A Correlated Optical and Gamma Emission from GRB 081126A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gendre, B.; Klotz, A.; CESR, Observatoire Midi-Pyrenees, CNRS, Universite de Toulouse, BP 4346, F-31028-Toulouse Cedex 04

2010-10-15

We present an analysis of time-resolved optical emissions observed from the gamma-ray burst GRB 081126 during the prompt phase. The analysis employed time-resolved photometry using optical data obtained by the TAROT telescope, BAT data from the Swift spacecraft and time-resolved spectroscopy at high energies from the GBM instrument onboard the Fermi spacecraft. The optical emission of GRB 081126 is found to be compatible with the second gamma emission pulse shifted by a positive time-lag of 8.4{+-}3.9 sec. This is the first well resolved observation of a time lag between optical and gamma emissions during a gamma-ray burst. Our observations couldmore » potentially provide new constraints on the fireball model for gamma ray burst early emissions. Furthermore, observations of time-lags between optical and gamma ray photons provides an exciting opportunity to constrain quantum gravity theories.« less

To lag or not to lag? How to compare indices of stock markets that operate on different times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoval, Leonidas

2014-06-01

Financial markets worldwide do not have the same working hours. As a consequence, the study of correlation or causality between financial market indices becomes dependent on whether we should use all indices on the same day or lagged indices in computations of correlation matrices. The answer this article proposes is that we should consider both, by representing original and lagged indices in the same network. We then obtain a better understanding of how indices that operate on different hours relate to each other. We use a diverse range of 79 stock market indices from around the world and study their correlation structure, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of their correlations under different time periods and volatility, as well as the differences between the working hours of the stock exchanges in order to analyze the possible time zone effects and suggest ways to remove them. We also analyze the enlarged correlation matrix obtained from original and lagged indices and examine a network structure derived from it, thus showing connections between lagged and original indices that could not be well represented before.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

2017-12-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications to improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

Cross-correlations between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li

2014-02-01

In this paper, we investigate cross-correlations between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets. Based on a popular statistical test proposed by Podobnik et al. (2009), we find that the linear return cross-correlations are significant at larger lag lengths and the volatility cross-correlations are highly significant at all of the lag lengths under consideration. Using a detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), we find that the return cross-correlations are persistent for corn and soybean and anti-persistent for oat and soybean. The volatility cross-correlations are strongly persistent. Using a nonlinear cross-correlation measure, our results show that cross-correlations are relatively weak but they are significant for smaller time scales. For larger time scales, the cross-correlations are not significant. The reason may be that information transmission from crude oil market to agriculture markets can complete within a certain period of time. Finally, based on multifractal extension of DCCA, we find that the cross-correlations are multifractal and high oil prices partly contribute to food crisis during the period of 2006-mid-2008.

Diverse Responses of Global Vegetation to Climate Changes: Spatial Patterns and Time-lag Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Zhao, X.; Zhou, T.; Huang, K.; Xu, W.

2014-12-01

Global climate changes have enormous influences on vegetation growth, meanwhile, response of vegetation to climate express space diversity and time-lag effects, which account for spatial-temporal disparities of climate change and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem. Revelation of this phenomenon will help us further understanding the impact of climate change on vegetation. Assessment and forecast of global environmental change can be also improved under further climate change. Here we present space diversity and time-lag effects patterns of global vegetation respond to three climate factors (temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) based on quantitative analysis of satellite data (NDVI) and Climate data (Climate Research Unit). We assessed the time-lag effects of global vegetation to main climate factors based on the great correlation fitness between NDVI and the three climate factors respectively among 0-12 months' temporal lags. On this basis, integrated response model of NDVI and the three climate factors was built to analyze contribution of different climate factors to vegetation growth with multiple regression model and partial correlation model. In the result, different vegetation types have distinct temporal lags to the three climate factors. For the precipitation, temporal lags of grasslands are the shortest while the evergreen broad-leaf forests are the longest, which means that grasslands are more sensitive to precipitation than evergreen broad-leaf forests. Analysis of different climate factors' contribution to vegetation reveal that vegetation are dominated by temperature in the high northern latitudes; they are mainly restricted by precipitation in arid and semi-arid areas (Australia, Western America); in humid areas of low and intermediate latitudes (Amazon, Eastern America), vegetation are mainly influenced by solar radiation. Our results reveal the time-lag effects and major driving factors of global vegetation growth and explain the spatiotemporal variations of global vegetation in last 30 years. Significantly, it is as well as in forecasting and assessing the influences of future climate change on the vegetation dynamics. This work was supported by the High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant NO.2013AA122801).

Solar generated quasi-biennial geomagnetic variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sugiura, M.; Poros, D. J.

1977-01-01

The existence of highly correlated quasi-biennial variations in the geomagnetic field and in solar activity is demonstrated. The analysis uses a numerical filter technique applied to monthly averages of the geomagnetic horizontal component and of the Zurich relative sunspot number. Striking correlations are found between the quasi-biennial geomagnetic variations determined from several magnetic observatories located at widely different longitudes, indicating a worldwide nature of the obtained variation. The correlation coefficient between the filtered Dst index and the filtered relative sunspot number is found to be -0.79 at confidence level greater than 99% with a time-lag of 4 months, with solar activity preceding the Dst variation. The correlation between the unfiltered data of Dst and of the sunspot number is also high with a similar time-lag. Such a timelag has not been discussed in the literature, and a further study is required to establish the mode of sun-earth relationship that gives this time delay.

Determination of the Time-Space Magnetic Correlation Functions in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weygand, J. M.; Matthaeus, W. H.; Kivelson, M.; Dasso, S.

2013-12-01

Magnetic field data from many different intervals and 7 different solar wind spacecraft are employed to estimate the scale-dependent time decorrelation function in the interplanetary magnetic field in both the slow and fast solar wind. This estimation requires correlations varying with both space and time lags. The two point correlation function with no time lag is determined by correlating time series data from multiple spacecraft separated in space and for complete coverage of length scales relies on many intervals with different spacecraft spatial separations. In addition we employ single spacecraft time-lagged correlations, and two spacecraft time lagged correlations to access different spatial and temporal correlation data. Combining these data sets gives estimates of the scale-dependent time decorrelation function, which in principle tells us how rapidly time decorrelation occurs at a given wavelength. For static fields the scale-dependent time decorrelation function is trivially unity, but in turbulence the nonlinear cascade process induces time-decorrelation at a given length scale that occurs more rapidly with decreasing scale. The scale-dependent time decorrelation function is valuable input to theories as well as various applications such as scattering, transport, and study of predictability. It is also a fundamental element of formal turbulence theory. Our results are extension of the Eulerian correlation functions estimated in Matthaeus et al. [2010], Weygand et al [2012; 2013].

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes “bad news” for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices.

PubMed

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes "bad news" for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

Emergence and temporal structure of Lead-Lag correlations in collective stock dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lisi; You, Daming; Jiang, Xin; Chen, Wei

2018-07-01

Understanding the correlations among stock returns is crucial for reducing the risk of investment in stock markets. As an important stylized correlation, lead-lag effect plays a major role in analyzing market volatility and deriving trading strategies. Here, we explore historical lead-lag relationships among stocks in the Chinese stock market. Strongly positive lagged correlations can be empirically observed. We demonstrate this lead-lag phenomenon is not constant but temporally emerges during certain periods. By introducing moving time window method, we transform the lead-lag dynamics into a series of asymmetric lagged correlation matrices. Dynamic lead-lag structures are uncovered in the form of temporal network structures. We find that the size of lead-lag group experienced a rapid drop during the year 2012, which signaled a re-balance of the stock market. On the daily timescale, we find the lead-lag structure exhibits several persistent patterns, which can be characterized by the Jaccard matrix. We show significant market events can be distinguished in the Jaccard matrix diagram. Taken together, we study an integration of all the temporal networks and identify several leading stock sectors, which are in accordance with the common Chinese economic fundamentals.

Time-lag of the earthquake energy release between three seismic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsapanos, Theodoros M.; Liritzis, Ioannis

1992-06-01

Three complete data sets of strong earthquakes ( M≥5.5), which occurred in the seismic regions of Chile, Mexico and Kamchatka during the time period 1899 1985, have been used to test the existence of a time-lag in the seismic energy release between these regions. These data sets were cross-correlated in order to determine whether any pair of the sets are correlated. For this purpose statistical tests, such as the T-test, the Fisher's transformation and probability distribution have been applied to determine the significance of the obtained correlation coefficients. The results show that the time-lag between Chile and Kamchatka is -2, which means that Kamchatka precedes Chile by 2 years, with a correlation coefficient significant at 99.80% level, a weak correlation between Kamchatka-Mexico and noncorrelation for Mexico-Chile.

Preliminary analysis of cross beam data from the Gun Barrel Hill site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandborn, V. A.; Bice, A. R.; Cliff, W. C.; Hablutzel, B. C.

1974-01-01

Preliminary evaluation of cross beam data taken at the Gun Barrell Hill test site of ESSA is presented. The evaluation is made using the analog Princeton Time Correlator. A study of the frequency band width limitations of the Princeton Time Correlator is made. Based on the band width limitations, it is possible to demonstrate that nearly identical correlation is obtained for frequencies from .01 to 3.9 hertz. Difficulty is encountered in that maximums in the correlation curves do not occur at zero time lag for zero beam separations.

Asymmetric correlation matrices: an analysis of financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livan, G.; Rebecchi, L.

2012-06-01

We analyse the spectral properties of correlation matrices between distinct statistical systems. Such matrices are intrinsically non-symmetric, and lend themselves to extend the spectral analyses usually performed on standard Pearson correlation matrices to the realm of complex eigenvalues. We employ some recent random matrix theory results on the average eigenvalue density of this type of matrix to distinguish between noise and non-trivial correlation structures, and we focus on financial data as a case study. Namely, we employ daily prices of stocks belonging to the American and British stock exchanges, and look for the emergence of correlations between two such markets in the eigenvalue spectrum of their non-symmetric correlation matrix. We find several non trivial results when considering time-lagged correlations over short lags, and we corroborate our findings by additionally studying the asymmetric correlation matrix of the principal components of our datasets.

Dynamical behavior of the correlation between meteorological factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Cheol-Hwan; Chang, Ki-Ho; Lee, Jun-Ho; Kim, Kyungsik

2017-12-01

We study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of meteorological factors (temperature, humidity, and wind velocity) at a meteorological tower located on Bosung-gun of South Korea. We employ the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) method to extract the overall tendency of the hourly variation from data of meteorological factors. The relationships between meteorological factors are identified and quantified by using DCCA coefficients. From our results, we ascertain that the DCCA coefficient between temperature and humidity at time lag m = 24 has the smallest value at the height of 10 m of the measuring tower. Particularly, the DCCA coefficient between temperature and wind speed at time lag m = 24 has the largest value at a height of 10 m of the measuring tower

EVOLUTION OF THE CROSS-CORRELATION AND TIME LAG OF 4U 1735-44 ALONG THE BRANCHES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lei Yajuan; Zhang Haotong; Zhang Chengmin

We analyze the cross-correlation function between the soft and hard X-rays of atoll source 4U 1735-44 with RXTE data, and find anti-correlated soft and hard time lags of about a hecto-second. In the island state, the observations do not show any obvious correlations, and most observations of the banana branch show a positive correlation. However, anti-correlations are detected in the upper banana branch. These results are different from those of Z-sources (Cyg X-2, GX 5-1), where anti-correlations are detected in the horizontal branch and upper normal branch. In this case, the lag timescales of both this atoll and Z-sources aremore » found to be similar, at a magnitude of several tens to hundreds of seconds. As a comparison, it is noted that anti-correlated lags lasting thousands of seconds have been reported from several black hole candidates in their intermediate states. In addition, for an observation containing four segments that show positive or anti-correlation, we analyze the spectral evolution with the hybrid model. In the observation, the anti-correlation is detected at the highest flux. The fitting results show that the Comptonized component is not the lowest at the highest flux, which suggests that the anti-correlation corresponds to the transition between the soft and hard states. Finally, we compare the corresponding results of atoll source 4U 1735-44 with those observed in Z-sources and black hole candidates, and the possible origins of the anti-correlated time lags are discussed.« less

Procedures in the 13C octanoic acid breath test for measurement of gastric emptying: analysis using Bland-Altman methods.

PubMed

Clegg, Miriam E; Shafat, Amir

2010-08-01

The (13)C octanoic acid breath test (OBT) was first developed as an alternative method of measuring gastric emptying (GE) to scintigraphy. There has been much debate about the test duration and how often measurements need to be taken. This study aims to address these issues. For 78 GE tests using the (13)C OBT, GE lag phase (T(lag)) was calculated while sampling more frequently than the recommended every 15 min. Comparisons between T(lag) were completed using Bland-Altman plots. Similarly, 4 or 6 h test durations were assessed to establish if they yield the same GE half time (T(half)). From one volunteer, samples were taken every 1 min for the first 30 min and then every 15 min until 6 h. GE times were then calculated using different combinations of sampling times. Evidence of a visible T(lag) was also explored from this data. Findings indicated that taking samples every 5 min for the first 30 min instead of every 15 min did not change the GE T(lag) based on Bland-Altman plots. The correlation between these two methods was also high (r(2) = 0.9957). The findings showed that the difference between the two sampling durations 4 and 6 h was large and the correlation between the methods was low (r(2) = 0.8335). Samples taken at a rate of one breath per min indicated lack of a visible T(lag). Sampling for the (13)C OBT should be completed every 15 min for 6 h.

A Lagging Model for Describing Drawdown Induced by a Constant-Rate Pumping in a Leaky Confined Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ye-Chen; Yeh, Hund-Der

2017-10-01

This study proposes a generalized Darcy's law with considering phase lags in both the water flux and drawdown gradient to develop a lagging flow model for describing drawdown induced by constant-rate pumping (CRP) in a leaky confined aquifer. The present model has a mathematical formulation similar to the dual-porosity model. The Laplace-domain solution of the model with the effect of wellbore storage is derived by the Laplace transform method. The time-domain solution for the case of neglecting the wellbore storage and well radius is developed by the use of Laplace transform and Weber transform. The results of sensitivity analysis based on the solution indicate that the drawdown is very sensitive to the change in each of the transmissivity and storativity. Also, a study for the lagging effect on the drawdown indicates that its influence is significant associated with the lag times. The present solution is also employed to analyze a data set taken from a CRP test conducted in a fractured aquifer in South Dakota, USA. The results show the prediction of this new solution with considering the phase lags has very good fit to the field data, especially at early pumping time. In addition, the phase lags seem to have a scale effect as indicated in the results. In other words, the lagging behavior is positively correlated with the observed distance in the Madison aquifer.

Climatological variables and the incidence of Dengue fever in Barbados.

PubMed

Depradine, Colin; Lovell, Ernest

2004-12-01

A retrospective study to determine relationships between the incidence of dengue cases and climatological variables and to obtain a predictive equation was carried out for the relatively small Caribbean island of Barbados which is divided into 11 parishes. The study used the weekly dengue cases and precipitation data for the years (1995 - 2000) that occurred in the small area of a single parish. Other climatological data were obtained from the local meteorological offices. The study used primarily cross correlation analysis and found the strongest correlation with the vapour pressure at a lag of 6 weeks. A weaker correlation occurred at a lag of 7 weeks for the precipitation. The minimum temperature had its strongest correlation at a lag of 12 weeks and the maximum temperature a lag of 16 weeks. There was a negative correlation with the wind speed at a lag of 3 weeks. The predictive models showed a maximum explained variance of 35%.

Examining the lag time between state-level income inequality and individual disabilities: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Gadalla, Tahany M; Fuller-Thomson, Esme

2008-12-01

State-level income inequality has been found to have an effect on individual health outcomes, even when controlled for important individual-level variables such as income, education, age, and gender. The effect of income inequality on health may not be immediate and may, in fact, have a substantial lag time between exposure to inequality and eventual health outcome. We used the 2006 American Community Survey to examine the association of state-level income inequality and 2 types of physical disabilities. We used 6 different lag times, ranging between 0 and 25 years, on the total sample and on those who resided in their state of birth. Income inequality in 1986 had the strongest correlation with 2006 disability levels. Odds ratios were consistently 10% higher for those born in the same state compared with the total population.

A Falling Corona Model for the Anomalous Behavior of the Broad Emission Lines in NGC 5548

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mouyuan; Xue, Yongquan; Cai, Zhenyi; Guo, Hengxiao

2018-04-01

NGC 5548 has been intensively monitored by the AGN Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping collaboration. Approximately after half of the light curves, the correlation between the broad emission lines and the lag-corrected ultraviolet (UV) continua becomes weak. This anomalous behavior is accompanied by an increase of soft X-ray emission. We propose a simple model to understand this anomalous behavior, i.e., the corona might fall down, thereby increasing the covering fraction of the inner disk. Therefore, X-ray and extreme-UV emission suffer from spectral variations. The UV continua variations are driven by both X-ray and extreme-UV variations. Consequently, the spectral variability induced by the falling corona would dilute the correlation between the broad emission lines and the UV continua. Our model can explain many additional observational facts, including the dependence of the anomalous behavior on velocity and ionization energy. We also show that the time lag and correlation between the X-ray and the UV variations change as NGC 5548 displays the anomalous behavior. The time lag is dramatically longer than the expectation from disk reprocessing if the anomalous behavior is properly excluded. During the anomalous state, the time lag approaches the light-travel timescale of disk reprocessing albeit with a much weaker correlation. We speculate that the time lag in the normal state is caused by reprocessing of the broad line region gas. As NGC 5548 enters the abnormal state, the contribution of the broad line region gas is smaller; the time lag reflects disk reprocessing. We also discuss alternative scenarios.

A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.

PubMed

Ehelepola, N D B; Ariyaratne, Kusalika; Buddhadasa, W M N P; Ratnayake, Sunil; Wickramasinghe, Malani

2015-09-24

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

Comparing lagged linear correlation, lagged regression, Granger causality, and vector autoregression for uncovering associations in EHR data.

PubMed

Levine, Matthew E; Albers, David J; Hripcsak, George

2016-01-01

Time series analysis methods have been shown to reveal clinical and biological associations in data collected in the electronic health record. We wish to develop reliable high-throughput methods for identifying adverse drug effects that are easy to implement and produce readily interpretable results. To move toward this goal, we used univariate and multivariate lagged regression models to investigate associations between twenty pairs of drug orders and laboratory measurements. Multivariate lagged regression models exhibited higher sensitivity and specificity than univariate lagged regression in the 20 examples, and incorporating autoregressive terms for labs and drugs produced more robust signals in cases of known associations among the 20 example pairings. Moreover, including inpatient admission terms in the model attenuated the signals for some cases of unlikely associations, demonstrating how multivariate lagged regression models' explicit handling of context-based variables can provide a simple way to probe for health-care processes that confound analyses of EHR data.

Analysis of correlations and search for evidence of deterministic chaos in rhythmic motor control by the human brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Sean; Eykholt, R.; Thaut, Michael H.

2000-08-01

We investigate rhythmic finger tapping in both the presence and the absence of a metronome. We examine both the time intervals between taps and the time lags between the stimulus tones from the metronome and the response taps by the subject. We analyze the correlations in these data sets, and we search for evidence of deterministic chaos, as opposed to randomness, in the fluctuations.

Quantifying the time lag between organic matter production and export in the surface ocean: Implications for estimates of export efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stange, P.; Bach, L. T.; Le Moigne, F. A. C.; Taucher, J.; Boxhammer, T.; Riebesell, U.

2017-01-01

The ocean's potential to export carbon to depth partly depends on the fraction of primary production (PP) sinking out of the euphotic zone (i.e., the e-ratio). Measurements of PP and export flux are often performed simultaneously in the field, although there is a temporal delay between those parameters. Thus, resulting e-ratio estimates often incorrectly assume an instantaneous downward export of PP to export flux. Evaluating results from four mesocosm studies, we find that peaks in organic matter sedimentation lag chlorophyll a peaks by 2 to 15 days. We discuss the implications of these time lags (TLs) for current e-ratio estimates and evaluate potential controls of TL. Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between TL and the duration of chlorophyll a buildup, indicating a dependency of TL on plankton food web dynamics. This study is one step further toward time-corrected e-ratio estimates.

Temporal Responses of NDVI to Climate Factors in Different Climatic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zare, H.

2015-12-01

The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to investigate the impact of climate factors on vegetation changes. However, a few studies have concentrated on comparing the relationship of climate factors and vegetation in different climatic regions. To enhance the understanding of these relationship, a temporal analysis was carried out on time series of 16-day NDVI from MODIS (2000-2014) during the growing season in ten protected areas of different regions of Iran. The correlation analyses between climate factors and NDVI was classified into two sub-periods. First from February to April and second from May to September. In the first sub-period, NDVI was more correlated to temperature than precipitation, all the areas had positive correlation with temperature. Slope of regression in arid region was less than others. In contrast, precipitation had different impact on NDVI among the locations from February to April. The negative correlation was found between precipitation and woody lands (humid regions), whereas precipitation in Bafgh and Turan in which annual plants are dominant (arid regions), had positive impact on NDVI. In the second sub-period, temperature showed negative significant influence on NDVI; however, the slope of regression was not identical across the locations. Woody lands had more strong correlation with temperature. NDVI sensitivity to temperature had a time lag of 30 days in most of areas, whereas arid regions did not show time lag. Positive correlation was found between precipitation and NDVI during warm period in all the locations. The areas covered by perennial plant had 1-2 months lag to respond to precipitation. Overall, no significant trend in NDVI changes was shown during the study period. We concluded that NDVI sensitivity to climate factors relies on vegetation type and time of year.

Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

Distinctive time-lagged resting-state networks revealed by simultaneous EEG-fMRI.

PubMed

Feige, Bernd; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Kiemen, Andrea; Bosch, Oliver G; Tebartz van Elst, Ludger; Hennig, Jürgen; Seifritz, Erich; Riemann, Dieter

2017-01-15

Functional activation as evidenced by blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) functional MRI changes or event-related EEG is known to closely follow patterns of stimulation or self-paced action. Any lags are compatible with axonal conduction velocities and neural integration times. The important analysis of resting state networks is generally based on the assumption that these principles also hold for spontaneous fluctuations in brain activity. Previous observations using simultaneous EEG and fMRI indicate that slower processes, with delays in the seconds range, determine at least part of the relationship between spontaneous EEG and fMRI. To assess this relationship systematically, we used deconvolution analysis of EEG-fMRI during the resting state, assessing the relationship between EEG frequency bands and fMRI BOLD across the whole brain while allowing for time lags of up to 10.5s. Cluster analysis, identifying similar BOLD time courses in relation to EEG band power peaks, showed a clear segregation of functional subsystems of the brain. Our analysis shows that fMRI BOLD increases commonly precede EEG power increases by seconds. Most zero-lag correlations, on the other hand, were negative. This indicates two main distinct neuromodulatory mechanisms: an "idling" mechanism of simultaneous electric and metabolic network anticorrelation and a "regulatory" mechanism in which metabolic network activity precedes increased EEG power by some seconds. This has to be taken into consideration in further studies which address the causal and functional relationship of metabolic and electric brain activity patterns. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time Lags between Exanthematous Illness Attributed to Zika Virus, Guillain-Barré Syndrome, and Microcephaly, Salvador, Brazil

PubMed Central

Paploski, Igor A.D.; Prates, Ana Paula P.B.; Cardoso, Cristiane W.; Kikuti, Mariana; Silva, Monaise M. O.; Waller, Lance A.; Reis, Mitermayer G.; Kitron, Uriel

2016-01-01

Zika virus infection emerged as a public health emergency after increasing evidence for its association with neurologic disorders and congenital malformations. In Salvador, Brazil, outbreaks of acute exanthematous illness (AEI) attributed to Zika virus, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), and microcephaly occurred in 2015. We investigated temporal correlations and time lags between these outbreaks to identify a common link between them by using epidemic curves and time series cross-correlations. Number of GBS cases peaked after a lag of 5–9 weeks from the AEI peak. Number of suspected cases of microcephaly peaked after a lag of 30–33 weeks from the AEI peak, which corresponded to time of potential infections of pregnant mothers during the first trimester. These findings support the association of GBS and microcephaly with Zika virus infection and provide evidence for a temporal relationship between timing of arboviral infection of pregnant women during the first trimester and birth outcome. PMID:27144515

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Biela, Vanessa R.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Moulton, L. L.

2011-01-01

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r2 = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r2 = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels.

Using the Convergent Cross Mapping method to test causality between Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutowska, Dorota; Piskozub, Jacek

2017-04-01

There is a vast literature body on the climate indices and processes they represent. A large part of it deals with "teleconnections" or causal relations between them. However until recently time lagged correlations was the best tool of studying causation. However no correlation (even lagged) proves causation. We use a recently developed method of studying casual relations between short time series, Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), to search for causation between the atmospheric (AO and NAO) and oceanic (AMO) indices. The version we have chosen (available as an R language package rEDM) allows for comparing time series with time lags. This work builds on previous one, showing with time-lagged correlations that AO/NAO precedes AMO by about 15 years and at the same time is preceded by AMO (but with an inverted sign) also by the same amount of time. This behaviour is identical to the relationship of a sine and cosine with the same period. This may suggest that the multidecadal oscillatory parts of the atmospheric and oceanic indices represent the same global-scale set of processes. In other words they may be symptoms of the same oscillation. The aim of present study is to test this hypothesis with a tool created specially for discovering causal relationships in dynamic systems.

Drought prediction using co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system, validation, and uncertainty analysis (case study: Birjand, Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Memarian, Hadi; Pourreza Bilondi, Mohsen; Rezaei, Majid

2016-08-01

This work aims to assess the capability of co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) for drought forecasting of Birjand, Iran through the combination of global climatic signals with rainfall and lagged values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) index. Using stepwise regression and correlation analyses, the signals NINO 1 + 2, NINO 3, Multivariate Enso Index, Tropical Southern Atlantic index, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index, and NINO 3.4 were recognized as the effective signals on the drought event in Birjand. Based on the results from stepwise regression analysis and regarding the processor limitations, eight models were extracted for further processing by CANFIS. The metrics P-factor and D-factor were utilized for uncertainty analysis, based on the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm. Sensitivity analysis showed that for all models, NINO indices and rainfall variable had the largest impact on network performance. In model 4 (as the model with the lowest error during training and testing processes), NINO 1 + 2(t-5) with an average sensitivity of 0.7 showed the highest impact on network performance. Next, the variables rainfall, NINO 1 + 2(t), and NINO 3(t-6) with the average sensitivity of 0.59, 0.28, and 0.28, respectively, could have the highest effect on network performance. The findings based on network performance metrics indicated that the global indices with a time lag represented a better correlation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Uncertainty analysis of the model 4 demonstrated that 68 % of the observed data were bracketed by the 95PPU and D-Factor value (0.79) was also within a reasonable range. Therefore, the fourth model with a combination of the input variables NINO 1 + 2 (with 5 months of lag and without any lag), monthly rainfall, and NINO 3 (with 6 months of lag) and correlation coefficient of 0.903 (between observed and simulated SPI) was selected as the most accurate model for drought forecasting using CANFIS in the climatic region of Birjand.

A new correlation coefficient for bivariate time-series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdem, Orhan; Ceyhan, Elvan; Varli, Yusuf

2014-11-01

The correlation in time series has received considerable attention in the literature. Its use has attained an important role in the social sciences and finance. For example, pair trading in finance is concerned with the correlation between stock prices, returns, etc. In general, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is employed in these areas although it has many underlying assumptions which restrict its use. Here, we introduce a new correlation coefficient which takes into account the lag difference of data points. We investigate the properties of this new correlation coefficient. We demonstrate that it is more appropriate for showing the direction of the covariation of the two variables over time. We also compare the performance of the new correlation coefficient with Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) via simulated examples.

A Statistical Reappraisal in the Relationship between Global and Greek Seismic Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liritzis, I.; Diagourtas, D.; Makropoulos, C.

1995-01-01

For the period 1917 1987, Greek seismic activity exhibits a very significant positive correlation to the preceding global activity with a time-lag of 15 years. It seems that all Greece and the two characteristic areas in which we have separated it (Greece without Arc, and the area of the Greek seismic Arc), follow the global seismic activity but with a time-shift of 15 years. Moreover, it seems to exist an intrinsic interaction mechanism between the Greek seismic arc and the rest of Greece, which may be deduced by their different behavior exhibited when they are correlated with the global activity, as well as from the correlation between themselves, where a very significant positive correlation has been found with a time-lag of 3 years, for Greece without arc preceding. A quasi-periodic term of 30-yrs is also observed in these detailed four seismic time-series. The cross-correlation analysis of seismic time-series, as shown, is served as a powerful tool to clarify the complicated space-time pattern of the world wide mosaic of tectonic plate motions. The implications of spring-block model of tectonic plates interaction is invoked, considering the earth's rotation rate changes as their triggering agent. Particular emphasis is given to the potential of such studies in earthquake prediction efforts from local or regional scales to a global scale and vice-versa.

Nanoflare vs Footpoint Heating : Observational Signatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winebarger, Amy; Alexander, Caroline; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Downs, Cooper

2015-01-01

Time lag analysis shows very long time lags between all channel pairs. Impulsive heating cannot address these long time lags. 3D Simulations of footpoint heating shows a similar pattern of time lags (magnitude and distribution) to observations. Time lags and relative peak intensities may be able to differentiate between TNE and impulsive heating solutions. Adding a high temperature channel (like XRT Be-­thin) may improve diagnostics.

Modeling the Kinetics of Root Gravireaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrachuk, Alexander V.; Starkov, Vyacheslav N.

2011-02-01

The known "sun-flower equation" (SFE), which was originally proposed to model root circumnutating, was used to describe the simplest tip root graviresponse. Two forms of the SFE (integro-differential and differential-delayed) were solved, analyzed and compared with each other. The numerical solutions of these equations were found to be matching with arbitrary accuracy. The analysis of the solutions focused on time-lag effects on the kinetics of tip root bending. The results of the modeling are in good correlation with an experiment at the initial stages of root tips graviresponse. Further development of the model calls for its systematic comparison with some specially designed experiments, which would include measuring the kinetics of root tip bending before gravistimulation over the period of time longer than the time lag.

Dynamic correlations at different time-scales with empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, T.; Aste, Tomaso

2018-07-01

We introduce a simple approach which combines Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Pearson's cross-correlations over rolling windows to quantify dynamic dependency at different time scales. The EMD is a tool to separate time series into implicit components which oscillate at different time-scales. We apply this decomposition to intraday time series of the following three financial indices: the S&P 500 (USA), the IPC (Mexico) and the VIX (volatility index USA), obtaining time-varying multidimensional cross-correlations at different time-scales. The correlations computed over a rolling window are compared across the three indices, across the components at different time-scales and across different time lags. We uncover a rich heterogeneity of interactions, which depends on the time-scale and has important lead-lag relations that could have practical use for portfolio management, risk estimation and investment decisions.

X-ray time lags in PG 1211+143

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobban, A. P.; Vaughan, S.; Pounds, K.; Reeves, J. N.

2018-05-01

We investigate the X-ray time lags of a recent ˜630 ks XMM-Newton observation of PG 1211+143. We find well-correlated variations across the XMM-Newton EPIC bandpass, with the first detection of a hard lag in this source with a mean time delay of up to ˜3 ks at the lowest frequencies. We find that the energy-dependence of the low-frequency hard lag scales approximately linearly with log(E) when averaged over all orbits, consistent with the propagating fluctuations model. However, we find that the low-frequency lag behaviour becomes more complex on time-scales longer than a single orbit, suggestive of additional modes of variability. We also detect a high-frequency soft lag at ˜10-4 Hz with the magnitude of the delay peaking at ≲ 0.8 ks, consistent with previous observations, which we discuss in terms of small-scale reverberation.

Solar-induced 27-day variations of polar mesospheric clouds from the AIM SOFIE and CIPS experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurairajah, Brentha; Thomas, Gary E.; von Savigny, Christian; Snow, Martin; Hervig, Mark E.; Bailey, Scott M.; Randall, Cora E.

2017-09-01

Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) observations from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) and the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) experiment are used to investigate the response of PMCs to forcing associated with the 27-day solar rotation. We quantify the PMC response in terms of sensitivity values. Analysis of PMC data from 14 seasons indicate a large seasonal variability in sensitivity with both correlation and anti-correlation between PMC properties and Lyman-alpha irradiance for individual seasons. However, a superposed epoch analysis reveals the expected anti-correlation between variations in solar Lyman-alpha and variations in PMC ice water content, albedo, and frequency of occurrence. The PMC height is found to significantly correlate with 27-day variations in solar Lyman-alpha in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but not in the Northern hemisphere (NH). Depending on instrument and property, the time lag between variations in PMC properties and solar Lyman-alpha ranges from 0 to 3 days in the NH and from 6 to 7 days in the SH. These hemispheric differences in PMC height and time lag are not understood, but it is speculated that they result from dynamical forcing that is controlled by the 27-day solar cycle.

Interpretation of link fluctuations in climate networks during El Niño periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, E. A.; Paczuski, M.; Davidsen, J.

2013-05-01

Recent work has shown that the topologies of functional climate networks are sensitive to El Niño events. One important interpretation of the findings was that parts of the globe act in correlated relationships which become weaker, on average, during El Niño periods (this was shown using monthly averaged data where no time lag is required, and with daily averaged data where time lags were utilized). In contrast to this, we show that El Niño periods actually exhibit higher correlations than “Normal” climate conditions, while typically having lower correlations than La Niña periods. We also show that it is crucial to establish the sensitivity and the robustness of a given method used to extract functional climate networks —parameters such as time lags can significantly influence and even totally alter the outcome.

Modified DTW for a quantitative estimation of the similarity between rainfall time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djallel Dilmi, Mohamed; Barthès, Laurent; Mallet, Cécile; Chazottes, Aymeric

2017-04-01

The Precipitations are due to complex meteorological phenomenon and can be described as intermittent process. The spatial and temporal variability of this phenomenon is significant and covers large scales. To analyze and model this variability and / or structure, several studies use a network of rain gauges providing several time series of precipitation measurements. To compare these different time series, the authors compute for each time series some parameters (PDF, rain peak intensity, occurrence, amount, duration, intensity …). However, and despite the calculation of these parameters, the comparison of the parameters between two series of measurements remains qualitative. Due to the advection processes, when different sensors of an observation network measure precipitation time series identical in terms of intermitency or intensities, there is a time lag between the different measured series. Analyzing and extracting relevant information on physical phenomena from these precipitation time series implies the development of automatic analytical methods capable of comparing two time series of precipitation measured by different sensors or at two different locations and thus quantifying the difference / similarity. The limits of the Euclidean distance to measure the similarity between the time series of precipitation have been well demonstrated and explained (eg the Euclidian distance is indeed very sensitive to the effects of phase shift : between two identical but slightly shifted time series, this distance is not negligible). To quantify and analysis these time lag, the correlation functions are well established, normalized and commonly used to measure the spatial dependences that are required by many applications. However, authors generally observed that there is always a considerable scatter of the inter-rain gauge correlation coefficients obtained from the individual pairs of rain gauges. Because of a substantial dispersion of estimated time lag, the interpretation of this inter-correlation is not straightforward. We propose here to use an improvement of the Euclidian distance which integrates the global complexity of the rainfall series. The Dynamic Time Wrapping (DTW) used in speech recognition allows matching two time series instantly different and provide the most probable time lag. However, the original formulation of the DTW suffers from some limitations. In particular, it is not adequate to the rain intermittency. In this study we present an adaptation of the DTW for the analysis of rainfall time series : we used time series from the "Météo France" rain gauge network observed between January 1st, 2007 and December 31st, 2015 on 25 stations located in the Île de France area. Then we analyze the results (eg. The distance, the relationship between the time lag detected by our methods and others measured parameters like speed and direction of the wind…) to show the ability of the proposed similarity to provide usefull information on the rain structure. The possibility of using this measure of similarity to define a quality indicator of a sensor integrated into an observation network is also envisaged.

Correlating the properties of different carioca bean cultivars (Phaseolus vulgaris) with their hydration kinetics.

PubMed

Miano, Alberto Claudio; Saldaña, Erick; Campestrini, Luciano Henrique; Chiorato, Alisson Fernando; Augusto, Pedro Esteves Duarte

2018-05-01

This work explained how the intrinsic properties of beans affects the hydration process. For that, different properties of six cultivars of carioca bean (a variety of common bean) were analyzed to verify the correlation with their hydration kinetics characteristics (hydration rate, lag phase time and equilibrium moisture content), using a Multiple Factorial Analysis (MFA): the chemical composition (starch, protein, lipids, minerals (Mg, P, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn), functional groups from the seed coat analyzed by FT-IR), physical properties (size, 1000 grain weight, seed coat thickness, energy to penetrate the bean) and microstructure. Only few properties correlated with the hydration kinetics characteristics of the studied bean, comprising both composition and structure. The fat content, potassium content, specific surface, and the protein to lipids ratio correlated with the lag phase time, which is related with the seed coat impermeability to water. The necessary energy to perforate the seed coat correlated negatively with the hydration rate. It was concluded that the hydration of beans process is a complex phenomenon and that despite being from the same variety of legume, any change due to agronomic enhancement may affect their hydration process kinetics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical Creativity and Mathematical Aptitude: A Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tyagi, Tarun Kumar

2016-01-01

Cross-lagged panel correlation (CLPC) analysis has been used to identify causal relationships between mathematical creativity and mathematical aptitude. For this study, 480 8th standard students were selected through a random cluster technique from 9 intermediate and high schools of Varanasi, India. Mathematical creativity and mathematical…

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Von Biela, V.R.; Zimmerman, C.E.; Moulton, L.L.

2011-01-01

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0??29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r2 = 0??14-0??31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r2 = 0??13-0??50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles. No claim to original US government works.

Is leisure time availability associated with more or less severe daily stressors? An examination using eight-day diary data

PubMed Central

Qian, Xinyi Lisa; Yarnal, Careen M.; Almeida, David M.

2014-01-01

The stress suppressing model proposes that sufficient resources reduce stress. The stress exposure model suggests that certain factors expose individuals to more stress. The current study tested these two models by assessing the within-person lagging effect of leisure time on perceived severity of daily stressors. Analyzing eight-day diary data (N=2,022), we found that having more leisure time than usual on a day reduced perceived severity of daily stressors the next day and that the decrease in severity became larger with further increase in leisure time. Additionally, the effect is much stronger among busy individuals who usually had little leisure time. The findings demonstrated an accelerated suppressing effect that differed between-person, and the lagging effect affords stronger implication for causality than correlational analysis. PMID:24563564

Time series analyses of hydrological parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Sang Yong; Senapathi, Venkatramanan; Sekar, Selvam; Kim, Tae Hyung

2018-02-01

Monitoring and time-series analysis of the hydrological parameters electrical conductivity (EC), water pressure, precipitation and tide were carried out, to understand the characteristics of the parameter variations and their correlations at a coastal area in Busan, South Korea. The monitoring data were collected at a sharp interface between freshwater and saline water at the depth of 25 m below ground. Two well-logging profiles showed that seawater intrusion has largely expanded (progressed inland), and has greatly affected the groundwater quality in a coastal aquifer of tuffaceous sedimentary rock over a 9-year period. According to the time series analyses, the periodograms of the hydrological parameters present very similar trends to the power spectral densities (PSD) of the hydrological parameters. Autocorrelation functions (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) of the hydrological parameters were produced to evaluate their self-correlations. The ACFs of all hydrologic parameters showed very good correlation over the entire time lag, but the PACF revealed that the correlations were good only at time lag 1. Crosscorrelation functions (CCF) were used to evaluate the correlations between the hydrological parameters and the characteristics of seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer system. The CCFs showed that EC had a close relationship with water pressure and precipitation rather than tide. The CCFs of water pressure with tide and precipitation were in inverse proportion, and the CCF of water pressure with precipitation was larger than that with tide.

Understanding Number Sequences Leads to Understanding Mathematics Concepts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pasnak, Robert; Schmerold, Katrina Lea; Robinson, Melissa Fetterer; Gadzichowski, K. Marinka; Bock, Allison M.; O'Brien, Sarah Eva; Kidd, Julie K.; Gallington, Deb A.

2016-01-01

Ninety-six first grade students in an urban school system were tested in October and May on reading, mathematics, and their understanding of sequences of letters and numbers. A time lag analysis was subsequently conducted. In such analyses, cross-correlations between the first measurement of one variable and the second measurement of another are…

Cross-Correlation Asymmetries and Causal Relationships between Stock and Market Risk

PubMed Central

Borysov, Stanislav S.; Balatsky, Alexander V.

2014-01-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994–2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa. PMID:25162697

Cross-correlation asymmetries and causal relationships between stock and market risk.

PubMed

Borysov, Stanislav S; Balatsky, Alexander V

2014-01-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.

Effect of lag time distribution on the lag phase of bacterial growth - a Monte Carlo analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study is to use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effect of lag time distribution of individual bacterial cells incubated under isothermal conditions on the development of lag phase. The growth of bacterial cells of the same initial concentration and mean lag phase durati...

High-resolution correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, D. J.

2007-09-01

In the basic correlation process a sequence of time-lag-indexed correlation coefficients are computed as the inner or dot product of segments of two signals. The time-lag(s) for which the magnitude of the correlation coefficient sequence is maximized is the estimated relative time delay of the two signals. For discrete sampled signals, the delay estimated in this manner is quantized with the same relative accuracy as the clock used in sampling the signals. In addition, the correlation coefficients are real if the input signals are real. There have been many methods proposed to estimate signal delay to more accuracy than the sample interval of the digitizer clock, with some success. These methods include interpolation of the correlation coefficients, estimation of the signal delay from the group delay function, and beam forming techniques, such as the MUSIC algorithm. For spectral estimation, techniques based on phase differentiation have been popular, but these techniques have apparently not been applied to the correlation problem . We propose a phase based delay estimation method (PBDEM) based on the phase of the correlation function that provides a significant improvement of the accuracy of time delay estimation. In the process, the standard correlation function is first calculated. A time lag error function is then calculated from the correlation phase and is used to interpolate the correlation function. The signal delay is shown to be accurately estimated as the zero crossing of the correlation phase near the index of the peak correlation magnitude. This process is nearly as fast as the conventional correlation function on which it is based. For real valued signals, a simple modification is provided, which results in the same correlation accuracy as is obtained for complex valued signals.

Cross correlation and time-lag between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra-Porta, D.

2018-07-01

In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or co-variability between daily terrestrial cosmic-ray intensity and three parameters of the solar corona evolution, i.e., the number of sunspots and flare index observed in the solar corona and the Ap index for regular magnetic field variations caused by regular solar radiation changes. The study is made for a period including three solar cycles starting with cycle 21 (year 1976) and ending on cycle 23 (year 2008). A cross-correlation analysis was used to establish patterns and dependence of the variables. This study focused on the time lag calculation for these variables and found a maximum of negative correlation over CC1≈ 0.85, CC2≈ 0.75 and CC3≈ 0.63 with an estimation of 181, 156 and 2 days of deviation between maximum/minimum of peaks for the intensity of cosmic rays related with sunspot number, flare index and Ap index regression, respectively.

Soil- and crop-dependent variation in correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices as predicted by the SWAP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Azin; Cloke, Hannah; Verhoef, Anne

2017-04-01

Droughts have a devastating impact on agriculture and economy. The risk of more frequent and more severe droughts is increasing due to global warming and certain anthropogenic activities. At the same time, the global population continues to rise and the need for sustainable food production is becoming more and more pressing. In light of this, drought prediction can be of great value; in the context of early warning, preparedness and mitigation of drought impacts. Prediction of meteorological drought is associated with uncertainties around precipitation variability. As meteorological drought propagates, it can transform into agricultural drought. Determination of the maximum correlation lag between precipitation and agricultural drought indices can be useful for prediction of agricultural drought. However, the influence of soil and crop type on the lag needs to be considered, which we explored using a 1-D Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer model (SWAP (http://www.swap.alterra.nl/), with the following configurations, all forced with ERA-Interim weather data (1979 to 2014): i) different crop types in the UK; ii) three generic soil types (clay, loam and sand) were considered. A Sobol sensitivity analysis was carried out (perturbing the SWAP model van Genuchten soil hydraulic parameters) to study the effect of soil type uncertainty on the water balance variables. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, a few variations of each soil type were selected. Agricultural drought indices including Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) were calculated. The maximum correlation lag between precipitation and these drought indices was calculated, and analysed in the context of crop and soil model parameters. The findings of this research can be useful to UK farming, by guiding government bodies such as the Environment Agency when issuing drought warnings and implementing drought measures.

Simultaneous Monitoring of X-Ray and Radio Variability in Sagittarius A*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capellupo, Daniel M.; Haggard, Daryl; Choux, Nicolas; Baganoff, Fred; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Cotton, Bill; Degenaar, Nathalie; Dexter, Jason; Falcke, Heino; Fragile, P. Chris; Heinke, Craig O.; Law, Casey J.; Markoff, Sera; Neilsen, Joey; Ponti, Gabriele; Rea, Nanda; Yusef-Zadeh, Farhad

2017-08-01

Monitoring of Sagittarius A* from X-ray to radio wavelengths has revealed structured variability—including X-ray flares—but it is challenging to establish correlations between them. Most studies have focused on variability in the X-ray and infrared, where variations are often simultaneous, and because long time series at submillimeter and radio wavelengths are limited. Previous work on submillimeter and radio variability hints at a lag between X-ray flares and their candidate submillimeter or radio counterparts, with the long wavelength data lagging the X-ray. However, there is only one published time lag between an X-ray flare and a possible radio counterpart. Here we report nine contemporaneous X-ray and radio observations of Sgr A*. We detect significant radio variability peaking ≳ 176 minutes after the brightest X-ray flare ever detected from Sgr A*. We also report other potentially associated X-ray and radio variability, with the radio peaks appearing ≲ 80 minutes after these weaker X-ray flares. Taken at face value, these results suggest that stronger X-ray flares lead to longer time lags in the radio. However, we also test the possibility that the variability at X-ray and radio wavelengths is not temporally correlated. We cross-correlate data from mismatched X-ray and radio epochs and obtain comparable correlations to the matched data. Hence, we find no overall statistical evidence that X-ray flares and radio variability are correlated, underscoring a need for more simultaneous, long duration X-ray-radio monitoring of Sgr A*.

Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique.

PubMed

Ferrão, João Luís; Mendes, Jorge M; Painho, Marco

2017-05-25

Mozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication. Time series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model. Between 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1) 52 , and a regression model for a Box-Cox transformed number of malaria cases with lags 1, 2 and 3 of weekly malaria cases and lags 6 and 7 of weekly mean temperature and lags 12 of precipitation were fitted. Although, both produced similar widths for prediction intervals, the last was able to anticipate malaria outbreak more accurately. The Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the prediction of malaria cases, this can be used for designing public precision health measures. The model can be used for planning specific measures for Chimoio municipality. Prospective and multidisciplinary research involving researchers from different fields is welcomed to improve the effect of climatic factors and other factors in malaria cases.

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences.

PubMed

von Biela, V R; Zimmerman, C E; Moulton, L L

2011-01-01

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r² = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r² = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r² = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles. No claim to original US government works.

Free and Forced Rossby Waves in the Western South China Sea Inferred from Jason-1 Satellite Altimetry Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiangyu; Xie, Qiang; He, Zhigang; Wang, Dongxiao

2008-01-01

Data from a subsurface mooring deployed in the western South China Sea shows clear intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) at the period of 40∼70 days. Analysis of remotely-sensed sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in the same area indicates that these ISO signals propagate both eastward and westward. Time-longitude diagrams of ISO signals in SSH anomalies and wind-stress curl indicate that the eastward propagating SSH anomalies is forced by wind-stress curl. This is also confirmed by lag correlation between SSH anomalies and the wind-stress-curl index (wind stress curl averaged over 109.5°E -115°E and 12°N -13.5°N). Lag correlation of SSH anomaly suggests that the westward propagating signals are free Rossby waves. PMID:27879897

Synchronization properties of coupled chaotic neurons: The role of random shared input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Rupesh; Bilal, Shakir; Ramaswamy, Ram

2016-06-01

Spike-time correlations of neighbouring neurons depend on their intrinsic firing properties as well as on the inputs they share. Studies have shown that periodically firing neurons, when subjected to random shared input, exhibit asynchronicity. Here, we study the effect of random shared input on the synchronization of weakly coupled chaotic neurons. The cases of so-called electrical and chemical coupling are both considered, and we observe a wide range of synchronization behaviour. When subjected to identical shared random input, there is a decrease in the threshold coupling strength needed for chaotic neurons to synchronize in-phase. The system also supports lag-synchronous states, and for these, we find that shared input can cause desynchronization. We carry out a master stability function analysis for a network of such neurons and show agreement with the numerical simulations. The contrasting role of shared random input for complete and lag synchronized neurons is useful in understanding spike-time correlations observed in many areas of the brain.

Potential predictability of a Colombian river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

In this study the predictability of an important Colombian river (Cauca) has been analysed based on the use of climatic variables as potential predictors. Cauca River is considered one of the most important rivers of Colombia because its basin supports important productive activities related with the agriculture, such as the production of coffee or sugar. Potential relationships between the Cauca River seasonal streamflow anomalies and different climatic variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation (Pt), temperature over land (Tm) and soil water (Sw) have been analysed for the period 1949-2009. For this end, moving correlation analysis of 30 years have been carried out for lags from one to four seasons for the global SST, and from one to two seasons for South America Pt, Tm and Sw. Also, the stability of the significant correlations have been also studied, identifying the regions used as potential predictors of streamflow. Finally, in order to establish a prediction scheme based on the previous stable correlations, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the potential predictor regions has been carried out in order to obtain a representative time series for each predictor field. Significant and stable correlations between the seasonal streamflow and the tropical Pacific SST (El Niño region) are found for lags from one to four (one-year) season. Additionally, some regions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also show significant and stable correlations at different lags, highlighting the importance that exerts the Atlantic SST on the hydrology of Colombia. Also significant and stable correlations are found with the Pt, Tm and Sw for some regions over South America, at lags of one and two seasons. The prediction of Cauca seasonal streamflow based on this scheme shows an acceptable skill and represents a relative improvement compared with the predictability obtained using the teleconnection indices associated with El Niño. Keywords: Streamflow, predictability, Cauca, Colombia. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Frequency-phase analysis of resting-state functional MRI

PubMed Central

Goelman, Gadi; Dan, Rotem; Růžička, Filip; Bezdicek, Ondrej; Růžička, Evžen; Roth, Jan; Vymazal, Josef; Jech, Robert

2017-01-01

We describe an analysis method that characterizes the correlation between coupled time-series functions by their frequencies and phases. It provides a unified framework for simultaneous assessment of frequency and latency of a coupled time-series. The analysis is demonstrated on resting-state functional MRI data of 34 healthy subjects. Interactions between fMRI time-series are represented by cross-correlation (with time-lag) functions. A general linear model is used on the cross-correlation functions to obtain the frequencies and phase-differences of the original time-series. We define symmetric, antisymmetric and asymmetric cross-correlation functions that correspond respectively to in-phase, 90° out-of-phase and any phase difference between a pair of time-series, where the last two were never introduced before. Seed maps of the motor system were calculated to demonstrate the strength and capabilities of the analysis. Unique types of functional connections, their dominant frequencies and phase-differences have been identified. The relation between phase-differences and time-delays is shown. The phase-differences are speculated to inform transfer-time and/or to reflect a difference in the hemodynamic response between regions that are modulated by neurotransmitters concentration. The analysis can be used with any coupled functions in many disciplines including electrophysiology, EEG or MEG in neuroscience. PMID:28272522

The Weighted-Average Lagged Ensemble.

PubMed

DelSole, T; Trenary, L; Tippett, M K

2017-11-01

A lagged ensemble is an ensemble of forecasts from the same model initialized at different times but verifying at the same time. The skill of a lagged ensemble mean can be improved by assigning weights to different forecasts in such a way as to maximize skill. If the forecasts are bias corrected, then an unbiased weighted lagged ensemble requires the weights to sum to one. Such a scheme is called a weighted-average lagged ensemble. In the limit of uncorrelated errors, the optimal weights are positive and decay monotonically with lead time, so that the least skillful forecasts have the least weight. In more realistic applications, the optimal weights do not always behave this way. This paper presents a series of analytic examples designed to illuminate conditions under which the weights of an optimal weighted-average lagged ensemble become negative or depend nonmonotonically on lead time. It is shown that negative weights are most likely to occur when the errors grow rapidly and are highly correlated across lead time. The weights are most likely to behave nonmonotonically when the mean square error is approximately constant over the range forecasts included in the lagged ensemble. An extreme example of the latter behavior is presented in which the optimal weights vanish everywhere except at the shortest and longest lead times.

Using nonlinear forecasting to learn the magnitude and phasing of time-varying sediment suspension in the surf zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.E.; Rubin, D.M.

1996-01-01

The time-dependent response of sediment suspension to flow velocity was explored by modeling field measurements collected in the surf zone during a large storm. Linear and nonlinear models were created and tested using flow velocity as input and suspended-sediment concentration as output. A sequence of past velocities (velocity history), as well as velocity from the same instant as the suspended-sediment concentration, was used as input; this velocity history length was allowed to vary. The models also allowed for a lag between input (instantaneous velocity or end of velocity sequence) and output (suspended-sediment concentration). Predictions of concentration from instantaneous velocity or instantaneous velocity raised to a power (up to 8) using linear models were poor (correlation coefficients between predicted and observed concentrations were less than 0.10). Allowing a lag between velocity and concentration improved linear models (correlation coefficient of 0.30), with optimum lag time increasing with elevation above the seabed (from 1.5 s at 13 cm to 8.5 s at 60 cm). These lags are largely due to the time for an observed flow event to effect the bed and mix sediment upward. Using a velocity history further improved linear models (correlation coefficient of 0.43). The best linear model used 12.5 s of velocity history (approximately one wave period) to predict concentration. Nonlinear models gave better predictions than linear models, and, as with linear models, nonlinear models using a velocity history performed better than models using only instantaneous velocity as input. Including a lag time between the velocity and concentration also improved the predictions. The best model (correlation coefficient of 0.58) used 3 s (approximately a quarter wave period) of the cross-shore velocity squared, starting at 4.5 s before the observed concentration, to predict concentration. Using a velocity history increases the performance of the models by specifying a more complete description of the dynamical forcing of the flow (including accelerations and wave phase and shape) responsible for sediment suspension. Incorporating such a velocity history and a lag time into the formulation of the forcing for time-dependent models for sediment suspension in the surf zone will greatly increase our ability to predict suspended-sediment transport.

A Race Against Time: Time Lags in Terrestrial-Aquatic Linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, N. B.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented decreases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition together with increases in agricultural N-use efficiency have led to decreases in net anthropogenic N inputs in many eastern U.S. and Canadian watersheds as well as in Europe. Despite such decreases, N concentrations in streams and rivers continue to increase, and problems of coastal eutrophication remain acute. Such a mismatch between N inputs and outputs can arise due to legacy N accumulation and subsequent lag times between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. In the present study, we quantified such lag times by pairing long-term N input trajectories with stream N concentration data in multiple watersheds in North America. Results show significant nonlinearity between N inputs and outputs, with a strong hysteresis effect indicative of decadal-scale lag times. Lag times were found to be negatively correlated with both tile drainage and watershed slope, with tile drainage being a dominant control in fall and watershed slope being significant during the spring snowmelt period. Quantification of such lags will be crucial to policy-makers as they struggle to set appropriate goals for water quality improvement in human-impacted watersheds.

Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gungle, B.; Krider, E.P.

2006-01-01

Relationships between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and surface rainfall have been examined in nine isolated, warm-season thunderstorms on the east coast of central Florida. CG flashes and the associated rain volumes were measured as a function of time in storm-centered reference frames that followed each storm over a network of rain gauges. Values of the storm-average rain volume per CG flash ranged from 0.70 ?? 104 to 6.4 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, with a mean (and standard deviation) of 2.6 ?? 104 ?? 2.1 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. Values of the rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.11 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash with a mean of 2.1 ?? 104 ?? 2.0 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. The lag-time between the peak CG flash rate and the peak rainfall rate (using 5 min bins), and the results of a lag correlation analysis, show that surface rainfall tends to follow the lightning (positive lag) by up to 20 min in six storms. In one storm the rainfall preceded the lightning by 5 min, and two storms had nonsignificant lags. Values of the lagged rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.43 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, and the mean was 1.9 ?? 104 ?? 1.7 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. For the five storms that produced 12 or more flashes and had significant lags, a plot of the optimum lag time versus the total number of CG flashes shows a linear trend (R2 = 0.56). The number of storms is limited, but the lag results do indicate that large storms tend to have longer lags. A linear fit to the lagged rain volume vs. the number of concurrent CG flashes has a slope of 1.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash (R2 = 0.83). We conclude that warm-season Florida thunderstorms produce a roughly constant rain volume per CG flash and that CG lightning can be used to estimate the location and intensity of convective rainfall in that weather regime. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Climate variables as predictors for seasonal forecast of dengue occurrence in Chennai, Tamil Nadu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subash Kumar, D. D.; Andimuthu, R.

2013-12-01

Background Dengue is a recently emerging vector borne diseases in Chennai. As per the WHO report in 2011 dengue is one of eight climate sensitive disease of this century. Objective Therefore an attempt has been made to explore the influence of climate parameters on dengue occurrence and use for forecasting. Methodology Time series analysis has been applied to predict the number of dengue cases in Chennai, a metropolitan city which is the capital of Tamil Nadu, India. Cross correlation of the climate variables with dengue cases revealed that the most influential parameters were monthly relative humidity, minimum temperature at 4 months lag and rainfall at one month lag (Table 1). However due to intercorrelation of relative humidity and rainfall was high and therefore for predictive purpose the rainfall at one month lag was used for the model development. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been applied to forecast the occurrence of dengue. Results and Discussion The best fit model was ARIMA (1,0,1). It was seen that the monthly minimum temperature at four months lag (β= 3.612, p = 0.02) and rainfall at one month lag (β= 0.032, p = 0.017) were associated with dengue occurrence and they had a very significant effect. Mean Relative Humidity had a directly significant positive correlation at 99% confidence level, but the lagged effect was not prominent. The model predicted dengue cases showed significantly high correlation of 0.814(Figure 1) with the observed cases. The RMSE of the model was 18.564 and MAE was 12.114. The model is limited by the scarcity of the dataset. Inclusion of socioeconomic conditions and population offset are further needed to be incorporated for effective results. Conclusion Thus it could be claimed that the change in climatic parameters is definitely influential in increasing the number of dengue occurrence in Chennai. The climate variables therefore can be used for seasonal forecasting of dengue with rise in minimum temperature and rainfall at a city level. Table 1. Cross correlation of climate variables with dengue cases in Chennai ** p<0.01,*p<0.05

Development of a novel drug delivery system, time-controlled explosion system (TES). IV. In vivo drug release behavior.

PubMed

Ueda, S; Ibuki, R; Kawamura, A; Murata, S; Takahashi, T; Kimura, S; Hata, T

1994-01-01

Time-Controlled Explosion System (TES) has the time-controlled drug release property with a pre-designed lag time. The drug release from the system is initiated by destruction of the membrane. In this study, metoprolol tartrate was used as a model drug. After five types of TES with different in vitro lag times were orally administrated to dogs, plasma metoprolol concentration was monitored. There existed a good correlation between in vitro and in vivo lag time, while the extent of absorbed metoprolol decreased with prolongation of lag time. Next, the in vivo drug release behavior was directly investigated using five different colored TES with a lag time of two hours. Each TES was consecutively administrated to the fasted dogs at predetermined intervals. The amount of metoprolol released was monitored by recovering the administered TES from the gastrointestinal trace. The in vivo release profile corresponded with the in vitro one. It is demonstrated that TES can release the drug in in vivo conditions similarly to in vitro. Based on these results, the decrease of the absorption is suggested to be caused by increased hepatic first-pass metabolism of the drug due to the retarded release rate with longer lag time.

Parent Involvement and Science Achievement during Students' Transition Years from Elementary School to Middle School: A Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis Using ECLS-K

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sun, Letao

2015-01-01

Transitioning from elementary school to middle school can be a difficult time for many adolescents. It is a period often correlated with a decline in students' academic achievement, perceptions of performance, potential, and value in schooling. Research has shown evidence that parents' involvement in their children's education significantly…

Failure of the precedence effect with a noise-band vocoder

PubMed Central

Seeber, Bernhard U.; Hafter, Ervin R.

2011-01-01

The precedence effect (PE) describes the ability to localize a direct, leading sound correctly when its delayed copy (lag) is present, though not separately audible. The relative contribution of binaural cues in the temporal fine structure (TFS) of lead–lag signals was compared to that of interaural level differences (ILDs) and interaural time differences (ITDs) carried in the envelope. In a localization dominance paradigm participants indicated the spatial location of lead–lag stimuli processed with a binaural noise-band vocoder whose noise carriers introduced random TFS. The PE appeared for noise bursts of 10 ms duration, indicating dominance of envelope information. However, for three test words the PE often failed even at short lead–lag delays, producing two images, one toward the lead and one toward the lag. When interaural correlation in the carrier was increased, the images appeared more centered, but often remained split. Although previous studies suggest dominance of TFS cues, no image is lateralized in accord with the ITD in the TFS. An interpretation in the context of auditory scene analysis is proposed: By replacing the TFS with that of noise the auditory system loses the ability to fuse lead and lag into one object, and thus to show the PE. PMID:21428515

Spectral Processing Analysis System (SPANS).

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

Approximately 750 pounds Temperature Range: 60 - 80 degrees Farenheit Humidity: 40 - 70 percent (relative) Duty Cycle: Continuous Power Requirements: 5 wire, 3...displayed per display frame, local or absolute scaling, number of display points per line and waveform av- A eraging. A typical display is shown in Figure 3...the waveform. In the case of white noise, a high degree of correlation is found at zero lag only with the remaining lags showing little correlation

SDSS IV MaNGA—Rotation Velocity Lags in the Extraplanar Ionized Gas from MaNGA Observations of Edge-on Galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bizyaev, D.; Pan, K.; Brinkmann, J.

2017-04-20

We present a study of the kinematics of the extraplanar ionized gas around several dozen galaxies observed by the Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We considered a sample of 67 edge-on galaxies out of more than 1400 extragalactic targets observed by MaNGA, in which we found 25 galaxies (or 37%) with regular lagging of the rotation curve at large distances from the galactic midplane. We model the observed H α emission velocity fields in the galaxies, taking projection effects and a simple model for the dust extinction into account. We show that the verticalmore » lag of the rotation curve is necessary in the modeling, and estimate the lag amplitude in the galaxies. We find no correlation between the lag and the star formation rate in the galaxies. At the same time, we report a correlation between the lag and the galactic stellar mass, central stellar velocity dispersion, and axial ratio of the light distribution. These correlations suggest a possible higher ratio of infalling-to-local gas in early-type disk galaxies or a connection between lags and the possible presence of hot gaseous halos, which may be more prevalent in more massive galaxies. These results again demonstrate that observations of extraplanar gas can serve as a potential probe for accretion of gas.« less

SDSS IV MaNGA—Rotation Velocity Lags in the Extraplanar Ionized Gas from MaNGA Observations of Edge-on Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizyaev, D.; Walterbos, R. A. M.; Yoachim, P.; Riffel, R. A.; Fernández-Trincado, J. G.; Pan, K.; Diamond-Stanic, A. M.; Jones, A.; Thomas, D.; Cleary, J.; Brinkmann, J.

2017-04-01

We present a study of the kinematics of the extraplanar ionized gas around several dozen galaxies observed by the Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at the Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. We considered a sample of 67 edge-on galaxies out of more than 1400 extragalactic targets observed by MaNGA, in which we found 25 galaxies (or 37%) with regular lagging of the rotation curve at large distances from the galactic midplane. We model the observed Hα emission velocity fields in the galaxies, taking projection effects and a simple model for the dust extinction into account. We show that the vertical lag of the rotation curve is necessary in the modeling, and estimate the lag amplitude in the galaxies. We find no correlation between the lag and the star formation rate in the galaxies. At the same time, we report a correlation between the lag and the galactic stellar mass, central stellar velocity dispersion, and axial ratio of the light distribution. These correlations suggest a possible higher ratio of infalling-to-local gas in early-type disk galaxies or a connection between lags and the possible presence of hot gaseous halos, which may be more prevalent in more massive galaxies. These results again demonstrate that observations of extraplanar gas can serve as a potential probe for accretion of gas.

Windowed cross-correlation and peak picking for the analysis of variability in the association between behavioral time series.

PubMed

Boker, Steven M; Xu, Minquan; Rotondo, Jennifer L; King, Kadijah

2002-09-01

Cross-correlation and most other longitudinal analyses assume that the association between 2 variables is stationary. Thus, a sample of occasions of measurement is expected to be representative of the association between variables regardless of the time of onset or number of occasions in the sample. The authors propose a method to analyze the association between 2 variables when the assumption of stationarity may not be warranted. The method results in estimates of both the strength of peak association and the time lag when the peak association occurred for a range of starting values of elapsed time from the beginning of an experiment.

Untangling the drivers of nonlinear systems with information theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, S.; Johnson, J.

2017-12-01

Many systems found in nature are nonlinear. The drivers of the system are often nonlinearly correlated with one another, which makes it a challenge to understand the effects of an individual driver. For example, solar wind velocity (Vsw) and density (nsw) are both found to correlate well with radiation belt fluxes and are thought to be drivers of the magnetospheric dynamics; however, the Vsw is anti-correlated with nsw, which can potentially confuse interpretation of these relationships as causal or coincidental. Information theory can untangle the drivers of these systems, describe the underlying dynamics, and offer constraints to modelers and theorists, leading to better understanding of the systems. Two examples are presented. In the first example, the solar wind drivers of geosynchronous electrons with energy range of 1.8-3.5 MeV are investigated using mutual information (MI), conditional mutual information (CMI), and transfer entropy (TE). The information transfer from Vsw to geosynchronous MeV electron flux (Je) peaks with a lag time (t) of 2 days. As previously reported, Je is anticorrelated with nsw with a lag of 1 day. However, this lag time and anticorrelation can be attributed mainly to the Je(t + 2 days) correlation with Vsw(t) and nsw(t + 1 day) anticorrelation with Vsw(t). Analyses of solar wind driving of the magnetosphere need to consider the large lag times, up to 3 days, in the (Vsw, nsw) anticorrelation. Using CMI to remove the effects of Vsw, the response of Je to nsw is 30% smaller and has a lag time < 24 hr, suggesting that the loss mechanism due to nsw or solar wind dynamic pressure has to start operating in < 24 hr. nsw transfers about 36% as much information as Vsw (the primary driver) to Je. Nonstationarity in the system dynamics are investigated using windowed TE. When the data is ordered according to high or low transfer entropy it is possible to understand details of the triangle distribution that has been identified between Je(t + 2 days) vs. Vsw(t). In the second example, the previously identified causal parameters of the solar cycle such as the solar polar field, meridional flow, polar faculae (proxy for polar field), dipole axis strength, are investigated. We discuss the response lag times of the sunspot numbers and information transferred to the sunspot numbers from the dynamic time series of these parameters.

Intimate Partner Aggression and Marital Satisfaction: A Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis.

PubMed

Hammett, Julia F; Lavner, Justin A; Karney, Benjamin R; Bradbury, Thomas N

2017-12-01

Intimate partner aggression is common in dissatisfied relationships, yet it remains unclear whether intimate partner aggression is a correlate of relationship satisfaction, whether it predicts or follows from relationship satisfaction over time, or whether longitudinal associations are in fact bidirectional in nature. The present study evaluates these perspectives by examining self-reports of aggressive behaviors in relation to corresponding self-reports of relationship satisfaction among a sample of 431 low-income, ethnically diverse (76% Hispanic, 12% African American, 12% Caucasian) newlywed couples. Using a cross-lagged panel analysis, we examined associations between aggression and satisfaction across four time points, spaced by 9-month intervals, during the first 2.5 years of marriage. Cross-sectionally, less satisfied couples reported higher levels of intimate partner aggression. Longitudinally, aggression was a more consistent predictor of satisfaction than vice versa, though neither pathway was particularly robust: Intimate partner aggression was a significant predictor of relationship satisfaction at 4 of the 12 tested lags, whereas relationship satisfaction was a significant predictor of intimate partner aggression at only one of 12 lags. Because all effects were relatively weak and inconsistent, more specificity is needed to clarify circumstances under which aggression does and does not predict satisfaction, including whether the predictive power of the aggression-to-satisfaction association varies based on the severity of aggression or other individual (e.g., personality) or external (e.g., stress and environmental context) factors. Together, results indicate that dissatisfied couples are more likely to engage in intimate partner aggression, but being dissatisfied is unlikely to increase the level of aggression a couple engages in over time.

Effect of environmental factors on the kinetics of insulin fibril formation: elucidation of the molecular mechanism.

PubMed

Nielsen, L; Khurana, R; Coats, A; Frokjaer, S; Brange, J; Vyas, S; Uversky, V N; Fink, A L

2001-05-22

In the search for the molecular mechanism of insulin fibrillation, the kinetics of insulin fibril formation were studied under different conditions using the fluorescent dye thioflavin T (ThT). The effect of insulin concentration, agitation, pH, ionic strength, anions, seeding, and addition of 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulfonic acid (ANS), urea, TMAO, sucrose, and ThT on the kinetics of fibrillation was investigated. The kinetics of the fibrillation process could be described by the lag time for formation of stable nuclei (nucleation) and the apparent rate constant for the growth of fibrils (elongation). The addition of seeds eliminated the lag phase. An increase in insulin concentration resulted in shorter lag times and faster growth of fibrils. Shorter lag times and faster growth of fibrils were seen at acidic pH versus neutral pH, whereas an increase in ionic strength resulted in shorter lag times and slower growth of fibrils. There was no clear correlation between the rate of fibril elongation and ionic strength. Agitation during fibril formation attenuated the effects of insulin concentration and ionic strength on both lag times and fibril growth. The addition of ANS increased the lag time and decreased the apparent growth rate for insulin fibril formation. The ANS-induced inhibition appears to reflect the formation of amorphous aggregates. The denaturant, urea, decreased the lag time, whereas the stabilizers, trimethylamine N-oxide dihydrate (TMAO) and sucrose, increased the lag times. The results indicated that both nucleation and fibril growth were controlled by hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions. A kinetic model, involving the association of monomeric partially folded intermediates, whose concentration is stimulated by the air-water interface, leading to formation of the critical nucleus and thence fibrils, is proposed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regmi, Rajesh; Lovelock, D. Michael; Zhang, Pengpeng

Purpose: To investigate constancy, within a treatment session, of the time lag relationship between implanted markers in abdominal tumors and an external motion surrogate. Methods: Six gastroesophageal junction and three pancreatic cancer patients (IRB-approved protocol) received two cone-beam CTs (CBCT), one before and one after treatment. Time between scans was less than 30 min. Each patient had at least one implanted fiducial marker near the tumor. In all scans, abdominal displacement (Varian RPM) was recorded as the external motion signal. Purpose-built software tracked fiducials, representing internal signal, in CBCT projection images. Time lag between superior–inferior (SI) internal and anterior–posterior externalmore » signals was found by maximizing the correlation coefficient in each breathing cycle and averaging over all cycles. Time-lag-induced discrepancy between internal SI position and that predicted from the external signal (external prediction error) was also calculated. Results: Mean ± standard deviation time lag, over all scans and patients, was 0.10 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01–0.36 s). External signal lagged the internal in 17/18 scans. Change in time lag between pre- and post-treatment CBCT was 0.06 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01–0.22 s), corresponding to 3.1% ± 3.7% (range 0.6%–10.8%) of gate width (range 1.6–3.1 s). In only one patient, change in time lag exceeded 10% of the gate width. External prediction error over all scans of all patients varied from 0.1 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.4 mm. Conclusions: Time lag between internal motion along SI and external signals is small compared to the treatment gate width of abdominal patients examined in this study. Change in time lag within a treatment session, inferred from pre- to post-treatment measurements is also small, suggesting that a single measurement of time lag at the session start is adequate. These findings require confirmation in a larger number of patients.« less

Analysis of the ENSO temperature and specific humidity signals in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with global COSMIC GPS RO observations from June 2006 to June 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhiping; Luo, Jia

2017-04-01

The specific humidity and the temperature response of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (TLS) over different areas i.e., Niño 3.4 (N3.4); -5˚ S-5˚ N, 180˚ W-180˚ E (G5); -30˚ S-30˚ N, 180˚ W-180˚ E (G30); -60˚ S-60˚ N, 180˚ W-180˚ E (G60); -90˚ S-90˚ N, 180˚ W-180˚ E (G90) were investigated using Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) data from June 2006 to June 2014. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and band-pass filtering with different filtering ranges at different altitudes were used to extract the ENSO-related signals of the specific humidity and the temperature over different altitude levels in the TLS. The time series that has the maximum correlation coefficient between the ENSO-related signals and the ONI were regarded as the strongest response to ENSO. The results confirmed that the ENSO was originated from tropical Pacific Ocean. The lag time and the phase of the maximum specific humidity or temperature response to ENSO event does not show a uniform patern at different altitudes in the troposphere over different areas, but the 1-2 seasons lag ONI was found and consistent with previous study results. The maximum correlation coefficient between the specific humidity and the ONI was about 0.94 at a lag time of 3 months at about 225 hpa altitude over the statistical areas while the maximum correlation coefficients (0.91) between the temperature and the ONI was found at ˜325 hpa altitude level at a lag time of 1 month in the TLS. The well agreement between the ENSO-related signals in the troposphere and the ONI indicates that the specific humidity and temperature derived from COSMIC GPS RO observations are significant for monitoring the ENSO events.

Time scales of pattern evolution from cross-spectrum analysis of advanced very high resolution radiometer and coastal zone color scanner imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denman, Kenneth L.; Abbott, Mark R.

1994-01-01

We have selected square subareas (110 km on a side) from coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) and advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) images for 1981 in the California Current region off northern California for which we could identify sequences of cloud-free data over periods of days to weeks. We applied a two-dimensional fast Fourier transformation to images after median filtering, (x, y) plane removal, and cosine tapering. We formed autospectra and coherence spectra as functions of a scalar wavenumber. Coherence estimates between pairs of images were plotted against time separation between images for several wide wavenumber bands to provide a temporal lagged coherence function. The temporal rate of loss of correlation (decorrelation time scale) in surface patterns provides a measure of the rate of pattern change or evolution as a function of spatial dimension. We found that patterns evolved (or lost correlation) approximately twice as rapidly in upwelling jets as in the 'quieter' regions between jets. The rapid evolution of pigment patterns (lifetime of about 1 week or less for scales of 50-100 km) ought to hinder biomass transfer to zooplankton predators compared with phytoplankton patches that persist for longer times. We found no significant differences between the statistics of CZCS and AVHRR images (spectral shape or rate of decorrelation). In addition, in two of the three areas studied, the peak correlation between AVHRR and CZCS images from the same area occurred at zero lag, indicating that the patterns evolved simutaneously. In the third area, maximum coherence between thermal and pigment patterns occurred when pigment images lagged thermal images by 1-2 days, mirroring the expected lag of high pigment behind low temperatures (and high nutrients) in recently upwelled water. We conclude that in dynamic areas such as coastal upwelling systems, the phytoplankton cells (identified by pigment color patterns) behave largely as passive scalars at the mesoscale and that growth, death, and sinking of phytoplankton collectively play at most a mariginal role in determining the spectral statistics of the pigment patterns.

Seasonal prediction for hydro-meteorological variables in the Korean Peninsula: Links with atmospheric teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.

2016-12-01

This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models over the Korean Peninsula (KP). The ocean-related major climate factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode in the Tropical Ocean (TO) region were used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA) and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrological variables are calculated by the Mutual Information (MI) techniques. Results show that teleconnection based nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs) were higher than linear CCs, ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation with IOD, which has a direct influence on rainfall and streamflow anomalies in the KP. The precipitation and streamflow in KP shows a significant increasing and decreasing tendency during warm pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT) El Niño decaying years, respectively, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions. IOD events show significantly decreasing and increasing long-term normal conditions during positive and negative years, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow can help policy makers prepare for possible options in river discharge pattern changes. Furthermore, these results provide useful information for water managers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related management plan.

Milk consumption in relation to incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in 48 countries/regions.

PubMed

Mai, Zhi-Ming; Lo, Ching-Man; Xu, Jun; Chan, King-Pan; Wong, Chit-Ming; Lung, Maria Li; Lam, Tai-Hing

2015-12-21

Decreasing trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) incidence have been consistently reported in endemic populations but the etiology of NPC remains unclear. The objective of our study was to assess the international and local (Hong Kong) correlations of milk and dairy products per capita consumption with NPC incidence. We conducted an ecological study in 48 countries/regions. Age standardized incidence rates of NPC were obtained from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Dairy product consumption and Human Development Index were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the United Nations Development Programme. Spearman correlation, multivariate analysis and time-lagged analysis were performed. The negative correlations between milk consumption and decreased age standardized incidence rates of NPC were observed in the 48 countries/regions adjusting for Human Development Index in endemic countries/regions. In Hong Kong, multivariate analysis, after adjusting for other potential confounders, including salted fish, cigarette, vegetable consumption and socioeconomic status, showed consistently negative and significant correlations between milk consumption and NPC incidence (The strongest coefficient (β) was observed at 10-year lag in males [β = -0.439; P < 0.01] and in females [β = -0.258; P < 0.01]). Our study showed the correlations on milk consumption per capita and against lower risk of NPC in 48 countries/regions and in Hong Kong. These hypothesis-generating results could support further studies on individual exposures and the disease.

Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China: A time series analysis (1970-2012).

PubMed

Yan, Long; Wang, Hong; Zhang, Xuan; Li, Ming-Yue; He, Juan

2017-01-01

Influence of meteorological variables on the transmission of bacillary dysentery (BD) is under investigated topic and effective forecasting models as public health tool are lacking. This paper aimed to quantify the relationship between meteorological variables and BD cases in Beijing and to establish an effective forecasting model. A time series analysis was conducted in the Beijing area based upon monthly data on weather variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed) and on the number of BD cases during the period 1970-2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average models with explanatory variables (ARIMAX) were built based on the data from 1970 to 2004. Prediction of monthly BD cases from 2005 to 2012 was made using the established models. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by the mean square error (MSE). Firstly, temperature with 2-month and 7-month lags and rainfall with 12-month lag were found positively correlated with the number of BD cases in Beijing. Secondly, ARIMAX model with covariates of temperature with 7-month lag (β = 0.021, 95% confidence interval(CI): 0.004-0.038) and rainfall with 12-month lag (β = 0.023, 95% CI: 0.009-0.037) displayed the highest prediction accuracy. The ARIMAX model developed in this study showed an accurate goodness of fit and precise prediction accuracy in the short term, which would be beneficial for government departments to take early public health measures to prevent and control possible BD popularity.

[Are simple time lags responsible for cyclic variation of population density? : A comparison of laboratory population dynamics of Brachionus calyciflorus pallas (rotatoria) with computer simulations].

PubMed

Halbach, Udo; Burkhardt, Heinz Jürgen

1972-09-01

Laboratory populations of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus were cultured at different temperatures (25, 20, 15°C) but otherwise at constant conditions. The population densities showed relatively constant oscillations (Figs. 1 to 3A-C). Amplitudes and frequencies of the oscillations were positively correlated with temperature (Table 1). A test was made, whether the logistic growth function with simple time lag is able to describe the population curves. There are strong similarities between the simulations (Figs. 1-3E) and the real population dynamics if minor adjustments of the empirically determined parameters are made. There-fore it is suggested that time lags are responsible for the observed oscillations. However, the actual time lags probably do not act in the simple manner of the model, because birth and death rates react with different time lags, and both parameters are dependent on individual age and population density. A more complex model, which incorporates these modifications, should lead to a more realistic description of the observed oscillations.

Ordering statistics of four random walkers on a line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helenbrook, Brian; ben-Avraham, Daniel

2018-05-01

We study the ordering statistics of four random walkers on the line, obtaining a much improved estimate for the long-time decay exponent of the probability that a particle leads to time t , Plead(t ) ˜t-0.91287850 , and that a particle lags to time t (never assumes the lead), Plag(t ) ˜t-0.30763604 . Exponents of several other ordering statistics for N =4 walkers are obtained to eight-digit accuracy as well. The subtle correlations between n walkers that lag jointly, out of a field of N , are discussed: for N =3 there are no correlations and Plead(t ) ˜Plag(t) 2 . In contrast, our results rule out the possibility that Plead(t ) ˜Plag(t) 3 for N =4 , although the correlations in this borderline case are tiny.

White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Peter M.

The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

Weather Variability Associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue Vector) Oviposition Dynamics in Northwestern Argentina

PubMed Central

Estallo, Elizabet L.; Ludueña-Almeida, Francisco F.; Introini, María V.; Zaidenberg, Mario; Almirón, Walter R.

2015-01-01

This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Orán, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weather variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure of water, temperature, and relative humidity) with and without time lags (1 to 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed with the set of meteorological variables from the first year of study with the variables in the time lags that best correlated with the oviposition. Model validation was conducted using the data from the second year of study (October 2006- 2007). Minimum temperature and rainfall were the most important variables. No eggs were found at temperatures below 10°C. The most significant time lags were 3 weeks for minimum temperature and rains, 3 weeks for water vapor pressure, and 6 weeks for maximum temperature. Aedes aegypti could be expected in Orán three weeks after rains with adequate min temperatures. The best-fit forecasting model for the combined meteorological variables explained 70 % of the variance (adj. R2). The correlation between Ae. aegypti oviposition observed and estimated by the forecasting model resulted in rs = 0.80 (P < 0.05). The forecasting model developed would allow prediction of increases and decreases in the Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on meteorological data for Orán city and, according to the meteorological variables, vector activity can be predicted three or four weeks in advance. PMID:25993415

Oceanic and atmospheric conditions associated with the pentad rainfall over the southeastern peninsular India during the North-East Indian Monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanmugasundaram, Jothiganesh; Lee, Eungul

2018-03-01

The association of North-East Indian Monsoon rainfall (NEIMR) over the southeastern peninsular India with the oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the adjacent ocean regions at pentad time step (five days period) was investigated during the months of October to December for the period 1985-2014. The non-parametric correlation and composite analyses were carried out for the simultaneous and lagged time steps (up to four lags) of oceanic and atmospheric variables with pentad NEIMR. The results indicated that NEIMR was significantly correlated: 1) positively with both sea surface temperature (SST) led by 1-4 pentads (lag 1-4 time steps) and latent heat flux (LHF) during the simultaneous, lag 1 and 2 time steps over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, 2) positively with SST but negatively with LHF (less heat flux from ocean to atmosphere) during the same and all the lagged time steps over the Bay of Bengal. Consistently, during the wet NEIMR pentads over the southeastern peninsular India, SST significantly increased over the Bay of Bengal during all the time steps and the equatorial western Indian Ocean during the lag 2-4 time steps, while the LHF decreased over the Bay of Bengal (all time steps) and increased over the Indian Ocean (same, lag 1 and 2). The investigation on ocean-atmospheric interaction revealed that the enhanced LHF over the equatorial western Indian Ocean was related to increased atmospheric moisture demand and increased wind speed, whereas the reduced LHF over the Bay of Bengal was associated with decreased atmospheric moisture demand and decreased wind speed. The vertically integrated moisture flux and moisture transport vectors from 1000 to 850 hPa exhibited that the moisture was carried away from the equatorial western Indian Ocean to the strong moisture convergence regions of the Bay of Bengal during the same and lag 1 time steps of wet NEIMR pentads. Further, the moisture over the Bay of Bengal was transported to the southeastern peninsular India through stronger cyclonic circulations, which were confirmed by the moisture transport vectors and positive vorticity. The identified ocean and atmosphere processes, associated with the wet NEIMR conditions, could be a valuable scientific input for enhancing the rainfall predictability, which has a huge socioeconomic value to agriculture and water resource management sectors in the southeastern peninsular India.

A Time Lag Analysis of Temporal Relations between Motivation, Academic Achievement, and Two Cognitive Abilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, Monica R.; Pasnak, Robert; Romero, Sandy L.

2009-01-01

Research Findings: The present study employed a time lag design to assess temporal relationships between motivation, academic achievement, and cognitive development. Eighty-one children from 2 preschool programs were measured twice, with an 11-week time lag, on 2 measures of motivation (marble drop task, bean bag toss task), 2 measures of…

Variation of Magnetic Field (By , Bz) Polarity and Statistical Analysis of Solar Wind Parameters during the Magnetic Storm Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Ga-Hee

2011-06-01

It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are divided into three types, which are coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven storms, co-rotating interaction region (CIR)-driven storms, and complicated type storms. Complicated types were not included in this study. For this purpose, the manner in which the direction change of IMF By and Bz components (in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system coordinate) during the main phase is related with the development of the storm is examined. The time-integrated solar wind parameters are compared with the time-integrated disturbance storm time (Dst) index during the main phase of each magnetic storm. The time lag with the storm size is also investigated. Some results are worth noting: CME-driven storms, under steady conditions of Bz < 0, represent more than half of the storms in number. That is, it is found that the average number of storms for negative sign of IMF Bz (T1~T4) is high, at 56.4%, 53.0%, and 63.7% in each storm category, respectively. However, for the CIR-driven storms, the percentage of moderate storms is only 29.2%, while the number of intense storms is more than half (60.0%) under the Bz < 0 condition. It is found that the correlation is highest between the time-integrated IMF Bz and the time-integrated Dst index for the CME-driven storms. On the other hand, for the CIR-driven storms, a high correlation is found, with the correlation coefficient being 0.93, between time-integrated Dst index and time-integrated solar wind speed, while a low correlation, 0.51, is found between timeintegrated Bz and time-integrated Dst index. The relationship between storm size and time lag in terms of hours from Bz minimum to Dst minimum values is investigated. For the CME-driven storms, time lag of 26% of moderate storms is one hour, whereas time lag of 33% of moderate storms is two hours for the CIR-driven storms. The average values of solar wind parameters for the CME and CIR-driven storms are also examined. The average values of |Dstmin| and |Bzmin| for the CME-driven storms are higher than those of CIR-driven storms, while the average value of temperature is lower.

Temporal Sequence of Ictal discharges Propagation in the Corticolimbic Basal Ganglia System during Amygdala Kindled Seizures in Freely Moving Rats

PubMed Central

Shi, Li-Hong; Luo, Fei; Woodward, Donald J.; McIntyre, Dan C.; Chang, Jing-Yu

2007-01-01

We used a multiple channel, single unit recording technique to investigate the neural activity in different corticolimbic and basal ganglia regions in freely moving rats before and during generalized amygdala kindled seizures. Neural activity was recorded simultaneously in the sensorimotor cortex (Ctx), hippocampus, amygdala, substantia nigra pars reticulata (SNr) and the subthalamic nucleus (STN). We observed massive synchronized activity among neurons of different brain regions during seizure episodes. Neurons in the kindled amygdala led other regions in synchronized firing, revealed by time lags of neurons in other regions in crosscorrelogram analysis. While there was no obvious time lag between Ctx and SNr, the STN and hippocampus did lag behind the Ctx and SNr in correlated firing. Activity in the amygdala and SNr contralateral to the kindling stimulation site lagged behind their ipsilateral counterparts. However no time lag was found between the kindling and contralateral sides of Ctx, hippocampus and STN. Our data confirm that the amygdala is an epileptic focus that emits ictal discharges to other brain regions. The observed temporal pattern indicates that ictal discharges from the amygdala arrive first at Ctx and SNr, and then spread to the hippocampus and STN. The simultaneous activation of both sides of the Ctx suggests that the neocortex participates in kindled seizures as a unisonant entity to provoke the clonic motor seizures. Early activation of the SNr (before the STN and hippocampus) points to an important role of the SNr in amygdala kindled seizures and supports the view that different SNr manipulations may be effective ways to control seizures. PMID:17049434

A deep X-ray view of the bare AGN Ark 120. III. X-ray timing analysis and multiwavelength variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobban, A. P.; Porquet, D.; Reeves, J. N.; Markowitz, A.; Nardini, E.; Grosso, N.

2018-03-01

We present the spectral/timing properties of the bare Seyfert galaxy Ark 120 through a deep ˜420 ks XMM-Newton campaign plus recent NuSTAR observations and a ˜6-month Swift monitoring campaign. We investigate the spectral decomposition through fractional rms, covariance and difference spectra, finding the mid- to long-time-scale (˜day-year) variability to be dominated by a relatively smooth, steep component, peaking in the soft X-ray band. Additionally, we find evidence for variable Fe K emission redward of the Fe Kα core on long time-scales, consistent with previous findings. We detect a clearly defined power spectrum which we model with a power law with a slope of α ˜ 1.9. By extending the power spectrum to lower frequencies through the inclusion of Swift and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer data, we find tentative evidence of a high-frequency break, consistent with existing scaling relations. We also explore frequency-dependent Fourier time lags, detecting a negative (`soft') lag for the first time in this source with the 0.3-1 keV band lagging behind the 1-4 keV band with a time delay, τ, of ˜900 s. Finally, we analyse the variability in the optical and ultraviolet (UV) bands using the Optical/UV Monitor onboard XMM-Newton and the Ultra-Violet/Optical Telescope onboard Swift and search for time-dependent correlations between the optical/UV/X-ray bands. We find tentative evidence for the U-band emission lagging behind the X-rays with a time delay of τ = 2.4 ± 1.8 d, which we discuss in the context of disc reprocessing.

Technical Note: Intrafractional changes in time lag relationship between anterior-posterior external and superior-inferior internal motion signals in abdominal tumor sites.

PubMed

Regmi, Rajesh; Lovelock, D Michael; Zhang, Pengpeng; Pham, Hai; Xiong, Jianping; Yorke, Ellen D; Goodman, Karyn A; Wu, Abraham J; Mageras, Gig S

2015-06-01

To investigate constancy, within a treatment session, of the time lag relationship between implanted markers in abdominal tumors and an external motion surrogate. Six gastroesophageal junction and three pancreatic cancer patients (IRB-approved protocol) received two cone-beam CTs (CBCT), one before and one after treatment. Time between scans was less than 30 min. Each patient had at least one implanted fiducial marker near the tumor. In all scans, abdominal displacement (Varian RPM) was recorded as the external motion signal. Purpose-built software tracked fiducials, representing internal signal, in CBCT projection images. Time lag between superior-inferior (SI) internal and anterior-posterior external signals was found by maximizing the correlation coefficient in each breathing cycle and averaging over all cycles. Time-lag-induced discrepancy between internal SI position and that predicted from the external signal (external prediction error) was also calculated. Mean ± standard deviation time lag, over all scans and patients, was 0.10 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01-0.36 s). External signal lagged the internal in 17/18 scans. Change in time lag between pre- and post-treatment CBCT was 0.06 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01-0.22 s), corresponding to 3.1% ± 3.7% (range 0.6%-10.8%) of gate width (range 1.6-3.1 s). In only one patient, change in time lag exceeded 10% of the gate width. External prediction error over all scans of all patients varied from 0.1 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.4 mm. Time lag between internal motion along SI and external signals is small compared to the treatment gate width of abdominal patients examined in this study. Change in time lag within a treatment session, inferred from pre- to post-treatment measurements is also small, suggesting that a single measurement of time lag at the session start is adequate. These findings require confirmation in a larger number of patients.

Technical Note: Intrafractional changes in time lag relationship between anterior–posterior external and superior–inferior internal motion signals in abdominal tumor sites

PubMed Central

Regmi, Rajesh; Lovelock, D. Michael; Zhang, Pengpeng; Pham, Hai; Xiong, Jianping; Yorke, Ellen D.; Goodman, Karyn A.; Wu, Abraham J.; Mageras, Gig S.

2015-01-01

Purpose: To investigate constancy, within a treatment session, of the time lag relationship between implanted markers in abdominal tumors and an external motion surrogate. Methods: Six gastroesophageal junction and three pancreatic cancer patients (IRB-approved protocol) received two cone-beam CTs (CBCT), one before and one after treatment. Time between scans was less than 30 min. Each patient had at least one implanted fiducial marker near the tumor. In all scans, abdominal displacement (Varian RPM) was recorded as the external motion signal. Purpose-built software tracked fiducials, representing internal signal, in CBCT projection images. Time lag between superior–inferior (SI) internal and anterior–posterior external signals was found by maximizing the correlation coefficient in each breathing cycle and averaging over all cycles. Time-lag-induced discrepancy between internal SI position and that predicted from the external signal (external prediction error) was also calculated. Results: Mean ± standard deviation time lag, over all scans and patients, was 0.10 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01–0.36 s). External signal lagged the internal in 17/18 scans. Change in time lag between pre- and post-treatment CBCT was 0.06 ± 0.07 s (range 0.01–0.22 s), corresponding to 3.1% ± 3.7% (range 0.6%–10.8%) of gate width (range 1.6–3.1 s). In only one patient, change in time lag exceeded 10% of the gate width. External prediction error over all scans of all patients varied from 0.1 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.4 mm. Conclusions: Time lag between internal motion along SI and external signals is small compared to the treatment gate width of abdominal patients examined in this study. Change in time lag within a treatment session, inferred from pre- to post-treatment measurements is also small, suggesting that a single measurement of time lag at the session start is adequate. These findings require confirmation in a larger number of patients. PMID:26127033

Modeling seasonal leptospirosis transmission and its association with rainfall and temperature in Thailand using time-series and ARIMAX analyses.

PubMed

Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Modchang, Charin; Lenbury, Yongwimon; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong

2012-07-01

To study the number of leptospirosis cases in relations to the seasonal pattern, and its association with climate factors. Time series analysis was used to study the time variations in the number of leptospirosis cases. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used in data curve fitting and predicting the next leptospirosis cases. We found that the amount of rainfall was correlated to leptospirosis cases in both regions of interest, namely the northern and northeastern region of Thailand, while the temperature played a role in the northeastern region only. The use of multivariate ARIMA (ARIMAX) model showed that factoring in rainfall (with an 8 months lag) yields the best model for the northern region while the model, which factors in rainfall (with a 10 months lag) and temperature (with an 8 months lag) was the best for the northeastern region. The models are able to show the trend in leptospirosis cases and closely fit the recorded data in both regions. The models can also be used to predict the next seasonal peak quite accurately. Copyright © 2012 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The scale-dependent market trend: Empirical evidences using the lagged DFA method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Daye; Kou, Zhun; Sun, Qiankun

2015-09-01

In this paper we make an empirical research and test the efficiency of 44 important market indexes in multiple scales. A modified method based on the lagged detrended fluctuation analysis is utilized to maximize the information of long-term correlations from the non-zero lags and keep the margin of errors small when measuring the local Hurst exponent. Our empirical result illustrates that a common pattern can be found in the majority of the measured market indexes which tend to be persistent (with the local Hurst exponent > 0.5) in the small time scale, whereas it displays significant anti-persistent characteristics in large time scales. Moreover, not only the stock markets but also the foreign exchange markets share this pattern. Considering that the exchange markets are only weakly synchronized with the economic cycles, it can be concluded that the economic cycles can cause anti-persistence in the large time scale but there are also other factors at work. The empirical result supports the view that financial markets are multi-fractal and it indicates that deviations from efficiency and the type of model to describe the trend of market price are dependent on the forecasting horizon.

SST and OLR relationship during Indian summer monsoon: a coupled climate modelling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam; Pokhrel, Samir; Chakrabarty, Chandrima; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sreenivas, P.

2018-04-01

The study mainly investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) relationships in coupled climate model. To support the analysis, high-level cloud and OLR relationship is also investigated. High-level cloud and OLR relationship depicts significant negative correlation over the entire monsoon regime. Coupled climate model is able to produce the same. SST and OLR relationship in observation also depicts significant negative relationship, in particular, over the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is able to portray the negative relationship over EIO region; however, it is underestimated as compared to observation. Significant negative correlations elucidate that local SSTs regulate the convection and further it initiates Bjerknes feedback in the central Indian Ocean. It connotes that SST anomalies during monsoon period tend to be determined by oceanic forcing. The heat content of the coastal Bay of Bengal shows highest response to EIO SST by a lag of 1 month. It suggests that the coastal region of the Bay of Bengal is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which might have come from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Sea surface height anomalies, depth at 20 °C isotherms and depth at 26 isotherms also supports the above hypothesis. Composite analysis based on EIO index and coupled climate model sensitivity experiments also suggest that the coastal Bay of Bengal region is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which are propagated from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Thus, SST and OLR relationship pinpoints that the Bay of Bengal OLR (convection) is governed by local ocean-atmospheric coupling, which is influenced by the delayed response from EIO brought forward through oceanic planetary waves at a lag of 1 month. These results have utmost predictive value for seasonal and extended range forecasting. Thus, OLR and SST relationship can constitute a pivotal role in investigating the atmosphere-ocean interaction.

Cross-correlation of point series using a new method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strothers, Richard B.

1994-01-01

Traditional methods of cross-correlation of two time series do not apply to point time series. Here, a new method, devised specifically for point series, utilizes a correlation measure that is based in the rms difference (or, alternatively, the median absolute difference) between nearest neightbors in overlapped segments of the two series. Error estimates for the observed locations of the points, as well as a systematic shift of one series with respect to the other to accommodate a constant, but unknown, lead or lag, are easily incorporated into the analysis using Monte Carlo techniques. A methodological restriction adopted here is that one series be treated as a template series against which the other, called the target series, is cross-correlated. To estimate a significance level for the correlation measure, the adopted alternative (null) hypothesis is that the target series arises from a homogeneous Poisson process. The new method is applied to cross-correlating the times of the greatest geomagnetic storms with the times of maximum in the undecennial solar activity cycle.

Time Delays of Blazar Flares Observed at Different Wavebands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marscher, Alan P.

2000-01-01

Correlated variability at different frequencies can probe the structure and physics of the jet of a blazar on size scales much smaller than can be resolved by telescopes and interferometers. I discuss some observations of frequency dependent time lags and how these place constraints on models for the nonthermal emission in blazars. The time lags can be either positive (high frequency variations leading those at lower frequencies) or negative, while simultaneous flares are also possible.

Expression of LAG-3 defines exhaustion of intratumoral PD-1+ T cells and correlates with poor outcome in follicular lymphoma

PubMed Central

Yang, Zhi-Zhang; Kim, Hyo Jin; Villasboas, Jose C.; Chen, Ya-Ping; Price-Troska, Tammy; Jalali, Shahrzad; Wilson, Mara; Novak, Anne J.; Ansell, Stephen M.

2017-01-01

Exhausted T-cells in follicular lymphoma (FL) typically express PD-1, but expression of PD-1 is not limited to exhausted cells. Although expected to be functionally suppressed, we found that the population of intratumoral PD-1+ T cells were predominantly responsible for production of cytokines and granules. This surprising finding prompted us to explore the involvement of LAG-3 to specifically identify functionally exhausted T cells. We found that LAG-3 was expressed on a subset of intratumoral T cells from FL and LAG-3+ T cells almost exclusively came from PD-1+ population. CyTOF analysis revealed that intratumoral LAG-3+ T cells were phenotypically heterogeneous as LAG-3 was expressed on a variety of T cell subsets. In contrast to PD-1+LAG-3- cells, intratumoral PD-1+LAG-3+ T cells exhibited reduced capacity to produce cytokines and granules. LAG-3 expression could be substantially upregulated on CD4+ or CD8+ T cells by IL-12, a cytokine that has been shown to induce T-cell exhaustion and be increased in the serum of lymphoma patients. Furthermore, we found that blockade of both PD-1 and LAG-3 signaling enhanced the function of intratumoral CD8+ T cells resulting in increased IFN-γ and IL-2 production. Clinically, LAG-3 expression on intratumoral T cells correlated with a poor outcome in FL patients. Taken together, we find that LAG-3 expression is necessary to identify the population of intratumoral PD-1+ T cells that are functionally exhausted and, in contrast, find that PD-1+LAG-3- T cells are simply activated cells that are immunologically functional. These findings may have important implications for immune checkpoint therapy in FL. PMID:28977875

[Spatial pattern of land surface dead combustible fuel load in Huzhong forest area in Great Xing'an Mountains].

PubMed

Liu, Zhi-Hua; Chang, Yu; Chen, Hong-Wei; Zhou, Rui; Jing, Guo-Zhi; Zhang, Hong-Xin; Zhang, Chang-Meng

2008-03-01

By using geo-statistics and based on time-lag classification standard, a comparative study was made on the land surface dead combustible fuels in Huzhong forest area in Great Xing'an Mountains. The results indicated that the first level land surface dead combustible fuel, i. e., 1 h time-lag dead fuel, presented stronger spatial auto-correlation, with an average of 762.35 g x m(-2) and contributing to 55.54% of the total load. Its determining factors were species composition and stand age. The second and third levels land surface dead combustible fuel, i. e., 10 h and 100 h time-lag dead fuels, had a sum of 610.26 g x m(-2), and presented weaker spatial auto-correlation than 1 h time-lag dead fuel. Their determining factor was the disturbance history of forest stand. The complexity and heterogeneity of the factors determining the quality and quantity of forest land surface dead combustible fuels were the main reasons for the relatively inaccurate interpolation. However, the utilization of field survey data coupled with geo-statistics could easily and accurately interpolate the spatial pattern of forest land surface dead combustible fuel loads, and indirectly provide a practical basis for forest management.

Beaming Structures of Jupiter's Decametric Radiation from LWA1, NDA, and URAN2 Simultaneous Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, M.; Lecacheux, A.; Higgins, C. A.; Clarke, T.; Panchenko, M.; Brazhenko, A. I.; Frantsuzenko, A. V.; Konovalenko, A. A.; Imai, K.

2015-12-01

From December 2014 to March 2015, Jupiter's decametric (DAM) radio observations were carried out by using simultaneously three powerful low-frequency radio telescopes: Long Wavelength Array One (LWA1), Socorro, USA; Nançay Decameter Array (NDA), Nançay, France; and URAN2 telescope, Poltava, Ukraine. Baselines are 10000, 8600, and 2400 kilometers for LWA1-URAN2, NDA-LWA1, and URAN2-NDA, respectively. One Io-B and two Io-A emissions were simultaneously observed. Using cross-correlation analysis of obtained spectrograms, it was found that, as a function of lag time in a pair of two stations, Io-B (mainly S-bursts) and Io-A (L-bursts) show different kinds of cross-correlation coefficients, with sharp and broad peaks, respectively. By measuring lag times between LWA1-URAN2, NDA-LWA1, and URAN2-NDA pairs, it can be tested if either flashlight- or beacon-like beaming is emanated from Jupiter. Measurements of beaming width are also analyzed. Most probable beaming scenarios for Io-B and -A events are suggested.

Newly found evidence of Sun-climate relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Hongsuk H.; Huang, Norden E.

1993-01-01

Solar radiation cycles drive climatic changes intercyclically. These interdecadal changes were detected as variations in solar total irradiances over the time period of recorded global surface-air-temperature (SAT) and have been restored utilizing Earth Radiation Budget Channel 10C measurements (1978-1990), Greenwich Observatory faculae data (1874-1975), and Taipei Observatory Active Region data (1964-1991). Analysis of the two separate events was carried out by treating each as a discrete time series determined by the length of each solar cycle. The results show that the global SAT responded closely to the input of solar cyclical activities, S, with a quantitative relation of T = 1.62 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.61. This correlation peaks at 0.71 with a built-in time lag of 32 months in temperature response. Solar forcing in interannual time scale was also detected and the derived relationship of T = 0.17 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.66 was observed. Our analysis shows derived climate sensitivities approximately fit the theoretical feedback slope, 4T(sup 3).

Pearson correlation estimation for irregularly sampled time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Heitzig, J.; Kurths, J.

2012-04-01

Many applications in the geosciences call for the joint and objective analysis of irregular time series. For automated processing, robust measures of linear and nonlinear association are needed. Up to now, the standard approach would have been to reconstruct the time series on a regular grid, using linear or spline interpolation. Interpolation, however, comes with systematic side-effects, as it increases the auto-correlation in the time series. We have searched for the best method to estimate Pearson correlation for irregular time series, i.e. the one with the lowest estimation bias and variance. We adapted a kernel-based approach, using Gaussian weights. Pearson correlation is calculated, in principle, as a mean over products of previously centralized observations. In the regularly sampled case, observations in both time series were observed at the same time and thus the allocation of measurement values into pairs of products is straightforward. In the irregularly sampled case, however, measurements were not necessarily observed at the same time. Now, the key idea of the kernel-based method is to calculate weighted means of products, with the weight depending on the time separation between the observations. If the lagged correlation function is desired, the weights depend on the absolute difference between observation time separation and the estimation lag. To assess the applicability of the approach we used extensive simulations to determine the extent of interpolation side-effects with increasing irregularity of time series. We compared different approaches, based on (linear) interpolation, the Lomb-Scargle Fourier Transform, the sinc kernel and the Gaussian kernel. We investigated the role of kernel bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratio in the simulations. We found that the Gaussian kernel approach offers significant advantages and low Root-Mean Square Errors for regular, slightly irregular and very irregular time series. We therefore conclude that it is a good (linear) similarity measure that is appropriate for irregular time series with skewed inter-sampling time distributions.

Break point on the auto-correlation function of Elsässer variable z- in the super-Alfvénic solar wind fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Tu, C. Y.; He, J.; Wang, L.

2017-12-01

It has been a longstanding debate on what the nature of Elsässer variables z- observed in the Alfvénic solar wind is. It is widely believed that z- represents inward propagating Alfvén waves and undergoes non-linear interaction with z+ to produce energy cascade. However, z- variations sometimes show nature of convective structures. Here we present a new data analysis on z- autocorrelation functions to get some definite information on its nature. We find that there is usually a break point on the z- auto-correlation function when the fluctuations show nearly pure Alfvénicity. The break point observed by Helios-2 spacecraft near 0.3 AU is at the first time lag ( 81 s), where the autocorrelation coefficient has the value less than that at zero-time lag by a factor of more than 0.4. The autocorrelation function breaks also appear in the WIND observations near 1 AU. The z- autocorrelation function is separated by the break into two parts: fast decreasing part and slowly decreasing part, which cannot be described in a whole by an exponential formula. The breaks in the z- autocorrelation function may represent that the z- time series are composed of high-frequency white noise and low-frequency apparent structures, which correspond to the flat and steep parts of the function, respectively. This explanation is supported by a simple test with a superposition of an artificial random data series and a smoothed random data series. Since in many cases z- autocorrelation functions do not decrease very quickly at large time lag and cannot be considered as the Lanczos type, no reliable value for correlation-time can be derived. Our results showed that in these cases with high Alfvénicity, z- should not be considered as inward-propagating wave. The power-law spectrum of z+ should be made by fluid turbulence cascade process presented by Kolmogorov.

Analysis of Quasi-periodic Oscillations and Time Lag in Ultraluminous X-Ray Sources with XMM-Newton

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zi-Jian; Xiao, Guang-Cheng; Zhang, Shu

We investigated the power density spectrum (PDS) and time lag of ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs) observed by XMM-Newton . We determined the PDSs for each ULX and found that five of them show intrinsic variability due to obvious quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) of mHz–1 Hz, consistent with previous reports. We further investigated these five ULXs to determine their possible time lag. The ULX QPOs exhibit a soft time lag that is linearly related to the QPO frequency. We discuss the likelihood of the ULX QPOs being type-C QPO analogs, and the time lag models. The ULXs might harbor intermediate-mass black holesmore » if their QPOs are type-C QPO analogs. We suggest that the soft lag and the linearity may be due to reverberation.« less

Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

PubMed

Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

2015-09-01

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of terpene enhancer lipophilicity on the percutaneous permeation of hydrocortisone formulated in HPMC gel systems.

PubMed

El-Kattan, A F; Asbill, C S; Michniak, B B

2000-04-05

The percutaneous permeation of hydrocortisone (HC) was investigated in hairless mouse skin after application of an alcoholic hydrogel using a diffusion cell technique. The formulations contained one of 12 terpenes, the selection of which was based on an increase in their lipophilicity (log P 1.06-5.36). Flux, cumulative receptor concentrations, skin content, and lag time of HC were measured over 24 h and compared with control gels (containing no terpene). Furthermore, HC skin content and the solubility of HC in the alcoholic hydrogel solvent mixture in the presence of terpene were determined, and correlated to the enhancing activity of terpenes. The in vitro permeation experiments with hairless mouse skin revealed that the terpene enhancers varied in their ability to enhance the flux of HC. Nerolidol which possessed the highest lipophilicity (log P = 5.36+/-0.38) provided the greatest enhancement for HC flux (35.3-fold over control). Fenchone (log P = 2.13+/-0.30) exhibited the lowest enhancement of HC flux (10.1-fold over control). In addition, a linear relationship was established between the log P of terpenes and the cumulative amount of HC in the receptor after 24 h (Q(24)). Nerolidol, provided the highest Q(24) (1733+/-93 microg/cm(2)), whereas verbenone produced the lowest Q(24) (653+/-105 microg/cm(2)). Thymol provided the lowest HC skin content (1151+/-293 microg/g), while cineole produced the highest HC skin content (18999+/-5666 microg/g). No correlation was established between the log P of enhancers and HC skin content. A correlation however, existed between the log P of terpenes and the lag time. As log P increased, a linear decrease in lag time was observed. Cymene yielded the shortest HC lag time, while fenchone produced the longest lag time. Also, the increase in the log P of terpenes resulted in a proportional increase in HC solubility in the formulation solvent mixture.

A Comparison of Several Methods of Measuring Ignition Lag in a Compression-ignition Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spanogle, J A

1934-01-01

The ignition lag of a fuel oil in the combustion chamber of a high speed compression-ignition engine was measured by three different methods. The start of injection of the fuel as observed with a Stoborama was taken as the start of the period of ignition lag in all cases. The end of the period of ignition lag was determined by observation of the appearance of incandescence in the combustion chamber, by inspection of a pressure-time card for evidence of pressure rise, and by analysis of the indicator card for evidence of the combustion of a small but definite quantity of fuel. A comparison of the values for ignition lags obtained by these three methods indicates that the appearance of incandescence is later than other evidences of the start of combustion, that visual inspection of a pressure-time diagram gives consistent and usable values with a minimum requirement of time and/or apparatus, and that analysis of the indicator card is not worth while for ignition lag alone.

Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

2007-07-01

We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.

AIR POLLUTION EPIDEMIOLOGY: CAN INFORMATION BE OBTAINED FROM THE VARIATIONS IN SIGNIFICANCE AND RISK AS A FUNCTION OF DAYS AFTER EXPOSURE (LAG STRUCTURE)?

EPA Science Inventory

Determine if analysis of lag structure from time series epidemiology, using gases, particles, and source factor time series, can contribute to understanding the relationships among various air pollution indicators. Methods: Analyze lag structure from an epidemiologic study of ca...

35 years of Ambient Noise: Can We Evidence Daily to Climatic Relative Velocity Changes ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lecocq, T.; Pedersen, H.; Brenguier, F.; Stammler, K.

2014-12-01

The broadband Grafenberg array (Germany) has been installed in 1976 and, thanks to visionary scientists and network maintainers, the continuous data acquired has been preserved until today. Using state of the art pre-processing and cross-correlation techniques, we are able to extract cross-correlation functions (CCF) between sensor pairs. It has been shown recently that, provided enough computation power is available, there is no need to define a reference CCF to compare all days to. Indeed, one can compare each day to all days, computing the "all-doublet". The number of calculations becomes huge (N vs ref = N calculations, N vs N= N*N), but the result, once inverted, is way more stable because of the N observations per day. This analysis has been done on a parallelized version of MSNoise (http://msnoise.org), running on the VEGA cluster hosted at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB, Belgium). Here, we present preliminary results of the analysis of two stations, GRA1 and GRA2, the first two stations installed in March 1976. The interferogram (observation of the CCF through time, see Figure) already shows interesting features in the ballistic wave shape, highly correlated to the seasons. A reasonably high correlation can still be seen outside the ballistic arrival, after +-5 second lag time. The lag times between 5 and 25 seconds are then used to compute the dv/v using the all-doublet method. We expect to evidence daily to seasonal, or even to longer period dv/v variations and/or noise source position changes using this method. Once done with 1 sensor pair, the full data of the Grafenberg array will be used to enhance the resolution even more.

The Impact of Nature Experience on Willingness to Support Conservation

PubMed Central

Zaradic, Patricia A.; Pergams, Oliver R. W.; Kareiva, Peter

2009-01-01

We hypothesized that willingness to financially support conservation depends on one's experience with nature. In order to test this hypothesis, we used a novel time-lagged correlation analysis to look at times series data concerning nature participation, and evaluate its relationship with future conservation support (measured as contributions to conservation NGOs). Our results suggest that the type and timing of nature experience may determine future conservation investment. Time spent hiking or backpacking is correlated with increased conservation contributions 11–12 years later. On the other hand, contributions are negatively correlated with past time spent on activities such as public lands visitation or fishing. Our results suggest that each hiker or backpacker translates to $200–$300 annually in future NGO contributions. We project that the recent decline in popularity of hiking and backpacking will negatively impact conservation NGO contributions from approximately 2010–2011 through at least 2018. PMID:19809511

Nonergodic property of the space-time coupled CTRW: Dependence on the long-tailed property and correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jian; Li, Baohe; Chen, Xiaosong

2018-02-01

The space-time coupled continuous time random walk model is a stochastic framework of anomalous diffusion with many applications in physics, geology and biology. In this manuscript the time averaged mean squared displacement and nonergodic property of a space-time coupled continuous time random walk model is studied, which is a prototype of the coupled continuous time random walk presented and researched intensively with various methods. The results in the present manuscript show that the time averaged mean squared displacements increase linearly with lag time which means ergodicity breaking occurs, besides, we find that the diffusion coefficient is intrinsically random which shows both aging and enhancement, the analysis indicates that the either aging or enhancement phenomena are determined by the competition between the correlation exponent γ and the waiting time's long-tailed index α.

Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neeraj; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

2017-09-01

We study the multi-scale temporal correlations and causality connections between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) monthly average closing price indexes for a period of 300 months, encompassing the time period of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and its gradual global exposure. In multi-scale analysis; clearly identifiable 1, 2 and 3 year non-stationary periodic modulations in NYSE and BSE have been observed, with NYSE commensurating changes in BSE at 3 years scale. Interestingly, at one year time scale, the two exchanges are phase locked only during the turbulent times, while at the scale of three year, in-phase nature is observed for a much longer time frame. The two year time period, having characteristics of both one and three year variations, acts as the transition regime. The normalised NYSE's stock value is found to Granger cause those of BSE, with a time lag of 9 months. Surprisingly, observed Granger causality of high frequency variations reveals BSE behaviour getting reflected in the NYSE index fluctuations, after a smaller time lag. This Janus faced relationship, shows that smaller stock exchanges may provide a natural setting for simulating market fluctuations of much bigger exchanges. This possibly arises due to the fact that high frequency fluctuations form an universal part of the financial time series, and are expected to exhibit similar characteristics in open market economies.

Modeling eye gaze patterns in clinician-patient interaction with lag sequential analysis.

PubMed

Montague, Enid; Xu, Jie; Chen, Ping-Yu; Asan, Onur; Barrett, Bruce P; Chewning, Betty

2011-10-01

The aim of this study was to examine whether lag sequential analysis could be used to describe eye gaze orientation between clinicians and patients in the medical encounter. This topic is particularly important as new technologies are implemented into multiuser health care settings in which trust is critical and nonverbal cues are integral to achieving trust. This analysis method could lead to design guidelines for technologies and more effective assessments of interventions. Nonverbal communication patterns are important aspects of clinician-patient interactions and may affect patient outcomes. The eye gaze behaviors of clinicians and patients in 110 videotaped medical encounters were analyzed using the lag sequential method to identify significant behavior sequences. Lag sequential analysis included both event-based lag and time-based lag. Results from event-based lag analysis showed that the patient's gaze followed that of the clinician, whereas the clinician's gaze did not follow the patient's. Time-based sequential analysis showed that responses from the patient usually occurred within 2 s after the initial behavior of the clinician. Our data suggest that the clinician's gaze significantly affects the medical encounter but that the converse is not true. Findings from this research have implications for the design of clinical work systems and modeling interactions. Similar research methods could be used to identify different behavior patterns in clinical settings (physical layout, technology, etc.) to facilitate and evaluate clinical work system designs.

Modeling Eye Gaze Patterns in Clinician-Patient Interaction with Lag Sequential Analysis

PubMed Central

Montague, E; Xu, J; Asan, O; Chen, P; Chewning, B; Barrett, B

2011-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to examine whether lag-sequential analysis could be used to describe eye gaze orientation between clinicians and patients in the medical encounter. This topic is particularly important as new technologies are implemented into multi-user health care settings where trust is critical and nonverbal cues are integral to achieving trust. This analysis method could lead to design guidelines for technologies and more effective assessments of interventions. Background Nonverbal communication patterns are important aspects of clinician-patient interactions and may impact patient outcomes. Method Eye gaze behaviors of clinicians and patients in 110-videotaped medical encounters were analyzed using the lag-sequential method to identify significant behavior sequences. Lag-sequential analysis included both event-based lag and time-based lag. Results Results from event-based lag analysis showed that the patients’ gaze followed that of clinicians, while clinicians did not follow patients. Time-based sequential analysis showed that responses from the patient usually occurred within two seconds after the initial behavior of the clinician. Conclusion Our data suggest that the clinician’s gaze significantly affects the medical encounter but not the converse. Application Findings from this research have implications for the design of clinical work systems and modeling interactions. Similar research methods could be used to identify different behavior patterns in clinical settings (physical layout, technology, etc.) to facilitate and evaluate clinical work system designs. PMID:22046723

In-vitro/in-vivo correlation of pulsatile drug release from press-coated tablet formulations: a pharmacoscintigraphic study in the beagle dog.

PubMed

Ghimire, Manish; McInnes, Fiona J; Watson, David G; Mullen, Alexander B; Stevens, Howard N E

2007-09-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the in-vitro and in-vivo performance of a press-coated tablet (PCT) intended for time delayed drug release, consisting of a rapidly disintegrating theophylline core tablet, press-coated with barrier granules containing glyceryl behenate (GB) and low-substituted hydroxypropylcellulose (L-HPC). The PCTs showed pulsatile release with a lag time dependent upon the GB and L-HPC composition of the barrier layer. In-vivo gamma-scintigraphic studies were carried out for PCTs containing GB:L-HPC at 65:35 w/w and 75:25 w/w in the barrier layer in four beagle dogs, in either the fed or fasted state. The in-vivo lag time in both the fed and fasted states did not differ significantly (p>0.05) from the in-vitro lag time. Additionally, no significant difference (p<0.05) between in-vivo fed and fasted disintegration times was observed, demonstrating that in-vivo performance of the PCT was not influenced by the presence or absence of food in the gastrointestinal tract. A distinct lag time was obtained prior to the appearance of drug in plasma and correlated (R2=0.98) with disintegration time observed from scintigraphic images. However, following disintegration, no difference in pharmacokinetic parameters (AUC(0-6 dis), K(el), Cmax) was observed. The current study highlighted the potential use of these formulations for chronopharmaceutical drug delivery.

Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans population dynamics by interval lagged weather data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Culex pipiens/restuans mosquitoes are important vectors for a variety of arthropod borne viral infections. In this study, the associations between 20 years of mosquito capture data and the time lagged environmental quantities daytime length, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed were used to generate a predictive model for the population dynamics of this vector species. Methods Mosquito population in the study area was represented by averaged time series of mosquitos counts captured at 6 sites in Cook County (Illinois, USA). Cross-correlation maps (CCMs) were compiled to investigate the association between mosquito abundances and environmental quantities. The results obtained from the CCMs were incorporated into a Poisson regression to generate a predictive model. To optimize the predictive model the time lags obtained from the CCMs were adjusted using a genetic algorithm. Results CCMs for weekly data showed a highly positive correlation of mosquito abundances with daytime length 4 to 5 weeks prior to capture (quantified by a Spearman rank order correlation of rS = 0.898) and with temperature during 2 weeks prior to capture (rS = 0.870). Maximal negative correlations were found for wind speed averaged over 3 week prior to capture (rS = −0.621). Cx. pipiens/restuans population dynamics was predicted by integrating the CCM results in Poisson regression models. They were used to simulate the average seasonal cycle of the mosquito abundance. Verification with observations resulted in a correlation of rS = 0.899 for daily and rS = 0.917 for weekly data. Applying the optimized models to the entire 20-years time series also resulted in a suitable fit with rS = 0.876 for daily and rS = 0.899 for weekly data. Conclusions The study demonstrates the application of interval lagged weather data to predict mosquito abundances with a feasible accuracy, especially when related to weekly Cx. pipiens/restuans populations. PMID:23634763

Solar wind structure suggested by bimodal correlations of solar wind speed and density between the spacecraft SOHO and Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogilvie, K. W.; Coplan, M. A.; Roberts, D. A.; Ipavich, F.

2007-08-01

We calculate the cross-spacecraft maximum lagged-cross-correlation coefficients for 2-hour intervals of solar wind speed and density measurements made by the plasma instruments on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Wind spacecraft over the period from 1996, the minimum of solar cycle 23, through the end of 2005. During this period, SOHO was located at L1, about 200 R E upstream from the Earth, while Wind spent most of the time in the interplanetary medium at distances of more than 100 R E from the Earth. Yearly histograms of the maximum, time-lagged correlation coefficients for both the speed and density are bimodal in shape, suggesting the existence of two distinct solar wind regimes. The larger correlation coefficients we suggest are due to structured solar wind, including discontinuities and shocks, while the smaller are likely due to Alfvénic turbulence. While further work will be required to firmly establish the physical nature of the two populations, the results of the analysis are consistent with a solar wind that consists of turbulence from quiet regions of the Sun interspersed with highly filamentary structures largely convected from regions in the inner solar corona. The bimodal appearance of the distributions is less evident in the solar wind speed than in the density correlations, consistent with the observation that the filamentary structures are convected with nearly constant speed by the time they reach 1 AU. We also find that at solar minimum the fits for the density correlations have smaller high-correlation components than at solar maximum. We interpret this as due to the presence of more relatively uniform Alfvénic regions at solar minimum than at solar maximum.

Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

2015-03-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

On modeling the paleohydrologic response of closed-basin lakes to fluctuations in climate: Methods, applications, and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ganming; Schwartz, Franklin W.

2014-04-01

Climate reconstructions using tree rings and lake sediments have contributed significantly to the understanding of Holocene climates. Approaches focused specifically on reconstructing the temporal water-level response of lakes, however, are much less developed. This paper describes a statistical correlation approach based on time series with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values derived from instrumental records or tree rings as a basis for reconstructing stage hydrographs for closed-basin lakes. We use a distributed lag correlation model to calculate a variable, ωt that represents the water level of a lake at any time t as a result of integrated climatic forcing from preceding years. The method was validated using both synthetic and measured lake-stage data and the study found that a lake's "memory" of climate fades as time passes, following an exponential-decay function at rates determined by the correlation time lag. Calculated trends in ωt for Moon Lake, Rice Lake, and Lake Mina from A.D. 1401 to 1860 compared well with the established chronologies (salinity, moisture, and Mg/Ca ratios) reconstructed from sediments. This method provides an independent approach for developing high-resolution information on lake behaviors in preinstrumental times and has been able to identify problems of climate signal deterioration in sediment-based climate reconstructions in lakes with a long time lag.

Correlation between National Influenza Surveillance Data and Search Queries from Mobile Devices and Desktops in South Korea

PubMed Central

Seo, Dong-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Kim, Sung-Hoon; Ryoo, Seung Mok; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lee, Jae Ho; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo

2016-01-01

Background Digital surveillance using internet search queries can improve both the sensitivity and timeliness of the detection of a health event, such as an influenza outbreak. While it has recently been estimated that the mobile search volume surpasses the desktop search volume and mobile search patterns differ from desktop search patterns, the previous digital surveillance systems did not distinguish mobile and desktop search queries. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of mobile and desktop search queries in terms of digital influenza surveillance. Methods and Results The study period was from September 6, 2010 through August 30, 2014, which consisted of four epidemiological years. Influenza-like illness (ILI) and virologic surveillance data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used. A total of 210 combined queries from our previous survey work were used for this study. Mobile and desktop weekly search data were extracted from Naver, which is the largest search engine in Korea. Spearman’s correlation analysis was used to examine the correlation of the mobile and desktop data with ILI and virologic data in Korea. We also performed lag correlation analysis. We observed that the influenza surveillance performance of mobile search queries matched or exceeded that of desktop search queries over time. The mean correlation coefficients of mobile search queries and the number of queries with an r-value of ≥ 0.7 equaled or became greater than those of desktop searches over the four epidemiological years. A lag correlation analysis of up to two weeks showed similar trends. Conclusion Our study shows that mobile search queries for influenza surveillance have equaled or even become greater than desktop search queries over time. In the future development of influenza surveillance using search queries, the recognition of changing trend of mobile search data could be necessary. PMID:27391028

Correlation between National Influenza Surveillance Data and Search Queries from Mobile Devices and Desktops in South Korea.

PubMed

Shin, Soo-Yong; Kim, Taerim; Seo, Dong-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Kim, Sung-Hoon; Ryoo, Seung Mok; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lee, Jae Ho; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo

2016-01-01

Digital surveillance using internet search queries can improve both the sensitivity and timeliness of the detection of a health event, such as an influenza outbreak. While it has recently been estimated that the mobile search volume surpasses the desktop search volume and mobile search patterns differ from desktop search patterns, the previous digital surveillance systems did not distinguish mobile and desktop search queries. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of mobile and desktop search queries in terms of digital influenza surveillance. The study period was from September 6, 2010 through August 30, 2014, which consisted of four epidemiological years. Influenza-like illness (ILI) and virologic surveillance data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used. A total of 210 combined queries from our previous survey work were used for this study. Mobile and desktop weekly search data were extracted from Naver, which is the largest search engine in Korea. Spearman's correlation analysis was used to examine the correlation of the mobile and desktop data with ILI and virologic data in Korea. We also performed lag correlation analysis. We observed that the influenza surveillance performance of mobile search queries matched or exceeded that of desktop search queries over time. The mean correlation coefficients of mobile search queries and the number of queries with an r-value of ≥ 0.7 equaled or became greater than those of desktop searches over the four epidemiological years. A lag correlation analysis of up to two weeks showed similar trends. Our study shows that mobile search queries for influenza surveillance have equaled or even become greater than desktop search queries over time. In the future development of influenza surveillance using search queries, the recognition of changing trend of mobile search data could be necessary.

DCCA analysis of renewable and conventional energy prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, Aureliano Sancho Souza; Rivera-Castro, Miguel Angel; Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva

2018-01-01

Here we investigate the inter-influence of oil prices and renewable energy sources. The non-stationary time series are scrutinized within the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) framework, where the resulting DCCA coefficient provides a useful and reliable index to the evaluate the cross correlation between events at the same time instant as well as at a suitably chosen time lags. The analysis is based on the quotient of two successive daily closing oil prices and composite indices of renewable energy sources in USA and Europe in the period 2006-2015, which was subject to several social and economic driving forces, as the increase of social pressure in favor of the use of non-fossil energy sources and the worldwide economic crisis that started in 2008. The DCCA coefficient is evaluated for different window sizes, extracting information for short and long term correlation between the indices. Particularly, strong correlation between the behavior of the two distinct economic sectors are observed for large time intervals during the worst period of the economic crisis (2008-2012), hinting at a very cautious behavior of the economic agents. Before and after this period, the behavior of two economic sectors are overwhelmingly uncorrelated or very weakly correlated. The results reported here may be useful to select proper strategies in future similar scenarios.

Performance Analysis of a De-correlated Modified Code Tracking Loop for Synchronous DS-CDMA System under Multiuser Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ya-Ting; Wong, Wai-Ki; Leung, Shu-Hung; Zhu, Yue-Sheng

This paper presents the performance analysis of a De-correlated Modified Code Tracking Loop (D-MCTL) for synchronous direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) systems under multiuser environment. Previous studies have shown that the imbalance of multiple access interference (MAI) in the time lead and time lag portions of the signal causes tracking bias or instability problem in the traditional correlating tracking loop like delay lock loop (DLL) or modified code tracking loop (MCTL). In this paper, we exploit the de-correlating technique to combat the MAI at the on-time code position of the MCTL. Unlike applying the same technique to DLL which requires an extensive search algorithm to compensate the noise imbalance which may introduce small tracking bias under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the proposed D-MCTL has much lower computational complexity and exhibits zero tracking bias for the whole range of SNR, regardless of the number of interfering users. Furthermore, performance analysis and simulations based on Gold codes show that the proposed scheme has better mean square tracking error, mean-time-to-lose-lock and near-far resistance than the other tracking schemes, including traditional DLL (T-DLL), traditional MCTL (T-MCTL) and modified de-correlated DLL (MD-DLL).

Calculation of power spectrums from digital time series with missing data points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murray, C. W., Jr.

1980-01-01

Two algorithms are developed for calculating power spectrums from the autocorrelation function when there are missing data points in the time series. Both methods use an average sampling interval to compute lagged products. One method, the correlation function power spectrum, takes the discrete Fourier transform of the lagged products directly to obtain the spectrum, while the other, the modified Blackman-Tukey power spectrum, takes the Fourier transform of the mean lagged products. Both techniques require fewer calculations than other procedures since only 50% to 80% of the maximum lags need be calculated. The algorithms are compared with the Fourier transform power spectrum and two least squares procedures (all for an arbitrary data spacing). Examples are given showing recovery of frequency components from simulated periodic data where portions of the time series are missing and random noise has been added to both the time points and to values of the function. In addition the methods are compared using real data. All procedures performed equally well in detecting periodicities in the data.

Leverage effect and its causality in the Korea composite stock price index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chang-Yong

2012-02-01

In this paper, we investigate the leverage effect and its causality in the time series of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from November of 1997 to September of 2010. The leverage effect, which can be quantitatively expressed as a negative correlation between past return and future volatility, is measured by using the cross-correlation coefficient of different time lags between the two time series of the return and the volatility. We find that past return and future volatility are negatively correlated and that the cross correlation is moderate and decays over 60 trading days. We also carry out a partial correlation analysis in order to confirm that the negative correlation between past return and future volatility is neither an artifact nor influenced by the traded volume. To determine the causality of the leverage effect within the decay time, we additionally estimate the cross correlation between past volatility and future return. With the estimate, we perform a statistical hypothesis test to demonstrate that the causal relation is in favor of the return influencing the volatility rather than the other way around.

Retrospective analysis of snake victims in Northern India admitted in a tertiary level institute

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Syed Moied; Nadeem, Abu; Islam, Mohd. Sabihul; Agarwal, Shiwani; Singh, Lalit

2012-01-01

Context: Snake bites are the common cause of morbidity and mortality in tropical countries. Aims: To analyze the outcome of snake bite victims Settings and Design: Retrospective analysis of data from Intensive care unit, Department of Anesthesiology. Materials and Methods: All the patients admitted in the intensive care unit for snake bite management during the year May 2004 - April 2009 were retrospectively reviewed. The data included age, sex, month and time of incident, site of bite, dose of anti--snake venom, time of anti--snake venom, administration, duration of mechanical ventilation, complications and death of a victim. Statistical analysis used: Pearson's correlation test, paired samples t-test. Results and Conclusions: 113 patients reported to the Accident and Emergency with history of snake bite. 26 patients were referred to other hospital, 17 patients were brought dead, and 70 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit. In 59 snake-bite victims, maximum data could be recovered. Krait was the most common type of snake bite reported. There was a male preponderance (69.4%) with age ranging between 20 and 40 years (52.5%). The mean lag time (time elapsed between bite and first dose of anti--snake venom) was 5.3 ± 1.4 h and the mean anti-snake venom dose was 12.3 ± 2.4 vials. There was a positive and significant correlation between lag time and total dose of anti--snake venom (correlation coefficient =0.956, P<0.0001). Overall 72.9% patients required mechanical ventilation with a mean duration of 56.2 ± 16.1 h. 10.2% patients sustained cardiac arrest, 8.7% patients developed ventilator associated pneumonia, 6.7% suffered mild anti-snake venom reaction, 6.7% had hypotension and 5.1% patients developed renal failure. The overall mortality was 5.1%. PMID:22345945

Cross-Correlation of Motor Activity Signals from dc-Magnetoencephalography, Near-Infrared Spectroscopy, and Electromyography

PubMed Central

Sander, Tilmann H.; Leistner, Stefanie; Wabnitz, Heidrun; Mackert, Bruno-Marcel; Macdonald, Rainer; Trahms, Lutz

2010-01-01

Neuronal and vascular responses due to finger movements were synchronously measured using dc-magnetoencephalography (dcMEG) and time-resolved near-infrared spectroscopy (trNIRS). The finger movements were monitored with electromyography (EMG). Cortical responses related to the finger movement sequence were extracted by independent component analysis from both the dcMEG and the trNIRS data. The temporal relations between EMG rate, dcMEG, and trNIRS responses were assessed pairwise using the cross-correlation function (CCF), which does not require epoch averaging. A positive lag on a scale of seconds was found for the maximum of the CCF between dcMEG and trNIRS. A zero lag is observed for the CCF between dcMEG and EMG. Additionally this CCF exhibits oscillations at the frequency of individual finger movements. These findings show that the dcMEG with a bandwidth up to 8 Hz records both slow and faster neuronal responses, whereas the vascular response is confirmed to change on a scale of seconds. PMID:20145717

Cross-correlation of motor activity signals from dc-magnetoencephalography, near-infrared spectroscopy, and electromyography.

PubMed

Sander, Tilmann H; Leistner, Stefanie; Wabnitz, Heidrun; Mackert, Bruno-Marcel; Macdonald, Rainer; Trahms, Lutz

2010-01-01

Neuronal and vascular responses due to finger movements were synchronously measured using dc-magnetoencephalography (dcMEG) and time-resolved near-infrared spectroscopy (trNIRS). The finger movements were monitored with electromyography (EMG). Cortical responses related to the finger movement sequence were extracted by independent component analysis from both the dcMEG and the trNIRS data. The temporal relations between EMG rate, dcMEG, and trNIRS responses were assessed pairwise using the cross-correlation function (CCF), which does not require epoch averaging. A positive lag on a scale of seconds was found for the maximum of the CCF between dcMEG and trNIRS. A zero lag is observed for the CCF between dcMEG and EMG. Additionally this CCF exhibits oscillations at the frequency of individual finger movements. These findings show that the dcMEG with a bandwidth up to 8 Hz records both slow and faster neuronal responses, whereas the vascular response is confirmed to change on a scale of seconds.

Quantitative EEG analysis using error reduction ratio-causality test; validation on simulated and real EEG data.

PubMed

Sarrigiannis, Ptolemaios G; Zhao, Yifan; Wei, Hua-Liang; Billings, Stephen A; Fotheringham, Jayne; Hadjivassiliou, Marios

2014-01-01

To introduce a new method of quantitative EEG analysis in the time domain, the error reduction ratio (ERR)-causality test. To compare performance against cross-correlation and coherence with phase measures. A simulation example was used as a gold standard to assess the performance of ERR-causality, against cross-correlation and coherence. The methods were then applied to real EEG data. Analysis of both simulated and real EEG data demonstrates that ERR-causality successfully detects dynamically evolving changes between two signals, with very high time resolution, dependent on the sampling rate of the data. Our method can properly detect both linear and non-linear effects, encountered during analysis of focal and generalised seizures. We introduce a new quantitative EEG method of analysis. It detects real time levels of synchronisation in the linear and non-linear domains. It computes directionality of information flow with corresponding time lags. This novel dynamic real time EEG signal analysis unveils hidden neural network interactions with a very high time resolution. These interactions cannot be adequately resolved by the traditional methods of coherence and cross-correlation, which provide limited results in the presence of non-linear effects and lack fidelity for changes appearing over small periods of time. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the time lags of the LIGO signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creswell, James; von Hausegger, Sebastian; Jackson, Andrew D.; Liu, Hao; Naselsky, Pavel

2017-08-01

To date, the LIGO collaboration has detected three gravitational wave (GW) events appearing in both its Hanford and Livingston detectors. In this article we reexamine the LIGO data with regard to correlations between the two detectors. With special focus on GW150914, we report correlations in the detector noise which, at the time of the event, happen to be maximized for the same time lag as that found for the event itself. Specifically, we analyze correlations in the calibration lines in the vicinity of 35 Hz as well as the residual noise in the data after subtraction of the best-fit theoretical templates. The residual noise for the other two events, GW151226 and GW170104, exhibits similar behavior. A clear distinction between signal and noise therefore remains to be established in order to determine the contribution of gravitational waves to the detected signals.

On the time lags of the LIGO signals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Creswell, James; Von Hausegger, Sebastian; Liu, Hao

To date, the LIGO collaboration has detected three gravitational wave (GW) events appearing in both its Hanford and Livingston detectors. In this article we reexamine the LIGO data with regard to correlations between the two detectors. With special focus on GW150914, we report correlations in the detector noise which, at the time of the event, happen to be maximized for the same time lag as that found for the event itself. Specifically, we analyze correlations in the calibration lines in the vicinity of 35 Hz as well as the residual noise in the data after subtraction of the best-fit theoreticalmore » templates. The residual noise for the other two events, GW151226 and GW170104, exhibits similar behavior. A clear distinction between signal and noise therefore remains to be established in order to determine the contribution of gravitational waves to the detected signals.« less

Climate variation and incidence of Ross river virus in Cairns, Australia: a time-series analysis.

PubMed Central

Tong, S; Hu, W

2001-01-01

In this study we assessed the impact of climate variability on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission and validated an epidemic-forecasting model in Cairns, Australia. Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The cross-correlation function (CCF) showed that maximum temperature in the current month and rainfall and relative humidity at a lag of 2 months were positively and significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv, whereas relative humidity at a lag of 5 months was inversely associated with the RRv transmission. We developed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models on the data collected between 1985 to 1994, and then validated the models using the data collected between 1995 and 1996. The results show that the relative humidity at a lag of 5 months (p < 0.001) and the rainfall at a lag of 2 months (p < 0.05) appeared to play significant roles in the transmission of RRv disease in Cairns. Furthermore, the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. PMID:11748035

Six-month longitudinal associations between cognitive functioning and distress among the community-based elderly in Hong Kong: A cross-lagged panel analysis.

PubMed

Leung, Chantel Joanne; Cheng, Lewis; Yu, Junhong; Yiend, Jenny; Lee, Tatia M C

2018-07-01

Although previous studies have extensively documented the cross-sectional relationship between cognitive impairment and psychological distress, findings relating to their longitudinal associations remains mixed. The present study examines the longitudinal associations and mutual influence between cognitive functioning and psychological distress across six months among community-dwelling elderly in Hong Kong. A total of 162 older adults (40 males; M age  = 69.8 years, SD = 6.4) were administered objective and subjective measures of cognitive functioning, as well as self-reported ratings of distress, at two time points six months apart. Using structural equation modeling, we tested the cross-lagged relationships between cognitive functioning and distress. Our cross-lagged model indicated that cognitive functioning at baseline significantly predicted subsequent psychological distress. However, distress was not significantly associated with subsequent cognitive functioning. Additionally, the objective and subjective measures of cognitive functioning were not significantly correlated. These findings suggested that distress may occur as a consequence of poorer cognitive functioning in elderly, but not vice versa. The lack of correlation between objective and subjective cognitive measures suggested that the participants may not have adequate insight into their cognitive abilities. The implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-20

way correlations. For instance, if crime waves are associated with increases in unemployment or drops in police presence, that would be hard to...time lag, ai , bj are parameters in a linear combination, 1, 2 are error terms, and Prepared for Dr. Harold Hawkins US Government Contract...selecting a proper representation for the underlying data. A qualitative comparison of GC and DTW methods on World Bank data indicates that both methods

Temporal changes in deep-sea sponge populations are correlated to changes in surface climate and food supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Amanda S.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Smith, Kenneth L.

2012-12-01

Density and average size of two species of abyssal sponges were analyzed at Station M (∼4100 m depth) over an 18-year time-series (1989-2006) using camera sled transects. Both sponge taxa share a similar plate-like morphology despite being within different families, and both showed similar variations in density and average body size over time, suggesting that the same factors may control the demographics of both species. Peaks in significant cross correlations between increases in particulate organic carbon flux and corresponding increases in sponge density occurred with a time lag of 13 months. Sponge density also fluctuated with changes in two climate indices: the NOI with a time lag of 18 months and NPGO with a time lag of 15 months. The results support previous suggestions that increased particulate organic carbon flux may induce recruitment or regeneration in deep-sea sponges. It is unknown whether the appearance of young individuals results from recruitment, regeneration, or both, but the population responses to seasonal and inter-annual changes in food supply demonstrate that sponge populations are dynamic and are capable of responding to inter-annual changes despite being sessile and presumably slow-growing.

A 32-channel photon counting module with embedded auto/cross-correlators for real-time parallel fluorescence correlation spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, S.; Labanca, I.; Rech, I.

2014-10-15

Fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) is a well-established technique to study binding interactions or the diffusion of fluorescently labeled biomolecules in vitro and in vivo. Fast FCS experiments require parallel data acquisition and analysis which can be achieved by exploiting a multi-channel Single Photon Avalanche Diode (SPAD) array and a corresponding multi-input correlator. This paper reports a 32-channel FPGA based correlator able to perform 32 auto/cross-correlations simultaneously over a lag-time ranging from 10 ns up to 150 ms. The correlator is included in a 32 × 1 SPAD array module, providing a compact and flexible instrument for high throughput FCS experiments.more » However, some inherent features of SPAD arrays, namely afterpulsing and optical crosstalk effects, may introduce distortions in the measurement of auto- and cross-correlation functions. We investigated these limitations to assess their impact on the module and evaluate possible workarounds.« less

Low Luminosity States of the Black Hole Candidate GX 339-4. 2; Timing Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowak, Michael A.; Wilms, Joern; Dove, James B.

1999-01-01

Here we present timing analysis of a set of eight Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations of the black hole candidate GX 339-4 that were taken during its hard/low state. On long time scales, the RXTE All Sky Monitor data reveal evidence of a 240 day periodicity, comparable to timescales expected from warped, precessing accretion disks. On short timescales all observations save one show evidence of a persistent f(qpo approximately equals 0.3 Hz quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO)). The broad band (10 (exp -3) to 10 (exp2) Hz) power appears to be dominated by two independent processes that can be modeled as very broad Lorentzians with Q approximately less than - 1. The coherence function between soft and hard photon variability shows that if these are truly independent processes, then they are individually coherent, but they are incoherent with one another. This is evidenced by the fact that the coherence function between the hard and soft variability is near unity between 5 x 10 (exp -3) but shows evidence of a dip at f approximately equals 1 Hz. This is the region of overlap between the broad Lorentzian fits to the Power Spectral Density (PSD). Similar to Cyg X-1, the coherence also drops dramatically at frequencies approximately greater than 1O Hz. Also similar to Cyg X-1, the hard photon variability is seen to lag the soft photon variability with the lag time increasing with decreasing Fourier frequency. The magnitude of this time lag appears to be positively correlated with the flux of GX 339-4. We discuss all of these observations in light of current theoretical models of both black hole spectra and temporal variability.

Signature of Two-Component Advective Flow in several Black Hole candidates obtained through time-of-arrival analysis of RXTE/ASM Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Arindam; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.

2018-05-01

We study several Galactic black hole candidates using long-time RXTE/ASM X-ray data to search for telltale signatures of differences in viscous timescales in the two components used in the Two-Component Advective Flow (TCAF) paradigm. In high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) mainly winds are accreted. This nearly inviscid and dominant sub-Keplerian flow falls almost freely towards the black hole. A standard Keplerian disc can form out of this sub-Keplerian matter in presence of a significant viscosity and could be small in size. However, in low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs), highly viscous and larger Keplerian accretion disc is expected to form inside the sub-Keplerian disc due to the Roche-lobe overflow. Due to two viscous timescales in these two components, it is expected to have a larger lag between the times-of-arrival of these components in LMXBs than that in HMXBs. Direct cross-correlation between the photon fluxes will not reveal this lag since they lack linear dependence; however, they are coupled through the viscous processes which bring in both matter. To quantify the aforesaid time lag, we introduce an index (Θ), which is a proxy of the usual photon index (Γ). Thus, when Θ, being dynamically responsive to both fluxes, is considered as a reference, the arrival time lag between the two fluxes in LMXBs is found to be much larger than that in HMXBs. Our result establishes the presence of two dynamical components in accretion and shows that the Keplerian disc size indeed is smaller in HMXBs as compared to that in LMXBs.

Subjective Positive and Negative Sleep Variables Differentially Affect Cellular Immune Activity in a Breast Cancer Survivor: A Time-series Analysis Approach.

PubMed

Singer, Magdalena; Burbaum, Christina; Fritzsche, Kurt; Peterlini, Sylvia; Bliem, Harald R; Ocaña-Peinado, Francisco M; Fuchs, Dietmar; Schubert, Christian

2017-01-01

This study on a breast cancer survivor suffering from cancer-related fatigue (CaRF) and depression investigated the bidirectional relationship between cellular immune activity and subjective sleep. The 49-year-old patient (breast cancer diagnosis 5 years before the study, currently in remission) collected her full urine output for 28 days in 12-h intervals (8:00 p.m. to 8:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.). These urine samples were used to determine urinary neopterin (cellular immune activation marker) and creatinine concentrations via high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC). Each morning, the patient answered questions on five sleep variables: sleep quality (SQ), sleep recreational value (SRV), total sleep time (TST), total wake time (TWT), and awakenings during sleep period (ADS). For the purpose of this study, the time series of the nighttime urinary neopterin levels and the five sleep variables were determined. Using centered moving average (CMA) smoothing and cross-correlational analysis, this study showed that increases in the positive sleep variables SQ and SRV were followed by urinary neopterin concentration decreases after 96-120 h (SQ, lag 4: r  = -0.411; p  = 0.044; SRV: lag 4: r  = -0.472; p  = 0.021) and 120-144 h (SRV, lag 5: r  = -0.464; p  = 0.026). Increases in the negative sleep variable TWT, by contrast, were followed by increases in urinary neopterin concentrations 72-96 h later (lag 3: r  = 0.522; p  = 0.009). No systematic effects in the other direction, i.e., from urinary neopterin levels to sleep, were observed in this study. Although preliminary, the findings of this study highlight the benefit of carefully investigating temporal delays and directions of effects when studying the dynamic relationship between sleep and immune variables in the natural context of everyday life.

Recovery of heart rate variability after treadmill exercise analyzed by lagged Poincaré plot and spectral characteristics.

PubMed

Shi, Ping; Hu, Sijung; Yu, Hongliu

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the recovery of heart rate variability (HRV) after treadmill exercise and to investigate the autonomic nervous system response after exercise. Frequency domain indices, i.e., LF(ms 2 ), HF(ms 2 ), LF(n.u.), HF(n.u.) and LF/HF, and lagged Poincaré plot width (SD1 m ) and length (SD2 m ) were introduced for comparison between the baseline period (Pre-E) before treadmill running and two periods after treadmill running (Post-E1 and Post-E2). The correlations between lagged Poincaré plot indices and frequency domain indices were applied to reveal the long-range correlation between linear and nonlinear indices during the recovery of HRV. The results suggested entirely attenuated autonomic nervous activity to the heart following the treadmill exercise. After the treadmill running, the sympathetic nerves achieved dominance and the parasympathetic activity was suppressed, which lasted for more than 4 min. The correlation coefficients between lagged Poincaré plot indices and spectral power indices could separate not only Pre-E and two sessions after the treadmill running, but also the two sessions in recovery periods, i.e., Post-E1 and Post-E2. Lagged Poincaré plot as an innovative nonlinear method showed a better performance over linear frequency domain analysis and conventional nonlinear Poincaré plot.

Modeling of Engine Parameters for Condition-Based Maintenance of the MTU Series 2000 Diesel Engine

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

are suitable. To model the behavior of the engine, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) time series model of engine speed and exhaust gas... time series model of engine speed and exhaust gas temperature is derived. The lag length for ARDL is determined by whitening of residuals using the...15 B. REGRESSION ANALYSIS ....................................................................15 1. Time Series Analysis

Analysis and attenuation of artifacts caused by spatially and temporally correlated noise sources in Green's function estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, E. R.; Dou, S.; Lindsey, N.; Chang, J. P.; Biondi, B. C.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Wagner, A. M.; Bjella, K.; Daley, T. M.; Freifeld, B. M.; Robertson, M.; Ulrich, C.; Williams, E. F.

2016-12-01

Localized strong sources of noise in an array have been shown to cause artifacts in Green's function estimates obtained via cross-correlation. Their effect is often reduced through the use of cross-coherence. Beyond independent localized sources, temporally or spatially correlated sources of noise frequently occur in practice but violate basic assumptions of much of the theory behind ambient noise Green's function retrieval. These correlated noise sources can occur in urban environments due to transportation infrastructure, or in areas around industrial operations like pumps running at CO2 sequestration sites or oil and gas drilling sites. Better understanding of these artifacts should help us develop and justify methods for their automatic removal from Green's function estimates. We derive expected artifacts in cross-correlations from several distributions of correlated noise sources including point sources that are exact time-lagged repeats of each other and Gaussian-distributed in space and time with covariance that exponentially decays. Assuming the noise distribution stays stationary over time, the artifacts become more coherent as more ambient noise is included in the Green's function estimates. We support our results with simple computational models. We observed these artifacts in Green's function estimates from a 2015 ambient noise study in Fairbanks, AK where a trenched distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) array was deployed to collect ambient noise alongside a road with the goal of developing a permafrost thaw monitoring system. We found that joints in the road repeatedly being hit by cars travelling at roughly the speed limit led to artifacts similar to those expected when several points are time-lagged copies of each other. We also show test results of attenuating the effects of these sources during time-lapse monitoring of an active thaw test in the same location with noise detected by a 2D trenched DAS array.

International Space Station Future Correlation Analysis Improvements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laible, Michael R.; Pinnamaneni, Murthy; Sugavanam, Sujatha; Grygier, Michael

2018-01-01

Ongoing modal analyses and model correlation are performed on different configurations of the International Space Station (ISS). These analyses utilize on-orbit dynamic measurements collected using four main ISS instrumentation systems: External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS), Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS), and Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). Remote Sensor Units (RSUs) are network relay stations that acquire flight data from sensors. Measured data is stored in the Remote Sensor Unit (RSU) until it receives a command to download data via RF to the Network Control Unit (NCU). Since each RSU has its own clock, it is necessary to synchronize measurements before analysis. Imprecise synchronization impacts analysis results. A study was performed to evaluate three different synchronization techniques: (i) measurements visually aligned to analytical time-response data using model comparison, (ii) Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD), and (iii) lag from cross-correlation to align measurements. This paper presents the results of this study.

Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andres; Bloch, Michael H.

2011-01-01

Objective: To determine whether there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method: We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years of age with major depressive disorder. Our main…

Refining Collective Coordinates and Improving Free Energy Representation in Variational Enhanced Sampling.

PubMed

Yang, Yi Isaac; Parrinello, Michele

2018-06-12

Collective variables are used often in many enhanced sampling methods, and their choice is a crucial factor in determining sampling efficiency. However, at times, searching for good collective variables can be challenging. In a recent paper, we combined time-lagged independent component analysis with well-tempered metadynamics in order to obtain improved collective variables from metadynamics runs that use lower quality collective variables [ McCarty, J.; Parrinello, M. J. Chem. Phys. 2017 , 147 , 204109 ]. In this work, we extend these ideas to variationally enhanced sampling. This leads to an efficient scheme that is able to make use of the many advantages of the variational scheme. We apply the method to alanine-3 in water. From an alanine-3 variationally enhanced sampling trajectory in which all the six dihedral angles are biased, we extract much better collective variables able to describe in exquisite detail the protein complex free energy surface in a low dimensional representation. The success of this investigation is helped by a more accurate way of calculating the correlation functions needed in the time-lagged independent component analysis and from the introduction of a new basis set to describe the dihedral angles arrangement.

The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

2018-01-01

The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

The cross wavelet analysis of dengue fever variability influenced by meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

The multiyear variation of meteorological conditions induced by climate change causes the changing diffusion pattern of infectious disease and serious epidemic situation. Among them, dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne diseases distributed in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Dengue virus is transmitted by several species of mosquito and causing lots amount of human deaths every year around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of meteorological variables to the temporal variation of dengue fever epidemic in southern Taiwan. Several extreme and average indices of meteorological variables, i.e. temperature and humidity, were used for this analysis, including averaged, maximum and minimum temperature, and average rainfall, maximum 1-hr rainfall, and maximum 24-hr rainfall. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship of meteorological variables and dengue fever epidemic, finding the non-stationary time-frequency relationship and phase lag effects of those time series from 1998-2011 by using cross wavelet method. Results show that meteorological variables all have a significant time-frequency correlation region to dengue fever epidemic in frequency about one year (52 weeks). The associated phases can range from 0 to 90 degrees (0-13 weeks lag from meteorological factors to dengue incidences). Keywords: dengue fever, cross wavelet analysis, meteorological factor

The enso signal in the lower stratosphere: propagation via rossby waves.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, N.; Garcia Herrera, R.; Garcia, R.; Gallego, D.; Gimeno, L.; Hernandez, E.; Ribera, P.

2003-04-01

The ENSO signal on the lower stratosphere has been analyzed through the study of the relationship between SST in the Tropical Pacific and lower stratospheric temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) using the t4 channel, which is sensitive to lower stratospheric temperature. Lagged point correlations have been calculated between the Niño3.4 index and MSU t4 monthly anomaly series at each grid point for the whole globe from January 1979 through December 2000. Correlation values are very similar in both tropics and extratropics, but their signs are opposite: positive in extratropical regions and negative in the tropics. Moreover, the significant correlation signal is longer lasting at middle latitudes, from lag 9 to lag 6, and much shorter in the Tropics, where it is significant only at lags 0 and 3. In the extratropical area, four regions are significant: Eurasia, the Southern Indian Ocean, and the North and South Pacific Oceans. The signal in Eurasia is the first to be observed (at lag 9) and it could be considered as a predictor of extreme ENSO events. The Pacific Ocean shows the PNA and PSA patterns. There, the signal appears earlier in the Southern Hemisphere (lag 6) because wind conditions at boreal summer (usually lag 6) do not favour the propagation of Rossby waves into the stratosphere. Further, the shape of the correlation patterns suggests that only planetary waves are able to propagate the ENSO signal into the stratosphere. In the tropics, the ENSO signal takes the form of a pair of Rossby gyres, observed in the Pacific Ocean at lags 0 and 3 as two regions of significant correlation located symmetricaly north and south of the Equator. The same analysis has been carried out for a period without any extreme events (SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region smaller than 1 standard desviation), in which case no signal is observed in the lower stratosphere. This suggests that only strong ENSO (defined by anomalies larger than 1 standard desviation in the Niño3.4 area) produce a signal in the stratosphere. On the other hand, the signal does not appear to show any influence from the QBO. Taken together, all these results show that Rossby waves play a central role in the propagation of the ENSO signal into the stratosphere.

Effect of Environmental Factors on Low Weight in Non-Premature Births: A Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Díaz, Julio; Arroyo, Virginia; Ortiz, Cristina; Carmona, Rocío; Linares, Cristina

2016-01-01

Exposure to pollutants during pregnancy has been related to adverse birth outcomes. LBW can give rise to lifelong impairments. Prematurity is the leading cause of LBW, yet few studies have attempted to analyse how environmental factors can influence LBW in infants who are not premature. This study therefore sought to analyse the influence of air pollution, noise levels and temperature on LBW in non-premature births in Madrid during the period 2001-2009. Ecological time-series study to assess the impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 concentrations, noise levels, and temperatures on LBW among non-premature infants across the period 2001-2009. Our analysis extended to infants having birth weights of 1,500 g to 2,500 g (VLBW) and less than 1,500 g (ELBW). Environmental variables were lagged until 37 weeks with respect to the date of birth, and cross-correlation functions were used to identify explaining lags. Results were quantified using Poisson regression models. Across the study period 298,705 births were registered in Madrid, 3,290 of which had LBW; of this latter total, 1,492 were non-premature. PM2.5 was the only pollutant to show an association with the three variables of LBW in non-premature births. This association occurred at around the third month of gestation for LBW and VLBW (LBW: lag 23 and VLBW: lag 25), and at around the eighth month of gestation for ELBW (lag 6). Leqd was linked to LBW at lag zero. The RR of PM2.5 on LBW was 1.01 (1.00 1.03). The RR of Leqd on LBW was 1.09 (0.99 1.19)(p<0.1). The results obtained indicate that PM2.5 had influence on LBW. The adoption of measures aimed at reducing the number of vehicles would serve to lower pregnant women's exposure. In the case of noise should be limited the exposure to high levels during the final weeks of pregnancy.

Temporal dynamic of malaria in a suburban area along the Niger River.

PubMed

Sissoko, Mahamadou Soumana; Sissoko, Kourane; Kamate, Bourama; Samake, Yacouba; Goita, Siaka; Dabo, Abdoulaye; Yena, Mama; Dessay, Nadine; Piarroux, Renaud; Doumbo, Ogobara K; Gaudart, Jean

2017-10-23

Even if rainfall and temperature are factors classically associated to malaria, little is known about other meteorological factors, their variability and combinations related to malaria, in association with river height variations. Furthermore, in suburban area, urbanization and growing population density should be assessed in relation to these environmental factors. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of combined environmental, meteorological and hydrological factors on malaria incidence through time in the context of urbanization. Population observational data were prospectively collected. Clinical malaria was defined as the presence of parasites in addition to clinical symptoms. Meteorological and hydrological factors were measured daily. For each factors variation indices were estimated. Urbanization was yearly estimated assessing satellite imaging and field investigations. Principal component analysis was used for dimension reduction and factors combination. Lags between malaria incidences and the main components were assessed by cross-correlation functions. Generalized additive model was used to assess relative impact of different environmental components, taking into account lags, and modelling non-linear relationships. Change-point analysis was used to determine transmission periods within years. Malaria incidences were dominated by annual periodicity and varied through time without modification of the dynamic, with no impact of the urbanization. The main meteorological factor associated with malaria was a combination of evaporation, humidity and rainfall, with a lag of 3 months. The relationship between combined temperature factors showed a linear impact until reaching high temperatures limiting malaria incidence, with a lag 3.25 months. Height and variation of the river were related to malaria incidence (respectively 6 week lag and no lag). The study emphasizes no decreasing trend of malaria incidence despite accurate access to care and control strategies in accordance to international recommendations. Furthermore, no decreasing trend was showed despite the urbanization of the area. Malaria transmission remain increase 3 months after the beginning of the dry season. Addition to evaporation versus humidity/rainfall, nonlinear relationship for temperature and river height and variations have to be taken into account when implementing malaria control programmes.

A modification of the Regional Nutrient Management model (ReNuMa) to identify long-term changes in riverine nitrogen sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Minpeng; Liu, Yanmei; Wang, Jiahui; Dahlgren, Randy A.; Chen, Dingjiang

2018-06-01

Source apportionment is critical for guiding development of efficient watershed nitrogen (N) pollution control measures. The ReNuMa (Regional Nutrient Management) model, a semi-empirical, semi-process-oriented model with modest data requirements, has been widely used for riverine N source apportionment. However, the ReNuMa model contains limitations for addressing long-term N dynamics by ignoring temporal changes in atmospheric N deposition rates and N-leaching lag effects. This work modified the ReNuMa model by revising the source code to allow yearly changes in atmospheric N deposition and incorporation of N-leaching lag effects into N transport processes. The appropriate N-leaching lag time was determined from cross-correlation analysis between annual watershed individual N source inputs and riverine N export. Accuracy of the modified ReNuMa model was demonstrated through analysis of a 31-year water quality record (1980-2010) from the Yongan watershed in eastern China. The revisions considerably improved the accuracy (Nash-Sutcliff coefficient increased by ∼0.2) of the modified ReNuMa model for predicting riverine N loads. The modified model explicitly identified annual and seasonal changes in contributions of various N sources (i.e., point vs. nonpoint source, surface runoff vs. groundwater) to riverine N loads as well as the fate of watershed anthropogenic N inputs. Model results were consistent with previously modeled or observed lag time length as well as changes in riverine chloride and nitrate concentrations during the low-flow regime and available N levels in agricultural soils of this watershed. The modified ReNuMa model is applicable for addressing long-term changes in riverine N sources, providing decision-makers with critical information for guiding watershed N pollution control strategies.

LAG-3 Represents a Marker of CD4+ T Cells with Regulatory Activity in Patients with Bone Fracture.

PubMed

Wang, Jun; Ti, Yunfan; Wang, Yicun; Guo, Guodong; Jiang, Hui; Chang, Menghan; Qian, Hongbo; Zhao, Jianning; Sun, Guojing

2018-04-19

The lymphocyte activation gene 3 (LAG-3) is a CD4 homolog with binding affinity to MHC class II molecules. It is thought that LAG-3 exerts a bimodal function, such that co-ligation of LAG-3 and CD3 could deliver an inhibitory signal in conventional T cells, whereas, on regulatory T cells, LAG-3 expression could promote their inhibitory function. In this study, we investigated the role of LAG-3 expression on CD4 + T cells in patients with long bone fracture. We found that LAG-3 + cells represented approximately 13% of peripheral blood CD4 + T cells on average. Compared to LAG-3 - CD4 + T cells, LAG-3 + CD4 + T cells presented significantly higher Foxp3 and CTLA-4 expression. Directly ex vivo or with TCR stimulation, LAG-3 + CD4 + T cells expressed significantly higher levels of IL-10 and TGF-β than LAG-3 - CD4 + T cells. Interestingly, blocking the LAG-3-MHC class II interaction actually increased the IL-10 expression by LAG-3 + CD4 + T cells. The frequency of LAG-3 + CD4 + T cell was positively correlated with restoration of healthy bone function in long bone fracture patients. These results together suggested that LAG-3 is a marker of CD4 + T cells with regulatory function; at the same time, LAG-3 might have limited the full suppressive potential of Treg cells.

Day-Scale Variability of 3C 279 and Searches for Correlations in Gamma-Ray, X-Ray and Optical Bands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, R. C.; Villata, M.; Balonek, T. J.; Bertsch, D. L.; Bock, H.; Boettcher, M.; Carini, M. T.; Collmar, W.; DeFrancesco, G.; Ferrera, E. C.;

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

2017-10-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF X-RAY TIME LAGS AND QUIESCENT SPECTRA FROM HOMOGENEOUS AND INHOMOGENEOUS BLACK HOLE ACCRETION CORONAE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroon, John J.; Becker, Peter A., E-mail: jkroon@gmu.edu, E-mail: pbecker@gmu.edu

2016-04-20

Many accreting black holes manifest time lags during outbursts, in which the hard Fourier component typically lags behind the soft component. Despite decades of observations of this phenomenon, the underlying physical explanation for the time lags has remained elusive, although there are suggestions that Compton reverberation plays an important role. However, the lack of analytical solutions has hindered the interpretation of the available data. In this paper, we investigate the generation of X-ray time lags in Compton scattering coronae using a new mathematical approach based on analysis of the Fourier-transformed transport equation. By solving this equation, we obtain the Fouriermore » transform of the radiation Green’s function, which allows us to calculate the exact dependence of the time lags on the Fourier frequency, for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous coronal clouds. We use the new formalism to explore a variety of injection scenarios, including both monochromatic and broadband (bremsstrahlung) seed photon injection. We show that our model can successfully reproduce both the observed time lags and the time-averaged (quiescent) X-ray spectra for Cyg X-1 and GX 339-04, using a single set of coronal parameters for each source. The time lags are the result of impulsive bremsstrahlung injection occurring near the outer edge of the corona, while the time-averaged spectra are the result of continual distributed injection of soft photons throughout the cloud.« less

Statistical tests for power-law cross-correlated processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podobnik, Boris; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-12-01

For stationary time series, the cross-covariance and the cross-correlation as functions of time lag n serve to quantify the similarity of two time series. The latter measure is also used to assess whether the cross-correlations are statistically significant. For nonstationary time series, the analogous measures are detrended cross-correlations analysis (DCCA) and the recently proposed detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρDCCA(T,n), where T is the total length of the time series and n the window size. For ρDCCA(T,n), we numerically calculated the Cauchy inequality -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1. Here we derive -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1 for a standard variance-covariance approach and for a detrending approach. For overlapping windows, we find the range of ρDCCA within which the cross-correlations become statistically significant. For overlapping windows we numerically determine—and for nonoverlapping windows we derive—that the standard deviation of ρDCCA(T,n) tends with increasing T to 1/T. Using ρDCCA(T,n) we show that the Chinese financial market's tendency to follow the U.S. market is extremely weak. We also propose an additional statistical test that can be used to quantify the existence of cross-correlations between two power-law correlated time series.

Publication times, impact factors, and advance online publication in ophthalmology journals.

PubMed

Chen, Haoyu; Chen, Chun Hui; Jhanji, Vishal

2013-08-01

Publication speed of peer-reviewed journals may play a major role in early dissemination of knowledge and may raise the citation index. In this study, we evaluated the publication speed of ophthalmology journals. Observational study. Observational study of bibliometric data in published ophthalmology journals. A list of ophthalmic journals featured in the 2010 Journal Citation Report was obtained on September 1, 2011. A total of 12 articles were chosen randomly from each of these journals published between January and December 2010. Median publication time and interquartile range (IQR) were obtained from the full texts of the published articles. Time lag between submission and revision, acceptance, and publication of the manuscripts was calculated. Correlation between publication time lag and journal impact factor as well as advance online publication was analyzed. A total of 51 ophthalmic journals were included. There was no statistically significant difference in the impact factors of journals based on their reporting of submission, revision, or acceptance times of the manuscripts (both P>0.05, Wilcoxon test). The median peer review and publication time of all ophthalmology journals was 133 days (IQR, 100.5-171.5) and 100 days (IQR, 62.9-166.3), respectively. There was no correlation between the journal impact factors and publication time lag (Spearman correlation). Approximately half of the ophthalmology journals (n = 26; 50.98%) published online in advance. Journals with advance online publication had higher impact factors compared with those without this feature (median, 1.692 [IQR, 1.05-2.80] vs. 1.02 [0.39-1.53]; P = 0.015, Mann-Whitney U test). For journals with advance online publication, the median time from acceptance to advance online publication (74.3 days [IQR, 48.3-115 days]) was significantly shorter than the median time between acceptance and print publication (170.75 days [IQR, 101.4-217 days]; P<0.001, Wilcoxon test). Publication time lag in ophthalmology journals was not correlated with journal impact factors. Advance online publication facility was provided by only half of the ophthalmology journals published in 2010. Journals with advance online publication had a higher impact factor compared with those without this feature. The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seed reserve composition in 19 tree species of a tropical deciduous forest in Mexico and its relationship to seed germination and seedling growth

PubMed Central

Soriano, Diana; Orozco-Segovia, Alma; Márquez-Guzmán, Judith; Kitajima, Kaoru; Gamboa-de Buen, Alicia; Huante, Pilar

2011-01-01

Background and Aims The size and composition of seed reserves may reflect the ecological strategy and evolutionary history of a species and also temporal variation in resource availability. The seed mass and composition of seed reserves of 19 co-existing tree species were studied, and we examined how they varied among species in relation to germination and seedling growth rates, as well as between two years with contrasting precipitation (652 and 384 mm). Methods Seeds were collected from a tropical deciduous forest in the northwest of Mexico (Chamela Biological Station). The seed dry mass, with and without the seed coat, and the concentrations of lipids, nitrogen and non-structural carbohydrates for the seed minus seed coat were determined. The anatomical localization of these reserves was examined using histochemical analysis. The germination capacity, rate and lag time were determined. The correlations among these variables, and their relationship to previously reported seedling relative growth rates, were evaluated with and without phylogenetic consideration. Key Results There were interannual differences in seed mass and reserve composition. Seed was significantly heavier after the drier year in five species. Nitrogen concentration was positively correlated with seed coat fraction, and was significantly higher after the drier year in 12 species. The rate and lag time of germination were negatively correlated with each other. These trait correlations were also supported for phylogenetic independent contrasts. Principal component analysis supported these correlations, and indicated a negative association of seedling relative growth rate with seed size, and a positive association of germination rate with nitrogen and lipid concentrations. Conclusions Nitrogen concentration tended to be higher after the drier year and, while interannual variations in seed size and reserve composition were not sufficient to affect interspecific correlations among seed and seedling traits, some of the reserves were related to germination variables and seedling relative growth rate. PMID:21385781

An approach to the determination of aircraft handling qualities using pilot transfer functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, J. J.; Hatch, H. G., Jr.

1978-01-01

It was shown that a correlation exists between pilot-aircraft system closed-loop characteristics, determined by using analytical expressions for pilot response along with the analytical expression for the aircraft response, and pilot ratings obtained in many previous flight and simulation studies. Two different levels of preferred pilot response were used. These levels were: (1) a static gain and a second-order lag function with a lag time constant of 0.2 second; and (2) a static gain, a lead time constant of 1 second, and a 0.2-second lag time constant. If a system response with a pitch-angle time constant of 2.6 seconds and a stable oscillatory mode of motion with a period of 2.5 seconds could be achieved with the first-level pilot model, it was shown that the pilot rating will be satisfactory for that vehicle.

High-throughput Analysis of Ultrasonication-forced Amyloid Fibrillation Reveals the Mechanism Underlying the Large Fluctuation in the Lag Time*

PubMed Central

Umemoto, Ayaka; Yagi, Hisashi; So, Masatomo; Goto, Yuji

2014-01-01

Amyloid fibrils form in supersaturated solutions of precursor proteins by a nucleation and growth mechanism characterized by a lag time. Although the lag time provides a clue to understanding the complexity of nucleation events, its long period and low reproducibility have been obstacles for exact analysis. Ultrasonication is known to effectively break supersaturation and force fibrillation. By constructing a Handai amyloid burst inducer, which combines a water bath-type ultrasonicator and a microplate reader, we examined the ultrasonication-forced fibrillation of several proteins, with a focus on the fluctuation in the lag time. Amyloid fibrillation of hen egg white lysozyme was examined at pH 2.0 in the presence of 1.0–5.0 M guanidine hydrochloride (GdnHCl), in which the dominant species varied from the native to denatured conformations. Although fibrillation occurred at various concentrations of GdnHCl, the lag time varied largely, with a minimum being observed at ∼3.0 m, the concentration at which GdnHCl-dependent denaturation ended. The coefficient of variation of the lag time did not depend significantly on the GdnHCl concentration and was 2-fold larger than that of the ultrasonication-dependent oxidation of iodide, a simple model reaction. These results suggest that the large fluctuation observed in the lag time for amyloid fibrillation originated from a process associated with a common amyloidogenic intermediate, which may have been a relatively compact denatured conformation. We also suggest that the Handai amyloid burst inducer system will be useful for studying the mechanism of crystallization of proteins because proteins form crystals by the same mechanism as amyloid fibrils under supersaturation. PMID:25118286

Unique interrelationships between fiber composition, water-soluble carbohydrates, and in vitro gas production for fall-grown oat forages.

PubMed

Coblentz, W K; Nellis, S E; Hoffman, P C; Hall, M B; Weimer, P J; Esser, N M; Bertram, M G

2013-01-01

Sixty samples of 'ForagePlus' oat were selected from a previous plot study for analysis of in vitro gas production (IVGP) on the basis of 2 factors: (1) high (n=29) or low (n=31) neutral detergent fiber (NDF; 62.7±2.61 and 45.1±3.91%, respectively); and (2) the range of water-soluble carbohydrates (WSC) within the high- and low-NDF groups. For the WSC selection factor, concentrations ranged from 4.7 to 13.4% (mean=7.9±2.06%) and from 3.5 to 19.4% (mean=9.7±4.57%) within high- and low-NDF forages, respectively. Our objectives were to assess the relationships between IVGP and various agronomic or nutritional characteristics for high- and low-NDF fall-oat forages. Cumulative IVGP was fitted to a single-pool nonlinear regression model: Y=MAX × (1 - e ([-)(K)(× (t - lag)])), where Y=cumulative gas produced (mL), MAX=maximum cumulative gas produced with infinite incubation time (mL), K=rate constant, t=incubation time (h), and lag=discrete lag time (h). Generally, cumulative IVGP after 12, 24, 36, or 48h within high-NDF fall-oat forages was negatively correlated with NDF, hemicellulose, lignin, and ash, but positively correlated with WSC, nonfiber carbohydrate (NFC), and total digestible nutrients (TDN). For low-NDF fall-grown oat forages, IVGP was positively correlated with growth stage, canopy height, WSC, NFC, and TDN; negative correlations were observed with ash and crude protein (CP) but not generally with fiber components. These responses were also reflected in multiple regression analysis for high- and low-NDF forages. After 12, 24, or 36h of incubation, cumulative IVGP within high-NDF fall-oat forages was explained by complex regression equations utilizing (lignin:NDF)(2), lignin:NDF, hemicellulose, lignin, and TDN(2) as independent variables (R(2)≥0.43). Within low-NDF fall-grown oat forages, cumulative IVGP at these incubation intervals was explained by positive linear relationships with NFC that also exhibited high coefficients of determination (R(2)≥0.75). Gas production was accelerated at early incubation times within low-NDF forages, specifically in response to large pools of WSC that were most likely to be present as forages approached boot stage by late-fall. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An experimental study of the nonlinear dynamic phenomenon known as wing rock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arena, A. S., Jr.; Nelson, R. C.; Schiff, L. B.

1990-01-01

An experimental investigation into the physical phenomena associated with limit cycle wing rock on slender delta wings has been conducted. The model used was a slender flat plate delta wing with 80-deg leading edge sweep. The investigation concentrated on three main areas: motion characteristics obtained from time history plots, static and dynamic flow visualization of vortex position, and static and dynamic flow visualization of vortex breakdown. The flow visualization studies are correlated with model motion to determine the relationship between vortex position and vortex breakdown with the dynamic rolling moments. Dynamic roll moment coefficient curves reveal rate-dependent hysteresis, which drives the motion. Vortex position correlated with time and model motion show a time lag in the normal position of the upward moving wing vortex. This time lag may be the mechanism responsible for the hysteresis. Vortex breakdown is shown to have a damping effect on the motion.

Difficult temperament and negative parenting in early childhood: a genetically informed cross-lagged analysis

PubMed Central

Micalizzi, Lauren; Wang, Manjie; Saudino, Kimberly J.

2015-01-01

A genetically informed longitudinal cross-lagged model was applied to twin data to explore etiological links between difficult temperament and negative parenting in early childhood. The sample comprised 313 monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs. Difficult temperament and negative parenting were assessed at ages 2 and 3 using parent ratings. Both constructs were interrelated within and across age (rs .34–.47) and showed substantial stability (rs .65–.68). Difficult temperament and negative parenting were influenced by genetic and environmental factors at ages 2 and 3. The genetic and nonshared environmental correlations (rs .21–.76) at both ages suggest overlap at the level of etiology between the phenotypes. Significant bidirectional associations between difficult temperament and negative parenting were found. The cross-lagged association from difficult temperament at age 2 to negative parenting at age 3 and from negative parenting at age 2 and difficult temperament at age 3 were due to genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental factors. Substantial novel genetic and nonshared environmental influences emerged at age 3 and suggest change in the etiology of these constructs over time. PMID:26490166

Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.

PubMed

Chen, Dingjiang; Huang, Hong; Hu, Minpeng; Dahlgren, Randy A

2014-05-20

This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.

Mutagenic analysis of the nucleation propensity of oxidized Alzheimer's beta-amyloid peptide.

PubMed

Christopeit, Tony; Hortschansky, Peter; Schroeckh, Volker; Gührs, Karlheinz; Zandomeneghi, Giorgia; Fändrich, Marcus

2005-08-01

The formation of polypeptide aggregates represents a nucleated polymerization reaction in which an initial nucleation event (lag phase) is followed by the extension of newly formed nuclei into larger aggregates, including fibrils (growth phase). The efficiencies of these reactions relate to the lag time (lag phase) and to the rate of aggregation (growth phase), which can be determined from experimental aggregation curves. Here we present a mutagenic analysis in which we replace valine 18 of the Alzheimer's Abeta (1-40) peptide with 17 different amino acids and determine its effect on the lag time, and therefore, on the propensity of nucleation. Comparison with various physico-chemical properties shows that nucleation is affected in a predictable manner depending on the beta-sheet propensity and hydrophobicity of residue 18. In addition, we observe a direct proportionality between the lag time and the rate of aggregation. These data imply that the two reactions, nucleation and polymerization, are governed by very similar physicochemical principles and that they involve the formation of the same types of noncovalent interactions.

A Time Series Analysis: Weather Factors, Human Migration and Malaria Cases in Endemic Area of Purworejo, Indonesia, 2005–2014

PubMed Central

REJEKI, Dwi Sarwani Sri; NURHAYATI, Nunung; AJI, Budi; MURHANDARWATI, E. Elsa Herdiana; KUSNANTO, Hari

2018-01-01

Background: Climatic and weather factors become important determinants of vector-borne diseases transmission like malaria. This study aimed to prove relationships between weather factors with considering human migration and previous case findings and malaria cases in endemic areas in Purworejo during 2005–2014. Methods: This study employed ecological time series analysis by using monthly data. The independent variables were the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum humidity, minimum humidity, precipitation, human migration, and previous malaria cases, while the dependent variable was positive malaria cases. Three models of count data regression analysis i.e. Poisson model, quasi-Poisson model, and negative binomial model were applied to measure the relationship. The least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) value was also performed to find the best model. Negative binomial regression analysis was considered as the best model. Results: The model showed that humidity (lag 2), precipitation (lag 3), precipitation (lag 12), migration (lag1) and previous malaria cases (lag 12) had a significant relationship with malaria cases. Conclusion: Weather, migration and previous malaria cases factors need to be considered as prominent indicators for the increase of malaria case projection. PMID:29900134

Environmental Variability and Fluctuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) In California: Based on a New Framework Involving Fungal Life Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, S.; Okin, G. S.; Shafir, S. C.

2013-12-01

Coccidioidomycosis (valley fever), caused by inhalation of spores from pathogenic fungus includingCoccidiodes immitis (C. immitis) and Coccidioides posadasii (C. posadasii), is a disease endemic to arid regions in the southwest US, as well as parts of Central and South America. With a projected increase of drought in this region, an improved understanding of environmental factors behind the outbreaks of coccidioidomycosis will enable the prediction of coccidioidomycosis in a changing climate regime. Previous research shows the infections correlate with climate conditions including precipitation, temperature, and dust. However, most studies focus only on the environmental conditions of fungus growth, which is the first stage in the fungal life cycle. In contrast, we extend the analysis to the following two stages in the life cycle, arthrospore formation and dispersal, to form a better model to predict the disease outbreaks. Besides climate conditions, we use relative spectral mixture analysis (RSMA) based on MODIS MOD43 nadir BRDF adjusted reflectance (NBAR) data to derive the relative dynamics of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation and bare soil coverage as better indicators of soil moisture, which is important for arthospore formation and dispersal. After detecting the hotspots of disease outbreaks, we correlate seasonal incidence from 2000 to 2010 with the environmental variables zero to eight seasons before to obtain candidates for stepwise regression. Regression result shows a seasonal difference in the leading explanatory variables. Such difference indicates the different seasonal main influential process from fungal life cycle. C. immitis (fungus responsible for coccidioidomycosis outbreaks in California) growth explains outbreaks in winter and fall better than other two stages in the life cycle, while arthospore formation is more responsible for spring and summer outbreaks. As the driest season, summer has the largest area related with arthospore dispersal. The seasonal difference of main influential process relates to the length of lags between the outbreaks and stages in fungal life cycle. During wet seasons of California including winter and fall, outbreaks are less correlated with the short-lag process such as dispersal of arthospores because of high soil moisture. In contrast, the long-lag process like C.immitis growth is influential on outbreaks in wet seasons. The arthospore formation, especially during the latest dry season (with a lag less than one year), is more responsible for outbreaks in spring and summer, when the influence of C. immitis growth is dampened by time. However, arthospores formed and preserved years ago may introduce uncertainty to the seasonal lag patterns. The long lags also exist in outbreaks related to arthospore formation. By including all three stages of fungal life cycle, we formed a more comprehensive framework in explaining the relationship between environmental conditions and disease outbreaks. Such analysis can be extended to a finer temporal resolution (e.g. per month) to obtain a clearer picture between environmental variability and coccidioidomycosis fluctuation.

HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickinson, Jesse; Hanson, Randall T.; Predmore, Steven K.

2014-01-01

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of deep percolation, lag time and recharge in an irrigated semi-arid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarieh, F.; Ansari, H.; Ziaei, A. N.; Izady, A.; Davari, K.; Brunner, P.

2018-05-01

The time required for deep percolating water to reach the water table can be considerable in areas with a thick vadose zone. Sustainable groundwater management, therefore, has to consider the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. The key parameters that control the lag time have been widely examined in soil physics using small-scale lysimeters and modeling studies. However, only a small number of studies have analyzed how deep-percolation rates affect groundwater recharge dynamics over large spatial scales. This study examined how the parameters influencing lag time affect groundwater recharge in a semi-arid catchment under irrigation (in northeastern Iran) using a numerical modeling approach. Flow simulations were performed by the MODFLOW-NWT code with the Vadose-Zone Flow (UZF) Package. Calibration of the groundwater model was based on data from 48 observation wells. Flow simulations showed that lag times vary from 1 to more than 100 months. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that during drought conditions, the lag time was highly sensitive to the rate of deep percolation. The study illustrated two critical points: (1) the importance of providing estimates of the lag time as a basis for sustainable groundwater management, and (2) lag time not only depends on factors such as soil hydraulic conductivity or vadose zone depth but also depends on the deep-percolation rates and the antecedent soil-moisture condition. Therefore, estimates of the lag time have to be associated with specific percolation rates, in addition to depth to groundwater and soil properties.

Partial dust obscuration in active galactic nuclei as a cause of broad-line profile and lag variability, and apparent accretion disc inhomogeneities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaskell, C. Martin; Harrington, Peter Z.

2018-04-01

The profiles of the broad emission lines of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the time delays in their response to changes in the ionizing continuum ("lags") give information about the structure and kinematics of the inner regions of AGNs. Line profiles are also our main way of estimating the masses of the supermassive black holes (SMBHs). However, the profiles often show ill-understood, asymmetric structure and velocity-dependent lags vary with time. Here we show that partial obscuration of the broad-line region (BLR) by outflowing, compact, dusty clumps produces asymmetries and velocity-dependent lags similar to those observed. Our model explains previously inexplicable changes in the ratios of the hydrogen lines with time and velocity, the lack of correlation of changes in line profiles with variability of the central engine, the velocity dependence of lags, and the change of lags with time. We propose that changes on timescales longer than the light-crossing time do not come from dynamical changes in the BLR, but are a natural result of the effect of outflowing dusty clumps driven by radiation pressure acting on the dust. The motion of these clumps offers an explanation of long-term changes in polarization. The effects of the dust complicate the study of the structure and kinematics of the BLR and the search for sub-parsec SMBH binaries. Partial obscuration of the accretion disc can also provide the local fluctuations in luminosity that can explain sizes deduced from microlensing.

The Measurement of Pressure Through Tubes in Pressure Distribution Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemke, Paul E

1928-01-01

The tests described in this report were made to determine the error caused by using small tubes to connect orifices on the surface of aircraft to central pressure capsules in making pressure distribution tests. Aluminum tubes of 3/16-inch inside diameter were used to determine this error. Lengths from 20 feet to 226 feet and pressures whose maxima varied from 2 inches to 140 inches of water were used. Single-pressure impulses for which the time of rise of pressure from zero to a maximum varied from 0.25 second to 3 seconds were investigated. The results show that the pressure recorded at the capsule on the far end of the tube lags behind the pressure at the orifice end and experiences also a change in magnitude. For the values used in these tests the time lag and pressure change vary principally with the time of rise of pressure from zero to a maximum and the tube length. Curves are constructed showing the time lag and pressure change. Empirical formulas are also given for computing the time lag. Analysis of pressure distribution tests made on airplanes in flight shows that the recorded pressures are slightly higher than the pressures at the orifice and that the time lag is negligible. The apparent increase in pressure is usually within the experimental error, but in the case of the modern pursuit type of airplane the pressure increase may be 5 per cent. For pressure-distribution tests on airships the analysis shows that the time lag and pressure change may be neglected.

Auto Correlation Analysis of Coda Waves from Local Earthquakes for Detecting Temporal Changes in Shallow Subsurface Structures: the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakahara, Hisashi

2015-02-01

For monitoring temporal changes in subsurface structures I propose to use auto correlation functions of coda waves from local earthquakes recorded at surface receivers, which probably contain more body waves than surface waves. Use of coda waves requires earthquakes resulting in decreased time resolution for monitoring. Nonetheless, it may be possible to monitor subsurface structures in sufficient time resolutions in regions with high seismicity. In studying the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake (Mw 9.0), for which velocity changes have been previously reported, I try to validate the method. KiK-net stations in northern Honshu are used in this analysis. For each moderate earthquake normalized auto correlation functions of surface records are stacked with respect to time windows in the S-wave coda. Aligning the stacked, normalized auto correlation functions with time, I search for changes in phases arrival times. The phases at lag times of <1 s are studied because changes at shallow depths are focused. Temporal variations in the arrival times are measured at the stations based on the stretching method. Clear phase delays are found to be associated with the mainshock and to gradually recover with time. The amounts of the phase delays are 10 % on average with the maximum of about 50 % at some stations. The deconvolution analysis using surface and subsurface records at the same stations is conducted for validation. The results show the phase delays from the deconvolution analysis are slightly smaller than those from the auto correlation analysis, which implies that the phases on the auto correlations are caused by larger velocity changes at shallower depths. The auto correlation analysis seems to have an accuracy of about several percent, which is much larger than methods using earthquake doublets and borehole array data. So this analysis might be applicable in detecting larger changes. In spite of these disadvantages, this analysis is still attractive because it can be applied to many records on the surface in regions where no boreholes are available.

The Beaming Structures of Jupiter’s Decametric Common S-bursts Observed from the LWA1, NDA, and URAN2 Radio Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, Masafumi; Lecacheux, Alain; Clarke, Tracy E.; Higgins, Charles A.; Panchenko, Mykhaylo; Dowell, Jayce; Imai, Kazumasa; Brazhenko, Anatolii I.; Frantsuzenko, Anatolii V.; Konovalenko, Alexandr A.

2016-08-01

On 2015 February 21, simultaneous observations of Jupiter's decametric radio emission between 10 and 33 MHz were carried out using three powerful low-frequency radio telescopes: the Long Wavelength Array Station One in the USA, the Nançay Decameter Array in France, and the URAN2 telescope in Ukraine. We measured the lag times of short-bursts (S-bursts) for 105 minutes of data over effective baselines of up to 8460 km by using cross-correlation analysis of the spectrograms from each instrument. Of particular interest is the measurement of the beaming thickness of S-bursts, testing if either flashlight- or beacon-like beaming is emanating from Jupiter. We find that the lag times for all pairs drift slightly as time elapses, in agreement with expectations from the flashlight-like beaming model. This leads to a new constraint of the minimum beaming thickness of 2.″66. Also, we find that most of the analyzed data abound with S-bursts, whose occurrence probability peaks at 17-18 MHz.

A critique of the cross-lagged panel model.

PubMed

Hamaker, Ellen L; Kuiper, Rebecca M; Grasman, Raoul P P P

2015-03-01

The cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) is believed by many to overcome the problems associated with the use of cross-lagged correlations as a way to study causal influences in longitudinal panel data. The current article, however, shows that if stability of constructs is to some extent of a trait-like, time-invariant nature, the autoregressive relationships of the CLPM fail to adequately account for this. As a result, the lagged parameters that are obtained with the CLPM do not represent the actual within-person relationships over time, and this may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the presence, predominance, and sign of causal influences. In this article we present an alternative model that separates the within-person process from stable between-person differences through the inclusion of random intercepts, and we discuss how this model is related to existing structural equation models that include cross-lagged relationships. We derive the analytical relationship between the cross-lagged parameters from the CLPM and the alternative model, and use simulations to demonstrate the spurious results that may arise when using the CLPM to analyze data that include stable, trait-like individual differences. We also present a modeling strategy to avoid this pitfall and illustrate this using an empirical data set. The implications for both existing and future cross-lagged panel research are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Four-Year Cross-Lagged Associations between Physical and Mental Health in the Medical Outcomes Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hays, Ron D.; And Others

1994-01-01

Applied structural equation modeling to evaluation of cross-lagged panel models. Self-reports of physical and mental health at three time points spanning four-year interval were analyzed to illustrate cross-lagged analysis methodology. Data were analyzed from 856 patients with hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, or depression. Cross-lagged…

Statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epitropakis, A.; Papadakis, I. E.

2016-06-01

Context. The study of X-ray time-lag spectra in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is currently an active research area, since it has the potential to illuminate the physics and geometry of the innermost region (I.e. close to the putative super-massive black hole) in these objects. To obtain reliable information from these studies, the statistical properties of time-lags estimated from data must be known as accurately as possible. Aims: We investigated the statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates (I.e. based on the cross-periodogram), using evenly sampled time series with no missing points. Our aim is to provide practical "guidelines" on estimating time-lags that are minimally biased (I.e. whose mean is close to their intrinsic value) and have known errors. Methods: Our investigation is based on both analytical work and extensive numerical simulations. The latter consisted of generating artificial time series with various signal-to-noise ratios and sampling patterns/durations similar to those offered by AGN observations with present and past X-ray satellites. We also considered a range of different model time-lag spectra commonly assumed in X-ray analyses of compact accreting systems. Results: Discrete sampling, binning and finite light curve duration cause the mean of the time-lag estimates to have a smaller magnitude than their intrinsic values. Smoothing (I.e. binning over consecutive frequencies) of the cross-periodogram can add extra bias at low frequencies. The use of light curves with low signal-to-noise ratio reduces the intrinsic coherence, and can introduce a bias to the sample coherence, time-lag estimates, and their predicted error. Conclusions: Our results have direct implications for X-ray time-lag studies in AGN, but can also be applied to similar studies in other research fields. We find that: a) time-lags should be estimated at frequencies lower than ≈ 1/2 the Nyquist frequency to minimise the effects of discrete binning of the observed time series; b) smoothing of the cross-periodogram should be avoided, as this may introduce significant bias to the time-lag estimates, which can be taken into account by assuming a model cross-spectrum (and not just a model time-lag spectrum); c) time-lags should be estimated by dividing observed time series into a number, say m, of shorter data segments and averaging the resulting cross-periodograms; d) if the data segments have a duration ≳ 20 ks, the time-lag bias is ≲15% of its intrinsic value for the model cross-spectra and power-spectra considered in this work. This bias should be estimated in practise (by considering possible intrinsic cross-spectra that may be applicable to the time-lag spectra at hand) to assess the reliability of any time-lag analysis; e) the effects of experimental noise can be minimised by only estimating time-lags in the frequency range where the sample coherence is larger than 1.2/(1 + 0.2m). In this range, the amplitude of noise variations caused by measurement errors is smaller than the amplitude of the signal's intrinsic variations. As long as m ≳ 20, time-lags estimated by averaging over individual data segments have analytical error estimates that are within 95% of the true scatter around their mean, and their distribution is similar, albeit not identical, to a Gaussian.

Using the Cross-Correlation Function to Evaluate the Quality of Eddy-Covariance Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Yongfeng; Shang, Xiaodong; Chen, Guiying; Gao, Zhiqiu; Bi, Xueyan

2015-11-01

A cross-correlation test is proposed for evaluating the quality of 30-min eddy-covariance data. Cross-correlation as a function of time lag is computed for vertical velocity paired with temperature, humidity, and carbon dioxide concentration. High quality data have a dominant peak at zero time lag and approach zero within a time lag of 20 s. Poor quality data have erratic cross-correlation functions, which indicates that the eddy flux may no longer represent the energy and mass exchange between the atmospheric surface layer and the canopy, and such data should be rejected in post-data analyses. Eddy-covariance data over grassland in July 2004 are used to evaluate the proposed test. The results show that 17, 29, and 36 % of the available data should be rejected because of poor quality measurements of sensible heat, latent heat, and CO2 fluxes, respectively. The rejected data mainly occurred on calm nights and day/night transitions when the atmospheric surface layer became stable or neutrally stratified. We found no friction velocity (u_*) threshold below which all data should be rejected, a test that many other studies have implemented for rejecting questionable data. We instead found that some data with low u_* were reliable, whereas other data with higher u_* were not. The poor quality measurements collected under less than ideal conditions were replaced by using the mean diurnal variation gap-filling method. The correction for poor quality data shifted the daily average CO2 flux by +0.34 g C m^{-2} day^{-1}. After applying the quality-control test, the eddy CO2 fluxes did not display a clear dependence on u_*. The results suggest that the cross-correlation test is a potentially valuable step in evaluating the quality of eddy-covariance data.

Investigation into the cross-correlation of salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase responses to psychological stress.

PubMed

Engert, Veronika; Vogel, Susanne; Efanov, Simona I; Duchesne, Annie; Corbo, Vincent; Ali, Nida; Pruessner, Jens C

2011-10-01

Stress is a multidimensional construct. To accurately represent stress physiology, multiple stress measures across multiple stress-related systems should be assessed. However, associations may be masked given that different systems underlie different time courses. Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase (sAA) are reliable biological stress markers of the sympathetic nervous system (SNS) and the hypothalamus pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis, respectively. Studies examining the link between sAA and cortisol levels in response to stress have produced inconsistent results. Here, we investigated whether the covariance of stress-induced sAA and cortisol release is dependent on the distinct temporal dynamics of the two stress markers. A total of 50 male participants were exposed to a psychological laboratory stressor with high frequency (2-min interval) saliva sampling in two independent studies. Synchronized time series of sAA and cortisol measures before, during and after stress induction were obtained. Cross-correlation analysis was applied to test for the association of sAA and cortisol levels at various stages relative to the onset of the stressor. Positive and negative cross-correlations between lagged pairs of sAA and cortisol measures were found in both studies. The strongest correlation was found for sAA preceding cortisol release by 13.5 min (r = .27, p < .001). With a smaller effect size cortisol also significantly preceded sAA by 13.5 min (r = -.16, p < .001). We suggest that sAA and cortisol stress responses are reliably associated at various time lags throughout a stressful situation. As a possible connection site between HPA axis and SNS that may underlie sAA-cortisol associations, we discuss CRF neurons of the hypothalamus involved in sympathetic regulation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding the Impacts of Climate and Hydrologic Extremes on Diarrheal Diseases in Southwestern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, P. A. M.

2015-12-01

Bacterial diarrheal diseases have a high incidence rate during and after flooding episodes. In the Brazilian Amazon, flood extreme events have become more frequent, leading to high incidence rates for infant diarrhea. In this study we aimed to find a statistical association between rainfall, river levels and diarrheal diseases in children under 5, in the river Acre basin, in the State of Acre (Brazil). We also aimed to identify the time-lag and annual season of extreme rainfall and flooding in different cities in the water basin. The results using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite rainfall data show robustness of these estimates against observational stations on-ground. The Pearson coefficient correlation results (highest 0.35) indicate a time-lag, up to 4 days in three of the cities in the water-basin. In addition, a correlation was also tested between monthly accumulated rainfall and the diarrheal incidence during the rainy season (DJF). Correlation results were higher, especially in Acrelândia (0.7) and Brasiléia and Epitaciolândia (0.5). The correlation between water level monthly averages and diarrheal diseases incidence was 0.3 and 0.5 in Brasiléia and Epitaciolândia. The time-lag evidence found in this paper is critical to inform stakeholders, local populations and civil defense authorities about the time available for preventive and adaptation measures between extreme rainfall and flooding events in vulnerable cities. This study was part of a pilot application in the state of Acre of the PULSE-Brazil project (http://www.pulse-brasil.org/tool/), an interface of climate, environmental and health data to support climate adaptation. The next step of this research is to expand the analysis to other climate variables on diarrheal diseases across the whole Brazilian Amazon Basin and estimate the relative risk (RR) of a child getting sick. A statistical model will estimate RR based on the observed values and seasonal forecasts (higher accuracy for the Amazon region) will be used so the government can be prepared for extreme climate events forecasted. It is expected that these results can be helpful during and post extreme events to improve health surveillance preparedness and better allocate available results in adapting vulnerable cities to climate extreme events.

Relative phase asynchrony and long-range correlation of long-term solar magnetic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Linhua

2017-07-01

Statistical signal processing is one of the most important tasks in a large amount of areas of scientific studies, such as astrophysics, geophysics, and space physics. Phase recurrence analysis and long-range persistence are the two dynamical structures of the underlying processes for the given natural phenomenon. Linear and nonlinear time series analysis approaches (cross-correlation analysis, cross-recurrence plot, wavelet coherent transform, and Hurst analysis) are combined to investigate the relative phase interconnection and long-range correlation between solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the time interval from 1932 January to 2017 January. The following prominent results are found: (1) geomagnetic activity lags behind sunspot numbers with a phase shift of 21 months, and they have a high level of asynchronous behavior; (2) their relative phase interconnections are in phase for the periodic scales during 8-16 years, but have a mixing behavior for the periodic belts below 8 years; (3) both sunspot numbers and geomagnetic activity can not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon because their dynamical behaviors display a long-term correlation and a fractal nature. We believe that the presented conclusions could provide further information on understanding the dynamical coupling of solar dynamo process with geomagnetic activity variation, and the crucial role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the long-term climate change.

Protein Z efficiently depletes thrombin generation in disseminated intravascular coagulation with poor prognosis.

PubMed

Lee, Nuri; Kim, Ji-Eun; Gu, Ja-Yoon; Yoo, Hyun Ju; Kim, Inho; Yoon, Sung-Soo; Park, Seonyang; Han, Kyou-Sup; Kim, Hyun Kyung

2016-01-01

Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is characterized by consumption of coagulation factors and anticoagulants. Thrombin generation assay (TGA) gives useful information about global hemostatic status. We developed a new TGA system that anticoagulant addition can deplete thrombin generation in plasma, which may reflect defective anticoagulant system in DIC. TGAs were measured on the calibrated automated thrombogram with and without thrombomodulin or protein Z in 152 patients who were suspected of having DIC, yielding four parameters including lag time, endogenous thrombin potential, peak thrombin and time-to-peak in each experiment. Nonsurvivors showed significantly prolonged lag time and time-to-peak in TGA-protein Z system, which was performed with added protein Z. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, lag time and time-to-peak in TGA system were significant independent prognostic factors. In TGA-protein Z system, lag time and time-to-peak were revealed as independent prognostic factors of DIC. Protein Z addition could potentiate its anticoagulant effect in DIC with poor prognosis, suggesting the presence of defective protein Z system. The prolonged lag time and time-to-peak in both TGA and TGA-protein Z systems are expected to be used as independent prognostic factors of DIC.

[Heatwaves and population die off in the Voronezh city].

PubMed

Mekhant'ev, I I; Pichuzhkina, N M; Masaĭlova, L A

2013-01-01

Climatic factor is most important condition for the formation of public health. Attention to it has increased recently against the background of global and regional climate change. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of air temperature on population die off in the Voronezh city in the period of fire-related emergencies. Assessment of cause-and-effect relationships between the air temperature and daily death cases s was performed with the help of the method of time series. Correlation analysis showed a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and population die off from all causes and from diseases of the circulatory system with a lag of 0, 1, 2, 3 days; respiratory diseases - with a lag of 3 days. With the gain in air temperature by one degree the number of deaths increases by 3%. The results were used in adopt management decisions on minimization risks and potential negative effects on human health.

An improved measurement system for FOG pure lag time with no changing of FOG work status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Yang, J. H.; Zhou, Y. L.; Shu, X. W.

2018-05-01

The minimum pure lag time is an important factor for characterizing the dynamic performance of fiber optical gyroscope. It is defined as the time duration from the reception of velocity-shock signal to the output of corresponding fiber-optic gyroscope data. Many engineering projects have required for this index specifically, so the measurement of the minimum pure lag time is highly demanded. In typically measurement system, the work status of tested FOG has to be changed. In this work, a FOG pure lag time measurement system without changing the work status of the FOG has been demonstrated. During the operation of this test system, the impact structure generated a shock towards the FOG, and the pure lag time was measured through data processing analysis. The design scheme and test principle have been researched and analyzed in detail. And a prototype has been developed and used for experiment successfully. This measurement system can realize a measurement accuracy of better than ±3 μs and a system resolution of 108.6ns.

Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K.

2017-12-01

Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data.

Correlation between the change in the kinetics of the ribosomal RNA rrnB P2 promoter and the transition from lag to exponential phase with Pseudomonas fluorescens.

PubMed

McKellar, Robin C

2008-01-15

Developing accurate mathematical models to describe the pre-exponential lag phase in food-borne pathogens presents a considerable challenge to food microbiologists. While the growth rate is influenced by current environmental conditions, the lag phase is affected in addition by the history of the inoculum. A deeper understanding of physiological changes taking place during the lag phase would improve accuracy of models, and in earlier studies a strain of Pseudomonas fluorescens containing the Tn7-luxCDABE gene cassette regulated by the rRNA promoter rrnB P2 was used to measure the influence of starvation, growth temperature and sub-lethal heating on promoter expression and subsequent growth. The present study expands the models developed earlier to include a model which describes the change from exponential to linear increase in promoter expression with time when the exponential phase of growth commences. A two-phase linear model with Poisson weighting was used to estimate the lag (LPDLin) and the rate (RLin) for this linear increase in bioluminescence. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient (r=0.830) between the LPDLin and the growth lag phase (LPDOD) was extremely significant (P

Temporal relationship between antibiotic use and respiratory virus activities in the Republic of Korea: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Ryu, Sukhyun; Kim, Sojung; Kim, Bryan I; Klein, Eili Y; Yoon, Young Kyung; Chun, Byung Chul

2018-01-01

Inappropriate use of antibiotics increases resistance and reduces their effectiveness. Despite evidence-based guidelines, antibiotics are still commonly used to treat infections likely caused by respiratory viruses. In this study, we examined the temporal relationships between antibiotic usage and respiratory infections in the Republic of Korea. The number of monthly antibiotic prescriptions and the incidence of acute respiratory tract infections between 2010 and 2015 at all primary care clinics were obtained from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. The monthly detection rates of respiratory viruses, including adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, influenza virus, human coronavirus, and human rhinovirus, were collected from Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-correlation analysis was conducted to quantify the temporal relationship between antibiotic use and respiratory virus activities as well as respiratory infections in primary clinics. The monthly use of different classes of antibiotic, including penicillins, other beta-lactam antibacterials, macrolides and quinolones, was significantly correlated with influenza virus activity. These correlations peaked at the 0-month lag with cross-correlation coefficients of 0.45 ( p  < 0.01), 0.46 ( p  < 0.01), 0.40 ( p  < 0.01), and 0.35 (< 0.01), respectively. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between acute bronchitis and antibiotics, including penicillin (0.73, p  < 0.01), macrolides (0.74, p  < 0.01), and quinolones (0.45, p  < 0.01), at the 0-month lag. Our findings suggest that there is a significant temporal relationship between influenza virus activity and antibiotic use in primary clinics. This relationship indicates that interventions aimed at reducing influenza cases in addition to effort to discourage the prescription of antibiotics by physicians may help to decrease unnecessary antibiotic consumption.

Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Chirebvu, Elijah; Chimbari, Moses John; Ngwenya, Barbara Ntombi; Sartorius, Benn

2016-01-01

Good knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, mean minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data was obtained from clinical records and respective institutions for the period July 2005 to June 2010, presented graphically and analysed using the Univariate ANOVA and Pearson cross-correlation coefficient tests. Peak malaria season occurred between October and May with the highest cumulative incidence of clinical malaria cases being recorded in February. Most of the cases were individuals aged >5 years. Associations between the incidence of clinical malaria cases and several factors were strong at lag periods of 1 month; rainfall (r = 0.417), mean minimum temperature (r = 0.537), mean average temperature (r = 0.493); and at lag period of 6 months for flood extent (r = 0.467) and zero month for flood discharge (r = 0.497). The effect of mean maximum temperature was strongest at 2-month lag period (r = 0.328). Although malaria transmission patterns varied from year to year the trends were similar to those observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Age group >5 years experienced the greatest burden of clinical malaria probably due to the effects of the national malaria elimination programme. Rainfall, flood discharge and extent, mean minimum and mean average temperatures showed some correlation with the incidence of clinical malaria cases.

The US Stock Market Leads the Federal Funds Rate and Treasury Bond Yields

PubMed Central

Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier

2011-01-01

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis. PMID:21857954

The US stock market leads the federal funds rate and treasury bond yields.

PubMed

Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier

2011-01-01

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.

A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Wan, Jieqiu

2011-10-01

In this article, we investigate the asymmetries of exceedance correlations and cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures markets. First, employing the test statistic proposed by Hong et al. [Asymmetries in stock returns: statistical tests and economic evaluation, Review of Financial Studies 20 (2007) 1547-1581], we find that the exceedance correlations were overall symmetric. However, the results from rolling windows show that some occasional events could induce the significant asymmetries of the exceedance correlations. Second, employing the test statistic proposed by Podobnik et al. [Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches, European Physics Journal B 71 (2009) 243-250], we find that the cross-correlations were significant even for large lagged orders. Using the detrended cross-correlation analysis proposed by Podobnik and Stanley [Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series, Physics Review Letters 100 (2008) 084102], we find that the cross-correlations were weakly persistent and were stronger between spot and futures contract with larger maturity. Our results from rolling sample test also show the apparent effects of the exogenous events. Additionally, we have some relevant discussions on the obtained evidence.

Predictability in community dynamics.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-03-01

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Erratum: Evidence That a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

2004-01-01

An error was made in entering the data. This changes the results concerning the length of the time lag between the variations in the meridional flow speed and those in the cycle amplitude. The final paragraph on page 667 should read: Finally, we study the relationship between the drift velocities and the amplitudes of the hemisphere/cycles. We compare the drift velocity at the maximum of the cycle to the amplitude of that cycle for that hemisphere. There is a positive (0.5) and significant (95%) correlation between the two. However, an even stronger relationship is found between the drift velocity and the amplitude of the N + 2 cycle. The correlation is stronger (0.7) and more significant (99%), as shown. This relationship is suggestive of a "memory" in the solar cycle, again a property of dynamo models that use meridional circulation. Indeed, the two-cycle lag is precisely the relationship found by Charbonneau & Dikpati. This behavior is, however, more difficult to interpret, and we elaborate on this in the next section. In either case, these correlations only explain part of the variance in cycle amplitude (25% for the current cycle and 50% for the N + 2 cycle). Obviously, other mechanisms, such as variations in the gradient in the rotation rate, also contribute to the cycle amplitude variations. Our investigation of possible connections between drift rates and the amplitudes of the N + 1 and N + 3 cycles gives no significant correlations at these alternative time lags.

Spring photosynthetic onset and net CO2 uptake in Alaska triggered by landscape thawing.

PubMed

Parazoo, Nicholas C; Arneth, Almut; Pugh, Thomas A M; Smith, Ben; Steiner, Nicholas; Luus, Kristina; Commane, Roisin; Benmergui, Josh; Stofferahn, Eric; Liu, Junjie; Rödenbeck, Christian; Kawa, Randy; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Zona, Donatella; Arndt, Kyle; Oechel, Walt; Miller, Charles

2018-04-24

The springtime transition to regional-scale onset of photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon uptake in boreal and tundra ecosystems are linked to the soil freeze-thaw state. We present evidence from diagnostic and inversion models constrained by satellite fluorescence and airborne CO 2 from 2012 to 2014 indicating the timing and magnitude of spring carbon uptake in Alaska correlates with landscape thaw and ecoregion. Landscape thaw in boreal forests typically occurs in late April (DOY 111 ± 7) with a 29 ± 6 day lag until photosynthetic onset. North Slope tundra thaws 3 weeks later (DOY 133 ± 5) but experiences only a 20 ± 5 day lag until photosynthetic onset. These time lag differences reflect efficient cold season adaptation in tundra shrub and the longer dehardening period for boreal evergreens. Despite the short transition from thaw to photosynthetic onset in tundra, synchrony of tundra respiration with snow melt and landscape thaw delays the transition from net carbon loss (at photosynthetic onset) to net uptake by 13 ± 7 days, thus reducing the tundra net carbon uptake period. Two global CO 2 inversions using a CASA-GFED model prior estimate earlier northern high latitude net carbon uptake compared to our regional inversion, which we attribute to (i) early photosynthetic-onset model prior bias, (ii) inverse method (scaling factor + optimization window), and (iii) sparsity of available Alaskan CO 2 observations. Another global inversion with zero prior estimates the same timing for net carbon uptake as the regional model but smaller seasonal amplitude. The analysis of Alaskan eddy covariance observations confirms regional scale findings for tundra, but indicates that photosynthesis and net carbon uptake occur up to 1 month earlier in evergreens than captured by models or CO 2 inversions, with better correlation to above-freezing air temperature than date of primary thaw. Further collection and analysis of boreal evergreen species over multiple years and at additional subarctic flux towers are critically needed. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term fluctuations in intertidal communities in an Irish sea-lough: Limpet-fucoid cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, Colin; Trowbridge, Cynthia D.; Pilling, Graham M.; Stirling, Penny; Morritt, David; Williams, Gray A.

2017-09-01

Long-term cyclical changes in rocky shore community structure were documented over two decades at sheltered shores in Lough Hyne Marine Reserve, County Cork, Ireland. Three peaks of abundance were recorded for the limpet, Patella vulgata (1990-5, 2002-6 and 2010-14) with oscillations that varied in amplitude and frequency among sites. The cover of the fucoid Fucus vesiculosus varied inversely with limpet abundance and showed the strongest negative correlation with a lag time of 0-2 years. The species complex Fucus spiralis/guiryi showed a weaker correlation with a lag time of 1-2 years. Two other fucoid species showed no such negative correlations despite their close proximity to limpets within the lough's compressed tidal range. There was no relationship between overall barnacle cover (dominated by Austrominius modestus) and the limpet-fucoid cycles, suggesting that the shelter provided by A. modestus for algae to escape from limpet grazing pressure may not be necessary for these cycles to occur on wave-sheltered shores.

Lag and anticipating synchronization without time-delay coupling.

PubMed

Corron, Ned J; Blakely, Jonathan N; Pethel, Shawn D

2005-06-01

We describe a new method for achieving approximate lag and anticipating synchronization in unidirectionally coupled chaotic oscillators. The method uses a specific parameter mismatch between the drive and response that is a first-order approximation to true time-delay coupling. As a result, an adjustable lag or anticipation effect can be achieved without the need for a variable delay line, making the method simpler and more economical to implement in many physical systems. We present a stability analysis, demonstrate the method numerically, and report experimental observation of the effect in radio-frequency electronic oscillators. In the circuit experiments, both lag and anticipation are controlled by tuning a single capacitor in the response oscillator.

Dynamic light scattering: A fast and reliable method to analyze bacterial growth during the lag phase.

PubMed

Vargas, Susana; Millán-Chiu, Blanca E; Arvizu-Medrano, Sofía M; Loske, Achim M; Rodríguez, Rogelio

2017-06-01

A comparison between plate counting (PC) and dynamic light scattering (DLS) is reported. PC is the standard technique to determine bacterial population as a function of time; however, this method has drawbacks, such as the cumbersome preparation and handling of samples, as well as the long time required to obtain results. Alternative methods based on optical density are faster, but do not distinguish viable from non-viable cells. These inconveniences are overcome by using DLS. Two different bacteria strains were considered: Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. DLS was performed at two different illuminating conditions: continuous and intermittent. By the increment of particle size as a function of time, it was possible to observe cell division and the formation of aggregates containing very few bacteria. The scattered intensity profiles showed the lag phase and the transition to the exponential phase of growth, providing a quantity proportional to viable bacteria concentration. The results revealed a clear and linear correlation in both lag and exponential phase, between the Log 10 (colony-forming units/mL) from PC and the Log 10 of the scattered intensity I s from DLS. These correlations provide a good support to use DLS as an alternative technique to determine bacterial population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application submission date reflects applicant quality.

PubMed

Fuhrman, George M; Dada, Stephen; Ehleben, Carole

2008-01-01

Applications for general surgery residency are submitted through the Electronic Residency Application Service (ERAS) beginning in early September. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the date of application submission could be used in the screening of an applicant for general surgery residency. The 2007 ERAS data for an independent program that accepts 2 categorical residents per year was evaluated. International medical graduates were excluded because no international applicants were considered for interviews. Applicants for preliminary positions were also excluded. The remaining graduates from medical schools accredited by the Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME) who applied for categorical positions were evaluated based on United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores and on medical school performance, as well as on the quality of their personal statements and letters of recommendation. Medical school performance was determined from dean's letters and transcript information, and each applicant was classified as outstanding, average, or poor. The date of application submission was compared with USMLE scores and medical school performance. The lag time to submit an application was also evaluated and compared with whether a student was offered an interview and the assessment of the quality of that interview. Results were evaluated using analysis of variance and the Pearson correlation test to evaluate for significance. A total of 155 applications from LCME-accredited schools for categorical positions were received. The mean lag time to application for students with an outstanding medical school performance was 15.2 +/- 15.5 days compared with 37.4 +/- 26.2 days for poorly performing students (p < 0.01). A negative correlation between USMLE score and the lag time to application was noted (p < 0.01 USMLE I and USMLE II). Applicants offered an interview demonstrated a lag time to submit their application of 19.2 days +/- 21.7 versus 34.0 days +/- 25.8 for applicants not selected to interview (p < 0.01). The results of our study suggest that the date of application submission can provide important screening information about an applicant for general surgery residency. If nearly all high-quality applications are received in September, programs could begin the interview process in early November, which gives students an opportunity to visit more programs and increase their exposure to a broader variety of training options.

Illusory correlation: a function of availability or representativeness heuristics?

PubMed

MacDonald, M G

2000-08-01

The present study sought to investigate the illusory correlation phenomenon by experimentally manipulating the availability of information through the use of the "lag" effect (Madigan, 1969). Seventy-four university students voluntarily participated in this study. Similar to Starr and Katkin's (1969) methodology, subjects were visually presented with each possible combination of four experimental problem descriptions and four sentence completions that were paired and shown twice at each of four lags (i.e., with 0, 2, 8 and 20 intervening variables). Subjects were required to make judgements concerning the frequency with which sentence completions and problem descriptions co-occurred. In agreement with previous research (Starr & Katkin, 1969), the illusory correlation effect was found for specific descriptions and sentence completions. Results also yielded a significant effect of lag for mean ratings between 0 and 2 lags; however, there was no reliable increase in judged co-occurrence at lags 8 and 20. Evidence failed to support the hypothesis that greater availability, through the experimental manipulation of lag, would result in increased frequency of co-occurrence judgements. Findings indicate that, in the present study, the illusory correlation effect is probably due to a situational bias based on the representativeness heuristic.

BL-Lacs in X-Ray Outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remillard, Ronald A.; Urry, C. Megan; Aharonian, Felix; Pian, Elena; Sambruna, Rita; Coppi, Paolo

2000-01-01

We conducted a multifrequency campaign for the TeV blazar Markarian 421 in 1998 April. The campaign started from a pronounced high-amplitude flare recorded by BeppoSAX and Whipple; the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA) observation started three days later. In the X-ray data, we detected multiple flares, occurring on timescales of about one day. ASCA data clearly reveal spectral variability. The comparison of the data from ASCA, the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer, and the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer indicates that the variability amplitudes in the low-energy synchrotron component are larger at higher photon energies. In TeV and gamma-rays, large intraday variations-which were correlated with the X-ray flux-were observed when results from three Cerenkov telescopes were combined. The rms variability of TeV and gamma-rays was similar to that observed in hard X-rays, above ten keV. The X-ray light curve reveals flares that are almost symmetric for most cases, implying that the dominant timescale is the light crossing time through the emitting region. The structure function analysis based on the continuous X-ray light curve of seven days indicates that the characteristic timescale is approx. 0.5 days. The analysis of ASCA light curves in various energy bands appears to show both soft (positive) and hard (negative) lags. These may not be real, as systematic effects could also produce these lags, which are all much smaller than an orbit. If the lags of both signs are real, these imply that the particle acceleration and X-ray cooling timescales are similar.

Difficult temperament and negative parenting in early childhood: a genetically informed cross-lagged analysis.

PubMed

Micalizzi, Lauren; Wang, Manjie; Saudino, Kimberly J

2017-03-01

A genetically informed longitudinal cross-lagged model was applied to twin data to explore etiological links between difficult temperament and negative parenting in early childhood. The sample comprised 313 monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs. Difficult temperament and negative parenting were assessed at ages 2 and 3 using parent ratings. Both constructs were interrelated within and across age (rs .34-.47) and showed substantial stability (rs .65-.68). Difficult temperament and negative parenting were influenced by genetic and environmental factors at ages 2 and 3. The genetic and nonshared environmental correlations (rs .21-.76) at both ages suggest overlap at the level of etiology between the phenotypes. Significant bidirectional associations between difficult temperament and negative parenting were found. The cross-lagged association from difficult temperament at age 2 to negative parenting at age 3 and from negative parenting at age 2 and difficult temperament at age 3 were due to genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental factors. Substantial novel genetic and nonshared environmental influences emerged at age 3 and suggest change in the etiology of these constructs over time. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A numerical study on the evolution of the wind-driven circulation in the Yellow Sea in winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tak, Y. J.; Cho, Y. K.

2016-02-01

The Yellow Sea is a semi-enclosed marginal sea and its circulation in winter is affected by the winter monsoon. In previous studies, it was found that the circulation of the Yellow Sea in winter consists of downwind and upwind currents. Downwind currents consisting of the Korean Coast Current (KCC) and the Chinese Coast Current (CCC) flow along the boundary of the Yellow Sea, whereas an upwind current consisting of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) flows along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. Although some characteristics of such currents and the driving forces of the circulation have been studied by many scientists, the evolution of these currents has received little attention. So, the wind-driven circulation in the Yellow Sea was simulated to explain the changing pattern of these currents in winter and their evolutions were explored by the time-lagged correlation for winter season. According to the lagged correlation, downwind currents occurred in surface layer without a time lag. These downwind currents were more sensitive in the Chinese coast than that in the Korean coast. There is one day time-lag between the wind and the upwind flow developing in the Yellow Sea trough. The YSWC was shifted to the west of the trough after two days and then the KCC strengthened at the same time. It implied the westward shift of the YSWC and the clockwise circulation is developed, two days after the wind blows. The clockwise circulation was one of the reasons that the KCC was stronger than the CCC although the CCC was more sensitive to the wind than the KCC. The clockwise circulation also made the YSWC stronger in the inner YS than it at the entrance of the YS.

Relations between productivity, climate, and normalized difference vegetation index in the central Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jue

Understanding the influences of climate on productivity remains a major challenge in landscape ecology. Satellite remote sensing of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) provides a useful tool to study landscape patterns, based on generalization of local measurements, and to examine relations between climate and variation in productivity. This dissertation examines temporal and spatial relations between NDVI, productivity, and climatic factors over the course of nine years in the central Great Plains. Two general findings emerge: (1) integrated NDVI is a reliable measure of production, as validated with ground-based productivity measurements; and (2) precipitation is the primary factor that determines spatial and temporal patterns of NDVI. NDVI, integrated over appropriate time intervals, is strongly correlated with ground productivity measurements in forests, grasslands, and croplands. Most tree productivity measurements (tree ring size, tree diameter growth, and seed production) are strongly correlated with NDVI integrated for a period during the early growing season; foliage production is most strongly correlated with NDVI integrated over the entire growing season; and tree height growth corresponds with NDVI integrate during the previous growing season. Similarly, productivity measurements for herbaceous plants (grassland biomass and crop yield) are strongly correlated with NDVI. Within the growing season, the temporal pattern of grassland biomass production covaries with NDVI, with a four-week lag time. Across years, grassland biomass production covaries with NDVI integrated from part to all of the current growing season. Corn and wheat yield are most strongly related to NDVI integrated from late June to early August and from late April to mid-May, respectively. Precipitation strongly influences both temporal and spatial patterns of NDVI, while temperature influences NDVI only during the early and late growing season. In terms of temporal patterns, NDVI integrated over the growing season is strongly correlated with precipitation received during the current growing season plus the seven preceding months (fifteen month period); NDVI within the growing season responds to changes in precipitation with a four to eight week lag time; and major precipitation events lead to changes in NDVI with a two to four week lag time. Temperature has a positive correlation with NDVI during the early and late growing season, and a weak negative correlation during the middle of the growing season. In terms of spatial patterns, average precipitation is a strong predictor of the major east-west gradient of NDVI. Deviation from average precipitation explains most of the year-to-year variation in spatial patterns. NDVI and precipitation deviations from average covary (both positive or both negative) for 60--95% of the total land area in Kansas. Minimum and average temperatures are positively correlated with NDVI, but temperature deviation from average is generally not correlated with NDVI deviation from average. The strong relationships between NDVI and productivity, and between precipitation and NDVI, along with detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns for our study region, provides the basis for prediction of productivity at landscape scales under different climate regimes.

[Time lag effect between poplar' s sap flow velocity and microclimate factors in agroforestry system in West Liaoning Province].

PubMed

Di, Sun; Guan, De-xin; Yuan, Feng-hui; Wang, An-zhi; Wu, Jia-bing

2010-11-01

By using Granier's thermal dissipation probe, the sap flow velocity of the poplars in agroforestry system in west Liaoning was continuously measured, and the microclimate factors were measured synchronously. Dislocation contrast method was applied to analyze the sap flow velocity and corresponding air temperature, air humidity, net radiation, and vapor pressure deficit to discuss the time lag effect between poplar' s sap flow velocity and microclimate factors on sunny days. It was found that the poplar's sap flow velocity advanced of air temperature, air humidity, and vapor pressure deficit, and lagged behind net radiation. The sap flow velocity in June, July, August, and September was advanced of 70, 30, 50, and 90 min to air temperature, of 80, 30, 40, and 90 min to air humidity, and of 90, 50, 70, and 120 min to vapor pressure deficit, but lagged behind 10, 10, 40, and 40 min to net radiation, respectively. The time lag time of net radiation was shorter than that of air temperature, air humidity, and vapor pressure. The regression analysis showed that in the cases the time lag effect was contained and not, the determination coefficients between comprehensive microclimate factor and poplar's sap flow velocity were 0.903 and 0.855, respectively, indicating that when the time lag effect was contained, the determination coefficient was ascended by 2.04%, and thus, the simulation accuracy of poplar's sap flow velocity was improved.

A Voice Onset Time Analysis of Apical Stop Production in 3-Year-Olds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilbert, John H. V.

1977-01-01

This paper reports data for voice onset time (VOT) for /d/ and /t/, from six children at average age 3;0. Values for /d/ clearly achieve the short voicing lag category of adults, reported previously. Values for /t/, however, are much more varied, although falling within the category long voicing lag. (CHK)

Lagged correlation networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curme, Chester

Technological advances have provided scientists with large high-dimensional datasets that describe the behaviors of complex systems: from the statistics of energy levels in complex quantum systems, to the time-dependent transcription of genes, to price fluctuations among assets in a financial market. In this environment, where it may be difficult to infer the joint distribution of the data, network science has flourished as a way to gain insight into the structure and organization of such systems by focusing on pairwise interactions. This work focuses on a particular setting, in which a system is described by multivariate time series data. We consider time-lagged correlations among elements in this system, in such a way that the measured interactions among elements are asymmetric. Finally, we allow these interactions to be characteristically weak, so that statistical uncertainties may be important to consider when inferring the structure of the system. We introduce a methodology for constructing statistically validated networks to describe such a system, extend the methodology to accommodate interactions with a periodic component, and show how consideration of bipartite community structures in these networks can aid in the construction of robust statistical models. An example of such a system is a financial market, in which high frequency returns data may be used to describe contagion, or the spreading of shocks in price among assets. These data provide the experimental testing ground for our methodology. We study NYSE data from both the present day and one decade ago, examine the time scales over which the validated lagged correlation networks exist, and relate differences in the topological properties of the networks to an increasing economic efficiency. We uncover daily periodicities in the validated interactions, and relate our findings to explanations of the Epps Effect, an empirical phenomenon of financial time series. We also study bipartite community structures in networks composed of market returns and news sentiment signals for 40 countries. We compare the degrees to which markets anticipate news, and news anticipate markets, and use the community structures to construct a recommender system for inputs to prediction models. Finally, we complement this work with novel investigations of the exogenous news items that may drive the financial system using topic models. This includes an analysis of how investors and the general public may interact with these news items using Internet search data, and how the diversity of stories in the news both responds to and influences market movements.

Do subjective symptoms predict our perception of jet-lag?

PubMed

Waterhouse, J; Edwards, B; Nevill, A; Atkinson, G; Reilly, T; Davies, P; Godfrey, R

2000-10-01

A total of 39 subjects were studied after a flight from the UK to either Sydney or Brisbane (10 time-zones to the east). Subjects varied widely in their age, their athletic ability, whether or not they were taking melatonin, and in their objectives when in Australia. For the first 6 days after arrival, subjects scored their jet-lag five times per day and other subjective variables up to five times per day, using visual analogue scales. For jet-lag, the scale was labelled 0 = no jet-lag to 10 = very bad jet-lag; the extremes of the other scales were labelled - 5 and + 5, indicating marked changes compared with normal, and the centrepoint was labelled 0 indicating 'normal'. Mean daily values for jet-lag and fatigue were initially high (+ 3.65 +/- 0.35 and + 1.55 +/- 0.22 on day 1, respectively) and fell progressively on subsequent days, but were still raised significantly (p < 0.05) on day 5 (fatigue) or day 6 (jet-lag). In addition, times of waking were earlier on all days. By contrast, falls in concentration and motivation, and rises in irritability and nocturnal wakings, had recovered by day 4 or earlier, and bowel activity was less frequent, with harder stools, on days 1 and 2 only. Also, on day 1, there was a decrease in the ease of getting to sleep (- 1.33 +/- 0.55), but this changed to an increase from day 2 onwards (for example, + 0.75 +/- 0.25 on day 6). Stepwise regression analysis was used to investigate predictors of jet-lag. The severity of jet-lag at all the times that were measured was strongly predicted by fatigue ratings made at the same time. Its severity at 08:00 h was predicted by an earlier time of waking, by feeling less alert 30 min after waking and, marginally, by the number of waking episodes. Jet-lag at 12:00 and 16:00 h was strongly predicted by a fall of concentration at these times; jet-lag at mealtimes (12:00, 16:00 and 20:00 h) was predicted by the amount of feeling bloated. Such results complicate an exact interpretation that can be placed on an assessment of a global term such as jet-lag, particularly if the assessment is made only once per day.

Time evolution of surface chlorophyll patterns from cross-spectrum analysis of satellite color images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denman, Kenneth L.; Abbott, Mark R.

1988-01-01

The rate of decorrelation of surface chlorophyll patterns as a function of the time separation between pairs of images was determined from two sequences of CZCS images of the Pacific Ocean area adjacent to Vancouver Island, Canada; cloud-free subareas were selected that were common to several images separated in time by 1-17 days. Image pairs were subjected to two-dimensional autospectrum and cross-spectrum analysis in an array processor, and squared coherence estimates found for several wave bands were plotted against time separation, in analogy with a time-lagged cross correlation function. It was found that, for wavelengths of 50-150 km, significant coherence was lost after 7-10 days, while for wavelengths of 25-50 km, significant coherence was lost after only 5-7 days. In both cases, offshore regions maintained coherence longer than coastal regions.

Effect of endotoxin on ventilation and breath variability: role of cyclooxygenase pathway.

PubMed

Preas, H L; Jubran, A; Vandivier, R W; Reda, D; Godin, P J; Banks, S M; Tobin, M J; Suffredini, A F

2001-08-15

To evaluate the effects of endotoxemia on respiratory controller function, 12 subjects were randomized to receive endotoxin or saline; six also received ibuprofen, a cyclooxygenase inhibitor, and six received placebo. Administration of endotoxin produced fever, increased respiratory frequency, decreased inspiratory time, and widened alveolar-arterial oxygen tension gradient (all p < or = 0.001); these responses were blocked by ibuprofen. Independent of ibuprofen, endotoxin produced dyspnea, and it increased fractional inspiratory time, minute ventilation, and mean inspiratory flow (all p < or = 0.025). Endotoxin altered the autocorrelative behavior of respiratory frequency by increasing its autocorrelation coefficient at a lag of one breath, the number of breath lags with significant serial correlations, and its correlated fraction (all p < 0.05); these responses were blocked by ibuprofen. Changes in correlated behavior of respiratory frequency were related to changes in arterial carbon dioxide tension (r = 0.86; p < 0.03). Endotoxin decreased the oscillatory fraction of inspiratory time in both the placebo (p < 0.05) and ibuprofen groups (p = 0.06). In conclusion, endotoxin produced increases in respiratory motor output and dyspnea independent of fever and symptoms, and it curtailed the freedom to vary respiratory timing-a response that appears to be mediated by the cyclooxygenase pathway.

Optical/UV-to-X-Ray Echoes from the Tidal Disruption Flare ASASSN-14li

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasham, Dheeraj R.; Sadowski, Aleksander; Cenko, S. Bradley

We carried out the first multi-wavelength (optical/UV and X-ray) photometric reverberation mapping of a tidal disruption flare (TDF) ASASSN-14li. We find that its X-ray variations are correlated with and lag the optical/UV fluctuations by 32 ± 4 days. Based on the direction and the magnitude of the X-ray time lag, we rule out X-ray reprocessing and direct emission from a standard circular thin disk as the dominant source of its optical/UV emission. The lag magnitude also rules out an AGN disk-driven instability as the origin of ASASSN-14li and thus strongly supports the tidal disruption picture for this event and similarmore » objects. We suggest that the majority of the optical/UV emission likely originates from debris stream self-interactions. Perturbations at the self-interaction sites produce optical/UV variability and travel down to the black hole where they modulate the X-rays. The time lag between the optical/UV and the X-rays variations thus correspond to the time taken by these fluctuations to travel from the self-interaction site to close to the black hole. We further discuss these time lags within the context of the three variants of the self-interaction model. High-cadence monitoring observations of future TDFs will be sensitive enough to detect these echoes and would allow us to establish the origin of optical/UV emission in TDFs in general.« less

Daily variation in ingress of fall-spawned larval fishes into Delaware Bay in relation to alongshore and along-estuary wind components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schieler, Brittany M.; Hale, Edward A.; Targett, Timothy E.

2014-12-01

Identifying factors that affect ingress of larval fishes from offshore spawning areas into estuarine nurseries is important to improve understanding of variability in recruitment of many coastal marine species. This study investigated the ingress of larval Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus), Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), and summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) at Roosevelt Inlet, near the mouth of Delaware Bay, USA in relation to short-term wind events. Nightly abundances, from November 15 to December 15, 2010, were analyzed with alongshore and along-estuary wind components (direction and speed) using cross-correlation analysis to determine if winds affect larval ingress. Ingress of Atlantic croaker and summer flounder correlated with along-estuary winds, whereas Atlantic menhaden showed no significant correlations with either alongshore or along-estuary winds. Although along-estuary winds during this period were predominantly down-estuary, Atlantic croaker ingress was correlated with positive along-estuary winds (blowing up-estuary), with a three-day lag; and a particularly large ingress peak occurred following the largest up-estuary wind peak. Ingress of summer flounder was correlated with negative along-estuary winds (blowing down-estuary), with a two-day lag. These results suggest that species-specific vertical position in the water column influenced ingress into Delaware Bay. The lag results also suggest that ingressing Atlantic croaker and summer flounder may have a pooling stage outside the mouth of Delaware Bay.

Detection of significant cm to sub-mm band radio and  γ-ray correlated variability in Fermi bright blazars

DOE PAGES

Fuhrmann, L.; Larsson, S.; Chiang, J.; ...

2014-05-12

The exact location of the γ-ray emitting region in blazars is still controversial. In order to attack this problem we present first results of a cross-correlation analysis between radio (11 cm to 0.8 mm wavelength, F-GAMMA programme) and γ-ray (0.1–300 GeV) ~3.5 yr light curves of 54 Fermi-bright blazars. We perform a source stacking analysis and estimate significances and chance correlations using mixed source correlations. These results reveal: (i) the first highly significant multiband radio and γ-ray correlations (radio lagging γ rays) when averaging over the whole sample, (ii) average time delays (source frame: 76 ± 23 to 7 ±more » 9 d), systematically decreasing from cm to mm/sub-mm bands with a frequency dependence τr, γ(ν) ∝ ν -1, in good agreement with jet opacity dominated by synchrotron self-absorption, (iii) a bulk γ-ray production region typically located within/upstream of the 3 mm core region (τ3mm, γ = 12 ± 8 d), (iv) mean distances between the region of γ-ray peak emission and the radio ‘τ = 1 photosphere’ decreasing from 9.8 ± 3.0 pc (11 cm) to 0.9 ± 1.1 pc (2 mm) and 1.4 ± 0.8 pc (0.8 mm), (v) 3 mm/γ-ray correlations in nine individual sources at a significance level where one is expected by chance (probability: 4 × 10 -6), (vi) opacity and ‘time lag core shift’ estimates for quasar 3C 454.3 providing a lower limit for the distance of the bulk γ-ray production region from the supermassive black hole (SMBH) of ~0.8–1.6 pc, i.e. at the outer edge of the broad-line region (BLR) or beyond. A 3 mm τ = 1 surface at ~2–3 pc from the jet base (i.e. well outside the ‘canonical BLR’) finally suggests that BLR material extends to several parsec distances from the SMBH.« less

Generalized viscothermoelasticity theory of dual-phase-lagging model for damping analysis in circular micro-plate resonators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grover, D.; Seth, R. K.

2018-05-01

Analysis and numerical results are presented for the thermoelastic dissipation of a homogeneous isotropic, thermally conducting, Kelvin-Voigt type circular micro-plate based on Kirchhoff's Love plate theory utilizing generalized viscothermoelasticity theory of dual-phase-lagging model. The analytical expressions for thermoelastic damping of vibration and frequency shift are obtained for generalized dual-phase-lagging model and coupled viscothermoelastic plates. The scaled thermoelastic damping has been illustrated in case of circular plate and axisymmetric circular plate for fixed aspect ratio for clamped and simply supported boundary conditions. It is observed that the damping of vibrations significantly depend on time delay and mechanical relaxation times in addition to thermo-mechanical coupling in circular plate under resonance conditions and plate dimensions.

The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

2014-12-01

Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO indices. For instance, the mean correlation of AMO with precipitation/discharge for a zero-year lag was 0.16/0.09 and increased to 0.26/0.23 for a 1-year lag. Our study provides an insight on the lagged hydrologic response of reference catchments and developed basins to variations in oceanic indices.

[Periodic fluctuation features of air temperature, precipitation, and aboveground net primary production of alpine meadow ecosystem on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau].

PubMed

Zhang, Fa-wei; Li, Hong-qin; Li, Ying-nian; Li, Yi-kang; Lin, Li

2009-03-01

With Mexican Hat function as mother function, a wavelet analysis was conducted on the periodic fluctuation features of air temperature, precipitation, and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in the Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences from 1980 to 2007. The results showed that there was a main period of 13 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature, precipitation, and ANPP. A secondary period of 2 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature and ANPP had lesser influence, whereas that of 4 years for the annual fluctuation of precipitation had greater effect. Lagged correlation analysis indicated that the annual fluctuation of ANNP was mainly controlled by the air temperature in a 20 years scale and had a weak 5-9 years lag effect, but there was a less correlation between ANPP and precipitation.

Time lag between deformation and seismicity along monogenetic volcanic unrest periods: The case of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamolda, Héctor; Felpeto, Alicia; Bethencourt, Abelardo

2017-07-01

Between 2011 and 2014 there were at least seven episodes of magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island, but only the first one led to a submarine eruption in 2011-2012. In order to study the relationship between GPS deformation and seismicity during these episodes, we compare the temporal evolution of the deformation with the cumulative seismic energy released. In some of the episodes both deformation and seismicity evolve in a very similar way, but in others a time lag appears between them, in which the deformation precedes the seismicity. Furthermore, a linear correlation between decimal logarithm of intruded magma volume and decimal logarithm of total seismic energy released along the different episodes has been observed. Therefore, if a future magmatic intrusion in El Hierro Island follows this behavior with a proper time lag, we could have an a priori estimate on the order of magnitude the seismic energy released would reach.

Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, H.; Förstner, J.; Vogel, B.; Hanisch, T.; Mühr, B.; Schättler, U.; Schad, T.

2014-08-01

An extended version of the German operational weather forecast model was used to simulate the ash dispersion during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull. As an operational forecast was launched every 6 hours, a time-lagged ensemble was obtained. Sensitivity runs show the ability of the model to simulate thin ash layers when an increased vertical resolution is used. Calibration of the model results with measured data allows for a quantitative forecast of the ash concentration. After this calibration an independent comparison of the simulated number concentration of 3 μm particles and observations at Hohenpeißenberg gives a correlation coefficient of 0.79. However, this agreement could only be reached after additional modifications of the emissions. Based on the time lagged ensemble the conditional probability of violation of a certain threshold is calculated. Improving the ensemble technique used in our study such probabilities could become valuable information for the forecasters advising the organizations responsible for the closing of the airspace.

Extended causal modeling to assess Partial Directed Coherence in multiple time series with significant instantaneous interactions.

PubMed

Faes, Luca; Nollo, Giandomenico

2010-11-01

The Partial Directed Coherence (PDC) and its generalized formulation (gPDC) are popular tools for investigating, in the frequency domain, the concept of Granger causality among multivariate (MV) time series. PDC and gPDC are formalized in terms of the coefficients of an MV autoregressive (MVAR) model which describes only the lagged effects among the time series and forsakes instantaneous effects. However, instantaneous effects are known to affect linear parametric modeling, and are likely to occur in experimental time series. In this study, we investigate the impact on the assessment of frequency domain causality of excluding instantaneous effects from the model underlying PDC evaluation. Moreover, we propose the utilization of an extended MVAR model including both instantaneous and lagged effects. This model is used to assess PDC either in accordance with the definition of Granger causality when considering only lagged effects (iPDC), or with an extended form of causality, when we consider both instantaneous and lagged effects (ePDC). The approach is first evaluated on three theoretical examples of MVAR processes, which show that the presence of instantaneous correlations may produce misleading profiles of PDC and gPDC, while ePDC and iPDC derived from the extended model provide here a correct interpretation of extended and lagged causality. It is then applied to representative examples of cardiorespiratory and EEG MV time series. They suggest that ePDC and iPDC are better interpretable than PDC and gPDC in terms of the known cardiovascular and neural physiologies.

Landscape genetics in a changing world: disentangling historical and contemporary influences and inferring change.

PubMed

Epps, Clinton W; Keyghobadi, Nusha

2015-12-01

Landscape genetics seeks to determine the effect of landscape features on gene flow and genetic structure. Often, such analyses are intended to inform conservation and management. However, depending on the many factors that influence the time to reach equilibrium, genetic structure may more strongly represent past rather than contemporary landscapes. This well-known lag between current demographic processes and population genetic structure often makes it challenging to interpret how contemporary landscapes and anthropogenic activity shape gene flow. Here, we review the theoretical framework for factors that influence time lags, summarize approaches to address this temporal disconnect in landscape genetic studies, and evaluate ways to make inferences about landscape change and its effects on species using genetic data alone or in combination with other data. Those approaches include comparing correlation of genetic structure with historical versus contemporary landscapes, using molecular markers with different rates of evolution, contrasting metrics of genetic structure and gene flow that reflect population genetic processes operating at different temporal scales, comparing historical and contemporary samples, combining genetic data with contemporary estimates of species distribution or movement, and controlling for phylogeographic history. We recommend using simulated data sets to explore time lags in genetic structure, and argue that time lags should be explicitly considered both when designing and interpreting landscape genetic studies. We conclude that the time lag problem can be exploited to strengthen inferences about recent landscape changes and to establish conservation baselines, particularly when genetic data are combined with other data. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exploring lag times between monthly atmospheric deposition and stream chemistry in Appalachian Forest using cross-correlation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although long-term reductions in surface water nitrogen and sulfate concentrations have been widely observed in response to reductions in atmospheric deposition, documenting and inter-relating transient variations in deposition and stream time series has proven problematical due to low signal-to-noi...

Auto correlation analysis of coda waves from local earthquakes for detecting temporal changes in shallow subsurface structures - The 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakahara, H.

2013-12-01

For monitoring temporal changes in subsurface structures, I propose to use auto correlation functions of coda waves from local earthquakes recorded at surface receivers, which probably contain more body waves than surface waves. Because the use of coda waves requires earthquakes, time resolution for monitoring decreases. But at regions with high seismicity, it may be possible to monitor subsurface structures in sufficient time resolutions. Studying the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Mw 9.0), Japan, earthquake for which velocity changes have been already reported by previous studies, I try to validate the method. KiK-net stations in northern Honshu are used in the analysis. For each moderate earthquake, normalized auto correlation functions of surface records are stacked with respect to time windows in S-wave coda. Aligning the stacked normalized auto correlation functions with time, I search for changes in arrival times of phases. The phases at lag times of less than 1s are studied because changes at shallow depths are focused. Based on the stretching method, temporal variations in the arrival times are measured at the stations. Clear phase delays are found to be associated with the mainshock and to gradually recover with time. Amounts of the phase delays are in the order of 10% on average with the maximum of about 50% at some stations. For validation, the deconvolution analysis using surface and subsurface records at the same stations are conducted. The results show that the phase delays from the deconvolution analysis are slightly smaller than those from the auto correlation analysis, which implies that the phases on the auto correlations are caused by larger velocity changes at shallower depths. The auto correlation analysis seems to have an accuracy of about several percents, which is much larger than methods using earthquake doublets and borehole array data. So this analysis might be applicable to detect larger changes. In spite of these disadvantages, this analysis is still attractive because it can be applied to many records on the surface in regions where no boreholes are available. Acknowledgements: Seismograms recorded by KiK-net managed by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) were used in this study. This study was partially supported by JST J-RAPID program and JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 24540449 and 23540449.

Marine mammal distribution in the open ocean: a comparison of ocean color data products and levant time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohern, J.

2016-02-01

Marine mammals are generally located in areas of enhanced surface primary productivity, though they may forage much deeper within the water column and higher on the food chain. Numerous studies over the past several decades have utilized ocean color data from remote sensing instruments (CZCS, MODIS, and others) to asses both the quantity and time scales over which surface primary productivity relates to marine mammal distribution. In areas of sustained upwelling, primary productivity may essentially grow in the secondary levels of productivity (the zooplankton and nektonic species on which marine mammals forage). However, in many open ocean habitats a simple trophic cascade does not explain relatively short time lags between enhanced surface productivity and marine mammal presence. Other dynamic features that entrain prey or attract marine mammals may be responsible for the correlations between marine mammals and ocean color. In order to investigate these features, two MODIS (moderate imaging spectroradiometer) data products, the concentration as well as the standard deviation of surface chlorophyll were used in conjunction with marine mammal sightings collected within Ecuadorian waters. Time lags between enhanced surface chlorophyll and marine mammal presence were on the order of 2-4 weeks, however correlations were much stronger when the standard deviation of spatially binned images was used, rather than the chlorophyll concentrations. Time lags also varied between Balaenopterid and Odontocete cetaceans. Overall, the standard deviation of surface chlorophyll proved a useful tool for assessing potential relationships between marine mammal sightings and surface chlorophyll.

A new method to detect transitory signatures and local time/space variability structures in the climate system: the scale-dependent correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodó, Xavier; Rodríguez-Arias, Miquel-Àngel

2006-10-01

The study of transitory signals and local variability structures in both/either time and space and their role as sources of climatic memory, is an important but often neglected topic in climate research despite its obvious importance and extensive coverage in the literature. Transitory signals arise either from non-linearities, in the climate system, transitory atmosphere-ocean couplings, and other processes in the climate system evolving after a critical threshold is crossed. These temporary interactions that, though intense, may not last long, can be responsible for a large amount of unexplained variability but are normally considered of limited relevance and often, discarded. With most of the current techniques at hand these typology of signatures are difficult to isolate because the low signal-to-noise ratio in midlatitudes, the limited recurrence of the transitory signals during a customary interval of data considered. Also, there is often a serious problem arising from the smoothing of local or transitory processes if statistical techniques are applied, that consider all the length of data available, rather than taking into account the size of the specific variability structure under investigation. Scale-dependent correlation (SDC) analysis is a new statistical method capable of highlighting the presence of transitory processes, these former being understood as temporary significant lag-dependent autocovariance in a single series, or covariance structures between two series. This approach, therefore, complements other approaches such as those resulting from the families of wavelet analysis, singular-spectrum analysis and recurrence plots. A main feature of SDC is its high-performance for short time series, its ability to characterize phase-relationships and thresholds in the bivariate domain. Ultimately, SDC helps tracking short-lagged relationships among processes that locally or temporarily couple and uncouple. The use of SDC is illustrated in the present paper by means of some synthetic time-series examples of increasing complexity, and it is compared with wavelet analysis in order to provide a well-known reference of its capabilities. A comparison between SDC and companion techniques is also addressed and results are exemplified for the specific case of some relevant El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections.

Quantifying Temporal Autocorrelations for the Expression of Geobacter species mRNA Gene Transcripts at Variable Ammonium Levels during in situ U(VI) Bioremediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouser, P. J.

2010-12-01

In order to develop decision-making tools for the prediction and optimization of subsurface bioremediation strategies, we must be able to link the molecular-scale activity of microorganisms involved in remediation processes with biogeochemical processes observed at the field-scale. This requires the ability to quantify changes in the in situ metabolic condition of dominant microbes and associate these changes to fluctuations in nutrient levels throughout the bioremediation process. It also necessitates a need to understand the spatiotemporal variability of the molecular-scale information to develop meaningful parameters and constraint ranges in complex bio-physio-chemical models. The expression of three Geobacter species genes (ammonium transporter (amtB), nitrogen fixation (nifD), and a housekeeping gene (recA)) were tracked at two monitoring locations that differed significantly in ammonium (NH4+) concentrations during a field-scale experiment where acetate was injected into the subsurface to simulate Geobacteraceae in a uranium-contaminated aquifer. Analysis of amtB and nifD mRNA transcript levels indicated that NH4+ was the primary form of fixed nitrogen during bioremediation. Overall expression levels of amtB were on average 8-fold higher at NH4+ concentrations of 300 μM or more than at lower NH4+ levels (average 60 μM). The degree of temporal correlation in Geobacter species mRNA expression levels was calculated at both locations using autocorrelation methods that describe the relationship between sample semi-variance and time lag. At the monitoring location with lower NH4+, a temporal correlation lag of 8 days was observed for both amtB and nifD transcript patterns. At the location where higher NH4+ levels were observed, no discernable temporal correlation lag above the sampling frequency (approximately every 2 days) was observed for amtB or nifD transcript fluctuations. Autocorrelation trends in recA expression levels at both locations indicated that while a temporal correlation in the general metabolic activity of Geobacter species may exist, considerable variability in transcript levels masked these correlations at the sampled scale. These findings suggest that when Geobacter species are dependent upon a particular nutrient such as NH4+, the time length for which their activity level relating to this nutrient condition can be predicted is significantly enhanced.

Atmospheric pollutants and hospital admissions due to pneumonia in children

PubMed Central

Negrisoli, Juliana; Nascimento, Luiz Fernando C.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the relationship between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalizations due to pneumonia in children of Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Time series ecological study, from 2007 to 2008. Daily data were obtained from the State Environmental Agency for Pollution Control for particulate matter, nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, besides air temperature and relative humidity. The data concerning pneumonia admissions were collected in the public health system of Sorocaba. Correlations between the variables of interest using Pearson cofficient were calculated. Models with lags from zero to five days after exposure to pollutants were performed to analyze the association between the exposure to environmental pollutants and hospital admissions. The analysis used the generalized linear model of Poisson regression, being significant p<0.05. RESULTS: There were 1,825 admissions for pneumonia, with a daily mean of 2.5±2.1. There was a strong correlation between pollutants and hospital admissions, except for ozone. Regarding the Poisson regression analysis with the multi-pollutant model, only nitrogen dioxide was statistically significant in the same day (relative risk - RR=1.016), as well as particulate matter with a lag of four days (RR=1.009) after exposure to pollutants. CONCLUSIONS: There was an acute effect of exposure to nitrogen dioxide and a later effect of exposure to particulate matter on children hospitalizations for pneumonia in Sorocaba. PMID:24473956

Spatial-temporal clustering of tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2016-12-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

Spatial-Temporal Clustering of Tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Bruce D.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Brooks, Harold E.

2017-04-01

The standard measure of the intensity of a tornado is the Enhanced Fujita scale, which is based qualitatively on the damage caused by a tornado. An alternative measure of tornado intensity is the tornado path length, L. Here we examine the spatial-temporal clustering of severe tornadoes, which we define as having path lengths L ≥ 10 km. Of particular concern are tornado outbreaks, when a large number of severe tornadoes occur in a day in a restricted region. We apply a spatial-temporal clustering analysis developed for earthquakes. We take all pairs of severe tornadoes in observed and modelled outbreaks, and for each pair plot the spatial lag (distance between touchdown points) against the temporal lag (time between touchdown points). We apply our spatial-temporal lag methodology to the intense tornado outbreaks in the central United States on 26 and 27 April 2011, which resulted in over 300 fatalities and produced 109 severe (L ≥ 10 km) tornadoes. The patterns of spatial-temporal lag correlations that we obtain for the 2 days are strikingly different. On 26 April 2011, there were 45 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is dominated by a complex sequence of linear features. We associate the linear patterns with the tornadoes generated in either a single cell thunderstorm or a closely spaced cluster of single cell thunderstorms moving at a near-constant velocity. Our study of a derecho tornado outbreak of six severe tornadoes on 4 April 2011 along with modelled outbreak scenarios confirms this association. On 27 April 2011, there were 64 severe tornadoes and our clustering analysis is predominantly random with virtually no embedded linear patterns. We associate this pattern with a large number of interacting supercell thunderstorms generating tornadoes randomly in space and time. In order to better understand these associations, we also applied our approach to the Great Plains tornado outbreak of 3 May 1999. Careful studies by others have associated individual tornadoes with specified supercell thunderstorms. Our analysis of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak directly associated linear features in the largely random spatial-temporal analysis with several supercell thunderstorms, which we then confirmed using model scenarios of synthetic tornado outbreaks. We suggest that it may be possible to develop a semi-automated modelling of tornado touchdowns to match the type of observations made on the 3 May 1999 outbreak.

Genetic Determinants of Thrombin Generation and Their Relation to Venous Thrombosis: Results from the GAIT-2 Project

PubMed Central

Martin-Fernandez, Laura; Ziyatdinov, Andrey; Carrasco, Marina; Millon, Juan Antonio; Martinez-Perez, Angel; Vilalta, Noelia; Brunel, Helena; Font, Montserrat; Hamsten, Anders; Souto, Juan Carlos; Soria, José Manuel

2016-01-01

Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common disease where known genetic risk factors explain only a small portion of the genetic variance. Then, the analysis of intermediate phenotypes, such as thrombin generation assay, can be used to identify novel genetic risk factors that contribute to VTE. Objectives To investigate the genetic basis of distinct quantitative phenotypes of thrombin generation and its relationship to the risk of VTE. Patients/Methods Lag time, thrombin peak and endogenous thrombin potential (ETP) were measured in the families of the Genetic Analysis of Idiopathic Thrombophilia 2 (GAIT-2) Project. This sample consisted of 935 individuals in 35 extended families selected through a proband with idiopathic thrombophilia. We performed also genome wide association studies (GWAS) with thrombin generation phenotypes. Results The results showed that 67% of the variation in the risk of VTE is attributable to genetic factors. The heritabilities of lag time, thrombin peak and ETP were 49%, 54% and 52%, respectively. More importantly, we demonstrated also the existence of positive genetic correlations between thrombin peak or ETP and the risk of VTE. Moreover, the major genetic determinant of thrombin generation was the F2 gene. However, other suggestive signals were observed. Conclusions The thrombin generation phenotypes are strongly genetically determined. The thrombin peak and ETP are significantly genetically correlated with the risk of VTE. In addition, F2 was identified as a major determinant of thrombin generation. We reported suggestive signals that might increase our knowledge to explain the variability of this important phenotype. Validation and functional studies are required to confirm GWAS results. PMID:26784699

Internet and free press are associated with reduced lags in global outbreak reporting.

PubMed

McAlarnen, Lindsey; Smith, Katherine; Brownstein, John S; Jerde, Christopher

2014-10-30

Global outbreak detection and reporting have generally improved for a variety of infectious diseases and geographic regions in recent decades. Nevertheless, lags in outbreak reporting remain a threat to the global human health and economy. In the time between first occurrence of a novel disease incident and public notification of an outbreak, infected individuals have a greater possibility of traveling and spreading the pathogen to other nations. Shortening outbreak reporting lags has the potential to improve global health by preventing local outbreaks from escalating into global epidemics. Reporting lags between the first record and the first public report of an event were calculated for 318 outbreaks occurring 1996-2009. The influence of freedom of the press, Internet usage, per capita health expenditure, and cell phone subscriptions, on the timeliness of outbreak reporting was evaluated. Freer presses and increasing Internet usage correlate with reduced time between the first record of an outbreak and the public report. Increasing Internet usage reduced the expected reporting lag from more than one month in nations without Internet users to one day in those where 75 of 100 people use the Internet. Advances in technology and the emergence of more open and free governments are associated with to improved global infectious disease surveillance.

Determination of the size of the dust torus in H0507+164 through optical and infrared monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Amit Kumar; Rakshit, Suvendu; Kurian, Kshama S.; Stalin, C. S.; Mathew, Blesson; Hoenig, Sebastian; Gandhi, Poshak; Sagar, Ram; Pandge, M. B.

2018-04-01

The time delay between flux variations in different wavelength bands can be used to probe the inner regions of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Here, we present the first measurements of the time delay between optical and near-infrared (NIR) flux variations in H0507+164, a nearby Seyfert 1.5 galaxy at z = 0.018. The observations in the optical V-band and NIR J, H, and Ks bands carried over 35 epochs during the period 2016 October to 2017 April were used to estimate the inner radius of the dusty torus. From a careful reduction and analysis of the data using cross-correlation techniques, we found delayed responses of the J, H, and Ks light curves to the V-band light curve. In the rest frame of the source, the lags between optical and NIR bands are found to be 27.1^{+13.5}_{-12.0} d (V versus J), 30.4^{+13.9}_{-12.0} d (V versus H) and 34.6^{+12.1}_{-9.6} d (V versus Ks). The lags between the optical and different NIR bands are thus consistent with each other. The measured lags indicate that the inner edge of dust torus is located at a distance of 0.029 pc from the central ultraviolet/optical AGN continuum. This is larger than the radius of the broad line region of this object determined from spectroscopic monitoring observations thereby supporting the unification model of AGN. The location of H0507+164 in the τ-MV plane indicates that our results are in excellent agreement with the now known lag-luminosity scaling relationship for dust in AGN.

Evaluation of the limiting antigen avidity EIA (LAg) in people who inject drugs in Greece.

PubMed

Nikolopoulos, G K; Katsoulidou, A; Kantzanou, M; Rokka, C; Tsiara, C; Sypsa, V; Paraskevis, D; Psichogiou, M; Friedman, S; Hatzakis, A

2017-01-01

This analysis assessed the utility of the limiting antigen avidity assay (LAg). Samples of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Greece with documented duration of HIV-1 infection were tested by LAg. A LAg-normalized optical density (ODn) ⩽1·5 corresponds to a recency window period of 130 days. The proportion true recent (PTR) and proportion false recent (PFR) were estimated in 28 seroconverters and in 366 samples collected >6 months after HIV diagnosis, respectively. The association between LAg ODn and HIV RNA level was evaluated in 232 persons. The PTR was 85·7%. The PFR was 20·8% but fell to 5·9% in samples from treatment-naive individuals with long-standing infection (>1 year), and to 0 in samples with the circulating recombinant form CRF35 AD. A LAg-based algorithm with a PFR of 3·3% estimated a similar incidence trend to that calculated by analyses based on HIV-1 seroconversions. In recently infected persons indicated by LAg, the median log10 HIV RNA level was high (5·30, interquartile range 4·56-5·90). LAg can help identify highly infectious HIV(+) individuals as it accurately identifies recent infections and is correlated with the HIV RNA level. It can also produce reliable estimates of HIV-1 incidence.

Diachronous benthic δ18O responses during late Pleistocene terminations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisiecki, Lorraine E.; Raymo, Maureen E.

2009-09-01

Benthic δ18O is often used as a stratigraphic tool to place marine records on a common age model and as a proxy for the timing of ice volume/sea level change. However, Skinner and Shackleton (2005) found that the timing of benthic δ18O change at the last termination differed by 3900 years between one Atlantic site and one Pacific site. These results suggest that benthic δ18O change may not always accurately record the timing of deglaciation. We compare benthic δ18O records from 20 Atlantic sites and 14 Pacific sites to evaluate systematic differences in the timing of terminations in benthic δ18O. Analysis of sedimentation rates derived from the alignment of benthic δ18O suggests a statistically significant Atlantic lead over Pacific benthic δ18O change during the last six terminations. We estimate an average Pacific benthic δ18O lag of 1600 years for Terminations 1-5, slightly larger than the delay expected from ocean mixing rates given that most glacial meltwater probably enters the North Atlantic. We additionally find evidence of ˜4000-year Pacific δ18O lags at approximately 128 ka and 330 ka, suggesting that stratigraphic correlation of δ18O has the potential to generate age model errors of several thousand years during terminations. A simple model demonstrates that these lags can be generated by diachronous temperature changes and do not require slower circulation rates. Most importantly, diachronous benthic δ18O responses must be taken into account when comparing Atlantic and Pacific benthic δ18O records or when using benthic δ18O records as a proxy for the timing of ice volume change.

Quantifying the effect of water activity and storage temperature on single spore lag times of three moulds isolated from spoiled bakery products.

PubMed

Dagnas, Stéphane; Gougouli, Maria; Onno, Bernard; Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos P; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2017-01-02

The inhibitory effect of water activity (a w ) and storage temperature on single spore lag times of Aspergillus niger, Eurotium repens (Aspergillus pseudoglaucus) and Penicillium corylophilum strains isolated from spoiled bakery products, was quantified. A full factorial design was set up for each strain. Data were collected at levels of a w varying from 0.80 to 0.98 and temperature from 15 to 35°C. Experiments were performed on malt agar, at pH5.5. When growth was observed, ca 20 individual growth kinetics per condition were recorded up to 35days. Radius of the colony vs time was then fitted with the Buchanan primary model. For each experimental condition, a lag time variability was observed, it was characterized by its mean, standard deviation (sd) and 5 th percentile, after a Normal distribution fit. As the environmental conditions became stressful (e.g. storage temperature and a w lower), mean and sd of single spore lag time distribution increased, indicating longer lag times and higher variability. The relationship between mean and sd followed a monotonous but not linear pattern, identical whatever the species. Next, secondary models were deployed to estimate the cardinal values (minimal, optimal and maximal temperatures, minimal water activity where no growth is observed anymore) for the three species. That enabled to confirm the observation made based on raw data analysis: concerning the temperature effect, A. niger behaviour was significantly different from E. repens and P. corylophilum: T opt of 37.4°C (standard deviation 1.4°C) instead of 27.1°C (1.4°C) and 25.2°C (1.2°C), respectively. Concerning the a w effect, from the three mould species, E. repens was the species able to grow at the lowest a w (aw min estimated to 0.74 (0.02)). Finally, results obtained with single spores were compared to findings from a previous study carried out at the population level (Dagnas et al., 2014). For short lag times (≤5days), there was no difference between lag time of the population (ca 2000 spores inoculated in one spot) and mean (nor 5 th percentile) of single spore lag time distribution. In contrast, when lag time was longer, i.e. under more stressful conditions, there was a discrepancy between individual and population lag times (population lag times shorter than 5 th percentiles of single spore lag time distribution), confirming a stochastic process. Finally, the temperature cardinal values estimated with single spores were found to be similar to those obtained at the population level, whatever the species. All these findings will be used to describe better mould spore lag time variability and then to predict more accurately bakery product shelf-life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration of Watershed Lag Time Equation for Philippine Hydrology using RADARSAT Digital Elevation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipriano, F. R.; Lagmay, A. M. A.; Horritt, M.; Mendoza, J.; Sabio, G.; Punay, K. N.; Taniza, H. J.; Uichanco, C.

2015-12-01

Widespread flooding is a major problem in the Philippines. The country experiences heavy amount of rainfall throughout the year and several areas are prone to flood hazards because of its unique topography. Human casualties and destruction of infrastructure are just some of the damages caused by flooding and the Philippine government has undertaken various efforts to mitigate these hazards. One of the solutions was to create flood hazard maps of different floodplains and use them to predict the possible catastrophic results of different rain scenarios. To produce these maps with accurate output, different input parameters were needed and one of those is calculating hydrological components from topographical data. This paper presents how a calibrated lag time (TL) equation was obtained using measurable catchment parameters. Lag time is an essential input in flood mapping and is defined as the duration between the peak rainfall and peak discharge of the watershed. The lag time equation involves three measurable parameters, namely, watershed length (L), maximum potential retention (S) derived from the curve number, and watershed slope (Y), all of which were available from RADARSAT Digital Elevation Models (DEM). This approach was based on a similar method developed by CH2M Hill and Horritt for Taiwan, which has a similar set of meteorological and hydrological parameters with the Philippines. Rainfall data from fourteen water level sensors covering 67 storms from all the regions in the country were used to estimate the actual lag time. These sensors were chosen by using a screening process that considers the distance of the sensors from the sea, the availability of recorded data, and the catchment size. The actual lag time values were plotted against the values obtained from the Natural Resource Conservation Management handbook lag time equation. Regression analysis was used to obtain the final calibrated equation that would be used to calculate the lag time specifically for rivers in the Philippine setting. The calculated lag time values could then be used as a parameter for modeling different flood scenarios in the country.

Temporal variability and climatology of hydrodynamic, water property and water quality parameters in the West Johor Strait of Singapore.

PubMed

Behera, Manasa Ranjan; Chun, Cui; Palani, Sundarambal; Tkalich, Pavel

2013-12-15

The study presents a baseline variability and climatology study of measured hydrodynamic, water properties and some water quality parameters of West Johor Strait, Singapore at hourly-to-seasonal scales to uncover their dependency and correlation to one or more drivers. The considered parameters include, but not limited by sea surface elevation, current magnitude and direction, solar radiation and air temperature, water temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and turbidity. FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) analysis is carried out for the parameters to delineate relative effect of tidal and weather drivers. The group and individual correlations between the parameters are obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) and cross-correlation (CC) technique, respectively. The CC technique also identifies the dependency and time lag between driving natural forces and dependent water property and water quality parameters. The temporal variability and climatology of the driving forces and the dependent parameters are established at the hourly, daily, fortnightly and seasonal scales. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reciprocal relations between body satisfaction and self-esteem: A large 13-year prospective study of adolescents.

PubMed

Wichstrøm, Lars; von Soest, Tilmann

2016-02-01

Previous research has demonstrated that body satisfaction and self-esteem are highly correlated in adolescence, but reasons are poorly understood. We tested three explanations: (i) the two constructs are actually one; (ii) the correlation is explained by a third factor; (iii) there are prospective relationships between body satisfaction and self-esteem. A population based sample of Norwegian adolescents (n = 3251) was examined four times over a 13-year period. Confirmatory factor analysis showed that body satisfaction and self-esteem were separate constructs and the correlation between them was not attenuated when adjusting for 3rd variables. Autoregressive cross-lagged analysis showed reciprocal relations between body satisfaction and self-esteem. The prospective relationship between body satisfaction during adolescence and self-esteem in late adolescence and emerging adulthood was stronger than at later stages. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andrés; Bloch, Michael H.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine if there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized, placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years old with major depressive disorder. Our main outcomes were (1) time to publication of positive versus negative trials, and (2) proportion of treatment responders in trials with standard (< 3 years after study completion) versus delayed publication. Results We identified 15 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of SRIs for pediatric depression. Trials with negative findings had a significantly longer time to publication (median years ± standard deviation = 4.2 ±1.9) than trials with positive findings (2.2 ±0.9; log-rank χ2 = 4.35, p = 0.037). The estimated efficacy in trials with standard publication time (number needed to treat = 7, 95% CI: 5 – 11) was significantly greater than those with delayed publication (17, 95% CI: 9 – ∞; χ2 = 4.98, p = 0.025). The inflation-adjusted impact factor of journals for published trials with positive (15.33 ±11.01) and negative results (7.54 ±7.90) did not statistically differ (t = 1.4, df = 10, p = 0.17). Conclusions Despite a small number of trials of SRIs for pediatric antidepressants we found a significant evidence of time-lag bias in the publication of findings. This time-lag bias altered the perceived efficacy of pediatric antidepressants in the medical literature. Time-lag bias is not unique to child psychiatry and reflects a larger problem in scientific publishing. PMID:21156271

The interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in a Sri Lankan city and its potential applications

PubMed Central

Ehelepola, N. D. B.; Ariyaratne, Kusalika

2015-01-01

Background Temperature, humidity, and other weather variables influence dengue transmission. Published studies show how the diurnal fluctuations of temperature around different mean temperatures influence dengue transmission. There are no published studies about the correlation between diurnal range of humidity and dengue transmission. Objective The goals of this study were to determine the correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal fluctuations of temperature and humidity in the Sri Lankan city of Kandy and to explore the possibilities of using that information for better control of dengue. Design We calculated the weekly dengue incidence in Kandy during the period 2003–2012, after collecting data on all of the reported dengue patients and estimated midyear populations. Data on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and night-time and daytime humidity were obtained from two weather stations, averaged, and converted into weekly data. The number of days per week with a diurnal temperature range (DTR) of >10°C and <10°C and the number of days per week with a diurnal humidity range (DHR) of >20 and <15% were calculated. Wavelet time series analysis was performed to determine the correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity. Results There were negative correlations between dengue incidence and a DTR >10°C and a DHR >20% with 3.3-week and 4-week lag periods, respectively. Additionally, positive correlations between dengue incidence and a DTR <10°C and a DHR <15% with 3- and 4-week lag periods, respectively, were discovered. Conclusions These findings are consistent with the results of previous entomological studies and theoretical models of DTR and dengue transmission correlation. It is important to conduct similar studies on diurnal fluctuations of humidity in the future. We suggest ways and means to use this information for local dengue control and to mitigate the potential effects of the ongoing global reduction of DTR on dengue incidence. PMID:26632645

Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Haikun; Wu, Liguang; Raga, G. B.

2018-02-01

This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979-2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979-1997), a moderately positive correlation (0.35) between previous-year local SST and TCF is found, while a significantly negative correlation (- 0.71) is found since the shift (1998-2014). The inter-decadal change of the lagged relationship between TCF and local SST over the WNP is also accompanied by an inter-decadal change in the lagged inter-annual relationship between large-scale factors affecting TCs and local SST over the WNP. During 1998-2014, the previous-year local SST shows a significant negative correlation with the mid-level moisture and a significant positive correlation with the vertical wind shear over the main development region of WNP TC genesis. Almost opposite relationships are seen during 1979-1997, with a smaller magnitude of the correlation coefficients. These changes are consistent with the changes of the lagged inter-annual relationship between upper- and lower-level winds and local SST over the WNP. Analyses further suggests that the inter-decadal shift of the lagged inter-annual relationship between WNP TCF and local SST may be closely linked to the inter-decadal change of inter-annual SST transition over the tropical central-eastern Pacific associated with the climate regime shift in the late 1990s. Details on the underlying physical process need further investigation using observations and simulations.

Time-frequency wavelet analysis of the interrelationship between the global macro assets and the fear indexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abid, Fathi; Kaffel, Bilel

2018-01-01

Understanding the interrelationships of the global macro assets is crucial for global macro investing. This paper investigates the local variance and the interconnection between the stock, gold, oil, Forex and the implied volatility markets in the time/frequency domains using the wavelet methodology, including the wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet squared coherence and phase difference, the wavelet multiple correlation and cross-correlation. The univariate analysis reveals that, in some crisis periods, underlying asset markets present the same pattern in terms of the wavelet power spectrum indicating high volatility for the medium scale, and that for the other market stress periods, volatility behaves differently. Moreover, unlike the underlying asset markets, the implied volatility markets are characterized by high power regions across the entire period, even in the absence of economic events. Bivariate results show a bidirectional relationship between the underlying assets and their corresponding implied volatility indexes, and a steady co-movement between the stock index and its corresponding fear index. Multiple correlation analysis indicates a strong correlation between markets at high scales with evidence of a nearly perfect integration for a period longer than a year. In addition, the hedging strategies based on the volatility index lead to an increase in portfolio correlation. On the other hand, the results from multiple cross-correlations reveal that the lead-lag effect starts from the medium scale and that the VIX (stock market volatility index) index is the potential leader or follower of the other markets.

Analysis of brain patterns using temporal measures

DOEpatents

Georgopoulos, Apostolos

2015-08-11

A set of brain data representing a time series of neurophysiologic activity acquired by spatially distributed sensors arranged to detect neural signaling of a brain (such as by the use of magnetoencephalography) is obtained. The set of brain data is processed to obtain a dynamic brain model based on a set of statistically-independent temporal measures, such as partial cross correlations, among groupings of different time series within the set of brain data. The dynamic brain model represents interactions between neural populations of the brain occurring close in time, such as with zero lag, for example. The dynamic brain model can be analyzed to obtain the neurophysiologic assessment of the brain. Data processing techniques may be used to assess structural or neurochemical brain pathologies.

Response of spectral vegetation indices to soil moisture in grasslands and shrublands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Li; Ji, Lei; Wylie, Bruce K.

2011-01-01

The relationships between satellite-derived vegetation indices (VIs) and soil moisture are complicated because of the time lag of the vegetation response to soil moisture. In this study, we used a distributed lag regression model to evaluate the lag responses of VIs to soil moisture for grasslands and shrublands at Soil Climate Analysis Network sites in the central and western United States. We examined the relationships between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived VIs and soil moisture measurements. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed significant lag responses to soil moisture. The lag length varies from 8 to 56 days for NDVI and from 16 to 56 days for NDWI. However, the lag response of NDVI and NDWI to soil moisture varied among the sites. Our study suggests that the lag effect needs to be taken into consideration when the VIs are used to estimate soil moisture.

Spatial analysis of highway incident durations in the context of Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

Xie, Kun; Ozbay, Kaan; Yang, Hong

2015-01-01

The objectives of this study are (1) to develop an incident duration model which can account for the spatial dependence of duration observations, and (2) to investigate the impacts of a hurricane on incident duration. Highway incident data from New York City and its surrounding regions before and after Hurricane Sandy was used for the study. Moran's I statistics confirmed that durations of the neighboring incidents were spatially correlated. Moreover, Lagrange Multiplier tests suggested that the spatial dependence should be captured in a spatial lag specification. A spatial error model, a spatial lag model and a standard model without consideration of spatial effects were developed. The spatial lag model is found to outperform the others by capturing the spatial dependence of incident durations via a spatially lagged dependent variable. It was further used to assess the effects of hurricane-related variables on incident duration. The results show that the incidents during and post the hurricane are expected to have 116.3% and 79.8% longer durations than those that occurred in the regular time. However, no significant increase in incident duration is observed in the evacuation period before Sandy's landfall. Results of temporal stability tests further confirm the existence of the significant changes in incident duration patterns during and post the hurricane. Those findings can provide insights to aid in the development of hurricane evacuation plans and emergency management strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Information theoretical approach to discovering solar wind drivers of the outer radiation belt

DOE PAGES

Wing, Simon; Johnson, Jay R.; Camporeale, Enrico; ...

2016-07-29

The solar wind-magnetosphere system is nonlinear. The solar wind drivers of geosynchronous electrons with energy range of 1.8–3.5 MeV are investigated using mutual information, conditional mutual information (CMI), and transfer entropy (TE). These information theoretical tools can establish linear and nonlinear relationships as well as information transfer. The information transfer from solar wind velocity ( Vsw) to geosynchronous MeV electron flux ( Je) peaks with a lag time of 2 days. As previously reported, Je is anticorrelated with solar wind density ( nsw) with a lag of 1 day. However, this lag time and anticorrelation can be attributed at leastmore » partly to the Je( t + 2 days) correlation with Vsw( t) and nsw( t + 1 day) anticorrelation with Vsw( t). Analyses of solar wind driving of the magnetosphere need to consider the large lag times, up to 3 days, in the ( Vsw, nsw) anticorrelation. Using CMI to remove the effects of Vsw, the response of Je to nsw is 30% smaller and has a lag time < 24 h, suggesting that the MeV electron loss mechanism due to nsw or solar wind dynamic pressure has to start operating in < 24 h. nsw transfers about 36% as much information as Vsw (the primary driver) to Je. Nonstationarity in the system dynamics is investigated using windowed TE. Here, when the data are ordered according to transfer entropy value, it is possible to understand details of the triangle distribution that has been identified between Je( t + 2 days) versus Vsw( t).« less

Information theoretical approach to discovering solar wind drivers of the outer radiation belt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wing, Simon; Johnson, Jay R.; Camporeale, Enrico

The solar wind-magnetosphere system is nonlinear. The solar wind drivers of geosynchronous electrons with energy range of 1.8–3.5 MeV are investigated using mutual information, conditional mutual information (CMI), and transfer entropy (TE). These information theoretical tools can establish linear and nonlinear relationships as well as information transfer. The information transfer from solar wind velocity ( Vsw) to geosynchronous MeV electron flux ( Je) peaks with a lag time of 2 days. As previously reported, Je is anticorrelated with solar wind density ( nsw) with a lag of 1 day. However, this lag time and anticorrelation can be attributed at leastmore » partly to the Je( t + 2 days) correlation with Vsw( t) and nsw( t + 1 day) anticorrelation with Vsw( t). Analyses of solar wind driving of the magnetosphere need to consider the large lag times, up to 3 days, in the ( Vsw, nsw) anticorrelation. Using CMI to remove the effects of Vsw, the response of Je to nsw is 30% smaller and has a lag time < 24 h, suggesting that the MeV electron loss mechanism due to nsw or solar wind dynamic pressure has to start operating in < 24 h. nsw transfers about 36% as much information as Vsw (the primary driver) to Je. Nonstationarity in the system dynamics is investigated using windowed TE. Here, when the data are ordered according to transfer entropy value, it is possible to understand details of the triangle distribution that has been identified between Je( t + 2 days) versus Vsw( t).« less

Does it get better? A longitudinal analysis of psychological distress and victimization in lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning youth.

PubMed

Birkett, Michelle; Newcomb, Michael E; Mustanski, Brian

2015-03-01

The mental health and victimization of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) youth have garnered media attention with the "It Gets Better Project." Despite this popular interest, there is an absence of empirical evidence evaluating a possible developmental trajectory in LGBTQ distress and the factors that might influence distress over time. This study used an accelerated longitudinal design and multilevel modeling to examine a racially/ethnically diverse analytic sample of 231 LGBTQ adolescents aged 16-20 years at baseline, across six time points, and over 3.5 years. Results indicated that both psychological distress and victimization decreased across adolescence and into early adulthood. Furthermore, time-lagged analyses and mediation analyses suggested that distress was related to prior experiences of victimization, with greater victimization leading to greater distress. Support received from parents, peers, and significant others was negatively correlated with psychological distress in the cross-sectional model but did not reach significance in the time-lagged model. Analyses suggest that psychological distress might "get better" when adolescents encounter less victimization and adds to a growing literature indicating that early experiences of stress impact the mental health of LGBTQ youth. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Short-term effects of floods on Japanese encephalitis in Nanchong, China, 2007-2012: A time-stratified case-crossover study.

PubMed

Zhang, Feifei; Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Caixia; Jiang, Baofa

2016-09-01

This time-stratified case-crossover study aimed to quantify the impact of floods on daily Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases from 2007 to 2012 in Nanchong city of Sichuan Province, China. Using conditional logistic regression analysis, we calculated the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) at different lagged days, adjusting for daily average temperature (AT) and daily average relative humidity (ARH). A total of 370 JE cases were notified during the study period, with the median patient age being 4.2years. The seasonal pattern of JE cases clustered in July and August during the study period. Floods were significantly associated with an increased number of JE cases from lag 23 to lag 24, with the strongest lag effect at lag 23 (OR=2.00, 95% CI: 1.14-3.52). Similarly, AT and ARH were positively associated with daily JE cases from lag 0 to lag 8 and from lag 0 to lag 9, respectively. Floods, with AT and ARH, can be used to forecast JE outbreaks in the study area. Based on the results of this study, recommendations include undertaking control measures before the number of cases increases, especially for regions with similar geographic, climatic, and socio-economic conditions as those in the study area. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical Optimization of the Position in Femoral Head of Proximal Locking Screws of Proximal Femoral Nail System; Biomechanical Study.

PubMed

Konya, Mehmet Nuri; Verim, Özgür

2017-09-29

Proximal femoral fracture rates are increasing due to osteoporosis and traffic accidents. Proximal femoral nails are routinely used in the treatment of these fractures in the proximal femur. To compare various combinations and to determine the ideal proximal lag screw position in pertrochanteric fractures (Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Osteosynthesefragen classification 31-A1) of the femur by using optimized finite element analysis. Biomechanical study. Computed tomography images of patients' right femurs were processed with Mimics. Afterwards a solid femur model was created with SolidWorks 2015 and transferred to ANSYS Workbench 16.0 for response surface optimization analysis which was carried out according to anterior-posterior (-10°0) and posterior-anterior directions of the femur neck significantly increased these stresses. The most suitable position of the proximal lag screw was confirmed as the middle of the femoral neck by using optimized finite element analysis.

Evidence for hot clumpy accretion flow in the transitional millisecond pulsar PSR J1023+0038

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahbaz, T.; Dallilar, Y.; Garner, A.; Eikenberry, S.; Veledina, A.; Gandhi, P.

2018-06-01

We present simultaneous optical and near-infrared (IR) photometry of the millisecond pulsar PSR J1023+0038 during its low-mass X-ray binary phase. The r΄- and Ks-band light curves show rectangular, flat-bottomed dips, similar to the X-ray mode-switching (active-passive state transitions) behaviour observed previously. The cross-correlation function (CCF) of the optical and near-IR data reveals a strong, broad negative anticorrelation at negative lags, a broad positive correlation at positive lags, with a strong, positive narrow correlation superimposed. The shape of the CCF resembles the CCF of black hole X-ray binaries but the time-scales are different. The features can be explained by reprocessing and a hot accretion flow close to the neutron star's magnetospheric radius. The optical emission is dominated by the reprocessed component, whereas the near-IR emission contains the emission from plasmoids in the hot accretion flow and a reprocessed component. The rapid active-passive state transition occurs when the hot accretion flow material is channelled on to the neutron star and is expelled from its magnetosphere. During the transition the optical reprocessing component decreases resulting in the removal of a blue spectral component. The accretion of clumpy material through the magnetic barrier of the neutron star produces the observed near-IR/optical CCF and variability. The dip at negative lags corresponds to the suppression of the near-IR synchrotron component in the hot flow, whereas the broad positive correlation at positive lags is driven by the increased synchrotron emission of the outflowing plasmoids. The narrow peak in the CCF is due to the delayed reprocessed component, enhanced by the increased X-ray emission.

Statistical properties of the radiation belt seed population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyd, A. J.; Spence, H. E.; Huang, C. -L.

Here, we present a statistical analysis of phase space density data from the first 26 months of the Van Allen Probes mission. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the tens and hundreds of keV seed electrons and >1 MeV core radiation belt electron population. Using a cross-correlation analysis, we find that the seed and core populations are well correlated with a coefficient of ≈0.73 with a time lag of 10–15 h. We present evidence of a seed population threshold that is necessary for subsequent acceleration. The depth of penetration of the seed population determines the inner boundary of themore » acceleration process. However, we show that an enhanced seed population alone is not enough to produce acceleration in the higher energies, implying that the seed population of hundreds of keV electrons is only one of several conditions required for MeV electron radiation belt acceleration.« less

Statistical properties of the radiation belt seed population

DOE PAGES

Boyd, A. J.; Spence, H. E.; Huang, C. -L.; ...

2016-07-25

Here, we present a statistical analysis of phase space density data from the first 26 months of the Van Allen Probes mission. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the tens and hundreds of keV seed electrons and >1 MeV core radiation belt electron population. Using a cross-correlation analysis, we find that the seed and core populations are well correlated with a coefficient of ≈0.73 with a time lag of 10–15 h. We present evidence of a seed population threshold that is necessary for subsequent acceleration. The depth of penetration of the seed population determines the inner boundary of themore » acceleration process. However, we show that an enhanced seed population alone is not enough to produce acceleration in the higher energies, implying that the seed population of hundreds of keV electrons is only one of several conditions required for MeV electron radiation belt acceleration.« less

A prospective study of the trajectories of clinical insight, affective symptoms, and cognitive ability in bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Depp, Colin A.; Harmell, Alexandrea L.; Savla, Gauri N.; Mausbach, Brent T.; Jeste, Dilip V.; Palmer, Barton W.

2014-01-01

Background Clinical insight in bipolar disorder is associated with treatment adherence and psychosocial outcome. The short-term dynamics of clinical insight in relationship to symptoms and cognitive abilities are unknown. Methods In a prospective observational study, a total of 106 outpatients with bipolar disorder I or II were assessed at baseline, 6 weeks, 12 weeks, and 26 weeks. Participants were administered a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, clinical ratings of manic and depressive symptom severity, and self-reported clinical insight. Lagged correlations and linear mixed-effects models were used to determine the temporal associations between symptoms and insight, as well as the moderating influence of global cognitive abilities. Results At baseline, insight was modestly correlated with severity of manic symptoms, but not with depressive symptoms or cognitive abilities. Insight and depressive symptoms fluctuated to approximately the same extent over time. Both lagged correlations and mixed effects models with lagged effects indicated that the severity of manic symptoms predicted worse insight at later assessments, whereas the converse was not significant. There were no direct or moderating influences of global cognitive abilities. Limitations Our sample size was modest, and included relatively psychiatrically stable outpatients, followed for a six month period. Our results may not generalize to acutely symptomatic patients followed over a longer period. Conclusions Clinical insight varies substantially over time within patients with bipolar disorder. Impaired insight in bipolar disorder is more likely to follow than to precede manic symptoms. PMID:24200153

Spatiotemporal image correlation spectroscopy (STICS) theory, verification, and application to protein velocity mapping in living CHO cells.

PubMed

Hebert, Benedict; Costantino, Santiago; Wiseman, Paul W

2005-05-01

We introduce a new extension of image correlation spectroscopy (ICS) and image cross-correlation spectroscopy (ICCS) that relies on complete analysis of both the temporal and spatial correlation lags for intensity fluctuations from a laser-scanning microscopy image series. This new approach allows measurement of both diffusion coefficients and velocity vectors (magnitude and direction) for fluorescently labeled membrane proteins in living cells through monitoring of the time evolution of the full space-time correlation function. By using filtering in Fourier space to remove frequencies associated with immobile components, we are able to measure the protein transport even in the presence of a large fraction (>90%) of immobile species. We present the background theory, computer simulations, and analysis of measurements on fluorescent microspheres to demonstrate proof of principle, capabilities, and limitations of the method. We demonstrate mapping of flow vectors for mixed samples containing fluorescent microspheres with different emission wavelengths using space time image cross-correlation. We also present results from two-photon laser-scanning microscopy studies of alpha-actinin/enhanced green fluorescent protein fusion constructs at the basal membrane of living CHO cells. Using space-time image correlation spectroscopy (STICS), we are able to measure protein fluxes with magnitudes of mum/min from retracting lamellar regions and protrusions for adherent cells. We also demonstrate the measurement of correlated directed flows (magnitudes of mum/min) and diffusion of interacting alpha5 integrin/enhanced cyan fluorescent protein and alpha-actinin/enhanced yellow fluorescent protein within living CHO cells. The STICS method permits us to generate complete transport maps of proteins within subregions of the basal membrane even if the protein concentration is too high to perform single particle tracking measurements.

Economic Expansion Is a Major Determinant of Physician Supply and Utilization

PubMed Central

Cooper, Richard A; Getzen, Thomas E; Laud, Prakash

2003-01-01

Objective To assess the relationship between levels of economic development and the supply and utilization of physicians. Data Sources Data were obtained from the American Medical Association, American Osteopathic Association, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Bureau of Health Professions, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Health Care Financing Administration, and historical sources. Study Design Economic development, expressed as real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or personal income, was correlated with per capita health care labor and physician supply within countries and states over periods of time spanning 25–70 years and across countries, states, and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at multiple points in time over periods of up to 30 years. Longitudinal data were analyzed in four complementary ways: (1) simple univariate regressions; (2) regressions in which temporal trends were partialled out; (3) time series comparing percentage differences across segments of time; and (4) a bivariate Granger causality test. Cross-sectional data were assessed at multiple time points by means of univariate regression analyses. Principal Findings Under each analytic scenario, physician supply correlated with differences in GDP or personal income. Longitudinal correlations were associated with temporal lags of approximately 5 years for health employment and 10 years for changes in physician supply. The magnitude of changes in per capita physician supply in the United States was equivalent to differences of approximately 0.75 percent for each 1.0 percent difference in GDP. The greatest effects of economic expansion were on the medical specialties, whereas the surgical and hospital-based specialties were affected to a lesser degree, and levels of economic expansion had little influence on family/general practice. Conclusions Economic expansion has a strong, lagged relationship with changes in physician supply. This suggests that economic projections could serve as a gauge for projecting the future utilization of physician services. PMID:12785567

Animal reservoir, natural and socioeconomic variations and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Chenzhou, China, 2006-2010.

PubMed

Xiao, Hong; Tian, Huai-Yu; Gao, Li-Dong; Liu, Hai-Ning; Duan, Liang-Song; Basta, Nicole; Cazelles, Bernard; Li, Xiu-Jun; Lin, Xiao-Ling; Wu, Hong-Wei; Chen, Bi-Yun; Yang, Hui-Suo; Xu, Bing; Grenfell, Bryan

2014-01-01

China has the highest incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) worldwide. Reported cases account for 90% of the total number of global cases. By 2010, approximately 1.4 million HFRS cases had been reported in China. This study aimed to explore the effect of the rodent reservoir, and natural and socioeconomic variables, on the transmission pattern of HFRS. Data on monthly HFRS cases were collected from 2006 to 2010. Dynamic rodent monitoring data, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, climate data, and socioeconomic data were also obtained. Principal component analysis was performed, and the time-lag relationships between the extracted principal components and HFRS cases were analyzed. Polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models were used to fit and forecast HFRS transmission. Four principal components were extracted. Component 1 (F1) represented rodent density, the NDVI, and monthly average temperature. Component 2 (F2) represented monthly average rainfall and monthly average relative humidity. Component 3 (F3) represented rodent density and monthly average relative humidity. The last component (F4) represented gross domestic product and the urbanization rate. F2, F3, and F4 were significantly correlated, with the monthly HFRS incidence with lags of 4 months (r = -0.289, P<0.05), 5 months (r = -0.523, P<0.001), and 0 months (r = -0.376, P<0.01), respectively. F1 was correlated with the monthly HFRS incidence, with a lag of 4 months (r = 0.179, P = 0.192). Multivariate PDL modeling revealed that the four principal components were significantly associated with the transmission of HFRS. The monthly trend in HFRS cases was significantly associated with the local rodent reservoir, climatic factors, the NDVI, and socioeconomic conditions present during the previous months. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS and similar diseases.

A systematic correlation analysis of carotenoids, chlorophyll, non-pigmented cell mass, and cell number for the blueprint of Dunaliella salina culture in a photobioreactor.

PubMed

Song, Hyeon Gi; Byeon, Seon Yeong; Chung, Goo Yong; Jung, Sang-Myung; Choi, Jung Il; Shin, Hwa Sung

2018-05-28

Microalgal carotenoids are attractive health ingredients, but their production should be optimized to improve cost-effectiveness. Understanding cellular physiology centered on carotenoid synthesis is the prerequisite for this work. Therefore, systematic correlation analyses were conducted among chlorophyll, carotenoids, non-pigmented cell mass, and cell number of Dunaliella salina in a specified condition over a relatively long culture time. First, an integrated correlation was performed: a temporal profile of the carotenoids was correlated with those of other factors, including chlorophyll, non-pigmented cell mass, and cell number. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses were performed to identify linearity and monotonicity of the correlation, respectively, and then cross-correlation was executed to determine if the correlation had a time lag. Second, to understand the cellular potential of metabolism, the procedure was repeated to provide a data set composed of the specific synthesis rates of the factors or growth rate, which additionally provided kinetic correlations among the constituting components of the cell, excluding the effect of cell number. This systematic approach could generate a blueprint model that is composed of only what it needs, which could make it possible to efficiently control and optimize the process.

Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

1973-01-01

The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

Development of press-coated, floating-pulsatile drug delivery of lisinopril.

PubMed

Jagdale, Swati C; Suryawanshi, Vishnu M; Pandya, Sudhir V; Kuchekar, Bhanudas S; Chabukswar, Aniruddha R

2014-01-01

Lisinopril is an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, primarily used for the treatment of hypertension, congestive heart failure, and heart attack. It belongs to BCS class III having a half-life of 12 hrs and 25% bioavailability. The purpose of the present work was to develop a press-coated, floating-pulsatile drug delivery system. The core tablet was formulated using the super-disintegrants crosprovidone and croscarmellose sodium. A press-coated tablet (barrier layer) contained the polymer carrageenan, xanthan gum, HPMC K4M, and HPMC K15M. The buoyant layer was optimized with HPMC K100M, sodium bicarbonate, and citric acid. The tablets were evaluated for physical characteristics, floating lag time, swelling index, FTIR, DSC, and in vitro and in vivo behavior. The 5% superdisintgrant showed good results. The FTIR and DSC study predicted no chemical interactions between the drug and excipients. The formulation containing xanthan gum showed drug retaining abilities, but failed to float. The tablet containing HPMC K15M showed a high swelling index. The lag time for the tablet coated with 200 mg carrageenan was 3±0.1 hrs with 99.99±1.5% drug release; with 140 mg HPMC K4M, the lag time was 3±0.1 hrs with 99.71±1.2% drug release; and with 120 mg HPMC K15M, the lag time was 3±0.2 hrs with 99.98±1.7% drug release. The release mechanism of the tablet followed the Korsmeyer-Peppas equation and a first-order release pattern. Floating and lag time behavior have shown good in vitro and in vivo correlations.

Growth-incompetent monomers of human calcitonin lead to a noncanonical direct relationship between peptide concentration and aggregation lag time.

PubMed

Kamgar-Parsi, Kian; Hong, Liu; Naito, Akira; Brooks, Charles L; Ramamoorthy, Ayyalusamy

2017-09-08

The role of the peptide hormone calcitonin in skeletal protection has led to its use as a therapeutic for osteoporosis. However, calcitonin aggregation into amyloid fibrils limits its therapeutic efficacy, necessitating a modification of calcitonin's aggregation kinetics. Here, we report a direct relationship between human calcitonin (hCT) concentration and aggregation lag time. This kinetic trend was contrary to the conventional understanding of amyloid aggregation and persisted over a range of aggregation conditions, as confirmed by thioflavin-T kinetics assays, CD spectroscopy, and transmission EM. Dynamic light scattering, 1 H NMR experiments, and seeded thioflavin-T assay results indicated that differences in initial peptide species contribute to this trend more than variations in the primary nucleus formation rate. On the basis of kinetics modeling results, we propose a mechanism whereby a structural conversion of hCT monomers is needed before incorporation into the fibril. Our kinetic mechanism recapitulates the experimentally observed relationship between peptide concentration and lag time and represents a novel mechanism in amyloid aggregation. Interestingly, hCT at low pH and salmon calcitonin (sCT) exhibited the canonical inverse relationship between concentration and lag time. Comparative studies of hCT and sCT with molecular dynamics simulations and CD indicated an increased α-helical structure in sCT and low-pH hCT monomers compared with neutral-pH hCT, suggesting that α-helical monomers represent a growth-competent species, whereas unstructured random coil monomers represent a growth-incompetent species. Our finding that initial monomer concentration is positively correlated with lag time in hCT aggregation could help inform future efforts for improving therapeutic applications of CT. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Development of Press-Coated, Floating-Pulsatile Drug Delivery of Lisinopril

PubMed Central

Jagdale, Swati C.; Suryawanshi, Vishnu M.; Pandya, Sudhir V.; Kuchekar, Bhanudas S.; Chabukswar, Aniruddha R.

2014-01-01

Lisinopril is an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, primarily used for the treatment of hypertension, congestive heart failure, and heart attack. It belongs to BCS class III having a half-life of 12 hrs and 25% bioavailability. The purpose of the present work was to develop a press-coated, floating-pulsatile drug delivery system. The core tablet was formulated using the super-disintegrants crosprovidone and croscarmellose sodium. A press-coated tablet (barrier layer) contained the polymer carrageenan, xanthan gum, HPMC K4M, and HPMC K15M. The buoyant layer was optimized with HPMC K100M, sodium bicarbonate, and citric acid. The tablets were evaluated for physical characteristics, floating lag time, swelling index, FTIR, DSC, and in vitro and in vivo behavior. The 5% superdisintgrant showed good results. The FTIR and DSC study predicted no chemical interactions between the drug and excipients. The formulation containing xanthan gum showed drug retaining abilities, but failed to float. The tablet containing HPMC K15M showed a high swelling index. The lag time for the tablet coated with 200 mg carrageenan was 3±0.1 hrs with 99.99±1.5% drug release; with 140 mg HPMC K4M, the lag time was 3±0.1 hrs with 99.71±1.2% drug release; and with 120 mg HPMC K15M, the lag time was 3±0.2 hrs with 99.98±1.7% drug release. The release mechanism of the tablet followed the Korsmeyer-Peppas equation and a first-order release pattern. Floating and lag time behavior have shown good in vitro and in vivo correlations. PMID:24959410

Radio pulsar glitches as a state-dependent Poisson process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulgenzi, W.; Melatos, A.; Hughes, B. D.

2017-10-01

Gross-Pitaevskii simulations of vortex avalanches in a neutron star superfluid are limited computationally to ≲102 vortices and ≲102 avalanches, making it hard to study the long-term statistics of radio pulsar glitches in realistically sized systems. Here, an idealized, mean-field model of the observed Gross-Pitaevskii dynamics is presented, in which vortex unpinning is approximated as a state-dependent, compound Poisson process in a single random variable, the spatially averaged crust-superfluid lag. Both the lag-dependent Poisson rate and the conditional distribution of avalanche-driven lag decrements are inputs into the model, which is solved numerically (via Monte Carlo simulations) and analytically (via a master equation). The output statistics are controlled by two dimensionless free parameters: α, the glitch rate at a reference lag, multiplied by the critical lag for unpinning, divided by the spin-down rate; and β, the minimum fraction of the lag that can be restored by a glitch. The system evolves naturally to a self-regulated stationary state, whose properties are determined by α/αc(β), where αc(β) ≈ β-1/2 is a transition value. In the regime α ≳ αc(β), one recovers qualitatively the power-law size and exponential waiting-time distributions observed in many radio pulsars and Gross-Pitaevskii simulations. For α ≪ αc(β), the size and waiting-time distributions are both power-law-like, and a correlation emerges between size and waiting time until the next glitch, contrary to what is observed in most pulsars. Comparisons with astrophysical data are restricted by the small sample sizes available at present, with ≤35 events observed per pulsar.

Reentrainment of the circadian pacemaker during jet lag: East-west asymmetry and the effects of north-south travel.

PubMed

Diekman, Casey O; Bose, Amitabha

2018-01-21

The normal alignment of circadian rhythms with the 24-h light-dark cycle is disrupted after rapid travel between home and destination time zones, leading to sleep problems, indigestion, and other symptoms collectively known as jet lag. Using mathematical and computational analysis, we study the process of reentrainment to the light-dark cycle of the destination time zone in a model of the human circadian pacemaker. We calculate the reentrainment time for travel between any two points on the globe at any time of the day and year. We construct one-dimensional entrainment maps to explain several properties of jet lag, such as why most people experience worse jet lag after traveling east than west. We show that this east-west asymmetry depends on the endogenous period of the traveler's circadian clock as well as daylength. Thus the critical factor is not simply whether the endogenous period is greater than or less than 24 h as is commonly assumed. We show that the unstable fixed point of an entrainment map determines whether a traveler reentrains through phase advances or phase delays, providing an understanding of the threshold that separates orthodromic and antidromic modes of reentrainment. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that jet lag only occurs after east-west travel across multiple time zones, we predict that the change in daylength encountered during north-south travel can cause jet lag even when no time zones are crossed. Our techniques could be used to provide advice to travelers on how to minimize jet lag on trips involving multiple destinations and a combination of transmeridian and translatitudinal travel. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic and Sociological Correlates of Suicides: Multilevel Analysis of the Time Series Data in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Sun, Bruce Qiang; Zhang, Jie

2016-03-01

For the effects of social integration on suicides, there have been different and even contradictive conclusions. In this study, the selected economic and social risks of suicide for different age groups and genders in the United Kingdom were identified and the effects were estimated by the multilevel time series analyses. To our knowledge, there exist no previous studies that estimated a dynamic model of suicides on the time series data together with multilevel analysis and autoregressive distributed lags. The investigation indicated that unemployment rate, inflation rate, and divorce rate are all significantly and positively related to the national suicide rates in the United Kingdom from 1981 to 2011. Furthermore, the suicide rates of almost all groups above 40 years are significantly associated with the risk factors of unemployment and inflation rate, in comparison with the younger groups. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, Nicholas J.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Woollings, Tim; Plumb, R. Alan

2016-04-01

Lagged correlation analysis is often used to infer intraseasonal dynamical effects but is known to be affected by nonstationarity. We highlight a pronounced quasi 2 year peak in the anomalous zonal wind and eddy momentum flux convergence power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, which is prima facie evidence for nonstationarity. We then investigate the consequences of this nonstationarity for the Southern Annular Mode and for eddy momentum flux convergence. We argue that positive lagged correlations previously attributed to the existence of an eddy feedback are more plausibly attributed to nonstationary interannual variability external to any potential feedback process in the midlatitude troposphere. The findings have implications for the diagnosis of feedbacks in both models and reanalysis data as well as for understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in the zonal wind.

Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Byrne, Nicholas J; Shepherd, Theodore G; Woollings, Tim; Plumb, R Alan

2016-04-28

Lagged correlation analysis is often used to infer intraseasonal dynamical effects but is known to be affected by nonstationarity. We highlight a pronounced quasi 2 year peak in the anomalous zonal wind and eddy momentum flux convergence power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, which is prima facie evidence for nonstationarity. We then investigate the consequences of this nonstationarity for the Southern Annular Mode and for eddy momentum flux convergence. We argue that positive lagged correlations previously attributed to the existence of an eddy feedback are more plausibly attributed to nonstationary interannual variability external to any potential feedback process in the midlatitude troposphere. The findings have implications for the diagnosis of feedbacks in both models and reanalysis data as well as for understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in the zonal wind.

Methods of Reverberation Mapping. I. Time-lag Determination by Measures of Randomness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chelouche, Doron; Pozo-Nuñez, Francisco; Zucker, Shay, E-mail: doron@sci.haifa.ac.il, E-mail: francisco.pozon@gmail.com, E-mail: shayz@post.tau.ac.il

A class of methods for measuring time delays between astronomical time series is introduced in the context of quasar reverberation mapping, which is based on measures of randomness or complexity of the data. Several distinct statistical estimators are considered that do not rely on polynomial interpolations of the light curves nor on their stochastic modeling, and do not require binning in correlation space. Methods based on von Neumann’s mean-square successive-difference estimator are found to be superior to those using other estimators. An optimized von Neumann scheme is formulated, which better handles sparsely sampled data and outperforms current implementations of discretemore » correlation function methods. This scheme is applied to existing reverberation data of varying quality, and consistency with previously reported time delays is found. In particular, the size–luminosity relation of the broad-line region in quasars is recovered with a scatter comparable to that obtained by other works, yet with fewer assumptions made concerning the process underlying the variability. The proposed method for time-lag determination is particularly relevant for irregularly sampled time series, and in cases where the process underlying the variability cannot be adequately modeled.« less

Investigation of Spectral Lag and Epeak as Joint Luminosity Indicators in GRBs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor); Norris, Jay P.

2003-01-01

Models for gamma-ray bursts which invoke jetted, colliding shells would appear to have at least two determinants for luminosity, e.g., observer viewing angle and Lorentz factor, or possibly shell mass. The latter two internal physical parameters may vary from pulse to pulse within a burst, and such variation might be reflected in evolution of observables such as spectral lag and peak in the spectral energy distribution. We analyze bright BATSE bursts using the 16-channel medium energy resolution (MER) data, with time resolutions of 16 and 64 ms, measuring spectral lags and peak energies for significant pulse structures within a burst, identified using a Bayesian block algorithm. We then explore correlations between the measured parameters and total flux for the individual pulse structures.

Dynamics and causalities of atmospheric and oceanic data identified by complex networks and Granger causality analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charakopoulos, A. K.; Katsouli, G. A.; Karakasidis, T. E.

2018-04-01

Understanding the underlying processes and extracting detailed characteristics of spatiotemporal dynamics of ocean and atmosphere as well as their interaction is of significant interest and has not been well thoroughly established. The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of two main additional methodologies for the identification of spatiotemporal underlying dynamic characteristics and patterns among atmospheric and oceanic variables from Seawatch buoys from Aegean and Ionian Sea, provided by the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR). The first approach involves the estimation of cross correlation analysis in an attempt to investigate time-lagged relationships, and further in order to identify the direction of interactions between the variables we performed the Granger causality method. According to the second approach the time series are converted into complex networks and then the main topological network properties such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity and clustering coefficient are evaluated. Our results show that the proposed analysis of complex network analysis of time series can lead to the extraction of hidden spatiotemporal characteristics. Also our findings indicate high level of positive and negative correlations and causalities among variables, both from the same buoy and also between buoys from different stations, which cannot be determined from the use of simple statistical measures.

The Temporal Propagation of Intrinsic Brain Activity Associate With the Occurrence of PTSD.

PubMed

Weng, Yifei; Qi, Rongfeng; Chen, Feng; Ke, Jun; Xu, Qiang; Zhong, Yuan; Chen, Lida; Li, Jianjun; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Li; Lu, Guangming

2018-01-01

The abnormal brain activity is a pivotal condition for the occurrence of posttraumatic stress disorder. However, the dynamic time features of intrinsic brain activities still remain unclearly in PTSD patients. Our study aims to perform the resting-state lag analysis (RS-LA) method to explore potential propagated patterns of intrinsic brain activities in PTSD patients. We recruited 27 drug-naive patients with PTSD, 33 trauma-exposed controls (TEC), and 30 demographically matched healthy controls (HC) in the final data statistics. Both RS-LA and conventional voxel-wise functional connectivity strength (FCS) methods were employed on the same dataset. Then, Spearman correlation analysis was conducted on time latency values of those abnormal brain regions with the clinical assessments. Compared with HC group, the time latency patterns of PTSD patients significantly shifted toward later in posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus, middle prefrontal cortex, right angular, and left pre- and post-central cortex. The TEC group tended to have similar time latency in right angular. Additionally, significant time latency in right STG was found in PTSD group relative to TEC group. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that the time latency value of mPFC negatively correlated to the PTSD checklist-civilian version scores (PCL_C) in PTSD group ( r = -0.578, P < 0.05). Furthermore, group differences map of FCS exhibited parts of overlapping areas with that of RS-LA, however, less specificity in detecting PTSD patients. In conclusion, apparent alterations of time latency were observed in DMN and primary sensorimotor areas of PTSD patients. These findings provide us with new evidence to explain the neural pathophysiology contributing to PTSD.

Runoff Response at Three Spatial Scale from a Burned Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, J. A.; Kinner, D. A.

2007-12-01

The hypothesis that the magnitude and timing of runoff from burned watersheds are functions of the properties of flow paths at multiple scales was investigated at three nested spatial scales within an area burned by the 2005 Harvard Fire near Burbank, California. Water depths were measured using pressure sensors: at the outlet of a subwatershed (10000 m2); in 3-inch Parshall flumes near the outlets of three mini-watersheds (820-1780 m2) within the subwatershed; and by 12 overland-flow detectors in 6 micro-watersheds (~11-15 m2) within one of the mini-watersheds. Rainfall intensities were measured using recording raingages deployed around the perimeter of the mini-watersheds and at the subwatershed outlet. Time-to-concentration, TC, and lag time, TL, were computed for the 15 largest of 30 rainstorms (maximum 30- minute intensities were 3.3-13.0 mm/h) between December 2005 and April 2006. TC , elapsed time from the beginning of the rain until the first increase in water depth, averaged 1.0 hours at the micro-scale, 1.7 hours at the mini-scale, and 1.5 hours at the subwatershed scale. TL is the lag time that produced the maximum cross- correlation coefficient between the time series of rainfall intensities and the series of water depths. TL averaged 0.15 hours at the micro-scale, 0.35 hours at the mini-scale, and 0.39 hours at the subwatershed scale. The coefficient was >0.50 for 43% (N=168) of the measurements at the micro-scale, for 61% (N=54) at the mini- scale, and for 67% (N=6) at the subwatershed scale indicating the runoff response lagged but was often well correlated with the time-varying rainfall intensity.

Predicting depressed patients with suicidal ideation from ECG recordings.

PubMed

Khandoker, A H; Luthra, V; Abouallaban, Y; Saha, S; Ahmed, K I; Mostafa, R; Chowdhury, N; Jelinek, H F

2017-05-01

Globally suicidal behavior is the third most common cause of death among patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). This study presents multi-lag tone-entropy (T-E) analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) as a screening tool for identifying MDD patients with suicidal ideation. Sixty-one ECG recordings (10 min) were acquired and analyzed from control subjects (29 CONT), 16 MDD subjects with (MDDSI+) and 16 without suicidal ideation (MDDSI-). After ECG preprocessing, tone and entropy values were calculated for multiple lags (m: 1-10). The MDDSI+ group was found to have a higher mean tone value compared to that of the MDDSI- group for lags 1-8, whereas the mean entropy value was lower in MDDSI+ than that in CONT group at all lags (1-10). Leave-one-out cross-validation tests, using a classification and regression tree (CART), obtained 94.83 % accuracy in predicting MDDSI+ subjects by using a combination of tone and entropy values at all lags and including demographic factors (age, BMI and waist circumference) compared to results with time and frequency domain HRV analysis. The results of this pilot study demonstrate the usefulness of multi-lag T-E analysis in identifying MDD patients with suicidal ideation and highlight the change in autonomic nervous system modulation of the heart rate associated with depression and suicidal ideation.

Theory and practical application of out of sequence measurements with results for multi-static tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iny, David

2007-09-01

This paper addresses the out-of-sequence measurement (OOSM) problem associated with multiple platform tracking systems. The problem arises due to different transmission delays in communication of detection reports across platforms. Much of the literature focuses on the improvement to the state estimate by incorporating the OOSM. As the time lag increases, there is diminishing improvement to the state estimate. However, this paper shows that optimal processing of OOSMs may still be beneficial by improving data association as part of a multi-target tracker. This paper derives exact multi-lag algorithms with the property that the standard log likelihood track scoring is independent of the order in which the measurements are processed. The orthogonality principle is applied to generalize the method of Bar- Shalom in deriving the exact A1 algorithm for 1-lag estimation. Theory is also developed for optimal filtering of time averaged measurements and measurements correlated through periodic updates of a target aim-point. An alternative derivation of the multi-lag algorithms is also achieved using an efficient variant of the augmented state Kalman filter (AS-KF). This results in practical and reasonably efficient multi-lag algorithms. Results are compared to a well known ad hoc algorithm for incorporating OOSMs. Finally, the paper presents some simulated multi-target multi-static scenarios where there is a benefit to processing the data out of sequence in order to improve pruning efficiency.

Long-Lag, Wide-pulse Gamma-Ray Bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, J. P.; Bonnell, J. T.; Kazanas, D.; Scargle, . D.; Hakkila, J.; Giblin, T. W.

2004-01-01

Currently, the best available probe of the early phase of gamma-ray burst (GRB) jet attributes is the prompt gamma-ray emission, in which several intrinsic and extrinsic variables determine GRB pulse evolution. Bright, usually complex bursts have many narrow pulses that are difficult to model due to overlap. However, the relatively simple, long spectral lag, wide-pulse bursts may have simpler physics and are easier to model. In this work we analyze the temporal and spectral behavior of wide pulses in 24 long-lag bursts, using a pulse model with two shape parameters - width and asymmetry - and the Band spectral model with three shape parameters. We find that pulses in long-lag bursts are distinguished both temporally and spectrally from those in bright bursts: the pulses in long spectral lag bursts are few in number, and approximately 100 times wider (10s of seconds), have systematically lower peaks in vF(v), harder low-energy spectra and softer high-energy spectra. We find that these five pulse descriptors are essentially uncorrelated for our long-lag sample, suggesting that at least approximately 5 parameters are needed to model burst temporal and spectral behavior. However, pulse width is strongly correlated with spectral lag; hence these two parameters may be viewed as mutual surrogates. We infer that accurate formulations for estimating GRB luminosity and total energy will depend on several gamma-ray attributes, at least for long-lag bursts. The prevalence of long-lag bursts near the BATSE trigger threshold, their predominantly low vF(v) spectral peaks, and relatively steep upper power-law spectral indices indicate that Swift will detect many such bursts.

Erratum: ``Evidence that a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period'' (ApJ, 589, 665 [2003])

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hathaway, David H.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

2004-02-01

An error was made in entering the data used in Figure 6. This changes the results concerning the length of the time lag between the variations in the meridional flow speed and those in the cycle amplitude. The final paragraph on page 667 should read: ``Finally, we study the relationship between the drift velocities and the amplitudes of the hemisphere/cycles. In Figure 5 we compare the drift velocity at the maximum of the cycle to the amplitude of that cycle for that hemisphere. There is a positive (0.5) and significant (95%) correlation between the two. However, an even stronger relationship is found between the drift velocity and the amplitude of the N+2 cycle. The correlation is stronger (0.7) and more significant (99%), as shown in Figure 6. This relationship is suggestive of a ``memory'' in the solar cycle, again a property of dynamo models that use meridional circulation. Indeed, the two-cycle lag is precisely the relationship found by Charbonneau & Dikpati (ApJ, 589, 665 [2003]). This behavior is, however, more difficult to interpret, and we elaborate on this in the next section. In either case, these correlations only explain part of the variance in cycle amplitude (25% for the current cycle and 50% for the N+2 cycle). Obviously, other mechanisms, such as variations in the gradient in the rotation rate, also contribute to the cycle amplitude variations. Our investigation of possible connections between drift rates and the amplitudes of the N+1 and N+3 cycles gives no significant correlations at these alternative time lags.'' The revised Figure 6 and its caption are given below

SPECTRAL-TIMING ANALYSIS OF THE LOWER kHz QPO IN THE LOW-MASS X-RAY BINARY AQUILA X-1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Troyer, Jon S.; Cackett, Edward M., E-mail: jon.troyer@wayne.edu

2017-01-10

Spectral-timing products of kilohertz quasi-periodic oscillations (kHz QPOs) in low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) systems, including energy- and frequency-dependent lags, have been analyzed previously in 4U 1608-52, 4U 1636-53, and 4U 1728-34. Here, we study the spectral-timing properties of the lower kHz QPO of the neutron star LMXB Aquila X-1 for the first time. We compute broadband energy lags as well as energy-dependent lags and the covariance spectrum using data from the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer . We find characteristics similar to those of previously studied systems, including soft lags of ∼30 μ s between the 3.0–8.0 keV and 8.0–20.0 keVmore » energy bands at the average QPO frequency. We also find lags that show a nearly monotonic trend with energy, with the highest-energy photons arriving first. The covariance spectrum of the lower kHz QPO is well fit by a thermal Comptonization model, though we find a seed photon temperature higher than that of the mean spectrum, which was also seen in Peille et al. and indicates the possibility of a composite boundary layer emitting region. Lastly, we see in one set of observations an Fe K component in the covariance spectrum at 2.4- σ confidence, which may raise questions about the role of reverberation in the production of lags.« less

Large plasma-membrane depolarization precedes rapid blue-light-induced growth inhibition in cucumber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spalding, E. P.; Cosgrove, D. J.

1989-01-01

Blue-light (BL)-induced suppression of elongation of etiolated Cucumis sativus L. hypocotyls began after a 30-s lag time, which was halved by increasing the fluence rate from 10 to 100 micromoles m-2 s-1. Prior to the growth suppression, the plasma-membrane of the irradiated cells depolarized by as much as 100 mV, then returned within 2-3 min to near its initial value. The potential difference measured with surface electrodes changed with an identical time course but opposite polarity. The lag time for the change in surface potential showed an inverse dependence on fluence rate, similar to the lag for the growth inhibition. Green light and red light caused neither the electrical response nor the rapid inhibition of growth. The depolarization by BL did not propagate to nonirradiated regions and exhibited a refractory period of about 10 min following a BL pulse. Fluence-response relationships for the electrical and growth responses provide correlational evidence that the plasma-membrane depolarization reflects an event in the transduction chain of this light-growth response.

Ventricular Repolarization Adaptation to Abrupt Changes in Heart Rate after Microgravity Simulation by 5-Day Head-Down Bed Rest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolea, J.; Almeida, R.; Pueyo, E.; Laguna, P.; Caiani, E. G.

2013-02-01

Microgravity exposure for long periods of time leads to body deconditioning and it increases the risk of experiencing life-threatening arrhythmias. The study of ventricular repolarization dependence on heart rate has been used to stratify patients according to their arrhythmic risk. The QTp adaptation to HR changes is characterized by M90 (90% of the adaptation). The QTp=HR , after compensation for the adaptation lag, is modeled using a set of regression functions (a , kind of slope of relationship). Subjects with lower orthostatic tolerance time showed a non significant decrease in the adaptation lag (M90 from 148 to 108 beats), which may be due to an extra deconditioning in the sympathovagal response. Nevertheless an increase in the QTp=HR adaptation lag (M90 from 108 to 117 beats with a p = 0.06) and a significant reduction in the slope (a from 0.53 to 0.35 with a p < 0.005), which in previous studies have been correlated with an increased arrhytimic risk, were observed for subjects with higher orthostatic tolerance time.

Influence of Permeant Lipophilicity on Permeation Across Human Sclera

PubMed Central

Wen, He; Li, S. Kevin

2010-01-01

Purpose The objectives of this study were to determine the effects of permeant lipophilicity on permeant uptake into and transport across human sclera for transscleral delivery. Methods Model permeants with a wide range of lipophilicities were selected and studied with human sclera. Uptake experiments were carried out to measure permeant partitioning into the sclera. Transport experiments were performed in side-by-side diffusion cells, and the permeability coefficients and transport lag times of the permeants across the sclera were evaluated. Results Permeants with higher lipophilicity showed higher partition coefficients to human sclera, and the apparent transport lag time also increased significantly as the permeant lipophilicity increased. No correlation between the permeability coefficients and lipophilicity of the model permeants was observed in this study with human sclera. A hypothesis on the different findings between the present and previous studies was proposed. Conclusions Permeants with higher lipophilicity exhibited stronger binding to human sclera and would therefore lead to larger permeant partitioning to the sclera and longer transport lag time. The steady-state permeability coefficients of the permeants were not significantly affected by permeant lipophilicity. PMID:20734114

Determination of Relevant Neuron–Neuron Connections for Neural Prosthetics Using Time-Delayed Mutual Information: Tutorial and Preliminary Results

PubMed Central

Taghva, Alexander; Song, Dong; Hampson, Robert E.; Deadwyler, Sam A.; Berger, Theodore W.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Identification of functional dependence among neurons is a necessary component in both the rational design of neural prostheses as well as in the characterization of network physiology. The objective of this article is to provide a tutorial for neurosurgeons regarding information theory, specifically time-delayed mutual information, and to compare time-delayed mutual information, an information theoretic quantity based on statistical dependence, with cross-correlation, a commonly used metric for this task in a preliminary analysis of rat hippocampal neurons. METHODS Spike trains were recorded from rats performing delayed nonmatch-to-sample task using an array of electrodes surgically implanted into the hippocampus of each hemisphere of the brain. In addition, spike train simulations of positively correlated neurons, negatively correlated neurons, and neurons correlated by nonlinear functions were generated. These were evaluated by time-delayed mutual information (MI) and cross-correlation. RESULTS Application of time-delayed MI to experimental data indicated the optimal bin size for information capture in the CA3-CA1 system was 40 ms, which may provide some insight into the spatiotemporal nature of encoding in the rat hippocampus. On simulated data, time-delayed MI showed peak values at appropriate time lags in positively correlated, negatively correlated, and complexly correlated data. Cross-correlation showed peak and troughs with positively correlated and negatively correlated data, but failed to capture some higher order correlations. CONCLUSIONS Comparison of time-delayed MI to cross-correlation in identification of functionally dependent neurons indicates that the methods are not equivalent. Time-delayed MI appeared to capture some interactions between CA3-CA1 neurons at physiologically plausible time delays missed by cross-correlation. It should be considered as a method for identification of functional dependence between neurons and may be useful in the development of neural prosthetics. PMID:22120279

Determination of relevant neuron-neuron connections for neural prosthetics using time-delayed mutual information: tutorial and preliminary results.

PubMed

Taghva, Alexander; Song, Dong; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Berger, Theodore W

2012-12-01

Identification of functional dependence among neurons is a necessary component in both the rational design of neural prostheses as well as in the characterization of network physiology. The objective of this article is to provide a tutorial for neurosurgeons regarding information theory, specifically time-delayed mutual information, and to compare time-delayed mutual information, an information theoretic quantity based on statistical dependence, with cross-correlation, a commonly used metric for this task in a preliminary analysis of rat hippocampal neurons. Spike trains were recorded from rats performing delayed nonmatch-to-sample task using an array of electrodes surgically implanted into the hippocampus of each hemisphere of the brain. In addition, spike train simulations of positively correlated neurons, negatively correlated neurons, and neurons correlated by nonlinear functions were generated. These were evaluated by time-delayed mutual information (MI) and cross-correlation. Application of time-delayed MI to experimental data indicated the optimal bin size for information capture in the CA3-CA1 system was 40 ms, which may provide some insight into the spatiotemporal nature of encoding in the rat hippocampus. On simulated data, time-delayed MI showed peak values at appropriate time lags in positively correlated, negatively correlated, and complexly correlated data. Cross-correlation showed peak and troughs with positively correlated and negatively correlated data, but failed to capture some higher order correlations. Comparison of time-delayed MI to cross-correlation in identification of functionally dependent neurons indicates that the methods are not equivalent. Time-delayed MI appeared to capture some interactions between CA3-CA1 neurons at physiologically plausible time delays missed by cross-correlation. It should be considered as a method for identification of functional dependence between neurons and may be useful in the development of neural prosthetics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictions of Control Inputs, Periodic Responses and Damping Levels of an Isolated Experimental Rotor in Trimmed Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, G. H.; Subramanian, S.

1996-01-01

Since the early 1990s the Aeroflightdynamics Directorate at the Ames Research Center has been conducting tests on isolated hingeless rotors in hover and forward flight. The primary objective is to generate a database on aeroelastic stability in trimmed flight for torsionally soft rotors at realistic tip speeds. The rotor test model has four soft inplane blades of NACA 0012 airfoil section with low torsional stiffness. The collective pitch and shaft tilt are set prior to each test run, and then the rotor is trimmed in the following sense: the longitudinal and lateral cyclic pitch controls are adjusted through a swashplate to minimize the 1/rev flapping moment at the 12 percent radial station. In hover, the database comprises lag regressive-mode damping with pitch variations. In forward flight the database comprises cyclic pitch controls, root flap moment and lag regressive-mode damping with advance ratio, shaft angle and pitch variations. This report presents the predictions and their correlation with the database. A modal analysis is used, in which nonrotating modes in flap bending, lag bending and torsion are computed from the measured blade mass and stiffness distributions. The airfoil aerodynamics is represented by the ONERA dynamic stall models of lift, drag and pitching moment, and the wake dynamics is represented by a state-space wake model. The trim analysis of finding, the cyclic controls and the corresponding, periodic responses is based on periodic shooting with damped Newton iteration; the Floquet transition matrix (FTM) comes out as a byproduct. The stabillty analysis of finding the frequencies and damping levels is based on the eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis of the FTM. All the structural and aerodynamic states are included from modeling to trim analysis. A major finding is that dynamic wake dramatically improves the correlation for the lateral cyclic pitch control. Overall, the correlation is fairly good.

Investigating the Contribution of Climate Variables to Estimates of Net Primary Productivity in a Tropical Ecosystem in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, P.; Behera, M. D.; Behera, S. K.; Sahu, N.

2016-12-01

Investigating the impact of climate variables on net primary productivity is crucial to evaluate the ecosystem health and the status of forest type response to climate change. The objective of this paper is (1) to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of net primary productivity (NPP) in a tropical forest ecosystem situated along the Himalayan foothills in India and (2) to investigate the continuous and delayed effects of climatic variables. Weapplied simple Monteith equation based Light use efficiency model for two dominant plant functional types; sal (Shorea robusta) forest and teak (Tectona grandis) plantation to estimate the NPP for a decadal period from 2001 to 2010. The impact of climate variables on NPP for these 10 years was seen by applying two correlation analyses; generalized linear modelling (GLM) and time lag correlation approach.The impact of different climate variables was observed to vary throughout the study period.A decline in mean NPP during 2002-2003, 2005 and 2008 to 2010 could be attributed to drought, increased vapour pressure deficit, and decreased humidity and solar radiation. In time lag correlation analysis, precipitation and humidity were observed to be the major variables affecting NPP; whereas combination of temperature, humidity and VPD showed dominant effect on NPP in GLM. Shorea robusta forest showed slightly higher NPP than that of Tectona grandis plantation throughout the study period. Highest decrease in NPP was observed during 2010,pertaining to lower solar radiation, humidity and precipitation along with increased VPD.Higher gains in NPP by sal during all years indicates their better adaptability to climate compared to teak. Contribution of different climatic variables through some link process is revealed in statistical analysis clearly indicates the co-dominance of all the variables in explaining NPP. Lacking of site specific meteorological observations and microclimate put constraint on broad level analyses.

An Illustration of a Longitudinal Cross-Lagged Design for Larger Structural Equation Models. Teacher's Corner.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burkholder, Gary J.; Harlow, Lisa L.

2003-01-01

Tested a model of HIV behavior risk, using a fully cross-lagged, longitudinal design to illustrate the analysis of larger structural equation models. Data from 527 women who completed a survey at three time points show excellent fit of the model to the data. (SLD)

Durability of classification and action learning: differences revealed using ex-Gaussian distribution analysis.

PubMed

Moutsopoulou, Karolina; Waszak, Florian

2013-05-01

It has been shown that in associative learning it is possible to disentangle the effects caused on behaviour by the associations between a stimulus and a classification (S-C) and the associations between a stimulus and the action performed towards it (S-A). Such evidence has been provided using ex-Gaussian distribution analysis to show that different parameters of the reaction time distribution reflect the different processes. Here, using this method, we investigate another difference between these two types of associations: What is the relative durability of these associations across time? Using a task-switching paradigm and by manipulating the lag between the point of the creation of the associations and the test phase, we show that S-A associations have stronger effects on behaviour when the lag between the two repetitions of a stimulus is short. However, classification learning affects behaviour not only in short-term lags but also (and equally so) when the lag between prime and probe is long and the same stimuli are repeatedly presented within a different classification task, demonstrating a remarkable durability of S-C associations.

Effect of Helicopter Blade Dynamics on Blade Aerodynamic and Structural Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heffernan, Ruth M.

1987-01-01

The effect of rotor blade dynamics on aerodynamic and structural loads is examined for a conventional, main- rotor helicopter using both a comprehensive rotorcraft analysis (CAMRAD) and night test data. The impact of blade dynamics on blade section lift-coefficient time histories is studied by comparing predictions from both a rigid blade analysis and an elastic blade analysis with helicopter flight test data. The elastic blade analysis better predicts high-frequency behavior of section lift. In addition, components of the blade angle of attack, such as elastic blade twist, blade nap rate, blade slope velocity, and inflow, are examined as a function of blade mode. Elastic blade motion affects the blade angle of attack by a few tenths of a degree, and up to the sixth rotor harmonic. A similar study of the influence of blade dynamics on bending and torsion moments was also conducted. The modal analysis of the predicted blade structural loads suggested that five elastic bending deg of freedom (four flap and one lag) and three elastic torsion deg of freedom contributed to calculations of the blade structural loads. However, when structural bending load predictions from several elastic blade analyses were compared with flight test data, an elastic blade model consisting of only three elastic bending modes (first and second flap, and first lag), and two elastic torsion modes was found to be sufficient for maximum correlation.

The dynamic relationship between social support and HIV-related stigma in rural Uganda.

PubMed

Takada, Sae; Weiser, Sheri D; Kumbakumba, Elias; Muzoora, Conrad; Martin, Jeffrey N; Hunt, Peter W; Haberer, Jessica E; Kawuma, Annet; Bangsberg, David R; Tsai, Alexander C

2014-08-01

Cross-sectional studies show that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) stigma is negatively correlated with social support. The purpose of this study is to examine the bidirectional relationship between social support and HIV stigma. We collected quarterly data from a cohort of 422 people living with HIV in Uganda, followed for a median of 2.1 years. We used multilevel regression to model the contemporaneous and 3-month-lagged associations between social support and both enacted and internalized stigma. Lagged enacted stigma was negatively correlated with emotional and instrumental social support, and lagged instrumental social support was negatively correlated with enacted stigma. Internalized stigma and emotional social support had reciprocal lagged associations. Interventions to reduce enacted stigma may strengthen social support for people living with HIV. Improved social support may in turn have a protective influence against future enacted and internalized stigma.

The Dynamic Relationship Between Social Support and HIV-Related Stigma in Rural Uganda

PubMed Central

Weiser, Sheri D.; Kumbakumba, Elias; Muzoora, Conrad; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Hunt, Peter W.; Haberer, Jessica E.; Kawuma, Annet; Bangsberg, David R.; Tsai, Alexander C.

2014-01-01

Background Cross-sectional studies show that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) stigma is negatively correlated with social support. Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the bidirectional relationship between social support and HIV stigma. Methods We collected quarterly data from a cohort of 422 people living with HIV in Uganda, followed for a median of 2.1 years. We used multilevel regression to model the contemporaneous and 3-month-lagged associations between social support and both enacted and internalized stigma. Results Lagged enacted stigma was negatively correlated with emotional and instrumental social support, and lagged instrumental social support was negatively correlated with enacted stigma. Internalized stigma and emotional social support had reciprocal lagged associations. Conclusions Interventions to reduce enacted stigma may strengthen social support for people living with HIV. Improved social support may in turn have a protective influence against future enacted and internalized stigma. PMID:24500077

Using Google Trends and ambient temperature to predict seasonal influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuzhou; Bambrick, Hilary; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2018-05-16

The discovery of the dynamics of seasonal and non-seasonal influenza outbreaks remains a great challenge. Previous internet-based surveillance studies built purely on internet or climate data do have potential error. We collected influenza notifications, temperature and Google Trends (GT) data between January 1st, 2011 and December 31st, 2016. We performed time-series cross correlation analysis and temporal risk analysis to discover the characteristics of influenza epidemics in the period. Then, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and regression tree model were developed to track influenza epidemics using GT and climate data. Influenza infection was significantly corrected with GT at lag of 1-7 weeks in Brisbane and Gold Coast, and temperature at lag of 1-10 weeks for the two study settings. SARIMA models with GT and temperature data had better predictive performance. We identified autoregression (AR) for influenza was the most important determinant for influenza occurrence in both Brisbane and Gold Coast. Our results suggested internet search metrics in conjunction with temperature can be used to predict influenza outbreaks, which can be considered as a pre-requisite for constructing early warning systems using search and temperature data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-10-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. Here, we are applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantify the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining data sets from several analysers and using simulations, we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time lag eliminates these effects (provided the time lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-03-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. We are here applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantifying the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time-lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time-lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining datasets from several analysers and using simulations we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time-lag eliminates these effects (provided the time-lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time-lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

Theory for Transitions Between Exponential and Stationary Phases: Universal Laws for Lag Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Himeoka, Yusuke; Kaneko, Kunihiko

2017-04-01

The quantitative characterization of bacterial growth has attracted substantial attention since Monod's pioneering study. Theoretical and experimental works have uncovered several laws for describing the exponential growth phase, in which the number of cells grows exponentially. However, microorganism growth also exhibits lag, stationary, and death phases under starvation conditions, in which cell growth is highly suppressed, for which quantitative laws or theories are markedly underdeveloped. In fact, the models commonly adopted for the exponential phase that consist of autocatalytic chemical components, including ribosomes, can only show exponential growth or decay in a population; thus, phases that halt growth are not realized. Here, we propose a simple, coarse-grained cell model that includes an extra class of macromolecular components in addition to the autocatalytic active components that facilitate cellular growth. These extra components form a complex with the active components to inhibit the catalytic process. Depending on the nutrient condition, the model exhibits typical transitions among the lag, exponential, stationary, and death phases. Furthermore, the lag time needed for growth recovery after starvation follows the square root of the starvation time and is inversely related to the maximal growth rate. This is in agreement with experimental observations, in which the length of time of cell starvation is memorized in the slow accumulation of molecules. Moreover, the lag time distributed among cells is skewed with a long time tail. If the starvation time is longer, an exponential tail appears, which is also consistent with experimental data. Our theory further predicts a strong dependence of lag time on the speed of substrate depletion, which can be tested experimentally. The present model and theoretical analysis provide universal growth laws beyond the exponential phase, offering insight into how cells halt growth without entering the death phase.

An investigation of the lag between the start of research and the development of new technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, S. E.

1982-01-01

The lag which occurs between the start of NASA-sponsored research and the development of new technology is addressed. A possible common gestation period is examined. The lags vary from one to zero years. The observed lag as it relates to patent applications is shorter than the lag as it relates to invention disclosures. The sequential hypothesis testing showed that invention disclosures correlated better to the measures of research effort used then did patent applications.

The Impact of Climatological Variables on Kelp Canopy Area in the Santa Barbara Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zigner, K.; Bausell, J.; Kudela, R. M.

2015-12-01

Kelp canopy area (KCA), a proxy for kelp forest health, has important implications for small and large-scale processes pertaining to fisheries, near shore currents, and marine ecosystems. As part of the NASA Airborne Science Research Program (SARP), this study examines the impact of ocean chemistry and climatological variables on KCA in the Santa Barbara Channel through time series analysis. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and upwelling indices as well as sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, nitrate, and chlorophyll-a concentrations taken within the Santa Barbara channel (1990-2014) were acquired from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI), and Di Lorenzo's NPGO websites. These data were then averaged for winter (November-January) and summer (May-August) seasons and compared to KCA measurements derived from Landsat images via unsupervised classification. Regression, cumulative sum tests, and cross-correlation coefficients revealed a two year lag between KCA and the NPGO, indicating the presence of an additional factor driving both variables. Further analyses suggests that the NPO may be this driving factor, as indicated by the correlation (lag 0) with KCA. Comparing relationships between kelp and other variables over various time periods supports the acceleration of the NPGO and other variables in more recent years. Exploring relationships between KCA, NPGO, and NPO may provide insight into potential impacts of climate change on coastal marine ecosystems.

Southern Right Whale (Eubalaena australis) Reproductive Success is Influenced by Krill (Euphausia superba) Density and Climate.

PubMed

Seyboth, Elisa; Groch, Karina R; Dalla Rosa, Luciano; Reid, Keith; Flores, Paulo A C; Secchi, Eduardo R

2016-06-16

The reproductive success of southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) depends on body condition and, therefore, on foraging success. This, in turn, might be affected by climatically driven change in the abundance of the species main prey, krill (Euphausia superba), on the feeding grounds. Annual data on southern right whale number of calves were obtained from aerial surveys carried out between 1997 and 2013 in southern Brazil, where the species concentrate during their breeding season. The number of calves recorded each year varied from 7 to 43 ( = 21.11 ± 11.88). Using cross-correlation analysis we examined the response of the species to climate anomalies and krill densities. Significant correlations were found with krill densities (r = 0.69, p = 0.002, lag 0 years), Oceanic Niño Index (r = -0.65, p = 0.03, lag 6 years), Antarctic Oscillation (r = 0.76, p = 0.01, lag 7 years) and Antarctic sea ice area (r = -0.68, p = 0.002, lag 0 years). Our results suggest that global climate indices influence southern right whale breeding success in southern Brazil by determining variation in food (krill) availability for the species. Therefore, increased frequency of years with reduced krill abundance, due to global warming, is likely to reduce the current rate of recovery of southern right whales from historical overexploitation.

Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Steven T.; Wearing, Helen J.; Reiner, Robert C.; Morrison, Amy C.; Astete, Helvio; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Alvarez, Carlos; Ramal-Asayag, Cesar; Sihuincha, Moises; Rocha, Claudio; Halsey, Eric S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Kochel, Tadeusz J.; Forshey, Brett M.

2014-01-01

Introduction Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data. Methods We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases. Findings Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season. Conclusions Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos. PMID:25033412

Improving models of democracy: the example of lagged effects of economic development, education, and gender equality.

PubMed

Balaev, Mikhail

2014-07-01

The author examines how time delayed effects of economic development, education, and gender equality influence political democracy. Literature review shows inadequate understanding of lagged effects, which raises methodological and theoretical issues with the current quantitative studies of democracy. Using country-years as a unit of analysis, the author estimates a series of OLS PCSE models for each predictor with a systematic analysis of the distributions of the lagged effects. The second set of multiple OLS PCSE regressions are estimated including all three independent variables. The results show that economic development, education, and gender have three unique trajectories of the time-delayed effects: Economic development has long-term effects, education produces continuous effects regardless of the timing, and gender equality has the most prominent immediate and short term effects. The results call for the reassessment of model specifications and theoretical setups in the quantitative studies of democracy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A way around the Nyquist lag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penland, C.

2017-12-01

One way to test for the linearity of a multivariate system is to perform Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) to a multivariate time series. LIM yields an estimated operator by combining a lagged covariance matrix with the contemporaneous covariance matrix. If the underlying dynamics is linear, the resulting dynamical description should not depend on the particular lag at which the lagged covariance matrix is estimated. This test is known as the "tau test." The tau test will be severely compromised if the lag at which the analysis is performed is approximately half the period of an internal oscillation frequency. In this case, the tau test will fail even though the dynamics are actually linear. Thus, until now, the tau test has only been possible for lags smaller than this "Nyquist lag." In this poster, we investigate the use of Hilbert transforms as a way to avoid the problems associated with Nyquist lags. By augmenting the data with dimensions orthogonal to those spanning the original system, information that would be inaccessible to LIM in its original form may be sampled.

From neurons to circuits: linear estimation of local field potentials.

PubMed

Rasch, Malte; Logothetis, Nikos K; Kreiman, Gabriel

2009-11-04

Extracellular physiological recordings are typically separated into two frequency bands: local field potentials (LFPs) (a circuit property) and spiking multiunit activity (MUA). Recently, there has been increased interest in LFPs because of their correlation with functional magnetic resonance imaging blood oxygenation level-dependent measurements and the possibility of studying local processing and neuronal synchrony. To further understand the biophysical origin of LFPs, we asked whether it is possible to estimate their time course based on the spiking activity from the same electrode or nearby electrodes. We used "signal estimation theory" to show that a linear filter operation on the activity of one or a few neurons can explain a significant fraction of the LFP time course in the macaque monkey primary visual cortex. The linear filter used to estimate the LFPs had a stereotypical shape characterized by a sharp downstroke at negative time lags and a slower positive upstroke for positive time lags. The filter was similar across different neocortical regions and behavioral conditions, including spontaneous activity and visual stimulation. The estimations had a spatial resolution of approximately 1 mm and a temporal resolution of approximately 200 ms. By considering a causal filter, we observed a temporal asymmetry such that the positive time lags in the filter contributed more to the LFP estimation than the negative time lags. Additionally, we showed that spikes occurring within approximately 10 ms of spikes from nearby neurons yielded better estimation accuracies than nonsynchronous spikes. In summary, our results suggest that at least some circuit-level local properties of the field potentials can be predicted from the activity of one or a few neurons.

From neurons to circuits: linear estimation of local field potentials

PubMed Central

Rasch, Malte; Logthetis, Nikos K.; Kreiman, Gabriel

2010-01-01

Extracellular physiological recordings are typically separated into two frequency bands: local field potentials (LFPs, a circuit property) and spiking multi-unit activity (MUA). There has been increased interest in LFPs due to their correlation with fMRI measurements and the possibility of studying local processing and neuronal synchrony. To further understand the biophysical origin of LFPs, we asked whether it is possible to estimate their time course based on the spiking activity from the same or nearby electrodes. We used Signal Estimation Theory to show that a linear filter operation on the activity of one/few neurons can explain a significant fraction of the LFP time course in the macaque primary visual cortex. The linear filter used to estimate the LFPs had a stereotypical shape characterized by a sharp downstroke at negative time lags and a slower positive upstroke for positve time lags. The filter was similar across neocortical regions and behavioral conditions including spontaneous activity and visual stimulation. The estimations had a spatial resolution of ~1 mm and a temporal resolution of ~200 ms. By considering a causal filter, we observed a temporal asymmetry such that the positive time lags in the filter contributed more to the LFP estimation than negative time lags. Additionally, we showed that spikes occurring within ~10 ms of spikes from nearby neurons yielded better estimation accuracies than nonsynchronous spikes. In sum, our results suggest that at least some circuit-level local properties of the field potentials can be predicted from the activity of one or a few neurons. PMID:19889990

Does the Finger-to-Nose Test measure upper limb coordination in chronic stroke?

PubMed

Rodrigues, Marcos R M; Slimovitch, Matthew; Chilingaryan, Gevorg; Levin, Mindy F

2017-01-23

We aimed to kinematically validate that the time to perform the Finger-to-Nose Test (FNT) assesses coordination by determining its construct, convergent and discriminant validity. Experimental, criterion standard study. Both clinical and experimental evaluations were done at a research facility in a rehabilitation hospital. Forty individuals (20 individuals with chronic stroke and 20 healthy, age- and gender-matched individuals) participated.. Both groups performed two blocks of 10 to-and-fro pointing movements (non-dominant/affected arm) between a sagittal target and the nose (ReachIn, ReachOut) at a self-paced speed. Time to perform the test was the main outcome. Kinematics (Optotrak, 100Hz) and clinical impairment/activity levels were evaluated. Spatiotemporal coordination was assessed with slope (IJC) and cross-correlation (LAG) between elbow and shoulder movements. Compared to controls, individuals with stroke (Fugl-Meyer Assessment, FMA-UE: 51.9 ± 13.2; Box & Blocks, BBT: 72.1 ± 26.9%) made more curved endpoint trajectories using less shoulder horizontal-abduction. For construct validity, shoulder range (β = 0.127), LAG (β = 0.855) and IJC (β = -0.191) explained 82% of FNT-time variance for ReachIn and LAG (β = 0.971) explained 94% for ReachOut in patients with stroke. In contrast, only LAG explained 62% (β = 0.790) and 79% (β = 0.889) of variance for ReachIn and ReachOut respectively in controls. For convergent validity, FNT-time correlated with FMA-UE (r = -0.67, p < 0.01), FMA-Arm (r = -0.60, p = 0.005), biceps spasticity (r = 0.39, p < 0.05) and BBT (r = -0.56, p < 0.01). A cut-off time of 10.6 s discriminated between mild and moderate-to-severe impairment (discriminant validity). Each additional second represented 42% odds increase of greater impairment. For this version of the FNT, the time to perform the test showed construct, convergent and discriminant validity to measure UL coordination in stroke.

Scintillation measurements at Bahir Dar during the high solar activity phase of solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kriegel, Martin; Jakowski, Norbert; Berdermann, Jens; Sato, Hiroatsu; Wassaie Mersha, Mogese

2017-01-01

Small-scale ionospheric disturbances may cause severe radio scintillations of signals transmitted from global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs). Consequently, small-scale plasma irregularities may heavily degrade the performance of current GNSSs such as GPS, GLONASS or Galileo. This paper presents analysis results obtained primarily from two high-rate GNSS receiver stations designed and operated by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in cooperation with Bahir Dar University (BDU) at 11.6° N, 37.4° E. Both receivers collect raw data sampled at up to 50 Hz, from which characteristic scintillation parameters such as the S4 index are deduced. This paper gives a first overview of the measurement set-up and the observed scintillation events over Bahir Dar in 2015. Both stations are located close to one another and aligned in an east-west, direction which allows us to estimate the zonal drift velocity and spatial dimension of equatorial ionospheric plasma irregularities. Therefore, the lag times of moving electron density irregularities and scintillation patterns are derived by applying cross-correlation analysis to high-rate measurements of the slant total electron content (sTEC) along radio links between a GPS satellite and both receivers and to the associated signal power, respectively. Finally, the drift velocity is derived from the estimated lag time, taking into account the geometric constellation of both receiving antennas and the observed GPS satellites.

Modelling the effect of essential oil of betel leaf (Piper betle L.) on germination, growth, and apparent lag time of Penicillium expansum on semi-synthetic media.

PubMed

Basak, Suradeep; Guha, Proshanta

2015-12-23

The current study aimed at characterizing the chemical components of betel leaf (Piper betle L. var. Tamluk Mitha) essential oil (BLEO) and modelling its effect on growth of Penicillium expansum on semi-synthetic medium. Gas chromatography-mass spectrophotometry (GC-MS) analysis of BLEO revealed the presence of different bioactive phenolic compounds in significant amounts. Among 46 different components identified, chavibetol (22.0%), estragole (15.8%), β-cubebene (13.6%), chavicol (11.8%), and caryophyllene (11.3%) were found to be the major compounds of BLEO. A disc diffusion and disc volatilization method were used to evaluate antifungal activity of the oil against a selected food spoilage mould. The logistic model was used to study the kinetics of spore germination. Prediction and validation of antifungal effect of BLEO was performed on semi-synthetic medium (apple juice agar) using predictive microbiological tools. The Baranyi and Roberts model was used to estimate maximum growth rate (μmax in mm/day) and apparent lag time (λ in days) of the mould. Secondary modelling was performed using a re-parameterized Monod-type equation based on cardinal values to study the effect of different BLEO concentration on estimated growth parameters. Emax (minimum concentration of oil at which mould growth was inhibited) and MIC (minimum inhibitory concentration of BLEO at which lag time is infinite) value of BLEO against P. expansum was estimated to be 0.56 and 0.74 μl/ml, respectively, which was found to be similar on potato dextrose agar (PDA) as well as apple juice agar (AJA) medium. The correlation between estimated growth parameters of the mould on both the media was obtained with satisfactory statistical indices (R(2) and RMSE). This study revealed inhibitory efficacy of BLEO on spore germination, mycelial growth and apparent lag time of P. expansum in a dose-dependent manner. Hence, BLEO has potential to be used as a natural food preservative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ANALYSES OF RESPONSE–STIMULUS SEQUENCES IN DESCRIPTIVE OBSERVATIONS

PubMed Central

Samaha, Andrew L; Vollmer, Timothy R; Borrero, Carrie; Sloman, Kimberly; Pipkin, Claire St. Peter; Bourret, Jason

2009-01-01

Descriptive observations were conducted to record problem behavior displayed by participants and to record antecedents and consequences delivered by caregivers. Next, functional analyses were conducted to identify reinforcers for problem behavior. Then, using data from the descriptive observations, lag-sequential analyses were conducted to examine changes in the probability of environmental events across time in relation to occurrences of problem behavior. The results of the lag-sequential analyses were interpreted in light of the results of functional analyses. Results suggested that events identified as reinforcers in a functional analysis followed behavior in idiosyncratic ways: after a range of delays and frequencies. Thus, it is possible that naturally occurring reinforcement contingencies are arranged in ways different from those typically evaluated in applied research. Further, these complex response–stimulus relations can be represented by lag-sequential analyses. However, limitations to the lag-sequential analysis are evident. PMID:19949537

Long-term forecasting of meteorological time series using Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldesellasse, H. T.; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T.

2016-12-01

Wind is one of the crucial renewable energy sources which is expected to bring solutions to the challenges of clean energy and the global issue of climate change. A number of linear and nonlinear multivariate techniques has been used to predict the stochastic character of wind speed. A wind forecast with good accuracy has a positive impact on the reduction of electricity system cost and is essential for the effective grid management. Over the past years, few studies have been done on the assessment of teleconnections and its possible effects on the long-term wind speed variability in the UAE region. In this study Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA) method is applied to study the relationship between global climate oscillation indices and meteorological variables, with a major emphasis on wind speed and wind direction, of Abu Dhabi, UAE. The wind dataset was obtained from six ground stations. The first mode of NLCCA is capable of capturing the nonlinear mode of the climate indices at different seasons, showing the symmetry between the warm states and the cool states. The strength of the nonlinear canonical correlation between the two sets of variables varies with the lead/lag time. The performance of the models is assessed by calculating error indices such as the root mean square error (RMSE) and Mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicated that NLCCA models provide more accurate information about the nonlinear intrinsic behaviour of the dataset of variables than linear CCA model in terms of the correlation and root mean square error. Key words: Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA), Canonical Correlation Analysis, Neural Network, Climate Indices, wind speed, wind direction

Carbon-dioxide emissions trading and hierarchical structure in worldwide finance and commodities markets.

PubMed

Zheng, Zeyu; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Tenenbaum, Joel N; Stanley, H Eugene

2013-01-01

In a highly interdependent economic world, the nature of relationships between financial entities is becoming an increasingly important area of study. Recently, many studies have shown the usefulness of minimal spanning trees (MST) in extracting interactions between financial entities. Here, we propose a modified MST network whose metric distance is defined in terms of cross-correlation coefficient absolute values, enabling the connections between anticorrelated entities to manifest properly. We investigate 69 daily time series, comprising three types of financial assets: 28 stock market indicators, 21 currency futures, and 20 commodity futures. We show that though the resulting MST network evolves over time, the financial assets of similar type tend to have connections which are stable over time. In addition, we find a characteristic time lag between the volatility time series of the stock market indicators and those of the EU CO(2) emission allowance (EUA) and crude oil futures (WTI). This time lag is given by the peak of the cross-correlation function of the volatility time series EUA (or WTI) with that of the stock market indicators, and is markedly different (>20 days) from 0, showing that the volatility of stock market indicators today can predict the volatility of EU emissions allowances and of crude oil in the near future.

Carbon-dioxide emissions trading and hierarchical structure in worldwide finance and commodities markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zeyu; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Tenenbaum, Joel N.; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-01-01

In a highly interdependent economic world, the nature of relationships between financial entities is becoming an increasingly important area of study. Recently, many studies have shown the usefulness of minimal spanning trees (MST) in extracting interactions between financial entities. Here, we propose a modified MST network whose metric distance is defined in terms of cross-correlation coefficient absolute values, enabling the connections between anticorrelated entities to manifest properly. We investigate 69 daily time series, comprising three types of financial assets: 28 stock market indicators, 21 currency futures, and 20 commodity futures. We show that though the resulting MST network evolves over time, the financial assets of similar type tend to have connections which are stable over time. In addition, we find a characteristic time lag between the volatility time series of the stock market indicators and those of the EU CO2 emission allowance (EUA) and crude oil futures (WTI). This time lag is given by the peak of the cross-correlation function of the volatility time series EUA (or WTI) with that of the stock market indicators, and is markedly different (>20 days) from 0, showing that the volatility of stock market indicators today can predict the volatility of EU emissions allowances and of crude oil in the near future.

Cross-correlation and cross-wavelet analyses of the solar wind IMF Bz and auroral electrojet index AE coupling during HILDCAAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques de Souza, Adriane; Echer, Ezequiel; José Alves Bolzan, Mauricio; Hajra, Rajkumar

2018-02-01

Solar-wind-geomagnetic activity coupling during high-intensity long-duration continuous AE (auroral electrojet) activities (HILDCAAs) is investigated in this work. The 1 min AE index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component in the geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinate system were used in this study. We have considered HILDCAA events occurring between 1995 and 2011. Cross-wavelet and cross-correlation analyses results show that the coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere during HILDCAAs occurs mainly in the period ≤ 8 h. These periods are similar to the periods observed in the interplanetary Alfvén waves embedded in the high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). This result is consistent with the fact that most of the HILDCAA events under present study are related to HSSs. Furthermore, the classical correlation analysis indicates that the correlation between IMF Bz and AE may be classified as moderate (0.4-0.7) and that more than 80 % of the HILDCAAs exhibit a lag of 20-30 min between IMF Bz and AE. This result corroborates with Tsurutani et al. (1990) where the lag was found to be close to 20-25 min. These results enable us to conclude that the main mechanism for solar-wind-magnetosphere coupling during HILDCAAs is the magnetic reconnection between the fluctuating, negative component of IMF Bz and Earth's magnetopause fields at periods lower than 8 h and with a lag of about 20-30 min.

Correlation between hospital-level antibiotic consumption and incident health care facility-onset Clostridium difficile infection.

PubMed

Crew, Page E; Rhodes, Nathaniel J; O'Donnell, J Nicholas; Miglis, Cristina; Gilbert, Elise M; Zembower, Teresa R; Qi, Chao; Silkaitis, Christina; Sutton, Sarah H; Scheetz, Marc H

2018-03-01

The purpose of this single-center, ecologic study is to characterize the relationship between facility-wide (FacWide) antibiotic consumption and incident health care facility-onset Clostridium difficile infection (HO-CDI). FacWide antibiotic consumption and incident HO-CDI were tallied on a monthly basis and standardized, from January 2013 through April 2015. Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients were calculated using matched-months analysis and a 1-month delay. Regression analyses were performed, with P < .05 considered statistically significant. FacWide analysis identified a matched-months correlation between ceftriaxone and HO-CDI (ρ = 0.44, P = .018). A unit of stem cell transplant recipients did not have significant correlation between carbapenems and HO-CDI in matched months (ρ = 0.37, P = .098), but a significant correlation was observed when a 1-month lag was applied (ρ = 0.54, P = .014). Three statistically significant lag associations were observed between FacWide/unit-level antibiotic consumption and HO-CDI, and 1 statistically significant nonlagged association was observed FacWide. Antibiotic consumption may convey extended ward-level risk for incident CDI. Consumption of antibiotic agents may have immediate and prolonged influence on incident CDI. Additional studies are needed to investigate the immediate and delayed associations between antibiotic consumption and C difficile colonization, infection, and transmission at the hospital level. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Effects of ischemic stroke on dynamics of cerebral autoregulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhi; Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Hu, Kun; Stanley, Eugene; Novak, Vera

2004-03-01

Cerebral vasoregulation involves several complex mechanisms adapting blood flow to fluctuations of systemic blood pressure (BP). Autonomic BP and metabolic vasoregulation are impaired after stroke and cerebral blood flow depends on systemic BP. To probe the mechanisms of cerebral autoregulation we study levels of nonlinear synchronization between cerebral blood flow velocity (BFV) and peripheral BP. We quantify the instantaneous phase of each signal employing analytic signal approach and Hilbert transform. As a marker of synchronization, we introduce a measure of cross-correlation between the instantaneous phase increments of the BFV and BP signals at different time lags. We have studied 12 subjects with minor chronic ischemic stroke and 11 matched normotensive controls (age<65years). BFV and BP of these subjects are continuously recorded during supine baseline, head-up tilt, hyperventilation and CO2 rebreathing. For control subjects we find significant synchronization between cerebral BFV and peripheral BP only for short time lags of up to 5-6 seconds, suggesting a rapid return to a steady cerebral blood flow after initial blood pressure perturbations. In contrast, for stroke subjects BFV/BP we find enhanced synchronization over longer time lags of up to 20 seconds, suggesting entrainment of cerebral blood flow velocity by slow vasomotor rhythms. These findings suggest that cerebral vasoregulation is impaired and cerebral blood flow follows the fluctuations of systemic BP in a synchronous manner. Our analysis shows that cerebral autoregulation is impaired in 10 out of the 12 stroke subjects, which is typically difficult to diagnose with conventional methods. Thus, our novel synchronization approach offers a new tool sensitive for evaluation of changes in the dynamics of cerebral autoregulation under stroke.

TEMPORAL VARIABILITY FROM THE TWO-COMPONENT ADVECTIVE FLOW SOLUTION AND ITS OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dutta, Broja G.; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.

2016-09-10

In the propagating oscillatory shock model, the oscillation of the post-shock region, i.e., the Compton cloud, causes the observed low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). The evolution of QPO frequency is explained by the systematic variation of the Compton cloud size, i.e., the steady radial movement of the shock front, which is triggered by the cooling of the post-shock region. Thus, analysis of the energy-dependent temporal properties in different variability timescales can diagnose the dynamics and geometry of accretion flows around black holes. We study these properties for the high-inclination black hole source XTE J1550-564 during its 1998 outburst and the low-inclinationmore » black hole source GX 339-4 during its 2006–07 outburst using RXTE /PCA data, and we find that they can satisfactorily explain the time lags associated with the QPOs from these systems. We find a smooth decrease of the time lag as a function of time in the rising phase of both sources. In the declining phase, the time lag increases with time. We find a systematic evolution of QPO frequency and hard lags in these outbursts. In XTE J1550-564, the lag changes from hard to soft (i.e., from a positive to a negative value) at a crossing frequency (ν {sub c}) of ∼3.4 Hz. We present possible mechanisms to explain the lag behavior of high and low-inclination sources within the framework of a single two-component advective flow model.« less

Effects of repeated snowboard exercise in virtual reality with time lags of visual scene behind body rotation on head stability and subjective slalom run performance in healthy young subjects.

PubMed

Wada, Yoshiro; Nishiike, Suetaka; Kitahara, Tadashi; Yamanaka, Toshiaki; Imai, Takao; Ito, Taeko; Sato, Go; Matsuda, Kazunori; Kitamura, Yoshiaki; Takeda, Noriaki

2016-11-01

After repeated snowboard exercises in the virtual reality (VR) world with increasing time lags in trials 3-8, it is suggested that the adaptation to repeated visual-vestibulosomatosensory conflict in the VR world improved dynamic posture control and motor performance in the real world without the development of motion sickness. The VR technology was used and the effects of repeated snowboard exercise examined in the VR world with time lags between visual scene and body rotation on the head stability and slalom run performance during exercise in healthy subjects. Forty-two healthy young subjects participated in the study. After trials 1 and 2 of snowboard exercise in the VR world without time lag, trials 3-8 were conducted with 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 s time lags of the visual scene that the computer creates behind board rotation, respectively. Finally, trial 9 was conducted without time lag. Head linear accelerations and subjective slalom run performance were evaluated. The standard deviations of head linear accelerations in inter-aural direction were significantly increased in trial 8, with a time lag of 0.6 s, but significantly decreased in trial 9 without a time lag, compared with those in trial 2 without a time lag. The subjective scores of slalom run performance were significantly decreased in trial 8, with a time lag of 0.6 s, but significantly increased in trial 9 without a time lag, compared with those in trial 2 without a time lag. Motion sickness was not induced in any subjects.

Analysis and IbM simulation of the stages in bacterial lag phase: basis for an updated definition.

PubMed

Prats, Clara; Giró, Antoni; Ferrer, Jordi; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

2008-05-07

The lag phase is the initial phase of a culture that precedes exponential growth and occurs when the conditions of the culture medium differ from the pre-inoculation conditions. It is usually defined by means of cell density because the number of individuals remains approximately constant or slowly increases, and it is quantified with the lag parameter lambda. The lag phase has been studied through mathematical modelling and by means of specific experiments. In recent years, Individual-based Modelling (IbM) has provided helpful insights into lag phase studies. In this paper, the definition of lag phase is thoroughly examined. Evolution of the total biomass and the total number of bacteria during lag phase is tackled separately. The lag phase lasts until the culture reaches a maximum growth rate both in biomass and cell density. Once in the exponential phase, both rates are constant over time and equal to each other. Both evolutions are split into an initial phase and a transition phase, according to their growth rates. A population-level mathematical model is presented to describe the transitional phase in cell density. INDividual DIScrete SIMulation (INDISIM) is used to check the outcomes of this analysis. Simulations allow the separate study of the evolution of cell density and total biomass in a batch culture, they provide a depiction of different observed cases in lag evolution at the individual-cell level, and are used to test the population-level model. The results show that the geometrical lag parameter lambda is not appropriate as a universal definition for the lag phase. Moreover, the lag phase cannot be characterized by a single parameter. For the studied cases, the lag phases of both the total biomass and the population are required to fully characterize the evolution of bacterial cultures. The results presented prove once more that the lag phase is a complex process that requires a more complete definition. This will be possible only after the phenomena governing the population dynamics at an individual level of description, and occurring during the lag and exponential growth phases, are well understood.

Effect of helicopter blade dynamics on blade aerodynamic and structural loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heffernan, Ruth M.

1987-01-01

The effect of rotor blade dynamics on aerodynamic and structural loads is examined for a conventional, main-rotor helicopter using a comprehensive rotorcraft analysis (CAMRAD) and flight-test data. The impact of blade dynamics on blade section lift-coefficient time histories is studied by comparing predictions from a rigid-blade analysis and an elastic-blade analysis with helicopter flight test data. The elastic blade analysis better predicts high-frequency behavior of section lift. In addition, components of the blade angle of attack such as elastic blade twist, blade flap rate, blade slope velocity, and inflow are examined as a function of blade mode. Elastic blade motion changed blade angle of attack by a few tenths of a degree, and up to the sixth rotor harmonic. A similar study of the influence of blade dynamics on bending and torsion moments was also conducted. A correlation study comparing predictions from several elastic-blade analyses with flight-test data revealed that an elastic-blade model consisting of only three elastic bending modes (first and second flap and first lag), and two elastic torsion modes was sufficient for good correlation.

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts.

PubMed

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T

2016-11-18

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of "correlation structure persistence" on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a "metacorrelation" that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility.

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2016-11-01

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of “correlation structure persistence” on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a “metacorrelation” that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility.

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts

PubMed Central

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2016-01-01

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of “correlation structure persistence” on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a “metacorrelation” that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility. PMID:27857144

Zero-lag synchronization in coupled time-delayed piecewise linear electronic circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh, R.; Srinivasan, K.; Senthilkumar, D. V.; Raja Mohamed, I.; Murali, K.; Lakshmanan, M.; Kurths, J.

2013-07-01

We investigate and report an experimental confirmation of zero-lag synchronization (ZLS) in a system of three coupled time-delayed piecewise linear electronic circuits via dynamical relaying with different coupling configurations, namely mutual and subsystem coupling configurations. We have observed that when there is a feedback between the central unit (relay unit) and at least one of the outer units, ZLS occurs in the two outer units whereas the central and outer units exhibit inverse phase synchronization (IPS). We find that in the case of mutual coupling configuration ZLS occurs both in periodic and hyperchaotic regimes, while in the subsystem coupling configuration it occurs only in the hyperchaotic regime. Snapshots of the time evolution of outer circuits as observed from the oscilloscope confirm the occurrence of ZLS experimentally. The quality of ZLS is numerically verified by correlation coefficient and similarity function measures. Further, the transition to ZLS is verified from the changes in the largest Lyapunov exponents and the correlation coefficient as a function of the coupling strength. IPS is experimentally confirmed using time series plots and also can be visualized using the concept of localized sets which are also corroborated by numerical simulations. In addition, we have calculated the correlation of probability of recurrence to quantify the phase coherence. We have also analytically derived a sufficient condition for the stability of ZLS using the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory.

Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Botai, Joel O.; Rautenbach, Hannes; Ncongwane, Katlego P.; Botai, Christina M.

2017-01-01

The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease’s transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998–2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables’ and malaria cases’ time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature (R2 = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in malaria cases. The model gives a close comparison between the predicted and observed number of malaria cases, hence indicating that the model provides an acceptable fit to predict the number of malaria cases in the municipality. To sum up, the association between the climatic variables and malaria cases provides clues to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission. The lagged effect detected in this study can help in adequate planning for malaria intervention. PMID:29117114

Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis.

PubMed

Adeola, Abiodun M; Botai, Joel O; Rautenbach, Hannes; Adisa, Omolola M; Ncongwane, Katlego P; Botai, Christina M; Adebayo-Ojo, Temitope C

2017-11-08

The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease's transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998-2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables' and malaria cases' time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature ( R ² = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in malaria cases. The model gives a close comparison between the predicted and observed number of malaria cases, hence indicating that the model provides an acceptable fit to predict the number of malaria cases in the municipality. To sum up, the association between the climatic variables and malaria cases provides clues to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission. The lagged effect detected in this study can help in adequate planning for malaria intervention.

Dissecting ion-specific from electrostatic salt effects on amyloid fibrillation: A case study of insulin.

PubMed

Kutsch, Miriam; Hortmann, Pascal; Herrmann, Christian; Weibels, Sebastian; Weingärtner, Hermann

2016-03-03

Diseases like Alzheimer, type II diabetes mellitus, and others go back to fibril formation of partially unfolded proteins. The impact of sodium, potassium, choline, guanidinium, and 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride on the fibrillation kinetics of insulin in an acid-denaturing solvent environment is studied by fluorescence spectroscopy using thioflavin T as a fibril-specific stain. The fibrillation kinetics reveal a sigmoidal behavior, characterized by the lag time τlag and the maximum elongation rate k of the fibrils. Up to ionic strengths of about 70 mM, the elongation rate increases with salt concentration. This increase is nonspecific with regard to the salts. Below ionic strengths of ∼50 mM, it can be explained by a Debye-Hückel type model, indicating a dominant role of Coulomb interactions between the charged reactants and products screened by the ionic environment. At higher ionic strength, the elongation rates pass maxima, followed by a Hofmeister type ion-specific decrease. There is a correlation between the lag time τlag and the inverse elongation rate k, which can be described by a power law of the form τlag ∝  aτ(α) with a sublinear exponent α ≅ 1/2.

Lag and seasonality considerations in evaluating AVHRR NDVI response to precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, Lei; Peters, Albert J.

2005-01-01

Assessment of the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation is important in understanding vegetation and climate interaction at a large scale. NDVI response to precipitation, however, is difficult to quantify due to the lag and seasonality effects, which will vary due to vegetation cover type, soils and climate. A time series analysis was performed on biweekly NDVI and precipitation around weather stations in the northern and central U.S. Great Plains. Regression models that incorporate lag and seasonality effects were used to quantify the relationship between NDVI and lagged precipitation in grasslands and croplands. It was found that the time lag was shorter in the early growing season, but longer in the mid- to late-growing season for most locations. The regression models with seasonal adjustment indicate that the relationship between NDVI and precipitation over the entire growing season was strong, with R2 values of 0.69 and 0.72 for grasslands and croplands, respectively. We conclude that vegetation greenness can be predicted using current and antecedent precipitation, if seasonal effects are taken into account.

Lag Times and Peak Coefficients for Rural Watersheds in Kansas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

Lag time is an essential input to the most common synthetic unit-hydrograph models. The lag time for an ungaged stream must be estimated from the physical characteristics of the stream and its watershed. In this study, a lag-time formula for small ru...

The Temporal Propagation of Intrinsic Brain Activity Associate With the Occurrence of PTSD

PubMed Central

Weng, Yifei; Qi, Rongfeng; Chen, Feng; Ke, Jun; Xu, Qiang; Zhong, Yuan; Chen, Lida; Li, Jianjun; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Li; Lu, Guangming

2018-01-01

The abnormal brain activity is a pivotal condition for the occurrence of posttraumatic stress disorder. However, the dynamic time features of intrinsic brain activities still remain unclearly in PTSD patients. Our study aims to perform the resting-state lag analysis (RS-LA) method to explore potential propagated patterns of intrinsic brain activities in PTSD patients. We recruited 27 drug-naive patients with PTSD, 33 trauma-exposed controls (TEC), and 30 demographically matched healthy controls (HC) in the final data statistics. Both RS-LA and conventional voxel-wise functional connectivity strength (FCS) methods were employed on the same dataset. Then, Spearman correlation analysis was conducted on time latency values of those abnormal brain regions with the clinical assessments. Compared with HC group, the time latency patterns of PTSD patients significantly shifted toward later in posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus, middle prefrontal cortex, right angular, and left pre- and post-central cortex. The TEC group tended to have similar time latency in right angular. Additionally, significant time latency in right STG was found in PTSD group relative to TEC group. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that the time latency value of mPFC negatively correlated to the PTSD checklist-civilian version scores (PCL_C) in PTSD group (r = −0.578, P < 0.05). Furthermore, group differences map of FCS exhibited parts of overlapping areas with that of RS-LA, however, less specificity in detecting PTSD patients. In conclusion, apparent alterations of time latency were observed in DMN and primary sensorimotor areas of PTSD patients. These findings provide us with new evidence to explain the neural pathophysiology contributing to PTSD. PMID:29887811

Kinetic theory-based numerical modeling and analysis of bi-disperse segregated mixture fluidized bed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konan, N. A.; Huckaby, E. D.

We discuss a series of continuum Euler-Euler simulations of an initially mixed bi-disperse fluidized bed which segregates under certain operating conditions. The simulations use the multi-phase kinetic theory-based description of the momentum and energy exchanges between the phases by Simonin’s Group [see e.g. Gourdel, Simonin and Brunier (1999). Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Circulating Fluidized Beds, Germany, pp. 205-210]. The discussion and analysis of the results focus on the fluid-particle momentum exchange (i.e. drag). Simulations using mono- and poly-disperse fluid-particle drag correlations are analyzed for the Geldart D-type size bi-disperse gas-solid experiments performed by Goldschmidt et al. [Powder Tech.,more » pp. 135-159 (2003)]. The poly-disperse gas-particle drag correlations account for the local particle size distribution by using an effective mixture diameter when calculating the Reynolds number and then correcting the resulting force coefficient. Simulation results show very good predictions of the segregation index for bidisperse beds with the mono-disperse drag correlations contrary to the poly-disperse drag correlations for which the segregation rate is systematically under-predicted. The statistical analysis of the results shows a clear separation in the distribution of the gas-particle mean relaxation times of the small and large particles with simulations using the mono-disperse drag. In contrast, the poly-disperse drag simulations have a significant overlap and also a smaller difference in the mean particle relaxation times. This results in the small and large particles in the bed to respond to the gas similarly without enough relative time lag. The results suggest that the difference in the particle response time induce flow dynamics favorable to a force imbalance which results in the segregation.« less

Kinetic theory-based numerical modeling and analysis of bi-disperse segregated mixture fluidized bed

DOE PAGES

Konan, N. A.; Huckaby, E. D.

2017-06-21

We discuss a series of continuum Euler-Euler simulations of an initially mixed bi-disperse fluidized bed which segregates under certain operating conditions. The simulations use the multi-phase kinetic theory-based description of the momentum and energy exchanges between the phases by Simonin’s Group [see e.g. Gourdel, Simonin and Brunier (1999). Proceedings of 6th International Conference on Circulating Fluidized Beds, Germany, pp. 205-210]. The discussion and analysis of the results focus on the fluid-particle momentum exchange (i.e. drag). Simulations using mono- and poly-disperse fluid-particle drag correlations are analyzed for the Geldart D-type size bi-disperse gas-solid experiments performed by Goldschmidt et al. [Powder Tech.,more » pp. 135-159 (2003)]. The poly-disperse gas-particle drag correlations account for the local particle size distribution by using an effective mixture diameter when calculating the Reynolds number and then correcting the resulting force coefficient. Simulation results show very good predictions of the segregation index for bidisperse beds with the mono-disperse drag correlations contrary to the poly-disperse drag correlations for which the segregation rate is systematically under-predicted. The statistical analysis of the results shows a clear separation in the distribution of the gas-particle mean relaxation times of the small and large particles with simulations using the mono-disperse drag. In contrast, the poly-disperse drag simulations have a significant overlap and also a smaller difference in the mean particle relaxation times. This results in the small and large particles in the bed to respond to the gas similarly without enough relative time lag. The results suggest that the difference in the particle response time induce flow dynamics favorable to a force imbalance which results in the segregation.« less

Air pollutants and atmospheric pressure increased risk of ED visit for spontaneous pneumothorax.

PubMed

Park, Joo Hyung; Lee, Sun Hwa; Yun, Seong Jong; Ryu, Seokyong; Choi, Seung Woon; Kim, Hye Jin; Kang, Tae Kyung; Oh, Sung Chan; Cho, Suk Jin

2018-04-14

To investigate the impact of short-term exposure to air pollutants and meteorological variation on ED visits for primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP). We retrospectively identified PSP cases that presented at the ED of our tertiary center between January 2015 and September 2016. We classified the days into three types: no PSP day (0 case/day), sporadic days (1-2 cases/day), and cluster days (PSP, ≥3 cases/day). Association between the daily incidence of PSP with air pollutants and meteorological data were determined using Poisson generalized-linear-model to calculate incidence rate ratio (IRRs) and the use of time-series (lag-1 [the cumulative air pollution level on the previous day of PSP], lag-2 [two days ago], and lag-3 [three days ago]). Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, O 3 (p = 0.010), NO 2 (p = 0.047), particulate matters (PM) 10 (p = 0.021), and PM 2.5 (p = 0.008) were significant factors of PSP occurrence. When the concentration of O 3 , NO 2 , PM 10 , and PM 2.5 were increased, PSP IRRs increased approximately 15, 16, 3, and 5-fold, respectively. With the time-series analyses, atmospheric pressure in lag-3 was significantly lower and in lag-2, was significantly higher in PSP days compared with no PSP days. Among air pollutant concentrations, O 3 in lag-1 (p = 0.017) and lag-2 (p = 0.038), NO 2 in lag-1 (p = 0.015) and lag-2 (p = 0.009), PM 10 in lag-1 (p = 0.012), and PM 2.5 in lag-1 (p = 0.021) and lag-2 (p = 0.032) were significantly different between no PSP and PSP days. Increased concentrations of air pollutants and abrupt change in atmospheric pressure were significantly associated with increased IRR of PSP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A case-crossover analysis of forest fire haze events and mortality in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahani, Mazrura; Zainon, Nurul Ashikin; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Latif, Mohd Talib; Hod, Rozita; Khan, Md Firoz; Tahir, Norhayati Mohd; Chan, Chang-Chuan

2014-10-01

The Southeast Asian (SEA) haze events due to forest fires are recurrent and affect Malaysia, particularly the Klang Valley region. The aim of this study is to examine the risk of haze days due to biomass burning in Southeast Asia on daily mortality in the Klang Valley region between 2000 and 2007. We used a case-crossover study design to model the effect of haze based on PM10 concentration to the daily mortality. The time-stratified control sampling approach was used, adjusted for particulate matter (PM10) concentrations, time trends and meteorological influences. Based on time series analysis of PM10 and backward trajectory analysis, haze days were defined when daily PM10 concentration exceeded 100 μg/m3. The results showed a total of 88 haze days were identified in the Klang Valley region during the study period. A total of 126,822 cases of death were recorded for natural mortality where respiratory mortality represented 8.56% (N = 10,854). Haze events were found to be significantly associated with natural and respiratory mortality at various lags. For natural mortality, haze events at lagged 2 showed significant association with children less than 14 years old (Odd Ratio (OR) = 1.41; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.01-1.99). Respiratory mortality was significantly associated with haze events for all ages at lagged 0 (OR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.02-1.40). Age-and-gender-specific analysis showed an incremental risk of respiratory mortality among all males and elderly males above 60 years old at lagged 0 (OR = 1.34; 95% CI = 1.09-1.64 and OR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.09-1.84 respectively). Adult females aged 15-59 years old were found to be at highest risk of respiratory mortality at lagged 5 (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.03-1.99). This study clearly indicates that exposure to haze events showed immediate and delayed effects on mortality.

A Multitaper, Causal Decomposition for Stochastic, Multivariate Time Series: Application to High-Frequency Calcium Imaging Data.

PubMed

Sornborger, Andrew T; Lauderdale, James D

2016-11-01

Neural data analysis has increasingly incorporated causal information to study circuit connectivity. Dimensional reduction forms the basis of most analyses of large multivariate time series. Here, we present a new, multitaper-based decomposition for stochastic, multivariate time series that acts on the covariance of the time series at all lags, C ( τ ), as opposed to standard methods that decompose the time series, X ( t ), using only information at zero-lag. In both simulated and neural imaging examples, we demonstrate that methods that neglect the full causal structure may be discarding important dynamical information in a time series.

Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals difficult to be detected at a local scale as it could cause large uncertainties when using linear correlation analysis only. This paper explores the relationship between global SST and terrestrial precipitation with respect to long-term non-stationary teleconnection signals during 1981-2010 over three regions in North America and one in Central America. Empirical mode decomposition as well as wavelet analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic trend and the dominant oscillation of the SST and precipitation time series in sequence. After finding possible associations between the dominant oscillation of seasonal precipitation and global SST through lagged correlation analysis, the statistically significant SST regions are extracted based on the correlation coefficient. With these characterized associations, individual contribution of these SST forcing regions linked to the related precipitation responses are further quantified through nonlinear modeling with the aid of extreme learning machine. Results indicate that the non-leading SST regions also contribute a salient portion to the terrestrial precipitation variability compared to some known leading SST regions. In some cases, these

Spatial epidemiology of suspected clinical leptospirosis in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Robertson, C; Nelson, T A; Stephen, C

2012-04-01

Leptospirosis is one of the most widespread zoonoses in the world. A large outbreak of suspected human leptospirosis began in Sri Lanka during 2008. This study investigated spatial variables associated with suspected leptospirosis risk during endemic and outbreak periods. Data were obtained for monthly numbers of reported cases of suspected clinical leptospirosis for 2005-2009 for all of Sri Lanka. Space-time scan statistics were combined with regression modelling to test associations during endemic and outbreak periods. The cross-correlation function was used to test association between rainfall and leptospirosis at four locations. During the endemic period (2005-2007), leptospirosis risk was positively associated with shorter average distance to rivers and with higher percentage of agriculture made up of farms <0·20 hectares. Temporal correlation analysis of suspected leptospirosis cases and rainfall revealed a 2-month lag in rainfall-case association during the baseline period. Outbreak locations in 2008 were characterized by shorter distance to rivers and higher population density. The analysis suggests the possibility of household transmission in densely populated semi-urban villages as a defining characteristic of the outbreak. The role of rainfall in the outbreak remains to be investigated, although analysis here suggests a more complex relationship than simple correlation.

Mutual information estimation for irregularly sampled time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, K.; Marwan, N.; Heitzig, J.; Kurths, J.

2012-04-01

For the automated, objective and joint analysis of time series, similarity measures are crucial. Used in the analysis of climate records, they allow for a complimentary, unbiased view onto sparse datasets. The irregular sampling of many of these time series, however, makes it necessary to either perform signal reconstruction (e.g. interpolation) or to develop and use adapted measures. Standard linear interpolation comes with an inevitable loss of information and bias effects. We have recently developed a Gaussian kernel-based correlation algorithm with which the interpolation error can be substantially lowered, but this would not work should the functional relationship in a bivariate setting be non-linear. We therefore propose an algorithm to estimate lagged auto and cross mutual information from irregularly sampled time series. We have extended the standard and adaptive binning histogram estimators and use Gaussian distributed weights in the estimation of the (joint) probabilities. To test our method we have simulated linear and nonlinear auto-regressive processes with Gamma-distributed inter-sampling intervals. We have then performed a sensitivity analysis for the estimation of actual coupling length, the lag of coupling and the decorrelation time in the synthetic time series and contrast our results to the performance of a signal reconstruction scheme. Finally we applied our estimator to speleothem records. We compare the estimated memory (or decorrelation time) to that from a least-squares estimator based on fitting an auto-regressive process of order 1. The calculated (cross) mutual information results are compared for the different estimators (standard or adaptive binning) and contrasted with results from signal reconstruction. We find that the kernel-based estimator has a significantly lower root mean square error and less systematic sampling bias than the interpolation-based method. It is possible that these encouraging results could be further improved by using non-histogram mutual information estimators, like k-Nearest Neighbor or Kernel-Density estimators, but for short (<1000 points) and irregularly sampled datasets the proposed algorithm is already a great improvement.

Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Peter E.; Pesnell, W. Dean

2013-01-01

Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction.

47 CFR 52.103 - Lag times.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Lag times. 52.103 Section 52.103... Free Numbers § 52.103 Lag times. (a) Definitions. As used in this section, the following definitions... and an exchange carrier intercept recording is being provided. (3) Lag Time. The interval between a...

47 CFR 52.103 - Lag times.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Lag times. 52.103 Section 52.103... Free Numbers § 52.103 Lag times. (a) Definitions. As used in this section, the following definitions... and an exchange carrier intercept recording is being provided. (3) Lag Time. The interval between a...

47 CFR 52.103 - Lag times.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Lag times. 52.103 Section 52.103... Free Numbers § 52.103 Lag times. (a) Definitions. As used in this section, the following definitions... and an exchange carrier intercept recording is being provided. (3) Lag Time. The interval between a...

47 CFR 52.103 - Lag times.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Lag times. 52.103 Section 52.103... Free Numbers § 52.103 Lag times. (a) Definitions. As used in this section, the following definitions... and an exchange carrier intercept recording is being provided. (3) Lag Time. The interval between a...

Statistical models and time series forecasting of sulfur dioxide: a case study Tehran.

PubMed

Hassanzadeh, S; Hosseinibalam, F; Alizadeh, R

2009-08-01

This study performed a time-series analysis, frequency distribution and prediction of SO(2) levels for five stations (Pardisan, Vila, Azadi, Gholhak and Bahman) in Tehran for the period of 2000-2005. Most sites show a quite similar characteristic with highest pollution in autumn-winter time and least pollution in spring-summer. The frequency distributions show higher peaks at two residential sites. The potential for SO(2) problems is high because of high emissions and the close geographical proximity of the major industrial and urban centers. The ACF and PACF are nonzero for several lags, indicating a mixed (ARMA) model, then at Bahman station an ARMA model was used for forecasting SO(2). The partial autocorrelations become close to 0 after about 5 lags while the autocorrelations remain strong through all the lags shown. The results proved that ARMA (2,2) model can provides reliable, satisfactory predictions for time series.

[Effect of the development phase and growth rate of a Shigella sonnei population on the reproduction of homologous bacteriophage].

PubMed

Voroshilova, N N; Kazakova, T B

1983-04-01

This study showed that the minimum latent period (20 minutes) of the intracellular multiplication of dysentery bacteriophage S-9 in the population of S. sonnei substrate strain under the conditions of static heterogeneous surface batch cultivation was observed at the end of the lag phase and at the growth acceleration phase, in the first and second thirds of the exponential curve, while the maximum latent period (35-40 minutes) was observed at the stationary phase. The maximum yield of phage S-9 from one infected bacterial cell (628.3 +/- 116.8) was registered during the first third of the phase of the exponential growth of the bacterial population and the minimum yield (18.66 +/- 6.6), at the beginning of the lag phase. The significant direct correlation between the specific growth rate of the bacterial population and the yield of the phage from one infected bacterial cell at the end of the lag phase, at the growth acceleration and deceleration phases, as well as the significant inverse correlation between the yield of the phage and the time of the generation of the bacterial population at the growth acceleration phase were established.

Identifying some determinants of "jet lag" and its symptoms: a study of athletes and other travellers.

PubMed

Waterhouse, J; Edwards, B; Nevill, A; Carvalho, S; Atkinson, G; Buckley, P; Reilly, T; Godfrey, R; Ramsay, R

2002-02-01

Travelling across multiple time zones disrupts normal circadian rhythms and induces "jet lag". Possible effects of this on training and performance in athletes were concerns before the Sydney Olympic Games. To identify some determinants of jet lag and its symptoms. A mixture of athletes, their coaches, and academics attending a conference (n = 85) was studied during their flights from the United Kingdom to Australia (two flights with a one hour stopover in Singapore), and for the first six days in Australia. Subjects differed in age, sex, chronotype, flexibility of sleeping habits, feelings of languor, fitness, time of arrival in Australia, and whether or not they had previous experience of travel to Australia. These variables and whether the body clock adjusted to new local time by phase advance or delay were tested as predictors for jet lag and some of its symptoms by stepwise multiple regression analyses. The amount of sleep in the first flight was significantly greater in those who had left the United Kingdom in the evening than the morning (medians of 5.5 hours and 1.5 hours respectively; p = 0.0002, Mann-Whitney), whereas there was no significant difference on the second flight (2.5 hours v 2.8 hours; p = 0.72). Only the severity of jet lag and assessments of sleep and fatigue were commonly predicted significantly (p<0.05) by regression analysis, and then by only some of the variables. Thus increasing age and a later time of arrival in Australia were associated with less jet lag and fatigue, and previous experience of travel to Australia was associated with an earlier time of getting to sleep. Subjects who had adjusted by phase advance suffered worse jet lag during the 5th and 6th days in Australia. These results indicate the importance of an appropriate choice of itinerary and lifestyle for reducing the negative effects of jet lag in athletes and others who wish to perform optimally in the new time zone.

Revealing structure and evolution within the corona of the Seyfert galaxy I Zw 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkins, D. R.; Gallo, L. C.; Silva, C. V.; Costantini, E.; Brandt, W. N.; Kriss, G. A.

2017-11-01

X-ray spectral timing analysis is presented of XMM-Newton observations of the narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy I Zwicky 1 taken in 2015 January. After exploring the effect of background flaring on timing analyses, X-ray time lags between the reflection-dominated 0.3-1.0 keV energy and continuum-dominated 1.0-4.0 keV band are measured, indicative of reverberation off the inner accretion disc. The reverberation lag time is seen to vary as a step function in frequency; across lower frequency components of the variability, 3 × 10-4-1.2 × 10-3 Hz a lag of 160 s is measured, but the lag shortens to (59 ± 4) s above 1.2 × 10-3 Hz. The lag-energy spectrum reveals differing profiles between these ranges with a change in the dip showing the earliest arriving photons. The low-frequency signal indicates reverberation of X-rays emitted from a corona extended at low height over the disc, while at high frequencies, variability is generated in a collimated core of the corona through which luminosity fluctuations propagate upwards. Principal component analysis of the variability supports this interpretation, showing uncorrelated variation in the spectral slope of two power-law continuum components. The distinct evolution of the two components of the corona is seen as a flare passes inwards from the extended to the collimated portion. An increase in variability in the extended corona was found preceding the initial increase in X-ray flux. Variability from the extended corona was seen to die away as the flare passed into the collimated core leading to a second sharper increase in the X-ray count rate.

Meteorological Influence on the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic in Mainland China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Cai, J.; Feng, D.; Bai, Y.; Xu, B.

2015-12-01

Since May 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has spread rapidly in mainland China from Mexico. Although there has been substantial analysis of this influenza, reliable work estimating its spatial dynamics and determinants remain scarce. The survival and transmission of this pandemic virus not only depends on its biological properties, but also a correlation with external environmental factors. In this study, we collected daily influenza A (H1N1) cases and corresponding annual meteorological factors in mainland China from May 2009 to April 2010. By analyzing these data at county-level, a similarity index, which considered the spatio-temporal characteristics of the disease, was proposed to evaluate the role and lag time of meteorological factors in the influenza transmission. The results indicated that the influenza spanned a large geographical area, following an overall trend from east to west across the country. The spatio-temporal transmission of the disease was affected by a series of meteorological variables, especially absolute humidity with a 3-week lag. These findings confirmed that the absolute humidity and other meteorological variables contributed to the local occurrence and dispersal of influenza A (H1N1). The impact of meteorological variables and their lag effects could be involved in the improvement of effective strategies to control and prevent disease outbreaks.

Analysis of inadvertent microprocessor lag time on eddy covariance results

Treesearch

Karl Zeller; Gary Zimmerman; Ted Hehn; Evgeny Donev; Diane Denny; Jeff Welker

2001-01-01

Researchers using the eddy covariance approach to measuring trace gas fluxes are often hoping to measure carbon dioxide and energy fluxes for ecosystem intercomparisons. This paper demonstrates a systematic microprocessor- caused lag of 20.1 to 20.2 s in a commercial sonic anemometer-analog-to-digital datapacker system operated at 10 Hz. The result of the inadvertent...

High-angle-of-attack pneumatic lag and upwash corrections for a hemispherical flow direction sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen A.; Heeg, Jennifer; Larson, Terry J.; Ehernberger, L. J.; Hagen, Floyd W.; Deleo, Richard V.

1987-01-01

As part of the NASA F-14 high angle of attack flight test program, a nose mounted hemispherical flow direction sensor was calibrated against a fuselage mounted movable vane flow angle sensor. Significant discrepancies were found to exist in the angle of attack measurements. A two fold approach taken to resolve these discrepancies during subsonic flight is described. First, the sensing integrity of the isolated hemispherical sensor is established by wind tunnel data extending to an angle of attack of 60 deg. Second, two probable causes for the discrepancies, pneumatic lag and upwash, are examined. Methods of identifying and compensating for lag and upwash are presented. The wind tunnel data verify that the isolated hemispherical sensor is sufficiently accurate for static conditions with angles of attack up to 60 deg and angles of sideslip up to 30 deg. Analysis of flight data for two high angle of attack maneuvers establishes that pneumatic lag and upwash are highly correlated with the discrepancies between the hemispherical and vane type sensor measurements.

Combining geostatistics with Moran's I analysis for mapping soil heavy metals in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Huo, Xiao-Ni; Li, Hong; Sun, Dan-Feng; Zhou, Lian-Di; Li, Bao-Guo

2012-03-01

Production of high quality interpolation maps of heavy metals is important for risk assessment of environmental pollution. In this paper, the spatial correlation characteristics information obtained from Moran's I analysis was used to supplement the traditional geostatistics. According to Moran's I analysis, four characteristics distances were obtained and used as the active lag distance to calculate the semivariance. Validation of the optimality of semivariance demonstrated that using the two distances where the Moran's I and the standardized Moran's I, Z(I) reached a maximum as the active lag distance can improve the fitting accuracy of semivariance. Then, spatial interpolation was produced based on the two distances and their nested model. The comparative analysis of estimation accuracy and the measured and predicted pollution status showed that the method combining geostatistics with Moran's I analysis was better than traditional geostatistics. Thus, Moran's I analysis is a useful complement for geostatistics to improve the spatial interpolation accuracy of heavy metals.

Combining Geostatistics with Moran’s I Analysis for Mapping Soil Heavy Metals in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Huo, Xiao-Ni; Li, Hong; Sun, Dan-Feng; Zhou, Lian-Di; Li, Bao-Guo

2012-01-01

Production of high quality interpolation maps of heavy metals is important for risk assessment of environmental pollution. In this paper, the spatial correlation characteristics information obtained from Moran’s I analysis was used to supplement the traditional geostatistics. According to Moran’s I analysis, four characteristics distances were obtained and used as the active lag distance to calculate the semivariance. Validation of the optimality of semivariance demonstrated that using the two distances where the Moran’s I and the standardized Moran’s I, Z(I) reached a maximum as the active lag distance can improve the fitting accuracy of semivariance. Then, spatial interpolation was produced based on the two distances and their nested model. The comparative analysis of estimation accuracy and the measured and predicted pollution status showed that the method combining geostatistics with Moran’s I analysis was better than traditional geostatistics. Thus, Moran’s I analysis is a useful complement for geostatistics to improve the spatial interpolation accuracy of heavy metals. PMID:22690179

Low adolescent self-esteem leads to multiple interpersonal problems: a test a social-adaptation theory.

PubMed

Kahle, L R; Kulka, R A; Klingel, D M

1980-09-01

This article reports the results of a study that annually monitored the self-esteem and interpersonal problems of over 100 boys during their sophomore, junior, and senior years of high school. Cross-lagged panel correlation differences show that low self-esteem leads to interpersonal problems in all three time lags when multiple interpersonal problems constitute the dependent variable but not when single interpersonal problem criteria constitute the dependent variable. These results are interpreted as supporting social-adaptation theory rather than self-perception theory. Implications for the conceptual status of personality variables as causal antecedents and for the assessment of individual differences are discussed.

Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hedi; Chen, Haishan; Gray, Lesley; Zhou, Liming; Li, Xing; Wang, Ruili; Zhu, Siguang

2018-03-01

Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11 year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of long-term climate data sets dating back to the late 19th century, however, suggest a mean sea level pressure (mslp) response that lags the SC by 2-4 years in the southern node of the NAO (i.e. Azores region). To understand the conflicting nature and cause of these time dependencies in the SC surface response, the present study employs a lead/lag multi-linear regression technique with a sliding window of 44 years over the period 1751-2016. Results confirm previous analyses, in which the average response for the whole time period features a statistically significant 2-4 year lagged mslp response centered over the Azores region. Overall, the lagged nature of Azores mslp response is generally consistent in time. Stronger and statistically significant SC signals tend to appear in the periods when the SC forcing amplitudes are relatively larger. Individual month analysis indicates the consistent lagged response in December-January-February average arises primarily from early winter months (i.e. December and January), which has been associated with ocean feedback processes that involve reinforcement by anomalies from the previous winter. Additional analysis suggests that the synchronous NAO-like response in recent decades arises primarily from late winter (February), possibly reflecting a result of strong internal noise.

Estimation of watershed lag times and times of concentration for the Kansas City Area : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

The new lag-time equation for the Kansas City area performs better than the 2001 KU-KDOT equation for urban lag time, which was developed from a study of 14 gaged watersheds in Johnson County (McEnroe & Zhao, 2001). The main advantage of the new lag-...

Synchronization properties of coupled chaotic neurons: The role of random shared input

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Rupesh; Bilal, Shakir; Ramaswamy, Ram

Spike-time correlations of neighbouring neurons depend on their intrinsic firing properties as well as on the inputs they share. Studies have shown that periodically firing neurons, when subjected to random shared input, exhibit asynchronicity. Here, we study the effect of random shared input on the synchronization of weakly coupled chaotic neurons. The cases of so-called electrical and chemical coupling are both considered, and we observe a wide range of synchronization behaviour. When subjected to identical shared random input, there is a decrease in the threshold coupling strength needed for chaotic neurons to synchronize in-phase. The system also supports lag–synchronous states,more » and for these, we find that shared input can cause desynchronization. We carry out a master stability function analysis for a network of such neurons and show agreement with the numerical simulations. The contrasting role of shared random input for complete and lag synchronized neurons is useful in understanding spike-time correlations observed in many areas of the brain.« less

Flood basalts and extinction events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1993-01-01

The largest known effusive eruptions during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras, the voluminous flood basalts, have long been suspected as being associated with major extinctions of biotic species. Despite the possible errors attached to the dates in both time series of events, the significance level of the suspected correlation is found here to be 1 percent to 4 percent. Statistically, extinctions lag eruptions by a mean time interval that is indistinguishable from zero, being much less than the average residual derived from the correlation analysis. Oceanic flood basalts, however, must have had a different biological impact, which is still uncertain owing to the small number of known examples and differing physical factors. Although not all continental flood basalts can have produced major extinction events, the noncorrelating eruptions may have led to smaller marine extinction events that terminated at least some of the less catastrophically ending geologic stages. Consequently, the 26 Myr quasi-periodicity seen in major marine extinctions may be only a sampling effect, rather than a manifestation of underlying periodicity.

Possible Noise Nature of Elsässer Variable z- in Highly Alfvénic Solar Wind Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Tu, C.-Y.; He, J.-S.; Wang, L.-H.; Yao, S.; Zhang, L.

2018-01-01

It has been a long-standing debate on the nature of Elsässer variable z- observed in the solar wind fluctuations. It is widely believed that z- represents inward propagating Alfvén waves and interacts nonlinearly with z+ (outward propagating Alfvén waves) to generate energy cascade. However, z- variations sometimes show a feature of convective structures. Here we present a new data analysis on autocorrelation functions of z- in order to get some definite information on its nature. We find that there is usually a large drop on the z- autocorrelation function when the solar wind fluctuations are highly Alfvénic. The large drop observed by Helios 2 spacecraft near 0.3 AU appears at the first nonzero time lag τ = 81 s, where the value of the autocorrelation coefficient drops to 25%-65% of that at τ = 0 s. Beyond the first nonzero time lag, the autocorrelation coefficient decreases gradually to zero. The drop of z- correlation function also appears in the Wind observations near 1 AU. These features of the z- correlation function may suggest that z- fluctuations consist of two components: high-frequency white noise and low-frequency pseudo structures, which correspond to flat and steep parts of z- power spectrum, respectively. This explanation is confirmed by doing a simple test on an artificial time series, which is obtained from the superposition of a random data series on its smoothed sequence. Our results suggest that in highly Alfvénic fluctuations, z- may not contribute importantly to the interactions with z+ to produce energy cascade.

Effective Iterated Greedy Algorithm for Flow-Shop Scheduling Problems with Time lags

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ZHAO, Ning; YE, Song; LI, Kaidian; CHEN, Siyu

2017-05-01

Flow shop scheduling problem with time lags is a practical scheduling problem and attracts many studies. Permutation problem(PFSP with time lags) is concentrated but non-permutation problem(non-PFSP with time lags) seems to be neglected. With the aim to minimize the makespan and satisfy time lag constraints, efficient algorithms corresponding to PFSP and non-PFSP problems are proposed, which consist of iterated greedy algorithm for permutation(IGTLP) and iterated greedy algorithm for non-permutation (IGTLNP). The proposed algorithms are verified using well-known simple and complex instances of permutation and non-permutation problems with various time lag ranges. The permutation results indicate that the proposed IGTLP can reach near optimal solution within nearly 11% computational time of traditional GA approach. The non-permutation results indicate that the proposed IG can reach nearly same solution within less than 1% computational time compared with traditional GA approach. The proposed research combines PFSP and non-PFSP together with minimal and maximal time lag consideration, which provides an interesting viewpoint for industrial implementation.

Southern Right Whale (Eubalaena australis) Reproductive Success is Influenced by Krill (Euphausia superba) Density and Climate

PubMed Central

Seyboth, Elisa; Groch, Karina R.; Dalla Rosa, Luciano; Reid, Keith; Flores, Paulo A. C.; Secchi, Eduardo R.

2016-01-01

The reproductive success of southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) depends on body condition and, therefore, on foraging success. This, in turn, might be affected by climatically driven change in the abundance of the species main prey, krill (Euphausia superba), on the feeding grounds. Annual data on southern right whale number of calves were obtained from aerial surveys carried out between 1997 and 2013 in southern Brazil, where the species concentrate during their breeding season. The number of calves recorded each year varied from 7 to 43 ( = 21.11 ± 11.88). Using cross-correlation analysis we examined the response of the species to climate anomalies and krill densities. Significant correlations were found with krill densities (r = 0.69, p = 0.002, lag 0 years), Oceanic Niño Index (r = −0.65, p = 0.03, lag 6 years), Antarctic Oscillation (r = 0.76, p = 0.01, lag 7 years) and Antarctic sea ice area (r = −0.68, p = 0.002, lag 0 years). Our results suggest that global climate indices influence southern right whale breeding success in southern Brazil by determining variation in food (krill) availability for the species. Therefore, increased frequency of years with reduced krill abundance, due to global warming, is likely to reduce the current rate of recovery of southern right whales from historical overexploitation. PMID:27306583

Evolution of genuine cross-correlation strength of focal onset seizures.

PubMed

Müller, Markus F; Baier, Gerold; Jiménez, Yurytzy López; Marín García, Arlex O; Rummel, Christian; Schindler, Kaspar

2011-10-01

To quantify the evolution of genuine zero-lag cross-correlations of focal onset seizures, we apply a recently introduced multivariate measure to broad band and to narrow-band EEG data. For frequency components below 12.5 Hz, the strength of genuine cross-correlations decreases significantly during the seizure and the immediate postseizure period, while higher frequency bands show a tendency of elevated cross-correlations during the same period. We conclude that in terms of genuine zero-lag cross-correlations, the electrical brain activity as assessed by scalp electrodes shows a significant spatial fragmentation, which might promote seizure offset.

Time-lag and Correlation between ACE and RBSPICE Injection Event Observations during Storm Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madanian, H.; Patterson, J. D.; Manweiler, J. W.; Soto-chavez, A. R.; Gerrard, A. J.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-12-01

The Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) on the Van Allen Probes mission measures energetic charged particles [ 20 keV to 1 MeV] in the inner magnetosphere and ring current. During geomagnetic storms, injections of energetic ions into the ring current change the ion population and produce geomagnetic field depressions on Earth's surface. We analyzed the magnetic field strength and particle composition in the interplanetary medium measured by instruments on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft near the inner Lagrangian point. The Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor-Low Energy Magnetic Spectrometer (EPAM-LEMS) sensor on ACE measures energetic particles [ 50 keV to 5 MeV] in the interplanetary space. The SYM-H index is utilized to classify the storm events by magnitude and to select more than 60 storm events between 2013 and 2017. We cross-compared ACE observations at storm times, with the RBSPICE ion measurements at dusk to midnight magnetic local time and over the 3-6 L-shell range. We report on the relative composition of the solar particles and the relative composition of the inner magnetospheric hot plasma during storm times. The data correlation is accomplished by shifting the observation time from ACE to RBSPICE using the solar wind velocity at the time of the observation. We will discuss time lags between storm onset at the magnetopause and injection events measured for each storm.

The Utility of the Extended Images in Ambient Seismic Wavefield Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, A. J.; Shragge, J. C.

2015-12-01

Active-source 3D seismic migration and migration velocity analysis (MVA) are robust and highly used methods for imaging Earth structure. One class of migration methods uses extended images constructed by incorporating spatial and/or temporal wavefield correlation lags to the imaging conditions. These extended images allow users to directly assess whether images focus better with different parameters, which leads to MVA techniques that are based on the tenets of adjoint-state theory. Under certain conditions (e.g., geographical, cultural or financial), however, active-source methods can prove impractical. Utilizing ambient seismic energy that naturally propagates through the Earth is an alternate method currently used in the scientific community. Thus, an open question is whether extended images are similarly useful for ambient seismic migration processing and verifying subsurface velocity models, and whether one can similarly apply adjoint-state methods to perform ambient migration velocity analysis (AMVA). Herein, we conduct a number of numerical experiments that construct extended images from ambient seismic recordings. We demonstrate that, similar to active-source methods, there is a sensitivity to velocity in ambient seismic recordings in the migrated extended image domain. In synthetic ambient imaging tests with varying degrees of error introduced to the velocity model, the extended images are sensitive to velocity model errors. To determine the extent of this sensitivity, we utilize acoustic wave-equation propagation and cross-correlation-based migration methods to image weak body-wave signals present in the recordings. Importantly, we have also observed scenarios where non-zero correlation lags show signal while zero-lags show none. This may be a valuable missing piece for ambient migration techniques that have yielded largely inconclusive results, and might be an important piece of information for performing AMVA from ambient seismic recordings.

A general statistical test for correlations in a finite-length time series.

PubMed

Hanson, Jeffery A; Yang, Haw

2008-06-07

The statistical properties of the autocorrelation function from a time series composed of independently and identically distributed stochastic variables has been studied. Analytical expressions for the autocorrelation function's variance have been derived. It has been found that two common ways of calculating the autocorrelation, moving-average and Fourier transform, exhibit different uncertainty characteristics. For periodic time series, the Fourier transform method is preferred because it gives smaller uncertainties that are uniform through all time lags. Based on these analytical results, a statistically robust method has been proposed to test the existence of correlations in a time series. The statistical test is verified by computer simulations and an application to single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy is discussed.

Air Pollution and Deaths among Elderly Residents of São Paulo, Brazil: An Analysis of Mortality Displacement.

PubMed

Costa, Amine Farias; Hoek, Gerard; Brunekreef, Bert; Ponce de Leon, Antônio C M

2017-03-01

Evaluation of short-term mortality displacement is essential to accurately estimate the impact of short-term air pollution exposure on public health. We quantified mortality displacement by estimating single-day lag effects and cumulative effects of air pollutants on mortality using distributed lag models. We performed a daily time series of nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality among elderly residents of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2000 and 2011. Effects of particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) were estimated in Poisson generalized additive models. Single-day lag effects of air pollutant exposure were estimated for 0-, 1- and 2-day lags. Distributed lag models with lags of 0-10, 0-20 and 0-30 days were used to assess mortality displacement and potential cumulative exposure effects. PM 10 , NO 2 and CO were significantly associated with nonaccidental and cause-specific deaths in both single-day lag and cumulative lag models. Cumulative effect estimates for 0-10 days were larger than estimates for single-day lags. Cumulative effect estimates for 0-30 days were essentially zero for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths but remained elevated for respiratory and cancer deaths. We found evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for nonaccidental and circulatory deaths in elderly residents of São Paulo. We did not find evidence of mortality displacement within 30 days for respiratory or cancer deaths. Citation: Costa AF, Hoek G, Brunekreef B, Ponce de Leon AC. 2017. Air pollution and deaths among elderly residents of São Paulo, Brazil: an analysis of mortality displacement. Environ Health Perspect 125:349-354; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP98.

Long-Lag, Wide-pulse Gamma-Ray Bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, J. P.; Bonnell, J. T.; Kazanas, D.; Scargie, J. D.; Hakkila, J.; Giblin, T. W.

2005-01-01

The best available probe of the early phase of gamma-ray burst (GRB) jet attributes is the prompt gamma-ray emission, in which several intrinsic and extrinsic variables determine observed GRB pulse evolution, including at least: jet opening angle, profiles of Lorentz factor and matter/field density, distance of emission region from central source, and viewing angle. Bright, usually complex bursts have many narrow pulses that are difficult to model due to overlap. However, the relatively simple, long spectral lag, wide-pulse bursts may have simpler physics and are easier to model. We have analyzed the temporal and spectral behavior of wide pulses in 24 long-lag bursts from the BATSE sample, using a pulse model with two shape parameters - width and asymmetry - and the Band spectral model with three shape parameters. We find that pulses in long-lag bursts are distinguished both temporally and spectrally from those in bright bursts: the pulses in long spectral lag bursts are few in number, and approximately 100 times wider (10s of seconds), have systemtically lower peaks in nu*F(nu), harder low-energy spectra and softer high-energy spectra. These five pulse descriptors are essentially uncorrelated for our long-lag sample, suggesting that at least approximately 5 parameters are needed to model burst temporal and spectral behavior, roughly commensurate with the theoretical phase space. However, we do find that pulse width is strongly correlated with spectral lag; hence these two parameters may be viewed as mutual surrogates. The prevalence of long-lag bursts near the BATSE trigger threshold, their predominantly low nu*F(nu) spectral peaks, and relatively steep upper power-law spectral indices indicate that Swiift will detect many such bursts.

Memory of the Lake Rotorua catchment - time lag of the water in the catchment and delayed arrival of contaminants from past land use activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgenstern, Uwe; Daughney, Christopher J.; Stewart, Michael K.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

2013-04-01

The transit time distribution of streamflow is a fundamental descriptor of the flowpaths of water through a catchment and the storage of water within it, controlling its response to landuse change, pollution, ecological degradation, and climate change. Significant time lags (catchment memory) in the responses of streams to these stressors and their amelioration or restoration have been observed. Lag time can be quantified via water transit time of the catchment discharge. Mean transit times can be in the order of years and decades (Stewart et al 2012, Morgenstern et al., 2010). If the water passes through large groundwater reservoirs, it is difficult to quantify and predict the lag time. A pulse shaped tracer that moves with the water can allow quantification of the mean transit time. Environmental tritium is the ideal tracer of the water cycle. Tritium is part of the water molecule, is not affected by chemical reactions in the aquifer, and the bomb tritium from the atmospheric nuclear weapons testing represents a pulse shaped tracer input that allows for very accurate measurement of the age distribution parameters of the water in the catchment discharge. Tritium time series data from all catchment discharges (streams and springs) into Lake Rotorua, New Zealand, allow for accurate determination of the age distribution parameters. The Lake Rotorua catchment tritium data from streams and springs are unique, with high-quality tritium data available over more than four decades, encompassing the time when the bomb-tritium moved through the groundwater system, and from a very high number of streams and springs. Together with the well-defined tritium input into the Rotorua catchment, this data set allows for the best understanding of the water dynamics through a large scale catchment, including validation of complicated water mixing models. Mean transit times of the main streams into the lake range between 27 and 170 years. With such old water discharging into the lake, most of the water inflows into the lake are not yet fully representing the nitrate loading in their sub-catchments from current land use practises. These water inflows are still 'diluted' by pristine old water, but over time, the full amount of nitrate load will arrive at the lake. With the age distribution parameters, it is possible to predict the increase in nitrate load to the lake via the groundwater discharges. All sub-catchments have different mean transit times. The mean transit times are not necessarily correlated with observable hydrogeologic properties like hydraulic conductivity and catchment size. Without such age tracer data, it is therefore difficult to predict mean transit times (lag times, memory) of water transfer through catchments. References: Stewart, M.K., Morgenstern, U., McDonnell, J.J., Pfister, L. (2012). The 'hidden streamflow' challenge in catchment hydrology: A call to action for streamwater transit time analysis. Hydrol. Process. 26,2061-2066, Invited commentary. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9262 Morgenstern, U., Stewart, M.K., and Stenger, R. (2010) Dating of streamwater using tritium in a post nuclear bomb pulse world: continuous variation of mean transit time with streamflow, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 14, 2289-2301

Temporal correlations between impulsive ultraviolet and hard X-ray bursts in solar flares observed with high time resolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Chung-Chieh; Vanderveen, K.; Orwig, L. E.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.

1988-01-01

The impulsive phase of solar flares has been simultaneously observed in the ultraviolet O V line, the UV continuum, and hard X-rays with a time resolution of 0.128 s by the SMM satellite. A close time correspondence between the three impulsive components is found, with the best correlation being at the peak of the impulsive phase. Individual bursts or fast features in the O V and the UV continuum are shown to lag behind the corresponding hard X-ray features. None of the considered energy transport mechanisms (thermal conduction, a nonthermal electron beam, electron hole boring, UV radiation, and Alfven waves) are able to consistently account for the observed temporal correlations.

Using infrasound waves to monitor tropospheric weather and crater morphology changes at Volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, Hugo D.; Johnson, Jeffrey B.; Ramón, Patricio G.; Ruiz, Mario C.

2018-01-01

We use infrasound waves generated during eruptions of Volcán Tungurahua (Ecuador) to study both, changing atmospheric conditions and volcanic source characteristics. Analyzed infrasound data were recorded for a 32-month period by a five-station network located within 6.5 km from the vent. We use cross-network correlation to quantify the recurrent eruptive behavior of Tungurahua and results are corroborated by reports from the Ecuadorian monitoring agency. Cross-network lag times vary over short time periods (minutes to days) when vent location is stable and attribute these variations to changes in atmospheric structure. Assuming a fixed source location, we invert for average air temperatures and winds in Tungurahua's vicinity (< 6.5 km) and find evidence for diurnal and semidiurnal tropospheric tides. We also use cross-network correlation lag times to compute infrasound source positions with resolutions of 11.6 m, taking into account coarse NOAA atmospheric models for local winds and temperatures. Variable infrasound-derived source locations suggest source migration during the 32 months of analyzed data. Such source position variability is expected following energetic eruptions that destructively altered the crater/vent morphology as confirmed by imagery obtained during regular overflights.

Safety and accuracy of a new long-term subconjunctival glucose sensor.

PubMed

Hasslacher, Christoph; Auffarth, Gerd; Platten, Isabell; Rabsilber, Tanja; Smith, Beate; Kulozik, Felix; Knuth, Monika; Nikolaus, Katharina; Müller, Achim

2012-09-01

A new biosensor has been developed by EyeSense (Großostheim, Germany) that is placed into the conjunctiva of one eye to measure the glucose concentration of the surrounding tissue in a non-invasive manner. In the present study we investigated the correlation between glucose concentrations measured by the EyeSense implant and those determined by finger prick testing, as well as the tolerability and safety of the implant over a 16-week period. The study was performed in 28 diabetic patients. The biosensor was inserted under local anesthesia and sterile conditions. Correlations between capillary glucose measured by laboratory methods and interstitial glucose determined by the biosensor were investigated by inducing increases and decreases in glucose values between 60 and 300 mg/dL. Most patients experienced a mild subconjunctival hemorrhage postoperatively. Except for the minor sensation of the presence of foreign body, the implants were well tolerated. Three patients lost the ocular mini insert spontaneously, whereas there was a function failure of the insert in four patients. Error grid analysis showed that the percentage of data pairs in the acceptable ranges (zone A and B) was very high (>96%). However, there was a shift from zone A to zone B during observation. This was due primarily to an increase in the lag time between capillary and interstitial measured glucose. he present study demonstrates good tolerability and measurement performance of the biosensor. The reasons for an increase in the lag time are still unknown; local reactions may be involved. © 2012 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Analyzing energy-water exchange dynamics in the Thar desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, P.; Singh, Nilendu; Srinivas, C. V.; Singhal, Mohit; Chauhan, Pankaj; Singh, Maharaj; Sinha, N. K.

2017-07-01

Regions of strong land-atmosphere coupling will be more susceptible to the hydrological impacts in the intensifying hydrological cycle. In this study, micrometeorological experiments were performed to examine the land-atmosphere coupling strength over a heat low region (Thar desert, NW India), known to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Within the vortex of Thar desert heat low, energy-water exchange and coupling behavior were studied for 4 consecutive years (2011-2014) based on sub-hourly measurements of radiative-convective flux, state parameters and sub-surface thermal profiles using lead-lag analysis between various E-W balance components. Results indicated a strong (0.11-0.35) but variable monsoon season (July-September) land-atmosphere coupling events. Coupling strength declined with time, becomes negative beyond 10-day lag. Evapotranspiration (LE) influences rainfall at the monthly time-scale (20-40 days). Highly correlated monthly rainfall and LE anomalies (r = 0.55, P < 0.001) suggested a large precipitation memory linked to the local land surface state. Sensible heating (SH) during March and April are more strongly (r = 0.6-0.7) correlated to ISM rainfall than heating during May or June (r = 0.16-0.36). Analyses show strong and weak couplings among net radiation (Rn)-vapour pressure deficit (VPD), LE-VPD and Rn-LE switching between energy-limited to water-limited conditions. Consistently, +ve and -ve residual energy [(dE) = (Rn - G) - (SH + LE)] were associated with regional wet and dry spells respectively with a lead of 10-40 days. Dew deposition (18.8-37.9 mm) was found an important component in the annual surface water balance. Strong association of variation of LE and rainfall was found during monsoon at local-scale and with regional-scale LE (MERRA 2D) but with a lag which was more prominent at local-scale than at regional-scale. Higher pre-monsoon LE at local-scale as compared to low and monotonous variation in regional-scale LE led to hypothesize that excess energy and water vapour brought through advection caused by pre-monsoon rainfall might have been recycled through rainfall to compensate for early part of monsoon rainfall at local-scale. However, long-term measurements and isotope analysis would be able to strengthen this hypothesis. This study would fill the key gaps in the global flux studies and improve understanding on local E-W exchange pathways, responses and feedbacks.

Multipath noise reduction spread spectrum signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meehan, Thomas K. (Inventor)

1994-01-01

The concepts of early-prompt delay tracking, multipath correction of early-prompt delay tracking from correlation shape, and carrier phase multipath correction are addressed. In early-prompt delay tracking, since multipath is always delayed with respect to the direct signals, the system derives phase and pseudorange observables from earlier correlation lags. In multipath correction of early-prompt delay tracking from correlation shape, the system looks for relative variations of amplitude across the code correlation function that do not match the predicted multipath-free code cross-correlation shape. The system then uses deviations from the multipath-free shape to infer the magnitude of multipath, and to generate corrections pseudorange observables. In carrier phase multipath correction, the system looks for variations of phase among plural early and prompt lags. The system uses the measured phase variations, along with the general principle that the multipath errors are larger for later lags, to infer the presence of multipath, and to generate corrections for carrier-phase observables.

Solar oscillations: time analysis of the GOLF p-mode signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renaud, C.; Grec, G.; Boumier, P.; Gabriel, A. H.; Robillot, J. M.; Cortés, T. Roca; Turck-Chièze, S.; Ulrich, R. K.

1999-05-01

We determine the intrinsic phase lag of the GOLF data for the solar p-mode velocity deduced either from one of the narrow band photometers working alternatively on blue and red wing of the sodium lines. The timing of the ``blue wing'' velocity coming from the current GOLF data is given in respect to the ground-based observations. The phase lag for the ``blue'' velocity is 6 s in advance relatively to a velocity coming from a differential device. For individual p modes, the phase lag from the ``blue'' velocity to the ``red'' velocity are not in opposition of phase, as expected in a very simple solar model, but differs from 8(o) to 18(o) from the opposition, depending on the degree and the radial order of the acoustic mode. The measurement of the differential lag between the blue and red wings of the D lines may open a new way to monitor the temperature oscillations with the optical depth.

Simplifying the diagnosis of 4 common voiding conditions using uroflow/electromyography, electromyography lag time and voiding history.

PubMed

Van Batavia, Jason P; Combs, Andrew J; Hyun, Grace; Bayer, Agnes; Medina-Kreppein, Daisy; Schlussel, Richard N; Glassberg, Kenneth I

2011-10-01

Noninvasive uroflowmetry with simultaneous electromyography is useful to triage cases of lower urinary tract symptoms into 4 urodynamically defined conditions, especially when incorporating short and long electromyography lag times in the analysis. We determined the prevalence of these 4 conditions at a single referral institution and the usefulness of uroflowmetry with simultaneous electromyography and electromyography lag time to confirm the diagnosis, guide treatment and monitor response. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 100 consecutive normal children who presented with persistent lower urinary tract symptoms, underwent uroflowmetry with electromyography as part of the initial evaluation and were diagnosed with 1 of 4 conditions based on certain uroflowmetry/electromyography features. The conditions included 1) dysfunctional voiding--active pelvic floor electromyography during voiding with or without staccato flow, 2a) idiopathic detrusor overactivity disorder-A--a quiet pelvic floor during voiding and shortened lag time (less than 2 seconds), 2b) idiopathic detrusor overactivity disorder-B--a quiet pelvic floor with a normal lag time, 3) detrusor underutilization disorder--volitionally deferred voiding with expanded bladder capacity but a quiet pelvic floor, and 4) primary bladder neck dysfunction--prolonged lag time (greater than 6 seconds) and a depressed, right shifted uroflowmetry curve with a quiet pelvic floor during voiding. Treatment was tailored to the underlying condition in each patient. The group consisted of 50 males and 50 females with a mean age of 8 years (range 3 to 18). Dysfunctional voiding was more common in females (p <0.05) while idiopathic detrusor overactivity disorder-B and primary bladder neck dysfunction were more common in males (p <0.01). With treatment uroflowmetry parameters normalized for all types. Electromyography lag time increased in idiopathic detrusor overactivity disorder-A cases and decreased in primary bladder neck dysfunction cases. Noninvasive uroflowmetry with simultaneous electromyography offers an excellent alternative to invasive urodynamics to diagnose 4 urodynamically defined conditions. It identifies the most appropriate therapy for the specific condition and objectively monitors the treatment response. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

THE LICK AGN MONITORING PROJECT: BROAD-LINE REGION RADII AND BLACK HOLE MASSES FROM REVERBERATION MAPPING OF Hbeta

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bentz, Misty C.; Walsh, Jonelle L.; Barth, Aaron J.

2009-11-01

We have recently completed a 64-night spectroscopic monitoring campaign at the Lick Observatory 3-m Shane telescope with the aim of measuring the masses of the black holes in 12 nearby (z < 0.05) Seyfert 1 galaxies with expected masses in the range approx10{sup 6}-10{sup 7} M {sub sun} and also the well-studied nearby active galactic nucleus (AGN) NGC 5548. Nine of the objects in the sample (including NGC 5548) showed optical variability of sufficient strength during the monitoring campaign to allow for a time lag to be measured between the continuum fluctuations and the response to these fluctuations in themore » broad Hbeta emission. We present here the light curves for all the objects in this sample and the subsequent Hbeta time lags for the nine objects where these measurements were possible. The Hbeta lag time is directly related to the size of the broad-line region (BLR) in AGNs, and by combining the Hbeta lag time with the measured width of the Hbeta emission line in the variable part of the spectrum, we determine the virial mass of the central supermassive black hole in these nine AGNs. The absolute calibration of the black hole masses is based on the normalization derived by Onken et al., which brings the masses determined by reverberation mapping into agreement with the local M {sub BH}-sigma{sub *}relationship for quiescent galaxies. We also examine the time lag response as a function of velocity across the Hbeta line profile for six of the AGNs. The analysis of four leads to rather ambiguous results with relatively flat time lags as a function of velocity. However, SBS 1116+583A exhibits a symmetric time lag response around the line center reminiscent of simple models for circularly orbiting BLR clouds, and Arp 151 shows an asymmetric profile that is most easily explained by a simple gravitational infall model. Further investigation will be necessary to fully understand the constraints placed on the physical models of the BLR by the velocity-resolved response in these objects.« less

Locking of correlated neural activity to ongoing oscillations

PubMed Central

Helias, Moritz

2017-01-01

Population-wide oscillations are ubiquitously observed in mesoscopic signals of cortical activity. In these network states a global oscillatory cycle modulates the propensity of neurons to fire. Synchronous activation of neurons has been hypothesized to be a separate channel of signal processing information in the brain. A salient question is therefore if and how oscillations interact with spike synchrony and in how far these channels can be considered separate. Experiments indeed showed that correlated spiking co-modulates with the static firing rate and is also tightly locked to the phase of beta-oscillations. While the dependence of correlations on the mean rate is well understood in feed-forward networks, it remains unclear why and by which mechanisms correlations tightly lock to an oscillatory cycle. We here demonstrate that such correlated activation of pairs of neurons is qualitatively explained by periodically-driven random networks. We identify the mechanisms by which covariances depend on a driving periodic stimulus. Mean-field theory combined with linear response theory yields closed-form expressions for the cyclostationary mean activities and pairwise zero-time-lag covariances of binary recurrent random networks. Two distinct mechanisms cause time-dependent covariances: the modulation of the susceptibility of single neurons (via the external input and network feedback) and the time-varying variances of single unit activities. For some parameters, the effectively inhibitory recurrent feedback leads to resonant covariances even if mean activities show non-resonant behavior. Our analytical results open the question of time-modulated synchronous activity to a quantitative analysis. PMID:28604771

The effect of premilking udder preparation on Holstein cows milked 3 times daily.

PubMed

Watters, R D; Schuring, N; Erb, H N; Schukken, Y H; Galton, D M

2012-03-01

Premilking udder preparation (including forestripping and duration of lag time-the time between first tactile stimulation and attachment of milking unit) might influence milking measures such as milking unit on-time, incidence of bimodality, and milk flow rates in Holstein cows milked 3 times daily. Holstein cows (n=786) from an 1,800-cow commercial dairy herd were enrolled under a restricted randomized design to determine the effect of 9 different premilking routines. Lag times were 0, 60, 90, 120, and 240s and included forestripping or no forestripping for a total of 9 treatments (no forestripping for 0 lag time); the study was conducted from February to November 2008. All cow-treatment combinations were compared with the control: predipping plus forestripping and drying with 90s of lag time. Cows were initially assigned to 1 of 3 treatments for a period of 7d and upon completion of the first 7-d period were reassigned to a different treatment until all treatments had been completed. From one treatment period to the next, cows had to switch stimulation method with no restriction on lag time. Cows did not receive all treatments during the duration of the trial. Early- to mid-lactation cows (EML; 17-167 DIM) and late-lactation cows (LL; 174-428 DIM) were housed in 2 different pens. Milk yield was significantly different between dip + forestrip and dip+dry for 2 of the treatments for EML cows compared with dip + forestrip and 90 s of lag-time (DF90); however, this was not thought to be due to treatment because the significant lag times were very different (60 and 240 s) and neither was an extreme value. Milk yield did not differ with treatment for the LL cows. Milking unit on-time did not differ when comparing all treatments for EML with treatment DF90; however, an increase in milking unit on-time occurred when lag time was 60s or less for LL cows. The highest incidence of bimodal milk curves was when lag time = 0 and this was independent of stage of lactation; a lag time of 240 s had the second-highest incidence of bimodal milk curves for EML and LL cows. Milk harvested in the first 2 min was lower for lag times of 0 and 240 s when compared with DF90. Increasing the lag time for all cows appeared to improve overall milking time efficiency (although lag time had no effect on EML cows). Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Daily water and sediment discharges from selected rivers of the eastern United States; a time-series modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzgerald, Michael G.; Karlinger, Michael R.

1983-01-01

Time-series models were constructed for analysis of daily runoff and sediment discharge data from selected rivers of the Eastern United States. Logarithmic transformation and first-order differencing of the data sets were necessary to produce second-order, stationary time series and remove seasonal trends. Cyclic models accounted for less than 42 percent of the variance in the water series and 31 percent in the sediment series. Analysis of the apparent oscillations of given frequencies occurring in the data indicates that frequently occurring storms can account for as much as 50 percent of the variation in sediment discharge. Components of the frequency analysis indicate that a linear representation is reasonable for the water-sediment system. Models that incorporate lagged water discharge as input prove superior to univariate techniques in modeling and prediction of sediment discharges. The random component of the models includes errors in measurement and model hypothesis and indicates no serial correlation. An index of sediment production within or between drain-gage basins can be calculated from model parameters.

Ultrafine and Fine Particulate Matter Inside and Outside of Mechanically Ventilated Buildings.

PubMed

Miller, Shelly L; Facciola, Nick A; Toohey, Darin; Zhai, John

2017-01-28

The objectives of this study were to measure levels of particulate matter (PM) in mechanically ventilated buildings and to improve understanding of filtration requirements to reduce exposure. With the use of an Ultra High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer and an Aerodyne Mass Spectrometer, ultrafine (0.055-0.1 μm) and fine (0.1-0.7 μm) indoor and outdoor PM was measured as a function of time in an office, a university building, and two elementary schools. Indoor particle levels were highly correlated with outdoor levels. Indoor and outdoor number concentrations in Denver were higher than those in Boulder, with the highest number concentrations occurring during summer and fall. The ratio of indoor-to-outdoor (I/O) PM was weakly but positively correlated with the amount of ventilation provided to the indoor environment, did not vary much with particle size (ranged between 0.48 and 0.63 for the entire size range), and was similar for each period of the week (weekend vs. weekday, night vs. day). Regression analyses showed that ultrafine indoor PM baseline concentrations were higher at night from nighttime infiltration. A lag time was observed between outdoor and indoor measurements. Weekday days had the shortest lag time of 11 min, and weekend nighttime lags when the HVAC was not in use were 50 to 148 min. Indoor-outdoor PM concentration plots showed ultrafine PM was more correlated compared to fine, and especially when the HVAC system was on. Finally, AMS data showed that most of the PM was organic, with occasional nitrate events occurring outdoors. During nitrate events, there were less indoor particles detected, indicating a loss of particulate phase nitrate. The results from this study show that improved filtration is warranted in mechanically ventilated buildings, particularly for ultrafine particles, and that nighttime infiltration is significant depending on the building design.

Ultrafine and Fine Particulate Matter Inside and Outside of Mechanically Ventilated Buildings

PubMed Central

Miller, Shelly L.; Facciola, Nick A.; Toohey, Darin; Zhai, John

2017-01-01

The objectives of this study were to measure levels of particulate matter (PM) in mechanically ventilated buildings and to improve understanding of filtration requirements to reduce exposure. With the use of an Ultra High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer and an Aerodyne Mass Spectrometer, ultrafine (0.055–0.1 μm) and fine (0.1–0.7 μm) indoor and outdoor PM was measured as a function of time in an office, a university building, and two elementary schools. Indoor particle levels were highly correlated with outdoor levels. Indoor and outdoor number concentrations in Denver were higher than those in Boulder, with the highest number concentrations occurring during summer and fall. The ratio of indoor-to-outdoor (I/O) PM was weakly but positively correlated with the amount of ventilation provided to the indoor environment, did not vary much with particle size (ranged between 0.48 and 0.63 for the entire size range), and was similar for each period of the week (weekend vs. weekday, night vs. day). Regression analyses showed that ultrafine indoor PM baseline concentrations were higher at night from nighttime infiltration. A lag time was observed between outdoor and indoor measurements. Weekday days had the shortest lag time of 11 min, and weekend nighttime lags when the HVAC was not in use were 50 to 148 min. Indoor-outdoor PM concentration plots showed ultrafine PM was more correlated compared to fine, and especially when the HVAC system was on. Finally, AMS data showed that most of the PM was organic, with occasional nitrate events occurring outdoors. During nitrate events, there were less indoor particles detected, indicating a loss of particulate phase nitrate. The results from this study show that improved filtration is warranted in mechanically ventilated buildings, particularly for ultrafine particles, and that nighttime infiltration is significant depending on the building design. PMID:28134841

Correlational analysis of electroencephalographic and end-tidal carbon dioxide signals during breath-hold exercise.

PubMed

Morelli, Maria Sole; Vanello, Nicola; Giannoni, Alberto; Frijia, Francesca; Hartwig, Valentina; Maestri, Michelangelo; Bonanni, Enrica; Carnicelli, Luca; Positano, Vincenzo; Passino, Claudio; Emdin, Michele; Landini, Luigi

2015-01-01

The central mechanism of breathing control is not totally understood. Several studies evaluated the correlation between electroencephalographic (EEG) power spectra and respiratory signals by performing resting state tasks or adopting hypercapnic/hypoxic stimuli. The observation of brain activity during voluntary breath hold tasks, might be an useful approach to highlight the areas involved in mechanism of breath regulation. Nevertheless, studies of brain activity with EEG could present some limitations due to presence of severe artifacts. When artifact rejection methods, as independent component analysis, cannot reliably clean EEG data, it is necessary to exclude noisy segments. In this study, global field power in the delta band and end-tidal CO2 were derived from EEG and CO2 signals respectively in 4 healthy subjects during a breath-hold task. The cross correlation function between the two signals was estimated taking into account the presence of missing samples. The statistical significance of the correlation coefficients at different time lags was assessed using surrogate data. Some simulations are introduced to evaluate the effect of missing data on the correlational analysis and their results are discussed. Results obtained on subjects show a significant correlation between changes in EEG power in the delta band and end-tidal CO2. Moreover, the changes in end-tidal CO2 were found to precede those of global field power. These results might help to better understand the cortical mechanisms involved in the control of breathing.

Why does lag affect the durability of memory-based automaticity: loss of memory strength or interference?

PubMed

Wilkins, Nicolas J; Rawson, Katherine A

2013-10-01

In Rickard, Lau, and Pashler's (2008) investigation of the lag effect on memory-based automaticity, response times were faster and proportion of trials retrieved was higher at the end of practice for short lag items than for long lag items. However, during testing after a delay, response times were slower and proportion of trials retrieved was lower for short lag items than for long lag items. The current study investigated the extent to which the lag effect on the durability of memory-based automaticity is due to interference or to the loss of memory strength with time. Participants repeatedly practiced alphabet subtraction items in short lag and long lag conditions. After practice, half of the participants were immediately tested and the other half were tested after a 7-day delay. Results indicate that the lag effect on the durability of memory-based automaticity is primarily due to interference. We discuss potential modification of current memory-based processing theories to account for these effects. © 2013.

A paired comparison between human skin and hairless guinea pig skin in vitro permeability and lag time measurements for 6 industrial chemicals.

PubMed

Frasch, H Frederick; Barbero, Ana M

2009-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to measure and compare permeability coefficients (k(p)) and lag times (tau) in human skin and hairless guinea pig (HGP) skin. Paired experiments employed heat-separated epidermal membranes from human and HGP sources mounted on static in vitro diffusion cells. Infinite-dose, saturated aqueous solutions of 6 industrial chemicals were used as donors: aniline, benzene, 1,2- dichloroethane, diethyl phthalate, naphthalene, and tetrachloroethylene. No significant differences were found between human and HGP skin for either k(p) or tau for any of these chemicals (p >or= .24). HGP vs. human k(p) measurements, and HGP vs. human tau measurements, were highly correlated. For k(p), the slope of the linear correlation was close to unity (1.080 +/- 0.182) and the intercept close to 0 (0.015 +/- 0. 029 cm/h), with a correlation coefficient (r(2)) = 0.898. For tau, the slope was also close to unity (0.818 +/- 0.030) and the intercept close to 0 (-0.014 +/- 0.023 h), with r(2) = 0.994. These results suggest that HGP skin may serve as an excellent surrogate for human skin in in vitro dermal penetration studies.

Time-Distance Helioseismology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duvall, Thomas L., Jr.

2010-01-01

Time-distance helioseismology is a method of ambient noise imaging using the solar oscillations. The basic realization that led to time-distance helioseismology was that the temporal cross correlation of the signals at two 'surface' (or photospheric) locations should show a feature at the time lag corresponding to the subsurface travel time between the locations. The temporal cross correlation, as a function of the location separation, is the Fourier transform of the spatio-temporal power spectrum of the solar oscillations, a commonly used function in helioseismology. It is therefore likely the characteristic ridge structure of the correlation function had been seen before without appreciation of its significance. Travel times are measured from the cross correlations. The times are sensitive to a number of important subsurface solar phenomena. These include sound speed variations, flows, and magnetic fields. There has been much interesting progress in the 17 years since the first paper on this subject (Duvall et al., Nature, 1993, 362, 430-432). This progress will be reviewed in this paper.

Electronic trigger for capacitive touchscreen and extension of ISO 15781 standard time lag measurements to smartphones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucher, François-Xavier; Cao, Frédéric; Viard, Clément; Guichard, Frédéric

2014-03-01

We present in this paper a novel capacitive device that stimulates the touchscreen interface of a smartphone (or of any imaging device equipped with a capacitive touchscreen) and synchronizes triggering with the DxO LED Universal Timer to measure shooting time lag and shutter lag according to ISO 15781:2013. The device and protocol extend the time lag measurement beyond the standard by including negative shutter lag, a phenomenon that is more and more commonly found in smartphones. The device is computer-controlled, and this feature, combined with measurement algorithms, makes it possible to automatize a large series of captures so as to provide more refined statistical analyses when, for example, the shutter lag of "zero shutter lag" devices is limited by the frame time as our measurements confirm.

Forecasting vegetation greenness with satellite and climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, Lei; Peters, Albert J.

2004-01-01

A new and unique vegetation greenness forecast (VGF) model was designed to predict future vegetation conditions to three months through the use of current and historical climate data and satellite imagery. The VGF model is implemented through a seasonality-adjusted autoregressive distributed-lag function, based on our finding that the normalized difference vegetation index is highly correlated with lagged precipitation and temperature. Accurate forecasts were obtained from the VGF model in Nebraska grassland and cropland. The regression R2 values range from 0.97-0.80 for 2-12 week forecasts, with higher R2 associated with a shorter prediction. An important application would be to produce real-time forecasts of greenness images.

Method for estimating infection route and speed of influenza.

PubMed

Ijuin, Kazushige; Matsuda, Rieko; Hayashi, Yuzuru

2006-03-01

This paper puts forward a method for estimating the infection route and speed of influenza from the daily variations in the amount of influenza formulations supplied at distant city pharmacies. The cross-correlation function between the time variations at the pharmacies indicates as for the drug sales, how many days a pharmacy lags behind another pharmacy. The comparison of the time lags between the pharmacies can lead to the estimation of the infection route of influenza. Taking into account the distance between the locations of the pharmacies, we can calculate the infection speed of influenza. Three pharmacies located in Tokyo and its vicinity (Saitama and Kanagawa) are taken as an example. The thrust of this paper is to introduce the new strategy that can take full advantage of the information every pharmacy has in possession.

Characterization of the infrared/X-ray subsecond variability for the black hole transient GX 339-4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincentelli, F. M.; Casella, P.; Maccarone, T. J.; Uttley, P.; Gandhi, P.; Belloni, T.; De Marco, B.; Russell, D. M.; Stella, L.; O'Brien, K.

2018-07-01

We present a detailed analysis of the X-ray/IR fast variability of the Black-Hole Transient GX 339-4 during its low/hard state in 2008 August. Thanks to simultaneous high time resolution observations made with the VLT and RXTE, we performed the first characterization of the subsecond variability in the near-infrared band - and of its correlation with the X-rays - for a low-mass X-ray binary, using both time- and frequency-domain techniques. We found a power-law correlation between the X-ray and infrared fluxes when measured on time-scales of 16 s, with a marginally variable slope, steeper than the one found on time-scales of days at similar flux levels. We suggest the variable slope - if confirmed - could be due to the infrared flux being a non-constant combination of both optically thin and optically thick synchrotron emission from the jet, as a result of a variable self-absorption break. From cross spectral analysis, we found an approximately constant infrared time lag of ≈0.1 s, and a very high coherence of ˜90 per cent on time-scales of tens of seconds, slowly decreasing towards higher frequencies. Finally, we report on the first detection of a linear rms-flux relation in the emission from a low-mass X-ray binary jet, on time-scales where little correlation is found between the X-rays and the jet emission itself. This suggests that either the inflow variations and jet IR emission are coupled by a non-linear or time-variable transform, or that the IR rms-flux relation is not transferred from the inflow to the jet, but is an intrinsic property of emission processes in the jet.

Sustained effect of glucagon on body weight and blood glucose: Assessed by continuous glucose monitoring in diabetic rats

PubMed Central

Thomsen, Maria; Rosenkilde, Mette Marie

2018-01-01

Insulin is a vital part of diabetes treatment, whereas glucagon is primarily used to treat insulin-induced hypoglycemia. However, glucagon is suggested to have a central role in the regulation of body weight, which would be beneficial for diabetic patients. Since the glucagon effect on blood glucose is known to be transient, it is relevant to investigate the pharmacodynamics of glucagon after repeated dosing. In the present study, we used telemetry to continuously measure blood glucose in streptozotocin induced diabetic Sprague-Dawley rats. This allowed for a more detailed analysis of glucose regulation compared to intermittent blood sampling. In particular, we evaluated the blood glucose-lowering effect of different insulin doses alone, and in combination with a long acting glucagon analog (LAG). We showed how the effect of the LAG accumulated and persisted over time. Furthermore, we found that addition of the LAG decreased body weight without affecting food intake. In a subsequent study, we focused on the glucagon effect on body weight and food intake during equal glycemic control. In order to obtain comparable maximum blood glucose lowering effect to insulin alone, the insulin dose had to be increased four times in combination with 1 nmol/kg of the LAG. In this set-up the LAG prevented further increase in body weight despite the four times higher insulin-dose. However, the body composition was changed. The insulin group increased both lean and fat mass, whereas the group receiving four times insulin in combination with the LAG only significantly increased the fat mass. No differences were observed in food intake, suggesting a direct effect on energy expenditure by glucagon. Surprisingly, we observed decreased levels of FGF21 in plasma compared to insulin treatment alone. With the combination of insulin and the LAG the blood glucose-lowering effect of insulin was prolonged, which could potentially be beneficial in diabetes treatment. PMID:29558502

Investigating critical effects of variegated lubricants, glidants and hydrophilic additives on lag time of press coated ethylcellulose tablets.

PubMed

Patadia, Riddhish; Vora, Chintan; Mittal, Karan; Mashru, Rajashree

2016-01-01

The research envisaged focuses on vital impacts of variegated lubricants, glidants and hydrophilic additives on lag time of press coated ethylcellulose (EC) tablets using prednisone as a model drug. Several lubricants and glidants such as magnesium stearate, colloidal SiO2, sodium stearyl fumarate, talc, stearic acid, polyethylene glycol (6000) and glyceryl behenate were investigated to understand their effects on lag time by changing their concentrations in outer coat. Further, the effects of hydrophilic additives on lag time were examined for hydroxypropylmethylcellulose (E5), hydroxypropylcellulose (EF and SSL), povidone (K30), copovidone, polyethylene glycol (4000), lactose and mannitol. In vitro drug release testing revealed that each selected lubricant/glidant, if present even at concentration of 0.25% w/w, significantly reduced the lag time of press coated tablets. Specifically, colloidal SiO2 and/or magnesium stearate were detrimental while other lubricants/glidants were relatively less injurious. Among hydrophilic additives, freely water soluble fillers had utmost influence in lag time, whereas, comparatively less impact was observed with polymeric binders. Concisely, glidant and lubricant should be chosen to have minimal impact on lag time and further judicious selection of hydrophilic additives should be exercised for modulating lag time of pulsatile release formulations.

Epidemiology of dengue fever in Hanoi from 2002 to 2010 and its meteorological determinants.

PubMed

Minh An, Dao Thi; Rocklöv, Joacim

2014-01-01

Dengue fever (DF) is a growing public health problem in Vietnam. The disease burden in Vietnam has been increasing for decades. In Hanoi, in contrast to many other regions, extrinsic drivers such as weather have not been proved to be predictive of disease frequency, which limits the usefulness of such factors in an early warning system. The purpose of this research was to review the epidemiology of DF transmission and investigate the role of weather factors contributing to occurrence of DF cases. Monthly data from Hanoi (2002-2010) were used to test the proposed model. Descriptive time-series analysis was conducted. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis assuming a negative binomial distribution was established through several models. The predictors used were lags of 1-3 months previous observations of mean rainfall, mean temperature, DF cases, and their interactions. Descriptive analysis showed that DF occurred annually and seasonally with an increasing time trend in Hanoi. The annual low occurred from December to March followed by a gradual increase from April to July with a peak in September, October. The amplitude of the annual peak varied between years. Statistically significant relationships were estimated at lag 1-3 with rainfall, autocorrelation, and their interaction while temperature was estimated as influential at lag 3 only. For these relationships, the final model determined a correlation of 92% between predicted number of dengue cases and the observed dengue disease frequencies. Although the model performance was good, the findings suggest that other forces related to urbanization, density of population, globalization with increasing transport of people and goods, herd immunity, government vector control capacity, and changes in serotypes are also likely influencing the transmission of DF. Additional research taking into account all of these factors besides climatic factors is needed to help developing and developed countries find the right intervention for controlling DF epidemics, and to set up early warning systems with high sensitivity and specificity. Immediate action to control DF outbreak in Hanoi should include an information, communication, and education program that focuses on training Hanoi residents to more efficiently eliminate stagnant puddles and water containers after each rainfall to limit the vector population growth.

Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses.

PubMed

Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong; Modchang, Charin

2015-01-01

Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another. Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables. In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand. The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function. Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained. We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region. The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.

The mare reproductive loss syndrome and the eastern tent caterpillar: a toxicokinetic/statistical analysis with clinical, epidemiologic, and mechanistic implications.

PubMed

Sebastian, Manu; Gantz, Marie G; Tobin, Thomas; Harkins, J Daniel; Bosken, Jeffrey M; Hughes, Charlie; Harrison, Lenn R; Bernard, William V; Richter, Dana L; Fitzgerald, Terrence D

2003-01-01

During 2001, central Kentucky experienced acute transient epidemics of early and late fetal losses, pericarditis, and unilateral endophthalmitis, collectively referred to as mare reproductive loss syndrome (MRLS). A toxicokinetic/statistical analysis of experimental and field MRLS data was conducted using accelerated failure time (AFT) analysis of abortions following administration of Eastern tent caterpillars (ETCs; 100 or 50 g/day or 100 g of irradiated caterpillars/day) to late-term pregnant mares. In addition, 2001 late-term fetal loss field data were used in the analysis. Experimental data were fitted by AFT analysis at a high (P <.0001) significance. Times to first abortion ("lag time") and abortion rates were dose dependent. Lag times decreased and abortion rates increased exponentially with dose. Calculated dose x response data curves allow interpretation of abortion data in terms of "intubated ETC equivalents." Analysis suggested that field exposure to ETCs in 2001 in central Kentucky commenced on approximately April 27, was initially equivalent to approximately 5 g of intubated ETCs/day, and increased to approximately 30 g/day at the outbreak peak. This analysis accounts for many aspects of the epidemiology, clinical presentations, and manifestations of MRLS. It allows quantitative interpretation of experimental and field MRLS data and has implications for the basic mechanisms underlying MRLS. The results support suggestions that MRLS is caused by exposure to or ingestion of ETCs. The results also show that high levels of ETC exposure produce intense, focused outbreaks of MRLS, closely linked in time and place to dispersing ETCs, as occurred in central Kentucky in 2001. With less intense exposure, lag time is longer and abortions tend to spread out over time and may occur out of phase with ETC exposure, obscuring both diagnosis of this syndrome and the role of the caterpillars.

Performance of eHealth data sources in local influenza surveillance: a 5-year open cohort study.

PubMed

Timpka, Toomas; Spreco, Armin; Dahlström, Örjan; Eriksson, Olle; Gursky, Elin; Ekberg, Joakim; Blomqvist, Eva; Strömgren, Magnus; Karlsson, David; Eriksson, Henrik; Nyce, James; Hinkula, Jorma; Holm, Einar

2014-04-28

There is abundant global interest in using syndromic data from population-wide health information systems--referred to as eHealth resources--to improve infectious disease surveillance. Recently, the necessity for these systems to achieve two potentially conflicting requirements has been emphasized. First, they must be evidence-based; second, they must be adjusted for the diversity of populations, lifestyles, and environments. The primary objective was to examine correlations between data from Google Flu Trends (GFT), computer-supported telenursing centers, health service websites, and influenza case rates during seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks. The secondary objective was to investigate associations between eHealth data, media coverage, and the interaction between circulating influenza strain(s) and the age-related population immunity. An open cohort design was used for a five-year study in a Swedish county (population 427,000). Syndromic eHealth data were collected from GFT, telenursing call centers, and local health service website visits at page level. Data on mass media coverage of influenza was collected from the major regional newspaper. The performance of eHealth data in surveillance was measured by correlation effect size and time lag to clinically diagnosed influenza cases. Local media coverage data and influenza case rates showed correlations with large effect sizes only for the influenza A (A) pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.74, 95% CI .42-.90; P<.001) and the severe seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2011-2012 (r=.79, 95% CI .42-.93; P=.001), with media coverage preceding case rates with one week. Correlations between GFT and influenza case data showed large effect sizes for all outbreaks, the largest being the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.96, 95% CI .88-.99; P<.001). The preceding time lag decreased from two weeks during the first outbreaks to one week from the 2009 A pH1N1 pandemic. Telenursing data and influenza case data showed correlations with large effect sizes for all outbreaks after the seasonal B and A H1 outbreak in 2007-2008, with a time lag decreasing from two weeks for the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.95, 95% CI .82-.98; P<.001) to none for the A p H1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.84, 95% CI .62-.94; P<.001). Large effect sizes were also observed between website visits and influenza case data. Correlations between the eHealth data and influenza case rates in a Swedish county showed large effect sizes throughout a five-year period, while the time lag between signals in eHealth data and influenza rates changed. Further research is needed on analytic methods for adjusting eHealth surveillance systems to shifts in media coverage and to variations in age-group related immunity between virus strains. The results can be used to inform the development of alert-generating eHealth surveillance systems that can be subject for prospective evaluations in routine public health practice.

Performance of eHealth Data Sources in Local Influenza Surveillance: A 5-Year Open Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Spreco, Armin; Dahlström, Örjan; Eriksson, Olle; Gursky, Elin; Ekberg, Joakim; Blomqvist, Eva; Strömgren, Magnus; Karlsson, David; Eriksson, Henrik; Nyce, James; Hinkula, Jorma; Holm, Einar

2014-01-01

Background There is abundant global interest in using syndromic data from population-wide health information systems—referred to as eHealth resources—to improve infectious disease surveillance. Recently, the necessity for these systems to achieve two potentially conflicting requirements has been emphasized. First, they must be evidence-based; second, they must be adjusted for the diversity of populations, lifestyles, and environments. Objective The primary objective was to examine correlations between data from Google Flu Trends (GFT), computer-supported telenursing centers, health service websites, and influenza case rates during seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks. The secondary objective was to investigate associations between eHealth data, media coverage, and the interaction between circulating influenza strain(s) and the age-related population immunity. Methods An open cohort design was used for a five-year study in a Swedish county (population 427,000). Syndromic eHealth data were collected from GFT, telenursing call centers, and local health service website visits at page level. Data on mass media coverage of influenza was collected from the major regional newspaper. The performance of eHealth data in surveillance was measured by correlation effect size and time lag to clinically diagnosed influenza cases. Results Local media coverage data and influenza case rates showed correlations with large effect sizes only for the influenza A (A) pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.74, 95% CI .42-.90; P<.001) and the severe seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2011-2012 (r=.79, 95% CI .42-.93; P=.001), with media coverage preceding case rates with one week. Correlations between GFT and influenza case data showed large effect sizes for all outbreaks, the largest being the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.96, 95% CI .88-.99; P<.001). The preceding time lag decreased from two weeks during the first outbreaks to one week from the 2009 A pH1N1 pandemic. Telenursing data and influenza case data showed correlations with large effect sizes for all outbreaks after the seasonal B and A H1 outbreak in 2007-2008, with a time lag decreasing from two weeks for the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.95, 95% CI .82-.98; P<.001) to none for the A p H1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.84, 95% CI .62-.94; P<.001). Large effect sizes were also observed between website visits and influenza case data. Conclusions Correlations between the eHealth data and influenza case rates in a Swedish county showed large effect sizes throughout a five-year period, while the time lag between signals in eHealth data and influenza rates changed. Further research is needed on analytic methods for adjusting eHealth surveillance systems to shifts in media coverage and to variations in age-group related immunity between virus strains. The results can be used to inform the development of alert-generating eHealth surveillance systems that can be subject for prospective evaluations in routine public health practice. PMID:24776527

Dynamic regression modeling of daily nitrate-nitrogen concentrations in a large agricultural watershed.

PubMed

Feng, Zhujing; Schilling, Keith E; Chan, Kung-Sik

2013-06-01

Nitrate-nitrogen concentrations in rivers represent challenges for water supplies that use surface water sources. Nitrate concentrations are often modeled using time-series approaches, but previous efforts have typically relied on monthly time steps. In this study, we developed a dynamic regression model of daily nitrate concentrations in the Raccoon River, Iowa, that incorporated contemporaneous and lags of precipitation and discharge occurring at several locations around the basin. Results suggested that 95 % of the variation in daily nitrate concentrations measured at the outlet of a large agricultural watershed can be explained by time-series patterns of precipitation and discharge occurring in the basin. Discharge was found to be a more important regression variable than precipitation in our model but both regression parameters were strongly correlated with nitrate concentrations. The time-series model was consistent with known patterns of nitrate behavior in the watershed, successfully identifying contemporaneous dilution mechanisms from higher relief and urban areas of the basin while incorporating the delayed contribution of nitrate from tile-drained regions in a lagged response. The first difference of the model errors were modeled as an AR(16) process and suggest that daily nitrate concentration changes remain temporally correlated for more than 2 weeks although temporal correlation was stronger in the first few days before tapering off. Consequently, daily nitrate concentrations are non-stationary, i.e. of strong memory. Using time-series models to reliably forecast daily nitrate concentrations in a river based on patterns of precipitation and discharge occurring in its basin may be of great interest to water suppliers.

TRACING THE REVERBERATION LAG IN THE HARD STATE OF BLACK HOLE X-RAY BINARIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Marco, B.; Ponti, G.; Nandra, K.

2015-11-20

We report results obtained from a systematic analysis of X-ray lags in a sample of black hole X-ray binaries, with the aim of assessing the presence of reverberation lags and studying their evolution during outburst. We used XMM-Newton and simultaneous Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observations to obtain broadband energy coverage of both the disk and the hard X-ray Comptonization components. In most cases the detection of reverberation lags is hampered by low levels of variability-power signal-to-noise ratio (typically when the source is in a soft state) and/or short exposure times. The most detailed study was possible for GX 339-4more » in the hard state, which allowed us to characterize the evolution of X-ray lags as a function of luminosity in a single source. Over all the sampled frequencies (∼0.05–9 Hz), we observe the hard lags intrinsic to the power-law component, already well known from previous RXTE studies. The XMM-Newton soft X-ray response allows us to detail the disk variability. At low frequencies (long timescales) the disk component always leads the power-law component. On the other hand, a soft reverberation lag (ascribable to thermal reprocessing) is always detected at high frequencies (short timescales). The intrinsic amplitude of the reverberation lag decreases as the source luminosity and the disk fraction increase. This suggests that the distance between the X-ray source and the region of the optically thick disk where reprocessing occurs gradually decreases as GX 339-4 rises in luminosity through the hard state, possibly as a consequence of reduced disk truncation.« less

Statistical performance and information content of time lag analysis and redundancy analysis in time series modeling.

PubMed

Angeler, David G; Viedma, Olga; Moreno, José M

2009-11-01

Time lag analysis (TLA) is a distance-based approach used to study temporal dynamics of ecological communities by measuring community dissimilarity over increasing time lags. Despite its increased use in recent years, its performance in comparison with other more direct methods (i.e., canonical ordination) has not been evaluated. This study fills this gap using extensive simulations and real data sets from experimental temporary ponds (true zooplankton communities) and landscape studies (landscape categories as pseudo-communities) that differ in community structure and anthropogenic stress history. Modeling time with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices (PCNM) approach, the canonical ordination technique (redundancy analysis; RDA) consistently outperformed the other statistical tests (i.e., TLAs, Mantel test, and RDA based on linear time trends) using all real data. In addition, the RDA-PCNM revealed different patterns of temporal change, and the strength of each individual time pattern, in terms of adjusted variance explained, could be evaluated, It also identified species contributions to these patterns of temporal change. This additional information is not provided by distance-based methods. The simulation study revealed better Type I error properties of the canonical ordination techniques compared with the distance-based approaches when no deterministic component of change was imposed on the communities. The simulation also revealed that strong emphasis on uniform deterministic change and low variability at other temporal scales is needed to result in decreased statistical power of the RDA-PCNM approach relative to the other methods. Based on the statistical performance of and information content provided by RDA-PCNM models, this technique serves ecologists as a powerful tool for modeling temporal change of ecological (pseudo-) communities.

Urbanization and Income Inequality in Post-Reform China: A Causal Analysis Based on Time Series Data

PubMed Central

Chen, Guo; Glasmeier, Amy K.; Zhang, Min; Shao, Yang

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the potential causal relationship(s) between China’s urbanization and income inequality since the start of the economic reform. Based on the economic theory of urbanization and income distribution, we analyze the annual time series of China’s urbanization rate and Gini index from 1978 to 2014. The results show that urbanization has an immediate alleviating effect on income inequality, as indicated by the negative relationship between the two time series at the same year (lag = 0). However, urbanization also seems to have a lagged aggravating effect on income inequality, as indicated by positive relationship between urbanization and the Gini index series at lag 1. Although the link between urbanization and income inequality is not surprising, the lagged aggravating effect of urbanization on the Gini index challenges the popular belief that urbanization in post-reform China generally helps reduce income inequality. At deeper levels, our results suggest an urgent need to focus on the social dimension of urbanization as China transitions to the next stage of modernization. Comprehensive social reforms must be prioritized to avoid a long-term economic dichotomy and permanent social segregation. PMID:27433966

Urbanization and Income Inequality in Post-Reform China: A Causal Analysis Based on Time Series Data.

PubMed

Chen, Guo; Glasmeier, Amy K; Zhang, Min; Shao, Yang

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the potential causal relationship(s) between China's urbanization and income inequality since the start of the economic reform. Based on the economic theory of urbanization and income distribution, we analyze the annual time series of China's urbanization rate and Gini index from 1978 to 2014. The results show that urbanization has an immediate alleviating effect on income inequality, as indicated by the negative relationship between the two time series at the same year (lag = 0). However, urbanization also seems to have a lagged aggravating effect on income inequality, as indicated by positive relationship between urbanization and the Gini index series at lag 1. Although the link between urbanization and income inequality is not surprising, the lagged aggravating effect of urbanization on the Gini index challenges the popular belief that urbanization in post-reform China generally helps reduce income inequality. At deeper levels, our results suggest an urgent need to focus on the social dimension of urbanization as China transitions to the next stage of modernization. Comprehensive social reforms must be prioritized to avoid a long-term economic dichotomy and permanent social segregation.

Characteristics of Tremor During the Entire July 2004 Cascadia Episodic Tremor and Slip event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCausland, W. A.; Malone, S.; La Rocca, M.; Creager, K.

2005-12-01

The July 2004 Cascadia episodic tremor and slip (ETS) event was recorded and analyzed using three geographically distributed small aperture seismic arrays (600m) located near Sooke, BC, Sequim, WA, and on Lopez Island, WA. We analyzed the tremor sequence in the 1 to 6 Hz frequency band in overlapping windows (12s length)using zero-lag cross correlation and polarization analysis in order to obtain a continuous record of the back-azimuth, slowness, and particle motion of tremor sources throughout the ETS episode. During periods without tremor, the average interstation correlations for each array range between 0.2 and 0.4, and observed azimuths are randomly distributed. During periods of strong tremor, the average correlation for each array is typically between 0.5 and 0.8, and azimuths are stable over periods of minutes. Observed apparent velocities are greater than 4 km/s and polarization analysis indicates that the wave-field is composed primarily of SH-waves, both of which are consistent with a deep source of shear wave energy. Azimuths and slownesses are consistent with previously obtained hypocentral locations and apparent velocities calculated using the relative arrival times of energy bursts on Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network.

Variability in the Speed of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation as Observed by Aura/MLS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flury, Thomas; Wu, Dong L.; Read, W. G.

2013-01-01

We use Aura/MLS stratospheric water vapour (H2O) measurements as tracer for dynamics and infer interannual variations in the speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) from 2004 to 2011. We correlate one-year time series of H2O in the lower stratosphere at two subsequent pressure levels (68 hPa, approx.18.8 km and 56 hPa, approx 19.9 km at the Equator) and determine the time lag for best correlation. The same calculation is made on the horizontal on the 100 hPa (approx 16.6 km) level by correlating the H2O time series at the Equator with the ones at 40 N and 40 S. From these lag coefficients we derive the vertical and horizontal speeds of the BDC in the tropics and extra-tropics, respectively. We observe a clear interannual variability of the vertical and horizontal branch. The variability reflects signatures of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Our measurements confirm the QBO meridional circulation anomalies and show that the speed variations in the two branches of the BDC are out of phase and fairly well anti-correlated. Maximum ascent rates are found during the QBO easterly phase. We also find that transport of H2O towards the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is on the average two times faster than to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with a mean speed of 1.15m/s at 100 hPa. Furthermore, the speed towards the NH shows much more interannual variability with an amplitude of about 21% whilst the speed towards the SH varies by only 10 %. An amplitude of 21% is also observed in the variability of the ascent rate at the Equator which is on the average 0.2mm/s.

Individual cell lag time distributions of Cronobacter (Enterobacter sakazakii) and impact of pooling samples on its detection in powdered infant formula.

PubMed

Miled, Rabeb Bennour; Guillier, Laurent; Neves, Sandra; Augustin, Jean-Christophe; Colin, Pierre; Besse, Nathalie Gnanou

2011-06-01

Cells of six strains of Cronobacter were subjected to dry stress and stored for 2.5 months at ambient temperature. The individual cell lag time distributions of recovered cells were characterized at 25 °C and 37 °C in non-selective broth. The individual cell lag times were deduced from the times taken by cultures from individual cells to reach an optical density threshold. In parallel, growth curves for each strain at high contamination levels were determined in the same growth conditions. In general, the extreme value type II distribution with a shape parameter fixed to 5 (EVIIb) was the most effective at describing the 12 observed distributions of individual cell lag times. Recently, a model for characterizing individual cell lag time distribution from population growth parameters was developed for other food-borne pathogenic bacteria such as Listeria monocytogenes. We confirmed this model's applicability to Cronobacter by comparing the mean and the standard deviation of individual cell lag times to populational lag times observed with high initial concentration experiments. We also validated the model in realistic conditions by studying growth in powdered infant formula decimally diluted in Buffered Peptone Water, which represents the first enrichment step of the standard detection method for Cronobacter. Individual lag times and the pooling of samples significantly affect detection performances. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of watershed lag times and times of concentration for the Kansas City Area.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

Lag time (TL) and time of concentration (TC) are two related measures of how quickly a stream responds to : runoff-producing rainfall over its watershed. In this report, a general relationship for lag time is derived from the : Manning equation for f...

Multifractal Cross Wavelet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Gao, Xing-Lu; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

Complex systems are composed of mutually interacting components and the output values of these components usually exhibit long-range cross-correlations. Using wavelet analysis, we propose a method of characterizing the joint multifractal nature of these long-range cross correlations, a method we call multifractal cross wavelet analysis (MFXWT). We assess the performance of the MFXWT method by performing extensive numerical experiments on the dual binomial measures with multifractal cross correlations and the bivariate fractional Brownian motions (bFBMs) with monofractal cross correlations. For binomial multifractal measures, we find the empirical joint multifractality of MFXWT to be in approximate agreement with the theoretical formula. For bFBMs, MFXWT may provide spurious multifractality because of the wide spanning range of the multifractal spectrum. We also apply the MFXWT method to stock market indices, and in pairs of index returns and volatilities we find an intriguing joint multifractal behavior. The tests on surrogate series also reveal that the cross correlation behavior, particularly the cross correlation with zero lag, is the main origin of cross multifractality.

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Hα and Hβ Reverberation Measurements from First-year Spectroscopy and Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grier, C. J.; Trump, J. R.; Shen, Yue; Horne, Keith; Kinemuchi, Karen; McGreer, Ian D.; Starkey, D. A.; Brandt, W. N.; Hall, P. B.; Kochanek, C. S.; Chen, Yuguang; Denney, K. D.; Greene, Jenny E.; Ho, L. C.; Homayouni, Y.; I-Hsiu Li, Jennifer; Pei, Liuyi; Peterson, B. M.; Petitjean, P.; Schneider, D. P.; Sun, Mouyuan; AlSayyad, Yusura; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Brinkmann, Jonathan; Brownstein, Joel R.; Bundy, Kevin; Dawson, K. S.; Eftekharzadeh, Sarah; Fernandez-Trincado, J. G.; Gao, Yang; Hutchinson, Timothy A.; Jia, Siyao; Jiang, Linhua; Oravetz, Daniel; Pan, Kaike; Paris, Isabelle; Ponder, Kara A.; Peters, Christina; Rogerson, Jesse; Simmons, Audrey; Smith, Robyn; Wang, Ran

2017-12-01

We present reverberation mapping results from the first year of combined spectroscopic and photometric observations of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project. We successfully recover reverberation time delays between the g+i band emission and the broad Hβ emission line for a total of 44 quasars, and for the broad Hα emission line in 18 quasars. Time delays are computed using the JAVELIN and CREAM software and the traditional interpolated cross-correlation function (ICCF): using well-defined criteria, we report measurements of 32 Hβ and 13 Hα lags with JAVELIN, 42 Hβ and 17 Hα lags with CREAM, and 16 Hβ and eight Hα lags with the ICCF. Lag values are generally consistent among the three methods, though we typically measure smaller uncertainties with JAVELIN and CREAM than with the ICCF, given the more physically motivated light curve interpolation and more robust statistical modeling of the former two methods. The median redshift of our Hβ-detected sample of quasars is 0.53, significantly higher than that of the previous reverberation mapping sample. We find that in most objects, the time delay of the Hα emission is consistent with or slightly longer than that of Hβ. We measure black hole masses using our measured time delays and line widths for these quasars. These black hole mass measurements are mostly consistent with expectations based on the local {M}{BH}-{σ }* relationship, and are also consistent with single-epoch black hole mass measurements. This work increases the current sample size of reverberation-mapped active galaxies by about two-thirds and represents the first large sample of reverberation mapping observations beyond the local universe (z < 0.3).

[The warning model and influence of climatic changes on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha city].

PubMed

Xiao, Hong; Tian, Huai-yu; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhao, Jian; Zhu, Pei-juan; Liu, Ru-chun; Chen, Tian-mu; Dai, Xiang-yu; Lin, Xiao-ling

2011-10-01

To realize the influence of climatic changes on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and to explore the adoption of climatic factors in warning HFRS. A total of 2171 cases of HFRS and the synchronous climatic data in Changsha from 2000 to 2009 were collected to a climate-based forecasting model for HFRS transmission. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was employed to explore the variation trend of the annual incidence of HFRS. Cross-correlations analysis was then adopted to assess the time-lag period between the climatic factors, including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and Multivariate Elño-Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) and the monthly HFRS cases. Finally the time-series Poisson regression model was constructed to analyze the influence of different climatic factors on the HFRS transmission. The annual incidence of HFRS in Changsha between 2000 - 2009 was 13.09/100 000 (755 cases), 9.92/100 000 (578 cases), 5.02/100 000 (294 cases), 2.55/100 000 (150 cases), 1.13/100 000 (67 cases), 1.16/100 000 (70 cases), 0.95/100 000 (58 cases), 1.40/100 000 (87 cases), 0.75/100 000 (47 cases) and 1.02/100 000 (65 cases), respectively. The incidence showed a decline during these years (Z = -5.78, P < 0.01). The results of Poisson regression model indicated that the monthly average temperature (18.00°C, r = 0.26, P < 0.01, 1-month lag period; IRR = 1.02, 95%CI: 1.00 - 1.03, P < 0.01), relative humidity (75.50%, r = 0.62, P < 0.01, 3-month lag period; IRR = 1.03, 95%CI: 1.02 - 1.04, P < 0.01), rainfall (112.40 mm, r = 0.25, P < 0.01, 6-month lag period; IRR = 1.01, 95CI: 1.01 - 1.02, P = 0.02), and MEI (r = 0.31, P < 0.01, 3-month lag period; IRR = 0.77, 95CI: 0.67 - 0.88, P < 0.01) were closely associated with monthly HFRS cases (18.10 cases). Climate factors significantly influence the incidence of HFRS. If the influence of variable-autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend were controlled, the accuracy of forecasting by the time-series Poisson regression model in Changsha would be comparatively high, and we could forecast the incidence of HFRS in advance.

How air pollution influences clinical management of respiratory diseases. A case-crossover study in Milan.

PubMed

Santus, Pierachille; Russo, Antonio; Madonini, Enzo; Allegra, Luigi; Blasi, Francesco; Centanni, Stefano; Miadonna, Antonio; Schiraldi, Gianfranco; Amaducci, Sandro

2012-10-18

Environmental pollution is a known risk factor for multiple diseases and furthermore increases rate of hospitalisations. We investigated the correlation between emergency room admissions (ERAs) of the general population for respiratory diseases and the environmental pollutant levels in Milan, a metropolis in northern Italy. We collected data from 45770 ERAs for respiratory diseases. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to investigate the association between air pollution levels and ERAs for acute respiratory conditions. The effects of air pollutants were investigated at lag 0 to lag 5, lag 0-2 and lag 3-5 in both single and multi-pollutant models, adjusted for daily weather variables. An increase in ozone (O(3)) levels at lag 3-5 was associated with a 78% increase in the number of ERAs for asthma, especially during the warm season. Exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) proved to be a risk factor for pneumonia at lag 0-2 and in the warm season increased the risk of ERA by 66%. A significant association was found between ERAs for COPD exacerbation and levels of sulphur dioxide (SO(2)), CO, nitrate dioxide (NO(2)), and particulate matter (PM(10) and PM(2.5)). The multipollutant model that includes all pollutants showed a significant association between CO (26%) and ERA for upper respiratory tract diseases at lag 0-2. For chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, only CO (OR 1.19) showed a significant association. Exposure to environmental pollution, even at typical low levels, can increase the risk of ERA for acute respiratory diseases and exacerbation of obstructive lung diseases in the general population.

Incidence and risk factors of AIDS-defining cancers in a cohort of HIV-positive adults: Importance of the definition of incident cases.

PubMed

Suárez-García, Inés; Jarrín, Inmaculada; Iribarren, José Antonio; López-Cortés, Luis Fernando; Lacruz-Rodrigo, José; Masiá, Mar; Gómez-Sirvent, Juan Luis; Hernández-Quero, José; Vidal, Francesc; Alejos-Ferreras, Belén; Moreno, Santiago; Del Amo, Julia

2013-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors for the development of AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs); and to investigate the effect of making different assumptions on the definition of incident cases. A multicentre cohort study was designed. Poisson regression was used to assess incidence and risk factors. To account for misclassification, incident cases were defined using lag-times of 0, 14 and 30 days after enrolment. A total of 6393 HIV-positive subjects were included in the study. The incidences of ADCs changed as the lag periods were varied from 0 to 30 days. Different risk factors emerged as the definition of incident cases was changed. For a lag time of 0, the risk of Kaposi sarcoma [KS] and non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL] increased at CD4 counts <200/ml. HAART was associated with lower risk of NHL and KS. Men who had sex with men had a higher risk of KS. KS and NHL were not associated with viral load, gender, or hepatitis B or C. The results were similar for a lag-time of 14 and 30 days; however, hepatitis C was significantly associated with NHL. This analysis shows the importance of the definition of incident cases in cohort studies. Alternative definitions gave different incidence estimates, and may have implications for the analysis of risk factors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of public concern on haze in China and its relationship with air quality in urban areas.

PubMed

Lu, Yaling; Wang, Yuan; Zuo, Jian; Jiang, Hongqiang; Huang, Dacang; Rameezdeen, Raufdeen

2018-10-01

Severe air pollution associated with the rapid urbanization is a pressing issue in China. Moreover, the public awareness of environmental protection in China is awakening, which poses enormous pressure on governments to enforce environmental regulations. The study of environmental problems from the public perspective plays a crucial role in effective environmental governance. The Baidu search engine is the China's largest search engine. The search index of haze based on Baidu search engine reflects the public concern on air quality in China. The aim of this study is to uncover important relationships between public concern and air quality monitoring data based on the case study of haze pollution crisis in China. The results indicate that: (1) the year 2013 is the turning point of the public concern on air quality in China; (2) according to daily data analysis, the search index of haze has increased progressively with increased PM 2.5 concentration with a time lag of 0-4 days and the lag time has a declining tendency from 2013 to 2017; (3) according to annual data analysis, the public concern showed a weak correlation with air quality and they showed an opposite temporal trend. However, when the long-term annual trend was removed, the strong positive correlation emerges between the fluctuation parts of the search index of haze and monitoring data of air quality. This indicates the public is more sensitive to the short-term fluctuation of air quality. The results of this paper provide statistical evidence on the evolution of public concern on air quality from 2013 to 2017. This study will help policy makers to better understand the patterns of the public's perception of environmental problems and consequently improve the government's capability to deal with these challenges. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coordination analysis of players' distribution in football using cross-correlation and vector coding techniques.

PubMed

Moura, Felipe Arruda; van Emmerik, Richard E A; Santana, Juliana Exel; Martins, Luiz Eduardo Barreto; Barros, Ricardo Machado Leite de; Cunha, Sergio Augusto

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the coordination between teams spread during football matches using cross-correlation and vector coding techniques. Using a video-based tracking system, we obtained the trajectories of 257 players during 10 matches. Team spread was calculated as functions of time. For a general coordination description, we calculated the cross-correlation between the signals. Vector coding was used to identify the coordination patterns between teams during offensive sequences that ended in shots on goal or defensive tackles. Cross-correlation showed that opponent teams have a tendency to present in-phase coordination, with a short time lag. During offensive sequences, vector coding results showed that, although in-phase coordination dominated, other patterns were observed. We verified that during the early stages, offensive sequences ending in shots on goal present greater anti-phase and attacking team phase periods, compared to sequences ending in tackles. Results suggest that the attacking team may seek to present a contrary behaviour of its opponent (or may lead the adversary behaviour) in the beginning of the attacking play, regarding to the distribution strategy, to increase the chances of a shot on goal. The techniques allowed detecting the coordination patterns between teams, providing additional information about football dynamics and players' interaction.

[Urban air pollution and children respiratory hospital admissions in Pisa (Italy): a time series and a case-crossover approach].

PubMed

Vigotti, Maria Angela; Serinelli, Maria; Marchini, Laura

2010-01-01

we evaluated the association of daily pollutants' concentrations with daily hospital admissions for respiratory causes in children residents in Pisa during 1998-2002. We compared the results obtained with two methods of statistical analyses. A total of 657 children under ten years and admitted to local hospitals for respiratory diseases (ICD 9: 460-469, 480- 519) were included in the study. both time-series and case-crossover analysis were applied, controlling for temperature, holidays, influenza epidemics,rain and relative humidity. Pollutants' effects are expressed as percentage increase (and 95% CI) of hospital admissions for an increase of 10 μg/m³ of pollutants (1 mg/m³ for CO). with both analyses, children's hospital admissions for respiratory conditions were significantly associated to increasing daily levels of PM10 and CO at different time lags, while no association was found for NO₂ and O₃. In the case-crossover analysis, for a daily increase of 10 μg/m³ in PM10, a significant increment of 8.5% (CI 95% 0.02; 17.6) in children respiratory admissions was observed at lag 0-3. Results were stronger for males and during the warm season. A 1 mg/m³ increment in daily CO levels was associated with an increase of respiratory admissions at lag 0 (20.2%, CI 95% 5.3; 37.2) and at all cumulative lags: the maximum value was observed at lag 0-3 (32.6%, CI 95%8.3; 62.2). Time series analyses provides similar results, although the estimates were lower than with the other method, in terms of percentage increment and length of confidence intervals. this study indicates adverse effects of air pollution on respiratory health of children living in urban environment. The results of both analyses were consistent.

Complementation of Human Papillomavirus Type 16 E6 and E7 by Jagged1-Specific Notch1-Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinase Signaling Involves Pleiotropic Oncogenic Functions Independent of CBF1;Su(H);Lag-1 Activation†

PubMed Central

Veeraraghavalu, Karthikeyan; Subbaiah, Vanitha K.; Srivastava, Sweta; Chakrabarti, Oishee; Syal, Ruchi; Krishna, Sudhir

2005-01-01

We have analyzed the induction and role of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) by Notch signaling in human papillomavirus (HPV)-derived cancers. Jagged1, in contrast to Delta1, is preferentially upregulated in human cervical tumors. Jagged1 and not Delta1 expression sustained in vivo tumors by HPV16 oncogenes in HaCaT cells. Further, Jagged1 expression correlates with the rapid induction of PI3K-mediated epithelial-mesenchymal transition in both HaCaT cells and a human cervical tumor-derived cell line, suggestive of Delta1;Serrate/Jagged;Lag2 ligand-specific roles. Microarray analysis and dominant-negatives reveal that Notch-PI3K oncogenic functions can be independent of CBF1;Su(H);Lag-1 activation and instead relies on Deltex1, an alternative Notch effector. PMID:15919944

Measuring Asymmetric Interactions in Resting State Brain Networks*

PubMed Central

Joshi, Anand A.; Salloum, Ronald; Bhushan, Chitresh; Leahy, Richard M.

2015-01-01

Directed graph representations of brain networks are increasingly being used in brain image analysis to indicate the direction and level of influence among brain regions. Most of the existing techniques for directed graph representations are based on time series analysis and the concept of causality, and use time lag information in the brain signals. These time lag-based techniques can be inadequate for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signal analysis due to the limited time resolution of fMRI as well as the low frequency hemodynamic response. The aim of this paper is to present a novel measure of necessity that uses asymmetry in the joint distribution of brain activations to infer the direction and level of interaction among brain regions. We present a mathematical formula for computing necessity and extend this measure to partial necessity, which can potentially distinguish between direct and indirect interactions. These measures do not depend on time lag for directed modeling of brain interactions and therefore are more suitable for fMRI signal analysis. The necessity measures were used to analyze resting state fMRI data to determine the presence of hierarchy and asymmetry of brain interactions during resting state. We performed ROI-wise analysis using the proposed necessity measures to study the default mode network. The empirical joint distribution of the fMRI signals was determined using kernel density estimation, and was used for computation of the necessity and partial necessity measures. The significance of these measures was determined using a one-sided Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the posterior cingulate cortex plays a central role in the default mode network. PMID:26221690

A generalized expression for lag-time in the gas-phase permeation of hollow tubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, K. K.; Nelson, H. G.; Johnson, D. L.; Hamaker, F. M.

1975-01-01

A generalized expression for the nonsteady-state parameter, lag-time, has been obtained from Fick's second law for gas-phase transport through hollow, cylindrical membranes. This generalized expression is simplified for three limiting cases of practical interest: (1) diffusion controlled transport, (2) phase boundary reaction control at the inlet surface, and (3) phase boundary reaction control at the outlet surface. In all three cases the lag-time expressions were found to be inversely proportional only to the diffusion coefficient and functionally dependent on the membrane radii. Finally, the lag-time expressions were applied to experimentally obtained lag-time data for alpha-phase titanium and alpha-phase iron.

Temporal studies of black hole X-ray transients during outburst decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalemci, Emrah

Galactic black holes (GBH) are a class of astrophysical sources with X-ray emission that is powered by accretion from a companion star. An important goal of GBH research is to understand the accretion structure and the nature of the variability of these systems. The GBHs sometimes show significant changes in the X-ray emission properties, and these changes are called state transitions. The transitions are believed to be caused by variation of the mass accretion rate and changes in accretion geometry. Thus, their study provides valuable information on the nature of the accretion structure. In this thesis work, I present results from studying the spectral and temporal evolution of all GBH transients that have been observed with NASA's Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer during outburst decay. I explore the physical conditions before, during and after the state transition, characterize the quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO) and continuum of power spectral density (PSD) in different energy bands, and study the correlations between spectral and temporal fit parameters. I also analyze the evolution of the cross- spectral parameters during and after the transition. I show that the appearance of the broad band variability is coincident with an increase of power-law flux. The evolution of the characteristic frequencies and the spectral parameters after the transition are consistent with retreating of the inner accretion disk. The energy dependent PSD analysis shows that the level of variability increases with energy when there is significant soft flux from the optically thick accretion disk. The variability level also increases with energy if the absorption column density to the source is high. This may be a result of small angle scatterings of lower energy X-ray photons with the ISM dust around these sources. I find global correlations between the spectral index and three temporal fit parameters: the QPO frequency, the overall level of variability and the integrated time lag. The relation between the spectral index and the time lags are interpreted within the context of the average number of Compton scatterings and the temperature of the scattering medium. During the transitions, the average lag is higher and average coherence is lower. I discuss whether a hybrid accretion model, for which the hot electron corona is the base of an optically thin outflow or a jet, can explain the physical properties during the transition.

Assessing vegetation response to drought in the northern Great Plains using vegetation and drought indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, Lei; Peters, Albert J.

2003-01-01

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) has been widely used to monitor moisture-related vegetation condition. The relationship between vegetation vigor and moisture availability, however, is complex and has not been adequately studied with satellite sensor data. To better understand this relationship, an analysis was conducted on time series of monthly NDVI (1989–2000) during the growing season in the north and central U.S. Great Plains. The NDVI was correlated to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a multiple-time scale meteorological-drought index based on precipitation. The 3-month SPI was found to have the best correlation with the NDVI, indicating lag and cumulative effects of precipitation on vegetation, but the correlation between NDVI and SPI varies significantly between months. The highest correlations occurred during the middle of the growing season, and lower correlations were noted at the beginning and end of the growing season in most of the area. A regression model with seasonal dummy variables reveals that the relationship between the NDVI and SPI is significant in both grasslands and croplands, if this seasonal effect is taken into account. Spatially, the best NDVI–SPI relationship occurred in areas with low soil water-holding capacity. Our most important finding is that NDVI is an effective indicator of vegetation-moisture condition, but seasonal timing should be taken into consideration when monitoring drought with the NDVI.

Short-term association between road traffic noise and healthcare demand generated by Parkinson's disease in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Díaz, Julio; Martínez-Martín, Pablo; Rodríguez-Blázquez, Carmen; Vázquez, Blanca; Forjaz, Maria João; Ortiz, Cristina; Carmona, Rocío; Linares, Cristina

2017-03-23

To analyse whether there is a short-term association between road traffic noise in the city of Madrid and Parkinson's disease (PD)-related demand for healthcare. Time-series analysis (2008-2009) using variables of analysis linked to emergency and daily PD-related demand for healthcare (ICD-10: G20-G21), namely, PD-hospital admissions (HAs), PD-outpatient visits (OVs) and PD-emergency medical calls in Madrid. The noise pollution measurements used were Leqd, equivalent sound level for the daytime hours (from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.), and Leqn, equivalent sound level for night time hours (from 10 p.m. to 8 a.m.) in dB(A). We controlled for temperature, pollution, trends and seasons, and used the Poisson regression model to calculate relative risk (RR). The association between Leqd and HAs was found to be linear. Leqd and Leqn at lag 0.1 and temperature at lags 1 and 5 were the only environmental variables associated with increased PD-related healthcare demand. The RR (lag 0) for Leqd and HA was 1.07 (1.04-1.09), the RR (lag 0) for Leqd and OV was 1.28 (1.12-1.45), and the RR (lags 0.1) for Leqn and emergency medical calls was 1.46 (1.06-2.01). The above results indicate that road traffic noise is a risk factor for PD exacerbation. Measures to reduce noise-exposure levels could result in a lower PD-related healthcare demand. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnections from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation. I Simultaneous relationships. II - Lagged correlations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Chan, P. H.

1983-01-01

Attention is given to the low-frequency variability of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fluctuations, their possible correlations over different parts of the globe, and their relationships with teleconnections obtained from other meteorological parameters, for example, geopotential and temperature fields. Simultaneous relationships with respect to the Southern Oscillation (Namais, 1978; Barnett, 1981) signal and the reference OLR fluctuation over the equatorial central Pacific are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the relative importance of the Southern Oscillation (SO) signal over preferred regions. Using lag cross-correlation statistics, possible lagged relationships between the tropics and midlatitudes and their relationships with the SO are then investigated. Only features that are consistent with present knowledge of the dynamics of the system are emphasized. Certain features which may not meet rigorous statistical significance tests but yet are either expected a priori from independent observations or are predicted from dynamical theories are also explored.

Exhaustion of Activated CD8 T Cells Predicts Disease Progression in Primary HIV-1 Infection

PubMed Central

Hickling, Stephen; Hurst, Jacob; Meyerowitz, Jodi; Willberg, Christian B.; Robinson, Nicola; Brown, Helen; Kinloch, Sabine; Babiker, Abdel; Nwokolo, Nneka; Fox, Julie; Fidler, Sarah; Phillips, Rodney; Frater, John

2016-01-01

The rate at which HIV-1 infected individuals progress to AIDS is highly variable and impacted by T cell immunity. CD8 T cell inhibitory molecules are up-regulated in HIV-1 infection and associate with immune dysfunction. We evaluated participants (n = 122) recruited to the SPARTAC randomised clinical trial to determine whether CD8 T cell exhaustion markers PD-1, Lag-3 and Tim-3 were associated with immune activation and disease progression. Expression of PD-1, Tim-3, Lag-3 and CD38 on CD8 T cells from the closest pre-therapy time-point to seroconversion was measured by flow cytometry, and correlated with surrogate markers of HIV-1 disease (HIV-1 plasma viral load (pVL) and CD4 T cell count) and the trial endpoint (time to CD4 count <350 cells/μl or initiation of antiretroviral therapy). To explore the functional significance of these markers, co-expression of Eomes, T-bet and CD39 was assessed. Expression of PD-1 on CD8 and CD38 CD8 T cells correlated with pVL and CD4 count at baseline, and predicted time to the trial endpoint. Lag-3 expression was associated with pVL but not CD4 count. For all exhaustion markers, expression of CD38 on CD8 T cells increased the strength of associations. In Cox models, progression to the trial endpoint was most marked for PD-1/CD38 co-expressing cells, with evidence for a stronger effect within 12 weeks from confirmed diagnosis of PHI. The effect of PD-1 and Lag-3 expression on CD8 T cells retained statistical significance in Cox proportional hazards models including antiretroviral therapy and CD4 count, but not pVL as co-variants. Expression of ‘exhaustion’ or ‘immune checkpoint’ markers in early HIV-1 infection is associated with clinical progression and is impacted by immune activation and the duration of infection. New markers to identify exhausted T cells and novel interventions to reverse exhaustion may inform the development of novel immunotherapeutic approaches. PMID:27415828

Evaluation of Multi-Scale Climate Effects on Annual Recruitment Levels of the Japanese Eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan

PubMed Central

Tzeng, Wann-Nian; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Han, Yu-San; Hsu, Chih-Chieh; Chang, Chih-Wei; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hsieh, Chih-hao

2012-01-01

Long-term (1967–2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean–atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system. PMID:22383976

Evaluation of multi-scale climate effects on annual recruitment levels of the Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan.

PubMed

Tzeng, Wann-Nian; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Han, Yu-San; Hsu, Chih-Chieh; Chang, Chih-Wei; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hsieh, Chih-Hao

2012-01-01

Long-term (1967-2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean-atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system.

Fungal mycelia show lag time before re-growth on endogenous carbon.

PubMed

Pollack, Judith K; Li, Zheng Jian; Marten, Mark R

2008-06-15

Nutrient starvation is a common occurrence for filamentous fungi. To better understand the effects of starvation, we used a parallel plate flow chamber to study individual fungal mycelia when subjected to a step change in glucose concentration. We report the presence of a finite "lag time" in starved mycelia during which they ceased to grow/extend while switching from growth on exogenous carbon to re-growth on endogenous carbon. This lag time precedes other morphological or physiological changes such as change in growth rate (50-70% reduction), vacuolation (up to 16%), and decreased hyphal diameter (almost 50% reduction). Data suggests that during lag time, vacuolar degradation produces sufficient endogenous carbon to support survival and restart hyphal extension. Lag time is inversely related to the size of the mycelium at the time of starvation, which suggests a critical flow of endogenous carbon to the apical tip. We present a mathematical model consistent with our experimental observations that relate lag time, area, and flow of endogenous carbon. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Life Cycle of Midlatitude Deep Convective Systems in a Lagrangian Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feng, Zhe; Dong, Xiquan; Xie, Baike; McFarlane, Sally A.; Kennedy, Aaron; Lin, Bing; Minnis, Patrick

2012-01-01

Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) consist of intense convective cores (CC), large stratiform rain (SR) regions, and extensive non-precipitating anvil clouds (AC). This study focuses on the evolution of these three components and the factors that affect convective AC production. An automated satellite tracking method is used in conjunction with a recently developed multi-sensor hybrid classification to analyze the evolution of DCS structure in a Lagrangian framework over the central United States. Composite analysis from 4221 tracked DCSs during two warm seasons (May-August, 2010-2011) shows that maximum system size correlates with lifetime, and longer-lived DCSs have more extensive SR and AC. Maximum SR and AC area lag behind peak convective intensity and the lag increases linearly from approximately 1-hour for short-lived systems to more than 3-hours for long-lived ones. The increased lag, which depends on the convective environment, suggests that changes in the overall diabatic heating structure associated with the transition from CC to SR and AC could prolong the system lifetime by sustaining stratiform cloud development. Longer-lasting systems are associated with up to 60% higher mid-tropospheric relative humidity and up to 40% stronger middle to upper tropospheric wind shear. Regression analysis shows that the areal coverage of thick AC is strongly correlated with the size of CC, updraft strength, and SR area. Ambient upper tropospheric wind speed and wind shear also play an important role for convective AC production where for systems with large AC (radius greater than 120-km) they are 24% and 20% higher, respectively, than those with small AC (radius=20 km).

Differential modulation of auditory responses to attended and unattended speech in different listening conditions

PubMed Central

Kong, Ying-Yee; Mullangi, Ala; Ding, Nai

2014-01-01

This study investigates how top-down attention modulates neural tracking of the speech envelope in different listening conditions. In the quiet conditions, a single speech stream was presented and the subjects paid attention to the speech stream (active listening) or watched a silent movie instead (passive listening). In the competing speaker (CS) conditions, two speakers of opposite genders were presented diotically. Ongoing electroencephalographic (EEG) responses were measured in each condition and cross-correlated with the speech envelope of each speaker at different time lags. In quiet, active and passive listening resulted in similar neural responses to the speech envelope. In the CS conditions, however, the shape of the cross-correlation function was remarkably different between the attended and unattended speech. The cross-correlation with the attended speech showed stronger N1 and P2 responses but a weaker P1 response compared with the cross-correlation with the unattended speech. Furthermore, the N1 response to the attended speech in the CS condition was enhanced and delayed compared with the active listening condition in quiet, while the P2 response to the unattended speaker in the CS condition was attenuated compared with the passive listening in quiet. Taken together, these results demonstrate that top-down attention differentially modulates envelope-tracking neural activity at different time lags and suggest that top-down attention can both enhance the neural responses to the attended sound stream and suppress the responses to the unattended sound stream. PMID:25124153

Interpretation of a compositional time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolosana-Delgado, R.; van den Boogaart, K. G.

2012-04-01

Common methods for multivariate time series analysis use linear operations, from the definition of a time-lagged covariance/correlation to the prediction of new outcomes. However, when the time series response is a composition (a vector of positive components showing the relative importance of a set of parts in a total, like percentages and proportions), then linear operations are afflicted of several problems. For instance, it has been long recognised that (auto/cross-)correlations between raw percentages are spurious, more dependent on which other components are being considered than on any natural link between the components of interest. Also, a long-term forecast of a composition in models with a linear trend will ultimately predict negative components. In general terms, compositional data should not be treated in a raw scale, but after a log-ratio transformation (Aitchison, 1986: The statistical analysis of compositional data. Chapman and Hill). This is so because the information conveyed by a compositional data is relative, as stated in their definition. The principle of working in coordinates allows to apply any sort of multivariate analysis to a log-ratio transformed composition, as long as this transformation is invertible. This principle is of full application to time series analysis. We will discuss how results (both auto/cross-correlation functions and predictions) can be back-transformed, viewed and interpreted in a meaningful way. One view is to use the exhaustive set of all possible pairwise log-ratios, which allows to express the results into D(D - 1)/2 separate, interpretable sets of one-dimensional models showing the behaviour of each possible pairwise log-ratios. Another view is the interpretation of estimated coefficients or correlations back-transformed in terms of compositions. These two views are compatible and complementary. These issues are illustrated with time series of seasonal precipitation patterns at different rain gauges of the USA. In this data set, the proportion of annual precipitation falling in winter, spring, summer and autumn is considered a 4-component time series. Three invertible log-ratios are defined for calculations, balancing rainfall in autumn vs. winter, in summer vs. spring, and in autumn-winter vs. spring-summer. Results suggest a 2-year correlation range, and certain oscillatory behaviour in the last balance, which does not occur in the other two.

Computer program for post-flight evaluation of the control surface response for an attitude controlled missile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knauber, R. N.

1982-01-01

A FORTRAN IV coded computer program is presented for post-flight analysis of a missile's control surface response. It includes preprocessing of digitized telemetry data for time lags, biases, non-linear calibration changes and filtering. Measurements include autopilot attitude rate and displacement gyro output and four control surface deflections. Simple first order lags are assumed for the pitch, yaw and roll axes of control. Each actuator is also assumed to be represented by a first order lag. Mixing of pitch, yaw and roll commands to four control surfaces is assumed. A pseudo-inverse technique is used to obtain the pitch, yaw and roll components from the four measured deflections. This program has been used for over 10 years on the NASA/SCOUT launch vehicle for post-flight analysis and was helpful in detecting incipient actuator stall due to excessive hinge moments. The program is currently set up for a CDC CYBER 175 computer system. It requires 34K words of memory and contains 675 cards. A sample problem presented herein including the optional plotting requires eleven (11) seconds of central processor time.

Is there a quasi-biennial oscillation in tropical deep convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collimore, Christopher C.; Hitchman, Matthew H.; Martin, David W.

We investigate the possibility that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) modulates deep convection in the tropics. Interannual variations of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the tropics during 1975-87 are compared with stratospheric zonal winds at Singapore (a measure of the QBO), and with the Tahiti-Darwin sea level pressure difference (the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI). A monthly time series of anomalous OLR was constructed for regions of consistently low OLR, thus targeting areas of chronic deep convection. This “chronic cold” index and the SOI correlate at -0.6 for zero lag. The “chronic cold” index correlates with 30 hPa Singapore winds at +0.3 and with 50 hPa-70 hPa wind differences at +0.4, both near zero lag. These results are not inconsistent with the hypothesis that deep convection may be enhanced in chronically cold areas when QBO westward shear exists in the lower stratosphere, and diminished during eastward shear.

Temporal evolution of photon energy emitted from two-component advective flows: origin of time lag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Arka; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Ghosh, Himadri

2017-12-01

X-ray time lag of black hole candidates contains important information regarding the emission geometry. Recently, study of time lags from observational data revealed very intriguing properties. To investigate the real cause of this lag behavior with energy and spectral states, we study photon paths inside a two-component advective flow (TCAF) which appears to be a satisfactory model to explain the spectral and timing properties. We employ the Monte Carlo simulation technique to carry out the Comptonization process. We use a relativistic thick disk in Schwarzschild geometry as the CENtrifugal pressure supported BOundary Layer (CENBOL) which is the Compton cloud. In TCAF, this is the post-shock region of the advective component. Keplerian disk on the equatorial plane which is truncated at the inner edge i.e. at the outer boundary of the CENBOL, acts as the soft photon source. Ray-tracing code is employed to track the photons to a distantly located observer. We compute the cumulative time taken by a photon during Comptonization, reflection and following the curved geometry on the way to the observer. Time lags between various hard and soft bands have been calculated. We study the variation of time lags with accretion rates, CENBOL size and inclination angle. Time lags for different energy channels are plotted for different inclination angles. The general trend of variation of time lag with QPO frequency and energy as observed in satellite data is reproduced.

A study of helicopter stability and control including blade dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Xin; Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

1988-01-01

A linearized model of rotorcraft dynamics has been developed through the use of symbolic automatic equation generating techniques. The dynamic model has been formulated in a unique way such that it can be used to analyze a variety of rotor/body coupling problems including a rotor mounted on a flexible shaft with a number of modes as well as free-flight stability and control characteristics. Direct comparison of the time response to longitudinal, lateral and directional control inputs at various trim conditions shows that the linear model yields good to very good correlation with flight test. In particular it is shown that a dynamic inflow model is essential to obtain good time response correlation, especially for the hover trim condition. It also is shown that the main rotor wake interaction with the tail rotor and fixed tail surfaces is a significant contributor to the response at translational flight trim conditions. A relatively simple model for the downwash and sidewash at the tail surfaces based on flat vortex wake theory is shown to produce good agreement. Then, the influence of rotor flap and lag dynamics on automatic control systems feedback gain limitations is investigated with the model. It is shown that the blade dynamics, especially lagging dynamics, can severly limit the useable values of the feedback gain for simple feedback control and that multivariable optimal control theory is a powerful tool to design high gain augmentation control system. The frequency-shaped optimal control design can offer much better flight dynamic characteristics and a stable margin for the feedback system without need to model the lagging dynamics.

An experimental investigation of the flap-lag-torsion aeroelastic stability of a small-scale hingeless helicopter rotor in hover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharpe, David L.

1986-01-01

A small scale, 1.92 m diam, torsionally soft, hingeless helicopter rotor was investigated in hover to determine isolated rotor stability characteristics. The two-bladed, untwisted rotor was tested on a rigid test stand at tip speeds up to 101 m/sec. The rotor mode of interest is the lightly damped lead-lag mode. The dimensionless lead-lag frequency of the mode is approximately 1.5 at the highest tip speed. The hub was designed to allow variation in precone, blade droop, pitch control stiffness, and blade pitch angle. Measurements of modal frequency and damping were obtained for several combinations of these hub parameters at several values of rotor speed. Steady blade bending moments were also measured. The lead-lag damping measurements were found to agree well with theoretical predictions for low values of blade pitch angle. The test data confirmed the predicted effects of precone, droop, and pitch control stiffness parameters on lead-lag damping. The correlation between theory and experiment was found to be poor for the mid-to-high range of pitch angles where the theory substantially overpredicted the experimental lead-lag damping. The poor correlation in the mid-to-high blade pitch angle range is attributed to low Reynolds number nonlinear aerodynamics effects not included in the theory. The experimental results also revealed an asymmetry in lead-lag damping between positive and negative thrust conditions.

ON THE ORIGIN OF THE {gamma}-RAY/OPTICAL LAGS IN LUMINOUS BLAZARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janiak, Mateusz; Sikora, Marek; Moderski, Rafal

2012-12-01

Blazars are strongly variable sources that occasionally show spectacular flares visible in various energy bands. These flares are often, but not always, correlated. In a number of cases, the peaks of optical flares are found to be somewhat delayed with respect to the {gamma}-ray peaks. One notable example of such a delay was found in 3C 279 by Hayashida et al. and interpreted as a result of steeper drop with a distance of the energy density of an external radiation field than of the magnetic energy density. In this paper, we demonstrate that, in general, depending on the respective energymore » density profile along the jet, such lags can have both signs and that they can take place for any ratio of these energy densities. We study the dependence of such lags on the ratio of these energy densities at a distance of a maximal energy dissipation in a jet, on their gradients, as well as on the time profile of the relativistic electron injection within the moving source. We show how prominent such lags can be, and their expected timescales. We suggest that studies of such lags can provide a powerful tool to resolve the structure of relativistic jets and their radiative environment. As an example we model the lag observed in 3C 279, showing that in this object the flare is produced at a distance of a few parsecs from the central black hole, consistent with our previous inferences based on the spectra and optical polarization properties.« less

Investigating effects of hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) molecular weight grades on lag time of press-coated ethylcellulose tablets.

PubMed

Patadia, Riddhish; Vora, Chintan; Mittal, Karan; Mashru, Rajashree

2016-11-01

The research undertaken exemplifies the effects of hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) molecular weight (MW) grades of on lag time of press-coated ethylcellulose (EC) tablets. The formulation comprised an immediate release core (containing prednisone as a model drug) surrounded by compression coating with variegated EC-HPMC blends. Five selected HPMC grades (E5, E15, E50, K100LV and K4M) were explored at three different concentrations (10% w/w, 20% w/w and 30% w/w in outer coat) to understand their effects on lag time and drug release. In vitro drug release testing demonstrated that, with increase in concentration of E5 and E15, up to 30% w/w, the mean lag time decreased progressively; whereas with remaining grades, the mean lag time initially decreased up to 20% w/w level and thereafter increased for 30% w/w level. Importantly, with increase in HPMC concentration in the outer coat, the variability in lag time (%RSD; n = 6) was decreased for each of E5, E15 and E50, whereas increased for K100LV and K4M. In general, the variability in lag time was increased with increase in HPMC MW at studied concentration levels. Markedly, tablets with 30% w/w K4M in outer coat exhibited slight premature release (before the rupture of outer coat) along with high variability in lag time. Overall, the study concluded that low MW HPMCs (E5, E15 and E50) were found rather efficient than higher MW HPMCs for developing robust EC-based press-coated pulsatile release formulations where precise lag time followed by sharp burst release is desired.

Hydrophilic excipients modulate the time lag of time-controlled disintegrating press-coated tablets.

PubMed

Lin, Shan-Yang; Li, Mei-Jane; Lin, Kung-Hsu

2004-08-16

An oral press-coated tablet was developed by means of direct compression to achieve the time-controlled disintegrating or rupturing function with a distinct predetermined lag time. This press-coated tablet containing sodium diclofenac in the inner core was formulated with an outer shell by different weight ratios of hydrophobic polymer of micronized ethylcellulose (EC) powder and hydrophilic excipients such as spray-dried lactose (SDL) or hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC). The effect of the formulation of an outer shell comprising both hydrophobic polymer and hydrophilic excipients on the time lag of drug release was investigated. The release profile of the press-coated tablet exhibited a time period without drug release (time lag) followed by a rapid and complete release phase, in which the outer shell ruptured or broke into 2 halves. The lag phase was markedly dependent on the weight ratios of EC/SDL or EC/HPMC in the outer shell. Different time lags of the press-coated tablets from 1.0 to 16.3 hours could be modulated by changing the type and amount of the excipients. A semilogarithmic plot of the time lag of the tablet against the weight ratios of EC/SDL or EC/HPMC in the outer shell demonstrated a good linear relationship, with r = 0.976 and r = 0.982, respectively. The predetermined time lag prior to the drug release from a press-coated tablet prepared by using a micronized EC as a retarding coating shell can be adequately scheduled with the addition of hydrophilic excipients according to the time or site requirements.

Fluctuations of the experience of togetherness within the team over time: task-cohesion and shared understanding throughout a sporting regular season.

PubMed

Bourbousson, Jérôme; Fortes-Bourbousson, Marina

2017-06-01

Based on a diagnosis action research design, the present study assessed the fluctuations of the team experience of togetherness. Reported experiences of 12 basketball team members playing in the under-18 years old national championship were studied during a four-month training and competitive period. Time series analysis (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average procedures) served to describe temporal properties of the way in which the fluctuations of task-cohesion and shared understanding were step-by-step experienced over time, respectively. Correlations, running-correlations and cross-lagged correlations were used to describe the temporal links that governed the relationships between both phenomena. The results indicated that the task-cohesion dimensions differed mainly for shared understanding dynamics in that their time fluctuations were not embedded in external events, and that the variations in shared understanding tend to precede 'individual attractions to the task' variations with seven team practical sessions. This study argues for further investigation of how 'togetherness' is experienced alternatively as a feeling of cohesion or shared understanding. Practitioner Summary: The present action research study investigated the experience that the team members have to share information during practice, and the subsequent benefices on team cohesion. Results call for specific interventions that make team members accept the fluctuating nature of team phenomena, to help them maintaining their daily efforts.

Dynamic RSA: Examining parasympathetic regulatory dynamics via vector-autoregressive modeling of time-varying RSA and heart period.

PubMed

Fisher, Aaron J; Reeves, Jonathan W; Chi, Cyrus

2016-07-01

Expanding on recently published methods, the current study presents an approach to estimating the dynamic, regulatory effect of the parasympathetic nervous system on heart period on a moment-to-moment basis. We estimated second-to-second variation in respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in order to estimate the contemporaneous and time-lagged relationships among RSA, interbeat interval (IBI), and respiration rate via vector autoregression. Moreover, we modeled these relationships at lags of 1 s to 10 s, in order to evaluate the optimal latency for estimating dynamic RSA effects. The IBI (t) on RSA (t-n) regression parameter was extracted from individual models as an operationalization of the regulatory effect of RSA on IBI-referred to as dynamic RSA (dRSA). Dynamic RSA positively correlated with standard averages of heart rate and negatively correlated with standard averages of RSA. We propose that dRSA reflects the active downregulation of heart period by the parasympathetic nervous system and thus represents a novel metric that provides incremental validity in the measurement of autonomic cardiac control-specifically, a method by which parasympathetic regulatory effects can be measured in process. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Effects of timber harvesting on the lag time of Caspar Creek watershed

Treesearch

Karen Hardison Sendek

1985-01-01

Abstract - Hydrograph lag time was analyzed to determine changes after road construction and after selective, tractor-yarded logging in a Caspar Creek watershed, Mendocino County, California. The paired watershed technique was used. Hydrograph lag time for each storm was the time separation between the midpoint of precipitation and the time coordinate of the runoff...

Antioxidant pool in beer and kinetics of EPR spin-trapping.

PubMed

Kocherginsky, Nikolai M; Kostetski, Yuri Yu; Smirnov, Alex I

2005-08-24

The kinetics of spin-trap adduct formation in beer oxidation exhibits an induction period if the reaction is carried out at elevated temperatures and in the presence of air. This lag period lasts until the endogenous antioxidants are almost completely depleted, and its duration is used as an indicator of the flavor stability and shelf life of beer. This paper demonstrates that the total kinetics of the process can be characterized by three parameters-the lag period, the rate of spin-trap adduct formation, and, finally, the steady-state spin-adduct concentration. A steady-state chain reaction mechanism is described, and quantitative estimates of the main kinetic parameters such as the initiation rate, antioxidant pool, effective content of organic molecules participating in the chain reactions, and the rate constant of the 1-hydroxyethyl radical EtOH(*) spin-adduct disappearance are given. An additional new dimensionless parameter is suggested to characterize the antioxidant pool-the product of the lag time and the rate of spin-trap radical formation immediately after the lag time, normalized by the steady-state concentration of the adducts. The results of spin-tapping EPR experiments are compared with the nitroxide reduction kinetics measured in the same beer samples. It is shown that although the kinetics of nitroxide reduction in beer can be used to evaluate the reducing power of beer, the latter parameter does not correlate with the antioxidant pool. The relationship of free radical processes, antioxidant pool, reducing power, and beer staling is discussed.

Kaplan-Meier Meets Chemical Kinetics: Intrinsic Rate of SOD1 Amyloidogenesis Decreased by Subset of ALS Mutations and Cannot Fully Explain Age of Disease Onset.

PubMed

Abdolvahabi, Alireza; Shi, Yunhua; Rasouli, Sanaz; Croom, Corbin M; Aliyan, Amir; Martí, Angel A; Shaw, Bryan F

2017-06-21

Over 150 mutations in SOD1 (superoxide dismutase-1) cause amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), presumably by accelerating SOD1 amyloidogenesis. Like many nucleation processes, SOD1 fibrillization is stochastic (in vitro), which inhibits the determination of aggregation rates (and obscures whether rates correlate with patient phenotypes). Here, we diverged from classical chemical kinetics and used Kaplan-Meier estimators to quantify the probability of apo-SOD1 fibrillization (in vitro) from ∼10 3 replicate amyloid assays of wild-type (WT) SOD1 and nine ALS variants. The probability of apo-SOD1 fibrillization (expressed as a Hazard ratio) is increased by certain ALS-linked SOD1 mutations but is decreased or remains unchanged by other mutations. Despite this diversity, Hazard ratios of fibrillization correlated linearly with (and for three mutants, approximately equaled) Hazard ratios of patient survival (R 2 = 0.67; Pearson's r = 0.82). No correlation exists between Hazard ratios of fibrillization and age of initial onset of ALS (R 2 = 0.09). Thus, Hazard ratios of fibrillization might explain rates of disease progression but not onset. Classical kinetic metrics of fibrillization, i.e., mean lag time and propagation rate, did not correlate as strongly with phenotype (and ALS mutations did not uniformly accelerate mean rate of nucleation or propagation). A strong correlation was found, however, between mean ThT fluorescence at lag time and patient survival (R 2 = 0.93); oligomers of SOD1 with weaker fluorescence correlated with shorter survival. This study suggests that SOD1 mutations trigger ALS by altering a property of SOD1 or its oligomers other than the intrinsic rate of amyloid nucleation (e.g., oligomer stability; rates of intercellular propagation; affinity for membrane surfaces; and maturation rate).

Modeling the Lead(Pb) concentrations in corals in the Singapore Straits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Lee, J.; Nurhati, I. S.; Switzer, A. D.; Boyle, E. A.

2012-12-01

The leaded gasoline has dominated the global Pb emission and has imposed serious health problems in the past 50 years. While countries in North America and Western Europe phased out leaded gasoline in 1970s and early 1980s, many fast developing Asian countries have been using it until recently. In order to monitor anthropogenic Pb variations in marine environments, the history of seawater Pb in the Singapore Strait -- one of the world's busiest shipping lanes has been reconstructed from a 50 year-long coral core (Lee et al., unpublished record). A 50-year-long coral Pb/Ca record from the Singapore Strait was measured using isotope dilution ICPMS (for Pb) and FAAS (for Ca). Here, we propose a statistical model to correlate lead measured in the Singapore coral (Pb/Ca) and the possible Pb sources in the region. The measurement reveals that the Pb in coral is only weakly correlated with Pb the gasoline emission from the neighboring countries (i.e. Singapore, Malaysia, and Batam Indonesia). Such weak correlation implies that either the gasoline may not be a dominating source to Singapore Strait or the transport process of the Pb (either atmospheric or oceanographic) in this region complicates the interpretation. In this case, we tested a number of statistical correlations to understand the possible roles of leaded gasoline emission, rainfall, sediment flux and the residence time of the Pb inferred by the Pb210 data. From our current tests, a relatively high correlation appeared between the Pb in coral and the local annual precipitation, with a lag time of 2 years. The 2 year lag is somewhat surprising and we expect to elaborate further by correlating the Pb in coral with the Pb isotope signatures in an attempt to identify possible sources.;

Delineation of marine ecosystem zones in the northern Arabian Sea during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shalin, Saleem; Samuelsen, Annette; Korosov, Anton; Menon, Nandini; Backeberg, Björn C.; Pettersson, Lasse H.

2018-03-01

The spatial and temporal variability of marine autotrophic abundance, expressed as chlorophyll concentration, is monitored from space and used to delineate the surface signature of marine ecosystem zones with distinct optical characteristics. An objective zoning method is presented and applied to satellite-derived Chlorophyll a (Chl a) data from the northern Arabian Sea (50-75° E and 15-30° N) during the winter months (November-March). Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to statistically delineate the Chl a into zones with similar surface distribution patterns and temporal variability. The PCA identifies principal components of variability and the CA splits these into zones based on similar characteristics. Based on the temporal variability of the Chl a pattern within the study area, the statistical clustering revealed six distinct ecological zones. The obtained zones are related to the Longhurst provinces to evaluate how these compared to established ecological provinces. The Chl a variability within each zone was then compared with the variability of oceanic and atmospheric properties viz. mixed-layer depth (MLD), wind speed, sea-surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), nitrate and dust optical thickness (DOT) as an indication of atmospheric input of iron to the ocean. The analysis showed that in all zones, peak values of Chl a coincided with low SST and deep MLD. The rate of decrease in SST and the deepening of MLD are observed to trigger the algae bloom events in the first four zones. Lagged cross-correlation analysis shows that peak Chl a follows peak MLD and SST minima. The MLD time lag is shorter than the SST lag by 8 days, indicating that the cool surface conditions might have enhanced mixing, leading to increased primary production in the study area. An analysis of monthly climatological nitrate values showed increased concentrations associated with the deepening of the mixed layer. The input of iron seems to be important in both the open-ocean and coastal areas of the northern and north-western parts of the northern Arabian Sea, where the seasonal variability of the Chl a pattern closely follows the variability of iron deposition.

Associations of daily pediatric asthma emergency department visits with air pollution in Newark, NJ: utilizing time-series and case-crossover study designs.

PubMed

Gleason, Jessie A; Fagliano, Jerald A

2015-10-01

Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases affecting children. This study assesses the associations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with pediatric emergency department visits in the urban environment of Newark, NJ. Two study designs were utilized and evaluated for usability. We obtained daily emergency department visits among children aged 3-17 years with a primary diagnosis of asthma during April to September for 2004-2007. Both a time-stratified case-crossover study design with bi-directional control sampling and a time-series study design were utilized. Lagged effects (1-d through 5-d lag, 3-d average, and 5-d average) of ozone and PM2.5 were explored and a dose-response analysis comparing the bottom 5th percentile of 3-d average lag ozone with each 5 percentile increase was performed. Associations of interquartile range increase in same-day ozone were similar between the time-series and case-crossover study designs (RR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.04-1.12) and (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14), respectively. Similar associations were seen for 1-day lag and 3-day average lag ozone levels. PM2.5 was not associated with the outcome in either study design. Dose-response assessment indicated a statistically significant and increasing association around 50-55 ppb consistent for both study designs. Ozone was statistically positively associated with pediatric asthma ED visits in Newark, NJ. Our results were generally comparable across the time-series and case-crossover study designs, indicating both are useful to assess local air pollution impacts.

Meta-analytic evaluation of the association between head injury and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Watanabe, Yukari; Watanabe, Takamitsu

2017-10-01

Head injury is considered as a potential risk factor for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, several recent studies have suggested that head injury is not a cause, but a consequence of latent ALS. We aimed to evaluate such a possibility of reverse causation with meta-analyses considering time lags between the incidence of head injuries and the occurrence of ALS. We searched Medline and Web of Science for case-control, cross-sectional, or cohort studies that quantitatively investigated the head-injury-related risk of ALS and were published until 1 December 2016. After selecting appropriate publications based on PRISMA statement, we performed random-effects meta-analyses to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sixteen of 825 studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The association between head injuries and ALS was statistically significant when the meta-analysis included all the 16 studies (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.21-1.74). However, in the meta-analyses considering the time lags between the experience of head injuries and diagnosis of ALS, the association was weaker (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.01-1.46, time lag ≥ 1 year) or not significant (e.g. OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.84-1.59, time lag ≥ 3 years). Although it did not deny associations between head injuries and ALS, the current study suggests a possibility that such a head-injury-oriented risk of ALS has been somewhat overestimated. For more accurate evaluation, it would be necessary to conduct more epidemiological studies that consider the time lags between the occurrence of head injuries and the diagnosis of ALS.

Observed wave characteristics during growth and decay: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasada Rao, C. V. K.; Baba, M.

1996-10-01

Observed 1-h time series data on sea surface waves in the shelf waters off Goa, west coast of India (depth 80 m), during 17-24 March 1986, are analyzed with reference to the prevailing synoptic winds to understand wave growth and decay aspects. Wind speeds ( U10) ranged from 0 to 11.5 m s -1, whereas significant wave height ( Hs) varied between 0.6 and 2.3 m. Cross-correlation analysis between U10 and Hs revealed a time-lag of 4 h. A relationship is obtained between wave steepness ( H s/L ) and wave age ( C/U10) viz. Log 10( H s/L = -0.53 Log 10( C/U 10) - 1.385. Phillips' hypothesis of f-5 formula for equilibrium range of wave spectrum and relationship between non-dimensional energy ( E * = Eg 2/U *4) and non-dimensional peak frequency ( v * = U *f m/g ) are studied. Correlation of non-dimensional wave parameters ( E * and v *) using the present data showed a better aereement with Hasselmann et al. (1976) when comnared to Toba (1978).

Time-Integral Correlations of Multiple Variables With the Relativistic-Electron Flux at Geosynchronous Orbit: The Strong Roles of Substorm-Injected Electrons and the Ion Plasma Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borovsky, Joseph E.

2017-12-01

Time-integral correlations are examined between the geosynchronous relativistic electron flux index Fe1.2 and 31 variables of the solar wind and magnetosphere. An "evolutionary algorithm" is used to maximize correlations. Time integrations (into the past) of the variables are found to be superior to time-lagged variables for maximizing correlations with the radiation belt. Physical arguments are given as to why. Dominant correlations are found for the substorm-injected electron flux at geosynchronous orbit and for the pressure of the ion plasma sheet. Different sets of variables are constructed and correlated with Fe1.2: some sets maximize the correlations, and some sets are based on purely solar wind variables. Examining known physical mechanisms that act on the radiation belt, sets of correlations are constructed (1) using magnetospheric variables that control those physical mechanisms and (2) using the solar wind variables that control those magnetospheric variables. Fe1.2-increasing intervals are correlated separately from Fe1.2-decreasing intervals, and the introduction of autoregression into the time-integral correlations is explored. A great impediment to discerning physical cause and effect from the correlations is the fact that all solar wind variables are intercorrelated and carry much of the same information about the time sequence of the solar wind that drives the time sequence of the magnetosphere.

Daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence in Guangzhou, China: a time-series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Changyuan; Chen, Xinyu; Chen, Renjie; Cai, Jing; Meng, Xia; Wan, Yue; Kan, Haidong

2016-08-01

Few previous studies have examined the association between temperature and renal colic in developing regions, especially in China, the largest developing country in the world. We collected daily emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) for renal colic from Guangzhou Emergency Center from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012. We used a distributed-lag nonlinear model in addition to the over-dispersed generalized additive model to investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence after controlling for seasonality, humidity, public holidays, and day of the week. We identified 3158 EADs for renal colic during the study period. This exposure-response curve was almost flat when the temperature was low and moderate and elevated when the temperature increased over 21 °C. For heat-related effects, the significant risk occurred on the concurrent day and diminished until lag day 7. The cumulative relative risk of hot temperatures (90th percentile) and extremely hot temperatures (99th percentile) over lag days 0-7 was 1.92 (95 % confidence interval, 1.21, 3.05) and 2.45 (95 % confidence interval, 1.50, 3.99) compared with the reference temperature of 21 °C. This time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China, suggested a nonlinear and lagged association between high outdoor temperatures and daily EADs for renal colic. Our findings might have important public health significance to prevent renal colic.

Time-lag properties of corona streamer discharges between impulse sphere and dc needle electrodes under atmospheric air conditions.

PubMed

Okano, Daisuke

2013-02-01

In this study of corona streamer discharges from an impulse generator using a dc power supply, the relationship of the discharge time-lag with the dc bias voltage between the sphere-to-needle electrodes under atmospheric conditions is investigated. Devices utilizing corona discharges have been used to purify air or water, destroy bacteria, and to remove undesirable substances, and in order to achieve fast response times and high power efficiencies in such devices, it is important to minimize the time-lag of the corona discharge. Our experimental results show that (a) the discharge path of a negatively biased needle electrode will be straighter than that of a positively biased needle and (b) the discharge threshold voltage in both the positive and the negative needle electrodes is nearly equal to 33 kV. By expressing the discharge voltage as a power function of time-lag, the extent of corona generation can be quantitatively specified using the exponent of this power function. The observed behavior of a corona streamer discharge between the negative spherical and the positive needle electrodes indicates that the largest power exponent is associated with the shortest time-lag, owing to the reduction in the statistical time-lag in the absence of a formative time-lag.

A FOURIER-TRANSFORMED BREMSSTRAHLUNG FLASH MODEL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF X-RAY TIME LAGS IN ACCRETING BLACK HOLE SOURCES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroon, John J.; Becker, Peter A., E-mail: jkroon@gmu.edu, E-mail: pbecker@gmu.edu

Accreting black hole sources show a wide variety of rapid time variability, including the manifestation of time lags during X-ray transients, in which a delay (phase shift) is observed between the Fourier components of the hard and soft spectra. Despite a large body of observational evidence for time lags, no fundamental physical explanation for the origin of this phenomenon has been presented. We develop a new theoretical model for the production of X-ray time lags based on an exact analytical solution for the Fourier transform describing the diffusion and Comptonization of seed photons propagating through a spherical corona. The resultingmore » Green's function can be convolved with any source distribution to compute the associated Fourier transform and time lags, hence allowing us to explore a wide variety of injection scenarios. We show that thermal Comptonization is able to self-consistently explain both the X-ray time lags and the steady-state (quiescent) X-ray spectrum observed in the low-hard state of Cyg X-1. The reprocessing of bremsstrahlung seed photons produces X-ray time lags that diminish with increasing Fourier frequency, in agreement with the observations for a wide range of sources.« less

Time-lag properties of corona streamer discharges between impulse sphere and dc needle electrodes under atmospheric air conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okano, Daisuke

2013-02-01

In this study of corona streamer discharges from an impulse generator using a dc power supply, the relationship of the discharge time-lag with the dc bias voltage between the sphere-to-needle electrodes under atmospheric conditions is investigated. Devices utilizing corona discharges have been used to purify air or water, destroy bacteria, and to remove undesirable substances, and in order to achieve fast response times and high power efficiencies in such devices, it is important to minimize the time-lag of the corona discharge. Our experimental results show that (a) the discharge path of a negatively biased needle electrode will be straighter than that of a positively biased needle and (b) the discharge threshold voltage in both the positive and the negative needle electrodes is nearly equal to 33 kV. By expressing the discharge voltage as a power function of time-lag, the extent of corona generation can be quantitatively specified using the exponent of this power function. The observed behavior of a corona streamer discharge between the negative spherical and the positive needle electrodes indicates that the largest power exponent is associated with the shortest time-lag, owing to the reduction in the statistical time-lag in the absence of a formative time-lag.

Studies on applicability of press-coated tablets using hydroxypropylcellulose (HPC) in the outer shell for timed-release preparations.

PubMed

Fukui, E; Uemura, K; Kobayashi, M

2000-08-10

Press-coated tablets, containing diltiazem hydrochloride (DIL) in the core tablet and coated with hydroxypropylcellulose (HPC) as the outer shell, were examined for applicability as timed-release tablets with a predetermined lag time and subsequent rapid drug release phase. Various types of press-coated tablets were prepared using a rotary tabletting machine and their DIL dissolution behavior was evaluated by the JP paddle method. The results indicated that tablets with the timed-release function could be prepared, and that the lag times were prolonged as the viscosity of HPC and the amount of the outer shell were increased. The lag times could be controlled widely by the above method, however, the compression load had little effect. Two different kinds of timed-release press-coated tablets that showed lag times of 3 and 6 h in the in vitro test (denoted PCT(L3) and PCT(L6), respectively) were administered to beagle dogs. DIL was first detected in the plasma more than 3 h after administration, and both tablets showed timed-release. The lag times showed a good agreement between the in vivo and in vitro tests in PCT(L3). However, the in vivo lag times were about 4 h in PCT(L6) and were much shorter than the in vitro lag time. The dissolution test was performed at different paddle rotation speeds, and good agreement was obtained between the in vivo and in vitro lag times at 150 rpm. This suggested that the effects of gastrointestinal peristalsis and contraction should also be taken into consideration for the further development of drug delivery systems.

An Evaluation of a Phase-Lag Boundary Condition for Francis Hydroturbine Simulations Using a Pressure-Based Solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouden, Alex; Cimbala, John; Lewis, Bryan

2014-11-01

While the periodic boundary condition is useful for handling rotational symmetry in many axisymmetric geometries, its application fails for analysis of rotor-stator interaction (RSI) in multi-stage turbomachinery flow. The inadequacy arises from the underlying geometry where the blade counts per row differ, since the blade counts are crafted to deter the destructive harmonic forces of synchronous blade passing. Therefore, to achieve the computational advantage of modeling a single blade passage per row while preserving the integrity of the RSI, a phase-lag boundary condition is adapted to OpenFOAM® software's incompressible pressure-based solver. The phase-lag construct is accomplished through restating the implicit periodic boundary condition as a constant boundary condition that is updated at each time step with phase-shifted data from the coupled cells adjacent to the boundary. Its effectiveness is demonstrated using a typical Francis hydroturbine modeled as single- and double-passages with phase-lag boundary conditions. The evaluation of the phase-lag condition is based on the correspondence of the overall computational performance and the calculated flow parameters of the phase-lag simulations with those of a baseline full-wheel simulation. Funded in part by DOE Award Number: DE-EE0002667.

Swift Monitoring of NGC 4151: Evidence for a Second X-Ray/UV Reprocessing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edelson, R.; Gelbord, J.; Cackett, E.; Connolly, S.; Done, C.; Fausnaugh, M.; Gardner, E.; Gehrels, N.; Goad, M.; Horne, K.; McHardy, I.; Peterson, B. M.; Vaughan, S.; Vestergaard, M.; Breeveld, A.; Barth, A. J.; Bentz, M.; Bottorff, M.; Brandt, W. N.; Crawford, S. M.; Dalla Bontà, E.; Emmanoulopoulos, D.; Evans, P.; Figuera Jaimes, R.; Filippenko, A. V.; Ferland, G.; Grupe, D.; Joner, M.; Kennea, J.; Korista, K. T.; Krimm, H. A.; Kriss, G.; Leonard, D. C.; Mathur, S.; Netzer, H.; Nousek, J.; Page, K.; Romero-Colmenero, E.; Siegel, M.; Starkey, D. A.; Treu, T.; Vogler, H. A.; Winkler, H.; Zheng, W.

2017-05-01

Swift monitoring of NGC 4151 with an ˜6 hr sampling over a total of 69 days in early 2016 is used to construct light curves covering five bands in the X-rays (0.3-50 keV) and six in the ultraviolet (UV)/optical (1900-5500 Å). The three hardest X-ray bands (>2.5 keV) are all strongly correlated with no measurable interband lag, while the two softer bands show lower variability and weaker correlations. The UV/optical bands are significantly correlated with the X-rays, lagging ˜3-4 days behind the hard X-rays. The variability within the UV/optical bands is also strongly correlated, with the UV appearing to lead the optical by ˜0.5-1 days. This combination of ≳3 day lags between the X-rays and UV and ≲1 day lags within the UV/optical appears to rule out the “lamp-post” reprocessing model in which a hot, X-ray emitting corona directly illuminates the accretion disk, which then reprocesses the energy in the UV/optical. Instead, these results appear consistent with the Gardner & Done picture in which two separate reprocessings occur: first, emission from the corona illuminates an extreme-UV-emitting toroidal component that shields the disk from the corona; this then heats the extreme-UV component, which illuminates the disk and drives its variability.

X-ray short-time lags in the Fe-K energy band produced by scattering clouds in active galactic nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizumoto, Misaki; Done, Chris; Hagino, Kouichi; Ebisawa, Ken; Tsujimoto, Masahiro; Odaka, Hirokazu

2018-07-01

X-rays illuminating the accretion disc in active galactic nuclei give rise to an iron K line and its associated reflection spectrum that are lagged behind the continuum variability by the light-travel time from the source to the disc. The measured lag time-scales in the iron band can be as short as ˜Rg/c, where Rg is the gravitational radius, which is often interpreted as evidence for a very small continuum source close to the event horizon of a rapidly spinning black hole. However, the short lags can also be produced by reflection from more distant material, because the primary photons with no time-delay dilute the time-lags caused by the reprocessed photons. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the dilution effect in the X-ray reverberation lags from a half-shell of neutral material placed at 100 Rg from the central source. This gives lags of ˜2 Rg/c, but the iron line is a distinctly narrow feature in the lag-energy plot, whereas the data often show a broader line. We show that both the short lag and the line broadening can be reproduced, if the scattering material is outflowing at ˜0.1c. The velocity structure in the wind can also give shifts in the line profile in the lag-energy plot calculated at different frequencies. Hence we propose that the observed broad iron reverberation lags and shifts in profile as a function of frequency of variability can arise from a disc wind at fairly large distances from the X-ray source.

Effects of air pollution on respiratory hospital admissions in İstanbul, Turkey, 2013 to 2015.

PubMed

Çapraz, Özkan; Deniz, Ali; Doğan, Nida

2017-08-01

We examined the associations between the daily variations of air pollutants and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in İstanbul, the largest city of Turkey. A time series analysis of counts of daily hospital admissions and outdoor air pollutants was performed using single-pollutant Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) while controlling for time trends and meteorological factors over a 3-year period (2013-2015) at different time lags (0-9 days). Effects of the pollutants (Excess Risk, ER) on current-day (lag 0) hospital admissions to the first ten days (lag 9) were determined. Data on hospital admissions, daily mean concentrations of air pollutants of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and NO 2 and daily mean concentrations of temperature and humidity of İstanbul were used in the study. The analysis was conducted among people of all ages, but also focused on different sexes and different age groups including children (0-14 years), adults (35-44 years) and elderly (≥65 years). We found significant associations between air pollution and respiratory related hospital admissions in the city. Our findings showed that the relative magnitude of risks for an association of the pollutants with the total respiratory hospital admissions was in the order of: PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and PM 10 . The highest association of each pollutant with total hospital admission was observed with PM 2.5 at lag 4 (ER = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.09-1.99), NO 2 at lag 4 (ER = 1.27; 95% CI = 1.02-1.53) and PM 10 at lag 0 (ER = 0.61; 95% CI = 0.33-0.89) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 in concentrations of the pollutants. In conclusion, our study showed that short-term exposure to air pollution was positively associated with increased respiratory hospital admissions in İstanbul during 2013-2015. As the first air pollution hospital admission study using GLM in İstanbul, these findings may have implications for local environmental and social policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toward comparing experiment and theory for corroborative research on hingeless rotor stability in forward flight (an experimental and analytical investigation of isolated rotor-flap-lag stability in forward flight)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, G.

1986-01-01

For flap-lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations are conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasisteady aerodynamics theory with dynamic inflow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode are emphasized. Accordingly, a soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades is tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 degrees. The 1.62 m model rotor is untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. In combination with lag natural frequencies, collective pitch settings and flap-lag coupling parameters, the data base comprises nearly 1200 test points (damping and frequency) in forward flight and 200 test points in hover. By computerized symbolic manipulation, a linear analytical model is developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode identificaton. To help explain the correlation between theory and data it also predicts substall and stall regions of the rotor disk from equilibrium values. The correlation shows both the strengthts and weaknesses of the theory in substall.

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Composite Lags at z ≤ 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Jennifer; Shen, Yue; Horne, Keith

We present composite broad-line region (BLR) reverberation mapping lag measurements for H α , H β , He ii λ 4686, and Mg ii for a sample of 144, z ≲ 1 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project. Using only the 32-epoch spectroscopic light curves in the first six-month season of SDSS-RM observations, we compile correlation function measurements for individual objects and then coadd them to allow the measurement of the average lags for our sample at mean redshifts of 0.4 (for H α ) and ∼0.65 (for the other lines). At similar quasar luminositiesmore » and redshifts, the sample-averaged lag decreases in the order of Mg ii, H α , H β , and He ii. This decrease in lags is accompanied by an increase in the mean line width of the four lines, and is roughly consistent with the virialized motion for BLR gas in photoionization equilibrium. These are among the first RM measurements of stratified BLR structure at z > 0.3. Dividing our sample by luminosity, H α shows clear evidence of increasing lags with luminosity, consistent with the expectation from the measured BLR size–luminosity relation based on H β . The other three lines do not show a clear luminosity trend in their average lags due to the limited dynamic range of luminosity probed and the poor average correlation signals in the divided samples, a situation that will be improved with the incorporation of additional photometric and spectroscopic data from SDSS-RM. We discuss the utility and caveats of composite lag measurements for large statistical quasar samples with reverberation mapping data.« less

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Composite Lags at z ≤ 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jennifer; Shen, Yue; Horne, Keith; Brandt, W. N.; Greene, Jenny E.; Grier, C. J.; Ho, Luis C.; Kochanek, Chris; Schneider, Donald P.; Trump, Jonathan R.; Dawson, Kyle S.; Pan, Kaike; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Oravetz, Daniel; Simmons, Audrey; Malanushenko, Elena

2017-09-01

We present composite broad-line region (BLR) reverberation mapping lag measurements for Hα, Hβ, He II λ4686, and Mg II for a sample of 144, z ≲ 1 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project. Using only the 32-epoch spectroscopic light curves in the first six-month season of SDSS-RM observations, we compile correlation function measurements for individual objects and then coadd them to allow the measurement of the average lags for our sample at mean redshifts of 0.4 (for Hα) and ˜0.65 (for the other lines). At similar quasar luminosities and redshifts, the sample-averaged lag decreases in the order of Mg II, Hα, Hβ, and He II. This decrease in lags is accompanied by an increase in the mean line width of the four lines, and is roughly consistent with the virialized motion for BLR gas in photoionization equilibrium. These are among the first RM measurements of stratified BLR structure at z > 0.3. Dividing our sample by luminosity, Hα shows clear evidence of increasing lags with luminosity, consistent with the expectation from the measured BLR size-luminosity relation based on Hβ. The other three lines do not show a clear luminosity trend in their average lags due to the limited dynamic range of luminosity probed and the poor average correlation signals in the divided samples, a situation that will be improved with the incorporation of additional photometric and spectroscopic data from SDSS-RM. We discuss the utility and caveats of composite lag measurements for large statistical quasar samples with reverberation mapping data.

Building Infestation Index for Aedes aegypti and occurrence of dengue fever in the municipality of Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, Brazil, from 2001 to 2016.

PubMed

Rivas, Açucena Veleh; Defante, Renata; Delai, Robson Michael; Rios, Jean Avemir; Britto, André da Silva; Leandro, André de Souza; Gonçalves, Daniela Dib

2018-01-01

the Building Infestation Index (BII) uses the Rapid Assay of the Larval Index for Aedes aegypti (LIRAa) to express the relationship between positive and surveyed properties. We evaluated LIRAa and the relationship between the BII and climate variables for dengue cases in Foz do Iguaçu municipality, Paraná. Spearman's correlations for mean precipitation, mean temperature, BII, and dengue cases (time lag). positive correlations between BII and cases, and mean temperature and cases at two months. Weak correlation between precipitation and cases at three months. LIRAa and climate variables correlate with dengue cases.

Visualizing the quality of partially accruing data for use in decision making.

PubMed

Eaton, Julia; Painter, Ian; Olson, Don; Lober, William B

2015-01-01

Secondary use of clinical health data for near real-time public health surveillance presents challenges surrounding its utility due to data quality issues. Data used for real-time surveillance must be timely, accurate and complete if it is to be useful; if incomplete data are used for surveillance, understanding the structure of the incompleteness is necessary. Such data are commonly aggregated due to privacy concerns. The Distribute project was a near real-time influenza-like-illness (ILI) surveillance system that relied on aggregated secondary clinical health data. The goal of this work is to disseminate the data quality tools developed to gain insight into the data quality problems associated with these data. These tools apply in general to any system where aggregate data are accrued over time and were created through the end-user-as-developer paradigm. Each tool was developed during the exploratory analysis to gain insight into structural aspects of data quality. Our key finding is that data quality of partially accruing data must be studied in the context of accrual lag-the difference between the time an event occurs and the time data for that event are received, i.e. the time at which data become available to the surveillance system. Our visualization methods therefore revolve around visualizing dimensions of data quality affected by accrual lag, in particular the tradeoff between timeliness and completion, and the effects of accrual lag on accuracy. Accounting for accrual lag in partially accruing data is necessary to avoid misleading or biased conclusions about trends in indicator values and data quality.

Relationships among abilities in elderly adults: a time lag analysis.

PubMed

Hayslip, B; Brookshire, R G

1985-11-01

Previous research has suggested that relationships among primary abilities said to measure crystallized (Gc) and fluid (Gf) intelligences remain the same across cohorts if age is held constant, despite generational changes in the levels of abilities. The present study assessed differences in relationship among several components of Gf/Gc in two independent samples of elderly adults, tested in 1975 and 1979 by the same investigator. The 1975 sample consisted of 54 elderly adults aged 59 to 76 years (M = 67.7); the 1979 sample of 50 elderly adults was aged 55 to 82 (M = 69.4). Time-lagged differences in relationships among abilities measuring Gf and Gc (induction, figural relations, and verbal comprehension) were investigated using confirmatory factor analytic procedures. Although a two factor (Gf, Gc) model was common to both the 1975 and 1979 samples, significant differences in unique variances were observed across samples. Some, albeit weaker, evidence was found suggesting time-lagged differences in factor covariances. These data, for the most part, support previous research with younger individuals, suggesting consistency in factor structure across time and cohort.

Time-dependent oral absorption models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higaki, K.; Yamashita, S.; Amidon, G. L.

2001-01-01

The plasma concentration-time profiles following oral administration of drugs are often irregular and cannot be interpreted easily with conventional models based on first- or zero-order absorption kinetics and lag time. Six new models were developed using a time-dependent absorption rate coefficient, ka(t), wherein the time dependency was varied to account for the dynamic processes such as changes in fluid absorption or secretion, in absorption surface area, and in motility with time, in the gastrointestinal tract. In the present study, the plasma concentration profiles of propranolol obtained in human subjects following oral dosing were analyzed using the newly derived models based on mass balance and compared with the conventional models. Nonlinear regression analysis indicated that the conventional compartment model including lag time (CLAG model) could not predict the rapid initial increase in plasma concentration after dosing and the predicted Cmax values were much lower than that observed. On the other hand, all models with the time-dependent absorption rate coefficient, ka(t), were superior to the CLAG model in predicting plasma concentration profiles. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), the fluid absorption model without lag time (FA model) exhibited the best overall fit to the data. The two-phase model including lag time, TPLAG model was also found to be a good model judging from the values of sum of squares. This model also described the irregular profiles of plasma concentration with time and frequently predicted Cmax values satisfactorily. A comparison of the absorption rate profiles also suggested that the TPLAG model is better at prediction of irregular absorption kinetics than the FA model. In conclusion, the incorporation of a time-dependent absorption rate coefficient ka(t) allows the prediction of nonlinear absorption characteristics in a more reliable manner.

An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

PubMed

Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

2014-06-01

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Finite element analysis of the three different posterior malleolus fixation strategies in relation to different fracture sizes.

PubMed

Anwar, Adeel; Lv, Decheng; Zhao, Zhi; Zhang, Zhen; Lu, Ming; Nazir, Muhammad Umar; Qasim, Wasim

2017-04-01

Appropriate fixation method for the posterior malleolar fractures (PMF) according to the fracture size is still not clear. Aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes of the different fixation methods used for fixation of PMF by finite element analysis (FEA) and to compare the effect of fixation constructs on the size of the fracture computationally. Three dimensional model of the tibia was reconstructed from computed tomography (CT) images. PMF of 30%, 40% and 50% fragment sizes were simulated through computational processing. Two antero-posterior (AP) lag screws, two postero-anterior (PA) lag screws and posterior buttress plate were analysed for three different fracture volumes. The simulated loads of 350N and 700N were applied to the proximal tibial end. Models were fixed distally in all degrees of freedom. In single limb standing condition, the posterior plate group produced the lowest relative displacement (RD) among all the groups (0.01, 0.03 and 0.06mm). Further nodal analysis of the highest RD fracture group showed a higher mean displacement of 4.77mm and 4.23mm in AP and PA lag screws model (p=0.000). The amounts of stress subjected to these implants, 134.36MPa and 140.75MPa were also significantly lower (p=0.000). There was a negative correlation (p=0.021) between implant stress and the displacement which signifies a less stable fixation using AP and PA lag screws. Progressively increasing fracture size demands more stable fixation construct because RD increases significantly. Posterior buttress plate produces superior stability and lowest RD in PMF models irrespective of the fragment size. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Study on the Response of Non-photosynthetic Vegetation (NPV) towards the Anomalies of Climate in the Southwestern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, S.; Okin, G. S.

2014-12-01

Non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), including the standing dead leaves and trunks of plants, is not only a crucial component of aboveground biomass in the dry ecosystems but also an effective indicator of drought, since the photosynthetic plants (PV) usually degrade to NPV after drought. With the multiple-endmember spectral mixture (MESMA) analysis, it is possible to extract the NPV coverage to a selected baseline date from MODIS MOD43 NBAR data. In this study, we used a baseline image derived based on JHU Spectral Library to obtain the NPV, PV and bare soil of southwest U.S. from 2000 to 2012. To investigate the response of NPV, we then calculated the lagged and non-lagged correlation between the anomalies of land cover and climate variables. The major land use categories are also employed to investigate the spatial pattern of the response. The more significant correlation between NPV or PV and precipitation than temperature indicates the importance of moisture in the study site. In addition, there is an asymmetric response between NPV to the drought and the increased precipitation. In drier inland, the most significant response of NPV after a deficit of precipitation occurs later than after an increase. The increase of temperature, especially under the deficits of moisture, facilitates the presence of NPV with lag, which is due to the response time of detectable withering of PV. The response of NPV also varies between the different land cover categories. In southwest U.S., the NPV from shrubs and grassland have more sensitive feedbacks on the dynamics of climate than wetter region. The nature of the ecosystems can partly explain the difference, but finer scale studies are necessary for further investigation of specific regions. Considering the increase of drought in southwest U.S., obtaining a better understanding on the response of vegetation is crucial to further evaluate its impacts on the dry ecosystems. This study provides a perspective by examining NPV, another direct indicator of drought. For further studies, temporal and spatial patterns of NPV response to the climate need more scrutiny, such as the spatial pattern of the lags, hotspots of change, and regional-specific feedbacks. Different indicators of extreme events, such as the U.S. Drought Monitor may also be employed to provide more direct evaluation.

A variational conformational dynamics approach to the selection of collective variables in metadynamics.

PubMed

McCarty, James; Parrinello, Michele

2017-11-28

In this paper, we combine two powerful computational techniques, well-tempered metadynamics and time-lagged independent component analysis. The aim is to develop a new tool for studying rare events and exploring complex free energy landscapes. Metadynamics is a well-established and widely used enhanced sampling method whose efficiency depends on an appropriate choice of collective variables. Often the initial choice is not optimal leading to slow convergence. However by analyzing the dynamics generated in one such run with a time-lagged independent component analysis and the techniques recently developed in the area of conformational dynamics, we obtain much more efficient collective variables that are also better capable of illuminating the physics of the system. We demonstrate the power of this approach in two paradigmatic examples.

A variational conformational dynamics approach to the selection of collective variables in metadynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarty, James; Parrinello, Michele

2017-11-01

In this paper, we combine two powerful computational techniques, well-tempered metadynamics and time-lagged independent component analysis. The aim is to develop a new tool for studying rare events and exploring complex free energy landscapes. Metadynamics is a well-established and widely used enhanced sampling method whose efficiency depends on an appropriate choice of collective variables. Often the initial choice is not optimal leading to slow convergence. However by analyzing the dynamics generated in one such run with a time-lagged independent component analysis and the techniques recently developed in the area of conformational dynamics, we obtain much more efficient collective variables that are also better capable of illuminating the physics of the system. We demonstrate the power of this approach in two paradigmatic examples.

Groundwater Variability in a Sandstone Catchment and Linkages with Large-scale Climatic Circulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Bradley, C.

2015-12-01

Groundwater is a crucial water resource that sustains river ecosystems and provides public water supply. Furthermore, during periods of prolonged high rainfall, groundwater-dominated catchments can be subject to protracted flooding. Climate change and associated projected increases in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes have implications for groundwater levels. This study builds on previous research undertaken on a Chalk catchment by investigating groundwater variability in a UK sandstone catchment: the Tern in Shropshire. In contrast to the Chalk, sandstone is characterised by a more lagged response to precipitation inputs; and, as such, it is important to determine the groundwater behaviour and its links with the large-scale climatic circulation to improve process understanding of recharge, groundwater level and river flow responses to hydroclimatological drivers. Precipitation, river discharge and groundwater levels for borehole sites in the Tern basin over 1974-2010 are analysed as the target variables; and we use monthly gridded reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). First, groundwater variability is evaluated and associations with precipitation / discharge are explored using monthly concurrent and lagged correlation analyses. Second, gridded 20CR reanalysis data are used in composite and correlation analyses to identify the regions of strongest climate-groundwater association. Results show that reasonably strong climate-groundwater connections exist in the Tern basin, with a several months lag. These lags are associated primarily with the time taken for recharge waters to percolate through to the groundwater table. The uncovered patterns improve knowledge of large-scale climate forcing of groundwater variability and may provide a basis to inform seasonal prediction of groundwater levels, which would be useful for strategic water resource planning.

FOURIER ANALYSIS OF BLAZAR VARIABILITY: KLEIN–NISHINA EFFECTS AND THE JET SCATTERING ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finke, Justin D.; Becker, Peter A., E-mail: justin.finke@nrl.navy.mil, E-mail: pbecker@gmu.edu

The strong variability of blazars can be characterized by power spectral densities (PSDs) and Fourier frequency-dependent time lags. In previous work, we created a new theoretical formalism for describing the PSDs and time lags produced via a combination of stochastic particle injection and emission via the synchrotron, synchrotron self-Compton, and external Compton (EC) processes. This formalism used the Thomson cross section and simple δ-function approximations to model the synchrotron and Compton emissivities. Here we expand upon this work, using the full Compton cross section and detailed and accurate emissivities. Our results indicate good agreement between the PSDs computed using themore » δ-function approximations and those computed using the accurate expressions, provided the observed photons are produced primarily by electrons with energies exceeding the lower limit of the injected particle population. Breaks are found in the PSDs at frequencies corresponding to the cooling timescales of the electrons primarily responsible for the observed emission, and the associated time lags are related to the difference in electron cooling timescales between the two energy channels, as expected. If the electron cooling timescales can be determined from the observed time lags and/or the observed EC PSDs, then one could in principle use the method developed here to determine the energy of the external seed photon source for EC, which is an important unsolved problem in blazar physics.« less

Upper torso and pelvis linear velocity during the downswing of elite golfers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background During a golf swing, analysis of the movement in upper torso and pelvis is a key step to determine a motion control strategy for accurate and consistent shots. However, a majority of previous studies that have evaluated this movement limited their analysis only to the rotational movement of segments, and translational motions were not examined. Therefore, in this study, correlations between translational motions in the 3 axes, which occur between the upper torso and pelvis, were also examined. Methods The experiments were carried out with 14 male pro-golfers (age: 29 ± 8 years, career: 8.2 ± 4.8years) who registered in the Korea Professional Golf Association (KPGA). Six infrared cameras (VICON; Oxford Metrics, Oxford, UK) and SB-Clinc software (SWINGBANK Ltd, Korea) were used to collect optical marker trajectories. The center of mass (CoM) of each segment was calculated based on kinematic principal. In addition, peak value of CoM velocity and the time that each peak occurred in each segment during downswing was calculated. Also, using cross-correlation analysis, the degree of coupling and time lags of peak values occurred between and within segments (pelvis and upper torso) were investigated. Results As a result, a high coupling strength between upper torso and pelvis with an average correlation coefficient = 0.86 was observed, and the coupling between segments was higher than that within segments (correlation coefficient = 0.81 and 0.77, respectively). Conclusions Such a high coupling at the upper torso and pelvis can be used to reduce the degree of motion control in the central nervous system and maintain consistent patterns in the movement. The result of this study provides important information for the development of optimal golf swing movement control strategies in the future. PMID:23398693

Upper torso and pelvis linear velocity during the downswing of elite golfers.

PubMed

Beak, Seung-Hui; Choi, Ahnryul; Choi, Seung-Wook; Oh, Seung Eel; Mun, Joung Hwan; Yang, Heegoo; Sim, Taeyong; Song, Hae-Ryong

2013-02-11

During a golf swing, analysis of the movement in upper torso and pelvis is a key step to determine a motion control strategy for accurate and consistent shots. However, a majority of previous studies that have evaluated this movement limited their analysis only to the rotational movement of segments, and translational motions were not examined. Therefore, in this study, correlations between translational motions in the 3 axes, which occur between the upper torso and pelvis, were also examined. The experiments were carried out with 14 male pro-golfers (age: 29 ± 8 years, career: 8.2 ± 4.8years) who registered in the Korea Professional Golf Association (KPGA). Six infrared cameras (VICON; Oxford Metrics, Oxford, UK) and SB-Clinc software (SWINGBANK Ltd, Korea) were used to collect optical marker trajectories. The center of mass (CoM) of each segment was calculated based on kinematic principal. In addition, peak value of CoM velocity and the time that each peak occurred in each segment during downswing was calculated. Also, using cross-correlation analysis, the degree of coupling and time lags of peak values occurred between and within segments (pelvis and upper torso) were investigated. As a result, a high coupling strength between upper torso and pelvis with an average correlation coefficient = 0.86 was observed, and the coupling between segments was higher than that within segments (correlation coefficient = 0.81 and 0.77, respectively). Such a high coupling at the upper torso and pelvis can be used to reduce the degree of motion control in the central nervous system and maintain consistent patterns in the movement. The result of this study provides important information for the development of optimal golf swing movement control strategies in the future.

Factors Influencing the Sahelian Paradox at the Local Watershed Scale: Causal Inference Insights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Gordon, M.; Groenke, A.; Larsen, L.

2017-12-01

While the existence of paradoxical rainfall-runoff and rainfall-groundwater correlations are well established in the West African Sahel, the hydrologic mechanisms involved are poorly understood. In pursuit of mechanistic explanations, we perform a causal inference analysis on hydrologic variables in three watersheds in Benin and Niger. Using an ensemble of techniques, we compute the strength of relationships between observational soil moisture, runoff, precipitation, and temperature data at seasonal and event timescales. Performing analysis over a range of time lags allows dominant time scales to emerge from the relationships between variables. By determining the time scales of hydrologic connectivity over vertical and lateral space, we show differences in the importance of overland and subsurface flow over the course of the rainy season and between watersheds. While previous work on the paradoxical hydrologic behavior in the Sahel focuses on surface processes and infiltration, our results point toward the importance of subsurface flow to rainfall-runoff relationships in these watersheds. The hypotheses generated from our ensemble approach suggest that subsequent explorations of mechanistic hydrologic processes in the region include subsurface flow. Further, this work highlights how an ensemble approach to causal analysis can reveal nuanced relationships between variables even in poorly understood hydrologic systems.

Hierarchical Time-Lagged Independent Component Analysis: Computing Slow Modes and Reaction Coordinates for Large Molecular Systems.

PubMed

Pérez-Hernández, Guillermo; Noé, Frank

2016-12-13

Analysis of molecular dynamics, for example using Markov models, often requires the identification of order parameters that are good indicators of the rare events, i.e. good reaction coordinates. Recently, it has been shown that the time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA) finds the linear combinations of input coordinates that optimally represent the slow kinetic modes and may serve in order to define reaction coordinates between the metastable states of the molecular system. A limitation of the method is that both computing time and memory requirements scale with the square of the number of input features. For large protein systems, this exacerbates the use of extensive feature sets such as the distances between all pairs of residues or even heavy atoms. Here we derive a hierarchical TICA (hTICA) method that approximates the full TICA solution by a hierarchical, divide-and-conquer calculation. By using hTICA on distances between heavy atoms we identify previously unknown relaxation processes in the bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor.

Long term multiwavelength studies of the corona/disc connection in AGN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buisson, D.; Lohfink, A.; Alston, W.; Fabian, A.; Gallo, L.; Kara, E.; Zoghbi, A.; Wilkins, D.; Miller, J.; Cackett, E.

2017-10-01

One way of increasing our understanding of AGN is determining the nature of the connection between the optical/UV emitting accretion disc and the X-ray emitting corona. Studies of variability in these two bands are a key tool for gaining insight into the processes involved. We will present results from a sample of long-term AGN monitoring campaigns in the optical, UV and X-ray with Swift. In particular, we will explore UV/optical-X-ray correlations and associated time lags. We will compare these measurements and the UV/optical RMS spectra with theoretical reprocessing models and confront recent claims of the observed lags being longer than those which are expected for a standard thin disc. Additionally, a new Swift monitoring campaign of the z=2 quasar PG 1247+267 allows us to probe the shorter wavelengths at the peak of the accretion disc spectrum, providing information on the region of the disc closest to the black hole. However, not all AGN show such correlations, including IRAS 13224-3809, the subject of a recent 1.5 Ms XMM observation. Using this and other examples, we will explore the possible reasons for the lack of observed correlation.

[A clinical study on the relationship of the tail femur distance and the lag screw migration or cutting-out after the third generation of Gamma nail fixation of intertrochanteric fracture].

PubMed

Hou, Yu; Yao, Qi; Zhang, Gen'ai; Ding, Lixiang

2018-01-01

To confirm the association between tail femur distance (TFD) and lag screw migration or cutting-out in the treatment of intertrochanteric fracture with the third generation of Gamma nail (TGN). The clinical data of 124 cases of intertrochanteric fracture treated with TGN internal fixation and followed up more than 18 months between January 2012 and December 2015 were reviewed and analyzed. There were 52 males and 72 females, with an age of 46-93 years (mean, 78.5 years). According to AO/Association for the Study of Internal Fixation (AO/ASIF) classification, 43 cases were type 31-A1, 69 cases were type 31-A2, and 12 cases were type 31-A3. The time from injury to operation was 1-10 days (mean, 2.9 days). According to the fracture healing of the patients, the patients were divided into the healing group and failure group. The age, gender, height, bone mineral density (BMD), fracture AO/ASIF classification, the time from injury to operation, and the TFD value at 1 day after operation were recorded and compared. The risk factors for the migration or cutting-out of lag screw were analyzed by logistic regression. There were 111 cases in healing group, the healing time was 80-110 days (mean, 95.5 days). There were 13 cases in failure group, including 2 cases of lag screw cutting-out and 11 cases of significant migration. Except for the TFD value at 1 day after operation in failure group was significantly higher than that in the healing group( t =5.14, P =0.00), there was no significant difference in gender, age, height, BMD, fracture of AO/ASIF classification, and the time from injury to operation ( P >0.05) between 2 groups. logistic regression analysis showed that TFD value was a risk factor for the migration or cutting-out of lag screw (B=1.22, standardized coefficient=0.32, Wald χ 2 =14.66, P =0.00, OR=3.37). The patients with higher TFD value had higher risk of postoperative lag screw migration or cutting-out. This result indicates that the appropriate length of the lag screw is helpful to reduce TFD value and prevent postoperative lag screw migration or cutting-out.

Control of protein synthesis in Escherichia coli: strain differences in control of translational initiation after energy source shift-down.

PubMed Central

Jacobson, L A; Jen-Jacobson, L

1980-01-01

We have studied the parameters of protein synthesis in a number of Escherichia coli strains after a shift-down from glucose-minimal to succinate-minimal medium. One group of strains, including K-12(lambda) (ATCC 10798) and NF162, showed a postshift translational yield of 50 to 65% and a 2- to 2.5-fold increase in the functional lifetime of general messenger ribonucleic acid. There was no change in the lag time for beta-galactosidase induction in these strains after the shift-down. A second group, including W1 and W2, showed no reduction in translational yield, no change in the functional lifetime of messenger ribonucleic acid, and a 50% increase in the lag time for beta-galactosidase induction. Evidence is presented which indicates that this increased lag time is not the result of a decreased rate of polypeptide chain propagation. A third group of strains, including NF161, CP78, and NF859, showed an intermediate pattern: translational yield was reduced to about 75% of normal, and the messenger ribonucleic acid functional lifetime was increased by about 50%. Calculation of the relative postshift rates of translational initiation gave about 0.2, 1.0, and 0.5, respectively, for the three groups. There was no apparent correlation between the ability to control translation and the genotypes of these strains at the relA, relX, or spoT loci. Measurements of the induction lag for beta-galactosidase during short-term glucose starvation or after a down-shift induced by alpha-methylglucoside indicated that these regimens elicit responses that are physiologically distinct from those elicited by a glucose-to-succinate shift-down. PMID:6155375

Control of protein synthesis in Escherichia coli: strain differences in control of translational initiation after energy source shift-down.

PubMed

Jacobson, L A; Jen-Jacobson, L

1980-06-01

We have studied the parameters of protein synthesis in a number of Escherichia coli strains after a shift-down from glucose-minimal to succinate-minimal medium. One group of strains, including K-12(lambda) (ATCC 10798) and NF162, showed a postshift translational yield of 50 to 65% and a 2- to 2.5-fold increase in the functional lifetime of general messenger ribonucleic acid. There was no change in the lag time for beta-galactosidase induction in these strains after the shift-down. A second group, including W1 and W2, showed no reduction in translational yield, no change in the functional lifetime of messenger ribonucleic acid, and a 50% increase in the lag time for beta-galactosidase induction. Evidence is presented which indicates that this increased lag time is not the result of a decreased rate of polypeptide chain propagation. A third group of strains, including NF161, CP78, and NF859, showed an intermediate pattern: translational yield was reduced to about 75% of normal, and the messenger ribonucleic acid functional lifetime was increased by about 50%. Calculation of the relative postshift rates of translational initiation gave about 0.2, 1.0, and 0.5, respectively, for the three groups. There was no apparent correlation between the ability to control translation and the genotypes of these strains at the relA, relX, or spoT loci. Measurements of the induction lag for beta-galactosidase during short-term glucose starvation or after a down-shift induced by alpha-methylglucoside indicated that these regimens elicit responses that are physiologically distinct from those elicited by a glucose-to-succinate shift-down.

Relationships of storm-time changes in thermospheric mass density with solar wind/IMF parameters and ring current index of Sym-H

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yunliang; Ma, S. Y.; Xiong, Chao; Luehr, Hermann

The total air mass densities at about 500 km altitude are derived using super-STAR accelerom-eter measurements onboard GRACE satellites for 25 great magnetic storms with minimum Dst less than 100 nT during 2002 to 2006 years. Taking NRLMSISE-00 model-predicted densities without active ap index input as a reference baseline of quiet-time mass density, the storm-time changes in upper thermospheric mass densities are obtained by subtraction for all the storm events and sorted into different grids of latitude by local time sector. The relationships of the storm-time density changes with various interplanetary parameters and magnetospheric ring current index of Sym-H are statistically investigated. The parameters include Akasofu energy coupling function, the merging electric field Em, the magnitude of IMF component in the GSM y-z plane etc. as calculated from OMNI data at 1 AU. It is found that the storm-time changes in the upper thermospheric mass density have the best linear correlation with the Sym-H index in general, showing nearly zero time delay at low-latitudes and a little time ahead at high-latitudes for most cases. Unexpectedly, the magnitude of IMF component in the y-z plane, Byz, shows correlation with storm-time mass density changes better and closer than Akasofu function and even Em. And, the mass density changes lag behind Byz about 1-4 hours for most cases at low-latitudes. The correlations considered above are local time dependent, showing the lowest at dusk sectors. For the largest superstorm of November 2003, the changes in mass density are correlated very closely with Byz, Em, and Sym-H index, showing correlation coefficients averaged over all latitudes in noon sector as high as 0.93, 0.91 and 0.90 separately. The physical factors controlling the lag times between the mass density changes at mid-low-latitudes and the interplanetary parameter variations are also analyzed. The results in this study may pro-vide useful suggestions for establishing empirical model to predict storm-time changes in upper thermospheric mass density. This work is supported by NSFC (No. 40804049) and Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China (No. 200804860012).

Global financial indices and twitter sentiment: A random matrix theory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García, A.

2016-11-01

We use Random Matrix Theory (RMT) approach to analyze the correlation matrix structure of a collection of public tweets and the corresponding return time series associated to 20 global financial indices along 7 trading months of 2014. In order to quantify the collection of tweets, we constructed daily polarity time series from public tweets via sentiment analysis. The results from RMT analysis support the fact of the existence of true correlations between financial indices, polarities, and the mixture of them. Moreover, we found a good agreement between the temporal behavior of the extreme eigenvalues of both empirical data, and similar results were found when computing the inverse participation ratio, which provides an evidence about the emergence of common factors in global financial information whether we use the return or polarity data as a source. In addition, we found a very strong presumption that polarity Granger causes returns of an Indonesian index for a long range of lag trading days, whereas for Israel, South Korea, Australia, and Japan, the predictive information of returns is also presented but with less presumption. Our results suggest that incorporating polarity as a financial indicator may open up new insights to understand the collective and even individual behavior of global financial indices.

Temperature variations in the southern Great Lakes during the last deglaciation: Comparison between pollen and GDGT proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Benjamin I.; Williams, John W.; Russell, James M.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Shane, Linda; Lowell, Thomas V.

2018-02-01

Our understanding of deglacial climate history in the southern Great Lakes region of the United States is primarily based upon fossil pollen data, with few independent and multi-proxy climate reconstructions. Here we introduce a new, well-dated fossil pollen record from Stotzel-Leis, OH, and a new deglacial temperature record based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) at Silver Lake, OH. We compare these new data to previously published records and to a regional stack of pollen-based temperature reconstructions from Stotzel-Leis, Silver Lake, and three other well-dated sites. The new and previously published pollen records at Stotzel-Leis are similar, but our new age model brings vegetation events into closer alignment with known climatic events such as the Younger Dryas (YD). brGDGT-inferred temperatures correlate strongly with pollen-based regional temperature reconstructions, with the strongest correlation obtained for a global soil-based brGDGT calibration (r2 = 0.88), lending confidence to the deglacial reconstructions and the use of brGDGT and regional pollen stacks as paleotemperature proxies in eastern North America. However, individual pollen records show large differences in timing, rates, and amplitudes of inferred temperature change, indicating caution with paleoclimatic inferences based on single-site pollen records. From 16.0 to 10.0ka, both proxies indicate that regional temperatures rose by ∼10 °C, roughly double the ∼5 °C estimates for the Northern Hemisphere reported in prior syntheses. Change-point analysis of the pollen stack shows accelerated warming at 14.0 ± 1.2ka, cooling at 12.6 ± 0.4ka, and warming from 11.6 ± 0.5ka into the Holocene. The timing of Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming and YD onset in our records lag by ∼300-500 years those reported in syntheses of temperature records from the northern mid-latitudes. This discrepancy is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in radiocarbon dating, and correlation between pollen and brGDGT temperature reconstructions rules out vegetation lags as a cause. However, the YD termination appears synchronous among the brGDGT record, regional pollen stack, and Northern Hemisphere stack. The cause of the larger and lagged temperature changes in the southern Great Lakes relative to Northern Hemisphere averages remains unclear, but may be due to the effects of continentality and ice sheet extent on regional climate evolution.

Temperature variations in the southern Great Lakes during the last deglaciation: Comparison between pollen and GDGT proxies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Benjamin I.; Williams, John W.; Russell, James M.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Shane, Linda; Lowell, Thomas V.

2018-01-01

Our understanding of deglacial climate history in the southern Great Lakes region of the United States is primarily based upon fossil pollen data, with few independent and multi-proxy climate reconstructions. Here we introduce a new, well-dated fossil pollen record from Stotzel-Leis, OH, and a new deglacial temperature record based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) at Silver Lake, OH. We compare these new data to previously published records and to a regional stack of pollen-based temperature reconstructions from Stotzel-Leis, Silver Lake, and three other well-dated sites. The new and previously published pollen records at Stotzel-Leis are similar, but our new age model brings vegetation events into closer alignment with known climatic events such as the Younger Dryas (YD). brGDGT-inferred temperatures correlate strongly with pollen-based regional temperature reconstructions, with the strongest correlation obtained for a global soil-based brGDGT calibration (r2 = 0.88), lending confidence to the deglacial reconstructions and the use of brGDGT and regional pollen stacks as paleotemperature proxies in eastern North America. However, individual pollen records show large differences in timing, rates, and amplitudes of inferred temperature change, indicating caution with paleoclimatic inferences based on single-site pollen records. From 16.0 to 10.0ka, both proxies indicate that regional temperatures rose by ∼10 °C, roughly double the ∼5 °C estimates for the Northern Hemisphere reported in prior syntheses. Change-point analysis of the pollen stack shows accelerated warming at 14.0 ± 1.2ka, cooling at 12.6 ± 0.4ka, and warming from 11.6 ± 0.5ka into the Holocene. The timing of Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming and YD onset in our records lag by ∼300–500 years those reported in syntheses of temperature records from the northern mid-latitudes. This discrepancy is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in radiocarbon dating, and correlation between pollen and brGDGT temperature reconstructions rules out vegetation lags as a cause. However, the YD termination appears synchronous among the brGDGT record, regional pollen stack, and Northern Hemisphere stack. The cause of the larger and lagged temperature changes in the southern Great Lakes relative to Northern Hemisphere averages remains unclear, but may be due to the effects of continentality and ice sheet extent on regional climate evolution.

Identifying Environmental Risk Factors of Cholera in a Coastal Area with Geospatial Technologies

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-01-01

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers. PMID:25551518

Identifying environmental risk factors of cholera in a coastal area with geospatial technologies.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-12-29

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers.

Constraining Anisotropic Lorentz Violation via the Spectral-lag Transition of GRB 160625B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Jun-Jie; Wu, Xue-Feng; Shao, Lang

Violations of Lorentz invariance can lead to an energy-dependent vacuum dispersion of light, which results in arrival-time differences of photons with different energies arising from a given transient source. In this work, direction-dependent dispersion constraints are obtained on nonbirefringent Lorentz-violating effects using the observed spectral lags of the gamma-ray burst GRB 160625B. This burst has unusually large high-energy photon statistics, so we can obtain constraints from the true spectral time lags of bunches of high-energy photons rather than from the rough time lag of a single highest-energy photon. Also, GRB 160625B is the only burst to date having a well-definedmore » transition from positive lags to negative lags, providing a unique opportunity to distinguish Lorentz-violating effects from any source-intrinsic time lag in the emission of photons of different energy bands. Our results place comparatively robust two-sided constraints on a variety of isotropic and anisotropic coefficients for Lorentz violation, including the first bounds on Lorentz-violating effects from operators of mass dimension 10 in the photon sector.« less

Effects of temperature variation between neighbouring days on daily hospital visits for childhood asthma: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Li, K; Ni, H; Yang, Z; Wang, Y; Ding, S; Wen, L; Yang, H; Cheng, J; Su, H

2016-07-01

To identify the relationship between temperature variation between neighbouring days (TVN) and hospital visits for childhood asthma in age- and sex-specific groups. An ecological design was used to explore the effect of TVN on hospital visits for childhood asthma. A Poisson generalised linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyse the association between TVN and hospital visits for childhood asthma. All hospital visits for childhood asthma from June 2010 to July 2013 were included (n = 17,022). Daily climate data were obtained from Hefei Meteorological Bureau. A significant correlation was found between TVN and hospital visits for childhood asthma in age- and sex-specific groups. For different gender groups, the effect of TVN on childhood asthma was the greatest at 3 and 5 days lag for males and females. For different age groups, the effect of TVN on childhood asthma was the greatest at 1 and 5 days lag for 0-4 years and 5-14 years children, respectively. A 1 °C increase in TVN was associated with a 4.2% (95% confidence interval 0.9-7.6%) increase in hospital visits for childhood asthma. TVN is associated with hospital visits for childhood asthma. Once the temperature change rapidly, guardians will be urged to pay more attention to their children's health, which may reduce the morbidity of childhood asthma. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MULTICOLOR OPTICAL MICROVARIABILITY IN S5 0716+714

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carini, M. T.; Walters, R.; Hopper, L., E-mail: mike.carini@wku.edu

We report the results of a study of multicolor optical microvariability in the Blazar S5 0716+714. S5 0716+714 was observed in the B and I bands continuously for five consecutive nights in 2003 March. This is the first study to apply color analysis, structure function, and cross-correlation analysis on an optical data set with the temporal coverage and photometric quality that characterizes this data. The source displayed variability on timescales from days to tens of minutes in both bands. Discrete events in the light curves lead to the determination of a range in the size of the emission regions ofmore » R {<=} 1.07 x10{sup 15} cm to R {<=} 9.8 x10{sup 15} cm, adopting {delta} = 20 from Nesci et al. Hysteresis loops were found in plots of the B-band flux (F{sub B}) and the ratio of the B to the I-band flux (F{sub B/I}); these loops were found to be clockwise for dips in the light curves and counterclockwise for bursts. Their directionality and the symmetric nature of the flares are consistent with the flux variations being dominated by the light crossing time of the emission region and not its intrinsic electron cooling or acceleration timescales. The variability between B and I bands is highly correlated with no significant lags between the B and I-band flux variations detected. Significant lags were detected between the flux in the B band (F{sub B}) and the B/I flux ratio (F{sub B/I}). A structure function analysis shows similar slopes in both bands, lying in the range of -1.0 to -2.0, indicating that the observed variability is the result of a fractional noise process, consistent with the variations arising from a turbulent process. A differential I-band calibration for comparison star 4 from the sequence of Villata et al. is also provided.« less

Time correlation between the radio and gamma-ray activity in blazars and the production site of the gamma-ray emission

DOE PAGES

Max-Moerbeck, W.; Hovatta, T.; Richards, J. L.; ...

2014-09-22

In order to determine the location of the gamma-ray emission site in blazars, we investigate the time-domain relationship between their radio and gamma-ray emission. Light-curves for the brightest detected blazars from the first 3 years of the mission of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope are cross-correlated with 4 years of 15GHz observations from the OVRO 40-m monitoring program. The large sample and long light-curve duration enable us to carry out a statistically robust analysis of the significance of the cross-correlations, which is investigated using Monte Carlo simulations including the uneven sampling and noise properties of the light-curves. Modeling the light-curvesmore » as red noise processes with power-law power spectral densities, we find that only one of 41 sources with high quality data in both bands shows correlations with significance larger than 3σ (AO0235+164), with only two more larger than even 2.25σ (PKS 1502+106 and B2 2308+34). Additionally, we find correlated variability in Mrk 421 when including a strong flare that occurred in July-September 2012. These results demonstrate very clearly the difficulty of measuring statistically robust multiwavelength correlations and the care needed when comparing light-curves even when many years of data are used. This should be a caution. In all four sources the radio variations lag the gamma-ray variations, suggesting that the gamma-ray emission originates upstream of the radio emission. Continuous simultaneous monitoring over a longer time period is required to obtain high significance levels in cross-correlations between gamma-ray and radio variability in most blazars.« less

Review: the environmental status and implications of the nitrate time lag in Europe and North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vero, Sara E.; Basu, Nandita B.; Van Meter, Kimberly; Richards, Karl G.; Mellander, Per-Erik; Healy, Mark G.; Fenton, Owen

2018-02-01

The efficacy of water quality policies aiming to reduce or prevent nitrate contamination of waterbodies may be constrained by the inherent delay or "time lag" of water and solute transport through unsaturated (soil) and saturated (groundwater) pathways. These delays must be quantified in order to establish realistic deadlines, thresholds and policy expectations, and to design effective best management practices. The objective of this review is to synthesise the current state of research on nitrate-related time lags in both the European and North American environmental and legislative contexts. The durations of time lags have been found to differ according to climatic, pedological, landscape and management scenarios. Elucidation of these driving factors at a watershed scale is essential where water quality is impaired or at risk. Finally, the existence of time lags is increasingly being acknowledged at a policy level and incorporated into the development of environmental legislation. However, the full impact of these time lags is not yet fully understood or appreciated, and continued outreach and education in scientific, public and policy venues is still required.

Single-cell analysis of S. cerevisiae growth recovery after a sublethal heat-stress applied during an alcoholic fermentation.

PubMed

Tibayrenc, Pierre; Preziosi-Belloy, Laurence; Ghommidh, Charles

2011-06-01

Interest in bioethanol production has experienced a resurgence in the last few years. Poor temperature control in industrial fermentation tanks exposes the yeast cells used for this production to intermittent heat stress which impairs fermentation efficiency. Therefore, there is a need for yeast strains with improved tolerance, able to recover from such temperature variations. Accordingly, this paper reports the development of methods for the characterization of Saccharomyces cerevisiae growth recovery after a sublethal heat stress. Single-cell measurements were carried out in order to detect cell-to-cell variability. Alcoholic batch fermentations were performed on a defined medium in a 2 l instrumented bioreactor. A rapid temperature shift from 33 to 43 °C was applied when ethanol concentration reached 50 g l⁻¹. Samples were collected at different times after the temperature shift. Single cell growth capability, lag-time and initial growth rate were determined by monitoring the growth of a statistically significant number of cells after agar medium plating. The rapid temperature shift resulted in an immediate arrest of growth and triggered a progressive loss of cultivability from 100 to 0.0001% within 8 h. Heat-injured cells were able to recover their growth capability on agar medium after a lag phase. Lag-time was longer and more widely distributed as the time of heat exposure increased. Thus, lag-time distribution gives an insight into strain sensitivity to heat-stress, and could be helpful for the selection of yeast strains of technological interest.