A System to Derive Optimal Tree Diameter Increment Models from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Data Base (EFIDB)

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg

2002-01-01

This article is an introduction to the computer software used by the Potential Relative Increment (PRI) approach to optimal tree diameter growth modeling. These DOS programs extract qualified tree and plot data from the Eastwide Forest Inventory Data Base (EFIDB), calculate relative tree increment, sort for the highest relative increments by diameter class, and...

Geometric Modelling of Tree Roots with Different Levels of Detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero Iñiguez, J. I.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a geometric approach for modelling tree roots with different Levels of Detail, suitable for analysis of the tree anchoring, potentially occupied underground space, interaction with urban elements and damage produced and taken in the built-in environment. Three types of tree roots are considered to cover several species: tap root, heart shaped root and lateral roots. Shrubs and smaller plants are not considered, however, a similar approach can be considered if the information is available for individual species. The geometrical approach considers the difficulties of modelling the actual roots, which are dynamic and almost opaque to direct observation, proposing generalized versions. For each type of root, different geometric models are considered to capture the overall shape of the root, a simplified block model, and a planar or surface projected version. Lower detail versions are considered as compatibility version for 2D systems while higher detail models are suitable for 3D analysis and visualization. The proposed levels of detail are matched with CityGML Levels of Detail, enabling both analysis and aesthetic views for urban modelling.

Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2013-02-01

Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modeling. In this paper we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modeling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalization property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally very efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analyzed on two real-world case studies (Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia)) representing two different morphoclimatic contexts comparatively with other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2013-07-01

Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modelling. In this paper, we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modelling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalisation property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analysed on two real-world case studies - Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia) - representing two different morphoclimatic contexts. The evaluation is performed against other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2016-01-01

Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

A practical approach to assessing structure, function, and value of street tree populations in small communities

Treesearch

S.E. Maco; E.G. McPherson

2003-01-01

This study demonstrates an approach to quantify the structure, benefits, and costs of street tree populations in resource-limited communities without tree inventories. Using the city of Davis, California, U.S., as a model, existing data on the benefits and costs of municipal trees were applied to the results of a sample inventory of the city’s public and private street...

Comparative analysis of tree classification models for detecting fusarium oxysporum f. sp cubense (TR4) based on multi soil sensor parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estuar, Maria Regina Justina; Victorino, John Noel; Coronel, Andrei; Co, Jerelyn; Tiausas, Francis; Señires, Chiara Veronica

2017-09-01

Use of wireless sensor networks and smartphone integration design to monitor environmental parameters surrounding plantations is made possible because of readily available and affordable sensors. Providing low cost monitoring devices would be beneficial, especially to small farm owners, in a developing country like the Philippines, where agriculture covers a significant amount of the labor market. This study discusses the integration of wireless soil sensor devices and smartphones to create an application that will use multidimensional analysis to detect the presence or absence of plant disease. Specifically, soil sensors are designed to collect soil quality parameters in a sink node from which the smartphone collects data from via Bluetooth. Given these, there is a need to develop a classification model on the mobile phone that will report infection status of a soil. Though tree classification is the most appropriate approach for continuous parameter-based datasets, there is a need to determine whether tree models will result to coherent results or not. Soil sensor data that resides on the phone is modeled using several variations of decision tree, namely: decision tree (DT), best-fit (BF) decision tree, functional tree (FT), Naive Bayes (NB) decision tree, J48, J48graft and LAD tree, where decision tree approaches the problem by considering all sensor nodes as one. Results show that there are significant differences among soil sensor parameters indicating that there are variances in scores between the infected and uninfected sites. Furthermore, analysis of variance in accuracy, recall, precision and F1 measure scores from tree classification models homogeneity among NBTree, J48graft and J48 tree classification models.

EDNA: Expert fault digraph analysis using CLIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dixit, Vishweshwar V.

1990-01-01

Traditionally fault models are represented by trees. Recently, digraph models have been proposed (Sack). Digraph models closely imitate the real system dependencies and hence are easy to develop, validate and maintain. However, they can also contain directed cycles and analysis algorithms are hard to find. Available algorithms tend to be complicated and slow. On the other hand, the tree analysis (VGRH, Tayl) is well understood and rooted in vast research effort and analytical techniques. The tree analysis algorithms are sophisticated and orders of magnitude faster. Transformation of a digraph (cyclic) into trees (CLP, LP) is a viable approach to blend the advantages of the representations. Neither the digraphs nor the trees provide the ability to handle heuristic knowledge. An expert system, to capture the engineering knowledge, is essential. We propose an approach here, namely, expert network analysis. We combine the digraph representation and tree algorithms. The models are augmented by probabilistic and heuristic knowledge. CLIPS, an expert system shell from NASA-JSC will be used to develop a tool. The technique provides the ability to handle probabilities and heuristic knowledge. Mixed analysis, some nodes with probabilities, is possible. The tool provides graphics interface for input, query, and update. With the combined approach it is expected to be a valuable tool in the design process as well in the capture of final design knowledge.

A discrete element modelling approach for block impacts on trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toe, David; Bourrier, Franck; Olmedo, Ignatio; Berger, Frederic

2015-04-01

These past few year rockfall models explicitly accounting for block shape, especially those using the Discrete Element Method (DEM), have shown a good ability to predict rockfall trajectories. Integrating forest effects into those models still remain challenging. This study aims at using a DEM approach to model impacts of blocks on trees and identify the key parameters controlling the block kinematics after the impact on a tree. A DEM impact model of a block on a tree was developed and validated using laboratory experiments. Then, key parameters were assessed using a global sensitivity analyse. Modelling the impact of a block on a tree using DEM allows taking into account large displacements, material non-linearities and contacts between the block and the tree. Tree stems are represented by flexible cylinders model as plastic beams sustaining normal, shearing, bending, and twisting loading. Root soil interactions are modelled using a rotation stiffness acting on the bending moment at the bottom of the tree and a limit bending moment to account for tree overturning. The crown is taken into account using an additional mass distribute uniformly on the upper part of the tree. The block is represented by a sphere. The contact model between the block and the stem consists of an elastic frictional model. The DEM model was validated using laboratory impact tests carried out on 41 fresh beech (Fagus Sylvatica) stems. Each stem was 1,3 m long with a diameter between 3 to 7 cm. Wood stems were clamped on a rigid structure and impacted by a 149 kg charpy pendulum. Finally an intensive simulation campaign of blocks impacting trees was done to identify the input parameters controlling the block kinematics after the impact on a tree. 20 input parameters were considered in the DEM simulation model : 12 parameters were related to the tree and 8 parameters to the block. The results highlight that the impact velocity, the stem diameter, and the block volume are the three input parameters that control the block kinematics after impact.

Urban tree mortality: a primer on demographic approaches

Treesearch

Lara A. Roman; John J. Battles; Joe R. McBride

2016-01-01

Realizing the benefits of tree planting programs depends on tree survival. Projections of urban forest ecosystem services and cost-benefit analyses are sensitive to assumptions about tree mortality rates. Long-term mortality data are needed to improve the accuracy of these models and optimize the public investment in tree planting. With more accurate population...

Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, Thomas

2005-01-01

A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

Predicting diameter at breast height from total height and crown length

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Thomas J. Dean

2013-01-01

Tree diameter at breast height (d.b.h.) is often predicted from total height (model 1a) or both total height and number of trees per acre (model 1b). These approaches are useful when Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data are available. LiDAR height data can be employed to predict tree d.b.h., and consequently individual tree volumes and volume/ ha can be obtained...

Rethinking plant functional types in Earth System Models: pan-tropical analysis of tree survival across environmental gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, D. J.; Needham, J.; Xu, C.; Davies, S. J.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Giardina, C. P.; Condit, R.; Cordell, S.; Litton, C. M.; Hubbell, S.; Kassim, A. R. B.; Shawn, L. K. Y.; Nasardin, M. B.; Ong, P.; Ostertag, R.; Sack, L.; Tan, S. K. S.; Yap, S.; McDowell, N. G.; McMahon, S.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial carbon cycling is a function of the growth and survival of trees. Current model representations of tree growth and survival at a global scale rely on coarse plant functional traits that are parameterized very generally. In view of the large biodiversity in the tropical forests, it is important that we account for the functional diversity in order to better predict tropical forest responses to future climate changes. Several next generation Earth System Models are moving towards a size-structured, trait-based approach to modelling vegetation globally, but the challenge of which and how many traits are necessary to capture forest complexity remains. Additionally, the challenge of collecting sufficient trait data to describe the vast species richness of tropical forests is enormous. We propose a more fundamental approach to these problems by characterizing forests by their patterns of survival. We expect our approach to distill real-world tree survival into a reasonable number of functional types. Using 10 large-area tropical forest plots that span geographic, edaphic and climatic gradients, we model tree survival as a function of tree size for hundreds of species. We found surprisingly few categories of size-survival functions emerge. This indicates some fundamental strategies at play across diverse forests to constrain the range of possible size-survival functions. Initial cluster analysis indicates that four to eight functional forms are necessary to describe variation in size-survival relations. Temporal variation in size-survival functions can be related to local environmental variation, allowing us to parameterize how demographically similar groups of species respond to perturbations in the ecosystem. We believe this methodology will yield a synthetic approach to classifying forest systems that will greatly reduce uncertainty and complexity in global vegetation models.

Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2010-01-01

Climate change will likely cause impacts that are species specific and significant; modeling is critical to better understand potential changes in suitable habitat. We use empirical, abundance-based habitat models utilizing decision tree-based ensemble methods to explore potential changes of 134 tree species habitats in the eastern United States (http://www.nrs.fs.fed....

M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

PubMed

Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

2016-11-01

This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compatible Models of Carbon Content of Individual Trees on a Cunninghamia lanceolata Plantation in Fujian Province, China

PubMed Central

Zhuo, Lin; Tao, Hong; Wei, Hong; Chengzhen, Wu

2016-01-01

We tried to establish compatible carbon content models of individual trees for a Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) plantation from Fujian province in southeast China. In general, compatibility requires that the sum of components equal the whole tree, meaning that the sum of percentages calculated from component equations should equal 100%. Thus, we used multiple approaches to simulate carbon content in boles, branches, foliage leaves, roots and the whole individual trees. The approaches included (i) single optimal fitting (SOF), (ii) nonlinear adjustment in proportion (NAP) and (iii) nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR). These approaches were used in combination with variables relating diameter at breast height (D) and tree height (H), such as D, D2H, DH and D&H (where D&H means two separate variables in bivariate model). Power, exponential and polynomial functions were tested as well as a new general function model was proposed by this study. Weighted least squares regression models were employed to eliminate heteroscedasticity. Model performances were evaluated by using mean residuals, residual variance, mean square error and the determination coefficient. The results indicated that models with two dimensional variables (DH, D2H and D&H) were always superior to those with a single variable (D). The D&H variable combination was found to be the most useful predictor. Of all the approaches, SOF could establish a single optimal model separately, but there were deviations in estimating results due to existing incompatibilities, while NAP and NSUR could ensure predictions compatibility. Simultaneously, we found that the new general model had better accuracy than others. In conclusion, we recommend that the new general model be used to estimate carbon content for Chinese fir and considered for other vegetation types as well. PMID:26982054

Efficient Exploration of the Space of Reconciled Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Rosikiewicz, Wojciech; Boussau, Bastien; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent

2013-01-01

Gene trees record the combination of gene-level events, such as duplication, transfer and loss (DTL), and species-level events, such as speciation and extinction. Gene tree–species tree reconciliation methods model these processes by drawing gene trees into the species tree using a series of gene and species-level events. The reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alone almost always involves choosing between statistically equivalent or weakly distinguishable relationships that could be much better resolved based on a putative species tree. To exploit this potential for accurate reconstruction of gene trees, the space of reconciled gene trees must be explored according to a joint model of sequence evolution and gene tree–species tree reconciliation. Here we present amalgamated likelihood estimation (ALE), a probabilistic approach to exhaustively explore all reconciled gene trees that can be amalgamated as a combination of clades observed in a sample of gene trees. We implement the ALE approach in the context of a reconciliation model (Szöllősi et al. 2013), which allows for the DTL of genes. We use ALE to efficiently approximate the sum of the joint likelihood over amalgamations and to find the reconciled gene tree that maximizes the joint likelihood among all such trees. We demonstrate using simulations that gene trees reconstructed using the joint likelihood are substantially more accurate than those reconstructed using sequence alone. Using realistic gene tree topologies, branch lengths, and alignment sizes, we demonstrate that ALE produces more accurate gene trees even if the model of sequence evolution is greatly simplified. Finally, examining 1099 gene families from 36 cyanobacterial genomes we find that joint likelihood-based inference results in a striking reduction in apparent phylogenetic discord, with respectively. 24%, 59%, and 46% reductions in the mean numbers of duplications, transfers, and losses per gene family. The open source implementation of ALE is available from https://github.com/ssolo/ALE.git. [amalgamation; gene tree reconciliation; gene tree reconstruction; lateral gene transfer; phylogeny.] PMID:23925510

Modeling tree crown dynamics with 3D partial differential equations.

PubMed

Beyer, Robert; Letort, Véronique; Cournède, Paul-Henry

2014-01-01

We characterize a tree's spatial foliage distribution by the local leaf area density. Considering this spatially continuous variable allows to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the tree crown by means of 3D partial differential equations. These offer a framework to rigorously take locally and adaptively acting effects into account, notably the growth toward light. Biomass production through photosynthesis and the allocation to foliage and wood are readily included in this model framework. The system of equations stands out due to its inherent dynamic property of self-organization and spontaneous adaptation, generating complex behavior from even only a few parameters. The density-based approach yields spatially structured tree crowns without relying on detailed geometry. We present the methodological fundamentals of such a modeling approach and discuss further prospects and applications.

PhyloTreePruner: A Phylogenetic Tree-Based Approach for Selection of Orthologous Sequences for Phylogenomics.

PubMed

Kocot, Kevin M; Citarella, Mathew R; Moroz, Leonid L; Halanych, Kenneth M

2013-01-01

Molecular phylogenetics relies on accurate identification of orthologous sequences among the taxa of interest. Most orthology inference programs available for use in phylogenomics rely on small sets of pre-defined orthologs from model organisms or phenetic approaches such as all-versus-all sequence comparisons followed by Markov graph-based clustering. Such approaches have high sensitivity but may erroneously include paralogous sequences. We developed PhyloTreePruner, a software utility that uses a phylogenetic approach to refine orthology inferences made using phenetic methods. PhyloTreePruner checks single-gene trees for evidence of paralogy and generates a new alignment for each group containing only sequences inferred to be orthologs. Importantly, PhyloTreePruner takes into account support values on the tree and avoids unnecessarily deleting sequences in cases where a weakly supported tree topology incorrectly indicates paralogy. A test of PhyloTreePruner on a dataset generated from 11 completely sequenced arthropod genomes identified 2,027 orthologous groups sampled for all taxa. Phylogenetic analysis of the concatenated supermatrix yielded a generally well-supported topology that was consistent with the current understanding of arthropod phylogeny. PhyloTreePruner is freely available from http://sourceforge.net/projects/phylotreepruner/.

Detection of Citrus Trees from Uav Dsms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ok, A. O.; Ozdarici-Ok, A.

2017-05-01

This paper presents an automated approach to detect citrus trees from digitals surface models (DSMs) as a single source. The DSMs in this study are generated from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and the proposed approach first considers the symmetric nature of the citrus trees, and it computes the orientation-based radial symmetry in an efficient way. The approach also takes into account the local maxima (LM) information to verify the output of the radial symmetry. Our contributions in this study are twofold: (i) Such an integrated approach (symmetry + LM) has not been tested to detect (citrus) trees (in orchards), and (ii) the validity of such an integrated approach has not been experienced for an input, e.g. a single DSM. Experiments are performed on five test patches. The results reveal that our approach is capable of counting most of the citrus trees without manual intervention. Comparison to the state-of-the-art reveals that the proposed approach provides notable detection performance by providing the best balance between precision and recall measures.

Tree biomass in the Swiss landscape: nationwide modelling for improved accounting for forest and non-forest trees.

PubMed

Price, B; Gomez, A; Mathys, L; Gardi, O; Schellenberger, A; Ginzler, C; Thürig, E

2017-03-01

Trees outside forest (TOF) can perform a variety of social, economic and ecological functions including carbon sequestration. However, detailed quantification of tree biomass is usually limited to forest areas. Taking advantage of structural information available from stereo aerial imagery and airborne laser scanning (ALS), this research models tree biomass using national forest inventory data and linear least-square regression and applies the model both inside and outside of forest to create a nationwide model for tree biomass (above ground and below ground). Validation of the tree biomass model against TOF data within settlement areas shows relatively low model performance (R 2 of 0.44) but still a considerable improvement on current biomass estimates used for greenhouse gas inventory and carbon accounting. We demonstrate an efficient and easily implementable approach to modelling tree biomass across a large heterogeneous nationwide area. The model offers significant opportunity for improved estimates on land use combination categories (CC) where tree biomass has either not been included or only roughly estimated until now. The ALS biomass model also offers the advantage of providing greater spatial resolution and greater within CC spatial variability compared to the current nationwide estimates.

A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

PubMed

Ashraf, M Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P-A; MacLean, David A

2015-01-01

Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and volume: 0.0008 m(3) 5-year(-1)). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and 0.0393 m(3) 5-year(-1) in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling.

A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Ashraf, M. Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P.-A.; MacLean, David A.

2015-01-01

Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm2 5-year-1 and volume: 0.0008 m3 5-year-1). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm2 5-year-1 and 0.0393 m3 5-year-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling. PMID:26173081

Estimating aboveground tree biomass on forest land in the Pacific Northwest: a comparison of approaches

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2009-01-01

Live tree biomass estimates are essential for carbon accounting, bioenergy feasibility studies, and other analyses. Several models are currently used for estimating tree biomass. Each of these incorporates different calculation methods that may significantly impact the estimates of total aboveground tree biomass, merchantable biomass, and carbon pools. Consequently,...

Response of branch growth and mortality to silvicultural treatments in coastal Douglas-fir plantations: implications for predicting tree growth.

Treesearch

A.R. Weiskittel; D. Maguire; R.A. Monserud

2007-01-01

Static models of individual tree crown attributes such as height to crown base and maximum branch diameter profile have been developed for several commercially important species. Dynamic models of individual branch growth and mortality have received less attention, but have generally been developed retrospectively by dissecting felled trees; however, this approach is...

Landscape-scale parameterization of a tree-level forest growth model: a k-nearest neighbor imputation approach incorporating LiDAR data

Treesearch

Michael J. Falkowski; Andrew T. Hudak; Nicholas L. Crookston; Paul E. Gessler; Edward H. Uebler; Alistair M. S. Smith

2010-01-01

Sustainable forest management requires timely, detailed forest inventory data across large areas, which is difficult to obtain via traditional forest inventory techniques. This study evaluated k-nearest neighbor imputation models incorporating LiDAR data to predict tree-level inventory data (individual tree height, diameter at breast height, and...

The algebra of the general Markov model on phylogenetic trees and networks.

PubMed

Sumner, J G; Holland, B R; Jarvis, P D

2012-04-01

It is known that the Kimura 3ST model of sequence evolution on phylogenetic trees can be extended quite naturally to arbitrary split systems. However, this extension relies heavily on mathematical peculiarities of the associated Hadamard transformation, and providing an analogous augmentation of the general Markov model has thus far been elusive. In this paper, we rectify this shortcoming by showing how to extend the general Markov model on trees to include incompatible edges; and even further to more general network models. This is achieved by exploring the algebra of the generators of the continuous-time Markov chain together with the “splitting” operator that generates the branching process on phylogenetic trees. For simplicity, we proceed by discussing the two state case and then show that our results are easily extended to more states with little complication. Intriguingly, upon restriction of the two state general Markov model to the parameter space of the binary symmetric model, our extension is indistinguishable from the Hadamard approach only on trees; as soon as any incompatible splits are introduced the two approaches give rise to differing probability distributions with disparate structure. Through exploration of a simple example, we give an argument that our extension to more general networks has desirable properties that the previous approaches do not share. In particular, our construction allows for convergent evolution of previously divergent lineages; a property that is of significant interest for biological applications.

Modular techniques for dynamic fault-tree analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Dugan, Joanne B.

1992-01-01

It is noted that current approaches used to assess the dependability of complex systems such as Space Station Freedom and the Air Traffic Control System are incapable of handling the size and complexity of these highly integrated designs. A novel technique for modeling such systems which is built upon current techniques in Markov theory and combinatorial analysis is described. It enables the development of a hierarchical representation of system behavior which is more flexible than either technique alone. A solution strategy which is based on an object-oriented approach to model representation and evaluation is discussed. The technique is virtually transparent to the user since the fault tree models can be built graphically and the objects defined automatically. The tree modularization procedure allows the two model types, Markov and combinatoric, to coexist and does not require that the entire fault tree be translated to a Markov chain for evaluation. This effectively reduces the size of the Markov chain required and enables solutions with less truncation, making analysis of longer mission times possible. Using the fault-tolerant parallel processor as an example, a model is built and solved for a specific mission scenario and the solution approach is illustrated in detail.

Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klauer, Karl Christoph

2010-01-01

Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

The efficacy of using inventory data to develop optimal diameter increment models

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg

2002-01-01

Most optimal tree diameter growth models have arisen through either the conceptualization of physiological processes or the adaptation of empirical increment models. However, surprisingly little effort has been invested in the melding of these approaches even though it is possible to develop theoretically sound, computationally efficient optimal tree growth models...

Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent.

PubMed

Allman, Elizabeth S; Degnan, James H; Rhodes, John A

2011-06-01

Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals-each with many genes-splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.

Predicting diabetes mellitus using SMOTE and ensemble machine learning approach: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) project.

PubMed

Alghamdi, Manal; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Keteyian, Steven; Brawner, Clinton; Ehrman, Jonathan; Sakr, Sherif

2017-01-01

Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree) and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92). The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

Bayesian Ensemble Trees (BET) for Clustering and Prediction in Heterogeneous Data

PubMed Central

Duan, Leo L.; Clancy, John P.; Szczesniak, Rhonda D.

2016-01-01

We propose a novel “tree-averaging” model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian Ensemble Trees (BET) and model them as a Dirichlet process. We show that BET determines the optimal number of trees by adapting to the data heterogeneity. Compared with the other ensemble methods, BET requires much fewer trees and shows equivalent prediction accuracy using weighted averaging. Moreover, each tree in BET provides variable selection criterion and interpretation for each subset. We developed an efficient estimating procedure with improved estimation strategies in both CART and mixture models. We demonstrate these advantages of BET with simulations and illustrate the approach with a real-world data example involving regression of lung function measurements obtained from patients with cystic fibrosis. Supplemental materials are available online. PMID:27524872

The Inference of Gene Trees with Species Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien

2015-01-01

This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree–species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree–species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution. PMID:25070970

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderegg, William R.L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Allen, Craig D.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Bentz, Barbara; Hood, Sharon; Lichstein, Jeremy W.; Macalady, Alison K.; McDowell, Nate G.; Pan, Yude; Raffa, Kenneth; Sala, Anna; Shaw, John D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Tague, Christina L.; Zeppel, Melanie

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects – bark beetles and defoliators – which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree–insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

A tree-like Bayesian structure learning algorithm for small-sample datasets from complex biological model systems.

PubMed

Yin, Weiwei; Garimalla, Swetha; Moreno, Alberto; Galinski, Mary R; Styczynski, Mark P

2015-08-28

There are increasing efforts to bring high-throughput systems biology techniques to bear on complex animal model systems, often with a goal of learning about underlying regulatory network structures (e.g., gene regulatory networks). However, complex animal model systems typically have significant limitations on cohort sizes, number of samples, and the ability to perform follow-up and validation experiments. These constraints are particularly problematic for many current network learning approaches, which require large numbers of samples and may predict many more regulatory relationships than actually exist. Here, we test the idea that by leveraging the accuracy and efficiency of classifiers, we can construct high-quality networks that capture important interactions between variables in datasets with few samples. We start from a previously-developed tree-like Bayesian classifier and generalize its network learning approach to allow for arbitrary depth and complexity of tree-like networks. Using four diverse sample networks, we demonstrate that this approach performs consistently better at low sample sizes than the Sparse Candidate Algorithm, a representative approach for comparison because it is known to generate Bayesian networks with high positive predictive value. We develop and demonstrate a resampling-based approach to enable the identification of a viable root for the learned tree-like network, important for cases where the root of a network is not known a priori. We also develop and demonstrate an integrated resampling-based approach to the reduction of variable space for the learning of the network. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this approach via the analysis of a transcriptional dataset of a malaria challenge in a non-human primate model system, Macaca mulatta, suggesting the potential to capture indicators of the earliest stages of cellular differentiation during leukopoiesis. We demonstrate that by starting from effective and efficient approaches for creating classifiers, we can identify interesting tree-like network structures with significant ability to capture the relationships in the training data. This approach represents a promising strategy for inferring networks with high positive predictive value under the constraint of small numbers of samples, meeting a need that will only continue to grow as more high-throughput studies are applied to complex model systems.

Choosing appropriate subpopulations for modeling tree canopy cover nationwide

Treesearch

Gretchen G. Moisen; John W. Coulston; Barry T. Wilson; Warren B. Cohen; Mark V. Finco

2012-01-01

In prior national mapping efforts, the country has been divided into numerous ecologically similar mapping zones, and individual models have been constructed for each zone. Additionally, a hierarchical approach has been taken within zones to first mask out areas of nonforest, then target models of tree attributes within forested areas only. This results in many models...

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Fisher, Rosie A; Allen, Craig D; Aukema, Juliann; Bentz, Barbara; Hood, Sharon; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Macalady, Alison K; McDowell, Nate; Pan, Yude; Raffa, Kenneth; Sala, Anna; Shaw, John D; Stephenson, Nathan L; Tague, Christina; Zeppel, Melanie

2015-11-01

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects - bark beetles and defoliators - which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Modeling Tree Growth Taking into Account Carbon Source and Sink Limitations.

PubMed

Hayat, Amaury; Hacket-Pain, Andrew J; Pretzsch, Hans; Rademacher, Tim T; Friend, Andrew D

2017-01-01

Increasing CO 2 concentrations are strongly controlled by the behavior of established forests, which are believed to be a major current sink of atmospheric CO 2 . There are many models which predict forest responses to environmental changes but they are almost exclusively carbon source (i.e., photosynthesis) driven. Here we present a model for an individual tree that takes into account the intrinsic limits of meristems and cellular growth rates, as well as control mechanisms within the tree that influence its diameter and height growth over time. This new framework is built on process-based understanding combined with differential equations solved by numerical method. Our aim is to construct a model framework of tree growth for replacing current formulations in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, and so address the issue of the terrestrial carbon sink. Our approach was successfully tested for stands of beech trees in two different sites representing part of a long-term forest yield experiment in Germany. This model provides new insights into tree growth and limits to tree height, and addresses limitations of previous models with respect to sink-limited growth.

A conceptual approach to approximate tree root architecture in infinite slope models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmaltz, Elmar; Glade, Thomas

2016-04-01

Vegetation-related properties - particularly tree root distribution and coherent hydrologic and mechanical effects on the underlying soil mantle - are commonly not considered in infinite slope models. Indeed, from a geotechnical point of view, these effects appear to be difficult to be reproduced reliably in a physically-based modelling approach. The growth of a tree and the expansion of its root architecture are directly connected with both intrinsic properties such as species and age, and extrinsic factors like topography, availability of nutrients, climate and soil type. These parameters control four main issues of the tree root architecture: 1) Type of rooting; 2) maximum growing distance to the tree stem (radius r); 3) maximum growing depth (height h); and 4) potential deformation of the root system. Geometric solids are able to approximate the distribution of a tree root system. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether it is possible to implement root systems and the connected hydrological and mechanical attributes sufficiently in a 3-dimensional slope stability model. Hereby, a spatio-dynamic vegetation module should cope with the demands of performance, computation time and significance. However, in this presentation, we focus only on the distribution of roots. The assumption is that the horizontal root distribution around a tree stem on a 2-dimensional plane can be described by a circle with the stem located at the centroid and a distinct radius r that is dependent on age and species. We classified three main types of tree root systems and reproduced the species-age-related root distribution with three respective mathematical solids in a synthetic 3-dimensional hillslope ambience. Thus, two solids in an Euclidian space were distinguished to represent the three root systems: i) cylinders with radius r and height h, whilst the dimension of latter defines the shape of a taproot-system or a shallow-root-system respectively; ii) elliptic paraboloids represent a cordate-root-system with radius r, height h and a constant, species-independent curvature. This procedure simplifies the classification of tree species into the three defined geometric solids. In this study we introduce a conceptual approach to estimate the 2- and 3-dimensional distribution of different tree root systems, and to implement it in a raster environment, as it is used in infinite slope models. Hereto we used the PCRaster extension in a python framework. The results show that root distribution and root growth are spatially reproducible in a simple raster framework. The outputs exhibit significant effects for a synthetically generated slope on local scale for equal time-steps. The preliminary results depict an initial step to develop a vegetation module that can be coupled with hydro-mechanical slope stability models. This approach is expected to yield a valuable contribution to the implementation of vegetation-related properties, in particular effects of root-reinforcement, into physically-based approaches using infinite slope models.

On joint subtree distributions under two evolutionary models.

PubMed

Wu, Taoyang; Choi, Kwok Pui

2016-04-01

In population and evolutionary biology, hypotheses about micro-evolutionary and macro-evolutionary processes are commonly tested by comparing the shape indices of empirical evolutionary trees with those predicted by neutral models. A key ingredient in this approach is the ability to compute and quantify distributions of various tree shape indices under random models of interest. As a step to meet this challenge, in this paper we investigate the joint distribution of cherries and pitchforks (that is, subtrees with two and three leaves) under two widely used null models: the Yule-Harding-Kingman (YHK) model and the proportional to distinguishable arrangements (PDA) model. Based on two novel recursive formulae, we propose a dynamic approach to numerically compute the exact joint distribution (and hence the marginal distributions) for trees of any size. We also obtained insights into the statistical properties of trees generated under these two models, including a constant correlation between the cherry and the pitchfork distributions under the YHK model, and the log-concavity and unimodality of the cherry distributions under both models. In addition, we show that there exists a unique change point for the cherry distributions between these two models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fitting and Calibrating a Multilevel Mixed-Effects Stem Taper Model for Maritime Pine in NW Spain

PubMed Central

Arias-Rodil, Manuel; Castedo-Dorado, Fernando; Cámara-Obregón, Asunción; Diéguez-Aranda, Ulises

2015-01-01

Stem taper data are usually hierarchical (several measurements per tree, and several trees per plot), making application of a multilevel mixed-effects modelling approach essential. However, correlation between trees in the same plot/stand has often been ignored in previous studies. Fitting and calibration of a variable-exponent stem taper function were conducted using data from 420 trees felled in even-aged maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in NW Spain. In the fitting step, the tree level explained much more variability than the plot level, and therefore calibration at plot level was omitted. Several stem heights were evaluated for measurement of the additional diameter needed for calibration at tree level. Calibration with an additional diameter measured at between 40 and 60% of total tree height showed the greatest improvement in volume and diameter predictions. If additional diameter measurement is not available, the fixed-effects model fitted by the ordinary least squares technique should be used. Finally, we also evaluated how the expansion of parameters with random effects affects the stem taper prediction, as we consider this a key question when applying the mixed-effects modelling approach to taper equations. The results showed that correlation between random effects should be taken into account when assessing the influence of random effects in stem taper prediction. PMID:26630156

Extensions and applications of ensemble-of-trees methods in machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleich, Justin

Ensemble-of-trees algorithms have emerged to the forefront of machine learning due to their ability to generate high forecasting accuracy for a wide array of regression and classification problems. Classic ensemble methodologies such as random forests (RF) and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) rely on algorithmic procedures to generate fits to data. In contrast, more recent ensemble techniques such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Dynamic Trees (DT) focus on an underlying Bayesian probability model to generate the fits. These new probability model-based approaches show much promise versus their algorithmic counterparts, but also offer substantial room for improvement. The first part of this thesis focuses on methodological advances for ensemble-of-trees techniques with an emphasis on the more recent Bayesian approaches. In particular, we focus on extensions of BART in four distinct ways. First, we develop a more robust implementation of BART for both research and application. We then develop a principled approach to variable selection for BART as well as the ability to naturally incorporate prior information on important covariates into the algorithm. Next, we propose a method for handling missing data that relies on the recursive structure of decision trees and does not require imputation. Last, we relax the assumption of homoskedasticity in the BART model to allow for parametric modeling of heteroskedasticity. The second part of this thesis returns to the classic algorithmic approaches in the context of classification problems with asymmetric costs of forecasting errors. First we consider the performance of RF and SGB more broadly and demonstrate its superiority to logistic regression for applications in criminology with asymmetric costs. Next, we use RF to forecast unplanned hospital readmissions upon patient discharge with asymmetric costs taken into account. Finally, we explore the construction of stable decision trees for forecasts of violence during probation hearings in court systems.

Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R

2017-01-01

The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.

Modeling and experimental characterization of electromigration in interconnect trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, C. V.; Hau-Riege, S. P.; Andleigh, V. K.

1999-11-01

Most modeling and experimental characterization of interconnect reliability is focussed on simple straight lines terminating at pads or vias. However, laid-out integrated circuits often have interconnects with junctions and wide-to-narrow transitions. In carrying out circuit-level reliability assessments it is important to be able to assess the reliability of these more complex shapes, generally referred to as `trees.' An interconnect tree consists of continuously connected high-conductivity metal within one layer of metallization. Trees terminate at diffusion barriers at vias and contacts, and, in the general case, can have more than one terminating branch when they include junctions. We have extended the understanding of `immortality' demonstrated and analyzed for straight stud-to-stud lines, to trees of arbitrary complexity. This leads to a hierarchical approach for identifying immortal trees for specific circuit layouts and models for operation. To complete a circuit-level-reliability analysis, it is also necessary to estimate the lifetimes of the mortal trees. We have developed simulation tools that allow modeling of stress evolution and failure in arbitrarily complex trees. We are testing our models and simulations through comparisons with experiments on simple trees, such as lines broken into two segments with different currents in each segment. Models, simulations and early experimental results on the reliability of interconnect trees are shown to be consistent.

Effect of weed control treatments on total leaf area of plantation black walnut (Juglans nigra)

Treesearch

Jason Cook; Michael R. Saunders

2013-01-01

Determining total tree leaf area is necessary for describing tree carbon balance, growth efficiency, and other measures used in tree-level and stand-level physiological growth models. We examined the effects of vegetation control methods on the total leaf area of sapling-size plantation black walnut trees using allometric approaches. We found significant differences in...

Combining binary decision tree and geostatistical methods to estimate snow distribution in a mountain watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balk, Benjamin; Elder, Kelly

2000-01-01

We model the spatial distribution of snow across a mountain basin using an approach that combines binary decision tree and geostatistical techniques. In April 1997 and 1998, intensive snow surveys were conducted in the 6.9‐km2 Loch Vale watershed (LVWS), Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Binary decision trees were used to model the large‐scale variations in snow depth, while the small‐scale variations were modeled through kriging interpolation methods. Binary decision trees related depth to the physically based independent variables of net solar radiation, elevation, slope, and vegetation cover type. These decision tree models explained 54–65% of the observed variance in the depth measurements. The tree‐based modeled depths were then subtracted from the measured depths, and the resulting residuals were spatially distributed across LVWS through kriging techniques. The kriged estimates of the residuals were added to the tree‐based modeled depths to produce a combined depth model. The combined depth estimates explained 60–85% of the variance in the measured depths. Snow densities were mapped across LVWS using regression analysis. Snow‐covered area was determined from high‐resolution aerial photographs. Combining the modeled depths and densities with a snow cover map produced estimates of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalence (SWE). This modeling approach offers improvement over previous methods of estimating SWE distribution in mountain basins.

Modeling bidirectional reflectance of forests and woodlands using Boolean models and geometric optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahler, Alan H.; Jupp, David L. B.

1990-01-01

Geometric-optical discrete-element mathematical models for forest canopies have been developed using the Boolean logic and models of Serra. The geometric-optical approach is considered to be particularly well suited to describing the bidirectional reflectance of forest woodland canopies, where the concentration of leaf material within crowns and the resulting between-tree gaps make plane-parallel, radiative-transfer models inappropriate. The approach leads to invertible formulations, in which the spatial and directional variance provides the means for remote estimation of tree crown size, shape, and total cover from remotedly sensed imagery.

Inverse modeling and animation of growing single-stemmed trees at interactive rates

Treesearch

S. Rudnick; L. Linsen; E.G. McPherson

2007-01-01

For city planning purposes, animations of growing trees of several species can be used to deduce which species may best fit a particular environment. The models used for the animation must conform to real measured data. We present an approach for inverse modeling to fit global growth parameters. The model comprises local production rules, which are iteratively and...

Tree-Level Hydrodynamic Approach for Improved Stomatal Conductance Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirfenderesgi, G.; Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2014-12-01

The land-surface models do not mechanistically resolve hydrodynamic processes within the tree. The Finite-Elements Tree-Crown Hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is based on the pervious FETCH model approach, but with finite difference numerics, and simplified single-beam conduit system. FETCH2 simulates water flow through the tree as a simplified system of porous media conduits. It explicitly resolves spatiotemporal hydraulic stresses throughout the tree's vertical extent that cannot be easily represented using other stomatal-conductance models. Empirical equations relate water potential at the stem to stomata conductance at leaves connected to the stem (through unresolved branches) at that height. While highly simplified, this approach bring some realism to the simulation of stomata conductance because the stomata can respond to stem water potential, rather than an assumed direct relationship with soil moisture, as is currently the case in almost all models. By enabling mechanistic simulation of hydrological traits, such as xylem conductivity, conductive area per DBH, vertical distribution of leaf area and maximal and minimal water content in the xylem, and their effect of the dynamics of water flow in the tree system, the FETCH2 modeling system enhanced our understanding of the role of hydraulic limitations on an experimental forest plot short-term water stresses that lead to tradeoffs between water and light availability for transpiring leaves in forest ecosystems. FETCH2 is particularly suitable to resolve the effects of structural differences between tree and species and size groups, and the consequences of differences in hydraulic strategies of different species. We leverage on a large dataset of sap flow from 60 trees of 4 species at our experimental plot at the University of Michigan Biological Station. Comparison of the sap flow and transpiration patterns in this site and an undisturbed control site shows significant difference in hydraulic strategies between species which affect their response to the disturbance. We used FETCH2 to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the total stand-level transpiration to the inter-specific differences in hydraulic strategies and used the results to reflect on the future trajectory of the forest, in terms of species composition and transpiration.

Stimulating seedling growth in early stages of secondary forest succession: a modeling approach to guide tree liberation

PubMed Central

van Kuijk, Marijke; Anten, Niels P. R.; Oomen, Roelof J.; Schieving, Feike

2014-01-01

Excessive growth of non-woody plants and shrubs on degraded lands can strongly hamper tree growth and thus secondary forest succession. A common method to accelerate succession, called liberation, involves opening up the vegetation canopy around young target trees. This can increase growth of target trees by reducing competition for light with neighboring plants. However, liberation has not always had the desired effect, likely due to differences in light requirement between tree species. Here we present a 3D-model, which calculates photosynthetic rate of individual trees in a vegetation stand. It enables us to examine how stature, crown structure, and physiological traits of target trees and characteristics of the surrounding vegetation together determine effects of light on tree growth. The model was applied to a liberation experiment conducted with three pioneer species in a young secondary forest in Vietnam. Species responded differently to the treatment depending on their height, crown structure and their shade-tolerance level. Model simulations revealed practical thresholds over which the tree growth response is heavily influenced by the height and density of surrounding vegetation and gap radius. There were strong correlations between calculated photosynthetic rates and observed growth: the model was well able to predict growth of trees in young forests and the effects of liberation there upon. Thus, our model serves as a useful tool to analyze light competition between young trees and surrounding vegetation and may help assess the potential effect of tree liberation. PMID:25101100

Understanding tree growth responses after partial cuttings: A new approach

PubMed Central

Rossi, Sergio; Lussier, Jean-Martin; Walsh, Denis; Morin, Hubert

2017-01-01

Forest ecosystem management heads towards the use of partial cuttings. However, the wide variation in growth response of residual trees remains unexplained, preventing a suitable prediction of forest productivity. The aim of the study was to assess individual growth and identify the driving factors involved in the responses of residual trees. Six study blocks in even-aged black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] stands of the eastern Canadian boreal forest were submitted to experimental shelterwood and seed-tree treatments. Individual-tree models were applied to 1039 trees to analyze their patterns of radial growth during the 10 years after partial cutting by using the nonlinear Schnute function on tree-ring series. The trees exhibited different growth patterns. A sigmoid growth was detected in 32% of trees, mainly in control plots of older stands. Forty-seven percent of trees located in the interior of residual strips showed an S-shape, which was influenced by stand mortality, harvested intensity and dominant height. Individuals showing an exponential pattern produced the greatest radial growth after cutting and were edge trees of younger stands with higher dominant height. A steady growth decline was observed in 4% of trees, represented by the individuals suppressed and insensitive to the treatment. The analyses demonstrated that individual nonlinear models are able to assess the variability in growth within the stand and the factors involved in the occurrence of the different growth patterns, thus improving understanding of the tree responses to partial cutting. This new approach can sustain forest management strategies by defining the best conditions to optimize the growth yield of residual trees. PMID:28222200

Understanding tree growth responses after partial cuttings: A new approach.

PubMed

Montoro Girona, Miguel; Rossi, Sergio; Lussier, Jean-Martin; Walsh, Denis; Morin, Hubert

2017-01-01

Forest ecosystem management heads towards the use of partial cuttings. However, the wide variation in growth response of residual trees remains unexplained, preventing a suitable prediction of forest productivity. The aim of the study was to assess individual growth and identify the driving factors involved in the responses of residual trees. Six study blocks in even-aged black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] stands of the eastern Canadian boreal forest were submitted to experimental shelterwood and seed-tree treatments. Individual-tree models were applied to 1039 trees to analyze their patterns of radial growth during the 10 years after partial cutting by using the nonlinear Schnute function on tree-ring series. The trees exhibited different growth patterns. A sigmoid growth was detected in 32% of trees, mainly in control plots of older stands. Forty-seven percent of trees located in the interior of residual strips showed an S-shape, which was influenced by stand mortality, harvested intensity and dominant height. Individuals showing an exponential pattern produced the greatest radial growth after cutting and were edge trees of younger stands with higher dominant height. A steady growth decline was observed in 4% of trees, represented by the individuals suppressed and insensitive to the treatment. The analyses demonstrated that individual nonlinear models are able to assess the variability in growth within the stand and the factors involved in the occurrence of the different growth patterns, thus improving understanding of the tree responses to partial cutting. This new approach can sustain forest management strategies by defining the best conditions to optimize the growth yield of residual trees.

An analysis of tree mortality using high resolution remotely-sensed data for mixed-conifer forests in San Diego county

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Mary Pyott

ABSTRACT An Analysis of Tree Mortality Using High Resolution Remotely-Sensed Data for Mixed-Conifer Forests in San Diego County by Mary Pyott Freeman The montane mixed-conifer forests of San Diego County are currently experiencing extensive tree mortality, which is defined as dieback where whole stands are affected. This mortality is likely the result of the complex interaction of many variables, such as altered fire regimes, climatic conditions such as drought, as well as forest pathogens and past management strategies. Conifer tree mortality and its spatial pattern and change over time were examined in three components. In component 1, two remote sensing approaches were compared for their effectiveness in delineating dead trees, a spatial contextual approach and an OBIA (object based image analysis) approach, utilizing various dates and spatial resolutions of airborne image data. For each approach transforms and masking techniques were explored, which were found to improve classifications, and an object-based assessment approach was tested. In component 2, dead tree maps produced by the most effective techniques derived from component 1 were utilized for point pattern and vector analyses to further understand spatio-temporal changes in tree mortality for the years 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2005 for three study areas: Palomar, Volcan and Laguna mountains. Plot-based fieldwork was conducted to further assess mortality patterns. Results indicate that conifer mortality was significantly clustered, increased substantially between 2002 and 2005, and was non-random with respect to tree species and diameter class sizes. In component 3, multiple environmental variables were used in Generalized Linear Model (GLM-logistic regression) and decision tree classifier model development, revealing the importance of climate and topographic factors such as precipitation and elevation, in being able to predict areas of high risk for tree mortality. The results from this study highlight the importance of multi-scale spatial as well as temporal analyses, in order to understand mixed-conifer forest structure, dynamics, and processes of decline, which can lead to more sustainable management of forests with continued natural and anthropogenic disturbance.

Mixed-up trees: the structure of phylogenetic mixtures.

PubMed

Matsen, Frederick A; Mossel, Elchanan; Steel, Mike

2008-05-01

In this paper, we apply new geometric and combinatorial methods to the study of phylogenetic mixtures. The focus of the geometric approach is to describe the geometry of phylogenetic mixture distributions for the two state random cluster model, which is a generalization of the two state symmetric (CFN) model. In particular, we show that the set of mixture distributions forms a convex polytope and we calculate its dimension; corollaries include a simple criterion for when a mixture of branch lengths on the star tree can mimic the site pattern frequency vector of a resolved quartet tree. Furthermore, by computing volumes of polytopes we can clarify how "common" non-identifiable mixtures are under the CFN model. We also present a new combinatorial result which extends any identifiability result for a specific pair of trees of size six to arbitrary pairs of trees. Next we present a positive result showing identifiability of rates-across-sites models. Finally, we answer a question raised in a previous paper concerning "mixed branch repulsion" on trees larger than quartet trees under the CFN model.

Genomic-based multiple-trait evaluation in Eucalyptus grandis using dominant DArT markers.

PubMed

Cappa, Eduardo P; El-Kassaby, Yousry A; Muñoz, Facundo; Garcia, Martín N; Villalba, Pamela V; Klápště, Jaroslav; Marcucci Poltri, Susana N

2018-06-01

We investigated the impact of combining the pedigree- and genomic-based relationship matrices in a multiple-trait individual-tree mixed model (a.k.a., multiple-trait combined approach) on the estimates of heritability and on the genomic correlations between growth and stem straightness in an open-pollinated Eucalyptus grandis population. Additionally, the added advantage of incorporating genomic information on the theoretical accuracies of parents and offspring breeding values was evaluated. Our results suggested that the use of the combined approach for estimating heritabilities and additive genetic correlations in multiple-trait evaluations is advantageous and including genomic information increases the expected accuracy of breeding values. Furthermore, the multiple-trait combined approach was proven to be superior to the single-trait combined approach in predicting breeding values, in particular for low-heritability traits. Finally, our results advocate the use of the combined approach in forest tree progeny testing trials, specifically when a multiple-trait individual-tree mixed model is considered. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

PubMed

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

Vertical stratification of forest canopy for segmentation of understory trees within small-footprint airborne LiDAR point clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamraz, Hamid; Contreras, Marco A.; Zhang, Jun

2017-08-01

Airborne LiDAR point cloud representing a forest contains 3D data, from which vertical stand structure even of understory layers can be derived. This paper presents a tree segmentation approach for multi-story stands that stratifies the point cloud to canopy layers and segments individual tree crowns within each layer using a digital surface model based tree segmentation method. The novelty of the approach is the stratification procedure that separates the point cloud to an overstory and multiple understory tree canopy layers by analyzing vertical distributions of LiDAR points within overlapping locales. The procedure does not make a priori assumptions about the shape and size of the tree crowns and can, independent of the tree segmentation method, be utilized to vertically stratify tree crowns of forest canopies. We applied the proposed approach to the University of Kentucky Robinson Forest - a natural deciduous forest with complex and highly variable terrain and vegetation structure. The segmentation results showed that using the stratification procedure strongly improved detecting understory trees (from 46% to 68%) at the cost of introducing a fair number of over-segmented understory trees (increased from 1% to 16%), while barely affecting the overall segmentation quality of overstory trees. Results of vertical stratification of the canopy showed that the point density of understory canopy layers were suboptimal for performing a reasonable tree segmentation, suggesting that acquiring denser LiDAR point clouds would allow more improvements in segmenting understory trees. As shown by inspecting correlations of the results with forest structure, the segmentation approach is applicable to a variety of forest types.

Model-Based Design of Tree WSNs for Decentralized Detection.

PubMed

Tantawy, Ashraf; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Biswas, Gautam

2015-08-20

The classical decentralized detection problem of finding the optimal decision rules at the sensor and fusion center, as well as variants that introduce physical channel impairments have been studied extensively in the literature. The deployment of WSNs in decentralized detection applications brings new challenges to the field. Protocols for different communication layers have to be co-designed to optimize the detection performance. In this paper, we consider the communication network design problem for a tree WSN. We pursue a system-level approach where a complete model for the system is developed that captures the interactions between different layers, as well as different sensor quality measures. For network optimization, we propose a hierarchical optimization algorithm that lends itself to the tree structure, requiring only local network information. The proposed design approach shows superior performance over several contentionless and contention-based network design approaches.

Identifying ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth

PubMed Central

Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Caraglio, Yves; Lavergne, Christian; Guédon, Yann

2009-01-01

Background and Aims This study aimed to identify and characterize the ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth. In the proposed approach, the tree growth data typically correspond to the retrospective measurement of annual shoot characteristics (e.g. length) along the trunk. Methods Dedicated statistical models (semi-Markov switching linear mixed models) were applied to data sets of Corsican pine and sessile oak. In the semi-Markov switching linear mixed models estimated from these data sets, the underlying semi-Markov chain represents both the succession of growth phases and their lengths, while the linear mixed models represent both the influence of climatic factors and the inter-individual heterogeneity within each growth phase. Key Results On the basis of these integrative statistical models, it is shown that growth phases are not only defined by average growth level but also by growth fluctuation amplitudes in response to climatic factors and inter-individual heterogeneity and that the individual tree status within the population may change between phases. Species plasticity affected the response to climatic factors while tree origin, sampling strategy and silvicultural interventions impacted inter-individual heterogeneity. Conclusions The transposition of the proposed integrative statistical modelling approach to cambial growth in relation to climatic factors and the study of the relationship between apical growth and cambial growth constitute the next steps in this research. PMID:19684021

Growth response of conifers in Adirondack plantations to changing environment: Model approaches based on stem-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Y.

1993-01-01

Based on model approaches, three conifer species, red pine, Norway spruce and Scots pine grown in plantations at Pack Demonstration Forest, in the southeastern Adirondack mountains of New York, were chosen to study growth response to different environmental changes, including silvicultural treatments and changes in climate and chemical environment. Detailed stem analysis data provided a basis for constructing tree growth models. These models were organized into three groups: morphological, dynamic and predictive. The morphological model was designed to evaluate relationship between tree attributes and interactive influences of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the annual increments. Three types of morphological patternsmore » have been characterized: space-time patterns of whole-stem rings, intrinsic wood deposition pattern along the tree-stem, and bolewood allocation ratio patterns along the tree-stem. The dynamic model reflects the growth process as a system which responds to extrinsic signal inputs, including fertilization pulses, spacing effects and climatic disturbance, as well as intrinsic feedback. Growth signals indicative of climatic effects were used to construct growth-climate models using both multivariate analysis and Kalman filter methods. The predictive model utilized GCMs and growth-climate relationships to forecast tree growth responses in relation to future scenarios of CO[sub 2]-induced climate change. Prediction results indicate that different conifer species have individualistic growth response to future climatic change and suggest possible changes in future growth and distribution of naturally occurring conifers in this region.« less

Reversible polymorphism-aware phylogenetic models and their application to tree inference.

PubMed

Schrempf, Dominik; Minh, Bui Quang; De Maio, Nicola; von Haeseler, Arndt; Kosiol, Carolin

2016-10-21

We present a reversible Polymorphism-Aware Phylogenetic Model (revPoMo) for species tree estimation from genome-wide data. revPoMo enables the reconstruction of large scale species trees for many within-species samples. It expands the alphabet of DNA substitution models to include polymorphic states, thereby, naturally accounting for incomplete lineage sorting. We implemented revPoMo in the maximum likelihood software IQ-TREE. A simulation study and an application to great apes data show that the runtimes of our approach and standard substitution models are comparable but that revPoMo has much better accuracy in estimating trees, divergence times and mutation rates. The advantage of revPoMo is that an increase of sample size per species improves estimations but does not increase runtime. Therefore, revPoMo is a valuable tool with several applications, from speciation dating to species tree reconstruction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Maximum parsimony, substitution model, and probability phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Weng, J F; Thomas, D A; Mareels, I

2011-01-01

The problem of inferring phylogenies (phylogenetic trees) is one of the main problems in computational biology. There are three main methods for inferring phylogenies-Maximum Parsimony (MP), Distance Matrix (DM) and Maximum Likelihood (ML), of which the MP method is the most well-studied and popular method. In the MP method the optimization criterion is the number of substitutions of the nucleotides computed by the differences in the investigated nucleotide sequences. However, the MP method is often criticized as it only counts the substitutions observable at the current time and all the unobservable substitutions that really occur in the evolutionary history are omitted. In order to take into account the unobservable substitutions, some substitution models have been established and they are now widely used in the DM and ML methods but these substitution models cannot be used within the classical MP method. Recently the authors proposed a probability representation model for phylogenetic trees and the reconstructed trees in this model are called probability phylogenetic trees. One of the advantages of the probability representation model is that it can include a substitution model to infer phylogenetic trees based on the MP principle. In this paper we explain how to use a substitution model in the reconstruction of probability phylogenetic trees and show the advantage of this approach with examples.

A Test of Carbon and Oxygen Stable Isotope Ratio Process Models in Tree Rings.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roden, J. S.; Farquhar, G. D.

2008-12-01

Stable isotopes ratios of carbon and oxygen in tree ring cellulose have been used to infer environmental change. Process-based models have been developed to clarify the potential of historic tree ring records for meaningful paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, isotopic variation can be influenced by multiple environmental factors making simplistic interpretations problematic. Recently, the dual isotope approach, where the variation in one stable isotope ratio (e.g. oxygen) is used to constrain the interpretation of variation in another (e.g. carbon), has been shown to have the potential to de-convolute isotopic analysis. However, this approach requires further testing to determine its applicability for paleo-reconstructions using tree-ring time series. We present a study where the information needed to parameterize mechanistic models for both carbon and oxygen stable isotope ratios were collected in controlled environment chambers for two species (Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus globulus). The seedlings were exposed to treatments designed to modify leaf temperature, transpiration rates, stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity. Both species were grown for over 100 days under two humidity regimes that differed by 20%. Stomatal conductance was significantly different between species and for seedlings under drought conditions but not between other treatments or humidity regimes. The treatments produced large differences in transpiration rate and photosynthesis. Treatments that effected photosynthetic rates but not stomatal conductance influenced carbon isotope discrimination more than those that influenced primarily conductance. The various treatments produced a range in oxygen isotope ratios of 7 ‰. Process models predicted greater oxygen isotope enrichment in tree ring cellulose than observed. The oxygen isotope ratios of bulk leaf water were reasonably well predicted by current steady-state models. However, the fractional difference between models that predict bulk leaf water versus the site of evaporation did not increase with transpiration rates. In conclusion, although the dual isotope approach may better constrain interpretation of isotopic variation, more work is required before its predictive power can be applied to tree-ring archives.

Species Tree Inference Using a Mixture Model.

PubMed

Ullah, Ikram; Parviainen, Pekka; Lagergren, Jens

2015-09-01

Species tree reconstruction has been a subject of substantial research due to its central role across biology and medicine. A species tree is often reconstructed using a set of gene trees or by directly using sequence data. In either of these cases, one of the main confounding phenomena is the discordance between a species tree and a gene tree due to evolutionary events such as duplications and losses. Probabilistic methods can resolve the discordance by coestimating gene trees and the species tree but this approach poses a scalability problem for larger data sets. We present MixTreEM-DLRS: A two-phase approach for reconstructing a species tree in the presence of gene duplications and losses. In the first phase, MixTreEM, a novel structural expectation maximization algorithm based on a mixture model is used to reconstruct a set of candidate species trees, given sequence data for monocopy gene families from the genomes under study. In the second phase, PrIME-DLRS, a method based on the DLRS model (Åkerborg O, Sennblad B, Arvestad L, Lagergren J. 2009. Simultaneous Bayesian gene tree reconstruction and reconciliation analysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 106(14):5714-5719), is used for selecting the best species tree. PrIME-DLRS can handle multicopy gene families since DLRS, apart from modeling sequence evolution, models gene duplication and loss using a gene evolution model (Arvestad L, Lagergren J, Sennblad B. 2009. The gene evolution model and computing its associated probabilities. J ACM. 56(2):1-44). We evaluate MixTreEM-DLRS using synthetic and biological data, and compare its performance with a recent genome-scale species tree reconstruction method PHYLDOG (Boussau B, Szöllősi GJ, Duret L, Gouy M, Tannier E, Daubin V. 2013. Genome-scale coestimation of species and gene trees. Genome Res. 23(2):323-330) as well as with a fast parsimony-based algorithm Duptree (Wehe A, Bansal MS, Burleigh JG, Eulenstein O. 2008. Duptree: a program for large-scale phylogenetic analyses using gene tree parsimony. Bioinformatics 24(13):1540-1541). Our method is competitive with PHYLDOG in terms of accuracy and runs significantly faster and our method outperforms Duptree in accuracy. The analysis constituted by MixTreEM without DLRS may also be used for selecting the target species tree, yielding a fast and yet accurate algorithm for larger data sets. MixTreEM is freely available at http://prime.scilifelab.se/mixtreem/. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Gibbs measures with memory of length 2 on an arbitrary-order Cayley tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akın, Hasan

In this paper, we consider the Ising-Vanniminus model on an arbitrary-order Cayley tree. We generalize the results conjectured by Akın [Chinese J. Phys. 54(4), 635-649 (2016) and Int. J. Mod. Phys. B 31(13), 1750093 (2017)] for an arbitrary-order Cayley tree. We establish the existence and a full classification of translation-invariant Gibbs measures (TIGMs) with a memory of length 2 associated with the model on arbitrary-order Cayley tree. We construct the recurrence equations corresponding to the generalized ANNNI model. We satisfy the Kolmogorov consistency condition. We propose a rigorous measure-theoretical approach to investigate the Gibbs measures with a memory of length 2 for the model. We explain if the number of branches of the tree does not change the number of Gibbs measures. Also, we try to determine when the phase transition does occur.

Individual tree crown delineation using localized contour tree method and airborne LiDAR data in coniferous forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bin; Yu, Bailang; Wu, Qiusheng; Huang, Yan; Chen, Zuoqi; Wu, Jianping

2016-10-01

Individual tree crown delineation is of great importance for forest inventory and management. The increasing availability of high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data makes it possible to delineate the crown structure of individual trees and deduce their geometric properties with high accuracy. In this study, we developed an automated segmentation method that is able to fully utilize high-resolution LiDAR data for detecting, extracting, and characterizing individual tree crowns with a multitude of geometric and topological properties. The proposed approach captures topological structure of forest and quantifies topological relationships of tree crowns by using a graph theory-based localized contour tree method, and finally segments individual tree crowns by analogy of recognizing hills from a topographic map. This approach consists of five key technical components: (1) derivation of canopy height model from airborne LiDAR data; (2) generation of contours based on the canopy height model; (3) extraction of hierarchical structures of tree crowns using the localized contour tree method; (4) delineation of individual tree crowns by segmenting hierarchical crown structure; and (5) calculation of geometric and topological properties of individual trees. We applied our new method to the Medicine Bow National Forest in the southwest of Laramie, Wyoming and the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest in the central portion of the Cascade Range of Oregon, U.S. The results reveal that the overall accuracy of individual tree crown delineation for the two study areas achieved 94.21% and 75.07%, respectively. Our method holds great potential for segmenting individual tree crowns under various forest conditions. Furthermore, the geometric and topological attributes derived from our method provide comprehensive and essential information for forest management.

Vascular system modeling in parallel environment - distributed and shared memory approaches

PubMed Central

Jurczuk, Krzysztof; Kretowski, Marek; Bezy-Wendling, Johanne

2011-01-01

The paper presents two approaches in parallel modeling of vascular system development in internal organs. In the first approach, new parts of tissue are distributed among processors and each processor is responsible for perfusing its assigned parts of tissue to all vascular trees. Communication between processors is accomplished by passing messages and therefore this algorithm is perfectly suited for distributed memory architectures. The second approach is designed for shared memory machines. It parallelizes the perfusion process during which individual processing units perform calculations concerning different vascular trees. The experimental results, performed on a computing cluster and multi-core machines, show that both algorithms provide a significant speedup. PMID:21550891

Variation in piñon pine growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress using an individual-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, M. D.; Kelsey, K.; Urza, A.; Barger, N. N.

2015-12-01

Forest and woodland ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and may be strongly affected by changing climate. Here we use an individual-based approach to model piñon pine (Pinus edulis) radial growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress. We sampled piñon pine trees at 24 sites across southwestern Colorado that varied in soil available water capacity, elevation, and latitude, obtaining a total of 552 pinon pine tree ring series. We used linear mixed effect models to assess piñon pine growth responses to climate and site-level environmental stress (mean annual climatic water deficit and soil available water capacity). Using a similar modeling approach, we also determined long-term growth trends across our gradients of environmental stress. Piñon pine growth was strongly positively associated with winter precipitation and strongly negatively associated with summer vapor pressure deficit. However, the strength of the relationship between winter precipitation and piñon pine growth was affected by site-level environmental stress. Trees at sites with greater climatic water deficit (i.e. hotter, drier sites) were more sensitive to winter precipitation. Interestingly, trees at sites with greater soil available water capacity were also more sensitive to winter precipitation, as these trees had much higher growth rates during years of high precipitation. We found weak evidence of long-term declines in piñon growth rates over the past century within our study area. Growth trends overtime did vary across our soil available water capacity gradient: trees growing at sites with higher soil available water capacity responded more positively to the cool, wet climate conditions of the 1910s and 1980s, whereas tree growth rates at sites with lower soil available water capacity declined more linearly over the last century. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of woodland ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the landscape due to differences in edaphic and physiographic factors. These results support recent dendroecology studies that emphasize the need to use a more individual-based approach to enhance our understanding of tree growth responses to climate.

A novel dendrochronological approach reveals drivers of carbon sequestration in tree species of riparian forests across spatiotemporal scales.

PubMed

Rieger, Isaak; Kowarik, Ingo; Cherubini, Paolo; Cierjacks, Arne

2017-01-01

Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration in trees is important in global C dynamics, but reliable techniques for its modeling in highly productive and heterogeneous ecosystems are limited. We applied an extended dendrochronological approach to disentangle the functioning of drivers from the atmosphere (temperature, precipitation), the lithosphere (sedimentation rate), the hydrosphere (groundwater table, river water level fluctuation), the biosphere (tree characteristics), and the anthroposphere (dike construction). Carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass of riparian Quercus robur L. and Fraxinus excelsior L. was modeled (1) over time using boosted regression tree analysis (BRT) on cross-datable trees characterized by equal annual growth ring patterns and (2) across space using a subsequent classification and regression tree analysis (CART) on cross-datable and not cross-datable trees. While C sequestration of cross-datable Q. robur responded to precipitation and temperature, cross-datable F. excelsior also responded to a low Danube river water level. However, CART revealed that C sequestration over time is governed by tree height and parameters that vary over space (magnitude of fluctuation in the groundwater table, vertical distance to mean river water level, and longitudinal distance to upstream end of the study area). Thus, a uniform response to climatic drivers of aboveground C sequestration in Q. robur was only detectable in trees of an intermediate height class and in taller trees (>21.8m) on sites where the groundwater table fluctuated little (≤0.9m). The detection of climatic drivers and the river water level in F. excelsior depended on sites at lower altitudes above the mean river water level (≤2.7m) and along a less dynamic downstream section of the study area. Our approach indicates unexploited opportunities of understanding the interplay of different environmental drivers in aboveground C sequestration. Results may support species-specific and locally adapted forest management plans to increase carbon dioxide sequestration from the atmosphere in trees. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying Risk Factors for Drug Use in an Iranian Treatment Sample: A Prediction Approach Using Decision Trees.

PubMed

Amirabadizadeh, Alireza; Nezami, Hossein; Vaughn, Michael G; Nakhaee, Samaneh; Mehrpour, Omid

2018-05-12

Substance abuse exacts considerable social and health care burdens throughout the world. The aim of this study was to create a prediction model to better identify risk factors for drug use. A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in South Khorasan Province, Iran. Of the total of 678 eligible subjects, 70% (n: 474) were randomly selected to provide a training set for constructing decision tree and multiple logistic regression (MLR) models. The remaining 30% (n: 204) were employed in a holdout sample to test the performance of the decision tree and MLR models. Predictive performance of different models was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the testing set. Independent variables were selected from demographic characteristics and history of drug use. For the decision tree model, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying people at risk for drug abuse were 66% and 75%, respectively, while the MLR model was somewhat less effective at 60% and 73%. Key independent variables in the analyses included first substance experience, age at first drug use, age, place of residence, history of cigarette use, and occupational and marital status. While study findings are exploratory and lack generalizability they do suggest that the decision tree model holds promise as an effective classification approach for identifying risk factors for drug use. Convergent with prior research in Western contexts is that age of drug use initiation was a critical factor predicting a substance use disorder.

TreePOD: Sensitivity-Aware Selection of Pareto-Optimal Decision Trees.

PubMed

Muhlbacher, Thomas; Linhardt, Lorenz; Moller, Torsten; Piringer, Harald

2018-01-01

Balancing accuracy gains with other objectives such as interpretability is a key challenge when building decision trees. However, this process is difficult to automate because it involves know-how about the domain as well as the purpose of the model. This paper presents TreePOD, a new approach for sensitivity-aware model selection along trade-offs. TreePOD is based on exploring a large set of candidate trees generated by sampling the parameters of tree construction algorithms. Based on this set, visualizations of quantitative and qualitative tree aspects provide a comprehensive overview of possible tree characteristics. Along trade-offs between two objectives, TreePOD provides efficient selection guidance by focusing on Pareto-optimal tree candidates. TreePOD also conveys the sensitivities of tree characteristics on variations of selected parameters by extending the tree generation process with a full-factorial sampling. We demonstrate how TreePOD supports a variety of tasks involved in decision tree selection and describe its integration in a holistic workflow for building and selecting decision trees. For evaluation, we illustrate a case study for predicting critical power grid states, and we report qualitative feedback from domain experts in the energy sector. This feedback suggests that TreePOD enables users with and without statistical background a confident and efficient identification of suitable decision trees.

Model-Based Design of Tree WSNs for Decentralized Detection †

PubMed Central

Tantawy, Ashraf; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Biswas, Gautam

2015-01-01

The classical decentralized detection problem of finding the optimal decision rules at the sensor and fusion center, as well as variants that introduce physical channel impairments have been studied extensively in the literature. The deployment of WSNs in decentralized detection applications brings new challenges to the field. Protocols for different communication layers have to be co-designed to optimize the detection performance. In this paper, we consider the communication network design problem for a tree WSN. We pursue a system-level approach where a complete model for the system is developed that captures the interactions between different layers, as well as different sensor quality measures. For network optimization, we propose a hierarchical optimization algorithm that lends itself to the tree structure, requiring only local network information. The proposed design approach shows superior performance over several contentionless and contention-based network design approaches. PMID:26307989

Building of fuzzy decision trees using ID3 algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begenova, S. B.; Avdeenko, T. V.

2018-05-01

Decision trees are widely used in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Such popularity is due to the fact that with the help of decision trees graphic models, text rules can be built and they are easily understood by the final user. Because of the inaccuracy of observations, uncertainties, the data, collected in the environment, often take an unclear form. Therefore, fuzzy decision trees becoming popular in the field of machine learning. This article presents a method that includes the features of the two above-mentioned approaches: a graphical representation of the rules system in the form of a tree and a fuzzy representation of the data. The approach uses such advantages as high comprehensibility of decision trees and the ability to cope with inaccurate and uncertain information in fuzzy representation. The received learning method is suitable for classifying problems with both numerical and symbolic features. In the article, solution illustrations and numerical results are given.

Estimating phylogenetic trees from genome-scale data.

PubMed

Liu, Liang; Xi, Zhenxiang; Wu, Shaoyuan; Davis, Charles C; Edwards, Scott V

2015-12-01

The heterogeneity of signals in the genomes of diverse organisms poses challenges for traditional phylogenetic analysis. Phylogenetic methods known as "species tree" methods have been proposed to directly address one important source of gene tree heterogeneity, namely the incomplete lineage sorting that occurs when evolving lineages radiate rapidly, resulting in a diversity of gene trees from a single underlying species tree. Here we review theory and empirical examples that help clarify conflicts between species tree and concatenation methods, and misconceptions in the literature about the performance of species tree methods. Considering concatenation as a special case of the multispecies coalescent model helps explain differences in the behavior of the two methods on phylogenomic data sets. Recent work suggests that species tree methods are more robust than concatenation approaches to some of the classic challenges of phylogenetic analysis, including rapidly evolving sites in DNA sequences and long-branch attraction. We show that approaches, such as binning, designed to augment the signal in species tree analyses can distort the distribution of gene trees and are inconsistent. Computationally efficient species tree methods incorporating biological realism are a key to phylogenetic analysis of whole-genome data. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

Tree-Level Hydrodynamic Approach for Modeling Aboveground Water Storage and Stomatal Conductance Highlights the Effects of Tree Hydraulic Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirfenderesgi, G.; Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Fatichi, S.; Frasson, R. P. M.; Schafer, K. V.

2016-12-01

The Finite-difference Ecosystem-scale Tree-Crown Hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is a novel tree-scale hydrodynamic model of transpiration. The FETCH2 model employs a finite difference numerical methodology and a simplified single-beam conduit system and simulates water flow through the tree as a continuum of porous media conduits. It explicitly resolves xylem water potential throughout the tree's vertical extent. Empirical equations relate water potential within the stem to stomatal conductance of the leaves at each height throughout the crown. While highly simplified, this approach brings additional realism to the simulation of transpiration by linking stomatal responses to stem water potential rather than directly to soil moisture, as is currently the case in the majority of land-surface models. FETCH2 accounts for plant hydraulic traits, such as the degree of anisohydric/isohydric response of stomata, maximal xylem conductivity, vertical distribution of leaf area, and maximal and minimal stemwater content. We used FETCH2 along with sap flow and eddy covariance data sets collected from a mixed plot of two genera (oak/pine) in Silas Little Experimental Forest, NJ, USA, to conduct an analysis of the inter-genera variation of hydraulic strategies and their effects on diurnal and seasonal transpiration dynamics. We define these strategies through the parameters that describe the genus-level transpiration and xylem conductivity responses to changes in stem water potential. A virtual experiment showed that the model was able to capture the effect of hydraulic strategies such as isohydric/anisohydric behavior on stomatal conductance under different soil-water availability conditions. Our evaluation revealed that FETCH2 considerably improved the simulation of ecosystem transpiration and latent heat flux than more conventional models.

A tree-parenchyma coupled model for lung ventilation simulation.

PubMed

Pozin, Nicolas; Montesantos, Spyridon; Katz, Ira; Pichelin, Marine; Vignon-Clementel, Irene; Grandmont, Céline

2017-11-01

In this article, we develop a lung ventilation model. The parenchyma is described as an elastic homogenized media. It is irrigated by a space-filling dyadic resistive pipe network, which represents the tracheobronchial tree. In this model, the tree and the parenchyma are strongly coupled. The tree induces an extra viscous term in the system constitutive relation, which leads, in the finite element framework, to a full matrix. We consider an efficient algorithm that takes advantage of the tree structure to enable a fast matrix-vector product computation. This framework can be used to model both free and mechanically induced respiration, in health and disease. Patient-specific lung geometries acquired from computed tomography scans are considered. Realistic Dirichlet boundary conditions can be deduced from surface registration on computed tomography images. The model is compared to a more classical exit compartment approach. Results illustrate the coupling between the tree and the parenchyma, at global and regional levels, and how conditions for the purely 0D model can be inferred. Different types of boundary conditions are tested, including a nonlinear Robin model of the surrounding lung structures. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Confronting a Process-based Model of Temperate Tree Transpiration with Data from Forests in Central Panama Exposed to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewers, B. E.; Bretfeld, M.; Millar, D.; Hall, J. S.; Beverly, D.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.; Mackay, D. S.

2016-12-01

Process-based models of tree impacts on the hydrologic cycle must include not only plant hydraulic limitations but also photosynthetic controls because plants lose water to gain carbon. The Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) is one such model. TREES includes a Bayesian model-data fusion approach that provides rigorous tests of patterns in tree transpiration data against biophysical processes in the model. TREES has been extensively tested against many temperate tree data sets including those experiencing severe and lethal drought. We test TREES against data from sap flow-scaled transpiration in 76 tropical trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) located in the Panama Canal Watershed. These data were collected during the third driest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on record in Panama during 2015/2016. Tree transpiration response to vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation was the same in the two older forests, but showed an additional response to limited soil moisture in the youngest forest. Volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old forest than in the 80+ year old forest. TREES could not simulate this difference in soil moisture without increasing simulated root area. TREES simulations were improved by including light response curves of leaf photosynthesis, root vulnerability to cavitation and canopy position impacts on light. TREES was able to simulate the anisohydric (loose stomatal regulation of leaf water potential) and isohydric (tight stomatal regulation) of the 73 trees species a priori indicating that species level information is not required. Analyses of posterior probability distributions indicates TREES model predictions of individual tree transpiration would likely be improved with more detailed root and soil moisture in all forest ages data with the most improvement likely in the 8 year old forest. Our results suggest that a biophysical tree transpiration model developed in temperate forests can be applied to the tropics and could be used to improve predictions of evapotranspiration from changing land cover in tropical hydrology models.

Potential Changes in Tree Species Richness and Forest Community Types following Climate Change

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2001-01-01

Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types were evaluated for the eastern United States according to five scenarios of future climate change resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). DISTRIB, an empirical model that uses a regression tree analysis approach, was used to generate suitable habitat, or potential future...

Quantifying allometric model uncertainty for plot-level live tree biomass stocks with a data-driven, hierarchical framework

Treesearch

Brian J. Clough; Matthew B. Russell; Grant M. Domke; Christopher W. Woodall

2016-01-01

Accurate uncertainty assessments of plot-level live tree biomass stocks are an important precursor to estimating uncertainty in annual national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) developed from forest inventory data. However, current approaches employed within the United States’ NGHGI do not specifically incorporate methods to address error in tree-scale biomass...

The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in Europe using two empirical modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobbertin, M.; Solberg, S.; Laubhann, D.; Sterba, H.; Reinds, G. J.; de Vries, W.

2009-04-01

Most recent studies show increasing forest growth in central Europe, rather than a decline as was expected due to negative effects of air pollution. While nitrogen deposition, increasing temperature and change in forest management are discussed as possible causes, quantification of the various environmental factors has rarely been undertaken. In our study, we used data from several hundreds of intensive monitoring plots from the ICP Forests network in Europe, ranging from northern Finland to Spain and southern Italy. Five-year growth data for the period 1994-1999 were available from roughly 650 plots to examine the influence of environmental factors on forest growth. Evaluations focused on the influence of nitrogen, sulphur and acid deposition, temperature, precipitation and drought. Concerning the latter meteorological variables we used the deviation from the long-term (30 years) mean. The study included the main tree species common beech (Fagus sylvatica), sessile or pedunculate oak (Quercus petraea and Q. robur), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). Two very different approaches were used. In the first approach an individual tree-based regression model was applied (Laubhahn et al., 2009), while in the second approach a stand-based model was applied (Solberg et al., 2009). The individual tree-based model had measured basal area increment of each individual tree as a growth response variable and tree size (diameter at breast height), tree competition (basal area of larger trees and stand density index), site factors (e.g. soil C/N ratio, temperature), and environmental factors (e.g. temperature change compared to long-term average, nitrogen and sulphur deposition) as influencing parameters. In the stand-growth model, stem volume increment was used as the growth response variable, after filtering out the expected growth. Expected growth was modelled as a function of site productivity, stand age and a stand density index. Relative volume growth was then calculated as actual growth in % of expected growth. The site productivity was either taken from expert estimates or computed from for each species from three site index curves from northern, central and southern Europe. Requirements for plot selection were different for both methods, resulting in 382 plots selected for the tree-individual approach and 363 plots for the stand growth model approach. Using a mixed model approach, the individual tree-based models for all species showed a high goodness of fit with Pseudo-R2 between 0.33 and 0.44. Diameter at breast height and basal area of larger trees were highly influential variables in all models. Increasing temperature showed a positive effect on growth for all species except Norway spruce. Nitrogen deposition showed a positive impact on growth for all four species. This influence was significant with p < 0.05 for all species except common beech, where the effect was nearly significant (p = 0.077). An increase of 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1 corresponded to an increase in basal area increment between 1.20% and 1.49% depending on species. The stand-growth models explained between 18% and 40% of the variance in expected growth, mainly with a positive effect of site productivity and a negative effect of age. The various models and statistical approaches were fairly consistent, and indicated a fertilizing effect of nitrogen deposition on relative growth, with a slightly above 1 percent increase in volume increment per kg of nitrogen deposition per ha and year. This was most clear for spruce and pine, and most pronounced for plots having soil C/N ratios above 25 (i.e. low nitrogen availability). Also, we found a positive relationship between relative growth and summer temperature, i.e. May-August mean temperature deviation from the 1961-1990 means. Other influences were uncertain. Possibly, sulphur and acid deposition have effects on growth, but these effects are eventually outweighed by the positive effect of nitrogen deposition, because of co-linearity between these variables. Considering an average total stem carbon uptake for European forests near 1730 kg per hectare and year, the increase in growth in the individual tree-based models implied an estimated sequestration of approximately 21- 26 kg carbon per kg nitrogen deposition. Using the growth data and the relative stem growth predicted in the stand growth models, values for the various models ranged between 16 and 24 kg (mean 19 kg) carbon uptake per kg nitrogen deposition. Both approaches, although being very different and using a different set of plots and different methods to estimate the N induced carbon uptake in stem wood resulted in very similar results. In summary, our results indicate a clear fertilization effect of N deposition on European forests, mainly on sites with high C/N soil ratios. It is in line with approaches focused on the fate of N in forest ecosystems and with results of N fertilizer experiments but much smaller than had recently been reported in other field studies (De Vries et al., 2008). Increasing temperature was also found to have a positive influence on forest growth, but this effect seemed to be less clear. References: De Vries W., Solberg S., Dobbertin M., Sterba H., Laubhahn D., Reinds G.J., Nabuurs G.-J., Gundersen P. (2008) Ecologically implausible carbon response. Nature, 451, E1-E3. Laubhann, D., Sterba H., Reinds, G.J., de Vries, W. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: An individual tree growth model. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.050. Solberg, S., Dobbertin, M., Reinds, G.J., Lange, H., Andreassen, K., Garcia Fernandez, P., Hildingsson, A., de Vries, W. Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach. For. Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.057.

Weighing trees with lasers: advances, challenges and opportunities

PubMed Central

Boni Vicari, M.; Burt, A.; Calders, K.; Lewis, S. L.; Raumonen, P.; Wilkes, P.

2018-01-01

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is providing exciting new ways to quantify tree and forest structure, particularly above-ground biomass (AGB). We show how TLS can address some of the key uncertainties and limitations of current approaches to estimating AGB based on empirical allometric scaling equations (ASEs) that underpin all large-scale estimates of AGB. TLS provides extremely detailed non-destructive measurements of tree form independent of tree size and shape. We show examples of three-dimensional (3D) TLS measurements from various tropical and temperate forests and describe how the resulting TLS point clouds can be used to produce quantitative 3D models of branch and trunk size, shape and distribution. These models can drastically improve estimates of AGB, provide new, improved large-scale ASEs, and deliver insights into a range of fundamental tree properties related to structure. Large quantities of detailed measurements of individual 3D tree structure also have the potential to open new and exciting avenues of research in areas where difficulties of measurement have until now prevented statistical approaches to detecting and understanding underlying patterns of scaling, form and function. We discuss these opportunities and some of the challenges that remain to be overcome to enable wider adoption of TLS methods. PMID:29503726

Simulation of carbon allocation and organ growth variability in apple tree by connecting architectural and source–sink models

PubMed Central

Pallas, Benoît; Da Silva, David; Valsesia, Pierre; Yang, Weiwei; Guillaume, Olivier; Lauri, Pierre-Eric; Vercambre, Gilles; Génard, Michel; Costes, Evelyne

2016-01-01

Background and aims Plant growth depends on carbon availability and allocation among organs. QualiTree has been designed to simulate carbon allocation and partitioning in the peach tree (Prunus persica), whereas MappleT is dedicated to the simulation of apple tree (Malus × domestica) architecture. The objective of this study was to couple both models and adapt QualiTree to apple trees to simulate organ growth traits and their within-tree variability. Methods MappleT was used to generate architectures corresponding to the ‘Fuji’ cultivar, accounting for the variability within and among individuals. These architectures were input into QualiTree to simulate shoot and fruit growth during a growth cycle. We modified QualiTree to account for the observed shoot polymorphism in apple trees, i.e. different classes (long, medium and short) that were characterized by different growth function parameters. Model outputs were compared with observed 3D tree geometries, considering shoot and final fruit size and growth dynamics. Key Results The modelling approach connecting MappleT and QualiTree was appropriate to the simulation of growth and architectural characteristics at the tree scale (plant leaf area, shoot number and types, fruit weight at harvest). At the shoot scale, mean fruit weight and its variability within trees was accurately simulated, whereas the model tended to overestimate individual shoot leaf area and underestimate its variability for each shoot type. Varying the parameter related to the intensity of carbon exchange between shoots revealed that behaviour intermediate between shoot autonomy and a common assimilate pool was required to properly simulate within-tree fruit growth variability. Moreover, the model correctly dealt with the crop load effect on organ growth. Conclusions This study provides understanding of the integration of shoot ontogenetic properties, carbon supply and transport between entities for simulating organ growth in trees. Further improvements regarding the integration of retroaction loops between carbon allocation and the resulting plant architecture are expected to allow multi-year simulations. PMID:27279576

Effectiveness of odor-baited trap trees for plum curculio (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) monitoring in commercial apple orchards in the northeast.

PubMed

Piñero, Jaime C; Agnello, Arthur M; Tuttle, Arthur; Leskey, Tracy C; Faubert, Heather; Koehler, Glen; Los, Lorraine; Morin, Glenn; Leahy, Kathleen; Cooley, Daniel R; Prokopy, Ronald J

2011-10-01

The plum curculio, Conotrachelus nenuphar (Herbst), is a key pest of pome and stone fruit in eastern and central North America. For effective management of this insect pest in commercial apple (Malus spp.) orchards in the northeastern United States and Canada, one of the greatest challenges has been to determine the need for and timing of insecticide applications that will protect apple fruit from injury by adults. In a 2004-2005 study, we assessed the efficacy and economic viability of a reduced-risk integrated pest management strategy involving an odor-baited trap tree approach to determine need for and timing of insecticide use against plum curculio based on appearance of fresh egg-laying scars. Evaluations took place in commercial apple orchards in seven northeastern U.S. states. More specifically, we compared the trap-tree approach with three calendar-driven whole-block sprays and with heat-unit accumulation models that predict how long insecticide should be applied to orchard trees to prevent injury by plum curculio late in the season. Trap tree plots received a whole-plot insecticide spray by the time of petal fall, and succeeding sprays (if needed) were applied to peripheral-row trees only, depending on a threshold of one fresh plum curculio egg-laying scar out of 25 fruit sampled from a single trap tree. In both years, level of plum curculio injury to fruit sampled from perimeter-row, the most interior-row trees and whole-plot injury in trap tree plots did not differ significantly from that recorded in plots subject to conventional management or in plots managed using the heat-unit accumulation approach. The amount of insecticide used in trap tree plots was reduced at least by 43% compared with plots managed with the conventional approach. Advantages and potential pitfalls of the bio-based trap tree approach to plum curculio monitoring in apple orchards are discussed.

Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

Treesearch

Bettina Ohse; Falk Huettmann; Stefanie M. Ickert-Bond; Glenn P. Juday

2009-01-01

Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca...

Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

2015-04-01

Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the public. VDAP trees evaluate probabilities of: magmatic intrusion, likelihood of eruption, magnitude of eruption, and types of associated hazardous events and their extents. In a few cases, trees have been extended to also assess and communicate vulnerability and relative risk.

Clustering Genes of Common Evolutionary History

PubMed Central

Gori, Kevin; Suchan, Tomasz; Alvarez, Nadir; Goldman, Nick; Dessimoz, Christophe

2016-01-01

Phylogenetic inference can potentially result in a more accurate tree using data from multiple loci. However, if the loci are incongruent—due to events such as incomplete lineage sorting or horizontal gene transfer—it can be misleading to infer a single tree. To address this, many previous contributions have taken a mechanistic approach, by modeling specific processes. Alternatively, one can cluster loci without assuming how these incongruencies might arise. Such “process-agnostic” approaches typically infer a tree for each locus and cluster these. There are, however, many possible combinations of tree distance and clustering methods; their comparative performance in the context of tree incongruence is largely unknown. Furthermore, because standard model selection criteria such as AIC cannot be applied to problems with a variable number of topologies, the issue of inferring the optimal number of clusters is poorly understood. Here, we perform a large-scale simulation study of phylogenetic distances and clustering methods to infer loci of common evolutionary history. We observe that the best-performing combinations are distances accounting for branch lengths followed by spectral clustering or Ward’s method. We also introduce two statistical tests to infer the optimal number of clusters and show that they strongly outperform the silhouette criterion, a general-purpose heuristic. We illustrate the usefulness of the approach by 1) identifying errors in a previous phylogenetic analysis of yeast species and 2) identifying topological incongruence among newly sequenced loci of the globeflower fly genus Chiastocheta. We release treeCl, a new program to cluster genes of common evolutionary history (http://git.io/treeCl). PMID:26893301

Bayesian additive decision trees of biomarker by treatment interactions for predictive biomarker detection and subgroup identification.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Zheng, Wei; Zhuo, Daisy Y; Lu, Yuefeng; Ma, Xiwen; Liu, Hengchang; Zeng, Zhen; Laird, Glen

2017-10-11

Personalized medicine, or tailored therapy, has been an active and important topic in recent medical research. Many methods have been proposed in the literature for predictive biomarker detection and subgroup identification. In this article, we propose a novel decision tree-based approach applicable in randomized clinical trials. We model the prognostic effects of the biomarkers using additive regression trees and the biomarker-by-treatment effect using a single regression tree. Bayesian approach is utilized to periodically revise the split variables and the split rules of the decision trees, which provides a better overall fitting. Gibbs sampler is implemented in the MCMC procedure, which updates the prognostic trees and the interaction tree separately. We use the posterior distribution of the interaction tree to construct the predictive scores of the biomarkers and to identify the subgroup where the treatment is superior to the control. Numerical simulations show that our proposed method performs well under various settings comparing to existing methods. We also demonstrate an application of our method in a real clinical trial.

Spectral analysis of white ash response to emerald ash borer infestations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calandra, Laura

The emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) is an invasive insect that has killed over 50 million ash trees in the US. The goal of this research was to establish a method to identify ash trees infested with EAB using remote sensing techniques at the leaf-level and tree crown level. First, a field-based study at the leaf-level used the range of spectral bands from the WorldView-2 sensor to determine if there was a significant difference between EAB-infested white ash (Fraxinus americana) and healthy leaves. Binary logistic regression models were developed using individual and combinations of wavelengths; the most successful model included 545 and 950 nm bands. The second half of this research employed imagery to identify healthy and EAB-infested trees, comparing pixel- and object-based methods by applying an unsupervised classification approach and a tree crown delineation algorithm, respectively. The pixel-based models attained the highest overall accuracies.

A 3-point derivation of dominant tree height equations

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg

2011-01-01

This paper describes a new approach for deriving height-diameter (H-D) equations from limited information and a few assumptions about tree height. Only three data points are required to fit this model, which can be based on virtually any nonlinear function. These points are the height of a tree at diameter at breast height (d.b.h.), the predicted height of a 10-inch d....

Graphical models for optimal power flow

DOE PAGES

Dvijotham, Krishnamurthy; Chertkov, Michael; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; ...

2016-09-13

Optimal power flow (OPF) is the central optimization problem in electric power grids. Although solved routinely in the course of power grid operations, it is known to be strongly NP-hard in general, and weakly NP-hard over tree networks. In this paper, we formulate the optimal power flow problem over tree networks as an inference problem over a tree-structured graphical model where the nodal variables are low-dimensional vectors. We adapt the standard dynamic programming algorithm for inference over a tree-structured graphical model to the OPF problem. Combining this with an interval discretization of the nodal variables, we develop an approximation algorithmmore » for the OPF problem. Further, we use techniques from constraint programming (CP) to perform interval computations and adaptive bound propagation to obtain practically efficient algorithms. Compared to previous algorithms that solve OPF with optimality guarantees using convex relaxations, our approach is able to work for arbitrary tree-structured distribution networks and handle mixed-integer optimization problems. Further, it can be implemented in a distributed message-passing fashion that is scalable and is suitable for “smart grid” applications like control of distributed energy resources. In conclusion, numerical evaluations on several benchmark networks show that practical OPF problems can be solved effectively using this approach.« less

Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

PubMed

Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

2012-01-01

Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly redundant attributes that are very common in bioinformatics.

Comprehensive Decision Tree Models in Bioinformatics

PubMed Central

Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

2012-01-01

Purpose Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. Methods This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. Results The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. Conclusions The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly redundant attributes that are very common in bioinformatics. PMID:22479449

BAYESIAN METHODS FOR REGIONAL-SCALE EUTROPHICATION MODELS. (R830887)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate a Bayesian classification and regression tree (CART) approach to link multiple environmental stressors to biological responses and quantify uncertainty in model predictions. Such an approach can: (1) report prediction uncertainty, (2) be consistent with the amou...

Implementation of a Goal-Based Systems Engineering Process Using the Systems Modeling Language (SysML)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Jonathan D.; Breckenridge, Jonathan T.; Johnson, Stephen B.

2013-01-01

Building upon the purpose, theoretical approach, and use of a Goal-Function Tree (GFT) being presented by Dr. Stephen B. Johnson, described in a related Infotech 2013 ISHM abstract titled "Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management", this paper will describe the core framework used to implement the GFTbased systems engineering process using the Systems Modeling Language (SysML). These two papers are ideally accepted and presented together in the same Infotech session. Statement of problem: SysML, as a tool, is currently not capable of implementing the theoretical approach described within the "Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management" paper cited above. More generally, SysML's current capabilities to model functional decompositions in the rigorous manner required in the GFT approach are limited. The GFT is a new Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to the development of goals and requirements, functions, and its linkage to design. As a growing standard for systems engineering, it is important to develop methods to implement GFT in SysML. Proposed Method of Solution: Many of the central concepts of the SysML language are needed to implement a GFT for large complex systems. In the implementation of those central concepts, the following will be described in detail: changes to the nominal SysML process, model view definitions and examples, diagram definitions and examples, and detailed SysML construct and stereotype definitions.

Application of a tree-level hydrodynamic model to simulate plot-level transpiration in the upland oak/pine forest in New Jersey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirfenderesgi, G.; Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Fatichi, S.; Frasson, R. P. M.; Schafer, K. V.

2015-12-01

The Finite-Elements Tree-Crown Hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) simulates water flow through the tree using the porous media analogy. Empirical equations relate water potential within the stem to stomatal conductance at the leaf level. Leaves are connected to the stem at each height. While still simplified, this approach brings realism to the simulation of transpiration compared with models where stomatal conductance is directly linked to soil moisture. The FETCH2 model accounts for plant hydraulic traits such as xylem conductivity, area of hydro-active xylem, vertical distribution of leaf area, and maximal and minimal xylem water content, and their effect on the dynamics of water flow in the tree system. Such a modeling tool enhances our understanding of the role of hydraulic limitations and allows us to incorporate the effects of short-term water stresses on transpiration. Here, we use FETCH2 parameterized and evaluated with a large sap-flow observations data set, collected from 21 trees of two genera (oak/pine) at Silas Little Experimental Forest, NJ. The well-drained deep sandy soil leads to water stress during many days throughout the growing season. We conduct a set of tree-level transpiration simulations, and use the results to evaluate the effects of different hydraulic strategies on daily transpiration and water use efficiency. We define these "hydraulic strategies" through combinations of multiple sets of parameters in the model that describe the root, stem and leaf hydraulics. After evaluating the performance of the model, we use the results to shed light on the future trajectory of the forest in terms of species-specific transpiration responses. Application of the model on the two co-occurring oak species (Quercus prinus L. and Quercus velutina Lam) shows that the applied modeling approach was successfully captures the differences in water-use strategy through optimizing multiple physiological and hydraulic parameters.

Influence of the variation of geometrical and topological traits on light interception efficiency of apple trees: sensitivity analysis and metamodelling for ideotype definition

PubMed Central

Da Silva, David; Han, Liqi; Faivre, Robert; Costes, Evelyne

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The impact of a fruit tree's architecture on its performance is still under debate, especially with regard to the definition of varietal ideotypes and the selection of architectural traits in breeding programmes. This study aimed at providing proof that a modelling approach can contribute to this debate, by using in silico exploration of different combinations of traits and their consequences on light interception, here considered as one of the key parameters to optimize fruit tree production. Methods The variability of organ geometrical traits, previously described in a bi-parental population, was used to simulate 1- to 5-year-old apple trees (Malus × domestica). Branching sequences along trunks observed during the first year of growth of the same hybrid trees were used to initiate the simulations, and hidden semi-Markov chains previously parameterized were used in subsequent years. Tree total leaf area (TLA) and silhouette to total area ratio (STAR) values were estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was performed, based on a metamodelling approach and a generalized additive model (GAM), to analyse the relative impact of organ geometry and lateral shoot types on STAR. Key Results A larger increase over years in TLA mean and variance was generated by varying branching along trunks than by varying organ geometry, whereas the inverse was observed for STAR, where mean values stabilized from year 3 to year 5. The internode length and leaf area had the highest impact on STAR, whereas long sylleptic shoots had a more significant effect than proleptic shoots. Although the GAM did not account for interactions, the additive effects of the geometrical factors explained >90% of STAR variation, but much less in the case of branching factors. Conclusions This study demonstrates that the proposed modelling approach could contribute to screening architectural traits and their relative impact on tree performance, here viewed through light interception. Even though trait combinations and antagonism will need further investigation, the approach opens up new perspectives for breeding and genetic selection to be assisted by varietal ideotype definition. PMID:24723446

Decision Tree Approach for Soil Liquefaction Assessment

PubMed Central

Gandomi, Amir H.; Fridline, Mark M.; Roke, David A.

2013-01-01

In the current study, the performances of some decision tree (DT) techniques are evaluated for postearthquake soil liquefaction assessment. A database containing 620 records of seismic parameters and soil properties is used in this study. Three decision tree techniques are used here in two different ways, considering statistical and engineering points of view, to develop decision rules. The DT results are compared to the logistic regression (LR) model. The results of this study indicate that the DTs not only successfully predict liquefaction but they can also outperform the LR model. The best DT models are interpreted and evaluated based on an engineering point of view. PMID:24489498

Decision tree approach for soil liquefaction assessment.

PubMed

Gandomi, Amir H; Fridline, Mark M; Roke, David A

2013-01-01

In the current study, the performances of some decision tree (DT) techniques are evaluated for postearthquake soil liquefaction assessment. A database containing 620 records of seismic parameters and soil properties is used in this study. Three decision tree techniques are used here in two different ways, considering statistical and engineering points of view, to develop decision rules. The DT results are compared to the logistic regression (LR) model. The results of this study indicate that the DTs not only successfully predict liquefaction but they can also outperform the LR model. The best DT models are interpreted and evaluated based on an engineering point of view.

A Voronoi interior adjacency-based approach for generating a contour tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jun; Qiao, Chaofei; Zhao, Renliang

2004-05-01

A contour tree is a good graphical tool for representing the spatial relations of contour lines and has found many applications in map generalization, map annotation, terrain analysis, etc. A new approach for generating contour trees by introducing a Voronoi-based interior adjacency set concept is proposed in this paper. The immediate interior adjacency set is employed to identify all of the children contours of each contour without contour elevations. It has advantages over existing methods such as the point-in-polygon method and the region growing-based method. This new approach can be used for spatial data mining and knowledge discovering, such as the automatic extraction of terrain features and construction of multi-resolution digital elevation model.

TreeWatch.net: A Water and Carbon Monitoring and Modeling Network to Assess Instant Tree Hydraulics and Carbon Status.

PubMed

Steppe, Kathy; von der Crone, Jonas S; De Pauw, Dirk J W

2016-01-01

TreeWatch.net is an initiative that has been developed to watch trees grow and function in real-time. It is a water- and carbon-monitoring and modeling network, in which high-quality measurements of sap flow and stem diameter variation are collected on individual trees. Automated data processing using a cloud service enables instant visualization of water movement and radial stem growth. This can be used to demonstrate the sensitivity of trees to changing weather conditions, such as drought, heat waves, or heavy rain showers. But TreeWatch.net's true innovation lies in its use of these high-precision harmonized data to also parameterize process-based tree models in real-time, which makes displaying the much-needed mechanisms underlying tree responses to climate change possible. Continuous simulation of turgor to describe growth processes and long-term time series of hydraulic resistance to assess drought-vulnerability in real-time are only a few of the opportunities our approach offers. TreeWatch.net has been developed with the view to be complementary to existing forest monitoring networks and with the aim to contribute to existing dynamic global vegetation models. It provides high-quality data and real-time simulations in order to advance research on the impact of climate change on the biological response of trees and forests. Besides its application in natural forests to answer climate-change related scientific and political questions, we also envision a broader societal application of TreeWatch.net by selecting trees in nature reserves, public areas, cities, university areas, schoolyards, and parks to teach youngsters and create public awareness on the effects of changing weather conditions on trees and forests in this era of climate change.

Combining a generic process-based productivity model classification method to predict the presence and absence species in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A

Treesearch

Nicholas C. Coops; Richard H. Waring; Todd A. Schroeder

2009-01-01

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions.We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation...

Low-field nuclear magnetic resonance for the in vivo study of water content in trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoder, Jacob, E-mail: jlyoder@lanl.gov; Malone, Michael W.; Espy, Michelle A.

2014-09-15

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and magnetic resonance imaging have long been used to study water content in plants. Approaches have been primarily based on systems using large magnetic fields (∼1 T) to obtain NMR signals with good signal-to-noise. This is because the NMR signal scales approximately with the magnetic field strength squared. However, there are also limits to this approach in terms of realistic physiological configuration or those imposed by the size and cost of the magnet. Here we have taken a different approach – keeping the magnetic field low to produce a very light and inexpensive system, suitable formore » bulk water measurements on trees less than 5 cm in diameter, which could easily be duplicated to measure on many trees or from multiple parts of the same tree. Using this system we have shown sensitivity to water content in trees and their cuttings and observed a diurnal signal variation in tree water content in a greenhouse. We also demonstrate that, with calibration and modeling of the thermal polarization, the system is reliable under significant temperature variation.« less

A Recursive Partitioning Method for the Prediction of Preference Rankings Based Upon Kemeny Distances.

PubMed

D'Ambrosio, Antonio; Heiser, Willem J

2016-09-01

Preference rankings usually depend on the characteristics of both the individuals judging a set of objects and the objects being judged. This topic has been handled in the literature with log-linear representations of the generalized Bradley-Terry model and, recently, with distance-based tree models for rankings. A limitation of these approaches is that they only work with full rankings or with a pre-specified pattern governing the presence of ties, and/or they are based on quite strict distributional assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new prediction tree method for ranking data that is totally distribution-free. It combines Kemeny's axiomatic approach to define a unique distance between rankings with the CART approach to find a stable prediction tree. Furthermore, our method is not limited by any particular design of the pattern of ties. The method is evaluated in an extensive full-factorial Monte Carlo study with a new simulation design.

On the Correlation Between Biomass and the P-Band Polarisation Phase Difference, and Its Potential for Biomass and Tree Number Density Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Maciej J.; Blomberg, Erik; Ulander, Lars M. H.

2015-04-01

In this paper, a significant correlation between the HH/VV phase difference (polarisation phase difference, PPD) and the above-ground biomass (AGB) is observed for incidence angles above 30° in airborne P-band SAR data acquired over two boreal test sites in Sweden. A geometric model is used to explain the dependence of the AGB on tree height, stem radius, and tree number density, whereas a cylinder-over-ground model is used to explain the dependence of the PPD on the same three forest parameters. The models show that forest anisotropy need to be accounted for at P-band in order to obtain a linear relationship between the PPD and the AGB. An approach to the estimation of tree number density is proposed, based on a comparison between the modelled and observed PPDs.

Dynamics of leaf gas exchange, xylem and phloem transport, water potential and carbohydrate concentration in a realistic 3-D model tree crown.

PubMed

Nikinmaa, Eero; Sievänen, Risto; Hölttä, Teemu

2014-09-01

Tree models simulate productivity using general gas exchange responses and structural relationships, but they rarely check whether leaf gas exchange and resulting water and assimilate transport and driving pressure gradients remain within acceptable physical boundaries. This study presents an implementation of the cohesion-tension theory of xylem transport and the Münch hypothesis of phloem transport in a realistic 3-D tree structure and assesses the gas exchange and transport dynamics. A mechanistic model of xylem and phloem transport was used, together with a tested leaf assimilation and transpiration model in a realistic tree architecture to simulate leaf gas exchange and water and carbohydrate transport within an 8-year-old Scots pine tree. The model solved the dynamics of the amounts of water and sucrose solute in the xylem, cambium and phloem using a fine-grained mesh with a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. The simulations predicted the observed patterns of pressure gradients and sugar concentration. Diurnal variation of environmental conditions influenced tree-level gradients in turgor pressure and sugar concentration, which are important drivers of carbon allocation. The results and between-shoot variation were sensitive to structural and functional parameters such as tree-level scaling of conduit size and phloem unloading. Linking whole-tree-level water and assimilate transport, gas exchange and sink activity opens a new avenue for plant studies, as features that are difficult to measure can be studied dynamically with the model. Tree-level responses to local and external conditions can be tested, thus making the approach described here a good test-bench for studies of whole-tree physiology.

Markov-random-field-based super-resolution mapping for identification of urban trees in VHR images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardila, Juan P.; Tolpekin, Valentyn A.; Bijker, Wietske; Stein, Alfred

2011-11-01

Identification of tree crowns from remote sensing requires detailed spectral information and submeter spatial resolution imagery. Traditional pixel-based classification techniques do not fully exploit the spatial and spectral characteristics of remote sensing datasets. We propose a contextual and probabilistic method for detection of tree crowns in urban areas using a Markov random field based super resolution mapping (SRM) approach in very high resolution images. Our method defines an objective energy function in terms of the conditional probabilities of panchromatic and multispectral images and it locally optimizes the labeling of tree crown pixels. Energy and model parameter values are estimated from multiple implementations of SRM in tuning areas and the method is applied in QuickBird images to produce a 0.6 m tree crown map in a city of The Netherlands. The SRM output shows an identification rate of 66% and commission and omission errors in small trees and shrub areas. The method outperforms tree crown identification results obtained with maximum likelihood, support vector machines and SRM at nominal resolution (2.4 m) approaches.

In silico prediction of toxicity of phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis by using genetic algorithm and decision tree-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Abbasitabar, Fatemeh; Zare-Shahabadi, Vahid

2017-04-01

Risk assessment of chemicals is an important issue in environmental protection; however, there is a huge lack of experimental data for a large number of end-points. The experimental determination of toxicity of chemicals involves high costs and time-consuming process. In silico tools such as quantitative structure-toxicity relationship (QSTR) models, which are constructed on the basis of computational molecular descriptors, can predict missing data for toxic end-points for existing or even not yet synthesized chemicals. Phenol derivatives are known to be aquatic pollutants. With this background, we aimed to develop an accurate and reliable QSTR model for the prediction of toxicity of 206 phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis. A multiple linear regression (MLR)-based QSTR was obtained using a powerful descriptor selection tool named Memorized_ACO algorithm. Statistical parameters of the model were 0.72 and 0.68 for R training 2 and R test 2 , respectively. To develop a high-quality QSTR model, classification and regression tree (CART) was employed. Two approaches were considered: (1) phenols were classified into different modes of action using CART and (2) the phenols in the training set were partitioned to several subsets by a tree in such a manner that in each subset, a high-quality MLR could be developed. For the first approach, the statistical parameters of the resultant QSTR model were improved to 0.83 and 0.75 for R training 2 and R test 2 , respectively. Genetic algorithm was employed in the second approach to obtain an optimal tree, and it was shown that the final QSTR model provided excellent prediction accuracy for the training and test sets (R training 2 and R test 2 were 0.91 and 0.93, respectively). The mean absolute error for the test set was computed as 0.1615. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive segmentation of cerebrovascular tree in time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiography.

PubMed

Hao, J T; Li, M L; Tang, F L

2008-01-01

Accurate segmentation of the human vasculature is an important prerequisite for a number of clinical procedures, such as diagnosis, image-guided neurosurgery and pre-surgical planning. In this paper, an improved statistical approach to extracting whole cerebrovascular tree in time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiography is proposed. Firstly, in order to get a more accurate segmentation result, a localized observation model is proposed instead of defining the observation model over the entire dataset. Secondly, for the binary segmentation, an improved Iterative Conditional Model (ICM) algorithm is presented to accelerate the segmentation process. The experimental results showed that the proposed algorithm can obtain more satisfactory segmentation results and save more processing time than conventional approaches, simultaneously.

Resolving Evolutionary Relationships in Closely Related Species with Whole-Genome Sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Nater, Alexander; Burri, Reto; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2015-01-01

Using genetic data to resolve the evolutionary relationships of species is of major interest in evolutionary and systematic biology. However, reconstructing the sequence of speciation events, the so-called species tree, in closely related and potentially hybridizing species is very challenging. Processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and interspecific gene flow result in local gene genealogies that differ in their topology from the species tree, and analyses of few loci with a single sequence per species are likely to produce conflicting or even misleading results. To study these phenomena on a full phylogenomic scale, we use whole-genome sequence data from 200 individuals of four black-and-white flycatcher species with so far unresolved phylogenetic relationships to infer gene tree topologies and visualize genome-wide patterns of gene tree incongruence. Using phylogenetic analysis in nonoverlapping 10-kb windows, we show that gene tree topologies are extremely diverse and change on a very small physical scale. Moreover, we find strong evidence for gene flow among flycatcher species, with distinct patterns of reduced introgression on the Z chromosome. To resolve species relationships on the background of widespread gene tree incongruence, we used four complementary coalescent-based methods for species tree reconstruction, including complex modeling approaches that incorporate post-divergence gene flow among species. This allowed us to infer the most likely species tree with high confidence. Based on this finding, we show that regions of reduced effective population size, which have been suggested as particularly useful for species tree inference, can produce positively misleading species tree topologies. Our findings disclose the pitfalls of using loci potentially under selection as phylogenetic markers and highlight the potential of modeling approaches to disentangle species relationships in systems with large effective population sizes and post-divergence gene flow. PMID:26187295

Tree versus Geometric Representation of Tests and Items.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beller, Michael

1990-01-01

Geometric approaches to representing interrelations among tests and items are compared with an additive tree model (ATM), using 2,644 examinees and 2 other data sets. The ATM's close fit to the data and its coherence of presentation indicate that it is the best means of representing tests and items. (TJH)

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

PubMed

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

Modeling whole-tree carbon assimilation rate using observed transpiration rates and needle sugar carbon isotope ratios.

PubMed

Hu, Jia; Moore, David J P; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A; Burns, Sean P; Monson, Russell K

2010-03-01

*Understanding controls over plant-atmosphere CO(2) exchange is important for quantifying carbon budgets across a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a simple approach to estimate whole-tree CO(2) assimilation rate (A(Tree)) in a subalpine forest ecosystem. *We analysed the carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C) of extracted needle sugars and combined it with the daytime leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit to estimate tree water-use efficiency (WUE). The estimated WUE was then combined with observations of tree transpiration rate (E) using sap flow techniques to estimate A(Tree). Estimates of A(Tree) for the three dominant tree species in the forest were combined with species distribution and tree size to estimate and gross primary productivity (GPP) using an ecosystem process model. *A sensitivity analysis showed that estimates of A(Tree) were more sensitive to dynamics in E than delta(13)C. At the ecosystem scale, the abundance of lodgepole pine trees influenced seasonal dynamics in GPP considerably more than Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir because of its greater sensitivity of E to seasonal climate variation. *The results provide the framework for a nondestructive method for estimating whole-tree carbon assimilation rate and ecosystem GPP over daily-to weekly time scales.

Soft context clustering for F0 modeling in HMM-based speech synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khorram, Soheil; Sameti, Hossein; King, Simon

2015-12-01

This paper proposes the use of a new binary decision tree, which we call a soft decision tree, to improve generalization performance compared to the conventional `hard' decision tree method that is used to cluster context-dependent model parameters in statistical parametric speech synthesis. We apply the method to improve the modeling of fundamental frequency, which is an important factor in synthesizing natural-sounding high-quality speech. Conventionally, hard decision tree-clustered hidden Markov models (HMMs) are used, in which each model parameter is assigned to a single leaf node. However, this `divide-and-conquer' approach leads to data sparsity, with the consequence that it suffers from poor generalization, meaning that it is unable to accurately predict parameters for models of unseen contexts: the hard decision tree is a weak function approximator. To alleviate this, we propose the soft decision tree, which is a binary decision tree with soft decisions at the internal nodes. In this soft clustering method, internal nodes select both their children with certain membership degrees; therefore, each node can be viewed as a fuzzy set with a context-dependent membership function. The soft decision tree improves model generalization and provides a superior function approximator because it is able to assign each context to several overlapped leaves. In order to use such a soft decision tree to predict the parameters of the HMM output probability distribution, we derive the smoothest (maximum entropy) distribution which captures all partial first-order moments and a global second-order moment of the training samples. Employing such a soft decision tree architecture with maximum entropy distributions, a novel speech synthesis system is trained using maximum likelihood (ML) parameter re-estimation and synthesis is achieved via maximum output probability parameter generation. In addition, a soft decision tree construction algorithm optimizing a log-likelihood measure is developed. Both subjective and objective evaluations were conducted and indicate a considerable improvement over the conventional method.

Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines.

PubMed

Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye

2013-09-30

Subsidence of ground caused by underground mines poses hazards to human life and property. This study analyzed the hazard to ground subsidence using factors that can affect ground subsidence and a decision tree approach in a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was Taebaek, Gangwon-do, Korea, where many abandoned underground coal mines exist. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A data-mining classification technique was applied to the GSH mapping, and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. The frequency ratio model was also applied to the GSH mapping for comparing with probabilistic model. The resulting GSH maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the subsidence area data that had not been used for training the model. The highest accuracy was achieved by the decision tree model using CHAID algorithm (94.01%) comparing with QUEST algorithms (90.37%) and frequency ratio model (86.70%). These accuracies are higher than previously reported results for decision tree. Decision tree methods can therefore be used efficiently for GSH analysis and might be widely used for prediction of various spatial events. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Tree level hydrodynamic approach for resolving aboveground water storage and stomatal conductance and modeling the effects of tree hydraulic strategy

DOE PAGES

Mirfenderesgi, Golnazalsadat; Bohrer, Gil; Matheny, Ashley M.; ...

2016-06-21

The finite difference ecosystem-scale tree crown hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is a tree-scale hydrodynamic model of transpiration. The FETCH2 model employs a finite difference numerical methodology and a simplified single-beam conduit system to explicitly resolve xylem water potentials throughout the vertical extent of a tree. Empirical equations relate water potential within the stem to stomatal conductance of the leaves at each height throughout the crown. While highly simplified, this approach brings additional realism to the simulation of transpiration by linking stomatal responses to stem water potential rather than directly to soil moisture, as is currently the case in themore » majority of land surface models. FETCH2 accounts for plant hydraulic traits, such as the degree of anisohydric/isohydric response of stomata, maximal xylem conductivity, vertical distribution of leaf area, and maximal and minimal xylem water content. We used FETCH2 along with sap flow and eddy covariance data sets collected from a mixed plot of two genera (oak/pine) in Silas Little Experimental Forest, NJ, USA, to conduct an analysis of the intergeneric variation of hydraulic strategies and their effects on diurnal and seasonal transpiration dynamics. We define these strategies through the parameters that describe the genus level transpiration and xylem conductivity responses to changes in stem water potential. Here, our evaluation revealed that FETCH2 considerably improved the simulation of ecosystem transpiration and latent heat flux in comparison to more conventional models. In conclusion, a virtual experiment showed that the model was able to capture the effect of hydraulic strategies such as isohydric/anisohydric behavior on stomatal conductance under different soil-water availability conditions.« less

Tree level hydrodynamic approach for resolving aboveground water storage and stomatal conductance and modeling the effects of tree hydraulic strategy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirfenderesgi, Golnazalsadat; Bohrer, Gil; Matheny, Ashley M.

The finite difference ecosystem-scale tree crown hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is a tree-scale hydrodynamic model of transpiration. The FETCH2 model employs a finite difference numerical methodology and a simplified single-beam conduit system to explicitly resolve xylem water potentials throughout the vertical extent of a tree. Empirical equations relate water potential within the stem to stomatal conductance of the leaves at each height throughout the crown. While highly simplified, this approach brings additional realism to the simulation of transpiration by linking stomatal responses to stem water potential rather than directly to soil moisture, as is currently the case in themore » majority of land surface models. FETCH2 accounts for plant hydraulic traits, such as the degree of anisohydric/isohydric response of stomata, maximal xylem conductivity, vertical distribution of leaf area, and maximal and minimal xylem water content. We used FETCH2 along with sap flow and eddy covariance data sets collected from a mixed plot of two genera (oak/pine) in Silas Little Experimental Forest, NJ, USA, to conduct an analysis of the intergeneric variation of hydraulic strategies and their effects on diurnal and seasonal transpiration dynamics. We define these strategies through the parameters that describe the genus level transpiration and xylem conductivity responses to changes in stem water potential. Here, our evaluation revealed that FETCH2 considerably improved the simulation of ecosystem transpiration and latent heat flux in comparison to more conventional models. In conclusion, a virtual experiment showed that the model was able to capture the effect of hydraulic strategies such as isohydric/anisohydric behavior on stomatal conductance under different soil-water availability conditions.« less

Tree level hydrodynamic approach for resolving aboveground water storage and stomatal conductance and modeling the effects of tree hydraulic strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirfenderesgi, Golnazalsadat; Bohrer, Gil; Matheny, Ashley M.; Fatichi, Simone; de Moraes Frasson, Renato Prata; Schäfer, Karina V. R.

2016-07-01

The finite difference ecosystem-scale tree crown hydrodynamics model version 2 (FETCH2) is a tree-scale hydrodynamic model of transpiration. The FETCH2 model employs a finite difference numerical methodology and a simplified single-beam conduit system to explicitly resolve xylem water potentials throughout the vertical extent of a tree. Empirical equations relate water potential within the stem to stomatal conductance of the leaves at each height throughout the crown. While highly simplified, this approach brings additional realism to the simulation of transpiration by linking stomatal responses to stem water potential rather than directly to soil moisture, as is currently the case in the majority of land surface models. FETCH2 accounts for plant hydraulic traits, such as the degree of anisohydric/isohydric response of stomata, maximal xylem conductivity, vertical distribution of leaf area, and maximal and minimal xylem water content. We used FETCH2 along with sap flow and eddy covariance data sets collected from a mixed plot of two genera (oak/pine) in Silas Little Experimental Forest, NJ, USA, to conduct an analysis of the intergeneric variation of hydraulic strategies and their effects on diurnal and seasonal transpiration dynamics. We define these strategies through the parameters that describe the genus level transpiration and xylem conductivity responses to changes in stem water potential. Our evaluation revealed that FETCH2 considerably improved the simulation of ecosystem transpiration and latent heat flux in comparison to more conventional models. A virtual experiment showed that the model was able to capture the effect of hydraulic strategies such as isohydric/anisohydric behavior on stomatal conductance under different soil-water availability conditions.

[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

PubMed

Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

2013-05-01

Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

Bayesian Total-Evidence Dating Reveals the Recent Crown Radiation of Penguins

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.; Ksepka, Daniel T.; Stadler, Tanja; Welch, David; Drummond, Alexei J.

2017-01-01

The total-evidence approach to divergence time dating uses molecular and morphological data from extant and fossil species to infer phylogenetic relationships, species divergence times, and macroevolutionary parameters in a single coherent framework. Current model-based implementations of this approach lack an appropriate model for the tree describing the diversification and fossilization process and can produce estimates that lead to erroneous conclusions. We address this shortcoming by providing a total-evidence method implemented in a Bayesian framework. This approach uses a mechanistic tree prior to describe the underlying diversification process that generated the tree of extant and fossil taxa. Previous attempts to apply the total-evidence approach have used tree priors that do not account for the possibility that fossil samples may be direct ancestors of other samples, that is, ancestors of fossil or extant species or of clades. The fossilized birth–death (FBD) process explicitly models the diversification, fossilization, and sampling processes and naturally allows for sampled ancestors. This model was recently applied to estimate divergence times based on molecular data and fossil occurrence dates. We incorporate the FBD model and a model of morphological trait evolution into a Bayesian total-evidence approach to dating species phylogenies. We apply this method to extant and fossil penguins and show that the modern penguins radiated much more recently than has been previously estimated, with the basal divergence in the crown clade occurring at \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}${\\sim}12.7$\\end{document} Ma and most splits leading to extant species occurring in the last 2 myr. Our results demonstrate that including stem-fossil diversity can greatly improve the estimates of the divergence times of crown taxa. The method is available in BEAST2 (version 2.4) software www.beast2.org with packages SA (version at least 1.1.4) and morph-models (version at least 1.0.4) installed. [Birth–death process; calibration; divergence times; MCMC; phylogenetics.] PMID:28173531

A Metric on Phylogenetic Tree Shapes

PubMed Central

Plazzotta, G.

2018-01-01

Abstract The shapes of evolutionary trees are influenced by the nature of the evolutionary process but comparisons of trees from different processes are hindered by the challenge of completely describing tree shape. We present a full characterization of the shapes of rooted branching trees in a form that lends itself to natural tree comparisons. We use this characterization to define a metric, in the sense of a true distance function, on tree shapes. The metric distinguishes trees from random models known to produce different tree shapes. It separates trees derived from tropical versus USA influenza A sequences, which reflect the differing epidemiology of tropical and seasonal flu. We describe several metrics based on the same core characterization, and illustrate how to extend the metric to incorporate trees’ branch lengths or other features such as overall imbalance. Our approach allows us to construct addition and multiplication on trees, and to create a convex metric on tree shapes which formally allows computation of average tree shapes. PMID:28472435

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

Semantic World Modelling and Data Management in a 4d Forest Simulation and Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roßmann, J.; Hoppen, M.; Bücken, A.

2013-08-01

Various types of 3D simulation applications benefit from realistic forest models. They range from flight simulators for entertainment to harvester simulators for training and tree growth simulations for research and planning. Our 4D forest simulation and information system integrates the necessary methods for data extraction, modelling and management. Using modern methods of semantic world modelling, tree data can efficiently be extracted from remote sensing data. The derived forest models contain position, height, crown volume, type and diameter of each tree. This data is modelled using GML-based data models to assure compatibility and exchangeability. A flexible approach for database synchronization is used to manage the data and provide caching, persistence, a central communication hub for change distribution, and a versioning mechanism. Combining various simulation techniques and data versioning, the 4D forest simulation and information system can provide applications with "both directions" of the fourth dimension. Our paper outlines the current state, new developments, and integration of tree extraction, data modelling, and data management. It also shows several applications realized with the system.

Modeling individual trees in an urban environment using dense discrete return LIDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Madhurima; van Aardt, Jan A. N.; van Leeuwen, Martin

2015-05-01

The urban forest is becoming increasingly important in the contexts of urban green space, carbon sequestration and offsets, and socio-economic impacts. This has led to a recent increase in attention being paid to urban environmental management. Tree biomass, specifically, is a vital indicator of carbon storage and has a direct impact on urban forest health and carbon sequestration. As an alternative to expensive and time-consuming field surveys, remote sensing has been used extensively in measuring dynamics of vegetation and estimating biomass. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has proven especially useful to characterize the three dimensional (3D) structure of forests. In urban contexts however, information is frequently required at the individual tree level, necessitating the proper delineation of tree crowns. Yet, crown delineation is challenging for urban trees where a wide range of stress factors and cultural influences affect growth. In this paper high resolution LiDAR data were used to infer biomass based on individual tree attributes. A multi-tiered delineation algorithm was designed to extract individual tree-crowns. At first, dominant tree segments were obtained by applying watershed segmentation on the crown height model (CHM). Next, prominent tree top positions within each segment were identified via a regional maximum transformation and the crown boundary was estimated for each of the tree tops. Finally, undetected trees were identified using a best-fitting circle approach. After tree delineation, individual tree attributes were used to estimate tree biomass and the results were validated with associated field mensuration data. Results indicate that the overall tree detection accuracy is nearly 80%, and the estimated biomass model has an adjusted-R2 of 0.5.

Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

PubMed

Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

2016-06-16

Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be implemented in a probabilistic exposure assessment or a quantitative microbial risk assessment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Tests of wildlife habitat models to evaluate oak-mast production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, R.L.; Vangilder, L.D.

1997-01-01

We measured oak-mast production and forest structure and composition in the Ozark Mountains of Missouri and tested the accuracy of oak-mast prediction variables from 5 Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) species models. Acorn production was positively associated with several measures of abundance and canopy cover of oak trees, and with an index of mast production for all 5 HSI models. We developed 2 modified oak-mast models, based on inputs related to either oak tree density or oak canopy cover and diversity of oak tree species. The revised models accounted for 22-32% of the variance associated with acorn abundance. Future tests of HSI models should consider: (1) the concept of upper limits imposed by habitat and the effects of nonhabitat factors; (2) the benefits of a top-down approach to model development; and (3) testing models across broad geographic regions.

Regionalization of meso-scale physically based nitrogen modeling outputs to the macro-scale by the use of regression trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Künne, A.; Fink, M.; Kipka, H.; Krause, P.; Flügel, W.-A.

2012-06-01

In this paper, a method is presented to estimate excess nitrogen on large scales considering single field processes. The approach was implemented by using the physically based model J2000-S to simulate the nitrogen balance as well as the hydrological dynamics within meso-scale test catchments. The model input data, the parameterization, the results and a detailed system understanding were used to generate the regression tree models with GUIDE (Loh, 2002). For each landscape type in the federal state of Thuringia a regression tree was calibrated and validated using the model data and results of excess nitrogen from the test catchments. Hydrological parameters such as precipitation and evapotranspiration were also used to predict excess nitrogen by the regression tree model. Hence they had to be calculated and regionalized as well for the state of Thuringia. Here the model J2000g was used to simulate the water balance on the macro scale. With the regression trees the excess nitrogen was regionalized for each landscape type of Thuringia. The approach allows calculating the potential nitrogen input into the streams of the drainage area. The results show that the applied methodology was able to transfer the detailed model results of the meso-scale catchments to the entire state of Thuringia by low computing time without losing the detailed knowledge from the nitrogen transport modeling. This was validated with modeling results from Fink (2004) in a catchment lying in the regionalization area. The regionalized and modeled excess nitrogen correspond with 94%. The study was conducted within the framework of a project in collaboration with the Thuringian Environmental Ministry, whose overall aim was to assess the effect of agro-environmental measures regarding load reduction in the water bodies of Thuringia to fulfill the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (Bäse et al., 2007; Fink, 2006; Fink et al., 2007).

Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

Creating animal models, why not use the Chinese tree shrew (Tupaia belangeri chinensis)?

PubMed

Yao, Yong-Gang

2017-05-18

The Chinese tree shrew ( Tupaia belangeri chinensis ), a squirrel-like and rat-sized mammal, has a wide distribution in Southeast Asia, South and Southwest China and has many unique characteristics that make it suitable for use as an experimental animal. There have been many studies using the tree shrew ( Tupaia belangeri ) aimed at increasing our understanding of fundamental biological mechanisms and for the modeling of human diseases and therapeutic responses. The recent release of a publicly available annotated genome sequence of the Chinese tree shrew and its genome database (www.treeshrewdb.org) has offered a solid base from which it is possible to elucidate the basic biological properties and create animal models using this species. The extensive characterization of key factors and signaling pathways in the immune and nervous systems has shown that tree shrews possess both conserved and unique features relative to primates. Hitherto, the tree shrew has been successfully used to create animal models for myopia, depression, breast cancer, alcohol-induced or non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases, herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, to name a few. The recent successful genetic manipulation of the tree shrew has opened a new avenue for the wider usage of this animal in biomedical research. In this opinion paper, I attempt to summarize the recent research advances that have used the Chinese tree shrew, with a focus on the new knowledge obtained by using the biological properties identified using the tree shrew genome, a proposal for the genome-based approach for creating animal models, and the genetic manipulation of the tree shrew. With more studies using this species and the application of cutting-edge gene editing techniques, the tree shrew will continue to be under the spot light as a viable animal model for investigating the basis of many different human diseases.

Fitting models of continuous trait evolution to incompletely sampled comparative data using approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Slater, Graham J; Harmon, Luke J; Wegmann, Daniel; Joyce, Paul; Revell, Liam J; Alfaro, Michael E

2012-03-01

In recent years, a suite of methods has been developed to fit multiple rate models to phylogenetic comparative data. However, most methods have limited utility at broad phylogenetic scales because they typically require complete sampling of both the tree and the associated phenotypic data. Here, we develop and implement a new, tree-based method called MECCA (Modeling Evolution of Continuous Characters using ABC) that uses a hybrid likelihood/approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-Markov-Chain Monte Carlo approach to simultaneously infer rates of diversification and trait evolution from incompletely sampled phylogenies and trait data. We demonstrate via simulation that MECCA has considerable power to choose among single versus multiple evolutionary rate models, and thus can be used to test hypotheses about changes in the rate of trait evolution across an incomplete tree of life. We finally apply MECCA to an empirical example of body size evolution in carnivores, and show that there is no evidence for an elevated rate of body size evolution in the pinnipeds relative to terrestrial carnivores. ABC approaches can provide a useful alternative set of tools for future macroevolutionary studies where likelihood-dependent approaches are lacking. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Beating the Odds: Trees to Success in Different Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; Marchant, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

A recursive partitioning model approach in the form of classification and regression trees (CART) was used with 2012 PISA data for five countries (Canada, Finland, Germany, Singapore-China, and the Unites States). The objective of the study was to determine demographic and educational variables that differentiated between low SES student that were…

A stable isotope-based approach to tropical dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Michael N.; Schrag, Daniel P.

2004-08-01

We describe a strategy for development of chronological control in tropical trees lacking demonstrably annual ring formation, using high resolution δ 18O measurements in tropical wood. The approach applies existing models of the oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brenna et al., 1998) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees lacking visible annual ring structure. Consistent with model predictions, pilot datasets from the temperate US and Costa Rica having independent chronological control suggest that observed cyclic isotopic signatures of several permil (SMOW) represent the annual cycle of local rainfall and relative humidity. Additional data from a plantation tree of known age from ENSO-sensitive northwestern coastal Peru suggests that the 1997-8 ENSO warm phase event was recorded as an 8‰ anomaly in the δ 18O of α-cellulose. The results demonstrate reproducibility of the stable isotopic chronometer over decades, two different climatic zones, and three tropical tree genera, and point to future applications in paleoclimatology.

Rich Sliding Motion and Dynamics in a Filippov Plant-Disease System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Can; Chen, Xi

In order to reduce the spread of plant diseases and maintain the number of infected trees below an economic threshold, we choose the number of infected trees and the number of susceptible plants as the control indexes on whether to implement control strategies. Then a Filippov plant-disease model incorporating cutting off infected branches and replanting susceptible trees is proposed. Based on the theory of Filippov system, the sliding mode dynamics and conditions for the existence of all the possible equilibria and Lotka-Volterra cycles are presented. We find that model solutions ultimately approach the positive equilibrium that lies in the region above the infected threshold value TI, or the periodic trajectories that lie in the region below TI, or the pseudo-attractor ET = (TS,TI), as we vary the susceptible and infected threshold values. It indicates that the plant-disease transmission is tolerable if the trajectories approach ET = (TS,TI) or the periodic trajectories lie in the region below TI. Hence an acceptable level of the number of infected trees can be achieved when the susceptible and infected threshold values are chosen appropriately.

So many genes, so little time: A practical approach to divergence-time estimation in the genomic era

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Phylogenomic datasets have been successfully used to address questions involving evolutionary relationships, patterns of genome structure, signatures of selection, and gene and genome duplications. However, despite the recent explosion in genomic and transcriptomic data, the utility of these data sources for efficient divergence-time inference remains unexamined. Phylogenomic datasets pose two distinct problems for divergence-time estimation: (i) the volume of data makes inference of the entire dataset intractable, and (ii) the extent of underlying topological and rate heterogeneity across genes makes model mis-specification a real concern. “Gene shopping”, wherein a phylogenomic dataset is winnowed to a set of genes with desirable properties, represents an alternative approach that holds promise in alleviating these issues. We implemented an approach for phylogenomic datasets (available in SortaDate) that filters genes by three criteria: (i) clock-likeness, (ii) reasonable tree length (i.e., discernible information content), and (iii) least topological conflict with a focal species tree (presumed to have already been inferred). Such a winnowing procedure ensures that errors associated with model (both clock and topology) mis-specification are minimized, therefore reducing error in divergence-time estimation. We demonstrated the efficacy of this approach through simulation and applied it to published animal (Aves, Diplopoda, and Hymenoptera) and plant (carnivorous Caryophyllales, broad Caryophyllales, and Vitales) phylogenomic datasets. By quantifying rate heterogeneity across both genes and lineages we found that every empirical dataset examined included genes with clock-like, or nearly clock-like, behavior. Moreover, many datasets had genes that were clock-like, exhibited reasonable evolutionary rates, and were mostly compatible with the species tree. We identified overlap in age estimates when analyzing these filtered genes under strict clock and uncorrelated lognormal (UCLN) models. However, this overlap was often due to imprecise estimates from the UCLN model. We find that “gene shopping” can be an efficient approach to divergence-time inference for phylogenomic datasets that may otherwise be characterized by extensive gene tree heterogeneity. PMID:29772020

So many genes, so little time: A practical approach to divergence-time estimation in the genomic era.

PubMed

Smith, Stephen A; Brown, Joseph W; Walker, Joseph F

2018-01-01

Phylogenomic datasets have been successfully used to address questions involving evolutionary relationships, patterns of genome structure, signatures of selection, and gene and genome duplications. However, despite the recent explosion in genomic and transcriptomic data, the utility of these data sources for efficient divergence-time inference remains unexamined. Phylogenomic datasets pose two distinct problems for divergence-time estimation: (i) the volume of data makes inference of the entire dataset intractable, and (ii) the extent of underlying topological and rate heterogeneity across genes makes model mis-specification a real concern. "Gene shopping", wherein a phylogenomic dataset is winnowed to a set of genes with desirable properties, represents an alternative approach that holds promise in alleviating these issues. We implemented an approach for phylogenomic datasets (available in SortaDate) that filters genes by three criteria: (i) clock-likeness, (ii) reasonable tree length (i.e., discernible information content), and (iii) least topological conflict with a focal species tree (presumed to have already been inferred). Such a winnowing procedure ensures that errors associated with model (both clock and topology) mis-specification are minimized, therefore reducing error in divergence-time estimation. We demonstrated the efficacy of this approach through simulation and applied it to published animal (Aves, Diplopoda, and Hymenoptera) and plant (carnivorous Caryophyllales, broad Caryophyllales, and Vitales) phylogenomic datasets. By quantifying rate heterogeneity across both genes and lineages we found that every empirical dataset examined included genes with clock-like, or nearly clock-like, behavior. Moreover, many datasets had genes that were clock-like, exhibited reasonable evolutionary rates, and were mostly compatible with the species tree. We identified overlap in age estimates when analyzing these filtered genes under strict clock and uncorrelated lognormal (UCLN) models. However, this overlap was often due to imprecise estimates from the UCLN model. We find that "gene shopping" can be an efficient approach to divergence-time inference for phylogenomic datasets that may otherwise be characterized by extensive gene tree heterogeneity.

Extensive characterization of Tupaia belangeri neuropeptidome using an integrated mass spectrometric approach.

PubMed

Petruzziello, Filomena; Fouillen, Laetitia; Wadensten, Henrik; Kretz, Robert; Andren, Per E; Rainer, Gregor; Zhang, Xiaozhe

2012-02-03

Neuropeptidomics is used to characterize endogenous peptides in the brain of tree shrews (Tupaia belangeri). Tree shrews are small animals similar to rodents in size but close relatives of primates, and are excellent models for brain research. Currently, tree shrews have no complete proteome information available on which direct database search can be allowed for neuropeptide identification. To increase the capability in the identification of neuropeptides in tree shrews, we developed an integrated mass spectrometry (MS)-based approach that combines methods including data-dependent, directed, and targeted liquid chromatography (LC)-Fourier transform (FT)-tandem MS (MS/MS) analysis, database construction, de novo sequencing, precursor protein search, and homology analysis. Using this integrated approach, we identified 107 endogenous peptides that have sequences identical or similar to those from other mammalian species. High accuracy MS and tandem MS information, with BLAST analysis and chromatographic characteristics were used to confirm the sequences of all the identified peptides. Interestingly, further sequence homology analysis demonstrated that tree shrew peptides have a significantly higher degree of homology to equivalent sequences in humans than those in mice or rats, consistent with the close phylogenetic relationship between tree shrews and primates. Our results provide the first extensive characterization of the peptidome in tree shrews, which now permits characterization of their function in nervous and endocrine system. As the approach developed fully used the conservative properties of neuropeptides in evolution and the advantage of high accuracy MS, it can be portable for identification of neuropeptides in other species for which the fully sequenced genomes or proteomes are not available.

SWPhylo - A Novel Tool for Phylogenomic Inferences by Comparison of Oligonucleotide Patterns and Integration of Genome-Based and Gene-Based Phylogenetic Trees.

PubMed

Yu, Xiaoyu; Reva, Oleg N

2018-01-01

Modern phylogenetic studies may benefit from the analysis of complete genome sequences of various microorganisms. Evolutionary inferences based on genome-scale analysis are believed to be more accurate than the gene-based alternative. However, the computational complexity of current phylogenomic procedures, inappropriateness of standard phylogenetic tools to process genome-wide data, and lack of reliable substitution models which correlates with alignment-free phylogenomic approaches deter microbiologists from using these opportunities. For example, the super-matrix and super-tree approaches of phylogenomics use multiple integrated genomic loci or individual gene-based trees to infer an overall consensus tree. However, these approaches potentially multiply errors of gene annotation and sequence alignment not mentioning the computational complexity and laboriousness of the methods. In this article, we demonstrate that the annotation- and alignment-free comparison of genome-wide tetranucleotide frequencies, termed oligonucleotide usage patterns (OUPs), allowed a fast and reliable inference of phylogenetic trees. These were congruent to the corresponding whole genome super-matrix trees in terms of tree topology when compared with other known approaches including 16S ribosomal RNA and GyrA protein sequence comparison, complete genome-based MAUVE, and CVTree methods. A Web-based program to perform the alignment-free OUP-based phylogenomic inferences was implemented at http://swphylo.bi.up.ac.za/. Applicability of the tool was tested on different taxa from subspecies to intergeneric levels. Distinguishing between closely related taxonomic units may be enforced by providing the program with alignments of marker protein sequences, eg, GyrA.

SWPhylo – A Novel Tool for Phylogenomic Inferences by Comparison of Oligonucleotide Patterns and Integration of Genome-Based and Gene-Based Phylogenetic Trees

PubMed Central

Yu, Xiaoyu; Reva, Oleg N

2018-01-01

Modern phylogenetic studies may benefit from the analysis of complete genome sequences of various microorganisms. Evolutionary inferences based on genome-scale analysis are believed to be more accurate than the gene-based alternative. However, the computational complexity of current phylogenomic procedures, inappropriateness of standard phylogenetic tools to process genome-wide data, and lack of reliable substitution models which correlates with alignment-free phylogenomic approaches deter microbiologists from using these opportunities. For example, the super-matrix and super-tree approaches of phylogenomics use multiple integrated genomic loci or individual gene-based trees to infer an overall consensus tree. However, these approaches potentially multiply errors of gene annotation and sequence alignment not mentioning the computational complexity and laboriousness of the methods. In this article, we demonstrate that the annotation- and alignment-free comparison of genome-wide tetranucleotide frequencies, termed oligonucleotide usage patterns (OUPs), allowed a fast and reliable inference of phylogenetic trees. These were congruent to the corresponding whole genome super-matrix trees in terms of tree topology when compared with other known approaches including 16S ribosomal RNA and GyrA protein sequence comparison, complete genome-based MAUVE, and CVTree methods. A Web-based program to perform the alignment-free OUP-based phylogenomic inferences was implemented at http://swphylo.bi.up.ac.za/. Applicability of the tool was tested on different taxa from subspecies to intergeneric levels. Distinguishing between closely related taxonomic units may be enforced by providing the program with alignments of marker protein sequences, eg, GyrA. PMID:29511354

New analytic results for speciation times in neutral models.

PubMed

Gernhard, Tanja

2008-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the standard Yule model, and a recently studied model of speciation and extinction, the "critical branching process." We develop an analytic way-as opposed to the common simulation approach-for calculating the speciation times in a reconstructed phylogenetic tree. Simple expressions for the density and the moments of the speciation times are obtained. Methods for dating a speciation event become valuable, if for the reconstructed phylogenetic trees, no time scale is available. A missing time scale could be due to supertree methods, morphological data, or molecular data which violates the molecular clock. Our analytic approach is, in particular, useful for the model with extinction, since simulations of birth-death processes which are conditioned on obtaining n extant species today are quite delicate. Further, simulations are very time consuming for big n under both models.

Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic-envelope approach.

PubMed

Notaro, Michael; Mauss, Adrien; Williams, John W

2012-06-01

This study focuses on potential impacts of 21st century climate change on vegetation in the Southwest United States, based on debiased and interpolated climate projections from 17 global climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among these models a warming trend is universal, but projected changes in precipitation vary in sign and magnitude. Two independent methods are applied: a dynamic global vegetation model to assess changes in plant functional types and bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess changes in individual tree and shrub species and biodiversity. The former approach investigates broad responses of plant functional types to climate change, while considering competition, disturbances, and carbon fertilization, while the latter approach focuses on the response of individual plant species, and net biodiversity, to climate change. The dynamic model simulates a region-wide reduction in vegetation cover during the 21st century, with a partial replacement of evergreen trees with grasses in the mountains of Colorado and Utah, except at the highest elevations, where tree cover increases. Across southern Arizona, central New Mexico, and eastern Colorado, grass cover declines, in some cases abruptly. Due to the prevalent warming trend among all 17 climate models, vegetation cover declines in the 21st century, with the greatest vegetation losses associated with models that project a drying trend. The inclusion of the carbon fertilization effect largely ameliorates the projected vegetation loss. Based on bioclimatic envelope modeling for the 21st century, the number of tree and shrub species that are expected to experience robust declines in range likely outweighs the number of species that are expected to expand in range. Dramatic shifts in plant species richness are projected, with declines in the high-elevation evergreen forests, increases in the eastern New Mexico prairies, and a northward shift of the Sonoran Desert biodiversity maximum.

Individualized Prediction of Heat Stress in Firefighters: A Data-Driven Approach Using Classification and Regression Trees.

PubMed

Mani, Ashutosh; Rao, Marepalli; James, Kelley; Bhattacharya, Amit

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore data-driven models, based on decision trees, to develop practical and easy to use predictive models for early identification of firefighters who are likely to cross the threshold of hyperthermia during live-fire training. Predictive models were created for three consecutive live-fire training scenarios. The final predicted outcome was a categorical variable: will a firefighter cross the upper threshold of hyperthermia - Yes/No. Two tiers of models were built, one with and one without taking into account the outcome (whether a firefighter crossed hyperthermia or not) from the previous training scenario. First tier of models included age, baseline heart rate and core body temperature, body mass index, and duration of training scenario as predictors. The second tier of models included the outcome of the previous scenario in the prediction space, in addition to all the predictors from the first tier of models. Classification and regression trees were used independently for prediction. The response variable for the regression tree was the quantitative variable: core body temperature at the end of each scenario. The predicted quantitative variable from regression trees was compared to the upper threshold of hyperthermia (38°C) to predict whether a firefighter would enter hyperthermia. The performance of classification and regression tree models was satisfactory for the second (success rate = 79%) and third (success rate = 89%) training scenarios but not for the first (success rate = 43%). Data-driven models based on decision trees can be a useful tool for predicting physiological response without modeling the underlying physiological systems. Early prediction of heat stress coupled with proactive interventions, such as pre-cooling, can help reduce heat stress in firefighters.

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

2015-01-01

Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

Accounting for small scale heterogeneity in ecohydrologic watershed models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskar, A.; Fleming, B.; Hogan, D. M.

2016-12-01

Spatially distributed ecohydrologic models are inherently constrained by the spatial resolution of their smallest units, below which land and processes are assumed to be homogenous. At coarse scales, heterogeneity is often accounted for by computing store and fluxes of interest over a distribution of land cover types (or other sources of heterogeneity) within spatially explicit modeling units. However this approach ignores spatial organization and the lateral transfer of water and materials downslope. The challenge is to account both for the role of flow network topology and fine-scale heterogeneity. We present a new approach that defines two levels of spatial aggregation and that integrates spatially explicit network approach with a flexible representation of finer-scale aspatial heterogeneity. Critically, this solution does not simply increase the resolution of the smallest spatial unit, and so by comparison, results in improved computational efficiency. The approach is demonstrated by adapting Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), an ecohydrologic model widely used to simulate climate, land use, and land management impacts. We illustrate the utility of our approach by showing how the model can be used to better characterize forest thinning impacts on ecohydrology. Forest thinning is typically done at the scale of individual trees, and yet management responses of interest include impacts on watershed scale hydrology and on downslope riparian vegetation. Our approach allow us to characterize the variability in tree size/carbon reduction and water transfers between neighboring trees while still capturing hillslope to watershed scale effects, Our illustrative example demonstrates that accounting for these fine scale effects can substantially alter model estimates, in some cases shifting the impacts of thinning on downslope water availability from increases to decreases. We conclude by describing other use cases that may benefit from this approach including characterizing urban vegetation and storm water management features and their impact on watershed scale hydrology and biogeochemical cycling.

Accounting for small scale heterogeneity in ecohydrologic watershed models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, W.; Tague, C.

2017-12-01

Spatially distributed ecohydrologic models are inherently constrained by the spatial resolution of their smallest units, below which land and processes are assumed to be homogenous. At coarse scales, heterogeneity is often accounted for by computing store and fluxes of interest over a distribution of land cover types (or other sources of heterogeneity) within spatially explicit modeling units. However this approach ignores spatial organization and the lateral transfer of water and materials downslope. The challenge is to account both for the role of flow network topology and fine-scale heterogeneity. We present a new approach that defines two levels of spatial aggregation and that integrates spatially explicit network approach with a flexible representation of finer-scale aspatial heterogeneity. Critically, this solution does not simply increase the resolution of the smallest spatial unit, and so by comparison, results in improved computational efficiency. The approach is demonstrated by adapting Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), an ecohydrologic model widely used to simulate climate, land use, and land management impacts. We illustrate the utility of our approach by showing how the model can be used to better characterize forest thinning impacts on ecohydrology. Forest thinning is typically done at the scale of individual trees, and yet management responses of interest include impacts on watershed scale hydrology and on downslope riparian vegetation. Our approach allow us to characterize the variability in tree size/carbon reduction and water transfers between neighboring trees while still capturing hillslope to watershed scale effects, Our illustrative example demonstrates that accounting for these fine scale effects can substantially alter model estimates, in some cases shifting the impacts of thinning on downslope water availability from increases to decreases. We conclude by describing other use cases that may benefit from this approach including characterizing urban vegetation and storm water management features and their impact on watershed scale hydrology and biogeochemical cycling.

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

PubMed Central

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

Aerodynamic effects of trees on pollutant concentration in street canyons.

PubMed

Buccolieri, Riccardo; Gromke, Christof; Di Sabatino, Silvana; Ruck, Bodo

2009-09-15

This paper deals with aerodynamic effects of avenue-like tree planting on flow and traffic-originated pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons by means of wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations. Several parameters affecting pedestrian level concentration are investigated, namely plant morphology, positioning and arrangement. We extend our previous work in this novel aspect of research to new configurations which comprise tree planting of different crown porosity and stand density, planted in two rows within a canyon of street width to building height ratio W/H=2 with perpendicular approaching wind. Sulfur hexafluoride was used as tracer gas to model the traffic emissions. Complementary to wind tunnel experiments, 3D numerical simulations were performed with the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT using a Reynolds Stress turbulence closure for flow and the advection-diffusion method for concentration calculations. In the presence of trees, both measurements and simulations showed considerable larger pollutant concentrations near the leeward wall and slightly lower concentrations near the windward wall in comparison with the tree-less case. Tree stand density and crown porosity were found to be of minor importance in affecting pollutant concentration. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that W/H is a more crucial parameter. The larger the value of W/H the smaller is the effect of trees on pedestrian level concentration regardless of tree morphology and arrangement. A preliminary analysis of approaching flow velocities showed that at low wind speed the effect of trees on concentrations is worst than at higher speed. The investigations carried out in this work allowed us to set up an appropriate CFD modelling methodology for the study of the aerodynamic effects of tree planting in street canyons. The results obtained can be used by city planners for the design of tree planting in the urban environment with regard to air quality issues.

Evolving optimised decision rules for intrusion detection using particle swarm paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivatha Sindhu, Siva S.; Geetha, S.; Kannan, A.

2012-12-01

The aim of this article is to construct a practical intrusion detection system (IDS) that properly analyses the statistics of network traffic pattern and classify them as normal or anomalous class. The objective of this article is to prove that the choice of effective network traffic features and a proficient machine-learning paradigm enhances the detection accuracy of IDS. In this article, a rule-based approach with a family of six decision tree classifiers, namely Decision Stump, C4.5, Naive Baye's Tree, Random Forest, Random Tree and Representative Tree model to perform the detection of anomalous network pattern is introduced. In particular, the proposed swarm optimisation-based approach selects instances that compose training set and optimised decision tree operate over this trained set producing classification rules with improved coverage, classification capability and generalisation ability. Experiment with the Knowledge Discovery and Data mining (KDD) data set which have information on traffic pattern, during normal and intrusive behaviour shows that the proposed algorithm produces optimised decision rules and outperforms other machine-learning algorithm.

Implications of Liebig’s law of the minimum for tree-ring reconstructions of climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stine, A. R.; Huybers, P.

2017-11-01

A basic principle of ecology, known as Liebig’s Law of the Minimum, is that plant growth reflects the strongest limiting environmental factor. This principle implies that a limiting environmental factor can be inferred from historical growth and, in dendrochronology, such reconstruction is generally achieved by averaging collections of standardized tree-ring records. Averaging is optimal if growth reflects a single limiting factor and noise but not if growth also reflects locally variable stresses that intermittently limit growth. In this study a collection of Arctic tree ring records is shown to follow scaling relationships that are inconsistent with the signal-plus-noise model of tree growth but consistent with Liebig’s Law acting at the local level. Also consistent with law-of-the-minimum behavior is that reconstructions based on the least-stressed trees in a given year better-follow variations in temperature than typical approaches where all tree-ring records are averaged. Improvements in reconstruction skill occur across all frequencies, with the greatest increase at the lowest frequencies. More comprehensive statistical-ecological models of tree growth may offer further improvement in reconstruction skill.

Spatial prediction of landslides using a hybrid machine learning approach based on Random Subspace and Classification and Regression Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Binh Thai; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

2018-02-01

A hybrid machine learning approach of Random Subspace (RSS) and Classification And Regression Trees (CART) is proposed to develop a model named RSSCART for spatial prediction of landslides. This model is a combination of the RSS method which is known as an efficient ensemble technique and the CART which is a state of the art classifier. The Luc Yen district of Yen Bai province, a prominent landslide prone area of Viet Nam, was selected for the model development. Performance of the RSSCART model was evaluated through the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, statistical analysis methods, and the Chi Square test. Results were compared with other benchmark landslide models namely Support Vector Machines (SVM), single CART, Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Logistic Regression (LR). In the development of model, ten important landslide affecting factors related with geomorphology, geology and geo-environment were considered namely slope angles, elevation, slope aspect, curvature, lithology, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, and rainfall. Performance of the RSSCART model (AUC = 0.841) is the best compared with other popular landslide models namely SVM (0.835), single CART (0.822), NBT (0.821), and LR (0.723). These results indicate that performance of the RSSCART is a promising method for spatial landslide prediction.

Testing a hydraulic trait based model of stomatal control: results from a controlled drought experiment on aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, D. M.; Venturas, M.; Sperry, J.; Wang, Y.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Modeling approaches for tree stomatal control often rely on empirical fitting to provide accurate estimates of whole tree transpiration (E) and assimilation (A), which are limited in their predictive power by the data envelope used to calibrate model parameters. Optimization based models hold promise as a means to predict stomatal behavior under novel climate conditions. We designed an experiment to test a hydraulic trait based optimization model, which predicts stomatal conductance from a gain/risk approach. Optimal stomatal conductance is expected to maximize the potential carbon gain by photosynthesis, and minimize the risk to hydraulic transport imposed by cavitation. The modeled risk to the hydraulic network is assessed from cavitation vulnerability curves, a commonly measured physiological trait in woody plant species. Over a growing season garden grown plots of aspen (Populus tremuloides, Michx.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Douglas) were subjected to three distinct drought treatments (moderate, severe, severe with rehydration) relative to a control plot to test model predictions. Model outputs of predicted E, A, and xylem pressure can be directly compared to both continuous data (whole tree sapflux, soil moisture) and point measurements (leaf level E, A, xylem pressure). The model also predicts levels of whole tree hydraulic impairment expected to increase mortality risk. This threshold is used to estimate survivorship in the drought treatment plots. The model can be run at two scales, either entirely from climate (meteorological inputs, irrigation) or using the physiological measurements as a starting point. These data will be used to study model performance and utility, and aid in developing the model for larger scale applications.

A Metric on Phylogenetic Tree Shapes.

PubMed

Colijn, C; Plazzotta, G

2018-01-01

The shapes of evolutionary trees are influenced by the nature of the evolutionary process but comparisons of trees from different processes are hindered by the challenge of completely describing tree shape. We present a full characterization of the shapes of rooted branching trees in a form that lends itself to natural tree comparisons. We use this characterization to define a metric, in the sense of a true distance function, on tree shapes. The metric distinguishes trees from random models known to produce different tree shapes. It separates trees derived from tropical versus USA influenza A sequences, which reflect the differing epidemiology of tropical and seasonal flu. We describe several metrics based on the same core characterization, and illustrate how to extend the metric to incorporate trees' branch lengths or other features such as overall imbalance. Our approach allows us to construct addition and multiplication on trees, and to create a convex metric on tree shapes which formally allows computation of average tree shapes. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Traveling front solutions to directed diffusion-limited aggregation, digital search trees, and the Lempel-Ziv data compression algorithm.

PubMed

Majumdar, Satya N

2003-08-01

We use the traveling front approach to derive exact asymptotic results for the statistics of the number of particles in a class of directed diffusion-limited aggregation models on a Cayley tree. We point out that some aspects of these models are closely connected to two different problems in computer science, namely, the digital search tree problem in data structures and the Lempel-Ziv algorithm for data compression. The statistics of the number of particles studied here is related to the statistics of height in digital search trees which, in turn, is related to the statistics of the length of the longest word formed by the Lempel-Ziv algorithm. Implications of our results to these computer science problems are pointed out.

Traveling front solutions to directed diffusion-limited aggregation, digital search trees, and the Lempel-Ziv data compression algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majumdar, Satya N.

2003-08-01

We use the traveling front approach to derive exact asymptotic results for the statistics of the number of particles in a class of directed diffusion-limited aggregation models on a Cayley tree. We point out that some aspects of these models are closely connected to two different problems in computer science, namely, the digital search tree problem in data structures and the Lempel-Ziv algorithm for data compression. The statistics of the number of particles studied here is related to the statistics of height in digital search trees which, in turn, is related to the statistics of the length of the longest word formed by the Lempel-Ziv algorithm. Implications of our results to these computer science problems are pointed out.

Dynamic replanning of 3D automated reconstruction using situation graph trees and illumination adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Sophie; Far, Aïcha Beya; Hirsch, Ernest

2007-01-01

This paper presents an original approach for the optimal 3D reconstruction of manufactured workpieces based on a priori planification of the task, enhanced on-line through dynamic adjustment of the lighting conditions, and built around a cognitive intelligent sensory system using so-called Situation Graph Trees. The system takes explicitely structural knowledge related to image acquisition conditions, type of illumination sources, contents of the scene (e. g., CAD models and tolerance information), etc. into account. The principle of the approach relies on two steps. First, a socalled initialization phase, leading to the a priori task plan, collects this structural knowledge. This knowledge is conveniently encoded, as a sub-part, in the Situation Graph Tree building the backbone of the planning system specifying exhaustively the behavior of the application. Second, the image is iteratively evaluated under the control of this Situation Graph Tree. The information describing the quality of the piece to analyze is thus extracted and further exploited for, e. g., inspection tasks. Lastly, the approach enables dynamic adjustment of the Situation Graph Tree, enabling the system to adjust itself to the actual application run-time conditions, thus providing the system with a self-learning capability.

Forest disturbance spurs growth of modeling and technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Mirfenderesgi, G.; Morin, T. H.; Rey Sanchez, A. C.; Gough, C. M.; Vogel, C. S.; Nadelhoffer, K. J.; Curtis, P.

2016-12-01

As new opportunities for scientific exploration open, needs for data generate a drive for innovative developments of new research tools. The Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET) was enacted in 2007, continuous flux observations at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) since 2000. FASET is a large-scale ecological experiment testing the immediate and intermediate term effects of disturbance, and eventually, the role of succession and community composition on forest flux dynamics. Decades-long tree-level observations in the UMBS forest, combined with the long term flux observations allowed us to match the bottom-up accumulated response of individual trees with the top-down whole-plot response measured from the flux tower. However, data describing tree-level canopy structure and hydrological response over an entire plot were not readily available. Unintentionally, FASET became both a motivation and a test-bed for new research tools and approaches. We expanded the operation and analysis approach for a portable canopy LiDARfor 3-D measurements meter-scale canopy structure. We matched canopy LiDAR measurements with root measurements from ground penetrating radar. To study the hydrological effects of the disturbance, we instrumented a large number of trees with Granier-style sap flux sensors. We further developed an approach to use frequency domain reflectometry sensors for continuous measurements of tree water content. We developed an approach to combine plot census, allometry and sap-flux observations in a bottom-up fashion to compare with plot-level EC transpiration rates. We found that while the transpirational water demand in the disturbance plot increased, overall evapotranspiration decreased. This decrease, however, is not uniform across species. A new individual-plant to ecosystem scale hydrodynamic model (FETCH2) demonstrates how specific traits translate to intra-daily differences in plot-level transpiration dynamics.

Assessing Earthquake-Induced Tree Mortality in Temperate Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from Wenchuan, China

DOE PAGES

Zeng, Hongcheng; Lu, Tao; Jenkins, Hillary; ...

2016-03-17

Earthquakes can produce significant tree mortality, and consequently affect regional carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, detailed studies quantifying the influence of earthquake on forest mortality are currently rare. The committed forest biomass carbon loss associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China is assessed by a synthetic approach in this study that integrated field investigation, remote sensing analysis, empirical models and Monte Carlo simulation. The newly developed approach significantly improved the forest disturbance evaluation by quantitatively defining the earthquake impact boundary and detailed field survey to validate the mortality models. Based on our approach, a total biomass carbon of 10.9 Tg·C wasmore » lost in Wenchuan earthquake, which offset 0.23% of the living biomass carbon stock in Chinese forests. Tree mortality was highly clustered at epicenter, and declined rapidly with distance away from the fault zone. It is suggested that earthquakes represent a signif icant driver to forest carbon dynamics, and the earthquake-induced biomass carbon loss should be included in estimating forest carbon budgets.« less

Assessing Earthquake-Induced Tree Mortality in Temperate Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from Wenchuan, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Hongcheng; Lu, Tao; Jenkins, Hillary

Earthquakes can produce significant tree mortality, and consequently affect regional carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, detailed studies quantifying the influence of earthquake on forest mortality are currently rare. The committed forest biomass carbon loss associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China is assessed by a synthetic approach in this study that integrated field investigation, remote sensing analysis, empirical models and Monte Carlo simulation. The newly developed approach significantly improved the forest disturbance evaluation by quantitatively defining the earthquake impact boundary and detailed field survey to validate the mortality models. Based on our approach, a total biomass carbon of 10.9 Tg·C wasmore » lost in Wenchuan earthquake, which offset 0.23% of the living biomass carbon stock in Chinese forests. Tree mortality was highly clustered at epicenter, and declined rapidly with distance away from the fault zone. It is suggested that earthquakes represent a signif icant driver to forest carbon dynamics, and the earthquake-induced biomass carbon loss should be included in estimating forest carbon budgets.« less

Monthly paleostreamflow reconstruction from annual tree-ring chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, J. H.; Rosenberg, D. E.; DeRose, R. J.; Rittenour, T. M.

2018-02-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26-0.60) for all months except April and Pearson's correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a larger range of natural variability in drought and pluvial events and better evaluate extreme events with recurrence intervals longer than the observed record. Establishing this natural baseline is critical when estimating future hydrologic risks under conditions of a non-stationary climate.

Lessons learned while integrating habitat, dispersal, disturbance, and life-history traits into species habitat models under climate change

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2011-01-01

We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134...

Species-richness of the Anopheles annulipes Complex (Diptera: Culicidae) Revealed by Tree and Model-Based Allozyme Clustering Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

including tree- based methods such as the unweighted pair group method of analysis ( UPGMA ) and Neighbour-joining (NJ) (Saitou & Nei, 1987). By...based Bayesian approach and the tree-based UPGMA and NJ cluster- ing methods. The results obtained suggest that far more species occur in the An...unlikely that groups that differ by more than these levels are conspecific. Genetic distances were clustered using the UPGMA and NJ algorithms in MEGA

B-tree search reinforcement learning for model based intelligent agent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuvaneswari, S.; Vignashwaran, R.

2013-03-01

Agents trained by learning techniques provide a powerful approximation of active solutions for naive approaches. In this study using B - Trees implying reinforced learning the data search for information retrieval is moderated to achieve accuracy with minimum search time. The impact of variables and tactics applied in training are determined using reinforcement learning. Agents based on these techniques perform satisfactory baseline and act as finite agents based on the predetermined model against competitors from the course.

Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderegg, William R.L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

2015-01-01

The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.

The use of GIS and modelling approaches in squirrel population management and conservation: A review

Treesearch

P. W. W. Lurz; J. L. Koprowski; D. J. A. Wood

2008-01-01

We review modelling approaches in relation to three key areas of sciurid ecology: management, disease risk assessments and conservation. Models enable us to explore different scenarios to develop effective management and conservation strategies. They may also assist in identifying and targeting research needs for tree and flying squirrels. However, there is a need to...

Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project. PMID:26339227

Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects.

PubMed

Shin, Yoonseok

2015-01-01

Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

Cause-Effect Relations with Regard to Functional and Morphological Humus Characteristics in Mixed Forest Stands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schua, K.; Feger, K.-H.; Wagner, S.; Eisenhauer, D.-R.; Raben, G.

2009-04-01

A major argument brought forward when giving reasons for the admixture of deciduous tree species into coniferous forest stands is the amelioration and stabilization of biogeochemical cycles. An ecologically oriented silviculture relies on detailed knowledge about the ecosystem effects of practical measures. Thus, it focuses on the ‘amelioration potential' of a specific tree species with respect to changes of topsoil characteristics in typical monocultural situations. Up-to-now, few data is available concerning the percentages of deciduous species (degree of admixture) or type of admixture (single-tree, small or large groups) required to achieve desired effects, e.g. faster decomposition and incorporation of organic matter in the mineral soil. Thus, the objective of this study is (1) to analyze the impact of admixtures on topsoil properties and processes, and (2) to establish spatial models of such effects. The experiments are conducted in even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] KARST.) stands with a variable admixture of Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) in the Ore Mountains (Saxony, SE Germany). The approach starts with explanation of single-tree-effects and approves in a next step the enlargement to forest stand ("from-point-to-area-approach"). This attempt is expected to provide models with few parameters which can be used to modify the common exclusive growth models.

Valuing a log: alternative approaches.

Treesearch

R.V. Nagubadi; R.D. Fight; R.J. Barbour

2003-01-01

The gross value of products that can be manufactured from a tree is the starting point for a residual-value appraisal of a forest operation involving the harvest of trees suitable for making forest products. The amount of detail in a model of gross product value will affect the statistical properties of the estimate and the amount of ancillary information that is...

Assessing tree and stand biomass: a review with examples and critical comparisons

Treesearch

Bernard R. Parresol

1999-01-01

There is considerable interest today in estimating the biomass of trees and forests for both practical forestry issues and scientific purposes. New techniques and procedures are brought together along with the more traditional approaches to estimating woody biomass. General model forms and weighted analysis are reviewed, along with statistics for evaluating and...

From learning taxonomies to phylogenetic learning: integration of 16S rRNA gene data into FAME-based bacterial classification.

PubMed

Slabbinck, Bram; Waegeman, Willem; Dawyndt, Peter; De Vos, Paul; De Baets, Bernard

2010-01-30

Machine learning techniques have shown to improve bacterial species classification based on fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) data. Nonetheless, FAME analysis has a limited resolution for discrimination of bacteria at the species level. In this paper, we approach the species classification problem from a taxonomic point of view. Such a taxonomy or tree is typically obtained by applying clustering algorithms on FAME data or on 16S rRNA gene data. The knowledge gained from the tree can then be used to evaluate FAME-based classifiers, resulting in a novel framework for bacterial species classification. In view of learning in a taxonomic framework, we consider two types of trees. First, a FAME tree is constructed with a supervised divisive clustering algorithm. Subsequently, based on 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, phylogenetic trees are inferred by the NJ and UPGMA methods. In this second approach, the species classification problem is based on the combination of two different types of data. Herein, 16S rRNA gene sequence data is used for phylogenetic tree inference and the corresponding binary tree splits are learned based on FAME data. We call this learning approach 'phylogenetic learning'. Supervised Random Forest models are developed to train the classification tasks in a stratified cross-validation setting. In this way, better classification results are obtained for species that are typically hard to distinguish by a single or flat multi-class classification model. FAME-based bacterial species classification is successfully evaluated in a taxonomic framework. Although the proposed approach does not improve the overall accuracy compared to flat multi-class classification, it has some distinct advantages. First, it has better capabilities for distinguishing species on which flat multi-class classification fails. Secondly, the hierarchical classification structure allows to easily evaluate and visualize the resolution of FAME data for the discrimination of bacterial species. Summarized, by phylogenetic learning we are able to situate and evaluate FAME-based bacterial species classification in a more informative context.

From learning taxonomies to phylogenetic learning: Integration of 16S rRNA gene data into FAME-based bacterial classification

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Machine learning techniques have shown to improve bacterial species classification based on fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) data. Nonetheless, FAME analysis has a limited resolution for discrimination of bacteria at the species level. In this paper, we approach the species classification problem from a taxonomic point of view. Such a taxonomy or tree is typically obtained by applying clustering algorithms on FAME data or on 16S rRNA gene data. The knowledge gained from the tree can then be used to evaluate FAME-based classifiers, resulting in a novel framework for bacterial species classification. Results In view of learning in a taxonomic framework, we consider two types of trees. First, a FAME tree is constructed with a supervised divisive clustering algorithm. Subsequently, based on 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, phylogenetic trees are inferred by the NJ and UPGMA methods. In this second approach, the species classification problem is based on the combination of two different types of data. Herein, 16S rRNA gene sequence data is used for phylogenetic tree inference and the corresponding binary tree splits are learned based on FAME data. We call this learning approach 'phylogenetic learning'. Supervised Random Forest models are developed to train the classification tasks in a stratified cross-validation setting. In this way, better classification results are obtained for species that are typically hard to distinguish by a single or flat multi-class classification model. Conclusions FAME-based bacterial species classification is successfully evaluated in a taxonomic framework. Although the proposed approach does not improve the overall accuracy compared to flat multi-class classification, it has some distinct advantages. First, it has better capabilities for distinguishing species on which flat multi-class classification fails. Secondly, the hierarchical classification structure allows to easily evaluate and visualize the resolution of FAME data for the discrimination of bacterial species. Summarized, by phylogenetic learning we are able to situate and evaluate FAME-based bacterial species classification in a more informative context. PMID:20113515

Protein attributes contribute to halo-stability, bioinformatics approach

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Halophile proteins can tolerate high salt concentrations. Understanding halophilicity features is the first step toward engineering halostable crops. To this end, we examined protein features contributing to the halo-toleration of halophilic organisms. We compared more than 850 features for halophilic and non-halophilic proteins with various screening, clustering, decision tree, and generalized rule induction models to search for patterns that code for halo-toleration. Up to 251 protein attributes selected by various attribute weighting algorithms as important features contribute to halo-stability; from them 14 attributes selected by 90% of models and the count of hydrogen gained the highest value (1.0) in 70% of attribute weighting models, showing the importance of this attribute in feature selection modeling. The other attributes mostly were the frequencies of di-peptides. No changes were found in the numbers of groups when K-Means and TwoStep clustering modeling were performed on datasets with or without feature selection filtering. Although the depths of induced trees were not high, the accuracies of trees were higher than 94% and the frequency of hydrophobic residues pointed as the most important feature to build trees. The performance evaluation of decision tree models had the same values and the best correctness percentage recorded with the Exhaustive CHAID and CHAID models. We did not find any significant difference in the percent of correctness, performance evaluation, and mean correctness of various decision tree models with or without feature selection. For the first time, we analyzed the performance of different screening, clustering, and decision tree algorithms for discriminating halophilic and non-halophilic proteins and the results showed that amino acid composition can be used to discriminate between halo-tolerant and halo-sensitive proteins. PMID:21592393

Novel forecasting approaches using combination of machine learning and statistical models for flood susceptibility mapping.

PubMed

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Valavi, Roozbeh; Shahabi, Himan; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah

2018-07-01

In this research, eight individual machine learning and statistical models are implemented and compared, and based on their results, seven ensemble models for flood susceptibility assessment are introduced. The individual models included artificial neural networks, classification and regression trees, flexible discriminant analysis, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and maximum entropy, and the ensemble models were Ensemble Model committee averaging (EMca), Ensemble Model confidence interval Inferior (EMciInf), Ensemble Model confidence interval Superior (EMciSup), Ensemble Model to estimate the coefficient of variation (EMcv), Ensemble Model to estimate the mean (EMmean), Ensemble Model to estimate the median (EMmedian), and Ensemble Model based on weighted mean (EMwmean). The data set covered 201 flood events in the Haraz watershed (Mazandaran province in Iran) and 10,000 randomly selected non-occurrence points. Among the individual models, the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC), which showed the highest value, belonged to boosted regression trees (0.975) and the lowest value was recorded for generalized linear model (0.642). On the other hand, the proposed EMmedian resulted in the highest accuracy (0.976) among all models. In spite of the outstanding performance of some models, nevertheless, variability among the prediction of individual models was considerable. Therefore, to reduce uncertainty, creating more generalizable, more stable, and less sensitive models, ensemble forecasting approaches and in particular the EMmedian is recommended for flood susceptibility assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of properties over phylogenetic trees using stochastic logics.

PubMed

Requeno, José Ignacio; Colom, José Manuel

2016-06-14

Model checking has been recently introduced as an integrated framework for extracting information of the phylogenetic trees using temporal logics as a querying language, an extension of modal logics that imposes restrictions of a boolean formula along a path of events. The phylogenetic tree is considered a transition system modeling the evolution as a sequence of genomic mutations (we understand mutation as different ways that DNA can be changed), while this kind of logics are suitable for traversing it in a strict and exhaustive way. Given a biological property that we desire to inspect over the phylogeny, the verifier returns true if the specification is satisfied or a counterexample that falsifies it. However, this approach has been only considered over qualitative aspects of the phylogeny. In this paper, we repair the limitations of the previous framework for including and handling quantitative information such as explicit time or probability. To this end, we apply current probabilistic continuous-time extensions of model checking to phylogenetics. We reinterpret a catalog of qualitative properties in a numerical way, and we also present new properties that couldn't be analyzed before. For instance, we obtain the likelihood of a tree topology according to a mutation model. As case of study, we analyze several phylogenies in order to obtain the maximum likelihood with the model checking tool PRISM. In addition, we have adapted the software for optimizing the computation of maximum likelihoods. We have shown that probabilistic model checking is a competitive framework for describing and analyzing quantitative properties over phylogenetic trees. This formalism adds soundness and readability to the definition of models and specifications. Besides, the existence of model checking tools hides the underlying technology, omitting the extension, upgrade, debugging and maintenance of a software tool to the biologists. A set of benchmarks justify the feasibility of our approach.

Structural Analysis Of CD59 Of Chinese Tree Shrew: A New Reference Molecule For Human Immune System Specific CD59 Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Panda, Subhamay; Kumari, Leena; Panda, Santamay

2017-11-17

Chinese tree shrews (Tupaia belangeri chinensis) bear several characteristics that are considered to be very crucial for utilizing in animal experimental models in biomedical research. Subsequent to the identification of key aspects and signaling pathways in nervous and immune systems, it is revealed that tree shrews acquires shared common as well as unique characteristics, and hence offers a genetic basis for employing this animal as a prospective model for biomedical research. CD59 glycoprotein, commonly referred to as MAC-inhibitory protein (MAC-IP), membrane inhibitor of reactive lysis (MIRL), or protectin, is encoded by the CD59 gene in human beings. It is the member of the LY6/uPAR/alpha-neurotoxin protein family. With this initial point the objective of this study was to determine a comparative composite based structure of CD59 of Chinese tree shrew. The additional objective of this study was to examine the distribution of negatively and positively charged amino acid over molecular modeled structure, distribution of secondary structural elements, hydrophobicity molecular surface analysis and electrostatic potential analysis with the assistance of several bioinformatical analytical tools. CD59 Amino acid sequence of Chinese tree shrew collected from the online database system of National Centre for Biotechnology Information. SignalP 4.0 online server was employed for detection of signal peptide instance within the protein sequence of CD59. Molecular model structure of CD59 protein was generated by the Iterative Threading ASSEmbly Refinement (I-TASSER) suite. The confirmation for three-dimensional structural model was evaluated by structure validation tools. Location of negatively and positively charged amino acid over molecular modeled structure, distribution of secondary structural elements, and hydrophobicity molecular surface analysis was performed with the help of Chimera tool. Electrostatic potential analysis was carried out with the adaptive Poisson-Boltzmann solver package. Subsequently validated model was used for the functionally critical amino acids and active site prediction. The functionally critical amino acids and ligand- binding site (LBS) of the proteins (modeled) was determined using the COACH program. Analysis of Ramachandran plot for Chinese tree shrew depicted that overall, 100% of the residues in homology model were observed in allowed and favored regions, sequentially leading to the validation of the standard of generated protein structural model. In case of CD59 of Chinese tree shrew, the total score of G-factor was found to be -0.66 that was generally larger than the acceptable value. This approach suggests the significance and acceptability of the modeled structure of CD59 of Chinese tree shrew. The molecular model data in cooperation to other relevant post model analysis data put forward molecular insight to protecting activity of CD59 protein molecule of Chinese tree shrew. In the present study, we have proposed the first molecular model structure of uncharted CD59 of Chinese tree shrew by significantly utilizing the comparative composite modeling approach. Therefore, the development of a structural model of the CD59 protein was carried out and analyzed further for deducing molecular enrichment technique. The collaborative effort of molecular model and other relevant data of post model analysis carry forward molecular understanding to protecting activity of CD59 functions towards better insight of features of this natural lead compound. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Hopf algebras of rooted forests, cocyles, and free Rota-Baxter algebras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tianjie; Gao, Xing; Guo, Li

2016-10-01

The Hopf algebra and the Rota-Baxter algebra are the two algebraic structures underlying the algebraic approach of Connes and Kreimer to renormalization of perturbative quantum field theory. In particular, the Hopf algebra of rooted trees serves as the "baby model" of Feynman graphs in their approach and can be characterized by certain universal properties involving a Hochschild 1-cocycle. Decorated rooted trees have also been applied to study Feynman graphs. We will continue the study of universal properties of various spaces of decorated rooted trees with such a 1-cocycle, leading to the concept of a cocycle Hopf algebra. We further apply the universal properties to equip a free Rota-Baxter algebra with the structure of a cocycle Hopf algebra.

Forest understory trees can be segmented accurately within sufficiently dense airborne laser scanning point clouds.

PubMed

Hamraz, Hamid; Contreras, Marco A; Zhang, Jun

2017-07-28

Airborne laser scanning (LiDAR) point clouds over large forested areas can be processed to segment individual trees and subsequently extract tree-level information. Existing segmentation procedures typically detect more than 90% of overstory trees, yet they barely detect 60% of understory trees because of the occlusion effect of higher canopy layers. Although understory trees provide limited financial value, they are an essential component of ecosystem functioning by offering habitat for numerous wildlife species and influencing stand development. Here we model the occlusion effect in terms of point density. We estimate the fractions of points representing different canopy layers (one overstory and multiple understory) and also pinpoint the required density for reasonable tree segmentation (where accuracy plateaus). We show that at a density of ~170 pt/m² understory trees can likely be segmented as accurately as overstory trees. Given the advancements of LiDAR sensor technology, point clouds will affordably reach this required density. Using modern computational approaches for big data, the denser point clouds can efficiently be processed to ultimately allow accurate remote quantification of forest resources. The methodology can also be adopted for other similar remote sensing or advanced imaging applications such as geological subsurface modelling or biomedical tissue analysis.

Investigating the performance of LiDAR-derived biomass information in hydromechanic slope stability modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmaltz, Elmar; Steger, Stefan; Bogaard, Thom; Van Beek, Rens; Glade, Thomas

2017-04-01

Hydromechanic slope stability models are often used to assess the landslide susceptibility of hillslopes. Some of these models are able to account for vegetation related effects when assessing slope stability. However, spatial information of required vegetation parameters (especially of woodland) that are defined by land cover type, tree species and stand density are mostly underrepresented compared to hydropedological and geomechanical parameters. The aim of this study is to assess how LiDAR-derived biomass information can help to distinguish distinct tree stand-immanent properties (e.g. stand density and diversity) and further improve the performance of hydromechanic slope stability models. We used spatial vegetation data produced from sophisticated algorithms that are able to separate single trees within a stand based on LiDAR point clouds and thus allow an extraordinary detailed determination of the aboveground biomass. Further, this information is used to estimate the species- and stand-related distribution of the subsurface biomass using an innovative approach to approximate root system architecture and development. The hydrological tree-soil interactions and their impact on the geotechnical stability of the soil mantle are then reproduced in the dynamic and spatially distributed slope stability model STARWARS/PROBSTAB. This study highlights first advances in the approximation of biomechanical reinforcement potential of tree root systems in tree stands. Based on our findings, we address the advantages and limitations of highly detailed biomass information in hydromechanic modelling and physically based slope failure prediction.

Measuring and modelling interception loss by an isolated olive tree in a traditional olive grove - pasture system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nóbrega, Cristina; Pereira, Fernando L.; Valente, Fernanda

2015-04-01

Water losses associated to the rainfall interception process by trees can be an important component of the local hydrologic balance and must be accounted for when implementing any sustainable water management programme. In many dry areas of the Mediterranean region where agro-forestry systems are common, those programmes are crucial to foster adequate water conservation measures. Recent studies have shown that the evaluation of interception loss in sparse forests or tree plantations should be made for individual trees, being the total value determined as the sum of the individual contributions. Following this approach, rainfall interception was measured and modelled over two years, in an isolated Olea europeaea L. tree, in a traditional low-density olive grove in Castelo Branco, central Portugal. Total interception loss over the experimental period was 243.5 mm, on a tree crown projected area basis, corresponding to 18.0% of gross rainfall (Pg). Modelling made for each rainfall event using the sparse version of the Gash model, slightly underestimated interception loss with a value of 240.5 mm, i.e., 17.8 % ofPg. Modelling quality, evaluated according to a number of criteria, was good, allowing the conclusion that the methodology used was adequate. Modelling was also made on a daily basis, i.e., assuming a single storm per rainday. In this case, interception loss was overestimated by 12%, mostly because 72% of all rainfall events lasted for more than a day.

Competition for light between individual trees lowers reference canopy stomatal conductance: Results from a model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loranty, Michael M.; Mackay, D. Scott; Ewers, Brent E.; Traver, Elizabeth; Kruger, Eric L.

2010-12-01

We have used an ecosystem model, TREES (Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator), to test the hypothesis that competition for light limits reference canopy stomatal conductance (GSref; conductance at 1 kPa vapor pressure deficit) for individual tree crowns. Sap flux (JS) data was collected at an aspen-dominated unmanaged early successional site, and at a sugar maple dominated midsuccessional site managed for timber production. Using a Monte Carlo approach, JS scaled canopy transpiration (EC) estimates were used to parameterize two versions of the model for each tree individually; a control model treated trees as isolated individuals, and a modified version incorporated the shading effects of neighboring individuals on incident radiation. Agreement between simulated and observed EC was better for maple than for aspen using the control model. Accounting for canopy heterogeneity using a three-dimensional canopy representation had minimal effects on estimates of GSref or model performance for individual maples. At the Aspen site the modified model resulted in improved EC estimates, particularly for trees with lower GSref and more shading by neighboring individuals. Our results imply a link between photosynthetic capacity, as mediated by competitive light environment, and GSref. We conclude that accounting for the effects of canopy heterogeneity on incident radiation improves modeled estimates of canopy carbon and water fluxes, especially for shade intolerant species. Furthermore our results imply a link between ecosystem structure and function that may be exploited to elucidate the impacts of forest structural heterogeneity on ecosystem fluxes of carbon and water via LiDAR remote sensing.

Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acevedo, Walter; Fallah, Bijan; Reich, Sebastian; Cubasch, Ulrich

2017-05-01

Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in the model. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.

Integration of climatic water deficit and fine-scale physiography in process-based modeling of forest landscape resilience to large-scale tree mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Weisberg, P.; Dilts, T.

2016-12-01

Climate warming can lead to large-scale drought-induced tree mortality events and greatly affect forest landscape resilience. Climatic water deficit (CWD) and its physiographic variations provide a key mechanism in driving landscape dynamics in response to climate change. Although CWD has been successfully applied in niche-based species distribution models, its application in process-based forest landscape models is still scarce. Here we present a framework incorporating fine-scale influence of terrain on ecohydrology in modeling forest landscape dynamics. We integrated CWD with a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate how tree species distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios across an elevation-aspect gradient in a semi-arid montane landscape of northeastern Nevada, USA. Our simulations indicated that drought-intolerant tree species such as quaking aspen could experience greatly reduced distributions in the more arid portions of their existing ranges due to water stress limitations under future climate warming scenarios. However, even at the most xeric portions of its range, aspen is likely to persist in certain environmental settings due to unique and often fine-scale combinations of resource availability, species interactions and disturbance regime. The modeling approach presented here allowed identification of these refugia. In addition, this approach helped quantify how the direction and magnitude of fire influences on species distribution would vary across topoclimatic gradients, as well as furthers our understanding on the role of environmental conditions, fire, and inter-specific competition in shaping potential responses of landscape resilience to climate change.

Identifiability of tree-child phylogenetic networks under a probabilistic recombination-mutation model of evolution.

PubMed

Francis, Andrew; Moulton, Vincent

2018-06-07

Phylogenetic networks are an extension of phylogenetic trees which are used to represent evolutionary histories in which reticulation events (such as recombination and hybridization) have occurred. A central question for such networks is that of identifiability, which essentially asks under what circumstances can we reliably identify the phylogenetic network that gave rise to the observed data? Recently, identifiability results have appeared for networks relative to a model of sequence evolution that generalizes the standard Markov models used for phylogenetic trees. However, these results are quite limited in terms of the complexity of the networks that are considered. In this paper, by introducing an alternative probabilistic model for evolution along a network that is based on some ground-breaking work by Thatte for pedigrees, we are able to obtain an identifiability result for a much larger class of phylogenetic networks (essentially the class of so-called tree-child networks). To prove our main theorem, we derive some new results for identifying tree-child networks combinatorially, and then adapt some techniques developed by Thatte for pedigrees to show that our combinatorial results imply identifiability in the probabilistic setting. We hope that the introduction of our new model for networks could lead to new approaches to reliably construct phylogenetic networks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The hydrological vulnerability of western North American boreal tree species based on ground-based observations of tree mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hember, R. A.; Kurz, W. A.; Coops, N. C.

2017-12-01

Several studies indicate that climate change has increased rates of tree mortality, adversely affecting timber supply and carbon storage in western North American boreal forests. Statistical models of tree mortality can play a complimentary role in detecting and diagnosing forest change. Yet, such models struggle to address real-world complexity, including expectations that hydrological vulnerability arises from both drought stress and excess-water stress, and that these effects vary by species, tree size, and competitive status. Here, we describe models that predict annual probability of tree mortality (Pm) of common boreal tree species based on tree height (H), biomass of larger trees (BLT), soil water content (W), reference evapotranspiration (E), and two-way interactions. We show that interactions among H and hydrological variables are consistently significant. Vulnerability to extreme droughts consistently increases as H approaches maximum observed values of each species, while some species additionally show increasing vulnerability at low H. Some species additionally show increasing vulnerability to low W under high BLT, or increasing drought vulnerability under low BLT. These results suggest that vulnerability of trees to increasingly severe droughts depends on the hydraulic efficiency, competitive status, and microclimate of individual trees. Static simulations of Pm across a 1-km grid (i.e., with time-independent inputs of H, BLT, and species composition) indicate complex spatial patterns in the time trends during 1965-2014 and a mean change in Pm of 42 %. Lastly, we discuss how the size-dependence of hydrological vulnerability, in concert with increasingly severe drought events, may shape future responses of stand-level biomass production to continued warming and increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the region.

The water balance components of Mediterranean pine trees on a steep mountain slope during two hydrologically contrasting years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliades, Marinos; Bruggeman, Adriana; Lubczynski, Maciek W.; Christou, Andreas; Camera, Corrado; Djuma, Hakan

2018-07-01

Pines in semi-arid mountain environments manage to survive and thrive despite the limited soil water, due to shallow soil depths, and overall water scarcity. This study aims to develop a method for computing soil evaporation, bedrock water uptake and transpiration from a natural, open forest, based on sap flow (Heat Ratio Method), soil moisture and meteorological observations. The water balance of individual trees was conceptualized with a geometric approach, using canopy projected areas and Voronoi (Thiesen) polygons. The canopy approach assumes that the tree's root area extent is equal to its canopy projected area, while the Voronoi approach assumes that the tree roots exploit the open area that is closer to the tree than to any other tree. The methodology was applied in an open Pinus brutia forest (68% canopy cover) in Cyprus, characterized by steep slopes and fractured bedrock, during two hydrologically contrasting years (2015 wet, 2016 dry). Sap flow sensors, soil moisture sensors, throughfall and stemflow gauges were installed on and around eight trees. Rainfall was 507 mm in 2015 and 359 mm in 2016. According to the canopy approach, the sum of tree transpiration and soil evaporation exceeded the throughfall in both years, which implies that the trees' bedrock water uptake exceeds the surface runoff and drainage losses. This indicated that trees extend their roots beyond the canopy-projected areas and the use of the Voronoi polygons captures this effect. According to the stand scale water balance, average throughfall during the two years was 81% of the rainfall. Transpiration was 61% of the rainfall in 2015, but only 32% in 2016. On the contrary, the soil evaporation fraction increased from 26% in 2015 to 35% in the dry year of 2016. The contribution of bedrock water to tree transpiration was 77% of rainfall in 2015 and 66% in 2016. During the summer months, trees relied 100% on the uptake of water from the fractured bedrock to cover their transpiration needs. Average monthly transpiration areas ranged between 0.1 mm d-1 in October 2016 and 1.7 mm d-1 in April 2015. This study shows that bedrock uptake could be an essential water balance component of semi-arid, mountainous pine forests and should be accounted for in hydrologic models.

The Impact of the Tree Prior on Molecular Dating of Data Sets Containing a Mixture of Inter- and Intraspecies Sampling.

PubMed

Ritchie, Andrew M; Lo, Nathan; Ho, Simon Y W

2017-05-01

In Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of genetic data, prior probability distributions need to be specified for the model parameters, including the tree. When Bayesian methods are used for molecular dating, available tree priors include those designed for species-level data, such as the pure-birth and birth-death priors, and coalescent-based priors designed for population-level data. However, molecular dating methods are frequently applied to data sets that include multiple individuals across multiple species. Such data sets violate the assumptions of both the speciation and coalescent-based tree priors, making it unclear which should be chosen and whether this choice can affect the estimation of node times. To investigate this problem, we used a simulation approach to produce data sets with different proportions of within- and between-species sampling under the multispecies coalescent model. These data sets were then analyzed under pure-birth, birth-death, constant-size coalescent, and skyline coalescent tree priors. We also explored the ability of Bayesian model testing to select the best-performing priors. We confirmed the applicability of our results to empirical data sets from cetaceans, phocids, and coregonid whitefish. Estimates of node times were generally robust to the choice of tree prior, but some combinations of tree priors and sampling schemes led to large differences in the age estimates. In particular, the pure-birth tree prior frequently led to inaccurate estimates for data sets containing a mixture of inter- and intraspecific sampling, whereas the birth-death and skyline coalescent priors produced stable results across all scenarios. Model testing provided an adequate means of rejecting inappropriate tree priors. Our results suggest that tree priors do not strongly affect Bayesian molecular dating results in most cases, even when severely misspecified. However, the choice of tree prior can be significant for the accuracy of dating results in the case of data sets with mixed inter- and intraspecies sampling. [Bayesian phylogenetic methods; model testing; molecular dating; node time; tree prior.]. © The authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permission@oup.com.

Pathway-based predictive approaches for non-animal assessment of acute inhalation toxicity.

PubMed

Clippinger, Amy J; Allen, David; Behrsing, Holger; BéruBé, Kelly A; Bolger, Michael B; Casey, Warren; DeLorme, Michael; Gaça, Marianna; Gehen, Sean C; Glover, Kyle; Hayden, Patrick; Hinderliter, Paul; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Iskandar, Anita; Keyser, Brian; Luettich, Karsta; Ma-Hock, Lan; Maione, Anna G; Makena, Patrudu; Melbourne, Jodie; Milchak, Lawrence; Ng, Sheung P; Paini, Alicia; Page, Kathryn; Patlewicz, Grace; Prieto, Pilar; Raabe, Hans; Reinke, Emily N; Roper, Clive; Rose, Jane; Sharma, Monita; Spoo, Wayne; Thorne, Peter S; Wilson, Daniel M; Jarabek, Annie M

2018-06-20

New approaches are needed to assess the effects of inhaled substances on human health. These approaches will be based on mechanisms of toxicity, an understanding of dosimetry, and the use of in silico modeling and in vitro test methods. In order to accelerate wider implementation of such approaches, development of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) can help identify and address gaps in our understanding of relevant parameters for model input and mechanisms, and optimize non-animal approaches that can be used to investigate key events of toxicity. This paper describes the AOPs and the toolbox of in vitro and in silico models that can be used to assess the key events leading to toxicity following inhalation exposure. Because the optimal testing strategy will vary depending on the substance of interest, here we present a decision tree approach to identify an appropriate non-animal integrated testing strategy that incorporates consideration of a substance's physicochemical properties, relevant mechanisms of toxicity, and available in silico models and in vitro test methods. This decision tree can facilitate standardization of the testing approaches. Case study examples are presented to provide a basis for proof-of-concept testing to illustrate the utility of non-animal approaches to inform hazard identification and risk assessment of humans exposed to inhaled substances. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Detection and Counting of Orchard Trees from Vhr Images Using a Geometrical-Optical Model and Marked Template Matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maillard, Philippe; Gomes, Marília F.

2016-06-01

This article presents an original algorithm created to detect and count trees in orchards using very high resolution images. The algorithm is based on an adaptation of the "template matching" image processing approach, in which the template is based on a "geometricaloptical" model created from a series of parameters, such as illumination angles, maximum and ambient radiance, and tree size specifications. The algorithm is tested on four images from different regions of the world and different crop types. These images all have < 1 meter spatial resolution and were downloaded from the GoogleEarth application. Results show that the algorithm is very efficient at detecting and counting trees as long as their spectral and spatial characteristics are relatively constant. For walnut, mango and orange trees, the overall accuracy was clearly above 90%. However, the overall success rate for apple trees fell under 75%. It appears that the openness of the apple tree crown is most probably responsible for this poorer result. The algorithm is fully explained with a step-by-step description. At this stage, the algorithm still requires quite a bit of user interaction. The automatic determination of most of the required parameters is under development.

A classification tree based modeling approach for segment related crashes on multilane highways.

PubMed

Pande, Anurag; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Das, Abhishek

2010-10-01

This study presents a classification tree based alternative to crash frequency analysis for analyzing crashes on mid-block segments of multilane arterials. The traditional approach of modeling counts of crashes that occur over a period of time works well for intersection crashes where each intersection itself provides a well-defined unit over which to aggregate the crash data. However, in the case of mid-block segments the crash frequency based approach requires segmentation of the arterial corridor into segments of arbitrary lengths. In this study we have used random samples of time, day of week, and location (i.e., milepost) combinations and compared them with the sample of crashes from the same arterial corridor. For crash and non-crash cases, geometric design/roadside and traffic characteristics were derived based on their milepost locations. The variables used in the analysis are non-event specific and therefore more relevant for roadway safety feature improvement programs. First classification tree model is a model comparing all crashes with the non-crash data and then four groups of crashes (rear-end, lane-change related, pedestrian, and single-vehicle/off-road crashes) are separately compared to the non-crash cases. The classification tree models provide a list of significant variables as well as a measure to classify crash from non-crash cases. ADT along with time of day/day of week are significantly related to all crash types with different groups of crashes being more likely to occur at different times. From the classification performance of different models it was apparent that using non-event specific information may not be suitable for single vehicle/off-road crashes. The study provides the safety analysis community an additional tool to assess safety without having to aggregate the corridor crash data over arbitrary segment lengths. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Novel DEM Approach to Simulate Block Propagation on Forested Slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toe, David; Bourrier, Franck; Dorren, Luuk; Berger, Frédéric

2018-03-01

In order to model rockfall on forested slopes, we developed a trajectory rockfall model based on the discrete element method (DEM). This model is able to take the complex mechanical processes at work during an impact into account (large deformations, complex contact conditions) and can explicitly simulate block/soil, block/tree contacts as well as contacts between neighbouring trees. In this paper, we describe the DEM model developed and we use it to assess the protective effect of different types of forest. In addition, we compared it with a more classical rockfall simulation model. The results highlight that forests can significantly reduce rockfall hazard and that the spatial structure of coppice forests has to be taken into account in rockfall simulations in order to avoid overestimating the protective role of these forest structures against rockfall hazard. In addition, the protective role of the forests is mainly influenced by the basal area. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the DEM model were compared with classical rockfall modelling approaches.

MODELING TREE LEVEL PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

An overview of three main types of simulation approach (explanatory, abstraction, and estimation) is presented, along with a discussion of their capabilities limitations, and the steps required for their validation. A process model being developed through the Forest Response Prog...

Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.

2002-12-01

The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, G.; Frank, D.; Buentgen, U.; Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Pfister, C.; Esper, J.

2009-09-01

In this project three different summer temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies across the European Alpine region were compiled and analyzed to make a calendar of extreme warm and cold summers. We identified 100 extreme events during the past millennium from the tree ring data, and 44 extreme years during the 1550-2003 period based upon tree-ring, documentary and instrumental evidence. Comparisons with long instrumental series and documentary evidence verify the tree-ring extremes and indicate the possibility to use this dataset towards a better understanding of the characteristics prior to the instrumental period. Potential links between the occurrence of extreme events over Alps and anomalous large-scale patterns were explored and indicate that the average pattern of the 20 warmest summers (over the 1700-2002 period) describes maximum positive anomalies over Central Europe, whereas the average pattern of the 20 coldest summers shows maximum negative anomalies over Western Europe. Challenges with the present approach included determining an appropriate classification scheme for extreme events and the development of a methodology able to identify and characterize the occurrence of extreme episodes back in time. As a future step, our approach will be extended to help verify the sparse documentary data from the beginning of the past millennium and will be used in conjunction with climate models to assess model capabilities in reproducing characteristics of temperature extremes.

A novel transferable individual tree crown delineation model based on Fishing Net Dragging and boundary classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao; Im, Jungho; Quackenbush, Lindi J.

2015-12-01

This study provides a novel approach to individual tree crown delineation (ITCD) using airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in dense natural forests using two main steps: crown boundary refinement based on a proposed Fishing Net Dragging (FiND) method, and segment merging based on boundary classification. FiND starts with approximate tree crown boundaries derived using a traditional watershed method with Gaussian filtering and refines these boundaries using an algorithm that mimics how a fisherman drags a fishing net. Random forest machine learning is then used to classify boundary segments into two classes: boundaries between trees and boundaries between branches that belong to a single tree. Three groups of LiDAR-derived features-two from the pseudo waveform generated along with crown boundaries and one from a canopy height model (CHM)-were used in the classification. The proposed ITCD approach was tested using LiDAR data collected over a mountainous region in the Adirondack Park, NY, USA. Overall accuracy of boundary classification was 82.4%. Features derived from the CHM were generally more important in the classification than the features extracted from the pseudo waveform. A comprehensive accuracy assessment scheme for ITCD was also introduced by considering both area of crown overlap and crown centroids. Accuracy assessment using this new scheme shows the proposed ITCD achieved 74% and 78% as overall accuracy, respectively, for deciduous and mixed forest.

Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

PubMed

Scotson, Lorraine; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Ngoprasert, Dusit; Wong, Wai-Ming; Fieberg, John

2017-01-01

Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei) were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%). Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement) to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that all assumptions be clearly stated.

Tree-based modeling of complex interactions of phosphorus loadings and environmental factors.

PubMed

Grunwald, S; Daroub, S H; Lang, T A; Diaz, O A

2009-06-01

Phosphorus (P) enrichment has been observed in the historic oligotrophic Greater Everglades in Florida mainly due to P influx from upstream, agriculturally dominated, low relief drainage basins of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA). Our specific objectives were to: (1) investigate relationships between various environmental factors and P loads in 10 farm basins within the EAA, (2) identify those environmental factors that impart major effects on P loads using three different tree-based modeling approaches, and (3) evaluate predictive models to assess P loads. We assembled thirteen environmental variable sets for all 10 sub-basins characterizing water level management, cropping practices, soils, hydrology, and farm-specific properties. Drainage flow and P concentrations were measured at each sub-basin outlet from 1992-2002 and aggregated to derive monthly P loads. We used three different tree-based models including single regression trees (ST), committee trees in Bagging (CTb) and ARCing (CTa) modes and ten-fold cross-validation to test prediction performances. The monthly P loads (MPL) during the monitoring period showed a maximum of 2528 kg (mean: 103 kg) and maximum monthly unit area P loads (UAL) of 4.88 kg P ha(-1) (mean: 0.16 kg P ha(-1)). Our results suggest that hydrologic/water management properties are the major controlling variables to predict MPL and UAL in the EAA. Tree-based modeling was successful in identifying relationships between P loads and environmental predictor variables on 10 farms in the EAA indicated by high R(2) (>0.80) and low prediction errors. Committee trees in ARCing mode generated the best performing models to predict P loads and P loads per unit area. Tree-based models had the ability to analyze complex, non-linear relationships between P loads and multiple variables describing hydrologic/water management, cropping practices, soil and farm-specific properties within the EAA.

Modelling effects of tree population dynamics, tree throw and pit-mound formation/diffusion on microtopography over time in different forest settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.; Gallaway, J.; Chaikina, O.

2011-12-01

Herein we conduct a followup investigation to an earlier research project in which we developed a numerical model of tree population dynamics, tree throw, and sediment transport associated with the formation of pit-mound features for Hawk Creek watershed, Canadian Rockies (Gallaway et al., 2009). We extend this earlier work by exploring the most appropriate transport relations to simulate the diffusion over time of newly-formed pit-pound features due to tree throw. We combine our earlier model with a landscape development model that can incorporate these diffusive transport relations. Using these combined models, changes in hillslope microtopography over time associated with the formation of pit-mound features and their decay will be investigated. The following ideas have motivated this particular study: (i) Rates of pit-mound degradation remain a source of almost complete speculation, as there is almost no long-term information on process rates. Therefore, we will attempt to tackle the issue of pit-mound degradation in a methodical way that can guide future field studies; (ii) The degree of visible pit-mound topography at any point in time on the landscape is a joint function of the rate of formation of new pit-mound features due to tree death/topple and their magnitude vs. the rate of decay of pit-mound features. An example of one interesting observation that arises is the following: it appears that pit-mound topography is often more pronounced in some eastern North American forests vs. field sites along the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies. Why is this the case? Our investigation begins by considering whether pit-mound decay might occur by linear or nonlinear diffusion. What differences might arise depending on which diffusive approach is adopted? What is the magnitude of transport rates associated with these possible forms of transport relations? We explore linear and nonlinear diffusion at varying rates and for different sizes of pit-mound pairs using a numerical modelling approach. Model results suggest that longevity of pit-mound features is dependent on: (i) magnitude/dimensions of initial pit-mound features for forests in different regions; (ii) defining appropriate pit-mound diffusion rates for these different forests (unfortunately, almost no appropriate field observations exist for calibration of these transport relations). In the next stage of this research, we will combine our earlier model of forest disturbance/tree population dynamics, tree throw and pit-mound formation with the numerical model LandMod (Martin, 1998, 2000, 2007); the latter will be used to simulate pit-mound diffusion over time. In this way, we can observe changes in hillslope microtopographic signatures over time that are found in different forest settings.

A New Method to Compare Statistical Tree Growth Curves: The PL-GMANOVA Model and Its Application with Dendrochronological Data

PubMed Central

Ricker, Martin; Peña Ramírez, Víctor M.; von Rosen, Dietrich

2014-01-01

Growth curves are monotonically increasing functions that measure repeatedly the same subjects over time. The classical growth curve model in the statistical literature is the Generalized Multivariate Analysis of Variance (GMANOVA) model. In order to model the tree trunk radius (r) over time (t) of trees on different sites, GMANOVA is combined here with the adapted PL regression model Q = A·T+E, where for and for , A =  initial relative growth to be estimated, , and E is an error term for each tree and time point. Furthermore, Ei[–b·r]  = , , with TPR being the turning point radius in a sigmoid curve, and at is an estimated calibrating time-radius point. Advantages of the approach are that growth rates can be compared among growth curves with different turning point radiuses and different starting points, hidden outliers are easily detectable, the method is statistically robust, and heteroscedasticity of the residuals among time points is allowed. The model was implemented with dendrochronological data of 235 Pinus montezumae trees on ten Mexican volcano sites to calculate comparison intervals for the estimated initial relative growth . One site (at the Popocatépetl volcano) stood out, with being 3.9 times the value of the site with the slowest-growing trees. Calculating variance components for the initial relative growth, 34% of the growth variation was found among sites, 31% among trees, and 35% over time. Without the Popocatépetl site, the numbers changed to 7%, 42%, and 51%. Further explanation of differences in growth would need to focus on factors that vary within sites and over time. PMID:25402427

3D Tree Dimensionality Assessment Using Photogrammetry and Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Detailed, precise, three-dimensional (3D) representations of individual trees are a prerequisite for an accurate assessment of tree competition, growth, and morphological plasticity. Until recently, our ability to measure the dimensionality, spatial arrangement, shape of trees, and shape of tree components with precision has been constrained by technological and logistical limitations and cost. Traditional methods of forest biometrics provide only partial measurements and are labor intensive. Active remote technologies such as LiDAR operated from airborne platforms provide only partial crown reconstructions. The use of terrestrial LiDAR is laborious, has portability limitations and high cost. In this work we capitalized on recent improvements in the capabilities and availability of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), light and inexpensive cameras, and developed an affordable method for obtaining precise and comprehensive 3D models of trees and small groups of trees. The method employs slow-moving UAVs that acquire images along predefined trajectories near and around targeted trees, and computer vision-based approaches that process the images to obtain detailed tree reconstructions. After we confirmed the potential of the methodology via simulation we evaluated several UAV platforms, strategies for image acquisition, and image processing algorithms. We present an original, step-by-step workflow which utilizes open source programs and original software. We anticipate that future development and applications of our method will improve our understanding of forest self-organization emerging from the competition among trees, and will lead to a refined generation of individual-tree-based forest models. PMID:26393926

3D Tree Dimensionality Assessment Using Photogrammetry and Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

PubMed

Gatziolis, Demetrios; Lienard, Jean F; Vogs, Andre; Strigul, Nikolay S

2015-01-01

Detailed, precise, three-dimensional (3D) representations of individual trees are a prerequisite for an accurate assessment of tree competition, growth, and morphological plasticity. Until recently, our ability to measure the dimensionality, spatial arrangement, shape of trees, and shape of tree components with precision has been constrained by technological and logistical limitations and cost. Traditional methods of forest biometrics provide only partial measurements and are labor intensive. Active remote technologies such as LiDAR operated from airborne platforms provide only partial crown reconstructions. The use of terrestrial LiDAR is laborious, has portability limitations and high cost. In this work we capitalized on recent improvements in the capabilities and availability of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), light and inexpensive cameras, and developed an affordable method for obtaining precise and comprehensive 3D models of trees and small groups of trees. The method employs slow-moving UAVs that acquire images along predefined trajectories near and around targeted trees, and computer vision-based approaches that process the images to obtain detailed tree reconstructions. After we confirmed the potential of the methodology via simulation we evaluated several UAV platforms, strategies for image acquisition, and image processing algorithms. We present an original, step-by-step workflow which utilizes open source programs and original software. We anticipate that future development and applications of our method will improve our understanding of forest self-organization emerging from the competition among trees, and will lead to a refined generation of individual-tree-based forest models.

Modeling the Spatial Distribution and Fruiting Pattern of a Key Tree Species in a Neotropical Forest: Methodology and Potential Applications

PubMed Central

Scarpino, Samuel V.; Jansen, Patrick A.; Garzon-Lopez, Carol X.; Winkelhagen, Annemarie J. S.; Bohlman, Stephanie A.; Walsh, Peter D.

2010-01-01

Background The movement patterns of wild animals depend crucially on the spatial and temporal availability of resources in their habitat. To date, most attempts to model this relationship were forced to rely on simplified assumptions about the spatiotemporal distribution of food resources. Here we demonstrate how advances in statistics permit the combination of sparse ground sampling with remote sensing imagery to generate biological relevant, spatially and temporally explicit distributions of food resources. We illustrate our procedure by creating a detailed simulation model of fruit production patterns for Dipteryx oleifera, a keystone tree species, on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Methodology and Principal Findings Aerial photographs providing GPS positions for large, canopy trees, the complete census of a 50-ha and 25-ha area, diameter at breast height data from haphazardly sampled trees and long-term phenology data from six trees were used to fit 1) a point process model of tree spatial distribution and 2) a generalized linear mixed-effect model of temporal variation of fruit production. The fitted parameters from these models are then used to create a stochastic simulation model which incorporates spatio-temporal variations of D. oleifera fruit availability on BCI. Conclusions and Significance We present a framework that can provide a statistical characterization of the habitat that can be included in agent-based models of animal movements. When environmental heterogeneity cannot be exhaustively mapped, this approach can be a powerful alternative. The results of our model on the spatio-temporal variation in D. oleifera fruit availability will be used to understand behavioral and movement patterns of several species on BCI. PMID:21124927

Modelling individual tree height to crown base of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

PubMed Central

Jansa, Václav

2017-01-01

Height to crown base (HCB) of a tree is an important variable often included as a predictor in various forest models that serve as the fundamental tools for decision-making in forestry. We developed spatially explicit and spatially inexplicit mixed-effects HCB models using measurements from a total 19,404 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) on the permanent sample plots that are located across the Czech Republic. Variables describing site quality, stand density or competition, and species mixing effects were included into the HCB model with use of dominant height (HDOM), basal area of trees larger in diameters than a subject tree (BAL- spatially inexplicit measure) or Hegyi’s competition index (HCI—spatially explicit measure), and basal area proportion of a species of interest (BAPOR), respectively. The parameters describing sample plot-level random effects were included into the HCB model by applying the mixed-effects modelling approach. Among several functional forms evaluated, the logistic function was found most suited to our data. The HCB model for Norway spruce was tested against the data originated from different inventory designs, but model for European beech was tested using partitioned dataset (a part of the main dataset). The variance heteroscedasticity in the residuals was substantially reduced through inclusion of a power variance function into the HCB model. The results showed that spatially explicit model described significantly a larger part of the HCB variations [R2adj = 0.86 (spruce), 0.85 (beech)] than its spatially inexplicit counterpart [R2adj = 0.84 (spruce), 0.83 (beech)]. The HCB increased with increasing competitive interactions described by tree-centered competition measure: BAL or HCI, and species mixing effects described by BAPOR. A test of the mixed-effects HCB model with the random effects estimated using at least four trees per sample plot in the validation data confirmed that the model was precise enough for the prediction of HCB for a range of site quality, tree size, stand density, and stand structure. We therefore recommend measuring of HCB on four randomly selected trees of a species of interest on each sample plot for localizing the mixed-effects model and predicting HCB of the remaining trees on the plot. Growth simulations can be made from the data that lack the values for either crown ratio or HCB using the HCB models. PMID:29049391

Accuracy Assessment of Crown Delineation Methods for the Individual Trees Using LIDAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, K. T.; Lin, C.; Lin, Y. C.; Liu, J. K.

2016-06-01

Forest canopy density and height are used as variables in a number of environmental applications, including the estimation of biomass, forest extent and condition, and biodiversity. The airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is very useful to estimate forest canopy parameters according to the generated canopy height models (CHMs). The purpose of this work is to introduce an algorithm to delineate crown parameters, e.g. tree height and crown radii based on the generated rasterized CHMs. And accuracy assessment for the extraction of volumetric parameters of a single tree is also performed via manual measurement using corresponding aerial photo pairs. A LiDAR dataset of a golf course acquired by Leica ALS70-HP is used in this study. Two algorithms, i.e. a traditional one with the subtraction of a digital elevation model (DEM) from a digital surface model (DSM), and a pit-free approach are conducted to generate the CHMs firstly. Then two algorithms, a multilevel morphological active-contour (MMAC) and a variable window filter (VWF), are implemented and used in this study for individual tree delineation. Finally, experimental results of two automatic estimation methods for individual trees can be evaluated with manually measured stand-level parameters, i.e. tree height and crown diameter. The resulting CHM generated by a simple subtraction is full of empty pixels (called "pits") that will give vital impact on subsequent analysis for individual tree delineation. The experimental results indicated that if more individual trees can be extracted, tree crown shape will became more completely in the CHM data after the pit-free process.

Using Decision Trees for Estimating Mode Choice of Trips in Buca-Izmir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oral, L. O.; Tecim, V.

2013-05-01

Decision makers develop transportation plans and models for providing sustainable transport systems in urban areas. Mode Choice is one of the stages in transportation modelling. Data mining techniques can discover factors affecting the mode choice. These techniques can be applied with knowledge process approach. In this study a data mining process model is applied to determine the factors affecting the mode choice with decision trees techniques by considering individual trip behaviours from household survey data collected within Izmir Transportation Master Plan. From this perspective transport mode choice problem is solved on a case in district of Buca-Izmir, Turkey with CRISP-DM knowledge process model.

Biodiversity conservation in Swedish forests: ways forward for a 30-year-old multi-scaled approach.

PubMed

Gustafsson, Lena; Perhans, Karin

2010-12-01

A multi-scaled model for biodiversity conservation in forests was introduced in Sweden 30 years ago, which makes it a pioneer example of an integrated ecosystem approach. Trees are set aside for biodiversity purposes at multiple scale levels varying from individual trees to areas of thousands of hectares, with landowner responsibility at the lowest level and with increasing state involvement at higher levels. Ecological theory supports the multi-scaled approach, and retention efforts at every harvest occasion stimulate landowners' interest in conservation. We argue that the model has large advantages but that in a future with intensified forestry and global warming, development based on more progressive thinking is necessary to maintain and increase biodiversity. Suggestions for the future include joint planning for several forest owners, consideration of cost-effectiveness, accepting opportunistic work models, adjusting retention levels to stand and landscape composition, introduction of temporary reserves, creation of "receiver habitats" for species escaping climate change, and protection of young forests.

Xylem anisotropy and water transport--a model for the double sawcut experiment

Treesearch

Paul J. Schulte; David G. Costa

2010-01-01

Early experiments with overlapping cuts to the stems of trees demonstrated that lateral flow within the stem must be possible to allow such trees to maintain water flow to their leaves. We present a mathematical approach to considering lateral flow in stems by treating the xylem as an anisotropic medium for flow and develop an expression of its conductivity in the form...

Exploiting Non-sequence Data in Dynamic Model Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

For our experiments here and in Section 3.5, we implement the proposed algorithms in MATLAB and use the maximum directed spanning tree solver...embarrassingly parallelizable, whereas PM’s maximum directed spanning tree procedure is harder to parallelize. In this experiment, our MATLAB ...some estimation problems, this approach is able to give unique and consistent estimates while the maximum- likelihood method gets entangled in

A k-nearest neighbor approach for estimation of single-tree biomass

Treesearch

Lutz Fehrmann; Christoph Kleinn

2007-01-01

Allometric biomass models are typically site and species specific. They are mostly based on a low number of independent variables such as diameter at breast height and tree height. Because of relatively small datasets, their validity is limited to the set of conditions of the study, such as site conditions and diameter range. One challenge in the context of the current...

Climate change at upper treeline: How do trees on the edge react to increasing temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof

2017-04-01

Treeline ecotones are thought to be particularly sensitive to climate warming, and an alteration of their growth conditions may have important implications for the ecosystem services they supply in mountain regions. We use a novel approach to quantify effects of a changing climate on tree growth, using case studies in the European Alps. We compiled tree-ring data from almost 600 trees of four species at treeline in three climate regions of Switzerland. Temperature loggers installed along transects provided data for a precise interpolation of temperatures experienced by the sampled trees. To assess the influence of temperature on annual growth, we used linear mixed-effects models, allowing us to quantify effect sizes and to account for between-tree growth variability. After removing biological growth trends, we isolated temporal trends of ring-width indices. Furthermore, we fitted non-linear regression models to radial growth rates of individual years with temperature and tree age as predicting covariates for a fine-scale investigation of the temperature dependency of tree growth. For all species, climate-growth linear mixed-effects models indicated strong positive responses of ring-width indices to temperature in early summer and previous year's autumn, featuring considerable between-tree variability. All species showed positive ring-width index trends at treeline but different interactions with elevation: Larix decidua exhibited a declining ring-width index trend with decreasing elevation, whereas Picea abies, Pinus cembra and Pinus mugo showed increasing and/or stable trends. Not only reflected our findings the effects of ameliorated growth conditions, they might have also revealed suspected negative and positive feedbacks of climate change on growth, and increased the knowledge about the functional form and parameterization of the temperature dependency of tree growth.

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

A spatially explicit approach to the study of socio-demographic inequality in the spatial distribution of trees across Boston neighborhoods.

PubMed

Duncan, Dustin T; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kum, Susan; Aldstadt, Jared; Piras, Gianfranco; Matthews, Stephen A; Arbia, Giuseppe; Castro, Marcia C; White, Kellee; Williams, David R

2014-04-01

The racial/ethnic and income composition of neighborhoods often influences local amenities, including the potential spatial distribution of trees, which are important for population health and community wellbeing, particularly in urban areas. This ecological study used spatial analytical methods to assess the relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. minority racial/ethnic composition and poverty) and tree density at the census tact level in Boston, Massachusetts (US). We examined spatial autocorrelation with the Global Moran's I for all study variables and in the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression residuals as well as computed Spearman correlations non-adjusted and adjusted for spatial autocorrelation between socio-demographic characteristics and tree density. Next, we fit traditional regressions (i.e. OLS regression models) and spatial regressions (i.e. spatial simultaneous autoregressive models), as appropriate. We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation for all neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (Global Moran's I range from 0.24 to 0.86, all P =0.001), for tree density (Global Moran's I =0.452, P =0.001), and in the OLS regression residuals (Global Moran's I range from 0.32 to 0.38, all P <0.001). Therefore, we fit the spatial simultaneous autoregressive models. There was a negative correlation between neighborhood percent non-Hispanic Black and tree density (r S =-0.19; conventional P -value=0.016; spatially adjusted P -value=0.299) as well as a negative correlation between predominantly non-Hispanic Black (over 60% Black) neighborhoods and tree density (r S =-0.18; conventional P -value=0.019; spatially adjusted P -value=0.180). While the conventional OLS regression model found a marginally significant inverse relationship between Black neighborhoods and tree density, we found no statistically significant relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic composition and tree density in the spatial regression models. Methodologically, our study suggests the need to take into account spatial autocorrelation as findings/conclusions can change when the spatial autocorrelation is ignored. Substantively, our findings suggest no need for policy intervention vis-à-vis trees in Boston, though we hasten to add that replication studies, and more nuanced data on tree quality, age and diversity are needed.

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

PubMed

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A scalable approach for tree segmentation within small-footprint airborne LiDAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamraz, Hamid; Contreras, Marco A.; Zhang, Jun

2017-05-01

This paper presents a distributed approach that scales up to segment tree crowns within a LiDAR point cloud representing an arbitrarily large forested area. The approach uses a single-processor tree segmentation algorithm as a building block in order to process the data delivered in the shape of tiles in parallel. The distributed processing is performed in a master-slave manner, in which the master maintains the global map of the tiles and coordinates the slaves that segment tree crowns within and across the boundaries of the tiles. A minimal bias was introduced to the number of detected trees because of trees lying across the tile boundaries, which was quantified and adjusted for. Theoretical and experimental analyses of the runtime of the approach revealed a near linear speedup. The estimated number of trees categorized by crown class and the associated error margins as well as the height distribution of the detected trees aligned well with field estimations, verifying that the distributed approach works correctly. The approach enables providing information of individual tree locations and point cloud segments for a forest-level area in a timely manner, which can be used to create detailed remotely sensed forest inventories. Although the approach was presented for tree segmentation within LiDAR point clouds, the idea can also be generalized to scale up processing other big spatial datasets.

Market-based approaches to tree valuation

Treesearch

Geoffrey H. Donovan; David T. Butry

2008-01-01

A recent four-part series in Arborist News outlined different appraisal processes used to value urban trees. The final article in the series described the three generally accepted approaches to tree valuation: the sales comparison approach, the cost approach, and the income capitalization approach. The author, D. Logan Nelson, noted that the sales comparison approach...

Proposed Hydrodynamic Model Increases the Ability of Land-Surface Models to Capture Intra-Daily Dynamics of Transpiration and Canopy Structure Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matheny, A. M.; Bohrer, G.; Mirfenderesgi, G.; Schafer, K. V.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2014-12-01

Hydraulic limitations are known to control transpiration in forest ecosystems when the soil is drying or when the vapor pressure deficit between the air and stomata is very large, but they can also impact stomatal apertures under conditions of adequate soil moisture and lower evaporative demand. We use the NACP dataset of latent heat flux measurements and model observations for multiple sites and models to demonstrate models' difficulties in capturing intra-daily hysteresis. We hypothesize that this is a result of un-resolved afternoon stomata closure due to hydrodynamic stresses. The current formulations for stomatal conductance and the empirical coupling between stomatal conductance and soil moisture used by these models does not resolve the hydrodynamic process of water movement from the soil to the leaves. This approach does not take advantage of advances in our understanding of water flow and storage in the trees, or of tree and canopy structure. A more thorough representation of the tree-hydrodynamic processes could potentially remedy this significant source of model error. In a forest plot at the University of Michigan Biological Station, we use measurements of sap flux and leaf water potential to demonstrate that trees of similar type - late successional deciduous trees - have very different hydrodynamic strategies that lead to differences in their temporal patterns of stomatal conductance and thus hysteretic cycles of transpiration. These differences will lead to large differences in conductance and water use based on the species composition of the forest. We also demonstrate that the size and shape of the tree branching system leads to differences in extent of hydrodynamic stress, which may change the forest respiration patterns as the forest grows and ages. We propose a framework to resolve tree hydrodynamics in global and regional models based on the Finite-Elements Tree-Crown Hydrodynamics model (FETCH) -a hydrodynamic model that can resolve the fast dynamics of stomatal conductance. FETCH simulates water flow through a tree as a system of porous media conduits and calculates the amount of hydraulic limitation to stomatal conductance, given the atmospheric and biological variables from the global model, and could replace the current empirical formulation for stomatal adjustment based on soil moisture.

Stand-structural effects on Heterobasidion abietinum-related mortality following drought events in Abies pinsapo.

PubMed

Linares, Juan Carlos; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Bowker, Matthew A; Ochoa, Victoria; Carreira, José Antonio

2010-12-01

Climate change may affect tree-pathogen interactions. This possibility has important implications for drought-prone forests, where stand dynamics and disease pathogenicity are especially sensitive to climatic stress. In addition, stand structural attributes including density-dependent tree-to-tree competition may modulate the stands' resistance to drought events and pathogen outbreaks. To assess the effects of stand structure on root-rot-related mortality after severe droughts, we focused on Heterobasidion abietinum mortality in relict Spanish stands of Abies pinsapo, a drought-sensitive fir. We compared stand attributes and tree spatial patterns in three plots with H. abietinum root-rot disease and three plots without root-rot. Point-pattern analyses were used to investigate the scale and extent of mortality patterns and to test hypotheses related to the spread of the disease. Dendrochronology was used to date the year of death and to assess the association between droughts and growth decline. We applied a structural equation modelling approach to test if tree mortality occurs more rapidly than predicted by a simple distance model when trees are subjected to high tree-to-tree competition and following drought events. Contrary to expectations of drought mortality, the effect of precipitation on the year of death was strong and negative, indicating that a period of high precipitation induced an earlier tree death. Competition intensity, related to the size and density of neighbour trees, also induced an earlier tree death. The effect of distance to the disease focus was negligible except in combination with intensive competition. Our results indicate that infected trees have decreased ability to withstand drought stress, and demonstrate that tree-to-tree competition and fungal infection act as predisposing factors of forest decline and mortality.

Integrating LIDAR and forest inventories to fill the trees outside forests data gap.

PubMed

Johnson, Kristofer D; Birdsey, Richard; Cole, Jason; Swatantran, Anu; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath; Dubayah, Ralph; Lister, Andrew

2015-10-01

Forest inventories are commonly used to estimate total tree biomass of forest land even though they are not traditionally designed to measure biomass of trees outside forests (TOF). The consequence may be an inaccurate representation of all of the aboveground biomass, which propagates error to the outputs of spatial and process models that rely on the inventory data. An ideal approach to fill this data gap would be to integrate TOF measurements within a traditional forest inventory for a parsimonious estimate of total tree biomass. In this study, Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data were used to predict biomass of TOF in all "nonforest" Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots in the state of Maryland. To validate the LIDAR-based biomass predictions, a field crew was sent to measure TOF on nonforest plots in three Maryland counties, revealing close agreement at both the plot and county scales between the two estimates. Total tree biomass in Maryland increased by 25.5 Tg, or 15.6%, when biomass of TOF were included. In two counties (Carroll and Howard), there was a 47% increase. In contrast, counties located further away from the interstate highway corridor showed only a modest increase in biomass when TOF were added because nonforest conditions were less common in those areas. The advantage of this approach for estimating biomass of TOF is that it is compatible with, and explicitly separates TOF biomass from, forest biomass already measured by FIA crews. By predicting biomass of TOF at actual FIA plots, this approach is directly compatible with traditionally reported FIA forest biomass, providing a framework for other states to follow, and should improve carbon reporting and modeling activities in Maryland.

Decision Tree based Prediction and Rule Induction for Groundwater Trichloroethene (TCE) Pollution Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Yoo, K.

2013-12-01

For groundwater resource conservation, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution sensitivity or vulnerability. In this work, we attempted to use data mining approach to assess groundwater pollution vulnerability in a TCE (trichloroethylene) contaminated Korean industrial site. The conventional DRASTIC method failed to describe TCE sensitivity data with a poor correlation with hydrogeological properties. Among the different data mining methods such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR), Case Base Reasoning (CBR), and Decision Tree (DT), the accuracy and consistency of Decision Tree (DT) was the best. According to the following tree analyses with the optimal DT model, the failure of the conventional DRASTIC method in fitting with TCE sensitivity data may be due to the use of inaccurate weight values of hydrogeological parameters for the study site. These findings provide a proof of concept that DT based data mining approach can be used in predicting and rule induction of groundwater TCE sensitivity without pre-existing information on weights of hydrogeological properties.

Mines Systems Safety Improvement Using an Integrated Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ranjan; Ghosh, Achyuta Krishna

2017-04-01

Mines systems such as ventilation system, strata support system, flame proof safety equipment, are exposed to dynamic operational conditions such as stress, humidity, dust, temperature, etc., and safety improvement of such systems can be done preferably during planning and design stage. However, the existing safety analysis methods do not handle the accident initiation and progression of mine systems explicitly. To bridge this gap, this paper presents an integrated Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) approach for safety analysis and improvement of mine systems design. This approach includes ET and FT modeling coupled with redundancy allocation technique. In this method, a concept of top hazard probability is introduced for identifying system failure probability and redundancy is allocated to the system either at component or system level. A case study on mine methane explosion safety with two initiating events is performed. The results demonstrate that the presented method can reveal the accident scenarios and improve the safety of complex mine systems simultaneously.

Climate-diameter growth relationships of black spruce and jack pine trees in boreal Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Subedi, Nirmal; Sharma, Mahadev

2013-02-01

To predict the long-term effects of climate change - global warming and changes in precipitation - on the diameter (radial) growth of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) trees in boreal Ontario, we modified an existing diameter growth model to include climate variables. Diameter chronologies of 927 jack pine and 1173 black spruce trees, growing in the area from 47°N to 50°N and 80°W to 92°W, were used to develop diameter growth models in a nonlinear mixed-effects approach. Our results showed that the variables long-term average of mean growing season temperature, precipitation during wettest quarter, and total precipitation during growing season were significant (alpha = 0.05) in explaining variation in diameter growth of the sample trees. Model results indicated that higher temperatures during the growing season would increase the diameter growth of jack pine trees, but decrease that of black spruce trees. More precipitation during the wettest quarter would favor the diameter growth of both species. On the other hand, a wetter growing season, which may decrease radiation inputs, increase nutrient leaching, and reduce the decomposition rate, would reduce the diameter growth of both species. Moreover, our results indicated that future (2041-2070) diameter growth rate may differ from current (1971-2000) growth rates for both species, with conditions being more favorable for jack pine than black spruce trees. Expected future changes in the growth rate of boreal trees need to be considered in forest management decisions. We recommend that knowledge of climate-growth relationships, as represented by models, be combined with learning from adaptive management to reduce the risks and uncertainties associated with forest management decisions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Challenges in Species Tree Estimation Under the Multispecies Coalescent Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Bo; Yang, Ziheng

2016-01-01

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model has emerged as a powerful framework for inferring species phylogenies while accounting for ancestral polymorphism and gene tree-species tree conflict. A number of methods have been developed in the past few years to estimate the species tree under the MSC. The full likelihood methods (including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference) average over the unknown gene trees and accommodate their uncertainties properly but involve intensive computation. The approximate or summary coalescent methods are computationally fast and are applicable to genomic datasets with thousands of loci, but do not make an efficient use of information in the multilocus data. Most of them take the two-step approach of reconstructing the gene trees for multiple loci by phylogenetic methods and then treating the estimated gene trees as observed data, without accounting for their uncertainties appropriately. In this article we review the statistical nature of the species tree estimation problem under the MSC, and explore the conceptual issues and challenges of species tree estimation by focusing mainly on simple cases of three or four closely related species. We use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to demonstrate that large differences in statistical performance may exist between the two classes of methods. We illustrate that several counterintuitive behaviors may occur with the summary methods but they are due to inefficient use of information in the data by summary methods and vanish when the data are analyzed using full-likelihood methods. These include (i) unidentifiability of parameters in the model, (ii) inconsistency in the so-called anomaly zone, (iii) singularity on the likelihood surface, and (iv) deterioration of performance upon addition of more data. We discuss the challenges and strategies of species tree inference for distantly related species when the molecular clock is violated, and highlight the need for improving the computational efficiency and model realism of the likelihood methods as well as the statistical efficiency of the summary methods. PMID:27927902

Modeling vertebrate diversity in Oregon using satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cablk, Mary Elizabeth

Vertebrate diversity was modeled for the state of Oregon using a parametric approach to regression tree analysis. This exploratory data analysis effectively modeled the non-linear relationships between vertebrate richness and phenology, terrain, and climate. Phenology was derived from time-series NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery for the year 1992 using two methods: principal component analysis and derivation of EROS data center greenness metrics. These two measures of spatial and temporal vegetation condition incorporated the critical temporal element in this analysis. The first three principal components were shown to contain spatial and temporal information about the landscape and discriminated phenologically distinct regions in Oregon. Principal components 2 and 3, 6 greenness metrics, elevation, slope, aspect, annual precipitation, and annual seasonal temperature difference were investigated as correlates to amphibians, birds, all vertebrates, reptiles, and mammals. Variation explained for each regression tree by taxa were: amphibians (91%), birds (67%), all vertebrates (66%), reptiles (57%), and mammals (55%). Spatial statistics were used to quantify the pattern of each taxa and assess validity of resulting predictions from regression tree models. Regression tree analysis was relatively robust against spatial autocorrelation in the response data and graphical results indicated models were well fit to the data.

An approach to solving large reliability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Mark A.; Veeraraghavan, Malathi; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.

1988-01-01

This paper describes a unified approach to the problem of solving large realistic reliability models. The methodology integrates behavioral decomposition, state trunction, and efficient sparse matrix-based numerical methods. The use of fault trees, together with ancillary information regarding dependencies to automatically generate the underlying Markov model state space is proposed. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by modeling a state-of-the-art flight control system and a multiprocessor system. Nonexponential distributions for times to failure of components are assumed in the latter example. The modeling tool used for most of this analysis is HARP (the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor).

Design of Probabilistic Random Forests with Applications to Anticancer Drug Sensitivity Prediction

PubMed Central

Rahman, Raziur; Haider, Saad; Ghosh, Souparno; Pal, Ranadip

2015-01-01

Random forests consisting of an ensemble of regression trees with equal weights are frequently used for design of predictive models. In this article, we consider an extension of the methodology by representing the regression trees in the form of probabilistic trees and analyzing the nature of heteroscedasticity. The probabilistic tree representation allows for analytical computation of confidence intervals (CIs), and the tree weight optimization is expected to provide stricter CIs with comparable performance in mean error. We approached the ensemble of probabilistic trees’ prediction from the perspectives of a mixture distribution and as a weighted sum of correlated random variables. We applied our methodology to the drug sensitivity prediction problem on synthetic and cancer cell line encyclopedia dataset and illustrated that tree weights can be selected to reduce the average length of the CI without increase in mean error. PMID:27081304

Assessment of wastewater treatment facility compliance with decreasing ammonia discharge limits using a regression tree model.

PubMed

Suchetana, Bihu; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Silverstein, JoAnn

2017-11-15

A regression tree-based diagnostic approach is developed to evaluate factors affecting US wastewater treatment plant compliance with ammonia discharge permit limits using Discharge Monthly Report (DMR) data from a sample of 106 municipal treatment plants for the period of 2004-2008. Predictor variables used to fit the regression tree are selected using random forests, and consist of the previous month's effluent ammonia, influent flow rates and plant capacity utilization. The tree models are first used to evaluate compliance with existing ammonia discharge standards at each facility and then applied assuming more stringent discharge limits, under consideration in many states. The model predicts that the ability to meet both current and future limits depends primarily on the previous month's treatment performance. With more stringent discharge limits predicted ammonia concentration relative to the discharge limit, increases. In-sample validation shows that the regression trees can provide a median classification accuracy of >70%. The regression tree model is validated using ammonia discharge data from an operating wastewater treatment plant and is able to accurately predict the observed ammonia discharge category approximately 80% of the time, indicating that the regression tree model can be applied to predict compliance for individual treatment plants providing practical guidance for utilities and regulators with an interest in controlling ammonia discharges. The proposed methodology is also used to demonstrate how to delineate reliable sources of demand and supply in a point source-to-point source nutrient credit trading scheme, as well as how planners and decision makers can set reasonable discharge limits in future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Fault Trees to Advance Understanding of Diagnostic Errors.

PubMed

Rogith, Deevakar; Iyengar, M Sriram; Singh, Hardeep

2017-11-01

Diagnostic errors annually affect at least 5% of adults in the outpatient setting in the United States. Formal analytic techniques are only infrequently used to understand them, in part because of the complexity of diagnostic processes and clinical work flows involved. In this article, diagnostic errors were modeled using fault tree analysis (FTA), a form of root cause analysis that has been successfully used in other high-complexity, high-risk contexts. How factors contributing to diagnostic errors can be systematically modeled by FTA to inform error understanding and error prevention is demonstrated. A team of three experts reviewed 10 published cases of diagnostic error and constructed fault trees. The fault trees were modeled according to currently available conceptual frameworks characterizing diagnostic error. The 10 trees were then synthesized into a single fault tree to identify common contributing factors and pathways leading to diagnostic error. FTA is a visual, structured, deductive approach that depicts the temporal sequence of events and their interactions in a formal logical hierarchy. The visual FTA enables easier understanding of causative processes and cognitive and system factors, as well as rapid identification of common pathways and interactions in a unified fashion. In addition, it enables calculation of empirical estimates for causative pathways. Thus, fault trees might provide a useful framework for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of diagnostic errors. Future directions include establishing validity and reliability by modeling a wider range of error cases, conducting quantitative evaluations, and undertaking deeper exploration of other FTA capabilities. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water and light improvement after thinning at a xeric site: Which weights the most? A dual isotope approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuggiola, Arnaud; Ogée, Jérôme; Gessler, Arthur; Rigling, Andreas; Bugmann, Harald; Treydte, Kerstin

2015-04-01

Reductions in stand density foster individual tree growth due to increases of resources such as water, light and nutrients. Detailed knowledge of the short- to long-term physiological response underlying the growth response to thinning is crucial for the management of forests already suffering from recurrent drought-induced dieback. We applied a dual isotope approach together with mechanistic isotope models such as MuSICA to study the physiological processes underlying growth enhancement in a long-term thinning experiment in a xeric Pinus sylvestris forest in Switzerland. This approach allowed for identifying and disentangling changes in stomatal conductance and assimilation rate. Our results indicate that an increase in stomatal conductance outweighs an increase in assimilation, meaning that the observed growth releases in heavy thinned trees at our xeric site are primarily driven by enhanced water availability rather than by the increase in light availability. We conclude that in areas with isohydric species (drought avoiders) that tend to grow close to their physiological limits, thinning is highly recommended to maintain a less negative water balance and thus foster tree growth, and ultimately the survival rate of individual trees and forests.

Tree-based approach for exploring marine spatial patterns with raster datasets.

PubMed

Liao, Xiaohan; Xue, Cunjin; Su, Fenzhen

2017-01-01

From multiple raster datasets to spatial association patterns, the data-mining technique is divided into three subtasks, i.e., raster dataset pretreatment, mining algorithm design, and spatial pattern exploration from the mining results. Comparison with the former two subtasks reveals that the latter remains unresolved. Confronted with the interrelated marine environmental parameters, we propose a Tree-based Approach for eXploring Marine Spatial Patterns with multiple raster datasets called TAXMarSP, which includes two models. One is the Tree-based Cascading Organization Model (TCOM), and the other is the Spatial Neighborhood-based CAlculation Model (SNCAM). TCOM designs the "Spatial node→Pattern node" from top to bottom layers to store the table-formatted frequent patterns. Together with TCOM, SNCAM considers the spatial neighborhood contributions to calculate the pattern-matching degree between the specified marine parameters and the table-formatted frequent patterns and then explores the marine spatial patterns. Using the prevalent quantification Apriori algorithm and a real remote sensing dataset from January 1998 to December 2014, a successful application of TAXMarSP to marine spatial patterns in the Pacific Ocean is described, and the obtained marine spatial patterns present not only the well-known but also new patterns to Earth scientists.

Benefit-based tree valuation

Treesearch

E.G. McPherson

2007-01-01

Benefit-based tree valuation provides alternative estimates of the fair and reasonable value of trees while illustrating the relative contribution of different benefit types. This study compared estimates of tree value obtained using cost- and benefit-based approaches. The cost-based approach used the Council of Landscape and Tree Appraisers trunk formula method, and...

Progressive 3D shape abstraction via hierarchical CSG tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xingyou; Tang, Jin; Li, Chenglong

2017-06-01

A constructive solid geometry(CSG) tree model is proposed to progressively abstract 3D geometric shape of general object from 2D image. Unlike conventional ones, our method applies to general object without the need for massive CAD models, and represents the object shapes in a coarse-to-fine manner that allows users to view temporal shape representations at any time. It stands in a transitional position between 2D image feature and CAD model, benefits from state-of-the-art object detection approaches and better initializes CAD model for finer fitting, estimates 3D shape and pose parameters of object at different levels according to visual perception objective, in a coarse-to-fine manner. Two main contributions are the application of CSG building up procedure into visual perception, and the ability of extending object estimation result into a more flexible and expressive model than 2D/3D primitive shapes. Experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

2013-08-01

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

Potential impacts of climate change on birds and trees of the eastern United States: newest climate scenarios and species abundance modelling techniques

Treesearch

L.R. Iverson; A.M. Prasad; S.N. Matthews; M.P. Peters

2007-01-01

Climate change is affecting an increasing number of species the world over, and evidence is mounting that these changes will continue to accelerate. There have been many studies that use a modelling approach to predict the effects of future climatic change on ecological systems, including by us (Iverson et al. 1999, Matthews et al. 2004); this modelling approach uses a...

A digital spatial predictive model of land-use change using economic and environmental inputs and a statistical tree classification approach: Thailand, 1970s--1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felkner, John Sames

The scale and extent of global land use change is massive, and has potentially powerful effects on the global climate and global atmospheric composition (Turner & Meyer, 1994). Because of this tremendous change and impact, there is an urgent need for quantitative, empirical models of land use change, especially predictive models with an ability to capture the trajectories of change (Agarwal, Green, Grove, Evans, & Schweik, 2000; Lambin et al., 1999). For this research, a spatial statistical predictive model of land use change was created and run in two provinces of Thailand. The model utilized an extensive spatial database, and used a classification tree approach for explanatory model creation and future land use (Breiman, Friedman, Olshen, & Stone, 1984). Eight input variables were used, and the trees were run on a dependent variable of land use change measured from 1979 to 1989 using classified satellite imagery. The derived tree models were used to create probability of change surfaces, and these were then used to create predicted land cover maps for 1999. These predicted 1999 maps were compared with actual 1999 landcover derived from 1999 Landsat 7 imagery. The primary research hypothesis was that an explanatory model using both economic and environmental input variables would better predict future land use change than would either a model using only economic variables or a model using only environmental. Thus, the eight input variables included four economic and four environmental variables. The results indicated a very slight superiority of the full models to predict future agricultural change and future deforestation, but a slight superiority of the economic models to predict future built change. However, the margins of superiority were too small to be statistically significant. The resulting tree structures were used, however, to derive a series of principles or "rules" governing land use change in both provinces. The model was able to predict future land use, given a series of assumptions, with 90 percent overall accuracies. The model can be used in other developing or developed country locations for future land use prediction, determination of future threatened areas, or to derive "rules" or principles driving land use change.

Data Clustering and Evolving Fuzzy Decision Tree for Data Base Classification Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Pei-Chann; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Wang, Yen-Wen

Data base classification suffers from two well known difficulties, i.e., the high dimensionality and non-stationary variations within the large historic data. This paper presents a hybrid classification model by integrating a case based reasoning technique, a Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT), and Genetic Algorithms (GA) to construct a decision-making system for data classification in various data base applications. The model is major based on the idea that the historic data base can be transformed into a smaller case-base together with a group of fuzzy decision rules. As a result, the model can be more accurately respond to the current data under classifying from the inductions by these smaller cases based fuzzy decision trees. Hit rate is applied as a performance measure and the effectiveness of our proposed model is demonstrated by experimentally compared with other approaches on different data base classification applications. The average hit rate of our proposed model is the highest among others.

Individual tree crown approach for predicting site index in boreal forests using airborne laser scanning and hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandare, Kaja; Ørka, Hans Ole; Dalponte, Michele; Næsset, Erik; Gobakken, Terje

2017-08-01

Site productivity is essential information for sustainable forest management and site index (SI) is the most common quantitative measure of it. The SI is usually determined for individual tree species based on tree height and the age of the 100 largest trees per hectare according to stem diameter. The present study aimed to demonstrate and validate a methodology for the determination of SI using remotely sensed data, in particular fused airborne laser scanning (ALS) and airborne hyperspectral data in a forest site in Norway. The applied approach was based on individual tree crown (ITC) delineation: tree species, tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and age were modelled and predicted at ITC level using 10-fold cross validation. Four dominant ITCs per 400 m2 plot were selected as input to predict SI at plot level for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). We applied an experimental setup with different subsets of dominant ITCs with different combinations of attributes (predicted or field-derived) for SI predictions. The results revealed that the selection of the dominant ITCs based on the largest DBH independent of tree species, predicted the SI with similar accuracy as ITCs matched with field-derived dominant trees (RMSE: 27.6% vs 23.3%). The SI accuracies were at the same level when dominant species were determined from the remotely sensed or field data (RMSE: 27.6% vs 27.8%). However, when the predicted tree age was used the SI accuracy decreased compared to field-derived age (RMSE: 27.6% vs 7.6%). In general, SI was overpredicted for both tree species in the mature forest, while there was an underprediction in the young forest. In conclusion, the proposed approach for SI determination based on ITC delineation and a combination of ALS and hyperspectral data is an efficient and stable procedure, which has the potential to predict SI in forest areas at various spatial scales and additionally to improve existing SI maps in Norway.

iGLASS: An Improvement to the GLASS Method for Estimating Species Trees from Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Rosenberg, Noah A.

2012-01-01

Abstract Several methods have been designed to infer species trees from gene trees while taking into account gene tree/species tree discordance. Although some of these methods provide consistent species tree topology estimates under a standard model, most either do not estimate branch lengths or are computationally slow. An exception, the GLASS method of Mossel and Roch, is consistent for the species tree topology, estimates branch lengths, and is computationally fast. However, GLASS systematically overestimates divergence times, leading to biased estimates of species tree branch lengths. By assuming a multispecies coalescent model in which multiple lineages are sampled from each of two taxa at L independent loci, we derive the distribution of the waiting time until the first interspecific coalescence occurs between the two taxa, considering all loci and measuring from the divergence time. We then use the mean of this distribution to derive a correction to the GLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times. We show that our improved estimator, which we call iGLASS, consistently estimates the divergence time between a pair of taxa as the number of loci approaches infinity, and that it is an unbiased estimator of divergence times when one lineage is sampled per taxon. We also show that many commonly used clustering methods can be combined with the iGLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times to produce a consistent estimator of the species tree topology. Through simulations, we show that iGLASS can greatly reduce the bias and mean squared error in obtaining estimates of divergence times in a species tree. PMID:22216756

An improved spanning tree approach for the reliability analysis of supply chain collaborative network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, C. Y.; Ip, W. H.

2012-11-01

A higher degree of reliability in the collaborative network can increase the competitiveness and performance of an entire supply chain. As supply chain networks grow more complex, the consequences of unreliable behaviour become increasingly severe in terms of cost, effort and time. Moreover, it is computationally difficult to calculate the network reliability of a Non-deterministic Polynomial-time hard (NP-hard) all-terminal network using state enumeration, as this may require a huge number of iterations for topology optimisation. Therefore, this paper proposes an alternative approach of an improved spanning tree for reliability analysis to help effectively evaluate and analyse the reliability of collaborative networks in supply chains and reduce the comparative computational complexity of algorithms. Set theory is employed to evaluate and model the all-terminal reliability of the improved spanning tree algorithm and present a case study of a supply chain used in lamp production to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.

Real-Time Interactive Tree Animation.

PubMed

Quigley, Ed; Yu, Yue; Huang, Jingwei; Lin, Winnie; Fedkiw, Ronald

2018-05-01

We present a novel method for posing and animating botanical tree models interactively in real time. Unlike other state of the art methods which tend to produce trees that are overly flexible, bending and deforming as if they were underwater plants, our approach allows for arbitrarily high stiffness while still maintaining real-time frame rates without spurious artifacts, even on quite large trees with over ten thousand branches. This is accomplished by using an articulated rigid body model with as-stiff-as-desired rotational springs in conjunction with our newly proposed simulation technique, which is motivated both by position based dynamics and the typical algorithms for articulated rigid bodies. The efficiency of our algorithm allows us to pose and animate trees with millions of branches or alternatively simulate a small forest comprised of many highly detailed trees. Even using only a single CPU core, we can simulate ten thousand branches in real time while still maintaining quite crisp user interactivity. This has allowed us to incorporate our framework into a commodity game engine to run interactively even on a low-budget tablet. We show that our method is amenable to the incorporation of a large variety of desirable effects such as wind, leaves, fictitious forces, collisions, fracture, etc.

Age-Dependent and Lineage-Dependent Speciation and Extinction in the Imbalance of Phylogenetic Trees.

PubMed

Holman, Eric W

2017-11-01

It is known that phylogenetic trees are more imbalanced than expected from a birth-death model with constant rates of speciation and extinction, and also that imbalance can be better fit by allowing the rate of speciation to decrease as the age of the parent species increases. If imbalance is measured in more detail, at nodes within trees as a function of the number of species descended from the nodes, age-dependent models predict levels of imbalance comparable to real trees for small numbers of descendent species, but predicted imbalance approaches an asymptote not found in real trees as the number of descendent species becomes large. Age-dependence must therefore be complemented by another process such as inheritance of different rates along different lineages, which is known to predict insufficient imbalance at nodes with few descendent species, but can predict increasing imbalance with increasing numbers of descendent species. [Crump-Mode-Jagers process; diversification; macroevolution; taxon sampling; tree of life.]. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Detection of Uniform and Nonuniform Differential Item Functioning by Item-Focused Trees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berger, Moritz; Tutz, Gerhard

2016-01-01

Detection of differential item functioning (DIF) by use of the logistic modeling approach has a long tradition. One big advantage of the approach is that it can be used to investigate nonuniform (NUDIF) as well as uniform DIF (UDIF). The classical approach allows one to detect DIF by distinguishing between multiple groups. We propose an…

The structure of tropical forests and sphere packings

PubMed Central

Jahn, Markus Wilhelm; Dobner, Hans-Jürgen; Wiegand, Thorsten; Huth, Andreas

2015-01-01

The search for simple principles underlying the complex architecture of ecological communities such as forests still challenges ecological theorists. We use tree diameter distributions—fundamental for deriving other forest attributes—to describe the structure of tropical forests. Here we argue that tree diameter distributions of natural tropical forests can be explained by stochastic packing of tree crowns representing a forest crown packing system: a method usually used in physics or chemistry. We demonstrate that tree diameter distributions emerge accurately from a surprisingly simple set of principles that include site-specific tree allometries, random placement of trees, competition for space, and mortality. The simple static model also successfully predicted the canopy structure, revealing that most trees in our two studied forests grow up to 30–50 m in height and that the highest packing density of about 60% is reached between the 25- and 40-m height layer. Our approach is an important step toward identifying a minimal set of processes responsible for generating the spatial structure of tropical forests. PMID:26598678

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Reconfigurable tree architectures using subtree oriented fault tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowrie, Matthew B.

1987-01-01

An approach to the design of reconfigurable tree architecture is presented in which spare processors are allocated at the leaves. The approach is unique in that spares are associated with subtrees and sharing of spares between these subtrees can occur. The Subtree Oriented Fault Tolerance (SOFT) approach is more reliable than previous approaches capable of tolerating link and switch failures for both single chip and multichip tree implementations while reducing redundancy in terms of both spare processors and links. VLSI layout is 0(n) for binary trees and is directly extensible to N-ary trees and fault tolerance through performance degradation.

Hybrid model of arm for analysis of regional blood oxygenation in non-invasive optical diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowocień, Sylwester; Mroczka, Janusz

2017-06-01

The paper presents a new comprehensive approach to modeling and analysis of processes occurring during the blood flow in the arm's small vessels as well as non-invasive measurement method of mixed venous oxygen saturation. During the work, a meta-analysis of available physiological data was performed and based on its result a hybrid model of forearm vascular tree was proposed. The model, in its structure, takes into account a classical nonlinear hydro-electric analogy in conjunction with light-tissue interaction. Several geometries of arm vascular tree obtained from magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) image were analyzed which allowed to proposed the structure of electrical analog network. Proposed model allows to simulate the behavior of forearm blood flow from the vascular tree mechanics point of view, as well as effects of the impact of cuff and vessel wall mechanics on the recorded photoplethysmographic signals. In particular, it allows to analyze the reaction and anatomical effects in small vessels and microcirculation caused by occlusive maneuver in selected techniques, what was of particular interest to authors and motivation to undertake research in this area. Preliminary studies using proposed model showed that inappropriate selection of occlusion maneuver parameters (e.g. occlusion time, cuff pressure etc.), cause dangerous turbulence of blood flow in the venous section of the vascular tree.

hs-CRP is strongly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD): A data mining approach using decision tree algorithm.

PubMed

Tayefi, Maryam; Tajfard, Mohammad; Saffar, Sara; Hanachi, Parichehr; Amirabadizadeh, Ali Reza; Esmaeily, Habibollah; Taghipour, Ali; Ferns, Gordon A; Moohebati, Mohsen; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid

2017-04-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is an important public health problem globally. Algorithms incorporating the assessment of clinical biomarkers together with several established traditional risk factors can help clinicians to predict CHD and support clinical decision making with respect to interventions. Decision tree (DT) is a data mining model for extracting hidden knowledge from large databases. We aimed to establish a predictive model for coronary heart disease using a decision tree algorithm. Here we used a dataset of 2346 individuals including 1159 healthy participants and 1187 participant who had undergone coronary angiography (405 participants with negative angiography and 782 participants with positive angiography). We entered 10 variables of a total 12 variables into the DT algorithm (including age, sex, FBG, TG, hs-CRP, TC, HDL, LDL, SBP and DBP). Our model could identify the associated risk factors of CHD with sensitivity, specificity, accuracy of 96%, 87%, 94% and respectively. Serum hs-CRP levels was at top of the tree in our model, following by FBG, gender and age. Our model appears to be an accurate, specific and sensitive model for identifying the presence of CHD, but will require validation in prospective studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Hybrid Approach of Stepwise Regression, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree for Forecasting Fraudulent Financial Statements

PubMed Central

Goo, Yeong-Jia James; Shen, Zone-De

2014-01-01

As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%. PMID:25302338

A hybrid approach of stepwise regression, logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree for forecasting fraudulent financial statements.

PubMed

Chen, Suduan; Goo, Yeong-Jia James; Shen, Zone-De

2014-01-01

As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%.

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees. PMID:28545083

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-05-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees.

The prediction of breast cancer biopsy outcomes using two CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elter, M.; Schulz-Wendtland, R.; Wittenberg, T.

2007-11-15

Mammography is the most effective method for breast cancer screening available today. However, the low positive predictive value of breast biopsy resulting from mammogram interpretation leads to approximately 70% unnecessary biopsies with benign outcomes. To reduce the high number of unnecessary breast biopsies, several computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been proposed in the last several years. These systems help physicians in their decision to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. We present two novel CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process to predictmore » breast biopsy outcomes from BI-RADS findings. An intelligible reasoning process is an important requirement for the acceptance of CAD systems by physicians. The first approach induces a global model based on decison-tree learning. The second approach is based on case-based reasoning and applies an entropic similarity measure. We have evaluated the performance of both CAD approaches on two large publicly available mammography reference databases using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, bootstrap sampling, and the ANOVA statistical significance test. Both approaches outperform the diagnosis decisions of the physicians. Hence, both systems have the potential to reduce the number of unnecessary breast biopsies in clinical practice. A comparison of the performance of the proposed decision tree and CBR approaches with a state of the art approach based on artificial neural networks (ANN) shows that the CBR approach performs slightly better than the ANN approach, which in turn results in slightly better performance than the decision-tree approach. The differences are statistically significant (p value <0.001). On 2100 masses extracted from the DDSM database, the CRB approach for example resulted in an area under the ROC curve of A(z)=0.89{+-}0.01, the decision-tree approach in A(z)=0.87{+-}0.01, and the ANN approach in A(z)=0.88{+-}0.01.« less

Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC.

PubMed

Keane, R E; Ryan, K C; Running, S W

1996-03-01

A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.

An AI-based approach to structural damage identification by modal analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B. J.; Hanagud, S.

1990-01-01

Flexible-structure damage is presently addressed by a combined model- and parameter-identification approach which employs the AI methodologies of classification, heuristic search, and object-oriented model knowledge representation. The conditions for model-space search convergence to the best model are discussed in terms of search-tree organization and initial model parameter error. In the illustrative example of a truss structure presented, the use of both model and parameter identification is shown to lead to smaller parameter corrections than would be required by parameter identification alone.

How eco-evolutionary principles can guide tree breeding and tree biotechnology for enhanced productivity.

PubMed

Franklin, Oskar; Palmroth, Sari; Näsholm, Torgny

2014-11-01

Tree breeding and biotechnology can enhance forest productivity and help alleviate the rising pressure on forests from climate change and human exploitation. While many physiological processes and genes are targeted in search of genetically improved tree productivity, an overarching principle to guide this search is missing. Here, we propose a method to identify the traits that can be modified to enhance productivity, based on the differences between trees shaped by natural selection and 'improved' trees with traits optimized for productivity. We developed a tractable model of plant growth and survival to explore such potential modifications under a range of environmental conditions, from non-water limited to severely drought-limited sites. We show how key traits are controlled by a trade-off between productivity and survival, and that productivity can be increased at the expense of long-term survival by reducing isohydric behavior (stomatal regulation of leaf water potential) and allocation to defense against pests compared with native trees. In contrast, at dry sites occupied by naturally drought-resistant trees, the model suggests a better strategy may be to select trees with slightly lower wood density than the native trees and to augment isohydric behavior and allocation to defense. Thus, which traits to modify, and in which direction, depend on the original tree species or genotype, the growth environment and wood-quality versus volume production preferences. In contrast to this need for customization of drought and pest resistances, consistent large gains in productivity for all genotypes can be obtained if root traits can be altered to reduce competition for water and nutrients. Our approach illustrates the potential of using eco-evolutionary theory and modeling to guide plant breeding and genetic technology in selecting target traits in the quest for higher forest productivity. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Allometric Convergence in Savanna Trees and Implications for the Use of Plant Scaling Models in Variable Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Tredennick, Andrew T.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Hanan, Niall P.

2013-01-01

Theoretical models of allometric scaling provide frameworks for understanding and predicting how and why the morphology and function of organisms vary with scale. It remains unclear, however, if the predictions of ‘universal’ scaling models for vascular plants hold across diverse species in variable environments. Phenomena such as competition and disturbance may drive allometric scaling relationships away from theoretical predictions based on an optimized tree. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to calculate tree-specific, species-specific, and ‘global’ (i.e. interspecific) scaling exponents for several allometric relationships using tree- and branch-level data harvested from three savanna sites across a rainfall gradient in Mali, West Africa. We use these exponents to provide a rigorous test of three plant scaling models (Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST), Geometric Similarity, and Stress Similarity) in savanna systems. For the allometric relationships we evaluated (diameter vs. length, aboveground mass, stem mass, and leaf mass) the empirically calculated exponents broadly overlapped among species from diverse environments, except for the scaling exponents for length, which increased with tree cover and density. When we compare empirical scaling exponents to the theoretical predictions from the three models we find MST predictions are most consistent with our observed allometries. In those situations where observations are inconsistent with MST we find that departure from theory corresponds with expected tradeoffs related to disturbance and competitive interactions. We hypothesize savanna trees have greater length-scaling exponents than predicted by MST due to an evolutionary tradeoff between fire escape and optimization of mechanical stability and internal resource transport. Future research on the drivers of systematic allometric variation could reconcile the differences between observed scaling relationships in variable ecosystems and those predicted by ideal models such as MST. PMID:23484003

Estimating tree species diversity in the savannah using NDVI and woody canopy cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madonsela, Sabelo; Cho, Moses Azong; Ramoelo, Abel; Mutanga, Onisimo; Naidoo, Laven

2018-04-01

Remote sensing applications in biodiversity research often rely on the establishment of relationships between spectral information from the image and tree species diversity measured in the field. Most studies have used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to estimate tree species diversity on the basis that it is sensitive to primary productivity which defines spatial variation in plant diversity. The NDVI signal is influenced by photosynthetically active vegetation which, in the savannah, includes woody canopy foliage and grasses. The question is whether the relationship between NDVI and tree species diversity in the savanna depends on the woody cover percentage. This study explored the relationship between woody canopy cover (WCC) and tree species diversity in the savannah woodland of southern Africa and also investigated whether there is a significant interaction between seasonal NDVI and WCC in the factorial model when estimating tree species diversity. To fulfil our aim, we followed stratified random sampling approach and surveyed tree species in 68 plots of 90 m × 90 m across the study area. Within each plot, all trees with diameter at breast height of >10 cm were sampled and Shannon index - a common measure of species diversity which considers both species richness and abundance - was used to quantify tree species diversity. We then extracted WCC in each plot from existing fractional woody cover product produced from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Factorial regression model was used to determine the interaction effect between NDVI and WCC when estimating tree species diversity. Results from regression analysis showed that (i) WCC has a highly significant relationship with tree species diversity (r2 = 0.21; p < 0.01), (ii) the interaction between the NDVI and WCC is not significant, however, the factorial model significantly reduced the error of prediction (RMSE = 0.47, p < 0.05) compared to NDVI (RMSE = 0.49) or WCC (RMSE = 0.49) model during the senescence period. The result justifies our assertion that combining NDVI with WCC will be optimal for biodiversity estimation during the senescence period.

Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pabst, R.J.; Goslin, M.N.; Garman, S.L.; Spies, T.A.

2008-01-01

The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate regeneration of shade-tolerant trees and underestimate total tree density (i.e., higher rates of tree mortality). However, comparisons with the chronosequences of forest inventory data indicated that the simulated data are within the range of variability observed in the Coast Range. Further exploration and improvement of ZELIG is warranted in three key areas: (1) modeling rapid rates of conifer tree growth without the need for a diameter-growth multiplier; (2) understanding and remedying rates of tree mortality that were higher than those observed in the independent data; and (3) improving the tree regeneration module to account for competition with understory vegetation. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

RY-Coding and Non-Homogeneous Models Can Ameliorate the Maximum-Likelihood Inferences From Nucleotide Sequence Data with Parallel Compositional Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Sohta A; Inagaki, Yuji; Hashimoto, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

In phylogenetic analyses of nucleotide sequences, 'homogeneous' substitution models, which assume the stationarity of base composition across a tree, are widely used, albeit individual sequences may bear distinctive base frequencies. In the worst-case scenario, a homogeneous model-based analysis can yield an artifactual union of two distantly related sequences that achieved similar base frequencies in parallel. Such potential difficulty can be countered by two approaches, 'RY-coding' and 'non-homogeneous' models. The former approach converts four bases into purine and pyrimidine to normalize base frequencies across a tree, while the heterogeneity in base frequency is explicitly incorporated in the latter approach. The two approaches have been applied to real-world sequence data; however, their basic properties have not been fully examined by pioneering simulation studies. Here, we assessed the performances of the maximum-likelihood analyses incorporating RY-coding and a non-homogeneous model (RY-coding and non-homogeneous analyses) on simulated data with parallel convergence to similar base composition. Both RY-coding and non-homogeneous analyses showed superior performances compared with homogeneous model-based analyses. Curiously, the performance of RY-coding analysis appeared to be significantly affected by a setting of the substitution process for sequence simulation relative to that of non-homogeneous analysis. The performance of a non-homogeneous analysis was also validated by analyzing a real-world sequence data set with significant base heterogeneity.

Distinguishing Between Convergent Evolution and Violation of the Molecular Clock for Three Taxa.

PubMed

Mitchell, Jonathan D; Sumner, Jeremy G; Holland, Barbara R

2018-05-18

We give a non-technical introduction to convergence-divergence models, a new modeling approach for phylogenetic data that allows for the usual divergence of lineages after lineage-splitting but also allows for taxa to converge, i.e. become more similar over time. By examining the 3-taxon case in some detail we illustrate that phylogeneticists have been "spoiled" in the sense of not having to think about the structural parameters in their models by virtue of the strong assumption that evolution is tree-like. We show that there are not always good statistical reasons to prefer the usual class of tree-like models over more general convergence-divergence models. Specifically we show many 3-taxon data sets can be equally well explained by supposing violation of the molecular clock due to change in the rate of evolution along different edges, or by keeping the assumption of a constant rate of evolution but instead assuming that evolution is not a purely divergent process. Given the abundance of evidence that evolution is not strictly tree-like, our discussion is an illustration that as phylogeneticists we need to think clearly about the structural form of the models we use. For cases with four taxa we show that there will be far greater ability to distinguish models with convergence from non-clock-like tree models.

Airborne laser scanning for forest health status assessment and radiative transfer modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novotny, Jan; Zemek, Frantisek; Pikl, Miroslav; Janoutova, Ruzena

2013-04-01

Structural parameters of forest stands/ecosystems are an important complementary source of information to spectral signatures obtained from airborne imaging spectroscopy when quantitative assessment of forest stands are in the focus, such as estimation of forest biomass, biochemical properties (e.g. chlorophyll /water content), etc. The parameterization of radiative transfer (RT) models used in latter case requires three-dimensional spatial distribution of green foliage and woody biomass. Airborne LiDAR data acquired over forest sites bears these kinds of 3D information. The main objective of the study was to compare the results from several approaches to interpolation of digital elevation model (DEM) and digital surface model (DSM). We worked with airborne LiDAR data with different density (TopEye Mk II 1,064nm instrument, 1-5 points/m2) acquired over the Norway spruce forests situated in the Beskydy Mountains, the Czech Republic. Three different interpolation algorithms with increasing complexity were tested: i/Nearest neighbour approach implemented in the BCAL software package (Idaho Univ.); ii/Averaging and linear interpolation techniques used in the OPALS software (Vienna Univ. of Technology); iii/Active contour technique implemented in the TreeVis software (Univ. of Freiburg). We defined two spatial resolutions for the resulting coupled raster DEMs and DSMs outputs: 0.4 m and 1 m, calculated by each algorithm. The grids correspond to the same spatial resolutions of hyperspectral imagery data for which the DEMs were used in a/geometrical correction and b/building a complex tree models for radiative transfer modelling. We applied two types of analyses when comparing between results from the different interpolations/raster resolution: 1/calculated DEM or DSM between themselves; 2/comparison with field data: DEM with measurements from referential GPS, DSM - field tree alometric measurements, where tree height was calculated as DSM-DEM. The results of the analyses show that: 1/averaging techniques tend to underestimate the tree height and the generated surface does not follow the first LiDAR echoes both for 1 m and 0.4 m pixel size; 2/we did not find any significant difference between tree heights calculated by nearest neighbour algorithm and the active contour technique for 1 m pixel output but the difference increased with finer resolution (0.4 m); 3/the accuracy of the DEMs calculated by tested algorithms is similar.

the Role of Species, Structure, and Biochemical Traits in the Spatial Distribution of a Woodland Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeline, K.; Ustin, S.; Roth, K. L.; Huesca Martinez, M.; Schaaf, C.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.

2015-12-01

The assessment of canopy biochemical diversity is critical for monitoring ecological and physiological functioning and for mapping vegetation change dynamics in relation to environmental resources. For example in oak woodland savannas, these dynamics are mainly driven by water constraints. Inversion using radiative transfer theory is one method for estimating canopy biochemistry. However, this approach generally only considers relatively simple scenarios to model the canopy due to the difficulty in encompassing stand heterogeneity with spatial and temporal consistency. In this research, we compared 3 modeling strategies for estimating canopy biochemistry variables (i.e. chlorophyll, carotenoids, water, dry matter) by coupling of the PROSPECT (leaf level) and DART (canopy level) models : i) a simple forest representation made of ellipsoid trees, and two representations taking into account the tree species and structural composition, and the landscape spatial pattern, using (ii) geometric tree crown shapes and iii) detailed tree crown and wood structure retrieved from terrestrial lidar acquisitions. AVIRIS 18m remote sensing data are up-scaled to simulate HyspIRI 30m images. Both spatial resolutions are validated by measurements acquired during 2013-2014 field campaigns (cover/tree inventory, LAI, leaf sampling, optical measures). The results outline the trade-off between accurate and abstract canopy modeling for inversion purposes and may provide perspectives to assess the impact of the California drought with multi-temporal monitoring of canopy biochemistry traits.

Improving clinical models based on knowledge extracted from current datasets: a new approach.

PubMed

Mendes, D; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Morais, J

2016-08-01

The Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in the world, being prevention recognized to be a key intervention able to contradict this reality. In this context, although there are several models and scores currently used in clinical practice to assess the risk of a new cardiovascular event, they present some limitations. The goal of this paper is to improve the CVD risk prediction taking into account the current models as well as information extracted from real and recent datasets. This approach is based on a decision tree scheme in order to assure the clinical interpretability of the model. An innovative optimization strategy is developed in order to adjust the decision tree thresholds (rule structure is fixed) based on recent clinical datasets. A real dataset collected in the ambit of the National Registry on Acute Coronary Syndromes, Portuguese Society of Cardiology is applied to validate this work. In order to assess the performance of the new approach, the metrics sensitivity, specificity and accuracy are used. This new approach achieves sensitivity, a specificity and an accuracy values of, 80.52%, 74.19% and 77.27% respectively, which represents an improvement of about 26% in relation to the accuracy of the original score.

SLE as a Mating of Trees in Euclidean Geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Nina; Sun, Xin

2018-05-01

The mating of trees approach to Schramm-Loewner evolution (SLE) in the random geometry of Liouville quantum gravity (LQG) has been recently developed by Duplantier et al. (Liouville quantum gravity as a mating of trees, 2014. arXiv:1409.7055). In this paper we consider the mating of trees approach to SLE in Euclidean geometry. Let {η} be a whole-plane space-filling SLE with parameter {κ > 4} , parameterized by Lebesgue measure. The main observable in the mating of trees approach is the contour function, a two-dimensional continuous process describing the evolution of the Minkowski content of the left and right frontier of {η} . We prove regularity properties of the contour function and show that (as in the LQG case) it encodes all the information about the curve {η} . We also prove that the uniform spanning tree on {Z^2} converges to SLE8 in the natural topology associated with the mating of trees approach.

A new method to compare statistical tree growth curves: the PL-GMANOVA model and its application with dendrochronological data.

PubMed

Ricker, Martin; Peña Ramírez, Víctor M; von Rosen, Dietrich

2014-01-01

Growth curves are monotonically increasing functions that measure repeatedly the same subjects over time. The classical growth curve model in the statistical literature is the Generalized Multivariate Analysis of Variance (GMANOVA) model. In order to model the tree trunk radius (r) over time (t) of trees on different sites, GMANOVA is combined here with the adapted PL regression model Q = A · T+E, where for b ≠ 0 : Q = Ei[-b · r]-Ei[-b · r1] and for b = 0 : Q  = Ln[r/r1], A =  initial relative growth to be estimated, T = t-t1, and E is an error term for each tree and time point. Furthermore, Ei[-b · r]  = ∫(Exp[-b · r]/r)dr, b = -1/TPR, with TPR being the turning point radius in a sigmoid curve, and r1 at t1 is an estimated calibrating time-radius point. Advantages of the approach are that growth rates can be compared among growth curves with different turning point radiuses and different starting points, hidden outliers are easily detectable, the method is statistically robust, and heteroscedasticity of the residuals among time points is allowed. The model was implemented with dendrochronological data of 235 Pinus montezumae trees on ten Mexican volcano sites to calculate comparison intervals for the estimated initial relative growth A. One site (at the Popocatépetl volcano) stood out, with A being 3.9 times the value of the site with the slowest-growing trees. Calculating variance components for the initial relative growth, 34% of the growth variation was found among sites, 31% among trees, and 35% over time. Without the Popocatépetl site, the numbers changed to 7%, 42%, and 51%. Further explanation of differences in growth would need to focus on factors that vary within sites and over time.

Habitat choice of multiple pollinators in almond trees and its potential effect on pollen movement and productivity: A theoretical approach using the Shigesada-Kawasaki-Teramoto model.

PubMed

Yong, Kamuela E; Li, Yi; Hendrix, Stephen D

2012-07-21

California's almond industry, valued at $2.3 billion per year, depends on the pollinator services of honey bees, although pollination by other insects, mainly solitary wild bees, is being investigated as an alternative because of recent declines in the number of honey bee colonies. Our objective is to model the movements of honey bees and determine the conditions under which they will forage in less favorable areas of a tree and its surroundings when other pollinators are present. We hypothesize that foraging in less favorable areas leads to increased movement between trees and increased cross pollination between varieties which is required for successful nut production. We use the Shigesada-Kawasaki-Teramoto model (1979) which describes the density of two species in a two-dimensional environment of variable favorableness with respect to intrinsic diffusions and intra and interspecific interactions of species. The model is applied to almond pollination by honey bees and other pollinators with environmental favorableness based on the distribution of flowers in trees. Using the spectral-Galerkin method in a rectangular domain, we numerically approximated the two-dimensional nonlinear parabolic partial differential system arising in the model. When cross-diffusion or interspecific effects of other pollinators was high, honey bees foraged in less favorable areas of the tree. In the model, high cross-diffusion also resulted in increased activity in honey bees which manifested itself in the field in terms of accelerations, decelerations, and changes in direction, indicating rapid redistribution of densities to an equilibrium state. Empirical analysis of the number of honey bees and other visitors in 2-min intervals to almond trees shows a negative relationship, indicating cross-diffusion effects in nature with the potential to increase movement to a different tree with a more favorable environment, potentially increasing nut production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Case-based explanation of non-case-based learning methods.

PubMed Central

Caruana, R.; Kangarloo, H.; Dionisio, J. D.; Sinha, U.; Johnson, D.

1999-01-01

We show how to generate case-based explanations for non-case-based learning methods such as artificial neural nets or decision trees. The method uses the trained model (e.g., the neural net or the decision tree) as a distance metric to determine which cases in the training set are most similar to the case that needs to be explained. This approach is well suited to medical domains, where it is important to understand predictions made by complex machine learning models, and where training and clinical practice makes users adept at case interpretation. PMID:10566351

Seeing the forest and the trees: multilevel models reveal both species and community patterns

Treesearch

Michelle M. Jackson; Monica G. Turner; Scott M. Pearson; Anthony R. Ives

2012-01-01

Studies designed to understand species distributions and community assemblages typically use separate analytical approaches (e.g., logistic regression and ordination) to model the distribution of individual species and to relate community composition to environmental variation. Multilevel models (MLMs) offer a promising strategy for integrating species and community-...

A spatially explicit approach to the study of socio-demographic inequality in the spatial distribution of trees across Boston neighborhoods

PubMed Central

Duncan, Dustin T.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kum, Susan; Aldstadt, Jared; Piras, Gianfranco; Matthews, Stephen A.; Arbia, Giuseppe; Castro, Marcia C.; White, Kellee; Williams, David R.

2017-01-01

The racial/ethnic and income composition of neighborhoods often influences local amenities, including the potential spatial distribution of trees, which are important for population health and community wellbeing, particularly in urban areas. This ecological study used spatial analytical methods to assess the relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. minority racial/ethnic composition and poverty) and tree density at the census tact level in Boston, Massachusetts (US). We examined spatial autocorrelation with the Global Moran’s I for all study variables and in the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression residuals as well as computed Spearman correlations non-adjusted and adjusted for spatial autocorrelation between socio-demographic characteristics and tree density. Next, we fit traditional regressions (i.e. OLS regression models) and spatial regressions (i.e. spatial simultaneous autoregressive models), as appropriate. We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation for all neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (Global Moran’s I range from 0.24 to 0.86, all P=0.001), for tree density (Global Moran’s I=0.452, P=0.001), and in the OLS regression residuals (Global Moran’s I range from 0.32 to 0.38, all P<0.001). Therefore, we fit the spatial simultaneous autoregressive models. There was a negative correlation between neighborhood percent non-Hispanic Black and tree density (rS=−0.19; conventional P-value=0.016; spatially adjusted P-value=0.299) as well as a negative correlation between predominantly non-Hispanic Black (over 60% Black) neighborhoods and tree density (rS=−0.18; conventional P-value=0.019; spatially adjusted P-value=0.180). While the conventional OLS regression model found a marginally significant inverse relationship between Black neighborhoods and tree density, we found no statistically significant relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic composition and tree density in the spatial regression models. Methodologically, our study suggests the need to take into account spatial autocorrelation as findings/conclusions can change when the spatial autocorrelation is ignored. Substantively, our findings suggest no need for policy intervention vis-à-vis trees in Boston, though we hasten to add that replication studies, and more nuanced data on tree quality, age and diversity are needed. PMID:29354668

Scalable Regression Tree Learning on Hadoop using OpenPlanet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, Wei; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor

As scientific and engineering domains attempt to effectively analyze the deluge of data arriving from sensors and instruments, machine learning is becoming a key data mining tool to build prediction models. Regression tree is a popular learning model that combines decision trees and linear regression to forecast numerical target variables based on a set of input features. Map Reduce is well suited for addressing such data intensive learning applications, and a proprietary regression tree algorithm, PLANET, using MapReduce has been proposed earlier. In this paper, we describe an open source implement of this algorithm, OpenPlanet, on the Hadoop framework usingmore » a hybrid approach. Further, we evaluate the performance of OpenPlanet using realworld datasets from the Smart Power Grid domain to perform energy use forecasting, and propose tuning strategies of Hadoop parameters to improve the performance of the default configuration by 75% for a training dataset of 17 million tuples on a 64-core Hadoop cluster on FutureGrid.« less

Towards new approaches in phenological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Rawel, Harshard M.; Homann, Thomas

2014-05-01

Modelling of phenological stages is based on temperature sums for many decades, describing both the chilling and the forcing requirement of woody plants until the beginning of leafing or flowering. Parts of this approach go back to Reaumur (1735), who originally proposed the concept of growing degree-days. Now, there is a growing body of opinion that asks for new methods in phenological modelling and more in-depth studies on dormancy release of woody plants. This requirement is easily understandable if we consider the wide application of phenological models, which can even affect the results of climate models. To this day, in phenological models still a number of parameters need to be optimised on observations, although some basic physiological knowledge of the chilling and forcing requirement of plants is already considered in these approaches (semi-mechanistic models). Limiting, for a fundamental improvement of these models, is the lack of knowledge about the course of dormancy in woody plants, which cannot be directly observed and which is also insufficiently described in the literature. Modern metabolomic methods provide a solution for this problem and allow both, the validation of currently used phenological models as well as the development of mechanistic approaches. In order to develop this kind of models, changes of metabolites (concentration, temporal course) must be set in relation to the variability of environmental (steering) parameters (weather, day length, etc.). This necessarily requires multi-year (3-5 yr.) and high-resolution (weekly probes between autumn and spring) data. The feasibility of this approach has already been tested in a 3-year pilot-study on sweet cherries. Our suggested methodology is not only limited to the flowering of fruit trees, it can be also applied to tree species of the natural vegetation, where even greater deficits in phenological modelling exist.

Using the TIMS to estimate evapotranspiration from a forest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teskey, Robert

1991-01-01

The main goals were: (1) to characterize the evapotranspiration (Et) of two forested watersheds using direct measurement techniques, and (2) to evaluate if remotely sensed surface temperatures could be used to estimate Et from the same watersheds. Two independent approaches for estimating the Et from watersheds were used. The first was derived using the Penman-Monteith Equation. This model requires the direct measurement of the microclimate of the site as well as biological measurements, i.e., stomatal conductance to water vapor and the leaf area of the stand. The primary limitation of this approach is that the measurement of stomatal conductance is time consuming, and in large trees, access to the foliage is difficult so the sample must be limited to the small number of trees. In the study, the sample was limited to the trees which could be measured from a single tower in each stand.

Object-based class modelling for multi-scale riparian forest habitat mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Thomas; Lang, Stefan

2015-05-01

Object-based class modelling allows for mapping complex, hierarchical habitat systems. The riparian zone, including forests, represents such a complex ecosystem. Forests within riparian zones are biologically high productive and characterized by a rich biodiversity; thus considered of high community interest with an imperative to be protected and regularly monitored. Satellite earth observation (EO) provides tools for capturing the current state of forest habitats such as forest composition including intermixture of non-native tree species. Here we present a semi-automated object based image analysis (OBIA) approach for the mapping of riparian forests by applying class modelling of habitats based on the European Nature Information System (EUNIS) habitat classifications and the European Habitats Directive (HabDir) Annex 1. A very high resolution (VHR) WorldView-2 satellite image provided the required spatial and spectral details for a multi-scale image segmentation and rule-base composition to generate a six-level hierarchical representation of riparian forest habitats. Thereby habitats were hierarchically represented within an image object hierarchy as forest stands, stands of homogenous tree species and single trees represented by sunlit tree crowns. 522 EUNIS level 3 (EUNIS-3) habitat patches with a mean patch size (MPS) of 12,349.64 m2 were modelled from 938 forest stand patches (MPS = 6868.20 m2) and 43,742 tree stand patches (MPS = 140.79 m2). The delineation quality of the modelled EUNIS-3 habitats (focal level) was quantitatively assessed to an expert-based visual interpretation showing a mean deviation of 11.71%.

A Nonstationary Markov Model Detects Directional Evolution in Hymenopteran Morphology.

PubMed

Klopfstein, Seraina; Vilhelmsen, Lars; Ronquist, Fredrik

2015-11-01

Directional evolution has played an important role in shaping the morphological, ecological, and molecular diversity of life. However, standard substitution models assume stationarity of the evolutionary process over the time scale examined, thus impeding the study of directionality. Here we explore a simple, nonstationary model of evolution for discrete data, which assumes that the state frequencies at the root differ from the equilibrium frequencies of the homogeneous evolutionary process along the rest of the tree (i.e., the process is nonstationary, nonreversible, but homogeneous). Within this framework, we develop a Bayesian approach for testing directional versus stationary evolution using a reversible-jump algorithm. Simulations show that when only data from extant taxa are available, the success in inferring directionality is strongly dependent on the evolutionary rate, the shape of the tree, the relative branch lengths, and the number of taxa. Given suitable evolutionary rates (0.1-0.5 expected substitutions between root and tips), accounting for directionality improves tree inference and often allows correct rooting of the tree without the use of an outgroup. As an empirical test, we apply our method to study directional evolution in hymenopteran morphology. We focus on three character systems: wing veins, muscles, and sclerites. We find strong support for a trend toward loss of wing veins and muscles, while stationarity cannot be ruled out for sclerites. Adding fossil and time information in a total-evidence dating approach, we show that accounting for directionality results in more precise estimates not only of the ancestral state at the root of the tree, but also of the divergence times. Our model relaxes the assumption of stationarity and reversibility by adding a minimum of additional parameters, and is thus well suited to studying the nature of the evolutionary process in data sets of limited size, such as morphology and ecology. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Application of Infrared and Raman Spectroscopy for the Identification of Disease Resistant Trees.

PubMed

Conrad, Anna O; Bonello, Pierluigi

2015-01-01

New approaches for identifying disease resistant trees are needed as the incidence of diseases caused by non-native and invasive pathogens increases. These approaches must be rapid, reliable, cost-effective, and should have the potential to be adapted for high-throughput screening or phenotyping. Within the context of trees and tree diseases, we summarize vibrational spectroscopic and chemometric methods that have been used to distinguish between groups of trees which vary in disease susceptibility or other important characteristics based on chemical fingerprint data. We also provide specific examples from the literature of where these approaches have been used successfully. Finally, we discuss future application of these approaches for wide-scale screening and phenotyping efforts aimed at identifying disease resistant trees and managing forest diseases.

A New Approach to Strategy Formulation: Opening the Black Box.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyd, Lynn; Gupta, Mahesh; Sussman, Lyle

2001-01-01

An approach to teaching business strategy formulation uses the thinking process tools of the theory of constraints: current reality tree for situational analysis, evaporating cloud and future reality tree to identify change outcomes, and prerequisite tree and transition tree to identify implementation strategies. (SK)

Improvement of water and light availability after thinning at a xeric site: which matters more? A dual isotope approach.

PubMed

Giuggiola, Arnaud; Ogée, Jérôme; Rigling, Andreas; Gessler, Arthur; Bugmann, Harald; Treydte, Kerstin

2016-04-01

Thinning fosters individual tree growth by increasing the availability of water, light and nutrients. At sites where water rather than light is limiting, thinning also enhances soil evaporation and might not be beneficial. Detailed knowledge of the short- to long-term physiological response underlying the growth responses to thinning is crucial for the management of forests already suffering from recurrent drought-induced dieback. We applied a dual isotope approach together with mechanistic isotope models to study the physiological processes underlying long-term growth enhancement of heavily thinned Pinus sylvestris in a xeric forest in Switzerland. This approach allowed us to identify and disentangle thinning-induced changes in stomatal conductance and assimilation rate. At our xeric study site, the increase in stomatal conductance far outweighed the increase in assimilation, implying that growth release in heavily thinned trees is primarily driven by enhanced water availability rather than increased light availability. We conclude that in forests with relatively isohydric species (drought avoiders) that are growing close to their physiological limits, thinning is recommended to maintain a less negative water balance and thus foster tree growth, and ultimately the survival of forest trees under drought. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

2015-06-01

Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

Diversity Dynamics in Nymphalidae Butterflies: Effect of Phylogenetic Uncertainty on Diversification Rate Shift Estimates

PubMed Central

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution. PMID:25830910

Diversity dynamics in Nymphalidae butterflies: effect of phylogenetic uncertainty on diversification rate shift estimates.

PubMed

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.

CellTree: an R/bioconductor package to infer the hierarchical structure of cell populations from single-cell RNA-seq data.

PubMed

duVerle, David A; Yotsukura, Sohiya; Nomura, Seitaro; Aburatani, Hiroyuki; Tsuda, Koji

2016-09-13

Single-cell RNA sequencing is fast becoming one the standard method for gene expression measurement, providing unique insights into cellular processes. A number of methods, based on general dimensionality reduction techniques, have been suggested to help infer and visualise the underlying structure of cell populations from single-cell expression levels, yet their models generally lack proper biological grounding and struggle at identifying complex differentiation paths. Here we introduce cellTree: an R/Bioconductor package that uses a novel statistical approach, based on document analysis techniques, to produce tree structures outlining the hierarchical relationship between single-cell samples, while identifying latent groups of genes that can provide biological insights. With cellTree, we provide experimentalists with an easy-to-use tool, based on statistically and biologically-sound algorithms, to efficiently explore and visualise single-cell RNA data. The cellTree package is publicly available in the online Bionconductor repository at: http://bioconductor.org/packages/cellTree/ .

Finding structure in data using multivariate tree boosting

PubMed Central

Miller, Patrick J.; Lubke, Gitta H.; McArtor, Daniel B.; Bergeman, C. S.

2016-01-01

Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles such as random forests (Strobl, Malley, & Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding structure, but are difficult to interpret with multiple outcome variables which are often of interest in psychology. To find and interpret structure in data sets with multiple outcomes and many predictors (possibly exceeding the sample size), we introduce a multivariate extension to a decision tree ensemble method called gradient boosted regression trees (Friedman, 2001). Our extension, multivariate tree boosting, is a method for nonparametric regression that is useful for identifying important predictors, detecting predictors with nonlinear effects and interactions without specification of such effects, and for identifying predictors that cause two or more outcome variables to covary. We provide the R package ‘mvtboost’ to estimate, tune, and interpret the resulting model, which extends the implementation of univariate boosting in the R package ‘gbm’ (Ridgeway et al., 2015) to continuous, multivariate outcomes. To illustrate the approach, we analyze predictors of psychological well-being (Ryff & Keyes, 1995). Simulations verify that our approach identifies predictors with nonlinear effects and achieves high prediction accuracy, exceeding or matching the performance of (penalized) multivariate multiple regression and multivariate decision trees over a wide range of conditions. PMID:27918183

Advancing data reuse in phyloinformatics using an ontology-driven Semantic Web approach.

PubMed

Panahiazar, Maryam; Sheth, Amit P; Ranabahu, Ajith; Vos, Rutger A; Leebens-Mack, Jim

2013-01-01

Phylogenetic analyses can resolve historical relationships among genes, organisms or higher taxa. Understanding such relationships can elucidate a wide range of biological phenomena, including, for example, the importance of gene and genome duplications in the evolution of gene function, the role of adaptation as a driver of diversification, or the evolutionary consequences of biogeographic shifts. Phyloinformaticists are developing data standards, databases and communication protocols (e.g. Application Programming Interfaces, APIs) to extend the accessibility of gene trees, species trees, and the metadata necessary to interpret these trees, thus enabling researchers across the life sciences to reuse phylogenetic knowledge. Specifically, Semantic Web technologies are being developed to make phylogenetic knowledge interpretable by web agents, thereby enabling intelligently automated, high-throughput reuse of results generated by phylogenetic research. This manuscript describes an ontology-driven, semantic problem-solving environment for phylogenetic analyses and introduces artefacts that can promote phyloinformatic efforts to promote accessibility of trees and underlying metadata. PhylOnt is an extensible ontology with concepts describing tree types and tree building methodologies including estimation methods, models and programs. In addition we present the PhylAnt platform for annotating scientific articles and NeXML files with PhylOnt concepts. The novelty of this work is the annotation of NeXML files and phylogenetic related documents with PhylOnt Ontology. This approach advances data reuse in phyloinformatics.

Estimating forest species composition using a multi-sensor approach

Treesearch

P.T. Wolter

2009-01-01

The magnitude, duration, and frequency of forest disturbance caused by the spruce budworm and forest tent caterpillar has increased over the last century due to a shift in forest species composition linked to historical fire suppression, forest management, and pesticide application that has fostered the increase in dominance of host tree species. Modeling approaches...

Advances in Estimating Current and Future Effects of Climate and Management on Forest Ecosystem Carbon and Water Dynamics at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.; Still, C. J.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Buotte, P.; Hanson, C. V.

2017-12-01

As we examine the integrated effects of climate variability, atmospheric CO2, and land management actions on terrestrial carbon and water processes within regions, and evaluate mitigation and adaptation options, we want our analysis to be as accurate as possible to reduce the risk of negative impacts from management decisions. The use of global land models at regional scales requires modifications for realistic projections. Model evaluation reveals knowledge and data gaps in species sensitivities to climate extremes and responses to land use change and management actions such as restoration. For example, a combination of sapflux and AmeriFlux tower measurements identifies seasonal shifts in the proportion of water vapor exchange that is due to tree transpiration, as well as changes in tree water-use efficiency associated with climate variation. Thermal measurements from an unmanned aerial system quantify canopy temperatures reached during extreme heat events, as well as tree-to-tree thermal variations, which can be related to transpiration dynamics. Diagnosis of land model performance across climate/vegetation gradients includes the combination of atmospheric CO2/CO/H2O observations from aircraft, a tall tower network, and a mobile platform, combined with inverse modeling. This approach identified an ecoregion where the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) underestimated net ecosystem production by 28%, suggesting model challenges in high productivity forests with high soil nitrogen and deep organic soils. We use land-model output of net ecosystem production, harvest and fire emissions to estimate net ecosystem carbon balance, which is input to a Life-Cycle Assessment of wood product use to estimate net carbon emissions to the atmosphere for harvest scenarios and bioenergy production. Such robust and interdisciplinary approaches are needed to more accurately quantify impacts on ecosystems and "what the atmosphere sees" in terms of greenhouse gas sources and impacts on ecosystems across landscapes and regions.

Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in bovines using decision tree, logistic regression and GIS query approaches for Brazil.

PubMed

Bennema, S C; Molento, M B; Scholte, R G; Carvalho, O S; Pritsch, I

2017-11-01

Fascioliasis is a condition caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica. In this paper, the spatial distribution of F. hepatica in bovines in Brazil was modelled using a decision tree approach and a logistic regression, combined with a geographic information system (GIS) query. In the decision tree and the logistic model, isothermality had the strongest influence on disease prevalence. Also, the 50-year average precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year was included as a risk factor, having a negative influence on the parasite prevalence. The risk maps developed using both techniques, showed a predicted higher prevalence mainly in the South of Brazil. The prediction performance seemed to be high, but both techniques failed to reach a high accuracy in predicting the medium and high prevalence classes to the entire country. The GIS query map, based on the range of isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of warmest quarter of the year, altitude and the average dailyland surface temperature, showed a possibility of presence of F. hepatica in a very large area. The risk maps produced using these methods can be used to focus activities of animal and public health programmes, even on non-evaluated F. hepatica areas.

Implementation of a Goal-Based Systems Engineering Process Using the Systems Modeling Language (SysML)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breckenridge, Jonathan T.; Johnson, Stephen B.

2013-01-01

This paper describes the core framework used to implement a Goal-Function Tree (GFT) based systems engineering process using the Systems Modeling Language. It defines a set of principles built upon by the theoretical approach described in the InfoTech 2013 ISHM paper titled "Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management" presented by Dr. Stephen B. Johnson. Using the SysML language, the principles in this paper describe the expansion of the SysML language as a baseline in order to: hierarchically describe a system, describe that system functionally within success space, and allocate detection mechanisms to success functions for system protection.

Phytomonitoring of chlorinated ethenes in trees: a four-year study of seasonal chemodynamics in planta.

PubMed

Limmer, Matt A; Holmes, Amanda J; Burken, Joel G

2014-09-16

Long-term monitoring (LTM) of groundwater remedial projects is costly and time-consuming, particularly when using phytoremediation, a long-term remedial approach. The use of trees as sensors of groundwater contamination (i.e., phytoscreening) has been widely described, although the use of trees to provide long-term monitoring of such plumes (phytomonitoring) has been more limited due to unexplained variability of contaminant concentrations in trees. To assess this variability, we developed an in planta sampling method to obtain high-frequency measurements of chlorinated ethenes in oak (Quercus rubra) and baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) trees growing above a contaminated plume during a 4-year trial. The data set revealed that contaminant concentrations increased rapidly with transpiration in the spring and decreased in the fall, resulting in perchloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) sapwood concentrations an order of magnitude higher in late summer as compared to winter. Heartwood PCE and TCE concentrations were more buffered against seasonal effects. Rainfall events caused negligible dilution of contaminant concentrations in trees after precipitation events. Modeling evapotranspiration potential from meteorological data and comparing the modeled uptake and transport with the 4 years of high frequency data provides a foundation to advance the implementation of phytomonitoring and improved understanding of plant contaminant interactions.

Impact of roadside tree lines on indoor concentrations of traffic-derived particulate matter.

PubMed

Maher, Barbara A; Ahmed, Imad A M; Davison, Brian; Karloukovski, Vassil; Clarke, Robert

2013-12-03

Exposure to airborne particulate pollution is associated with premature mortality and a range of inflammatory illnesses, linked to toxic components within the particulate matter (PM) assemblage. The effectiveness of trees in reducing urban PM10 concentrations is intensely debated. Modeling studies indicate PM10 reductions from as low as 1% to as high as ~60%. Empirical data, especially at the local scale, are rare. Here, we use conventional PM10 monitoring along with novel, inexpensive magnetic measurements of television screen swabs to measure changes in PM10 concentrations inside a row of roadside houses, after temporarily installing a curbside line of young birch trees. Independently, the two approaches identify >50% reductions in measured PM levels inside those houses screened by the temporary tree line. Electron microscopy analyses show that leaf-captured PM is concentrated in agglomerations around leaf hairs and within the leaf microtopography. Iron-rich, ultrafine, spherical particles, probably combustion-derived, are abundant, form a particular hazard to health, and likely contribute much of the measured magnetic remanences. Leaf magnetic measurements show that PM capture occurs on both the road-proximal and -distal sides of the trees. The efficacy of roadside trees for mitigation of PM health hazard might be seriously underestimated in some current atmospheric models.

Venous tree separation in the liver: graph partitioning using a non-ising model.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Thomas; Kaftan, Jens N; Schuh, Andreas; Tietjen, Christian; Soza, Grzegorz; Aach, Til

2011-01-01

Entangled tree-like vascular systems are commonly found in the body (e.g., in the peripheries and lungs). Separation of these systems in medical images may be formulated as a graph partitioning problem given an imperfect segmentation and specification of the tree roots. In this work, we show that the ubiquitous Ising-model approaches (e.g., Graph Cuts, Random Walker) are not appropriate for tackling this problem and propose a novel method based on recursive minimal paths for doing so. To motivate our method, we focus on the intertwined portal and hepatic venous systems in the liver. Separation of these systems is critical for liver intervention planning, in particular when resection is involved. We apply our method to 34 clinical datasets, each containing well over a hundred vessel branches, demonstrating its effectiveness.

Modelling and predicting the spatial distribution of tree root density in heterogeneous forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Mao, Zhun; Saint-André, Laurent; Bourrier, Franck; Stokes, Alexia; Cordonnier, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background and Aims In mountain ecosystems, predicting root density in three dimensions (3-D) is highly challenging due to the spatial heterogeneity of forest communities. This study presents a simple and semi-mechanistic model, named ChaMRoots, that predicts root interception density (RID, number of roots m–2). ChaMRoots hypothesizes that RID at a given point is affected by the presence of roots from surrounding trees forming a polygon shape. Methods The model comprises three sub-models for predicting: (1) the spatial heterogeneity – RID of the finest roots in the top soil layer as a function of tree basal area at breast height, and the distance between the tree and a given point; (2) the diameter spectrum – the distribution of RID as a function of root diameter up to 50 mm thick; and (3) the vertical profile – the distribution of RID as a function of soil depth. The RID data used for fitting in the model were measured in two uneven-aged mountain forest ecosystems in the French Alps. These sites differ in tree density and species composition. Key Results In general, the validation of each sub-model indicated that all sub-models of ChaMRoots had good fits. The model achieved a highly satisfactory compromise between the number of aerial input parameters and the fit to the observed data. Conclusions The semi-mechanistic ChaMRoots model focuses on the spatial distribution of root density at the tree cluster scale, in contrast to the majority of published root models, which function at the level of the individual. Based on easy-to-measure characteristics, simple forest inventory protocols and three sub-models, it achieves a good compromise between the complexity of the case study area and that of the global model structure. ChaMRoots can be easily coupled with spatially explicit individual-based forest dynamics models and thus provides a highly transferable approach for modelling 3-D root spatial distribution in complex forest ecosystems. PMID:26173892

Potential Effects of Drought on Tree Dieback in Great Britain and Implications for Forest Management in Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jianjun; Berry, Pam

2017-04-01

The drought and heat stress has alerted the composition, structure and biogeography of forests globally, whilst the projected severe and widespread droughts are potentially increasing. This challenges the sustainable forest management to better cope with future climate and maintain the forest ecosystem functions and services. Many studies have investigated the climate change impacts on forest ecosystem but less considered the climate extremes like drought. In this study, we implement a dynamic ecosystem model based on a version of LPJ-GUESS parameterized with European tree species and apply to Great Britain at a finer spatial resolution of 5*5 km. The model runs for the baseline from 1961 to 2011 and projects to the latter 21st century using 100 climate scenarios generated from MaRIUS project to tackle the climate model uncertainty. We will show the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem and vegetation transition in Great Britain by comparing the modelled conditions in the 2030s and the 2080s relative to the baseline. In particular, by analyzing the modelled tree mortality, we will show the tree dieback patterns in response to drought for various species, and assess their drought vulnerability across Great Britain. We also use species distribution modelling to project the suitable climate space for selected tree species using the same climate scenarios. Aided by these two modelling approaches and based on the corresponding modelling results, we will discuss the implications for adaptation strategy for forest management, especially in extreme drought conditions. The gained knowledge and lessons for Great Britain are considered to be transferable in many other regions.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prokaryotic evolution and the tree of life are two different things

PubMed Central

Bapteste, Eric; O'Malley, Maureen A; Beiko, Robert G; Ereshefsky, Marc; Gogarten, J Peter; Franklin-Hall, Laura; Lapointe, François-Joseph; Dupré, John; Dagan, Tal; Boucher, Yan; Martin, William

2009-01-01

Background The concept of a tree of life is prevalent in the evolutionary literature. It stems from attempting to obtain a grand unified natural system that reflects a recurrent process of species and lineage splittings for all forms of life. Traditionally, the discipline of systematics operates in a similar hierarchy of bifurcating (sometimes multifurcating) categories. The assumption of a universal tree of life hinges upon the process of evolution being tree-like throughout all forms of life and all of biological time. In multicellular eukaryotes, the molecular mechanisms and species-level population genetics of variation do indeed mainly cause a tree-like structure over time. In prokaryotes, they do not. Prokaryotic evolution and the tree of life are two different things, and we need to treat them as such, rather than extrapolating from macroscopic life to prokaryotes. In the following we will consider this circumstance from philosophical, scientific, and epistemological perspectives, surmising that phylogeny opted for a single model as a holdover from the Modern Synthesis of evolution. Results It was far easier to envision and defend the concept of a universal tree of life before we had data from genomes. But the belief that prokaryotes are related by such a tree has now become stronger than the data to support it. The monistic concept of a single universal tree of life appears, in the face of genome data, increasingly obsolete. This traditional model to describe evolution is no longer the most scientifically productive position to hold, because of the plurality of evolutionary patterns and mechanisms involved. Forcing a single bifurcating scheme onto prokaryotic evolution disregards the non-tree-like nature of natural variation among prokaryotes and accounts for only a minority of observations from genomes. Conclusion Prokaryotic evolution and the tree of life are two different things. Hence we will briefly set out alternative models to the tree of life to study their evolution. Ultimately, the plurality of evolutionary patterns and mechanisms involved, such as the discontinuity of the process of evolution across the prokaryote-eukaryote divide, summons forth a pluralistic approach to studying evolution. Reviewers This article was reviewed by Ford Doolittle, John Logsdon and Nicolas Galtier. PMID:19788731

Prokaryotic evolution and the tree of life are two different things.

PubMed

Bapteste, Eric; O'Malley, Maureen A; Beiko, Robert G; Ereshefsky, Marc; Gogarten, J Peter; Franklin-Hall, Laura; Lapointe, François-Joseph; Dupré, John; Dagan, Tal; Boucher, Yan; Martin, William

2009-09-29

The concept of a tree of life is prevalent in the evolutionary literature. It stems from attempting to obtain a grand unified natural system that reflects a recurrent process of species and lineage splittings for all forms of life. Traditionally, the discipline of systematics operates in a similar hierarchy of bifurcating (sometimes multifurcating) categories. The assumption of a universal tree of life hinges upon the process of evolution being tree-like throughout all forms of life and all of biological time. In multicellular eukaryotes, the molecular mechanisms and species-level population genetics of variation do indeed mainly cause a tree-like structure over time. In prokaryotes, they do not. Prokaryotic evolution and the tree of life are two different things, and we need to treat them as such, rather than extrapolating from macroscopic life to prokaryotes. In the following we will consider this circumstance from philosophical, scientific, and epistemological perspectives, surmising that phylogeny opted for a single model as a holdover from the Modern Synthesis of evolution. It was far easier to envision and defend the concept of a universal tree of life before we had data from genomes. But the belief that prokaryotes are related by such a tree has now become stronger than the data to support it. The monistic concept of a single universal tree of life appears, in the face of genome data, increasingly obsolete. This traditional model to describe evolution is no longer the most scientifically productive position to hold, because of the plurality of evolutionary patterns and mechanisms involved. Forcing a single bifurcating scheme onto prokaryotic evolution disregards the non-tree-like nature of natural variation among prokaryotes and accounts for only a minority of observations from genomes. Prokaryotic evolution and the tree of life are two different things. Hence we will briefly set out alternative models to the tree of life to study their evolution. Ultimately, the plurality of evolutionary patterns and mechanisms involved, such as the discontinuity of the process of evolution across the prokaryote-eukaryote divide, summons forth a pluralistic approach to studying evolution. This article was reviewed by Ford Doolittle, John Logsdon and Nicolas Galtier.

Performance analysis of a dual-tree algorithm for computing spatial distance histograms

PubMed Central

Chen, Shaoping; Tu, Yi-Cheng; Xia, Yuni

2011-01-01

Many scientific and engineering fields produce large volume of spatiotemporal data. The storage, retrieval, and analysis of such data impose great challenges to database systems design. Analysis of scientific spatiotemporal data often involves computing functions of all point-to-point interactions. One such analytics, the Spatial Distance Histogram (SDH), is of vital importance to scientific discovery. Recently, algorithms for efficient SDH processing in large-scale scientific databases have been proposed. These algorithms adopt a recursive tree-traversing strategy to process point-to-point distances in the visited tree nodes in batches, thus require less time when compared to the brute-force approach where all pairwise distances have to be computed. Despite the promising experimental results, the complexity of such algorithms has not been thoroughly studied. In this paper, we present an analysis of such algorithms based on a geometric modeling approach. The main technique is to transform the analysis of point counts into a problem of quantifying the area of regions where pairwise distances can be processed in batches by the algorithm. From the analysis, we conclude that the number of pairwise distances that are left to be processed decreases exponentially with more levels of the tree visited. This leads to the proof of a time complexity lower than the quadratic time needed for a brute-force algorithm and builds the foundation for a constant-time approximate algorithm. Our model is also general in that it works for a wide range of point spatial distributions, histogram types, and space-partitioning options in building the tree. PMID:21804753

Tree analysis modeling of the associations between PHQ-9 depressive symptoms and doctor diagnosis of depression in primary care.

PubMed

Chin, Weng-Yee; Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Dowrick, Christopher; Arroll, Bruce; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2018-04-26

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between patient self-reported Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) symptoms and doctor diagnosis of depression using a tree analysis approach. This was a secondary analysis on a dataset obtained from 10 179 adult primary care patients and 59 primary care physicians (PCPs) across Hong Kong. Patients completed a waiting room survey collecting data on socio-demographics and the PHQ-9. Blinded doctors documented whether they thought the patient had depression. Data were analyzed using multiple logistic regression and conditional inference decision tree modeling. PCPs diagnosed 594 patients with depression. Logistic regression identified gender, age, employment status, past history of depression, family history of mental illness and recent doctor visit as factors associated with a depression diagnosis. Tree analyses revealed different pathways of association between PHQ-9 symptoms and depression diagnosis for patients with and without past depression. The PHQ-9 symptom model revealed low mood, sense of worthlessness, fatigue, sleep disturbance and functional impairment as early classifiers. The PHQ-9 total score model revealed cut-off scores of >12 and >15 were most frequently associated with depression diagnoses in patients with and without past depression. A past history of depression is the most significant factor associated with the diagnosis of depression. PCPs appear to utilize a hypothetical-deductive problem-solving approach incorporating pre-test probability, with different associated factors for patients with and without past depression. Diagnostic thresholds may be too low for patients with past depression and too high for those without, potentially leading to over and under diagnosis of depression.

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.

2016-06-01

We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

Microscopic saw mark analysis: an empirical approach.

PubMed

Love, Jennifer C; Derrick, Sharon M; Wiersema, Jason M; Peters, Charles

2015-01-01

Microscopic saw mark analysis is a well published and generally accepted qualitative analytical method. However, little research has focused on identifying and mitigating potential sources of error associated with the method. The presented study proposes the use of classification trees and random forest classifiers as an optimal, statistically sound approach to mitigate the potential for error of variability and outcome error in microscopic saw mark analysis. The statistical model was applied to 58 experimental saw marks created with four types of saws. The saw marks were made in fresh human femurs obtained through anatomical gift and were analyzed using a Keyence digital microscope. The statistical approach weighed the variables based on discriminatory value and produced decision trees with an associated outcome error rate of 8.62-17.82%. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

What We Talk About When We Talk About Drought: Tree-ring Perspectives on Model-Data Comparisons in Hydroclimate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Comparative analyses of paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations can provide valuable insights into past and future climate events. Conducting meaningful and quantitative comparisons, however, can be difficult for a variety of reasons. Here, we use tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions to discuss some best practices for paleoclimate-model comparisons, highlighting recent studies that have successfully used this approach. These analyses have improved our understanding of the Medieval-era megadroughts, ocean forcing of large scale drought patterns, and even climate change contributions to future drought risk. Additional work is needed, however, to better reconcile and formalize uncertainties across observed, modeled, and reconstructed variables. In this regard, process based forward models of proxy-systems will likely be a critical tool moving forward.

Exact solutions for species tree inference from discordant gene trees.

PubMed

Chang, Wen-Chieh; Górecki, Paweł; Eulenstein, Oliver

2013-10-01

Phylogenetic analysis has to overcome the grant challenge of inferring accurate species trees from evolutionary histories of gene families (gene trees) that are discordant with the species tree along whose branches they have evolved. Two well studied approaches to cope with this challenge are to solve either biologically informed gene tree parsimony (GTP) problems under gene duplication, gene loss, and deep coalescence, or the classic RF supertree problem that does not rely on any biological model. Despite the potential of these problems to infer credible species trees, they are NP-hard. Therefore, these problems are addressed by heuristics that typically lack any provable accuracy and precision. We describe fast dynamic programming algorithms that solve the GTP problems and the RF supertree problem exactly, and demonstrate that our algorithms can solve instances with data sets consisting of as many as 22 taxa. Extensions of our algorithms can also report the number of all optimal species trees, as well as the trees themselves. To better asses the quality of the resulting species trees that best fit the given gene trees, we also compute the worst case species trees, their numbers, and optimization score for each of the computational problems. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our exact algorithms using empirical and simulated data sets, and analyze the quality of heuristic solutions for the studied problems by contrasting them with our exact solutions.

A Tree Based Broadcast Scheme for (m, k)-firm Real-Time Stream in Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Park, HoSung; Kim, Beom-Su; Kim, Kyong Hoon; Shah, Babar; Kim, Ki-Il

2017-11-09

Recently, various unicast routing protocols have been proposed to deliver measured data from the sensor node to the sink node within the predetermined deadline in wireless sensor networks. In parallel with their approaches, some applications demand the specific service, which is based on broadcast to all nodes within the deadline, the feasible real-time traffic model and improvements in energy efficiency. However, current protocols based on either flooding or one-to-one unicast cannot meet the above requirements entirely. Moreover, as far as the authors know, there is no study for the real-time broadcast protocol to support the application-specific traffic model in WSN yet. Based on the above analysis, in this paper, we propose a new ( m , k )-firm-based Real-time Broadcast Protocol (FRBP) by constructing a broadcast tree to satisfy the ( m , k )-firm, which is applicable to the real-time model in resource-constrained WSNs. The broadcast tree in FRBP is constructed by the distance-based priority scheme, whereas energy efficiency is improved by selecting as few as nodes on a tree possible. To overcome the unstable network environment, the recovery scheme invokes rapid partial tree reconstruction in order to designate another node as the parent on a tree according to the measured ( m , k )-firm real-time condition and local states monitoring. Finally, simulation results are given to demonstrate the superiority of FRBP compared to the existing schemes in terms of average deadline missing ratio, average throughput and energy consumption.

New Models for Predicting Diameter at Breast Height from Stump Dimensions

Treesearch

James A. Westfall

2010-01-01

Models to predict dbh from stump dimensions are presented for 18 species groups. Data used to fit the models were collected across thirteen states in the northeastern United States. Primarily because of the presence of multiple measurements from each tree, a mixed-effects modeling approach was used to account for the lack of independence among observations. The...

Inferring species trees from incongruent multi-copy gene trees using the Robinson-Foulds distance

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Constructing species trees from multi-copy gene trees remains a challenging problem in phylogenetics. One difficulty is that the underlying genes can be incongruent due to evolutionary processes such as gene duplication and loss, deep coalescence, or lateral gene transfer. Gene tree estimation errors may further exacerbate the difficulties of species tree estimation. Results We present a new approach for inferring species trees from incongruent multi-copy gene trees that is based on a generalization of the Robinson-Foulds (RF) distance measure to multi-labeled trees (mul-trees). We prove that it is NP-hard to compute the RF distance between two mul-trees; however, it is easy to calculate this distance between a mul-tree and a singly-labeled species tree. Motivated by this, we formulate the RF problem for mul-trees (MulRF) as follows: Given a collection of multi-copy gene trees, find a singly-labeled species tree that minimizes the total RF distance from the input mul-trees. We develop and implement a fast SPR-based heuristic algorithm for the NP-hard MulRF problem. We compare the performance of the MulRF method (available at http://genome.cs.iastate.edu/CBL/MulRF/) with several gene tree parsimony approaches using gene tree simulations that incorporate gene tree error, gene duplications and losses, and/or lateral transfer. The MulRF method produces more accurate species trees than gene tree parsimony approaches. We also demonstrate that the MulRF method infers in minutes a credible plant species tree from a collection of nearly 2,000 gene trees. Conclusions Our new phylogenetic inference method, based on a generalized RF distance, makes it possible to quickly estimate species trees from large genomic data sets. Since the MulRF method, unlike gene tree parsimony, is based on a generic tree distance measure, it is appealing for analyses of genomic data sets, in which many processes such as deep coalescence, recombination, gene duplication and losses as well as phylogenetic error may contribute to gene tree discord. In experiments, the MulRF method estimated species trees accurately and quickly, demonstrating MulRF as an efficient alternative approach for phylogenetic inference from large-scale genomic data sets. PMID:24180377

Merging Multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3 Past-1000 Ensemble Simulations with Tree Ring Proxy Data by Optimal Interpolation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Luo, Yong; Xing, Pei; Nie, Suping; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

Two sets of gridded annual mean surface air temperature in past millennia over the Northern Hemisphere was constructed employing optimal interpolation (OI) method so as to merge the tree ring proxy records with the simulations from CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project). Both the uncertainties in proxy reconstruction and model simulations can be taken into account applying OI algorithm. For better preservation of physical coordinated features and spatial-temporal completeness of climate variability in 7 copies of model results, we perform the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis to truncate the ensemble mean field as the first guess (background field) for OI. 681 temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies are collected and screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and Past Global Changes (PAGES-2k) project. Firstly, two methods (variance matching and linear regression) are employed to calibrate the tree ring chronologies with instrumental data (CRUTEM4v) individually. In addition, we also remove the bias of both the background field and proxy records relative to instrumental dataset. Secondly, time-varying background error covariance matrix (B) and static "observation" error covariance matrix (R) are calculated for OI frame. In our scheme, matrix B was calculated locally, and "observation" error covariance are partially considered in R matrix (the covariance value between the pairs of tree ring sites that are very close to each other would be counted), which is different from the traditional assumption that R matrix should be diagonal. Comparing our results, it turns out that regional averaged series are not sensitive to the selection for calibration methods. The Quantile-Quantile plots indicate regional climatologies based on both methods are tend to be more agreeable with regional reconstruction of PAGES-2k in 20th century warming period than in little ice age (LIA). Lager volcanic cooling response over Asia and Europe in context of recent millennium are detected in our datasets than that revealed in regional reconstruction from PAGES-2k network. Verification experiments have showed that the merging approach really reconcile the proxy data and model ensemble simulations in an optimal way (with smaller errors than both of them). Further research is needed to improve the error estimation on them.

Digression and Value Concatenation to Enable Privacy-Preserving Regression.

PubMed

Li, Xiao-Bai; Sarkar, Sumit

2014-09-01

Regression techniques can be used not only for legitimate data analysis, but also to infer private information about individuals. In this paper, we demonstrate that regression trees, a popular data-analysis and data-mining technique, can be used to effectively reveal individuals' sensitive data. This problem, which we call a "regression attack," has not been addressed in the data privacy literature, and existing privacy-preserving techniques are not appropriate in coping with this problem. We propose a new approach to counter regression attacks. To protect against privacy disclosure, our approach introduces a novel measure, called digression , which assesses the sensitive value disclosure risk in the process of building a regression tree model. Specifically, we develop an algorithm that uses the measure for pruning the tree to limit disclosure of sensitive data. We also propose a dynamic value-concatenation method for anonymizing data, which better preserves data utility than a user-defined generalization scheme commonly used in existing approaches. Our approach can be used for anonymizing both numeric and categorical data. An experimental study is conducted using real-world financial, economic and healthcare data. The results of the experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach is very effective in protecting data privacy while preserving data quality for research and analysis.

Visual preference and ecological assessments for designed alternative brownfield rehabilitations.

PubMed

Lafortezza, Raffaele; Corry, Robert C; Sanesi, Giovanni; Brown, Robert D

2008-11-01

This paper describes an integrative method for quantifying, analyzing, and comparing the effects of alternative rehabilitation approaches with visual preference. The method was applied to a portion of a major industrial area located in southern Italy. Four alternative approaches to rehabilitation (alternative designs) were developed and analyzed. The scenarios consisted of the cleanup of the brownfields plus: (1) the addition of ground cover species; (2) the addition of ground cover species and a few trees randomly distributed; (3) the addition of ground cover species and a few trees in small groups; and (4) the addition of ground cover species and several trees in large groups. The approaches were analyzed and compared to the baseline condition through the use of cost-surface modeling (CSM) and visual preference assessment (VPA). Statistical results showed that alternatives that were more ecologically functional for forest bird species dispersal were also more visually preferable. Some differences were identified based on user groups and location of residence. The results of the study are used to identify implications for enhancing both ecological attributes and visual preferences of rehabilitating landscapes through planning and design.

Quantifying and Mapping the Supply of and Demand for Carbon Storage and Sequestration Service from Urban Trees.

PubMed

Zhao, Chang; Sander, Heather A

2015-01-01

Studies that assess the distribution of benefits provided by ecosystem services across urban areas are increasingly common. Nevertheless, current knowledge of both the supply and demand sides of ecosystem services remains limited, leaving a gap in our understanding of balance between ecosystem service supply and demand that restricts our ability to assess and manage these services. The present study seeks to fill this gap by developing and applying an integrated approach to quantifying the supply and demand of a key ecosystem service, carbon storage and sequestration, at the local level. This approach follows three basic steps: (1) quantifying and mapping service supply based upon Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) processing and allometric models, (2) quantifying and mapping demand for carbon sequestration using an indicator based on local anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and (3) mapping a supply-to-demand ratio. We illustrate this approach using a portion of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA. Our results indicate that 1735.69 million kg carbon are stored by urban trees in our study area. Annually, 33.43 million kg carbon are sequestered by trees, whereas 3087.60 million kg carbon are emitted by human sources. Thus, carbon sequestration service provided by urban trees in the study location play a minor role in combating climate change, offsetting approximately 1% of local anthropogenic carbon emissions per year, although avoided emissions via storage in trees are substantial. Our supply-to-demand ratio map provides insight into the balance between carbon sequestration supply in urban trees and demand for such sequestration at the local level, pinpointing critical locations where higher levels of supply and demand exist. Such a ratio map could help planners and policy makers to assess and manage the supply of and demand for carbon sequestration.

First principles numerical model of avalanche-induced arc discharges in electron-irradiated dielectrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beers, B. L.; Pine, V. W.; Hwang, H. C.; Bloomberg, H. W.; Lin, D. L.; Schmidt, M. J.; Strickland, D. J.

1979-01-01

The model consists of four phases: single electron dynamics, single electron avalanche, negative streamer development, and tree formation. Numerical algorithms and computer code implementations are presented for the first three phases. An approach to developing a code description of fourth phase is discussed. Numerical results are presented for a crude material model of Teflon.

Modeling the regeneration of oak stands in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

Treesearch

Daniel C. Dey; Paul S. Johnson; H.E. Garrett

1996-01-01

This paper describes a method for modeling the regeneration of even-aged oak stands in the Ozark Highlands of southern Missouri. The approach is based on (i) a growth model that is applicable to both oak sprouts and advance reproduction and (ii) a method for probabilistically estimating future size distributions of trees. The...

Gene genealogies for genetic association mapping, with application to Crohn's disease

PubMed Central

Burkett, Kelly M.; Greenwood, Celia M. T.; McNeney, Brad; Graham, Jinko

2013-01-01

A gene genealogy describes relationships among haplotypes sampled from a population. Knowledge of the gene genealogy for a set of haplotypes is useful for estimation of population genetic parameters and it also has potential application in finding disease-predisposing genetic variants. As the true gene genealogy is unknown, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches have been used to sample genealogies conditional on data at multiple genetic markers. We previously implemented an MCMC algorithm to sample from an approximation to the distribution of the gene genealogy conditional on haplotype data. Our approach samples ancestral trees, recombination and mutation rates at a genomic focal point. In this work, we describe how our sampler can be used to find disease-predisposing genetic variants in samples of cases and controls. We use a tree-based association statistic that quantifies the degree to which case haplotypes are more closely related to each other around the focal point than control haplotypes, without relying on a disease model. As the ancestral tree is a latent variable, so is the tree-based association statistic. We show how the sampler can be used to estimate the posterior distribution of the latent test statistic and corresponding latent p-values, which together comprise a fuzzy p-value. We illustrate the approach on a publicly-available dataset from a study of Crohn's disease that consists of genotypes at multiple SNP markers in a small genomic region. We estimate the posterior distribution of the tree-based association statistic and the recombination rate at multiple focal points in the region. Reassuringly, the posterior mean recombination rates estimated at the different focal points are consistent with previously published estimates. The tree-based association approach finds multiple sub-regions where the case haplotypes are more genetically related than the control haplotypes, and that there may be one or multiple disease-predisposing loci. PMID:24348515

Evaluating realized seed dispersal across fragmented tropical landscapes: a two-fold approach using parentage analysis and the neighbourhood model.

PubMed

Ismail, Sascha A; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Ravikanth, Gudasalamani; Kushalappa, Cheppudira G; Uma Shaanker, Ramanan; Kettle, Chris J

2017-05-01

Despite the importance of seed dispersal for survival of plant species in fragmented landscapes, data on seed dispersal at landscape scales remain sparse. Effective seed dispersal among fragments determines recolonization and plant species persistence in such landscapes. We present the first large-scale (216-km 2 ) direct estimates of realized seed dispersal of a high-value timber tree (Dysoxylum malabaricum) across an agro-forest landscape in the Western Ghats, India. Based upon an exhaustive inventory of adult trees and a sample of 488 seedlings all genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci, we estimated realized seed dispersal using parentage analysis and the neighbourhood model. Our estimates found that most realized seed dispersal was within 200 m, which is insufficient to effectively bridge the distances between forest patches. We conclude that using mobility of putative animal dispersers can be misleading when estimating tropical tree species vulnerability to habitat fragmentation. This raises serious concerns about the potential of many tropical trees to recolonize isolated forest patches where high-value tree species have already been removed. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Parametric and non-parametric masking of randomness in sequence alignments can be improved and leads to better resolved trees.

PubMed

Kück, Patrick; Meusemann, Karen; Dambach, Johannes; Thormann, Birthe; von Reumont, Björn M; Wägele, Johann W; Misof, Bernhard

2010-03-31

Methods of alignment masking, which refers to the technique of excluding alignment blocks prior to tree reconstructions, have been successful in improving the signal-to-noise ratio in sequence alignments. However, the lack of formally well defined methods to identify randomness in sequence alignments has prevented a routine application of alignment masking. In this study, we compared the effects on tree reconstructions of the most commonly used profiling method (GBLOCKS) which uses a predefined set of rules in combination with alignment masking, with a new profiling approach (ALISCORE) based on Monte Carlo resampling within a sliding window, using different data sets and alignment methods. While the GBLOCKS approach excludes variable sections above a certain threshold which choice is left arbitrary, the ALISCORE algorithm is free of a priori rating of parameter space and therefore more objective. ALISCORE was successfully extended to amino acids using a proportional model and empirical substitution matrices to score randomness in multiple sequence alignments. A complex bootstrap resampling leads to an even distribution of scores of randomly similar sequences to assess randomness of the observed sequence similarity. Testing performance on real data, both masking methods, GBLOCKS and ALISCORE, helped to improve tree resolution. The sliding window approach was less sensitive to different alignments of identical data sets and performed equally well on all data sets. Concurrently, ALISCORE is capable of dealing with different substitution patterns and heterogeneous base composition. ALISCORE and the most relaxed GBLOCKS gap parameter setting performed best on all data sets. Correspondingly, Neighbor-Net analyses showed the most decrease in conflict. Alignment masking improves signal-to-noise ratio in multiple sequence alignments prior to phylogenetic reconstruction. Given the robust performance of alignment profiling, alignment masking should routinely be used to improve tree reconstructions. Parametric methods of alignment profiling can be easily extended to more complex likelihood based models of sequence evolution which opens the possibility of further improvements.

A metabolomic, geographic, and seasonal analysis of the contribution of pollen-derived adenosine to allergic sensitization.

PubMed

Mueller, Geoffrey A; Thompson, Peter M; DeRose, Eugene F; O'Connell, Thomas M; London, Robert E

2016-12-01

Studies on ragweed and birch pollen extracts suggested that the adenosine content is an important factor in allergic sensitization. However, exposure levels from other pollens and considerations of geographic and seasonal factors have not been evaluated. This study compared the metabolite profile of pollen species important for allergic disease, specifically measured the adenosine content, and evaluated exposure to pollen-derived adenosine. An NMR metabolomics approach was used to measure metabolite concentrations in twenty-six pollen extracts. Pollen count data was analyzed from five cities to model exposure. A principal component analysis of the various metabolites identified by NMR showed that pollen extracts could be differentiated primarily by sugar content: glucose, fructose, sucrose, and myo-inositol. In extracts of 10 mg of pollen/ml, the adenosine was highest for grasses (45 μM) followed by trees (23 μM) and weeds (19 μM). Pollen count data showed that tree pollen was typically 5-10 times the amount of other pollens. At the daily peaks of tree, grass, and weed season the pollen-derived adenosine exposure per day is likely to only be 1.1, 0.11, and 0.12 μg, respectively. Seasonal models of pollen exposure and respiration suggest that it would be a rare event limited to tree pollen season for concentrations of pollen-derived adenosine to approach physiological levels. Sugar content and other metabolites may be useful in classifying pollens. Unless other factors create localized exposures that are very different from these models, pollen-derived adenosine is unlikely to be a major factor in allergic sensitization.

A holistic approach to determine tree structural complexity based on laser scanning data and fractal analysis.

PubMed

Seidel, Dominik

2018-01-01

The three-dimensional forest structure affects many ecosystem functions and services provided by forests. As forests are made of trees it seems reasonable to approach their structure by investigating individual tree structure. Based on three-dimensional point clouds from laser scanning, a newly developed holistic approach is presented that enables to calculate the box dimension as a measure of structural complexity of individual trees using fractal analysis. It was found that the box dimension of trees was significantly different among the tested species, among trees belonging to the same species but exposed to different growing conditions (at gap vs. forest interior) or to different kinds of competition (intraspecific vs. interspecific). Furthermore, it was shown that the box dimension is positively related to the trees' growth rate. The box dimension was identified as an easy to calculate measure that integrates the effect of several external drivers of tree structure, such as competition strength and type, while simultaneously providing information on structure-related properties, like tree growth.

The ratio of NPP to GPP: evidence of change over the course of stand development.

PubMed

Mäkelä, A; Valentine, H T

2001-09-01

Using Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Fenno-Scandia as a case study, we investigate whether net primary production (NPP) and maintenance respiration are constant fractions of gross primary production (GPP) as even-aged mono-specific stands progress from initiation to old age. A model of the ratio of NPP to GPP is developed based on (1) the classical model of respiration, which divides total respiration into construction and maintenance components, and (2) a process-based model, which derives respiration from processes including construction, nitrate uptake and reduction, ion uptake, phloem loading and maintenance. Published estimates of specific respiration and production rates, and some recent measurements of components of dry matter in stands of different ages, are used to quantify the two approaches over the course of stand development in an average environment. Both approaches give similar results, showing a decrease in the NPP/GPP ratio with increasing tree height. In addition, we show that stand-growth models fitted under three different sets of assumptions-(i) annual specific rates of maintenance respiration of sapwood (mW) and photosynthesis (sC) are constant; (ii) m(W) is constant, but sC decreases with increasing tree height; and (iii) total maintenance respiration is a constant fraction of GPP and s(C) decreases with increasing tree height-can lead to nearly identical model projections that agree with empirical observations of NPP and stand-growth variables. Remeasurements of GPP and respiration over time in chronosequences of stands may be needed to discern which set of assumptions is correct. Total (construction + maintenance) sapwood respiration per unit mass of sapwood (kg C (kg C year)-1) decreased with increasing stand age, sapwood stock, and average tree height under all three assumptions. However, total sapwood respiration (kg C (ha year)-1) increased over the course of stand development under (i) and (ii), contributing to a downward trend in the time course of the NPP/GPP ratio after closure. A moderate decrease in mW with increasing tree height or sapwood cross-sectional area had little effect on the downward trend. On the basis of this evidence, we argue that a significant decline in the NPP/GPP ratio with tree size or age seems highly probable, although the decline may appear insignificant over some segments of stand development. We also argue that, because stand-growth models can give correct answers for the wrong reasons, statistical calibration of such models should be avoided whenever possible; instead, values of physiological parameters should come from measurements of the physiological processes themselves.

A finite element-based machine learning approach for modeling the mechanical behavior of the breast tissues under compression in real-time.

PubMed

Martínez-Martínez, F; Rupérez-Moreno, M J; Martínez-Sober, M; Solves-Llorens, J A; Lorente, D; Serrano-López, A J; Martínez-Sanchis, S; Monserrat, C; Martín-Guerrero, J D

2017-11-01

This work presents a data-driven method to simulate, in real-time, the biomechanical behavior of the breast tissues in some image-guided interventions such as biopsies or radiotherapy dose delivery as well as to speed up multimodal registration algorithms. Ten real breasts were used for this work. Their deformation due to the displacement of two compression plates was simulated off-line using the finite element (FE) method. Three machine learning models were trained with the data from those simulations. Then, they were used to predict in real-time the deformation of the breast tissues during the compression. The models were a decision tree and two tree-based ensemble methods (extremely randomized trees and random forest). Two different experimental setups were designed to validate and study the performance of these models under different conditions. The mean 3D Euclidean distance between nodes predicted by the models and those extracted from the FE simulations was calculated to assess the performance of the models in the validation set. The experiments proved that extremely randomized trees performed better than the other two models. The mean error committed by the three models in the prediction of the nodal displacements was under 2 mm, a threshold usually set for clinical applications. The time needed for breast compression prediction is sufficiently short to allow its use in real-time (<0.2 s). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using decision trees to understand structure in missing data

PubMed Central

Tierney, Nicholas J; Harden, Fiona A; Harden, Maurice J; Mengersen, Kerrie L

2015-01-01

Objectives Demonstrate the application of decision trees—classification and regression trees (CARTs), and their cousins, boosted regression trees (BRTs)—to understand structure in missing data. Setting Data taken from employees at 3 different industrial sites in Australia. Participants 7915 observations were included. Materials and methods The approach was evaluated using an occupational health data set comprising results of questionnaires, medical tests and environmental monitoring. Statistical methods included standard statistical tests and the ‘rpart’ and ‘gbm’ packages for CART and BRT analyses, respectively, from the statistical software ‘R’. A simulation study was conducted to explore the capability of decision tree models in describing data with missingness artificially introduced. Results CART and BRT models were effective in highlighting a missingness structure in the data, related to the type of data (medical or environmental), the site in which it was collected, the number of visits, and the presence of extreme values. The simulation study revealed that CART models were able to identify variables and values responsible for inducing missingness. There was greater variation in variable importance for unstructured as compared to structured missingness. Discussion Both CART and BRT models were effective in describing structural missingness in data. CART models may be preferred over BRT models for exploratory analysis of missing data, and selecting variables important for predicting missingness. BRT models can show how values of other variables influence missingness, which may prove useful for researchers. Conclusions Researchers are encouraged to use CART and BRT models to explore and understand missing data. PMID:26124509

Applying decision tree for identification of a low risk population for type 2 diabetes. Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

PubMed

Ramezankhani, Azra; Pournik, Omid; Shahrabi, Jamal; Khalili, Davood; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to create a prediction model using data mining approach to identify low risk individuals for incidence of type 2 diabetes, using the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) database. For a 6647 population without diabetes, aged ≥20 years, followed for 12 years, a prediction model was developed using classification by the decision tree technique. Seven hundred and twenty-nine (11%) diabetes cases occurred during the follow-up. Predictor variables were selected from demographic characteristics, smoking status, medical and drug history and laboratory measures. We developed the predictive models by decision tree using 60 input variables and one output variable. The overall classification accuracy was 90.5%, with 31.1% sensitivity, 97.9% specificity; and for the subjects without diabetes, precision and f-measure were 92% and 0.95, respectively. The identified variables included fasting plasma glucose, body mass index, triglycerides, mean arterial blood pressure, family history of diabetes, educational level and job status. In conclusion, decision tree analysis, using routine demographic, clinical, anthropometric and laboratory measurements, created a simple tool to predict individuals at low risk for type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metapopulation modelling of riparian tree species persistence in river networks under climate change.

PubMed

Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy

2017-11-01

Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime perturbation, posing risks to population persistence. Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for river systems adaptation management programs are developed. The association of habitat quality and quantity with the landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of species survival and colonization processes, but essential to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We present a modelling approach that elucidates network connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal context to identify vital corridors and conservation priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries. Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still, little is known of critical levels of alteration both spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species, white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated in population persistence over the river basin. For the two tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the human impact model already shows currently restricted metapopulation development, climate change is projected to aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For both species a significant drawback to the basin population is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25 years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove effective to even bring metapopulation strength and persistence up to a level above the current level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity-based regionalization concept is not applicable.

Index Blood Tests and National Early Warning Scores within 24 Hours of Emergency Admission Can Predict the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality: A Model Development and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Mohammed A.; Rudge, Gavin; Watson, Duncan; Wood, Gordon; Smith, Gary B.; Prytherch, David R.; Girling, Alan; Stevens, Andrew

2013-01-01

Background We explored the use of routine blood tests and national early warning scores (NEWS) reported within ±24 hours of admission to predict in-hospital mortality in emergency admissions, using empirical decision Tree models because they are intuitive and may ultimately be used to support clinical decision making. Methodology A retrospective analysis of adult emergency admissions to a large acute hospital during April 2009 to March 2010 in the West Midlands, England, with a full set of index blood tests results (albumin, creatinine, haemoglobin, potassium, sodium, urea, white cell count and an index NEWS undertaken within ±24 hours of admission). We developed a Tree model by randomly splitting the admissions into a training (50%) and validation dataset (50%) and assessed its accuracy using the concordance (c-) statistic. Emergency admissions (about 30%) did not have a full set of index blood tests and/or NEWS and so were not included in our analysis. Results There were 23248 emergency admissions with a full set of blood tests and NEWS with an in-hospital mortality of 5.69%. The Tree model identified age, NEWS, albumin, sodium, white cell count and urea as significant (p<0.001) predictors of death, which described 17 homogeneous subgroups of admissions with mortality ranging from 0.2% to 60%. The c-statistic for the training model was 0.864 (95%CI 0.852 to 0.87) and when applied to the testing data set this was 0.853 (95%CI 0.840 to 0.866). Conclusions An easy to interpret validated risk adjustment Tree model using blood test and NEWS taken within ±24 hours of admission provides good discrimination and offers a novel approach to risk adjustment which may potentially support clinical decision making. Given the nature of the clinical data, the results are likely to be generalisable but further research is required to investigate this promising approach. PMID:23734195

A Comparison between Decision Tree and Random Forest in Determining the Risk Factors Associated with Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Esmaily, Habibollah; Tayefi, Maryam; Doosti, Hassan; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid; Nezami, Hossein; Amirabadizadeh, Alireza

2018-04-24

We aimed to identify the associated risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using data mining approach, decision tree and random forest techniques using the Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic Disorders (MASHAD) Study program. A cross-sectional study. The MASHAD study started in 2010 and will continue until 2020. Two data mining tools, namely decision trees, and random forests, are used for predicting T2DM when some other characteristics are observed on 9528 subjects recruited from MASHAD database. This paper makes a comparison between these two models in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the area under ROC curve. The prevalence rate of T2DM was 14% among these subjects. The decision tree model has 64.9% accuracy, 64.5% sensitivity, 66.8% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 68.6%, while the random forest model has 71.1% accuracy, 71.3% sensitivity, 69.9% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 77.3% respectively. The random forest model, when used with demographic, clinical, and anthropometric and biochemical measurements, can provide a simple tool to identify associated risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Such identification can substantially use for managing the health policy to reduce the number of subjects with T2DM .

Effective Tree Scattering and Opacity at L-Band

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurum, Mehmet; O'Neill, Peggy E.; Lang, Roger H.; Joseph, Alicia T.; Cosh, Michael H.; Jackson, Thomas J.

2011-01-01

This paper investigates vegetation effects at L-band by using a first-order radiative transfer (RT) model and truck-based microwave measurements over natural conifer stands to assess the applicability of the tau-omega) model over trees. The tau-omega model is a zero-order RT solution that accounts for vegetation effects with effective vegetation parameters (vegetation opacity and single-scattering albedo), which represent the canopy as a whole. This approach inherently ignores multiple-scattering effects and, therefore, has a limited validity depending on the level of scattering within the canopy. The fact that the scattering from large forest components such as branches and trunks is significant at L-band requires that zero-order vegetation parameters be evaluated (compared) along with their theoretical definitions to provide a better understanding of these parameters in the retrieval algorithms as applied to trees. This paper compares the effective vegetation opacities, computed from multi-angular pine tree brightness temperature data, against the results of two independent approaches that provide theoretical and measured optical depths. These two techniques are based on forward scattering theory and radar corner reflector measurements, respectively. The results indicate that the effective vegetation opacity values are smaller than but of similar magnitude to both radar and theoretical estimates. The effective opacity of the zero-order model is thus set equal to the theoretical opacity and an explicit expression for the effective albedo is then obtained from the zero- and first- order RT model comparison. The resultant albedo is found to have a similar magnitude as the effective albedo value obtained from brightness temperature measurements. However, it is less than half of that estimated using the theoretical calculations (0.5 - 0.6 for tree canopies at L-band). This lower observed albedo balances the scattering darkening effect of the large theoretical albedo with a first-order multiple-scattering contribution. The retrieved effective albedo is different from theoretical definitions and not the albedo of single forest elements anymore, but it becomes a global parameter, which depends on all the processes taking place within the canopy, including multiple-scattering.

Simulating Various Terrestrial and Uav LIDAR Scanning Configurations for Understory Forest Structure Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hämmerle, M.; Lukač, N.; Chen, K.-C.; Koma, Zs.; Wang, C.-K.; Anders, K.; Höfle, B.

2017-09-01

Information about the 3D structure of understory vegetation is of high relevance in forestry research and management (e.g., for complete biomass estimations). However, it has been hardly investigated systematically with state-of-the-art methods such as static terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) or laser scanning from unmanned aerial vehicle platforms (ULS). A prominent challenge for scanning forests is posed by occlusion, calling for proper TLS scan position or ULS flight line configurations in order to achieve an accurate representation of understory vegetation. The aim of our study is to examine the effect of TLS or ULS scanning strategies on (1) the height of individual understory trees and (2) understory canopy height raster models. We simulate full-waveform TLS and ULS point clouds of a virtual forest plot captured from various combinations of max. 12 TLS scan positions or 3 ULS flight lines. The accuracy of the respective datasets is evaluated with reference values given by the virtually scanned 3D triangle mesh tree models. TLS tree height underestimations range up to 1.84 m (15.30 % of tree height) for single TLS scan positions, but combining three scan positions reduces the underestimation to maximum 0.31 m (2.41 %). Combining ULS flight lines also results in improved tree height representation, with a maximum underestimation of 0.24 m (2.15 %). The presented simulation approach offers a complementary source of information for efficient planning of field campaigns aiming at understory vegetation modelling.

Removal of Ozone by Urban and Peri-Urban Forests: Evidence from Laboratory, Field, and Modeling Approaches.

PubMed

Calfapietra, Carlo; Morani, Arianna; Sgrigna, Gregorio; Di Giovanni, Sara; Muzzini, Valerio; Pallozzi, Emanuele; Guidolotti, Gabriele; Nowak, David; Fares, Silvano

2016-01-01

A crucial issue in urban environments is the interaction between urban trees and atmospheric pollution, particularly ozone (O). Ozone represents one of the most harmful pollutants in urban and peri-urban environments, especially in warm climates. Besides the large interest in reducing anthropogenic and biogenic precursors of O emissions, there is growing scientific activity aimed at understanding O removal by vegetation, particularly trees. The intent of this paper is to provide the state of the art and suggestions to improve future studies of O fluxes and to discuss implications of O flux studies to maximize environmental services through the planning and management of urban forests. To evaluate and quantify the potential of O removal in urban and peri-urban forests, we describe experimental approaches to measure O fluxes, distinguishing laboratory experiments, field measurements, and model estimates, including recent case studies. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and conclude that the combination of the three levels of investigation is essential for estimating O removal by urban trees. We also comment on the implications of these findings for planning and management of urban forests, suggesting some key issues that should be considered to maximize O removal by urban and peri-urban forests. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

PubMed

Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

2016-06-01

The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harmonic regression of Landsat time series for modeling attributes from national forest inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Barry T.; Knight, Joseph F.; McRoberts, Ronald E.

2018-03-01

Imagery from the Landsat Program has been used frequently as a source of auxiliary data for modeling land cover, as well as a variety of attributes associated with tree cover. With ready access to all scenes in the archive since 2008 due to the USGS Landsat Data Policy, new approaches to deriving such auxiliary data from dense Landsat time series are required. Several methods have previously been developed for use with finer temporal resolution imagery (e.g. AVHRR and MODIS), including image compositing and harmonic regression using Fourier series. The manuscript presents a study, using Minnesota, USA during the years 2009-2013 as the study area and timeframe. The study examined the relative predictive power of land cover models, in particular those related to tree cover, using predictor variables based solely on composite imagery versus those using estimated harmonic regression coefficients. The study used two common non-parametric modeling approaches (i.e. k-nearest neighbors and random forests) for fitting classification and regression models of multiple attributes measured on USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis plots using all available Landsat imagery for the study area and timeframe. The estimated Fourier coefficients developed by harmonic regression of tasseled cap transformation time series data were shown to be correlated with land cover, including tree cover. Regression models using estimated Fourier coefficients as predictor variables showed a two- to threefold increase in explained variance for a small set of continuous response variables, relative to comparable models using monthly image composites. Similarly, the overall accuracies of classification models using the estimated Fourier coefficients were approximately 10-20 percentage points higher than the models using the image composites, with corresponding individual class accuracies between six and 45 percentage points higher.

Stacking transgenes in forest trees.

PubMed

Halpin, Claire; Boerjan, Wout

2003-08-01

Huge potential exists for improving plant raw materials and foodstuffs via metabolic engineering. To date, progress has mostly been limited to modulating the expression of single genes of well-studied pathways, such as the lignin biosynthetic pathway, in model species. However, a recent report illustrates a new level of sophistication in metabolic engineering by overexpressing one lignin enzyme while simultaneously suppressing the expression of another lignin gene in a tree, aspen. This novel approach to multi-gene manipulation has succeeded in concurrently improving several wood-quality traits.

Forest Tree Species Distribution Mapping Using Landsat Satellite Imagery and Topographic Variables with the Maximum Entropy Method in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao Chiang, Shou; Valdez, Miguel; Chen, Chi-Farn

2016-06-01

Forest is a very important ecosystem and natural resource for living things. Based on forest inventories, government is able to make decisions to converse, improve and manage forests in a sustainable way. Field work for forestry investigation is difficult and time consuming, because it needs intensive physical labor and the costs are high, especially surveying in remote mountainous regions. A reliable forest inventory can give us a more accurate and timely information to develop new and efficient approaches of forest management. The remote sensing technology has been recently used for forest investigation at a large scale. To produce an informative forest inventory, forest attributes, including tree species are unavoidably required to be considered. In this study the aim is to classify forest tree species in Erdenebulgan County, Huwsgul province in Mongolia, using Maximum Entropy method. The study area is covered by a dense forest which is almost 70% of total territorial extension of Erdenebulgan County and is located in a high mountain region in northern Mongolia. For this study, Landsat satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were acquired to perform tree species mapping. The forest tree species inventory map was collected from the Forest Division of the Mongolian Ministry of Nature and Environment as training data and also used as ground truth to perform the accuracy assessment of the tree species classification. Landsat images and DEM were processed for maximum entropy modeling, and this study applied the model with two experiments. The first one is to use Landsat surface reflectance for tree species classification; and the second experiment incorporates terrain variables in addition to the Landsat surface reflectance to perform the tree species classification. All experimental results were compared with the tree species inventory to assess the classification accuracy. Results show that the second one which uses Landsat surface reflectance coupled with terrain variables produced better result, with the higher overall accuracy and kappa coefficient than first experiment. The results indicate that the Maximum Entropy method is an applicable, and to classify tree species using satellite imagery data coupled with terrain information can improve the classification of tree species in the study area.

New Insights into the Consequences of Post-Windthrow Salvage Logging Revealed by Functional Structure of Saproxylic Beetles Assemblages

PubMed Central

Thorn, Simon; Bässler, Claus; Gottschalk, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Bussler, Heinz; Raffa, Kenneth; Müller, Jörg

2014-01-01

Windstorms, bark beetle outbreaks and fires are important natural disturbances in coniferous forests worldwide. Wind-thrown trees promote biodiversity and restoration within production forests, but also cause large economic losses due to bark beetle infestation and accelerated fungal decomposition. Such damaged trees are often removed by salvage logging, which leads to decreased biodiversity and thus increasingly evokes discussions between economists and ecologists about appropriate strategies. To reveal the reasons behind species loss after salvage logging, we used a functional approach based on four habitat-related ecological traits and focused on saproxylic beetles. We predicted that salvage logging would decrease functional diversity (measured as effect sizes of mean pairwise distances using null models) as well as mean values of beetle body size, wood diameter niche and canopy cover niche, but would increase decay stage niche. As expected, salvage logging caused a decrease in species richness, but led to an increase in functional diversity by altering the species composition from habitat-filtered assemblages toward random assemblages. Even though salvage logging removes tree trunks, the most negative effects were found for small and heliophilous species and for species specialized on wood of small diameter. Our results suggested that salvage logging disrupts the natural assembly process on windthrown trees and that negative ecological impacts are caused more by microclimate alteration of the dead-wood objects than by loss of resource amount. These insights underline the power of functional approaches to detect ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance and form a basis for management decisions in conservation. To mitigate negative effects on saproxylic beetle diversity after windthrows, we recommend preserving single windthrown trees or at least their tops with exposed branches during salvage logging. Such an extension of the green-tree retention approach to windthrown trees will preserve natural succession and associated communities of disturbed spruce forests. PMID:25050914

New insights into the consequences of post-windthrow salvage logging revealed by functional structure of saproxylic beetles assemblages.

PubMed

Thorn, Simon; Bässler, Claus; Gottschalk, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Bussler, Heinz; Raffa, Kenneth; Müller, Jörg

2014-01-01

Windstorms, bark beetle outbreaks and fires are important natural disturbances in coniferous forests worldwide. Wind-thrown trees promote biodiversity and restoration within production forests, but also cause large economic losses due to bark beetle infestation and accelerated fungal decomposition. Such damaged trees are often removed by salvage logging, which leads to decreased biodiversity and thus increasingly evokes discussions between economists and ecologists about appropriate strategies. To reveal the reasons behind species loss after salvage logging, we used a functional approach based on four habitat-related ecological traits and focused on saproxylic beetles. We predicted that salvage logging would decrease functional diversity (measured as effect sizes of mean pairwise distances using null models) as well as mean values of beetle body size, wood diameter niche and canopy cover niche, but would increase decay stage niche. As expected, salvage logging caused a decrease in species richness, but led to an increase in functional diversity by altering the species composition from habitat-filtered assemblages toward random assemblages. Even though salvage logging removes tree trunks, the most negative effects were found for small and heliophilous species and for species specialized on wood of small diameter. Our results suggested that salvage logging disrupts the natural assembly process on windthrown trees and that negative ecological impacts are caused more by microclimate alteration of the dead-wood objects than by loss of resource amount. These insights underline the power of functional approaches to detect ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance and form a basis for management decisions in conservation. To mitigate negative effects on saproxylic beetle diversity after windthrows, we recommend preserving single windthrown trees or at least their tops with exposed branches during salvage logging. Such an extension of the green-tree retention approach to windthrown trees will preserve natural succession and associated communities of disturbed spruce forests.

Metal fate and partitioning in soils under bark beetle-killed trees.

PubMed

Bearup, Lindsay A; Mikkelson, Kristin M; Wiley, Joseph F; Navarre-Sitchler, Alexis K; Maxwell, Reed M; Sharp, Jonathan O; McCray, John E

2014-10-15

Recent mountain pine beetle infestation in the Rocky Mountains of North America has killed an unprecedented acreage of pine forest, creating an opportunity to observe an active re-equilibration in response to widespread land cover perturbation. This work investigates metal mobility in beetle-impacted forests using parallel rainwater and acid leaches to estimate solid-liquid partitioning coefficients and a complete sequential extraction procedure to determine how metals are fractionated in soils under trees experiencing different phases of mortality. Geochemical model simulations analyzed in consideration with experimental data provide additional insight into the mechanisms controlling metal complexation. Metal and base-cation mobility consistently increased in soils under beetle-attacked trees relative to soil under healthy trees. Mobility increases were more pronounced on south facing slopes and more strongly correlated to pH under attacked trees than under healthy trees. Similarly, soil moisture was significantly higher under dead trees, related to the loss of transpiration and interception. Zinc and cadmium content increased in soils under dead trees relative to living trees. Cadmium increases occurred predominantly in the exchangeable fraction, indicating increased mobilization potential. Relative increases of zinc were greatest in the organic fraction, the only fraction where increases in copper were observed. Model results reveal that increased organic complexation, not changes in pH or base cation concentrations, can explain the observed differences in metal partitioning for zinc, nickel, cadmium, and copper. Predicted concentrations would be unlikely to impair human health or plant growth at these sites; however, higher exchangeable metals under beetle-killed trees relative to healthy trees suggest a possible decline in riverine ecosystem health and water quality in areas already approaching criteria limits and drinking water standards. Impairment of water quality in important headwater streams from the increased potential for metal mobilization and storage will continue to change as beetle-killed trees decompose and forests begin to recover. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

AMPK modulatory activity of olive-tree leaves phenolic compounds: Bioassay-guided isolation on adipocyte model and in silico approach.

PubMed

Jiménez-Sánchez, Cecilia; Olivares-Vicente, Mariló; Rodríguez-Pérez, Celia; Herranz-López, María; Lozano-Sánchez, Jesús; Segura-Carretero, Antonio; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Alberto; Encinar, José Antonio; Micol, Vicente

2017-01-01

Olive-tree polyphenols have demonstrated potential for the management of obesity-related pathologies. We aimed to explore the capacity of Olive-tree leaves extract to modulate triglyceride accumulation and AMP-activated protein kinase activity (AMPK) on a hypertrophic adipocyte model. Intracellular triglycerides and AMPK activity were measured on the hypertrophic 3T3-L1 adipocyte model by AdipoRed and immunofluorescence microscopy, respectively. Reverse phase high performance liquid chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass detection with electrospray ionization (RP-HPLC-ESI-TOF/MS) was used for the fractionation of the extract and the identification of the compounds. In-silico molecular docking of the AMPK alpha-2, beta and gamma subunits with the identified compounds was performed. Olive-tree leaves extract decreased the intracellular lipid accumulation through AMPK-dependent mechanisms in hypertrophic adipocytes. Secoiridoids, cinnamic acids, phenylethanoids and phenylpropanoids, flavonoids and lignans were the candidates predicted to account for this effect. Molecular docking revealed that some compounds may be AMPK-gamma modulators. The modulatory effects of compounds over the alpha and beta AMPK subunits appear to be less probable. Olive-tree leaves polyphenols modulate AMPK activity, which may become a therapeutic aid in the management of obesity-associated disturbances. The natural occurrence of these compounds may have important nutritional implications for the design of functional ingredients.

AMPK modulatory activity of olive–tree leaves phenolic compounds: Bioassay-guided isolation on adipocyte model and in silico approach

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Sánchez, Cecilia; Olivares-Vicente, Mariló; Rodríguez-Pérez, Celia; Herranz-López, María; Lozano-Sánchez, Jesús; Segura-Carretero, Antonio; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Alberto; Encinar, José Antonio; Micol, Vicente

2017-01-01

Scope Olive-tree polyphenols have demonstrated potential for the management of obesity-related pathologies. We aimed to explore the capacity of Olive-tree leaves extract to modulate triglyceride accumulation and AMP-activated protein kinase activity (AMPK) on a hypertrophic adipocyte model. Methods Intracellular triglycerides and AMPK activity were measured on the hypertrophic 3T3-L1 adipocyte model by AdipoRed and immunofluorescence microscopy, respectively. Reverse phase high performance liquid chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass detection with electrospray ionization (RP-HPLC-ESI-TOF/MS) was used for the fractionation of the extract and the identification of the compounds. In-silico molecular docking of the AMPK alpha-2, beta and gamma subunits with the identified compounds was performed. Results Olive-tree leaves extract decreased the intracellular lipid accumulation through AMPK-dependent mechanisms in hypertrophic adipocytes. Secoiridoids, cinnamic acids, phenylethanoids and phenylpropanoids, flavonoids and lignans were the candidates predicted to account for this effect. Molecular docking revealed that some compounds may be AMPK-gamma modulators. The modulatory effects of compounds over the alpha and beta AMPK subunits appear to be less probable. Conclusions Olive-tree leaves polyphenols modulate AMPK activity, which may become a therapeutic aid in the management of obesity-associated disturbances. The natural occurrence of these compounds may have important nutritional implications for the design of functional ingredients. PMID:28278224

Relationships between individual-tree mortality and water-balance variables indicate positive trends in water stress-induced tree mortality across North America.

PubMed

Hember, Robbie A; Kurz, Werner A; Coops, Nicholas C

2017-04-01

Accounting for water stress-induced tree mortality in forest productivity models remains a challenge due to uncertainty in stress tolerance of tree populations. In this study, logistic regression models were developed to assess species-specific relationships between probability of mortality (P m ) and drought, drawing on 8.1 million observations of change in vital status (m) of individual trees across North America. Drought was defined by standardized (relative) values of soil water content (W s,z ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET r,z ) at each field plot. The models additionally tested for interactions between the water-balance variables, aridity class of the site (AC), and estimated tree height (h). Considering drought improved model performance in 95 (80) per cent of the 64 tested species during calibration (cross-validation). On average, sensitivity to relative drought increased with site AC (i.e. aridity). Interaction between water-balance variables and estimated tree height indicated that drought sensitivity commonly decreased during early height development and increased during late height development, which may reflect expansion of the root system and decreasing whole-plant, leaf-specific hydraulic conductance, respectively. Across North America, predictions suggested that changes in the water balance caused mortality to increase from 1.1% yr -1 in 1951 to 2.0% yr -1 in 2014 (a net change of 0.9 ± 0.3% yr -1 ). Interannual variation in mortality also increased, driven by increasingly severe droughts in 1988, 1998, 2006, 2007 and 2012. With strong confidence, this study indicates that water stress is a common cause of tree mortality. With weak-to-moderate confidence, this study strengthens previous claims attributing positive trends in mortality to increasing levels of water stress. This 'learn-as-we-go' approach - defined by sampling rare drought events as they continue to intensify - will help to constrain the hydraulic limits of dominant tree species and the viability of boreal and temperate forest biomes under continued climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating Mixed Broadleaves Forest Stand Volume Using Dsm Extracted from Digital Aerial Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohrabi, H.

2012-07-01

In mixed old growth broadleaves of Hyrcanian forests, it is difficult to estimate stand volume at plot level by remotely sensed data while LiDar data is absent. In this paper, a new approach has been proposed and tested for estimating stand forest volume. The approach is based on this idea that forest volume can be estimated by variation of trees height at plots. In the other word, the more the height variation in plot, the more the stand volume would be expected. For testing this idea, 120 circular 0.1 ha sample plots with systematic random design has been collected in Tonekaon forest located in Hyrcanian zone. Digital surface model (DSM) measure the height values of the first surface on the ground including terrain features, trees, building etc, which provides a topographic model of the earth's surface. The DSMs have been extracted automatically from aerial UltraCamD images so that ground pixel size for extracted DSM varied from 1 to 10 m size by 1m span. DSMs were checked manually for probable errors. Corresponded to ground samples, standard deviation and range of DSM pixels have been calculated. For modeling, non-linear regression method was used. The results showed that standard deviation of plot pixels with 5 m resolution was the most appropriate data for modeling. Relative bias and RMSE of estimation was 5.8 and 49.8 percent, respectively. Comparing to other approaches for estimating stand volume based on passive remote sensing data in mixed broadleaves forests, these results are more encouraging. One big problem in this method occurs when trees canopy cover is totally closed. In this situation, the standard deviation of height is low while stand volume is high. In future studies, applying forest stratification could be studied.

Bayesian analysis of biogeography when the number of areas is large.

PubMed

Landis, Michael J; Matzke, Nicholas J; Moore, Brian R; Huelsenbeck, John P

2013-11-01

Historical biogeography is increasingly studied from an explicitly statistical perspective, using stochastic models to describe the evolution of species range as a continuous-time Markov process of dispersal between and extinction within a set of discrete geographic areas. The main constraint of these methods is the computational limit on the number of areas that can be specified. We propose a Bayesian approach for inferring biogeographic history that extends the application of biogeographic models to the analysis of more realistic problems that involve a large number of areas. Our solution is based on a "data-augmentation" approach, in which we first populate the tree with a history of biogeographic events that is consistent with the observed species ranges at the tips of the tree. We then calculate the likelihood of a given history by adopting a mechanistic interpretation of the instantaneous-rate matrix, which specifies both the exponential waiting times between biogeographic events and the relative probabilities of each biogeographic change. We develop this approach in a Bayesian framework, marginalizing over all possible biogeographic histories using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Besides dramatically increasing the number of areas that can be accommodated in a biogeographic analysis, our method allows the parameters of a given biogeographic model to be estimated and different biogeographic models to be objectively compared. Our approach is implemented in the program, BayArea.

Tree detection in orchards from VHR satellite images using scale-space theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahour, Milad; Tolpekin, Valentyn; Stein, Alfred

2016-10-01

This study focused on extracting reliable and detailed information from very High Resolution (VHR) satellite images for the detection of individual trees in orchards. The images contain detailed information on spectral and geometrical properties of trees. Their scale level, however, is insufficient for spectral properties of individual trees, because adjacent tree canopies interlock. We modeled trees using a bell shaped spectral profile. Identifying the brightest peak was challenging due to sun illumination effects caused 1 by differences in positions of the sun and the satellite sensor. Crown boundary detection was solved by using the NDVI from the same image. We used Gaussian scale-space methods that search for extrema in the scale-space domain. The procedures were tested on two orchards with different tree types, tree sizes and tree observation patterns in Iran. Validation was done using reference data derived from an UltraCam digital aerial photo. Local extrema of the determinant of the Hessian corresponded well to the geographical coordinates and the size of individual trees. False detections arising from a slight asymmetry of trees were distinguished from multiple detections of the same tree with different extents. Uncertainty assessment was carried out on the presence and spatial extents of individual trees. The study demonstrated how the suggested approach can be used for image segmentation for orchards with different types of trees. We concluded that Gaussian scale-space theory can be applied to extract information from VHR satellite images for individual tree detection. This may lead to improved decision making for irrigation and crop water requirement purposes in future studies.

[Compatible biomass models of natural spruce (Picea asperata)].

PubMed

Wang, Jin Chi; Deng, Hua Feng; Huang, Guo Sheng; Wang, Xue Jun; Zhang, Lu

2017-10-01

By using nonlinear measurement error method, the compatible tree volume and above ground biomass equations were established based on the volume and biomass data of 150 sampling trees of natural spruce (Picea asperata). Two approaches, controlling directly under total aboveground biomass and controlling jointly from level to level, were used to design the compatible system for the total aboveground biomass and the biomass of four components (stem, bark, branch and foliage), and the total ground biomass could be estimated independently or estimated simultaneously in the system. The results showed that the R 2 of the one variable and bivariate compatible tree volume and aboveground biomass equations were all above 0.85, and the maximum value reached 0.99. The prediction effect of the volume equations could be improved significantly when tree height was included as predictor, while it was not significant in biomass estimation. For the compatible biomass systems, the one variable model based on controlling jointly from level to level was better than the model using controlling directly under total above ground biomass, but the bivariate models of the two methods were similar. Comparing the imitative effects of the one variable and bivariate compatible biomass models, the results showed that the increase of explainable variables could significantly improve the fitness of branch and foliage biomass, but had little effect on other components. Besides, there was almost no difference between the two methods of estimation based on the comparison.

Next generation immunotherapy for tree pollen allergies.

PubMed

Su, Yan; Romeu-Bonilla, Eliezer; Heiland, Teri

2017-10-03

Tree pollen induced allergies are one of the major medical and public health burdens in the industrialized world. Allergen-Specific Immunotherapy (AIT) through subcutaneous injection or sublingual delivery is the only approved therapy with curative potential to pollen induced allergies. AIT often is associated with severe side effects and requires long-term treatment. Safer, more effective and convenient allergen specific immunotherapies remain an unmet need. In this review article, we discuss the current progress in applying protein and peptide-based approaches and DNA vaccines to the clinical challenges posed by tree pollen allergies through the lens of preclinical animal models and clinical trials, with an emphasis on the birch and Japanese red cedar pollen induced allergies.

Classification of savanna tree species, in the Greater Kruger National Park region, by integrating hyperspectral and LiDAR data in a Random Forest data mining environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidoo, L.; Cho, M. A.; Mathieu, R.; Asner, G.

2012-04-01

The accurate classification and mapping of individual trees at species level in the savanna ecosystem can provide numerous benefits for the managerial authorities. Such benefits include the mapping of economically useful tree species, which are a key source of food production and fuel wood for the local communities, and of problematic alien invasive and bush encroaching species, which can threaten the integrity of the environment and livelihoods of the local communities. Species level mapping is particularly challenging in African savannas which are complex, heterogeneous, and open environments with high intra-species spectral variability due to differences in geology, topography, rainfall, herbivory and human impacts within relatively short distances. Savanna vegetation are also highly irregular in canopy and crown shape, height and other structural dimensions with a combination of open grassland patches and dense woody thicket - a stark contrast to the more homogeneous forest vegetation. This study classified eight common savanna tree species in the Greater Kruger National Park region, South Africa, using a combination of hyperspectral and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived structural parameters, in the form of seven predictor datasets, in an automated Random Forest modelling approach. The most important predictors, which were found to play an important role in the different classification models and contributed to the success of the hybrid dataset model when combined, were species tree height; NDVI; the chlorophyll b wavelength (466 nm) and a selection of raw, continuum removed and Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) bands. It was also concluded that the hybrid predictor dataset Random Forest model yielded the highest classification accuracy and prediction success for the eight savanna tree species with an overall classification accuracy of 87.68% and KHAT value of 0.843.

Precipitation v. River Discharge Controls on Water Availability to Riparian Trees in the Rhône River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, M. B.; Sargeant, C. I.; Vallet-Coulomb, C.; Evans, C.; Bates, C. R.

2014-12-01

Water availability to riparian trees in lowlands is controlled through precipitation and its infiltration into floodplain soils, and through river discharge additions to the hyporheic water table. The relative contributions of both water sources to the root zone within river floodplains vary through time, depending on climatic fluctuations. There is currently limited understanding of how climatic fluctuations are expressed at local scales, especially in 'critical zone' hydrology, which is fundamental to the health and sustainability of riparian forest ecosystems. This knowledge is particularly important in water-stressed Mediterranean climate systems, considering climatic trends and projections toward hotter and drier growing seasons, which have the potential to dramatically reduce water availability to riparian forests. Our aim is to identify and quantify the relative contributions of hyporheic (discharge) water v. infiltrated precipitation to water uptake by riparian Mediterranean trees for several distinct hydrologic years, selected to isolate contrasts in water availability from these sources. Our approach includes isotopic analyses of water and tree-ring cellulose, mechanistic modeling of water uptake and wood production, and physically based modeling of subsurface hydrology. We utilize an extensive database of oxygen isotope (δ18O) measurements in surface water and precipitation alongside recent measurements of δ18O in groundwater and soil water and in tree-ring cellulose. We use a mechanistic model to back-calculate source water δ18O based on δ18O in cellulose and climate data. Finally, we test our results via 1-D hydrologic modeling of precipitation infiltration and water table rise and fall. These steps enable us to interpret hydrologic cycle variability within the 'critical zone' and their potential impact on riparian trees.

Oxygen Distributions-Evaluation of Computational Methods, Using a Stochastic Model for Large Tumour Vasculature, to Elucidate the Importance of Considering a Complete Vascular Network.

PubMed

Lagerlöf, Jakob H; Bernhardt, Peter

2016-01-01

To develop a general model that utilises a stochastic method to generate a vessel tree based on experimental data, and an associated irregular, macroscopic tumour. These will be used to evaluate two different methods for computing oxygen distribution. A vessel tree structure, and an associated tumour of 127 cm3, were generated, using a stochastic method and Bresenham's line algorithm to develop trees on two different scales and fusing them together. The vessel dimensions were adjusted through convolution and thresholding and each vessel voxel was assigned an oxygen value. Diffusion and consumption were modelled using a Green's function approach together with Michaelis-Menten kinetics. The computations were performed using a combined tree method (CTM) and an individual tree method (ITM). Five tumour sub-sections were compared, to evaluate the methods. The oxygen distributions of the same tissue samples, using different methods of computation, were considerably less similar (root mean square deviation, RMSD≈0.02) than the distributions of different samples using CTM (0.001< RMSD<0.01). The deviations of ITM from CTM increase with lower oxygen values, resulting in ITM severely underestimating the level of hypoxia in the tumour. Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS) tests showed that millimetre-scale samples may not represent the whole. The stochastic model managed to capture the heterogeneous nature of hypoxic fractions and, even though the simplified computation did not considerably alter the oxygen distribution, it leads to an evident underestimation of tumour hypoxia, and thereby radioresistance. For a trustworthy computation of tumour oxygenation, the interaction between adjacent microvessel trees must not be neglected, why evaluation should be made using high resolution and the CTM, applied to the entire tumour.

Oxygen Distributions—Evaluation of Computational Methods, Using a Stochastic Model for Large Tumour Vasculature, to Elucidate the Importance of Considering a Complete Vascular Network

PubMed Central

Bernhardt, Peter

2016-01-01

Purpose To develop a general model that utilises a stochastic method to generate a vessel tree based on experimental data, and an associated irregular, macroscopic tumour. These will be used to evaluate two different methods for computing oxygen distribution. Methods A vessel tree structure, and an associated tumour of 127 cm3, were generated, using a stochastic method and Bresenham’s line algorithm to develop trees on two different scales and fusing them together. The vessel dimensions were adjusted through convolution and thresholding and each vessel voxel was assigned an oxygen value. Diffusion and consumption were modelled using a Green’s function approach together with Michaelis-Menten kinetics. The computations were performed using a combined tree method (CTM) and an individual tree method (ITM). Five tumour sub-sections were compared, to evaluate the methods. Results The oxygen distributions of the same tissue samples, using different methods of computation, were considerably less similar (root mean square deviation, RMSD≈0.02) than the distributions of different samples using CTM (0.001< RMSD<0.01). The deviations of ITM from CTM increase with lower oxygen values, resulting in ITM severely underestimating the level of hypoxia in the tumour. Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS) tests showed that millimetre-scale samples may not represent the whole. Conclusions The stochastic model managed to capture the heterogeneous nature of hypoxic fractions and, even though the simplified computation did not considerably alter the oxygen distribution, it leads to an evident underestimation of tumour hypoxia, and thereby radioresistance. For a trustworthy computation of tumour oxygenation, the interaction between adjacent microvessel trees must not be neglected, why evaluation should be made using high resolution and the CTM, applied to the entire tumour. PMID:27861529

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sampling strategies for improving tree accuracy and phylogenetic analyses: a case study in ciliate protists, with notes on the genus Paramecium.

PubMed

Yi, Zhenzhen; Strüder-Kypke, Michaela; Hu, Xiaozhong; Lin, Xiaofeng; Song, Weibo

2014-02-01

In order to assess how dataset-selection for multi-gene analyses affects the accuracy of inferred phylogenetic trees in ciliates, we chose five genes and the genus Paramecium, one of the most widely used model protist genera, and compared tree topologies of the single- and multi-gene analyses. Our empirical study shows that: (1) Using multiple genes improves phylogenetic accuracy, even when their one-gene topologies are in conflict with each other. (2) The impact of missing data on phylogenetic accuracy is ambiguous: resolution power and topological similarity, but not number of represented taxa, are the most important criteria of a dataset for inclusion in concatenated analyses. (3) As an example, we tested the three classification models of the genus Paramecium with a multi-gene based approach, and only the monophyly of the subgenus Paramecium is supported. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Artificial Intelligence Procedures for Tree Taper Estimation within a Complex Vegetation Mosaic in Brazil

PubMed Central

Nunes, Matheus Henrique

2016-01-01

Tree stem form in native tropical forests is very irregular, posing a challenge to establishing taper equations that can accurately predict the diameter at any height along the stem and subsequently merchantable volume. Artificial intelligence approaches can be useful techniques in minimizing estimation errors within complex variations of vegetation. We evaluated the performance of Random Forest® regression tree and Artificial Neural Network procedures in modelling stem taper. Diameters and volume outside bark were compared to a traditional taper-based equation across a tropical Brazilian savanna, a seasonal semi-deciduous forest and a rainforest. Neural network models were found to be more accurate than the traditional taper equation. Random forest showed trends in the residuals from the diameter prediction and provided the least precise and accurate estimations for all forest types. This study provides insights into the superiority of a neural network, which provided advantages regarding the handling of local effects. PMID:27187074

Artificial Intelligence Procedures for Tree Taper Estimation within a Complex Vegetation Mosaic in Brazil.

PubMed

Nunes, Matheus Henrique; Görgens, Eric Bastos

2016-01-01

Tree stem form in native tropical forests is very irregular, posing a challenge to establishing taper equations that can accurately predict the diameter at any height along the stem and subsequently merchantable volume. Artificial intelligence approaches can be useful techniques in minimizing estimation errors within complex variations of vegetation. We evaluated the performance of Random Forest® regression tree and Artificial Neural Network procedures in modelling stem taper. Diameters and volume outside bark were compared to a traditional taper-based equation across a tropical Brazilian savanna, a seasonal semi-deciduous forest and a rainforest. Neural network models were found to be more accurate than the traditional taper equation. Random forest showed trends in the residuals from the diameter prediction and provided the least precise and accurate estimations for all forest types. This study provides insights into the superiority of a neural network, which provided advantages regarding the handling of local effects.

A novel approach for individual tree crown delineation using lidar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao

Individual tree crown delineation (ITCD) is an important technique to support precision forestry. ITCD is particularly difficult for deciduous forests where the existence of multiple branches can lead to false tree top detection. This thesis focused on developing a new ITCD model, which consists of two components: (1) boundary refinement using a novel algorithm called Fishing Net Dragging (FiND), and (2) segment merging using boundary classification. The proposed ITCD model was tested in both deciduous and mixed forests, attaining an overall accuracy of 74% and 78%, respectively. This compared favorably to an ITCD method commonly cited in the literature, which attained 41% and 51% on the same plots. To facilitate comparison of research in the ITCD community, this thesis also developed a new accuracy assessment scheme for ITCD. This new accuracy assessment is easy to interpret and convenient to implement while comprehensively evaluating ITCD accuracy.

Short Tree, Long Tree, Right Tree, Wrong Tree: New Acquisition Bias Corrections for Inferring SNP Phylogenies

PubMed Central

Leaché, Adam D.; Banbury, Barbara L.; Felsenstein, Joseph; de Oca, Adrián nieto-Montes; Stamatakis, Alexandros

2015-01-01

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are useful markers for phylogenetic studies owing in part to their ubiquity throughout the genome and ease of collection. Restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) methods are becoming increasingly popular for SNP data collection, but an assessment of the best practises for using these data in phylogenetics is lacking. We use computer simulations, and new double digest RADseq (ddRADseq) data for the lizard family Phrynosomatidae, to investigate the accuracy of RAD loci for phylogenetic inference. We compare the two primary ways RAD loci are used during phylogenetic analysis, including the analysis of full sequences (i.e., SNPs together with invariant sites), or the analysis of SNPs on their own after excluding invariant sites. We find that using full sequences rather than just SNPs is preferable from the perspectives of branch length and topological accuracy, but not of computational time. We introduce two new acquisition bias corrections for dealing with alignments composed exclusively of SNPs, a conditional likelihood method and a reconstituted DNA approach. The conditional likelihood method conditions on the presence of variable characters only (the number of invariant sites that are unsampled but known to exist is not considered), while the reconstituted DNA approach requires the user to specify the exact number of unsampled invariant sites prior to the analysis. Under simulation, branch length biases increase with the amount of missing data for both acquisition bias correction methods, but branch length accuracy is much improved in the reconstituted DNA approach compared to the conditional likelihood approach. Phylogenetic analyses of the empirical data using concatenation or a coalescent-based species tree approach provide strong support for many of the accepted relationships among phrynosomatid lizards, suggesting that RAD loci contain useful phylogenetic signal across a range of divergence times despite the presence of missing data. Phylogenetic analysis of RAD loci requires careful attention to model assumptions, especially if downstream analyses depend on branch lengths. PMID:26227865

Quantifying tree mortality in a mixed species woodland using multitemporal high spatial resolution satellite imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garrity, Steven R.; Allen, Craig D.; Brumby, Steven P.; Gangodagamage, Chandana; McDowell, Nate G.; Cai, D. Michael

2013-01-01

Widespread tree mortality events have recently been observed in several biomes. To effectively quantify the severity and extent of these events, tools that allow for rapid assessment at the landscape scale are required. Past studies using high spatial resolution satellite imagery have primarily focused on detecting green, red, and gray tree canopies during and shortly after tree damage or mortality has occurred. However, detecting trees in various stages of death is not always possible due to limited availability of archived satellite imagery. Here we assess the capability of high spatial resolution satellite imagery for tree mortality detection in a southwestern U.S. mixed species woodland using archived satellite images acquired prior to mortality and well after dead trees had dropped their leaves. We developed a multistep classification approach that uses: supervised masking of non-tree image elements; bi-temporal (pre- and post-mortality) differencing of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and red:green ratio (RGI); and unsupervised multivariate clustering of pixels into live and dead tree classes using a Gaussian mixture model. Classification accuracies were improved in a final step by tuning the rules of pixel classification using the posterior probabilities of class membership obtained from the Gaussian mixture model. Classifications were produced for two images acquired post-mortality with overall accuracies of 97.9% and 98.5%, respectively. Classified images were combined with land cover data to characterize the spatiotemporal characteristics of tree mortality across areas with differences in tree species composition. We found that 38% of tree crown area was lost during the drought period between 2002 and 2006. The majority of tree mortality during this period was concentrated in piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodlands. An additional 20% of the tree canopy died or was removed between 2006 and 2011, primarily in areas experiencing wildfire and management activity. -Our results demonstrate that unsupervised clustering of bi-temporal NDVI and RGI differences can be used to detect tree mortality resulting from numerous causes and in several forest cover types.

Characterization of Forest Opacity Using Multi-Angular Emission and Backscatter Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurum, Mehmet; O'Neill, Peggy; Lang, Roger H.; Joseph, Alicia T.; Cosh, Michael H.; Jackson, Thomas J.

2010-01-01

This paper discusses the results from a series of field experiments using ground-based L-band microwave active/passive sensors. Three independent approaches are employed to the microwave data to determine vegetation opacity of coniferous trees. First, a zero-order radiative transfer model is fitted to multi-angular microwave emissivity data in a least-square sense to provide "effective" vegetation optical depth. Second, a ratio between radar backscatter measurements with the corner reflector under trees and in an open area is calculated to obtain "measured" tree propagation characteristics. Finally, the "theoretical" propagation constant is determined by forward scattering theorem using detailed measurements of size/angle distributions and dielectric constants of the tree constituents (trunk, branches, and needles). The results indicate that "effective" values underestimate attenuation values compared to both "theoretical" and "measured" values.

A likelihood-based time series modeling approach for application in dendrochronology to examine the growth-climate relations and forest disturbance history

EPA Science Inventory

A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for ...

Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

PubMed

Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

2018-01-01

Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spam comments prediction using stacking with ensemble learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmood, Arif; On, Byung-Won; Lee, Ingyu; Ashraf, Imran; Choi, Gyu Sang

2018-01-01

Illusive comments of product or services are misleading for people in decision making. The current methodologies to predict deceptive comments are concerned for feature designing with single training model. Indigenous features have ability to show some linguistic phenomena but are hard to reveal the latent semantic meaning of the comments. We propose a prediction model on general features of documents using stacking with ensemble learning. Term Frequency/Inverse Document Frequency (TF/IDF) features are inputs to stacking of Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Trees and the outputs of the base learners are encapsulated with decision tree to make final training of the model. The results exhibits that our approach gives the accuracy of 92.19% which outperform the state-of-the-art method.

Structural modeling and analysis of an effluent treatment process for electroplating--a graph theoretic approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Abhishek; Clement, Shibu; Agrawal, V P

2010-07-15

An attempt is made to address a few ecological and environment issues by developing different structural models for effluent treatment system for electroplating. The effluent treatment system is defined with the help of different subsystems contributing to waste minimization. Hierarchical tree and block diagram showing all possible interactions among subsystems are proposed. These non-mathematical diagrams are converted into mathematical models for design improvement, analysis, comparison, storage retrieval and commercially off-the-shelf purchases of different subsystems. This is achieved by developing graph theoretic model, matrix models and variable permanent function model. Analysis is carried out by permanent function, hierarchical tree and block diagram methods. Storage and retrieval is done using matrix models. The methodology is illustrated with the help of an example. Benefits to the electroplaters/end user are identified. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomic Infectious Disease Epidemiology in Partially Sampled and Ongoing Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Didelot, Xavier; Fraser, Christophe; Gardy, Jennifer; Colijn, Caroline

2017-01-01

Abstract Genomic data are increasingly being used to understand infectious disease epidemiology. Isolates from a given outbreak are sequenced, and the patterns of shared variation are used to infer which isolates within the outbreak are most closely related to each other. Unfortunately, the phylogenetic trees typically used to represent this variation are not directly informative about who infected whom—a phylogenetic tree is not a transmission tree. However, a transmission tree can be inferred from a phylogeny while accounting for within-host genetic diversity by coloring the branches of a phylogeny according to which host those branches were in. Here we extend this approach and show that it can be applied to partially sampled and ongoing outbreaks. This requires computing the correct probability of an observed transmission tree and we herein demonstrate how to do this for a large class of epidemiological models. We also demonstrate how the branch coloring approach can incorporate a variable number of unique colors to represent unsampled intermediates in transmission chains. The resulting algorithm is a reversible jump Monte–Carlo Markov Chain, which we apply to both simulated data and real data from an outbreak of tuberculosis. By accounting for unsampled cases and an outbreak which may not have reached its end, our method is uniquely suited to use in a public health environment during real-time outbreak investigations. We implemented this transmission tree inference methodology in an R package called TransPhylo, which is freely available from https://github.com/xavierdidelot/TransPhylo. PMID:28100788

The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees.

PubMed

Deb, Jiban C; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A

2017-04-01

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal ( Shorea robusta ) and Garjan ( Dipterocarpus turbinatus ) form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change-driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence-only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool "MaxEnt" (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.

Stemflow estimation in a redwood forest using model-based stratified random sampling

Treesearch

Jack Lewis

2003-01-01

Model-based stratified sampling is illustrated by a case study of stemflow volume in a redwood forest. The approach is actually a model-assisted sampling design in which auxiliary information (tree diameter) is utilized in the design of stratum boundaries to optimize the efficiency of a regression or ratio estimator. The auxiliary information is utilized in both the...

Mastectomy or breast conserving surgery? Factors affecting type of surgical treatment for breast cancer--a classification tree approach.

PubMed

Martin, Michael A; Meyricke, Ramona; O'Neill, Terry; Roberts, Steven

2006-04-20

A critical choice facing breast cancer patients is which surgical treatment--mastectomy or breast conserving surgery (BCS)--is most appropriate. Several studies have investigated factors that impact the type of surgery chosen, identifying features such as place of residence, age at diagnosis, tumor size, socio-economic and racial/ethnic elements as relevant. Such assessment of "propensity" is important in understanding issues such as a reported under-utilisation of BCS among women for whom such treatment was not contraindicated. Using Western Australian (WA) data, we further examine the factors associated with the type of surgical treatment for breast cancer using a classification tree approach. This approach deals naturally with complicated interactions between factors, and so allows flexible and interpretable models for treatment choice to be built that add to the current understanding of this complex decision process. Data was extracted from the WA Cancer Registry on women diagnosed with breast cancer in WA from 1990 to 2000. Subjects' treatment preferences were predicted from covariates using both classification trees and logistic regression. Tumor size was the primary determinant of patient choice, subjects with tumors smaller than 20 mm in diameter preferring BCS. For subjects with tumors greater than 20 mm in diameter factors such as patient age, nodal status, and tumor histology become relevant as predictors of patient choice. Classification trees perform as well as logistic regression for predicting patient choice, but are much easier to interpret for clinical use. The selected tree can inform clinicians' advice to patients.

An efficient and extensible approach for compressing phylogenetic trees

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Biologists require new algorithms to efficiently compress and store their large collections of phylogenetic trees. Our previous work showed that TreeZip is a promising approach for compressing phylogenetic trees. In this paper, we extend our TreeZip algorithm by handling trees with weighted branches. Furthermore, by using the compressed TreeZip file as input, we have designed an extensible decompressor that can extract subcollections of trees, compute majority and strict consensus trees, and merge tree collections using set operations such as union, intersection, and set difference. Results On unweighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress Newick files in excess of 98%. On weighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress a Newick file by at least 73%. TreeZip can be combined with 7zip with little overhead, allowing space savings in excess of 99% (unweighted) and 92%(weighted). Unlike TreeZip, 7zip is not immune to branch rotations, and performs worse as the level of variability in the Newick string representation increases. Finally, since the TreeZip compressed text (TRZ) file contains all the semantic information in a collection of trees, we can easily filter and decompress a subset of trees of interest (such as the set of unique trees), or build the resulting consensus tree in a matter of seconds. We also show the ease of which set operations can be performed on TRZ files, at speeds quicker than those performed on Newick or 7zip compressed Newick files, and without loss of space savings. Conclusions TreeZip is an efficient approach for compressing large collections of phylogenetic trees. The semantic and compact nature of the TRZ file allow it to be operated upon directly and quickly, without a need to decompress the original Newick file. We believe that TreeZip will be vital for compressing and archiving trees in the biological community. PMID:22165819

An efficient and extensible approach for compressing phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Matthews, Suzanne J; Williams, Tiffani L

2011-10-18

Biologists require new algorithms to efficiently compress and store their large collections of phylogenetic trees. Our previous work showed that TreeZip is a promising approach for compressing phylogenetic trees. In this paper, we extend our TreeZip algorithm by handling trees with weighted branches. Furthermore, by using the compressed TreeZip file as input, we have designed an extensible decompressor that can extract subcollections of trees, compute majority and strict consensus trees, and merge tree collections using set operations such as union, intersection, and set difference. On unweighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress Newick files in excess of 98%. On weighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress a Newick file by at least 73%. TreeZip can be combined with 7zip with little overhead, allowing space savings in excess of 99% (unweighted) and 92%(weighted). Unlike TreeZip, 7zip is not immune to branch rotations, and performs worse as the level of variability in the Newick string representation increases. Finally, since the TreeZip compressed text (TRZ) file contains all the semantic information in a collection of trees, we can easily filter and decompress a subset of trees of interest (such as the set of unique trees), or build the resulting consensus tree in a matter of seconds. We also show the ease of which set operations can be performed on TRZ files, at speeds quicker than those performed on Newick or 7zip compressed Newick files, and without loss of space savings. TreeZip is an efficient approach for compressing large collections of phylogenetic trees. The semantic and compact nature of the TRZ file allow it to be operated upon directly and quickly, without a need to decompress the original Newick file. We believe that TreeZip will be vital for compressing and archiving trees in the biological community.

Applying an Ensemble Classification Tree Approach to the Prediction of Completion of a 12-Step Facilitation Intervention with Stimulant Abusers

PubMed Central

Doyle, Suzanne R.; Donovan, Dennis M.

2014-01-01

Aims The purpose of this study was to explore the selection of predictor variables in the evaluation of drug treatment completion using an ensemble approach with classification trees. The basic methodology is reviewed and the subagging procedure of random subsampling is applied. Methods Among 234 individuals with stimulant use disorders randomized to a 12-Step facilitative intervention shown to increase stimulant use abstinence, 67.52% were classified as treatment completers. A total of 122 baseline variables were used to identify factors associated with completion. Findings The number of types of self-help activity involvement prior to treatment was the predominant predictor. Other effective predictors included better coping self-efficacy for substance use in high-risk situations, more days of prior meeting attendance, greater acceptance of the Disease model, higher confidence for not resuming use following discharge, lower ASI Drug and Alcohol composite scores, negative urine screens for cocaine or marijuana, and fewer employment problems. Conclusions The application of an ensemble subsampling regression tree method utilizes the fact that classification trees are unstable but, on average, produce an improved prediction of the completion of drug abuse treatment. The results support the notion there are early indicators of treatment completion that may allow for modification of approaches more tailored to fitting the needs of individuals and potentially provide more successful treatment engagement and improved outcomes. PMID:25134038

Automated morphological analysis of bone marrow cells in microscopic images for diagnosis of leukemia: nucleus-plasma separation and cell classification using a hierarchical tree model of hematopoesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krappe, Sebastian; Wittenberg, Thomas; Haferlach, Torsten; Münzenmayer, Christian

2016-03-01

The morphological differentiation of bone marrow is fundamental for the diagnosis of leukemia. Currently, the counting and classification of the different types of bone marrow cells is done manually under the use of bright field microscopy. This is a time-consuming, subjective, tedious and error-prone process. Furthermore, repeated examinations of a slide may yield intra- and inter-observer variances. For that reason a computer assisted diagnosis system for bone marrow differentiation is pursued. In this work we focus (a) on a new method for the separation of nucleus and plasma parts and (b) on a knowledge-based hierarchical tree classifier for the differentiation of bone marrow cells in 16 different classes. Classification trees are easily interpretable and understandable and provide a classification together with an explanation. Using classification trees, expert knowledge (i.e. knowledge about similar classes and cell lines in the tree model of hematopoiesis) is integrated in the structure of the tree. The proposed segmentation method is evaluated with more than 10,000 manually segmented cells. For the evaluation of the proposed hierarchical classifier more than 140,000 automatically segmented bone marrow cells are used. Future automated solutions for the morphological analysis of bone marrow smears could potentially apply such an approach for the pre-classification of bone marrow cells and thereby shortening the examination time.

Using a multinomial tree model for detecting mixtures in perceptual detection

PubMed Central

Chechile, Richard A.

2014-01-01

In the area of memory research there have been two rival approaches for memory measurement—signal detection theory (SDT) and multinomial processing trees (MPT). Both approaches provide measures for the quality of the memory representation, and both approaches provide for corrections for response bias. In recent years there has been a strong case advanced for the MPT approach because of the finding of stochastic mixtures on both target-present and target-absent tests. In this paper a case is made that perceptual detection, like memory recognition, involves a mixture of processes that are readily represented as a MPT model. The Chechile (2004) 6P memory measurement model is modified in order to apply to the case of perceptual detection. This new MPT model is called the Perceptual Detection (PD) model. The properties of the PD model are developed, and the model is applied to some existing data of a radiologist examining CT scans. The PD model brings out novel features that were absent from a standard SDT analysis. Also the topic of optimal parameter estimation on an individual-observer basis is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. These simulations reveal that the mean of the Bayesian posterior distribution is a more accurate estimator than the corresponding maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Monte Carlo simulations also indicate that model estimates based on only the data from an individual observer can be improved upon (in the sense of being more accurate) by an adjustment that takes into account the parameter estimate based on the data pooled across all the observers. The adjustment of the estimate for an individual is discussed as an analogous statistical effect to the improvement over the individual MLE demonstrated by the James–Stein shrinkage estimator in the case of the multiple-group normal model. PMID:25018741

Visual exploration of parameter influence on phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Hess, Martin; Bremm, Sebastian; Weissgraeber, Stephanie; Hamacher, Kay; Goesele, Michael; Wiemeyer, Josef; von Landesberger, Tatiana

2014-01-01

Evolutionary relationships between organisms are frequently derived as phylogenetic trees inferred from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). The MSA parameter space is exponentially large, so tens of thousands of potential trees can emerge for each dataset. A proposed visual-analytics approach can reveal the parameters' impact on the trees. Given input trees created with different parameter settings, it hierarchically clusters the trees according to their structural similarity. The most important clusters of similar trees are shown together with their parameters. This view offers interactive parameter exploration and automatic identification of relevant parameters. Biologists applied this approach to real data of 16S ribosomal RNA and protein sequences of ion channels. It revealed which parameters affected the tree structures. This led to a more reliable selection of the best trees.

Genome-wide comparative analysis of phylogenetic trees: the prokaryotic forest of life.

PubMed

Puigbò, Pere; Wolf, Yuri I; Koonin, Eugene V

2012-01-01

Genome-wide comparison of phylogenetic trees is becoming an increasingly common approach in evolutionary genomics, and a variety of approaches for such comparison have been developed. In this article, we present several methods for comparative analysis of large numbers of phylogenetic trees. To compare phylogenetic trees taking into account the bootstrap support for each internal branch, the Boot-Split Distance (BSD) method is introduced as an extension of the previously developed Split Distance method for tree comparison. The BSD method implements the straightforward idea that comparison of phylogenetic trees can be made more robust by treating tree splits differentially depending on the bootstrap support. Approaches are also introduced for detecting tree-like and net-like evolutionary trends in the phylogenetic Forest of Life (FOL), i.e., the entirety of the phylogenetic trees for conserved genes of prokaryotes. The principal method employed for this purpose includes mapping quartets of species onto trees to calculate the support of each quartet topology and so to quantify the tree and net contributions to the distances between species. We describe the application of these methods to analyze the FOL and the results obtained with these methods. These results support the concept of the Tree of Life (TOL) as a central evolutionary trend in the FOL as opposed to the traditional view of the TOL as a "species tree."

A Tree Based Broadcast Scheme for (m, k)-firm Real-Time Stream in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Park, HoSung; Kim, Beom-Su; Kim, Kyong Hoon; Shah, Babar; Kim, Ki-Il

2017-01-01

Recently, various unicast routing protocols have been proposed to deliver measured data from the sensor node to the sink node within the predetermined deadline in wireless sensor networks. In parallel with their approaches, some applications demand the specific service, which is based on broadcast to all nodes within the deadline, the feasible real-time traffic model and improvements in energy efficiency. However, current protocols based on either flooding or one-to-one unicast cannot meet the above requirements entirely. Moreover, as far as the authors know, there is no study for the real-time broadcast protocol to support the application-specific traffic model in WSN yet. Based on the above analysis, in this paper, we propose a new (m, k)-firm-based Real-time Broadcast Protocol (FRBP) by constructing a broadcast tree to satisfy the (m, k)-firm, which is applicable to the real-time model in resource-constrained WSNs. The broadcast tree in FRBP is constructed by the distance-based priority scheme, whereas energy efficiency is improved by selecting as few as nodes on a tree possible. To overcome the unstable network environment, the recovery scheme invokes rapid partial tree reconstruction in order to designate another node as the parent on a tree according to the measured (m, k)-firm real-time condition and local states monitoring. Finally, simulation results are given to demonstrate the superiority of FRBP compared to the existing schemes in terms of average deadline missing ratio, average throughput and energy consumption. PMID:29120404

Eigenvalues of normalized Laplacian matrices of fractal trees and dendrimers: Analytical results and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julaiti, Alafate; Wu, Bin; Zhang, Zhongzhi

2013-05-01

The eigenvalues of the normalized Laplacian matrix of a network play an important role in its structural and dynamical aspects associated with the network. In this paper, we study the spectra and their applications of normalized Laplacian matrices of a family of fractal trees and dendrimers modeled by Cayley trees, both of which are built in an iterative way. For the fractal trees, we apply the spectral decimation approach to determine analytically all the eigenvalues and their corresponding multiplicities, with the eigenvalues provided by a recursive relation governing the eigenvalues of networks at two successive generations. For Cayley trees, we show that all their eigenvalues can be obtained by computing the roots of several small-degree polynomials defined recursively. By using the relation between normalized Laplacian spectra and eigentime identity, we derive the explicit solution to the eigentime identity for random walks on the two treelike networks, the leading scalings of which follow quite different behaviors. In addition, we corroborate the obtained eigenvalues and their degeneracies through the link between them and the number of spanning trees.

Modelling nitrate pollution pressure using a multivariate statistical approach: the case of Kinshasa groundwater body, Democratic Republic of Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Ndembo Longo, Jean; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-03-01

A multivariate statistical modelling approach was applied to explain the anthropogenic pressure of nitrate pollution on the Kinshasa groundwater body (Democratic Republic of Congo). Multiple regression and regression tree models were compared and used to identify major environmental factors that control the groundwater nitrate concentration in this region. The analyses were made in terms of physical attributes related to the topography, land use, geology and hydrogeology in the capture zone of different groundwater sampling stations. For the nitrate data, groundwater datasets from two different surveys were used. The statistical models identified the topography, the residential area, the service land (cemetery), and the surface-water land-use classes as major factors explaining nitrate occurrence in the groundwater. Also, groundwater nitrate pollution depends not on one single factor but on the combined influence of factors representing nitrogen loading sources and aquifer susceptibility characteristics. The groundwater nitrate pressure was better predicted with the regression tree model than with the multiple regression model. Furthermore, the results elucidated the sensitivity of the model performance towards the method of delineation of the capture zones. For pollution modelling at the monitoring points, therefore, it is better to identify capture-zone shapes based on a conceptual hydrogeological model rather than to adopt arbitrary circular capture zones.

MINER: exploratory analysis of gene interaction networks by machine learning from expression data.

PubMed

Kadupitige, Sidath Randeni; Leung, Kin Chun; Sellmeier, Julia; Sivieng, Jane; Catchpoole, Daniel R; Bain, Michael E; Gaëta, Bruno A

2009-12-03

The reconstruction of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput "omics" data has become a major goal in the modelling of living systems. Numerous approaches have been proposed, most of which attempt only "one-shot" reconstruction of the whole network with no intervention from the user, or offer only simple correlation analysis to infer gene dependencies. We have developed MINER (Microarray Interactive Network Exploration and Representation), an application that combines multivariate non-linear tree learning of individual gene regulatory dependencies, visualisation of these dependencies as both trees and networks, and representation of known biological relationships based on common Gene Ontology annotations. MINER allows biologists to explore the dependencies influencing the expression of individual genes in a gene expression data set in the form of decision, model or regression trees, using their domain knowledge to guide the exploration and formulate hypotheses. Multiple trees can then be summarised in the form of a gene network diagram. MINER is being adopted by several of our collaborators and has already led to the discovery of a new significant regulatory relationship with subsequent experimental validation. Unlike most gene regulatory network inference methods, MINER allows the user to start from genes of interest and build the network gene-by-gene, incorporating domain expertise in the process. This approach has been used successfully with RNA microarray data but is applicable to other quantitative data produced by high-throughput technologies such as proteomics and "next generation" DNA sequencing.

FISHtrees 3.0: Tumor Phylogenetics Using a Ploidy Probe.

PubMed

Gertz, E Michael; Chowdhury, Salim Akhter; Lee, Woei-Jyh; Wangsa, Darawalee; Heselmeyer-Haddad, Kerstin; Ried, Thomas; Schwartz, Russell; Schäffer, Alejandro A

2016-01-01

Advances in fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) make it feasible to detect multiple copy-number changes in hundreds of cells of solid tumors. Studies using FISH, sequencing, and other technologies have revealed substantial intra-tumor heterogeneity. The evolution of subclones in tumors may be modeled by phylogenies. Tumors often harbor aneuploid or polyploid cell populations. Using a FISH probe to estimate changes in ploidy can guide the creation of trees that model changes in ploidy and individual gene copy-number variations. We present FISHtrees 3.0, which implements a ploidy-based tree building method based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The ploidy-based modeling in FISHtrees includes a new formulation of the problem of merging trees for changes of a single gene into trees modeling changes in multiple genes and the ploidy. When multiple samples are collected from each patient, varying over time or tumor regions, it is useful to evaluate similarities in tumor progression among the samples. Therefore, we further implemented in FISHtrees 3.0 a new method to build consensus graphs for multiple samples. We validate FISHtrees 3.0 on a simulated data and on FISH data from paired cases of cervical primary and metastatic tumors and on paired breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). Tests on simulated data show improved accuracy of the ploidy-based approach relative to prior ploidyless methods. Tests on real data further demonstrate novel insights these methods offer into tumor progression processes. Trees for DCIS samples are significantly less complex than trees for paired IDC samples. Consensus graphs show substantial divergence among most paired samples from both sets. Low consensus between DCIS and IDC trees may help explain the difficulty in finding biomarkers that predict which DCIS cases are at most risk to progress to IDC. The FISHtrees software is available at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nih.gov/pub/FISHtrees.

FISHtrees 3.0: Tumor Phylogenetics Using a Ploidy Probe

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Salim Akhter; Lee, Woei-Jyh; Wangsa, Darawalee; Heselmeyer-Haddad, Kerstin; Ried, Thomas; Schwartz, Russell; Schäffer, Alejandro A.

2016-01-01

Advances in fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) make it feasible to detect multiple copy-number changes in hundreds of cells of solid tumors. Studies using FISH, sequencing, and other technologies have revealed substantial intra-tumor heterogeneity. The evolution of subclones in tumors may be modeled by phylogenies. Tumors often harbor aneuploid or polyploid cell populations. Using a FISH probe to estimate changes in ploidy can guide the creation of trees that model changes in ploidy and individual gene copy-number variations. We present FISHtrees 3.0, which implements a ploidy-based tree building method based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The ploidy-based modeling in FISHtrees includes a new formulation of the problem of merging trees for changes of a single gene into trees modeling changes in multiple genes and the ploidy. When multiple samples are collected from each patient, varying over time or tumor regions, it is useful to evaluate similarities in tumor progression among the samples. Therefore, we further implemented in FISHtrees 3.0 a new method to build consensus graphs for multiple samples. We validate FISHtrees 3.0 on a simulated data and on FISH data from paired cases of cervical primary and metastatic tumors and on paired breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). Tests on simulated data show improved accuracy of the ploidy-based approach relative to prior ploidyless methods. Tests on real data further demonstrate novel insights these methods offer into tumor progression processes. Trees for DCIS samples are significantly less complex than trees for paired IDC samples. Consensus graphs show substantial divergence among most paired samples from both sets. Low consensus between DCIS and IDC trees may help explain the difficulty in finding biomarkers that predict which DCIS cases are at most risk to progress to IDC. The FISHtrees software is available at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nih.gov/pub/FISHtrees. PMID:27362268

Do persistently fast-growing juveniles contribute disproportionately to population growth? A new analysis tool for matrix models and its application to rainforest trees.

PubMed

Zuidema, Pieter A; Brienen, Roel J W; During, Heinjo J; Güneralp, Burak

2009-11-01

Plants and animals often exhibit strong and persistent growth variation among individuals within a species. Persistently fast-growing individuals have a higher chance of reaching reproductive size, do so at a younger age, and therefore contribute disproportionately to population growth (lambda). Here we introduce a new approach to quantify this "fast-growth effect." We propose using age-size-structured matrix models in which persistently fast and slow growers are distinguished as they occur in relatively young and old age classes for a given size category. Life-cycle pathways involving fast growth can then be identified, and their contribution to lambda is quantified through loop analysis. We applied this approach to an example species, the tropical rainforest tree Cedrela odorata, that shows persistent growth variation among individuals. Loop analysis showed that juvenile trees reaching the 10-cm diameter class at below-median age contributed twice as much to lambda as slow juvenile growers. Fast growth to larger-diameter categories also contributed disproportionately to lambda. The results were robust to changes in parameter values and life-history trade-offs. These results show that the fast-growth effect can be strong in long-lived species. Persistent growth differences among individuals should therefore be accommodated for in demographic models and life-history studies.

A nearest-neighbor imputation approach to mapping tree species over large areas using forest inventory plots and moderate resolution raster data

Treesearch

B. Tyler Wilson; Andrew J. Lister; Rachel I. Riemann

2012-01-01

The paper describes an efficient approach for mapping multiple individual tree species over large spatial domains. The method integrates vegetation phenology derived from MODIS imagery and raster data describing relevant environmental parameters with extensive field plot data of tree species basal area to create maps of tree species abundance and distribution at a 250-...

Crown-level tree species classification from AISA hyperspectral imagery using an innovative pixel-weighting approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haijian; Wu, Changshan

2018-06-01

Crown-level tree species classification is a challenging task due to the spectral similarity among different tree species. Shadow, underlying objects, and other materials within a crown may decrease the purity of extracted crown spectra and further reduce classification accuracy. To address this problem, an innovative pixel-weighting approach was developed for tree species classification at the crown level. The method utilized high density discrete LiDAR data for individual tree delineation and Airborne Imaging Spectrometer for Applications (AISA) hyperspectral imagery for pure crown-scale spectra extraction. Specifically, three steps were included: 1) individual tree identification using LiDAR data, 2) pixel-weighted representative crown spectra calculation using hyperspectral imagery, with which pixel-based illuminated-leaf fractions estimated using a linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) were employed as weighted factors, and 3) representative spectra based tree species classification was performed through applying a support vector machine (SVM) approach. Analysis of results suggests that the developed pixel-weighting approach (OA = 82.12%, Kc = 0.74) performed better than treetop-based (OA = 70.86%, Kc = 0.58) and pixel-majority methods (OA = 72.26, Kc = 0.62) in terms of classification accuracy. McNemar tests indicated the differences in accuracy between pixel-weighting and treetop-based approaches as well as that between pixel-weighting and pixel-majority approaches were statistically significant.

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

PubMed

Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

2015-01-01

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

2015-01-01

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality. PMID:26267446

On the salty side of life: molecular, physiological and anatomical adaptation and acclimation of trees to extreme habitats.

PubMed

Polle, Andrea; Chen, Shaoliang

2015-09-01

Saline and sodic soils that cannot be used for agriculture occur worldwide. Cultivating stress-tolerant trees to obtain biomass from salinized areas has been suggested. Various tree species of economic importance for fruit, fibre and timber production exhibit high salinity tolerance. Little is known about the mechanisms enabling tree crops to cope with high salinity for extended periods. Here, the molecular, physiological and anatomical adjustments underlying salt tolerance in glycophytic and halophytic model tree species, such as Populus euphratica in terrestrial habitats, and mangrove species along coastlines are reviewed. Key mechanisms that have been identified as mediating salt tolerance are discussed at scales from the genetic to the morphological level, including leaf succulence and structural adjustments of wood anatomy. The genetic and transcriptomic bases for physiological salt acclimation are salt sensing and signalling networks that activate target genes; the target genes keep reactive oxygen species under control, maintain the ion balance and restore water status. Evolutionary adaptation includes gene duplication in these pathways. Strategies for and limitations to tree improvement, particularly transgenic approaches for increasing salt tolerance by transforming trees with single and multiple candidate genes, are discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tree diversity and species identity effects on soil fungi, protists and animals are context dependent

PubMed Central

Tedersoo, Leho; Bahram, Mohammad; Cajthaml, Tomáš; Põlme, Sergei; Hiiesalu, Indrek; Anslan, Sten; Harend, Helery; Buegger, Franz; Pritsch, Karin; Koricheva, Julia; Abarenkov, Kessy

2016-01-01

Plant species richness and the presence of certain influential species (sampling effect) drive the stability and functionality of ecosystems as well as primary production and biomass of consumers. However, little is known about these floristic effects on richness and community composition of soil biota in forest habitats owing to methodological constraints. We developed a DNA metabarcoding approach to identify the major eukaryote groups directly from soil with roughly species-level resolution. Using this method, we examined the effects of tree diversity and individual tree species on soil microbial biomass and taxonomic richness of soil biota in two experimental study systems in Finland and Estonia and accounted for edaphic variables and spatial autocorrelation. Our analyses revealed that the effects of tree diversity and individual species on soil biota are largely context dependent. Multiple regression and structural equation modelling suggested that biomass, soil pH, nutrients and tree species directly affect richness of different taxonomic groups. The community composition of most soil organisms was strongly correlated due to similar response to environmental predictors rather than causal relationships. On a local scale, soil resources and tree species have stronger effect on diversity of soil biota than tree species richness per se. PMID:26172210

Tree diversity and species identity effects on soil fungi, protists and animals are context dependent.

PubMed

Tedersoo, Leho; Bahram, Mohammad; Cajthaml, Tomáš; Põlme, Sergei; Hiiesalu, Indrek; Anslan, Sten; Harend, Helery; Buegger, Franz; Pritsch, Karin; Koricheva, Julia; Abarenkov, Kessy

2016-02-01

Plant species richness and the presence of certain influential species (sampling effect) drive the stability and functionality of ecosystems as well as primary production and biomass of consumers. However, little is known about these floristic effects on richness and community composition of soil biota in forest habitats owing to methodological constraints. We developed a DNA metabarcoding approach to identify the major eukaryote groups directly from soil with roughly species-level resolution. Using this method, we examined the effects of tree diversity and individual tree species on soil microbial biomass and taxonomic richness of soil biota in two experimental study systems in Finland and Estonia and accounted for edaphic variables and spatial autocorrelation. Our analyses revealed that the effects of tree diversity and individual species on soil biota are largely context dependent. Multiple regression and structural equation modelling suggested that biomass, soil pH, nutrients and tree species directly affect richness of different taxonomic groups. The community composition of most soil organisms was strongly correlated due to similar response to environmental predictors rather than causal relationships. On a local scale, soil resources and tree species have stronger effect on diversity of soil biota than tree species richness per se.

An introduction to tree-structured modeling with application to quality of life data.

PubMed

Su, Xiaogang; Azuero, Andres; Cho, June; Kvale, Elizabeth; Meneses, Karen M; McNees, M Patrick

2011-01-01

Investigators addressing nursing research are faced increasingly with the need to analyze data that involve variables of mixed types and are characterized by complex nonlinearity and interactions. Tree-based methods, also called recursive partitioning, are gaining popularity in various fields. In addition to efficiency and flexibility in handling multifaceted data, tree-based methods offer ease of interpretation. The aims of this study were to introduce tree-based methods, discuss their advantages and pitfalls in application, and describe their potential use in nursing research. In this article, (a) an introduction to tree-structured methods is presented, (b) the technique is illustrated via quality of life (QOL) data collected in the Breast Cancer Education Intervention study, and (c) implications for their potential use in nursing research are discussed. As illustrated by the QOL analysis example, tree methods generate interesting and easily understood findings that cannot be uncovered via traditional linear regression analysis. The expanding breadth and complexity of nursing research may entail the use of new tools to improve efficiency and gain new insights. In certain situations, tree-based methods offer an attractive approach that help address such needs.

i-Tree: Tools to assess and manage structure, function, and value of community forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirabayashi, S.; Nowak, D.; Endreny, T. A.; Kroll, C.; Maco, S.

2011-12-01

Trees in urban communities can mitigate many adverse effects associated with anthropogenic activities and climate change (e.g. urban heat island, greenhouse gas, air pollution, and floods). To protect environmental and human health, managers need to make informed decisions regarding urban forest management practices. Here we present the i-Tree suite of software tools (www.itreetools.org) developed by the USDA Forest Service and their cooperators. This software suite can help urban forest managers assess and manage the structure, function, and value of urban tree populations regardless of community size or technical capacity. i-Tree is a state-of-the-art, peer-reviewed Windows GUI- or Web-based software that is freely available, supported, and continuously refined by the USDA Forest Service and their cooperators. Two major features of i-Tree are 1) to analyze current canopy structures and identify potential planting spots, and 2) to estimate the environmental benefits provided by the trees, such as carbon storage and sequestration, energy conservation, air pollution removal, and storm water reduction. To cover diverse forest topologies, various tools were developed within the i-Tree suite: i-Tree Design for points (individual trees), i-Tree Streets for lines (street trees), and i-Tree Eco, Vue, and Canopy (in the order of complexity) for areas (community trees). Once the forest structure is identified with these tools, ecosystem services provided by trees can be estimated with common models and protocols, and reports in the form of texts, charts, and figures are then created for users. Since i-Tree was developed with a client/server architecture, nationwide data in the US such as location-related parameters, weather, streamflow, and air pollution data are stored in the server and retrieved to a user's computer at run-time. Freely available remote-sensed images (e.g. NLCD and Google maps) are also employed to estimate tree canopy characteristics. As the demand for i-Tree grows internationally, environmental databases from more countries will be coupled with the software suite. Two more i-Tree applications, i-Tree Forecast and i-Tree Landscape are now under development. i-Tree Forecast simulates canopy structures for up to 100 years based on planting and mortality rates and adds capabilities for other i-Tree applications to estimate the benefits of future canopy scenarios. While most i-Tree applications employ a spatially lumped approach, i-Tree landscape employs a spatially distributed approach that allows users to map changes in canopy cover and ecosystem services through time and space. These new i-Tree tools provide an advanced platform for urban managers to assess the impact of current and future urban forests. i-Tree allows managers to promote effective urban forest management and sound arboricultural practices by providing information for advocacy and planning, baseline data for making informed decisions, and standardization for comparisons with other communities.

An overview of the phase-modular fault tree approach to phased mission system analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, L.; Xing, L.; Donohue, S. K.; Ou, Y.

2003-01-01

We look at how fault tree analysis (FTA), a primary means of performing reliability analysis of PMS, can meet this challenge in this paper by presenting an overview of the modular approach to solving fault trees that represent PMS.

Automated construction of arterial and venous trees in retinal images.

PubMed

Hu, Qiao; Abràmoff, Michael D; Garvin, Mona K

2015-10-01

While many approaches exist to segment retinal vessels in fundus photographs, only a limited number focus on the construction and disambiguation of arterial and venous trees. Previous approaches are local and/or greedy in nature, making them susceptible to errors or limiting their applicability to large vessels. We propose a more global framework to generate arteriovenous trees in retinal images, given a vessel segmentation. In particular, our approach consists of three stages. The first stage is to generate an overconnected vessel network, named the vessel potential connectivity map (VPCM), consisting of vessel segments and the potential connectivity between them. The second stage is to disambiguate the VPCM into multiple anatomical trees, using a graph-based metaheuristic algorithm. The third stage is to classify these trees into arterial or venous (A/V) trees. We evaluated our approach with a ground truth built based on a public database, showing a pixel-wise classification accuracy of 88.15% using a manual vessel segmentation as input, and 86.11% using an automatic vessel segmentation as input.

Merging tree ring chronologies and climate system model simulated temperature by optimal interpolation algorithm in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Nie, Suping; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

A new dataset of annual mean surface temperature has been constructed over North America in recent 500 years by performing optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. Totally, 149 series totally were screened out including 69 tree ring width (MXD) and 80 tree ring width (TRW) chronologies are screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The simulated annual mean surface temperature derives from the past1000 experiment results of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Different from existing research that applying data assimilation approach to (General Circulation Models) GCMs simulation, the errors of both the climate model simulation and tree ring reconstruction were considered, with a view to combining the two parts in an optimal way. Variance matching (VM) was employed to calibrate tree ring chronologies on CRUTEM4v, and corresponding errors were estimated through leave-one-out process. Background error covariance matrix was estimated from samples of simulation results in a running 30-year window in a statistical way. Actually, the background error covariance matrix was calculated locally within the scanning range (2000km in this research). Thus, the merging process continued with a time-varying local gain matrix. The merging method (MM) was tested by two kinds of experiments, and the results indicated standard deviation of errors can be reduced by about 0.3 degree centigrade lower than tree ring reconstructions and 0.5 degree centigrade lower than model simulation. During the recent Obvious decadal variability can be identified in MM results including the evident cooling (0.10 degree per decade) in 1940-60s, wherein the model simulation exhibit a weak increasing trend (0.05 degree per decade) instead. MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature during a typical period (1601-1800 AD) in Little Ice Age, which basically accorded with the phase transitions of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). Through the empirical orthogonal functions and power spectrum analysis, it was demonstrated that, compared with the pure simulations of CCSM4, MM made significant improvement of decadal variability for the gridded temperature in North America by merging the temperature-sensitive tree ring records.

Determining Biophysical Controls on Forest Structure using Hyperspatial Satellite Imagery and Ecological Gradient Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrowski, S. Z.; Greenberg, J. A.; Schladow, G.

2006-12-01

There is evidence from the Sierra Nevada that sub-alpine and alpine environments are currently experiencing landscape-mediated changes in growth and recruitment due to recent climate change. Understanding the biophysical controls of forest structure, growth, and recruitment in these environments is critical for interpreting and predicting the direction and magnitude of biotic responses to climate shift. We examined the abiotic controls of forest biomass within a 305 km2 region of the Carson Range on the eastern shore of Lake Tahoe, CA USA using estimates of forest structure and biophysical drivers developed continuously over the landscape. The study area ranged from 1900 m to 3400 m a.s.l. and encompassed montane, sub-alpine, and alpine environments. From hyperspatial optical imagery (IKONOS), we derived per-tree positions and crown sizes using a template matching approach applied to a pre-classified image of sunlit and shadowed vegetation pixels. From this remote sensing derived stem map, we calculated plot-level estimates of stem density, tree cover and average crown size. Additionally, we developed high resolution (30 m) estimates of climate variables within the study area using meteorological station data, topographic data, and a combination of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches. From these climate surfaces, digital elevation data, and soil survey data, we derived estimates of direct and indirect biophysical drivers including heat loading, reference evapotranspiration, water deficit, solar radiation, topographic convergence, soil depth, and soil water holding capacity. Using these data sets, we conducted a regression tree analysis with stem density, tree cover, and average tree size as response and biophysical drivers as predictors. Trees were fit using half of the dataset randomly sampled (168,000 samples) and pruned using cost-complexity pruning based on 10-fold cross- validation. Predictions from pruned trees were then assessed against the hold-out data. Preliminary results from this analysis suggest that: 1) the relative importance and dependencies of biophysical drivers on forest structure are contingent upon the position of these forests along gradients of a limiting resource, 2) stem density shows a stronger dependence on water availability than tree size and 3) that the predictive power of abiotic variables are limited with our best models accounting for only 36-40 percent of the variance in the response. These results suggest that the response of forest structure to climate change may be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict using abiotic drivers alone.

Impacts of age-dependent tree sensitivity and dating approaches on dendrogeomorphic time series of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šilhán, Karel; Stoffel, Markus

2015-05-01

Different approaches and thresholds have been utilized in the past to date landslides with growth ring series of disturbed trees. Past work was mostly based on conifer species because of their well-defined ring boundaries and the easy identification of compression wood after stem tilting. More recently, work has been expanded to include broad-leaved trees, which are thought to produce less and less evident reactions after landsliding. This contribution reviews recent progress made in dendrogeomorphic landslide analysis and introduces a new approach in which landslides are dated via ring eccentricity formed after tilting. We compare results of this new and the more conventional approaches. In addition, the paper also addresses tree sensitivity to landslide disturbance as a function of tree age and trunk diameter using 119 common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and 39 Crimean pine (Pinus nigra ssp. pallasiana) trees growing on two landslide bodies. The landslide events reconstructed with the classical approach (reaction wood) also appear as events in the eccentricity analysis, but the inclusion of eccentricity clearly allowed for more (162%) landslides to be detected in the tree-ring series. With respect to tree sensitivity, conifers and broad-leaved trees show the strongest reactions to landslides at ages comprised between 40 and 60 years, with a second phase of increased sensitivity in P. nigra at ages of ca. 120-130 years. These phases of highest sensitivities correspond with trunk diameters at breast height of 6-8 and 18-22 cm, respectively (P. nigra). This study thus calls for the inclusion of eccentricity analyses in future landslide reconstructions as well as for the selection of trees belonging to different age and diameter classes to allow for a well-balanced and more complete reconstruction of past events.

Does Gene Tree Discordance Explain the Mismatch between Macroevolutionary Models and Empirical Patterns of Tree Shape and Branching Times?

PubMed Central

Stadler, Tanja; Degnan, James H.; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2016-01-01

Classic null models for speciation and extinction give rise to phylogenies that differ in distribution from empirical phylogenies. In particular, empirical phylogenies are less balanced and have branching times closer to the root compared to phylogenies predicted by common null models. This difference might be due to null models of the speciation and extinction process being too simplistic, or due to the empirical datasets not being representative of random phylogenies. A third possibility arises because phylogenetic reconstruction methods often infer gene trees rather than species trees, producing an incongruity between models that predict species tree patterns and empirical analyses that consider gene trees. We investigate the extent to which the difference between gene trees and species trees under a combined birth–death and multispecies coalescent model can explain the difference in empirical trees and birth–death species trees. We simulate gene trees embedded in simulated species trees and investigate their difference with respect to tree balance and branching times. We observe that the gene trees are less balanced and typically have branching times closer to the root than the species trees. Empirical trees from TreeBase are also less balanced than our simulated species trees, and model gene trees can explain an imbalance increase of up to 8% compared to species trees. However, we see a much larger imbalance increase in empirical trees, about 100%, meaning that additional features must also be causing imbalance in empirical trees. This simulation study highlights the necessity of revisiting the assumptions made in phylogenetic analyses, as these assumptions, such as equating the gene tree with the species tree, might lead to a biased conclusion. PMID:26968785

Molecular Phylogenetics and Systematics of the Bivalve Family Ostreidae Based on rRNA Sequence-Structure Models and Multilocus Species Tree

PubMed Central

Salvi, Daniele; Macali, Armando; Mariottini, Paolo

2014-01-01

The bivalve family Ostreidae has a worldwide distribution and includes species of high economic importance. Phylogenetics and systematic of oysters based on morphology have proved difficult because of their high phenotypic plasticity. In this study we explore the phylogenetic information of the DNA sequence and secondary structure of the nuclear, fast-evolving, ITS2 rRNA and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA genes from the Ostreidae and we implemented a multi-locus framework based on four loci for oyster phylogenetics and systematics. Sequence-structure rRNA models aid sequence alignment and improved accuracy and nodal support of phylogenetic trees. In agreement with previous molecular studies, our phylogenetic results indicate that none of the currently recognized subfamilies, Crassostreinae, Ostreinae, and Lophinae, is monophyletic. Single gene trees based on Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BA) methods and on sequence-structure ML were congruent with multilocus trees based on a concatenated (ML and BA) and coalescent based (BA) approaches and consistently supported three main clades: (i) Crassostrea, (ii) Saccostrea, and (iii) an Ostreinae-Lophinae lineage. Therefore, the subfamily Crassotreinae (including Crassostrea), Saccostreinae subfam. nov. (including Saccostrea and tentatively Striostrea) and Ostreinae (including Ostreinae and Lophinae taxa) are recognized. Based on phylogenetic and biogeographical evidence the Asian species of Crassostrea from the Pacific Ocean are assigned to Magallana gen. nov., whereas an integrative taxonomic revision is required for the genera Ostrea and Dendostrea. This study pointed out the suitability of the ITS2 marker for DNA barcoding of oyster and the relevance of using sequence-structure rRNA models and features of the ITS2 folding in molecular phylogenetics and taxonomy. The multilocus approach allowed inferring a robust phylogeny of Ostreidae providing a broad molecular perspective on their systematics. PMID:25250663

Molecular phylogenetics and systematics of the bivalve family Ostreidae based on rRNA sequence-structure models and multilocus species tree.

PubMed

Salvi, Daniele; Macali, Armando; Mariottini, Paolo

2014-01-01

The bivalve family Ostreidae has a worldwide distribution and includes species of high economic importance. Phylogenetics and systematic of oysters based on morphology have proved difficult because of their high phenotypic plasticity. In this study we explore the phylogenetic information of the DNA sequence and secondary structure of the nuclear, fast-evolving, ITS2 rRNA and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA genes from the Ostreidae and we implemented a multi-locus framework based on four loci for oyster phylogenetics and systematics. Sequence-structure rRNA models aid sequence alignment and improved accuracy and nodal support of phylogenetic trees. In agreement with previous molecular studies, our phylogenetic results indicate that none of the currently recognized subfamilies, Crassostreinae, Ostreinae, and Lophinae, is monophyletic. Single gene trees based on Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BA) methods and on sequence-structure ML were congruent with multilocus trees based on a concatenated (ML and BA) and coalescent based (BA) approaches and consistently supported three main clades: (i) Crassostrea, (ii) Saccostrea, and (iii) an Ostreinae-Lophinae lineage. Therefore, the subfamily Crassostreinae (including Crassostrea), Saccostreinae subfam. nov. (including Saccostrea and tentatively Striostrea) and Ostreinae (including Ostreinae and Lophinae taxa) are recognized [corrected]. Based on phylogenetic and biogeographical evidence the Asian species of Crassostrea from the Pacific Ocean are assigned to Magallana gen. nov., whereas an integrative taxonomic revision is required for the genera Ostrea and Dendostrea. This study pointed out the suitability of the ITS2 marker for DNA barcoding of oyster and the relevance of using sequence-structure rRNA models and features of the ITS2 folding in molecular phylogenetics and taxonomy. The multilocus approach allowed inferring a robust phylogeny of Ostreidae providing a broad molecular perspective on their systematics.

Efficient dynamic modeling of manipulators containing closed kinematic loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferretti, Gianni; Rocco, Paolo

An approach to efficiently solve the forward dynamics problem for manipulators containing closed chains is proposed. The two main distinctive features of this approach are: the dynamics of the equivalent open loop tree structures (any closed loop can be in general modeled by imposing some additional kinematic constraints to a suitable tree structure) is computed through an efficient Newton Euler formulation; the constraint equations relative to the most commonly adopted closed chains in industrial manipulators are explicitly solved, thus, overcoming the redundancy of Lagrange's multipliers method while avoiding the inefficiency due to a numerical solution of the implicit constraint equations. The constraint equations considered for an explicit solution are those imposed by articulated gear mechanisms and planar closed chains (pantograph type structures). Articulated gear mechanisms are actually used in all industrial robots to transmit motion from actuators to links, while planar closed chains are usefully employed to increase the stiffness of the manipulators and their load capacity, as well to reduce the kinematic coupling of joint axes. The accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed approach are shown through a simulation test.

Evaluating multimedia chemical persistence: Classification and regression tree analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, D.H.; McKone, T.E.; Kastenberg, W.E.

2000-04-01

For the thousands of chemicals continuously released into the environment, it is desirable to make prospective assessments of those likely to be persistent. Widely distributed persistent chemicals are impossible to remove from the environment and remediation by natural processes may take decades, which is problematic if adverse health or ecological effects are discovered after prolonged release into the environment. A tiered approach using a classification scheme and a multimedia model for determining persistence is presented. Using specific criteria for persistence, a classification tree is developed to classify a chemical as persistent or nonpersistent based on the chemical properties. In thismore » approach, the classification is derived from the results of a standardized unit world multimedia model. Thus, the classifications are more robust for multimedia pollutants than classifications using a single medium half-life. The method can be readily implemented and provides insight without requiring extensive and often unavailable data. This method can be used to classify chemicals when only a few properties are known and can be used to direct further data collection. Case studies are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the approach.« less

Challenges and approaches to projecting changes in forest distributions in complex mountain landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kueppers, L. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Meromy, L.; Moyes, A. B.; Conlisk, E.; Castanha, C.

2015-12-01

The extent and density of forest trees in mountain landscapes is a first order control on watershed function, affecting patterns of snow accumulation, timing of snowmelt, and amount and quality of run-off, through alterations of surface energy and water fluxes and wind. Climate change is increasingly affecting the density and distribution of mature forests through changes to disturbance regimes, increases in physiological stress and increases in mortality due to warmer temperatures. In addition, climate change is likely altering patterns of regeneration and driving establishment of trees in high elevation meadows and alpine tundra. Though hard to detect in current forestry datasets, changes in tree establishment are critical to the future of forests. Experimental approaches, such as our climate warming experiment in the Colorado Front Range, can provide valuable data regarding seedling sensitivity to climate variability and change across important landscape positions. We've found that warming enhances negative effects of water stress across forest, treeline and alpine sites, reducing recruitment in the absence of additional summer moisture. At the lowest elevation, reductions with warming have reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment to zero. Species differ in their responses to warming in the alpine, but together confirm the importance of seed dispersal to upward forest shifts. The presence of trees or other vegetation can facilitate tree establishment by modifying microclimates, especially at and above treeline. Ultimately, these ecological and demographic processes govern the timescales of tree and forest responses to climate variability and change. For the long-lived species that dominate high elevation watersheds, these processes can take decades or centuries to play out, meaning many tree populations are and will continue to be out of equilibrium with a rapidly changing climate. Projecting changes in tree distributions and abundances across mountain landscapes requires integration of changes in hydroclimatic conditions across diverse topoclimatic settings; the sensitivity of recruitment, growth and mortality to climate; and feedbacks between trees and microclimate into modeling tools that represent time-explicit ecological and demographic processes.

Detection of Single Standing Dead Trees from Aerial Color Infrared Imagery by Segmentation with Shape and Intensity Priors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polewski, P.; Yao, W.; Heurich, M.; Krzystek, P.; Stilla, U.

2015-03-01

Standing dead trees, known as snags, are an essential factor in maintaining biodiversity in forest ecosystems. Combined with their role as carbon sinks, this makes for a compelling reason to study their spatial distribution. This paper presents an integrated method to detect and delineate individual dead tree crowns from color infrared aerial imagery. Our approach consists of two steps which incorporate statistical information about prior distributions of both the image intensities and the shapes of the target objects. In the first step, we perform a Gaussian Mixture Model clustering in the pixel color space with priors on the cluster means, obtaining up to 3 components corresponding to dead trees, living trees, and shadows. We then refine the dead tree regions using a level set segmentation method enriched with a generative model of the dead trees' shape distribution as well as a discriminative model of their pixel intensity distribution. The iterative application of the statistical shape template yields the set of delineated dead crowns. The prior information enforces the consistency of the template's shape variation with the shape manifold defined by manually labeled training examples, which makes it possible to separate crowns located in close proximity and prevents the formation of large crown clusters. Also, the statistical information built into the segmentation gives rise to an implicit detection scheme, because the shape template evolves towards an empty contour if not enough evidence for the object is present in the image. We test our method on 3 sample plots from the Bavarian Forest National Park with reference data obtained by manually marking individual dead tree polygons in the images. Our results are scenario-dependent and range from a correctness/completeness of 0.71/0.81 up to 0.77/1, with an average center-of-gravity displacement of 3-5 pixels between the detected and reference polygons.

Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

2014-12-01

Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

Factors impacting stemflow generation in a European beech forest: Individual tree versus neighborhood properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, Johanna Clara; Germer, Sonja; Hildebrandt, Anke

2017-04-01

The redistribution of precipitation by canopies changes the water flow dynamics to the forest floor. The spatial pattern of throughfall has been researched in a number of studies in different ecosystems. Yet, also stemflow substantially influences water input patterns, constituting a mean of 12% of gross precipitation for European beech as one of the most abundant tree species in Central Europe. While the initiation of stemflow depends mostly on precipitation event properties, stemflow amounts are strongly shaped by canopy structure. Stemflow research has mainly addressed the impact of single tree morphological variables. In previous studies, the impact of forest structure on area-based stemflow was studied comparing plots with different properties using few exemplary stemflow measurements. In non-homogeneous stands, this approach might not be accurate, as the variation of stand properties like tree density could change tree individual stemflow fluxes. To investigate this, a total measurement of all trees per plot is required. We hypothesize, that in addition to individual tree metrics, tree neighborhood relations have a significant impact on stemflow generation in a heterogeneous beech forest. Our study site is located in the pristine forest of the National Park Hainich, central Germany. It is heterogeneous in respect to tree density, species composition and tree age. We measured stemflow in an areal approach, for all trees on 11 subplots (each 10 m x 10 m) spaced evenly throughout a 1 ha plot. This involved overall 65 trees, which is 11% of the plot's trees. 27 precipitation events were recorded in spring and early summer of 2015 and 2016. Stand properties were surveyed, including diameter at breast height, height, position and species of a tree. From this data, we calculated neighborhood properties for each tree, as number, basal area, and relative height of neighboring trees within a radius of the plot's mean tree distance. Using linear mixed effects models, we identified the different factors, individual and neighborhood, which significantly explain stemflow amount per tree. Preliminary results show, that the main impact on stemflow in our heterogeneous beech forest is due to individual tree diameter at breast height, while neighborhood factors have a smaller influence. This work defines the most important factors for stemflow fluxes, using easy-to-acquire tree and stand information, which allows the robust extrapolation of stemflow measurements and the generation of a spatially discrete pattern of stemflow input to the soil. Because of the high local and temporal concentration of precipitation, stemflow fluxes could be a key factor in forest soil water dynamics. On the long run, the results shall enable us to directly link soil water content measurements with estimated stemflow volumes for individual trees to trace stemflow fluxes into and through the soil.

Modeling adaptive kernels from probabilistic phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Nicotra, Luca; Micheli, Alessio

2009-01-01

Modeling phylogenetic interactions is an open issue in many computational biology problems. In the context of gene function prediction we introduce a class of kernels for structured data leveraging on a hierarchical probabilistic modeling of phylogeny among species. We derive three kernels belonging to this setting: a sufficient statistics kernel, a Fisher kernel, and a probability product kernel. The new kernels are used in the context of support vector machine learning. The kernels adaptivity is obtained through the estimation of the parameters of a tree structured model of evolution using as observed data phylogenetic profiles encoding the presence or absence of specific genes in a set of fully sequenced genomes. We report results obtained in the prediction of the functional class of the proteins of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisae which favorably compare to a standard vector based kernel and to a non-adaptive tree kernel function. A further comparative analysis is performed in order to assess the impact of the different components of the proposed approach. We show that the key features of the proposed kernels are the adaptivity to the input domain and the ability to deal with structured data interpreted through a graphical model representation.

Carbon Sequestration Estimation of Street Trees Based on Point Cloud from Vehicle-Borne Laser Scanning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Hu, Q.

2017-09-01

Continuous development of urban road traffic system requests higher standards of road ecological environment. Ecological benefits of street trees are getting more attention. Carbon sequestration of street trees refers to the carbon stocks of street trees, which can be a measurement for ecological benefits of street trees. Estimating carbon sequestration in a traditional way is costly and inefficient. In order to solve above problems, a carbon sequestration estimation approach for street trees based on 3D point cloud from vehicle-borne laser scanning system is proposed in this paper. The method can measure the geometric parameters of a street tree, including tree height, crown width, diameter at breast height (DBH), by processing and analyzing point cloud data of an individual tree. Four Chinese scholartree trees and four camphor trees are selected for experiment. The root mean square error (RMSE) of tree height is 0.11m for Chinese scholartree and 0.02m for camphor. Crown widths in X direction and Y direction, as well as the average crown width are calculated. And the RMSE of average crown width is 0.22m for Chinese scholartree and 0.10m for camphor. The last calculated parameter is DBH, the RMSE of DBH is 0.5cm for both Chinese scholartree and camphor. Combining the measured geometric parameters and an appropriate carbon sequestration calculation model, the individual tree's carbon sequestration will be estimated. The proposed method can help enlarge application range of vehicle-borne laser point cloud data, improve the efficiency of estimating carbon sequestration, construct urban ecological environment and manage landscape.

Pollutant Concentrations in Street Canyons of Different Aspect Ratio with Avenues of Trees for Various Wind Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromke, Christof; Ruck, Bodo

2012-07-01

This study summarizes the effects of avenues of trees in urban street canyons on traffic pollutant dispersion. We describe various wind-tunnel experiments with different tree-avenue models in combination with variations in street-canyon aspect ratio W/ H (with W the street-canyon width and H the building height) and approaching wind direction. Compared to tree-free street canyons, in general, higher pollutant concentrations are found. Avenues of trees do not suppress canyon vortices, although the air ventilation in canyons is hindered significantly. For a perpendicular wind direction, increases in wall-average and wall-maximum concentrations at the leeward canyon wall and decreases in wall-average concentrations at the windward wall are found. For oblique and perpendicular wind directions, increases at both canyon walls are obtained. The strongest effects of avenues of trees on traffic pollutant dispersion are observed for oblique wind directions for which also the largest concentrations at the canyon walls are found. Thus, the prevailing assumption that attributes the most harmful dispersion conditions to a perpendicular wind direction does not hold for street canyons with avenues of trees. Furthermore, following dimensional analysis, an estimate of the normalized wall-maximum traffic pollutant concentration in street canyons with avenues of trees is derived.

Adult tree swallow survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Hudson River, New York, USA, between 2006 and 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Custer, Christine M.; Custer, Thomas W.; Hines, James E.

2012-01-01

The upper Hudson River basin in east central New York, USA, is highly contaminated, primarily with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Reduced adult survival has been documented in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) at a similarly PCB-contaminated river system in western Massachusetts. The purpose of the present study was to assess whether adult survival of tree swallows was likewise affected in the Hudson River basin. Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 521 female tree swallows were banded, of which 148 were retrapped at least once. The authors used Program MARK and an information theoretic approach to test the hypothesis that PCB contamination reduced annual survival of female tree swallows. The model that best described the processes that generated the capture history data included covariate effects of year and female plumage coloration on survival but not PCB/river. Annual survival rates of brown-plumaged females (mostly one year old) were generally lower (mean phi = 0.39) than those of blue-plumaged females (mean phi = 0.50, one year or older). Poor early spring weather in 2007 was associated with reduced survival in both plumage-color groups compared to later years. Models with the effects of PCB exposure on survival (all ΔAICc values >5.0) received little support.

Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

PubMed

Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

2012-02-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

Decision trees in epidemiological research.

PubMed

Venkatasubramaniam, Ashwini; Wolfson, Julian; Mitchell, Nathan; Barnes, Timothy; JaKa, Meghan; French, Simone

2017-01-01

In many studies, it is of interest to identify population subgroups that are relatively homogeneous with respect to an outcome. The nature of these subgroups can provide insight into effect mechanisms and suggest targets for tailored interventions. However, identifying relevant subgroups can be challenging with standard statistical methods. We review the literature on decision trees, a family of techniques for partitioning the population, on the basis of covariates, into distinct subgroups who share similar values of an outcome variable. We compare two decision tree methods, the popular Classification and Regression tree (CART) technique and the newer Conditional Inference tree (CTree) technique, assessing their performance in a simulation study and using data from the Box Lunch Study, a randomized controlled trial of a portion size intervention. Both CART and CTree identify homogeneous population subgroups and offer improved prediction accuracy relative to regression-based approaches when subgroups are truly present in the data. An important distinction between CART and CTree is that the latter uses a formal statistical hypothesis testing framework in building decision trees, which simplifies the process of identifying and interpreting the final tree model. We also introduce a novel way to visualize the subgroups defined by decision trees. Our novel graphical visualization provides a more scientifically meaningful characterization of the subgroups identified by decision trees. Decision trees are a useful tool for identifying homogeneous subgroups defined by combinations of individual characteristics. While all decision tree techniques generate subgroups, we advocate the use of the newer CTree technique due to its simplicity and ease of interpretation.

GENOME-WIDE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PHYLOGENETIC TREES: THE PROKARYOTIC FOREST OF LIFE

PubMed Central

Puigbò, Pere; Wolf, Yuri I.; Koonin, Eugene V.

2013-01-01

Genome-wide comparison of phylogenetic trees is becoming an increasingly common approach in evolutionary genomics, and a variety of approaches for such comparison have been developed. In this article we present several methods for comparative analysis of large numbers of phylogenetic trees. To compare phylogenetic trees taking into account the bootstrap support for each internal branch, the Boot-Split Distance (BSD) method is introduced as an extension of the previously developed Split Distance (SD) method for tree comparison. The BSD method implements the straightforward idea that comparison of phylogenetic trees can be made more robust by treating tree splits differentially depending on the bootstrap support. Approaches are also introduced for detecting tree-like and net-like evolutionary trends in the phylogenetic Forest of Life (FOL), i.e., the entirety of the phylogenetic trees for conserved genes of prokaryotes. The principal method employed for this purpose includes mapping quartets of species onto trees to calculate the support of each quartet topology and so to quantify the tree and net contributions to the distances between species. We describe the applications methods used to analyze the FOL and the results obtained with these methods. These results support the concept of the Tree of Life (TOL) as a central evolutionary trend in the FOL as opposed to the traditional view of the TOL as a ‘species tree’. PMID:22399455

Biophysical modelling of intra-ring variations in tracheid features and wood density of Pinus pinaster trees exposed to seasonal droughts.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Sarah; Ogée, Jérôme; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Rayment, Mark; Wingate, Lisa

2015-03-01

Process-based models that link seasonally varying environmental signals to morphological features within tree rings are essential tools to predict tree growth response and commercially important wood quality traits under future climate scenarios. This study evaluated model portrayal of radial growth and wood anatomy observations within a mature maritime pine (Pinus pinaster (L.) Aït.) stand exposed to seasonal droughts. Intra-annual variations in tracheid anatomy and wood density were identified through image analysis and X-ray densitometry on stem cores covering the growth period 1999-2010. A cambial growth model was integrated with modelled plant water status and sugar availability from the soil-plant-atmosphere transfer model MuSICA to generate estimates of cell number, cell volume, cell mass and wood density on a weekly time step. The model successfully predicted inter-annual variations in cell number, ring width and maximum wood density. The model was also able to predict the occurrence of special anatomical features such as intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) in growth rings. Since cell wall thickness remained surprisingly constant within and between growth rings, variations in wood density were primarily the result of variations in lumen diameter, both in the model and anatomical data. In the model, changes in plant water status were identified as the main driver of the IADFs through a direct effect on cell volume. The anatomy data also revealed that a trade-off existed between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. Although a simplified description of cambial physiology is presented, this integrated modelling approach shows potential value for identifying universal patterns of tree-ring growth and anatomical features over a broad climatic gradient. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Tree decomposition based fast search of RNA structures including pseudoknots in genomes.

PubMed

Song, Yinglei; Liu, Chunmei; Malmberg, Russell; Pan, Fangfang; Cai, Liming

2005-01-01

Searching genomes for RNA secondary structure with computational methods has become an important approach to the annotation of non-coding RNAs. However, due to the lack of efficient algorithms for accurate RNA structure-sequence alignment, computer programs capable of fast and effectively searching genomes for RNA secondary structures have not been available. In this paper, a novel RNA structure profiling model is introduced based on the notion of a conformational graph to specify the consensus structure of an RNA family. Tree decomposition yields a small tree width t for such conformation graphs (e.g., t = 2 for stem loops and only a slight increase for pseudo-knots). Within this modelling framework, the optimal alignment of a sequence to the structure model corresponds to finding a maximum valued isomorphic subgraph and consequently can be accomplished through dynamic programming on the tree decomposition of the conformational graph in time O(k(t)N(2)), where k is a small parameter; and N is the size of the projiled RNA structure. Experiments show that the application of the alignment algorithm to search in genomes yields the same search accuracy as methods based on a Covariance model with a significant reduction in computation time. In particular; very accurate searches of tmRNAs in bacteria genomes and of telomerase RNAs in yeast genomes can be accomplished in days, as opposed to months required by other methods. The tree decomposition based searching tool is free upon request and can be downloaded at our site h t t p ://w.uga.edu/RNA-informatics/software/index.php.

Microwave Soil Moisture Retrieval Under Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neill, P.; Lang, R.; Kurum, M.; Joseph, A.; Jackson, T.; Cosh, M.

2008-01-01

Soil moisture is recognized as an important component of the water, energy, and carbon cycles at the interface between the Earth's surface and atmosphere. Current baseline soil moisture retrieval algorithms for microwave space missions have been developed and validated only over grasslands, agricultural crops, and generally light to moderate vegetation. Tree areas have commonly been excluded from operational soil moisture retrieval plans due to the large expected impact of trees on masking the microwave response to the underlying soil moisture. Our understanding of the microwave properties of trees of various sizes and their effect on soil moisture retrieval algorithms at L band is presently limited, although research efforts are ongoing in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere to remedy this situation. As part of this research, a coordinated sequence of field measurements involving the ComRAD (for Combined Radar/Radiometer) active/passive microwave truck instrument system has been undertaken. Jointly developed and operated by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and George Washington University, ComRAD consists of dual-polarized 1.4 GHz total-power radiometers (LH, LV) and a quad-polarized 1.25 GHz L band radar sharing a single parabolic dish antenna with a novel broadband stacked patch dual-polarized feed, a quad-polarized 4.75 GHz C band radar, and a single channel 10 GHz XHH radar. The instruments are deployed on a mobile truck with an 19-m hydraulic boom and share common control software; real-time calibrated signals, and the capability for automated data collection for unattended operation. Most microwave soil moisture retrieval algorithms developed for use at L band frequencies are based on the tau-omega model, a simplified zero-order radiative transfer approach where scattering is largely ignored and vegetation canopies are generally treated as a bulk attenuating layer. In this approach, vegetation effects are parameterized by tau and omega, the microwave vegetation opacity and single scattering albedo. One goal of our current research is to determine whether the tau-omega model can work for tree canopies given the increased scatter from trees compared to grasses and crops, and. if so, what are effective values for tau and omega for trees.

Systematic Model-in-the-Loop Test of Embedded Control Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krupp, Alexander; Müller, Wolfgang

Current model-based development processes offer new opportunities for verification automation, e.g., in automotive development. The duty of functional verification is the detection of design flaws. Current functional verification approaches exhibit a major gap between requirement definition and formal property definition, especially when analog signals are involved. Besides lack of methodical support for natural language formalization, there does not exist a standardized and accepted means for formal property definition as a target for verification planning. This article addresses several shortcomings of embedded system verification. An Enhanced Classification Tree Method is developed based on the established Classification Tree Method for Embeded Systems CTM/ES which applies a hardware verification language to define a verification environment.

Logarithmic Compression of Sensory Signals within the Dendritic Tree of a Collision-Sensitive Neuron

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Neurons in a variety of species, both vertebrate and invertebrate, encode the kinematics of objects approaching on a collision course through a time-varying firing rate profile that initially increases, then peaks, and eventually decays as collision becomes imminent. In this temporal profile, the peak firing rate signals when the approaching object's subtended size reaches an angular threshold, an event which has been related to the timing of escape behaviors. In a locust neuron called the lobula giant motion detector (LGMD), the biophysical basis of this angular threshold computation relies on a multiplicative combination of the object's angular size and speed, achieved through a logarithmic-exponential transform. To understand how this transform is implemented, we modeled the encoding of angular velocity along the pathway leading to the LGMD based on the experimentally determined activation pattern of its presynaptic neurons. These simulations show that the logarithmic transform of angular speed occurs between the synaptic conductances activated by the approaching object onto the LGMD's dendritic tree and its membrane potential at the spike initiation zone. Thus, we demonstrate an example of how a single neuron's dendritic tree implements a mathematical step in a neural computation important for natural behavior. PMID:22492048

A fuzzy decision tree for fault classification.

PubMed

Zio, Enrico; Baraldi, Piero; Popescu, Irina C

2008-02-01

In plant accident management, the control room operators are required to identify the causes of the accident, based on the different patterns of evolution of the monitored process variables thereby developing. This task is often quite challenging, given the large number of process parameters monitored and the intense emotional states under which it is performed. To aid the operators, various techniques of fault classification have been engineered. An important requirement for their practical application is the physical interpretability of the relationships among the process variables underpinning the fault classification. In this view, the present work propounds a fuzzy approach to fault classification, which relies on fuzzy if-then rules inferred from the clustering of available preclassified signal data, which are then organized in a logical and transparent decision tree structure. The advantages offered by the proposed approach are precisely that a transparent fault classification model is mined out of the signal data and that the underlying physical relationships among the process variables are easily interpretable as linguistic if-then rules that can be explicitly visualized in the decision tree structure. The approach is applied to a case study regarding the classification of simulated faults in the feedwater system of a boiling water reactor.

Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast

Treesearch

N.L. Rodenhouse; S.N. Matthews; K.P. McFarland; J.D. Lambert; L.R. Iverson; A. Prasad; T.S. Stillett; R.T. Holmes

2008-01-01

We used three approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. First, we created distribution and abundance models for common bird species using climate, elevation, and tree species variables and modeled how bird distributions might change as habitats shift. Second, we assessed potential effects on high-elevation birds, especially...

Wave processes in the human cardiovascular system: The measuring complex, computing models, and diagnostic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganiev, R. F.; Reviznikov, D. L.; Rogoza, A. N.; Slastushenskiy, Yu. V.; Ukrainskiy, L. E.

2017-03-01

A description of a complex approach to investigation of nonlinear wave processes in the human cardiovascular system based on a combination of high-precision methods of measuring a pulse wave, mathematical methods of processing the empirical data, and methods of direct numerical modeling of hemodynamic processes in an arterial tree is given.

Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2014-01-01

Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

Generalization of Faustmann's Formula for Stochastic Forest Growth and Prices with Markov Decision Process Models

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2001-01-01

Faustmann's formula gives the land value, or the forest value of land with trees, under deterministic assumptions regarding future stand growth and prices, over an infinite horizon. Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's approach by recognizing that future stand states and prices are known only as probabilistic distributions. The...

The Source of Adult Age Differences in Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

2006-01-01

Event-based prospective memory involves remembering to perform an action in response to a particular future event. Normal younger and older adults performed event-based prospective memory tasks in 2 experiments. The authors applied a formal multinomial processing tree model of prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004) to disentangle age differences…

Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

Treesearch

Scott L. Powell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean P. Healey; Robert E. Kennedy; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann

2010-01-01

Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to...

Estimating extent of mortality associated with the Douglas-fir beetle in the Central and Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; Willis C. Schaupp; Kenneth E. Gibson; John Anhold; Dawn Hansen; Ralph Thier; Phil Mocettini

1999-01-01

Data collected from Douglas-fir stands infected by the Douglas-fir beetle in Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Utah, were used to develop models to estimate amount of mortality in terms of basal area killed. Models were built using stepwise linear regression and regression tree approaches. Linear regression models using initial Douglas-fir basal area were built for all...

Leaf aging of Amazonian canopy trees as revealed by spectral and physiochemical measurements.

PubMed

Chavana-Bryant, Cecilia; Malhi, Yadvinder; Wu, Jin; Asner, Gregory P; Anastasiou, Athanasios; Enquist, Brian J; Cosio Caravasi, Eric G; Doughty, Christopher E; Saleska, Scott R; Martin, Roberta E; Gerard, France F

2017-05-01

Leaf aging is a fundamental driver of changes in leaf traits, thereby regulating ecosystem processes and remotely sensed canopy dynamics. We explore leaf reflectance as a tool to monitor leaf age and develop a spectra-based partial least squares regression (PLSR) model to predict age using data from a phenological study of 1099 leaves from 12 lowland Amazonian canopy trees in southern Peru. Results demonstrated monotonic decreases in leaf water (LWC) and phosphorus (P mass ) contents and an increase in leaf mass per unit area (LMA) with age across trees; leaf nitrogen (N mass ) and carbon (C mass ) contents showed monotonic but tree-specific age responses. We observed large age-related variation in leaf spectra across trees. A spectra-based model was more accurate in predicting leaf age (R 2  = 0.86; percent root mean square error (%RMSE) = 33) compared with trait-based models using single (R 2  = 0.07-0.73; %RMSE = 7-38) and multiple (R 2  = 0.76; %RMSE = 28) predictors. Spectra- and trait-based models established a physiochemical basis for the spectral age model. Vegetation indices (VIs) including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index 2 (EVI2), normalized difference water index (NDWI) and photosynthetic reflectance index (PRI) were all age-dependent. This study highlights the importance of leaf age as a mediator of leaf traits, provides evidence of age-related leaf reflectance changes that have important impacts on VIs used to monitor canopy dynamics and productivity and proposes a new approach to predicting and monitoring leaf age with important implications for remote sensing. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

CFD modelling of the aerodynamic effect of trees on urban air pollution dispersion.

PubMed

Amorim, J H; Rodrigues, V; Tavares, R; Valente, J; Borrego, C

2013-09-01

The current work evaluates the impact of urban trees over the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) emitted by road traffic, due to the induced modification of the wind flow characteristics. With this purpose, the standard flow equations with a kε closure for turbulence were extended with the capability to account for the aerodynamic effect of trees over the wind field. Two CFD models were used for testing this numerical approach. Air quality simulations were conducted for two periods of 31h in selected areas of Lisbon and Aveiro, in Portugal, for distinct relative wind directions: approximately 45° and nearly parallel to the main avenue, respectively. The statistical evaluation of modelling performance and uncertainty revealed a significant improvement of results with trees, as shown by the reduction of the NMSE from 0.14 to 0.10 in Lisbon, and from 0.14 to 0.04 in Aveiro, which is independent from the CFD model applied. The consideration of the plant canopy allowed to fulfil the data quality objectives for ambient air quality modelling established by the Directive 2008/50/EC, with an important decrease of the maximum deviation between site measurements and CFD results. In the non-aligned wind situation an average 12% increase of the CO concentrations in the domain was observed as a response to the aerodynamic action of trees over the vertical exchange rates of polluted air with the above roof-level atmosphere; while for the aligned configuration an average 16% decrease was registered due to the enhanced ventilation of the street canyon. These results show that urban air quality can be optimised based on knowledge-based planning of green spaces. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Progress in tropical isotope dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. N.; Schrag, D. P.; Poussart, P. F.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2005-12-01

The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing high resolution proxy network used to characterize the mean state and variability of the hydrological cycle. Here we review early efforts to develop a new class of proxy paleorainfall/humidity indicators using intraseasonal to interannual-resolution stable isotope data from tropical trees. The approach invokes a recently published model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose, rapid methods for cellulose extraction from raw wood, and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. Isotopically-derived age models may be confirmed for modern intervals using trees of known age, radiocarbon measurements, direct measurements of tree diameter, and time series replication. Studies are now underway at a number of laboratories on samples from Costa Rica, northwestern coastal Peru, Indonesia, Thailand, New Guinea, Paraguay, Brazil, India, and the South American Altiplano. Improved sample extraction chemistry and online pyrolysis techniques should increase sample throughput, precision, and time series replication. Statistical calibration together with simple forward modeling based on the well-observed modern period can provide for objective interpretation of the data. Ultimately, replicated data series with well-defined uncertainties can be entered into multiproxy efforts to define aspects of tropical hydrological variability associated with ENSO, the meridional overturning circulation, and the monsoon systems.

The impact of forest structure and spatial scale on the relationship between ground plot above ground biomass and GEDI lidar waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armston, J.; Marselis, S.; Hancock, S.; Duncanson, L.; Tang, H.; Kellner, J. R.; Calders, K.; Disney, M.; Dubayah, R.

2017-12-01

The NASA Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) will place a multi-beam waveform lidar instrument on the International Space Station (ISS) to provide measurements of forest vertical structure globally. These measurements of structure will underpin empirical modelling of above ground biomass density (AGBD) at the scale of individual GEDI lidar footprints (25m diameter). The GEDI pre-launch calibration strategy for footprint level models relies on linking AGBD estimates from ground plots with GEDI lidar waveforms simulated from coincident discrete return airborne laser scanning data. Currently available ground plot data have variable and often large uncertainty at the spatial resolution of GEDI footprints due to poor colocation, allometric model error, sample size and plot edge effects. The relative importance of these sources of uncertainty partly depends on the quality of ground measurements and region. It is usually difficult to know the magnitude of these uncertainties a priori so a common approach to mitigate their influence on model training is to aggregate ground plot and waveform lidar data to a coarser spatial scale (0.25-1ha). Here we examine the impacts of these principal sources of uncertainty using a 3D simulation approach. Sets of realistic tree models generated from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data or parametric modelling matched to tree inventory data were assembled from four contrasting forest plots across tropical rainforest, deciduous temperate forest, and sclerophyll eucalypt woodland sites. These tree models were used to simulate geometrically explicit 3D scenes with variable tree density, size class and spatial distribution. GEDI lidar waveforms are simulated over ground plots within these scenes using monte carlo ray tracing, allowing the impact of varying ground plot and waveform colocation error, forest structure and edge effects on the relationship between ground plot AGBD and GEDI lidar waveforms to be directly assessed. We quantify the sensitivity of calibration equations relating GEDI lidar structure measurements and AGBD to these factors at a range of spatial scales (0.0625-1ha) and discuss the implications for the expanding use of existing in situ ground plot data by GEDI.

Decision tree and ensemble learning algorithms with their applications in bioinformatics.

PubMed

Che, Dongsheng; Liu, Qi; Rasheed, Khaled; Tao, Xiuping

2011-01-01

Machine learning approaches have wide applications in bioinformatics, and decision tree is one of the successful approaches applied in this field. In this chapter, we briefly review decision tree and related ensemble algorithms and show the successful applications of such approaches on solving biological problems. We hope that by learning the algorithms of decision trees and ensemble classifiers, biologists can get the basic ideas of how machine learning algorithms work. On the other hand, by being exposed to the applications of decision trees and ensemble algorithms in bioinformatics, computer scientists can get better ideas of which bioinformatics topics they may work on in their future research directions. We aim to provide a platform to bridge the gap between biologists and computer scientists.

Generic biomass functions for Norway spruce in Central Europe--a meta-analysis approach toward prediction and uncertainty estimation.

PubMed

Wirth, Christian; Schumacher, Jens; Schulze, Ernst-Detlef

2004-02-01

To facilitate future carbon and nutrient inventories, we used mixed-effect linear models to develop new generic biomass functions for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Central Europe. We present both the functions and their respective variance-covariance matrices and illustrate their application for biomass prediction and uncertainty estimation for Norway spruce trees ranging widely in size, age, competitive status and site. We collected biomass data for 688 trees sampled in 102 stands by 19 authors. The total number of trees in the "base" model data sets containing the predictor variables diameter at breast height (D), height (H), age (A), site index (SI) and site elevation (HSL) varied according to compartment (roots: n = 114, stem: n = 235, dry branches: n = 207, live branches: n = 429 and needles: n = 551). "Core" data sets with about 40% fewer trees could be extracted containing the additional predictor variables crown length and social class. A set of 43 candidate models representing combinations of lnD, lnH, lnA, SI and HSL, including second-order polynomials and interactions, was established. The categorical variable "author" subsuming mainly methodological differences was included as a random effect in a mixed linear model. The Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection. The best models for stem, root and branch biomass contained only combinations of D, H and A as predictors. More complex models that included site-related variables resulted for needle biomass. Adding crown length as a predictor for needles, branches and roots reduced both the bias and the confidence interval of predictions substantially. Applying the best models to a test data set of 17 stands ranging in age from 16 to 172 years produced realistic allocation patterns at the tree and stand levels. The 95% confidence intervals (% of mean prediction) were highest for crown compartments (approximately +/- 12%) and lowest for stem biomass (approximately +/- 5%), and within each compartment, they were highest for the youngest and oldest stands, respectively.

Automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to flexible-receptor docking data.

PubMed

Barros, Rodrigo C; Winck, Ana T; Machado, Karina S; Basgalupp, Márcio P; de Carvalho, André C P L F; Ruiz, Duncan D; de Souza, Osmar Norberto

2012-11-21

This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor.

Automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to flexible-receptor docking data

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. Results The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. Conclusions We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor. PMID:23171000

Using Mechanistic Studies to Model Riparian Tree Establishment Under Environmental Flow Scenarios on Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Battles, J. J.; McBride, J. R.; Orr, B. K.

2007-12-01

In the Central Valley of California, pioneer cottonwood and willow species dominate the near-river forests. Historically, seedling recruitment for these disturbance-adapted species coincided with spring floods. Changes in flow timing and magnitude due to river regulation have decreased the success of seedling cohorts and contributed to the decline of these riparian tree populations. In order to address gaps in our understanding of these species and potential restoration strategies, we field-calibrated a conceptual model of seedling recruitment for the dominant pioneer woody species, Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, and S. exigua. We conducted experiments to identify seedling desiccation thresholds and seed longevity, used field studies to measure seedling competition and seasonal seed release patterns, and modeled interannual differences in dispersal timing using a degree-day model. These studies were integrated into a recruitment model that generates annual estimates of seedling density and bank elevation based on inputs of seasonal river discharge, seed dispersal timing, and seedling mortality from desiccation. The model predictions successfully captured interannual and species-level patterns in recruitment observed independently throughout a 20-km reach of the lower Tuolumne River from 2002-04. The model correctly predicted that seedling densities were highest in 2004 and lowest in 2003, and that S. exigua recruitment would be less extensive than for the two tree species. This work shows promise as both a quantitative approach linking hydrology, climate and plant community dynamics, and as a process-based framework for guiding flow releases and other management actions to restore riparian tree population along Central Valley rivers.

Detection of fraudulent financial statements using the hybrid data mining approach.

PubMed

Chen, Suduan

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to construct a valid and rigorous fraudulent financial statement detection model. The research objects are companies which experienced both fraudulent and non-fraudulent financial statements between the years 2002 and 2013. In the first stage, two decision tree algorithms, including the classification and regression trees (CART) and the Chi squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) are applied in the selection of major variables. The second stage combines CART, CHAID, Bayesian belief network, support vector machine and artificial neural network in order to construct fraudulent financial statement detection models. According to the results, the detection performance of the CHAID-CART model is the most effective, with an overall accuracy of 87.97 % (the FFS detection accuracy is 92.69 %).

High organic inputs explain shallow and deep SOC storage in a long-term agroforestry system - combining experimental and modeling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardinael, Rémi; Guenet, Bertrand; Chevallier, Tiphaine; Dupraz, Christian; Cozzi, Thomas; Chenu, Claire

2018-01-01

Agroforestry is an increasingly popular farming system enabling agricultural diversification and providing several ecosystem services. In agroforestry systems, soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are generally increased, but it is difficult to disentangle the different factors responsible for this storage. Organic carbon (OC) inputs to the soil may be larger, but SOC decomposition rates may be modified owing to microclimate, physical protection, or priming effect from roots, especially at depth. We used an 18-year-old silvoarable system associating hybrid walnut trees (Juglans regia × nigra) and durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp. durum) and an adjacent agricultural control plot to quantify all OC inputs to the soil - leaf litter, tree fine root senescence, crop residues, and tree row herbaceous vegetation - and measured SOC stocks down to 2 m of depth at varying distances from the trees. We then proposed a model that simulates SOC dynamics in agroforestry accounting for both the whole soil profile and the lateral spatial heterogeneity. The model was calibrated to the control plot only. Measured OC inputs to soil were increased by about 40 % (+ 1.11 t C ha-1 yr-1) down to 2 m of depth in the agroforestry plot compared to the control, resulting in an additional SOC stock of 6.3 t C ha-1 down to 1 m of depth. However, most of the SOC storage occurred in the first 30 cm of soil and in the tree rows. The model was strongly validated, properly describing the measured SOC stocks and distribution with depth in agroforestry tree rows and alleys. It showed that the increased inputs of fresh biomass to soil explained the observed additional SOC storage in the agroforestry plot. Moreover, only a priming effect variant of the model was able to capture the depth distribution of SOC stocks, suggesting the priming effect as a possible mechanism driving deep SOC dynamics. This result questions the potential of soils to store large amounts of carbon, especially at depth. Deep-rooted trees modify OC inputs to soil, a process that deserves further study given its potential effects on SOC dynamics.

Harvesting tree biomass at the stand level to assess the accuracy of field and airborne biomass estimation in savannas.

PubMed

Colgan, Matthew S; Asner, Gregory P; Swemmer, Tony

2013-07-01

Tree biomass is an integrated measure of net growth and is critical for understanding, monitoring, and modeling ecosystem functions. Despite the importance of accurately measuring tree biomass, several fundamental barriers preclude direct measurement at large spatial scales, including the facts that trees must be felled to be weighed and that even modestly sized trees are challenging to maneuver once felled. Allometric methods allow for estimation of tree mass using structural characteristics, such as trunk diameter. Savanna trees present additional challenges, including limited available allometry and a prevalence of multiple stems per individual. Here we collected airborne lidar data over a semiarid savanna adjacent to the Kruger National Park, South Africa, and then harvested and weighed woody plant biomass at the plot scale to provide a standard against which field and airborne estimation methods could be compared. For an existing airborne lidar method, we found that half of the total error was due to averaging canopy height at the plot scale. This error was eliminated by instead measuring maximum height and crown area of individual trees from lidar data using an object-based method to identify individual tree crowns and estimate their biomass. The best object-based model approached the accuracy of field allometry at both the tree and plot levels, and it more than doubled the accuracy compared to existing airborne methods (17% vs. 44% deviation from harvested biomass). Allometric error accounted for less than one-third of the total residual error in airborne biomass estimates at the plot scale when using allometry with low bias. Airborne methods also gave more accurate predictions at the plot level than did field methods based on diameter-only allometry. These results provide a novel comparison of field and airborne biomass estimates using harvested plots and advance the role of lidar remote sensing in savanna ecosystems.

The relationship between tree growth patterns and likelihood of mortality: A study of two tree species in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, A.J.; Battles, J.J.; Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

2007-01-01

We examined mortality of Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) and Pinus lambertiana Dougl. (sugar pine) by developing logistic models using three growth indices obtained from tree rings: average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt growth declines. For P. lambertiana, models with average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt declines improved overall prediction (78.6% dead trees correctly classified, 83.7% live trees correctly classified) compared with a model with average recent growth alone (69.6% dead trees correctly classified, 67.3% live trees correctly classified). For A. concolor, counts of abrupt declines and longer time intervals improved overall classification (trees with DBH ???20 cm: 78.9% dead trees correctly classified and 76.7% live trees correctly classified vs. 64.9% dead trees correctly classified and 77.9% live trees correctly classified; trees with DBH <20 cm: 71.6% dead trees correctly classified and 71.0% live trees correctly classified vs. 67.2% dead trees correctly classified and 66.7% live trees correctly classified). In general, count of abrupt declines improved live-tree classification. External validation of A. concolor models showed that they functioned well at stands not used in model development, and the development of size-specific models demonstrated important differences in mortality risk between understory and canopy trees. Population-level mortality-risk models were developed for A. concolor and generated realistic mortality rates at two sites. Our results support the contention that a more comprehensive use of the growth record yields a more robust assessment of mortality risk. ?? 2007 NRC.

Using single cell sequencing data to model the evolutionary history of a tumor.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung In; Simon, Richard

2014-01-24

The introduction of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology has made it possible to detect genomic alterations within tumor cells on a large scale. However, most applications of NGS show the genetic content of mixtures of cells. Recently developed single cell sequencing technology can identify variation within a single cell. Characterization of multiple samples from a tumor using single cell sequencing can potentially provide information on the evolutionary history of that tumor. This may facilitate understanding how key mutations accumulate and evolve in lineages to form a heterogeneous tumor. We provide a computational method to infer an evolutionary mutation tree based on single cell sequencing data. Our approach differs from traditional phylogenetic tree approaches in that our mutation tree directly describes temporal order relationships among mutation sites. Our method also accommodates sequencing errors. Furthermore, we provide a method for estimating the proportion of time from the earliest mutation event of the sample to the most recent common ancestor of the sample of cells. Finally, we discuss current limitations on modeling with single cell sequencing data and possible improvements under those limitations. Inferring the temporal ordering of mutational sites using current single cell sequencing data is a challenge. Our proposed method may help elucidate relationships among key mutations and their role in tumor progression.

Direct evaluation of fault trees using object-oriented programming techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1989-01-01

Object-oriented programming techniques are used in an algorithm for the direct evaluation of fault trees. The algorithm combines a simple bottom-up procedure for trees without repeated events with a top-down recursive procedure for trees with repeated events. The object-oriented approach results in a dynamic modularization of the tree at each step in the reduction process. The algorithm reduces the number of recursive calls required to solve trees with repeated events and calculates intermediate results as well as the solution of the top event. The intermediate results can be reused if part of the tree is modified. An example is presented in which the results of the algorithm implemented with conventional techniques are compared to those of the object-oriented approach.

Bayesian Analysis of Biogeography when the Number of Areas is Large

PubMed Central

Landis, Michael J.; Matzke, Nicholas J.; Moore, Brian R.; Huelsenbeck, John P.

2013-01-01

Historical biogeography is increasingly studied from an explicitly statistical perspective, using stochastic models to describe the evolution of species range as a continuous-time Markov process of dispersal between and extinction within a set of discrete geographic areas. The main constraint of these methods is the computational limit on the number of areas that can be specified. We propose a Bayesian approach for inferring biogeographic history that extends the application of biogeographic models to the analysis of more realistic problems that involve a large number of areas. Our solution is based on a “data-augmentation” approach, in which we first populate the tree with a history of biogeographic events that is consistent with the observed species ranges at the tips of the tree. We then calculate the likelihood of a given history by adopting a mechanistic interpretation of the instantaneous-rate matrix, which specifies both the exponential waiting times between biogeographic events and the relative probabilities of each biogeographic change. We develop this approach in a Bayesian framework, marginalizing over all possible biogeographic histories using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Besides dramatically increasing the number of areas that can be accommodated in a biogeographic analysis, our method allows the parameters of a given biogeographic model to be estimated and different biogeographic models to be objectively compared. Our approach is implemented in the program, BayArea. [ancestral area analysis; Bayesian biogeographic inference; data augmentation; historical biogeography; Markov chain Monte Carlo.] PMID:23736102

LIFE CLIMATREE project: A novel approach for accounting and monitoring carbon sequestration of tree crops and their potential as carbon sink areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stergiou, John; Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella

2016-04-01

Climate Change Mitigation is one of the most important objectives of the Kyoto Convention, and is mostly oriented towards reducing GHG emissions. However, carbon sink is retained only in the calculation of the forests capacity since agricultural land and farmers practices for securing carbon stored in soils have not been recognized in GHG accounting, possibly resulting in incorrect estimations of the carbon dioxide balance in the atmosphere. The agricultural sector, which is a key sector in the EU, presents a consistent strategic framework since 1954, in the form of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In its latest reform of 2013 (reg. (EU) 1305/13) CAP recognized the significance of Agriculture as a key player in Climate Change policy. In order to fill this gap the "LIFE ClimaTree" project has recently founded by the European Commission aiming to provide a novel method for including tree crop cultivations in the LULUCF's accounting rules for GHG emissions and removal. In the framework of "LIFE ClimaTree" project estimation of carbon sink within EU through the inclusion of the calculated tree crop capacity will be assessed for both current and future climatic conditions by 2050s using the GISS-WRF modeling system in a very fine scale (i.e., 9km x 9km) using RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios. Acknowledgement: LIFE CLIMATREE project "A novel approach for accounting and monitoring carbon sequestration of tree crops and their potential as carbon sink areas" (LIFE14 CCM/GR/000635).

Tree species classification in subtropical forests using small-footprint full-waveform LiDAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Lin; Coops, Nicholas C.; Innes, John L.; Dai, Jinsong; Ruan, Honghua; She, Guanghui

2016-07-01

The accurate classification of tree species is critical for the management of forest ecosystems, particularly subtropical forests, which are highly diverse and complex ecosystems. While airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology offers significant potential to estimate forest structural attributes, the capacity of this new tool to classify species is less well known. In this research, full-waveform metrics were extracted by a voxel-based composite waveform approach and examined with a Random Forests classifier to discriminate six subtropical tree species (i.e., Masson pine (Pinus massoniana Lamb.)), Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.), Slash pines (Pinus elliottii Engelm.), Sawtooth oak (Quercus acutissima Carruth.) and Chinese holly (Ilex chinensis Sims.) at three levels of discrimination. As part of the analysis, the optimal voxel size for modelling the composite waveforms was investigated, the most important predictor metrics for species classification assessed and the effect of scan angle on species discrimination examined. Results demonstrate that all tree species were classified with relatively high accuracy (68.6% for six classes, 75.8% for four main species and 86.2% for conifers and broadleaved trees). Full-waveform metrics (based on height of median energy, waveform distance and number of waveform peaks) demonstrated high classification importance and were stable among various voxel sizes. The results also suggest that the voxel based approach can alleviate some of the issues associated with large scan angles. In summary, the results indicate that full-waveform LIDAR data have significant potential for tree species classification in the subtropical forests.

A comparison of the stochastic and machine learning approaches in hydrologic time series forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Joo, K.; Seo, J.; Heo, J. H.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic time series forecasting is an essential task in water resources management and it becomes more difficult due to the complexity of runoff process. Traditional stochastic models such as ARIMA family has been used as a standard approach in time series modeling and forecasting of hydrological variables. Due to the nonlinearity in hydrologic time series data, machine learning approaches has been studied with the advantage of discovering relevant features in a nonlinear relation among variables. This study aims to compare the predictability between the traditional stochastic model and the machine learning approach. Seasonal ARIMA model was used as the traditional time series model, and Random Forest model which consists of decision tree and ensemble method using multiple predictor approach was applied as the machine learning approach. In the application, monthly inflow data from 1986 to 2015 of Chungju dam in South Korea were used for modeling and forecasting. In order to evaluate the performances of the used models, one step ahead and multi-step ahead forecasting was applied. Root mean squared error and mean absolute error of two models were compared.

The impact of within-herd genetic variation upon inferred transmission trees for foot-and-mouth disease virus.

PubMed

Valdazo-González, Begoña; Kim, Jan T; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Haydon, Daniel T; King, Donald P

2015-06-01

Full-genome sequences have been used to monitor the fine-scale dynamics of epidemics caused by RNA viruses. However, the ability of this approach to confidently reconstruct transmission trees is limited by the knowledge of the genetic diversity of viruses that exist within different epidemiological units. In order to address this question, this study investigated the variability of 45 foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome sequences (from 33 animals) that were collected during 2007 from eight premises (10 different herds) in the United Kingdom. Bayesian and statistical parsimony analysis demonstrated that these sequences exhibited clustering which was consistent with a transmission scenario describing herd-to-herd spread of the virus. As an alternative to analysing all of the available samples in future epidemics, the impact of randomly selecting one sequence from each of these herds was used to assess cost-effective methods that might be used to infer transmission trees during FMD outbreaks. Using these approaches, 85% and 91% of the resulting topologies were either identical or differed by only one edge from a reference tree comprising all of the sequences generated within the outbreak. The sequence distances that accrued during sequential transmission events between epidemiological units was estimated to be 4.6 nucleotides, although the genetic variability between viruses recovered from chronic carrier animals was higher than between viruses from animals with acute-stage infection: an observation which poses challenges for the use of simple approaches to infer transmission trees. This study helps to develop strategies for sampling during FMD outbreaks, and provides data that will guide the development of further models to support control policies in the event of virus incursions into FMD free countries. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating Insults: Using Fault Tree Analysis to Guide Schizophrenia Research across Levels of Analysis.

PubMed

MacDonald Iii, Angus W; Zick, Jennifer L; Chafee, Matthew V; Netoff, Theoden I

2015-01-01

The grand challenges of schizophrenia research are linking the causes of the disorder to its symptoms and finding ways to overcome those symptoms. We argue that the field will be unable to address these challenges within psychiatry's standard neo-Kraepelinian (DSM) perspective. At the same time the current corrective, based in molecular genetics and cognitive neuroscience, is also likely to flounder due to its neglect for psychiatry's syndromal structure. We suggest adopting a new approach long used in reliability engineering, which also serves as a synthesis of these approaches. This approach, known as fault tree analysis, can be combined with extant neuroscientific data collection and computational modeling efforts to uncover the causal structures underlying the cognitive and affective failures in people with schizophrenia as well as other complex psychiatric phenomena. By making explicit how causes combine from basic faults to downstream failures, this approach makes affordances for: (1) causes that are neither necessary nor sufficient in and of themselves; (2) within-diagnosis heterogeneity; and (3) between diagnosis co-morbidity.

Mapping trees outside forests using high-resolution aerial imagery: a comparison of pixel- and object-based classification approaches.

PubMed

Meneguzzo, Dacia M; Liknes, Greg C; Nelson, Mark D

2013-08-01

Discrete trees and small groups of trees in nonforest settings are considered an essential resource around the world and are collectively referred to as trees outside forests (ToF). ToF provide important functions across the landscape, such as protecting soil and water resources, providing wildlife habitat, and improving farmstead energy efficiency and aesthetics. Despite the significance of ToF, forest and other natural resource inventory programs and geospatial land cover datasets that are available at a national scale do not include comprehensive information regarding ToF in the United States. Additional ground-based data collection and acquisition of specialized imagery to inventory these resources are expensive alternatives. As a potential solution, we identified two remote sensing-based approaches that use free high-resolution aerial imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) to map all tree cover in an agriculturally dominant landscape. We compared the results obtained using an unsupervised per-pixel classifier (independent component analysis-[ICA]) and an object-based image analysis (OBIA) procedure in Steele County, Minnesota, USA. Three types of accuracy assessments were used to evaluate how each method performed in terms of: (1) producing a county-level estimate of total tree-covered area, (2) correctly locating tree cover on the ground, and (3) how tree cover patch metrics computed from the classified outputs compared to those delineated by a human photo interpreter. Both approaches were found to be viable for mapping tree cover over a broad spatial extent and could serve to supplement ground-based inventory data. The ICA approach produced an estimate of total tree cover more similar to the photo-interpreted result, but the output from the OBIA method was more realistic in terms of describing the actual observed spatial pattern of tree cover.

The Emergence of Organizing Structure in Conceptual Representation.

PubMed

Lake, Brenden M; Lawrence, Neil D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2018-06-01

Both scientists and children make important structural discoveries, yet their computational underpinnings are not well understood. Structure discovery has previously been formalized as probabilistic inference about the right structural form-where form could be a tree, ring, chain, grid, etc. (Kemp & Tenenbaum, 2008). Although this approach can learn intuitive organizations, including a tree for animals and a ring for the color circle, it assumes a strong inductive bias that considers only these particular forms, and each form is explicitly provided as initial knowledge. Here we introduce a new computational model of how organizing structure can be discovered, utilizing a broad hypothesis space with a preference for sparse connectivity. Given that the inductive bias is more general, the model's initial knowledge shows little qualitative resemblance to some of the discoveries it supports. As a consequence, the model can also learn complex structures for domains that lack intuitive description, as well as predict human property induction judgments without explicit structural forms. By allowing form to emerge from sparsity, our approach clarifies how both the richness and flexibility of human conceptual organization can coexist. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Boosted Multivariate Trees for Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Pande, Amol; Li, Liang; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Ehrlinger, John; Kogalur, Udaya B.; Blackstone, Eugene H.; Ishwaran, Hemant

2017-01-01

Machine learning methods provide a powerful approach for analyzing longitudinal data in which repeated measurements are observed for a subject over time. We boost multivariate trees to fit a novel flexible semi-nonparametric marginal model for longitudinal data. In this model, features are assumed to be nonparametric, while feature-time interactions are modeled semi-nonparametrically utilizing P-splines with estimated smoothing parameter. In order to avoid overfitting, we describe a relatively simple in sample cross-validation method which can be used to estimate the optimal boosting iteration and which has the surprising added benefit of stabilizing certain parameter estimates. Our new multivariate tree boosting method is shown to be highly flexible, robust to covariance misspecification and unbalanced designs, and resistant to overfitting in high dimensions. Feature selection can be used to identify important features and feature-time interactions. An application to longitudinal data of forced 1-second lung expiratory volume (FEV1) for lung transplant patients identifies an important feature-time interaction and illustrates the ease with which our method can find complex relationships in longitudinal data. PMID:29249866

Quantifying and Mapping the Supply of and Demand for Carbon Storage and Sequestration Service from Urban Trees

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chang; Sander, Heather A.

2015-01-01

Studies that assess the distribution of benefits provided by ecosystem services across urban areas are increasingly common. Nevertheless, current knowledge of both the supply and demand sides of ecosystem services remains limited, leaving a gap in our understanding of balance between ecosystem service supply and demand that restricts our ability to assess and manage these services. The present study seeks to fill this gap by developing and applying an integrated approach to quantifying the supply and demand of a key ecosystem service, carbon storage and sequestration, at the local level. This approach follows three basic steps: (1) quantifying and mapping service supply based upon Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) processing and allometric models, (2) quantifying and mapping demand for carbon sequestration using an indicator based on local anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and (3) mapping a supply-to-demand ratio. We illustrate this approach using a portion of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA. Our results indicate that 1735.69 million kg carbon are stored by urban trees in our study area. Annually, 33.43 million kg carbon are sequestered by trees, whereas 3087.60 million kg carbon are emitted by human sources. Thus, carbon sequestration service provided by urban trees in the study location play a minor role in combating climate change, offsetting approximately 1% of local anthropogenic carbon emissions per year, although avoided emissions via storage in trees are substantial. Our supply-to-demand ratio map provides insight into the balance between carbon sequestration supply in urban trees and demand for such sequestration at the local level, pinpointing critical locations where higher levels of supply and demand exist. Such a ratio map could help planners and policy makers to assess and manage the supply of and demand for carbon sequestration. PMID:26317530

Query Language for Location-Based Services: A Model Checking Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoareau, Christian; Satoh, Ichiro

We present a model checking approach to the rationale, implementation, and applications of a query language for location-based services. Such query mechanisms are necessary so that users, objects, and/or services can effectively benefit from the location-awareness of their surrounding environment. The underlying data model is founded on a symbolic model of space organized in a tree structure. Once extended to a semantic model for modal logic, we regard location query processing as a model checking problem, and thus define location queries as hybrid logicbased formulas. Our approach is unique to existing research because it explores the connection between location models and query processing in ubiquitous computing systems, relies on a sound theoretical basis, and provides modal logic-based query mechanisms for expressive searches over a decentralized data structure. A prototype implementation is also presented and will be discussed.

Terrain modeling for real-time simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devarajan, Venkat; McArthur, Donald E.

1993-10-01

There are many applications, such as pilot training, mission rehearsal, and hardware-in-the- loop simulation, which require the generation of realistic images of terrain and man-made objects in real-time. One approach to meeting this requirement is to drape photo-texture over a planar polygon model of the terrain. The real time system then computes, for each pixel of the output image, the address in a texture map based on the intersection of the line-of-sight vector with the terrain model. High quality image generation requires that the terrain be modeled with a fine mesh of polygons while hardware costs limit the number of polygons which may be displayed for each scene. The trade-off between these conflicting requirements must be made in real-time because it depends on the changing position and orientation of the pilot's eye point or simulated sensor. The traditional approach is to develop a data base consisting of multiple levels of detail (LOD), and then selecting for display LODs as a function of range. This approach could lead to both anomalies in the displayed scene and inefficient use of resources. An approach has been developed in which the terrain is modeled with a set of nested polygons and organized as a tree with each node corresponding to a polygon. This tree is pruned to select the optimum set of nodes for each eye-point position. As the point of view moves, the visibility of some nodes drops below the limit of perception and may be deleted while new points must be added in regions near the eye point. An analytical model has been developed to determine the number of polygons required for display. This model leads to quantitative performance measures of the triangulation algorithm which is useful for optimizing system performance with a limited display capability.

Inferring gene regression networks with model trees

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Novel strategies are required in order to handle the huge amount of data produced by microarray technologies. To infer gene regulatory networks, the first step is to find direct regulatory relationships between genes building the so-called gene co-expression networks. They are typically generated using correlation statistics as pairwise similarity measures. Correlation-based methods are very useful in order to determine whether two genes have a strong global similarity but do not detect local similarities. Results We propose model trees as a method to identify gene interaction networks. While correlation-based methods analyze each pair of genes, in our approach we generate a single regression tree for each gene from the remaining genes. Finally, a graph from all the relationships among output and input genes is built taking into account whether the pair of genes is statistically significant. For this reason we apply a statistical procedure to control the false discovery rate. The performance of our approach, named REGNET, is experimentally tested on two well-known data sets: Saccharomyces Cerevisiae and E.coli data set. First, the biological coherence of the results are tested. Second the E.coli transcriptional network (in the Regulon database) is used as control to compare the results to that of a correlation-based method. This experiment shows that REGNET performs more accurately at detecting true gene associations than the Pearson and Spearman zeroth and first-order correlation-based methods. Conclusions REGNET generates gene association networks from gene expression data, and differs from correlation-based methods in that the relationship between one gene and others is calculated simultaneously. Model trees are very useful techniques to estimate the numerical values for the target genes by linear regression functions. They are very often more precise than linear regression models because they can add just different linear regressions to separate areas of the search space favoring to infer localized similarities over a more global similarity. Furthermore, experimental results show the good performance of REGNET. PMID:20950452

Designing Green Stormwater Infrastructure for Hydrologic and Human Benefits: An Image Based Machine Learning Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, A.; Minsker, B. S.

2014-12-01

Urbanization over the last century has degraded our natural water resources by increasing storm-water runoff, reducing nutrient retention, and creating poor ecosystem health downstream. The loss of tree canopy and expansion of impervious area and storm sewer systems have significantly decreased infiltration and evapotranspiration, increased stream-flow velocities, and increased flood risk. These problems have brought increasing attention to catchment-wide implementation of green infrastructure (e.g., decentralized green storm water management practices such as bioswales, rain gardens, permeable pavements, tree box filters, cisterns, urban wetlands, urban forests, stream buffers, and green roofs) to replace or supplement conventional storm water management practices and create more sustainable urban water systems. Current green infrastructure (GI) practice aims at mitigating the negative effects of urbanization by restoring pre-development hydrology and ultimately addressing water quality issues at an urban catchment scale. The benefits of green infrastructure extend well beyond local storm water management, as urban green spaces are also major contributors to human health. Considerable research in the psychological sciences have shown significant human health benefits from appropriately designed green spaces, yet impacts on human wellbeing have not yet been formally considered in GI design frameworks. This research is developing a novel computational green infrastructure (GI) design framework that integrates hydrologic requirements with criteria for human wellbeing. A supervised machine learning model is created to identify specific patterns in urban green spaces that promote human wellbeing; the model is linked to RHESSYS model to evaluate GI designs in terms of both hydrologic and human health benefits. An application of the models to Dead Run Watershed in Baltimore showed that image mining methods were able to capture key elements of human preferences that could improve tree-based GI design. Hydrologic benefits associated with these features were substantial, indicating that increased urban tree coverage and a more integrated GI design approach can significantly increase both human and hydrologic benefits.

Accurate Phylogenetic Tree Reconstruction from Quartets: A Heuristic Approach

PubMed Central

Reaz, Rezwana; Bayzid, Md. Shamsuzzoha; Rahman, M. Sohel

2014-01-01

Supertree methods construct trees on a set of taxa (species) combining many smaller trees on the overlapping subsets of the entire set of taxa. A ‘quartet’ is an unrooted tree over taxa, hence the quartet-based supertree methods combine many -taxon unrooted trees into a single and coherent tree over the complete set of taxa. Quartet-based phylogeny reconstruction methods have been receiving considerable attentions in the recent years. An accurate and efficient quartet-based method might be competitive with the current best phylogenetic tree reconstruction methods (such as maximum likelihood or Bayesian MCMC analyses), without being as computationally intensive. In this paper, we present a novel and highly accurate quartet-based phylogenetic tree reconstruction method. We performed an extensive experimental study to evaluate the accuracy and scalability of our approach on both simulated and biological datasets. PMID:25117474

Folding Automaton for Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subashini, N.; Thiagarajan, K.

2018-04-01

In this paper we observed the definition of folding technique in graph theory and we derived the corresponding automaton for trees. Also derived some propositions on symmetrical structure tree, non-symmetrical structure tree, point symmetrical structure tree, edge symmetrical structure tree along with finite number of points. This approach provides to derive one edge after n’ number of foldings.

Automated construction of arterial and venous trees in retinal images

PubMed Central

Hu, Qiao; Abràmoff, Michael D.; Garvin, Mona K.

2015-01-01

Abstract. While many approaches exist to segment retinal vessels in fundus photographs, only a limited number focus on the construction and disambiguation of arterial and venous trees. Previous approaches are local and/or greedy in nature, making them susceptible to errors or limiting their applicability to large vessels. We propose a more global framework to generate arteriovenous trees in retinal images, given a vessel segmentation. In particular, our approach consists of three stages. The first stage is to generate an overconnected vessel network, named the vessel potential connectivity map (VPCM), consisting of vessel segments and the potential connectivity between them. The second stage is to disambiguate the VPCM into multiple anatomical trees, using a graph-based metaheuristic algorithm. The third stage is to classify these trees into arterial or venous (A/V) trees. We evaluated our approach with a ground truth built based on a public database, showing a pixel-wise classification accuracy of 88.15% using a manual vessel segmentation as input, and 86.11% using an automatic vessel segmentation as input. PMID:26636114

Annual Proxy Records from Tropical Cloud Forest Trees in the Monteverde Cloud Forest, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Evans, M. N.; Wheelwright, N. T.; Schrag, D. P.

2005-12-01

The extinction of the Golden Toad (Bufo periglenes) from Costa Rica's Monteverde Cloud Forest prompted research into the causes of ecological change in the montane forests of Costa Rica. Subsequent analysis of meteorological data has suggested that warmer global surface and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures contribute to an observed decrease in cloud cover at Monteverde. However, while recent studies may have concluded that climate change is already having an effect on cloud forest environments in Costa Rica, without the context provided by long-term climate records, it is difficult to confidently conclude that the observed ecological changes are the result of anthropogenic climate forcing, land clearance in the lowland rainforest, or natural variability in tropical climate. To address this, we develop high-resolution proxy paleoclimate records from trees without annual rings in the Monteverde Cloud Forest in Costa Rica. Calibration of an age model in these trees is a fundamental prerequisite for proxy paleoclimate reconstructions. Our approach exploits the isotopic seasonality in the δ18O of water sources (fog versus rainfall) used by trees over the course of a single year. Ocotea tenera individuals of known age and measured annual growth increments were sampled in long-term monitored plantation sites in order to test this proposed age model. High-resolution (200μm increments) stable isotope measurements on cellulose reveal distinct, coherent δ18O cycles of 6 to 10‰. The calculated growth rates derived from the isotope timeseries match those observed from basal growth increment measurements. Spatial fidelity in the age model and climate signal is examined by using multiple cores from multiple trees and multiple sites. These data support our hypothesis that annual isotope cycles in these trees can be used to provide chronological control in the absence of rings. The ability of trees to record interannual climate variability in local hydrometeorology and remote climate forcing is evaluated using the isotope signal from multiple trees, local meteorological observations, and climate field data for the well-observed 1997-1998 warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. The successful calibration of our age model is a necessary step toward the development of long, annually-resolved paleoclimate reconstructions from old trees, even without rings, which will be used to evaluate the cause of recent observed climate change at Monteverde and as proxies for tropical climate field reconstructions.

Individual tree detection in intact forest and degraded forest areas in the north region of Mato Grosso State, Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, E. G.; Jorge, A.; Shimabukuro, Y. E.; Gasparini, K.

2017-12-01

The State of Mato Grosso - MT has the second largest area with degraded forest among the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Land use and land cover change processes that occur in this region cause the loss of forest biomass, releasing greenhouse gases that contribute to the increase of temperature on earth. These degraded forest areas lose biomass according to the intensity and magnitude of the degradation type. The estimate of forest biomass, commonly performed by forest inventory through sample plots, shows high variance in degraded forest areas. Due to this variance and complexity of tropical forests, the aim of this work was to estimate forest biomass using LiDAR point clouds in three distinct forest areas: one degraded by fire, another by selective logging and one area of intact forest. The approach applied in these areas was the Individual Tree Detection (ITD). To isolate the trees, we generated Canopy Height Models (CHM) images, which are obtained by subtracting the Digital Elevation Model (MDE) and the Digital Terrain Model (MDT), created by the cloud of LiDAR points. The trees in the CHM images are isolated by an algorithm provided by the Quantitative Ecology research group at the School of Forestry at Northern Arizona University (SILVA, 2015). With these points, metrics were calculated for some areas, which were used in the model of biomass estimation. The methodology used in this work was expected to reduce the error in biomass estimate in the study area. The cloud points of the most representative trees were analyzed, and thus field data was correlated with the individual trees found by the proposed algorithm. In a pilot study, the proposed methodology was applied generating the individual tree metrics: total height and area of the crown. When correlating 339 isolated trees, an unsatisfactory R² was obtained, as heights found by the algorithm were lower than those obtained in the field, with an average difference of 2.43 m. This shows that the algorithm used to isolate trees in temperate areas did not obtained satisfactory results in the tropical forest of Mato Grosso State. Due to this, in future works two algorithms, one developed by Dalponte et al. (2015) and another by Li et al. (2012) will be used.

Low frequency full waveform seismic inversion within a tree based Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Anandaroop; Kaplan, Sam; Washbourne, John; Albertin, Uwe

2018-01-01

Limited illumination, insufficient offset, noisy data and poor starting models can pose challenges for seismic full waveform inversion. We present an application of a tree based Bayesian inversion scheme which attempts to mitigate these problems by accounting for data uncertainty while using a mildly informative prior about subsurface structure. We sample the resulting posterior model distribution of compressional velocity using a trans-dimensional (trans-D) or Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method in the wavelet transform domain of velocity. This allows us to attain rapid convergence to a stationary distribution of posterior models while requiring a limited number of wavelet coefficients to define a sampled model. Two synthetic, low frequency, noisy data examples are provided. The first example is a simple reflection + transmission inverse problem, and the second uses a scaled version of the Marmousi velocity model, dominated by reflections. Both examples are initially started from a semi-infinite half-space with incorrect background velocity. We find that the trans-D tree based approach together with parallel tempering for navigating rugged likelihood (i.e. misfit) topography provides a promising, easily generalized method for solving large-scale geophysical inverse problems which are difficult to optimize, but where the true model contains a hierarchy of features at multiple scales.

Probabilistic atlas based labeling of the cerebral vessel tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van de Giessen, Martijn; Janssen, Jasper P.; Brouwer, Patrick A.; Reiber, Johan H. C.; Lelieveldt, Boudewijn P. F.; Dijkstra, Jouke

2015-03-01

Preoperative imaging of the cerebral vessel tree is essential for planning therapy on intracranial stenoses and aneurysms. Usually, a magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) or computed tomography angiography (CTA) is acquired from which the cerebral vessel tree is segmented. Accurate analysis is helped by the labeling of the cerebral vessels, but labeling is non-trivial due to anatomical topological variability and missing branches due to acquisition issues. In recent literature, labeling the cerebral vasculature around the Circle of Willis has mainly been approached as a graph-based problem. The most successful method, however, requires the definition of all possible permutations of missing vessels, which limits application to subsets of the tree and ignores spatial information about the vessel locations. This research aims to perform labeling using probabilistic atlases that model spatial vessel and label likelihoods. A cerebral vessel tree is aligned to a probabilistic atlas and subsequently each vessel is labeled by computing the maximum label likelihood per segment from label-specific atlases. The proposed method was validated on 25 segmented cerebral vessel trees. Labeling accuracies were close to 100% for large vessels, but dropped to 50-60% for small vessels that were only present in less than 50% of the set. With this work we showed that using solely spatial information of the vessel labels, vessel segments from stable vessels (>50% presence) were reliably classified. This spatial information will form the basis for a future labeling strategy with a very loose topological model.

An algorithm for computing the gene tree probability under the multispecies coalescent and its application in the inference of population tree

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Motivation: Gene tree represents the evolutionary history of gene lineages that originate from multiple related populations. Under the multispecies coalescent model, lineages may coalesce outside the species (population) boundary. Given a species tree (with branch lengths), the gene tree probability is the probability of observing a specific gene tree topology under the multispecies coalescent model. There are two existing algorithms for computing the exact gene tree probability. The first algorithm is due to Degnan and Salter, where they enumerate all the so-called coalescent histories for the given species tree and the gene tree topology. Their algorithm runs in exponential time in the number of gene lineages in general. The second algorithm is the STELLS algorithm (2012), which is usually faster but also runs in exponential time in almost all the cases. Results: In this article, we present a new algorithm, called CompactCH, for computing the exact gene tree probability. This new algorithm is based on the notion of compact coalescent histories: multiple coalescent histories are represented by a single compact coalescent history. The key advantage of our new algorithm is that it runs in polynomial time in the number of gene lineages if the number of populations is fixed to be a constant. The new algorithm is more efficient than the STELLS algorithm both in theory and in practice when the number of populations is small and there are multiple gene lineages from each population. As an application, we show that CompactCH can be applied in the inference of population tree (i.e. the population divergence history) from population haplotypes. Simulation results show that the CompactCH algorithm enables efficient and accurate inference of population trees with much more haplotypes than a previous approach. Availability: The CompactCH algorithm is implemented in the STELLS software package, which is available for download at http://www.engr.uconn.edu/ywu/STELLS.html. Contact: ywu@engr.uconn.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27307621

Mapping Urban Tree Canopy Coverage and Structure using Data Fusion of High Resolution Satellite Imagery and Aerial Lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmes, A.; Rogan, J.; Williams, C. A.; Martin, D. G.; Ratick, S.; Nowak, D.

2015-12-01

Urban tree canopy (UTC) coverage is a critical component of sustainable urban areas. Trees provide a number of important ecosystem services, including air pollution mitigation, water runoff control, and aesthetic and cultural values. Critically, urban trees also act to mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) effect by shading impervious surfaces and via evaporative cooling. The cooling effect of urban trees can be seen locally, with individual trees reducing home HVAC costs, and at a citywide scale, reducing the extent and magnitude of an urban areas UHI. In order to accurately model the ecosystem services of a given urban forest, it is essential to map in detail the condition and composition of these trees at a fine scale, capturing individual tree crowns and their vertical structure. This paper presents methods for delineating UTC and measuring canopy structure at fine spatial resolution (<1m). These metrics are essential for modeling the HVAC benefits from UTC for individual homes, and for assessing the ecosystem services for entire urban areas. Such maps have previously been made using a variety of methods, typically relying on high resolution aerial or satellite imagery. This paper seeks to contribute to this growing body of methods, relying on a data fusion method to combine the information contained in high resolution WorldView-3 satellite imagery and aerial lidar data using an object-based image classification approach. The study area, Worcester, MA, has recently undergone a large-scale tree removal and reforestation program, following a pest eradication effort. Therefore, the urban canopy in this location provides a wide mix of tree age class and functional type, ideal for illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed methods. Early results show that the object-based classifier is indeed capable of identifying individual tree crowns, while continued research will focus on extracting crown structural characteristics using lidar-derived metrics. Ultimately, the resulting fine resolution UTC map will be compared with previously created UTC maps of the same area but for earlier dates, producing a canopy change map corresponding to the Worcester area tree removal and replanting effort.

Cognitive Support During High-Consequence Episodes of Care in Cardiovascular Surgery.

PubMed

Conboy, Heather M; Avrunin, George S; Clarke, Lori A; Osterweil, Leon J; Christov, Stefan C; Goldman, Julian M; Yule, Steven J; Zenati, Marco A

2017-03-01

Despite significant efforts to reduce preventable adverse events in medical processes, such events continue to occur at unacceptable rates. This paper describes a computer science approach that uses formal process modeling to provide situationally aware monitoring and management support to medical professionals performing complex processes. These process models represent both normative and non-normative situations, and are validated by rigorous automated techniques such as model checking and fault tree analysis, in addition to careful review by experts. Context-aware Smart Checklists are then generated from the models, providing cognitive support during high-consequence surgical episodes. The approach is illustrated with a case study in cardiovascular surgery.

Constraint Embedding Technique for Multibody System Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woo, Simon S.; Cheng, Michael K.

2011-01-01

Multibody dynamics play a critical role in simulation testbeds for space missions. There has been a considerable interest in the development of efficient computational algorithms for solving the dynamics of multibody systems. Mass matrix factorization and inversion techniques and the O(N) class of forward dynamics algorithms developed using a spatial operator algebra stand out as important breakthrough on this front. Techniques such as these provide the efficient algorithms and methods for the application and implementation of such multibody dynamics models. However, these methods are limited only to tree-topology multibody systems. Closed-chain topology systems require different techniques that are not as efficient or as broad as those for tree-topology systems. The closed-chain forward dynamics approach consists of treating the closed-chain topology as a tree-topology system subject to additional closure constraints. The resulting forward dynamics solution consists of: (a) ignoring the closure constraints and using the O(N) algorithm to solve for the free unconstrained accelerations for the system; (b) using the tree-topology solution to compute a correction force to enforce the closure constraints; and (c) correcting the unconstrained accelerations with correction accelerations resulting from the correction forces. This constraint-embedding technique shows how to use direct embedding to eliminate local closure-loops in the system and effectively convert the system back to a tree-topology system. At this point, standard tree-topology techniques can be brought to bear on the problem. The approach uses a spatial operator algebra approach to formulating the equations of motion. The operators are block-partitioned around the local body subgroups to convert them into aggregate bodies. Mass matrix operator factorization and inversion techniques are applied to the reformulated tree-topology system. Thus in essence, the new technique allows conversion of a system with closure-constraints into an equivalent tree-topology system, and thus allows one to take advantage of the host of techniques available to the latter class of systems. This technology is highly suitable for the class of multibody systems where the closure-constraints are local, i.e., where they are confined to small groupings of bodies within the system. Important examples of such local closure-constraints are constraints associated with four-bar linkages, geared motors, differential suspensions, etc. One can eliminate these closure-constraints and convert the system into a tree-topology system by embedding the constraints directly into the system dynamics and effectively replacing the body groupings with virtual aggregate bodies. Once eliminated, one can apply the well-known results and algorithms for tree-topology systems to solve the dynamics of such closed-chain system.

Reconstruction of forest geometries from terrestrial laser scanning point clouds for canopy radiative transfer modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bremer, Magnus; Schmidtner, Korbinian; Rutzinger, Martin

2015-04-01

The architecture of forest canopies is a key parameter for forest ecological issues helping to model the variability of wood biomass and foliage in space and time. In order to understand the nature of subpixel effects of optical space-borne sensors with coarse spatial resolution, hypothetical 3D canopy models are widely used for the simulation of radiative transfer in forests. Thereby, radiation is traced through the atmosphere and canopy geometries until it reaches the optical sensor. For a realistic simulation scene we decompose terrestrial laser scanning point cloud data of leaf-off larch forest plots in the Austrian Alps and reconstruct detailed model ready input data for radiative transfer simulations. The point clouds are pre-classified into primitive classes using Principle Component Analysis (PCA) using scale adapted radius neighbourhoods. Elongated point structures are extracted as tree trunks. The tree trunks are used as seeds for a Dijkstra-growing procedure, in order to obtain single tree segmentation in the interlinked canopies. For the optimized reconstruction of branching architectures as vector models, point cloud skeletonisation is used in combination with an iterative Dijkstra-growing and by applying distance constraints. This allows conducting a hierarchical reconstruction preferring the tree trunk and higher order branches and avoiding over-skeletonization effects. Based on the reconstructed branching architectures, larch needles are modelled based on the hierarchical level of branches and the geometrical openness of the canopy. For radiative transfer simulations, branch architectures are used as mesh geometries representing branches as cylindrical pipes. Needles are either used as meshes or as voxel-turbids. The presented workflow allows an automatic classification and single tree segmentation in interlinked canopies. The iterative Dijkstra-growing using distance constraints generated realistic reconstruction results. As the mesh representation of branches proved to be sufficient for the simulation approach, the modelling of huge amounts of needles is much more efficient in voxel-turbid representation.

Evaluation of experimental design and computational parameter choices affecting analyses of ChIP-seq and RNA-seq data in undomesticated poplar trees.

Treesearch

Lijun Liu; V. Missirian; Matthew S. Zinkgraf; Andrew Groover; V. Filkov

2014-01-01

Background: One of the great advantages of next generation sequencing is the ability to generate large genomic datasets for virtually all species, including non-model organisms. It should be possible, in turn, to apply advanced computational approaches to these datasets to develop models of biological processes. In a practical sense, working with non-model organisms...

Tree allometry and improved estimation of carbon stocks and balance in tropical forests.

PubMed

Chave, J; Andalo, C; Brown, S; Cairns, M A; Chambers, J Q; Eamus, D; Fölster, H; Fromard, F; Higuchi, N; Kira, T; Lescure, J-P; Nelson, B W; Ogawa, H; Puig, H; Riéra, B; Yamakura, T

2005-08-01

Tropical forests hold large stores of carbon, yet uncertainty remains regarding their quantitative contribution to the global carbon cycle. One approach to quantifying carbon biomass stores consists in inferring changes from long-term forest inventory plots. Regression models are used to convert inventory data into an estimate of aboveground biomass (AGB). We provide a critical reassessment of the quality and the robustness of these models across tropical forest types, using a large dataset of 2,410 trees >or= 5 cm diameter, directly harvested in 27 study sites across the tropics. Proportional relationships between aboveground biomass and the product of wood density, trunk cross-sectional area, and total height are constructed. We also develop a regression model involving wood density and stem diameter only. Our models were tested for secondary and old-growth forests, for dry, moist and wet forests, for lowland and montane forests, and for mangrove forests. The most important predictors of AGB of a tree were, in decreasing order of importance, its trunk diameter, wood specific gravity, total height, and forest type (dry, moist, or wet). Overestimates prevailed, giving a bias of 0.5-6.5% when errors were averaged across all stands. Our regression models can be used reliably to predict aboveground tree biomass across a broad range of tropical forests. Because they are based on an unprecedented dataset, these models should improve the quality of tropical biomass estimates, and bring consensus about the contribution of the tropical forest biome and tropical deforestation to the global carbon cycle.

Comparison of Sub-Pixel Classification Approaches for Crop-Specific Mapping

EPA Science Inventory

This paper examined two non-linear models, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) regression and Regression Tree (RT), for estimating sub-pixel crop proportions using time-series MODIS-NDVI data. The sub-pixel proportions were estimated for three major crop types including corn, soybean, a...

Crown profile equations for stand-grown western hemlock trees in northwestern Oregon.

Treesearch

David D. Marshall; Gregory P. Johnson; David W. Hann

2003-01-01

Crown profile equations were developed for stand-grown western hemlock(Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) in northwest Oregon. The profile model uses a segmented approach, dividing the crown into an upper and lower portion at the point of the largest crown width (LCW). The model explains about 86% of the variation in crown width when LCW is known but...

Taking a systems approach to ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, James B.

2015-01-01

Increasingly, there is interest in a systems-level understanding of ecological problems, which requires the evaluation of more complex, causal hypotheses. In this issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science, Soliveres et al. use structural equation modeling to test a causal network hypothesis about how tree canopies affect understorey communities. Historical analysis suggests structural equation modeling has been under-utilized in ecology.

Morphometric differences and fluctuating asymmetry in Melipona subnitida Ducke 1910 (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in different types of housing.

PubMed

Lima, C B S; Nunes, L A; Carvalho, C A L; Ribeiro, M F; Souza, B A; Silva, C S B

2016-01-01

A geometric morphometrics approach was applied to evaluate differences in forewing patterns of the Jandaira bee (Melipona subnitida Ducke). For this, we studied the presence of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) in forewing shape and size of colonies kept in either rational hive boxes or natural tree trunks. We detected significant FA for wing size as well as wing shape independent of the type of housing (rational box or tree trunks), indicating the overall presence of stress during the development of the studied specimens. FA was also significant (p < 0.01) between rational boxes, possibly related to the use of various models of rational boxes used for keeping stingless bees. In addition, a Principal Component Analysis indicated morphometric variation between bee colonies kept in either rational hive boxes or in tree trunks, that may be related to the different origins of the bees: tree trunk colonies were relocated natural colonies while rational box colonies originated from multiplying other colonies. We conclude that adequate measures should be taken to reduce the amount of stress during bee handling by using standard models of rational boxes that cause the least disruption.

Maximum likelihood inference implies a high, not a low, ancestral haploid chromosome number in Araceae, with a critique of the bias introduced by ‘x’

PubMed Central

Cusimano, Natalie; Sousa, Aretuza; Renner, Susanne S.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims For 84 years, botanists have relied on calculating the highest common factor for series of haploid chromosome numbers to arrive at a so-called basic number, x. This was done without consistent (reproducible) reference to species relationships and frequencies of different numbers in a clade. Likelihood models that treat polyploidy, chromosome fusion and fission as events with particular probabilities now allow reconstruction of ancestral chromosome numbers in an explicit framework. We have used a modelling approach to reconstruct chromosome number change in the large monocot family Araceae and to test earlier hypotheses about basic numbers in the family. Methods Using a maximum likelihood approach and chromosome counts for 26 % of the 3300 species of Araceae and representative numbers for each of the other 13 families of Alismatales, polyploidization events and single chromosome changes were inferred on a genus-level phylogenetic tree for 113 of the 117 genera of Araceae. Key Results The previously inferred basic numbers x = 14 and x = 7 are rejected. Instead, maximum likelihood optimization revealed an ancestral haploid chromosome number of n = 16, Bayesian inference of n = 18. Chromosome fusion (loss) is the predominant inferred event, whereas polyploidization events occurred less frequently and mainly towards the tips of the tree. Conclusions The bias towards low basic numbers (x) introduced by the algebraic approach to inferring chromosome number changes, prevalent among botanists, may have contributed to an unrealistic picture of ancestral chromosome numbers in many plant clades. The availability of robust quantitative methods for reconstructing ancestral chromosome numbers on molecular phylogenetic trees (with or without branch length information), with confidence statistics, makes the calculation of x an obsolete approach, at least when applied to large clades. PMID:22210850

Establishing a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling.

PubMed

Hadorn, Daniela C; Racloz, Vanessa; Schwermer, Heinzpeter; Stärk, Katharina D C

2009-01-01

Vector-borne diseases pose a special challenge to veterinary authorities due to complex and time-consuming surveillance programs taking into account vector habitat. Using stochastic scenario tree modelling, each possible surveillance activity of a future surveillance system can be evaluated with regard to its sensitivity and the expected cost. The overall sensitivity of various potential surveillance systems, composed of different combinations of surveillance activities, is calculated and the proposed surveillance system is optimized with respect to the considered surveillance activities, the sensitivity and the cost. The objective of this project was to use stochastic scenario tree modelling in combination with a simple cost analysis in order to develop the national surveillance system for Bluetongue in Switzerland. This surveillance system was established due to the emerging outbreak of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in Northern Europe in 2006. Based on the modelling results, it was decided to implement an improved passive clinical surveillance in cattle and sheep through campaigns in order to increase disease awareness alongside a targeted bulk milk testing strategy in 200 dairy cattle herds located in high-risk areas. The estimated median probability of detection of cases (i.e. sensitivity) of the surveillance system in this combined approach was 96.4%. The evaluation of the prospective national surveillance system predicted that passive clinical surveillance in cattle would provide the highest probability to detect BTV-8 infected animals, followed by passive clinical surveillance in sheep and bulk milk testing of 200 dairy cattle farms in high-risk areas. This approach is also applicable in other countries and to other epidemic diseases.

An integrated approach to system design, reliability, and diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Iverson, David L.

1990-01-01

The requirement for ultradependability of computer systems in future avionics and space applications necessitates a top-down, integrated systems engineering approach for design, implementation, testing, and operation. The functional analyses of hardware and software systems must be combined by models that are flexible enough to represent their interactions and behavior. The information contained in these models must be accessible throughout all phases of the system life cycle in order to maintain consistency and accuracy in design and operational decisions. One approach being taken by researchers at Ames Research Center is the creation of an object-oriented environment that integrates information about system components required in the reliability evaluation with behavioral information useful for diagnostic algorithms. Procedures have been developed at Ames that perform reliability evaluations during design and failure diagnoses during system operation. These procedures utilize information from a central source, structured as object-oriented fault trees. Fault trees were selected because they are a flexible model widely used in aerospace applications and because they give a concise, structured representation of system behavior. The utility of this integrated environment for aerospace applications in light of our experiences during its development and use is described. The techniques for reliability evaluation and failure diagnosis are discussed, and current extensions of the environment and areas requiring further development are summarized.

Characterization of shrubland ecosystem components as continuous fields in the northwest United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Shi, Hua; Meyer, Debbie

2015-01-01

Accurate and consistent estimates of shrubland ecosystem components are crucial to a better understanding of ecosystem conditions in arid and semiarid lands. An innovative approach was developed by integrating multiple sources of information to quantify shrubland components as continuous field products within the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). The approach consists of several procedures including field sample collections, high-resolution mapping of shrubland components using WorldView-2 imagery and regression tree models, Landsat 8 radiometric balancing and phenological mosaicking, medium resolution estimates of shrubland components following different climate zones using Landsat 8 phenological mosaics and regression tree models, and product validation. Fractional covers of nine shrubland components were estimated: annual herbaceous, bare ground, big sagebrush, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, shrub, sagebrush height, and shrub height. Our study area included the footprint of six Landsat 8 scenes in the northwestern United States. Results show that most components have relatively significant correlations with validation data, have small normalized root mean square errors, and correspond well with expected ecological gradients. While some uncertainties remain with height estimates, the model formulated in this study provides a cross-validated, unbiased, and cost effective approach to quantify shrubland components at a regional scale and advances knowledge of horizontal and vertical variability of these components.

An integrated approach to system design, reliability, and diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Iverson, David L.

1990-12-01

The requirement for ultradependability of computer systems in future avionics and space applications necessitates a top-down, integrated systems engineering approach for design, implementation, testing, and operation. The functional analyses of hardware and software systems must be combined by models that are flexible enough to represent their interactions and behavior. The information contained in these models must be accessible throughout all phases of the system life cycle in order to maintain consistency and accuracy in design and operational decisions. One approach being taken by researchers at Ames Research Center is the creation of an object-oriented environment that integrates information about system components required in the reliability evaluation with behavioral information useful for diagnostic algorithms. Procedures have been developed at Ames that perform reliability evaluations during design and failure diagnoses during system operation. These procedures utilize information from a central source, structured as object-oriented fault trees. Fault trees were selected because they are a flexible model widely used in aerospace applications and because they give a concise, structured representation of system behavior. The utility of this integrated environment for aerospace applications in light of our experiences during its development and use is described. The techniques for reliability evaluation and failure diagnosis are discussed, and current extensions of the environment and areas requiring further development are summarized.

Improving LiDAR Biomass Model Uncertainty through Non-Destructive Allometry and Plot-level 3D Reconstruction with Terrestrial Laser Scanning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stovall, A. E.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.

2017-12-01

Future NASA and ESA satellite missions plan to better quantify global carbon through detailed observations of forest structure, but ultimately rely on uncertain ground measurement approaches for calibration and validation. A significant amount of the uncertainty in estimating plot-level biomass can be attributed to inadequate and unrepresentative allometric relationships used to convert plot-level tree measurements to estimates of aboveground biomass. These allometric equations are known to have high errors and biases, particularly in carbon rich forests because they were calibrated with small and often biased samples of destructively harvested trees. To overcome this issue, a non-destructive methodology for estimating tree and plot-level biomass has been proposed through the use of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS). We investigated the potential for using TLS as a ground validation approach in LiDAR-based biomass mapping though virtual plot-level tree volume reconstruction and biomass estimation. Plot-level biomass estimates were compared on the Virginia-based Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute's SIGEO forest with full 3D reconstruction, TLS allometry, and Jenkins et al. (2003) allometry. On average, full 3D reconstruction ultimately provided the lowest uncertainty estimate of plot-level biomass (9.6%), followed by TLS allometry (16.9%) and the national equations (20.2%). TLS offered modest improvements to the airborne LiDAR empirical models, reducing RMSE from 16.2% to 14%. Our findings suggest TLS plot acquisitions and non-destructive allometry can play a vital role for reducing uncertainty in calibration and validation data for biomass mapping in the upcoming NASA and ESA missions.

Soil Carbon Storage in Christmas Tree Farms: Maximizing Ecosystem Management and Sustainability for Carbon Sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. K.; Shaw, R.; Langley, A.

2008-12-01

Management of agroecosystems for the purpose of manipulating soil carbon stocks could be a viable approach for countering rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, while maximizing sustainability of the agroforestry industry. We investigated the carbon storage potential of Christmas tree farms in the southern Appalachian mountains as a potential model for the impacts of land management on soil carbon. We quantified soil carbon stocks across a gradient of cultivation duration and herbicide management. We compared soil carbon in farms to that in adjacent pastures and native forests that represent a control group to account for variability in other soil-forming factors. We partitioned tree farm soil carbon into fractions delineated by stability, an important determinant of long-term sequestration potential. Soil carbon stocks in the intermediate pool are significantly greater in the tree farms under cultivation for longer periods of time than in the younger tree farms. This pool can be quite large, yet has the ability to repond to biological environmental changes on the centennial time scale. Pasture soil carbon was significantly greater than both forest and tree farm soil carbon, which were not different from each other. These data can help inform land management and soil carbon sequestration strategies.

Metabarcoding of marine nematodes – evaluation of reference datasets used in tree-based taxonomy assignment approach

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Background Metabarcoding is becoming a common tool used to assess and compare diversity of organisms in environmental samples. Identification of OTUs is one of the critical steps in the process and several taxonomy assignment methods were proposed to accomplish this task. This publication evaluates the quality of reference datasets, alongside with several alignment and phylogeny inference methods used in one of the taxonomy assignment methods, called tree-based approach. This approach assigns anonymous OTUs to taxonomic categories based on relative placements of OTUs and reference sequences on the cladogram and support that these placements receive. New information In tree-based taxonomy assignment approach, reliable identification of anonymous OTUs is based on their placement in monophyletic and highly supported clades together with identified reference taxa. Therefore, it requires high quality reference dataset to be used. Resolution of phylogenetic trees is strongly affected by the presence of erroneous sequences as well as alignment and phylogeny inference methods used in the process. Two preparation steps are essential for the successful application of tree-based taxonomy assignment approach. Curated collections of genetic information do include erroneous sequences. These sequences have detrimental effect on the resolution of cladograms used in tree-based approach. They must be identified and excluded from the reference dataset beforehand. Various combinations of multiple sequence alignment and phylogeny inference methods provide cladograms with different topology and bootstrap support. These combinations of methods need to be tested in order to determine the one that gives highest resolution for the particular reference dataset. Completing the above mentioned preparation steps is expected to decrease the number of unassigned OTUs and thus improve the results of the tree-based taxonomy assignment approach. PMID:27932919

Metabarcoding of marine nematodes - evaluation of reference datasets used in tree-based taxonomy assignment approach.

PubMed

Holovachov, Oleksandr

2016-01-01

Metabarcoding is becoming a common tool used to assess and compare diversity of organisms in environmental samples. Identification of OTUs is one of the critical steps in the process and several taxonomy assignment methods were proposed to accomplish this task. This publication evaluates the quality of reference datasets, alongside with several alignment and phylogeny inference methods used in one of the taxonomy assignment methods, called tree-based approach. This approach assigns anonymous OTUs to taxonomic categories based on relative placements of OTUs and reference sequences on the cladogram and support that these placements receive. In tree-based taxonomy assignment approach, reliable identification of anonymous OTUs is based on their placement in monophyletic and highly supported clades together with identified reference taxa. Therefore, it requires high quality reference dataset to be used. Resolution of phylogenetic trees is strongly affected by the presence of erroneous sequences as well as alignment and phylogeny inference methods used in the process. Two preparation steps are essential for the successful application of tree-based taxonomy assignment approach. Curated collections of genetic information do include erroneous sequences. These sequences have detrimental effect on the resolution of cladograms used in tree-based approach. They must be identified and excluded from the reference dataset beforehand.Various combinations of multiple sequence alignment and phylogeny inference methods provide cladograms with different topology and bootstrap support. These combinations of methods need to be tested in order to determine the one that gives highest resolution for the particular reference dataset.Completing the above mentioned preparation steps is expected to decrease the number of unassigned OTUs and thus improve the results of the tree-based taxonomy assignment approach.

Assessment of the salt tolerance and environmental biosafety of Eucalyptus camaldulensis harboring a mangrin transgene.

PubMed

Yu, Xiang; Kikuchi, Akira; Shimazaki, Takayoshi; Yamada, Akiyo; Ozeki, Yoshihiro; Matsunaga, Etsuko; Ebinuma, Hiroyasu; Watanabe, Kazuo N

2013-01-01

Increasing soil salinization of arable land has a major impact on the global ecosystem. One approach to increase the usable global forest area is to develop transgenic trees with higher tolerance to conditions of salt stress. An allene oxide cyclase homolog, mangrin, contains a core protein domain that enhances the salt tolerance of its host. We utilized this feature to develop improved salt-tolerant eucalyptus trees, by using transgenic Eucalyptus camaldulensis carrying the mangrin gene as a model. Since the Japanese government requires an environmental biosafety assessment for the surrounding biosphere, we performed experiments on trees grown in a special netted-house. This study examined the transgenic E. camaldulensis carrying the mangrin gene to assess the feasibility of using these transformants, and assessed their salt tolerance and environmental biosafety. We found that seven of 36 transgenic genotypes had significantly higher salt tolerance than non-transformants, and more importantly, that these plants had no significant impact on environmental biosafety. These results suggest that introduction of the mangrin gene may be one approach to safely enhance salt tolerance in genetically modified Eucalyptus species, and that the transformants have no apparent risks in terms of environmental biosafety. Thus, this study provides valuable information regarding the use of transgenic trees in situ.

Quantitative gene-gene and gene-environment mapping for leaf shape variation using tree-based models.

PubMed

Fu, Guifang; Dai, Xiaotian; Symanzik, Jürgen; Bushman, Shaun

2017-01-01

Leaf shape traits have long been a focus of many disciplines, but the complex genetic and environmental interactive mechanisms regulating leaf shape variation have not yet been investigated in detail. The question of the respective roles of genes and environment and how they interact to modulate leaf shape is a thorny evolutionary problem, and sophisticated methodology is needed to address it. In this study, we investigated a framework-level approach that inputs shape image photographs and genetic and environmental data, and then outputs the relative importance ranks of all variables after integrating shape feature extraction, dimension reduction, and tree-based statistical models. The power of the proposed framework was confirmed by simulation and a Populus szechuanica var. tibetica data set. This new methodology resulted in the detection of novel shape characteristics, and also confirmed some previous findings. The quantitative modeling of a combination of polygenetic, plastic, epistatic, and gene-environment interactive effects, as investigated in this study, will improve the discernment of quantitative leaf shape characteristics, and the methods are ready to be applied to other leaf morphology data sets. Unlike the majority of approaches in the quantitative leaf shape literature, this framework-level approach is data-driven, without assuming any pre-known shape attributes, landmarks, or model structures. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Development and evaluation of height diameter at breast models for native Chinese Metasequoia.

PubMed

Liu, Mu; Feng, Zhongke; Zhang, Zhixiang; Ma, Chenghui; Wang, Mingming; Lian, Bo-Ling; Sun, Renjie; Zhang, Li

2017-01-01

Accurate tree height and diameter at breast height (dbh) are important input variables for growth and yield models. A total of 5503 Chinese Metasequoia trees were used in this study. We studied 53 fitted models, of which 7 were linear models and 46 were non-linear models. These models were divided into two groups of single models and multivariate models according to the number of independent variables. The results show that the allometry equation of tree height which has diameter at breast height as independent variable can better reflect the change of tree height; in addition the prediction accuracy of the multivariate composite models is higher than that of the single variable models. Although tree age is not the most important variable in the study of the relationship between tree height and dbh, the consideration of tree age when choosing models and parameters in model selection can make the prediction of tree height more accurate. The amount of data is also an important parameter what can improve the reliability of models. Other variables such as tree height, main dbh and altitude, etc can also affect models. In this study, the method of developing the recommended models for predicting the tree height of native Metasequoias aged 50-485 years is statistically reliable and can be used for reference in predicting the growth and production of mature native Metasequoia.

Development and evaluation of height diameter at breast models for native Chinese Metasequoia

PubMed Central

Feng, Zhongke; Zhang, Zhixiang; Ma, Chenghui; Wang, Mingming; Lian, Bo-ling; Sun, Renjie; Zhang, Li

2017-01-01

Accurate tree height and diameter at breast height (dbh) are important input variables for growth and yield models. A total of 5503 Chinese Metasequoia trees were used in this study. We studied 53 fitted models, of which 7 were linear models and 46 were non-linear models. These models were divided into two groups of single models and multivariate models according to the number of independent variables. The results show that the allometry equation of tree height which has diameter at breast height as independent variable can better reflect the change of tree height; in addition the prediction accuracy of the multivariate composite models is higher than that of the single variable models. Although tree age is not the most important variable in the study of the relationship between tree height and dbh, the consideration of tree age when choosing models and parameters in model selection can make the prediction of tree height more accurate. The amount of data is also an important parameter what can improve the reliability of models. Other variables such as tree height, main dbh and altitude, etc can also affect models. In this study, the method of developing the recommended models for predicting the tree height of native Metasequoias aged 50–485 years is statistically reliable and can be used for reference in predicting the growth and production of mature native Metasequoia. PMID:28817600

Comparing species tree estimation with large anchored phylogenomic and small Sanger-sequenced molecular datasets: an empirical study on Malagasy pseudoxyrhophiine snakes.

PubMed

Ruane, Sara; Raxworthy, Christopher J; Lemmon, Alan R; Lemmon, Emily Moriarty; Burbrink, Frank T

2015-10-12

Using molecular data generated by high throughput next generation sequencing (NGS) platforms to infer phylogeny is becoming common as costs go down and the ability to capture loci from across the genome goes up. While there is a general consensus that greater numbers of independent loci should result in more robust phylogenetic estimates, few studies have compared phylogenies resulting from smaller datasets for commonly used genetic markers with the large datasets captured using NGS. Here, we determine how a 5-locus Sanger dataset compares with a 377-locus anchored genomics dataset for understanding the evolutionary history of the pseudoxyrhophiine snake radiation centered in Madagascar. The Pseudoxyrhophiinae comprise ~86 % of Madagascar's serpent diversity, yet they are poorly known with respect to ecology, behavior, and systematics. Using the 377-locus NGS dataset and the summary statistics species-tree methods STAR and MP-EST, we estimated a well-supported species tree that provides new insights concerning intergeneric relationships for the pseudoxyrhophiines. We also compared how these and other methods performed with respect to estimating tree topology using datasets with varying numbers of loci. Using Sanger sequencing and an anchored phylogenomics approach, we sequenced datasets comprised of 5 and 377 loci, respectively, for 23 pseudoxyrhophiine taxa. For each dataset, we estimated phylogenies using both gene-tree (concatenation) and species-tree (STAR, MP-EST) approaches. We determined the similarity of resulting tree topologies from the different datasets using Robinson-Foulds distances. In addition, we examined how subsets of these data performed compared to the complete Sanger and anchored datasets for phylogenetic accuracy using the same tree inference methodologies, as well as the program *BEAST to determine if a full coalescent model for species tree estimation could generate robust results with fewer loci compared to the summary statistics species tree approaches. We also examined the individual gene trees in comparison to the 377-locus species tree using the program MetaTree. Using the full anchored dataset under a variety of methods gave us the same, well-supported phylogeny for pseudoxyrhophiines. The African pseudoxyrhophiine Duberria is the sister taxon to the Malagasy pseudoxyrhophiines genera, providing evidence for a monophyletic radiation in Madagascar. In addition, within Madagascar, the two major clades inferred correspond largely to the aglyphous and opisthoglyphous genera, suggesting that feeding specializations associated with tooth venom delivery may have played a major role in the early diversification of this radiation. The comparison of tree topologies from the concatenated and species-tree methods using different datasets indicated the 5-locus dataset cannot beused to infer a correct phylogeny for the pseudoxyrhophiines under any method tested here and that summary statistics methods require 50 or more loci to consistently recover the species-tree inferred using the complete anchored dataset. However, as few as 15 loci may infer the correct topology when using the full coalescent species tree method *BEAST. MetaTree analyses of each gene tree from the Sanger and anchored datasets found that none of the individual gene trees matched the 377-locus species tree, and that no gene trees were identical with respect to topology. Our results suggest that ≥50 loci may be necessary to confidently infer phylogenies when using summaryspecies-tree methods, but that the coalescent-based method *BEAST consistently recovers the same topology using only 15 loci. These results reinforce that datasets with small numbers of markers may result in misleading topologies, and further, that the method of inference used to generate a phylogeny also has a major influence on the number of loci necessary to infer robust species trees.

Factors affecting the accuracy of genomic selection for growth and wood quality traits in an advanced-breeding population of black spruce (Picea mariana).

PubMed

Lenz, Patrick R N; Beaulieu, Jean; Mansfield, Shawn D; Clément, Sébastien; Desponts, Mireille; Bousquet, Jean

2017-04-28

Genomic selection (GS) uses information from genomic signatures consisting of thousands of genetic markers to predict complex traits. As such, GS represents a promising approach to accelerate tree breeding, which is especially relevant for the genetic improvement of boreal conifers characterized by long breeding cycles. In the present study, we tested GS in an advanced-breeding population of the boreal black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] BSP) for growth and wood quality traits, and concurrently examined factors affecting GS model accuracy. The study relied on 734 25-year-old trees belonging to 34 full-sib families derived from 27 parents and that were established on two contrasting sites. Genomic profiles were obtained from 4993 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) representative of as many gene loci distributed among the 12 linkage groups common to spruce. GS models were obtained for four growth and wood traits. Validation using independent sets of trees showed that GS model accuracy was high, related to trait heritability and equivalent to that of conventional pedigree-based models. In forward selection, gains per unit of time were three times higher with the GS approach than with conventional selection. In addition, models were also accurate across sites, indicating little genotype-by-environment interaction in the area investigated. Using information from half-sibs instead of full-sibs led to a significant reduction in model accuracy, indicating that the inclusion of relatedness in the model contributed to its higher accuracies. About 500 to 1000 markers were sufficient to obtain GS model accuracy almost equivalent to that obtained with all markers, whether they were well spread across the genome or from a single linkage group, further confirming the implication of relatedness and potential long-range linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the high accuracy estimates obtained. Only slightly higher model accuracy was obtained when using marker subsets that were identified to carry large effects, indicating a minor role for short-range LD in this population. This study supports the integration of GS models in advanced-generation tree breeding programs, given that high genomic prediction accuracy was obtained with a relatively small number of markers due to high relatedness and family structure in the population. In boreal spruce breeding programs and similar ones with long breeding cycles, much larger gain per unit of time can be obtained from genomic selection at an early age than by the conventional approach. GS thus appears highly profitable, especially in the context of forward selection in species which are amenable to mass vegetative propagation of selected stock, such as spruces.

Quantification and Visualization of Variation in Anatomical Trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amenta, Nina; Datar, Manasi; Dirksen, Asger

This paper presents two approaches to quantifying and visualizing variation in datasets of trees. The first approach localizes subtrees in which significant population differences are found through hypothesis testing and sparse classifiers on subtree features. The second approach visualizes the global metric structure of datasets through low-distortion embedding into hyperbolic planes in the style of multidimensional scaling. A case study is made on a dataset of airway trees in relation to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.