Detecting seasonal and cyclical trends in agricultural runoff water quality-hypothesis tests and block bootstrap power analysis.

PubMed

Uddameri, Venkatesh; Singaraju, Sreeram; Hernandez, E Annette

2018-02-21

Seasonal and cyclic trends in nutrient concentrations at four agricultural drainage ditches were assessed using a dataset generated from a multivariate, multiscale, multiyear water quality monitoring effort in the agriculturally dominant Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) River Watershed in South Texas. An innovative bootstrap sampling-based power analysis procedure was developed to evaluate the ability of Mann-Whitney and Noether tests to discern trends and to guide future monitoring efforts. The Mann-Whitney U test was able to detect significant changes between summer and winter nutrient concentrations at sites with lower depths and unimpeded flows. Pollutant dilution, non-agricultural loadings, and in-channel flow structures (weirs) masked the effects of seasonality. The detection of cyclical trends using the Noether test was highest in the presence of vegetation mainly for total phosphorus and oxidized nitrogen (nitrite + nitrate) compared to dissolved phosphorus and reduced nitrogen (total Kjeldahl nitrogen-TKN). Prospective power analysis indicated that while increased monitoring can lead to higher statistical power, the effect size (i.e., the total number of trend sequences within a time-series) had a greater influence on the Noether test. Both Mann-Whitney and Noether tests provide complementary information on seasonal and cyclic behavior of pollutant concentrations and are affected by different processes. The results from these statistical tests when evaluated in the context of flow, vegetation, and in-channel hydraulic alterations can help guide future data collection and monitoring efforts. The study highlights the need for long-term monitoring of agricultural drainage ditches to properly discern seasonal and cyclical trends.

Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

2015-05-01

The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

Treesearch

Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

2010-01-01

We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

Self-Monitoring Assessments for Educational Accountability Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koretz, Daniel; Beguin, Anton

2010-01-01

Test-based accountability is now the cornerstone of U.S. education policy, and it is becoming more important in many other nations as well. Educators sometimes respond to test-based accountability in ways that produce score inflation. In the past, score inflation has usually been evaluated by comparing trends in scores on a high-stakes test to…

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

PubMed

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets

PubMed Central

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction. PMID:29136004

A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.

2014-03-01

Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of "no trend" and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

Towards homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration for structural health monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolna, Konrad; Dao, Phong B.; Staszewski, Wieslaw J.; Barszcz, Tomasz

2016-06-01

The paper presents the homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration. The method leads to stable variances in nonlinear cointegration residuals. The adapted Breusch-Pagan test procedure is developed to test for the presence of heteroscedasticity (or homoscedasticity) in the cointegration residuals obtained from the nonlinear cointegration analysis. Three different time series - i.e. one with a nonlinear quadratic deterministic trend, simulated vibration data and experimental wind turbine data - are used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. The proposed approach can be used for effective removal of nonlinear trends from various types of data and for reliable structural damage detection based on data that are corrupted by environmental and/or operational nonlinear trends.

Modeling seasonal variation of hip fracture in Montreal, Canada.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2012-04-01

The investigation of the association of the climate variables with hip fracture incidences is important in social health issues. This study examined and modeled the seasonal variation of monthly population based hip fracture rate (HFr) time series. The seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to model monthly HFr incidences time series of female and male patients of the ages 40-74 and 75+ of Montreal, Québec province, Canada, in the period of 1993-2004. The correlation coefficients between meteorological variables such as temperature, snow depth, rainfall depth and day length and HFr are significant. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for trend assessment and the nonparametric Levene's test and Wilcoxon's test for checking the difference of HFr before and after change point are also used. The seasonality in HFr indicated sharp difference between winter and summer time. The trend assessment showed decreasing trends in HFr of female and male groups. The nonparametric test also indicated a significant change of the mean HFr. A seasonal ARIMA model was applied for HFr time series without trend and a time trend ARIMA model (TT-ARIMA) was developed and fitted to HFr time series with a significant trend. The multi criteria evaluation showed the adequacy of SARIMA and TT-ARIMA models for modeling seasonal hip fracture time series with and without significant trend. In the time series analysis of HFr of the Montreal region, the effects of the seasonal variation of climate variables on hip fracture are clear. The Seasonal ARIMA model is useful for modeling HFr time series without trend. However, for time series with significant trend, the TT-ARIMA model should be applied for modeling HFr time series. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a.s.l.). Higher order autoregressive processes are important in the isotope time series analysis. Our results show that the widely used trend analysis with only the first order autocorrelation adjustment may not adequately take account of the high order autocorrelated processes in the stable isotope series. The investigated time series analysis method including higher autocorrelation and external climate variable adjustments is shown to be a better alternative.

Structural Analysis of a Tablet PC Based Language Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magal Royo, Teresa; Garcia Laborda, Jesus; Gimenez Lopez, Jose Luis; Otero de Juan, Nuria

2015-01-01

Ubiquitous language learning and testing has become a new challenging trend. Budget constraints in Europe and the rest of the world have made this way of delivery very attractive for materials designers as well as language testing organizations. Ubiquitous testing has a very especial interest in low and medium stakes language testing in which…

Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Alex

2017-04-01

Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a univariate technique, and cannot incorporate information from additional covariates, for example ENSO state or physiographic controls on extreme rainfall within a region. Here, the univariate MQR model is extended to allow the use of multiple covariates. Multivariate monotone quantile regression (MMQR) is based on a single hidden-layer feedforward network with the quantile regression error function and partial monotonicity constraints. The MMQR model is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulations and the estimation and visualization of regional trends in moderate rainfall extremes based on homogenized sub-daily precipitation data at stations in Canada.

Walk a Mile in My Shoes: Stakeholder Accounts of Testing Experience with a Computer-Administered Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Janna; Cheng, Liying

2015-01-01

In keeping with the trend to elicit multiple stakeholder responses to operational tests as part of test validation, this exploratory mixed methods study examines test-taker accounts of an Internet-based (i.e., computer-administered) test in the high-stakes context of proficiency testing for university admission. In 2013, as language testing…

Groundwater level and nitrate concentration trends on Mountain Home Air Force Base, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Marshall L.

2014-01-01

Mountain Home Air Force Base in southwestern Idaho draws most of its drinking water from the regional aquifer. The base is located within the State of Idaho's Mountain Home Groundwater Management Area and is adjacent to the State's Cinder Cone Butte Critical Groundwater Area. Both areas were established by the Idaho Department of Water Resources in the early 1980s because of declining water levels in the regional aquifer. The base also is listed by the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality as a nitrate priority area. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, began monitoring wells on the base in 1985, and currently monitors 25 wells for water levels and 17 wells for water quality, primarily nutrients. This report provides a summary of water-level and nitrate concentration data collected primarily between 2001 and 2013 and examines trends in those data. A Regional Kendall Test was run to combine results from all wells to determine an overall regional trend in water level. Groundwater levels declined at an average rate of about 1.08 feet per year. Nitrate concentration trends show that 3 wells (18 percent) are increasing in nitrate concentration trend, 3 wells (18 percent) show a decreasing nitrate concentration trend, and 11 wells (64 percent) show no nitrate concentration trend. Six wells (35 percent) currently exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant limit of 10 milligrams per liter for nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate, measured as nitrogen).

Long-term response of surface water acid neutralizing capacity in a central Appalachian (USA) river basin to declining acid deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Kathleen M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Garlitz, James E.; U'Ren, Sarah H.

2016-12-01

Long-term changes in acid-base chemistry resulting from declining regional acid deposition were examined using data from repeating synoptic surveys conducted within the 275 km2 Upper Savage River Watershed (USRW) in western Maryland (USA); a randomly-selected set of 40 stream reaches was sampled 36 times between 1999 and 2014 to: (1) repeatedly characterize the acid-base status of the entire river basin; (2) determine whether an extensive network of streams of varying order has shown signs of recovery in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC); and (3) understand the key factors controlling the rate of ANC recovery across the river network. Several non-parametric analyses of trends (i.e., Mann Kendall Trend: MKT tests; and Regional Kendall Trend: RKT) in streamwater acid-base chemistry suggest that USRW has significantly responded to declining acid deposition during the study period; the two most robust, statistically significant trends were decreasing surface water SO42- (∼1.5 μeq L-1 yr-1) and NO3- (∼1 μeq L-1 yr-1) concentrations-consistent with observed downward trends in regional wet S and N deposition. Basin-wide decreasing trends in K+, Mg2+, and Ca2+ were also observed, while Na+ concentrations increased. Significant ANC recovery was observed in 10-20% of USRW stream reaches (depending on the p level used), but the magnitude of the trend relative to natural variability was apparently insufficient to allow detection of a basin-wide ANC trend using the RKT test. Watershed factors, such as forest disturbances and increased application of road deicing salts, appeared to contribute to substantial variability in concentrations of NO3- and Na+ in streams across the basin, but these factors did not affect our overall interpretation of the results as a systematic recovery of USRW from regional acidification. Methodologically, RKT appears to be a robust method for identifying basin-wide trends using synoptic data, but MKT results for individual systems should be examined closely (e.g., to identify trends for specific subpopulations).

Auditing for Score Inflation Using Self-Monitoring Assessments: Findings from Three Pilot Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koretz, Daniel; Jennings, Jennifer L.; Ng, Hui Leng; Yu, Carol; Braslow, David; Langi, Meredith

2016-01-01

Test-based accountability often produces score inflation. Most studies have evaluated inflation by comparing trends on a high-stakes test and a lower stakes audit test. However, Koretz and Beguin (2010) noted weaknesses of audit tests and suggested self-monitoring assessments (SMAs), which incorporate audit items into high-stakes tests. This…

Continuing challenges for computer-based neuropsychological tests.

PubMed

Letz, Richard

2003-08-01

A number of issues critical to the development of computer-based neuropsychological testing systems that remain continuing challenges to their widespread use in occupational and environmental health are reviewed. Several computer-based neuropsychological testing systems have been developed over the last 20 years, and they have contributed substantially to the study of neurologic effects of a number of environmental exposures. However, many are no longer supported and do not run on contemporary personal computer operating systems. Issues that are continuing challenges for development of computer-based neuropsychological tests in environmental and occupational health are discussed: (1) some current technological trends that generally make test development more difficult; (2) lack of availability of usable speech recognition of the type required for computer-based testing systems; (3) implementing computer-based procedures and tasks that are improvements over, not just adaptations of, their manually-administered predecessors; (4) implementing tests of a wider range of memory functions than the limited range now available; (5) paying more attention to motivational influences that affect the reliability and validity of computer-based measurements; and (6) increasing the usability of and audience for computer-based systems. Partial solutions to some of these challenges are offered. The challenges posed by current technological trends are substantial and generally beyond the control of testing system developers. Widespread acceptance of the "tablet PC" and implementation of accurate small vocabulary, discrete, speaker-independent speech recognition would enable revolutionary improvements to computer-based testing systems, particularly for testing memory functions not covered in existing systems. Dynamic, adaptive procedures, particularly ones based on item-response theory (IRT) and computerized-adaptive testing (CAT) methods, will be implemented in new tests that will be more efficient, reliable, and valid than existing test procedures. These additional developments, along with implementation of innovative reporting formats, are necessary for more widespread acceptance of the testing systems.

Trends in TIMSS Responses over Time: Evidence of Global Forces in Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutkowski, Leslie; Rutkowski, David

2009-01-01

In this article, the influence of global processes on international mathematics curricula as evidenced by item responses to 3 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) administrations (1995, 1999, and 2003) is considered. Based on Dale's (2000) argument, we set out to test 2 plausible impacts of global processes on education.…

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

2017-10-01

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

Clinical evaluation of a novel population-based regression analysis for detecting glaucomatous visual field progression.

PubMed

Kovalska, M P; Bürki, E; Schoetzau, A; Orguel, S F; Orguel, S; Grieshaber, M C

2011-04-01

The distinction of real progression from test variability in visual field (VF) series may be based on clinical judgment, on trend analysis based on follow-up of test parameters over time, or on identification of a significant change related to the mean of baseline exams (event analysis). The aim of this study was to compare a new population-based method (Octopus field analysis, OFA) with classic regression analyses and clinical judgment for detecting glaucomatous VF changes. 240 VF series of 240 patients with at least 9 consecutive examinations available were included into this study. They were independently classified by two experienced investigators. The results of such a classification served as a reference for comparison for the following statistical tests: (a) t-test global, (b) r-test global, (c) regression analysis of 10 VF clusters and (d) point-wise linear regression analysis. 32.5 % of the VF series were classified as progressive by the investigators. The sensitivity and specificity were 89.7 % and 92.0 % for r-test, and 73.1 % and 93.8 % for the t-test, respectively. In the point-wise linear regression analysis, the specificity was comparable (89.5 % versus 92 %), but the sensitivity was clearly lower than in the r-test (22.4 % versus 89.7 %) at a significance level of p = 0.01. A regression analysis for the 10 VF clusters showed a markedly higher sensitivity for the r-test (37.7 %) than the t-test (14.1 %) at a similar specificity (88.3 % versus 93.8 %) for a significant trend (p = 0.005). In regard to the cluster distribution, the paracentral clusters and the superior nasal hemifield progressed most frequently. The population-based regression analysis seems to be superior to the trend analysis in detecting VF progression in glaucoma, and may eliminate the drawbacks of the event analysis. Further, it may assist the clinician in the evaluation of VF series and may allow better visualization of the correlation between function and structure owing to VF clusters. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Methodology for the Assessment of 3D Conduction Effects in an Aerothermal Wind Tunnel Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Anthony Brandon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews a method for the assessment of three-dimensional conduction effects during test in a Aerothermal Wind Tunnel. The test objectives were to duplicate and extend tests that were performed during the 1960's on thermal conduction on proturberance on a flat plate. Slides review the 1D versus 3D conduction data reduction error, the analysis process, CFD-based analysis, loose coupling method that simulates a wind tunnel test run, verification of the CFD solution, Grid convergence, Mach number trend, size trends, and a Sumary of the CFD conduction analysis. Other slides show comparisons to pretest CFD at Mach 1.5 and 2.16 and the geometries of the models and grids.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-02-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. A validation of the derived trends for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates, allowed an assessment of the uncertainty of the modelled trends. The models agreed on the predominant continental scale patterns of trends, but disagreed on magnitudes and even on trend directions at the transition between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow, were more variable and should be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of the trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of Eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail.

Suicidal ideation and Attempts in North American School-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Saewyc, Elizabeth M.; Skay, Carol L.; Hynds, Patricia; Pettingell, Sandra; Bearinger, Linda H.; Resnick, Michael D.; Reis, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

This study explored the prevalence, disparity, and cohort trends in suicidality among bisexual teens vs. heterosexual and gay/lesbian peers in 9 population-based high school surveys in Canada and the U.S. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to calculate age-adjusted odds ratios separately by gender; 95% confidence intervals tested cohort trends where surveys were repeated over multiple years. Results showed remarkable consistency: bisexual youth reported higher odds of recent suicidal ideation and attempts vs. heterosexual peers, with increasing odds in most surveys over the past decade. Results compared to gay and lesbian peers were mixed, with varying gender differences in prevalence and disparity trends in the different regions. PMID:19835039

Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

2017-02-01

The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P < 0.001). MPI rates declined from 21.1/1000 adult population to 19.5/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.3%; P < 0.001). Although utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated. Methods Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests. Results HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value = 0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines. Conclusions In Manicaland, Zimbabwe, the 2005 UNGASS target to reduce HIV prevalence by 25% was achieved. However, most prevention gains occurred before 2003. ANC surveillance trends overall were an adequate indicator of trends in the population, although lags were observed. Behaviour data and socio-demographic characteristics of participants are needed to interpret ANC trends. PMID:21609449

Results of a pilot study in the U.S. and Vietnam to assess the utility and acceptability of a multi-level pregnancy test (MLPT) for home monitoring of hCG trends after assisted reproduction.

PubMed

Shochet, Tara; Comstock, Ioanna A; Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Nhu; Westphal, Lynn M; Sheldon, Wendy R; Loc, Ly Thai; Blum, Jennifer; Winikoff, Beverly; Blumenthal, Paul D

2017-08-22

To evaluate the utility and acceptability of using multi-level pregnancy tests (MLPTs) at home to monitor hCG trends following assisted reproductive technology (ART). One hundred and four women presenting for ART at either Stanford Medicine Fertility and Reproductive Health Clinic (Stanford, CA) or Hung Vuong Hospital (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) participated in this pilot study. Women were asked to perform the MLPT at home, primarily on days when they were also scheduled to receive standard clinic-based serum hCG testing. These tests were administered up to 6 times over the 6-week period following embryo transfer or intrauterine insemination (IUI). Concordance of serial hCG readings for each time point was assessed by comparing trends in urine MLPT results with trends in serum hCG. Stable or increasing hCG level was interpreted as an indication of a progressing pregnancy, while a declining hCG was interpreted as a lack of established or progressing pregnancy. At study end, all participants were asked about the acceptability and convenience of using the MLPT at home for monitoring hCG trends following ART. Data from both urine and serum testing are available for 156 of 179 clinic visits (87.2%). There was high concordance of serial trend results between the two types of tests: among the 156 sets of serum and urine hCG data points, 150 (96.2%) showed a matching trend in hCG pattern and 6 (3.8%) resulted in a discordant trend. Seventy-three percent of women reported being satisfied or very satisfied with using the MLPTs at home. Almost all (96.6%) said that the MLPT was easy or very easy to use. The MLPT offers women and health care providers a client-friendly diagnostic tool to detect very early pregnancy and monitor its progress. This study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01846403 (May 1, 2013), and NCT01919502 (August 5, 2013).

Medicare Cancer Screening in the Context of Clinical Guidelines: 2000 to 2012.

PubMed

Maroongroge, Sean; Yu, James B

2018-04-01

Cancer screening is a ubiquitous and controversial public health issue, particularly in the elderly population. Despite extensive evidence-based guidelines for screening, it is unclear how cancer screening has changed in the Medicare population over time. We characterize trends in cancer screening for the most common cancer types in the Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) program in the context of conflicting guidelines from 2000 to 2012. We performed a descriptive analysis of retrospective claims data from the Medicare FFS program based on billing codes. Our data include all claims for Medicare part B beneficiaries who received breast, colorectal (CRC), or prostate cancer screening from 2000 to 2012 based on billing codes. We utilize a Monte Carlo permutation method to detect changes in screening trends. In total, 231,416,732 screening tests were analyzed from 2000 to 2012, representing an average of 436.8 tests per 1000 beneficiaries per year. Mammography rates declined 7.4%, with digital mammography extensively replacing film. CRC cancer screening rates declined overall. As a percentage of all CRC screening tests, colonoscopy grew from 32% to 71%. Prostate screening rates increased 16% from 2000 to 2007, and then declined to 7% less than its 2000 rate by 2012. Both the aggressiveness of screening guidelines and screening rates for the Medicare FFS population peaked and then declined from 2000 to 2012. However, guideline publications did not consistently precede utilization trend shifts. Technology adoption, practical and financial concerns, and patient preferences may have also contributed to the observed trends. Further research should be performed on the impact of multiple, conflicting guidelines in cancer screening.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended on the period examined. Recent trends in Southwest precipitation are directionally consistent with anthropogenic climate change.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

A data base and analysis program for shuttle main engine dynamic pressure measurements. Appendix F: Data base plots for SSME tests 750-120 through 750-200

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffin, T.

1986-01-01

A dynamic pressure data base and data base management system developed to characterize the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) dynamic pressure environment is presented. The data base represents dynamic pressure measurements obtained during single engine hot firing tests of the SSME. Software is provided to permit statistical evaluation of selected measurements under specified operating conditions. An interpolation scheme is also included to estimate spectral trends with SSME power level.

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1971–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickman, R. Edward; Hirsch, Robert M.

2017-02-27

In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the Delaware River Basin Commission, trend tests were conducted on selected water-quality characteristics measured at stations on streams in New Jersey during selected periods over water years 1971‒2011. Tests were conducted on 3 nutrients (total nitrogen, filtered nitrate plus nitrite, and total phosphorus) at 28 water-quality stations. At 4 of these stations, tests were also conducted on 3 measures of major ions (specific conductance, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids).Two methods were used to identify trends—Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models and seasonal rank-sum tests. For this report, the use of WRTDS models included the use of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT). WRTDS models identified trends in flow-normalized annual concentrations and flow-normalized annual fluxes over water years 1980‒2011 and 2000‒11 for each nutrient, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids. WRTDS models were developed for each nutrient at the 20 or 21 stations at which streamflow was measured or estimated. Trends in nutrient concentration were reported for these stations; trends in nutrient fluxes were reported only for 15–17 of these stations.The results of WRTDS models for water years 1980‒2011 identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus than upward trends. For total nitrogen, there were downward trends at 9 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For total phosphorus, there were downward trends at 8 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For filtered nitrate plus nitrite, there were downward trends at 6 stations and upward trends at 6 stations. The result of the trend test in flux for a selected nutrient at a selected station (downward trend, no trend, or upward trend) usually matched the trend result in concentration.Seasonal rank-sum tests, the second method used, identified step trends in water-quality measured in different decades—1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Tests were conducted on all nutrients at 28 stations and on all measures of major ions at the 4 selected stations. Results of seasonal rank-sum tests between the 1980s and the 2000s identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total nitrogen (14) than stations with upward trends (2) and more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total phosphorus (18) than stations with upward trends (1).A combined dataset of trend results for concentrations over water years 1980‒2011 was created from the results of the two tests for the period. Results of WRTDS models were included in this combined dataset, if available. Otherwise, the results of the seasonal rank-sum tests between water-quality characteristics measured in the 1980s and 2000s were included.Trend results over water years 1980‒2011 in the combined dataset show that few of the 28 stations had upward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus. There were only 2 stations with upward trends in total nitrogen concentration and 1 station with an upward trend in total phosphorus concentration. Results for filtered nitrate plus nitrite show about the same number of stations with upward trends (9) as stations with downward trends (7). Results for all measures of major ions show upward trends at the four stations tested.

Incidence and survival time trends for Spanish children and adolescents with leukaemia from 1983 to 2007.

PubMed

Marcos-Gragera, R; Galceran, J; Martos, C; de Munain, A L; Vicente-Raneda, M; Navarro, C; Quirós-Garcia, J R; Sánchez, M-J; Ardanaz, E; Ramos, M; Mateos, A; Salmerón, D; Felipe, S; Peris-Bonet, R

2017-03-01

We have analysed incidence and survival trends of children and adolescents with leukaemia registered in Spanish population-based cancer registries during the period 1983-2007. Childhood and adolescent leukaemia cases were drawn from the 11 Spanish population-based cancer registries. For survival, registries with data for the period 1991-2005 and follow-up until 31-12-2010 were included. Overall incidence trends were evaluated using joinpoint analysis. Observed survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier, and trends were tested using the log-rank test. Based on 2606 cases (2274 children and 332 adolescents), the overall age-adjusted incidence rate (ASRw) of leukaemia was 47.9 cases per million child-years in children and 23.8 in adolescents. The ASRw of leukaemia increased with an annual percentage change of 9.6 % (95 % CI: 2.2-17.6) until 1990 followed by a stabilisation of rates. In adolescents, incidence did not increase. Five-year survival increased from 66 % in 1991-1995 to 76 % in 2001-2005. By age, survival was dramatically lower in infants (0) and adolescents (15-19) than in the other age groups and no improvement was observed. In both children and adolescents, differences in 5-year survival rates among major subgroups of leukaemias were significant. The increasing incidence trends observed in childhood leukaemias during the study period were confined to the beginning of the period. Remarkable improvements in survival have been observed in Spanish children with leukaemias. However, this improvement was not observed in infants and adolescents.

THE SAN PEDRO RIVER SPATIAL DATA ARCHIVE, A DATABASE BROWSER FOR COMMUNITY-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

EPA Science Inventory

It is currently possible to measure landscape change over large areas and determine trends in ecological and hydrological condition using advanced space-based technologies accompanied by geospatial data. Specifically, this process is being tested in a community-based watershed in...

THE SAN PEDRO SPATIAL DATA ARCHIVE, A DATABASE BROWSER FOR COMMUNITY-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

EPA Science Inventory

It is currently possible to measure landscape change over large areas and determine trends in ecological and hydrological condition using advanced space-based technologies accompanied by geospatial data. Specifically, this process is being tested in a community-based watershed in...

Computer program for the Kendall family of trend tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helsel, Dennis R.; Mueller, David K.; Slack, James R.

2006-01-01

The Seasonal Kendall (SK) test for trend was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and has become the most frequently used test for trend in the environmental sciences. Recently the test was modified to form the Regional Kendall (RK) test for trend. In this form, trends at numerous locations within a region are tested to determine whether the direction of trend is consistent across the entire region. Computer code developed at the USGS in the 1980s to perform the SK test is no longer widely available. Other versions written by other scientists may or may not be easily available, and may require commercial software in order to be run. These other versions do not explicitly compute the RK test. Therefore, the original code for computing the SK test has been repackaged into a program that runs under the Windows operating system. This program may be used to verify that other implementations of the test give the same results as the original. The program also provides a means for computing the RK test and the simpler Mann-Kendall test for trend.

Papers Based Electrochemical Biosensors: From Test Strips to Paper-Based Microfluidics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Bingwen; Du, Dan; Hua, Xin

2014-05-08

Papers based biosensors such as lateral flow test strips and paper-based microfluidic devices (or paperfluidics) are inexpensive, rapid, flexible, and easy-to-use analytical tools. An apparent trend in their detection is to interpret sensing results from qualitative assessment to quantitative determination. Electrochemical detection plays an important role in quantification. This review focuses on electrochemical (EC) detection enabled biosensors. The first part provides detailed examples in paper test strips. The second part gives an overview of paperfluidics engaging EC detections. The outlook and recommendation of future directions of EC enabled biosensors are discussed in the end.

TRENDS: The aeronautical post-test database management system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bjorkman, W. S.; Bondi, M. J.

1990-01-01

TRENDS, an engineering-test database operating system developed by NASA to support rotorcraft flight tests, is described. Capabilities and characteristics of the system are presented, with examples of its use in recalling and analyzing rotorcraft flight-test data from a TRENDS database. The importance of system user-friendliness in gaining users' acceptance is stressed, as is the importance of integrating supporting narrative data with numerical data in engineering-test databases. Considerations relevant to the creation and maintenance of flight-test database are discussed and TRENDS' solutions to database management problems are described. Requirements, constraints, and other considerations which led to the system's configuration are discussed and some of the lessons learned during TRENDS' development are presented. Potential applications of TRENDS to a wide range of aeronautical and other engineering tests are identified.

An innovative procedure to assess multi-scale temporal trends in groundwater quality: Example of the nitrate in the Seine-Normandy basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Benjamin; Baran, Nicole; Bourgine, Bernard

2015-03-01

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) asks Member States to identify trends in contaminant concentrations in groundwater and to take measures to reach a good chemical status by 2015. In this study, carried out in a large hydrological basin (95,300 km2), an innovative procedure is described for the assessment of recent trends in groundwater nitrate concentrations both at sampling point and regional scales. Temporal variograms of piezometric and nitrate concentration time series are automatically calculated and fitted in order to classify groundwater according to their temporal pattern. These results are then coupled with aquifer lithology to map spatial units within which the modes of diffuse transport of contaminants towards groundwater are assumed to be the same at all points. These spatial units are suitable for evaluating regional trends. The stability over time of the time series is tested based on the cumulative sum principle, to determine the time period during which the trend should be sought. The Mann-Kendall and Regional-Kendall nonparametric tests for monotonic trends, coupled with the Sen-slope test, are applied to the periods following the point breaks thus determined at both the sampling point or regional scales. This novel procedure is robust and enables rapid processing of large databases of raw data. It would therefore be useful for managing groundwater quality in compliance with the aims of the WFD.

Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Manlove, Kezia; Hollimon, Cynthia

2012-01-01

An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

Recent Research Trends in Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, William M.; Sundberg, Norman D.

1976-01-01

As measured by references in Buros' Mental Measurement Yearbooks, recent trends in test research are measured. The 24 tests with the greatest number of publications are identified, and growth trends of 5 major tests are shown. (Author/DEP)

Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

2016-08-01

Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

Learning by Experience in a Standardized Testing Culture: Investigation of a Middle School Experiential Learning Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scogin, Stephen C.; Kruger, Christopher J.; Jekkals, Regan E.; Steinfeldt, Chelsea

2017-01-01

Standardized testing pressure sometimes discourages schools from broadly implementing experiential learning opportunities. However, some K-12 schools are challenging the trend with greater commitment to learning by experience. STREAM (science, technology, reading, engineering, arts, mathematics) school is a project-based program providing students…

Testing-adjusted chlamydia notification trends in New South Wales, Australia, 2000 to 2010.

PubMed

Cretikos, Michelle; Mayne, Darren; Reynolds, Roderick; Spokes, Paula; Madeddu, Daniel

2014-01-01

Between 2005 and 2010, Australian notification rates for chlamydia infection increased by 64% from 203 to 333 per 100 000 population. Interpreting this trend is difficult without examining rates and local patterns of testing. We examined the effect of adjusting for local testing rates on chlamydia notification trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia from 2000 to 2010. We used testing data for NSW residents for Medicare Benefits Schedule items for chlamydia from 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2005 and 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2010. This data set excluded testing by public sector laboratories. We also obtained laboratory-confirmed genital chlamydia notifications in NSW residents for 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2010 and excluded notifications from public laboratories. We used negative binomial regression to assess trends in chlamydia notification rates by age and sex after adjusting for local government area (LGA)-level Medicare-funded testing rates, socioeconomic disadvantage, remoteness and Medicare provider density. Testing-adjusted rates of chlamydia notifications declined by 5.2% per annum (rate ratio [RR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.93-0.96) for women overall, and 2.3% (RR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-1.00) and 5.0% per annum (RR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.93-0.98) for men in LGAs with moderate and high densities of Medicare providers, respectively. Notification rates remained stable for men in low Medicare provider density LGAs (RR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.96-1.07). It is likely that increased testing for chlamydia has driven increases in chlamydia notification in NSW over the last decade. Notification data provide no evidence for a general increase in the prevalence of chlamydia in the NSW community for this period. Notification-based chlamydia surveillance should be routinely adjusted for local testing rates.

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

Regional Kendall test for trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helsel, D.R.; Frans, L.M.

2006-01-01

Trends in environmental variables are often investigated within a study region at more than one site. At each site, a trend analysis determines whether a trend has occurred. Yet often also of interest is whether a consistent trend is evident throughout the entire region. This paper adapts the Seasonal Kendall trend test to determine whether a consistent regional trend occurs in environmental variables.

Summary and trend analysis of water-quality data for the Oakes Test Area, southeastern North Dakota, 1984-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.

2007-01-01

The Oakes Test Area is operated and maintained by the Garrison Diversion Conservancy District, under a cooperative agreement with the Bureau of Reclamation, to evaluate the effectiveness and environmental consequences of irrigation. As part of the evaluation, the Bureau of Reclamation collected water-quality samples from seven sites on the James River and the Oakes Test Area. The data were summarized and examined for trends in concentration. A nonparametric statistical test was used to test whether each concentration was increasing or decreasing with time for selected physical properties and constituents, and a trend slope was estimated for each constituent at each site. Trends were examined for two time periods, 1988-2004 and 1994-2004. Results varied by site and by constituent. All sites and all constituents tested had at least one statistically significant trend in the period 1988-2004. Sulfate, total dissolved solids, nitrate, and orthophosphate have significant positive trends at multiple sites with no significant negative trend at any site. Alkalinity and arsenic have single significant positive trends. Hardness, calcium, magnesium, sodium, sodium-adsorption ratio, potassium, and chloride have both significant positive and negative trends. Ammonia has a single significant negative trend. Fewer significant trends were identified in 1994-2004, and all but one were positive. The contribution to the James River from Oakes Test Area drainage appears to have little effect on water quality in the James River.

Evaluating collective significance of climatic trends: A comparison of methods on synthetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huth, Radan; Dubrovský, Martin

2017-04-01

The common approach to determine whether climatic trends are significantly different from zero is to conduct individual (local) tests at each single site (station or gridpoint). Whether the number of sites where the trends are significantly non-zero can or cannot occur by random, is almost never evaluated in trend studies. That is, collective (global) significance of trends is ignored. We compare three approaches to evaluating collective statistical significance of trends at a network of sites, using the following statistics: (i) the number of successful local tests (a successful test means here a test in which the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected); this is a standard way of assessing collective significance in various applications in atmospheric sciences; (ii) the smallest p-value among the local tests (Walker test); and (iii) the counts of positive and negative trends regardless of their magnitudes and local significance. The third approach is a new procedure that we propose; the rationale behind it is that it is reasonable to assume that the prevalence of one sign of trends at individual sites is indicative of a high confidence in the trend not being zero, regardless of the (in)significance of individual local trends. A potentially large amount of information contained in trends that are not locally significant, which are typically deemed irrelevant and neglected, is thus not lost and is retained in the analysis. In this contribution we examine the feasibility of the proposed way of significance testing on synthetic data, produced by a multi-site stochastic generator, and compare it with the two other ways of assessing collective significance, which are well established now. The synthetic dataset, mimicking annual mean temperature on an array of stations (or gridpoints), is constructed assuming a given statistical structure characterized by (i) spatial separation (density of the station network), (ii) local variance, (iii) temporal and spatial autocorrelations, and (iv) the trend magnitude. The probabilistic distributions of the three test statistics (null distributions) and critical values of the tests are determined from multiple realizations of the synthetic dataset, in which no trend is imposed at each site (that is, any trend is a result of random fluctuations only). The procedure is then evaluated by determining the type II error (the probability of a false detection of a trend) in the presence of a trend with a known magnitude, for which the synthetic dataset with an imposed spatially uniform non-zero trend is used. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for various combinations of the trend magnitude and spatial autocorrelation.

Comparing Trend and Gap Statistics across Tests: Distributional Change Using Ordinal Methods and Bayesian Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denbleyker, John Nickolas

2012-01-01

The shortcomings of the proportion above cut (PAC) statistic used so prominently in the educational landscape renders it a very problematic measure for making correct inferences with student test data. The limitations of PAC-based statistics are more pronounced with cross-test comparisons due to their dependency on cut-score locations. A better…

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William M.

1988-01-01

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

Design and validation of a methodology using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, to identify secondary conditions in people with disabilities.

PubMed

Chan, Leighton; Shumway-Cook, Anne; Yorkston, Kathryn M; Ciol, Marcia A; Dudgeon, Brian J; Hoffman, Jeanne M

2005-05-01

To design and validate a methodology that identifies secondary conditions using International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision (ICD-9) codes. Secondary conditions were identified through a literature search and a survey of Washington State physiatrists. These conditions were translated into ICD-9 codes and this list was then validated against a national sample of Medicare survey respondents with differing levels of mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) disability. National survey. Participants (N=9731) in the 1999 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey with no, mild, moderate, and severe mobility and ADL disability. Not applicable. Percentage of survey respondents with a secondary condition. The secondary conditions were grouped into 4 categories: medical, psychosocial, musculoskeletal, and dysphagia related (problems associated with difficulty in swallowing). Our literature search and survey of 26 physiatrists identified 64 secondary conditions, including depression, decubitus ulcers, and deconditioning. Overall, 70.4% of all survey respondents were treated for a secondary condition. We found a significant relation between increasing mobility as well as ADL disability and increasing numbers of secondary conditions (chi 2 test for trend, P <.001). This relation existed for all categories of secondary conditions: medical (chi 2 test for trend, P <.001), psychosocial (chi 2 test for trend, P <.001), musculoskeletal (chi 2 test for trend, P <.001), and dysphagia related (chi 2 test for trend, P <.001). We created a valid ICD-9-based methodology that identified secondary conditions in Medicare survey respondents and discriminated between people with different degrees of disability. This methodology will be useful for health services researchers who study the frequency and impact of secondary conditions.

Age trend of the male to female sex ratio in surgical gastric cancer patients at a single institution.

PubMed

Yu, Junxiu; He, Yongjun; Guo, Zhen

2014-08-21

In previous reports concerning the association between sex disparity and age, gastric cancer (GC) patients were simply divided into younger and older groups by age. We analyzed the age trend of the male to female sex ratio (MFSR) in GC based on patient sequential age in order to observe the changing process of MFSR with age. One thousand seven hundred fifty-one surgical gastric adenocarcinoma patients aged 26 to 85 years were investigated between January 1996 and December 2010. The patients were grouped by age intervals of 5 years. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to determine how the MFSR changed with age. The median age of the 1,751 patients with GC was 60 years (26 to 85 years). There were 1,334 male and 417 female patients (MFSR was 3.20). Cochran-Armitage trend test analysis showed that total MFSR increased significantly with age (Z = 5.964, P < 0.0001). Further studies on age groups of 26 to 60 years and 61 to 85 years were conducted. The trend test showed that MFSR increased significantly with age from 26 to 60 years (Z = 7.433, P < 0.0001). However, MFSR did not increase in ages 61 to 85 years (Z = -0.607, P = 0.544). MFSR in GC presented an increasing trend until 60 years of age. The male GC patients showed an increasing tendency, and female GC patients showed a decreasing tendency with age. This trend reached a plateau phase after 60 years of age.

Aquifer-test data and borehole flow test results from monitoring well 16P52 at the South Trend development area number 1, McKinley County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Ken

1984-01-01

Mobil Oil Corporation personnel have designated at least four sandstone intervals, A-D (top to bottom), on the single-point resistivity logs of wells drilled in the South Trend Development Area. This report presents time-drawdown data reported by Mobil Oil Corporation from singly (A or B or C or D sandstone interval) and multiply (A, B, C, and D sandstone Intervals) completed wells for the August 16-17, 1982 aquifer test at the South Trend Development Area Site 1. This report also describes the results of flowmeter and brine-injection tests by the U.S. Geological Survey in monitoring well 16P52. Well 16P52 is open to sandstone intervals A, B, C, and D. On July 26, 1982, water was injected at a rate of 1.43 cubic feet per minute above the A sandstone interval in well 16P52. Based on flowmeter data, the calculated rates of flow were 1.23 cubic feet per minute between the A and B sandstone intervals, 0.63 cubic foot per minute between the B and C sandstone intervals, and less than 0.17 cubic foot per minute between the C and D sandstone intervals. Based upon brine-slug-injection tests conducted during August 1982, the calculated flow rates between sandstone intervals A and B are as follows: 0.01 cubic foot per minute upward flow (B to A) about 5 hours after pumping began for the aquifer test; 0.004 cubic foot per minute upward flow (B to A) about 21 hours after pumping began; and 0.0 cubic foot per minute about 46 hours after the pump was turned off. All other brine-slug-injection tests measured no flow.

Biodegradability study of high-erucic-acid-rapeseed-oil-based lubricant additives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, E.; Crawford, R.L.; Shanahan, A.

1995-12-31

A variety of high-erucic-acid-rapeseed (HEAR)-oil-based lubricants, lubricant additives, and greases were examined for biodegradability at the University of Idaho Center for Hazardous Waste Remediation Research. Two standard biodegradability tests were employed, a currently accepted US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protocol and the Sturm Test. As is normal for tests that employ variable inocula such as sewage as a source of microorganisms, these procedures yielded variable results from one repetition to another. However, a general trend of rapid and complete biodegradability of the HEAR-oil-based materials was observed.

Streamflow characteristics and trends in New Jersey, water years 1897-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Reiser, Robert G.; Nieswand, Steven P.; Schopp, Robert D.

2005-01-01

Streamflow statistics were computed for 111 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of continuous record and for 500 low-flow partial-record stations, including 66 gaging stations with less than 20 years of continuous record. Daily mean streamflow data from water year 1897 through water year 2001 were used for the computations at the gaging stations. (The water year is the 12-month period, October 1 through September 30, designated by the calendar year in which it ends). The characteristics presented for the long-term continuous-record stations are daily streamflow, harmonic mean flow, flow frequency, daily flow durations, trend analysis, and streamflow variability. Low-flow statistics for gaging stations with less than 20 years of record and for partial-record stations were estimated by correlating base-flow measurements with daily mean flows at long-term (more than 20 years) continuous-record stations. Instantaneous streamflow measurements through water year 2003 were used to estimate low-flow statistics at the partial-record stations. The characteristics presented for partial-record stations are mean annual flow; harmonic mean flow; and annual and winter low-flow frequency. The annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day low- and high-flow data sets were tested for trends. The results of trend tests for high flows indicate relations between upward trends for high flows and stream regulation, and high flows and development in the basin. The relation between development and low-flow trends does not appear to be as strong as for development and high-flow trends. Monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data for selected long-term meteorological stations also were tested for trends to analyze the effects of climate. A significant upward trend in precipitation in northern New Jersey, Climate Division 1 was identified. For Climate Division 2, no general increase in average precipitation was observed. Trend test results indicate that high flows at undeveloped, unregulated sites have not been affected by the increase in average precipitation. The ratio of instantaneous peak flow to 3-day mean flow, ratios of flow duration, ratios of high-flow/low-flow frequency, and coefficient of variation were used to define streamflow variability. Streamflow variability was significantly greater among the group of gaging stations located outside the Coastal Plain than among the group of gaging stations located in the Coastal Plain.

Power of tests for comparing trend curves with application to national immunization survey (NIS).

PubMed

Zhao, Zhen

2011-02-28

To develop statistical tests for comparing trend curves of study outcomes between two socio-demographic strata across consecutive time points, and compare statistical power of the proposed tests under different trend curves data, three statistical tests were proposed. For large sample size with independent normal assumption among strata and across consecutive time points, the Z and Chi-square test statistics were developed, which are functions of outcome estimates and the standard errors at each of the study time points for the two strata. For small sample size with independent normal assumption, the F-test statistic was generated, which is a function of sample size of the two strata and estimated parameters across study period. If two trend curves are approximately parallel, the power of Z-test is consistently higher than that of both Chi-square and F-test. If two trend curves cross at low interaction, the power of Z-test is higher than or equal to the power of both Chi-square and F-test; however, at high interaction, the powers of Chi-square and F-test are higher than that of Z-test. The measurement of interaction of two trend curves was defined. These tests were applied to the comparison of trend curves of vaccination coverage estimates of standard vaccine series with National Immunization Survey (NIS) 2000-2007 data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

RSCABS: An R package for performing the Rao-Scott Adjusted Cochran-Armitage trend test By Slices

EPA Science Inventory

RSCABS[3] (Rao-Scott adjusted Cochran-Armitage trend test By Slices) is a modification to the Rao-Scott[5] adjusted Cochran-Armitage trend test[1, 2] that allows for testing at each individual severity score often seen in histopathological data. The test was originally developed ...

Channel degradation in southeastern Nebraska Rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Kenneth L.; Weiss, Linda S.; ,

1995-01-01

Many stream channels in southeastern Nebraska were dredged and straightened during 1904-15. The resulting channels were both shorter and steeper than the original channels. Tests for time trends were conducted using the nonparametric Kendall tau test to see if the channels have responded to these changes. Tests were conducted on the stages associated with specific discharges and on measurement characteristics at gaging stations. Tests also were conducted on hydrologic forcing variables (annual mean precipitation, annual peak discharges, annual mean discharge, and annual mean base flows). The null hypothesis (that the data were free from trend) was rejected for stages associated with the mean of the annual discharges for 6 of 7 gaging stations in the study area, but was accepted for all 3 gages on the main stem of the Missouri River. The trends at the 6 streamflow gaging stations were for decreasing stages (degrading channels) for specific discharges. The rates of change ranged from about 0.2 to 0.5 m per decade. Mean stream bed elevations computed for individual discharge measurements at these streamflow gaging stations confirmed that the channels are degrading. However, neither the precipitation nor flow variables show evidence of trends. The tendency for the channels to degrade thus cannot be attributed to changes in runoff characteristics and are assumed to be a response to the channel modifications in the early 1900's. Indications are that the channels presently are continuing to degrade.

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

A CEFR-Based Computerized Adaptive Testing System for Chinese Proficiency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Hsuan-Po; Kuo, Bor-Chen; Tsai, Ya-Hsun; Liao, Chen-Huei

2012-01-01

In the era of globalization, the trend towards learning Chinese as a foreign language (CFL) has become increasingly popular worldwide. The increasing demand in learning CFL has raised the profile of the Chinese proficiency test (CPT). This study will analyze in depth the inadequacy of current CPT's utilizing the common European framework of…

Flame Tests Performed Safely: A Safe and Effective Alternative to the Traditional Flame Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogancay, Deborah

2005-01-01

The trend toward inquiry-based learning is providing today's students with a more enriching education. When implementing inquiry it is important to recognize the great number of safety concerns that accompany this paradigm shift. Fortunately, with some consideration, teachers can shape students' laboratory experiments into safe and valuable…

Using statistical process control for monitoring the prevalence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

PubMed

Kottner, Jan; Halfens, Ruud

2010-05-01

Institutionally acquired pressure ulcers are used as outcome indicators to assess the quality of pressure ulcer prevention programs. Determining whether quality improvement projects that aim to decrease the proportions of institutionally acquired pressure ulcers lead to real changes in clinical practice depends on the measurement method and statistical analysis used. To examine whether nosocomial pressure ulcer prevalence rates in hospitals in the Netherlands changed, a secondary data analysis using different statistical approaches was conducted of annual (1998-2008) nationwide nursing-sensitive health problem prevalence studies in the Netherlands. Institutions that participated regularly in all survey years were identified. Risk-adjusted nosocomial pressure ulcers prevalence rates, grade 2 to 4 (European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel system) were calculated per year and hospital. Descriptive statistics, chi-square trend tests, and P charts based on statistical process control (SPC) were applied and compared. Six of the 905 healthcare institutions participated in every survey year and 11,444 patients in these six hospitals were identified as being at risk for pressure ulcers. Prevalence rates per year ranged from 0.05 to 0.22. Chi-square trend tests revealed statistically significant downward trends in four hospitals but based on SPC methods, prevalence rates of five hospitals varied by chance only. Results of chi-square trend tests and SPC methods were not comparable, making it impossible to decide which approach is more appropriate. P charts provide more valuable information than single P values and are more helpful for monitoring institutional performance. Empirical evidence about the decrease of nosocomial pressure ulcer prevalence rates in the Netherlands is contradictory and limited.

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1998-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickman, R. Edward; Gray, Bonnie J.

2010-01-01

Trends were determined in flow-adjusted values of selected water-quality characteristics measured year-round during water years 1998-2007 (October 1, 1997, through September 30, 2007) at 70 stations on New Jersey streams. Water-quality characteristics included in the analysis are dissolved oxygen, pH, total dissolved solids, total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. In addition, trend tests also were conducted on measurements of dissolved oxygen made only during the growing season, April to September. Nearly all the water-quality data analyzed were collected by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Ambient Surface-Water Quality Monitoring Network. Monotonic trends in flow-adjusted values of water quality were determined by use of procedures in the ESTREND computer program. A 0.05 level of significance was selected to indicate a trend. Results of tests were not reported if there were an insufficient number of measurements or insufficient number of detected concentrations, or if the results of the tests were affected by a change in data-collection methods. Trends in values of dissolved oxygen, pH, and total dissolved solids were identified using the Seasonal Kendall test. Trends or no trends in year-round concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 66 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 0 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in growing-season concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 65 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 4 stations were identified. Tests of pH values determined trends or no trends at 26 stations; decreases at 2 stations and increases at 3 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in total dissolved solids were reported for all 70 stations; decreases at 0 stations and increases at 24 stations were identified. Trends in total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite were identified by use of Tobit regression. Two sets of trend tests were conducted-one set with all measurements and a second set with all measurements except the most extreme outlier if one could be identified. The result of the test with all measurements is reported if the results of the two tests are equivalent. The result of the test without the outlier is reported if the results of the two tests are not equivalent. Trends or no trends in total phosphorus were determined for 69 stations. Decreases at 12 stations and increases at 5 stations were identified. Of the five stations on the Delaware River included in this study, decreases in concentration were identified at four. Trends or no trends in total organic nitrogen plus ammonia were determined for 69 stations. Decreases and increases in concentrations were identified at six and nine stations, respectively. Trends or no trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite were determined for 66 stations. Decreases and increases in concentration were identified at 4 and 19 stations, respectively.

Adjusted regression trend test for a multicenter clinical trial.

PubMed

Quan, H; Capizzi, T

1999-06-01

Studies using a series of increasing doses of a compound, including a zero dose control, are often conducted to study the effect of the compound on the response of interest. For a one-way design, Tukey et al. (1985, Biometrics 41, 295-301) suggested assessing trend by examining the slopes of regression lines under arithmetic, ordinal, and arithmetic-logarithmic dose scalings. They reported the smallest p-value for the three significance tests on the three slopes for safety assessments. Capizzi et al. (1992, Biometrical Journal 34, 275-289) suggested an adjusted trend test, which adjusts the p-value using a trivariate t-distribution, the joint distribution of the three slope estimators. In this paper, we propose an adjusted regression trend test suitable for two-way designs, particularly for multicenter clinical trials. In a step-down fashion, the proposed trend test can be applied to a multicenter clinical trial to compare each dose with the control. This sequential procedure is a closed testing procedure for a trend alternative. Therefore, it adjusts p-values and maintains experimentwise error rate. Simulation results show that the step-down trend test is overall more powerful than a step-down least significant difference test.

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China

DOE PAGES

Fan, Linlin; Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; ...

2017-05-16

Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI.more » The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.« less

AP Trends: Tests Soar, Scores Slip--Gaps between Groups Spur Equity Concerns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cech, Scott J.

2008-01-01

More students are taking Advanced Placement tests, but the proportion of tests receiving what is deemed a passing score has dipped, and the mean score is down for the fourth year in a row. Data released here this week by the New York City-based nonprofit organization that owns the AP brand shows that a greater-than-ever proportion of students…

Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.; Lombardo, Federico

2018-01-01

The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion of the literature regards such patterns as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though the complexity of hydrological systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations and attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques have been developed to make and justify statements about tendencies in the historical data, which are often used to predict future events. Testing trend hypothesis on observed time series is widespread in the hydro-meteorological literature mainly due to the interest in detecting consequences of human activities on the hydrological cycle. This analysis usually relies on the application of some null hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) for slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, such as Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, or similar, to summary statistics of hydrological time series (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, the reliability of this application has seldom been explored in detail. This paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, and logical flaws of NHST for trends in the analysis of hydrological data from three different points of view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, and practical. Based on a review of NHST rationale, and basic statistical definitions of stationarity, nonstationarity, and ergodicity, we show that even if the empirical estimation of trends in hydrological time series is always feasible from a numerical point of view, it is uninformative and does not allow the inference of nonstationarity without assuming a priori additional information on the underlying stochastic process, according to deductive reasoning. This prevents the use of trend NHST outcomes to support nonstationary frequency analysis and modeling. We also show that the correlation structures characterizing hydrological time series might easily be underestimated, further compromising the attempt to draw conclusions about trends spanning the period of records. Moreover, even though adjusting procedures accounting for correlation have been developed, some of them are insufficient or are applied only to some tests, while some others are theoretically flawed but still widely applied. In particular, using 250 unimpacted stream flow time series across the conterminous United States (CONUS), we show that the test results can dramatically change if the sequences of annual values are reproduced starting from daily stream flow records, whose larger sizes enable a more reliable assessment of the correlation structures.

Retrospective analysis of RF heating measurements of passive medical implants.

PubMed

Song, Ting; Xu, Zhiheng; Iacono, Maria Ida; Angelone, Leonardo M; Rajan, Sunder

2018-05-09

The test reports for the RF-induced heating of metallic devices of hundreds of medical implants have been provided to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as a part of premarket submissions. The main purpose of this study is to perform a retrospective analysis of the RF-induced heating data provided in the reports to analyze the trends and correlate them with implant geometric characteristics. The ASTM-based RF heating test reports from 86 premarket U.S. Food and Drug Administration submissions were reviewed by three U.S. Food and Drug Administration reviewers. From each test report, the dimensions and RF-induced heating values for a given whole-body (WB) specific absorption rate (SAR) and local background (LB) SAR were extracted and analyzed. The data from 56 stents were analyzed as a subset to further understand heating trends and length dependence. For a given WB SAR, the LB/WB SAR ratio varied significantly across the test labs, from 2.3 to 11.3. There was an increasing trend on the temperature change per LB SAR with device length. The maximum heating for stents occurred at lengths of approximately 100 mm at 3 T, and beyond 150 mm at 1.5 T. Differences in the LB/WB SAR ratios across testing labs and various MRI scanners could lead to inconsistent WB SAR labeling. Magnetic resonance (MR) conditional labeling based on WB SAR should be derived from a conservative estimate of global LB/WB ratios. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A data base and analysis program for shuttle main engine dynamic pressure measurements. Appendix C: Data base plots for SSME tests 902-214 through 902-314

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffin, T.

1986-01-01

A dynamic pressure data base and data base management system developed to characterize the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) dynamic pressure environment is reported. The data base represents dynamic pressure measurements obtained during single engine hot firing tests of the SSME. Software is provided to permit statistical evaluation of selected measurements under specified operating conditions. An interpolation scheme is included to estimate spectral trends with SSME power level. Flow Dynamic Environments in High Performance Rocket Engines are described.

Food-frequency questionnaire-based estimates of total antioxidant capacity and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Holtan, Shernan G; O'Connor, Helen M; Fredericksen, Zachary S; Liebow, Mark; Thompson, Carrie A; Macon, William R; Micallef, Ivana N; Wang, Alice H; Slager, Susan L; Habermann, Thomas M; Call, Timothy G; Cerhan, James R

2012-09-01

Antioxidants, primarily from fruits and vegetables, have been hypothesized to protect against non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay, which measures total antioxidant capacity of individual foods and accounts for synergism, can be estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We tested the hypothesis that higher intake of antioxidant nutrients from foods, supplements and FFQ-based ORAC values are associated with a lower risk of NHL in a clinic-based study of 603 incident cases and 1,007 frequency-matched controls. Diet was assessed with a 128-item FFQ. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals adjusted for age, sex, residence and total energy. Dietary intake of α-tocopherol (OR=0.50; p-trend=0.0002), β-carotene (OR=0.58; p-trend=0.0005), lutein/zeaxanthin (OR=0.62; p-trend=0.005), zinc (OR=0.54; p-trend=0.003) and chromium (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.032) was inversely associated with NHL risk. Inclusion of supplement use had little impact on these associations. Total vegetables (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001), particularly green leafy (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001) and cruciferous (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.045) vegetables, were inversely associated with NHL risk. NHL risk was inversely associated with both hydrophilic ORAC (OR=0.61, p-trend=0.003) and lipophilic ORAC (OR=0.48, p-trend=0.0002), although after simultaneous adjustment for other antioxidants or total vegetables, only the association for lipophilic ORAC remained significant. There was no striking heterogeneity in results across the common NHL subtypes. Higher antioxidant intake as estimated by the FFQ-ORAC, particularly the lipophilic component, was associated with a lower NHL risk after accounting for other antioxidant nutrients and vegetable intake, supporting this as potentially useful summary measure of total antioxidant intake. Copyright © 2011 UICC.

Food-Frequency Questionnaire Based Estimates of Total Antioxidant Capacity and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

PubMed Central

Holtan, Shernan G.; O’Connor, Helen M.; Fredericksen, Zachary S.; Liebow, Mark; Thompson, Carrie A.; Macon, William R.; Micallef, Ivana N.; Wang, Alice H.; Slager, Susan L.; Habermann, Thomas M.; Call, Timothy G.; Cerhan, James R.

2011-01-01

Antioxidants, primarily from fruits and vegetables, have been hypothesized to protect against non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The Oxygen Radical Absorbance Capacity (ORAC) assay, which measures total antioxidant capacity of individual foods and accounts for synergism, can be estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We tested the hypothesis that higher intake of antioxidant nutrients from foods, supplements, and FFQ-based ORAC values are associated with a lower risk of NHL in a clinic-based study of 603 incident cases and 1007 frequency-matched controls. Diet was assessed with a 128-item FFQ. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals adjusted for age, sex, residence and total energy. Dietary intake of α-tocopherol (OR=0.50; p-trend=0.0002), β-carotene (OR=0.58; p-trend=0.0005), lutein/zeaxanthin (OR=0.62; p-trend=0.005), zinc (OR=0.54; p-trend=0.003) and chromium (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.032) were inversely associated with NHL risk. Inclusion of supplement use had little impact on these associations. Total vegetables (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001), particularly green leafy (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001) and cruciferous (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.045) vegetables, were inversely associated with NHL risk. NHL risk was inversely associated with both hydrophilic ORAC (OR=0.61, p-trend=0.003) and lipophilic ORAC (OR=0.48, p-trend=0.0002), although after simultaneous adjustment for other antioxidants or total vegetables only the association for lipophilic ORAC remained significant. There was no striking heterogeneity in results across the common NHL subtypes. Higher antioxidant intake as estimated by the FFQ-ORAC, particularly the lipophilic component, was associated with a lower NHL risk after accounting for other antioxidant nutrients and vegetable intake, supporting this as potentially useful summary measure of total antioxidant intake. PMID:22038870

Turbomachinery group for cold energy concept application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi, S.; Arpi, A.; Ascani, M.; Cerri, G.; Chennaoui, L.; Manni, A.

2017-08-01

The paper discusses a special attempt to improve COP and compressor capacity. Theoretical and experimental results are presented, and they show a very positive trend. Compressor and Expander Group impellers are selected among the Car Engine Turbocharger Units. Modifications are proposed to achieve the best performance, taking the peculiar characteristics of the refrigerant into consideration. Tests have confirmed the positive saving trend, which can reach up to 22%-24% for an optimized bleed vapour generator and turbomachinery-based booster unit.

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

A Nonparametric Framework for Comparing Trends and Gaps across Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Andrew Dean

2009-01-01

Problems of scale typically arise when comparing test score trends, gaps, and gap trends across different tests. To overcome some of these difficulties, test score distributions on the same score scale can be represented by nonparametric graphs or statistics that are invariant under monotone scale transformations. This article motivates and then…

Historical and potential groundwater drawdown in the Bruneau area, Owyhee County, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkins, Candice B.; Bartolino, James R.

2012-01-01

Geothermal seeps and springs in the Bruneau area in southwestern Idaho provide a vital but disappearing habitat for the Bruneau hot springsnail (Pyrgulopsis bruneauensis). In order to aid in conservation efforts, a two-part study was conducted (1) to determine trends in groundwater levels over time and (2) to simulate drawdown in aquifers that contribute to the geothermal seeps and springs along the Bruneau River. Seasonal and Regional Kendall tests for trends were used to determine water-level trends over a 20-year monitoring (1990–2010) period. Seasonal Kendall tests were used to calculate trends in groundwater-levels in 22 monitoring wells and indicated statistically significant changes in water level with trends ranging from 0.21 to 1.0 feet per year. Regional Kendall tests were used to calculate drawdown in categories of wells based on five criteria (well depth, distance from Indian Bathtub Spring, geologic unit, regional topographic valley, and temperature). Results from Regional Kendall tests indicate that slope of the trend (in feet per year) increased as a function of well depth; trends in water level as a function of other categories did not exhibit an obvious pattern based on distance from Indian Bathtub Spring, geologic unit, topographic valley, or temperature. Analytical solutions were used to simulate drawdown and recovery in wells using the Theis equation and a range of hydraulic parameters. Drawdown effects were determined by changing the storativity, transmissivity, and flow values over a hypothetical timeline. For example, estimates projected that after 20 years of pumping (at an assumed storativity of 0.002, a transmissivity of 980,000 feet squared per day, and a flow of 100 acre-feet per year), 1 foot of drawdown in the volcanic-rock aquifers would not be detected; however, other estimates using the same time frame but different hydraulic parameters (storativity of 0.001, transmissivity of 13,000 feet squared per day, and 610 acre-feet per year) determined 1 foot of drawdown to be detected as far as 29 miles from the hypothetical pumping well. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effect of changing one hydraulic parameter while keeping the others constant. Many assumptions had to be made about properties of the aquifer in order to calculate effects of drawdown on geothermal seeps and springs. These analyses estimate pumping effects over time; the recovery of groundwater levels would likely take significantly longer to observe than the effects from pumping.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Nevada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Nevada's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP increased in grade 8 reading and math. Average annual gains were larger on the state test than on NAEP in both subjects. Trends in average (mean) test scores…

Combined use of field and laboratory testing to predict preferred flow paths in an heterogeneous aquifer.

PubMed

Gierczak, R F D; Devlin, J F; Rudolph, D L

2006-01-05

Elevated nitrate concentrations within a municipal water supply aquifer led to pilot testing of a field-scale, in situ denitrification technology based on carbon substrate injections. In advance of the pilot test, detailed characterization of the site was undertaken. The aquifer consisted of complex, discontinuous and interstratified silt, sand and gravel units, similar to other well studied aquifers of glaciofluvial origin, 15-40 m deep. Laboratory and field tests, including a conservative tracer test, a pumping test, a borehole flowmeter test, grain-size analysis of drill cuttings and core material, and permeameter testing performed on core samples, were performed on the most productive depth range (27-40 m), and the results were compared. The velocity profiles derived from the tracer tests served as the basis for comparison with other methods. The spatial variation in K, based on grain-size analysis, using the Hazen method, were poorly correlated with the breakthrough data. Trends in relative hydraulic conductivity (K/K(avg)) from permeameter testing compared somewhat better. However, the trends in transient drawdown with depth, measured in multilevel sampling points, corresponded particularly well with those of solute mass flux. Estimates of absolute K, based on standard pumping test analysis of the multilevel drawdown data, were inversely correlated with the tracer test data. The inverse nature of the correlation was attributed to assumptions in the transient drawdown packages that were inconsistent with the variable diffusivities encountered at the scale of the measurements. Collectively, the data showed that despite a relatively low variability in K within the aquifer under study (within a factor of 3), water and solute mass fluxes were concentrated in discrete intervals that could be targeted for later bioremediation.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-07-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. The derived trends were validated for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail. Overall, positive trends in annual streamflow appear to reflect the marked wetting trends of the winter months, whereas negative annual trends result primarily from a widespread decrease in streamflow in spring and summer months, consistent with a decrease in summer low flow in large parts of Europe. High flow appears to have increased in rain-dominated hydrological regimes, whereas an inconsistent or decreasing signal was found in snow-dominated regimes. The different models agreed on the predominant continental-scale pattern of trends, but in some areas disagreed on the magnitude and even the direction of trends, particularly in transition zones between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing observed trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow were more variable - both among models and in the spatial patterns of agreement between models and the observations. The use of models to display changes in these hydrological characteristics should therefore be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty.

Is it getting better? An analytical method to test trends in health disparities, with tobacco use among sexual minority vs. heterosexual youth as an example.

PubMed

Homma, Yuko; Saewyc, Elizabeth; Zumbo, Bruno D

2016-05-23

Previous studies have documented higher health risks for lesbian, gay, and bisexual youth compared to heterosexual youth. However, none has reported whether the sexual orientation-based gaps have widened, narrowed, or remained unchanged over time. The purpose of this study was to develop a way to test differences in trends between sexual minority and heterosexual youth cohorts in population-based studies, with cigarette smoking as an exemplar. We analysed the Minnesota Student Survey of 1998-2010, a repeated, cross-sectional census of adolescent health in grades 9 and 12. Our sample was students with recent sexual experience (Ns = 17,376-19,617). Sexual orientation was measured by gender of sexual partners in the past 12 months: students with only opposite-gender partner(s) (OPPOS), students with both male and female partners (BOTH), students with only same-gender partner(s) (SAME). We used logistic regressions to examine trends in prevalence of past-month cigarette smoking from 1998 to 2010, separately for each orientation group. We then applied novel interaction analyses to test whether disparities in smoking prevalence between OPPOS and SAME/BOTH changed over time. Recent smoking rates decreased over time among all orientation groups. BOTH adolescents were more likely than OPPOS adolescents to report past 30-day smoking, but there were no significant differences between SAME adolescents and OPPOS adolescents. Year-by-orientation interactions indicated the gap between BOTH adolescents and OPPOS adolescents widened from 1998 to 2004, then persisted between 2004 and 2010. No significant interaction effects were observed between SAME adolescents and OPPOS adolescents. All orientation groups had decreasing trends in recent cigarette smoking; however, disparities in smoking rates remain between heterosexual adolescents and bisexual adolescents. These results provide a new method of not just documenting trends within minority groups, but examining whether health equity is improving for them compared to dominant groups.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina.

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced metabolic-activities and shortened crop-duration. Likewise, increased Tmin may result in lesser crop and biomass yields owing to the increased respiration.

Trends in suicidality among sexual minority and heterosexual students in a Canadian population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Peter, Tracey; Edkins, Tamara; Watson, Ryan; Adjei, Jones; Homma, Yuko; Saewyc, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

Objectives Despite evidence from numerous studies that document disparities in suicidality for sexual minorities, few have investigated whether or not these trends have improved over time, which is the objective of the current study. Methods Using school-based population data over a 15-year period (1998 to 2013), multivariate logistic regressions were used to calculate age-adjusted odds ratios separately by gender. Interactions were included to test widening or narrowing disparities within orientation groups, which makes this one of the first studies to test whether gaps in disparities between heterosexual and sexual minorities have widened or narrowed over time. Results Results show that sexual minority youth are persistently at a greater risk for suicidal behaviour, a trend that has continued particularly for bisexual youth of both sexes. Results also suggest that the gap in suicidal behaviour is widening among some female sexual orientation groups, yet narrowing for other male sexual orientation groups. Conclusions These findings have important public health implications, especially since we see decreases in suicidal behaviour for heterosexual adolescents, but not in the same way for many sexual minority youth, despite advances in social acceptance of gay, lesbian, and bisexual issues in North America. PMID:29326961

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Tennessee

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Tennessee's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 8 reading and math. At grade 4, trends on the state test and NAEP differed somewhat. In…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Louisiana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Louisiana's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, trends on state tests and NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) sometimes differed. On the state test, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level increased at grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. On NAEP, the percentage of…

Crossing trend analysis methodology and application for Turkish rainfall records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şen, Zekâi

2018-01-01

Trend analyses are the necessary tools for depicting possible general increase or decrease in a given time series. There are many versions of trend identification methodologies such as the Mann-Kendall trend test, Spearman's tau, Sen's slope, regression line, and Şen's innovative trend analysis. The literature has many papers about the use, cons and pros, and comparisons of these methodologies. In this paper, a completely new approach is proposed based on the crossing properties of a time series. It is suggested that the suitable trend from the centroid of the given time series should have the maximum number of crossings (total number of up-crossings or down-crossings). This approach is applicable whether the time series has dependent or independent structure and also without any dependence on the type of the probability distribution function. The validity of this method is presented through extensive Monte Carlo simulation technique and its comparison with other existing trend identification methodologies. The application of the methodology is presented for a set of annual daily extreme rainfall time series from different parts of Turkey and they have physically independent structure.

ON EDGE CHIPPING TESTING AND SOME PERSONAL PERSPECTIVES ON THE STATE OF THE ART OF MECHANICAL TESTING

PubMed Central

Quinn, G. D.

2014-01-01

Objective The edge chipping test is used to measure the fracture resistance of dental restoration ceramics and resin composites. This paper focuses on the progress of evaluating chipping resistance of these materials and also on the progress of standardization of this test method. This paper also makes observations about the state of the art of mechanical testing of ceramic and composite restorative materials in general. Interlaboratory comparative studies (“round robins”) are recommended. Methods An edge chipping machine was used to evaluate dozens of materials including porcelains, glass ceramics, aluminas, zirconias, filled resin-composites, new hybrid ceramic-resin composites, laminated composite ceramics, and even polymethyl methacrylate based denture materials. Force versus distance data were collected over a broad range with different indenters. Several chipping resistance parameters were quantified. Results Older restorative materials such as feldspathic porcelains and veneering materials had limited chipping resistance, but more modern ceramics and filled composites show significant improvements. A yttria-partially stabilized zirconia had the greatest resistance to chipping. Much of the early work on edge chipping resistance of brittle materials emphasized linear force versus distance trends obtained with relatively blunt Rockwell C indenters. More recently, trends for dental restorative materials with alternative sharper indenters have been nonlinear. A new phenomenological model with a simple quadratic function fits all data exceptionally well. It is loosely based on an energy balance between indenter work and fracture and deformation energies in the chipped material. Significance Although a direct comparison of our laboratory scale tests on idealized simple geometries to clinical outcomes has not yet been done, anecdotal evidence suggests the procedure does produce clinically relevant rankings and outcomes. Despite the variations in the trends and indenters, comparisons between materials can easily be made by chipping convenient block-shaped specimens with sharp conical 120°, Vickers, or Rockwell C indenters at a defined edge distance of 0.5 mm. Broad distance ranges are recommended for trend evaluation. This work has provided important information for standardization. PMID:25244927

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chudowsky, Naomi; Chudowsky, Victor

2010-01-01

In recent years, scores on the annual state reading and mathematics tests used for accountability have gone up in most states. These trends in state test scores do not always coincide, however, with trends on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the federally sponsored assessment that is administered periodically to…

Desertification in the south Junggar Basin, 2000-2009: Part II. Model development and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Miao; Lin, Yi

2018-07-01

The substantial objective of desertification monitoring is to derive its development trend, which facilitates pre-making policies to handle its potential influences. Aiming at this extreme goal, previous studies have proposed a large number of remote sensing (RS) based methods to retrieve multifold indicators, as reviewed in Part I. However, most of these indicators individually capable of characterizing a single aspect of land attributes, e.g., albedo quantifying land surface reflectivity, cannot show a full picture of desertification processes; few comprehensive RS-based models have either been published. To fill this gap, this Part II was dedicated to developing a RS information model for comprehensively characterizing the desertification and deriving its trend, based on the indicators retrieved in Part I in the same case of the south Junggar Basin, China in the last decade (2000-2009). The proposed model was designed to have three dominant component modules, i.e., the vegetation-relevant sub-model, the soil-relevant sub-model, and the water-relevant sub-model, which synthesize all of the retrieved indicators to integrally reflect the processes of desertification; based on the model-output indices, the desertification trends were derived using the least absolute deviation fitting algorithm. Tests indicated that the proposed model did work and the study area showed different development tendencies for different desertification levels. Overall, this Part II established a new comprehensive RS information model for desertification risk assessment and its trend deriving, and the whole study comprising Part I and Part II advanced a relatively standard framework for RS-based desertification monitoring.

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

CHIPPING FRACTURE RESISTANCE OF DENTURE TOOTH MATERIALS

PubMed Central

Quinn, G. D.; Giuseppetti, A. A.; Hoffman, K. H.

2014-01-01

Objective The applicability of the edge chipping method to denture tooth materials was assessed. These are softer materials than those usually tested by edge chipping. The edge chipping fracture resistances of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) based and two filled resin composite denture tooth materials were compared. Methods An edge chipping machine was used to chip rectangular blocks and flattened anterior denture teeth. Force versus edge distance data were collected over a broad range of forces and distances. Between 20 and 65 chips were made per condition depending upon the material, the scatter, and the indenter type. Different indenter types were used including Rockwell C, sharp conical 120°, Knoop, and Vickers. The edge toughness, Te, was evaluated for different indenter types. Results The edge chipping data collected on the blocks matched the data collected from flattened teeth. High scatter, particularly at large distances and loads, meant that many tests (up to 64) were necessary to compare the denture tooth materials and to ascertain the appropriate data trends. A linear force – distance trend analysis was adequate for comparing these materials. A power law trend might be more appropriate, but the large scatter obscured the definitive determination of the precise trend. Different indenters produce different linear trends, with the ranking of: sharp conical 120°, Rockwell C, and Knoop, from lowest to highest edge toughness. Vickers indenter data were extremely scattered and a sensible trend could not be obtained. Edge toughness was inversely correlated to hardness. Significance Edge chipping data collected either from simple laboratory scale test blocks or from actual denture teeth may be used to evaluate denture materials. The edge chipping method’s applicability has been extended to another class of restorative materials. PMID:24674342

Women victims of intentional homicide in Italy: New insights comparing Italian trends to German and U.S. trends, 2008-2014.

PubMed

Terranova, Claudio; Zen, Margherita

2018-01-01

National statistics on female homicide could be a useful tool to evaluate the phenomenon and plan adequate strategies to prevent and reduce this crime. The aim of the study is to contribute to the analysis of intentional female homicides in Italy by comparing Italian trends to German and United States trends from 2008 to 2014. This is a population study based on data deriving primarily from national and European statistical institutes, from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting and from the National Center for Health Statistics. Data were analyzed in relation to trends and age by Chi-square test, Student's t-test and linear regression. Results show that female homicides, unlike male homicides, remained stable in the three countries. Regression analysis showed a higher risk for female homicide in all age groups in the U.S. Middle-aged women result at higher risk, and the majority of murdered women are killed by people they know. These results confirm previous findings and suggest the need to focus also in Italy on preventive strategies to reduce those precipitating factors linked to violence and present in the course of a relationship or within the family. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Green fuel utilization for diesel engine, combustion and emission analysis fuelled with CNSO diesel blends with Diethyl ether as additive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ashok; Rajan, K.; Senthil Kumar, K. R.; Maiyappan, K.; Rasheed, Usama Tariq

2017-05-01

The experimental investigation is conducted to evaluate the effects by using Diethyl ether (DEE) as an additive. The Cashew Nut Shell Oil diesel blends (CDB) are tested in a 4-stroke single cylinder DI unmodified diesel engine, rated power is 4.4 kW at a speed of 1500 rpm. The effect of combustion analysis of test fuels on net heat release rate, cylinder pressure, engine power, BSFC, BTE, EGT were observed by the performance tests. The combustion and emission characteristics of a diesel engine with an additive of high cetane number is utilized with CDB and thus investigated. The influence of blends on CO, CO2, HC, NOx and smoke opacity is investigated by emission tests. Initially, the experiment was conducted with different blends of CDB diesel blends like 10%, 20%, & 30% by volume basis in a diesel engine. Among this blends B20 shows reasonable result and heat dissipation rate at full load conditions. The BTE of B20 is 27.52% whereas base diesel fuel is 29.73%. Addition of the DEE by 5%, 10% and 15% by volume basis with B20 which is a base fuel has resulted with improved estimates. The result shows that at full load conditions BTE of B20D10 is 28.96% which is close to the base fuel i.e. B20. The emissions like CO2 shows reducing trends while HC emission rises with increase in CNSO blends. The HC in diesel corresponds to 30ppm and in B20 it is 34ppm, but addition of DEE shows a decreasing trend as in B20D5 has 29ppm and B20D15 has 23ppm respectively. NOx also shows increasing trends with CNSO blend, after addition of DEE it shows declining trend. The NOx for diesel, B20, B30, B20D5, B20D10 and B20D15 emits 1195, 1450, 1511, 1327, 1373 and 1200ppm respectively. The smoke emission is 3.96, 3.38, 3.15 FSN of B20, B20D15 and diesel respectively.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

An Improved Rank Correlation Effect Size Statistic for Single-Case Designs: Baseline Corrected Tau.

PubMed

Tarlow, Kevin R

2017-07-01

Measuring treatment effects when an individual's pretreatment performance is improving poses a challenge for single-case experimental designs. It may be difficult to determine whether improvement is due to the treatment or due to the preexisting baseline trend. Tau- U is a popular single-case effect size statistic that purports to control for baseline trend. However, despite its strengths, Tau- U has substantial limitations: Its values are inflated and not bound between -1 and +1, it cannot be visually graphed, and its relatively weak method of trend control leads to unacceptable levels of Type I error wherein ineffective treatments appear effective. An improved effect size statistic based on rank correlation and robust regression, Baseline Corrected Tau, is proposed and field-tested with both published and simulated single-case time series. A web-based calculator for Baseline Corrected Tau is also introduced for use by single-case investigators.

Update from C3RS lessons learned team : safety culture and trend analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) believes that, in addition to process and technology innovations, human-factors-based solutions can significantly contribute to improving safety in the railroad industry. To test this assumption, FRA implemen...

Environmental Assessment for Changes to Reveille Airspace at Nevada Test and Training Range Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

basin and range characteristics associated with the Great Basin . The base elevation of the area is 5000 feet above Mean Sea Level (MSL) to 6000 MSL...REVEILLE AIRSPACE AT NEVADA TEST AND TRAINING RANGE The area is located within the Great Basin , a physiographic region with no external drainage...characterized by “ basin and range” topography, in which hydrographically isolated basins or valleys are separated by north-south trending low mountain

Test Reviews: Loranger, A. W. (2001). "OMNI Personality Inventory." Lutz, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guess, Pamela

2006-01-01

The OMNI Personality Inventory (OMNI) is a self-report questionnaire designed for use with adolescents and adults between 18 and 74 years of age. The questionnaire is not based on a particular theory, consistent with current trends in test development, according to the author. An abbreviated form of the OMNI, the OMNI-IV Personality Disorder…

Evaluation of reusable surface insulation for space shuttle over a range of heat-transfer rate and surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, A. J.

1973-01-01

Reusable surface insulation materials, which were developed as heat shields for the space shuttle, were tested over a range of conditions including heat-transfer rates between 160 and 620 kW/sq m. The lowest of these heating rates was in a range predicted for the space shuttle during reentry, and the highest was more than twice the predicted entry heating on shuttle areas where reusable surface insulation would be used. Individual specimens were tested repeatedly at increasingly severe conditions to determine the maximum heating rate and temperature capability. A silica-base material experienced only minimal degradation during repeated tests which included conditions twice as severe as predicted shuttle entry and withstood cumulative exposures three times longer than the best mullite material. Mullite-base materials cracked and experienced incipient melting at conditions within the range predicted for shuttle entry. Neither silica nor mullite materials consistently survived the test series with unbroken waterproof surfaces. Surface temperatures for a silica and a mullite material followed a trend expected for noncatalytic surfaces, whereas surface temperatures for a second mullite material appeared to follow a trend expected for a catalytic surface.

Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maceira, Monica; Blom, Philip Stephen; MacCarthy, Jonathan K.

This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the documentmore » for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.« less

Weighted re-randomization tests for minimization with unbalanced allocation.

PubMed

Han, Baoguang; Yu, Menggang; McEntegart, Damian

2013-01-01

Re-randomization test has been considered as a robust alternative to the traditional population model-based methods for analyzing randomized clinical trials. This is especially so when the clinical trials are randomized according to minimization, which is a popular covariate-adaptive randomization method for ensuring balance among prognostic factors. Among various re-randomization tests, fixed-entry-order re-randomization is advocated as an effective strategy when a temporal trend is suspected. Yet when the minimization is applied to trials with unequal allocation, fixed-entry-order re-randomization test is biased and thus compromised in power. We find that the bias is due to non-uniform re-allocation probabilities incurred by the re-randomization in this case. We therefore propose a weighted fixed-entry-order re-randomization test to overcome the bias. The performance of the new test was investigated in simulation studies that mimic the settings of a real clinical trial. The weighted re-randomization test was found to work well in the scenarios investigated including the presence of a strong temporal trend. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Groundwater level trends and drivers in two northern New England glacial aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, James B.; Chalmers, Ann T.; Mack, Thomas J.; Smith, Thor E.; Harte, Philip T.

2016-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends and predictors of groundwater levels by month from two well-studied northern New England forested headwater glacial aquifers: Sleepers River, Vermont, 44 wells, 1992-2013; and Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, 15 wells, 1979-2004. Based on Kendall Tau tests with Sen slope determination, a surprising number of well-month combinations had negative trends (decreasing water levels) over the respective periods. Sleepers River had slightly more positive than negative trends overall, but among the significant trends (p < 0.1), negative trends dominated 67 to 40. At Hubbard Brook, negative trends outnumbered positive trends by a nearly 2:1 margin and all seven of the significant trends were negative. The negative trends occurred despite generally increasing trends in monthly and annual precipitation. This counterintuitive pattern may be a result of increased precipitation intensity causing higher runoff at the expense of recharge, such that evapotranspiration demand draws down groundwater storage. We evaluated predictors of month-end water levels by multiple regression of 18 variables related to climate, streamflow, snowpack, and prior month water level. Monthly flow and prior month water level were the two strongest predictors for most months at both sites. The predictive power and ready availability of streamflow data can be exploited as a proxy to extend limited groundwater level records over longer time periods.

[ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in the eastern urban China: from 2001 to 2011].

PubMed

Li, J; Li, X; Hu, S; Yu, Y; Yan, X F; Jiang, L X

2016-04-24

To assess trends in clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes for hospitalized patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI) in eastern urban China from 2001 to 2011. The data were obtained from the China PEACE-retrospective acute myocardial infarction study. Patients admitted to hospital in the eastern urban China for STEMI were selected via two-stage random sampling. The first phase was to identify participating hospitals via a simple random-sampling procedure. The second stage was to select patients admitted to each participating hospitals for acute myocardial infarction in the year of 2001, 2006 and 2011 with a systematic sampling approach. Then clinical information was obtained via central medical record abstraction for each patient. In all analyses, weight was calculated proportional to the inverse sampling fraction for each period. Multilevel logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations were used for analysis of patient outcomes. This analysis included 5 257 patients with STEMI from 32 hospitals. In 2001, 2006, and 2011, the median age of STEMI patients was 66(57, 72)、67(56, 74)and 63(53, 74)years(trend test P=0.008), the proportion of female was 30.3%, 29.5% and 29.2%(trend test P=0.530), respectively. The proportion of cardiovascular risk factors increased over time(trend test P<0.001); 45.6%, 55.6%, and 56.3% patients had hypertension(trend test P<0.001); 18.8%, 27.7% and 26.2% patients had diabetes(trend test P<0.001); 50.1%, 59.2% and 70.5% patients had dyslipidemia(trend test P<0.001); 30.5%, 35.1% and 44.1% patients are current smokers(trend test P<0.001) in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. Between 2001 and 2011, there were significant increases in aspirin use(80.7% in 2001, 90.4% in 2006, and 91.5% in 2011, trend test P<0.001), clopidogrel use(2.9% in 2001, 64.2% in 2006, and 90.3% in 2011, trend test P<0.001) within 24 hours after admission, statins use rate was 45.8% in 2001, 83.4% in 2006, and 93.8% in 2011(trend test P<0.001), and rate of direct percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI) was 21.0% in 2001, 29.7% in 2006, and 40.3% in 2011(trend test P<0.001) in patients without documented contraindications. However, the rate of reperfusion therapy was non-significantly decreased: 58.5% in 2001, 58.0% in 2006, and 55.5% in 2011 (trend test P=0.230). The use of beta blockers also decreased: 62.4% in 2001, 64.3% in 2006 and 55.2% in 2011(trend test P=0.001). The mortality rate within 7 days following admission was 7.8%, 7.0%, 6.1%, and the proportion of death or treatment withdrawal because of terminal status was 8.3%, 8.6%, 7.4% in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. Both parameters were similar among the 3 time points(trend test P>0.05). During the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in application of new technology and drug for STEMI in the eastern urban China. However, important gaps persist between clinical practice and guideline recommendations, and the outcomes of patients have not been significantly improved. Clinical Trail Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01624883.

Discrete wavelet transform-based investigation into the variability of standardized precipitation index in Northwest China during 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Zhan, Chesheng; Zhang, Yongyong; Hu, Sheng

2018-04-01

In this study, the temporal variations of the standard precipitation index (SPI) were analyzed at different scales in Northwest China (NWC). Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test in this study. This study also investigated the relationships between original precipitation and different periodic components of SPI series with datasets spanning 55 years (1960-2014). The results showed that with the exception of the annual and summer SPI in the Inner Mongolia Inland Rivers Basin (IMIRB), spring SPI in the Qinghai Lake Rivers Basin (QLRB), and spring SPI in the Central Asia Rivers Basin (CARB), it had an increasing trend in other regions for other time series. In the spring, summer, and autumn series, though the MK trends test in most areas was at the insignificant level, they showed an increasing trend in precipitation. Meanwhile, the SPI series in most subbasins of NWC displayed a turning point in 1980-1990, with the significant increasing levels after 2000. Additionally, there was a significant difference between the trend of the original SPI series and the largest approximations. The annual and seasonal SPI series were composed of the short periodicities, which were less than a decade. The MK value would increase by adding the multiple D components (and approximations), and the MK value of the combined series was in harmony with that of the original series. Additionally, the major trend of the annual SPI in NWC was based on the four kinds of climate indices (e.g., Atlantic Oscillation [AO], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and El Nino-Southern Oscillation index [ENSO/NINO]), especially the ENSO.

The computation of equating errors in international surveys in education.

PubMed

Monseur, Christian; Berezner, Alla

2007-01-01

Since the IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study, one of the major objectives of international surveys in education has been to report trends in achievement. The names of the two current IEA surveys reflect this growing interest: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). Similarly a central concern of the OECD's PISA is with trends in outcomes over time. To facilitate trend analyses these studies link their tests using common item equating in conjunction with item response modelling methods. IEA and PISA policies differ in terms of reporting the error associated with trends. In IEA surveys, the standard errors of the trend estimates do not include the uncertainty associated with the linking step while PISA does include a linking error component in the standard errors of trend estimates. In other words, PISA implicitly acknowledges that trend estimates partly depend on the selected common items, while the IEA's surveys do not recognise this source of error. Failing to recognise the linking error leads to an underestimation of the standard errors and thus increases the Type I error rate, thereby resulting in reporting of significant changes in achievement when in fact these are not significant. The growing interest of policy makers in trend indicators and the impact of the evaluation of educational reforms appear to be incompatible with such underestimation. However, the procedure implemented by PISA raises a few issues about the underlying assumptions for the computation of the equating error. After a brief introduction, this paper will describe the procedure PISA implemented to compute the linking error. The underlying assumptions of this procedure will then be discussed. Finally an alternative method based on replication techniques will be presented, based on a simulation study and then applied to the PISA 2000 data.

Standards and Assessment: Coherence from the Teacher's Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonner, Sarah M.; Torres Rivera, Camila; Chen, Peggy P.

2018-01-01

We sought to understand how teachers' perspectives on standards-based instructional practices, classroom assessment, and external testing do or do not show coherence and alignment. Based on survey methods (n = 155) and interviews with a sample of secondary school teachers (n = 9) in a large urban district in the USA, we explored general trends and…

[Hydrologic variability and sensitivity based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic].

PubMed

Lei, Xu; Xie, Ping; Wu, Zi Yi; Sang, Yan Fang; Zhao, Jiang Yan; Li, Bin Bin

2018-04-01

Due to the global climate change and frequent human activities in recent years, the pure stochastic components of hydrological sequence is mixed with one or several of the variation ingredients, including jump, trend, period and dependency. It is urgently needed to clarify which indices should be used to quantify the degree of their variability. In this study, we defined the hydrological variability based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic, and used Monte Carlo statistical tests to test and analyze their sensitivity to different variants. When the hydrological sequence had jump or trend variation, both Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic could reflect the variation, with the Hurst coefficient being more sensitive to weak jump or trend variation. When the sequence had period, only the Bartels statistic could detect the mutation of the sequence. When the sequence had a dependency, both the Hurst coefficient and the Bartels statistics could reflect the variation, with the latter could detect weaker dependent variations. For the four variations, both the Hurst variability and Bartels variability increased with the increases of variation range. Thus, they could be used to measure the variation intensity of the hydrological sequence. We analyzed the temperature series of different weather stations in the Lancang River basin. Results showed that the temperature of all stations showed the upward trend or jump, indicating that the entire basin had experienced warming in recent years and the temperature variability in the upper and lower reaches was much higher. This case study showed the practicability of the proposed method.

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

2018-05-01

Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

Trends in nutrients and suspended solids at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, July 1988 through June 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, C.F.; Belval, D.L.; Campbell, J.P.

1996-01-01

Water-quality samples were collected at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia during a 6- to 7-year period. The water-quality data were used to estimate loads of nutrients and suspended solids from these tributaries to the non-tidal part of Chesapeake Bay Basin and to identify trends in water quality. Knowledge of trends in water quality is required to assess the effectiveness of nutrient manage- ment strategies in the five basins. Multivariate log-linear regression and the seasonal Kendall test were used to estimate flow-adjusted trends in constituent concentration and load. Results of multivariate log-linear regression indicated a greater number of statistically significant trends than the seasonal Kendall test; how-ever, when both methods indicated a significant trend, both agreed on the direction of the trend. Interpre- tation of the trend estimates for this report was based on results of the parametric regression method. No significant trends in total nitrogen concentration were detected at the James River monitoring station from July 1988 through June 1995, though total Kjeldahl nitrogen concen- tration decreased slightly in base-flow samples. Total phosphorus concentration decreased about 29 percent at this station during the sampling period. Most of the decrease can be attributed to reductions in point-source phosphorus loads in 1988 and 1989, especially the phosphate detergent ban of 1988. No significant trends in total suspended solids were observed at the James River monitoring station, and no trends in runoff- derived constituents were interpreted for this river. Significant decreases were detected in concentrations of total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, and total suspended solids at the Rappahannock River monitoring station between July 1988 and June 1995. A similar downward trend in total phosphorus concentration was significant at the 90-percent confidence level, but not the 95-percent confidence level. These decreases can be attributed primarily to reductions in nonpoint nutrient and sediment loads, and may have been partially caused by implementation of best management practices on agricultural and silvicultural land. Flow-adjusted trends observed at the Appomattox, Pamunkey, and Mattaponi monitoring stations were more difficult to explain than those at the James and Rappahannock stations. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus increased 16 and 23 percent, respectively, at the Appomattox River monitoring station from July 1989 through June 1995. Total phosphorus concentration increased about 46 percent at the Pamunkey River monitoring station between July 1989 and June 1995. At the Mattaponi River monitoring station, decreases in dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen were offset by increases in total Kjeldahl nitrogen, resulting in no net change in total nitrogen concentration from October 1989 through June 1995.

An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Petersen, Walter A.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Deierling, Wiebke; Kessinger, Cathy

2011-01-01

Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Determination of elastic modulus of ceramics using ultrasonic testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasmita, Firmansyah; Wibisono, Gatot; Judawisastra, Hermawan; Priambodo, Toni Agung

2018-04-01

Elastic modulus is important material property on structural ceramics application. However, bending test as a common method for determining this property require particular specimen preparation. Furthermore, elastic modulus of ceramics could vary because it depends on porosity content. For structural ceramics industry, such as ceramic tiles, this property is very important. This drives the development of new method to improve effectivity or verification method as well. In this research, ultrasonic testing was conducted to determine elastic modulus of soda lime glass and ceramic tiles. The experiment parameter was frequency of probe (1, 2, 4 MHz). Characterization of density and porosity were also done for analysis. Results from ultrasonic testing were compared with elastic modulus resulted from bending test. Elastic modulus of soda-lime glass based on ultrasonic testing showed excellent result with error 2.69% for 2 MHz probe relative to bending test result. Testing on red and white ceramic tiles were still contained error up to 41% and 158%, respectively. The results for red ceramic tile showed trend that 1 MHz probe gave better accuracy in determining elastic modulus. However, testing on white ceramic tile showed different trend. It was due to the presence of porosity and near field effect.

Integrating gender and sex to unpack trends in sexually transmitted infection surveillance data in British Columbia, Canada: an ethno-epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Knight, Rod; Falasinnu, Titilola; Oliffe, John L; Gilbert, Mark; Small, Will; Goldenberg, Shira; Shoveller, Jean

2016-01-01

Objectives Surveillance data frequently indicate that young men and women experience high—yet considerably different—reported rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including bacterial infections such as chlamydia. We examined how several sex-based (eg, biological) and gender-based (eg, sociocultural) factors may interact to influence STI surveillance data trends. Methods Employing ethno-epidemiological techniques, we analysed cross-sectional qualitative data collected between 2006 and 2013 about young people's experiences accessing STI testing services in five communities in British Columbia, Canada. These data included 250 semistructured interviews with young men and women aged 15–24 years, as well as 39 clinicians who provided STI testing services. Results The findings highlight how young women are socially and medically encouraged to regularly test, while young men are rarely offered similar opportunities. Instead, young men tend to seek out testing services: (1) at the beginning or end of a sexual relationship; (2) after a high-risk sexual encounter; (3) after experiencing symptoms; or (4) based on concerns about ‘abnormal’ sexual anatomy. Our results illustrate how institutions and individuals align with stereotypical gender norms regarding sexual health responsibilities, STI testing and STI treatments. While these patterns reflect social phenomena, they also appear to intersect with sex-based, biological experiences of symptomatology in ways that might help to further explain systematic differences between young men's and women's patterns of testing for STIs. Conclusions The results point to the importance of taking a social and biological view to understanding the factors that contribute to the gap between young men's and women's routine engagement in STI care. PMID:27566628

Integrating gender and sex to unpack trends in sexually transmitted infection surveillance data in British Columbia, Canada: an ethno-epidemiological study.

PubMed

Knight, Rod; Falasinnu, Titilola; Oliffe, John L; Gilbert, Mark; Small, Will; Goldenberg, Shira; Shoveller, Jean

2016-08-26

Surveillance data frequently indicate that young men and women experience high-yet considerably different-reported rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including bacterial infections such as chlamydia. We examined how several sex-based (eg, biological) and gender-based (eg, sociocultural) factors may interact to influence STI surveillance data trends. Employing ethno-epidemiological techniques, we analysed cross-sectional qualitative data collected between 2006 and 2013 about young people's experiences accessing STI testing services in five communities in British Columbia, Canada. These data included 250 semistructured interviews with young men and women aged 15-24 years, as well as 39 clinicians who provided STI testing services. The findings highlight how young women are socially and medically encouraged to regularly test, while young men are rarely offered similar opportunities. Instead, young men tend to seek out testing services: (1) at the beginning or end of a sexual relationship; (2) after a high-risk sexual encounter; (3) after experiencing symptoms; or (4) based on concerns about 'abnormal' sexual anatomy. Our results illustrate how institutions and individuals align with stereotypical gender norms regarding sexual health responsibilities, STI testing and STI treatments. While these patterns reflect social phenomena, they also appear to intersect with sex-based, biological experiences of symptomatology in ways that might help to further explain systematic differences between young men's and women's patterns of testing for STIs. The results point to the importance of taking a social and biological view to understanding the factors that contribute to the gap between young men's and women's routine engagement in STI care. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

2016-12-01

In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

Development of concrete QC/QA specifications for highway construction in Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

There is a growing trend toward quality-based specifications in highway construction. A large number of quality control/quality assurance (QC/QA) specifications shift the responsibility of day-to-day testing from the state DOH to the contractor. This...

Application of empirical and mechanistic-empirical pavement design procedures to Mn/ROAD concrete pavement test sections

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-05-01

Current pavement design procedures are based principally on empirical approaches. The current trend toward developing more mechanistic-empirical type pavement design methods led Minnesota to develop the Minnesota Road Research Project (Mn/ROAD), a lo...

Achievement Testing--A Look at Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bligh, Harold F.

The strengths and weakness of standardized tests, and trends in achievement testing in the last 15 years are examined. The discussion of achievement tests includes survey, instructional, diagnostic, and basic skills tests, as well as tests used for formative and summative evaluation. Minimum competency tests are not examined in detail. Advantages…

Trends in basic mathematical competencies of beginning undergraduates in Ireland, 2003-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treacy, Páraic; Faulkner, Fiona

2015-11-01

Deficiencies in beginning undergraduate students' basic mathematical skills has been an issue of concern in higher education, particularly in the past 15 years. This issue has been tracked and analysed in a number of universities in Ireland and internationally through student scores recorded in mathematics diagnostic tests. Students beginning their science-based and technology-based undergraduate courses in the University of Limerick have had their basic mathematics skills tested without any prior warning through a 40 question diagnostic test during their initial service mathematics lecture since 1998. Data gathered through this diagnostic test have been recorded in a database kept at the university and explored to track trends in mathematical competency of these beginning undergraduates. This paper details findings surrounding an analysis of the database between 2003 and 2013, outlining changes in mathematical competencies of these beginning undergraduates in an attempt to determine reasons for such changes. The analysis found that the proportion of students tested through this diagnostic test that are predicted to be at risk of failing their service mathematics end-of-semester examinations has increased significantly between 2003 and 2013. Furthermore, when students' performance in secondary level mathematics was controlled, it was determined that the performance of beginning undergraduates in 2013 was statistically significantly below that of the performance of the beginning undergraduates recorded 10 years previously.

Analysis of stochastic characteristics of the Benue River flow process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otache, Martins Y.; Bakir, Mohammad; Li, Zhijia

2008-05-01

Stochastic characteristics of the Benue River streamflow process are examined under conditions of data austerity. The streamflow process is investigated for trend, non-stationarity and seasonality for a time period of 26 years. Results of trend analyses with Mann-Kendall test show that there is no trend in the annual mean discharges. Monthly flow series examined with seasonal Kendall test indicate the presence of positive change in the trend for some months, especially the months of August, January, and February. For the stationarity test, daily and monthly flow series appear to be stationary whereas at 1%, 5%, and 10% significant levels, the stationarity alternative hypothesis is rejected for the annual flow series. Though monthly flow appears to be stationary going by this test, because of high seasonality, it could be said to exhibit periodic stationarity based on the seasonality analysis. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) There is seasonality in both the mean and variance with unimodal distribution. (2) Days with high mean also have high variance. (3) Skewness coefficients for the months within the dry season period are greater than those of the wet season period, and seasonal autocorrelations for streamflow during dry season are generally larger than those of the wet season. Precisely, they are significantly different for most of the months. (4) The autocorrelation functions estimated “over time” are greater in the absolute value for data that have not been deseasonalised but were initially normalised by logarithmic transformation only, while autocorrelation functions for i = 1, 2, ..., 365 estimated “over realisations” have their coefficients significantly different from other coefficients.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the context of nonstationarity. The results have indicated the importance of taking into consideration the nonstationary behaviour of the flood series in order to improve the quality of flood estimation. The results also provided a general impression on the possible impacts of climate change on flood estimation in the Quebec province.

Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syed, Atiq U.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2005-01-01

To demonstrate the value of long-term, water-quality monitoring, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a study to evaluate potential trends in water-quality constituents for selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations in Michigan. The goal of this study is to assist the MDEQ in evaluating the effectiveness of water-pollution control efforts and the identification of water-quality concerns. The study included a total of nine NASQAN stations in Michigan. Approximately 28 constituents were analyzed for trend tests. Station selection was based on data availability, land-use characteristics, and station priority for the MDEQ Water Chemistry Monitoring Project. Trend analyses were completed using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall Test in the computer program Estimate Trend (ESTREND), a software program for the detection of trends in water-quality data. The parameters chosen for the trend test had (1) at least a 5-year period of record (2) about 5 percent of the observations censored at a single reporting limit, and (3) 40 percent of the values within the beginning one-fifth and ending one-fifth of the selected period. In this study, a negative trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent, which generally means an improvement in water quality; whereas a positive trend means an increase in concentration and possible degradation of water quality. The results of the study show an overall improvement in water quality at the Clinton River at Mount Clemens, Manistee River at Manistee, and Pigeon River near Caseville. The detected trend for these stations show decreases in concentrations of various constituents such as nitrogen compounds, conductance, sulfate, fecal coliform bacteria, and fecal streptococci bacteria. The negative trend may indicate an overall improvement in agricultural practices, municipal and industrial wastewater-treatment processes, and effective regulations. Phosphorus data for most of the study stations could not be analyzed because of the data limitations for trend tests. The only station with a significant negative trend in total phosphorus concentration is the Clinton River at Mount Clemens. However, scatter-plot analyses of phosphorus data indicate decreasing concentrations with time for most of the study stations. Positive trends in concentration of nitrogen compounds were detected at the Kalamazoo River near Saugatuck and Muskegon River near Bridgeton. Positive trends in both fecal coliform and total fecal coliform were detected at the Tahquamenon River near Paradise. Various different point and nonpoint sources could produce such positive trends, but most commonly the increase in concentrations of nitrogen compounds and fecal coliform bacteria are associated with agricultural practices and sewage-plant discharges. The constituent with the most numerous and geographically widespread significant trend is pH. The pH levels increased at six out of nine stations on all the major rivers in Michigan, with no negative trend at any station. The cause of pH increase is difficult to determine, as it could be related to a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes occurring simultaneously in the environment. Trends in concentration of major ions, such as calcium, sodium, magnesium, sulfate, fluoride, chloride, and potassium, were detected at eight out of nine stations. A negative trend was detected only in sulfate and fluoride concentrations; a positive trend was detected only in calcium concentration. The major ions with the most widespread significant trends are sodium and chloride; three positive and two negative trends were detected for sodium, and three negative and two positive trends were detected for chloride. The negative trends in chloride concentrations outnumbered the positive trends. This result indicates a slight improvement in surface-water quality because chloride as a point source in natural water comes from deicing salt, sewage effluents, industrial wastes, and oil fields. For other major ions, such as magnesium and potassium, both positive and negative trends were detected. These changes in trends indicate changes in surface-water quality caused by a variety of point and non-point sources throughout Michigan, as well as natural changes in the environment.

The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities.

PubMed

Scherb, Hagen; Voigt, Kristina

2011-06-01

Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered in the scientific community. Positive evidence, however weak, was obtained after the atomic bombing of Japan. We previously investigated trends in the sex odds before and after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident. In a pilot study, combined data from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, and Sweden between 1982 and 1992 showed a downward trend in the sex odds and a significant jump in 1987, the year immediately after Chernobyl. Moreover, a significant positive association of the sex odds between 1986 and 1991 with Chernobyl fallout at the district level in Germany was observed. Both of these findings, temporality (effect after exposure) and dose response association, yield evidence of causality. The primary aim of this study was to investigate longer time periods (1950-2007) in all of Europe and in the USA with emphasis on the global atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout and on the Chernobyl accident. To obtain further evidence, we also analyze sex odds data near nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. DATA AND STATISTICAL METHODS: National gender-specific annual live births data for 39 European countries from 1975 to 2007 were compiled using the pertinent internet data bases provided by the World Health Organization, United Nations, Council of Europe, and EUROSTAT. For a synoptic re-analysis of the period 1950 to 1990, published data from the USA and from a predominantly western and less Chernobyl-exposed part of Europe were studied additionally. To assess spatial, temporal, as well as spatial-temporal trends in the sex odds and to investigate possible changes in those trends after the atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities, we applied ordinary linear logistic regression. Region-specific and eventually changing spatial-temporal trends were analyzed using dummy variables coding for continents, countries, districts, municipalities, time periods, and appropriate spatial-temporal interactions. The predominantly western European sex odds trend together with the US sex odds trend (1950-1990 each) show a similar behavior. Both trends are consistent with a uniform reduction from 1950 to 1964, an increase from 1964 to 1975 that may be associated with delayed global atomic bomb test fallout released prior to the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and again a more or less constant decrease from 1975 to 1990. In practically all of Europe, including eastern European countries, from 1975 to 1986, and in the USA from 1975 to 2002, there were highly significant uniform downward trends in the sex odds with a reduction of 0.22% to 0.25% per 10 years. In contrast to the USA, in Europe there was a highly significant jump of the sex odds of 0.20% in the year 1987 following Chernobyl. From 1987 to 2000, the European sex odds trend reversed its sign and went upward, highly significantly so, with 0.42% per 10 years relative to the downward trend before Chernobyl. The global secular trend analyses are corroborated by the analysis of spatial-temporal sex odds trends near nuclear facilities (NF) in Germany and Switzerland. Within 35 km distance from those NF, the sex odds increase significantly in the range of 0.30% to 0.40% during NF operating time. The atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout affected the human sex odds at birth overall, and the Chernobyl fallout had a similar impact in Europe and parts of Asia. The birth sex odds near nuclear facilities are also distorted. The persistently disturbed secular human sex odds trends allow the estimation of the global deficit of births in the range of several millions.

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Variations in snow cover seasonality across the Kyrgyz Republic from 2000 to 2016 revealed through MODIS Terra and Aqua snow products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaszewska, M. A.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

The vertical transhumance practiced by herders in the highlands of Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to environmental change. Herd movements and pasture conditions are both affected by spatial and temporal variations in snow cover and the timing of snowmelt. Early growing season soil moisture conditions affect the phenology and growth of vegetation, especially in the high elevation pastures used for summer forage. To evaluate snow seasonality, we examined three snow cover variables—the first day of snow (FDoS), the last day of snow (LDoS), and the duration of snow cover (DoSC) over 17 years based on 8-day snow product from MODIS Terra and Aqua (MOD/MYD10A2) across the Kyrgyz Republic (KYR). To track the "snow season" efficiently in the presence of snow-capped peaks, we start each snow season at day of year (DOY) 169, approximately the summer solstice, and extend to DOY 168 of the following year. To track the interannual variation of these variables, we applied two nonparametric statistics: the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Theil-Sen linear trend estimator. Our preliminary results focusing on four rayons in two oblasts indicate both large swaths of positive and negative significant trends over the different regions of the country. Positive trends in FDoS, meaning later snow arrival, were detected in parts of central KYR. Negative trends in FDoS meaning earlier arrival were detected at lower elevations in southwestern KYR. Earlier snowmelt (negative trend in LDoS) in eastern KYR resulted in a shorter snow season (negative trend in DoSC); in contrast, later snowmelt in southwestern KYR (positive trend in LDoS) resulted in a longer period of snow cover (positive trend of DoSC). We extend the analysis to the entire country and explore the influence of terrain attribites (elevation, slope, and aspect) and MODIS IGBP land cover type (MCD12Q1) on trends in snow cover seasonality. Additionally, we ran the trend tests for the Terra and Aqua snow products separately to evaluate the effect of overpass time on snow cover retrieval.

Radiation exposure due to local fallout from Soviet atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Kazakhstan: solid cancer mortality in the Semipalatinsk historical cohort, 1960-1999.

PubMed

Bauer, Susanne; Gusev, Boris I; Pivina, Ludmila M; Apsalikov, Kazbek N; Grosche, Bernd

2005-10-01

Little information is available on the health effects of exposures to fallout from Soviet nuclear weapons testing and on the combined external and internal environmental exposures that have resulted from these tests. This paper reports the first analysis of the Semipalatinsk historical cohort exposed in the vicinity of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, Kazakhstan. The cohort study, which includes 19,545 inhabitants of exposed and comparison villages of the Semipalatinsk region, was set up in the 1960s and comprises 582,750 person-years of follow-up between 1960 and 1999. Cumulative effective radiation dose estimates in this cohort range from 20 mSv to approximately 4 Sv. Rates of mortality and cancer mortality in the exposed group substantially exceeded those of the comparison group. Dose-response analyses within the exposed group confirmed a significant trend with dose for all solid cancers (P < 0.0001) and for digestive and respiratory cancers (P = 0.0255 and P < 0.0001), whereas no consistent dose-response trend was found for all causes of death (P = 0.4296). Regarding specific cancer sites, a significant trend with dose was observed for lung cancer (P = 0.0001), stomach cancer (P = 0.0050), and female breast cancer (P = 0.0040) as well as for esophagus cancer in women (P = 0.0030). The excess relative risk per sievert for all solid cancers combined was 1.77 (1.35; 2.27) based on the total cohort data, yet a selection bias regarding the comparison group could not be entirely ruled out. The excess relative risk per sievert based on the cohort's exposed group was 0.81 (0.46; 1.33) for all solid cancers combined and thus still exceeds current risk estimates from the Life Span Study. Future epidemiological assessments based on this cohort will benefit from extension of follow-up and ongoing validation of dosimetric data.

Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

PubMed

Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2015-09-21

Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

[Lesions Detected in Six Spanish Colorectal Cancer Screening Population Based Programmes. CRIBEA Project. Spain].

PubMed

Portillo Villares, Isabel; Arana-Arri, Eunate; Idigoras Rubio, Isabel; Espinás Piñol, Josep Alfons; Pérez Riquelme, Francisco; de la Vega Prieto, Mariola; González Aledo, Alvaro; Oceja Setien, Elena; Vanaclocha Espi, Mercedes; Ibáñez Cabanell, Josefa; Salas Trejo, Dolores

2017-02-20

In this study, the results of six Colorectal Cancer Screening Population Programmes are shown (Catalonia, Valence, Murcia, Cantabria, the Basque Country and the Canary Islands collected between 2005 and 2012. These programmes use the faeces occult blood test (FOBt) biennial. Objective: To determine and compare the results of lesions detected by the programmes, participation, sex, age and test used. Retrospective cohort study based on people invited, aged between 50-74 years, in at least a complete round. Lesions considered: Advanced Adenomas (AA), Colorectal Invasive Cancer (CRC) and both of them, known as Advanced Neoplasia (AN). Logistic Regression and time trends are used. 1,995,719 of invitations registered, with an average participation-rate of 46.7%. 21,228 Advanced Neoplasias (2,813 CRC and 18,415 AA). Differences in detection rates observed between programmes (varying from 15.1‰ to 35.8‰ between participants). Participation rates were related to lesions' detection rates (OR 1.25 in 40-60% of participation). . Inmunochemical qualitative test showed an OR of 4.79 and quantitative test an OR of 7.30 over the guaiac test. Men showed an OR of 2.73 with respect to women. In 2012 the Advanced Neoplasia rate for women and men was 33.1 and 14.2 by 1,000 participants. The test used was the most important factor for detecting lesions. Time trends showed an increase in detected lesions caused by the change of the type of test in 2010.

Monitoring HIV Testing in the United States: Consequences of Methodology Changes to National Surveys

PubMed Central

Van Handel, Michelle M.; Branson, Bernard M.

2015-01-01

Objective In 2011, the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), an in-person household interview, revised the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) section of the survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a telephone-based survey, added cellphone numbers to its sampling frame. We sought to determine how these changes might affect assessment of HIV testing trends. Methods We used linear regression with pairwise contrasts with 2003-2013 data from NHIS and BRFSS to compare percentages of persons aged 18-64 years who reported HIV testing in landline versus cellphone-only households before and after 2011, when NHIS revised its in-person questionnaire and BRFSS added cellphone numbers to its telephone-based sample. Results In NHIS, the percentage of persons in cellphone-only households increased 13-fold from 2003 to 2013. The percentage ever tested for HIV was 6%–10% higher among persons in cellphone-only than landline households. The percentage ever tested for HIV increased significantly from 40.2% in 2003 to 45.0% in 2010, but was significantly lower in 2011 (40.6%) and 2012 (39.7%). In BRFSS, the percentage ever tested decreased significantly from 45.9% in 2003 to 40.2% in 2010, but increased to 42.9% in 2011 and 43.5% in 2013. Conclusions HIV testing estimates were lower after NHIS questionnaire changes but higher after BRFSS methodology changes. Data before and after 2011 are not comparable, complicating assessment of trends. PMID:25927983

Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Abd Rahim, Norhan

2018-05-01

The presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations can lead to considerable change in significance of trend in hydro-climatic time series. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider autocorrelations became a questionable issue. The spatial patterns in the trends of annual and seasonal temperature, rainfall, and related extremes in Egypt have been assessed in this paper using modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) trend test which can detect unidirectional trends in time series in the presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations. The trends obtained using the MMK test was compared with that obtained using standard Mann-Kendall (MK) test to show how natural variability in climate affects the trends. The daily rainfall and temperature data of Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing for the period 1948-2010 having a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° was used for this purpose. The results showed a large difference between the trends obtained using MMK and MK tests. The MMK test showed increasing trends in temperature and a number of temperature extremes in Egypt, but almost no change in rainfall and rainfall extremes. The minimum temperature was found to increase (0.08-0.29 °C/decade) much faster compared to maximum temperature (0.07-0.24 °C/decade) and therefore, a decrease in diurnal temperature range (- 0.01 to - 0.16 °C/decade) in most part of Egypt. The number of winter hot days and nights are increasing, while the number of cold days is decreasing in most part of the country. The study provides a more realistic scenario of the changes in climate and weather extremes of Egypt.

Remote control missile model test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Jerry M.; Shaw, David S.; Sawyer, Wallace C.

1989-01-01

An extremely large, systematic, axisymmetric body/tail fin data base was gathered through tests of an innovative missile model design which is described herein. These data were originally obtained for incorporation into a missile aerodynamics code based on engineering methods (Program MISSILE3), but can also be used as diagnostic test cases for developing computational methods because of the individual-fin data included in the data base. Detailed analysis of four sample cases from these data are presented to illustrate interesting individual-fin force and moment trends. These samples quantitatively show how bow shock, fin orientation, fin deflection, and body vortices can produce strong, unusual, and computationally challenging effects on individual fin loads. Comparisons between these data and calculations from the SWINT Euler code are also presented.

An operational definition of a statistically meaningful trend.

PubMed

Bryhn, Andreas C; Dimberg, Peter H

2011-04-28

Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r(2) and p values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r(2) ≥ 0.65 at p ≤ 0.05 in any of these regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors. The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on.

Empirical Prediction of Aircraft Landing Gear Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Robert A. (Technical Monitor); Guo, Yue-Ping

2005-01-01

This report documents a semi-empirical/semi-analytical method for landing gear noise prediction. The method is based on scaling laws of the theory of aerodynamic noise generation and correlation of these scaling laws with current available test data. The former gives the method a sound theoretical foundation and the latter quantitatively determines the relations between the parameters of the landing gear assembly and the far field noise, enabling practical predictions of aircraft landing gear noise, both for parametric trends and for absolute noise levels. The prediction model is validated by wind tunnel test data for an isolated Boeing 737 landing gear and by flight data for the Boeing 777 airplane. In both cases, the predictions agree well with data, both in parametric trends and in absolute noise levels.

Can time-dependent density functional theory predict intersystem crossing in organic chromophores? A case study on benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules.

PubMed

Tam, Teck Lip Dexter; Lin, Ting Ting; Chua, Ming Hui

2017-06-21

Here we utilized new diagnostic tools in time-dependent density functional theory to explain the trend of intersystem crossing in benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules. These molecules display a wide range of fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields, making them excellent candidates for testing the validity of these diagnostic tools. We believe that these tools are cost-effective and can be applied to structurally similar organic chromophores to predict/explain the trends of intersystem crossing, and thus fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields without the use of complex and expensive multireference configuration interaction or multireference pertubation theory methods.

Direct Contra Naïve-Indirect Comparison of Clinical Failure Rates between High-Viscosity GIC and Conventional Amalgam Restorations: An Empirical Study

PubMed Central

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Background Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions’ evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. Methods A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Results Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann–Whitney U  =  25, nindirect  =  26; ndirect  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). Conclusion The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates. PMID:24205220

Direct contra naïve-indirect comparison of clinical failure rates between high-viscosity GIC and conventional amalgam restorations: an empirical study.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions' evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann-Whitney U  =  25, n(indirect)  =  26; n(direct)  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates.

Attrition and Retention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brasher, Daniel E.; And Others

Trends in beginning freshmen attrition were studied at the University of Tennessee, Martin, for the fall quarters of 1977, 1978, and 1979. One part of the attrition study used the American College Testing (ACT) program's withdrawing/nonreturning student survey, while a second approach was based on the computerized People Oriented Information…

The Genius of Everyman (1): Discovering Creativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglas, John H.

1977-01-01

Discusses latest trends in creativity research, including development of tests independent of I.Q., correlations of creativity with mental illness, physiological bases for creativity (brain wave comparisons), and follow-up research on successful physicians and scientists. The need for means to identify creatively "gifted" children is stressed. (CS)

Taming Inflation Is Never Easy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braun, Henry

2015-01-01

Many states have implemented, or are implementing, accountability systems for schools and educators that incorporate test-based indicators. There is substantial disagreement on the merits of this trend, but the general consensus appears to be that value-added scores or median (mean) growth percentiles contain useful information with respect to…

Trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River, southeastern Arizona, and regional trends in precipitation and streamflow in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Blakemore E.; Pool, Don R.

2006-01-01

This study was done to improve the understanding of trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Annual streamflow of the river at Charleston, Arizona, has decreased by more than 50 percent during the 20th century. The San Pedro River is one of the few remaining free-flowing perennial streams in the arid Southwestern United States, and the riparian forest along the river supports several endangered species and is an important habitat for migratory birds. Trends in seasonal and annual precipitation and streamflow were evaluated for surrounding areas in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico to provide a regional perspective for the trends of the San Pedro River. Seasonal and annual streamflow trends and the relation between precipitation and streamflow in the San Pedro River Basin were evaluated to improve the understanding of the causes of trends. There were few significant trends in seasonal and annual precipitation or streamflow for the regional study area. Precipitation and streamflow records were analyzed for 11 time periods ranging from 1930 to 2002; no significant trends were found in 92 percent of the trend tests for precipitation, and no significant trends were found in 79 percent of the trend tests for streamflow. For the trends in precipitation that were significant, 90 percent were positive and most of those positive trends were in records of winter, spring, or annual precipitation that started during the mid-century drought in 1945-60. For the trends in streamflow that were significant, about half were positive and half were negative. Trends in precipitation in the San Pedro River Basin were similar to regional precipitation trends for spring and fall values and were different for summer and annual values. The largest difference was in annual precipitation, for which no trend tests were significant in the San Pedro River Basin, and 23 percent of the trend tests were significantly positive in the rest of the study area. Streamflow trends for the San Pedro River were different from regional streamflow trends. All seasonal flows for the San Pedro River, except winter flows, had significant decreasing trends, and seasonal flows for most streams in the rest of the study area had either no trend or a significant increasing trend. Two streams adjacent to the San Pedro River Basin (Whitewater Draw and Santa Cruz River), however, had significant decreasing trends in summer streamflow. Factors that caused the decreasing trends in streamflow of the San Pedro River at Charleston were investigated. Possible factors were fluctuations in precipitation and air temperature, changes in watershed characteristics, human activities, or changes in seasonal distribution of bank storage. This study statistically removed or accounted for the variation in streamflow caused by fluctuations in precipitation. Thus, the remaining variation or trend in streamflow was caused by factors other than precipitation. Two methods were used to partition the variation in streamflow and to determine trends in the partitioned variation: (1) regression analysis between precipitation and streamflow using all years in the record and evaluation of time trends in regression residuals, and (2) development of regression equations between precipitation and streamflow for three time periods (early, middle, and late parts of the record) and testing to determine if the three regression equations were significantly different. The methods were applied to monthly values of total flow (average flow) and storm runoff (maximum daily mean flow) for 1913-2002, and to monthly values of low flow (3-day low flow) for 1931-2002. Statistical tests provide strong evidence that factors other than precipitation caused a decrease in streamflow of the San Pedro River. Factors other than precipitation caused significant decreasing trends in streamflows for late spring through early winter and did not cause significant trends f

Testing for intracycle determinism in pseudoperiodic time series.

PubMed

Coelho, Mara C S; Mendes, Eduardo M A M; Aguirre, Luis A

2008-06-01

A determinism test is proposed based on the well-known method of the surrogate data. Assuming predictability to be a signature of determinism, the proposed method checks for intracycle (e.g., short-term) determinism in the pseudoperiodic time series for which standard methods of surrogate analysis do not apply. The approach presented is composed of two steps. First, the data are preprocessed to reduce the effects of seasonal and trend components. Second, standard tests of surrogate analysis can then be used. The determinism test is applied to simulated and experimental pseudoperiodic time series and the results show the applicability of the proposed test.

Trends in pesticide concentrations in corn-belt streams, 1996-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Daniel J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Lorenz, David L.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

Trends in the concentrations of commonly occurring pesticides in the Corn Belt of the United States were assessed, and the performance and application of several statistical methods for trend analysis were evaluated. Trends in the concentrations of 11 pesticides with sufficient data for trend assessment were assessed at up to 31 stream sites for two time periods: 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Pesticides included in the trend analyses were atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, simazine, metribuzin, prometon, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon.The statistical methods applied and compared were (1) a modified version of the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test (SEAKEN), (2) a modified version of the Regional Kendall test, (3) a parametric regression model with seasonal wave (SEAWAVE), and (4) a version of SEAWAVE with adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q). The SEAKEN test is a statistical hypothesis test for detecting monotonic trends in seasonal time-series data such as pesticide concentrations at a particular site. Trends across a region, represented by multiple sites, were evaluated using the regional seasonal Kendall test, which computes a test for an overall trend within a region by computing a score for each season at each site and adding the scores to compute the total for the region. The SEAWAVE model is a parametric regression model specifically designed for analyzing seasonal variability and trends in pesticide concentrations. The SEAWAVE-Q model accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic trends from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use.There was broad, general agreement between unadjusted trends (no adjustment for streamflow effects) identified by the SEAKEN and SEAWAVE methods, including the regional seasonal Kendall test. Only about 10 percent of the paired comparisons between SEAKEN and SEAWAVE indicated a difference in the direction of trend, and none of these had differences significant at the 10-percent significance level. This consistency of results supports the validity and robustness of all three approaches as trend analysis tools. The SEAWAVE method is favored, however, because it has less restrictive data requirements, enabling analysis for more site/pesticide combinations, and can incorporate adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q) with substantially fewer measurements than the flow-adjustment procedure used with SEAKEN.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends is preferable to analysis of non-adjusted trends for evaluating potential effects of changes in pesticide use or management practices because flow-adjusted trends account for the influence of flow-related variability.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends by SEAWAVE-Q showed that all of the pesticides assessed, except simazine and acetochlor, were dominated by varying degrees of concentration downtrends in one or both analysis periods. Atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin—all major corn herbicides, as well as prometon and chlorpyrifos, showed more prevalent concentration downtrends during 1996–2002 compared to 2000–2006. Diazinon had no clear trends during 1996–2002, but had predominantly downward trends during 2000–2006. Acetochlor trends were mixed during 1996–2002 and slightly upward during 2000–2006, but most of the trends were not statistically significant. Simazine concentrations trended upward at most sites during both 1996–2002 and 2000–2006.Comparison of concentration trends to agricultural-use trends indicated similarity in direction and magnitude for acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin. Concentration downtrends for atrazine, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon were steeper than agricultural-use downtrends at some sites, indicating the possibility that agricultural management practices may have increasingly reduced transport to streams (particularly atrazine) or, for chlorpyrifos and diazinon, that nonagricultural uses declined substantially. Concentration uptrends for simazine generally were steeper than agricultural-use uptrends, indicating the possibility that nonagricultural uses of this herbicide increased during the study period.

Nature's style: Naturally trendy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, T.A.; Lins, H.F.

2005-01-01

Hydroclimatological time series often exhibit trends. While trend magnitude can be determined with little ambiguity, the corresponding statistical significance, sometimes cited to bolster scientific and political argument, is less certain because significance depends critically on the null hypothesis which in turn reflects subjective notions about what one expects to see. We consider statistical trend tests of hydroclimatological data in the presence of long-term persistence (LTP). Monte Carlo experiments employing FARIMA models indicate that trend tests which fail to consider LTP greatly overstate the statistical significance of observed trends when LTP is present. A new test is presented that avoids this problem. From a practical standpoint, however, it may be preferable to acknowledge that the concept of statistical significance is meaningless when discussing poorly understood systems.

Nature's style: Naturally trendy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lins, Harry F.

2005-12-01

Hydroclimatological time series often exhibit trends. While trend magnitude can be determined with little ambiguity, the corresponding statistical significance, sometimes cited to bolster scientific and political argument, is less certain because significance depends critically on the null hypothesis which in turn reflects subjective notions about what one expects to see. We consider statistical trend tests of hydroclimatological data in the presence of long-term persistence (LTP). Monte Carlo experiments employing FARIMA models indicate that trend tests which fail to consider LTP greatly overstate the statistical significance of observed trends when LTP is present. A new test is presented that avoids this problem. From a practical standpoint, however, it may be preferable to acknowledge that the concept of statistical significance is meaningless when discussing poorly understood systems.

HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

2014-05-01

The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of good status. Bourgine B. et al. 2012, Ninth International Geostatistics Congress, Oslo, Norway June 11 - 15. Lopez B. et al. 2011, Final Report BRGM/RP-59515-FR. 166p.

[Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China during 1960-2014].

PubMed

Ma, Qi Yun; Zhang, Ji Quan; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Feng; Dong, Zhen Hua; A, Lu Si

2017-06-18

Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy-sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P) and warm spell duration (WSDI) representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Meanwhile, frost days (FD0), cold days (TX10P), cold nights (TN10P) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI) were clearly greater than those of warm indices (SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI), and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RX5D, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial difference between the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

Trends in laboratory test volumes for Medicare Part B reimbursements, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Shahangian, Shahram; Alspach, Todd D; Astles, J Rex; Yesupriya, Ajay; Dettwyler, William K

2014-02-01

Changes in reimbursements for clinical laboratory testing may help us assess the effect of various variables, such as testing recommendations, market forces, changes in testing technology, and changes in clinical or laboratory practices, and provide information that can influence health care and public health policy decisions. To date, however, there has been no report, to our knowledge, of longitudinal trends in national laboratory test use. To evaluate Medicare Part B-reimbursed volumes of selected laboratory tests per 10,000 enrollees from 2000 through 2010. Laboratory test reimbursement volumes per 10,000 enrollees in Medicare Part B were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (Baltimore, Maryland). The ratio of the most recent (2010) reimbursed test volume per 10,000 Medicare enrollees, divided by the oldest data (usually 2000) during this decade, called the volume ratio, was used to measure trends in test reimbursement. Laboratory tests with a reimbursement claim frequency of at least 10 per 10,000 Medicare enrollees in 2010 were selected, provided there was more than a 50% change in test reimbursement volume during the 2000-2010 decade. We combined the reimbursed test volumes for the few tests that were listed under more than one code in the Current Procedural Terminology (American Medical Association, Chicago, Illinois). A 2-sided Poisson regression, adjusted for potential overdispersion, was used to determine P values for the trend; trends were considered significant at P < .05. Tests with the greatest decrease in reimbursement volumes were electrolytes, digoxin, carbamazepine, phenytoin, and lithium, with volume ratios ranging from 0.27 to 0.64 (P < .001). Tests with the greatest increase in reimbursement volumes were meprobamate, opiates, methadone, phencyclidine, amphetamines, cocaine, and vitamin D, with volume ratios ranging from 83 to 1510 (P < .001). Although reimbursement volumes increased for most of the selected tests, other tests exhibited statistically significant downward trends in annual reimbursement volumes. The observed changes in reimbursement volumes may be explained by disease prevalence and severity, patterns of drug use, clinical or laboratory practices, and testing recommendations and guidelines, among others. These data may be useful to policy makers, health systems researchers, laboratory directors, and industry scientists to understand, address, and anticipate trends in laboratory testing in the Medicare population.

Gender-based screening for chlamydial infection and divergent infection trends in men and women.

PubMed

Rogers, Susan M; Turner, Charles F; Miller, William C; Erbelding, Emily; Eggleston, Elizabeth; Tan, Sylvia; Roman, Anthony; Hobbs, Marcia; Chromy, James; Muvva, Ravikiran; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana

2014-01-01

To assess the potential impact of chlamydial screening policy that recommends routine screening of women but not men. Population surveys of probability samples of Baltimore adults aged 18 to 35 years in 1997-1998 and 2006-2009 collected biospecimens to estimate trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection. Survey estimates are compared to surveillance data on diagnosed chlamydial infections reported to the Health Department. Prevalence of undiagnosed chlamydial infection among men increased from 1.6% to 4.0%, but it declined from 4.3% to 3.1% among women (p = 0.028 for test of interaction). The annual (average) number of diagnosed infections was substantially higher among women than men in both time periods and increased among both men and women. Undiagnosed infection prevalence was substantially higher among black than non-black adults (4.0% vs 1.2%, p = 0.042 in 1997-98 and 5.5% vs 0.7%, p<0.001 in 2006-09). Divergent trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection by gender parallel divergent screening recommendations that encourage chlamydial testing for women but not for men.

Is breast compression associated with breast cancer detection and other early performance measures in a population-based breast cancer screening program?

PubMed

Moshina, Nataliia; Sebuødegård, Sofie; Hofvind, Solveig

2017-06-01

We aimed to investigate early performance measures in a population-based breast cancer screening program stratified by compression force and pressure at the time of mammographic screening examination. Early performance measures included recall rate, rates of screen-detected and interval breast cancers, positive predictive value of recall (PPV), sensitivity, specificity, and histopathologic characteristics of screen-detected and interval breast cancers. Information on 261,641 mammographic examinations from 93,444 subsequently screened women was used for analyses. The study period was 2007-2015. Compression force and pressure were categorized using tertiles as low, medium, or high. χ 2 test, t tests, and test for trend were used to examine differences between early performance measures across categories of compression force and pressure. We applied generalized estimating equations to identify the odds ratios (OR) of screen-detected or interval breast cancer associated with compression force and pressure, adjusting for fibroglandular and/or breast volume and age. The recall rate decreased, while PPV and specificity increased with increasing compression force (p for trend <0.05 for all). The recall rate increased, while rate of screen-detected cancer, PPV, sensitivity, and specificity decreased with increasing compression pressure (p for trend <0.05 for all). High compression pressure was associated with higher odds of interval breast cancer compared with low compression pressure (1.89; 95% CI 1.43-2.48). High compression force and low compression pressure were associated with more favorable early performance measures in the screening program.

Statistical Summary of Missouri Higher Education, 1996-1997.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Missouri Coordinating Board for Higher Education, Jefferson City.

Extensive data tables on higher education in Missouri present information on: the academic preparation of college freshmen (fall 1996), including distribution of American College Testing (ACT) scores and high school rankings; tuition, fees, and financial aid (state and federal, by aid type, including merit-based scholarships) and trends;…

Missouri Higher Education: 1995-1996 Statistical Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Missouri State Coordinating Board for Higher Education, Jefferson City.

Extensive data tables on higher education in Missouri present information on: the academic preparation of college freshmen (fall 1995), including distribution of American College Testing (ACT) scores and high school rankings; tuition, fees, and financial aid (state and federal, by aid type, including merit-based scholarships) and trends;…

EVALUATING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO FORECASTED LAND-USE CHANGE: SCENARIO TESTING WITH THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

It is currently possible to measure landscape change over large areas and determine trends in environmental condition using advanced space-based technologies accompanied by geospatial analyses of the remotely sensed data. There are numerous earth-observing satellite platforms fo...

Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.

2013-01-01

This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States.

Evaluation of Alternative Altitude Scaling Methods for Thermal Ice Protection System in NASA Icing Research Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Sam; Addy, Harold E. Jr.; Broeren, Andy P.; Orchard, David M.

2017-01-01

A test was conducted at NASA Icing Research Tunnel to evaluate altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protection system. Two new scaling methods based on Weber number were compared against a method based on Reynolds number. The results generally agreed with the previous set of tests conducted in NRCC Altitude Icing Wind Tunnel where the three methods of scaling were also tested and compared along with reference (altitude) icing conditions. In those tests, the Weber number-based scaling methods yielded results much closer to those observed at the reference icing conditions than the Reynolds number-based icing conditions. The test in the NASA IRT used a much larger, asymmetric airfoil with an ice protection system that more closely resembled designs used in commercial aircraft. Following the trends observed during the AIWT tests, the Weber number based scaling methods resulted in smaller runback ice than the Reynolds number based scaling, and the ice formed farther upstream. The results show that the new Weber number based scaling methods, particularly the Weber number with water loading scaling, continue to show promise for ice protection system development and evaluation in atmospheric icing tunnels.

2011 Asian Geographic Trend Report for GMAT[R] Examinees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graduate Management Admission Council, 2012

2012-01-01

The Asian Geographic Trend Report presents trends in the student pipeline for graduate management education. Examination of data collected from respondents taking the Graduate Management Admission Test[R] (GMAT[R]) during the 2007 and 2011 testing years (TY) and from the requested destination of their score reports forms the basis of this report.…

2011 World Geographic Trend Report for GMAT[R] Examinees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graduate Management Admission Council, 2012

2012-01-01

The World Geographic Trend Report presents trends in the student pipeline for graduate management education. Examination of data collected from respondents taking the Graduate Management Admission Test[R](GMAT[R]) during the 2007 and 2011 testing years (TY) and from the destination of their score reports forms the basis for this report. The GMAT…

2011 North American Geographic Trend Report for GMAT[R] Examinees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graduate Management Admission Council, 2012

2012-01-01

The North American Geographic Trend Report presents trends in the student pipeline for graduate management education. Examination of data collected from respondents taking the Graduate Management Admission Test[R] (GMAT[R]) during the 2007 and 2011 testing years (TY) and from the requested destination of their score reports forms the basis of this…

Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.

Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extreme events in China during 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yuehong; Wu, Junmei; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Yonghe

2015-08-01

This study investigates frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on annual maximum of daily precipitation (AMP) data of 753 observation stations in China during the period 1951-2010. Several statistical methods including L-moments, Mann-Kendall test (MK test), Student's t test ( t test) and analysis of variance ( F-test) are used to study different statistical properties related to frequency and spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites have no linear trends at 90 % confidence level, but there is a distinctive decrease trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The analysis of abrupt changes shows that there are no significant changes in most sites, and no distinctive regional patterns within the mutation sites either. An important innovation different from the previous studies is the shift in the mean and the variance which are also studied in this paper in order to further analyze the changes of strong and weak precipitation extreme events. The shift analysis shows that we should pay more attention to the drought in North China and to the flood control and drought in South China, especially to those regions that have no clear trend and have a significant shift in the variance. More important, this study conducts the comprehensive analysis of a complete set of quantile estimates and its spatiotemporal characteristic in China. Spatial distribution of quantile estimation based on the AMP series demonstrated that the values gradually increased from the Northwest to the Southeast with the increment of duration and return period, while the increasing rate of estimation is smooth in the arid and semiarid region and is rapid in humid region. Frequency estimates of 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of AMP series in the most stations, which can provide more quantitative and scientific basis for decision making.

Nonparametric evaluation of birth cohort trends in disease rates.

PubMed

Tarone, R E; Chu, K C

2000-01-01

Although interpretation of age-period-cohort analyses is complicated by the non-identifiability of maximum likelihood estimates, changes in the slope of the birth-cohort effect curve are identifiable and have potential aetiologic significance. A nonparametric test for a change in the slope of the birth-cohort trend has been developed. The test is a generalisation of the sign test and is based on permutational distributions. A method for identifying interactions between age and calendar-period effects is also presented. The nonparametric method is shown to be powerful in detecting changes in the slope of the birth-cohort trend, although its power can be reduced considerably by calendar-period patterns of risk. The method identifies a previously unidentified decrease in the birth-cohort risk of lung-cancer mortality from 1912 to 1919, which appears to reflect a reduction in the initiation of smoking by young men at the beginning of the Great Depression (1930s). The method also detects an interaction between age and calendar period in leukemia mortality rates, reflecting the better response of children to chemotherapy. The proposed nonparametric method provides a data analytic approach, which is a useful adjunct to log-linear Poisson analysis of age-period-cohort models, either in the initial model building stage, or in the final interpretation stage.

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

1996-01-01

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

Incorporating Nonstationarity into IDF Curves across CONUS from Station Records and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are widely used for engineering design of storm-affected structures. Current practice is that IDF-curves are based on observed precipitation extremes fit to a stationary probability distribution (e.g., the extreme value family). However, there is increasing evidence of nonstationarity in station records. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend test to over 1000 stations across the CONUS at a 0.05 significance level, and find that about 30% of stations test have significant nonstationarity for at least one duration (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, and 48-hours). We fit the stations to a GEV distribution with time-varying location and scale parameters using a Bayesian- methodology and compare the fit of stationary versus nonstationary GEV distributions to observed precipitation extremes. Within our fitted nonstationary GEV distributions, we compare distributions with a time-varying location parameter versus distributions with both time-varying location and scale parameters. For distributions with two time-varying parameters, we pay particular attention to instances where location and scale trends have opposing directions. Finally, we use the mathematical framework based on work of Koutsoyiannis to generate IDF curves based on the fitted GEV distributions and discuss the implications that using time-varying parameters may have on simple scaling relationships. We apply the above methods to evaluate how frequency statistics based on a stationary assumption compare to those that incorporate nonstationarity for both short and long term projects. Overall, we find that neglecting nonstationarity can lead to under- or over-estimates (depending on the trend for the given duration and region) of important statistics such as the design storm.

Learning to control an SSVEP-based BCI speller in naïve subjects.

PubMed

Zhihua Tang; Yijun Wang; Guoya Dong; Weihua Pei; Hongda Chen

2017-07-01

High-speed steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP)-based brain-computer interface (BCI) has been demonstrated in several recent studies. This study aimed to investigate some issues regarding feasibility of learning to control an SSVEP-based BCI speller in naïve subjects. An experiment with new BCI users was designed to answer the following questions: (1) How many people can use the SSVEP-BCI speller? (2) How much time is required to train the user? (3) Does continuous system use lead to user fatigue and deteriorated BCI performance? The experiment consisted of three tasks including a 40-class BCI spelling task, a psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) task, and a test of sleepiness scale. Subjects' reaction time (RT) in the PVT task and the fatigue rank in the sleepiness scale test were used as objective and subjective parameters to evaluate subjects' alertness level. Among 11 naïve subjects, 10 of them fulfilled the 9-block experiment. Four of them showed clear learning effects (i.e., an increasing trend of classification accuracy and information transfer rate (ITR)) over time. The remaining subjects showed stable BCI performance during the whole experiment. The results of RT and fatigue rank showed a gradually increasing trend, which is not significant across blocks. In summary, the results of this study suggest that controlling an SSVEP-based BCI speller is in general feasible to learn by naïve subjects after a short training procedure, showing no clear performance deterioration related to fatigue.

Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983-2007.

PubMed

Zhang, Ju; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Miao, Hong; Wang, Xiaoke

2011-01-01

The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980's using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends: a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate (TSP), as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy efficiency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.

Prevalence and trends of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Djibouti, testing an alternative method.

PubMed

Trébucq, A; Guérin, N; Ali Ismael, H; Bernatas, J J; Sèvre, J P; Rieder, H L

2005-10-01

Djibouti, 1994 and 2001. To estimate the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and average annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) and trends, and to test a new method for calculations. Tuberculin surveys among schoolchildren and sputum smear-positive TB patients. Prevalence of infection was calculated using cut-off points, the mirror image technique, mixture analysis, and a new method based on the operating characteristics of the tuberculin test. Test sensitivity was derived from tuberculin reactions among TB patients and test specificity from a comparison of reaction size distributions among children with and without a BCG scar. The ARTI was estimated to lie between 2.6% and 3.1%, with no significant changes between 1994 and 2001. The close match of the distributions between children tested in 1994 and patients justifies the utilisation of the latter to determine test sensitivity. This new method gave very consistent estimates of prevalence of infection for any induration for values between 15 and 20 mm. Specificity was successfully determined for 1994, but not for 2001. Mixture analysis confirmed the estimates obtained with the new method. Djibouti has a high ARTI, and no apparent change over the observation time was found. Using operating test characteristics to estimate prevalence of infection looks promising.

Analysis of longitudinal "time series" data in toxicology.

PubMed

Cox, C; Cory-Slechta, D A

1987-02-01

Studies focusing on chronic toxicity or on the time course of toxicant effect often involve repeated measurements or longitudinal observations of endpoints of interest. Experimental design considerations frequently necessitate between-group comparisons of the resulting trends. Typically, procedures such as the repeated-measures analysis of variance have been used for statistical analysis, even though the required assumptions may not be satisfied in some circumstances. This paper describes an alternative analytical approach which summarizes curvilinear trends by fitting cubic orthogonal polynomials to individual profiles of effect. The resulting regression coefficients serve as quantitative descriptors which can be subjected to group significance testing. Randomization tests based on medians are proposed to provide a comparison of treatment and control groups. Examples from the behavioral toxicology literature are considered, and the results are compared to more traditional approaches, such as repeated-measures analysis of variance.

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

1985-01-01

The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

D'Antoni, Hector L.; Schaebitz, Frank

1995-01-01

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

Drought analysis and water resource availability using standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui-Mean, Foo; Yusop, Zulkifli; Yusof, Fadhilah

2018-03-01

Trend analysis for potential evapotranspiration (PET) and climatic water balance (CWB) is critical in identifying the wetness or dryness episodes with respect to the water surplus or deficit. The PET is computed based on the monthly average temperature for the entire Peninsular Malaysia using Thornthwaite parameterization. The trends and slope's magnitude for the PET and CWB were then investigated using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Thiel-Sen estimator. The 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is applied to determine the drought episodes and the average recurrence interval are calculated based on the SPEI. The results indicate that most of the stations show an upward trend in annual and monthly PET while majority of the regions show an upward trend in annual CWB except for the Pahang state. The increasing trends detected in the CWB describe water is in excess especially during the northeast monsoons while the decreasing trends imply water insufficiency. The excess water is observed mostly in January especially in the west coast, east coast and southwest regions that suggest more water is available for crop requirement. The average recurrence interval for drought episodes is almost the same for the smaller severity with various time scale of SPEI and high probability of drought occurrence is observed for some regions. The findings are useful for policymakers and practitioners to improve water resources planning and management, in particular to minimise drought effects in the future. Future research shall address the influence of topography on drought behaviour using more meteorological stations and to include east Malaysia in the analysis.

Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

On summary measure analysis of linear trend repeated measures data: performance comparison with two competing methods.

PubMed

Vossoughi, Mehrdad; Ayatollahi, S M T; Towhidi, Mina; Ketabchi, Farzaneh

2012-03-22

The summary measure approach (SMA) is sometimes the only applicable tool for the analysis of repeated measurements in medical research, especially when the number of measurements is relatively large. This study aimed to describe techniques based on summary measures for the analysis of linear trend repeated measures data and then to compare performances of SMA, linear mixed model (LMM), and unstructured multivariate approach (UMA). Practical guidelines based on the least squares regression slope and mean of response over time for each subject were provided to test time, group, and interaction effects. Through Monte Carlo simulation studies, the efficacy of SMA vs. LMM and traditional UMA, under different types of covariance structures, was illustrated. All the methods were also employed to analyze two real data examples. Based on the simulation and example results, it was found that the SMA completely dominated the traditional UMA and performed convincingly close to the best-fitting LMM in testing all the effects. However, the LMM was not often robust and led to non-sensible results when the covariance structure for errors was misspecified. The results emphasized discarding the UMA which often yielded extremely conservative inferences as to such data. It was shown that summary measure is a simple, safe and powerful approach in which the loss of efficiency compared to the best-fitting LMM was generally negligible. The SMA is recommended as the first choice to reliably analyze the linear trend data with a moderate to large number of measurements and/or small to moderate sample sizes.

Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

2018-05-01

Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

Satellite and Model Assessment of Regional Aerosol Trends and Potential Impacts on Clouds in the western North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongeward, A.; Li, Z.

2014-12-01

Aerosols and clouds contribute to atmospheric variability and to Earth's radiative balance, and while aerosol-cloud interactions have been studied in the past, long-term assessments of their regional interactions are only beginning to be realized. Changes in emissions and air quality policies as well as socioeconomic factors ultimately lead to changes in AOD (aerosol optical depth) with cascading effects on clouds and ultimately on the combined radiative effects where agreement is yet to be seen. In this work, an assessment of any trends observed in the aerosol loading over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the period of 2000 to 2012 is presented. Monthly mean data from NASA's MODIS instruments onboard both Terra and Aqua satellites are employed. Two aerosol models (GOCART and MERRAero) with the capability to model five individual aerosol species are also used and can separate anthropogenic from natural contributions to the total aerosol load and the aerosol trend. Preliminary results show two distinct regions of opposite trend in the satellite AOD over the western North Atlantic. From analysis of the model trends, the trends in these two regions are also of different origin: the negative AOD trend (ranging from -0.020 to -0.040 per decade) seen just off the eastern coast of the U.S. is of anthropogenic origin while the positive AOD trend (ranging from 0.015 to 0.030 per decade) seen in the south of the domain is of natural origins. Compelling evidence from a ground-based aerosol record (AERONET) as well as EPA emissions records corroborates the anthropogenic origin of the negative trend off the eastern U.S. coast. Finally, any trends seen in the cloud effective radius are explored to examine the presence of the first indirect effect (Twomey effect). The analysis from Aqua appears stronger and more coherent, likely a testament to its calibration stability relative to Terra. Statistical significance tests are performed for the 90% and 95% levels using the Student's t-test. This research can not only provided information for modeling and validation studies of aerosol trends but also act as an initial study into the long-term impacts of air quality improvement policies on the aerosol field, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the combined complex radiative effects.

Testing for genetic association taking into account phenotypic information of relatives.

PubMed

Uh, Hae-Won; Wijk, Henk Jan van der; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine J

2009-12-15

We investigated efficient case-control association analysis using family data. The outcome of interest was coronary heart disease. We employed existing and new methods that take into account the correlations among related individuals to obtain the proper type I error rates. The methods considered for autosomal single-nucleotide polymorphisms were: 1) generalized estimating equations-based methods, 2) variance-modified Cochran-Armitage (MCA) trend test incorporating kinship coefficients, and 3) genotypic modified quasi-likelihood score test. Additionally, for X-linked single-nucleotide polymorphisms we proposed a two-degrees-of-freedom test. Performance of these methods was tested using Framingham Heart Study 500 k array data.

Corrosion of Candidate High Temperature Alloys in Supercritical Carbon Dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parks, Curtis J.

The corrosion resistance of three candidate alloys is tested in supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO2) at different levels of temperature and pressure for up to 3000 hours. The purpose of the testing is to evaluate the compatibility of different engineering alloys in S-CO2 for use in a S-CO 2 Brayton cycle. The three alloys used are austenitic stainless steel 316, iron-nickel-base superalloy 718, and nickel-base superalloy 738. Each alloy is exposed to four combinations of temperature and pressure, consisting of either 550°C or 700°C at either 15 or 25 MPa for up to 1500 hours. At each temperature, an additional sample set is tested for 3000 hours and experienced an increase in pressure from 15 MPa to 25 MPa after 1500 hours of testing. All three alloys are successful in producing a protective oxide layer at the lower temperature of 550°C based on the logarithmic weight gain trends. At the higher temperature of 700°C, 316SS exhibits unfavourable linear weight gain trends at both pressures of 15 and 25 MPa. In comparison, IN-718 and IN-738 performs similarly in producing a protective oxide layer illustrated through a power weight gain relation. The effect of pressure is most pronounced at the operating temperature of 700°C, where the higher pressure of 25 MPa results in an increased rate of oxide formation. SEM analysis exposes a thin film oxide for both IN-718 and IN-738 but severe intergranular corrosion is exhibited by IN-738. Based on the testing conducted, both alloys show favourable characteristics for use in S-CO 2 conditions up to 700°C, but further testing is required to characterize the effect of the intergranular corrosion on the stability of oxide in IN-738. 316SS provided favourable results for use in temperatures of 550°C, but the protective oxide deteriorated at an operating temperature of 700°C.

Business Planning in the Light of Neuro-fuzzy and Predictive Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakrabarti, Prasun; Basu, Jayanta Kumar; Kim, Tai-Hoon

In this paper we have pointed out gain sensing on forecast based techniques.We have cited an idea of neural based gain forecasting. Testing of sequence of gain pattern is also verifies using statsistical analysis of fuzzy value assignment. The paper also suggests realization of stable gain condition using K-Means clustering of data mining. A new concept of 3D based gain sensing has been pointed out. The paper also reveals what type of trend analysis can be observed for probabilistic gain prediction.

Reform of the College Entrance Examination: Ideology, Principles, and Policy Recommendations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Haifeng

2013-01-01

Reform of the College Entrance Examination is trending toward simultaneous unification and diversification. The objective of reforming the entrance exam is to establish a college enrollment examination system that is primarily based on a unified test, which would assess students' abilities, appraise them on multiple levels, and classify them.…

Get 'Em outside

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weise, Lisa

2012-01-01

There is a movement afoot in the nation--one that goes against the trend toward more testing, less recess, and too many standards to fit into the school day. This movement does not ignore standards; rather, it weaves the standards with the places and meanings that are ever-present outside of the classrooms. Place-based education connects students…

Huntington's disease predictive testing: the case for an assessment approach to requests from adolescents.

PubMed Central

Binedell, J; Soldan, J R; Scourfield, J; Harper, P S

1996-01-01

Adolescents who are actively requesting Huntington's predictive testing of their own accord pose a dilemma to those providing testing. In the absence of empirical evidence as regards the impact of genetic testing on minors, current policy and guidelines, based on the ethical principles of non-maleficence and respect for individual autonomy and confidentiality, generally exclude the testing of minors. It is argued that adherence to an age based exclusion criterion in Huntington's disease predictive testing protocols is out of step with trends in UK case law concerning minors' consent to medical treatment. Furthermore, contributions from developmental psychology and research into adolescents' decision making competence suggest that adolescents can make informed choices about their health and personal lives. Criteria for developing an assessment approach to such requests are put forward and the implications of a case by case evaluation of competence to consent in terms of clinicians' tolerance for uncertainty are discussed. PMID:8950670

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Properties of hypothesis testing techniques and (Bayesian) model selection for exploration-based and theory-based (order-restricted) hypotheses.

PubMed

Kuiper, Rebecca M; Nederhoff, Tim; Klugkist, Irene

2015-05-01

In this paper, the performance of six types of techniques for comparisons of means is examined. These six emerge from the distinction between the method employed (hypothesis testing, model selection using information criteria, or Bayesian model selection) and the set of hypotheses that is investigated (a classical, exploration-based set of hypotheses containing equality constraints on the means, or a theory-based limited set of hypotheses with equality and/or order restrictions). A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of these techniques. We demonstrate that, if one has specific, a priori specified hypotheses, confirmation (i.e., investigating theory-based hypotheses) has advantages over exploration (i.e., examining all possible equality-constrained hypotheses). Furthermore, examining reasonable order-restricted hypotheses has more power to detect the true effect/non-null hypothesis than evaluating only equality restrictions. Additionally, when investigating more than one theory-based hypothesis, model selection is preferred over hypothesis testing. Because of the first two results, we further examine the techniques that are able to evaluate order restrictions in a confirmatory fashion by examining their performance when the homogeneity of variance assumption is violated. Results show that the techniques are robust to heterogeneity when the sample sizes are equal. When the sample sizes are unequal, the performance is affected by heterogeneity. The size and direction of the deviations from the baseline, where there is no heterogeneity, depend on the effect size (of the means) and on the trend in the group variances with respect to the ordering of the group sizes. Importantly, the deviations are less pronounced when the group variances and sizes exhibit the same trend (e.g., are both increasing with group number). © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Comparisons of false negative rates from a trend test alone and from a trend test jointly with a control-high groups pairwise test in the determination of the carcinogenicity of new drugs.

PubMed

Lin, Karl K; Rahman, Mohammad A

2018-05-21

Interest has been expressed in using a joint test procedure that requires that the results of both a trend test and a pairwise comparison test between the control and the high groups be statistically significant simultaneously at the levels of significance recommended in the FDA 2001 draft guidance for industry document for the separate tests in order for the drug effect on the development of an individual tumor type to be considered as statistically significant. Results of our simulation studies show that there is a serious consequence of large inflations of the false negative rate through large decreases of false positive rate in the use of the above joint test procedure in the final interpretation of the carcinogenicity potential of a new drug if the levels of significance recommended for separate tests are used. The inflation can be as high as 204.5% of the false negative rate when the trend test alone is required to test if the effect is statistically significant. To correct the problem, new sets of levels of significance have also been developed for those who want to use the joint test in reviews of carcinogenicity studies.

Vaporization and Zonal Mixing in Performance Modeling of Advanced LOX-Methane Rockets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, George J., Jr.; Stiegemeier, Benjamin R.

2013-01-01

Initial modeling of LOX-Methane reaction control (RCE) 100 lbf thrusters and larger, 5500 lbf thrusters with the TDK/VIPER code has shown good agreement with sea-level and altitude test data. However, the vaporization and zonal mixing upstream of the compressible flow stage of the models leveraged empirical trends to match the sea-level data. This was necessary in part because the codes are designed primarily to handle the compressible part of the flow (i.e. contraction through expansion) and in part because there was limited data on the thrusters themselves on which to base a rigorous model. A more rigorous model has been developed which includes detailed vaporization trends based on element type and geometry, radial variations in mixture ratio within each of the "zones" associated with elements and not just between zones of different element types, and, to the extent possible, updated kinetic rates. The Spray Combustion Analysis Program (SCAP) was leveraged to support assumptions in the vaporization trends. Data of both thrusters is revisited and the model maintains a good predictive capability while addressing some of the major limitations of the previous version.

Inequalities in self-rated health in Japan 1986-2007 according to household income and a novel occupational classification: national sampling survey series.

PubMed

Hiyoshi, Ayako; Fukuda, Yoshiharu; Shipley, Martin J; Brunner, Eric J

2013-11-01

Japan, for the past two decades, has seen economic stagnation and substantial social change. We examined whether health inequalities increased over this period. Using eight triennial waves of a series of large nationally representative surveys between 1986 and 2007 (n=398 303), temporal trends in relative and slope indices of inequality (RII, SII, respectively) were tested based on self-rated health in relation to theory-based social class and household income. Age-standardised prevalence of self-rated fair or poor health showed V-shaped time trends in both sexes with the lowest prevalence in early/mid-1990s. In 1986, RII and SII in household social class and income were significant for both sexes. In men, RII and SII according to income showed significant narrowing of temporal trends in poor health (-1.4% and -0.1% annually, respectively), but these were stable in women. After multilevel multiple imputation for missing income data, the findings in men were not altered but narrowing trends became evident and significant in women (-1% and -0.1% annually, respectively). Inequality indices for social class remained constant over the study period in both sexes. Relative and absolute health inequalities for social class and income based on self-rated fair or poor health narrowed or remained stable between 1986 and 2007, despite the economic stagnation and adverse social changes. Overall population health across socioeconomic groups initially improved but then worsened. The positive finding regarding the health inequality trend seen in the Japanese context is informative for the wider international community during this period of economic uncertainty.

Identification of nitrate long term trends in Loire-Brittany river district (France) in connection with hydrogeological contexts, agricultural practices and water table level variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, B.; Baran, N.; Bourgine, B.; Ratheau, D.

2009-04-01

The European Union (EU) has adopted directives requiring that Member States take measures to reach a "good" chemical status of water resources by the year 2015 (Water Framework Directive: WFD). Alongside, the Nitrates Directives (91/676/EEC) aims at controlling nitrogen pollution and requires Member States to identify groundwaters that contain more than 50 mg NO3 L-1 or could exceed this limit if preventive measures are not taken. In order to achieve these environmental objectives in the Loire-Brittany river basin, or to justify the non achievement of these objectives, a large dataset of nitrate concentrations (117.056 raw data distributed on 7.341 time-series) and water table level time-series (1.371.655 data distributed on 511 piezometers) is analysed from 1945 to 2007. The 156.700 sq km Loire-Brittany river basin shows various hydrogeological contexts, ranging from sedimentary aquifers to basement ones, with a few volcanic-rock aquifers. The knowledge of the evolution of agricultural practices is important in such a study and, even if this information is not locally available, agricultural practices have globally changed since the 1991 Nitrates Directives. The detailed dataset available for the Loire-Brittany basin aquifers is used to evaluate tools and to propose efficient methodologies for identifying and quantifying past and current trends in nitrate concentrations. Therefore, the challenge of this study is to propose a global and integrated approach which allows nitrate trend identifications for the whole Loire-Brittany river basin. The temporal piezometric behaviour of each aquifer is defined using geostatistical analyse of water table level time-series. This method requires the calculation of an experimental temporal variogram that can be fitted with a theoretical model valid for a large time range. Identification of contrasted behaviours (short term, annual or pluriannual water table fluctuations) allows a systematic classification of the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers. The nitrate dataset shows too many irregularities to employ traditional time-series approaches such as linear regression trend tests. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a robust statistical trend detection test that does not require verification of the normality of the dataset (Aguilar et al, 2007). Moreover, this test seems appropriate since it is less sensitive to missing or outlier data than a simple linear regression test. As the MK test can only detect monotonic trends, and as already done by Stuart et al., (2007) and Broers and Van der Grift (2004), the trend analyses are decennially partitioned in order to identify possible trend reversals for the studied period for each observation point. The trend identification is then spatialized by the use of the Kendall Regional (KR) test on homogenous zones characterized by their geology, their agricultural practices and their piezometric behaviour. The KR test, previously used by Frans and Helsel (2005) in the Columbia Basin Ground Water context, is quite similar to the MK test and consists of the creation of virtual regional boreholes using networks of boreholes located in the homogenous zones. This test allows the identification of regional monotonic trends, even in the zones where nitrate time-series are too small to detect significant trend per observation point. The MK test results show significant upward trends in nitrate concentrations in the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers when the test is computed on the 1945-2007 period. However, the decennial MK test shows different behaviours at smaller time scale. Some zones are characterized by a constant and significant increase in nitrate concentrations since 1945 (North-East of Brittany, North of Beauce) whereas others show a trend reversal (South of Brittany, Callovo-Oxfordian marls between Le Mans and Alençon, under covered Jurassic limestone around Poitiers). Furthermore, some rare zones show an increase in nitrate concentrations that follow a significant downward trend period (Orléans). In the nineties, a transition period may have occurred with a higher proportion of upward than downward trends (82 % against 7 % respectively) for the 1980-1990 period and a lower proportion of upward than downward trends for the 2000-2007 period (37 % against 51 % respectively). Combined with the analyse of the current groundwater nitrate concentrations, the KR test reveals zones where trends in nitrate concentrations have been significantly raising with high nitrate current mean values (> 50 mg NO3 L-1). On the other hand, some zones show a significant regional downward trend since 1995 and low current nitrate concentrations (< 20 mg NO3 L-1). Causes of trend reversals cannot be determined by the MK and KR statistical trend analyses, but the cross analyse of nitrate and water table level time-series gives a hint of a positive correlation between these two variables. Evolution of nitrate concentrations in superficial aquifers may thus depend on a combined effect of changes in both agricultural practices and evolution of water table levels linked with climatic context. References Aguilar J.B., Orban P., Dassargues A., Brouyère S., (2007) - Identification of groundwater quality trends in a chalk aquifer threatened by intensive agriculture in Belgium. Hydrogeology journal 15: 1615-1627. Broers H.P., van der Grift B., (2004) - Regional monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality. Journal of hydrology 296: 192-220. Frans L.M., Helsel D.R. (2005) - Evaluating regional trends in ground water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin Ground Water management Area, Washington. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5078, 7p. Stuart M.E., Chilton P.J., Kiniiburgh D.G., Cooper D.M., (2007) - Screening for long-term trends in groundwater nitrate monitoring data. Quaterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 40: 361-376. Funding The study was funded by the Loire-Brittany River Basin Agency and from proper BRGM funds.

Homogeneity testing of the global ESA CCI multi-satellite soil moisture climate data record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preimesberger, Wolfgang; Su, Chun-Hsu; Gruber, Alexander; Dorigo, Wouter

2017-04-01

ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) creates a global, long-term data record by merging multiple available earth observation products with the goal to provide a product for climate studies, trend analysis, and risk assessments. The blending of soil moisture (SM) time series derived from different active and passive remote sensing instruments with varying sensor characteristics, such as microwave frequency, signal polarization or radiometric accuracy, could potentially lead to inhomogeneities in the merged long-term data series, undercutting the usefulness of the product. To detect the spatio-temporal extent of contiguous periods without inhomogeneities as well as subsequently minimizing their negative impact on the data records, different relative homogeneity tests (namely Fligner-Killeen test of homogeneity of variances and Wilcoxon rank-sums test) are implemented and tested on the combined active-passive ESA CCI SM data set. Inhomogeneities are detected by comparing the data against reference data from in-situ data from ISMN, and model-based estimates from GLDAS-Noah and MERRA-Land. Inhomogeneity testing is performed over the ESA CCI SM data time frame of 38 years (from 1978 to 2015), on a global quarter-degree grid and with regard to six alterations in the combination of observation systems used in the data blending process. This study describes and explains observed variations in the spatial and temporal patterns of inhomogeneities in the combined products. Besides we proposes methodologies for measuring and reducing the impact of inhomogeneities on trends derived from the ESA CCI SM data set, and suggest the use of inhomogeneity-corrected data for future trend studies. This study is supported by the European Union's FP7 EartH2Observe "Global Earth Observation for Integrated Water Resource Assessment" project (grant agreement number 331 603608).

Automated mesostructural analyses using GIS, Beta test: Paleozoic structures from the New Jersey Great Valley region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herman, G.C.; French, M.A.; Monteverde, D.H.

1993-03-01

An automated method has been developed for representing outcrop data on geologic structures on maps. Using a MS-DOS custom database management system in conjunction with the ARC/INFO Geographic Information System (GIS), trends of geologic structures are plotted with user-specific symbols. The length of structural symbols can be frequency-weighted based on collective values from structural domains. The PC-based data manager is the NJGS Field data Management System (FMS) Version 2.0 which includes sort, output, and analysis functions for structural data input in either azimuth or quadrant form. Program options include lineament sorting, data output to other data management and analysis software,more » and a circular histogram (rose diagram) routine for trend frequency analysis. Trends can be displayed with either half-or full-rose diagrams using either 10[degree] sectors or one degree spikes for strike, trend, or dip azimuth readings. Scalar and vector statistics are both included. For the mesostructural analysis, ASCII files containing the station number, structural trend and inclination, and plot-symbol-length value are downloaded from FMS and uploaded into an ARC/INFO macro which sequentially plots the information. Plots can be generated in conjunction with any complimentary GIS coverage for various types of spatial analyses. Mesostructural plots can be used for regional tectonic analyses, for hydrogeologic analysis of fractured bedrock aquifers, or for ground-truthing data from fracture-trace or lineament analyses.« less

Trends in surface-water quality during implementation of best-management practices in Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koerkle, Edward H.

2000-01-01

Analyses of water samples collected over a 5-year period (1993-98) in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins during implementation of agricultural best-management practices (BMP’s) indicate statistically significant trends in the concentrations of several nutrient species and in nonfilterable residue (suspended solids). The strongest trends identified were those indicated by a more than 50- percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus and total residue in base flow in the two streams. Analyses of stormflow samples showed a 31-percent decrease in the flow-adjusted concentration of total phosphorus in Mill Creek and a 54-percent decrease in total nonfilterable residue in Muddy Run. A 58-percent increase in the flow-adjusted concentration of total ammonia nitrogen in stormflow was found at Muddy Run.Although the effects of a specific BMP on the indicated trends is uncertain, results of statistical trend tests of the data suggest that stream fencing, possibly in concert with other practices, such as stream crossings for livestock, barnyard runoff control, manure-storage facilities, and rotational grazing, was effective in improving water quality during base flow and probably low to moderate stormflow conditions. Additional improvements in water quality in the Mill Creek and Muddy Run Basins seems likely as the implementation of BMP’s is expected to continue. Thus, the full effect of BMP implementation in the two basins may not be observed for some time.

Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoddard, J.L.; Jeffries, D.S.; Lukewille, A.; Clair, T.A.; Dillon, P.J.; Driscoll, C.T.; Forsius, M.; Johannessen, M.; Kahl, J.S.; Kellogg, J.H.; Kemp, A.; Mannlo, J.; Monteith, D.T.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Patrick, S.; Rebsdorl, A.; Skjelkvale, B.L.; Stainton, M.P.; Traaen, T.; Van Dam, H.; Webster, K.E.; Wleting, J.; Wllander, A.

1999-01-01

Rates of acidic deposition from the atmosphere ('acid rain') have decreased throughout the 1980s and 1990s across large portions of North America and Europe. Many recent studies have attributed observed reversals in surface-water acidification at national and regional scales to the declining deposition. To test whether emissions regulations have led to widespread recovery in surface-water chemistry, we analysed regional trends between 1980 and 1995 in indicators of acidification (sulphate, nitrate and base-cation concentrations, and measured (Gran) alkalinity) for 205 lakes and streams in eight regions of North America and Europe. Dramatic differences in trend direction and strength for the two decades are apparent. In concordance with general temporal trends in acidic deposition, lake and stream sulphate concentrations decreased in all regions with the exception of Great Britain all but one of these regions exhibited stronger downward trends in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In contrast, regional declines in lake and stream nitrate concentrations were rare and, when detected, were very small. Recovery in alkalinity, expected wherever strong regional declines in sulphate concentrations have occurred, was observed in all regions of Europe, especially in the 1990s, but in only one region (of five) in North America. We attribute the lack of recovery in three regions (south/central Ontario, the Adirondack/Catskill mountains and midwestern North America) to strong regional declines in base-cation concentrations that exceed the decreases in sulphate concentrations.

Analysis of trends in water-quality data for water conservation area 3A, the Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattraw, H.C.; Scheidt, D.J.; Federico, A.C.

1987-01-01

Rainfall and water quality data bases from the South Florida Water Management District were used to evaluate water quality trends at 10 locations near or in Water Conservation Area 3A in The Everglades. The Seasonal Kendall test was applied to specific conductance, orthophosphate-phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total nitrogen regression residuals for the period 1978-82. Residuals of orthophosphate and nitrate quadratic models, based on antecedent 7-day rainfall at inflow gate S-11B, were the only two constituent-structure pairs that showed apparent significant (p < 0.05) increases in constituent concentrations. Elimination of regression models with distinct residual patterns and data outlines resulted in 17 statistically significant station water quality combinations for trend analysis. No water quality trends were observed. The 1979 Memorandum of Agreement outlining the water quality monitoring program between the Everglades National Park and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stressed collection four times a year at three stations, and extensive coverage of water quality properties. Trend analysis and other rigorous statistical evaluation programs are better suited to data monitoring programs that include more frequent sampling and that are organized in a water quality data management system. Pronounced areal differences in water quality suggest that a water quality monitoring system for Shark River Slough in Everglades National Park include collection locations near the source of inflow to Water Conservation Area 3A. (Author 's abstract)

Analysis of European ozone trends in the period 1995-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Pozzer, Andrea; Ojha, Narendra; Lin, Jintai; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-04-01

Surface-based measurements from the EMEP and Airbase networks are used to estimate the changes in surface ozone levels during the 1995-2014 period over Europe. We find significant ozone enhancements (0.20-0.59 µg m-3 yr-1 for the annual means; P-value < 0.01 according to an F-test) over the European suburban and urban stations during 1995-2012 based on the Airbase sites. For European background ozone observed at EMEP sites, it is shown that a significantly decreasing trend in the 95th percentile ozone concentrations has occurred, especially at noon (0.9 µg m-3 yr-1; P-value < 0.01), while the 5th percentile ozone concentrations continued to increase with a trend of 0.3 µg m-3 yr-1 (P-value < 0.01) during the study period. With the help of numerical simulations performed with the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, the importance of anthropogenic emissions changes in determining these changes over background sites are investigated. The EMAC model is found to successfully capture the observed temporal variability in mean ozone concentrations, as well as the contrast in the trends of 95th and 5th percentile ozone over Europe. Sensitivity simulations and statistical analysis show that a decrease in European anthropogenic emissions had contrasting effects on surface ozone trends between the 95th and 5th percentile levels and that background ozone levels have been influenced by hemispheric transport, while climate variability generally regulated the inter-annual variations of surface ozone in Europe.

[Cell therapy for Parkinson's disease: IV. Risks and future trends].

PubMed

Anisimov, S V

2009-01-01

Motor dysfunctions in Parkinson's disease are believed to be primarily due to the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons located in the substantia nigra pars compacta. Numerous cell replacement therapy approaches have been developed and tested, including these based on donor cell transplantation (embryonic and adult tissue-derived), adult mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs)-, neural stem cells (hNSCs)- and finally human embryonic stem cells (hESCs)-based. Despite the progress achieved, numerous difficulties prevent wider practical application of stem cell-based therapy approaches for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Among the latter, ethical, safety and technical issues stand out. Current series of reviews (Cell therapy for Parkinson's disease: I. Embryonic and adult donor tissue-based applications; II. Adult stem cell-based applications; III. Neonatal, fetal and embryonic stem cell-based applications; IV. Risks and future trends) aims providing a balanced and updated view on various issues associated with cell types (including stem cells) in regards to their potential in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Essential features of the individual cell subtypes, principles of available cell handling protocols, transplantation, and safety issues are discussed extensively.

Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

PubMed Central

Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

2015-01-01

Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Holmgren, Amanda L.; Wilkerson, Robert L.; Siegel, Rodney B.; Kuntz, Robert C.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John R.; Huff, Mark H.

2014-01-01

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

A statistical approach to bioclimatic trend detection in the airborne pollen records of Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Belmonte, Jordina; Delgado, Rosario; De Linares, Concepción

2014-04-01

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Utah

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Utah's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 8 reading. In grade 4 reading, the percentage scoring proficient on the state test showed a…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Washington

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Washington's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) decreased in grade 4 reading. In grade 4 math, the percentage scoring proficient on the state test decreased…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Maryland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Maryland's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased at grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. Average annual gains were larger on the state test than…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Pennsylvania

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Pennsylvania's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 8 reading and math. Average annual gains were larger on the state test than on NAEP in…

Trends in Pap Test Practices and Results: An 11-Year Review of the Annual ACHA Pap Test and STI Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eastman-Mueller, Heather P.; Oswalt, Sara B.

2017-01-01

Objective: To conduct a trend analysis of Pap test practices, Pap test results and related women's services and guidelines of college health centers. Participants: College health centers who participated in the annual ACHA Pap Test and STI (sexually transmitted infection) Survey years 2004-2014 (n ranged from 127 to 181 depending on year).…

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

Trend-Residual Dual Modeling for Detection of Outliers in Low-Cost GPS Trajectories.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaojian; Cui, Tingting; Fu, Jianhong; Peng, Jianwei; Shan, Jie

2016-12-01

Low-cost GPS (receiver) has become a ubiquitous and integral part of our daily life. Despite noticeable advantages such as being cheap, small, light, and easy to use, its limited positioning accuracy devalues and hampers its wide applications for reliable mapping and analysis. Two conventional techniques to remove outliers in a GPS trajectory are thresholding and Kalman-based methods, which are difficult in selecting appropriate thresholds and modeling the trajectories. Moreover, they are insensitive to medium and small outliers, especially for low-sample-rate trajectories. This paper proposes a model-based GPS trajectory cleaner. Rather than examining speed and acceleration or assuming a pre-determined trajectory model, we first use cubic smooth spline to adaptively model the trend of the trajectory. The residuals, i.e., the differences between the trend and GPS measurements, are then further modeled by time series method. Outliers are detected by scoring the residuals at every GPS trajectory point. Comparing to the conventional procedures, the trend-residual dual modeling approach has the following features: (a) it is able to model trajectories and detect outliers adaptively; (b) only one critical value for outlier scores needs to be set; (c) it is able to robustly detect unapparent outliers; and (d) it is effective in cleaning outliers for GPS trajectories with low sample rates. Tests are carried out on three real-world GPS trajectories datasets. The evaluation demonstrates an average of 9.27 times better performance in outlier detection for GPS trajectories than thresholding and Kalman-based techniques.

Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

2018-06-01

The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

Motion perception tasks as potential correlates to driving difficulty in the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghuram, A.; Lakshminarayanan, V.

2006-09-01

Changes in the demographics indicates that the population older than 65 is on the rise because of the aging of the ‘baby boom’ generation. This aging trend and driving related accident statistics reveal the need for procedures and tests that would assess the driving ability of older adults and predict whether they would be safe or unsafe drivers. Literature shows that an attention based test called the useful field of view (UFOV) was a significant predictor of accident rates compared to any other visual function tests. The present study evaluates a qualitative trend on using motion perception tasks as a potential visual perceptual correlates in screening elderly drivers who might have difficulty in driving. Data was collected from 15 older subjects with a mean age of 71. Motion perception tasks included—speed discrimination with radial and lamellar motion, time to collision using prediction motion and estimating direction of heading. A motion index score was calculated which was indicative of performance on all of the above-mentioned motion tasks. Scores on visual attention was assessed using UFOV. A driving habit questionnaire was also administered for a self report on the driving difficulties and accident rates. A qualitative trend based on frequency distributions show that thresholds on the motion perception tasks are successful in identifying subjects who reported to have had difficulty in certain aspects of driving and had accidents. Correlation between UFOV and motion index scores was not significant indicating that probably different aspects of visual information processing that are crucial to driving behaviour are being tapped by these two paradigms. UFOV and motion perception tasks together can be a better predictor for identifying at risk or safe drivers than just using either one of them.

Adherence to a web-based intervention program for traumatized persons in mainland China.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiyun

2014-01-01

This paper investigated adherence to a self-help web-based intervention for PTSD (Chinese My Trauma Recovery, CMTR) in mainland China and evaluated the association between adherence measures and potential predictors, for example, traumatic symptoms and self-efficacy. Data from 56 urban and 90 rural trauma survivors were reported who used at least one of the seven recovery modules of CMTR. The results showed that 80% urban users visited CMTR four or less days and 87% rural users visited CMTR for 5 or 6 days. On average, urban users visited 2.54 (SD=1.99) modules on the first visiting day and less from the second day; rural users visited 1.10 (SD=0.54) modules on the first visiting day, and it became stable in the following days. In both samples, depression scores at pre-test were significantly or trend significantly associated with the number of visited web pages in the relaxation and professional help modules (r=0.20-0.26, all p<0.14); traumatic symptom scores at pre-test significantly or trend significantly correlated to the number of visited web pages in the relaxation, professional help, and mastery tools modules (r=0.20-0.26, all p<0.10). Moreover, urban users' coping self-efficacy scores at pre-test significantly or trend significantly related to the number of visited web pages in the relaxation, professional help, social support, and mastery tool modules (r=0.20-0.33, all p<0.16). These findings suggest that individuals tend to focus on one or two recovery modules when they visit CMTR, and the number of web pages visited during the intervention period relates to users' traumatic and depressive symptoms and self-efficacy before intervention.

Investigation of Acute and Chronic Toxicity Trends of Pesticides Using High-Throughput Bioluminescence Assay Based on the Test Organism Vibrio fischeri.

PubMed

Westlund, Paul; Nasuhoglu, Deniz; Isazadeh, Siavash; Yargeau, Viviane

2018-05-01

High-throughput acute and chronic toxicity tests using Vibrio fischeri were used to assess the toxicity of a variety of fungicides, herbicides, and neonicotinoids. The use of time points beyond the traditional 30 min of an acute test highlighted the sensitivity and applicability of the chronic toxicity test and indicated that for some compounds toxicity is underestimated using only the acute test. The comparison of EC 50 values obtained from acute and chronic tests provided insight regarding the toxicity mode of action, either being direct or indirect. Using a structure-activity relationship approach similar to the one used in hazard assessments, the relationship between toxicity and key physicochemical properties of pesticides was investigated and trends were identified. This study not only provides new information regarding acute toxicity of some pesticides but also is one of the first studies to investigate the chronic toxicity of pesticides using the test organism V. fischeri. The findings demonstrated that the initial bioluminescence has a large effect on the calculated effective concentrations for target compounds in both acute and chronic tests, providing a way to improve and standardize the test protocol. In addition, the findings emphasize the need for additional investigation regarding the relationship between a toxicant's physicochemical properties and mode of action in nontarget organisms.

Cointegration and Nonstationarity in the Context of Multiresolution Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worden, K.; Cross, E. J.; Kyprianou, A.

2011-07-01

Cointegration has established itself as a powerful means of projecting out long-term trends from time-series data in the context of econometrics. Recent work by the current authors has further established that cointegration can be applied profitably in the context of structural health monitoring (SHM), where it is desirable to project out the effects of environmental and operational variations from data in order that they do not generate false positives in diagnostic tests. The concept of cointegration is partly built on a clear understanding of the ideas of stationarity and nonstationarity for time-series. Nonstationarity in this context is 'traditionally' established through the use of statistical tests, e.g. the hypothesis test based on the augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic. However, it is important to understand the distinction in this case between 'trend' stationarity and stationarity of the AR models typically fitted as part of the analysis process. The current paper will discuss this distinction in the context of SHM data and will extend the discussion by the introduction of multi-resolution (discrete wavelet) analysis as a means of characterising the time-scales on which nonstationarity manifests itself. The discussion will be based on synthetic data and also on experimental data for the guided-wave SHM of a composite plate.

A bootstrap method for estimating uncertainty of water quality trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.; Archfield, Stacey A.; DeCicco, Laura

2015-01-01

Estimation of the direction and magnitude of trends in surface water quality remains a problem of great scientific and practical interest. The Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method was recently introduced as an exploratory data analysis tool to provide flexible and robust estimates of water quality trends. This paper enhances the WRTDS method through the introduction of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT), an extension of WRTDS that quantifies the uncertainty in WRTDS-estimates of water quality trends and offers various ways to visualize and communicate these uncertainties. Monte Carlo experiments are applied to estimate the Type I error probabilities for this method. WBT is compared to other water-quality trend-testing methods appropriate for data sets of one to three decades in length with sampling frequencies of 6–24 observations per year. The software to conduct the test is in the EGRETci R-package.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-09-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25-100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-01-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Analysis and forecast of railway coal transportation volume based on BP neural network combined forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yongbin; Xie, Haihong; Wu, Liuyi

2018-05-01

The share of coal transportation in the total railway freight volume is about 50%. As is widely acknowledged, coal industry is vulnerable to the economic situation and national policies. Coal transportation volume fluctuates significantly under the new economic normal. Grasp the overall development trend of railway coal transportation market, have important reference and guidance significance to the railway and coal industry decision-making. By analyzing the economic indicators and policy implications, this paper expounds the trend of the coal transportation volume, and further combines the economic indicators with the high correlation with the coal transportation volume with the traditional traffic prediction model to establish a combined forecasting model based on the back propagation neural network. The error of the prediction results is tested, which proves that the method has higher accuracy and has practical application.

Statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data for persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere at 20 monitoring stations broadly indicates declining concentrations.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Hung, Hayley; Cousins, Ian T

2014-11-04

During recent decades concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere have been monitored at multiple stations worldwide. We used three statistical methods to analyze a total of 748 time series of selected POPs in the atmosphere to determine if there are statistically significant reductions in levels of POPs that have had control actions enacted to restrict or eliminate manufacture, use and emissions. Significant decreasing trends were identified in 560 (75%) of the 748 time series collected from the Arctic, North America, and Europe, indicating that the atmospheric concentrations of these POPs are generally decreasing, consistent with the overall effectiveness of emission control actions. Statistically significant trends in synthetic time series could be reliably identified with the improved Mann-Kendall (iMK) test and the digital filtration (DF) technique in time series longer than 5 years. The temporal trends of new (or emerging) POPs in the atmosphere are often unclear because time series are too short. A statistical detrending method based on the iMK test was not able to identify abrupt changes in the rates of decline of atmospheric POP concentrations encoded into synthetic time series.

Gender-Based Screening for Chlamydial Infection and Divergent Infection Trends in Men and Women

PubMed Central

Rogers, Susan M.; Turner, Charles F.; Miller, William C.; Erbelding, Emily; Eggleston, Elizabeth; Tan, Sylvia; Roman, Anthony; Hobbs, Marcia; Chromy, James; Muvva, Ravikiran; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana

2014-01-01

Objectives To assess the potential impact of chlamydial screening policy that recommends routine screening of women but not men. Methods Population surveys of probability samples of Baltimore adults aged 18 to 35 years in 1997–1998 and 2006–2009 collected biospecimens to estimate trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection. Survey estimates are compared to surveillance data on diagnosed chlamydial infections reported to the Health Department. Results Prevalence of undiagnosed chlamydial infection among men increased from 1.6% to 4.0%, but it declined from 4.3% to 3.1% among women (p = 0.028 for test of interaction). The annual (average) number of diagnosed infections was substantially higher among women than men in both time periods and increased among both men and women. Undiagnosed infection prevalence was substantially higher among black than non-black adults (4.0% vs 1.2%, p = 0.042 in 1997–98 and 5.5% vs 0.7%, p<0.001 in 2006–09). Conclusion Divergent trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection by gender parallel divergent screening recommendations that encourage chlamydial testing for women but not for men. PMID:24586491

The malleability of infant motor development: cautions based on studies of child-rearing practices in Yucatan.

PubMed

Solomons, H C

1978-11-01

Tests with the Bayley Motor Scale were given to 288 infants, equally divided by sex, in Yucatan, Mexico. These were 2 to 54 weeks in age and came from three sociocultural levels. In comparison to USA infants, early acceleration of motor development was followed by a marked downward trend. This phenomenon, if observed in a single child, may indicate progressive neurologic disease. Child-rearing practices would appear to account for the difference in pattern of test performance.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Arkansas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Arkansas's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) went up in math at grades 4 and 8. In reading, the percentages scoring proficient on the state test went up at…

Updating estimates of low streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, A. G.; Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Kiang, J. E.; Dudley, R. W.

2017-12-01

Given evidence of both increasing and decreasing trends in low flows in many streams, methods are needed to update estimators of low flow statistics used in water resources management. One such metric is the 10-year annual low-flow statistic (7Q10) calculated as the annual minimum seven-day streamflow which is exceeded in nine out of ten years on average. Historical streamflow records may not be representative of current conditions at a site if environmental conditions are changing. We present a new approach to frequency estimation under nonstationary conditions that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to a subset of the annual minimum flow record. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to evaluate this approach across a range of trend and no trend scenarios. Relative to the standard practice of using the entire available streamflow record, use of a nonparametric quantile estimator combined with selection of the most recent 30 or 50 years for 7Q10 estimation were found to improve accuracy and reduce bias. Benefits of data subset selection approaches were greater for higher magnitude trends annual minimum flow records with lower coefficients of variation. A nonparametric trend test approach for subset selection did not significantly improve upon always selecting the last 30 years of record. At 174 stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay region, 7Q10 estimators based on the most recent 30 years of flow record were compared to estimators based on the entire period of record. Given the availability of long records of low streamflow, using only a subset of the flow record ( 30 years) can be used to update 7Q10 estimators to better reflect current streamflow conditions.

Ischaemic heart disease mortality in Serbia, 1991-2013; a joinpoint analysis

PubMed Central

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) has been one of the leading causes of mortality in the world. In many European countries the mortality rates due to IHD have been rising rapidly. This study was aimed to assess the IHD mortality trend in Serbia. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study analyzing IHD mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2013 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the European standard population. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95 per cent confidence interval (CI). Results: More than 253,000 people (143,420 men and 110,276 women) died due to IHD in Serbia during the observed period, and most of them (over 160,000 people) were patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Average annual ASR for IHD was 113.6/100,000. There was no overall significant trend for mortality due to IHD (AAPC=+0.1%, 95% CI −0.8-1.0), but there was one joinpoint: the trend significantly increased by +2.3 per cent per year from 1991 to 2006 and then significantly decreased by −6.4 per cent from 2006 to onwards. Significantly decreased mortality trends for MI in both genders were observed: according to the comparability test, mortality trends in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P=0.0567). Interpretation & conclusions: No significant trend for mortality due to IHD was observed in Serbia during the study period. The substantial decline of mortality from IHD seen in most developed countries during the past decades was not observed in Serbia. Further efforts are required to reduce mortality from IHD in Serbian population. PMID:29664033

Investigating the usefulness of a cluster-based trend analysis to detect visual field progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Aoki, Shuichiro; Murata, Hiroshi; Fujino, Yuri; Matsuura, Masato; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Hirasawa, Kazunori; Shoji, Nobuyuki; Asaoka, Ryo

2017-12-01

To investigate the usefulness of the Octopus (Haag-Streit) EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis in glaucoma. Ten visual fields (VFs) with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec), spanning 7.7 years on average were obtained from 728 eyes of 475 primary open angle glaucoma patients. Mean total deviation (mTD) trend analysis and EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis were performed on various series of VFs (from 1st to 10th: VF1-10 to 6th to 10th: VF6-10). The results of the cluster-based trend analysis, based on different lengths of VF series, were compared against mTD trend analysis. Cluster-based trend analysis and mTD trend analysis results were significantly associated in all clusters and with all lengths of VF series. Between 21.2% and 45.9% (depending on VF series length and location) of clusters were deemed to progress when the mTD trend analysis suggested no progression. On the other hand, 4.8% of eyes were observed to progress using the mTD trend analysis when cluster trend analysis suggested no progression in any two (or more) clusters. Whole field trend analysis can miss local VF progression. Cluster trend analysis appears as robust as mTD trend analysis and useful to assess both sectorial and whole field progression. Cluster-based trend analyses, in particular the definition of two or more progressing cluster, may help clinicians to detect glaucomatous progression in a timelier manner than using a whole field trend analysis, without significantly compromising specificity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

Hepatitis C Virus: Unnoticed and on the Rise in Blood Donor Screening? A 5 Years Cross-sectional Study on Seroprevalence in Voluntary Blood Donors from Central India.

PubMed

Saini, Purti Agrawal; Chakrabarti, Preeti Rihal; Varma, Amit V; Gambhir, Shankhini; Tignath, Gargi; Gupta, Priyanka

2017-01-01

The ultimate goal of a blood transfusion service is the provision of safe and adequate supply free from transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs). TTIs not only threaten the recipient's safety, but they also increase disease burden. Seroprevalence of TTIs in healthy blood donors indirectly reflects the prevalence of these infections in the general healthy population. To study the seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in healthy donors at a tertiary care hospital-based blood bank. To know the yearly and age-group prevalence of these TTIs as compared with other studies across India. This is 5 years observational cross-section study conducted in a tertiary hospital-based teaching institute of Central India (Malwa region). The results of serological testing of TTIs and donor variables were analyzed during 2011-2015. Chi-square test and Chi-square for trend analysis on TTIs prevalence. A total of 58,998 donors were screened for TTIs with dominance of male donation (99.7%). The overall cumulative seroprevalence was 1.14% in our study. The seroprevalence of HIV, HBV, and HCV was 0.09%, 0.98%, and 0.07%, respectively. We found a statistically significant increasing trend for HCV seropositivity during the study. Our study reflects an increasing trend of HCV seroprevalence over time. Thus, efforts are needed to increase the awareness and to educate the population in reducing risk factors for HCV infection.

Absolute plate motions relative to deep mantle plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shimin; Yu, Hongzheng; Zhang, Qiong; Zhao, Yonghong

2018-05-01

Advances in whole waveform seismic tomography have revealed the presence of broad mantle plumes rooted at the base of the Earth's mantle beneath major hotspots. Hotspot tracks associated with these deep mantle plumes provide ideal constraints for inverting absolute plate motions as well as testing the fixed hotspot hypothesis. In this paper, 27 observed hotspot trends associated with 24 deep mantle plumes are used together with the MORVEL model for relative plate motions to determine an absolute plate motion model, in terms of a maximum likelihood optimization for angular data fitting, combined with an outlier data detection procedure based on statistical tests. The obtained T25M model fits 25 observed trends of globally distributed hotspot tracks to the statistically required level, while the other two hotspot trend data (Comores on Somalia and Iceland on Eurasia) are identified as outliers, which are significantly incompatible with other data. For most hotspots with rate data available, T25M predicts plate velocities significantly lower than the observed rates of hotspot volcanic migration, which cannot be fully explained by biased errors in observed rate data. Instead, the apparent hotspot motions derived by subtracting the observed hotspot migration velocities from the T25M plate velocities exhibit a combined pattern of being opposite to plate velocities and moving towards mid-ocean ridges. The newly estimated net rotation of the lithosphere is statistically compatible with three recent estimates, but differs significantly from 30 of 33 prior estimates.

US Rocket Propulsion Industrial Base Health Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doreswamy, Rajiv

2013-01-01

The number of active liquid rocket engine and solid rocket motor development programs has severely declined since the "space race" of the 1950s and 1960s center dot This downward trend has been exacerbated by the retirement of the Space Shuttle, transition from the Constellation Program to the Space launch System (SLS) and similar activity in DoD programs center dot In addition with consolidation in the industry, the rocket propulsion industrial base is under stress. To Improve the "health" of the RPIB, we need to understand - The current condition of the RPIB - How this compares to past history - The trend of RPIB health center dot This drives the need for a concise set of "metrics" - Analogous to the basic data a physician uses to determine the state of health of his patients - Easy to measure and collect - The trend is often more useful than the actual data point - Can be used to focus on problem areas and develop preventative measures The nation's capability to conceive, design, develop, manufacture, test, and support missions using liquid rocket engines and solid rocket motors that are critical to its national security, economic health and growth, and future scientific needs. center dot The RPIB encompasses US government, academic, and commercial (including industry primes and their supplier base) research, development, test, evaluation, and manufacturing capabilities and facilities. center dot The RPIB includes the skilled workforce, related intellectual property, engineering and support services, and supply chain operations and management. This definition touches the five main segments of the U.S. RPIB as categorized by the USG: defense, intelligence community, civil government, academia, and commercial sector. The nation's capability to conceive, design, develop, manufacture, test, and support missions using liquid rocket engines and solid rocket motors that are critical to its national security, economic health and growth, and future scientific needs. center dot The RPIB encompasses US government, academic, and commercial (including industry primes and their supplier base) research, development, test, evaluation, and manufacturing capabilities and facilities. center dot The RPIB includes the skilled workforce, related intellectual property, engineering and support services, and supply chain operations and management. This definition touches the five main segments of the U.S. RPIB as categorized by the USG: defense, intelligence community, civil government, academia, and commercial sector.

A data base and analysis program for shuttle main engine dynamic pressure measurements. Appendix B: Data base plots for SSME tests 901-290 through 901-414

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffin, T.

1986-01-01

A dynamic pressure data base and data base management system developed to characterize the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) dynamic pressure environment is described. The data base represents dynamic pressure measurements obtained during single engine hot firing tesets of the SSME. Software is provided to permit statistical evaluation of selected measurements under specified operating conditions. An interpolation scheme is also included to estimate spectral trends with SSME power level. Flow dynamic environments in high performance rocket engines are discussed.

Space Launch System Base Heating Test: Environments and Base Flow Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Manish; Knox, Kyle S.; Seaford, C. Mark; Dufrene, Aaron T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is composed of four RS-25 liquid oxygen- hydrogen rocket engines in the core-stage and two 5-segment solid rocket boosters and as a result six hot supersonic plumes interact within the aft section of the vehicle during ight. Due to the complex nature of rocket plume-induced ows within the launch vehicle base during ascent and a new vehicle con guration, sub-scale wind tunnel testing is required to reduce SLS base convective environment uncertainty and design risk levels. This hot- re test program was conducted at the CUBRC Large Energy National Shock (LENS) II short-duration test facility to simulate ight from altitudes of 50 kft to 210 kft. The test program is a challenging and innovative e ort that has not been attempted in 40+ years for a NASA vehicle. This presentation discusses the various trends of base convective heat ux and pressure as a function of altitude at various locations within the core-stage and booster base regions of the two-percent SLS wind tunnel model. In-depth understanding of the base ow physics is presented using the test data, infrared high-speed imaging and theory. The normalized test design environments are compared to various NASA semi- empirical numerical models to determine exceedance and conservatism of the ight scaled test-derived base design environments. Brief discussion of thermal impact to the launch vehicle base components is also presented.

Space Launch System Base Heating Test: Environments and Base Flow Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Manish; Knox, Kyle S.; Seaford, C. Mark; Dufrene, Aaron T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is composed of four RS-25 liquid oxygen-hydrogen rocket engines in the core-stage and two 5-segment solid rocket boosters and as a result six hot supersonic plumes interact within the aft section of the vehicle during flight. Due to the complex nature of rocket plume-induced flows within the launch vehicle base during ascent and a new vehicle configuration, sub-scale wind tunnel testing is required to reduce SLS base convective environment uncertainty and design risk levels. This hot-fire test program was conducted at the CUBRC Large Energy National Shock (LENS) II short-duration test facility to simulate flight from altitudes of 50 kft to 210 kft. The test program is a challenging and innovative effort that has not been attempted in 40+ years for a NASA vehicle. This paper discusses the various trends of base convective heat flux and pressure as a function of altitude at various locations within the core-stage and booster base regions of the two-percent SLS wind tunnel model. In-depth understanding of the base flow physics is presented using the test data, infrared high-speed imaging and theory. The normalized test design environments are compared to various NASA semi-empirical numerical models to determine exceedance and conservatism of the flight scaled test-derived base design environments. Brief discussion of thermal impact to the launch vehicle base components is also presented.

Comparing the Global Charcoal Database with Burned Area Trends from an Offline Fire Model Driven by the NCAR Last Millennium Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to improve the agreement, but also to test the sensitivity of models to different drivers of fire.

Analysis of selected data from the triservice missile data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Jerry M.; Shaw, David S.; Sawyer, Wallace C.

1989-01-01

An extremely large, systematic, axisymmetric-body/tail-fin data base has been gathered through tests of an innovative missile model design which is described herein. These data were originally obtained for incorporation into a missile aerodynamics code based on engineering methods (Program MISSILE3), but these data are also valuable as diagnostic test cases for developing computational methods because of the individual-fin data included in the data base. Detailed analyses of four sample cases from these data are presented to illustrate interesting individual-fin force and moment trends. These samples quantitatively show how bow shock, fin orientation, fin deflection, and body vortices can produce strong, unusual, and computationally challenging effects on individual fin loads. Flow-visualization photographs are examined to provide physical insight into the cause of these effects.

Improving Academic Achievement of Students with Problematic Attendance by Implementing a Multisystemic School-Based Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kay, James Edward

2010-01-01

This study addressed the problem of poor attendance adversely affecting grades and learning. Current school policies do not address problematic attendance for all school-aged children, perpetuating trends of academic failure. The research objective was to determine if unexcused absences had a greater negative impact on a high-stakes test compared…

The Art of Partnerships: Community Resources for Arts Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowen, Daniel H.; Kisida, Brian

2017-01-01

The shift from the No Child Left Behind Act to the recently authorized Every Student Succeeds Act could beckon a renaissance of K-12 arts education in the U.S. Over the past decade, NCLB's increased emphasis on accountability testing in core subjects has coincided with a notable decline in school-based arts exposure. Recognizing this trend and…

Exploring Two Secondary Social Studies Teachers' Pedagogical Decision Making in Constrained and Flexible Curricular Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meuwissen, Kevin William

2012-01-01

With current trends in K-12 education toward curriculum centralization and high-stakes test-based accountability, teachers are in a position of increasingly adapting their practices to demands that originate beyond the classroom. A synthesis of literature on the relationship between these external influences and secondary social studies teaching…

[Descriptive analysis of work and trends in anaesthesiology from 2005 to 2006: quantitative and qualitative aspects of effects and evaluation of anaesthesia].

PubMed

Majstorović, Branislava M; Simić, Snezana; Milaković, Branko D; Vucović, Dragan S; Aleksić, Valentina V

2010-01-01

In anaesthesiology, economic aspects have been insufficiently studied. The aim of this paper was the assessment of rational choice of the anaesthesiological services based on the analysis of the scope, distribution, trend and cost. The costs of anaesthesiological services were counted based on "unit" prices from the Republic Health Insurance Fund. Data were analysed by methods of descriptive statistics and statistical significance was tested by Student's t-test and chi2-test. The number of general anaesthesia was higher and average time of general anaesthesia was shorter, without statistical significance (t-test, p = 0.436) during 2006 compared to the previous year. Local anaesthesia was significantly higher (chi2-test, p = 0.001) in relation to planned operation in emergency surgery. The analysis of total anaesthesiological procedures revealed that a number of procedures significantly increased in ENT and MFH surgery, and ophthalmology, while some reduction was observed in general surgery, orthopaedics and trauma surgery and cardiovascular surgery (chi2-test, p = 0.000). The number of analgesia was higher than other procedures (chi2-test, p = 0.000). The structure of the cost was 24% in neurosurgery, 16% in digestive (general) surgery,14% in gynaecology and obstetrics, 13% in cardiovascular surgery and 9% in emergency room. Anaesthesiological services costs were the highest in neurosurgery, due to the length anaesthesia, and digestive surgery due to the total number of general anaesthesia performed. It is important to implement pharmacoeconomic studies in all departments, and to separate the anaesthesia services for emergency and planned operations. Disproportions between the number of anaesthesia, surgery interventions and the number of patients in surgical departments gives reason to design relation database.

Planned Comparisons as Better Alternatives to ANOVA Omnibus Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benton, Roberta L.

Analyses of data are presented to illustrate the advantages of using a priori or planned comparisons rather than omnibus analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests followed by post hoc or posteriori testing. The two types of planned comparisons considered are planned orthogonal non-trend coding contrasts and orthogonal polynomial or trend contrast coding.…

Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

2017-11-01

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were identified as the most dominant meteorological variables influencing annual ETo changes. The results are expected to assist water resource managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the research region.

To Plume or Not To Plume: SC Mesozoic Diabase Dike Orientations, Stress Fields During the Break-up of Pangea, and the Feasibility of a Causal Plume.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beutel, E. K.; Alexander, M.; Kotecha, A.; Edwards, D.

2002-12-01

New compilations of Mesozoic diabase dikes in South Carolina suggest that previously unrecognized N-S and NE-SW dike orientations exist throughout the western Charlotte belt, into the Carolina belt and possible into the Laurens Thrust Stack. Previous studies indicated that the majority of dikes in South Carolina were solely NW trending. While we found that the majority of dikes did trend NW-SE, the number and size of the NE-SW and N-S trending dikes indicate that these are not mere fingers off the main NW trending dikes and are likely true swarms. Previous studies of Mesozoic diabase dikes further north along the Atlantic coast have found evidence that suggests that NW-SE trending dikes are the oldest set, the N-S trending set followed, and the NE-SW trending dikes were injected last. Based on this relationship, and the stress field that most likely existed in the crust during the injection of each dike set, we have constructed a series of evolutionary models for the break-up of Pangea. Our models are based on the assumption that the multiple overlapping swarms negate the possibility of a plume being solely responsible for the break-up or for the dikes. These models suggest a complicated history of relative motion between Africa, North America, and South America. Finite element models were run to test the feasibility of these models. Preliminary model results suggest that the extensional stresses necessary for the major dike patterns seen in northwestern Africa, northern South America, and the southeastern United States may have occurred when the relative motion of Africa was northeast of North America. Initial model runs suggest that multiple dike orientations are best accounted for by a strongly nonlinear rift trend, a temporary aulacogen in Georgia, and/or rift propagation. The affect of events in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly dependent on the location and trend of the rifts and micro-continents modeled.

Study on Antibacterial Property of PMMA Denture Base Materials with Negative Ion Powder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Meitian; Zhang, Xiaohui; Zhang, Jingting; Zheng, Qian; Liu, Bin

2018-01-01

To prepare the denture base resin with negative ion powder and evaluate the antibacterial effect of denture base resin with different contents of negative ion powder for clinical application. Method: Denture base material with negative ion powder was prepared by in-situ polymerization method, 50mm * 50mm * 2mm standard samples were prepared respectively. Antibacterial properties were tested with the film contact method. Experimental bacteria: Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC6538), Escherichia coli (ATCC8099).Result:With the increase of the amount of negative ion powder, the inhibition rate of the composite material to Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus showed an increasing trend, and the number of residual bacteria on the surface showed a decreasing trend. When the content of negative ion powder was 2%, the composite material Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli were 77.9% and 80.3% respectively. When the addition ratio was 5%, the bactericidal rate of the composite material to Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli reached 98.2% and 99.1% respectively. Conclusion: The denture base material containing more than 2%wt negative ion powder has strong sterilization.

TRENDS: A flight test relational database user's guide and reference manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bondi, M. J.; Bjorkman, W. S.; Cross, J. L.

1994-01-01

This report is designed to be a user's guide and reference manual for users intending to access rotocraft test data via TRENDS, the relational database system which was developed as a tool for the aeronautical engineer with no programming background. This report has been written to assist novice and experienced TRENDS users. TRENDS is a complete system for retrieving, searching, and analyzing both numerical and narrative data, and for displaying time history and statistical data in graphical and numerical formats. This manual provides a 'guided tour' and a 'user's guide' for the new and intermediate-skilled users. Examples for the use of each menu item within TRENDS is provided in the Menu Reference section of the manual, including full coverage for TIMEHIST, one of the key tools. This manual is written around the XV-15 Tilt Rotor database, but does include an appendix on the UH-60 Blackhawk database. This user's guide and reference manual establishes a referrable source for the research community and augments NASA TM-101025, TRENDS: The Aeronautical Post-Test, Database Management System, Jan. 1990, written by the same authors.

A Quality Improvement Collaborative Program for Neonatal Pain Management in Japan

PubMed Central

Yokoo, Kyoko; Funaba, Yuuki; Fukushima, Sayo; Fukuhara, Rie; Uchida, Mieko; Aiba, Satoru; Doi, Miki; Nishimura, Akira; Hayakawa, Masahiro; Nishimura, Yutaka; Oohira, Mitsuko

2017-01-01

Background: Neonatal pain management guidelines have been released; however, there is insufficient systematic institutional support for the adoption of evidence-based pain management in Japan. Purpose: To evaluate the impact of a collaborative quality improvement program on the implementation of pain management improvements in Japanese neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Methods: Seven Japanese level III NICUs participated in a neonatal pain management quality improvement program based on an Institute for Healthcare Improvement collaborative model. The NICUs developed evidence-based practice points for pain management and implemented these over a 12-month period. Changes were introduced through a series of Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles, and throughout the process, pain management quality indicators were tracked as performance measures. Jonckheere's trend test and the Cochran-Armitage test for trend were used to examine the changes in quality indicator implementations over time (baseline, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months). Findings: Baseline pain management data from the 7 sites revealed substantial opportunities for improvement of pain management, and testing changes in the NICU setting resulted in measurable improvements in pain management. During the intervention phase, all participating sites introduced new pain assessment tools, and all sites developed electronic medical record forms to capture pain score, interventions, and infant responses to interventions. Implications for Practice: The use of collaborative quality improvement techniques played a key role in improving pain management in the NICUs. Implications for Research: Collaborative improvement programs provide an attractive strategy for solving evidence-practice gaps in the NICU setting. PMID:28114148

Acceleration to failure in geophysical signals prior to laboratory rock failure and volcanic eruptions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Greenhough, J.; Heap, M. J.; Meredith, P. G.

2010-12-01

The nucleation processes that ultimately lead to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, rock bursts in mines, and landslides from cliff slopes are likely to be controlled at some scale by brittle failure of the Earth’s crust. In laboratory brittle deformation experiments geophysical signals commonly exhibit an accelerating trend prior to dynamic failure. Similar signals have been observed prior to volcanic eruptions, including volcano-tectonic earthquake event and moment release rates. Despite a large amount of effort in the search, no such statistically robust systematic trend is found prior to natural earthquakes. Here we describe the results of a suite of laboratory tests on Mount Etna Basalt and other rocks to examine the nature of the non-linear scaling from laboratory to field conditions, notably using laboratory ‘creep’ tests to reduce the boundary strain rate to conditions more similar to those in the field. Seismic event rate, seismic moment release rate and rate of porosity change show a classic ‘bathtub’ graph that can be derived from a simple damage model based on separate transient and accelerating sub-critical crack growth mechanisms, resulting from separate processes of negative and positive feedback in the population dynamics. The signals exhibit clear precursors based on formal statistical model tests using maximum likelihood techniques with Poisson errors. After correcting for the finite loading time of the signal, the results show a transient creep rate that decays as a classic Omori law for earthquake aftershocks, and remarkably with an exponent near unity, as commonly observed for natural earthquake sequences. The accelerating trend follows an inverse power law when fitted in retrospect, i.e. with prior knowledge of the failure time. In contrast the strain measured on the sample boundary shows a less obvious but still accelerating signal that is often absent altogether in natural strain data prior to volcanic eruptions. To test the forecasting power of such constitutive rules in prospective mode, we examine the forecast quality of several synthetic trials, by adding representative statistical fluctuations, due to finite real-time sampling effects, to an underlying accelerating trend. Metrics of forecast quality change systematically and dramatically with time. In particular the model accuracy increases, and the forecast bias decreases, as the failure time approaches.

A data base and analysis program for shuttle main engine dynamic pressure measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffin, T.

1986-01-01

A dynamic pressure data base management system is described for measurements obtained from space shuttle main engine (SSME) hot firing tests. The data were provided in terms of engine power level and rms pressure time histories, and power spectra of the dynamic pressure measurements at selected times during each test. Test measurements and engine locations are defined along with a discussion of data acquisition and reduction procedures. A description of the data base management analysis system is provided and subroutines developed for obtaining selected measurement means, variances, ranges and other statistics of interest are discussed. A summary of pressure spectra obtained at SSME rated power level is provided for reference. Application of the singular value decomposition technique to spectrum interpolation is discussed and isoplots of interpolated spectra are presented to indicate measurement trends with engine power level. Program listings of the data base management and spectrum interpolation software are given. Appendices are included to document all data base measurements.

Modelling level, trend and geographical variations in stigma and discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS in Nigeria.

PubMed

Adebayo, Samson B; Fakolade, Richard; Anyanti, Jennifer; Ekweremadu, Bright; Ladipo, Olaronke; Ankomah, Augustine

2011-01-01

People living with HIV and AIDS (PLHA) often face stigma and discrimination. Stigma is a powerful tool for social control and PLHA are to varying degrees stigmatised against. Consequences of stigma and discrimination against PLHA may result in low turn-out for HIV counselling and testing, identity crises, isolation, loneliness, low self-esteem and lack of interest in containing the disease. To achieve the millennium development goal on HIV reduction, efforts should be targeted at measuring impact of HIV preventive interventions. In this paper, effort was made to explore geographical variations in addition to level and trend of accepting attitude towards PLHA using 2003 - 2007 population-based household survey data. Inferences are based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, while model selection was based on Deviance Information Criteria. Findings revealed significant positive trend and spatial variations on level of accepting attitude towards PLHA. Level of exposure to HIV prevention interventions and perceptions about social support received on HIV are significantly associated with accepting attitude towards PLHA. Findings provide policy makers with tools to discern states where prevention efforts on HIV-related stigma and discrimination should be intensified. This in turn, can enhance an effective utilization of scarce resources that is paramount in developing countries.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Alaska

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Alaska's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grades 4 and 8 in math and grade 8 in reading. In grade 4 reading, the percentage reaching the…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Massachusetts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Massachusetts' test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 4 reading and math and grade 8 math. Average annual gains were larger on the state test…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. California

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles California's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. Average annual gains were larger on the state test…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Montana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Montana's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 4 reading and math and grade 8 reading. In grade 8 math, however, the percentage proficient…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Colorado

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Colorado's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. Average annual gains were generally larger on NAEP than…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Wisconsin

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Wisconsin's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in math at grades 4 and 8 and in reading at grade 8. In grade 4 reading, the percentage scoring…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Alabama

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Alabama's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. Average annual gains were generally larger on the state…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Florida

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Florida's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. Average annual gains were generally larger on the state…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Ohio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Ohio's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 4 reading and grade 8 math. In grade 8 reading, the percentage of students scoring proficient…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Arizona

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Arizona's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. Average annual gains were generally larger on the state…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Iowa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Iowa's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 4 reading and math and in grade 8 math. In grade 8 reading, the percentage of students reaching…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Nebraska

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Nebraska's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the percentages reaching the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased at grade 4 in both reading and math. At grade 8, however, the percentages…

Exhaust emissions from engines of the Detroit Diesel Corporation in transit buses: a decade of trends.

PubMed

Prucz, J C; Clark, N N; Gautam, M; Lyons, D W

2001-05-01

In the U.S.A., exhaust emissions from city buses fueled by diesel are not characterized well because current emission standards require engine tests rather than tests of whole vehicles. Two transportable chassis dynamometer laboratories developed and operated by West Virginia University (WVU) have been used extensively to gather realistic emission data from heavy-duty vehicles, including buses, tested in simulated driving conditions. A subset of these data has been utilized for a comprehensive introspection into the trends of regulated emissions from transit buses over the last 7 years, which has been prompted by continuously tightening restrictions on one hand, along with remarkable technological progress, on the other hand. Two widely used models of diesel engines manufactured by the Detroit Diesel Corporation (DDC) have been selected as a case-study for such an overview, based on full-scale, on-site testing of actual city buses, driven in accordance with the SAE J1376 standard of a Commercial Business District (CBD) cycle. The results provide solid, quantitative evidence that most regulated emissions from engines produced by DDC have declined over the years, especially with the transition from the 6V-92TA to the Series 50 models. This improvement is remarkable mainly for the emissions of particulate matter (PM), that are lower by over 70%, on average, for the Series 50 engines, though the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) exhibit a reversed trend, showing a degradation of about 6%, on average, with the transition from 6V-92TA to the Series 50 engines. The expected trend of decreasing emission levels with the model year of the engine is clear and consistent for particulate matter (PM), hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx), starting with the 1990 models, although it is not conclusive for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Evaluation of non-stationarity of floods in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Palmer, R. N.

2017-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States, ultimately affecting the quantity and seasonal distribution of streamflow. Such information is crucial for flood protection polices for example for regional flood frequency analysis. The objective of this study is to analyze seasonality and magnitude of long-term daily annual maximum streamflow (AMF) records and its changes for 158 sites in Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States. Temporal trends were analyzed based on two 30-year blocks (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) of AMF. Seasonality is assessed based on nonparametric directional/circular statistical method that allows for an adaptive estimation of seasonal density. The results for temporal change in seasonality showed mixed pattern/trend across the stations. While for majority of the stations, the distribution of AMF timing is strongly unimodal (concentrated around Spring season) for the earlier time period, the strength in the modes have gotten weaker during the recent time period for a number of stations along the coastal states indicating the emergence of multiple modes and change in seasonality therein. Assessment of the temporal change in magnitude of AMF based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test shows that majority of the stations do not show significant increasing or decreasing trend for either time period. It is also observed that comparatively more stations show increasing trends in magnitude based on AMF from earlier time period and most of these stations are coastal sites concentrated in the southeastern part of the region. Our study focused on both seasonality and magnitude of AMF has important implications for flood management and mitigation.

Statistical models for incorporating data from routine HIV testing of pregnant women at antenatal clinics into HIV/AIDS epidemic estimates.

PubMed

Sheng, Ben; Marsh, Kimberly; Slavkovic, Aleksandra B; Gregson, Simon; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Bao, Le

2017-04-01

HIV prevalence data collected from routine HIV testing of pregnant women at antenatal clinics (ANC-RT) are potentially available from all facilities that offer testing services to pregnant women and can be used to improve estimates of national and subnational HIV prevalence trends. We develop methods to incorporate these new data source into the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS Estimation and Projection Package in Spectrum 2017. We develop a new statistical model for incorporating ANC-RT HIV prevalence data, aggregated either to the health facility level (site-level) or regionally (census-level), to estimate HIV prevalence alongside existing sources of HIV prevalence data from ANC unlinked anonymous testing (ANC-UAT) and household-based national population surveys. Synthetic data are generated to understand how the availability of ANC-RT data affects the accuracy of various parameter estimates. We estimate HIV prevalence and additional parameters using both ANC-RT and other existing data. Fitting HIV prevalence using synthetic data generally gives precise estimates of the underlying trend and other parameters. More years of ANC-RT data should improve prevalence estimates. More ANC-RT sites and continuation with existing ANC-UAT sites may improve the estimate of calibration between ANC-UAT and ANC-RT sites. We have proposed methods to incorporate ANC-RT data into Spectrum to obtain more precise estimates of prevalence and other measures of the epidemic. Many assumptions about the accuracy, consistency, and representativeness of ANC-RT prevalence underlie the use of these data for monitoring HIV epidemic trends and should be tested as more data become available from national ANC-RT programs.

Statistical Models for Incorporating Data from Routine HIV Testing of Pregnant Women at Antenatal Clinics into HIV/AIDS Epidemic Estimates

PubMed Central

Sheng, Ben; Marsh, Kimberly; Slavkovic, Aleksandra B.; Gregson, Simon; Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Bao, Le

2017-01-01

Objective HIV prevalence data collected from routine HIV testing of pregnant women at antenatal clinics (ANC-RT) are potentially available from all facilities that offer testing services to pregnant women, and can be used to improve estimates of national and sub-national HIV prevalence trends. We develop methods to incorporate this new data source into the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) in Spectrum 2017. Methods We develop a new statistical model for incorporating ANC-RT HIV prevalence data, aggregated either to the health facility level (‘site-level’) or regionally (‘census-level’), to estimate HIV prevalence alongside existing sources of HIV prevalence data from ANC unlinked anonymous testing (ANC-UAT) and household-based national population surveys. Synthetic data are generated to understand how the availability of ANC-RT data affects the accuracy of various parameter estimates. Results We estimate HIV prevalence and additional parameters using both ANC-RT and other existing data. Fitting HIV prevalence using synthetic data generally gives precise estimates of the underlying trend and other parameters. More years of ANC-RT data should improve prevalence estimates. More ANC-RT sites and continuation with existing ANC-UAT sites may improve the estimate of calibration between ANC-UAT and ANC-RT sites. Conclusion We have proposed methods to incorporate ANC-RT data into Spectrum to obtain more precise estimates of prevalence and other measures of the epidemic. Many assumptions about the accuracy, consistency, and representativeness of ANC-RT prevalence underlie the use of these data for monitoring HIV epidemic trends, and should be tested as more data become available from national ANC-RT programs. PMID:28296804

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy and expert systems for power quality analysis and prediction of abnormal operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Wael Refaat Anis

The present research involves the development of several fuzzy expert systems for power quality analysis and diagnosis. Intelligent systems for the prediction of abnormal system operation were also developed. The performance of all intelligent modules developed was either enhanced or completely produced through adaptive fuzzy learning techniques. Neuro-fuzzy learning is the main adaptive technique utilized. The work presents a novel approach to the interpretation of power quality from the perspective of the continuous operation of a single system. The research includes an extensive literature review pertaining to the applications of intelligent systems to power quality analysis. Basic definitions and signature events related to power quality are introduced. In addition, detailed discussions of various artificial intelligence paradigms as well as wavelet theory are included. A fuzzy-based intelligent system capable of identifying normal from abnormal operation for a given system was developed. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy learning was applied to enhance its performance. A group of fuzzy expert systems that could perform full operational diagnosis were also developed successfully. The developed systems were applied to the operational diagnosis of 3-phase induction motors and rectifier bridges. A novel approach for learning power quality waveforms and trends was developed. The technique, which is adaptive neuro fuzzy-based, learned, compressed, and stored the waveform data. The new technique was successfully tested using a wide variety of power quality signature waveforms, and using real site data. The trend-learning technique was incorporated into a fuzzy expert system that was designed to predict abnormal operation of a monitored system. The intelligent system learns and stores, in compressed format, trends leading to abnormal operation. The system then compares incoming data to the retained trends continuously. If the incoming data matches any of the learned trends, an alarm is instigated predicting the advent of system abnormal operation. The incoming data could be compared to previous trends as well as matched to trends developed through computer simulations and stored using fuzzy learning.

Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

PubMed

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

2015-03-01

In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Applying Flammability Limit Probabilities and the Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure Concept to NASA STD-6001 Test 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Sandra L.; Beeson, Harold; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos

2014-01-01

Repeated Test 1 extinction tests near the upward flammability limit are expected to follow a Poisson process trend. This Poisson process trend suggests that rather than define a ULOI and MOC (which requires two limits to be determined), it might be better to define a single upward limit as being where 1/e (where e (approx. equal to 2.7183) is the characteristic time of the normalized Poisson process) of the materials burn, or, rounding, where approximately 1/3 of the samples fail the test (and burn). Recognizing that spacecraft atmospheres will not bound the entire oxygen-pressure parameter space, but actually lie along the normoxic atmosphere control band, we can focus the materials flammability testing along this normoxic band. A Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure (NULP) is defined that determines the minimum safe total pressure for a material within the constant partial pressure control band. Then, increasing this pressure limit by a factor of safety, we can define the material as being safe to use at the NULP + SF (where SF is on the order of 10 kilopascal, based on existing flammability data). It is recommended that the thickest material to be tested with the current Test 1 igniter should be 3 mm thick (1/8 inches) to avoid the problem of differentiating between an ignition limit and a true flammability limit.

The effect of fuel processes on heavy duty automotive diesel engine emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, E.G.

1995-12-31

The effect of fuel quality on exhaust emissions from 2 heavy duty diesel engines has been measured over the ECE R49 test cycle. The engines were selected to represent technologies used to meet Euro 1 and 2 emission standards (1992/93 and 1995/96); engines 1 and 2 respectively. The test fuels were prepared by a combination of processing, blending and additive treatment. When comparing the emissions from engines 1 and 2, using base line data generated on the CEC reference fuel RF73-T-90, engine technology had the major effect on emission levels. Engine 2 reduced both particulate matter (PM) and carbon monoxidemore » levels by approximately 50%, with total hydrocarbon (THC) being approximately 75% lower. Oxides of nitrogen levels were similar for both engines. The variations in test fuel quality had marginal effects on emissions, with the two engines giving directionally opposite responses in some cases. For instance, there was an effect on CO and NOx but where one engine showed a reduction the other gave an increase. There were no significant changes in THC emissions from either engine when operating on any of the test fuels. When the reference fuel was hydrotreated, engine 1 showed a trend towards reduced particulate and NOx but with CO increasing. Engine 2 also showed a trend for reduced particulate levels, with an increase in NOx and no change in CO. Processing to reduce the final boiling point of the reference fuel showed a trend towards reduced particulate emissions with CO increasing on engine 1 but decreasing on engine 2.« less

Using Combined Diagnostic Test Results to Hindcast Trends of Infection from Cross-Sectional Data

PubMed Central

Rydevik, Gustaf; Innocent, Giles T.; Marion, Glenn; White, Piran C. L.; Billinis, Charalambos; Barrow, Paul; Mertens, Peter P. C.; Gavier-Widén, Dolores; Hutchings, Michael R.

2016-01-01

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to ‘hindcast’ (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time. PMID:27384712

Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; McHale, M. R.; Kolian, M. J.; Renard, B.

2017-04-01

Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2 days (1.1 days/decade) and 8.6 days (1.6 days/decade) for 1940-2014 and 1960-2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation (<1600 m) basins in the West, predominantly located in the Northwest, had median earlier WSCVD by 6.8 days (1940-2014, 0.9 days/decade) and 3.4 days (1960-2014, 0.6 days/decade). Streamflow timing at high-elevation (⩾1600 m) basins in the West had median earlier WSCVD by 4.0 days (1940-2014, 0.5 days/decade) and 5.2 days (1960-2014, 0.9 days/decade). Trends toward earlier WSCVD in the Northwest were not statistically significant, differing from previous studies that observed many large and (or) significant trends in this region. Much of this difference is likely due to the sensitivity of trend tests to the time period being tested, as well as differences in the streamflow timing metrics used among the studies. Mean February-May air temperature was significantly correlated with WSCVD at 100 percent of the study gages (field significant, p < 0.0001), demonstrating the sensitivity of WSCVD to air temperature across snowmelt dominated basins in the U.S. WSCVD in high elevation basins in the West, however, was related to both air temperature and precipitation yielding earlier snowmelt-related streamflow timing under warmer and drier conditions.

Prevalence, Trend and Determining Factors of Gestational Diabetes in Germany.

PubMed

Huy, C; Loerbroks, A; Hornemann, A; Röhrig, S; Schneider, S

2012-04-01

Purpose: The true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany is unknown. Thus, the study's purposes were to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes as well as to describe the temporal prevalence trend and to identify determinants. Material and Methods: We calculated prevalence estimates based on two datasets: the register-based German perinatal statistic (n = 650 232) and the maternal self-reports from the German children and youth health survey (KiGGS; n = 15 429). Differences between prevalence estimates were analysed using χ 2 and trend tests, and determinants were identified using logistic regression. Results: According to the perinatal statistic, gestational diabetes was present in 3.7 % of pregnant women in Germany in 2010. The prevalence across the years 2001 to 2006 was estimated at 1.9 % which differed significantly from the prevalence estimate derived from the KiGGS dataset for the same period of time (5.3 %; 95 % confidence interval: 4.6-6.1 %). Both datasets show an increasing trend of gestational diabetes (p < 0.001). The risk for gestational diabetes was mainly associated with age, BMI and social class of pregnant women as well as with multiple pregnancies. Conclusion: The lack of significant screening studies among representative samples hampers a sound estimation of the true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany. The increasing trend in gestational diabetes might continue due to the projected increase of important risk factors (e.g., maternal age, obesity). Our analyses support the current consensus recommendations regarding standardised gestational diabetes screening.

Spatio-Temporal Trends of Fire in Slash and Burn Agriculture Landscape: A Case Study from Nagaland, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padalia, H.; Mondal, P. P.

2014-11-01

Increasing incidences of fire from land conversion and residue burning in tropics is the major concern in global warming. Spatial and temporal monitoring of trends of fire incidences is, therefore, significant in order to determine contribution of carbon emissions from slash and burn agriculture. In this study, we analyzed time-series Terra / Aqua MODIS satellite hotspot products from 2001 to 2013 to derive intra- and inter-annual trends in fire incidences in Nagaland state, located in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Time-series regression was applied to MODIS fire products at variable spatial scales in GIS. Significance of change in fire frequency at each grid level was tested using t statistic. Spatial clustering of higher or lower fire incidences across study area was determined using Getis-OrdGi statistic. Maximum fire incidences were encountered in moist mixed deciduous forests (46%) followed by secondary moist bamboo brakes (30%). In most parts of the study area fire incidences peaked during March while in warmer parts (e.g. Mon district dominated by indigenous people) fire activity starts as early as during November and peaks in January. Regression trend analysis captured noticeable areas with statistically significant positive (e.g. Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon, Tuensang and Kiphire districts) and negative (e.g. Kohima and north-western part of Mokokchung district) inter-annual fire frequency trends based on area-based aggregation of fire occurrences at different grid sizes. Localization of spatial clusters of high fire incidences was observed in Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon,Tuensang and Kiphire districts.

Triennial changes in groundwater quality in aquifers used for public supply in California: Utility as indicators of temporal trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kent, Robert; Landon, Matthew K.

2016-01-01

From 2004 to 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples from 1686 wells across the State of California as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board’s Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP). From 2007 to 2013, 224 of these wells were resampled to assess temporal trends in water quality. The samples were analyzed for 216 water-quality constituents, including inorganic and organic compounds as well as isotopic tracers. The resampled wells were grouped into five hydrogeologic zones. A nonparametric hypothesis test was used to test the differences between initial sampling and resampling results to evaluate possible step trends in water-quality, statewide, and within each hydrogeologic zone. The hypothesis tests were performed on the 79 constituents that were detected in more than 5 % of the samples collected during either sampling period in at least one hydrogeologic zone. Step trends were detected for 17 constituents. Increasing trends were detected for alkalinity, aluminum, beryllium, boron, lithium, orthophosphate, perchlorate, sodium, and specific conductance. Decreasing trends were detected for atrazine, cobalt, dissolved oxygen, lead, nickel, pH, simazine, and tritium. Tritium was expected to decrease due to decreasing values in precipitation, and the detection of decreases indicates that the method is capable of resolving temporal trends.

Dry spells assessment with reference to the maize crop in the Luvuvhu River catchment of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masupha, Teboho Elisa; Moeletsi, Mokhele Edmond; Tsubo, Mitsuru

2016-04-01

Agricultural productivity in South Africa is negatively affected by drought as a result of frequent periodic dry spells and increasing crop water demands resulting in poor crop development and low yields. Thus, we embarked on this study which aims at investigating dry spell occurrences in relation to growing season of maize in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Daily rainfall data (1945-2014) from 12 stations which represent the catchment fairly well was utilized in this study. Three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on three consecutive onsets of the rainy season. Dry spells were categorized into three groups: short, medium and long dry spells. The data was then subjected to theoretical distribution fitting using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test; and probabilities of occurrence were computed using a probabilistic model that best fits the data. Trend analysis was performed on the frequency of dry spells per growing period using the non-parametric Spearman's rank correlation test. Out results indicated high probabilities (≥80%) of short dry spells at all the stations irrespective of the timing of planting. Further analysis revealed that a risk of yield reduction with planting following the first onset of rains was higher than that with planting following the second and third onsets. In order to minimize this risk, farmers can be advised to plant between mid-November to mid-December. Trend analysis indicated no trend for all the various dry spell lengths except for Thohoyandou with a decreasing trend and Sigonde with a weak increasing trend in long dry spells. Such findings can be used to describe drought conditions for improvement of agricultural productivity and food security, in a given area.

Combined multivariate statistical techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI) and Daniel Trend Test methods to evaluate temporal and spatial variations and trends of water quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China.

PubMed

Wang, Quan; Wu, Xianhua; Zhao, Bin; Qin, Jie; Peng, Tingchun

2015-01-01

Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI), Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season). Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites) and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites) based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium) is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages.

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2013-06-01

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

Combined Multivariate Statistical Techniques, Water Pollution Index (WPI) and Daniel Trend Test Methods to Evaluate Temporal and Spatial Variations and Trends of Water Quality at Shanchong River in the Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Quan; Wu, Xianhua; Zhao, Bin; Qin, Jie; Peng, Tingchun

2015-01-01

Understanding spatial and temporal variations in river water quality and quantitatively evaluating the trend of changes are important in order to study and efficiently manage water resources. In this study, an analysis of Water Pollution Index (WPI), Daniel Trend Test, Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis are applied as an integrated approach to quantitatively explore the spatial and temporal variations and the latent sources of water pollution in the Shanchong River basin, Northwest Basin of Lake Fuxian, China. We group all field surveys into 2 clusters (dry season and rainy season). Moreover, 14 sampling sites have been grouped into 3 clusters for the rainy season (highly polluted, moderately polluted and less polluted sites) and 2 clusters for the dry season (highly polluted and less polluted sites) based on their similarities and the level of pollution during the two seasons. The results show that the main trend of pollution was aggravated during the transition from the dry to the rainy season. The Water Pollution Index of Total Nitrogen is the highest of all pollution parameters, whereas the Chemical Oxygen Demand (Chromium) is the lowest. Our results also show that the main sources of pollution are farming activities alongside the Shanchong River, soil erosion and fish culture at Shanchong River reservoir area and domestic sewage from scattered rural residential area. Our results suggest that strategies to prevent water pollutionat the Shanchong River basin need to focus on non-point pollution control by employing appropriate fertilizer formulas in farming, and take the measures of soil and water conservation at Shanchong reservoir area, and purifying sewage from scattered villages. PMID:25837673

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-22

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Evaluation of the initial thematic output from a continuous change-detection algorithm for use in automated operational land-change mapping by the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pengra, Bruce; Gallant, Alisa L.; Zhu, Zhe; Dahal, Devendra

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun the development of operational, 30-m resolution annual thematic land cover data to meet the needs of a variety of land cover data users. The Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm is being evaluated as the likely methodology following early trials. Data for training and testing of CCDC thematic maps have been provided by the USGS Land Cover Trends (LC Trends) project, which offers sample-based, manually classified thematic land cover data at 2755 probabilistically located sample blocks across the conterminous United States. These samples represent a high quality, well distributed source of data to train the Random Forest classifier invoked by CCDC. We evaluated the suitability of LC Trends data to train the classifier by assessing the agreement of annual land cover maps output from CCDC with output from the LC Trends project within 14 Landsat path/row locations across the conterminous United States. We used a small subset of circa 2000 data from the LC Trends project to train the classifier, reserving the remaining Trends data from 2000, and incorporating LC Trends data from 1992, to evaluate measures of agreement across time, space, and thematic classes, and to characterize disagreement. Overall agreement ranged from 75% to 98% across the path/rows, and results were largely consistent across time. Land cover types that were well represented in the training data tended to have higher rates of agreement between LC Trends and CCDC outputs. Characteristics of disagreement are being used to improve the use of LC Trends data as a continued source of training information for operational production of annual land cover maps.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. New Mexico

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles New Mexico's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 4 math and grade 8 reading and math. In grade 4 reading, the percentage basic on NAEP …

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Texas' test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in reading at grades 4 and 8 and in math at grade 8. In grade 4 math, however, the percentage scoring…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. North Dakota

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles North Dakota's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentage of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. Average annual gains were larger on the state test…

Flight-Test Evaluation of Flutter-Prediction Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, RIck; Brenner, Marty

2003-01-01

The flight-test community routinely spends considerable time and money to determine a range of flight conditions, called a flight envelope, within which an aircraft is safe to fly. The cost of determining a flight envelope could be greatly reduced if there were a method of safely and accurately predicting the speed associated with the onset of an instability called flutter. Several methods have been developed with the goal of predicting flutter speeds to improve the efficiency of flight testing. These methods include (1) data-based methods, in which one relies entirely on information obtained from the flight tests and (2) model-based approaches, in which one relies on a combination of flight data and theoretical models. The data-driven methods include one based on extrapolation of damping trends, one that involves an envelope function, one that involves the Zimmerman-Weissenburger flutter margin, and one that involves a discrete-time auto-regressive model. An example of a model-based approach is that of the flutterometer. These methods have all been shown to be theoretically valid and have been demonstrated on simple test cases; however, until now, they have not been thoroughly evaluated in flight tests. An experimental apparatus called the Aerostructures Test Wing (ATW) was developed to test these prediction methods.

A long-term validation of the modernised DC-ARC-OES solid-sample method.

PubMed

Flórián, K; Hassler, J; Förster, O

2001-12-01

The validation procedure based on ISO 17025 standard has been used to study and illustrate both the longterm stability of the calibration process of the DC-ARC solid sample spectrometric method and the main validation criteria of the method. In the calculation of the validation characteristics depending on the linearity(calibration), also the fulfilment of predetermining criteria such as normality and homoscedasticity was checked. In order to decide whether there are any trends in the time-variation of the analytical signal or not, also the Neumann test of trend was applied and evaluated. Finally, a comparison with similar validation data of the ETV-ICP-OES method was carried out.

Single- versus Double-Scoring of Trend Responses in Trend Score Equating with Constructed-Response Tests. Research Report. ETS RR-10-12

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan, Xuan; Ricker, Kathryn L.; Puhan, Gautam

2010-01-01

This study examines the differences in equating outcomes between two trend score equating designs resulting from two different scoring strategies for trend scoring when operational constructed-response (CR) items are double-scored--the single group (SG) design, where each trend CR item is double-scored, and the nonequivalent groups with anchor…

Detection of spatio-temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation based on long-term meteorological station observations over Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Min; Kang, Shichang; Wu, Hao; Yuan, Xu

2018-05-01

As abundant distribution of glaciers and snow, the Tianshan Mountains are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Based on meteorological station records during 1960-2016, we detected the variations of air temperature and precipitation by using non-parametric method in the different sub-regions and different elevations of the Tianshan Mountains. The mutations of climate were investigated by Mann-Kendall abrupt change test in the sub-regions. The periodicity is examined by wavelet analysis employing a chi-square test and detecting significant time sections. The results show that the Tianshan Mountains experienced an overall rapid warming and wetting during study period, with average warming rate of 0.32 °C/10a and wet rate of 5.82 mm/10a, respectively. The annual and seasonal spatial variation of temperature showed different scales in different regions. The annual precipitation showed non-significant upward trend in 20 stations, and 6 stations showed a significant upward trend. The temperatures in the East Tianshan increased most rapidly at rates of 0.41 °C/10a. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the Boertala Vally (8.07 mm/10a) and lowest in the East Tianshan (2.64 mm/10a). The greatest and weakest warming was below 500 m (0.42 °C/10a) and elevation of 1000-1500 m (0.23 °C/10a), respectively. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the elevation of 1500 m-2000 m (9.22 mm/10a) and lowest in the elevation of below 500 m (3.45 mm/10a). The mutations of annual air temperature and precipitation occurred in 1995 and 1990, respectively. The large atmospheric circulation influenced on the mutations of climate. The significant periods of air temperature were 2.4-4.1 years, and annual precipitation was 2.5-7.4 years. Elevation dependency of temperature trend magnitude was not evidently in the Tianshan Mountains. The annual precipitation wetting trend was amplified with elevation in summer and autumn. The strong elevation dependence of precipitation increasing trend appeared in summer.

Study on homogenization of synthetic GNSS-retrieved IWV time series and its impact on trend estimates with autoregressive noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klos, Anna; Pottiaux, Eric; Van Malderen, Roeland; Bock, Olivier; Bogusz, Janusz

2017-04-01

A synthetic benchmark dataset of Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) was created within the activity of "Data homogenisation" of sub-working group WG3 of COST ES1206 Action. The benchmark dataset was created basing on the analysis of IWV differences retrieved by Global Positioning System (GPS) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecats (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). Having analysed a set of 120 series of IWV differences (ERAI-GPS) derived for IGS stations, we delivered parameters of a number of gaps and breaks for every certain station. Moreover, we estimated values of trends, significant seasonalities and character of residuals when deterministic model was removed. We tested five different noise models and found that a combination of white and autoregressive processes of first order describes the stochastic part with a good accuracy. Basing on this analysis, we performed Monte Carlo simulations of 25 years long data with two different types of noise: white as well as combination of white and autoregressive processes. We also added few strictly defined offsets, creating three variants of synthetic dataset: easy, less-complicated and fully-complicated. The 'Easy' dataset included seasonal signals (annual, semi-annual, 3 and 4 months if present for a particular station), offsets and white noise. The 'Less-complicated' dataset included above-mentioned, as well as the combination of white and first order autoregressive processes (AR(1)+WH). The 'Fully-complicated' dataset included, beyond above, a trend and gaps. In this research, we show the impact of manual homogenisation on the estimates of trend and its error. We also cross-compare the results for three above-mentioned datasets, as the synthetized noise type might have a significant influence on manual homogenisation. Therefore, it might mostly affect the values of trend and their uncertainties when inappropriately handled. In a future, the synthetic dataset we present is going to be used as a benchmark to test various statistical tools in terms of homogenisation task.

Impacts of climate change on the trends of extreme rainfall indices and values of maximum precipitation at Olimpiyat Station, Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa; Altunkaynak, Abdusselam

2018-03-01

In this study, extreme rainfall indices of Olimpiyat Station were determined from reference period (1971-2000) and future period (2070-2099) daily rainfall data projected using the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M global circulation models (GCMs) and downscaled by the RegCM4.3.4 regional model under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend statistics was used to detect trends in the indices of each group, and the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed ranks test was employed to identify the presence of differences among the values of the rainfall indices of the three groups. Moreover, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method was used to undertake frequency analysis and estimate the maximum 24-h rainfall values of various return periods. The results of the M-K-based trend analyses showed that there are insignificant increasing trends in most of the extreme rainfall indices. However, based on the Wilcoxon signed ranks test, the values of the extreme rainfall indices determined for the future period, particularly under RCP8.5, were found to be significantly different from the corresponding values determined for the reference period. The maximum 24-h rainfall amounts of the 50-year return period of the future period under RCP4.5 of the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs were found to be larger (by 5.85%) than the corresponding value of the reference period by 5.85 and 21.43%, respectively. The results also showed that the maximum 24-h rainfall amount under RCP8.5 of both the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M GCMs was found to be greater (34.33 and 12.18%, respectively, for the 50-year return period) than the reference period values. This may increase the risk of flooding in Ayamama Watershed, and thus, studying the effects of the predicted amount of rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario on the flooding risk of Ayamama Watershed and devising management strategies are recommended to enhance the design and implementation of adaptation measures.

Leukemia in Iran: Epidemiology and Morphology Trends.

PubMed

Koohi, Fatemeh; Salehiniya, Hamid; Shamlou, Reza; Eslami, Soheyla; Ghojogh, Ziyaeddin Mahery; Kor, Yones; Rafiemanesh, Hosein

2015-01-01

Leukemia accounts for 8% of total cancer cases and involves all age groups with different prevalence and incidence rates in Iran and the entire world and causes a significant death toll and heavy expenses for diagnosis and treatment processes. This study was done to evaluate epidemiology and morphology of blood cancer during 2003-2008. This cross- sectional study was carried out based on re- analysis of the Cancer Registry Center report of the Health Deputy in Iran during a 6-year period (2003 - 2008). Statistical analysis for incidence time trends and morphology change percentage was performed with joinpoint regression analysis using the software Joinpoint Regression Program. During the studied years a total of 18,353 hematopoietic and reticuloendothelial system cancers were recorded. Chi square test showed significant difference between sex and morphological types of blood cancer (P-value<0.001). Joinpoint analysis showed a significant increasing trend for the adjusted standard incidence rate (ASIR) for both sexes (P-value<0.05). Annual percent changes (APC) for women and men were 18.7 and 19.9, respectively. The most common morphological blood cancers were ALL, ALM, MM and CLL which accounted for 60% of total hematopoietic system cancers. Joinpoint analyze showed a significant decreasing trend for ALM in both sexes (P-value<0.05). Hematopoietic system cancers in Iran demonstrate an increasing trend for incidence rate and decreasing trend for ALL, ALM and CLL morphology.

Temporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study.

PubMed

Jean, Sonia; Hudson, Marie; Gamache, Philippe; Bessette, Louis; Fortin, Paul R; Boire, Gilles; Bernatsky, Sasha

2017-12-01

Health administrative data are a potentially efficient resource to conduct population-based research and surveillance, including trends in incidence and mortality over time. Our objective was to explore time trends in incidence and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as well as estimating period prevalence. Our RA case definition was based on one or more hospitalizations with a RA diagnosis code, or three or more RA physician-billing codes, over 2 years, with at least one RA billing code by a rheumatologist, orthopedic surgeon, or internist. To identify incident cases, a "run-in" period of 5 years (1996-2000) was used to exclude prevalent cases. Crude age and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated (using data from 2001 to 2015), and sex-specific incidence rates were also standardized to the 2001 age structure of the Quebec population. We linked the RA cohort (both prevalent and incident patients) to the vital statistics registry, and standardized mortality rate ratios were generated. Negative binomial regression was used to test for linear change in standardized incidence rates and mortality ratios. The linear trends in standardized incidence rates did not show significant change over the study period. Mortality in RA was significantly higher than the general population and this remained true throughout the study period. Our prevalence estimate suggested 0.8% of the Quebec population may be affected by RA. RA incidence appeared relatively stable, and mortality was substantially higher in RA versus the general population and remained so over the study period. This suggests the need to optimize long-term RA outcomes.

Trend-Residual Dual Modeling for Detection of Outliers in Low-Cost GPS Trajectories

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaojian; Cui, Tingting; Fu, Jianhong; Peng, Jianwei; Shan, Jie

2016-01-01

Low-cost GPS (receiver) has become a ubiquitous and integral part of our daily life. Despite noticeable advantages such as being cheap, small, light, and easy to use, its limited positioning accuracy devalues and hampers its wide applications for reliable mapping and analysis. Two conventional techniques to remove outliers in a GPS trajectory are thresholding and Kalman-based methods, which are difficult in selecting appropriate thresholds and modeling the trajectories. Moreover, they are insensitive to medium and small outliers, especially for low-sample-rate trajectories. This paper proposes a model-based GPS trajectory cleaner. Rather than examining speed and acceleration or assuming a pre-determined trajectory model, we first use cubic smooth spline to adaptively model the trend of the trajectory. The residuals, i.e., the differences between the trend and GPS measurements, are then further modeled by time series method. Outliers are detected by scoring the residuals at every GPS trajectory point. Comparing to the conventional procedures, the trend-residual dual modeling approach has the following features: (a) it is able to model trajectories and detect outliers adaptively; (b) only one critical value for outlier scores needs to be set; (c) it is able to robustly detect unapparent outliers; and (d) it is effective in cleaning outliers for GPS trajectories with low sample rates. Tests are carried out on three real-world GPS trajectories datasets. The evaluation demonstrates an average of 9.27 times better performance in outlier detection for GPS trajectories than thresholding and Kalman-based techniques. PMID:27916944

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Is maternal plasma DNA testing impacting serum-based screening for aneuploidy in the United States?

PubMed

Palomaki, Glenn E; Ashwood, Edward R; Best, Robert G; Lambert-Messerlian, Geralyn; Knight, George J

2015-11-01

We sought to determine whether tests for fetal aneuploidy based on next-generation sequencing of cell-free DNA in maternal circulation have had an impact on routine serum-based screening in the general pregnant population. We compared results from laboratory surveys in 2011 and 2014 that reported types of prenatal serum screening tests and numbers of tests performed. Testing records from two prenatal serum screening laboratories examined temporal trends in the proportion of screened women 35 years of age and older from 2008 (or 2009) to 2014. The 82 laboratory survey results available for comparison showed that 1.7 million women were screened in 2014, a 5% increase over 2011. In the two screening laboratories, the proportion of screened women age 35 and older increased for several years but then experienced reductions of 8 and 18% by mid-2014 when compared with the highest rates observed. As of 2014, maternal plasma DNA testing appears to have had only a minor impact on serum screening rates in the United States. Ongoing surveillance has the potential to determine if, and when, DNA testing begins to replace serum testing as a primary screen for Down syndrome in the United States.

Data Used in Analyses of Trends, and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Loads for Streams in the Southeastern United States, 1973-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staub, Erik L.; Peak, Kelly L.; Tighe, Kirsten C.; Sadorf, Eric M.; Harned, Douglas A.

2010-01-01

Water-quality data from selected surface-water monitoring sites in the Southeastern United States were assessed for trends in concentrations of nutrients, suspended sediment, and major constituents and for in-stream nutrient and suspended-sediment loads for the period 1973-2005. The area of interest includes river basins draining into the southern Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Tennessee River-drainage basins in Hydrologic Regions 03 (South Atlantic - Gulf) and 06 (Tennessee). This data assessment is related to studies of several major river basins as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, which was designed to assess national water-quality trends during a common time period (1993-2004). Included in this report are data on which trend tests could be performed from 44 U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) sampling sites. The constituents examined include major ions, nutrients, and suspended sediment; the physical properties examined include pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and streamflow. Also included are data that were tested for trends from an additional 290 sites from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storage and Retrieval (STORET) database. The trend analyses of the STORET data were limited to total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations. Data from 48 U.S. Geological Survey NWIS sampling sites with sufficient water-quality and continuous streamflow data for estimating nutrient and sediment loads are included. The methods of data compilation and modification used prior to performing trend tests and load estimation are described. Results of the seasonal Kendall trend test and the Tobit trend test are given for the 334 monitoring sites, and in-stream load estimates are given for the 48 monitoring sites. Basin characteristics are provided, including regional landscape variables and agricultural nutrient sources (annual variations in cropping and fertilizer use). The data and results presented in this report are in tabular format and can be downloaded and used by environmental researchers and water managers, particularly in the Southeast.

Validation of test-day models for genetic evaluation of dairy goats in Norway.

PubMed

Andonov, S; Ødegård, J; Boman, I A; Svendsen, M; Holme, I J; Adnøy, T; Vukovic, V; Klemetsdal, G

2007-10-01

Test-day data for daily milk yield and fat, protein, and lactose content were sampled from the years 1988 to 2003 in 17 flocks belonging to 2 genetically well-tied buck circles. In total, records from 2,111 to 2,215 goats for content traits and 2,371 goats for daily milk yield were included in the analysis, averaging 2.6 and 4.8 observations per goat for the 2 groups of traits, respectively. The data were analyzed by using 4 test-day models with different modeling of fixed effects. Model [0] (the reference model) contained a fixed effect of year-season of kidding with regression on Ali-Schaeffer polynomials nested within the year-season classes, and a random effect of flock test-day. In model [1], the lactation curve effect from model [0] was replaced by a fixed effect of days in milk (in 3-d periods), the same for all year-seasons of kidding. Models [2] and [3] were obtained from model [1] by removing the fixed year-season of kidding effect and considering the flock test-day effect as either fixed or random, respectively. The models were compared by using 2 criteria: mean-squared error of prediction and a test of bias affecting the genetic trend. The first criterion indicated a preference for model [3], whereas the second criterion preferred model [1]. Mean-squared error of prediction is based on model fit, whereas the second criterion tests the ability of the model to produce unbiased genetic evaluation (i.e., its capability of separating environmental and genetic time trends). Thus, a fixed structure with year (year, year-season, or possibly flock-year) was indicated to appropriately separate time trends. Heritability estimates for daily milk yield and milk content were 0.26 and 0.24 to 0.27, respectively.

Inverse sequential procedures for the monitoring of time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1995-01-01

When one or more new values are added to a developing time series, they change its descriptive parameters (mean, variance, trend, coherence). A 'change index (CI)' is developed as a quantitative indicator that the changed parameters remain compatible with the existing 'base' data. CI formulate are derived, in terms of normalized likelihood ratios, for small samples from Poisson, Gaussian, and Chi-Square distributions, and for regression coefficients measuring linear or exponential trends. A substantial parameter change creates a rapid or abrupt CI decrease which persists when the length of the bases is changed. Except for a special Gaussian case, the CI has no simple explicit regions for tests of hypotheses. However, its design ensures that the series sampled need not conform strictly to the distribution form assumed for the parameter estimates. The use of the CI is illustrated with both constructed and observed data samples, processed with a Fortran code 'Sequitor'.

Dry spell trend analysis in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin using daily rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muita, R. R.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.

2012-04-01

Important agricultural areas in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia are largely semi-arid to arid. Persistent dry periods and timing of dry spells directly impact the availability of soil moisture and hence crop production in these regions. Most studies focus on the analysis of dry spell lengths at an annual scale. However, timing and length of dry spells at finer temporal scales is more beneficial for cropping when considering a trade-off between the time scale and the ability to analyse dry spell length. The aim of this study was to analyse the interannual and intra annual variations in dry spell lengths in the regions to inform crop management. This study analysed monthly dry spells based on daily rainfall for 1961-2010 on a limited dataset of 13 locations in Kenya and 17 locations in the MDB. This dataset was the most consistent across both regions and future analysis will incorporate more stations and longer time periods where available. Dry spell lengths were analysed by month and year and trends in monthly and annual dry spell lengths were analysed using Generalised Linear Models (GLM) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Overall, monthly dryspell lengths are right skewed with higher frequency of shorter dryspells (3-25 days). In Kenya, significant increases in mean dry spell lengths (p≤0.02) are observed in inland arid-to semi humid locations but this temporal trend appears to decrease in highland and the coastal regions. Analysis of the MDB stations suggests changes in seasonality. For example, spatial trends suggest a North-South increase in dry spell length in summer (December - February), but a shortening after February. Generally, the GLM and MK results are similar in the two regions but the MK test tends to give higher values of positive slope coefficients and lower values for negative coefficients compared to GLM. This may limit the ability of finding the best estimates for model coefficients. Previous studies in Australia and Kenya have relied on continuous climatic indices based on global climate models and stochastic processes resulting in limited and mixed results. For agronomical purposes, our results show that direct assessment of dry spells lengths from daily rainfall also indicates changes in dry spells trends in Kenya and the MDB and that such an analysis is easy to use and requires limited assumptions. This initial analysis identifies significant increasing trends in the dry spell lengths in some areas and periods in Kenya and the MDB. This has major implications for crop production in these regions and it is recommended that this information be incorporated in the regions' management decisions. KEY WORDS: monthly dry spell length; Generalized Linear Models; Mann -Kendall test; month; Kenya, Murray Darling Basin (MDB).

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 2: Slow and Uneven Progress in Narrowing Gaps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kober, Nancy; Chudowsky, Naomi; Chudowsky, Victor

2010-01-01

After eight years of implementing the federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) and other school reforms, how much progress have states, school districts, and schools made in raising achievement for students from all backgrounds and closing achievement gaps based on race, ethnicity, income, and gender? To help answer this question, the Center on…

Correlation-based network analysis of metabolite and enzyme profiles reveals a role of citrate biosynthesis in modulating N and C metabolism in zea mays

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To investigate the natural variability of leaf metabolism and enzymatic activity in a maize inbred population, statistical and network analyses were employed on metabolite and enzyme profiles. The test of coefficient of variation showed that sugars and amino acids displayed opposite trends in their ...

Developmental Patterns of Social Trust between Early and Late Adolescence: Age and School Climate Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flanagan, Constance A.; Stout, Michael

2010-01-01

Social trust (i.e., belief that people are generally fair and trustworthy) is important to the functioning of democracies, and trend studies show it has declined. We test hypotheses concerning the development of these beliefs in adolescence. Based on surveys of 1,535 adolescents collected over 2 years, we find that middle and late adolescents had…

Observed changes in relative humidity and dew point temperature in coastal regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P.; Sabziparvar, A. A.; Tabari, Hossein

2012-12-01

The analysis of trends in hydroclimatic parameters and assessment of their statistical significance have recently received a great concern to clarify whether or not there is an obvious climate change. In the current study, parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests were applied for detecting annual and seasonal trends in the relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature ( T dew) time series at ten coastal weather stations in Iran during 1966-2005. The serial structure of the data was considered, and the significant serial correlations were eliminated using the trend-free pre-whitening method. The results showed that annual RH increased by 1.03 and 0.28 %/decade at the northern and southern coastal regions of the country, respectively, while annual T dew increased by 0.29 and 0.15°C per decade at the northern and southern regions, respectively. The significant trends were frequent in the T dew series, but they were observed only at 2 out of the 50 RH series. The results showed that the difference between the results of the parametric and nonparametric tests was small, although the parametric test detected larger significant trends in the RH and T dew time series. Furthermore, the differences between the results of the trend tests were not related to the normality of the statistical distribution.

How Changes in Families and Schools Are Related to Trends in Black-White Test Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berends, Mark; Lucas, Samuel R.; Penaloza, Roberto V.

2008-01-01

Through several decades of research, a great deal has been written about trends in black-white test scores and the factors that may explain the gaps in different subject areas. Only a few studies have examined the changing relationships between gaps in students' test scores and family and school measures in nationally representative data over…

Effect of Abdominal Loading Location on Liver Motion: Experimental Assessment using Ultrafast Ultrasound Imaging and Simulation with a Human Body Model.

PubMed

Le Ruyet, Anicet; Berthet, Fabien; Rongiéras, Frédéric; Beillas, Philippe

2016-11-01

A protocol based on ultrafast ultrasound imaging was applied to study the in situ motion of the liver while the abdomen was subjected to compressive loading at 3 m/s by a hemispherical impactor or a seatbelt. The loading was applied to various locations between the lower abdomen and the mid thorax while feature points inside the liver were followed on the ultrasound movie (2000 frames per second). Based on tests performed on five post mortem human surrogates (including four tested in the current study), trends were found between the loading location and feature point trajectory parameters such as the initial angle of motion or the peak displacement in the direction of impact. The impactor tests were then simulated using the GHBMC M50 human body model that was globally scaled to the dimensions of each surrogate. Some of the experimental trends observed could be reproduced in the simulations (e.g. initial angle) while others differed more widely (e.g. final caudal motion). The causes for the discrepancies need to be further investigated. The liver strain energy density predicted by the model was also widely affected by the impact location. Experimental and simulation results both highlight the importance of the liver position with respect to the impactor when studying its response in situ.

The Effect of the MassHealth Hospital Pay-for-Performance Program on Quality

PubMed Central

Ryan, Andrew M; Blustein, Jan

2011-01-01

Objective To test the effect of Massachusetts Medicaid's (MassHealth) hospital-based pay-for-performance (P4P) program, implemented in 2008, on quality of care for pneumonia and surgical infection prevention (SIP). Data Hospital Compare process of care quality data from 2004 to 2009 for acute care hospitals in Massachusetts (N = 62) and other states (N = 3,676) and American Hospital Association data on hospital characteristics from 2005. Study Design Panel data models with hospital fixed effects and hospital-specific trends are estimated to test the effect of P4P on composite quality for pneumonia and SIP. This base model is extended to control for the completeness of measure reporting. Further sensitivity checks include estimation with propensity-score matched control hospitals, excluding hospitals in other P4P programs, varying the time period during which the program was assumed to have an effect, and testing the program effect across hospital characteristics. Principal Findings Estimates from our preferred specification, including hospital fixed effects, trends, and the control for measure completeness, indicate small and nonsignificant program effects for pneumonia (−0.67 percentage points, p>.10) and SIP (−0.12 percentage points, p>.10). Sensitivity checks indicate a similar pattern of findings across specifications. Conclusions Despite offering substantial financial incentives, the MassHealth P4P program did not improve quality in the first years of implementation. PMID:21210796

A prevalence-based association test for case-control studies.

PubMed

Ryckman, Kelli K; Jiang, Lan; Li, Chun; Bartlett, Jacquelaine; Haines, Jonathan L; Williams, Scott M

2008-11-01

Genetic association is often determined in case-control studies by the differential distribution of alleles or genotypes. Recent work has demonstrated that association can also be assessed by deviations from the expected distributions of alleles or genotypes. Specifically, multiple methods motivated by the principles of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) have been developed. However, these methods do not take into account many of the assumptions of HWE. Therefore, we have developed a prevalence-based association test (PRAT) as an alternative method for detecting association in case-control studies. This method, also motivated by the principles of HWE, uses an estimated population allele frequency to generate expected genotype frequencies instead of using the case and control frequencies separately. Our method often has greater power, under a wide variety of genetic models, to detect association than genotypic, allelic or Cochran-Armitage trend association tests. Therefore, we propose PRAT as a powerful alternative method of testing for association.

HIV Surveillance Among Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Clinics: Evolution and Current Direction

PubMed Central

Garcia Calleja, Jesus M; Marsh, Kimberly; Zaidi, Irum; Murrill, Christopher; Swaminathan, Mahesh

2017-01-01

Since the late 1980s, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sentinel serosurveillance among pregnant women attending select antenatal clinics (ANCs) based on unlinked anonymous testing (UAT) has provided invaluable information for tracking HIV prevalence and trends and informing global and national HIV models in most countries with generalized HIV epidemics. However, increased coverage of HIV testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and antiretroviral therapy has heightened ethical concerns about UAT. PMTCT programs now routinely collect demographic and HIV testing information from the same pregnant women as serosurveillance and therefore present an alternative to UAT-based ANC serosurveillance. This paper reports on the evolution and current direction of the global approach to HIV surveillance among pregnant women attending ANCs, including the transition away from traditional UAT-based serosurveillance and toward new guidance from the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS on the implementation of surveillance among pregnant women attending ANCs based on routine PMTCT program data. PMID:29208587

Changes in the chemistry of precipitation in the United States, 1981-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nilles, M.A.; Conley, B.E.

2001-01-01

Regulatory measures in the United States, such as Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, have primarily restricted sulfur dioxide emissions as a way to control acidic deposition. These restrictions, coupled with increasing concentrations of NH4+ in wet deposition in some regions of the U.S. and continued high emissions of nitrogen oxides have generated a significant shift in the chemistry of precipitation as measured at National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network sites. Trends in precipitation chemistry at NADP/NTN sites were evaluated for statistical significance for the period 1981-1998 using a Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test, a robust non-parametric test for detection of monotonic trends. SO42- declines were detected at 100 of the 147 sites examined while no sites exhibited increasing SO42- trends. On average, SO42- declined 35% over the period 1981-1998 with downward SO42- trends being most pronounced in the northeastern United States. In contrast, no consistent trends in NO3- concentrations were observed in precipitation in any major region of the United States. Although the majority of sites did not exhibit significant trends in NH4+ concentration, 30 sites exhibited upward trends. For Ca2+ concentration in precipitation, 64 sites exhibited a significant decreasing trend and no sites exhibited an upward trend.

Determining Damping Trends from a Range of Cable Harness Assemblies on a Launch Vehicle Panel from Test Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; Davis, R. Ben; LaVerde, Bruce; Jones, Douglas

2012-01-01

The team of authors at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been investigating estimating techniques for the vibration response of launch vehicle panels excited by acoustics and/or aero-fluctuating pressures. Validation of the approaches used to estimate these environments based on ground tests of flight like hardware is of major importance to new vehicle programs. The team at MSFC has recently expanded upon the first series of ground test cases completed in December 2010. The follow on tests recently completed are intended to illustrate differences in damping that might be expected when cable harnesses are added to the configurations under test. This validation study examines the effect on vibroacoustic response resulting from the installation of cable bundles on a curved orthogrid panel. Of interest is the level of damping provided by the installation of the cable bundles and whether this damping could be potentially leveraged in launch vehicle design. The results of this test are compared with baseline acoustic response tests without cables. Damping estimates from the measured response data are made using a new software tool that employs a finite element model (FEM) of the panel in conjunction with advanced optimization techniques. This paper will report on the \\damping trend differences. observed from response measurements for several different configurations of cable harnesses. The data should assist vibroacoustics engineers to make more informed damping assumptions when calculating vibration response estimates when using model based analysis approach. Achieving conservative estimates that have more flight like accuracy is desired. The paper may also assist analysts in determining how ground test data may relate to expected flight response levels. Empirical response estimates may also need to be adjusted if the measured response used as an input to the study came from a test article without flight like cable harnesses.

Monitoring of Typical Steppe Desertification Based on Time Series of Net Primary Productivity Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongyan; Li, Qiangzi; Gao, Zhihai

2014-11-01

Monitoring of grassland condition is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory under climatic and human pressures leading to desertification. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of grassland degradation. In this paper, taking the Xilin Gol League as a case, the net primary production (NPP) dynamic trends during 2001-2010 were analyzed, with the Mann-Kendall test. In this paper, in the study area where precipitation and NPP has significantly positive correlation, the residual trend method (RESTREND) was used to remove the annual NPP fluctuation caused by rainfall fluctuation and reduce the effect of precipitation on vegetation monitoring indicators. The results showed that An overall strong liner correlation between NPP and precipitation was observed in the Xilin Gol grassland, with 68.52% of the pixels analyzed being significantly correlated (α =0.1). The statistical analysis reveals that the NPP trend estimation generally shows a decreasing trend, with 13.02% of the Xilin Gol grassland being analyzed showing a significant trend (11.47% decrease and 1.55% increase). However, the Xilin Gol grassland desertification was not serious in the past ten years, only 5.16% of the study area where the vegetation productivity was significantly decreases (reducing the effect of precipitation).

Linking plant functional trait plasticity and the large increase in forest water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Gentine, Pierre; Gough, Christopher M.; Fatichi, Simone

2017-09-01

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce stomatal conductance, thus increasing plant water use efficiency. A recent study based on eddy covariance flux observations from Northern Hemisphere forests showed a large increase in inherent water use efficiency (IWUE). Here we used an updated version of the same data set and robust uncertainty quantification to revisit these contemporary IWUE trends. We tested the hypothesis that the observed IWUE increase could be attributed to interannual trends in plant functional traits, potentially triggered by environmental change. We found that IWUE increased by 1.3% yr-1, which is less than previously reported but still larger than theoretical expectations. Numerical simulations with the Tethys-Chloris ecosystem model using temporally static plant functional traits cannot explain this increase. Simulations with plant functional trait plasticity, i.e., temporal changes in model parameters such as specific leaf area and maximum Rubisco capacity, match the observed trends in IWUE. Our results show that trends in plant functional traits, equal to 1.0% yr-1, can explain the observed IWUE trends. Thus, at decadal or longer time scales, trait plasticity could potentially influence forest water, carbon, and energy fluxes with profound implications for both the monitoring of temporal changes in plant functional traits and their representation in Earth system models.

Rainfall characterisation by application of standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Fadhilah; Hui-Mean, Foo; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli; Ching-Yee, Kong

2014-02-01

The interpretations of trend behaviour for dry and wet events are analysed in order to verify the dryness and wetness episodes. The fitting distribution of rainfall is computed to classify the dry and wet events by applying the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The rainfall amount for each station is categorised into seven categories, namely extremely wet, severely wet, moderately wet, near normal, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The computation of the SPI is based on the monsoon periods, which include the northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and inter-monsoon. The trends of the dry and wet periods were then detected using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the results indicate that the major parts of Peninsular Malaysia are characterised by increasing droughts rather than wet events. The annual trends of drought and wet events of the randomly selected stations from each region also yield similar results. Hence, the northwest and southwest regions are predicted to have a higher probability of drought occurrence during a dry event and not much rain during the wet event. The east and west regions, on the other hand, are going through a significant upward trend that implies lower rainfall during the drought episodes and heavy rainfall during the wet events.

Are Karakoram temperatures out of phase compared to hemispheric trends?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asad, Fayaz; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhang, Hui; Liang, Eryuan; Muhammad, Sher; Farhan, Suhaib Bin; Hussain, Iqtidar; Wazir, Muhammad Atif; Ahmed, Moinuddin; Esper, Jan

2017-05-01

In contrast to a global retreating trend, glaciers in the Karakoram showed stability and/or mass gaining during the past decades. This "Karakoram Anomaly" has been assumed to result from an out-of-phase temperature trend compared to hemispheric scales. However, the short instrumental observations from the Karakoram valley bottoms do not support a quantitative assessment of long-term temperature trends in this high mountain area. Here, we presented a new April-July temperature reconstruction from the Karakoram region in northern Pakistan based on a high elevation ( 3600 m a.s.l.) tree-ring chronology covering the past 438 years (AD 1575-2012). The reconstruction passes all statistical calibration and validation tests and represents 49 % of the temperature variance recorded over the 1955-2012 instrumental period. It shows a substantial warming accounting to about 1.12 °C since the mid-twentieth century, and 1.94 °C since the mid-nineteenth century, and agrees well with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. These findings provide evidence that the Karakoram temperatures are in-phase, rather than out-of-phase, compared to hemispheric scales since the AD 1575. The synchronous temperature trends imply that the anomalous glacier behavior reported from the Karakoram may need further explanations beyond basic regional thermal anomaly.

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected wells possibly influenced by wastewater disposal at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1981-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Linda C.; Bartholomay, Roy C.; Fisher, Jason C.; Maimer, Neil V.

2015-01-01

Volatile organic compound concentration trends were analyzed for nine aquifer wells. Trend test results indicated an increasing trend for carbon tetrachloride for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Production Well for the period 1987–2012; however, trend analyses of data collected since 2005 show no statistically significant trend indicating that engineering practices designed to reduce movement of volatile organic compounds to the aquifer may be having a positive effect on the aquifer.

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Changes in the antibiotic susceptibility of anaerobic bacteria from 2007-2009 to 2010-2012 based on the CLSI methodology.

PubMed

Hastey, Christine J; Boyd, Halsey; Schuetz, Audrey N; Anderson, Karen; Citron, Diane M; Dzink-Fox, Jody; Hackel, Meredith; Hecht, David W; Jacobus, Nilda V; Jenkins, Stephen G; Karlsson, Maria; Knapp, Cynthia C; Koeth, Laura M; Wexler, Hannah; Roe-Carpenter, Darcie E

2016-12-01

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing of anaerobic isolates was conducted at four independent sites from 2010 to 2012 and compared to results from three sites during the period of 2007-2009. This data comparison shows significant changes in antimicrobial resistance in some anaerobic groups. Therefore, we continue to recommend institutions regularly perform susceptibility testing when anaerobes are cultured from pertinent sites. Annual generation of an institutional-specific antibiogram is recommended for tracking of resistance trends over time. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

2012-01-01

An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

Using Generalized Additive Models to Analyze Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Sullivan, Kristynn

2013-01-01

Many analyses for single-case designs (SCDs)--including nearly all the effect size indicators-- currently assume no trend in the data. Regression and multilevel models allow for trend, but usually test only linear trend and have no principled way of knowing if higher order trends should be represented in the model. This paper shows how Generalized…

Childhood and adolescent lymphoma in Spain: incidence and survival trends over 20 years.

PubMed

Marcos-Gragera, R; Solans, M; Galceran, J; Fernández-Delgado, R; Fernández-Teijeiro, A; Mateos, A; Quirós-Garcia, J R; Fuster-Camarena, N; De Castro, V; Sánchez, M J; Franch, P; Chirlaque, M D; Ardanaz, E; Martos, C; Salmerón, D; Peris-Bonet, R

2018-04-05

Lymphoma is the third most common malignancy in children (0-14 years) and the first in adolescents (15-19 years). This population-based study-the largest ever done in Spain-analyses incidence and survival of lymphomas among Spanish children and adolescents. 1664 lymphoma cases (1983-2007) for incidence and 1030 for survival (1991-2005) followed until 31/12/2010, were provided by 11 cancer registries. Age-adjusted incidence rates (ASRw) to the world standard population were obtained; incidence trends were modelled using the Joinpoint programme, observed survival (OS) was estimated with Kaplan-Meier and trends tested with a log-rank test. Results are presented according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer-3. In Spain, the ASRw 0-14 for lymphomas was 17.5 per 1.000.000 child-years and 50.0 the specific rate for adolescents. Overall incidence increased significantly during 1983-1997 with no increases thereafter. Patients over 9 years old showed significant rising trends for all subtypes, except for Burkitt lymphoma (BL) in adolescents. During 2001-2005 (age 0-19 years), 5-year OS was 94 (90-98), 73 (64-83) and 86 (78-94) for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and BL, respectively. No improvement in survival was found. The incidence in Spain was higher than overall European rates, but within the range of that in Southern Europe. Comparing OS in Spain 1991-1995 and 2001-2005 with results for Europe of the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) (1988-1997) and the European cancer registry-based study on survival and care of cancer patients (EUROCARE) (2000-2007), it was similar for HL and lower for NHL and BL. Systematic monitoring and analysis of lymphoma paediatric data would provide clinical and epidemiological information to improve the health care of these patients and the outcomes for these malignancies in Spain.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Influence of headache frequency on clinical signs and symptoms of TMD in subjects with temple headache and TMD pain

PubMed Central

Anderson, Gary C.; John, Mike T.; Ohrbach, Richard; Nixdorf, Donald R.; Schiffman, Eric L.; Truelove, Edmond S.; List, Thomas

2011-01-01

The relationship of the frequency of temple headache to signs and symptoms of temporomandibular disorders (TMD) was investigated in a subset of a larger convenience sample of community TMD cases. The study sample included: 86 painful TMD, non-headache subjects; 309 painful TMD subjects with varied frequency of temple headaches; and 149 subjects without painful TMD or headache for descriptive comparison. Painful TMD included Research Diagnostic Criteria (RDC) diagnoses of myofascial pain, TMJ arthralgia and TMJ osteoarthritis. Mild to moderate intensity temple headaches were classified by frequency using criteria based on the ICHD-II classification of TTH. Outcomes included TMD signs and symptoms (pain duration, pain intensity, number of painful masticatory sites on palpation, mandibular range of motion), PPTs and temple headache resulting from masticatory provocation tests. Trend analyses across the painful TMD groups showed a substantial trend for aggravation of all of the TMD signs and symptoms associated with increased frequency of the temple headaches. In addition, increased headache frequency showed significant trends associated with reduced PPTs and reported temple headache with masticatory provocation tests. In conclusion, these findings suggest that these headaches may be TMD-related, as well as a possible role for peripheral and central sensitization in TMD patients. PMID:21196079

Investigations to improve carbon dioxide control with amine and molecular sieve type sorbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bertrand, J. F.; Brose, H. F.; Kester, F. L.; Lunde, P. J.

1972-01-01

The optimization trends and operating parameters of an integral molecular sieve bed heat exchanger were investigated. The optimum combination of substrate and coating for the HS-B porous polymer was determined based on the CO2 dynamic capacity in the presence of water vapor. Full size HS-B canister performance was evaluated. An Amine CO2 Concentrator utilizing IR-45 sorber material and available Manned Orbiting Laboratory hardware was designed, fabricated and tested for use as an experiment in the NASA 90-day space simulator test of 1970. It supported four men in the simulator for 71 days out of the 90-day test duration.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanco, Arthur S.; Gerlagh, Reyer; Suh, Sangwon

Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 5: Progress Lags in High School, Especially for Advanced Achievers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMurrer, Jennifer; Kober, Nancy

2011-01-01

This report by the Center on Education Policy (CEP), an independent nonprofit organization, examines trends in the achievement of high school students on the state reading/English language arts (ELA) and mathematics tests used for accountability under the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB). In most states, these tests are first administered in grade…

Utilization survey of prototype structural test article

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baber, S.; Mcdaniel, H. M.; Berry, M. J.

1974-01-01

A survey was conducted of six aerospace companies and two NASA agencies to determine how prototype structural test articles are used in flight operations. The prototype structures are airframes and similar devices which are used for testing and generally are not flown. The survey indicated the following: (1) prototype test articles are not being discarded after development testing is complete, but are used for other purposes, (2) only two cases of prototypes being refurbished and flown were identified, (3) protective devices and inspection techniques are available to prevent or minimize test article damage, (4) substitute programs from design verification are availabel in lieu of using prototype structural articles, and (5) there is a trend away from dedicated test articles. Four options based on these study results were identified to reduce test and hardware costs without compromising reliability of the flight program.

HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence

PubMed Central

Song, Ruiguang; Tang, Tian; An, Qian; Prejean, Joseph; Dietz, Patricia; Hernandez, Angela L; Green, Timothy; Harris, Norma; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan

2017-01-01

Background The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends. Objective The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods. Methods Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM). Results On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (P<.001). Adjusting for reporting delays, diagnoses decreased 3.1% per year (P<.001). The CD4 model estimated an annual decrease in incidence of 4.6% (P<.001) and the Bayesian hierarchical model 2.6% (P<.001); the stratified extrapolation approach estimated a stable incidence. During these years, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM. Conclusions HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all race or ethnicity groups. Further progress depends on effectively reducing HIV incidence among MSM, among whom the majority of new infections occur. PMID:28159730

Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-like-illness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska.

PubMed

Araz, Ozgur M; Bentley, Dan; Muelleman, Robert L

2014-09-01

Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-like-illness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). Google Flu Trends data statistically improve the performance of predicting ILI-related ED visits in Douglas County, and this result can be generalized to other communities. Timely and accurate estimates of ED volume during the influenza season, as well as during pandemic outbreaks, can help hospitals plan their ED resources accordingly and lower their costs by optimizing supplies and staffing and can improve service quality by decreasing ED wait times and overcrowding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Method and platform standardization in MRM-based quantitative plasma proteomics.

PubMed

Percy, Andrew J; Chambers, Andrew G; Yang, Juncong; Jackson, Angela M; Domanski, Dominik; Burkhart, Julia; Sickmann, Albert; Borchers, Christoph H

2013-12-16

There exists a growing demand in the proteomics community to standardize experimental methods and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS) platforms in order to enable the acquisition of more precise and accurate quantitative data. This necessity is heightened by the evolving trend of verifying and validating candidate disease biomarkers in complex biofluids, such as blood plasma, through targeted multiple reaction monitoring (MRM)-based approaches with stable isotope-labeled standards (SIS). Considering the lack of performance standards for quantitative plasma proteomics, we previously developed two reference kits to evaluate the MRM with SIS peptide approach using undepleted and non-enriched human plasma. The first kit tests the effectiveness of the LC/MRM-MS platform (kit #1), while the second evaluates the performance of an entire analytical workflow (kit #2). Here, these kits have been refined for practical use and then evaluated through intra- and inter-laboratory testing on 6 common LC/MS platforms. For an identical panel of 22 plasma proteins, similar concentrations were determined, regardless of the kit, instrument platform, and laboratory of analysis. These results demonstrate the value of the kit and reinforce the utility of standardized methods and protocols. The proteomics community needs standardized experimental protocols and quality control methods in order to improve the reproducibility of MS-based quantitative data. This need is heightened by the evolving trend for MRM-based validation of proposed disease biomarkers in complex biofluids such as blood plasma. We have developed two kits to assist in the inter- and intra-laboratory quality control of MRM experiments: the first kit tests the effectiveness of the LC/MRM-MS platform (kit #1), while the second evaluates the performance of an entire analytical workflow (kit #2). In this paper, we report the use of these kits in intra- and inter-laboratory testing on 6 common LC/MS platforms. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Standardization and Quality Control in Proteomics. © 2013.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

PubMed

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incidence and Trends of Infections with Pathogens Transmitted Commonly Through Food and the Effect of Increasing Use of Culture-Independent Diagnostic Tests on Surveillance - Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 10 U.S. Sites, 2013-2016.

PubMed

Marder, Ellyn P; Cieslak, Paul R; Cronquist, Alicia B; Dunn, John; Lathrop, Sarah; Rabatsky-Ehr, Therese; Ryan, Patricia; Smith, Kirk; Tobin-D'Angelo, Melissa; Vugia, Duc J; Zansky, Shelley; Holt, Kristin G; Wolpert, Beverly J; Lynch, Michael; Tauxe, Robert; Geissler, Aimee L

2017-04-21

Foodborne diseases represent a substantial public health concern in the United States. CDC's Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) monitors cases reported from 10 U.S. sites* of laboratory-diagnosed infections caused by nine enteric pathogens commonly transmitted through food. This report describes preliminary surveillance data for 2016 on the nine pathogens and changes in incidences compared with 2013-2015. In 2016, FoodNet identified 24,029 infections, 5,512 hospitalizations, and 98 deaths caused by these pathogens. The use of culture-independent diagnostic tests (CIDTs) by clinical laboratories to detect enteric pathogens has been steadily increasing since FoodNet began surveying clinical laboratories in 2010 (1). CIDTs complicate the interpretation of FoodNet surveillance data because pathogen detection could be affected by changes in health care provider behaviors or laboratory testing practices (2). Health care providers might be more likely to order CIDTs because these tests are quicker and easier to use than traditional culture methods, a circumstance that could increase pathogen detection (3). Similarly, pathogen detection could also be increasing as clinical laboratories adopt DNA-based syndromic panels, which include pathogens not often included in routine stool culture (4,5). In addition, CIDTs do not yield isolates, which public health officials rely on to distinguish pathogen subtypes, determine antimicrobial resistance, monitor trends, and detect outbreaks. To obtain isolates for infections identified by CIDTs, laboratories must perform reflex culture † ; if clinical laboratories do not, the burden of culturing falls to state public health laboratories, which might not be able to absorb that burden as the adoption of these tests increases (2). Strategies are needed to preserve access to bacterial isolates for further characterization and to determine the effect of changing trends in testing practices on surveillance.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN. These sources were clearly linked with anthropogenic activities, and the observed decreasing trends confirmed the effectiveness of pollution control measures implemented at European or regional/local levels. Conversely, at regional level, the contributions from sources mostly linked with natural processes, such as aged marine and aged organics, did not show statistically significant trends. The trends observed for the PM10 source contributions reflected the trends observed for the chemical tracers of these pollutant sources well.

GAT 2.0 Trend Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-25

Emotional , Social, Family, and Spiritual. Pilot testing on a sample of 8,000 Soldiers across grades indicated that the average completion time was 45...New questions were required for the emotional and family dimensions. Table 1 describes the questions and resilience aspects taken from validated...Source of questions used to analyze factor in GAT Emotional Bad/Good Coping Written by Professors Peterson and Park, based on and paraphrasing

The rise of digital direct-to-consumer advertising?: Comparison of direct-to-consumer advertising expenditure trends from publicly available data sources and global policy implications.

PubMed

Mackey, Tim K; Cuomo, Raphael E; Liang, Bryan A

2015-06-19

Pharmaceutical marketing is undergoing a major shift in the United States, in part due to new transparency regulations under the healthcare reform act. Changes in pharmaceutical marketing practices include a possible shift from more traditional forms of direct-to-consumer advertising towards emerging use of Internet-based DTCA ("eDTCA") given the growing importance of digital health or "eHealth." Though legally allowed only in the U.S. and New Zealand, eDTCA poses novel regulatory challenges, as it can cross geopolitical boundaries and impact health systems and populations outside of these countries. We wished to assess whether changes in DTCA and eDTCA expenditure trends was occurring using publicly available pharmaceutical marketing data. DTCA data was analyzed to compare trends in aggregate marketing expenditures and to assess if there were statistically significant differences in trends and magnitudes for data sources and DTCA sub-categories (including eDTCA). This was accomplished using regression lines of DTCA trend data and conducting pairwise comparisons of regression coefficients using t-tests. Means testing was utilized for comparing magnitude of DTCA expenditure. Data from multiple data sources indicate that aggregate DTCA expenditures have slightly declined during the period from 2005-2009 and are consistent with results from other studies. For DTCA sub-categories, television remained the most utilized form of DTCA, though experienced trends of declining expenditures (-13.2 %) similar to other traditional media platforms such as radio (-30.7 %) and outdoor ads (-12.1 %). The only DTCA sub-category that experienced substantial increased expenditures was eDTCA (+109.0 %) and it was the only medium that had statistically significant differences in its marketing expenditure trends compared to other DTCA sub-categories. Our study indicates that traditional DTCA marketing may be on the decline. Conversely, the only DTCA sub-category that experienced significant increases was eDTCA. However, to fully understand this possible shift to "digital" DTCA, improvements in publicly available DTCA data sources are necessary to confirm changing trends and validate existing data. Hence, utilizing the newly implemented U.S. physician-payment expenditure transparency requirements, we advocate for the mandatory disclosure of DTCA/eDTCA in order to inform future domestic and international health policy efforts regarding appropriate regulation of pharmaceutical promotion.

Trend analysis of weekly acid rain data, 1978-83

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schertz, Terry L.; Hirsch, Robert M.

1985-01-01

There are 19 stations in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program which operated over the period 1978-83 and were subsequently incorporated into the National Trends Network in 1983. The precipitation chemistry data for these stations for this period were analyzed for trend, spatial correlation, seasonality, and relationship to precipitation volume. The intent of the analysis was to provide insights on the sources of variation in precipitation chemistry and to attempt to ascertain what statistical procedures may be most useful for ongoing analysis of the National Trends Network data. The Seasonal Kendall test was used for detection of trends in raw concentrations of dissolved constituents, pH and specific conductance, and residuals of these parameters from regression analysis. Forty-one percent of the trends detected in the raw concentrations were downtrends, 4 percent were uptrends, and 55 percent showed no trends at a = 0.2. At a more restrictive significance level of a = 0.05, 24 percent of the trends detected were downtrends, 2 percent were uptrends, and 74 percent showed no trends. The two constituents of greatest interest in terms of human generated emissions and environmental effects, sulfate and nitrate, showed only downtrends, and sulfate showed the largest decreases in concentration per year of all the ions tested.

Infodemiology of systemic lupus erythematous using Google Trends.

PubMed

Radin, M; Sciascia, S

2017-07-01

Objective People affected by chronic rheumatic conditions, such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), frequently rely on the Internet and search engines to look for terms related to their disease and its possible causes, symptoms and treatments. 'Infodemiology' and 'infoveillance' are two recent terms created to describe a new developing approach for public health, based on Big Data monitoring and data mining. In this study, we aim to investigate trends of Internet research linked to SLE and symptoms associated with the disease, applying a Big Data monitoring approach. Methods We analysed the large amount of data generated by Google Trends, considering 'lupus', 'relapse' and 'fatigue' in a 10-year web-based research. Google Trends automatically normalized data for the overall number of searches, and presented them as relative search volumes, in order to compare variations of different search terms across regions and periods. The Menn-Kendall test was used to evaluate the overall seasonal trend of each search term and possible correlation between search terms. Results We observed a seasonality for Google search volumes for lupus-related terms. In the Northern hemisphere, relative search volumes for 'lupus' were correlated with 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.019) and with fatigue (τ = 0.82; p = 0.003), whereas in the Southern hemisphere we observed a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.018). Similarly, a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.70; p < 0.001) was seen also in the Northern hemisphere. Conclusion Despite the intrinsic limitations of this approach, Internet-acquired data might represent a real-time surveillance tool and an alert for healthcare systems in order to plan the most appropriate resources in specific moments with higher disease burden.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Trends of T. cruzi infection based on data from blood bank screening.

PubMed

Zicker, F; Martelli, C M; de Andrade, A L; Almeida e Silva, S

1990-01-01

Between October 1988 and April 1989 a cross-sectional survey was carried out in six out of eight blood banks of Goiánia, Central Brazil. Subjects attending for first-time blood donation in the mornings of the study period (n = 1358) were interviewed and screened for T. cruzi infection as a part of a major study among blood donors. Tests to anti-T. cruzi antibodies were performed, simultaneously, by indirect hemagglutination test (IHA) and complement fixation test (CFT). A subject was considered seropositive when any one of the two tests showed a positive result. Information on age, sex, place of birth, migration and socio-economic level was recorded. Results from this survey were compared with seroprevalence rates obtained in previous studies in an attempt to analyse trend of T. cruzi infection in an endemic urban area. The overall seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection among first-time donors was found to be 3.5% (95% confidence interval 2.5%-4.5%). The seroprevalence rate increased with age up to 45 years and then decreased. Migrants from rural areas had higher seroprevalence rates than subjects from urban counties (1.8%-16.2% vs. 0%-3.6%). A four fold decrease in prevalence rates was observed when these rates were compared with those of fifteen years ago. Two possible hypotheses to explain this difference were suggested: 1. a cohort effect related with the decrease of transmission in rural areas and/or 2. a differential proportion of people of rural origin among blood donors between the two periods. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of epidemiological information to monitor trends of T. cruzi infection in an urban adult population was stressed.

Hepatitis C testing and re-testing among people attending sexual health services in Australia, and hepatitis C incidence among people with human immunodeficiency virus: analysis of national sentinel surveillance data.

PubMed

Boettiger, David C; Law, Matthew G; Dore, Gregory J; Guy, Rebecca; Callander, Denton; Donovan, Basil; O'Connor, Catherine C; Fairley, Christopher K; Hellard, Margaret; Matthews, Gail

2017-12-01

Direct acting antivirals are expected to drastically reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). However, rates of HCV testing, re-testing and incident infection in this group remain uncertain in Australia. We assessed trends in HCV testing, re-testing and incident infection among HIV-positive individuals, and evaluated factors associated with HCV re-testing and incident infection. The study population consisted of HIV-positive individuals who visited a sexual health service involved in the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance (ACCESS) between 2007 and 2015. Poisson regression was used to assess trends and to evaluate factors associated with HCV re-testing and incident HCV infection. There were 9227 HIV-positive individuals included in our testing rate analysis. Of 3799 HIV-positive/HCV-negative people that attended an ACCESS sexual health service more than once, 2079 (54.7%) were re-tested for HCV and were therefore eligible for our incidence analysis. The rate of HCV testing increased from 17.1 to 51.4 tests per 100 patient years between 2007 and 2015 (p for trend <0.01). Over the same period, HCV re-testing rates increased from 23.9 to 79.7 tests per 100 person years (p for trend <0.01). A clear increase in testing and re-testing began after 2011. Patients who identified as men who have sex with men and those with a history of injecting drug use experienced high rates of HCV re-testing over the course of the study period. Among those who re-tested, 157 incident HCV infections occurred at a rate of 2.5 events per 100 person years. Between 2007 and 2009, 2010-2011, 2012-2013 and 2014-2015, rates of incident HCV were 0.8, 1.5, 3.9 and 2.7 events per 100 person years, respectively (p for trend <0.01). Incident HCV was strongly associated with a history of injecting drug use. High rates of HCV testing and re-testing among HIV-positive individuals in Australia will assist strategies to achieve HCV elimination through rapid treatment scale up. Continued monitoring of HCV incidence in this population is essential for guiding both HCV prevention and treatment strategies.

Analysis on the hot spot and trend of the foreign assembly building research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Xiaoqing; Luo, Yanbing

2017-03-01

First of all, the paper analyzes the research on the front of the assembly building in the past 15 years. This article mainly adopts the method of CO word analysis, construct the co word matrix, correlation matrix, and then into a dissimilarity matrix, and on this basis, using factor analysis, cluster analysis and multi scale analysis method to study the structure of prefabricated construction field display. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed, and summarized the current research focus of foreign prefabricated construction mainly concentrated in 7 aspects: embankment construction, wood construction, bridge construction, crane layout, PCM wall and glass system, based on neural network test, energy saving and recycling, and forecast the future trend of development study.

Exploring the seasonality of birth defects in the New York State Congenital Malformations Registry.

PubMed

Caton, Alissa R

2012-06-01

Examining seasonal patterns of birth defects may help to identify environmental risk factors. Because the teratogenic window for most birth defects is during gestational weeks 3 to 8, investigating exposures closer to the timing of conception is important. However, studies are usually based on month of birth, which is not the biologically relevant exposure period and does not account for differences in gestational length. We aimed to determine whether the occurrence of birth defects varied by month of conception using the population-based New York State Congenital Malformations Registry (CMR). We merged live birth certificates (n = 2,044,091) with CMR records for mothers residing in New York State, excluding New York City, for the years 1992 through 2006. We categorized birth defects according to the National Birth Defects Prevention Network guidelines and performed Cochran-Armitage trend, Hewitt-Rogerson, and Walter-Elwood tests on month of conception and chi-square tests on season of conception. We graphed seasonal distributions and seasonality test results. We performed stratified analyses by maternal and infant characteristics. Of 42 groups examined in the 15-year period, 24 (57%) had at least one statistically significant test result, suggesting a trend or seasonal variation: Cochran-Armitage (18), Hewitt-Rogerson (17), Walter-Elwood (4), and chi-square (5). Ventricular septal defect showed the most consistent results: Cochran-Armitage (p = 0.0006), Hewitt-Rogerson (December to May; p = 0.0130), Walter-Elwood (March 14; p = 0.0027), and chi-square (winter; p = 0.0046). Congenital cataract, pulmonary valve atresia/stenosis, coarctation of aorta, biliary atresia, and renal agenesis or hypoplasia had at least three significant tests. These results may help to generate hypotheses about environmental factors that vary by season for further studies. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effectiveness and benefit-cost of peer-based workplace substance abuse prevention coupled with random testing.

PubMed

Miller, Ted R; Zaloshnja, Eduard; Spicer, Rebecca S

2007-05-01

Few studies have evaluated the impact of workplace substance abuse prevention programs on occupational injury, despite this being a justification for these programs. This paper estimates the effectiveness and benefit-cost ratio of a peer-based substance abuse prevention program at a U.S. transportation company, implemented in phases from 1988 to 1990. The program focuses on changing workplace attitudes toward on-the-job substance use in addition to training workers to recognize and intervene with coworkers who have a problem. The program was strengthened by federally mandated random drug and alcohol testing (implemented, respectively, in 1990 and 1994). With time-series analysis, we analyzed the association of monthly injury rates and costs with phased program implementation, controlling for industry injury trend. The combination of the peer-based program and testing was associated with an approximate one-third reduction in injury rate, avoiding an estimated $48 million in employer costs in 1999. That year, the peer-based program cost the company $35 and testing cost another $35 per employee. The program avoided an estimated $1850 in employer injury costs per employee in 1999, corresponding to a benefit-cost ratio of 26:1. The findings suggest that peer-based programs buttressed by random testing can be cost-effective in the workplace.

Chemical sensors for breath gas analysis: the latest developments at the Breath Analysis Summit 2013.

PubMed

Tisch, Ulrike; Haick, Hossam

2014-06-01

Profiling the body chemistry by means of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the breath opens exciting new avenues in medical diagnostics. Gas sensors could provide ideal platforms for realizing portable, hand-held breath testing devices in the near future. This review summarizes the latest developments and applications in the field of chemical sensors for diagnostic breath testing that were presented at the Breath Analysis Summit 2013 in Wallerfangen, Germany. Considerable progress has been made towards clinically applicable breath testing devices, especially by utilizing chemo-sensitive nanomaterials. Examples of several specialized breath testing applications are presented that are either based on stand-alone nanomaterial-based sensors being highly sensitive and specific to individual breath compounds over others, or on combinations of several highly specific sensors, or on experimental nanomaterial-based sensors arrays. Other interesting approaches include the adaption of a commercially available MOx-based sensor array to indirect breath testing applications, using a sample pre-concentration method, and the development of compact integrated GC-sensor systems. The recent trend towards device integration has led to the development of fully integrated prototypes of point-of-care devices. We describe and compare the performance of several prototypes that are based on different sensing technologies and evaluate their potential as low-cost and readily available next-generation medical devices.

Types of Feedback in Competency-Based Predoctoral Orthodontics: Effects on Students' Attitudes and Confidence.

PubMed

Lipp, Mitchell J; Cho, Kiyoung; Kim, Han Suk

2017-05-01

Feedback can exert a powerful influence on learning and achievement although its effect varies. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of three types of feedback on dental students' attitudes and confidence in a competency-based course in predoctoral orthodontics at New York University College of Dentistry. In 2013-14, all 253 third-year students in a course using test-enhanced instructional methods received written feedback on formative assessments. The type of feedback varied across three groups: pass/fail grades (PF) N=77, emoticons (EM) N=90, or written comments (WC) N=86. At the end of the course, students completed surveys that included four statements addressing their attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities. The survey response rate ranged from 75% to 100% among groups. The lowest response rate (75%) was in the PF group. In attitudes toward course instruction and confidence in their abilities, the WC group trended to more positive responses than the other groups, while the PF group trended to negative responses. On two of the four statements, the trend for the WC group was significant (95% CI). In both statements concerning attitudes toward instruction, the PF group trended to negative responses that were significant (95% CI). These results support the effectiveness of descriptive written comments over pass/fail grades or emoticons in improving dental students' confidence in their abilities and their attitudes toward instruction.

Combining nonoverlap and trend for single-case research: Tau-U.

PubMed

Parker, Richard I; Vannest, Kimberly J; Davis, John L; Sauber, Stephanie B

2011-06-01

A new index for analysis of single-case research data was proposed, Tau-U, which combines nonoverlap between phases with trend from within the intervention phase. In addition, it provides the option of controlling undesirable Phase A trend. The derivation of Tau-U from Kendall's Rank Correlation and the Mann-Whitney U test between groups is demonstrated. The equivalence of trend and nonoverlap is also shown, with supportive citations from field leaders. Tau-U calculations are demonstrated for simple AB and ABA designs. Tau-U is then field tested on a sample of 382 published data series. Controlling undesirable Phase A trend caused only a modest change from nonoverlap. The inclusion of Phase B trend yielded more modest results than simple nonoverlap. The Tau-U score distribution did not show the artificial ceiling shown by all other nonoverlap techniques. It performed reasonably well with autocorrelated data. Tau-U shows promise for single-case applications, but further study is desirable. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Reassessment of Heavy-Duty Truck Aerodynamic Design Features and Priorities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Edwin J.; Meyer, Robert R., Jr.

1999-01-01

Between 1973 and 1982, the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center conducted "coast-down" tests demonstrating means for reducing the drag of trucks, buses, and motor homes. Numerous configurations were evaluated using a box-shaped test van, a two-axle truck, and a tractor-semitrailer combination. Results from three configurations of the test van are of interest now in view of a trucking industry goal of a 0.25 drag coefficient for tractor-semitrailer combinations. Two test van configurations with blunt-base geometry, similar to present day trucks (one configuration has square front comers and the other has rounded front comers), quantify the base drag increase associated with reduced forebody drag. Hoemer's equations predict this trend; however, test van results, reinforced by large-scale air vehicle data, indicate that Hoemer's formula greatly underestimates this dependence of base drag on forebody efficiency. The demonstrated increase in base drag associated with forebody refinement indicates that the goal of a 0.25 drag coefficient will not be achieved without also reducing afterbody drag. A third configuration of the test van had a truncated boattail to reduce afterbody drag and achieved a drag coefficient of 0.242. These results are included here and references are identified for other means of reducing afterbody drag.

Ten-year change in plasma amyloid beta levels and late-life cognitive decline.

PubMed

Okereke, Olivia I; Xia, Weiming; Selkoe, Dennis J; Grodstein, Francine

2009-10-01

Plasma levels of amyloid beta peptide (Abeta) are potential biomarkers of early cognitive impairment and decline and of Alzheimer disease risk. To relate midlife plasma Abeta measures and 10-year change in plasma Abeta measures since midlife to late-life cognitive decline. Prospective study of a population-based sample. Academic research. Plasma Abeta40 and Abeta42 levels were measured in 481 Nurses' Health Study participants in late midlife (mean age, 63.6 years) and again 10 years later (mean age, 74.6 years). Cognitive testing also began 10 years after the initial blood draw. Participants completed 3 repeated telephone-based assessments (mean span, 4.1 years). Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate relations of midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to late-life cognitive decline, as well as relations of 10-year change in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to cognitive decline. The 3 primary outcomes were the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) findings, a global score averaging the results of all tests (TICS, immediate and delayed verbal recall, category fluency, and attention), and a verbal memory score averaging the results of 4 tests of verbal recall. Higher midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios were associated with worse late-life decline on the global score (P = .04 for trend). Furthermore, increase in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios since midlife predicted greater decline in the global score (P = .03 for trend) and in the TICS (P = .02 for trend). There was no association of cognitive decline with midlife plasma Abeta42 levels alone or with change in Abeta42 levels since midlife. In this large community-dwelling sample, higher plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios in late midlife and increases in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios 10 years later were significantly associated with greater decline in global cognition at late life.

Wastewater toxicity of tannin- versus chromium-based leather tanneries in Marrakesh, Morocco.

PubMed

De Nicola, E; Meriç, S; Della Rocca, C; Gallo, M; Iaccarino, M; Manini, P; Petruzzelli, D; Belgiorno, V; Cheggour, M; Di Gennaro, A; Moukrim, A; Tünay, O; Pagano, G

2007-10-01

The toxicity of leather tanning wastewater from a traditional tannery (TT), which is based on vegetable tannin (VT), was compared with wastewater from a tannery combining the use of chromium-based tanning (CT) with VT-based tanning operations. Wastewater samples from a TT and a CT plant as well as from five sewer sampling points were collected in Marrakesh, Morocco, and the concentrations of VT and some selected inorganics were measured. A set of bioassays were used to test wastewater toxicity in sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus) embryos and sperm, in Daphnia magna, and in marine microalgae (Dunaliella tertiolecta). Toxicity end points included: (1) developmental defects, embryonic mortality, sperm fertilization success, and offspring damage in sea urchins; (2) D. magna immobilization; and (3) algal growth rate inhibition. Toxicity tests on TT and CT effluents (TTE and CTE) were run at dilutions ranging from 0.1% to 2% (sea urchins and algae) or up to 12% in D. magna. Parallel bioassays were run on VT extract (VTE) at nominal tannin concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 10 mg l(-1). The results showed higher toxicity of CTE compared with TTE. CTE toxicity in sea urchins and algae showed concentration-related trends, whereas TTE exerted hormetic effects at levels of 0.1% to 0.2% and toxic effects at levels >or=1%. The same trends were observed for VTE, suggesting a prevailing role of tannin in TTE-associated effects. The moderate wastewater toxicity of VT-based tanneries might prompt interest in the VT tanning process.

Trends in cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for the treatment of synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis of colorectal origin in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Razenberg, L G E M; van Gestel, Y R B M; Creemers, G-J; Verwaal, V J; Lemmens, V E P P; de Hingh, I H J T

2015-04-01

Population-based data on the percentage of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) being treated with cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are currently lacking. The current population-based study describes trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC in the Netherlands, one of the first countries where CRS and HIPEC was introduced. All patients diagnosed with synchronous PC of CRC between 2005 and 2012 were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 4623). Patients with primary appendiceal cancer were excluded resulting in a study population of 4430 patients. Trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC over time were analyzed by means of a Cochrane-Armitage trend test. Survival proportions were calculated as the time between diagnosis and date of death or last follow-up (January 2014). Of the total 4430 patients with synchronous PC, 297 (6.4%) underwent treatment with CRS-HIPEC. The proportion of colorectal PC patients receiving CRS-HIPEC increased significantly over time from 3.6% in 2005-2006 to 9.7% in 2011-2012 (p < 0.0001). Overall median survival (MS) for patients treated with CRS-HIPEC was 32.3 months, whereas MS rates were respectively 12.6, 6.1 and 1.5 for months palliative chemotherapy with/without surgery, palliative surgery and best supportive care. The proportion of patients diagnosed with synchronous PC from CRC treated with CRS-HIPEC has increased significantly over time and currently almost 10% of PC patients are treated with CRS-HIPEC. Median survival in this population based group is 32.3 months. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

A rapid multiplex PCR assay for presumptive species identification of rhinoceros horns and its implementation in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Frankham, Greta J.; McEwing, Ross; The, Dang Tat; Hogg, Carolyn J.; Lo, Nathan; Johnson, Rebecca N.

2018-01-01

Rhinoceros (rhinos) have suffered a dramatic increase in poaching over the past decade due to the growing demand for rhino horn products in Asia. One way to reverse this trend is to enhance enforcement and intelligence gathering tools used for species identification of horns, in particular making them fast, inexpensive and accurate. Traditionally, species identification tests are based on DNA sequence data, which, depending on laboratory resources, can be either time or cost prohibitive. This study presents a rapid rhino species identification test, utilizing species-specific primers within the cytochrome b gene multiplexed in a single reaction, with a presumptive species identification based on the length of the resultant amplicon. This multiplex PCR assay can provide a presumptive species identification result in less than 24 hours. Sequence-based definitive testing can be conducted if/when required (e.g. court purposes). This work also presents an actual casework scenario in which the presumptive test was successfully utlitised, in concert with sequence-based definitive testing. The test was carried out on seized suspected rhino horns tested at the Institute of Ecology and Biological Resources, the CITES mandated laboratory in Vietnam, a country that is known to be a major source of demand for rhino horns. This test represents the basis for which future ‘rapid species identification tests’ can be trialed. PMID:29902212

Type 1 diabetes mellitus and components in drinking water and diet: a population-based, case-control study in Prince Edward Island, Canada.

PubMed

Benson, Victoria S; Vanleeuwen, John A; Taylor, Jennifer; Somers, George S; McKinney, Patricia A; Van Til, Linda

2010-12-01

To determine the relationship between the risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and daily intake of drinking water and dietary components, including nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamines, during the year prior to diagnosis. Controls (n = 105) were matched by age at diagnosis and sex to T1D cases (n = 57) newly diagnosed during 2001-2004. Food consumption was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. Locally available samples of foods were tested for nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamine concentrations. Water consumption was determined through an additional questionnaire, and water samples were taken from homes and tested for routine chemical components, including nitrate. After controlling for age, age, sex, and daily energy intake, nitrate intake from food sources showed a non-significant positive trend (odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartiles = 1.00, 1.63 (0.58, 4.63), 1.71 (0.54, 5.40), 3.02 (0.78, 11.74); p for trend = 0.13). Nitrite and nitrosamine intake were not related to T1D risk (p for trend = 0.77 and 0.81, respectively). When food and water components were combined, zinc and calcium intakes were marginally and inversely related to T1D risk (p for trend = 0.07 and 0.06, respectively). After further model adjustment of possible confounders and significant risk factors, an increased intake of caffeine marginally increased the risk of T1D (p = 0.07). Dietary components from both food and water sources may influence the risk of developing T1D in young persons.

On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B.; Ambika, G.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

2012-09-01

Financial data has been extensively studied for correlations using Pearson's cross-correlation coefficient ρ as the point of departure. We employ an estimator based on recurrence plots - the correlation of probability of recurrence (CPR) - to analyze connections between nine stock indices spread worldwide. We suggest a slight modification of the CPR approach in order to get more robust results. We examine trends in CPR for an approximately 19-month window moved along the time series and compare them to trends in ρ. Binning CPR into three levels of connectedness (strong, moderate, and weak), we extract the trends in number of connections in each bin over time. We also look at the behavior of CPR during the dot-com bubble by shifting the time series to align their peaks. CPR mainly uncovers that the markets move in and out of periods of strong connectivity erratically, instead of moving monotonically towards increasing global connectivity. This is in contrast to ρ, which gives a picture of ever-increasing correlation. CPR also exhibits that time-shifted markets have high connectivity around the dot-com bubble of 2000. We use significance tests using twin surrogates to interpret all the measures estimated in the study.

1984–2010 trends in fire burn severity and area for the conterminous US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Picotte, Joshua J.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Meier, Gretchen; Howard, Stephen M.

2016-01-01

Burn severity products created by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project were used to analyse historical trends in burn severity. Using a severity metric calculated by modelling the cumulative distribution of differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and Relativized dNBR (RdNBR) data, we examined burn area and burn severity of 4893 historical fires (1984–2010) distributed across the conterminous US (CONUS) and mapped by MTBS. Yearly mean burn severity values (weighted by area), maximum burn severity metric values, mean area of burn, maximum burn area and total burn area were evaluated within 27 US National Vegetation Classification macrogroups. Time series assessments of burned area and severity were performed using Mann–Kendall tests. Burned area and severity varied by vegetation classification, but most vegetation groups showed no detectable change during the 1984–2010 period. Of the 27 analysed vegetation groups, trend analysis revealed burned area increased in eight, and burn severity has increased in seven. This study suggests that burned area and severity, as measured by the severity metric based on dNBR or RdNBR, have not changed substantially for most vegetation groups evaluated within CONUS.

Development of a subsurface gas flow probe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cutler, R.P.; Ballard, S.; Barker, G.T.

1997-04-01

This report describes a project to develop a flow probe to monitor gas movement in the vadose zone due to passive venting or active remediation efforts such as soil vapor extraction. 3-D and 1-D probes were designed, fabricated, tested in known flow fields under laboratory conditions, and field tested. The 3-D pores were based on technology developed for ground water flow monitoring. The probes gave excellent agreement with measured air velocities in the laboratory tests. Data processing software developed for ground water flow probes was modified for use with air flow, and to accommodate various probe designs. Modifications were mademore » to decrease the cost of the probes, including developing a downhole multiplexer. Modeling indicated problems with flow channeling due to the mode of deployment. Additional testing was conducted and modifications were made to the probe and to the deployment methods. The probes were deployed at three test sites: a large outdoor test tank, a brief vapor extraction test at the Chemical Waste landfill, and at an active remediation site at a local gas station. The data from the field tests varied markedly from the laboratory test data. All of the major events such as vapor extraction system turn on and turn off, as well as changes in the flow rate, could be seen in the data. However, there were long term trends in the data which were much larger than the velocity signals, which made it difficult to determine accurate air velocities. These long term trends may be due to changes in soil moisture content and seasonal ground temperature variations.« less

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

Quantification of Local Warming Trend: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Hassan, Quazi K.

2017-01-01

Understanding the warming trends at local level is critical; and, the development of relevant adaptation and mitigation policies at those levels are quite challenging. Here, our overall goal was to generate local warming trend map at 1 km spatial resolution by using: (i) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based 8-day composite surface temperature data; (ii) weather station-based yearly average air temperature data; and (iii) air temperature normal (i.e., 30 year average) data over the Canadian province of Alberta during the period 1961–2010. Thus, we analysed the station-based air temperature data in generating relationships between air temperature normal and yearly average air temperature in order to facilitate the selection of year-specific MODIS-based surface temperature data. These MODIS data in conjunction with weather station-based air temperature normal data were then used to model local warming trends. We observed that almost 88% areas of the province experienced warming trends (i.e., up to 1.5°C). The study concluded that remote sensing technology could be useful for delineating generic trends associated with local warming. PMID:28072857

Temporal changes and variability in temperature series over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaila, Jamaludin

2015-02-01

With the current concern over climate change, the descriptions on how temperature series changed over time are very useful. Annual mean temperature has been analyzed for several stations over Peninsular Malaysia. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for assessing the significance and detection of trends, while a nonparametric Pettitt's test and sequential Mann-Kendall test are adopted to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significance increasing trends for annual mean temperature are detected for almost all studied stations with the magnitude of significant trend varied from 0.02°C to 0.05°C per year. The results shows that climate over Peninsular Malaysia is getting warmer than before. In addition, the results of the abrupt changes in temperature using Pettitt's and sequential Mann-Kendall test reveal the beginning of trends which can be related to El Nino episodes that occur in Malaysia. In general, the analysis results can help local stakeholders and water managers to understand the risks and vulnerabilities related to climate change in terms of mean events in the region.

High temperature low-cycle fatigue mechanisms in single crystals of nickel-based superalloy Mar-M 200

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milligan, W. W.; Jayaraman, N.

1984-01-01

Twenty three high temperature low-cycle fatigue tests were conducted on single crystals of the nickel-based superalloy Mar-M 200. Tests were conducted at 760 and 870 C. SEM fractography and transmission electron microscopy were used to determine mechanisms responsible for the observed orientation dependent fatigue behavior. It has been concluded that the plastic characteristics of the alloy lead to orientation-dependent strain hardening and fatigue lives at 760 C. At 870 C, the elastic characteristics of the alloy dominated the behavior, even though the plastic strain ranges were about the same as they were at 760 C. This led to orientation-dependent fatigue lives, but the trends were not the same as they were at 760 C.

Design of a sediment data-collection program in Kansas as affected by time trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, P.R.

1985-01-01

Data collection programs need to be re-examined periodically in order to insure their usefulness, efficiency, and applicability. The possibility of time trends in sediment concentration, in particular, makes the examination with new statistical techniques desirable. After adjusting sediment concentrations for their relation to streamflow rates and by using a seasonal adaptation of Kendall 's nonparametric statistical test, time trends of flow-adjusted concentrations were detected for 11 of the 38 sediment records tested that were not affected by large reservoirs. Ten of the 11 trends were toward smaller concentrations; only 1 was toward larger concentrations. Of the apparent trends that were not statistically significant (0.05 level) using data available, nearly all were toward smaller concentrations. Because the reason for the lack of statistical significance of an apparent trend may be inadequacy of data rather than absence of trend and because of the prevalence of apparent trends in one direction, the assumption was made that a time trend may be present at any station. This assumption can significantly affect the design of a sediment data collection program. Sudden decreases (step trends) in flow-adjusted sediment concentrations were found at all stations that were short distances downstream from large reservoirs and that had adequate data for a seasonal adaptation of Wilcoxon 's nonparametric statistical test. Examination of sediment records in the 1984 data collection program of the Kansas Water Office indicated 13 stations that can be discontinued temporarily because data are now adequate. Data collection could be resumed in 1992 when new data may be needed because of possible time trends. New data are needed at eight previously operated stations where existing data may be inadequate or misleading because of time trends. Operational changes may be needed at some stations, such as hiring contract observers or installing automatic pumping samplers. Implementing the changes in the program can provide a substantial increase in the quantity of useful information on stream sediment for the same funding as the 1984 level. (Author 's abstract)

Identification of trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhajharia, Deepak; Yadav, Brijesh K.; Maske, Sunil; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Kar, Anil K.

2012-01-01

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.

Exploring stability of entropy analysis for signal with different trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Li, Jin; Wang, Jun

2017-03-01

Considering the effects of environment disturbances and instrument systems, the actual detecting signals always are carrying different trends, which result in that it is difficult to accurately catch signals complexity. So choosing steady and effective analysis methods is very important. In this paper, we applied entropy measures-the base-scale entropy and approximate entropy to analyze signal complexity, and studied the effect of trends on the ideal signal and the heart rate variability (HRV) signals, that is, linear, periodic, and power-law trends which are likely to occur in actual signals. The results show that approximate entropy is unsteady when we embed different trends into the signals, so it is not suitable to analyze signal with trends. However, the base-scale entropy has preferable stability and accuracy for signal with different trends. So the base-scale entropy is an effective method to analyze the actual signals.

A Vignette (User's Guide) for “An R Package for Statistical ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

StatCharrms is a graphical user front-end for ease of use in analyzing data generated from OCSPP 890.2200, Medaka Extended One Generation Reproduction Test (MEOGRT) and OCSPP 890.2300, Larval Amphibian Gonad Development Assay (LAGDA). The analyses StatCharrms is capable of performing are: Rao-Scott adjusted Cochran-Armitage test for trend By Slices (RSCABS), a Standard Cochran-Armitage test for trend By Slices (SCABS), mixed effects Cox proportional model, Jonckheere-Terpstra step down trend test, Dunn test, one way ANOVA, weighted ANOVA, mixed effects ANOVA, repeated measures ANOVA, and Dunnett test. This document provides a User’s Manual (termed a Vignette by the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)) for the previously created R-code tool called StatCharrms (Statistical analysis of Chemistry, Histopathology, and Reproduction endpoints using Repeated measures and Multi-generation Studies). The StatCharrms R-code has been publically available directly from EPA staff since the approval of OCSPP 890.2200 and 890.2300, and now is available publically available at the CRAN.

Rate of EGFR mutation testing for patients with nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer with implementation of reflex testing by pathologists

PubMed Central

Cheema, P.K.; Raphael, S.; El-Maraghi, R.; Li, J.; McClure, R.; Zibdawi, L.; Chan, A.; Victor, J.C.; Dolley, A.; Dziarmaga, A.

2017-01-01

Background Testing for mutation of the EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) gene is a standard of care for patients with advanced nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer (nsclc). To improve timely access to EGFR results, a few centres implemented reflex testing, defined as a request for EGFR testing by the pathologist at the time of a nonsquamous nsclc diagnosis. We evaluated the impact of reflex testing on EGFR testing rates. Methods A retrospective observational review of the Web-based AstraZeneca Canada EGFR Database from 1 April 2010 to 31 March 2014 found centres within Ontario that had requested EGFR testing through the database and that had implemented reflex testing (with at least 2 years’ worth of data, including the pre- and post-implementation period). Results The 7 included centres had requested EGFR tests for 2214 patients. The proportion of pathologists requesting EGFR tests increased after implementation of reflex testing (53% vs. 4%); conversely, the proportion of medical oncologists requesting tests decreased (46% vs. 95%, p < 0.001). After implementation of reflex testing, the mean number of patients having EGFR testing per centre per month increased significantly [12.6 vs. 4.9 (range: 4.5–14.9), p < 0.001]. Before reflex testing, EGFR testing rates showed a significant monthly increase over time (1.37 more tests per month; 95% confidence interval: 1.19 to 1.55 tests; p < 0.001). That trend could not account for the observed increase with reflex testing, because an immediate increase in EGFR test requests was observed with the introduction of reflex testing (p = 0.003), and the overall trend was sustained throughout the post–reflex testing period (p < 0.001). Conclusions Reflex EGFR testing for patients with nonsquamous nsclc was successfully implemented at multiple centres and was associated with an increase in EGFR testing. PMID:28270720

Removal of batteries from solid waste using trommel separation.

PubMed

Lau, S T; Cheung, W H; Kwong, C K; Wan, C P; Choy, K K H; Leung, C C; Porter, J F; Hui, C W; Mc Kay, G

2005-01-01

This paper describes the design and testing of a trommel for separation of batteries from solid waste. A trommel is a cylindrical separation device that rotates and performs size separation. It has also been used in areas such as municipal solid waste (MSW) processing, classifying construction and demolition debris, screening mass-burn incinerator ash and compost processing. A trommel has been designed based on size separation to separate household batteries from solid waste, which can then be used as feedstock for alternative applications of solid waste combustion, particularly where the metal content of the product is also a critical parameter, such as the Co-Co process for integrated cement and power production. This trommel has been tested with batches of university office and restaurant wastes against various factors. The recovery efficiency of batteries increases with decreasing inclination angle of the trommel and decreasing rotational speed. A physical characterization of the university solid waste has been performed with a 20-kg sample of the tested waste. It was found that there is a trend of decreasing recovery of batteries with increasing paper composition, and a trend of increasing recovery of batteries with increasing organic materials composition.

Design and Assessment of Online, Interactive Tutorials That Teach Science Process Skills.

PubMed

Kramer, Maxwell; Olson, Dalay; Walker, J D

2018-06-01

Explicit emphasis on teaching science process skills leads to both gains in the skills themselves and, strikingly, deeper understanding of content. Here, we created and tested a series of online, interactive tutorials with the goal of helping undergraduate students develop science process skills. We designed the tutorials in accordance with evidence-based multimedia design principles and student feedback from usability testing. We then tested the efficacy of the tutorials in an introductory undergraduate biology class. On the basis of a multivariate ordinary least-squares regression model, students who received the tutorials are predicted to score 0.82 points higher on a 15-point science process skill assessment than their peers who received traditional textbook instruction on the same topic. This moderate but significant impact indicates that well-designed online tutorials can be more effective than traditional ways of teaching science process skills to undergraduate students. We also found trends that suggest the tutorials are especially effective for nonnative English-speaking students. However, due to a limited sample size, we were unable to confirm that these trends occurred due to more than just variation in the student group sampled.

Subsonic flight test evaluation of a propulsion system parameter estimation process for the F100 engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orme, John S.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

1992-01-01

Integrated engine-airframe optimal control technology may significantly improve aircraft performance. This technology requires a reliable and accurate parameter estimator to predict unmeasured variables. To develop this technology base, NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility (Edwards, CA), McDonnell Aircraft Company (St. Louis, MO), and Pratt & Whitney (West Palm Beach, FL) have developed and flight-tested an adaptive performance seeking control system which optimizes the quasi-steady-state performance of the F-15 propulsion system. This paper presents flight and ground test evaluations of the propulsion system parameter estimation process used by the performance seeking control system. The estimator consists of a compact propulsion system model and an extended Kalman filter. The extended Laman filter estimates five engine component deviation parameters from measured inputs. The compact model uses measurements and Kalman-filter estimates as inputs to predict unmeasured propulsion parameters such as net propulsive force and fan stall margin. The ability to track trends and estimate absolute values of propulsion system parameters was demonstrated. For example, thrust stand results show a good correlation, especially in trends, between the performance seeking control estimated and measured thrust.

[The Visual Association Test to study episodic memory in clinical geriatric psychology].

PubMed

Diesfeldt, Han; Prins, Marleen; Lauret, Gijs

2018-04-01

The Visual Association Test (VAT) is a brief learning task that consists of six line drawings of pairs of interacting objects (association cards). Subjects are asked to name or identify each object and later are presented with one object from the pair (the cue) and asked to name the other (the target). The VAT was administered in a consecutive sample of 174 psychogeriatric day care participants with mild to major neurocognitive disorder. Comparison of test performance with normative data from non-demented subjects revealed that 69% scored within the range of a major deficit (0-8 over two recall trials), 14% a minor, and 17% no deficit (9-10, and ≥10 respectively).VAT-scores correlated with another test of memory function, the Cognitive Screening Test (CST), based on the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (r = 0.53). Tests of executive functioning (Expanded Mental Control Test, Category Fluency, Clock Drawing) did not add significantly to the explanation of variance in VAT-scores.Fifty-five participants (31.6%) were faced with initial problems in naming or identifying one or more objects on the cue cards or association cards. If necessary, naming was aided by the investigator. Initial difficulties in identifying cue objects were associated with lower VAT-scores, but this did not hold for difficulties in identifying target objects.A hierarchical multiple regression analysis was used to examine whether linear or quadratic trends best fitted VAT performance across the range of CST scores. The regression model revealed a linear but not a quadratic trend. The best fitting linear model implied that VAT scores differentiated between CST scores in the lower, as well as in the upper range, indicating the absence of floor and ceiling effects, respectively. Moreover, the VAT compares favourably to word list-learning tasks being more attractive in its presentation of interacting visual objects and cued recall based on incidental learning of the association between cues and targets.For practical purposes and based on documented sensitivity and specificity, Bayesian probability tables give predictive power of age-specific VAT cutoff scores for the presence or absence of a major neurocognitive disorder across a range of a priori probabilities or base rates.

Water quality and trend analysis of Colorado--Big Thompson system reservoirs and related conveyances, 1969 through 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in an ongoing cooperative monitoring program with the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, Bureau of Reclamation, and City of Fort Collins, has collected water-quality data in north-central Colorado since 1969 in reservoirs and conveyances, such as canals and tunnels, related to the Colorado?Big Thompson Project, a water-storage, collection, and distribution system. Ongoing changes in water use among agricultural and municipal users on the eastern slope of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, changing land use in reservoir watersheds, and other water-quality issues among Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District customers necessitated a reexamination of water-quality trends in the Colorado?Big Thompson system reservoirs and related conveyances. The sampling sites are on reservoirs, canals, and tunnels in the headwaters of the Colorado River (on the western side of the transcontinental diversion operations) and the headwaters of the Big Thompson River (on the eastern side of the transcontinental diversion operations). Carter Lake Reservoir and Horsetooth Reservoir are off-channel water-storage facilities, located in the foothills of the northern Colorado Front Range, for water supplied from the Colorado?Big Thompson Project. The length of water-quality record ranges from approximately 3 to 30 years depending on the site and the type of measurement or constituent. Changes in sampling frequency, analytical methods, and minimum reporting limits have occurred repeatedly over the period of record. The objective of this report was to complete a retrospective water-quality and trend analysis of reservoir profiles, nutrients, major ions, selected trace elements, chlorophyll-a, and hypolimnetic oxygen data from 1969 through 2000 in Lake Granby, Shadow Mountain Lake, and the Granby Pump Canal in Grand County, Colorado, and Horsetooth Reservoir, Carter Lake, Lake Estes, Alva B. Adams Tunnel, and Olympus Tunnel in Larimer County, Colorado. This report summarizes and assesses: Water-quality and field-measurement profile data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and stored in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System, Time-series trends of chemical constituents and physical properties, Trends in oxygen deficits in the hypolimnion of the reservoirs in the late summer season by the seasonal Kendall trend test method, Nutrient limitation and trophic status indicators, and Water-quality data in terms of Colorado water-quality standards. Water quality was generally acceptable for primary uses throughout the Colorado?Big Thompson system over the site periods of record, which are all within the span of 1969 to 2000. Dissolved solids and nutrient concentrations were low and typical of a forested/mountainous/crystalline bedrock hydrologic setting. Most of the more toxic trace elements were rarely detected or were found in low concentrations, due at least in part to a relative lack of ore-mineral deposits within the drainage areas of the Colorado?Big Thompson Project. Constituent concentrations consistently met water-quality standard thresholds set by the State of Colorado. Trophic-State Index Values indicated mesotrophic conditions generally prevailed at reservoirs, based on available Secchi depth, total phosphorus concentrations, and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Based on plots of time-series values and concentrations and seasonal Kendall nonparametric trends testing, dissolved solids and most major ions are decreasing at most sites. Many of the nutrient data did not meet the minimum criteria for time-series testing; but for those that did, nutrient concentrations were generally stable (no statistical trend) or decreasing (ammonia plus organic nitrogen and total phosphorus). Iron and manganese concentrations were stable or decreasing at most sites that met testing criteria. Chlorophyll-a data were only collected for 11 years but generally indicated quasi-stable or d

HERCULES GLADES WILDERNESS, MISSOURI.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Mary H.; Ryan, George S.

1984-01-01

Based on geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mine and claim surveys, Hercules Glades Wilderness, Missouri has little promise for the occurrence of metallic-mineral or energy resources in formations exposed at and near the surface. Upper Cambrian formations, known to contain major deposits of lead, zinc, silver, copper, nickel, and cobalt in the Viburnum Trend and Southeast Missouri mining districts, occur in the subsurface within the wilderness. Deep drilling to test the buried Cambrian formations for lithologic character and trace metals would be needed in order to permit apprasial of the potential of these formations for base-metal deposits.

Implementation of medical monitor system based on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hui; Cao, Yuzhen; Zhang, Lixin; Ding, Mingshi

2006-11-01

In this paper, the development trend of medical monitor system is analyzed and portable trend and network function become more and more popular among all kinds of medical monitor devices. The architecture of medical network monitor system solution is provided and design and implementation details of medical monitor terminal, monitor center software, distributed medical database and two kind of medical information terminal are especially discussed. Rabbit3000 system is used in medical monitor terminal to implement security administration of data transfer on network, human-machine interface, power management and DSP interface while DSP chip TMS5402 is used in signal analysis and data compression. Distributed medical database is designed for hospital center according to DICOM information model and HL7 standard. Pocket medical information terminal based on ARM9 embedded platform is also developed to interactive with center database on networks. Two kernels based on WINCE are customized and corresponding terminal software are developed for nurse's routine care and doctor's auxiliary diagnosis. Now invention patent of the monitor terminal is approved and manufacture and clinic test plans are scheduled. Applications for invention patent are also arranged for two medical information terminals.

On the physics of unstable infiltration, seepage, and gravity drainage in partially saturated tuffs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faybishenko, B.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Salve, R.

2002-04-01

To improve understanding of the physics of dynamic instabilities in unsaturated flow processes within the Paintbrush nonwelded unit (PTn) and the middle nonlithophysal portion of the Tonopah Spring welded tuff unit (TSw) of Yucca Mountain, we analyzed data from a series of infiltration tests carried out at two sites (Alcove 4 and Alcove 6) in the Exploratory Studies Facility, using analytical and empirical functions. The analysis of infiltration rates measured at both sites showed three temporal scales of infiltration rate: (1) a macro-scale trend of overall decreasing flow, (2) a meso-scale trend of fast and slow motion exhibiting three-stage variationsmore » of the flow rate (decreasing, increasing, and [again] decreasing flow rate, as observed in soils in the presence of entrapped air), and (3) micro-scale (high frequency) fluctuations. Infiltration tests in the nonwelded unit at Alcove 4 indicate that this unit may effectively dampen episodic fast infiltration events; however, well-known Kostyakov, Horton, and Philip equations do not satisfactorily describe the observed trends of the infiltration rate. Instead, a Weibull distribution model can most accurately describe experimentally determined time trends of the infiltration rate. Infiltration tests in highly permeable, fractured, welded tuff at Alcove 6 indicate that the infiltration rate exhibits pulsation, which may have been caused by multiple threshold effects and water-air redistribution between fractures and matrix. The empirical relationships between the extrinsic seepage from fractures, matrix imbibition, and gravity drainage versus the infiltration rate, as well as scaling and self-similarity for the leading edge of the water front are the hallmark of the nonlinear dynamic processes in water flow under episodic infiltration through fractured tuff. Based on the analysis of experimental data, we propose a conceptual model of a dynamic fracture flow and fracture-matrix interaction in fractured tuff, incorporating the time dependent processes of water redistribution in the fracture-matrix system.« less

Trends Plus: U.S. Medical School Applicants, Matriculants, Graduates 1992.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Association of American Medical Colleges, Washington, DC.

This report provides statistical data and charts concerning trends in undergraduate medical education over the past decade. It presents trends in grade point averages (GPAs); in Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores for premedical school applicants and matriculants; and provides information on applicant and matriculant characteristics,…

Effects of Multiple Nozzles on Asymmetric Ejector Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lineberry, D.; Landrum, B.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of a single nozzle and a dual nozzle strut based ejector. The results are focused on the fluid properties in the ejector duct. The research focused on choking mechanisms, mass flow entrainment, and mixing duct pressure distributions. The two ejectors were tests at equivalent primary mass flow rates. This corresponds to chamber pressures ranging from 100 psi to 900 psi in the single nozzle strut and 50 psi to 450 psi in the dual nozzle strut. Secondary flow was drawn from the lab at atmospheric pressure, and was not controlled. The secondary flow was found to choke at a value of 2.3 lb/s for a primary mass flow rate at approximately 2.1 lb/s for both ejectors. This choke was believed to be a mass addition choke rather than a traditional aerodynamic choke. The mixing duct pressure distribution exhibited two distinct trends at "low pressure" trend and at "high pressure" trend. For the low pressure trend, the mixing length for the ejectors remained fixed around 20 inches, regardless of the chamber pressure. For the higher pressure trend, the mixing length was considerably longer and increased with increasing chamber pressure. At high chamber pressures (high mass flow rates), a supersonic core flow was present at the exit of the duct. For these cases, the two streams did not have time to mix by the end of the duct.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Greek Children Living in Rural Areas Are Heavier but Fitter Compared to Their Urban Counterparts: A Comparative, Time-Series (1997-2008) Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tambalis, Konstantinos D.; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Sidossis, Labros S.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To compare 12-year (1997-2008) trends in the distribution of Body Mass Index (BMI) status and physical fitness test performances among 8- to 9-year-old Greek children living in rural and urban areas. Methods: Population data derived from 11 national school-based health surveys conducted from 1997 to 2008. Anthropometric measurements and…

Effectiveness of a mass media campaign in promoting HIV testing information seeking among African American women.

PubMed

Davis, Kevin C; Uhrig, Jennifer; Rupert, Douglas; Fraze, Jami; Goetz, Joshua; Slater, Michael

2011-10-01

"Take Charge. Take the Test." (TCTT), a media campaign promoting HIV testing among African American women, was piloted in Cleveland and Philadelphia from October 2006 to October 2007. This study assesses TCTT's effectiveness in promoting HIV testing information seeking among target audiences in each pilot city. The authors analyzed data on telephone hotlines promoted by the campaign and the www.hivtest.org Web site to examine trends in hotline calls and testing location searches before, during, and after the campaign. Cleveland hotline data were available from October 1, 2005, through February 28, 2008, for a total of 29 months (N = 126 weeks). Philadelphia hotline data were available from May 1, 2006, through February 28, 2008, for a total of 22 months (N = 96 weeks). The authors assessed the relation between market-level measures of the campaign's advertising activities and trends in hotline call volume and testing location searches. They found a significant relation between measures of TCTT advertising and hotline calls. Specifically, they found that increases in advertising gross ratings points were associated with increases in call volume, controlling for caller demographics and geographic location. The campaign had similar effects on HIV testing location searches. Overall, it appears the campaign generated significant increases in HIV information seeking. Results are consistent with other studies that have evaluated the effects of media campaigns on similar forms of information seeking. This study illustrates useful methods for evaluating campaign effects on information seeking with data on media implementation, hotline calls, and zip code-based searches for testing locations.

Cardiac Stress Test Trends Among US Patients Younger Than 65 Years, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Kini, Vinay; McCarthy, Fenton H; Dayoub, Elias; Bradley, Steven M; Masoudi, Frederick A; Ho, P Michael; Groeneveld, Peter W

2016-12-01

After a period of rapid growth, use of cardiac stress testing has recently decreased among Medicare beneficiaries and in a large integrated health system. However, it is not known whether declines in cardiac stress testing are universal or are confined to certain populations. To determine trends in rates of cardiac stress testing among a large and diverse cohort of commercially insured patients. A serial cross-sectional study with time trends was conducted using administrative claims from all members aged 25 to 64 years belonging to a large, national managed care company from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2012. Linear trends in rates were determined using negative binomial regression models with procedure count as the dependent variable, calendar quarter as the key independent variable, and the size of the population as a logged offset term. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2012. Age- and sex-adjusted rates of cardiac stress tests per calendar quarter (reported as number of tests per 100 000 person-years). A total of 2 085 591 cardiac stress tests were performed among 32 921 838 persons (mean [SD] age, 43.2 [10.9] years; 16 625 528 women [50.5%] and 16 296 310 [49.5%] men; 7 604 945 nonwhite [23.1%]). There was a 3.0% increase in rates of cardiac stress testing from 2005 (3486 tests; 95% CI, 3458-3514) to 2012 (3589 tests; 95% CI, 3559-3619; P = .01 for linear trend). Use of nuclear single-photon emission computed tomography decreased by 14.9% from 2005 (1907 tests; 95% CI, 1888-1926) to 2012 (1623 tests; 95% CI, 1603-1643; P = .03). Use of stress echocardiography increased by 27.8% from 2005 (709 tests; 95% CI, 697-721) to 2012 (906 tests; 95% CI, 894 to 920; P < .001). Use of exercise electrocardiography increased by 12.5% from 2005 (861 tests; 95% CI, 847-873) to 2012 (969 tests; 95% CI, 953-985; P < .001). Use of other stress testing modalities increased 65.5% from 2006 (55 tests; 95% CI, 51-59) to 2012 (91 tests; 95% CI, 87-95; P < .001). For individuals aged 25 to 34 years, rates of cardiac stress testing increased 59.1% from 2005 (543 tests; 95% CI, 532-554) to 2012 (864 tests; 95% CI, 852-876; P < .001). For individuals aged 55 to 64 years, rates of cardiac stress testing decreased by 12.3% from 2005 (7894 tests; 95% CI, 7820-7968) to 2012 (6923 tests; 95% CI, 6853-6993; P < .001). In contrast to declines in the use of cardiac stress testing in some health care systems, we observed a small increase in its use among a nationally representative cohort of commercially insured patients. Our findings suggest that observed trends in the use of cardiac stress testing may have been driven more by unique characteristics of populations and health systems than national efforts to reduce the overuse of testing.

Water quality status and trends in agriculture-dominated headwaters; a national monitoring network for assessing the effectiveness of national and European manure legislation in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Rozemeijer, J C; Klein, J; Broers, H P; van Tol-Leenders, T P; van der Grift, B

2014-12-01

Large nutrient losses to groundwater and surface waters are a major drawback of the highly productive agricultural sector in The Netherlands. The resulting high nutrient concentrations in water resources threaten their ecological, industrial, and recreational functions. To mitigate eutrophication problems, legislation on nutrient application in agriculture was enforced in 1986 in The Netherlands. The objective of this study was to evaluate this manure policy by assessing the water quality status and trends in agriculture-dominated headwaters. We used datasets from 5 agricultural test catchments and from 167 existing monitoring locations in agricultural headwaters. Trend analysis for these locations showed a fast reduction of nutrient concentrations after the enforcement of the manure legislation (median slopes of -0.55 mg/l per decade for total nitrogen (N-tot) and -0.020 mg/l per decade for total phosphorus (P-tot)). Still, up to 76 % of the selected locations currently do not comply with either the environmental quality standards (EQSs) for nitrogen (N-tot) or phosphorus (P-tot). This indicates that further improvement of agricultural water quality is needed. We observed that weather-related variations in nutrient concentrations strongly influence the compliance testing results, both for individual locations and for the aggregated results at the national scale. Another important finding is that testing compliance for nutrients based on summer average concentrations may underestimate the agricultural impact on ecosystem health. The focus on summer concentrations does not account for the environmental impact of high winter loads from agricultural headwaters towards downstream water bodies.

Water quality status and trends in agriculture dominated headwaters; a national monitoring network for assessing the effectiveness of national and European manure legislation in The Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozemeijer, J.; Klein, J.

2016-12-01

Large nutrient losses to groundwater and surface waters are a major drawback of the highly productive agricultural sector in The Netherlands. The resulting high nutrient concentrations in water resources threaten their ecological, industrial, and recreational functions. To mitigate eutrophication problems, legislation on nutrient application in agriculture was enforced in 1986 in The Netherlands. The objective of this study was to evaluate this manure policy by assessing the water quality status and trends in agriculture dominated headwaters. We used datasets from 5 agricultural test catchments and from 167 existing monitoring locations in agricultural headwaters. Trend analysis for these locations showed a fast reduction of nutrient concentrations after the enforcement of the manure legislation (median slopes of -0.55 mg/L per decade for total nitrogen (N-tot) and -0.020 mg/L per decade for total phosphorus (P-tot)). Still, up to 76% of the selected locations currently do not comply with either the environmental quality standards (EQSs) for nitrogen (N-tot) or phosphorus (P-tot). This indicates that further improvement of agricultural water quality is needed. We observed that weather-related variations in nutrient concentrations strongly influence the compliance testing results, both for individual locations and for the aggregated results at the national scale. Another important finding is that testing compliance for nutrients based on summer average concentrations may underestimate the agricultural impact on ecosystem health. The focus on summer concentrations does not account for the environmental impact of high winter loads from agricultural headwaters towards downstream water bodies.

Characterization and Simulation of the Thermoacoustic Instability Behavior of an Advanced, Low Emissions Combustor Prototype

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLaat, John C.; Paxson, Daniel E.

2008-01-01

Extensive research is being done toward the development of ultra-low-emissions combustors for aircraft gas turbine engines. However, these combustors have an increased susceptibility to thermoacoustic instabilities. This type of instability was recently observed in an advanced, low emissions combustor prototype installed in a NASA Glenn Research Center test stand. The instability produces pressure oscillations that grow with increasing fuel/air ratio, preventing full power operation. The instability behavior makes the combustor a potentially useful test bed for research into active control methods for combustion instability suppression. The instability behavior was characterized by operating the combustor at various pressures, temperatures, and fuel and air flows representative of operation within an aircraft gas turbine engine. Trends in instability behavior versus operating condition have been identified and documented, and possible explanations for the trends provided. A simulation developed at NASA Glenn captures the observed instability behavior. The physics-based simulation includes the relevant physical features of the combustor and test rig, employs a Sectored 1-D approach, includes simplified reaction equations, and provides time-accurate results. A computationally efficient method is used for area transitions, which decreases run times and allows the simulation to be used for parametric studies, including control method investigations. Simulation results show that the simulation exhibits a self-starting, self-sustained combustion instability and also replicates the experimentally observed instability trends versus operating condition. Future plans are to use the simulation to investigate active control strategies to suppress combustion instabilities and then to experimentally demonstrate active instability suppression with the low emissions combustor prototype, enabling full power, stable operation.

Acoustic Measurements for Small Solid Rocket Motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vargas, Magda B.; Kenny, R. Jeremy

2010-01-01

Models have been developed to predict large solid rocket motor acoustic loads based on the scaling of small solid rocket motors. MSFC has measured several small solid rocket motors in horizontal and launch configurations to anchor these models. Solid Rocket Test Motor (SRTM) has ballistics similar to the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) therefore a good choice for acoustic scaling. Acoustic measurements were collected during the test firing of the Insulation Configuration Extended Length (ICXL) 7,6, and 8 (in firing order) in order to compare to RSRM horizontal firing data. The scope of this presentation includes: Acoustic test procedures and instrumentation implemented during the three SRTM firings and Data analysis method and general trends observed in the data.

Enrollment Management Trends Report, 2012: A Snapshot of the 2011 ACT-Tested High School Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

ACT, Inc., 2012

2012-01-01

ACT created the "Enrollment Management Trends Report" to provide enrollment managers and other college administrators with information about students' patterns during the college choice process of the 2011 high school graduates who took the ACT[R] test. More than 1.6 million students--roughly half of the graduating class of 2011--took…

Controlling HIV Epidemics among Injection Drug Users: Eight Years of Cross-Border HIV Prevention Interventions in Vietnam and China

PubMed Central

Hammett, Theodore M.; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Kling, Ryan; Kieu, Binh Thanh; McNicholl, Janet M.; Wasinrapee, Punneeporn; McDougal, J. Stephen; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Meng, Donghua; Huu Nguyen, Tho; Ngoc Hoang, Quyen; Van Hoang, Tren

2012-01-01

Introduction HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China. Methods Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples. Results We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months. Discussion This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication. PMID:22952640

[Research progress on mechanical performance evaluation of artificial intervertebral disc].

PubMed

Li, Rui; Wang, Song; Liao, Zhenhua; Liu, Weiqiang

2018-03-01

The mechanical properties of artificial intervertebral disc (AID) are related to long-term reliability of prosthesis. There are three testing methods involved in the mechanical performance evaluation of AID based on different tools: the testing method using mechanical simulator, in vitro specimen testing method and finite element analysis method. In this study, the testing standard, testing equipment and materials of AID were firstly introduced. Then, the present status of AID static mechanical properties test (static axial compression, static axial compression-shear), dynamic mechanical properties test (dynamic axial compression, dynamic axial compression-shear), creep and stress relaxation test, device pushout test, core pushout test, subsidence test, etc. were focused on. The experimental techniques using in vitro specimen testing method and testing results of available artificial discs were summarized. The experimental methods and research status of finite element analysis were also summarized. Finally, the research trends of AID mechanical performance evaluation were forecasted. The simulator, load, dynamic cycle, motion mode, specimen and test standard would be important research fields in the future.

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

Groundwater quality data in 15 GAMA study units: results from the 2006–10 Initial sampling and the 2009–13 resampling of wells, California GAMA Priority Basin Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kent, Robert

2015-08-31

Most constituents that were detected in groundwater samples from the trend wells were found at concentrations less than drinking-water benchmarks. Two volatile organic compounds (VOCs)—tetrachloroethene and trichloroethene—were detected in samples from one or more wells at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks, and three VOCs—chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and trichloroethene—were detected in at least 10 percent of the trend-well samples from the initial sampling period and the later trend sampling period. No pesticides were detected at concentrations near or greater than their health-based benchmarks. Three pesticide constituents—atrazine, deethylatrazine, and simazine—were detected in more than 10 percent of the trend-well samples in both sampling periods. Perchlorate, a constituent of special interest, was detected at a concentration greater than its health-based benchmark in samples from one trend well in the initial sampling and trend sampling periods, and in an additional trend well sample only in the trend sampling period. Most detections of nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements in samples from trend wells were less than health-based benchmarks in both sampling periods. Exceptions included nitrate, fluoride, arsenic, boron, molybdenum, strontium, and uranium; these were all detected at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks in at least one well sample in both sampling periods. Lead and vanadium were detected above their health-based benchmarks in one sample each collected in the initial sampling period only. The isotopic ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water and the activities of tritium and carbon-14 generally changed little between sampling periods.

Trends in Serosorting and the Association With HIV/STI Risk Over Time Among Men Who Have Sex With Men

PubMed Central

Dombrowski, Julia C.; Swanson, Fred; Kerani, Roxanne P.; Katz, David A.; Barbee, Lindley A.; Hughes, James P.; Manhart, Lisa E.; Golden, Matthew R.

2016-01-01

Background: Serosorting among men who have sex with men (MSM) is common, but recent data to describe trends in serosorting are limited. How serosorting affects population-level trends in HIV and other sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk is largely unknown. Methods: We collected data as part of routine care from MSM attending a sexually transmitted disease clinic (2002–2013) and a community-based HIV/sexually transmitted disease testing center (2004–2013) in Seattle, WA. MSM were asked about condom use with HIV-positive, HIV-negative, and unknown-status partners in the prior 12 months. We classified behaviors into 4 mutually exclusive categories: no anal intercourse (AI); consistent condom use (always used condoms for AI); serosorting [condom-less anal intercourse (CAI) only with HIV-concordant partners]; and nonconcordant CAI (CAI with HIV-discordant/unknown-status partners; NCCAI). Results: Behavioral data were complete for 49,912 clinic visits. Serosorting increased significantly among both HIV-positive and HIV-negative men over the study period. This increase in serosorting was concurrent with a decrease in NCCAI among HIV-negative MSM, but a decrease in consistent condom use among HIV-positive MSM. Adjusting for time since last negative HIV test, the risk of testing HIV positive during the study period decreased among MSM who reported NCCAI (7.1%–2.8%; P= 0.02), serosorting (2.4%–1.3%; P = 0.17), and no CAI (1.5%–0.7%; P = 0.01). Serosorting was associated with a 47% lower risk of testing HIV positive compared with NCCAI (adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.45 to 0.62). Conclusions: Between 2002 and 2013, serosorting increased and NCCAI decreased among Seattle MSM. These changes paralleled a decline in HIV test positivity among MSM. PMID:26885806

Trends in cooling degree-days for five locations in Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cvitan, L.

2010-09-01

The cooling degree-days (CDD) and number of cooling days (CD) over the period 1901-2008 are analyzed at five stations that represent different climatic regions in Croatia. The stations under consideration are: Osijek in the southern lowland of Pannonian Plain, Zagreb - Grič at the furthest south-eastern edge of the Julian Alps, Gospić in highland - hinterland of the Dinaric Alps, Crikvenica on the north-eastern Adriatic coast and Hvar on the mid - Adriatic island with the same name. Calculation of CDDs and counting of CDs are performed for the 18° C, 21° C and 23° C temperature thresholds that represent daily mean air temperature. Daily mean temperature (M) is calculated by using daily temperatures measured at 7 a.m. (t7), 2 p.m. (t14) and 9 p.m. (t21), in the following way: M=(t7+t14+2t21)/4. Linear trends over the period 1901-2008 are determined for each month as well as for the whole year (annual trend). Statistical significances of the trends are tested using the non-parametric Mann - Kendal test. For the months with the greatest potential cooling demands - June, July and August, the increasing trend is detected for almost all analyzed values at five locations. Namely, only for the August CD (threshold 18° C) for Hvar area and for the June and August CDDs (threshold 23° C) for Gospić area are detected slightly decreasing trends. Most slightly decreasing trends are discovered for September for both parameters at Osijek, Zagreb and Gospić area. Annual trends in both parameters for all locations are increasing, except the annual Gospić CDD (threshold 23° C) trend that is slightly decreasing. According to the Mann - Kendal test neither of the annual trends in CDD and CD for three temperature thresholds are statistically significant at 0.05 significance level in Gospić and Osijek. On the contrary, all of the mentioned annual trends are significant in Zagreb and Crikvenica, and almost all in Hvar (except trends in CD for the 21° C and 23° C thresholds). Months with the significant trends in most of analyzed values are: May and June in Osijek, May, June and July in Zagreb, June in Gospić, June, July and August in Crikvenica and July in Hvar.

A high resolution satellite view of surface solar radiation over the climatically sensitive region of Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandri, G.; Georgoulias, A. K.; Meleti, C.; Balis, D.; Kourtidis, K. A.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Trentmann, J.; Zanis, P.

2017-05-01

In this work, the spatiotemporal variability of surface solar radiation (SSR) is examined over the Eastern Mediterranean region for a 31-year period (1983-2013). The CM SAF SARAH (Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring Solar surfAce RAdiation Heliosat) satellite-based product was found to be homogeneous (based on relative Standard Normal Homogeneity Tests - SNHTs, 95% confidence level) as compared to ground-based observations, and hence appropriate for climatological studies. Specifically, the dataset shows good agreement with monthly observations from five quality assured stations in the region with a mean bias of 7.1 W/m2 or 3.8% and a strong correlation. This high resolution (0.05° × 0.05°) product is capable of revealing various local features. Over land, the SSR levels are highly dependent on the topography, while over the sea, they exhibit a smooth latitudinal variability. SSR varies significantly over the region on a seasonal basis being three times higher in summer (309.6 ± 26.5 W/m2) than in winter (100.2 ± 31.4 W/m2). The CM SAF SARAH product was compared against three satellite-based and one reanalysis products. The satellite-based data from CERES (Cloud and the Earth's Radiant Energy System), GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) and ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) underestimate SSR while the reanalysis data from the ERA-Interim overestimate SSR compared to CM SAF SARAH. Using a radiative transfer model and a set of ancillary data, these biases are attributed to the atmospheric parameters that drive the transmission of solar radiation in the atmosphere, namely, clouds, aerosols and water vapor. It is shown that the bias between CERES and CM SAF SARAH SSR can be explained through the cloud fractional cover and aerosol optical depth biases between these datasets. The CM SAF SARAH SSR trend was found to be positive (brightening) and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level (0.2 ± 0.05 W/m2/year or 0.1 ± 0.02%/year) being almost the same over land and sea. The CM SAF SARAH SSR trends are closer to the ground-based ones than the CERES, GEWEX, ISCCP and ERA-Interim trends. The use of an aerosol climatology for the production of CM SAF SARAH, that neglects the trends of aerosol loads, leads to an underestimation of the SSR trends. It is suggested here, that the inclusion of changes of the aerosol load and composition within CM SAF SARAH would allow for a more accurate reproduction of the SSR trends.

Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-05-01

The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: time trends of selected exposures

PubMed Central

Dawson, April L.; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A.; Parker, Samantha E.; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-01-01

Background Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). Methods We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 –2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between six weeks and two years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall’s τβ test statistic. Results The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998–2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of SSRIs and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Conclusions Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. PMID:25884728

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: Time trends of selected exposures.

PubMed

Dawson, April L; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A; Parker, Samantha E; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-08-01

Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 to 2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between 6 weeks and 2 years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall's τβ test statistic. The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998 to 2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of GPS tropospheric delays derived from two consecutive EPN reprocessing campaigns from the point of view of climate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this research was to acquire information about consistency of ZTD (zenith total delay) linear trends and seasonal components between two consecutive GPS reprocessing campaigns. The analysis concerned two sets of the ZTD time series which were estimated during EUREF (Reference Frame Sub-Commission for Europe) EPN (Permanent Network) reprocessing campaigns according to 2008 and 2015 MUT AC (Military University of Technology Analysis Centre) scenarios. Firstly, Lomb-Scargle periodograms were generated for 57 EPN stations to obtain a characterisation of oscillations occurring in the ZTD time series. Then, the values of seasonal components and linear trends were estimated using the LSE (least squares estimation) approach. The Mann-Kendall trend test was also carried out to verify the presence of linear long-term ZTD changes. Finally, differences in seasonal signals and linear trends between these two data sets were investigated. All these analyses were conducted for the ZTD time series of two lengths: a shortened 16-year series and a full 18-year one. In the case of spectral analysis, amplitudes of the annual and semi-annual periods were almost exactly the same for both reprocessing campaigns. Exceptions were found for only a few stations and they did not exceed 1 mm. The estimated trends were also similar. However, for the reprocessing performed in 2008, the trends values were usually higher. In general, shortening of the analysed time period by 2 years resulted in a decrease of the linear trends values of about 0.07 mm yr-1. This was confirmed by analyses based on two data sets.

Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

PubMed Central

Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Thasiphu, Thalisa; Weon, Jong-Il; Boonprasert, Rattana; Tuitemwong, Kooranee; Tuitemwong, Pravate

2015-01-01

Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants). In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed. PMID:25884032

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

rinaldi, eleonora; colella, simone; santoleri, rosalia

2014-05-01

Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, seen as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool in order to understand the response of marine ecosystem to human pressures. This is particularly important along the coastal regions, in which the strong anthropization and the irrational exploitation of resources represent a persistent threat to the biodiversity. The aim of this work is to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ocean Color (OC) data to monitor the environmental changes in Mediterranean Sea and to develop a method for detecting trend from OC data that can constitute a new indicator of the water quality within the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive implementation. In this study the Mediterranean merged Case1-Case2 chlorophyll product, produced by CNR-ISAC and distributed in the framework of MyOcean, is analyzed. This product is obtained by using two different bio-optical algorithms for open ocean (Case1) and coastal turbid (Case2) waters; this improves the quality of the Chl satellite estimates, especially near the coast. In order to verify the real capability of the this product for estimating Chl trend and for selecting the most appropriated statistical test to detect trend in the Mediterranean Sea, a comparison between OC and in situ data are carried out. In-situ Chl data are part of the European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet) of the European Environmental Agency (EEA). Four different statistical approaches to estimate trend have been selected and used to compare trend values obtained with in-situ and OC data. Results show that the best agreement between in-situ and OC trend is achieved using the Mann- Kendall test. The Mediterranean trend map obtained applying this test to the de-seasonalized OC time series shows that, in accordance with the results of many authors, the case 1 waters of Mediterranean sea are characterized by a negative trend. However, the most intense trend signals, both negative and positive, are found in case 2 waters in correspondence of the river deltas. These trend signals are frequently linked to the implementation or non-implementation of the legislation introduced to control the nutrient discharge into the sea from European rivers.

Evaluating regional trends in ground-water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin ground water management area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2005-01-01

Trends in nitrate concentrations in water from 474 wells in 17 subregions in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) in three counties in eastern Washington were evaluated using a variety of statistical techniques, including the Friedman test and the Kendall test. The Kendall test was modified from its typical 'seasonal' version into a 'regional' version by using well locations in place of seasons. No statistically significant trends in nitrate concentrations were identified in samples from wells in the GWMA, the three counties, or the 17 subregions from 1998 to 2002 when all data were included in the analysis. For wells in which nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L), however, a significant downward trend of -0.4 mg/L per year was observed between 1998 and 2002 for the GWMA as a whole, as well as for Adams County (-0.35 mg/L per year) and for Franklin County (-0.46 mg/L per year). Trend analysis for a smaller but longer-term 51-well dataset in Franklin County found a statistically significant upward trend in nitrate concentrations of 0.1 mg/L per year between 1986 and 2003. The largest increase of nitrate concentrations occurred between 1986 and 1991. No statistically significant differences were observed in this dataset between 1998 and 2003 indicating that the increase in nitrate concentrations has leveled off.

Aerodynamic flight evaluation analysis and data base update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyle, W. W.; Miller, M. S.; Wilder, G. O.; Reheuser, R. D.; Sharp, R. S.; Bridges, G. I.

1989-01-01

Research was conducted to determine the feasibility of replacing the Solid Rocket Boosters on the existing Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle (SSLV) with Liquid Rocket Boosters (LRB). As a part of the LRB selection process, a series of wind tunnel tests were conducted along with aero studies to determine the effects of different LRB configurations on the SSLV. Final results were tabulated into increments and added to the existing SSLV data base. The research conducted in this study was taken from a series of wind tunnel tests conducted at Marshall's 14-inch Trisonic Wind Tunnel. The effects on the axial force (CAF), normal force (CNF), pitching moment (CMF), side force (CY), wing shear force (CSR), wing torque moment (CTR), and wing bending moment (CBR) coefficients were investigated for a number of candidate LRB configurations. The aero effects due to LRB protuberances, ET/LRB separation distance, and aft skirts were also gathered from the tests. Analysis was also conducted to investigate the base pressure and plume effects due to the new booster geometries. The test results found in Phases 1 and 2 of wind tunnel testing are discussed and compared. Preliminary LRB lateral/directional data results and trends are given. The protuberance and gap/skirt effects are discussed. The base pressure/plume effects study is discussed and results are given.

Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jin; Islam, A. R. M. Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

2017-10-01

With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

Spatiotemporal variations of potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in relation to influencing factors over Southwest China during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yifei; Zou, Xinqing; Cao, Liguo; Yao, Yulong; Fu, Guanghe

2017-07-01

This study investigated the spatial-temporal patterns and trends of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and aridity index (AI) over Southwest China during 1960-2013 based on daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, total solar radiation, and relative humidity data from 108 meteorological stations. The Penman-Monteith model, Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, moving t test, and Morlet wavelet method were used. The results indicated that ET0 and AI across the region displayed decreasing trends, but the former was significant. After 2000, regionally average trends in ET0 and AI increased rapidly, indicating that droughts increased over Southwest China in recent years. Spatially, the changes of ET0 and AI were dissimilar and not clustered, either. Temporally, both ET0 and AI displayed obvious abrupt change points over different timescales and that of AI was during the winter monsoon period. Significant periodic variations with periods of 27, 13, and 5 years were found in ET0, but only of 13 and 5 years existed in AI. Correlation analysis revealed that the sunshine duration and wind speed were the dominant factors affecting ET0 and that AI showed strong negative correlation with precipitation. The findings of this study enhance the understanding of the relationship between climate change and drought in Southwest China, while the mechanism controlling the variation in drought requires further study.

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

PubMed Central

Bishai, David; Opuni, Marjorie

2009-01-01

Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform. PMID:19698144

International trends in alcohol and drug use among vehicle drivers.

PubMed

Christophersen, A S; Mørland, J; Stewart, K; Gjerde, H

2016-01-01

Trends in the use of alcohol and drugs among motor vehicle drivers in Australia, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and the United States have been reviewed. Laws, regulations, enforcement, and studies on alcohol and drugs in biological samples from motor vehicle drivers in general road traffic and fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) are discussed. Roadside surveys showed a reduction of drunk driving over time in the studied countries; however, the pattern varied within and between different countries. The reduction of alcohol use may be related to changes in road traffic laws, public information campaigns, and enforcement, including implementation of random breath testing or sobriety checkpoints. For non-alcohol drugs, the trend in general road traffic is an increase in use. However, drugs were not included in older studies; it is therefore impossible to assess the trends over longer time periods. Data from the studied countries, except Brazil, have shown a significant decrease in fatal RTCs per 100,000 inhabitants over the last decades; from 18.6 to 4.9 in Australia, 14.5 to 2.9 in Norway, 11.1 to 3.6 in Spain, and 19.3 to 10.3 in the United States. The number of alcohol-related fatal RTCs also decreased during the same time period. The proportion of fatal RTCs related to non-alcohol drugs increased, particularly for cannabis and stimulants. A general challenge when comparing alcohol and drug findings in biological samples from several countries is connected to differences in study design, particularly the time period for performing roadside surveys, biological matrix types, drugs included in the analytical program, and the cutoff limits used for evaluation of results. For RTC fatalities, the cases included are based on the police requests for legal autopsy or drug testing, which may introduce a significant selection bias. General comparisons between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries as well as a discussion of possible future trends are included. Copyright © 2016 Central Police University.

Summary of tectonic and structural evidence for stress orientation at the Nevada Test Site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, Wilfred James

1974-01-01

A tectonic synthesis of the NTS (Nevada Test Site) region, when combined with seismic data and a few stress and strain measurements, suggests a tentative model for stress orientation. This model proposes that the NTS is undergoing extension in a N. 50 ? W.-S. 50 ? E. direction coincident with the minimum principal stress direction. The model is supported by (1) a tectonic similarity between a belt of NTS Quaternary faulting and part of the Nevada-California seismic belt, for which northwest-southeast extension has been suggested; (2) historic northeast- trending natural- and explosion-produced fractures in the NTS; (3) the virtual absence in the NTS of northwest-trending Quaternary faults; (4) the character of north-trending faults and basin configuration in the Yucca Flat area, which suggest a component of right-lateral displacement and post-10 m.y. (million year) oblique separation of the sides of the north-trending depression; (5) seismic evidence suggesting a north- to northwest-trending tension axis; (6) strain measurements, which indicate episodes of northwest-southeast extension within a net northeast-southwest compression; (7) a stress estimate based on tectonic cracking that indicates near-surface northwest-southeast-directed tension, and two stress measurements indicating an excess (tectonic) maximum principal compressive stress in a northeast-southwest direction at depths of about 1,000 feet (305 m); and (8) enlargement of some drill holes in Yucca Flat in a northwest-southeast direction. It is inferred that the stress episode resulting in the formation of deep alluvium-filled trenches began somewhere between 10 and possibly less than 4 m.y. ago in the NTS and is currently active. In the Walker Lane of western Nevada, crystallization of plutons associated with Miocene volcanism may have increased the competency and thickness of the crust and its ability to propagate stress, thereby modulating the frequency (spacing) of basin-range faults.

An ecological study of prostate cancer mortality in the USA and UK, 1975-2004: are divergent trends a consequence of treatment, screening or artefact?

PubMed Central

Collin, Simon M; Martin, Richard M; Metcalfe, Chris; Gunnell, David; Albertsen, Peter; Neal, David; Hamdy, Freddie; Stephens, Peter; Lane, J Athene; Moore, Rollo; Donovan, Jenny

2009-01-01

Background There is no conclusive evidence that screening based on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests reduces prostate cancer mortality. In the USA uptake of PSA testing has been rapid, but is much less common in the UK. Purpose To investigate trends in prostate cancer mortality and incidence in the USA and UK from 1975-2004, contrasting these with trends in screening and treatment. Methods Joinpoint regression analysis of cancer mortality statistics from Cancer Research UK and the USA National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program was used to estimate the annual percentage change in prostate cancer mortality in each country and the points in time when trends changed. Results Age-specific and age-adjusted prostate cancer mortality peaked in the early 1990s at almost identical rates in both countries, but age-adjusted mortality in the USA subsequently declined by 4.2% (95% CI 4.0-4.3%) per annum, four times the rate of decline in the UK (1.1%; 0.8-1.4%). The mortality decline in the USA was greatest and most sustained in those ≥75 years, whereas death rates had plateaued in this age group in the UK by 2000. Conclusion The striking decline in prostate cancer mortality in the USA compared with the UK between 1994-2004 coincided with much higher uptake of PSA screening in the USA. Explanations for the different trends in mortality include the possibility of an early impact of initial screening rounds on men with more aggressive asymptomatic disease in the USA, different approaches to treatment in the two countries, and bias related to the misattribution of cause of death. Speculation over the role of screening will continue until evidence from randomised controlled trials is published. PMID:18424233

Development and design of a late-model fitness test instrument based on LabView

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Ying; Wu, Feiqing

2010-12-01

Undergraduates are pioneers of China's modernization program and undertake the historic mission of rejuvenating our nation in the 21st century, whose physical fitness is vital. A smart fitness test system can well help them understand their fitness and health conditions, thus they can choose more suitable approaches and make practical plans for exercising according to their own situation. following the future trends, a Late-model fitness test Instrument based on LabView has been designed to remedy defects of today's instruments. The system hardware consists of fives types of sensors with their peripheral circuits, an acquisition card of NI USB-6251 and a computer, while the system software, on the basis of LabView, includes modules of user register, data acquisition, data process and display, and data storage. The system, featured by modularization and an open structure, is able to be revised according to actual needs. Tests results have verified the system's stability and reliability.

TRENDS IN FLOODS AND LOW FLOWS IN THE UNITED STATES: IMPACT OF SPATIAL CORRELATION. (R824992,R826888)

EPA Science Inventory

Trends in flood and low flows in the US were evaluated using a regional average Kendall's S trend test at two spatial scales and over two timeframes. Field significance was assessed using a bootstrap methodology to account for the observed regional cross-correlation of streamflow...

Hydrochemical evaluation of river water quality—a case study: Horroud River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falah, Fatemeh; Haghizadeh, Ali

2017-12-01

Surface waters, especially rivers are the most important sources of water supply for drinking and agricultural purposes. Water with desirable quality is necessary for human life. Therefore, knowledge of water quality and its temporal changes is of particular importance in sustainable management of water resources. In this study, available data during 20 years from two hydrometry stations located in the way of Horroud River in Lorestan province were used and analyzed using Aq.QA software. Piper, Schoeller, Stiff, and Wilcox diagram were drawn and Mann-Kendal test was used for determining data trend. According to Wilcox diagram, water of this river in both stations is placed in c2s1 class which is good for agricultural purposes, and according to Schoeller diagram, there is no restrict for drinking purposes. Results of Man-Kendal test show increasing trend for colorine, EC, TDS while decreasing trend for potassium in Kakareza station. On the other hand in Dehnu station, positive trend was seen in calcium and colorine while negative trend for sulfate and potassium. For other variables, no specific trend was found.

Impact of aerosols and clouds on decadal trends in all-sky solar radiation over the Netherlands (1966-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Reinout; Brandsma, Theo; Pier Siebesma, A.

2017-07-01

A 50-year hourly data set of global shortwave radiation, cloudiness and visibility over the Netherlands was used to quantify the contribution of aerosols and clouds to the trend in yearly-averaged all-sky radiation (1.81 ± 1.07 W m-2 decade-1). Yearly-averaged clear-sky and cloud-base radiation data show large year-to-year fluctuations caused by yearly changes in the occurrence of clear and cloudy periods and cannot be used for trend analysis. Therefore, proxy clear-sky and cloud-base radiations were computed. In a proxy analysis hourly radiation data falling within a fractional cloudiness value are fitted by monotonic increasing functions of solar zenith angle and summed over all zenith angles occurring in a single year to produce an average. Stable trends can then be computed from the proxy radiation data. A functional expression is derived whereby the trend in proxy all-sky radiation is a linear combination of trends in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky radiation and proxy cloud-base radiation. Trends (per decade) in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky and proxy cloud-base radiation were, respectively, 0.0097 ± 0.0062, 2.78 ± 0.50 and 3.43 ± 1.17 W m-2. To add up to the all-sky radiation the three trends have weight factors, namely the difference between the mean cloud-base and clear-sky radiation, the clear-sky fraction and the fractional cloudiness, respectively. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that all three components contribute significantly to the observed trend in all-sky radiation. Radiative transfer calculations using the aerosol optical thickness derived from visibility observations indicate that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) is a strong candidate to explain the upward trend in the clear-sky radiation. Aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) may have some impact on cloud-base radiation, but it is suggested that decadal changes in cloud thickness and synoptic-scale changes in cloud amount also play an important role.

A comparative population-based study of prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva, Switzerland from 1973 to 2006.

PubMed

Chen, Cynthia; Naidoo, Nasheen; Yang, Qian; Hartman, Mikael; Verkooijen, Helena M; Loy, En Yun; Bouchardy, Christine; Chia, Kee Seng; Chia, Sin Eng

2012-06-06

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in men in Sweden and Geneva, and the third most common in men in Singapore. This population-based study describes trends in the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva (Switzerland) from 1973 to 2006 and explores possible explanations for these different trends. Data from patients diagnosed with prostate cancer were extracted from national cancer registries in Singapore (n = 5,172), Sweden (n = 188,783) and Geneva (n = 5,755) from 1973 to 2006. Trends of incidence and mortality were reported using the Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The age, period and birth-cohort were tested as predictors of incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Incidence rates of prostate cancer increased over all time periods for all three populations. Based on the age-period-cohort analysis, older age and later period of diagnosis were associated with a higher incidence of prostate cancer, whereas older age and earlier period were associated with higher mortality rates for prostate cancer in all three countries. This study demonstrated an overall increase in incidence rates and decrease in mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva. Both incidence and mortality rates were much lower in Singapore. The period effect is a stronger predictor of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer than the birth-cohort effect.

Sea water Corrosion of Nickel based Plasma Spray Coating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parida, M.; Nanda, S. P.; Bhuyan, S. K.; Mishra, S. C.

2018-03-01

Different types of erosion resistant coatings are applied/deposited on aero components, depending on the operating/working temperatures. Nickel based coating are applied on the air craft (compressor) components, which can sustain up to working temperature of 650°C. In the present investigation, to improve the compatibility between substrate (i.e. the machine component) and the top coat, application of bond coat is there. The application of Nickel based coating by thermal plasma spray technique has proven to be a satisfactory means of producing acceptable sealing surface with excellent abradability. Before the corrosion study, coated sample is subjected to hardness, thickness and porosity testing. Hence the result is being evaluated. The corrosion behavior of coating was studied by sea water immersion with a time period of 16 weeks. It is observed that, up to 9 weeks increase in weight of coating occurs in a sharp trend and then takes a decreasing trend. The weight gain of the samples has varied from 37.23% (with one week immersion in sea water) to a maximum of about 64.36% for six weeks immersion. Coating morphology and composition analysis of the coatings are studied using SEM and EDS. This behavior shows adsorption/deposition of the foreign particles with polygonal shape on the coating surface by sea water interaction. Foreign particles with polygonal shape deposited on the coating and with increase in immersion/treatment time, washing out of the deposited materials starts, which reflects the decreasing trend of weight gain of the specimen.

Is surgical workforce diversity increasing?

PubMed

Andriole, Dorothy A; Jeffe, Donna B; Schechtman, Kenneth B

2007-03-01

We sought to determine the extent to which recent increases in levels of gender and racial diversity in the overall resident-physician workforce were evident among core-surgical specialty resident workforces. Chi-square tests for trend assessed the importance of changes from 1996 to 2004 in proportions of women and African Americans in the surgery-resident workforce. Surgery-resident trends were compared with overall resident workforce trends using two-tailed t-tests to compare regression slopes that quantified rates of change over time. Chi-square tests assessed differences between proportions of women and African Americans in the current overall board-certified workforce and their proportions in the surgery board-certified workforce. From 1996 to 2004, proportions of women increased in all seven surgical specialties studied. Compared with the overall trend toward increasing proportions of women in the resident workforce, the trend in one surgical specialty was larger (obstetrics/gynecology, p < 0.01), four were similar (each p > 0.05), and two were smaller (each p < 0.001). Proportions of African Americans increased in four specialties. Compared with the overall trend, trends in two specialties were larger (obstetrics/gynecology and neurologic surgery, each p < 0.01) and two were similar (each p > 0.05). Proportions of African Americans decreased in three specialties (each p < 0.01). Proportions of women and African Americans in every board-certified specialty workforce, except obstetrics/gynecology, remained lower than in the overall board-certified workforce (each p < 0.01). Many demographic disparities between the surgery-resident and overall-resident workforces have persisted since 1996 and will likely perpetuate ongoing surgery board-certified workforce disparities.

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2016-04-01

Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe using the longest streamflow records, Journal of Hydrology, 528, 341-360, 2015. Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

Review and analysis of the DNW/Model 360 rotor acoustic data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zinner, R. A.; Boxwell, D. A.; Spencer, R. H.

1989-01-01

A comprehensive model rotor aeroacoustic data base was collected in a large anechoic wind tunnel in 1986. Twenty-six microphones were positioned around the azimuth to collect acoustic data for approximately 150 different test conditions. A dynamically scaled, blade-pressure-instrumented model of the forward rotor of the BH360 helicopter simultaneously provided blade pressures for correlation with the acoustic data. High-speed impulsive noise, blade-vortex interaction noise, low-frequency noise, and broadband noise were all captured in this extensive data base. Trends are presentes for each noise source, with important parametric variations. The purpose of this paper is to introduce this data base and illustrate its potential for predictive code validation.

Consistency of SAT® I: Reasoning Test Score Conversions. Research Report. ETS RR-08-67

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haberman, Shelby J.; Guo, Hongwen; Liu, Jinghua; Dorans, Neil J.

2008-01-01

This study uses historical data to explore the consistency of SAT® I: Reasoning Test score conversions and to examine trends in scaled score means. During the period from April 1995 to December 2003, both Verbal (V) and Math (M) means display substantial seasonality, and a slight increasing trend for both is observed. SAT Math means increase more…

Something That Test Scores Do Not Show: Engaging in Community Diversity as a Local Response to Global Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valdiviezo, Laura A.

2014-01-01

At Smith Street Elementary School, the globalizing education trends that English language learner (ELL) teachers face focus on measuring student achievement through testing and the English mainstreaming of non-dominant students as opposed to the cultivation of the students' linguistic and cultural diversity. The ELL teachers at Smith Street…

Dry spell, onset and cessation of the wet season rainfall in the Upper Baro-Akobo Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Asfaw; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Edossa, Desalegn C.

2017-08-01

In this study, maximum dry spell length and number of dry spell periods of rainy seasons in the upper Baro-Akobo River basin which is a part of the Nile basin, Western Ethiopia, were investigated to analyse the drought trend. Daily rainfall records of the period 1972-2000 from eight rain gauge stations were used in the analysis, and Mann-Kendall test was used to test trends for significance. Furthermore, the beginning and end of the trend development in the dry spell were also tested using the sequential version of Mann-Kendall test. Results have shown that there is neither clear monotonic trend found in dry spell for the basin nor significant fluctuation in the onset, cession and duration of rainfall in the Baro-Akobo river basin. This sufficiently explains why rain-fed agriculture has suffered little in the western part of Ethiopia. The predictable nature of dry spell pattern may have allowed farmers to adjust to rainfall variability in the basin. Unlike many parts of Ethiopia, the Baro-Akobo basin climate variability is not a limiting factor for rain-fed agriculture productivity which may contribute significantly to national food security.

Multi-Scale Analysis of Trends in Northeastern Temperate Forest Springtime Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, M.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

The timing of spring leaf emergence is highly variable in many ecosystems, exerts first-order control growing season length, and significantly modulates seasonally-integrated photosynthesis. Numerous studies have reported trends toward earlier spring phenology in temperate forests, with some papers indicating that this trend is also leading to increased carbon uptake. At broad spatial scales, however, most of these studies have used data from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS, which does not resolve ecologically important landscape-scale patterns in phenology. In this work, we examine how long-term trends in spring phenology differ across three data sources acquired at different scales of measurements at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. Specifically, we compared trends in the timing of phenology based on long-term in-situ measurements of phenology, estimates based on eddy-covariance measurements of net carbon uptake transition dates, and from two sources of satellite-based remote sensing (MODIS and Landsat) land surface phenology (LSP) data. Our analysis focused on the flux footprint surrounding the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements (EMS) tower. Our results reveal clearly defined trends toward earlier springtime phenology in Landsat LSP and in the timing of tower-based net carbon uptake. However, we find no statistically significant trend in springtime phenology measured from MODIS LSP data products, possibly because the time series of MODIS observations is relatively short (13 years). The trend in tower-based transition data exhibited a larger negative value than the trend derived from Landsat LSP data (-0.42 and -0.28 days per year for 21 and 28 years, respectively). More importantly, these results have two key implications regarding how changes in spring phenology are impacting carbon uptake at landscape-scale. First, long-term trends in spring phenology can be quite different, depending on what data source is used to estimate the trend, and 2) the response of carbon uptake to climate change may be more sensitive than the response of land surface phenology itself.

Trends in Motor Performance of First Graders: A Comparison of Cohorts from 2006 to 2015.

PubMed

Spengler, Sarah; Rabel, Matthias; Kuritz, Arvid Marius; Mess, Filip

2017-01-01

Motor performance is an important factor for health. Already in childhood, motor performance is associated with, e.g., obesity and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. It is widely believed that the motor performance of children has declined over recent years. However, this belief is lacking clear evidence. The objective of this study was to examine trends in motor performance of first grade students during a period of 10 years (2006-2015). We examined trends in (a) aerobic fitness, (b) strength, (c) speed, and (d) balance for boys and girls separately and considered body mass index (BMI) as a potential confounder. From 2006 to 2015, we tested 5,001 first graders [50.8% boys; mean age 6.76 (0.56) years] of 18 primary schools in Germany. Each year between 441 and 552 students of the same schools were surveyed. Performance tests were taken from the Motorik-Module Study and the "German Motor Ability Test": "6-min run," "push-ups," "20-m sprint," and "static stand." Linear regression models were conducted for statistical analysis. A slightly negative trend in aerobic fitness performance was revealed in boys (β = -0.050; p  = 0.012) but not in girls. In the strength performance test no trend over time was detected. Performance in speed (boys: β = -0.094; girls: β = -0.143; p  ≤ 0.001) and balance tests (boys: β = -0.142; girls: β = -0.232; p  ≤ 0.001) increased over time for both boys and girls. These findings held true when BMI was considered. This study only partly supported the assumption that motor performance of children has declined: in our study, aerobic fitness declined (only in boys), while strength remained stable and speed and balance even increased in both sexes. Moreover, it seems as if BMI can explain changes in performance only to a small extent. Changed lifestyles might be a substantial cause. Further research on recent trends of motor performance and interacting variables is needed to support the results of our study and to provide more knowledge on causes of these trends.

Socio-Economic Status and Prevalence of Self-Reported Osteoporosis in Tehran: Results from a Large Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study (Urban HEART-2).

PubMed

Asadi-Lari, M; Salimi, Y; Vaez-Mahdavi, M R; Faghihzadeh, S; Haeri Mehrizi, A A; Jorjoran Shushtari, Z; Cheraghian, Bahman

2018-04-10

Osteoporosis is a widespread disease among older peoples. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis and assessing its association with socio-economic status. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Tehran, Iran in 2011. Participants were 45,990 individuals aged above 20 years from 22 urban districts. Osteoporosis was measured by self-administrative questionnaire. Wealth index was constructed using principal component analysis based on household assets. Chi-square test, chi square test for trend, and crude odds ratio were used to assess associations in univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression utilized to estimate adjusted associations between self-reported osteoporosis and socio-economic status.The overall estimated prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis was 4% (95% CI 3.88-4.13), 1.19% in men, and 6.84% in women (P < 0.001). The prevalence increased considerably as age increased (P for trend < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, education and wealth status were negative, and smoking was positively associated with the prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis. No association was found between participants' skill levels and Townsend deprivation index with the prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis.The findings of the present study have improved understanding of the association between socioeconomic status and osteoporosis in the Iranian population. It is important to consider socioeconomic status in screening and prevention programs.

Correlation between polymerization shrinkage stress and C-factor depends upon cavity compliance.

PubMed

Wang, Zhengzhi; Chiang, Martin Y M

2016-03-01

The literature reports inconsistent results regarding using configuration factor (C-factor) as an indicator to reflect the generation of polymerization shrinkage stress (PS) from dental restorative composites due to the constraint of cavity configuration. The current study aimed at unraveling the complex effects of C-factor on PS based on analytical and experimental approaches together, such that the reported inconsistency can be explained and a significance of C-factor in clinic can be comprehensively provided. Analytical models based on linear elasticity were established to predict PS measured in instruments (testing systems) with different compliances, and complex effects of C-factor on PS were derived. The analyses were validated by experiments using a cantilever beam-based instrument and systematic variation of instrumental compliance. For a general trend, PS decreased with increasing C-factor when measured by instruments with high compliance. However, this trend gradually diminished and eventually reversed (PS became increased with increasing C-factor) by decreasing the system compliance. Our study indicates that the correlation between PS and C-factor are highly dependent on the compliance of testing instrument for PS measurement. This suggests that the current concept on the role of C-factor in the stress development and transmission to tooth structures, higher C-factor produces higher PS due to reduced flow capacity of more confined materials, can be misleading. Thus, the compliance of the prepared tooth (cavity) structure should also be considered in the effect of C-factor on PS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Adapting anatomy teaching to surgical trends: a combination of classical dissection, medical imaging, and 3D-printing technologies.

PubMed

Fasel, Jean H D; Aguiar, Diego; Kiss-Bodolay, Daniel; Montet, Xavier; Kalangos, Afksendiyos; Stimec, Bojan V; Ratib, Osman

2016-04-01

Many regions worldwide report difficulties in recruiting applicants to surgery. One strategy proposed to reverse this trend consists of early exposure of medical students to the field. Against this backdrop, the present study presents an innovative approach for anatomy teaching, integrating a surgically relevant trend: 3D printing. Whole-body computed tomography (CT) was made of two cadavers. Twelve students performed measurements and 3D reconstructions of selected anatomical structures (Osirix, Mimics). 3D printed (3DP) models were obtained (ZPrinter 310 Plus), and the students completed the analogous measurements on these replicas. Finally, classical anatomical dissection was performed and the same parameters were measured. The differences between the values obtained by the three modalities were submitted to standard statistical analysis (Wilcoxon two-tail paired test). Qualitative comparison of the digital 3D reconstructions based on the students' manual CT segmentation and the anatomical reality showed excellent correlation. Quantitatively, the values measured on the CT images and the physical models created by 3D printing differed from those measured on the cadavers by less than 2 mm. Students were highly appreciative of the approach (CT, 3DP, cadaver). Their average satisfaction score was 5.8 on a 1-6 scale. This study shows that the approach proposed can be achieved. The results obtained also show that CT-based 3D printed models are close to the authentic anatomic reality. The program allows early and interactive exposure of medical students to a surgically relevant trend-in this case 3D printing.

Shifts of Start and End of Season in Response to Air Temperature Variation Based on Gimms Dataset in Hyrcanian Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiapasha, K. H.; Darvishsefat, A. A.; Zargham, N.; Julien, Y.; Sobrino, J. A.; Nadi, M.

2017-09-01

Climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges in the world and forest as a dynamic phenomenon is influenced by environmental changes. The Hyrcanian forests is a unique natural heritage of global importance and we need monitoring this region. The objective of this study was to detect start and end of season trends in Hyrcanian forests of Iran based on biweekly GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI3g in the period 1981-2012. In order to find response of vegetation activity to local temperature variations, we used air temperature provided from I.R. Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). At the first step in order to remove the existing gap from the original time series, the iterative Interpolation for Data Reconstruction (IDR) model was applied to GIMMS and temperature dataset. Then we applied significant Mann Kendall test to determine significant trend for each pixel of GIMMS and temperature datasets over the Hyrcanian forests. The results demonstrated that start and end of season (SOS & EOS respectively) derived from GIMMS3g NDVI time series increased by -0.16 and +0.41 days per year respectively. The trends derived from temperature time series indicated increasing trend in the whole of this region. Results of this study showed that global warming and its effect on growth and photosynthetic activity can increased the vegetation activity in our study area. Otherwise extension of the growing season, including an earlier start of the growing season, later autumn and higher rate of production increased NDVI value during the study period.

The impact of computer-based versus "traditional" textbook science instruction on selected student learning outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothman, Alan H.

This study reports the results of research designed to examine the impact of computer-based science instruction on elementary school level students' science content achievement, their attitude about science learning, their level of critical thinking-inquiry skills, and their level of cognitive and English language development. The study compared these learning outcomes resulting from a computer-based approach compared to the learning outcomes from a traditional, textbook-based approach to science instruction. The computer-based approach was inherent in a curriculum titled The Voyage of the Mimi , published by The Bank Street College Project in Science and Mathematics (1984). The study sample included 209 fifth-grade students enrolled in three schools in a suburban school district. This sample was divided into three groups, each receiving one of the following instructional treatments: (a) Mixed-instruction primarily based on the use of a hardcopy textbook in conjunction with computer-based instructional materials as one component of the science course; (b) Non-Traditional, Technology-Based -instruction fully utilizing computer-based material; and (c) Traditional, Textbook-Based-instruction utilizing only the textbook as the basis for instruction. Pre-test, or pre-treatment, data related to each of the student learning outcomes was collected at the beginning of the school year and post-test data was collected at the end of the school year. Statistical analyses of pre-test data were used as a covariate to account for possible pre-existing differences with regard to the variables examined among the three student groups. This study concluded that non-traditional, computer-based instruction in science significantly improved students' attitudes toward science learning and their level of English language development. Non-significant, positive trends were found for the following student learning outcomes: overall science achievement and development of critical thinking-inquiry skills. These conclusions support the value of a non-traditional, computer-based approach to instruction, such as exemplified by The Voyage of the Mimi curriculum, and a recommendation for reform in science teaching that has recommended the use of computer technology to enhance learning outcomes from science instruction to assist in reversing the trend toward what has been perceived to be relatively poor science performance by American students, as documented by the 1996 Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS).

Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2015-04-01

Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

Comparison of Salmonella enteritidis phage types isolated from layers and humans in Belgium in 2005.

PubMed

Welby, Sarah; Imberechts, Hein; Riocreux, Flavien; Bertrand, Sophie; Dierick, Katelijne; Wildemauwe, Christa; Hooyberghs, Jozef; Van der Stede, Yves

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the available results for Belgium of the European Union coordinated monitoring program (2004/665 EC) on Salmonella in layers in 2005, as well as the results of the monthly outbreak reports of Salmonella Enteritidis in humans in 2005 to identify a possible statistical significant trend in both populations. Separate descriptive statistics and univariate analysis were carried out and the parametric and/or non-parametric hypothesis tests were conducted. A time cluster analysis was performed for all Salmonella Enteritidis phage types (PTs) isolated. The proportions of each Salmonella Enteritidis PT in layers and in humans were compared and the monthly distribution of the most common PT, isolated in both populations, was evaluated. The time cluster analysis revealed significant clusters during the months May and June for layers and May, July, August, and September for humans. PT21, the most frequently isolated PT in both populations in 2005, seemed to be responsible of these significant clusters. PT4 was the second most frequently isolated PT. No significant difference was found for the monthly trend evolution of both PT in both populations based on parametric and non-parametric methods. A similar monthly trend of PT distribution in humans and layers during the year 2005 was observed. The time cluster analysis and the statistical significance testing confirmed these results. Moreover, the time cluster analysis showed significant clusters during the summer time and slightly delayed in time (humans after layers). These results suggest a common link between the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis in layers and the occurrence of the pathogen in humans. Phage typing was confirmed to be a useful tool for identifying temporal trends.

A Meta-Analysis and an Evaluation of Trends in Obesity Prevalence among Children and Adolescents in Turkey: 1990 through 2015

PubMed Central

Alper, Züleyha; Ercan, İlker; Uncu, Yeşim

2018-01-01

Objective Obesity in childhood and adolescence is one of the most serious public health problems due to a remarkable increase in prevalence in recent years and its close relationship with non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension, resulting in increased adult morbidity and mortality. This study aims to quantify the secular trend in different regions of Turkey from 1990 to 2015 by performing a meta-analysis of childhood and adolescent obesity prevalence studies conducted. Methods Uludag University Library Database was searched for relevant articles published prior to March 2017. The heterogeneity of the studies in the meta-analysis was tested by the I2 statistic and Cochran’s Q test. The obesity trend analyses were examined by chi-square trend analysis with respect to five year periods. The statistical significance level was taken as α=0.05. Results A total of 76 papers were initially identified addressing childhood and adolescent obesity in Turkey. Fifty-eight papers were selected for analysis. The prevalence of obesity increased from 0.6% to 7.3% with an 11.6-fold increase between the periods 1990-1995 to 2011-2015. The prevalence of obesity increased in both genders. However, boys were more likely to be obese than girls. Conclusion Studies on obesity prevalence in the 5-19 age group in Turkey have gained importance, especially in the 2000s. While a remarkable number of prevalence studies, mostly regional, have been conducted between 2005-2011, a gradual decline was observed thereafter. Further national and population-based surveys on prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents are definitely needed in Turkey. PMID:28901943

A Meta-Analysis and an Evaluation of Trends in Obesity Prevalence among Children and Adolescents in Turkey: 1990 through 2015.

PubMed

Alper, Züleyha; Ercan, İlker; Uncu, Yeşim

2018-03-01

Obesity in childhood and adolescence is one of the most serious public health problems due to a remarkable increase in prevalence in recent years and its close relationship with non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension, resulting in increased adult morbidity and mortality. This study aims to quantify the secular trend in different regions of Turkey from 1990 to 2015 by performing a meta-analysis of childhood and adolescent obesity prevalence studies conducted. Uludag University Library Database was searched for relevant articles published prior to March 2017. The heterogeneity of the studies in the meta-analysis was tested by the I2 statistic and Cochran's Q test. The obesity trend analyses were examined by chi-square trend analysis with respect to five year periods. The statistical significance level was taken as α=0.05. A total of 76 papers were initially identified addressing childhood and adolescent obesity in Turkey. Fifty-eight papers were selected for analysis. The prevalence of obesity increased from 0.6% to 7.3% with an 11.6-fold increase between the periods 1990-1995 to 2011-2015. The prevalence of obesity increased in both genders. However, boys were more likely to be obese than girls. Studies on obesity prevalence in the 5-19 age group in Turkey have gained importance, especially in the 2000s. While a remarkable number of prevalence studies, mostly regional, have been conducted between 2005-2011, a gradual decline was observed thereafter. Further national and population-based surveys on prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents are definitely needed in Turkey.

National trends in pancreaticoduodenal trauma: interventions and outcomes.

PubMed

Ragulin-Coyne, Elizaveta; Witkowski, Elan R; Chau, Zeling; Wemple, Daniel; Ng, Sing Chau; Santry, Heena P; Shah, Shimul A; Tseng, Jennifer F

2014-03-01

Pancreaticoduodenal trauma (PDT) is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. In this study, contemporary trends were analysed using national data. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for 1998-2009 was queried for patients with PDT. Interventions including any operation (Any-Op) and pancreas-specific surgery (PSURG) were identified. Trends in treatment and outcomes were determined [complications, length of stay (LoS), mortality] for the Any-Op, PSURG and non-operative (Non-Op) groups. Analyses included chi-squared tests, Cochran-Armitage trend tests and logistic regression. A total of 27 216 patients (nationally weighted) with PDT were identified. Over time, the frequency of PDT increased by 8.3%, whereas the proportion of patients submitted to PSURG declined (from 21.7% to 19.8%; P = 0.0004) and the percentage of patients submitted to non-operative management increased (from 56.7% to 59.1%; P = 0.01). In the Non-Op group, mortality decreased from 9.7% to 8.6% (P < 0.001); morbidity and LoS remained unchanged at ∼40% and ∼12 days, respectively. In the PSURG group, mortality remained stable at ∼15%, complications increased from 50.2% to 71.8% (P < 0.0001) and LoS remained stable at ∼21 days. For all PDT patients, significant independent predictors of mortality included: the presence of combined pancreatic and duodenal injuries; penetrating trauma, and age >50 years. Having any operation (Any-Op) was associated with mortality, but PSURG was not a predictor of death. The utilization of operations for PDT has declined without affecting mortality, but operative morbidity increased significantly over the 12 years to 2009. The development of an evidence-based approach to invasive manoeuvres and an early multidisciplinary approach involving pancreatic surgeons may improve outcomes in patients with these morbid injuries. © 2013 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

National trends in pancreaticoduodenal trauma: interventions and outcomes

PubMed Central

Ragulin-Coyne, Elizaveta; Witkowski, Elan R; Chau, Zeling; Wemple, Daniel; Ng, Sing Chau; Santry, Heena P; Shah, Shimul A; Tseng, Jennifer F

2014-01-01

Objectives:Pancreaticoduodenal trauma (PDT) is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. In this study, contemporary trends were analysed using national data. Methods:The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for 1998–2009 was queried for patients with PDT. Interventions including any operation (Any-Op) and pancreas-specific surgery (PSURG) were identified. Trends in treatment and outcomes were determined [complications, length of stay (LoS), mortality] for the Any-Op, PSURG and non-operative (Non-Op) groups. Analyses included chi-squared tests, Cochran–Armitage trend tests and logistic regression. Results:A total of 27 216 patients (nationally weighted) with PDT were identified. Over time, the frequency of PDT increased by 8.3%, whereas the proportion of patients submitted to PSURG declined (from 21.7% to 19.8%; P = 0.0004) and the percentage of patients submitted to non-operative management increased (from 56.7% to 59.1%; P = 0.01). In the Non-Op group, mortality decreased from 9.7% to 8.6% (P < 0.001); morbidity and LoS remained unchanged at ∼40% and ∼12 days, respectively. In the PSURG group, mortality remained stable at ∼15%, complications increased from 50.2% to 71.8% (P < 0.0001) and LoS remained stable at ∼21 days. For all PDT patients, significant independent predictors of mortality included: the presence of combined pancreatic and duodenal injuries; penetrating trauma, and age >50 years. Having any operation (Any-Op) was associated with mortality, but PSURG was not a predictor of death. Conclusions:The utilization of operations for PDT has declined without affecting mortality, but operative morbidity increased significantly over the 12 years to 2009. The development of an evidence-based approach to invasive manoeuvres and an early multidisciplinary approach involving pancreatic surgeons may improve outcomes in patients with these morbid injuries. PMID:23869407

Impact of fecal immunochemical test-based screening programs on proximal and distal colorectal cancer surgery rates: A natural multiple-baseline experiment.

PubMed

Fedeli, Ugo; Zorzi, Manuel; Urso, Emanuele D L; Gennaro, Nicola; Dei Tos, Angelo P; Saugo, Mario

2015-11-15

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs based on the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) were found to reduce overall CRC surgery rates, but to the authors' knowledge data by subsite are lacking. The objective of the current study was to assess the impact of FIT-based screening on proximal and distal CRC surgical resection rates. The Veneto region in Italy can be subdivided into 3 areas with staggered introduction of FIT-based screening programs: early (2002-2004), intermediate (2005-2007), and late (2008-2009) areas. Time series of proximal and distal CRC surgery were investigated in the 3 populations between 2001 and 2012 by Joinpoint regression analysis and segmented Poisson regression models. The impact of screening was similar in the study populations. Rates of distal CRC surgical resection were stable before screening, increased at the time of screening implementation (rate ratio [RR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.14-1.37), and thereafter declined by 10% annually (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.88-0.92). Rates of proximal CRC surgical resection increased by 4% annually before screening (RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05) but, after a peak at the time of screening initiation, the trend was reversed. The percentage represented by proximal CRC surgery rose from 28% in 2001 to 41% in 2012. In this natural multiple-baseline experiment, consistent findings across each time series demonstrated that FIT-based screening programs have an impact both on proximal and distal CRC surgery rates. However, underlying preexisting epidemiological trends are leading to a rapidly increasing percentage of proximal CRC. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

SU-E-T-103: Development and Implementation of Web Based Quality Control Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Studinski, R; Taylor, R; Angers, C

Purpose: Historically many radiation medicine programs have maintained their Quality Control (QC) test results in paper records or Microsoft Excel worksheets. Both these approaches represent significant logistical challenges, and are not predisposed to data review and approval. It has been our group's aim to develop and implement web based software designed not just to record and store QC data in a centralized database, but to provide scheduling and data review tools to help manage a radiation therapy clinics Equipment Quality control program. Methods: The software was written in the Python programming language using the Django web framework. In order tomore » promote collaboration and validation from other centres the code was made open source and is freely available to the public via an online source code repository. The code was written to provide a common user interface for data entry, formalize the review and approval process, and offer automated data trending and process control analysis of test results. Results: As of February 2014, our installation of QAtrack+ has 180 tests defined in its database and has collected ∼22 000 test results, all of which have been reviewed and approved by a physicist via QATrack+'s review tools. These results include records for quality control of Elekta accelerators, CT simulators, our brachytherapy programme, TomoTherapy and Cyberknife units. Currently at least 5 other centres are known to be running QAtrack+ clinically, forming the start of an international user community. Conclusion: QAtrack+ has proven to be an effective tool for collecting radiation therapy QC data, allowing for rapid review and trending of data for a wide variety of treatment units. As free and open source software, all source code, documentation and a bug tracker are available to the public at https://bitbucket.org/tohccmedphys/qatrackplus/.« less

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? Utah

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles Utah's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2004, the mean scale score on the state 4th grade reading test was 167 for non-Title I students and 164 for Title I students. In 2009 the mean scale score in 4th grade reading was 168 for non-Title I students and 164 for Title I students. Between 2004 and 2009, the mean scale score…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? Colorado

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles Colorado's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2003, the mean scale score on the state 4th grade reading test was 598 for non-Title I students and 558 for Title I students. In 2009, the mean scale score in 4th grade reading was 599 for non-Title I students and 556 for Title I students. Between 2003 and 2009, the mean scale…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? North Carolina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles North Carolina's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2006, the mean scale score on the state 4th grade math test was 351 for non-Title I students and 347 for Title I students. In 2009, the mean scale score in 4th grade math was 354 for non-Title I students and 350 for Title I students. Between 2006 and 2009, the mean scale…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? Maryland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles Maryland's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2004, 82% of non-Title I 4th graders and 61% of Title I 4th graders scored at the proficient level on the state reading test. In 2009, 90% of non-Title I 4th graders and 78% of Title I 4th graders scored at the proficient level in reading. Between 2004 and 2009, the percentage…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? Delaware

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles Delaware's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2006, the mean scale score on the state 4th grade reading test was 474 for non-Title I students and 464 for Title I students. In 2009, the mean scale score in 4th grade reading was 478 for non-Title I students and 467 for Title I students. Between 2006 and 2009, the mean scale…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? Massachusetts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles Massachusetts's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2006, 59% of non-Title I 4th graders and 29% of Title I 4th graders scored at the proficient level on the state reading test. In 2009, 64% of non-Title I 4th graders and 31% of Title I 4th graders scored at the proficient level in reading. Between 2006 and 2009, the…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? New Hampshire

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles New Hampshire's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2006, the mean scale score on the state 4th grade reading test was 445 for non-Title I students and 438 for Title I students. In 2009, the mean scale score in 4th grade reading was 448 for non-Title I students and 441 for Title I students. Between 2006 and 2009, the mean…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? Missouri

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles Missouri's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2006, the mean scale score on the state 4th grade reading test was 661 for non-Title I students and 642 for Title I students. In 2009, the mean scale score in 4th grade reading was 661 for non-Title I students and 648 for Title I students. Between 2006 and 2009, there was no…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 4: Is Achievement Improving and Are Gaps Narrowing for Title I Students? Kentucky

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2011

2011-01-01

This paper profiles Kentucky's test score trends through 2008-09. In 2007, the mean scale score on the state 4th grade reading test was 455 for non-Title I students and 451 for Title I students. In 2009, the mean scale score in 4th grade reading was 455 for non-Title I students and 451 for Title I students. Between 2007 and 2009, the mean scale…

Access to laboratory testing: the impact of managed care in the Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

LaBeau, K M; Simon, M; Steindel, S J

1999-01-01

Patient access to health-care services has become an important issue owing to the growth of managed care organizations and the number of patients enrolled. To better understand the current issues related to access to laboratory testing, with a particular focus on the impact of managed care, we gathered information from a network of clinical laboratories in the Pacific Northwest. Two questionnaires were sent to the 257 Laboratory Medicine Sentinel Monitoring Network participants in November 1995 and March 1996 to investigate trends in the availability and utilization of laboratory testing services and changes in onsite testing menus. Although laboratories reported that managed care was a factor in their decisions about laboratory practices, testing decisions were more likely made for business reasons, based on medical practice changes and marketplace influences not associated with managed care.

Lightweight design and analysis of automobile wheel based on bending and radial loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lyu, R.; Fukushima, Y.; Otake, M.; Ju, D. Y.

2018-06-01

Lightweighting of automobile vehicle is a significant application trends, using magnesium alloy wheels is a valuable way. This article discusses design of a new model of automobile wheel. Then bending test and radial test finite element model were established. Considering three different materials namely magnesium alloy, aluminium alloy and steel, the stress and strain performances of each material can be obtained. Through evaluating and analyzing model in bending test and radial test, we obtained the reasonable and superior results for magnesium alloy wheel. The results of the equivalent stress and deformation were compared, the magnesium alloy wheel practicality has been confirmed. This research predicts the reliability of the structural design, some valuable references are provided for the design and development of magnesium alloy wheel.

Hardness and compression resistance of natural rubber and synthetic rubber mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arguello, J. M.; Santos, A.

2016-02-01

This project aims to mechanically characterize through compression resistance and shore hardness tests, the mixture of hevea brasiliensis natural rubber with butadiene synthetic rubber (BR), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and ethylene-propylene-diene monomer rubber (EPDM). For each of the studied mixtures were performed 10 tests, each of which increased by 10% the content of synthetic rubber in the mixture; each test consisted of carrying out five tests of compression resistance and five tests of shore hardness. The specimens were vulcanized on a temperature of 160°C, during an approximate time of 15 minutes, and the equipment used in the performance of the mechanical tests were a Shimadzu universal machine and a digital durometer. The results show that the A shore hardness increases directly proportional, with a linear trend, with the content of synthetic BR, SBR or EPDM rubber present in the mixture, being the EPDM the most influential. With respect to the compression resistance is observed that the content of BR or SBR increase this property directly proportional through a linear trend; while the EPDM content also increases but with a polynomial trend.

HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence.

PubMed

Hall, H Irene; Song, Ruiguang; Tang, Tian; An, Qian; Prejean, Joseph; Dietz, Patricia; Hernandez, Angela L; Green, Timothy; Harris, Norma; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan

2017-02-03

The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends. The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods. Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM). On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (P<.001). Adjusting for reporting delays, diagnoses decreased 3.1% per year (P<.001). The CD4 model estimated an annual decrease in incidence of 4.6% (P<.001) and the Bayesian hierarchical model 2.6% (P<.001); the stratified extrapolation approach estimated a stable incidence. During these years, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM. HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all race or ethnicity groups. Further progress depends on effectively reducing HIV incidence among MSM, among whom the majority of new infections occur. ©H Irene Hall, Ruiguang Song, Tian Tang, Qian An, Joseph Prejean, Patricia Dietz, Angela L Hernandez, Timothy Green, Norma Harris, Eugene McCray, Jonathan Mermin. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 03.02.2017.

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Analysis of Zenith Tropospheric Delay above Europe based on long time series derived from the EPN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina; Kroszczynski, Krzysztof; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej

2015-04-01

In recent years, the GNSS system began to play an increasingly important role in the research related to the climate monitoring. Based on the GPS system, which has the longest operational capability in comparison with other systems, and a common computational strategy applied to all observations, long and homogeneous ZTD (Zenith Tropospheric Delay) time series were derived. This paper presents results of analysis of 16-year ZTD time series obtained from the EPN (EUREF Permanent Network) reprocessing performed by the Military University of Technology. To maintain the uniformity of data, analyzed period of time (1998-2013) is exactly the same for all stations - observations carried out before 1998 were removed from time series and observations processed using different strategy were recalculated according to the MUT LAC approach. For all 16-year time series (59 stations) Lomb-Scargle periodograms were created to obtain information about the oscillations in ZTD time series. Due to strong annual oscillations which disturb the character of oscillations with smaller amplitude and thus hinder their investigation, Lomb-Scargle periodograms for time series with the deleted annual oscillations were created in order to verify presence of semi-annual, ter-annual and quarto-annual oscillations. Linear trend and seasonal components were estimated using LSE (Least Square Estimation) and Mann-Kendall trend test were used to confirm the presence of linear trend designated by LSE method. In order to verify the effect of the length of time series on the estimated size of the linear trend, comparison between two different length of ZTD time series was performed. To carry out a comparative analysis, 30 stations which have been operating since 1996 were selected. For these stations two periods of time were analyzed: shortened 16-year (1998-2013) and full 18-year (1996-2013). For some stations an additional two years of observations have significant impact on changing the size of linear trend - only for 4 stations the size of linear trend was exactly the same for two periods of time. In one case, the nature of the trend has changed from negative (16-year time series) for positive (18-year time series). The average value of a linear trends for 16-year time series is 1,5 mm/decade, but their spatial distribution is not uniform. The average value of linear trends for all 18-year time series is 2,0 mm/decade, with better spatial distribution and smaller discrepancies.

[Increase in orders for specific IgE tests and more positive results in children in 1985-2003].

PubMed

Baatenburg de Jong, A; Dikkeschei, L D; Brand, P L P

2008-08-09

To describe changes over time in the number of allergy tests for specific IgE ordered and outcomes in children, to help address the question whether the increase in allergies is due to an actual increase in sensitisation or an increase in diagnostic awareness of allergies among physicians. Retrospective and descriptive. We reviewed the results of all specific IgE tests performed in our hospital's laboratory for children 0-18 years of age in the period 1985-2003. This included tests ordered by both general practitioners and hospital-based specialists. We analysed trends over time in the number of tests ordered (as an indicator ofdiagnostic awareness) and test results (as an indicator ofsensitisation). Between 1989 and 1995, the annual number of tests ordered increased from 1 per 10,000 children to 95 per 10,000 children and remained stable thereafter. Before 1990, more than 90% of tests were ordered by hospital-based specialists; after 1990, approximately 70% of the tests were ordered by general practitioners (p < 0.001). The proportion of positive tests remained stable at approximately 27% until 1991, after which it increased to more than 45% (p < 0.001). The increase in the proportion of positive tests suggests an increase in atopic sensitization between 1985 and 2000 which has stabilized since.

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

Crack propagation monitoring in a full-scale aircraft fatigue test based on guided wave-Gaussian mixture model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Bao, Qiao; Mei, Hanfei; Ren, Yuanqiang

2016-05-01

For aerospace application of structural health monitoring (SHM) technology, the problem of reliable damage monitoring under time-varying conditions must be addressed and the SHM technology has to be fully validated on real aircraft structures under realistic load conditions on ground before it can reach the status of flight test. In this paper, the guided wave (GW) based SHM method is applied to a full-scale aircraft fatigue test which is one of the most similar test status to the flight test. To deal with the time-varying problem, a GW-Gaussian mixture model (GW-GMM) is proposed. The probability characteristic of GW features, which is introduced by time-varying conditions is modeled by GW-GMM. The weak cumulative variation trend of the crack propagation, which is mixed in time-varying influence can be tracked by the GW-GMM migration during on-line damage monitoring process. A best match based Kullback-Leibler divergence is proposed to measure the GW-GMM migration degree to reveal the crack propagation. The method is validated in the full-scale aircraft fatigue test. The validation results indicate that the reliable crack propagation monitoring of the left landing gear spar and the right wing panel under realistic load conditions are achieved.

OSPAR standard method and software for statistical analysis of beach litter data.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; van Loon, Willem; Fleet, David M; Baggelaar, Paul; van der Meulen, Eit

2017-09-15

The aim of this study is to develop standard statistical methods and software for the analysis of beach litter data. The optimal ensemble of statistical methods comprises the Mann-Kendall trend test, the Theil-Sen slope estimation, the Wilcoxon step trend test and basic descriptive statistics. The application of Litter Analyst, a tailor-made software for analysing the results of beach litter surveys, to OSPAR beach litter data from seven beaches bordering on the south-eastern North Sea, revealed 23 significant trends in the abundances of beach litter types for the period 2009-2014. Litter Analyst revealed a large variation in the abundance of litter types between beaches. To reduce the effects of spatial variation, trend analysis of beach litter data can most effectively be performed at the beach or national level. Spatial aggregation of beach litter data within a region is possible, but resulted in a considerable reduction in the number of significant trends. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

2018-05-01

Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

Water quality of the lower Columbia River basin; analysis of current and historical water-quality data through 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuhrer, Gregory J.; Tanner, Dwight Q.; Morace, Jennifer L.; McKenzie, Stuart W.; Skach, Kenneth A.

1996-01-01

Trend tests showed significant (r < 0.05) downward trends from 1973 to 1994 for three constituents at the Columbia River at Warrendale: phosphorus in unfiltered water, total dissolved solids, and specific conductance. These trends may be a consequence of more conservative agricultural practices in the area upstream from Warrendale.

Recommendations for the treatment of aging in standard technical specifications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orton, R.D.; Allen, R.P.

1995-09-01

As part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Nuclear Plant Aging Research Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) evaluated the standard technical specifications for nuclear power plants to determine whether the current surveillance requirements (SRs) were effective in detecting age-related degradation. Nuclear Plant Aging Research findings for selected systems and components were reviewed to identify the stressors and operative aging mechanisms and to evaluate the methods available to detect, differentiate, and trend the resulting aging degradation. Current surveillance and testing requirements for these systems and components were reviewed for their effectiveness in detecting degraded conditions and for potential contributions to prematuremore » degradation. When the current surveillance and testing requirements appeared ineffective in detecting aging degradation or potentially could contribute to premature degradation, a possible deficiency in the SRs was identified that could result in undetected degradation. Based on this evaluation, PNL developed recommendations for inspection, surveillance, trending, and condition monitoring methods to be incorporated in the SRs to better detect age- related degradation of these selected systems and components.« less

Application and Analysis of Measurement Model for Calibrating Spatial Shear Surface in Triaxial Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhihua; Qiu, Hongsheng; Zhang, Xiedong; Zhang, Hang

2017-12-01

Discrete element method has great advantages in simulating the contacts, fractures, large displacement and deformation between particles. In order to analyze the spatial distribution of the shear surface in the three-dimensional triaxial test, a measurement model is inserted in the numerical triaxial model which is generated by weighted average assembling method. Due to the non-visibility of internal shear surface in laboratory, it is largely insufficient to judge the trend of internal shear surface only based on the superficial cracks of sheared sample, therefore, the measurement model is introduced. The trend of the internal shear zone is analyzed according to the variations of porosity, coordination number and volumetric strain in each layer. It shows that as a case study on confining stress of 0.8 MPa, the spatial shear surface is calibrated with the results of the rotated particle distribution and the theoretical value with the specific characteristics of the increase of porosity, the decrease of coordination number, and the increase of volumetric strain, which represents the measurement model used in three-dimensional model is applicable.

High resolution pollutant measurements in complex urban ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Measuring air pollution in real-time using an instrumented vehicle platform has been an emerging strategy to resolve air pollution trends at a very fine spatial scale (10s of meters). Achieving second-by-second data representative of urban air quality trends requires advanced instrumentation, such as a quantum cascade laser utilized to resolve carbon monoxide and real-time optical detection of black carbon. An equally challenging area of development is processing and visualization of complex geospatial air monitoring data to decipher key trends of interest. EPA’s Office of Research and Development staff have applied air monitoring to evaluate community air quality in a variety of environments, including assessing air quality surrounding rail yards, evaluating noise wall or tree stand effects on roadside and on-road air quality, and surveying of traffic-related exposure zones for comparison with land-use regression estimates. ORD has ongoing efforts to improve mobile monitoring data collection and interpretation, including instrumentation testing, evaluating the effect of post-processing algorithms on derived trends, and developing a web-based tool called Real-Time Geospatial Data Viewer (RETIGO) allowing for a simple plug-and-play of mobile monitoring data. Example findings from mobile data sets include an estimated 50% in roadside ultrafine particle levels when immediately downwind of a noise barrier, increases in neighborhood-wide black carbon levels (3

Compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers: international trends during 25 Years.

PubMed

Israelsson, Magnus; Gerdner, Arne

2012-01-01

The study explores international trends in law on compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers (CCC), and two subtypes - civil CCC and CCC within criminal justice legislation - as well as maximum length and amount of applications of such care. The time period covers more than 25 years, and a total of 104 countries and territories. The study is based on available data in three times of observation (1986, 1999 and 2009). Applications of CCC in number of cases are studied on European level for the years 2002-2006. Trends are analyzed using nonparametric tests and general linear models for repeated measures. Findings are discussed from contextual analysis. There is a trend towards decrease in the number of countries worldwide having civil CCC legislation after the millennium, while CCC under criminal law has increased since the mid-1980s, resulting in some total net decrease. The shift results in longer mean duration of CCC and an increase in the number of cases sentenced. There is a risk that the shift from civil CCC to penal CCC implies more focus on young out-acting males in compulsory treatment and that the societal responsibility for more vulnerable persons might be neglected. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Tetherless ergonomics workstation to assess nurses' physical workload in a clinical setting.

PubMed

Smith, Warren D; Nave, Michael E; Hreljac, Alan P

2011-01-01

Nurses are at risk of physical injury when moving immobile patients. This paper describes the development and testing of a tetherless ergonomics workstation that is suitable for studying nurses' physical workload in a clinical setting. The workstation uses wearable sensors to record multiple channels of body orientation and muscle activity and wirelessly transmits them to a base station laptop computer for display, storage, and analysis. In preparation for use in a clinical setting, the workstation was tested in a laboratory equipped for multi-camera video motion analysis. The testing included a pilot study of the effect of bed height on student nurses' physical workload while they repositioned a volunteer posing as a bedridden patient toward the head of the bed. Each nurse subject chose a preferred bed height, and data were recorded, in randomized order, with the bed at this height, at 0.1 m below this height, and at 0.1 m above this height. The testing showed that the body orientation recordings made by the wearable sensors agreed closely with those obtained from the video motion analysis system. The pilot study showed the following trends: As the bed height was raised, the nurses' trunk flexion at both thoracic and lumbar sites and lumbar muscle effort decreased, whereas trapezius and deltoid muscle effort increased. These trends will be evaluated by further studies of practicing nurses in the clinical setting.

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It thus calls for prudence in devising appropriate intervention in the planning and sustainable development of the basin water resources.

Latest trends in parts SEP susceptibility from heavy ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, Donald K.; Smith, L. S.; Soli, George A.; Koga, R.; Kolasinski, W. A.

1989-01-01

JPL and Aerospace have collected a third set of heavy-ion single-event phenomena (SEP) test data since their last joint IEEE publications in December 1985 and December 1987. Trends in SEP susceptibility (e.g., soft errors and latchup) for state-of-the-art parts are presented. Results of the study indicate that hard technologies and unacceptably soft technologies can be flagged. In some instances, specific tested parts can be taken as candidates for key microprocessors or memories. As always with radiation test data, specific test data for qualified flight parts is recommended for critical applications.

Trends in Periprosthetic Hip Infection and Associated Costs: A Population-Based Study Assessing the Impact of Hospital Factors Using National Data.

PubMed

Brochin, Robert L; Phan, Kevin; Poeran, Jashvant; Zubizarreta, Nicole; Galatz, Leesa M; Moucha, Calin S

2018-07-01

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is an important cost driver in hip arthroplasty revisions, thus necessitating careful trend monitoring. Recent national trend data are lacking; we therefore assessed national PJI burden, trends in prevalence, and hospitalization costs. We extracted data on hip arthroplasty revisions from the National Inpatient Sample (2003-2013; n = 465,209). Trends in PJI prevalence and hospitalization costs were (1) assessed for the full cohort and (2) stratified by hospital teaching status, hospital bed size (≤299, 300-499, and ≥500 beds), and hospital region (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). The Cochran-Armitage trend test (PJI prevalence) and linear regression (hospitalization costs) determined significance of trends. Trends were adjusted for patient's age, gender, insurance type, race, Deyo-Charlson comorbidities, obesity, length of stay, and hospital characteristics. Overall, PJI prevalence was 15.0% (n = 70,011); adjusted prevalence increased from 13.1% in 2003 to 16.4% in 2013 (P < .0001), while adjusted median PJI hospitalization costs increased from $28,240 in 2003 to $31,529 in 2013 (P < .0001). Rural hospitals had the lowest PJI burden (12.5%; n = 4,525), while urban and teaching hospitals had the highest PJI burden (16.4%; n = 40,297). The stratified analyses, particularly in large hospitals (>500 beds), showed that PJI prevalence increased from 13.0% (2003) to 17.4% (2013; a 33.8% increase; P < .0001). Similarly, PJI revision hospitalization costs increased from a median of $27,490 (2003) to $31,312 (2013; a 14% increase; P < .0001). The burden of PJI in hip arthroplasty revision is increasing and-while additional research is needed-there appears to be a particular shift of revision burden to larger hospitals with increasing costs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

Novel single nucleotide polymorphism associations with colorectal cancer on chromosome 8q24 in African and European Americans

PubMed Central

Kupfer, Sonia S.; Torres, Jada Benn; Hooker, Stanley; Anderson, Jeffrey R.; Skol, Andrew D.; Ellis, Nathan A.; Kittles, Rick A.

2009-01-01

Regions on chromosome 8q24 harbor susceptibility alleles for multiple cancers including colorectal (region 3) and prostate cancer (regions 1–4). The objectives of the present study were (i) to test whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in region 4 are associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) in European or African Americans; (ii) to test whether 8q24 SNPs previously shown to be associated with colorectal and prostate cancer also show association in our multiethnic series and (iii) to test for association between 100 ancestry informative markers (AIMs) and CRC in both the African American and European American cohorts. In total, we genotyped nine markers on 8q24 and 100 unlinked AIMs in 569 CRC cases and 439 controls (490 European Americans and 518 African Americans) obtained retrospectively from a hospital-based sample. We found rs7008482 in 8q24 region 4 to be significantly associated with CRC in European Americans (P = 0.03). Also in region 4, we found that a second SNP, rs16900305, trended toward association with CRC in African Americans. The rs6983267 in region 3, previously implicated in CRC risk, trended toward association with disease in European Americans but not in African Americans. Finally, none of the 100 AIMs tested for association reached statistical significance after correction for multiple hypothesis testing. In summary, these results are evidence that 8q24 region 4 contains novel CRC-associated alleles in European and African Americans. PMID:19520795

Detection of trends and break points in temperature: the case of Umbria (Italy) and Guadalquivir Valley (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Grimaldi, Pascual; García-Marín, Amanda; Ayuso-Muñoz, José Luís; Flamini, Alessia; Morbidelli, Renato; Ayuso-Ruíz, José Luís

2018-02-01

The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact with values around 0.85 °C since the late nineteen century. Nevertheless, the increase is not equally distributed all over the world, varying from one region to others. Thus, it becomes interesting to study the evolution of temperature indices for a certain area in order to analyse the existence of climatic trend in it. In this work, monthly temperature time series from two Mediterranean areas are used: the Umbria region in Italy, and the Guadalquivir Valley in southern Spain. For the available stations, six temperature indices (three annual and three monthly) of mean, average maximum and average minimum temperature have been obtained, and the existence of trends has been studied by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Both regions show a general increase in all temperature indices, being the pattern of the trends clearer in Spain than in Italy. The Italian area is the only one at which some negative trends are detected. The presence of break points in the temperature series has been also studied by using the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), most of which may be due to natural phenomena.

Cumulative meta-analysis: a new tool for detection of temporal trends and publication bias in ecology.

PubMed Central

Leimu, Roosa; Koricheva, Julia

2004-01-01

Temporal changes in the magnitude of research findings have recently been recognized as a general phenomenon in ecology, and have been attributed to the delayed publication of non-significant results and disconfirming evidence. Here we introduce a method of cumulative meta-analysis which allows detection of both temporal trends and publication bias in the ecological literature. To illustrate the application of the method, we used two datasets from recently conducted meta-analyses of studies testing two plant defence theories. Our results revealed three phases in the evolution of the treatment effects. Early studies strongly supported the hypothesis tested, but the magnitude of the effect decreased considerably in later studies. In the latest studies, a trend towards an increase in effect size was observed. In one of the datasets, a cumulative meta-analysis revealed publication bias against studies reporting disconfirming evidence; such studies were published in journals with a lower impact factor compared to studies with results supporting the hypothesis tested. Correlation analysis revealed neither temporal trends nor evidence of publication bias in the datasets analysed. We thus suggest that cumulative meta-analysis should be used as a visual aid to detect temporal trends and publication bias in research findings in ecology in addition to the correlative approach. PMID:15347521

National Trends in Child and Adolescent Psychotropic Polypharmacy in Office-Based Practice, 1996-2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comer, Jonathan S.; Olfson, Mark; Mojtabai, Ramin

2010-01-01

Objective: To examine patterns and recent trends in multiclass psychotropic treatment among youth visits to office-based physicians in the United States. Method: Annual data from the 1996-2007 National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys were analyzed to examine patterns and trends in multiclass psychotropic treatment within a nationally…

Mortality among workers monitored for radiation exposure at the French nuclear fuel company.

PubMed

Metz-Flamant, C; Rogel, A; Caër, S; Samson, E; Laurier, D; Acker, A; Tirmarche, M

2009-01-01

A cohort of 9,285 nuclear workers employed at the French company AREVA NC specializing in the nuclear fuel cycle was established. Vital status, causes of death, employment characteristics and annual exposure to ionizing radiation were reconstructed for each individual over the time period 1977-2004. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed using national mortality rates as an external reference. Tests for trends in mortality with duration of employment and cumulative external dose were performed. The all-cause and all-cancer mortality was significantly lower than expected from the French population. No significant excess among cancer sites studied was observed. Significant positive trends with cumulative dose were observed for colon and liver cancer and for respiratory diseases. Isolated significant trends should be carefully interpreted and considered in line with the large number of trend tests performed.

FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

PubMed

Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

2012-10-04

The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size. Regions with larger populations (regions 4 and 6) had higher values of EA than region 10 (which had the smallest population) for negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms. The difference was 12.5% and 13.5% on average in negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms, respectively. We present the first detailed comparative analysis of popular early epidemic detection algorithms on Google Flu Trends data. We note that realizing this opportunity requires moving beyond the cumulative sum and historical limits method-based normal distribution approaches, traditionally employed by the CDC, to negative binomial- and Poisson-based algorithms to deal with potentially noisy search query data from regions with varying population and Internet penetrations. Based on our work, we have developed FluBreaks, an early warning system for flu epidemics using Google Flu Trends.

Trend of toxocariasis in Iran: a review on human and animal dimensions

PubMed Central

Zibaei, M.; Sadjjadi, S. M.

2017-01-01

One of the neglected soil and/or food-borne diseases with international public health importance is toxocariasis. Human cases are being increasingly reported from Asian, African, Oceania, European and the American countries. Hence, human toxocariasis (HT) is now considered as a major zoonosis with global and regional importance. In Iran, human and animal toxocariasis is an endemic disease with clinical and epidemiologic health problem aspects. Doubtless, understanding the epidemiology and the trend of this important parasitic disease and its affecting factors will provide the establishment of effective prevention and control programs. To better understand the trend of toxocariasis researches in Iran, this study was performed to analyze different aspects of this zoonotic disease including history, life cycle, species, human animals and environmental studies, diagnostic aspects and treatments to find out the gaps, including different aspects of clinical sings in human patients, new and specific recombinant antigens based on the native antigens, new diagnostic tools, especially rapid diagnostic tests, paratenic hosts status and new treatment procedures which is necessary to be investigated in the future studies on this important zoonotic disease. PMID:29387094

Robust, open-source removal of systematics in Kepler data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aigrain, S.; Parviainen, H.; Roberts, S.; Reece, S.; Evans, T.

2017-10-01

We present ARC2 (Astrophysically Robust Correction 2), an open-source python-based systematics-correction pipeline, to correct for the Kepler prime mission long-cadence light curves. The ARC2 pipeline identifies and corrects any isolated discontinuities in the light curves and then removes trends common to many light curves. These trends are modelled using the publicly available co-trending basis vectors, within an (approximate) Bayesian framework with 'shrinkage' priors to minimize the risk of overfitting and the injection of any additional noise into the corrected light curves, while keeping any astrophysical signals intact. We show that the ARC2 pipeline's performance matches that of the standard Kepler PDC-MAP data products using standard noise metrics, and demonstrate its ability to preserve astrophysical signals using injection tests with simulated stellar rotation and planetary transit signals. Although it is not identical, the ARC2 pipeline can thus be used as an open-source alternative to PDC-MAP, whenever the ability to model the impact of the systematics removal process on other kinds of signal is important.

Preliminary characterization of digestive enzymes in freshwater mussels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauey, Blake W.; Amberg, Jon J.; Cooper, Scott T.; Grunwald, Sandra K.; Newton, Teresa J.; Haro, Roger J.

2015-01-01

Resource managers lack an effective chemical tool to control the invasive zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha. Zebra mussels clog water intakes for hydroelectric companies, harm unionid mussel species, and are believed to be a reservoir of avian botulism. Little is known about the digestive physiology of zebra mussels and unionid mussels. The enzymatic profile of the digestive glands of zebra mussels and native threeridge (Amblema plicata) and plain pocketbook mussels (Lampsilis cardium) are characterized using a commercial enzyme kit, api ZYM, and validated the kit with reagent-grade enzymes. A linear correlation was shown for only one of nineteen enzymes, tested between the api ZYM kit and a specific enzyme kit. Thus, the api ZYM kit should only be used to make general comparisons of enzyme presence and to observe trends in enzyme activities. Enzymatic trends were seen in the unionid mussel species, but not in zebra mussels sampled 32 days apart from the same location. Enzymatic classes, based on substrate, showed different trends, with proteolytic and phospholytic enzymes having the most change in relative enzyme activity.

Why history matters for quantitative target setting: long-term trends in socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in US infant death rates (1960–2010)

PubMed Central

Krieger, Nancy; Singh, Nakul; Chen, Jarvis T.; Coull, Brent A.; Beckfield, Jason; Kiang, Mathew V.; Waterman, Pamela D.; Gruskin, Sofia

2016-01-01

Policy-oriented population health targets, such as the Millennium Development Goals and national targets to address health inequities, typically are based on trends of a decade or less. To test whether expanded timeframes might be more apt, we analyzed 50-year trends in US infant death rates (1960–2010) jointly by income and race/ethnicity. The largest annual percent changes in the infant death rate (between −4% and −10%) occurred, for all racial/ethnic groups, in the lowest income quintile between the mid-1960s and early 1980s, and in the second lowest income quintile between the mid-1960s and 1973; since the 1990s, they have hovered, in all groups, between −1% and −3%. Hence, to look back only 15 years, in 2014, to 1999, would ignore gains achieved prior to the post-1980 onset of neoliberal policies. Target setting should be informed by a deeper and more long-term appraisal of what is possible to achieve. PMID:25971237

Why history matters for quantitative target setting: Long-term trends in socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in US infant death rates (1960-2010).

PubMed

Krieger, Nancy; Singh, Nakul; Chen, Jarvis T; Coull, Brent A; Beckfield, Jason; Kiang, Mathew V; Waterman, Pamela D; Gruskin, Sofia

2015-08-01

Policy-oriented population health targets, such as the Millennium Development Goals and national targets to address health inequities, are typically based on trends of a decade or less. To test whether expanded timeframes might be more apt, we analyzed 50-year trends in US infant death rates (1960-2010) jointly by income and race/ethnicity. The largest annual per cent changes in the infant death rate (between -4 and -10 per cent), for all racial/ethnic groups, in the lowest income quintile occurred between the mid-1960s and early 1980s, and in the second lowest income quintile between the mid-1960s and 1973. Since the 1990s, these numbers have hovered, in all groups, between -1 and -3 per cent. Hence, to look back only 15 years (in 2014, to 1999) would ignore gains achieved prior to the onset of neoliberal policies after 1980. Target setting should be informed by a deeper and longer-term appraisal of what is possible to achieve.

Performance deterioration based on in-service engine data: JT9D jet engine diagnostics program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1979-01-01

Results of analyses of engine performance deterioration trends and levels with respect to service usage are presented. Thirty-two JT9D-7A engines were selected for this purpose. The selection of this engine fleet provided the opportunity of obtaining engine performance data starting before the first flight through initial service such that the trend and levels of engine deterioration related to both short and long term deterioration could be more carefully defined. The performance data collected and analyzed included in-flight, on wing (ground), and test stand prerepair and postrepair performance calibrations with expanded instrumentation where feasible. The results of the analyses of these data were used to: (1) close gaps in previously obtained historical data as well as augment the historical data with more carefully obtained data; (2) refine preliminary models of performance deterioration with respect to usage; (3) establish an understanding of the relationships between ground and altitude performance deterioration trends; (4) refine preliminary recommendations concerning means to reduce and control deterioration; and (5) identify areas where additional effort is required to develop an understanding of complex deterioration issues.

Measurement and analysis of acoustic flight test data for two advanced design high speed propeller models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, B. M.; Mackall, K. G.

1984-01-01

The recent test program, in which the SR-2 and SR-3 Prop-Fan models were acoustically tested in flight, is described and the results of analysis of noise data acquired are discussed. The trends of noise levels with flight operating parameters are shown. The acoustic benefits of the SR-3 design with swept blades relative to the SR-2 design with straight blades are shown. Noise data measured on the surface of a small-diameter microphone boom mounted above the fuselage and on the surface of the airplane fuselage are compared to show the effects of acoustic propagation through a boundary layer. Noise level estimates made using a theoretically based prediction methodology are compared with measurements.

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

Effect of HSV-2 on population-level trends in HIV incidence in Uganda between 1990 and 2007

PubMed Central

Biraro, Samuel; Kamali, Anatoli; White, Richard; Karabarinde, Alex; Nsiimire Ssendagala, Juliet; Grosskurth, Heiner; Weiss, Helen A

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the long-term effects of population-level HSV-2 infection on HIV incidence. Methods Data from a population-based cohort in south-western Uganda were used to estimate HIV incidence from 1990 to 2007. Stored blood samples were tested for HSV-2, and the impact of HSV-2 prevalence and incidence on HIV incidence was estimated by calculating population attributable fractions (PAFs). The association between population-level annual HIV incidence and annual HSV-2 incidence/prevalence was analysed using linear regression. Results HIV incidence declined over time among men, from 8.72/1000 person-years (pyr) in 1990 to 4.85/1000 pyr in 2007 (P-trend <0.001). In contrast, there was no decline in HIV incidence among women (4.86/1000 pyr in 1990 to 6.74/1000 pyr in 2007, P-trend = 0.18). PAFs of incident HIV attributable to HSV-2 were high (60% in males; 70% in females). There was no evidence of an association between long-term trends in HIV incidence and HSV-2 prevalence or incidence. Conclusion Assuming a causal relationship, a substantial proportion of new HIV infections in this population are attributable to HSV-2. The study did not find an effect of HSV-2 prevalence/incidence on trends in HIV incidence. HIV incidence did not vary much during the study period. This may partly explain the lack of association. PMID:24016032

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystem Water-use Efficiency to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Peng, S.; Ciais, P.; Cheng, L.; Mao, J.; Poulter, B.; Shi, X.; Yao, Y.; Yang, H.; Wang, Y.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions, and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO2. The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET) and transpiration-based WUE (WUEt, the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO2 and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m-2 mm-1 yr-1 for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO2 and NDEP.

SU-D-207B-07: Development of a CT-Radiomics Based Early Response Prediction Model During Delivery of Chemoradiation Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klawikowski, S; Christian, J; Schott, D

Purpose: Pilot study developing a CT-texture based model for early assessment of treatment response during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy (CRT) for pancreatic cancer. Methods: Daily CT data acquired for 24 pancreatic head cancer patients using CT-on-rails, during the routine CT-guided CRT delivery with a radiation dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions, were analyzed. The pancreas head was contoured on each daily CT. Texture analysis was performed within the pancreas head contour using a research tool (IBEX). Over 1300 texture metrics including: grey level co-occurrence, run-length, histogram, neighborhood intensity difference, and geometrical shape features were calculated for each dailymore » CT. Metric-trend information was established by finding the best fit of either a linear, quadratic, or exponential function for each metric value verses accumulated dose. Thus all the daily CT texture information was consolidated into a best-fit trend type for a given patient and texture metric. Linear correlation was performed between the patient histological response vector (good, medium, poor) and all combinations of 23 patient subgroups (statistical jackknife) determining which metrics were most correlated to response and repeatedly reliable across most patients. Control correlations against CT scanner, reconstruction kernel, and gated/nongated CT images were also calculated. Euclidean distance measure was used to group/sort patient vectors based on the data of these trend-response metrics. Results: We found four specific trend-metrics (Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffMomentNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1 Homogeneity2, and Intensity Direct Local StdMean) that were highly correlated with patient response and repeatedly reliable. Our four trend-metric model successfully ordered our pilot response dataset (p=0.00070). We found no significant correlation to our control parameters: gating (p=0.7717), scanner (p=0.9741), and kernel (p=0.8586). Conclusion: We have successfully created a CT-texture based early treatment response prediction model using the CTs acquired during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy for pancreatic cancer. Future testing is required to validate the model with more patient data.« less

An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts.

PubMed

Powell, Rachael; Pattison, Helen M; Francis, Jill J

2016-01-01

Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context.