P = 0.0001, respectively). In addition, patients who underwent surgery and those who were diagnosed initially as having an earlier stage of cancer also were more likely to develop multiple primary cancers (HR 1.446, P = 0.0003 and 0.684, P = 0.0015, respectively). This is a negative study. Patients with primary lung cancer living in Appalachian Kentucky are not at a greater risk of developing multiple primary cancers than those residing in non-Appalachian Kentucky. High-risk groups identified in this study are male patients and older patients. The increased hazard seen in patients who underwent surgery or those who were diagnosed as having earlier stages of lung cancer are likely an artifact of these patients living longer and, therefore, having more time to develop additional primary cancers.

Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk Based on Multiple Longitudinal Biomarkers

PubMed Central

Yang, Lili; Yu, Menggang; Gao, Sujuan

2016-01-01

In the last decade, few topics in the area of cardiovascular disease (CVD) research have received as much attention as risk prediction. One of the well documented risk factors for CVD is high blood pressure (BP). Traditional CVD risk prediction models consider BP levels measured at a single time and such models form the basis for current clinical guidelines for CVD prevention. However, in clinical practice, BP levels are often observed and recorded in a longitudinal fashion. Information on BP trajectories can be powerful predictors for CVD events. We consider joint modeling of time to coronary artery disease and individual longitudinal measures of systolic and diastolic BPs in a primary care cohort with up to 20 years of follow-up. We applied novel prediction metrics to assess the predictive performance of joint models. Predictive performances of proposed joint models and other models were assessed via simulations and illustrated using the primary care cohort. PMID:26439685

Adaptation of a Counseling Intervention to Address Multiple Cancer Risk Factors among Overweight/Obese Latino Smokers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castro, Yessenia; Fernández, Maria E.; Strong, Larkin L.; Stewart, Diana W.; Krasny, Sarah; Hernandez Robles, Eden; Heredia, Natalia; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Eakin, Elizabeth; Resnicow, Ken; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Wetter, David W.

2015-01-01

More than 60% of cancer-related deaths in the United States are attributable to tobacco use, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity, and these risk factors tend to cluster together. Thus, strategies for cancer risk reduction would benefit from addressing multiple health risk behaviors. We adapted an evidence-based intervention grounded in social…

Multiple Primary Cancer Monograph

Cancer.gov

To identify groups of cancer survivors that are at increased risk for multiple primary cancers, investigators led an effort to provide the first comprehensive population-based analysis of the risk of subsequent cancer in the U.S., resulting in a monograph.

Managing Disease Risks from Trade: Strategic Behavior with Many Choices and Price Effects.

PubMed

Chitchumnong, Piyayut; Horan, Richard D

2018-03-16

An individual's infectious disease risks, and hence the individual's incentives for risk mitigation, may be influenced by others' risk management choices. If so, then there will be strategic interactions among individuals, whereby each makes his or her own risk management decisions based, at least in part, on the expected decisions of others. Prior work has shown that multiple equilibria could arise in this setting, with one equilibrium being a coordination failure in which individuals make too few investments in protection. However, these results are largely based on simplified models involving a single management choice and fixed prices that may influence risk management incentives. Relaxing these assumptions, we find strategic interactions influence, and are influenced by, choices involving multiple management options and market price effects. In particular, we find these features can reduce or eliminate concerns about multiple equilibria and coordination failure. This has important policy implications relative to simpler models.

In vitro fertilization (IVF) versus gonadotropins followed by IVF as treatment for primary infertility: a cost-based decision analysis.

PubMed

Kansal-Kalra, Suleena; Milad, Magdy P; Grobman, William A

2005-09-01

To compare the economic consequences of proceeding directly to IVF to those of proceeding with gonadotropins followed by IVF in patients <35 years of age with unexplained infertility. A decision-tree model. The model incorporated the cost and success of each infertility regimen as well as the pregnancy-associated costs of singleton or multiple gestations and the risk and cost of cerebral palsy. Cost per live birth. Both treatment arms resulted in a >80% chance of birth. The gonadotropin arm was over four times more likely to result in a high-order multiple pregnancy (HOMP). Despite this, when the base case estimates were utilized, immediate IVF emerged as more costly per live birth. In sensitivity analysis, immediate IVF became less costly per live birth when IVF was more likely to achieve birth (55.1%) or cheaper (11,432 dollars) than our base case assumptions. After considering the risk and cost of HOMP, immediate IVF is more costly per live birth than a trial of gonadotropins prior to IVF.

Tools to Assess Community-Based Cumulative Risk and Exposures

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple agents and stressors can interact in a given community to adversely affect human and ecological conditions. A cumulative risk assessment (CRA) analyzes, characterizes, and potentially quantifies the effects from multiple stressors, which include chemical agents (for exam...

IMPACT OF SCHOOL-BASED HIV PREVENTION PROGRAM IN POST-CONFLICT LIBERIA

PubMed Central

Atwood, Katharine A.; Kennedy, Stephen B.; Shamblen, Steve; Tegli, Jemee; Garber, Salome; Fahnbulleh, Pearl W.; Korvah, Prince M.; Kolubah, Moses; Mulbah-Kamara, Comfort; Fulton, Shannon

2013-01-01

This paper presents findings of a feasibility study to adapt and evaluate the impact of an evidence-based HIV prevention intervention on sexual risk behaviors of in-school 6th grade youth in post-conflict Liberia (n = 812). The study used an attention-matched, group randomized controlled trial. Four matched pairs of elementary/middle schools in Monrovia, Liberia, were randomly assigned to either an adapted eight-module HIV prevention or a general health curriculum. Three- and nine-month impacts of the intervention on sexual risk behaviors and on mediating variables are presented. The intervention significantly impacted protective peer norms and positive condom attitudes and increased frequency of condom use at the nine-month follow-up. The intervention did not impact sexual initiation or multiple sex partnerships. Future intervention research should address the salient pressures that are unique to post-conflict settings and include longer follow-up time periods and smaller class sizes to meaningfully impact sexual initiation and multiple sex partnerships. PMID:22339146

Trade-space Analysis for Constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Moigne, J.; Dabney, P.; de Weck, O. L.; Foreman, V.; Grogan, P.; Holland, M. P.; Hughes, S. P.; Nag, S.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: "How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best cost/risk value?" The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time. This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit & Coverage, Reduction & Metrics, and Cost& Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance. TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

Stereoselective Inhibition of CYP2C19 and CYP3A4 by Fluoxetine and Its Metabolite: Implications for Risk Assessment of Multiple Time-Dependent Inhibitor Systems

PubMed Central

Lutz, Justin D.; VandenBrink, Brooke M.; Babu, Katipudi N.; Nelson, Wendel L.; Kunze, Kent L.

2013-01-01

Recent guidance on drug-drug interaction (DDI) testing recommends evaluation of circulating metabolites. However, there is little consensus on how to quantitatively predict and/or assess the risk of in vivo DDIs by multiple time-dependent inhibitors (TDIs) including metabolites from in vitro data. Fluoxetine was chosen as the model drug to evaluate the role of TDI metabolites in DDI prediction because it is a TDI of both CYP3A4 and CYP2C19 with a circulating N-dealkylated inhibitory metabolite, norfluoxetine. In pooled human liver microsomes, both enantiomers of fluoxetine and norfluoxetine were TDIs of CYP2C19, (S)-norfluoxetine was the most potent inhibitor with time-dependent inhibition affinity constant (KI) of 7 μM, and apparent maximum time-dependent inhibition rate (kinact,app) of 0.059 min−1. Only (S)-fluoxetine and (R)-norfluoxetine were TDIs of CYP3A4, with (R)-norfluoxetine being the most potent (KI = 8 μM, and kinact,app = 0.011 min−1). Based on in-vitro-to-in-vivo predictions, (S)-norfluoxetine plays the most important role in in vivo CYP2C19 DDIs, whereas (R)-norfluoxetine is most important in CYP3A4 DDIs. Comparison of two multiple TDI prediction models demonstrated significant differences between them in in-vitro-to-in-vitro predictions but not in in-vitro-to-in-vivo predictions. Inclusion of all four inhibitors predicted an in vivo decrease in CYP2C19 (95%) and CYP3A4 (60–62%) activity. The results of this study suggest that adequate worst-case risk assessment for in vivo DDIs by multiple TDI systems can be achieved by incorporating time-dependent inhibition by both parent and metabolite via simple addition of the in vivo time-dependent inhibition rate/cytochrome P450 degradation rate constant (λ/kdeg) values, but quantitative DDI predictions will require a more thorough understanding of TDI mechanisms. PMID:23785064

Joint Associations of Diet, Lifestyle, and Genes with Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Meyers, Kristin J; Liu, Zhe; Millen, Amy E; Iyengar, Sudha K; Blodi, Barbara A; Johnson, Elizabeth; Snodderly, D Max; Klein, Michael L; Gehrs, Karen M; Tinker, Lesley; Sarto, Gloria E; Robinson, Jennifer; Wallace, Robert B; Mares, Julie A

2015-11-01

Unhealthy lifestyles have been associated with increased odds for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Whether this association is modified by genetic risk for AMD is unknown and was investigated. Interactions between healthy lifestyles AMD risk genotypes were studied in relation to the prevalence of AMD, assessed 6 years later. Women 50 to 79 years of age in the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study with exposure and AMD data (n=1663). Healthy lifestyle scores (0-6 points) were assigned based on Healthy Eating Index scores, physical activity (metabolic equivalent of task hours/week), and smoking pack years assessed in 1994 and 1998. Genetic risk was based on Y402H in complement factor H (CFH) and A69S in age-related maculopathy susceptibility locus 2 (ARMS2). Additive and multiplicative interactions in odds ratios were assessed using the synergy index and a multiplicative interaction term, respectively. AMD presence and severity were assessed from grading of stereoscopic fundus photographs taken in 2001-2004. AMD was present in 337 women, 91% of whom had early AMD. The odds of AMD were 3.3 times greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-6.1) in women with both low healthy lifestyle score (0-2) and high-risk CFH genotype (CC), relative to those who had low genetic risk (TT) and high healthy lifestyle scores (4-6). There were no significant additive (synergy index [SI], 1.08; 95% CI, 0.70-1.67) or multiplicative (Pinteraction=0.94) interactions in the full sample. However, when limiting the sample to women with stable diets before AMD assessment (n=728) the odds for AMD associated with low healthy lifestyle scores and high-risk CFH genotype were strengthened (odds ratio, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.8-11.6) and the synergy index was significant (SI, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05-1.70). Adjusting for dietary lutein and zeaxanthin attenuated, and therefore partially explained, the joint association. There were no significant additive or multiplicative interactions for ARMS2 and lifestyle score. Having unhealthy lifestyles and 2 CFH risk alleles increased AMD risk (primarily in the early stages), in an or additive or greater (synergistic) manner. However, unhealthy lifestyles increased AMD risk regardless of AMD risk genotype. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Serum-free light-chain analysis in diagnosis and management of multiple myeloma and related conditions.

PubMed

Milani, Paolo; Palladini, Giovanni; Merlini, Giampaolo

2016-01-01

The introduction of the serum-free light-chain (S-FLC) assay has been a breakthrough in the diagnosis and management of plasma cell dyscrasias, particularly monoclonal light-chain diseases. The first method, proposed in 2001, quantifies serum-free light-chains using polyclonal antibodies. More recently, assays based on monoclonal antibodies have entered into clinical practice. S-FLC measurement plays a central role in the screening for multiple myeloma and related conditions, in association with electrophoretic techniques. Analysis of S-FLC is essential in assessing the risk of progression of precursor diseases to overt plasma cell dyscrasias. It is also useful for risk stratification in solitary plasmacytoma and AL amyloidosis. The S-FLC measurement is part of the new diagnostic criteria for multiple myeloma, and provides a marker to follow changes in clonal substructure over time. Finally, the evaluation of S-FLC is fundamental for assessing the response to treatment in monoclonal light chain diseases.

Is Geo-Environmental Exposure a Risk Factor for Multiple Sclerosis? A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study in South-Western Sardinia.

PubMed

Monti, Maria Cristina; Guido, Davide; Montomoli, Cristina; Sardu, Claudia; Sanna, Alessandro; Pretti, Salvatore; Lorefice, Lorena; Marrosu, Maria Giovanna; Valera, Paolo; Cocco, Eleonora

South-Western Sardinia (SWS) is a high risk area for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) with high prevalence and spatial clustering; its population is genetically representative of Sardinians and presents a peculiar environment. We evaluated the MS environmental risk of specific heavy metals (HM) and geographical factors such as solar UV exposure and urbanization by undertaking a population-based cross-sectional study in SWS. Geochemical data on HM, UV exposure, urbanization and epidemiological MS data were available for all SWS municipalities. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to the geochemical data to reduce multicollinearity and confounding criticalities. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were applied to evaluate the causal effects of the potential risk factors, and a model selection was performed using Akaike Information Criterion. The PCA revealed that copper (Cu) does not cluster, while two component scores were extracted: 'basic rocks', including cobalt, chromium and nickel, and 'ore deposits', including lead and zinc. The selected multivariable GLMM highlighted Cu and sex as MS risk factors, adjusting for age and 'ore deposits'. When the Cu concentration increases by 50 ppm, the MS odds are 2.827 (95% CI: 1.645; 5.07) times higher; females have a MS odds 2.04 times (95% CI: 1.59; 2.60) higher than males. The high frequency of MS in industrialized countries, where pollution by HM and CO poisoning is widespread, suggests a relationship between environmental exposure to metals and MS. Hence, we suggested a role of Cu homeostasis in MS. This is a preliminary study aimed at generating hypotheses that will need to be confirmed further.

Multiple pregnancy, short cervix, part-time worker, steroid use, low educational level and male fetus are risk factors for preterm birth in Japan: a multicenter, prospective study.

PubMed

Shiozaki, Arihiro; Yoneda, Satoshi; Nakabayashi, Masao; Takeda, Yoshiharu; Takeda, Satoru; Sugimura, Motoi; Yoshida, Koyo; Tajima, Atsushi; Manabe, Mami; Akagi, Kozo; Nakagawa, Shoko; Tada, Katsuhiko; Imafuku, Noriaki; Ogawa, Masanobu; Mizunoe, Tomoya; Kanayama, Naohiro; Itoh, Hiroaki; Minoura, Shigeki; Ogino, Mitsuharu; Saito, Shigeru

2014-01-01

To examine the relationship between preterm birth and socioeconomic factors, past history, cervical length, cervical interleukin-8, bacterial vaginosis, underlying diseases, use of medication, employment status, sex of the fetus and multiple pregnancy. In a multicenter, prospective, observational study, 1810 Japanese women registering their future delivery were enrolled at 8⁺⁰ to 12⁺⁶ weeks of gestation. Data on cervical length and delivery were obtained from 1365 pregnant women. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Short cervical length, steroid use, multiple pregnancy and male fetus were risk factors for preterm birth before 34 weeks of gestation. Multiple pregnancy, low educational level, short cervical length and part-timer were risk factors for preterm birth before 37 weeks of gestation. Multiple pregnancy and cervical shortening at 20-24 weeks of gestation was a stronger risk factor for preterm birth. Any pregnant woman being part-time employee or low educational level, having a male fetus and requiring steroid treatment should be watched for the development of preterm birth. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2013 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters: A national registry study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, I-Ming; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Been; Wu, Chia-Yi; Lin, Po-Hsien; Chen, Wei J

2016-05-01

Little is known about the risk factors of suicide mortality among multiple attempters. This study aims to investigate the predictors of suicidal mortality in a prospective cohort of attempters in Taiwan, focusing on the time interval and suicide method change between the last two nonfatal attempts. The representative data retrieved from the National Suicide Surveillance System (NSSS) was linked with National Mortality Database to identify the causes of death in multiple attempters during 2006-2008. Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios for the predictors of suicide. Among the 55,560 attempters, 6485 (11.7%) had survived attempts ranging from one to 11 times; 861 (1.5%) eventually died by suicide. Multiple attempters were characterized by female (OR = 1.56, p < 0.0001), nonrecipient of national aftercare service (OR = 1.62, p < 0.0001), and current contact with mental health services (OR = 3.17, p < 0.0001). Most multiple attempters who survived from hanging (68.1%) and gas poisoning (61.9%) chose the same method in the following fatal episode. Predictors of suicidal death were identified as male, older age (≥ 45 years), shorter interval and not maintaining methods of low lethality in the last two nonfatal attempts. Receipt of nationwide aftercare was associated with lower risk of suicide but the effect was insignificant. The time interval of the last two nonfatal attempts and alteration in the lethality of suicide method were significant factors for completed suicide. Risk assessment involving these two factors may be necessary for multiple attempters in different clinical settings. Effective strategies for suicide prevention emphasizing this high risk population should be developed in the future. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Too attractive: the growing problem of magnet ingestions in children.

PubMed

Brown, Julie C; Otjen, Jeffrey P; Drugas, George T

2013-11-01

Small, powerful magnets are increasingly available in toys and other products and pose a health risk. Small spherical neodymium magnets marketed since 2008 are of particular concern. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, characteristics, and management of single and multiple-magnet ingestions over time. Magnet ingestion cases at a tertiary children's hospital were identified using radiology reports from June 2002 to December 2012. Cases were verified by chart and imaging review. Relative risk regressions were used to determine changes in the incidence of ingestions and interventions over time. Of 56 cases of magnet ingestion, 98% occurred in 2006 or later, and 57% involved multiple magnets. Median age was 8 years (range, 0-18 years). Overall, 21% of single and 88% of multiple ingestions had 2 or more imaging series obtained, whereas no single and 56.3% of multiple ingestions required intervention (25.0% endoscopy, 18.8% surgery, 12.5% both). Magnet ingestions increased in 2010 to 2012 compared with 2007 to 2009 (relative risk, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.0). Small, spherical magnets likely from magnet sets comprised 27% of ingestions, all ingested 2010 or later: 86% involved multiple magnets, 50% of which required intervention. Excluding these cases, ingestions of other magnets did not increase in 2010 to 2012 compared with 2007 to 2009 (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-1.4). The incidence of pediatric magnet ingestions and subsequent interventions has increased over time. Multiple-magnet ingestions result in high utilization of radiological imaging and surgical interventions. Recent increases parallel the increased availability of small, spherical magnet sets. Young and at-risk children should not have access to these and other small magnets. Improved regulation and magnet safety standards are needed.

Timed sequential chemotherapy of cytoxan-refractory multiple myeloma with cytoxan and adriamycin based on induced tumor proliferation.

PubMed

Karp, J E; Humphrey, R L; Burke, P J

1981-03-01

Malignant plasma cell proliferation and induced humoral stimulatory activity (HSA) occur in vivo at a predictable time following drug administration. Sequential sera from 11 patients with poor-risk multiple myeloma (MM) undergoing treatment with Cytoxan (CY) 2400 mq/sq m were assayed for their in vitro effects on malignant bone marrow plasma cell tritiated thymidine (3HTdR) incorporation. Peak HSA was detected day 9 following CY. Sequential changes in marrow malignant plasma cell 3HTdR-labeling indices (LI) paralleled changes in serum activity, with peak LI occurring at the time of peak HS. An in vitro model of chemotherapy demonstrated that malignant plasma cell proliferation was enhanced by HSA, as determined by 3HTdR incorporation assay, 3HTdR LI, and tumor cells counts, and that stimulated plasma cells were more sensitive to cytotoxic effects of adriamycin (ADR) than were cells cultured in autologous pretreatment serum. Based on these studies, we designed a clinical trial to treat 12 CY-refractory poor-risk patients with MM in which ADR (60 mg/sq m) was administered at the time of peak HSA and residual tumor cell LI (day 9) following initial CY, 2400 mg/m (CY1ADR9). Eight of 12 (67%) responded to timed sequential chemotherapy with a greater than 50% decrement in monoclonal protein marker and a median survival projected to be greater than 8 mo duration (range 4-21+ mo). These clinical results using timed sequential CY1ADR9 compare favorably with results obtained using ADR in nonsequential chemotherapeutic regimens.

Cumulative Risk Exposure and Waist Circumference in Preschool-Aged Children: the Mediating Role of Television and Moderating Role of Sex.

PubMed

Grummon, Anna H; Vaughn, Amber; Jones, Deborah J; Ward, Dianne S

2017-08-01

Children exposed to multiple stressors are more likely to be overweight, but little is known about the mechanisms explaining this association. This cross-sectional study examined whether children exposed to multiple stressors had higher waist circumference, and whether this association was mediated through children's television time. Participants were 319 parent-child dyads. Children were 2-5 years old and had at least one overweight parent (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m 2 ). Data were collected at baseline of a larger childhood obesity prevention study and included information on psychosocial stressors (e.g., parenting stress), demographic stressors (e.g., low income), children's television time, and children's waist circumference. Two cumulative risk scores were created by summing stressors in each domain (demographic and psychosocial). Mediation and moderated mediation analyses were conducted. Indirect effects of both cumulative risk scores on waist circumference through television time were not significant; however, moderated mediation analyses found significant moderation by gender. The indirect effects of both risk scores on waist circumference through television time were significant and positive for girls, but near-zero for boys. Reducing television time should be explored as a strategy for buffering against the negative health effects of exposure to multiple stressors among girls. Longitudinal and intervention research is needed to confirm these results and to identify mediating factors between cumulative risk and body weight among boys.

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

Elevated hardness of peripheral gland on real-time elastography is an independent marker for high-risk prostate cancers.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Yao, Jing; Cai, Yehua; Zhang, Limin; Wu, Yishuo; Xiong, Jingyu; Shi, Jun; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Yi

2017-12-01

To examine the role of quantitative real-time elastography (RTE) features on differentiation between high-risk prostate cancer (PCA) and non-high-risk prostatic diseases in the initial transperineal biopsy setting. We retrospectively included 103 patients with suspicious PCA who underwent both RTE and initial transperineal prostate biopsy. Patients were grouped into high-risk and non-high-risk categories according to the D'Amico's risk stratification. With computer assistance based on MATLAB programming, three features were extracted from RTE, i.e., the median hardness within peripheral gland (PG) (H med ), the ratio of the median hardness within PG to that outside PG (H ratio ), and the ratio of the hard area within PG to the total PG area (H ar ). A multiple regression model incorporating an RTE feature, age, transrectal ultrasound finding, and prostate volume was used to identify markers for high-risk PCA. Forty-seven patients (45.6%) were diagnosed with PCA and 34 (33.0%) were diagnosed with high-risk PCA. Three RTE features were all statistically higher in high-risk PCA than in non-high-risk diseases (p < 0.001), indicating that the PGs in high-risk PCA patients were harder than those in non-high-risk patients. A high H ratio , high age, and low prostate volume were found to be independent markers for PCAs (p < 0.05), among which the high H ratio was the only independent marker for high-risk PCAs (p = 0.012). When predicting high-risk PCAs, the multiple regression achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.755, sensitivity of 73.5%, and specificity of 71.0%. The elevated hardness of PG identified high-risk PCA and served as an independent marker of high-risk PCA. As a non-invasive imaging modality, the RTE could be potentially used in routine clinical practice for the detection of high-risk PCA to decrease unnecessary biopsies and reduce overtreatment.

Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

PubMed

Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

2007-09-14

Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.

Risk-Sensitive Control of Pure Jump Process on Countable Space with Near Monotone Cost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suresh Kumar, K., E-mail: suresh@math.iitb.ac.in; Pal, Chandan, E-mail: cpal@math.iitb.ac.in

2013-12-15

In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time pure jump process on a countable space as state dynamics. We prove multiplicative dynamic programming principle, elliptic and parabolic Harnack’s inequalities. Using the multiplicative dynamic programing principle and the Harnack’s inequalities, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under the near monotone condition.

The frequency of replacement of dental restorations may vary based on a number of variables, including type of material, size of the restoration, and caries risk of the patient.

PubMed

Roumanas, Eleni D

2010-03-01

The authors analyzed the dental records of 2780 Navy (cohort 1 = 1078 entered the Navy in 1997) and US Marine Corps recruits (cohort 2 =1053 entered the USMC in 1999-2000; cohort 3 = 649 entered the USMC in 2002-2005). The records were reviewed at 16 US Navy dental treatment facilities at the following time periods: cohort 1, 2001; cohort 2, 2002-2003; and cohort 3, 2005-2006. The mean age of the subjects was 20 years, and 85% were men. Only posterior teeth (not third molars) with amalgam or resin-based composite (including glass ionomer restorations) were evaluated. Teeth that had been restored with more than one material and restorations that did not involve the occlusal surface were excluded. The minimum follow-up time was 2 years with at least 2 periodic exams following the initial exam. The primary factor of interest was the type of restorative material (amalgam versus resin-based composite). Secondary factors included tooth number, number of restored surfaces (single or multiple), and caries risk of the patient. Caries risk status was defined using the Navy Dental Corps Oral Disease Risk Management protocol. The primary outcome measure of interest was the determination of the relative risk of replacement of an initially intact restoration during the subject's first years of military service. Restorations were classified as clinically acceptable or requiring replacement either as a result of new primary caries, secondary caries, defective restorations, or endodontic therapy. At the initial exam, 964 (15.2%) of the amalgam restorations and 199 (17.4%) of the resin-based composites required replacement and were excluded from further analysis. Of the remaining restorations, an additional 14.2% of the amalgam and 16.7% of the composite restorations required replacement during the observation period. The mean follow-up time was 3.0 years (cohort 1, 3.4 years; cohort 2, 3.1 years; cohort 3, 2.3 years). Replacement rates for resin-based composite restorations compared with amalgam were significantly higher owing to all causes (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.28; P < .05) and for replacement owing to restoration failure (adjusted HR, 1.64; P < .01). Multiple surface restorations demonstrated higher rates of replacement than single surface restorations from all causes (adjusted HR, 1.39; P < .01) and for replacement of existing restorations (adjusted HR, 1.82; P < .01). High-caries-risk subjects experienced more than twice the risk of retreatment than did low-caries-risk subjects when considering all replacements (adjusted HR, 2.04; P < .01) and 50% higher risk of replacement of previously restored surfaces (adjusted HR, 1.48; P<.01) Approximately 30% of all posterior restorations required replacement either at the initial or subsequent exams during the observation period. The number of resin-based composite restorations requiring replacement was significantly higher than amalgam restorations. The authors concluded that because of the extra cost, time, and potential for increased frequency of replacement, posterior composite restorations should be limited to restorations of appropriate size and placed under meticulous restorative technique with strict adherence to manufacturer's instructions.

Risk factors for asthma and timing of exposure among first generation Arab immigrants: a pilot effort to elucidate the role of exposure to risk factors over multiple life stages

EPA Science Inventory

Considerable controversy exists over the role of aero-allergens in asthma etiology. Some studies show increased risk with microbe and allergen exposure, while others show decreased risk. These discrepancies may be explained by timing of exposure. Previous research suggests that e...

Single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment: systematic review, meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

PubMed Central

Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd

2017-01-01

Objectives Single-visit root canal treatment has some advantages over conventional multivisit treatment, but might increase the risk of complications. We systematically evaluated the risk of complications after single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment using meta-analysis and trial-sequential analysis. Data Controlled trials comparing single-visit versus multiple-visit root canal treatment of permanent teeth were included. Trials needed to assess the risk of long-term complications (pain, infection, new/persisting/increasing periapical lesions ≥1 year after treatment), short-term pain or flare-up (acute exacerbation of initiation or continuation of root canal treatment). Sources Electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central) were screened, random-effects meta-analyses performed and trial-sequential analysis used to control for risk of random errors. Evidence was graded according to GRADE. Study selection 29 trials (4341 patients) were included, all but 6 showing high risk of bias. Based on 10 trials (1257 teeth), risk of complications was not significantly different in single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (risk ratio (RR) 1.00 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.35); weak evidence). Based on 20 studies (3008 teeth), risk of pain did not significantly differ between treatments (RR 0.99 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.30); moderate evidence). Risk of flare-up was recorded by 8 studies (1110 teeth) and was significantly higher after single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (RR 2.13 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.89); very weak evidence). Trial-sequential analysis revealed that firm evidence for benefit, harm or futility was not reached for any of the outcomes. Conclusions There is insufficient evidence to rule out whether important differences between both strategies exist. Clinical significance Dentists can provide root canal treatment in 1 or multiple visits. Given the possibly increased risk of flare-ups, multiple-visit treatment might be preferred for certain teeth (eg, those with periapical lesions). PMID:28148534

Efficiency of MY09/11 consensus PCR in the detection of multiple HPV infections.

PubMed

Şahiner, Fatih; Kubar, Ayhan; Gümral, Ramazan; Ardıç, Medine; Yiğit, Nuri; Şener, Kenan; Dede, Murat; Yapar, Mehmet

2014-09-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing has become an important component of cervical cancer screening programs. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the efficiency of MY09/11 consensus polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of multiple HPV infections. For this purpose, MY09/11 PCR was compared to an original TaqMan-based type-specific real-time PCR assay, which can detect 20 different HPV types. Of the 654 samples, 34.1% (223/654) were HPV DNA positive according to at least one method. The relative sensitivities of MY09/11 PCR and type-specific PCR were 80.7% (180/223) and 97.8% (218/223), respectively. In all, 352 different HPV isolates (66 low-risk and 286 high-risk or probable high-risk types) were identified in 218 samples, but 5 samples, which were positive by consensus PCR only, could not be genotyped. The distribution of the 286 high-risk or probable high-risk HPVs were as follows: 24.5% HPV-16, 8.4% HPV-52, 7.7% HPV-51, 6.3% HPV-39, 6.3% HPV-82, 5.6% HPV-35, 5.6% HPV-58, 5.6% HPV-66, 5.2% HPV-18, 5.2% HPV-68, and 19.6% the other 8 types. A single HPV type was detected in 57.3% (125/218) of the genotyped samples, and multiple HPV types were found in the remaining 42.7% (93/218). The false-negative rates of MY09/11 PCR were found to be 17.4% in single infections, 23.3% in multiple infections, and 34.6% in multiple infections that contained 3 or more HPV types, with the condition that the low-risk types HPV-6 and HPV-11 be considered as a monotype. These data suggest that broad-range PCR assays may lead to significant data loss and that type-specific PCR assays can provide accurate and reliable results during cervical cancer screening. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neonatal Risk Factors for Treatment-Demanding Retinopathy of Prematurity: A Danish National Study.

PubMed

Slidsborg, Carina; Jensen, Aksel; Forman, Julie Lyng; Rasmussen, Steen; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø; Greisen, Gorm; la Cour, Morten

2016-04-01

One goal of the study was to identify "new" statistically independent risk factors for treatment-demanding retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Another goal was to evaluate whether any new risk factors could explain the increase in the incidence of treatment-demanding ROP over time in Denmark. A retrospective, register-based cohort study. The study included premature infants (n = 6490) born in Denmark from 1997 to 2008. The study sample and the 31 candidate risk factors were identified in 3 national registers. Data were linked through a unique civil registration number. Each of the 31 candidate risk factors were evaluated in univariate analyses, while adjusted for known risk factors (i.e., gestational age [GA] at delivery, small for gestational age [SGA], multiple births, and male sex). Significant outcomes were analyzed thereafter in a backward selection multiple logistic regression model. Treatment-demanding ROP and its associations to candidate risk factors. Mechanical ventilation (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99-4.08; P < 0.01) and blood transfusion (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.20-3.14; P = 0.01) were the only new statistically independent risk factors, in addition to GA at delivery, SGA, multiple births, and male sex. Modification in these prognostic factors for ROP did not cause an increase in treatment-demanding ROP. In a large study population, blood transfusion and mechanical ventilation were the only new statistically independent risk factors to predict the development of treatment-demanding ROP. Modification in the neonatal treatment with mechanical ventilation or blood transfusion did not cause the observed increase in the incidence of preterm infants with treatment-demanding ROP during a recent birth period (2003-2008). Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Instrumental variables analysis using multiple databases: an example of antidepressant use and risk of hip fracture.

PubMed

Uddin, Md Jamal; Groenwold, Rolf H H; de Boer, Anthonius; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Martin, Elisa; Candore, Gianmario; Belitser, Svetlana V; Hoes, Arno W; Roes, Kit C B; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis can control for unmeasured confounding, yet it has not been widely used in pharmacoepidemiology. We aimed to assess the performance of IV analysis using different IVs in multiple databases in a study of antidepressant use and hip fracture. Information on adults with at least one prescription of a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) or tricyclic antidepressant (TCA) during 2001-2009 was extracted from the THIN (UK), BIFAP (Spain), and Mondriaan (Netherlands) databases. IVs were created using the proportion of SSRI prescriptions per practice or using the one, five, or ten previous prescriptions by a physician. Data were analysed using conventional Cox regression and two-stage IV models. In the conventional analysis, SSRI (vs. TCA) was associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, which was consistently found across databases: the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was approximately 1.35 for time-fixed and 1.50 to 2.49 for time-varying SSRI use, while the IV analysis based on the IVs that appeared to satisfy the IV assumptions showed conflicting results, e.g. the adjusted HRs ranged from 0.55 to 2.75 for time-fixed exposure. IVs for time-varying exposure violated at least one IV assumption and were therefore invalid. This multiple database study shows that the performance of IV analysis varied across the databases for time-fixed and time-varying exposures and strongly depends on the definition of IVs. It remains challenging to obtain valid IVs in pharmacoepidemiological studies, particularly for time-varying exposure, and IV analysis should therefore be interpreted cautiously. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparative analysis of Multiple risks in the Western part of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Chelidze, T.; Varazanashvili, O.; Amiranashvili, A.

2009-04-01

Georgia is prone to catastrophes. In the last two decades, there have occurred the following natural disasters: (a) Avalanches in Svaneti and Khevsureti, (b) landslides in the mountainous Achara, floods, (c) hurricane and drought in West and East Georgia, (d) Racha earthquake of 1991 and (e) the Tbilisi Earthquake of 2002. These phenomena are very special both from ecological and from social-economical points of view. By the disaster risk index obtained by the UNDP, Georgia is similar to countries with medium and high level risk. Therefore, natural disasters in Georgia are considered as a negative factor in the development process of the country. This implies the necessity of more active actions by all possible means to reduce the risk of natural disasters at each level and maintain the sustainable economic development of the country, including good education at the universities and schools for real understanding of natural hazards. The main goal of the work here is the assessment of 12 widespread natural disasters and multiple risks for political districts in West Georgia. These natural disasters include earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, floods, mudflows, droughts, hurricanes, lightning, hail, glaze, freezes, mists. The research was based on the following steps: (a) Creation of electronic detailed databases of natural disasters that occurred in Georgia. These databases consist of the parameters of such hazardous phenomena class that caused natural disasters. (b) Quantitative investigation of energetic and spatial-time regularities of 12 natural disasters for the territory of Georgia. Estimation of people and environment (technosphere) vulnerability. (c) Elaboration of mathematical models and algorithms of disasters multiple risks taking into account the concrete conditions: (i) Sharing and generalization of gathered experience in the world. This allows more proper and wide comparison of the multiple risks of Caucasus countries; (ii) Taking into account the general formula of risk = hazard x damage, transfer from analyze of separate risk to its complex one; (iii) Taking into account the reality of Georgia and complex scheme of revealed risk in separate district of the country during the construction of multiple risk models. Investigation of each step reveals problem according to essential parts in the multiple risks assessments, such as communication between scientists, engineers, civil protection and other agencies. A big gap in such kind of relationship leads to lack of important information, such as economic loss according to each hazard. Low level in education according in natural hazards cause bad management and sometimes increase economic and mortality loss.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Substantiating the need for primary care-based sexual health promotion interventions for ethnic minority adolescent women experiencing health disparities.

PubMed

Champion, Jane Dimmitt; Young, Cara; Rew, Lynn

2016-09-01

Assess the context of psychological distress, violence, and substance use among African- and Mexican-American adolescent women with a history of STI, violence, or high sexual risk behavior. These adolescents experience multiple health disparities, limited access to care, and are at particularly high risk of adverse sexual health outcomes. The results will inform sexual health promotion interventions provided by advanced practice nurses in primary care-based settings for women experiencing these disparities. Analysis of self-report data obtained at study entry from African- and Mexican-American adolescent women (n = 559) enrolled in a randomized trial of a behavioral intervention for sexual risk reduction. High levels of psychological distress, sexual risk behavior, sexually transmitted infection (STI), personal and friend/peer substance use, alcohol use, and violence were reported by women at study entry. Analyses found that STI, physical violence, and substance-using friends were twice as likely associated with personal substance use. Alcohol users were five times more likely to use other substances. Mexican Americans were three times more likely than African Americans to use substances. Recommendation is made for integration of multicomponent sexual health promotion interventions as advanced practice nurse provider services addressing these health disparities within primary care-based settings. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Prognostic Classification Factors Associated With Development of Multiple Autoantibodies, Dysglycemia, and Type 1 Diabetes-A Recursive Partitioning Analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Ping; Krischer, Jeffrey P

2016-06-01

To define prognostic classification factors associated with the progression from single to multiple autoantibodies, multiple autoantibodies to dysglycemia, and dysglycemia to type 1 diabetes onset in relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes. Three distinct cohorts of subjects from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study were investigated separately. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to determine the risk classes. Clinical characteristics, including genotype, antibody titers, and metabolic markers were analyzed. Age and GAD65 autoantibody (GAD65Ab) titers defined three risk classes for progression from single to multiple autoantibodies. The 5-year risk was 11% for those subjects >16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, 29% for those ≤16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, and 45% for those subjects with high GAD65Ab titers regardless of age. Progression to dysglycemia was associated with islet antigen 2 Ab titers, and 2-h glucose and fasting C-peptide levels. The 5-year risk is 28%, 39%, and 51% for respective risk classes defined by the three predictors. Progression to type 1 diabetes was associated with the number of positive autoantibodies, peak C-peptide level, HbA1c level, and age. Four risk classes defined by RPA had a 5-year risk of 9%, 33%, 62%, and 80%, respectively. The use of RPA offered a new classification approach that could predict the timing of transitions from one preclinical stage to the next in the development of type 1 diabetes. Using these RPA classes, new prevention techniques can be tailored based on the individual prognostic risk characteristics at different preclinical stages. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Early mortality in multiple myeloma: the time-dependent impact of comorbidity: A population-based study in 621 real-life patients.

PubMed

Ríos-Tamayo, Rafael; Sáinz, Juan; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Puerta, José Manuel; Chang, Daysi-Yoe-Ling; Rodríguez, Teresa; Garrido, Pilar; de Veas, José Luís García; Romero, Antonio; Moratalla, Lucía; López-Fernández, Elisa; González, Pedro Antonio; Sánchez, María José; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan; Jurado, Manuel; Lahuerta, Juan José

2016-07-01

Multiple myeloma is a heterogeneous disease with variable survival; this variability cannot be fully explained by the current systems of risk stratification. Early mortality remains a serious obstacle to further improve the trend toward increased survival demonstrated in recent years. However, the definition of early mortality is not standardized yet. Importantly, no study has focused on the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma to date. Therefore, we analyzed the role of baseline comorbidity in a large population-based cohort of 621 real-life myeloma patients over a 31-year period. To evaluate early mortality, a sequential multivariate regression model at 2, 6, and 12 months from diagnosis was performed. It was demonstrated that comorbidity had an independent impact on early mortality, which is differential and time-dependent. Besides renal failure, respiratory disease at 2 months, liver disease at 6 months, and hepatitis virus C infection at 12 months, were, respectively, associated with early mortality, adjusting for other well-established prognostic factors. On the other hand, the long-term monitoring in our study points out a modest downward trend in early mortality over time. This is the first single institution population-based study aiming to assess the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma. It is suggested that early mortality should be analyzed at three key time points (2, 6, and 12 months), in order to allow comparisons between studies. Comorbidity plays a critical role in the outcome of myeloma patients in terms of early mortality. Am. J. Hematol. 91:700-704, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing Causal Mechanistic Interactions: A Peril Ratio Index of Synergy Based on Multiplicativity

PubMed Central

Lee, Wen-Chung

2013-01-01

The assessments of interactions in epidemiology have traditionally been based on risk-ratio, odds-ratio or rate-ratio multiplicativity. However, many epidemiologists fail to recognize that this is mainly for statistical conveniences and often will misinterpret a statistically significant interaction as a genuine mechanistic interaction. The author adopts an alternative metric system for risk, the ‘peril’. A peril is an exponentiated cumulative rate, or simply, the inverse of a survival (risk complement) or one plus an odds. The author proposes a new index based on multiplicativity of peril ratios, the ‘peril ratio index of synergy based on multiplicativity’ (PRISM). Under the assumption of no redundancy, PRISM can be used to assess synergisms in sufficient cause sense, i.e., causal co-actions or causal mechanistic interactions. It has a less stringent threshold to detect a synergy as compared to a previous index of ‘relative excess risk due to interaction’. Using the new PRISM criterion, many situations in which there is not evidence of interaction judged by the traditional indices are in fact corresponding to bona fide positive or negative synergisms. PMID:23826299

Ethnic differences in progression of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes in relatives at risk.

PubMed

Tosur, Mustafa; Geyer, Susan M; Rodriguez, Henry; Libman, Ingrid; Baidal, David A; Redondo, Maria J

2018-06-21

We hypothesised that progression of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes mellitus differs among races/ethnicities in at-risk individuals. In this study, we analysed the data from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study. We studied 4873 non-diabetic, autoantibody-positive relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes followed prospectively (11% Hispanic, 80.9% non-Hispanic white [NHW], 2.9% non-Hispanic black [NHB] and 5.2% non-Hispanic other [NHO]). Primary outcomes were time from single autoantibody positivity confirmation to multiple autoantibody positivity, and time from multiple autoantibody positivity to type 1 diabetes mellitus diagnosis. Conversion from single to multiple autoantibody positivity was less common in Hispanic individuals than in NHW individuals (HR 0.66 [95% CI 0.46, 0.96], p = 0.028) adjusting for autoantibody type, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial Type 1 Risk Score and HLA-DR3-DQ2/DR4-DQ8 genotype. In participants who screened positive for multiple autoantibodies (n = 2834), time to type 1 diabetes did not differ by race/ethnicity overall (p = 0.91). In children who were <12 years old when multiple autoantibody positivity was determined, being overweight/obese had differential effects by ethnicity: type 1 diabetes risk was increased by 36% in NHW children (HR 1.36 [95% CI 1.04, 1.77], p = 0.024) and was nearly quadrupled in Hispanic children (HR 3.8 [95% CI 1.6, 9.1], p = 0.0026). We did not observe this interaction in participants who were ≥12 years old at determination of autoantibody positivity, although this group size was limited. No significant differential risks were observed between individuals of NHB and NHW ethnicity. The risk and rate of progression of islet autoimmunity were lower in Hispanic compared with NHW at-risk individuals, while significant differences in the development of type 1 diabetes were limited to children <12 years old and were modified by BMI.

Influence of an injury reduction program on injury and fitness outcomes among soldiers

PubMed Central

Knapik, J; Bullock, S; Canada, S; Toney, E; Wells, J; Hoedebecke, E; Jones, B

2004-01-01

Objective: This study evaluated the influence of a multiple injury control intervention on injury and physical fitness outcomes among soldiers attending United States Army Ordnance School Advanced Individual Training. Methods: The study design was quasiexperimental involving a historical control group (n = 2559) that was compared to a multiple intervention group (n = 1283). Interventions in the multiple intervention group included modified physical training, injury education, and a unit based injury surveillance system (UBISS). The management responsible for training independently formed an Injury Control Advisory Committee that examined surveillance reports from the UBISS and recommended changes to training. On arrival at school, individual soldiers completed a demographics and lifestyle questionnaire and took an army physical fitness test (APFT: push-ups, sit-ups, and two mile run). Injuries among soldiers were tracked by a clinic based injury surveillance system that was separate from the UBISS. Soldiers completed a final APFT eight weeks after arrival at school. Results: Cox regression (survival analysis) was used to examine differences in time to the first injury while controlling for group differences in demographics, lifestyle characteristics, and physical fitness. The adjusted relative risk of a time loss injury was 1.5 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 1.8) times higher in the historical control men and 1.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.8) times higher in the historical control women compared with the multiple intervention men and women, respectively. After correcting for the lower initial fitness of the multiple intervention group, there were no significant differences between the multiple intervention and historical control groups in terms of improvements in push-ups, sit-ups, or two mile run performance. Conclusions: This multiple intervention program contributed to a reduction in injuries while improvements in physical fitness were similar to a traditional physical training program previously used at the school. PMID:14760025

Setting Single or Multiple Goals for Diet and Physical Activity Behaviors Improves Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Pragmatic Pilot Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Swoboda, Christine M; Miller, Carla K; Wills, Celia E

2016-08-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a 4-month telephone-based goal-setting and decision support intervention among adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). A randomized pretest-posttest control group design was employed. Overweight or obese adults aged 40 to 75 years with T2DM and ≥1 additional CVD risk factor were provided with individualized CVD risk information. At baseline and each biweekly telephone call, the multiple-goal group self-selected both diet- and physical activity-related goals, the single goal group set a single goal, and the control group received information about community health resources. Dietary intake was assessed via a food frequency questionnaire, physical activity via questionnaire, and A1C and blood lipids via fasting fingerstick sample. Between-group differences for clinical (ie, A1C, blood pressure, and blood lipids), physical activity, and dietary variables were evaluated using Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, analysis of variance, and t tests. From pre- to postintervention, the single-goal group demonstrated significant improvement in systolic blood pressure and intake of servings of fruits, vegetables, and refined grains (all P < .05). The multiple-goal group reported significant reduction in percent energy from total, saturated, monounsaturated, and trans fat intake and significant increase in leisure time walking (all P < .05). A multiple-goal approach over 4 months can improve dietary and physical activity outcomes, while a single-goal approach may facilitate improvement in one behavioral domain. Additional research is needed to evaluate maintenance of the achieved changes. © 2016 The Author(s).

Television viewing and other screen-based entertainment in relation to multiple socioeconomic status indicators and area deprivation: the Scottish Health Survey 2003.

PubMed

Stamatakis, E; Hillsdon, M; Mishra, G; Hamer, M; Marmot, M

2009-09-01

Sedentary behaviour (sitting) is detrimental to health, independently of participation in physical activity. Socioeconomic position (SEP) is known to relate strongly to physical activity participation but we know very little about how SEP relates to sedentary behaviour. This study aimed to assess the relationships between SEP, neighbourhood deprivation and an index of sedentary time. Cross-sectional study of a representative sample of 7940 Scottish adults who participated in the 2003 Scottish Health Survey, which collected information on SEP (household income, social class and education), neighbourhood deprivation (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation), television and other screen-based entertainment time, and physical activity. The three indicators of SEP and deprivation index were independently of each other associated with daily times of television and other screen-based entertainment, even after adjustment for occupational and leisure-time physical activity, health status, smoking, alcohol drinking, car ownership and body mass index: income p = 0.002; social class p<0.001; education p<0.001, deprivation p<0.001. Also, there was a strong cumulative effect of SEP (a composite scale where 0 = lowest, 9 = highest SEP position) with those in the lowest SEP spending an additional 109 minutes each day on screen-based entertainment compared to those in the highest socioeconomic position (p<0.001 for linear trend). Adverse socioeconomic position is associated with a cumulative increase in the time spent on screen-based entertainment. Reducing inequalities would be expected to reduce exposure to sedentary behaviours, such as excessive screen-based entertainment times, and therefore reduce the risk of chronic disease.

Adolescent Non-Involvement in Multiple Risk Behaviors: An Indicator of Successful Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willoughby, Teena; Chalmers, Heather; Busseri, Michael A.; Bosacki, Sandra; Dupont, Diane; Marini, Zopito; Rose-Krasnor, Linda; Sadava, Stan; Ward, Anthony; Woloshyn, Vera

2007-01-01

Based on the conceptualization of successful development as the joint maximization of desirable outcomes and minimization of undesirable outcomes (Baltes, 1997), the present study examined connections between adolescent non-involvement in multiple risk behaviors and positive developmental status. Results from a survey of 7290 high school students…

Assessing patient risk of central line-associated bacteremia via machine learning.

PubMed

Beeler, Cole; Dbeibo, Lana; Kelley, Kristen; Thatcher, Levi; Webb, Douglas; Bah, Amadou; Monahan, Patrick; Fowler, Nicole R; Nicol, Spencer; Judy-Malcolm, Alisa; Azar, Jose

2018-04-13

Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) contribute to increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, and cost. Despite progress in understanding the risk factors, there remains a need to accurately predict the risk of CLABSIs and, in real time, prevent them from occurring. A predictive model was developed using retrospective data from a large academic healthcare system. Models were developed with machine learning via construction of random forests using validated input variables. Fifteen variables accounted for the most significant effect on CLABSI prediction based on a retrospective study of 70,218 unique patient encounters between January 1, 2013, and May 31, 2016. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the best-performing model was 0.82 in production. This model has multiple applications for resource allocation for CLABSI prevention, including serving as a tool to target patients at highest risk for potentially cost-effective but otherwise time-limited interventions. Machine learning can be used to develop accurate models to predict the risk of CLABSI in real time prior to the development of infection. Copyright © 2018 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Risk Factors for Severe Pneumonia in Children: The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health Study

PubMed Central

Deloria-Knoll, Maria; Feikin, Daniel R.; DeLuca, Andrea N.; Driscoll, Amanda J.; Moïsi, Jennifer C.; Johnson, Hope L.; Murdoch, David R.; O’Brien, Katherine L.; Levine, Orin S.; Scott, J. Anthony G.

2012-01-01

As a case-control study of etiology, the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project also provides an opportunity to assess the risk factors for severe pneumonia in hospitalized children at 7 sites. We identified relevant risk factors by literature review and iterative expert consultation. Decisions for inclusion in PERCH were based on comparability to published data, analytic plans, data collection costs and logistic feasibility, including interviewer time and subject fatigue. We aimed to standardize questions at all sites, but significant variation in the economic, cultural, and geographic characteristics of sites made it difficult to obtain this objective. Despite these challenges, the depth of the evaluation of multiple risk factors across the breadth of the PERCH sites should furnish new and valuable information about the major risk factors for childhood severe and very severe pneumonia, including risk factors for pneumonia caused by specific etiologies, in developing countries. PMID:22403226

Evaluation of risk factors for severe pneumonia in children: the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study.

PubMed

Wonodi, Chizoba B; Deloria-Knoll, Maria; Feikin, Daniel R; DeLuca, Andrea N; Driscoll, Amanda J; Moïsi, Jennifer C; Johnson, Hope L; Murdoch, David R; O'Brien, Katherine L; Levine, Orin S; Scott, J Anthony G

2012-04-01

As a case-control study of etiology, the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) project also provides an opportunity to assess the risk factors for severe pneumonia in hospitalized children at 7 sites. We identified relevant risk factors by literature review and iterative expert consultation. Decisions for inclusion in PERCH were based on comparability to published data, analytic plans, data collection costs and logistic feasibility, including interviewer time and subject fatigue. We aimed to standardize questions at all sites, but significant variation in the economic, cultural, and geographic characteristics of sites made it difficult to obtain this objective. Despite these challenges, the depth of the evaluation of multiple risk factors across the breadth of the PERCH sites should furnish new and valuable information about the major risk factors for childhood severe and very severe pneumonia, including risk factors for pneumonia caused by specific etiologies, in developing countries.

Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brodin, N. Patrik, E-mail: nils.patrik.brodin@rh.dk; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen; Vogelius, Ivan R.

2013-10-01

Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used tomore » model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.« less

Quantification of Circulating Clonal Plasma Cells via Multiparametric Flow Cytometry Identifies Patients with Smoldering Multiple Myeloma at High Risk of Progression

PubMed Central

Gonsalves, Wilson I.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Dispenzieri, Angela; Dingli, David; Timm, Michael M.; Morice, William G.; Lacy, Martha Q.; Buadi, Francis K.; Go, Ronald S.; Leung, Nelson; Kapoor, Prashant; Hayman, Suzanne R.; Lust, John A.; Russell, Stephen J.; Zeldenrust, Steven R.; Hwa, Lisa; Kourelis, Taxiarchis V.; Kyle, Robert A.; Gertz, Morie A.; Kumar, Shaji K.

2017-01-01

The presence of high numbers of circulating clonal plasma cells (cPCs) in patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), detected by a slide-based immunofluorescence assay, has been associated with a shorter time to progression (TTP) to multiple myeloma (MM). The significance of quantifying cPCs via multiparameter flow cytometry, a much more readily available diagnostic modality, in patients with SMM has not been evaluated. This study evaluated 100 patients with a known or new diagnosis of SMM who were seen at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester from January 2008 until December 2013. Patients with ≥ 150 cPCs (N = 9) were considered to have high number of cPCs based on the 97% specificity and 78% PPV of progression to MM within 2 years of cPC assessment. The median TTP of patients with ≥ 150 cPCs was 9 months compared to not reached for patients with < 150 cPCs (P < 0.001). Thus, quantification of cPCs via multiparametric flow cytometry identifies patients with SMM at very high risk of progression to MM within 2 years and warrants confirmation in larger studies. In the future, this may allow reclassification of such patients as having MM requiring therapy prior to them enduring end-organ damage. PMID:27457702

Multiple Traumatic Events and Psychological Distress : The South Africa Stress and Health Study

PubMed Central

Williams, Stacey L.; Williams, David R.; Stein, Dan J.; Seedat, Soraya; Jackson, Pamela B.; Moomal, Hashim

2011-01-01

Using nationally representative data from South Africa, we examine lifetime prevalence of traumas and multiple traumas (number of events). Employing multiple regression analysis, we study sociodemographic risk of trauma, and the association between trauma and distress. Results indicate most South Africans experience at least one traumatic event during their lives, with the majority reporting multiple. Consistent variation in risk is evident for gender and marital status but not other sociodemographics. Trauma is positively related to high distress, and findings also support a cumulative effect of trauma exposure. Individuals with the most traumas (6+) appear at five- times greater risk of high distress. This study highlights the importance of considering traumatic events in the context of other traumas in South Africa. PMID:17955545

Multiple traumatic events and psychological distress: the South Africa stress and health study.

PubMed

Williams, Stacey L; Williams, David R; Stein, Dan J; Seedat, Soraya; Jackson, Pamela B; Moomal, Hashim

2007-10-01

Using nationally representative data from South Africa, we examine lifetime prevalence of traumas and multiple traumas (number of events). Employing multiple regression analysis, the authors study the sociodemographic risk of trauma, and the association between trauma and distress. Results indicate most South Africans experience at least one traumatic event during their lives, with the majority reporting multiple. Consistent variation in risk is evident for gender and marital status, but not other sociodemographics. Trauma is positively related to high distress, and findings also support a cumulative effect of trauma exposure. Individuals with the most traumas (6+) appear at 5 times greater risk of high distress. This study highlights the importance of considering traumatic events in the context of other traumas in South Africa.

Maternal Risk Factors for Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders in a Province in Italy*

PubMed Central

Ceccanti, Mauro; Fiorentino, Daniela; Coriale, Giovanna; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Gossage, J. Phillip; Robinson, Luther K.; Manning, Melanie; Romeo, Marina; Hasken, Julie M.; Tabachnick, Barbara; Blankenship, Jason

2016-01-01

Background Maternal risk factors for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) in Italy and Mediterranean cultures need clarification, as there are few studies and most are plagued by inaccurate reporting of antenatal alcohol use. Methods Maternal interviews (n=905) were carried out in a population-based study of the prevalence and characteristics of FASD in the Lazio region of Italy which provided data for multivariate case control comparisons and multiple correlation models. Results Case control findings from interviews seven years post-partum indicate that mothers of children with FASD are significantly more likely than randomly-selected controls or community mothers to: be shorter; have higher body mass indexes (BMI); be married to a man with legal problems; report more drinking three months pre-pregnancy; engage in more current drinking and drinking alone; and have alcohol problems in her family. Logistic regression analysis of multiple candidate predictors of a FASD diagnosis indicates that alcohol problems in the child’s family is the most significant risk factor, making a diagnosis within the continuum of FASD 9 times more likely (95% C.I. = 1.6 to 50.7). Sequential multiple regression analysis of the child’s neuropsychological performance also identifies alcohol problems in the child’s family as the only significant maternal risk variable (p<.001) when controlling for other potential risk factors. Conclusions Underreporting of prenatal alcohol use has been demonstrated among Italian and other Mediterranean antenatal samples, and it was suspected in this sample. Nevertheless, several significant maternal risk factors for FASD have been identified. PMID:25456331

Maternal risk factors for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders in a province in Italy.

PubMed

Ceccanti, Mauro; Fiorentino, Daniela; Coriale, Giovanna; Kalberg, Wendy O; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene; Gossage, J Phillip; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Romeo, Marina; Hasken, Julie M; Tabachnick, Barbara; Blankenship, Jason; May, Philip A

2014-12-01

Maternal risk factors for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) in Italy and Mediterranean cultures need clarification, as there are few studies and most are plagued by inaccurate reporting of antenatal alcohol use. Maternal interviews (n = 905) were carried out in a population-based study of the prevalence and characteristics of FASD in the Lazio region of Italy which provided data for multivariate case control comparisons and multiple correlation models. Case control findings from interviews seven years post-partum indicate that mothers of children with FASD are significantly more likely than randomly-selected controls or community mothers to: be shorter; have higher body mass indexes (BMI); be married to a man with legal problems; report more drinking three months pre-pregnancy; engage in more current drinking and drinking alone; and have alcohol problems in her family. Logistic regression analysis of multiple candidate predictors of a FASD diagnosis indicates that alcohol problems in the child's family is the most significant risk factor, making a diagnosis within the continuum of FASD 9 times more likely (95%C.I. = 1.6 to 50.7). Sequential multiple regression analysis of the child's neuropsychological performance also identifies alcohol problems in the child's family as the only significant maternal risk variable (p < .001) when controlling for other potential risk factors. Underreporting of prenatal alcohol use has been demonstrated among Italian and other Mediterranean antenatal samples, and it was suspected in this sample. Nevertheless, several significant maternal risk factors for FASD have been identified. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

War-related trauma exposure and multiple risk behaviors among school-going adolescents in Northern Uganda: the mediating role of depression symptoms.

PubMed

Okello, James; Nakimuli-Mpungu, Etheldreda; Musisi, Seggane; Broekaert, Eric; Derluyn, Ilse

2013-11-01

The relationship between war-related trauma exposure, depressive symptoms and multiple risk behaviors among adolescents is less clear in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed data collected from a sample of school-going adolescents four years postwar. Participants completed interviews assessing various risk behaviors defined by the Youth Self Report (YSR) and a sexual risk behavior survey, and were screened for post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression symptoms based on the Impact of Events Scale Revised (IESR) and Hopkins Symptom Checklist for Adolescents (HSCL-37A) respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors independently associated with multiple risk behaviors. The logistic regression model of Baron and Kenny (1986) was used to evaluate the mediating role of depression in the relationship between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. Of 551 participants, 139 (25%) reported multiple (three or more) risk behaviors in the past year. In the multivariate analyses, depression symptoms remained uniquely associated with multiple risk behavior after adjusting for potential confounders including socio-demographic characteristics, war-related trauma exposure variables, anxiety and post-traumatic stress symptoms. In mediation analysis, depression symptoms mediated the associations between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. The psychometric properties of the questionnaires used in this study are not well established in war affected African samples thus ethno cultural variation may decrease the validity of our measures. Adolescents with depression may be at a greater risk of increased engagement in multiple risk behaviors. Culturally sensitive and integrated interventions to treat and prevent depression among adolescents in post-conflict settings are urgently needed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

PubMed

Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

2014-01-01

This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a younger population, including high blood pressure, hypercholesterolaemia, overweight and obesity and diabetes, were not independent predictors of mortality in this population of older men.

Application of a Pharmacokinetic Model of Metformin Clearance in a Population with Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

PubMed

Ceacareanu, Alice C; Brown, Geoffrey W; Moussa, Hoda A; Wintrob, Zachary A P

2018-01-01

We aimed to estimate the metformin-associated lactic acidosis (MALA) risk by assessing retrospectively the renal clearance variability and applying a pharmacokinetic (PK) model of metformin clearance in a population diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and diabetes mellitus (DM). All adults with preexisting DM and newly diagnosed AML at Roswell Park Cancer Institute were reviewed (January 2003-December 2010, n = 78). Creatinine clearance (CrCl) and total body weight distributions were used in a two-compartment PK model adapted for multiple dosing and modified to account for actual intra- and inter-individual variability. Based on this renal function variability evidence, 1000 PK profiles were simulated for multiple metformin regimens with the resultant PK profiles being assessed for safe CrCl thresholds. Metformin 500 mg up to three times daily was safe for all simulated profiles with CrCl ≥25 mL/min. Furthermore, the estimated overall MALA risk was below 10%, remaining under 5% for 500 mg given once daily. CrCl ≥65.25 mL/min was safe for administration in any of the tested regimens (500 mg or 850 mg up to three times daily or 1000 mg up to twice daily). PK simulation-guided prescribing can maximize metformin's beneficial effects on cancer outcomes while minimizing MALA risk.

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

Numerical study of impact erosion of multiple solid particle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Chao; Liu, Yonghong; Chen, Cheng; Qin, Jie; Ji, Renjie; Cai, Baoping

2017-11-01

Material erosion caused by continuous particle impingement during hydraulic fracturing results in significant economic loss and increased production risks. The erosion process is complex and has not been clearly explained through physical experiments. To address this problem, a multiple particle model in a 3D configuration was proposed to investigate the dynamic erosion process. This approach can significantly reduce experiment costs. The numerical model considered material damping and elastic-plastic material behavior of target material. The effects of impact parameters on erosion characteristics, such as plastic deformation, contact time, and energy loss rate, were investigated. Based on comprehensive studies, the dynamic erosion mechanism and geometry evolution of eroded crater was obtained. These findings can provide a detailed erosion process of target material and insights into the material erosion caused by multiple particle impingement.

Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

PubMed

Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

2017-09-06

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its shortcomings, and so further research is needed to identify optimal approaches for relative risk estimation within the multiple imputation framework.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

2016-03-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical specificity.

Single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment: systematic review, meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd

2017-02-01

Single-visit root canal treatment has some advantages over conventional multivisit treatment, but might increase the risk of complications. We systematically evaluated the risk of complications after single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment using meta-analysis and trial-sequential analysis. Controlled trials comparing single-visit versus multiple-visit root canal treatment of permanent teeth were included. Trials needed to assess the risk of long-term complications (pain, infection, new/persisting/increasing periapical lesions ≥1 year after treatment), short-term pain or flare-up (acute exacerbation of initiation or continuation of root canal treatment). Electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central) were screened, random-effects meta-analyses performed and trial-sequential analysis used to control for risk of random errors. Evidence was graded according to GRADE. 29 trials (4341 patients) were included, all but 6 showing high risk of bias. Based on 10 trials (1257 teeth), risk of complications was not significantly different in single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (risk ratio (RR) 1.00 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.35); weak evidence). Based on 20 studies (3008 teeth), risk of pain did not significantly differ between treatments (RR 0.99 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.30); moderate evidence). Risk of flare-up was recorded by 8 studies (1110 teeth) and was significantly higher after single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (RR 2.13 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.89); very weak evidence). Trial-sequential analysis revealed that firm evidence for benefit, harm or futility was not reached for any of the outcomes. There is insufficient evidence to rule out whether important differences between both strategies exist. Dentists can provide root canal treatment in 1 or multiple visits. Given the possibly increased risk of flare-ups, multiple-visit treatment might be preferred for certain teeth (eg, those with periapical lesions). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis.

PubMed

Abner, Erin L; Charnigo, Richard J; Kryscio, Richard J

2013-10-25

A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields.

Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis

PubMed Central

Abner, Erin L.; Charnigo, Richard J.; Kryscio, Richard J.

2014-01-01

A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields. PMID:24818062

CHD associated with syndromic diagnoses: peri-operative risk factors and early outcomes

PubMed Central

Landis, Benjamin J.; Cooper, David S.; Hinton, Robert B.

2016-01-01

CHD is frequently associated with a genetic syndrome. These syndromes often present specific cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular co-morbidities that confer significant peri-operative risks affecting multiple organ systems. Although surgical outcomes have improved over time, these co-morbidities continue to contribute substantially to poor peri-operative mortality and morbidity outcomes. Peri-operative morbidity may have long-standing ramifications on neurodevelopment and overall health. Recognising the cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular risks associated with specific syndromic diagnoses will facilitate expectant management, early detection of clinical problems, and improved outcomes – for example, the development of syndrome-based protocols for peri-operative evaluation and prophylactic actions may improve outcomes for the more frequently encountered syndromes such as 22q11 deletion syndrome. PMID:26345374

Risk of breast cancer following low-dose radiation exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boice, J.D. Jr.; Land, C.E.; Shore, R.E.

1979-06-01

Risk of breast cancer following radiation exposure was studied, based on surveys of tuberculosis patients who had multiple fluoroscopic examinations of the chest, mastitis patients given radiotherapy, and atomic bomb survivors. Analysis suggests that the risk is greatest for persons exposed as adolescents, although exposure at all ages carries some risk. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity in all studies. Direct evidence of radiation risk at doses under 0.5 Gy (50 rad) is apparent among A-bomb survivors. Fractionation does not appear to diminish risk, nor does time since exposure (even after 45 years of observation). The interval between exposuremore » and the clinical appearance of radiogenic breast cancer may be mediated by hormonal or other age-related factors but is unrelated to dose. Age-specific absolute risk estimtes for all studies are remarkably similar. The best estimate of risk among American women exposed after age 20 is 6.6 excess cancers/10/sup 4/ WY-Gy (10/sup 6/ WY-rad).« less

Body Mass Index and Physical Activity at Different Ages and Risk of Multiple Myeloma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Jonathan N.; Moore, Steven C.; Lim, Unhee; Park, Yikyung; Baris, Dalsu; Hollenbeck, Albert R.; Matthews, Charles E.; Gibson, Todd M.; Hartge, Patricia; Purdue, Mark P.

2013-01-01

Several studies have reported an increased risk of multiple myeloma associated with excess body weight. We investigated the risk of multiple myeloma in relation to separate measures of adiposity and energy balance at different ages in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a large prospective cohort study in the United States. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1995–1996; n = 485,049), and a subset of participants completed a second questionnaire (1996–1997; n = 305,618) in which we solicited more detailed exposure information. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the risk of multiple myeloma (overall, n = 813; subset, n = 489) in relation to several measures of obesity and leisure time physical activity. Multiple myeloma risk was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI) at cohort entry (per 5-kg/m2 increase, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.22); similar associations were observed for BMI at age 50 years (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.28), age 35 years (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.36), and age 18 years (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.32) without adjustment for baseline BMI. Risk of multiple myeloma was not associated with physical activity level at any age. These findings support the hypothesis that excess body weight, both in early adulthood and later in life, is a risk factor for multiple myeloma and suggest that maintaining a healthy body weight throughout life may reduce multiple myeloma risk. PMID:23543160

Predictive model of urinary tract infection after surgical treatment for women with endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Machida, Hiroko; Hom, Marianne S; Shabalova, Anastasiya; Grubbs, Brendan H; Matsuo, Koji

2017-08-01

The aim of the study was to identify risk factors associated with postoperative urinary tract infections (UTIs) following hysterectomy-based surgical staging in women with endometrial cancer. This is a retrospective study utilizing an institutional database (2008-2016) of stage I-IV endometrial cancer cases that underwent hysterectomy-based surgery. UTIs occurring within a 30-day time period after surgery were examined and correlated to patient clinico-pathological demographics. UTIs were observed in 44 (6.4%, 95% confidence interval 4.6-8.2) out of 687 cases subsequent to the diagnosis of endometrial cancer. UTI cases were significantly associated with obesity, advanced stage, prolonged operative time, hysterectomy type, pelvic lymphadenectomy, non-β-lactam antibiotics, and intraoperative urinary tract injury (all, p < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, three independent risk factors were identified for UTIs: prolonged operative time [odds ratio (OR) 3.36, 95% CI 1.65-6.87, p = 0.001], modified-radical/radical hysterectomy (OR 5.35, 95% CI 1.56-18.4, p = 0.008), and an absence of perioperative β-lactam antibiotics use (OR 3.50, 95% CI 1.46-8.38, p = 0.005). In a predictive model of UTI, the presence of multiple risk factors was associated with significantly increased risk of UTI: 4.1% for the group with no risk factors, 7.3-12.5% (OR 1.85-3.37) for single risk factor group, and 30.0-30.8% (OR 10.1-10.5) for two risk factor group. Urinary tract infections are common in women following surgical treatment for women with endometrial cancer with risk factors being a prolonged surgical time, radical hysterectomy, and non-guideline perioperative anti-microbial agent use. Consideration of prophylactic anti-microbial agent use in a high-risk group of postoperative urinary tract infection merits further investigation.

An optimization-based approach for facility energy management with uncertainties, and, Power portfolio optimization in deregulated electricity markets with risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jun

Topic 1. An Optimization-Based Approach for Facility Energy Management with Uncertainties. Effective energy management for facilities is becoming increasingly important in view of the rising energy costs, the government mandate on the reduction of energy consumption, and the human comfort requirements. This part of dissertation presents a daily energy management formulation and the corresponding solution methodology for HVAC systems. The problem is to minimize the energy and demand costs through the control of HVAC units while satisfying human comfort, system dynamics, load limit constraints, and other requirements. The problem is difficult in view of the fact that the system is nonlinear, time-varying, building-dependent, and uncertain; and that the direct control of a large number of HVAC components is difficult. In this work, HVAC setpoints are the control variables developed on top of a Direct Digital Control (DDC) system. A method that combines Lagrangian relaxation, neural networks, stochastic dynamic programming, and heuristics is developed to predict the system dynamics and uncontrollable load, and to optimize the setpoints. Numerical testing and prototype implementation results show that our method can effectively reduce total costs, manage uncertainties, and shed the load, is computationally efficient. Furthermore, it is significantly better than existing methods. Topic 2. Power Portfolio Optimization in Deregulated Electricity Markets with Risk Management. In a deregulated electric power system, multiple markets of different time scales exist with various power supply instruments. A load serving entity (LSE) has multiple choices from these instruments to meet its load obligations. In view of the large amount of power involved, the complex market structure, risks in such volatile markets, stringent constraints to be satisfied, and the long time horizon, a power portfolio optimization problem is of critical importance but difficulty for an LSE to serve the load, maximize its profit, and manage risks. In this topic, a mid-term power portfolio optimization problem with risk management is presented. Key instruments are considered, risk terms based on semi-variances of spot market transactions are introduced, and penalties on load obligation violations are added to the objective function to improve algorithm convergence and constraint satisfaction. To overcome the inseparability of the resulting problem, a surrogate optimization framework is developed enabling a decomposition and coordination approach. Numerical testing results show that our method effectively provides decisions for various instruments to maximize profit, manage risks, and is computationally efficient.

Managing simulation-based training: A framework for optimizing learning, cost, and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Noah Joseph

This study provides a management framework for optimizing training programs for learning, cost, and time when using simulation based training (SBT) and reality based training (RBT) as resources. Simulation is shown to be an effective means for implementing activity substitution as a way to reduce risk. The risk profile of 22 US Air Force vehicles are calculated, and the potential risk reduction is calculated under the assumption of perfect substitutability of RBT and SBT. Methods are subsequently developed to relax the assumption of perfect substitutability. The transfer effectiveness ratio (TER) concept is defined and modeled as a function of the quality of the simulator used, and the requirements of the activity trained. The Navy F/A-18 is then analyzed in a case study illustrating how learning can be maximized subject to constraints in cost and time, and also subject to the decision maker's preferences for the proportional and absolute use of simulation. Solution methods for optimizing multiple activities across shared resources are next provided. Finally, a simulation strategy including an operations planning program (OPP), an implementation program (IP), an acquisition program (AP), and a pedagogical research program (PRP) is detailed. The study provides the theoretical tools to understand how to leverage SBT, a case study demonstrating these tools' efficacy, and a set of policy recommendations to enable the US military to better utilize SBT in the future.

Learning in the workplace: Fostering resilience in disengaged youth.

PubMed

Deluca, Christopher; Hutchinson, Nancy L; Delugt, Jennifer S; Beyer, Wanda; Thornton, Antoinette; Versnel, Joan; Chin, Peter; Munby, Hugh

2010-01-01

International reports on school-to-work transition make it clear that worldwide youth are at-risk for educational disengagement and are three times as likely to be unemployed as their adult counterparts. Work-based education (WBE) is one of the most frequently recommended solutions for youth disengagement which suggests that WBE serves as a protective factor and encourages resilience in at-risk youth. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the experiences of two at-risk youth enrolled in WBE. Two 18-year old at-risk youth enrolled in WBE were chosen for study because they were learning in workplaces judged likely to promote resilience. Both had been disengaged from school prior to enrolling in WBE. Each multiple-perspective case study includes the perspective of the youth, the workplace employer, and the work-based educator. Data consisted of ethnographic observations and interviews conducted at the workplace, and with the teacher in the school. Each case study highlights how supportive adults and an at-risk youth engage in interactions that facilitate the emergence of resilience in the workplace. In these two cases, risk and resilience are context specific, suggesting that at-risk youth may require tailored workplace programs to meet their career development needs.

Prediction of Autism at 3 Years from Behavioural and Developmental Measures in High-Risk Infants: A Longitudinal Cross-Domain Classifier Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bussu, G.; Jones, E. J. H.; Charman, T.; Johnson, M. H.; Buitelaar, J. K.; Baron-Cohen, S.; Bedford, R.; Bolton, P.; Blasi, A.; Chandler, S.; Cheung, C.; Davies, K.; Elsabbagh, M.; Fernandes, J.; Gammer, I.; Garwood, H.; Gliga, T.; Guiraud, J.; Hudry, K.; Liew, M.; Lloyd-Fox, S.; Maris, H.; O'Hara, L.; Pasco, G.; Pickles, A.; Ribeiro, H.; Salomone, E.; Tucker, L.; Volein, A.

2018-01-01

We integrated multiple behavioural and developmental measures from multiple time-points using machine learning to improve early prediction of individual Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) outcome. We examined Mullen Scales of Early Learning, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, and early ASD symptoms between 8 and 36 months in high-risk siblings (HR; n…

GEMS Project: A Platform to Investigate Multiple Sclerosis Risk

PubMed Central

Xia, Zongqi; White, Charles C.; Owen, Emily K.; Von Korff, Alina; Clarkson, Sarah R.; McCabe, Cristin A.; Cimpean, Maria; Winn, Phoebe A.; Hoesing, Ashley; Steele, Sonya U.; Cortese, Irene C. M.; Chitnis, Tanuja; Weiner, Howard L.; Reich, Daniel S.; Chibnik, Lori B.; De Jager, Philip L.

2015-01-01

The Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis (GEMS) project establishes a platform to investigate the events leading to MS in at-risk individuals. It has recruited 2,632 first-degree relatives from across the USA. Using an integrated genetic and environmental risk score, we identified subjects with twice the MS risk when compared to the average family member, and we report an initial incidence rate in these subjects that is 30 times greater than that of sporadic MS. We discuss the feasibility of large-scale studies of asymptomatic at-risk subjects that leverage modern tools of subject recruitment to execute collaborative projects. PMID:26583565

Fall risk and incidence reduction in high risk individuals with multiple sclerosis: a pilot randomized control trial.

PubMed

Sosnoff, Jacob J; Moon, Yaejin; Wajda, Douglas A; Finlayson, Marcia L; McAuley, Edward; Peterson, Elizabeth W; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

2015-10-01

To determine the feasibility of three fall prevention programs delivered over 12 weeks among individuals with multiple sclerosis: (A) a home-based exercise program targeting physiological risk factors; (B) an educational program targeting behavioral risk factors; and (C) a combined exercise-and-education program targeting both factors. Randomized controlled trial. Home-based training with assessments at research laboratory. A total of 103 individuals inquired about the investigation. After screening, 37 individuals with multiple sclerosis who had fallen in the last year and ranged in age from 45-75 years volunteered for the investigation. A total of 34 participants completed postassessment following the 12-week intervention. Participants were randomly assigned into one of four conditions: (1) wait-list control (n = 9); (2) home-based exercise (n = 11); (3) education (n = 9); or (4) a combined exercise and education (n = 8) group. Before and after the 12-week interventions, participants underwent a fall risk assessment as determined by the physiological profile assessment and provided information on their fall prevention behaviors as indexed by the Falls Prevention Strategy Survey. Participants completed falls diaries during the three-months postintervention. A total of 34 participants completed postintervention testing. Procedures and processes were found to be feasible. Overall, fall risk scores were lower in the exercise groups (1.15 SD 1.31) compared with the non-exercise groups (2.04 SD 1.04) following the intervention (p < 0.01). There was no group difference in fall prevention behaviors (p > 0.05). Further examination of home-based exercise/education programs for reducing falls in individuals with multiple sclerosis is warranted. A total of 108 participants would be needed in a larger randomized controlled trial.ClinicalTrials.org #NCT01956227. © The Author(s) 2014.

Diagnosis-based Cost Groups in the Dutch Risk-equalization Model: Effects of Clustering Diagnoses and of Allowing Patients to be Classified into Multiple Risk-classes.

PubMed

Eijkenaar, Frank; van Vliet, René C J A; van Kleef, Richard C

2018-01-01

The risk-equalization (RE) model in the Dutch health insurance market has evolved to a sophisticated model containing direct proxies for health. However, it still has important imperfections, leaving incentives for risk selection. This paper focuses on refining an important health-based risk-adjuster in this model: the diagnosis-based costs groups (DCGs). The current (2017) DCGs are calibrated on "old" data of 2011/2012, are mutually exclusive, and are essentially clusters of about 200 diagnosis-groups ("dxgroups"). Hospital claims data (2013), administrative data (2014) on costs and risk-characteristics for the entire Dutch population (N≈16.9 million), and health survey data (2012, N≈387,000) are used. The survey data are used to identify subgroups of individuals in poor or in good health. The claims and administrative data are used to develop alternative DCG-modalities to examine the impact on individual-level and group-level fit of recalibrating the DCGs based on new data, of allowing patients to be classified in multiple DCGs, and of refraining from clustering. Recalibrating the DCGs and allowing enrolees to be classified into multiple DCGs lead to nontrivial improvements in individual-level and group-level fit (especially for cancer patients and people with comorbid conditions). The improvement resulting from refraining from clustering does not seem to justify the increase in model complexity this would entail. The performance of the sophisticated Dutch RE-model can be improved by allowing classification in multiple (clustered) DCGs and using new data. Irrespective of the modality used, however, various subgroups remain significantly undercompensated. Further improvement of the RE-model merits high priority.

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk over a 50-year period: Registry-based sibling study.

PubMed

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Benjaminsen, Espen; Celius, Elisabeth G; Dahl, Ole P; Kampman, Margitta T; Løken-Amsrud, Kristin I; Midgard, Rune; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Torkildsen, Øivind; Vatne, Anita; Grytten, Nina

2017-02-01

The conflicting results from studies on socioeconomic status (SES) and multiple sclerosis (MS) risk might be due to a change in the distribution of environmental exposures over time or to methodological limitations in previous research. To examine the association between SES and MS risk during 50 years. We included patients registered in Norwegian MS registries and prevalence studies born between 1930 and 1979, and identified their siblings and parents using the Norwegian Population Registry. Information on education was retrieved from the National Education Registry, categorized into four levels (primary, secondary, undergraduate and graduate) and compared in patients and siblings using conditional logistic regression. A total of 4494 MS patients and 9193 of their siblings were included in the analyses. Level of education was inversely associated with MS risk ( p trend < 0.001) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59-0.90) when comparing the highest and lowest levels. The effect estimates did not vary markedly between participants born before or after the median year of birth (1958), but we observed a significant effect modification by parental education ( p = 0.047). Level of education was inversely associated with MS risk, and the estimates were similar in the earliest and latest birth cohorts.

High- and low-risk profiles for the development of multiple sclerosis within 10 years after optic neuritis: experience of the optic neuritis treatment trial.

PubMed

Beck, Roy W; Trobe, Jonathan D; Moke, Pamela S; Gal, Robin L; Xing, Dongyuan; Bhatti, M Tariq; Brodsky, Michael C; Buckley, Edward G; Chrousos, Georgia A; Corbett, James; Eggenberger, Eric; Goodwin, James A; Katz, Barrett; Kaufman, David I; Keltner, John L; Kupersmith, Mark J; Miller, Neil R; Nazarian, Sarkis; Orengo-Nania, Silvia; Savino, Peter J; Shults, William T; Smith, Craig H; Wall, Michael

2003-07-01

To identify factors associated with a high and low risk of developing multiple sclerosis after an initial episode of optic neuritis. Three hundred eighty-eight patients who experienced acute optic neuritis between July 1, 1988, and June 30, 1991, were followed up prospectively for the development of multiple sclerosis. Consenting patients were reassessed after 10 to 13 years. The 10-year risk of multiple sclerosis was 38% (95% confidence interval, 33%-43%). Patients (160) who had 1 or more typical lesions on the baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan of the brain had a 56% risk; those with no lesions (191) had a 22% risk (P<.001, log rank test). Among the patients who had no lesions on MRI, male gender and optic disc swelling were associated with a lower risk of multiple sclerosis, as was the presence of the following atypical features for optic neuritis: no light perception vision; absence of pain; and ophthalmoscopic findings of severe optic disc edema, peripapillary hemorrhages, or retinal exudates. The 10-year risk of multiple sclerosis following an initial episode of acute optic neuritis is significantly higher if there is a single brain MRI lesion; higher numbers of lesions do not appreciably increase that risk. However, even when brain lesions are seen on MRI, more than 40% of the patients will not develop clinical multiple sclerosis after 10 years. In the absence of MRI lesions, certain demographic and clinical features seem to predict a very low likelihood of developing multiple sclerosis. This natural history information is a critical input for estimating a patient's 10-year multiple sclerosis risk and for weighing the benefit of initiating prophylactic treatment at the time of optic neuritis or other initial demyelinating events in the central nervous system.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

PubMed

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Multiple-time scales analysis of physiological time series under neural control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, C. K.; Hausdorff, J. M.; Havlin, S.; Mietus, J. E.; Stanley, H. E.; Goldberger, A. L.

1998-01-01

We discuss multiple-time scale properties of neurophysiological control mechanisms, using heart rate and gait regulation as model systems. We find that scaling exponents can be used as prognostic indicators. Furthermore, detection of more subtle degradation of scaling properties may provide a novel early warning system in subjects with a variety of pathologies including those at high risk of sudden death.

Pediatric magnet ingestions: the dark side of the force.

PubMed

Brown, Julie C; Otjen, Jeffrey P; Drugas, George T

2014-05-01

Pediatric magnet ingestions are increasing. Commercial availability of rare-earth magnets poses a serious health risk. This study defines incidence, characteristics, and management of ingestions over time. Cases were identified by searching radiology reports from June 2002 to December 2012 at a children's hospital and verified by chart and imaging review. Relative risk (RR) regressions determined changes in incidence and interventions over time. In all, 98% of ingestions occurred since 2006; 57% involved multiple magnets. Median age was 8 years (range 0 to 18); 0% of single and 56% of multiple ingestions required intervention. Compared with 2007 to 2009, ingestions increased from 2010 to 2012 (RR = 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 3.0). Intervention proportion was unchanged (RR = .94, 95% confidence interval .4 to 2.2). Small spherical magnets comprised 26.8% of ingestions since 2010; 86% involved multiple magnets and 47% required intervention. Pediatric magnet ingestions and interventions have increased. Multiple ingestions prompt more imaging and surgical interventions. Magnet safety standards are needed to decrease risk to children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple-endpoints gene alteration-based (MEGA) assay: A toxicogenomics approach for water quality assessment of wastewater effluents.

PubMed

Fukushima, Toshikazu; Hara-Yamamura, Hiroe; Nakashima, Koji; Tan, Lea Chua; Okabe, Satoshi

2017-12-01

Wastewater effluents contain a significant number of toxic contaminants, which, even at low concentrations, display a wide variety of toxic actions. In this study, we developed a multiple-endpoints gene alteration-based (MEGA) assay, a real-time PCR-based transcriptomic analysis, to assess the water quality of wastewater effluents for human health risk assessment and management. Twenty-one genes from the human hepatoblastoma cell line (HepG2), covering the basic health-relevant stress responses such as response to xenobiotics, genotoxicity, and cytotoxicity, were selected and incorporated into the MEGA assay. The genes related to the p53-mediated DNA damage response and cytochrome P450 were selected as markers for genotoxicity and response to xenobiotics, respectively. Additionally, the genes that were dose-dependently regulated by exposure to the wastewater effluents were chosen as markers for cytotoxicity. The alterations in the expression of an individual gene, induced by exposure to the wastewater effluents, were evaluated by real-time PCR and the results were validated by genotoxicity (e.g., comet assay) and cell-based cytotoxicity tests. In summary, the MEGA assay is a real-time PCR-based assay that targets cellular responses to contaminants present in wastewater effluents at the transcriptional level; it is rapid, cost-effective, and high-throughput and can thus complement any chemical analysis for water quality assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transferability and robustness of real-time freeway crash risk assessment.

PubMed

Shew, Cameron; Pande, Anurag; Nuworsoo, Cornelius

2013-09-01

This study examines the data from single loop detectors on northbound (NB) US-101 in San Jose, California to estimate real-time crash risk assessment models. The classification tree and neural network based crash risk assessment models developed with data from NB US-101 are applied to data from the same freeway, as well as to the data from nearby segments of the SB US-101, NB I-880, and SB I-880 corridors. The performance of crash risk assessment models on these nearby segments is the focus of this research. The model applications show that it is in fact possible to use the same model for multiple freeways, as the underlying relationships between traffic data and crash risk remain similar. The framework provided here may be helpful to authorities for freeway segments with newly installed traffic surveillance apparatuses, since the real-time crash risk assessment models from nearby freeways with existing infrastructure would be able to provide a reasonable estimate of crash risk. The robustness of the model output is also assessed by location, time of day, and day of week. The analysis shows that on some locations the models may require further learning due to higher than expected false positive (e.g., the I-680/I-280 interchange on US-101 NB) or false negative rates. The approach for post-processing the results from the model provides ideas to refine the model prior to or during the implementation. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

School dropout prevention: what arts-based community and out-of-school-time programs can contribute.

PubMed

Charmaraman, Linda; Hall, Georgia

2011-01-01

Out-of-school-time programs, especially arts-based programs, can be critical players in a community's efforts to prevent school dropout. This research review suggests the following approaches for arts-based programs: (1) recruitment and retention of target populations with multiple risk factors; (2) long-term skill development that engages youth behaviorally, emotionally, and academically rather than a drop-in culture; (3) an emphasis on the critical ingredient of real-world applications through performance; (4) staff development and mentoring; (5) a strategic community-level plan for dropout prevention; (6) and program content reframed toward competencies that underlie better school performance and prosocial behavior, such as communication, initiative, problem solving, motivation, and self-efficacy. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

Managing risks of noncancer health effects at hazardous waste sites: A case study using the Reference Concentration (RfC) of trichloroethylene (TCE).

PubMed

Dourson, Michael L; Gadagbui, Bernard K; Thompson, Rod B; Pfau, Edward J; Lowe, John

2016-10-01

A method for determining a safety range for non-cancer risks is proposed, similar in concept to the range used for cancer in the management of waste sites. This safety range brings transparency to the chemical specific Reference Dose or Concentration by replacing their "order of magnitude" definitions with a scientifically-based range. EPA's multiple RfCs for trichloroethylene (TCE) were evaluated as a case study. For TCE, a multi-endpoint safety range was judged to be 3 μg/m(3) to 30 μg/m,(3) based on a review of kidney effects found in NTP (1988), thymus effects found in Keil et al. (2009) and cardiac effects found in the Johnson et al. (2003) study. This multi-endpoint safety range is derived from studies for which the appropriate averaging time corresponds to different exposure durations, and, therefore, can be applied to both long- and short-term exposures with appropriate consideration of exposure averaging times. For shorter-term exposures, averaging time should be based on the time of cardiac development in humans during fetal growth, an average of approximately 20-25 days. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple Risks and Educational Well Being: A Population-Based Investigation of Threats to Early School Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, Heather L.; Fantuzzo, John W.

2009-01-01

The current research study used a developmental-epidemiological approach to examine the prevalence and impact of multiple risks on educational outcomes for an entire population of second grade children in a low-income, urban public school system. The Kids Integrated Data System (KIDS) provided information about children's entire histories of…

Effects of Comprehensive, Multiple High-Risk Behaviors Prevention Program on High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collier, Crystal

2013-01-01

The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the effect of a multiple high-risk behaviors prevention program applied comprehensively throughout an entire school-system involving universal, selective, and indicated levels of students at a local private high school during a 4-year period. The prevention program was created based upon the…

A Risk-based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health

PubMed Central

Zafra-Cabeza, Ascensión; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.; Ridao, Miguel A.; Camacho, Eduardo F.

2010-01-01

This paper examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this paper can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:21643450

Partner aggression in high-risk families from birth to age 3 years: associations with harsh parenting and child maladjustment.

PubMed

Graham, Alice M; Kim, Hyoun K; Fisher, Philip A

2012-02-01

Aggression between partners represents a potential guiding force in family dynamics. However, research examining the influence of partner aggression (physically and psychologically aggressive acts by both partners) on harsh parenting and young child adjustment has been limited by a frequent focus on low-risk samples and by the examination of partner aggression at a single time point. Especially in the context of multiple risk factors and around transitions such as childbirth, partner aggression might be better understood as a dynamic process. In the present study, longitudinal trajectories of partner aggression from birth to age 3 years in a large, high-risk, and ethnically diverse sample (N = 461) were examined. Specific risk factors were tested as predictors of aggression over time, and the longitudinal effects of partner aggression on maternal harsh parenting and child maladjustment were examined. Partner aggression decreased over time, with higher maternal depression and lower maternal age predicting greater decreases in partner aggression. While taking into account contextual and psychosocial risk factors, higher partner aggression measured at birth and a smaller decrease over time independently predicted higher levels of maternal harsh parenting at age 3 years. Initial level of partner aggression and change over time predicted child maladjustment indirectly (via maternal harsh parenting). The implications of understanding change in partner aggression over time as a path to harsh parenting and young children's maladjustment in the context of multiple risk factors are discussed.

Partner Aggression in High-Risk Families From Birth to Age 3: Associations With Harsh Parenting and Child Maladjustment

PubMed Central

Graham, Alice M.; Kim, Hyoun K.; Fisher, Philip A.

2012-01-01

Aggression between partners represents a potential guiding force in family dynamics. However, research examining the influence of partner aggression (physically and psychologically aggressive acts by both partners) on harsh parenting and young child adjustment has been limited by a frequent focus on low risk samples and by the examination of partner aggression at a single time point. Especially in the context of multiple risk factors and around transitions such as childbirth, partner aggression might be better understood as a dynamic process. In the present study, longitudinal trajectories of partner aggression from birth to age 3 years in a large, high-risk, and ethnically diverse sample (N = 461) were examined. Specific risk factors were tested as predictors of aggression over time, and the longitudinal effects of partner aggression on maternal harsh parenting and child maladjustment were examined. Partner aggression decreased over time, with higher maternal depression and lower maternal age predicting greater decreases in partner aggression. While taking into account contextual and psychosocial risk factors, higher partner aggression measured at birth and a smaller decrease over time independently predicted higher levels of maternal harsh parenting at age 3 years. Initial level of partner aggression and change over time predicted child maladjustment indirectly (via maternal harsh parenting). The implications of understanding change in partner aggression over time as a path to harsh parenting and young children's maladjustment in the context of multiple risk factors are discussed. PMID:22201248

Operationalization and Validation of the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) Fall Risk Algorithm in a Nationally Representative Sample

PubMed Central

Lohman, Matthew C.; Crow, Rebecca S.; DiMilia, Peter R.; Nicklett, Emily J.; Bruce, Martha L.; Batsis, John A.

2017-01-01

Background Preventing falls and fall-related injuries among older adults is a public health priority. The Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) tool was developed to promote fall risk screening and encourage coordination between clinical and community-based fall prevention resources; however, little is known about the tool’s predictive validity or adaptability to survey data. Methods Data from five annual rounds (2011–2015) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a representative cohort of adults age 65 and older in the US. Analytic sample respondents (n=7,392) were categorized at baseline as having low, moderate, or high fall risk according to the STEADI algorithm adapted for use with NHATS data. Logistic mixed-effects regression was used to estimate the association between baseline fall risk and subsequent falls and mortality. Analyses incorporated complex sampling and weighting elements to permit inferences at a national level. Results Participants classified as having moderate and high fall risk had 2.62 (95% CI: 2.29, 2.99) and 4.76 (95% CI: 3.51, 6.47) times greater odds of falling during follow-up compared to those with low risk, respectively, controlling for sociodemographic and health related risk factors for falls. High fall risk was also associated with greater likelihood of falling multiple times annually but not with greater risk of mortality. Conclusion The adapted STEADI clinical fall risk screening tool is a valid measure for predicting future fall risk using survey cohort data. Further efforts to standardize screening for fall risk and to coordinate between clinical and community-based fall prevention initiatives are warranted. PMID:28947669

Exposure to child abuse and risk for mental health problems in women.

PubMed

Schneider, Renee; Baumrind, Nikki; Kimerling, Rachel

2007-01-01

Risk for adult mental health problems associated with child sexual, physical, or emotional abuse and multiple types of child abuse was examined. Logistic regression analyses were used to test study hypotheses in a population-based sample of women (N = 3,936). As expected, child sexual, physical, and emotional abuse were independently associated with increased risk for mental health problems. History of multiple types of child abuse was also associated with elevated risk for mental health problems. In particular, exposure to all three types of child abuse was linked to a 23-fold increase in risk for probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Findings underscore relations between child emotional abuse and adult mental health problems and highlight the need for mental health services for survivors of multiple types of child abuse.

Neuropsychological status at seizure onset in children

PubMed Central

Fastenau, P S.; Johnson, C S.; Perkins, S M.; Byars, A W.; deGrauw, T J.; Austin, J K.; Dunn, D W.

2009-01-01

Objective: This large, prospective, community-based study characterized neuropsychological functioning and academic achievement at the time of the first recognized seizure and identified risk factors for cognitive deficits. Methods: We compared 282 children (ages 6–14 years, IQ ≥70) with a first recognized seizure to 147 healthy siblings on a battery of well-standardized and widely used neuropsychological and academic achievement tests and examined relationships with demographic and clinical variables. Results: In this intellectually normal cohort, 27% with just one seizure and up to 40% of those with risk factors exhibited neuropsychological deficits at or near onset. Risk factors associated with neuropsychological deficits included multiple seizures (i.e., second unprovoked seizure; odds ratio [OR] = 1.96), use of antiepileptic drugs (OR = 2.27), symptomatic/cryptogenic etiology (OR = 2.15), and epileptiform activity on the initial EEG (OR = 1.90); a child with all 4 risks is 3.00 times more likely than healthy siblings to experience neuropsychological deficits by the first clinic visit. Absence epilepsy carried increased odds for neuropsychological impairment (OR = 2.00). Conclusions: A subgroup of intellectually normal children with seizures showed neuropsychological deficits at onset. Academic achievement was unaffected, suggesting that there is a window early in the disorder for intervention to ameliorate the impact on school performance. Therefore, the risk factors identified here (especially if multiple risks are present) warrant swift referral for neuropsychological evaluation early in the course of the condition. GLOSSARY AED = antiepileptic drug; ANOVA = analysis of variance; CELF = Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals; CI = confidence interval; CTOPP = Comprehensive Test of Phonological Processing; OR = odds ratio; PURS = prior unrecognized seizure; WCST = Wisconsin Card Sorting Test; WRAML = Wide Range Assessment of Memory and Learning. PMID:19675309

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive processing speed is related to fall frequency in older adults with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Sosnoff, Jacob J; Balantrapu, Swathi; Pilutti, Lara A; Sandroff, Brian M; Morrison, Steven; Motl, Robert W

2013-08-01

To examine mobility, balance, fall risk, and cognition in older adults with multiple sclerosis (MS) as a function of fall frequency. Retrospective, cross-sectional design. University research laboratory. Community-dwelling persons with MS (N=27) aged between 50 and 75 years were divided into 2 groups-single-time (n=11) and recurrent (n=16; >2 falls/12 mo) fallers-on the basis of fall history. Not applicable. Mobility was assessed using a variety of measures including Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale-12, walking speed (Timed 25-Foot Walk test), endurance (6-Minute Walk test), and functional mobility (Timed Up and Go test). Balance was assessed with the Berg Balance Scale, posturography, and self-reported balance confidence. Fall risk was assessed with the Physiological Profile Assessment. Cognitive processing speed was quantified with the Symbol Digit Modalities Test and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test. Recurrent fallers had slower cognitive processing speed than single-time fallers (P ≤.01). There was no difference in mobility, balance, or fall risk between recurrent and single-time fallers (P>.05). Results indicated that cognitive processing speed is associated with fall frequency and may have implications for fall prevention strategies targeting recurrent fallers with MS. Copyright © 2013 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b

PubMed Central

Cassano-Piché, A; Fan, M; Sabovitch, S; Masino, C; Easty, AC

2012-01-01

Background Minimal research has been conducted into the potential patient safety issues related to administering multiple intravenous (IV) infusions to a single patient. Previous research has highlighted that there are a number of related safety risks. In Phase 1a of this study, an analysis of 2 national incident-reporting databases (Institute for Safe Medical Practices Canada and United States Food and Drug Administration MAUDE) found that a high percentage of incidents associated with the administration of multiple IV infusions resulted in patient harm. Objectives The primary objectives of Phase 1b of this study were to identify safety issues with the potential to cause patient harm stemming from the administration of multiple IV infusions; and to identify how nurses are being educated on key principles required to safely administer multiple IV infusions. Data Sources and Review Methods A field study was conducted at 12 hospital clinical units (sites) across Ontario, and telephone interviews were conducted with program coordinators or instructors from both the Ontario baccalaureate nursing degree programs and the Ontario postgraduate Critical Care Nursing Certificate programs. Data were analyzed using Rasmussen’s 1997 Risk Management Framework and a Health Care Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. Results Twenty-two primary patient safety issues were identified with the potential to directly cause patient harm. Seventeen of these (critical issues) were categorized into 6 themes. A cause-consequence tree was established to outline all possible contributing factors for each critical issue. Clinical recommendations were identified for immediate distribution to, and implementation by, Ontario hospitals. Future investigation efforts were planned for Phase 2 of the study. Limitations This exploratory field study identifies the potential for errors, but does not describe the direct observation of such errors, except in a few cases where errors were observed. Not all issues are known in advance, and the frequency of errors is too low to be observed in the time allotted and with the limited sample of observations. Conclusions The administration of multiple IV infusions to a single patient is a complex task with many potential associated patient safety risks. Improvements to infusion and infusion-related technology, education standards, clinical best practice guidelines, hospital policies, and unit work practices are required to reduce the risk potential. This report makes several recommendations to Ontario hospitals so that they can develop an awareness of the issues highlighted in this report and minimize some of the risks. Further investigation of mitigating strategies is required and will be undertaken in Phase 2 of this research. Plain Language Summary Patients, particularly in critical care environments, often require multiple intravenous (IV) medications via large volumetric or syringe infusion pumps. The infusion of multiple IV medications is not without risk; unintended errors during these complex procedures have resulted in patient harm. However, the range of associated risks and the factors contributing to these risks are not well understood. Health Quality Ontario’s Ontario Health Technology Advisory Committee commissioned the Health Technology Safety Research Team at the University Health Network to conduct a multi-phase study to identify and mitigate the risks associated with multiple IV infusions. Some of the questions addressed by the team were as follows: What is needed to reduce the risk of errors for individuals who are receiving a lot of medications? What strategies work best? The initial report, Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1a: Situation Scan Summary Report, summarizes the interim findings based on a literature review, an incident database review, and a technology scan. The Health Technology Safety Research Team worked in close collaboration with the Institute for Safe Medication Practices Canada on an exploratory study to understand the risks associated with multiple IV infusions and the degree to which nurses are educated to help mitigate them. The current report, Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b: Practice and Training Scan, presents the findings of a field study of 12 hospital clinical units across Ontario, as well as 13 interviews with educators from baccalaureate-level nursing degree programs and postgraduate Critical Care Nursing Certificate programs. It makes 9 recommendations that emphasize best practices for the administration of multiple IV infusions and pertain to secondary infusions, line identification, line set-up and removal, and administering IV bolus medications. The Health Technology Safety Research Team has also produced an associated report for hospitals entitled Mitigating the Risks Associated With Multiple IV Infusions: Recommendations Based on a Field Study of Twelve Ontario Hospitals, which highlights the 9 interim recommendations and provides a brief rationale for each one. PMID:23074426

Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

2017-12-01

Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

Reverse causality behind the association between reproductive history and MS.

PubMed

Hedström, A K; Hillert, J; Olsson, T; Alfredsson, L

2014-04-01

Possible associations between childbearing patterns and multiple sclerosis (MS) risk have been studied for a long time, with conflicting results. We aimed to investigate the influence of reproductive history on MS risk. Using a Swedish population-based case-control study involving incident cases of MS (1798 cases, 3907 controls), we calculated odds ratios (OR) for MS comparing parents with childless subjects together with 95% confidence intervals (CI) employing logistic regression. Overall, there was an association between having children and reduced MS risk among both sexes. Subjects who had become parents within five years prior to the index year had a substantially reduced risk of developing MS (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.8 for women, and OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.6 for men). No association between having children and MS risk was observed when more than 10 years had passed since the birth of the last child. We found no association between increasing offspring number and MS risk. The observed association between reproductive history and MS risk is restricted to a limited time period preceding the index year, with similar findings in both sexes, which contradicts biologic impact of pregnancy on MS risk and argues in favor of reverse causality, i.e. that fecundity is affected by yet-undiagnosed MS.

Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonnafous, L.

2017-12-01

Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

Illumina Unamplified Indexed Library Construction: An Automated Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hack, Christopher A.; Sczyrba, Alexander; Cheng, Jan-Fang

Manual library construction is a limiting factor in Illumina sequencing. Constructing libraries by hand is costly, time-consuming, low-throughput, and ergonomically hazardous, and constructing multiple libraries introduces risk of library failure due to pipetting errors. The ability to construct multiple libraries simultaneously in automated fashion represents significant cost and time savings. Here we present a strategy to construct up to 96 unamplified indexed libraries using Illumina TruSeq reagents and a Biomek FX robotic platform. We also present data to indicate that this library construction method has little or no risk of cross-contamination between samples.

The Effects of Gain- versus Loss-Framed Messages Following Health Risk Information on Physical Activity in Individuals With Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Lithopoulos, Alexander; Bassett-Gunter, Rebecca L; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A; Latimer-Cheung, Amy E

2017-06-01

Few people with multiple sclerosis engage in physical activity. Messaging interventions may motivate more physical activity among these individuals. The purpose of this online study was to evaluate an intervention presenting participants with multiple sclerosis (N = 237) with risk information (i.e., information demonstrating people with multiple sclerosis are more likely to experience certain health issues) or no risk information followed by gain- or loss-framed physical activity messages. Participants completed questionnaires on Days 1, 6, and 28 and received information material on Days 2-5. The dependent variables were as follows: physical activity intentions and behavior, response and task efficacy, perceived threat (i.e., perception of threat to health issues relevant to people with multiple sclerosis), and avoidance (i.e., avoiding thinking about/doing something about the health issues presented in the messages). Analyses indicated physical activity and response efficacy increased over time. Also, participants receiving risk information had higher levels of physical activity and perceived threat. However, manipulation checks showed no differences between participants regarding perceptions of risk information or gain/loss-framed messages. Despite the lack of impact of the framing intervention, this study suggests that a brief informational intervention can positively influence physical activity and certain correlates of physical activity among people with multiple sclerosis.

Making assessments while taking repeated risks: a pattern of multiple response pathways.

PubMed

Pleskac, Timothy J; Wershbale, Avishai

2014-02-01

Beyond simply a decision process, repeated risky decisions also require a number of cognitive processes including learning, search and exploration, and attention. In this article, we examine how multiple response pathways develop over repeated risky decisions. Using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a case study, we show that 2 different response pathways emerge over the course of the task. The assessment pathway is a slower, more controlled pathway where participants deliberate over taking a risk. The 2nd pathway is a faster, more automatic process where no deliberation occurs. Results imply the slower assessment pathway is taken as choice conflict increases and that the faster automatic response is a learned response. Based on these results, we modify an existing formal cognitive model of decision making during the BART to account for these dual response pathways. The slower more deliberative response process is modeled with a sequential sampling process where evidence is accumulated to a threshold, while the other response is given automatically. We show that adolescents with conduct disorder and substance use disorder symptoms not only evaluate risks differently during the BART but also differ in the rate at which they develop the more automatic response. More broadly, our results suggest cognitive models of judgment decision making need to transition from treating observed decisions as the result of a single response pathway to the result of multiple response pathways that change and develop over time.

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2003-01-01

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

Using multiple decrement models to estimate risk and morbidity from specific AIDS illnesses. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS).

PubMed

Hoover, D R; Peng, Y; Saah, A J; Detels, R R; Day, R S; Phair, J P

A simple non-parametric approach is developed to simultaneously estimate net incidence and morbidity time from specific AIDS illnesses in populations at high risk for death from these illnesses and other causes. The disease-death process has four-stages that can be recast as two sandwiching three-state multiple decrement processes. Non-parametric estimation of net incidence and morbidity time with error bounds are achieved from these sandwiching models through modification of methods from Aalen and Greenwood, and bootstrapping. An application to immunosuppressed HIV-1 infected homosexual men reveals that cytomegalovirus disease, Kaposi's sarcoma and Pneumocystis pneumonia are likely to occur and cause significant morbidity time.

Risk of multiple myeloma following medication use and medical conditions: a case-control study in Connecticut women.

PubMed

Landgren, Ola; Zhang, Yawei; Zahm, Sheila Hoar; Inskip, Peter; Zheng, Tongzhang; Baris, Dalsu

2006-12-01

Certain commonly used drugs and medical conditions characterized by chronic immune dysfunction and/or antigen stimulation have been suggested to affect important pathways in multiple myeloma tumor cell growth and survival. We conducted a population-based case-control study to investigate the role of medical history in the etiology of multiple myeloma among Connecticut women. A total of 179 incident multiple myeloma cases (21-84 years, diagnosed 1996-2002) and 691 population-based controls was included in this study. Information on medical conditions, medications, and medical radiation was obtained by in-person interviews. We calculated odds ratios (OR) as measures of relative risks using logistic regression models. A reduced multiple myeloma risk was found among women who had used antilipid statin therapy [OR, 0.4; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.2-0.8] or estrogen replacement therapy (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.99) or who had a medical history of allergy (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7), scarlet fever (OR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9), or bursitis (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7). An increased risk of multiple myeloma was found among women who used prednisone (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 1.8-14.4), insulin (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.1-9.0), or gout medication (OR, 6.7; 95% CI, 1.2-38.0). If our results are confirmed, mechanistic studies examining how prior use of insulin, prednisone, and, perhaps, gout medication might promote increased occurrence of multiple myeloma and how antilipid statins, estrogen replacement therapy, and certain medical conditions might protect against multiple myeloma may provide insights to the as yet unknown etiology of multiple myeloma.

Forecasting the Relative and Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on At-risk Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

Vitals (observed vital rates), Movement, Ranges, Barriers (barrier interactions), Stochasticity (a time series of stochasticity indices...Simulation Viewer are themselves stochastic . They can change each time it is run. B. 196 Analysis If multiple Census events are present in the life...30-year period. A monthly time series was generated for the 20th-century using monthly anomalies for temperature, precipitation, and percent

Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression: moving from single to multiple risk marker response scores.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; Mol, Peter G M; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2015-11-01

There is increased interest in developing surrogate endpoints for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression, as the established clinically meaningful endpoint end-stage renal disease requires large and lengthy trials to assess drug efficacy. We describe recent developments in the search for novel surrogate endpoints. Declines in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30% or 40% and albuminuria have been proposed as surrogates for end-stage renal disease. However, changes in eGFR or albuminuria may not be valid under all circumstances as drugs always have effects on multiple renal risk markers. Changes in each of these other 'off-target' risk markers can alter renal risk (either beneficially or adversely), and can thereby confound the relationship between surrogates that are based on single risk markers and renal outcome. Risk algorithms that integrate the short-term drug effects on multiple risk markers to predict drug effects on hard renal outcomes may therefore be more accurate. The validity of these risk algorithms is currently investigated. Given that drugs affect multiple renal risk markers, risk scores that integrate these effects are a promising alternative to using eGFR decline or albuminuria. Proper validation is required before these risk scores can be implemented.

A systematic review of effective interventions for reducing multiple health risk behaviors in adolescence.

PubMed

Hale, Daniel R; Fitzgerald-Yau, Natasha; Viner, Russell Mark

2014-05-01

We systematically searched 9 biomedical and social science databases (1980-2012) for primary and secondary interventions that prevented or reduced 2 or more adolescent health risk behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol use, illicit drug use, risky sexual behavior, aggressive acts). We identified 44 randomized controlled trials of universal or selective interventions and were effective for multiple health risk behaviors. Most were school based, conducted in the United States, and effective for multiple forms of substance use. Effects were small, in line with findings for other universal prevention programs. In some studies, effects for more than 1 health risk behavior only emerged at long-term follow-up. Integrated prevention programs are feasible and effective and may be more efficient than discrete prevention strategies.

Risk of fetal death associated with maternal drug dependence and placental abruption: a population-based study.

PubMed

McDonald, Sarah D; Vermeulen, Marian J; Ray, Joel G

2007-07-01

Substance use in pregnancy is associated with placental abruption, but the risk of fetal death independent of abruption remains undetermined. Our objective was to examine the effect of maternal drug dependence on placental abruption and on fetal death in association with abruption and independent of it. To examine placental abruption and fetal death, we performed a retrospective population-based study of 1 854 463 consecutive deliveries of liveborn and stillborn infants occurring between January 1, 1995 and March 31, 2001, using the Canadian Institute for Health Information Discharge Abstract Database. Maternal drug dependence was associated with a tripling of the risk of placental abruption in singleton pregnancies (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.6-3.7), but not in multiple gestations (adjusted OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.12-6.4). Maternal drug dependence was associated with an increased risk of fetal death independent of abruption (adjusted OR 1.6: 95% CI 1.1-2.2) in singleton pregnancies, but not in multiples. Risk of fetal death was increased with placental abruption in both singleton and multiple gestations, even after controlling for drug dependence (adjusted OR 11.4 in singleton pregnancy; 95% CI 10.6-12.2, and 3.4 in multiple pregnancy; 95% CI 2.4-4.9). Maternal drug use is associated with an increased risk of intrauterine fetal death independent of placental abruption. In singleton pregnancies, maternal drug dependence is associated with an increased risk of placental abruption.

Anthropometric characteristics and risk of multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Blair, Cindy K; Cerhan, James R; Folsom, Aaron R; Ross, Julie A

2005-09-01

Few studies have examined obesity and risk for multiple myeloma, and the results are inconsistent. Laboratory evidence suggests mechanisms through which obesity could influence carcinogenesis of this hematopoietic malignancy. We examined the association between anthropometric characteristics and incident multiple myeloma in a prospective, population-based sample of 37,083 postmenopausal women. In 1986, the women completed a mailed questionnaire that included self-report of height and weight, and friend measurement of waist and hip circumferences. During 16 years of follow up, 95 cases of multiple myeloma were identified through linkage to the Iowa Cancer Registry. In an age-adjusted model, women in the highest category of several anthropometric measurements compared with the lowest category were at increased risk of developing multiple myeloma. For body mass index (kg/m), the rate ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.5 (0.92-2.6); for weight, 1.9 (1.1-3.4); for waist circumference, 2.0 (1.1-3.5); and for hip circumference, 1.8 (1.0-3.0). Greater adiposity may increase the risk of multiple myeloma.

Application of a Pharmacokinetic Model of Metformin Clearance in a Population with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

PubMed Central

Ceacareanu, Alice C.; Brown, Geoffrey W.; Moussa, Hoda A.; Wintrob, Zachary A. P.

2018-01-01

Objective: We aimed to estimate the metformin-associated lactic acidosis (MALA) risk by assessing retrospectively the renal clearance variability and applying a pharmacokinetic (PK) model of metformin clearance in a population diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods: All adults with preexisting DM and newly diagnosed AML at Roswell Park Cancer Institute were reviewed (January 2003–December 2010, n = 78). Creatinine clearance (CrCl) and total body weight distributions were used in a two-compartment PK model adapted for multiple dosing and modified to account for actual intra- and inter-individual variability. Based on this renal function variability evidence, 1000 PK profiles were simulated for multiple metformin regimens with the resultant PK profiles being assessed for safe CrCl thresholds. Findings: Metformin 500 mg up to three times daily was safe for all simulated profiles with CrCl ≥25 mL/min. Furthermore, the estimated overall MALA risk was below 10%, remaining under 5% for 500 mg given once daily. CrCl ≥65.25 mL/min was safe for administration in any of the tested regimens (500 mg or 850 mg up to three times daily or 1000 mg up to twice daily). Conclusion: PK simulation-guided prescribing can maximize metformin's beneficial effects on cancer outcomes while minimizing MALA risk. PMID:29755998

Periprosthetic joint infection: are patients with multiple prosthetic joints at risk?

PubMed

Jafari, S Mehdi; Casper, David S; Restrepo, Camilo; Zmistowski, Benjamin; Parvizi, Javad; Sharkey, Peter F

2012-06-01

Patients who present with a periprosthetic joint infection in a single joint may have multiple prosthetic joints. The risk of these patients developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint is unknown. Our purposes were (1) to identify the risk of developing a subsequent infection in another prosthetic joint and (2) to describe the time span and organism profile to the second prosthetic infection. We retrospectively identified 55 patients with periprosthetic joint infection who had another prosthetic joint in place at the time of presentation. Of the 55 patients, 11 (20%) developed a periprosthetic joint infection in a second joint. The type of organism was the same as the first infection in 4 (36%) of 11 patients. The time to developing a second infection averaged 2.0 years (range, 0-6.9 years). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A simple test of choice stepping reaction time for assessing fall risk in people with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Tijsma, Mylou; Vister, Eva; Hoang, Phu; Lord, Stephen R

2017-03-01

Purpose To determine (a) the discriminant validity for established fall risk factors and (b) the predictive validity for falls of a simple test of choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Method People with MS (n = 210, 21-74y) performed the CSRT, sensorimotor, balance and neuropsychological tests in a single session. They were then followed up for falls using monthly fall diaries for 6 months. Results The CSRT test had excellent discriminant validity with respect to established fall risk factors. Frequent fallers (≥3 falls) performed significantly worse in the CSRT test than non-frequent fallers (0-2 falls). With the odds of suffering frequent falls increasing 69% with each SD increase in CSRT (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.27-2.26, p = <0.001). In regression analysis, CSRT was best explained by sway, time to complete the 9-Hole Peg test, knee extension strength of the weaker leg, proprioception and the time to complete the Trails B test (multiple R 2   =   0.449, p < 0.001). Conclusions A simple low tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful in documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions. Implications for rehabilitation Good choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) is required for maintaining balance. A simple low-tech CSRT test has excellent discriminative and predictive validity in relation to falls in people with MS. This test may prove useful documenting longitudinal changes in fall risk in relation to MS disease progression and effects of interventions.

Aggression at Age 5 as a Function of Prenatal Exposure to Cocaine, Gender, and Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Bendersky, Margaret; Bennett, David; Lewis, Michael

2006-01-01

Objective To examine childhood aggression at age 5 in a multiple risk model that includes cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and gender as predictors. Methods Aggression was assessed in 206 children by using multiple methods including teacher report, parent report, child’s response to hypothetical provocations, and child’s observed behavior. Also examined was a composite score that reflected high aggression across contexts. Results Multiple regression analyses indicated that a significant amount of variance in each of the aggression measures and the composite was explained by the predictors. The variables that were independently related differed depending on the outcome. Cocaine exposure, gender, and environmental risk were all related to the composite aggression score. Conclusions Cocaine exposure, being male, and a high-risk environment were all predictive of aggressive behavior at 5 years. It is this group of exposed boys at high environmental risk that is most likely to show continued aggression over time. PMID:15827351

q-Gaussian distributions and multiplicative stochastic processes for analysis of multiple financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Aki-Hiro

2010-12-01

This study considers q-Gaussian distributions and stochastic differential equations with both multiplicative and additive noises. In the M-dimensional case a q-Gaussian distribution can be theoretically derived as a stationary probability distribution of the multiplicative stochastic differential equation with both mutually independent multiplicative and additive noises. By using the proposed stochastic differential equation a method to evaluate a default probability under a given risk buffer is proposed.

HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female transgender people in Nepal.

PubMed

Bhatta, Dharma Nand

2014-05-01

Transgender women are a vulnerable and key risk group for HIV, and most research has shown an increased frequency of HIV infection among this minority population. This study examined the prevalence of HIV-related sexual risk behaviors and the socio-demographic correlates with HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female (MtF) transgender persons. Data were collected from a sample of 232 individuals through venue-based and snowball sampling and face-to-face interviews. The HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among the MtF transgender persons were: sex without using a condom (48.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 41.8-54.8), unprotected anal sex (68.1%; 95% CI 62.0-74.2), and unprotected sex with multiple partners (88.4%; 95% CI 84.3-92.5). Statistically significant differences were found for age, income, education, alcohol habit, and sex with more than two partners per day for these three different HIV-related sexual risk behaviors. MtF transgender persons with a secondary or higher level of education were three times (OR 2.93) more likely to have unprotected sex with multiple partners compared to those with a primary level or no education. Age, education, income, frequency of daily sexual contact, and an alcohol habit remain significant with regard to HIV-related sexual risk behavior. There is an urgent need for programs and interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviors in this minority population. Copyright © 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le Moigne, Jacqueline; Dabney, Philip; de Weck, Olivier; Foreman, Veronica; Grogan, Paul; Holland, Matthew; Hughes, Steven; Nag, Sreeja

2016-01-01

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time.This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance.TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

PubMed Central

Chahine, Teresa; Schultz, Bradley D.; Zartarian, Valerie G.; Xue, Jianping; Subramanian, SV; Levy, Jonathan I.

2011-01-01

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. PMID:22016710

Sequence analysis of human rhinovirus aspirated from the nasopharynx of patients with relapsing-remitting MS.

PubMed

Kneider, M; Bergström, T; Gustafsson, C; Nenonen, N; Ahlgren, C; Nilsson, S; Andersen, O

2009-04-01

Upper respiratory infections were reported to trigger multiple sclerosis relapses. A relationship between picornavirus infections and MS relapses was recently reported. To evaluate whether human rhinovirus is associated with multiple sclerosis relapses and whether any particular strain is predominant. Nasopharyngeal fluid was aspirated from 36 multiple sclerosis patients at pre-defined critical time points. Reverse-transcriptase-PCR was performed to detect human rhinovirus-RNA. Positive amplicons were sequenced. We found that rhinovirus RNA was present in 17/40 (43%) of specimens obtained at the onset of a URTI in 19 patients, in 1/21 specimens during convalescence after URTI in 14 patients, in 0/6 specimens obtained in 5 patients on average a week after the onset of an "at risk" relapse, occurring within a window in time from one week before to three weeks after an infection, and in 0/17 specimens obtained after the onset of a "not at risk" relapse not associated with any infection in 12 patients. Fifteen specimens from healthy control persons not associated with URTI were negative. The frequency of HRV presence in URTI was similar to that reported for community infections. Eight amplicons from patients represented 5 different HRV strains. We were unable to reproduce previous findings of association between HRV infections and multiple sclerosis relapses. HRV was not present in nasopharyngeal aspirates obtained during "at risk" or "not at risk" relapses. Sequencing of HRV obtained from patients during URTI did not reveal any strain with predominance in multiple sclerosis.

Mobility among youth in Rakai, Uganda: Trends, characteristics, and associations with behavioural risk factors for HIV

PubMed Central

Schuyler, Ashley C.; Edelstein, Zoe R.; Mathur, Sanyukta; Sekasanvu, Joseph; Nalugoda, Fred; Gray, Ronald; Wawer, Maria J.; Serwadda, David M.; Santelli, John S.

2015-01-01

Mobility, including migration and travel, influences risk of HIV. This study examined time trends and characteristics among mobile youth (15-24 years) in rural Uganda, and the relationship between mobility and risk factors for HIV. We used data from an annual household census and population-based cohort study in the Rakai district, Uganda. Data on in-migration and out-migration were collected among youth (15-24 years) from 43 communities from 1999-2011 (N=112,117 observations) and travel among youth residents from 2003-2008 (N=18,318 observations). Migration and travel were more common among young women than young men. One in five youth reported out-migration. Over time, out-migration increased among youth and in-migration remained largely stable. Primary reasons for migration included work, living with friends or family, and marriage. Recent travel within Uganda was common and increased slightly over time in teen women (15-19 years old), and young adult men and women (20-24 years old). Mobile youth were more likely to report HIV risk behaviours including: alcohol use, sexual experience, multiple partners, and inconsistent condom use. Our findings suggest that among rural Ugandan youth, mobility is increasingly common and associated with HIV risk factors. Knowledge of patterns and characteristics of a young, high-risk mobile population has important implications for HIV interventions. PMID:26313708

An integrative formal model of motivation and decision making: The MGPM*.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Yeo, Gillian; Loft, Shayne; Vancouver, Jeffrey B; Neal, Andrew

2016-09-01

We develop and test an integrative formal model of motivation and decision making. The model, referred to as the extended multiple-goal pursuit model (MGPM*), is an integration of the multiple-goal pursuit model (Vancouver, Weinhardt, & Schmidt, 2010) and decision field theory (Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993). Simulations of the model generated predictions regarding the effects of goal type (approach vs. avoidance), risk, and time sensitivity on prioritization. We tested these predictions in an experiment in which participants pursued different combinations of approach and avoidance goals under different levels of risk. The empirical results were consistent with the predictions of the MGPM*. Specifically, participants pursuing 1 approach and 1 avoidance goal shifted priority from the approach to the avoidance goal over time. Among participants pursuing 2 approach goals, those with low time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the larger discrepancy, whereas those with high time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Participants pursuing 2 avoidance goals generally prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Finally, all of these effects became weaker as the level of risk increased. We used quantitative model comparison to show that the MGPM* explained the data better than the original multiple-goal pursuit model, and that the major extensions from the original model were justified. The MGPM* represents a step forward in the development of a general theory of decision making during multiple-goal pursuit. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The impact of multiple blood donations on the risk of cardiovascular diseases: Insight of lipid profile.

PubMed

Bani-Ahmad, M A; Khabour, O F; Gharibeh, M Y; Alshlool, K N

2017-11-01

The reduction in blood viscosity and iron store were proposed to be connected to the reduction in the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among multiple blood donors. Herein, we evaluated the modulation of serum lipids levels in accordance with donation events. Furthermore, atherogenic impacts on the risk of CVD were investigated. A total of 100 voluntarily male donors were included in the study. Fifty donors were multiple time donors (MTD) and 50 were single time donors (STD). Levels of serum lipids were determined and atherogenic indices including TG/HDL and CHO/HDL ratios were calculated. QRISK2 parameters were determined to evaluate the 10-years risk of developing CVD. Among MTD, there were significantly higher serum levels of triglycerides (TG) and very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL) combined with significantly lower HDL level. These modulations were significantly correlated to the extent of donation. Both CHO/HDL and TG/HDL ratios were also significantly higher among MTD. However, only TG/HDL ratio was strongly correlated to the donation extent even when controlled for age, BMI and smoking status. Despite the significant difference in QRISK2 parameters between study groups, none of these parameters was correlated to the extent of donation when controlling for age, BMI and smoking status. We demonstrate that multiple blood donation is associated with an unfavorable modulation of serum levels of lipids that is influenced by donation extent. This modulation is not associated with an increased risk of CVD but may weakly contribute in a higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

2014-12-01

Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

PubMed Central

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

2014-01-01

Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

Triple synchronous primary lung cancer: a case report and review of the literature.

PubMed

Kashif, Muhammad; Ayyadurai, Puvanalingam; Thanha, Luong; Khaja, Misbahuddin

2017-09-01

Multiple primary lung cancer may present in synchronous or metachronous form. Synchronous multiple primary lung cancer is defined as multiple lung lesions that develop at the same time, whereas metachronous multiple primary lung cancer describes multiple lung lesions that develop at different times, typically following treatment of the primary lung cancer. Patients with previously treated lung cancer are at risk for developing metachronous lung cancer, but with the success of computed tomography and positron emission tomography, the ability to detect both synchronous and metachronous lung cancer has increased. We present a case of a 63-year-old Hispanic man who came to our hospital for evaluation of chest pain, dry cough, and weight loss. He had recently been diagnosed with adenocarcinoma in the right upper lobe, with a poorly differentiated carcinoma favoring squamous cell cancer based on bronchoalveolar lavage of the right lower lobe for which treatment was started. Later, bronchoscopy incidentally revealed the patient to have an endobronchial lesion that turned out to be mixed small and large cell neuroendocrine lung cancer. Our patient had triple synchronous primary lung cancers that histologically were variant primary cancers. Triple synchronous primary lung cancer management continues to be a challenge. Our patient's case suggests that multiple primary lung cancers may still occur at a greater rate than can be detected by high-resolution computed tomography.

Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

PubMed Central

Murray, Christopher JL; Ezzati, Majid; Lopez, Alan D; Rodgers, Anthony; Vander Hoorn, Stephen

2003-01-01

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty. PMID:12780936

Parental Attitudes Regarding School-Based Sexuality Education in Utah

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steadman, Mindy; Crookston, Benjamin; Page, Randy; Hall, Cougar

2014-01-01

Sexuality education programs can be broadly categorized as either risk-avoidance or risk-reduction approaches. Health educators in Utah public schools must teach a state mandated risk-avoidance curriculum which prohibits the advocacy or encouragement of contraception. Multiple national surveys indicate that parents prefer a risk-reduction approach…

Implementation of Systematic Review Tools in IRIS | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Currently, the number of chemicals present in the environment exceeds the ability of public health scientists to efficiently screen the available data in order to produce well-informed human health risk assessments in a timely manner. For this reason, the US EPA’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) program has started implementing new software tools into the hazard characterization workflow. These automated tools aid in multiple phases of the systematic review process including scoping and problem formulation, literature search, and identification and screening of available published studies. The increased availability of these tools lays the foundation for automating or semi-automating multiple phases of the systematic review process. Some of these software tools include modules to facilitate a structured approach to study quality evaluation of human and animal data, although approaches are generally lacking for assessing complex mechanistic information, in particular “omics”-based evidence tools are starting to become available to evaluate these types of studies. We will highlight how new software programs, online tools, and approaches for assessing study quality can be better integrated to allow for a more efficient and transparent workflow of the risk assessment process as well as identify tool gaps that would benefit future risk assessments. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the view

Evaluation and recommendation of sensitivity analysis methods for application to Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation models.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Christopher Frey, H; Zheng, Junyu

2006-11-01

Sensitivity analyses of exposure or risk models can help identify the most significant factors to aid in risk management or to prioritize additional research to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. However, sensitivity analysis is challenged by non-linearity, interactions between inputs, and multiple days or time scales. Selected sensitivity analysis methods are evaluated with respect to their applicability to human exposure models with such features using a testbed. The testbed is a simplified version of a US Environmental Protection Agency's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model. The methods evaluated include the Pearson and Spearman correlation, sample and rank regression, analysis of variance, Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST), and Sobol's method. The first five methods are known as "sampling-based" techniques, wheras the latter two methods are known as "variance-based" techniques. The main objective of the test cases was to identify the main and total contributions of individual inputs to the output variance. Sobol's method and FAST directly quantified these measures of sensitivity. Results show that sensitivity of an input typically changed when evaluated under different time scales (e.g., daily versus monthly). All methods provided similar insights regarding less important inputs; however, Sobol's method and FAST provided more robust insights with respect to sensitivity of important inputs compared to the sampling-based techniques. Thus, the sampling-based methods can be used in a screening step to identify unimportant inputs, followed by application of more computationally intensive refined methods to a smaller set of inputs. The implications of time variation in sensitivity results for risk management are briefly discussed.

A Systematic Review of Effective Interventions for Reducing Multiple Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Fitzgerald-Yau, Natasha; Viner, Russell Mark

2014-01-01

We systematically searched 9 biomedical and social science databases (1980–2012) for primary and secondary interventions that prevented or reduced 2 or more adolescent health risk behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol use, illicit drug use, risky sexual behavior, aggressive acts). We identified 44 randomized controlled trials of universal or selective interventions and were effective for multiple health risk behaviors. Most were school based, conducted in the United States, and effective for multiple forms of substance use. Effects were small, in line with findings for other universal prevention programs. In some studies, effects for more than 1 health risk behavior only emerged at long-term follow-up. Integrated prevention programs are feasible and effective and may be more efficient than discrete prevention strategies. PMID:24625172

Aquatic Nuisance Species in the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin—A Risk Assessment in Support of GLMRIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grippo, Mark A.; Hlohowskyj, Ihor; Fox, Laura; Herman, Brook; Pothoff, Johanna; Yoe, Charles; Hayse, John

2017-01-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is conducting the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study to identify the highest risk aquatic nuisance species currently established in either the Mississippi River Basin or the Great Lakes Basin and prevent their movement into a new basin. The Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study focuses specifically on aquatic nuisance species movement through the Chicago Area Waterway System, a multi-use waterway connecting the two basins. In support of Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study, we conducted a qualitative risk assessment for 33 aquatic nuisance species over a 50-year period of analysis based on the probability of aquatic nuisance species establishing in a new basin and the environmental, economic, and sociopolitical consequences of their establishment. Probability of establishment and consequences of establishment were assigned qualitative ratings of high, medium, or low after considering the species' current location, mobility, habitat suitability, and impacts in previously invaded systems. The establishment and consequence ratings were then combined into an overall risk rating. Seven species were characterized as posing a medium risk and two species as posing a high risk to the Mississippi River Basin. Three species were characterized as posing a medium risk to the Great Lakes Basin, but no high-risk species were identified for this basin. Risk increased over time for some aquatic nuisance species based on the time frame in which these species were considered likely to establish in the new basin. Both species traits and the need to balance multiple uses of the Chicago Area Waterway System must be considered when identifying control measures to prevent aquatic nuisance species movement between the two basins.

Should multifetal pregnancy reduction be used for prevention of preterm deliveries in triplet or higher order multiple pregnancies?

PubMed

Papiernik, E; Grangé, G; Zeitlin, J

1998-01-01

This article reviews the arguments for the use of multifetal pregnancy reduction (MFPR) for the prevention of preterm deliveries in triplet and higher order multiple pregnancies and evaluates its effectiveness based on data from published studies. The arguments in favour of pregnancy reduction are based on the substantial mortality and morbidity associated with these pregnancies. Triplets and higher order multiples have increased rates of preterm delivery and intrauterine growth retardation, both of which are independent risk factors for death and handicap. Even controlling for gestational age, rates of mortality and handicap are higher for multiples than for singletons. Moreover, the family's risk of losing a child or having a handicapped child is greater because there are more infants at risk. MFPR effectively lowers these risk by reducing the frequency of preterm delivery. However, its effectiveness may be limited. In some studies, the proportion of preterm deliveries in reduced pregnancies remains above levels found in spontaneous twin or singleton pregnancies and MFPR does not appear to reduce the prevalence of low birth weight. Furthermore, the procedure itself has unwanted side effects: it increases the risk of miscarriage, premature rupture of the membranes and causes adverse psychological effects such as grief or depression for many patients. The authors note that a majority of the higher order multiple pregnancies result from a medical intervention in the first place, either through IVF techniques or the use of ovulation stimulation drugs. Although MFPR is an effective measure for reducing the substantial morbidity and mortality associated with higher order multiple pregnancies, preventive methods, such as limiting to 2 the number of embryos transferred for IVF and better control of the use of ovulation induction drugs, remain more effective and less intrusive.

Scenario-based modeling for multiple allocation hub location problem under disruption risk: multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahyaei, Mohsen; Bashiri, Mahdi

2017-12-01

The hub location problem arises in a variety of domains such as transportation and telecommunication systems. In many real-world situations, hub facilities are subject to disruption. This paper deals with the multiple allocation hub location problem in the presence of facilities failure. To model the problem, a two-stage stochastic formulation is developed. In the proposed model, the number of scenarios grows exponentially with the number of facilities. To alleviate this issue, two approaches are applied simultaneously. The first approach is to apply sample average approximation to approximate the two stochastic problem via sampling. Then, by applying the multiple cuts Benders decomposition approach, computational performance is enhanced. Numerical studies show the effective performance of the SAA in terms of optimality gap for small problem instances with numerous scenarios. Moreover, performance of multi-cut Benders decomposition is assessed through comparison with the classic version and the computational results reveal the superiority of the multi-cut approach regarding the computational time and number of iterations.

Effect of mood states and infertility stress on patients' attitudes toward embryo transfer and multiple pregnancy.

PubMed

Newton, Christopher; Feyles, Valter; Asgary-Eden, Veronica

2013-08-01

To examine whether mood state or infertility stress influences perceptions of risk, preferences for embryo transfer, or views on multiple pregnancy. Observational cohort study. Hospital-based fertility clinic. One hundred seventy-six women participating in IVF treatment. None. Mood scores, ratings of risk, preference for multiple embryo transfer, and attitudes toward multiple pregnancy. Growing feelings of tension across the cycle corresponded with increases in the perceived riskiness of double-embryo transfer, but there was no change in strength of transfer preferences. Women experiencing negative moods, such as depression, viewed twin and triplet pregnancy as less likely, whereas increasing positive feelings across the cycle were associated with increasing desire for twin pregnancy. Overall, women perceived double- and triple-embryo transfer as less risky by cycle end than at cycle beginning and felt more certain about multiple-embryo transfer. The dyssynchrony observed among changes in mood, perceptions of risk, and transfer preferences challenges assumptions about the way medical risk information influences transfer preferences, and the findings suggest that mood states experienced during an IVF cycle might affect transfer preferences by influencing attitudes toward multiple pregnancy. Additional considerations beyond providing risk information are needed to facilitate effective patient decision making. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Translating evidence based violence and drug use prevention to obesity prevention: development and construction of the pathways program.

PubMed

Sakuma, Kari-Lyn K; Riggs, Nathaniel R; Pentz, Mary Ann

2012-04-01

Effective school-based obesity prevention programs are needed to prevent and reduce the growing obesity risk among youth. Utilizing the evidence-rich areas of violence and substance use prevention, translation science may provide an efficient means for developing curricula across multiple health behaviors. This paper introduces Pathways to Health, a school-based obesity prevention program that was developed by translating from evidence-based violence and drug use prevention programs, Promoting Alternative THinking Strategies and the Midwestern Prevention Project STAR (STAR). We illustrate how a hypothesized underlying behavior change mechanism in two domains of risk behavior, violence and substance use, can be applied to obesity prevention. A 4-step translational process is provided and may be relevant for use in developing other curricula to address multiple health risk behaviors. Practical application and decision points are also provided.

Translating evidence based violence and drug use prevention to obesity prevention: development and construction of the Pathways program

PubMed Central

Sakuma, Kari-Lyn K.; Riggs, Nathaniel R.; Pentz, Mary Ann

2012-01-01

Effective school-based obesity prevention programs are needed to prevent and reduce the growing obesity risk among youth. Utilizing the evidence-rich areas of violence and substance use prevention, translation science may provide an efficient means for developing curricula across multiple health behaviors. This paper introduces Pathways to Health, a school-based obesity prevention program that was developed by translating from evidence-based violence and drug use prevention programs, Promoting Alternative THinking Strategies and the Midwestern Prevention Project STAR (STAR). We illustrate how a hypothesized underlying behavior change mechanism in two domains of risk behavior, violence and substance use, can be applied to obesity prevention. A 4-step translational process is provided and may be relevant for use in developing other curricula to address multiple health risk behaviors. Practical application and decision points are also provided. PMID:21987475

Evidence-Based Assessment of Conduct Problems in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMahon, Robert J.; Frick, Paul J.

2005-01-01

This article provides a summary of research in 4 areas that have direct and important implications for evidence-based assessment of children and adolescents with conduct problems (CP): (a) the heterogeneity in types and severity of CP, (b) common comorbid conditions, (c) multiple risk factors associated with CP, and (d) multiple developmental…

AN APPROACH TO PREDICT RISKS TO WILDLIFE POPULATIONS FROM MERCURY AND OTHER STRESSORS

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

Genetic modifiers of CHEK2*1100delC associated breast cancer risk

PubMed Central

Muranen, Taru A.; Greco, Dario; Blomqvist, Carl; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Khan, Sofia; Hogervorst, Frans; Verhoef, Senno; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Schoemaker, Minouk; Swerdlow, Anthony; García-Closas, Montserrat; Figueroa, Jonine; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Hall, Per; Li, Jingmei; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Bermisheva, Marina; Kristensen, Vessela; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Peto, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Couch, Fergus J.; Olson, Janet E.; Hillemans, Peter; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Brauch, Hiltrud; Hamann, Ute; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Martens, John W.M.; Fasching, Peter A.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Ziogas, Argyrios; Giles, Graham G.; Milne, Roger L.; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker; Mannermaa, Arto; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Devilee, Peter; Seynaeve, Caroline; Hopper, John L.; Southey, Melissa C.; John, Esther M.; Whittemore, Alice S.; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Easton, Douglas F.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Nevanlinna, Heli

2016-01-01

Purpose CHEK2*1100delC is a founder variant in European populations conferring a 2–3 fold increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Epidemiologic and family studies have suggested that the risk associated with CHEK2*1100delC is modified by other genetic factors in a multiplicative fashion. We have investigated this empirically using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Methods With genotype data of 39,139 (624 1100delC carriers) BC patients and 40,063 (224) healthy controls from 32 BCAC studies, we analyzed the combined risk effects of CHEK2*1100delC and 77 common variants in terms of a polygenic risk score (PRS) and pairwise interaction. Results The PRS conferred an odds ratio (OR) of 1.59 [95% CI 1.21–2.09] per standard deviation for BC for CHEK2*1100delC carriers and 1.58 [1.55–1.62] for non-carriers. No evidence for deviation from the multiplicative model was found. The OR for the highest quintile of the PRS was 2.03 [0.86–4.78] for CHEK2*1100delC carriers placing them to the high risk category according to UK NICE guidelines. OR for the lowest quintile was 0.52 [0.16–1.74], indicating life-time risk close to population average. Conclusion Our results confirm the multiplicative nature of risk effects conferred by CHEK2*1100delC and the common susceptibility variants. Furthermore, the PRS could identify the carriers at a high life-time risk for clinical actions. PMID:27711073

Efficient computation of the joint probability of multiple inherited risk alleles from pedigree data.

PubMed

Madsen, Thomas; Braun, Danielle; Peng, Gang; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Trippa, Lorenzo

2018-06-25

The Elston-Stewart peeling algorithm enables estimation of an individual's probability of harboring germline risk alleles based on pedigree data, and serves as the computational backbone of important genetic counseling tools. However, it remains limited to the analysis of risk alleles at a small number of genetic loci because its computing time grows exponentially with the number of loci considered. We propose a novel, approximate version of this algorithm, dubbed the peeling and paring algorithm, which scales polynomially in the number of loci. This allows extending peeling-based models to include many genetic loci. The algorithm creates a trade-off between accuracy and speed, and allows the user to control this trade-off. We provide exact bounds on the approximation error and evaluate it in realistic simulations. Results show that the loss of accuracy due to the approximation is negligible in important applications. This algorithm will improve genetic counseling tools by increasing the number of pathogenic risk alleles that can be addressed. To illustrate we create an extended five genes version of BRCAPRO, a widely used model for estimating the carrier probabilities of BRCA1 and BRCA2 risk alleles and assess its computational properties. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Multidimensional Patterns of Sexual Risk Behavior and Psychiatric Disorders in Men with Substance Use Disorders.

PubMed

Villalobos-Gallegos, Luis; Medina-Mora, María Elena; Benjet, Corina; Ruiz-Velasco, Silvia; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Marín-Navarrete, Rodrigo

2018-05-29

Previous evidence links substance use disorders (SUD) to STI/HIV risk and suggests that comorbid psychiatric disorders increase the probability to engage in sexual risk behaviors. This study had two aims: (1) to identify subgroups based on sexual risk behavior using a person-centered approach in a sample of substance users and (2) to measure the association of psychiatric and SUD with subgroup membership. We assessed 402 male adults with SUD, reporting sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months using the HIV-Risk Behavior Scale and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Latent class analysis was performed to determine multidimensional patterns of sexual risk behaviors and multinomial logistic regression was utilized to associate classes with disorders. The three-class model showed the best fit, and the classes were labeled: Relationship-Based (31.34% of the sample), Condom-Based (39.55%), and Multiple Risks (29.10%). Controlling for age and marital status, major depressive disorders, antisocial personality disorder, and any psychiatric disorder were associated with the Multiple Risks class. Results stress the importance of developing a personalized assessment and counseling for sexual risk behaviors in individuals with SUD, particularly when they endorse criteria for comorbid psychiatric disorders. Future studies should focus on evaluating differential response to preventive interventions.

In vitro evaluation of the effect of haemodilution with dextran 40 on coagulation profile as measured by thromboelastometry and multiple electrode aggregometry.

PubMed

Kam, Pca; Liou, Jpc; Yang, Kxf

2017-09-01

We evaluated the effects of haemodilution with either dextran 40 or 0.9% normal saline on coagulation in vitro using rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM®, Pentapharm Co., Munich, Germany) and multiple electrode aggregometry (Multiplate® Platelet Function Analyser, Dynabyte, Munich, Germany). Venous blood samples obtained from 20 healthy volunteers were diluted in vitro with dextran 40 or normal saline by 5%, 10% and 15%. Fibrinogen concentration, ROTEM-EXTEM® (screening test for the extrinsic coagulation pathway), FIBTEM® (an EXTEM-based assay of the fibrin component of clot) parameters including coagulation time, clot formation time, alpha angle, maximum clot firmness and lysis index were measured in the undiluted sample and at each level of haemodilution. Dextran 40 at 15% haemodilution significantly prolonged coagulation time, clot formation time and significantly decreased the alpha angle and maximal clot firmness (EXTEM amplitude at five minutes [A5] and ten minutes [A10]) compared with normal saline. The FIBTEM assay (maximal clot firmness and FIBTEM A5 and A10) showed a marked decrease in maximal clot firmness at all dilutions suggesting impaired fibrinogen activity and a risk of bleeding. Multiple electrode aggregometry did not demonstrate any platelet dysfunction. Haemodilution with dextran 40 causes significant impairment in clot formation and strength compared to saline haemodilution and undiluted blood. At the levels of in vitro haemodilution designed to reflect the clinical use of dextran infusions, no significant fibrinolysis or platelet inhibition was observed.

Mechanical characteristics of plastic base Ports and impact on flushing efficacy.

PubMed

Guiffant, Gérard; Flaud, Patrice; Royon, Laurent; Burnet, Espérie; Merckx, Jacques

2017-01-01

Three types of totally implantable venous access devices, Ports, are currently in use: titanium, plastic (polyoxymethylene, POM), and mixed (titanium base with a POM shell). Physics theory suggests that the interaction between a non-coring needle (NCN, made of stainless steel) and a plastic base would lead to the stronger material (steel) altering the more malleable material (plastic). To investigate whether needle impacts can alter a plastic base's surface, thus potentially reducing flushing efficacy. A Port made of POM was punctured 200 times with a 19-gauge NCN. Following the existing guidelines, the needle tip pricked the base with each puncture. The Port's base was then examined using a two-dimensional optical instrument, and a bi-dimensional numerical simulation using COMSOL ® was performed to investigate potential surface irregularities and their impact on fluid flow. Each needle impact created a hole (mean depth, 0.12 mm) with a small bump beside it (mean height, 0.02 mm) the Reynolds number Re k ≈10. A numerical simulation of the one hole/bump set showed that the flushing efficacy was 60% that of flushing along a flat surface. In clinical practice, the number of times a Port is punctured depends on patient and treatment characteristics, but each needle impact on the plastic base may increase the risk of decreased flushing effectiveness. Therefore, the more a plastic Port is accessed, the greater the risk of microorganisms, blood products, and medication accumulation. Multiple needle impacts created an irregular surface on the Port's base, which decreased flushing efficacy. Clinical investigation is needed to determine whether plastic base Ports are associated with an increased risk of Port infection and occlusion compared to titanium base Ports.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

Aggregate exposure pathways in support of risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluating multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand...

Real Time Radiation Exposure And Health Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Shaowen; Barzilla, Janet E.; Semones, Edward J.

2015-01-01

Radiation from solar particle events (SPEs) poses a serious threat to future manned missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurate characterization of the radiation environment in the inner heliosphere and timely monitoring the health risks to crew are essential steps to ensure the safety of future Mars missions. In this project we plan to develop an approach that can use the particle data from multiple satellites and perform near real-time simulations of radiation exposure and health risks for various exposure scenarios. Time-course profiles of dose rates will be calculated with HZETRN and PDOSE from the energy spectrum and compositions of the particles archived from satellites, and will be validated from recent radiation exposure measurements in space. Real-time estimation of radiation risks will be investigated using ARRBOD. This cross discipline integrated approach can improve risk mitigation by providing critical information for risk assessment and medical guidance to crew during SPEs.

Opportunities for Cancer Prevention During Midlife

PubMed Central

Holman, Dawn M.; Grossman, Melissa; Henley, S. Jane; Peipins, Lucy A.; Tison, Laura; White, Mary C.

2015-01-01

This paper provides highlights from a CDC-hosted meeting on opportunities for cancer prevention during midlife (roughly ages 45–64 years). Positive changes during this phase of life have the potential to prevent cancer incidence later in life, making this phase an opportune time for targeted prevention efforts to facilitate healthy aging and increased longevity. Risk and protective factors discussed during the meeting included exposure to radiation from medical imaging procedures, circadian disruption, chemical exposures, dietary factors, alcohol consumption, obesity, physical activity, diabetes, and the human microbiome. Although many of these factors are well recognized as being related to cancer incidence, others are not as widely recognized or have emerged as growing areas of research. Meeting participants discussed promising strategies for cancer prevention targeting this age group. Just as there are multiple determinants of cancer risk, there are likely multiple solutions. Changes to social and physical environments may facilitate healthy behaviors and minimize harmful exposures. Information shared during the meeting about health disparities in the U.S. highlighted the need to go beyond traditional approaches to cancer prevention to truly reach vulnerable populations. Partnerships are also a key component to prevention efforts; community-based and nonprofit organizations, the healthcare system, research institutions, state health departments, and federal agencies were all noted as important partners in prevention efforts. Coordinated, multi-disciplinary efforts across multiple chronic diseases may provide opportunities for synergistic effects. Further, leveraging key partnerships and existing communication channels can maximize success and facilitate timely translation of research findings into public health practice. PMID:24512934

Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Jeff; Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin

2016-01-01

Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extent are being developed for California coastal communities. We use the coastal city of Alameda, California (USA), as a case study to explore population and evacuation implications associated with multiple tsunami-evacuation zones. We use geospatial analyses to estimate the number and type of people in each tsunami-evacuation zone and anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to estimate pedestrian travel time out of each zone. Results demonstrate that there are tens of thousands of individuals in tsunami-evacuation zones on the two main islands of Alameda, but they will likely have sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Quality of life could be impacted by the high number of government offices, schools, day-care centers, and medical offices in certain evacuation zones and by potentially high population density at one identified safe area after an evacuation. Multi-jurisdictional evacuation planning may be warranted, given that many at-risk individuals may need to evacuate to neighboring jurisdictions. The use of maximum evacuation zones for local tsunami sources may be warranted given the limited amount of available time to confidently recommend smaller zones which would result in fewer evacuees; however, this approach may also result in over-evacuation and the incorrect perception that successful evacuations are unlikely.

Natural history of age-related lobular involution and impact on breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Radisky, Derek C; Visscher, Daniel W; Frank, Ryan D; Vierkant, Robert A; Winham, Stacey; Stallings-Mann, Melody; Hoskin, Tanya L; Nassar, Aziza; Vachon, Celine M; Denison, Lori A; Hartmann, Lynn C; Frost, Marlene H; Degnim, Amy C

2016-02-01

Age-related lobular involution (LI) is a physiological process in which the terminal duct lobular units of the breast regress as a woman ages. Analyses of breast biopsies from women with benign breast disease (BBD) have found that extent of LI is negatively associated with subsequent breast cancer development. Here we assess the natural course of LI within individual women, and the impact of progressive LI on breast cancer risk. The Mayo Clinic BBD cohort consists of 13,455 women with BBD from 1967 to 2001. The BBD cohort includes 1115 women who had multiple benign biopsies, 106 of whom had developed breast cancer. Within this multiple biopsy cohort, the progression of the LI process was examined by age at initial biopsy and time between biopsies. The relationship between LI progression and breast cancer risk was assessed using standardized incidence ratios and by Cox proportional hazards analysis. Women who had multiple biopsies were younger age and had a slightly higher family history of breast cancer as compared with the overall BBD cohort. Extent of LI at subsequent biopsy was greater with increasing time between biopsies and for women age 55 + at initial biopsy. Among women with multiple biopsies, there was a significant association of higher breast cancer risk among those with involution stasis (lack of progression, HR 1.63) as compared with those with involution progression, p = 0.036. The multiple biopsy BBD cohort allows for a longitudinal study of the natural progression of LI. The majority of women in the multiple biopsy cohort showed progression of LI status between benign biopsies, and extent of progression was highest for women who were in the perimenopausal age range at initial biopsy. Progression of LI status between initial and subsequent biopsy was associated with decreased breast cancer risk.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: the Case of Radon and Smoking

EPA Science Inventory

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case exam...

[From the prehypertensive adolescent to the hypertensive adult. Is possible to predict the conversion?].

PubMed

Pérez-Fernández, Guillermo Alberto; Grau-Abalo, Ricardo

2012-01-01

There are many risk factors for developing hypertension. In the XXI century, smarter ways to investigate are needed, so preventing the turning of an adolescent into a hypertensive adult must be a priority. The aim of this paper is to predict the risk of hypertension onset in adulthood, from cardiovascular tension and risk stratification since adolescence. A representative sample of 125 adolescents from the project "Pesquisaje Escolar en la Adolescencia de Hipertensión Arterial" (PESESCAD-HTA) was studied. They were diagnosed with prehypertension in 2001, and were followed for eight years (96 months) until January 2009. Two predictive indexes were obtained. The first, based on the total cardiovascular risk and the second from the multiplication of these risks with an accuracy index for each of 61.6% and 70.4%, respectively. The index based on the multiplication of cardiovascular risk can predict, with adequate accuracy, the turning of a prehypertensive adolescent into hypertensive once he/she reaches adulthood.

Iodine-based contrast media, multiple myeloma and monoclonal gammopathies: literature review and ESUR Contrast Media Safety Committee guidelines.

PubMed

Stacul, Fulvio; Bertolotto, Michele; Thomsen, Henrik S; Pozzato, Gabriele; Ugolini, Donatella; Bellin, Marie-France; Bongartz, Georg; Clement, Olivier; Heinz-Peer, Gertraud; van der Molen, Aart; Reimer, Peter; Webb, Judith A W

2018-02-01

Many radiologists and clinicians still consider multiple myeloma (MM) and monoclonal gammopathies (MG) a contraindication for using iodine-based contrast media. The ESUR Contrast Media Safety Committee performed a systematic review of the incidence of post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI) in these patients. A systematic search in Medline and Scopus databases was performed for renal function deterioration studies in patients with MM or MG following administration of iodine-based contrast media. Data collection and analysis were performed according to the PRISMA statement 2009. Eligibility criteria and methods of analysis were specified in advance. Cohort and case-control studies reporting changes in renal function were included. Thirteen studies were selected that reported 824 iodine-based contrast medium administrations in 642 patients with MM or MG, in which 12 unconfounded cases of PC-AKI were found (1.6 %). The majority of patients had intravenous urography with high osmolality ionic contrast media after preparatory dehydration and purgation. MM and MG alone are not risk factors for PC-AKI. However, the risk of PC-AKI may become significant in dehydrated patients with impaired renal function. Hypercalcaemia may increase the risk of kidney damage, and should be corrected before contrast medium administration. Assessment for Bence-Jones proteinuria is not necessary. • Monoclonal gammopathies including multiple myeloma are a large spectrum of disorders. • In monoclonal gammopathy with normal renal function, PC-AKI risk is not increased. • Renal function is often reduced in myeloma, increasing the risk of PC-AKI. • Correction of hypercalcaemia is necessary in myeloma before iodine-based contrast medium administration. • Bence-Jones proteinuria assessment in myeloma is unnecessary before iodine-based contrast medium administration.

Mapping groundwater contamination risk of multiple aquifers using multi-model ensemble of machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Barzegar, Rahim; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari; Deo, Ravinesh; Fijani, Elham; Tziritis, Evangelos

2018-04-15

Constructing accurate and reliable groundwater risk maps provide scientifically prudent and strategic measures for the protection and management of groundwater. The objectives of this paper are to design and validate machine learning based-risk maps using ensemble-based modelling with an integrative approach. We employ the extreme learning machines (ELM), multivariate regression splines (MARS), M5 Tree and support vector regression (SVR) applied in multiple aquifer systems (e.g. unconfined, semi-confined and confined) in the Marand plain, North West Iran, to encapsulate the merits of individual learning algorithms in a final committee-based ANN model. The DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (VI) ranged from 56.7 to 128.1, categorized with no risk, low and moderate vulnerability thresholds. The correlation coefficient (r) and Willmott's Index (d) between NO 3 concentrations and VI were 0.64 and 0.314, respectively. To introduce improvements in the original DRASTIC method, the vulnerability indices were adjusted by NO 3 concentrations, termed as the groundwater contamination risk (GCR). Seven DRASTIC parameters utilized as the model inputs and GCR values utilized as the outputs of individual machine learning models were served in the fully optimized committee-based ANN-predictive model. The correlation indicators demonstrated that the ELM and SVR models outperformed the MARS and M5 Tree models, by virtue of a larger d and r value. Subsequently, the r and d metrics for the ANN-committee based multi-model in the testing phase were 0.8889 and 0.7913, respectively; revealing the superiority of the integrated (or ensemble) machine learning models when compared with the original DRASTIC approach. The newly designed multi-model ensemble-based approach can be considered as a pragmatic step for mapping groundwater contamination risks of multiple aquifer systems with multi-model techniques, yielding the high accuracy of the ANN committee-based model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moderators of intervention effects on parenting practices in a randomized controlled trial in early childhood.

PubMed

Theise, Rachelle; Huang, Keng-Yen; Kamboukos, Dimitra; Doctoroff, Greta L; Dawson-McClure, Spring; Palamar, Joseph J; Brotman, Laurie Miller

2014-01-01

The current study examined whether parent psychological resources (parenting stress, depression, and social support from friends and family) moderated the effects of early family preventive intervention on parenting among high-risk families. Ninety-two preschool-age children (M age = 3.94 years) at familial risk for conduct problems participated in a randomized controlled trial of a family intervention to prevent conduct problems. The majority of families were African American or Latino and experienced multiple stressors associated with poverty and familial antisocial behavior. Families were randomized to a 22-session group-based intervention or to a no-intervention, assessment-only control condition. Parents reported on their psychological resources (parenting stress, depression and social support from friends and family) at baseline. Parenting (responsive, harsh, stimulation for learning) was assessed through self-report and observational measures four times over 24 months. Previously-reported intervention effects on responsive parenting and stimulation for learning were moderated by depression and social support from friends, respectively, such that benefits were concentrated among those at greatest risk (i.e., depressed, limited support from friends). The intervention effect on harsh parenting was not moderated by any of the parent psychological resources examined, such that parents with high and low resources benefited comparably. Consideration of moderators of preventive intervention effects on parenting provides important information about intervention impact among families experiencing multiple barriers to engagement and effective parenting. Findings suggest that parents with diminished psychological resources are just as likely to benefit. Family-focused, group-based intervention is promising for strengthening parenting among the highest risk families.

Moderators of Intervention Effects on Parenting Practices in a Randomized Controlled Trial in Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Theise, Rachelle; Huang, Keng-Yen; Kamboukos, Dimitra; Doctoroff, Greta L.; Dawson-McClure, Spring; Palamar, Joseph J.; Brotman, Laurie Miller

2013-01-01

Objective The current study examined whether parent psychological resources (parenting stress, depression, and social support from friends and family), moderated the effects of early family preventive intervention on parenting among high-risk families. Method Ninety-two preschool-age children (Mean age = 3.94 years) at familial risk for conduct problems participated in a randomized controlled trial of a family intervention to prevent conduct problems. The majority of families were African American or Latino and experienced multiple stressors associated with poverty and familial antisocial behavior. Families were randomized to a 22-session group-based intervention or to a no-intervention, assessment-only control condition. Parents reported on their psychological resources (parenting stress, depression and social support from friends and family) at baseline. Parenting (responsive, harsh, stimulation for learning) was assessed through self-report and observational measures four times over 24 months. Results Previously-reported intervention effects on responsive parenting and stimulation for learning were moderated by depression and social support from friends, respectively, such that benefits were concentrated among those at greatest risk (i.e., depressed, limited support from friends). The intervention effect on harsh parenting was not moderated by any of the parent psychological resources examined, such that parents with high and low resources benefited comparably. Conclusions Consideration of moderators of preventive intervention effects on parenting provides important information about intervention impact in families experiencing multiple barriers to engagement and effective parenting. Findings suggest that parents with diminished psychological resources are just as likely to benefit. Family-centered, group-based intervention is promising for strengthening parenting among the highest risk families. PMID:24063291

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A generic multi-hazard and multi-risk framework and its application illustrated in a virtual city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, Arnaud; Euchner, Fabian; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

We present a generic framework to implement hazard correlations in multi-risk assessment strategies. We consider hazard interactions (process I), time-dependent vulnerability (process II) and time-dependent exposure (process III). Our approach is based on the Monte Carlo method to simulate a complex system, which is defined from assets exposed to a hazardous region. We generate 1-year time series, sampling from a stochastic set of events. Each time series corresponds to one risk scenario and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths. Each sampled event is associated to a time of occurrence, a damage footprint and a loss footprint. The occurrence of an event depends on its rate, which is conditional on the occurrence of past events (process I, concept of correlation matrix). Damage depends on the hazard intensity and on the vulnerability of the asset, which is conditional on previous damage on that asset (process II). Losses are the product of damage and exposure value, this value being the original exposure minus previous losses (process III, no reconstruction considered). The Monte Carlo method allows for a straightforward implementation of uncertainties and for implementation of numerous interactions, which is otherwise challenging in an analytical multi-risk approach. We apply our framework to a synthetic data set, defined by a virtual city within a virtual region. This approach gives the opportunity to perform multi-risk analyses in a controlled environment while not requiring real data, which may be difficultly accessible or simply unavailable to the public. Based on the heuristic approach, we define a 100 by 100 km region where earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, fluvial floods, hurricanes and coastal floods can occur. All hazards are harmonized to a common format. We define a 20 by 20 km city, composed of 50,000 identical buildings with a fixed economic value. Vulnerability curves are defined in terms of mean damage ratio as a function of hazard intensity. All data are based on simple equations found in the literature and on other simplifications. We show the impact of earthquake-earthquake interaction and hurricane-storm surge coupling, as well as of time-dependent vulnerability and exposure, on aggregated loss curves. One main result is the emergence of low probability-high consequences (extreme) events when correlations are implemented. While the concept of virtual city can suggest the theoretical benefits of multi-risk assessment for decision support, identifying their real-world practicality will require the study of real test sites.

A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

PubMed

Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

2012-01-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

A globally applicable location-specific screening model for assessing the relative risk of pesticide leaching.

PubMed

Whelan, M J; Davenport, E J; Smith, B G

2007-05-15

A screening model of pesticide leaching loss is described which forms part of a multi-criteria risk-based indicator system called PRoMPT (Pesticide Risk Management and Profiling Tool). The leaching model evaluates pesticide fate in soil for any application rate and time of application (including multiple applications), for any land-based location in the world. It considers a generic evaluative environment with fixed dimensions and soil properties. The soil profile is conceptualised as a number of discrete layers. Equilibrium partitioning between adsorbed and dissolved chemical (based on the organic carbon-water partition coefficient [K(OC)]) is assumed in each time step, in each layer. Non-leaching losses are described using first order kinetics. Drainage is assumed to be uniform throughout the soil profile but varies temporally. The drainage rate, which can be augmented by evapotranspiration-adjusted irrigation, is derived from long-term mean monthly water balance model calculations performed for 30 arc-minute grid cells across the entire ice-free land surface of the earth. Although, such predictions are approximate, they do capture the seasonality and relative magnitude of drainage and allow the model to be applied anywhere, without the need for extensive data compilation. PRoMPT predictions are shown to be consistent with those made by more sophisticated models (PRZM, PELMO and PEARL) for the FOCUS groundwater scenarios.

Disparities in HIV/AIDS Risk Behaviors After Youth Leave Detention: A 14-Year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Abram, Karen M.; Stokes, Marquita L.; Welty, Leah J.; Aaby, David A.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in the prevalence of 15 HIV/AIDS sex and drug risk behaviors in delinquent youth during the 14 years after they leave detention, focusing on sex and racial/ethnic differences. METHODS: The Northwestern Juvenile Project, a prospective longitudinal study of 1829 youth randomly sampled from detention in Chicago, Illinois, recruited between 1995 and 1998 and reinterviewed up to 11 times. Independent interviewers assessed HIV/AIDS risk behaviors using the National Institutes on Drug Abuse Risk Behavior Assessment. RESULTS: Fourteen years after detention (median age, 30 years), one-quarter of males and one-tenth of females had >1 sexual partner in the past 3 months. One-tenth of participants reported recent unprotected vaginal sex with a high-risk partner. There were many sex and racial/ethnic differences. For example, African American males had 4.67 times the odds of having >1 partner than African American females (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.22–6.76). Over time, compared with non-Hispanic white males, African American males had 2.56 times the odds (95% CI, 1.97–3.33) and Hispanic males had 1.63 times the odds (95% CI, 1.24–2.12) of having multiple partners, even after adjusting for incarceration and age. Non-Hispanic white females were more likely to have multiple partners than racial/ethnic minority females. CONCLUSIONS: Although rates decrease over time, prevalence of sex risk behaviors are much higher than the general population. Among males, racial/ethnic minorities were at particular risk. The challenge for pediatric health is to address how disproportionate confinement of racial/ethnic minority youth contributes to disparities in the HIV/AIDS epidemic. PMID:28115541

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline from 2015 (CAN International 2014), and if policy makers are limited to the IPCC AR5 we recommend RCP2.6, with emissions declining by 2020.

Prevalence, distribution, and viral burden of all 15 high-risk human papillomavirus types in adenosquamous carcinoma of the uterine cervix: a multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction-based study.

PubMed

Quddus, M Ruhul; Manna, Pradip; Sung, C James; Kerley, Spencer; Steinhoff, Margaret M; Lawrence, W Dwayne

2014-02-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 are the types most commonly found in cervical adenosquamous carcinoma. Multiple HPV types have been found in cervical adenocarcinoma but not in the adenosquamous variant. Type-specific detection of high-risk (HR) HPV allows the detection of co-infection by multiple HPV types and assessment of viral load per cell. Our aim was to identify and quantify all HR HPV types in cervical adenosquamous carcinoma and to correlate viral loads with prognosis-related histologic features. All 15 HR HPV types were tested for by multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction, and standard curves were created for each type. Viral loads were determined retrospectively. Prognosis-related histologic features were correlated with specific HPV types and the viral loads. A total of 80% of the tumors examined expressed HPV. Types 16/18 were detected in 86% of these cases, whereas the remaining 14% of the positive cases were infected by other types. A single type of virus was detected in 67% of cases, 2 in 29%, and 3 in 4%. Poor prognostic features were seen in 84.6% of the tumors infected with HPV 16, 46% of those infected with HPV 18, and 100% of those infected with other types. As expected, HPV 16, HPV 18, or both were the most frequent viral types; HPV 73 was the next most frequent type. Multiple HPV types were detected in 33% of the tumors. Non-HPV 16/18 cases had low viral loads, but all of these had poor prognosis-related histologic features. Two of the three recurrent cases had multiple viral types. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data: the life table methods.

PubMed

Moussa, M A

1987-02-01

The stochastic compartment model concepts are employed to analyse and construct complete and abbreviated total mortality life tables, multiple-decrement life tables for a disease, under the underlying and pattern-of-failure definitions of mortality risk, cause-elimination life tables, cause-elimination effects on saved population through the gain in life expectancy as a consequence of eliminating the mortality risk, cause-delay life tables designed to translate the clinically observed increase in survival time as the population gain in life expectancy that would occur if a treatment protocol was made available to the general population and life tables for disease dependency in multiple-cause data.

Physical Activity, Sedentary Habits, Sleep, and Obesity are Associated with Asthma, Allergic Rhinitis, and Atopic Dermatitis in Korean Adolescents.

PubMed

Lim, Man Sup; Lee, Chang Hee; Sim, Songyong; Hong, Sung Kwang; Choi, Hyo Geun

2017-09-01

Since pathophysiologic evidence has been raised to suggest that obesity could facilitate an allergic reaction, obesity has been known as an independent risk factor for allergic disease such as asthma. However, the relationship between sedentary behavior and lifestyle which could lead to obesity, and those allergic diseases remains unclear. We analyzed the relations between physical activity, including sitting time for study, sitting time for leisure and sleep time, and obesity, asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis using the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey, which was conducted in 2013. Total 53769 adolescent participants (12 through 18 years old) were analyzed using simple and multiple logistic regression analyses with complex sampling. Longer sitting time for study and short sitting time for leisure were associated with allergic rhinitis. High physical activity and short sleep time were associated with asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis. Underweight was negatively associated with atopic dermatitis, whereas overweight was positively correlated with allergic rhinitis and atopic dermatitis. High physical activity, and short sleep time were associated with asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis. © Copyright: Yonsei University College of Medicine 2017

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Incorporation of real-time component information using equipment condition assessment (ECA) through the developmentof enhanced risk monitors (ERM) for active components in advanced reactor (AR) and advanced small modular reactor (SMR) designs. We incorporate time-dependent failure probabilities from prognostic health management (PHM) systems to dynamically update the risk metric of interest. This information is used to augment data used for supervisory control and plant-wide coordination of multiple modules by providing the incremental risk incurred due to aging and demands placed on components that support mission requirements.

Capacity planning for electronic waste management facilities under uncertainty: multi-objective multi-time-step model development.

PubMed

Poonam Khanijo Ahluwalia; Nema, Arvind K

2011-07-01

Selection of optimum locations for locating new facilities and decision regarding capacities at the proposed facilities is a major concern for municipal authorities/managers. The decision as to whether a single facility is preferred over multiple facilities of smaller capacities would vary with varying priorities to cost and associated risks such as environmental or health risk or risk perceived by the society. Currently management of waste streams such as that of computer waste is being done using rudimentary practices and is flourishing as an unorganized sector, mainly as backyard workshops in many cities of developing nations such as India. Uncertainty in the quantification of computer waste generation is another major concern due to the informal setup of present computer waste management scenario. Hence, there is a need to simultaneously address uncertainty in waste generation quantities while analyzing the tradeoffs between cost and associated risks. The present study aimed to address the above-mentioned issues in a multi-time-step, multi-objective decision-support model, which can address multiple objectives of cost, environmental risk, socially perceived risk and health risk, while selecting the optimum configuration of existing and proposed facilities (location and capacities).

Decision Support Systems for Launch and Range Operations Using Jess

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

2007-01-01

The virtual test bed for launch and range operations developed at NASA Ames Research Center consists of various independent expert systems advising on weather effects, toxic gas dispersions and human health risk assessment during space-flight operations. An individual dedicated server supports each expert system and the master system gather information from the dedicated servers to support the launch decision-making process. Since the test bed is based on the web system, reducing network traffic and optimizing the knowledge base is critical to its success of real-time or near real-time operations. Jess, a fast rule engine and powerful scripting environment developed at Sandia National Laboratory has been adopted to build the expert systems providing robustness and scalability. Jess also supports XML representation of knowledge base with forward and backward chaining inference mechanism. Facts added - to working memory during run-time operations facilitates analyses of multiple scenarios. Knowledge base can be distributed with one inference engine performing the inference process. This paper discusses details of the knowledge base and inference engine using Jess for a launch and range virtual test bed.

Prospectively-Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort

PubMed Central

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R.; Greene, Mark H.

2015-01-01

Background Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly-penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. Methods We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Results Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR=11.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]=5.1–23.4; excess absolute risk=7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR=13.4; 95%CI=1.6–48.6). Conclusions Our data are the first indicating that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Impact Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. PMID:26265202

Prospectively Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort.

PubMed

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D; Loud, Jennifer T; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R; Greene, Mark H

2015-10-01

Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR = 11.9; 95% CI, 5.1-23.4; excess absolute risk = 7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR = 13.4; 95% CI, 1.6-48.6). Our data are the first to indicate that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Risk factors for multiple myeloma: a hospital-based case-control study in Northwest China.

PubMed

Wang, Qixia; Wang, Yiwei; Ji, Zhaohua; Chen, Xiequn; Pan, Yaozhu; Gao, Guangxun; Gu, Hongtao; Yang, Yang; Choi, Bernard C K; Yan, Yongping

2012-10-01

The distinctive racial/ethnic and geographic distribution of multiple myeloma (MM) suggests that both family history and environmental factors may contribute to its development. A hospital-based case-control study consisting of 220 confirmed MM cases and 220 individually matched patient controls, by sex, age and hospital was carried out at 5 major hospitals in Northwest China. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographics, family history, and the frequency of food items consumed. Based on multivariate analysis, a significant association between the risk of MM and family history of cancers in first degree relatives was observed (OR=4.03, 95% CI: 2.50-6.52). Fried food, cured/smoked food, black tea, and fish were not significantly associated with the risk of MM. Intake of shallot and garlic (OR=0.60, 95% CI: 0.43-0.85), soy food (OR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.36-0.75) and green tea (OR=0.38, 95% CI: 0.27-0.53) was significantly associated with a reduced risk of MM. In contrast, intake of brined vegetables and pickle was significantly associated with an increased risk (OR=2.03, 95% CI: 1.41-2.93). A more than multiplicative interaction on the decreased risk of MM was found between shallot/garlic and soy food. Our study in Northwest China found an increased risk of MM with a family history of cancer, a diet characterized by low consumption of garlic, green tea and soy foods, and high consumption of pickled vegetables. The effect of green tea in reducing the risk of MM is an interesting new finding which should be further confirmed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

PubMed

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

Risk of lymphatic or haematopoietic cancer mortality with occupational exposure to animals or the public

PubMed Central

Svec, M; Ward, M; Dosemeci, M; Checkoway, H; De Roos, A J

2005-01-01

Background: Occupational exposure to animals or the public could result in exposure to infectious agents, which may play a role in the aetiology of lymphohaematopoietic (LH) cancers. Aims: To conduct a population based, case-control study of death certificate data from 1984 to 1998 in 24 US states in order to evaluate the risk of mortality from LH neoplasms associated with occupational exposure to animals or the public. Methods: Cases were selected as those with an underlying cause of death of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL, n = 72 589), Hodgkin's disease (HD, n = 5479), multiple myeloma (n = 35 857), or leukaemia (n = 68 598); 912 615 controls were randomly selected from all remaining deaths, frequency matched on age, sex, race, and geographic region. Results: Occupational exposure to animals was associated with modest increased risks of mortality from all four LH cancers; these associations varied by region. Occupational exposure to the public was associated with only negligible increased risk with LH cancer outcomes. Occupations involving animal exposure were predominantly agricultural, and the risks associated with employment in the livestock industry exceeded the corresponding risks associated with the crop industry for all outcomes except HD. Conclusions: Increased risks of NHL, HD, multiple myeloma, and leukaemia were associated with occupations that involved animal exposure. Regional differences in risk imply that the risks may be associated with exposure to specific livestock or farming practices. However, these associations may be confounded by other farming related exposures, such as pesticides. Because the use of death certificates to classify occupation may result in misclassification during aetiologically relevant time periods, these hypotheses should be further explored in studies with detailed information on lifetime occupation. PMID:16169919

Applying reinforcement learning techniques to detect hepatocellular carcinoma under limited screening capacity.

PubMed

Lee, Elliot; Lavieri, Mariel S; Volk, Michael L; Xu, Yongcai

2015-09-01

We investigate the problem faced by a healthcare system wishing to allocate its constrained screening resources across a population at risk for developing a disease. A patient's risk of developing the disease depends on his/her biomedical dynamics. However, knowledge of these dynamics must be learned by the system over time. Three classes of reinforcement learning policies are designed to address this problem of simultaneously gathering and utilizing information across multiple patients. We investigate a case study based upon the screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC), and optimize each of the three classes of policies using the indifference zone method. A simulation is built to gauge the performance of these policies, and their performance is compared to current practice. We then demonstrate how the benefits of learning-based screening policies differ across various levels of resource scarcity and provide metrics of policy performance.

Comparison of the risk factors effects between two populations: two alternative approaches illustrated by the analysis of first and second kidney transplant recipients

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Whereas the prognosis of second kidney transplant recipients (STR) compared to the first ones has been frequently analyzed, no study has addressed the issue of comparing the risk factor effects on graft failure between both groups. Methods Here, we propose two alternative strategies to study the heterogeneity of risk factors between two groups of patients: (i) a multiplicative-regression model for relative survival (MRS) and (ii) a stratified Cox model (SCM) specifying the graft rank as strata and assuming subvectors of the explicatives variables. These developments were motivated by the analysis of factors associated with time to graft failure (return-to-dialysis or patient death) in second kidney transplant recipients (STR) compared to the first ones. Estimation of the parameters was based on partial likelihood maximization. Monte-Carlo simulations associated with bootstrap re-sampling was performed to calculate the standard deviations for the MRS. Results We demonstrate, for the first time in renal transplantation, that: (i) male donor gender is a specific risk factor for STR, (ii) the adverse effect of recipient age is enhanced for STR and (iii) the graft failure risk related to donor age is attenuated for STR. Conclusion While the traditional Cox model did not provide original results based on the renal transplantation literature, the proposed relative and stratified models revealed new findings that are useful for clinicians. These methodologies may be of interest in other medical fields when the principal objective is the comparison of risk factors between two populations. PMID:23915191

Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children.

PubMed

Aw-Zoretic, J; Seth, D; Katzman, G; Sammet, S

2014-10-01

The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10-18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

Quantifying the dynamics of field cancerization in tobacco-related head and neck cancer: a multi-scale modeling approach

PubMed Central

Ryser, Marc D.; Lee, Walter T.; Readyz, Neal E.; Leder, Kevin Z.; Foo, Jasmine

2017-01-01

High rates of local recurrence in tobacco-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are commonly attributed to unresected fields of precancerous tissue. Since they are not easily detectable at the time of surgery without additional biopsies, there is a need for non-invasive methods to predict the extent and dynamics of these fields. Here we developed a spatial stochastic model of tobacco-related HNSCC at the tissue level and calibrated the model using a Bayesian framework and population-level incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Probabilistic model analyses were performed to predict the field geometry at time of diagnosis, and model predictions of age-specific recurrence risks were tested against outcome data from SEER. The calibrated models predicted a strong dependence of the local field size on age at diagnosis, with a doubling of the expected field diameter between ages at diagnosis of 50 and 90 years, respectively. Similarly, the probability of harboring multiple, clonally unrelated fields at the time of diagnosis were found to increase substantially with patient age. Based on these findings, we hypothesized a higher recurrence risk in older compared to younger patients when treated by surgery alone; we successfully tested this hypothesis using age-stratified outcome data. Further clinical studies are needed to validate the model predictions in a patient-specific setting. This work highlights the importance of spatial structure in models of epithelial carcinogenesis, and suggests that patient age at diagnosis may be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. Major Findings Patient age at diagnosis was found to be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. This finding challenges the current one-size-fits-all approach to surgical excision margins. PMID:27913438

A retrospective likelihood approach for efficient integration of multiple omics factors in case-control association studies.

PubMed

Balliu, Brunilda; Tsonaka, Roula; Boehringer, Stefan; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine

2015-03-01

Integrative omics, the joint analysis of outcome and multiple types of omics data, such as genomics, epigenomics, and transcriptomics data, constitute a promising approach for powerful and biologically relevant association studies. These studies often employ a case-control design, and often include nonomics covariates, such as age and gender, that may modify the underlying omics risk factors. An open question is how to best integrate multiple omics and nonomics information to maximize statistical power in case-control studies that ascertain individuals based on the phenotype. Recent work on integrative omics have used prospective approaches, modeling case-control status conditional on omics, and nonomics risk factors. Compared to univariate approaches, jointly analyzing multiple risk factors with a prospective approach increases power in nonascertained cohorts. However, these prospective approaches often lose power in case-control studies. In this article, we propose a novel statistical method for integrating multiple omics and nonomics factors in case-control association studies. Our method is based on a retrospective likelihood function that models the joint distribution of omics and nonomics factors conditional on case-control status. The new method provides accurate control of Type I error rate and has increased efficiency over prospective approaches in both simulated and real data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Novel polymorphism in FADS1 gene and fish consumption on risk of oral cancer: A case-control study in southeast China.

PubMed

Chen, Fa; Lin, Tao; Yan, Lingjun; Liu, Fengqiong; Huang, Jiangfeng; Liu, Fangping; Wu, Junfeng; Qiu, Yu; Lin, Lisong; Cai, Lin; He, Baochang

2017-02-28

The aim of this study was to investigate the independent and combined effects of fatty acid desaturase 1 (FADS1) gene polymorphism and fish consumption on oral cancer. A hospital-based case-control study was performed including 305 oral cancer patients and 579 cancer-free controls. The genotypes were determined by TaqMan genotyping assay. Non-conditional logistic regression model was used to assess the effects of FADS1 rs174549 polymorphism and fish intake. Subjects carrying A allele of rs174549 significantly reduced the risk of oral cancer (AA VS GG, OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-0.99; AA VS AG+GG, OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.46-0.98). Moreover, the statistically significant reverse associations were especially evident in men, smokers, alcohol drinkers and those age ≤ 60 years. Additionally, fish intake ≥7 times/week showed a 73% reduction in risk for oral cancer compared to those who ate fish less than 2 times/week (OR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.18-0.42). Furthermore, a significant gene-diet multiplicative interaction was observed between FADS1 rs174549 polymorphism and fish intake for oral cancer (P=0.028). This preliminary study suggests that FADS1 rs174549 polymorphism and fish consumption may be protective factors for oral cancer, with a gene-diet multiplicative interaction. Functional studies with larger samples are required to confirm our findings.

Adolescents' Depressive Symptoms and Subsequent Technology-Based Interpersonal Behaviors: A Multi-Wave Study.

PubMed

Nesi, Jacqueline; Miller, Adam B; Prinstein, Mitchell J

2017-07-01

This study examined the longitudinal effects of adolescents' depressive symptoms on engagement in technology-based social comparison and feedback seeking (SCFS) behaviors. A total of 816 adolescents (54.7% girls; M age =14.1 at Time 1) participated at three times points, each one year apart. Adolescents reported technology-based SCFS, depressive symptoms, and frequencies of technology use (cell phones, Facebook, and Instagram). Multiple group (by gender) latent growth curve models examined concurrent and lagged effects of depressive symptoms on SCFS, controlling for adolescent's underlying trajectories of SCFS and overall frequencies of technology use. Results indicated that higher levels of depressive symptoms were concurrently associated with greater SCFS after accounting for adolescents' typical patterns of SCFS. For boys only, higher depressive symptoms were prospectively associated with later increases in SCFS. Results highlight the importance of social media as a unique context in which depressed adolescents may be at risk for maladaptive interpersonal behavior.

Trends over time in congenital malformations in live-born children conceived after assisted reproductive technology.

PubMed

Henningsen, Anna-Karina A; Bergh, Christina; Skjaerven, Rolv; Tiitinen, Aila; Wennerholm, Ulla-Britt; Romundstad, Liv B; Gissler, Mika; Opdahl, Signe; Nyboe Andersen, Anders; Lidegaard, Øjvind; Forman, Julie L; Pinborg, Anja

2018-07-01

Children born after assisted reproductive technology, particularly singletons, have been shown to have an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with children born after spontaneous conception. We wished to study whether there has been a change in the past 20 years in the risk of major congenital malformations in children conceived after assisted reproductive technology compared with children spontaneously conceived. Population-based cohort study including 90 201 assisted reproductive technology children and 482 552 children spontaneously conceived, born in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Both singletons and twins born after in vitro fertilization, intracytoplasmatic sperm injection and frozen embryo transfer were included. Data on children were taken from when the national Nordic assisted reproductive technology registries were established until 2007. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the risks and adjusted odds ratios for congenital malformations in four time periods: 1988-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007. Only major malformations were included. The absolute risk for singletons of being born with a major malformation was 3.4% among assisted reproductive technology children vs. 2.9% among children spontaneously conceived during the study period. The relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation between all assisted reproductive technology children and children spontaneously conceived remained similar through all four time periods (p = 0.39). However, we found that over time the number of children diagnosed with a major malformation increased in both groups across all four time periods. When comparing children conceived after assisted reproductive technology and spontaneously conceived, the relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation did not change during the study period. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the web mvc-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS) with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs) and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. Methods We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. Results The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Conclusions Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital information system and be easily applied in other chronic diseases. PMID:21385459

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the Web MVC-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment.

PubMed

Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Chang, Chih-Hung; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liang, Wen-Miin; Wang, Jong-Yi Wang

2011-03-08

A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS) with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs) and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital information system and be easily applied in other chronic diseases.

Repeated Cross-Sectional Assessment of Commercial Truck Driver Health.

PubMed

Thiese, Matthew S; Moffitt, Gary; Hanowski, Richard J; Kales, Stefanos N; Porter, Richard J; Hegmann, Kurt T

2015-09-01

To assess relationships and trends over time in individual conditions and multiple conditions among a large sample of independent, nonoverlapping truck drivers using a repeated cross-sectional study design. Commercial driver medical examinations were conducted on 95,567 commercial drivers between January 1, 2005, and October 31, 2012. Specific medical conditions that have been identified by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's Medical Review Board as possibly increasing crash risk were examined. Prevalence and trends over time were analyzed. A total of 8 of the 13 conditions significantly increased from 2005 to 2012. Prevalence of multiple concomitant conditions also increased, with prevalence odds ratios as high as 7.39 (95% confidence interval, 3.92 to 13.98) for four or more conditions in 2012 as compared with 2005. Individual and multiple conditions thought to be associated with increased crash risk significantly increased between 2005 and 2012.

Operationalisation and validation of the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) fall risk algorithm in a nationally representative sample.

PubMed

Lohman, Matthew C; Crow, Rebecca S; DiMilia, Peter R; Nicklett, Emily J; Bruce, Martha L; Batsis, John A

2017-12-01

Preventing falls and fall-related injuries among older adults is a public health priority. The Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries (STEADI) tool was developed to promote fall risk screening and encourage coordination between clinical and community-based fall prevention resources; however, little is known about the tool's predictive validity or adaptability to survey data. Data from five annual rounds (2011-2015) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a representative cohort of adults age 65 years and older in the USA. Analytic sample respondents (n=7392) were categorised at baseline as having low, moderate or high fall risk according to the STEADI algorithm adapted for use with NHATS data. Logistic mixed-effects regression was used to estimate the association between baseline fall risk and subsequent falls and mortality. Analyses incorporated complex sampling and weighting elements to permit inferences at a national level. Participants classified as having moderate and high fall risk had 2.62 (95% CI 2.29 to 2.99) and 4.76 (95% CI 3.51 to 6.47) times greater odds of falling during follow-up compared with those with low risk, respectively, controlling for sociodemographic and health-related risk factors for falls. High fall risk was also associated with greater likelihood of falling multiple times annually but not with greater risk of mortality. The adapted STEADI clinical fall risk screening tool is a valid measure for predicting future fall risk using survey cohort data. Further efforts to standardise screening for fall risk and to coordinate between clinical and community-based fall prevention initiatives are warranted. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

HIV Risk Perception, Sexual Behavior, and HIV Prevalence among Men-Who-Have-Sex-with-Men at a Community-Based Voluntary Counseling and Testing Center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Koh, Kwee Choy; Yong, Lit Sin

2014-01-01

We describe the HIV risk perception, sexual behavior, and HIV prevalence among 423 men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) clients who received voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) services at a community-based center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The mean age was 29 years old. One hundred one (23.9%) clients rated themselves as low risk, 118 (27.9%) as medium risk, 36 (8.5%) as high risk, and 168 (39.7%) were unsure of their risk. Twenty-four (9.4%) clients tested HIV positive (4 (4%) low risk, 9 (7.6%) medium risk, 11 (30.6%) high risk, and 13 (7.7%) unsure risk). We found a positive correlation between risk perception and HIV infection in this study. Clients with high HIV risk perception have 17x the odds of testing HIV positive compared to low risk clients. High HIV risk perception was significantly associated with multiple sex partners, multiple types of sex partners, alcohol use before intercourse, unprotected sex beyond 6 months, and inconsistent condom use during anal sex compared to low risk clients. There were no statistically significant differences between medium risk and unsure risk clients compared to low risk clients. Strategies should be targeted towards change in sexual practices among those who are perceived to be at high risk.

Coronary Heart Disease Risk between Active and Inactive Women with Multiple Sclerosis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slawta, Jennifer N.; McCubbin, Jeffrey A.; Wilcox, Anthony R.; Fox, Susan D.; Nalle, Darek J.; Anderson, Gail

2002-01-01

Investigated whether abdominal fat accumulation and levels of triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose differed between 123 active and inactive women with multiple sclerosis (MS). Results indicated that low-to-moderate leisure time physical activity significantly related to less abdominal fat accumulation, lower triglyceride…

Decrypting Information Sensitivity: Risk, Privacy, and Data Protection Law in the United States and the European Union

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fazlioglu, Muge

2017-01-01

This dissertation examines the risk-based approach to privacy and data protection and the role of information sensitivity within risk management. Determining what information carries the greatest risk is a multi-layered challenge that involves balancing the rights and interests of multiple actors, including data controllers, data processors, and…

Mobile Phones and Multiple Sclerosis – A Nationwide Cohort Study in Denmark

PubMed Central

Harbo Poulsen, Aslak; Stenager, Egon; Johansen, Christoffer; Bentzen, Joan; Friis, Søren; Schüz, Joachim

2012-01-01

We investigated the risk of, prognosis of and symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS) among all Danish residents who owned a mobile phone subscription before 1996. Using the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and Civil Registration System, study subjects were followed up for MS through 2004. Poisson models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR, age range: 18–64 years) and mortality rate ratios (MRR, age range: 18+) and to compare presenting symptoms among subscribers and all non-subscribers. A total of 405 971 subscription holders accrued four million years of follow up, with men accounting for 86% of the observation time. Among subscription holding men, the IRR of MS was close to unity, overall as well as 13+ years after first subscription (IRR 1.02, 95% CI: 0.48–2.16). Among women, the IRR was 3.43 (95% CI: 0.86–13.72) 13+ years after first subscription, however, based on only two cases. Presenting symptoms of MS differed between subscribers and non-subscribers (p = 0.03), with slightly increased risk of diplopia in both genders (IRR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.02–1.86), an increased risk of fatigue among women (IRR: 3.02, 95% CI: 1.45–6.28), and of optic neuritis among men (IRR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.03–1.86). Overall the MRR was close to one (MRR: 0.91, 95%CI 0.70–1.19) among MS-patients with a subscription and although we observed some increased MRR estimates among women, these were based on small numbers. In conclusion, we found little evidence for a pronounced association between mobile phone use and risk of MS or mortality rate among MS patients. Symptoms of MS differed between subscribers and nonsubscribers for symptoms previously suggested to be associated with mobile phone use. This deserves further attention, as does the increased long-term risk of MS among female subscribers, although small numbers and lack of consistency between genders prevent causal interpretation. PMID:22558088

DEVELOPMENT AND PEER REVIEW OF TIME-TO-EFFECT MODELS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF NEUROTOXICITY AND OTHER TIME DEPENDENT DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Neurobehavioral studies pose unique challenges for dose-response modeling, including small sample size and relatively large intra-subject variation, repeated measurements over time, multiple endpoints with both continuous and ordinal scales, and time dependence of risk characteri...

Adolescent Maltreatment in the Child Welfare System and Developmental Patterns of Sexual Risk Behaviors

PubMed Central

Fowler, Patrick J.; Motley, Darnell; Zhang, Jinjin; Rolls-Reutz, Jennifer; Landsverk, John

2018-01-01

In this longitudinal study, we tested whether adolescent maltreatment and out-of-home placement as a response to maltreatment altered developmental patterns of sexual risk behaviors in a nationally representative sample of youth involved in the child welfare system. Participants included adolescents aged 13 to 17 (M=15.5, SD=1.49) at baseline (n=714), followed over 18 months. Computer-assisted interviews were used to collect self-reported sexual practices and experiences of physical and psychological abuse at both time points. Latent transition analyses were used to identify three patterns of sexual risk behaviors: abstainers, safe sex with multiple partners, and unsafe sex with multiple partners. Most adolescents transitioned to safer sexual behavior patterns over time. Adolescents exhibiting the riskiest sexual practices at baseline were most likely to report subsequent abuse and less likely to be placed into out-of-home care. Findings provide a more nuanced understanding of sexual risk among child welfare–involved adolescents and inform practices to promote positive transitions within the system. PMID:25155702

Prevalence and risk factors for myopia in second-grade primary school children in Taipei: A population-based study.

PubMed

Hsu, Chih-Chien; Huang, Nicole; Lin, Pei-Yu; Tsai, Der-Chong; Tsai, Ching-Yao; Woung, Lin-Chung; Liu, Catherine Jui-Ling

2016-11-01

High myopia is associated with multiple ocular morbidities that may lead to irreversible blindness. Because high myopia in an adult is thought to be related to onset of myopia in very early childhood, detecting myopia early and working to improve modifiable risk factors may help reduce the development of high myopia. In this study, we tried to evaluate the prevalence of myopia and associated risk factors in second-grade primary school children in Taipei, Taiwan. A questionnaire was distributed to the participants' parents, and their written informed consent was obtained before performing eye examinations that included visual acuity testing and cycloplegic autorefraction. Multiple logistic regression models were applied to assess possible risk factors associated with myopia. Myopia was defined as spherical equivalent of -0.50 D or less in either eye. The prevalence of myopia in the second graders was 36.4%. After adjustment for other characteristics, the following variables were significantly associated with a higher risk of myopia: male sex [odds ratio (OR)=1.24, p<0.001]; suburban residence (vs. urban; OR=1.10, p=0.02); lower maternal education level (OR=1.25, p<0.001); the presence of myopia in one parent (OR=1.66, p<0.001) or both parents (OR=2.82, p<0.001); time spent on near-work activity every day (OR=1.21, p<0.001); shorter visual distance when doing near-work activity (OR=1.17, p<0.001); and participation in an after-school tutorial program (OR=1.20, p<0.001). By contrast, resting after 30 minutes of near-work activity (OR=0.84, p<0.001) and spending more time participating in outdoor activities on weekends (OR=0.91, p=0.03) were significantly associated with a lower risk of myopia. Our findings indicate that lifestyle and reading habits impact the development of myopia during early childhood. Behavior modification, such as more time spent outside during the day and limited near-work activity, may be a feasible strategy for curbing the increasingly high prevalence of myopia in Taipei. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.

Interactions between occupational exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields and chemicals for brain tumour risk in the INTEROCC study.

PubMed

Turner, Michelle C; Benke, Geza; Bowman, Joseph D; Figuerola, Jordi; Fleming, Sarah; Hours, Martine; Kincl, Laurel; Krewski, Daniel; McLean, Dave; Parent, Marie-Elise; Richardson, Lesley; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlaefer, Klaus; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Schüz, Joachim; Siemiatycki, Jack; Tongeren, Martie van; Cardis, Elisabeth

2017-11-01

In absence of clear evidence regarding possible effects of occupational chemical exposures on brain tumour aetiology, it is worthwhile to explore the hypothesis that such exposures might act on brain tumour risk in interaction with occupational exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF). INTEROCC is a seven-country (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, New Zealand and UK), population-based, case-control study, based on the larger INTERPHONE study. Incident cases of primary glioma and meningioma were ascertained from 2000 to 2004. Job titles were coded into standard international occupational classifications and estimates of ELF and chemical exposures were assigned based on job-exposure matrices. Dichotomous indicators of cumulative ELF (≥50th vs <50th percentile, 1-4 year exposure time window) and chemical exposures (ever vs never, 5-year lag) were created. Interaction was assessed on both the additive and multiplicative scales. A total of 1939 glioma cases, 1822 meningioma cases and 5404 controls were included in the analysis, using conditional logistic regression. There was no clear evidence for interactions between ELF and any of the chemical exposures assessed for either glioma or meningioma risk. For glioma, subjects in the low ELF/metal exposed group had a lower risk than would be predicted from marginal effects. Results were similar according to different exposure time windows, to cut-points of exposure or in exposed-only analyses. There was no clear evidence for interactions between occupational ELF and chemical exposures in relation to glioma or meningioma risk observed. Further research with more refined estimates of occupational exposures is recommended. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Assessing network scale-up estimates for groups most at risk of HIV/AIDS: evidence from a multiple-method study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

Salganik, Matthew J; Fazito, Dimitri; Bertoni, Neilane; Abdo, Alexandre H; Mello, Maeve B; Bastos, Francisco I

2011-11-15

One of the many challenges hindering the global response to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic is the difficulty of collecting reliable information about the populations most at risk for the disease. Thus, the authors empirically assessed a promising new method for estimating the sizes of most at-risk populations: the network scale-up method. Using 4 different data sources, 2 of which were from other researchers, the authors produced 5 estimates of the number of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil. The authors found that the network scale-up and generalized network scale-up estimators produced estimates 5-10 times higher than estimates made using standard methods (the multiplier method and the direct estimation method using data from 2004 and 2010). Given that equally plausible methods produced such a wide range of results, the authors recommend that additional studies be undertaken to compare estimates based on the scale-up method with those made using other methods. If scale-up-based methods routinely produce higher estimates, this would suggest that scale-up-based methods are inappropriate for populations most at risk of HIV/AIDS or that standard methods may tend to underestimate the sizes of these populations.

Multiple Peer Group Self-Identification and Adolescent Tobacco Use

PubMed Central

Fuqua, Juliana L.; Gallaher, Peggy E.; Unger, Jennifer B.; Trinidad, Dennis R.; Sussman, Steve; Ortega, Enrique; Johnson, C. Anderson

2014-01-01

Associations between peer group self-identification and smoking were examined among 2,698 ethnically diverse middle school students in Los Angeles who self-identified with groups such as Rockers, Skaters, and Gamers. The sample was 47.1% male, 54.7% Latino, 25.4% Asian, 10.8% White, 9.1% Other ethnicity, and 59.3% children of immigrant parents. Multiple group self-identification was common: 84% identified with two or more groups and 65% identified with three or more groups. Logistic regression analyses indicated that as students endorsed more high-risk groups, the greater their risk of tobacco use. A classification tree analysis identified risk groups based on interactions among ethnicity, gender, and group self-identification. Psychographic targeting based on group self-identification could be useful to design more relevant smoking prevention messages for adolescents who identify with high-risk peer groups. PMID:22458850

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new infrastructure under nonstationarity, and an examination of risk adaptation measures which consider both short term and long term options simultaneously.

Relationship between physical activity, physical fitness and multiple metabolic risk in youths from Muzambinho's study.

PubMed

Barbosa, João Paulo Dos Anjos Souza; Basso, Luciano; Seabra, André; Prista, Antonio; Tani, Go; Maia, José António Ribeiro; Forjaz, Cláudia Lúcia De Moraes

2016-08-01

Negative associations between physical activity (PA), physical fitness and multiple metabolic risk factors (MMRF) in youths from populations with low PA are reported. The persistence of this association in moderately-to highly active populations is not, however, well established. The aim of the present study was to investigate this association in a Brazilian city with high frequency of active youths. We assessed 122 subjects (9.9 ± 1.3 years) from Muzambinho city. Body mass index, waist circumference, glycaemia, cholesterolaemia, systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured. Maximal handgrip strength and one-mile walk/run test were used. Leisure time PA was assessed by interview. Poisson regression was used in the analysis. The model explained 11% of the total variance. Only relative muscular strength and one-mile walk/run were statistically significant (p < .05). Those who needed more time to cover the one-mile walk/run test had an increased in metabolic risk of 11%, and those with greater strength reduced the risk by about 82%. In conclusion, children and youths from an active population who need less time to cover the one-mile walk/run test or who had greater muscular strength showed a reduced metabolic risk. These results suggest that even in children and youths with high leisure time PA, a greater aerobic fitness and strength might help to further reduce their MMRF.

Management strategy in pregnancies with elevated second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein based on a second assay.

PubMed

Spaggiari, Emmanuel; Ruas, Marie; Dreux, Sophie; Valat, Anne-Sylvie; Czerkiewicz, Isabelle; Guimiot, Fabien; Schmitz, Thomas; Delezoide, Anne-Lise; Muller, Françoise

2013-04-01

To assess maternal-fetal outcomes in pregnancies associated with persistently elevated second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein. A retrospective cohort study in 658 patients with maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein ≥2.5 multiple of median, performed at routine Down syndrome screening. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein was assayed a second time in 341 of them. Outcomes were recorded in all cases. The group with unexplained maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein persistently ≥2.5 multiple of median was associated with more pregnancy complications 37 of 92 (40.2%) as fetal death, preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction, and congenital nephrotic syndrome, compared with the group with maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein that returned to a normal level 37 of 226 (16.4%) (P < .001). When maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein returns to a normal level on a second assay, the risk of adverse outcome significantly decreases, but these pregnancies are still at risk of complications and therefore need close surveillance. Repeat maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein assay allows identification of patients who should be offered amniocentesis to evaluate the risk of nephrotic syndrome and epidermolysis bullosa. Alpha-fetoprotein should be monitored in pregnancies associated with unexplained high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein. A management strategy based on ultrasound examination, second maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein assay and amniocentesis is proposed to improve prenatal counseling and management of such pregnancies. However, a prospective study remains necessary to evaluate it. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

2017-01-01

Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for forested habitats in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe

2012-01-01

We used a risk matrix to assess risk from climate change for multiple forest species by discussing an example that depicts a range of risk for three tree species of northern Wisconsin. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or effects of that event. In the context of species habitats, likelihood is related to...

Micropropagation of tulip: production of virus-free stock plants.

PubMed

Podwyszyńska, Małgorzata; Sochacki, Dariusz

2010-01-01

We describe here a new tulip micropropagation method based on the cyclic shoot multiplication in presence of the thidiazuron (TDZ), which enables the production of virus-free stock plants, speeds up breeding, and provides new genotypes for the market. In our novel protocol, cyclic shoot multiplication can be performed for 2-3 years by using TDZ instead of other cytokinins, as 6-benzylaminopurine (BAP) and N(6)-(-isopentyl)adenine (2iP). It makes possible to produce 500-2,000 microbulbs from one healthy plant. There are six main stages of tulip micropropagation. Stage 0 is the selection of true-to-type and virus-free plants, confirmed by ELISA. Fragments of flower stems isolated from bulbs are used as initial explants. Shoot multiplication is based on the regeneration of adventitious shoots, which are sub-cultured every 8 weeks. In the Stage 3, the specially prepared shoots are induced by low temperature treatment to form bulbs which finally develop on a sucrose-rich medium at 20 degrees C. Bulbs are then dried for 6 weeks and rooted in vivo. The number of multiplication subcultures should be limited to 5-10 cycles in order to lower the risk of mutation. Virus indexing should be repeated 3-4 times, at the initial stage and then during shoot multiplication. Genetic stability of micropropagated shoots can be confirmed using molecular markers.

Time trends in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Norway during eight decades

PubMed Central

Grytten, N; Torkildsen, Ø; Myhr, K-M

2015-01-01

Norway has been subjected to numerous epidemiological investigations on the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS), dating back to 1935. The objective of this study was to review the studies on the prevalence and incidence of MS in Norway, provide an update on the prevalence of MS in Norway, and describe the time trends in the prevalence and incidence of MS in relation to risk factors, case ascertainment, and data. We performed a systematic search on PubMed and MEDLINE up to November 2014 using the search string ‘multiple sclerosis prevalence in Norway’ or ‘multiple sclerosis incidence in Norway’. In addition, we scrutinized the reference lists of the publications identified for relevant citations. We retrieved data on the distribution of MS in Norway on December 31, 2013 from the Norwegian Multiple Sclerosis Registry and Biobank and the Norwegian Patient Registry. We identified 29 articles. From 1961 to 2014, the reported prevalence of MS increased from 20 to 203 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the incidence increased from 1.9 to 8.0 per 100,000. The nationwide crude prevalence in Norway, based on the Norwegian Patient Registry, was 208 per 100,000 on December 31, 2013. The reported prevalence of MS in Norway has increased 10-fold, with several possible causes. During eight decades, neurological health services have generally become more accessible to the population, and transforming diagnostic criteria has made the diagnosis of MS more precise and valid. There have also been changes in lifestyle behavior and known risk factors, such as vitamin D and smoking, that might have contributed to the increased incidence of MS. A possible role of increased survival in MS needs to be examined further. This article is commented on by Berg-Hansen et al, published in 132: 364–367 (DOI: 10.1111/ane.12489). PMID:26046556

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

Adaptation of a Counseling Intervention to Address Multiple Cancer Risk Factors Among Overweight/Obese Latino Smokers

PubMed Central

Castro, Yessenia; Fernández, Maria E.; Strong, Larkin L.; Stewart, Diana W.; Krasny, Sarah; Robles, Eden Hernandez; Heredia, Natalia; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Eakin, Elizabeth; Resnicow, Ken; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Wetter, David W.

2015-01-01

More than 60% of cancer-related deaths in the United States are attributable to tobacco use, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity, and these risk factors tend to cluster together. Thus, strategies for cancer risk reduction would benefit from addressing multiple health risk behaviors. We adapted an evidence-based intervention grounded in social cognitive theory and principles of motivational interviewing originally developed for smoking cessation to also address physical activity and fruit/vegetable consumption among Latinos exhibiting multiple health risk behaviors. Literature reviews, focus groups, expert consultation, pretesting, and pilot testing were used to inform adaptation decisions. We identified common mechanisms underlying change in smoking, physical activity, and diet used as treatment targets; identified practical models of patient-centered cross-cultural service provision; and identified that family preferences and support as particularly strong concerns among the priority population. Adaptations made to the original intervention are described. The current study is a practical example of how an intervention can be adapted to maximize relevance and acceptability and also maintain the core elements of the original evidence-based intervention. The intervention has significant potential to influence cancer prevention efforts among Latinos in the United States and is being evaluated in a sample of 400 Latino overweight/obese smokers. PMID:25527143

Erythropoietin-Stimulating Agents and Survival in End-Stage Renal Disease: Comparison of Payment Policy Analysis, Instrumental Variables, and Multiple Imputation of Potential Outcomes

PubMed Central

Dore, David D.; Swaminathan, Shailender; Gutman, Roee; Trivedi, Amal N.; Mor, Vincent

2013-01-01

Objective To compare the assumptions and estimands across three approaches to estimating the effect of erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs) on mortality. Study Design and Setting Using data from the Renal Management Information System, we conducted two analyses utilizing a change to bundled payment that we hypothesized mimicked random assignment to ESA (pre-post, difference-in-difference, and instrumental variable analyses). A third analysis was based on multiply imputing potential outcomes using propensity scores. Results There were 311,087 recipients of ESAs and 13,095 non-recipients. In the pre-post comparison, we identified no clear relationship between bundled payment (measured by calendar time) and the incidence of death within six months (risk difference -1.5%; 95% CI - 7.0% to 4.0%). In the instrumental variable analysis, the risk of mortality was similar among ESA recipients (risk difference -0.9%; 95% CI -2.1 to 0.3). In the multiple imputation analysis, we observed a 4.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.9%) absolute reduction in mortality risk with use of ESAs, but closer to the null for patients with baseline hematocrit >36%. Conclusion Methods emanating from different disciplines often rely on different assumptions, but can be informative about a similar causal contrast. The implications of these distinct approaches are discussed. PMID:23849152

Can histologic transformation of follicular lymphoma be predicted and prevented?

PubMed

Kridel, Robert; Sehn, Laurie H; Gascoyne, Randy D

2017-07-20

Transformation to aggressive lymphoma is a critical event in the clinical course of follicular lymphoma (FL) patients. Yet, it is a challenge to reliably predict transformation at the time of diagnosis. Understanding the risk of transformation would be useful for guiding and monitoring patients, as well as for evaluating novel treatment strategies that could potentially prevent transformation. Herein, we review the contribution of clinical, pathological, and genetic risk factors to transformation. Patients with multiple clinical high-risk factors are at elevated risk of transformation but we are currently lacking a prognostic index that would specifically address transformation rather than disease progression or overall survival. From the biological standpoint, multiple studies have correlated individual biomarkers with transformation. However, accurate prediction of this event is currently hampered by our limited knowledge of the evolutionary pathways leading to transformation, as well as the scarcity of comprehensive, large-scale studies that assess both the genomic landscape of alterations within tumor cells and the composition of the microenvironment. Liquid biopsies hold great promise for achieving precision medicine. Indeed, mutations detected within circulating tumor DNA may be a better reflection of the inherent intratumoral heterogeneity than the biopsy of a single site. Last, we will assess whether evidence exists in the literature that transformation might be prevented altogether, based on the choice of therapy for FL. © 2017 by The American Society of Hematology.

Reduced Sexual Risk Behaviors Among Young Men of Color Who Have Sex with Men: Findings from the Community-Based Organization Behavioral Outcomes of Many Men, Many Voices (CBOP-3MV) Project.

PubMed

Stein, Renee; Shapatava, Ekaterine; Williams, Weston; Griffin, Tanesha; Bell, Kelly; Lyons, Bridget; Uhl, Gary

2015-11-01

In 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded community-based organizations (CBOs) to deliver Many Men, Many Voices (3MV) to young men of color who have sex with men. Although 3MV, a group-level behavioral intervention designed to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk behaviors of black men who have sex with men (MSM), has shown effectiveness when delivered in a controlled research environment, there is limited evidence that the intervention is associated with similar outcomes in "real world" settings. For the current project, CDC funded three CBOs to conduct outcome monitoring of the 3MV intervention to determine if young MSM of color report changes in HIV risk behaviors postintervention. Using a repeated measures design, risk behaviors were collected at baseline and again at 3 and 6 months postintervention. Changes in risk behaviors were assessed using generalized estimating equations. Participants (n = 337) reported decreases in sexual risk behaviors at both follow-up time points, such as sex without a condom, sex without a condom and multiple partners, and sex without a condom with serodiscordant or status unknown partners. Results suggest that 3MV may be an effective tool for reducing HIV risk behaviors in this critical target population.

Parents with mental health problems and their children in a German population based sample: Results of the BELLA study.

PubMed

Plass-Christl, Angela; Haller, Anne-Catherine; Otto, Christiane; Barkmann, Claus; Wiegand-Grefe, Silke; Hölling, Heike; Schulte-Markwort, Michael; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike; Klasen, Fionna

2017-01-01

Mental health problems (MHP) of parents are associated with an increased risk of psychological and developmental difficulties in their children. This study aims at analyzing population-based data of parents with MHP and their children and the effects of associated risk factors in order to further targeted preventive and therapeutic interventions. The BELLA study is the mental health module of the German National Health Interview and Examination Survey among Children and Adolescents. MHP in parents and in their children as well as associated risk factors were examined in a sample of N = 1158 parents with children aged 11 to 17 years. Parental MHP were identified in 18.6% of the sample. Risk factors associated with parental MHP were low SES, parental unemployment, stressful life events, parental daily strain, parental chronic disease, and child MHP. A rate of 19.1% of the children of parents with MHP reported MHP themselves, the corresponding rate among children of parents without MHP was 7.7%. In multiple regression analyses the risk for children of parents with MHP to report MHP themselves was almost two times higher than the risk of children of parents without MHP. Other significant associations with child MHP included gender, the parents' age, and stressful life events. Parental MHP constitute a significant risk for the mental health of their children. Targeted screening methods and preventive interventions are needed.

Association of urinary metal profiles with altered glucose levels and diabetes risk: a population-based study in China.

PubMed

Feng, Wei; Cui, Xiuqing; Liu, Bing; Liu, Chuanyao; Xiao, Yang; Lu, Wei; Guo, Huan; He, Meian; Zhang, Xiaomin; Yuan, Jing; Chen, Weihong; Wu, Tangchun

2015-01-01

Elevated heavy metals and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were both associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. However, studies on the associations of heavy metals and essential elements with altered FPG and diabetes risk were limited or conflicting. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential associations of heavy metals and essential trace elements with FPG and diabetes risk among general Chinese population. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the associations of urinary concentrations of 23 metals with FPG, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes among 2242 community-based Chinese adults in Wuhan. We used the false discovery rate (FDR) method to correct for multiple hypothesis tests. After adjusting for potential confounders, urinary aluminum, titanium, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, strontium, molybdenum, cadmium, antimony, barium, tungsten and lead were associated with altered FPG, IFG or diabetes risk (all P< 0.05); arsenic was only dose-dependently related to diabetes (P< 0.05). After additional adjustment for multiple testing, titanium, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, tungsten and lead were still significantly associated with one or more outcomes (all FDR-adjusted P< 0.05). Our results suggest that multiple metals in urine are associated with FPG, IFG or diabetes risk. Because the cross-sectional design precludes inferences about causality, further prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings.

Rift Valley fever risk map model and seroprevalence in selected wild ungulates and camels from Kenya

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since the first isolation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the 1930s, there have been multiple epizootics and epidemics in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospective climate-based models have recently been developed that flag areas at risk of RVFV transmission in endemic regions based...

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

2017-03-21

The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

2017-01-01

The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

IMPROVING THE TMDL PROCESS USING WATERSHED RISK ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. This has many similarities tothe placed-based analuses that are undertaken to develop total maximum daily loads...

Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes

PubMed Central

Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

2015-01-01

Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes. PMID:26294903

Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes.

PubMed

Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

2015-01-01

Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes.

Tool for Ranking Research Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ortiz, James N.; Scott, Kelly; Smith, Harold

2005-01-01

Tool for Research Enhancement Decision Support (TREDS) is a computer program developed to assist managers in ranking options for research aboard the International Space Station (ISS). It could likely also be adapted to perform similar decision-support functions in industrial and academic settings. TREDS provides a ranking of the options, based on a quantifiable assessment of all the relevant programmatic decision factors of benefit, cost, and risk. The computation of the benefit for each option is based on a figure of merit (FOM) for ISS research capacity that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative inputs. Qualitative inputs are gathered and partly quantified by use of the time-tested analytical hierarchical process and used to set weighting factors in the FOM corresponding to priorities determined by the cognizant decision maker(s). Then by use of algorithms developed specifically for this application, TREDS adjusts the projected benefit for each option on the basis of levels of technical implementation, cost, and schedule risk. Based partly on Excel spreadsheets, TREDS provides screens for entering cost, benefit, and risk information. Drop-down boxes are provided for entry of qualitative information. TREDS produces graphical output in multiple formats that can be tailored by users.

Communication-based assessment of developmental age for young children with developmental disabilities.

PubMed

DeVeney, Shari L; Hoffman, Lesa; Cress, Cynthia J

2012-06-01

In this study, the authors compared a multiple-domain strategy for assessing developmental age of young children with developmental disabilities who were at risk for long-term reliance on augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) with a communication-based strategy composed of receptive language and communication indices that may be less affected by physically challenging tasks than traditional developmental age scores. Participants were 42 children (age 9-27 months) with developmental disabilities and who were at risk for long-term reliance on AAC. Children were assessed longitudinally in their homes at 3 occasions over 18 months using multiple-domain and communication-based measures. Confirmatory factor analysis examined dimensionality across the measures, and age-equivalence scores under each strategy were compared, where possible. The communication-based latent factor of developmental age demonstrated good reliability and was almost perfectly correlated with the multiple-domain latent factor. However, the mean age-equivalence score of the communication-based assessment significantly exceeded that of the multiple-domain assessment by 5.3 months across ages. Clinicians working with young children with developmental disabilities should consider a communication-based approach as an alternative developmental age assessment strategy for characterizing children's capabilities, identifying challenges, and developing interventions. A communication-based developmental age estimation is sufficiently reliable and may result in more valid inferences about developmental age for children whose developmental or cognitive age scores may otherwise be limited by their physical capabilities.

Biomechanical evaluation of nursing tasks in a hospital setting.

PubMed

Jang, R; Karwowski, W; Quesada, P M; Rodrick, D; Sherehiy, B; Cronin, S N; Layer, J K

2007-11-01

A field study was conducted to investigate spinal kinematics and loading in the nursing profession using objective and subjective measurements of selected nursing tasks observed in a hospital setting. Spinal loading was estimated using trunk motion dynamics measured by the lumbar motion monitor (LMM) and lower back compressive and shear forces were estimated using the three-dimensional (3D) Static Strength Prediction Program. Subjective measures included the rate of perceived physical effort and the perceived risk of low back pain. A multiple logistic regression model, reported in the literature for predicting low back injury based on defined risk groups, was tested. The study results concluded that the major risk factors for low back injury in nurses were the weight of patients handled, trunk moment, and trunk axial rotation. The activities that required long time exposure to awkward postures were perceived by nurses as a high physical effort. This study also concluded that self-reported perceived exertion could be used as a tool to identify nursing activities with a high risk of low-back injury.

Sexual Orientation Disparities in Sexually Transmitted Infection Risk Behaviors and Risk Determinants Among Sexually Active Adolescent Males: Results From a School-Based Sample

PubMed Central

Schnarrs, Phillip W.; Rosario, Margaret; Garofalo, Robert; Mustanski, Brian

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined disparities in risk determinants and risk behaviors for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) between gay-identified, bisexual-identified, and heterosexual-identified young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and heterosexual-identified young men who have sex with women (YMSW) using a school-based sample of US sexually active adolescent males. Methods. We analyzed a pooled data set of Youth Risk Behavior Surveys from 2005 and 2007 that included information on sexual orientation identity, sexual behaviors, and multiple STI risk factors. Results. Bisexual-identified adolescents were more likely to report multiple STI risk behaviors (number of sex partners, concurrent sex partners, and age of sexual debut) compared with heterosexual YMSW as well as heterosexual YMSM and gay-identified respondents. Gay, bisexual, and heterosexual YMSM were significantly more likely to report forced sex compared with heterosexual YMSW. Conclusions. Our results provide evidence that sexual health disparities emerge early in the life course and vary by both sexual orientation identity and sexual behaviors. In particular, they show that bisexual-identified adolescent males exhibit a unique risk profile that warrants targeted sexual health interventions. PMID:24825214

Increased risks of tic disorders in children with epilepsy: A nation-wide population-based case-control study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Weng, Wen-Chin; Huang, Hui-Ling; Wong, Lee Chin; Jong, Yuh-Jyh; Yin, Yun-Ju; Chen, Hong-An; Lee, Wang-Tso; Ho, Shinn-Ying

2016-01-01

Both epilepsy and tic disorders may share common mechanisms with the involvement of abnormal cortical-basal ganglion circuit connection and dopaminergic dysfunction. However, the association between epilepsy and tic disorders has never been studied. This study investigated the risks of developing tic disorders among children with epilepsy using databases of a universal health insurance system in Taiwan. The data analyzed in this study were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. The study cohort included children with epilepsy between 2001 and 2007 (n=2629) and a three-fold age- and gender-matched controls (n=7887). All subjects were followed up for 3 years from the date of cohort entry to identify their admissions due to tic disorders (ICD-9-CM codes 307.2, 307.20-307.23). Cox hazard regression analysis was performed to estimate the effect of epilepsy on the occurrence of tics. The epilepsy cohort had a higher prevalence of tics (1.7% vs. 0.2%), and a 8.70-fold increased risk of developing a tic disorder compared with the controls (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 8.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.26-16.37, p<0.001). Male patients were observed to have a higher risk of developing a tic disorder (AHR 1.90, 95% CI=1.04-3.46, p<0.001) compared to female individuals. Patients with multiple antiepileptic drugs treatment also exhibited higher crude OR for developing tic disorders. This nationwide population-based cohort study, for the first time, demonstrated that there is a significantly increased risk for tic disorders among children with epilepsy. We also found males, attention deficit disorder and the use of multiple AEDs to be independent risk factors of tic disorders. Closely evaluating possible tic disorders would be crucial for improving the outcome and life quality in children with epilepsy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation Risks of Leukemia, Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma Incidence in the Mayak Cohort: 1948–2004

PubMed Central

Kuznetsova, Irina S.; Labutina, Elena V.; Hunter, Nezahat

2016-01-01

Incidence of all types of lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers, including Hodgkin’s lymphoma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, multiple myeloma, acute and chronic myeloid leukemia (AML and CML respectively), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other forms of leukemia have been studied in a cohort of 22,373 workers employed at the Mayak Production Association (PA) main facilities during 536,126 person-years of follow-up from the start of employment between 1948 and 1982 to the end of 2004. Risk assessment was performed for both external gamma-radiation and internal alpha-exposure of red bone marrow due to incorporated Pu-239 using Mayak Workers Dosimetry System 2008 taking into account non-radiation factors. The incidence of leukemia excluding CLL showed a non-linear dose response relationship for external gamma exposure with exponential effect modifiers based on time since exposure and age at exposure. Among the major subtypes of leukemia, the excess risk of AML was the highest within the first 2–5 years of external exposure (ERR per Gy: 38.40; 90% CI: 13.92–121.4) and decreased substantially thereafter, but the risks remained statistically significant (ERR per Gy: 2.63; 90% CI: 0.07–12.55). In comparison, excess CML first occurred 5 years after exposure and decreased about 10 years after exposure, although the association was not statistically significant (ERR per Gy: 1.39; 90% CI: -0.22–7.32). The study found no evidence of an association between leukemia and occupational exposure to internal plutonium ERR per Gy 2.13; 90% CI: <0–9.45). There was also no indication of any relationship with either external gamma or internal plutonium radiation exposure for either incidence of Hodgkin or non-Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma. PMID:27631102

Epidemiologic characteristics of anophthalmia and bilateral microphthalmia among 2.5 million births in California, 1989-1997.

PubMed

Shaw, Gary M; Carmichael, Suzan L; Yang, Wei; Harris, John A; Finnell, Richard H; Lammer, Edward J

2005-08-15

There is a paucity of epidemiologic information about the eye malformations anophthalmia and microphthalmia. Using data from a large population-based registry, we explored prevalences and maternal/infant characteristics associated with anophthalmia and bilateral microphthalmia. Data were derived from the California Birth Defects Monitoring Program, a population-based active surveillance system for collecting information on infants and fetuses with congenital malformations using multiple source ascertainment. Approximately 2.5 million births (liveborn and stillborn) occurred during the ascertainment period, 1989-1997. Information on maternal and infant/fetal characteristics was obtained from California birth certificate and fetal death files. The prevalence per 10,000 livebirths and stillbirths for anophthalmia was 0.18 and for bilateral microphthalmia was 0.22. These estimates reflect prevalences among births without chromosomal anomalies. Relative risks of anophthalmia were modestly higher among women aged 40 or more (relative risk = 2.0, 95% confidence interval 0.5-8.6). Risks were substantially lower for those mothers with >12 years of education, even after adjusting for other study factors, relative risk = 0.6 (0.2-1.7). The risk of anophthalmia was approximately twofold among multiple births compared to singletons. Similar to results for anophthalmia, decreased risks for bilateral microphthalmia were observed for maternal education of 12 years or more and increased risks observed for multiple births. These data show descriptive epidemiologic features of anophthalmia and bilateral microphthalmia. Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Summarizing the incidence of adverse events using volcano plots and time intervals.

PubMed

Zink, Richard C; Wolfinger, Russell D; Mann, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

Adverse event incidence analyses are a critical component for describing the safety profile of any new intervention. The results typically are presented in lengthy summary tables. For therapeutic areas where patients have frequent adverse events, analysis and interpretation are made more difficult by the sheer number and variety of events that occur. Understanding the risk in these instances becomes even more crucial. We describe a space-saving graphical summary that overcomes the limitations of traditional presentations of adverse events and improves interpretability of the safety profile. We present incidence analyses of adverse events graphically using volcano plots to highlight treatment differences. Data from a clinical trial of patients experiencing an aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage are used for illustration. Adjustments for multiplicity are illustrated. Color is used to indicate the treatment with higher incidence; bubble size represents the total number of events that occur in the treatment arms combined. Adjustments for multiple comparisons are displayed in a manner to indicate clearly those events for which the difference between treatment arms is statistically significant. Furthermore, adverse events can be displayed by time intervals, with multiple volcano plots or animation to appreciate changes in adverse event risk over time. Such presentations can emphasize early differences across treatments that may resolve later or highlight events for which treatment differences may become more substantial with longer follow-up. Treatment arms are compared in a pairwise fashion. Volcano plots are space-saving tools that emphasize important differences between the adverse event profiles of two treatment arms. They can incorporate multiplicity adjustments in a manner that is straightforward to interpret and, by using time intervals, can illustrate how adverse event risk changes over the course of a clinical trial.

A Case-Control Study Estimating Accident Risk for Alcohol, Medicines and Illegal Drugs

PubMed Central

Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

2012-01-01

Background The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. Methods A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Results Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. Conclusion The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope. PMID:22952694

WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS TO ASSESS THE EFFECTS OF MERCURY AND HABITAT ALTERATION ON POPULATIONS OF AQUATIC-DEPENDENT WILDLIFE

EPA Science Inventory

NHEERL is conducting a demonstration project to develop tools and approaches for assessing the risks of multiple stressors to populations of piscivorous wildlife, leading to the development of risk-based criteria. Specifically, we are developing methods and approaches to assess...

Art Therapy Programs with At-Risk Students in Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varallo, Patrick A.

2012-01-01

Educating and meeting the multiple needs of students at risk of low academic achievement has been a growing concern for public schools in the United States. Many at-risk students require alternative school-based interventions. This study examined the operation, premise, and objectives of art therapy integrated in 14 school districts across the…

A Twin Study of Objective and Subjective Pubertal Timing and Peer Influence on Risk-Taking.

PubMed

Kretsch, Natalie; Mendle, Jane; Harden, K Paige

2016-03-01

The current study used a behavioral genetic design to test whether three measures of pubertal timing moderated peer influence on risk-taking in a sample of 248 female adolescent twin pairs ( M age =16.0, SD =1.5) from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Peer influence was operationalized as the quasi-causal association between girls' self-reported risk-taking and the risk-taking reported by their friends. Girls with earlier ages at menarche and who perceived themselves as more developed than peers were more susceptible to peer influence on risk-taking. However, age-standardized ratings of body changes did not moderate peer influence. This study highlights distinctions between multiple measures of pubertal timing, using an innovative synthesis of genetically informative data and peer nomination data.

A Twin Study of Objective and Subjective Pubertal Timing and Peer Influence on Risk-Taking

PubMed Central

Kretsch, Natalie; Mendle, Jane; Harden, K. Paige

2014-01-01

The current study used a behavioral genetic design to test whether three measures of pubertal timing moderated peer influence on risk-taking in a sample of 248 female adolescent twin pairs (Mage=16.0, SD=1.5) from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Peer influence was operationalized as the quasi-causal association between girls' self-reported risk-taking and the risk-taking reported by their friends. Girls with earlier ages at menarche and who perceived themselves as more developed than peers were more susceptible to peer influence on risk-taking. However, age-standardized ratings of body changes did not moderate peer influence. This study highlights distinctions between multiple measures of pubertal timing, using an innovative synthesis of genetically informative data and peer nomination data. PMID:27026753

Reputation, relationships, risk communication, and the role of trust in the prevention and control of communicable disease: a review.

PubMed

Cairns, Georgina; de Andrade, Marisa; MacDonald, Laura

2013-01-01

Population-level compliance with health protective behavioral advice to prevent and control communicable disease is essential to optimal effectiveness. Multiple factors affect perceptions of trustworthiness, and trust in advice providers is a significant predeterminant of compliance. While competency in assessment and management of communicable disease risks is critical, communications competency may be equally important. Organizational reputation, quality of stakeholder relationships and risk information provision strategies are trust moderating factors, whose impact is strongly influenced by the content, timing and coordination of communications. This article synthesizes the findings of 2 literature reviews on trust moderating communications and communicable disease prevention and control. We find a substantial evidence base on risk communication, but limited research on other trust building communications. We note that awareness of good practice historically has been limited although interest and the availability of supporting resources is growing. Good practice and policy elements are identified: recognition that crisis and risk communications require different strategies; preemptive dialogue and planning; evidence-based approaches to media relations and messaging; and building credibility for information sources. Priority areas for future research include process and cost-effectiveness evaluation and the development of frameworks that integrate communication and biomedical disease control and prevention functions, conceptually and at scale.

HIV risk among low-income African American mothers of elementary school children.

PubMed

Cummings, G L; Battle, R; Barker, J; Krasnovsky, F

1997-01-01

Data from 119 African American low-income mothers of school aged children in Oakland, California show that 38% engaged in behavior that might place them at risk of exposure to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Risk behaviors that were investigated included having multiple partners and having a partner with an incarceration history. Of women studied, 23% were at risk because of multiple partners, while 15% were at risk as a result of having had an incarcerated partner. Women who were < or = 35 years of age were three times more likely to report having had an incarcerated partner compared to women > or = 36 years of age (22% vs. 6%) mean 2 = 5.59, P < or = .01). Single women were also more likely to report having had a partner who had been incarcerated, 21% compared to 9% of married women (mean 2 = 3.73, P < or = .05). Although no significant relationships were found with respect to condom use, a larger proportion of women with an incarcerated partner reported never using condoms (71%) compared to women without an incarcerated partner (63%); whereas, fewer women with multiple partners reported never using condoms (56%) compared to women without multiple partners (67%). Findings suggest that low-income African American women outside of traditional high-risk groups (i.e., generally studied in high-risk settings such as drug treatment centers, sexually transmitted disease [STD] clinics, hospitals or from the sex industry) may be at risk and should be targeted in HIV risk prevention programs. These women may not consider themselves to be at risk and are not generally targeted in HIV risk prevention programs because they are mothers, housewives, and working women.

Investment in different sized SMRs: Economic evaluation of stochastic scenarios by INCAS code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barenghi, S.; Boarin, S.; Ricotti, M. E.

2012-07-01

Small Modular LWR concepts are being developed and proposed to investors worldwide. They capitalize on operating track record of GEN II LWR, while introducing innovative design enhancements allowed by smaller size and additional benefits from the higher degree of modularization and from deployment of multiple units on the same site. (i.e. 'Economy of Multiple' paradigm) Nevertheless Small Modular Reactors pay for a dis-economy of scale that represents a relevant penalty on a capital intensive investment. Investors in the nuclear power generation industry face a very high financial risk, due to high capital commitment and exceptionally long pay-back time. Investment riskmore » arise from uncertainty that affects scenario conditions over such a long time horizon. Risk aversion is increased by current adverse conditions of financial markets and general economic downturn, as is the case nowadays. This work investigates both the investment profitability and risk of alternative investments in a single Large Reactor or in multiple SMR of different sizes drawing information from project's Internal Rate of Return stochastic distribution. multiple SMR deployment on a single site with total power installed, equivalent to a single LR. Uncertain scenario conditions and stochastic input assumptions are included in the analysis, representing investment uncertainty and risk. Results show that, despite the combination of much larger number of stochastic variables in SMR fleets, uncertainty of project profitability is not increased, as compared to LR: SMR have features able to smooth IRR variance and control investment risk. Despite dis-economy of scale, SMR represent a limited capital commitment and a scalable investment option that meet investors' interest, even in developed and mature markets, that are traditional marketplace for LR. (authors)« less

Religious Influences on the Risk of Marital Dissolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vaaler, Margaret L.; Ellison, Christopher G.; Powers, Daniel A.

2009-01-01

This study examined multiple dimensions of religious involvement and the risk of divorce among a nationwide sample of 2,979 first-time married couples. Multivariate proportional hazards modeling was used to analyze two waves of the National Survey of Families and Households. Results indicated that although each partner's religious attendance bore…

Human and bovine viruses and bacteria at three Great Lakes beaches: Environmental variable associations and health risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corsi, Steven R.; Borchardt, Mark A.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Lutz, Michelle A.; McDermott, Colleen M.; Busse, Kimberly M.; Kleinheinz, Gregory; Feng, Xiaoping; Zhu, Jun

2016-01-01

Waterborne pathogens were measured at three beaches in Lake Michigan, environmental factors for predicting pathogen concentrations were identified, and the risk of swimmer infection and illness was estimated. Waterborne pathogens were detected in 96% of samples collected at three Lake Michigan beaches in summer, 2010. Samples were quantified for 22 pathogens in four microbial categories (human viruses, bovine viruses, protozoa, and pathogenic bacteria). All beaches had detections of human and bovine viruses and pathogenic bacteria indicating influence of multiple contamination sources at these beaches. Occurrence ranged from 40 to 87% for human viruses, 65–87% for pathogenic bacteria, and 13–35% for bovine viruses. Enterovirus, adenovirus A, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter jejuni, bovine polyomavirus, and bovine rotavirus A were present most frequently. Variables selected in multiple regression models used to explore environmental factors that influence pathogens included wave direction, cloud cover, currents, and water temperature. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment was done for C. jejuni, Salmonella spp., and enteroviruses to estimate risk of infection and illness. Median infection risks for one-time swimming events were approximately 3 × 10–5, 7 × 10–9, and 3 × 10–7 for C. jejuni, Salmonella spp., and enteroviruses, respectively. Results highlight the importance of investigating multiple pathogens within multiple categories to avoid underestimating the prevalence and risk of waterborne pathogens.

A systematic review of school-based eHealth interventions targeting alcohol use, smoking, physical inactivity, diet, sedentary behaviour and sleep among adolescents: a review protocol.

PubMed

Champion, Katrina E; Newton, Nicola C; Spring, Bonnie; Wafford, Q Eileen; Parmenter, Belinda J; Teesson, Maree

2017-12-06

Six key behavioural risk factors (risky alcohol use, smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour and unhealthy sleep patterns) have been identified as strong determinants of chronic disease, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers. School-based interventions targeting these multiple health risk behaviours among adolescents have the potential to halt the trajectory towards later disease, whilst online and mobile technology interventions offer advantages in terms of student engagement, reach and scalability. Despite this, the efficacy of eHealth school-based interventions targeting these six health risk behaviours among adolescents has not been evaluated. The proposed systematic review aims to address this by determining the nature and efficacy of existing eHealth school-based interventions targeting multiple health risk behaviours among adolescents. A systematic search of the MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library databases will be conducted to identify eligible published papers. Eligible studies will be randomised controlled trials, including cluster randomised controlled trials, of interventions targeting two or more of the following lifestyle risk behaviours: alcohol use, smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour and sleep. Eligible studies will be those evaluating interventions delivered in a secondary school setting among participants 11-18 years of age, via an eHealth platform (Internet, computers of mobile technology). Two reviewers will independently screen studies for eligibility, extract data and assess the risk of bias. Study outcomes will be summarised in a narrative synthesis, and meta-analyses will be conducted where it is appropriate to combine studies. It is anticipated that the results from this review will serve to inform the development of future eHealth multiple health behaviour interventions for adolescents by identifying common characteristics of effective programs and highlighting knowledge gaps in the evidence base. PROSPERO CRD42017072163.

Proceedings of the 2006 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference: Applying Mode of Action in Risk Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling of interactions and multiple route exposure assessment; and integrating relative potency factors with response...defaults, while at the other end is the use of extensive chemical-specific data in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling or even...for internal dosimetry as well as an in depth prospective on the use and limitations of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Predictors of Parenting Stress Trajectories in Premature Infant–Mother Dyads

PubMed Central

Spinelli, Maria; Poehlmann, Julie; Bolt, Daniel

2014-01-01

This prospective longitudinal study examined predictors of parenting stress trajectories over time in a sample of 125 mothers and their preterm infants. Infant (multiple birth, gestational age, days hospitalized, and neonatal health risks) and maternal (socioeconomic, education, depressive symptoms, social support, and quality of interaction during infant feeding) characteristics were collected just prior to infant hospital discharge. Parenting stress and maternal interaction quality during play were measured at 4, 24, and 36 months corrected age. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to analyze infant and maternal characteristics as predictors of parenting stress scores and change over time. Results indicated significant variability across individuals in parenting stress at 4 months and in change trajectories. Mothers of multiples and infants with more medical risks and shorter hospitalization, and mothers with lower education and more depressive symptoms, reported more parenting stress at 4 months of age. Parenting stress decreased over time for mothers of multiples and for mothers with lower education more than for mothers of singletons or for mothers with higher educational levels. Changes in parenting stress scores over time were negatively associated with maternal behaviors during mother–infant interactions. Results are interpreted for their implications for preventive interventions. PMID:24188086

Childhood infections and risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Bager, Peter; Nielsen, Nete Munk; Bihrmann, Kristine; Frisch, Morten; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Wohlfart, Jan; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Melbye, Mads; Westergaard, Tine

2004-11-01

Multiple sclerosis has been hypothesized to be the result from an aberrant immune response possibly triggered by delayed exposure to a common childhood infection. Because the vast majority of previous studies testing this hypothesis have been based on a history of childhood infections recalled years to decades later in adulthood, we investigated whether age at six common childhood infections was associated with risk of multiple sclerosis, using information recalled in the childhood of a historical cohort of school children in Denmark. Cases included all individuals with multiple sclerosis in the country born between 1940 and 1975, who had attended school in the capital, Copenhagen. Controls were age- and sex-matched peers. School health records were obtained for all subjects. The records contained information on measles, pertussis, scarlet fever, birth order, sibship size, social class of the father, school years, and name of school and attended school classes for children born since 1940 (n(cases) = 455, n(controls) = 1801). For children born since 1950, the records also contained information on rubella, varicella and mumps (n(cases) = 182, n(controls) = 690). Neither age at infection with measles, rubella, varicella, mumps, pertussis and scarlet fever (upper age limit, 14 years) nor the cumulative number of these infections between the ages of 10 and 14 years was associated with the risk of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the risk of multiple sclerosis was not associated with birth order or social class. No clustering of multiple sclerosis in school classes was observed. Our findings suggest that measles, rubella, mumps, varicella, pertussis and scarlet fever, even if acquired late in childhood, are not associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis later in life.

Microcystin Prevalence throughout Lentic Waterbodies in Coastal Southern California

PubMed Central

Nagoda, Carey; Kudela, Raphael M.; Tatters, Avery; Caron, David A.; Busse, Lilian; Brown, Jeff; Sutula, Martha

2017-01-01

Toxin producing cyanobacterial blooms have increased globally in recent decades in both frequency and intensity. Despite the recognition of this growing risk, the extent and magnitude of cyanobacterial blooms and cyanotoxin prevalence is poorly characterized in the heavily populated region of southern California. Recent assessments of lentic waterbodies (depressional wetlands, lakes, reservoirs and coastal lagoons) determined the prevalence of microcystins and, in some cases, additional cyanotoxins. Microcystins were present in all waterbody types surveyed although toxin concentrations were generally low across most habitats, as only a small number of sites exceeded California’s recreational health thresholds for acute toxicity. Results from passive samplers (Solid Phase Adsorption Toxin Tracking (SPATT)) indicated microcystins were prevalent throughout lentic waterbodies and that traditional discrete samples underestimated the presence of microcystins. Multiple cyanotoxins were detected simultaneously in some systems, indicating multiple stressors, the risk of which is uncertain since health thresholds are based on exposures to single toxins. Anatoxin-a was detected for the first time from lakes in southern California. The persistence of detectable microcystins across years and seasons indicates a low-level, chronic risk through both direct and indirect exposure. The influence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms is a more complex stressor than presently recognized and should be included in water quality monitoring programs. PMID:28737685

Type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis: A Danish population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nete M; Westergaard, Tine; Frisch, Morten; Rostgaard, Klaus; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Melbye, Mads; Hjalgrim, Henrik

2006-07-01

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) and multiple sclerosis (MS) contribute considerably to the burden of autoimmune diseases in young adults. Although HLA patterns of T1D and MS are considered mutually exclusive, individual and familial co-occurrence of the 2 diseases has been reported. To assess the co-occurrence of T1D and MS by estimating the risk for MS in patients with T1D and the risk for T1D in first-degree relatives of patients with MS. Two population-based disease registers, the Danish Hospital Discharge Register and the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Register were used to identify patients with T1D, defined as patients in whom diabetes was diagnosed before age 20 years (N = 6078), and patients with MS (N = 11 862). First-degree relatives (N = 14,771) of patients with MS were identified from family information in the Danish Civil Registration System. Patients with T1D and first-degree relatives of patients with MS were followed up for occurrence of MS and T1D, respectively, and the relative risks were expressed as standardized incidence ratios, that is, ratios of observed to expected numbers of outcomes based on national age, sex, and period-specific MS and T1D incidence rates. Patients with T1D were at more than 3-fold increased risk for development of MS (relative risk, 3.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.80-5.88; n = 11). First-degree relatives of patients with MS were at 63% increased risk (relative risk, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-2.12; n = 56) for development of T1D. However, adjusting for familial relationship to patients with T1D reduced the excess risk to 44% (relative risk, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.88; n = 56). The present nationwide cohort study demonstrates an intraindividual and, to a lesser degree, an intrafamilial co-occurrence of MS and T1D.

Patterns of multiple health risk-behaviours in university students and their association with mental health: application of latent class analysis.

PubMed

Kwan, M Y; Arbour-Nicitopoulos, K P; Duku, E; Faulkner, G

2016-08-01

University and college campuses may be the last setting where it is possible to comprehensively address the health of a large proportion of the young adult population. It is important that health promoters understand the collective challenges students are facing, and to better understand the broader lifestyle behavioural patterning evident during this life stage. The purpose of this study was to examine the clustering of modifiable health-risk behaviours and to explore the relationship between these identified clusters and mental health outcomes among a large Canadian university sample. Undergraduate students (n = 837; mean age = 21 years) from the University of Toronto completed the National College Health Assessment survey. The survey consists of approximately 300 items, including assessments of student health status, mental health and health-risk behaviours. Latent class analysis was used to identify patterning based on eight salient health-risk behaviours (marijuana use, other illicit drug use, risky sex, smoking, binge drinking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and insufficient sleep). A three-class model based on student behavioural patterns emerged: "typical," "high-risk" and "moderately healthy." Results also found high-risk students reporting significantly higher levels of stress than typical students (χ2(1671) = 7.26, p < .01). Students with the highest likelihood of engaging in multiple health-risk behaviours reported poorer mental health, particularly as it relates to stress. Although these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the 28% response rate, they do suggest that interventions targeting specific student groups with similar patterning of multiple health-risk behaviours may be needed.

Integrating geological uncertainty in long-term open pit mine production planning by ant colony optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilani, Seyed-Omid; Sattarvand, Javad

2016-02-01

Meeting production targets in terms of ore quantity and quality is critical for a successful mining operation. In-situ grade uncertainty causes both deviations from production targets and general financial deficits. A new stochastic optimization algorithm based on ant colony optimization (ACO) approach is developed herein to integrate geological uncertainty described through a series of the simulated ore bodies. Two different strategies were developed based on a single predefined probability value (Prob) and multiple probability values (Pro bnt) , respectively in order to improve the initial solutions that created by deterministic ACO procedure. Application at the Sungun copper mine in the northwest of Iran demonstrate the abilities of the stochastic approach to create a single schedule and control the risk of deviating from production targets over time and also increase the project value. A comparison between two strategies and traditional approach illustrates that the multiple probability strategy is able to produce better schedules, however, the single predefined probability is more practical in projects requiring of high flexibility degree.

Concurrent validation of an index to estimate fall risk in community dwelling seniors through a wireless sensor insole system: A pilot study.

PubMed

Di Rosa, Mirko; Hausdorff, Jeff M; Stara, Vera; Rossi, Lorena; Glynn, Liam; Casey, Monica; Burkard, Stefan; Cherubini, Antonio

2017-06-01

Falls are a major health problem for older adults with immediate effects, such as fractures and head injuries, and longer term effects including fear of falling, loss of independence, and disability. The goals of the WIISEL project were to develop an unobtrusive, self-learning and wearable system aimed at assessing gait impairments and fall risk of older adults in the home setting; assessing activity and mobility in daily living conditions; identifying decline in mobility performance and detecting falls in the home setting. The WIISEL system was based on a pair of electronic insoles, able to transfer data to a commercially available smartphone, which was used to wirelessly collect data in real time from the insoles and transfer it to a backend computer server via mobile internet connection and then onwards to a gait analysis tool. Risk of falls was calculated by the system using a novel Fall Risk Index (FRI) based on multiple gait parameters and gait pattern recognition. The system was tested by twenty-nine older users and data collected by the insoles were compared with standardized functional tests with a concurrent validity approach. The results showed that the FRI captures the risk of falls with accuracy that is similar to that of conventional performance-based tests of fall risk. These preliminary findings support the idea that theWIISEL system can be a useful research tool and may have clinical utility for long-term monitoring of fall risk at home and in the community setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomic variability of Helicobacter pylori isolates of gastric regions from two Colombian populations

PubMed Central

Matta, Andrés Jenuer; Pazos, Alvaro Jairo; Bustamante-Rengifo, Javier Andrés; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

2017-01-01

AIM To compare the genomic variability and the multiple colonization of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) in patients with chronic gastritis from two Colombian populations with contrast in the risk of developing gastric cancer (GC): Túquerres-Nariño (High risk) and Tumaco-Nariño (Low risk). METHODS Four hundred and nine patients from both genders with dyspeptic symptoms were studied. Seventy-two patients were included in whom H. pylori was isolated from three anatomic regions of the gastric mucosa, (31/206) of the high risk population of GC (Túquerres) and (41/203) of the low risk population of GC (Tumaco). The isolates were genotyped by PCR-RAPD. Genetic diversity between the isolates was evaluated by conglomerates analysis and multiple correspondence analyses. RESULTS The proportion of virulent genotypes of H. pylori was 99% in Túquerres and 94% in Tumaco. The coefficient of similarity of Nei-Li showed greater genetic diversity among isolates of Túquerres (0.13) than those of Tumaco (0.07). After adjusting by age, gender and type of gastritis, the multiple colonization was 1.7 times more frequent in Túquerres than in Tumaco (P = 0.05). CONCLUSION In Túquerres, high risk of GC there was a greater probability of multiple colonization by H. pylori. From the analysis of the results of the PCR-RAPD, it was found higher genetic variability in the isolates of H. pylori in the population of high risk for the development of GC. PMID:28223724

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes “bad news” for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices.

PubMed

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes "bad news" for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

Prospective mixture risk assessment and management prioritizations for river catchments with diverse land uses

PubMed Central

Brown, Colin D.; de Zwart, Dick; Diamond, Jerome; Dyer, Scott D.; Holmes, Christopher M.; Marshall, Stuart; Burton, G. Allen

2018-01-01

Abstract Ecological risk assessment increasingly focuses on risks from chemical mixtures and multiple stressors because ecosystems are commonly exposed to a plethora of contaminants and nonchemical stressors. To simplify the task of assessing potential mixture effects, we explored 3 land use–related chemical emission scenarios. We applied a tiered methodology to judge the implications of the emissions of chemicals from agricultural practices, domestic discharges, and urban runoff in a quantitative model. The results showed land use–dependent mixture exposures, clearly discriminating downstream effects of land uses, with unique chemical “signatures” regarding composition, concentration, and temporal patterns. Associated risks were characterized in relation to the land‐use scenarios. Comparisons to measured environmental concentrations and predicted impacts showed relatively good similarity. The results suggest that the land uses imply exceedances of regulatory protective environmental quality standards, varying over time in relation to rain events and associated flow and dilution variation. Higher‐tier analyses using ecotoxicological effect criteria confirmed that species assemblages may be affected by exposures exceeding no‐effect levels and that mixture exposure could be associated with predicted species loss under certain situations. The model outcomes can inform various types of prioritization to support risk management, including a ranking across land uses as a whole, a ranking on characteristics of exposure times and frequencies, and various rankings of the relative role of individual chemicals. Though all results are based on in silico assessments, the prospective land use–based approach applied in the present study yields useful insights for simplifying and assessing potential ecological risks of chemical mixtures and can therefore be useful for catchment‐management decisions. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:715–728. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:28845901

Marginal structural model to evaluate the joint effect of socioeconomic exposures on the risk of developing end-stage renal disease in patients with type 1 diabetes: a longitudinal study based on data from the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Study Group.

PubMed

Pazzagli, Laura; Möllsten, Anna; Waernbaum, Ingeborg

2017-08-01

Diabetic nephropathy is a severe complication of type 1 diabetes (T1D) that may lead to renal failure and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) demanding dialysis and transplantation. The etiology of diabetic nephropathy is multifactorial and both genes and environmental and life style-related factors are involved. In this study, we investigate the effect of the socioeconomic exposures, unemployment and receiving income support, on the development of ESRD in T1D patients, using a marginal structural model (MSM) in comparison with standard logistic regression models. The study is based on the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register which in 1977 started to register patients developing T1D before 15 years of age. In the analyses, we include patients born between 1965 and 1979, developing diabetes between 1977 and 1994, and followed until 2013 (n = 4034). A MSM was fitted to adjust for both baseline and time-varying confounders. The main results of the analysis indicate that being unemployed for more than 1 year and receiving income support are risk factors for the development of ESRD. Multiple exposures over time to these risk factors increase the risk associated with the disease. Using a MSM is an advanced method well suited to investigate the effect of exposures on the risk of complications of a chronic disease with longitudinal data. The results show that socioeconomic disadvantage increases the risk of developing ESRD in patients with T1D. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo based method for fluorescence tomographic imaging with lifetime multiplexing using time gates

PubMed Central

Chen, Jin; Venugopal, Vivek; Intes, Xavier

2011-01-01

Time-resolved fluorescence optical tomography allows 3-dimensional localization of multiple fluorophores based on lifetime contrast while providing a unique data set for improved resolution. However, to employ the full fluorescence time measurements, a light propagation model that accurately simulates weakly diffused and multiple scattered photons is required. In this article, we derive a computationally efficient Monte Carlo based method to compute time-gated fluorescence Jacobians for the simultaneous imaging of two fluorophores with lifetime contrast. The Monte Carlo based formulation is validated on a synthetic murine model simulating the uptake in the kidneys of two distinct fluorophores with lifetime contrast. Experimentally, the method is validated using capillaries filled with 2.5nmol of ICG and IRDye™800CW respectively embedded in a diffuse media mimicking the average optical properties of mice. Combining multiple time gates in one inverse problem allows the simultaneous reconstruction of multiple fluorophores with increased resolution and minimal crosstalk using the proposed formulation. PMID:21483610

Multiple capture locations for 3D ultrasound-guided robotic retrieval of moving bodies from a beating heart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thienphrapa, Paul; Ramachandran, Bharat; Elhawary, Haytham; Taylor, Russell H.; Popovic, Aleksandra

2012-02-01

Free moving bodies in the heart pose a serious health risk as they may be released in the arteries causing blood flow disruption. These bodies may be the result of various medical conditions and trauma. The conventional approach to removing these objects involves open surgery with sternotomy, the use of cardiopulmonary bypass, and a wide resection of the heart muscle. We advocate a minimally invasive surgical approach using a flexible robotic end effector guided by 3D transesophageal echocardiography. In a phantom study, we track a moving body in a beating heart using a modified normalized cross-correlation method, with mean RMS errors of 2.3 mm. We previously found the foreign body motion to be fast and abrupt, rendering infeasible a retrieval method based on direct tracking. We proposed a strategy based on guiding a robot to the most spatially probable location of the fragment and securing it upon its reentry to said location. To improve efficacy in the context of a robotic retrieval system, we extend this approach by exploring multiple candidate capture locations. Salient locations are identified based on spatial probability, dwell time, and visit frequency; secondary locations are also examined. Aggregate results indicate that the location of highest spatial probability (50% occupancy) is distinct from the longest-dwelled location (0.84 seconds). Such metrics are vital in informing the design of a retrieval system and capture strategies, and they can be computed intraoperatively to select the best capture location based on constraints such as workspace, time, and device manipulability. Given the complex nature of fragment motion, the ability to analyze multiple capture locations is a desirable capability in an interventional system.

Effects of a web-based tailored multiple-lifestyle intervention for adults: a two-year randomized controlled trial comparing sequential and simultaneous delivery modes.

PubMed

Schulz, Daniela N; Kremers, Stef P J; Vandelanotte, Corneel; van Adrichem, Mathieu J G; Schneider, Francine; Candel, Math J J M; de Vries, Hein

2014-01-27

Web-based computer-tailored interventions for multiple health behaviors can have a significant public health impact. Yet, few randomized controlled trials have tested this assumption. The objective of this paper was to test the effects of a sequential and simultaneous Web-based tailored intervention on multiple lifestyle behaviors. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with 3 tailoring conditions (ie, sequential, simultaneous, and control conditions) in the Netherlands in 2009-2012. Follow-up measurements took place after 12 and 24 months. The intervention content was based on the I-Change model. In a health risk appraisal, all respondents (N=5055) received feedback on their lifestyle behaviors that indicated whether they complied with the Dutch guidelines for physical activity, vegetable consumption, fruit consumption, alcohol intake, and smoking. Participants in the sequential (n=1736) and simultaneous (n=1638) conditions received tailored motivational feedback to change unhealthy behaviors one at a time (sequential) or all at the same time (simultaneous). Mixed model analyses were performed as primary analyses; regression analyses were done as sensitivity analyses. An overall risk score was used as outcome measure, then effects on the 5 individual lifestyle behaviors were assessed and a process evaluation was performed regarding exposure to and appreciation of the intervention. Both tailoring strategies were associated with small self-reported behavioral changes. The sequential condition had the most significant effects compared to the control condition after 12 months (T1, effect size=0.28). After 24 months (T2), the simultaneous condition was most effective (effect size=0.18). All 5 individual lifestyle behaviors changed over time, but few effects differed significantly between the conditions. At both follow-ups, the sequential condition had significant changes in smoking abstinence compared to the simultaneous condition (T1 effect size=0.31; T2 effect size=0.41). The sequential condition was more effective in decreasing alcohol consumption than the control condition at 24 months (effect size=0.27). Change was predicted by the amount of exposure to the intervention (total visiting time: beta=-.06; P=.01; total number of visits: beta=-.11; P<.001). Both interventions were appreciated well by respondents without significant differences between conditions. Although evidence was found for the effectiveness of both programs, no simple conclusive finding could be drawn about which intervention mode was more effective. The best kind of intervention may depend on the behavior that is targeted or on personal preferences and motivation. Further research is needed to identify moderators of intervention effectiveness. The results need to be interpreted in view of the high and selective dropout rates, multiple comparisons, and modest effect sizes. However, a large number of people were reached at low cost and behavioral change was achieved after 2 years. Nederlands Trial Register: NTR 2168; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=2168 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6MbUqttYB).

Exploring the Life Course Perspective in Maternal and Child Health through Community-Based Participatory Focus Groups: Social Risks Assessment.

PubMed

Salinas-Miranda, Abraham A; King, Lindsey M; Salihu, Hamisu M; Berry, Estrellita; Austin, Deborah; Nash, Susan; Scarborough, Kenneth; Best, Evangeline; Cox, Lillian; King, Georgette; Hepburn, Carrie; Burpee, Conchita; Richardson, Eugene; Ducket, Marlo; Briscoe, Richard; Baldwin, Julie

2017-01-01

Little is known about the patterns of risk factors experienced by communities of color and how diverse community contexts shape the health trajectory of women from the early childhood period to the time of their pregnancies. Thus, we conducted a focus group study to identify social risks over the life course that contribute to maternal and child health from the perspective of community members residing in low income urban areas. Ten community-based participatory focus groups were conducted with residents from selected communities in Tampa, Florida, from September to November 2013. We used the life course perspective to illuminate and explain the experiences reported by the interviewees. A total of 78 residents participated in the focus groups. Children and adolescents' health risks were childhood obesity, lack of physical activity, and low self-esteem. Women's health risks were low self-esteem, low educational level, low health literacy, inadequate parenting skills, and financial problems. Risks during pregnancy included stress, low self-esteem, inadequate eating patterns, lack of physical activity, healthcare issues, lack of social support, and lack of father involvement during pregnancy. Multiple risk factors contribute to maternal and child health in low income communities in Tampa Bay. The intersection of risk factors in different life periods suggest possible pathways, cumulative, and latent effects, which must be considered in future longitudinal studies and when developing effective maternal and child health programs and policies.

Role of socio-economic and reproductive factors in the risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Magyari, M

2015-01-01

The incidence of multiple sclerosis is increasing in Danish women. Their risk of developing multiple sclerosis has more than doubled in 25 years while it has remained virtually unchanged for men. The explanation for these epidemiological changes should be sought in the environment as they are too rapid to be explained by gene alterations. We investigated the effect of numerous biological social physical and chemical environmental exposures in different periods of life. These data were available from population-based registries and were used in a case-control approach. This study database included all multiple sclerosis cases (n = 1403) from the Danish MS Registry with clinical onset between 2000 and 2004 as well as 35,045 controls drawn by random from the Danish Civil Registration System and matched by sex year of birth and residential municipality at the reference year. Having newborn children reduced the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women but not in men. Childbirths reduced the risk of MS by about 46% during the following 5 years. Even pregnancies terminated early had a protective effect on the risk of developing MS suggesting a temporary immunosuppression during pregnancy. Our data on social behaviour regarding educational level income and relationship stability did not indicate reverse causality. A greater likelihood to be exposed to common infections did not show any effect on the risk of MS neither in puberty nor in adulthood. Socio-economic status and lifestyle expressed in educational level and sanitary conditions in youth were not associated with the risk of MS. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Relationship between Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Work-related Risk Factors in Hotel Workers.

PubMed

Lee, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju Jong; Mun, Hyeon Je; Lee, Kyung-Jae; Kim, Joo Ja

2013-10-11

To identify work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and any associated work-related risk factors, focusing on structural labor factors among hotel workers. A total of 1,016 hotel workers (620 men and 396 women) were analyzed. The questionnaire surveyed participants' socio-demographics, health-related behaviors, job-related factors, and work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Work-related musculoskeletal symptoms were assessed using the Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire. All analyses were stratified by gender, and multiple logistic regression modeling was used to determine associations between work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and work-related risk factors. The risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 1.9 times higher among male workers in the kitchen department than males in the room department (OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.03-3.79), and 2.5 times higher among male workers with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.57-4.04). All of the aforementioned cases demonstrated a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Moreover, the risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 3.3 times higher among female workers aged between 30 and 34 than those aged 24 or younger (OR = 3.32, 95% CI = 1.56-7.04); 0.3 times higher among females in the back office department than those in the room department (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.12-0.91); 1.6 times higher among females on shift schedules than those who were not (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.02-2.59); 1.8 times higher among females who performed more intensive work than those who performed less intensive work (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.17-3.02), and; 2.1 times higher among females with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.34-3.50). All of the aforementioned cases also displayed a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. This study focused on structural risk factors in the working environment, such as the gender-based division of labor, shift work and labor intensity, that demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with the work-related musculoskeletal symptoms of hotel workers. Both men and women reported different prevalence rates of work-related musculoskeletal symptoms among different departments. This could indicate that a gender-based division of labor produces different ergonomic risk factors for each gender group. However, only females displayed a statistically significant correlation between shift work and labor intensity and musculoskeletal symptoms. Thus, minimizing ergonomic risk factors alone does not suffice to effectively prevent musculoskeletal diseases among hotel workers. Instead, work assignments should be based on gender, department, working hours and work intensity should be adjusted to address multi-dimensional musculoskeletal risk factors. In addition, an approach that seeks to minimize shift work is needed to reduce the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders.

The Relationship between Musculoskeletal Symptoms and Work-related Risk Factors in Hotel Workers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objectives To identify work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and any associated work-related risk factors, focusing on structural labor factors among hotel workers. Methods A total of 1,016 hotel workers (620 men and 396 women) were analyzed. The questionnaire surveyed participants’ socio-demographics, health-related behaviors, job-related factors, and work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Work-related musculoskeletal symptoms were assessed using the Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire. All analyses were stratified by gender, and multiple logistic regression modeling was used to determine associations between work-related musculoskeletal symptoms and work-related risk factors. Results The risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 1.9 times higher among male workers in the kitchen department than males in the room department (OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.03-3.79), and 2.5 times higher among male workers with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.57-4.04). All of the aforementioned cases demonstrated a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Moreover, the risk of developing work-related musculoskeletal symptoms was 3.3 times higher among female workers aged between 30 and 34 than those aged 24 or younger (OR = 3.32, 95% CI = 1.56-7.04); 0.3 times higher among females in the back office department than those in the room department (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.12-0.91); 1.6 times higher among females on shift schedules than those who were not (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.02-2.59); 1.8 times higher among females who performed more intensive work than those who performed less intensive work (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.17-3.02), and; 2.1 times higher among females with lower sleep satisfaction than those with higher sleep satisfaction (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.34-3.50). All of the aforementioned cases also displayed a statistically significant association with work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. Conclusion This study focused on structural risk factors in the working environment, such as the gender-based division of labor, shift work and labor intensity, that demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with the work-related musculoskeletal symptoms of hotel workers. Both men and women reported different prevalence rates of work-related musculoskeletal symptoms among different departments. This could indicate that a gender-based division of labor produces different ergonomic risk factors for each gender group. However, only females displayed a statistically significant correlation between shift work and labor intensity and musculoskeletal symptoms. Thus, minimizing ergonomic risk factors alone does not suffice to effectively prevent musculoskeletal diseases among hotel workers. Instead, work assignments should be based on gender, department, working hours and work intensity should be adjusted to address multi-dimensional musculoskeletal risk factors. In addition, an approach that seeks to minimize shift work is needed to reduce the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders. PMID:24472690

Effectiveness of multiple sclerosis treatment with current immunomodulatory drugs.

PubMed

Milo, Ron

2015-04-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the CNS of a putative autoimmune origin characterized by neurologic dysfunction disseminated in space and time due to demyelination and axonal loss that results in progressive disability. Recent advances in understanding the immune pathogenesis of the disease resulted in the introduction of numerous effective immunomodulatoty drugs having diverse mechanisms of action, modes of administration and risk-benefit profiles. This results in more complex albeit more promising treatment selection and choices. The epidemiology, clinical features, pathogenesis and diagnosis of the disease are discussed. The mode of action and main characteristics of current immunomodulatory drugs for MS and their place in the therapeutic algorithm of the disease based on evidence from clinical trials are described. Speculation on new paradigms, treatment goals and outcome measures aimed at improving the landscape of MS treatment is presented. Multiple disease, drug and patient-related factors should be taken into consideration when selecting the appropriate drug and treatment strategy to the appropriate patient, thus paving the road for personalized medicine in MS.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Yang, Ji Wu

Failures in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system of pressurized water reactors (PWRs) are considered to involve substantial risk whether a decision is made to either continue power operation while repair is being done, or to shut down the plant to undertake repairs. Technical specification action requirements usually require immediate plant shutdown in the case of multiple failures in the system (in some cases, immediate repair of one train is required when all AFW trains fail). This paper presents a probabilistic risk assessment-based method to quantitatively evaluate and compare both the risks of continued power operation and of shutting the plantmore » down, given known failures in the system. The method is applied to the AFW system for four different PWRs. Results show that the risk of continued power operation and plant shutdown both are substantial, but the latter is larger than the former over the usual repair time. This was proven for four plants with different designs: two operating Westinghouse plants, one operating Asea-Brown Boveri Combustion Engineering Plant, and one of evolutionary design. The method can be used to analyze individual plant design and to improve AFW action requirements using risk-informed evaluations.« less

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models.

PubMed

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-30

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models‡

PubMed Central

Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

2012-01-01

New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:21905066

Insights from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW).

PubMed

Watts, Nelson B

2014-07-01

GLOW is an observational, longitudinal, practice-based cohort study of osteoporosis in 60,393 women aged ≥55 years in 10 countries on three continents. In this Review, we present insights from the first 3 years of the study. Despite cost analyses being frequently based on spine and hip fractures, we found that nonvertebral, nonhip fractures were around five times more common and doubled the use of health-care resources compared with hip and spine fractures combined. Fractures not at the four so-called major sites in FRAX(®) (upper arm, forearm, hip and clinical vertebral fractures) account for >40% of all fractures. The risk of fracture is increased by various comorbidities, such as Parkinson disease, multiple sclerosis and lung and heart disease. Obesity, although thought to be protective against all fractures, substantially increased the risk of fractures in the ankle or lower leg. Simple assessment by age plus fracture history has good predictive value for all fractures, but risk profiles differ for first and subsequent fractures. Fractures diminish quality of life as much or more than diabetes mellitus, arthritis and lung disease, yet women substantially underestimate their own fracture risk. Treatment rates in patients at high risk of fracture are below those recommended but might be too frequent in women at low risk. Comorbidities and the limits of current therapeutic regimens jeopardize the efficacy of drugs; new regimens should be explored for severe cases.

Reliability of a single objective measure in assessing sleepiness.

PubMed

Sunwoo, Bernie Y; Jackson, Nicholas; Maislin, Greg; Gurubhagavatula, Indira; George, Charles F; Pack, Allan I

2012-01-01

To evaluate reliability of single objective tests in assessing sleepiness. Subjects who completed polysomnography underwent a 4-nap multiple sleep latency test (MSLT) the following day. Prior to each nap opportunity on MSLT, subjects performed the psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) and divided attention driving task (DADT). Results of single versus multiple test administrations were compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and adjusted for test administration order effects to explore time of day effects. Measures were explored as continuous and binary (i.e., impaired or not impaired). Community-based sample evaluated at a tertiary, university-based sleep center. 372 adult commercial vehicle operators oversampled for increased obstructive sleep apnea risk. N/A. AS CONTINUOUS MEASURES, ICC WERE AS FOLLOWS: MSLT 0.45, PVT median response time 0.69, PVT number of lapses 0.51, 10-min DADT tracking error 0.87, 20-min DADT tracking error 0.90. Based on binary outcomes, ICC were: MSLT 0.63, PVT number of lapses 0.85, 10-min DADT 0.95, 20-min DADT 0.96. Statistically significant time of day effects were seen in both the MSLT and PVT but not the DADT. Correlation between ESS and different objective tests was strongest for MSLT, range [-0.270 to -0.195] and persisted across all time points. Single DADT and PVT administrations are reliable measures of sleepiness. A single MSLT administration can reasonably discriminate individuals with MSL < 8 minutes. These results support the use of a single administration of some objective tests of sleepiness when performed under controlled conditions in routine clinical care.

Optimal groundwater security management policies by control of inexact health risks under dual uncertainty in slope factors.

PubMed

Lu, Hongwei; Li, Jing; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong

2018-05-01

Groundwater remediation is a complicated system with time-consuming and costly challenges, which should be carefully controlled by appropriate groundwater management. This study develops an integrated optimization method for groundwater remediation management regarding cost, contamination distribution and health risk under multiple uncertainties. The integration of health risk into groundwater remediation optimization management is capable of not only adequately considering the influence of health risk on optimal remediation strategies, but also simultaneously completing remediation optimization design and risk assessment. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming approach is presented to handle multiple uncertain properties in the process of health risk assessment. The capabilities and effectiveness of the developed method are illustrated through an application of a naphthalene contaminated case in Anhui, China. Results indicate that (a) the pump-and-treat remediation system leads to a low naphthalene contamination but high remediation cost for a short-time remediation, and natural attenuation significantly affects naphthalene removal from groundwater for a long-time remediation; (b) the weighting coefficients have significant influences on the remediation cost and the performances both for naphthalene concentrations and health risks; (c) an increased level of slope factor (sf) for naphthalene corresponds to more optimal strategies characterized by higher environmental benefits and lower economic sacrifice. The developed method could be simultaneously beneficial for public health and environmental protection. Decision makers could obtain the most appropriate remediation strategies according to their specific requirements with high flexibility of economic, environmental, and risk concerns. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novice Drivers' Exposure to Known Risk Factors During the First 18 Months of Licensure: The Effect of Vehicle Ownership

PubMed Central

Klauer, Sheila G.; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Lee, Suzanne E.; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Howard, E. Henry; Dingus, Thomas A.

2014-01-01

Objective Though there is ample research indicating that nighttime, teen passengers, and speeding increase the risk of crash involvement, there is little research about teen drivers' exposure to these known risk factors. Three research questions were assessed in this article: (1) Does exposure to known risk factors change over time? (2) Do teenage drivers experience higher rates of exposure to known risk factors than adult drivers? (3) Do teenage drivers who own a vehicle experience higher rates of exposure to risk factors than those who share a family vehicle? Methods Forty-one newly licensed teenage drivers and at least one parent (adult) were recruited at licensure. Driving data were recorded for 18 months. Results Average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or average nighttime VMT for teens did not increase over time. Teenagers consistently drove 24 percent of VMT at night, compared with 18 percent for adults. Teenagers drove 62 percent of VMT with no passengers, 29 percent of VMT with one passenger, and less than 10 percent of VMT with multiple passengers. Driving with no passengers increased with driving experience for these teens. Teenage drivers who owned their vehicles, relative to those who shared a vehicle, sped 4 times more frequently overall and more frequently at night and with multiple teen passengers. Conclusion These findings are among the first objective data documenting the nature of teenage driving exposure to known risk factors. The findings provide evidence that vehicle access is related to risk and suggest the potential safety benefit of parental management of novice teenage driving exposure. PMID:21469023

Novice drivers' exposure to known risk factors during the first 18 months of licensure: the effect of vehicle ownership.

PubMed

Klauer, Sheila G; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Lee, Suzanne E; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Howard, E Henry; Dingus, Thomas A

2011-04-01

Though there is ample research indicating that nighttime, teen passengers, and speeding increase the risk of crash involvement, there is little research about teen drivers' exposure to these known risk factors. Three research questions were assessed in this article: (1) Does exposure to known risk factors change over time? (2) Do teenage drivers experience higher rates of exposure to known risk factors than adult drivers? (3) Do teenage drivers who own a vehicle experience higher rates of exposure to risk factors than those who share a family vehicle? Forty-one newly licensed teenage drivers and at least one parent (adult) were recruited at licensure. Driving data were recorded for 18 months. Average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or average nighttime VMT for teens did not increase over time. Teenagers consistently drove 24 percent of VMT at night, compared with 18 percent for adults. Teenagers drove 62 percent of VMT with no passengers, 29 percent of VMT with one passenger, and less than 10 percent of VMT with multiple passengers. Driving with no passengers increased with driving experience for these teens. Teenage drivers who owned their vehicles, relative to those who shared a vehicle, sped 4 times more frequently overall and more frequently at night and with multiple teen passengers. These findings are among the first objective data documenting the nature of teenage driving exposure to known risk factors. The findings provide evidence that vehicle access is related to risk and suggest the potential safety benefit of parental management of novice teenage driving exposure.

Ready, set, go: a cross-sectional survey to understand priorities and preferences for multiple health behaviour change in a highly disadvantaged group.

PubMed

Noble, Natasha; Paul, Christine; Sanson-Fisher, Robert; Turon, Heidi; Turner, Nicole; Conigrave, Katherine

2016-09-13

Socially disadvantaged groups, such as Aboriginal Australians, tend to have a high prevalence of multiple lifestyle risk factors, increasing the risk of disease and underscoring the need for services to address multiple health behaviours. The aims of this study were to explore, among a socially disadvantaged group of people attending an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service (ACCHS): a) readiness to change health behaviours; b) acceptability of addressing multiple risk factors sequentially or simultaneously; and c) preferred types of support services. People attending an ACCHS in regional New South Wales (NSW) completed a touchscreen survey while waiting for their appointment. The survey assessed participant health risk status, which health risks they would like to change, whether they preferred multiple health changes to be made together or separately, and the types of support they would use. Of the 211 participants who completed the survey, 94 % reported multiple (two or more) health risks. There was a high willingness to change, with 69 % of current smokers wanting to cut down or quit, 51 % of overweight or obese participants wanting to lose weight and 44 % of those using drugs in the last 12 months wanting to stop or cut down. Of participants who wanted to make more than one health change, over half would be willing to make simultaneous or over-lapping health changes. The most popular types of support were help from a doctor or Health Worker and seeing a specialist, with less than a quarter of participants preferring telephone or electronic (internet or smart phone) forms of assistance. The importance of involving family members was also identified. Strategies addressing multiple health behaviour changes are likely to be acceptable for people attending an ACCHS, but may need to allow flexibility in the choice of initial target behaviour, timing of changes, and the format of support provided.

Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

2017-12-01

Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

Multiple Human Papilloma Virus Infections and Their Impact on the Development of High-Risk Cervical Lesions.

PubMed

Salazar, Katrina L; Zhou, Haijun Steve; Xu, Jiaqiong; Peterson, Leif E; Schwartz, Mary R; Mody, Dina R; Ge, Yimin

2015-01-01

Individuals are often infected with multiple genotypes of human papillomavirus (HPV) simultaneously, but the role these infections play in the development of cervical disease is not well established. This study aimed to determine the association of multiple HPV infections with high-risk cervical lesions (hrCLs). HPV genotyping was performed on 798 SurePath specimens collected between December 1, 2009, and April 30, 2011. The cases were classified as hrCL (n = 90) or non-hrCL (n = 708) based on cytology diagnoses. The association between hrCL and HPV infection patterns was analyzed. Multiple HPV infections were frequently encountered (38.2%) in the cohort. Increased frequency of hrCLs was associated with a single high-risk HPV (hrHPV) infection. An additive or synergistic effect was not observed for hrCL in multiple HPV infections. The hrCL rates appeared to decrease in various patterns of multiple HPV infections, but the reduction was not statistically significant. Multiple HPV infections are common with no additive or synergistic effect on the development of hrCL. Conversely, reduced hrCL rates were observed in various patterns of multiple HPV infections compared to their single-genotype infection counterparts, suggestive of possible intergenotypic competition or more effective immune response triggered by multiple infections. Further studies in larger cohorts are needed. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Astrophysical implications of hypothetical stable TeV-scale black holes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giddings, Steven B.; Mangano, Michelangelo L.

2008-08-01

We analyze macroscopic effects of TeV-scale black holes, such as could possibly be produced at the LHC, in what is regarded as an extremely hypothetical scenario in which they are stable and, if trapped inside Earth, begin to accrete matter. We examine a wide variety of TeV-scale gravity scenarios, basing the resulting accretion models on first-principles, basic, and well-tested physical laws. These scenarios fall into two classes, depending on whether accretion could have any macroscopic effect on the Earth at times shorter than the Sun's natural lifetime. We argue that cases with such an effect at shorter times than themore » solar lifetime are ruled out, since in these scenarios black holes produced by cosmic rays impinging on much denser white dwarfs and neutron stars would then catalyze their decay on time scales incompatible with their known lifetimes. We also comment on relevant lifetimes for astronomical objects that capture primordial black holes. In short, this study finds no basis for concerns that TeV-scale black holes from the LHC could pose a risk to Earth on time scales shorter than the Earth's natural lifetime. Indeed, conservative arguments based on detailed calculations and the best-available scientific knowledge, including solid astronomical data, conclude, from multiple perspectives, that there is no risk of any significance whatsoever from such black holes.« less

Influence of exposure assessment and parameterization on exposure response. Aspects of epidemiologic cohort analysis using the Libby Amphibole asbestos worker cohort.

PubMed

Bateson, Thomas F; Kopylev, Leonid

2015-01-01

Recent meta-analyses of occupational epidemiology studies identified two important exposure data quality factors in predicting summary effect measures for asbestos-associated lung cancer mortality risk: sufficiency of job history data and percent coverage of work history by measured exposures. The objective was to evaluate different exposure parameterizations suggested in the asbestos literature using the Libby, MT asbestos worker cohort and to evaluate influences of exposure measurement error caused by historically estimated exposure data on lung cancer risks. Focusing on workers hired after 1959, when job histories were well-known and occupational exposures were predominantly based on measured exposures (85% coverage), we found that cumulative exposure alone, and with allowance of exponential decay, fit lung cancer mortality data similarly. Residence-time-weighted metrics did not fit well. Compared with previous analyses based on the whole cohort of Libby workers hired after 1935, when job histories were less well-known and exposures less frequently measured (47% coverage), our analyses based on higher quality exposure data yielded an effect size as much as 3.6 times higher. Future occupational cohort studies should continue to refine retrospective exposure assessment methods, consider multiple exposure metrics, and explore new methods of maintaining statistical power while minimizing exposure measurement error.

Third and Fourth Degree Perineal Injury After Vaginal Delivery: Does Race Make a Difference?

PubMed Central

de Silva, Kanoe-Lehua; Tsai, Pai-Jong Stacy; Kon, Leanne M; Kessel, Bruce; Seto, Todd; Kaneshiro, Bliss

2014-01-01

Severe perineal injury (third and fourth degree laceration) at the time of vaginal delivery increases the risk of fecal incontinence, chronic perineal pain, and dyspareunia.1–5 Studies suggest the prevalence of severe perineal injury may vary by racial group.6 The purpose of the current study was to examine rates of severe perineal injury in different Asian and Pacific Islander subgroups. A retrospective cohort study was performed among all patients who had a vaginal delivery at Queens Medical Center in Honolulu, Hawai‘i between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2003. Demographic and health related variables were obtained for each participant. Maternal race/ethnicity (Japanese, Filipino, Chinese, other Asian, Part-Hawaiian/Hawaiian, Micronesian, other Pacific Islander, Caucasian, multiracial [non-Hawaiian], and other) was self-reported by the patient at the time admission. The significance of associations between racial/ethnic groups and demographic and health related variables was determined using chi-square tests for categorical variables and analysis of variance for continuous factors. Multiple logistic regression was performed to adjust for potential confounders when examining severe laceration rates. A total of 1842 subjects met inclusion criteria. The proportion of severe perineal lacerations did not differ significantly between racial groups. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, operative vaginal delivery was related to both race and severe perineal laceration. However, despite adjusting for this variable, race was not associated with an increased risk of having a severe laceration (P = .70). The results of this study indicate the risk of severe perineal laceration does not differ based on maternal race/ethnicity. PMID:24660124

77 FR 59139 - Prompt Corrective Action, Requirements for Insurance, and Promulgation of NCUA Rules and Regulations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

... threshold is used to define a ``complex'' credit union for determining whether risk-based net worth... credit union (FICU) is subject to certain interest rate risk rule requirements. \\1\\ IRPS 03-2, 68 FR... multiple applications, while avoiding undue risk to the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF...

Caries risk assessment in schoolchildren - a form based on Cariogram® software

PubMed Central

CABRAL, Renata Nunes; HILGERT, Leandro Augusto; FABER, Jorge; LEAL, Soraya Coelho

2014-01-01

Identifying caries risk factors is an important measure which contributes to best understanding of the cariogenic profile of the patient. The Cariogram® software provides this analysis, and protocols simplifying the method were suggested. Objectives The aim of this study was to determine whether a newly developed Caries Risk Assessment (CRA) form based on the Cariogram® software could classify schoolchildren according to their caries risk and to evaluate relationships between caries risk and the variables in the form. Material and Methods 150 schoolchildren aged 5 to 7 years old were included in this survey. Caries prevalence was obtained according to International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) II. Information for filling in the form based on Cariogram® was collected clinically and from questionnaires sent to parents. Linear regression and a forward stepwise multiple regression model were applied to correlate the variables included in the form with the caries risk. Results Caries prevalence, in primary dentition, including enamel and dentine carious lesions was 98.6%, and 77.3% when only dentine lesions were considered. Eighty-six percent of the children were classified as at moderate caries risk. The forward stepwise multiple regression model result was significant (R2=0.904; p<0.00001), showing that the most significant factors influencing caries risk were caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources. Conclusion The use of the form based on the Cariogram® software enabled classification of the schoolchildren at low, moderate and high caries risk. Caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources are the variables that were shown to be highly correlated with caries risk. PMID:25466473

Optimization and development of stable w/o/w cosmetic multiple emulsions by means of the Quality by Design approach.

PubMed

Kovács, A; Erős, I; Csóka, I

2016-04-01

The aim of our present work was to develop stable water-in-oil-in-water (w/o/w) cosmetic multiple emulsions that are proper for cosmetic use and can also be applied on the skin as pharmaceutical vehicles by means of Quality by Design (QbD) concept. This product design concept consists of a risk assessment step and also the 'predetermination' of the critical material attributes and process parameters of a stable multiple emulsion system. We have set up the hypothesis that the stability of multiple emulsions can be improved by the development based on such systematic planning - making a map of critical product parameters - so their industrial usage can be increased. The risk assessment and the determination of critical physical-chemical stability parameters of w/o/w multiple emulsions to define critical control points were performed by means of quality tools and the leanqbd(™) (QbD Works LLC, Fremont, CA, U.S.A.) software. Critical materials and process parameters: Based on the results of preformulation experiments, three factors, namely entrapped active agent, preparation methodology and shear rate, were found to be highly critical factors for critical quality attributes (CQAs) and for stability, whereas the nature of oil was found a medium level risk factor. The results of the risk assessment are the following: (i) droplet structure and size distribution should be evaluated together to be able to predict the stability issues, (ii) the presence of entrapped active agents had a great impact on droplet structure, (iii) the viscosity curves represent the structural changes during storage, if the decrease in relative viscosity is >15% the emulsion disintegrates, and (iv) it is enough to use the shear rate between 34g and 116g relative centrifugal force (RCF). CQAs: By risk assessment, we discovered that four factors should be considered to be high-risk variables as compared to others: droplet size, droplet structure, viscosity and multiple character were found to be highly critical attributes. The preformulation experiment is the part of a development plan. On the basis of these results, the control strategy can be defined and a stable multiple emulsion can be ensured that meets the relevant stakeholders' quality expectations. © 2015 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Reducing economic risk in areally anisotropic formations with multiple-lateral horizontal wells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, J.; Economides, M.J.; Frick, T.P.

1995-12-31

Well orientation is critical to horizontal well performance in areally anisotropic reservoirs. A horizontal well, drilled normal to the direction of maximum permeability, will have higher productivity than one drilled in any other arbitrary direction. Currently, horizontal permeability magnitudes and even indications of direction are rarely measured in the field. Based on well performance modeling and economic evaluation, this study attempts to determine the relative attractiveness of horizontal wells with multiple-laterals. The work exposes the economic risk in ignoring horizontal permeability magnitudes and directions and demonstrates the importance of adequate reservoir testing. A new rationalization for multiple-lateral horizontal wells ismore » the reduction of the economic risk associated with poor reservoir characterization in areally anisotropic formations while increasing the incremental net present value (NPV) over single-horizontal wells.« less

The Changing Landscape of Smoldering Multiple Myeloma: A European Perspective

PubMed Central

Fernández de Larrea, Carlos; Leleu, Xavier; Heusschen, Roy; Zojer, Niklas; Decaux, Olivier; Kastritis, Efstathios; Minnema, Monique; Jurczyszyn, Artur; Beguin, Yves; Wäsch, Ralph; Palumbo, Antonio; Dimopoulos, Meletios; Mateos, Maria Victoria; Ludwig, Heinz; Engelhardt, Monika

2016-01-01

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic clonal plasma cell disorder and bridges monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance to multiple myeloma (MM), based on higher levels of circulating monoclonal immunoglobulin and bone marrow plasmocytosis without end-organ damage. Until a Spanish study reported fewer MM-related events and better overall survival among patients with high-risk SMM treated with lenalidomide and dexamethasone, prior studies had failed to show improved survival with earlier intervention, although a reduction in skeletal-related events (without any impact on disease progression) has been described with bisphosphonate use. Risk factors have now been defined, and a subset of ultra-high-risk patients have been reclassified by the International Myeloma Working Group as MM, and thus will require optimal MM treatment, based on biomarkers that identify patients with a >80% risk of progression. The number of these redefined patients is small (∼10%), but important to unravel, because their risk of progression to overt MM is substantial (≥80% within 2 years). Patients with a high-risk cytogenetic profile are not yet considered for early treatment, because groups are heterogeneous and risk factors other than cytogenetics are deemed to weight higher. Because patients with ultra-high-risk SMM are now considered as MM and may be treated as such, concerns exist that earlier therapy may increase the risk of selecting resistant clones and induce side effects and costs. Therefore, an even more accurate identification of patients who would benefit from interventions needs to be performed, and clinical judgment and careful discussion of pros and cons of treatment initiation need to be undertaken. For the majority of SMM patients, the standard of care remains observation until development of symptomatic MM occurs, encouraging participation in ongoing and upcoming SMM/early MM clinical trials, as well as consideration of bisphosphonate use in patients with early bone loss. Implications for Practice: Smoldering multiple myeloma is an early stage of myeloma disease and is diagnosed before any symptoms occur. Recent research has redefined the diagnostic criteria for multiple myeloma, offering new insights into testing and classification of this malignancy. Risk factors have now been defined and three biomarkers have been validated that are able to identify patients presenting a high risk of progression toward a symptomatic disease. These biomarkers will help physicians to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from optimal treatment. This article summarizes the views of a European panel of hematologists on the implicated changes in patient care. PMID:26921288

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Understanding the dynamics of terrorism events with multiple-discipline datasets and machine learning approach

PubMed Central

Ding, Fangyu; Ge, Quansheng; Fu, Jingying; Hao, Mengmeng

2017-01-01

Terror events can cause profound consequences for the whole society. Finding out the regularity of terrorist attacks has important meaning for the global counter-terrorism strategy. In the present study, we demonstrate a novel method using relatively popular and robust machine learning methods to simulate the risk of terrorist attacks at a global scale based on multiple resources, long time series and globally distributed datasets. Historical data from 1970 to 2015 was adopted to train and evaluate machine learning models. The model performed fairly well in predicting the places where terror events might occur in 2015, with a success rate of 96.6%. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the model with optimized tuning parameter values successfully predicted 2,037 terrorism event locations where a terrorist attack had never happened before. PMID:28591138

Understanding the dynamics of terrorism events with multiple-discipline datasets and machine learning approach.

PubMed

Ding, Fangyu; Ge, Quansheng; Jiang, Dong; Fu, Jingying; Hao, Mengmeng

2017-01-01

Terror events can cause profound consequences for the whole society. Finding out the regularity of terrorist attacks has important meaning for the global counter-terrorism strategy. In the present study, we demonstrate a novel method using relatively popular and robust machine learning methods to simulate the risk of terrorist attacks at a global scale based on multiple resources, long time series and globally distributed datasets. Historical data from 1970 to 2015 was adopted to train and evaluate machine learning models. The model performed fairly well in predicting the places where terror events might occur in 2015, with a success rate of 96.6%. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the model with optimized tuning parameter values successfully predicted 2,037 terrorism event locations where a terrorist attack had never happened before.

Mortality and long-term exposure to ambient air pollution: ongoing analyses based on the American Cancer Society cohort.

PubMed

Krewski, Daniel; Burnett, Richard; Jerrett, Michael; Pope, C Arden; Rainham, Daniel; Calle, Eugenia; Thurston, George; Thun, Michael

This article provides an overview of previous analysis and reanalysis of the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort, along with an indication of current ongoing analyses of the cohort with additional follow-up information through to 2000. Results of the first analysis conducted by Pope et al. (1995) showed that higher average sulfate levels were associated with increased mortality, particularly from cardiopulmonary disease. A reanalysis of the ACS cohort, undertaken by Krewski et al. (2000), found the original risk estimates for fine-particle and sulfate air pollution to be highly robust against alternative statistical techniques and spatial modeling approaches. A detailed investigation of covariate effects found a significant modifying effect of education with risk of mortality associated with fine particles declining with increasing educational attainment. Pope et al. (2002) subsequently reported results of a subsequent study using an additional 10 yr of follow-up of the ACS cohort. This updated analysis included gaseous copollutant and new fine-particle measurements, more comprehensive information on occupational exposures, dietary variables, and the most recent developments in statistical modeling integrating random effects and nonparametric spatial smoothing into the Cox proportional hazards model. Robust associations between ambient fine particulate air pollution and elevated risks of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortality were clearly evident, providing the strongest evidence to date that long-term exposure to fine particles is an important health risk. Current ongoing analysis using the extended follow-up information will explore the role of ecologic, economic, and, demographic covariates in the particulate air pollution and mortality association. This analysis will also provide insight into the role of spatial autocorrelation at multiple geographic scales, and whether critical instances in time of exposure to fine particles influence the risk of mortality from cardiopulmonary and lung cancer. Information on the influence of covariates at multiple scales and of critical exposure time windows can assist policymakers in establishing timelines for regulatory interventions that maximize population health benefits.

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Hou, Zhangshuan; Meng, Da

2016-07-17

In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.

Drug Use and Sexual HIV Transmission Risk Among Men Who have Sex with Men and Women (MSMW), Men Who have Sex with Men only (MSMO), and Men Who have Sex with Women Only (MSWO) and the Female Partners of MSMW and MSWO: A Network Perspective.

PubMed

Dyer, Typhanye V; Khan, Maria R; Sandoval, Milagros; Acheampong, Abenaa; Regan, Rotrease; Bolyard, Melissa; Mateu-Gelabert, Pedro; Friedman, Samuel R

2017-12-01

We described drug use, sex risk, and STI/HIV among men who have sex with men and women (MSMW) and their female partners. We used the Network, Norms and HIV/STI Risk among Youth (NNAHRAY) study to evaluate drug use, sex risk, and biologically-confirmed STI/HIV in (1) MSMW and men who had sex with men only (MSMO) versus men who had sex with women only (MSWO) and (2) female partners of MSMW versus female partners of MSWO (N = 182 men, 152 women). MSMW versus MSWO had 30 to 60% increased odds of substance use, over twice the odds of multiple partnerships, and almost five times the odds of sex trade and HIV infection. Female partners of MSMW versus female partners of MSWO had approximately twice the odds of substance use and 1.5-2 times the odds of multiple partnerships and sex trade. Interventions should address STI/HIV risk among MSMW and their female partners.

Adolescent maltreatment in the child welfare system and developmental patterns of sexual risk behaviors.

PubMed

Fowler, Patrick J; Motley, Darnell; Zhang, Jinjin; Rolls-Reutz, Jennifer; Landsverk, John

2015-02-01

In this longitudinal study, we tested whether adolescent maltreatment and out-of-home placement as a response to maltreatment altered developmental patterns of sexual risk behaviors in a nationally representative sample of youth involved in the child welfare system. Participants included adolescents aged 13 to 17 (M = 15.5, SD = 1.49) at baseline (n = 714), followed over 18 months. Computer-assisted interviews were used to collect self-reported sexual practices and experiences of physical and psychological abuse at both time points. Latent transition analyses were used to identify three patterns of sexual risk behaviors: abstainers, safe sex with multiple partners, and unsafe sex with multiple partners. Most adolescents transitioned to safer sexual behavior patterns over time. Adolescents exhibiting the riskiest sexual practices at baseline were most likely to report subsequent abuse and less likely to be placed into out-of-home care. Findings provide a more nuanced understanding of sexual risk among child welfare-involved adolescents and inform practices to promote positive transitions within the system. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Impact of Five VDR Polymorphisms on Multiple Sclerosis Risk and Progression: a Case-Control and Genotype-Phenotype Study.

PubMed

Křenek, Pavel; Benešová, Yvonne; Bienertová-Vašků, Julie; Vašků, Anna

2018-04-01

Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms have been the target of many studies focusing on multiple sclerosis. However, previously reported results have been inconclusive. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between five vitamin D receptor polymorphisms (EcoRV, FokI, ApaI, TaqI, and BsmI) and multiple sclerosis susceptibility and its course. The study was carried out as a case-control and genotype-phenotype study, consisted of 296 Czech multiple sclerosis patients and 135 healthy controls. Genotyping was carried out using polymerase chain reaction and restriction analysis. In multiple sclerosis men, allele and/or genotype distributions differed in EcoRV, TaqI, BsmI, and ApaI polymorphisms as compared to controls (EcoRV, p a = 0.02; Taq, p g = 0.02, p a = 0.02; BsmI, p g = 0.02, p a = 0.04; ApaI, p g = 0.008, p a = 0.005). In multiple sclerosis women, differences in the frequency of alleles and genotypes were found to be significant in ApaI (controls vs multiple sclerosis women: p g = 0.01, p a = 0.05). Conclusive results were observed between multiple sclerosis women in the case of EcoRV [differences in Expanded Disability Status Scale (p = 0.05); CT genotype was found to increase the risk of primary progressive multiple sclerosis 5.5 times (CT vs CC+TT p corr = 0.01, sensitivity 0.833, specificity 0.525, power test 0.823)] and FokI [borderline difference in Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (p = 0.05)]. Our results indicate that the distribution of investigated vitamin D receptor polymorphisms is a risk factor for multiple sclerosis susceptibility and progression in the Czech population. The association between disease risk and polymorphisms was found to be stronger in men. The association of disease progression with polymorphisms was observed only in women.

The European approach to in-transit melanoma lesions.

PubMed

Hoekstra, H J

2008-05-01

The biological behavior of melanoma is unpredictable. Three to five per cent of melanoma patients will develop in-transit lesions and the median time to recurrence ranges between 13-16 months. At the time of recurrence the risk of occult nodal metastasis, with clinically negative regional lymph nodes, is as high as 50%. The risk of in-transit lesions depends on the tumor biology and not on the surgical approach to the regional lymph nodes. The high incidence of in-transit lesions at the lower limb may be caused by the gravity and delayed lymphatic drainage. The treatment of limited disease is local excision, laser ablation, cryosurgery, while multiple in-transit lesions or bulky disease located in a limb can be successfully treated with regional chemotherapy, a therapeutic isolated limb perfusion or infusion with melphalan or a combination of melphalan and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha. If local regional treatment or systemic dacarbazine based systemic treatment fails, novel systemic treatment strategies with vaccines, antibodies and gene therapy are currently investigated.

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

PubMed Central

Renaud, Fabrice G.; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

2017-01-01

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented. PMID:28248969

Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling in Cumulative Risk Assessment for N-Methyl Carbamate Insecticides

EPA Science Inventory

Human exposure to xenobiotics may occur through multiple pathways and routes of entry punctuated by exposure intervals throughout a work or leisure day. Exposure to a single environmental chemical along multiple pathways and routes (aggregate exposure) may have an influence on an...

Is This Kid a Likely Experimenter or a Likely Persister? An Analysis of Individual-Level and Family-Level Risk Factors Predicting Multiple Offending Among a Group of Adjudicated Youth.

PubMed

Buker, Hasan; Erbay, Ayhan

2018-02-01

To implement effective diversion programs and determine for a well-suited intervention strategy, ascertaining who, among the adjudicated youth, is more likely to involve in multiple offending, rather than desisting after an initial delinquent behavior, is of great significance. The overall objective of this study, therefore, is to contribute to the existing knowledge on assessing the risks for multiple offending during juvenile adjudication processes. In this regard, this study examined the predicting powers of several individual-level and family-level risk factors on multiple offending during adolescence, based on a data set derived from court-ordered social examination reports (SERs) on 400 adjudicated youth in Turkey. Two binomial regression models were implemented to test the predictor values of various risk factors from these two domains. Results indicated the following as significant predictors of multiple offending among the subjects: younger age of onset in delinquency, dropping out of school, having delinquent/drug abusing (risky) friends, being not able to share problems with the family, increased number of siblings, and having a domestically migrated family. Conclusively, these findings were compared with the existing literature, and the policy implications and recommendations for future research were discussed.

Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions.

PubMed

Price, Bertram; MacNicoll, Michael

2015-05-01

A persistent problem in health risk analysis where it is known that a disease may occur as a consequence of multiple risk factors with interactions is allocating the total risk of the disease among the individual risk factors. This problem, referred to here as risk apportionment, arises in various venues, including: (i) public health management, (ii) government programs for compensating injured individuals, and (iii) litigation. Two methods have been described in the risk analysis and epidemiology literature for allocating total risk among individual risk factors. One method uses weights to allocate interactions among the individual risk factors. The other method is based on risk accounting axioms and finding an optimal and unique allocation that satisfies the axioms using a procedure borrowed from game theory. Where relative risk or attributable risk is the risk measure, we find that the game-theory-determined allocation is the same as the allocation where risk factor interactions are apportioned to individual risk factors using equal weights. Therefore, the apportionment problem becomes one of selecting a meaningful set of weights for allocating interactions among the individual risk factors. Equal weights and weights proportional to the risks of the individual risk factors are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

2016-01-01

In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

2012-03-01

Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

Combined effects of multiple risk factors on asthma in school-aged children.

PubMed

Szentpetery, Sylvia S; Gruzieva, Olena; Forno, Erick; Han, Yueh-Ying; Bergström, Anna; Kull, Inger; Acosta-Pérez, Edna; Colón-Semidey, Angel; Alvarez, Maria; Canino, Glorisa J; Melén, Erik; Celedón, Juan C

2017-12-01

Little is known about synergistic effects of several risk factors on asthma. We developed a risk score in Puerto Rican children, and then used this score to estimate the combined effects of multiple risk factors on asthma at school age in Puerto Rican and Swedish children. Case-control study in 609 Puerto Rican children (aged 6-14 years) and longitudinal birth cohort study of 2290 Swedish children followed up to age 12 years (The Children, Allergy, Milieu, Stockholm, Epidemiological Survey [BAMSE] Study). In both cohorts, there was data on parental asthma, sex, obesity, allergic rhinitis, and early-life second-hand smoke (SHS); data on diet and (in children ≥9 years) lifetime exposure to gun violence were also available in the Puerto Rico study. Asthma was defined as physician-diagnosed asthma and ≥1 episode of wheeze in the previous year. In a multivariable analysis in Puerto Rican children, male sex, parental asthma, allergic rhinitis, early-life SHS, an unhealthy diet and (in children ≥9 years) gun violence were each significantly associated with asthma. We next created a risk score using these variables (range, 0 to 5-6 in Puerto Rico and 0 to 4 in BAMSE). Compared with Puerto Rican children without any risk factors (i.e. a score of 0), Puerto Rican children with 2, 3, and at least 4 risk factors had 3.6 times (95% CI = 1.4-9.2), 10.4 times (95% CI = 4.0-27.0), and 21.6 times (95% CI = 7.2-64.9) significantly higher odds of asthma, respectively. In BAMSE, the presence of 2, 3, and at least 4 risk factors was significantly associated with 4.1 times (95% CI = 2.3-7.4), 6.3 times (95% CI = 3.0-13.3), and 17.2 times (95% CI = 4.1-73.2) increased odds of asthma at age 12 years. Our findings emphasize the multifactorial etiology of asthma, and suggest that concurrent eradication or reduction of several modifiable risk factors may better prevent or reduce the burden of childhood asthma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distinct encoding of risk and value in economic choice between multiple risky options☆

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Neural encoding of value-based stimuli is suggested to involve representations of summary statistics, including risk and expected value (EV). A more complex, but ecologically more common, context is when multiple risky options are evaluated together. However, it is unknown whether encoding related to option evaluation in these situations involves similar principles. Here we employed fMRI during a task that parametrically manipulated EV and risk in two simultaneously presented lotteries, both of which contained either gains or losses. We found representations of EV in medial prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, an encoding that was dependent on which option was chosen (i.e. chosen and unchosen EV) and whether the choice was over gains or losses. Parietal activity reflected whether the riskier or surer option was selected, whilst activity in a network of regions that also included parietal cortex reflected both combined risk and difference in risk for the two options. Our findings provide support for the idea that summary statistics underpin a representation of value-based stimuli, and further that these summary statistics undergo distinct forms of encoding. PMID:23684860

Low Back Pain Subgroups using Fear-Avoidance Model Measures: Results of a Cluster Analysis

PubMed Central

Beneciuk, Jason M.; Robinson, Michael E.; George, Steven Z.

2012-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this secondary analysis was to test the hypothesis that an empirically derived psychological subgrouping scheme based on multiple Fear-Avoidance Model (FAM) constructs would provide additional capabilities for clinical outcomes in comparison to a single FAM construct. Methods Patients (n = 108) with acute or sub-acute low back pain (LBP) enrolled in a clinical trial comparing behavioral physical therapy interventions to classification based physical therapy completed baseline questionnaires for pain catastrophizing (PCS), fear-avoidance beliefs (FABQ-PA, FABQ-W), and patient-specific fear (FDAQ). Clinical outcomes were pain intensity and disability measured at baseline, 4-weeks, and 6-months. A hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis was used to create distinct cluster profiles among FAM measures and discriminant analysis was used to interpret clusters. Changes in clinical outcomes were investigated with repeated measures ANOVA and differences in results based on cluster membership were compared to FABQ-PA subgrouping used in the original trial. Results Three distinct FAM subgroups (Low Risk, High Specific Fear, and High Fear & Catastrophizing) emerged from cluster analysis. Subgroups differed on baseline pain and disability (p’s<.01) with the High Fear & Catastrophizing subgroup associated with greater pain than the Low Risk subgroup (p<.01) and the greatest disability (p’s<.05). Subgroup × time interactions were detected for both pain and disability (p’s<.05) with the High Fear & Catastrophizing subgroup reporting greater changes in pain and disability than other subgroups (p’s<.05). In contrast, FABQ-PA subgroups used in the original trial were not associated with interactions for clinical outcomes. Discussion These data suggest that subgrouping based on multiple FAM measures may provide additional information on clinical outcomes in comparison to determining subgroup status by FABQ-PA alone. Subgrouping methods for patients with LBP should include multiple psychological factors to further explore if patients can be matched with appropriate interventions. PMID:22510537

Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps.

PubMed

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-03-04

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to mountain hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to mountain hazards (river floods, torrential floods, and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the period from 1919 to 2012. The assessment is based on two different data sets: (1) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (2) information on building types combined from different national-level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social, and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that whereas some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies toward an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system.

Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps

PubMed Central

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-01-01

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to mountain hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to mountain hazards (river floods, torrential floods, and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the period from 1919 to 2012. The assessment is based on two different data sets: (1) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (2) information on building types combined from different national-level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social, and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that whereas some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies toward an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system. PMID:28267154

Flood hazard management from a coevolutionary perspective: exposure and policy response in the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to hydrological hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to flood hazards (river floods, torrential floods and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the 1919-2012 period. The assessment is based on two different datasets, (a) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (b) information on building types combined from different national level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in the response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that while some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk, and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies towards an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system.

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

Coordination of International Standards with Implementation of the IECRE Conformity Assessment System to Provide Multiple Certification Offerings for PV Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, George; Haring, Adrian; Spooner, Ted

To help address the industry's needs for assuring the value and reducing the risk of investments in PV power plants; the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) has established a new conformity assessment system for renewable energy (IECRE). There are presently important efforts underway to define the requirements for various types of PV system certificates, and publication of the international standards upon which these certifications will be based. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the interrelationship of these activities and the timing for initiation of IECRE PV system certifications.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Gait Speed among Older Participants Enrolled in an Evidence-Based Fall Risk Reduction Program: A Subgroup Analysis.

PubMed

Cho, Jinmyoung; Smith, Matthew Lee; Shubert, Tiffany E; Jiang, Luohua; Ahn, SangNam; Ory, Marcia G

2015-01-01

Functional decline is a primary risk factor for institutionalization and mortality among older adults. Although community-based fall risk reduction programs have been widely disseminated, little is known about their impact on gait speed, a key indicator of functional performance. Changes in functional performance between baseline and post-intervention were examined by means of timed up and go (TUG), a standardized functional assessment test administered to participants enrolled in A Matter of Balance/Volunteer Lay Leader (AMOB/VLL) model, an evidence-based fall risk reduction program. This study included 71 participants enrolled in an AMOB/VLL program in the Brazos Valley and South Plain regions of Texas. Paired t-tests were employed to assess program effects on gait speed at baseline and post-intervention for all participants and by subgroups of age, sex, living status, delivery sites, and self-rated health. The Bonferroni correction was applied to adjust inflated Type I error rate associated with performing multiple t-tests, for which p-values <0.0042 (i.e., 0.5/12 comparisons) were deemed statistically significant. Overall, gait speed of enrolled participants improved from baseline to post-intervention (t = 3.22, p = 0.002). Significant changes in TUG scores were observed among participants who lived with others (t = 4.45, p < 0.001), rated their health as excellent, very good, or good (t = 3.05, p = 0.003), and attended program workshops at senior centers (t = 3.52, p = 0.003). Findings suggest community-based fall risk reduction programs can improve gait speed for older adults. More translational research is needed to understand factors related to the effectiveness of fall risk reduction programs in various populations and settings.

Smoldering multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

Landgren, Ola; Mateos, María-Victoria

2015-01-01

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic clonal plasma cell disorder. SMM is distinguished from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance by a much higher risk of progression to multiple myeloma (MM). There have been major advances in the diagnosis, prognosis, and management of SMM in the last few years. These include a revised disease definition, identification of several new prognostic factors, a classification based on underlying cytogenetic changes, and new treatment options. Importantly, a subset of patients previously considered SMM is now reclassified as MM on the basis of biomarkers identifying patients with an ≥80% risk of progression within 2 years. SMM has assumed greater significance on the basis of recent trials showing that early therapy can be potentially beneficial to patients. As a result, there is a need to accurately diagnose and risk-stratify patients with SMM, including routine incorporation of modern imaging and laboratory techniques. In this review, we outline current concepts in diagnosis and risk stratification of SMM, and provide specific recommendations on the management of SMM. PMID:25838344

Suicidal Ideation and Its Recurrence in Boys and Men from Early Adolescence to Early Adulthood: An Event History Analysis

PubMed Central

Kerr, David C. R.; Owen, Lee. D.; Capaldi, Deborah M.

2008-01-01

Occurrence and recurrences of suicidal ideation (SI) were modeled among boys/men assessed annually from ages 12 to 29 years. Multiple-spell discrete-time event history analyses permitted (a) determination of whether risk for SI escalates with prior experiences of SI (Spell effects), (b) while accounting for changes in risk with time (Period effects), and (c) controlling for vulnerability factors. Self-reported SI (presence/absence in past week), depressive symptoms, alcohol/substance use, and antisocial behavior, and official arrest records were collected annually from 205 boys recruited on the basis of community risk for delinquency. Parents’ self-reported psychopathology and SES were collected in childhood. Period effects supported decreasing risk for SI over time. Spell and time-varying, 1-year lagged substance use and depressive symptoms independently predicted increased risk for SI. Models involving SI with intent were explored. Consistent with interpersonal psychological theory, risk for young men’s SI increases with past experience of SI, even with key propensities controlled; however, risk also decays over time. Targeting conditions that confer risk for SI is essential. Preventing and delaying SI occurrence and recurrence may represent independent mechanisms by which prevention efforts operate. PMID:18729614

Management of high-risk Myeloma: an evidence-based review of treatment strategies.

PubMed

Lehners, Nicola; Hayden, Patrick J; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Raab, Marc-Steffen

2016-08-01

Despite the progress made in the treatment of patients with multiple myeloma over recent decades, a significant cohort with high-risk disease as defined by specific clinical and genetic criteria continue to respond poorly to standard treatment. These patients represent a particular challenge to the treating physician and require early identification as well as personalized treatment strategies. In this review, we discuss the prognostic impact of adverse clinical, radiological and genetic factors, evaluate available scoring systems and highlight key aspects of the therapeutic management of high-risk myeloma. MEDLINE and recent scientific meetings' databases were searched for the keywords 'high-risk' and 'multiple myeloma' and relevant studies relating to both diagnostic and therapeutic approaches were identified. Expert commentary: A case is made for intensive induction using combinations of novel agents, early high-dose therapy supported by autologous stem cell transplantation and the widespread use of maintenance therapies. Novel therapeutic options, especially in the field of immunotherapy, are currently explored in clinical trials and have the potential to further improve outcomes for patients with high-risk multiple myeloma.

Multiple myeloma among Danish women: employment history and workplace exposures.

PubMed

Pottern, L M; Heineman, E F; Olsen, J H; Raffn, E; Blair, A

1992-09-01

To investigate the role of employment history and workplace exposures as risk factors for multiple myeloma among women, a population-based case-control study using the Danish Cancer Registry data linkage system was conducted. All cases of myeloma diagnosed in Danish women between 1970 and 1984 (1,010 cases) and 4,040 age-matched women alive at the time of case-diagnosis were identified. Industrial histories from 1964 forward were obtained from the nationwide Pension Fund for 363 cases and 1,517 controls, and the most recent occupation on the tax record was available for 607 cases and 2,596 controls. Using industry/occupational-code combinations for the cases and controls who had industry employment, Danish industrial hygienists assessed the likelihood of exposure to 47 workplace substances. An increased myeloma risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.2, 95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.5) was seen for women not in the Pension Fund, but who had an occupational title coded as 'Mrs/homemaker.' Nonsignificantly elevated risks of 1.3 or greater were observed for employment in: production of agricultural products; orchards/nurseries; spinning/weaving; other textile and plastics manufacturing; hotel, entertainment, and social services industries. Elevated, but nonsignificant risks were observed for possible and probable exposure to exhaust fumes, formaldehyde, wood dust, animals or animal products, and pesticides. The strongest association with myeloma was employment in the agricultural industry (OR = 1.5, CI = 0.8-2.8), however, the number of women who worked on family farms was unknown and could not be included in this risk estimate.

Parents with mental health problems and their children in a German population based sample: Results of the BELLA study

PubMed Central

Otto, Christiane; Barkmann, Claus; Wiegand-Grefe, Silke; Hölling, Heike; Schulte-Markwort, Michael; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike; Klasen, Fionna

2017-01-01

Background Mental health problems (MHP) of parents are associated with an increased risk of psychological and developmental difficulties in their children. This study aims at analyzing population-based data of parents with MHP and their children and the effects of associated risk factors in order to further targeted preventive and therapeutic interventions. Methods The BELLA study is the mental health module of the German National Health Interview and Examination Survey among Children and Adolescents. MHP in parents and in their children as well as associated risk factors were examined in a sample of N = 1158 parents with children aged 11 to 17 years. Results Parental MHP were identified in 18.6% of the sample. Risk factors associated with parental MHP were low SES, parental unemployment, stressful life events, parental daily strain, parental chronic disease, and child MHP. A rate of 19.1% of the children of parents with MHP reported MHP themselves, the corresponding rate among children of parents without MHP was 7.7%. In multiple regression analyses the risk for children of parents with MHP to report MHP themselves was almost two times higher than the risk of children of parents without MHP. Other significant associations with child MHP included gender, the parents’ age, and stressful life events. Conclusions Parental MHP constitute a significant risk for the mental health of their children. Targeted screening methods and preventive interventions are needed. PMID:28671981

Sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behavior as risk factors for human papillomavirus infection in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Alhamlan, F S; Khayat, H H; Ramisetty-Mikler, S; Al-Muammar, T A; Tulbah, A M; Al-Badawi, I A; Kurdi, W I; Tulbah, M I; Alkhenizan, A A; Hussain, A N; Ahmed, M; Al-Ahdal, M N

2016-05-01

To determine the prevalence and the sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behavior risk factors for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in a hospital-based cohort of women in Saudi Arabia. Cervical specimens and questionnaire data were collected from women attending clinics in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Cervical specimens were examined for abnormal cytology using a standard Pap test and for the presence of HPV-DNA using PCR and reverse line blot hybridization tests. Approximately 73% of the 400 women tested were Saudi nationals. Nearly 50% were under 40 years old (range 22-80 years, mean±standard deviation 41.20±10.43 years). Approximately 17% of the women were HPV-positive. The most commonly detected HPV types were HPV-18 (34%) and HPV-16 (19%), with multiple infections detected in 10% of positive specimens. Multivariate analyses revealed that smoking and multiple partners were significant risk factors for HPV infection (p<0.01). Because of societal challenges and an unsubstantiated assumption of low HPV prevalence, few studies have examined sociodemographic characteristics or sexual behaviors associated with HPV in Saudi women. However, a high prevalence of HPV infection was found, with smoking and multiple partners as significant risk factors, in this hospital-based cohort of predominantly Saudi women. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Using Survival Analysis to Understand Patterns of Sustainment within a System-Driven Implementation of Multiple Evidence-Based Practices for Children's Mental Health Services.

PubMed

Brookman-Frazee, Lauren; Zhan, Chanel; Stadnick, Nicole; Sommerfeld, David; Roesch, Scott; Aarons, Gregory A; Innes-Gomberg, Debbie; Bando, Lillian; Lau, Anna S

2018-01-01

Evidence-based practice (EBP) implementation requires substantial resources in workforce training; yet, failure to achieve long-term sustainment can result in poor return on investment. There is limited research on EBP sustainment in mental health services long after implementation. This study examined therapists' continued vs. discontinued practice delivery based on administrative claims for reimbursement for six EBPs [Cognitive Behavioral Interventions for Trauma in Schools (CBITS), Child-Parent Psychotherapy, Managing and Adapting Practices (MAP), Seeking Safety (SS), Trauma-Focused Cognitive Behavior Therapy (TF-CBT), and Positive Parenting Program] adopted in a system-driven implementation effort in public mental health services for children. Our goal was to identify agency and therapist factors associated with a sustained EBP delivery. Survival analysis (i.e., Kaplan-Meier survival functions, log-rank tests, and Cox regressions) was used to analyze 19 fiscal quarters (i.e., approximately 57 months) of claims data from the Prevention and Early Intervention Transformation within the Los Angeles County Department of Mental Health. These data comprised 2,322,389 claims made by 6,873 therapists across 88 agencies. Survival time was represented by the time elapsed from therapists' first to final claims for each practice and for any of the six EBPs. Results indicate that therapists continued to deliver at least one EBP for a mean survival time of 21.73 months (median = 18.70). When compared to a survival curve of the five other EBPs, CBITS, SS, and TP demonstrated a higher risk of delivery discontinuation, whereas MAP and TF-CBT demonstrated a lower risk of delivery discontinuation. A multivariate Cox regression model revealed that agency (centralization and service setting) and therapist (demographics, discipline, and case-mix characteristics) characteristics were significantly associated with risk of delivery discontinuation for any of the six EBPs. This study illustrates a novel application of survival analysis to administrative claims data in system-driven implementation of multiple EBPs. Findings reveal variability in the long-term continuation of therapist-level delivery of EBPs and highlight the importance of both agency and workforce characteristics in the sustained delivery of EBPs. Findings direct the field to potential targets of sustainment interventions (e.g., strategic assignment of therapists to EBP training and strategic selection of EBPs by agencies).

Racial disparities in BRCA testing and cancer risk management across a population-based sample of young breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Cragun, Deborah; Weidner, Anne; Lewis, Courtney; Bonner, Devon; Kim, Jongphil; Vadaparampil, Susan T; Pal, Tuya

2017-07-01

Breast cancer (BC) disparities may widen with genomic advances. The authors compared non-Hispanic white (NHW), black, and Hispanic BC survivors for 1) cancer risk-management practices among BRCA carriers and 2) provider discussion and receipt of genetic testing. A population-based sample of NHW, black, and Hispanic women who had been diagnosed with invasive BC at age 50 years or younger from 2009 to 2012 were recruited through the state cancer registry. Multiple logistic regression was used to compare cancer risk-management practices in BRCA carriers and associations of demographic and clinical variables with provider discussion and receipt of testing. Of 1622 participants, 159 of 440 (36.1%) black women, 579 of 897 (64.5%) NHW women, 58 of 117 (49.6%) Spanish-speaking Hispanic women, and 116 of 168 (69%) English-speaking Hispanic women underwent BRCA testing, of whom 90 had a pathogenic BRCA mutation identified. Among BRCA carriers, the rates of risk-reducing mastectomy and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy were significantly lower among black women compared with Hispanic and NHW women after controlling for clinical and demographic variables (P = .025 and P = .008, respectively). Compared with NHW women, discussion of genetic testing with a provider was 16 times less likely among black women (P < .0001) and nearly 2 times less likely among Spanish-speaking Hispanic women (P = .04) after controlling for clinical and sociodemographic factors. The current results suggest that the rates of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy are lower among black BRCA carriers compared with their Hispanic and NHW counterparts, which is concerning because benefits from genetic testing arise from cancer risk-management practice options. Furthermore, lower BRCA testing rates among blacks may partially be because of a lower likelihood of provider discussion. Future studies are needed to improve cancer risk identification and management practices across all populations to prevent the widening of disparities. Cancer 2017;123:2497-05. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Risk management of a fund for natural disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, C.

2003-04-01

Mexico is a country which has to deal with several natural disaster risks: earthquakes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, floods, slides, wild fires, extreme temperatures, etc. In order to reduce the country's vulnerability to the impact of these natural disasters and to support rapid recovery when they occur, the government established in 1996 Mexico's Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN). Since its creation, its resources have been insufficient to meet all government obligations. The aim of this project is the development of a dynamic strategy to optimise the management of a fund for natural disasters starting from the example of FONDEN. The problem of budgetary planning is being considered for the modelling. We control the level of the fund's cash (R_t)0<= t0 at t=0 and then we try to pull at every moment the process to this objective. Multifractal models in geophysics are physically based stochastic models. A multiplicative cascade model fitted to a data set can be used for generation of synthetic sequences that resemble the original data in terms of its scaling properties. Since recent years, uncertainty concepts based on multifractal fields are being applied to the development of techniques to calculate marginal and conditional probabilities of an extreme rainfall event in a determined zone. As initial point to the development of the model, a multifractal model for extreme rainfall events will be used as part of the input for the stochastic control model. A theme for further research is linking more warning systems to the model. Keywords: risk management, stochastic control, multifractal measures, multiplicative cascades, heavy rainfall events.

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

[SYNERGISM OF PRECONCEPTIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE AND PARENTS' ONCO-PATHOLOGY IN THE RISE OF CARCINOGENIC RISK IN THE OFFSPRINGS OF PROFESSIONAL EMPLOYEES].

PubMed

Telnov, V I; Kabirova, N R; Okatenko, P V

2015-01-01

The problem of carcinogenic risk in offsprings of individuals exposed to radiation is challenging and insufficiently studied. In that there are no evaluations of the interaction between radiation and non-radiation factors. The aim of the study was the analysis of interaction of preconceptive radiation exposure and parents' onco-pathology in cancer mortality in offsprings (F1) of workers (fathers) of the Mayak Production Association exposed to a wide range of doses of radiation over a year prior conception. The number of offspring is 8191 individuals (4180 men and 4011 women). The analysis was performed with the use of fourfold table and eightfold tables. The interaction offactors was estimated on the base of the additive and multiplicative models. The studied factors were independent. The odds ratio (OR) of cancer mortality in the offspring with parents' oncopathology (1.43) was insignificant. OR of cancer mortality in preconceptive radiation exposure in a dose over 110 mGy and without parents' onco-pathology was 2.61 (1.52-4.49), and in their combination--3.86 (1.93-7.71). Index of synergism of preconceptive radiation exposure and parents' onco-patholog in the rise of carcinogenic risk in the offspring was 1.34 and the character of their interaction was multiplicative. Thus, for the first time there was established the interaction between radiation and non-radiation factors in the synergism sort in the increase of carcinogenic risk in the offspring of people exposed to radiation.

A 17-gene assay to predict prostate cancer aggressiveness in the context of Gleason grade heterogeneity, tumor multifocality, and biopsy undersampling.

PubMed

Klein, Eric A; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; Simko, Jeffry P; Falzarano, Sara M; Maddala, Tara; Chan, June M; Li, Jianbo; Cowan, Janet E; Tsiatis, Athanasios C; Cherbavaz, Diana B; Pelham, Robert J; Tenggara-Hunter, Imelda; Baehner, Frederick L; Knezevic, Dejan; Febbo, Phillip G; Shak, Steven; Kattan, Michael W; Lee, Mark; Carroll, Peter R

2014-09-01

Prostate tumor heterogeneity and biopsy undersampling pose challenges to accurate, individualized risk assessment for men with localized disease. To identify and validate a biopsy-based gene expression signature that predicts clinical recurrence, prostate cancer (PCa) death, and adverse pathology. Gene expression was quantified by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for three studies-a discovery prostatectomy study (n=441), a biopsy study (n=167), and a prospectively designed, independent clinical validation study (n=395)-testing retrospectively collected needle biopsies from contemporary (1997-2011) patients with low to intermediate clinical risk who were candidates for active surveillance (AS). The main outcome measures defining aggressive PCa were clinical recurrence, PCa death, and adverse pathology at prostatectomy. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between gene expression and time to event end points. Results from the prostatectomy and biopsy studies were used to develop and lock a multigene-expression-based signature, called the Genomic Prostate Score (GPS); in the validation study, logistic regression was used to test the association between the GPS and pathologic stage and grade at prostatectomy. Decision-curve analysis and risk profiles were used together with clinical and pathologic characteristics to evaluate clinical utility. Of the 732 candidate genes analyzed, 288 (39%) were found to predict clinical recurrence despite heterogeneity and multifocality, and 198 (27%) were predictive of aggressive disease after adjustment for prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score, and clinical stage. Further analysis identified 17 genes representing multiple biological pathways that were combined into the GPS algorithm. In the validation study, GPS predicted high-grade (odds ratio [OR] per 20 GPS units: 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-3.7; p<0.001) and high-stage (OR per 20 GPS units: 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3-3.0; p=0.003) at surgical pathology. GPS predicted high-grade and/or high-stage disease after controlling for established clinical factors (p<0.005) such as an OR of 2.1 (95% CI, 1.4-3.2) when adjusting for Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score. A limitation of the validation study was the inclusion of men with low-volume intermediate-risk PCa (Gleason score 3+4), for whom some providers would not consider AS. Genes representing multiple biological pathways discriminate PCa aggressiveness in biopsy tissue despite tumor heterogeneity, multifocality, and limited sampling at time of biopsy. The biopsy-based 17-gene GPS improves prediction of the presence or absence of adverse pathology and may help men with PCa make more informed decisions between AS and immediate treatment. Prostate cancer (PCa) is often present in multiple locations within the prostate and has variable characteristics. We identified genes with expression associated with aggressive PCa to develop a biopsy-based, multigene signature, the Genomic Prostate Score (GPS). GPS was validated for its ability to predict men who have high-grade or high-stage PCa at diagnosis and may help men diagnosed with PCa decide between active surveillance and immediate definitive treatment. Copyright © 2014 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cumulative risk assessment lessons learned: a review of case studies and issue papers.

PubMed

Gallagher, Sarah S; Rice, Glenn E; Scarano, Louis J; Teuschler, Linda K; Bollweg, George; Martin, Lawrence

2015-02-01

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) examine potential risks posed by exposure to multiple and sometimes disparate environmental stressors. CRAs are more resource intensive than single chemical assessments, and pose additional challenges and sources of uncertainty. CRAs may examine the impact of several factors on risk, including exposure magnitude and timing, chemical mixture composition, as well as physical, biological, or psychosocial stressors. CRAs are meant to increase the relevance of risk assessments, providing decision makers with information based on real world exposure scenarios that improve the characterization of actual risks and hazards. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has evaluated a number of CRAs, performed by or commissioned for the Agency, to seek insight into CRA concepts, methods, and lessons learned. In this article, ten case studies and five issue papers on key CRA topics are examined and a set of lessons learned are identified for CRA implementation. The lessons address the iterative nature of CRAs, importance of considering vulnerability, need for stakeholder engagement, value of a tiered approach, new methods to assess multiroute exposures to chemical mixtures, and the impact of geographical scale on approach and purpose. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Knowledge, attitude and practices of women in maldives related to the risk factors, prevention and early detection of cervical cancer.

PubMed

Basu, Partha; Hassan, Salma; Fileeshia, Fathmath; Mohamed, Sizna; Nahoodha, Aminath; Shiuna, Aminath; Sulaiman, Asma Ibrahim; Najeeb, Nazeera; Saleem, Fathmath Jeehan

2014-01-01

A population-based cervical cancer screening program using visual inspection with acetic acid was launched in Maldives in 2014. Our study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitude and practices of women in relation to risk factors of cervical cancer, early detection of the disease and its prevention. The questionnaire based survey was conducted among 20 to 50 year old women, systematically sampled to represent three regions of Maldives. Trained investigators interviewed a total of 2,845 women at home. The prevalence of the risk factors of cervical cancer like early age at marriage and childbirth, multiple marriages, multiple marriages of the husbands, and multiple pregnancies was high. More women knew about breast cancer than cervical cancer. Even among the small number of women who knew of cervical cancer, only 34.6% had the knowledge of at least one early symptom. Very few women knew that the cancer could be prevented by any test. Only 6.2% of the women reported having ever undergone a Pap smear. Many women had the misconception that cervical cancer was infectious. In Maldives the younger women have high literacy rate due to the policy of universal free education and those with higher levels of education had improved knowledge of cervical cancer and its risk factors. The prevalence of risk factors also reduced with improved literacy. Awareness about risk factors and prevention of cervical cancer is limited among Maldivian women in spite of having high exposure to some of the risk factors. A universal literacy program in the country has helped to improve the knowledge of cervical cancer prevention and to reduce the exposure to various risk factors in the younger population.

Development of good modelling practice for phsiologically based pharmacokinetic models for use in risk assessment: The first steps

EPA Science Inventory

The increasing use of tissue dosimetry estimated using pharmacokinetic models in chemical risk assessments in multiple countries necessitates the need to develop internationally recognized good modelling practices. These practices would facilitate sharing of models and model eva...

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

Toward the Development of Integrative Risk-Adjusted Measures of Quality Using Large Clinical Data Bases: The Case of Anesthesia Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Steven T.

1992-01-01

The concept of risk-adjusted measures of quality is discussed, and a methodology is proposed for risk-adjusting and integrating multiple adverse outcomes of anesthesia services into measures for quality assurance and quality improvement programs. Although designed for a new anesthesiology database, the methods should apply to other health…

Risk of falls in older people during fast-walking--the TASCOG study.

PubMed

Callisaya, M L; Blizzard, L; McGinley, J L; Srikanth, V K

2012-07-01

To investigate the relationship between fast-walking and falls in older people. Individuals aged 60-86 years were randomly selected from the electoral roll (n=176). Gait speed, step length, cadence and a walk ratio were recorded during preferred- and fast-walking using an instrumented walkway. Falls were recorded prospectively over 12 months. Log multinomial regression was used to estimate the relative risk of single and multiple falls associated with gait variables during fast-walking and change between preferred- and fast-walking. Covariates included age, sex, mood, physical activity, sensorimotor and cognitive measures. The risk of multiple falls was increased for those with a smaller walk ratio (shorter steps, faster cadence) during fast-walking (RR 0.92, CI 0.87, 0.97) and greater reduction in the walk ratio (smaller increase in step length, larger increase in cadence) when changing to fast-walking (RR 0.73, CI 0.63, 0.85). These gait patterns were associated with poorer physiological and cognitive function (p<0.05). A higher risk of multiple falls was also seen for those in the fastest quarter of gait speed (p=0.01) at fast-walking. A trend for better reaction time, balance, memory and physical activity for higher categories of gait speed was stronger for fallers than non-fallers (p<0.05). Tests of fast-walking may be useful in identifying older individuals at risk of multiple falls. There may be two distinct groups at risk--the frail person with short shuffling steps, and the healthy person exposed to greater risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

PubMed

Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

2014-03-01

To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Predicting the outcome in severe injuries: an analysis of 2069 patients from the trauma register of the German Society of Traumatology (DGU)].

PubMed

Rixen, D; Raum, M; Bouillon, B; Schlosser, L E; Neugebauer, E

2001-03-01

On hospital admission numerous variables are documented from multiple trauma patients. The value of these variables to predict outcome are discussed controversially. The aim was the ability to initially determine the probability of death of multiple trauma patients. Thus, a multivariate probability model was developed based on data obtained from the trauma registry of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Unfallchirurgie (DGU). On hospital admission the DGU trauma registry collects more than 30 variables prospectively. In the first step of analysis those variables were selected, that were assumed to be clinical predictors for outcome from literature. In a second step a univariate analysis of these variables was performed. For all primary variables with univariate significance in outcome prediction a multivariate logistic regression was performed in the third step and a multivariate prognostic model was developed. 2069 patients from 20 hospitals were prospectively included in the trauma registry from 01.01.1993-31.12.1997 (age 39 +/- 19 years; 70.0% males; ISS 22 +/- 13; 18.6% lethality). From more than 30 initially documented variables, the age, the GCS, the ISS, the base excess (BE) and the prothrombin time were the most important prognostic factors to predict the probability of death (P(death)). The following prognostic model was developed: P(death) = 1/1 + e(-[k + beta 1(age) + beta 2(GCS) + beta 3(ISS) + beta 4(BE) + beta 5(prothrombin time)]) where: k = -0.1551, beta 1 = 0.0438 with p < 0.0001, beta 2 = -0.2067 with p < 0.0001, beta 3 = 0.0252 with p = 0.0071, beta 4 = -0.0840 with p < 0.0001 and beta 5 = -0.0359 with p < 0.0001. Each of the five variables contributed significantly to the multifactorial model. These data show that the age, GCS, ISS, base excess and prothrombin time are potentially important predictors to initially identify multiple trauma patients with a high risk of lethality. With the base excess and prothrombin time value, as only variables of this multifactorial model that can be therapeutically influenced, it might be possible to better guide early and aggressive therapy.

The contribution of parenting practices and parent emotion factors in children at risk for disruptive behavior disorders.

PubMed

Duncombe, Melissa E; Havighurst, Sophie S; Holland, Kerry A; Frankling, Emma J

2012-10-01

The goal of this study was to examine the impact of different parenting characteristics on child disruptive behavior and emotional regulation among a sample of at-risk children. The sample consisted of 373 Australian 5- to 9-year-old children who were screened for serious behavior problems. Seven parenting variables based on self-report were evaluated, involving parenting practices, emotion beliefs and behaviors, emotion expressiveness, and mental health. Outcome variables based on parent/teacher report were child disruptive behavior problems and emotion regulatory ability. When entered simultaneously in a multiple regression analysis, inconsistent discipline, negative parental emotional expressiveness, and parent mental health demonstrated the strongest relationship to disruptive behavior problems and problems with emotion regulation. The data presented here elucidate multiple risk pathways to disruptive behavior disorders and can inform the design of prevention and early intervention programs.

A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

PubMed

Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

2014-05-01

Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk-adapted approach. Therapeutic study, level IV. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Prenatal cigarette smoke exposure and early initiation of multiple substance use.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, Lidush; Cornelius, Marie D; Day, Nancy L

2012-06-01

Earlier studies have shown a relation between prenatal cigarette smoke exposure (PCSE) and offspring initiation of tobacco use. No prior study has examined the association between PCSE and early initiation of multiple substances (EIMS) including marijuana and alcohol in addition to tobacco. We investigated the association between PCSE and multiple substance use during adolescence. Pregnant women attending an urban prenatal clinic were selected to participate in the prospective longitudinal study based on their substance use. This study is based on the 16-year follow-up phase and consists of 579 mother-offspring dyads. The women were of lower socioeconomic status, 54% were Black, and 53% reported smoking cigarettes. 52% of the offspring were female. EIMS is a measure of the number of substances initiated prior to age 16 by the adolescents; it ranged from 0 (no initiation, N = 166) to 3 (all, N = 162). Adolescents exposed to tobacco during first trimester of gestation were 1.4 times more likely to initiate multiple substances by age 16 than the nonexposed group. PCSE was a significant predictor of EIMS after controlling for other prenatal exposures, home environment, and demographic characteristics, using ordinal polytomous logistic regression. Other risk factors of EIMS were maternal and adolescent depression, less strict and less involved parenting, offspring attention problems, and lack of participation in a youth club. There is a significant relation between PCSE and adolescent's EIMS.

Multiple violence victimisation associated with sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours in Swedish youth.

PubMed

Blom, Helena; Högberg, Ulf; Olofsson, Niclas; Danielsson, Ingela

2016-01-01

To address the associations between emotional, physical and sexual violence, specifically multiple violence victimisation, and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours in youth, as well as possible gender differences. A cross-sectional population-based survey among sexually experienced youth using a questionnaire with validated questions on emotional, physical, and sexual violence victimisation, sociodemographics, health risk behaviours, and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours. Proportions, unadjusted/adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The participants comprised 1192 female and 1021 male students aged 15 to 22 years. The females had experienced multiple violence (victimisation with two or three types of violence) more often than the males (21% vs. 16%). The associations between multiple violence victimisation and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours were consistent for both genders. Experience of/involvement in pregnancy yielded adjusted ORs of 2.4 (95% CI 1.5-3.7) for females and 2.1 (95% CI 1.3-3.4) for males, and early age at first intercourse 2.2 (95% CI 1.6-3.1) for females and 1.9 (95% CI 1.2-3.0) for males. No significantly raised adjusted ORs were found for non-use of contraceptives in young men or young women, or for chlamydia infection in young men. Several types of sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours are strongly associated with multiple violence victimisation in both genders. This should be taken into consideration when counselling young people and addressing their sexual and reproductive health.

European multiple sclerosis risk variants in the south Asian population.

PubMed

Pandit, Lekha; Ban, Maria; Beecham, Ashley Harris; McCauley, Jacob L; Sawcer, Stephen; D'Cunha, Anitha; Malli, Chaitra; Malik, Omar

2016-10-01

In less than a decade, genomewide association studies have identified over 100 single-nucleotide variants that are associated with increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis. However, since these studies have focused almost exclusively on European populations, it is unclear what role these variants might play in determining risk in other ethnic groups. To assess the effects of European multiple sclerosis-associated risk variants in the south Asian population. Using a combination of chip-based genotyping and next-generation sequencing, we have assessed 109 European-associated variants in a total of 270 cases and 555 controls from the south Asian population. We found that two-thirds of the tested variants (72/109) showed over representation of the European risk allele in south Asian cases (p < 0.0003). In the rest of the Immunochip array, the most associated variant was rs7318477 which maps close to TNFSF13B, the gene for the B-cell-related protein BAFF. Our data indicate substantial overlap in genetic risk architecture between Europeans and south Asians and suggest that the aetiology of the disease may be largely independent of ethnicity. © The Author(s), 2016.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

A 24-Week Multi-Modality Exercise Program Improves Executive Control in Older Adults with a Self-Reported Cognitive Complaint: Evidence from the Antisaccade Task.

PubMed

Heath, Matthew; Shellington, Erin; Titheridge, Sam; Gill, Dawn P; Petrella, Robert J

2017-01-01

Exercise programs involving aerobic and resistance training (i.e., multiple-modality) have shown promise in improving cognition and executive control in older adults at risk, or experiencing, cognitive decline. It is, however, unclear whether cognitive training within a multiple-modality program elicits an additive benefit to executive/cognitive processes. This is an important question to resolve in order to identify optimal training programs that delay, or ameliorate, executive deficits in persons at risk for further cognitive decline. In the present study, individuals with a self-reported cognitive complaint (SCC) participated in a 24-week multiple-modality (i.e., the M2 group) exercise intervention program. In addition, a separate group of individuals with a SCC completed the same aerobic and resistance training as the M2 group but also completed a cognitive-based stepping task (i.e., multiple-modality, mind-motor intervention: M4 group). Notably, pre- and post-intervention executive control was examined via the antisaccade task (i.e., eye movement mirror-symmetrical to a target). Antisaccades are an ideal tool for the study of individuals with subtle executive deficits because of its hands- and language-free nature and because the task's neural mechanisms are linked to neuropathology in cognitive decline (i.e., prefrontal cortex). Results showed that M2 and M4 group antisaccade reaction times reliably decreased from pre- to post-intervention and the magnitude of the decrease was consistent across groups. Thus, multi-modality exercise training improved executive performance in persons with a SCC independent of mind-motor training. Accordingly, we propose that multiple-modality training provides a sufficient intervention to improve executive control in persons with a SCC.

Posterior cranial base natural growth and development: A systematic review.

PubMed

Currie, Kris; Sawchuk, Dena; Saltaji, Humam; Oh, Heesoo; Flores-Mir, Carlos; Lagravere, Manuel

2017-11-01

To provide a synthesis of the published studies evaluating the natural growth and development of the human posterior cranial base (S-Ba). The search was performed on MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and all EBM Reviews electronic databases. In addition, reference lists of the included studies were hand-searched. Articles were included if they analyzed posterior cranial-base growth in humans specifically. Study selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were completed in duplicate. A meta-analysis was not justified. Finally, 23 published studies were selected: 5 cross-sectional and 18 cohort studies. Articles were published between 1955 and 2015, and all were published in English. The sample sizes varied between 20 and 397 individuals and consisted of craniofacial measurements from either living or deceased human skulls. Validity of the measurements was not determined in any of the studies, while six papers reported some form of reliability assessment. All the articles included multiple time points within the same population or data from multiple age groups. Growth of S-Ba was generally agreed to be from spheno-occipital synchondrosis growth. Basion displaced downward and backward and sella turcica moved downward and backward during craniofacial growth. Timing of cessation of S-Ba growth was not conclusive due to limited identified evidence. Current evidence suggests that S-Ba is not totally stable, as its dimensions change throughout craniofacial growth and a minor dimensional change is observed even in late adulthood.

Multi Dimensional Honey Bee Foraging Algorithm Based on Optimal Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saritha, R.; Vinod Chandra, S. S.

2017-10-01

In this paper a new nature inspired algorithm is proposed based on natural foraging behavior of multi-dimensional honey bee colonies. This method handles issues that arise when food is shared from multiple sources by multiple swarms at multiple destinations. The self organizing nature of natural honey bee swarms in multiple colonies is based on the principle of energy consumption. Swarms of multiple colonies select a food source to optimally fulfill the requirements of its colonies. This is based on the energy requirement for transporting food between a source and destination. Minimum use of energy leads to maximizing profit in each colony. The mathematical model proposed here is based on this principle. This has been successfully evaluated by applying it on multi-objective transportation problem for optimizing cost and time. The algorithm optimizes the needs at each destination in linear time.

Exploring Student Perceptions of Self-Regulation as a Moderator for Successful Literacy Outcomes: A Multiple Case Study of Fourth-Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nellis, Theresa M.

2017-01-01

Self-regulation is a significant predictor of student academic performance, over those traditional measures of intelligence and socioeconomic status. The failure to develop these skills may produce students who are at a four-times greater risk of behavioral issues, school dropout, and poor academic performance. This multiple qualitative case study…

Smoldering multiple myeloma requiring treatment: time for a new definition?

PubMed Central

Stewart, A. Keith; Chanan-Khan, Asher; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Kyle, Robert A.; Fonseca, Rafael; Kapoor, Prashant; Bergsagel, P. Leif; McCurdy, Arleigh; Gertz, Morie A.; Lacy, Martha Q.; Lust, John A.; Russell, Stephen J.; Zeldenrust, Steven R.; Reeder, Craig; Roy, Vivek; Buadi, Francis; Dingli, David; Hayman, Suzanne R.; Leung, Nelson; Lin, Yi; Mikhael, Joseph; Kumar, Shaji K.

2013-01-01

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) bridges the gap between monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (a mostly premalignant disorder) and active multiple myeloma (MM). Until recently, no interventional study in patients with SMM showed improved overall survival (OS) with therapy as compared with observation. A report from the PETHEMA-GEM (Programa Español de Tratamientos en Hematologica) group described both fewer myeloma-related events and better OS among patients with high-risk SMM who were treated with lenalidomide and dexamethasone. This unique study prompted us to review current knowledge about SMM and address the following questions: (1) Are there patients currently defined as SMM who should be treated routinely? (2) Should the definitions of SMM and MM be reconsidered? (3) Has the time come when not treating is more dangerous than treating? (4) Could unintended medical harm result from overzealous intervention? Our conclusion is that those patients with the highest-risk SMM (extreme bone marrow plasmacytosis, extremely abnormal serum immunoglobulin free light chain ratio, and multiple bone lesions detected only by modern imaging) should be reclassified as active MM so that they can receive MM-appropriate therapy and the paradigm of careful observation for patients with SMM can be preserved. PMID:24144641

Reduced Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer With Raloxifene Among Women at Increased Coronary Risk

PubMed Central

Grady, Deborah; Cauley, Jane A.; Geiger, Mary Jane; Kornitzer, Marcel; Mosca, Lori; Collins, Peter; Wenger, Nanette K.; Song, Jingli; Mershon, John; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Background In the Raloxifene Use for The Heart trial, 10 101 postmenopausal women with coronary heart disease (CHD) or multiple CHD risk factors were randomly assigned to 60 mg/d raloxifene or to placebo and followed for a median of 5.6 years. Raloxifene, a selective estrogen receptor modulator, was found to reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer and vertebral fractures but not the risk of cardiovascular events. Here, we provide further details about breast cancer incidence by tumor characteristics, duration of treatment, and subgroup. Methods Reported breast cancer was adjudicated by an independent committee based on medical records and pathology reports. The primary analyses used Cox proportional hazards models with time to first breast cancer as the outcome. Subgroup effects were analyzed using similar models with terms for treatment by subgroup. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results As previously reported, raloxifene reduced the incidence of invasive breast cancer by 44% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.38 to 0.83; absolute risk reduction = 1.2 invasive breast cancers per 1000 women treated for 1 year). The lower incidence of invasive breast cancer reflected a 55% lower incidence of invasive estrogen receptor (ER)–positive tumors (HR = 0.45; 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.72). However, raloxifene treatment did not reduce the incidence of noninvasive breast cancer or of invasive ER-negative breast cancer. The reduced incidence of invasive breast cancer was similar across subgroups, including those defined by age, body mass index, family history of breast cancer, prior use of postmenopausal hormones, and 5-year estimated risk of invasive breast cancer. Conclusion Raloxifene reduces risk of invasive ER-positive breast cancer regardless of a woman's baseline breast cancer risk but does not reduce risk of noninvasive or ER-negative breast cancers. These results confirm those of the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation, a previous randomized trial among women with osteoporosis. PMID:18544744

[DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

PubMed

Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

Laplace Transform Based Radiative Transfer Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Lin, B.; Ng, T.; Yang, P.; Wiscombe, W.; Herath, J.; Duffy, D.

2006-12-01

Multiple scattering is the major uncertainty for data analysis of space-based lidar measurements. Until now, accurate quantitative lidar data analysis has been limited to very thin objects that are dominated by single scattering, where photons from the laser beam only scatter a single time with particles in the atmosphere before reaching the receiver, and simple linear relationship between physical property and lidar signal exists. In reality, multiple scattering is always a factor in space-based lidar measurement and it dominates space- based lidar returns from clouds, dust aerosols, vegetation canopy and phytoplankton. While multiple scattering are clear signals, the lack of a fast-enough lidar multiple scattering computation tool forces us to treat the signal as unwanted "noise" and use simple multiple scattering correction scheme to remove them. Such multiple scattering treatments waste the multiple scattering signals and may cause orders of magnitude errors in retrieved physical properties. Thus the lack of fast and accurate time-dependent radiative transfer tools significantly limits lidar remote sensing capabilities. Analyzing lidar multiple scattering signals requires fast and accurate time-dependent radiative transfer computations. Currently, multiple scattering is done with Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo simulations take minutes to hours and are too slow for interactive satellite data analysis processes and can only be used to help system / algorithm design and error assessment. We present an innovative physics approach to solve the time-dependent radiative transfer problem. The technique utilizes FPGA based reconfigurable computing hardware. The approach is as following, 1. Physics solution: Perform Laplace transform on the time and spatial dimensions and Fourier transform on the viewing azimuth dimension, and convert the radiative transfer differential equation solving into a fast matrix inversion problem. The majority of the radiative transfer computation goes to matrix inversion processes, FFT and inverse Laplace transforms. 2. Hardware solutions: Perform the well-defined matrix inversion, FFT and Laplace transforms on highly parallel, reconfigurable computing hardware. This physics-based computational tool leads to accurate quantitative analysis of space-based lidar signals and improves data quality of current lidar mission such as CALIPSO. This presentation will introduce the basic idea of this approach, preliminary results based on SRC's FPGA-based Mapstation, and how we may apply it to CALIPSO data analysis.

Study of the propensity for hemorrhage in Hispanic Americans with stroke.

PubMed

Frey, James L; Jahnke, Heidi K; Goslar, Pamela W

2008-01-01

Multiple sources document a higher proportion of intraparenchymal hemorrhage (HEM) in Hispanic (HIS) than white (WHI) patients with stroke. We sought an explanation for this phenomenon through analysis of multiple variables in our hospital-based stroke population. We performed univariate and multivariate analysis of risk factors in our HIS and WHI patients with stroke to identify differences that might account for a greater propensity for HEM in HIS patients. Multivariate analysis disclosed that the risk of HEM correlated significantly with untreated hypertension (HTN), HIS ethnicity, and heavy alcohol intake. A negative correlation was found for hyperlipidemia and diabetes. Our HIS patients with stroke had a greater prevalence of untreated HTN and heavy alcohol intake, with HIS men being at greatest risk. HIS patients with stroke in our hospital-based population appear relatively more prone to HEM than do WHI patients. This risk correlates with a greater likelihood of having untreated HTN and heavy alcohol intake, more so for HIS men. The explanation appears to be a relative lack of health awareness and involvement in our health care system. The possibility that HIS ethnicity itself constitutes a biological risk factor for HEM remains a matter of speculation. Validation of this work with community data should lead to remediation through a community-based effort.

Etiology of Pervasive versus Situational Antisocial Behaviors: A Multi-informant Longitudinal Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wertz, Jasmin; Zavos, Helena M. S.; Matthews, Timothy; Gray, Rebecca; Best-Lane, Janis; Pariante, Carmine M.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Arseneault, Louise

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to disentangle pervasive from situational antisocial behaviors using multiple informants, and to investigate their genetic and environmental etiologies in preadolescence and across time. Antisocial behaviors were assessed in 2,232 twins from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study at ages 5 and 12.…

Incident Detection of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus Infections in a Cohort of High-Risk Women Aged 25–65 Years

PubMed Central

Winer, Rachel L.; Hughes, James P.; Feng, Qinghua; Stern, Joshua E.; Xi, Long Fu; Koutsky, Laura A.

2016-01-01

Background. The risk of incident high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection associated with recent sexual behaviors is undefined in mid-adult women (defined as women aged 25–65 years). Methods. Triannually, 420 female online daters aged 25–65 years submitted vaginal specimens for HPV testing and completed health and sexual behavior questionnaires. The cumulative incidence of and risk factors for incident HR-HPV detection were estimated by Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Results. The 12-month cumulative incidence of HR-HPV detection was 25.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.3%–30.1%). Current hormonal contraceptive use was positively associated with incident HR-HPV detection. Lifetime number of male sex partners was also positively associated but only among women not recently sexually active with male partners. In analysis that adjusted for hormonal contraceptive use and marital status, women reporting multiple male partners or male partners who were new, casual, or had ≥1 concurrent partnership had a hazard of incident HR-HPV detection that was 2.81 times (95% CI, 1.38–5.69 times) that for women who reported no male sex partners in the past 6 months. Thus, among women with multiple male partners or male partners who were new, casual, or had ≥1 concurrent partnership, approximately 64% of incident HR-HPV infections were attributable to one of those partners. Conclusions. Among high-risk mid-adult women with recent new male partners, multiple male partners, or male partners who were casual or had ≥1 concurrent partnership, about two thirds of incident HR-HPV detections are likely new acquisitions, whereas about one third of cases are likely redetections of prior infections. PMID:27009602

Deficits in medio-lateral balance control and the implications for falls in individuals with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Morrison, S; Rynders, C A; Sosnoff, J J

2016-09-01

A major health concern faced by individuals with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is the heightened risk of falling. Reasons for this increased risk can often be traced back to declines in neurophysiological mechanisms underlying balance control and/or muscular strength. The aim of this study was to assess differences between persons with MS and age-matched healthy adults in regards to their falls risk, strength, reactions and directional control of balance. Twenty-two persons with multiple sclerosis (mean age 56.3±8.9 years) and 22 age-matched healthy adults (mean age 59.1±7.1 years) participated in the study. Assessments of falls risk, balance, fear of falling, lower limb strength, and reaction time were performed. Balance control was assessed under four conditions where the combined effects of vision (eyes open/closed) and standing surface (firm/pliable surface) were evaluated. Results demonstrated that, in comparison to healthy older adults, persons with MS had a significantly higher falls risk, slower reaction times, and weaker lower- limb strength. For balance, persons with MS exhibited greater overall COP motion in both the medio-lateral (ML) and anterior-posterior (AP) directions compared to older adults. Additionally, during more challenging balance conditions, persons from the MS group exhibited greater ML motion compared to sway in the AP direction. Overall, the results confirm that persons with MS are often at a heightened risk of falling, due to the multitude of neuromuscular changes brought about by this disease process. However, the increased ML sway for the MS group could reflect a decreased ability to control side-to-side motion in comparison to controlling AP sway. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Put the Family Back in Family Health History: A Multiple-Informant Approach.

PubMed

Lin, Jielu; Marcum, Christopher S; Myers, Melanie F; Koehly, Laura M

2017-05-01

An accurate family health history is essential for individual risk assessment. This study uses a multiple-informant approach to examine whether family members have consistent perceptions of shared familial risk for four common chronic conditions (heart disease, Type 2 diabetes, high cholesterol, and hypertension) and whether accounting for inconsistency in family health history reports leads to more accurate risk assessment. In 2012-2013, individual and family health histories were collected from 127 adult informants of 45 families in the Greater Cincinnati Area. Pedigrees were linked within each family to assess inter-informant (in)consistency regarding common biological family member's health history. An adjusted risk assessment based on pooled pedigrees of multiple informants was evaluated to determine whether it could more accurately identify individuals affected by common chronic conditions, using self-reported disease diagnoses as a validation criterion. Analysis was completed in 2015-2016. Inter-informant consistency in family health history reports was 54% for heart disease, 61% for Type 2 diabetes, 43% for high cholesterol, and 41% for hypertension. Compared with the unadjusted risk assessment, the adjusted risk assessment correctly identified an additional 7%-13% of the individuals who had been diagnosed, with a ≤2% increase in cases that were predicted to be at risk but had not been diagnosed. Considerable inconsistency exists in individual knowledge of their family health history. Accounting for such inconsistency can, nevertheless, lead to a more accurate genetic risk assessment tool. A multiple-informant approach is potentially powerful when coupled with technology to support clinical decisions. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dog ownership and the risk of cardiovascular disease and death - a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Mubanga, Mwenya; Byberg, Liisa; Nowak, Christoph; Egenvall, Agneta; Magnusson, Patrik K; Ingelsson, Erik; Fall, Tove

2017-11-17

Dogs may be beneficial in reducing cardiovascular risk in their owners by providing social support and motivation for physical activity. We aimed to investigate the association of dog ownership with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death in a register-based prospective nation-wide cohort (n = 3,432,153) with up to 12 years of follow-up. Self-reported health and lifestyle habits were available for 34,202 participants in the Swedish Twin Register. Time-to-event analyses with time-updated covariates were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In single- and multiple-person households, dog ownership (13.1%) was associated with lower risk of death, HR 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.69) and 0.89 (0.87-0.91), respectively; and CVD death, HR 0.64 (0.59-0.70), and 0.85 (0.81-0.90), respectively. In single-person households, dog ownership was inversely associated with cardiovascular outcomes (HR composite CVD 0.92, 95% CI, 0.89-0.94). Ownership of hunting breed dogs was associated with lowest risk of CVD. Further analysis in the Twin Register could not replicate the reduced risk of CVD or death but also gave no indication of confounding by disability, comorbidities or lifestyle factors. In conclusion, dog ownership appears to be associated with lower risk of CVD in single-person households and lower mortality in the general population.

Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

PubMed

Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

2018-02-01

Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Endometrial scratch injury before intrauterine insemination: is it time to re-evaluate its value? Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Vitagliano, Amerigo; Noventa, Marco; Saccone, Gabriele; Gizzo, Salvatore; Vitale, Salvatore Giovannni; Laganà, Antonio Simone; Litta, Pietro Salvatore; Saccardi, Carlo; Nardelli, Giovanni Battista; Di Spiezio Sardo, Attilio

2018-01-01

To assess the impact of endometrial scratch injury (ESI) on the outcomes of intrauterine insemination (IUI) stimulated cycles. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Not applicable. Infertile women undergoing one or more IUI stimulated cycles. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were identified by searching electronic databases. We included RCTs comparing ESI (i.e., intervention group) during the course of IUI stimulated cycle (C-ESI) or during the menstrual cycle preceding IUI treatment (P-ESI) with controls (no endometrial scratch). The summary measures were reported as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence-interval (CI). Clinical pregnancy rate, ongoing pregnancy rate, multiple pregnancy rate, ectopic pregnancy rate, miscarriage rate. Eight trials were included in the meta-analysis, comprising a total of 1,871 IUI cycles. Endometrial scratch injury was associated with a higher clinical pregnancy rate (OR 2.27) and ongoing pregnancy rate (OR 2.04) in comparison with the controls. No higher risk of multiple pregnancy (OR 1.09), miscarriage (OR 0.80), or ectopic pregnancy (OR 0.82) was observed in patients receiving ESI. Subgroup analysis based on ESI timing showed higher clinical pregnancy rate (OR 2.57) and ongoing pregnancy rate (OR 2.27) in patients receiving C-ESI and no advantage in patients receiving P-ESI. Available data suggest that ESI performed once, preferably during the follicular phase of the same cycle of IUI with flexible aspiration catheters, may improve clinical pregnancy and ongoing pregnancy rates in IUI cycles. Endometrial scratch injury does not appear to increase the risk of multiple pregnancy, miscarriage, or ectopic pregnancy. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in myocardial infarction rates and case fatality by anatomical location in four United States communities, 1987 to 2008 (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study).

PubMed

Newman, Jonathan D; Shimbo, Daichi; Baggett, Chris; Liu, Xiaoxi; Crow, Richard; Abraham, Joellyn M; Loehr, Laura R; Wruck, Lisa M; Folsom, Aaron R; Rosamond, Wayne D

2013-12-01

Although the incidence of and mortality after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is decreasing, time trends in anatomical location of STEMI and associated short-term prognosis have not been examined in a population-based community study. We determined 22-year trends in age- and race-adjusted gender-specific incidences and 28-day case fatality of hospitalized STEMI by anatomic infarct location among a stratified random sample of 35- to 74-year-old residents of 4 communities in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. STEMI infarct location was assessed by 12-lead electrocardiograms from the hospital record and was coded as anterior, inferior, lateral, and multilocation STEMIs using the Minnesota code. From 1987 to 2008, a total of 4,845 patients had an incident STEMI; 37.2% were inferior STEMI, 32.8% were anterior, 16.8% occurred in multiple infarct locations, and 13.2% were lateral STEMI. For inferior, anterior, and lateral STEMIs in both men and women, significant decreases were observed in the age-adjusted annual incidence and the associated 28-day case fatality. In contrast, for STEMI in multiple infarct locations, neither the annual incidence nor the 28-day case fatality changed over time. The age- and race-adjusted annual incidence and associated 28-day case fatality of STEMI in anterior, inferior, and lateral infarct locations decreased during 22 years of surveillance; however, no decrease was observed for STEMI in multiple infarct locations. In conclusion, our findings suggest that there is room for improvement in the care of patients with multilocation STEMI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

Early adversity and risk for moderate to severe unipolar depressive disorder in adolescence and adulthood: A register-based study of 978,647 individuals.

PubMed

Dahl, Signe Kirk; Larsen, Janne Tidselbak; Petersen, Liselotte; Ubbesen, Mads Bonde; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Musliner, Katherine Louise

2017-05-01

Early adversity is a known risk factor for unipolar depression. We examined the impact of 9 types of early adversity on risk for moderate to severe unipolar depression in adolescence or adulthood, and evaluated whether these effects were moderated by gender and adversity timing. We conducted a prospective, population-based cohort study using Danish national registers. The sample included all individuals born in Denmark between 1980 and 1998 (N=978,647). Exposure to early adversity was assessed from ages 0-15. Types of adversity included parental illness, incarceration, death, disability, and psychiatric diagnosis; family disruption; out-of-home care; and childhood abuse. Individuals were followed from age 15 until first in- or outpatient depression diagnosis (ICD-10 codes F32, F33) in a psychiatric hospital, death, emigration, or December 31st, 2013, whichever came first. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox regressions. All adversities were significantly associated with increased risk for moderate to severe adolescent/adult depression (HR range: 1.30-2.72), although the effects were attenuated after mutual adjustment (adjusted HR range: 1.06-1.70). None of the effects were moderated by gender. The effect of family disruption was strongest between ages 0-4 (HR=1.66, 95% CI=1.61-1.71), while the effect of out-of-home care was strongest between ages 10-14 (HR=2.45, 95% CI=2.28-2.64). Untreated and primary-care treated depression were not measured. Our results support past findings that multiple types of early adversity increase risk for moderate to severe unipolar depression in adolescence and adulthood. Certain adversities may be more harmful if they occur during specific developmental time periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A longitudinal study of the reciprocal relationship between ever smoking and urgency in early adolescence.

PubMed

Burris, Jessica L; Riley, Elizabeth; Puleo, Gabriella E; Smith, Gregory T

2017-09-01

Among early adolescents in the United States (U.S.), the prevalence of cigarette smoking is at its lowest level in recent decades. Nonetheless, given the risks of smoking in early development, it remains critically important to study both risk factors for smoking and risks from smoking. This longitudinal study with U.S. early adolescents examines smoking initiation and tests a model of reciprocal prediction between ever smoking and the personality trait of urgency (i.e., mood-based impulsivity), a trait that increases risk for multiple forms of dysfunction. Participants (n=1906; 90% 10-11 years old, 50% female, 39% racial minorities at baseline) completed questionnaires 1-2 times per year starting in 5th grade and ending in 9th grade. Structural equation modeling allowed tests of bidirectional relationships between ever smoking and urgency controlling for pubertal status and negative affect at each wave. Incidence of ever smoking increased from 5% to 27% over time, with current smoking around 5% at the last wave. Urgency at each wave predicted ever smoking at the next wave above and beyond covariates and prior smoking (all p<0.01). Likewise, with one exception, ever smoking predicted an increase in urgency at the subsequent wave above and beyond covariates and prior urgency (all p<0.05). Results show that risk for smoking increases with higher levels of urgency and urgency increases secondary to engagement in smoking. Future work should therefore explore urgency as a point of prevention for smoking and smoking cessation as a means to mitigate mood-based impulsivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Immersed boundary lattice Boltzmann model based on multiple relaxation times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jianhua; Han, Haifeng; Shi, Baochang; Guo, Zhaoli

2012-01-01

As an alterative version of the lattice Boltzmann models, the multiple relaxation time (MRT) lattice Boltzmann model introduces much less numerical boundary slip than the single relaxation time (SRT) lattice Boltzmann model if some special relationship between the relaxation time parameters is chosen. On the other hand, most current versions of the immersed boundary lattice Boltzmann method, which was first introduced by Feng and improved by many other authors, suffer from numerical boundary slip as has been investigated by Le and Zhang. To reduce such a numerical boundary slip, an immerse boundary lattice Boltzmann model based on multiple relaxation times is proposed in this paper. A special formula is given between two relaxation time parameters in the model. A rigorous analysis and the numerical experiments carried out show that the numerical boundary slip reduces dramatically by using the present model compared to the single-relaxation-time-based model.

Association of influenza vaccination and reduced risk of stroke hospitalization among the elderly: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Lin, Hui-Chen; Chiu, Hui-Fen; Ho, Shu-Chen; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2014-04-02

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of influenza vaccination (and annual revaccination) on the risk of stroke admissions. We conducted a population-based case-control study in Taiwan. Cases consisted of patients >65 years of age who had a first-time diagnosis of stroke during the influenza seasons from 2006 to 2009. Controls were selected by matching age, sex, and index date to cases. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Ever vaccinated individuals in the current vaccination season were associated with a reduced risk of ischemic stroke admissions (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.60-0.97). Compared with individuals never vaccinated against influenza during the past 5 years, the adjusted ORs were 0.92 (95% CI = 0.68-1.23) for the group with 1 or 2 vaccinations, 0.73 (95% CI = 0.54-1.00) for the group with 3 or 4 vaccinations, and 0.56 (95% CI = 0.38-0.83) for the group with 5 vaccinations. There was a significant trend of decreasing risk of ischemic stroke admissions with an increasing number of vaccinations. This study provides evidence that vaccination against influenza may reduce the risk of hospitalization for ischemic stroke and that annual revaccination provides greater protection.

Assessment of human health impact from exposure to multiple air pollutants in China based on satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tao; Wang, Wen; Ciren, Pubu; Zhu, Yan

2016-10-01

Assessment of human health impact caused by air pollution is crucial for evaluating environmental hazards. In this paper, concentrations of six air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO) were first derived from satellite observations, and then the overall human health risks in China caused by multiple air pollutants were assessed using an aggregated health risks index. Unlike traditional approach for human health risks assessment, which relied on the in-situ air pollution measurements, the spatial distribution of aggregated human health risks in China were obtained using satellite observations in this research. It was indicated that the remote sensing data have advantages over in-situ data in accessing human health impact caused by air pollution.

Design of a randomized controlled trial for multiple cancer risk behaviors among Spanish-speaking Mexican-origin smokers.

PubMed

Castro, Yessenia; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Fernandez, Maria E; Strong, Larkin L; Eakin, Elizabeth G; Resnicow, Ken; Li, Yisheng; Wetter, David W

2013-03-18

Smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity account for as much as 60% of cancer risk. Latinos experience profound disparities in health behaviors, as well as the cancers associated with them. Currently, there is a dearth of controlled trials addressing these health behaviors among Latinos. Further, to the best of our knowledge, no studies address all three behaviors simultaneously, are culturally sensitive, and are guided by formative work with the target population. Latinos represent 14% of the U.S. population and are the fastest growing minority group in the country. Efforts to intervene on these important lifestyle factors among Latinos may accelerate the elimination of cancer-related health disparities. The proposed study will evaluate the efficacy of an evidence-based and theoretically-driven Motivation And Problem Solving (MAPS) intervention, adapted and culturally-tailored for reducing cancer risk related to smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity among high-risk Mexican-origin smokers who are overweight/obese (n = 400). Participants will be randomly assigned to one of two groups: Health Education (HE) or MAPS (HE + up to 18 MAPS counseling calls over 18 months). Primary outcomes are smoking status, servings of fruits and vegetables, and both self-reported and objectively measured physical activity. Outcome assessments will occur at baseline, 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months. The current study will contribute to a very limited evidence base on multiple risk factor intervention studies on Mexican-origin individuals and has the potential to inform both future research and practice related to reducing cancer risk disparities. An effective program targeting multiple cancer risk behaviors modeled after chronic care programs has the potential to make a large public health impact because of the dearth of evidence-based interventions for Latinos and the extended period of support that is provided in such a program. National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials Registry # NCT01504919.

The Committed Intimate Partnerships of Incarcerated African-American Men: Implications for Sexual HIV Transmission Risk and Prevention Opportunities.

PubMed

Khan, Maria R; El-Bassel, Nabila; Golin, Carol E; Scheidell, Joy D; Adimora, Adaora A; Coatsworth, Ashley M; Hu, Hui; Judon-Monk, Selena; Medina, Katie P; Wohl, David A

2017-10-01

Incarceration is thought to influence HIV transmission by disrupting partnerships that provide support and protect against sex risk-taking. Current correctional facility-based family-strengthening programs focus on marital partnerships, a minority of inmates' partnerships. Research on the sex partnerships of incarcerated African-American men and the types of partnerships most likely to protect against HIV-related sex risk is limited. Improved understanding can inform expansion of correctional facility-based family-strengthening programs to a greater proportion of protective partnerships and HIV risk reduction programs to partnerships vulnerable to sex risk. Project DISRUPT is a cohort study of African-American men being released from prison in North Carolina who were in committed heterosexual partnerships at prison entry. Using baseline survey data (N = 189), we conducted latent class analysis (LCA) to identify subgroups of participants with distinct relationship profiles and measured associations between relationship characteristics and multiple partnerships of inmates and their partners in the six months before incarceration. LCA indicated a two-class solution, with relationships distinguished by satisfaction/stability (satisfied/stable class: 58.0%; dissatisfied/unstable class: 42.0%); each class had comparable relationship length and levels of marriage and cohabitation. Dissatisfied/unstable relationships were associated with multiple partnerships among participants (AOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.50, 5.72) and partners (AOR 4.95, 95% CI 1.68, 14.58). Satisfaction indicators-versus length, marriage, or cohabitation-were the strongest independent correlates of inmates' and partners' multiple partnerships. Pre-incarceration economic deprivation, mental disorder symptoms, substance use, and violence in relationships were associated with dissatisfaction/instability. Prison-based programs designed to maintain healthy partnerships, strengthen relationship skills, and reduce HIV risk-taking and violence in relationships are warranted and should be targeted to both marital and nonmarital partnerships. Programming also should address the poverty, mental illness, and substance use factors that threaten relationship satisfaction/stability and increase HIV risk.

New technologies and approaches in toxicity testing and risk assessment (ESOT)

EPA Science Inventory

The release of the National Research Council’s Report “Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy” in 2007 initiated a broad-based movement in the toxicology community to re-think how toxicity testing and risk assessment are performed. Multiple efforts in the ...

Taking a Risk to Develop Reflective Skills in Business Practitioners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackay, Margaret; Tymon, Alex

2016-01-01

Critical reflection can support alternative decision-making in business practice. This paper examines the effectiveness of a risk-based pedagogy to engage practitioners in reflective thinking. Educators adopting a radical pedagogy in professionally accredited programmes face multiple challenges: learners often resist the process of self-reflection…

Service provision and quality outcomes in home health for rural Medicare beneficiaries at high risk for unplanned care.

PubMed

Mroz, Tracy M; Andrilla, C Holly A; Garberson, Lisa A; Skillman, Susan M; Patterson, Davis G; Larson, Eric H

2018-06-11

Multiple barriers exist to providing home health care in rural areas. This study examined relationships between service provision and quality outcomes among rural, fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who received home health care between 2011 and 2013 for conditions associated with high-risk for unplanned care. More skilled nursing visits, visits by more types of providers, more timely care, and shorter lengths of stay were associated with significantly higher odds of hospital readmission and emergency department use and significantly lower odds of community discharge. Results may indicate unmeasured clinical severity and care needs among this population. Additional research regarding the accuracy of current severity measures and adequacy of case-mix adjustment for quality metrics is warranted, especially given the continued focus on value-based payment policies.

A Stochastic Model of Space Radiation Transport as a Tool in the Development of Time-Dependent Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Nounu, Hatem N.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

A new computer model, the GCR Event-based Risk Model code (GERMcode), was developed to describe biophysical events from high-energy protons and heavy ions that have been studied at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) [1] for the purpose of simulating space radiation biological effects. In the GERMcode, the biophysical description of the passage of heavy ions in tissue and shielding materials is made with a stochastic approach that includes both ion track structure and nuclear interactions. The GERMcode accounts for the major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering, and knockout-cascade processes by using the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) model [2]. The QMSFRG model has been shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections

Neural network disturbance observer-based distributed finite-time formation tracking control for multiple unmanned helicopters.

PubMed

Wang, Dandan; Zong, Qun; Tian, Bailing; Shao, Shikai; Zhang, Xiuyun; Zhao, Xinyi

2018-02-01

The distributed finite-time formation tracking control problem for multiple unmanned helicopters is investigated in this paper. The control object is to maintain the positions of follower helicopters in formation with external interferences. The helicopter model is divided into a second order outer-loop subsystem and a second order inner-loop subsystem based on multiple-time scale features. Using radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) technique, we first propose a novel finite-time multivariable neural network disturbance observer (FMNNDO) to estimate the external disturbance and model uncertainty, where the neural network (NN) approximation errors can be dynamically compensated by adaptive law. Next, based on FMNNDO, a distributed finite-time formation tracking controller and a finite-time attitude tracking controller are designed using the nonsingular fast terminal sliding mode (NFTSM) method. In order to estimate the second derivative of the virtual desired attitude signal, a novel finite-time sliding mode integral filter is designed. Finally, Lyapunov analysis and multiple-time scale principle ensure the realization of control goal in finite-time. The effectiveness of the proposed FMNNDO and controllers are then verified by numerical simulations. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the marginal effect of regular drug use on multiple sclerosis in the Iranian population.

PubMed

Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Schuster, Tibor

2018-01-01

There are only few reports regarding the role of lifetime drug or substance use in multiple sclerosis (MS) etiology. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of drug or substance exposure on the onset of MS diagnosis. We conducted a population-based incident case control study in Tehran. Cases (n = 547) were 15-50 years old persons with MS identified from the Iranian Multiple Sclerosis Society (IMSS) register during August 7, 2013, and November 17, 2015. Population-based controls (n = 1057) were 15-50 years old and were recruited by random digit telephone dialing. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighing (IPTW) using two sets of propensity scores (PSs) was used to estimate marginal incidence odds ratios (ORs) for MS contrasting pre-specified substance use. The estimated marginal OR was 6.03 (95% confidence interval: 3.54;10.3, using trimmed weights at the 95th percentile of the stabilized weight distribution) in both IPTW analyses comparing lifetime substance use (opioids, cannabis, inhalants, hallucinogens and stimulants) for at least one time monthly during a six-months or longer period vs. no such history of drug use. Subject to limitation of causal claims based on case-control studies, this study suggests that monthly drug or substance use for a period of at least six consecutive months, may increase the risk of MS by factor 3.5 or higher.

Macronutrients, vitamins and minerals intake and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a case-control study in Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although Iran is a high-risk region for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), dietary factors that may contribute to this high incidence have not been thoroughly studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of macronutrients, vitamins and minerals on the risk of ESCC. Methods In this hospital-based case-control study, 47 cases with incident ESCC and 96 controls were interviewed and usual dietary intakes were collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Data were modeled through unconditional multiple logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), controlling for age, sex, gastrointestinal reflux, body mass index, smoking history (status, intensity and duration), physical activity, and education. Results ESCC cases consumed significantly more hot foods and beverages and fried and barbecued meals, compared to the controls (p < 0.05). After adjusting for potential confounders, the risk of ESCC increased significantly in the highest tertiles of saturated fat [OR:2.88,95%CI:1.15-3.08], cholesterol [OR:1.53, 95%CI: 1.41-4.13], discretionary calorie [OR:1.51, 95%CI: 1.06-3.84], sodium [OR:1.49,95%CI:1.12-2.89] and total fat intakes [OR:1.48, 95%CI:1.09-3.04]. In contrast, being in the highest tertile of carbohydrate, dietary fiber and (n-3) fatty acid intake reduced the ESCC risk by 78%, 71% and 68%, respectively. The most cancer-protective effect was observed for the combination of high folate and vitamin E intakes (OR: 0.02, 95%CI: 0.00-0.87; p < 0.001). Controls consumed 623.5 times higher selenium, 5.48 times as much β-carotene and 1.98 times as much α-tocopherol as the amount ESCC cases consumed. Conclusion This study suggests that high intake of nutrients primarily found in plant-based foods is associated with a reduced esophageal cancer risk. Some nutrients such as folate, vitamin E and selenium might play major roles in the etiology of ESCC and their status may eventually be used as an epidemiological marker for esophageal cancer in Iran, and perhaps other high-risk regions. PMID:22185224

Anthropometric Measures at Multiple Times Throughout Life and Prostate Cancer Diagnosis, Metastasis, and Death.

PubMed

Gerdtsson, Axel; Poon, Jessica B; Thorek, Daniel L; Mucci, Lorelei A; Evans, Michael J; Scardino, Peter; Abrahamsson, Per-Anders; Nilsson, Peter; Manjer, Jonas; Bjartell, Anders; Malm, Johan; Vickers, Andrew; Freedland, Stephen J; Lilja, Hans; Ulmert, David

2015-12-01

Previous studies of prostate cancer (PCa) risk and anthropometrics (ie, body measurements) were based on single measurements or obtained over limited time spans. To study the association between anthropometrics measured at multiple time points in life and their relation to later diagnosis, metastasis, or death from PCa. This case-control study includes 27 167 Swedish men enrolled in two population-based projects from 1974 to 1996. PCa diagnosis up to December 31, 2006, disease information, gestation time, and anthropometrics at birth, military conscript testing, and adulthood were collected. A total of 1355 PCa cases were matched with 5271 controls. Univariate conditional logistic regression was used to determine whether clinical diagnosis, metastasis, or PCa death was associated with low birth weight (weight <2500 g); with small size for gestational age; or with weight, length, or body mass index (BMI) at birth, adolescence (aged 16-22 yr), or early middle age (aged 44-50 yr). Apart from weight at adolescence, which was associated with an increased risk of PCa diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] per 5 kg: 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.09; p=0.026), preadulthood measurements were not associated with any PCa end point. Adulthood parameters were not associated with diagnosis. In contrast, weight and BMI at early middle age were significantly associated with metastasis (OR per 5 kg: 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.20; p<0.0001, and OR: 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05-1.14; p<0.0001) and death (OR per 5 kg: 1.11 (95% CI, 1.03-1.19; p=0.005, and OR: 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13; p=0.003), respectively. It remains unclear whether these results apply to men of nonwhite origin, to populations with active PCa screening programs, or to countries without socialized health care. The analyses of these large data sets demonstrate that significant effects of body characteristics (with links to metabolic syndrome) measured at early middle age are associated with PCa disease severity, metastatic progression, and outcome. Conversely, measurements at birth and adolescence are not associated with PCa prevalence or outcome. Increased weight and body mass index in adults is associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer metastasis and death. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of a pretest strategy for physical therapist assistant programs to predict success rate on the national physical therapy exam.

PubMed

Sloas, Stacey B; Keith, Becky; Whitehead, Malcolm T

2013-01-01

This study investigated a pretest strategy that identified physical therapist assistant (PTA) students who were at risk of failure on the National Physical Therapy Examination (NPTE). Program assessment data from five cohorts of PTA students (2005-2009) were used to develop a stepwise multiple regression formula that predicted first-time NPTE licensure scores. Data used included the Nelson-Denny Reading Test, grades from eight core courses, grade point average upon admission to the program, and scores from three mock NPTE exams given during the program. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the 15 variables and NPTE scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed using data collected at the ends of the first, second, and third (final) semesters of the program. Data from the class of 2010 were then used to validate the formula. The end-of-program formula accounted for the greatest variance (57%) in predicted scores. Those students scoring below a predicted scaled score of 620 were identified to be at risk of failure of the licensure exam. These students were counseled, and a remedial plan was developed based on regression predictions prior to them sitting for the licensure exam.

Informed decision-making in elective major vascular surgery: analysis of 145 surgeon-patient consultations.

PubMed

Etchells, Edward; Ferrari, Michel; Kiss, Alex; Martyn, Nikki; Zinman, Deborah; Levinson, Wendy

2011-06-01

Prior studies show significant gaps in the informed decision-making process, a central goal of surgical care. These studies have been limited by their focus on low-risk decisions, single visits rather than entire consultations, or both. Our objectives were, first, to rate informed decision-making for major elective vascular surgery based on audiotapes of actual physician-patient conversations and, second, to compare ratings of informed decision-making for first visits to ratings for multiple visits by the same patient over time. We prospectively enrolled patients for whom vascular surgical treatment was a potential option at a tertiary care outpatient vascular surgery clinic. We audio-taped all surgeon-patient conversations, including multiple visits when necessary, until a decision was made. Using an existing method, we evaluated the transcripts for elements of decision-making, including basic elements (e.g., an explanation of the clinical condition), intermediate elements (e.g., risks and benefits) and complex elements (e.g., uncertainty around the decision). We analyzed 145 surgeon-patient consultations. Overall, 45% of consultations contained complex elements, whereas 23% did not contain the basic elements of decision-making. For the 67 consultations that involved multiple visits, ratings were significantly higher when evaluating all visits (50% complex elements) compared with evaluating only the first visit (33% complex elements, p < 0.001.) We found that 45% of consultations contained complex elements, which is higher than prior studies with similar methods. Analyzing decision-making over multiple visits yielded different results than analyzing decision-making for single visits.

Genotype-Based Association Mapping of Complex Diseases: Gene-Environment Interactions with Multiple Genetic Markers and Measurement Error in Environmental Exposures

PubMed Central

Lobach, Irvna; Fan, Ruzone; Carroll, Raymond T.

2011-01-01

With the advent of dense single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, population-based association studies have become the major tools for identifying human disease genes and for fine gene mapping of complex traits. We develop a genotype-based approach for association analysis of case-control studies of gene-environment interactions in the case when environmental factors are measured with error and genotype data are available on multiple genetic markers. To directly use the observed genotype data, we propose two genotype-based models: genotype effect and additive effect models. Our approach offers several advantages. First, the proposed risk functions can directly incorporate the observed genotype data while modeling the linkage disequihbrium information in the regression coefficients, thus eliminating the need to infer haplotype phase. Compared with the haplotype-based approach, an estimating procedure based on the proposed methods can be much simpler and significantly faster. In addition, there is no potential risk due to haplotype phase estimation. Further, by fitting the proposed models, it is possible to analyze the risk alleles/variants of complex diseases, including their dominant or additive effects. To model measurement error, we adopt the pseudo-likelihood method by Lobach et al. [2008]. Performance of the proposed method is examined using simulation experiments. An application of our method is illustrated using a population-based case-control study of association between calcium intake with the risk of colorectal adenoma development. PMID:21031455

Psychosocial, behavioral, and cultural predictors of sexual risk for HIV infection among Latino men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Jarama, S Lisbeth; Kennamer, J David; Poppen, Paul J; Hendricks, Michael; Bradford, Judith

2005-12-01

This study sought to replicate and extend an investigation by Diaz et al. (1999) on determinants of HIV risk among Latino gay and bisexual men living in San Francisco who were predominantly English-speaking. Compared to the Diaz et al. study, the current study sample consisted of predominantly Spanish-speaking MSM, who resided outside of HIV/AIDS epicenters and whose countries of origin were primarily Central & South American. The relationships of unprotected anal sex and multiple sexual partners with demographic, developmental, behavioral, cultural and psychosocial variables were examined. Data were collected in a convenience sample of 250 participants (primarily immigrants from El Salvador) residing in Virginia. Most men in the sample had more than one sexual partner in the last 3 months (62%) and more than a third had unprotected anal sex with a casual partner in the same time period. Communication about HIV, sexual attraction, machismo, and experiences of discrimination based on homosexual behavior were predictive of HIV risk behaviors. The findings support an integrative approach to investigating HIV risk among Latino MSM. Implications for prevention programs are discussed.

Predicting influent biochemical oxygen demand: Balancing energy demand and risk management.

PubMed

Zhu, Jun-Jie; Kang, Lulu; Anderson, Paul R

2018-01-01

Ready access to comprehensive influent information can help water reclamation plant (WRP) operators implement better real-time process controls, provide operational reliability and reduce energy consumption. The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD 5 ), a critical parameter for WRP process control, is expensive and difficult to measure using hard-sensors. An alternative approach based on a soft-sensor methodology shows promise, but can be problematic when used to predict high BOD 5 values. Underestimating high BOD 5 concentrations for process control could result in an insufficient amount of aeration, increasing the risk of an effluent violation. To address this issue, we tested a hierarchical hybrid soft-sensor approach involving multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks (ANN), and compromise programming. While this hybrid approach results in a slight decrease in overall prediction accuracy relative to the approach based on ANN only, the underestimation percentage is substantially lower (37% vs. 61%) for predictions of carbonaceous BOD 5 (CBOD 5 ) concentrations higher than the long-term average value. The hybrid approach is also flexible and can be adjusted depending on the relative importance between energy savings and managing the risk of an effluent violation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are youth mentoring programs good value-for-money? An evaluation of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Melbourne Program.

PubMed

Moodie, Marjory L; Fisher, Jane

2009-01-30

The Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) program matches vulnerable young people with a trained, supervised adult volunteer as mentor. The young people are typically seriously disadvantaged, with multiple psychosocial problems. Threshold analysis was undertaken to determine whether investment in the program was a worthwhile use of limited public funds. The potential cost savings were based on US estimates of life-time costs associated with high-risk youth who drop out-of-school and become adult criminals. The intervention was modelled for children aged 10-14 years residing in Melbourne in 2004. If the program serviced 2,208 of the most vulnerable young people, it would cost AUD 39.5 M. Assuming 50% were high-risk, the associated costs of their adult criminality would be AUD 3.3 billion. To break even, the program would need to avert high-risk behaviours in only 1.3% (14/1,104) of participants. This indicative evaluation suggests that the BBBS program represents excellent 'value for money'.

Mesh-Based Entry Vehicle and Explosive Debris Re-Contact Probability Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPherson, Mark A.; Mendeck, Gavin F.

2011-01-01

The risk to a crewed vehicle arising from potential re-contact with fragments from an explosive breakup of any jettisoned spacecraft segments during entry has long sought to be quantified. However, great difficulty lies in efficiently capturing the potential locations of each fragment and their collective threat to the vehicle. The method presented in this paper addresses this problem by using a stochastic approach that discretizes simulated debris pieces into volumetric cells, and then assesses strike probabilities accordingly. Combining spatial debris density and relative velocity between the debris and the entry vehicle, the strike probability can be calculated from the integral of the debris flux inside each cell over time. Using this technique it is possible to assess the risk to an entry vehicle along an entire trajectory as it separates from the jettisoned segment. By decoupling the fragment trajectories from that of the entry vehicle, multiple potential separation maneuvers can then be evaluated rapidly to provide an assessment of the best strategy to mitigate the re-contact risk.

Drug exposure in pregnant women.

PubMed

Czeizel, A E

2004-01-01

The objectives of this paper are to describe the Hungarian case-control surveillance system of congenital abnormalities (HCCSCA), to summarize the principles of this activity and our main experiences. Among the main principles, the importance of the time factor (the first trimester concept is outdated), the differentiation of isolated and multiple manifestations of the seemingly same congenital abnormalities, noxa specificity, the separation of drugs and pregnancy supplements within medicinal products (or medicines) are stressed. After some methodological problems (recall bias, chance effect), the main experiences regarding the risk and benefit of medicines are summarized. The conclusion is that the results of our studies based on the data set of the HCCSCA showed that at present the exaggerated teratogenic risk of drugs is much more harmful for the fetus than the real teratogenic effect of some drugs themselves. Medical doctors and other experts therefore need more education to know the principles and findings of modern human teratology because it may help us to have a better balance between the risk and benefit of drug use during pregnancy.

Evaluation of volumetric modulated arc therapy for cranial radiosurgery using multiple noncoplanar arcs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Audet, Chantal; Poffenbarger, Brett A.; Chang, Pauling

2011-11-15

Purpose: To evaluate a commercial volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), using multiple noncoplanar arcs, for linac-based cranial radiosurgery, as well as evaluate the combined accuracy of the VMAT dose calculations and delivery. Methods: Twelve patients with cranial lesions of variable size (0.1-29 cc) and two multiple metastases patients were planned (Eclipse RapidArc AAA algorithm, v8.6.15) using VMAT (1-6 noncoplanar arcs), dynamic conformal arc (DCA, {approx}4 arcs), and IMRT (nine static fields). All plans were evaluated according to a conformity index (CI), healthy brain tissue doses and volumes, and the dose to organs at risk. A 2D dose distribution was measuredmore » (Varian Novalis Tx, HD120 MLC, 1000 MU/min, 6 MV beam) for the {approx}4 arc VMAT treatment plans using calibrated film dosimetry. Results: The CI (0-1 best) average for all plans was best for {approx}4 noncoplanar arc VMAT at 0.86 compared with {approx}0.78 for IMRT and a single arc VMAT and 0.68 for DCA. The volumes of healthy brain receiving 50% of the prescribed target coverage dose or more (V{sub 50%}) were lowest for the four arc VMAT [RA(4)] and DCA plans. The average ratio of the V{sub 50%} for the other plans to the RA(4) V{sub 50%} were 1.9 for a single noncoplanar arc VMAT [RA(1nc)], 1.4 for single full coplanar arc VMAT [RA(1f)] and 1.3 for IMRT. The V{sub 50%} improved significantly for single isocenter multiple metastases plan when two noncoplanar VMAT arcs were added to a full single coplanar one. The maximum dose to 5 cc of the outer 1 cm rim of healthy brain which one may want to keep below nonconsequential doses of 300-400 cGy, was 2-3 times greater for IMRT, RA(1nc) and RA(1f) plans compared with the multiple noncoplanar arc DCA and RA(4) techniques. Organs at risk near (0-4 mm) to targets were best spared by (i) single noncoplanar arcs when the targets are lateral to the organ at risk and (ii) by skewed nonvertical planes of IMRT fields when the targets are not lateral to the organ at risk. The highest dose gradient observed between an organ at risk and a target at the edge of a VMAT arc plane or plane of IMRT fields was 17%/mm. The average absolute percent difference between the measured and calculated central axis dose for all the VMAT plans was 3.6 {+-} 2.2%. The measured perpendicular profile widths and shifts were on average within 0.5 mm of planned values. The average total MUs for VMAT plans was double the DCA average and similar to the IMRT average. Conclusions: For the aforementioned planning and delivery system and cranial lesions greater than 7 mm in diameter, multiple noncoplanar arc VMAT consistently provides accurate and high quality cranial radiosurgery dose distributions with low doses to healthy brain tissue and high dose conformity to the target. These qualities may make multiple noncoplanar arc VMAT suitable for a greater range of prescription doses or larger and more irregular lesions. For smaller and/or rounder lesions there are other clinically acceptable treatment techniques that may involve fewer couch angles or arcs and reduce treatment times.« less

On cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution.

PubMed Central

Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

1994-01-01

The usefulness of data from various sources for a cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution is discussed. Considering the irreversibility of initiations, a multiplicative model is preferred for solid tumors. As has been concluded for exposure to ionizing radiation, the multiplicative model, in comparison with the additive model, predicts a relatively larger number of cases at high ages, with enhanced underestimation of risks by short follow-up times in disease-epidemiological studies. For related reasons, the extrapolation of risk from animal tests on the basis of daily absorbed dose per kilogram body weight or per square meter surface area without considering differences in life span may lead to an underestimation, and agreements with epidemiologically determined values may be fortuitous. Considering these possibilities, the most likely lifetime risks of cancer death at the average exposure levels in Sweden were estimated for certain pollution fractions or indicator compounds in urban air. The risks amount to approximately 50 deaths per 100,000 for inhaled particulate organic material (POM), with a contribution from ingested POM about three times larger, and alkenes, and butadiene cause 20 deaths, respectively, per 100,000 individuals. Also, benzene and formaldehyde are expected to be associated with considerable risk increments. Comparative potency methods were applied for POM and alkenes. Due to incompleteness of the list of compounds considered and the uncertainties of the above estimates, the total risk calculation from urban air has not been attempted here. PMID:7821292

Design of inventory pools in spare part support operation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Daniel Y.; Tseng, Mitchell M.; Cheung, Raymond K.

2014-06-01

The objective of a spare part support operation is to fulfill the part request order with different service contracts in the agreed response time. With this objective to achieve different service targets for multiple service contracts and the considerations of inventory investment, it is not only important to determine the inventory policy but also to design the structure of inventory pools and the order fulfilment strategies. In this research, we focused on two types of inventory pools: multiple inventory pool (MIP) and consolidated inventory pool (CIP). The idea of MIP is to maintain separated inventory pools based on the types of service contract, while CIP solely maintains a single inventory pool regardless of service contract. Our research aims to design the inventory pool analytically and propose reserve strategies to manage the order fulfilment risks in CIP. Mathematical models and simulation experiments would be applied for analysis and evaluation.

[Current immunotherapy of multiple sclerosis].

PubMed

Paul, F; Ruprecht, K

2015-08-01

Following the introduction of interferon beta 1b as the first immunomodulatory therapy for multiple sclerosis (MS) in 1993, there are currently nine substances or substance classes approved for the treatment of MS (i.e. alemtuzumab, azathioprine, dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, glatiramer acetate, interferon beta, mitoxantrone, natalizumab and teriflunomide). Major developments during the last 5 years include the approval of orally administered medications (i.e. fingolimod, teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate), a monoclonal antibody (alemtuzumab), as well as glatiramer acetate with an administration frequency three times a week and a pegylated formulation of interferon beta 1a. The broadened therapeutic options enable a more differentiated and individualized therapy of MS; however, evidence-based data for therapeutic decision-making relevant in clinical practice are not always available. Rare but potentially severe and even life-threatening side effects of immunotherapies for MS require continuous pharmacovigilance and adherence to risk management plans.

Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

PubMed

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

PubMed Central

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

The Availability and Utility of Services to Address Risk Factors for Recidivism among Justice-Involved Veterans

PubMed Central

Blonigen, Daniel M.; Rodriguez, Allison L.; Manfredi, Luisa; Britt, Jessica; Nevedal, Andrea; Finlay, Andrea K.; Rosenthal, Joel; Smelson, David; Timko, Christine

2016-01-01

The availability and utility of services to address recidivism risk factors among justice-involved veterans is unknown. We explored these issues through qualitative interviews with 63 Specialists from the Department of Veterans Affairs’ (VA) Veterans Justice Programs. To guide the interviews, we utilized the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model of offender rehabilitation. Specialists reported that justice-involved veterans generally have access to services to address most RNR-based risk factors (substance abuse; lack of positive school/work involvement; family/marital dysfunction; lack of prosocial activities/interests), but have less access to services targeting risk factors of antisocial tendencies and associates and empirically-based treatments for recidivism in VA. Peer-based services, motivational interviewing/cognitive-behavioral therapy, and Veterans Treatment Courts were perceived as useful to address multiple risk factors. These findings highlight potential gaps in provision of evidence-based care to address recidivism among justice-involved veterans, as well as promising policy-based solutions that may have widespread impact on reducing recidivism in this population. PMID:26924887

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Gene expression profiling in multiple myeloma--reporting of entities, risk, and targets in clinical routine.

PubMed

Meissner, Tobias; Seckinger, Anja; Rème, Thierry; Hielscher, Thomas; Möhler, Thomas; Neben, Kai; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Klein, Bernard; Hose, Dirk

2011-12-01

Multiple myeloma is an incurable malignant plasma cell disease characterized by survival ranging from several months to more than 15 years. Assessment of risk and underlying molecular heterogeneity can be excellently done by gene expression profiling (GEP), but its way into clinical routine is hampered by the lack of an appropriate reporting tool and the integration with other prognostic factors into a single "meta" risk stratification. The GEP-report (GEP-R) was built as an open-source software developed in R for gene expression reporting in clinical practice using Affymetrix microarrays. GEP-R processes new samples by applying a documentation-by-value strategy to the raw data to be able to assign thresholds and grouping algorithms defined on a reference cohort of 262 patients with multiple myeloma. Furthermore, we integrated expression-based and conventional prognostic factors within one risk stratification (HM-metascore). The GEP-R comprises (i) quality control, (ii) sample identity control, (iii) biologic classification, (iv) risk stratification, and (v) assessment of target genes. The resulting HM-metascore is defined as the sum over the weighted factors gene expression-based risk-assessment (UAMS-, IFM-score), proliferation, International Staging System (ISS) stage, t(4;14), and expression of prognostic target genes (AURKA, IGF1R) for which clinical grade inhibitors exist. The HM-score delineates three significantly different groups of 13.1%, 72.1%, and 14.7% of patients with a 6-year survival rate of 89.3%, 60.6%, and 18.6%, respectively. GEP reporting allows prospective assessment of risk and target gene expression and integration of current prognostic factors in clinical routine, being customizable about novel parameters or other cancer entities. ©2011 AACR.

Learning disabilities and intellectual functioning in school-aged children with prenatal cocaine exposure.

PubMed

Morrow, Connie E; Culbertson, Jan L; Accornero, Veronica H; Xue, Lihua; Anthony, James C; Bandstra, Emmalee S

2006-01-01

Risk for developing a learning disability (LD) or impaired intellectual functioning by age 7 was assessed in full-term children with prenatal cocaine exposure drawn from a cohort of 476 children born full term and enrolled prospectively at birth. Intellectual functioning was assessed using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Third Edition (Wechsler, 1991) short form, and academic functioning was assessed using the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test (WIAT; Wechsler, 1993) Screener by examiners blind to exposure status. LDs were categorized based on ability-achievement discrepancy scores, using the regression-based predicted achievement method described in the WIAT manual. The sample in this report included 409 children (212 cocaine-exposed, 197 non-cocaine-exposed) from the birth cohort with available data. Cumulative incidence proportions and relative risk values were estimated using STATA software (Statacorp, 2003). No differences were found in the estimate of relative risk for impaired intellectual functioning (IQ below 70) between children with and without prenatal cocaine exposure (estimated relative risk = .95; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.65, 1.39; p = .79). The cocaine-exposed children had 2.8 times greater risk of developing a LD by age 7 than non-cocaine-exposed children (95% CI = 1.05, 7.67; p = .038; IQ >/= 70 cutoff). Results remained stable with adjustment for multiple child and caregiver covariates, suggesting that children with prenatal cocaine exposure are at increased risk for developing a learning disability by age 7 when compared to their non-cocaine-exposed peers.

Learning Disabilities and Intellectual Functioning in School-Aged Children With Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

PubMed Central

Morrow, Connie E.; Culbertson, Jan L.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

2009-01-01

Risk for developing a learning disability (LD) or impaired intellectual functioning by age 7 was assessed in full-term children with prenatal cocaine exposure drawn from a cohort of 476 children born full term and enrolled prospectively at birth. Intellectual functioning was assessed using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children–Third Edition (Wechsler,1991) shortform, and academic functioning was assessed using the Wechsler Individual Achievement Test (WIAT; Wechsler,1993) Screener by examiners blind to exposure status. LDs were categorized based on ability-achievement discrepancy scores, using the regression-based predicted achievement method described in the WIAT manual. The sample in this report included 409 children (212 cocaine-exposed, 197 non-cocaine-exposed) from the birth cohort with available data. Cumulative incidence proportions and relative risk values were estimated using STATA software (Statacorp, 2003). No differences were found in the estimate of relative risk for impaired intellectual functioning (IQ below 70) between children with and without prenatal cocaine exposure (estimated relative risk = .95;95%confidence interval [CI] = 0.65,1.39; p = .79). The cocaine-exposed children had 2.8 times greater risk of developing a LD by age 7 than non-cocaine-exposed children (95%CI = 1.05,7.67; p = .038; IQ ≥ 70 cutoff). Results remained stable with adjustment for multiple child and care-giver covariates, suggesting that children with prenatal cocaine exposure are at increased risk for developing a learning disability by age 7 when compared to their non-cocaine-exposed peers. PMID:17083299

Behavior and Attention Problems in Eight-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Opiate and Poly-Substance Exposure: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Slinning, Kari; Moe, Vibeke; Walhovd, Kristine B.

2016-01-01

Multiple studies have found that children born to mothers with opioid or poly-substance use during pregnancy have more behavior and attention problems and lower cognitive functioning than non-exposed children. The present study aimed to investigate whether behavior and attention problems are more prominent than general cognitive deficits in this risk group and whether the problems wane or increase over time. This prospective longitudinal cross-informant study compared 72 children who were prenatally exposed to heroin and multiple drugs with a group of 58 children without known prenatal risk factors. Group differences in caregivers’ and teachers’ reports of the children’s behavior and attention problems based on the Child Behavior Check List and the ADHD Rating Scale were compared based on group differences in general cognitive functioning at 4 ½ and 8 ½ years of age. Both parent and teacher reports suggest that the exposed group has significantly more problems in several behavioral areas than the comparison group, particularly with regard to attention problems. The preschool teachers had already reported these problems when the children were 4 ½ years old, whereas the caregivers reported these problems mainly when the children were 8 ½ years old. The group differences in behavioral and attentional problems were not significantly greater and some were even significantly smaller than the group differences in general cognitive abilities. These findings suggest that children subject to prenatally drug exposure have increasing problems in multiple areas related to behavior from preschool age to 8 ½ years but that these problems do not seem to be specific; i.e., they are not more severe than the problems with general cognitive abilities found for this group. PMID:27336798

Absence of multiplicative interactions between occupational lung carcinogens and tobacco smoking: a systematic review involving asbestos, crystalline silica and diesel engine exhaust emissions.

PubMed

El Zoghbi, Mohamad; Salameh, Pascale; Stücker, Isabelle; Brochard, Patrick; Delva, Fleur; Lacourt, Aude

2017-02-02

Tobacco smoking is the main cause of lung cancer, but it is not the sole causal factor. Significant proportions of workers are smokers and exposed to occupational lung carcinogens. This study aims to systematically review the statistical interaction between occupational lung carcinogens and tobacco smoking, in particular asbestos, crystalline silica and diesel engine exhaust emissions. Articles were identified using Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science, and were limited to those published in English or French, without limitation of time. The reference list of selected studies was reviewed to identify other relevant papers. One reviewer selected the articles based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Two reviewers checked the eligibility of articles to be included in the systematic review. Data were extracted by one reviewer and revised by two other reviewers. Cohorts and case-control studies were analyzed separately. The risk of bias was evaluated for each study based on the outcome. The results of the interaction between the tobacco smoking and each carcinogen was evaluated and reported separately. Fifteen original studies were included for asbestos-smoking interaction, seven for silica-smoking interaction and two for diesel-smoking interaction. The results suggested the absence of multiplicative interaction between the three occupational lung carcinogens and smoking. There is no enough evidence from the literature to conclude for the additive interaction. We believe there is a limited risk of publication bias as several studies reporting negative results were published. There are no multiplicative interactions between tobacco smoking and occupational lung carcinogens, in particular asbestos, crystalline silica and diesel engine exhaust emissions. Even though, specific programs should be developed and promoted to reduce concomitantly the exposure to occupational lung carcinogens and tobacco smoking.

Behavior and Attention Problems in Eight-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Opiate and Poly-Substance Exposure: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Nygaard, Egil; Slinning, Kari; Moe, Vibeke; Walhovd, Kristine B

2016-01-01

Multiple studies have found that children born to mothers with opioid or poly-substance use during pregnancy have more behavior and attention problems and lower cognitive functioning than non-exposed children. The present study aimed to investigate whether behavior and attention problems are more prominent than general cognitive deficits in this risk group and whether the problems wane or increase over time. This prospective longitudinal cross-informant study compared 72 children who were prenatally exposed to heroin and multiple drugs with a group of 58 children without known prenatal risk factors. Group differences in caregivers' and teachers' reports of the children's behavior and attention problems based on the Child Behavior Check List and the ADHD Rating Scale were compared based on group differences in general cognitive functioning at 4 ½ and 8 ½ years of age. Both parent and teacher reports suggest that the exposed group has significantly more problems in several behavioral areas than the comparison group, particularly with regard to attention problems. The preschool teachers had already reported these problems when the children were 4 ½ years old, whereas the caregivers reported these problems mainly when the children were 8 ½ years old. The group differences in behavioral and attentional problems were not significantly greater and some were even significantly smaller than the group differences in general cognitive abilities. These findings suggest that children subject to prenatally drug exposure have increasing problems in multiple areas related to behavior from preschool age to 8 ½ years but that these problems do not seem to be specific; i.e., they are not more severe than the problems with general cognitive abilities found for this group.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less computation power. The authors have used this approach for risk assessment towards identification of effectiveness-profitability of risk mitigation measures, using optimization model for resource allocation. Based on the error-computation trade-off, 62-earthquake scenarios are chosen to be used for this purpose.

"An integrative formal model of motivation and decision making: The MGPM*": Correction to Ballard et al. (2016).

PubMed

2017-02-01

Reports an error in "An integrative formal model of motivation and decision making: The MGPM*" by Timothy Ballard, Gillian Yeo, Shayne Loft, Jeffrey B. Vancouver and Andrew Neal ( Journal of Applied Psychology , 2016[Sep], Vol 101[9], 1240-1265). Equation A3 contained an error. This correct equation is provided in the erratum. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-28692-001.) We develop and test an integrative formal model of motivation and decision making. The model, referred to as the extended multiple-goal pursuit model (MGPM*), is an integration of the multiple-goal pursuit model (Vancouver, Weinhardt, & Schmidt, 2010) and decision field theory (Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993). Simulations of the model generated predictions regarding the effects of goal type (approach vs. avoidance), risk, and time sensitivity on prioritization. We tested these predictions in an experiment in which participants pursued different combinations of approach and avoidance goals under different levels of risk. The empirical results were consistent with the predictions of the MGPM*. Specifically, participants pursuing 1 approach and 1 avoidance goal shifted priority from the approach to the avoidance goal over time. Among participants pursuing 2 approach goals, those with low time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the larger discrepancy, whereas those with high time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Participants pursuing 2 avoidance goals generally prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Finally, all of these effects became weaker as the level of risk increased. We used quantitative model comparison to show that the MGPM* explained the data better than the original multiple-goal pursuit model, and that the major extensions from the original model were justified. The MGPM* represents a step forward in the development of a general theory of decision making during multiple-goal pursuit. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

[Epidemiological surveillance of syphilis in the city of Valencia. Impact and evolution of the period 2003-2014].

PubMed

Casanova, Ana Pagà; Guaita Calatrava, Rosana; Soriano Llinares, Laura; Miguez Santiyán, Ana; Salazar Cifre, Antonio

2016-07-01

In Spain syphilis shows an increasing trend from last decade and multiple papers reported an increasing of exposed population. Our aim was to describe the evolution of the incident of the syphilis in the geographical frame of the city of Valencia, to identify the characteristics and practices of risk of the affected ones. A classic design of vigilance of public health was applied, longitudinal retrospective study. Geographical area: the city of Valencia. January 2003-December 2014. age and sex, national origin, dates of access to the sanitary system, date of diagnosis, clinical forms of presentation, conducts of risk, and practices of risk. The annual impact of the disease evolved from 2.4 × 10(5) in 2004 up to 14.5 × 10(5) in 2014. Males (82.96%) masculinity rate: 4.8. Major specific incidence took places on age-groups 35-39 years with 16.49 × 10(5) and 40-44 years with 16.98 × 10(5). The difference between women stands out according to origin: middle ages in autochthonous (39.72 years) opposite to foreigners (32.91 years); P = .004. The primary forms were 5 times more probable in males. The major factor of risk was to have multiple couples (54.89%), man-to-man homo or bisexuals reaches 90.0% of it. The HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection was 29.07% in males and 4.35% in women. Precedent of multiple couple relations would not be a minor of 42 times more likely among the homosexual population with syphilis. Major determinant of risk were the relations with multiple pairs and the prevention will have to be focused to the group of men who practice sex with men. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Maternity experiences of mothers with multiple disadvantages in England: A qualitative study.

PubMed

McLeish, Jenny; Redshaw, Maggie

2018-06-14

Disadvantaged mothers and their babies are at increased risk of poor perinatal outcomes and have less positive experiences of maternity care. To explore the maternity care experiences of mothers with multiple disadvantages. A qualitative descriptive study based on semi-structured interviews with 40 mothers with multiple disadvantages, using thematic analysis. Four themes emerged: 'A confusing and frightening time', 'Longing to be respected as an individual', 'The importance of choice and control', and 'Needing trust to feel safe'. Mothers brought feelings of powerlessness and low self-esteem to their encounters with maternity professionals, which could be significantly worsened by disrespectful care. They needed support to navigate the complex maternity system. Positive experiences were much more likely where the mother had received continuity of care from a specialist midwife or small team. Mothers with multiple disadvantages value being treated as an individual, making informed choices, and feeling safe, but they may lack the confidence to ask questions or challenge disrespectful treatment. Training and supervision should enable maternity professionals to understand how confusing maternity care can be to very disadvantaged mothers. It should emphasise the need to provide accessible and empowering information and guidance to enable all mothers to make choices and understand the system. Leaders of maternity services need to do more to challenge negative staff attitudes and ensure that that all mothers are treated at all times with kindness, respect and dignity. Specialist midwives can deliver a high quality service to mothers experiencing multiple disadvantages. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Layered clustering multi-fault diagnosis for hydraulic piston pump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jun; Wang, Shaoping; Zhang, Haiyan

2013-04-01

Efficient diagnosis is very important for improving reliability and performance of aircraft hydraulic piston pump, and it is one of the key technologies in prognostic and health management system. In practice, due to harsh working environment and heavy working loads, multiple faults of an aircraft hydraulic pump may occur simultaneously after long time operations. However, most existing diagnosis methods can only distinguish pump faults that occur individually. Therefore, new method needs to be developed to realize effective diagnosis of simultaneous multiple faults on aircraft hydraulic pump. In this paper, a new method based on the layered clustering algorithm is proposed to diagnose multiple faults of an aircraft hydraulic pump that occur simultaneously. The intensive failure mechanism analyses of the five main types of faults are carried out, and based on these analyses the optimal combination and layout of diagnostic sensors is attained. The three layered diagnosis reasoning engine is designed according to the faults' risk priority number and the characteristics of different fault feature extraction methods. The most serious failures are first distinguished with the individual signal processing. To the desultory faults, i.e., swash plate eccentricity and incremental clearance increases between piston and slipper, the clustering diagnosis algorithm based on the statistical average relative power difference (ARPD) is proposed. By effectively enhancing the fault features of these two faults, the ARPDs calculated from vibration signals are employed to complete the hypothesis testing. The ARPDs of the different faults follow different probability distributions. Compared with the classical fast Fourier transform-based spectrum diagnosis method, the experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can diagnose the multiple faults, which occur synchronously, with higher precision and reliability.

Effect of child marriage on girls' school dropout in Nepal: Analysis of data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014

PubMed Central

Sekine, Kazutaka; Hodgkin, Marian Ellen

2017-01-01

School dropout and child marriage are interrelated outcomes that have an enormous impact on adolescent girls. However, the literature reveals gaps in the empirical evidence on the link between child marriage and the dropout of girls from school. This study identifies the ‘tipping point’ school grades in Nepal when the risk of dropout due to marriage is highest, measures the effect of child marriage on girls’ school dropout rates, and assesses associated risk factors. Weighted percentages were calculated to examine the grades at highest risk and the distribution of reasons for discontinuing school. Using the Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2014 data, we estimated the effect of marriage on school attendance and dropout among girls aged 15–17 by constructing logistic regression models. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors of school dropout due to child marriage. It was found that early marriage is the most common reason given for leaving school. Overall, the risk of school dropout due to marriage heightens after girls complete the fifth or sixth grade. The risk of girls’ dropping out peaks in the seventh and eighth grades and remains noteworthy in the ninth and tenth grades. Married girls in Nepal are 10 times more likely to drop out than their unmarried peers. Little or no education of the household head, belonging to the Kirat religion, and membership of a traditionally disadvantaged social class each elevate the risk of school dropout due to early marriage. The findings underscore the need to delay girl’s marriage so as to reduce girls’ school dropout in Nepal. School-based programmes aimed at preventing child marriage should target girls from the fifth grade because they are at increased risk of dropping out, as well as prioritizing girls from disadvantaged groups. PMID:28727793

Effect of child marriage on girls' school dropout in Nepal: Analysis of data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2014.

PubMed

Sekine, Kazutaka; Hodgkin, Marian Ellen

2017-01-01

School dropout and child marriage are interrelated outcomes that have an enormous impact on adolescent girls. However, the literature reveals gaps in the empirical evidence on the link between child marriage and the dropout of girls from school. This study identifies the 'tipping point' school grades in Nepal when the risk of dropout due to marriage is highest, measures the effect of child marriage on girls' school dropout rates, and assesses associated risk factors. Weighted percentages were calculated to examine the grades at highest risk and the distribution of reasons for discontinuing school. Using the Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2014 data, we estimated the effect of marriage on school attendance and dropout among girls aged 15-17 by constructing logistic regression models. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors of school dropout due to child marriage. It was found that early marriage is the most common reason given for leaving school. Overall, the risk of school dropout due to marriage heightens after girls complete the fifth or sixth grade. The risk of girls' dropping out peaks in the seventh and eighth grades and remains noteworthy in the ninth and tenth grades. Married girls in Nepal are 10 times more likely to drop out than their unmarried peers. Little or no education of the household head, belonging to the Kirat religion, and membership of a traditionally disadvantaged social class each elevate the risk of school dropout due to early marriage. The findings underscore the need to delay girl's marriage so as to reduce girls' school dropout in Nepal. School-based programmes aimed at preventing child marriage should target girls from the fifth grade because they are at increased risk of dropping out, as well as prioritizing girls from disadvantaged groups.

A Microstructure-Based Time-Dependent Crack Growth Model for Life and Reliability Prediction of Turbopropulsion Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Kwai S.; Enright, Michael P.; Moody, Jonathan; Fitch, Simeon H. K.

2014-01-01

The objective of this investigation was to develop an innovative methodology for life and reliability prediction of hot-section components in advanced turbopropulsion systems. A set of generic microstructure-based time-dependent crack growth (TDCG) models was developed and used to assess the sources of material variability due to microstructure and material parameters such as grain size, activation energy, and crack growth threshold for TDCG. A comparison of model predictions and experimental data obtained in air and in vacuum suggests that oxidation is responsible for higher crack growth rates at high temperatures, low frequencies, and long dwell times, but oxidation can also induce higher crack growth thresholds (Δ K th or K th) under certain conditions. Using the enhanced risk analysis tool and material constants calibrated to IN 718 data, the effect of TDCG on the risk of fracture in turboengine components was demonstrated for a generic rotor design and a realistic mission profile using the DARWIN® probabilistic life-prediction code. The results of this investigation confirmed that TDCG and cycle-dependent crack growth in IN 718 can be treated by a simple summation of the crack increments over a mission. For the temperatures considered, TDCG in IN 718 can be considered as a K-controlled or a diffusion-controlled oxidation-induced degradation process. This methodology provides a pathway for evaluating microstructural effects on multiple damage modes in hot-section components.

Prediction of HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors among Disadvantaged African American Adults using a Syndemic Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

Nehl, Eric J.; Klein, Hugh; Sterk, Claire E.; Elifson, Kirk W.

2015-01-01

The focus of this paper is on HIV sexual risk taking among a community-based sample of disadvantaged African American adults. The objective is to examine multiple factors associated with sexual HIV risk behaviors within a syndemic conceptual framework. Face-to-face, computer-assisted, structured interviews were conducted with 1,535 individuals in Atlanta, Georgia. Bivariate analyses indicated a high level of relationships among the HIV sexual risks and other factors. Results from multivariate models indicated that gender, sexual orientation, relationship status, self-esteem, condom use self-efficacy, sex while the respondent was high, and sex while the partner was high were significant predictors of condomless sex. Additionally, a multivariate additive model of risk behaviors indicated that the number of health risks significantly increased the risk of condomless sex. This intersection of HIV sexual risk behaviors and their associations with various other behavioral, socio-demographics, and psychological functioning factors helps explain HIV risk-taking among this sample of African American adults and highlights the need for research and practice that accounts for multiple health behaviors and problems. PMID:26188618

Avascular necrosis of femoral and/or humeral heads in multiple myeloma: results of a prospective study of patients treated with dexamethasone-based regimens and high-dose chemotherapy.

PubMed

Talamo, Giampaolo; Angtuaco, Edgardo; Walker, Ronald C; Dong, Li; Miceli, Marisa H; Zangari, Maurizio; Tricot, Guido; Barlogie, Bart; Anaissie, Elias

2005-08-01

To assess the prevalence, time of onset, risk factors, and outcome of avascular necrosis (AVN) of bone in patients with multiple myeloma undergoing antineoplastic therapy. A total of 553 consecutive assessable patients were enrolled onto a treatment protocol consisting of dexamethasone-containing induction chemotherapy, autologous stem-cell transplantation, consolidation chemotherapy, and maintenance with interferon alfa. Patients were randomly assigned to receive thalidomide (269 patients) or no thalidomide (284 patients) throughout the study period. With a median follow-up of 33 months (range, 5 to 114 months), AVN of the femoral head(s) developed in 49 patients (9%). Median time to onset of AVN was 12 months (range, 2 to 41 months). Three risk factors for AVN were identified by multivariate analysis: cumulative dexamethasone dose (odds ratio [OR], 1.028; 95% CI, 1.012 to 1.044; P = .0006 [per 40 mg dexamethasone]), male sex (OR, 0.390; 95% CI, 0.192 to 0.790; P = .009), and younger age (OR, 0.961; 95% CI, 0.934 to 0.991 per year; P = .0122). Thalidomide-treated patients had a prevalence of AVN similar to that of the control group (8% v 10%, respectively; P = .58). AVN-related pain and limited range of motion of the affected joint were present in only nine and four patients, respectively, and four patients underwent hip replacement because of AVN. Fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography failed to detect abnormal uptake in the AVN-affected bones. AVN is a rare and usually asymptomatic complication during myeloma therapy. Cumulative dexamethasone dose, male sex, and younger age, but not thalidomide, increase the risk of AVN.

Are religiosity and prayer use related with multiple behavioural risk factors for chronic diseases in European adults aged 50+ years?

PubMed

Linardakis, M; Papadaki, A; Smpokos, E; Sarri, K; Vozikaki, M; Philalithis, A

2015-05-01

Behavioural risk factors for chronic diseases involve factors relating to lifestyle habits. This study examined the relationship of religious and spiritual beliefs with the adoption and presence of multiple behavioural risk factors (MBRFs) in European adults. Cross-sectional study. Data were used from 16,557 individuals, aged 50+ years, participating in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2004/05). MBRFs clustering was defined by high body weight, smoking, physical inactivity and risky alcohol consumption, and regression estimations with religiosity and prayer use were assessed based on sampling weights. In total, 79.4% of participants had received religious education, 33.4% had used prayer '≥1 time/day' and 53.3% had clustering of 2+ MBRFs. Lower prevalence of smoking was found in males (20.6% vs. 29.4%, P < 0.05), as well as in females (13.1% vs. 22.6%, P < 0.05), who prayed '≥1 time/day', compared to those who never prayed. Categorical regression analysis revealed that the presence of MBRFs was associated negatively with religious education (standardized beta = -0.048, P < 0.001) and positively with low frequency of prayer use (standardized beta = 0.056, P < 0.001). Having received religious education and prayer use were related to the presence of fewer MBRFs in European adults aged 50+ years. These lifestyle factors should be assessed as potential determinants of MBRFs adoption when examining chronic disease development in multicultural populations. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A latent class multiple constraint multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model of time use and goods consumption.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

This paper develops a microeconomic theory-based multiple discrete continuous choice model that considers: (a) that both goods consumption and time allocations (to work and non-work activities) enter separately as decision variables in the utility fu...

Risk factors for development of multiple-class resistance to Streptococcus pneumoniae Strains in Belgium over a 10-year period: antimicrobial consumption, population density, and geographic location.

PubMed

Van Eldere, Johan; Mera, Robertino M; Miller, Linda A; Poupard, James A; Amrine-Madsen, Heather

2007-10-01

We investigated the impact of the usage of antibiotics in ambulatory patients in Belgium in 147 defined geographical circumscriptions and at the individual isolate level. The study included 14,448 Streptococcus pneumoniae strains collected by the Belgium national reference lab from 1994 to 2004. Additional risk factors for resistance, such as population density/structure and day care attendance, were investigated for the same time-space window. A statistical model that included resistance to two or more antimicrobial classes offered the best fit for measuring the changes in nonsusceptibility to penicillin, macrolides, and tetracycline over time and place in Belgium. Analysis at the geographic level identified antimicrobial consumption with a 1-year lag (0.5% increase per additional defined daily dose) and population density as independent predictors of multiple resistance. Independent risk factors at the isolate level were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.55 for children aged <5 years), population density (7% increase in multiple resistance per 100 inhabitants/km(2)), conjugate 7-valent vaccine serotype (OR, 14.3), location (OR, 1.55 for regions bordering high-resistance France), and isolate source (OR, 1.54 for ear isolates). The expansion of multiple-resistant strains explains most of the overall twofold increase and subsequent decrease in single antimicrobial resistance between 1994 and 2004. We conclude that factors in addition to antibiotic use, such as high population density and proximity to high-resistance regions, favor multiple resistance. Regional resistance rates are not linearly related to actual antibiotic use but are linked to past antibiotic use plus a combination of demographic and geographic factors.

Developing Model Benchtop Systems for Microbial Experimental Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentry, D.; Wang, J.; Arismendi, D.; Alvarez, J.; Ouandji, C.; Blaich, J.

2017-12-01

Understanding how microbes impact an ecosystem has improved through advances of molecular and genetic tools, but creating complex systems that emulate natural biology goes beyond current technology. In fact, many chemical, biological, and metabolic pathways of even model organisms are still poorly characterized. Even then, standard laboratory techniques for testing microbial impact on environmental change can have many drawbacks; they are time-consuming, labor intensive, and are at risk of contamination. By having an automated process, many of these problems can be reduced or even eliminated. We are developing a benchtop system that can run for long periods of time without the need for human intervention, involve multiple environmental stressors at once, perform real-time adjustments of stressor exposure based on current state of the population, and minimize contamination risks. Our prototype device allows operators to generate an analogue of real world micro-scale ecosystems that can be used to model the effects of disruptive environmental change on microbial ecosystems. It comprises of electronics, mechatronics, and fluidics based systems to control, measure, and evaluate the before and after state of microbial cultures from exposure to environmental stressors. Currently, it uses four parallel growth chambers to perform tests on liquid cultures. To measure the population state, optical sensors (LED/photodiode) are used. Its primary selection pressure is UV-C radiation, a well-studied stressor known for its cell- and DNA- damaging effects and as a mutagen. Future work will involve improving the current growth chambers, as well as implementing additional sensors and environmental stressors into the system. Full integration of multiple culture testing will allow inter-culture comparisons. Besides the temperature and OD sensors, other types of sensors can be integrated such as conductivity, biomass, pH, and dissolved gasses such as CO2 and O2. Additional environmental stressor systems like temperature (extreme heat or cold), metal toxicity, and other forms of radiation will increase the scale and testing range.

Developing Model Benchtop Systems for Microbial Experimental Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jonathan; Arismendi, Dillon; Alvarez, Jennifer; Ouandji, Cynthia; Blaich, Justin; Gentry, Diana

2017-01-01

Understanding how microbes impact an ecosystem has improved through advances of molecular and genetic tools, but creating complex systems that emulate natural biology goes beyond current technology. In fact, many chemical, biological, and metabolic pathways of even model organisms are still poorly characterized. Even then, standard laboratory techniques for testing microbial impact on environmental change can have many drawbacks; they are time-consuming, labor intensive, and are at risk of contamination. By having an automated process, many of these problems can be reduced or even eliminated. We are developing a benchtop system that can run for long periods of time without the need for human intervention, involve multiple environmental stressors at once, perform real-time adjustments of stressor exposure based on current state of the population, and minimize contamination risks. Our prototype device allows operators to generate an analogue of real world micro-scale ecosystems that can be used to model the effects of disruptive environmental change on microbial ecosystems. It comprises of electronics, mechatronics, and fluidics based systems to control, measure, and evaluate the before and after state of microbial cultures from exposure to environmental stressors. Currently, it uses four parallel growth chambers to perform tests on liquid cultures. To measure the population state, optical sensors (LED/photodiode) are used. Its primary selection pressure is UV-C radiation, a well-studied stressor known for its cell- and DNA-damaging effects and as a mutagen. Future work will involve improving the current growth chambers, as well as implementing additional sensors and environmental stressors into the system. Full integration of multiple culture testing will allow inter-culture comparisons. Besides the temperature and OD sensors, other types of sensors can be integrated such as conductivity, biomass, pH, and dissolved gasses such as CO and O. Additional environmental stressor systems like temperature (extreme heat or cold), metal toxicity, and other forms of radiation will increase the scale and testing range.

Risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma incorporating revised IMWG diagnostic criteria.

PubMed

Lakshman, Arjun; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Buadi, Francis K; Binder, Moritz; Gertz, Morie A; Lacy, Martha Q; Dispenzieri, Angela; Dingli, David; Fonder, Amie L; Hayman, Suzanne R; Hobbs, Miriam A; Gonsalves, Wilson I; Hwa, Yi Lisa; Kapoor, Prashant; Leung, Nelson; Go, Ronald S; Lin, Yi; Kourelis, Taxiarchis V; Warsame, Rahma; Lust, John A; Russell, Stephen J; Zeldenrust, Steven R; Kyle, Robert A; Kumar, Shaji K

2018-06-12

In 2014, the International Myeloma Working Group reclassified patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) and bone marrow-plasma cell percentage (BMPC%) ≥ 60%, or serum free light chain ratio (FLCr) ≥ 100 or >1 focal lesion on magnetic resonance imaging as multiple myeloma (MM). Predictors of progression in patients currently classified as SMM are not known. We identified 421 patients with SMM, diagnosed between 2003 and 2015. The median time to progression (TTP) was 57 months (CI, 45-72). BMPC% > 20% [hazard ratio (HR): 2.28 (CI, 1.63-3.20); p < 0.0001]; M-protein > 2g/dL [HR: 1.56 (CI, 1.11-2.20); p = 0.01], and FLCr > 20 [HR: 2.13 (CI, 1.55-2.93); p < 0.0001] independently predicted shorter TTP in multivariate analysis. Age and immunoparesis were not significant. We stratified patients into three groups: low risk (none of the three risk factors; n = 143); intermediate risk (one of the three risk factors; n = 121); and high risk (≥2 of the three risk factors; n = 153). The median TTP for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 110, 68, and 29 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). BMPC% > 20%, M-protein > 2 g/dL, and FLCr > 20 at diagnosis can be used to risk stratify patients with SMM. Patients with high-risk SMM need close follow-up and are candidates for clinical trials aiming to prevent progression.

Space Radiation Risks for Astronauts on Multiple International Space Station Missions

PubMed Central

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate. PMID:24759903

Space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station missions.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA's radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members' radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate.

Perception and risk factors for cervical cancer among women in northern Ghana.

PubMed

Opoku, Constance A; Browne, Edmund Nii Laryea; Spangenberg, Kathryn; Moyer, Cheryl; Kolbilla, David; Gold, Katherine J

2016-06-01

This study assessed the perception of risk of cervical cancer and existence of risk factors for cervical cancer based on five known risk factors among women attending the Tamale Teaching Hospital in Tamale, Ghana. A consecutive sample of 300 women was interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to inquire about risk factors and perception of risk of cervical cancer. Specific risk factors that were explored included early coitarche, multiple sexual partners, polygamous relationships, history of smoking, and having a current partner who had multiple sexual partners. Sixty-one per cent of women reported that they had no personal risk for cervical cancer. 27% of respondents were in polygamous relationships, and of those, more than half didn't think they were at an increased risk of cervical cancer. 2 women had a total of ≥ 5 sexual partners in their lifetime and neither believed they were at any risk for cervical cancer. 23% said their current partner had had at least 2 sexual partners in his lifetime, and of those, (61%) thought they were at no risk for cervical cancer. 46% of respondents reported not having any of the risk factors listed in the study. 23% of respondents reported having one risk factor while 21% had two risk factors and 11% had three or more risk factors. Women's perception of personal risk for cervical cancer is lower than their actual risk based on the five behavioural risk factors assessed and a lack of knowledge of the personal factors for the disease. This project was supported by NIH Research Training Grant #R25 TW009345 funded by the Fogarty International Centre, in partnership with several NIH Institutes (NIMH, NIGMS, NHLBI, OAR and OWH).

Simulator for beam-based LHC collimator alignment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentino, Gianluca; Aßmann, Ralph; Redaelli, Stefano; Sammut, Nicholas

2014-02-01

In the CERN Large Hadron Collider, collimators need to be set up to form a multistage hierarchy to ensure efficient multiturn cleaning of halo particles. Automatic algorithms were introduced during the first run to reduce the beam time required for beam-based setup, improve the alignment accuracy, and reduce the risk of human errors. Simulating the alignment procedure would allow for off-line tests of alignment policies and algorithms. A simulator was developed based on a diffusion beam model to generate the characteristic beam loss signal spike and decay produced when a collimator jaw touches the beam, which is observed in a beam loss monitor (BLM). Empirical models derived from the available measurement data are used to simulate the steady-state beam loss and crosstalk between multiple BLMs. The simulator design is presented, together with simulation results and comparison to measurement data.

Stressors in Multiple Life-Domains and the Risk for Externalizing and Internalizing Behaviors among African Americans during Emerging Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Estrada-Martanez, Lorena M.; Caldwell, Cleopatra H.; Bauermeister, Jose A.; Zimmerman, Marc A.

2012-01-01

Behavioral and mental health outcomes have been associated with experiencing high levels of stress. Yet, little is known about the link between the nature of stressors, their accumulation over time, and the risk for externalizing and internalizing outcomes. Compared to the general population, African Americans are exposed to a disproportionate…

Kidney-Failure Risk Projection for the Living Kidney-Donor Candidate.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Sang, Yingying; Levey, Andrew S; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Ballew, Shoshana; Chang, Alex R; Chow, Eric K H; Kasiske, Bertram L; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Nadkarni, Girish N; Shalev, Varda; Segev, Dorry L; Coresh, Josef; Lentine, Krista L; Garg, Amit X

2016-02-04

Evaluation of candidates to serve as living kidney donors relies on screening for individual risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To support an empirical approach to donor selection, we developed a tool that simultaneously incorporates multiple health characteristics to estimate a person's probable long-term risk of ESRD if that person does not donate a kidney. We used risk associations from a meta-analysis of seven general population cohorts, calibrated to the population-level incidence of ESRD and mortality in the United States, to project the estimated long-term incidence of ESRD among persons who do not donate a kidney, according to 10 demographic and health characteristics. We then compared 15-year projections with the observed risk among 52,998 living kidney donors in the United States. A total of 4,933,314 participants from seven cohorts were followed for a median of 4 to 16 years. For a 40-year-old person with health characteristics that were similar to those of age-matched kidney donors, the 15-year projections of the risk of ESRD in the absence of donation varied according to race and sex; the risk was 0.24% among black men, 0.15% among black women, 0.06% among white men, and 0.04% among white women. Risk projections were higher in the presence of a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher albuminuria, hypertension, current or former smoking, diabetes, and obesity. In the model-based lifetime projections, the risk of ESRD was highest among persons in the youngest age group, particularly among young blacks. The 15-year observed risks after donation among kidney donors in the United States were 3.5 to 5.3 times as high as the projected risks in the absence of donation. Multiple demographic and health characteristics may be used together to estimate the projected long-term risk of ESRD among living kidney-donor candidates and to inform acceptance criteria for kidney donors. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.).

Effects of a Web-Based Tailored Multiple-Lifestyle Intervention for Adults: A Two-Year Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Sequential and Simultaneous Delivery Modes

PubMed Central

Kremers, Stef PJ; Vandelanotte, Corneel; van Adrichem, Mathieu JG; Schneider, Francine; Candel, Math JJM; de Vries, Hein

2014-01-01

Background Web-based computer-tailored interventions for multiple health behaviors can have a significant public health impact. Yet, few randomized controlled trials have tested this assumption. Objective The objective of this paper was to test the effects of a sequential and simultaneous Web-based tailored intervention on multiple lifestyle behaviors. Methods A randomized controlled trial was conducted with 3 tailoring conditions (ie, sequential, simultaneous, and control conditions) in the Netherlands in 2009-2012. Follow-up measurements took place after 12 and 24 months. The intervention content was based on the I-Change model. In a health risk appraisal, all respondents (N=5055) received feedback on their lifestyle behaviors that indicated whether they complied with the Dutch guidelines for physical activity, vegetable consumption, fruit consumption, alcohol intake, and smoking. Participants in the sequential (n=1736) and simultaneous (n=1638) conditions received tailored motivational feedback to change unhealthy behaviors one at a time (sequential) or all at the same time (simultaneous). Mixed model analyses were performed as primary analyses; regression analyses were done as sensitivity analyses. An overall risk score was used as outcome measure, then effects on the 5 individual lifestyle behaviors were assessed and a process evaluation was performed regarding exposure to and appreciation of the intervention. Results Both tailoring strategies were associated with small self-reported behavioral changes. The sequential condition had the most significant effects compared to the control condition after 12 months (T1, effect size=0.28). After 24 months (T2), the simultaneous condition was most effective (effect size=0.18). All 5 individual lifestyle behaviors changed over time, but few effects differed significantly between the conditions. At both follow-ups, the sequential condition had significant changes in smoking abstinence compared to the simultaneous condition (T1 effect size=0.31; T2 effect size=0.41). The sequential condition was more effective in decreasing alcohol consumption than the control condition at 24 months (effect size=0.27). Change was predicted by the amount of exposure to the intervention (total visiting time: beta=–.06; P=.01; total number of visits: beta=–.11; P<.001). Both interventions were appreciated well by respondents without significant differences between conditions. Conclusions Although evidence was found for the effectiveness of both programs, no simple conclusive finding could be drawn about which intervention mode was more effective. The best kind of intervention may depend on the behavior that is targeted or on personal preferences and motivation. Further research is needed to identify moderators of intervention effectiveness. The results need to be interpreted in view of the high and selective dropout rates, multiple comparisons, and modest effect sizes. However, a large number of people were reached at low cost and behavioral change was achieved after 2 years. Trial Registration Nederlands Trial Register: NTR 2168; http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=2168 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6MbUqttYB). PMID:24472854

Project START: Using a Multiple Intelligences Model in Identifying and Promoting Talent in High-Risk Students. Research Monograph 95136.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Callahan, Carolyn M.; Tomlinson, Carol A.; Moon, Tonya R.; Tomchin, Ellen M.; Plucker, Jonathan A.

This monograph describes Project START (Support To Affirm Rising Talent), a three-year collaborative research effort to develop and apply gifted identification procedures based on Howard Gardner's (1983) theory of multiple intelligences. Specifically, the study attempted to: (1) develop identification procedures; (2) identify high-potential…

Characteristics of Interventions Targeting Multiple Lifestyle Risk Behaviours in Adult Populations: A Systematic Scoping Review

PubMed Central

King, Kristel; Meader, Nick; Wright, Kath; Graham, Hilary; Power, Christine; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Sowden, Amanda J.

2015-01-01

Background Modifiable lifestyle risk behaviours such as smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and alcohol misuse are the leading causes of major, non-communicable diseases worldwide. It is increasingly being recognised that interventions which target more than one risk behaviour may be an effective and efficient way of improving people’s lifestyles. To date, there has been no attempt to summarise the global evidence base for interventions targeting multiple risk behaviours. Objective To identify and map the characteristics of studies evaluating multiple risk behaviour change interventions targeted at adult populations in any country. Methods Seven bibliographic databases were searched between January, 1990, and January/ May, 2013. Authors of protocols, conference abstracts, and other relevant articles were contacted. Study characteristics were extracted and inputted into Eppi-Reviewer 4. Results In total, 220 studies were included in the scoping review. Most were randomised controlled trials (62%) conducted in the United States (49%), and targeted diet and physical activity (56%) in people from general populations (14%) or subgroups of general populations (45%). Very few studies had been conducted in the Middle East (2%), Africa (0.5%), or South America (0.5%). There was also a scarcity of studies conducted among young adults (1%), or racial and minority ethnic populations (4%) worldwide. Conclusions Research is required to investigate the interrelationships of lifestyle risk behaviours in varying cultural contexts around the world. Cross-cultural development and evaluation of multiple risk behaviour change interventions is also needed, particularly in populations of young adults and racial and minority ethnic populations. PMID:25617783

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aggregate Exposure Pathways in Support of Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Yu-Mei; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Edwards, Stephen

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluation of multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand the complex mechanisms that influence risk of chemical and non-chemical stressors, beginning at their source and ending at a biological endpoint relevant to human or ecosystem health risk assessment. Just as the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a means of providing insight into mechanism-based toxicity, the exposure science community has seen the recent introduction of themore » Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) framework. AEPs aid in making exposure data applicable to the FAIR (i.e., findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) principle, especially by (1) organizing continuous flow of disjointed exposure information;(2) identifying data gaps, to focus resources on acquiring the most relevant data; (3) optimizing use and repurposing of existing exposure data; and (4) facilitating interoperability among predictive models. Herein, we discuss integration of the AOP and AEP frameworks and how such integration can improve confidence in both traditional and cumulative risk assessment approaches.« less

Aggregate Exposure Pathways in Support of Risk Assessment

DOE PAGES

Tan, Yu-Mei; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Edwards, Stephen; ...

2018-03-29

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluation of multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand the complex mechanisms that influence risk of chemical and non-chemical stressors, beginning at their source and ending at a biological endpoint relevant to human or ecosystem health risk assessment. Just as the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a means of providing insight into mechanism-based toxicity, the exposure science community has seen the recent introduction of themore » Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) framework. AEPs aid in making exposure data applicable to the FAIR (i.e., findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) principle, especially by (1) organizing continuous flow of disjointed exposure information;(2) identifying data gaps, to focus resources on acquiring the most relevant data; (3) optimizing use and repurposing of existing exposure data; and (4) facilitating interoperability among predictive models. Herein, we discuss integration of the AOP and AEP frameworks and how such integration can improve confidence in both traditional and cumulative risk assessment approaches.« less

Step On It! - Workplace cardiovascular risk assessment of New York City yellow taxi drivers

PubMed Central

Gany, Francesca; Bari, Sehrish; Gill, Pavan; Ramirez, Julia; Ayash, Claudia; Loeb, Rebecca; Aragones, Abraham; Leng, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Background Multiple factors associated with taxi driving can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in taxi drivers. Methods This paper describes the results of Step On It!, which assessed CVD risk factors among New York City taxi drivers at John F. Kennedy International Airport. Drivers completed an intake questionnaire and free screenings for blood pressure, glucose and body mass index (BMI). Results 466 drivers participated. 9% had random plasma glucose values >200 mg/dl. 77% had elevated BMIs. Immigrants who lived in the U.S. for >10 years had 2.5 times the odds (CI: 1.1–5.9) of having high blood pressure compared to newer immigrants. Discussion Abnormalities documented in this study were significant, especially for immigrants with greater duration of residence in the U.S., and underscore the potential for elevated CVD risk in this vulnerable population, and the need to address this risk through frameworks that utilize multiple levels of intervention. PMID:25680879

Depressive symptoms in adolescence: the association with multiple health risk behaviors.

PubMed

Katon, Wayne; Richardson, Laura; Russo, Joan; McCarty, Carolyn A; Rockhill, Carol; McCauley, Elizabeth; Richards, Julie; Grossman, David C

2010-01-01

Although multiple studies of adolescents have examined the association of depression with individual health risk behaviors such as obesity or smoking, this is one of the few studies that examined the association between depression and multiple risk behaviors. A brief mail questionnaire, which screened for age, gender, weight, height, sedentary behaviors, physical activity, perception of general health, functional impairment and depressive symptoms, was completed by a sample of 2291 youth (60.7% response rate) aged 13-17 enrolled in a health care plan. A subset of youth who screened positive on the two-item depression screen and a random sample of those screening negative were approached to participate in a telephone interview with more in-depth information obtained on smoking and at-risk behaviors associated with drug and alcohol use. Youth screening positive for high levels of depressive symptoms compared to those with few or no depressive symptoms were significantly more likely to meet criteria for obesity, had a poorer perception of health, spent more time on the computer, got along less well with parents and friends, had more problems completing school work and were more likely to have experimented with smoking and a wide array of behaviors associated with drug and alcohol use. Because many adverse health behaviors that develop in adolescence continue into adulthood, the association of depressive symptoms with multiple risk behaviors and poor functioning suggest that early interventions are needed at an individual, school, community and primary care level. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

PubMed Central

Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-01-01

Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

PubMed

Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-06-01

This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

Selecting and applying indicators of ecosystem collapse for risk assessments.

PubMed

Rowland, Jessica A; Nicholson, Emily; Murray, Nicholas J; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca E; Bland, Lucie M

2018-03-12

Ongoing ecosystem degradation and transformation are key threats to biodiversity. Measuring ecosystem change towards collapse relies on monitoring indicators that quantify key ecological processes. Yet little guidance is available on selecting and implementing indicators for ecosystem risk assessment. Here, we reviewed indicator use in ecological studies of decline towards collapse in marine pelagic and temperate forest ecosystems. We evaluated the use of indicator selection methods, indicator types (geographic distribution, abiotic, biotic), methods of assessing multiple indicators, and temporal quality of time series. We compared these ecological studies to risk assessments in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), where indicators are used to estimate ecosystem collapse risk. We found that ecological studies and RLE assessments rarely reported how indicators were selected, particularly in terrestrial ecosystems. Few ecological studies and RLE assessments quantified ecosystem change with all three indicator types, and indicators types used varied between marine and terrestrial ecosystem. Several studies used indices or multivariate analyses to assess multiple indicators simultaneously, but RLE assessments did not, as RLE guidelines advise against them. Most studies and RLE assessments used time series spanning at least 30 years, increasing the chance of reliably detecting change. Limited use of indicator selection protocols and infrequent use of all three indicator types may hamper the ability to accurately detect changes. To improve the value of risk assessments for informing policy and management, we recommend using: (i) explicit protocols, including conceptual models, to identify and select indicators; (ii) a range of indicators spanning distributional, abiotic and biotic features; (iii) indices and multivariate analyses with extreme care until guidelines are developed; (iv) time series with sufficient data to increase ability to accurately diagnose directional change; (v) data from multiple sources to support assessments; and (vi) explicitly reporting steps in the assessment process. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Development of Real Time System for Data Communication Based on SCO UNIX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Ying-Min

2002-01-01

The real time system based on SCO UNIX has the multiple tasks properties as on other UNIX system. The costs is lower than other UNIX system. In this paper the usage of multiple serial communication and UDP communication is mainly introduced. The data housekeeping and system monitor are described.

The Global Landscape of Occupational Exposure Limits—Implementation of Harmonization Principles to Guide Limit Selection

PubMed Central

Deveau, M.; Chen, C-P; Johanson, G.; Krewski, D.; Maier, A.; Niven, K. J.; Ripple, S.; Schulte, P. A.; Silk, J.; Urbanus, J. H.; Zalk, D. M.; Niemeier, R. W.

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits (OELs) serve as health-based benchmarks against which measured or estimated workplace exposures can be compared. In the years since the introduction of OELs to public health practice, both developed and developing countries have established processes for deriving, setting, and using OELs to protect workers exposed to hazardous chemicals. These processes vary widely, however, and have thus resulted in a confusing international landscape for identifying and applying such limits in workplaces. The occupational hygienist will encounter significant overlap in coverage among organizations for many chemicals, while other important chemicals have OELs developed by few, if any, organizations. Where multiple organizations have published an OEL, the derived value often varies considerably—reflecting differences in both risk policy and risk assessment methodology as well as access to available pertinent data. This article explores the underlying reasons for variability in OELs, and recommends the harmonization of risk-based methods used by OEL-deriving organizations. A framework is also proposed for the identification and systematic evaluation of OEL resources, which occupational hygienists can use to support risk characterization and risk management decisions in situations where multiple potentially relevant OELs exist. PMID:26099071

The Global Landscape of Occupational Exposure Limits--Implementation of Harmonization Principles to Guide Limit Selection.

PubMed

Deveau, M; Chen, C-P; Johanson, G; Krewski, D; Maier, A; Niven, K J; Ripple, S; Schulte, P A; Silk, J; Urbanus, J H; Zalk, D M; Niemeier, R W

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits (OELs) serve as health-based benchmarks against which measured or estimated workplace exposures can be compared. In the years since the introduction of OELs to public health practice, both developed and developing countries have established processes for deriving, setting, and using OELs to protect workers exposed to hazardous chemicals. These processes vary widely, however, and have thus resulted in a confusing international landscape for identifying and applying such limits in workplaces. The occupational hygienist will encounter significant overlap in coverage among organizations for many chemicals, while other important chemicals have OELs developed by few, if any, organizations. Where multiple organizations have published an OEL, the derived value often varies considerably-reflecting differences in both risk policy and risk assessment methodology as well as access to available pertinent data. This article explores the underlying reasons for variability in OELs, and recommends the harmonization of risk-based methods used by OEL-deriving organizations. A framework is also proposed for the identification and systematic evaluation of OEL resources, which occupational hygienists can use to support risk characterization and risk management decisions in situations where multiple potentially relevant OELs exist.

Correlates of smoking with socioeconomic status, leisure time physical activity and alcohol consumption among Polish adults from randomly selected regions.

PubMed

Woitas-Slubowska, Donata; Hurnik, Elzbieta; Skarpańska-Stejnborn, Anna

2010-12-01

To determine the association between smoking status and leisure time physical activity (LTPA), alcohol consumption, and socioeconomic status (SES) among Polish adults. 466 randomly selected men and women (aged 18-66 years) responded to an anonymous questionnaire regarding smoking, alcohol consumption, LTPA, and SES. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the association of smoking status with six socioeconomic measures, level of LTPA, and frequency and type of alcohol consumed. Smokers were defined as individuals smoking occasionally or daily. The odds of being smoker were 9 times (men) and 27 times (women) higher among respondents who drink alcohol several times/ week or everyday in comparison to non-drinkers (p < 0.0001 and p < 0.0001). Among men with the elementary/vocational level of education the frequency of smoking was four times higher compared to those with the high educational attainment (p = 0.007). Among women we observed that students were the most frequent smokers. Female students were almost three times more likely to smoke than non-professional women, and two times more likely than physical workers (p = 0.018). The findings of this study indicated that among randomly selected Polish man and women aged 18-66 smoking and alcohol consumption tended to cluster. These results imply that intervention strategies need to target multiple risk factors simultaneously. The highest risk of smoking was observed among low educated men, female students, and both men and women drinking alcohol several times a week or every day. Information on subgroups with the high risk of smoking will help in planning future preventive strategies.

An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

EPA Science Inventory

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

Benchmark Dose Analysis from Multiple Datasets: The Cumulative Risk Assessment for the N-Methyl Carbamate Pesticides

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s N-Methyl Carbamate (NMC) Cumulative Risk assessment was based on the effect on acetylcholine esterase (AChE) activity of exposure to 10 NMC pesticides through dietary, drinking water, and residential exposures, assuming the effects of joint exposure to NMCs is dose-...

Candidate biomarker discovery and selection for ‘Granny Smith' superficial scald risk management and diagnosis, poster board

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Discovery of candidate biomarkers for superficial scald, a peel disorder that develops during storage of susceptible apple cultivars, is part of a larger project aimed at developing biomarker-based risk-management and diagnostic tools for multiple apple postharvest disorders (http://www.tfrec.wsu.ed...

Methodological and Design Considerations in Evaluating the Impact of Prevention Programs on Violence and Related Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Massetti, Greta M; Simon, Thomas R; Smith, Deborah Gorman

2016-10-01

Drawing on research that has identified specific predictors and trajectories of risk for violence and related negative outcomes, a multitude of small- and large-scale preventive interventions for specific risk behaviors have been developed, implemented, and evaluated. One of the principal challenges of these approaches is that a number of separate problem-specific programs targeting different risk areas have emerged. However, as many negative health behaviors such as substance abuse and violence share a multitude of risk factors, many programs target identical risk factors. There are opportunities to understand whether evidence-based programs can be leveraged for potential effects across a spectrum of outcomes and over time. Some recent work has documented longitudinal effects of evidence-based interventions on generalized outcomes. This work has potential for advancing our understanding of the effectiveness of promising and evidence-based prevention strategies. However, conducting longitudinal follow-up of established interventions presents a number of methodological and design challenges. To answer some of these questions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a panel of multidisciplinary experts to discuss opportunities to take advantage of evaluations of early prevention programs and evaluating multiple long-term outcomes. This special section of the journal Prevention Science includes a series of papers that begin to address the relevant considerations for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research. This collection of papers is intended to inform our understanding of the challenges and strategies for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research that could be used to drive future research endeavors.

Streets, drugs, and the economy of sex in the age of AIDS.

PubMed

Weeks, M R; Grier, M; Romero-Daza, N; Puglisi-Vasquez, M J; Singer, M

1998-01-01

Drug addicted women whose economic and social base is urban streets face limited options for income generation and multiple dangers of predation, assault, arrest, and illness. Exchanging sex for money or drugs offers one important source of income in this context. Yet the legal, social, and safety risks associated with these exchanges reduce the likelihood of regular safer sex practices during these encounters, thereby increasing the risk of HIV infection. Such conditions lead women engaged in sexual exchanges for money to varied and complex responses influenced by multiple and often contradictory pressures, both personal and contextual. Street-recruited women drug users in an AIDS prevention program in Hart-ford, Connecticut reported a range of condom use when engaging in sex for money exchanges. This paper explores their differences by ethnicity, economic resources, and drug use, and analyzes these and other factors that impact on street risks through sexual income generation. Surveys and in-depth interviews with drug-addicted women sex workers describe their various approaches to addressing multiple risks on the streets and suggest significant effort by women in these contexts to avoid the many risks, including HIV infection.

Work in multiple jobs and the risk of injury in the US working population.

PubMed

Marucci-Wellman, Helen R; Willetts, Joanna L; Lin, Tin-Chi; Brennan, Melanye J; Verma, Santosh K

2014-01-01

We compared the risk of injury for multiple job holders (MJHs) with that for single job holders (SJHs). We used information from the National Health Interview Survey for the years 1997 through 2011 to estimate the rate of multiple job holding in the United States and compared characteristics and rates of self-reported injury (work and nonwork) for SJHs versus MJHs. Approximately 8.4% of those employed reported working more than 1 job in the week before the interview. The rate of work and nonwork injury episodes per 100 employed workers was higher for MJHs than for SJHs (4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.5, 4.8; vs 3.3; 95% CI = 3.1, 3.5 work injuries and 9.9; 95% CI = 8.9, 10.9; vs 7.4; 95% CI = 7.1, 7.6 nonwork injuries per 100 workers, respectively). When calculated per 100 full-time equivalents (P < .05), the rate ratio remained higher for MJHs. Our findings suggest that working in multiple jobs is associated with an increased risk of an injury, both at work and not at work, and should be considered in injury surveillance.

Estimating the Marginal Causal Effect of Fish Consumption during Adolescence on Multiple Sclerosis: A Population-Based Incident Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Kaufman, Jay S

2018-01-01

Adolescence is considered as a critical time period in multiple sclerosis (MS) etiology. Nonetheless, there are insufficient reports regarding the potential role of fresh and canned fish consumptions during adolescence in MS etiology. The authors investigated the association between fresh and canned fish consumptions and MS. This was a population-based incident case-control study conducted in Tehran. Cases (n = 547) identified from Iranian Multiple Sclerosis Society between August 7, 2013, and November 17, 2015 were included in the study. Population-based controls (n = 1,057) were recruited by random digit telephone dialing without any matching. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighing (IPTW) using 2 sets of propensity scores and model-based standardization were used to separately estimate the marginal odds ratio between fresh and canned fish consumptions in adolescence and MS. The marginal OR for fresh fish was 0.72 (95% CI 0.58-0.90; p = 0.005) in both IPTW analyses. Similarly, the marginal OR for canned fish consumption was 0.75 (95% CI 0.60-0.95; p = 0.014).The model-based standardized OR was 0.72 (95% CI 0.58-0.91; p = 0.008) for fresh and 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.94; p = 0.006) for canned fish consumption in adolescence. Subject to limitation of case-control studies in interpreting associations causally, this study suggests that both fresh and canned fish consumptions in adolescence can decrease the risk of MS. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Comparing narrative and multiple-choice formats in online communication skill assessment.

PubMed

Kim, Sara; Spielberg, Freya; Mauksch, Larry; Farber, Stu; Duong, Cuong; Fitch, Wes; Greer, Tom

2009-06-01

We compared multiple-choice and open-ended responses collected from a web-based tool designated 'Case for Change', which had been developed for assessing and teaching medical students in the skills involved in integrating sexual risk assessment and behaviour change discussions into patient-centred primary care visits. A total of 111 Year 3 students completed the web-based tool. A series of videos from one patient encounter illustrated how a clinician uses patient-centred communication and health behaviour change skills while caring for a patient presenting with a urinary tract infection. Each video clip was followed by a request for students to respond in two ways to the question: 'What would you do next?' Firstly, students typed their statements of what they would say to the patient. Secondly, students selected from a multiple-choice list the statements that most closely resembled their free text entries. These two modes of students' answers were analysed and compared. When articulating what they would say to the patient in a narrative format, students frequently used doctor-centred approaches that focused on premature diagnostic questioning or neglected to elicit patient perspectives. Despite the instruction to select a matching statement from the multiple-choice list, students tended to choose the most exemplary patient-centred statement, which was contrary to the doctor-centred approaches reflected in their narrative responses. Open-ended questions facilitate in-depth understanding of students' educational needs, although the scoring of narrative responses is time-consuming. Multiple-choice questions allow efficient scoring and individualised feedback associated with question items but do not fully elicit students' thought processes.