Earth system responses to cumulative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2015-07-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil carbon emissions and multiple climate targets are essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient responses in different climate variables are quantified for a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization and in idealized experiments using the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model. The model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte-Carlo type framework. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.88 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.28 to 2.69 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and in steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The slopes of the relationships change when CO2 is stabilized. The Transient Climate Response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models, but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are applied not only to the mean of climatic variables, but also across the statistical distributions of these variables. This is important as these distributions are expected to change in the future, with more extreme rainfall events, separated by longer dry periods. (2) The novel approach used in this study can simulate transient climate change from 2010 to 2085, rather than time series representative of a stationary climate for the period 2071-2100. (3) The weather generator is used to generate a large number of equiprobable climate change scenarios for each RCM, representative of the natural variability of the weather. All of these scenarios are applied as input to the Geer basin model to assess the projected impact of climate change on groundwater levels, the uncertainty arising for different RCM projections and the uncertainty linked to natural climatic variability. Using the output results from all scenarios, 95% confidence intervals are calculated for each year and month between 2010 and 2085. The climate change scenarios for the Geer basin model predict hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Considering the results of this study, it is very likely that groundwater levels and surface flow rates in the Geer basin will decrease by the end of the century. This is of concern because it also means that groundwater quantities available for abstraction will also decrease. However, this study also shows that the uncertainty of these projections is relatively large compared to the projected changes so that it remains difficult to confidently determine the magnitude of the decrease. The use and combination of an integrated surface - subsurface model and stochastic climate change scenarios has never been used in previous climate change impact studies on groundwater resources. It constitutes an innovation and is an important tool for helping water managers to take decisions.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

Equilibrium and Effective Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugenstein, M.; Bloch-Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, as well as the real world, take thousands of years to equilibrate to CO2 induced radiative perturbations. Equilibrium climate sensitivity - a fully equilibrated 2xCO2 perturbation - has been used for decades as a benchmark in model intercomparisons, as a test of our understanding of the climate system and paleo proxies, and to predict or project future climate change. Computational costs and limited time lead to the widespread practice of extrapolating equilibrium conditions from just a few decades of coupled simulations. The most common workaround is the "effective climate sensitivity" - defined through an extrapolation of a 150 year abrupt2xCO2 simulation, including the assumption of linear climate feedbacks. The definitions of effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity are often mixed up and used equivalently, and it is argued that "transient climate sensitivity" is the more relevant measure for predicting the next decades. We present an ongoing model intercomparison, the "LongRunMIP", to study century and millennia time scales of AOGCM equilibration and the linearity assumptions around feedback analysis. As a true ensemble of opportunity, there is no protocol and the only condition to participate is a coupled model simulation of any stabilizing scenario simulating more than 1000 years. Many of the submitted simulations took several years to conduct. As of July 2016 the contribution comprises 27 scenario simulations of 13 different models originating from 7 modeling centers, each between 1000 and 6000 years. To contribute, please contact the authors as soon as possible We present preliminary results, discussing differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity, the usefulness of transient climate sensitivity, extrapolation methods, and the state of the coupled climate system close to equilibrium. Caption for the Figure below: Evolution of temperature anomaly and radiative imbalance of 22 simulations with 12 models (color indicates the model). 20 year moving average.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

DOE PAGES

Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

2012-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

A transient fully coupled climate-ice-sheet simulation of the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.; Brady, E. C.

2017-12-01

The last glacial inception occurred around 115 ka, following a relative minimum in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. It is believed that small and spatially separated ice caps initially formed in the high elevation regions of northern Canada, Scandinavia, and along the Siberian Arctic coast. These ice caps subsequently migrated down in the valleys where they coalesced and formed the initial seeds of the large coherent ice masses that covered the northern parts of the North American and Eurasian continents over most of the last glacial cycle. Sea level records show that the initial growth period lasted for about 10 kyrs, and the resulting ice sheets may have lowered the global sea level by as much as 30 to 50 meters. Here we examine the transient climate system evolution over the period between 118 and 110 ka, using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). This model features a two-way coupled high-resolution (4x4 km) ice-sheet component (Community Ice Sheet model, version 2; CISM2) that simulates ice sheets as an interactive component of the climate system. We impose a transient forcing protocol where the greenhouse gas concentrations and the orbital parameters follow the nominal year in the simulation; the model topography is also dynamically evolving in order to reflect changes in ice elevation throughout the simulation. The analysis focuses on how the climate system evolves over this time interval, with a special focus on glacial inception in the high-latitude continents. Results will highlight how the evolving ice sheets compare to data and previous model based reconstructions.

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present (version 1) - PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier M.; Valdes, Paul J.; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-07-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the climate change events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 000 years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core experiment over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time-varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given, and we make recommendations for prescribing ice meltwater (or not) in the Core experiment. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate more thoroughly the effect of ice meltwater on climate system evolution, and to examine the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will target shorter durations around specific events in order to understand them in more detail and allow for the more computationally expensive models to take part.

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

DOE PAGES

Castruccio, Stefano; McInerney, David J.; Stein, Michael L.; ...

2014-02-24

The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as patternmore » scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. In conclusion, it may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.« less

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanou, Anastasia; Marshall, John

2015-01-01

Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.

The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-09-01

Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice-albedo feedback predominates the surface-height-temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength.

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

Understanding uncertainty in precipitation changes in a balanced perturbed-physics ensemble under multiple climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Lowe, J.

2013-12-01

Temperature and precipitation patterns are the climate variables with the greatest impacts on both natural and human systems. Due to the small spatial scales and the many interactions involved in the global hydrological cycle, in general circulation models (GCMs) representations of precipitation changes are subject to considerable uncertainty. Quantifying and understanding the causes of uncertainty (and identifying robust features of predictions) in both global and local precipitation change is an essential challenge of climate science. We have used the huge distributed computing capacity of the climateprediction.net citizen science project to examine parametric uncertainty in an ensemble of 20,000 perturbed-physics versions of the HadCM3 general circulation model. The ensemble has been selected to have a control climate in top-of-atmosphere energy balance [Yamazaki et al. 2013, J.G.R.]. We force this ensemble with several idealised climate-forcing scenarios including carbon dioxide step and transient profiles, solar radiation management geoengineering experiments with stratospheric aerosols, and short-lived climate forcing agents. We will present the results from several of these forcing scenarios under GCM parametric uncertainty. We examine the global mean precipitation energy budget to understand the robustness of a simple non-linear global precipitation model [Good et al. 2012, Clim. Dyn.] as a better explanation of precipitation changes in transient climate projections under GCM parametric uncertainty than a simple linear tropospheric energy balance model. We will also present work investigating robust conclusions about precipitation changes in a balanced ensemble of idealised solar radiation management scenarios [Kravitz et al. 2011, Atmos. Sci. Let.].

A study of the kinetic energy generation with general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, T.-C.; Lee, Y.-H.

1983-01-01

The history data of winter simulation by the GLAS climate model and the NCAR community climate model are used to examine the generation of atmospheric kinetic energy. The contrast between the geographic distributions of the generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux shows that kinetic energy is generated in the upstream side of jets, transported to the downstream side and destroyed there. The contributions from the time-mean and transient modes to the counterbalance between generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux are also investigated. It is observed that the kinetic energy generated by the time-mean mode is essentially redistributed by the time-mean flow, while that generated by the transient flow is mainly responsible for the maintenance of the kinetic energy of the entire atmospheric flow.

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wang, H.

2004-01-01

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Caldeira, Ken

2007-06-12

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.

Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geomorphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Gonçalvès, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.-P.

In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geomorphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geomorphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine surrection. Climate forcing results from palaeoclimate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (˜3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA’s Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid potentials. The dependence of the boundary-induced transient effects on the hydraulic diffusivity is illustrated by means of a sensitivity study.

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Peng; Chou, Ming-Dah; Arking, Albert

1987-01-01

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Changes in Seasonal and Extreme Hydrologic Conditions of the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound in an Ensemble Regional Climate Simulation for the Mid-Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

This study examines an ensemble of climate change projections simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and downscaled with a region climate model (RCM) to 40 km spatial resolution for the western North America. One control and three ensemble future climate simulations were produced by the GCM following a business as usual scenario for greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions from 1995 to 2100. The RCM was used to downscale the GCM control simulation (1995-2015) and each ensemble future GCM climate (2040-2060) simulation. Analyses of the regional climate simulations for the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound showed a warming of 1.5-2oC and statisticallymore » insignificant changes in precipitation by the mid-century. Climate change has large impacts on snowpack (about 50% reduction) but relatively smaller impacts on the total runoff for the basin as a whole. However, climate change can strongly affect small watersheds such as those located in the transient snow zone, causing a higher likelihood of winter flooding as a higher percentage of precipitation falls in the form of rain rather than snow, and reduced streamflow in early summer. In addition, there are large changes in the monthly total runoff above the upper 1% threshold (or flood volume) from October through May, and the December flood volume of the future climate is 60% above the maximum monthly flood volume of the control climate. Uncertainty of the climate change projections, as characterized by the spread among the ensemble future climate simulations, is relatively small for the basin mean snowpack and runoff, but increases in smaller watersheds, especially in the transient snow zone, and associated with extreme events. This emphasizes the importance of characterizing uncertainty through ensemble simulations.« less

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate.

PubMed

Fung, Inez Y; Doney, Scott C; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-08-09

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Fung, Inez Y.; Doney, Scott C.; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-01-01

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon–climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain. PMID:16061800

A transient stochastic weather generator incorporating climate model uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenis, Vassilis; Pinamonti, Valentina; Hall, Jim W.; Kilsby, Chris G.

2015-11-01

Stochastic weather generators (WGs), which provide long synthetic time series of weather variables such as rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET), have found widespread use in water resources modelling. When conditioned upon the changes in climatic statistics (change factors, CFs) predicted by climate models, WGs provide a useful tool for climate impacts assessment and adaption planning. The latest climate modelling exercises have involved large numbers of global and regional climate models integrations, designed to explore the implications of uncertainties in the climate model formulation and parameter settings: so called 'perturbed physics ensembles' (PPEs). In this paper we show how these climate model uncertainties can be propagated through to impact studies by testing multiple vectors of CFs, each vector derived from a different sample from a PPE. We combine this with a new methodology to parameterise the projected time-evolution of CFs. We demonstrate how, when conditioned upon these time-dependent CFs, an existing, well validated and widely used WG can be used to generate non-stationary simulations of future climate that are consistent with probabilistic outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble. The WG enables extensive sampling of natural variability and climate model uncertainty, providing the basis for development of robust water resources management strategies in the context of a non-stationary climate.

Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

PubMed

Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

2008-11-13

Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

Mode and climatic factors effect on energy losses in transient heat modes of transmission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigun, A. Ya; Sidorov, O. A.; Osipov, D. S.; Girshin, S. S.; Goryunov, V. N.; Petrova, E. V.

2018-01-01

Electrical energy losses increase in modern grids. The losses are connected with an increase in consumption. Existing models of electric power losses estimation considering climatic factors do not allow estimating the cable temperature in real time. Considering weather and mode factors in real time allows to meet effectively and safely the consumer’s needs to minimize energy losses during transmission, to use electric power equipment effectively. These factors increase an interest in the evaluation of the dynamic thermal mode of overhead transmission lines conductors. The article discusses an approximate analytic solution of the heat balance equation in the transient operation mode of overhead lines based on the least squares method. The accuracy of the results obtained is comparable with the results of solving the heat balance equation of transient thermal mode with the Runge-Kutt method. The analysis of mode and climatic factors effect on the cable temperature in a dynamic thermal mode is presented. The calculation of the maximum permissible current for variation of weather conditions is made. The average electric energy losses during the transient process are calculated with the change of wind, air temperature and solar radiation. The parameters having the greatest effect on the transmission capacity are identified.

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Bader, David; Donner, Leo J.

Model calibration (or tuning) is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientificmore » missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. Furthermore, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target.« less

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Bader, David; Donner, Leo J.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Hannay, Cecile; Molod, Andrea; Neale, Richard B.; Saha, Suranjana

2017-09-01

Model calibration (or tuning) is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientific missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. However, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target.

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

DOE PAGES

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Bader, David; Donner, Leo J.; ...

2017-09-01

Model calibration (or tuning) is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientificmore » missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. Furthermore, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target.« less

Process model simulations of the divergence effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Evans, M. N.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Hughes, M. K.; Kaplan, A.; Vaganov, E. A.

2007-12-01

We explore the extent to which the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model of conifer tree-ring formation can explain evidence for changing relationships between climate and tree growth over recent decades. The VS model is driven by daily environmental forcing (temperature, soil moisture, and solar radiation), and simulates tree-ring growth cell-by-cell as a function of the most limiting environmental control. This simplified representation of tree physiology allows us to examine using a selection of case studies whether instances of divergence may be explained in terms of changes in limiting environmental dependencies or transient climate change. Identification of model-data differences permits further exploration of the effects of tree-ring standardization, atmospheric composition, and additional non-climatic factors.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

2010-03-01

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly precipitation. For simulating climate input the weather generator LARSWG (Semenov and Barrow 1997) was trained for generation daily meteorological records for both steady state and transient climatic conditions and two 100 year of meteorological series of minimum and maximum of air temperature, solar radiation and precipitation were generated. The numerical experiment for studying of transient climate on groundwater was performed for typical vadoze zone parameters of western part of Moscow Artesian basin. As the result, the 100 years series of recharge were simulated. Examination of stochastic properties of simulated time-series and comparative analysis series for the transient and for the steady state conditions shows the trend of increasing of recharge in this region in transient climate. Analysis of daily and monthly simulated water balance shows that this increasing is result of winter snow melting and winter infiltration into thaw topsoil. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research via grant 08-05-00720a REFERENCES Semenov M.A and Barrow E.M., 1997. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35:397-414 Šimůnek, J., M. Th. van Genuchten, and M. Šejna, 2008. Development and applications of the HYDRUS and STANMOD software packages, and related codes, Vadose Zone Journal, doi:10.2136/VZJ2007.0077, Special Issue "Vadose Zone Modeling", 7(2), 587-600. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Climate and marine biogeochemistry during the Holocene from transient model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segschneider, Joachim; Schneider, Birgit; Khon, Vyacheslav

2018-06-01

Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a - perhaps accelerated - continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere-ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere-ocean system.

The Once and Future Battles of Thor and the Midgard Serpent (or the Southern Ocean's Role in Climate)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.

2017-12-01

Floats deployed by oceanographers are giving us all ringside seats to the epic battle between the wind and the deep ocean around Antarctica which will determine the rate of global atmospheric warming over the next century. The poleward-shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds has been shown to maintain the connection between the surface ocean and the atmosphere with the deep ocean even as the surface ocean warms. This "doorway" allows the vast deep ocean reservoir to play a significant role in the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Coupled climate and earth system models at low and high resolution all simulate poleward-shifted and intensified Southern Hemisphere surface westerly winds when subjected to an atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Comparisons of these simulations reveal how stratification, resolution and eddies affect the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases - and our collective fate.

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Evaluating Transient Global and Regional Model Simulations: Bridging the Model/Observations Information Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Karl, T. R.; Easterling, D. R.; Buja, L.; Stouffer, R.; Alpert, J.

2001-05-01

A major transition in our ability to evaluate transient Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations is occurring. Real-time and retrospective numerical weather prediction analysis, model runs, climate simulations and assessments are proliferating from a handful of national centers to dozens of groups across the world. It is clear that it is no longer sufficient for any one national center to develop its data services alone. The comparison of transient GCM results with the observational climate record is difficult for several reasons. One limitation is that the global distributions of a number of basic climate quantities, such as precipitation, are not well known. Similarly, observational limitations exist with model re-analysis data. Both the NCEP/NCAR, and the ECMWF, re-analysis eliminate the problems of changing analysis systems but observational data also contain time-dependant biases. These changes in input data are blended with the natural variability making estimates of true variability uncertain. The need for data homogeneity is critical to study questions related to the ability to evaluate simulation of past climate. One approach to correct for time-dependant biases and data sparse regions is the development and use of high quality 'reference' data sets. The primary U.S. National responsibility for the archive and service of weather and climate data rests with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). However, as supercomputers increase the temporal and spatial resolution of both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and GCM models, the volume and varied formats of data presented for archive at NCDC, using current communications technologies and data management techniques is limiting the scientific access of these data. To address this ever expanding need for climate and NWP information, NCDC along with the National Center's for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have initiated the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). NOMADS is a collaboration between the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies (COLA); the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL); the George Mason University (GMU); the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); the NCDC; NCEP; the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL); and the University of Washington. The objective of the NOMADS is to preserve and provide retrospective access to GCM's and reference quality long-term observational and high volume three dimensional data as well as NCEP NWP models and re-start and re-analysis information. The creation of the NOMADS features a data distribution, format independent, methodology enabling scientific collaboration between researchers. The NOMADS configuration will allow a researcher to transparently browse, extract and intercompare retrospective observational and model data products from any of the participating centers. NOMADS will provide the ability to easily initialize and compare the results of ongoing climate model assessments and NWP output. Beyond the ingest and access capability soon to be implemented with NOMADS is the challenge of algorithm development for the inter-comparison of large-array data (e.g., satellite and radar) with surface, upper-air, and sub-surface ocean observational data. The implementation of NOMADS should foster the development of new quality control processes by taking advantage of distributed data access.

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

Constraints on Transient Viscoelastic Rheology of the Asthenosphere From Seasonal Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanard, Kristel; Fleitout, Luce; Calais, Eric; Barbot, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2018-03-01

We discuss the constraints on short-term asthenospheric viscosity provided by seasonal deformation of the Earth. We use data from 195 globally distributed continuous Global Navigation Satellite System stations. Surface loading is derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and used as an input to predict geodetic displacements. We compute Green's functions for surface displacements for a purely elastic spherical reference Earth model and for viscoelastic Earth models. We show that a range of transient viscoelastic rheologies derived to explain the early phase of postseismic deformation may induce a detectable effect on the phase and amplitude of horizontal displacements induced by seasonal loading at long wavelengths (1,300-4,000 km). By comparing predicted and observed seasonal horizontal motion, we conclude that transient asthenospheric viscosity cannot be lower than 5 × 1017 Pa.s, suggesting that low values of transient asthenospheric viscosities reported in some postseismic studies cannot hold for the seasonal deformation global average.

Climate change impact on groundwater levels in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, D. D.; Wendland, E.

2013-12-01

The unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries might cause water availability restrictions in the future. Such issue is likely to worsen due to predicted climate changes for the incoming decades. As numerous studies suggest, aquifers recharge rates will be affected as a result of climate change. The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is one of the most important transboundary aquifer in the world, providing drinkable water for millions of people in four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). Considering the GAS relevance and how its recharge rates might be altered by climatic conditions anomalies, the objective of this work is to assess possible climate changes impacts on groundwater levels in this aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models' (GCM) outputs were used as inputs in a transient flux groundwater model created using the software SPA (Simulation of Process in Aquifers), enabling groundwater table fluctuation to be evaluated under distinct climatic scenarios. Six monitoring wells, located in a representative basin (Ribeirão da Onça basin) inside a GAS outcrop zone (ROB), provided water table measurements between 2004 and 2011 to calibrate the groundwater model. Using observed climatic data, a water budget method was applied to estimate recharge in different types of land uses. Statistically downscaled future climate scenarios were used as inputs for that same recharge model, which provided data for running SPA under those scenarios. The results show that most of the GCMs used here predict temperature arises over 275,15 K and major monthly rainfall mean changes to take place in the dry season. During wet seasons, those means might experience around 50% decrease. The transient model results indicate that water table variations, derived from around 70% of the climate scenarios, would vary below those measured between 2004 and 2011. Among the thirteen GCMs considered in this work, only four of them predicted more extreme climate scenarios. In some regions of the study area and under these extreme conditions, groundwater surface would decline more than 10 m. Although more optimistic scenarios resulted in an increase of groundwater levels in more than half of ROB, these would cause up to 5 m water table decline. The results reinforce the need for a permanent hydrogeological monitoring, mainly in the GAS recharge areas, along with the development of other climate change impacts assessment works using different downscaling and recharge estimates methods.

Soil and vegetation parameter uncertainty on future terrestrial carbon sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothavala, Z.; Felzer, B. S.

2013-12-01

We examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate at the centennial scale using an intermediate complexity Earth system climate model that includes the effects of dynamic vegetation and the global carbon cycle. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated terrestrial carbon sinks to three key model parameters: (a) The temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition, (b) the upper temperature limits on the rate of photosynthesis, and (c) the nitrogen limitation of the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco. We integrated the model in fully coupled mode for a 1200-year spin-up period, followed by a 300-year transient simulation starting at year 1800. Ensemble simulations were conducted varying each parameter individually and in combination with other variables. The results of the transient simulations show that terrestrial carbon uptake is very sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Changes in net primary productivity were most sensitive to the upper temperature limit on the rate of photosynthesis, which also had a dominant effect on overall land carbon trends; this is consistent with previous research that has shown the importance of climatic suppression of photosynthesis as a driver of carbon-climate feedbacks. Soil carbon generally decreased with increasing temperature, though the magnitude of this trend depends on both the net primary productivity changes and the temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition. Vegetation carbon increased in some simulations, but this was not consistent across all configurations of model parameters. Comparing to global carbon budget observations, we identify the subset of model parameters which are consistent with observed carbon sinks; this serves to narrow considerably the future model projections of terrestrial carbon sink changes in comparison with the full model ensemble.

The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change.

Using prior information to separate the temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing from that of aerosols - Estimating the transient climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurer, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabriele

2016-04-01

The evaluation of the transient climate response (TCR) is of critical importance to policy makers as it can be used to calculate a simple estimate of the expected warming given predicted greenhouse gas emissions. Previous studies using optimal detection techniques have been able to estimate a TCR value from the historic record using simulations from some of the models which took part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) but have found that others give unconstrained results. At least partly this is due to degeneracy between the greenhouse gas and aerosol signals which makes separation of the temperature response to these forcings problematic. Here we re-visit this important topic by using an adapted optimal detection analysis within a Bayesian framework. We account for observational uncertainty by the use of an ensemble of instrumental observations, and model uncertainty by combining the results from several different models. This framework allows the use of prior information which is found to help separate the response to the different forcings leading to a more constrained estimate of TCR.

Modelling the Geographical Range of a Species with Variable Life-History

PubMed Central

Macfadyen, Sarina; Kriticos, Darren J.

2012-01-01

We show how a climatic niche model can be used to describe the potential geographic distribution of a pest species with variable life-history, and illustrate how to estimate biogeographic pest threats that vary across space. The models were used to explore factors that affect pest risk (irrigation and presences of host plant). A combination of current distribution records and published experimental data were used to construct separate models for the asexual and sexual lineages of Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) (Hemiptera: Aphididae). The two models were combined with knowledge of host plant presence to classify the global pest risk posed by R. padi. Whilst R. padi has a relatively limited area in which sexual lineages can persist year round, a much larger area is suitable for transient sexual and asexual lineages to exist. The greatest risk of establishment of persistent sexual and asexual populations is in areas with warm temperate climates. At the global scale the models show very little difference in risk patterns between natural rainfall and irrigation scenarios, but in Australia, the amount of land suitable for persistent asexual and transient sexual populations decreases (by 20%) if drought stress is no longer alleviated by irrigation. This approach proved useful for modelling the potential distribution of a species that has a variable life-history. We were able to use the model outputs to examine factors such as irrigation practices and host plant presence that altered the nature (transient or permanent) and extent of pest risk. The composite niche maps indicate pest risk in terms that are useful to both biosecurity agencies and pest managers. PMID:22808133

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

2013-04-01

While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.

Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

2013-06-01

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming and Aerosol Cooling to Reveal Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.

2015-12-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Bias and robustness of uncertainty components estimates in transient climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hingray, Benoit; Blanchet, Juliette; Jean-Philippe, Vidal

2016-04-01

A critical issue in climate change studies is the estimation of uncertainties in projections along with the contribution of the different uncertainty sources, including scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty and internal variability. Quantifying the different uncertainty sources faces actually different problems. For instance and for the sake of simplicity, an estimate of model uncertainty is classically obtained from the empirical variance of the climate responses obtained for the different modeling chains. These estimates are however biased. Another difficulty arises from the limited number of members that are classically available for most modeling chains. In this case, the climate response of one given chain and the effect of its internal variability may be actually difficult if not impossible to separate. The estimate of scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability components are thus likely to be not really robust. We explore the importance of the bias and the robustness of the estimates for two classical Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches: a Single Time approach (STANOVA), based on the only data available for the considered projection lead time and a time series based approach (QEANOVA), which assumes quasi-ergodicity of climate outputs over the whole available climate simulation period (Hingray and Saïd, 2014). We explore both issues for a simple but classical configuration where uncertainties in projections are composed of two single sources: model uncertainty and internal climate variability. The bias in model uncertainty estimates is explored from theoretical expressions of unbiased estimators developed for both ANOVA approaches. The robustness of uncertainty estimates is explored for multiple synthetic ensembles of time series projections generated with MonteCarlo simulations. For both ANOVA approaches, when the empirical variance of climate responses is used to estimate model uncertainty, the bias is always positive. It can be especially high with STANOVA. In the most critical configurations, when the number of members available for each modeling chain is small (< 3) and when internal variability explains most of total uncertainty variance (75% or more), the overestimation is higher than 100% of the true model uncertainty variance. The bias can be considerably reduced with a time series ANOVA approach, owing to the multiple time steps accounted for. The longer the transient time period used for the analysis, the larger the reduction. When a quasi-ergodic ANOVA approach is applied to decadal data for the whole 1980-2100 period, the bias is reduced by a factor 2.5 to 20 depending on the projection lead time. In all cases, the bias is likely to be not negligible for a large number of climate impact studies resulting in a likely large overestimation of the contribution of model uncertainty to total variance. For both approaches, the robustness of all uncertainty estimates is higher when more members are available, when internal variability is smaller and/or the response-to-uncertainty ratio is higher. QEANOVA estimates are much more robust than STANOVA ones: QEANOVA simulated confidence intervals are roughly 3 to 5 times smaller than STANOVA ones. Excepted for STANOVA when less than 3 members is available, the robustness is rather high for total uncertainty and moderate for internal variability estimates. For model uncertainty or response-to-uncertainty ratio estimates, the robustness is conversely low for QEANOVA to very low for STANOVA. In the most critical configurations (small number of member, large internal variability), large over- or underestimation of uncertainty components is very thus likely. To propose relevant uncertainty analyses and avoid misleading interpretations, estimates of uncertainty components should be therefore bias corrected and ideally come with estimates of their robustness. This work is part of the COMPLEX Project (European Collaborative Project FP7-ENV-2012 number: 308601; http://www.complex.ac.uk/). Hingray, B., Saïd, M., 2014. Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multimodel multireplicate ensemble of climate projections. J.Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00629.1 Hingray, B., Blanchet, J. (revision) Unbiased estimators for uncertainty components in transient climate projections. J. Climate Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Vidal, J.P. (revision) Robustness of uncertainty components estimates in climate projections. J.Climate

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 20; The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Nebuda, Sharon; Shen, Bo-Wen

2001-01-01

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley, L. J.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Hope, A. P.; Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T. P.

2016-12-01

We provide an overview of reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) needed to achieve either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Climate Agreement. We will show how much energy must be produced, either by renewables that do not emit significant levels of atmospheric GHGs or via carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) coupled to fossil fuel power plants, to meet forecast global energy demand out to 2060. These projections will be based on two modeling frameworks: our empirical model of global climate (EM-GC) and the CMIP 5 GCMs used throughout IPCC (2013). For each framework, we will show estimates of transient climate response to cumulative emission of carbon to place limits on future emission of CO2 via the combustion of fossil fuel. We will also quantify the impact of future atmospheric CH4 on achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated Western North America Mid-latitude Vegetation Changes for 15-10 ka Using the CCSM3 TraCE Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

The period from 15-10 ka was a time of rapid vegetation changes in North America. Continental ice sheets in northern North America were receding, exposing new habitat for vegetation, and regions distant from the ice sheets experienced equally large environmental changes. Northern hemisphere temperatures during this period were increasing, promoting transitions from cold-adapted to temperate plant taxa at mid-latitudes. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide important information on vegetation responses to climate changes, including both the spatial dynamics and rates of species distribution changes over time. Paleovegetation simulations also can fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation records (e.g., pollen data from lake sediments), allowing us to test hypotheses about past vegetation changes (e.g., the location of past refugia). We used the CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation as input for LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate vegetation changes from 15-10 ka for parts of western North America at mid-latitudes ( 35-55° N). For these simulations, LPJ-GUESS was parameterized to simulate key tree taxa for western North America (e.g., Pseudotsuga, Tsuga, Quercus, etc.). The CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of the study area. We analyzed the simulated spatial and temporal dynamics of these taxa and compared the simulated changes with observed paleovegetation changes recorded in pollen and plant macrofossil data (e.g., data from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database). In general, the LPJ-GUESS simulations reproduce the general patterns of paleovegetation responses to climate change, although the timing of some simulated vegetation changes do not match the observed paleovegetation record. We describe the areas and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of the simulated climate and vegetation data. The magnitude and rate of the simulated past vegetation changes are compared with projected future vegetation changes for the region.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models -- such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake -- may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect.

Regular network model for the sea ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic.

PubMed

Müller-Stoffels, Marc; Wackerbauer, Renate

2011-03-01

The Arctic Ocean and sea ice form a feedback system that plays an important role in the global climate. The complexity of highly parameterized global circulation (climate) models makes it very difficult to assess feedback processes in climate without the concurrent use of simple models where the physics is understood. We introduce a two-dimensional energy-based regular network model to investigate feedback processes in an Arctic ice-ocean layer. The model includes the nonlinear aspect of the ice-water phase transition, a nonlinear diffusive energy transport within a heterogeneous ice-ocean lattice, and spatiotemporal atmospheric and oceanic forcing at the surfaces. First results for a horizontally homogeneous ice-ocean layer show bistability and related hysteresis between perennial ice and perennial open water for varying atmospheric heat influx. Seasonal ice cover exists as a transient phenomenon. We also find that ocean heat fluxes are more efficient than atmospheric heat fluxes to melt Arctic sea ice.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Regional Climate Modeling of Volcanic Eruptions and the Arctic Climate System: A Baffin Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losic, M.; Robock, A.

2010-12-01

It is well-understood that the effects of volcanic aerosol loading into the stratosphere are transient, with global cooling lasting only a few years after a single large eruption. Geological evidence collected from Northern Baffin Island, Canada, suggests ice cap growth began soon after a succession of several large eruptions in the 13th century, and they did not start to melt until roughly a century ago. We investigate which feedbacks allowed these ice caps to be maintained long after the transient forcing of the volcanic aerosols, by conducting sensitivity studies with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Polar WRF, a version of WRF developed specifically for the polar regions. Results from an ensemble of month-long regional simulations over Baffin Island suggest that better treatment of snow and ice in Polar WRF improves our regional climate simulations. Thus, sensitivity test results from decade-long runs with imposed changes to boundary condition temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations using Polar WRF are presented. Preliminary findings suggest that not only large scale but localized climate feedbacks play an important role in the responses of the ice caps after temperature and carbon dioxide forcings are applied. The results from these and further sensitivity tests will provide insight into the influence of regional feedbacks on the persistence of these ice caps long after the 13th century eruptions.

Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Renyi; Saravanan, R.

2014-01-01

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m-2 at the Earth’s surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

Sensitivity of climate and atmospheric CO2 to deep-ocean and shallow-ocean carbonate burial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volk, Tyler

1989-01-01

A model of the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle is presented that distinguishes carbonate masses produced by shallow-ocean and deep-ocean carbonate burial and shows that reasonable increases in deep-ocean burial could produce substantial warmings over a few hundred million years. The model includes exchanges between crust and mantle; transients from burial shifts are found to be sensitive to the fraction of nondegassed carbonates subducted into the mantle. Without the habitation of the open ocean by plankton such as foraminifera and coccolithophores, today's climate would be substantially colder.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.

PubMed

Zachos, J C; Lohmann, K C; Walker, J C; Wise, S W

1993-03-01

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

1993-01-01

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

Setting up a model intercomparison project for the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Valdes, P. J.; Roche, D. M.; Kageyama, M.

2014-12-01

The last deglaciation (~ 21-9 ka) presents a series of opportunities to study the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate changes and long-term trends in the Earth System. Most of the forcings are relatively well constrained and geological archives record responses over a range of timescales. Despite this, large uncertainties remain over the feedback loops that culminated in the collapse of the great Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, and a consensus has yet to be reached on the chains of events that led to rapid surface warming and cooling during this period.Climate models are powerful tools for quantitatively assessing these outstanding issues through their ability to temporally resolve cause and effect, as well as break down the contributions from different forcings. This is well demonstrated by pioneering work; for example by Liu et al. (2009), Roche et al. (2011), Gregoire et al. (2012) and Menviel et al. (2011). However, such work is not without challenges; model-geological data mismatches remain unsolved and it is difficult to compare results from different models with unique experiment designs. Therefore, we have established a multidisciplinary Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project working group to coordinate transient climate model simulations and geological archive compilations of the last deglaciation. Here, we present the plans and progress of the working group in its first phase of activity; the investigation of Heinrich Stadial 1 and the lead into the Bolling warming event. We describe the set-up of the core deglacial experiment, explain our approach for dealing with uncertain climate forcings and outline our solutions to challenges posed by this research. By defining a common experiment design, we have built a framework to include models of different speeds, complexities and resolution, maximising the reward of this varied approach. One of the next challenges is to compile transient proxy records and develop a methodology for dealing with uncertainty and error in model-geological data comparisons. Through this global and interdisciplinary initiative, we combine multi-proxy records with a suite of different modelling techniques to test hypotheses for abrupt climate changes and reconstruct the chain of events that deglaciated the Earth 21-9 ka.

Observationally-based Metrics of Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemical Variables are Essential for Evaluating Earth System Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean is central to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Due to its complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes and topography. Understanding how the ocean carries heat and carbon into its interior and how the observed wind changes are affecting this uptake is essential to accurately projecting transient climate sensitivity. Observationally-based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate models. As the community shifts toward Earth system models with explicit carbon simulations, more direct observations of important biogeochemical parameters, like those obtained from the biogeochemically-sensored floats that are part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, are essential. One goal of future observing systems should be to create observationally-based benchmarks that will lead to reducing uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.

Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene - an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Ni, Jian; Cao, Xianyong; Wang, Yongbo; Fischer, Nils; Pfeiffer, Madlene; Jin, Liya; Khon, Vyacheslav; Wagner, Sebastian; Haberkorn, Kerstin; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-02-01

The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate-vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean(-vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions.In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon-westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4° in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6° in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21 % during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert-steppe margin is shifted westward by 5° (1-9° in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2°, ranging from 0 to 4° in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America: Diagnosis of feedbacks between groundwater and land energy fluxes at continental scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Reed; Condon, Laura

2016-04-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Model results suggest that partitioning of plant transpiration to bare soil evaporation is a function of water table depth and later groundwater flow. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Stationary Waves of the Ice Age Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Held, Isaac M.

1988-08-01

A linearized, steady state, primitive equation model is used to simulate the climatological zonal asymmetries (stationary eddies) in the wind and temperature fields of the 18 000 YBP climate during winter. We compare these results with the eddies simulated in the ice age experiments of Broccoli and Manabe, who used CLIMAP boundary conditions and reduced atmospheric CO2 in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled with a static mixed layer ocean model. The agreement between the models is good, indicating that the linear model can be used to evaluate the relative influences of orography, diabatic heating, and transient eddy heat and momentum transports in generating stationary waves. We find that orographic forcing dominates in the ice age climate. The mechanical influence of the continental ice sheets on the atmosphere is responsible for most of the changes between the present day and ice age stationary eddies. This concept of the ice age climate is complicated by the sensitivity of the stationary eddies to the large increase in the magnitude of the zonal mean meridional temperature gradient simulated in the ice age GCM.

Modelling the influence of elevation and snow regime on winter stream temperature in the rain-on-snow zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leach, J.; Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Winter stream temperature of coastal mountain catchments influences fish growth and development. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs are dominant controls on stream thermal regimes in these regions. Existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. Therefore, we developed and evaluated a conceptual-parametric catchment-scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model provided reasonable estimates of observed stream temperature at three test catchments. We used the model to simulate winter stream temperature for virtual catchments located at different elevations within the rain-on-snow zone. The modelling exercise examined stream temperature response associated with interactions between elevation, snow regime, and changes in air temperature. Modelling results highlight that the sensitivity of winter stream temperature response to changes in climate may be dependent on catchment elevation and landscape position.

A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2018-03-01

A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, C.; Keisling, B. A.; Box, J. E.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Sinclair, G.; DeConto, R. M.

2018-02-01

The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to climate forcing is of key importance in assessing its contribution to past and future sea level rise. Surface mass loss occurs during summer, and accounting for temperature seasonality is critical in simulating ice sheet evolution and in interpreting glacial landforms and chronologies. Ice core records constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change but are largely limited to annual mean estimates from the ice sheet interior. Here we merge ice core reconstructions with transient climate model simulations to generate Greenland-wide and seasonally resolved surface air temperature fields during the last deglaciation. Greenland summer temperatures peak in the early Holocene, consistent with records of ice core melt layers. We perform deglacial Greenland ice sheet model simulations to demonstrate that accounting for realistic temperature seasonality decreases simulated glacial ice volume, expedites the deglacial margin retreat, mutes the impact of abrupt climate warming, and gives rise to a clear Holocene ice volume minimum.

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

DOE PAGES

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2012-05-15

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

Parameterization of eddy sensible heat transports in a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genthon, Christophe; Le Treut, Herve; Sadourny, Robert; Jouzel, Jean

1990-01-01

A Charney-Branscome based parameterization has been tested as a way of representing the eddy sensible heat transports missing in a zonally averaged dynamic model (ZADM) of the atmosphere. The ZADM used is a zonally averaged version of a general circulation model (GCM). The parameterized transports in the ZADM are gaged against the corresponding fluxes explicitly simulated in the GCM, using the same zonally averaged boundary conditions in both models. The Charney-Branscome approach neglects stationary eddies and transient barotropic disturbances and relies on a set of simplifying assumptions, including the linear appoximation, to describe growing transient baroclinic eddies. Nevertheless, fairly satisfactory results are obtained when the parameterization is performed interactively with the model. Compared with noninteractive tests, a very efficient restoring feedback effect between the modeled zonal-mean climate and the parameterized meridional eddy transport is identified.

Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM for a variety of transient forcing scenarios. Both surface warming and sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the deep ocean in response to a gradually increasing forcing are reasonably reproduced on time scales of 100-150 y. However a wide range of diffusion coefficients is needed to match the behavior of different AOGCMs. We use results of simulations with the 2-D model to show that the impact on climate change of the implied uncertainty in the rate of heat penetration into the deep ocean is comparable with that of other significant uncertainties.

Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2010-05-01

Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help building effective adaptation strategies. This work thus aims at showing the potential of standardized indices to describe changes in drought characteristics, but also possible pitfalls and potentially misleading interpretations.

The geological and climatological case for a warmer and wetter early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Craddock, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The climate of early Mars remains a topic of intense debate. Ancient terrains preserve landscapes consistent with stream channels, lake basins and possibly even oceans, and thus the presence of liquid water flowing on the Martian surface 4 billion years ago. However, despite the geological evidence, determining how long climatic conditions supporting liquid water lasted remains uncertain. Climate models have struggled to generate sufficiently warm surface conditions given the faint young Sun—even assuming a denser early atmosphere. A warm climate could have potentially been sustained by supplementing atmospheric CO2 and H2O warming with either secondary greenhouse gases or clouds. Alternatively, the Martian climate could have been predominantly cold and icy, with transient warming episodes triggered by meteoritic impacts, volcanic eruptions, methane bursts or limit cycles. Here, we argue that a warm and semi-arid climate capable of producing rain is most consistent with the geological and climatological evidence.

Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi

The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi etmore » al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO 2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems, biomes, and models. This framework has been successfully implemented by several global land models, such as CABLE (Xia et al., 2013), LPJ-GUESS (Ahlström et al., 2015), CLM (Hararuk et al., 2014; Huang et al., 2017, submitted; Shi et al., 2017, submitted), and ORCHIDEE (Huang et al., 2017, unpublished). Moreover, we have identified the theoretical foundation of the determinants of transient C storage dynamics by adding another term, C storage potential, to the steady-state traceability framework (Luo et al., 2017). The theoretical foundation of transient C storage dynamics has been applied to develop a transient traceability framework to explore the traceable components of transient C storage dynamics responded to the rising CO 2 and climate change in the two contrasting ecosystem types Duke needleleaved forest and Harvard deciduous broadleaved forest (Jiang et al., 2017, in revision). Overall, with the data synthesis, data assimilation techniques, and the steady-state and transient traceability frameworks, we have greatly improved land process models for predicting responses and feedback of terrestrial C dynamics to global change. The matrix approaches has the potential to be applied in theoretical research on nitrogen and phosphorus cycle, and therefore, the coupling of carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus.« less

Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

2013-02-07

According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration provided the critical feedback on global deglaciation.

Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird.

PubMed

Genovart, Meritxell; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Igual, Jose M; Pradel, Roger; Forero, Manuela G; Oro, Daniel

2013-01-01

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

The role of transients in the Mid Summer Drought over the Tropical Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, E.; Magaña Rueda, V.; Caetano, E.

2013-05-01

The Mid Summer Drought (MSD) has raised the interested of those interested in regional climate dynamics since it appears to be a unique characteristic of the tropical Americas climate. The MSD corresponds to a relative minimum in summer precipitation between July and August in the Mesoamerican region. Several theories have been posed to explain its origin including the annual cycle march of the ITCZ, a teleconnection from the Asian monsoon region, or an air sea interaction process that relates the warm pools over the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea. However, none of them has addressed the various characteristics of the MSD described by Magaña et al (1999) and Magaña and Caetano (2005). In the present paper, the role of the transient mean flow interaction over the Caribbean Sea is explored. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the transients interact in such a way that the CLLJ reaches maximum intensity when the MSD occurs. This is a period of minimum Perturbation Kinetic Energy in the region, suggesting that a CLLJ stronger than approximately 15 m/s tends to inhibit the amplification of eddies. Transients are crucial dynamic elements to produce precipitation over the Mexico and Central American region. Over the eastern Pacific warm pool, tropical convection and sea surface temperature are related by a sort of Clausius Clapeyron exponential equation. However, there are two branches for the relationship, one for the first maximum in tropical convection during June, and a second one during September, with a relative minimum corresponding to the MSD in July - August. The most interesting aspect of such patterns is that while the June exponential curves occurs at SST larger than 28°C, the curve corresponding to September takes place at lower SSTs, suggesting that transient activity in this period is necessary to enhance tropical convective activity during the latter part of the summer rains in the region. This is exactly the period when PKE increases over the Intra Americas Seas and the eastern tropical Pacific. A more comprehensive qualitative model is proposed to connect the various dynamical elements in the region that result in the MSD. This new model presents a more complicated picture of the regional climate dynamics than various theories have proposed.

Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Thorne, James H.

2015-01-01

The BCM is a fine-scale hydrologic model that uses detailed maps of soils, geology, topography, and transient monthly or daily maps of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and precipitation to generate maps of recharge, runoff, snow pack, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. With these comprehensive environmental inputs and experienced scientific analysis, the BCM provides resource managers with important hydrologic and ecologic understanding of a landscape or basin at hillslope to regional scales. The model is calibrated using historical climate and streamflow data over the range of geologic materials specific to an area. Once calibrated, the model is used to translate climate-change data into hydrologic responses for a defined landscape, to provide managers an understanding of potential ecological risks and threats to water supplies and managed hydrologic systems. Although limited to estimates of unimpaired hydrologic conditions, estimates of impaired conditions, such as agricultural demand, diversions, or reservoir outflows can be incorporated into the calibration of the model to expand its utility. Additionally, the model can be linked to other models, such as groundwater-flow models (that is, MODFLOW) or the integrated hydrologic model (MF-FMP), to provide information about subsurface hydrologic processes. The model can be applied at a relatively small scale, but also can be applied to large-scale national and international river basins.

Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico - GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Maasch, Kirk A.; Saltzman, Barry

1989-01-01

The NCAR Community Climate Model GCM is presently used to investigate the possible effects on regional and hemispheric climates of reduced SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, in view of delta-O-18 records and terrestrial evidence for at least two major glacial meltwater discharges after the last glacial maximum. Three numerical experiments have been conducted with imposed gulfwide SST coolings of 3, 6, and 12 C; in all cases, significant reductions arise in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, together with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere.

Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the GISS 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric GCM to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

Explanatory ecological factors for the persistence of desiccation-sensitive seeds in transient soil seed banks: Quercus ilex as a case study

PubMed Central

Joët, Thierry; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Capelli, Mathilde; Dussert, Stéphane; Morin, Xavier

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Dominant tree species in northern temperate forests, for example oak and beech, produce desiccation-sensitive seeds. Despite the potentially major influence of this functional trait on the regeneration and distribution of species under climate change, little is currently known about the ecological determinants of the persistence of desiccation-sensitive seeds in transient soil seed banks. Knowing which key climatic and microsite factors favour seed survival will help define the regeneration niche for species whose seeds display extreme sensitivity to environmental stress Methods Using the Mediterranean Holm oak (Quercus ilex) forest as a model system, an in situ time-course monitoring of seed water status and viability was performed during the unfavourable winter season in two years with contrasting rainfall, at an instrumented site with detailed climate records. In parallel, the characteristics of the microhabitat and their influence on the post-winter water status and viability of seeds were investigated in a regional survey of 33 woodlands representative of the French distribution of the species. Key Results Time-course monitoring of seed water status in natural conditions confirmed that in situ desiccation is the main abiotic cause of mortality in winter. Critical water contents could be reached in a few days during drought spells. Seed dehydration rates were satisfactorily estimated using integrative climate proxies including vapour pressure deficit and potential evapotranspiration. Seed water status was therefore determined by the balance between water uptake after a rainfall event and water loss during dry periods. Structural equation modelling of microhabitat factors highlighted the major influence of canopy openness and resulting incident radiation on the ground. Conclusions This study provides part of the knowledge required to implement species distribution models which incorporate their regeneration niche. It is an important step forward in evaluating the ecological consequences of increasing winter drought and environmental filtering due to climate change on the regeneration of the most dominant Mediterranean tree species. PMID:26420203

The Southern Ocean's role in ocean circulation and climate transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, A. F.; Stewart, A.; Hines, S.; Adkins, J. F.

2017-12-01

The ventilation of deep and intermediate density classes at the surface of the Southern Ocean impacts water mass modification and the air-sea exchange of heat and trace gases, which in turn influences the global overturning circulation and Earth's climate. Zonal variability occurs along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Antarctic margins related to flow-topography interactions, variations in surface boundary conditions, and exchange with northern basins. Information about these zonal variations, and their impact on mass and tracer transport, are suppressed when the overturning is depicted as a two-dimensional (depth-latitude) streamfunction. Here we present an idealized, multi-basin, time-dependent circulation model that applies residual circulation theory in the Southern Ocean and allows for zonal water mass transfer between different ocean basins. This model efficiently determines the temporal evolution of the ocean's stratification, ventilation and overturning strength in response to perturbations in the external forcing. With this model we explore the dynamics that lead to transitions in the circulation structure between multiple, isolated cells and a three-dimensional, "figure-of-eight," circulation in which traditional upper and lower cells are interleaved. The transient model is also used to support a mechanistic explanation of the hemispheric asymmetry and phase lag associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events during the last glacial period. In particular, the 200 year lag in southern hemisphere temperatures, following a perturbation in North Atlantic deep water formation, depends critically on the migration of Southern Ocean isopycnal outcropping in response to low-latitude stratification changes. Our results provide a self-consistent dynamical framework to explain various ocean overturning transitions that have occurred over the Earth's last 100,000 years, and motivate an exploration of these mechanisms in more sophisticated climate models.

Equatorial waves simulated by the NCAR community climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Xinhua; Chen, Tsing-Chang

1988-01-01

The equatorial planetary waves simulated by the NCAR CCM1 general circulation model were investigated in terms of space-time spectral analysis (Kao, 1968; Hayashi, 1971, 1973) and energetic analysis (Hayashi, 1980). These analyses are particularly applied to grid-point data on latitude circles. In order to test some physical factors which may affect the generation of tropical transient planetary waves, three different model simulations with the CCM1 (the control, the no-mountain, and the no-cloud experiments) were analyzed.

A Realization of Bias Correction Method in the GMAO Coupled System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Yehui; Koster, Randal; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max

2018-01-01

Over the past several decades, a tremendous effort has been made to improve model performance in the simulation of the climate system. The cold or warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the tropics is still a problem common to most coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). The precipitation biases in CGCMs are also accompanied by SST and surface wind biases. The deficiencies and biases over the equatorial oceans through their influence on the Walker circulation likely contribute the precipitation biases over land surfaces. In this study, we introduce an approach in the CGCM modeling to correct model biases. This approach utilizes the history of the model's short-term forecasting errors and their seasonal dependence to modify model's tendency term and to minimize its climate drift. The study shows that such an approach removes most of model climate biases. A number of other aspects of the model simulation (e.g. extratropical transient activities) are also improved considerably due to the imposed pre-processed initial 3-hour model drift corrections. Because many regional biases in the GEOS-5 CGCM are common amongst other current models, our approaches and findings are applicable to these other models as well.

Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

PubMed

Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

2012-07-10

Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2009-06-11

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Development of a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Gesch, Dean B.; Carlson, Carl S.

2013-01-01

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to simulate both groundwater flow and solute (salt) transport to evaluate the groundwater system response to sea-level rise. The model was constructed using geologic and spatial information to represent the island geometry, boundaries, and physical properties and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation technique. An initial transient solute-transport simulation was used to establish the freshwater-saltwater boundary for a final calibrated steady-state model of groundwater flow. This model was developed as part of an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program to improve capabilities for predicting potential climate-change effects and provide the necessary tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse impacts.

An investigation of thermal comfort inside a bus during heating period within a climatic chamber.

PubMed

Pala, Uzeyir; Oz, H Ridvan

2015-05-01

By this study, it was aimed to define a testing and calculation model for thermal comfort assessment of a bus HVAC design and to compare effects of changing parameters on passenger's thermal comfort. For this purpose, a combined theoretical and experimental work during heating period inside a coach was carried out. The bus was left under 20 °C for more than 7 h within a climatic chamber and all heat sources were started at the beginning of a standard test. To investigate effects of fast transient conditions on passengers' physiology and thermal comfort, temperatures, air humidity and air velocities were measured. Human body was considered as one complete piece composed of core and skin compartments and the Transient Energy Balance Model developed by Gagge et al. in 1971 was used to calculate changes in thermal parameters between passenger bodies and bus interior environment. Depending on the given initial and environmental conditions, the graphs of passengers Thermal Sensation and Thermal Discomfort Level were found. At the end, a general mathematical model supported with a related experimental procedure was developed for the use of automotive HVAC engineers and scientists working on thermal comfort as a human dimension. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2017-10-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity characterizes the Earth's long-term global temperature response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has reached almost iconic status as the single number that describes how severe climate change will be. The consensus on the 'likely' range for climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C today is the same as given by Jule Charney in 1979, but now it is based on quantitative evidence from across the climate system and throughout climate history. The quest to constrain climate sensitivity has revealed important insights into the timescales of the climate system response, natural variability and limitations in observations and climate models, but also concerns about the simple concepts underlying climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, which opens avenues to better understand and constrain the climate response to forcing. Estimates of the transient climate response are better constrained by observed warming and are more relevant for predicting warming over the next decades. Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 °C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end.

Quantifying Tropical Glacier Mass Balance Sensitivity to Climate Change Through Regional-Scale Modeling and The Randolph Glacier Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.

2017-12-01

Quantifying mass balance sensitivity to climate change is essential for forecasting glacier evolution and deciphering climate signals embedded in archives of past glacier changes. Ideally, these quantifications result from decades of field measurement, remote sensing, and a hierarchy modeling approach, but in data-sparse regions, such as the Himalayas and tropical Andes, regional-scale modeling rooted in first principles provides a first-order picture. Previous regional-scaling modeling studies have applied a surface energy and mass balance approach in order to quantify equilibrium line altitude sensitivity to climate change. In this study, an expanded regional-scale surface energy and mass balance model is implemented to quantify glacier-wide mass balance sensitivity to climate change for tropical Andean glaciers. Data from the Randolph Glacier Inventory are incorporated, and additional physical processes are included, such as a dynamic albedo and cloud-dependent atmospheric emissivity. The model output agrees well with the limited mass balance records for tropical Andean glaciers. The dominant climate variables driving interannual mass balance variability differ depending on the climate setting. For wet tropical glaciers (annual precipitation >0.75 m y-1), temperature is the dominant climate variable. Different hypotheses for the processes linking wet tropical glacier mass balance variability to temperature are evaluated. The results support the hypothesis that glacier-wide mass balance on wet tropical glaciers is largely dominated by processes at the lowest elevation where temperature plays a leading role in energy exchanges. This research also highlights the transient nature of wet tropical glaciers - the vast majority of tropical glaciers and a vital regional water resource - in an anthropogenic warming world.

Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, J.

2017-12-01

Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

Application of MODFLOW’s farm process to California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia; Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Belitz, Kenneth

2008-01-01

landscape processes. The FMP provides coupled simulation of the ground-water and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle for irrigated and non-irrigated areas. A dynamic allocation of ground-water recharge and ground-water pumping is simulated on the basis of residual crop-water demand after surface-water deliveries and root uptake from shallow ground water. The FMP links with the Streamflow Routing Package SFR1) to facilitate the simulated conveyance of surface-water deliveries. Ground-water Pumpage through both single-aquifer and multi-node wells, irrigation return flow, and variable irrigation efficiencies also are simulated by the FMP. The simulated deliveries and ground-water pumpage in the updated model reflect climatic differences, differences among defined water-balance regions, and changes in the waterdelivery system, during the 1961–2003 simulation period. The model is designed to accept forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the potential effects on surface-water delivery, ground-water pumpage, and ground-water storage in response to climate change. The model provides a detailed transient analysis of changes in ground-water availability in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, and changes in irrigated agriculture.

Glaciological reconstruction of Holocene ice margins in northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, S. D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.

2014-12-01

The past few decades of climate warming have brought overall margin retreat to the Greenland Ice Sheet. In order to place recent and projected changes in context, we are undertaking a collaborative field-modeling study that aims to reconstruct the Holocene history of ice-margin fluctuation near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W), and also along the North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W). Fieldwork reported by Kelly et al. (2013) reveals that ice in the study areas was less extensive than at present ca. 4700 (GIS) and ca. 880 (NIC) cal. years BP, presumably in response to a warmer climate. We are now exploring Holocene ice-climate coupling using the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM). Our approach is to first test what imposed climate anomalies can afford steady state ice margins in accord with field data. A second test encompasses transient simulation of the Holocene, with climate boundary conditions supplied by existing paleo runs of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and a climate forcing signal derived from Greenland ice cores. In both cases, the full ice sheet is simulated at 10 km resolution with nested domains at 0.5 km for the study areas. UMISM experiments are underway, and results will be reported at the meeting.

Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

2010-05-01

According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

Idealized climate change simulations with a high-resolution physical model: HadGEM3-GC2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senior, Catherine A.; Andrews, Timothy; Burton, Chantelle; Chadwick, Robin; Copsey, Dan; Graham, Tim; Hyder, Pat; Jackson, Laura; McDonald, Ruth; Ridley, Jeff; Ringer, Mark; Tsushima, Yoko

2016-06-01

Idealized climate change simulations with a new physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC2 from The Met Office Hadley Centre are presented and contrasted with the earlier MOHC model, HadGEM2-ES. The role of atmospheric resolution is also investigated. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is 1.9 K/2.1 K at N216/N96 and Effective Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is 3.1 K/3.2 K at N216/N96. These are substantially lower than HadGEM2-ES (TCR: 2.5 K; ECS: 4.6 K) arising from a combination of changes in the size of climate feedbacks. While the change in the net cloud feedback between HadGEM3 and HadGEM2 is relatively small, there is a change in sign of its longwave and a strengthening of its shortwave components. At a global scale, there is little impact of the increase in atmospheric resolution on the future climate change signal and even at a broad regional scale, many features are robust including tropical rainfall changes, however, there are some significant exceptions. For the North Atlantic and western Europe, the tripolar pattern of winter storm changes found in most CMIP5 models is little impacted by resolution but for the most intense storms, there is a larger percentage increase in number at higher resolution than at lower resolution. Arctic sea-ice sensitivity shows a larger dependence on resolution than on atmospheric physics.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

PubMed Central

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-01-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state. PMID:27461560

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-07-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M

2016-07-27

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or "committed" warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

Impacts of northern Tibetan Plateau on East Asian summer rainfall via modulating midlatitude transient eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Shi, Ning; Zhang, Leying; Ma, Jing

2017-08-01

Roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in forming and changing the seasonal Asian climate system have been widely explored. However, little is known about modulation effects of the TP on extratropical transient eddies (TEs) and subsequent synoptic responses of the East Asian rainfall. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with a slab ocean model is employed to highlight the important role of the TP in regulating the upper-tropospheric transient wave train. Comparison between sensitivity experiments with and without the TP shows that the northern TP excites a strong anomalous anticyclone, which shifts the upper-level East Asian westerly jet northward and helps transfer barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow to the synoptic TE flow. The transient wave train is primarily shifted northward by northern TP and is forced to propagate southeastward along the eastern flank of the TP until reaching eastern China. Before the strengthening of monsoonal southerlies, the TP-modulated transient wave train cools the troposphere, which decreases the static stability over northern China. Meanwhile, the associated anomalous warm advection induces ascending motion, leading to excessive rainfall by releasing unstable energy as the southerly strengthens. Due to the southeastward propagation of the wave train, anomalous heavy rainfall subsequently appears over eastern China from north to south, which increases day-to-day rainfall variation in this region. Additionally, occurrence of this upper-tropospheric transient wave train associated with low-level southerly peak is substantially increased by northern TP.

Modeling the potential effects of climate change on high elevation vegetation in the Olympic Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

1995-06-01

Subalpine and alpine vegetation may be particularly sensitive to climatic change, such as expected temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns with global warming. The gap replacement model ZELIG was modified and used to examine transient and steady-state changes in altitudinal treeline, tree species distribution, and forest structure and composition along elevation gradients in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, under a range of temperature and precipitation changes. Changes in vegetation pattern were examined for north vs. south aspects, and wet (southwest) vs. dry (northeast) regions of the mountains. The seedling establishment subroutine in ZELIG was improved to specifically model the complexities ofmore » tree invasion in subalpine meadows and include empirical data. A function allowing for stand replacement fire was also added in order to examine the role of altered disturbance regimes on vegetation change. Results indicate that distribution of tree species will change under various climate change scenarios, but future elevation of treeline depends greatly on precipitation levels, disturbance frequency, and aspect.« less

Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalto, J.; Karjalainen, O.; Hjort, J.; Luoto, M.

2018-05-01

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.

Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanathan, V.; Callis, L.; Cess, R.; Hansen, J.; Isaksen, I.

1987-01-01

The paper considers trace gas-climate effects including the greenhouse effect of polyatomic trace gases, the nature of the radiative-chemical interactions, and radiative-dynamical interactions in the stratosphere, and the role of these effects in governing stratospheric climate change. Special consideration is given to recent developments in the investigations of the role of oceans in governing the transient climate responses, and a time-dependent estimate of the potential trace gas warming from the preindustrial era to the early 21st century. The importance of interacting modeling and observational efforts is emphasized. One of the problems remaining on the observational front is the lack of certainty in current estimates of the rate of growth of CO, O3, and NOx; the primary challenge is the design of a strategy that will minimize the sampling errors.

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.;

Regional Climate Sensitivity- and Historical-Based Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphaël.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2018-05-01

Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate.

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

2015-01-01

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

Arctic climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M.

2010-12-01

Recent warming and record summer sea-ice area minimums have spurred expressions of concern for arctic ecosystems, permafrost, and polar bear populations, among other things. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to deliberately cancel the anthropogenic temperature rise has been put forth as a possible solution to restoring Arctic (and global) climate to modern conditions. However, climate is particularly sensitive in the northern high latitudes, responding easily to radiative forcing changes. To that end, we explore the extent to which tropical injections of stratospheric sulfate aerosol can accomplish regional cancellation in the Arctic. We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 global climate model to execute simulations with combinations of doubled CO2 and imposed stratospheric sulfate burdens to investigate the effects on high latitude climate. We further explore the sensitivity of the polar climate to ocean dynamics by running a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics, transiently and to equilibrium respectively. We find that, although annual, global mean temperature cancellation is accomplished, there is over-cooling on land in Arctic summer, but residual warming in Arctic winter, which is largely due to atmospheric circulation changes. Furthermore, the spatial extent of these features and their concurrent impacts on sea-ice properties are modified by the inclusion of ocean dynamical feedbacks.

Vadose zone controls on damping of climate-induced transient recharge fluxes in U.S. agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurdak, Jason

2017-04-01

Understanding the physical processes in the vadose zone that link climate variability with transient recharge fluxes has particular relevance for the sustainability of groundwater-supported irrigated agriculture and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has well-documented influence on precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, infiltration flux, and can augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Here the behavior and damping depth of climate-induced transient water flux in the vadose zone is explored. The damping depth is the depth in the vadose zone that the flux variation damps to 5% of the land surface variation. Steady-state recharge occurs when the damping depth is above the water table, and transient recharge occurs when the damping depth is below the water table. Findings are presented from major agroecosystems of the United States (U.S.), including the High Plains, Central Valley, California Coastal Basin, and Mississippi Embayment aquifer systems. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is used to identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). SSA results indicate that nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. Results from HYDRUS-1D simulations indicate that transient water flux through the vadose zone are controlled by highly nonlinear interactions between mean infiltration flux and infiltration period related to the modes of climate variability and the local soil textures, layering, and depth to the water table. Simulation results for homogeneous profiles generally show that shorter-period climate oscillations, smaller mean fluxes, and finer-grained soil textures generally produce damping depths closer to land surface. Simulation results for layered soil textures indicate more complex responses in the damping depth, including the finding that finer-textured layers in a coarser soil profile generally result in damping depths closer to land surface, while coarser-textured layers in coarser soil profile result in damping depths deeper in the vadose zone. Findings from this study improve understanding of how vadose zone properties influences transient recharge flux and damp climate variability signals in groundwater systems, and have important implications for sustainable management of groundwater resources and coupled agroecosystems under future climate variability and change.

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, T.; Stevens, B. B.

2015-12-01

Current climate models exhibit equilibrium climate sensitivities to a doubling of CO2 of 2.0-4.6 K and a weak increase of global mean precipitation. But inferences from the observational record place climate sensitivity near the lower end of the range, and indicate that models underestimate changes in certain aspects of the hydrological cycle under warming. Here we show that both these discrepancies can be explained by a controversial hypothesis of missing negative tropical feedbacks in climate models, known as the iris-effect: Expanding dry and clear regions in a warming climate yield a negative feedback as more infrared radiation can escape to space through this metaphorical opening iris. At the same time the additional infrared cooling of the atmosphere must be balanced by latent heat release thereby accelerating the hydrological cycle. Alternative suggestions of too little aerosol cooling, missing volcanic eruptions, or insufficient ocean heat uptake in models may explain a slow observed transient warming, but are not able to explain the observed enhanced hydrological cycle. We propose that a temperature-dependency of the extent to which precipitating convective clouds cluster or aggregate into larger clouds constitutes a plausible physical mechanism for the iris-effect. On a large scale, organized convective states are dryer than disorganized convection and therefore radiate more in the longwave to space. Thus, if a warmer atmosphere can host more organized convection, then this represents one possible mechanism for an iris-effect. The challenges in modeling, understanding and possibly quantifying a temperature-dependency of convection are, however, substantial.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachsel, M.; Rehfeld, K.; Telford, R.; Laepple, T.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution.

Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Kjellström, Erik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sonnenborg, Torben; Meier, Markus; Grinsted, Aslak

2015-04-01

Regional climate models have been used extensively since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region published in 2008, not the least for studies of Europe (and including the Baltic Sea catchment area). Therefore, conclusions regarding climate model results have a better foundation than was the case for the first BACC report of 2008. This presentation will report model results regarding future climate. What is the state of understanding about future human-driven climate change? We will cover regional models, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, ocean modelling and sea-level change as it is projected for the Baltic Sea region. Collections of regional model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for example, financed through the European 5th Framework Programme and the World Climate Research Programme Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, have made it possible to obtain an increasingly robust estimation of model uncertainty. While the first Baltic Sea assessment mainly used four simulations from the European 5th Framework Programme PRUDENCE project, an ensemble of 13 transient regional simulations with twice the horizontal resolution reaching the end of the 21st century has been available from the ENSEMBLES project; therefore it has been possible to obtain more quantitative assessments of model uncertainty. The literature about future climate change in the Baltic Sea region is largely built upon the ENSEMBLES project. Also within statistical downscaling, a considerable number of papers have been published, encompassing now the application of non-linear statistical models, projected changes in extremes and correction of climate model biases. The uncertainty of hydrological change has received increasing attention since the previous Baltic Sea assessment. Several studies on the propagation of uncertainties originating in GCMs, RCMs, and emission scenarios are presented. The number of studies on uncertainties related to downscaling and impact models is relatively small, but more are emerging. A large number of coupled climate-environmental scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea have been performed within the BONUS+ projects (ECOSUPPORT, INFLOW, AMBER and Baltic-C (2009-2011)), using various combinations of output from GCMs, RCMs, hydrological models and scenarios for load and emission of nutrients as forcing for Baltic Sea models. Such a large ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea has never before been produced and enables for the first time an estimation of uncertainties.

Role of the ocean's AMOC in setting the uptake efficiency of transient tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanou, A.; Marshall, J.; Kelley, M.; Scott, J. R.

2017-12-01

The central role played by the ocean's Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the uptake and sequestration of transient tracers is studied in a series of experiments with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean circulation models. Forced by observed atmospheric time series of CFC-11, both models exhibit realistic distributions in the ocean, with similar surface biases but different response over time. To better understand what controls uptake, we ran idealized forcing experiments in which the AMOC strength varied over a wide range, bracketing the observations. We found that differences in the strength and vertical scale of the AMOC largely accounted for the different rates of CFC-11 uptake and vertical distribution thereof. A two-box model enables us to quantify and relate uptake efficiency of passive tracers to AMOC strength and how uptake efficiency decreases in time. We also discuss the relationship between passive tracer and heat uptake efficiency, of which the latter controls the transient climate response to anthropogenic forcing in the North Atlantic. We find that heat uptake efficiency is substantially less (by about a factor of 5) than that for a passive tracer.

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Quantification of Transient Changes of Thermospheric Neutral Density

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-24

Pedersen conductivity at high latitudes. Based on Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites...the model. The seasonal variations of the ratio have been investigated for both hemispheres, and an interhemispheric asymmetry has been identified...Satellite Program (DMSP) F- 15, F-16, F-17 and F-18 satellites and the Iridium satellite constellation is presented, using an inverse procedure for high

A common fallacy in climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Tachiiri, K.

2012-04-01

We discuss the assessment of model ensembles such as that arising from the CMIP3 coordinated multi-model experiments. An important aspect of this is not merely the closeness of the models to observations in absolute terms but also the reliability of the ensemble spread as an indication of uncertainty. In this context, it has been widely argued that the multi-model ensemble of opportunity is insufficiently broad to adequately represent uncertainties regarding future climate change. For example, the IPCC AR4 summarises the consensus with the sentence: "Those studies also suggest that the current AOGCMs may not cover the full range of uncertainty for climate sensitivity." Similar claims have been made in the literature for other properties of the climate system, including the transient climate response and efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Comparison of model outputs with observations of the climate system forms an essential component of model assessment and is crucial for building our confidence in model predictions. However, methods for undertaking this comparison are not always clearly justified and understood. Here we show that the popular approach which forms the basis for the above claims, of comparing the ensemble spread to a so-called "observationally-constrained pdf", can be highly misleading. Such a comparison will almost certainly result in disagreement, but in reality tells us little about the performance of the ensemble. We present an alternative approach based on an assessment of the predictive performance of the ensemble, and show how it may lead to very different, and rather more encouraging, conclusions. We additionally outline some necessary conditions for an ensemble (or more generally, a probabilistic prediction) to be challenged by an observation.

IPR 1.0: an efficient method for calculating solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, W.; Li, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change may alter the spatial distribution, composition, structure, and functions of plant communities. Transitional zones between biomes, or ecotones, are particularly sensitive to climate change. Ecotones are usually heterogeneous with sparse trees. The dynamics of ecotones are mainly determined by the growth and competition of individual plants in the communities. Therefore it is necessary to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants for understanding and predicting their responses to climate change. In this study, we developed an individual plant radiation model, IPR (version 1.0), to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities. The model is developed based on geometrical optical relationships assuming crowns of woody plants are rectangular boxes with uniform leaf area density. The model calculates the fractions of sunlit and shaded leaf classes and the solar radiation absorbed by each class, including direct radiation from the sun, diffuse radiation from the sky, and scattered radiation from the plant community. The solar radiation received on the ground is also calculated. We tested the model by comparing with the analytical solutions of random distributions of plants. The tests show that the model results are very close to the averages of the random distributions. This model is efficient in computation, and is suitable for ecological models to simulate long-term transient responses of plant communities to climate change.

Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

2016-01-01

Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from fossil midge assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Joos, Fortunat; Renssen, Hans; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Tinner, Willy

2017-02-01

Understanding past climate trends is key for reliable projections of global warming and associated risks and hazards. Uncomfortably large discrepancies between vegetation-based summer temperature reconstructions (mainly based on pollen) and climate model results have been reported for the current interglacial, the Holocene. For the Mediterranean region these reconstructions indicate cooler-than-present mid-Holocene summers, in contrast with expectations based on climate models and long-term changes in summer insolation. We present new quantitative and replicated Holocene summer temperature reconstructions based on fossil chironomid midges from the northern central Mediterranean region. The Holocene thermal maximum is reconstructed 9,000-5,000 years ago and estimated to have been 1-2 °C warmer in mean July temperature than the recent pre-industrial period, consistent with glacier and marine records, and with transient climate model runs. This combined evidence implies that widely used pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean area are significantly biased by precipitation or other forcings such as early land use. Our interpretation can resolve the previous discrepancy between climate models and quantitative palaeotemperature records for millennial-scale Holocene summer temperature trends in the Mediterranean region. It also suggests that pollen-based evidence for cool mid-Holocene summers in other semi-arid to arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere may have to be reconsidered, with potential implications for global-scale reconstructions.

On the Meaning of Feedback Parameter, Transient Climate Response, and the Greenhouse Effect: Basic Considerations and the Discussion of Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramm, Gerhard

2010-07-01

In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) the this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of about 255 K, and (c) the effect of the radiative anthropogenic forcing, considered as a perturbation to the natural system, is much smaller than the uncertainty involved in the solution of the model of Schneider and Mass. This uncertainty is mainly related to the empirical constants suggested by various authors and used for predicting the emission of infrared radiation by the Earth's skin. Furthermore, after inserting the absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric constituents and the exchange of sensible and latent heat between the Earth and the atmosphere into the model of Schneider and Mass the surface temperatures become appreciably lesser than the radiative equilibrium temperature. Moreover, neither the model of Schneider and Mass nor the Dines-type two-layer energy balance model for the Earth-atmosphere system, both contain the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere as an asymptotic solution, do not provide evidence for the existence of the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect if realistic empirical data are used.

Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Booth, Ben B B; Good, Peter

2017-12-01

The future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as "dry-season resilience" to predict the long-term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid-range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamics of Postcombustion CO2 Capture Plants: Modeling, Validation, and Case Study

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The capture of CO2 from power plant flue gases provides an opportunity to mitigate emissions that are harmful to the global climate. While the process of CO2 capture using an aqueous amine solution is well-known from experience in other technical sectors (e.g., acid gas removal in the gas processing industry), its operation combined with a power plant still needs investigation because in this case, the interaction with power plants that are increasingly operated dynamically poses control challenges. This article presents the dynamic modeling of CO2 capture plants followed by a detailed validation using transient measurements recorded from the pilot plant operated at the Maasvlakte power station in the Netherlands. The model predictions are in good agreement with the experimental data related to the transient changes of the main process variables such as flow rate, CO2 concentrations, temperatures, and solvent loading. The validated model was used to study the effects of fast power plant transients on the capture plant operation. A relevant result of this work is that an integrated CO2 capture plant might enable more dynamic operation of retrofitted fossil fuel power plants because the large amount of steam needed by the capture process can be diverted rapidly to and from the power plant. PMID:28413256

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non-stationary) relationship between lake surface temperature and air temperature. The data-model comparison helps partition the impacts of lake-specific processes such as energy balance, mixing, sedimentation and bioturbation. We provide new insight into the patterns, amplitudes, sensitivity, and mechanisms of African temperature change.

Responses of chemical erosion rates to transient perturbations in physical erosion rates, and implications for relationships between chemical and physical erosion rates in regolith-mantled hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, Ken L.; West, Nicole

2017-09-01

Understanding the relationship between chemical erosion rates (W) and physical erosion rates (E) is of wide interest due to their roles in driving landscape evolution, supplying nutrients to soils and streams, and modulating the global carbon cycle. Measured relationships between W and E vary around the globe, with some regions exhibiting positive correlations between W and E, some negative correlations, and others no correlation within uncertainty. Here we use a numerical model for mineral weathering in well-mixed ridgetop regolith to explore how complex W- E relationships can be generated by simple transient perturbations in E. We show that a Gaussian perturbation in E can produce positive or negative responses in W, and can result in a variety of hysteresis loops - clockwise, counterclockwise, or figure-eight - in plots of W against E. The nature of the transient response depends on the shape of the steady-state W- E relationship, which is set by regolith mineralogy, and the ratio of E to the maximum possible regolith production rate. The response time of W is controlled by the response time of soluble mineral concentrations at low E, where soluble mineral concentrations are low, and by the response time of regolith thickness at high E, where regolith thickness is low. These complex W- E relationships arise in the absence of variations in climate and lithology, which suggests that transients may account for some of the observed differences in W- E relationships among field sites, even among sites that share the same climate and lithology.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Trachsel, Mathias; Telford, Richard J.; Laepple, Thomas

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen, foraminifera or chironomids are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that in our model experiments the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We furthermore show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable, such as summer temperatures in the model's Arctic, are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution. Expert knowledge on the ecophysiological drivers of the proxies, as well as statistical methods that go beyond the cross validation on modern calibration datasets, are crucial to avoid misinterpretation.

Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tilmes, S.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Kinnison, Douglas E.

2009-06-27

A coupled chemistry climate model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model was used to perform a transient climate simulation to quantify the impact of geoengineered aerosols on atmospheric processes. In contrast to previous model studies, the impact on stratospheric chemistry, including heterogeneous chemistry in the polar regions, is considered in this simulation. In the geoengineering simulation, a constant stratospheric distribution of volcanic-sized, liquid sulfate aerosols is imposed in the period 2020–2050, corresponding to an injection of 2 Tg S/a. The aerosol cools the troposphere compared to a baseline simulation. Assuming an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario, globalmore » warming is delayed by about 40 years in the troposphere with respect to the baseline scenario. Large local changes of precipitation and temperatures may occur as a result of geoengineering. Comparison with simulations carried out with the Community Atmosphere Model indicates the importance of stratospheric processes for estimating the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the Earth’s climate. Changes in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry, especially faster heterogeneous reactions, reduce the recovery of the ozone layer in middle and high latitudes for the Southern Hemisphere. In the geoengineering case, the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole is delayed by about 30 years on the basis of this model simulation. For the Northern Hemisphere, a onefold to twofold increase of the chemical ozone depletion occurs owing to a simulated stronger polar vortex and colder temperatures compared to the baseline simulation, in agreement with observational estimates.« less

The dynamics of sediment size and transient erosional signals in heterogeneous lithologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, N. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Crosby, B. T.; Wehrs, K.; Willenbring, J. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment supply and transport dynamics convey, transform, and destroy climatic and tectonic signals in channels and depositional landforms. The South Fork Eel River (SFER) in the northern California Coast Ranges, USA exhibits characteristics suggestive of transient landscape adjustment: strath terraces, knickpoints, and headwater terrain eroding more slowly than downstream areas. A tectonically-induced uplift wave is commonly invoked as the driver of transience in this region. The wave is attributed to the northward migration of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). Nested basin-mean erosion rates calculated from 10Be detrital quartz sand increase down the mainstem of the SFER, roughly coinciding with the direction of MTJ migration. This erosion trend is attributed to the proportion of adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions upstream of the locations where the nested 10Be samples were collected. Adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions are separated by a broad knickzone that contains 28% of relief along the mainstem. Knickzone propagation and considerable stream incision is suggested by projection of the upper SFER above the knickzone through the highest flight of strath terraces. Field observations and outcomes of numerical simulations using the Landlab modeling framework are incompatible with uplift modeled as a wave. Alternative uplift and variable sediment flux scenarios more reliably predict the pattern of terraces, knickpoints, and accelerated erosion. In the natural landscape, landforms and erosion rates follow the patterns expected for transient erosion along the mainstem, although a local base level lowering signal is not resolvable in many tributaries. Topographic relief, presence of knickpoints, and rock properties differ in the SFER tributaries. The tributaries draining mélange are over-steepened by boulders detached from hillslopes by earthflows. Here, we propose a framework in which rock properties and sediment size are a key control upon preservation of a base level change signal in low order streams. This result implies that transient erosion signals inferred using topography can be transformed or destroyed in certain lithologies, complicating efforts to infer climatic and tectonic history from topography.

Deglacial Evolution of Atlantic Mid-Depth and Intermediate-Depth Water Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppo, D.; Gebbie, G.; Huang, K. F.; Guo, W.; Schmittner, A.; Liu, Z.; Curry, W. B.

2014-12-01

Deglacial variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) feature prominently in hypotheses of deglacial climate variability and atmospheric CO2rise. However, there is lingering uncertainty in the glacial deepwater mass configuration (e.g. Gebbie, 2014) and deglacial AMOC variability is even more poorly understood. For example, the deglacial evolution of the contribution of northern and southern source waters to the middle and intermediate depths of the Atlantic is still vigorously debated. Here, we evaluate the evolution of subsurface Atlantic ventilation, emphasizing middle and intermediate depths, by comparing new and published records of water mass variability to output from transient model simulations designed to provide insight into the climatic and oceanographic effects of a dramatic reduction in the AMOC, such as apparently occurred during Heinrich Stadial 1 (Liu et al., 2009; Schmittner and Lund, 2014). Gebbie, G. (2014), How much did Glacial North Atlantic Water shoal? Paleoceanography, 29, 190-209, doi: 10.1002/2013PA002557. Liu, Z., B. Otto-Bliesner, F. He, E. Brady, R. Thomas, P. U. Clark, A. E. Carlson, J. Lynch-Stieglitz, W. Curry, E. Brook, D. Erickson, R. Jacob, J. Kutzbach, J., and J. Chen (2009), Transient climate simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bølling-Allerød warming, Science, 325, 310-314. Schmittner, A., and Lund, D. C. (submitted), Carbon Isotopes Support Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline as a Trigger for Early Deglacial CO2 rise Climate of the Past Discussions.

Emergent reorganization of an evolving experimental landscape under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2014-12-01

Understanding landscape re-organization under changing climatic forcing is fundamental to advancing our understanding of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations, and interpreting the stratigraphic record for past climates by incorporating possible regime shifts. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (for a constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. By studying the space-time structure of the individual erosional and depositional events in terms of their size, location, clustering, and total volume we report complex space-time patterns of change which are scale-dependent and bounded by the river network topology. At the same time, the river network topology itself adjusts at smaller scales, with new channels added to accommodate increased hillslope erosional transport, further adjusting the landscape. Some new ideas related to landscape variability and entropy evolution at different scales during steady and transient states and the possibility of analyzing the self-organization with Optimal Mass Transport (OMT) metrics to infer possible underlying "optimality" principles governing the re-organization will also be presented.

Putting the Weather Back Into Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Stainforth, David A.

2014-05-01

The literature contains a variety of definitions of climate, and the emphasis in these definitions has changed over time. Defining climate as a mean value is, of course, both limiting and misleading; definitions of climate based on averages have been deprecated as far back as 1931 [1]. In the context of current efforts to produce climate predictions for use in climate adaptation, it is timely to consider how well various definitions of climate serve the research for applications community. From a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective it is common to associate climate with a system's natural measure (or "attractor" if such an object exists). Such a definition is not easily applied to physical systems where we have limited observations over a restricted period of time; the duration of 30 years is often mentioned today and the origin of this period is discussed. Given a dynamic system in which parameters are evolving in time, the view of climate as a natural measure becomes problematic as, by definition, there may be no attractor per se. Attractors defined for particular parameter values cannot be expected to have any association with the probability of states under transient changes in the values of that parameter. Alternatively, distributions may be determined which reflect the transient situation, based on (rather broad) additional assumptions regarding the state of the system at some point in the past (say, an ice age planet vs an interglacial planet). Such distributions reflect many of the properties one would hope to be represented in a generalised definition of the system's climate. Here we trace how definitions of climate have changed over time and highlight a number of properties of definitions of climate which would facilitate common use across researchers, from observers to theoreticians, from climate modellers to mathematicians. We show while periodic changes in parameter values (such as those found in an annual cycle or a diurnal cycle) are easily incorporated within the traditional nonlinear dynamical systems view, non-periodic or secular changes (such as those due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations) yield an open challenge. We argue the need both for clarifying and for clearly meeting the open challenges of defining climate in relation to the state of an evolving system, and suggest a path forward. [1] Miller, A.A., 1931: Climatology. First Ed. Methuen.

Application of a 3D Model to Assess the Thermo-Hydrological Effects of Climate Warming in a Discontinuous Permafrost Zone, Umiujaq, Northern Quebec, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhizkar, M.; Therrien, R.; Molson, J. W. H.; Lemieux, J. M.; Fortier, R.; Talbot Poulin, M. C.; Therrien, P.; Ouellet, M.

2016-12-01

The rate of permafrost degradation in northern Quebec, Canada, has increased over the last two decades due to climate warming, which is expected to significantly modify the hydrogeologic and thermal regimes. Groundwater accessibility is also expected to increase and could become a significant source of drinking water for northern communities. In this project, an integrated surface water / groundwater flow model, HydroGeoSphere, is being applied to a 2 km2catchment in northern Quebec to assess the effect of future climate change on thermo-hydrological conditions as well as on changes in groundwater availability for northern communities. The catchment is located in a discontinuous but widespread permafrost zone near Umiujaq (northern Quebec, Canada) where the subsurface consists of a 10-30 m-thick coarse-grained glaciofluvial layer forming a good aquifer beneath a permafrost-rich silty marine unit. A conceptual thermo-hydrological model of the catchment has been built from field data collected over 5 years, including hydraulic heads, stream flow rates, subsurface geology, as well as ground temperatures and thermal fluxes around two 10-20 m-thick permafrost mounds. The integrated 3D numerical model includes variably-saturated groundwater flow with transient recharge, as well as advective-conductive heat transport driven by transient air temperatures (varying from about -40 to +30 ºC) and a geothermal heat flux of 60 mW/m2. The model is calibrated to observed heads and temperatures by coupling PEST with HydroGeoSphere, allowing changes in hydraulic and thermal conductivities. Preliminary results are consistent with the available observed data, however non-uniqueness remains an important issue. The simulations are providing useful predictions of the permafrost thaw rate and associated changes to the hydrogeological flow system, including increased aquifer recharge following permafrost thaw.

Diversity, Adaptability and Ecosystem Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keribin, Rozenn; Friend, Andrew

2013-04-01

Our ability to predict climate change and anticipate its impacts depends on Earth System Models (ESMs) and their ability to account for the high number of interacting components of the Earth System and to gauge both their influence on the climate and the feedbacks they induce. The land carbon cycle is a component of ESMs that is still poorly constrained. Since the 1990s dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have become the main tool through which we understand the interactions between plant ecosystems and the climate. While DGVMs have made it clear the impacts of climate change on vegetation could be dramatic, predicting the dieback of rainforests and massive carbon losses from various ecosystems, they are highly variable both in their composition and their predictions. Their treatment of plant diversity and competition in particular vary widely and are based on highly-simplified relationships that do not account for the multiple levels of diversity and adaptability found in real plant ecosystems. The aim of this GREENCYCLES II project is to extend an individual-based DGVM to treat the diversity of physiologies found in plant communities and evaluate their effect if any on the ecosystem's transient dynamics and resilience. In the context of the InterSectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), an initiative coordinated by a team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that aims to provide fast-track global impact assessments for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, we compare 6 vegetation models including 4 DGVMs under different climate change scenarios and analyse how the very different treatments of plant diversity and interactions from one model to the next affect the models' results. We then investigate a new, more mechanistic method of incorporating plant diversity into the DGVM "Hybrid" based on ecological tradeoffs mediated by plant traits and individual-based competition for light.

Fire and reduced vigor facilitate vegetation shifts: MC2 results for the conterminous US with CMIP5 climate futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.; Baker, B.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

Climate variability and a warming trend during the 21st century ensures fuel build-up and episodic catastrophic wildfires. We used downscaled (2.5 arcmin) CMIP5 climate futures from 20 models under RCP 8.5 to run the dynamic global vegetation model MC2 over the conterminous US and identify key drivers of land cover change. We show regional and temporal differences in the magnitude of projected C losses due to fire over the 21st century. We also look at the vigor (NPP/LAI) of forest lands and estimate the loss in C capture due to declines in production as well as the increase in heterotrophic respiration due to increased mortality. We compare simulated the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial biomes and the risk of carbon losses through disturbance. We quantify uncertainty in model results by showing the distribution of possible future impacts under 20 futures. We explore the effects of land use and highlight the challenges we met to simulate credible transient management practices throughout the 20th century and into the future.

nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Andrews, Timothy; Chadwick, Robin; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Lowe, Jason A.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2016-11-01

nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change - i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio - while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up-ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols.

Early Mars was wet but not warm: Erosion, fluvial features, liquid water habitats, and life below freezing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckay, C. P.; Davis, W. L.

1993-01-01

There is considerable evidence that Mars had liquid water early in its history and possibly at recurrent interval. It has generally been assumed that this implied that the climate was warmer as a result of a thicker CO2 atmosphere than at the present. However, recent models suggest that Mars may have had a thick atmosphere but may not have experienced mean annual temperatures above freezing. In this paper we report on models of liquid water formation and maintenance under temperatures well below freezing. Our studies are based on work in the north and south polar regions of Earth. Our results suggest that early Mars did have a thick atmosphere but precipitation and hence erosion was rare. Transient liquid water, formed under temperature extremes and maintained under thick ice covers, could account for the observed fluvial features. The main difference between the present climate and the early climate was that the total surface pressure was well above the triple point of water.

Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling of Late-Quaternary Variations in Pollen-Based Compositional Dissimilarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. W.; Blois, J.; Ferrier, S.; Manion, G.; Fitzpatrick, M.; Veloz, S.; He, F.; Liu, Z.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2011-12-01

In Quaternary paleoecology and paleoclimatology, compositionally dissimilar fossil assemblages usually indicate dissimilar environments; this relationship underpins assemblage-level techniques for paleoenvironmental reconstruction such as mutual climatic ranges or the modern analog technique. However, there has been relatively little investigation into the form of the relationship between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity. Here we apply generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM; Ferrier et al. 2007) as a tool for modeling the expected non-linear relationships between compositional and climatic dissimilarity. We use the CCSM3.0 transient paleoclimatic simulations from the SynTrace working group (Liu et al. 2009) and a new generation of fossil pollen maps from eastern North America (Blois et al. 2011) to 1) assess the spatial relationships between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity and 2) whether these spatial relationships change over time. We used a taxonomic list of 106 genus-level pollen types, six climatic variables (winter precipitation and mean temperature, summer precipitation and temperature, seasonality of precipitation, and seasonality of temperature) that were chosen to minimize collinearity, and a cross-referenced pollen and climate dataset mapped for time slices spaced 1000 years apart. When GDM was trained for one time slice, the correlation between predicted and observed spatial patterns of community dissimilarity for other times ranged between 0.3 and 0.73. The selection of climatic predictor variables changed over time, as did the form of the relationship between compositional turnover and climatic predictors. Summer temperature was the only variable selected for all time periods. These results thus suggest that the relationship between compositional dissimilarity in pollen assemblages (and, by implication, beta diversity in plant communities) and climatic dissimilarity can change over time, for reasons to be further studied.

A Possible Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, T. P.; Russotto, R. D.; Kravitz, B.

2016-12-01

The Paris accord signals an international effort to hold global temperature change below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, raising the question of what role solar climate engineering (SCE) might play in meeting this objective. However, avoiding continuing, long-term application of SCE with an ever increasing magnitude requires an "exit strategy", i. e., a plan to phase out SCE by removing stabilizing and removing CO2. Here we present results from a series of climate model runs that combine both CO2 and SCE transient forcings over a 200-year period (2000 to 2200). Our results confirm past results that maintaining both global surface air temperature (TA) and precipitation (P) at baseline levels is not feasible. They also demonstrate a quasi-linear relationship between changes in SCE and changes in P. Zonally-averaged changes in TA show, as expected, polar amplification of warming, but that enhancement scales uniformly with the change in global TA. We draw several conclusions from our results: (1) There are plausible scenarios in which SCE can be part of an integrated strategy to meet the temperature goals of the Paris accord. (2) Applying transient forcings can be used to maintain some, but not all, globally-averaged climate system variables (such as TA or P) at a prescribed baseline level. That globally-averaged stability, however, is achieved by averaging over changes in spatial distributions. These spatial changes create difficult issues regarding prediction of regional climate changes due to SCE and potential impacts on regional societies. (3) Our inability to predict interannual climate variability on the annual-to-decadal time scale suggests that it may take a decade or more to provide reliable detection and attribution of the global climate impacts of SCE following its inception (the so-called time of emergence). Furthermore, it will take much longer to determine regional impacts.

Debris supply to mountain glaciers and how it effects their sensitivity to climate change - A case study from the Chhota Shigri Glacier, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherler, D.; Egholm, D. L.

2017-12-01

Debris-covered glaciers are widespread in the Himalaya and other steep mountain ranges. They testify to active erosion of ice-free bedrock hillslopes that tower above valley glaciers, sometimes more than a kilometer high. It is well known that supraglacial debris cover significantly reduces surface ablation rates and thereby influences glacial mass balances and runoff. However, the dynamic evolution of debris cover along with climatic and topographic changes is poorly understood. Here, we present ice-free hillslope erosion rates derived from 10Be concentrations in the ablation-dominated medial moraine of the Chhota Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya. We combine our empirical, field-based approach with a numerical model of frost-related sediment production and glacial debris transport to (1) assess patterns of ice-free hillslope erosion that are permissible with observed patterns of debris cover, and (2) explore the coupled response of glaciers and ice-free hillslopes to climatic changes. Measured 10Be concentrations increase downglacier from 3×104 to 6×104 atoms (g quartz) -1, yielding hillslope erosion rates of 1.3-0.6 mm yr-1. The accumulation of 10Be during debris residence on the ice surface can only account for a small fraction (<20%) of the downglacier increase. Other potential explanations include (1) heterogeneous source areas with different average productions rates, and (2) homogeneous source areas but temporally variable erosion rates. We used the 10Be-derived hillslope erosion rates to define debris supply rates from ice-free bedrock hillslopes in the numerical ice and landscape evolution model iSOSIA. Based on available mass balance and ice thickness data, the calibrated model reproduces the medial moraine of the Chhota Shogri Glacier quite well, although uncertainties exist due to the transient disequilibrium of the glacier, i.e., the current debris cover was fed into the glacier during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus under different boundary conditions. We currently perform transient experiments during warming and cooling periods for testing models of frost-related and temperature-sensitive debris production, and for assessing the coupled sensitivity of hillslopes and glaciers to climate change.

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

2014-12-01

Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

IPR 1.0: an efficient method for calculating solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, W.; Li, J.

2014-07-01

Climate change may alter the spatial distribution, composition, structure and functions of plant communities. Transitional zones between biomes, or ecotones, are particularly sensitive to climate change. Ecotones are usually heterogeneous with sparse trees. The dynamics of ecotones are mainly determined by the growth and competition of individual plants in the communities. Therefore it is necessary to calculate the solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in order to understand and predict their responses to climate change. In this study, we developed an individual plant radiation model, IPR (version 1.0), to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities. The model is developed based on geometrical optical relationships assuming that crowns of woody plants are rectangular boxes with uniform leaf area density. The model calculates the fractions of sunlit and shaded leaf classes and the solar radiation absorbed by each class, including direct radiation from the sun, diffuse radiation from the sky, and scattered radiation from the plant community. The solar radiation received on the ground is also calculated. We tested the model by comparing with the results of random distribution of plants. The tests show that the model results are very close to the averages of the random distributions. This model is efficient in computation, and can be included in vegetation models to simulate long-term transient responses of plant communities to climate change. The code and a user's manual are provided as Supplement of the paper.

Evaluating simulated functional trait patterns and quantifying modelled trait diversity effects on simulated ecosystem fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.

2014-12-01

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically employ only a small set of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) to represent the vast diversity of observed vegetation forms and functioning. There is growing evidence, however, that this abstraction may not adequately represent the observed variation in plant functional traits, which is thought to play an important role for many ecosystem functions and for ecosystem resilience to environmental change. The geographic distribution of PFTs in these models is also often based on empirical relationships between present-day climate and vegetation patterns. Projections of future climate change, however, point toward the possibility of novel regional climates, which could lead to no-analog vegetation compositions incompatible with the PFT paradigm. Here, we present results from the Jena Diversity-DGVM (JeDi-DGVM), a novel traits-based vegetation model, which simulates a large number of hypothetical plant growth strategies constrained by functional tradeoffs, thereby allowing for a more flexible temporal and spatial representation of the terrestrial biosphere. First, we compare simulated present-day geographical patterns of functional traits with empirical trait observations (in-situ and from airborne imaging spectroscopy). The observed trait patterns are then used to improve the tradeoff parameterizations of JeDi-DGVM. Finally, focusing primarily on the simulated leaf traits, we run the model with various amounts of trait diversity. We quantify the effects of these modeled biodiversity manipulations on simulated ecosystem fluxes and stocks for both present-day conditions and transient climate change scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the coarse treatment of plant functional traits by current PFT-based vegetation models may contribute substantial uncertainty regarding carbon-climate feedbacks. Further development of trait-based models and further investment in global in-situ and spectroscopic plant trait observations are needed.

Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

2017-04-01

Climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is thought to be a good analogue for future climate warming. Though the driving mechanisms of the past and current climate evolution differ, analysis of the LIG climate may provide important insights for projections of future environmental changes. We do not know properly what was spatial distribution and magnitude of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to present. Sparse proxy data are attributed mostly to the continental margins, internal areas of ice sheets and particular regions of the World Ocean. Combining mathematical modeling and indirect evidence can help to identify driving mechanisms and feed-backs which formed climatic conditions of the LIG. In order to reproduce the LIG climate, we carried out transient numerical experiments using a fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) consisting of an AO GCM, which includes decription of the biosphere, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry ets. (INMCM), developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) and the models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrISM and AISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). Though the newest version of the INMCM has rather high spatial resolution, it canot be used in long transient numerical experimemts because of high computational demand. Coupling of the GrISM and AISM to the low resolution version of the INMCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmosphere and the ocean components of the ESM (spatial resolution 5˚×4˚, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 6 min. temporal resolution; 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block; 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution in the GrISM and AISM). We apply two different coupling strategies. AISM is incorporated into the ESM via using procedures of resampling and interpolation of the input fields of annually averaged air surface temperatures and precipitation fields generated by the INMCM. To provide interactive coupling of the INMCM and the GrISM, we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between sub-models. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland and calculates annual surface mass balance (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM). Orbital parameters of the LIG were set with 1 kyr step with further interpolation to 100 years. Assuming concentrations of greenhouse gases during the LIG were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. Climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to follow changes in orbital forcing. AISM and GrISM were asynchronously coupled to sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained fields of deviations of air surface temperature from preindustrial values correspond in general to the estimates made in earlier studies. Evaluated contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to the global sea level rise (approximately 2 m) supports the newest estimates based on model results and proxy data analysis.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

Climate Variability In The Euro-atlantic Sector As Simulated By Echam4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, I.; Corte-Real, J.; Ramos, A.; Conde, F.

The atmosphere is a fundamental component of the climate system and its influence in local and global climates results from its composition, structure and motion. The best available tools to simulate future climates are coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 (T42 L19)[1] being a very relevant exam- ple of such a model due to its elaborated parametrizations of physical processes. The purpose of this work is twofold : (1) to assess the ability of ECHAM4 in reproducing the reference climate of 1961-1990, over the Euro-Atlantic sector (29N-71N; 67W- 59E) in terms of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and total precipitation; (2) to evaluate the expected changes of the same climate elements in a warmer world. To attain the first goal the ECHAMSs control run output is compared with observed data obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU data set)[2-5]; to achieve the second objective, the modelSs control run is compared with its transient run forced by greenhouse gases. In both cases, comparisons are made in terms of mean values, variability in space and time and extremes. References [1] E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric gen- eral circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp. [2] M. Hulme, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, T. Jiang, E.M. Barrow, and C. Turney (1995), Construction of a 1961-90 European climatology for climate change impacts and mod- elling applications, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1333-1363. [3] M. Hulme (1994), The cost of climate data U a European experience, Weather, 49, 168-175. [4] M. Hulme, and M.G. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation clima- tologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Climate, 10, 1099-1113. 1 [5] C.J. Willmot, S.M. Robeson and M.J. Janis (1996), Comparison of approaches for estimating time-averaged precipitation using data from the United States, Int. J. Cli- matol., 16, 1103-1115. 2

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

of the present-day Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4. J. Climate, 2676-2695. Overeem, I ., R . S. Anderson, C. W. Wobus, G. D. Clow, F. E. Urban, and N...intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? APPROACH I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century...simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). I am including 14

Using a Very Large Ensemble to Examine the Role of the Ocean in Recent Warming Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, S. N.; Millar, R.; Otto, A.; Yamazaki, K.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Results from a very large (~10,000 member) perturbed physics and perturbed initial condition ensemble are presented for the period 1980 to present. A set of model versions that can shadow recent surface and upper ocean observations are identified and the range of uncertainty in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) assessed. This experiment uses the Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), a coupled model with fully dynamic atmosphere and ocean components as part of the climateprediction.net distributive computing project. Parameters are selected so that the model has good top of atmosphere radiative balance and simulations are run without flux adjustments that "nudge" the climate towards a realistic state, but have an adverse effect on important ocean processes. This ensemble provides scientific insights on the possible role of the AMOC, among other factors, in climate trends, or lack thereof, over the past 20 years. This ensemble is also used to explore how the occurrence of hiatus events of different durations varies for models with different transient climate response (TCR). We show that models with a higher TCR are less likely to produce a 15-year warming hiatus in global surface temperature than those with a lower TCR.

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Pawson, Steven; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.; Kawa, S. Randy; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Oman, Luke; Waugh, Darryn

2008-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.

Stochastic soil water balance under seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2015-01-01

The analysis of soil water partitioning in seasonally dry climates necessarily requires careful consideration of the periodic climatic forcing at the intra-annual timescale in addition to daily scale variabilities. Here, we introduce three new extensions to a stochastic soil moisture model which yields seasonal evolution of soil moisture and relevant hydrological fluxes. These approximations allow seasonal climatic forcings (e.g. rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) to be fully resolved, extending the analysis of soil water partitioning to account explicitly for the seasonal amplitude and the phase difference between the climatic forcings. The results provide accurate descriptions of probabilistic soil moisture dynamics under seasonal climates without requiring extensive numerical simulations. We also find that the transfer of soil moisture between the wet to the dry season is responsible for hysteresis in the hydrological response, showing asymmetrical trajectories in the mean soil moisture and in the transient Budyko's curves during the ‘dry-down‘ versus the ‘rewetting‘ phases of the year. Furthermore, in some dry climates where rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are in-phase, annual evapotranspiration can be shown to increase because of inter-seasonal soil moisture transfer, highlighting the importance of soil water storage in the seasonal context. PMID:25663808

Stratospheric ozone loss and Antarctic climate change: an update from a stratosphere resolving Chemistry Climate Model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalichin, Janna; Kubin, Anne; Grieger, Jens; Langematz, Ulrike; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Joeckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

The evolution of Antarctic climate during the past four decades was characterized by enhanced tropospheric westerlies and a negative trend in near-surface temperature over the Antarctic plateau during the austral summer, while the Antarctic Peninsula showed a warming (Thompson and Solomon, 2002). Model simulations suggested that these trends are most certainly attributable to the Antarctic ozone depletion since the early 1980s (Gillett and Thompson, 2003). However, the more recent publication of Steig et al. (2009) finds a warming of the whole Antarctic continent since 1957 in data from satellites and automatic weather stations. Motivated by this discussion we have analysed changes in stratospheric ozone, temperature and dynamics, and the corresponding signal in Antarctic climate in a transient simulation of the period 1960 to 2000, performed with the stratosphere-troposphere Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC. The model has been integrated following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures/sea ice. The model reproduces the main observed features of the Antarctic stratosphere since the 1960s, e.g. the establishment of the ozone hole in the 1980s, a negative stratospheric temperature trend, and a longer lived and deeper polar vortex and its more intense breakdown. The enhancement of the tropospheric jet is well reproduced as well. With respect to the near surface trends the model seems to support the recently published results of a weak positive temperature trend all over Antarctica. Analyses of heat and humidity fluxes will be used to support the interpretation of the model results.

A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble(MME) (32 models) are: 1.7 ± 0.8 K, 2.6 ± 0.8 K and 4.8 ± 1.3 K. Therefore, our projection uncertainty is less than half the structural uncertainty of this CMIP5 MME.

The evolution of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation from 1960-2100 in simulations with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberländer, Sophie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kubin, Anne; Abalichin, Janna; Meul, Stefanie; Jöckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

First results of research performed within the new DFG Research Unit Stratospheric Change and its Role for Climate Prediction (SHARP) will be presented. SHARP investigates past and future changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition to improve the understanding of global climate change and the accuracy of climate change predictions. SHARP combines the efforts of eight German research institutes and expertise in state-of-the-art climate modelling and observations. Within the scope of the scientific sub-project SHARP-BDC (Brewer-Dobson-Circulation) the past and future evolution of the BDC in an atmosphere with changing composition will be analysed. Radiosonde data show an annual mean cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere over the past few decades (Thompson and Solomon, 2005). Several independent model simulations indicate an acceleration of the BDC due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations with direct impact on the exchange of air masses between the troposphere and stratosphere (e.g., Butchart et al, 2006). In contrast, from balloon-born measurements no significant acceleration in the BDC could be identified (Engel et al, 2008). This disagreement between observations and model analyses motivates further studies. For the future, expected changes in planetary wave generation and propagation in an atmosphere with increasing GHG concentrations are a major source of uncertainty for predicting future levels of stratospheric composition. To analyse and interpret the past and future evolution of the BDC, results from a transient multi-decadal simulation with the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC will be presented. The model has been integrated from 1960 to 2100 following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of GHGs, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice. The role of increasing GHG concentrations for the BDC will be assessed by comparing the SCN2d-results with a ‘non-climate change' (NCC) simulation, in which greenhouse gases have been kept fixed at their 1960 concentrations.

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

PubMed Central

Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2016-01-01

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively. PMID:27901045

Interpretation of Trace Gas Data Using Inverse Methods and Global Chemical Transport Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, Ronald G.

1997-01-01

This is a theoretical research project aimed at: (1) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for long lived gases important in ozone depletion and climate forcing, (2) utilization of inverse methods to determine these source/sink strengths which use the NCAR/Boulder CCM2-T42 3-D model and a global 3-D Model for Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) which is based on analyzed observed wind fields (developed in collaboration by MIT and NCAR/Boulder), (3) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple titrating gases, and, (4) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3-D models. Important goals include determination of regional source strengths of methane, nitrous oxide, and other climatically and chemically important biogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-on agreements and hydrohalocarbons used as alternatives to the restricted halocarbons.

Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail.

PubMed

Woodin, Sarah A; Hilbish, Thomas J; Helmuth, Brian; Jones, Sierra J; Wethey, David S

2013-09-01

Modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. However, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. We define the transient event margin (TEM) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as CTmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as LTmax. If TEM is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. If TEM is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. Using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. We suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. Successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. TEM allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.

Constraining cloud responses to CO2 and warming in climate models: physical and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, S. C.; Fuchs, D.; Bony, S.; Jean-Louis, D.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

CHARACTERIZING STORM HYDROGRAPH RISE AND FALL DYNAMICS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH STREAM STAGE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Stormflow transients (i.e., hydrograph rise and fall dynamics) have been shown to impact stream biota through impacts on habitat quality and availability. However, little is known about how climate variability and temporal resolution of transient data may color the putative relat...

A fully coupled transient thermomechanical ice-flow/permafrost model of the Rhine Glacier, Switzerland: effects of permafrost on basal conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, D.; Zwinger, T.; Haeberli, W.; Fischer, U. H.

2016-12-01

The safe disposal of radioactive wastes in deep geological repositories requires their containment and isolation for up to one million years. Over that time period, the performance of the repositories in mid- and high-latitude regions can be impacted by future ice-age conditions which may cause deep glacial erosion, permafrost development, and changes in groundwater fluxes. In Switzerland, repositories are planned in the northern Swiss lowlands near the marginal zone of the former Rhine Glacier that repeatedly formed two extensive piedmont lobes (the Rhine and Linth lobes) over the Swiss Plateau. There, overdeepenings formed by glacial erosion indicate that the glacier was warm-based. Yet the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred under cold conditions: central Europe experienced extremely cold and dry conditions caused by the penetration of winter sea ice to low latitudes in the Atlantic Ocean and the corresponding closure of the primary humidity source north of the Alps. At the LGM, flat and extended lobes of large piedmont glaciers spreading out over much of the Swiss Plateau were polythermal, characterized by low driving stresses (typically around 30 kPa) and surrounded by continuous periglacial permafrost up to 150 m thick. Subsurface temperatures and groundwater flow conditions were strongly influenced by the presence of extended surface and subsurface ice. Using numerical models we explore the effects of permafrost on basal conditions of the piedmont lobes during the build-up of the Rhine Glacier. We apply a two-dimensional transient fully coupled thermomechanical full stress ice-flow and permafrost model along a flowline characterizing the Rhine lobe. The energy equation is solved in both ice and rock and permafrost is modeled using an effective heat capacity formulation to account for phase transitions. Transient effects during ice advances and permafrost build-up up to the LGM are resolved by modeling the full glacial cycle using reconstructed temperature and mass balance gradients from either Greenland or Antarctic ice cores. We explore how climate parameterization (temperature offset, mass balance gradients in the accumulation and ablation zones, climate signals) affect the development of temperate basal conditions necessary for significant erosion to occur.

Application of empirical and dynamical closure methods to simple climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla, Lauren Elizabeth

This dissertation applies empirically- and physically-based methods for closure of uncertain parameters and processes to three model systems that lie on the simple end of climate model complexity. Each model isolates one of three sources of closure uncertainty: uncertain observational data, large dimension, and wide ranging length scales. They serve as efficient test systems toward extension of the methods to more realistic climate models. The empirical approach uses the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) to estimate the transient climate sensitivity (TCS) parameter in a globally-averaged energy balance model. Uncertainty in climate forcing and historical temperature make TCS difficult to determine. A range of probabilistic estimates of TCS computed for various assumptions about past forcing and natural variability corroborate ranges reported in the IPCC AR4 found by different means. Also computed are estimates of how quickly uncertainty in TCS may be expected to diminish in the future as additional observations become available. For higher system dimensions the UKF approach may become prohibitively expensive. A modified UKF algorithm is developed in which the error covariance is represented by a reduced-rank approximation, substantially reducing the number of model evaluations required to provide probability densities for unknown parameters. The method estimates the state and parameters of an abstract atmospheric model, known as Lorenz 96, with accuracy close to that of a full-order UKF for 30-60% rank reduction. The physical approach to closure uses the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) to demonstrate closure of small-scale, nonlinear processes that would not be resolved directly in climate models. A one-dimensional, abstract test model with a broad spatial spectrum is developed. The test model couples the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation to a transport equation that includes cloud formation and precipitation-like processes. In the test model, three main sources of MMF error are evaluated independently. Loss of nonlinear multi-scale interactions and periodic boundary conditions in closure models were dominant sources of error. Using a reduced order modeling approach to maximize energy content allowed reduction of the closure model dimension up to 75% without loss in accuracy. MMF and a comparable alternative model peformed equally well compared to direct numerical simulation.

Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

2018-06-01

The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

NAME Modeling and Climate Process Team

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Williams, L. N.; Gutzler, D. S.

2007-05-01

NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team (CPT) has been established to address the need of linking climate process research to model development and testing activities for warm season climate prediction. The project builds on two existing NAME-related modeling efforts. One major component of this project is the organization and implementation of a second phase of NAMAP, based on the 2004 season. NAMAP2 will re-examine the metrics proposed by NAMAP, extend the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, exploit the extensive observational database provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation targets of special interest, and expand participation. Vertical column analysis will bring local NAME observations and model outputs together in a context where key physical processes in the models can be evaluated and improved. The second component builds on the current NAME-related modeling effort focused on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in several global models, including those implemented at NCEP, NASA and GFDL. Our activities will focus on the ability of the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) to simulate the diurnal and seasonal evolution of warm season precipitation during the NAME 2004 EOP, and on changes to the treatment of deep convection in the complicated terrain of the NAMS domain that are necessary to improve the simulations, and ultimately predictions of warm season precipitation These activities will be strongly tied to NAMAP2 to ensure technology transfer from research to operations. Results based on experiments conducted with the NCEP CFS GCM will be reported at the conference with emphasis on the impact of horizontal resolution in predicting warm season precipitation over North America.

Climate change and forest fires.

PubMed

Flannigan, M D; Stocks, B J; Wotton, B M

2000-11-15

This paper addresses the impacts of climate change on forest fires and describes how this, in turn, will impact on the forests of the United States. In addition to reviewing existing studies on climate change and forest fires we have used two transient general circulation models (GCMs), namely the Hadley Centre and the Canadian GCMs, to estimate fire season severity in the middle of the next century. Ratios of 2 x CO2 seasonal severity rating (SSR) over present day SSR were calculated for the means and maximums for North America. The results suggest that the SSR will increase by 10-50% over most of North America; although, there are regions of little change or where the SSR may decrease by the middle of the next century. Increased SSRs should translate into increased forest fire activity. Thus, forest fires could be viewed as an agent of change for US forests as the fire regime will respond rapidly to climate warming. This change in the fire regime has the potential to overshadow the direct effects of climate change on species distribution and migration.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2015-04-01

The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.; Aamaas, B.; Amann, M.; Baker, L. H.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Boucher, O.; Cherian, R.; Collins, W.; Daskalakis, N.; Dusinska, M.; Eckhardt, S.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Harju, M.; Heyes, C.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Hao, J.; Im, U.; Kanakidou, M.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Law, K. S.; Lund, M. T.; Maas, R.; MacIntosh, C. R.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Olivié, D.; Quaas, J.; Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.-C.; Rumbold, S. T.; Samset, B. H.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Shine, K. P.; Skeie, R. B.; Wang, S.; Yttri, K. E.; Zhu, T.

2015-06-01

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs: methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for Northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20 year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon emissions by about 50 and 80%, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11-12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with these ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70±0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22±0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22±0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ∼22% to this response and CH4 78%. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90% of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and black carbon (BC) specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, largely because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea-ice responses may counteract the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49) largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in Southern Europe, where the surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6-21) mm yr-1 (more than 4% of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.; Aamaas, B.; Amann, M.; Baker, L. H.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Boucher, O.; Cherian, R.; Collins, W.; Daskalakis, N.; Dusinska, M.; Eckhardt, S.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Harju, M.; Heyes, C.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Hao, J.; Im, U.; Kanakidou, M.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Law, K. S.; Lund, M. T.; Maas, R.; MacIntosh, C. R.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Olivié, D.; Quaas, J.; Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.-C.; Rumbold, S. T.; Samset, B. H.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Shine, K. P.; Skeie, R. B.; Wang, S.; Yttri, K. E.; Zhu, T.

2015-09-01

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11-12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6-21) mm yr-1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Modelling carbon in permafrost soils from preindustrial to the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinen, T.; Brovkin, V.

2015-12-01

The carbon release from thawing permafrost soils constitutes one of the large uncertainties in the carbon cycle under future climate change. Analysing the problem further, this uncertainty results from an uncertainty about the total amount of C that is stored in frozen soils, combined with an uncertainty about the areas where soils might thaw under a particular climate change scenario, as well as an uncertainty about the decomposition product since some of the decomposed C might result the release of CH4 as well as CO2. We use the land surface model JSBACH, part of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM, to quantify the release of soil carbon from thawing permafrost soils. We have extended the soil carbon model YASSO by introducing carbon storages in frozen soils, with increasing fractions of C being available to decomposition as permafrost thaws. In order to quantify the amount of carbon released as CH4, as opposed to CO2, we have also implemented a TOPMODEL-based wetland scheme, as well as anaerobic C decomposition and methane transport. We initialise the soil C pools for the preindustrial climate state from the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database to insure initial C pool sizes close to measurements. We then determine changes in soil C storage in transient model experiments following historical and future climate changes under RCP 8.5. Based on these experiments, we quantify the greenhouse gas release from permafrost C decomposition, determining both CH4 and CO2 emissions.

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

PubMed

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackburn, Michael; Williamson, David L.; Nakajima, Kensuke; Ohfuchi, Wataru; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki O.; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Ishiwatari, Masaki; Mcgregor, John L.; Borth, Hartmut;

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest river to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, F.; Cuo, L.; Wu, H.; Mantua, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2009-12-01

The climate of the Pacific Northwest (PNW - which we define as the Columbia River basin and watersheds draining to the Oregon and Washington coasts) is expected to warm by approximately 0.3°C per decade in the next 100 years based on the IPCC the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) results. PNW hydrology is particularly sensitive to a warming climate because of the dominant role of snowmelt in seasonal streamflow. Timing shifts in seasonality of flows, peak discharge, and base flows will impact water resource management, regional electrical energy production, and freshwater ecosystems. In this work we update previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology using a macroscale hydrology model driven by simulations of temperature and precipitation downscaled from runs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A1B) in the 21st century. The hydrology model is implemented at 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the entire PNW. A (statistical) bias-correction and spatial disaggregation downscaling approach is used for translating the transient monthly climate model output into continuous daily forcings for the hydrologic analysis. We evaluate projected changes in snow water equivalent, seasonal streamflow, and frequency of peak low flows over a set of case study watersheds in the region. We also compare these hydrologic projections with previous analysis based on delta downscaling method over the PNW. This research is part of a project investigating climate change impacts on the future of wild Pacific salmon, and is a pilot effort to investigate the hydrologic sensitivity of salmon bearing watersheds around the entire North Pacific Rim.

Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

PubMed

Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

2015-09-02

Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

Vulnerability of two European lakes in response to future climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danis, Pierre-Alain; von Grafenstein, Ulrich; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Planton, S.; Gerdeaux, D.; Moisselin, J.-M.

2004-11-01

Temperate deep freshwater lakes are important resources of drinking water and fishing, and regional key recreation areas. Their deep water often hosts highly specialised fauna surviving since glacial times. Theoretical and observational studies suggest a vulnerability of these hydro-ecosystems to reduced mixing and ventilation within the ongoing climatic change. Here we use a numerical thermal lake model, verified over the 20th century, to quantify the transient thermal behaviour of two European lakes in response to the observed 20th-century and predicted 21th-century climate changes. In contrast to Lac d'Annecy (France) which, after adaptation, maintains its modern mixing behaviour, Ammersee (Germany) is expected to undergo a dramatic and persistent lack of mixing starting from ~2020, when European air temperatures should be ~1°C warmer. The resulting lack of oxygenation will irreversibly destroy the deepwater fauna prevailing since 15 kyrs.

I. Climate change on ancient Mars. II. Exoplanet geodynamics and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kite, Edwin Stephen

This thesis describes work related to long-term climate stability, on Mars and exoplanets. Mars is the only planet known to record a major transition in planetary habitability. The evidence for surface temperatures near the melting point of water on Early Mars is difficult to explain, because theory predicts a faint young Sun. Seasonal snowmelt need not require high annual mean temperatures, but surface water ice tends to migrate away from the warmer regions of the planet where melting is energetically possible. In the first part of this thesis I use geological analysis, mesoscale models, and idealized surface energy balance models to examine two possible solutions to this problem. Impacts into icy targets, groundwater outbursts, and phreatic explosions are all expected to inject water vapor into the Mars atmosphere. I use mesoscale models to track the atmospheric response to these transient, localized vapor sources. Using idealized boundary conditions, I show that storms with updraft speeds >50 m/s and localized precipitation are expected near transient lakes >103 km2 in size. Snow deposited in this way is out of equilibrium with orbital forcing, and correspondingly more likely to melt. Canyon paleolakes in the Valles Marineris are frequently associated with streams preserved on the plateaux just downwind of the canyons. Using geologically realistic boundary conditions, I study the atmospheric response to two short-lived paleolakes. In each case, the plateau streams are in the locations expected for localized precipitation. Liquid water availability favors lithification, so the Martian sedimentary rock record is a wet-pass filter. Orbital variability strongly affects liquid water availability, so considering only averaged orbital conditions is neither sufficient not appropriate. To find the likelihood of snow melting, I consider all possible orbital forcings using an idealized but self-consistent model of snowpack energy balance and the CO2 greenhouse effect. Seasonal snowmelt on Early Mars is possible under unusual orbital conditions provided that the snow is dust-contaminated. The predicted distribution of snowmelt can explain the distribution of sedimentary rocks on Mars, but only if Mars had a thin atmosphere when the sedimentary rocks formed. This framework is the first to link upcoming observations by the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover at the lower Gale Crater mound to past global climate on Mars. The model makes predictions about the lower Gale Crater mound that can be tested using Curiosity rover data. Earth is the only example of long term climate stability that is available for study, so long term climate stability is difficult to understand. Extrasolar planets may ameliorate this problem of uniqueness. It is clear that rates of volcanic activity and of surface weathering are important in regulating long term climate. In the second part of this thesis, I model the rate of volcanism on massive Earth-like planets, and the surface weathering rate on planets in 1:1 spin:orbit resonance. "Super-Earths" in the range 1-10 Earth masses have been detected by radial velocity and transit methods. Using an idealized mantle thermal evolution model to drive mantle-melting models, I show that the rate of volcanism on massive Earth like planets is a weak function of planet mass. Planet mass can, however, affect tectonics by changing the mode of mantle convection. Earth's climate stability depends on a negative feedback involving the temperature-dependent rate of weathering and mean surface temperature. I use an idealized model to show that for intermediate surface pressures and for low-opacity atmospheres, nonlinearities in the surface energy balance can reverse the sign of this dependence on tidally-locked planets. This leads to climate instability. I conclude by discussing future observations and research aimed at understanding long-term climate stability.

Hazards of decreasing marine oxygen: the near-term and millennial-scale benefits of meeting the Paris climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battaglia, Gianna; Joos, Fortunat

2018-06-01

Ocean deoxygenation is recognized as key ecosystem stressor of the future ocean and associated climate-related ocean risks are relevant for current policy decisions. In particular, benefits of reaching the ambitious 1.5 °C warming target mentioned by the Paris Agreement compared to higher temperature targets are of high interest. Here, we model oceanic oxygen, warming and their compound hazard in terms of metabolic conditions on multi-millennial timescales for a range of equilibrium temperature targets. Scenarios where radiative forcing is stabilized by 2300 are used in ensemble simulations with the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Transiently, the global mean ocean oxygen concentration decreases by a few percent under low forcing and by 40 % under high forcing. Deoxygenation peaks about a thousand years after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions are established after AD 8000 in our model. Hypoxic waters expand over the next millennium and recovery is slow and remains incomplete under high forcing. Largest transient decreases in oxygen are projected for the deep sea. Distinct and near-linear relationships between the equilibrium temperature response and marine O2 loss emerge. These point to the effectiveness of the Paris climate target in reducing marine hazards and risks. Mitigation measures are projected to reduce peak decreases in oceanic oxygen inventory by 4.4 % °C-1 of avoided equilibrium warming. In the upper ocean, the decline of a metabolic index, quantified by the ratio of O2 supply to an organism's O2 demand, is reduced by 6.2 % °C-1 of avoided equilibrium warming. Definitions of peak hypoxia demonstrate strong sensitivity to additional warming. Volumes of water with less than 50 mmol O2 m-3, for instance, increase between 36 % and 76 % °C-1 of equilibrium temperature response. Our results show that millennial-scale responses should be considered in assessments of ocean deoxygenation and associated climate-related ocean risks. Peak hazards occur long after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions establish after AD 8000.

A laboratory experiment simulating the dynamics of topographic relief: methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crave, A.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.; Bonnet, S.; Laguionie, P.

2002-12-01

Theoretical analysis and numerical models of landscape evolution have advanced several scenarios for the long-term evolution of terrestrial topography. These scenarios require quantitative evaluation. Analyses of topography, sediment fluxes, and the physical mechanisms of erosion and sediment transport can provide some constraints on the range of plausible models. But in natural systems the boundary conditions (tectonic uplift, climate, base level) are often not well constrained and the spatial heterogeneity of substrate, climate, vegetation, and prevalent processes commonly confounds attempts at extrapolation of observations to longer timescales. In the laboratory, boundary conditions are known and heterogeneity and complexity can be controlled. An experimental approach can thus provide valuable constraints on the dynamics of geomorphic systems, provided that (1) the elementary processes are well calibrated and (2) the topography and sediment fluxes are sufficiently well documented. We have built an experimental setup of decimeter scale that is designed to develop a complete drainage network by the growth and propagation of erosion instabilities in response to tectonic and climatic perturbations. Uplift and precipitation rates can be changed over an order of magnitude. Telemetric lasers and 3D stereo-photography allow the precise quantification of the topographic evolution of the experimental surface. In order to calibrate the principal processes of erosion and transport we have used three approaches: (1) theoretical derivation of erosion laws deduced from the geometrical properties of experimental surfaces at steady-state under different rates of tectonic uplift; (2) comparison of the experimental transient dynamics with a numerical simulation model to test the validity of the predicted erosion laws; and (3) detailed analysis of particle detachment and transport in a millimeter sheet flow on a two-meter long flume under precisely controlled water discharge, slope and flow width. The analogy with real geomorphic systems is limited by the imperfect downscaling in both time and space of the experiments. However, these simple experiments have allowed us to probe (1) the importance of a threshold for particle mobilization to the relationship between steady-state elevation and uplift rate, (2) the role of initial drainage network organization in the transient dynamics of tectonically perturbed systems and (3) the sediment flux dynamics of climatically perturbed systems.

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

DOE PAGES

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Cheng, Haiwen; Wang, Chien

2016-04-06

Fuel usage is an important driver of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In Asia, it is possible that aerosol emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly as a result of the widespread adoption of cleaner technologies or a shift toward noncoal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of two aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) control, which projects a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and a scenario with enhanced anthropogenic aerosolmore » emissions from Asia. A coupled atmosphere–ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is used. Three sets of initial conditions are used to produce a three-member ensemble for each scenario. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to exert a large cooling effect across the Northern Hemisphere, partially offsetting greenhouse gas–induced warming. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world. Over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced, an effect associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, driven by the aerosol-induced cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. Over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed, likely via a weakening of the West African westerly jet. These results indicate that fuel usage in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.« less

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

The bomb 14C transient in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Keith B.; Schrag, Daniel P.; Cane, Mark A.; Naik, Naomi H.

2000-04-01

A modeling study of the bomb 14C transient is presented for the Pacific Ocean. A primitive equation ocean circulation model has been configured for a high-resolution domain that accounts for the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Four separate runs were performed: (1) seasonal forcing with 20 Sv of ITF transport, (2) seasonal forcing with 10 Sv of ITF transport, (3) seasonal forcing with no ITF transport, and (4) interannual forcing with 15 Sv of ITF transport. This study has two main objectives. First, it is intended to describe the time evolution of the bomb 14C transient. This serves as a tool with which one can identify the physical processes controlling the evolving bomb 14C distribution in the Pacific thermocline and thus provides an interpretive framework for the database of Δ14C measurements in the Pacific. Second, transient tracers are applied to the physical oceanographic problem of intergyre exchange. This is of importance in furthering our understanding of the potential role of the upper Pacific Ocean in climate variability. We use bomb 14C as a dye tracer of intergyre exchange between the subtropical gyres and the equatorial upwelling regions of the equatorial Pacific. Observations show that while the atmospheric Δ14C signal peaked in the early to mid-1960s, the Δ14C levels in the surface water waters of the subtropical gyres peaked near 1970, and the Δ14C of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific continued to rise through the 1980s. It is shown that the model exhibits skill in representing the large-scale observed features observed for the bomb 14C transient in the Pacific Ocean. The model successfully captures the basin-scale inventories of bomb 14C in the tropics as well as in the extratropics of the North Pacific. For the equatorial Pacific this is attributed to the model's high meridional resolution. The discrepancies in the three-dimensional distribution of bomb 14C between the model and data are discussed within the context of the dynamical controls on the Δ14C distribution of bomb 14C in the Pacific.

Modeling Study of the Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Late Spring Drought in South China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Ning; Liu, Xiaohong

2013-10-01

In this study, the mechanisms underlying the decadal variability of late spring precipitation in south China are investigated using the latest version 1 of Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We aim to unravel the effects of different climate forcing agents, such as aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), on the decadal variation of precipitation with transient experiments from pre-industry (for year 1850) to present-day (for year 2000). Our results reveal that: (1) CESM1 can reproduce the climatological features of atmospheric circulation and precipitation for the late spring in south China; (2) Only simulations including the forcing of anthropogenic aerosols can reproducemore » the observed decreasing trend of late spring precipitation from 1950-2000 in south China; (3) Aerosols affect the decadal change of precipitation mainly by altering the large scale atmospheric circulation, and to a less extent by increasing the lower-tropospheric stability to inhibit the convective precipitation; and (4) In comparison, other climate forcing agents, such as GHGs, have much smaller effects on the decadal change of spring precipitation in south China. Key words: precipitation, aerosols, climate change, south China, Community Earth System Model« less

Historical influence of irrigation on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-04-01

Land irrigation is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that land irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. However, a thorough understanding of the impact of irrigation on extreme climatic conditions, such as heat waves, droughts or intense precipitation, is currently still lacking. In this context, we aim to assess the historical influence of irrigation on the occurrence of climate extremes. To this end, two simulations are conducted over the period 1910-2010 with a state-of-the-art global climate model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM): a control simulation including all major anthropogenic and natural external forcings except for irrigation and a second experiment with transient irrigation enabled. The two simulations are evaluated for their ability to represent (i) hot, dry and wet extremes using the HadEX2 and ERA-Interim datasets as a reference, and (ii) latent heat fluxes using LandFlux-EVAL. Assuming a linear combination of climatic responses to different forcings, the difference between both experiments approximates the influence of irrigation. We will analyse the impact of irrigation on a number of climate indices reflecting the intensity and duration of heat waves. Thereby, particular attention is given to the role of soil moisture changes in modulating climate extremes. Furthermore, the contribution of individual biogeophysical processes to the total impact of irrigation on hot extremes is quantified by application of a surface energy balance decomposition technique to the 90th and 99th percentile surface temperature changes.

Initial Examination of the Long Term Thermosphere Changes As Seen in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model - eXtended (WACCM-X) J. M. McInerney, L. Qian, and H.-L Liu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInerney, J. M.; Qian, L.; Liu, H.

2013-12-01

It has been over two decades since the projection that, not only will the human induced increase in atmospheric CO2 produce a warming in the troposphere, it will also produce a cooling in the middle to upper atmosphere into the 21st century with significant consequences. The thermospheric density decrease associated with this projected upper atmosphere cooling due to greenhouse gases has been confirmed by observations, in particular satellite drag measurements, and by various modeling studies. Recent studies also suggest potential impacts from the lower atmosphere on thermosphere dynamics such as atmospheric thermal tides and gravity waves. With the current advance of whole atmosphere climate models which extend from the ground through the thermosphere, it is now possible to include effects of these and other lower atmosphere processes in modeling studies of long term thermospheric changes. One such whole atmosphere model under development at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model - eXtended (WACCM-X). WACCM-X is a self consistent climate model extending from the ground to approximately 500 kilometers and is based on the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) / Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Although an interactive ionosphere module is not complete, the globally averaged structure of thermosphere temperature and neutral species from WACCM-X are reasonable compared with the NCAR global mean model. In this study, we will examine a transient WACCM-X simulation from 1955 to 2005 with realistic tropospheric CO2 input and solar and geomagnetic forcing. The preliminary study will focus on the long term changes in the thermosphere from this simulation, in particular the secular changes of thermosphere neutral density and temperature due to anthropogenic forcing.

Development of a biosphere hydrological model considering vegetation dynamics and its evaluation at basin scale under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Ishidaira, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

SummaryThe biosphere and hydrosphere are intrinsically coupled. The scientific question is if there is a substantial change in one component such as vegetation cover, how will the other components such as transpiration and runoff generation respond, especially under climate change conditions? Stand-alone hydrological models have a detailed description of hydrological processes but do not sufficiently parameterize vegetation as a dynamic component. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. Therefore, both hydrological models and DGVMs have their limitations as well as advantages for addressing this question. In this study a biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) is developed by coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD), with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at basin scale and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The application and validation of the LPJH model to four basins representing a variety of climate and vegetation conditions shows that the performance of LPJH is much better than that of the original LPJ and is similar to that of stand-alone hydrological models for monthly and daily runoff simulation at the basin scale. It is argued that the LPJH model gives more reasonable hydrological simulation since it considers both the spatial variability of soil moisture and vegetation dynamics, which make the runoff generation mechanism more reliable. As an example, it is shown that changing atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in runoff increases in humid basins and decreases in arid basins. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore LPJH potentially provides a powerful tool for simulating vegetation response to climate changes in the biosphere hydrological cycle.

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Vegetation: Implications for Biodiversity and Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, K.; Schrag, D. P.

2017-12-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on biodiversity. Two commonly used climate classification systems show shifts in vegetation under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, though we acknowledge the associated uncertainties with these systems. We also show that rates of warming and the climate velocity are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles are observed in the results, and have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. Vegetation water cycling is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.

A hybrid formalism of aerosol gas phase interaction for 3-D global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benduhn, F.

2009-04-01

Aerosol chemical composition is a relevant factor to the global climate system with respect to both atmospheric chemistry and the aerosol direct and indirect effects. Aerosol chemical composition determines the capacity of aerosol particles to act as cloud condensation nuclei both explicitly via particle size and implicitly via the aerosol hygroscopic property. Due to the primary role of clouds in the climate system and the sensitivity of cloud formation and radiative properties to the cloud droplet number it is necessary to determine with accuracy the chemical composition of the aerosol. Dissolution, although a formally fairly well known process, may be subject to numerically prohibitive properties that result from the chemical interaction of the species engaged. So-far approaches to model the dissolution of inorganics into the aerosol liquid phase in the framework of a 3-D global model were based on an equilibrium, transient or hybrid equilibrium-transient approach. All of these methods present the disadvantage of a priori assumptions with respect to the mechanism and/or are numerically not manageable in the context of a global climate system model. In this paper a new hybrid formalism to aerosol gas phase interaction is presented within the framework of the H2SO4/HNO3/HCl/NH3 system and a modal approach of aerosol size discretisation. The formalism is distinct from prior hybrid approaches in as much as no a priori assumption on the nature of the regime a particular aerosol mode is in is made. Whether a particular mode is set to be in the equilibrium or the transitory regime is continuously determined during each time increment against relevant criteria considering the estimated equilibration time interval and the interdependence of the aerosol modes relative to the partitioning of the dissolving species. Doing this the aerosol composition range of numerical stiffness due to species interaction during transient dissolution is effectively eluded, and the numerical expense of dissolution in the transient regime is reduced through the minimisation of the number of modes in this regime and a larger time step. Containment of the numerical expense of the modes in the equilibrium regime is ensured through the usage of either an analytical equilibrium solver that requires iteration among the equilibrium modes, or a simple numerical solver based on a differential approach that requires iteration among the chemical species. Both equilibrium solvers require iteration over the water content and the activity coefficients. Decision for using either one or the other solver is made upon the consideration of the actual equilibrating mechanism, either chemical interaction or gas phase partial pressure variation, respectively. The formalism should thus ally appropriate process simplification resulting in reasonable computation time to a high degree of real process conformity as it is ensured by a transitory representation of dissolution. The resulting effectiveness and limits of the formalism are illustrated with numerical examples.

Recent drying of the Fertile Crescent: natural or externally forced?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Colin

2014-05-01

There has been a reduction in observed precipitation over the greater Mediterranean region since the middle of the 20th Century. Recent studies suggest that while anthropogenic forcing has already begun to assert itself in recent decades, the preponderance of the winter drying trend is attributable to the large natural multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while over the eastern Mediterranean, the anthropogenic, or forced drying signal is more clearly evident. This forced drying is projected to increase during the 21st Century according to the newest global climate models and this aridification would present significant challenges for a region that is already water-stressed. Although the Fertile Crescent is historically known for its agricultural prosperity, the severity and persistence of the recent multiyear drought in Syria, directly prior to the 2011 uprising there, leads us to ask whether this is evidence of emerging global warming influence. This drought exacerbated existing water insecurity, resulting in an agricultural collapse and a mass migration of rural drought refugees to the urban areas in Syria's west. This migration followed the previous influx of Iragi refugees and combined with strong natural population growth to place a severe strain on resources. Here we examine observations of precipitation and temperature, both gridded and stations, along with simulations and projections from the newest global climate models, to estimate the forced contribution to the recent Syrian drought, and assess the uncertainty in future drying according to the models. We find that this region has experienced a long-term downward trend in precipitation, and a concomitant increase in temperature, serving to further dry the soil, and in surface pressure. We find that the shift in the distributions of three-year running means of surface pressure and precipitation due to the forcing make severe events such as the recent Syrian drought several times more likely. Next we examine the moisture budget in the models and compare with the ground truth of atmospheric reanalyses to determine the relative contributions from the mean flow and the transient eddies. We find that the mean and transient patterns of moisture budget change over the eastern Mediterranean under forcing resemble the patterns of the NAO-induced moisture budget anomaly, but that over the greater Mediterranean there are distinct differences. Under forced moisture budget change, as noted in a recent study, the mean flow serves to strongly dry the greater Mediterranean, with a smaller contribution from the transients. For the eastern Mediterranean however, the transients oppose the drying by the mean flow, under climate change and under a positive phase of the NAO. These results suggest that anthropogenically forced drying of the Fertile Crescent may already be underway, primarily through a poleward shift in the mean flow, and represent a step forward toward a better understanding of the mechanisms associated with eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate change and variability and how they compare.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Modeling biogeochemical responses of vegetation to ENSO: comparison and analysis on subgrid PFT patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2016-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important interannual climate variability and has significant consequences and impacts on the global biosphere. The responses of vegetation to ENSO are highly heterogeneous and generally depend on the biophysical and biochemical characteristics associated with model plant functional types (PFTs). The modeled biogeochemical variables from Earth System Models (ESMs) are generally grid averages consisting of several PFTs within a gridcell, which will lead to difficulties in directly comparing them with site observations and large uncertainties in studying their responses to large scale climate variability. In this study, we conducted a transient ENSO simulation for the previoustwo decades from 1995 to 2020 using the DOE ACME v0.3 model. It has a comprehensive terrestrial biogeochemistry model that is fully coupled with a sophisticated atmospheric model with an advanced spectral element dynamical core. The model was driven by the NOAA optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (SST) for contemporary years and CFS v2 nine-month seasonal predicted and reconstructed SST for future years till to 2020. We saved the key biogeochemical variables in the subgrid PFT patches and compared them with site observations directly. Furthermore, we studied the biogeochemical responses of terrestrial vegetation to two largest ENSO events (1997-1998 and 2015-2016) for different PFTs. Our results show that it is useful and meaningful to compare and analyze model simulations in subgrid patches. The comparison and analysis not only gave us the details of responses of terrestrial ecosystem to global climate variability under changing climate, but also the insightful view on the model performance on the PFT level.

Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum—Crossing a Thermal Threshold in Earth's Climate System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhold, T.; Röhl, U.; Donner, B.; Frederichs, T.; Kordesch, W. E. C.; Bohaty, S. M.; Hodell, D. A.; Laskar, J.; Zeebe, R. E.

2018-01-01

Recognizing and deciphering transient global warming events triggered by massive release of carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere climate system in the past are important for understanding climate under elevated pCO2 conditions. Here we present new high-resolution geochemical records including benthic foraminiferal stable isotope data with clear evidence of a short-lived (30 kyr) warming event at 41.52 Ma. The event occurs in the late Lutetian within magnetochron C19r and is characterized by a ˜2°C warming of the deep ocean in the southern South Atlantic. The magnitudes of the carbon and oxygen isotope excursions of the Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum are comparable to the H2 event (53.6 Ma) suggesting a similar response of the climate system to carbon cycle perturbations even in an already relatively cooler climate several million years after the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. Coincidence of the event with exceptionally high insolation values in the Northern Hemisphere at 41.52 Ma might indicate that Earth's climate system has a thermal threshold. When this tipping point is crossed, rapid positive feedback mechanisms potentially trigger transient global warming. The orbital configuration in this case could have caused prolonged warm and dry season leading to a massive release of terrestrial carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system initiating environmental change.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

Rapid shifts in South American montane climates driven by pCO2 and ice volume changes over the last two glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groot, M. H. M.; Bogotá, R. G.; Lourens, L. J.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Vriend, M.; Berrio, J. C.; Tuenter, E.; van der Plicht, J.; van Geel, B.; Ziegler, M.; Weber, S. L.; Betancourt, A.; Contreras, L.; Gaviria, S.; Giraldo, C.; González, N.; Jansen, J. H. F.; Konert, M.; Ortega, D.; Rangel, O.; Sarmiento, G.; Vandenberghe, J.; van der Hammen, T.; van der Linden, M.; Westerhoff, W.

2010-10-01

Tropical montane biome migration patterns in the northern Andes are found to be coupled to glacial-induced mean annual temperature (MAT) changes; however, the accuracy and resolution of current records are insufficient to fully explore their magnitude and rates of change. Here we present a ~60-year resolution pollen record over the past 284 000 years from Lake Fúquene (5° N) in Colombia. This record shows rapid and extreme MAT changes at 2540 m elevation of up to 10 ± 2 °C within a few hundred of years that concur with the ~100 and 41-kyr (obliquity) paced glacial cycles and North Atlantic abrupt climatic events as documented in ice cores and marine sediments. Using transient climate modelling experiments we demonstrate that insolation-controlled ice volume and greenhouse gasses are the major forcing agents causing the orbital MAT changes, but that the model simulations significantly underestimate changes in lapse rates and local hydrology and vegetation feedbacks within the studied region due to its low spatial resolution.

From the Last Interglacial to the Anthropocene: Modelling a Complete Glacial Cycle (PalMod)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Latif, Mojib

2017-04-01

We will give a short overview and update on the current status of the national climate modelling initiative PalMod (Paleo Modelling, www.palmod.de). PalMod focuses on the understanding of the climate system dynamics and its variability during the last glacial cycle. The initiative is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and its specific topics are: (i) to identify and quantify the relative contributions of the fundamental processes which determined the Earth's climate trajectory and variability during the last glacial cycle, (ii) to simulate with comprehensive Earth System Models (ESMs) the climate from the peak of the last interglacial - the Eemian warm period - up to the present, including the changes in the spectrum of variability, and (iii) to assess possible future climate trajectories beyond this century during the next millennia with sophisticated ESMs tested in such a way. The research is intended to be conducted over a period of 10 years, but with shorter funding cycles. PalMod kicked off in February 2016. The first phase focuses on the last deglaciation (app. the last 23.000 years). From the ESM perspective PalMod pushes forward model development by coupling ESM with dynamical ice sheet models. Computer scientists work on speeding up climate models using different concepts (like parallelisation in time) and one working group is dedicated to perform a comprehensive data synthesis to validate model performance. The envisioned approach is innovative in three respects. First, the consortium aims at simulating a full glacial cycle in transient mode and with comprehensive ESMs which allow full interactions between the physical and biogeochemical components of the Earth system, including ice sheets. Second, we shall address climate variability during the last glacial cycle on a large range of time scales, from interannual to multi-millennial, and attempt to quantify the relative contributions of external forcing and processes internal to the Earth system to climate variability at different time scales. Third, in order to achieve a higher level of understanding of natural climate variability at time scales of millennia, its governing processes and implications for the future climate, we bring together three different research communities: the Earth system modeling community, the proxy data community and the computational science community. The consortium consists of 18 partners including all major modelling centers within Germany. The funding comprises approximately 65 PostDoc positions and more than 120 scientists are involved. PalMod is coordinated at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR).

Science and policy applicability of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.

2014-12-01

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) provides a quantification of the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions of carbon and global-mean temperature increase. For its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases its assessment on a large body of literature which encompasses multiple lines of evidence. In this session I will look at the literature basis that was available for TCRE at the time of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, providing an easy-to-access introduction into the TCRE concept. Building on this basis and summarizing my own recent work on this, I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the use of TCRE for climate policy. While the TCRE concept provides a clear long-term view of what is required to stabilize global-mean temperature increase, I will explore how TCRE uncertainties might pose problems for using TCRE as the only policy guidance in near-term policy decisions.

Lithologic Effects on Landscape Response to Base Level Changes: A Modeling Study in the Context of the Eastern Jura Mountains, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanites, Brian J.; Becker, Jens K.; Madritsch, Herfried; Schnellmann, Michael; Ehlers, Todd A.

2017-11-01

Landscape evolution is a product of the forces that drive geomorphic processes (e.g., tectonics and climate) and the resistance to those processes. The underlying lithology and structural setting in many landscapes set the resistance to erosion. This study uses a modified version of the Channel-Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development (CHILD) landscape evolution model to determine the effect of a spatially and temporally changing erodibility in a terrain with a complex base level history. Specifically, our focus is to quantify how the effects of variable lithology influence transient base level signals. We set up a series of numerical landscape evolution models with increasing levels of complexity based on the lithologic variability and base level history of the Jura Mountains of northern Switzerland. The models are consistent with lithology (and therewith erodibility) playing an important role in the transient evolution of the landscape. The results show that the erosion rate history at a location depends on the rock uplift and base level history, the range of erodibilities of the different lithologies, and the history of the surface geology downstream from the analyzed location. Near the model boundary, the history of erosion is dominated by the base level history. The transient wave of incision, however, is quite variable in the different model runs and depends on the geometric structure of lithology used. It is thus important to constrain the spatiotemporal erodibility patterns downstream of any given point of interest to understand the evolution of a landscape subject to variable base level in a quantitative framework.

The role of bias in simulation of the Indian monsoon and its relationship to predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, P.

2016-12-01

Confidence in future projections of how climate change will affect the Indian monsoon is currently limited by- among other things-model biases. That is, the systematic error in simulating the mean present day climate. An important priority question in seamless prediction involves the role of the mean state. How much of the prediction error in imperfect models stems from a biased mean state (itself a result of many interacting process errors), and how much stems from the flow dependence of processes during an oscillation or variation we are trying to predict? Using simple but effective nudging techniques, we are able to address this question in a clean and incisive framework that teases apart the roles of the mean state vs. transient flow dependence in constraining predictability. The role of bias in model fidelity of simulations of the Indian monsoon is investigated in CAM5, and the relationship to predictability in remote regions in the "free" (non-nudged) domain is explored.

Impacts of climatic change on forest structure in the Midwestern Great Lakes region: An integrated gap model and geographical information system (GIS) approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eman, J.L.; Randolph, J.C.; Fan, Weihong

The transient effects of an 80-year climate change scenario on 56 tree species are evaluated within the regional forested landscape matrix of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The JABOWA-II forest growth model was integrated with a GIS housing several federally-produced databases which were vital for input file development. A 4km{sup 2} resolution enabled high parameter specificity for each of the 54,345 representative 100m{sup 2} plots. Ten iterations of simulated growth response at each site followed model calibration. Changes in relative regional dominance and shifts in population centroids over two periods (1981-2020 and 2020-2060) indicated that most responses were species-specific.more » Notable among these were the substantial dominance increases of Populus tremuloides and Quercus alba from 1981-2020. Shared response patterns included conifers` centroid shifts to the northwest and overall dominance reductions.« less

Modelling uncertainties in the climate of the last millennium: the ASTER project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loutre, M. F.; Mouchet, A.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.

2009-04-01

The LOVECLIM model (Driesschaert et al., 2007; Goosse et al., 2007) is used to simulate the climate of the last millennium with several ‘climate' parameter sets yielding different sensitivities of the climate and the carbon cycle model. The purpose of these simulations is twofold. We intend to assess first the role of the carbon cycle on the climate, and second, the ability of the different selected parameter sets to drive the model within the range of the observed climate, and further to assess the uncertainty related to these parameters. The high frequency variability of the forcings is taken into account. For each set of parameters, LOVECLIM is driven by the natural evolution of insolation, solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosol concentrations due to volcanic activity as well as by changes caused by human activities such as deforestation, CO2 emission or concentration changes, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases other than CO2 (including ozone) and in sulphate aerosol load. Several transient experiments are conducted for each parameter set. A first transient simulation (Conc) is forced with reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration. In the next two simulations, the emissions of carbon were taken into account, the model computing the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration. First (EMIS), the emissions due both to the land use changes and the fossil fuel burning are provided. Second (Efor), only the emissions from fossil fuel burning are provided in addition to the vegetation change related to deforestation. The Northern Hemisphere annual mean temperatures simulated by the model according to the different parameter sets and carbon cycle sensitivities and the different experimental setups do not show striking differences compared to the NH temperature recontructions (IPCC, 2007). However, the simulated values are generally in the lower range of the reconstructions in the interval 900-1200 AD. Moreover some experiments are displaying a too large warming during the last century as well as a large variability occasionally out of the range of observation. The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the last century is strongly depending on how the anthropogenic emission and the land-use scenario are taken into account. Difference in atmospheric CO2 concentration can reach up to 50 ppmv. All the parameter sets are not able to reproduce the decreasing trend of the Arctic summer sea ice as recorded over the last decades. Parameter sets corresponding to the largest climate sensitivity lead to a strong reduction of the summer sea ice. However, different scenarios for deforestation lead to significantly different time evolution of the NH Summer sea ice area for the same parameter set. The ocean C storage remains within the range of estimates when CO2 is prescribed. However, values are much larger when both fossil fuel and land cover change emission are prescribed. The deforestation emissions as computed by the model lead to intermediate cumulative CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., Goosse H., Huybrechts P., Janssens I., Mouchet A., Munhoven G., Brovkin V., and Weber S. L., 2007. Modelling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34:L1070, 2007. Goosse H., Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., and Loutre M.F., 2007. Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century Clim. Past 3, 683-692. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Modeling soil temperature change in Seward Peninsula, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debolskiy, M. V.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Muskett, R. R.; Panda, S. K.

2017-12-01

Increasing demand for assessment of climate change-induced permafrost degradation and its consequences promotes creation of high-resolution modeling products of soil temperature changes. This is especially relevant for areas with highly vulnerable warm discontinuous permafrost in the Western Alaska. In this study, we apply ecotype-based modeling approach to simulate high-resolution permafrost distribution and its temporal dynamics in Seward Peninsula, Alaska. To model soil temperature dynamics, we use a transient soil heat transfer model developed at the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL-2). The model solves one dimensional nonlinear heat equation with phase change. The developed model is forced with combination of historical climate and different future scenarios for 1900-2100 with 2x2 km resolution prepared by Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (2017). Vegetation, snow and soil properties are calibrated by ecotype and up-scaled by using Alaska Existing Vegetation Type map for Western Alaska (Flemming, 2015) with 30x30 m resolution provided by Geographic Information Network of Alaska (UAF). The calibrated ecotypes cover over 75% of the study area. We calibrate the model using a data assimilation technique utilizing available observations of air, surface and sub-surface temperatures and snow cover collected by various agencies and research groups (USGS, Geophysical Institute, USDA). The calibration approach takes into account a natural variability between stations in the same ecotype and finds an optimal set of model parameters (snow and soil properties) within the study area. This approach allows reduction in microscale heterogeneity and aggregated soil temperature data from shallow boreholes which is highly dependent on local conditions. As a result of this study we present a series of preliminary high resolution maps for the Seward Peninsula showing changes in the active layer depth and ground temperatures for the current climate and future climate change scenarios.

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.

2017-12-01

Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are consistently in good agreement with values of ICS inferred from global energy budget constraints. This suggests that the current generation of coupled climate models are not overly sensitive. However, since global energy budget observations do not constrain ECS, it is less certain whether model ECS values are realistic.

Opportunities and Challenges in Enhancing Value of Annual Glacier Mass Balance Monitoring Examples from Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelto, M. S.

2017-12-01

Alpine glacier mass balance is the most accurate indicator of glacier response to climate and with retreat of alpine glaciers is one of the clearest signals of global climate change. Completion of long term, representative and homogenous mass balance field measurement of mass balance, compiled by WGMS, is a key climate data record. To ensure a monitoring program remains vital and funded local collaboration and connecting the research to local societal impacts is crucial. Working with local partners in collecting and providing the right data is critical whether their interest is in hydropower, irrigation, municipal supply, hazard reduction and/or aquatic ecosystems. The expansion of remote sensing and modeling capability provides both a challenge to continued relevance and an opportunity for field mass balance programs to expand relevance. In modelling studies of both glacier mass balance and glacier runoff transient balance data has equivalent value with annual balance data, for both calibration runs and as an input variable. This increases the utility of mid-season field observations. Remote sensing provides repeat imagery that often identifies the AAR and transient snowline of a glacier. For runoff assessment understanding the specific percent of glacier surface area that is glacier ice, older firn, and retained snowpack from the previous winter at frequent intervals during the melt season is vital since each region has a different melt factor. A denser field observation network combined with this imagery can provide additional point balance values of ablation that complement the mass balance record. Periodic measurement of mass balance at a denser network using GPR, LIDAR, TLS or probing is required to better understand long term point balance locations and is important at end of the melt season not just beginning, and has value mid-season for modelling. Applications of each of utility of field mass balance observations will be illustrated.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene - comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2014-05-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene- comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2015-02-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli

2017-11-01

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Influence of Global Climate Changes on Storm-Tracks of Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Y.; Krupchatnikov, V. N.

2012-12-01

Non-stationary eddies in mid-latitude storm-tracks are an important mechanism of energy, moment and moisture transfer in climate system [1]. Baroclinic eddies bring heavy rains and other hazard weather phenomena in the middle latitudes, play an important role in the global energy and the hydrological cycle. Recently, the increase of a cyclones rate at high latitudes with their frequency decrease in the second half of the 20th century was discovered using reanalysis data [2,3]. However, there is still no common point of view about how storm-track's distribution and intensity will be changed under the climate change influence [4,5]. In our work we investigate a variation of transient eddies general propagation tracks as a result of the global climate change effect. Using global large-scale intermediate complexity model of climate system [6] the numerical experiment was provided for the time period from 850 to 3000 year with a scenario of greenhouse gases influence on climate. From 850 to 2005 this impact was set according to the protocol "Historical simulations" of CMIP5 [7]. For 21th century anthropogenic effects were set according to the most aggressive scenario RCP 8.5 [8]. For the period 22-23 centuries CO2 concentration was on the level of 2100 year, and for 24-30 centuries it returned to pre-industrial value linearly in time of 100 years. Using a filter [9] we defined three variation intervals: low-frequency, medium-frequency and high-frequency. In our work we paid attention to medium-scale waves (i.e. 2-8 days). Two seasons were chosen: winter and summer. For each season we considered average fields of parameters characterizing poleward heat flux at 700 mb and transient eddies variance at 250 mb. Besides of the sensitivity of storm-track dynamic we considered some other features of "warm" climate. The work is partially supported by The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation #(#07.514.11.4044), RFBR grants #10-07-00547, #11-05-01190, and SB RAS projects 4.31.1.5, 4.31.2.7 and 131. Reference: 1. Hoskins, B.J. and P.J. Valdes. On the existence of storm-tracks. J Atmos Sci, 47, pp. 1854-1864, 1990. 2. Lambert, S.J. and J.C. Fyfe. Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Climate Dynamics, 26:713-728, 2006. 3. Geng, Q. and M. Sugi. Variability of the North Atlantic cyclone activity in winter analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Climate, 14:3863-3873, 2001. 4. Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside. Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J Climate, 22:2276-2301, 2009. 5. Brayshaw, D.J., B. Hoskins, and M. Blackburn. The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. part i: land-sea-contrast and orography. J Atmos Sci, 66 pp. 2539-2559, 2009. 6. Fraedrich K., Jansen H., et al. The Planet Simulator: Towards a user friendly model // Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2005. Vol. 14, N. 3. P. 299-304. 7. http://climate.uvic.ca/EMICAR5 8. Meinshausen M., Smith S., et al. The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2500 // Climatic Change.- 2011.- Special Issue on RCPs. 9. Blackmon M.L. A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere // J. Atmos. Sci.1976. V. 33, N. 8. P. 1607-1623.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE PAGES

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ...

2018-04-02

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets.

PubMed

Steinacher, Marco; Joos, Fortunat; Stocker, Thomas F

2013-07-11

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Atmospheric dynamical changes as a contributor to deglacial climate variability: results from an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Heather; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

The atmosphere is often assumed to play a passive role in centennial- to millennial-timescale climate variations of the last deglaciation due to its short response times ( years) and the absence of abrupt changes in external climate forcings. Nevertheless, atmospheric dynamical responses to changes in ice sheet topography and albedo can affect the entire Northern Hemisphere through the altering of Rossby stationary wave patterns and changes to the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. These responses appear sensitive to the particular configuration of Northern Hemisphere land ice, so small changes have the potential to reorganize atmospheric circulation with impacts on precipitation distributions, ocean surface currents and sea ice extent. Indirect proxy evidence, idealized theoretical studies, and "snapshot" simulations performed at different periods during the last glacial cycle indicate that between the Last Glacial Maximum and the preindustrial period the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet weakened, became less zonally-oriented, and exhibited greater variability. How the transition (or transitions) between the glacial atmospheric state and the interglacial state occurred is less clear. To address this question, we performed an ensemble of transient simulations of the last deglaciation using the Planet Simulator coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation-sea ice model (PlaSim, at an atmospheric resolution of T42) forced by variants of the GLAC1-D deglacial ice sheet chronology. We characterize simulated changes in stationary wave patterns over this period as well as changes in the strength and position of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. In particular, we document the range of timescales for these changes and compare the simulated climate signatures of these transitions to data archives of precipitation and sea ice extent.

How Are MIS-5e And MIS-11 Different From Other Interglacials And the Future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Q.; Berger, A.

2017-12-01

MIS-5e and MIS-11 appear in many proxy records as the warmest interglacials of the last million years although their astronomical configurations are very different. To investigate how they are different from other interglacials and between themselves, the climate of nine interglacials of the past 800,000 years has been simulated using both snapshot and transient experiments. These simulations allow to investigate the relative contributions of insolation and CO2 to the intensity and duration of each interglacial as well as the differences and similarities between the interglacials. The transient simulations which cover a large range of precession, obliquity and eccentricity allow to investigate the response of different climate variables and different regions to the three astronomical parameters. My presentation will focus on the characteristics of the climate forcing and response of MIS-5e and MIS-11 in comparison with the other intergalcials. Their duration and intensity at global and regional scales will be shown and the causes will be discussed. Unique features in astronomical forcing as well as in regional climate response are found in MIS-5e and MIS-11, which might help to understand why they appear to be among the warmest interglacials. The model results also show that the warm interval of MIS-11 is the longest, confirming its long duration as found in many proxy records. The long duration of MIS-11 is related to a particular combination of eccentricity, obliquity and precession as well as to its long-lasting high CO2 concentration. The differences between the seasonal behaviour of the past interglacials highlight the importance of seasonal climate reconstruction and therefore the necessity to obtain seasonal proxies. The simulated climate of MIS-5e and MIS-11 will also be compared with the climate of today and of the future to investigate the differences and similarities between the past warm conditions and the projected future warming. Part of the results are published in: Yin Q.Z. and Berger A., 2015. Interglacial analogues of the Holocene and its natural near future. Quaternary Science Reviews, 120, 28-46. Yin Q.Z. and Berger A., 2012. Individual contribution of insolation and CO2 to the interglacial climates of the past 800,000 years. Climate Dynamics 38:709-724.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

2017-11-01

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Climate change induced salinisation of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production.

PubMed

Bonte, Matthijs; Zwolsman, John J G

2010-08-01

In this paper we present a modelling study to investigate the impacts of climate change on the chloride concentration and salinisation processes in two man-made freshwater lakes in the Netherlands, Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. We used a transient compartmental chloride and water balance model to elucidate the salinisation processes occurring under present conditions and assess future salinisation under two climate forcing scenarios. The model results showed that the Rhine River is the dominant determinant for the chloride concentration in both lakes, followed by drainage of brackish groundwater from the surrounding polders. The results further show that especially during dry years, seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam is an important source of chloride to Lake IJsselmeer. The results from the climatic forcing scenarios show that Lake IJsselmeer is especially vulnerable to climate-induced salinisation whereas effects on Lake Markermeer are relatively small. Peak chloride concentrations at the raw water intake of the Andijk drinking water facility on Lake IJsselmeer are projected to increase to values above 250 mg/l in the most far-reaching climate change scenario W+ in 2050 for dry years. This is well above the maximum allowable concentration of 150 mg/l for chloride in drinking water. Modelling showed that climate change impacts the chloride concentrations in a variety of ways: 1) an increasing occurrence of low river flows from summer to autumn reduces the dilution of the chloride that is emitted to the Rhine with a constant load thereby increasing its concentration; 2) increased open water evaporation and reduced rainfall during summer periods and droughts increases the chloride concentration in the water; and 3) rises in sea level increase seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam of Lake IJsselmeer. The processes described here are likely to affect many other tidal rivers or lakes and should be considered when planning future raw water intake stations for drinking water production or agricultural water supply. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, K.

2005-12-01

I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

2017-04-01

There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional disaster risk and the projection of typhoon is still highly uncertain and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation. Since Taiwan is a small island, different typhoon tracks induce different level of disaster impacts in watersheds. Therefore, more samples dynamic downscaled typhoon events are needed for analysis to improve and increase reliability in future. Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, developing a new statistical downscaling approach and new method to release daily climate change data to hourly data could be a short-term solution.

Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

PubMed

Grandey, B S; Wang, C

2015-08-21

Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

PubMed Central

Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

2015-01-01

Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate. PMID:26293204

Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

2015-08-01

Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

Modeling River Incision Across Active Normal Faults Using the Channel-Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development Model (CHILD): the case of the Central Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attal, M.; Tucker, G.; Whittaker, A.; Cowie, P.; Roberts, G.

2005-12-01

River systems constitute some of the most efficient agents that shape terrestrial landscapes. Fluvial incision rates govern landscape evolution but, due to the variety of processed involved and the difficulty of quantifying them in the field, there is no "universal theory" describing the way rivers incise into bedrock. The last decades have seen the birth of numerous fluvial incision laws associated with models that assign different roles to hydrodynamic variables and to sediments. In order to discriminate between models and constrain their parameters, the transient response of natural river systems to a disturbance (tectonic or climatic) can be used. Indeed, the different models predict different kinds of transient response whereas most models predict a similar power law relationship between slope and drainage area at equilibrium. To this end, a coupled field - modeling study is in progress. The field area consists of the Central Apennines that are subject to active faulting associated with a regional extensional regime. Fault initiation occurred 3 My ago, associated with throw rates of 0.3 +/- 0.2 mm/yr. Due to fault interaction and linkage, the throw rate on the faults located near the center of the fault system increased dramatically 0.7 My ago (up to 2 mm/yr), whereas slip rates on distal faults either decayed or remained approximately constant. The present study uses the landscape evolution model, CHILD, to examine the behavior of rivers draining across these active faults. Distal and central faults are considered in order to track the effects of the fault acceleration on the development of the fluvial network. River characteristics have been measured in the field (e.g. channel width, slope, sediment grain size) and extracted from a 20m DEM (e.g. channel profile, drainage area). We use CHILD to test the ability of alternative incision laws to reproduce observed topography under known tectonic forcing. For each of the fluvial incision models, a Monte-Carlo simulation has been performed, allowing the exploration of a wide range of values for the different parameters relative to tectonic, climate, sediment characteristics, and channel geometry. Observed profiles are consistent with a dominantly wave-like, as opposed to diffusive, transient response to accelerated fault motion. The ability of the different models to reproduce more or less accurately the catchment characteristics, in particular the specific profiles exhibited by the rivers, are discussed in light of our first results.

FGOALS-s2 simulation of upper-level jet streams over East Asia: Mean state bias and synoptic-scale transient eddy activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun

2013-05-01

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux ( E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Bausch, Alexandra; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Xu, Baiqing; Edwards. Ross; Bisiaux, Marion; McConnell, Joe

2013-01-01

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Studies of Trace Gas Chemical Cycles Using Inverse Methods and Global Chemical Transport Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, Ronald G.

2003-01-01

We report progress in the first year, and summarize proposed work for the second year of the three-year dynamical-chemical modeling project devoted to: (a) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for long lived gases important in ozone depletion and climate forcing, (b) utilization of inverse methods to determine these source/sink strengths using either MATCH (Model for Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry) which is based on analyzed observed wind fields or back-trajectories computed from these wind fields, (c) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple titrating gases, and (d) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3D models. Important goals include determination of regional source strengths of methane, nitrous oxide, methyl bromide, and other climatically and chemically important biogenic/anthropogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal protocol and its follow-on agreements and hydrohalocarbons now used as alternatives to the restricted halocarbons.

Importance of unsaturated zone flow for simulating recharge in a humid climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Prudic, David E.; Walker, J.F.; Anderson, M.P.

2008-01-01

Transient recharge to the water table is often not well understood or quantified. Two approaches for simulating transient recharge in a ground water flow model were investigated using the Trout Lake watershed in north-central Wisconsin: (1) a traditional approach of adding recharge directly to the water table and (2) routing the same volume of water through an unsaturated zone column to the water table. Areas with thin (less than 1 m) unsaturated zones showed little difference in timing of recharge between the two approaches; when water was routed through the unsaturated zone, however, less recharge was delivered to the water table and more discharge occurred to the surface because recharge direction and magnitude changed when the water table rose to the land surface. Areas with a thick (15 to 26 m) unsaturated zone were characterized by multimonth lags between infiltration and recharge, and, in some cases, wetting fronts from precipitation events during the fall overtook and mixed with infiltration from the previous spring snowmelt. Thus, in thicker unsaturated zones, the volume of water infiltrated was properly simulated using the traditional approach, but the timing was different from simulations that included unsaturated zone flow. Routing of rejected recharge and ground water discharge at land surface to surface water features also provided a better simulation of the observed flow regime in a stream at the basin outlet. These results demonstrate that consideration of flow through the unsaturated zone may be important when simulating transient ground water flow in humid climates with shallow water tables.

Storylines of socio-economic and climatic drivers for land use and their hydrological impacts in alpine catchments - the STELLA project example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Ulrich; Formayer, Herbert; Förster, Kristian; Marke, Thomas; Meißl, Gertraud; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Friederike; Themessl, Matthias

2016-04-01

Future land use in Alpine catchments is controlled by the evolution of socio-economy and climate. Estimates of their coupled development should hence fulfill the principles of plausibility (be convincing) and consistency (be unambiguous). In the project STELLA, coupled future climate and land use scenarios are used as input in a hydrological modelling exercise with the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim of the project is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The so-called „storylines" of future coupled climate and forest/land use management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy have jointly been developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors. The climate background is given by simulations for the A1B (temperature conditions like today in Merano/Italy, 46.7°N) and RCP 8.5 (temperature conditions like today in Bologna/Italy, 44.5°N) emission scenarios. These two climate scenarios were combined with three potential socio-economic developments („local"/„glocal"/ „superglobal"), each in a positive and in a negative specification. From these twelve storylines of coupled climate/land use future, a set of four storylines was selected to be used in transient hydrological modelling experiments. Historical simulations of the water balance for the test site reveal the pattern of land use being the most prominent factor for the spatial distribution of its components. A new prototype for a snow-canopy interaction simulation module provides explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands in the catchment. This new canopy module will be used to model the coupled climate/land use future storylines for the Brixental. The aim is to quantify the effects of climate change and land use on the water balance and streamflow, both separately and in their respective combination.

Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Pankaj; Wiltshire, Andrew; Mathison, Camilla; Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Christensen, Jens H; Gobiet, Andreas; Saeed, Fahad; Hagemann, Stefan; Jacob, Daniela

2013-12-01

This study presents the possible regional climate change over South Asia with a focus over India as simulated by three very high resolution regional climate models (RCMs). One of the most striking results is a robust increase in monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century but regional differences in strength. First the ability of RCMs to simulate the monsoon climate is analyzed. For this purpose all three RCMs are forced with ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1989-2008 at a horizontal resolution of ~25 km. The results are compared against independent observations. In order to simulate future climate the models are driven by lateral boundary conditions from two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) using the SRES A1B scenario, except for one RCM, which only used data from one GCM. The results are presented for the full transient simulation period 1970-2099 and also for several time slices. The analysis concentrates on precipitation and temperature over land. All models show a clear signal of gradually wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming over India is 1.5°C at the end of 2050, whereas it is 3.9°C at the end of century with respect to 1970-1999. The pattern of projected precipitation changes shows considerable spatial variability, with an increase in precipitation over the peninsular of India and coastal areas and, either no change or decrease further inland. From the analysis of a larger ensemble of global climate models using the A1B scenario a wide spread warming (~3.2°C) and an overall increase (~8.5%) in mean monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century is very likely. The influence of the driving GCM on the projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of East Asian Sulfate Aerosols on Local and Remote Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosols exert significant climate forcing, which increases with emissions following trends of growing population and industry. Globally, aerosols cause a net cooling, counteracting greenhouse gas warming; however, regional impacts vary since emissions are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. While European and North American emissions have decreased in recent decades, Asian, particularly East Asian, emissions continued to rise into the 21st century. In addition to links between Asian anthropogenic aerosols and significant local climate impacts - for example, changes to the Asian monsoon system - studies have also shown influences on remote climate. Sulfate aerosols are particularly important for East Asia, remaining at constant levels higher than column burdens of other aerosol species. If a concerted effort - as laid out by government policies aiming to improve air quality - is made, the effects of anthropogenic aerosols (due to their short atmospheric lifetime) could be quickly reversed. Thus, it is vital to understand the climate impact aerosols have had up to now to aid in determining what will happen in the future. We use transient climate modelling experiments with the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of East Asian sulfate aerosols in the present day compared to 1950 (i.e. before rapid industrialisation in this region), focusing on dynamical mechanisms leading to the occurrence of such impacts, and how their influence can spread to remote regions. We find, in addition to significant monsoon impacts, noticeable shifts in large-scale circulation features such as the ITCZ and the Pacific Walker cell. Through diabatic heating responses, changes to upper-level atmospheric dynamics are evident, leading to downstream effects on surface climate - for example, surface cooling over Europe. Understanding of these impacts is vital when considering how the good intentions of air quality improvement might inadvertently have significant impacts on future climate on regional scales.

Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, L. B.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; de Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

2014-12-01

During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Data informatics for the Detection, Characterization, and Attribution of Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; O'Brien, T. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Krishnan, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Prabhat, M.

2015-12-01

The potential for increasing frequency and intensity of extremephenomena including downpours, heat waves, and tropical cyclonesconstitutes one of the primary risks of climate change for society andthe environment. The challenge of characterizing these risks is thatextremes represent the "tails" of distributions of atmosphericphenomena and are, by definition, highly localized and typicallyrelatively transient. Therefore very large volumes of observationaldata and projections of future climate are required to quantify theirproperties in a robust manner. Massive data analytics are required inorder to detect individual extremes, accumulate statistics on theirproperties, quantify how these statistics are changing with time, andattribute the effects of anthropogenic global warming on thesestatistics. We describe examples of the suite of techniques the climate communityis developing to address these analytical challenges. The techniquesinclude massively parallel methods for detecting and trackingatmospheric rivers and cyclones; data-intensive extensions togeneralized extreme value theory to summarize the properties ofextremes; and multi-model ensembles of hindcasts to quantify theattributable risk of anthropogenic influence on individual extremes.We conclude by highlighting examples of these methods developed by ourCASCADE (Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, andDetection of Extremes) project.

Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

2015-04-01

Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more productive. Given the limitations of an ESM, the findings of our study show that changes in the kind and intensity of land use have minor effects on the climate. Consequently, implications of extreme land use on e.g. human security, conflict or migration can be investigated in offline simulations.

Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Christensen, Hannah M.; Juricke, Stephan; Subramanian, Aneesh; Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, Antje; Palmer, Tim N.

2017-03-01

The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850-2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate - specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

The Impact Snow Albedo Feedback over Mountain Regions as Examined through High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Experiments over the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letcher, Theodore

As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo global warming (PGW) framework, which is an experimental configuration in a which a mean climate perturbation is added to the boundary forcing of a regional model, thus preserving the large-scale circulation entering the region through the model boundaries and isolating the mesoscale climate response. Using this framework, the impact of the SAF on the regional energetics and atmospheric dynamics is examined and quantified. Linear feedback analysis is used to quantify the strength of the SAF over the Headwaters region of the Colorado Rockies for a series of high-resolution PGW experiments. This technique is used to test sensitivity of the feedback strength to model resolution and land surface model. Over the Colorado Rockies, and integrated over the entire spring season, the SAF strength is largely insensitive to model resolution, however there are more substantial differences on the sub-seasonal (monthly) timescale. In contrast, the SAF strength over this region is very sensitive to choice of land surface model. These simulations are also used to investigate how spatial and diurnal variability in warming caused by the SAF influences the dynamics of thermally driven mountain-breeze circulations. It is shown that, the SAF causes stronger daytime mountain-breeze circulations by increasing the warming on the mountains slopes thus enhancing the thermal contrast between the mountain slopes and the surrounding lowlands which drives these wind systems. This analysis is extended to investigate the impacts that the SAF has on the large-scale mountain-plain circulation that develops east of the Rockies over the Great Plains. To help isolate the SAF, a more idealized regional climate experiment which isolates the SAF is performed. It was found that SAF may influence thermally driven atmospheric dynamics up-to 200km east of the Mountains where the SAF originates, suggesting broader regional impacts of the SAF which may not be well resolved by coarser resolution global climate models. The implications of these changes on pollution transport and moist convection are also explored using these simulations.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dargaville, R.J.; Heimann, Martin; McGuire, A.D.; Prentice, I.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Joos, F.; Clein, Joy S.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Kaplan, J.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Sitch, S.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2002-01-01

An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.

Water Futures for Cold Mountain Ecohydrology under Climate Change - Results from the North American Cordilleran Transect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Fang, X.; Whitfield, P. H.; Marks, D. G.; Janowicz, J. R.

2017-12-01

A transect comprising three intensively researched mountain headwater catchments stretching from the northern US to northern Canada provides the basis to downscale climate models outputs for mountain hydrology and insight for an assessment of water futures under changing climate and vegetation using a physically based hydrological model. Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho; Marmot Creek, Alberta and Wolf Creek, Yukon are high mountain catchments dominated by forests and alpine shrub and grass vegetation with long-term snow, hydrometric and meteorological observations and extensive ecohydrological process studies. The physically based, modular, flexible and object-oriented Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling Platform (CRHM) was used to create custom spatially distributed hydrological models for these three catchments. Model parameterisations were based on knowledge of hydrological processes, basin physiography, soils and vegetation with minimal or no calibration from streamflow measurements. The models were run over multidecadal periods using high-elevation meteorological observations to assess the recent ecohydrological functioning of these catchments. The results showed unique features in each catchment, from snowdrift-fed aspen pocket forests in Reynolds Mountain East, to deep late-lying snowdrifts at treeline larch forests in Marmot Creek, and snow-trapping shrub tundra overlying discontinuous permafrost in Wolf Creek. The meteorological observations were then perturbed using the changes in monthly temperature and precipitation predicted by the NARCCAP modelling outputs for the mid-21st C. In all catchments there is a dramatic decline in snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and of snow interception by and sublimation from evergreen canopies that is associated with warmer winters. Reduced sublimation loss only partially compensated for greater rainfall fractions of precipitation. Under climate change, snowmelt was earlier and slower and at the lowest elevations and latitudes produced less proportion of runoff from snowmelt. Transient vegetation changes counteracted increasing streamflow yields from climate change partly due to increased snow retention by enhanced vegetation heights at high elevations and reduced vegetation canopy coverage at low elevations.

The effect of flexural isostasy on the response time of orogenic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, J.; Margirier, A.; Guerit, L.

2017-12-01

The concept of orogenic steady-state implies that mountain belts can reach a dynamic balance between uplift and erosion in order to maintain a quasi-constant shape. The final morphology of the mountain will be a function of the relative efficiency between uplift and erosion and is therefore likely to be modulated by climate. However, reaching such a steady-state cannot be instantaneous and there must exist a time lag between the onset of convergence and the full development of the mountain topography. Similarly, when an orogenic system is subject to a marked change in convergence rate or in climatic conditions, it takes a certain time for it to adapt to such a change and develop a new steady-state morphology. It is during these transient phases that the nature and efficiency of the interactions between tectonics and climate are most likely to be constrained by observations and understood. The duration of this transient stage remains, however, poorly constrained and understood. As shown by many authors (Whipple and Tucker, 1999, for example) the rate at which tectonic systems evolve to reach steady-state is likely controlled by climate and rock strength, which both determine the efficiency of erosional processes, and the rate of uplift. Here we show that isostasy also plays a very important role in determining the length of the transient phase and that, depending on the level of isostatic adjustment, which in turn depends on the flexural strength of the underlying lithosphere, isostasy can change the time it takes for an orogenic system to reach steady-state by an order of magnitude, i.,e. from a few millions to a few tens of millions of years. This has very important implications. It may explain why many young orogenic systems display an increase in uplift and erosion rate millions of years after the onset of collision and that, in these situations, such an increase does not require a steady change in tectonic and/or climate conditions/forcing. We also show that this "isostatic buffering" of orogenic response to abrupt changes in tectonic or climatic perturbations can not only lengthen the duration of the transient period, but also dampen the amplitude of the resulting erosional flux. This makes it sometimes difficult to extract the signature of these events from the sedimentary record.

Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouttes, N.; Paillard, D.; Roche, D. M.; Waelbroeck, C.; Kageyama, M.; Lourantou, A.; Michel, E.; Bopp, L.

2012-01-01

During the last termination (from ~18 000 years ago to ~9000 years ago), the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a coupled climate-carbon model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependent diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO2, and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ13C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 years ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. In this scenario, we make the hypothesis that sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario, it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the long-term CO2 increase during the last termination in agreement with ice core data. The atmospheric δ13C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouttes, N.; Paillard, D.; Roche, D. M.; Waelbroeck, C.; Kageyama, M.; Lourantou, A.; Michel, E.; Bopp, L.

2011-06-01

During the last termination (from ~18 000 yr ago to ~9000 yr ago) the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a climate-carbon coupled model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependant diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO2, and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ13C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 yr ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. Sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the CO2 increase during the last termination in agreement with data. The atmospheric δ13C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Modeling of Greenland outlet glaciers response to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, J.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades net mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) quadrupled, resulting in 25% of the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Increased mass loss of the GIS is caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers. This speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and by increased subglacial, meltwater discharge. Yet, ice-ocean processes are not properly represented in contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet models used to project future changes in the GIS. In this work, we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional (depth- and width- integrated) ice flow model for several representative outlet glaciers in Greenland. We investigate the dynamic response of the coupled ice-flow plume model to scenarios of future climate change. In particular, we examine the transient response of the outlet glaciers to projected changes in surface melting, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge. With our modeling approach we quantify the amount of the surface and submarine melting and the resulting retreat and mass loss for each individual glacier for the next 100 years.

Disentangling Aerosol Cooling and Greenhouse Warming to Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, Trude; Leirvik, Thomas; Phillips, Petter; Lohmann, Ulrike; Wild, Martin

2015-04-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present a study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

The progressive aridification of southwest North America: The what, the why, the when and the how (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seager, R.; Liu, H.; Henderson, N.; Kushnir, Y.; Ting, M.; Cook, B.; Nakamura, J.

2013-12-01

The latest generation of global coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five (CMIP5), much anticipated after the prior CMIP3 models projected the southwest of North America to transition in the near term to a more arid climate, turned out to be a case of deja-vu all over again. While suggesting that northern California might get more midwinter precipitation, overall the CMIP5 models, like their CMIP3 precursors, project that the interior southwest of the U.S., most of Mexico, Texas and the southern Plains, will progressively transition to a more arid climate with reduced precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration driving a reduction in soil moisture and streamflow. An about 10% reduction of Colorado River flow for the 2021-2040 period relative to the last half of the 20th Century appears a good ball park number to motivate adaptation efforts. Here we will present new detailed analyses of Reanalysis and CMIP5 model moisture budgets to determine the causes of the projected aridification. The role of moisture convergences by the mean and transient flows will be addressed as well as the dynamical causes of the shifts in atmospheric circulation that contribute to drying or locally offset it. The hydroclimate history of the West for the past few decades will also be examined for evidence that model projected aridification is in progress or cannot currently be detected amidst the large natural variability of hydroclimate in the region. But it will be cautioned that waiting for statistical significance might be as fruitful as Waiting for Godot while, during the wait, the southwest will already have transitioned into a troublingly drier climate with serious impacts on people, societies, ecosystems and agriculture.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

Advantages of 3D FEM numerical modeling over 2D, analyzed in a case study of transient thermal-hydraulic groundwater utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchsluger, Martin; Götzl, Gregor

2014-05-01

In general most aquifers have a much larger lateral extent than vertical. This fact leads to the application of the Dupuit-Forchheimer assumptions to many groundwater problems, whereas a two dimensional simulation is considered sufficient. By coupling transient fluid flow modeling with heat transport the 2D aquifer approximation is in many cases insufficient as it does not consider effects of the subjacent and overlying aquitards on heat propagation as well as the impact of surface climatic effects on shallow aquifers. A shallow Holocene aquifer in Vienna served as a case study to compare different modeling approaches in two and three dimensions in order to predict the performance and impact of a thermal aquifer utilization for heating (1.3 GWh) and cooling (1.4 GWh) of a communal building. With the assumption of a 6 doublets well field, the comparison was realized in three steps: At first a two dimensional model for unconfined flow was set up, assuming a varying hydraulic conductivity as well as a varying top and bottom elevation of the aquifer (gross - thickness). The model area was chosen along constant hydraulic head at steady state conditions. A second model was made by mapping solely the aquifer in three dimensions using the same subdomain and boundary conditions as defined in step one. The third model consists of a complete three dimensional geological build-up including the aquifer as well as the overlying and subjacent layers and additionally an annually variable climatic boundary condition at the surface. The latter was calibrated with measured water temperature at a nearby water gauge. For all three models the same annual operating mode of the 6 hydraulic doublets was assumed. Furthermore a limited maximal groundwater temperature at a range between 8 and 18 °C as well as a constrained well flow rate has been given. Finally a descriptive comparison of the three models concerning the extracted thermal power, drawdown, temperature distribution and Darcy flow has been realized. In addition the effects of the basement of the building to the groundwater flow have been analyzed. The results of the 2D model show an underestimation of more than 10 % of the performance of the groundwater utilization facility and a considerable smaller groundwater table drawdown compared to the 3D simulations. This is due to the possibility of 3D modeling to consider (i) the heat distribution and storage in the adjacent layers, (ii) the climatic surface effect and (iii) vertical groundwater flow.

Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

2017-04-01

Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-01-01

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy–atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models. PMID:26635077

The oceanic origin of path-independent carbon budgets.

PubMed

MacDougall, Andrew H

2017-09-04

Virtually all Earth system models (ESM) show a near proportional relationship between cumulative emissions of CO 2 and change in global mean temperature, a relationship which is independent of the emissions pathway taken to reach a cumulative emissions total. The relationship, which has been named the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO 2 Emissions (TCRE), gives rise to the concept of a 'carbon budget'. That is, a finite amount of carbon that can be burnt whilst remaining below some chosen global temperature change threshold, such as the 2.0 °C target set by the Paris Agreement. Here we show that the path-independence of TCRE arises from the partitioning ratio of anthropogenic carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere being almost the same as the partitioning ratio of enhanced radiative forcing between the ocean and space. That these ratios are so close in value is a coincidence unique to CO 2 . The simple model used here is underlain by many assumptions and simplifications but does reproduce key aspects of the climate system relevant to the path-independence of carbon budgets. Our results place TCRE and carbon budgets on firm physical foundations and therefore help validate the use of these metrics for climate policy.

Primary production sensitivity to phytoplankton light attenuation parameter increases with transient forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvale, Karin F.; Meissner, Katrin J.

2017-10-01

Treatment of the underwater light field in ocean biogeochemical models has been attracting increasing interest, with some models moving towards more complex parameterisations. We conduct a simple sensitivity study of a typical, highly simplified parameterisation. In our study, we vary the phytoplankton light attenuation parameter over a range constrained by data during both pre-industrial equilibrated and future climate scenario RCP8.5. In equilibrium, lower light attenuation parameters (weaker self-shading) shift net primary production (NPP) towards the high latitudes, while higher values of light attenuation (stronger shelf-shading) shift NPP towards the low latitudes. Climate forcing magnifies this relationship through changes in the distribution of nutrients both within and between ocean regions. Where and how NPP responds to climate forcing can determine the magnitude and sign of global NPP trends in this high CO2 future scenario. Ocean oxygen is particularly sensitive to parameter choice. Under higher CO2 concentrations, two simulations establish a strong biogeochemical feedback between the Southern Ocean and low-latitude Pacific that highlights the potential for regional teleconnection. Our simulations serve as a reminder that shifts in fundamental properties (e.g. light attenuation by phytoplankton) over deep time have the potential to alter global biogeochemistry.

Climate Adaptation Capacity for Conventional Drinking Water Treatment Facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, A.; Goodrich, J.; Yang, J.

2013-12-01

Water supplies are vulnerable to a host of climate- and weather-related stressors such as droughts, intense storms/flooding, snowpack depletion, sea level changes, and consequences from fires, landslides, and excessive heat or cold. Surface water resources (lakes, reservoirs, rivers, and streams) are especially susceptible to weather-induced changes in water availability and quality. The risks to groundwater systems may also be significant. Typically, water treatment facilities are designed with an underlying assumption that water quality from a given source is relatively predictable based on historical data. However, increasing evidence of the lack of stationarity is raising questions about the validity of traditional design assumptions, particularly since the service life of many facilities can exceed fifty years. Given that there are over 150,000 public water systems in the US that deliver drinking water to over 300 million people every day, it is important to evaluate the capacity for adapting to the impacts of a changing climate. Climate and weather can induce or amplify changes in physical, chemical, and biological water quality, reaction rates, the extent of water-sediment-air interactions, and also impact the performance of treatment technologies. The specific impacts depend on the watershed characteristics and local hydrological and land-use factors. Water quality responses can be transient, such as erosion-induced increases in sediment and runoff. Longer-term impacts include changes in the frequency and intensity of algal blooms, gradual changes in the nature and concentration of dissolved organic matter, dissolved solids, and modulation of the microbiological community structure, sources and survival of pathogens. In addition, waterborne contaminants associated with municipal, industrial, and agricultural activities can also impact water quality. This presentation evaluates relationships between climate and weather induced water quality variability and the capacity of treatment facilities and supporting water infrastructure to deliver safe drinking water consistently and reliably. Simulation models of water treatment facilities are used to evaluate the outcome of specific source water quality scenarios on treatment system performance and reliability. Modeling results are used to evaluate the process and operational capacity to respond to transient water quality changes and adapt to longer-term variability in water quality and availability. In some cases, changes in temperature and mineral content serve to improve the overall treatment performance. In addition, the integration of microbially enhanced treatment systems such as biological filtration can provide additional capacity. Conversely, changes in the nutrient and temperature dynamics can trigger algal and cyanobacterial blooms that can impair performance. Research needs are identified and the importance of developing more integrated modeling systems is highlighted.

A series RCL circuit theory for analyzing non-steady-state water uptake of maize plants.

PubMed

Zhuang, Jie; Yu, Gui-Rui; Nakayama, Keiichi

2014-10-22

Understanding water uptake and transport through the soil-plant continuum is vital for ecosystem management and agricultural water use. Plant water uptake under natural conditions is a non-steady transient flow controlled by root distribution, plant configuration, soil hydraulics, and climatic conditions. Despite significant progress in model development, a mechanistic description of transient water uptake has not been developed or remains incomplete. Here, based on advanced electrical network theory (RLC circuit theory), we developed a non-steady state biophysical model to mechanistically analyze the fluctuations of uptake rates in response to water stress. We found that the non-steady-state model captures the nature of instantaneity and hysteresis of plant water uptake due to the considerations of water storage in plant xylem and coarse roots (capacitance effect), hydraulic architecture of leaf system (inductance effect), and soil-root contact (fuse effect). The model provides insights into the important role of plant configuration and hydraulic heterogeneity in helping plants survive an adverse environment. Our tests against field data suggest that the non-steady-state model has great potential for being used to interpret the smart water strategy of plants, which is intrinsically determined by stem size, leaf size/thickness and distribution, root system architecture, and the ratio of fine-to-coarse root lengths.

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE PAGES

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; ...

2017-02-08

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2017-01-01

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: an appraisal of adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Wilby, R L; Butterfield, D; Wade, A J

2006-07-15

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; Bryan, Frank O.

2017-05-01

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracer age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26-27.2 σθ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; ...

2017-03-17

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Frank W.; Sweet, Lynn C.; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Franklin, Janet; McCullough, Ian M.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dingman, John; Regan, Helen M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Hannah, Lee; Redmond, Kelly; Moritz, Max A.

2016-01-01

Seedling establishment is a critical step that may ultimately govern tree species’ distribution shifts under environmental change. Annual variation in the location of seed rain and microclimates results in transient “windows of opportunity” for tree seedling establishment across the landscape. These establishment windows vary at fine spatiotemporal scales that are not considered in most assessments of climate change impacts on tree species range dynamics and habitat displacement. We integrate field seedling establishment trials conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada and western Tehachapi Mountains of southern California with spatially downscaled grids of modeled water-year climatic water deficit (CWDwy) and mean August maximum daily temperature (Tmax) to map historical and projected future microclimates suitable for establishment windows of opportunity for Quercus douglasii, a dominant tree species of warm, dry foothill woodlands, and Q. kelloggii, a dominant of cooler, more mesic montane woodlands and forests. Based on quasi-binomial regression models, Q. douglasii seedling establishment is significantly associated with modeled CWDwy and to a lesser degree with modeled Tmax. Q. kelloggii seedling establishment is most strongly associated with Tmax and best predicted by a two-factor model including CWDwy and Tmax. Establishment niche models are applied to explore recruitment window dynamics in the western Tehachapi Mountains, where these species are currently widespread canopy dominants. Establishment windows are projected to decrease by 50–95%, shrinking locally to higher elevations and north-facing slopes by the end of this century depending on the species and climate scenario. These decreases in establishment windows suggest the potential for longer-term regional population declines of the species. While many additional processes regulate seedling establishment and growth, this study highlights the need to account for topoclimatic controls and interannual climatic variation when assessing how seedling establishment and colonization processes could be affected by climate change.

Easy Volcanic Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toohey, Matthew; Stevens, Bjorn; Schmidt, Hauke; Timmreck, Claudia

2016-04-01

Radiative forcing by stratospheric sulfate aerosol of volcanic origin is one of the strongest drivers of natural climate variability. Transient model simulations attempting to match observed climate variability, such as the CMIP historical simulations, rely on volcanic forcing reconstructions based on observations of a small sample of recent eruptions and coarse proxy data for eruptions before the satellite era. Volcanic forcing data sets used in CMIP5 were provided either in terms of optical properties, or in terms of sulfate aerosol mass, leading to significant inter-model spread in the actual volcanic radiative forcing produced by models and in their resulting climate responses. It remains therefore unclear to what degree inter-model spread in response to volcanic forcing represents model differences or variations in the forcing. In order to isolate model differences, Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) provides an analytic representation of volcanic stratospheric aerosol forcing, based on available observations and aerosol model results, prescribing the aerosol's radiative properties and primary modes of spatial and temporal variability. In contrast to regriddings of observational data, EVA allows for the production of physically consistent forcing for historic and hypothetical eruptions of varying magnitude, source latitude, and season. Within CMIP6, EVA will be used to reconstruct volcanic forcing over the past 2000 years for use in the Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), and will provide forcing sets for VolMIP experiments aiming to quantify model uncertainty in the response to volcanic forcing. Here, the functional form of EVA will be introduced, along with illustrative examples including the EVA-based reconstruction of volcanic forcing over the historical period, and that of the 1815 Tambora eruption.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Impact of dynamic vegetation phenology on the simulated pan-Arctic land surface state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teufel, Bernardo; Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek K.; Verseghy, Diana

2018-03-01

The pan-Arctic land surface is undergoing rapid changes in a warming climate, with near-surface permafrost projected to degrade significantly during the twenty-first century. Vegetation-related feedbacks have the potential to influence the rate of degradation of permafrost. In this study, the impact of dynamic phenology on the pan-Arctic land surface state, particularly near-surface permafrost, for the 1961-2100 period, is assessed by comparing two simulations of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)—one with dynamic phenology, modelled using the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), and the other with prescribed phenology. These simulations are forced by atmospheric data from a transient climate change simulation of the 5th generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Comparison of the CLASS coupled to CTEM simulation to available observational estimates of plant area index, spatial distribution of permafrost and active layer thickness suggests that the model captures reasonably well the overall distribution of vegetation and permafrost. It is shown that the most important impact of dynamic phenology on the land surface occurs through albedo and it is demonstrated for the first time that vegetation control on albedo during late spring and early summer has the highest potential to impact the degradation of permafrost. While both simulations show extensive near-surface permafrost degradation by the end of the twenty-first century, the strong projected response of vegetation to climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations in the coupled simulation results in accelerated permafrost degradation in the northernmost continuous permafrost regions.

Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant parameter values over the whole reference period. Further, preliminary results suggest that some trends in parameter values do not reflect changes in hydrological processes, as reported by others previously, but instead might stem from a modeling artifact related to the parameterization of evapotranspiration, which is overly sensitive to temperature increase. We adopt a trading-space-for-time approach to better understand whether robust relationships between parameter values and forcing can be established, and to critically explore the rationale behind time-dependent parameter values in conceptual hydrological models.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Reconstructing the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets with Ice Sheet Models; data-model comparison and focus on the Storfjorden (Svalbard) ice stream dynamics history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrini, Michele; Kirchner, Nina; Colleoni, Florence; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G.; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R.

2017-04-01

The challenge of reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets past growth and decay represent a critical task to better understand mechanisms of present and future global climate change. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the subsequent deglaciation until Pre-Industrial time (PI) represent an excellent testing ground for numerical Ice Sheet Models (ISMs), due to the abundant data available that can be used in an ISM as boundary conditions, forcings or constraints to test the ISMs results. In our study, we simulate with ISMs the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets, with a focus on the marine-based Svalbard-Barents Sea-Kara Sea Ice Sheet. In particular, we aim to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history by comparing the model results with the marine geological data (MSGLs, GZWs, sediment cores analysis) available from the area, e.g., Pedrosa et al. 2011, Rebesco et al. 2011, 2013, Lucchi et al. 2013. Two hybrid SIA/SSA ISMs are employed, GRISLI, Ritz et al. 2001, and PSU, Pollard&DeConto 2012. These models differ mainly in the complexity with which grounding line migration is treated. Climate forcing is interpolated by means of climate indexes between LGM and PI climate. Regional climate indexes are constructed based on the non-accelerated deglaciation transient experiment carried out with CCSM3, Liu et al. 2009. Indexes representative of the climate evolution over Siberia, Svalbard and Scandinavia are employed. The impact of such refined representation as opposed to the common use of the NGRIP δ18O index for transient experiments is analysed. In this study, the ice-ocean interaction is crucial to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history. To investigate the sensitivity of the ice shelf/stream retreat to ocean temperature, we allow for a space-time variation of basal melting under the ice shelves by testing two-equations implementations based on Martin et al. 2011 forced with simulated ocean temperature and salinity from the TraCE-21ka coupled climate simulation. In this presentation, we will show work in progress, address open issues, and sketch future work. In particular, we invite the community to suggest possibilities for model-data comparison and integration. Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., He, F., Brady, E.C., Tomas, R., Clark, P.U., Carlson, A.E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E. and Erickson, D., 2009. Transient simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bólling-Alleród warming. Science, 325(5938), pp.310-314. Lucchi, R.G., Camerlenghi, A., Rebesco, M., Colmenero-Hidalgo, E., Sierro, F.J., Sagnotti, L., Urgeles, R., Melis, R., Morigi, C., Bárcena, M.A. and Giorgetti, G., 2013. Postglacial sedimentary processes on the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough mouth fans: Significance of extreme glacimarine sedimentation. Global and planetary change, 111, pp.309-326. Martin, M.A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C. and Levermann, A., 2011. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK)-Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Cryosphere, 5(3), pp.727-740. Pedrosa, M.T., Camerlenghi, A., De Mol, B., Urgeles, R., Rebesco, M. and Lucchi, R.G., 2011. Seabed morphology and shallow sedimentary structure of the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough-mouth fans (north west Barents Sea). Marine Geology, 286(1), pp.65-81. Pollard, D. and DeConto, R.M., 2012. Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(5), pp.1273-1295. Rebesco, M., Liu, Y., Camerlenghi, A., Winsborrow, M., Laberg, J.S., Caburlotto, A., Diviacco, P., Accettella, D., Sauli, C., Wardell, N. and Tomini, I., 2011. Deglaciation of the western margin of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet-a swath bathymetric and sub-bottom seismic study from the Kveithola Trough. Marine Geology, 279(1), pp.141-147. Rebesco, M., Laberg, J., Pedrosa, M., Camerlenghi, A., Lucchi, R., Zgur, F. and Wardell, N., 2013. Onset and growth of Trough-Mouth Fans on the North-Western Barents Sea margin e implications for the evolution of the Barents Sea/Svalbard Ice Sheet. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, pp.1-8. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C., 2001. Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 106(D23), pp.31943-31964.

Modeling North American Ice Sheet Response to Changes in Precession and Obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, C.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

2012-12-01

Milankovitch theory proposes that changes in insolation due to orbital perturbations dictate the waxing and waning of the ice sheets (Hays et al., 1976). However, variations in solar forcing alone are insufficient to produce the glacial oscillations observed in the climate record. Non-linear feedbacks in the Earth system likely work in concert with the orbital cycles to produce a modified signal (e.g. Berger and Loutre, 1996), but the nature of these feedbacks remain poorly understood. To gain a better understand of the ice dynamics and climate feedbacks associated with changes in orbital configuration, we use a complex Earth system model consisting of the GENESIS GCM and land surface model (Pollard and Thompson, 1997), the Pennsylvania State University ice sheet model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009), and the BIOME vegetation model (Kaplan et al., 2001). We began this study by investigating ice sheet sensitivity to a range of commonly used ice sheet model parameters, including mass balance and albedo, to optimize simulations for Pleistocene orbital cycles. Our tests indicate that choice of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can lead to significant differences in ice sheet behavior and volume. For instance, use of an insolation-temperature mass balance scheme (van den Berg, 2008) allows for a larger ice sheet response to orbital changes than the commonly employed positive degree-day method. Inclusion of a large temperature dependent ice albedo, representing phenomena such as melt ponds and dirty ice, also enhances ice sheet sensitivity. Careful tuning of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can help alleviate the problem of insufficient ice sheet retreat during periods of high summer insolation (Horton and Poulsen, 2007) while still accurately replicating the modern climate. Using our optimized configuration, we conducted a series of experiments with idealized transient orbits in an asynchronous coupling scheme to investigate the influence of obliquity and precession on the Laurentide and Cordillera ice sheets of North America. Preliminary model results show that the ice sheet response to changes in obliquity are larger than for precession despite providing a smaller direct insolation variation in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. A combination of enhanced Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature gradient and longer cycle duration allow for a larger ice sheet response to obliquity than would be expected from insolation forcing alone. Conversely, a shorter duration dampens the ice sheet response to precession. Nevertheless, the precession cycle does cause significant changes in ice volume, a feature not observed in the Early Pleistocene δ18O records (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003). Future work will examine the climate response to an idealized transient orbit that includes concurrent variations in obliquity, precession, and eccentricity.

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

Modeling Elevation and Aspect Controls on Emerging Ecohydrologic Processes and Ecosystem Patterns Using the Component-based Landlab Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nudurupati, S. S.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Adams, J. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Hutton, E. W. H.

2014-12-01

Topography plays a commanding role on the organization of ecohydrologic processes and resulting vegetation patterns. In southwestern United States, climate conditions lead to terrain aspect- and elevation-controlled ecosystems, with mesic north-facing and xeric south-facing vegetation types; and changes in biodiversity as a function of elevation from shrublands in low desert elevations, to mixed grass/shrublands in mid elevations, and forests at high elevations and ridge tops. These observed patterns have been attributed to differences in topography-mediated local soil moisture availability, micro-climatology, and life history processes of plants that control chances of plant establishment and survival. While ecohydrologic models represent local vegetation dynamics in sufficient detail up to sub-hourly time scales, plant life history and competition for space and resources has not been adequately represented in models. In this study we develop an ecohydrologic cellular automata model within the Landlab component-based modeling framework. This model couples local vegetation dynamics (biomass production, death) and plant establishment and competition processes for resources and space. This model is used to study the vegetation organization in a semiarid New Mexico catchment where elevation and hillslope aspect play a defining role on plant types. Processes that lead to observed plant types across the landscape are examined by initializing the domain with randomly assigned plant types and systematically changing model parameters that couple plant response with soil moisture dynamics. Climate perturbation experiments are conducted to examine the plant response in space and time. Understanding the inherently transient ecohydrologic systems is critical to improve predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems.

Sea-salt injections into the low-latitude marine boundary layer: The transient response in three Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alterskjær, Kari; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Boucher, Olivier; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, Michael; Timmreck, Claudia

2013-11-01

proposed mechanisms for counteracting global warming through solar radiation management is the deliberate injection of sea salt acting via marine cloud brightening and the direct effect of sea-salt aerosols. In this study, we show results from multidecadal simulations of such sea-salt climate engineering (SSCE) on top of the RCP4.5 emission scenario using three Earth system models. As in the proposed "G3" experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, SSCE is designed to keep the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing at the 2020 level for 50 years. SSCE is then turned off and the models run for another 20 years, enabling an investigation of the abrupt warming associated with a termination of climate engineering ("termination effect"). As in former idealized studies, the climate engineering in all three models leads to a significant suppression of evaporation from low-latitude oceans and reduced precipitation over low-latitude oceans as well as in the storm-track regions. Unlike those studies, however, we find in all models enhanced evaporation, cloud formation, and precipitation over low-latitude land regions. This is a response to the localized cooling over the low-latitude oceans imposed by the SSCE design. As a result, the models obtain reduced aridity in many low-latitude land regions as well as in southern Europe. Terminating the SSCE leads to a rapid near-surface temperature increase, which, in the Arctic, exceeds 2 K in all three models within 20 years after SSCE has ceased. In the same period September Arctic sea ice cover shrinks by over 25%.

Novel applications of the temporal kernel method: Historical and future radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E.; Solomon, S.; Murphy, D. M.

2017-12-01

We present a new estimate of the historical radiative forcing derived from the observed global mean surface temperature and a model derived kernel function. Current estimates of historical radiative forcing are usually derived from climate models. Despite large variability in these models, the multi-model mean tends to do a reasonable job of representing the Earth system and climate. One method of diagnosing the transient radiative forcing in these models requires model output of top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and global mean temperature anomaly. It is difficult to apply this method to historical observations due to the lack of TOA radiative measurements before CERES. We apply the temporal kernel method (TKM) of calculating radiative forcing to the historical global mean temperature anomaly. This novel approach is compared against the current regression based methods using model outputs and shown to produce consistent forcing estimates giving confidence in the forcing derived from the historical temperature record. The derived TKM radiative forcing provides an estimate of the forcing time series that the average climate model needs to produce the observed temperature record. This forcing time series is found to be in good overall agreement with previous estimates but includes significant differences that will be discussed. The historical anthropogenic aerosol forcing is estimated as a residual from the TKM and found to be consistent with earlier moderate forcing estimates. In addition, this method is applied to future temperature projections to estimate the radiative forcing required to achieve those temperature goals, such as those set in the Paris agreement.

The solsticial pause on Mars: 2 modelling and investigation of causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulholland, David P.; Lewis, Stephen R.; Read, Peter L.; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Forget, Francois

2016-01-01

The martian solsticial pause, presented in a companion paper (Lewis et al., 2016), was investigated further through a series of model runs using the UK version of the LMD/UK Mars Global Climate Model. It was found that the pause could not be adequately reproduced if radiatively active water ice clouds were omitted from the model. When clouds were used, along with a realistic time-dependent dust opacity distribution, a substantial minimum in near-surface transient eddy activity formed around solstice in both hemispheres. The net effect of the clouds in the model is, by altering the thermal structure of the atmosphere, to decrease the vertical shear of the westerly jet near the surface around solstice, and thus reduce baroclinic growth rates. A similar effect was seen under conditions of large dust loading, implying that northern midlatitude eddy activity will tend to become suppressed after a period of intense flushing storm formation around the northern cap edge. Suppression of baroclinic eddy generation by the barotropic component of the flow and via diabatic eddy dissipation were also investigated as possible mechanisms leading to the formation of the solsticial pause but were found not to make major contributions. Zonal variations in topography were found to be important, as their presence results in weakened transient eddies around winter solstice in both hemispheres, through modification of the near-surface flow. The zonal topographic asymmetry appears to be the primary reason for the weakness of eddy activity in the southern hemisphere relative to the northern hemisphere, and the ultimate cause of the solsticial pause in both hemispheres. The meridional topographic gradient was found to exert a much weaker influence on near-surface transient eddies.

An improved land biosphere module for use in the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.1) with application to the last glacial termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichinger, Roland; Shaffer, Gary; Albarrán, Nelson; Rojas, Maisa; Lambert, Fabrice

2017-09-01

Interactions between the land biosphere and the atmosphere play an important role for the Earth's carbon cycle and thus should be considered in studies of global carbon cycling and climate. Simple approaches are a useful first step in this direction but may not be applicable for certain climatic conditions. To improve the ability of the reduced-complexity Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) Earth system model DCESS to address cold climate conditions, we reformulated the model's land biosphere module by extending it to include three dynamically varying vegetation zones as well as a permafrost component. The vegetation zones are formulated by emulating the behaviour of a complex land biosphere model. We show that with the new module, the size and timing of carbon exchanges between atmosphere and land are represented more realistically in cooling and warming experiments. In particular, we use the new module to address carbon cycling and climate change across the last glacial transition. Within the constraints provided by various proxy data records, we tune the DCESS model to a Last Glacial Maximum state and then conduct transient sensitivity experiments across the transition under the application of explicit transition functions for high-latitude ocean exchange, atmospheric dust, and the land ice sheet extent. We compare simulated time evolutions of global mean temperature, pCO2, atmospheric and oceanic carbon isotopes as well as ocean dissolved oxygen concentrations with proxy data records. In this way we estimate the importance of different processes across the transition with emphasis on the role of land biosphere variations and show that carbon outgassing from permafrost and uptake of carbon by the land biosphere broadly compensate for each other during the temperature rise of the early last deglaciation.

Estimates of future warming-induced methane emissions from hydrate offshore west Svalbard for a range of climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marín-Moreno, Héctor; Minshull, Timothy A.; Westbrook, Graham K.; Sinha, Bablu

2015-05-01

Methane hydrate close to the hydrate stability limit in seafloor sediment could represent an important source of methane to the oceans and atmosphere as the oceans warm. We investigate the extent to which patterns of past and future ocean-temperature fluctuations influence hydrate stability in a region offshore West Svalbard where active gas venting has been observed. We model the transient behavior of the gas hydrate stability zone at 400-500 m water depth (mwd) in response to past temperature changes inferred from historical measurements and proxy data and we model future changes predicted by seven climate models and two climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We show that over the past 2000 year, a combination of annual and decadal temperature fluctuations could have triggered multiple hydrate-sourced methane emissions from seabed shallower than 400 mwd during episodes when the multidecadal average temperature was similar to that over the last century (˜2.6°C). These temperature fluctuations can explain current methane emissions at 400 mwd, but decades to centuries of ocean warming are required to generate emissions in water deeper than 420 m. In the venting area, future methane emissions are relatively insensitive to the choice of climate model and RCP scenario until 2050 year, but are more sensitive to the RCP scenario after 2050 year. By 2100 CE, we estimate an ocean uptake of 97-1050 TgC from marine Arctic hydrate-sourced methane emissions, which is 0.06-0.67% of the ocean uptake from anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the period 1750-2011.

Modelling the risk of ecosystem disruption in Europe with a dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Hambuckers, A.; Warnant, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Thuiller, W.; François, L.

2012-04-01

What will be the European ecosystem responses to future climate? With unprecedented speed and extent, the projected climate change might lead to a disruption of terrestrial plants functioning in many regions. In the framework of the EcoChange project, transient projections over the 1901-2100 period have been performed with a process-based dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB DVM (Dury et al., 2011, iForest 4: 82, 99). The vegetation model was driven by the outputs of four climate models under the SRES A1B scenario: the ARPEGE/Climate model and three regional climate models (KNMI-RACMO2, DMI-HIRHAM5 and HC-HadRM3Q0 RCMs) from the European Union project ENSEMBLES. DVMs are appropriate tools to apprehend potential climate change impacts on ecosystems and identify threatened regions over Europe. CARAIB outputs (soil moisture, runoff, net primary productivity, fire, etc.) were used to characterise the ecosystem evolution. To assess consequences on biodiversity, the evolution of 100 natural common European species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 41 trees) has been studied year-to-year over the 1901-2100 period. Under the combined effects of projected changes particularly in temperature and precipitations, CARAIB simulates important reductions in the annual soil water content. The species productivities vary strongly from year to year reaching during the driest years values much lower than present-day average productivities. According to CARAIB, a lot of species might go beyond their water tolerance very frequently, particularly after 2050, due to more intense summer droughts. In the northern part of Europe and in the Alps, with reduced temperature variability and positive soil water anomalies, NPP variability tends to decrease. Regions with more severe droughts might also be affected by an increase of the frequency and intensity of wildfires. With this background, the species distributions might be strongly modified at the end of the century. 15% of tree species and 30% of herb and shrub species (respectively 30% and 60% if the CO2 fertilization effect on species is not taken into account) might experience a loss of 30% or more of their current distribution. Proportions of new species appearance were also studied. Southern Europe might suffer important species extinction while the more suitable climate conditions in northern Europe might lead to a gain in species diversity.

Operative air temperature data for different measures applied on a building envelope in warm climate.

PubMed

Baglivo, Cristina; Congedo, Paolo Maria

2018-04-01

Several technical combinations have been evaluated in order to design high energy performance buildings for the warm climate. The analysis has been developed in several steps, avoiding the use of HVAC systems. The methodological approach of this study is based on a sequential search technique and it is shown on the paper entitled "Envelope Design Optimization by Thermal Modeling of a Building in a Warm Climate" [1]. The Operative Air Temperature trends (TOP), for each combination, have been plotted through a dynamic simulation performed using the software TRNSYS 17 (a transient system simulation program, University of Wisconsin, Solar Energy Laboratory, USA, 2010). Starting from the simplest building configuration consisting of 9 rooms (equal-sized modules of 5 × 5 m 2 ), the different building components are sequentially evaluated until the envelope design is optimized. The aim of this study is to perform a step-by-step simulation, simplifying as much as possible the model without making additional variables that can modify their performances. Walls, slab-on-ground floor, roof, shading and windows are among the simulated building components. The results are shown for each combination and evaluated for Brindisi, a city in southern Italy having 1083 degrees day, belonging to the national climatic zone C. The data show the trends of the TOP for each measure applied in the case study for a total of 17 combinations divided into eight steps.

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Simulating vegetation dynamics in Chile from 21ka BP to present: Effects of climate change on vegetation functions and cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Christian; Liakka, Johan; Schmid, Manuel; Fuentes, Juan-Pablo; Ehlers, Todd A.; Hickler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Vegetation composition and establishment is strongly dependent on climate conditions but also a result of vegetation dynamics (competition for light, water and nutrients). In addition, vegetation exerts control over the development of landscapes as it mediates the climatic and hydrological forces shaping the terrain via hillslope and fluvial processes. At the same time, topography as well as soil texture and soil depth affect the microclimate, soil water storage and rooting space that is defining the environmental envelope for vegetation development. Within the EarthShape research program (www.earthshape.net) we evaluate these interactions by simulating the co-evolution of landscape and vegetation with a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (LandLab). LPJ-GUESS is a mechanistic model driven by daily or monthly weather data and explicitly simulates vegetation physiology, succession, competition and water and nutrient cycling. Here we present the results of first transient vegetation simulations from 21kyr BP to present-day using the TraCE-21ka climate dataset for four focus sites along the coastal cordillera of Chile that are exposed to a substantial meridional climate gradient (ranging from hyper-arid to humid-temperate conditions). We show that the warming occurring in the region from LGM to present, in addition to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, led to a shift in vegetation composition and surface cover. Future work will show how these changes resonate in the dynamics of hillslope and fluvial erosion and ultimately bi-directional feedback mechanisms of vegetation development and landscape evolution/ soil formation (see also companion presentation by Schmid et al., this session).

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2007-01-01

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Estimating ground-water inflow to lakes in central Florida using the isotope mass-balance approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sacks, Laura A.

2002-01-01

The isotope mass-balance approach was used to estimate ground-water inflow to 81 lakes in the central highlands and coastal lowlands of central Florida. The study area is characterized by a subtropical climate and numerous lakes in a mantled karst terrain. Ground-water inflow was computed using both steady-state and transient formulations of the isotope mass-balance equation. More detailed data were collected from two study lakes, including climatic, hydrologic, and isotopic (hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratio) data. For one of these lakes (Lake Starr), ground-water inflow was independently computed from a water-budget study. Climatic and isotopic data collected from the two lakes were similar even though they were in different physiographic settings about 60 miles apart. Isotopic data from all of the study lakes plotted on an evaporation trend line, which had a very similar slope to the theoretical slope computed for Lake Starr. These similarities suggest that data collected from the detailed study lakes can be extrapolated to the rest of the study area. Ground-water inflow computed using the isotope mass-balance approach ranged from 0 to more than 260 inches per year (or 0 to more than 80 percent of total inflows). Steady-state and transient estimates of ground-water inflow were very similar. Computed ground-water inflow was most sensitive to uncertainty in variables used to calculate the isotopic composition of lake evaporate (isotopic compositions of lake water and atmospheric moisture and climatic variables). Transient results were particularly sensitive to changes in the isotopic composition of lake water. Uncertainty in ground-water inflow results is considerably less for lakes with higher ground-water inflow than for lakes with lower ground-water inflow. Because of these uncertainties, the isotope mass-balance approach is better used to distinguish whether ground-water inflow quantities fall within certain ranges of values, rather than for precise quantification. The lakes fit into three categories based on their range of ground-water inflow: low (less than 25 percent of total inflows), medium (25-50 percent of inflows), and high (greater than 50 percent of inflows). The majority of lakes in the coastal lowlands had low ground-water inflow, whereas the majority of lakes in the central highlands had medium to high ground-water inflow. Multiple linear regression models were used to predict ground-water inflow to lakes. These models help identify basin characteristics that are important in controlling ground-water inflow to Florida lakes. Significant explanatory variables include: ratio of basin area to lake surface area, depth to the Upper Floridan aquifer, maximum lake depth, and fraction of wetlands in the basin. Models were improved when lake water-quality data (nitrate, sodium, and iron concentrations) were included, illustrating the link between ground-water geochemistry and lake chemistry. Regression models that considered lakes within specific geographic areas were generally poorer than models for the entire study area. Regression results illustrate how more simplified models based on basin and lake characteristics can be used to estimate ground-water inflow. Although the uncertainty in the amount of ground-water inflow to individual lakes is high, the isotope mass-balance approach was useful in comparing the range of ground-water inflow for numerous Florida lakes. Results were also helpful in understanding differences in the geographic distribution of ground-water inflow between the coastal lowlands and central highlands. In order to use the isotope mass-balance approach to estimate inflow for multiple lakes, it is essential that all the lakes are sampled during the same time period and that detailed isotopic, hydrologic, and climatic data are collected over this same period of time. Isotopic data for Florida lakes can change over time, both seasonally and interannually, primarily because of differ

Keno-21: Fundamental Issues in the Design of Geophysical Simulation Experiments and Resource Allocation in Climate Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2001-05-01

Many sources of uncertainty come into play when modelling geophysical systems by simulation. These include uncertainty in the initial condition, uncertainty in model parameter values (and the parameterisations themselves) and error in the model class from which the model(s) was selected. In recent decades, climate simulations have focused resources on reducing the last of these by including more and more details into the model. One can question when this ``kitchen sink'' approach should be complimented with realistic estimates of the impact from other uncertainties noted above. Indeed while the impact of model error can never be fully quantified, as all simulation experiments are interpreted a the rosy scenario which assumes a priori that nothing crucial is missing, the impact of other uncertainties can be quantified at only the cost of computational power; as illustrated, for example, in ensemble climate modelling experiments like Casino-21. This talk illustrates the interplay uncertainties in the context of a trivial nonlinear system and an ensemble of models. The simple systems considered in this small scale experiment, Keno-21, are meant to illustrate issues of experimental design; they are not intended to provide true climate simulations. The use of simulation models with huge numbers of parameters given limited data is usually justified by an appeal to the Laws of Physics: the number of free degrees-of-freedom are many fewer than the number of variables; both variables, parameterisations, and parameter values are constrained by ``the physics" and the resulting simulation yields a realistic reproduction of the entire planet's climate system to within reasonable bounds. But what bounds? exactly? In a single model run under transient forcing scenario, there are good statistical grounds for considering only large space and time averages; most of these reasons vanish if an ensemble of runs are made. Ensemble runs can quantify the (in)ability of a model to provide insight on regional changes: if a model cannot capture regional variations in the data on which the model was constructed (that is, in-sample) claims that out-of-sample predictions of those same regional averages should be used in policy making are vacuous. While motivated by climate modelling and illustrated on a trivial nonlinear system, these issues have implications across the range of geophysical modelling. These include implications for appropriate resource allocation, on the making of science policy, and on the public understanding of science and the role of uncertainty in decision making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J.; Rugh, John; Tomerlin, Jeff

Increased market penetration of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming a number of hurdles, including limited vehicle range and the elevated cost in comparison to conventional vehicles. Climate control loads have a significant impact on range, cutting it by over 50% in both cooling and heating conditions. To minimize the impact of climate control on EDV range, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has partnered with Hyundai America and key industry partners to quantify the performance of thermal load reduction technologies on a Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Technologies that impact vehicle cabin heating in cold weather conditions and cabinmore » cooling in warm weather conditions were evaluated. Tests included thermal transient and steady-state periods for all technologies, including the development of a new test methodology to evaluate the performance of occupant thermal conditioning. Heated surfaces demonstrated significant reductions in energy use from steady-state heating, including a 29%-59% reduction from heated surfaces. Solar control glass packages demonstrated significant reductions in energy use for both transient and steady-state cooling, with up to a 42% reduction in transient and 12.8% reduction in steady-state energy use for the packages evaluated. Technologies that demonstrated significant climate control load reduction were selected for incorporation into a complete thermal load reduction package. The complete package is set to be evaluated in the second phase of the ongoing project.« less

From transient to steady-state response of ecosystems to atmospheric CO2-enrichment and global climate change: conceptual challenges and need for an integrated approach

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad

2006-01-01

Evidence continues to accumulate that humans are significantly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in unprecedented changes in the global climate system. Experimental manipulations of terrestrial ecosystems and their components have greatly increased our understanding of short-term responses to these global perturbations and have...

Low order climate models as a tool for cross-disciplinary collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, R.; Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Schlosser, P.

2014-12-01

Human impacts on climate are pervasive and significant and project future states cannot be projected without taking human influence into account. We recently helped convene a meeting of climatologists, policy analysts, lawyers and social scientists to discuss the dramatic loss in Arctic summer sea ice. A dialogue emerged around distinct time scales in the integrated human/natural climate system. Climate scientists tended to discuss engineering solutions as though they could be implemented immediately, whereas lags of 2 or more decades were estimated by social scientists for societal shifts and similar lags were cited for deployment by the engineers. Social scientists tended to project new climate states virtually overnight, while climatologists described time scales of decades to centuries for the system to respond to changes in forcing functions. For the conversation to develop, the group had to come to grips with an increasingly complex set of transient effect time scales and lags between decisions, changes in forcing, and system outputs. We use several low-order dynamical system models to explore mismatched timescales, ranges of lags, and uncertainty in cost estimates on climate outcomes, focusing on Arctic-specific issues. In addition to lessons regarding what is/isn't feasible from a policy and engineering perspective, these models provide a useful tool to concretize cross-disciplinary thinking. They are fast and easy to iterate through a large region of the problem space, while including surprising complexity in their evolution. Thus they are appropriate for investigating the implications of policy in an efficient, but not unrealistic physical setting. (Earth System Models, by contrast, can be too resource- and time-intensive for iteratively testing "what if" scenarios in cross-disciplinary collaborations.) Our runs indicate, for example, that the combined social, engineering and climate physics lags make it extremely unlikely that an ice-free summer ecology in the Arctic can be avoided. Further, if prospective remediation strategies are successful, a return to perennial ice conditions between one and two centuries from now is entirely likely, with interesting and large impacts on Northern economies.

Groundwater vulnerability to climate variability: modelling experience and field observations in the lower Magra Valley (Liguria, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menichini, Matia; Doveri, Marco; El Mansoury, Bouabid; El Mezouary, Lhoussaine; Lelli, Matteo; Raco, Brunella; Scozzari, Andrea; Soldovieri, Francesco

2016-04-01

The aquifer of the Lower Magra Valley (SE Liguria, Italy) extends in a flat plain, where two main rivers (Magra and Vara) flow. These rivers are characterized by a wide variation of water level and water chemical composition (TDS, Cl and SO4) due to the combination of rainfall regime and the presence of thermal springs in the inner part of the catchment area. Groundwater flow is apparently controlled by stream water infiltration, which affects both water levels and water quality. In particular, the wide range of variation of some particular chemical species in the stream water influences the groundwater chemistry on a seasonal basis. In the area of interest, there is an important well-field, which supplies most of the drinking water to the nearby city of La Spezia. In this context, the groundwater system is exposed to a high degree of vulnerability, both in terms of quality and quantity. This study is aimed to develop a predictive flow and transport model in order to assess the vulnerability s.l. of the Magra Valley aquifer system and to evaluate its behaviour in awaited climate scenarios. A flow and transport model was developed by using MODFLOW and MT3DMS codes, and it's been calibrated in both steady state and transient conditions. The model confirmed the importance of the Magra river in the water balance and chemical composition of the extracted groundwater. In addition, a data-driven modelling approach was applied in order to determine boundary conditions (e.g. rivers and constant head or general head boundaries) of the physical model under hypothetic future climate scenarios. For this purpose, fully synthetic datasets have been generated as a training set of the data-driven scheme, with input variables inspired by selected climate models and input/output relationships estimated by past observations. An experimental run of the flow-transport model for 30 years ahead was performed, based on such hypothetic scenarios. This approach highlighted how the groundwater flow of the studied aquifer is highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate conditions.

Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2015-04-01

Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different components: tides, short time atmospheric process influence (1-30 days), seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Every sea level component is statistically compared with data from local tide gauges.

Paleobotany and Global Change: Important Lessons for Species to Biomes from Vegetation Responses to Past Global Change.

PubMed

McElwain, Jennifer C

2018-04-29

Human carbon use during the next century will lead to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO 2 ) that have been unprecedented for the past 50-100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO 2 estimates. The paleobotanical record of plants offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth's climatic future. Past global warming events have resulted in transient poleward migration at rates that are equivalent to the lowest climate velocities required for current taxa to keep pace with climate change. Paleobiome reconstructions suggest that the current tundra biome is the biome most threatened by global warming. The common occurrence of paleoforests at high polar latitudes when pCO 2 was above 500 ppm suggests that the advance of woody shrub and tree taxa into tundra environments may be inevitable. Fossil pollen studies demonstrate the resilience of wet tropical forests to global change up to 700 ppm CO 2 , contrary to modeled predictions of the future. The paleobotanical record also demonstrates a high capacity for functional trait evolution as an additional strategy to migration and maintenance of a species' climate envelope in response to global change.

The Hydrological Evolution of Mars as Recorded at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews-Hanna, J. C.; Horvath, D. G.

2017-12-01

The sedimentary deposits making up the Aeolis Mons sedimentary mound within Gale Crater preserve a record of the evolving hydrology and climate of Mars during the Late Noachian and Hesperian epochs. Aqueous sedimentary deposits including mudstones, deltaic deposits, and sulfate-cemented sediments indicate the past presence of liquid water on the surface. However, these observations alone do not strictly constrain the nature of the hydrology and climate at the time of deposition. We use models of the subsurface and surface hydrology to shed light on the conditions required to reproduce the observed deposits. Changes in the nature and composition of the deposits reflect changes in the balance between the surface and subsurface components of the hydrological cycle, driven by climate changes. Mudstones observed by the MSL rover at the base of the crater reflect lacustrine deposition under semi-arid conditions, with substantial fluid supply from both the surface (overland flow and direct precipitation) and subsurface. A transition at higher stratigraphic levels to sulfate-cemented sandstones required a change to a more arid climate, with the hydrology dominated by long-distance subsurface transport. Near the top of the mound, unaltered deposits indicate deposition under dry conditions, though this transition coincides with the natural limit on the rise of the water table imposed by the surrounding topography and does not require a change in climate. Erosion of the crater-filling sedimentary deposits to their present mound shape required a dramatic drop in the water table under hyper-arid conditions. Evidence for later lake stands in the Hesperian indicates transient returns to semi-arid conditions similar to those that prevailed during the Late Noachian. By coupling surface and orbital observations with hydrological modeling, we are able to make more specific constraints on the evolving climate and aridity of early Mars.

Consistency and Main Differences Between European Regional Climate Downscaling Intercomparison Results; From PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES to CORDEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, J. H.; Larsen, M. A. D.; Christensen, O. B.; Drews, M.

2017-12-01

For more than 20 years, coordinated efforts to apply regional climate models to downscale GCM simulations for Europe have been pursued by an ever increasing group of scientists. This endeavor showed its first results during EU framework supported projects such as RACCS and MERCURE. Here, the foundation for today's advanced worldwide CORDEX approach was laid out by a core of six research teams, who conducted some of the first coordinated RCM simulations with the aim to assess regional climate change for Europe. However, it was realized at this stage that model bias in GCMs as well as RCMs made this task very challenging. As an immediate outcome, the idea was conceived to make an even more coordinated effort by constructing a well-defined and structured set of common simulations; this lead to the PRUDENCE project (2001-2004). Additional coordinated efforts involving ever increasing numbers of GCMs and RCMs followed in ENSEMBLES (2004-2009) and the ongoing Euro-CORDEX (officially commenced 2011) efforts. Along with the overall coordination, simulations have increased their standard resolution from 50km (PRUDENCE) to about 12km (Euro-CORDEX) and from time slice simulations (PRUDENCE) to transient experiments (ENSEMBLES and CORDEX); from one driving model and emission scenario (PRUDENCE) to several (Euro-CORDEX). So far, this wealth of simulations have been used to assess the potential impacts of future climate change in Europe providing a baseline change as defined by a multi-model mean change with associated uncertainties calculated from model spread in the ensemble. But how has the overall picture of state-of-the-art regional climate change projections changed over this period of almost two decades? Here we compare across scenarios, model resolutions and model vintage the results from PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and Euro-CORDEX. By appropriate scaling we identify robust findings about the projected future of European climate expressed by temperature and precipitation changes that confirm the basic findings of PRUDENCE. For parameters such as snow cover and soil moisture availability we also identify major new results, which illustrate that model improvements and higher resolution offer new, physically grounded, robust information that could not have been identified twenty years ago with the approach taken at that time

Terrestrial N Cycling And C Storage: Some Insights From A Process-based Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.

2008-12-01

We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation, and soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. O-CN is run for three free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge, Aspen), and reproduces observed magnitudes of changes in net primary productivity, foliage area and foliage N content. Several alternative hypotheses concerning the control of N on vegetation growth and decomposition, including effects of diluting foliage N concentrations, down-regulation of photosynthesis and respiration, acclimation of C allocation patterns and biological N fixation, are tested with respect to their effect on long- term C sequestration estimate. Differences in initial N availability, small transient changes in N inputs and the assumed plasticity of C:N stoichiometry can lead to substantial differences in the simulated long-term changes in productivity and C sequestration. We discuss the capacity of observations obtained at FACE sites to evaluate these alternative hypotheses, and investigate implications of a transient versus instantaneous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide for the magnitude of the simulated limiting effect of N on C cycling. Finally, we re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric CO2, N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century.

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

Climate in the absence of ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

The energy transported by the oceans to mid- and high latitudes is small compared to the atmosphere, yet exerts an outsized influence on climate. A key reason is the strong interaction between ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice extent. I quantify the absolute climatic impact of OHT using the state-of-the-art CESM simulations by comparing a realistic control climate against a slab ocean simulation in which OHT is disabled. The absence of OHT leads to a massive expansion of sea ice into the subtropics in both hemispheres, and a 24 K global cooling. Analysis of the transient simulation after setting the OHT to zero reveals a global cooling process fueled by a runaway sea ice albedo feedback. This process is eventually self-limiting in the cold climate due to a combination of subtropical cloud feedbacks and surface wind effects that are both connected to a massive spin-up of the atmospheric Hadley circulation. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the simulated climate is far more sensitive to small changes in ice surface albedo in the absence of OHT. I conclude that the oceans are responsible for an enormous global warming by mitigating an otherwise very potent sea ice albedo feedback, but that the magnitude of this effect is rather uncertain. These simulations provide a graphic illustration of how the intimate coupling between sea ice and ocean circulation governs the present-day climate, and by extension, highlight the importance of modeling ocean - sea ice interaction with high fidelity.

Open access to Water Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation: proof-of-concept for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat

2017-04-01

Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to indicate confidence in the estimates. The SWICCA demonstrator also includes user guidance, information sheets, tutorials, and links to other relevant websites. The aim of this service is to provide research data and guidance for climate impact assessments in the water sector. The main target group is consulting engineers (so called Purveyors) working with climate change adaptation in the water sector. By using indicators, climate impact assessments can be done without having to run a full production chain from raw climate model results - instead the indicators can be included in the local workflow with local methods applied, to facilitate decision-making and strategies to meet the future. Working with real users will ensure that useful data is inserted into the C3S Climate Data Store (CDS).

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

PubMed Central

Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-01-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

PubMed

Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-13

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

The response of European and Asian climate to global and regional aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Laura; Dunstone, Nick; Highwood, Eleanor; Bollasina, Massimo; Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan

2017-04-01

Asia has the world's highest anthropogenic aerosol loading and has experienced a dramatic increase in emissions since the 1950s, which has continued in the 21st century, in stark contrast with European (and North American) emissions which started to decrease in the 1970s. We use a set of transient coupled model experiments (HadGEM2-GC2) to explore the regional climate effects of anthropogenic aerosol changes since the 1980s, with a focus on the European and Asian responses. Comparing simulations with globally varying aerosol emissions to an equivalent set with Asian emissions fixed at their 1971-1980 mean over Asia, we identify the contribution of Asian emissions to the total impact. Identifying thermodynamic and dynamic responses to global and regional aerosol changes, we diagnose atmospheric teleconnections and their interactions with local processes, and the mechanisms by which aerosol affects both European and Asian climate. It is found that Asian aerosols led to substantial changes in Asian climate, weakening the summer monsoon, which is a key driver of the observed precipitation changes there in recent decades. Asian emissions are also able to induce planetary-scale teleconnection patterns in both winter and summer. The impact of the regional diabatic heating anomaly propagates remotely by exciting northern hemisphere wave-trains which, enhanced by regional feedbacks, cause changes in near-surface climate over Europe. To examine the robustness of the mechanisms we identify in HadGEM2, we analyse similar sets of experiments from NorESM1-M and GFDL-CM3: models with very different climatologies and representations of aerosol processes.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections.

PubMed

Bardeen, Charles G; Garcia, Rolando R; Toon, Owen B; Conley, Andrew J

2017-09-05

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth's surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, Charles G.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Toon, Owen B.; Conley, Andrew J.

2017-09-01

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

The suitability of a simplified isotope-balance approach to quantify transient groundwater-lake interactions over a decade with climatic extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sacks, Laura A.; Lee, Terrie M.; Swancar, Amy

2013-01-01

Groundwater inflow to a subtropical seepage lake was estimated using a transient isotope-balance approach for a decade (2001–2011) with wet and dry climatic extremes. Lake water δ18O ranged from +0.80 to +3.48 ‰, reflecting the 4 m range in stage. The transient δ18O analysis discerned large differences in semiannual groundwater inflow, and the overall patterns of low and high groundwater inflow were consistent with an independent water budget. Despite simplifying assumptions that the isotopic composition of precipitation (δP), groundwater inflow, and atmospheric moisture (δA) were constant, groundwater inflow was within the water-budget error for 12 of the 19 semiannual calculation periods. The magnitude of inflow was over or under predicted during periods of climatic extreme. During periods of high net precipitation from tropical cyclones and El Niño conditions, δP values were considerably more depleted in 18O than assumed. During an extreme dry period, δA values were likely more enriched in 18O than assumed due to the influence of local lake evaporate. Isotope balance results were most sensitive to uncertainties in relative humidity, evaporation, and δ18O of lake water, which can limit precise quantification of groundwater inflow. Nonetheless, the consistency between isotope-balance and water-budget results indicates that this is a viable approach for lakes in similar settings, allowing the magnitude of groundwater inflow to be estimated over less-than-annual time periods. Because lake-water δ18O is a good indicator of climatic conditions, these data could be useful in ground-truthing paleoclimatic reconstructions using isotopic data from lake cores in similar settings.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

PubMed Central

Garcia, Rolando R.; Toon, Owen B.; Conley, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition. PMID:28827324

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2010-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the climate community. An improved understanding of the nature of decadal variability and its predictability has important implications for efforts to assess the impacts of global change in the coming decades. In fact, the GMAO has taken on the challenge of carrying out experimental decadal predictions in support of the IPCC AR5 effort.

Consequences of Changes in Vegetation and Snow Cover for Climate Feedbacks in Alaska and Northwest Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; Bennett, A.; Genet, H.; Lindgren, M.; Kurkowski, T. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T.

2016-12-01

A continuing challenge in global change studies is to determine how land surface changes may impact atmospheric heating. Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90-year period from 2010- 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We consider a more comprehensive suite of possible feedbacks to climate due to shifts in vegetation than previous studies, including both boreal and tundra fire, an advance of treeline, reduction in forest cover due to drought, and increases in the distribution of shrub tundra. However, changes in snow cover still provided the dominant positive land surface feedback to atmospheric heating. This positive feedback was partially moderated by an increase in area burned in spruce forests and shrub tundra. Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the vulnerability of this region to changes in climate.

Bjerknes Compensation in Meridional Heat Transport under Freshwater Forcing and the Role of Climate Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Qin

2017-04-01

Using a coupled Earth climate model, freshwater experiments are performed to study the Bjerknes compensation (BJC) between meridional atmosphere heat transport (AHT) and meridional ocean heat transport (OHT). Freshwater hosing in the North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thus reduces the northward OHT in the Atlantic significantly, leading to a cooling (warming) in surface layer in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. This results in an enhanced Hadley Cell and northward AHT. Meanwhile, the OHT in the Indo-Pacific is increased in response to the Hadley Cell change, partially offsetting the reduced OHT in the Atlantic. Two compensations occur here: compensation between the AHT and the Atlantic OHT, and that between the Indo-Pacific OHT and the Atlantic OHT. The AHT change compensates the OHT change very well in the extratropics, while the former overcompensates the latter in the tropics due to the Indo-Pacific change. The BJC can be understood from the viewpoint of large-scale circulation change. However, the intrinsic mechanism of BJC is related to the climate feedback of Earth system. Our coupled model experiments confirm that the occurrence of BJC is an intrinsic requirement of local energy balance, and local climate feedback determines the extent of BJC, consistent with previous theoretical results. Even during the transient period of climate change in the model, the BJC is well established when the ocean heat storage is slowly varying and its change is weaker than the net heat flux changes at the ocean surface and the top of the atmosphere. The BJC can be deduced from the local climate feedback. Under the freshwater forcing, the overcompensation in the tropics (undercompensation in the extratropics) is mainly caused by the positive longwave feedback related to cloud (negative longwave feedback related to surface temperature change). Different dominant feedbacks determine different BJC scenarios in different regions, which are in essence constrained by local energy balance.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

2017-04-01

The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change. [The authors acknowledge funding for the project from the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection].

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Euskirchen, E. S.; Bennett, A. P.; Breen, A. L.; Genet, H.; Lindgren, M. A.; Kurkowski, T. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, T. S.

2016-10-01

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m-2 decade-1 regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m-2 decade-1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (-0.2 to -0.3 W m-2 decade-1). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m-2 decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m-2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Calov, R.; Ganopolski, A.

2011-12-01

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (PPT, ca. 3.3-2.4 Ma BP) marks a shift in the Earth's climate and is believed to coincide with the inception of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. This transition is not only characterized by a gradual reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration, paleo records also show a strengthening in the amplitude of δ18O data and intensified ice rafted debris deposition in the North Atlantic. Previous modeling studies have demonstrated that the drop in atmospheric CO2 plays an important role in the glaciation of the NH ice sheets, and more specifically, it is considered to be the primary cause of the glaciation of Greenland. Here we apply a novel approach to produce transient simulations of the entire PPT, in order to study the glaciation of Greenland and the NH ice sheets and additionally, to investigate which conditions are necessary for full-scale glaciation. The fully-coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to explore the effects of a suite of orbital and CO2 forcing scenarios on total NH glaciation. CLIMBER-2 includes low-resolution sub-models of the atmosphere, vegetation, ocean and ice sheets - the latter is designed to simulate the big NH ice sheets with a rather low resolution (and high computational efficiency). As a refinement, the results of the global simulations are then used to force regional simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) using the higher resolution (20 km) regional climate-ice sheet model, REMBO-SICOPOLIS. We present results of transient simulations driven by orbital forcing and several CO2 reduction scenarios that are consistent with best estimates from data for this time period. We discuss the growth and persistence of the NH ice sheets in terms of the forcing and feedbacks involved. Additionally, we present a set of simulations with the growth of the NH ice sheets disabled, in order to quantify the effect the large ice sheets have on global and regional temperature anomalies. By simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in our high resolution coupled global-regional approach, we identify with greater precision, the conditions neccesary for inception of the GIS and link these to global climatic changes.

Life cycles of transient planetary waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nathan, Terrence

1993-01-01

In recent years there has been an increasing effort devoted to understanding the physical and dynamical processes that govern the global-scale circulation of the atmosphere. This effort has been motivated, in part, from: (1) a wealth of new satellite data; (2) an urgent need to assess the potential impact of chlorofluorocarbons on our climate; (3) an inadequate understanding of the interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere and the role that such interactions play in short and long-term climate variability; and (4) the realization that addressing changes in our global climate requires understanding the interactions among various components of the earth system. The research currently being carried out represents an effort to address some of these issues by carrying out studies that combine radiation, ozone, seasonal thermal forcing and dynamics. Satellite and ground-based data that is already available is being used to construct basic states for our analytical and numerical models. Significant accomplishments from 1991-1992 are presented and include the following: ozone-dynamics interaction; (2) periodic local forcing and low frequency variability; and (3) steady forcing and low frequency variability.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A; Mix, Alan C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard

2012-04-04

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

PubMed Central

Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Erbrecht, Tim; Heyder, Ursula; Cramer, Wolfgang

2006-01-01

Background Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. Results The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century. Conclusion Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100. PMID:16930462

Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John

2017-09-01

We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206-1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th-21st century trends.

The National Danish Water Resources Model - using an integrated groundwater - surface water model for decision support and WFD implementation in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Hinsby, Klaus; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Troldborg, Lars

2014-05-01

Integrated and sustainable water resources management and development of river basin management plans according to the Water Framework Directive is getting increasingly complex especially when taking projected climate change into account. Furthermore, uncertainty in future developments and incomplete knowledge of the physical system introduces a high degree of uncertainty in the decision making process. Knowledge based decision making is therefore vital for formulation of robust management plans and to allow assessment of the inherent uncertainties. The Department of Hydrology at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland started in 1996 to develop a mechanistically, transient and spatially distributed groundwater-surface water model - the DK-model - for the assessment of groundwater quantitative status accounting for interactions with surface water and anthropogenic changes, such as extraction strategies and land use, as well as climate change. The model has been subject to continuous update building on hydrogeological knowledge established by the regional water authorities and other national research institutes. With the on-going improvement of the DK-model it is now increasingly applied both by research projects and for decision support e.g. in implementation of the Water Framework Directive or to support other decisions related to protection of water resources (quantitative and chemical status), ecosystems and the built environment. At present, the DK-model constitutes the backbone of a strategic modelling project funded by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, with the aim of developing a modelling complex that will provide the foundation of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Since 2003 the DK-model has been used in more than 25 scientific papers and even more public reports. In the poster and the related review paper we describe the most important applications in both science and policy, where the DK-model has been used either directly or as an important starting point for assessing the impact of climate change on the quantity and quality of groundwater and surface water e.g. in relation to changes in water tables, runoff, nutrient loadings, flooding risks (coastal and hinterland), irrigation demands, sea level rise and seawater intrusion or to assess where geology or climate change create the largest uncertainty for evaluation of the development of water resources quantity and quality.

Can Earth System Model Provide Reasonable Natural Runoff Estimates to Support Water Management Studies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Shi, X.; Kumar, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

With the concern of changing hydrologic regime, there is a crucial need to better understand how water availability may change and influence water management decisions in the projected future climate conditions. Despite that surface hydrology has long been simulated by land model within the Earth System modeling (ESM) framework, given the coarser horizontal resolution and lack of engineering-level calibration, raw runoff from ESM is generally discarded by water resource managers when conducting hydro-climate impact assessments. To identify a likely path to improve the credibility of ESM-simulated natural runoff, we conducted regional model simulation using the land component (ALM) of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) version 1 focusing on the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two very different forcing data sets, including (1) the conventional 0.5° CRUNCEP (v5, 1901-2013) and (2) the 1-km Daymet (v3, 1980-2013) aggregated to 0.5°, were used to conduct 20th century transient simulation with satellite phenology. Additional meteorologic and hydrologic observations, including PRISM precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff, were used for model evaluation. For various CONUS hydrologic regions (such as Pacific Northwest), we found that Daymet can significantly improve the reasonableness of simulated ALM runoff even without intensive calibration. The large dry bias of CRUNCEP precipitation (evaluated by PRISM) in multiple CONUS hydrologic regions is believed to be the main reason causing runoff underestimation. The results suggest that when driving with skillful precipitation estimates, ESM has the ability to produce reasonable natural runoff estimates to support further water management studies. Nevertheless, model calibration will be required for regions (such as Upper Colorado) where ill performance is showed for multiple different forcings.

Feeling bogged down about climate change mitigation? Insights from a new high resolution peatland-bog model validated at two Dutch monitoring sites.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lippmann, Tanya; van Huissteden, Ko; Hendriks, Dimmie

2017-04-01

Increasing the global carbon sink is one of two options to mitigate CO2 and CH4 increases in the atmosphere (the other is emissions reductions at the source). Peatlands release carbon to the atmosphere when disturbed by natural or human causes and absorb carbon when vegetation and soil organic matter accumulate after rewetting or natural revegetation. However, rewetting of drained peatlands is frequently not considered as a climate mitigation strategy due to the enhanced methane emissions that accompany newly formed anaerobic peatland environments. We hypothesise that at most sites, this trend will be temporal but long-term, lasting for tens of years post re-wetting before stabilisation takes place. This study investigates the ability of rewetted peatland sites to act as either a source or sink for atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide under climate change. The hydrology of a peatland is fundamental to its functioning. Therefore, the use of a full water balance table has the potential to simulate greenhouse gas fluxes to a greater degree of certainty. MODFLOW is the internationally most widely used ground and surface water model and is freely available to the scientific community. This is the first time that a gridded peatland process based model has been constructed at a spatial resolution as high as 25m x 25m. This new high-resolution model allows for investigation into the complex biophysical and hydrological factors that are necessary to reliably estimate atmospheric greenhouse gas fluxes in a peatland ecosystem. We assess the model's skill against observations collected at two monitoring sites of differing soil properties and vegetation in the Netherlands. These results discuss site-specific suitability of peatland regeneration, useful for climate change mitigation activities. Aside from the insight into transient atmosphere-peatland carbon fluxes, this work is a stepping stone towards more robust model coupling and greater spatial coverage.

Observation-based Estimate of Climate Sensitivity with a Scaling Climate Response Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

To properly adress the anthropogenic impacts upon the earth system, an estimate of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is essential. Observation-based estimates of climate sensitivity are often limited by their ability to take into account the slower response of the climate system imparted mainly by the large thermal inertia of oceans, they are nevertheless essential to provide an alternative to estimates from global circulation models and increase our confidence in estimates of climate sensitivity by the multiplicity of approaches. It is straightforward to calculate the Effective Climate Sensitivity(EffCS) as the ratio of temperature change to the change in radiative forcing; the result is almost identical to the Transient Climate Response(TCR), but it underestimates the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS). A study of global mean temperature is thus presented assuming a Scaling Climate Response Function to deterministic radiative forcing. This general form is justified as there exists a scaling symmetry respected by the dynamics, and boundary conditions, over a wide range of scales and it allows for long-range dependencies while retaining only 3 parameter which are estimated empirically. The range of memory is modulated by the scaling exponent H. We can calculate, analytically, a one-to-one relation between the scaling exponent H and the ratio of EffCS to TCR and EffCS to ECS. The scaling exponent of the power law is estimated by a regression of temperature as a function of forcing. We consider for the analysis 4 different datasets of historical global mean temperature and 100 scenario runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 distributed among the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios. We find that the error function for the estimate on historical temperature is very wide and thus, many scaling exponent can be used without meaningful changes in the fit residuals of historical temperatures; their response in the year 2100 on the other hand, is very broad, especially for a low-emission scenario such as RCP 2.6. CMIP5 scenario runs thus allow for a narrower estimate of H which can then be used to estimate the ECS and TCR from the EffCS estimated from the historical data.

Design and Implementation of a Thermal Load Reduction System in a Hyundai PHEV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J; Rugh, John P

Increased market penetration of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming a number of hurdles including limited vehicle range and the elevated cost of EDVs as compared to conventional vehicles. Climate control loads have a significant impact on range, cutting it by over 50% in both cooling and heating conditions. In order to minimize the impact of climate control on EDV range, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has partnered with Hyundai America and key industry partners to quantify the performance of thermal load reduction technologies on a Hyundai Sonata PHEV. Technologies that impact vehicle cabin heating in cold weather conditions andmore » cabin cooling in warm weather conditions were evaluated. Tests included thermal transient and steady-state periods for all technologies, including the development of a new test methodology to evaluate the performance of occupant thermal conditioning. Heated surfaces and increased insulation demonstrated significant reductions in energy use from steady-state heating, including a 29% - 59% reduction from heated surfaces. Solar control glass packages demonstrated significant reductions in energy use for both transient and steady-state cooling, with up to a 42% reduction in transient and 12.8% reduction in steady-state energy use for the packages evaluated. Technologies that demonstrated significant climate control load reduction were selected for incorporation into a complete thermal load reduction package. The complete package is set to be evaluated in the second phase of the ongoing project.« less

Changes in Moisture Flux Over the Tibetan Plateau During 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin

2015-05-01

Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. Improvement in simulating precipitation changes at high elevations contributes dominantly to the improved P-E changes. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regardingmore » the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.« less

A regional groundwater-flow model for sustainable groundwater-resource management in the south Asian megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Md Bayzidul; Firoz, A. B. M.; Foglia, Laura; Marandi, Andres; Khan, Abidur Rahman; Schüth, Christoph; Ribbe, Lars

2017-05-01

The water resources that supply most of the megacities in the world are under increased pressure because of land transformation, population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate-change impacts. Dhaka, in Bangladesh, is one of the largest of 22 growing megacities in the world, and it depends on mainly groundwater for all kinds of water needs. The regional groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2005 was used to simulate the interaction between aquifers and rivers in steady-state and transient conditions during the period 1981-2013, to assess the impact of development and climate change on the regional groundwater resources. Detailed hydro-stratigraphic units are described according to 150 lithology logs, and a three-dimensional model of the upper 400 m of the Greater Dhaka area was constructed. The results explain how the total abstraction (2.9 million m3/d) in the Dhaka megacity, which has caused regional cones of depression, is balanced by recharge and induced river leakage. The simulated outcome shows the general trend of groundwater flow in the sedimentary Holocene aquifers under a variety of hydrogeological conditions, which will assist in the future development of a rational and sustainable management approach.

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE PAGES

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.; ...

2016-08-23

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

Elucidating the role of vegetation in the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides: Insights from an extreme rainfall event in the Colorado Front Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, Luke; Rengers, Francis K.; Kean, Jason W.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.

2016-01-01

More than 1100 debris flows were mobilized from shallow landslides during a rainstorm from 9 to 13 September 2013 in the Colorado Front Range, with the vast majority initiating on sparsely vegetated, south facing terrain. To investigate the physical processes responsible for the observed aspect control, we made measurements of soil properties on a densely forested north facing hillslope and a grassland-dominated south facing hillslope in the Colorado Front Range and performed numerical modeling of transient changes in soil pore water pressure throughout the rainstorm. Using the numerical model, we quantitatively assessed interactions among vegetation, rainfall interception, subsurface hydrology, and slope stability. Results suggest that apparent cohesion supplied by roots was responsible for the observed connection between debris flow initiation and slope aspect. Results suggest that future climate-driven modifications to forest structure could substantially influence landslide hazards throughout the Front Range and similar water-limited environments where vegetation communities may be more susceptible to small variations in climate.

Impact of cloud timing on surface temperature and related hydroclimatic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, A. M.; Yin, J.

2015-12-01

Cloud feedbacks have long been identified as one of the largest source of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Differences in the spatial distribution of clouds and the related impact on surface temperature and climate dynamics have been recently emphasized in quasi-equilibrium General Circulation Models (GCM). However, much less attention has been paid to the temporal variation of cloud presence and thickness. Clouds in fact shade the solar radiation during the daytime, but also acts as greenhouse gas to reduce the emission of longwave radiation to the outer space anytime of the day. Thus it is logical to expect that even small differences in timing and thickness of clouds could result in very different predictions in GCMs. In this study, these two effects of cloud dynamics are analyzed by tracking the cloud impacts on longwave and shortwave radiation in a minimalist transient thermal balance model of the land surface. The marked changes in surface temperature due to alterations in the timing of onset of clouds demonstrate that capturing temporal variation of cloud at sub-daily scale should be a priority in cloud parameterization schemes in GCMs.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc. Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Dynamic modeling of human thermal comfort after the transition from an indoor to an outdoor hot environment.

PubMed

Katavoutas, George; Flocas, Helena A; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-02-01

Thermal comfort under non-steady-state conditions primarily deals with rapid environmental transients and significant alterations of the meteorological conditions, activity, or clothing pattern within the time scale of some minutes. In such cases, thermal history plays an important role in respect to time, and thus, a dynamic approach is appropriate. The present study aims to investigate the dynamic thermal adaptation process of a human individual, after his transition from a typical indoor climate to an outdoor hot environment. Three scenarios of thermal transients have been considered for a range of hot outdoor environmental conditions, employing the dynamic two-node IMEM model. The differences among them concern the radiation field, the activity level, and the body position. The temporal pattern of body temperatures as well as the range of skin wettedness and of water loss have been investigated and compared among the scenarios and the environmental conditions considered. The structure and the temporal course of human energy fluxes as well as the identification of the contribution of body temperatures to energy fluxes have also been studied and compared. In general, the simulation results indicate that the response of a person, coming from the same neutral indoor climate, varies depending on the scenario followed by the individual while being outdoors. The combination of radiation field (shade or not) with the kind of activity (sitting or walking) and the outdoor conditions differentiates significantly the thermal state of the human body. Therefore, 75% of the skin wettedness values do not exceed the thermal comfort limit at rest for a sitting individual under the shade. This percentage decreases dramatically, less than 25%, under direct solar radiation and exceeds 75% for a walking person under direct solar radiation.

Effects of Irrigation on Global Climate During the 20th Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puma, M. J.; Cook, B. I.

2010-01-01

Various studies have documented the effects of modern ]day irrigation on regional and global climate, but none, to date, have considered the time ]varying impact of steadily increasing irrigation rates on climate during the 20th century. We investigate the impacts of observed irrigation changes over this century with two ensemble simulations using an atmosphere general circulation model. Both ensembles are forced with transient climate forcings and observed sea surface temperatures from 1902 to 2000; one ensemble includes irrigation specified by a time ]varying data set of irrigation water withdrawals. Early in the century, irrigation is primarily localized over southern and eastern Asia, leading to significant cooling in boreal summer (June.August) over these regions. This cooling spreads and intensifies by century fs end, following the rapid expansion of irrigation over North America, Europe, and Asia. Irrigation also leads to boreal winter (December.February) warming over parts of North America and Asia in the latter part of the century, due to enhanced downward longwave fluxes from increased near ]surface humidity. Precipitation increases occur primarily downwind of the major irrigation areas, although precipitation in parts of India decreases due to a weaker summer monsoon. Irrigation begins to significantly reduce temperatures and temperature trends during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropics beginning around 1950; significant increases in precipitation occur in these same latitude bands. These trends reveal the varying importance of irrigation ]climate interactions and suggest that future climate studies should account for irrigation, especially in regions with unsustainable irrigation resources.

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Impacts on Stream Temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Qian; Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John

We apply an integrated hydrology-stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM-RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt-dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lowermore » reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub-basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change.« less

A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models.

PubMed

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

2011-09-01

Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that can arise even from simple models following ecological disturbances or perturbations. Recent interest in such transient dynamics has led to diverse methodologies for their quantification in density-independent, time-invariant population projection matrix (PPM) models, but the fragmented nature of this literature has stifled the widespread analysis of transients. We review the literature on transient analyses of linear PPM models and synthesise a coherent framework. We promote the use of standardised indices, and categorise indices according to their focus on either convergence times or transient population density, and on either transient bounds or case-specific transient dynamics. We use a large database of empirical PPM models to explore relationships between indices of transient dynamics. This analysis promotes the use of population inertia as a simple, versatile and informative predictor of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

2014-09-01

Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.

Joint inversion of 3-PG using eddy-covariance and inventory plot measurements in temperate-maritime conifer forests: Uncertainty in transient carbon-balance responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hember, R. A.; Kurz, W. A.; Coops, N. C.; Black, T. A.

2010-12-01

Temperate-maritime forests of coastal British Columbia store large amounts of carbon (C) in soil, detritus, and trees. To better understand the sensitivity of these C stocks to climate variability, simulations were conducted using a hybrid version of the model, Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG), combined with algorithms from the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector - version 3 (CBM-CFS3) to account for full ecosystem C dynamics. The model was optimized based on a combination of monthly CO2 and H2O flux measurements derived from three eddy-covariance systems and multi-annual stemwood growth (Gsw) and mortality (Msw) derived from 1300 permanent sample plots by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The calibrated model serves as an unbiased estimator of stemwood C with enhanced precision over that of strictly-empirical models, minimized reliance on local prescriptions, and the flexibility to study impacts of environmental change on regional C stocks. We report the contribution of each dataset in identifying key physiological parameters and the posterior uncertainty in predictions of net ecosystem production (NEP). The calibrated model was used to spin up pre-industrial C pools and estimate the sensitivity of regional net carbon balance to a gradient of temperature changes, λ=ΔC/ΔT, during three 62-year harvest rotations, spanning 1949-2135. Simulations suggest that regional net primary production, tree mortality, and heterotrophic respiration all began increasing, while NEP began decreasing in response to warming following the 1976 shift in northeast-Pacific climate. We quantified the uncertainty of λ and how it was mediated by initial dead C, tree mortality, precipitation change, and the time horizon in which it was calculated.

Unraveling the martian water cycle with high-resolution global climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pottier, Alizée; Forget, François; Montmessin, Franck; Navarro, Thomas; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Szantai, André; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste

2017-07-01

Global climate modeling of the Mars water cycle is usually performed at relatively coarse resolution (200 - 300km), which may not be sufficient to properly represent the impact of waves, fronts, topography effects on the detailed structure of clouds and surface ice deposits. Here, we present new numerical simulations of the annual water cycle performed at a resolution of 1° × 1° (∼ 60 km in latitude). The model includes the radiative effects of clouds, whose influence on the thermal structure and atmospheric dynamics is significant, thus we also examine simulations with inactive clouds to distinguish the direct impact of resolution on circulation and winds from the indirect impact of resolution via water ice clouds. To first order, we find that the high resolution does not dramatically change the behavior of the system, and that simulations performed at ∼ 200 km resolution capture well the behavior of the simulated water cycle and Mars climate. Nevertheless, a detailed comparison between high and low resolution simulations, with reference to observations, reveal several significant changes that impact our understanding of the water cycle active today on Mars. The key northern cap edge dynamics are affected by an increase in baroclinic wave strength, with a complication of northern summer dynamics. South polar frost deposition is modified, with a westward longitudinal shift, since southern dynamics are also influenced. Baroclinic wave mode transitions are observed. New transient phenomena appear, like spiral and streak clouds, already documented in the observations. Atmospheric circulation cells in the polar region exhibit a large variability and are fine structured, with slope winds. Most modeled phenomena affected by high resolution give a picture of a more turbulent planet, inducing further variability. This is challenging for long-period climate studies.

The Climate of Early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wordsworth, Robin D.

2016-06-01

The nature of the early martian climate is one of the major unanswered questions of planetary science. Key challenges remain, but a new wave of orbital and in situ observations and improvements in climate modeling have led to significant advances over the past decade. Multiple lines of geologic evidence now point to an episodically warm surface during the late Noachian and early Hesperian periods 3-4 Ga. The low solar flux received by Mars in its first billion years and inefficiency of plausible greenhouse gases such as CO2 mean that the steady-state early martian climate was likely cold. A denser CO2 atmosphere would have caused adiabatic cooling of the surface and hence migration of water ice to the higher-altitude equatorial and southern regions of the planet. Transient warming caused melting of snow and ice deposits and a temporarily active hydrological cycle, leading to erosion of the valley networks and other fluvial features. Precise details of the warming mechanisms remain unclear, but impacts, volcanism, and orbital forcing all likely played an important role. The lack of evidence for glaciation across much of Mars's ancient terrain suggests the late Noachian surface water inventory was not sufficient to sustain a northern ocean. Though mainly inhospitable on the surface, early Mars may nonetheless have presented significant opportunities for the development of microbial life.

Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010

DOE PAGES

Forbes, Whitney L.; Mao, Jiafu; Jin, Mingzhou; ...

2018-05-04

Runoff in the United States is changing, and this study finds that the measured change is dependent on the geographic region and varies seasonally. Specifically, observed annual total runoff had an insignificant increasing trend in the US between 1950 and 2010, but this insignificance was due to regional heterogeneity with both significant and insignificant increases in the eastern, northern, and southern US, and a greater significant decrease in the western US. Trends for seasonal mean runoff also differed across regions. By region, the season with the largest observed trend was autumn for the east (positive), spring for the north (positive),more » winter for the south (positive), winter for the west (negative), and autumn for the US as a whole (positive). Based on the detection and attribution analysis using gridded WaterWatch runoff observations along with semi-factorial land surface model simulations from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we found that while the roles of CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover were inconsistent regionally and seasonally, the effect of climatic variations was detected for all regions and seasons, and the change in runoff could be attributed to climate change in summer and autumn in the south and in autumn in the west. It was also found that the climate-only and historical transient simulations consistently underestimated the runoff trends, possibly due to precipitation bias in the MsTMIP driver or within the models themselves.« less

Satellite bulk tropospheric temperatures as a metric for climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christy, John R.; McNider, Richard T.

2017-11-01

We identify and remove the main natural perturbations (e.g. volcanic activity, ENSOs) from the global mean lower tropospheric temperatures ( T LT ) over January 1979 - June 2017 to estimate the underlying, potentially human-forced trend. The unaltered value is +0.155 K dec-1 while the adjusted trend is +0.096 K dec-1, related primarily to the removal of volcanic cooling in the early part of the record. This is essentially the same value we determined in 1994 (+0.09 K dec-1, Christy and McNider, 1994) using only 15 years of data. If the warming rate of +0.096 K dec-1 represents the net T LT response to increasing greenhouse radiative forcings, this implies that the T LT tropospheric transient climate response (Δ T LT at the time CO2 doubles) is +1.10 ± 0.26 K which is about half of the average of the IPCC AR5 climate models of 2.31 ± 0.20 K. Assuming that the net remaining unknown internal and external natural forcing over this period is near zero, the mismatch since 1979 between observations and CMIP-5 model values suggests that excessive sensitivity to enhanced radiative forcing in the models can be appreciable. The tropical region is mainly responsible for this discrepancy suggesting processes that are the likely sources of the extra sensitivity are (a) the parameterized hydrology of the deep atmosphere, (b) the parameterized heat-partitioning at the oceanatmosphere interface and/or (c) unknown natural variations.

Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forbes, Whitney L.; Mao, Jiafu; Jin, Mingzhou

Runoff in the United States is changing, and this study finds that the measured change is dependent on the geographic region and varies seasonally. Specifically, observed annual total runoff had an insignificant increasing trend in the US between 1950 and 2010, but this insignificance was due to regional heterogeneity with both significant and insignificant increases in the eastern, northern, and southern US, and a greater significant decrease in the western US. Trends for seasonal mean runoff also differed across regions. By region, the season with the largest observed trend was autumn for the east (positive), spring for the north (positive),more » winter for the south (positive), winter for the west (negative), and autumn for the US as a whole (positive). Based on the detection and attribution analysis using gridded WaterWatch runoff observations along with semi-factorial land surface model simulations from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we found that while the roles of CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover were inconsistent regionally and seasonally, the effect of climatic variations was detected for all regions and seasons, and the change in runoff could be attributed to climate change in summer and autumn in the south and in autumn in the west. It was also found that the climate-only and historical transient simulations consistently underestimated the runoff trends, possibly due to precipitation bias in the MsTMIP driver or within the models themselves.« less

What Do GDGT Thermometers Tell us About Environmental Changes During the Holocene in Central Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menot, G.; Garcin, Y.; Bard, E. G.; Deschamps, P.

2017-12-01

Africa has been recognized by the IPCC group as one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. Validation of models currently used for future climate projections relies in part on their ability to reproduce past climate variability. Especially the past abrupt climatic and environmental events that have punctuated the recent history of the African continent are of prime interest to model the transient and non-linear response of the African monsoon and vegetation to both external forcing and internal feedbacks. The role of temperature among other controls of the hydrological cycle has to be assessed. However, reliable temperature benchmark sequences on continents remain scare and not evenly distributed. The recent discovery of tetraethers as paleothermometer has raised a considerable interest as these lipid biomarkers fill a gap between "quantitative but discrete" and "qualitative but continuous" proxies on continents. Their broad application is however to date hampered by the few constrains on their origin as well as on their dynamics and fates related to pedogenic, transport and sedimentary processes. Previous studies on the lake Barombi (Cameroon) demonstrate the potential of newly retrieved lacustrine sequences to document hydrological changes associated with the African humid Period and vegetation changes related to the late Holocene `rainforest crisis' with an appropriate time resolution. Preliminary reconstructed temperature profile reveals a clear shift at the end of the African Humid Period. Prior any interpretation of a climate signal, a more complete characterization of the tetraether distributions is however needed together with a thorough comparison with other sedimentological proxies. Such an approach should allow identifying the processes that have altered the validity of the tetraether record as changes in soil erosion or lacustrine stratification.

Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, David A.; Helfrich, J. V. K.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

1998-01-01

The Amazon Basin contains almost one-half of the world's undisturbed tropical evergreen forest as well as large areas of tropical savanna. The forests account for about 10 per cent of the world's terrestrial primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems, and short-term field measurements suggest that these ecosystems are globally important carbon sinks. But tropical land ecosystems have experienced substantial interannual climate variability owing to frequent El Nino episodes in recent decades. Of particular importance to climate change policy is how such climate variations, coupled with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, affect terrestrial carbon storage. Previous model analyses have demonstrated the importance of temperature in controlling carbon storage. Here we use a transient process-based biogeochemical model of terrestrial ecosystems to investigate interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems in response to climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration during the period 1980 to 1994. In El Nino years, which bring hot, dry weather to much of the Amazon region, the ecosystems act as a source of carbon to the atmosphere (up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon in 1987 and 1992). In other years, these ecosystems act as a carbon sink (up to 0.7 Pg C in 1981 and 1993). These fluxes are large; they compare to a 0.3 Pg C per year source to the atmosphere associated with deforestation in the Amazon Basin in the early 1990s. Soil moisture, which is affected by both precipitation and temperature, and which affects both plant and soil processes, appears to be an important control on carbon storage.

Transient Atmospheric Circulation Changes in a Grand ensemble of Idealized CO2 Increase Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.; Kornblueh, L.

2017-12-01

The yearly evolution with increasing forcing of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is examined in a 68-member ensemble of 1pctCO2 scenario experiments performed with the MPI-ESM model. Each member of the experiment ensemble is integrated for 155 years, from initial conditions taken from a 2000-yr long pre-industrial control climate experiment. The 1pctCO2 scenario experiments are conducted following the protocol of including as external forcing only a CO2 concentration increase at 1%/year, till quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. MPI-ESM is the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (including coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and seaice). By averaging over the 68 members (ensemble mean), atmospheric variability is greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to investigate the sensitivity to the climate state of the atmospheric response to CO2 doubling. Indicators of global change show the expected monotonic evolution with increasing CO2 and a weak dependence of the thermodynamical response to CO2 doubling on the climate state. The surface climate response of the atmospheric circulation, diagnosed for instance by the pressure at sea level, and the eddy-driven jet response show instead a marked dependence to the climate state, for the Northern winter season. We find that as the CO2 concentration increases above doubling, Northern winter trends in some indicators of atmospheric circulation changes decrease or even reverse, posing the question on what are the causes of this nonlinear behavior. The investigation of the role of stationary waves, the meridional overturning circulation, the decrease in Arctic sea ice and the stratospheric vortex points to the latter as a plausible cause of such nonlinear response.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna

The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.

Effectiveness and Tradeoffs between Portfolios of Adaptation Strategies Addressing Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Van Lienden, B.; Das, T.; Munevar, A.; Young, C. A.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Huntington, J. L.

2013-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the major agricultural areas in the United States. The Central Valley Project (CVP) is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation to serve multiple purposes including generating approximately 4.3 million gigawatt hours of hydropower and providing, on average, 5 million acre-feet of water per year to irrigate approximately 3 million acres of land in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins, 600,000 acre-feet per year of water for urban users, and 800,000 acre-feet of annual supplies for environmental purposes. The development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies requires assessing multiple risks including potential climate changes as well as uncertainties in future socioeconomic conditions. In this study, a scenario-based analytical approach was employed by combining three potential 21st century socioeconomic futures with six representative climate and sea level change projections developed using a transient hybrid delta ensemble method from an archive of 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP3 global climate model simulations to form 18 future socioeconomic-climate scenarios. To better simulate the effects of climate changes on agricultural water demands, analyses of historical agricultural meteorological station records were employed to develop estimates of future changes in solar radiation and atmospheric humidity from the GCM simulated temperature and precipitation. Projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were computed directly by weighting SRES emissions scenarios included in each representative climate projection. These results were used as inputs to a calibrated crop water use, growth and yield model to simulate the effects of climate changes on the evapotranspiration and yields of major crops grown in the Central Valley. Existing hydrologic, reservoir operations, water quality, hydropower, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and both urban and agricultural economic models were integrated into a suite of decision support tools to assess the impacts of future socioeconomic-climate uncertainties on key performance metrics for the CVP, State Water Project and other Central Valley water management systems under current regulatory requirements. Four thematic portfolios consisting of regional and local adaptation strategies including changes in reservoir operations, increased water conservation, storage and conveyance were developed and simulated to evaluate their potential effectiveness in meeting delivery reliability, water quality, environmental, hydropower, GHG, urban and agricultural economic performance criteria. The results indicate that the portfolios exhibit a considerable range of effectiveness depending on the socioeconomic-climate scenario. For most criteria, the portfolios were more sensitive to climate projections than socioeconomic assumptions. However, the results demonstrate that important tradeoffs occur between portfolios depending on the performance criteria considered.

Comparison of Interglacial fire dynamics in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Daniau, Anne-Laure

2016-04-01

Responses of fire activity to a change in climate are still uncertain and biases exist by integrating this non-linear process into global modeling of the Earth system. Warming and regional drying can force fire activity in two opposite directions: an increase in fire in fuel supported ecosystems or a fire reduction in fuel-limited ecosystems. Therefore, climate variables alone can not be used to estimate the fire risk because vegetation variability is an important determinant of fire dynamics and responds itself to change in climate. Southern Africa (south of 20°S) paleofire history reconstruction obtained from the analysis of microcharcoal preserved in a deep-sea core located off Namibia reveals changes of fire activity on orbital timescales in the precession band. In particular, increase in fire is observed during glacial periods, and reduction of fire during interglacials such as the Eemian and the Holocene. The Holocene was characterized by even lower level of fire activity than Eemian. Those results suggest the alternance of grass-fueled fires during glacials driven by increase in moisture and the development of limited fueled ecosystems during interglacials characterized by dryness. Those results question the simulated increase in the fire risk probability projected for this region under a warming and drying climate obtained by Pechony and Schindell (2010). To explore the validity of the hypotheses we conducted a data-model comparison for both interglacials from 126.000 to 115.000 BP for the Eemian and from 8.000 to 2.000 BP for the Holocene. Data out of a transient, global modeling study with a Vegetation-Fire model of full complexity (JSBACH) is used, driven by a Climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER). Climate data like precipitation and temperature as well as vegetation data like soil moisture, productivity (NPP) on plant functional type level are used to explain trends in fire activity. The comparison of trends in fire activity during the Eemian (126.000 to 120.000 BP) and the Holocene (8.000 to 200 BP) shows an increase in fire data and in simulated fire. Lower level of fire during the Holocene than Eemian can be explained by differences due to unequal trends in vegetation as a result of climate forcing due to orbital changes: while woody type vegetation plays a major role during the Eemian, the Holocene is influenced by grass land. From the modelling perspective changes in the seasonal precipitation drives the vegetation pattern.

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

2003-01-01

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, Ales; Ball, William T.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr; Peter, Thomas

2017-09-01

The double-peaked response of the tropical stratospheric temperature profile to the 11 year solar cycle (SC) has been well documented. However, there are concerns about the origin of the lower peak due to potential aliasing with volcanic eruptions or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) detected using multiple linear regression analysis. We confirm the aliasing using the results of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3 obtained in the framework of the International Global Atmospheric Chemisty/Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1. We further show that even without major volcanic eruptions included in transient simulations, the lower stratospheric response exhibits a residual peak when historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)/sea ice coverage (SIC) are used. Only the use of climatological SSTs/SICs in addition to background stratospheric aerosols removes volcanic and ENSO signals and results in an almost complete disappearance of the modeled solar signal in the lower stratospheric temperature. We demonstrate that the choice of temporal subperiod considered for the regression analysis has a large impact on the estimated profile signal in the lower stratosphere: at least 45 consecutive years are needed to avoid the large aliasing effect of SC maxima with volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 in historical simulations, reanalyses, and observations. The application of volcanic forcing compiled for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the CCM SOCOLv3 reduces the warming overestimation in the tropical lower stratosphere and the volcanic aliasing of the temperature response to the SC, although it does not eliminate it completely.

The importance of the terrestrial weathering feedback for multimillennial coral reef habitat recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meissner, Katrin J.; McNeil, Ben I.; Eby, Michael; Wiebe, Edward C.

2012-09-01

Modern-day coral reefs have well defined environmental envelopes for light, sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater aragonite saturation state (Ωarag). We examine the changes in global coral reef habitat on multimillennial timescales with regard to SST and Ωaragusing a climate model including a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model, a fully coupled carbon cycle, and six different parameterizations for continental weathering (the UVic Earth System Climate Model). The model is forced with emission scenarios ranging from 1,000 Pg C to 5,000 Pg C total emissions. We find that the long-term climate change response is independent of the rate at which CO2 is emitted over the next few centuries. On millennial timescales, the weathering feedback introduces a significant uncertainty even for low emission scenarios. Weathering parameterizations based on atmospheric CO2 only display a different transient response than weathering parameterizations that are dependent on temperature. Although environmental conditions for SST and Ωaragstay globally hostile for coral reefs for millennia for our high emission scenarios, some weathering parameterizations induce a near-complete recovery of coral reef habitat to current conditions after 10,000 years, while others result in a collapse of coral reef habitat throughout our simulations. We find that the multimillennial response in sea surface temperature (SST) substantially lags the aragonite saturation recovery in all configurations. This implies that if corals can naturally adapt over millennia by selecting thermally tolerant species to match warmer ocean temperatures, prospects for long-term recovery of coral reefs are better since Ωarag recovers more quickly than SST.

European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Schär, Christoph; Somot, Samuel; Sørland, Silje Lund; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert

2018-05-01

We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.

The Effect of Solar Forcing on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Holocene - A Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bügelmayer, Marianne; Roche, Didier; Renssen, Hans

2014-05-01

Abrupt climate changes did not only happen during glacials but also during interglacials such as the Holocene. Marine sediments provide evidence for the periodic occurrence of centennial-scale events with enhanced iceberg discharge during the past 11.000 years (Bond et al., 2001). These events were chronologically linked to reduced solar activity as reconstructed using cosmogenic isotopes (Bond et al., 2001), indicating that even an external forcing that is considered to be small, has a potential impact on climate due to several feedback mechanisms (Renssen et al., 2006). The interactions between climate and solar irradiance have been investigated using numerical models (e.g. Haigh, 1996; Renssen et al, 2006), but so far without dynamically computing the Greenland ice sheet and iceberg calving. Thus, the impact of solar variations on iceberg discharge and the underlying mechanisms have not been analysed so far. To analyse the effect of variations in solar activity on the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the iceberg calving, as well as possible feedback mechanisms that enhance the impact of the total solar irradiance, we use the earth system model of intermediate complexity (iLOVECLIM, Roche et al., 2013), coupled to the ice sheet/ice shelf model GRISLI (Ritz et al., 2001) and to a dynamic-thermodynamic iceberg module (Jongma et al., 2009, Bügelmayer et al., 2014) to perform transient experiments of the last 6000 years. The experiments are conducted applying reconstructed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic aerosol loads, orbital parameters and variations in the total solar irradiance. We present the response of the coupled model to different solar irradiance scenarios to evaluate modeled GIS sensitivity to relatively modest variations in radiative forcing. Moreover, we investigate the dependence of the model results on the chosen model sensitivity. References: Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M. N., Showers, W., … Bonani, G. (2001): Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science (New York, N.Y.), 294(5549), 2130-6. doi:10.1126/science.1065680 Bügelmayer, M., Roche, D.M., Renssen, H. (2014): How do icebergs affect the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial conditions? - A model study with a fully coupled ice sheet-climate model. The Cryosphere Discussions 8, 187-228. Haigh, J. D. (1996): The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 272, 981-984. Jongma, J.I., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Renssen, H., (2009): The effect of dynamic-thermodynamic icebergs on the Southern Ocean climate in a three-dimensional model. Ocean Modelling 26, 104-113. Renssen, H., Goosse, H., Muscheler, R., & Branch, R. (2006): Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing. Climate of the Past, 2, 79-90. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C.(2001): Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 31943-31964, doi:10.1029/2001JD900232. Roche, D.M., Dumas, C., Bügelmayer, M., Charbit, S., Ritz, C. (2013): Adding a dynamical cryosphere into iLOVECLIM (version 1.0) - Part 1: Coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model, Geoscientific Model Development Discussion, 6, 5215-5249.

Hygroscopic salts and the potential for life on Mars.

PubMed

Davila, Alfonso F; Duport, Luis Gago; Melchiorri, Riccardo; Jänchen, Jochen; Valea, Sergio; de Los Rios, Asunción; Fairén, Alberto G; Möhlmann, Diedrich; McKay, Christopher P; Ascaso, Carmen; Wierzchos, Jacek

2010-01-01

Hygroscopic salts have been detected in soils in the northern latitudes of Mars, and widespread chloride-bearing evaporitic deposits have been detected in the southern highlands. The deliquescence of hygroscopic minerals such as chloride salts could provide a local and transient source of liquid water that would be available for microorganisms on the surface. This is known to occur in the Atacama Desert, where massive halite evaporites have become a habitat for photosynthetic and heterotrophic microorganisms that take advantage of the deliquescence of the salt at certain relative humidity (RH) levels. We modeled the climate conditions (RH and temperature) in a region on Mars with chloride-bearing evaporites, and modeled the evolution of the water activity (a(w)) of the deliquescence solutions of three possible chloride salts (sodium chloride, calcium chloride, and magnesium chloride) as a function of temperature. We also studied the water absorption properties of the same salts as a function of RH. Our climate model results show that the RH in the region with chloride-bearing deposits on Mars often reaches the deliquescence points of all three salts, and the temperature reaches levels above their eutectic points seasonally, in the course of a martian year. The a(w) of the deliquescence solutions increases with decreasing temperature due mainly to the precipitation of unstable phases, which removes ions from the solution. The deliquescence of sodium chloride results in transient solutions with a(w) compatible with growth of terrestrial microorganisms down to 252 K, whereas for calcium chloride and magnesium chloride it results in solutions with a(w) below the known limits for growth at all temperatures. However, taking the limits of a(w) used to define special regions on Mars, the deliquescence of calcium chloride deposits would allow for the propagation of terrestrial microorganisms at temperatures between 265 and 253 K, and for metabolic activity (no growth) at temperatures between 253 and 233 K.

From terrestrial to aquatic fluxes: Integrating stream dynamics within a dynamic global vegetation modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Jerad; Poulter, Benjamin; Emmett, Kristen; Cross, Molly; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Maneta, Marco

2016-04-01

Integrated terrestrial ecosystem models simulate the dynamics and feedbacks between climate, vegetation, disturbance, and hydrology and are used to better understand biogeography and biogeochemical cycles. Extending dynamic vegetation models to the aquatic interface requires coupling surface and sub-surface runoff to catchment routing schemes and has the potential to enhance how researchers and managers investigate how changes in the environment might impact the availability of water resources for human and natural systems. In an effort towards creating such a coupled model, we developed catchment-based hydrologic routing and stream temperature model to pair with LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic global vegetation model. LPJ-GUESS simulates detailed stand-level vegetation dynamics such as growth, carbon allocation, and mortality, as well as various physical and hydrologic processes such as canopy interception and through-fall, and can be applied at small spatial scales, i.e., 1 km. We demonstrate how the coupled model can be used to investigate the effects of transient vegetation dynamics and CO2 on seasonal and annual stream discharge and temperature regimes. As a direct management application, we extend the modeling framework to predict habitat suitability for fish habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a 200,000 km2 region that provides critical habitat for a range of aquatic species. The model is used to evaluate, quantitatively, the effects of management practices aimed to enhance hydrologic resilience to climate change, and benefits for water storage and fish habitat in the coming century.

Sediment Transport Variability in Global Rivers: Implications for the Interpretation of Paleoclimate Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syvitski, J. P.; Hutton, E. W.

2001-12-01

A new numerical approach (HydroTrend, v.2) allows the daily flux of sediment to be estimated for any river, whether gauged or not. The model can be driven by actual climate measurements (precipitation, temperature) or with statistical estimates of climate (modeled climate, remotely-sensed climate). In both cases, the character (e.g. soil depth, relief, vegetation index) of the drainage terrain is needed to complete the model domain. The HydroTrend approach allows us to examine the effects of climate on the supply of sediment to continental margins, and the nature of supply variability. A new relationship is defined as: $Qs = f (Psi) Qs-bar (Q/Q-bar)c+-σ where Qs-bar is the long-term sediment load, Q-bar is the long-term discharge, c and sigma are mean and standard deviation of the inter-annual variability of the rating coefficient, and Psi captures the measurement errors associated with Q and Qs, and the annual transients, affecting the supply of sediment including sediment and water source, and river (flood wave) dynamics. F = F(Psi, s). Smaller-discharge rivers have larger values of s, and s asymptotes to a small but consistent value for larger-discharge rivers. The coefficient c is directly proportional to the long-term suspended load (Qs-bar) and basin relief (R), and inversely proportional to mean annual temperature (T). sigma is directly proportional to the mean annual discharge. The long-term sediment load is given by: Qs-bar = a R1.5 A0.5 TT $ where a is a global constant, A is basin area; and TT is a function of mean annual temperature. This new approach provides estimates of sediment flux at the dynamic (daily) level and provides us a means to experiment on the sensitivity of marine sedimentary deposits in recording a paleoclimate signal. In addition the method provides us with spatial estimates for the flux of sediment to the coastal zone at the global scale.

The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

PubMed

Alvioli, Massimiliano; Melillo, Massimo; Guzzetti, Fausto; Rossi, Mauro; Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia

2018-07-15

The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions.

PubMed

Millar, Richard J; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-13

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or 'effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO 2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO 2 -only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO 2 -induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO 2 warming in some ensemble members.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

PubMed Central

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-01-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Water Isotope Proxy-Proxy and Proxy-Model Convergence for Late Pleistocene East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, S. C.; Holbourn, A.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, K. E.; Liu, Z.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Confidence in reconstruction of East Asian paleomonsoon rainfall using precipitation isotope proxies is a matter of considerable debate, largely due to the lack of correlation between precipitation amount and isotopic composition in the present climate. We present four new, very highly resolved records spanning the past 300,000 years ( 200 year sample spacing) from IODP Site U1429 in the East China Sea. We demonstrate that all the orbital- and millennial-scale variance in the onshore Yangtze River Valley speleothem δ18O record1 is also embedded in the offshore Site U1429 seawater δ18O record (derived from the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and sea surface temperature reconstructions). Signal replication in these two independent terrestrial and marine archives, both controlled by the same monsoon system, uniquely identifies δ18O of precipitation as the primary driver of the precession-band variance in both records. This proxy-proxy convergence also eliminates a wide array of other drivers that have been called upon as potential contaminants to the precipitation δ18O signal recorded by these proxies. We compare East Asian precipitation isotope proxy records to precipitation amount from a CCSM3 transient climate model simulation of the past 300,000 years using realistic insolation, ice volume, greenhouse gasses, and sea level boundary conditions. This model-proxy comparison suggests that both Yangtze River Valley precipitation isotope proxies (seawater and speleothem δ18O) track changes in summer-monsoon rainfall amount at orbital time scales, as do precipitation isotope records from the Pearl River Valley2 (leaf wax δ2H) and Borneo3 (speleothem δ18O). Notably, these proxy records all have significantly different spectral structure indicating strongly regional rainfall patterns that are also consistent with model results. Transient, isotope-enabled model simulations will be necessary to more thoroughly evaluate these promising results, and to evaluate potentially distinct regional mechanisms linking rainfall amount to precipitation isotopes at orbital and millennial time scales in other monsoon regions. 1 Cheng et al., 10.1038/nature18591 2 Thomas et al., 10.1130/G36289.1 3 Carolin et al., 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.028

Surface radiation fluxes in transient climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; O'Brien, D. M.; Dix, M. R.; Murphy, J. M.; Stephens, G. L.; Wild, M.

1999-01-01

Transient CO 2 experiments from five coupled climate models, in which the CO 2 concentration increases at rates of 0.6-1.1% per annum for periods of 75-200 years, are used to document the responses of surface radiation fluxes, and associated atmospheric properties, to the CO 2 increase. In all five models, the responses of global surface temperature and column water vapour are non-linear and fairly tightly constrained. Thus, global warming lies between 1.9 and 2.7 K at doubled, and between 3.1 and 4.1 K at tripled, CO 2, whilst column water vapour increases by between 3.5 and 4.5 mm at doubled, and between 7 and 8 mm at tripled, CO 2. Global cloud fraction tends to decrease by 1-2% out to tripled CO 2, mainly the result of decreases in low cloud. Global increases in column water, and differences in these increases between models, are mainly determined by the warming of the tropical oceans relative to the middle and high latitudes; these links are emphasised in the zonal profiles of warming and column water vapour increase, with strong water vapour maxima in the tropics. In all models the all-sky shortwave flux to the surface S↓ (global, annual average) changes by less than 5 W m -2 out to tripled CO 2, in some cases being essentially invariant in time. In contrast, the longwave flux to the surface L↓ increases significantly, by 25 W m -2 typically at tripled CO 2. The variations of S↓ and L↓ (clear-sky and all-sky fluxes) with increase in CO 2 concentration are generally non-linear, reflecting the effects of ocean thermal inertia, but as functions of global warming are close to linear in all five models. This is best illustrated for the clear-sky downwelling fluxes, and the net radiation. Regionally, as illustrated in zonal profiles and global distributions, greatest changes in both S↓ and L↓ are the result primarily of local maxima in warming and column water vapour increases.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.

2012-12-01

Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense over the Arctic Ocean. The historical tendency in Arctic SLP varies considerably among the GCMs, but the intermodel average trend exhibits a lowering of mean-annual pressure over the Arctic during the past 150 years and an increase in extreme cyclones in the vicinity of the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. However, only weak trends in extreme cyclones are simulated through 2005 over the Arctic Ocean, where simulations of future climate change produce the largest SLP falls.

Competing roles of air temperature and summer precipitation events on proglacial stream discharges in Chhota Shigri Glacier catchment, Indian Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL, R.

2016-12-01

It has been widely recognized that western Himalayan region depends heavily on glacier and snow melt for its water needs. This is true especially for the Chenab sub-basin and more generally for other sub-catchments of the mighty Indus catering to the water demands of millions of stake holders who depend on this water resource. However, there are very few studies available to understand high altitude glaciated catchments, the climatic controls over their flow regimes, and their dependency on glacier mass balances, mainly because of poor access. Hence, the proglacial stream discharges from Chhota Shigri Glacier, a representative glacier of western Himalayan region has been analyzed for understanding the impact of rising air temperatures and highly variable summer precipitation events on discharges that are sourced majorly from snow melt and glacier wastage. This study, for the first time attempts to understand the factors influencing the interannual, subseasonal, and the diurnal variability observed in this representative catchment over four ablation seasons (2010-2013), by monitoring solar radiation, air temperature, summer precipitation, albedo and transient snow cover. The proglacial discharge is governed by air temperatures and albedo-enhancing summer precipitation events, which also enhances transient snow cover. While, the positive mass balance years gave rise to lesser proglacial discharges in comparison to negative mass balance years, lesser winter accumulation was compensated by the lower ablation resulting summer snowfall events in some years. While rising summer air temperatures give rise to glacier wastage, the role of melting transient snow cover on stream discharge is highly significant, especially for positive mass balance years. The pronounced interannual variations and the decreased proglacial discharge in comparison to 1980s suggest that Chhota Shigri Glacier is possibly wasting its way to reach equilibrium to the changed climatic conditions of the 21st century; however these findings need to be corroborated with runoff modeling.

Effects of Drake Passage on a strongly eddying global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2015-04-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. Drake Passage (DP) is an intensively studied gateway because it plays a central role in closing the transport pathways of heat and chemicals in the ocean. The climate response to a closed DP has been explored with a variety of general circulation models, however, all of these models employ low model-grid resolutions such that the effects of subgrid-scale fluctuations ('eddies') are parameterized. We present results of the first high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed DP in which the eddy field is largely resolved. The simulation extends over more than 200 years such that the strong transient adjustment process is passed and a near-equilibrium ocean state is reached. The effects of DP are diagnosed by comparing with both an open DP high-resolution control simulation (of same length) and corresponding low-resolution simulations. By focussing on the heat/tracer transports we demonstrate that the results are twofold: Considering spatially integrated transports the overall response to a closed DP is well captured by low-resolution simulations. However, looking at the actual spatial distributions drastic differences appear between far-scattered high-resolution and laminar-uniform low-resolution fields. We conclude that sparse and highly localized tracer proxy observations have to be interpreted carefully with the help of high-resolution model simulations.

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayarzaguena, B.; Langematz, U.; Polvani, L. M; Abalichin, J.; Akiyoshi, H.; Klekociuk, A.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Oman, L.

2015-01-01

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Updated estimates of the climate response to emissions and their policy implications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, A.; Stocker, T. F.; Frame, D. J.

2013-12-01

We review the implications of observations of the global energy budget over recent decades, particularly the 'warming hiatus' period over the 2000s, for key climate system properties including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). We show how estimates of the upper bound of ECS remain, as ever, sensitive to prior assumptions and also how ECS, even if it were better constrained, would provide much less information about the social cost of carbon than TCR or TCRE. Hence the excitement over recent, apparently conflicting, estimates of ECS, is almost entirely misplaced. Of greater potential policy significance is the fact that recent observations imply a modest (of order 25%) downward revision in the upper bound and most likely values of TCR and TCRE, as compared to some, but not all, of the estimates published in the mid-2000s. This is partly due to the recent reduced rate of warming, and partly due to revisions in estimates of total anthropogenic forcing to date. Both of these developments may turn out to be short-lived, so the policy implications of this modest revision in TCR/TCRE should not be over-sold: nevertheless, it is interesting to explore what they are. The implications for climate change adaptation of a 25% downward revision in TCR and TCRE are minimal, being overshadowed by uncertainty due to internal variability and non-CO2 climate forcings over typical timescales for adaptation planning. We introduce a simple framework for assessing the implications for mitigation in terms of timing of peak emissions average rates of emission reduction required to avoid specific levels of peak warming. We show that, as long as emissions continue to increase approximately exponentially, the implications for mitigation of any revisions in the climate response are surprisingly small.

Dynamic root distributions in ecohydrological modeling: A case study at Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivandran, Gajan; Bras, Rafael L.

2013-06-01

Arid regions are characterized by high variability in the arrival of rainfall, and species found in these areas have adapted mechanisms to ensure the capture of this scarce resource. In particular, the rooting strategies employed by vegetation can be critical to their survival. However, land surface models currently prescribe rooting profiles as a function of only the plant functional type of interest with no consideration for the soil texture or rainfall regime of the region being modeled. Additionally, these models do not incorporate the ability of vegetation to dynamically alter their rooting strategies in response to transient changes in environmental forcings or competition from other plant species and therefore tend to underestimate the resilience of these ecosystems. To address the simplicity of the current representation of roots in land surface models, a new dynamic rooting scheme was incorporated into the framework of the distributed ecohydrological model tRIBS+VEGGIE. The new scheme optimizes the allocation of carbon to the root zone to reduce the perceived stress of the vegetation, so that root profiles evolve based upon local climate and soil conditions. The ability of the new scheme to capture the complex dynamics of natural systems was evaluated by comparisons to hourly timescale energy flux, soil moisture, and vegetation growth observations from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona. Robust agreement was found between the model and observations, providing confidence that the improved model is able to capture the multidirectional interactions between climate, soil, and vegetation at this site.

Mass and tracer transport within oceanic Lagrangian coherent vortices as diagnosed in a global mesoscale eddying climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarshish, Nathaniel; Abernathey, Ryan; Dufour, Carolina; Frenger, Ivy; Griffies, Stephen

2017-04-01

Transient ocean mesoscale fluctuations play a central role in the global climate system, transporting climate relevant tracers such as heat and carbon. In satellite observations and numerical simulations, mesoscale vortices feature prominently as collectively rotating regions that remain visibly coherent. Prior studies on transport from ocean vortices typically rely on Eulerian identification methods, in which vortices are identified by selecting closed contours of Eulerian fields (e.g. sea surface height, or the Okubo-Weiss parameter) that satisfy geometric criteria and anomaly thresholds. In contrast, recent studies employ Lagrangian analysis of virtual particle trajectories initialized within the selected Eulerian contours, revealing significant discrepancies between the advection of the contour's material interior and the evolution of the Eulerian field contour. This work investigates the global mass and tracer transport associated with materially coherent surface ocean vortices. Further, it addresses differences between Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses for the detection of vortices. To do so, we use GFDL's CM2.6 coupled climate model with 5-10km horizontal grid spacing. We identify coherent vortices in CM2.6 by implementing the Rotationally Coherent Lagrangian Vortex (RCLV) framework, which recently emerged from dynamical systems theory. This approach involves the numerical advection of millions of Lagrangian particles and guarantees material coherence by construction. We compute the statistics, spatial distribution, and lifetimes of coherent vortices in addition to calculating the associated mass and tracer transports. We offer compelling evidence that Eulerian vortex methods are poorly suited to answer questions of mass and tracer transport.

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Bennett, A. P.; Breen, Amy L.; Genet, Helene; Lindgren, Michael A.; Kurkowski, Tom; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T. Scott

2016-01-01

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m−2 decade−1regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m−2 decade−1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m−2 decade−1). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m−2decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m−2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Reconstruction of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics in a fully coupled Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Huybrechts, Philippe

2016-04-01

Earth system models (ESMs) are undoubtedly effective tools for studying climate dynamics. Incorporation of evolving ice sheets to ESMs is a challenging task because response times of the climate system and of ice sheets differ by several orders of magnitude. Besides, AO GCMs operate on spatial and temporal resolutions substantially differing from those of ice sheet models (ICMs). Therefore elaboration of an effective coupling methodology of an AO GCM and an ICM is the key problem of an ESM construction and utilization. Several downscaling strategies of varying complexity exist now of data exchange between modeled climate system and ice sheets. Application of a particular strategy depends on the research objectives. In our view, the optimum approach for model studying of significant environmental changes (e.g. glacial/interglacial transitions) when ice sheets undergo substantial evolution of geometry and volume would be an asynchronous coupling. The latter allows simulation in the interactive way of growth and decay of ice sheets in the changing climatic conditions. In the focus of the presentation, is the overview of coupling aspects of an AO GCM INMCM32 elaborated in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) to the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). To provide interactive coupling of INMCM32 (spatial resolution 5°×4°, 21 vertical layers and temporal resolution 6 min. in the atmospheric block) and GrISM (spatial resolution 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution), we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between INMCM32 and GrISM. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland. Transfer of daily meanings of simulated climatic variables (air surface temperature and specific humidity) is provided on the lateral boundarias of the domain and inside the domain (sea level air pressure, wind speed and total cloudiness) after applying spline interpolation. EWBM-G calculates annual surface mass balance, SMB, (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM32). After receiving SMB, GrIS is integrated and returns update surface topography back to the INMCM32. The aim of the current research is to establish equilibration time of climate and GrIS in the transient coupled run and to elaborate optimum methodology for performing numerical experiments simulating glacial/interglacial transitions.

Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, A. G.; Grillakis, M. G.; Daliakopoulos, I. N.; Tsanis, I. K.; Jacob, D.

2016-01-01

Ensemble pan-European projections under a 2 °C global warming relative to the preindustrial period reveal a more intense warming in south Eastern Europe by up to +3 °C, thus indicating that impacts of climate change will be disproportionately high for certain regions. The Mediterranean is projected as one of the most vulnerable areas to climatic and anthropogenic changes with decreasing rainfall trends and a continuous gradual warming causing a progressive decline of average stream flow. Many Mediterranean regions are currently experiencing high to severe water stress induced by human and climate drivers. Changes in average climate conditions will increase this stress notably because of a 10-30% decline in freshwater resources. For small island states, where accessibility to freshwater resources is limited the impact will be more pronounced. Here we use a generalized cross-sectoral framework to assess the impact of climatic and socioeconomic futures on the water resources of an Eastern Mediterranean island. A set of representative regional climate models simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative driven by different RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 GCMs are used to form a comparable set of results and a useful basis for the assessment of uncertainties related to impacts of 2° warming and above. A generalized framework of a cross-sectoral water resources analysis was developed in collaboration with the local water authority exploring and costing adaptation measures associated with a set of socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Transient hydrological modeling was performed to describe the projected hydro-climatological regime and water availability for each warming level. The robust signal of less precipitation and higher temperatures that is projected by climate simulations results to a severe decrease of local water resources which can be mitigated by a number of actions. Awareness of the practical implications of plausible hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios in the not so distant future may be the key to shift perception and preference towards a more sustainable direction.

Simulating the impact of climate, land use and human water use on the hydrological system over the period 1850-2100 using PCR-GLOBWB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosmans, Joyce; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2015-04-01

In this study we investigate the impact of humans on the global hydrological system by separating the impacts of climate change, land use and land cover change, and human water use in a series of experiments with the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model (e.g. van Beek et al., 2011; Sutanudjaja et al., 2014). We force PCR-GLOBWB with input from the EC-Earth and CESM GCMs, allowing us to extend our experiments from the pre-industrial (1850) to the end of the century (2099). Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios are used for the coming century: Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), a low-end scenario, as well as the high-end RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation, temperature and reference potential evapotranspiration are applied to PCR-GLOBWB, after bias-correction using the ISI-MIP method (Hempel et al., 2013). The reference potential evapotranspiration is computed using the Penman-Monteith equation with GCM wind, radiation, temperature, humidity and pressure as opposed to the Hamon method used as default in PCR-GLOBWB. To evaluate the impacts of climate change as well as land use and land cover (LULC) change, we apply a combination of fixed and transient LULC scenarios. First, LULC is kept fixed at 1850 values, so the hydrological model is only experiencing changes in precipitation, temperature and reference potential evapotranspiration. Then, LULC is allowed to vary according to historical reconstructions (HYDE) and future projections per RCP (Hurtt et al., 2011). In these experiments, anthropogenic effects are excluded. This is the first study to evaluate PCR-GLOBWB with pre-industrial or transient LULC in combination with present and future climate change. The next step is to investigate human impacts on the water system, by comparing the experiment with varying LULC to an experiment that additionally includes reservoir operations, human water abstractions including irrigation (paddy and non-paddy) and subsequent return flows. We aim to project future human impacts using information based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In previous studies, domestic, industrial and irrigation water demand were varied over the past decades in PCR-GLOBWB. Here we improve the analyses of human impacts on the hydrological system by looking further into the past and the future, as well as by comparing the impact of human water use to impacts of climate and LULC change. van Beek et al (2011), Global monthly water stress: 1. Water balance and water availability. Water Resources Research, Vol 47. Hempel et al (2013), A trend-preserving bias correction - the ISI-MIP approach. Earth System Dynamics, Vol 4. Hurtt et al (2011), Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change, Vol 109. Sutanudjaja et al (2014), Development and validation of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0: a 5 arc min resolution global hydrology and water resources model. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts

Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.

PubMed

Blois, Jessica L; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Finnegan, Seth

2013-08-02

Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.

Differentiating Hydrothermal, Pedogenic, and Glacial Weathering in a Cold Volcanic Mars-Analog Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scudder, N. A.; Horgan, B.; Havig, J.; Rutledge, A.; Rampe, E. B.; Hamilton, T.

2016-01-01

Although the current cold, dry environment of Mars extends back through much of its history, its earliest periods experienced significant water- related surface activity. Both geomorphic features (e.g., paleolakes, deltas, and river valleys) and hydrous mineral detections (e.g., clays and salts) have historically been interpreted to imply a "warm and wet" early Mars climate. More recently, atmospheric modeling studies have struggled to produce early climate conditions with temperatures above 0degC, leading some studies to propose a "cold and icy" early Mars dominated by widespread glaciation with transient melting. However, the alteration mineralogy produced in subglacial environments is not well understood, so the extent to which cold climate glacial weathering can produce the diverse alteration mineralogy observed on Mars is unknown. This summer, we will be conducting a field campaign in a glacial weathering environment in the Cascade Range, OR in order to determine the types of minerals that these environments produce. However, we must first disentangle the effects of glacial weathering from other significant alteration processes. Here we attempt a first understanding of glacial weathering by differentiating rocks and sediments weathered by hydrothermal, pedogenic, and glacial weathering processes in the Cascades volcanic range.

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Denis; Person, Mark; Daannen, Ronnie; Locke, Sharon; Dahlstrom, Dave; Zabielski, Victor; Winter, Thomas C.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Wright, Herb; Ito, Emi; Nieber, John L.; Gutowski, William J.

2006-04-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal.

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Processes governing transient responses of the deep ocean buoyancy budget to a doubling of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, J. B.; Griffies, S. M.; Hunter Samuels, B. L.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2012-12-01

Recent observational analyses suggest there is a temporal trend and high-frequency variability in deep ocean buoyancy in the last twenty years, a phenomenon reproduced even in low-mixing models. Here we use an earth system model (GFDL's ESM2M) to evaluate physical processes that influence buoyancy (and thus steric sea level) budget of the deep ocean in quasi-steady state and under a doubling of CO2. A new suite of model diagnostics allows us to quantitatively assess every process that influences the buoyancy budget and its temporal evolution, revealing surprising dynamics governing both the equilibrium budget and its transient response to climate change. The results suggest that the temporal evolution of the deep ocean contribution to sea level rise is due to a diversity of processes at high latitudes, whose net effect is then advected in the Eulerian mean flow to mid and low latitudes. In the Southern Ocean, a slowdown in convection and spin up of the residual mean advection are approximately equal players in the deep steric sea level rise. In the North Atlantic, the region of greatest deep steric sea level variability in our simulations, a decrease in mixing of cold, dense waters from the marginal seas and a reduction in open ocean convection causes an accumulation of buoyancy in the deep subpolar gyre, which is then advected equatorward.

Thermal comfort: research and practice.

PubMed

van Hoof, Joost; Mazej, Mitja; Hensen, Jan L M

2010-01-01

Thermal comfort--the state of mind, which expresses satisfaction with the thermal environment--is an important aspect of the building design process as modern man spends most of the day indoors. This paper reviews the developments in indoor thermal comfort research and practice since the second half of the 1990s, and groups these developments around two main themes; (i) thermal comfort models and standards, and (ii) advances in computerization. Within the first theme, the PMV-model (Predicted Mean Vote), created by Fanger in the late 1960s is discussed in the light of the emergence of models of adaptive thermal comfort. The adaptive models are based on adaptive opportunities of occupants and are related to options of personal control of the indoor climate and psychology and performance. Both models have been considered in the latest round of thermal comfort standard revisions. The second theme focuses on the ever increasing role played by computerization in thermal comfort research and practice, including sophisticated multi-segmental modeling and building performance simulation, transient thermal conditions and interactions, thermal manikins.

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muljadi, Eduard

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

A framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

2014-05-01

In order to better understand the uncertainties in the climate of the next decades, an increasingly large number of increasingly diverse climate projections is being produced by the climate research community through coordinated initiatives (e.g., CMIP5, CORDEX), but also through more specific experiments at both the global scale (perturbed parameter ensembles) and the regional-to-local scale (empirical statistical downscaling ensembles). When significant efforts are put into making such projections available online, very few works focus on how to make such an enormous amount of information actually usable by the impact and adaptation community. Climate services should therefore include guidelines and recommendations for identifying subsets of climate projections that would have (1) a size manageable by downstream modelling approaches and (2) the relevant properties for informing adaptation strategies. This works proposes a generic framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections that would meet both the objectives and the constraints of a specific impact / adaptation study in a typical top-down approach. This decision framework builds on two main preliminary tasks that lead to critical choices in the selection strategy: (1) understanding the requirements of the specific impact / adaptation study, and (2) characterizing the (downscaled) climate projections dataset available. An impact / adaptation study has two types of requirements. First, the study may aim at various outcomes for a given climate-related feature: the best estimate of the future, the range of possible futures, a set of representative futures, or a statistically interpretable ensemble of futures. Second, impact models may come with specific constraints on climate input variables, like spatio-temporal and between-variables coherence. Additionally, when concurrent impact models are used, the most restrictive constraints have to be considered in order to be able to assess the uncertainty associated from this modelling step. Besides, the climate projection dataset available for a given study has several characteristics that will heavily condition the type of conclusions that can be reached. Indeed, the dataset at hand may or not sample different types of uncertainty (socio-economic, structural, parametric, along with internal variability). Moreover, these types are present at different steps in the well-known cascade of uncertainty, from the emission / concentration scenarios and the global climate to the regional-to-local climate. Critical choices for the selection are therefore conditioned on all features above. The type of selection (picking out, culling, or statistical sampling) is closely related to the study objectives and the uncertainty types present in the dataset. Moreover, grounds for picking out or culling projections may stem from global, regional or feature-specific present-day performance, representativeness, or covered range. An example use of this framework is a hierarchical selection for 3 classes of impact models among 3000 transient climate projections from different runs of 4 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods, and made available for an integrated water resource adaptation study in the Durance catchment (southern French Alps). This work is part of the GICC R2D2-20501 project (Risk, water Resources and sustainable Development of the Durance catchment in 2050) and the EU FP7 COMPLEX2 project (Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy).

Early to middle Miocene climate evolution: New insights from IODP Sites U1335, U1337 and U1338 (eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochhann, Karlos G. D.; Holbourn, Ann; Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Lyle, Mitch; Raffi, Isabella; Channell, James E.; Andersen, Nils

2015-04-01

The lower to middle Miocene (~20 to 13 Ma) carbonate-rich sedimentary successions recovered at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Sites U1335, U1337 and U1338 allow unsurpassed resolution over the Climatic Optimum (16.9-14.7 Ma) and the transition into a colder climate mode after 13.9 Ma with re-establishment of permanent Antarctic ice sheets. High-resolution (1-10 kyr) stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes of well-preserved epibenthic foraminifera (Cibicidoides mundulus and Planulina wuellerstorfi) from these three sites show that the Climatic Optimum was characterized by high-amplitude climate variations and intense perturbations of the carbon cycle. Episodes of peak warmth coincided with transient shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth and enhanced carbonate dissolution in the deep ocean. The U1335 and U1337 records additionally reveal that the rapid global warming and/or polar ice melting event, marking the onset of the Climatic Optimum at ~16.9 Ma, was coupled to a massive increase in carbonate dissolution, indicated by sharp drops in carbonate percentages and accumulation rates and by the fragmentation or complete dissolution of planktonic foraminifers. After ~14.7 Ma, stepwise global cooling, culminating with extensive ice growth over Antarctica at ~13.8 Ma, coincide with enhanced opal and benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates, suggesting that increased siliceous productivity and organic carbon burial may have contributed to CO2 drawdown. Integration of age models derived from orbitally-tuned, high-resolution isotopes, biostratigraphic data and magnetic reversals allows further constraints on the temporal sequence of events and helps unravel the drivers of early to middle Miocene climate variations.

Transient triggering of near and distant earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Blanpied, M.L.; Beeler, N.M.

1997-01-01

We demonstrate qualitatively that frictional instability theory provides a context for understanding how earthquakes may be triggered by transient loads associated with seismic waves from near and distance earthquakes. We assume that earthquake triggering is a stick-slip process and test two hypotheses about the effect of transients on the timing of instabilities using a simple spring-slider model and a rate- and state-dependent friction constitutive law. A critical triggering threshold is implicit in such a model formulation. Our first hypothesis is that transient loads lead to clock advances; i.e., transients hasten the time of earthquakes that would have happened eventually due to constant background loading alone. Modeling results demonstrate that transient loads do lead to clock advances and that the triggered instabilities may occur after the transient has ceased (i.e., triggering may be delayed). These simple "clock-advance" models predict complex relationships between the triggering delay, the clock advance, and the transient characteristics. The triggering delay and the degree of clock advance both depend nonlinearly on when in the earthquake cycle the transient load is applied. This implies that the stress required to bring about failure does not depend linearly on loading time, even when the fault is loaded at a constant rate. The timing of instability also depends nonlinearly on the transient loading rate, faster rates more rapidly hastening instability. This implies that higher-frequency and/or longer-duration seismic waves should increase the amount of clock advance. These modeling results and simple calculations suggest that near (tens of kilometers) small/moderate earthquakes and remote (thousands of kilometers) earthquakes with magnitudes 2 to 3 units larger may be equally effective at triggering seismicity. Our second hypothesis is that some triggered seismicity represents earthquakes that would not have happened without the transient load (i.e., accumulated strain energy would have been relieved via other mechanisms). We test this using two "new-seismicity" models that (1) are inherently unstable but slide at steady-state conditions under the background load and (2) are conditionally stable such that instability occurs only for sufficiently large perturbations. For the new-seismicity models, very small-amplitude transients trigger instability relative to the clock-advance models. The unstable steady-state models predict that the triggering delay depends inversely and nonlinearly on the transient amplitude (as in the clock-advance models). We were unable to generate delayed triggering with conditionally stable models. For both new-seismicity models, the potential for triggering is independent of when the transient load is applied or, equivalently, of the prestress (unlike in the clock-advance models). In these models, a critical triggering threshold appears to be inversely proportional to frequency. Further advancement of our understanding will require more sophisticated, quantitative models and observations that distinguish between our qualitative, yet distinctly different, model predictions.

Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Markus; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin

2018-04-01

In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm) in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial times (PI). In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon-climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon-climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon-climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment as in the PI experiment. For PI, ocean and land contributions to the total feedback are of similar size, while in the LGM case the terrestrial feedback is dominant.

Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: an ESM sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard; Seneviratne, Sonia

2014-05-01

Mitigation efforts to reduce anthropogenic climate forcing have thus far proven inadequate, as evident from accelerating greenhouse gas emissions. Many subtropical and mid-latitude regions are expected to experience longer and more frequent heat waves and droughts within the next century. This increased occurrence of weather extremes has important implications for human health, mortality and for socio-economic factors including forest fires, water availability and agricultural production. Various solar radiation management (SRM) schemes that attempt to homogeneously counter the anthropogenic forcing have been examined with different Earth System Models (ESM). Land climate engineering schemes have also been investigated which reduces the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed at the surface. However, few studies have investigated their effects on extremes but rather on mean climate response. Here we present the results of a series of climate engineering sensitivity experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.2 at 2°-resolution. This configuration entails 5 fully coupled model components responsible for simulating the Earth's atmosphere, land, land-ice, ocean and sea-ice that interact through a central coupler. Historical and RCP8.5 scenarios were performed with transient land-cover changes and prognostic terrestrial Carbon/Nitrogen cycles. Four sets of experiments are performed in which surface albedo over snow-free vegetated grid points is increased by 0.5, 0.10, 0.15 and 0.20. The simulations show a strong preferential cooling of hot extremes throughout the Northern mid-latitudes during boreal summer. A strong linear scaling between the cooling of extremes and additional surface albedo applied to the land model is observed. The strongest preferential cooling is found in southeastern Europe and the central United States, where increases of soil moisture and evaporative fraction are the largest relative to the control simulation. This preferential cooling is found to intensify in the future scenario. Cloud cover strongly limits the efficacy of a given surface albedo increase to reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. As anthropogenic forcing increases, cloud cover decreases over much of the northern mid-latitudes in CESM.

CO/sub 2/ and Spaceship Earth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terra, S.

1978-01-01

Atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations have increased so rapidly since the start of the industrial revolution that the threat of climatic and economic disruptions may require limitations on future fossil-energy production. The greenhouse effect by which longwave radiation is absorbed by CO/sub 2/ and reradiated back to earth, will raise the earth's temperature. Other factors can be traced to a warming trend caused by an increase in nitrous oxides from agricultural activity and a cooling tendency as the added warmth increases evaporation and cloud formation. Several national and international studies of CO/sub 2/ effects are underway and legislation for further datamore » and research has been proposed in Congress. While scientists agree that CO/sub 2/ levels are increasing, they disagree on the nature of the long-term effects on climate, crop production, deglaciation, and the impact of forest and other biological matter. Simulation models for projecting future conditions need to include transients to predict the effects of CO/sub 2/ level changes.« less

The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

Global temperature change

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

Synergy of climate change and local pressures on saltwater intrusion in heterogeneous coastal aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abou Najm, M.; Safi, A.; El-Fadel, M.; Doummar, J.; Alameddine, I.

2016-12-01

The relative importance of climate change induced sea level rise on the salinization of a highly urbanized karstified coastal aquifers were compared with non-sustainable pumping. A 3D variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model was used to predict the displacement of the saltwater-freshwater interface in a pilot aquifer located along the Eastern Mediterranean. The results showed that the influence of sea level rise was marginal when compared with the encroachment of salinity associated with anthropogenic abstraction. Model predictions of salinity mass and volumetric displacement of the interface corresponding to a long-term monthly transient model showed that the saltwater intrusion dynamic is highly sensitive to change in the abstraction rates which were estimated based on combinations of water consumption rates and population growth rates. Salinity encroachment, however, appeared to be more sensitive to water consumption rates in comparison to population growth rates, where a 50% increase in the rate of former led to four times more intrusion as compared to an equivalent increase in population growth rate over 20 years. Coupling both increase in population growth and increased consumption rates had a synergistic effect that aggravated the intrusion beyond the sum of the individual impacts. Adaptation strategies targeting a decrease in groundwater exploitation proved to be effective in retarding the intrusion.

Estimating the impact of oyster restoration scenarios on transient fish production

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCoy, Elizabeth; Borrett, Stuart R.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Peterson, Bradley J.

2017-01-01

Oyster reef restoration projects are increasing in number both to enhance oyster density and to retain valuable ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs. Although some oyster restoration projects have demonstrated success by increasing density and biomass of transient fish, it still remains a challenge to quantify the effects of oyster restoration on transient fish communities. We developed a bioenergetics model to assess the impact of selected oyster reef restoration scenarios on associated transient fish species. We used the model to analyze the impact of changes in (1) oyster population carrying capacity; (2) oyster population growth rate; and (3) diet preference of transient fish on oyster reef development and associated transient fish species. Our model results indicate that resident fish biomass is directly affected by oyster restoration and oyster biomass, and oyster restoration can have cascading impacts on transient fish biomass. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of a favorable oyster population growth rate during early restoration years, as it can lead to rapid increases in mean oyster biomass and biomass of transient fish species. The model also revealed that a transient fish's diet solely dependent on oyster reef-derived prey could limit the biomass of transient fish species, emphasizing the importance of habitat connectivity in estuarine areas to enhance transient fish species biomass. Simple bioenergetics models can be developed to understand the dynamics of a system and make qualitative predictions of management and restoration scenarios.

Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor); Hoffman, Forrest; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D.

2002-01-01

A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time. Any single spot on the globe will exist in one of these climate regimes at any single point in time. By incrementing time, that same spot will trace out a trajectory or orbit between and among these climate regimes (or atmospheric states) in phase (or state) space. When a geographic region enters a state it never previously visited, a climatic change is said to have occurred. Tracing out the entire trajectory of a single spot on the globe yields a 'manifold' in state space representing the shape of its predicted climate occupancy. This sort of analysis enables a researcher to more easily grasp the multivariate behavior of the climate system.

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

2017-06-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR estimates. SLR projections for 2300 yield median responses of 1.02 m for RCP2.6, 1.76 m for RCP4.5, 2.38 m for RCP6.0, and 4.73 m for RCP8.5. The MAGICC sea level model provides a flexible and efficient platform for the analysis of major scenario, model, and climate uncertainties underlying long-term SLR projections. It can be used as a tool to directly investigate the SLR implications of different mitigation pathways and may also serve as input for regional SLR assessments via component-wise sea level pattern scaling.

The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

2017-02-01

The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

Northern Hemisphere Autumn and Winter Climate Responses to Realistic Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia Snow Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.; Yao, Y.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

The impact of the Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) circulation is first investigated by applying a lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA) to monthly satellite-derived SCE and NCEP reanalysis data. Wintertime atmospheric signals significantly correlated with persistently autumn-early winter SCE anomalies are found in the leading two MCA modes. The first MCA mode indicates the effect of Eurasian snow cover anomalies on the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). The second MCA mode links a persistent dipole of autumn and winter SCE anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Mongolia with winter Pacific-North America (PNA)-like atmospheric variations. A modeling study further investigates atmospheric responses to above TP and Mongolia snow forcings using multiple ensemble transient integrations of the CAM4 and CLM4.0 models. Model boundary conditions are based on climatological sea ice extent (SIE) and sea surface temperature (SST), and satellite observations of SCE and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the TP and Mongolia from October to March in 1997/98 (heavy TP and light Mongolia snow) and 1984/85 (light TP and heavy Mongolia snow), with model derived SCE and SWE elsewhere. In various forcing experiments, the ensemble-mean difference between simulations with these two extreme snow states identifies local, distant, concurrent, and delayed climatic responses. The main atmospheric responses to a dipole of high TP and low Mongolia SCE persisting from October to March (versus the opposite extreme) are strong TP surface cooling, warming in the surrounding China and Mongolia region, and a winter positive PNA-like response. The localized response is maintained by persistent diabatic cooling or heating, and the remote PNA response results mainly from the increased horizontal eastward propagation of stationary Rossby wave energy due to persistent TP snow forcing and also a winter transient eddy feedback mechanism. With a less persistent dipole anomaly in autumn or winter only, local responses are similar depending on the specific anomalies, but the winter PNA-like response is nearly absent or noticeably reduced.

Modelling lake-water photochemistry: three-decade assessment of the steady-state concentration of photoreactive transients (·OH, CO3(-·) and (3)CDOM(∗)) in the surface water of polymictic Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia).

PubMed

Minella, Marco; De Laurentiis, Elisa; Buhvestova, Olga; Haldna, Marina; Kangur, Külli; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

2013-03-01

Over the last 3-4 decades, Lake Peipsi water (sampling site A, middle part of the lake, and site B, northern part) has experienced a statistically significant increase of bicarbonate, pH, chemical oxygen demand, nitrate (and nitrite in site B), due to combination of climate change and eutrophication. By photochemical modelling, we predicted a statistically significant decrease of radicals ·OH and CO3(-·) (site A, by 45% and 35%, respectively) and an increase of triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter ((3)CDOM(∗); site B, by ∼25%). These species are involved in pollutant degradation, but formation of harmful by-products is more likely with (3)CDOM(∗) than with ·OH. Therefore, the photochemical self-cleansing ability of Lake Peipsi probably decreased with time, due to combined effects of climate change and eutrophication. In different environments (e.g. Lake Maggiore, NW Italy), ecosystem restoration policies had the additional advantage of enhancing sunlight-driven detoxification, suggesting that photochemical self-cleansing would be positively correlated with lake water quality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Sulfate Aerosol Trigger for the Sturtian Neoproterozoic Snowball Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wordsworth, R. D.; Macdonald, F. A.

2017-12-01

Despite the dominance of the carbon cycle in determining the evolution of Earth's climate in general, certain events defy easy explanation via atmospheric CO2 changes alone. Here we discuss the particular role that transient planetary albedo changes via sulfate aerosol formation can play in major climate transitions. Specifically, we propose that SO2 outgassing associated with the eruption of the Franklin Large Igneous Province (LIP) led to the first Neoproterozoic Snowball event, the Sturtian, 716 Ma. We summarize U/Pb zircon and baddeleyite dating indicating the synchronicity of the Franklin eruptions and the onset of the Sturtian, and paleomagnetic data indicating that the Franklin erupted close to the equator. We then discuss in detail the modeling we have performed of eruption rate, the plume height achieved during basaltic fissure volcanism, the chemistry and microphysics of sulfate aerosol formation, and the dependence of aerosol longwave and shortwave radiative effects on atmospheric loading, particle size and surface albedo. We discuss the critical importance of the latitude of eruption, the tropopause height, and ocean dynamics in determining the strength and sign of aerosol radiative forcing. We finish by comparing the Franklin event with other LIP emplacement events in Earth history and make suggestions for future modeling.

Transient and asymptotic behavior in a regular network model for the ice-albedo feedback under thermal forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller-Stoffels, M.; Wackerbauer, R.

2010-12-01

The Arctic ocean and sea ice form a feedback system which plays an important role in the global climate. Variations of the global ice and snow distribution have a significant effect on the planetary albedo which governs the absorption of shortwave radiation. The complexity of highly parametrized GCMs makes it very difficult to assess single feedback processes in the climate system without the concurrent use of simple models where the physics are understood [1][2][3]. We introduce a complex systems model to investigate thermodynamic feedback processes in an Arctic ice-ocean layer. The ice-ocean layer is represented as a regular network of coupled cells. The state of each cell is determined by its energy content, which also defines the phase of the cell. The energy transport between cells is described with nonlinear and heterogeneous diffusion constants. And the time-evolution of the ice-ocean is driven by shortwave, longwave and lateral oceanic and atmospheric thermal forcing. This model is designed to study the stability of an ice cover under various heat intake scenarios. The network structure of the model allows to easily introduce albedo heterogeneities due to aging ice, wind blown snow cover, and ice movement to explore the time-evolution and pattern formation (melt ponds) processes in the Arctic sea ice. The solely thermodynamic model exhibits two stable states; one in the perennially ice covered domain and one in the perennially open water domain. Their existence is due to the temperature dependence of the longwave radiative budget. Transition between these states can be forced via lateral heat fluxes. During the transition from the ice covered to the open water stable state the ice albedo feedback effects are manifested as an increased warming rate of the ice cover together with enhanced seasonal energy oscillations. In the current model realization seasonal ice cover is present as a transient state only. Furthermore, the model exhibits hysteresis between the ice covered and the open water state when varying the lateral atmospheric (or oceanic) heat intake. Once the ice-ocean layer has transitioned from the ice covered to the open water stable state significant cooling (reduction of lateral fluxes) is necessary to return to the ice covered stable state. We also find that ocean heat fluxes are more efficient than atmospheric heat fluxes to melt Arctic sea ice; only small portions of heat entering from the bottom of the ice-ocean layer induce already a transition to the stable asymptotic state with perennial open water. This indicates that ocean currents, understood as heat conveyors, can play a significant role in melting continuous ice covers. This is consistent with the findings of Shimada et al. for the Canada basin [4]. References: [1] S. Bony et al., How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?, J of Climate 19, 3445 (2006). [2]I. Eisenman and J.S. Wettlaufer, Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice, PNAS 106, 28 (2009). [3]A.S. Thorndike, A Toy Model Linking Atmospheric and Thermal Radiation and Sea Ice Growth, JGR 97, 9401 (1992). [4] K. Shimada et al., Paci[|#12#|]c Ocean inflow: Influence on catastrophic reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, GRL 33, L08605 (2006).

Enhanced Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau Due to Double CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiao-Dong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) regional climate model (RegCM2) with time-dependent lateral meteorological fields provided by a 130-year transient increasing CO2 simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) has been used to investigate the mechanism of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP (Tibetan Plateau). From our model results, a remarkable tendency of warming increasing with elevation is found for the winter season, and elevation dependency of warming is not clearly recognized in the summer season. This simulated feature of elevation dependency of ground temperature is consistent with observations. Based on an analysis of surface energy budget, the short wave solar radiation absorbed at the surface plus downward long wave flux reaching the surface shows a strong elevation dependency, and is mostly responsible for enhanced surface warming over the TP. At lower elevations, the precipitation forced by topography is enhanced due to an increase in water vapor supply resulted from a warming in the atmosphere induced by doubling CO2. This precipitation enhancement must be associated with an increase in clouds, which results in a decline in solar flux reaching surface. At higher elevations, large snow depletion is detected in the 2xCO2run. It leads to a decrease in albedo, therefore more solar flux is absorbed at the surface. On the other hand, much more uniform increase in downward long wave flux reaching the surface is found. The combination of these effects (i.e. decrease in solar flux at lower elevations, increase in solar flux at higher elevation and more uniform increase in downward long wave flux) results in elevation dependency of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP.

Transient modelling of lacustrine regressions: two case studies from the Andean Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condom, Thomas; Coudrain, Anne; Dezetter, Alain; Brunstein, Daniel; Delclaux, François; Jean-Emmanuel, Sicart

2004-09-01

A model was developed for estimating the delay between a change in climatic conditions and the corresponding fall of water level in large lakes. The input data include: rainfall, temperature, extraterrestrial radiation and astronomical mid-month daylight hours. The model uses two empirical coefficients for computing the potential evaporation and one parameter for the soil capacity. The case studies are two subcatchments of the Altiplano (196 000 km2), in which the central low points are Lake Titicaca and a salar corresponding to the desiccation of the Tauca palaeolake. During the Holocene, the two catchments experienced a 100 m fall in water level corresponding to a decrease in water surface area of 3586 km2 and 55 000 km2, respectively. Under modern climatic conditions with a marked rainy season, the model allows simulation of water levels in good agreement with the observations: 3810 m a.s.l. for Lake Titicaca and lack of permanent wide ponds in the southern subcatchment. Simulations were carried out under different climatic conditions that might explain the Holocene fall in water level. Computed results show quite different behaviour for the two subcatchments. For the northern subcatchment, the time required for the 100 m fall in lake-level ranges between 200 and 2000 years when, compared with the present conditions, (i) the rainfall is decreased by 15% (640 mm/year), or (ii) the temperature is increased by 5.5 °C, or (iii) rainfall is distributed equally over the year. For the southern subcatchment (Tauca palaeolake), the time required for a 100 m decrease in water level ranges between 50 and 100 years. This decrease requires precipitation values lower than 330 mm/year.

Uncertainty squared: Choosing among multiple input probability distributions and interpreting multiple output probability distributions in Monte Carlo climate risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, P.; Mastrandrea, M.

2006-12-01

Simple probabilistic models which attempt to estimate likely transient temperature change from specified CO2 emissions scenarios must make assumptions about at least six uncertain aspects of the causal chain between emissions and temperature: current radiative forcing (including but not limited to aerosols), current land use emissions, carbon sinks, future non-CO2 forcing, ocean heat uptake, and climate sensitivity. Of these, multiple PDFs (probability density functions) have been published for the climate sensitivity, a couple for current forcing and ocean heat uptake, one for future non-CO2 forcing, and none for current land use emissions or carbon cycle uncertainty (which are interdependent). Different assumptions about these parameters, as well as different model structures, will lead to different estimates of likely temperature increase from the same emissions pathway. Thus policymakers will be faced with a range of temperature probability distributions for the same emissions scenarios, each described by a central tendency and spread. Because our conventional understanding of uncertainty and probability requires that a probabilistically defined variable of interest have only a single mean (or median, or modal) value and a well-defined spread, this "multidimensional" uncertainty defies straightforward utilization in policymaking. We suggest that there are no simple solutions to the questions raised. Crucially, we must dispel the notion that there is a "true" probability probabilities of this type are necessarily subjective, and reasonable people may disagree. Indeed, we suggest that what is at stake is precisely the question, what is it reasonable to believe, and to act as if we believe? As a preliminary suggestion, we demonstrate how the output of a simple probabilistic climate model might be evaluated regarding the reasonableness of the outputs it calculates with different input PDFs. We suggest further that where there is insufficient evidence to clearly favor one range of probabilistic projections over another, that the choice of results on which to base policy must necessarily involve ethical considerations, as they have inevitable consequences for the distribution of risk In particular, the choice to use a more "optimistic" PDF for climate sensitivity (or other components of the causal chain) leads to the allowance of higher emissions consistent with any specified goal for risk reduction, and thus leads to higher climate impacts, in exchange for lower mitigation costs.

Modeling transient luminous events produced by cloud to ground lightning and narrow bipolar pulses: detailed spectra and chemical impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Invernon, F. J.; Luque, A.; Gordillo-Vazquez, F. J.

2017-12-01

The electromagnetic field generated by lightning discharges can produce Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) in the lower ionosphere, as previously investigated by many authors. Some recent studies suggest that narrow bipolar pulses (NBP), an impulsive and not well-established type of atmospheric electrical discharge, could also produce TLEs. The characterization and observation of such TLEs could be a source of information about the physics underlying NBP. In this work, we develop two different electrodynamical models to study the impact of lightning-driven electromagnetic fields in the lower ionosphere. The first model calculates the quasi-electrostatic field produced by a single cloud to ground lightning in the terrestrial atmosphere and its influence in the electron transport. This scheme allows us to study halos, a relatively frequent type of TLE. The second model solves the Maxwell equations for the electromagnetic field produced by a lightning discharge coupled with the Langevin's equation for the induced currents in the ionosphere. This model is useful to investigate elves, a fast TLE produced by lightning or by NBP. In addition, both models are coupled with a detailed chemistry of the electronically and vibrationally excited states of molecular nitrogen, allowing us to calculate synthetic spectra of both halos and elves. The models also include a detailed set of kinetic reactions to calculate the temporal evolution of other species. Our results suggest an important enhancement of some molecular species produced by halos, as NOx , N2 O and other metastable species. The quantification of their production could be useful to understand the role of thunderstorms in the climate of our planet. In the case of TLEs produced by NBP, our model confirms the appearance of double elves and allows us to compute their spectral characteristics.

The Effect of Impacts on the Martian Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colaprete, A.; Haberle, R. M.; Segura, T. L.; Toon, O. B.; Zahnle, K.

2005-01-01

Evidence for the presence of liquid water early in Mars history continues to accumulate. The most recent evidence for liquid water being pervasive early in Mars history is the discoveries of sulfate and gypsum layers by the Mars Exploration Rovers and Mars Express. However, the presence of liquid water at the surface very early in Mars history presents a conundrum. The early sun was most likely approximately 75% fainter than it is today. About 65-70 degrees of greenhouse warming is needed to bring surface temperatures to the melting point of water. To date climate models have not been able to produce a continuously warm and wet early Mars. This may be a good thing as there is morphological and mineralogical evidence that the warm and wet period had to be relatively short and episodic. The rates of erosion appear to correlate with the rate at which Mars was impacted thus an alternate possibility is transient warm and wet conditions initiated by large impacts. It is widely accepted that even relatively small impacts (approximately 10 km) have altered the past climate of Earth to such an extent as to cause mass extinctions. Mars has been impacted with a similar distribution of objects. The impact record at Mars is preserved in the abundance of observable craters on it surface. Impact induced climate change must have occurred on Mars.

Committed warming inferred from observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Pincus, Robert

2017-09-01

Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols and reactive greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9-3.6, 5th-95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9-2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7-1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and the understanding of the limitations of the framework is advanced.

Most robust estimate of the Transient Climate Response yet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Venema, Victor; Schurer, Andrew

2017-04-01

Estimates of the Transient Climate Response often lack a coherent hemispheric or otherwise spatio-temporal representation. In the light of recent work that highlights the importance of inhomogeneous forcing considerations (Shindell et al 2014; Marvel et al 2015) and tas/tos-related inaccuracies (Richardson et al. 2016), here we present results from a well-tested two-box response model that takes these effects carefully into account. All external forcing data are updated based on latest emission estimates as well as recent TSI and volcanic AOD estimates. So are observed GMST data which include data for the entire year of 2016. Hence we also provide one of the first TCR estimates taking the latest El Nino into account. We demonstrate that short-term climate variability is not going to change the TCR estimate beyond very minor fluctuations. The method is therefore shown to be robust within surprisingly small uncertainty estimates. Using PMIP3 and an extended ensemble of HadCM3 simulations (Euro500; Schurer et al. 2014) GCM simulations for the pre-industrial period, we test the fast and slow response time constants that are tailored for observational data (Ripdal 2012). We also test the hemispheric response as well as the response over land and ocean separately. The TCR/ECS ratio is taken from a selected sub-set of CMIP5 simulations. The selection criteria is the best spatiotemporal match over 4 different time periods between 1860 and 2010. We will argue that this procedure should also be standard procedure to estimate ECS from observations, rather than relying on OHC estimates only. Finally, the demonstrate that PMIP3-type simulations that are initialised at least a century before 1850 (as is the standard initialisation for CMIP5-type simulations) are to be preferred. Remaining long-term radiative imbalance due to strong volcanic eruptions (e.g. Gleckler et al. 2006) tend to make CMIP5-type simulations slightly more sensitive to forcing, which leads to detectable stronger warming up until recent day.

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Thermal modelling of Li-ion polymer battery for electric vehicle drive cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacko, Salvio; Chung, Yongmann M.

2012-09-01

Time-dependent, thermal behaviour of a lithium-ion (Li-ion) polymer cell has been modelled for electric vehicle (EV) drive cycles with a view to developing an effective battery thermal management system. The fully coupled, three-dimensional transient electro-thermal model has been implemented based on a finite volume method. To support the numerical study, a high energy density Li-ion polymer pouch cell was tested in a climatic chamber for electric load cycles consisting of various charge and discharge rates, and a good agreement was found between the model predictions and the experimental data. The cell-level thermal behaviour under stressful conditions such as high power draw and high ambient temperature was predicted with the model. A significant temperature increase was observed in the stressful condition, corresponding to a repeated acceleration and deceleration, indicating that an effective battery thermal management system would be required to maintain the optimal cell performance and also to achieve a full battery lifesapn.

FOREWORD: International Conference on Planetary Boundary Layer and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djolov, G.; Esau, I.

2010-05-01

One of the greatest achievements of climate science has been the establisment of the concept of climate change on a multitude of time scales. The Earth's complex climate system does not allow a straightforward interpretation of dependences between the external parameter perturbation, internal stochastic system dynamics and the long-term system response. The latter is usually referred to as climate change in a narrow sense (IPCC, 2007). The focused international conference "Planetary Boundary Layers and Climate Change" has addressed only time scales and dynamical aspects of climate change with possible links to the turbulent processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Although limited, the conference topic is by no means singular. One should clearly understand that the PBL is the layer where 99% of biosphere and human activity are concentrated. The PBL is the layer where the energy fluxes, which are followed by changes in cryosphere and other known feedbacks, are maximized. At the same time, the PBL processes are of a naturally small scale. What is the averaged long-term effect of the small-scale processes on the long-term climate dynamics? Can this effect be recognized in existing long-term paleo-climate data records? Can it be modeled? What is the current status of our theoretical understanding of this effect? What is the sensitivity of the climate model projections to the representation of small-scale processes? Are there significant indirect effects, e.g. through transport of chemical components, of the PBL processes on climate? These and other linked questions have been addressed during the conference. The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as the amount of energy released from the Sun, volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth's orbit have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution such as the addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the composition of the atmosphere. These changes are likely to have influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level (IPCC, 2007). However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging and not yet a solved problem. Africa is vulnerable to climate change as its ability to adaptat and mitigate is considerably dampened (IPCC, 2007). Climate change may impede a nations ability to achieve sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals, and because of that Africa (particularly sub-tropical Africa) will experience increased levels of water stress and reduced agricultural yields of up to 50% by 2020. An example of the scale of the region's vulnerability was demonstrated during the last very dry year (1991/92) when 30% of the southern African population was put on food aid and more than one million people were displaced. Climate change in Africa is essentially dependent on our understanding of the PBL processes both due to the indispensible role of the atmospheric convection in the African climate and due to its tele-connections to other regions, e.g. the tropical Pacific and Indian monsoon regions. Although numerous publications attribute the observed changes to one or another modification of the convective patterns, further progress is impeded by imperfections of the small-scale process parameterizations in the models. The uncertainties include parameter uncertainties of known physical processes, which could be reduced through better observations/modelling, as well as uncertainties in our knowledge of physical processes themselves (or structural uncertainties), which could be reduced only through theoretical development and design of new, original observations/experiments (Oppenheimer et al., Science, 2007). Arguably, the structural uncertainties is hard to reduce and this could be one of the reasons determining slow progress in narrowing the climate model uncertainty range over the last 30 years (Knutti and Hagerl, Nature Geoscience, 2008). One of the most prominent structural uncertainties in the ongoing transient climate change is related to poor understanding and hence incorrect modelling of the turbulent physics and dynamics processes in the planetary boundary layer. Nevertheless, the climate models continue to rely on physically incorrect boundary layer parameterizations (Cuxart et al., BLM, 2006), whose erroneous dynamical response in the climate models may lead to significant abnormalities in simulated climate. At present, international efforts in theoretical understanding of the turbulent mixing have resulted in significant progress in turbulence simulation, measurements and parameterizations. However, this understanding has not yet found its way to the climate research community. Vice versa, climate research is not usually addressed by the boundary layer research community. The gap needs to be closed in order to crucially complete the scientific basis of climate change studies. The focus of the proposed forum could be formulated as follows: The planetary boundary layer determines several key parameters controlling the Earth's climate system but being a dynamic sub-system, just a layer of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere/ocean, it is also controlled by the climate system and its changes. Such a dynamic relationship causes a planetary boundary layer feedback (PBL-feedback) which could be defined as the response of the surface air temperature on changes in the vertical turbulent mixing. The forum participants have discussed both climatological and fluid dynamic aspects of this response, in order to quantify their role in the Earth's transient heat uptake and its representation in climate models. The choice of the forum location and dates are motivated by the role of tropical oceans and convection in the climate system and the prominent demonstration of the climate sensitivity to the ocean heat uptake observed off Cape Town. The international conference responded to the urgent need of advancing our understanding of the complex climate system and development of adequate measures for saving the planet from environmental disaster. It also fits well with the Republic of South African government's major political decision to include the responses to global change/climate change at the very top of science and technology policy. The conference participants are grateful to the Norway Research Council and the National Research Foundation (NRF) RSA who supported the Conference through the project "Analysis and Possibility for Control of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Processes to Facilitate Adaptation to Environmental Changes" realized in the framework of the Programme for Research and Co-operation Phase II between the two countries. Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens, Cape Town contribution of securing one of the most beautiful Conference venues in the world and technical support is also highly appreciated. G. Djolov and I. Esau Editors Conference_Photo Conference Organising Comittee Djolov, G.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Esau, I.NorwayNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Hewitson, B.South AfricaUniversity of Cape Town McGregor, J.AustraliaCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Midgley, G.South AfricaSouth African National Botanical Institute Mphepya, J.South AfricaSouth African Weather Service Piketh, S.South AfricaUniversity of the Witwatersrand Pielke, R.USAUniversity of Colorado, Boulder Pienaar, K.South AfricaUniversity of the North West Rautenbach, H.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Zilitinkevich, S.FinlandUniversity of Helsinki The conference was organized by: University of Pretoria Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center With support and sponsorship from: Norwegian Research Council (grant N 197649) Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens

Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandru, Adelina

2018-03-01

Changes in the essential climate extremes indices and surface variables for the end of the twenty-first century are assessed in this study based on two transient climate change simulations, with and without land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), but identical atmospheric forcing. The two simulations are performed with the 5th generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the Canadian Earth System Model for the (2006-2100)-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. For the simulation with LULCC, land-cover data sets are taken from the global change assessment model (GCAM) representing the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2006-2100. LULCC in RCP4.5 scenario suggest significant reduction in cultivated land (e.g. Canadian Prairies and Mississippi basin) due to afforestation. CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming by the end of the twenty-first century, especially over the northern regions in winter. CRCM5 projects more warm spell-days per year over most areas of the continent, and implicitly more summer days and tropical nights at the expense of cold-spell, frost and ice days whose number is projected to decrease by up to 40% by the end of the twenty-first century with respect to the baseline period 1971-2000. Most land areas north of 45°N, in all seasons, as well as the southeastern United States in summer, exhibit increases in mean precipitation under the RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, central parts of the continent in summer and much of Mexico in all seasons show reduced precipitation. In addition, large areas of North America exhibit changes of 10 to 40% (depending on the season and geographical location) in the number of heavy precipitation days. Results also suggest that the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on climate, assessed through differences between the two simulations, lead to warmer regional climates, especially in winter. The investigation of processes leading to this response shows high sensitivity of the results to changes in albedo as a response to LULCC. Overall, at the seasonal scale, results show that intense afforestation may contribute to an additional 25% of projected changes.

Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2012-07-01

The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP) is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP) climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period. In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this time period. Further agreement between data and model results was found for the uplands of North America and Southern Europe, where grassland along with warm and dry climates were simulated. However, our model simulated vegetation changes in South and North America that were much smaller than reconstructed. Along the west and east coast of North America we simulated drier vegetation than the pollen records suggest.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

PubMed

Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

2016-02-01

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated Hydrologic Models for Closing the Water Budget: Whitewater River Basin, Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beeson, P.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.; Panday, S.

2004-12-01

Groundwater and its recharge are unobserved and unmeasured components of the water cycle of a river basin. The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate the groundwater component of the water balance for the Whitewater River Basin using a 3-D saturated groundwater model, 2) to compare the groundwater model results with a fully integrated hydrologic model and, 3) to describe the spectral frequency response of the basin to long-term climate forcing. The basin is the Whitewater River, near Wichita, Kansas. The basin has an area of 1,100 square-kilometers, an elevation range of 380 - 470m (amsl), and an average annual precipitation of 858 millimeters. The near-surface geology is comprised of a weathered shale overlying limestone bedrock of Mississippian age. Streamflow and weather records are available from 1960. A steady-state saturated groundwater model (MODFLOW) was implemented assuming a simple two-layer conceptual model. A total of 422 wells with static water levels were available. Using a subset of the wells, a steady-state calibration of MODFLOW was performed by adjusting permeability between the two layers. Steady-state calibration resulted in an R2 of 0.89 for predicted and observed water levels. The remaining wells were used for validation, with an R2 of 0.92. The next step constructed the transient model using a fixed percentage of rainfall as groundwater recharge. For a single observation well the R2 was 0.89 (observed vs. predicted) for the transient calibration and 0.77 for the validation for a year simulation. The final step was to compare MODFLOW to an integrated model to provide a more complete representation of surface hydrologic dynamics. Here MODHMS (developed by HydroGeologic Inc, Herndon, VA) was used since it is MODFLOW-based with 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow, 2D overland flow, and 1D channel flow. MODHMS allows for canopy interception and evapotranspiration so total precipitation and potential evaporation were input to the model for a better estimate of recharge through complete energy and water balance. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) was used to analyze the temporal response of precipitation, streamflow and groundwater levels from selected points in the model both for MODFLOW and MODHMS results. This paper demonstrates the use of integrated models for determination of groundwater recharge. Time series analysis proved to be a useful tool in identifying climate response within the watershed.

Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödiger, Tino; Magri, Fabien; Geyer, Stefan; Morandage, Shehan Tharaka; Ali Subah, H. E.; Alraggad, Marwan; Siebert, Christian

2017-11-01

Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country's second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate's exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.

Long-term human response to uncertain environmental conditions in the Andes

PubMed Central

Dillehay, Tom D.; Kolata, Alan L.

2004-01-01

Human interaction with the physical environment has increasingly transformed Earth-system processes. Reciprocally, climate anomalies and other processes of environmental change of natural and anthropogenic origin have been affecting, and often disrupting, societies throughout history. Transient impact events, despite their brevity, can have significant long-term impact on society, particularly if they occur in the context of ongoing, protracted environmental change. Major climate events can affect human activities in critical conjunctures that shape particular trajectories of social development. Here we report variable human responses to major environmental events in the Andes with a particular emphasis on the period from anno Domini 500–1500 on the desert north coast of Perú. We show that preindustrial agrarian societies implemented distinct forms of anticipatory response to environmental change and uncertainty. We conclude that innovations in production strategies and agricultural infrastructures in these indigenous societies reflect differential social response to both transient (El Niño–Southern Oscillation events) and protracted (desertification) environmental change. PMID:15024122

Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point andmore » the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.« less

Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

Production and Uses of Multi-Decade Geodetic Earth Science Data Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.; Kedar, S.; Moore, A. W.; Fang, P.; Liu, Z.; Sullivan, A.; Argus, D. F.; Jiang, S.; Marshall, S. T.

2017-12-01

The Solid Earth Science ESDR System (SESES) project funded under the NASA MEaSUREs program produces and disseminates mature, long-term, calibrated and validated, GNSS based Earth Science Data Records (ESDRs) that encompass multiple diverse areas of interest in Earth Science, such as tectonic motion, transient slip and earthquake dynamics, as well as meteorology, climate, and hydrology. The ESDRs now span twenty-five years for the earliest stations and today are available for thousands of global and regional stations. Using a unified metadata database and a combination of GNSS solutions generated by two independent analysis centers, the project currently produces four long-term ESDR's: Geodetic Displacement Time Series: Daily, combined, cleaned and filtered, GIPSY and GAMIT long-term time series of continuous GPS station positions (global and regional) in the latest version of ITRF, automatically updated weekly. Geodetic Velocities: Weekly updated velocity field + velocity field histories in various reference frames; compendium of all model parameters including earthquake catalog, coseismic offsets, and postseismic model parameters (exponential or logarithmic). Troposphere Delay Time Series: Long-term time series of troposphere delay (30-min resolution) at geodetic stations, necessarily estimated during position time series production and automatically updated weekly. Seismogeodetic records for historic earthquakes: High-rate broadband displacement and seismic velocity time series combining 1 Hz GPS displacements and 100 Hz accelerometer data for select large earthquakes and collocated cGPS and seismic instruments from regional networks. We present several recent notable examples of the ESDR's usage: A transient slip study that uses the combined position time series to unravel "tremor-less" slow tectonic transient events. Fault geometry determination from geodetic slip rates. Changes in water resources across California's physiographic provinces at a spatial resolution of 75 km. Retrospective study of a southern California summer monsoon event.

How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

2015-12-01

Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

Rapid ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Rasmussen, Sune; Hutchinson, David; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel

2017-04-01

Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late last glacial period (60,000 to 11,703 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with cooling in the north leading the onset of warming in the south. Some events, however, appear to have occurred independently of changes in deep water formation but still have a southern expression, implying that an alternative mechanism may have driven some global climatic changes during the glacial. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with correlating terrestrial, marine and ice core records of abrupt change. Here we exploit a bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate datasets spanning 28,400 to 30,400 years ago. We observe no divergence between terrestrial and marine 14C datasets implying limited impact of freshwater hosing on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, an ice-rafted debris event (SA2) in Southern Ocean waters appears to be associated with dramatic synchronous warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Using a fully coupled climate system model we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations and find that a southern salinity anomaly can trigger low-latitude temperature changes through barotropic and baroclinic oceanic waves that are atmospherically propagated globally via a Rossby wave train, consistent with contemporary modelling studies. Our results suggest the Antarctic ice sheets and Southern Ocean dynamics may have contributed to some global climatic changes through rapid ocean-atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for past (and future) change.

Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land use data, these results are compared to the equivalent investigations performed in CMIP5 with the CLM4/CESM1 model. We find the role of land use and land cover change in a changing climate is strongly dependent on both of these.

Impact of a 1.5 °C Global Temperature Rise on the Glaciers of High Mountain Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Lutz, A. F.; Bierkens, M. F.; Immerzeel, W. W.

2017-12-01

Glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA) play a substantial role in regional water resources. In general, these glaciers have been retreating and losing mass over the last decades, a trend that is most likely to persist under future temperature rise. At the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, 195 nations signed the "Paris Agreement" and agreed on efforts to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. It is unknown, however, how much of Asia's ice mass will be lost under a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, or under more extreme temperature scenarios. To estimate this, we use a mass balance gradient glacier model including mass redistribution for all individual glaciers in HMA larger than 0.4 km2. The model was run transiently up to 2100 using climate change scenarios from the full CMIP5 climate model ensemble, and a Monte Carlo framework was implemented to account for parameter uncertainty. Results show that only a handful of the climate models project a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C, and that under such a scenario HMA warms stronger than the global mean (2.1±0.1 °C). By the end of the 21st century, the 1.5 °C scenario results in a 36±7% mass loss relative to the estimated present day ice mass in HMA of 4754±350 Gt. Mass losses projected by RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 model ensembles are considerably higher with 49±7%, 51±6% and 65±6%, respectively. Results also show large regional differences in mass loss, which are primarily caused by regional differences in debris cover, ice mass, observed mass balance, and glacier sensitivity to climate perturbations. We conclude that even under the ambitious 1.5 °C scenario over one third of HMA's glacier mass will be lost by the end of century, and that the difference with more likely scenarios is large. The 1.5 °C target is a task of a dimension that the world has never seen before, but it might prove to be very important for the fate of the glaciers and for water resources in the region.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; ...

2017-04-24

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin

2015-05-15

Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The high resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved P-E change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of P-E changes. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence intomore » thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-04-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Erick; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

The Effect of Impacts on the Early Martian Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colaprete, A.; Haberle, R. M.; Segura, T. L.; Toon, O. B.; Zahnle, K.

2004-01-01

The first images returned by the Mariner 7 spacecraft of the Martian surface showed a landscape heavily scared by impacts. Mariner 9 imaging revealed geomorphic features including valley networks and outflow channels that suggest liquid water once flowed at the surface of Mars. Further evidence for water erosion and surface modification has come from the Viking Spacecraft, Mars Pathfinder, Mars Global Surveyor's (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), and Mars Odyssey's THEMIS instrument. In addition to network channels, this evidence includes apparent paleolake beds, fluvial fans and sedimentary layers. The estimated erosion rates necessary to explain the observed surface morphologies present a conundrum. The rates of erosion appear to be highest when the early sun was fainter and only 75% as luminous as it is today. All of this evidence points to a very different climate than what exists on Mars today. The most popular paradigm for the formation of the valley networks is that Mars had at one time a warm (T average > 273), wetter and stable climate. Possible warming mechanisms have included increased surface pressures, carbon dioxide clouds and trace greenhouse gasses. Yet to date climate models have not been able to produce a continuously warm and wet early Mars. The rates of erosion appear to correlate with the rate at which Mars was impacted thus an alternate possibility is transient warm and wet conditions initiated by large impacts. It is widely accepted that even relatively small impacts (approx. 10 km) have altered the past climate of Earth to such an extent as to cause mass extinctions. Mars has been impacted with a similar distribution of objects. The impact record at Mars is preserved in the abundance of observable craters on it surface. Impact induced climate change must have occurred on Mars.

Climatic control of bedrock river incision.

PubMed

Ferrier, Ken L; Huppert, Kimberly L; Perron, J Taylor

2013-04-11

Bedrock river incision drives the development of much of Earth's surface topography, and thereby shapes the structure of mountain belts and modulates Earth's habitability through its effects on soil erosion, nutrient fluxes and global climate. Although it has long been expected that river incision rates should depend strongly on precipitation rates, quantifying the effects of precipitation rates on bedrock river incision rates has proved difficult, partly because river incision rates are difficult to measure and partly because non-climatic factors can obscure climatic effects at sites where river incision rates have been measured. Here we present measurements of river incision rates across one of Earth's steepest rainfall gradients, which show that precipitation rates do indeed influence long-term bedrock river incision rates. We apply a widely used empirical law for bedrock river incision to a series of rivers on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i, where mean annual precipitation ranges from 0.5 metres to 9.5 metres (ref. 12)-over 70 per cent of the global range-and river incision rates averaged over millions of years can be inferred from the depth of river canyons and the age of the volcanic bedrock. Both a time-averaged analysis and numerical modelling of transient river incision reveal that the long-term efficiency of bedrock river incision across Kaua'i is positively correlated with upstream-averaged mean annual precipitation rates. We provide theoretical context for this result by demonstrating that our measurements are consistent with a linear dependence of river incision rates on stream power, the rate of energy expenditure by the flow on the riverbed. These observations provide rare empirical evidence for the long-proposed coupling between climate and river incision, suggesting that previously proposed feedbacks among topography, climate and tectonics may occur.

Testing the Reconstruction Potential for North Pacific Circulation Anomalies inside the TraCE-21ka Paleoclimate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elison Timm, O.; Flamholtz, W. M.; Li, S.; Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study was sparked by the idea that paleoclimate temperature and precipitation proxies provide sufficient information to make inferences about extratropical atmospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific during the Holocene. Typical targets for the circulation reconstruction problem include the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and the storm tracks. The reconstruction problem was investigated under idealized conditions using model simulation results from the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/TraCE/), which covers the Last Glacial Maximum to present. It is demonstrated that modes of variability found on interannual to multidecadal timescales during the preindustrial era provide inadequate pattern for reconstructing long-term mean changes during the past 22,000 years. Our circulation reconstruction target was the geopotential height field at 500hPa (Z500) over the North Pacific Ocean during winter. We applied a field reconstruction method using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). The MCA was applied to Z500 and surface temperatures as predictor information. The MCA was given model data containing interannual to multidecadal variability from the pre-industrial climate (1000BP-900BP). We worked with ten leading MCA modes in the reconstruction, which can reproduce about 90% of the covariability during the preindustrial period. Within the model simulation, we validated the field reconstructions against the model's circulation states over the last 22,000 years. Spatial skill scores show that the reconstruction skill drops significantly prior to the late Holocene. Reasons for the loss of reconstruction skill are due to the fact that externally forced climate changes do not resemble the internal modes of variability and that covariance between circulation and temperatures on interannual-multidecadal time scales changes with the background climate state. However, the reconstruction can be improved by including data from the early Holocene and the LGM era in the MCA. Based on these results, we advocate that paleoclimate model simulation results should be used define a set of first-guess pattern for the reconstruction of circulation anomalies from sparse and noisy proxy data.

Modeling and Control Systems Design for Air Intake System of Diesel Engines for Improvement of Transient Characteristic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ejiri, Arata; Sasaki, Jun; Kinoshita, Yusuke; Fujimoto, Junya; Maruyama, Tsugito; Shimotani, Keiji

For the purpose of contributing to global environment protection, several research studies have been conducted involving clean-burning diesel engines. In recent diesel engines with Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) systems and a Variable Nozzle Turbocharger (VNT), mutual interference between EGR and VNT has been noted. Hence, designing and adjusting control of the conventional PID controller is particularly difficult at the transient state in which the engine speed and fuel injection rate change. In this paper, we formulate 1st principal model of air intake system of diesel engines and transform it to control oriented model including an engine steady state model and a transient model. And we propose a model-based control system with the LQR Controller, Saturation Compensator, the Dynamic Feed-forward and Disturbance Observer using a transient model. Using this method, we achieved precise reference tracking and emission reduction in transient mode test with the real engine evaluations.

Rapid Late Holocene glacier fluctuations reconstructed from South Georgia lake sediments using novel analytical and numerical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, Willem; Bakke, Jostein; Werner, Johannes; Paasche, Øyvind; Rosqvist, Gunhild

2016-04-01

The collapse of ice shelves, rapidly retreating glaciers and a dramatic recent temperature increase show that Southern Ocean climate is rapidly shifting. Also, instrumental and modelling data demonstrate transient interactions between oceanic and atmospheric forcings as well as climatic teleconnections with lower-latitude regions. Yet beyond the instrumental period, a lack of proxy climate timeseries impedes our understanding of Southern Ocean climate. Also, available records often lack the resolution and chronological control required to resolve rapid climate shifts like those observed at present. Alpine glaciers are found on most Southern Ocean islands and quickly respond to shifts in climate through changes in mass balance. Attendant changes in glacier size drive variations in the production of rock flour, the suspended product of glacial erosion. This climate response may be captured by downstream distal glacier-fed lakes, continuously recording glacier history. Sediment records from such lakes are considered prime sources for paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present the first reconstruction of Late Holocene glacier variability from the island of South Georgia. Using a toolbox of advanced physical, geochemical (XRF) and magnetic proxies, in combination with state-of-the-art numerical techniques, we fingerprinted a glacier signal from glacier-fed lake sediments. This lacustrine sediment signal was subsequently calibrated against mapped glacier extent with the help of geomorphological moraine evidence and remote sensing techniques. The outlined approach enabled us to robustly resolve variations of a complex glacier at sub-centennial timescales, while constraining the sedimentological imprint of other geomorphic catchment processes. From a paleoclimate perspective, our reconstruction reveals a dynamic Late Holocene climate, modulated by long-term shifts in regional circulation patterns. We also find evidence for rapid medieval glacier retreat as well as a synchronous bi-polar Little Ice Age (LIA). In conclusion, our work shows the potential of novel analytical and numerical tools to improve the robustness and resolution of lake sediment-based paleoclimate reconstructions beyond the current state-of-the-art.

Global radiative adjustment after a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drijfhout, Sybren S.

2015-10-01

The transient climate response to a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is analysed from the difference between two ensembles of climate model simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM, one with hosing and the other without hosing. The primary effect of the collapse is to redistribute heat over the two hemispheres. However, Northern Hemisphere sea ice increase in response to the AMOC collapse induces a hemisphere-wide cooling, amplified by atmospheric feedbacks, in particular water vapour. The Southern Hemisphere warming is governed by slower processes. After 25 years the global cooling peaks. Thereafter, the response is characterised by a gradual readjustment of global mean temperature. During the AMOC collapse a downward radiation anomaly arises at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), heating the earth's surface. The net downward radiation anomaly at TOA arises from reduced longwave emission by the atmosphere, overcompensating the increased net upward anomalies in shortwave and longwave radiation at the surface. This radiation anomaly is associated with net ocean heat uptake: cooling of the overlying atmosphere results from reduced ocean heat release through the increase of sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The change in energy flow arises from the reduction in latent and sensible heat flux, which dominate the surface radiation budget. Similar experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity reveal a stronger shortwave response that acts to reduce the net downward radiation anomaly at TOA. The net shortwave and longwave radiation anomalies at TOA always decrease during the first 100 years after the AMOC collapse, but in the intermediate complexity model this is associated with a sign change after 90 years when the net radiation anomaly at TOA becomes upward, accompanied by net ocean heat loss. After several hundred years the longwave and shortwave anomalies increase again, while the net residual at TOA remains small. This radiative adjustment is associated with the transition to a colder climate.

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and numeric examples

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiqi; Shi, Zheng; Lu, Xingjie; ...

2016-09-16

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since preindustrial era, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling, experimental, and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under climate change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production,more » NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Furthermore, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can exactly replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. Moreover, the emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. We also propose that the C storage potential be the targeted variable for research, market trading, and government negotiation for C credits.« less

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and numeric examples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi; Shi, Zheng; Lu, Xingjie

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since preindustrial era, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling, experimental, and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under climate change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production,more » NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Furthermore, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can exactly replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. Moreover, the emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. We also propose that the C storage potential be the targeted variable for research, market trading, and government negotiation for C credits.« less

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE PAGES

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

2017-06-28

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO 2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models frommore » the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Here, our results suggest that cumulative CO 2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.« less

Vegetation and land carbon feedbacks in the high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the MPI Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas

2017-04-01

Plants influence climate through changes in the land surface biophysics (albedo, transpiration) and concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases. One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon due to productivity decrease. This decadal- scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader1, Sebastian Bathiany2, Victor Brovkin1, Martin Claussen1,3, Traute Crüger1, Roberta D'agostino1, Anne Dallmeyer1, Sabine Egerer1, Vivienne Groner1, Matthias Heinze1, Tatiana Ilyina1, Johann Jungclaus1, Thomas Kleinen1, Alexander Lemburg1, Stephan Lorenz1, Thomas Raddatz1, Hauke Schmidt1, Gerhard Schmiedl3, Bjorn Stevens1, Claudia Timmreck1, Matthew Toohey4 1Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, D 2Wageningen University, NL 3CEN, Universität Hamburg, D 4GEOMAR Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, D

Predictions and Tests of the "Late Noachian Icy Highlands" Climate Model: Can Evidence for Fluvial/Lacustrine Systems Be Reconciled?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2016-12-01

Improved 3D global simulations (GCMs) of the early martian climate have found that for atmospheric pressures greater than a fraction of a bar, atmospheric-surface thermal coupling occurs and the adiabatic cooling effect (ACE) causes temperatures in the southern uplands to fall significantly below the global average. Long-term climate evolution simulations indicate that in these circumstances, water ice is transported to the highlands from low-lying regions for a wide range of obliquities. Conditions are too cold (MAT 225 K) to permit the presence of long-term surface liquid water, including streams, lakes and oceans. The LNIH equilibrium state predicts: 1) a global permafrost layer, 2) a horizontally stratified hydrological cycle/system, 3) thick ice deposits in the southern uplands, 4) an extended water ice cap on the southern pole, and 5) no rainfall, streams lakes or oceans. The majority of these predictions are in direct conflict with the observed fluvial/lacustrine geologic record. Can non-equilibrium conditions in a LNIH scenario explain these conflicts by transient heating and melting of the LNIH? As steps in the comprehensive testing of this "Late Noachian Icy Highlands" (LNIH) model we explore the predictions for geologic settings and processes in both equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate states. We assess the following sources of disequilibrium: 1) Top-down heating and melting: a) impact cratering, b) extrusive/explosive volcanism, and c) short-term emission of greenhouse gases. 2) Bottom up heating and melting: a) enhanced regional-global geothermal gradients, and b) thick ice accumulation to cause/sustain basal melting, wet-based glaciation and runoff. We assess these disequilibrium mechanisms in terms of: 1) the altitude dependence of melting, 2) melting duration, 3) volumes of meltwater produced, 4) predicted locations of meltwater production, and 6) comparison to the distribution of fluvial/lacustrine features. We find that the Late Noachian Icy Highlands climate model cannot be reconciled with observations unless punctuated non-equilibrium conditions occur. We show that the best candidates for LNIH disequilibrium conditions involve top-down heating and melting conditions chronologically summing in duration to more than tens of thousands to millions of years.

Floodplain rehabilitation as a hedge against hydroclimatic uncertainty in a migration corridor of threatened steelhead.

PubMed

Boughton, David A; Pike, Andrew S

2013-12-01

A strategy for recovering endangered species during climate change is to restore ecosystem processes that moderate effects of climate shifts. In mid-latitudes, storm patterns may shift their intensity, duration, and frequency. These shifts threaten flooding in human communities and reduce migration windows (conditions suitable for migration after a storm) for fish. Rehabilitation of historic floodplains can in principle reduce these threats via transient storage of storm water, but no one has quantified the benefit of floodplain rehabilitation for migrating fish, a widespread biota with conservation and economic value. We used simple models to quantify migration opportunity for a threatened migratory fish, steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), in an episodic rain-fed river system, the Pajaro River in central California. We combined flow models, bioenergetic models, and existing climate projections to estimate the sensitivity of migration windows to altered storm patterns under alternate scenarios of floodplain rehabilitation. Generally, migration opportunities were insensitive to warming, weakly sensitive to duration or intensity of storms, and proportionately sensitive to frequency of storms. The rehabilitation strategy expanded migration windows by 16-28% regardless of climate outcomes. Warmer conditions raised the energy cost of migrating, but not enough to matter biologically. Novel findings were that fewer storms appeared to pose a bigger threat to migrating steelhead than warmer or smaller storms and that floodplain rehabilitation lessened the risk from fewer or smaller storms across all plausible hydroclimatic outcomes. It follows that statistical downscaling methods may mischaracterize risk, depending on how they resolve overall precipitation shifts into changes of storm frequency as opposed to storm size. Moreover, anticipating effects of climate shifts that are irreducibly uncertain (here, rainfall) may be more important than anticipating effects of relatively predictable changes such as warming. This highlights a need to credibly identify strategies of ecosystem rehabilitation that are robust to uncertainty. Rehabilitación de Planicies Inundables como Cerco contra la Incertidumbre Hidroclimática en un Corredor Migratorio de Oncorhynchus mykiss, Especie Amenazada. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Highlights of Transient Plume Impingement Model Validation and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woronowicz, Michael

2011-01-01

This paper describes highlights of an ongoing validation effort conducted to assess the viability of applying a set of analytic point source transient free molecule equations to model behavior ranging from molecular effusion to rocket plumes. The validation effort includes encouraging comparisons to both steady and transient studies involving experimental data and direct simulation Monte Carlo results. Finally, this model is applied to describe features of two exotic transient scenarios involving NASA Goddard Space Flight Center satellite programs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staten, Paul; Reichler, Thomas; Lu, Jian

Tropospheric circulation shifts have strong potential to impact surface climate. But the magnitude of these shifts in a changing climate, and the attending regional hydrological changes, are difficult to project. Part of this difficulty arises from our lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the circulation shifts themselves. In order to better delineate circulation shifts and their respective causes, we decompose the circulation response into (1) the "direct" response to radiative forcings themselves, and (2) the "indirect" response to changing sea surface temperatures. Using ensembles of 90-day climate model simulations with immediate switch-on forcings, including perturbed greenhouse gas concentrations,more » stratospheric ozone concentrations, and sea surface temperatures, we document the direct and indirect transient responses of the zonal mean general circulation, and investigate the roles of previously proposed mechanisms in shifting the midlatitude jet. We find that both the direct and indirect wind responses often begin in the lower stratosphere. Changes in midlatitude eddies are ubiquitous and synchronous with the midlatitude zonal wind response. Shifts in the critical latitude of wave absorption on either flank of the jet are not indicted as primary factors for the poleward shifting jet, although we see some evidence for increasing equatorward wave reflection over the southern hemisphere in response to sea surface warming. Mechanisms for the northern hemisphere jet shift are less clear.« less

Deacclimation may be crucial for winter survival of cereals under warming climate.

PubMed

Rapacz, Marcin; Jurczyk, Barbara; Sasal, Monika

2017-03-01

Climate warming can change the winter weather patterns. Warmer temperatures during winter result in a lower risk of extreme freezing events. On the other hand the predicted warm gaps during winter will decrease their freezing tolerance. Both contradict effects will affect winter survival but their resultant effect is unclear. In this paper, we demonstrate that climate warming may result in a decrease in winter survival of plants. A field study of winterhardiness of common wheat and triticale was established at 11 locations and repeated during three subsequent winters. The freezing tolerance of the plants was studied after controlled cold acclimation and de-acclimation using both plant survival analysis and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. Cold deacclimation resistance was shown to be independent from cold acclimation ability. Further, cold deacclimation resistance appeared to be crucial for overwintering when deacclimation conditions occurred in the field. The shortening of uninterrupted cold acclimation may increase cold deacclimation efficiency, which could threaten plant survival during warmer winters. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence transient showed some differences triggered by freezing before and after deacclimation. We conclude that cold deacclimation resistance should be considered in the breeding of winter cereals and in future models of winter damage risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical Models of Optical Transients. I. A Broad Exploration of the Duration-Luminosity Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villar, V. Ashley; Berger, Edo; Metzger, Brian D.; Guillochon, James

2017-11-01

The duration-luminosity phase space (DLPS) of optical transients is used, mostly heuristically, to compare various classes of transient events, to explore the origin of new transients, and to influence optical survey observing strategies. For example, several observational searches have been guided by intriguing voids and gaps in this phase space. However, we should ask, do we expect to find transients in these voids given our understanding of the various heating sources operating in astrophysical transients? In this work, we explore a broad range of theoretical models and empirical relations to generate optical light curves and to populate the DLPS. We explore transients powered by adiabatic expansion, radioactive decay, magnetar spin-down, and circumstellar interaction. For each heating source, we provide a concise summary of the basic physical processes, a physically motivated choice of model parameter ranges, an overall summary of the resulting light curves and their occupied range in the DLPS, and how the various model input parameters affect the light curves. We specifically explore the key voids discussed in the literature: the intermediate-luminosity gap between classical novae and supernovae, and short-duration transients (≲ 10 days). We find that few physical models lead to transients that occupy these voids. Moreover, we find that only relativistic expansion can produce fast and luminous transients, while for all other heating sources events with durations ≲ 10 days are dim ({M}{{R}}≳ -15 mag). Finally, we explore the detection potential of optical surveys (e.g., Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) in the DLPS and quantify the notion that short-duration and dim transients are exponentially more difficult to discover in untargeted surveys.

Hospital visits for gastrointestinal Illness after a major water main break in 2010

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Aim Water main breaks can occur due to the stresses of an aging infrastructure and changing climate. Water main breaks are a public health concern because they can cause pressure transients (specifically, abrupt decreases in water pressure/flow in the pipeline), which ...

Circuit transients due to negative bias arcs-II. [on solar cell power systems in low earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metz, R. N.

1986-01-01

Two new models of negative-bias arcing on a solar cell power system in Low Earth Orbit are presented. One is an extended, analytical model and the other is a non-linear, numerical model. The models are based on an earlier analytical model in which the interactions between solar cell interconnects and the space plasma as well as the parameters of the power circuit are approximated linearly. Transient voltages due to arcs struck at the negative thermal of the solar panel are calculated in the time domain. The new models treat, respectively, further linear effects within the solar panel load circuit and non-linear effects associated with the plasma interactions. Results of computer calculations with the models show common-mode voltage transients of the electrically floating solar panel struck by an arc comparable to the early model but load transients that differ substantially from the early model. In particular, load transients of the non-linear model can be more than twice as great as those of the early model and more than twenty times as great as the extended, linear model.

On transient rheology and glacial isostasy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuen, David A.; Sabadini, Roberto C. A.; Gasperini, Paolo; Boschi, Enzo

1986-01-01

The effect of transient creep on the inference of long-term mantle viscosity is investigated using theoretical predictions from self-gravitating, layered earth models with Maxwell, Burgers' body, and standard linear solid rheologies. The interaction between transient and steady-state rheologies is studied. The responses of the standard linear solid and Burgers' body models to transient creep in the entire mantle, and of the Burgers' body and Maxwell models to creep in the lower mantle are described. The models' responses are examined in terms of the surface displacement, free air gravity anomaly, wander of the rotation pole, and the secular variation of the degree 2 zonal coefficient of the earth's gravitational potential field. The data reveal that transient creep cannot operate throughout the entire mantle.

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

PubMed Central

Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

PubMed

Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

Climate Modeling at the Austrian Weather Service (ZAMG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, C.; Anders, I.; Auer, I.

2009-05-01

In later 2007 the Austrian Weather Service (ZAMG) established a group that shall deal with climate change modeling. Two of the group's main goals are to provide climate change scenarios for the assessment of the impact on ecosystems and to reconstruct past climate states along with their change. The former aim is to derive estimates of might happen to our ecosystems under different emission-pathways, whilst the latter goal is to better understand what has caused characteristical changes, which are to be found in proxies. Both aims can be achieved by empirical or dynamical downscaling models, which are ultimately based on the reliability of the driving GCMs results. It is well known that empirical and dynamical downscaling models do have advantages and disadvantages, which are different. As such it appears reasonable to use the approach which is better adapted to the considered question. It may be meaningful to apply empirical downscaling if long periods of time (such as substantial parts of the Holocene) are in the center of attention, whereas dynamical downscaling may be better suited to address questions that are related to decades. Up to now we were more involved with empirical downscaling that helped us to work together with scientists assessing the impact on ecosystems, as for instance, fish in a river (Matulla et al. 2007), forests (Lexer et al. 2002) or phenological phases (Scheifinger et al. 2007). After catching a glimpse of those results, we will turn to dynamical modeling. Here we would like to present findings from case studies, which are related to the more recent past. Our next target is the modelling of possible future climate conditions within the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, see e.g. Auer et al. 2007) as well as some characteristical periods throughout the Holocene as for instance the 8.2k event. This event is to be found in a variety of proxies within and also outside GAR. Auer I., Boehm R., Jurkovic A., Lipa W., Orlik A., Potzmann R., Schoener W., Ungersboeck M., Matulla C., Briffa K., Jones P. D., Efthymiadis D., Brunetti M., Nanni T., Maugeri M., Mercalli L., Mestre O., Moisselin J.-M., Begert M., Müller-Westermeier G., Kveton V., Bochnicek O., Stastny P., Lapin M., Szalai S., Szentimrey T., Cegnar T., Dolinar M., Gajic-Capka M., Zaninovic K., Majstorovic Z., Nieplova E., 2007. HISTALP - Historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the greater Alpine region 1760-2003. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 17-46 Lexer M.J., Hoenninger K., Scheifinger H., Matulla C., Groll N., Kromp-Kolb H., Schaudauer K., Starlinger F., Englisch M. (2002): The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climate change: a large-scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest inventory data. Forest Ecology and Management, 162, 53-72 Matulla, C., S. Schmutz, A. Melcher, T. Gerersdorfer and P. Haas, 2007: Climatic Change impact on fish fauna for an Inner-Alpine River based on a transient AOGCM simulation, International Journal of Biometeorology, 52(2), 127-137 Scheifinger H., C. Matulla, P. Cate, A. Kahrer, E. Koch, 2007: Climate impact on plant and insect phenology in Austria (http://epub.oeaw.ac.at/3966-9inhalt).

A 3D thermal model to analyze the temperature changes of digits during cold stress and predict the danger of frostbite in human fingers.

PubMed

Fallahi, Amir; Reza Salimpour, Mohammad; Shirani, Ebrahim

2017-04-01

The existing computational models of frostbite injury are limited to one and two dimensional schemes. In this study, a coupled thermo-fluid model is applied to simulate a finger exposed to cold weather. The spatial variability of finger-tip temperature is compared to experimental ones to validate the model. A semi-realistic 3D model for tissue and blood vessels is used to analyze the transient heat transfer through the finger. The effect of heat conduction, metabolic heat generation, heat transport by blood perfusion, heat exchange between tissues and large vessels are considered in energy balance equations. The current model was then tested in different temperatures and air speeds to predict the danger of frostbite in humans for different gloves. Two prevalent gloves which are commonly used in cold climate are considered for investigation. The endurance time and the fraction of necrotic tissues are two main factors suggested for obtaining the response of digit tissues to different environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Regional Scale Deforestation in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, P.; Montenegro, A.; Beltrami, H.; Eby, M.

2011-12-01

Forests play a key role in influencing the Earths climate and at the same time are affected by changing climates. At this point it is estimated that 15-30% of Earths natural forests have already been converted to pasture or cropland. With such large amounts of forest being converted to cropland and grassland, it is important to determine the climatic effects of these actions. To date, most modelling efforts towards understanding the climatic effects of deforestation have simulated global deforestation or have been based on experiments where trees were removed from large areas, i.e. the entire Amazon or all forests above 50 N. Here we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate model which contains a fully coupled carbon cycle, to evaluate the response to deforestation of 10%, 25%, 50% and 100% of the forested areas in three latitude bands: high (above 50°N), mid (above ± 30°) and low (between ± 30°). All simulations were transient simulations, allowing for changes to atmospheric forcings following the A2 emissions scenario. High latitude deforestation lead to cooling (-.05 °C to -0.45 °C) and increase in soil carbon (0.5 to 3 x 1014 kg) for all fractions of deforestation. Due in part to the increase in soil carbon, there was a decrease in atmospheric CO2 in the 50% (-20 ppm) and 100% (-60 ppm) high-latitude deforestation simulations. Low-latitude deforestation initially produced warming in all scenarios (0.1 to 0.25 °C), although all were colder (-0.05 to -0.1 °C) than the control by the end of the simulation. Atmospheric CO2 increased in all simulations (40 to 80 ppm), as well as soil carbon (2 to 16 x 1013 kg). Mid-latitude deforestation also lead to initial warming (0.01 to 0.1 °C) followed by cooling (-0.01 to -0.1 °C). Mid latitude deforestation also produced an increase in soil carbon (2 to 10 x 1013 kg), and atmospheric CO2 (0 to 25ppm). In all three latitude bands forest dieback was observed. Results range from 7% to 37% for high latitudes, 21% to 40% for mid latitudes and 36% to 70% in low latitudes.

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

Modelling trends in tropical column ozone with the UKCA chemistry-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeble, James; Bednarz, Ewa; Banerjee, Antara; Abraham, Luke; Harris, Neil; Maycock, Amanda; Pyle, John

2016-04-01

Trends in tropical column ozone under a number of different emissions scenarios are explored with the UM-UKCA coupled chemistry climate model. A transient 1960-2100 simulation was run following the RCP6 scenario. Tropical averaged (10S-10N) total column ozone values decrease from the 1970s, reaching a minimum around 2000, and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of ozone depleting substances, and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the total column is subdivided into three partial columns, extending from the surface to the tropopause, the tropopause to 30km, and 30km to 50km, significant differences to the total column trend are seen. Modelled tropospheric column values increase from 1960-2000 before remaining steady throughout the 21st Century. Lower stratospheric column values decrease rapidly from 1960-2000, remain steady until 2050 before slowly decreasing to 2100, never recovering to their 1980s values. Upper stratospheric values decrease from 1960-2000, before rapidly increasing throughout the 21st Century, recovering to 1980s values by ~2020 and are significantly increased above the 1980s values by 2100. Using a series of idealised model simulations with varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, we assess the physical processes driving the partial column response in the troposphere, lower stratosphere and upper stratosphere, and assess how these processes change under different emissions scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model for predicting tropical column ozone values based on greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance scenarios.

Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

PubMed

Foreman, Brady Z; Heller, Paul L; Clementz, Mark T

2012-11-01

Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface.

A model of strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Douglas H.; Cook, R.D.

2013-01-01

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

Modelled non-linear response to climate of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap, southern Norway, since the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åkesson, Henning; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Giesen, Rianne H.; Morlighem, Mathieu

2016-04-01

Glacier and ice cap volume changes currently amount to half of the total cryospheric contribution to sea-level rise and are projected to remain substantial throughout the 21st century. To simulate glacier behavior on centennial and longer time scales, models rely on simplified dynamics and tunable parameters for processes not well understood. Model calibration is often done using present-day observations, even though the relationship between parameters and parametrized processes may be altered for significantly different glacier states. In this study, we simulate the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene, through the Little Ice Age (LIA) and into the future. We run an ensemble for both calibration and transient experiments, using a two-dimensional ice flow model with mesh refinement. For the Holocene, we apply a simple mass balance forcing based on climate reconstructions. For the LIA until 1962, we use geomorphological evidence and measured outlet glacier positions to find a mass balance history, while we use direct mass balance measurements from 1963 until today. Given a linear climate forcing, we show that Hardangerøkulen grew from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene, to its maximum LIA extent in a highly non-linear fashion. We relate this to local bed topography and demonstrate that volume and area of some but not all outlet glaciers, as well as the entire ice cap, become decoupled for several centuries during our simulation of the late Holocene, before co-varying approaching the LIA. Our model is able to simulate most recorded ice cap and outlet glacier changes from the LIA until today. We show that present-day Hardangerøkulen is highly sensitive to mass balance changes, and estimate that the ice cap will melt completely by the year 2100.

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996--Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vermeul, Vincent R.; Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.

2001-08-29

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures andmore » parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. These results, however, indicate that additional improvements are required to the conceptual model framework. An investigation was initiated at the end of this basalt inverse modeling effort to determine whether facies-based zonation would improve specific yield parameter estimation results (ACM-2). A description of the justification and methodology to develop this zonation is discussed.« less

Influence of inhomogeneous surface heat capacity on the estimation of radiative response coefficients in a two-zone energy balance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jungmin; Choi, Yong-Sang

2018-04-01

Observationally constrained values of the global radiative response coefficient are pivotal to assess the reliability of modeled climate feedbacks. A widely used approach is to measure transient global radiative imbalance related to surface temperature changes. However, in this approach, a potential error in the estimate of radiative response coefficients may arise from surface inhomogeneity in the climate system. We examined this issue theoretically using a simple two-zone energy balance model. Here, we dealt with the potential error by subtracting the prescribed radiative response coefficient from those calculated within the two-zone framework. Each zone was characterized by the different magnitude of the radiative response coefficient and the surface heat capacity, and the dynamical heat transport in the atmosphere between the zones was parameterized as a linear function of the temperature difference between the zones. Then, the model system was forced by randomly generated monthly varying forcing mimicking time-varying forcing like an observation. The repeated simulations showed that inhomogeneous surface heat capacity causes considerable miscalculation (down to -1.4 W m-2 K-1 equivalent to 31.3% of the prescribed value) in the global radiative response coefficient. Also, the dynamical heat transport reduced this miscalculation driven by inhomogeneity of surface heat capacity. Therefore, the estimation of radiative response coefficients using the surface temperature-radiation relation is appropriate for homogeneous surface areas least affected by the exterior.

Holocene shifts of the southern westerlies across the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, Ines; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Prange, Matthias; Mulitza, Stefan; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Varma, Vidya; Henrich, Ruediger

2015-02-01

The southern westerly winds (SWW) exert a crucial influence over the world ocean and climate. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the Holocene temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of high-resolution marine archives and appropriate SWW proxies. Here we present a north-south transect of high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the western South Atlantic. Our proxy records reveal Holocene migrations of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a highly sensitive feature for changes in the position and strength of the northern portion of the SWW. Through the tight coupling of the BMC position to the large-scale wind field, the records allow a quantitative reconstruction of Holocene latitudinal displacements of the SWW across the South Atlantic. Our data reveal a gradual poleward movement of the SWW by about 1-1.5° from the early to the mid-Holocene. Afterward, variability in the SWW is dominated by millennial scale displacements on the order of 1° in latitude with no recognizable longer-term trend. These findings are confronted with results from a state-of-the-art transient Holocene climate simulation using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Proxy-inferred and modeled SWW shifts compare qualitatively, but the model underestimates both orbitally forced multimillennial and internal millennial SWW variability by almost an order of magnitude. The underestimated natural variability implies a substantial uncertainty in model projections of future SWW shifts.

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical, future energy demand, and mitigation technology uncertainties. This information provides central information for policy making, since it helps to understand the relationship between mitigation costs and their potential to reduce the risk of exceeding 2°C, or other temperature limits like 3°C or 1.5°C, under a wide range of scenarios.

Cloud Formation and Water Transport on Mars after Major Outflow Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santiago, D. L.; Colaprete, A.; Kreslavsky, M.; Kahre, M. A.; Asphaug, E.

2012-01-01

The triggering of a robust water cycle on Mars might have been caused by the gigantic flooding events evidenced by outflow channels. We use the Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) to test this hypothesis, studying how these presumably abrupt eruptions of water might have affected the climate of Mars in the past. We model where the water ultimately went as part of a transient atmospheric water cycle, to answer questions including: (1) Can sudden introductions of large amounts of water on the Martian surface lead to a new equilibrated water cycle? (2) What are the roles of water vapor and water ice clouds to sudden changes in the water cycle on Mars? (3) How are radiative feedbacks involved with this? (4) What is the ultimate fate of the outflow water? (5) Can we tie certain geological features to outflow water redistributed by the atmosphere?

Survivability of Deterministic Dynamical Systems

PubMed Central

Hellmann, Frank; Schultz, Paul; Grabow, Carsten; Heitzig, Jobst; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-01-01

The notion of a part of phase space containing desired (or allowed) states of a dynamical system is important in a wide range of complex systems research. It has been called the safe operating space, the viability kernel or the sunny region. In this paper we define the notion of survivability: Given a random initial condition, what is the likelihood that the transient behaviour of a deterministic system does not leave a region of desirable states. We demonstrate the utility of this novel stability measure by considering models from climate science, neuronal networks and power grids. We also show that a semi-analytic lower bound for the survivability of linear systems allows a numerically very efficient survivability analysis in realistic models of power grids. Our numerical and semi-analytic work underlines that the type of stability measured by survivability is not captured by common asymptotic stability measures. PMID:27405955

Thermal fatigue life evaluation of SnAgCu solder joints in a multi-chip power module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbagallo, C.; Malgioglio, G. L.; Petrone, G.; Cammarata, G.

2017-05-01

For power devices, the reliability of thermal fatigue induced by thermal cycling has been prioritized as an important concern. The main target of this work is to apply a numerical procedure to assess the fatigue life for lead-free solder joints, that represent, in general, the weakest part of the electronic modules. Starting from a real multi-chip power module, FE-based models were built-up by considering different conditions in model implementation in order to simulate, from one hand, the worst working condition for the module and, from another one, the module standing into a climatic test room performing thermal cycles. Simulations were carried-out both in steady and transient conditions in order to estimate the module thermal maps, the stress-strain distributions, the effective plastic strain distributions and finally to assess the number of cycles to failure of the constitutive solder layers.

A robust definition of South Asian monsoon onset and retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Bordoni, S.

2017-12-01

In this study, we revisit one of the major outstanding problems in the monsoon literature: defining the onset and retreat of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). The SASM rainy season, which provides essential water resources to densely populated and rapidly growing countries in South Asia, begins with a dramatic increase in rainfall and an abrupt reversal in near-surface winds, and concludes with a more gradual transition at season's end. Many different measures of SASM onset and retreat have been developed for specific applications, but there is no widely accepted and broadly applicable objective definition. Existing definitions generally rely upon thresholds, posing challenges such as sensitivity to threshold selection and susceptibility to false onsets due to transient weather conditions. In this study, we use the large-scale atmospheric moisture budget to define an SASM onset and retreat index that captures the seasonal transitions in both precipitation and circulation. Our use of change point detection eliminates the need for thresholds, provides a precise characterization of the timescales and stages of the SASM, and allows straightforward comparison across different datasets and climate models. This robust and flexible methodology is ideal for studying variability and trends in monsoon timing, as well as comparing model performance and assessing future SASM changes in climate simulations.

Development of Joint Climate and Discharge Projections for the International Rhine River Basin - the CHR RheinBlick2050 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Görgen, K.; Pfister, L.

2008-12-01

The anticipated climate change will lead to modified hydro-meteorological regimes that influence discharge behaviour and hydraulics of rivers. This has variable impacts on managed (anthropogenic) and unmanaged (natural) systems, depending on their sensitivity and vulnerability (ecology, economy, infrastructure, transport, energy production, water management, etc.). Decision makers in these contexts need adequate adaptation strategies to minimize adverse effects of climate change, i.e. an improved knowledge on the potential impacts including uncertainties means an extension of the informed options open to users. The goal of the highly applied study presented here is the development of joint, consistent climate and discharge projections for the international Rhine River catchments (Switzerland, France, Germany, Netherlands) in order to assess future changes of hydro-meteorological regimes in the meso- and macroscale Rhine River catchments and to derive and improve the understanding of such impacts on hydrologic and hydraulic processes. The RheinBlick2050 project is an international effort initiated by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in close cooperation with the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine. The core experiment design foresees a data-synthesis, multi-model approach where (transient) (bias- corrected) regional climate change projections are used as forcing data for existing calibrated hydrological (and hydraulic) models at a daily temporal resolution over mesoscale catchments of the Rhine River. Mainly for validation purposes, hydro-meteorological observations from national weather services are compiled into a new consistent 5 km x 5 km reference dataset from 1961 to 2005. RCM data are mainly used from the ENSEMBLES project and other existing dynamical downscaling model runs to derive probabilistic ensembles and thereby also access uncertainties on a regional scale. A benchmarking is helping to identify those atmospheric forcing data that ideally suit the needs for the subsequent hydrological model runs with the LARSIM and HBV models and evaluate those simulations too. As a result, usable information and quantifiable statements (e.g. extreme value statistics, uncertainty assessment, validation), that might form the basis for further planning or policy relevant decisions, are to be derived. Our analyses are highly influenced by the requirements of the potential users and stakeholders from government agencies who shall make use of the data and results. Here we present first results of the application of the complete data processing and modelling chain towards discharge projections on a subset of input data, albeit still without any bias correction applied to the meteorological forcing data.

Global projections and climate stabilisation targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2014-05-01

The Summary for policy makers of the 5th Assessment Report of the Working Group 1 of IPCC has a figure that has no equivalent in previous IPCC assessment reports. This new figure shows the change in global average surface temperature as a function of cumulative anthropogenic emissions of CO2. In this talk I will describe how the concept of transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) that supports that figure emerged from the literature over the recent years and what are the fundamental physical and biogeochemical processes that explain this relationship and its linearity. I will also explore the implication of TCRE for long-term climate change and mitigation strategies as well as the limitations of the concept of TCRE.