Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Climate variability and vadose zone controls on damping of transient recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corona, Claudia R.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Maurer, Edwin P.

2018-01-01

Increasing demand on groundwater resources motivates understanding of the controls on recharge dynamics so model predictions under current and future climate may improve. Here we address questions about the nonlinear behavior of flux variability in the vadose zone that may explain previously reported teleconnections between global-scale climate variability and fluctuations in groundwater levels. We use hundreds of HYDRUS-1D simulations in a sensitivity analysis approach to evaluate the damping depth of transient recharge over a range of periodic boundary conditions and vadose zone geometries and hydraulic parameters that are representative of aquifer systems of the conterminous United States (U.S). Although the models were parameterized based on U.S. aquifers, findings from this study are applicable elsewhere that have mean recharge rates between 3.65 and 730 mm yr–1. We find that mean infiltration flux, period of time varying infiltration, and hydraulic conductivity are statistically significant predictors of damping depth. The resulting framework explains why some periodic infiltration fluxes associated with climate variability dampen with depth in the vadose zone, resulting in steady-state recharge, while other periodic surface fluxes do not dampen with depth, resulting in transient recharge. We find that transient recharge in response to the climate variability patterns could be detected at the depths of water levels in most U.S. aquifers. Our findings indicate that the damping behavior of transient infiltration fluxes is linear across soil layers for a range of texture combinations. The implications are that relatively simple, homogeneous models of the vadose zone may provide reasonable estimates of the damping depth of climate-varying transient recharge in some complex, layered vadose zone profiles.

Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Oka, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K) version of MIROC3.2. By tuning of the physical and biogeochemical parameters it was possible to reasonably reproduce the bulk physical and biogeochemical properties of previously published CO2 stabilisation scenarios for that model. As an example of an application of the LCM, the behavior of the high sensitivity version of MIROC3.2 (with a 6.3 K equilibrium climate sensitivity) is also demonstrated. Given the highly adjustable nature of the model, we believe that the LCM should be a very useful tool for studying uncertainty in global climate change, and we have named the model, JUMP-LCM, after the name of our research group (Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project).

Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene - an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Ni, Jian; Cao, Xianyong; Wang, Yongbo; Fischer, Nils; Pfeiffer, Madlene; Jin, Liya; Khon, Vyacheslav; Wagner, Sebastian; Haberkorn, Kerstin; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-02-01

The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate-vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean(-vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions.In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon-westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4° in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6° in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21 % during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert-steppe margin is shifted westward by 5° (1-9° in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2°, ranging from 0 to 4° in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wang, H.

2004-01-01

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley, L. J.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, C.; Keisling, B. A.; Box, J. E.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Sinclair, G.; DeConto, R. M.

2018-02-01

The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to climate forcing is of key importance in assessing its contribution to past and future sea level rise. Surface mass loss occurs during summer, and accounting for temperature seasonality is critical in simulating ice sheet evolution and in interpreting glacial landforms and chronologies. Ice core records constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change but are largely limited to annual mean estimates from the ice sheet interior. Here we merge ice core reconstructions with transient climate model simulations to generate Greenland-wide and seasonally resolved surface air temperature fields during the last deglaciation. Greenland summer temperatures peak in the early Holocene, consistent with records of ice core melt layers. We perform deglacial Greenland ice sheet model simulations to demonstrate that accounting for realistic temperature seasonality decreases simulated glacial ice volume, expedites the deglacial margin retreat, mutes the impact of abrupt climate warming, and gives rise to a clear Holocene ice volume minimum.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Caldeira, Ken

2007-06-12

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.

A Transient Initialization Routine of the Community Ice Sheet Model for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Laan, Larissa; van den Broeke, Michiel; Noël, Brice; van de Wal, Roderik

2017-04-01

The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is to be applied in future simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under a range of climate change scenarios, determining the sensitivity of the ice sheet to individual climatic forcings. In order to achieve reliable results regarding ice sheet stability and assess the probability of future occurrence of tipping points, a realistic initial ice sheet geometry is essential. The current work describes and evaluates the development of a transient initialization routine, using NGRIP 18O isotope data to create a temperature anomaly field. Based on the latter, surface mass balance components runoff and precipitation are perturbed for the past 125k years. The precipitation and runoff fields originate from a downscaled 1 km resolution version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 for the period 1961-1990. The result of the initialization routine is a present-day ice sheet with a transient memory of the last glacial-interglacial cycle, which will serve as the future runs' initial condition.

Soil and vegetation parameter uncertainty on future terrestrial carbon sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothavala, Z.; Felzer, B. S.

2013-12-01

We examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate at the centennial scale using an intermediate complexity Earth system climate model that includes the effects of dynamic vegetation and the global carbon cycle. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated terrestrial carbon sinks to three key model parameters: (a) The temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition, (b) the upper temperature limits on the rate of photosynthesis, and (c) the nitrogen limitation of the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco. We integrated the model in fully coupled mode for a 1200-year spin-up period, followed by a 300-year transient simulation starting at year 1800. Ensemble simulations were conducted varying each parameter individually and in combination with other variables. The results of the transient simulations show that terrestrial carbon uptake is very sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Changes in net primary productivity were most sensitive to the upper temperature limit on the rate of photosynthesis, which also had a dominant effect on overall land carbon trends; this is consistent with previous research that has shown the importance of climatic suppression of photosynthesis as a driver of carbon-climate feedbacks. Soil carbon generally decreased with increasing temperature, though the magnitude of this trend depends on both the net primary productivity changes and the temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition. Vegetation carbon increased in some simulations, but this was not consistent across all configurations of model parameters. Comparing to global carbon budget observations, we identify the subset of model parameters which are consistent with observed carbon sinks; this serves to narrow considerably the future model projections of terrestrial carbon sink changes in comparison with the full model ensemble.

Atmospheric dynamical changes as a contributor to deglacial climate variability: results from an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Heather; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

The atmosphere is often assumed to play a passive role in centennial- to millennial-timescale climate variations of the last deglaciation due to its short response times ( years) and the absence of abrupt changes in external climate forcings. Nevertheless, atmospheric dynamical responses to changes in ice sheet topography and albedo can affect the entire Northern Hemisphere through the altering of Rossby stationary wave patterns and changes to the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. These responses appear sensitive to the particular configuration of Northern Hemisphere land ice, so small changes have the potential to reorganize atmospheric circulation with impacts on precipitation distributions, ocean surface currents and sea ice extent. Indirect proxy evidence, idealized theoretical studies, and "snapshot" simulations performed at different periods during the last glacial cycle indicate that between the Last Glacial Maximum and the preindustrial period the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet weakened, became less zonally-oriented, and exhibited greater variability. How the transition (or transitions) between the glacial atmospheric state and the interglacial state occurred is less clear. To address this question, we performed an ensemble of transient simulations of the last deglaciation using the Planet Simulator coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation-sea ice model (PlaSim, at an atmospheric resolution of T42) forced by variants of the GLAC1-D deglacial ice sheet chronology. We characterize simulated changes in stationary wave patterns over this period as well as changes in the strength and position of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. In particular, we document the range of timescales for these changes and compare the simulated climate signatures of these transitions to data archives of precipitation and sea ice extent.

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent.

PubMed

Vinnikov; Robock; Stouffer; Walsh; Parkinson; Cavalieri; Mitchell; Garrett; Zakharov

1999-12-03

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.

Importance of unsaturated zone flow for simulating recharge in a humid climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Prudic, David E.; Walker, J.F.; Anderson, M.P.

2008-01-01

Transient recharge to the water table is often not well understood or quantified. Two approaches for simulating transient recharge in a ground water flow model were investigated using the Trout Lake watershed in north-central Wisconsin: (1) a traditional approach of adding recharge directly to the water table and (2) routing the same volume of water through an unsaturated zone column to the water table. Areas with thin (less than 1 m) unsaturated zones showed little difference in timing of recharge between the two approaches; when water was routed through the unsaturated zone, however, less recharge was delivered to the water table and more discharge occurred to the surface because recharge direction and magnitude changed when the water table rose to the land surface. Areas with a thick (15 to 26 m) unsaturated zone were characterized by multimonth lags between infiltration and recharge, and, in some cases, wetting fronts from precipitation events during the fall overtook and mixed with infiltration from the previous spring snowmelt. Thus, in thicker unsaturated zones, the volume of water infiltrated was properly simulated using the traditional approach, but the timing was different from simulations that included unsaturated zone flow. Routing of rejected recharge and ground water discharge at land surface to surface water features also provided a better simulation of the observed flow regime in a stream at the basin outlet. These results demonstrate that consideration of flow through the unsaturated zone may be important when simulating transient ground water flow in humid climates with shallow water tables.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

Linkages between ocean circulation, heat uptake and transient warming: a sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Patrik; Stocker, Thomas

2016-04-01

Transient global warming due to greenhouse gas radiative forcing is substantially reduced by ocean heat uptake (OHU). However, the fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized in transient climate model simulations differs strongly between models (Frölicher and Paynter 2015). It has been shown that this difference is not only related to the magnitude of OHU, but also to the radiative response the OHU causes, measured by the OHU efficacy (Winton et al., 2010). This efficacy is strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of the OHU and its changes (Rose et al. 2014, Winton et al. 2013), predominantly caused by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Even in absence of external greenhouse gas forcing, an AMOC weakening causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), inducing in a net warming of the Earth System. We investigate linkages between those findings by performing both freshwater and greenhouse gas experiments in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. To assess the sensitivity of the results to ocean and atmospheric transport as well as climate sensitivity, we use an ensemble of model versions, systematically varying key parameters. We analyze circulation changes and radiative adjustments in conjunction with traditional warming metrics such as the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. This aims to improve the understanding of the influence of ocean circulation and OHU on transient climate change, and of the relevance of different metrics for describing this influence. References: Frölicher, T. L. and D.J. Paynter (2015), Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075022 Peltier, W. R., and G. Vettoretti (2014), Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A "kicked" salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7306-7313 Rose, B. E. J., K. C. Armour, D. S. Battisti, N. Feldl, and D. D. B. Koll (2014), The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1071-1078 Winton M., K. Takahashi and I. M. Held (2010), Importance of ocean heat uptake efficacy to transient climate change, J. Clim., 23, 2333-44 Winton, M., S. M. Griffies, B. Samuels, J. L. Sarmiento and T. L. Frölicher (2013) Connecting changing ocean circulation with changing climate, J. Clim., 26, 2268-78

Process model simulations of the divergence effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Evans, M. N.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Hughes, M. K.; Kaplan, A.; Vaganov, E. A.

2007-12-01

We explore the extent to which the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model of conifer tree-ring formation can explain evidence for changing relationships between climate and tree growth over recent decades. The VS model is driven by daily environmental forcing (temperature, soil moisture, and solar radiation), and simulates tree-ring growth cell-by-cell as a function of the most limiting environmental control. This simplified representation of tree physiology allows us to examine using a selection of case studies whether instances of divergence may be explained in terms of changes in limiting environmental dependencies or transient climate change. Identification of model-data differences permits further exploration of the effects of tree-ring standardization, atmospheric composition, and additional non-climatic factors.

Application of MODFLOW’s farm process to California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia; Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Belitz, Kenneth

2008-01-01

landscape processes. The FMP provides coupled simulation of the ground-water and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle for irrigated and non-irrigated areas. A dynamic allocation of ground-water recharge and ground-water pumping is simulated on the basis of residual crop-water demand after surface-water deliveries and root uptake from shallow ground water. The FMP links with the Streamflow Routing Package SFR1) to facilitate the simulated conveyance of surface-water deliveries. Ground-water Pumpage through both single-aquifer and multi-node wells, irrigation return flow, and variable irrigation efficiencies also are simulated by the FMP. The simulated deliveries and ground-water pumpage in the updated model reflect climatic differences, differences among defined water-balance regions, and changes in the waterdelivery system, during the 1961–2003 simulation period. The model is designed to accept forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the potential effects on surface-water delivery, ground-water pumpage, and ground-water storage in response to climate change. The model provides a detailed transient analysis of changes in ground-water availability in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, and changes in irrigated agriculture.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Robustness of hydrological indicators for transient and stabilized climate states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulange, J. E.; Hanasaki, N.

2017-12-01

By signing the Paris agreement, countries have committed to pursue efforts to limit global warming to +1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Consequently, there is a growing interest in better understanding the impacts of a +1.5°C world. Previous analyses were conducted by considering a time slice period, centered on the year when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses the +1.5°C threshold (Fig. 1). This time slice period is characterized by a transient state which may influence the reported results (transient climate state). Ideally, analyses should be carried under the condition the GMT is stabilized at +1.5°C (stabilized climate state) but, such targeted simulations do not exist for most GCMs.1A global hydrological model, the H08 model,2 and hydrological indicators (HI) obtained for the transient and stabilized states, are used to answer the following questions: (1) are there quantifiable differences between the HI computed for the transient and stabilized states? (2) can relations be derived between the HI computed for the transient and stabilized states? (3) what are the potential impacts induced by the differences in HI computed for the transient and stabilized states? Signal to noise ratios (S/N) obtained for the transient and stabilized states, in an identical warmer world (+1.7°C), are compared (Fig. 2). The S/N ratio computed for the stabilized state were significantly lower than those of the transient state for most regions and HI. However, at higher latitude, the S/N ratios computed for the two states were similar whereas for medium and low latitudes, the differences were more pronounced. For most regions and HI (except for surface temperature), the S/N ratios of the stabilized state were 10 to 20% weaker than those of the transient state. References:1 Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedlacek, J. & Fischer, E. M. Nature Geosci (2016). 2 Hanasaki, N. et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. (2008).

Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geomorphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Gonçalvès, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.-P.

In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geomorphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geomorphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine surrection. Climate forcing results from palaeoclimate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (˜3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA’s Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid potentials. The dependence of the boundary-induced transient effects on the hydraulic diffusivity is illustrated by means of a sensitivity study.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

2013-02-07

According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration provided the critical feedback on global deglaciation.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc. Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

How Are MIS-5e And MIS-11 Different From Other Interglacials And the Future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Q.; Berger, A.

2017-12-01

MIS-5e and MIS-11 appear in many proxy records as the warmest interglacials of the last million years although their astronomical configurations are very different. To investigate how they are different from other interglacials and between themselves, the climate of nine interglacials of the past 800,000 years has been simulated using both snapshot and transient experiments. These simulations allow to investigate the relative contributions of insolation and CO2 to the intensity and duration of each interglacial as well as the differences and similarities between the interglacials. The transient simulations which cover a large range of precession, obliquity and eccentricity allow to investigate the response of different climate variables and different regions to the three astronomical parameters. My presentation will focus on the characteristics of the climate forcing and response of MIS-5e and MIS-11 in comparison with the other intergalcials. Their duration and intensity at global and regional scales will be shown and the causes will be discussed. Unique features in astronomical forcing as well as in regional climate response are found in MIS-5e and MIS-11, which might help to understand why they appear to be among the warmest interglacials. The model results also show that the warm interval of MIS-11 is the longest, confirming its long duration as found in many proxy records. The long duration of MIS-11 is related to a particular combination of eccentricity, obliquity and precession as well as to its long-lasting high CO2 concentration. The differences between the seasonal behaviour of the past interglacials highlight the importance of seasonal climate reconstruction and therefore the necessity to obtain seasonal proxies. The simulated climate of MIS-5e and MIS-11 will also be compared with the climate of today and of the future to investigate the differences and similarities between the past warm conditions and the projected future warming. Part of the results are published in: Yin Q.Z. and Berger A., 2015. Interglacial analogues of the Holocene and its natural near future. Quaternary Science Reviews, 120, 28-46. Yin Q.Z. and Berger A., 2012. Individual contribution of insolation and CO2 to the interglacial climates of the past 800,000 years. Climate Dynamics 38:709-724.

Equatorial waves simulated by the NCAR community climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Xinhua; Chen, Tsing-Chang

1988-01-01

The equatorial planetary waves simulated by the NCAR CCM1 general circulation model were investigated in terms of space-time spectral analysis (Kao, 1968; Hayashi, 1971, 1973) and energetic analysis (Hayashi, 1980). These analyses are particularly applied to grid-point data on latitude circles. In order to test some physical factors which may affect the generation of tropical transient planetary waves, three different model simulations with the CCM1 (the control, the no-mountain, and the no-cloud experiments) were analyzed.

Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tilmes, S.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Kinnison, Douglas E.

2009-06-27

A coupled chemistry climate model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model was used to perform a transient climate simulation to quantify the impact of geoengineered aerosols on atmospheric processes. In contrast to previous model studies, the impact on stratospheric chemistry, including heterogeneous chemistry in the polar regions, is considered in this simulation. In the geoengineering simulation, a constant stratospheric distribution of volcanic-sized, liquid sulfate aerosols is imposed in the period 2020–2050, corresponding to an injection of 2 Tg S/a. The aerosol cools the troposphere compared to a baseline simulation. Assuming an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario, globalmore » warming is delayed by about 40 years in the troposphere with respect to the baseline scenario. Large local changes of precipitation and temperatures may occur as a result of geoengineering. Comparison with simulations carried out with the Community Atmosphere Model indicates the importance of stratospheric processes for estimating the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the Earth’s climate. Changes in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry, especially faster heterogeneous reactions, reduce the recovery of the ozone layer in middle and high latitudes for the Southern Hemisphere. In the geoengineering case, the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole is delayed by about 30 years on the basis of this model simulation. For the Northern Hemisphere, a onefold to twofold increase of the chemical ozone depletion occurs owing to a simulated stronger polar vortex and colder temperatures compared to the baseline simulation, in agreement with observational estimates.« less

Regional Climate Modeling of Volcanic Eruptions and the Arctic Climate System: A Baffin Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losic, M.; Robock, A.

2010-12-01

It is well-understood that the effects of volcanic aerosol loading into the stratosphere are transient, with global cooling lasting only a few years after a single large eruption. Geological evidence collected from Northern Baffin Island, Canada, suggests ice cap growth began soon after a succession of several large eruptions in the 13th century, and they did not start to melt until roughly a century ago. We investigate which feedbacks allowed these ice caps to be maintained long after the transient forcing of the volcanic aerosols, by conducting sensitivity studies with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Polar WRF, a version of WRF developed specifically for the polar regions. Results from an ensemble of month-long regional simulations over Baffin Island suggest that better treatment of snow and ice in Polar WRF improves our regional climate simulations. Thus, sensitivity test results from decade-long runs with imposed changes to boundary condition temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations using Polar WRF are presented. Preliminary findings suggest that not only large scale but localized climate feedbacks play an important role in the responses of the ice caps after temperature and carbon dioxide forcings are applied. The results from these and further sensitivity tests will provide insight into the influence of regional feedbacks on the persistence of these ice caps long after the 13th century eruptions.

Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, N.; Martin, T.; Keller, D. P.; Oschlies, A.

2016-05-01

The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient climate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of permafrost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to destabilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005-2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.

Climate in the absence of ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

The energy transported by the oceans to mid- and high latitudes is small compared to the atmosphere, yet exerts an outsized influence on climate. A key reason is the strong interaction between ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice extent. I quantify the absolute climatic impact of OHT using the state-of-the-art CESM simulations by comparing a realistic control climate against a slab ocean simulation in which OHT is disabled. The absence of OHT leads to a massive expansion of sea ice into the subtropics in both hemispheres, and a 24 K global cooling. Analysis of the transient simulation after setting the OHT to zero reveals a global cooling process fueled by a runaway sea ice albedo feedback. This process is eventually self-limiting in the cold climate due to a combination of subtropical cloud feedbacks and surface wind effects that are both connected to a massive spin-up of the atmospheric Hadley circulation. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the simulated climate is far more sensitive to small changes in ice surface albedo in the absence of OHT. I conclude that the oceans are responsible for an enormous global warming by mitigating an otherwise very potent sea ice albedo feedback, but that the magnitude of this effect is rather uncertain. These simulations provide a graphic illustration of how the intimate coupling between sea ice and ocean circulation governs the present-day climate, and by extension, highlight the importance of modeling ocean - sea ice interaction with high fidelity.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are applied not only to the mean of climatic variables, but also across the statistical distributions of these variables. This is important as these distributions are expected to change in the future, with more extreme rainfall events, separated by longer dry periods. (2) The novel approach used in this study can simulate transient climate change from 2010 to 2085, rather than time series representative of a stationary climate for the period 2071-2100. (3) The weather generator is used to generate a large number of equiprobable climate change scenarios for each RCM, representative of the natural variability of the weather. All of these scenarios are applied as input to the Geer basin model to assess the projected impact of climate change on groundwater levels, the uncertainty arising for different RCM projections and the uncertainty linked to natural climatic variability. Using the output results from all scenarios, 95% confidence intervals are calculated for each year and month between 2010 and 2085. The climate change scenarios for the Geer basin model predict hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Considering the results of this study, it is very likely that groundwater levels and surface flow rates in the Geer basin will decrease by the end of the century. This is of concern because it also means that groundwater quantities available for abstraction will also decrease. However, this study also shows that the uncertainty of these projections is relatively large compared to the projected changes so that it remains difficult to confidently determine the magnitude of the decrease. The use and combination of an integrated surface - subsurface model and stochastic climate change scenarios has never been used in previous climate change impact studies on groundwater resources. It constitutes an innovation and is an important tool for helping water managers to take decisions.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

of the present-day Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4. J. Climate, 2676-2695. Overeem, I ., R . S. Anderson, C. W. Wobus, G. D. Clow, F. E. Urban, and N...intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? APPROACH I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century...simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). I am including 14

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2016-02-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An ˜ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.

2015-12-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

2016-01-01

Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

Stationary Waves of the Ice Age Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Held, Isaac M.

1988-08-01

A linearized, steady state, primitive equation model is used to simulate the climatological zonal asymmetries (stationary eddies) in the wind and temperature fields of the 18 000 YBP climate during winter. We compare these results with the eddies simulated in the ice age experiments of Broccoli and Manabe, who used CLIMAP boundary conditions and reduced atmospheric CO2 in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled with a static mixed layer ocean model. The agreement between the models is good, indicating that the linear model can be used to evaluate the relative influences of orography, diabatic heating, and transient eddy heat and momentum transports in generating stationary waves. We find that orographic forcing dominates in the ice age climate. The mechanical influence of the continental ice sheets on the atmosphere is responsible for most of the changes between the present day and ice age stationary eddies. This concept of the ice age climate is complicated by the sensitivity of the stationary eddies to the large increase in the magnitude of the zonal mean meridional temperature gradient simulated in the ice age GCM.

Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

2013-06-01

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.

2014-01-01

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

A study of the kinetic energy generation with general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, T.-C.; Lee, Y.-H.

1983-01-01

The history data of winter simulation by the GLAS climate model and the NCAR community climate model are used to examine the generation of atmospheric kinetic energy. The contrast between the geographic distributions of the generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux shows that kinetic energy is generated in the upstream side of jets, transported to the downstream side and destroyed there. The contributions from the time-mean and transient modes to the counterbalance between generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux are also investigated. It is observed that the kinetic energy generated by the time-mean mode is essentially redistributed by the time-mean flow, while that generated by the transient flow is mainly responsible for the maintenance of the kinetic energy of the entire atmospheric flow.

Deglacial Evolution of Atlantic Mid-Depth and Intermediate-Depth Water Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppo, D.; Gebbie, G.; Huang, K. F.; Guo, W.; Schmittner, A.; Liu, Z.; Curry, W. B.

2014-12-01

Deglacial variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) feature prominently in hypotheses of deglacial climate variability and atmospheric CO2rise. However, there is lingering uncertainty in the glacial deepwater mass configuration (e.g. Gebbie, 2014) and deglacial AMOC variability is even more poorly understood. For example, the deglacial evolution of the contribution of northern and southern source waters to the middle and intermediate depths of the Atlantic is still vigorously debated. Here, we evaluate the evolution of subsurface Atlantic ventilation, emphasizing middle and intermediate depths, by comparing new and published records of water mass variability to output from transient model simulations designed to provide insight into the climatic and oceanographic effects of a dramatic reduction in the AMOC, such as apparently occurred during Heinrich Stadial 1 (Liu et al., 2009; Schmittner and Lund, 2014). Gebbie, G. (2014), How much did Glacial North Atlantic Water shoal? Paleoceanography, 29, 190-209, doi: 10.1002/2013PA002557. Liu, Z., B. Otto-Bliesner, F. He, E. Brady, R. Thomas, P. U. Clark, A. E. Carlson, J. Lynch-Stieglitz, W. Curry, E. Brook, D. Erickson, R. Jacob, J. Kutzbach, J., and J. Chen (2009), Transient climate simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bølling-Allerød warming, Science, 325, 310-314. Schmittner, A., and Lund, D. C. (submitted), Carbon Isotopes Support Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline as a Trigger for Early Deglacial CO2 rise Climate of the Past Discussions.

Evaluating Transient Global and Regional Model Simulations: Bridging the Model/Observations Information Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Karl, T. R.; Easterling, D. R.; Buja, L.; Stouffer, R.; Alpert, J.

2001-05-01

A major transition in our ability to evaluate transient Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations is occurring. Real-time and retrospective numerical weather prediction analysis, model runs, climate simulations and assessments are proliferating from a handful of national centers to dozens of groups across the world. It is clear that it is no longer sufficient for any one national center to develop its data services alone. The comparison of transient GCM results with the observational climate record is difficult for several reasons. One limitation is that the global distributions of a number of basic climate quantities, such as precipitation, are not well known. Similarly, observational limitations exist with model re-analysis data. Both the NCEP/NCAR, and the ECMWF, re-analysis eliminate the problems of changing analysis systems but observational data also contain time-dependant biases. These changes in input data are blended with the natural variability making estimates of true variability uncertain. The need for data homogeneity is critical to study questions related to the ability to evaluate simulation of past climate. One approach to correct for time-dependant biases and data sparse regions is the development and use of high quality 'reference' data sets. The primary U.S. National responsibility for the archive and service of weather and climate data rests with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). However, as supercomputers increase the temporal and spatial resolution of both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and GCM models, the volume and varied formats of data presented for archive at NCDC, using current communications technologies and data management techniques is limiting the scientific access of these data. To address this ever expanding need for climate and NWP information, NCDC along with the National Center's for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have initiated the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). NOMADS is a collaboration between the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies (COLA); the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL); the George Mason University (GMU); the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); the NCDC; NCEP; the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL); and the University of Washington. The objective of the NOMADS is to preserve and provide retrospective access to GCM's and reference quality long-term observational and high volume three dimensional data as well as NCEP NWP models and re-start and re-analysis information. The creation of the NOMADS features a data distribution, format independent, methodology enabling scientific collaboration between researchers. The NOMADS configuration will allow a researcher to transparently browse, extract and intercompare retrospective observational and model data products from any of the participating centers. NOMADS will provide the ability to easily initialize and compare the results of ongoing climate model assessments and NWP output. Beyond the ingest and access capability soon to be implemented with NOMADS is the challenge of algorithm development for the inter-comparison of large-array data (e.g., satellite and radar) with surface, upper-air, and sub-surface ocean observational data. The implementation of NOMADS should foster the development of new quality control processes by taking advantage of distributed data access.

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

Most robust estimate of the Transient Climate Response yet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Venema, Victor; Schurer, Andrew

2017-04-01

Estimates of the Transient Climate Response often lack a coherent hemispheric or otherwise spatio-temporal representation. In the light of recent work that highlights the importance of inhomogeneous forcing considerations (Shindell et al 2014; Marvel et al 2015) and tas/tos-related inaccuracies (Richardson et al. 2016), here we present results from a well-tested two-box response model that takes these effects carefully into account. All external forcing data are updated based on latest emission estimates as well as recent TSI and volcanic AOD estimates. So are observed GMST data which include data for the entire year of 2016. Hence we also provide one of the first TCR estimates taking the latest El Nino into account. We demonstrate that short-term climate variability is not going to change the TCR estimate beyond very minor fluctuations. The method is therefore shown to be robust within surprisingly small uncertainty estimates. Using PMIP3 and an extended ensemble of HadCM3 simulations (Euro500; Schurer et al. 2014) GCM simulations for the pre-industrial period, we test the fast and slow response time constants that are tailored for observational data (Ripdal 2012). We also test the hemispheric response as well as the response over land and ocean separately. The TCR/ECS ratio is taken from a selected sub-set of CMIP5 simulations. The selection criteria is the best spatiotemporal match over 4 different time periods between 1860 and 2010. We will argue that this procedure should also be standard procedure to estimate ECS from observations, rather than relying on OHC estimates only. Finally, the demonstrate that PMIP3-type simulations that are initialised at least a century before 1850 (as is the standard initialisation for CMIP5-type simulations) are to be preferred. Remaining long-term radiative imbalance due to strong volcanic eruptions (e.g. Gleckler et al. 2006) tend to make CMIP5-type simulations slightly more sensitive to forcing, which leads to detectable stronger warming up until recent day.

A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM for a variety of transient forcing scenarios. Both surface warming and sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the deep ocean in response to a gradually increasing forcing are reasonably reproduced on time scales of 100-150 y. However a wide range of diffusion coefficients is needed to match the behavior of different AOGCMs. We use results of simulations with the 2-D model to show that the impact on climate change of the implied uncertainty in the rate of heat penetration into the deep ocean is comparable with that of other significant uncertainties.

The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-09-01

Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice-albedo feedback predominates the surface-height-temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength.

Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Christensen, Hannah M.; Juricke, Stephan; Subramanian, Aneesh; Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, Antje; Palmer, Tim N.

2017-03-01

The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850-2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate - specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

2017-11-01

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Evaluating simulated functional trait patterns and quantifying modelled trait diversity effects on simulated ecosystem fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.

2014-12-01

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically employ only a small set of Plant Functional Types (PFTs) to represent the vast diversity of observed vegetation forms and functioning. There is growing evidence, however, that this abstraction may not adequately represent the observed variation in plant functional traits, which is thought to play an important role for many ecosystem functions and for ecosystem resilience to environmental change. The geographic distribution of PFTs in these models is also often based on empirical relationships between present-day climate and vegetation patterns. Projections of future climate change, however, point toward the possibility of novel regional climates, which could lead to no-analog vegetation compositions incompatible with the PFT paradigm. Here, we present results from the Jena Diversity-DGVM (JeDi-DGVM), a novel traits-based vegetation model, which simulates a large number of hypothetical plant growth strategies constrained by functional tradeoffs, thereby allowing for a more flexible temporal and spatial representation of the terrestrial biosphere. First, we compare simulated present-day geographical patterns of functional traits with empirical trait observations (in-situ and from airborne imaging spectroscopy). The observed trait patterns are then used to improve the tradeoff parameterizations of JeDi-DGVM. Finally, focusing primarily on the simulated leaf traits, we run the model with various amounts of trait diversity. We quantify the effects of these modeled biodiversity manipulations on simulated ecosystem fluxes and stocks for both present-day conditions and transient climate change scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the coarse treatment of plant functional traits by current PFT-based vegetation models may contribute substantial uncertainty regarding carbon-climate feedbacks. Further development of trait-based models and further investment in global in-situ and spectroscopic plant trait observations are needed.

Development of a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Gesch, Dean B.; Carlson, Carl S.

2013-01-01

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to simulate both groundwater flow and solute (salt) transport to evaluate the groundwater system response to sea-level rise. The model was constructed using geologic and spatial information to represent the island geometry, boundaries, and physical properties and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation technique. An initial transient solute-transport simulation was used to establish the freshwater-saltwater boundary for a final calibrated steady-state model of groundwater flow. This model was developed as part of an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program to improve capabilities for predicting potential climate-change effects and provide the necessary tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse impacts.

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point andmore » the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.« less

Arctic climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M.

2010-12-01

Recent warming and record summer sea-ice area minimums have spurred expressions of concern for arctic ecosystems, permafrost, and polar bear populations, among other things. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to deliberately cancel the anthropogenic temperature rise has been put forth as a possible solution to restoring Arctic (and global) climate to modern conditions. However, climate is particularly sensitive in the northern high latitudes, responding easily to radiative forcing changes. To that end, we explore the extent to which tropical injections of stratospheric sulfate aerosol can accomplish regional cancellation in the Arctic. We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 global climate model to execute simulations with combinations of doubled CO2 and imposed stratospheric sulfate burdens to investigate the effects on high latitude climate. We further explore the sensitivity of the polar climate to ocean dynamics by running a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics, transiently and to equilibrium respectively. We find that, although annual, global mean temperature cancellation is accomplished, there is over-cooling on land in Arctic summer, but residual warming in Arctic winter, which is largely due to atmospheric circulation changes. Furthermore, the spatial extent of these features and their concurrent impacts on sea-ice properties are modified by the inclusion of ocean dynamical feedbacks.

Impact of dynamic vegetation phenology on the simulated pan-Arctic land surface state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teufel, Bernardo; Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek K.; Verseghy, Diana

2018-03-01

The pan-Arctic land surface is undergoing rapid changes in a warming climate, with near-surface permafrost projected to degrade significantly during the twenty-first century. Vegetation-related feedbacks have the potential to influence the rate of degradation of permafrost. In this study, the impact of dynamic phenology on the pan-Arctic land surface state, particularly near-surface permafrost, for the 1961-2100 period, is assessed by comparing two simulations of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)—one with dynamic phenology, modelled using the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), and the other with prescribed phenology. These simulations are forced by atmospheric data from a transient climate change simulation of the 5th generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Comparison of the CLASS coupled to CTEM simulation to available observational estimates of plant area index, spatial distribution of permafrost and active layer thickness suggests that the model captures reasonably well the overall distribution of vegetation and permafrost. It is shown that the most important impact of dynamic phenology on the land surface occurs through albedo and it is demonstrated for the first time that vegetation control on albedo during late spring and early summer has the highest potential to impact the degradation of permafrost. While both simulations show extensive near-surface permafrost degradation by the end of the twenty-first century, the strong projected response of vegetation to climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations in the coupled simulation results in accelerated permafrost degradation in the northernmost continuous permafrost regions.

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Pawson, Steven; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.; Kawa, S. Randy; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Oman, Luke; Waugh, Darryn

2008-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

Historical influence of irrigation on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-04-01

Land irrigation is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that land irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. However, a thorough understanding of the impact of irrigation on extreme climatic conditions, such as heat waves, droughts or intense precipitation, is currently still lacking. In this context, we aim to assess the historical influence of irrigation on the occurrence of climate extremes. To this end, two simulations are conducted over the period 1910-2010 with a state-of-the-art global climate model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM): a control simulation including all major anthropogenic and natural external forcings except for irrigation and a second experiment with transient irrigation enabled. The two simulations are evaluated for their ability to represent (i) hot, dry and wet extremes using the HadEX2 and ERA-Interim datasets as a reference, and (ii) latent heat fluxes using LandFlux-EVAL. Assuming a linear combination of climatic responses to different forcings, the difference between both experiments approximates the influence of irrigation. We will analyse the impact of irrigation on a number of climate indices reflecting the intensity and duration of heat waves. Thereby, particular attention is given to the role of soil moisture changes in modulating climate extremes. Furthermore, the contribution of individual biogeophysical processes to the total impact of irrigation on hot extremes is quantified by application of a surface energy balance decomposition technique to the 90th and 99th percentile surface temperature changes.

A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2018-03-01

A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non-stationary) relationship between lake surface temperature and air temperature. The data-model comparison helps partition the impacts of lake-specific processes such as energy balance, mixing, sedimentation and bioturbation. We provide new insight into the patterns, amplitudes, sensitivity, and mechanisms of African temperature change.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

Operative air temperature data for different measures applied on a building envelope in warm climate.

PubMed

Baglivo, Cristina; Congedo, Paolo Maria

2018-04-01

Several technical combinations have been evaluated in order to design high energy performance buildings for the warm climate. The analysis has been developed in several steps, avoiding the use of HVAC systems. The methodological approach of this study is based on a sequential search technique and it is shown on the paper entitled "Envelope Design Optimization by Thermal Modeling of a Building in a Warm Climate" [1]. The Operative Air Temperature trends (TOP), for each combination, have been plotted through a dynamic simulation performed using the software TRNSYS 17 (a transient system simulation program, University of Wisconsin, Solar Energy Laboratory, USA, 2010). Starting from the simplest building configuration consisting of 9 rooms (equal-sized modules of 5 × 5 m 2 ), the different building components are sequentially evaluated until the envelope design is optimized. The aim of this study is to perform a step-by-step simulation, simplifying as much as possible the model without making additional variables that can modify their performances. Walls, slab-on-ground floor, roof, shading and windows are among the simulated building components. The results are shown for each combination and evaluated for Brindisi, a city in southern Italy having 1083 degrees day, belonging to the national climatic zone C. The data show the trends of the TOP for each measure applied in the case study for a total of 17 combinations divided into eight steps.

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America: Diagnosis of feedbacks between groundwater and land energy fluxes at continental scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Reed; Condon, Laura

2016-04-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Model results suggest that partitioning of plant transpiration to bare soil evaporation is a function of water table depth and later groundwater flow. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Modelling the influence of elevation and snow regime on winter stream temperature in the rain-on-snow zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leach, J.; Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Winter stream temperature of coastal mountain catchments influences fish growth and development. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs are dominant controls on stream thermal regimes in these regions. Existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. Therefore, we developed and evaluated a conceptual-parametric catchment-scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model provided reasonable estimates of observed stream temperature at three test catchments. We used the model to simulate winter stream temperature for virtual catchments located at different elevations within the rain-on-snow zone. The modelling exercise examined stream temperature response associated with interactions between elevation, snow regime, and changes in air temperature. Modelling results highlight that the sensitivity of winter stream temperature response to changes in climate may be dependent on catchment elevation and landscape position.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE PAGES

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ...

2018-04-02

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

The impact of greenhouse climate change on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Gutowski, William J., Jr.

1991-01-01

Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to mid-latitude energy and water vapor transports. Changes in the global climate, as induced by greenhouse enhancement, will likely alter transient eddy behavior. Unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in general circulation models (GCMs) can be difficult. The transient eddies are isolated from the feedbacks and are focused on the response of the eddies to zonal-mean climate changes that result from CO2-doubling. Using a primitive-equation spectral model, the impact of climate change on the life cycles of transient eddies is examined. Transient eddy behavior in experiments is compared with initial conditions that are given by the zonal-mean climates of the GCMs with current and doubled amounts of CO2. The smaller meridional temperature gradient in a doubled CO2 climate leads to a reduction in eddy kinetic energy, especially in the subtropics. The decrease in subtropical eddy energy is related to a substantial reduction in equatorward flux of eddy activity during the latter part of the life cycle. The reduction in equatorward energy flux alters the moisture cycle. Eddy meridional transport of water vapor is shifted slightly poleward and subtropical precipitation is reduced. The water vapor transport exhibits a relatively small change in magnitude, compared to changes in eddy energy, due to the compensating effect of higher specific humidity in the doubled-CO2 climate. An increase in high-latitude precipitation is related to the poleward shift in eddy water vapor flux. Surface evaporation amplifies climatic changes in water vapor transport and precipitation in the experiments.

Observationally-based Metrics of Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemical Variables are Essential for Evaluating Earth System Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean is central to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Due to its complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes and topography. Understanding how the ocean carries heat and carbon into its interior and how the observed wind changes are affecting this uptake is essential to accurately projecting transient climate sensitivity. Observationally-based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate models. As the community shifts toward Earth system models with explicit carbon simulations, more direct observations of important biogeochemical parameters, like those obtained from the biogeochemically-sensored floats that are part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, are essential. One goal of future observing systems should be to create observationally-based benchmarks that will lead to reducing uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Peng; Chou, Ming-Dah; Arking, Albert

1987-01-01

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections.

PubMed

Bardeen, Charles G; Garcia, Rolando R; Toon, Owen B; Conley, Andrew J

2017-09-05

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth's surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, Charles G.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Toon, Owen B.; Conley, Andrew J.

2017-09-01

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

PubMed Central

Garcia, Rolando R.; Toon, Owen B.; Conley, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition. PMID:28827324

Glaciological reconstruction of Holocene ice margins in northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, S. D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.

2014-12-01

The past few decades of climate warming have brought overall margin retreat to the Greenland Ice Sheet. In order to place recent and projected changes in context, we are undertaking a collaborative field-modeling study that aims to reconstruct the Holocene history of ice-margin fluctuation near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W), and also along the North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W). Fieldwork reported by Kelly et al. (2013) reveals that ice in the study areas was less extensive than at present ca. 4700 (GIS) and ca. 880 (NIC) cal. years BP, presumably in response to a warmer climate. We are now exploring Holocene ice-climate coupling using the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM). Our approach is to first test what imposed climate anomalies can afford steady state ice margins in accord with field data. A second test encompasses transient simulation of the Holocene, with climate boundary conditions supplied by existing paleo runs of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and a climate forcing signal derived from Greenland ice cores. In both cases, the full ice sheet is simulated at 10 km resolution with nested domains at 0.5 km for the study areas. UMISM experiments are underway, and results will be reported at the meeting.

Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, L. B.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; de Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

2014-12-01

During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

The role of bias in simulation of the Indian monsoon and its relationship to predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, P.

2016-12-01

Confidence in future projections of how climate change will affect the Indian monsoon is currently limited by- among other things-model biases. That is, the systematic error in simulating the mean present day climate. An important priority question in seamless prediction involves the role of the mean state. How much of the prediction error in imperfect models stems from a biased mean state (itself a result of many interacting process errors), and how much stems from the flow dependence of processes during an oscillation or variation we are trying to predict? Using simple but effective nudging techniques, we are able to address this question in a clean and incisive framework that teases apart the roles of the mean state vs. transient flow dependence in constraining predictability. The role of bias in model fidelity of simulations of the Indian monsoon is investigated in CAM5, and the relationship to predictability in remote regions in the "free" (non-nudged) domain is explored.

Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouttes, N.; Paillard, D.; Roche, D. M.; Waelbroeck, C.; Kageyama, M.; Lourantou, A.; Michel, E.; Bopp, L.

2012-01-01

During the last termination (from ~18 000 years ago to ~9000 years ago), the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a coupled climate-carbon model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependent diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO2, and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ13C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 years ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. In this scenario, we make the hypothesis that sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario, it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the long-term CO2 increase during the last termination in agreement with ice core data. The atmospheric δ13C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouttes, N.; Paillard, D.; Roche, D. M.; Waelbroeck, C.; Kageyama, M.; Lourantou, A.; Michel, E.; Bopp, L.

2011-06-01

During the last termination (from ~18 000 yr ago to ~9000 yr ago) the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a climate-carbon coupled model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependant diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO2, and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ13C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 yr ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. Sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the CO2 increase during the last termination in agreement with data. The atmospheric δ13C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Bausch, Alexandra; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Xu, Baiqing; Edwards. Ross; Bisiaux, Marion; McConnell, Joe

2013-01-01

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Calov, R.; Ganopolski, A.

2011-12-01

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (PPT, ca. 3.3-2.4 Ma BP) marks a shift in the Earth's climate and is believed to coincide with the inception of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. This transition is not only characterized by a gradual reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration, paleo records also show a strengthening in the amplitude of δ18O data and intensified ice rafted debris deposition in the North Atlantic. Previous modeling studies have demonstrated that the drop in atmospheric CO2 plays an important role in the glaciation of the NH ice sheets, and more specifically, it is considered to be the primary cause of the glaciation of Greenland. Here we apply a novel approach to produce transient simulations of the entire PPT, in order to study the glaciation of Greenland and the NH ice sheets and additionally, to investigate which conditions are necessary for full-scale glaciation. The fully-coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to explore the effects of a suite of orbital and CO2 forcing scenarios on total NH glaciation. CLIMBER-2 includes low-resolution sub-models of the atmosphere, vegetation, ocean and ice sheets - the latter is designed to simulate the big NH ice sheets with a rather low resolution (and high computational efficiency). As a refinement, the results of the global simulations are then used to force regional simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) using the higher resolution (20 km) regional climate-ice sheet model, REMBO-SICOPOLIS. We present results of transient simulations driven by orbital forcing and several CO2 reduction scenarios that are consistent with best estimates from data for this time period. We discuss the growth and persistence of the NH ice sheets in terms of the forcing and feedbacks involved. Additionally, we present a set of simulations with the growth of the NH ice sheets disabled, in order to quantify the effect the large ice sheets have on global and regional temperature anomalies. By simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in our high resolution coupled global-regional approach, we identify with greater precision, the conditions neccesary for inception of the GIS and link these to global climatic changes.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dargaville, R.J.; Heimann, Martin; McGuire, A.D.; Prentice, I.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Joos, F.; Clein, Joy S.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Kaplan, J.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Sitch, S.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2002-01-01

An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.

Unraveling the martian water cycle with high-resolution global climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pottier, Alizée; Forget, François; Montmessin, Franck; Navarro, Thomas; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Szantai, André; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste

2017-07-01

Global climate modeling of the Mars water cycle is usually performed at relatively coarse resolution (200 - 300km), which may not be sufficient to properly represent the impact of waves, fronts, topography effects on the detailed structure of clouds and surface ice deposits. Here, we present new numerical simulations of the annual water cycle performed at a resolution of 1° × 1° (∼ 60 km in latitude). The model includes the radiative effects of clouds, whose influence on the thermal structure and atmospheric dynamics is significant, thus we also examine simulations with inactive clouds to distinguish the direct impact of resolution on circulation and winds from the indirect impact of resolution via water ice clouds. To first order, we find that the high resolution does not dramatically change the behavior of the system, and that simulations performed at ∼ 200 km resolution capture well the behavior of the simulated water cycle and Mars climate. Nevertheless, a detailed comparison between high and low resolution simulations, with reference to observations, reveal several significant changes that impact our understanding of the water cycle active today on Mars. The key northern cap edge dynamics are affected by an increase in baroclinic wave strength, with a complication of northern summer dynamics. South polar frost deposition is modified, with a westward longitudinal shift, since southern dynamics are also influenced. Baroclinic wave mode transitions are observed. New transient phenomena appear, like spiral and streak clouds, already documented in the observations. Atmospheric circulation cells in the polar region exhibit a large variability and are fine structured, with slope winds. Most modeled phenomena affected by high resolution give a picture of a more turbulent planet, inducing further variability. This is challenging for long-period climate studies.

Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Kjellström, Erik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sonnenborg, Torben; Meier, Markus; Grinsted, Aslak

2015-04-01

Regional climate models have been used extensively since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region published in 2008, not the least for studies of Europe (and including the Baltic Sea catchment area). Therefore, conclusions regarding climate model results have a better foundation than was the case for the first BACC report of 2008. This presentation will report model results regarding future climate. What is the state of understanding about future human-driven climate change? We will cover regional models, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, ocean modelling and sea-level change as it is projected for the Baltic Sea region. Collections of regional model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for example, financed through the European 5th Framework Programme and the World Climate Research Programme Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, have made it possible to obtain an increasingly robust estimation of model uncertainty. While the first Baltic Sea assessment mainly used four simulations from the European 5th Framework Programme PRUDENCE project, an ensemble of 13 transient regional simulations with twice the horizontal resolution reaching the end of the 21st century has been available from the ENSEMBLES project; therefore it has been possible to obtain more quantitative assessments of model uncertainty. The literature about future climate change in the Baltic Sea region is largely built upon the ENSEMBLES project. Also within statistical downscaling, a considerable number of papers have been published, encompassing now the application of non-linear statistical models, projected changes in extremes and correction of climate model biases. The uncertainty of hydrological change has received increasing attention since the previous Baltic Sea assessment. Several studies on the propagation of uncertainties originating in GCMs, RCMs, and emission scenarios are presented. The number of studies on uncertainties related to downscaling and impact models is relatively small, but more are emerging. A large number of coupled climate-environmental scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea have been performed within the BONUS+ projects (ECOSUPPORT, INFLOW, AMBER and Baltic-C (2009-2011)), using various combinations of output from GCMs, RCMs, hydrological models and scenarios for load and emission of nutrients as forcing for Baltic Sea models. Such a large ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea has never before been produced and enables for the first time an estimation of uncertainties.

Development of a biosphere hydrological model considering vegetation dynamics and its evaluation at basin scale under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Ishidaira, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

SummaryThe biosphere and hydrosphere are intrinsically coupled. The scientific question is if there is a substantial change in one component such as vegetation cover, how will the other components such as transpiration and runoff generation respond, especially under climate change conditions? Stand-alone hydrological models have a detailed description of hydrological processes but do not sufficiently parameterize vegetation as a dynamic component. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. Therefore, both hydrological models and DGVMs have their limitations as well as advantages for addressing this question. In this study a biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) is developed by coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD), with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at basin scale and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The application and validation of the LPJH model to four basins representing a variety of climate and vegetation conditions shows that the performance of LPJH is much better than that of the original LPJ and is similar to that of stand-alone hydrological models for monthly and daily runoff simulation at the basin scale. It is argued that the LPJH model gives more reasonable hydrological simulation since it considers both the spatial variability of soil moisture and vegetation dynamics, which make the runoff generation mechanism more reliable. As an example, it is shown that changing atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in runoff increases in humid basins and decreases in arid basins. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore LPJH potentially provides a powerful tool for simulating vegetation response to climate changes in the biosphere hydrological cycle.

The evolution of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation from 1960-2100 in simulations with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberländer, Sophie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kubin, Anne; Abalichin, Janna; Meul, Stefanie; Jöckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

First results of research performed within the new DFG Research Unit Stratospheric Change and its Role for Climate Prediction (SHARP) will be presented. SHARP investigates past and future changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition to improve the understanding of global climate change and the accuracy of climate change predictions. SHARP combines the efforts of eight German research institutes and expertise in state-of-the-art climate modelling and observations. Within the scope of the scientific sub-project SHARP-BDC (Brewer-Dobson-Circulation) the past and future evolution of the BDC in an atmosphere with changing composition will be analysed. Radiosonde data show an annual mean cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere over the past few decades (Thompson and Solomon, 2005). Several independent model simulations indicate an acceleration of the BDC due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations with direct impact on the exchange of air masses between the troposphere and stratosphere (e.g., Butchart et al, 2006). In contrast, from balloon-born measurements no significant acceleration in the BDC could be identified (Engel et al, 2008). This disagreement between observations and model analyses motivates further studies. For the future, expected changes in planetary wave generation and propagation in an atmosphere with increasing GHG concentrations are a major source of uncertainty for predicting future levels of stratospheric composition. To analyse and interpret the past and future evolution of the BDC, results from a transient multi-decadal simulation with the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC will be presented. The model has been integrated from 1960 to 2100 following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of GHGs, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice. The role of increasing GHG concentrations for the BDC will be assessed by comparing the SCN2d-results with a ‘non-climate change' (NCC) simulation, in which greenhouse gases have been kept fixed at their 1960 concentrations.

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Fire and reduced vigor facilitate vegetation shifts: MC2 results for the conterminous US with CMIP5 climate futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.; Baker, B.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

Climate variability and a warming trend during the 21st century ensures fuel build-up and episodic catastrophic wildfires. We used downscaled (2.5 arcmin) CMIP5 climate futures from 20 models under RCP 8.5 to run the dynamic global vegetation model MC2 over the conterminous US and identify key drivers of land cover change. We show regional and temporal differences in the magnitude of projected C losses due to fire over the 21st century. We also look at the vigor (NPP/LAI) of forest lands and estimate the loss in C capture due to declines in production as well as the increase in heterotrophic respiration due to increased mortality. We compare simulated the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial biomes and the risk of carbon losses through disturbance. We quantify uncertainty in model results by showing the distribution of possible future impacts under 20 futures. We explore the effects of land use and highlight the challenges we met to simulate credible transient management practices throughout the 20th century and into the future.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.; Aamaas, B.; Amann, M.; Baker, L. H.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Boucher, O.; Cherian, R.; Collins, W.; Daskalakis, N.; Dusinska, M.; Eckhardt, S.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Harju, M.; Heyes, C.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Hao, J.; Im, U.; Kanakidou, M.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Law, K. S.; Lund, M. T.; Maas, R.; MacIntosh, C. R.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Olivié, D.; Quaas, J.; Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.-C.; Rumbold, S. T.; Samset, B. H.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Shine, K. P.; Skeie, R. B.; Wang, S.; Yttri, K. E.; Zhu, T.

2015-06-01

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs: methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for Northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20 year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon emissions by about 50 and 80%, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11-12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with these ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70±0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22±0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22±0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ∼22% to this response and CH4 78%. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90% of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and black carbon (BC) specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, largely because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea-ice responses may counteract the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49) largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in Southern Europe, where the surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6-21) mm yr-1 (more than 4% of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.; Aamaas, B.; Amann, M.; Baker, L. H.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Boucher, O.; Cherian, R.; Collins, W.; Daskalakis, N.; Dusinska, M.; Eckhardt, S.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Harju, M.; Heyes, C.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Hao, J.; Im, U.; Kanakidou, M.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Law, K. S.; Lund, M. T.; Maas, R.; MacIntosh, C. R.; Myhre, G.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Olivié, D.; Quaas, J.; Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.-C.; Rumbold, S. T.; Samset, B. H.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Shine, K. P.; Skeie, R. B.; Wang, S.; Yttri, K. E.; Zhu, T.

2015-09-01

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11-12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6-21) mm yr-1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Simulating vegetation dynamics in Chile from 21ka BP to present: Effects of climate change on vegetation functions and cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Christian; Liakka, Johan; Schmid, Manuel; Fuentes, Juan-Pablo; Ehlers, Todd A.; Hickler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Vegetation composition and establishment is strongly dependent on climate conditions but also a result of vegetation dynamics (competition for light, water and nutrients). In addition, vegetation exerts control over the development of landscapes as it mediates the climatic and hydrological forces shaping the terrain via hillslope and fluvial processes. At the same time, topography as well as soil texture and soil depth affect the microclimate, soil water storage and rooting space that is defining the environmental envelope for vegetation development. Within the EarthShape research program (www.earthshape.net) we evaluate these interactions by simulating the co-evolution of landscape and vegetation with a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (LandLab). LPJ-GUESS is a mechanistic model driven by daily or monthly weather data and explicitly simulates vegetation physiology, succession, competition and water and nutrient cycling. Here we present the results of first transient vegetation simulations from 21kyr BP to present-day using the TraCE-21ka climate dataset for four focus sites along the coastal cordillera of Chile that are exposed to a substantial meridional climate gradient (ranging from hyper-arid to humid-temperate conditions). We show that the warming occurring in the region from LGM to present, in addition to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, led to a shift in vegetation composition and surface cover. Future work will show how these changes resonate in the dynamics of hillslope and fluvial erosion and ultimately bi-directional feedback mechanisms of vegetation development and landscape evolution/ soil formation (see also companion presentation by Schmid et al., this session).

Climate Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-03-01

to each other in dimension- less-parameter space (RoT = 0.81 and Ro_, = 0.79, respectively), the transient is shorter in duration in the 5 - wave amplitude...9.8°C is traversed from the opposite direction (during the time interval 13,090 s t < 14,870 rot), the 5 - wave configuration remains during the...9.2°C produces a slight change in the 5 - wave amplitude vacillation pattern. In particular, the amplitude of wave number 5 decreases , ,^w

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

Idealized climate change simulations with a high-resolution physical model: HadGEM3-GC2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senior, Catherine A.; Andrews, Timothy; Burton, Chantelle; Chadwick, Robin; Copsey, Dan; Graham, Tim; Hyder, Pat; Jackson, Laura; McDonald, Ruth; Ridley, Jeff; Ringer, Mark; Tsushima, Yoko

2016-06-01

Idealized climate change simulations with a new physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC2 from The Met Office Hadley Centre are presented and contrasted with the earlier MOHC model, HadGEM2-ES. The role of atmospheric resolution is also investigated. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is 1.9 K/2.1 K at N216/N96 and Effective Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is 3.1 K/3.2 K at N216/N96. These are substantially lower than HadGEM2-ES (TCR: 2.5 K; ECS: 4.6 K) arising from a combination of changes in the size of climate feedbacks. While the change in the net cloud feedback between HadGEM3 and HadGEM2 is relatively small, there is a change in sign of its longwave and a strengthening of its shortwave components. At a global scale, there is little impact of the increase in atmospheric resolution on the future climate change signal and even at a broad regional scale, many features are robust including tropical rainfall changes, however, there are some significant exceptions. For the North Atlantic and western Europe, the tripolar pattern of winter storm changes found in most CMIP5 models is little impacted by resolution but for the most intense storms, there is a larger percentage increase in number at higher resolution than at lower resolution. Arctic sea-ice sensitivity shows a larger dependence on resolution than on atmospheric physics.

Storylines of socio-economic and climatic drivers for land use and their hydrological impacts in alpine catchments - the STELLA project example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Ulrich; Formayer, Herbert; Förster, Kristian; Marke, Thomas; Meißl, Gertraud; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Friederike; Themessl, Matthias

2016-04-01

Future land use in Alpine catchments is controlled by the evolution of socio-economy and climate. Estimates of their coupled development should hence fulfill the principles of plausibility (be convincing) and consistency (be unambiguous). In the project STELLA, coupled future climate and land use scenarios are used as input in a hydrological modelling exercise with the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim of the project is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The so-called „storylines" of future coupled climate and forest/land use management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy have jointly been developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors. The climate background is given by simulations for the A1B (temperature conditions like today in Merano/Italy, 46.7°N) and RCP 8.5 (temperature conditions like today in Bologna/Italy, 44.5°N) emission scenarios. These two climate scenarios were combined with three potential socio-economic developments („local"/„glocal"/ „superglobal"), each in a positive and in a negative specification. From these twelve storylines of coupled climate/land use future, a set of four storylines was selected to be used in transient hydrological modelling experiments. Historical simulations of the water balance for the test site reveal the pattern of land use being the most prominent factor for the spatial distribution of its components. A new prototype for a snow-canopy interaction simulation module provides explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands in the catchment. This new canopy module will be used to model the coupled climate/land use future storylines for the Brixental. The aim is to quantify the effects of climate change and land use on the water balance and streamflow, both separately and in their respective combination.

Using prior information to separate the temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing from that of aerosols - Estimating the transient climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurer, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabriele

2016-04-01

The evaluation of the transient climate response (TCR) is of critical importance to policy makers as it can be used to calculate a simple estimate of the expected warming given predicted greenhouse gas emissions. Previous studies using optimal detection techniques have been able to estimate a TCR value from the historic record using simulations from some of the models which took part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) but have found that others give unconstrained results. At least partly this is due to degeneracy between the greenhouse gas and aerosol signals which makes separation of the temperature response to these forcings problematic. Here we re-visit this important topic by using an adapted optimal detection analysis within a Bayesian framework. We account for observational uncertainty by the use of an ensemble of instrumental observations, and model uncertainty by combining the results from several different models. This framework allows the use of prior information which is found to help separate the response to the different forcings leading to a more constrained estimate of TCR.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Pankaj; Wiltshire, Andrew; Mathison, Camilla; Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Christensen, Jens H; Gobiet, Andreas; Saeed, Fahad; Hagemann, Stefan; Jacob, Daniela

2013-12-01

This study presents the possible regional climate change over South Asia with a focus over India as simulated by three very high resolution regional climate models (RCMs). One of the most striking results is a robust increase in monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century but regional differences in strength. First the ability of RCMs to simulate the monsoon climate is analyzed. For this purpose all three RCMs are forced with ECMWF reanalysis data for the period 1989-2008 at a horizontal resolution of ~25 km. The results are compared against independent observations. In order to simulate future climate the models are driven by lateral boundary conditions from two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5-MPIOM and HadCM3) using the SRES A1B scenario, except for one RCM, which only used data from one GCM. The results are presented for the full transient simulation period 1970-2099 and also for several time slices. The analysis concentrates on precipitation and temperature over land. All models show a clear signal of gradually wide-spread warming throughout the 21st century. The ensemble-mean warming over India is 1.5°C at the end of 2050, whereas it is 3.9°C at the end of century with respect to 1970-1999. The pattern of projected precipitation changes shows considerable spatial variability, with an increase in precipitation over the peninsular of India and coastal areas and, either no change or decrease further inland. From the analysis of a larger ensemble of global climate models using the A1B scenario a wide spread warming (~3.2°C) and an overall increase (~8.5%) in mean monsoon precipitation by the end of the 21st century is very likely. The influence of the driving GCM on the projected precipitation change simulated with each RCM is as strong as the variability among the RCMs driven with one. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

FGOALS-s2 simulation of upper-level jet streams over East Asia: Mean state bias and synoptic-scale transient eddy activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun

2013-05-01

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux ( E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

2003-01-01

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

PubMed Central

Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-01-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

PubMed

Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-13

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

2018-05-01

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

A transient stochastic weather generator incorporating climate model uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenis, Vassilis; Pinamonti, Valentina; Hall, Jim W.; Kilsby, Chris G.

2015-11-01

Stochastic weather generators (WGs), which provide long synthetic time series of weather variables such as rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET), have found widespread use in water resources modelling. When conditioned upon the changes in climatic statistics (change factors, CFs) predicted by climate models, WGs provide a useful tool for climate impacts assessment and adaption planning. The latest climate modelling exercises have involved large numbers of global and regional climate models integrations, designed to explore the implications of uncertainties in the climate model formulation and parameter settings: so called 'perturbed physics ensembles' (PPEs). In this paper we show how these climate model uncertainties can be propagated through to impact studies by testing multiple vectors of CFs, each vector derived from a different sample from a PPE. We combine this with a new methodology to parameterise the projected time-evolution of CFs. We demonstrate how, when conditioned upon these time-dependent CFs, an existing, well validated and widely used WG can be used to generate non-stationary simulations of future climate that are consistent with probabilistic outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble. The WG enables extensive sampling of natural variability and climate model uncertainty, providing the basis for development of robust water resources management strategies in the context of a non-stationary climate.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Modelling uncertainties in the climate of the last millennium: the ASTER project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loutre, M. F.; Mouchet, A.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.

2009-04-01

The LOVECLIM model (Driesschaert et al., 2007; Goosse et al., 2007) is used to simulate the climate of the last millennium with several ‘climate' parameter sets yielding different sensitivities of the climate and the carbon cycle model. The purpose of these simulations is twofold. We intend to assess first the role of the carbon cycle on the climate, and second, the ability of the different selected parameter sets to drive the model within the range of the observed climate, and further to assess the uncertainty related to these parameters. The high frequency variability of the forcings is taken into account. For each set of parameters, LOVECLIM is driven by the natural evolution of insolation, solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosol concentrations due to volcanic activity as well as by changes caused by human activities such as deforestation, CO2 emission or concentration changes, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases other than CO2 (including ozone) and in sulphate aerosol load. Several transient experiments are conducted for each parameter set. A first transient simulation (Conc) is forced with reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration. In the next two simulations, the emissions of carbon were taken into account, the model computing the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration. First (EMIS), the emissions due both to the land use changes and the fossil fuel burning are provided. Second (Efor), only the emissions from fossil fuel burning are provided in addition to the vegetation change related to deforestation. The Northern Hemisphere annual mean temperatures simulated by the model according to the different parameter sets and carbon cycle sensitivities and the different experimental setups do not show striking differences compared to the NH temperature recontructions (IPCC, 2007). However, the simulated values are generally in the lower range of the reconstructions in the interval 900-1200 AD. Moreover some experiments are displaying a too large warming during the last century as well as a large variability occasionally out of the range of observation. The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the last century is strongly depending on how the anthropogenic emission and the land-use scenario are taken into account. Difference in atmospheric CO2 concentration can reach up to 50 ppmv. All the parameter sets are not able to reproduce the decreasing trend of the Arctic summer sea ice as recorded over the last decades. Parameter sets corresponding to the largest climate sensitivity lead to a strong reduction of the summer sea ice. However, different scenarios for deforestation lead to significantly different time evolution of the NH Summer sea ice area for the same parameter set. The ocean C storage remains within the range of estimates when CO2 is prescribed. However, values are much larger when both fossil fuel and land cover change emission are prescribed. The deforestation emissions as computed by the model lead to intermediate cumulative CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., Goosse H., Huybrechts P., Janssens I., Mouchet A., Munhoven G., Brovkin V., and Weber S. L., 2007. Modelling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34:L1070, 2007. Goosse H., Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., and Loutre M.F., 2007. Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century Clim. Past 3, 683-692. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Bias and robustness of uncertainty components estimates in transient climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hingray, Benoit; Blanchet, Juliette; Jean-Philippe, Vidal

2016-04-01

A critical issue in climate change studies is the estimation of uncertainties in projections along with the contribution of the different uncertainty sources, including scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty and internal variability. Quantifying the different uncertainty sources faces actually different problems. For instance and for the sake of simplicity, an estimate of model uncertainty is classically obtained from the empirical variance of the climate responses obtained for the different modeling chains. These estimates are however biased. Another difficulty arises from the limited number of members that are classically available for most modeling chains. In this case, the climate response of one given chain and the effect of its internal variability may be actually difficult if not impossible to separate. The estimate of scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability components are thus likely to be not really robust. We explore the importance of the bias and the robustness of the estimates for two classical Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches: a Single Time approach (STANOVA), based on the only data available for the considered projection lead time and a time series based approach (QEANOVA), which assumes quasi-ergodicity of climate outputs over the whole available climate simulation period (Hingray and Saïd, 2014). We explore both issues for a simple but classical configuration where uncertainties in projections are composed of two single sources: model uncertainty and internal climate variability. The bias in model uncertainty estimates is explored from theoretical expressions of unbiased estimators developed for both ANOVA approaches. The robustness of uncertainty estimates is explored for multiple synthetic ensembles of time series projections generated with MonteCarlo simulations. For both ANOVA approaches, when the empirical variance of climate responses is used to estimate model uncertainty, the bias is always positive. It can be especially high with STANOVA. In the most critical configurations, when the number of members available for each modeling chain is small (< 3) and when internal variability explains most of total uncertainty variance (75% or more), the overestimation is higher than 100% of the true model uncertainty variance. The bias can be considerably reduced with a time series ANOVA approach, owing to the multiple time steps accounted for. The longer the transient time period used for the analysis, the larger the reduction. When a quasi-ergodic ANOVA approach is applied to decadal data for the whole 1980-2100 period, the bias is reduced by a factor 2.5 to 20 depending on the projection lead time. In all cases, the bias is likely to be not negligible for a large number of climate impact studies resulting in a likely large overestimation of the contribution of model uncertainty to total variance. For both approaches, the robustness of all uncertainty estimates is higher when more members are available, when internal variability is smaller and/or the response-to-uncertainty ratio is higher. QEANOVA estimates are much more robust than STANOVA ones: QEANOVA simulated confidence intervals are roughly 3 to 5 times smaller than STANOVA ones. Excepted for STANOVA when less than 3 members is available, the robustness is rather high for total uncertainty and moderate for internal variability estimates. For model uncertainty or response-to-uncertainty ratio estimates, the robustness is conversely low for QEANOVA to very low for STANOVA. In the most critical configurations (small number of member, large internal variability), large over- or underestimation of uncertainty components is very thus likely. To propose relevant uncertainty analyses and avoid misleading interpretations, estimates of uncertainty components should be therefore bias corrected and ideally come with estimates of their robustness. This work is part of the COMPLEX Project (European Collaborative Project FP7-ENV-2012 number: 308601; http://www.complex.ac.uk/). Hingray, B., Saïd, M., 2014. Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multimodel multireplicate ensemble of climate projections. J.Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00629.1 Hingray, B., Blanchet, J. (revision) Unbiased estimators for uncertainty components in transient climate projections. J. Climate Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Vidal, J.P. (revision) Robustness of uncertainty components estimates in climate projections. J.Climate

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

2018-02-01

Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

Effectiveness and Tradeoffs between Portfolios of Adaptation Strategies Addressing Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Van Lienden, B.; Das, T.; Munevar, A.; Young, C. A.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Huntington, J. L.

2013-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the major agricultural areas in the United States. The Central Valley Project (CVP) is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation to serve multiple purposes including generating approximately 4.3 million gigawatt hours of hydropower and providing, on average, 5 million acre-feet of water per year to irrigate approximately 3 million acres of land in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins, 600,000 acre-feet per year of water for urban users, and 800,000 acre-feet of annual supplies for environmental purposes. The development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies requires assessing multiple risks including potential climate changes as well as uncertainties in future socioeconomic conditions. In this study, a scenario-based analytical approach was employed by combining three potential 21st century socioeconomic futures with six representative climate and sea level change projections developed using a transient hybrid delta ensemble method from an archive of 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP3 global climate model simulations to form 18 future socioeconomic-climate scenarios. To better simulate the effects of climate changes on agricultural water demands, analyses of historical agricultural meteorological station records were employed to develop estimates of future changes in solar radiation and atmospheric humidity from the GCM simulated temperature and precipitation. Projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were computed directly by weighting SRES emissions scenarios included in each representative climate projection. These results were used as inputs to a calibrated crop water use, growth and yield model to simulate the effects of climate changes on the evapotranspiration and yields of major crops grown in the Central Valley. Existing hydrologic, reservoir operations, water quality, hydropower, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and both urban and agricultural economic models were integrated into a suite of decision support tools to assess the impacts of future socioeconomic-climate uncertainties on key performance metrics for the CVP, State Water Project and other Central Valley water management systems under current regulatory requirements. Four thematic portfolios consisting of regional and local adaptation strategies including changes in reservoir operations, increased water conservation, storage and conveyance were developed and simulated to evaluate their potential effectiveness in meeting delivery reliability, water quality, environmental, hydropower, GHG, urban and agricultural economic performance criteria. The results indicate that the portfolios exhibit a considerable range of effectiveness depending on the socioeconomic-climate scenario. For most criteria, the portfolios were more sensitive to climate projections than socioeconomic assumptions. However, the results demonstrate that important tradeoffs occur between portfolios depending on the performance criteria considered.

Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

2018-06-01

The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

DOE PAGES

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2012-05-15

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Renyi; Saravanan, R.

2014-01-01

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m-2 at the Earth’s surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

2015-04-01

Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more productive. Given the limitations of an ESM, the findings of our study show that changes in the kind and intensity of land use have minor effects on the climate. Consequently, implications of extreme land use on e.g. human security, conflict or migration can be investigated in offline simulations.

Climate Variability In The Euro-atlantic Sector As Simulated By Echam4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, I.; Corte-Real, J.; Ramos, A.; Conde, F.

The atmosphere is a fundamental component of the climate system and its influence in local and global climates results from its composition, structure and motion. The best available tools to simulate future climates are coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 (T42 L19)[1] being a very relevant exam- ple of such a model due to its elaborated parametrizations of physical processes. The purpose of this work is twofold : (1) to assess the ability of ECHAM4 in reproducing the reference climate of 1961-1990, over the Euro-Atlantic sector (29N-71N; 67W- 59E) in terms of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and total precipitation; (2) to evaluate the expected changes of the same climate elements in a warmer world. To attain the first goal the ECHAMSs control run output is compared with observed data obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU data set)[2-5]; to achieve the second objective, the modelSs control run is compared with its transient run forced by greenhouse gases. In both cases, comparisons are made in terms of mean values, variability in space and time and extremes. References [1] E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric gen- eral circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp. [2] M. Hulme, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, T. Jiang, E.M. Barrow, and C. Turney (1995), Construction of a 1961-90 European climatology for climate change impacts and mod- elling applications, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1333-1363. [3] M. Hulme (1994), The cost of climate data U a European experience, Weather, 49, 168-175. [4] M. Hulme, and M.G. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation clima- tologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Climate, 10, 1099-1113. 1 [5] C.J. Willmot, S.M. Robeson and M.J. Janis (1996), Comparison of approaches for estimating time-averaged precipitation using data from the United States, Int. J. Cli- matol., 16, 1103-1115. 2

Stochastic soil water balance under seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2015-01-01

The analysis of soil water partitioning in seasonally dry climates necessarily requires careful consideration of the periodic climatic forcing at the intra-annual timescale in addition to daily scale variabilities. Here, we introduce three new extensions to a stochastic soil moisture model which yields seasonal evolution of soil moisture and relevant hydrological fluxes. These approximations allow seasonal climatic forcings (e.g. rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) to be fully resolved, extending the analysis of soil water partitioning to account explicitly for the seasonal amplitude and the phase difference between the climatic forcings. The results provide accurate descriptions of probabilistic soil moisture dynamics under seasonal climates without requiring extensive numerical simulations. We also find that the transfer of soil moisture between the wet to the dry season is responsible for hysteresis in the hydrological response, showing asymmetrical trajectories in the mean soil moisture and in the transient Budyko's curves during the ‘dry-down‘ versus the ‘rewetting‘ phases of the year. Furthermore, in some dry climates where rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are in-phase, annual evapotranspiration can be shown to increase because of inter-seasonal soil moisture transfer, highlighting the importance of soil water storage in the seasonal context. PMID:25663808

Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

PubMed

Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

2015-09-02

Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years.

PubMed

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu; Cheng, Jun; Zhu, Jiang

2016-06-22

Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection.

Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years

PubMed Central

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu; Cheng, Jun; Zhu, Jiang

2016-01-01

Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection. PMID:27328616

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.

PubMed

Zachos, J C; Lohmann, K C; Walker, J C; Wise, S W

1993-03-01

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

1993-01-01

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, K.

2005-12-01

I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

A Realization of Bias Correction Method in the GMAO Coupled System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Yehui; Koster, Randal; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max

2018-01-01

Over the past several decades, a tremendous effort has been made to improve model performance in the simulation of the climate system. The cold or warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the tropics is still a problem common to most coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). The precipitation biases in CGCMs are also accompanied by SST and surface wind biases. The deficiencies and biases over the equatorial oceans through their influence on the Walker circulation likely contribute the precipitation biases over land surfaces. In this study, we introduce an approach in the CGCM modeling to correct model biases. This approach utilizes the history of the model's short-term forecasting errors and their seasonal dependence to modify model's tendency term and to minimize its climate drift. The study shows that such an approach removes most of model climate biases. A number of other aspects of the model simulation (e.g. extratropical transient activities) are also improved considerably due to the imposed pre-processed initial 3-hour model drift corrections. Because many regional biases in the GEOS-5 CGCM are common amongst other current models, our approaches and findings are applicable to these other models as well.

Primary production sensitivity to phytoplankton light attenuation parameter increases with transient forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvale, Karin F.; Meissner, Katrin J.

2017-10-01

Treatment of the underwater light field in ocean biogeochemical models has been attracting increasing interest, with some models moving towards more complex parameterisations. We conduct a simple sensitivity study of a typical, highly simplified parameterisation. In our study, we vary the phytoplankton light attenuation parameter over a range constrained by data during both pre-industrial equilibrated and future climate scenario RCP8.5. In equilibrium, lower light attenuation parameters (weaker self-shading) shift net primary production (NPP) towards the high latitudes, while higher values of light attenuation (stronger shelf-shading) shift NPP towards the low latitudes. Climate forcing magnifies this relationship through changes in the distribution of nutrients both within and between ocean regions. Where and how NPP responds to climate forcing can determine the magnitude and sign of global NPP trends in this high CO2 future scenario. Ocean oxygen is particularly sensitive to parameter choice. Under higher CO2 concentrations, two simulations establish a strong biogeochemical feedback between the Southern Ocean and low-latitude Pacific that highlights the potential for regional teleconnection. Our simulations serve as a reminder that shifts in fundamental properties (e.g. light attenuation by phytoplankton) over deep time have the potential to alter global biogeochemistry.

The Influence of Global Climate Changes on Storm-Tracks of Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Y.; Krupchatnikov, V. N.

2012-12-01

Non-stationary eddies in mid-latitude storm-tracks are an important mechanism of energy, moment and moisture transfer in climate system [1]. Baroclinic eddies bring heavy rains and other hazard weather phenomena in the middle latitudes, play an important role in the global energy and the hydrological cycle. Recently, the increase of a cyclones rate at high latitudes with their frequency decrease in the second half of the 20th century was discovered using reanalysis data [2,3]. However, there is still no common point of view about how storm-track's distribution and intensity will be changed under the climate change influence [4,5]. In our work we investigate a variation of transient eddies general propagation tracks as a result of the global climate change effect. Using global large-scale intermediate complexity model of climate system [6] the numerical experiment was provided for the time period from 850 to 3000 year with a scenario of greenhouse gases influence on climate. From 850 to 2005 this impact was set according to the protocol "Historical simulations" of CMIP5 [7]. For 21th century anthropogenic effects were set according to the most aggressive scenario RCP 8.5 [8]. For the period 22-23 centuries CO2 concentration was on the level of 2100 year, and for 24-30 centuries it returned to pre-industrial value linearly in time of 100 years. Using a filter [9] we defined three variation intervals: low-frequency, medium-frequency and high-frequency. In our work we paid attention to medium-scale waves (i.e. 2-8 days). Two seasons were chosen: winter and summer. For each season we considered average fields of parameters characterizing poleward heat flux at 700 mb and transient eddies variance at 250 mb. Besides of the sensitivity of storm-track dynamic we considered some other features of "warm" climate. The work is partially supported by The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation #(#07.514.11.4044), RFBR grants #10-07-00547, #11-05-01190, and SB RAS projects 4.31.1.5, 4.31.2.7 and 131. Reference: 1. Hoskins, B.J. and P.J. Valdes. On the existence of storm-tracks. J Atmos Sci, 47, pp. 1854-1864, 1990. 2. Lambert, S.J. and J.C. Fyfe. Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Climate Dynamics, 26:713-728, 2006. 3. Geng, Q. and M. Sugi. Variability of the North Atlantic cyclone activity in winter analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Climate, 14:3863-3873, 2001. 4. Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside. Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J Climate, 22:2276-2301, 2009. 5. Brayshaw, D.J., B. Hoskins, and M. Blackburn. The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. part i: land-sea-contrast and orography. J Atmos Sci, 66 pp. 2539-2559, 2009. 6. Fraedrich K., Jansen H., et al. The Planet Simulator: Towards a user friendly model // Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2005. Vol. 14, N. 3. P. 299-304. 7. http://climate.uvic.ca/EMICAR5 8. Meinshausen M., Smith S., et al. The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2500 // Climatic Change.- 2011.- Special Issue on RCPs. 9. Blackmon M.L. A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere // J. Atmos. Sci.1976. V. 33, N. 8. P. 1607-1623.

Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2015-04-01

Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different components: tides, short time atmospheric process influence (1-30 days), seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Every sea level component is statistically compared with data from local tide gauges.

Sequence of events from the onset to the demise of the Last Interglacial: Evaluating strengths and limitations of chronologies used in climatic archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govin, A.; Capron, E.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Verheyden, S.; Ghaleb, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; St-Onge, G.; Stoner, J. S.; Bassinot, F.; Bazin, L.; Blunier, T.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; El Ouahabi, A.; Genty, D.; Gersonde, R.; Jimenez-Amat, P.; Landais, A.; Martrat, B.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Parrenin, F.; Seidenkrantz, M.-S.; Veres, D.; Waelbroeck, C.; Zahn, R.

2015-12-01

The Last Interglacial (LIG) represents an invaluable case study to investigate the response of components of the Earth system to global warming. However, the scarcity of absolute age constraints in most archives leads to extensive use of various stratigraphic alignments to different reference chronologies. This feature sets limitations to the accuracy of the stratigraphic assignment of the climatic sequence of events across the globe during the LIG. Here, we review the strengths and limitations of the methods that are commonly used to date or develop chronologies in various climatic archives for the time span (∼140-100 ka) encompassing the penultimate deglaciation, the LIG and the glacial inception. Climatic hypotheses underlying record alignment strategies and the interpretation of tracers are explicitly described. Quantitative estimates of the associated absolute and relative age uncertainties are provided. Recommendations are subsequently formulated on how best to define absolute and relative chronologies. Future climato-stratigraphic alignments should provide (1) a clear statement of climate hypotheses involved, (2) a detailed understanding of environmental parameters controlling selected tracers and (3) a careful evaluation of the synchronicity of aligned paleoclimatic records. We underscore the need to (1) systematically report quantitative estimates of relative and absolute age uncertainties, (2) assess the coherence of chronologies when comparing different records, and (3) integrate these uncertainties in paleoclimatic interpretations and comparisons with climate simulations. Finally, we provide a sequence of major climatic events with associated age uncertainties for the period 140-105 ka, which should serve as a new benchmark to disentangle mechanisms of the Earth system's response to orbital forcing and evaluate transient climate simulations.

Effects of Drake Passage on a strongly eddying global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2015-04-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. Drake Passage (DP) is an intensively studied gateway because it plays a central role in closing the transport pathways of heat and chemicals in the ocean. The climate response to a closed DP has been explored with a variety of general circulation models, however, all of these models employ low model-grid resolutions such that the effects of subgrid-scale fluctuations ('eddies') are parameterized. We present results of the first high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed DP in which the eddy field is largely resolved. The simulation extends over more than 200 years such that the strong transient adjustment process is passed and a near-equilibrium ocean state is reached. The effects of DP are diagnosed by comparing with both an open DP high-resolution control simulation (of same length) and corresponding low-resolution simulations. By focussing on the heat/tracer transports we demonstrate that the results are twofold: Considering spatially integrated transports the overall response to a closed DP is well captured by low-resolution simulations. However, looking at the actual spatial distributions drastic differences appear between far-scattered high-resolution and laminar-uniform low-resolution fields. We conclude that sparse and highly localized tracer proxy observations have to be interpreted carefully with the help of high-resolution model simulations.

Stratospheric ozone loss and Antarctic climate change: an update from a stratosphere resolving Chemistry Climate Model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalichin, Janna; Kubin, Anne; Grieger, Jens; Langematz, Ulrike; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Joeckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

The evolution of Antarctic climate during the past four decades was characterized by enhanced tropospheric westerlies and a negative trend in near-surface temperature over the Antarctic plateau during the austral summer, while the Antarctic Peninsula showed a warming (Thompson and Solomon, 2002). Model simulations suggested that these trends are most certainly attributable to the Antarctic ozone depletion since the early 1980s (Gillett and Thompson, 2003). However, the more recent publication of Steig et al. (2009) finds a warming of the whole Antarctic continent since 1957 in data from satellites and automatic weather stations. Motivated by this discussion we have analysed changes in stratospheric ozone, temperature and dynamics, and the corresponding signal in Antarctic climate in a transient simulation of the period 1960 to 2000, performed with the stratosphere-troposphere Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC. The model has been integrated following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures/sea ice. The model reproduces the main observed features of the Antarctic stratosphere since the 1960s, e.g. the establishment of the ozone hole in the 1980s, a negative stratospheric temperature trend, and a longer lived and deeper polar vortex and its more intense breakdown. The enhancement of the tropospheric jet is well reproduced as well. With respect to the near surface trends the model seems to support the recently published results of a weak positive temperature trend all over Antarctica. Analyses of heat and humidity fluxes will be used to support the interpretation of the model results.

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackburn, Michael; Williamson, David L.; Nakajima, Kensuke; Ohfuchi, Wataru; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki O.; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Ishiwatari, Masaki; Mcgregor, John L.; Borth, Hartmut;

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2012-07-01

The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP) is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP) climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period. In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this time period. Further agreement between data and model results was found for the uplands of North America and Southern Europe, where grassland along with warm and dry climates were simulated. However, our model simulated vegetation changes in South and North America that were much smaller than reconstructed. Along the west and east coast of North America we simulated drier vegetation than the pollen records suggest.

Evaluating Regional Scale Deforestation in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, P.; Montenegro, A.; Beltrami, H.; Eby, M.

2011-12-01

Forests play a key role in influencing the Earths climate and at the same time are affected by changing climates. At this point it is estimated that 15-30% of Earths natural forests have already been converted to pasture or cropland. With such large amounts of forest being converted to cropland and grassland, it is important to determine the climatic effects of these actions. To date, most modelling efforts towards understanding the climatic effects of deforestation have simulated global deforestation or have been based on experiments where trees were removed from large areas, i.e. the entire Amazon or all forests above 50 N. Here we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate model which contains a fully coupled carbon cycle, to evaluate the response to deforestation of 10%, 25%, 50% and 100% of the forested areas in three latitude bands: high (above 50°N), mid (above ± 30°) and low (between ± 30°). All simulations were transient simulations, allowing for changes to atmospheric forcings following the A2 emissions scenario. High latitude deforestation lead to cooling (-.05 °C to -0.45 °C) and increase in soil carbon (0.5 to 3 x 1014 kg) for all fractions of deforestation. Due in part to the increase in soil carbon, there was a decrease in atmospheric CO2 in the 50% (-20 ppm) and 100% (-60 ppm) high-latitude deforestation simulations. Low-latitude deforestation initially produced warming in all scenarios (0.1 to 0.25 °C), although all were colder (-0.05 to -0.1 °C) than the control by the end of the simulation. Atmospheric CO2 increased in all simulations (40 to 80 ppm), as well as soil carbon (2 to 16 x 1013 kg). Mid-latitude deforestation also lead to initial warming (0.01 to 0.1 °C) followed by cooling (-0.01 to -0.1 °C). Mid latitude deforestation also produced an increase in soil carbon (2 to 10 x 1013 kg), and atmospheric CO2 (0 to 25ppm). In all three latitude bands forest dieback was observed. Results range from 7% to 37% for high latitudes, 21% to 40% for mid latitudes and 36% to 70% in low latitudes.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.

2012-12-01

Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense over the Arctic Ocean. The historical tendency in Arctic SLP varies considerably among the GCMs, but the intermodel average trend exhibits a lowering of mean-annual pressure over the Arctic during the past 150 years and an increase in extreme cyclones in the vicinity of the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. However, only weak trends in extreme cyclones are simulated through 2005 over the Arctic Ocean, where simulations of future climate change produce the largest SLP falls.

Consistency and Main Differences Between European Regional Climate Downscaling Intercomparison Results; From PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES to CORDEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, J. H.; Larsen, M. A. D.; Christensen, O. B.; Drews, M.

2017-12-01

For more than 20 years, coordinated efforts to apply regional climate models to downscale GCM simulations for Europe have been pursued by an ever increasing group of scientists. This endeavor showed its first results during EU framework supported projects such as RACCS and MERCURE. Here, the foundation for today's advanced worldwide CORDEX approach was laid out by a core of six research teams, who conducted some of the first coordinated RCM simulations with the aim to assess regional climate change for Europe. However, it was realized at this stage that model bias in GCMs as well as RCMs made this task very challenging. As an immediate outcome, the idea was conceived to make an even more coordinated effort by constructing a well-defined and structured set of common simulations; this lead to the PRUDENCE project (2001-2004). Additional coordinated efforts involving ever increasing numbers of GCMs and RCMs followed in ENSEMBLES (2004-2009) and the ongoing Euro-CORDEX (officially commenced 2011) efforts. Along with the overall coordination, simulations have increased their standard resolution from 50km (PRUDENCE) to about 12km (Euro-CORDEX) and from time slice simulations (PRUDENCE) to transient experiments (ENSEMBLES and CORDEX); from one driving model and emission scenario (PRUDENCE) to several (Euro-CORDEX). So far, this wealth of simulations have been used to assess the potential impacts of future climate change in Europe providing a baseline change as defined by a multi-model mean change with associated uncertainties calculated from model spread in the ensemble. But how has the overall picture of state-of-the-art regional climate change projections changed over this period of almost two decades? Here we compare across scenarios, model resolutions and model vintage the results from PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and Euro-CORDEX. By appropriate scaling we identify robust findings about the projected future of European climate expressed by temperature and precipitation changes that confirm the basic findings of PRUDENCE. For parameters such as snow cover and soil moisture availability we also identify major new results, which illustrate that model improvements and higher resolution offer new, physically grounded, robust information that could not have been identified twenty years ago with the approach taken at that time

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Vegetation: Implications for Biodiversity and Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, K.; Schrag, D. P.

2017-12-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on biodiversity. Two commonly used climate classification systems show shifts in vegetation under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, though we acknowledge the associated uncertainties with these systems. We also show that rates of warming and the climate velocity are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles are observed in the results, and have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. Vegetation water cycling is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.

NAME Modeling and Climate Process Team

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Williams, L. N.; Gutzler, D. S.

2007-05-01

NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team (CPT) has been established to address the need of linking climate process research to model development and testing activities for warm season climate prediction. The project builds on two existing NAME-related modeling efforts. One major component of this project is the organization and implementation of a second phase of NAMAP, based on the 2004 season. NAMAP2 will re-examine the metrics proposed by NAMAP, extend the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, exploit the extensive observational database provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation targets of special interest, and expand participation. Vertical column analysis will bring local NAME observations and model outputs together in a context where key physical processes in the models can be evaluated and improved. The second component builds on the current NAME-related modeling effort focused on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in several global models, including those implemented at NCEP, NASA and GFDL. Our activities will focus on the ability of the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) to simulate the diurnal and seasonal evolution of warm season precipitation during the NAME 2004 EOP, and on changes to the treatment of deep convection in the complicated terrain of the NAMS domain that are necessary to improve the simulations, and ultimately predictions of warm season precipitation These activities will be strongly tied to NAMAP2 to ensure technology transfer from research to operations. Results based on experiments conducted with the NCEP CFS GCM will be reported at the conference with emphasis on the impact of horizontal resolution in predicting warm season precipitation over North America.

Climate change impact on groundwater levels in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, D. D.; Wendland, E.

2013-12-01

The unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries might cause water availability restrictions in the future. Such issue is likely to worsen due to predicted climate changes for the incoming decades. As numerous studies suggest, aquifers recharge rates will be affected as a result of climate change. The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is one of the most important transboundary aquifer in the world, providing drinkable water for millions of people in four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). Considering the GAS relevance and how its recharge rates might be altered by climatic conditions anomalies, the objective of this work is to assess possible climate changes impacts on groundwater levels in this aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models' (GCM) outputs were used as inputs in a transient flux groundwater model created using the software SPA (Simulation of Process in Aquifers), enabling groundwater table fluctuation to be evaluated under distinct climatic scenarios. Six monitoring wells, located in a representative basin (Ribeirão da Onça basin) inside a GAS outcrop zone (ROB), provided water table measurements between 2004 and 2011 to calibrate the groundwater model. Using observed climatic data, a water budget method was applied to estimate recharge in different types of land uses. Statistically downscaled future climate scenarios were used as inputs for that same recharge model, which provided data for running SPA under those scenarios. The results show that most of the GCMs used here predict temperature arises over 275,15 K and major monthly rainfall mean changes to take place in the dry season. During wet seasons, those means might experience around 50% decrease. The transient model results indicate that water table variations, derived from around 70% of the climate scenarios, would vary below those measured between 2004 and 2011. Among the thirteen GCMs considered in this work, only four of them predicted more extreme climate scenarios. In some regions of the study area and under these extreme conditions, groundwater surface would decline more than 10 m. Although more optimistic scenarios resulted in an increase of groundwater levels in more than half of ROB, these would cause up to 5 m water table decline. The results reinforce the need for a permanent hydrogeological monitoring, mainly in the GAS recharge areas, along with the development of other climate change impacts assessment works using different downscaling and recharge estimates methods.

Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John

2017-09-01

We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206-1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th-21st century trends.

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muljadi, Eduard

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

2014-09-01

Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.

Can Earth System Model Provide Reasonable Natural Runoff Estimates to Support Water Management Studies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Shi, X.; Kumar, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

With the concern of changing hydrologic regime, there is a crucial need to better understand how water availability may change and influence water management decisions in the projected future climate conditions. Despite that surface hydrology has long been simulated by land model within the Earth System modeling (ESM) framework, given the coarser horizontal resolution and lack of engineering-level calibration, raw runoff from ESM is generally discarded by water resource managers when conducting hydro-climate impact assessments. To identify a likely path to improve the credibility of ESM-simulated natural runoff, we conducted regional model simulation using the land component (ALM) of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) version 1 focusing on the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two very different forcing data sets, including (1) the conventional 0.5° CRUNCEP (v5, 1901-2013) and (2) the 1-km Daymet (v3, 1980-2013) aggregated to 0.5°, were used to conduct 20th century transient simulation with satellite phenology. Additional meteorologic and hydrologic observations, including PRISM precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff, were used for model evaluation. For various CONUS hydrologic regions (such as Pacific Northwest), we found that Daymet can significantly improve the reasonableness of simulated ALM runoff even without intensive calibration. The large dry bias of CRUNCEP precipitation (evaluated by PRISM) in multiple CONUS hydrologic regions is believed to be the main reason causing runoff underestimation. The results suggest that when driving with skillful precipitation estimates, ESM has the ability to produce reasonable natural runoff estimates to support further water management studies. Nevertheless, model calibration will be required for regions (such as Upper Colorado) where ill performance is showed for multiple different forcings.

Impacts of different aerosol climatologies on the European climate during the last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultze, Markus; Rockel, Burkhardt

2015-04-01

As summarized in the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, the effects of aerosols on the Earth's energy budget are one of the largest uncertainties in a changing climate. Despite a better understanding of aerosol processes since the previous report, it remains unclear to which degree of complexity these processes need to be represented within the climate models to consider their effects in a sufficient manner. Within the nonhydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the aerosol climatology of Tanre from 1984 is widely used to simulate the direct effect of aerosols on radiative processes. Apart from a very low spatial resolution and a missing temporal variability, this climatology is dominated by high values of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over Northern Africa, caused by an overestimation of Saharan dust. To investigate the impacts of different aerosol distributions on the European climate, the Tanre aerosol climatology is replaced by the more realistic climatologies of Tegen from 1997 and AEROCOM from 2006 with constant annual cycles of AOD. In addition a control simulation without any aerosol feedbacks was performed. The simulations cover a period of 30 years from 1980 to 2010. In parts of the regions surveyed, we found a near surface cooling, which is strongly linked to AOD, and a broad mid-troposphere warming for all simulations in comparison to the control simulation. A decrease in convective precipitation is mainly caused by stabilization of stratification and by less evapotranspiration resulting from surface cooling. The horizontal differing mid-troposphere warming induces a drop in surface pressure and therefore leads to changes in circulation patterns which are still under investigation. The largest impacts of direct and semi direct aerosol effects was found in summer season. As next step, pre-calculated transient aerosol data will be used to compile an up-to-date aerosol climatology including temporal changes. One main focus of the study will be to investigate whether a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol load in Europe during the last decades enhances the GHG induced near surface warming.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

A laboratory experiment simulating the dynamics of topographic relief: methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crave, A.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.; Bonnet, S.; Laguionie, P.

2002-12-01

Theoretical analysis and numerical models of landscape evolution have advanced several scenarios for the long-term evolution of terrestrial topography. These scenarios require quantitative evaluation. Analyses of topography, sediment fluxes, and the physical mechanisms of erosion and sediment transport can provide some constraints on the range of plausible models. But in natural systems the boundary conditions (tectonic uplift, climate, base level) are often not well constrained and the spatial heterogeneity of substrate, climate, vegetation, and prevalent processes commonly confounds attempts at extrapolation of observations to longer timescales. In the laboratory, boundary conditions are known and heterogeneity and complexity can be controlled. An experimental approach can thus provide valuable constraints on the dynamics of geomorphic systems, provided that (1) the elementary processes are well calibrated and (2) the topography and sediment fluxes are sufficiently well documented. We have built an experimental setup of decimeter scale that is designed to develop a complete drainage network by the growth and propagation of erosion instabilities in response to tectonic and climatic perturbations. Uplift and precipitation rates can be changed over an order of magnitude. Telemetric lasers and 3D stereo-photography allow the precise quantification of the topographic evolution of the experimental surface. In order to calibrate the principal processes of erosion and transport we have used three approaches: (1) theoretical derivation of erosion laws deduced from the geometrical properties of experimental surfaces at steady-state under different rates of tectonic uplift; (2) comparison of the experimental transient dynamics with a numerical simulation model to test the validity of the predicted erosion laws; and (3) detailed analysis of particle detachment and transport in a millimeter sheet flow on a two-meter long flume under precisely controlled water discharge, slope and flow width. The analogy with real geomorphic systems is limited by the imperfect downscaling in both time and space of the experiments. However, these simple experiments have allowed us to probe (1) the importance of a threshold for particle mobilization to the relationship between steady-state elevation and uplift rate, (2) the role of initial drainage network organization in the transient dynamics of tectonically perturbed systems and (3) the sediment flux dynamics of climatically perturbed systems.

Keno-21: Fundamental Issues in the Design of Geophysical Simulation Experiments and Resource Allocation in Climate Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2001-05-01

Many sources of uncertainty come into play when modelling geophysical systems by simulation. These include uncertainty in the initial condition, uncertainty in model parameter values (and the parameterisations themselves) and error in the model class from which the model(s) was selected. In recent decades, climate simulations have focused resources on reducing the last of these by including more and more details into the model. One can question when this ``kitchen sink'' approach should be complimented with realistic estimates of the impact from other uncertainties noted above. Indeed while the impact of model error can never be fully quantified, as all simulation experiments are interpreted a the rosy scenario which assumes a priori that nothing crucial is missing, the impact of other uncertainties can be quantified at only the cost of computational power; as illustrated, for example, in ensemble climate modelling experiments like Casino-21. This talk illustrates the interplay uncertainties in the context of a trivial nonlinear system and an ensemble of models. The simple systems considered in this small scale experiment, Keno-21, are meant to illustrate issues of experimental design; they are not intended to provide true climate simulations. The use of simulation models with huge numbers of parameters given limited data is usually justified by an appeal to the Laws of Physics: the number of free degrees-of-freedom are many fewer than the number of variables; both variables, parameterisations, and parameter values are constrained by ``the physics" and the resulting simulation yields a realistic reproduction of the entire planet's climate system to within reasonable bounds. But what bounds? exactly? In a single model run under transient forcing scenario, there are good statistical grounds for considering only large space and time averages; most of these reasons vanish if an ensemble of runs are made. Ensemble runs can quantify the (in)ability of a model to provide insight on regional changes: if a model cannot capture regional variations in the data on which the model was constructed (that is, in-sample) claims that out-of-sample predictions of those same regional averages should be used in policy making are vacuous. While motivated by climate modelling and illustrated on a trivial nonlinear system, these issues have implications across the range of geophysical modelling. These include implications for appropriate resource allocation, on the making of science policy, and on the public understanding of science and the role of uncertainty in decision making.

Parameterization of eddy sensible heat transports in a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genthon, Christophe; Le Treut, Herve; Sadourny, Robert; Jouzel, Jean

1990-01-01

A Charney-Branscome based parameterization has been tested as a way of representing the eddy sensible heat transports missing in a zonally averaged dynamic model (ZADM) of the atmosphere. The ZADM used is a zonally averaged version of a general circulation model (GCM). The parameterized transports in the ZADM are gaged against the corresponding fluxes explicitly simulated in the GCM, using the same zonally averaged boundary conditions in both models. The Charney-Branscome approach neglects stationary eddies and transient barotropic disturbances and relies on a set of simplifying assumptions, including the linear appoximation, to describe growing transient baroclinic eddies. Nevertheless, fairly satisfactory results are obtained when the parameterization is performed interactively with the model. Compared with noninteractive tests, a very efficient restoring feedback effect between the modeled zonal-mean climate and the parameterized meridional eddy transport is identified.

The $10 trillion value of better information about the transient climate response.

PubMed

Hope, Chris

2015-11-13

How much is better information about climate change worth? Here, I use PAGE09, a probabilistic integrated assessment model, to find the optimal paths of CO(2) emissions over time and to calculate the value of better information about one aspect of climate change, the transient climate response (TCR). Approximately halving the uncertainty range for TCR has a net present value of about $10.3 trillion (year 2005 US$) if accomplished in time for emissions to be adjusted in 2020, falling to $9.7 trillion if accomplished by 2030. Probabilistic integrated assessment modelling is the only method we have for making estimates like these for the value of better information about the science and impacts of climate change. © 2015 The Author(s).

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gozalez-Rouco, J. F.

2013-01-01

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

A warmer and wetter solution for early Mars and the challenges with transient warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.

2017-11-01

The climate of early Mars has been hotly debated for decades. Although most investigators believe that the geology indicates the presence of surface water, disagreement has persisted regarding how warm and wet the surface must have been and how long such conditions may have existed. Although the geologic evidence is most easily explained by a persistently warm climate, the perceived difficulty that climate models have in generating warm surface conditions has seeded various models that assume a cold and glaciated early Mars punctuated by transient warming episodes. However, I use a single-column radiative convective climate model to show that it is relatively more straightforward to satisfy warm and relatively non-glaciated early Mars conditions, requiring only ∼1% H2 and 3 bar CO2 or ∼20% H2 and 0.55 bar CO2. In contrast, the reflectivity of surface ice greatly increases the difficulty to transiently warm an initially frozen surface. Surface pressure thresholds required for warm conditions increase ∼10 - 60% for transient warming models, depending on ice cover fraction. No warm solution is possible for ice cover fractions exceeding 40%, 70%, and 85% for mixed snow/ice and 25%, 35%, and 49% for fresher snow/ice at H2 concentrations of 3%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. If high temperatures (298-323 K) were required to produce the observed surface clay amounts on a transiently warm early Mars (Bishop et al), I show that such temperatures would have required surface pressures that exceed available paleopressure constraints for nearly all H2 concentrations considered (1-20%). I then argue that a warm and semi-arid climate remains the simplest and most logical solution to Mars paleoclimate.

Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

PubMed

Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

2012-07-10

Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgenio, Anthony

1993-01-01

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Terrestrial N Cycling And C Storage: Some Insights From A Process-based Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.

2008-12-01

We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation, and soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. O-CN is run for three free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge, Aspen), and reproduces observed magnitudes of changes in net primary productivity, foliage area and foliage N content. Several alternative hypotheses concerning the control of N on vegetation growth and decomposition, including effects of diluting foliage N concentrations, down-regulation of photosynthesis and respiration, acclimation of C allocation patterns and biological N fixation, are tested with respect to their effect on long- term C sequestration estimate. Differences in initial N availability, small transient changes in N inputs and the assumed plasticity of C:N stoichiometry can lead to substantial differences in the simulated long-term changes in productivity and C sequestration. We discuss the capacity of observations obtained at FACE sites to evaluate these alternative hypotheses, and investigate implications of a transient versus instantaneous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide for the magnitude of the simulated limiting effect of N on C cycling. Finally, we re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric CO2, N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century.

The Effect of Dust on the Martian Polar Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, A. D.; Waugh, D. W.

2016-01-01

The influence of atmospheric dust on the dynamics and stability of the martian polar vortices is examined, through analysis of Mars Climate Sounder observations and MarsWRF general circulation model simulations. We show that regional and global dust storms produce transient vortex warming events that partially or fully disrupt the northern winter polar vortex for brief periods. Increased atmospheric dust heating alters the Hadley circulation and shifts the downwelling branch of the circulation poleward, leading to a disruption of the polar vortex for a period of days to weeks. Through our simulations, we find this effect is dependent on the atmospheric heating rate, which can be changed by increasing the amount of dust in the atmosphere or by altering the dust optical properties (e.g., single scattering albedo). Despite this, our simulations show that some level of atmospheric dust is necessary to produce a distinct northern hemisphere winter polar vortex.

The effect of dust on the martian polar vortices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, A. D.; Waugh, D. W.

2016-11-01

The influence of atmospheric dust on the dynamics and stability of the martian polar vortices is examined, through analysis of Mars Climate Sounder observations and MarsWRF general circulation model simulations. We show that regional and global dust storms produce ;transient vortex warming; events that partially or fully disrupt the northern winter polar vortex for brief periods. Increased atmospheric dust heating alters the Hadley circulation and shifts the downwelling branch of the circulation poleward, leading to a disruption of the polar vortex for a period of days to weeks. Through our simulations, we find this effect is dependent on the atmospheric heating rate, which can be changed by increasing the amount of dust in the atmosphere or by altering the dust optical properties (e.g., single scattering albedo). Despite this, our simulations show that some level of atmospheric dust is necessary to produce a distinct northern hemisphere winter polar vortex.

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandru, Adelina

2018-03-01

Changes in the essential climate extremes indices and surface variables for the end of the twenty-first century are assessed in this study based on two transient climate change simulations, with and without land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), but identical atmospheric forcing. The two simulations are performed with the 5th generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the Canadian Earth System Model for the (2006-2100)-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. For the simulation with LULCC, land-cover data sets are taken from the global change assessment model (GCAM) representing the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2006-2100. LULCC in RCP4.5 scenario suggest significant reduction in cultivated land (e.g. Canadian Prairies and Mississippi basin) due to afforestation. CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming by the end of the twenty-first century, especially over the northern regions in winter. CRCM5 projects more warm spell-days per year over most areas of the continent, and implicitly more summer days and tropical nights at the expense of cold-spell, frost and ice days whose number is projected to decrease by up to 40% by the end of the twenty-first century with respect to the baseline period 1971-2000. Most land areas north of 45°N, in all seasons, as well as the southeastern United States in summer, exhibit increases in mean precipitation under the RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, central parts of the continent in summer and much of Mexico in all seasons show reduced precipitation. In addition, large areas of North America exhibit changes of 10 to 40% (depending on the season and geographical location) in the number of heavy precipitation days. Results also suggest that the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on climate, assessed through differences between the two simulations, lead to warmer regional climates, especially in winter. The investigation of processes leading to this response shows high sensitivity of the results to changes in albedo as a response to LULCC. Overall, at the seasonal scale, results show that intense afforestation may contribute to an additional 25% of projected changes.

Transient Analysis Generator /TAG/ simulates behavior of large class of electrical networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, W. J.

1967-01-01

Transient Analysis Generator program simulates both transient and dc steady-state behavior of a large class of electrical networks. It generates a special analysis program for each circuit described in an easily understood and manipulated programming language. A generator or preprocessor and a simulation system make up the TAG system.

The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change.

Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Bloecker, Christine E.

2018-02-01

It is known that internal climate variability (ICV) can influence trends seen in observations and individual model simulations over a period of decades. This makes it difficult to quantify the forced response to external forcing. Here we analyze two large ensembles of simulations from 1950 to 2100 by two fully-coupled climate models, namely the CESM1 and CanESM2, to quantify ICV's influences on estimated trends in annual surface air temperature (Tas) and precipitation (P) over different time periods. Results show that the observed trends since 1979 in global-mean Tas and P are within the spread of the CESM1-simulated trends while the CanESM2 overestimates the historical changes, likely due to its deficiencies in simulating historical non-CO2 forcing. Both models show considerable spreads in the Tas and P trends among the individual simulations, and the spreads decrease rapidly as the record length increases to about 40 (50) years for global-mean Tas (P). Because of ICV, local and regional P trends may remain statistically insignificant and differ greatly among individual model simulations over most of the globe until the later part of the twenty-first century even under a high emissions scenario, while local Tas trends since 1979 are already statistically significant over many low-latitude regions and are projected to become significant over most of the globe by the 2030s. The largest influences of ICV come from the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and polar sea ice. In contrast to the realization-dependent ICV, the forced Tas response to external forcing has a temporal evolution that is similar over most of the globe (except its amplitude). For annual precipitation, however, the temporal evolution of the forced response is similar (opposite) to that of Tas over many mid-high latitude areas and the ITCZ (subtropical regions), but close to zero over the transition zones between the regions with positive and negative trends. The ICV in the transient climate change simulations is slightly larger than that in the control run for P (and other related variables such as water vapor), but similar for Tas. Thus, the ICV for P from a control run may need to be scaled up in detection and attribution analyses.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models -- such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake -- may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect.

Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Booth, Ben B B; Good, Peter

2017-12-01

The future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as "dry-season resilience" to predict the long-term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid-range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

The dynamics of sediment size and transient erosional signals in heterogeneous lithologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, N. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Crosby, B. T.; Wehrs, K.; Willenbring, J. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment supply and transport dynamics convey, transform, and destroy climatic and tectonic signals in channels and depositional landforms. The South Fork Eel River (SFER) in the northern California Coast Ranges, USA exhibits characteristics suggestive of transient landscape adjustment: strath terraces, knickpoints, and headwater terrain eroding more slowly than downstream areas. A tectonically-induced uplift wave is commonly invoked as the driver of transience in this region. The wave is attributed to the northward migration of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). Nested basin-mean erosion rates calculated from 10Be detrital quartz sand increase down the mainstem of the SFER, roughly coinciding with the direction of MTJ migration. This erosion trend is attributed to the proportion of adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions upstream of the locations where the nested 10Be samples were collected. Adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions are separated by a broad knickzone that contains 28% of relief along the mainstem. Knickzone propagation and considerable stream incision is suggested by projection of the upper SFER above the knickzone through the highest flight of strath terraces. Field observations and outcomes of numerical simulations using the Landlab modeling framework are incompatible with uplift modeled as a wave. Alternative uplift and variable sediment flux scenarios more reliably predict the pattern of terraces, knickpoints, and accelerated erosion. In the natural landscape, landforms and erosion rates follow the patterns expected for transient erosion along the mainstem, although a local base level lowering signal is not resolvable in many tributaries. Topographic relief, presence of knickpoints, and rock properties differ in the SFER tributaries. The tributaries draining mélange are over-steepened by boulders detached from hillslopes by earthflows. Here, we propose a framework in which rock properties and sediment size are a key control upon preservation of a base level change signal in low order streams. This result implies that transient erosion signals inferred using topography can be transformed or destroyed in certain lithologies, complicating efforts to infer climatic and tectonic history from topography.

Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land use data, these results are compared to the equivalent investigations performed in CMIP5 with the CLM4/CESM1 model. We find the role of land use and land cover change in a changing climate is strongly dependent on both of these.

Coincidental match of numerical simulation and physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre, B.; Gudmundsson, J. S.

2010-08-01

Consequences of rapid pressure transients in pipelines range from increased fatigue to leakages and to complete ruptures of pipeline. Therefore, accurate predictions of rapid pressure transients in pipelines using numerical simulations are critical. State of the art modelling of pressure transient in general, and water hammer in particular include unsteady friction in addition to the steady frictional pressure drop, and numerical simulations rely on the method of characteristics. Comparison of rapid pressure transient calculations by the method of characteristics and a selected high resolution finite volume method highlights issues related to modelling of pressure waves and illustrates that matches between numerical simulations and physics are purely coincidental.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

PubMed

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-26

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Large liquid rocket engine transient performance simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, J. R.; Southwick, R. D.

1991-01-01

A simulation system, ROCETS, was designed and developed to allow cost-effective computer predictions of liquid rocket engine transient performance. The system allows a user to generate a simulation of any rocket engine configuration using component modules stored in a library through high-level input commands. The system library currently contains 24 component modules, 57 sub-modules and maps, and 33 system routines and utilities. FORTRAN models from other sources can be operated in the system upon inclusion of interface information on comment cards. Operation of the simulation is simplified for the user by run, execution, and output processors. The simulation system makes available steady-state trim balance, transient operation, and linear partial generation. The system utilizes a modern equation solver for efficient operation of the simulations. Transient integration methods include integral and differential forms for the trapezoidal, first order Gear, and second order Gear corrector equations. A detailed technology test bed engine (TTBE) model was generated to be used as the acceptance test of the simulation system. The general level of model detail was that reflected in the Space Shuttle Main Engine DTM. The model successfully obtained steady-state balance in main stage operation and simulated throttle transients, including engine starts and shutdown. A NASA FORTRAN control model was obtained, ROCETS interface installed in comment cards, and operated with the TTBE model in closed-loop transient mode.

Testing the Reconstruction Potential for North Pacific Circulation Anomalies inside the TraCE-21ka Paleoclimate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elison Timm, O.; Flamholtz, W. M.; Li, S.; Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study was sparked by the idea that paleoclimate temperature and precipitation proxies provide sufficient information to make inferences about extratropical atmospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific during the Holocene. Typical targets for the circulation reconstruction problem include the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and the storm tracks. The reconstruction problem was investigated under idealized conditions using model simulation results from the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/TraCE/), which covers the Last Glacial Maximum to present. It is demonstrated that modes of variability found on interannual to multidecadal timescales during the preindustrial era provide inadequate pattern for reconstructing long-term mean changes during the past 22,000 years. Our circulation reconstruction target was the geopotential height field at 500hPa (Z500) over the North Pacific Ocean during winter. We applied a field reconstruction method using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). The MCA was applied to Z500 and surface temperatures as predictor information. The MCA was given model data containing interannual to multidecadal variability from the pre-industrial climate (1000BP-900BP). We worked with ten leading MCA modes in the reconstruction, which can reproduce about 90% of the covariability during the preindustrial period. Within the model simulation, we validated the field reconstructions against the model's circulation states over the last 22,000 years. Spatial skill scores show that the reconstruction skill drops significantly prior to the late Holocene. Reasons for the loss of reconstruction skill are due to the fact that externally forced climate changes do not resemble the internal modes of variability and that covariance between circulation and temperatures on interannual-multidecadal time scales changes with the background climate state. However, the reconstruction can be improved by including data from the early Holocene and the LGM era in the MCA. Based on these results, we advocate that paleoclimate model simulation results should be used define a set of first-guess pattern for the reconstruction of circulation anomalies from sparse and noisy proxy data.

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

2017-04-01

There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional disaster risk and the projection of typhoon is still highly uncertain and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation. Since Taiwan is a small island, different typhoon tracks induce different level of disaster impacts in watersheds. Therefore, more samples dynamic downscaled typhoon events are needed for analysis to improve and increase reliability in future. Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, developing a new statistical downscaling approach and new method to release daily climate change data to hourly data could be a short-term solution.

Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.

2017-12-01

Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are consistently in good agreement with values of ICS inferred from global energy budget constraints. This suggests that the current generation of coupled climate models are not overly sensitive. However, since global energy budget observations do not constrain ECS, it is less certain whether model ECS values are realistic.

Rapid shifts in South American montane climates driven by pCO2 and ice volume changes over the last two glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groot, M. H. M.; Bogotá, R. G.; Lourens, L. J.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Vriend, M.; Berrio, J. C.; Tuenter, E.; van der Plicht, J.; van Geel, B.; Ziegler, M.; Weber, S. L.; Betancourt, A.; Contreras, L.; Gaviria, S.; Giraldo, C.; González, N.; Jansen, J. H. F.; Konert, M.; Ortega, D.; Rangel, O.; Sarmiento, G.; Vandenberghe, J.; van der Hammen, T.; van der Linden, M.; Westerhoff, W.

2010-10-01

Tropical montane biome migration patterns in the northern Andes are found to be coupled to glacial-induced mean annual temperature (MAT) changes; however, the accuracy and resolution of current records are insufficient to fully explore their magnitude and rates of change. Here we present a ~60-year resolution pollen record over the past 284 000 years from Lake Fúquene (5° N) in Colombia. This record shows rapid and extreme MAT changes at 2540 m elevation of up to 10 ± 2 °C within a few hundred of years that concur with the ~100 and 41-kyr (obliquity) paced glacial cycles and North Atlantic abrupt climatic events as documented in ice cores and marine sediments. Using transient climate modelling experiments we demonstrate that insolation-controlled ice volume and greenhouse gasses are the major forcing agents causing the orbital MAT changes, but that the model simulations significantly underestimate changes in lapse rates and local hydrology and vegetation feedbacks within the studied region due to its low spatial resolution.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A; Mix, Alan C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard

2012-04-04

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

PubMed Central

Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Erbrecht, Tim; Heyder, Ursula; Cramer, Wolfgang

2006-01-01

Background Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. Results The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century. Conclusion Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100. PMID:16930462

Reconstructing the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets with Ice Sheet Models; data-model comparison and focus on the Storfjorden (Svalbard) ice stream dynamics history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrini, Michele; Kirchner, Nina; Colleoni, Florence; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G.; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R.

2017-04-01

The challenge of reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets past growth and decay represent a critical task to better understand mechanisms of present and future global climate change. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the subsequent deglaciation until Pre-Industrial time (PI) represent an excellent testing ground for numerical Ice Sheet Models (ISMs), due to the abundant data available that can be used in an ISM as boundary conditions, forcings or constraints to test the ISMs results. In our study, we simulate with ISMs the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets, with a focus on the marine-based Svalbard-Barents Sea-Kara Sea Ice Sheet. In particular, we aim to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history by comparing the model results with the marine geological data (MSGLs, GZWs, sediment cores analysis) available from the area, e.g., Pedrosa et al. 2011, Rebesco et al. 2011, 2013, Lucchi et al. 2013. Two hybrid SIA/SSA ISMs are employed, GRISLI, Ritz et al. 2001, and PSU, Pollard&DeConto 2012. These models differ mainly in the complexity with which grounding line migration is treated. Climate forcing is interpolated by means of climate indexes between LGM and PI climate. Regional climate indexes are constructed based on the non-accelerated deglaciation transient experiment carried out with CCSM3, Liu et al. 2009. Indexes representative of the climate evolution over Siberia, Svalbard and Scandinavia are employed. The impact of such refined representation as opposed to the common use of the NGRIP δ18O index for transient experiments is analysed. In this study, the ice-ocean interaction is crucial to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history. To investigate the sensitivity of the ice shelf/stream retreat to ocean temperature, we allow for a space-time variation of basal melting under the ice shelves by testing two-equations implementations based on Martin et al. 2011 forced with simulated ocean temperature and salinity from the TraCE-21ka coupled climate simulation. In this presentation, we will show work in progress, address open issues, and sketch future work. In particular, we invite the community to suggest possibilities for model-data comparison and integration. Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., He, F., Brady, E.C., Tomas, R., Clark, P.U., Carlson, A.E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E. and Erickson, D., 2009. Transient simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bólling-Alleród warming. Science, 325(5938), pp.310-314. Lucchi, R.G., Camerlenghi, A., Rebesco, M., Colmenero-Hidalgo, E., Sierro, F.J., Sagnotti, L., Urgeles, R., Melis, R., Morigi, C., Bárcena, M.A. and Giorgetti, G., 2013. Postglacial sedimentary processes on the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough mouth fans: Significance of extreme glacimarine sedimentation. Global and planetary change, 111, pp.309-326. Martin, M.A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C. and Levermann, A., 2011. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK)-Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Cryosphere, 5(3), pp.727-740. Pedrosa, M.T., Camerlenghi, A., De Mol, B., Urgeles, R., Rebesco, M. and Lucchi, R.G., 2011. Seabed morphology and shallow sedimentary structure of the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough-mouth fans (north west Barents Sea). Marine Geology, 286(1), pp.65-81. Pollard, D. and DeConto, R.M., 2012. Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(5), pp.1273-1295. Rebesco, M., Liu, Y., Camerlenghi, A., Winsborrow, M., Laberg, J.S., Caburlotto, A., Diviacco, P., Accettella, D., Sauli, C., Wardell, N. and Tomini, I., 2011. Deglaciation of the western margin of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet-a swath bathymetric and sub-bottom seismic study from the Kveithola Trough. Marine Geology, 279(1), pp.141-147. Rebesco, M., Laberg, J., Pedrosa, M., Camerlenghi, A., Lucchi, R., Zgur, F. and Wardell, N., 2013. Onset and growth of Trough-Mouth Fans on the North-Western Barents Sea margin e implications for the evolution of the Barents Sea/Svalbard Ice Sheet. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, pp.1-8. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C., 2001. Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 106(D23), pp.31943-31964.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; Bryan, Frank O.

2017-05-01

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracer age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26-27.2 σθ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; ...

2017-03-17

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

A regional groundwater-flow model for sustainable groundwater-resource management in the south Asian megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Md Bayzidul; Firoz, A. B. M.; Foglia, Laura; Marandi, Andres; Khan, Abidur Rahman; Schüth, Christoph; Ribbe, Lars

2017-05-01

The water resources that supply most of the megacities in the world are under increased pressure because of land transformation, population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate-change impacts. Dhaka, in Bangladesh, is one of the largest of 22 growing megacities in the world, and it depends on mainly groundwater for all kinds of water needs. The regional groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2005 was used to simulate the interaction between aquifers and rivers in steady-state and transient conditions during the period 1981-2013, to assess the impact of development and climate change on the regional groundwater resources. Detailed hydro-stratigraphic units are described according to 150 lithology logs, and a three-dimensional model of the upper 400 m of the Greater Dhaka area was constructed. The results explain how the total abstraction (2.9 million m3/d) in the Dhaka megacity, which has caused regional cones of depression, is balanced by recharge and induced river leakage. The simulated outcome shows the general trend of groundwater flow in the sedimentary Holocene aquifers under a variety of hydrogeological conditions, which will assist in the future development of a rational and sustainable management approach.

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2009-06-11

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Dynamic Simulation of a Wave Rotor Topped Turboshaft Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greendyke, R. B.; Paxson, D. E.; Schobeiri, M. T.

1997-01-01

The dynamic behavior of a wave rotor topped turboshaft engine is examined using a numerical simulation. The simulation utilizes an explicit, one-dimensional, multi-passage, CFD based wave rotor code in combination with an implicit, one-dimensional, component level dynamic engine simulation code. Transient responses to rapid fuel flow rate changes and compressor inlet pressure changes are simulated and compared with those of a similarly sized, untopped, turboshaft engine. Results indicate that the wave rotor topped engine responds in a stable, and rapid manner. Furthermore, during certain transient operations, the wave rotor actually tends to enhance engine stability. In particular, there is no tendency toward surge in the compressor of the wave rotor topped engine during rapid acceleration. In fact, the compressor actually moves slightly away from the surge line during this transient. This behavior is precisely the opposite to that of an untopped engine. The simulation is described. Issues associated with integrating CFD and component level codes are discussed. Results from several transient simulations are presented and discussed.

Quantifying the Impact of Tropospheric Ozone on Crops Productivity at regional scale using JULES-crop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, F.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is causing significant crop production losses. Currently, O3 concentrations are projected to increase globally, which could have a significant impact on food security. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) is used here to quantify the impacts of tropospheric O3 on crop production at the regional scale until 2100. We evaluate JULES-crop against the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Experimental data from SoyFACE and various literature sources is used to calibrate the parameters for soybean and ozone damage parameters in soybean in JULES-crop. The calibrated model is then applied for a transient factorial set of JULES-crop simulations over 1960-2005. Simulated yield changes are attributed to individual environmental drivers, CO2, O3 and climate change, across regions and for different crops. A mixed scenario of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climatology and ozone are simulated to explore the implication of policy. The overall findings are that regions with high ozone concentration such as China and India suffer the most from ozone damage, soybean is more sensitive to O3 than other crops. JULES-crop predicts CO2 fertilisation would increase the productivity of vegetation. This effect, however, is masked by the negative impacts of tropospheric O3. Using data from FAO and JULES-crop estimated that ozone damage cost around 55.4 Billion USD per year on soybean. Irrigation improves the simulation of rice only, and it increases the relative ozone damage because drought can reduce the ozone from entering the plant stomata. RCP 8.5 scenario results in a high yield for all crops mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Mixed climate scenarios simulations suggest that RCP 8.5 CO2 concentration and RCP 2.6 O3 concentration result in the highest yield. Further works such as more crop FACE-O3 experiments and more Crop functional types in JULES are necessary. The model will thus contribute to a complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on food production. JULES will be later coupled with the Unified Model to quantify the impact of tropospheric O3 on crops productivity including feedbacks between the land-surface, atmospheric chemistry and climate change.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene - comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2014-05-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene- comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2015-02-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Numerical study of vortex rope during load rejection of a prototype pump-turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J. T.; Liu, S. H.; Sun, Y. K.; Wu, Y. L.; Wang, L. Q.

2012-11-01

A transient process of load rejection of a prototype pump-turbine was studied by three dimensional, unsteady simulations, as well as steady calculations.Dynamic mesh (DM) method and remeshing method were used to simulate the rotation of guide vanes and runner. The rotational speed of the runner was predicted by fluid couplingmethod. Both the transient calculation and steady calculation were performed based on turbulence model. Results show that steady calculation results have large error in the prediction of the external characteristics of the transient process. The runaway speed can reach 1.15 times the initial rotational speed during the transient process. The vortex rope occurs before the pump-turbine runs at zero moment point. Vortex rope has the same rotating direction with the runner. The vortex rope is separated into two parts as the flow rate decreases to 0. Pressure level decreases during the whole transient process.The transient simulation result were also compared and verified by experimental results. This computational method could be used in the fault diagnosis of transient operation, as well as the optimization of a transient process.

Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less

Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

DOE PAGES

Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.; ...

2016-07-13

The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less

European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Schär, Christoph; Somot, Samuel; Sørland, Silje Lund; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert

2018-05-01

We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.

Advanced simulation study on bunch gap transient effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Tetsuya; Akai, Kazunori

2016-06-01

Bunch phase shift along the train due to a bunch gap transient is a concern in high-current colliders. In KEKB operation, the measured phase shift along the train agreed well with a simulation and a simple analytical form in most part of the train. However, a rapid phase change was observed at the leading part of the train, which was not predicted by the simulation or by the analytical form. In order to understand the cause of this observation, we have developed an advanced simulation, which treats the transient loading in each of the cavities of the three-cavity system of the accelerator resonantly coupled with energy storage (ARES) instead of the equivalent single cavities used in the previous simulation, operating in the accelerating mode. In this paper, we show that the new simulation reproduces the observation, and clarify that the rapid phase change at the leading part of the train is caused by a transient loading in the three-cavity system of ARES. KEKB is being upgraded to SuperKEKB, which is aiming at 40 times higher luminosity than KEKB. The gap transient in SuperKEKB is investigated using the new simulation, and the result shows that the rapid phase change at the leading part of the train is much larger due to higher beam currents. We will also present measures to mitigate possible luminosity reduction or beam performance deterioration due to the rapid phase change caused by the gap transient.

Simulated fault injection - A methodology to evaluate fault tolerant microprocessor architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Gwan S.; Iyer, Ravishankar K.; Carreno, Victor A.

1990-01-01

A simulation-based fault-injection method for validating fault-tolerant microprocessor architectures is described. The approach uses mixed-mode simulation (electrical/logic analysis), and injects transient errors in run-time to assess the resulting fault impact. As an example, a fault-tolerant architecture which models the digital aspects of a dual-channel real-time jet-engine controller is used. The level of effectiveness of the dual configuration with respect to single and multiple transients is measured. The results indicate 100 percent coverage of single transients. Approximately 12 percent of the multiple transients affect both channels; none result in controller failure since two additional levels of redundancy exist.

Characterizing the role of the hippocampus during episodic simulation and encoding.

PubMed

Thakral, Preston P; Benoit, Roland G; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-12-01

The hippocampus has been consistently associated with episodic simulation (i.e., the mental construction of a possible future episode). In a recent study, we identified an anterior-posterior temporal dissociation within the hippocampus during simulation. Specifically, transient simulation-related activity occurred in relatively posterior portions of the hippocampus and sustained activity occurred in anterior portions. In line with previous theoretical proposals of hippocampal function during simulation, the posterior hippocampal activity was interpreted as reflecting a transient retrieval process for the episodic details necessary to construct an episode. In contrast, the sustained anterior hippocampal activity was interpreted as reflecting the continual recruitment of encoding and/or relational processing associated with a simulation. In the present study, we provide a direct test of these interpretations by conducting a subsequent memory analysis of our previously published data to assess whether successful encoding during episodic simulation is associated with the anterior hippocampus. Analyses revealed a subsequent memory effect (i.e., later remembered > later forgotten simulations) in the anterior hippocampus. The subsequent memory effect was transient and not sustained. Taken together, the current findings provide further support for a component process model of hippocampal function during simulation. That is, unique regions of the hippocampus support dissociable processes during simulation, which include the transient retrieval of episodic information, the sustained binding of such information into a coherent episode, and the transient encoding of that episode for later retrieval. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Design of transient light signal simulator based on FPGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Jing; Chen, Rong-li; Wang, Hong

2014-11-01

A design scheme of transient light signal simulator based on Field Programmable gate Array (FPGA) was proposed in this paper. Based on the characteristics of transient light signals and measured feature points of optical intensity signals, a fitted curve was created in MATLAB. And then the wave data was stored in a programmed memory chip AT29C1024 by using SUPERPRO programmer. The control logic was realized inside one EP3C16 FPGA chip. Data readout, data stream cache and a constant current buck regulator for powering high-brightness LEDs were all controlled by FPGA. A 12-Bit multiplying CMOS digital-to-analog converter (DAC) DAC7545 and an amplifier OPA277 were used to convert digital signals to voltage signals. A voltage-controlled current source constituted by a NPN transistor and an operational amplifier controlled LED array diming to achieve simulation of transient light signal. LM3405A, 1A Constant Current Buck Regulator for Powering LEDs, was used to simulate strong background signal in space. Experimental results showed that the scheme as a transient light signal simulator can satisfy the requests of the design stably.

Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

2017-04-01

Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

Large-Scale Weather Disturbances in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2015-11-01

Between late autumn and early spring, Mars’ middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal gradients between the tropics and poles. Observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). These extratropical weather disturbances are key components of the global circulation. Such wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively lifted and radiatively active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars’ full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating key large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars’ transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are highly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). The occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring appears to be anchored to the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Mode and climatic factors effect on energy losses in transient heat modes of transmission lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigun, A. Ya; Sidorov, O. A.; Osipov, D. S.; Girshin, S. S.; Goryunov, V. N.; Petrova, E. V.

2018-01-01

Electrical energy losses increase in modern grids. The losses are connected with an increase in consumption. Existing models of electric power losses estimation considering climatic factors do not allow estimating the cable temperature in real time. Considering weather and mode factors in real time allows to meet effectively and safely the consumer’s needs to minimize energy losses during transmission, to use electric power equipment effectively. These factors increase an interest in the evaluation of the dynamic thermal mode of overhead transmission lines conductors. The article discusses an approximate analytic solution of the heat balance equation in the transient operation mode of overhead lines based on the least squares method. The accuracy of the results obtained is comparable with the results of solving the heat balance equation of transient thermal mode with the Runge-Kutt method. The analysis of mode and climatic factors effect on the cable temperature in a dynamic thermal mode is presented. The calculation of the maximum permissible current for variation of weather conditions is made. The average electric energy losses during the transient process are calculated with the change of wind, air temperature and solar radiation. The parameters having the greatest effect on the transmission capacity are identified.

Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, A. G.; Grillakis, M. G.; Daliakopoulos, I. N.; Tsanis, I. K.; Jacob, D.

2016-01-01

Ensemble pan-European projections under a 2 °C global warming relative to the preindustrial period reveal a more intense warming in south Eastern Europe by up to +3 °C, thus indicating that impacts of climate change will be disproportionately high for certain regions. The Mediterranean is projected as one of the most vulnerable areas to climatic and anthropogenic changes with decreasing rainfall trends and a continuous gradual warming causing a progressive decline of average stream flow. Many Mediterranean regions are currently experiencing high to severe water stress induced by human and climate drivers. Changes in average climate conditions will increase this stress notably because of a 10-30% decline in freshwater resources. For small island states, where accessibility to freshwater resources is limited the impact will be more pronounced. Here we use a generalized cross-sectoral framework to assess the impact of climatic and socioeconomic futures on the water resources of an Eastern Mediterranean island. A set of representative regional climate models simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative driven by different RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 GCMs are used to form a comparable set of results and a useful basis for the assessment of uncertainties related to impacts of 2° warming and above. A generalized framework of a cross-sectoral water resources analysis was developed in collaboration with the local water authority exploring and costing adaptation measures associated with a set of socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Transient hydrological modeling was performed to describe the projected hydro-climatological regime and water availability for each warming level. The robust signal of less precipitation and higher temperatures that is projected by climate simulations results to a severe decrease of local water resources which can be mitigated by a number of actions. Awareness of the practical implications of plausible hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios in the not so distant future may be the key to shift perception and preference towards a more sustainable direction.

Simulation of transient effects in the heavy ion fusion injectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Jiuan; Hewett, D. W.

1993-05-01

We have used the 2-D PIC code, GYMNOS, to study the transient behaviors in the Heavy Ion Fusion (HIF) injectors. GYMNOS simulations accurately provide the steady state Child-Langmuir current and the beam transient behavior within a planar diode. The simulations of the LBL HIF ESAC injector experiments agree well with the experimental data and EGUN steady state results. Simulations of the nominal HIF injectors have revealed the need to design the accelerating electrodes carefully to control the ion beam current, particularly the ion loss at the end of the bunch as the extraction voltage is reduced.

Thermal fatigue life evaluation of SnAgCu solder joints in a multi-chip power module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbagallo, C.; Malgioglio, G. L.; Petrone, G.; Cammarata, G.

2017-05-01

For power devices, the reliability of thermal fatigue induced by thermal cycling has been prioritized as an important concern. The main target of this work is to apply a numerical procedure to assess the fatigue life for lead-free solder joints, that represent, in general, the weakest part of the electronic modules. Starting from a real multi-chip power module, FE-based models were built-up by considering different conditions in model implementation in order to simulate, from one hand, the worst working condition for the module and, from another one, the module standing into a climatic test room performing thermal cycles. Simulations were carried-out both in steady and transient conditions in order to estimate the module thermal maps, the stress-strain distributions, the effective plastic strain distributions and finally to assess the number of cycles to failure of the constitutive solder layers.

Kinetics of transient electroluminescence in organic light emitting diodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Manju; Kumar, Pankaj; Chand, Suresh; Brahme, Nameeta; Kher, R. S.; Khokhar, M. S. K.

2008-08-01

Mathematical simulation on the rise and decay kinetics of transient electroluminescence (EL) in organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) is presented. The transient EL is studied with respect to a step voltage pulse. While rising, for lower values of time, the EL intensity shows a quadratic dependence on (t - tdel), where tdel is the time delay observed in the onset of EL, and finally attains saturation at a sufficiently large time. When the applied voltage is switched off, the initial EL decay shows an exponential dependence on (t - tdec), where tdec is the time when the voltage is switched off. The simulated results are compared with the transient EL performance of a bilayer OLED based on small molecular bis(2-methyl 8-hydroxyquinoline)(triphenyl siloxy) aluminium (SAlq). Transient EL studies have been carried out at different voltage pulse amplitudes. The simulated results show good agreement with experimental data. Using these simulated results the lifetime of the excitons in SAlq has also been calculated.

Transient electro-thermal characterization of Si-Ge heterojunction bipolar transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Amit Kumar; Weiß, Mario; Fregonese, Sébastien; Malbert, Nathalie; Zimmer, Thomas

2012-08-01

In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation of the transient self-heating in microwave heterojunction bipolar transistors (HBTs) have been carried out through simulations and measurements. Three dimensional thermal TCAD simulations have been performed to investigate precisely the influence of backend metallization on transient thermal behavior of a submicron SiGe:C BiCMOS technology with fT and fmax of 230 GHz and 290 GHz, respectively. Transient variation of Collector current caused by self-heating is obtained through pulse measurements. For thermal characterization, different electro-thermal networks have been employed at the temperature node of HiCuM compact model. Thermal parameters have been extracted by means of compact model simulation using a scalable transistor library. It has been shown that, the conventional R-C thermal network is not sufficient to accurately model the transient thermal spreading behavior and therefore a recursive network needs to be used. Recursive network is verified with device simulations as well as measurements and found to be in excellent agreement.

Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010

DOE PAGES

Forbes, Whitney L.; Mao, Jiafu; Jin, Mingzhou; ...

2018-05-04

Runoff in the United States is changing, and this study finds that the measured change is dependent on the geographic region and varies seasonally. Specifically, observed annual total runoff had an insignificant increasing trend in the US between 1950 and 2010, but this insignificance was due to regional heterogeneity with both significant and insignificant increases in the eastern, northern, and southern US, and a greater significant decrease in the western US. Trends for seasonal mean runoff also differed across regions. By region, the season with the largest observed trend was autumn for the east (positive), spring for the north (positive),more » winter for the south (positive), winter for the west (negative), and autumn for the US as a whole (positive). Based on the detection and attribution analysis using gridded WaterWatch runoff observations along with semi-factorial land surface model simulations from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we found that while the roles of CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover were inconsistent regionally and seasonally, the effect of climatic variations was detected for all regions and seasons, and the change in runoff could be attributed to climate change in summer and autumn in the south and in autumn in the west. It was also found that the climate-only and historical transient simulations consistently underestimated the runoff trends, possibly due to precipitation bias in the MsTMIP driver or within the models themselves.« less

The impact of an extreme case of irrigation on the southeastern United States climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasubandhu

2017-02-01

The impacts of irrigation on southeast United States diurnal climate are investigated using simulations from a regional climate model. An extreme case is assumed, wherein irrigation is set to 100 % of field capacity over the growing season of May through October. Irrigation is applied to the root zone layers of 10-40 and 40-100 cm soil layers only. It is found that in this regime there is a pronounced decrease in monthly averaged temperatures in irrigated regions across all months. In non-irrigated areas a slight warming is simulated. Diurnal maximum temperatures in irrigated areas warm, while diurnal minimum temperatures cool. The daytime warming is attributed to an increase in shortwave flux at the surface owing to diminished low cloud cover. Nighttime and daily mean cooling result as a consequence repartitioning of energy into latent heat flux over sensible heat flux, and of a higher net downward ground heat flux. Excess heat is transported into the deep soil layer, preventing a rapidly intensifying positive feedback loop. Both diurnal and monthly average precipitations are reduced over irrigated areas at a magnitude and spatial pattern similar to one another. Due to the excess moisture availability, evaporation is seen to increase, but this is nearly balanced by a corresponding reduction in sensible heat flux. Concomitant with additional moisture availability is an increase in both transient and stationary moisture flux convergences. However, despite the increase, there is a large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere stemming from a cooled surface.

Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forbes, Whitney L.; Mao, Jiafu; Jin, Mingzhou

Runoff in the United States is changing, and this study finds that the measured change is dependent on the geographic region and varies seasonally. Specifically, observed annual total runoff had an insignificant increasing trend in the US between 1950 and 2010, but this insignificance was due to regional heterogeneity with both significant and insignificant increases in the eastern, northern, and southern US, and a greater significant decrease in the western US. Trends for seasonal mean runoff also differed across regions. By region, the season with the largest observed trend was autumn for the east (positive), spring for the north (positive),more » winter for the south (positive), winter for the west (negative), and autumn for the US as a whole (positive). Based on the detection and attribution analysis using gridded WaterWatch runoff observations along with semi-factorial land surface model simulations from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we found that while the roles of CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover were inconsistent regionally and seasonally, the effect of climatic variations was detected for all regions and seasons, and the change in runoff could be attributed to climate change in summer and autumn in the south and in autumn in the west. It was also found that the climate-only and historical transient simulations consistently underestimated the runoff trends, possibly due to precipitation bias in the MsTMIP driver or within the models themselves.« less

Setting up a model intercomparison project for the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Valdes, P. J.; Roche, D. M.; Kageyama, M.

2014-12-01

The last deglaciation (~ 21-9 ka) presents a series of opportunities to study the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate changes and long-term trends in the Earth System. Most of the forcings are relatively well constrained and geological archives record responses over a range of timescales. Despite this, large uncertainties remain over the feedback loops that culminated in the collapse of the great Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, and a consensus has yet to be reached on the chains of events that led to rapid surface warming and cooling during this period.Climate models are powerful tools for quantitatively assessing these outstanding issues through their ability to temporally resolve cause and effect, as well as break down the contributions from different forcings. This is well demonstrated by pioneering work; for example by Liu et al. (2009), Roche et al. (2011), Gregoire et al. (2012) and Menviel et al. (2011). However, such work is not without challenges; model-geological data mismatches remain unsolved and it is difficult to compare results from different models with unique experiment designs. Therefore, we have established a multidisciplinary Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project working group to coordinate transient climate model simulations and geological archive compilations of the last deglaciation. Here, we present the plans and progress of the working group in its first phase of activity; the investigation of Heinrich Stadial 1 and the lead into the Bolling warming event. We describe the set-up of the core deglacial experiment, explain our approach for dealing with uncertain climate forcings and outline our solutions to challenges posed by this research. By defining a common experiment design, we have built a framework to include models of different speeds, complexities and resolution, maximising the reward of this varied approach. One of the next challenges is to compile transient proxy records and develop a methodology for dealing with uncertainty and error in model-geological data comparisons. Through this global and interdisciplinary initiative, we combine multi-proxy records with a suite of different modelling techniques to test hypotheses for abrupt climate changes and reconstruct the chain of events that deglaciated the Earth 21-9 ka.

Effects of Irrigation on Global Climate During the 20th Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puma, M. J.; Cook, B. I.

2010-01-01

Various studies have documented the effects of modern ]day irrigation on regional and global climate, but none, to date, have considered the time ]varying impact of steadily increasing irrigation rates on climate during the 20th century. We investigate the impacts of observed irrigation changes over this century with two ensemble simulations using an atmosphere general circulation model. Both ensembles are forced with transient climate forcings and observed sea surface temperatures from 1902 to 2000; one ensemble includes irrigation specified by a time ]varying data set of irrigation water withdrawals. Early in the century, irrigation is primarily localized over southern and eastern Asia, leading to significant cooling in boreal summer (June.August) over these regions. This cooling spreads and intensifies by century fs end, following the rapid expansion of irrigation over North America, Europe, and Asia. Irrigation also leads to boreal winter (December.February) warming over parts of North America and Asia in the latter part of the century, due to enhanced downward longwave fluxes from increased near ]surface humidity. Precipitation increases occur primarily downwind of the major irrigation areas, although precipitation in parts of India decreases due to a weaker summer monsoon. Irrigation begins to significantly reduce temperatures and temperature trends during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropics beginning around 1950; significant increases in precipitation occur in these same latitude bands. These trends reveal the varying importance of irrigation ]climate interactions and suggest that future climate studies should account for irrigation, especially in regions with unsustainable irrigation resources.

Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

2013-04-01

While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.

Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Markus; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin

2018-04-01

In simulations with the MPI Earth System Model, we study the feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 concentrations under ice age and interglacial conditions. We find different sensitivities of terrestrial carbon storage to rising CO2 concentrations in the two settings. This result is obtained by comparing the transient response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to a fast and strong atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (roughly 900 ppm) in Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)-type simulations starting from climates representing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial times (PI). In this set-up we disentangle terrestrial contributions to the feedback from the carbon-concentration effect, acting biogeochemically via enhanced photosynthetic productivity when CO2 concentrations increase, and the carbon-climate effect, which affects the carbon cycle via greenhouse warming. We find that the carbon-concentration effect is larger under LGM than PI conditions because photosynthetic productivity is more sensitive when starting from the lower, glacial CO2 concentration and CO2 fertilization saturates later. This leads to a larger productivity increase in the LGM experiment. Concerning the carbon-climate effect, it is the PI experiment in which land carbon responds more sensitively to the warming under rising CO2 because at the already initially higher temperatures, tropical plant productivity deteriorates more strongly and extratropical carbon is respired more effectively. Consequently, land carbon losses increase faster in the PI than in the LGM case. Separating the carbon-climate and carbon-concentration effects, we find that they are almost additive for our model set-up; i.e. their synergy is small in the global sum of carbon changes. Together, the two effects result in an overall strength of the terrestrial carbon cycle feedback that is almost twice as large in the LGM experiment as in the PI experiment. For PI, ocean and land contributions to the total feedback are of similar size, while in the LGM case the terrestrial feedback is dominant.

Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: an ESM sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard; Seneviratne, Sonia

2014-05-01

Mitigation efforts to reduce anthropogenic climate forcing have thus far proven inadequate, as evident from accelerating greenhouse gas emissions. Many subtropical and mid-latitude regions are expected to experience longer and more frequent heat waves and droughts within the next century. This increased occurrence of weather extremes has important implications for human health, mortality and for socio-economic factors including forest fires, water availability and agricultural production. Various solar radiation management (SRM) schemes that attempt to homogeneously counter the anthropogenic forcing have been examined with different Earth System Models (ESM). Land climate engineering schemes have also been investigated which reduces the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed at the surface. However, few studies have investigated their effects on extremes but rather on mean climate response. Here we present the results of a series of climate engineering sensitivity experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.2 at 2°-resolution. This configuration entails 5 fully coupled model components responsible for simulating the Earth's atmosphere, land, land-ice, ocean and sea-ice that interact through a central coupler. Historical and RCP8.5 scenarios were performed with transient land-cover changes and prognostic terrestrial Carbon/Nitrogen cycles. Four sets of experiments are performed in which surface albedo over snow-free vegetated grid points is increased by 0.5, 0.10, 0.15 and 0.20. The simulations show a strong preferential cooling of hot extremes throughout the Northern mid-latitudes during boreal summer. A strong linear scaling between the cooling of extremes and additional surface albedo applied to the land model is observed. The strongest preferential cooling is found in southeastern Europe and the central United States, where increases of soil moisture and evaporative fraction are the largest relative to the control simulation. This preferential cooling is found to intensify in the future scenario. Cloud cover strongly limits the efficacy of a given surface albedo increase to reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. As anthropogenic forcing increases, cloud cover decreases over much of the northern mid-latitudes in CESM.

Analog-digital simulation of transient-induced logic errors and upset susceptibility of an advanced control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Victor A.; Choi, G.; Iyer, R. K.

1990-01-01

A simulation study is described which predicts the susceptibility of an advanced control system to electrical transients resulting in logic errors, latched errors, error propagation, and digital upset. The system is based on a custom-designed microprocessor and it incorporates fault-tolerant techniques. The system under test and the method to perform the transient injection experiment are described. Results for 2100 transient injections are analyzed and classified according to charge level, type of error, and location of injection.

Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling of Late-Quaternary Variations in Pollen-Based Compositional Dissimilarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. W.; Blois, J.; Ferrier, S.; Manion, G.; Fitzpatrick, M.; Veloz, S.; He, F.; Liu, Z.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2011-12-01

In Quaternary paleoecology and paleoclimatology, compositionally dissimilar fossil assemblages usually indicate dissimilar environments; this relationship underpins assemblage-level techniques for paleoenvironmental reconstruction such as mutual climatic ranges or the modern analog technique. However, there has been relatively little investigation into the form of the relationship between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity. Here we apply generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM; Ferrier et al. 2007) as a tool for modeling the expected non-linear relationships between compositional and climatic dissimilarity. We use the CCSM3.0 transient paleoclimatic simulations from the SynTrace working group (Liu et al. 2009) and a new generation of fossil pollen maps from eastern North America (Blois et al. 2011) to 1) assess the spatial relationships between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity and 2) whether these spatial relationships change over time. We used a taxonomic list of 106 genus-level pollen types, six climatic variables (winter precipitation and mean temperature, summer precipitation and temperature, seasonality of precipitation, and seasonality of temperature) that were chosen to minimize collinearity, and a cross-referenced pollen and climate dataset mapped for time slices spaced 1000 years apart. When GDM was trained for one time slice, the correlation between predicted and observed spatial patterns of community dissimilarity for other times ranged between 0.3 and 0.73. The selection of climatic predictor variables changed over time, as did the form of the relationship between compositional turnover and climatic predictors. Summer temperature was the only variable selected for all time periods. These results thus suggest that the relationship between compositional dissimilarity in pollen assemblages (and, by implication, beta diversity in plant communities) and climatic dissimilarity can change over time, for reasons to be further studied.

Earth system responses to cumulative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2015-07-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil carbon emissions and multiple climate targets are essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient responses in different climate variables are quantified for a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization and in idealized experiments using the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model. The model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte-Carlo type framework. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.88 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.28 to 2.69 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and in steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The slopes of the relationships change when CO2 is stabilized. The Transient Climate Response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models, but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

Documentation of a computer program to simulate transient leakage from confining units using the modular finite-difference, ground-water flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leake, S.A.; Leahy, P.P.; Navoy, A.S.

1994-01-01

Transient leakage into or out of a compressible fine-grained confining unit results from ground- water storage changes within the unit. The computer program described in this report provides a new method of simulating transient leakage using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite- difference ground-water flow model (MODFLOW). The new program is referred to as the Transient- Leakage Package. The Transient-Leakage Package solves integrodifferential equations that describe flow across the upper and lower boundaries of confining units. For each confining unit, vertical hydraulic conductivity, thickness, and specific storage are specified in input arrays. These properties can vary from cell to cell and the confining unit need not be present at all locations in the grid; however, the confining units must be bounded above and below by model layers in which head is calculated or specified. The package was used in an example problem to simulate drawdown around a pumping well in a system with two aquifers separated by a confining unit. For drawdown values in excess of 1 centimeter, the solution using the new package closely matched an exact analytical solution. The problem also was simulated without the new package by using a separate model layer to represent the confining unit. That simulation was refined by using two model layers to represent the confining unit. The simulation using the Transient-Leakage Package was faster and more accurate than either of the simulations using model layers to represent the confining unit.

How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

2015-12-01

Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

Modeling biogeochemical responses of vegetation to ENSO: comparison and analysis on subgrid PFT patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2016-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important interannual climate variability and has significant consequences and impacts on the global biosphere. The responses of vegetation to ENSO are highly heterogeneous and generally depend on the biophysical and biochemical characteristics associated with model plant functional types (PFTs). The modeled biogeochemical variables from Earth System Models (ESMs) are generally grid averages consisting of several PFTs within a gridcell, which will lead to difficulties in directly comparing them with site observations and large uncertainties in studying their responses to large scale climate variability. In this study, we conducted a transient ENSO simulation for the previoustwo decades from 1995 to 2020 using the DOE ACME v0.3 model. It has a comprehensive terrestrial biogeochemistry model that is fully coupled with a sophisticated atmospheric model with an advanced spectral element dynamical core. The model was driven by the NOAA optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (SST) for contemporary years and CFS v2 nine-month seasonal predicted and reconstructed SST for future years till to 2020. We saved the key biogeochemical variables in the subgrid PFT patches and compared them with site observations directly. Furthermore, we studied the biogeochemical responses of terrestrial vegetation to two largest ENSO events (1997-1998 and 2015-2016) for different PFTs. Our results show that it is useful and meaningful to compare and analyze model simulations in subgrid patches. The comparison and analysis not only gave us the details of responses of terrestrial ecosystem to global climate variability under changing climate, but also the insightful view on the model performance on the PFT level.

Effects of Pre-industrial Agricultural Expansion and Epidemics on the Climate and the Carbon Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, J.; Raddatz, T.; Reick, C.; Claussen, M.

2008-12-01

To assess the effects of anthropogenic land cover change on the pre-industrial climate and carbon cycle we apply a new, detailed reconstruction of land cover for the last millennium in a general circulation model. A transient simulation including the marine and terrestrial carbon cycle suggests that the agricultural expansion increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 3.5 ppm between AD 800 and the late pre- industrial period. Taking into account land cover change prior to the last millennium, up to 5 ppm of the Holocene CO2 increase may be attributed to changes in vegetation and soil carbon as a consequence of agricultural activity. This value is smaller but of similar magnitude than the estimates by Ruddiman (2007). In contrast to his study the ocean is simulated to be a sink rather than a source of carbon at least during the last millennium, leaving much of the observed pre-industrial CO2 increase unexplained. On a regional scale, epidemics have the potential to change land cover by allowing natural vegetation to regrow on abandoned agricultural areas. While the land cover reconstruction indicates only small absolute changes in agricultural areas after European conquest of the Americas, it indicates forest regrowth on about 0.18 million km2 in Europe as a consequence of the medieval Black Death. For this event, simulations of radiative forcing show that the energy balance is significantly altered by the changes in surface albedo. This suggests that local to regional climate may be modified by the biogeophysical effects of vegetation changes induced by epidemics. First results, however, indicate that the amount of carbon taken up by the regrowing vegetation may not suffice to counterbalance the emissions of expanding agriculture in the other parts of the world. The effect on atmospheric CO2 concentrations may thus be small. Ensemble simulations are planned to compare the effects of epidemics on atmospheric CO2 with natural variability.

Modelled non-linear response to climate of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap, southern Norway, since the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åkesson, Henning; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Giesen, Rianne H.; Morlighem, Mathieu

2016-04-01

Glacier and ice cap volume changes currently amount to half of the total cryospheric contribution to sea-level rise and are projected to remain substantial throughout the 21st century. To simulate glacier behavior on centennial and longer time scales, models rely on simplified dynamics and tunable parameters for processes not well understood. Model calibration is often done using present-day observations, even though the relationship between parameters and parametrized processes may be altered for significantly different glacier states. In this study, we simulate the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene, through the Little Ice Age (LIA) and into the future. We run an ensemble for both calibration and transient experiments, using a two-dimensional ice flow model with mesh refinement. For the Holocene, we apply a simple mass balance forcing based on climate reconstructions. For the LIA until 1962, we use geomorphological evidence and measured outlet glacier positions to find a mass balance history, while we use direct mass balance measurements from 1963 until today. Given a linear climate forcing, we show that Hardangerøkulen grew from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene, to its maximum LIA extent in a highly non-linear fashion. We relate this to local bed topography and demonstrate that volume and area of some but not all outlet glaciers, as well as the entire ice cap, become decoupled for several centuries during our simulation of the late Holocene, before co-varying approaching the LIA. Our model is able to simulate most recorded ice cap and outlet glacier changes from the LIA until today. We show that present-day Hardangerøkulen is highly sensitive to mass balance changes, and estimate that the ice cap will melt completely by the year 2100.

Look-ahead Dynamic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2015-10-20

Look-ahead dynamic simulation software system incorporates the high performance parallel computing technologies, significantly reduces the solution time for each transient simulation case, and brings the dynamic simulation analysis into on-line applications to enable more transparency for better reliability and asset utilization. It takes the snapshot of the current power grid status, functions in parallel computing the system dynamic simulation, and outputs the transient response of the power system in real time.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

Holocene climate change in North Africa and the end of the African humid period - results of new high-resolution transient simulations with the MPI-ESM 1.3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Lorenz, Stephan

2017-04-01

The Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology has recently undertaken high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the fully-coupled Earth System Model MPI-ESM 1.3. The simulations cover the last 8000 years and are forced not only by reconstructed Holocene orbital variations and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but also by recent compilations of Holocene volcanic aerosol distributions, variations in spectral solar irradiance, stratospheric ozone and land-use change. The simulations reveal the ubiquitous "Holocene conundrum": simulated global mean temperatures increase during the mid-Holocene and stay constant during the late Holocene. Simulated mid-Holocene near-surface temperatures are too cold in large parts of the world. Simulated precipitation, however, agrees much better with reconstruction than temperatures do. Likewise simulated global biome pattern fit reconstructions nicely, except for North Western America. First results of these simulations are presented with the main focus on the North African monsoon region. The amplitude of the mid-Holocene African Humid Period (AHP) is well captured in terms of precipitation and vegetation cover, so is the south-ward transgression of the termination of the AHP seen in reconstructions. The Holocene weakening and southward retreat of the North African monsoon as well as changes in the monsoon dynamic including shifts in the seasonal cycle and their relation to the locally varying termination of the AHP are discussed in detail. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader (1), Sebastian Bathiany (2), Victor Brovkin (1), Martin Claussen (1,3), Traute Crüger (1), Roberta D'agostino (1), Anne Dallmeyer (1), Sabine Egerer (1), Vivienne Groner (1), Matthias Heinze (1), Tatiana Ilyina (1), Johann Jungclaus (1), Thomas Kleinen (1), Alexander Lemburg (1), Stephan Lorenz (1), Thomas Raddatz (1), Hauke Schmidt (1), Gerhard Schmiedl (3), Bjorn Stevens (1), Claudia Timmreck (1), Matthew Toohey (4) (1) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, D (2) Wageningen University, NL (3) CEN, Universität Hamburg, D (4) GEOMAR Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, D

Impacts of peatland and permafrost changes on the terrestrial carbon storage over the last 21 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahni, Renato; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Joos, Fortunat

2014-05-01

Paleoclimate records and global climate-carbon cycle models suggest a net increase in land carbon (C) storage between 300 and 700 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C) during the transition from the last glacial maximum (LGM), the Holocene up to the preindustrial period. Peat accumulation rate records imply an increase in peatland C of ~600 Pg C over the course of the Holocene. In high northern latitudes mineral and organic soils are subject to permafrost formation, which is believed to have been more extensive during glacial compared to interglacial periods. Soil C in permafrost regions represents the largest inert C pool on land at present. The spatio-temporal evolution, however, of C stocks in soils and vegetation remains poorly quantified and is uncertain. Here, the Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Bern) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is applied in transient simulations to explore the evolution of permafrost, peatland and vegetation C over the last 21'000 years. The model is forced with temperature and precipitation output from the Trace-21ka climate simulation, and dynamically simulates the formation and disappearance of peatlands and permafrost soils, vegetation distribution and C stocks. Results indicate that peatlands and permfrost areas existed further south in the LGM, in agreement with available proxy information, and that their associated C was lost during the transition into the Holocene. The simulated loss of inert C is over-compensated by vegetation regrowth. The timing of the C relocation on land is compared to observational evidence from paleoclimate archives and estimates from ocean C inventory changes.

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

CO/sub 2/ and Spaceship Earth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terra, S.

1978-01-01

Atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations have increased so rapidly since the start of the industrial revolution that the threat of climatic and economic disruptions may require limitations on future fossil-energy production. The greenhouse effect by which longwave radiation is absorbed by CO/sub 2/ and reradiated back to earth, will raise the earth's temperature. Other factors can be traced to a warming trend caused by an increase in nitrous oxides from agricultural activity and a cooling tendency as the added warmth increases evaporation and cloud formation. Several national and international studies of CO/sub 2/ effects are underway and legislation for further datamore » and research has been proposed in Congress. While scientists agree that CO/sub 2/ levels are increasing, they disagree on the nature of the long-term effects on climate, crop production, deglaciation, and the impact of forest and other biological matter. Simulation models for projecting future conditions need to include transients to predict the effects of CO/sub 2/ level changes.« less

Impacts of climatic change on forest structure in the Midwestern Great Lakes region: An integrated gap model and geographical information system (GIS) approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eman, J.L.; Randolph, J.C.; Fan, Weihong

The transient effects of an 80-year climate change scenario on 56 tree species are evaluated within the regional forested landscape matrix of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The JABOWA-II forest growth model was integrated with a GIS housing several federally-produced databases which were vital for input file development. A 4km{sup 2} resolution enabled high parameter specificity for each of the 54,345 representative 100m{sup 2} plots. Ten iterations of simulated growth response at each site followed model calibration. Changes in relative regional dominance and shifts in population centroids over two periods (1981-2020 and 2020-2060) indicated that most responses were species-specific.more » Notable among these were the substantial dominance increases of Populus tremuloides and Quercus alba from 1981-2020. Shared response patterns included conifers` centroid shifts to the northwest and overall dominance reductions.« less

Global temperature change

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

Open-source framework for power system transmission and distribution dynamics co-simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Renke; Fan, Rui; Daily, Jeff

The promise of the smart grid entails more interactions between the transmission and distribution networks, and there is an immediate need for tools to provide the comprehensive modelling and simulation required to integrate operations at both transmission and distribution levels. Existing electromagnetic transient simulators can perform simulations with integration of transmission and distribution systems, but the computational burden is high for large-scale system analysis. For transient stability analysis, currently there are only separate tools for simulating transient dynamics of the transmission and distribution systems. In this paper, we introduce an open source co-simulation framework “Framework for Network Co-Simulation” (FNCS), togethermore » with the decoupled simulation approach that links existing transmission and distribution dynamic simulators through FNCS. FNCS is a middleware interface and framework that manages the interaction and synchronization of the transmission and distribution simulators. Preliminary testing results show the validity and capability of the proposed open-source co-simulation framework and the decoupled co-simulation methodology.« less

Modeling global vegetation in the late Quaternary: What progress have we made and what are the priorities for the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Jed

2017-04-01

More than two decades ago, the development of the first global biogeography models led to an interest in simulating global land cover in the past. These models promised the possibility of creating a coherent picture of the Earth's vegetation that went beyond qualitative extrapolation of site-based observations, e.g., from paleoecological archives, and was not limited to areas with a high density of sites. Then as now, the goal of much work simulating past vegetation was to explore and understand the role of biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the Earth's land surface and the climate system. Paleovegetation modeling for the late Quaternary has also influenced debates on the character of natural vegetation, conservation and ecological restoration goals, and the co-evolution of humans, civilizations, and the landscapes in which they live. The first simulations of global land cover in the past used equilibrium vegetation models, e.g., BIOME1, BIOME3, and BIOME4, and focused on well-known timeslices of interest in paleoclimate research, including the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 BP) and the mid-Holocene (6,000 BP). Questions addressed included: quantification of the importance of terrestrial vegetation in the glacial carbon cycle, the role of changing vegetation cover on glacial inception, and the influence of biogeophysical feedbacks on the amplitude and spatial pattern of the mid-Holocene African Monsoon. In the intervening years, as both vegetation and climate models evolved and improved, the spatial resolution, number of periods studied, and the type of research questions addressed expanded greatly. Studies covered the dynamics of Arctic vegetation, wetland area, wetland methane emissions, and paleo-atmospheric chemistry, dust emissions and effects on paleoclimate, among others. A major recent advance in paleovegetation modeling for the late Quaternary has come with the development of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) that are capable of simulating changing vegetation cover over time, continuously. Several DGVMs have been directly incorporated into the land surface scheme of modern Earth System Models (ESMs), further allowing the exploration of land-atmosphere feedbacks, e.g., during abrupt climate change events, such as those that occurred during the last deglaciation. Recent increases in computer power have also allowed offline simulations, i.e., not directly coupled to an ESM, with DGVMs to simulate vegetation change over long time periods, e.g., continuously for the entire Holocene. Realizing that climate change alone was not the only driver of land cover change over the late Quaternary, the most recent developments in paleovegetation modeling for this period have incorporated human agency as an influence on vegetation. Incorporation of scenarios of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change into DGVMs has allowed a quantitative contribution to the ongoing, lively debate regarding the role of humans in influencing Holocene atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. With the further advances in ESMs and the availability of very long climate model simulations, e.g., TraCE-21ka, improvements to DGVMs such as the explicit representation of age structure and plant traits, and the increasing awareness of the importance of human-environment interactions, the future of paleovegetation modeling for the late Quaternary presents a variety of opportunities. One important focus for future modeling should be on simulating the dynamics of ecotones, e.g., forest-grassland boundaries, over time, particularly during abrupt transient climate change events. Accurate simulation of ecotone boundaries is traditionally a weakness in DGVMs, yet these environments are highly valued by humans for their ecosystem services both at present and in the past, paleoecological evidence suggests that ecotone boundaries were very sensitive to past climate change, and they are critical locations where land-atmosphere feedbacks could have amplified or attenuated ongoing, externally-forced climate change. Lessons drawn from paleovegetation simulations may shed new light on the behavior of the earth system that will be valuable for understanding the future.

Modeling Study of the Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Late Spring Drought in South China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Ning; Liu, Xiaohong

2013-10-01

In this study, the mechanisms underlying the decadal variability of late spring precipitation in south China are investigated using the latest version 1 of Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We aim to unravel the effects of different climate forcing agents, such as aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), on the decadal variation of precipitation with transient experiments from pre-industry (for year 1850) to present-day (for year 2000). Our results reveal that: (1) CESM1 can reproduce the climatological features of atmospheric circulation and precipitation for the late spring in south China; (2) Only simulations including the forcing of anthropogenic aerosols can reproducemore » the observed decreasing trend of late spring precipitation from 1950-2000 in south China; (3) Aerosols affect the decadal change of precipitation mainly by altering the large scale atmospheric circulation, and to a less extent by increasing the lower-tropospheric stability to inhibit the convective precipitation; and (4) In comparison, other climate forcing agents, such as GHGs, have much smaller effects on the decadal change of spring precipitation in south China. Key words: precipitation, aerosols, climate change, south China, Community Earth System Model« less

Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant parameter values over the whole reference period. Further, preliminary results suggest that some trends in parameter values do not reflect changes in hydrological processes, as reported by others previously, but instead might stem from a modeling artifact related to the parameterization of evapotranspiration, which is overly sensitive to temperature increase. We adopt a trading-space-for-time approach to better understand whether robust relationships between parameter values and forcing can be established, and to critically explore the rationale behind time-dependent parameter values in conceptual hydrological models.

CHARACTERIZING STORM HYDROGRAPH RISE AND FALL DYNAMICS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH STREAM STAGE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Stormflow transients (i.e., hydrograph rise and fall dynamics) have been shown to impact stream biota through impacts on habitat quality and availability. However, little is known about how climate variability and temporal resolution of transient data may color the putative relat...

Transient Analysis of Pressurization and Pneumatic Subsystems of the X-34 Main Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hedayat, A.; Knight, K. C.; Chamption, R. H., Jr.; Kennedy, Jim W. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Transient models for the pressurization, vent/relief, and pneumatic subsystems of the X-34 Main Propulsion System are presented and simulation of their operation within prescribed requirements are provided. First, using ROCket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) program, pressurization subsystem operation was simulated and helium requirements and the ullage thermodynamic condition within each propellant tank were calculated. Then, Overpressurization scenarios of propellant tanks and the response of vent/relief valves were evaluated using ROCETS simulation of simultaneous operation of the pressurization and vent/relief subsystems by incorporating the valves data into the model. Finally, the ROCETS simulation of in-flight operation of pneumatic subsystem predicted the overall helium consumption, Inter-Propellant Seal (IPS) purge flowrate and thermodynamic conditions, and Spin Start power.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions.

PubMed

Millar, Richard J; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-13

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or 'effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO 2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO 2 -only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO 2 -induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO 2 warming in some ensemble members.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

PubMed Central

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-01-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, D. T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Milly, G.

2012-01-01

Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.

Coupled field effects in BWR stability simulations using SIMULATE-3K

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Borkowski, J.; Smith, K.; Hagrman, D.

1996-12-31

The SIMULATE-3K code is the transient analysis version of the Studsvik advanced nodal reactor analysis code, SIMULATE-3. Recent developments have focused on further broadening the range of transient applications by refinement of core thermal-hydraulic models and on comparison with boiling water reactor (BWR) stability measurements performed at Ringhals unit 1, during the startups of cycles 14 through 17.

Features of Chaotic Transients in Excitable Media Governed by Spiral and Scroll Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilienkamp, Thomas; Christoph, Jan; Parlitz, Ulrich

2017-08-01

In excitable media, chaotic dynamics governed by spiral or scroll waves is often not persistent but transient. Using extensive simulations employing different mathematical models we identify a specific type-II supertransient by an exponential increase of transient lifetimes with the system size in 2D and an investigation of the dynamics (number and lifetime of spiral waves, Kaplan-Yorke dimension). In 3D, simulations exhibit an increase of transient lifetimes and filament lengths only above a critical thickness. Finally, potential implications for understanding cardiac arrhythmias are discussed.

Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, J.

2017-12-01

Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

Initial Examination of the Long Term Thermosphere Changes As Seen in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model - eXtended (WACCM-X) J. M. McInerney, L. Qian, and H.-L Liu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInerney, J. M.; Qian, L.; Liu, H.

2013-12-01

It has been over two decades since the projection that, not only will the human induced increase in atmospheric CO2 produce a warming in the troposphere, it will also produce a cooling in the middle to upper atmosphere into the 21st century with significant consequences. The thermospheric density decrease associated with this projected upper atmosphere cooling due to greenhouse gases has been confirmed by observations, in particular satellite drag measurements, and by various modeling studies. Recent studies also suggest potential impacts from the lower atmosphere on thermosphere dynamics such as atmospheric thermal tides and gravity waves. With the current advance of whole atmosphere climate models which extend from the ground through the thermosphere, it is now possible to include effects of these and other lower atmosphere processes in modeling studies of long term thermospheric changes. One such whole atmosphere model under development at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model - eXtended (WACCM-X). WACCM-X is a self consistent climate model extending from the ground to approximately 500 kilometers and is based on the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) / Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Although an interactive ionosphere module is not complete, the globally averaged structure of thermosphere temperature and neutral species from WACCM-X are reasonable compared with the NCAR global mean model. In this study, we will examine a transient WACCM-X simulation from 1955 to 2005 with realistic tropospheric CO2 input and solar and geomagnetic forcing. The preliminary study will focus on the long term changes in the thermosphere from this simulation, in particular the secular changes of thermosphere neutral density and temperature due to anthropogenic forcing.

Characterization and Simulation of Transient Vibrations Using Band Limited Temporal Moments

DOE PAGES

Smallwood, David O.

1994-01-01

A method is described to characterize shocks (transient time histories) in terms of the Fourier energy spectrum and the temporal moments of the shock passed through a contiguous set of band pass filters. The product model is then used to generate of a random process as simulations that in the mean will have the same energy and moments as the characterization of the transient event.

Calculating transient rates from surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbone, D.; van der Horst, A. J.; Wijers, R. A. M. J.; Rowlinson, A.

2017-03-01

We have developed a method to determine the transient surface density and transient rate for any given survey, using Monte Carlo simulations. This method allows us to determine the transient rate as a function of both the flux and the duration of the transients in the whole flux-duration plane rather than one or a few points as currently available methods do. It is applicable to every survey strategy that is monitoring the same part of the sky, regardless the instrument or wavelength of the survey, or the target sources. We have simulated both top-hat and Fast Rise Exponential Decay light curves, highlighting how the shape of the light curve might affect the detectability of transients. Another application for this method is to estimate the number of transients of a given kind that are expected to be detected by a survey, provided that their rate is known.

New technique for simulation of optical fiber amplifiers control schemes in dynamic WDM systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, Marcio; Klein, Jackson; Givigi, Sidney, Jr.; Calmon, Luiz C.

2005-04-01

One topic that has attracted attention is related to the behavior of the optical amplifiers under dynamic conditions, specifically because amplifiers working in a saturated condition produce power transients in all-optical reconfigurable WDM networks, e.g. adding/dropping channels. The goal of this work is to introduce the multiwavelength time-driven simulations technique, capable of simulation and analysis of transient effects in all-optical WDM networks with optical amplifiers, and allow the use of control schemes to avoid or minimize the impacts of transient effects in the system performance.

Planned updates and refinements to the central valley hydrologic model, with an emphasis on improving the simulation of land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, C.C.; Hanson, R.T.; Martin, P.; Schmid, W.

2011-01-01

California's Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world for more than 50 years. To better understand the groundwater availability in the valley, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed the Central Valley hydrologic model (CVHM). Because of recent water-level declines and renewed subsidence, the CVHM is being updated to better simulate the geohydrologic system. The CVHM updates and refinements can be grouped into two general categories: (1) model code changes and (2) data updates. The CVHM updates and refinements will require that the model be recalibrated. The updated CVHM will provide a detailed transient analysis of changes in groundwater availability and flow paths in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, stream flow, and changes in irrigated agricultural practices and crops. The updated CVHM is particularly focused on more accurately simulating the locations and magnitudes of land subsidence. The intent of the updated CVHM is to help scientists better understand the availability and sustainability of water resources and the interaction of groundwater levels with land subsidence. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Planned updates and refinements to the Central Valley hydrologic model with an emphasis on improving the simulation of land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia C.; Hanson, Randall T.; Martin, Peter; Schmid, Wolfgang

2011-01-01

California's Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world for more than 50 years. To better understand the groundwater availability in the valley, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed the Central Valley hydrologic model (CVHM). Because of recent water-level declines and renewed subsidence, the CVHM is being updated to better simulate the geohydrologic system. The CVHM updates and refinements can be grouped into two general categories: (1) model code changes and (2) data updates. The CVHM updates and refinements will require that the model be recalibrated. The updated CVHM will provide a detailed transient analysis of changes in groundwater availability and flow paths in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, stream flow, and changes in irrigated agricultural practices and crops. The updated CVHM is particularly focused on more accurately simulating the locations and magnitudes of land subsidence. The intent of the updated CVHM is to help scientists better understand the availability and sustainability of water resources and the interaction of groundwater levels with land subsidence.

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE PAGES

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...

2014-12-02

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Analytic Perturbation Method for Estimating Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, William; Solakiewicz, Richard

2013-01-01

An analytic perturbation method is introduced for estimating the lightning ground flash fraction in a set of N lightning flashes observed by a satellite lightning mapper. The value of N is large, typically in the thousands, and the observations consist of the maximum optical group area produced by each flash. The method is tested using simulated observations that are based on Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data. National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) data is used to determine the flash-type (ground or cloud) of the satellite-observed flashes, and provides the ground flash fraction truth for the simulation runs. It is found that the mean ground flash fraction retrieval errors are below 0.04 across the full range 0-1 under certain simulation conditions. In general, it is demonstrated that the retrieval errors depend on many factors (i.e., the number, N, of satellite observations, the magnitude of random and systematic measurement errors, and the number of samples used to form certain climate distributions employed in the model).

Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum—Crossing a Thermal Threshold in Earth's Climate System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhold, T.; Röhl, U.; Donner, B.; Frederichs, T.; Kordesch, W. E. C.; Bohaty, S. M.; Hodell, D. A.; Laskar, J.; Zeebe, R. E.

2018-01-01

Recognizing and deciphering transient global warming events triggered by massive release of carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere climate system in the past are important for understanding climate under elevated pCO2 conditions. Here we present new high-resolution geochemical records including benthic foraminiferal stable isotope data with clear evidence of a short-lived (30 kyr) warming event at 41.52 Ma. The event occurs in the late Lutetian within magnetochron C19r and is characterized by a ˜2°C warming of the deep ocean in the southern South Atlantic. The magnitudes of the carbon and oxygen isotope excursions of the Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum are comparable to the H2 event (53.6 Ma) suggesting a similar response of the climate system to carbon cycle perturbations even in an already relatively cooler climate several million years after the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. Coincidence of the event with exceptionally high insolation values in the Northern Hemisphere at 41.52 Ma might indicate that Earth's climate system has a thermal threshold. When this tipping point is crossed, rapid positive feedback mechanisms potentially trigger transient global warming. The orbital configuration in this case could have caused prolonged warm and dry season leading to a massive release of terrestrial carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system initiating environmental change.

Holocene biome shifts in the East Asian monsoon margin region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Ni, Jian; Wang, Yongbo; Cao, Xianyong; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2013-04-01

East Asia is affected by three major atmospheric circulation systems determining the regional climate and vegetation distribution: The moisture advected by the Indian and East Asian monsoon support the growing of forest in large parts of Eastern China. The influence of the monsoon gets weaker further on the continent yielding a transition of forest to steppe and of steppe to desert in Central East Asia (e.g. Inner Mongolia) where the dry westerly winds prevail. Particularly in these transition zones, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change and strong feedbacks are expected in case of climate and vegetation shifts due to large environmental changes (Feng et al., 2006). During mid-Holocene, cyclic variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun led to an enhancement of the Asian monsoon system probably causing strong shifts in the biome distribution. According to reconstructions, the steppe-forest margin moved to the northwest by about 500km (Yu et al., 2000) and the desert area in China and Inner Mongolia was substantially reduced compared to today (Feng et al., 2006). However, in the complex environment of Asia, the locally limited reconstructions may not portray the general vegetation change. To get a systematic overview on the spatial pattern of biome shifts in the Asian monsoon - westerly wind transition zone since mid-Holocene, we use the diagnostic vegetation model BIOME4 and force this model with climate anomalies from different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation models. The main aims of this study are to a) get a consistent ensemble of possible changes in biome distribution since the mid-Holocene b) test the robustness of the simulated vegetation changes and quantify the differences between the models, and c) allow for a better comparison of simulated and reconstructed vegetation changes. Preliminary results confirm the general trend seen in the reconstructions. The simulations reveal an expansion of forest for most models and a substantially reduced desert fraction in the transition zone during mid-Holocene. However, the amplitude of the signal and the trend varies for the different climate models. At mid-Holocene, the desert-steppe margin is located further west by approx. 6° in the ensemble mean ranging from 1° to 10° in the different simulations. The forest biomes extend further north-westward by approx. 2° in the ensemble mean ranging from 0° to 4°. In some simulations, the biome distribution shows a strong variability during the last 6000 years and a strong increase of desert starting 500 years before present. In other simulations the biome distribution stays relatively constant until 4500 years before present, afterwards the desert border gradually moves eastward to its present-day position. References: Feng, Z.-D., An, C.B., and Wang, H.B.: Holocene climatic and environmental changes in the arid and semi-arid areas of China: a review. The Holocene 16(1), 119-130, 2006. Yu, G., Chen, X., Ni, J., Cheddadi, R., Guiot, J., Han, H., Harrison, S.P., Huang, C., Ke, M., Kong, Z., Li, S., Li, W., Liew, P., Liu, G., Liu, J., Liu, Q., Liu, K.-B., Prentice, I.C., Qui, W., Ren, G., Song, C., Sugita, S., Sun, X., Tang, L., Van Campo, E., Xia, Y., Xu, Q., Yan, S., Yang, X., Zhao, J., and Zheng, Z.: Palaeovegetation of China: a pollen date-based synthesis for the mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum. J. Biogeogr., 27, 635-664, 2000.

Science and policy applicability of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.

2014-12-01

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) provides a quantification of the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions of carbon and global-mean temperature increase. For its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases its assessment on a large body of literature which encompasses multiple lines of evidence. In this session I will look at the literature basis that was available for TCRE at the time of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, providing an easy-to-access introduction into the TCRE concept. Building on this basis and summarizing my own recent work on this, I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the use of TCRE for climate policy. While the TCRE concept provides a clear long-term view of what is required to stabilize global-mean temperature increase, I will explore how TCRE uncertainties might pose problems for using TCRE as the only policy guidance in near-term policy decisions.

On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, Ales; Ball, William T.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr; Peter, Thomas

2017-09-01

The double-peaked response of the tropical stratospheric temperature profile to the 11 year solar cycle (SC) has been well documented. However, there are concerns about the origin of the lower peak due to potential aliasing with volcanic eruptions or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) detected using multiple linear regression analysis. We confirm the aliasing using the results of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3 obtained in the framework of the International Global Atmospheric Chemisty/Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1. We further show that even without major volcanic eruptions included in transient simulations, the lower stratospheric response exhibits a residual peak when historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)/sea ice coverage (SIC) are used. Only the use of climatological SSTs/SICs in addition to background stratospheric aerosols removes volcanic and ENSO signals and results in an almost complete disappearance of the modeled solar signal in the lower stratospheric temperature. We demonstrate that the choice of temporal subperiod considered for the regression analysis has a large impact on the estimated profile signal in the lower stratosphere: at least 45 consecutive years are needed to avoid the large aliasing effect of SC maxima with volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 in historical simulations, reanalyses, and observations. The application of volcanic forcing compiled for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the CCM SOCOLv3 reduces the warming overestimation in the tropical lower stratosphere and the volcanic aliasing of the temperature response to the SC, although it does not eliminate it completely.

Aridity under conditions of increased CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Roderick, Micheal L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-04-01

A string of recent of studies led to the wide-held assumption that aridity will increase under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming. Such results generally build upon analyses of changes in the 'aridity index' (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) and can be described as a direct thermodynamic effect on atmospheric water demand due to increasing temperatures. However, there is widespread evidence that contradicts the 'warmer is more arid' interpretation, leading to the 'global aridity paradox' (Roderick et al. 2015, WRR). Here we provide a comprehensive assessment of modeled changes in a broad set of dryness metrics (primarily based on a range of measures of water availability) over a large range of realistic atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We use an ensemble of simulations from of state-of-the-art climate models to analyse both equilibrium climate experiments and transient historical simulations and future projections. Our results show that dryness is, under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, generally decreasing at global scales. At regional scales we do, however, identify areas that undergo changes towards drier conditions, located primarily in subtropical climate regions and the Amazon Basin. Nonetheless, the majority of regions, especially in tropical and mid- to northern high latitudes areas, display wetting conditions in a warming world. Our results contradict previous findings and highlight the need to comprehensively assess all aspects of changes in hydroclimatological conditions at the land surface. Roderick, M. L., P. Greve, and G. D. Farquhar (2015), On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5450-5463

Easy Volcanic Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toohey, Matthew; Stevens, Bjorn; Schmidt, Hauke; Timmreck, Claudia

2016-04-01

Radiative forcing by stratospheric sulfate aerosol of volcanic origin is one of the strongest drivers of natural climate variability. Transient model simulations attempting to match observed climate variability, such as the CMIP historical simulations, rely on volcanic forcing reconstructions based on observations of a small sample of recent eruptions and coarse proxy data for eruptions before the satellite era. Volcanic forcing data sets used in CMIP5 were provided either in terms of optical properties, or in terms of sulfate aerosol mass, leading to significant inter-model spread in the actual volcanic radiative forcing produced by models and in their resulting climate responses. It remains therefore unclear to what degree inter-model spread in response to volcanic forcing represents model differences or variations in the forcing. In order to isolate model differences, Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) provides an analytic representation of volcanic stratospheric aerosol forcing, based on available observations and aerosol model results, prescribing the aerosol's radiative properties and primary modes of spatial and temporal variability. In contrast to regriddings of observational data, EVA allows for the production of physically consistent forcing for historic and hypothetical eruptions of varying magnitude, source latitude, and season. Within CMIP6, EVA will be used to reconstruct volcanic forcing over the past 2000 years for use in the Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), and will provide forcing sets for VolMIP experiments aiming to quantify model uncertainty in the response to volcanic forcing. Here, the functional form of EVA will be introduced, along with illustrative examples including the EVA-based reconstruction of volcanic forcing over the historical period, and that of the 1815 Tambora eruption.

Hydro turbine governor’s power control of hydroelectric unit with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Liang; Wu, Changli; Tang, Weiping

2018-02-01

The primary frequency regulation and load regulation transient process when the hydro turbine governor is under the power mode of hydropower unit with sloping ceiling tailrace are analysed by field test and numerical simulation in this paper. A simulation method based on “three-zone model” to simulate small fluctuation transient process of the sloping ceiling tailrace is proposed. The simulation model of hydraulic turbine governor power mode is established by governor’s PLC program identification and parameter measurement, and the simulation model is verified by the test. The slow-fast-slow “three-stage regulation” method which can improve the dynamic quality of hydro turbine governor power mode is proposed. The power regulation strategy and parameters are optimized by numerical simulation, the performance of primary frequency regulation and load regulation transient process when the hydro turbine governor is under power mode are improved significantly.

New Automotive Air Conditioning System Simulation Tool Developed in MATLAB/Simulink

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiss, T.; Chaney, L.; Meyer, J.

Further improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency require accurate evaluation of the vehicle's transient total power requirement. When operated, the air conditioning (A/C) system is the largest auxiliary load on a vehicle; therefore, accurate evaluation of the load it places on the vehicle's engine and/or energy storage system is especially important. Vehicle simulation software, such as 'Autonomie,' has been used by OEMs to evaluate vehicles' energy performance. A transient A/C simulation tool incorporated into vehicle simulation models would also provide a tool for developing more efficient A/C systems through a thorough consideration of the transient A/C system performance. The dynamic systemmore » simulation software Matlab/Simulink was used to develop new and more efficient vehicle energy system controls. The various modeling methods used for the new simulation tool are described in detail. Comparison with measured data is provided to demonstrate the validity of the model.« less

IPR 1.0: an efficient method for calculating solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, W.; Li, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change may alter the spatial distribution, composition, structure, and functions of plant communities. Transitional zones between biomes, or ecotones, are particularly sensitive to climate change. Ecotones are usually heterogeneous with sparse trees. The dynamics of ecotones are mainly determined by the growth and competition of individual plants in the communities. Therefore it is necessary to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants for understanding and predicting their responses to climate change. In this study, we developed an individual plant radiation model, IPR (version 1.0), to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities. The model is developed based on geometrical optical relationships assuming crowns of woody plants are rectangular boxes with uniform leaf area density. The model calculates the fractions of sunlit and shaded leaf classes and the solar radiation absorbed by each class, including direct radiation from the sun, diffuse radiation from the sky, and scattered radiation from the plant community. The solar radiation received on the ground is also calculated. We tested the model by comparing with the analytical solutions of random distributions of plants. The tests show that the model results are very close to the averages of the random distributions. This model is efficient in computation, and is suitable for ecological models to simulate long-term transient responses of plant communities to climate change.

Impact of waves on the circulation flow in the Iguasu gas centrifuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogovalov, S.; Kislov, V.; Tronin, I.

2017-01-01

2D axisymmetric transient flow induced by a pulsed braking force in the Iguasu gas centrifuge (GC) is simulated numerically. The simulation is performed for two cases: transient and stationary. The braking forces averaged over the period of rotation are equal to each other in both cases. The transient case is compared with the stationary case where the flow is excited by the stationary braking force.Two models of the gas cenrifuge is simulated. There are two cameras in the first model and three cameras in the second one. In the transient case for the two cameras model pulsations almost doubles the axial circulation flux in the working camera. In the transient case for the three cameras model the gas flux through the gap in the bottom baffle exceeds on 15 % the same flux in the stationary case for the same gas content and temperature at the walls of the rotor. We argue that the waves can reduce the gas content in the GC on the same 15 %.

The technique for Simulation of Transient Combustion Processes in the Rocket Engine Operating with Gaseous Fuel “Hydrogen and Oxygen”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubanov, V. M.; Stepanov, D. V.; Shabliy, L. S.

2017-01-01

The article describes the method for simulation of transient combustion processes in the rocket engine. The engine operates on gaseous propellant: oxygen and hydrogen. Combustion simulation was performed using the ANSYS CFX software. Three reaction mechanisms for the stationary mode were considered and described in detail. Reactions mechanisms have been taken from several sources and verified. The method for converting ozone properties from the Shomate equation to the NASA-polynomial format was described in detail. The way for obtaining quick CFD-results with intermediate combustion components using an EDM model was found. Modeling difficulties with combustion model Finite Rate Chemistry, associated with a large scatter of reference data were identified and described. The way to generate the Flamelet library with CFX-RIF is described. Formulated adequate reaction mechanisms verified at a steady state have also been tested for transient simulation. The Flamelet combustion model was recognized as adequate for the transient mode. Integral parameters variation relates to the values obtained during stationary simulation. A cyclic irregularity of the temperature field, caused by precession of the vortex core, was detected in the chamber with the proposed simulation technique. Investigations of unsteady processes of rocket engines including the processes of ignition were proposed as the area for application of the described simulation technique.

Transient flow conditions change how we should think about WHPA delineation: a joint frequency and probability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Pretelin (1), Abelardo; Nowak (1), Wolfgang

2017-04-01

Well head protection areas (WHPAs) are frequently used as safety measures for drinking water wells, preventing them from being polluted by restricting land use activities in their proximities. Two sources of uncertainty are involved during delineation: 1) uncertainty in aquifer parameters and 2) time-varying groundwater flow scenarios and their own inherent uncertainties. The former has been studied by Enzenhoefer et al (2012 [1] and 2014 [2]) as probabilistic risk version of WHPA delineation. The latter is frequently neglected and replaced by steady-state assumptions; thereby ignoring time-variant flow conditions triggered either by anthropogenic causes or climatic conditions. In this study we analyze the influence of transient flow considerations in WHPA delineation, following annual seasonality behavior; with transiency represented by four transient conditions: (I) regional groundwater flow direction, (II) strength of the regional hydraulic gradient, (III) natural recharge to the groundwater and (IV) pumping rate. Addressing WHPA delineation in transient flow scenarios is computationally expensive. Thus, we develop an efficient method using a dynamic superposition of steady-state flow solutions coupled with a reversed formulation of advective-dispersive transport based on a Lagrangian particle tracking with continuous injection. This analysis results in a time-frequency map of pixel-wise membership to the well catchment. Additional to transient flow conditions, we recognize two sources of uncertainty, inexact knowledge of transient drivers and parameters. The uncertainties are accommodated through Monte Carlo simulation. With the help of a global sensitivity analysis, we investigate the impact of transiency in WHPA solutions. In particular, we evaluate: (1) Among all considered transients, which ones are the most influential. (2) How influential in WHPA delineation is the transience-related uncertainty compared to aquifer parameter uncertainty. Literature [1] R. Enzenhoefer, W. Nowak, and R. Helmig. Probabilistic exposure risk assessment with advective-dispersive well vulnerability criteria. Advances in Water Resources, 36:121-132, 2012. [2] R. Enzenhoefer, T. Bunk, and W. Nowak. Nine steps to risk-informed wellhead protection and management: a case study. Ground water, 52:161-174, 2014.

Hazards of decreasing marine oxygen: the near-term and millennial-scale benefits of meeting the Paris climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battaglia, Gianna; Joos, Fortunat

2018-06-01

Ocean deoxygenation is recognized as key ecosystem stressor of the future ocean and associated climate-related ocean risks are relevant for current policy decisions. In particular, benefits of reaching the ambitious 1.5 °C warming target mentioned by the Paris Agreement compared to higher temperature targets are of high interest. Here, we model oceanic oxygen, warming and their compound hazard in terms of metabolic conditions on multi-millennial timescales for a range of equilibrium temperature targets. Scenarios where radiative forcing is stabilized by 2300 are used in ensemble simulations with the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Transiently, the global mean ocean oxygen concentration decreases by a few percent under low forcing and by 40 % under high forcing. Deoxygenation peaks about a thousand years after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions are established after AD 8000 in our model. Hypoxic waters expand over the next millennium and recovery is slow and remains incomplete under high forcing. Largest transient decreases in oxygen are projected for the deep sea. Distinct and near-linear relationships between the equilibrium temperature response and marine O2 loss emerge. These point to the effectiveness of the Paris climate target in reducing marine hazards and risks. Mitigation measures are projected to reduce peak decreases in oceanic oxygen inventory by 4.4 % °C-1 of avoided equilibrium warming. In the upper ocean, the decline of a metabolic index, quantified by the ratio of O2 supply to an organism's O2 demand, is reduced by 6.2 % °C-1 of avoided equilibrium warming. Definitions of peak hypoxia demonstrate strong sensitivity to additional warming. Volumes of water with less than 50 mmol O2 m-3, for instance, increase between 36 % and 76 % °C-1 of equilibrium temperature response. Our results show that millennial-scale responses should be considered in assessments of ocean deoxygenation and associated climate-related ocean risks. Peak hazards occur long after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions establish after AD 8000.

Supercontinental Cycles and the Tectonic Modulation of Earth's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jellinek, M.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Turchyn, A. V.; Lenardic, A.

2012-12-01

Plate tectonics involves the production of oceanic plates at spreading ridges, their destruction at subduction zones, where they sink into the underlying mantle as cold plumes, and a slow drift of buoyant continents at the surface. The resulting laterally and vertically extensive internal mantle motions cool the Earth efficiently and with remarkable consequences including long-lived hotspot volcanoes such as Hawaii, a persistent and strong magnetic field and a habitable climate. Over the last billion years, however, this regular mantle overturning and thorough thermal mixing has been punctuated by 2 transient periods during which the continents were drawn together to form the supercontinents Rodinia and Pangea. These supercontinents were encircled to differing extents by subduction zones where partial or complete "curtains" of cold downgoing oceanic slabs inhibited lateral mantle stirring, leading, in turn, to large temperature variations between the more rapidly cooled oceanic mantle and the more slowly cooled continental mantle. A key prediction from theory, numerical simulations and laboratory experiments is that, depending on the mantle thermal mixing efficiency, the relative cooling of the oceanic mantle during the formation of supercontinents will cause crustal production at spreading ridges to decline or cease entirely. We investigate two further provocative implications for Earth's climate during the Pangea and Rodinia supercontinental epochs. First, the total volcanic influx of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system may decline by 30-40%, probably causing a modest global cooling. Second, a near absence of basaltic crust at ridges exposes mantle rocks to seawater, which leads to extensive serpentinization and to a potentially large flux of abiogenic methane (CH4) into the deep ocean. Whereas we expect all of this CH4 to be oxidized in the oxygen-rich and biologically complex Pangean ocean, some fraction of this CH4 flux may contribute to the composition of low-oxygen Rodinian atmosphere and influence climate in remarkable ways. A particular situation we explore is whether the transient mantle dynamics of the formation and breakup of Rodinia ultimately caused Earth to enter into, and exit from, periods of global glaciation consistent with the snowball Earth hypothesis.

A Doppler Transient Model Based on the Laplace Wavelet and Spectrum Correlation Assessment for Locomotive Bearing Fault Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Shen, Changqing; Liu, Fang; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Ao; Kong, Fanrang; Tse, Peter W.

2013-01-01

The condition of locomotive bearings, which are essential components in trains, is crucial to train safety. The Doppler effect significantly distorts acoustic signals during high movement speeds, substantially increasing the difficulty of monitoring locomotive bearings online. In this study, a new Doppler transient model based on the acoustic theory and the Laplace wavelet is presented for the identification of fault-related impact intervals embedded in acoustic signals. An envelope spectrum correlation assessment is conducted between the transient model and the real fault signal in the frequency domain to optimize the model parameters. The proposed method can identify the parameters used for simulated transients (periods in simulated transients) from acoustic signals. Thus, localized bearing faults can be detected successfully based on identified parameters, particularly period intervals. The performance of the proposed method is tested on a simulated signal suffering from the Doppler effect. Besides, the proposed method is used to analyze real acoustic signals of locomotive bearings with inner race and outer race faults, respectively. The results confirm that the periods between the transients, which represent locomotive bearing fault characteristics, can be detected successfully. PMID:24253191

A Doppler transient model based on the laplace wavelet and spectrum correlation assessment for locomotive bearing fault diagnosis.

PubMed

Shen, Changqing; Liu, Fang; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Ao; Kong, Fanrang; Tse, Peter W

2013-11-18

The condition of locomotive bearings, which are essential components in trains, is crucial to train safety. The Doppler effect significantly distorts acoustic signals during high movement speeds, substantially increasing the difficulty of monitoring locomotive bearings online. In this study, a new Doppler transient model based on the acoustic theory and the Laplace wavelet is presented for the identification of fault-related impact intervals embedded in acoustic signals. An envelope spectrum correlation assessment is conducted between the transient model and the real fault signal in the frequency domain to optimize the model parameters. The proposed method can identify the parameters used for simulated transients (periods in simulated transients) from acoustic signals. Thus, localized bearing faults can be detected successfully based on identified parameters, particularly period intervals. The performance of the proposed method is tested on a simulated signal suffering from the Doppler effect. Besides, the proposed method is used to analyze real acoustic signals of locomotive bearings with inner race and outer race faults, respectively. The results confirm that the periods between the transients, which represent locomotive bearing fault characteristics, can be detected successfully.

From the Last Interglacial to the Anthropocene: Modelling a Complete Glacial Cycle (PalMod)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Latif, Mojib

2017-04-01

We will give a short overview and update on the current status of the national climate modelling initiative PalMod (Paleo Modelling, www.palmod.de). PalMod focuses on the understanding of the climate system dynamics and its variability during the last glacial cycle. The initiative is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and its specific topics are: (i) to identify and quantify the relative contributions of the fundamental processes which determined the Earth's climate trajectory and variability during the last glacial cycle, (ii) to simulate with comprehensive Earth System Models (ESMs) the climate from the peak of the last interglacial - the Eemian warm period - up to the present, including the changes in the spectrum of variability, and (iii) to assess possible future climate trajectories beyond this century during the next millennia with sophisticated ESMs tested in such a way. The research is intended to be conducted over a period of 10 years, but with shorter funding cycles. PalMod kicked off in February 2016. The first phase focuses on the last deglaciation (app. the last 23.000 years). From the ESM perspective PalMod pushes forward model development by coupling ESM with dynamical ice sheet models. Computer scientists work on speeding up climate models using different concepts (like parallelisation in time) and one working group is dedicated to perform a comprehensive data synthesis to validate model performance. The envisioned approach is innovative in three respects. First, the consortium aims at simulating a full glacial cycle in transient mode and with comprehensive ESMs which allow full interactions between the physical and biogeochemical components of the Earth system, including ice sheets. Second, we shall address climate variability during the last glacial cycle on a large range of time scales, from interannual to multi-millennial, and attempt to quantify the relative contributions of external forcing and processes internal to the Earth system to climate variability at different time scales. Third, in order to achieve a higher level of understanding of natural climate variability at time scales of millennia, its governing processes and implications for the future climate, we bring together three different research communities: the Earth system modeling community, the proxy data community and the computational science community. The consortium consists of 18 partners including all major modelling centers within Germany. The funding comprises approximately 65 PostDoc positions and more than 120 scientists are involved. PalMod is coordinated at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR).

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-01-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars' Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-04-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.;

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming and Aerosol Cooling to Reveal Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Transient radiative transfer in a scattering slab considering polarization.

PubMed

Yi, Hongliang; Ben, Xun; Tan, Heping

2013-11-04

The characteristics of the transient and polarization must be considered for a complete and correct description of short-pulse laser transfer in a scattering medium. A Monte Carlo (MC) method combined with a time shift and superposition principle is developed to simulate transient vector (polarized) radiative transfer in a scattering medium. The transient vector radiative transfer matrix (TVRTM) is defined to describe the transient polarization behavior of short-pulse laser propagating in the scattering medium. According to the definition of reflectivity, a new criterion of reflection at Fresnel surface is presented. In order to improve the computational efficiency and accuracy, a time shift and superposition principle is applied to the MC model for transient vector radiative transfer. The results for transient scalar radiative transfer and steady-state vector radiative transfer are compared with those in published literatures, respectively, and an excellent agreement between them is observed, which validates the correctness of the present model. Finally, transient radiative transfer is simulated considering the polarization effect of short-pulse laser in a scattering medium, and the distributions of Stokes vector in angular and temporal space are presented.

Technology for Transient Simulation of Vibration during Combustion Process in Rocket Thruster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubanov, V. M.; Stepanov, D. V.; Shabliy, L. S.

2018-01-01

The article describes the technology for simulation of transient combustion processes in the rocket thruster for determination of vibration frequency occurs during combustion. The engine operates on gaseous propellant: oxygen and hydrogen. Combustion simulation was performed using the ANSYS CFX software. Three reaction mechanisms for the stationary mode were considered and described in detail. The way for obtaining quick CFD-results with intermediate combustion components using an EDM model was found. The way to generate the Flamelet library with CFX-RIF was described. A technique for modeling transient combustion processes in the rocket thruster was proposed based on the Flamelet library. A cyclic irregularity of the temperature field like vortex core precession was detected in the chamber. Frequency of flame precession was obtained with the proposed simulation technique.

Full Core TREAT Kinetics Demonstration Using Rattlesnake/BISON Coupling Within MAMMOTH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortensi, Javier; DeHart, Mark D.; Gleicher, Frederick N.

2015-08-01

This report summarizes key aspects of research in evaluation of modeling needs for TREAT transient simulation. Using a measured TREAT critical measurement and a transient for a small, experimentally simplified core, Rattlesnake and MAMMOTH simulations are performed building from simple infinite media to a full core model. Cross sections processing methods are evaluated, various homogenization approaches are assessed and the neutronic behavior of the core studied to determine key modeling aspects. The simulation of the minimum critical core with the diffusion solver shows very good agreement with the reference Monte Carlo simulation and the experiment. The full core transient simulationmore » with thermal feedback shows a significantly lower power peak compared to the documented experimental measurement, which is not unexpected in the early stages of model development.« less

Application of a 3D Model to Assess the Thermo-Hydrological Effects of Climate Warming in a Discontinuous Permafrost Zone, Umiujaq, Northern Quebec, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhizkar, M.; Therrien, R.; Molson, J. W. H.; Lemieux, J. M.; Fortier, R.; Talbot Poulin, M. C.; Therrien, P.; Ouellet, M.

2016-12-01

The rate of permafrost degradation in northern Quebec, Canada, has increased over the last two decades due to climate warming, which is expected to significantly modify the hydrogeologic and thermal regimes. Groundwater accessibility is also expected to increase and could become a significant source of drinking water for northern communities. In this project, an integrated surface water / groundwater flow model, HydroGeoSphere, is being applied to a 2 km2catchment in northern Quebec to assess the effect of future climate change on thermo-hydrological conditions as well as on changes in groundwater availability for northern communities. The catchment is located in a discontinuous but widespread permafrost zone near Umiujaq (northern Quebec, Canada) where the subsurface consists of a 10-30 m-thick coarse-grained glaciofluvial layer forming a good aquifer beneath a permafrost-rich silty marine unit. A conceptual thermo-hydrological model of the catchment has been built from field data collected over 5 years, including hydraulic heads, stream flow rates, subsurface geology, as well as ground temperatures and thermal fluxes around two 10-20 m-thick permafrost mounds. The integrated 3D numerical model includes variably-saturated groundwater flow with transient recharge, as well as advective-conductive heat transport driven by transient air temperatures (varying from about -40 to +30 ºC) and a geothermal heat flux of 60 mW/m2. The model is calibrated to observed heads and temperatures by coupling PEST with HydroGeoSphere, allowing changes in hydraulic and thermal conductivities. Preliminary results are consistent with the available observed data, however non-uniqueness remains an important issue. The simulations are providing useful predictions of the permafrost thaw rate and associated changes to the hydrogeological flow system, including increased aquifer recharge following permafrost thaw.

Mars' Annular Polar Vortices and their Response to Atmospheric Dust Opacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzewich, S.; Waugh, D.; Toigo, A. D.

2016-12-01

The potential vorticity structure of the martian polar vortices is distinct from Earth's stratospheric or tropospheric vortices. Rather than exhibiting monotonically increasing potential vorticity toward the geographic pole, as on Earth, the martian fall and winter polar vortices are annular with the potential vorticity maximum situated off the pole and a local minimum in potential vorticity at the pole. Using the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM), we perform a series of simulations to examine the source of this annular structure. We find that latent heat exchange from the formation of CO2 ice aerosols within the vortex, in a region very near the geographic pole, destroys potential vorticity and creates the annular structure. Furthermore, we describe Mars Climate Sounder and Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations of "transient vortex warming" events, where the air inside the northern hemisphere winter polar vortex is briefly warmed. During the Mars Year 28 (2007) global dust storm, the temperature inside the vortex increased by 70 K and dust directly entered the vortex. Using additional GCM simulations, we diagnose the dynamical changes associated with these transient vortex warming events and find that poleward expansion of the descending branch of the meridional overturning circulation during periods of increased dust opacity disrupts the northern hemisphere winter polar vortex. These increased temperatures also suppress CO2 condensation at the pole, creating a more Earth-like polar vortex where potential vorticity is maximized near the geographic pole.

Using a Very Large Ensemble to Examine the Role of the Ocean in Recent Warming Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, S. N.; Millar, R.; Otto, A.; Yamazaki, K.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Results from a very large (~10,000 member) perturbed physics and perturbed initial condition ensemble are presented for the period 1980 to present. A set of model versions that can shadow recent surface and upper ocean observations are identified and the range of uncertainty in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) assessed. This experiment uses the Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), a coupled model with fully dynamic atmosphere and ocean components as part of the climateprediction.net distributive computing project. Parameters are selected so that the model has good top of atmosphere radiative balance and simulations are run without flux adjustments that "nudge" the climate towards a realistic state, but have an adverse effect on important ocean processes. This ensemble provides scientific insights on the possible role of the AMOC, among other factors, in climate trends, or lack thereof, over the past 20 years. This ensemble is also used to explore how the occurrence of hiatus events of different durations varies for models with different transient climate response (TCR). We show that models with a higher TCR are less likely to produce a 15-year warming hiatus in global surface temperature than those with a lower TCR.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staten, Paul; Reichler, Thomas; Lu, Jian

Tropospheric circulation shifts have strong potential to impact surface climate. But the magnitude of these shifts in a changing climate, and the attending regional hydrological changes, are difficult to project. Part of this difficulty arises from our lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the circulation shifts themselves. In order to better delineate circulation shifts and their respective causes, we decompose the circulation response into (1) the "direct" response to radiative forcings themselves, and (2) the "indirect" response to changing sea surface temperatures. Using ensembles of 90-day climate model simulations with immediate switch-on forcings, including perturbed greenhouse gas concentrations,more » stratospheric ozone concentrations, and sea surface temperatures, we document the direct and indirect transient responses of the zonal mean general circulation, and investigate the roles of previously proposed mechanisms in shifting the midlatitude jet. We find that both the direct and indirect wind responses often begin in the lower stratosphere. Changes in midlatitude eddies are ubiquitous and synchronous with the midlatitude zonal wind response. Shifts in the critical latitude of wave absorption on either flank of the jet are not indicted as primary factors for the poleward shifting jet, although we see some evidence for increasing equatorward wave reflection over the southern hemisphere in response to sea surface warming. Mechanisms for the northern hemisphere jet shift are less clear.« less

TREAT Modeling and Simulation Strategy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeHart, Mark David

2015-09-01

This report summarizes a four-phase process used to describe the strategy in developing modeling and simulation software for the Transient Reactor Test Facility. The four phases of this research and development task are identified as (1) full core transient calculations with feedback, (2) experiment modeling, (3) full core plus experiment simulation and (4) quality assurance. The document describes the four phases, the relationship between these research phases, and anticipated needs within each phase.

Temperature-driven groundwater convection in cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Maria; Nordell, Bo

2016-08-01

The aim was to study density-driven groundwater flow and analyse groundwater mixing because of seasonal changes in groundwater temperature. Here, density-driven convection in groundwater was studied by numerical simulations in a subarctic climate, i.e. where the water temperature was <4 °C. The effects of soil permeability and groundwater temperature (i.e. viscosity and density) were determined. The influence of impermeable obstacles in otherwise homogeneous ground was also studied. An initial disturbance in the form of a horizontal groundwater flow was necessary to start the convection. Transient solutions describe the development of convective cells in the groundwater and it took 22 days before fully developed convection patterns were formed. The thermal convection reached a maximum depth of 1.0 m in soil of low permeability (2.71 · 10-9 m2). At groundwater temperature close to its density maximum (4 °C), the physical size (in m) of the convection cells was reduced. Small stones or frost lenses in the ground slightly affect the convective flow, while larger obstacles change the size and shape of the convection cells. Performed simulations show that "seasonal groundwater turnover" occurs. This knowledge may be useful in the prevention of nutrient leakage to underlying groundwater from soils, especially in agricultural areas where no natural vertical groundwater flow is evident. An application in northern Sweden is discussed.

Timing of the southward retreat of the ITCZ at the end of the Holocene Humid Period in Southern Arabia: Data-model comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lézine, Anne-Marie; Ivory, Sarah J.; Braconnot, Pascale; Marti, Olivier

2017-05-01

New pollen data from Omani mangroves (Kwar-al-Jaramah [22.49° N - 59.76° E] and Filim [20.61° N - 58.17° E]), in addition to previously published paleohydrological records from Southern Arabia improve our understanding of the timing and amplitude of the southward retreat of the Indian monsoon influence in Southern Arabia along a north-south transect. Comparison with simulations performed with the IPSL climate model, considering both snapshot experiments and transient simulations from 6000 cal yr BP to the present, confirm the latitudinally time-transgressive nature of the humid-arid transition at the end of the Holocene Humid Period. This occurred in two steps, respectively dated at around 5000 and 2700 cal yr BP. At around 5000 cal yr BP, the southward ITCZ shift was orbitally-driven and led to the abrupt aridification at Kwar-al-Jaramah and the progressive increase of dryness at Filim as the mean position of the ITCZ was centered ca 22.30°N. At 2700 cal yr BP, aridity was fully in place over all of southern Arabia due to increased climate variability. More intense rainy events during the last millennium, however, may have contributed to the discrete hydrological improvement without any impact on the regional vegetation which has remained desert to the present day.

Simulation of regional ground-water flow in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.

2004-01-01

This report describes a numerical model that simulates regional ground-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon. Ground water and surface water are intimately connected in the upper Deschutes Basin and most of the flow of the Deschutes River is supplied by ground water. Because of this connection, ground-water pumping and reduction of artificial recharge by lining leaking irrigation canals can reduce the amount of ground water discharging to streams and, consequently, streamflow. The model described in this report is intended to help water-management agencies and the public evaluate how the regional ground-water system and streamflow will respond to ground-water pumping, canal lining, drought, and other stresses. Ground-water flow is simulated in the model by the finite-difference method using MODFLOW and MODFLOWP. The finite-difference grid consists of 8 layers, 127 rows, and 87 columns. All major streams and most principal tributaries in the upper Deschutes Basin are included. Ground-water recharge from precipitation was estimated using a daily water-balance approach. Artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals and on-farm losses was estimated from diversion and delivery records, seepage studies, and crop data. Ground-water pumpage for irrigation and public water supplies, and evapotranspiration are also included in the model. The model was calibrated to mean annual (1993-95) steady-state conditions using parameter-estimation techniques employing nonlinear regression. Fourteen hydraulic-conductivity parameters and two vertical conductance parameters were determined using nonlinear regression. Final parameter values are all within expected ranges. The general shape and slope of the simulated water-table surface and overall hydraulic-head distribution match the geometry determined from field measurements. The fitted standard deviation for hydraulic head is about 76 feet. The general magnitude and distribution of ground-water discharge to streams is also well simulated throughout the model. Ground-water discharge to streams in the area of the confluence of the Deschutes, Crooked, and Metolius Rivers is closely matched. The model was also calibrated to transient conditions from 1978 to 1997 using traditional trial-and-error methods. Climatic cycles during this period provided an excellent regional hydrologic signal for calibration. Climate-driven water-level fluctuations are simulated with reasonable accuracy over most of the model area. The timing and magnitude of simulated water-level fluctuations caused by annual pulses of recharge from precipitation match those observed reasonably well, given the limitations of the time discretization in the model. Water-level fluctuations caused by annual canal leakage are simulated very well over most of the area where such fluctuations occur. The transient model also simulates the volumetric distribution and temporal variations in ground-water discharge reasonably well. The match between simulated and measured volume of and variations in ground-water discharge is, however, somewhat dependent on geographic scale. The rates of and variations in ground-water discharge are matched best at regional scales. Example simulations were made to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating the effects of ground-water pumping or canal lining. Pumping simulations show that pumped water comes largely from aquifer storage when pumping begins, but as the water table stabilizes, the pumping increasingly diminishes the discharge to streams and, hence, streamflow. The time it takes for pumping to affect streamflow varies spatially depending, in general, on the location of pumping relative to the discharge areas. Canal-lining simulations show similar effects.

An Introduction to System-Level, Steady-State and Transient Modeling and Optimization of High-Power-Density Thermoelectric Generator Devices Made of Segmented Thermoelectric Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crane, D. T.

2011-05-01

High-power-density, segmented, thermoelectric (TE) elements have been intimately integrated into heat exchangers, eliminating many of the loss mechanisms of conventional TE assemblies, including the ceramic electrical isolation layer. Numerical models comprising simultaneously solved, nonlinear, energy balance equations have been created to simulate these novel architectures. Both steady-state and transient models have been created in a MATLAB/Simulink environment. The models predict data from experiments in various configurations and applications over a broad range of temperature, flow, and current conditions for power produced, efficiency, and a variety of other important outputs. Using the validated models, devices and systems are optimized using advanced multiparameter optimization techniques. Devices optimized for particular steady-state operating conditions can then be dynamically simulated in a transient operating model. The transient model can simulate a variety of operating conditions including automotive and truck drive cycles.

Transient simulation of hydropower station with consideration of three-dimensional unsteady flow in turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W. D.; Fan, H. G.; Chen, N. X.

2012-11-01

To study the interaction between the transient flow in pipe and the unsteady turbulent flow in turbine, a coupled model of the transient flow in the pipe and three-dimensional unsteady flow in the turbine is developed based on the method of characteristics and the fluid governing equation in the accelerated rotational relative coordinate. The load-rejection process under the closing of guide vanes of the hydraulic power plant is simulated by the coupled method, the traditional transient simulation method and traditional three-dimensional unsteady flow calculation method respectively and the results are compared. The pressure, unit flux and rotation speed calculated by three methods show a similar change trend. However, because the elastic water hammer in the pipe and the pressure fluctuation in the turbine have been considered in the coupled method, the increase of pressure at spiral inlet is higher and the pressure fluctuation in turbine is stronger.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

Consequences of simulating terrestrial N dynamics for projecting future terrestrial C storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaehle, S.; Friend, A. D.; Friedlingstein, P.

2009-04-01

We present results of a new land surface model, O-CN, which includes a process-based coupling between the terrestrial cycling of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen. The model represents the controls of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling on carbon (C) pools and fluxes through photosynthesis, respiration, changes in allocation patterns, as well as soil organic matter decomposition, and explicitly accounts for N leaching and gaseous losses. O-CN has been shown to give realistic results in comparison to observations at a wide range of scales, including in situ flux measurements, productivity databases, and atmospheric CO2 concentration data. Notably, O-CN simulates realistic responses of net primary productivity, foliage area, and foliage N content to elevated atmospheric [CO2] as evidenced at free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke, Oak Ridge). We re-examine earlier model-based assessments of the terrestrial C sequestration potential using a global transient O-CN simulation driven by increases in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition and climatic changes over the 21st century. We find that accounting for terrestrial N cycling about halves the potential to store C in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations; mainly due to a reduction of the net C uptake in temperate and boreal forests. Nitrogen deposition partially alleviates the effect of N limitation, but is by far not sufficient to compensate for the effect completely. These findings underline the importance of an accurate representation of nutrient limitations in future projections of the terrestrial net CO2 exchanges and therefore land-climate feedback studies.

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE PAGES

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.; ...

2016-08-23

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

Reconstruction of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics in a fully coupled Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Huybrechts, Philippe

2016-04-01

Earth system models (ESMs) are undoubtedly effective tools for studying climate dynamics. Incorporation of evolving ice sheets to ESMs is a challenging task because response times of the climate system and of ice sheets differ by several orders of magnitude. Besides, AO GCMs operate on spatial and temporal resolutions substantially differing from those of ice sheet models (ICMs). Therefore elaboration of an effective coupling methodology of an AO GCM and an ICM is the key problem of an ESM construction and utilization. Several downscaling strategies of varying complexity exist now of data exchange between modeled climate system and ice sheets. Application of a particular strategy depends on the research objectives. In our view, the optimum approach for model studying of significant environmental changes (e.g. glacial/interglacial transitions) when ice sheets undergo substantial evolution of geometry and volume would be an asynchronous coupling. The latter allows simulation in the interactive way of growth and decay of ice sheets in the changing climatic conditions. In the focus of the presentation, is the overview of coupling aspects of an AO GCM INMCM32 elaborated in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) to the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). To provide interactive coupling of INMCM32 (spatial resolution 5°×4°, 21 vertical layers and temporal resolution 6 min. in the atmospheric block) and GrISM (spatial resolution 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution), we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between INMCM32 and GrISM. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland. Transfer of daily meanings of simulated climatic variables (air surface temperature and specific humidity) is provided on the lateral boundarias of the domain and inside the domain (sea level air pressure, wind speed and total cloudiness) after applying spline interpolation. EWBM-G calculates annual surface mass balance, SMB, (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM32). After receiving SMB, GrIS is integrated and returns update surface topography back to the INMCM32. The aim of the current research is to establish equilibration time of climate and GrIS in the transient coupled run and to elaborate optimum methodology for performing numerical experiments simulating glacial/interglacial transitions.

The effect of flexural isostasy on the response time of orogenic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, J.; Margirier, A.; Guerit, L.

2017-12-01

The concept of orogenic steady-state implies that mountain belts can reach a dynamic balance between uplift and erosion in order to maintain a quasi-constant shape. The final morphology of the mountain will be a function of the relative efficiency between uplift and erosion and is therefore likely to be modulated by climate. However, reaching such a steady-state cannot be instantaneous and there must exist a time lag between the onset of convergence and the full development of the mountain topography. Similarly, when an orogenic system is subject to a marked change in convergence rate or in climatic conditions, it takes a certain time for it to adapt to such a change and develop a new steady-state morphology. It is during these transient phases that the nature and efficiency of the interactions between tectonics and climate are most likely to be constrained by observations and understood. The duration of this transient stage remains, however, poorly constrained and understood. As shown by many authors (Whipple and Tucker, 1999, for example) the rate at which tectonic systems evolve to reach steady-state is likely controlled by climate and rock strength, which both determine the efficiency of erosional processes, and the rate of uplift. Here we show that isostasy also plays a very important role in determining the length of the transient phase and that, depending on the level of isostatic adjustment, which in turn depends on the flexural strength of the underlying lithosphere, isostasy can change the time it takes for an orogenic system to reach steady-state by an order of magnitude, i.,e. from a few millions to a few tens of millions of years. This has very important implications. It may explain why many young orogenic systems display an increase in uplift and erosion rate millions of years after the onset of collision and that, in these situations, such an increase does not require a steady change in tectonic and/or climate conditions/forcing. We also show that this "isostatic buffering" of orogenic response to abrupt changes in tectonic or climatic perturbations can not only lengthen the duration of the transient period, but also dampen the amplitude of the resulting erosional flux. This makes it sometimes difficult to extract the signature of these events from the sedimentary record.

Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

PubMed

Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

2008-11-13

Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

A guide for using the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blainey, Joan B.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Hill, Mary C.

2006-01-01

This report is a guide for executing numerical simulations with the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. Model inputs, including observations of hydraulic head, discharge, and boundary flows, are summarized. Modification of the DVRFS transient ground-water model is discussed for two common uses of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system model: predictive pumping scenarios that extend beyond the end of the model simulation period (1998), and model simulations with only steady-state conditions.

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest river to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, F.; Cuo, L.; Wu, H.; Mantua, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2009-12-01

The climate of the Pacific Northwest (PNW - which we define as the Columbia River basin and watersheds draining to the Oregon and Washington coasts) is expected to warm by approximately 0.3°C per decade in the next 100 years based on the IPCC the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) results. PNW hydrology is particularly sensitive to a warming climate because of the dominant role of snowmelt in seasonal streamflow. Timing shifts in seasonality of flows, peak discharge, and base flows will impact water resource management, regional electrical energy production, and freshwater ecosystems. In this work we update previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology using a macroscale hydrology model driven by simulations of temperature and precipitation downscaled from runs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A1B) in the 21st century. The hydrology model is implemented at 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the entire PNW. A (statistical) bias-correction and spatial disaggregation downscaling approach is used for translating the transient monthly climate model output into continuous daily forcings for the hydrologic analysis. We evaluate projected changes in snow water equivalent, seasonal streamflow, and frequency of peak low flows over a set of case study watersheds in the region. We also compare these hydrologic projections with previous analysis based on delta downscaling method over the PNW. This research is part of a project investigating climate change impacts on the future of wild Pacific salmon, and is a pilot effort to investigate the hydrologic sensitivity of salmon bearing watersheds around the entire North Pacific Rim.

The response of European and Asian climate to global and regional aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Laura; Dunstone, Nick; Highwood, Eleanor; Bollasina, Massimo; Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan

2017-04-01

Asia has the world's highest anthropogenic aerosol loading and has experienced a dramatic increase in emissions since the 1950s, which has continued in the 21st century, in stark contrast with European (and North American) emissions which started to decrease in the 1970s. We use a set of transient coupled model experiments (HadGEM2-GC2) to explore the regional climate effects of anthropogenic aerosol changes since the 1980s, with a focus on the European and Asian responses. Comparing simulations with globally varying aerosol emissions to an equivalent set with Asian emissions fixed at their 1971-1980 mean over Asia, we identify the contribution of Asian emissions to the total impact. Identifying thermodynamic and dynamic responses to global and regional aerosol changes, we diagnose atmospheric teleconnections and their interactions with local processes, and the mechanisms by which aerosol affects both European and Asian climate. It is found that Asian aerosols led to substantial changes in Asian climate, weakening the summer monsoon, which is a key driver of the observed precipitation changes there in recent decades. Asian emissions are also able to induce planetary-scale teleconnection patterns in both winter and summer. The impact of the regional diabatic heating anomaly propagates remotely by exciting northern hemisphere wave-trains which, enhanced by regional feedbacks, cause changes in near-surface climate over Europe. To examine the robustness of the mechanisms we identify in HadGEM2, we analyse similar sets of experiments from NorESM1-M and GFDL-CM3: models with very different climatologies and representations of aerosol processes.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

Research on numerical simulation and protection of transient process in long-distance slurry transportation pipelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, G.; Jiang, J.; Li, D. D.; Yi, W. S.; Zhao, Z.; Nie, L. N.

2013-12-01

The calculation of water-hammer pressure phenomenon of single-phase liquid is already more mature for a pipeline of uniform characteristics, but less research has addressed the calculation of slurry water hammer pressure in complex pipelines with slurry flows carrying solid particles. In this paper, based on the developments of slurry pipelines at home and abroad, the fundamental principle and method of numerical simulation of transient processes are presented, and several boundary conditions are given. Through the numerical simulation and analysis of transient processes of a practical engineering of long-distance slurry transportation pipeline system, effective protection measures and operating suggestions are presented. A model for calculating the water impact of solid and fluid phases is established based on a practical engineering of long-distance slurry pipeline transportation system. After performing a numerical simulation of the transient process, analyzing and comparing the results, effective protection measures and operating advice are recommended, which has guiding significance to the design and operating management of practical engineering of longdistance slurry pipeline transportation system.

Multi-Physics Simulation of TREAT Kinetics using MAMMOTH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeHart, Mark; Gleicher, Frederick; Ortensi, Javier

With the advent of next generation reactor systems and new fuel designs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has identified the need for the resumption of transient testing of nuclear fuels. DOE has decided that the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is best suited for future testing. TREAT is a thermal neutron spectrum nuclear test facility that is designed to test nuclear fuels in transient scenarios. These specific fuels transient tests range from simple temperature transients to full fuel melt accidents. The current TREAT core is driven by highly enriched uranium (HEU) dispersed in amore » graphite matrix (1:10000 U-235/C atom ratio). At the center of the core, fuel is removed allowing for the insertion of an experimental test vehicle. TREAT’s design provides experimental flexibility and inherent safety during neutron pulsing. This safety stems from the graphite in the driver fuel having a strong negative temperature coefficient of reactivity resulting from a thermal Maxwellian shift with increased leakage, as well as graphite acting as a temperature sink. Air cooling is available, but is generally used post-transient for heat removal. DOE and INL have expressed a desire to develop a simulation capability that will accurately model the experiments before they are irradiated at the facility, with an emphasis on effective and safe operation while minimizing experimental time and cost. At INL, the Multi-physics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) has been selected as the model development framework for this work. This paper describes the results of preliminary simulations of a TREAT fuel element under transient conditions using the MOOSE-based MAMMOTH reactor physics tool.« less

A computer simulation of the transient response of a 4 cylinder Stirling engine with burner and air preheater in a vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martini, W. R.

1981-01-01

A series of computer programs are presented with full documentation which simulate the transient behavior of a modern 4 cylinder Siemens arrangement Stirling engine with burner and air preheater. Cold start, cranking, idling, acceleration through 3 gear changes and steady speed operation are simulated. Sample results and complete operating instructions are given. A full source code listing of all programs are included.

3D numerical simulation of transient processes in hydraulic turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherny, S.; Chirkov, D.; Bannikov, D.; Lapin, V.; Skorospelov, V.; Eshkunova, I.; Avdushenko, A.

2010-08-01

An approach for numerical simulation of 3D hydraulic turbine flows in transient operating regimes is presented. The method is based on a coupled solution of incompressible RANS equations, runner rotation equation, and water hammer equations. The issue of setting appropriate boundary conditions is considered in detail. As an illustration, the simulation results for runaway process are presented. The evolution of vortex structure and its effect on computed runaway traces are analyzed.

Simulating Operation of a Large Turbofan Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Frederick, Dean K.; DeCastro, Jonathan

2008-01-01

The Commercial Modular Aero- Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) is a computer program for simulating transient operation of a commercial turbofan engine that can generate as much as 90,000 lb (.0.4 MN) of thrust. It includes a power-management system that enables simulation of open- or closed-loop engine operation over a wide range of thrust levels throughout the full range of flight conditions. C-MAPSS provides the user with a set of tools for performing open- and closed-loop transient simulations and comparison of linear and non-linear models throughout its operating envelope, in an easy-to-use graphical environment.

Adaptive Time Stepping for Transient Network Flow Simulation in Rocket Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, Alok K.; Ravindran, S. S.

2017-01-01

Fluid and thermal transients found in rocket propulsion systems such as propellant feedline system is a complex process involving fast phases followed by slow phases. Therefore their time accurate computation requires use of short time step initially followed by the use of much larger time step. Yet there are instances that involve fast-slow-fast phases. In this paper, we present a feedback control based adaptive time stepping algorithm, and discuss its use in network flow simulation of fluid and thermal transients. The time step is automatically controlled during the simulation by monitoring changes in certain key variables and by feedback. In order to demonstrate the viability of time adaptivity for engineering problems, we applied it to simulate water hammer and cryogenic chill down in pipelines. Our comparison and validation demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of this adaptive strategy.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachsel, M.; Rehfeld, K.; Telford, R.; Laepple, T.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution.

Simulating intrafraction prostate motion with a random walk model.

PubMed

Pommer, Tobias; Oh, Jung Hun; Munck Af Rosenschöld, Per; Deasy, Joseph O

2017-01-01

Prostate motion during radiation therapy (ie, intrafraction motion) can cause unwanted loss of radiation dose to the prostate and increased dose to the surrounding organs at risk. A compact but general statistical description of this motion could be useful for simulation of radiation therapy delivery or margin calculations. We investigated whether prostate motion could be modeled with a random walk model. Prostate motion recorded during 548 radiation therapy fractions in 17 patients was analyzed and used for input in a random walk prostate motion model. The recorded motion was categorized on the basis of whether any transient excursions (ie, rapid prostate motion in the anterior and superior direction followed by a return) occurred in the trace and transient motion. This was separately modeled as a large step in the anterior/superior direction followed by a returning large step. Random walk simulations were conducted with and without added artificial transient motion using either motion data from all observed traces or only traces without transient excursions as model input, respectively. A general estimate of motion was derived with reasonable agreement between simulated and observed traces, especially during the first 5 minutes of the excursion-free simulations. Simulated and observed diffusion coefficients agreed within 0.03, 0.2 and 0.3 mm 2 /min in the left/right, superior/inferior, and anterior/posterior directions, respectively. A rapid increase in variance at the start of observed traces was difficult to reproduce and seemed to represent the patient's need to adjust before treatment. This could be estimated somewhat using artificial transient motion. Random walk modeling is feasible and recreated the characteristics of the observed prostate motion. Introducing artificial transient motion did not improve the overall agreement, although the first 30 seconds of the traces were better reproduced. The model provides a simple estimate of prostate motion during delivery of radiation therapy.

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayarzaguena, B.; Langematz, U.; Polvani, L. M; Abalichin, J.; Akiyoshi, H.; Klekociuk, A.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Oman, L.

2015-01-01

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Joint inversion of 3-PG using eddy-covariance and inventory plot measurements in temperate-maritime conifer forests: Uncertainty in transient carbon-balance responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hember, R. A.; Kurz, W. A.; Coops, N. C.; Black, T. A.

2010-12-01

Temperate-maritime forests of coastal British Columbia store large amounts of carbon (C) in soil, detritus, and trees. To better understand the sensitivity of these C stocks to climate variability, simulations were conducted using a hybrid version of the model, Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG), combined with algorithms from the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector - version 3 (CBM-CFS3) to account for full ecosystem C dynamics. The model was optimized based on a combination of monthly CO2 and H2O flux measurements derived from three eddy-covariance systems and multi-annual stemwood growth (Gsw) and mortality (Msw) derived from 1300 permanent sample plots by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The calibrated model serves as an unbiased estimator of stemwood C with enhanced precision over that of strictly-empirical models, minimized reliance on local prescriptions, and the flexibility to study impacts of environmental change on regional C stocks. We report the contribution of each dataset in identifying key physiological parameters and the posterior uncertainty in predictions of net ecosystem production (NEP). The calibrated model was used to spin up pre-industrial C pools and estimate the sensitivity of regional net carbon balance to a gradient of temperature changes, λ=ΔC/ΔT, during three 62-year harvest rotations, spanning 1949-2135. Simulations suggest that regional net primary production, tree mortality, and heterotrophic respiration all began increasing, while NEP began decreasing in response to warming following the 1976 shift in northeast-Pacific climate. We quantified the uncertainty of λ and how it was mediated by initial dead C, tree mortality, precipitation change, and the time horizon in which it was calculated.

Enhanced Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau Due to Double CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiao-Dong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) regional climate model (RegCM2) with time-dependent lateral meteorological fields provided by a 130-year transient increasing CO2 simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) has been used to investigate the mechanism of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP (Tibetan Plateau). From our model results, a remarkable tendency of warming increasing with elevation is found for the winter season, and elevation dependency of warming is not clearly recognized in the summer season. This simulated feature of elevation dependency of ground temperature is consistent with observations. Based on an analysis of surface energy budget, the short wave solar radiation absorbed at the surface plus downward long wave flux reaching the surface shows a strong elevation dependency, and is mostly responsible for enhanced surface warming over the TP. At lower elevations, the precipitation forced by topography is enhanced due to an increase in water vapor supply resulted from a warming in the atmosphere induced by doubling CO2. This precipitation enhancement must be associated with an increase in clouds, which results in a decline in solar flux reaching surface. At higher elevations, large snow depletion is detected in the 2xCO2run. It leads to a decrease in albedo, therefore more solar flux is absorbed at the surface. On the other hand, much more uniform increase in downward long wave flux reaching the surface is found. The combination of these effects (i.e. decrease in solar flux at lower elevations, increase in solar flux at higher elevation and more uniform increase in downward long wave flux) results in elevation dependency of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP.

Transient modelling of lacustrine regressions: two case studies from the Andean Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condom, Thomas; Coudrain, Anne; Dezetter, Alain; Brunstein, Daniel; Delclaux, François; Jean-Emmanuel, Sicart

2004-09-01

A model was developed for estimating the delay between a change in climatic conditions and the corresponding fall of water level in large lakes. The input data include: rainfall, temperature, extraterrestrial radiation and astronomical mid-month daylight hours. The model uses two empirical coefficients for computing the potential evaporation and one parameter for the soil capacity. The case studies are two subcatchments of the Altiplano (196 000 km2), in which the central low points are Lake Titicaca and a salar corresponding to the desiccation of the Tauca palaeolake. During the Holocene, the two catchments experienced a 100 m fall in water level corresponding to a decrease in water surface area of 3586 km2 and 55 000 km2, respectively. Under modern climatic conditions with a marked rainy season, the model allows simulation of water levels in good agreement with the observations: 3810 m a.s.l. for Lake Titicaca and lack of permanent wide ponds in the southern subcatchment. Simulations were carried out under different climatic conditions that might explain the Holocene fall in water level. Computed results show quite different behaviour for the two subcatchments. For the northern subcatchment, the time required for the 100 m fall in lake-level ranges between 200 and 2000 years when, compared with the present conditions, (i) the rainfall is decreased by 15% (640 mm/year), or (ii) the temperature is increased by 5.5 °C, or (iii) rainfall is distributed equally over the year. For the southern subcatchment (Tauca palaeolake), the time required for a 100 m decrease in water level ranges between 50 and 100 years. This decrease requires precipitation values lower than 330 mm/year.

Validation of mathematical model for CZ process using small-scale laboratory crystal growth furnace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergfelds, Kristaps; Sabanskis, Andrejs; Virbulis, Janis

2018-05-01

The present material is focused on the modelling of small-scale laboratory NaCl-RbCl crystal growth furnace. First steps towards fully transient simulations are taken in the form of stationary simulations that deal with the optimization of material properties to match the model to experimental conditions. For this purpose, simulation software primarily used for the modelling of industrial-scale silicon crystal growth process was successfully applied. Finally, transient simulations of the crystal growth are presented, giving a sufficient agreement to experimental results.

IPR 1.0: an efficient method for calculating solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, W.; Li, J.

2014-07-01

Climate change may alter the spatial distribution, composition, structure and functions of plant communities. Transitional zones between biomes, or ecotones, are particularly sensitive to climate change. Ecotones are usually heterogeneous with sparse trees. The dynamics of ecotones are mainly determined by the growth and competition of individual plants in the communities. Therefore it is necessary to calculate the solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in order to understand and predict their responses to climate change. In this study, we developed an individual plant radiation model, IPR (version 1.0), to calculate solar radiation absorbed by individual plants in sparse heterogeneous woody plant communities. The model is developed based on geometrical optical relationships assuming that crowns of woody plants are rectangular boxes with uniform leaf area density. The model calculates the fractions of sunlit and shaded leaf classes and the solar radiation absorbed by each class, including direct radiation from the sun, diffuse radiation from the sky, and scattered radiation from the plant community. The solar radiation received on the ground is also calculated. We tested the model by comparing with the results of random distribution of plants. The tests show that the model results are very close to the averages of the random distributions. This model is efficient in computation, and can be included in vegetation models to simulate long-term transient responses of plant communities to climate change. The code and a user's manual are provided as Supplement of the paper.

Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: an appraisal of adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Wilby, R L; Butterfield, D; Wade, A J

2006-07-15

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change.

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Ground-Water Flow Model of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed and Sonoran Portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Southeastern Arizona, United States, and Northern Sonora, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, D.R.; Dickinson, Jesse

2007-01-01

A numerical ground-water model was developed to simulate seasonal and long-term variations in ground-water flow in the Sierra Vista subwatershed, Arizona, United States, and Sonora, Mexico, portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin. This model includes the simulation of details of the groundwater flow system that were not simulated by previous models, such as ground-water flow in the sedimentary rocks that surround and underlie the alluvial basin deposits, withdrawals for dewatering purposes at the Tombstone mine, discharge to springs in the Huachuca Mountains, thick low-permeability intervals of silt and clay that separate the ground-water flow system into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems, ephemeral-channel recharge, and seasonal variations in ground-water discharge by wells and evapotranspiration. Steady-state and transient conditions during 1902-2003 were simulated by using a five-layer numerical ground- water flow model representing multiple hydrogeologic units. Hydraulic properties of model layers, streamflow, and evapotranspiration rates were estimated as part of the calibration process by using observed water levels, vertical hydraulic gradients, streamflow, and estimated evapotranspiration rates as constraints. Simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the model area and streamflow trends at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station on the San Pedro River. Differences in observed and simulated water levels, streamflow, and evapotranspiration could be reduced through simulation of climate-related variations in recharge rates and recharge from flood-flow infiltration.

Computational Methods for Structural Mechanics and Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stroud, W. Jefferson (Editor); Housner, Jerrold M. (Editor); Tanner, John A. (Editor); Hayduk, Robert J. (Editor)

1989-01-01

Topics addressed include: transient dynamics; transient finite element method; transient analysis in impact and crash dynamic studies; multibody computer codes; dynamic analysis of space structures; multibody mechanics and manipulators; spatial and coplanar linkage systems; flexible body simulation; multibody dynamics; dynamical systems; and nonlinear characteristics of joints.

Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird.

PubMed

Genovart, Meritxell; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Igual, Jose M; Pradel, Roger; Forero, Manuela G; Oro, Daniel

2013-01-01

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Dynamic simulation of coronal mass ejections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinolfson, R. S.; Wu, S. T.

1980-01-01

A model is developed for the formation and propagation through the lower corona of the loop-like coronal transients in which mass is ejected from near the solar surface to the outer corona. It is assumed that the initial state for the transient is a coronal streamer. The initial state for the streamer is a polytropic, hydrodynamic solution to the steady-state radial equation of motion coupled with a force-free dipole magnetic field. The numerical solution of the complete time-dependent equations then gradually approaches a stationary coronal streamer configuration. The streamer configuration becomes the initial state for the coronal transient. The streamer and transient simulations are performed completely independent of each other. The transient is created by a sudden increase in the pressure at the base of the closed-field region in the streamer configuration. Both coronal streamers and coronal transients are calculated for values of the plasma beta (the ratio of thermal to magnetic pressure) varying from 0.1 to 100.

Transient simulation of molten salt central receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doupis, Dimitri; Wang, Chuan; Carcorze-Soto, Jorge; Chen, Yen-Ming; Maggi, Andrea; Losito, Matteo; Clark, Michael

2016-05-01

Alstom is developing concentrated solar power (CSP) utilizing 60/40wt% NaNO3-KNO3 molten salt as the working fluid in a tower receiver for the global renewable energy market. In the CSP power generation cycle, receivers undergo a daily cyclic operation due to the transient nature of solar energy. Development of robust and efficient start-up and shut-down procedures is critical to avoiding component failures due to mechanical fatigue resulting from thermal transients, thus maintaining the performance and availability of the CSP plant. The Molten Salt Central Receiver (MSCR) is subject to thermal transients during normal daily operation, a cycle that includes warmup, filling, operation, draining, and shutdown. This paper describes a study to leverage dynamic simulation and finite element analysis (FEA) in development of start-up, shutdown, and transient operation concepts for the MSCR. The results of the FEA also verify the robustness of the MSCR design to the thermal transients anticipated during the operation of the plant.

Optimization of startup and shutdown operation of simulated moving bed chromatographic processes.

PubMed

Li, Suzhou; Kawajiri, Yoshiaki; Raisch, Jörg; Seidel-Morgenstern, Andreas

2011-06-24

This paper presents new multistage optimal startup and shutdown strategies for simulated moving bed (SMB) chromatographic processes. The proposed concept allows to adjust transient operating conditions stage-wise, and provides capability to improve transient performance and to fulfill product quality specifications simultaneously. A specially tailored decomposition algorithm is developed to ensure computational tractability of the resulting dynamic optimization problems. By examining the transient operation of a literature separation example characterized by nonlinear competitive isotherm, the feasibility of the solution approach is demonstrated, and the performance of the conventional and multistage optimal transient regimes is evaluated systematically. The quantitative results clearly show that the optimal operating policies not only allow to significantly reduce both duration of the transient phase and desorbent consumption, but also enable on-spec production even during startup and shutdown periods. With the aid of the developed transient procedures, short-term separation campaigns with small batch sizes can be performed more flexibly and efficiently by SMB chromatography. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

DOE PAGES

Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

2012-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

The Impact Snow Albedo Feedback over Mountain Regions as Examined through High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Experiments over the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letcher, Theodore

As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo global warming (PGW) framework, which is an experimental configuration in a which a mean climate perturbation is added to the boundary forcing of a regional model, thus preserving the large-scale circulation entering the region through the model boundaries and isolating the mesoscale climate response. Using this framework, the impact of the SAF on the regional energetics and atmospheric dynamics is examined and quantified. Linear feedback analysis is used to quantify the strength of the SAF over the Headwaters region of the Colorado Rockies for a series of high-resolution PGW experiments. This technique is used to test sensitivity of the feedback strength to model resolution and land surface model. Over the Colorado Rockies, and integrated over the entire spring season, the SAF strength is largely insensitive to model resolution, however there are more substantial differences on the sub-seasonal (monthly) timescale. In contrast, the SAF strength over this region is very sensitive to choice of land surface model. These simulations are also used to investigate how spatial and diurnal variability in warming caused by the SAF influences the dynamics of thermally driven mountain-breeze circulations. It is shown that, the SAF causes stronger daytime mountain-breeze circulations by increasing the warming on the mountains slopes thus enhancing the thermal contrast between the mountain slopes and the surrounding lowlands which drives these wind systems. This analysis is extended to investigate the impacts that the SAF has on the large-scale mountain-plain circulation that develops east of the Rockies over the Great Plains. To help isolate the SAF, a more idealized regional climate experiment which isolates the SAF is performed. It was found that SAF may influence thermally driven atmospheric dynamics up-to 200km east of the Mountains where the SAF originates, suggesting broader regional impacts of the SAF which may not be well resolved by coarser resolution global climate models. The implications of these changes on pollution transport and moist convection are also explored using these simulations.

CFD simulations of transient load change on a high head Francis turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobsen, Ken-Robert G.; Aasved Holst, Martin

2017-01-01

Motivated by the importance of better understanding the structural integrity of high-head hydraulic turbines operating at intermittent conditions, complete 360º steady-state and transient simulations of a Francis turbine are presented in this paper. The main target of the work has been to investigate different numerical approaches such as mesh deformation for different operating conditions. Steady-state simulations were performed at the best efficiency point (BEP) and used as initial conditions for the transient simulations considering load rejection from BEP to part load (BEP2PL) and during load acceptance from BEP to high load (BEP2HL). Simulation results were compared with experimental data available for the Francis-99 project where close agreement was found for the mesh independent solution. The transient load analyses showed general trends in accordance with the measurement reports, especially for the pressure in vaneless space that is of high importance regarding RSI effects. Some deviations were identified for the net head at load rejection for which further investigations will be conducted. All CFD simulations were performed at model scale with ANSYS CFX v. 17 at either 96 or 120 cores (2.60 GHz). The immersed boundary technique was tested during the initial stages of the project, but had to be abandoned due to severe memory requirements. Pressure amplitudes and other instantaneous results were not considered.

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Cayan, D. R.; Meyer, M. K.

2001-12-01

Sensitivities of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are analyzed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-year period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th Century until about 1975, when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st Century with an attendant +2.5ºC warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. In contrast, a control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995, yields climate and streamflow-timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. Long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible above simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2020.

Data Serving Climate Simulation Science at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salmon, Ellen M.

2011-01-01

The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) provides high performance computational resources, a multi-petabyte archive, and data services in support of climate simulation research and other NASA-sponsored science. This talk describes the NCCS's data-centric architecture and processing, which are evolving in anticipation of researchers' growing requirements for higher resolution simulations and increased data sharing among NCCS users and the external science community.

Predictions and Tests of the "Late Noachian Icy Highlands" Climate Model: Can Evidence for Fluvial/Lacustrine Systems Be Reconciled?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2016-12-01

Improved 3D global simulations (GCMs) of the early martian climate have found that for atmospheric pressures greater than a fraction of a bar, atmospheric-surface thermal coupling occurs and the adiabatic cooling effect (ACE) causes temperatures in the southern uplands to fall significantly below the global average. Long-term climate evolution simulations indicate that in these circumstances, water ice is transported to the highlands from low-lying regions for a wide range of obliquities. Conditions are too cold (MAT 225 K) to permit the presence of long-term surface liquid water, including streams, lakes and oceans. The LNIH equilibrium state predicts: 1) a global permafrost layer, 2) a horizontally stratified hydrological cycle/system, 3) thick ice deposits in the southern uplands, 4) an extended water ice cap on the southern pole, and 5) no rainfall, streams lakes or oceans. The majority of these predictions are in direct conflict with the observed fluvial/lacustrine geologic record. Can non-equilibrium conditions in a LNIH scenario explain these conflicts by transient heating and melting of the LNIH? As steps in the comprehensive testing of this "Late Noachian Icy Highlands" (LNIH) model we explore the predictions for geologic settings and processes in both equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate states. We assess the following sources of disequilibrium: 1) Top-down heating and melting: a) impact cratering, b) extrusive/explosive volcanism, and c) short-term emission of greenhouse gases. 2) Bottom up heating and melting: a) enhanced regional-global geothermal gradients, and b) thick ice accumulation to cause/sustain basal melting, wet-based glaciation and runoff. We assess these disequilibrium mechanisms in terms of: 1) the altitude dependence of melting, 2) melting duration, 3) volumes of meltwater produced, 4) predicted locations of meltwater production, and 6) comparison to the distribution of fluvial/lacustrine features. We find that the Late Noachian Icy Highlands climate model cannot be reconciled with observations unless punctuated non-equilibrium conditions occur. We show that the best candidates for LNIH disequilibrium conditions involve top-down heating and melting conditions chronologically summing in duration to more than tens of thousands to millions of years.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

Treesearch

Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

2012-01-01

The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

Transient Plasma Photonic Crystals for High-Power Lasers.

PubMed

Lehmann, G; Spatschek, K H

2016-06-03

A new type of transient photonic crystals for high-power lasers is presented. The crystal is produced by counterpropagating laser beams in plasma. Trapped electrons and electrically forced ions generate a strong density grating. The lifetime of the transient photonic crystal is determined by the ballistic motion of ions. The robustness of the photonic crystal allows one to manipulate high-intensity laser pulses. The scheme of the crystal is analyzed here by 1D Vlasov simulations. Reflection or transmission of high-power laser pulses are predicted by particle-in-cell simulations. It is shown that a transient plasma photonic crystal may act as a tunable mirror for intense laser pulses. Generalizations to 2D and 3D configurations are possible.

Urban weather data and building models for the inclusion of the urban heat island effect in building performance simulation.

PubMed

Palme, M; Inostroza, L; Villacreses, G; Lobato, A; Carrasco, C

2017-10-01

This data article presents files supporting calculation for urban heat island (UHI) inclusion in building performance simulation (BPS). Methodology is used in the research article "From urban climate to energy consumption. Enhancing building performance simulation by including the urban heat island effect" (Palme et al., 2017) [1]. In this research, a Geographical Information System (GIS) study is done in order to statistically represent the most important urban scenarios of four South-American cities (Guayaquil, Lima, Antofagasta and Valparaíso). Then, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is done to obtain reference Urban Tissues Categories (UTC) to be used in urban weather simulation. The urban weather files are generated by using the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) software (version 4.1 beta). Finally, BPS is run out with the Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) software (version 17). In this data paper, four sets of data are presented: 1) PCA data (excel) to explain how to group different urban samples in representative UTC; 2) UWG data (text) to reproduce the Urban Weather Generation for the UTC used in the four cities (4 UTC in Lima, Guayaquil, Antofagasta and 5 UTC in Valparaíso); 3) weather data (text) with the resulting rural and urban weather; 4) BPS models (text) data containing the TRNSYS models (four building models).

The analysis of transient noise of PCB P/G network based on PI/SI co-simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haohang, Su

2018-02-01

With the frequency of the space camera become higher than before, the power noise of the imaging electronic system become the important factor. Much more power noise would disturb the transmissions signal, and even influence the image sharpness and system noise. "Target impedance method" is one of the traditional design method of P/G network (power and ground network), which is shorted of transient power noise analysis and often made "over design". In this paper, a new design method of P/G network is provided which simulated by PI/SI co-simulation. The transient power noise can be simulated and then applied in the design of noise reduction, thus effectively controlling the change of the noise in the P/G network. The method can efficiently control the number of adding decoupling capacitor, and is very efficient and feasible to keep the power integrity.

Final Technical Report for Project "Improving the Simulation of Arctic Clouds in CCSM3"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen J. Vavrus

2008-11-15

This project has focused on the simulation of Arctic clouds in CCSM3 and how the modeled cloud amount (and climate) can be improved substantially by altering the parameterized low cloud fraction. The new formula, dubbed 'freeezedry', alleviates the bias of excessive low clouds during polar winter by reducing the cloud amount under very dry conditions. During winter, freezedry decreases the low cloud amount over the coldest regions in high latitudes by over 50% locally and more than 30% averaged across the Arctic (Fig. 1). The cloud reduction causes an Arctic-wide drop of 15 W m{sup -2} in surface cloud radiativemore » forcing (CRF) during winter and about a 50% decrease in mean annual Arctic CRF. Consequently, wintertime surface temperatures fall by up to 4 K on land and 2-8 K over the Arctic Ocean, thus significantly reducing the model's pronounced warm bias (Fig. 1). While improving the polar climate simulation in CCSM3, freezedry has virtually no influence outside of very cold regions (Fig. 2) or during summer (Fig. 3), which are space and time domains that were not targeted. Furthermore, the simplicity of this parameterization allows it to be readily incorporated into other GCMs, many of which also suffer from excessive wintertime polar cloudiness, based on the results from the CMIP3 archive (Vavrus et al., 2008). Freezedry also affects CCSM3's sensitivity to greenhouse forcing. In a transient-CO{sub 2} experiment, the model version with freezedry warms up to 20% less in the North Polar and South Polar regions (1.5 K and 0.5 K smaller warming, respectively) (Fig. 4). Paradoxically, the muted high-latitude response occurs despite a much larger increase in cloud amount with freezedry during non-summer months (when clouds warm the surface), apparently because of the colder modern reference climate. These results of the freezedry parameterization have recently been published (Vavrus and D. Waliser, 2008: An improved parameterization for simulating Arctic cloud amount in the CCSM3 climate model. J. Climate, 21, 5673-5687.). The article also provides a novel synthesis of surface- and satellite-based Arctic cloud observations that show how much the new freezedry parameterization improves the simulated cloud amount in high latitudes (Fig. 3). Freezedry has been incorporated into the CCSM3.5 version, in which it successfully limits the excessive polar clouds, and may be used in CCSM4. Material from this work is also appearing in a synthesis article on future Arctic cloud changes (Vavrus, D. Waliser, J. Francis, and A. Schweiger, 'Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4', accepted in Climate Dynamics) and was used in a collaborative paper on Arctic cloud-sea ice coupling (Schweiger, A., R. Lindsay, S. Vavrus, and J. Francis, 2008: Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21, 4799-4810.). This research was presented at the 2007 CCSM Annual Workshop, as well as the CCSM's 2007 Atmospheric Model Working Group and Polar Working Group Meetings. The findings were also shown at the 2007 Climate Change Prediction Program's Science Team Meeting. In addition, I served as an instructor at the International Arctic Research Center's (IARC) Summer School on Arctic Climate Modeling in Fairbanks this summer, where I presented on the challenges and techniques used in simulating polar clouds. I also contributed to the development of a new Arctic System Model by attending a workshop in Colorado this summer on this fledgling project. Finally, an outreach activity for the general public has been the development of an interactive web site () that displays Arctic cloud amount in the CMIP3 climate model archive under present and future scenarios. This site allows users to make polar and global maps of a variety of climate variables to investigate the individual and ensemble-mean GCM response to greenhouse warming and the extent to which models adequately represent Arctic clouds in the modern climate. This site was used extensively in the IARC summer school projects. This work has also led to a collaboration this year during a 4-month visit I made to NCAR through its Faculty Fellowship Program. I worked with scientists Marika Holland, David Bailey, Andrew Gettleman, and Jen Kay, who are researching polar climate and/or clouds. I met with this group frequently during my visit, leading to some fruitful interactions. This work led to the discovery of a tightly coupled response of clouds and sea ice during intervals of rapid sea ice loss in greenhouse simulations, as well as advising on the evolving CCSM3.5 to CCSM4 model development. This involvement with NCAR also led to a longer-term connection, as I have recently begun a two-year stint on the SSC for CCSM.« less

Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-quality trends in transient flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios; Robbins, Gary A.

2013-01-01

In numerical modeling of groundwater flow, the result of a given solution method is affected by the way in which transient flow conditions and geologic heterogeneity are simulated. An algorithm is demonstrated that simulates breakthrough curves at a pumping well by convolution-based particle tracking in a transient flow field for several synthetic basin-scale aquifers. In comparison to grid-based (Eulerian) methods, the particle (Lagrangian) method is better able to capture multimodal breakthrough caused by changes in pumping at the well, although the particle method may be apparently nonlinear because of the discrete nature of particle arrival times. Trial-and-error choice of number of particles and release times can perhaps overcome the apparent nonlinearity. Heterogeneous aquifer properties tend to smooth the effects of transient pumping, making it difficult to separate their effects in parameter estimation. Porosity, a new parameter added for advective transport, can be accurately estimated using both grid-based and particle-based methods, but predictions can be highly uncertain, even in the simple, nonreactive case.

Steady-State and Transient Groundwater Flow and Advective Transport, Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer, Idaho National Laboratory and Vicinity, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. C.; Ackerman, D. J.; Rousseau, J. P.; Rattray, G. W.

2009-12-01

Three-dimensional steady-state and transient models of groundwater flow and advective transport through the fractured basalts and interbedded sediments of the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy. The model domain covers an area of 1,940 square miles that includes most of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A 50-year history of waste disposal at the INL has resulted in measurable concentrations of waste contaminants in the aquifer. Numerical models simulated 1980 steady-state conditions and transient flow for 1980-95. In the transient model, streamflow infiltration was the major stress. The models were calibrated using the parameter-estimation program incorporated in MODFLOW-2000. The steady-state model reasonably simulated the observed water-table altitude and gradients. Simulation of transient conditions reproduced changes in the flow system resulting from episodic infiltration from the Big Lost River. Analysis of simulations shows that flow is (1) dominantly horizontal through interflow zones in basalt, vertical anisotropy resulting from contrasts in hydraulic conductivity of different types of basalt and the interbedded sediments, (2) temporally variable due to streamflow infiltration from the Big Lost River, and (3) moving downward downgradient of the INL. Particle-tracking simulations were used to evaluate how simulated groundwater flow paths and travel times differ between the steady-state and transient flow models, and how well model-derived groundwater flow directions and velocities compare to independently-derived estimates. Particle tracking also was used to simulate the growth of tritium plumes originating at two INL facilities over a 16 year period under steady-state and transient flow conditions (1953-68). The shape, dimensions, and areal extent of these plumes were compared to a map of the plumes for 1968 from tritium releases beginning in 1952. Collectively, the particle-tracking simulations indicate that groundwater flow paths and velocities, based on uncalibrated estimates of porosity, are influenced by the dynamic character of the water table and the large contrasts in the hydraulic properties of the media, primarily hydraulic conductivity. Simulation results also indicate that temporal changes in the local hydraulic gradient can account for some of the observed dispersion of contaminants in the aquifer near the major sources of contamination and perhaps the majority of the observed dispersion several miles downgradient of these facilities. The distance downgradient of the facilities where simulated particle plumes were able to reasonably reproduce the 1968 tritium plume extended only to the boundary separating sediment-rich from sediment-poor aquifer layers about 4 mi downgradient of the contaminant source. Particle plumes simulated beyond this boundary were narrow and long, and did not reasonably reproduce the shape, dimensions, or position of the leading edge of the tritium plume; however, few data were available to characterize its true areal extent and shape.

Water Isotope Proxy-Proxy and Proxy-Model Convergence for Late Pleistocene East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, S. C.; Holbourn, A.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, K. E.; Liu, Z.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Confidence in reconstruction of East Asian paleomonsoon rainfall using precipitation isotope proxies is a matter of considerable debate, largely due to the lack of correlation between precipitation amount and isotopic composition in the present climate. We present four new, very highly resolved records spanning the past 300,000 years ( 200 year sample spacing) from IODP Site U1429 in the East China Sea. We demonstrate that all the orbital- and millennial-scale variance in the onshore Yangtze River Valley speleothem δ18O record1 is also embedded in the offshore Site U1429 seawater δ18O record (derived from the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and sea surface temperature reconstructions). Signal replication in these two independent terrestrial and marine archives, both controlled by the same monsoon system, uniquely identifies δ18O of precipitation as the primary driver of the precession-band variance in both records. This proxy-proxy convergence also eliminates a wide array of other drivers that have been called upon as potential contaminants to the precipitation δ18O signal recorded by these proxies. We compare East Asian precipitation isotope proxy records to precipitation amount from a CCSM3 transient climate model simulation of the past 300,000 years using realistic insolation, ice volume, greenhouse gasses, and sea level boundary conditions. This model-proxy comparison suggests that both Yangtze River Valley precipitation isotope proxies (seawater and speleothem δ18O) track changes in summer-monsoon rainfall amount at orbital time scales, as do precipitation isotope records from the Pearl River Valley2 (leaf wax δ2H) and Borneo3 (speleothem δ18O). Notably, these proxy records all have significantly different spectral structure indicating strongly regional rainfall patterns that are also consistent with model results. Transient, isotope-enabled model simulations will be necessary to more thoroughly evaluate these promising results, and to evaluate potentially distinct regional mechanisms linking rainfall amount to precipitation isotopes at orbital and millennial time scales in other monsoon regions. 1 Cheng et al., 10.1038/nature18591 2 Thomas et al., 10.1130/G36289.1 3 Carolin et al., 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.028

Turbofan Engine Post-Instability Behavior - Computer Simulations, Test Validation, and Application of Simulations,

DTIC Science & Technology

COMPRESSORS, *AIR FLOW, TURBOFAN ENGINES , TRANSIENTS, SURGES, STABILITY, COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION, EXPERIMENTAL DATA, VALIDATION, DIGITAL SIMULATION, INLET GUIDE VANES , ROTATION, STALLING, RECOVERY, HYSTERESIS

Comparison of simulations to experiment for a detailed analysis of space-charge-limited transient current measurements in organic semiconductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szymanski, Marek Z.; Kulszewicz-Bajer, Irena; Faure-Vincent, Jérôme; Djurado, David

2012-05-01

Space-charge-limited current transients (also referred as time resolved dark injection) is an attractive technique for mobility measurements in low mobility materials, particularly the organic semiconductors. Transients are generally analyzed in terms of the Many-Rakavy theory, which is an approximate analytical solution of the time-dependent drift-diffusion problem after application of a voltage step. In this contribution, we perform full time-dependent drift-diffusion simulation and compare simulated and experimental transients measured on a sample of triaryl-amine based electroactive dendrimer (experimental conditions: μ≈10-5 cm2/(Vs), L=300 nm, E<105 V/cm). We have found that the Many-Rakavy theory is indeed valid for estimating the mobility value, but it fails to predict quantitatively the time-dependent current response. In order to obtain a good agreement in between simulation and experiment, trapping and quasi-ohmic contact models were needed to be taken into account. In the case of the studied electroactive dendrimer, the experimental results were apparently consistent with the constant mobility Many-Rakavy theory, but with this model, a large uncertainty of 20% was found for the mobility value. We show that this uncertainty can be significantly reduced to 10% if a field-dependent mobility is taken into account in the framework of the extended Gaussian disorder model. Finally, we demonstrate that this fitting procedure between simulated and experimental transient responses also permits to unambiguously provide the values of the contact barrier, the trap concentration, the trap depth in addition to that of the mobility of carriers.

Simulation of the transient indiffusion-segregation process of triply negatively charged Ga vacancies in GaAs and AlAs/GaAs superlattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Horng-Ming; Gösele, Ulrich M.; Tan, Teh Y.

1993-08-01

In GaAs and AlAs/GaAs superlattice crystals containing n-type regions, several sets of recent experimental results obtained from diffusion studies require the interpretation that the responsible point defect species, the triply negatively charged Ga vacancy (VGa3-), has attained its thermal equilibrium concentration (CVGa3-eq) at the onset of an experiment. This could be due to either the fact that under heavy n-doping conditions CVGa3-eq is fairly temperature independent, or the fact that the transient process of populating VGa3- from an undersaturated to the appropriate CVGa3-eq value via indiffusion from the surfaces to the interior of the crystals is extremely rapid. We have simulated the transient process of populating VGa3- to the crystal interior. The experiments use crystals consisting of adjacent intrinsic and n-type regions for which CVGa3-eq values are different, leading to the simultaneous occurrence of VGa3- diffusion and segregation phenomena. A diffusion-segregation equation has been derived and subsequently used in the simulation calculations. The simulation results showed that, as long as n-type regions are involved, such transient processes are ineffective and therefore cannot explain the experimental requirement that VGa3- is already present in the appropriate CVGa3-eq(n) value at the onset of an experiment. On the other hand, the transient process is sufficiently rapid for the purely intrinsic crystal cases. These simulation results support our recent finding that the CVGa3-eq(n) values are essentially temperature independent, obtained via a thermodynamic treatment.

Identification of the Initial Transient in Discrete-Event Simulation Output Using the Kalman Filter

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-01

output vector is obtained from each simulation observation. For example, consider a simulation of a medical clinic that has three types of patients and...determined. The variance of the output P- is derived using Equations (34), (46) and (47): ynt= AVv +,Zn = ± + Hx(tn) + v(t.) (53) = / + ý(t.) + V(tn...residuals fail the hypothesis test approximately 100cl percent of the trials . However, during the transient phase, the data’s relationship in time should be

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

FlashPhotol: Using a Flash Photolysis Apparatus Simulator to Introduce Students to the Kinetics of Transient Species and Fast Reactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bigger, Stephen W.

2016-01-01

FlashPhotol is an educational software package that introduces students to the kinetics of transient species and fast reactions. This is achieved by means of a computer-simulated flash photolysis apparatus that comprises all major functional elements and that students can use to perform various experiments. The experimental interface presents a…

Transient immune impairment after a simulated long-haul flight.

PubMed

Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Mustafa, Fatima B; Peng, Chung Mien; Earnest, Arul; Koh, David; Lin, Gen; Hossain, Iqbal; MacAry, Paul A

2012-04-01

Almost 2 billion people travel aboard commercial airlines every year, with about 20% developing symptoms of the common cold within 1 wk after air travel. We hypothesize that hypobaric hypoxic conditions associated with air travel may contribute to immune impairment. We studied the effects of hypobaric hypoxic conditions during a simulated flight at 8000 ft (2438 m) cruising altitude on immune and stress markers in 52 healthy volunteers (mean age 31) before and on days 1, 4, and 7 after the flight. We did a cohort study using a generalized estimating equation to examine the differences in the repeated measures. Our findings show that the hypobaric hypoxic conditions of a 10-h overnight simulation flight are not associated with severe immune impairment or abnormal IgA or cortisol levels, but with transient impairment in some parameters: we observed a transient decrease in lymphocyte proliferative responses combined with an upregulation in CD69 and CD14 cells and a decrease in HLA-DR in the immediate days following the simulated flight that normalized by day 7 in most instances. These transient immune changes may contribute to an increased susceptibility to respiratory infections commonly seen after long-haul flights.

A mid-Pleistocene rainforest corridor enabled synchronous invasions of the Atlantic Forest by Amazonian anole lizards.

PubMed

Prates, Ivan; Rivera, Danielle; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-10-01

Shifts in the geographic distribution of habitats over time can promote dispersal and vicariance, thereby influencing large-scale biogeographic patterns and ecological processes. An example is that of transient corridors of suitable habitat across disjunct but ecologically similar regions, which have been associated with climate change over time. Such connections likely played a role in the assembly of tropical communities, especially within the highly diverse Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests of South America. Although these forests are presently separated by open and dry ecosystems, paleoclimatic and phylogenetic evidence suggest that they have been transiently connected in the past. However, little is known about the timing, magnitude and the distribution of former forest connections. We employ sequence data at multiple loci from three codistributed arboreal lizards (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii and Polychrus marmoratus) to infer the phylogenetic relationships among Amazonian and Atlantic Forest populations and to test alternative historical demographic scenarios of colonization and vicariance using coalescent simulations and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Data from the better-sampled Anolis species support colonization of the Atlantic Forest from eastern Amazonia. Hierarchical ABC indicates that the three species colonized the Atlantic Forest synchronously during the mid-Pleistocene. We find support of population bottlenecks associated with founder events in the two Anolis, but not in P. marmoratus, consistently with their distinct ecological tolerances. Our findings support that climatic fluctuations provided key opportunities for dispersal and forest colonization in eastern South America through the cessation of environmental barriers. Evidence of species-specific histories strengthens assertions that biological attributes play a role in responses to shared environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Dynamic modeling of human thermal comfort after the transition from an indoor to an outdoor hot environment.

PubMed

Katavoutas, George; Flocas, Helena A; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-02-01

Thermal comfort under non-steady-state conditions primarily deals with rapid environmental transients and significant alterations of the meteorological conditions, activity, or clothing pattern within the time scale of some minutes. In such cases, thermal history plays an important role in respect to time, and thus, a dynamic approach is appropriate. The present study aims to investigate the dynamic thermal adaptation process of a human individual, after his transition from a typical indoor climate to an outdoor hot environment. Three scenarios of thermal transients have been considered for a range of hot outdoor environmental conditions, employing the dynamic two-node IMEM model. The differences among them concern the radiation field, the activity level, and the body position. The temporal pattern of body temperatures as well as the range of skin wettedness and of water loss have been investigated and compared among the scenarios and the environmental conditions considered. The structure and the temporal course of human energy fluxes as well as the identification of the contribution of body temperatures to energy fluxes have also been studied and compared. In general, the simulation results indicate that the response of a person, coming from the same neutral indoor climate, varies depending on the scenario followed by the individual while being outdoors. The combination of radiation field (shade or not) with the kind of activity (sitting or walking) and the outdoor conditions differentiates significantly the thermal state of the human body. Therefore, 75% of the skin wettedness values do not exceed the thermal comfort limit at rest for a sitting individual under the shade. This percentage decreases dramatically, less than 25%, under direct solar radiation and exceeds 75% for a walking person under direct solar radiation.

Experimental Validation of a Closed Brayton Cycle System Transient Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Paul K.; Hervol, David S.

2006-01-01

The Brayton Power Conversion Unit (BPCU) located at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio was used to validate the results of a computational code known as Closed Cycle System Simulation (CCSS). Conversion system thermal transient behavior was the focus of this validation. The BPCU was operated at various steady state points and then subjected to transient changes involving shaft rotational speed and thermal energy input. These conditions were then duplicated in CCSS. Validation of the CCSS BPCU model provides confidence in developing future Brayton power system performance predictions, and helps to guide high power Brayton technology development.

Transient difference solutions of the inhomogeneous wave equation - Simulation of the Green's function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeister, K. J.

1983-01-01

A time-dependent finite difference formulation to the inhomogeneous wave equation is derived for plane wave propagation with harmonic noise sources. The difference equation and boundary conditions are developed along with the techniques to simulate the Dirac delta function associated with a concentrated noise source. Example calculations are presented for the Green's function and distributed noise sources. For the example considered, the desired Fourier transformed acoustic pressures are determined from the transient pressures by use of a ramping function and an integration technique, both of which eliminates the nonharmonic pressure associated with the initial transient.

Transient difference solutions of the inhomogeneous wave equation: Simulation of the Green's function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeiste, K. J.

1983-01-01

A time-dependent finite difference formulation to the inhomogeneous wave equation is derived for plane wave propagation with harmonic noise sources. The difference equation and boundary conditions are developed along with the techniques to simulate the Dirac delta function associated with a concentrated noise source. Example calculations are presented for the Green's function and distributed noise sources. For the example considered, the desired Fourier transformed acoustic pressures are determined from the transient pressures by use of a ramping function and an integration technique, both of which eliminates the nonharmonic pressure associated with the initial transient.

Analyses of the stratospheric dynamics simulated by a GCM with a stochastic nonorographic gravity wave parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Riccio, Angelo

2016-04-01

The effects of the propagation and breaking of atmospheric gravity waves have long been considered crucial for their impact on the circulation, especially in the stratosphere and mesosphere, between heights of 10 and 110 km. These waves, that in the Earth's atmosphere originate from surface orography (OGWs) or from transient (nonorographic) phenomena such as fronts and convective processes (NOGWs), have horizontal wavelengths between 10 and 1000 km, vertical wavelengths of several km, and frequencies spanning from minutes to hours. Orographic and nonorographic GWs must be accounted for in climate models to obtain a realistic simulation of the stratosphere in both hemispheres, since they can have a substantial impact on circulation and temperature, hence an important role in ozone chemistry for chemistry-climate models. Several types of parameterization are currently employed in models, differing in the formulation and for the values assigned to parameters, but the common aim is to quantify the effect of wave breaking on large-scale wind and temperature patterns. In the last decade, both global observations from satellite-borne instruments and the outputs of very high resolution climate models provided insight on the variability and properties of gravity wave field, and these results can be used to constrain some of the empirical parameters present in most parameterization scheme. A feature of the NOGW forcing that clearly emerges is the intermittency, linked with the nature of the sources: this property is absent in the majority of the models, in which NOGW parameterizations are uncoupled with other atmospheric phenomena, leading to results which display lower variability compared to observations. In this work, we analyze the climate simulated in AMIP runs of the MAECHAM5 model, which uses the Hines NOGW parameterization and with a fine vertical resolution suitable to capture the effects of wave-mean flow interaction. We compare the results obtained with two version of the model, the default and a new stochastic version, in which the value of the perturbation field at launching level is not constant and uniform, but extracted at each time-step and grid-point from a given PDF. With this approach we are trying to add further variability to the effects given by the deterministic NOGW parameterization: the impact on the simulated climate will be assessed focusing on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the equatorial stratosphere (known to be driven also by gravity waves) and on the variability of the mid-to-high latitudes atmosphere. The different characteristics of the circulation will be compared with recent reanalysis products in order to determine the advantages of the stochastic approach over the traditional deterministic scheme.

Summary of efficiency testing of standard and high-capacity high-efficiency particulate air filters subjected to simulated tornado depressurization and explosive shock waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, P.R.; Gregory, W.S.

1985-04-01

Pressure transients in nuclear facility air cleaning systems can originate from natural phenomena such as tornadoes or from accident-induced explosive blast waves. This study was concerned with the effective efficiency of high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters during pressure surges resulting from simulated tornado and explosion transients. The primary objective of the study was to examine filter efficiencies at pressure levels below the point of structural failure. Both standard and high-capacity 0.61-m by 0.61-m HEPA filters were evaluated, as were several 0.2-m by 0.2-m HEPA filters. For a particular manufacturer, the material release when subjected to tornado transients is the samemore » (per unit area) for both the 0.2-m by 0.2-m and the 0.61-m by 0.61-m filters. For tornado transients, the material release was on the order of micrograms per square meter. When subjecting clean HEPA filters to simulated tornado transients with aerosol entrained in the pressure pulse, all filters tested showed a degradation of filter efficiency. For explosive transients, the material release from preloaded high-capacity filters was as much as 340 g. When preloaded high-capacity filters were subjected to shock waves approximately 50% of the structural limit level, 1 to 2 mg of particulate was released.« less

Addressing climate change in the Forest Vegetation Simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

2010-01-01

To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

Addressing climate change in the forest vegetation simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

2010-01-01

To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

2017-04-01

The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change. [The authors acknowledge funding for the project from the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection].

Advanced Instrumentation for Transient Reactor Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corradini, Michael L.; Anderson, Mark; Imel, George

Transient testing involves placing fuel or material into the core of specialized materials test reactors that are capable of simulating a range of design basis accidents, including reactivity insertion accidents, that require the reactor produce short bursts of intense highpower neutron flux and gamma radiation. Testing fuel behavior in a prototypic neutron environment under high-power, accident-simulation conditions is a key step in licensing nuclear fuels for use in existing and future nuclear power plants. Transient testing of nuclear fuels is needed to develop and prove the safety basis for advanced reactors and fuels. In addition, modern fuel development and designmore » increasingly relies on modeling and simulation efforts that must be informed and validated using specially designed material performance separate effects studies. These studies will require experimental facilities that are able to support variable scale, highly instrumented tests providing data that have appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. Finally, there are efforts now underway to develop advanced light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced performance and accident tolerance. These advanced reactor designs will also require new fuel types. These new fuels need to be tested in a controlled environment in order to learn how they respond to accident conditions. For these applications, transient reactor testing is needed to help design fuels with improved performance. In order to maximize the value of transient testing, there is a need for in-situ transient realtime imaging technology (e.g., the neutron detection and imaging system like the hodoscope) to see fuel motion during rapid transient excursions with a higher degree of spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. There also exists a need for new small, compact local sensors and instrumentation that are capable of collecting data during transients (e.g., local displacements, temperatures, thermal conductivity, neutron flux, etc.).« less

Real-Time Climate Simulations in the Interactive 3D Game Universe Sandbox ²

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenson, N. L.

2014-12-01

Exploration in an open-ended computer game is an engaging way to explore climate and climate change. Everyone can explore physical models with real-time visualization in the educational simulator Universe Sandbox ² (universesandbox.com/2), which includes basic climate simulations on planets. I have implemented a time-dependent, one-dimensional meridional heat transport energy balance model to run and be adjustable in real time in the midst of a larger simulated system. Universe Sandbox ² is based on the original game - at its core a gravity simulator - with other new physically-based content for stellar evolution, and handling collisions between bodies. Existing users are mostly science enthusiasts in informal settings. We believe that this is the first climate simulation to be implemented in a professionally developed computer game with modern 3D graphical output in real time. The type of simple climate model we've adopted helps us depict the seasonal cycle and the more drastic changes that come from changing the orbit or other external forcings. Users can alter the climate as the simulation is running by altering the star(s) in the simulation, dragging to change orbits and obliquity, adjusting the climate simulation parameters directly or changing other properties like CO2 concentration that affect the model parameters in representative ways. Ongoing visuals of the expansion and contraction of sea ice and snow-cover respond to the temperature calculations, and make it accessible to explore a variety of scenarios and intuitive to understand the output. Variables like temperature can also be graphed in real time. We balance computational constraints with the ability to capture the physical phenomena we wish to visualize, giving everyone access to a simple open-ended meridional energy balance climate simulation to explore and experiment with. The software lends itself to labs at a variety of levels about climate concepts including seasons, the Greenhouse effect, reservoirs and flows, albedo feedback, Snowball Earth, climate sensitivity, and model experiment design. Climate calculations are extended to Mars with some modifications to the Earth climate component, and could be used in lessons about the Mars atmosphere, and exploring scenarios of Mars climate history.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J.; Rugh, John; Tomerlin, Jeff

Increased market penetration of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming a number of hurdles, including limited vehicle range and the elevated cost in comparison to conventional vehicles. Climate control loads have a significant impact on range, cutting it by over 50% in both cooling and heating conditions. To minimize the impact of climate control on EDV range, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has partnered with Hyundai America and key industry partners to quantify the performance of thermal load reduction technologies on a Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Technologies that impact vehicle cabin heating in cold weather conditions and cabinmore » cooling in warm weather conditions were evaluated. Tests included thermal transient and steady-state periods for all technologies, including the development of a new test methodology to evaluate the performance of occupant thermal conditioning. Heated surfaces demonstrated significant reductions in energy use from steady-state heating, including a 29%-59% reduction from heated surfaces. Solar control glass packages demonstrated significant reductions in energy use for both transient and steady-state cooling, with up to a 42% reduction in transient and 12.8% reduction in steady-state energy use for the packages evaluated. Technologies that demonstrated significant climate control load reduction were selected for incorporation into a complete thermal load reduction package. The complete package is set to be evaluated in the second phase of the ongoing project.« less

Advantages of 3D FEM numerical modeling over 2D, analyzed in a case study of transient thermal-hydraulic groundwater utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchsluger, Martin; Götzl, Gregor

2014-05-01

In general most aquifers have a much larger lateral extent than vertical. This fact leads to the application of the Dupuit-Forchheimer assumptions to many groundwater problems, whereas a two dimensional simulation is considered sufficient. By coupling transient fluid flow modeling with heat transport the 2D aquifer approximation is in many cases insufficient as it does not consider effects of the subjacent and overlying aquitards on heat propagation as well as the impact of surface climatic effects on shallow aquifers. A shallow Holocene aquifer in Vienna served as a case study to compare different modeling approaches in two and three dimensions in order to predict the performance and impact of a thermal aquifer utilization for heating (1.3 GWh) and cooling (1.4 GWh) of a communal building. With the assumption of a 6 doublets well field, the comparison was realized in three steps: At first a two dimensional model for unconfined flow was set up, assuming a varying hydraulic conductivity as well as a varying top and bottom elevation of the aquifer (gross - thickness). The model area was chosen along constant hydraulic head at steady state conditions. A second model was made by mapping solely the aquifer in three dimensions using the same subdomain and boundary conditions as defined in step one. The third model consists of a complete three dimensional geological build-up including the aquifer as well as the overlying and subjacent layers and additionally an annually variable climatic boundary condition at the surface. The latter was calibrated with measured water temperature at a nearby water gauge. For all three models the same annual operating mode of the 6 hydraulic doublets was assumed. Furthermore a limited maximal groundwater temperature at a range between 8 and 18 °C as well as a constrained well flow rate has been given. Finally a descriptive comparison of the three models concerning the extracted thermal power, drawdown, temperature distribution and Darcy flow has been realized. In addition the effects of the basement of the building to the groundwater flow have been analyzed. The results of the 2D model show an underestimation of more than 10 % of the performance of the groundwater utilization facility and a considerable smaller groundwater table drawdown compared to the 3D simulations. This is due to the possibility of 3D modeling to consider (i) the heat distribution and storage in the adjacent layers, (ii) the climatic surface effect and (iii) vertical groundwater flow.

Transferability of optimally-selected climate models in the quantification of climate change impacts on hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe

2016-11-01

Given the ever increasing number of climate change simulations being carried out, it has become impractical to use all of them to cover the uncertainty of climate change impacts. Various methods have been proposed to optimally select subsets of a large ensemble of climate simulations for impact studies. However, the behaviour of optimally-selected subsets of climate simulations for climate change impacts is unknown, since the transfer process from climate projections to the impact study world is usually highly non-linear. Consequently, this study investigates the transferability of optimally-selected subsets of climate simulations in the case of hydrological impacts. Two different methods were used for the optimal selection of subsets of climate scenarios, and both were found to be capable of adequately representing the spread of selected climate model variables contained in the original large ensemble. However, in both cases, the optimal subsets had limited transferability to hydrological impacts. To capture a similar variability in the impact model world, many more simulations have to be used than those that are needed to simply cover variability from the climate model variables' perspective. Overall, both optimal subset selection methods were better than random selection when small subsets were selected from a large ensemble for impact studies. However, as the number of selected simulations increased, random selection often performed better than the two optimal methods. To ensure adequate uncertainty coverage, the results of this study imply that selecting as many climate change simulations as possible is the best avenue. Where this was not possible, the two optimal methods were found to perform adequately.

From transient to steady-state response of ecosystems to atmospheric CO2-enrichment and global climate change: conceptual challenges and need for an integrated approach

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad

2006-01-01

Evidence continues to accumulate that humans are significantly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in unprecedented changes in the global climate system. Experimental manipulations of terrestrial ecosystems and their components have greatly increased our understanding of short-term responses to these global perturbations and have...

“Characterizing Factors Influencing SI Engine Transient Fuel Consumption for Vehicle Simulation in ALPHA,” SAE Technical Paper 2017-01-0533, 2017, doi:10.4271/2017-01-0533, Dekraker, P., Stuhldreher, M., Kim, Y. (SwRI).

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This paper examines a) typical transient engine operation encountered over the EPA city and highway drive cycles, b) EPA’s vehicle and engine testing to characterize that transient fuel usage, and c) changes made to ALPHA to better model transient engine

An RL10A-3-3A rocket engine model using the rocket engine transient simulator (ROCETS) software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Binder, Michael

1993-01-01

Steady-state and transient computer models of the RL10A-3-3A rocket engine have been created using the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) code. These models were created for several purposes. The RL10 engine is a critical component of past, present, and future space missions; the model will give NASA an in-house capability to simulate the performance of the engine under various operating conditions and mission profiles. The RL10 simulation activity is also an opportunity to further validate the ROCETS program. The ROCETS code is an important tool for modeling rocket engine systems at NASA Lewis. ROCETS provides a modular and general framework for simulating the steady-state and transient behavior of any desired propulsion system. Although the ROCETS code is being used in a number of different analysis and design projects within NASA, it has not been extensively validated for any system using actual test data. The RL10A-3-3A has a ten year history of test and flight applications; it should provide sufficient data to validate the ROCETS program capability. The ROCETS models of the RL10 system were created using design information provided by Pratt & Whitney, the engine manufacturer. These models are in the process of being validated using test-stand and flight data. This paper includes a brief description of the models and comparison of preliminary simulation output against flight and test-stand data.

Simulation of water available for runoff in clearcut forest openings during rain-on-snow events in the western Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Heeswijk, Marijke; Kimball, J.S.; Marks, Danny

1996-01-01

Rain-on-snow events are common on mountain slopes within the transient-snow zone of the Pacific Northwest. These events make more water available for runoff than does precipitation alone by melting the snowpack and by adding a small amount of condensate to the snowpack. In forest openings (such as those resulting from clearcut logging), the amount of snow that accumulates and the turbulent- energy input to the snowpack are greater than below forest stands. Both factors are believed to contribute to a greater amount of water available for runoff during rain-on-snow events in forest openings than forest stands. Because increased water available for runoff may lead to increased downstream flooding and erosion, knowledge of the amount of snowmelt that can occur during rain on snow and the processes that control snowmelt in forest openings is useful when making land-use decisions. Snow accumulation and melt were simulated for clearcut conditions only, using an enery- balance approach that accounts for the most important energy and mass exchanges between a snowpack and its environment. Meteorological measurements provided the input for the simulations. Snow accumulation and melt were not simulated in forest stands because interception of precipitation processes are too complex to simulate with a numerical model without making simplifying assumptions. Such a model, however, would need to be extensively tested against representative observations, which were not available for this study. Snowmelt simulated during three rain-on-snow events (measured in a previous study in a clearcut in the transient-snow zone of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon) demonstrated that melt generation is most sensitive to turbulent- energy exchanges between the air and the snowpack surface. As a result, the most important climate variable that controls snowmelt is wind speed. Air temperature, however, is a significant variable also. The wind speeds were light, with a maximum of 3.3 meters per second during one event and average wind speeds for all three events ranging from 1.7 to 2.1 meters per second. For observed and estimated conditions, the average simulated snowmelt ranged from 0.2 to 0.8 millimeter liquid water per hour, and turbulent-energy exchange provided 51 percent of the energy that led to snowmelt during the largest of the three rain-on-snow events. When wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 4, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.0 to 2.5 millimeters per hour. Similarly, when wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 6, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.6 to 3.7 millimeters per hour. Turbulent-energy exchange provided a dominant 88 and 92 percent of the energy input to the snowpack during the largest rain-on-snow event when average wind speeds were multiplied by factors of 4 and 6, respectively. During the same event, the contribution to melt by the sum of net solar and net thermal radiation (net all-wave radiation) was roughly equal to the contribution of sensible energy carried by the precipitation itself (advective heat). Estimates of snowmelt resulting from rain on snow for climate conditions other than those observed and estimated in the simulated plot-scale data were expanded by simulating snowmelt for 24-hour presumed rain-on-snow events extracted from the reconstructed, long-term historical climate records for Cedar Lake and Snoqualmie Pass National Weather Service stations in Washington State. The selected events exceeded 75 millimeters of precipitation in 24 hours. When clearcut conditions were assumed to be identical to those at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest site and a ripe snowpack that never completely melted was assumed to be available, simulated 24-hour snowmelt ranged from 4.2 to 47.0 millimeters (0.2 to 2.0 millimeters per hour) for low wind speeds (1.5 meters per second) and from 10.3 to 178.8 millimeters (0.4 to 7.5 millimeters per hour) for high wind speeds (8.2 meters per second). The ranges in

From terrestrial to aquatic fluxes: Integrating stream dynamics within a dynamic global vegetation modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Jerad; Poulter, Benjamin; Emmett, Kristen; Cross, Molly; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Maneta, Marco

2016-04-01

Integrated terrestrial ecosystem models simulate the dynamics and feedbacks between climate, vegetation, disturbance, and hydrology and are used to better understand biogeography and biogeochemical cycles. Extending dynamic vegetation models to the aquatic interface requires coupling surface and sub-surface runoff to catchment routing schemes and has the potential to enhance how researchers and managers investigate how changes in the environment might impact the availability of water resources for human and natural systems. In an effort towards creating such a coupled model, we developed catchment-based hydrologic routing and stream temperature model to pair with LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic global vegetation model. LPJ-GUESS simulates detailed stand-level vegetation dynamics such as growth, carbon allocation, and mortality, as well as various physical and hydrologic processes such as canopy interception and through-fall, and can be applied at small spatial scales, i.e., 1 km. We demonstrate how the coupled model can be used to investigate the effects of transient vegetation dynamics and CO2 on seasonal and annual stream discharge and temperature regimes. As a direct management application, we extend the modeling framework to predict habitat suitability for fish habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a 200,000 km2 region that provides critical habitat for a range of aquatic species. The model is used to evaluate, quantitatively, the effects of management practices aimed to enhance hydrologic resilience to climate change, and benefits for water storage and fish habitat in the coming century.

Assessing the groundwater fortunes of aquifers in the White Volta Basin, Ghana: An application of numerical groundwater flow modeling and isotopic studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oteng, F. M.; Yidana, S. M.; Alo, C. A.

2012-12-01

Effective development and informed management of groundwater resources represent a critical opportunity for improved rural water supply in Ghana and enhanced livelihoods particularly in the northern part of the White Volta Basin, a region already prone to a myriad of water-related infirmities. If adequately developed, the resource will form a sufficient buffer against the effects of climate change/variability and foster food security and sustainable livelihoods among the largely peasant communities in the region. This research presents the results of a preliminary assessment of the hydrogeological conditions and recharge regimes of the aquifers in the Northern parts of the White Volta Basin, Ghana. Results of estimates of groundwater recharge through the conventional isotopic and mass balance techniques are presented. Details of the groundwater flow pattern and preliminary delineation of local and regional groundwater recharge areas are presented from initial simulations of the hydrogeological system with a robust groundwater flow simulation code, MODFLOW, in the Groundwater Modeling System, GMS, version 7.1. The stream flow and evapotranspiration components of the program were activated to incorporate surface flow processes, so that the resulting model represents the conditions of the entire hydrological system. The results of this study form a platform for detailed numerical assessment of the conditions of the aquifers in the area under transient conditions of fluctuating rainfall patterns in the face of climate change/variability.

Changes in the Dynamics of Foliar N Metabolites in Oak Saplings by Drought and Air Warming Depend on Species and Soil Type

PubMed Central

Hu, Bin; Simon, Judy; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Arend, Matthias; Kuster, Thomas M.; Rennenberg, Heinz

2015-01-01

Climate change poses direct or indirect influences on physiological mechanisms in plants. In particular, long living plants like trees have to cope with the predicted climate changes (i.e. drought and air warming) during their life span. The present study aimed to quantify the consequences of simulated climate change for foliar N metabolites over a drought-rewetting-drought course. Saplings of three Central European oak species (i.e. Quercus robur, Q. petraea, Q. pubescens) were tested on two different soil types (i.e. acidic and calcareous). Consecutive drought periods increased foliar amino acid-N and soluble protein-N concentrations at the expense of structural N in all three oak species. In addition, transient effects on foliar metabolite dynamics were observed over the drought-rewetting-drought course. The lowest levels of foliar soluble protein-N, amino acid-N and potassium cation with a minor response to drought and air warming were found in the oak species originating from the driest/warmest habitat (Q. pubescens) compared to Q. robur and Q. petraea. Higher foliar osmolyte-N and potassium under drought and air warming were observed in all oak species when grown on calcareous versus acidic soil. These results indicate that species-specific differences in physiological mechanisms to compensate drought and elevated temperature are modified by soil acidity. PMID:25961713

Evaluating transient performance of servo mechanisms by analysing stator current of PMSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Tan, Luyao; Xu, Guanghua

2018-02-01

Smooth running and rapid response are the desired performance goals for the transient motions of servo mechanisms. Because of the uncertain and unobservable transient behaviour of servo mechanisms, it is difficult to evaluate their transient performance. Under the effects of electromechanical coupling, the stator current signals of a permanent-magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) potentially contain the performance information regarding servo mechanisms in use. In this paper, a novel method based on analysing the stator current of the PMSM is proposed for quantifying the transient performance. First, a vector control model is constructed to simulate the stator current behaviour in the transient processes of consecutive speed changes, consecutive load changes, and intermittent start-stops. It is discovered that the amplitude and frequency of the stator current are modulated by the transient load torque and motor speed, respectively. The stator currents under different performance conditions are also simulated and compared. Then, the stator current is processed using a local means decomposition (LMD) algorithm to extract the instantaneous amplitude and instantaneous frequency. The sample entropy of the instantaneous amplitude, which reflects the complexity of the load torque variation, is calculated as a performance indicator of smooth running. The peak-to-peak value of the instantaneous frequency, which defines the range of the motor speed variation, is set as a performance indicator of rapid response. The proposed method is applied to both simulated data in an intermittent start-stops process and experimental data measured for a batch of servo turrets for turning lathes. The results show that the performance evaluations agree with the actual performance.

Numerical analysis of multicomponent responses of surface-hole transient electromagnetic method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Qing-Xin; Hu, Xiang-Yun; Pan, He-Ping; Zhou, Feng

2017-03-01

We calculate the multicomponent responses of surface-hole transient electromagnetic method. The methods and models are unsuitable as geoelectric models of conductive surrounding rocks because they are based on regular local targets. We also propose a calculation and analysis scheme based on numerical simulations of the subsurface transient electromagnetic fields. In the modeling of the electromagnetic fields, the forward modeling simulations are performed by using the finite-difference time-domain method and the discrete image method, which combines the Gaver-Stehfest inverse Laplace transform with the Prony method to solve the initial electromagnetic fields. The precision in the iterative computations is ensured by using the transmission boundary conditions. For the response analysis, we customize geoelectric models consisting of near-borehole targets and conductive wall rocks and implement forward modeling simulations. The observed electric fields are converted into induced electromotive force responses using multicomponent observation devices. By comparing the transient electric fields and multicomponent responses under different conditions, we suggest that the multicomponent-induced electromotive force responses are related to the horizontal and vertical gradient variations of the transient electric field at different times. The characteristics of the response are determined by the varying the subsurface transient electromagnetic fields, i.e., diffusion, attenuation and distortion, under different conditions as well as the electromagnetic fields at the observation positions. The calculation and analysis scheme of the response consider the surrounding rocks and the anomalous field of the local targets. It therefore can account for the geological data better than conventional transient field response analysis of local targets.

Radiation-Induced Transient Effects in Near Infrared Focal Plane Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, Robert A.; Pickel, J.; Marshall, P.; Waczynski, A.; McMurray, R.; Gee, G.; Polidan, E.; Johnson, S.; McKeivey, M.; Ennico, K.;

Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; He, Feng; Lifton, Nathaniel A; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

2015-08-21

The ongoing retreat of glaciers globally is one of the clearest manifestations of recent global warming associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. By comparison, the importance of greenhouse gases in driving glacier retreat during the most recent deglaciation, the last major interval of global warming, is unclear due to uncertainties in the timing of retreat around the world. Here we use recently improved cosmogenic-nuclide production-rate calibrations to recalculate the ages of 1,116 glacial boulders from 195 moraines that provide broad coverage of retreat in mid-to-low-latitude regions. This revised history, in conjunction with transient climate model simulations, suggests that while several regional-scale forcings, including insolation, ice sheets and ocean circulation, modulated glacier responses regionally, they are unable to account for global-scale retreat, which is most likely related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Recent drying of the Fertile Crescent: natural or externally forced?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Colin

2014-05-01

There has been a reduction in observed precipitation over the greater Mediterranean region since the middle of the 20th Century. Recent studies suggest that while anthropogenic forcing has already begun to assert itself in recent decades, the preponderance of the winter drying trend is attributable to the large natural multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while over the eastern Mediterranean, the anthropogenic, or forced drying signal is more clearly evident. This forced drying is projected to increase during the 21st Century according to the newest global climate models and this aridification would present significant challenges for a region that is already water-stressed. Although the Fertile Crescent is historically known for its agricultural prosperity, the severity and persistence of the recent multiyear drought in Syria, directly prior to the 2011 uprising there, leads us to ask whether this is evidence of emerging global warming influence. This drought exacerbated existing water insecurity, resulting in an agricultural collapse and a mass migration of rural drought refugees to the urban areas in Syria's west. This migration followed the previous influx of Iragi refugees and combined with strong natural population growth to place a severe strain on resources. Here we examine observations of precipitation and temperature, both gridded and stations, along with simulations and projections from the newest global climate models, to estimate the forced contribution to the recent Syrian drought, and assess the uncertainty in future drying according to the models. We find that this region has experienced a long-term downward trend in precipitation, and a concomitant increase in temperature, serving to further dry the soil, and in surface pressure. We find that the shift in the distributions of three-year running means of surface pressure and precipitation due to the forcing make severe events such as the recent Syrian drought several times more likely. Next we examine the moisture budget in the models and compare with the ground truth of atmospheric reanalyses to determine the relative contributions from the mean flow and the transient eddies. We find that the mean and transient patterns of moisture budget change over the eastern Mediterranean under forcing resemble the patterns of the NAO-induced moisture budget anomaly, but that over the greater Mediterranean there are distinct differences. Under forced moisture budget change, as noted in a recent study, the mean flow serves to strongly dry the greater Mediterranean, with a smaller contribution from the transients. For the eastern Mediterranean however, the transients oppose the drying by the mean flow, under climate change and under a positive phase of the NAO. These results suggest that anthropogenically forced drying of the Fertile Crescent may already be underway, primarily through a poleward shift in the mean flow, and represent a step forward toward a better understanding of the mechanisms associated with eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate change and variability and how they compare.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Tripathi, Om P.; Colette, Augustin; Vautard, Robert; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Bessagnet, Bertrand

2013-05-01

In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional "climate modeling" source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

Computer simulation of magnetization-controlled shunt reactors for calculating electromagnetic transients in power systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karpov, A. S.

2013-01-15

A computer procedure for simulating magnetization-controlled dc shunt reactors is described, which enables the electromagnetic transients in electric power systems to be calculated. It is shown that, by taking technically simple measures in the control system, one can obtain high-speed reactors sufficient for many purposes, and dispense with the use of high-power devices for compensating higher harmonic components.

Vegetation and land carbon feedbacks in the high-resolution transient Holocene simulations using the MPI Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, Victor; Lorenz, Stephan; Raddatz, Thomas

2017-04-01

Plants influence climate through changes in the land surface biophysics (albedo, transpiration) and concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases. One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon due to productivity decrease. This decadal- scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies. Members of the Hamburg Holocene Team: Jürgen Bader1, Sebastian Bathiany2, Victor Brovkin1, Martin Claussen1,3, Traute Crüger1, Roberta D'agostino1, Anne Dallmeyer1, Sabine Egerer1, Vivienne Groner1, Matthias Heinze1, Tatiana Ilyina1, Johann Jungclaus1, Thomas Kleinen1, Alexander Lemburg1, Stephan Lorenz1, Thomas Raddatz1, Hauke Schmidt1, Gerhard Schmiedl3, Bjorn Stevens1, Claudia Timmreck1, Matthew Toohey4 1Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, D 2Wageningen University, NL 3CEN, Universität Hamburg, D 4GEOMAR Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, D

Climate Adaptation Capacity for Conventional Drinking Water Treatment Facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, A.; Goodrich, J.; Yang, J.

2013-12-01

Water supplies are vulnerable to a host of climate- and weather-related stressors such as droughts, intense storms/flooding, snowpack depletion, sea level changes, and consequences from fires, landslides, and excessive heat or cold. Surface water resources (lakes, reservoirs, rivers, and streams) are especially susceptible to weather-induced changes in water availability and quality. The risks to groundwater systems may also be significant. Typically, water treatment facilities are designed with an underlying assumption that water quality from a given source is relatively predictable based on historical data. However, increasing evidence of the lack of stationarity is raising questions about the validity of traditional design assumptions, particularly since the service life of many facilities can exceed fifty years. Given that there are over 150,000 public water systems in the US that deliver drinking water to over 300 million people every day, it is important to evaluate the capacity for adapting to the impacts of a changing climate. Climate and weather can induce or amplify changes in physical, chemical, and biological water quality, reaction rates, the extent of water-sediment-air interactions, and also impact the performance of treatment technologies. The specific impacts depend on the watershed characteristics and local hydrological and land-use factors. Water quality responses can be transient, such as erosion-induced increases in sediment and runoff. Longer-term impacts include changes in the frequency and intensity of algal blooms, gradual changes in the nature and concentration of dissolved organic matter, dissolved solids, and modulation of the microbiological community structure, sources and survival of pathogens. In addition, waterborne contaminants associated with municipal, industrial, and agricultural activities can also impact water quality. This presentation evaluates relationships between climate and weather induced water quality variability and the capacity of treatment facilities and supporting water infrastructure to deliver safe drinking water consistently and reliably. Simulation models of water treatment facilities are used to evaluate the outcome of specific source water quality scenarios on treatment system performance and reliability. Modeling results are used to evaluate the process and operational capacity to respond to transient water quality changes and adapt to longer-term variability in water quality and availability. In some cases, changes in temperature and mineral content serve to improve the overall treatment performance. In addition, the integration of microbially enhanced treatment systems such as biological filtration can provide additional capacity. Conversely, changes in the nutrient and temperature dynamics can trigger algal and cyanobacterial blooms that can impair performance. Research needs are identified and the importance of developing more integrated modeling systems is highlighted.

Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates melting of sea ice. Hence, the change in seasonality and the associated change in feedback strength is an integral part of the positive surface albedo feedback leading to Arctic amplification and diminishing sea ice cover in the next century when global climate warms.

Transient Simulation of the Multi-SERTTA Experiment with MAMMOTH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortensi, Javier; Baker, Benjamin; Wang, Yaqi

This work details the MAMMOTH reactor physics simulations of the Static Environment Rodlet Transient Test Apparatus (SERTTA) conducted at Idaho National Laboratory in FY-2017. TREAT static-environment experiment vehicles are being developed to enable transient testing of Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) type fuel specimens, including fuel concepts with enhanced accident tolerance (Accident Tolerant Fuels, ATF). The MAMMOTH simulations include point reactor kinetics as well as spatial dynamics for a temperature-limited transient. The strongly coupled multi-physics solutions of the neutron flux and temperature fields are second order accurate both in the spatial and temporal domains. MAMMOTH produces pellet stack powers that are within 1.5% of the Monte Carlo reference solutions. Some discrepancies between the MCNP model used in the design of the flux collars and the Serpent/MAMMOTH models lead to higher power and energy deposition values in Multi-SERTTA unit 1. The TREAT core results compare well with the safety case computed with point reactor kinetics in RELAP5-3D. The reactor period is 44 msec, which corresponds to a reactivity insertion of 2.685% delta k/kmore » $. The peak core power in the spatial dynamics simulation is 431 MW, which the point kinetics model over-predicts by 12%. The pulse width at half the maximum power is 0.177 sec. Subtle transient effects are apparent at the beginning insertion in the experimental samples due to the control rod removal. Additional difference due to transient effects are observed in the sample powers and enthalpy. The time dependence of the power coupling factor (PCF) is calculated for the various fuel stacks of the Multi-SERTTA vehicle. Sample temperatures in excess of 3100 K, the melting point UO$$_2$$, are computed with the adiabatic heat transfer model. The planned shaped-transient might introduce additional effects that cannot be predicted with PRK models. Future modeling will be focused on the shaped-transient by improving the control rod models in MAMMOTH and adding the BISON thermo-elastic models and thermal-fluids heat transfer.« less

Understanding uncertainty in precipitation changes in a balanced perturbed-physics ensemble under multiple climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Lowe, J.

2013-12-01

Temperature and precipitation patterns are the climate variables with the greatest impacts on both natural and human systems. Due to the small spatial scales and the many interactions involved in the global hydrological cycle, in general circulation models (GCMs) representations of precipitation changes are subject to considerable uncertainty. Quantifying and understanding the causes of uncertainty (and identifying robust features of predictions) in both global and local precipitation change is an essential challenge of climate science. We have used the huge distributed computing capacity of the climateprediction.net citizen science project to examine parametric uncertainty in an ensemble of 20,000 perturbed-physics versions of the HadCM3 general circulation model. The ensemble has been selected to have a control climate in top-of-atmosphere energy balance [Yamazaki et al. 2013, J.G.R.]. We force this ensemble with several idealised climate-forcing scenarios including carbon dioxide step and transient profiles, solar radiation management geoengineering experiments with stratospheric aerosols, and short-lived climate forcing agents. We will present the results from several of these forcing scenarios under GCM parametric uncertainty. We examine the global mean precipitation energy budget to understand the robustness of a simple non-linear global precipitation model [Good et al. 2012, Clim. Dyn.] as a better explanation of precipitation changes in transient climate projections under GCM parametric uncertainty than a simple linear tropospheric energy balance model. We will also present work investigating robust conclusions about precipitation changes in a balanced ensemble of idealised solar radiation management scenarios [Kravitz et al. 2011, Atmos. Sci. Let.].

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

2013-01-01

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft3/s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft3/s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft3/s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft3/s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

Waterhammer Transient Simulation and Model Anchoring for the Robotic Lunar Lander Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stein, William B.; Trinh, Huu P.; Reynolds, Michael E.; Sharp, David J.

2011-01-01

Waterhammer transients have the potential to adversely impact propulsion system design if not properly addressed. Waterhammer can potentially lead to system plumbing, and component damage. Multi-thruster propulsion systems also develop constructive/destructive wave interference which becomes difficult to predict without detailed models. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently characterize propulsion system waterhammer in order to develop a robust design with minimal impact to other systems. A risk reduction activity was performed at Marshall Space Flight Center to develop a tool for estimating waterhammer through the use of anchored simulation for the Robotic Lunar Lander (RLL) propulsion system design. Testing was performed to simulate waterhammer surges due to rapid valve closure and consisted of twenty-two series of waterhammer tests, resulting in more than 300 valve actuations. These tests were performed using different valve actuation schemes and three system pressures. Data from the valve characterization tests were used to anchor the models that employed MSCSoftware.EASY5 v.2010 to model transient fluid phenomena by using transient forms of mass and energy conservation. The anchoring process was performed by comparing initial model results to experimental data and then iterating the model input to match the simulation results with the experimental data. The models provide good correlation with experimental results, supporting the use of EASY5 as a tool to model fluid transients and provide a baseline for future RLL system modeling. This paper addresses tasks performed during the waterhammer risk reduction activity for the RLL propulsion system. The problem of waterhammer simulation anchoring as applied to the RLL system is discussed with results from the corresponding experimental valve tests. Important factors for waterhammer mitigation are discussed along with potential design impacts to the RLL propulsion system.

Influences of brain tissue poroelastic constants on intracranial pressure (ICP) during constant-rate infusion.

PubMed

Li, Xiaogai; von Holst, Hans; Kleiven, Svein

2013-01-01

A 3D finite element (FE) model has been developed to study the mean intracranial pressure (ICP) response during constant-rate infusion using linear poroelasticity. Due to the uncertainties in the poroelastic constants for brain tissue, the influence of each of the main parameters on the transient ICP infusion curve was studied. As a prerequisite for transient analysis, steady-state simulations were performed first. The simulated steady-state pressure distribution in the brain tissue for a normal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) circulation system showed good correlation with experiments from the literature. Furthermore, steady-state ICP closely followed the infusion experiments at different infusion rates. The verified steady-state models then served as a baseline for the subsequent transient models. For transient analysis, the simulated ICP shows a similar tendency to that found in the experiments, however, different values of the poroelastic constants have a significant effect on the infusion curve. The influence of the main poroelastic parameters including the Biot coefficient α, Skempton coefficient B, drained Young's modulus E, Poisson's ratio ν, permeability κ, CSF absorption conductance C(b) and external venous pressure p(b) was studied to investigate the influence on the pressure response. It was found that the value of the specific storage term S(ε) is the dominant factor that influences the infusion curve, and the drained Young's modulus E was identified as the dominant parameter second to S(ε). Based on the simulated infusion curves from the FE model, artificial neural network (ANN) was used to find an optimised parameter set that best fit the experimental curve. The infusion curves from both the FE simulation and using ANN confirmed the limitation of linear poroelasticity in modelling the transient constant-rate infusion.

The suitability of a simplified isotope-balance approach to quantify transient groundwater-lake interactions over a decade with climatic extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sacks, Laura A.; Lee, Terrie M.; Swancar, Amy

2013-01-01

Groundwater inflow to a subtropical seepage lake was estimated using a transient isotope-balance approach for a decade (2001–2011) with wet and dry climatic extremes. Lake water δ18O ranged from +0.80 to +3.48 ‰, reflecting the 4 m range in stage. The transient δ18O analysis discerned large differences in semiannual groundwater inflow, and the overall patterns of low and high groundwater inflow were consistent with an independent water budget. Despite simplifying assumptions that the isotopic composition of precipitation (δP), groundwater inflow, and atmospheric moisture (δA) were constant, groundwater inflow was within the water-budget error for 12 of the 19 semiannual calculation periods. The magnitude of inflow was over or under predicted during periods of climatic extreme. During periods of high net precipitation from tropical cyclones and El Niño conditions, δP values were considerably more depleted in 18O than assumed. During an extreme dry period, δA values were likely more enriched in 18O than assumed due to the influence of local lake evaporate. Isotope balance results were most sensitive to uncertainties in relative humidity, evaporation, and δ18O of lake water, which can limit precise quantification of groundwater inflow. Nonetheless, the consistency between isotope-balance and water-budget results indicates that this is a viable approach for lakes in similar settings, allowing the magnitude of groundwater inflow to be estimated over less-than-annual time periods. Because lake-water δ18O is a good indicator of climatic conditions, these data could be useful in ground-truthing paleoclimatic reconstructions using isotopic data from lake cores in similar settings.

Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanou, Anastasia; Marshall, John

2015-01-01

Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.

A transient simulation approach to obtaining capacitance-voltage characteristics of GaN MOS capacitors with deep-level traps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Koichi; Asai, Hidehiro; Hattori, Junichi; Shimizu, Mitsuaki; Hashizume, Tamotsu

2018-04-01

In this study, GaN MOS capacitance-voltage device simulations considering various interface and bulk traps are performed in the transient mode. The simulations explain various features of capacitance-voltage curves, such as plateau, hysteresis, and frequency dispersions, which are commonly observed in measurements of GaN MOS capacitors and arise from complicated combinations of interface and bulk deep-level traps. The objective of the present study is to provide a good theoretical tool to understand the physics of various nonideal measured curves.

Untangling climate signals from autogenic changes in long-term peatland development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Paul J.; Baird, Andy J.; Young, Dylan M.; Swindles, Graeme T.

2015-12-01

Peatlands represent important archives of Holocene paleoclimatic information. However, autogenic processes may disconnect peatland hydrological behavior from climate and overwrite climatic signals in peat records. We use a simulation model of peatland development driven by a range of Holocene climate reconstructions to investigate climate signal preservation in peat records. Simulated water-table depths and peat decomposition profiles exhibit homeostatic recovery from prescribed changes in rainfall, whereas changes in temperature cause lasting alterations to peatland structure and function. Autogenic ecohydrological feedbacks provide both high- and low-pass filters for climatic information, particularly rainfall. Large-magnitude climatic changes of an intermediate temporal scale (i.e., multidecadal to centennial) are most readily preserved in our simulated peat records. Simulated decomposition signals are offset from the climatic changes that generate them due to a phenomenon known as secondary decomposition. Our study provides the mechanistic foundations for a framework to separate climatic and autogenic signals in peat records.

Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

2012-01-01

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

Experiments in sensing transient rotational acceleration cues on a flight simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, R. V.

1979-01-01

Results are presented for two transient motion sensing experiments which were motivated by the identification of an anomalous roll cue (a 'jerk' attributed to an acceleration spike) in a prior investigation of realistic fighter motion simulation. The experimental results suggest the consideration of several issues for motion washout and challenge current sensory system modeling efforts. Although no sensory modeling effort is made it is argued that such models must incorporate the ability to handle transient inputs of short duration (some of which are less than the accepted latency times for sensing), and must represent separate channels for rotational acceleration and velocity sensing.

Regional business cycle synchronization through expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onozaki, Tamotsu; Yanagita, Tatsuo; Kaizoji, Taisei; Toyabe, Kazutaka

2007-09-01

This paper provides an example in which regional business cycles may synchronize via producers’ expectations, even though there is no interregional trade, by means of a system of globally coupled, noninvertible maps. We concentrate on the dependence of the dynamics on a parameter η which denotes the inverse of price elasticity of demand. Simulation results show that several phases (the short transient, the complete asynchronous, the long transient and the intermediate transient) appear one after another as η increases. In the long transient phase, the intermittent clustering process with a long chaotic transient appears repeatedly.

Space Shuttle Projects

NASA Image and Video Library

1987-07-01

A forward segment is being lowered into the Transient Pressure Test Article (TPTA) test stand at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) east test area. The TPTA test stand, 14-feet wide, 27-feet long, and 33-feet high, was built in 1987 to provide data to verify the sealing capability of the redesign solid rocket motor (SRM) field and nozzle joints. The test facility applies pressure, temperature, and external loads to a short stack of solid rocket motor hardware. The simulated SRM ignition pressure and temperature transients are achieved by firing a small amount of specially configured solid propellant. The pressure transient is synchronized with external programmable dynamic loads that simulate lift off loads at the external tank attach points. Approximately one million pounds of dead weight on top of the test article simulates the weight of the other Shuttle elements.

Space Shuttle Projects

NASA Image and Video Library

1987-07-01

A forward segment is being lowered into the Transient Pressure Test Article (TPTA) test stand at thw Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) east test area. The TPTA test stand, 14-feet wide, 27-feet long, and 33-feet high, was built in 1987 to provide data to verify the sealing capability of the redesign solid rocket motor (SRM) field and nozzle joints. The test facility applies pressure, temperature, and external loads to a short stack of solid rocket motor hardware. The simulated SRM ignition pressure and temperature transients are achieved by firing a small amount of specially configured solid propellant. The pressure transient is synchronized with external programmable dynamic loads that simulate lift off loads at the external tank attach points. Approximately one million pounds of dead weight on top of the test article simulates the weight of the other Shuttle elements.

Infrared radiation parameterizations for the minor CO2 bands and for several CFC bands in the window region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratz, David P.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Yan, Michael M.-H.

1993-01-01

Fast and accurate parameterizations have been developed for the transmission functions of the CO2 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands, as well as the CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-22 bands located in the 8-12-micron region. The parameterizations are based on line-by-line calculations of transmission functions for the CO2 bands and on high spectral resolution laboratory measurements of the absorption coefficients for the CFC bands. Also developed are the parameterizations for the H2O transmission functions for the corresponding spectral bands. Compared to the high-resolution calculations, fluxes at the tropopause computed with the parameterizations are accurate to within 10 percent when overlapping of gas absorptions within a band is taken into account. For individual gas absorption, the accuracy is of order 0-2 percent. The climatic effects of these trace gases have been studied using a zonally averaged multilayer energy balance model, which includes seasonal cycles and a simplified deep ocean. With the trace gas abundances taken to follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Low Emissions 'B' scenario, the transient response of the surface temperature is simulated for the period 1900-2060.

The influence of tyre transient side force properties on vehicle lateral acceleration for a time-varying vertical force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Toshimichi

2018-05-01

The tyre model which formerly developed by the author et al. and describes the tyre transient responses of side force and aligning moment under the time-varying vertical force was implemented to the vehicle dynamics simulation software and the influence of tyre side force transient property on the vehicle behaviour was investigated. The vehicle responses with/without tyre transient property on sinusoidally undulated road surfaces were simulated and compared. It was found that the average lateral acceleration of the vehicle at the sinusoidal steering wheel angle input decreases on the undulated road of long wavelength (3 m) for both cases, but when the wavelength becomes shorter (1 m), the average lateral acceleration increases only in the case that the transient property is considered. The cause of those changes is explained by using the tyre-related variables. Also the steady-state turning behaviour of the vehicle on undulated roads are shown and discussed.

Tool for the Integrated Dynamic Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS)/Turbine Engine Closed-Loop Transient Analysis (TTECTrA) User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Jeffrey C.; Csank, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

The Tool for Turbine Engine Closed-Loop Transient Analysis (TTECTrA ver2) is a control design tool thatenables preliminary estimation of transient performance for models without requiring a full nonlinear controller to bedesigned. The program is compatible with subsonic engine models implemented in the MATLAB/Simulink (TheMathworks, Inc.) environment and Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) framework. At a specified flightcondition, TTECTrA will design a closed-loop controller meeting user-defined requirements in a semi or fully automatedfashion. Multiple specifications may be provided, in which case TTECTrA will design one controller for each, producing acollection of controllers in a single run. Each resulting controller contains a setpoint map, a schedule of setpointcontroller gains, and limiters; all contributing to transient characteristics. The goal of the program is to providesteady-state engine designers with more immediate feedback on the transient engine performance earlier in the design cycle.

Simulating the Impact of Premixed Charge Compression Ignition on Light-Duty Diesel Fuel Economy and Emissions of Particulates and NOx

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Zhiming; Daw, C Stuart; Wagner, Robert M

2013-01-01

We utilize the Powertrain Systems Analysis Toolkit (PSAT) combined with transient engine and aftertreatment component models implemented in Matlab/Simulink to simulate the effect of premixed charge compression ignition (PCCI) on the fuel economy and emissions of light-duty diesel-powered conventional and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Our simulated engine is capable of both conventional diesel combustion (CDC) and premixed charge compression ignition (PCCI) over real transient driving cycles. Our simulated aftertreatment train consists of a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), lean NOx trap (LNT), and catalyzed diesel particulate filter (DPF). The results demonstrate that, in the simulated conventional vehicle, PCCI can significantly reducemore » fuel consumption and emissions by reducing the need for LNT and DPF regeneration. However, the opportunity for PCCI operation in the simulated HEV is limited because the engine typically experiences higher loads and multiple stop-start transients that are outside the allowable PCCI operating range. Thus developing ways of extending the PCCI operating range combined with improved control strategies for engine and emissions control management will be especially important for realizing the potential benefits of PCCI in HEVs.« less

An Investigation of the Ability to Recover from Transients Following Failures for Single-Pilot Rotorcraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mansur, M. Hossein; Schroeder, Jeffery A.

1988-01-01

A moving-base simulation was conducted to investigate a pilot's ability to recover from transients following single-axis hard-over failures of the flight-control system. The investigation was performed in conjunction with a host simulation that examined the influence of control modes on a single pilot's ability to perform various mission elements under high-workload conditions. The NASA Ames large-amplitude-motion Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) was utilized, and the experimental variables were the failure axis, the severity of the failure, and the airspeed at which the failure occurred. Other factors, such as pilot workload and terrain and obstacle proximity at the time of failure, were kept as constant as possible within the framework of the host simulation task scenarios. No explicit failure warnings were presented to the pilot. Data from the experiment are shown, and pilot ratings are compared with the proposed handling-qualities requirements for military rotorcraft. Results indicate that the current proposed failure transient requirements may need revision.

Numerical Simulation of Roughness-Induced Transient Growth in a Laminar Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, Paul; Choudhari, Meelan

2004-01-01

Numerical simulations are used to examine the roughness-induced transient growth in a laminar boundary-layer flow. Based on the spectral element method, these simulations model the stationary disturbance field associated with a nonsmooth roughness geometry, such as the spanwise periodic array of circular disks used by White and co-workers during a series of wind tunnel experiments at Case Western Reserve University. Besides capturing the major trends from the recent measurements by White and Ergin, the simulations provide additional information concerning the relative accuracy of the experimental findings derived from two separate wall-finding procedures. The paper also explores the dependence of transient growth on geometric characteristics of the roughness distribution, including the height and planform shape of the roughness element and the ratio of roughness due to spacing between an adjacent pair of elements. Results are used for a preliminary assessment of the differences between recently reported theoretical results of Tumin and Reshotko and the measurements by White and Ergin.

Transient simulation of a miniature Joule-Thomson (J-T) cryocooler with and without the distributed J-T effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damle, R. M.; Atrey, M. D.

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to develop a transient program for the simulation of a miniature Joule-Thomson (J-T) cryocooler to predict its cool-down characteristics. A one dimensional transient model is formulated for the fluid streams and the solid elements of the recuperative heat exchanger. Variation of physical properties due to pressure and temperature is considered. In addition to the J-T expansion at the end of the finned tube, the distributed J-T effect along its length is also considered. It is observed that the distributed J-T effect leads to additional cooling of the gas in the finned tube and that it cannot be neglected when the pressure drop along the length of the finned tube is large. The mathematical model, method of resolution and the global transient algorithm, within a modular object-oriented framework, are detailed in this paper. As a part of verification and validation of the developed model, cases available in the literature are simulated and the results are compared with the corresponding numerical and experimental data.

Analysis of internal flows relative to the space shuttle main engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

Cooperative efforts between the Lockheed-Huntsville Computational Mechanics Group and the NASA-MSFC Computational Fluid Dynamics staff has resulted in improved capabilities for numerically simulating incompressible flows generic to the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). A well established and documented CFD code was obtained, modified, and applied to laminar and turbulent flows of the type occurring in the SSME Hot Gas Manifold. The INS3D code was installed on the NASA-MSFC CRAY-XMP computer system and is currently being used by NASA engineers. Studies to perform a transient analysis of the FPB were conducted. The COBRA/TRAC code is recommended for simulating the transient flow of oxygen into the LOX manifold. Property data for modifying the code to represent LOX/GOX flow was collected. The ALFA code was developed and recommended for representing the transient combustion in the preburner. These two codes will couple through the transient boundary conditions to simulate the startup and/or shutdown of the fuel preburner. A study, NAS8-37461, is currently being conducted to implement this modeling effort.

Mass and tracer transport within oceanic Lagrangian coherent vortices as diagnosed in a global mesoscale eddying climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarshish, Nathaniel; Abernathey, Ryan; Dufour, Carolina; Frenger, Ivy; Griffies, Stephen

2017-04-01

Transient ocean mesoscale fluctuations play a central role in the global climate system, transporting climate relevant tracers such as heat and carbon. In satellite observations and numerical simulations, mesoscale vortices feature prominently as collectively rotating regions that remain visibly coherent. Prior studies on transport from ocean vortices typically rely on Eulerian identification methods, in which vortices are identified by selecting closed contours of Eulerian fields (e.g. sea surface height, or the Okubo-Weiss parameter) that satisfy geometric criteria and anomaly thresholds. In contrast, recent studies employ Lagrangian analysis of virtual particle trajectories initialized within the selected Eulerian contours, revealing significant discrepancies between the advection of the contour's material interior and the evolution of the Eulerian field contour. This work investigates the global mass and tracer transport associated with materially coherent surface ocean vortices. Further, it addresses differences between Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses for the detection of vortices. To do so, we use GFDL's CM2.6 coupled climate model with 5-10km horizontal grid spacing. We identify coherent vortices in CM2.6 by implementing the Rotationally Coherent Lagrangian Vortex (RCLV) framework, which recently emerged from dynamical systems theory. This approach involves the numerical advection of millions of Lagrangian particles and guarantees material coherence by construction. We compute the statistics, spatial distribution, and lifetimes of coherent vortices in addition to calculating the associated mass and tracer transports. We offer compelling evidence that Eulerian vortex methods are poorly suited to answer questions of mass and tracer transport.

Measurement of Turbine Engine Transient Airflow in Ground Test Facilities

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-08-01

REPORT NUMBER 12 GOVT ACCESSION NO. A E D C - T R - 8 0 - 2 1 L 6. T I T L E (aqd Subl l l |e ) MEASUREMENT OF TURBINE ENGINE TRANSIENT AIRFLOW IN...21 ILLUSTRATIONS Figure !. Direct-Connect Turbine Engine Test Cell Installation...26 3. Turbine Engine Transient Airflow Simulator (TETAS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4

Evaluation of the new EMAC-SWIFT chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheffler, Janice; Langematz, Ulrike; Wohltmann, Ingo; Rex, Markus

2016-04-01

It is well known that the representation of atmospheric ozone chemistry in weather and climate models is essential for a realistic simulation of the atmospheric state. Including atmospheric ozone chemistry into climate simulations is usually done by prescribing a climatological ozone field, by including a fast linear ozone scheme into the model or by using a climate model with complex interactive chemistry. While prescribed climatological ozone fields are often not aligned with the modelled dynamics, a linear ozone scheme may not be applicable for a wide range of climatological conditions. Although interactive chemistry provides a realistic representation of atmospheric chemistry such model simulations are computationally very expensive and hence not suitable for ensemble simulations or simulations with multiple climate change scenarios. A new approach to represent atmospheric chemistry in climate models which can cope with non-linearities in ozone chemistry and is applicable to a wide range of climatic states is the Semi-empirical Weighted Iterative Fit Technique (SWIFT) that is driven by reanalysis data and has been validated against observational satellite data and runs of a full Chemistry and Transport Model. SWIFT has recently been implemented into the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) chemistry climate model that uses a modular approach to climate modelling where individual model components can be switched on and off. Here, we show first results of EMAC-SWIFT simulations and validate these against EMAC simulations using the complex interactive chemistry scheme MECCA, and against observations.

Impact of transient soil water simulation to estimated nitrogen leaching and emission at high- and low-deposition forest sites in southern California

Treesearch

Yuan Yuan; Thomas Meixner; Mark E. Fenn; Jirka Simunek

2011-01-01

Soil water dynamics and drainage are key abiotic factors controlling losses of atmospherically deposited N in Southern California. In this paper soil N leaching and trace gaseous emissions simulated by the DAYCENT biogeochemical model using its original semi‐dynamic water flow module were compared to that coupled with a finite element transient water flow...

Transient Dynamics Simulation of Airflow in a CT-Scanned Human Airway Tree: More or Fewer Terminal Bronchi?

PubMed Central

Zhang, Baihua; Li, Jianhua; Yue, Yong; Qian, Wei

2017-01-01

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method, the feasibility of simulating transient airflow in a CT-based airway tree with more than 100 outlets for a whole respiratory period is studied, and the influence of truncations of terminal bronchi on CFD characteristics is investigated. After an airway model with 122 outlets is extracted from CT images, the transient airflow is simulated. Spatial and temporal variations of flow velocity, wall pressure, and wall shear stress are presented; the flow pattern and lobar distribution of air are gotten as well. All results are compared with those of a truncated model with 22 outlets. It is found that the flow pattern shows lobar heterogeneity that the near-wall air in the trachea is inhaled into the upper lobe while the center flow enters the other lobes, and the lobar distribution of air is significantly correlated with the outlet area ratio. The truncation decreases airflow to right and left upper lobes and increases the deviation of airflow distributions between inspiration and expiration. Simulating the transient airflow in an airway tree model with 122 bronchi using CFD is feasible. The model with more terminal bronchi decreases the difference between the lobar distributions at inspiration and at expiration. PMID:29333194

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poutou, E.; Krinner, G.; Genthon, C.

2002-12-01

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate The role of lakes and wetlands in present-day high latitude climate is quantified using a general circulation model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric model includes a lake module which is presented and validated. Seasonal and spatial wetland distribution is calculated as a function of the hydrological budget of the wetlands themselves and of continental soil whose runoff feeds them. Wetland extent is simulated and discussed both in simulations forced by observed climate and in general circulation model simulations. In off-line simulations, forced by ECMWF reanalyses, the lake model simulates correctly observed lake ice durations, while the wetland extent is somewhat underestimated in the boreal regions. Coupled to the general circulation model, the lake model yields satisfying ice durations, although the climate model biases have impacts on the modeled lake ice conditions. Boreal wetland extents are overestimated in the general circulation model as simulated precipitation is too high. The impact of inundated surfaces on the simulated climate is strongest in summer when these surfaces are ice-free. Wetlands seem to play a more important role than lakes in cooling the boreal regions in summer and in humidifying the atmosphere. The role of lakes and wetlands in future climate change is evaluated by analyzing simulations of present and future climate with and without prescribed inland water bodies.

Comparison of Interglacial fire dynamics in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Daniau, Anne-Laure

2016-04-01

Responses of fire activity to a change in climate are still uncertain and biases exist by integrating this non-linear process into global modeling of the Earth system. Warming and regional drying can force fire activity in two opposite directions: an increase in fire in fuel supported ecosystems or a fire reduction in fuel-limited ecosystems. Therefore, climate variables alone can not be used to estimate the fire risk because vegetation variability is an important determinant of fire dynamics and responds itself to change in climate. Southern Africa (south of 20°S) paleofire history reconstruction obtained from the analysis of microcharcoal preserved in a deep-sea core located off Namibia reveals changes of fire activity on orbital timescales in the precession band. In particular, increase in fire is observed during glacial periods, and reduction of fire during interglacials such as the Eemian and the Holocene. The Holocene was characterized by even lower level of fire activity than Eemian. Those results suggest the alternance of grass-fueled fires during glacials driven by increase in moisture and the development of limited fueled ecosystems during interglacials characterized by dryness. Those results question the simulated increase in the fire risk probability projected for this region under a warming and drying climate obtained by Pechony and Schindell (2010). To explore the validity of the hypotheses we conducted a data-model comparison for both interglacials from 126.000 to 115.000 BP for the Eemian and from 8.000 to 2.000 BP for the Holocene. Data out of a transient, global modeling study with a Vegetation-Fire model of full complexity (JSBACH) is used, driven by a Climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER). Climate data like precipitation and temperature as well as vegetation data like soil moisture, productivity (NPP) on plant functional type level are used to explain trends in fire activity. The comparison of trends in fire activity during the Eemian (126.000 to 120.000 BP) and the Holocene (8.000 to 200 BP) shows an increase in fire data and in simulated fire. Lower level of fire during the Holocene than Eemian can be explained by differences due to unequal trends in vegetation as a result of climate forcing due to orbital changes: while woody type vegetation plays a major role during the Eemian, the Holocene is influenced by grass land. From the modelling perspective changes in the seasonal precipitation drives the vegetation pattern.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2009-12-01

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their abilitymore » to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.« less

Effect of Interactive River Routing on North Atlantic Overturning in a Simulation of the last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Meccia, Virna

2017-04-01

One of the major challenges in climate modeling is the simulation of glacial-interglacial transitions. A few models of intermediate complexity have been successful in simulating the last termination. Complex atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) with prescribed ice sheets are able to yield realistic climate changes. Here we present results from our first attempt to simulate a substantial part of the last glacial cycle with an AOGCM coupled interactively with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model. The ECHAM5/MPIOM AOGCM is interactively coupled to the dynamical ice sheet model PISM and the dynamical vegetation model LPJ. The model is integrated from the late Glacial into the Holocene using insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations as transient forcing. To make the long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. The land sea mask remains fixed at the LGM state. River routing and surface elevation are calculated interactively. A mini-ensemble with different initial conditions is performed. Additionally, one fully synchronously simulation, without acceleration in the atmosphere, is run. In all simulations the northern hemisphere deglaciation starts between 18 and 17 kyr BP, consistent with the onset of global warming. The model produces Heinrich event like variability. These rapid ice discharge events have a strong impact on the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (NAMOC). The interactive river routing has a strong impact on the simulated NAMOC during the deglaciation. The retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet together with the depressed topography due to the former ice load leads to a redirection of the river routes.. In particular, the discharge route for runoff from the melting southwestern Laurentide shifts from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic. The consequence is a rapid reduction/suppression of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation. When the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreats from the Hudson Strait, this becomes the new drainage route. Hence, fresh water is released into the Labrador Sea and is less effective in suppressing the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. As a consequence, the NADW formation recovers within a few decades. Our results show the potential importance of interactive river routing for rapid changes in NAMOC strength during the deglaciation.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Trachsel, Mathias; Telford, Richard J.; Laepple, Thomas

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen, foraminifera or chironomids are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that in our model experiments the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We furthermore show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable, such as summer temperatures in the model's Arctic, are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution. Expert knowledge on the ecophysiological drivers of the proxies, as well as statistical methods that go beyond the cross validation on modern calibration datasets, are crucial to avoid misinterpretation.

Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi

The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi etmore » al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO 2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems, biomes, and models. This framework has been successfully implemented by several global land models, such as CABLE (Xia et al., 2013), LPJ-GUESS (Ahlström et al., 2015), CLM (Hararuk et al., 2014; Huang et al., 2017, submitted; Shi et al., 2017, submitted), and ORCHIDEE (Huang et al., 2017, unpublished). Moreover, we have identified the theoretical foundation of the determinants of transient C storage dynamics by adding another term, C storage potential, to the steady-state traceability framework (Luo et al., 2017). The theoretical foundation of transient C storage dynamics has been applied to develop a transient traceability framework to explore the traceable components of transient C storage dynamics responded to the rising CO 2 and climate change in the two contrasting ecosystem types Duke needleleaved forest and Harvard deciduous broadleaved forest (Jiang et al., 2017, in revision). Overall, with the data synthesis, data assimilation techniques, and the steady-state and transient traceability frameworks, we have greatly improved land process models for predicting responses and feedback of terrestrial C dynamics to global change. The matrix approaches has the potential to be applied in theoretical research on nitrogen and phosphorus cycle, and therefore, the coupling of carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus.« less

Incremental dynamical downscaling for probabilistic analysis based on multiple GCM projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakazuki, Y.

2015-12-01

A dynamical downscaling method for probabilistic regional scale climate change projections was developed to cover an uncertainty of multiple general circulation model (GCM) climate simulations. The climatological increments (future minus present climate states) estimated by GCM simulation results were statistically analyzed using the singular vector decomposition. Both positive and negative perturbations from the ensemble mean with the magnitudes of their standard deviations were extracted and were added to the ensemble mean of the climatological increments. The analyzed multiple modal increments were utilized to create multiple modal lateral boundary conditions for the future climate regional climate model (RCM) simulations by adding to an objective analysis data. This data handling is regarded to be an advanced method of the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method previously developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007). The incremental handling for GCM simulations realized approximated probabilistic climate change projections with the smaller number of RCM simulations. Three values of a climatological variable simulated by RCMs for a mode were used to estimate the response to the perturbation of the mode. For the probabilistic analysis, climatological variables of RCMs were assumed to show linear response to the multiple modal perturbations, although the non-linearity was seen for local scale rainfall. Probability of temperature was able to be estimated within two modes perturbation simulations, where the number of RCM simulations for the future climate is five. On the other hand, local scale rainfalls needed four modes simulations, where the number of the RCM simulations is nine. The probabilistic method is expected to be used for regional scale climate change impact assessment in the future.

Highlights of Transient Plume Impingement Model Validation and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woronowicz, Michael

2011-01-01

This paper describes highlights of an ongoing validation effort conducted to assess the viability of applying a set of analytic point source transient free molecule equations to model behavior ranging from molecular effusion to rocket plumes. The validation effort includes encouraging comparisons to both steady and transient studies involving experimental data and direct simulation Monte Carlo results. Finally, this model is applied to describe features of two exotic transient scenarios involving NASA Goddard Space Flight Center satellite programs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epiney, A.; Canepa, S.; Zerkak, O.

The STARS project at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) has adopted the TRACE thermal-hydraulic (T-H) code for best-estimate system transient simulations of the Swiss Light Water Reactors (LWRs). For analyses involving interactions between system and core, a coupling of TRACE with the SIMULATE-3K (S3K) LWR core simulator has also been developed. In this configuration, the TRACE code and associated nuclear power reactor simulation models play a central role to achieve a comprehensive safety analysis capability. Thus, efforts have now been undertaken to consolidate the validation strategy by implementing a more rigorous and structured assessment approach for TRACE applications involving eithermore » only system T-H evaluations or requiring interfaces to e.g. detailed core or fuel behavior models. The first part of this paper presents the preliminary concepts of this validation strategy. The principle is to systematically track the evolution of a given set of predicted physical Quantities of Interest (QoIs) over a multidimensional parametric space where each of the dimensions represent the evolution of specific analysis aspects, including e.g. code version, transient specific simulation methodology and model "nodalisation". If properly set up, such environment should provide code developers and code users with persistent (less affected by user effect) and quantified information (sensitivity of QoIs) on the applicability of a simulation scheme (codes, input models, methodology) for steady state and transient analysis of full LWR systems. Through this, for each given transient/accident, critical paths of the validation process can be identified that could then translate into defining reference schemes to be applied for downstream predictive simulations. In order to illustrate this approach, the second part of this paper presents a first application of this validation strategy to an inadvertent blowdown event that occurred in a Swiss BWR/6. The transient was initiated by the spurious actuation of the Automatic Depressurization System (ADS). The validation approach progresses through a number of dimensions here: First, the same BWR system simulation model is assessed for different versions of the TRACE code, up to the most recent one. The second dimension is the "nodalisation" dimension, where changes to the input model are assessed. The third dimension is the "methodology" dimension. In this case imposed power and an updated TRACE core model are investigated. For each step in each validation dimension, a common set of QoIs are investigated. For the steady-state results, these include fuel temperatures distributions. For the transient part of the present study, the evaluated QoIs include the system pressure evolution and water carry-over into the steam line.« less

Just-in-time Time Data Analytics and Visualization of Climate Simulations using the Bellerophon Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantharaj, V. G.; Venzke, J.; Lingerfelt, E.; Messer, B.

2015-12-01

Climate model simulations are used to understand the evolution and variability of earth's climate. Unfortunately, high-resolution multi-decadal climate simulations can take days to weeks to complete. Typically, the simulation results are not analyzed until the model runs have ended. During the course of the simulation, the output may be processed periodically to ensure that the model is preforming as expected. However, most of the data analytics and visualization are not performed until the simulation is finished. The lengthy time period needed for the completion of the simulation constrains the productivity of climate scientists. Our implementation of near real-time data visualization analytics capabilities allows scientists to monitor the progress of their simulations while the model is running. Our analytics software executes concurrently in a co-scheduling mode, monitoring data production. When new data are generated by the simulation, a co-scheduled data analytics job is submitted to render visualization artifacts of the latest results. These visualization output are automatically transferred to Bellerophon's data server located at ORNL's Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES) where they are processed and archived into Bellerophon's database. During the course of the experiment, climate scientists can then use Bellerophon's graphical user interface to view animated plots and their associated metadata. The quick turnaround from the start of the simulation until the data are analyzed permits research decisions and projections to be made days or sometimes even weeks sooner than otherwise possible! The supercomputer resources used to run the simulation are unaffected by co-scheduling the data visualization jobs, so the model runs continuously while the data are visualized. Our just-in-time data visualization software looks to increase climate scientists' productivity as climate modeling moves into exascale era of computing.

Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Alder, J.R.; Allan, A.M.

2011-01-01

We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs. All simulations span the present (for example, 1968-1999), common periods of the future (2040-2069), and two simulations continuously cover 2010-2099. The trace gas concentrations in our simulations were the same as those of the GCMs: the IPCC 20th century time series for 1968-1999 and the A2 time series for simulations of the future. We demonstrate that RegCM3 is capable of producing present day annual and seasonal climatologies of air temperature and precipitation that are in good agreement with observations. Important features of the high-resolution climatology of temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture are consistently reproduced in all model runs over WNA and ENA. The simulations provide a potential range of future climate change for selected decades and display common patterns of the direction and magnitude of changes. As expected, there are some model to model differences that limit interpretability and give rise to uncertainties. Here, we provide background information about the GCMs and the RegCM3, a basic evaluation of the model output and examples of simulated future climate. We also provide information needed to access the web applications for visualizing and downloading the data, and give complete metadata that describe the variables in the datasets.

Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

2017-04-01

During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

Temporal Evolution of the Plasma Sheath Surrounding Solar Cells in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, Emily M.; Pour, Maria Z. A.

2017-01-01

Initial results from the PIC simulation and the LEM simulation have been presented. The PIC simulation results show that more detailed study is required to refine the ISS solar array current collection model and to understand the development of the current collection in time. The initial results from the LEM demonstrate that is it possible the transients are caused by solar array interaction with the environment, but there are presently too many assumptions in the model to be certain. Continued work on the PIC simulation will provide valuable information on the development of the barrier potential, which will allow refinement the LEM simulation and a better understanding of the causes and effects of the transients.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C. L.; Chang, H. I.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Mazon, J.; Carrillo, C. M.; Adams, D. K.

2015-12-01

The North American monsoon (NAM) is the principal driver of summer severe weather in the Southwest U.S. Monsoon convection typically initiates during daytime over the mountains and may organize into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Most monsoon-related severe weather occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. A convective resolving grid spacing (on the kilometer scale) model is required to explicitly represent the physical characteristics of organized convection, for example the presence of leading convective lines and trailing stratiform precipitation regions. Our objective is to analyze how monsoon severe weather is changing in relation to anthropogenic climate change. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis during a historical period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather event days, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 30h at a convective-permitting scale. Changes in modeled severe weather events indicate increases in precipitation intensity in association with long-term increases in atmospheric instability and moisture, particularly with organized convection downwind of mountain ranges. However, because the frequency of synoptic transients is decreasing during the monsoon, organized convection is less frequent and convective precipitation tends to be more phased locked to terrain. These types of modeled changes also similarly appear in observed CPC precipitation, when the severe weather event days are selected using historical radiosonde data. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future with respect to occurrence and intensity and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring in the historical record. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR) will be included as part of North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liu, Jiandong; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986-2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general circulation models' performance in simulating the mean state of climate over this less-studied climate vulnerable region, with a focus on precipitation. Results indicate that most of the models are unable to reproduce the observed state of climate over Southeast Asia. Though the multi-model ensemble mean is a better representation of the observations, the uncertainties in the individual models are far high. There is no particular model that performed well in simulating the historical climate of Southeast Asia. There seems to be no significant influence of the spatial resolutions of the models on the quality of simulation, despite the view that higher resolution models fare better. The study results emphasize on careful consideration of models for impact studies and the need to improve the next generation of models in their ability to simulate regional climates better.

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 1: Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundberg, R.; Moberg, A.; Hind, A.

2012-08-01

A statistical framework for comparing the output of ensemble simulations from global climate models with networks of climate proxy and instrumental records has been developed, focusing on near-surface temperatures for the last millennium. This framework includes the formulation of a joint statistical model for proxy data, instrumental data and simulation data, which is used to optimize a quadratic distance measure for ranking climate model simulations. An essential underlying assumption is that the simulations and the proxy/instrumental series have a shared component of variability that is due to temporal changes in external forcing, such as volcanic aerosol load, solar irradiance or greenhouse gas concentrations. Two statistical tests have been formulated. Firstly, a preliminary test establishes whether a significant temporal correlation exists between instrumental/proxy and simulation data. Secondly, the distance measure is expressed in the form of a test statistic of whether a forced simulation is closer to the instrumental/proxy series than unforced simulations. The proposed framework allows any number of proxy locations to be used jointly, with different seasons, record lengths and statistical precision. The goal is to objectively rank several competing climate model simulations (e.g. with alternative model parameterizations or alternative forcing histories) by means of their goodness of fit to the unobservable true past climate variations, as estimated from noisy proxy data and instrumental observations.

Laboratory simulations show diabatic heating drives cumulus-cloud evolution and entrainment

PubMed Central

Narasimha, Roddam; Diwan, Sourabh Suhas; Duvvuri, Subrahmanyam; Sreenivas, K. R.; Bhat, G. S.

2011-01-01

Clouds are the largest source of uncertainty in climate science, and remain a weak link in modeling tropical circulation. A major challenge is to establish connections between particulate microphysics and macroscale turbulent dynamics in cumulus clouds. Here we address the issue from the latter standpoint. First we show how to create bench-scale flows that reproduce a variety of cumulus-cloud forms (including two genera and three species), and track complete cloud life cycles—e.g., from a “cauliflower” congestus to a dissipating fractus. The flow model used is a transient plume with volumetric diabatic heating scaled dynamically to simulate latent-heat release from phase changes in clouds. Laser-based diagnostics of steady plumes reveal Riehl–Malkus type protected cores. They also show that, unlike the constancy implied by early self-similar plume models, the diabatic heating raises the Taylor entrainment coefficient just above cloud base, depressing it at higher levels. This behavior is consistent with cloud-dilution rates found in recent numerical simulations of steady deep convection, and with aircraft-based observations of homogeneous mixing in clouds. In-cloud diabatic heating thus emerges as the key driver in cloud development, and could well provide a major link between microphysics and cloud-scale dynamics. PMID:21918112

Design and Implementation of a Thermal Load Reduction System in a Hyundai PHEV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J; Rugh, John P

Increased market penetration of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming a number of hurdles including limited vehicle range and the elevated cost of EDVs as compared to conventional vehicles. Climate control loads have a significant impact on range, cutting it by over 50% in both cooling and heating conditions. In order to minimize the impact of climate control on EDV range, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has partnered with Hyundai America and key industry partners to quantify the performance of thermal load reduction technologies on a Hyundai Sonata PHEV. Technologies that impact vehicle cabin heating in cold weather conditions andmore » cabin cooling in warm weather conditions were evaluated. Tests included thermal transient and steady-state periods for all technologies, including the development of a new test methodology to evaluate the performance of occupant thermal conditioning. Heated surfaces and increased insulation demonstrated significant reductions in energy use from steady-state heating, including a 29% - 59% reduction from heated surfaces. Solar control glass packages demonstrated significant reductions in energy use for both transient and steady-state cooling, with up to a 42% reduction in transient and 12.8% reduction in steady-state energy use for the packages evaluated. Technologies that demonstrated significant climate control load reduction were selected for incorporation into a complete thermal load reduction package. The complete package is set to be evaluated in the second phase of the ongoing project.« less

Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

Transient water stress in a vegetation canopy - Simulations and measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Toby N.; Belles, James E.; Gillies, Robert R.

1991-01-01

Consideration is given to observational and modeling evidence of transient water stress, the effects of the transpiration plateau on the canopy radiometric temperature, and the factors responsible for the onset of the transpiration plateau, such as soil moisture. Attention is also given to the point at which the transient stress can be detected by remote measurement of surface temperature.

Transient behavior of redox flow battery connected to circuit based on global phase structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannari, Toko; Hikihara, Takashi

A Redox Flow Battery (RFB) is one of the promising energy storage systems in power grid. An RFB has many advantages such as a quick response, a large capacity, and a scalability. Due to these advantages, an RFB can operate in mixed time scale. Actually, it has been demonstrated that an RFB can be used for load leveling, compensating sag, and smoothing the output of the renewable sources. An analysis on transient behaviors of an RFB is a key issue for these applications. An RFB is governed by electrical, chemical, and fluid dynamics. The hybrid structure makes the analysis difficult. To analyze transient behaviors of an RFB, the exact model is necessary. In this paper, we focus on a change in a concentration of ions in the electrolyte, and simulate the change with a model which is mainly based on chemical kinetics. The simulation results introduces transient behaviors of an RFB in a response to a load variation. There are found three kinds of typical transient behaviors including oscillations. As results, it is clarified that the complex transient behaviors, due to slow and fast dynamics in the system, arise by the quick response to load.

Modeling of bubble dynamics in relation to medical applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amendt, P.A.; London, R.A.; Strauss, M.

1997-03-12

In various pulsed-laser medical applications, strong stress transients can be generated in advance of vapor bubble formation. To better understand the evolution of stress transients and subsequent formation of vapor bubbles, two-dimensional simulations are presented in channel or cylindrical geometry with the LATIS (LAser TISsue) computer code. Differences with one-dimensional modeling are explored, and simulated experimental conditions for vapor bubble generation are presented and compared with data. 22 refs., 8 figs.

Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Suk-Jin; Kim, Baek-Min

2018-03-01

Climate models using different dynamical cores can simulate significantly different winter Arctic climates even if equipped with virtually the same physics schemes. Current climate simulated by the global climate model using cubed-sphere grid with spectral element method (SE core) exhibited significantly warmer Arctic surface air temperature compared to that using latitude-longitude grid with finite volume method core. Compared to the finite volume method core, SE core simulated additional adiabatic warming in the Arctic lower atmosphere, and this was consistent with the eddy-forced secondary circulation. Downward longwave radiation further enhanced Arctic near-surface warming with a higher surface air temperature of about 1.9 K. Furthermore, in the atmospheric response to the reduced sea ice conditions with the same physical settings, only the SE core showed a robust cooling response over North America. We emphasize that special attention is needed in selecting the dynamical core of climate models in the simulation of the Arctic climate and associated teleconnection patterns.

Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts. [1] http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Deconvolution of noisy transient signals: a Kalman filtering application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Candy, J.V.; Zicker, J.E.

The deconvolution of transient signals from noisy measurements is a common problem occuring in various tests at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The transient deconvolution problem places atypical constraints on algorithms presently available. The Schmidt-Kalman filter, a time-varying, tunable predictor, is designed using a piecewise constant model of the transient input signal. A simulation is developed to test the algorithm for various input signal bandwidths and different signal-to-noise ratios for the input and output sequences. The algorithm performance is reasonable.

Effects of a transient sea surface temperature anomaly on the energetics of the Mintz-Arakawa model atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, S. H.

1974-01-01

The possible response of the atmosphere, as simulated by the two level Mintz-Arakawa global general circulation model, to a transient North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is investigated in terms of the energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. Results indicate that the transient SST variations of reasonable magnitude in the North Pacific Ocean can induce a disturbing effect on the global energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. The ability of the two level Mintz-Arakawa model to simulate the atmospheric energetics is also examined. Except in the tropics, the model exhibits a reasonable and realistic energy budget.

Numerical Simulation and Analyses of the Loss of Feedwater Transient at the Unit 4 of Kola NPP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevanovic, Vladimir D.; Stosic, Zoran V.; Kiera, Michael

2002-07-01

A three-dimensional numerical simulation of the loss-of-feed water transient at the horizontal steam generator of the Kola nuclear power plant is performed. Presented numerical results show transient change of integral steam generator parameters, such as steam generation rate, water mass inventory, outlet reactor coolant temperature, as well as detailed distribution of shell side thermal-hydraulic parameters: swell and collapsed levels, void fraction distributions, mass flux vectors, etc. Numerical results are compared with measurements at the Kola NPP. The agreement is satisfactory, while differences are close to or below the measurement uncertainties. Obtained numerical results are the first ones that give completemore » insight into the three-dimensional and transient horizontal steam generator thermal-hydraulics. Also, the presented results serve as benchmark tests for the assessment and further improvement of one-dimensional models of horizontal steam generator built with safety codes. (authors)« less

Two-phase flow in the cooling circuit of a cryogenic rocket engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preclik, D.

1992-07-01

Transient two-phase flow was investigated for the hydrogen cooling circuit of the HM7 rocket engine. The nuclear reactor code ATHLET/THESEUS was adapted to cryogenics and applied to both principal and prototype experiments for validation and simulation purposes. The cooling circuit two-phase flow simulation focused on the hydrogen prechilling and pump transient phase prior to ignition. Both a single- and a multichannel model were designed and employed for a valve leakage flow, a nominal prechilling flow, and a prechilling with a subsequent pump-transient flow. The latter case was performed in order to evaluate the difference between a nominal and a delayed turbo-pump start-up. It was found that an extension of the nominal prechilling sequence in the order of 1 second is sufficient to finally provide for liquid injection conditions of hydrogen which, as commonly known, is undesirable for smooth ignition and engine starting transients.

Erosion simulation of first wall beryllium armour under ITER transient heat loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazylev, B.; Janeschitz, G.; Landman, I.; Pestchanyi, S.; Loarte, A.

2009-04-01

The beryllium is foreseen as plasma facing armour for the first wall in the ITER in form of Be-clad blanket modules in macrobrush design with brush size about 8-10 cm. In ITER significant heat loads during transient events (TE) are expected at the main chamber wall that may leads to the essential damage of the Be armour. The main mechanisms of metallic target damage remain surface melting and melt motion erosion, which determines the lifetime of the plasma facing components. Melting thresholds and melt layer depth of the Be armour under transient loads are estimated for different temperatures of the bulk Be and different shapes of transient loads. The melt motion damages of Be macrobrush armour caused by the tangential friction force and the Lorentz force are analyzed for bulk Be and different sizes of Be-brushes. The damage of FW under radiative loads arising during mitigated disruptions is numerically simulated.

The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

PubMed

Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

2013-10-28

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

Sensitivity of Pacific Cold Tongue and Double-ITCZ Bias to Convective Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woelfle, M.; Bretherton, C. S.; Pritchard, M. S.; Yu, S.

2016-12-01

Many global climate models struggle to accurately simulate annual mean precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) fields in the tropical Pacific basin. Precipitation biases are dominated by the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias where models exhibit precipitation maxima straddling the equator while only a single Northern Hemispheric maximum exists in observations. The major SST bias is the enhancement of the equatorial cold tongue. A series of coupled model simulations are used to investigate the sensitivity of the bias development to convective parameterization. Model components are initialized independently prior to coupling to allow analysis of the transient response of the system directly following coupling. These experiments show precipitation and SST patterns to be highly sensitive to convective parameterization. Simulations in which the deep convective parameterization is disabled forcing all convection to be resolved by the shallow convection parameterization showed a degradation in both the cold tongue and double-ITCZ biases as precipitation becomes focused into off-equatorial regions of local SST maxima. Simulations using superparameterization in place of traditional cloud parameterizations showed a reduced cold tongue bias at the expense of additional precipitation biases. The equatorial SST responses to changes in convective parameterization are driven by changes in near equatorial zonal wind stress. The sensitivity of convection to SST is important in determining the precipitation and wind stress fields. However, differences in convective momentum transport also play a role. While no significant improvement is seen in these simulations of the double-ITCZ, the system's sensitivity to these changes reaffirm that improved convective parameterizations may provide an avenue for improving simulations of tropical Pacific precipitation and SST.

Large Eddy Simulation of Transient Flow, Solidification, and Particle Transport Processes in Continuous-Casting Mold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhongqiu; Li, Linmin; Li, Baokuan; Jiang, Maofa

2014-07-01

The current study developed a coupled computational model to simulate the transient fluid flow, solidification, and particle transport processes in a slab continuous-casting mold. Transient flow of molten steel in the mold is calculated using the large eddy simulation. An enthalpy-porosity approach is used for the analysis of solidification processes. The transport of bubble and non-metallic inclusion inside the liquid pool is calculated using the Lagrangian approach based on the transient flow field. A criterion of particle entrapment in the solidified shell is developed using the user-defined functions of FLUENT software (ANSYS, Inc., Canonsburg, PA). The predicted results of this model are compared with the measurements of the ultrasonic testing of the rolled steel plates and the water model experiments. The transient asymmetrical flow pattern inside the liquid pool exhibits quite satisfactory agreement with the corresponding measurements. The predicted complex instantaneous velocity field is composed of various small recirculation zones and multiple vortices. The transport of particles inside the liquid pool and the entrapment of particles in the solidified shell are not symmetric. The Magnus force can reduce the entrapment ratio of particles in the solidified shell, especially for smaller particles, but the effect is not obvious. The Marangoni force can play an important role in controlling the motion of particles, which increases the entrapment ratio of particles in the solidified shell obviously.

Continuous variable quantum optical simulation for time evolution of quantum harmonic oscillators

PubMed Central

Deng, Xiaowei; Hao, Shuhong; Guo, Hong; Xie, Changde; Su, Xiaolong

2016-01-01

Quantum simulation enables one to mimic the evolution of other quantum systems using a controllable quantum system. Quantum harmonic oscillator (QHO) is one of the most important model systems in quantum physics. To observe the transient dynamics of a QHO with high oscillation frequency directly is difficult. We experimentally simulate the transient behaviors of QHO in an open system during time evolution with an optical mode and a logical operation system of continuous variable quantum computation. The time evolution of an atomic ensemble in the collective spontaneous emission is analytically simulated by mapping the atomic ensemble onto a QHO. The measured fidelity, which is used for quantifying the quality of the simulation, is higher than its classical limit. The presented simulation scheme provides a new tool for studying the dynamic behaviors of QHO. PMID:26961962

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation

PubMed Central

Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; He, Feng; Lifton, Nathaniel A.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

2015-01-01

The ongoing retreat of glaciers globally is one of the clearest manifestations of recent global warming associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. By comparison, the importance of greenhouse gases in driving glacier retreat during the most recent deglaciation, the last major interval of global warming, is unclear due to uncertainties in the timing of retreat around the world. Here we use recently improved cosmogenic-nuclide production-rate calibrations to recalculate the ages of 1,116 glacial boulders from 195 moraines that provide broad coverage of retreat in mid-to-low-latitude regions. This revised history, in conjunction with transient climate model simulations, suggests that while several regional-scale forcings, including insolation, ice sheets and ocean circulation, modulated glacier responses regionally, they are unable to account for global-scale retreat, which is most likely related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26293133

Re-Assessing Leaching Requirements for the Salinity Control under New Irrigation Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Laosheng; Yang, Ting; Šimůnek, Jirka

2017-04-01

Irrigation is essential to sustain agricultural production, but it adds dissolved salts (or salinity) to croplands. Leaching is thus necessary to keep the average rootzone salinity below the plant threshold EC levels in order to sustain crop production. Current leaching requirement (LR) calculation is based on steady-state, one-dimensional (1D), and water balance approaches, which often overestimates the LRs under transient field conditions. While in recent years, surface and sprinkler irrigated fields have been largely converted to drip or micro-spray systems and deficit irrigation has become more popular, currently accepted LRs may not be appropriate for these irrigation systems. Under point or line irrigation sources (e.g., drips or drip-lines), water and salts move both downwards and laterally, which may lead to highly saline areas on the edges of the wetted area. Under such circumstances, processes such as precipitation/dissolution of mineral phases and/or cation exchange may significantly affect the leaching requirement. The overall objective of this research was to use computer simulation models (i.e., Hydrus-2D and UnsatChem) to evaluate LRs under transient conditions and new irrigation regimes. Simulations were carried out using parameters for soils, climate zones, and major crops and their corresponding fertilization practices typical for California to: (1) Assess the effects of salt precipitation/dissolution on the leaching requirement (LR); (2) Evaluate localized water movement on average rootzone salinity and the leaching requirement (LR); (3) Evaluate leaching requirements for soils under deficit irrigation; and (4) Assess the effects of rainfall on the leaching requirement. Information from this research could significantly impact water management practices in irrigated croplands.

An Introduction to Transient Engine Applications Using the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) and MATLAB

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Jeffrey C.; Csank, Jeffrey T.; Haller, William J.; Seidel, Jonathan A.

2016-01-01

This document outlines methodologies designed to improve the interface between the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation framework and various control and dynamic analyses developed in the Matlab and Simulink environment. Although NPSS is most commonly used for steady-state modeling, this paper is intended to supplement the relatively sparse documentation on it's transient analysis functionality. Matlab has become an extremely popular engineering environment, and better methodologies are necessary to develop tools that leverage the benefits of these disparate frameworks. Transient analysis is not a new feature of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS), but transient considerations are becoming more pertinent as multidisciplinary trade-offs begin to play a larger role in advanced engine designs. This paper serves to supplement the relatively sparse documentation on transient modeling and cover the budding convergence between NPSS and Matlab based modeling toolsets. The following sections explore various design patterns to rapidly develop transient models. Each approach starts with a base model built with NPSS, and assumes the reader already has a basic understanding of how to construct a steady-state model. The second half of the paper focuses on further enhancements required to subsequently interface NPSS with Matlab codes. The first method being the simplest and most straightforward but performance constrained, and the last being the most abstract. These methods aren't mutually exclusive and the specific implementation details could vary greatly based on the designer's discretion. Basic recommendations are provided to organize model logic in a format most easily amenable to integration with existing Matlab control toolsets.

The role of root distribution in eco-hydrological modeling in semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivandran, G.; Bras, R. L.

2010-12-01

In semi arid regions, the rooting strategies employed by vegetation can be critical to its survival. Arid regions are characterized by high variability in the arrival of rainfall, and species found in these areas have adapted mechanisms to ensure the capture of this scarce resource. Niche separation, through rooting strategies, is one manner in which different species coexist. At present, land surface models prescribe rooting profiles as a function of only the plant functional type of interest with no consideration for the soil texture or rainfall regime of the region being modeled. These models do not incorporate the ability of vegetation to dynamically alter their rooting strategies in response to transient changes in environmental forcings and therefore tend to underestimate the resilience of many of these ecosystems. A coupled, dynamic vegetation and hydrologic model, tRIBS+VEGGIE, was used to explore the role of vertical root distribution on hydrologic fluxes. Point scale simulations were carried out using two vertical root distribution schemes: (i) Static - a temporally invariant root distribution; and (ii) Dynamic - a temporally variable allocation of assimilated carbon at any depth within the root zone in order to minimize the soil moisture-induced stress on the vegetation. The simulations were forced with a stochastic climate generator calibrated to weather stations and rain gauges in the semi-arid Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in Arizona. For the static root distribution scheme, a series of simulations were carried out varying the shape of the rooting profile. The optimal distribution for the simulation was defined as the root distribution with the maximum mean transpiration over a 200 year period. This optimal distribution was determined for 5 soil textures and using 2 plant functional types, and the results varied from case to case. The dynamic rooting simulations allow vegetation the freedom to adjust the allocation of assimilated carbon to different rooting depths in response to changes in stress caused by the redistribution and uptake of soil moisture. The results obtained from these experiments elucidate the strong link between plant functional type, soil texture and climate and highlight the potential errors in the modeling of hydrologic fluxes from imposing a static root profile.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Wheat-Fallow Cropping Systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural system simulation models are predictive tools for assessing climate change impacts on crop production. In this study, RZWQM2 that contains the DSSAT 4.0-CERES model was evaluated for simulating climate change impacts on wheat growth. The model was calibrated and validated using data fro...

Climate simulations and projections with a super-parameterized climate model

DOE PAGES

Stan, Cristiana; Xu, Li

2014-07-01

The mean climate and its variability are analyzed in a suite of numerical experiments with a fully coupled general circulation model in which subgrid-scale moist convection is explicitly represented through embedded 2D cloud-system resolving models. Control simulations forced by the present day, fixed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are conducted using two horizontal resolutions and validated against observations and reanalyses. The mean state simulated by the higher resolution configuration has smaller biases. Climate variability also shows some sensitivity to resolution but not as uniform as in the case of mean state. The interannual and seasonal variability are better represented in themore » simulation at lower resolution whereas the subseasonal variability is more accurate in the higher resolution simulation. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of the model is estimated from a simulation forced by an abrupt quadrupling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The equilibrium climate sensitivity temperature of the model is 2.77 °C, and this value is slightly smaller than the mean value (3.37 °C) of contemporary models using conventional representation of cloud processes. As a result, the climate change simulation forced by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario projects an increase in the frequency of severe droughts over most of the North America.« less

Untangling climatic and autogenic signals in peat records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Paul J.; Baird, Andrew J.; Young, Dylan M.; Swindles, Graeme T.

2016-04-01

Raised bogs contain potentially valuable information about Holocene climate change. However, autogenic processes may disconnect peatland hydrological behaviour from climate, and overwrite and degrade climatic signals in peat records. How can genuine climate signals be separated from autogenic changes? What level of detail of climatic information should we expect to be able to recover from peat-based reconstructions? We used an updated version of the DigiBog model to simulate peatland development and response to reconstructed Holocene rainfall and temperature reconstructions. The model represents key processes that are influential in peatland development and climate signal preservation, and includes a network of feedbacks between peat accumulation, decomposition, hydraulic structure and hydrological processes. It also incorporates the effects of temperature upon evapotranspiration, plant (litter) productivity and peat decomposition. Negative feedbacks in the model cause simulated water-table depths and peat humification records to exhibit homeostatic recovery from prescribed changes in rainfall, chiefly through changes in drainage. However, the simulated bogs show less resilience to changes in temperature, which cause lasting alterations to peatland structure and function and may therefore be more readily detectable in peat records. The network of feedbacks represented in DigiBog also provide both high- and low-pass filters for climatic information, meaning that the fidelity with which climate signals are preserved in simulated peatlands is determined by both the magnitude and the rate of climate change. Large-magnitude climatic events of an intermediate frequency (i.e., multi-decadal to centennial) are best preserved in the simulated bogs. We found that simulated humification records are further degraded by a phenomenon known as secondary decomposition. Decomposition signals are consistently offset from the climatic events that generate them, and decomposition records of dry-wet-dry climate sequences appear to be particularly vulnerable to overwriting. Our findings have direct implications not only for the interpretation of peat-based records of past climates, but also for understanding the likely vulnerability of peatland ecosystems and carbon stocks to future climate change.

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and numeric examples

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiqi; Shi, Zheng; Lu, Xingjie; ...

2016-09-16

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since preindustrial era, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling, experimental, and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under climate change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production,more » NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Furthermore, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can exactly replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. Moreover, the emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. We also propose that the C storage potential be the targeted variable for research, market trading, and government negotiation for C credits.« less

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and numeric examples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi; Shi, Zheng; Lu, Xingjie

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since preindustrial era, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling, experimental, and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under climate change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production,more » NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Furthermore, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can exactly replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. Moreover, the emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. We also propose that the C storage potential be the targeted variable for research, market trading, and government negotiation for C credits.« less

Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2005-01-01

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.

Ground water/surface water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa ClaraCalleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Nin??o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/??C, compared to 0.9 m/??C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and - when the GCM forecast skills are adequate - for near term predictions.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-05-01

climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.

2013-01-01

Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Environmental, Transient, Three-Dimensional, Hydrothermal, Mass Transport Code - FLESCOT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Bao, Jie; Glass, Kevin A.

The purpose of the project was to modify and apply the transient, three-dimensional FLESCOT code to be able to effectively simulate cesium behavior in Fukushima lakes/dam reservoirs, river mouths, and coastal areas. The ultimate objective of the FLESCOT simulation is to predict future changes of cesium accumulation in Fukushima area reservoirs and costal water. These evaluation results will assist ongoing and future environmental remediation activities and policies in a systematic and comprehensive manner.

High-Fidelity Real-Time Simulation on Deployed Platforms

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-26

three–dimensional transient heat conduction “ Swiss Cheese ” problem; and a three–dimensional unsteady incompressible Navier- Stokes low–Reynolds–number...our approach with three examples: a two?dimensional Helmholtz acoustics ?horn? problem; a three?dimensional transient heat conduction ? Swiss Cheese ...solutions; a transient lin- ear heat conduction problem in a three–dimensional “ Swiss Cheese ” configuration Ω — to illustrate treat- ment of many

Solar tower cavity receiver aperture optimization based on transient optical and thermo-hydraulic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöttl, Peter; Bern, Gregor; van Rooyen, De Wet; Heimsath, Anna; Fluri, Thomas; Nitz, Peter

2017-06-01

A transient simulation methodology for cavity receivers for Solar Tower Central Receiver Systems with molten salt as heat transfer fluid is described. Absorbed solar radiation is modeled with ray tracing and a sky discretization approach to reduce computational effort. Solar radiation re-distribution in the cavity as well as thermal radiation exchange are modeled based on view factors, which are also calculated with ray tracing. An analytical approach is used to represent convective heat transfer in the cavity. Heat transfer fluid flow is simulated with a discrete tube model, where the boundary conditions at the outer tube surface mainly depend on inputs from the previously mentioned modeling aspects. A specific focus is put on the integration of optical and thermo-hydraulic models. Furthermore, aiming point and control strategies are described, which are used during the transient performance assessment. Eventually, the developed simulation methodology is used for the optimization of the aperture opening size of a PS10-like reference scenario with cavity receiver and heliostat field. The objective function is based on the cumulative gain of one representative day. Results include optimized aperture opening size, transient receiver characteristics and benefits of the implemented aiming point strategy compared to a single aiming point approach. Future work will include annual simulations, cost assessment and optimization of a larger range of receiver parameters.

Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasheva, E. A.

2015-12-01

For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2013-12-01

The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

The effect of different spectral shape parameterizations of cloud droplet size distribution on first and second aerosol indirect effects in NACR CAM5 and evaluation with satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Peng, Y.; Xie, X.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Aerosol cloud interaction continues to constitute one of the most significant uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. The parameterization of cloud droplet size distribution and autoconversion process from large scale cloud to rain can influence the estimation of first and second aerosol indirect effects in global climate models. We design a series of experiments focusing on the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5 (Community Atmospheric Model Version 5) in transient historical run with realistic sea surface temperature and sea ice. We investigate the effect of three empirical, two semi-empirical and one analytical expressions for droplet size distribution on cloud properties and explore the statistical relationships between aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and simulated cloud variables, including cloud top droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP). We also introduce the droplet spectral shape parameter into the autoconversion process to incorporate the effect of droplet size distribution on second aerosol indirect effect. Three satellite datasets (MODIS Terra/ MODIS Aqua/ AVHRR) are used to evaluate the simulated aerosol indirect effect from the model. Evident CDER decreasing with significant AOT increasing is found in the east coast of China to the North Pacific Ocean and the east coast of USA to the North Atlantic Ocean. Analytical and semi-empirical expressions for spectral shape parameterization show stronger first aerosol indirect effect but weaker second aerosol indirect effect than empirical expressions because of the narrower droplet size distribution.

Modelling trends in tropical column ozone with the UKCA chemistry-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeble, James; Bednarz, Ewa; Banerjee, Antara; Abraham, Luke; Harris, Neil; Maycock, Amanda; Pyle, John

2016-04-01

Trends in tropical column ozone under a number of different emissions scenarios are explored with the UM-UKCA coupled chemistry climate model. A transient 1960-2100 simulation was run following the RCP6 scenario. Tropical averaged (10S-10N) total column ozone values decrease from the 1970s, reaching a minimum around 2000, and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of ozone depleting substances, and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the total column is subdivided into three partial columns, extending from the surface to the tropopause, the tropopause to 30km, and 30km to 50km, significant differences to the total column trend are seen. Modelled tropospheric column values increase from 1960-2000 before remaining steady throughout the 21st Century. Lower stratospheric column values decrease rapidly from 1960-2000, remain steady until 2050 before slowly decreasing to 2100, never recovering to their 1980s values. Upper stratospheric values decrease from 1960-2000, before rapidly increasing throughout the 21st Century, recovering to 1980s values by ~2020 and are significantly increased above the 1980s values by 2100. Using a series of idealised model simulations with varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, we assess the physical processes driving the partial column response in the troposphere, lower stratosphere and upper stratosphere, and assess how these processes change under different emissions scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model for predicting tropical column ozone values based on greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance scenarios.

Simulation of the Francis-99 Hydro Turbine During Steady and Transient Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewan, Yuvraj; Custer, Chad; Ivashchenko, Artem

2017-01-01

Numerical simulation of the Francis-99 hydroturbine with correlation to experimental measurements are presented. Steady operation of the hydroturbine is analyzed at three operating conditions: the best efficiency point (BEP), high load (HL), and part load (PL). It is shown that global quantities such as net head, discharge and efficiency are well predicted. Additionally, time-averaged velocity predictions compare well with PIV measurements obtained in the draft tube immediately downstream of the runner. Differences in vortex rope structure between operating points are discussed. Unsteady operation of the hydroturbine from BEP to HL and from BEP to PL are modeled. It is shown that simulation methods used to model the steady operation produce predictions that correlate well with experiment for transient operation. Time-domain unsteady simulation is used for both steady and unsteady operation. The full-fidelity geometry including all components is meshed using an unstructured polyhedral mesh with body-fitted prism layers. Guide vane rotation for transient operation is imposed using fully-conservative, computationally efficient mesh morphing. The commercial solver STAR-CCM+ is used for all portions of the analysis including meshing, solving and post-processing.

Numerical analysis of steady and transient natural convection in an enclosed cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehedi, Tanveer Hassan; Tahzeeb, Rahat Bin; Islam, A. K. M. Sadrul

2017-06-01

The paper presents the numerical simulation of natural convection heat transfer of air inside an enclosed cavity which can be helpful to find out the critical width of insulation in air insulated walls seen in residential buildings and industrial furnaces. Natural convection between two walls having different temperatures have been simulated using ANSYS FLUENT 12.0 in both steady and transient conditions. To simulate different heat transfer and fluid flow conditions, Rayleigh number ranging from 103 to 105 has been maintained (i.e. Laminar flow.) In case of steady state analysis, the CFD predictions were in very good agreement with the reviewed literature. Transient simulation process has been performed by using User Defined Functions, where the temperature of the hot wall varies with time linearly. To obtain and compare the heat transfer properties, Nusselt number has been calculated at the hot wall at different conditions. The buoyancy driven flow characteristics have been investigated by observing the flow pattern in a graphical manner. The characteristics of the system at different temperature differences between the wall has been observed and documented.

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.