Higher Education Trends (1997-1999): Finance. ERIC-HE Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kezar, Adrianna J.

The literature on financial issues in higher education is limited. Six major themes in the literature in l996 include the reduced federal role and increased state role in funding; managing costs, including deferred maintenance and capital spending in times of shrinking resources; concern about rising tuition and its impact on access; concern about…

Hired Farmworkers: Background and Trends for the Eighties. Rural Development Research Report Number 32.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Leslie Whitener; Coltrane, Robert

Farmers and their families continue to provide the largest proportion of agricultural labor, but hired farmworkers are increasingly supplying a greater part of farm employment. This trend is expected to continue in the eighties with the hired labor proportion gradually increasing. Better information, including crucial individual state data on…

Adoption research, practice, and societal trends: Ten years of progress.

PubMed

Wiley, Mary O'Leary

2017-12-01

Adoption involves the legal transfer of parental rights and responsibilities from a child's birth parents to adults who will raise the child (Reitz & Watson, 1992). Research related to adoption has expanded over the past 10 years and has incorporated more focus on implications for practice and public policy. This expansion has reflected increased awareness of the lived experience of adopted individuals, in addition to that of adoptive families and birth or first parents and families, collectively known as the adoption kinship network (Grotevant & McRoy, 1998). Trends discussed included research and social trends or movements (2007-2017) since the publication of the final article in a series of articles in the psychological literature related to adoption in The Counseling Psychologist (Baden & Wiley, 2007; Lee, 2003; O'Brien & Zamostny, 2003; Wiley & Baden, 2005; Zamostny, O'Brien, Baden, & Wiley, 2003; Zamostny, Wiley, O'Brien, Lee, & Baden, 2003). This article summarizes the social trends and research related to adoption over the last 10 years, including longitudinal and meta-analytic studies, increased research and conceptualization of ethnic and racial identity development, research on microaggressions, and research on diverse adoptive families, including those with gay and lesbian parents. Social trends included increased knowledge related to Internet accessibility, genetic information, continued focus on openness, and viewing adoption through a more critical lens. Implications are discussed for the development of programs that enhance competence of mental health professionals and adoption professionals in adoption-competent practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Recent Acceleration of the Terrestrial Hydrologic Cycle in the U.S. Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Wu, Chuanhao

2018-03-01

Most hydroclimatic trend studies considered only a subset of water budget variables; hence, the trend consistency and a holistic assessment of hydrologic changes across the entire water cycle cannot be evaluated. Here we use a unique 31 year (1983-2013) observed data set in Illinois (a representative region of the U.S. Midwest), including temperature (T), precipitation (P), evaporation (E), streamflow (R), soil moisture, and groundwater level (GWL), to estimate the trends and their sensitivity to different data periods and lengths. Both the Mann-Kendall trend test and the least squares linear method identify trends in close agreement. Despite no clear trends during 1983-2013, increasing trends are found in P (8.73-9.05 mm/year), E (6.87-7.47 mm/year), and R (1.57-3.54 mm/year) during 1992-2013, concurrently with a pronounced warming trend of 0.029-0.037 °C/year. However, terrestrial water storageis decreased by -2.0 mm/year (mainly due to declining GWL), suggesting that the increased R is caused by increased surface runoff rather than baseflow. Monthly analyses identify warming trends for all months except winter. In summer, P (E) exhibits an increasing (decreasing) trend, leading to increasing R, soil moisture, GWL, and terrestrial water storage. Most trends estimated for different subperiods are found to be sensitive to data lengths and periods. Overall, this study provides an internally consistent observed evidence on the intensification of the hydrologic cycle in response to recent climate warming in U.S. Midwest, in agreement with and well supported by several recent studies consistently reporting the increased P, R and E over the Midwest and Mississippi River basin.

The 2005 RPA timber assessment update.

Treesearch

Richard W. Haynes; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Peter J. Ince; John R. Mills; Xiaoping. Zhou

2007-01-01

This update reports changes in the Nation's timber resource since the Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States was completed in 2003. Prospective trends in demands for and supplies of timber, and the factors that affect these trends are examined. These trends include changes in the U.S. economy, increased salvage of British Columbia beetle-killed...

Publication trends in Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's Archives of Pharmacology: focus on pharmacology in Egypt.

PubMed

El-Mas, Mahmoud M; El-Gowelli, Hanan M; Michel, Martin C

2013-11-01

In a previous analysis of the country of origin of papers published in Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's Archives of Pharmacology, a major shift toward contributions from emerging market countries, was noticed in comparison of 2010 to 2001 publications. Repeating such analysis for 2012 publications in the journal confirmed this trend. An interesting new trend was the emerging presence of papers from a variety of Islamic countries including Egypt. Based on this trend, we shortly review the history and current structure of pharmacology in Egypt. It appears that the presence of Egyptian pharmacology in international journals including pharmacology journals has sharply been increasing over the last two decades. Challenges for a continuation of this encouraging trend are being discussed.

Long-term trends in alkalinity in large rivers of the conterminous US in relation to acidification, agriculture, and hydrologic modification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stets, Edward G.; Kelly, Valerie J.; Crawford, Charles G.

2014-01-01

Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate + sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen–Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate + sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state.

Long-term trends in alkalinity in large rivers of the conterminous US in relation to acidification, agriculture, and hydrologic modification.

PubMed

Stets, E G; Kelly, V J; Crawford, C G

2014-08-01

Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate+sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen-Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate+sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Living arrangements among older people: an overview of trends in Europe and the USA.

PubMed

Tomassini, Cecilia; Glaser, Karen; Wolf, Douglas A; Broese van Groenou, Marjolein I; Grundy, Emily

2004-01-01

This article compares the trends in living arrangements of older people in several European countries and in the United States. Trends and cross-country variability in several factors that could account for these cross-national differences, including marital status, fertility, labour force participation and attitudes, are also examined. In most countries the proportion of older people living alone increased substantially between 1970 and 1990. However the increase in living alone stabilised or even declined between 1990 and 2000 in most of the countries analysed indicating a possible reversal in the trend. Increases in proportions of older women who are married and reductions in the proportions childless may partially explain this. Considerable variability in both trends and levels of older people's living arrangements was seen especially between north-western and southern European countries. These variations mirrored contrasts in attitudes towards residential care and parent-child coresidence between the countries.

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

Latino Population Growth, Characteristics, and Settlement Trends: Implications for Social Work Education in a Dynamic Political Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vidal de Haymes, Maria; Kilty, Keith M.

2007-01-01

This paper identifies a number of significant contemporary trends in the Latino population, including the striking growth of the community, new points of entry and settlement for recent immigrants, the mixed-status nature of families, and the increase in the proportion of U.S. households that speak Spanish. The implications of these trends for…

Syphilis Trends among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States and Western Europe: A Systematic Review of Trend Studies Published between 2004 and 2015.

PubMed

Abara, Winston E; Hess, Kristen L; Neblett Fanfair, Robyn; Bernstein, Kyle T; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2016-01-01

Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately burdened with syphilis. This review describes the published literature on trends in syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe from 1998, the period with the fewest syphilis infections in both geographical areas, onwards. We also describe disparities in syphilis trends among various sub-populations of MSM. We searched electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health, PsychInfo, CAB Abstracts, CINAHL, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and LILACS) for peer-reviewed journal articles that were published between January 2004 and June 2015 and reported on syphilis cases among MSM at multiple time points from 1998 onwards. Ten articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from the US and eight articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from Western Europe were identified and included in this review. Taken together, our findings indicate an increase in the numbers and rates (per 100,000) of syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe since 1998. Disparities in the syphilis trends among MSM were also noted, with greater increases observed among HIV-positive MSM than HIV-negative MSM in both the US and Western Europe. In the US, racial minority MSM and MSM between 20 and 29 years accounted for the greatest increases in syphilis infections over time whereas White MSM accounted for most syphilis infections over time in Western Europe. Multiple strategies, including strengthening and targeting current syphilis screening and testing programs, and the prompt treatment of syphilis cases are warranted to address the increase in syphilis infections among all MSM in the US and Western Europe, but particularly among HIV-infected MSM, racial minority MSM, and young MSM in the US.

Syphilis Trends among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States and Western Europe: A Systematic Review of Trend Studies Published between 2004 and 2015

PubMed Central

Abara, Winston E.; Hess, Kristen L.; Neblett Fanfair, Robyn; Bernstein, Kyle T.; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2016-01-01

Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately burdened with syphilis. This review describes the published literature on trends in syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe from 1998, the period with the fewest syphilis infections in both geographical areas, onwards. We also describe disparities in syphilis trends among various sub-populations of MSM. We searched electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health, PsychInfo, CAB Abstracts, CINAHL, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and LILACS) for peer-reviewed journal articles that were published between January 2004 and June 2015 and reported on syphilis cases among MSM at multiple time points from 1998 onwards. Ten articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from the US and eight articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from Western Europe were identified and included in this review. Taken together, our findings indicate an increase in the numbers and rates (per 100,000) of syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe since 1998. Disparities in the syphilis trends among MSM were also noted, with greater increases observed among HIV-positive MSM than HIV-negative MSM in both the US and Western Europe. In the US, racial minority MSM and MSM between 20 and 29 years accounted for the greatest increases in syphilis infections over time whereas White MSM accounted for most syphilis infections over time in Western Europe. Multiple strategies, including strengthening and targeting current syphilis screening and testing programs, and the prompt treatment of syphilis cases are warranted to address the increase in syphilis infections among all MSM in the US and Western Europe, but particularly among HIV-infected MSM, racial minority MSM, and young MSM in the US. PMID:27447943

Effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on runoff and sediment yield characteristics of bare loess soil.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Peng, Mengling; Qiao, Shanshan; Ma, Xiao-Yi

2018-02-01

Soil erosion is a universal phenomenon on the Loess Plateau but it exhibits complex and typical mechanism which makes it difficult to understand soil loss laws on slopes. We design artificial simulated rainfall experiments including six rainfall intensities (45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120 mm/h) and five slopes (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25°) to reveal the fundamental changing trends of runoff and sediment yield on bare loess soil. Here, we show that the runoff yield within the initial 15 min increased rapidly and its trend gradually became stable. Trends of sediment yield under different rainfall intensities are various. The linear correlation between runoff and rainfall intensity is obvious for different slopes, but the correlations between sediment yield and rainfall intensity are weak. Runoff and sediment yield on the slope surface both presents an increasing trend when the rainfall intensity increases from 45 mm/h to 120 mm/h, but the increasing trend of runoff yield is higher than that of sediment yield. The sediment yield also has an overall increasing trend when the slope changes from 5° to 25°, but the trend of runoff yield is not obvious. Our results may provide data support and underlying insights needed to guide the management of soil conservation planning on the Loess Plateau.

The Education System of the Nineteenth Century: The Direction, Trends and Tensions of Curriculum Reforms in the Twenty-First Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braslavsky, Cecilia

The need for curriculum change is based on the recognition that there has been a consolidation of a number of trends that began at least 20 years ago. These trends include: changes in occupational profiles in an increasingly globalized work environment; the need to counteract social inequities and marginalization; the need to recognize diversity…

Rising Intragenerational Occupational Mobility in the United States, 1969 to 2011

PubMed Central

Jarvis, Benjamin F.; Song, Xi

2017-01-01

Despite the theoretical importance of intragenerational mobility and its connection to intergenerational mobility, no study since the 1970s has documented trends in intragenerational occupational mobility. The present article fills this intellectual gap by presenting evidence of an increasing trend in intragenerational mobility in the United States from 1969 to 2011. We decompose the trend using a nested occupational classification scheme that distinguishes between disaggregated micro-classes and progressively more aggregated meso-classes, macro-classes, and manual and nonmanual sectors. Log-linear analysis reveals that mobility increased across the occupational structure at nearly all levels of aggregation, especially after the early 1990s. Controlling for structural changes in occupational distributions modifies, but does not substantially alter, these findings. Trends are qualitatively similar for men and women. We connect increasing mobility to other macro-economic trends dating back to the 1970s, including changing labor force composition, technologies, employment relations, and industrial structures. We reassert the sociological significance of intragenerational mobility and discuss how increasing variability in occupational transitions within careers may counteract or mask trends in intergenerational mobility, across occupations and across more broadly construed social classes. PMID:28966346

Explaining the increasing disability prevalence among mid-life US adults, 2002 to 2016.

PubMed

Zajacova, Anna; Montez, Jennifer Karas

2018-05-24

Several recent studies have documented an alarming upward trend in disability and functional limitations among US adults. In this study, we draw on the sociomedical Disablement Process framework to produce up-to-date estimates of the trends and identify key social and medical precursors of the trends. Using data on US adults aged 45-64 in the 2002-2016 National Health Interview Surveys, we estimate parametric and semiparametric models of disability and functional limitations as a function of interview time. We also determine the impact of socioeconomic resources, health behaviors, and health conditions on the trends. Our results show increasing prevalence of disability and functional limitations. These trends reflect the net result of complex countervailing forces, some associated with increases in functioning problems (unfavorable trends in economic well-being, especially income, and psychological distress) while other factors have suppressed the growth of functioning problems (favorable trends in educational attainment and some health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use). The results underscore that disability prevention must expand beyond medical interventions to include fundamental social factors and be focused on preventing or delaying the onset of chronic health problems and functional limitations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

Endowments: Investing in Education's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Ronald A.

1996-01-01

A discussion of college endowment fund management looks at a trend toward successful investments in the last year and focuses on the increasing financial sophistication of historically black institutions. Trends include less conservative investing, more trustee involvement in investment decision making, and use of investment counselors. (MSE)

Letters from a suicide: Van Gogh and his sister.

PubMed

Lester, David

2010-04-01

An analysis of trends over a 3-yr. period in the letters of Vincent Van Gogh to his sister as the time of his suicide approached identified 8 trends, including an increase in words concerned with anxiety and words concerned with the past.

Applications in Robotics and Controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youcef-Toumi, Kamal

2008-06-01

Recent industry trends have set new standards in business dealings and trades. Issues such as time to market, shoter market wondows, product performance, rapid increase of product complexity, costly mistakes, costly late introductions, and customer expectations have changed significantly. These trends have also influenced to a great extend the academic world. Some of these trends will be illustrated through examples which include automated systems, robotics, biotechnollogy, and nanotechnology. The examples will include concepts and prototypes of engineering systems in the macro, micro and nanodomains. The presentation also amphasizes the merging of the traditionally segregated disciplines into one multidisciplinary modeling, design, optimization and control approach.

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Recruiting Trends, 1997-98: A National Study of Job Market Trends for New College Graduates among 477 Businesses, Industries, and Governmental Agencies. 27th Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheetz, L. Patrick

This report of job recruiting trends affecting 1997-98 college graduates is based on survey results from 477 businesses, industries, and governmental agencies. It notes that employers anticipate an increase of 27.5 percent in job prospects for new college graduates and that there is a high demand for technical graduates, including majors in…

Unemployment levels after the global financial crisis linked to increase in suicides.

PubMed

2013-10-23

The 2008 global economic crisis appears to have triggered an increase in suicides, particularly among men in Europe and America. To investigate the impact of the economic crisis on international trends in suicide, researchers conducted an analysis comparing the number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would have been expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-2007). The analysis included data from 54 countries.

Popcorn Anyone? Grazing the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magee, Clare

1994-01-01

Discusses social trends outlined in the Popcorn Report (Faith Popcorn) that affect outdoor education, including constant political, cultural, and personal change and the many life roles people maintain. Most important to outdoor education are the trends of increased consumer awareness, concern with physical health and overall wellness, and the…

A Survey of Final-year Undergraduate Laboratory Projects in Biochemistry and Related Degrees in Great Britain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Caroline A.

1997-01-01

Analyzes undergraduate research projects in biochemistry and related subjects at British universities. Discusses the trend toward students doing less research as part of their undergraduate study. Reasons cited for this trend include increased student numbers and costs. (DDR)

Seven Important Labor Force Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailey, John A.

1982-01-01

Presents statistics on the changing human resources mix in the labor force, which vocational counselors should be aware of. Trends include higher percentages of women working, and older men and married men leaving the work force. One result is an increasing number of persons are able to retire earlier. (JAC)

The Merging Categories: Appropriate Education or Administrative Convenience?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phipps, Patricia M.

1982-01-01

The trend to include mildly mentally retarded, emotionally disturbed (behavior disordered), and learning disabled children in the same generic category and in the same school programs is increasing. The author believes that the noncategorical trend in special education can endanger the appropriate education of many children. (Author)

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count frequency also improved precision. These results suggest that the current distribution of count timings available in lek count databases such as that of Wyoming (conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise) can be used to estimate sage-grouse population trends without reducing precision or accuracy relative to trends from counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. However, only 10% of all Wyoming counts in our sample (1995−2014) were conducted 61−90 minutes after sunrise, and further increasing this percentage may still bias trend estimates because of declining lek attendance. 

Trends in Dietary Fat Intake and High-Fat Foods from 1991-2008 in the Framingham Heart Study participants

PubMed Central

Vadiveloo, Maya; Scott, Marc; Quatromoni, Paula; Jacques, Paul; Parekh, Niyati

2014-01-01

Few longitudinal studies among US adults have evaluated long-term dietary fat intakes and compared them to national recommendations during the 2-decade period when the prevalence of obesity and insulin resistance increased substantively. We examined trends in dietary fat intake and rich dietary sources of fats in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort over a 17-year period. The cohort was established in 1971-75 with follow-up examinations approximately every 4 years. Dietary data were collected using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire beginning in 1991 (Exam 5). We included 2,732 adults ages ≥25y with complete dietary data in at least three exams from 1991-2008. Descriptive statistics were generated using SASv9.3 and a repeated measures model was used to examine trends in macronutrient and food intake using R. Over 17-years of follow-up, the %energy from total fat and protein increased (27.3-29.8% energy and 16.8-18.0% energy respectively) and %energy from carbohydrate decreased (51.0-46.8% energy;p-trend<0.001). Increases were seen in all fat subtypes except for trans-fats, which decreased over time (p-trend<0.001). Trends were similar between sexes, although women had a greater increase in %energy from saturated fats and less reduction in %energy from trans-fats (p-interaction<0.05). Trends of fat intakes were similar across BMI categories. Weekly servings of cheese, eggs, ice cream desserts, nuts, butter, and sausages/processed meats increased, whereas intake of milk, margarine, poultry, confectioneries, chips and breads decreased(p-trend<0.001). In this cohort of predominantly Caucasian older adults, %energy from dietary fat increased over time but remained within national recommendations of <35% of total energy, on average. PMID:24047827

A global trend: privatization and reform of social security pension plans.

PubMed

Poortvliet, W G; Laine, T P

1995-01-01

Ten years ago Chile successfully privatized its social security system, beginning a worldwide trend to solve the problem of an increasing burden on government-supported social security programs. Contributing factors include an aging population, fewer workers to support retirees, government budget deficits and the influence of politics.

Troubling Trends: The Health of America's Next Generation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Commission To Prevent Infant Mortality, Washington, DC.

Trends during the 1980s are described including high infant mortality, no decline in low birthweight percentages, an increase in the black-white infant mortality gap, more high-risk pregnancies, and inadequate prenatal care. Inadequate progress in reducing infant mortality is attributed in part to the limited technological ability to save…

Red-cockaded woodpecker population trends and management on Texas national forests

Treesearch

Richard N. Conner; D. Craig Rudolph

1994-01-01

Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population trends and concurrent management on four national forests in eastern Texas were evaluated from 1983 through 1993. Following years of decline, populations stabilized and began to increase after intensive management efforts were initiated. Management activities included control of hardwood midstory and understory,...

Physical Functioning Trends among US Women and Men Age 45-64 by Education Level.

PubMed

Zajacova, Anna; Montez, Jennifer Karas

2017-01-01

Functional limitations and disability declined in the US during the 1980s and 1990s, but reports of early 21st century trends are mixed. Whether educational inequalities in functioning increased or decreased is also poorly understood. Given the importance of disability for productivity, independent living, and health care costs, these trends are critical to US social and health policies. We examine recent trends in functional limitations and disability among women and men aged 45-64. Using 2000-2015 National Health Interview Surveys data on over 155,000 respondents, semiparametric and logistic regression models visualize and test functioning trends by education. Among women and men with at least a college degree, there was no change in disability and mild increase in limitations over time. All other education levels experienced significant increases in functioning problems ranging from 18% higher odds of functional limitations in 2015 compared to 2000 among men with some college to about 80% increase in the odds of disability among women and men with less than high school education. The similar trends for both genders suggest common underlying causes, possibly including the worsening economic well-being of middle- and working-class families. The pervasive growth of functioning problems is a cause for concern that necessitates further scholarly investigation.

[Recent demographic trends].

PubMed

1983-01-01

A review of demographic trends in Luxembourg in 1982 is presented. A decline in fertility, the first since 1977, is noted, together with an increase in divorce, as well as a negative migration balance for the first time since 1967. Topics covered include natural increase and migration, fertility, marriage and divorce, mortality, adoption, and legislation affecting the family. Special consideration is given to the mortality experience of those who were subjected to compulsory labor during World War II.

Thrombolysis and outcome of young stroke patients over the last decade: insights from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Kansara, Amit; Chaturvedi, Seemant; Bhattacharya, Pratik

2013-08-01

A recent study found a trend toward increasing hospitalizations for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) among young adults, raising concern for this subgroup. In the present study, we evaluated trends of use of thrombolysis and outcome among young adults (19-44 years of age) with AIS using a nationally representative administrative database. Discharge data were obtained from Nationwide Inpatient Sample between 2001 and 2009. Hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of AIS for patients 19 to 44 years of age were included. Use of thrombolysis was determined within this subset. The Cochran-Armitage test was used for trend analysis. Thrombolysis in young patients with AIS increased from 354 (1.84%) in 2001 to 1,237 (4.97%) in 2009 (P < .0001). The highest increase was noted at urban teaching hospitals. There was a progressive decrease in mortality in young AIS patients, from 6.81% in 2001 to 5.43% in 2009 (trend P = .027) and significant increase in discharges to rehabilitation (3.42% in 2002 to 12.7% in 2009 [trend P < .0001]). Discharge to other facilities decreased significantly (29.1% in 2001 to 17.8% in 2009 [trend P < .0001]). The rate of intracranial hemorrhage (2.70% in 2001; 2.69% in 2009) did not show any significant change despite the increase in the use of thrombolysis (trend P = .39). The rate of thrombolysis among young patients with AIS increased significantly between 2001 and 2009. A decrease in deaths with increased rehabilitation placements of young patients with AIS was noted over the last decade, suggesting improving outcomes. The lower rate of use of thrombolysis in rural hospitals may be improved with the widespread use of telestroke. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of ground-water data for selected wells near Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, 1950-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, G.F.

1996-01-01

Ground-water-level, ground-water-withdrawal, and ground- water-quality data were evaluated for trends. Holloman Air Force Base is located in the west-central part of Otero County, New Mexico. Ground-water-data analyses include assembly and inspection of U.S. Geological Survey and Holloman Air Force Base data, including ground-water-level data for public-supply and observation wells and withdrawal and water-quality data for public-supply wells in the area. Well Douglas 4 shows a statistically significant decreasing trend in water levels for 1972-86 and a statistically significant increasing trend in water levels for 1986-90. Water levels in wells San Andres 5 and San Andres 6 show statistically significant decreasing trends for 1972-93 and 1981-89, respectively. A mixture of statistically significant increasing trends, statistically significant decreasing trends, and lack of statistically significant trends over periods ranging from the early 1970's to the early 1990's are indicated for the Boles wells and wells near the Boles wells. Well Boles 5 shows a statistically significant increasing trend in water levels for 1981-90. Well Boles 5 and well 17S.09E.25.343 show no statistically significant trends in water levels for 1990-93 and 1988-93, respectively. For 1986-93, well Frenchy 1 shows a statistically significant decreasing trend in water levels. Ground-water withdrawal from the San Andres and Douglas wells regularly exceeded estimated ground-water recharge from San Andres Canyon for 1963-87. For 1951-57 and 1960-86, ground-water withdrawal from the Boles wells regularly exceeded total estimated ground-water recharge from Mule, Arrow, and Lead Canyons. Ground-water withdrawal from the San Andres and Douglas wells and from the Boles wells nearly equaled estimated ground- water recharge for 1989-93 and 1986-93, respectively. For 1987- 93, ground-water withdrawal from the Escondido well regularly exceeded estimated ground-water recharge from Escondido Canyon, and ground-water withdrawal from the Frenchy wells regularly exceeded total estimated ground-water recharge from Dog and Deadman Canyons. Water-quality samples were collected from selected Douglas, San Andres, and Boles public-supply wells from December 1994 to February 1995. Concentrations of dissolved nitrate show the most consistent increases between current and historical data. Current concentrations of dissolved nitrate are greater than historical concentrations in 7 of 10 wells.

Decadal-scale trends in regional aerosol particle properties and their linkage to emission changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Bin; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Gu, Yu; Diner, David; Worden, John; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Su, Hui; Xing, Jia; Garay, Michael; Huang, Lei

2017-05-01

Understanding long-term trends in aerosol loading and properties is essential for evaluating the health and climatic effects of these airborne particulates as well as the effectiveness of pollution control policies. While many studies have used satellite data to examine the trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD), very few have investigated the trends in aerosol properties associated with particle size, morphology, and light absorption. In this study, we investigate decadal-scale (13-15 year) trends in aerosol loading and properties during 2001-2015 over three populous regions: the Eastern United States (EUS), Western Europe (WEU), and Eastern and Central China (ECC). We use observations from MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). Relationships between aerosol property trends and air pollutant emission changes are examined. We find that annual mean AOD shows pronounced decreasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, as a result of considerable emission reductions in all major pollutants except for mineral dust and ammonia (NH3). Over the ECC region, AOD increases before 2006 due to emission increases induced by rapid economic development, fluctuates between 2006 and 2011, and subsequently decreases after 2011 in conjunction with effective emission reduction in anthropogenic primary aerosols, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The fraction of small-size AOD (<0.7 μm diameter), Ångstrom exponent and single-scattering albedo have generally decreased, while the fractions of large-size (>1.4 μm diameter), nonspherical and absorbing AOD have generally shown increasing trends over EUS and WEU regions, indicating that fine and light-scattering aerosol constituents have been more effectively reduced than coarse and light-absorbing constituents. These trends are consistent with the larger reduction ratios in SO2 and NOx emissions than in primary aerosols, including mineral dust and black carbon (BC). Over the ECC region, no significant trends are observed with respect to size distribution, morphology, or light absorption, which we attribute to a simultaneous increase in emissions of SO2, NOx, and primary aerosols including BC before 2006, and a simultaneous decrease after 2011. This study demonstrates the importance and usefulness of satellite-borne sensors, particularly MISR, in association with evaluating the effectiveness of air pollution control policies.

Increased trend in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use by adults in the United States since 2007.

PubMed

Gerke, Alicia K; Tang, Fan; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Doerschug, Kevin C; Polgreen, Philip M

2015-11-18

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been increasingly studied as a life support modality, but it is unclear if its use has changed over time. Recent publication shows no significant trend in use of ECMO over time; however, this report does not include more recent data. We performed trend analysis to determine if and when the use of ECMO changed in the past decade. We identified hospitalizations (2000-2011) in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample during which ECMO was recorded. We used a segmented linear regression model to determine trend and to identify a temporal change point when rate of ECMO use increased. ECMO use gradually grew until 2007, at which time there was a dramatic increase in the rate (p = 0.0003). There was no difference in mortality after 2007 (p = 0.3374), but there was longer length of stay (p = 0.0001) and smaller percentage of women (p = 0.005). There has been a marked increase in ECMO use since 2007. As ECMO use becomes more common, further study regarding indications, cost-effectiveness, and outcomes is warranted to guide optimal use.

The trends in total energy, macronutrients and sodium intake among Japanese: findings from the 1995-2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

Saito, Aki; Imai, Shino; Htun, Nay Chi; Okada, Emiko; Yoshita, Katsushi; Yoshiike, Nobuo; Takimoto, Hidemi

2018-06-04

Monitoring nutritional status of the population is essential in the development and evaluation of national or local health policies. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate analysis on the trends in dietary intake of energy and macronutrients, as well as Na, in Japanese population using the data of series of cross-sectional national surveys - the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) and the National Health Nutrition Survey (NHNS) - during the period from 1995 to 2016. The NNS and NHNS participants aged 20-79 years were included in the analysis. Dietary intake was estimated using 1-d household-based dietary record. The trend in total energy intake, energy intake from macronutrients (fat and protein), Na intake and energy-adjusted Na intake were analysed using regression models adjusted to 2010 age distribution and anthropometry status. A total of 94 270 men and 107 890 women were included the analysis. Total energy intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. Similarly, energy intake from protein decreased, but energy intake (%) from fat increased in both sexes. Energy-adjusted Na intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. This study identified the decrease in total energy intake and energy intake from protein, whereas there were inverse trends in energy intake from fat among Japanese adults. Continued monitoring of trends in dietary intake will be needed, and there should be efforts to increase the accuracy of current survey procedures.

Attribution of recent ozone changes in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes using statistical analysis and chemistry-climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Guang; Morgenstern, Olaf; Shiona, Hisako; Thomas, Alan J.; Querel, Richard R.; Nichol, Sylvia E.

2017-09-01

Ozone (O3) trends and variability from a 28-year (1987-2014) ozonesonde record at Lauder, New Zealand, have been analysed and interpreted using a statistical model and a global chemistry-climate model (CCM). Lauder is a clean rural measurement site often representative of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude background atmosphere. O3 trends over this period at this location are characterised by a significant positive trend below 6 km, a significant negative trend in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere between 9 and 15 km, and no significant trend in the free troposphere (6-9 km) and the stratosphere above 15 km. We find that significant positive trends in lower tropospheric ozone are correlated with increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity at the surface over this period, whereas significant negative trends in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere appear to be strongly linked to an upward trend of the tropopause height. Relative humidity and the tropopause height also dominate O3 variability at Lauder in the lower troposphere and the tropopause region, respectively. We perform an attribution of these trends to anthropogenic forcings including O3 precursors, greenhouse gases (GHGs), and O3-depleting substances (ODSs), using CCM simulations. Results indicate that changes in anthropogenic O3 precursors contribute significantly to stratospheric O3 reduction, changes in ODSs contribute significantly to tropospheric O3 reduction, and increased GHGs contribute significantly to stratospheric O3 increases at Lauder. Methane (CH4) likely contributes positively to O3 trends in both the troposphere and the stratosphere, but the contribution is not significant at the 95 % confidence level over this period. An extended analysis of CCM results covering 1960-2010 (i.e. starting well before the observations) reveals significant contributions from all forcings to O3 trends at Lauder - i.e. increases in GHGs and the increase in CH4 alone all contribute significantly to O3 increases, net increases in ODSs lead to O3 reduction, and increases in non-methane O3 precursors cause O3 increases in the troposphere and reductions in the stratosphere. This study suggests that a long-term ozonesonde record obtained at a SH mid-latitude background site (corroborated by a surface O3 record at a nearby SH mid-latitude site, Baring Head, which also shows a significant positive trend) is a useful indicator for detecting atmospheric composition and climate change associated with human activities.

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Rural Transportation in New York State: A Preliminary Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Legislative Commission on Rural Resources, Albany.

The report catalogs strengths, defines problems, and establishes goals for the next two decades for rural New York in the area of transportation. Describing where rural New York is today, section one lists 12 trends, 8 strengths, and 16 weaknesses affecting transporation. Trends include increased rural population inflow and demands on local…

A Comparative Thematic Review of Vocational Leadership Literature from the USA, Great Britain and Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crossman, Brian; Cameron, Roslyn

2014-01-01

Vocational education and its leadership is an important sphere of economic activity worldwide and is being impacted by several trends including: the increasing significance and centrality of skills development in today's economies; economic trends associated with globalisation (internationalisation of education and emergence of global labour…

Five Trends for Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapkoff, Shelley; Li, Rose Maria

2007-01-01

The authors look at important demographic trends that will have an effect on schools, including roller-coaster enrollments and increasing diversity. For example, compared with 10 years ago, the average child entering a U.S. school today is less likely to live in a family with two married parents but is more likely to have a living grandparent,…

Education and Income: Recent U.S. Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Frank; Michel, Richard C.

This paper examines the growing college premium for younger men and the earnings patterns for other groups that developed between 1973 and 1987. At first glance, the rapidly increasing college premium for young men seems to confirm several frequently cited economic trends, including a massive restructuring of the economy that displaces all less…

Report on Federal Productivity. Volume 1, Productivity Trends, FY 1967-1973.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joint Financial Management Improvement Program, Washington, DC.

Volume 1 reports on Federal productivity and productivity trends for Fiscal Years 1967-1973, and comments on the causes of productivity increases and decreases. The report, prepared to promote improved financial management in individual agencies and on a government-wide scale, includes productivity measurement data supplied by 46 agencies. The…

World Trends and Issues in Adult Literacy: Update, 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhola, H. S.

Some of the trends and issues in worldwide adult literacy include the existence of the following: (1) an increasing percentage of literate people, perhaps resulting from more children's education rather than literacy initiatives for adults; (2) fuzzy definitions of literacy and inaccurate self-reported data; (3) a change in ideology, moving from…

Evaluating regional trends in ground-water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin ground water management area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2005-01-01

Trends in nitrate concentrations in water from 474 wells in 17 subregions in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) in three counties in eastern Washington were evaluated using a variety of statistical techniques, including the Friedman test and the Kendall test. The Kendall test was modified from its typical 'seasonal' version into a 'regional' version by using well locations in place of seasons. No statistically significant trends in nitrate concentrations were identified in samples from wells in the GWMA, the three counties, or the 17 subregions from 1998 to 2002 when all data were included in the analysis. For wells in which nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L), however, a significant downward trend of -0.4 mg/L per year was observed between 1998 and 2002 for the GWMA as a whole, as well as for Adams County (-0.35 mg/L per year) and for Franklin County (-0.46 mg/L per year). Trend analysis for a smaller but longer-term 51-well dataset in Franklin County found a statistically significant upward trend in nitrate concentrations of 0.1 mg/L per year between 1986 and 2003. The largest increase of nitrate concentrations occurred between 1986 and 1991. No statistically significant differences were observed in this dataset between 1998 and 2003 indicating that the increase in nitrate concentrations has leveled off.

Trends in selected water-quality characteristics, Flathead River at Flathead, British Columbia, and at Columbia Falls, Montana, water years, 1975-86

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cary, L.E.

1989-01-01

Data for selected water quality variables were evaluated for trends at two sampling stations--Flathead River at Flathead, British Columbia (Flathead station) and Flathead River at Columbia Falls, Montana (Columbia Falls station). The results were compared between stations. The analyses included data from water years 1975-86 at the Flathead station and water years 1979-86 at the Columbia Falls station. The seasonal Kendall test was applied to adjusted concentrations for variables related to discharge and to unadjusted concentrations for the remaining variables. Slope estimates were made for variables with significant trends unless data were reported as less than the detection limit. At the Flathead station, concentrations of dissolved solids, calcium, magnesium, sodium, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen (total and dissolved), total organic nitrogen, and total phosphorus increased during the study period. Concentrations of total nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen and dissolved iron decreased during the same period. At the Columbia Falls station, concentrations increased for calcium and magnesium and decreased for sulfate and dissolved phosphorus. No trends were detected for 10 other variables tested at each station. Data for the Flathead station were reanalyzed for water years 1979-86. Trends in the data increased for magnesium and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen and decreased for dissolved iron. Magnesium was the only variable that displayed a trend (increasing) at both stations. The increasing trends that were detected probably will not adversely affect the water quality of the Flathead River in the near future. (USGS)

Trends In Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations and Loads In Major River Basins of the South-Central United States, 1993-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rebich, Richard A.; Demcheck, Dennis K.

2008-01-01

Nutrient and sediment data collected at 115 sites by Federal and State agencies from 1993 to 2004 were analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine trends in concentrations and loads for selected rivers and streams that drain into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the south-central United States, specifically from the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf Basins. Trends observed in the study area were compared to determine potential regional patterns and to determine cause-effect relations with trends in hydrologic and human-induced factors such as nutrient sources, streamflow, and implementation of best management practices. Secondary objectives included calculation of loads and yields for the study period as a basis for comparing the delivery of nutrients and sediment to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the various rivers within the study area. In addition, loads were assessed at seven selected sites for the period 1980-2004 to give hydrologic perspective to trends in loads observed during 1993-2004. Most study sites (about 64 percent) either had no trends or decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period. The regional pattern of decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period appeared to correspond to moist conditions at the beginning of the study period and the influence of three drought periods during the study period, of which the most extreme was in 2000. Trend tests were completed for ammonia at 49 sites, for nitrite plus nitrate at 69 sites, and for total nitrogen at 41 sites. For all nitrogen constituents analyzed, no trends were observed at half or more of the sites. No regional trend patterns could be confirmed because there was poor spatial representation of the trend sites. Decreasing trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of ammonia were observed at 25 sites. No increasing trends in concentrations of ammonia were noted at any sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate decreased at 7 sites and increased at14 sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen decreased at 2 sites and increased at 12 sites. Improvements to municipal wastewater treatment facilities contributed to the decline of ammonia concentrations at selected sites. Notable increasing trends in nitrite plus nitrate and total nitrogen at selected study sites were attributed to both point and nonpointsources. Trend patterns in total nitrogen generally followed trend patterns in nitrite plus nitrate, which was understandable given that nitrite plus nitrate loads generally were 70-90 percent of the total nitrogen loads at most sites. Population data were used as a surrogate to understand the relation between changes in point sources and nutrient trends because data from wastewater treatment plants were inconsistent for this study area. Although population increased throughout the study area during the study period, there was no observed relation between increasing trends in nitrogen in study area streams and increasing trends in population. With respect to other nitrogen sources, statistical results did suggest that increasing trends in nitrogen could be related to increasing trends in nitrogen from either commercial fertilizer use and/or land application of manure. Loads of ammonia, nitrite plus nitrate, and total nitrogen decreased during the study period, but some trends in nitrogen loads were part of long-term decreases since 1980. For example, ammonia loads were shown to decrease at nearly all sites over the past decade, but at selected sites, these decreasing trends were part of much longer trends since 1980. The Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers contributed the highest nitrogen loads to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as expected; however, nitrogen yields from smaller rivers had similar or higher yields than yields from the Mississippi River. Trend tests were completed for orthophosphorus at 34 sites and for total phosphorus at 52 sites. No trends were observed in abo

Dramatic increase in sea otter mortality from white sharks in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Tim; Hatfield, Brian B.; Harris, Michael D.; Ames, Jack A.

2016-01-01

Although southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) are not considered prey for white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias), sharks do nonetheless bite sea otters. We analyzed spatial and temporal trends in shark bites on sea otters in California, assessing the frequency of shark bite wounds in 1,870 carcasses collected since 1985. The proportion of stranded sea otters having shark bites has increased sharply since 2003, and white shark bites now account for >50% of recovered carcasses. The trend was most pronounced in the southern part of the range, from Estero Bay to Point Conception, where shark bite frequency has increased eightfold. Seasonal trends were also evident: most shark-bitten carcasses are recovered in late summer and fall; however, the period of elevated shark bite frequency has lengthened. The causes of these trends are unclear, but possible contributing factors include increased white shark abundance and/or changes in white shark behavior and distribution. In particular, the spatiotemporal patterns of shark-bitten sea otters match increases in pinniped populations, and the increased availability of marine mammal prey for white sharks may have led to more sharks spending more time in nearshore waters utilized by both sea otters and pinnipeds.

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Austria, Polioptro F.; Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gómez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.

Trends in local public child welfare agencies 1999–2009

PubMed Central

Wells, Rebecca; Jolles, Mónica Pérez; Chuang, Emmeline; McBeath, Bowen; Collins-Camargo, Crystal

2017-01-01

US public child welfare agencies have faced increasing pressure in the first decade of this century to demonstrate efficiency and accountability, even as the Great Recession increased pressures on millions of families and undermined human service funding. This paper reports on analyses of the two cohorts of local public child welfare agencies from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being to identify changes in their structure and practice. Local agency adaptations have included some structural integration and apparently increased use of subcontracting, including investigations. Collectively, these trends appear to be fostering a tighter coupling of local child welfare agencies with other service providers. Some of these connections may improve families’ access to a range of services. However, the increased reliance on private providers may also undermine accountability and flexibility to respond to changing needs. PMID:29491548

Trend of Occupational Injuries/Diseases in Pakistan: Index Value Analysis of Injured Employed Persons from 2001-02 to 2012-13.

PubMed

Abbas, Mohsin

2015-09-01

The present study aimed to analyze the index value trends of injured employed persons (IEPs) covered in Pakistan Labour Force Surveys from 2001-02 to 2012-13. The index value method based on reference years and reference groups was used to analyze the IEP trends in terms of different criteria such as gender, area, employment status, industry types, occupational groups, types of injury, injured body parts, and treatment received. The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was also performed to investigate the inter-relationship of different occupational variables. The values of IEP increased at the end of the studied year in industry divisions such as agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing, followed by in manufacturing and construction industry divisions. People associated with major occupations (such as skilled agricultural and fishery workers) and elementary (unskilled) occupations were found to be at an increasing risk of occupational injuries/diseases with an increasing IEP trend. Types of occupational injuries such as sprain or strain, superficial injury, and dislocation increased during the studied years. Major injured parts of body such as upper limb and lower limb found with increasing trend. Types of treatment received, including hospitalization and no treatment, were found to decrease. Increased IEP can be justified due to inadequate health care facilities, especially in rural areas by increased IEP in terms of gender, areas, received treatment, occupational groups and employment status as results found after Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. The increasing trend in the IEP% of the total employed persons due to agrarian activities shows that there is a need to improve health care setups in rural areas of Pakistan.

Trend of Occupational Injuries/Diseases in Pakistan: Index Value Analysis of Injured Employed Persons from 2001–02 to 2012–13

PubMed Central

Abbas, Mohsin

2015-01-01

Background The present study aimed to analyze the index value trends of injured employed persons (IEPs) covered in Pakistan Labour Force Surveys from 2001–02 to 2012–13. Methods The index value method based on reference years and reference groups was used to analyze the IEP trends in terms of different criteria such as gender, area, employment status, industry types, occupational groups, types of injury, injured body parts, and treatment received. The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was also performed to investigate the inter-relationship of different occupational variables. Results The values of IEP increased at the end of the studied year in industry divisions such as agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing, followed by in manufacturing and construction industry divisions. People associated with major occupations (such as skilled agricultural and fishery workers) and elementary (unskilled) occupations were found to be at an increasing risk of occupational injuries/diseases with an increasing IEP trend. Types of occupational injuries such as sprain or strain, superficial injury, and dislocation increased during the studied years. Major injured parts of body such as upper limb and lower limb found with increasing trend. Types of treatment received, including hospitalization and no treatment, were found to decrease. Increased IEP can be justified due to inadequate health care facilities, especially in rural areas by increased IEP in terms of gender, areas, received treatment, occupational groups and employment status as results found after Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. Conclusion The increasing trend in the IEP% of the total employed persons due to agrarian activities shows that there is a need to improve health care setups in rural areas of Pakistan. PMID:26929831

What is the impact of interventions that prevent fetal mortality on the increase of preterm live births in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil?

PubMed

Alencar, Gizelton Pereira; da Silva, Zilda Pereira; Santos, Patrícia Carla; Raspantini, Priscila Ribeiro; Moura, Barbara Laisa Alves; de Almeida, Marcia Furquim; do Nascimento, Felipe Parra; Rodrigues, Laura C

2015-07-23

There is a global growing trend of preterm births and a decline trend of fetal deaths. Is there an impact of the decline of fetal mortality on the increase of preterm live births in State of Sao Paulo, Brazil? The time trends were evaluated by gestational age through exponential regression analysis. Data analyzed included the fetal mortality ratio, proportion of preterm live births, fertility rate of women 35 years and over, prenatal care, mother's education, multiple births and cesarean section deliveries. A survival analysis was carried out for 2000 and 2010. Preterm births showed the highest annual increase (3.2%) in the less than 28 weeks of gestation group and fetal mortality ratio decreased (7.4%) in the same gestational age group. There was an increase of cesarean section births and it was higher in the < 28 weeks group (6.1%). There was a decreased annual trend of mothers with inadequate prenatal care (6.1%) and low education (8.8%) and an increased trend in multiple births and fertility rates of women of 35 years and over. The variables were highly correlated to which other over time. In 2000, 8.2% of all pregnancies resulted in preterm births (0.9% in fetal deaths and 7.3% in live births). In 2010, the preterm birth increased to 9.4% (0.8% were preterm fetal deaths and 8.6% preterm live births). The results suggest that 45.2% could be the maximum contribution of successful interventions to prevent a fetal death on the increase in preterm live births. This increasing trend is also related to changes of the women reproductive profile with the change of the women reproductive profile and access to prenatal care.

Escalation: How Much is Enough?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butts, Glenn

2007-01-01

Determining the escalation percentage to an estimate is often the subject of fierce debate. Cost increases are determined by dynamic relati onships between many factors, including acts of nature, interest rate s, oil prices, global commodity markets, wars, wage rates, and the ov erall health of the economy, as well as supply and demand for the required goods or services. How much escalation is enough? Are the recen t price increases temporary aberrations, or will they continue to pla gue us? This paper examines historical escalation rates, as well as i ndications of trends. Various analysis methods -- Monte Carlo simulations, neural networks, trend impact analysis, and the Delphi method -- are examined in an attempt to determine future trends.

Future Directions of Management Science and Operations Management in Business School Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Jack A.; Denton, James W.

2006-01-01

The fields of Management Science (MS) and Operations Management (OM) have co-existed in business school curricula for over a half century. This paper examines five trends that point toward a bright future for Operations Management in the business curriculum. These trends include an increasing emphasis on global competition, the growth of the…

Privatization in Higher Education: Cross-Country Analysis of Trends, Policies, Problems, and Solutions. Issue Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holzhacker, Denilde; Chornoivan, Olena; Yazilitas, Demet; Dayan-Ochir, Khishigbuyan

2009-01-01

Privatization is one of the main global trends in higher education. Aspects of privatization include the development and expansion of private institutions, increased reliance of public institutions on private funding, and the operation of the institutions in a businesslike manner. The rapid spread of privatization in higher education systems of…

Expanded stream gauging includes groundwater data and trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.; Barlow, Jeannie R.; Eddy-Miller, Cheryl; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Wheeler, Jerrod D.

2012-01-01

Population growth has increased water scarcity to the point that documenting current amounts of worldwide water resources is now as critical as any data collection in the Earth sciences. As a key element of this data collection, stream gauges yield continuous hydrologic information and document long-term trends, recording high-frequency hydrologic information over decadal to centennial time frames.

Time Trends in Reported Autism Spectrum Disorders in Israel, 1986-2005

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gal, Gilad; Abiri, Lili; Reichenberg, Abraham; Gabis, Lidia; Gross, Raz

2012-01-01

Reports indicate sharp increase in prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We aimed to assess the time trend in prevalence of ASD in Israel and describe demographic characteristics of the registered cases. We reviewed the autism registry of the Israeli Ministry of Social Affairs which includes 4,709 cases and identified 4,138 cases born…

Increased baseflow in Iowa over the second half of the 20th Century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Libra, R.D.

2003-01-01

Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC-8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual baseflow, annual minimum flow, and the annual baseflow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as baseflow than as stormflow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed streamflow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.

Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

Does active dissemination of evidence result in faster knowledge transfer than passive diffusion?: An analysis of trends of the management of pediatric asthma and croup in US emergency departments from 1995 to 2009.

PubMed

Knapp, Jane F; Simon, Stephen D; Sharma, Vidya

2015-03-01

This study aimed to compare knowledge transfer (KT) in the emergency department (ED) management of pediatric asthma and croup by measuring trends in corticosteroid use for both conditions in EDs. A retrospective, cross-sectional study of the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey data between 1995 and 2009 of corticosteroid use at ED visits for asthma or croup was conducted. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated using logistic regression. Trends over time were compared using an interaction term between disease and year and were adjusted for all other covariates in the model. We included children aged 2 to 18 years with asthma who received albuterol and were triaged emergent/urgent. Children aged between 3 months to 6 years with croup were included. The main outcome measure was the administration of corticosteroids in the ED or as a prescription at the ED visit. The corticosteroid use in asthma visits increased from 44% to 67% and from 32% to 56% for croup. After adjusting for patient and hospital factors, this trend was significant both for asthma (OR, 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.10) and croup (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12). There was no statistical difference between the 2 trends (P = 0.69). Hospital location in a metropolitan statistical area was associated with increased corticosteroid use in asthma (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.10-2.82). Factors including sex, ethnicity, insurance, or region of the country were not significantly associated with corticosteroid use. During a 15-year period, knowledge transfer by passive diffusion or active guideline dissemination resulted in similar trends of corticosteroid use for the management of pediatric asthma and croup.

Trend analysis of time-series phenology of North America derived from satellite data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, B.C.

2006-01-01

Remote sensing information has been used in studies of the seasonal dynamics (phenology) of the land surface since the 1980s. While our understanding of remote sensing phenology is still in development, it is regarded as a key to understanding land-surface processes over large areas. Phenologic metrics, including start of season, end of season, duration of season, and seasonally integrated greenness, were derived from 8 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data over North America spanning the years 1982-2003. Trend analysis was performed on annual summaries of the metrics to determine areas with increasing or decreasing growing season trends for the time period under study. Results show a trend toward earlier starts of season in limited areas of the mixed boreal forest, and a trend toward later end of season in well-defined areas of New England and southeastern Canada. Results in Saskatchewan, Canada, include a trend toward longer duration of season over a well-defined area, principally as a result of regional changes in land use practices. Changing seasonality appears to be an integrated response to a complex of factors, including climate change, but also, in many places, changes in land use practices. Copyright ?? 2006 by V. H. Winston & Son, Inc. All rights reserved.

Authorship, collaboration, and funding trends in implantology literature: analysis of five journals from 2005 to 2009.

PubMed

Barão, Valentim Adelino Ricardo; Shyamsunder, Nodesh; Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Assunção, Wirley Gonçalves; Sukotjo, Cortino

2011-02-01

To identify the trend of authorship in dental implant by exploring the prevalence of coauthored articles and to investigate the collaboration efforts, trends in funding involved in original articles, and their relationships. Articles published in the Clinical Oral Implants Research, International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Implant Dentistry, and Journal of Oral Implantology from 2005 to 2009 were reviewed. Nonoriginal articles were excluded. For each included articles, number of authors, collaboration efforts, and extramural funding were recorded. Descriptive and analytical statistics (α = 0.05), including logistic regression analysis and χ² test, were used. From a total of 2085 articles, 1503 met the inclusion criteria. Publications with 5 or more authors increased over time (P = 0.813). The amount of collaboration among different disciplines, institutions, and countries all increased. The greatest increase of collaboration was seen among institutions (P = 0.09). Nonfunding studies decreased over time (P = 0.031). There was a strong association between collaboration and funding for the manuscripts during the years studied (OR, 1.5). The number of authors per articles and collaborative studies increased over time in implant-related journals. Collaborative studies were more likely to be funded.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

PubMed

Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

2014-09-01

Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population

PubMed Central

Baril, Donald T.; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B.

2015-01-01

Objective Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. Methods This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Results Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Conclusions Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. PMID:24768362

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate.

PubMed

Omumbo, Judith A; Lyon, Bradfield; Waweru, Samuel M; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2011-01-17

Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region. Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed. An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations. This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard.

A trend analysis of surgical operations under a global payment system in Tehran, Iran (2005–2015)

PubMed Central

Goudari, Faranak Behzadi; Rashidian, Arash; Arab, Mohammad; Mahmoudi, Mahmood

2018-01-01

Background Global payment system is a first example of per-case payment system that contains 60 commonly used surgical operations for which payment is based on the average cost per case in Iran. Objective The aim of the study was to determine the amount of reduction, increase or no change in the trend of global operations. Methods In this retrospective longitudinal study, data on the 60 primary global surgery codes was gathered from Tehran Health Insurance Organization within the ten-year period of 2005–2015 separately, for each month. Out of 60 surgery codes, only acceptable data for 46 codes were available based on the insurance documents sent by medical centers. A quantitative analysis of time series through Regression Analysis Model using STATA software v.11 was performed. Results Some global surgery codes had an upward trend and some were downwards. Of N Codes, N83, N20, N28, N63, and N93 had an upward trend (p<0.05) and N32, N43, N81 and N90 showed a significant downward trend (p<0.05). Similarly, all H Codes except for H18 had a significant upward trend (p<0.000). As such, K Codes including K45, K56 and K81 had an increasing movement. S Codes also experienced both increasing and decreasing trends. However, none of the O Codes changed according to time. Other global surgical codes like C61, E07, M51, L60, J98 (p<0.000), I84 (p<0.031) and I86 (p<0.000) shown upward and downward trends. Total global surgeries trend was significantly upwards (B=24.26109, p<0.000). Conclusion The varying trend of global surgeries can partly reflect the behavior of service providers in order to increase their profits and minimize their costs. PMID:29765576

The obesity epidemic in children and adults: current evidence and research issues.

PubMed

Flegal, K M

1999-11-01

The term "epidemic" of obesity implies that obesity is a characteristic of populations, not only of individuals. The purpose of this paper is to review evidence on obesity in populations and to identify future research issues. To examine recent increases in the population prevalence of overweight or obesity, a literature search was undertaken. Trends in overweight or obesity among adults showed considerable variability internationally. Some countries, including Canada, Finland (men), New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Western Samoa showed large increases in prevalence (>5 percentage points), whereas several other countries showed smaller or no increases. Overweight is also increasing among children and adolescents, at least in some countries. It is not clear what the expected prevalence of overweight or obesity might be in the current environment, and these findings may be most usefully viewed as shifts in the distribution of a population characteristic. The reasons for these shifts are not clear. The health implications of these shifts are also not clear, in part because trends in cardiovascular risk factors do not always parallel trends in obesity. Of the classic epidemiologic triad of host, agent, and environment, the environment has often received the least attention. The economic, social, and cultural factors that influence the distribution of body mass index in a population are not well understood. Future research needs include continued monitoring of trends in obesity and in related health conditions and observational studies to examine the causes of these trends. Public health research should aim at defining realistic goals and strategies to improve health in an environment conducive to high levels of overweight and obesity.

National trends in pancreaticoduodenal trauma: interventions and outcomes.

PubMed

Ragulin-Coyne, Elizaveta; Witkowski, Elan R; Chau, Zeling; Wemple, Daniel; Ng, Sing Chau; Santry, Heena P; Shah, Shimul A; Tseng, Jennifer F

2014-03-01

Pancreaticoduodenal trauma (PDT) is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. In this study, contemporary trends were analysed using national data. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for 1998-2009 was queried for patients with PDT. Interventions including any operation (Any-Op) and pancreas-specific surgery (PSURG) were identified. Trends in treatment and outcomes were determined [complications, length of stay (LoS), mortality] for the Any-Op, PSURG and non-operative (Non-Op) groups. Analyses included chi-squared tests, Cochran-Armitage trend tests and logistic regression. A total of 27 216 patients (nationally weighted) with PDT were identified. Over time, the frequency of PDT increased by 8.3%, whereas the proportion of patients submitted to PSURG declined (from 21.7% to 19.8%; P = 0.0004) and the percentage of patients submitted to non-operative management increased (from 56.7% to 59.1%; P = 0.01). In the Non-Op group, mortality decreased from 9.7% to 8.6% (P < 0.001); morbidity and LoS remained unchanged at ∼40% and ∼12 days, respectively. In the PSURG group, mortality remained stable at ∼15%, complications increased from 50.2% to 71.8% (P < 0.0001) and LoS remained stable at ∼21 days. For all PDT patients, significant independent predictors of mortality included: the presence of combined pancreatic and duodenal injuries; penetrating trauma, and age >50 years. Having any operation (Any-Op) was associated with mortality, but PSURG was not a predictor of death. The utilization of operations for PDT has declined without affecting mortality, but operative morbidity increased significantly over the 12 years to 2009. The development of an evidence-based approach to invasive manoeuvres and an early multidisciplinary approach involving pancreatic surgeons may improve outcomes in patients with these morbid injuries. © 2013 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

National trends in pancreaticoduodenal trauma: interventions and outcomes

PubMed Central

Ragulin-Coyne, Elizaveta; Witkowski, Elan R; Chau, Zeling; Wemple, Daniel; Ng, Sing Chau; Santry, Heena P; Shah, Shimul A; Tseng, Jennifer F

2014-01-01

Objectives:Pancreaticoduodenal trauma (PDT) is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. In this study, contemporary trends were analysed using national data. Methods:The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for 1998–2009 was queried for patients with PDT. Interventions including any operation (Any-Op) and pancreas-specific surgery (PSURG) were identified. Trends in treatment and outcomes were determined [complications, length of stay (LoS), mortality] for the Any-Op, PSURG and non-operative (Non-Op) groups. Analyses included chi-squared tests, Cochran–Armitage trend tests and logistic regression. Results:A total of 27 216 patients (nationally weighted) with PDT were identified. Over time, the frequency of PDT increased by 8.3%, whereas the proportion of patients submitted to PSURG declined (from 21.7% to 19.8%; P = 0.0004) and the percentage of patients submitted to non-operative management increased (from 56.7% to 59.1%; P = 0.01). In the Non-Op group, mortality decreased from 9.7% to 8.6% (P < 0.001); morbidity and LoS remained unchanged at ∼40% and ∼12 days, respectively. In the PSURG group, mortality remained stable at ∼15%, complications increased from 50.2% to 71.8% (P < 0.0001) and LoS remained stable at ∼21 days. For all PDT patients, significant independent predictors of mortality included: the presence of combined pancreatic and duodenal injuries; penetrating trauma, and age >50 years. Having any operation (Any-Op) was associated with mortality, but PSURG was not a predictor of death. Conclusions:The utilization of operations for PDT has declined without affecting mortality, but operative morbidity increased significantly over the 12 years to 2009. The development of an evidence-based approach to invasive manoeuvres and an early multidisciplinary approach involving pancreatic surgeons may improve outcomes in patients with these morbid injuries. PMID:23869407

National Trends in the Prevalence and Treatment of Depression in Adolescents and Young Adults.

PubMed

Mojtabai, Ramin; Olfson, Mark; Han, Beth

2016-12-01

This study examined national trends in 12-month prevalence of major depressive episodes (MDEs) in adolescents and young adults overall and in different sociodemographic groups, as well as trends in depression treatment between 2005 and 2014. Data were drawn from the National Surveys on Drug Use and Health for 2005 to 2014, which are annual cross-sectional surveys of the US general population. Participants included 172 495 adolescents aged 12 to 17 and 178 755 adults aged 18 to 25. Time trends in 12-month prevalence of MDEs were examined overall and in different subgroups, as were time trends in the use of treatment services. The 12-month prevalence of MDEs increased from 8.7% in 2005 to 11.3% in 2014 in adolescents and from 8.8% to 9.6% in young adults (both P < .001). The increase was larger and statistically significant only in the age range of 12 to 20 years. The trends remained significant after adjustment for substance use disorders and sociodemographic factors. Mental health care contacts overall did not change over time; however, the use of specialty mental health providers increased in adolescents and young adults, and the use of prescription medications and inpatient hospitalizations increased in adolescents. The prevalence of depression in adolescents and young adults has increased in recent years. In the context of little change in mental health treatments, trends in prevalence translate into a growing number of young people with untreated depression. The findings call for renewed efforts to expand service capacity to best meet the mental health care needs of this age group. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Evolving trends in sinus surgery: What is the impact of balloon sinus dilation?

PubMed

Svider, Peter F; Darlin, Spencer; Bobian, Michael; Sekhsaria, Vibhav; Harvey, Richard J; Gray, Stacey T; Baredes, Soly; Folbe, Adam J; Eloy, Jean Anderson

2018-06-01

Balloon dilation (BD) represents a minimally invasive alternative to endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Although BD was introduced in 2006, distinct Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes were not available until 2011, making prior analysis of population-based trends difficult. Our objectives were to evaluate these trends and compare any changes to the use of traditional ESS techniques. Geographic trends also were evaluated. Medicare Part B national datasets encompassing procedures from 2011 to 2015 were obtained. ESS CPT codes (frontal sinusotomy, maxillary antrostomy with/without tissue removal, sphenoidotomy) and BD codes were searched to determine temporal trends in their use. Additionally, state carriers were individually evaluated for geographic trends. National use of BD increased greater than five-fold (39,193 from 7,496 among Medicare patients), whereas the use of ESS increased by only 5.9%. This increase in BD was observed across all sites, including the sphenoid (7.0x), maxillary (5.1x), and frontal (4.7x) sinuses. In the most recent year for which data was available (2015), a significantly greater portion of sinus procedures in these sites utilized BD in the South (42.1%) compared to the Northeast (30.6%), West (29.5%), and Midwest (25.3%) regions (P < 0.0001). The performance of BD has increased markedly in recent years. Because the use of ESS codes remain stable, observed BD trends are unlikely to be due simply to greater familiarity with newer CPT coding. The reasons for the striking increase in BD popularity are speculative and beyond the scope of this analysis, but further study may be needed. NA. Laryngoscope, 128:1299-1303, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Global Research Trends on Early-Life Feeding Practices and Early Childhood Caries: a Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Cheng, Ashley

2014-01-01

Objective Describe the epidemiologic literature related to early-life feeding practices and early childhood caries (ECC) with regard to publication attributes and trends in these attributes over time. Methods Systematic literature review including electronic and manual searches (in BIOSIS, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, LILACS, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and WHOLIS), covering the years 1990–2013. Attributes of publications meeting a priori inclusion criteria were abstracted and organized by global region and trends over time. Attributes included country of origin and study design of included publications and age and caries prevalence of the populations studied. Results 244 publications drawn from 196 independent study populations were included. The number of publications and the countries represented increased over time, although some world regions remained underrepresented. Most publications were cross sectional (75%); while this percentage remained fairly constant over time, the percentage of studies to account for confounding factors increased. Publications varied with respect to the caries experience and age range of children included in each study. Conclusions Publication productivity regarding feeding practices and ECC research has grown, but this growth has not been evenly distributed globally. Individual publication attributes (i.e. methods and context) can differ significantly and should be considered when interpreting and synthesizing the literature. PMID:25328911

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Trends in Fetal Medicine: A 10-Year Bibliometric Analysis of Prenatal Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Dhombres, Ferdinand; Bodenreider, Olivier

2018-01-01

The objective is to automatically identify trends in Fetal Medicine over the past 10 years through a bibliometric analysis of articles published in Prenatal Diagnosis, using text mining techniques. We processed 2,423 full-text articles published in Prenatal Diagnosis between 2006 and 2015. We extracted salient terms, calculated their frequencies over time, and established evolution profiles for terms, from which we derived falling, stable, and rising trends. We identified 618 terms with a falling trend, 2,142 stable terms, and 839 terms with a rising trend. Terms with increasing frequencies include those related to statistics and medical study design. The most recent of these terms reflect the new opportunities of next- generation sequencing. Many terms related to cytogenetics exhibit a falling trend. A bibliometric analysis based on text mining effectively supports identification of trends over time. This scalable approach is complementary to analyses based on metadata or expert opinion. PMID:29295220

Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

2012-12-01

We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

New and Recurrent Concussions in High-School Athletes Before and After Traumatic Brain Injury Laws, 2005-2016.

PubMed

Yang, Jingzhen; Comstock, R Dawn; Yi, Honggang; Harvey, Hosea H; Xun, Pengcheng

2017-12-01

To examine the trends of new and recurrent sports-related concussions in high-school athletes before and after youth sports traumatic brain injury laws. We used an interrupted time-series design and analyzed the concussion data (2005-2016) from High School Reporting Injury Online. We examined the trends of new or recurrent concussion rates among US representative high-school athletes participating in 9 sports across prelaw, immediate-postlaw, and postlaw periods by using general linear models. We defined 1 athlete exposure as attending 1 competition or practice. We included a total of 8043 reported concussions (88.7% new, 11.3% recurrent). The average annual concussion rate was 39.8 per 100 000 athlete exposures. We observed significantly increased trends of reported new and recurrent concussions from the prelaw, through immediate-postlaw, into the postlaw period. However, the recurrent concussion rate showed a significant decline 2.6 years after the laws went into effect. Football exhibited different trends compared with other boys' sports and girls' sports. Observed trends of increased concussion rates are likely attributable to increased identification and reporting. Additional research is needed to evaluate intended long-term impact of traumatic brain injury laws.

Trends and changes in prescription opioid analgesic dispensing in Canada 2005–2012: an update with a focus on recent interventions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Prescription opioid analgesic (POA) utilization has steeply increased globally, yet is far higher in established market economies than elsewhere. Canada features the world’s second-highest POA consumption rates. Following increases in POA-related harm, several POA control interventions have been implemented since 2010. Methods We examined trends and patterns in POA dispensing in Canada by province for 2005–2012, including a focus on the potential effects of interventions. Data on annual dispensing of individual POA formulations – categorized into ‘weak opioids’ and ‘strong opioids’ – from a representative sub-sample of 5,700 retail pharmacies across Canada (from IMS Brogan’s Compuscript) were converted into Defined Daily Doses (DDD), and examined intra- and inter-provincially as well as for Canada (total). Results Total POA dispensing – driven by strong opioids – increased across Canada until 2011; four provinces indicated decreases in strong opioid dispensing; seven provinces indicated decreases specifically in oxycodone dispensing, 2011–2012. The dispensing ratio weak/strong opioids decreased substantively. Major inter-provincial differences in POA dispensing levels and qualitative patterns of POA formulations dispensed persisted. Previous increasing trends in POA dispensing were reversed in select provinces 2011–2012, coinciding with POA-related interventions. Conclusions Further examinations regarding the sustained nature, drivers and consequences of the recent trend changes in POA dispensing – including possible ‘substitution effects’ for oxycodone reductions – are needed. PMID:24572005

Trends and comparison of water quality and bottom material of northeastern Arkansas streams, 1974-85, and effects of planned diversions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petersen, J.C.

1990-01-01

Water quality of several rivers in Arkansas was compared using median values at individual water quality stations. Differences were detected in several properties, including common dissolved constituents, alkalinity, nutrients, fecal coliform bacteria, trace metals, pesticides, and sediment. In bottom material, organochlorine pesticides were detected much more frequently than organophosphorus pesticides and were higher in rivers with beds of fine-gradient particles. Time trends were examined using the Seasonal Kendall test. Trends in conductance, sodium adsorption ratio, chloride, phosphorus, and ammonia were usually not detectable. Sulfate concentrations were increasing at approximately one-half of the stations studied while fecal-coliform bacteria concentrations decreased atmore » approximately one-half of the stations. The most potentially detrimental effects upon water quality resulting from surface water diversions were related to increases of common dissolved constituents. From available data, the largest of these increases would be caused by diversion from the Arkansas River. Potential effects not specifically examined include resuspension of bottom materials resulting from construction and operation of the diversion system. Use of some surface waters for artificial recharge of the alluvial aquifer may adversely affect the recharge systems or the aquifer. Possible effects include plugging of the injection well and the aquifer.« less

Climate and Ozone Response to Increased Stratospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.

2001-01-01

Stratospheric water vapor abundance affects ozone, surface climate, and stratospheric temperatures. From 30-50 km altitude, temperatures show global decreases of 3-6 K over recent decades. These may be a proxy for water vapor increases, as the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model reproduces these trends only when stratospheric water vapor is allowed to increase. Observations suggest that stratospheric water vapor is indeed increasing, however, measurements are extremely limited in either spatial coverage or duration. The model results suggest that the observed changes may be part of a global, long-term trend. Furthermore, the required water vapor change is too large to be accounted for by increased production within the stratosphere, suggesting that ongoing climate change may be altering tropospheric input. The calculated stratospheric water vapor increase contributes an additional approximately equals 24% (approximately equals 0.2 W/m(exp 2)) to the global warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases over the past two decades. Observed ozone depletion is also better reproduced when destruction due to increased water vapor is included. If the trend continues, it could increase future global warming and impede stratospheric ozone recovery.

Recruiting Trends 1994-95. A Study of Businesses, Industries, and Governmental Agencies Employing New College Graduates. 24th Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheetz, L. Patrick

This survey of employers sought to determine recruiting trends of business, industry, and government among college graduates. Questionnaires were sent to 4,154 employers of which about 13 percent, or 545, responded. Highlights of the findings include the following: (1) for a second consecutive year employers predicted increased job opportunities…

Getting Alice through the door: social science research and natural resource management

Treesearch

Alan W. Ewert

1995-01-01

A number of trends are altering the role of science in natural resource management. These trends include the growing political power of science, the recognition that most natural resource problems are extremely complex and not prone to uni-dimensional solutions, and the increasing need to integrate an understanding of the human component into the planning and decision-...

Assessment of the trends in medical use and misuse of opioid analgesics from 2004 to 2011.

PubMed

Atluri, Sairam; Sudarshan, Gururau; Manchikanti, Laxmaiah

2014-01-01

The epidemic of medical use and abuse of opioid analgesics is linked to the economic burden of opioid-related abuse and fatalities in the United States. Multiple studies have estimated the extent to which prescription opioid analgesics contribute to the national drug abuse problem; studies also assessing the trends in medical use and abuse of opioid analgesics have confirmed the relationship between increasing medical use of opioids and increasing fatalities.The available data is limited until 2002. Retrospective analysis of data from 2004 to 2011 from 2 databases: Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System (ARCOS) for opioid use data and Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) for drug misuse data. To determine the proportion of drug abuse related to opioid analgesics and the various trends in the medical use and abuse of 8 opioid analgesics commonly used to treat pain: buprenorphine, codeine, fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, methadone, morphine, and oxycodone. The data obtained from DAWN is a nationally representative sample of hospital emergency department admissions resulting from drug abuse. Main outcome measure was the identification of trends in the medical use and misuse of opioid analgesics from 2004 to 2011. From 2004 to 2011, there was an increase in the medical use of all opioids except for a 20% decrease in codeine. The abuse of all opioids including codeine increased during this period. Increases in medical use ranged from 2,318% for buprenorphine to 35% for fentanyl, including 140% for hydromorphone, 117% for oxycodone, 73% for hydrocodone, 64% for morphine, and 37% for methadone. The misuse increased 384% for buprenorphine with available data from 2006 to 2011, whereas from 2004 to 2011, it increased 438% for hydromorphone, 263% for oxycodone, 146% for morphine, 107% for hydrocodone, 104% for fentanyl, 82% for methadone, and 39% for codeine. Comparison of opioid use showed an overall increase of 1,448% from 1996 to 2011, with increases of 690% from 1996 to 2004 and 100% from 2004 to 2011. In contrast, misuse increased more dramatically: 4,680% from 1996 to 2011, with increases of 1,372% from 1996 through 2004 and 245% from 2004 to 2011. The number of patients seeking rehabilitation for substance abuse also increased 187% for opioids, whereas it increased 87% for heroin, 40% for marijuana, and decreased 7% for cocaine. Limitations of this assessment include the lack of data from 2003, lack of data available on meperidine, and that the aggregate data systems used in the study did not identify specific formulations or commercial products. The present trend of continued increase in the medical use of opioid analgesics appears to contribute to increases in misuse, resulting in multiple health consequences.

Beverage patterns and trends among school-aged children in the US, 1989-2008

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background High intake of sugar-sweetened beverages in childhood is linked to increased risk of obesity and type II diabetes later in life. Using three nationally representative surveys of dietary intake, we investigated beverage patterns and trends among US school-aged children from 1989/91 to 2007/08. Methods 3, 583 participants ages 6-11 y old were included. We reported per capita trends in beverage consumption, percent consuming, and amount per consumer for the following categories of beverages: sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB), caloric nutritional beverages (CNB) and low calorie beverages (LCB). Statistically significant differences were tested using the Student's t test in Stata 11. Results While per capita kcal contribution from total beverages remained constant over the study period, per capita consumption of SSBs increased and CNBs decreased in similar magnitude. The substantial increase in consumption of certain SSBs, such as fruit drinks and soda, high fat high sugar milk, and sports drinks, coupled with the decrease in consumption of high fat low sugar milk was responsible for this shift. The percent consuming SSBs as well as the amount per consumer increased significantly over time. Per capita intake of total milk declined, but the caloric contribution from high fat high sugar milk increased substantially. Among ethnicities, important differences in consumption trends of certain SSBs and 100% juice indicate the complexity in determining strategies for children's beverage calorie reduction. Conclusions As upward trends of SSB consumption parallel increases in childhood obesity, educational and policy interventions should be considered. PMID:21962086

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Souris River, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2000-01-01

The Souris River Basin is a 24,600-square-mile basin located in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba.  The Souris River Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group, formed in 1989 by the governments of Canada and the United States, is responsible for documenting trends in water quality in the Souris River and making recommendations for monitoring future water-quality conditions.  This report presents results of a study conducted for the Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historic trends in water quality in the Souris River and to determine efficient sampling designs for monitoring future trends.  U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada water-quality data collected during 1977-96 from four sites near the boundary crossings between Canada and the United States were included in the trend analysis. A parametric time-series model was developed for detecting trends in historic constituent concentration data.  The model can be applied to constituents that have at least 90 percent of observations above detection limits of the analyses, which, for the Souris River, includes most major ions and nutrients and many trace elements.  The model can detect complex nonmonotonic trends in concentration in the presence of complex interannual and seasonal variability in daily discharge.  A key feature of the model is its ability to handle highly irregular sampling intervals.  For example, the intervals between concentration measurements may be be as short as 10 days to as long as several months, and the number of samples in any given year can range from zero to 36. Results from the trend analysis for the Souris River indicated numerous trends in constituent concentration.  The most significant trends at the two sites located near the upstream boundary crossing between Saskatchewan and North Dakota consisted of increases in concentrations of most major ions, dissolved boron, and dissolved arsenic during 1987-91 and decreases in concentrations of the same constituents during 1992-96.  Significant trends at the two sites located near the downstream boundary crossing between North Dakota and Manitoba included increases in dissolved sodium, dissolved chloride, and total phosphorus during 1977-86, decreases in dissolved oxygen and dissolved boron and increases in total phosphorus and dissolved iron during 1987-91, and a decrease in total phosphorus during 1992-96. The time-series model also was used to determine the sensitivity of various sampling designs for monitoring future water-quality trends in the Souris River.  It was determined that at least two samples per year are required in each of three seasons--March through June, July through October, and November through February--to obtain reasonable sensitivity for detecting trends in each season.  In addition, substantial improvements occurred in sensitivity for detecting trends by adding a third sample for major ions and trace elements in March through June, adding a third sample for nutrients in July through October, and adding a third sample for nutrients, trace elements, and dissolved oxygen in November through February.

Broadening the Perspective on Gun Violence: An Examination of the Firearms Industry, 1990-2015.

PubMed

Smith, Victoria M; Siegel, Michael; Xuan, Ziming; Ross, Craig S; Galea, Sandro; Kalesan, Bindu; Fleegler, Eric; Goss, Kristin A

2017-11-01

Firearm violence injures or kills 100,000 Americans each year. This paper applies the Host-Agent-Vector-Environment model to this issue. Research on firearm violence tends to focus on two elements-the host (i.e., victims of firearm violence) and the environment (i.e., gun policies)-but little attention has been paid to the agent (the gun and ammunition) or the vector (firearm manufacturers, dealers, and the industry lobby). Using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives data, trends in firearm manufacturing were investigated from 1990 to 2015. Outcome measures included: (1) trends in domestic gun manufacturing by weapon type; (2) trends in production by firearm caliber; and (3) 2015 market share by type of firearm and company. Data were collected and analyzed in 2016. Overall domestic firearms production decreased slightly from 1996 through 2004, and then steadily increased from 1.7% in 2005 to 13.8% in 2013, when >10 million firearms were produced for the domestic market. The increase in total firearm production was driven by the increased production of pistols and rifles. Within the pistol category, increased production was attributable to an increase in higher caliber weapons. Similar trends were observed in gun purchases and recovered and traced crime guns. Trends in firearm manufacturing reveal a shift toward more-lethal weapons, and this trend is also observed in gun purchases and crime gun traces. This may reflect a societal shift in cultural practices and norms related to guns and could inform strategies to reduce firearm violence. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951-2006 using IBIS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Wei, X.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Yu, S.; Ju, W.

2010-01-01

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables [run-off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run-off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run-off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run-off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run-off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run-off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend.

Current national incidence, trends, and health care resource utilization of cleft lip-cleft palate.

PubMed

Basseri, Benjamin; Kianmahd, Benjamin D; Roostaeian, Jason; Kohan, Emil; Wasson, Kristy L; Basseri, Robert J; Bradley, James P

2011-03-01

Available reports on the epidemiology of cleft lip, cleft palate, and cleft lip-cleft palate have been numerous yet inconsistent, and have originated only from institutional or regional studies. The need for current national data and the recognition of recent trends exists. The authors examined the Kids' Inpatient Database to obtain national information on pediatric orofacial cleft discharges from 1997 to 2007. The authors examined patient and hospital characteristics to discern differences in use of care, hospital charges, type of hospital, untoward events, and other variables among various groups. A detailed investigation searching for significant trends during the 6-year study period was also conducted. Trends appreciated from 1997 to 2007 included (1) an increase in cleft operations performed at teaching hospitals compared with nonteaching hospitals (teaching increased 13.4 percent and nonteaching decreased 15.8 percent); (2) an increase in the mean overall charges (74.5 percent increase; p < 0.001) and a rate of rise higher than that of aggregate charges (60 percent; p < 0.001); and (3) a lower rate of perioperative complications in teaching hospitals from 2000 to 2007, ranging from 14 to 27 percent less than in nonteaching hospitals. The authors' data show that there is a current trend of cleft patients receiving treatment at teaching hospitals, with higher costs and decreasing complications. An understanding of such trends and disparities in resource use among various patient, hospital, and geographic settings is important for physicians and policy makers.

Modelling the contribution of changes in family life to time trends in adolescent conduct problems.

PubMed

Collishaw, Stephan; Goodman, Robert; Pickles, Andrew; Maughan, Barbara

2007-12-01

The past half-century has seen significant changes in family life, including an increase in parental divorce, increases in the numbers of lone parent and stepfamilies, changes in socioeconomic well being, and a decrease in family size. Evidence also shows substantial time trends in adolescent mental health, including a marked increase in conduct problems over the last 25 years of the 20th Century in the UK. The aim of this study was to examine how these two sets of trends may be related. To illustrate the complexity of the issues involved, we focused on three well-established family risks for conduct problems: family type, income and family size. Three community samples of adolescents from England, Scotland and Wales were compared: 10,348 16-year olds assessed in 1974 as part of the National Child Development Study, 7234 16-year olds assessed in 1986 as part of the British Cohort Study, and 860 15-year olds assessed in the 1999 British Child and Adolescent Mental Health Survey. Parents completed comparable ratings of conduct problems in each survey and provided information on family type, income and size. Findings highlight important variations in both the prevalence of these family variables and their associations with conduct problems over time, underscoring the complex conceptual issues involved in testing causes of trends in mental health.

Descriptive Analysis on the Impacts of Universal Zero-Markup Drug Policy on a Chinese Urban Tertiary Hospital

PubMed Central

Yang, Dong

2016-01-01

Background Universal Zero-Markup Drug Policy (UZMDP) mandates no price mark-ups on any drug dispensed by a healthcare institution, and covers the medicines not included in the China’s National Essential Medicine System. Five tertiary hospitals in Beijing, China implemented UZMDP in 2012. Its impacts on these hospitals are unknown. We described the effects of UZMDP on a participating hospital, Jishuitan Hospital, Beijing, China (JST). Methods This retrospective longitudinal study examined the hospital-level data of JST and city-level data of tertiary hospitals of Beijing, China (BJT) 2009–2015. Rank-sum tests and join-point regression analyses were used to assess absolute changes and differences in trends, respectively. Results In absolute terms, after the UZDMP implementation, there were increased annual patient-visits and decreased ratios of medicine-to-healthcare-charges (RMOH) in JST outpatient and inpatient services; however, in outpatient service, physician work-days decreased and physician-workload and inflation-adjusted per-visit healthcare charges increased, while the inpatient physician work-days increased and inpatient mortality-rate reduced. Interestingly, the decreasing trend in inpatient mortality-rate was neutralized after UZDMP implementation. Compared with BJT and under influence of UZDMP, JST outpatient and inpatient services both had increasing trends in annual patient-visits (annual percentage changes[APC] = 8.1% and 6.5%, respectively) and decreasing trends in RMOH (APC = -4.3% and -5.4%, respectively), while JST outpatient services had increasing trend in inflation-adjusted per-visit healthcare charges (APC = 3.4%) and JST inpatient service had decreasing trend in inflation-adjusted per-visit medicine-charges (APC = -5.2%). Conclusion Implementation of UZMDP seems to increase annual patient-visits, reduce RMOH and have different impacts on outpatient and inpatient services in a Chinese urban tertiary hospital. PMID:27627811

Descriptive Analysis on the Impacts of Universal Zero-Markup Drug Policy on a Chinese Urban Tertiary Hospital.

PubMed

Tian, Wei; Yuan, Jiangfan; Yang, Dong; Zhang, Lanjing

2016-01-01

Universal Zero-Markup Drug Policy (UZMDP) mandates no price mark-ups on any drug dispensed by a healthcare institution, and covers the medicines not included in the China's National Essential Medicine System. Five tertiary hospitals in Beijing, China implemented UZMDP in 2012. Its impacts on these hospitals are unknown. We described the effects of UZMDP on a participating hospital, Jishuitan Hospital, Beijing, China (JST). This retrospective longitudinal study examined the hospital-level data of JST and city-level data of tertiary hospitals of Beijing, China (BJT) 2009-2015. Rank-sum tests and join-point regression analyses were used to assess absolute changes and differences in trends, respectively. In absolute terms, after the UZDMP implementation, there were increased annual patient-visits and decreased ratios of medicine-to-healthcare-charges (RMOH) in JST outpatient and inpatient services; however, in outpatient service, physician work-days decreased and physician-workload and inflation-adjusted per-visit healthcare charges increased, while the inpatient physician work-days increased and inpatient mortality-rate reduced. Interestingly, the decreasing trend in inpatient mortality-rate was neutralized after UZDMP implementation. Compared with BJT and under influence of UZDMP, JST outpatient and inpatient services both had increasing trends in annual patient-visits (annual percentage changes[APC] = 8.1% and 6.5%, respectively) and decreasing trends in RMOH (APC = -4.3% and -5.4%, respectively), while JST outpatient services had increasing trend in inflation-adjusted per-visit healthcare charges (APC = 3.4%) and JST inpatient service had decreasing trend in inflation-adjusted per-visit medicine-charges (APC = -5.2%). Implementation of UZMDP seems to increase annual patient-visits, reduce RMOH and have different impacts on outpatient and inpatient services in a Chinese urban tertiary hospital.

Assessing healthcare market trends and capital needs: 1996-2000.

PubMed

Coile, R C

1995-08-01

An analysis of recent data suggests several significant trends for the next five years, including a continuation of market-based reform, increases in managed care penetration, growth of Medicare and Medicaid health maintenance organizations, and erosion of hospital profits. A common response to these trends is to create integrated delivery systems, which can require significant capital investment. The wisest capital investment strategy may be to avoid asset-based integration in favor of "virtual integration," which emphasizes coordination through patient-management agreements, provider incentives, and information systems, rather than investment in large number of facilities.

Increasing rates of self-harm among children, adolescents and young adults: a 10-year national registry study 2007-2016.

PubMed

Griffin, Eve; McMahon, Elaine; McNicholas, Fiona; Corcoran, Paul; Perry, Ivan J; Arensman, Ella

2018-05-02

Rates of hospital-treated self-harm are highest among young people. The current study examined trends in rates of self-harm among young people in Ireland over a 10-year period, as well as trends in self-harm methods. Data from the National Self-Harm Registry Ireland on presentations to hospital emergency departments (EDs) following self-harm by those aged 10-24 years during the period 2007-2016 were included. We calculated annual self-harm rates per 100,000 by age, gender and method of self-harm. Poisson regression models were used to examine trends in rates of self-harm. The average person-based rate of self-harm among 10-24-year-olds was 318 per 100,000. Peak rates were observed among 15-19-year-old females (564 per 100,000) and 20-24-year-old males (448 per 100,000). Between 2007 and 2016, rates of self-harm increased by 22%, with increases most pronounced for females and those aged 10-14 years. There were marked increases in specific methods of self-harm, including those associated with high lethality. The findings indicate that the age of onset of self-harm is decreasing. Increasing rates of self-harm, along with increases in highly lethal methods, indicate that targeted interventions in key transition stages for young people are warranted.

45 CFR 154.215 - Submission of disclosure to CMS for rate increases subject to review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...) Trend projections related to utilization, and service or unit cost: (3) Any claims assumptions related..., including a brief description of the relevant claims and non-claims expense increases reported in the rate...

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Is the virulence of HIV changing? A meta-analysis of trends in prognostic markers of HIV disease progression and transmission

PubMed Central

Herbeck, Joshua T.; Müller, Viktor; Maust, Brandon S.; Ledergerber, Bruno; Torti, Carlo; Di Giambenedetto, Simona; Gras, Luuk; Günthard, Huldrych F.; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Mullins, James I.; Gottlieb, Geoffrey S.

2013-01-01

Objective The potential for changing HIV-1 virulence has significant implications for the AIDS epidemic, including changing HIV transmission rates, rapidity of disease progression, and timing of ART. Published data to date have provided conflicting results. Design We conducted a meta-analysis of changes in baseline CD4+ T-cell counts and set point plasma viral RNA load over time in order to establish whether summary trends are consistent with changing HIV-1 virulence. Methods We searched PubMed for studies of trends in HIV-1 prognostic markers of disease progression and supplemented findings with publications referenced in epidemiological or virulence studies. We identified 12 studies of trends in baseline CD4+ T-cell counts (21 052 total individuals), and eight studies of trends in set point viral loads (10 785 total individuals), spanning the years 1984–2010. Using random-effects meta-analysis, we estimated summary effect sizes for trends in HIV-1 plasma viral loads and CD4+ T-cell counts. Results Baseline CD4+ T-cell counts showed a summary trend of decreasing cell counts [effect=−4.93 cells/µl per year, 95% confidence interval (CI) −6.53 to −3.3]. Set point viral loads showed a summary trend of increasing plasma viral RNA loads (effect=0.013 log10 copies/ml per year, 95% CI −0.001 to 0.03). The trend rates decelerated in recent years for both prognostic markers. Conclusion Our results are consistent with increased virulence of HIV-1 over the course of the epidemic. Extrapolating over the 30 years since the first description of AIDS, this represents a CD4+ T cells loss of approximately 148 cells/µl and a gain of 0.39 log10 copies/ml of viral RNA measured during early infection. These effect sizes would predict increasing rates of disease progression, and need for ART as well as increasing transmission risk. PMID:22089381

Changing donor characteristics in liver transplantation over the last 10 years in Canada.

PubMed

Sela, Nathalie; Croome, Kris P; Chandok, Natasha; Marotta, Paul; Wall, William; Hernandez-Alejandro, Roberto

2013-11-01

Liver donor characteristics have a significant impact on graft quality and, in turn, recipient outcomes. In this study, we examined deceased liver donor characteristics and donor risk index (DRI) trends in Canada over the past decade. Data were extracted from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register and Transplant Québec for the decade (2000-2010). Trends in the DRI and donor characteristics, including age, race, height, cause of death (COD), location, cold ischemia time (CIT), and type of donation, were examined. In all, 3746 transplants using deceased liver donors were analyzed. The age of donors, the proportion of black donors, the proportion of cerebrovascular accidents as the COD, and the proportion of donation after cardiac death (DCD) donors all increased over the aforementioned time period. The proportion of transplants classified geographically as local increased, and the CIT for donor livers decreased. Although many of the parameters adversely affecting the DRI increased over the study period, the DRI showed only a slightly significant trend of increasing. The increase in these parameters was counteracted by a decrease in modifiable risk factors such as the CIT and distance traveled. The 5-year recipient survival rate increased from 71.43% (1999-2001) to 75.50% (2005-2007); however, this trend was not significant. Although there was an increase in the use of older and DCD organs, recipient survival was not compromised. In conclusion, demographic trends for liver donors in Canada suggest an increase in the use of higher risk donors. However, the overall graft quality has been not compromised because of a decreasing trend for the CIT and an increase in local transplants. Better coordination and allocation practices in liver transplantation across Canada have minimized the risk of graft failure and resulted in good recipient outcomes. © 2013 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

International trends in alcohol and drug use among vehicle drivers.

PubMed

Christophersen, A S; Mørland, J; Stewart, K; Gjerde, H

2016-01-01

Trends in the use of alcohol and drugs among motor vehicle drivers in Australia, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and the United States have been reviewed. Laws, regulations, enforcement, and studies on alcohol and drugs in biological samples from motor vehicle drivers in general road traffic and fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) are discussed. Roadside surveys showed a reduction of drunk driving over time in the studied countries; however, the pattern varied within and between different countries. The reduction of alcohol use may be related to changes in road traffic laws, public information campaigns, and enforcement, including implementation of random breath testing or sobriety checkpoints. For non-alcohol drugs, the trend in general road traffic is an increase in use. However, drugs were not included in older studies; it is therefore impossible to assess the trends over longer time periods. Data from the studied countries, except Brazil, have shown a significant decrease in fatal RTCs per 100,000 inhabitants over the last decades; from 18.6 to 4.9 in Australia, 14.5 to 2.9 in Norway, 11.1 to 3.6 in Spain, and 19.3 to 10.3 in the United States. The number of alcohol-related fatal RTCs also decreased during the same time period. The proportion of fatal RTCs related to non-alcohol drugs increased, particularly for cannabis and stimulants. A general challenge when comparing alcohol and drug findings in biological samples from several countries is connected to differences in study design, particularly the time period for performing roadside surveys, biological matrix types, drugs included in the analytical program, and the cutoff limits used for evaluation of results. For RTC fatalities, the cases included are based on the police requests for legal autopsy or drug testing, which may introduce a significant selection bias. General comparisons between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries as well as a discussion of possible future trends are included. Copyright © 2016 Central Police University.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

PubMed

Crewe, Tara L; Taylor, Philip D; Lepage, Denis

2015-01-01

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Seasonal trends in hypertension in Poland: evidence from Google search engine query data.

PubMed

Płatek, Anna E; Sierdziński, Janusz; Krzowski, Bartosz; Szymański, Filip M

2018-01-01

Various conditions, including arterial hypertension, exhibit seasonal trends in their occurrence and magnitude. Those trends correspond to an interest exhibited in the number of Internet searches for the specific conditions per month. The aim of the study was to show seasonal trends in the hypertension prevalence in Poland relate to the data from the Google Trends tool. Internet search engine query data were retrieved from Google Trends from January 2008 to November 2017. Data were calculated as a monthly normalised search volume from the nine-year period. Data was presented for specific geographic regions, including Poland, the United States of America, Australia, and worldwide for the following search terms: "arterial hypertension (pol. nadciśnienie tętnicze)", "hypertension (pol. nadciśnienie)" and "hypertension medical condition". Seasonal effects were calculated using regression models and presented graphically. In Poland the search volume is the highest between November and May, while patients exhibit the least interest in arterial hypertension during summer holidays (p < 0.05). Seasonal variations are comparable in the United States of America representing a Northern hemisphere country, while in Australia (Southern hemisphere) they exhibit a contrary trend. In conclusion, arterial hypertension is more likely to occur during winter months, which correlates with increased interest in the search phrase "hypertension" in Google.

Worldwide Trends of Urinary Stone Disease Treatment Over the Last Two Decades: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Jones, Patrick; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have reported on regional or national trends of stone disease treatment. However, no article has yet examined the global trends of intervention for stone disease. A systematic review of articles from 1996 to September 2016 for all English language articles reporting on trends of surgical treatment of stone disease was performed. Authors were contacted in the case of data not being clear. If the authors did not reply, data were estimated from graphs or tables. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 21, and trends were analyzed using linear regression. Our systematic review yielded 120 articles, of which 8 were included in the initial review. This reflected outcomes from six countries with available data: United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. Overall ureteroscopy (URS) had a 251.8% increase in total number of treatments performed with the share of total treatments increasing by 17%. While the share of total treatments for percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) remained static, the share for extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and open surgery fell by 14.5% and 12%, respectively. There was significant linear regression between rising trends of total treatments year on year for URS (p < 0.001). In the last two decades, the share of total treatment for urolithiasis across the published literature has increased for URS, stable for PCNL, and decreased for lithotripsy and open surgery.

Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Variations in TWS and GWS in Michigan's Lower Peninsula and Identification of the Controlling Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahour, H.; Sultan, M.; Fathy, K.; Yellich, J. A.; Karki, S.; Wireman, M.

2017-12-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been successfully used to track changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and ground water storage (GWS) across the globe. We use GRACE RL05 monthly mascon solutions from the Center for Space Research (CSR) and outputs of the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) to investigate/extract: (1) secular trends in TWS over the entire landscape of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan throughout the GRACE operational period (2002 to 2016), (2) secular trends in GWS using the extracted TWS trends and GLDAS outputs (soil moisture, canopy water storage, surface runoff and snow water equivalent), and (3) the major natural and anthropogenic factors controlling the observed TWS and GWS variations. The extracted TWS and GWS trends were downscaled from 1º x 1º to 0.25º x 0.25º (local county scale) using logistical regression techniques. Findings include: (1) in the central and northern sections of the Lower Peninsula (43.06 °N to 45.77 °N ) the secular trends in TWS reveal two general patterns a near-steady state to modest increase in TWS (0.3 to 0.8 mm/year) for the period 2002 to 2011 (hereafter referred to as the early period [EP]), followed by an increase in TWS (9.6 to 13.8 mm/year) for the period 2012 to 2016 (hereafter referred to as the late period [LP]). (2) Similar trends for TWS were observed for the southern sections of the Lower Peninsula (41.76 °N to 43.06 °N); a near-steady to a slight increase during the EP (0.6 to 0.8 mm/year), yet a less pronounced increase was detected during the LP (4.8 to7.2 mm/year). (3) The GWS secular trends over northern and central parts of the Lower Peninsula on one hand and those for the southern sections follow the general observed patterns for the TWS throughout the EP and LP. Research is underway to accomplish the following: (1) correlate spatially and temporarily the observed variations in TWS and GWS with variations in other relevant datasets including snowfall, precipitation, land surface temperature, groundwater extraction, and groundwater levels in search for causal effects, and (2) refine our preliminary downscaling attempts by including in our logistical regression analysis as many of the relevant available variables in our analysis (e.g., precipitation, snow fall, snow water equivalent, runoff, soil moisture, and NDVI).

Trends in nutritional intakes and nutrition-related cardiovascular disease risk factors in Lebanon: the need for immediate action.

PubMed

Nasreddine, Lara; Naja, Farah A; Sibai, Abla-Mehio; Helou, Khalil; Adra, Nada; Hwalla, Nahla

2014-01-01

To examine the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and their association with dietary variables in the Lebanese population while reviewing secular trends in the population's nutritional intakes and nutrition-related CVD risk factors. Data on CVD risk factors and food consumption patterns in Lebanon were collected from scholarly papers, including individual studies and systematic review articles. Electronic databases were searched using combinations of key terms. The prevalence of obesity in Lebanon followed an alarming increasing trend over time, paralleled by an escalation in the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia. Food consumption surveys illustrate an increasing trend in energy intake and the proportion of energy derived from fat and animal products, with a concomitant decrease in carbohydrates and cereals intakes. The shift towards an atherogenic diet coupled with the alarming increase in nutrition-related cardiovascular risk factors suggest that the Lebanese population is at an increased risk for CVDs. This should alert to the importance of formulating multicomponent intervention strategies at both the individual and population levels to halt the progression of nutrition-related diseases in the country, while highlighting the need for immediate public health efforts to promote the adoption of healthy dietary habits.

Forest Area Trends in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Richard A. Birdsey; Peter L. Weaver

1987-01-01

Forest area trends in Puerto Rico from 1980 to 1985 are included in this update of earlier studies. Total forest area has increased from 279,000 ha in 1980 to 300,000 ha in 1985. Most of the new forest is growing on abandoned pasture. Secondary forest and abandoned coffee shade account for 78 percent of all forest land. Xeric scrub and active coffee shade account for...

Medical Transport of Children with Complex Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

Lerner, Carlos F.; Kelly, Robert B.; Hamilton, Leslie J.; Klitzner, Thomas S.

2012-01-01

One of the most notable trends in child health has been the increase in the number of children with special health care needs, including those with complex chronic conditions. Care of these children accounts for a growing fraction of health care resources. We examine recent developments in health care, especially with regard to medical transport and prehospital care, that have emerged to adapt to this remarkable demographic trend. One such development is the focus on care coordination, including the dissemination of the patient-centered medical home concept. In the prehospital setting, the need for greater coordination has catalyzed the development of the emergency information form. Training programs for prehospital providers now incorporate specific modules for children with complex conditions. Another notable trend is the shift to a family-centered model of care. We explore efforts toward regionalization of care, including the development of specialized pediatric transport teams, and conclude with recommendations for a research agenda. PMID:22315689

Climate impact on the tree growth, vigor and productivity in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharuk, V.; Im, S.; Petrov, I.; Dvinskaya, M.

2017-12-01

Changing climate has an impact on the Siberian taiga forests. We analyzed GPP and NPP trends, growth index, and stands mortality within the Central Siberia (48°- 75°N/80°-115°E). Considered forests included larch-dominant (Larix sibirica, L. dahurica) and "dark needle conifer" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) stands. GPP and NPP trends calculated based on the Terra/MODIS products. Growth index calculations based on dendrochronology data. Water stress analysis based on the gravimetric and microwave satellite data and MERRA-2 database. Analyzed variables included precipitation, air temperature, VPD, drought index SPEI, and root zone wetness. We found positive GPP trends within majority (>90%) of larch-dominant and DNC ranges, whereas NPP trends are positive on the <40% territory. Negative NPP trends correlated with growth index within key-sites. Siberian pine and fir growth index increase since late 1970th, turning to depression since late 1980th. Within permafrost zone larch growth correlated with sum of positive (t>+10C°) temperatures and vegetation period length. During recent years larch experience water stress in the beginning of vegetation period. Tree decline and mortality observed within DNC stands, and that phenomenon regularly coincided with zones of negative NPP trends. Mortality correlated with VPD, SPEI, and root zone moisture content. Bark beetles (including aggressive species Polygraphus proximus, similar to Dendroctonus ponderosae in American forests) attacked water-stressed trees. Geographically, mortality began on the margins of the DNC range (e.g., within the forest-steppe ecotone) and on terrain features with maximal water stress risk (narrow-shaped hilltops, convex steep south facing slopes, shallow well-drained soils). Currently, Siberian pine and fir decline observed within southern range of these species. In addition, air temperature and aridity increase promotes Siberian silkmoth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreak that occurred about one degree northward of formerly range. Observing and predicting aridity increase will lead to the replacement of Siberian pine and fir within southern range of these species with more tolerant species (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Larix spp.).

Trends in parent-reported emotional and behavioral problems among children using special education services.

PubMed

Pastor, Patricia N; Reuben, Cynthia A

2015-06-01

This report describes trends in health conditions reported by parents as the limitations leading to special education services for their children. Data are reported for children ages 6-17 (N=182,998) surveyed in households in the 2001-2012 National Health Interview Survey. Between 2001 and 2012, the overall percentage of U.S. children ages 6-17 who were receiving special education services increased from 7.2% to 8.7%. Between 2001 and 2012, the leading causes of activity limitations among children receiving special education services included emotional or behavioral problems, which increased from 36% to 43%; speech problems, which increased from 16% to 22%; and learning disability, which decreased from 41% to 27%. There were no significant trends in any of the other conditions considered as possible sources of activity limitations. Emotional and behavioral problems have become the most frequently reported source of activity limitations among children receiving special education services.

Secular trends of height, weight and BMI in young adult Brazilian military students in the 20th century.

PubMed

Avila, J A; Avila, R A; Gonçalves, E M; Barbeta, V J O; Morcillo, A M; Guerra-Junior, G

2013-01-01

Secular trends of increasing weight and height over past centuries are well documented in developed countries. However, these data are still scarce in developing countries such as Brazil. To verify the secular trends of height, weight and body mass index (BMI) of military students from Brazilian Army schools who were born between the 1920s and 1990s. A retrospective study was performed, which included a survey of data from the files of two Army schools. The sample was composed of subjects aged between 18-20 years old. The study analysed 2169 heights and 1741 weights and BMIs. During the evaluation period, height increased 7.3 cm, weight 9.8 kg and BMI 1.8 kg/m(2). The most significant gains were observed in subjects born from the 1920s to the 1940s and the 1960s to the 1970s. Secular trends of growth in military students born in the 20th century were positive in Brazil, although increases were not constant decade-by-decade.

Blood cadmium levels are associated with a decline in lung function in males

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oh, Chang-Mo; The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang; Oh, In-Hwan

Background: Cadmium exposure was found to cause a decline in lung function among the general population, but these findings were limited to smokers and gender differences were not explored. Objectives: To examine the relationship between cadmium and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) according to gender and smoking status in Korea. Methods: Cross-sectional data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed. COPD was defined by a pre-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s divided by forced vital capacity of <0.70. A logistic regression model was used to elucidate the association between blood cadmiummore » levels and COPD according to gender and smoking status. Results: Among 3861 eligible participants, 3622 were included in the analysis. The prevalence of COPD demonstrated an increasing trend in males (P for trend<0.001), but not in females (P for trend=0.67). After adjusting for covariates, a higher blood cadmium level, but within the normal range, was associated with COPD in males, including those who had never-smoked (P for trend <0.001 and P for trend=0.008). However, a higher blood cadmium level was not significantly associated with COPD in females, including those who had never smoked (P for trend=0.39 and P for trend=0.43). Conclusions: A higher blood cadmium level, within the normal range, was associated with COPD in males, including those who had never smoked. However, there was no significant association between blood cadmium levels and COPD in females. - Highlights: • Elevated blood cadmium level is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in male. • This association can be seen even in never smoked male. • However, this association is present only in male, but not in female.« less

Trends in Dietary Supplement Use among US Adults From 1999–2012

PubMed Central

Kantor, Elizabeth D.; Rehm, Colin D.; Du, Mengmeng; White, Emily; Giovannucci, Edward L.

2016-01-01

Importance Dietary supplements are commonly used by US adults; yet, little is known about recent trends in supplement use. Objective To report trends in dietary supplement use among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants Temporal trends in supplement use were evaluated using nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) collected between 1999 and 2012. Participants include non-institutionalized adults residing in the US, surveyed over 7 continuous 2-year cycles (sample size per cycle ranged from 4,863 to 6,213). Exposures Calendar time, as represented by NHANES cycle. Main Outcomes/Measures In an in-home interview, participants were queried on use of supplements in the 30 days prior. This information was used to estimate the prevalence of use within each NHANES cycle, and trends were evaluated across cycles. Results are presented for use of any supplements, use of multivitamins/multiminerals (MVMM), as defined by a product containing ≥10 vitamins and/or minerals, as well as use of individual vitamins, minerals, and non-vitamin, non-mineral supplements. Results are presented overall, and by population subgroup, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational status. All analyses are weighted to be nationally representative. Results A total of 37,958 adults were included in the study [weighted mean age, 46.4 years, 52.0% women], with an overall response rate of 74%. Overall, use of supplements remained stable between 1999 and 2012, with 52% of US adults reporting use of any supplements in 2011–2012 (p-trend:0.19). This trend varied by population subgroup. Use of MVMM decreased, with 37% reporting use of MVMM in 1999–2000 and 31% reporting use in 2011–2012 (difference: −5.7%; 95% CI: −8.6%, −2.7%; p-trend<0.001). Vitamin D supplementation from sources other than MVMM increased from 5.1% to 19% (difference: 14%; 95% CI: 12%, 17%; p-trend<0.001) and use of fish oil supplements increased from 1.3% to 12% (difference: 11%; 95% CI: 9.1%, 12%; p-trend<0.001) over the study period, while use of a number of supplements decreased. Conclusions and Relevance Among adults in the United States, overall use of dietary supplements remained stable from 1999–2012, use of MVMM decreased, and trends in use of individual supplements varied and were heterogeneous by population subgroups. PMID:27727382

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

PubMed

Condon, Robert H; Duarte, Carlos M; Pitt, Kylie A; Robinson, Kelly L; Lucas, Cathy H; Sutherland, Kelly R; Mianzan, Hermes W; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P; Brodeur, Richard D; Haddock, Steven H D; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M; Graham, William M

2013-01-15

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

Trends and educational differences in non-communicable disease risk factors in Pitkäranta, Russia, from 1992 to 2007.

PubMed

Vlasoff, Tiina; Laatikainen, Tiina; Korpelainen, Vesa; Uhanov, Mihail; Pokusajeva, Svetlana; Tossavainen, Kerttu; Vartiainen, Erkki; Puska, Pekka

2015-02-01

Mortality and morbidity from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major public health problem in Russia. The aim of the study was to examine trends and educational differences from 1992 to 2007 in NCD risk factors in Pitkäranta in the Republic of Karelia, Russia. Four cross-sectional population health surveys were carried out in the Pitkäranta region, Republic of Karelia, Russia, in 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007. An independent random sample of 1000 persons from the general population aged 25-64 years was studied in each survey round. The total number of respondents in the four surveys was 2672. The surveys included a questionnaire, physical measurements, and blood sampling, and they were carried out following standard protocols. The NCD risk factor trends generally increased in Pitkäranta during the study period with the exception of systolic blood pressure and smoking among men. Especially significant increases were observed in alcohol consumption among both sexes and in smoking among women. Educational differences and differences in trends were relatively small with the exception of a significant increase in smoking in the lowest female educational category. Trends showing an increase in some major NCD risk factors and signs of emerging socio-economic differences call for stronger attention to effective health promotion and preventive policies in Russia. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Education and disability trends of older Americans, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Tsai, Yuping

2017-09-01

Trends in disability among older Americans has declined since the 1980s. The study examines whether the trend continues to decline and whether educational disparities exist in the prevalence of functional limitations. I used the 2000-2014 National Health Interview Survey and included adults aged ≥65 years. Functional limitations was measured by three outcomes: the need for help with activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and physical function limitations. I used a set of logistic models to estimate the average annual change rate of functional limitations. I examined whether the annual rate of change differed by education, age group and sex. During 2000-2014, the annual increase rate of ADL limitations was 1.7% (P < 0.001) and was 2.0% (P < 0.001) for physical function limitations; IADL limitation did not change significantly. All subgroups experienced an increase in ADL and physical function limitations except for adults with a more than high school education. The lower-educated group had a higher proportion and a higher annual rate of increase in all outcomes. Increasing trends in chronic conditions may contribute to the increasing trend in functional limitations. The study highlighted a large educational disparity in late-life disability among older Americans. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Trends in initial management of prostate cancer in New Hampshire.

PubMed

Ingimarsson, Johann P; Celaya, Maria O; Laviolette, Michael; Rees, Judy R; Hyams, Elias S

2015-06-01

Prostate cancer management strategies are evolving with increased understanding of the disease. Specifically, there is emerging evidence that "low-risk" cancer is best treated with observation, while localized "high-risk" cancer requires aggressive curative therapy. In this study, we evaluated trends in management of prostate cancer in New Hampshire to determine adherence to evidence-based practice. From the New Hampshire State Cancer Registry, cases of clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed in 2004-2011 were identified and classified according to D'Amico criteria. Initial treatment modality was recorded as surgery, radiation therapy, expectant management, or hormone therapy. Temporal trends were assessed by Chi-square for trend. Of 6,203 clinically localized prostate cancers meeting inclusion criteria, 34, 30, and 28% were low-, intermediate-, and high-risk disease, respectively. For low-risk disease, use of expectant management (17-42%, p < 0.001) and surgery (29-39%, p < 0.001) increased, while use of radiation therapy decreased (49-19 %, p < 0.001). For intermediate-risk disease, use of surgery increased (24-50%, p < 0.001), while radiation decreased (58-34%, p < 0.001). Hormonal therapy alone was rarely used for low- and intermediate-risk disease. For high-risk patients, surgery increased (38-47%, p = 0.003) and radiation decreased (41-38%, p = 0.026), while hormonal therapy and expectant management remained stable. There are encouraging trends in the management of clinically localized prostate cancer in New Hampshire, including less aggressive treatment of low-risk cancer and increasing surgical treatment of high-risk disease.

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William M.

1988-01-01

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

Trend of some Tuberculosis Indices in Iran during 25 yr Period (1990-2014).

PubMed

Khazaei, Salman; Ayubi, Erfan; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Rafiemanesh, Hossein

2016-01-01

Investigation of tuberculosis (TB)-specific indices including prevalence of TB, mortality of TB cases excluding HIV, HIV/TB mortality, incidence of TB (all forms), HIV/TB incidence as well as case detection and related trends is a crucial step in evaluation of program performance and strategies success. Besides, estimating the number and time of change points for TB incidence can help to detect effective factors in TB control. Therefore, the current study aimed to determine the trend of aforementioned indices in Iran during a 25 yr period (1990 to 2014). Data on trend of TB in Iran was extracted from WHO regional office reports during 1990-2014. For determining the trend of TB indices, Annual Percent Changes (APC) and Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPC) was estimated using segmented regression model. AAPC (95% CI) for HIV/TB mortality and HIV/TB incidence were 11.5 (9.3, 13.6) and 14.8 (13.6, 16.1), respectively, which are sign of increasing trend during the period (P<0.05). Other indices showed significantly decreasing trend (P<0.05), except for case detection rate (P =0.803). The incidence, prevalence, and death rates of TB had shown a decreasing trend in general population, regarded as a useful indicator of achievements of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and effectiveness of interventional programs. Increasing trend of incidence and mortality of TB in HIV infected patients, needs conducting more intervention strategies in health care programs.

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotstayn, L. D.; Jeffrey, S. J.; Collier, M. A.; Dravitzki, S. M.; Hirst, A. C.; Syktus, J. I.; Wong, K. K.

2012-07-01

We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951-2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951-2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region. Methods Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed. Results An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations. Conclusion This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard. PMID:21241505

Locum tenens and telepsychiatry: trends in psychiatric care.

PubMed

Thiele, Jonathan S; Doarn, Charles R; Shore, Jay H

2015-06-01

There is a national shortage of psychiatrists, and according to nationally available data, it is projected to get worse. Locum tenens psychiatry and telepsychiatry are two ways to fill the shortages of psychiatric providers that exist in many areas in the United States. Employment and salary data in these areas can be used to illuminate current trends and anticipate future solutions to the problem of increasing demand for, and decreasing supply of, psychiatrists in the United States. A search was conducted of the literature and relevant Web sites, including PubMed, Google Scholar, and www.google.com , as well as information obtained from locum tenens and telepsychiatry organizations. There is a dearth of data on the use of locum tenens in the field of psychiatry, with little available prior to 2000 and few published studies since then. The majority of the data available are survey data from commercial entities. These data show trends toward increasing demand for psychiatry along with increasing salaries and indicate the utilization of telepsychiatry and locum tenens telepsychiatry is increasing. The published academic data that are available show that although locum tenens psychiatry is slightly inferior to routine psychiatric care, telepsychiatry is generally equivalent to face-to-face care. One can anticipate that as the national shortage of psychiatrists is expected to accelerate, use of both locum tenens and telepsychiatry may also continue to increase. Telepsychiatry offers several possible advantages, including lower cost, longer-term services, quality of care, and models that can extend psychiatric services. If current trends continue, systems that demand face-to-face psychiatry may find themselves paying higher fees for locum tenens psychiatrists, whereas others may employ psychiatrists more efficiently with telepsychiatry.

Dextromethorphan Abuse in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Bryner, Jodi K.; Wang, Uerica K.; Hui, Jenny W.; Bedodo, Merilin; MacDougall, Conan; Anderson, Ilene B.

2008-01-01

Objectives To analyze the trend of dextromethorphan abuse in California and to compare these findings with national trends. Design A 6-year retrospective review. Setting California Poison Control System (CPCS), American Association of Poison Control Centers (AAPCC), and Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) databases from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2004. Participants All dextromethorphan abuse cases reported to the CPCS, AAPCC, and DAWN. The main exposures of dextromethorphan abuse cases included date of exposure, age, acute vs long-term use, coingestants, product formulation, and clinical outcome. Main Outcome Measure The annual proportion of dextromethorphan abuse cases among all exposures reported to the CPCS, AAPCC, and DAWN databases. Results A total of 1382 CPCS cases were included in the study. A 10-fold increase in CPCS dextromethorphan abuse cases from 1999 (0.23 cases per 1000 calls) to 2004 (2.15 cases per 1000 calls) (odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.43–1.54) was identified. Of all CPCS dextromethorphan abuse cases, 74.5% were aged 9 to 17 years; the frequency of cases among this age group increased more than 15-fold during the study (from 0.11 to 1.68 cases per 1000 calls). Similar trends were seen in the AAPCC and DAWN databases. The highest frequency of dextromethorphan abuse occurred among adolescents aged 15 and 16 years. The most commonly abused product was Coricidin HBP Cough & Cold Tablets. Conclusions Our study revealed an increasing trend of dextromethorphan abuse cases reported to the CPCS that is paralleled nationally as reported to the AAPCC and DAWN. This increase was most evident in the adolescent population. PMID:17146018

Etiology, distribution, treatment modalities and complications of maxillofacial fractures

PubMed Central

Pham-Dang, Nathalie; Barthélémy, Isabelle; Orliaguet, Thierry; Artola, Alain; Mondié, Jean M.

2014-01-01

Purpose: This study evaluated the trends and factors associated with maxillofacial fractures treated from 1997 to 2007 in the Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Department of the Clermont-Ferrand University Hospital. Material and Methods: This study included 364 patients of which 82% were men and 45%, 20-29-years old. The etiology, anatomical distribution, treatment modality and complications of maxillofacial fractures were examined. Results: Overall, interpersonal violence, traffic accidents and falls were the most common mechanisms of injury. There was a decreasing trend in traffic accidents and increasing one in falls as a cause of fracture over the 11-years period of this study. Young male patients were preferentially victim of interpersonal violence and traffic accidents, while middle-aged ones were of falls and work-related accidents. Middle-aged female patients were preferentially victim of traffic accidents and interpersonal violence, while older ones were of falls. And the number of fractures per patient varied according to the mechanism of injury: low after work-related accidents and high after traffic accidents. About two-third of fractures involved the mandible. Most of these mandibular fractures were treated by osteosynthesis with or without intermaxillary fixation, with the proportion of the latter increasing over time. There were very few postoperative infections and only in mandible. Conclusions: Maxillofacial fractures predominantly occur in young men, due to interpersonal violence. There is nevertheless an increasing trend in falls as a cause of fracture, especially in female patients, consistent with the increasing trend in presentation of older people. Most maxillofacial fractures involve the mandible and there is an increasing trend in treating these fractures by osteosynthesis without intermaxillary fixation. Antibiotic prophylaxis associated with dental hygiene care can be indicated to prevent postoperative infections. Key words:Maxillofacial fractures, Epidemiology, Trends, Influencing factors, Fall, Age, Gender, Antibiotic prophylaxis. PMID:24316696

Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada).

PubMed

Spinelli, John J; Demers, Paul A; Le, Nhu D; Friesen, Melissa D; Lorenzi, Maria F; Fang, Raymond; Gallagher, Richard P

2006-09-01

A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted [1]. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends <0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP <0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend <0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend <0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend <0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Family Therapy in the Postmodern Era.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Steven D.; Sprenkle, Douglas H.

1995-01-01

Discusses theoretical and clinical developments that have accompanied family therapy's entry into the postmodern era. Clinical trends, including use of reflecting teams, self-of-the-therapist issues, increased therapist self-disclosure, and postmodern supervision are examined. Feminist critiques, health-care reform, and increasing collaboration…

Changes in ground-level PM mass concentration and column aerosol optical depth over East Asia during 2004-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nam, J.; Kim, S. W.; Park, R.; Yoon, S. C.; Sugimoto, N.; Park, J. S.; Hong, J.

2015-12-01

Multi-year records of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), ground-level particulate matter (PM) mass concentration, cloud-aerosol lidar with orthogonal polarization (CALIOP), and ground-level lidar were analyzed to investigate seasonal and annual changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and PM mass concentration over East Asia. Least mean square fit method is applied to detect the trends and their magnitudes for each selected regions and stations. Eleven-year MODIS measurements show generally increasing trends in both AOD (1.18 % yr-1) and Ångström exponent (0.98 % yr-1), especially over the east coastal industrialized region in China. Monthly variation of AOD show maximum value at April-July, which were related to the progress of summer monsoon rain band and stationary continental air mass on the northeast of Asia. Increasing trends of AOD were found for eight cites in China (0.80 % yr-1) and Seoul site, Korea (0.40 % yr-1), whereas no significant change were shown in Gosan background site (0.04 % yr-1) and decreasing trend at five background sites in Japan (-0.42 % yr-1). Contrasting to AOD trend, all fifteen sites in China (-1.28 % yr-1), Korea (-2.77 % yr-1), and Japan (-2.03 % yr-1) showed decreasing trend of PM10 mass concentration. Also, PM2.5 mass concentration at Beijing, Seoul, Rishiri, and Oki show significant decreasing trend of -1.16 % yr-1. To further discuss the opposite trend of surface PM mass concentration and column AOD, we investigate vertical aerosol profile from lidar measurements. AOD estimated for planetary boundary layer (surface~1.5 km altitude; AODPBL) from CALIOP measurements over East China show decreasing trend of -1.71 % yr-1 over the period of 2007-2014, wherever AOD estimated for free troposphere (1.5 km~5 km altitude; AODFT) show increasing trend of 2.92 % yr-1. In addition, ground-level lidar measurements in Seoul show decreasing AODPBL trend of -2.57 % yr-1, whereas, AODFT show no significant change (-0.44 % yr-1) between 2007 and 2014. This significant decreasing AODPBL and increasing AODFT trend is attributable to the relative contribution of complex processes that may include decrease of coarse particles near surface following the implementation of numerous air pollution control and changes in meteorological factors (convection, precipitation, etc.).

Trends and projections of Southern Hemisphere baroclinicity: the role of external forcing and impact on Australian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Sisson, Janice M.; Osbrough, Stacey L.

2017-05-01

Changes in the characteristics of Southern Hemisphere (SH) storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, have been related to changes in the annual cycle of SH baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability, as measured by the Phillips Criterion, have been found in the region of the climatological storm tracks; a zonal band of significant positive trends occur further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease/increase in baroclinic instability there is a decrease/increase in the growth rate of storm formation at these latitudes over this period, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. Based on model output from a multi-model ensemble (MME) of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, it is shown that these trends are the result of external radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols and land-use change. The MME is used in an analysis of variance method to separate the internal (natural) variability in the Phillips Criterion from influences associated with anomalous external radiative forcing. In all seasons, the leading externally forced mode has a significant trend and a loading pattern highly correlated with the pattern of trends in the Phillips Criterion. The covariance between the externally forced component of SH rainfall and the leading external mode strongly resembles the MME pattern of SH rainfall trends. A comparison between similar analyses of MME simulations using the second half of the twenty-first century of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show that trends in the Phillips Criterion and rainfall are projected to continue and intensify under increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected sites at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1949-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholomay, Roy C.; Davis, Linda C.; Fisher, Jason C.; Tucker, Betty J.; Raben, Flint A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, analyzed water-quality data collected from 67 aquifer wells and 7 surface-water sites at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) from 1949 through 2009. The data analyzed included major cations, anions, nutrients, trace elements, and total organic carbon. The analyses were performed to examine water-quality trends that might inform future management decisions about the number of wells to sample at the INL and the type of constituents to monitor. Water-quality trends were determined using (1) the nonparametric Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p-value, Theil-Sen slope estimator, and summary statistics for uncensored data; and (2) the Kaplan-Meier method for calculating summary statistics, Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p-value, and Akritas-Theil-Sen slope estimator for robust linear regression for censored data. Statistical analyses for chloride concentrations indicate that groundwater influenced by Big Lost River seepage has decreasing chloride trends or, in some cases, has variable chloride concentration changes that correlate with above-average and below-average periods of recharge. Analyses of trends for chloride in water samples from four sites located along the Big Lost River indicate a decreasing trend or no trend for chloride, and chloride concentrations generally are much lower at these four sites than those in the aquifer. Above-average and below-average periods of recharge also affect concentration trends for sodium, sulfate, nitrate, and a few trace elements in several wells. Analyses of trends for constituents in water from several of the wells that is mostly regionally derived groundwater generally indicate increasing trends for chloride, sodium, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations. These increases are attributed to agricultural or other anthropogenic influences on the aquifer upgradient of the INL. Statistical trends of chemical constituents from several wells near the Naval Reactors Facility may be influenced by wastewater disposal at the facility or by anthropogenic influence from the Little Lost River basin. Groundwater samples from three wells downgradient of the Power Burst Facility area show increasing trends for chloride, nitrate, sodium, and sulfate concentrations. The increases could be caused by wastewater disposal in the Power Burst Facility area. Some groundwater samples in the southwestern part of the INL and southwest of the INL show concentration trends for chloride and sodium that may be influenced by wastewater disposal. Some of the groundwater samples have decreasing trends that could be attributed to the decreasing concentrations in the wastewater from the late 1970s to 2009. The young fraction of groundwater in many of the wells is more than 20 years old, so samples collected in the early 1990s are more representative of groundwater discharged in the 1960s and 1970s, when concentrations in wastewater were much higher. Groundwater sampled in 2009 would be representative of the lower concentrations of chloride and sodium in wastewater discharged in the late 1980s. Analyses of trends for sodium in several groundwater samples from the central and southern part of the eastern Snake River aquifer show increasing trends. In most cases, however, the sodium concentrations are less than background concentrations measured in the aquifer. Many of the wells are open to larger mixed sections of the aquifer, and the increasing trends may indicate that the long history of wastewater disposal in the central part of the INL is increasing sodium concentrations in the groundwater.

An Evaluation of the Relationship among State Accountability Reading Test Scores and Levels of Language Proficiency of English Language Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, Dana Huffman

2015-01-01

Growing numbers of English Language Learners (ELLs) in the United States have become a trend in recent years; and North Carolina, including the region of this study, is no exception to this trend. As a result of the national rise in ELLs, NCLB was enacted with the goal of increasing academic achievement and closing the achievement gap between…

Is the economic crisis affecting birth outcome in Spain? Evaluation of temporal trend in underweight at birth (2003-2012).

PubMed

Varea, Carlos; Terán, José Manuel; Bernis, Cristina; Bogin, Barry; González-González, Antonio

2016-01-01

There is growing evidence of the impact of the current European economic crisis on health. In Spain, since 2008, there have been increasing levels of impoverishment and inequality, and important cuts in social services. The objective is to evaluate the impact of the economic crisis on underweight at birth in Spain. Trends in underweight at birth were examined between 2003 and 2012. Underweight at birth is defined as a singleton, term neonatal weight lesser than -2 SD from the median weight at birth for each sex estimated by the WHO Standard Growth Reference. Using data from the Statistical Bulletin of Childbirth, 2 933 485 live births born to Spanish mothers have been analysed. Descriptive analysis, seasonal decomposition analysis and crude and adjusted logistic regression including individual maternal and foetal variables as well as exogenous economic indicators have been performed. Results demonstrate a significant increase in the prevalence of underweight at birth from 2008. All maternal-foetal categories were affected, including those showing the lowest prevalence before the crisis. In the full adjusted logistic regression, year-on-year GDP per capita remains predictive on underweight at birth risk. Previous trends in maternal socio-demographic profiles and a direct impact of the crisis are discussed to explain the trends described.

Global trends in infectious diseases at the wildlife-livestock interface.

PubMed

Wiethoelter, Anke K; Beltrán-Alcrudo, Daniel; Kock, Richard; Mor, Siobhan M

2015-08-04

The role and significance of wildlife-livestock interfaces in disease ecology has largely been neglected, despite recent interest in animals as origins of emerging diseases in humans. Scoping review methods were applied to objectively assess the relative interest by the scientific community in infectious diseases at interfaces between wildlife and livestock, to characterize animal species and regions involved, as well as to identify trends over time. An extensive literature search combining wildlife, livestock, disease, and geographical search terms yielded 78,861 publications, of which 15,998 were included in the analysis. Publications dated from 1912 to 2013 and showed a continuous increasing trend, including a shift from parasitic to viral diseases over time. In particular there was a significant increase in publications on the artiodactyls-cattle and bird-poultry interface after 2002 and 2003, respectively. These trends could be traced to key disease events that stimulated public interest and research funding. Among the top 10 diseases identified by this review, the majority were zoonoses. Prominent wildlife-livestock interfaces resulted largely from interaction between phylogenetically closely related and/or sympatric species. The bird-poultry interface was the most frequently cited wildlife-livestock interface worldwide with other interfaces reflecting regional circumstances. This review provides the most comprehensive overview of research on infectious diseases at the wildlife-livestock interface to date.

Global trends in infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface

PubMed Central

Wiethoelter, Anke K.; Beltrán-Alcrudo, Daniel; Kock, Richard; Mor, Siobhan M.

2015-01-01

The role and significance of wildlife–livestock interfaces in disease ecology has largely been neglected, despite recent interest in animals as origins of emerging diseases in humans. Scoping review methods were applied to objectively assess the relative interest by the scientific community in infectious diseases at interfaces between wildlife and livestock, to characterize animal species and regions involved, as well as to identify trends over time. An extensive literature search combining wildlife, livestock, disease, and geographical search terms yielded 78,861 publications, of which 15,998 were included in the analysis. Publications dated from 1912 to 2013 and showed a continuous increasing trend, including a shift from parasitic to viral diseases over time. In particular there was a significant increase in publications on the artiodactyls–cattle and bird–poultry interface after 2002 and 2003, respectively. These trends could be traced to key disease events that stimulated public interest and research funding. Among the top 10 diseases identified by this review, the majority were zoonoses. Prominent wildlife–livestock interfaces resulted largely from interaction between phylogenetically closely related and/or sympatric species. The bird–poultry interface was the most frequently cited wildlife–livestock interface worldwide with other interfaces reflecting regional circumstances. This review provides the most comprehensive overview of research on infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface to date. PMID:26195733

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the summertime maximum temperature trends. We conduct an empirical study based on observed climate and irrigation changes to evaluate this assumption.

Tobacco product developments in the Australian market in the 4 years following plain packaging.

PubMed

Scollo, Michelle; Bayly, Megan; White, Sarah; Lindorff, Kylie; Wakefield, Melanie

2017-10-09

This paper aimed to identify continued and emerging trends in the Australian tobacco market following plain packaging implementation, over a period of substantial increases in tobacco taxes. Since 2012, our surveillance activities (including review of trade product and price lists, ingredient reports submitted by tobacco companies to government and monitoring of the retail environment) found several trends in the factory-made cigarette market. These include the continued release of extra-long and slim cigarettes and packs with bonus cigarettes, particularly in the mainstream and premium market segments; new menthol capsule products; other novel flavourings in cigarettes; filter innovations including recessed and firm filters; continued use of evocative and descriptive product names; the proliferation of the new super-value market segment; and umbrella branding, where new products are introduced within established brand families. Several similar trends were also observed within the smoking tobacco market. While not all of these trends were new to the Australian market at the time of plain packaging implementation, their continued and increased use is notable. Plain packaging legislation could be strengthened to standardise cigarette and pack size, restrict brand and variant names, and ban features such as menthol capsules and filters innovations that provide novelty value or that may provide false reassurance to smokers. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Clear-Sky UV-B trends over Northern Midlatitudes derived from TOMS Low-Reflectivity Footprint Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemke, Jerry; Chandra, Sushil; Varotsos, C.

1998-01-01

This study investigates the distribution of clear-sky ultraviolet-B (UV-B, wavelengths 290-320 nm) trends in northern midlatitudes using 1979-1991 Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 low-reflectivity (R<0.2) total ozone footprint measurements. The incorporation of essentially cloud-free ozone data from TOMS provides a direct method for separating transient cloud effects from anthropogenic and other dynamical factors present in UV-B. This study has also included both National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) microwave sounding unit channel 4 (MSU4) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 500 hPa temperature (T500) fields in our trend models to improve UV-Index (UVI) trend statistics and to investigate the effects of interannual changes in UVI caused by synoptic-scale (horizontal wavelengths 4000-8000 km) and planetary-scale (horizontal wavelengths greater than 8000 km) dynamical events. Clear-sky UVI trends in the northern midlatitudes show large increases (exceeding 10 % per decade) and distinct regional variability especially during winter-spring months which can be attributed to topography and dynamical forcing effects. In the UV-important summer-autumn months, these trends are more uniformly distributed and still statistically significant, although smaller at around +2 to +3 % per decade. Specifically, during April largest increases in midlatitude UVI are seen to extend from near the dateline eastward across North America. In June months largest UVI increases occur over the east Asian continent with values around +5 to +6 % per decade. These increases in UVI over both the Pacific and Asian continent regions persist through summer into Autumn. In the the European sector, statistically significant increases in clear-sky UVI are found over central Europe with values around +2 to +3 % per decade and +8 to +9 % per decade during summer and winter-spring months, respectively. Over the nearby Mediterranean region these seasonal trends are around +2 to +3 and +5 to +6 % per decade.

Factors associated with trends in infant and child mortality in developing countries during the 1990s.

PubMed Central

Rutstein, S. O.

2000-01-01

The 1990s have seen a remarkable decrease in mortality among infants and children in most developing countries. In some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, these declines in mortality among children have slowed and are now increasing again. Internationally comparable data derived from survey programmes, such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) programme, are available both to document the changes that have occurred in mortality and to provide insight into some of the factors that may explain these trends in mortality. The factors found in repeated DHS programmes that explain these trends fall into five categories: fertility behaviour; nutritional status, breastfeeding, and infant feeding; the use of health services by mothers and for children; environmental health conditions; and socioeconomic status. Both simple analyses and multivariate analyses of changes in these factors between surveys indicate that all factors affected the mortality trends. However, to explain trends in mortality, the variables themselves had to have changed over time. During the 1990s fertility behaviour, breastfeeding, and infant feeding have changed less than other factors and so would seem to have played a smaller role in mortality trends. This study confirms that trends in mortality during the 1990s were related to more than just a handful of variables. It would, therefore, be a mistake to concentrate policy actions on one or a few of these while forsaking others. Countries with the largest decreases in mortality have had substantial improvements in most of the factors that might be used to explain these changes. In some countries mortality has risen. In part these increases can be explained by the factors included in this study, such as deterioration in seeking medical care for children with fever. Other factors that were not measured, such as the increasing resistance of malaria to drug treatment and the increased prevalence of parental HIV/AIDS, may be contributing to the increase noted. PMID:11100620

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Trends in the Global Small Satellite Ecosystem: Implications for Science Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, J.; Lal, B.

2017-12-01

Activity in the small satellite industry has increased in the recent years. New actors and nations have joined the evolving market globally in both the private and public sector. Progress in the smallsat sector has been driven, in part, by growing capabilities and falling costs of smallsats. Advancements include the miniaturization of technology for the small satellite platform, increased data processing capabilities, the ubiquitous presence of GPS enabling location and attitude determination, improvements in ground system costs and signal processing capabilities, and the deployment of inexpensive COTS parts. The emerging trends in the state of the art for smallsat technology, paired with planned smallsat constellation missions by both private and public actors, open the opportunity for new earth and remote sensing scientific endeavors. This presentation will characterize the drivers influencing the development of smallsat technology and the industry more generally. An overview will be provided for trends in the state of the art of smallsat technology, and secondary trends that influence the smallsat sector including infrastructure, demand, the satellite launch market, and the policy environment. These trends are mapped onto current and projected Earth observation needs, as identified by academic and governmental communities, to identify those that could be fulfilled by smallsats in the near and long term. A set of notional science missions that could be enabled, based on the various drivers identified, will be presented for both the near (3 years) and farther term (10 years).

Effects of Author Contribution Disclosures and Numeric Limitations on Authorship Trends

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert J.; Neff, Kevin L.; Rethlefsen, Melissa L.; Kallmes, David F.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether editorial policies designed to eliminate gratuitous authorship (globally referred to as authorship limitation policies), including author contribution disclosures and/or numeric restrictions, have significantly affected authorship trends during a 20-year period. METHODS: We used a custom PERL-based algorithm to extract data, including number of authors, publication date, and article subtype, from articles published from January 1, 1986, through December 31, 2006, in 16 medical journals (8 with explicit authorship guidelines restricting authorship and 8 without formal authorship policies), comprising 307,190 articles. Trends in the mean number of authors per article, sorted by journal type, article subtype, and presence of authorship limitations, were determined using Sen's slope analysis and compared using analysis of variance and matched-pair analysis. Trend data were compared among the journals that had implemented 1 or both of these formal restrictive authorship policies and those that had not in order to determine their effect on authorship over time. RESULTS: The number of authors per article has been increasing among all journals at a mean ± SD rate of 0.076±0.057 authors per article per year. No significant differences in authorship rate were observed between journals with and without authorship limits before enforcement (F=1.097; P=.30). After enforcement, no significant change in authorship rates was observed (matched pair: F=0.425; P=.79). CONCLUSION: Implementation of authorship limitation policies does not slow the trend of increasing numbers of authors per article over time. PMID:20884825

Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025.

PubMed

Dikshit, Rajesh P; Yeole, B B; Nagrani, Rajini; Dhillon, P; Badwe, R; Bray, Freddie

2012-08-01

Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025. The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences between near-surface equivalent temperature and temperature trends for the Eastern United States. Equivalent temperature as an alternative measure of heat content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davey, C.A.; Pielke, R.A.; Gallo, K.P.

2006-01-01

There is currently much attention being given to the observed increase in near-surface air temperatures during the last century. The proper investigation of heating trends, however, requires that we include surface heat content to monitor this aspect of the climate system. Changes in heat content of the Earth's climate are not fully described by temperature alone. Moist enthalpy or, alternatively, equivalent temperature, is more sensitive to surface vegetation properties than is air temperature and therefore more accurately depicts surface heating trends. The microclimates evident at many surface observation sites highlight the influence of land surface characteristics on local surface heating trends. Temperature and equivalent temperature trend differences from 1982-1997 are examined for surface sites in the Eastern U.S. Overall trend differences at the surface indicate equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in the Eastern U.S. Seasonally, equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in winter and are relatively cooler in the fall. These patterns, however, vary widely from site to site, so local microclimate is very important. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wall street comes to Washington.

PubMed

2004-08-01

While health care cost trends likely will continue slowing through the end of 2004, the longer-term outlook for a sustained slowdown in underlying costs and private health insurance premiums largely depends on the strength of the economy, according to market and health policy experts at the Center for Studying Health System Change's (HSC) ninth annual Wall Street roundtable. Even as cost growth slows, insurers are practicing pricing discipline to keep premium trends ahead of cost trends to maintain profitability. Employers will continue to shift costs to workers through higher deductibles, copayments and coinsurance, but an improving economy could temper this trend as labor markets tighten. Employers remain skeptical of new health insurance products, including tiered-provider networks and consumer-driven health plans. Although growth in hospital use has slowed, the industry remains in the throes of a building boom. Increased payments to managed care plans could reinvigorate private plan participation in Medicare, but concerns about the federal budget deficit could prompt Congress to roll back rate increases.

Normal and abnormal evolution of argon metastable density in high-density plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seo, B. H.; Kim, J. H., E-mail: jhkim86@kriss.re.kr; You, S. J., E-mail: sjyou@cnu.ac.kr

2015-05-15

A controversial problem on the evolution of Ar metastable density as a function of electron density (increasing trend versus decreasing trend) was resolved by discovering the anomalous evolution of the argon metastable density with increasing electron density (discharge power), including both trends of the metastable density [Daltrini et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 92, 061504 (2008)]. Later, by virtue of an adequate physical explanation based on a simple global model, both evolutions of the metastable density were comprehensively understood as part of the abnormal evolution occurring at low- and high-density regimes, respectively, and thus the physics behind the metastable evolution hasmore » seemed to be clearly disclosed. In this study, however, a remarkable result for the metastable density behavior with increasing electron density was observed: even in the same electron density regime, there are both normal and abnormal evolutions of metastable-state density with electron density depending on the measurement position: The metastable density increases with increasing electron density at a position far from the inductively coupled plasma antenna but decreases at a position close to the antenna. The effect of electron temperature, which is spatially nonuniform in the plasma, on the electron population and depopulation processes of Argon metastable atoms with increasing electron density is a clue to understanding the results. The calculated results of the global model, including multistep ionization for the argon metastable state and measured electron temperature, are in a good agreement with the experimental results.« less

Tier-2 Optimisation for Computational Density/Diversity and Big Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fay, R. B.; Bland, J.

2014-06-01

As the number of cores on chip continues to trend upwards and new CPU architectures emerge, increasing CPU density and diversity presents multiple challenges to site administrators. These include scheduling for massively multi-core systems (potentially including Graphical Processing Units (GPU), integrated and dedicated) and Many Integrated Core (MIC)) to ensure a balanced throughput of jobs while preserving overall cluster throughput, as well as the increasing complexity of developing for these heterogeneous platforms, and the challenge in managing this more complex mix of resources. In addition, meeting data demands as both dataset sizes increase and as the rate of demand scales with increased computational power requires additional performance from the associated storage elements. In this report, we evaluate one emerging technology, Solid State Drive (SSD) caching for RAID controllers, with consideration to its potential to assist in meeting evolving demand. We also briefly consider the broader developing trends outlined above in order to identify issues that may develop and assess what actions should be taken in the immediate term to address those.

The rising prevalence of obesity: part A: impact on public health.

PubMed

Agha, Maliha; Agha, Riaz

2017-08-01

Excessive fat accumulation in the body may impair health leading to a significant long-term health consequences including the development of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and osteoarthritis as well as increasing the risk of developing certain cancers and influencing their outcomes. England has some of the worst figures and trends in obesity compared with the rest of the Europe. In the majority of European countries the trend has increased from 10% to 40% in the last 10 years, whereas in England prevalence has more than doubled. This article outlines the public health impact of rising obesity levels.

Population trends and distribution of Common Murre Uria aalge colonies in Washington, 1996-2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Susan M; Lyons, James E.

2017-01-01

Periodic assessments of population trends and changes in spatial distribution are valuable for managing marine birds and their breeding habitats, particularly when evaluating long-term response to threats such as oil spills, predation pressure, and changing ocean conditions. We evaluated recent trends in abundance and distribution of the Common Murre Uria aalge within Copalis, Quillayute Needles, and Flattery Rocks National Wildlife Refuges, which include all murre colonies in Washington except one, off-refuge, on Tatoosh Island. In 1996-2001 and 2010-2015, aerial photographic surveys were conducted during the incubation phase (mid-June through mid-July) each year. Using images from film (1996-2001) and digital (2010-2015) cameras that included all parts of each colony, we manually counted murres. We estimated population trend as annual percent change in whole-colony counts using an overdispersed Poisson regression model. Overall, numbers of murres counted at breeding colonies in Washington increased by 8.8% per year (95% CI 3.0%-14.9%) during 1996–2015. The overall statewide increase was driven by an increase at colonies in northern Washington of approximately 11% per year (95% CI 4.5%-17.8%). Despite an increasing trend, abundance remains lower than levels in the late 1970s, and the spatial distribution has changed. Colonies in southern Washington - where murres were historically the most abundant - are no longer active, or only minimally so, whereas colonies in the north - which were rarely active in the early 1970s - are now the largest. There was high variability in spatial distribution among years, a pattern that indicates a need for coordinated monitoring and movement studies throughout the California Current System to understand dispersal and colonization. Our results indicate that future management of refuge islands could protect both current and historic colony locations, given the patterns of colony dynamics and the uncertainty about long-term effects of a changing ocean ecosystem and predation pressure on the status of murres.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Continental U.S. streamflow trends from 1940 to 2009 and their relationships with watershed spatial characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.; Nelson, Stacy A. C.

2015-08-01

Changes in streamflow are an important area of ongoing research in the hydrologic sciences. To better understand spatial patterns in past changes in streamflow, we examined relationships between watershed-scale spatial characteristics and trends in streamflow. Trends in streamflow were identified by analyzing mean daily flow observations between 1940 and 2009 from 967 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. Results indicated that streamflow across the continental U.S., as a whole, increased while becoming less extreme between 1940 and 2009. However, substantial departures from the continental U.S. (CONUS) scale pattern occurred at the regional scale, including increased annual maxima, decreased annual minima, overall drying trends, and changes in streamflow variability. A subset of watersheds belonging to a reference data set exhibited significantly smaller trend magnitudes than those observed in nonreference watersheds. Boosted regression tree models were applied to examine the influence of watershed characteristics on streamflow trend magnitudes at both the CONUS and regional scale. Geographic location was found to be of particular importance at the CONUS scale while local variability in hydroclimate and topography tended to have a strong influence on regional-scale patterns in streamflow trends. This methodology facilitates detailed, data-driven analyses of how the characteristics of individual watersheds interact with large-scale hydroclimate forces to influence how changes in streamflow manifest.

Cost-effectiveness research in cancer therapy: a systematic review of literature trends, methods and the influence of funding

PubMed Central

Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Alameri, Marwah; Al-Okka, Randa

2017-01-01

Objective To perform a first-time analysis of the cost-effectiveness (CE) literature on chemotherapies, of all types, in cancer, in terms of trends and change over time, including the influence of industry funding. Design Systematic review. Setting A wide range of cancer-related research settings within healthcare, including health systems, hospitals and medical centres. Participants All literature comparative CE research of drug-based cancer therapies in the period 1986 to 2015. Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary outcomes are the literature trends in relation to journal subject category, authorship, research design, data sources, funds and consultation involvement. An additional outcome measure is the association between industry funding and study outcomes. Analysis Descriptive statistics and the χ2, Fisher exact or Somer's D tests were used to perform non-parametric statistics, with a p value of <0.05 as the statistical significance measure. Results Total 574 publications were analysed. The drug-related CE literature expands over time, with increased publishing in the healthcare sciences and services journal subject category (p<0.001). The retrospective data collection in studies increased over time (p<0.001). The usage of prospective data, however, has been decreasing (p<0.001) in relation to randomised clinical trials (RCTs), but is unchanging for non-RCT studies. The industry-sponsored CE studies have especially been increasing (p<0.001), in contrast to those sponsored by other sources. While paid consultation involvement grew throughout the years, the declaration of funding for this is relatively limited. Importantly, there is evidence that industry funding is associated with favourable result to the sponsor (p<0.001). Conclusions This analysis demonstrates clear trends in how the CE cancer research is presented to the practicing community, including in relation to journals, study designs, authorship and consultation, together with increased financial sponsorship by pharmaceutical industries, which may be more influencing study outcomes than other funding sources. PMID:28131999

Trends in precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration for rivers draining to the Gulf of Maine in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Billmire, M.

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to result in increases in total annual precipitation in northeastern North America. The response of runoff to increases in precipitation is likely to be more complex because increasing evapotranspiration (ET) could counteract increasing precipitation. This study was conducted to examine these competing trends in the historical record for 22 rivers having >70 yr of runoff data. Annual (water year) average precipitation increased in all basins, with increases ranging from 0.9 to 3.12 mm yr−1. Runoff increased in all basins with increases ranging from 0.67 to 2.58 mm yr−1. The ET was calculated by using a water balance approach in which changes in terrestrial water storage were considered negligible. ET increased in 16 basins and decreased in 6 basins. Temporal trends in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and ET were also calculated for each basin over their respective periods of record for runoff and for the consistent period (1927–2011) for the area-weighted average of the nine largest non-nested basins. From 1927 through 2011, precipitation and runoff increased at average rates of 1.6 and 1.7 mm yr−1, respectively, and ET increased slightly at a rate of 0.18 mm yr−1. For the more recent period (1970–2011), there was a positive trend in ET of 1.9 mm yr−1. The lack of a more consistent increase in ET, compared with the increases in precipitation and runoff, for the full periods of record, was unexpected, but may be explained by various factors including decreasing wind speed, increasing cloudiness, decreasing vapor pressure deficit, and patterns of forest growth.

Trends in caries experience and associated contextual factors among indigenous children.

PubMed

Ha, Diep Hong; Lalloo, Ratilal; Jamieson, Lisa M; Giang Do, Loc

2016-06-01

To assess dental caries trends in indigenous children in South Australia, 2001-2010; and contribution by area-level socioeconomic status (SES), remoteness and water fluoridation status. This study is a part of the Child Dental Health Survey (CDHS) is an ongoing national surveillance survey in Australia including children enrolled in the School Dental Services (SDS). Postcode-level adjusted mean deciduous and permanent caries experience was estimated at each year. Time trend of dental caries experience was estimated using mixed effect models. Area-level socioeconomic status, remoteness, water fluoridation status were independent variables in the models. There was a significant upward trend of dental caries experience over the 10 years. Dental caries experience of indigenous children living in low SES areas had nearly one more deciduous tooth and a half permanent tooth with caries than indigenous children living in higher SES areas. The remote postcodes showed higher levels of decay in deciduous dentition (+1.25 teeth) compared with others regions. The dental caries trend increased in South Australian indigenous children over the study period, and was associated with area-level SES and remoteness. The increasing trend in dental caries in indigenous children is important evidence to inform policies to improve oral health. © 2015 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1926-1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Kegel, Rainer; Harris, Neil R. P.

1998-04-01

Total ozone measurements have been made at Arosa, Switzerland (47°N), from 1926 through the present day, forming the longest total ozone series in the world. The record has been recently homogenized. Ozone trends are calculated to be -(2.3±0.6)% per decade for annual means (larger losses are found in winter and spring, approximately -4% per decade for trends in January, February, and March) when a simple linear change from 1970 to 1996 is assumed. In addition, total ozone trends are calculated using multiple regression models involving combinations of explanatory variables for the 11-year solar cycle, local meteorological conditions (the Mount Säntis high-altitude temperature record), stratospheric aerosol loading from volcanoes, and stratospheric chlorine loading. When the terms for the solar cycle, the stratospheric aerosol loading and the high mountain temperature record were included, the annually averaged ozone trends were found to be -(1.9±0.6)% per decade. While a statistically significant relation is found between total ozone and indices of aerosol loadings of the stratosphere, the recent decrease in total ozone cannot be accounted for by the higher average aerosol content in the second half of the century. Finally, the decrease in ozone in the stratosphere is estimated to be approximately 30% larger than that found for total ozone, when a crude estimate of the increase in tropospheric ozone is included. The acceleration observed in total ozone trends between the 1970s and the 1980s over northern midlatitudes [e.g., Harris et al., 1997] might be partially attributed to the larger increase in tropospheric ozone in the 1970s.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544

Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

PubMed

Isaevska, Elena; Manasievska, Milena; Alessi, Daniela; Mosso, Maria Luisa; Magnani, Corrado; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Pastore, Guido; Fagioli, Franca; Merletti, Franco; Maule, Milena

2017-01-01

In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP), a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years) since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19) since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC) over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011) and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011). From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5) and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6) and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6), respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Tropics and global trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gettelman, A.; Hegglin, M. I.; Son, S.-W.; Kim, J.; Fujiwara, M.; Birner, T.; Kremser, S.; Rex, M.; AñEl, J. A.; Akiyoshi, H.; Austin, J.; Bekki, S.; Braesike, P.; Brühl, C.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, M.; Dameris, M.; Dhomse, S.; Garny, H.; Hardiman, S. C.; JöCkel, P.; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J. F.; Mancini, E.; Marchand, M.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Pawson, S.; Pitari, G.; Plummer, D.; Pyle, J. A.; Rozanov, E.; Scinocca, J.; Shepherd, T. G.; Shibata, K.; Smale, D.; TeyssèDre, H.; Tian, W.

2010-01-01

The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi-model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ˜1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5-1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.

Increased river alkalinization in the Eastern U.S.

PubMed

Kaushal, Sujay S; Likens, Gene E; Utz, Ryan M; Pace, Michael L; Grese, Melissa; Yepsen, Metthea

2013-09-17

The interaction between human activities and watershed geology is accelerating long-term changes in the carbon cycle of rivers. We evaluated changes in bicarbonate alkalinity, a product of chemical weathering, and tested for long-term trends at 97 sites in the eastern United States draining over 260,000 km(2). We observed statistically significant increasing trends in alkalinity at 62 of the 97 sites, while remaining sites exhibited no significant decreasing trends. Over 50% of study sites also had statistically significant increasing trends in concentrations of calcium (another product of chemical weathering) where data were available. River alkalinization rates were significantly related to watershed carbonate lithology, acid deposition, and topography. These three variables explained ~40% of variation in river alkalinization rates. The strongest predictor of river alkalinization rates was carbonate lithology. The most rapid rates of river alkalinization occurred at sites with highest inputs of acid deposition and highest elevation. The rise of alkalinity in many rivers throughout the Eastern U.S. suggests human-accelerated chemical weathering, in addition to previously documented impacts of mining and land use. Increased river alkalinization has major environmental implications including impacts on water hardness and salinization of drinking water, alterations of air-water exchange of CO2, coastal ocean acidification, and the influence of bicarbonate availability on primary production.

Intercontinental difference in extreme weather events for the Northern Hemisphere over the past half century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A.; Tan, J.; Piao, S.

2014-12-01

Weather events that are located in the tails of a weather distribution are called weather extremes. Weather extremes, including severe drought, flooding, heat and cold waves, usually can cause greatest damage to human lives and properties, and have profound implication on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycles. There is mounting evidence suggests that the frequency of temperature and hydrological weather extremes have steadily increased over the last decades, largely due to the ongoing climate change. On the other hand, the distribution and trend of weather extremes can be regionally heterogeneous, which have not been well understood. Here we investigate the spatial distribution and temporal trend of weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over the past half century (1961-2010), with emphasis on the intercontinental comparisons. Our results suggest that warming extremes have increased significantly in East Asia and West Europe; while coldness extremes have decreased globally. Heavy precipitation extremes significantly increased in eastern Northern America, boreal Eurasia, and some parts of China; while drought events showed an increasing trend in northern China-southern Mongolia and some parts of western United States. Our results highlight the regional difference in the trend of weather extremes, which need to be incorporated in the mitigation measures.

Marijuana use during pregnancy: A comparison of trends and correlates among married and unmarried pregnant women.

PubMed

Oh, Sehun; Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Vaughn, Michael G; DiNitto, Diana M

2017-12-01

While recent evidence indicates increases in marijuana use among adult women in the United States (US), important questions remain with respect to marijuana use during pregnancy. This study examines trends and correlates of prenatal marijuana use and the effects of marijuana-specific risk/protective factors on marijuana use trends using a nationally representative sample. Data were derived from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (2005-2014), a nationally representative survey that included 3640 married and 3987 unmarried pregnant women in the United States. The significance of marijuana use trends was tested using logistic regression analyses while adjusting for complex sampling design effects and controlling for sociodemographic and marijuana-specific factors. From 2005-2014, marijuana use prevalence among unmarried pregnant women increased by 85% from 5.4% to 10.0% while the prevalence among married pregnant women remained stable (mostly under 1.5%). The increasing trend among unmarried pregnant women was associated with their lower disapproval and risk perceptions of marijuana use. In addition, past-year anxiety (AOR=3.30, 95% CI=1.87-5.82) and depression (AOR=3.85, 95% CI=2.33-6.36) diagnoses were linked with marijuana use among unmarried, but not married, pregnant women. Increased attention should be paid to reducing prenatal marijuana use among unmarried women. Findings also suggest the need to attend to unmarried pregnant women's mental health problems as well as their physical health-risk behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal variations in precipitation across the Chinese Mongolian plateau over the past half century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ruizhong; Li, Fengling; Wang, Xixi; Liu, Tingxi; Du, Dandan; Bai, Yong

2017-09-01

Precipitation, as affected by climate change, controls the growth of steppe grasses and grassland degradation/desertification in semiarid/arid regions, including the Chinese Mongolian plateau. This study examined the spatial variability and temporal trends in precipitation across the plateau in terms of four indexes: total precipitation (P), number of rainy days (Wd), number of precipitation events (N), and average precipitation intensity (Imean). Although seldom published in the literature, this information is vital for efforts to develop adaptive measures to sustain this vulnerable pasture economy. Seven hundred time series were formulated by preprocessing the data on daily precipitation over the period 1960 to 2012 at 25 weather stations scattered across the plateau. The results indicated that although the plateau was becoming drier overall, the intensity of storm events increased markedly, as indicated by decreasing trends for P, Wd and N but an increasing trend for Imean. On average, P decreased by 0.65 mm yr- 1 over the study period, while Imean increased by 0.2 mm d- 1 yr- 1. Across the plateau, the western part was becoming wetter, while the central-eastern part was becoming drier. This spatial discrepancy in the precipitation trends was particularly obvious in the winter dry season, with Imean tending to increase more rapidly in the central-eastern than western part, especially in the spring dry season. It is expected that these trends will continue, thus further challenging the already vulnerable eco-environment of the plateau.

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

Four-year trends in adiposity and its association with hypertension in serial groups of young adult university students in urban Cameroon: a time-series study.

PubMed

Choukem, Simeon-Pierre; Kengne, André-Pascal; Nguefack, Maxime-Leolein; Mboue-Djieka, Yannick; Nebongo, Daniel; Guimezap, Jackson T; Mbanya, Jean Claude

2017-05-23

Obesity is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and is growing rapidly globally including in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to assess the trend in adiposity markers in Cameroonian university students, and investigated their associations with hypertension. From 2009 to 2012, we annually measured weight, height, blood pressure, waist (WC) and hip circumferences, and calculated the body mass index (BMI) and other indices of adiposity in consecutive students aged 18 years or above, during their registration. Time-trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated, and their associations with prevalent hypertension investigated. Among the 2726 participants, the overall prevalence of obesity, overweight and obesity combined, and hypertension was 3.5%, 21.0% and 6.3% respectively. From 2009 to 2012, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased in men only, from 13.1% to 20.9% (p-trend = 0.002), whereas prevalent abdominal obesity increased in women only, from 6.5% to 11.7% (p-trend = 0.027). The BMI and the WC were independent predictors of hypertension; each kg/m 2 higher BMI was associated with 11% higher odds of hypertension, and each centimeter higher WC was associated with 9% higher odds of hypertension. Our results show that overweight and obesity are rapidly increasing in this population of young sub-Saharan African adults, and are contributing to an increasing burden of hypertension.

Exploring Academic Misconduct: Some Insights into Student Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Bob

2010-01-01

Academic research and newspaper stories suggest that academic misconduct, including plagiarism, is on the increase. This apparent increase coupled with new internet enterprises selling "pass" papers and customized research are worrying trends. Academic misconduct is deeply harmful in a number of ways by devaluing awards, frustrating…

Argentina soybean yield model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callis, S. L.; Sakamoto, C.

1984-01-01

A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate soybean yields for the country of Argentina. A meteorological data set was obtained for the country by averaging data for stations within the soybean growing area. Predictor variables for the model were derived from monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature. A trend variable was included for the years 1969 to 1978 since an increasing trend in yields due to technology was observed between these years.

Teaching of biochemistry in medical school: A well-trodden pathway?

PubMed

Mathews, Michael B; Stagnaro-Green, Alex

2008-11-01

Biochemistry and molecular biology occupy a unique place in the medical school curriculum. They are frequently studied prior to medical school and are fundamental to the teaching of biomedical sciences in undergraduate medical education. These two circumstances, and the trend toward increased integration among the disciplines, have led to reconsideration of biochemistry instruction in many medical schools. We conducted a survey to explore the evolving trends in biochemistry education. A broad diversity was evident in parameters including course content, faculty, governance, prerequisites, and teaching methods. Notably, sharp differences were apparent between freestanding biochemistry courses and those in which biochemistry is integrated with other subjects. Furthermore, the data imply a likely trend toward increased integration of biochemistry with other disciplines in the medical school curriculum. Copyright © 2008 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Trend analyses with river sediment rating curves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warrick, Jonathan A.

2015-01-01

Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies it is assumed that rating curves have a power-law form (i.e., C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) How well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data? (ii) Are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers, but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge-normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply, or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time-dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations, and sediment discharge.

Evolving practice patterns for the management of small renal masses in the USA.

PubMed

Yang, Glen; Villalta, Jacqueline D; Meng, Maxwell V; Whitson, Jared M

2012-10-01

What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Treatment options for small renal masses include radical nephrectomy (RN), partial nephrectomy (PN), ablation, and surveillance. PN provides equivalent oncological as RN for small tumours, but long-term outcomes for ablation and surveillance are poorly defined. Due to changing techniques and technology, treatment patterns for small renal masses are rapidly developing. Prior studies had analysed utilisation trends for PN and RN to 2006, revealing a relative rise in the rate of PN. However, overall treatment trends including surveillance and ablation had not been studied using a population-based cohort. It has become increasingly clear that RN is associated with greater renal and cardiovascular deterioration than nephron-sparing treatments. Thus, it is important to understand current population-based practice patterns for the treatment of small renal masses to assess whether practitioners are adhering to ever-changing principles in this field. The present study provides up-to-date treatment trends in the USA using a large population-based cohort. To describe the changing practice patterns in the management of small renal masses, including the use of surveillance and ablative techniques. All patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry treated for renal masses of ≤7 cm in diameter, from 1998 to 2008, were included for analysis. Annual trends in the use of surveillance, ablation, partial nephrectomy (PN), and radical nephrectomy (RN) were calculated. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the association of demographic and clinical characteristics with treatment method. In all, 48 148 patients from 17 registry sites with a mean age of 63.4 years were included for analysis. Between 1998 and 2008, for masses of <2 cm and 2.1-4 cm, there was a dramatic increase in the proportion of patients undergoing PN (31% vs 50%, 16% vs 33%, respectively) and ablation (1% vs 11%, 2% vs 9%, respectively). In multivariable analysis, later year of diagnosis, male gender, being married, clinically localised disease, and smaller tumours were associated with increased use of PN vs RN. Later year of diagnosis, male gender, being unmarried, smaller tumour, and the presence of bilateral masses were associated with increased use of ablation and surveillance vs RN. PN is now used in half of all patients with the smallest renal masses, and its use continues to increase over time. Ablation and surveillance are less common overall, but there is increased usage over time in select populations. © 2012 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2012 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Multi-Decadal Surface Water Dynamics in North American Tundra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carroll, Mark L.; Loboda, Tatiana V.

2017-01-01

Over the last several decades, warming in the Arctic has outpaced the already impressive increases in global mean temperatures. The impact of these increases in temperature has been observed in a multitude of ecological changes in North American tundra including changes in vegetative cover, depth of active layer, and surface water extent. The low topographic relief and continuous permafrost create an ideal environment for the formation of small water bodies - a definitive feature of tundra surface. In this study, water bodies in Nunavut territory in northern Canada were mapped using a long-term record of remotely sensed observations at 30 meters spatial resolution from the Landsat suite of instruments. The temporal trajectories of water extent between 1985 and 2015 were assessed. Over 675,000 water bodies have been identified over the 31-year study period with over 168,000 showing a significant (probability is less than 0.05) trend in surface area. Approximately 55 percent of water bodies with a significant trend were increasing in size while the remaining 45 percent were decreasing in size. The overall net trend for water bodies with a significant trend is 0.009 hectares per year per water body.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2014.

PubMed

Schumock, Glen T; Li, Edward C; Suda, Katie J; Matusiak, Linda M; Hunkler, Robert J; Vermeulen, Lee C; Hoffman, James M

2014-03-15

An analysis of trends in U.S. pharmaceutical spending is presented, including projections for drug expenditures in nonfederal hospital and clinic settings in 2014. Trends in pharmaceutical expenditures and developments likely to influence future spending, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were analyzed using data from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database. Projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and expert opinion. Total prescription sales for the 12 months ending September 2013 were approximately $326 billion, 0.7% lower than sales during the previous 12 months; pharmaceutical spending by clinics and nonfederal hospitals grew by 4.5% and 1.8%, respectively. Vaccines were among the products driving large sales increases in clinic settings, with alteplase and pegfilgrastim topping the list of fast-growing drugs by hospital expenditures. Few new drug approvals anticipated in 2014 are expected to result in major expenditures by hospitals and clinics. Expansion of access to health care and other changes related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as well as continued improvement in the U.S. economy, may drive growth in pharmaceutical spending over the next 12-24 months. Growth in U.S. prescription drug expenditures is expected to rebound in 2014, with a projected 3-5% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings this year, including a 5-7% increase in clinic spending and a 1-3% increase in hospital spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug-utilization patterns to determine their respective organization's anticipated spending in 2014.

The association between income inequality and all-cause mortality across urban communities in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Jong; Ryu, So-Yeon; Han, Mi-ah; Choi, Seong-Woo

2015-06-20

Korea has achieved considerable economic growth more rapidly than most other countries, but disparities in income level have increased. Therefore, we sought to assess the association between income inequality and mortality across Korean cities. Data on household income were obtained from the 2010-2012 Korean Community Health Survey and data on all-cause mortality and other covariates were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service. The Gini coefficient, Robin Hood index, and income share ratio between the 80th and 20th percentiles of the distribution were measured for each community. After excluding communities affected by changes in administrative districts between 2010 and 2012, a total of 157 communities and 172,398 urban residents were included in the analysis. When we graphed income inequality measures versus all-cause mortality as scatter plots, the R square values of the regression lines for GC, RHI, and 80/20 ratios relative to mortality were 0.230, 0.238, and 0.152, respectively. After adjusting for other covariates and median household income, mean all-cause mortality increased significantly with increasing GC (P for trend = 0.014) and RHI (P for trend = 0.031), and increased marginally with 80/20 ratio (P for trend = 0.067). Our data demonstrate that income inequality measures are significantly associated with all-cause mortality rate after adjustment for covariates, including median household income across urban communities in Korea.

Reports of child sexual abuse of boys and girls: Longitudinal trends over a 20-year period in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Mathews, Ben; Bromfield, Leah; Walsh, Kerryann; Cheng, Qinglu; Norman, Rosana E

2017-04-01

Although prevalence studies show girls are more frequently sexually abused than boys, a significant proportion of boys also experience child sexual abuse (CSA). The challenges for public policy are amplified for boys due to less developed public and professional sensitisation to boys' experiences, conceptions of masculinity, and less research on boys including into reporting trends and outcomes. We conducted a 20-year longitudinal time-trend analysis of government data to identify reporting trends and report outcomes for CSA in Victoria, Australia from 1993 to 2012. We stratified by child gender and reporter status. Results indicate a new sensitisation to CSA, especially for boys, although this trend was not stable. Marked change occurred in the last five years, likely influenced by major social and political events. Comparison over time revealed that from 1993 to 2012, the rate of reporting of boys increased 2.6-fold whereas there was a 1.5-fold increase for girls. Comparing genders, with regards to rate of reporting, in 1993, the sex ratio of girls to boys was 2:1, while by 2012 this ratio changed to 1.14:1. Reports by police and other mandated reporters accounted for the majority of the increase in reports over the 20-year period, suggesting unequal sensitisation. Positive report outcomes (i.e. substantiations, findings of harm, and referral to services) increased twelve-fold for boys, and nearly five-fold for girls, indicating the increased levels of reports were based in actual clinical need. Most of this increase occurred from 2009 to 2012, influenced by a compound of social, political and agency-related factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in health facility deliveries and caesarean sections by wealth quintile in Morocco between 1987 and 2012.

PubMed

Cresswell, Jenny A; Assarag, Bouchra; Meski, Fatima-Zahra; Filippi, Veronique; Ronsmans, Carine

2015-05-01

To examine trends in the utilisation of facility-based delivery care and caesareans in Morocco between 1987 and 2012, particularly among the poor, and to assess whether uptake increased at the time of introduction of policies or programmes aimed at improving access to intrapartum care. Using data from nationally representative household surveys and routine statistics, our analysis focused on whether women delivered within a facility, and whether the delivery was by caesarean; analyses were stratified by relative wealth quintile and public/private sector where possible. A segmented Poisson regression model was used to assess whether trends changed at key events. Uptake of facility-based deliveries and caesareans in Morocco has risen considerably over the past two decades, particularly among the poor. The rate of increase in facility deliveries was much faster in the poorest quintile (annual increase RR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.07-1.11) than the richest quintile (annual increase RR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.02-1.02). A similar pattern was observed for caesareans (annual increase among poorest RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07-1.19 vs. annual increase among richest RR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.06-1.10). We found no significant acceleration in trend coinciding with any of the events investigated. Morocco's success in improving uptake of facility deliveries and caesareans is likely to be the result of the synergistic effects of comprehensive demand and supply-side strategies, including a major investment in human resources and free delivery care. Equity still needs to be improved; however, the overall trend is positive. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cause-specific mortality trends in The Netherlands, 1875-1992: a formal analysis of the epidemiologic transition.

PubMed

Wolleswinkel-van den Bosch, J H; Looman, C W; Van Poppel, F W; Mackenbach, J P

1997-08-01

The objective of this study is to produce a detailed yet robust description of the epidemiologic transition in The Netherlands. National mortality data on sex, age, cause of death and calendar year (1875-1992) were extracted from official publications. For the entire period, 27 causes of death could be distinguished, while 65 causes (nested within the 27) could be studied from 1901 onwards. Cluster analysis was used to determine groups of causes of death with similar trend curves over a period of time with respect to age- and sex-standardized mortality rates. With respect to the 27 causes, three important clusters were found: (1) infectious diseases which declined rapidly in the late 19th century (e.g. typhoid fever), (2) infectious diseases which showed a less precipitous decline (e.g. respiratory tuberculosis), and (3) non-infectious diseases which showed an increasing trend during most of the period 1875-1992 (e.g. cancer). The 65 causes provided more detail. Seven important clusters were found: four consisted mainly of infectious diseases, including a new cluster that declined rapidly after the Second World War (WW2) (e.g. acute bronchitis/influenza) and a new cluster showing an increasing trend in the 1920s and 1930s before declining in the years thereafter (e.g. appendicitis). Three clusters mainly contained non-infectious diseases, including a new one that declined from 1900 onwards (e.g. cancer of the stomach) and a new one that increased until WW2 but declined thereafter (e.g. chronic rheumatic heart disease). The results suggest that the conventional interpretation of the epidemiologic transition, which assumes a uniform decline of infectious diseases and a uniform increase of non-infectious diseases, needs to be modified.

Trends in risk factors, patterns and causes in hospitalized strokes over 25 years: The Lausanne Stroke Registry.

PubMed

Carrera, Emmanuel; Maeder-Ingvar, Malin; Rossetti, Andrea O; Devuyst, Gérald; Bogousslavsky, Julien

2007-01-01

The Lausanne Stroke Registry includes, from 1979, all patients admitted to the department of Neurology of the Lausanne University Hospital with the diagnosis of first clinical stroke. Using the Lausanne Stroke Registry, we aimed to determine trends in risk factors, causes, localization and inhospital mortality over 25 years in hospitalized stroke patients. We assessed temporal trends in stroke patients characteristics through the following consecutive periods: 1979-1987, 1988-1995 and 1996-2003. Age-adjusted cardiovascular risk factors, etiologies, stroke localizations and mortality were compared between the three periods. Overall, 5,759 patients were included. Age was significantly different among the analyzed periods (p < 0.001), showing an increment in older patients throughout time. After adjustment for age, hypercholesterolemia increased (p < 0.001), as opposed to cigarette smoking (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.001) and diabetes and hyperglycemia (p < 0.001). In patients with ischemic strokes, there were significant changes in the distribution of causes with an increase in cardioembolic strokes (p < 0.001), and in the localization of strokes with an increase in entire middle cerebral artery (MCA) and posterior circulation strokes together with a decrease in superficial middle cerebral artery stroke (p < 0.001). In patients with hemorrhagic strokes, the thalamic localizations increased, whereas the proportion of striatocapsular hemorrhage decreased (p = 0.022). Except in the older patient group, the mortality rate decreased. This study shows major trends in the characteristics of stroke patients admitted to a department of neurology over a 25-year time span, which may result from referral biases, development of acute stroke management and possibly from the evolution of cerebrovascular risk factors.

Little evidence for significant increases of methane emissions from oil and gas operations in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, X.; Tans, P. P.; Sweeney, C.; Andrews, A. E.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Lang, P. M.; Crotwell, M.; Miller, B.; Kofler, J.; Newberger, T.; McKain, K.; Wolter, S.; Montzka, S. A.

2016-12-01

Recent studies on whether methane (CH4) emissions from oil and natural gas (ONG) operations in the U.S. have increased are still inconclusive. To provide observational evidence we carefully analyzed the in-situ CH4 measurements from the NOAA/ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) for the best estimates of CH4 trends for 2006-2016. Methane data from more than 20 surface and aircraft sites across the U.S. were included in this study. Variations of sampling frequencies in different seasons were taken into account for accurate trend detection. Correlations among measurements within short sampling intervals were also considered for uncertainty estimates. We found that most of our sites had similar CH4 trends of 6 ppb/yr, which was comparable with the recent global background CH4 trend. Substantially higher growth rates were found at the Southern Great Plain site in Oklahoma (SGP, downwind of the Eagle Ford, Barnett Shale and Woodford ONG fields) and the Dahlen sites in North Dakota (DND, downwind of the Bakken ONG field), which indicated influences from regional ONG activities. Ethane (C2H6) measurements from SGP (C2H6 measurements were not available from DND) and propane (C3H8) measurements from both SPG and DND exhibited significant increasing trends, while trends at other sites were either non-significant (trend < 2*S.D.) or only marginally significant. Linear correlations were well identified for surface C3H8 and CH4 enhancements at these two sites, relative to observations at higher altitudes. However, by applying the observed enhancement ratios of surface C3H8 /CH4 and the C3H8 trends (as indicator for ONG emissions) on CH4 trend estimates, we would infer much larger surface CH4 trends than what we actually observed at these two sites. This discrepancy suggests that using enhancement ratios of C3H8 /CH4 is not likely a reliable approach to compute CH4 emission trends.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

PubMed

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R; Brownstein, John S; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-19

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Saurav; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Cohn, Emily; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2017-01-01

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include: applicability to a wide range of diseases and ability to capture disease dynamics, including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China, and India. We demonstrate that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully capture the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that, when news coverage is uniform, efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations. PMID:28102319

Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

2018-01-01

Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

Melanoma epidemic across the millennium: time trends of cutaneous melanoma in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) from 1997 to 2004.

PubMed

Pellacani, G; Lo Scocco, G; Vinceti, M; Albertini, G; Raccagni, A Ascari; Baldassari, L; Catrani, S; Donelli, S; Ghetti, P; Lanzoni, A; Leardini, M; Reggiani, M; Santini, M; Stanganelli, I; Virgili, A; Seidenari, S

2008-02-01

After a rapid increase in malignant melanoma (MM) incidence in the last decades, trends of the melanoma epidemic in the recent years seemed not homogeneous. This study aimed at the monitoring of some epidemiological data referring to melanoma in a region of the Northern Italy during the past 8-year period. All cases of melanoma, including also in situ lesions, diagnosed in Emilia-Romagna and San Marino State, with the exclusion of Cesena province, from 1997 to 2004 were recorded and the incidence of melanoma, adjusted for the European standard population by the direct method, was calculated. Mean standardized incidence was 9.7 for invasive MMs and 11.9, considering also in situ ones, showing an ascending trend with an increment of 3.3 new incident cases in 2004 compared with 1997. No differences in age distribution, gender and site were reported. Concerning tumour thickness, although a general ascending trend in all subtypes, only thin melanoma incidence significantly increased over the study period. Contrary to data from Northern European countries, melanoma incidence still showed an ascending trend in the Italian population of Emilia Romagna.

Increasing trends of acute myocardial infarction in Spain: the MONICA-Catalonia Study.

PubMed

Sans, Susana; Puigdefábregas, Ana; Paluzie, Guillermo; Monterde, David; Balaguer-Vintró, Ignacio

2005-03-01

To assess coronary mortality and morbidity secular trends in Spain. Acute coronary events occurring in both sexes at ages 35-74 years between 1985 and 1997, were monitored in a geographical area of Catalonia, through a population-based registry. Information was collected from annual discharge lists of 78 hospitals and from death certificates, and validated following the methods and quality control of the World Health Organization MONItoring Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease Project (MONICA). Registration included 19 119 valid events (14 221 in men, 4898 in women) of which 30% were fatal and 41% were definite acute myocardial infarctions. Average attack rates were 315 per 100 000 (95% CI 300-329) and 80 (75-86) in men and women, respectively. Incidence (first-ever event) rates were 209 (194-224) and 56 (52-60) per 100 000. Attack rates increased annually by 2.1% (0.3-4.1) and 1.8% (-0.9 to +4.6). Average 28-day case fatality was 46% (44-47) in men decreasing significantly by 1.4 and 53% (51-55) in women with no change. Fatal trends remained stable. Nationwide morbidity statistics showed similar trends. Acute coronary syndromes are rising in Spanish men.

Impacts of ethanol fuel level on emissions of regulated and unregulated pollutants from a fleet of gasoline light-duty vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karavalakis, Georgios; Durbin, Thomas; Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.

The study investigated the impact of ethanol blends on criteria emissions (THC, NMHC, CO, NOx), greenhouse gas (CO2), and a suite of unregulated pollutants in a fleet of gasoline-powered light-duty vehicles. The vehicles ranged in model year from 1984 to 2007 and included one Flexible Fuel Vehicle (FFV). Emission and fuel consumption measurements were performed in duplicate or triplicate over the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycle using a chassis dynamometer for four fuels in each of seven vehicles. The test fuels included a CARB phase 2 certification fuel with 11% MTBE content, a CARB phase 3 certification fuel withmore » a 5.7% ethanol content, and E10, E20, E50, and E85 fuels. In most cases, THC and NMHC emissions were lower with the ethanol blends, while the use of E85 resulted in increases of THC and NMHC for the FFV. CO emissions were lower with ethanol blends for all vehicles and significantly decreased for earlier model vehicles. Results for NOx emissions were mixed, with some older vehicles showing increases with increasing ethanol level, while other vehicles showed either no impact or a slight, but not statistically significant, decrease. CO2 emissions did not show any significant trends. Fuel economy showed decreasing trends with increasing ethanol content in later model vehicles. There was also a consistent trend of increasing acetaldehyde emissions with increasing ethanol level, but other carbonyls did not show strong trends. The use of E85 resulted in significantly higher formaldehyde and acetaldehyde emissions than the specification fuels or other ethanol blends. BTEX and 1,3-butadiene emissions were lower with ethanol blends compared to the CARB 2 fuel, and were almost undetectable from the E85 fuel. The largest contribution to total carbonyls and other toxics was during the cold-start phase of FTP.« less

Analyzing Recent Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009

PubMed Central

Saidi, Olfa; Ben Mansour, Nadia; O’Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Critchley, Julia A.; Romdhane, Habiba Ben

2013-01-01

Background In Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing. Objective To explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009. Methods Data Sources: Published and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys. Analysis Data were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity). Results CHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (−0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75). Conclusions Recent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive. PMID:23658808

Influence of headache frequency on clinical signs and symptoms of TMD in subjects with temple headache and TMD pain

PubMed Central

Anderson, Gary C.; John, Mike T.; Ohrbach, Richard; Nixdorf, Donald R.; Schiffman, Eric L.; Truelove, Edmond S.; List, Thomas

2011-01-01

The relationship of the frequency of temple headache to signs and symptoms of temporomandibular disorders (TMD) was investigated in a subset of a larger convenience sample of community TMD cases. The study sample included: 86 painful TMD, non-headache subjects; 309 painful TMD subjects with varied frequency of temple headaches; and 149 subjects without painful TMD or headache for descriptive comparison. Painful TMD included Research Diagnostic Criteria (RDC) diagnoses of myofascial pain, TMJ arthralgia and TMJ osteoarthritis. Mild to moderate intensity temple headaches were classified by frequency using criteria based on the ICHD-II classification of TTH. Outcomes included TMD signs and symptoms (pain duration, pain intensity, number of painful masticatory sites on palpation, mandibular range of motion), PPTs and temple headache resulting from masticatory provocation tests. Trend analyses across the painful TMD groups showed a substantial trend for aggravation of all of the TMD signs and symptoms associated with increased frequency of the temple headaches. In addition, increased headache frequency showed significant trends associated with reduced PPTs and reported temple headache with masticatory provocation tests. In conclusion, these findings suggest that these headaches may be TMD-related, as well as a possible role for peripheral and central sensitization in TMD patients. PMID:21196079

Simulating Thermal Cycling and Isothermal Deformation Response of Polycrystalline NiTi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manchiraju, Sivom; Gaydosh, Darrell J.; Noebe, Ronald D.; Anderson, Peter M.

2011-01-01

A microstructure-based FEM model that couples crystal plasticity, crystallographic descriptions of the B2-B19' martensitic phase transformation, and anisotropic elasticity is used to simulate thermal cycling and isothermal deformation in polycrystalline NiTi (49.9at% Ni). The model inputs include anisotropic elastic properties, polycrystalline texture, DSC data, and a subset of isothermal deformation and load-biased thermal cycling data. A key experimental trend is captured.namely, the transformation strain during thermal cycling is predicted to reach a peak with increasing bias stress, due to the onset of plasticity at larger bias stress. Plasticity induces internal stress that affects both thermal cycling and isothermal deformation responses. Affected thermal cycling features include hysteretic width, two-way shape memory effect, and evolution of texture with increasing bias stress. Affected isothermal deformation features include increased hardening during loading and retained martensite after unloading. These trends are not captured by microstructural models that lack plasticity, nor are they all captured in a robust manner by phenomenological approaches. Despite this advance in microstructural modeling, quantitative differences exist, such as underprediction of open loop strain during thermal cycling.

Patterns and Correlates of Polytobacco Use in the United States over a Decade: NSDUH 2002–2011

PubMed Central

Fix, Brian V.; O’Connor, Richard J.; Vogl, Lisa; Smith, Danielle; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Conway, Kevin P.; Ambrose, Bridget; Yang, Ling; Hyland, Andrew

2014-01-01

Background Few studies have examined the patterns and correlates of polytobacco use among a large, nationally representative population over an extended period of time. Methods This study examined 10 years of data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) to establish time trends and correlates for exclusive and mixed use of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco (SLT), cigars, and pipes. Results Results show that rates of polytobacco use were essentially unchanged from 2002–2011 (8.7% to 7.4%), though some product combinations, including cigarettes and SLT, cigars and SLT, and use of more than two products have increased. In tobacco users under age 26, the proportion of polytobacco use increased, even as overall tobacco use declined. The factors associated with polytobacco use among tobacco users included sex, income, education, risk taking/seeking behaviors, and outward indicators of ‘risk-liability’. Conclusions Findings provide a snapshot of trends of single and polytobacco product use as well as trends in combinations of product use. Longitudinal studies are needed to examine the sequence of individual patterns of tobacco product use and to identify whether polytobacco use results in greater nicotine dependence, increased exposure to harmful and potentially harmful constituents and/or greater risk of tobacco related disease. PMID:24457900

Industry trends point toward bright future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kliewer, G.

Examination of the trends for the past 5 yr shows increasing soundness in the international petroleum industry. U.S. figures alone have a mixed complexion, with imports, exports, crude prices, and demand rising steadily. U.S. crude oil production, however, increased through 1970, but leveled off last year. Decreases occurred during 1971 in the number of rigs working, gas producers, and wildcats drilled. Trends in Free World drilling and production (outside the U.S. and Canada) have been upward and are expected to continue expanding generally through the year 2000. World petroleum demand, the key to this activity, has risen steadily, and allmore » forecasts predict increases of around 3.5% a yr for the next 15 yr. Included in this outlook is a booming natural gas use, which comes as a result of worldwide emphasis on clean-burning, nonpolluting fuels. Competition among energy sources may not materialize. Instead, a mix of all available energy sources will be needed to meet the demand. Tabular data provide complete details.« less

Selenium isotope evidence for progressive oxidation of the Neoproterozoic biosphere

PubMed Central

Pogge von Strandmann, Philip A. E.; Stüeken, Eva E.; Elliott, Tim; Poulton, Simon W.; Dehler, Carol M.; Canfield, Don E.; Catling, David C.

2015-01-01

Neoproterozoic (1,000–542 Myr ago) Earth experienced profound environmental change, including ‘snowball' glaciations, oxygenation and the appearance of animals. However, an integrated understanding of these events remains elusive, partly because proxies that track subtle oceanic or atmospheric redox trends are lacking. Here we utilize selenium (Se) isotopes as a tracer of Earth redox conditions. We find temporal trends towards lower δ82/76Se values in shales before and after all Neoproterozoic glaciations, which we interpret as incomplete reduction of Se oxyanions. Trends suggest that deep-ocean Se oxyanion concentrations increased because of progressive atmospheric and deep-ocean oxidation. Immediately after the Marinoan glaciation, higher δ82/76Se values superpose the general decline. This may indicate less oxic conditions with lower availability of oxyanions or increased bioproductivity along continental margins that captured heavy seawater δ82/76Se into buried organics. Overall, increased ocean oxidation and atmospheric O2 extended over at least 100 million years, setting the stage for early animal evolution. PMID:26679529

Can a coupled meteorology–chemistry model reproduce the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The ability of a coupled meteorology–chemistry model, i.e., Weather Research and Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ), to reproduce the historical trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and clear-sky shortwave radiation (SWR) over the Northern Hemisphere has been evaluated through a comparison of 21-year simulated results with observation-derived records from 1990 to 2010. Six satellite-retrieved AOD products including AVHRR, TOMS, SeaWiFS, MISR, MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua as well as long-term historical records from 11 AERONET sites were used for the comparison of AOD trends. Clear-sky SWR products derived by CERES at both the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface as well as surface SWR data derived from seven SURFRAD sites were used for the comparison of trends in SWR. The model successfully captured increasing AOD trends along with the corresponding increased TOA SWR (upwelling) and decreased surface SWR (downwelling) in both eastern China and the northern Pacific. The model also captured declining AOD trends along with the corresponding decreased TOA SWR (upwelling) and increased surface SWR (downwelling) in the eastern US, Europe and the northern Atlantic for the period of 2000–2010. However, the model underestimated the AOD over regions with substantial natural dust aerosol contributions, such as the Sahara Desert, Arabian Desert, central Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean. Estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) at TOA a

Early estimates of SEER cancer incidence, 2014.

PubMed

Lewis, Denise Riedel; Chen, Huann-Sheng; Cockburn, Myles G; Wu, Xiao-Cheng; Stroup, Antoinette M; Midthune, Douglas N; Zou, Zhaohui; Krapcho, Martin F; Miller, Daniel G; Feuer, Eric J

2017-07-01

Cancer incidence rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2014 using data reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in February 2016 and a validation of rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2013 and submitted in February 2015 using the November 2015 submission are reported. New cancer sites include the pancreas, kidney and renal pelvis, corpus and uterus, and childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years inclusive. A new reporting delay model is presented for these estimates for more consistent results with the model used for the usual November SEER submissions, adjusting for the large case undercount in the February submission. Joinpoint regression methodology was used to assess trends. Delay-adjusted rates and trends were checked for validity between the February 2016 and November 2016 submissions. Validation revealed that the delay model provides similar estimates of eventual counts using either February or November submission data. Trends declined through 2014 for prostate and colon and rectum cancer for males and females, male and female lung cancer, and cervical cancer. Thyroid cancer and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased. Pancreas (male and female) and corpus and uterus cancer demonstrated a modest increase. Slight increases occurred for male kidney and renal pelvis, and for all childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years. Evaluating early cancer data submissions, adjusted for reporting delay, produces timely and valid incidence rates and trends. The results of the current study support using delay-adjusted February submission data for valid incidence rate and trend estimates over several data cycles. Cancer 2017;123:2524-34. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

Trends in gestational age and birth weight in Chile, 1991–2008. A descriptive epidemiological study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Gestational age and birth weight are the principal determinants of newborn’s health status. Chile, a middle income country traditionally has public policies that promote maternal and child health. The availability of an exhaustive database of live births has allows us to monitor over time indicators of newborns health. Methods This descriptive epidemiological study included all live births in Chile, both singleton and multiple, from 1991 through 2008. Trends in gestational age affected the rate of prevalence (%) of preterm births (<37 weeks, including the categories < 32 and 32–36 weeks), term births (37–41) and postterm births (42 weeks or more). Trends in birth weight affected the prevalence of births < 1500 g, 1500–2499 g, 2500–3999 g, and 4000 g or more. Results Data from an exhaustive register of live births showed that the number of term and postterm births decreased and the number of multiple births increased significantly. Birth weights exceeding 4000 g did not vary. Total preterm births rose from 5.0% to 6.6%, with increases of 28% for the singletons and 31% for multiple births (p for trend < 0.0001). Some categories increased even more: specifically preterm birth < 32 weeks increased 32.3% for singletons and 50.6% for multiple births (p for trend 0.0001). The overall rate of low birth weight infants (<2500 g) increased from 4.6% to 5.3%. This variation was not statistically significant for singletons (p for trend = 0.06), but specific analyses exhibited an important increase in the category weighing <1500 g (42%) similar to that observed in multiple births (43%). Conclusions The gestational age and birth weight of live born child have significantly changed over the past two decades in Chile. Monitoring only overall rates of preterm births and low-birth-weight could provide restricted information of this important problem to public health. Monitoring them by specific categories provides a solid basis for planning interventions to reduce adverse perinatal outcomes. This epidemiological information also showed the need to assess several factors that could contribute to explain these trends, as the demographics changes, medical interventions and the increasing probability of survival of extremely and very preterm child. PMID:23116061

Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden?

PubMed

Larsen, Mona; Pedersen, Peder J

2017-01-01

In most OECD member countries labour force attachment, has increased in recent years not only in the age groups 60-64 years but also among people 65 years and older. Focus in this paper is on the trend in older workers' labour force participation in Denmark, Germany and Sweden since 2004. Main emphasis is given to people aged 65-69 years eligible for social security retirement programs from age 65. The gender aspect is included to accommodate different trends for women and men. To explain country differences in trends, the importance of changes in retirement policies of relevance for this age group and cohort relevant changes in education and health is examined and discussed. Further, country differences in the impact from education and health is examined. Results show that the largest increase in labour force participation among people aged 65-69 years has taken place in Sweden following by Germany, while the increase in Denmark is rather small. While the increase in Germany mainly seems to be a result of policy reforms, the increase in Sweden appear to be a result of a combination of policy changes and an increasing educational level. Financial incentives seem most important in Germany and only of minor importance in Denmark, where policy changes directed towards individuals above the age of 65 appear to have been too small so far to affect retirement behaviour significantly.

Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

PubMed

Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

2015-01-01

To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (p<0.05), but not gastric cancer (p=0.423). (i) The number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Critical assessment of opposing views on trends in childhood cancer.

PubMed

Bukowski, J A

2000-01-01

Two articles reaching opposite conclusions on the current trends in childhood cancer have recently appeared in the literature. One concluded that pediatric cancers have increased dramatically, suggesting an effect from environmental hazards; the other concluded that rates for the major pediatric cancers have remained fairly stable, except for modest increases due to improvements in diagnosis or reporting. This review discusses the reasons for this discrepancy, including differences in the populations, age groups, and time periods analyzed. The arguments in favor of an increase are examined and shown to provide no convincing evidence that environmental pollutants have increased pediatric cancer rates over the past 20 to 30 years. Any suggested increase appears to be the result of non-causal factors, such as selective analysis and reporting, residual confounding by age, random variation, and stepwise improvements in diagnosis and classification.

Ten-year trends in coronary calcification in individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Bild, Diane E; McClelland, Robyn; Kaufman, Joel D; Blumenthal, Roger; Burke, Gregory L; Carr, J Jeffrey; Post, Wendy S; Register, Thomas C; Shea, Steven; Szklo, Moyses

2014-01-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence has declined significantly in the US, as have levels of major coronary risk factors, including LDL-cholesterol, hypertension and smoking, but whether trends in subclinical atherosclerosis mirror these trends is not known. To describe recent secular trends in subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by serial evaluations of coronary artery calcification (CAC) prevalence in a population over 10 years, we measured CAC using computed tomography (CT) and CHD risk factors in five serial cross-sectional samples of men and women from four race/ethnic groups, aged 55-84 and without clinical cardiovascular disease, who were members of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort from 2000 to 2012. Sample sizes ranged from 1062 to 4837. After adjusting for age, gender, and CT scanner, the prevalence of CAC increased across exams among African Americans, whose prevalence of CAC was 52.4% in 2000-02, 50.4% in 2003-04, 60.0% is 2005-06, 57.4% in 2007-08, and 61.3% in 2010-12 (p for trend <0.001). The trend was strongest among African Americans aged 55-64 [prevalence ratio for 2010-12 vs. 2000-02, 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 2.39); p = 0.005 for trend across exams]. There were no consistent trends in any other ethnic group. Risk factors generally improved in the cohort, and adjustment for risk factors did not change trends in CAC prevalence. There was a significant secular trend towards increased prevalence of CAC over 10 years among African Americans and no change in three other ethnic groups. Trends did not reflect concurrent general improvement in risk factors. The trend towards a higher prevalence of CAC in African Americans suggests that CHD risk in this population is not improving relative to other groups.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal trends in HbA1c patterns and association with outcomes: A systematic review.

PubMed

Luo, Miyang; Tan, Kristin Hui Xian; Tan, Chuen Seng; Lim, Wei Yen; Tai, E-Shyong; Venkataraman, Kavita

2018-04-17

This study aimed to review studies that identified patterns of longitudinal HbA 1c trends in patients with diabetes and to summarize factors and outcomes associated with distinct trajectory patterns. PubMed and Web of Science were systematically searched for studies examining HbA 1c trends among patients with diabetes from database inception through September 2017. Articles were included if they met the following inclusion criteria: (a) longitudinal study of subjects with diabetes only, (b) use of serial measurements of HbA 1c , and (c) analysis of the trend of HbA 1c using group-based trajectory approaches. Twenty studies were included, 11 on type 1 diabetes and 9 on type 2 diabetes. These studies identified 2 to 6 HbA 1c trajectory patterns. The most commonly identified patterns included stable HbA 1c around 7.0% and at levels between 8.0% and 9.9%, which usually captured the HbA 1c pattern among the majority of subjects in the study population. Unstable patterns identified included increasing HbA 1c trend, decreasing HbA 1c trend, and non-linear patterns. These patterns were associated with differential risk of disease outcomes, over and beyond single-point HbA 1c measures. Age, gender, ethnicity, diabetes duration, disease management frequency, cardiovascular risk factors, insulin treatment, family environment, and psychosocial factors were the most frequently reported factors associated with membership of specific HbA 1c pattern groups. Common patterns of longitudinal HbA 1c trends were identified despite heterogeneity among the studies. A better understanding of what underlies these different patterns may provide opportunities to tailor therapies and care for these patients to reduce adverse outcomes. © 2018 The Authors. Diabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Physical Activity and Heart Rate Variability in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Soares-Miranda, Luisa; Sattelmair, Jacob; Chaves, Paulo; Duncan, Glen; Siscovick, David S; Stein, Phyllis K; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2014-01-01

Background Cardiac mortality and electrophysiologic dysfunction both increase with age. Heart rate variability (HRV) provides indices of autonomic function and electrophysiology that are associated with cardiac risk. How habitual physical activity (PA) among older adults prospectively relates to HRV, including nonlinear indices of erratic sinus patterns, is not established. We hypothesized that increasing levels of both total leisure-time activity and walking would be prospectively associated with more favorable time-domain, frequency-domain, and nonlinear HRV measures in older adults. Methods and Results We evaluated serial longitudinal measures of both PA and 24-hour Holter HRV over 5 years among 985 older US adults in the community-based Cardiovascular Health Study. After multivariable adjustment, greater total leisure-time activity, walking distance, and walking pace were each prospectively associated with specific, more favorable HRV indices, including higher 24-hour standard-deviation-of-all-normal-to-normal-intervals (SDNN, p-trend=0.009, 0.02, 0.06, respectively) and ultra-low-frequency-power (p-trend=0.02, 0.008, 0.16, respectively). Greater walking pace was also associated with higher short-term-fractal-scaling-exponent (p-trend=0.003) and lower Poincare ratio (p-trend=0.02), markers of less erratic sinus patterns. Conclusions Greater total leisure-time activity, as well as walking alone, were prospectively associated with more favorable and specific indices of autonomic function in older adults, including several suggestive of more normal circadian fluctuations and less erratic sinoatrial firing. Our results suggest potential mechanisms that might contribute to lower cardiovascular mortality with habitual PA later in life. PMID:24799513

Argentina wheat yield model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callis, S. L.; Sakamoto, C.

1984-01-01

Five models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate wheat yields for the five wheat growing provinces of Argentina. Meteorological data sets were obtained for each province by averaging data for stations within each province. Predictor variables for the models were derived from monthly total precipitation, average monthly mean temperature, and average monthly maximum temperature. Buenos Aires was the only province for which a trend variable was included because of increasing trend in yield due to technology from 1950 to 1963.

Argentina corn yield model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callis, S. L.; Sakamoto, C.

1984-01-01

A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate corn yields for the country of Argentina. A meteorological data set was obtained for the country by averaging data for stations within the corn-growing area. Predictor variables for the model were derived from monthly total precipitation, average monthly mean temperature, and average monthly maximum temperature. A trend variable was included for the years 1965 to 1980 since an increasing trend in yields due to technology was observed between these years.

Foresight Infectious Diseases China Project--a novel approach to anticipating future trends in risk of infectious diseases in China: methodology and results from an initial application.

PubMed

Nicoll, A; Huang, J; Xie, Z

2009-07-09

The project devised a simple but novel methodology for identifying possible future trends in infectious diseases in animals and humans in China, of priority concern to the Chinese authorities. It used a model of disease drivers (social, economic, biological or environmental factors that affect disease outcomes, by changing the behaviour of diseases, sources or pathways) devised for the Foresight Programme in the United Kingdom. Nine families of drivers were adapted to Chinese circumstances and matrices were constructed to identify the likely relationship of single infectious diseases or families of diseases to the drivers. The likely future trends in those drivers in China were determined by interviews with 36 independent Chinese experts. These trends included not only potentially adverse animal and human movements but also opportunities for innovative surveillance methods, more use of hospitals, antimicrobials and vaccines. Some human behaviours and social trends were expected to increase the risk of infections (in particular sexually transmitted and healthcare-associated infections) while at the same time the experts thought the awareness of risk in the Chinese population would increase. The results suggested a number of areas where the Chinese authorities may experience difficulties in the future, such as rising numbers of healthcare-associated infections, zoonoses and other emerging diseases and sexually transmitted infections (including HIV). Not making firm predictions, this work identifies priority disease groups requiring surveillance and consideration of countermeasures as well as recommending strengthening basic surveillance and response mechanisms for unanticipatable zoonoses and other emerging disease threats.

Acute care hospitals' accountability to provincial funders.

PubMed

Kromm, Seija K; Ross Baker, G; Wodchis, Walter P; Deber, Raisa B

2014-09-01

Ontario's acute care hospitals are subject to a number of tools, including legislation and performance measurement for fiscal accountability and accountability for quality. Examination of accountability documents used in Ontario at the government, regional and acute care hospital levels reveals three trends: (a) the number of performance measures being used in the acute care hospital sector has increased significantly; (b) the focus of the health system has expanded from accountability for funding and service volumes to include accountability for quality and patient safety; and (c) the accountability requirements are misaligned at the different levels. These trends may affect the success of the accountability approach currently being used. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for depression: trends and developments.

PubMed

MacKenzie, Meagan B; Kocovski, Nancy L

2016-01-01

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) was developed as a psychological intervention for individuals at risk of depressive relapse. Possible mechanisms of change for this intervention are in line with its theoretical underpinnings, and include increases in mindfulness and/or decreases in negative repetitive thoughts. This review provides an overview of current trends in MBCT research, including efficacy and questions regarding the specific effects of MBCT in light of recent comparisons with structurally equivalent control conditions, mechanisms of change, and moderators of treatment outcome. In addition, future directions are discussed, such as challenges with training an adequate number of therapists and disseminating this therapy.

Trends in CD4 Count Testing, Retention in Pre-ART Care, and ART Initiation Rates over the First Decade of Expansion of HIV Services in Haiti

PubMed Central

Koenig, Serena P.; Bernard, Daphne; Dévieux, Jessy G.; Atwood, Sidney; McNairy, Margaret L.; Severe, Patrice; Marcelin, Adias; Julma, Pierrot; Apollon, Alexandra; Pape, Jean W.

2016-01-01

Background High attrition during the period from HIV testing to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is widely reported. Though treatment guidelines have changed to broaden ART eligibility and services have been widely expanded over the past decade, data on the temporal trends in pre-ART outcomes are limited; such data would be useful to guide future policy decisions. Methods We evaluated temporal trends and predictors of retention for each step from HIV testing to ART initiation over the past decade at the GHESKIO clinic in Port-au-Prince Haiti. The 24,925 patients >17 years of age who received a positive HIV test at GHESKIO from March 1, 2003 to February 28, 2013 were included. Patients were followed until they remained in pre-ART care for one year or initiated ART. Results 24,925 patients (61% female, median age 35 years) were included, and 15,008 (60%) had blood drawn for CD4 count within 12 months of HIV testing; the trend increased over time from 36% in Year 1 to 78% in Year 10 (p<0.0001). Excluding transfers, the proportion of patients who were retained in pre-ART care or initiated ART within the first year after HIV testing was 84%, 82%, 64%, and 64%, for CD4 count strata ≤200, 201 to 350, 351 to 500, and >500 cells/mm3, respectively. The trend increased over time for each CD4 strata, and in Year 10, 94%, 95%, 79%, and 74% were retained in pre-ART care or initiated ART for each CD4 strata. Predictors of pre-ART attrition included male gender, low income, and low educational status. Older age and tuberculosis (TB) at HIV testing were associated with retention in care. Conclusions The proportion of patients completing assessments for ART eligibility, remaining in pre-ART care, and initiating ART have increased over the last decade across all CD4 count strata, particularly among patients with CD4 count ≤350 cells/mm3. However, additional retention efforts are needed for patients with higher CD4 counts. PMID:26901795

Cost and disability trends of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in Ohio.

PubMed

Davis, K; Dunning, K; Jewell, G; Lockey, J

2014-12-01

With expected changes in age demographics many industry sectors may see their workforce significantly increase in age. The impact of claims and costs associated with musculoskeletal disorders in these industries may also change accordingly. To determine the age-related trends in musculoskeletal disorders, including claims and costs, in different industrial sectors in the state of Ohio, USA. Worker's compensation claims for musculoskeletal disorders in the state of Ohio between 1999 and 2004 were analysed in respect of age, industry sector, body region, and impact on cost and medical care (percentage of claims associated with surgery and number of procedures costing in excess of US$600). More than 570000 claims were analysed. Patterns of cost and disability among the majority of body regions demonstrated an increasing trend until 55 years of age, decreasing in older age groups. However, many industries demonstrated a continued increasing trend in costs with age. Shoulder and lumbar spine disorders showed unique industry-specific trends for older age groups as compared to the bell-shaped relationships for other body regions. Ageing appeared to have a role in the frequency and costs of musculoskeletal disorder claims in this study. However, industry-specific trends in the data suggest that job-specific risk factors may also play a role. The impact of age alone on the cost of musculoskeletal disorders cannot be determined because age is confounded by numerous lifestyle and work-related factors not identifiable in this study. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The computation of equating errors in international surveys in education.

PubMed

Monseur, Christian; Berezner, Alla

2007-01-01

Since the IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study, one of the major objectives of international surveys in education has been to report trends in achievement. The names of the two current IEA surveys reflect this growing interest: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). Similarly a central concern of the OECD's PISA is with trends in outcomes over time. To facilitate trend analyses these studies link their tests using common item equating in conjunction with item response modelling methods. IEA and PISA policies differ in terms of reporting the error associated with trends. In IEA surveys, the standard errors of the trend estimates do not include the uncertainty associated with the linking step while PISA does include a linking error component in the standard errors of trend estimates. In other words, PISA implicitly acknowledges that trend estimates partly depend on the selected common items, while the IEA's surveys do not recognise this source of error. Failing to recognise the linking error leads to an underestimation of the standard errors and thus increases the Type I error rate, thereby resulting in reporting of significant changes in achievement when in fact these are not significant. The growing interest of policy makers in trend indicators and the impact of the evaluation of educational reforms appear to be incompatible with such underestimation. However, the procedure implemented by PISA raises a few issues about the underlying assumptions for the computation of the equating error. After a brief introduction, this paper will describe the procedure PISA implemented to compute the linking error. The underlying assumptions of this procedure will then be discussed. Finally an alternative method based on replication techniques will be presented, based on a simulation study and then applied to the PISA 2000 data.

Temporal trends in nitrate and selected pesticides in Mid-Atlantic ground water.

PubMed

Debrewer, Linda M; Ator, Scott W; Denver, Judith M

2008-01-01

Evaluating long-term temporal trends in regional ground-water quality is complicated by variable hydrogeologic conditions and typically slow flow, and such trends have rarely been directly measured. Ground-water samples were collected over near-decadal and annual intervals from unconfined aquifers in agricultural areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, including fractured carbonate rocks in the Great Valley, Potomac River Basin, and unconsolidated sediments on the Delmarva Peninsula. Concentrations of nitrate and selected pesticides and degradates were compared among sampling events and to apparent recharge dates. Observed temporal trends are related to changes in land use and chemical applications, and to hydrogeology and climate. Insignificant differences in nitrate concentrations in the Great Valley between 1993 and 2002 are consistent with relatively steady fertilizer application during respective recharge periods and are likely related to drought conditions in the later sampling period. Detecting trends in Great Valley ground water is complicated by long open boreholes characteristic of wells sampled in this setting which facilitate significant ground-water mixing. Decreasing atrazine and prometon concentrations, however, reflect reported changes in usage. On the Delmarva Peninsula between 1988 and 2001, median nitrate concentrations increased 2 mg per liter in aerobic ground water, reflecting increasing fertilizer applications. Correlations between selected pesticide compounds and apparent recharge date are similarly related to changing land use and chemical application. Observed trends in the two settings demonstrate the importance of considering hydrogeology and recharge date along with changing land and chemical uses when interpreting trends in regional ground-water quality.

Recent Development on the NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H. M.; Huang, B.; Boyer, T.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.

2016-12-01

Global Surface Temperature (GST) is one of the most widely used indicators for climate trend and extreme analyses. A widely used GST dataset is the NOAA merged land-ocean surface temperature dataset known as NOAAGlobalTemp (formerly MLOST). The NOAAGlobalTemp had recently been updated from version 3.5.4 to version 4. The update includes a significant improvement in the ocean surface component (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature or ERSST, from version 3b to version 4) which resulted in an increased temperature trends in recent decades. Since then, advancements in both the ocean component (ERSST) and land component (GHCN-Monthly) have been made, including the inclusion of Argo float SSTs and expanded EOT modes in ERSST, and the use of ISTI databank in GHCN-Monthly. In this presentation, we describe the impact of those improvements on the merged global temperature dataset, in terms of global trends and other aspects.

Challenges, issues and trends in fall detection systems

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Since falls are a major public health problem among older people, the number of systems aimed at detecting them has increased dramatically over recent years. This work presents an extensive literature review of fall detection systems, including comparisons among various kinds of studies. It aims to serve as a reference for both clinicians and biomedical engineers planning or conducting field investigations. Challenges, issues and trends in fall detection have been identified after the reviewing work. The number of studies using context-aware techniques is still increasing but there is a new trend towards the integration of fall detection into smartphones as well as the use of machine learning methods in the detection algorithm. We have also identified challenges regarding performance under real-life conditions, usability, and user acceptance as well as issues related to power consumption, real-time operations, sensing limitations, privacy and record of real-life falls. PMID:23829390

Minimizing radiation exposure during percutaneous nephrolithotomy.

PubMed

Chen, T T; Preminger, G M; Lipkin, M E

2015-12-01

Given the recent trends in growing per capita radiation dose from medical sources, there have been increasing concerns over patient radiation exposure. Patients with kidney stones undergoing percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PNL) are at particular risk for high radiation exposure. There exist several risk factors for increased radiation exposure during PNL which include high Body Mass Index, multiple access tracts, and increased stone burden. We herein review recent trends in radiation exposure, radiation exposure during PNL to both patients and urologists, and various approaches to reduce radiation exposure. We discuss incorporating the principles of As Low As reasonably Achievable (ALARA) into clinical practice and review imaging techniques such as ultrasound and air contrast to guide PNL access. Alternative surgical techniques and approaches to reducing radiation exposure, including retrograde intra-renal surgery, retrograde nephrostomy, endoscopic-guided PNL, and minimally invasive PNL, are also highlighted. It is important for urologists to be aware of these concepts and techniques when treating stone patients with PNL. The discussions outlined will assist urologists in providing patient counseling and high quality of care.

Drought offset ecological restoration program-induced increase in vegetation activity in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region, China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhitao; Wu, Jianjun; He, Bin; Liu, Jinghui; Wang, Qianfeng; Zhang, Hong; Liu, Yong

2014-10-21

To improve the ecological conditions, the Chinese government adopted six large-scale ecological restoration programs including 'Three-North Shelterbelt Project', "Grain for Green Project" and "Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project". Meanwhile, these ecologically vulnerable areas have experienced frequent droughts. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of drought on the effectiveness of these programs. Taking Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) as study area, we investigated the role of droughts and ecological restoration program on trends of vegetation activities and to address the question of a possible "drought signal" in assessing effectiveness of ecological restoration program. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Vegetation activity increased in the BTSSR during 2000-2010, with 58.44% of the study area showing an increased NDVI, of which 11.80% had a significant increase at 0.95 confidential level. The decreasing NDVI trends were mainly concentrated in a southwest-to-northeast strip in the study area. (2) Drought was the main driving force for a decreasing trend of vegetation activity in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR at the regional and spatial scales. Summer droughts in 2007 and 2009 contributed to the decreasing trend in NDVI. The severe and extreme droughts in summer reduced the NDVI by approximately 13.06% and 23.55%, respectively. (3) The residual analysis result showed that human activities, particularly the ecological restoration programs, have a positive impact on vegetation change. Hence, the decreasing trends in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR cannot be explained by the improper ecological restoration program and is partly explained by droughts, especially summer droughts. Therefore, drought offset the ecological restoration program-induced increase in vegetation activity in the BTSSR.

Increasing prevalence of diabetes in Bangladesh: a scoping review.

PubMed

Biswas, T; Islam, A; Rawal, L B; Islam, S M S

2016-09-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly in Bangladesh. However, studies documenting the increasing trend of diabetes prevalence are scarce. The aim of this study was to conduct a scoping review of published literature to ascertain the changing patterns of diabetes prevalence in Bangladesh. We conducted a scoping review based on York scoping reviews framework and performed a comprehensive search of published literature through Medline, BanglaJOL, and Google Scholar published between 1994 and 2013. We summarised and calculated the time trends and pooled prevalence for type 2 diabetes among adults (≥18 years) in both urban and rural areas in Bangladesh. Of 152 studies identified, we included 22 studies for the scoping review which met the inclusion criteria. Overall, 11 studies (50%) were conducted in rural areas, eight in urban (36%) and three (14%) in semi-urban, semi-rural and tribal areas. The overall prevalence of type 2 diabetes ranged between 4.5% and 35.0%. The final estimate of diabetes prevalence obtained after pooling of data from individual studies among 51,252 participants was 7.4% (95% CI 7.2-7.7%). The prevalence of diabetes was higher in males compared to females in urban areas and vice-versa in rural areas. Analyses of exponential trend revealed an increasing trend of diabetes prevalence among urban and rural population at a rate of 0.05% (R = 0.18) and 0.06% (R = 0.35) per year, respectively. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes showed an increasing trend in both urban and rural population in Bangladesh. Our findings suggest the need for an all-out effort by the government and stakeholders to implement preventive strategies for diabetes in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in the Purchase of Surgical Care in the Community by the Veterans Health Administration.

PubMed

Rosen, Amy K; O'Brien, William; Chen, Qi; Shwartz, Michael; Itani, Kamal F M; Gunnar, William

2017-07-01

The 2014 implementation of the Veterans Choice Program increased opportunities for Veterans to receive care in the community. Although surgical care is a Veterans Health Administration (VHA) priority, little is known about the types of surgeries provided in the VHA versus those referred to community care (CC), and whether Veterans are increasing their use of surgical care through CC with these additional opportunities. To examine national trends across VHA facilities in the frequencies and types of surgeries provided in the VHA and through CC, and explore the association between facilities' purchase of care with rurality and surgical complexity designation. Retrospective study using Veterans Administration (VA) outpatient and CC data from the VA's Corporate Data Warehouse (October 1, 2013-September 30, 2016). Veterans' demographics, outpatient surgeries, facility rurality, and surgical complexity. Our sample included 525,283 outpatient surgeries; 79% occurred in the VHA over the study timeframe. The proportion of CC surgeries increased from 16% in October 2013 to 29% in December 2014, and then subsequently declined, leveling off at 21% in June 2016 (trend, P<0.05). These trends varied by surgery type. Increases in CC surgeries were evident for 4 surgery types: cardiovascular, digestive, eye and ocular, and male genital surgeries (all trends, P<0.05). Rural and low-complexity facilities were more likely to purchase surgical CC than their urban and high-complexity counterparts (P<0.0001). Although the VHA remains the primary provider of surgical care for Veterans, Veterans Choice Program implementation increased Veterans' use of CC relative to the VHA for certain types of surgeries, potentially bringing challenges to the VHA in delivering and coordinating surgical care across settings.

Time trends in patient characteristics treated on acute stroke-units: results from the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry 2003-2011.

PubMed

Teuschl, Yvonne; Brainin, Michael; Matz, Karl; Dachenhausen, Alexandra; Ferrari, Julia; Seyfang, Leonhard; Lang, Wilfried

2013-04-01

Demographic changes, increased awareness of vascular risk factors, better diagnostic, progress in medical care, and increasing primary stroke prevention influence the profile of patients admitted to stroke-units. Changes in patient population and stroke type have important consequences on outcome and management at stroke-units. Data from the national database of the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry were analyzed for time-trends in demography, risk factors, cause, and stroke severity. Data of 48 038 ischemic and 5088 hemorrhagic strokes were analyzed. Between 2003 and 2011, median age increased significantly for ischemic strokes from 68 to 71 years in men and from 76 to 78 years in women, respectively. Ischemic stroke patients showed significantly increased rates of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and atrial fibrillation. In hemorrhagic strokes an increase for hypercholesterolemia and cardiac diseases other than atrial fibrillation and myocardial infarction were only found in men. A small but significant decrease in stroke severity was found for ischemic strokes from 4 to 3 points on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale in men and from 5 to 4 in women, and for hemorrhagic strokes from 9 to 6 points in men and from 9 to 7 in women. Cardioembolic strokes increased slightly, whereas macroangiopathy decreased. Significant time trends were seen for characteristics of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to acute stroke-units in Austria. These include trends for older age and toward milder strokes with more cardioembolic causes. This signals a need for increased resources for managing multimorbidity and enabling early mobilization.

Otolaryngology Education: Recent Trends in Publication.

PubMed

Cass, Nathan D; Okland, Tyler S; Rodriguez, Kenny; Mann, Scott E

2017-06-01

Objectives (1) Evaluate peer-reviewed publications regarding education in otolaryngology since 2000. (2) Analyze publication trends as compared with overall otolaryngology publications. Study Design Bibliometric analysis. Setting Academic medical center. Subjects and Methods A search for articles regarding education in otolaryngology from 2000 to 2015 was performed with MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, yielding 1220 articles; 362 relevant publications were categorized by topic, subspecialty, subject, article type, and funding source. Impact factors for each journal by year were obtained, and trends of each category over time were analyzed. These were then compared with publication numbers and impact factors for all otolaryngology journals. Results From 2000 to 2015, publications in otolaryngology education increased more rapidly than the field of otolaryngology overall. The most published topics included operative skills training, surgical simulation, and professionalism/career development. Recently there has been a decline in publications related to residency administration and duty hours relative to other topics. Only 12.2% of publications reported a funding source, and only 12.2% of studies were controlled. Conclusion Recent trends in otolaryngology literature reflect an increasing focus on education; however, this work is underfunded and often lacks high-quality evidence.

Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, T.; Myneni, R.

2017-12-01

Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

Incidence and survival time trends for Spanish children and adolescents with leukaemia from 1983 to 2007.

PubMed

Marcos-Gragera, R; Galceran, J; Martos, C; de Munain, A L; Vicente-Raneda, M; Navarro, C; Quirós-Garcia, J R; Sánchez, M-J; Ardanaz, E; Ramos, M; Mateos, A; Salmerón, D; Felipe, S; Peris-Bonet, R

2017-03-01

We have analysed incidence and survival trends of children and adolescents with leukaemia registered in Spanish population-based cancer registries during the period 1983-2007. Childhood and adolescent leukaemia cases were drawn from the 11 Spanish population-based cancer registries. For survival, registries with data for the period 1991-2005 and follow-up until 31-12-2010 were included. Overall incidence trends were evaluated using joinpoint analysis. Observed survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier, and trends were tested using the log-rank test. Based on 2606 cases (2274 children and 332 adolescents), the overall age-adjusted incidence rate (ASRw) of leukaemia was 47.9 cases per million child-years in children and 23.8 in adolescents. The ASRw of leukaemia increased with an annual percentage change of 9.6 % (95 % CI: 2.2-17.6) until 1990 followed by a stabilisation of rates. In adolescents, incidence did not increase. Five-year survival increased from 66 % in 1991-1995 to 76 % in 2001-2005. By age, survival was dramatically lower in infants (0) and adolescents (15-19) than in the other age groups and no improvement was observed. In both children and adolescents, differences in 5-year survival rates among major subgroups of leukaemias were significant. The increasing incidence trends observed in childhood leukaemias during the study period were confined to the beginning of the period. Remarkable improvements in survival have been observed in Spanish children with leukaemias. However, this improvement was not observed in infants and adolescents.

Changes in daily and monthly rainfall in the Middle Yellow River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yi; Tian, Peng; Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju; Wang, Fei; Li, Pengfei

2017-07-01

Highly concentrated precipitation, where a large percentage of annual precipitation occurs over a few days, may include a high risk of flooding and severe soil erosion. Thus, areas with severe erosion such as the Loess Plateau in China are particularly vulnerable to highly concentrated precipitation events due to climate change. In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal patterns in the concentration of rainfall in the Middle Yellow River (MYR) from the last 56 years (1958-2013). We used daily and monthly precipitation data from 26 meteorological stations in the study area to calculate the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI). The southern and northern parts of the MYR were characterized by a lower CI with a decreasing trend, while the middle parts had a higher CI with an increasing trend. High PCI values occurred in the southern MYR, while lower PCIs with a more homogenous rainfall distribution were found mainly in the northern parts of the MYR. The annual PCI and CI exhibited positive trends at most stations, although only a minority of stations had significant trends ( P < 0.05). At seasonal scales, CI exhibited significantly increasing trends in winter at most stations, while a few stations had significant trends in the other three seasons. These findings provide important reference information to facilitate ecological restoration and farming operations in the study region.

Taking the long view: a systematic review reporting long-term perspectives on child unintentional injury.

PubMed

Mytton, Julie A; Towner, Elizabeth M L; Powell, Jane; Pilkington, Paul A; Gray, Selena

2012-10-01

The relative significance of child injury as a cause of preventable death has increased as mortality from infectious diseases has declined. Unintentional child injuries are now a major cause of death and disability across the world with the greatest burden falling on those who are most disadvantaged. A review of long-term data on child injury mortality was conducted to explore trends and inequalities and consider how data were used to inform policy, practice and research. The authors systematically collated and quality appraised data from publications and documents reporting unintentional child injury mortality over periods of 20 years or more. A critical narrative synthesis explored trends by country income group, injury type, age, gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic group. 31 studies meeting the inclusion criteria were identified of which 30 were included in the synthesis. Only six were from middle income countries and none were from low income countries. An overall trend in falling child injury mortality masked rising road traffic injury deaths, evidence of increasing vulnerability of adolescents and widening disparities within countries when analysed by ethnic group and socioeconomic status. Child injury mortality trend data from high and middle income countries has illustrated inequalities within generally falling trends. There is scope for greater use of existing trend data to inform policy and practice. Similar evidence from low income countries where the burden of injury is greatest is needed.

Analyzing Multidecadal Trends in Cloudiness Over the Subtropical Andes Mountains of South America Using a Regional Climate Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Satellite-based products indicate that many parts of South America have been experiencing increases in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and corresponding decreases in cloudiness over the last few decades, with the strongest trends occurring in the subtropical Andes Mountains - an area that is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on glacial melt for dry-season runoff. Changes in cloudiness may be contributing to increases in atmospheric temperature, thereby raising the freezing level height (FLH) - a critical geophysical parameter. Yet these trends are only partially captured in reanalysis products, while AMIP climate models generally show no significant trend in OLR over this timeframe, making it difficult to determine the underlying drivers. Therefore, controlled numerical experiments with a regional climate model are performed in order to investigate drivers of the observed OLR and cloudiness trends. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used here because it offers several advantages over global models, including higher resolution - a critical asset in areas of complex topography - as well as flexible physics, parameterization, and data assimilation capabilities. It is likely that changes in the mean states and meridional gradients of SSTs in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are driving regional trends in clouds. A series of lower boundary manipulations are performed with WRF to determine to what extent changes in SSTs influence regional OLR.

Trends in NRMP Data from 2007-2014 for U.S. Seniors Matching into Emergency Medicine.

PubMed

Manthey, David E; Hartman, Nicholas D; Newmyer, Aileen; Gunalda, Jonah C; Hiestand, Brian C; Askew, Kim L; Lefebvre, Cedric

2017-01-01

Since 1978, the National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) has published data demonstrating characteristics of applicants who have matched into their preferred specialty in the NRMP main residency match. These data have been published approximately every two years. There is limited information about trends within these published data for students matching into emergency medicine (EM). Our objective was to investigate and describe trends in NRMP data to include the following: the ratio of applicants to available EM positions; United State Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 scores (compared to the national means); number of programs ranked; and Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society (AOA) membership among U.S. seniors matching into EM. This was a retrospective observational review of NRMP data published between 2007 and 2016. We analyzed the data using analysis of variance (ANOVA) or Kruskal-Wallis testing, and Fischer's exact or chi-squared testing, as appropriate to determine statistical significance. The ratio of applicants to available EM positions remained essentially stable from 2007 to 2014 but did increase slightly in 2016. We observed a net upward trend in overall Step 1 and Step 2 scores for EM applicants. However, this did not outpace the national trend increase in Step 1 and 2 scores overall. There was an increase in the mean number of programs ranked by EM applicants over the years studied from 7.8 (SD4.2) to 9.2 (SD5.0, p<0.001), driven predominantly by the cohort of U.S. students successful in the match. Among time intervals, there was a difference in the number of EM applicants with AOA membership (p=0.043) due to a drop in the number of AOA students in 2011. No sustained statistical trend in AOA membership was identified over the seven-year period studied. NRMP data demonstrate trends among EM applicants that are similar to national trends in other specialties for USMLE board scores, and a modest increase in number of programs ranked. AOA membership was largely stable. EM does not appear to have become more competitive relative to other specialties or previous years in these categories.

Breast cancer in Asian Americans in California, 1988-2013: increasing incidence trends and recent data on breast cancer subtypes.

PubMed

Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Von Behren, Julie; McKinley, Meg; Clarke, Christina A; Shariff-Marco, Salma; Cheng, Iona; Reynolds, Peggy; Glaser, Sally L

2017-07-01

In contrast to other US racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (AA) have experienced steadily increasing breast cancer rates in recent decades. To better understand potential contributors to this increase, we examined incidence trends by age and stage among women from seven AA ethnic groups in California from 1988 to 2013, and incidence patterns by subtype and age at diagnosis for the years 2009 through 2013. Joinpoint regression was applied to California Cancer Registry data to calculate annual percentage change (APC) for incidence trends. Incidence rate ratios were used to compare rates for AA ethnic groups relative to non-Hispanic whites (NHW). All AA groups except Japanese experienced incidence increases, with the largest among Koreans in 1988-2006 (APC 4.7, 95% CI 3.8, 5.7) and Southeast Asians in 1988-2013 (APC 2.5, 95% CI 0.8, 4.2). Among women younger than age 50, large increases occurred for Vietnamese and other Southeast Asians; among women over age 50, increasing trends occurred in all AA ethnic groups. Rates increased for distant-stage disease among Filipinas (2.2% per year, 95% CI 0.4, 3.9). Compared to NHW, Filipinas and older Vietnamese had higher incidence rates of some HER2+ subtypes. Breast cancer incidence rates have risen rapidly among California AA, with the greatest increases in Koreans and Southeast Asians. Culturally tailored efforts to increase awareness of and attention to breast cancer risk factors are needed. Given the relatively higher rates of HER2-overexpressing subtypes in some AA ethnicities, research including these groups and their potentially unique exposures may help elucidate disease etiology.

Dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in streams of the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, David W.; Flynn, Marilyn E.

2014-01-01

Results from the trend analysis and from the SPARROW model indicate that, compared to monitoring stations with no trends or decreasing trends, stations with increasing trends are associated with a smaller percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources, and a larger percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Conversely, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends, stations with decreasing trends have a larger percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources and a smaller percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Stations with decreasing trends also have larger percentages of predicted dissolved-solids load originating from cultivated lands and pasture lands, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends.

Trends in prescription drug expenditures by Medicaid enrollees.

PubMed

Banthin, Jessica S; Miller, G Edward

2006-05-01

As prescription drug expenditures consume an increasingly larger portion of Medicaid budgets, states are anxious to control drug costs without endangering enrollees' health. In this report, we analyzed recent trends in Medicaid prescription drug expenditures by therapeutic classes and subclasses. Identifying the fastest growing categories of drugs, where drugs are grouped into clinically relevant classes and subclasses, can help policymakers decide where to focus their cost containment efforts. We used data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey linked to a prescription drug therapeutic classification system, to examine trends between 1996/1997 and 2001/2002 in utilization and expenditures for the noninstitutionalized Medicaid population. We separated aggregate trends into changes in population with use and changes in expenditures per user, and percent generic. We also highlighted differences within the Medicaid population, including children, adults, disabled, and elderly. We found rapid growth in expenditures for antidepressants, antipsychotics, antihyperlipidemics, antidiabetic agents, antihistamines, COX-2 inhibitors, and proton pump inhibitors and found evidence supporting the rapid take-up of new drugs. In some cases these increases are the result of increased expenditures per user and in other cases the overall growth also comes from an increase in the population with use. Medicaid programs may want to reassess their cost-containment policies in light of the rapid take-up of new drugs. Our analysis also identifies areas in which more information is needed on the comparative effectiveness of new versus existing treatments.

The importance of understanding epidemiology in order to inform financial decisions: a lesson from the Scottish Home Oxygen Service.

PubMed

Wood, R; Grant, I; Bain, M

2012-11-01

To ensure that decisions on the future planning of the Scottish Home Oxygen Service reflect population needs by examining the epidemiology of the main conditions that require home oxygen therapy and trends in their management. Analysis of routinely available vital event and health service data supplemented by published literature. Use of linked data to provide person-based analyses. Consideration of trends in key risk factors, disease incidence, prevalence and mortality for chronic neonatal lung disease, cystic fibrosis, chronic interstitial lung disease in adults and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Examination of trends in management of these conditions including hospital admissions, length of stay and re-admissions. The prevalence of all the conditions studied has increased in Scotland over recent years due to a combination of increased incidence, increased survival, more active case finding and demographic changes. There have been changes in management with trends towards shorter hospital stays. The clinical need for home oxygen therapy is likely to continue to increase over the next 10-20 years. It will encompass all age groups and a complex range of conditions. Public health needs to be proactive in providing relevant needs assessment information to ensure that planning within financial constraints is appropriately informed on population needs. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grandparents as Parents: A Primer for Schools. ERIC Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothenberg, Dianne

An increasing number of American grandparents, from all socioeconomic and ethnic groups, have taken on the role of surrogate parents to their grandchildren. Reasons behind this trend involve a variety of family circumstances, including the death of one or both parents, parental abandonment, the high incidence of divorce, an increase in the number…

Economic and Social Conditions Relating to Agriculture and Its Structure to Year 2000. CARD Miscellaneous Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heady, Earl O.

Possible economic and social trends in world agriculture by year 2000 will include increased energy costs; larger, fewer and more specialized farms; decreasing agricultural population; closer ties between farmers and large agribusinesses; more emphasis on consumer and environmental protection; and an increased importance of agriculture in…

Behavioral Treatment of Self-Injury, 1964 to 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahng, SungWoo; Iwata, Brian A.; Lewin, Adam B.

2002-01-01

An analysis of 396 articles (that included 706 participants) on the treatment of self-injurious behavior found the use of reinforcement-based interventions has increased during the past decade, whereas the use of punishment-based interventions has decreased slightly; both of these trends coincide with an increase in the use of functional…

A Guide to Street Tree Inventory Software

Treesearch

Gene A. Olig; Robert W. Miller

1997-01-01

The purpose of this publication is to serve as a reference and guide for urban forestry professionals in the selection of a street tree inventory software program. The programs described include only those that are commercially available. The increasing demand for street tree inventory software follows a trend towards a more computerized society and the increasing...

Trends in Emergency Department Resource Utilization for Poisoning-Related Visits, 2003-2011.

PubMed

Mazer-Amirshahi, Maryann; Sun, Christie; Mullins, Peter; Perrone, Jeanmarie; Nelson, Lewis; Pines, Jesse M

2016-09-01

In recent years, there has been an increase in poisoning-related emergency department (ED) visits. This study examines trends in ED resource utilization for poisoning-related visits over time. A retrospective review of data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, 2003-2011, was conducted. All ED visits with a reason for visit or ICD-9 code related to poisoning were included. We examined the number of ED visits and resources used including diagnostic studies and procedures performed, medications provided, admission rates, and length of stay. The proportion of visits involving resource use was tabulated and trends analyzed using survey-weighted logistic regression, grouping into 2-year periods to ensure adequate sample size. Of an estimated 843 million ED visits between 2003 and 2011, 8 million (0.9 %) were related to poisoning. Visits increased from 1.8 million (0.8 %) visits in 2003-2004 to 2.9 million (1.1 %) visits in 2010-2011, p = 0.001. Use of laboratory studies, EKGs, plain radiographs, and procedures remained stable across the study period. CT use was more than doubled, increasing from 5.2 to 13.7 % of visits, p = 0.001. ED length of stay increased by 35.5 % from 254 to 344 min, p = 0.001. Admission rates increased by 45.3 %, from 15.0 to 21.8 %, p = 0.046. Over the entire study period, 52.0 % of poisoned patients arrived via ambulance, and 3.0 % of patients had been discharged from the hospital within the previous 7 days. Poisoning-related ED visits increased over the 8-year study period; poisonings are resource-intensive visits and require increasingly longer lengths of ED stay or hospital admission.

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.

Temporal Trends in Age at HIV Diagnosis in Cohorts in the United States, the Caribbean, and Central and South America.

PubMed

Crabtree-Ramírez, Brenda; Vega, Yanink Neried Caro; Shepherd, Bryan E; Turner, Megan; Carriquiry, Gabriela; Fink, Valeria; Luz, Paula M; Cortes, Claudia P; Rouzier, Vanessa; Padgett, Denis; Jayathilake, Karu; McGowan, Catherine C; Person, Anna K

2015-09-01

In the United States (USA), the age of those newly diagnosed with HIV is changing, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). A retrospective analysis included HIV-infected adults from seven sites in the Caribbean, Central and South America network (CCASAnet) and the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic (VCCC-Nashville, Tennessee, USA). We estimated the proportion of patients <25 years at HIV diagnosis by calendar year among the general population and MSM. 19,466 (CCASAnet) and 3,746 (VCCC) patients were included. The proportion <25 years at diagnosis in VCCC increased over time for both the general population and MSM (p < 0.001). Only in the Chilean site for the general population and the Brazilian site for MSM were similar trends seen. Subjects <25 years of age at diagnosis were less likely to be immunocompromised at enrollment at both the VCCC and CCASAnet. Recent trends in the USA of greater numbers of newly diagnosed young patients were not consistently observed in Latin America and the Caribbean. Prevention efforts tailored to young adults should be increased.

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena

1994-01-01

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

The Secular Trends in the Incidence Rate and Outcomes of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Taiwan—A Nationwide Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Jen-Yu; Teng, Nai-Chi; Chao, Ting-Ting; Tsai, Shu-Ling; Chen, Chi-Liang; Hsu, Jeng-Yuan; Wu, Chin-Pyng; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chen, Likwang

2015-01-01

Objective This study investigated the trends in incidence and mortality of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), as well as factors associated with OHCA outcomes in Taiwan. Methods Our study included OHCA patients requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) upon arrival at the hospital. We used national time-series data on annual OHCA incidence rates and mortality rates from 2000 to 2012, and individual demographic and clinical data for all OHCA patients requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) care from March of 2010 to September of 2011. Analytic techniques included the time-series regression and the logistic regression. Results There were 117,787 OHCAs in total. The overall incidence rate during the 13 years was 51.1 per 100,000 persons, and the secular trend indicates a sharp increase in the early 2000s and a decrease afterwards. The trend in mortality was also curvilinear, revealing a substantial increase in the early 2000s, a subsequent steep decline and finally a modest increase. Both the 30-day and 180-day mortality rates had a long-term decreasing trend over the period (p<0.01). For both incidence and mortality rates, a significant second-order autoregressive effect emerged. Among OHCA patients with MV, 1-day, 30-day and 180-day mortality rates were 31.3%, 75.8%, and 86.0%, respectively. In this cohort, older age, the female gender, and a Charlson comorbidity index score ≥ 2 were associated with higher 180-day mortality; patients delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas had higher death risk. Conclusions Overall, both the 30-day and the 180-day mortality rates after OHCA had a long-term decreasing trend, while the 1-day mortality had no long-term decline. Among OHCA patients requiring MV, those delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas tended to have higher mortality, suggesting a need for effort to further standardize and improve in-hospital care across hospitals and to advance pre-hospital care in non-metropolitan areas. PMID:25875921

Considerations for monitoring raptor population trends based on counts of migrants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Titus, K.; Fuller, M.R.; Ruos, J.L.; Meyburg, B-U.; Chancellor, R.D.

1989-01-01

Various problems were identified with standardized hawk count data as annually collected at six sites. Some of the hawk lookouts increased their hours of observation from 1979-1985, thereby confounding the total counts. Data recording and missing data hamper coding of data and their use with modern analytical techniques. Coefficients of variation among years in counts averaged about 40%. The advantages and disadvantages of various analytical techniques are discussed including regression, non-parametric rank correlation trend analysis, and moving averages.

Health trends in the wake of the financial crisis-increasing inequalities?

PubMed

Nelson, Kenneth; Tøge, Anne Grete

2017-08-01

The financial crisis that hit Europe in 2007-2008 and the corresponding austerity policies have generated concern about increasing health inequalities, although impacts have been less salient than initially expected. One explanation could be that health inequalities emerged first a few years into the crisis. This study investigates health trends in the wake of the financial crisis and analyses health inequalities across a number of relevant population subgroups, including those defined by employment status, age, family type, gender, and educational attainment. This study uses individual-level panel data (EU-SILC, 2010-2013) to investigate trends in self-rated health. By applying individual fixed effects regression models, the study estimates the average yearly change in self-rated health for persons aged 15-64 years in 28 European countries. Health inequalities are investigated using stratified analyses. Unemployed respondents, particularly those who were unemployed in all years of observation, had a steeper decline in self-rated health than the employed. Respondents of prime working age (25-54 years) had a steeper decline than their younger (15-24) and older (55-64) counterparts, while single parents had a more favorable trend in self-rated health than dual parents. We did not observe any increasing health inequalities based on gender or educational attainment. Health inequalities increased in the wake of the financial crisis, especially those associated with employment status, age, and family type. We did not observe increasing health inequalities in terms of levels of educational attainment and gender.

Trends in sea ice cover within habitats used by bowhead whales in the western Arctic.

PubMed

Moore, Sue E; Laidre, Kristin L

2006-06-01

We examined trends in sea ice cover between 1979 and 2002 in four months (March, June, September, and November) for four large (approximately 100,000 km2) and 12 small (approximately 10,000 km2) regions of the western Arctic in habitats used by bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus). Variation in open water with year was significant in all months except March, but interactions between region and year were not. Open water increased in both large and small regions, but trends were weak with least-squares regression accounting for < or =34% of the total variation. In large regions, positive trends in open water were strongest in September. Linear fits were poor, however, even in the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas, where basin-scale analyses have emphasized dramatic sea ice loss. Small regions also showed weak positive trends in open water and strong interannual variability. Open water increased consistently in five small regions where bowhead whales have been observed feeding or where oceanographic models predict prey entrainment, including: (1) June, along the northern Chukotka coast, near Wrangel Island, and along the Beaufort slope; (2) September, near Wrangel Island, the Barrow Arc, and the Chukchi Borderland; and (3) November, along the Barrow Arc. Conversely, there was very little consistent change in sea ice cover in four small regions considered winter refugia for bowhead whales in the northern Bering Sea, nor in two small regions that include the primary springtime migration corridor in the Chukchi Sea. The effects of sea ice cover on bowhead whale prey availability are unknown but can be modeled via production and advection pathways. Our conceptual model suggests that reductions in sea ice cover will increase prey availability along both pathways for this population. This analysis elucidates the variability inherent in the western Arctic marine ecosystem at scales relevant to bowhead whales and contrasts basin-scale depictions of extreme sea ice retreats, thinning, and wind-driven movements.

A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-06-01

Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

High resolution pollutant measurements in complex urban ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Measuring air pollution in real-time using an instrumented vehicle platform has been an emerging strategy to resolve air pollution trends at a very fine spatial scale (10s of meters). Achieving second-by-second data representative of urban air quality trends requires advanced instrumentation, such as a quantum cascade laser utilized to resolve carbon monoxide and real-time optical detection of black carbon. An equally challenging area of development is processing and visualization of complex geospatial air monitoring data to decipher key trends of interest. EPA’s Office of Research and Development staff have applied air monitoring to evaluate community air quality in a variety of environments, including assessing air quality surrounding rail yards, evaluating noise wall or tree stand effects on roadside and on-road air quality, and surveying of traffic-related exposure zones for comparison with land-use regression estimates. ORD has ongoing efforts to improve mobile monitoring data collection and interpretation, including instrumentation testing, evaluating the effect of post-processing algorithms on derived trends, and developing a web-based tool called Real-Time Geospatial Data Viewer (RETIGO) allowing for a simple plug-and-play of mobile monitoring data. Example findings from mobile data sets include an estimated 50% in roadside ultrafine particle levels when immediately downwind of a noise barrier, increases in neighborhood-wide black carbon levels (3

Updates to Indiana fuel tax and registration revenue projections.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

Highway revenues both at the federal and state levels have failed to keep up with expected investments required for infrastructure : preservation and improvement. The reasons for this trend include the increasing fuel efficiency of vehicles, slowing ...

Gender trends of urology manuscript authors in the United States: a 35-year progression.

PubMed

Weiss, Dana A; Kovshilovskaya, Bogdana; Breyer, Benjamin N

2012-01-01

The presence of women in urology has gradually increased in the last 35 years with an accelerated rate in the last decade. We evaluated manuscript authorship trends by gender. Manuscript authorship is a metric that has been used as a marker of academic productivity. We hypothesized that the number of first and last author publications by women has increased proportionately to the number of women in the field during the last 35 years. We performed a bibliometric study to examine authorship gender in The Journal of Urology® and Urology®. We reviewed all original articles published from American institutions in 1974, 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2009. Of the 8,313 articles reviewed 5,461 were from American institutions, including 97.5% for which we determined author gender. There were 767 articles with female authors, including 440 first and 327 last authors. First and last female authorship increased from 2.7% of all authors in 1979 to 26.5% in 2009 (test for trend p <0.001). This authorship rate surpasses the rate of growth of women in urology, which increased from 0.24% in 1975 to 6.2% in 2008. Based on authorship gender analysis women urologists produce manuscripts at a rate that exceeds their number in the field. Findings show that women in urology are productive, active members of the academic community. Copyright © 2012 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends Across the Night in Patronage, Intoxication, and Licensed Venue Characteristics in Five Australian Cities.

PubMed

Coomber, Kerri; Droste, Nicolas; Pennay, Amy; Mayshak, Richelle; Martino, Florentine; Miller, Peter G

2017-07-29

While alcohol-related harm is reportedly greater on weekend evenings, research investigating trends in the intoxication levels of patrons and factors that increase risk of harm over the night is lacking. The aim was to observe trends over the course of the night for patron demographics, venue characteristics and patron intoxication. Observations of licensed venues and patrons in night-time entertainment districts of five Australian cities were conducted. In total, 798 observations occurred between 9 pm and 2 am on Friday and Saturday nights across 61 unique bars, nightclubs, and pubs. Patron characteristics such as gender and percentage of patrons under 25 years of age were estimated. Measures of venue characteristics included number of patrons, percentage venue capacity, ease of patron movement, bar crowding, and time to service. Measures of intoxication included the percentage of patrons showing any signs of alcohol intoxication, percentage of patrons too intoxicated to remain in the venue, overall level of intoxication, and percentage of patrons showing signs of drug use. Patron capacity increased across the night, peaking at 11 pm in bars, and 1 am in nightclubs. Patron intoxication measures increased for all venue types across the night. Patrons showed more signs of drug use in nightclubs than other venue types. Increasing intoxication and decreasing patron numbers later in the night provides support for restricted trading hours and improved responsible service of alcohol policies. Specific venue types should be targeted to reduce drug use in the night-time economy.

Projecting future drug expenditures--2006.

PubMed

Hoffman, James M; Shah, Nilay D; Vermeulen, Lee C; Schumock, Glen T; Grim, Penny; Hunkler, Robert J; Hontz, Karrie M

2006-01-15

Drug expenditure trends in 2004 and 2005, projected drug expenditures for 2006, and factors likely to influence drug costs are discussed. Various factors are likely to affect drug costs, including drug prices, drugs in development, and generic drugs. In 2004 there was a continued moderation of the increase in drug expenditures. Drug expenditures increased by 8.7% from 2003 to 2004. Through the first nine months of 2005, expenditures increased by only 8.1% compared with 2004. This moderation can be attributed to several factors, including the continued trend toward higher prescription drug cost sharing for insured consumers, growing availability of generic drugs, and lack of "blockbuster" new drugs in recent years. Drug expenditures in 2006 will likely be influenced by similar factors, with few costly new products reaching the market, increased concern over product safety slowing the diffusion of those new agents that do reach the market, and several important patent expirations, leading to slower growth in expenditures. Forecasting and managing rising drug expenditures remains a challenge. Pharmacy managers must remain vigilant in monitoring drug costs in their health system and take a proactive role in pursuing efficient drug utilization. The dynamic health policy environment further complicates drug budgeting and must be considered, especially in integrated health systems responsible for managing inpatient, outpatient, and clinic drug costs. The comparison of health-system-specific data and trends with the national information presented in this article may provide a useful context when presenting institutional drug costs to senior management.

Residual thermal and moisture influences on the strain energy release rate analysis of edge delamination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, T. K.; Raju, I. S.; Garber, D. P.

1985-01-01

A laminated plate theory analysis is developed to calculate the strain energy release rate associated with edge delamination growth in a composite laminate. The analysis includes the contribution of residual thermal and moisture stresses to the strain energy released. The strain energy release rate, G, increased when residual thermal effects were combined with applied mechanical strains, but then decreased when increasing moisture content was included. A quasi-three-dimensional finite element analysis indicated identical trends and demonstrated these same trends for the individual strain energy release rate components, G sub I and G sub II, associated with interlaminar tension and shear. An experimental study indicated that for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy composites, the inclusion of residual thermal and moisture stresses did not significantly alter the calculation of interlaminar fracture toughness from strain energy release rate analysis of edge delamination data taken at room temperature, ambient conditions.

The impact of codeine re-scheduling on misuse: a retrospective review of calls to Australia's largest poisons centre.

PubMed

Cairns, Rose; Brown, Jared A; Buckley, Nicholas A

2016-10-01

Codeine is the most commonly used opioid in the world, and is available over the counter (OTC) in many countries, including Australia. Several countries are reconsidering codeine's OTC status due to concerns over addiction and misuse, with serious morbidity and mortality being reported. Australia's Therapeutic Goods Administration restricted codeine containing analgesics to 'Pharmacist Only' in 2010, and has recently been considering further up-scheduling to make codeine 'Prescription Only'. This paper estimated Australian trends of codeine misuse over the past 12 years, and examined whether trends changed following previous rescheduling efforts in 2010. A retrospective review of calls regarding codeine misuse made to the New South Wales Poisons Information Centre (NSWPIC, Australia's largest poisons centre), 2004-15. Joinpoint software was used to quantify the average annual change in calls, and whether there was a significant change in trend at any time, including following rescheduling. Australia. Four hundred patients about whom a call was made to the NSWPIC. Calls per year, patient age, gender, tablets taken per day, formulation used, symptom disposition. The NSWPIC database contained 400 cases of codeine combination analgesic misuse from 2004 to 2015. Joinpoint analysis showed that the frequency of cases increased significantly from 2004 to 2015, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 19.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 13.8-25.5% P < 0.0001] for paracetamol/codeine and 17.9% (95% CI = 7.9-28.9%, P < 0.01) for ibuprofen/codeine. No significant change in trend was seen at any time, including following 2010 rescheduling. The median age of patients was 34 and 27 years for paracetamol/codeine and ibuprofen/codeine cases, respectively. Gender distribution was approximately equal. Clinical features reported were consistent with codeine, paracetamol and ibuprofen toxicity. Misuse of codeine combination products appears to be increasing in Australia. Limited rescheduling in 2010 failed to curb this increase. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Using NASA's Giovanni System to Simulate Time-Series Stations in the Outflow Region of California's Eel River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acker, James G.; Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Lee, Zhongping

2012-01-01

Oceanographic time-series stations provide vital data for the monitoring of oceanic processes, particularly those associated with trends over time and interannual variability. There are likely numerous locations where the establishment of a time-series station would be desirable, but for reasons of funding or logistics, such establishment may not be feasible. An alternative to an operational time-series station is monitoring of sites via remote sensing. In this study, the NASA Giovanni data system is employed to simulate the establishment of two time-series stations near the outflow region of California s Eel River, which carries a high sediment load. Previous time-series analysis of this location (Acker et al. 2009) indicated that remotely-sensed chl a exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend during summer (low flow) months, but no apparent trend during winter (high flow) months. Examination of several newly-available ocean data parameters in Giovanni, including 8-day resolution data, demonstrates the differences in ocean parameter trends at the two locations compared to regionally-averaged time-series. The hypothesis that the increased summer chl a values are related to increasing SST is evaluated, and the signature of the Eel River plume is defined with ocean optical parameters.

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

Earlier warning: a multi-indicator approach to monitoring trends in the illicit use of medicines.

PubMed

Mounteney, Jane; Haugland, Siren

2009-03-01

The availability of medicines on the illicit drug market is currently high on the international policy agenda, linked to adverse health consequences including addiction, drug related overdoses and injection related problems. Continuous surveillance of illicit use of medicines allows for earlier identification and reporting of emerging trends and increased possibilities for earlier intervention to prevent spread of use and drug related harm. This paper aims to identify data sources capable of monitoring the illicit use of medicines; present trend findings for Rohypnol and Subutex using a multi-indicator monitoring approach; and consider the relevance of such models for policy makers. Data collection and analysis were undertaken in Bergen, Norway, using the Bergen Earlier Warning System (BEWS), a multi-indicator drug monitoring system. Data were gathered at six monthly intervals from April 2002 to September 2006. Drug indicator data from seizures, treatment, pharmacy sales, helplines, key informants and media monitoring were triangulated and an aggregated differential was used to plot trends. Results for the 4-year period showed a decline in the illicit use of Rohypnol and an increase in the illicit use of Subutex. Multi-indicator surveillance models can play a strategic role in the earlier identification and reporting of emerging trends in illicit use of medicines.

Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civan, Aylin; Worrall, Fred; Jarvie, Helen P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.

2018-03-01

Given the importance of phosphorus (P) in the eutrophication of natural waters, this study considered the long-term time series of total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in British rivers from 1974 to 2012. The approach included not only trend analysis of fluxes and concentrations but also change point analysis. TP and TRP concentrations and fluxes in British rivers have declined since the mid-1980s. Over the last decade of the record the majority of individual sites did show significant downward trends in TP and TRP concentrations but, in 28% of cases for TRP concentration and 14% of cases for TP concentration, the decadal trend was a significant increase. Out of 230 sites, 136 showed a significant step decrease in TRP concentration; no sites showed a significant step increase. The modal year for the step changes for both TRP concentration and flux was 1997. Step changes are likely associated with improvements made at sewage treatment works to comply with the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC). The decrease in TRP concentration due to the step change were in the range of 0.68% and 89% with a geometric mean of 22%, with the rest of the decrease accounted by long-term, persistent downward trend.

Trends in the prevalence of elevated skinfold thickness among children and adolescents in Shandong Province, China, 1995-2014.

PubMed

Wang, Shu-Rong; Cheng, Yan; Chen, Min; Zhang, Ying-Xiu

2018-04-04

There are abundant data on secular trends in BMI; however, information on the change in subcutaneous fat is limited. The present study examined the trends in the prevalence of elevated skinfold thickness among children and adolescents over the past 19 years (1995-2014) in Shandong Province, China. Data for the study were obtained from two cross-sectional surveys of schoolchildren carried out in 1995 and 2014. Triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses (SFT) of all participants were measured. The sum of triceps and subscapular SFT (SSFT) was applied. Children and adolescents with SSFT above or equal to the national age- and sex-specific 85th percentile were defined as 'high SFT'. Shandong Province, China. A total of 16 917 students aged 7-18 years were included. For both boys and girls, an increasing trend in 'high SFT' was observed between 1995 and 2014. The overall prevalence of 'high SFT' increased from 10·31 % for boys and 13·40 % for girls in 1995 to 33·94 % for boys and 29·30 % for girls in 2014 (P<0·01). There are more children and adolescents with very high levels of SFT. These trends describe very unfavourable changes in the body composition and should give cause for concern.

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those observed in developed countries (US, EU and Japan) where a decreasing trend for both SO2 and NO2 has been observed since 1990s, the observed upward and downward trend found in Henan is similar to those found in North China Plain and other parts of China. The spatial and temporal trend analyses of SO2 and NO2 in four other regions in Henan further indicate a similar trend to those observed in Henan Province, albeit with different increasing and decreasing rate. The results provide regulatory agency to develop action plans to combat air pollution problem in general and SO2 and NO2 problems in particular in Henan. The implications of our findings and recommendations for decision makers are discussed in the paper.

Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in Caffeine Intake Among US Children and Adolescents

PubMed Central

Branum, Amy M.; Rossen, Lauren M.; Schoendorf, Kenneth C.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE Physicians and policy makers are increasingly interested in caffeine intake among children and adolescents in the advent of increasing energy drink sales. However, there have been no recent descriptions of caffeine or energy drink intake in the United States. We aimed to describe trends in caffeine intake over the past decade among US children and adolescents. METHODS We assessed trends and demographic differences in mean caffeine intake among children and adolescents by using the 24-hour dietary recall data from the 1999–2010 NHANES. In addition, we described the proportion of caffeine consumption attributable to different beverages, including soda, energy drinks, and tea. RESULTS Approximately 73% of children consumed caffeine on a given day. From 1999 to 2010, there were no significant trends in mean caffeine intake overall; however, caffeine intake decreased among 2- to 11-year-olds (P < .01) and Mexican-American children (P = .003). Soda accounted for the majority of caffeine intake, but this contribution declined from 62% to 38% (P < .001). Coffee accounted for 10% of caffeine intake in 1999–2000 but increased to nearly 24% of intake in 2009–2010 (P < .001). Energy drinks did not exist in 1999–2000 but increased to nearly 6% of caffeine intake in 2009–2010. CONCLUSIONS Mean caffeine intake has not increased among children and adolescents in recent years. However, coffee and energy drinks represent a greater proportion of caffeine intake as soda intake has declined. These findings provide a baseline for caffeine intake among US children and young adults during a period of increasing energy drink use. PMID:24515508

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Patriarchy, family structure and the exploitation of women's labor.

PubMed

Heath, J A; Ciscel, D H

1988-09-01

The authors present a case for including the patriarchal model into the analysis of female labor force participation in the United States. They argue that only if it is assumed that the division of labor and distribution of goods and services are structured to benefit the male head of the family can various trends be explained, including the low relative income of women compared to men, the increase in female labor force participation without a corresponding increase in household work by men, and the increasing number of divorces initiated by women despite the fact that divorce increases female poverty.

Health Habits of Employees in a Large Medical Center: Time Trends and Impact of a Worksite Wellness Facility.

PubMed

Abu Dabrh, Abd Moain; Gorty, Archana; Jenkins, Sarah M; Murad, Mohammad Hassan; Hensrud, Donald D

2016-02-11

Worksite health interventions are not novel but their effect remains subject of debate. We examined employer-based wellness program to determine health habits trends, and compare prevalence estimates to national data. We conducted serial surveys (1996 and 2007-10) to employees of a large medical center that included questions measuring outcomes, including obesity, regular exercise, cardiovascular activity, and smoking status. Logistic regression models were estimated to compare data by membership across years, considering p-values ≤ 0.01 as statistically significant. 3,206 employees responded (Response rates 59-68%). Obesity prevalence increased over time in members and nonmembers of the wellness facility, consistent with national trends. Members had a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking compared to nonmembers (overall year-adjusted odds ratio 0.66, P < 0.001). Further, employees had a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking (9.7 vs. 17.3% in 2010, P < 0.001) compared with national data. Wellness facility membership was associated with increased regular exercise and cardiovascular exercise (P < 0.001) compared to nonmembers. In summary, working in a medical center was associated with a decreased prevalence of cigarette smoking, but not with lower prevalence of obesity. Worksite wellness facility membership was associated with increased exercise and decreased cigarette smoking. Employer-based interventions may be effective in improving some health behaviors.

Health Habits of Employees in a Large Medical Center: Time Trends and Impact of a Worksite Wellness Facility

PubMed Central

Abu Dabrh, Abd Moain; Gorty, Archana; Jenkins, Sarah M.; Murad, Mohammad Hassan; Hensrud, Donald D.

2016-01-01

Worksite health interventions are not novel but their effect remains subject of debate. We examined employer-based wellness program to determine health habits trends, and compare prevalence estimates to national data. We conducted serial surveys (1996 and 2007–10) to employees of a large medical center that included questions measuring outcomes, including obesity, regular exercise, cardiovascular activity, and smoking status. Logistic regression models were estimated to compare data by membership across years, considering p-values ≤ 0.01 as statistically significant. 3,206 employees responded (Response rates 59–68%). Obesity prevalence increased over time in members and nonmembers of the wellness facility, consistent with national trends. Members had a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking compared to nonmembers (overall year-adjusted odds ratio 0.66, P < 0.001). Further, employees had a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking (9.7 vs. 17.3% in 2010, P < 0.001) compared with national data. Wellness facility membership was associated with increased regular exercise and cardiovascular exercise (P < 0.001) compared to nonmembers. In summary, working in a medical center was associated with a decreased prevalence of cigarette smoking, but not with lower prevalence of obesity. Worksite wellness facility membership was associated with increased exercise and decreased cigarette smoking. Employer-based interventions may be effective in improving some health behaviors. PMID:26864205

No brain expansion in Australopithecus boisei.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2011-10-01

The endocranial volumes of robust australopithecine fossils appear to have increased in size over time. Most evidence with temporal resolution is concentrated in East African Australopithecus boisei. Including the KNM-WT 17000 cranium, this sample comprises 11 endocranial volume estimates ranging in date from 2.5 million to 1.4 million years ago. But the sample presents several difficulties to a test of trend, including substantial estimation error for some specimens and an unusually low variance. This study reevaluates the evidence, using randomization methods and a related test using an explicit model of variability. None of these tests applied to the A. boisei endocranial volume sample produces significant evidence for a trend in that species, whether or not the early KNM-WT 17000 specimen is included. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Status of silicon solar cell technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandhorst, H. W., Jr.

1976-01-01

Major progress in solar cell technology leading to increased efficiency has occurred since 1970. Technical approaches leading to this increased output include surface texturing, improved antireflection coatings, reduced grid pattern area coverage, shallow junctions and back surface fields. The status of these developments and their incorporation into cell production is discussed. Future research and technology trends leading to further efficiency increases and substantial cost reductions are described.

Model-based risk assessment and public health analysis to prevent Lyme disease

PubMed Central

Sabounchi, Nasim S.; Roome, Amanda; Spathis, Rita; Garruto, Ralph M.

2017-01-01

The number of Lyme disease (LD) cases in the northeastern United States has been dramatically increasing with over 300 000 new cases each year. This is due to numerous factors interacting over time including low public awareness of LD, risk behaviours and clothing choices, ecological and climatic factors, an increase in rodents within ecologically fragmented peri-urban built environments and an increase in tick density and infectivity in such environments. We have used a system dynamics (SD) approach to develop a simulation tool to evaluate the significance of risk factors in replicating historical trends of LD cases, and to investigate the influence of different interventions, such as increasing awareness, controlling clothing risk and reducing mouse populations, in reducing LD risk. The model accurately replicates historical trends of LD cases. Among several interventions tested using the simulation model, increasing public awareness most significantly reduces the number of LD cases. This model provides recommendations for LD prevention, including further educational programmes to raise awareness and control behavioural risk. This model has the potential to be used by the public health community to assess the risk of exposure to LD. PMID:29291075

Cost-effectiveness research in cancer therapy: a systematic review of literature trends, methods and the influence of funding.

PubMed

Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Alameri, Marwah; Al-Okka, Randa

2017-01-27

To perform a first-time analysis of the cost-effectiveness (CE) literature on chemotherapies, of all types, in cancer, in terms of trends and change over time, including the influence of industry funding. Systematic review. A wide range of cancer-related research settings within healthcare, including health systems, hospitals and medical centres. All literature comparative CE research of drug-based cancer therapies in the period 1986 to 2015. Primary outcomes are the literature trends in relation to journal subject category, authorship, research design, data sources, funds and consultation involvement. An additional outcome measure is the association between industry funding and study outcomes. Descriptive statistics and the χ 2 , Fisher exact or Somer's D tests were used to perform non-parametric statistics, with a p value of <0.05 as the statistical significance measure. Total 574 publications were analysed. The drug-related CE literature expands over time, with increased publishing in the healthcare sciences and services journal subject category (p<0.001). The retrospective data collection in studies increased over time (p<0.001). The usage of prospective data, however, has been decreasing (p<0.001) in relation to randomised clinical trials (RCTs), but is unchanging for non-RCT studies. The industry-sponsored CE studies have especially been increasing (p<0.001), in contrast to those sponsored by other sources. While paid consultation involvement grew throughout the years, the declaration of funding for this is relatively limited. Importantly, there is evidence that industry funding is associated with favourable result to the sponsor (p<0.001). This analysis demonstrates clear trends in how the CE cancer research is presented to the practicing community, including in relation to journals, study designs, authorship and consultation, together with increased financial sponsorship by pharmaceutical industries, which may be more influencing study outcomes than other funding sources. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Updating temperature and salinity mean values and trends in the Western Mediterranean: The RADMED project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Yáñez, M.; García-Martínez, M. C.; Moya, F.; Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Serra, M.; Zunino, P.; Pascual, J.; Salat, J.

2017-09-01

The RADMED project is devoted to the implementation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary monitoring system around the Spanish Mediterranean waters. This observing system is based on periodic multidisciplinary cruises covering the coastal waters, continental shelf and slope waters and some deep stations (>2000 m) from the Westernmost Alboran Sea to Barcelona in the Catalan Sea, including the Balearic Islands. This project was launched in 2007 unifying and extending some previous monitoring projects which had a more reduced geographical coverage. Some of the time series currently available extend from 1992, while the more recent ones were initiated in 2007. The present work updates the available time series up to 2015 (included) and shows the capability of these time series for two main purposes: the calculation of mean values for the properties of main water masses around the Spanish Mediterranean, and the study of the interannual and decadal variability of such properties. The data set provided by the RADMED project has been merged with historical data from the MEDAR/MEDATLAS data base for the calculation of temperature and salinity trends from 1900 to 2015. The analysis of these time series shows that the intermediate and deep layers of the Western Mediterranean have increased their temperature and salinity with an acceleration of the warming and salting trends from 1943. Trends for the heat absorbed by the water column for the 1943-2015 period, range between 0.2 and 0.6 W/m2 depending on the used methodology. The temperature and salinity trends for the same period and for the intermediate layer are 0.002 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1 respectively. Deep layers warmed and increased their salinity at a rate of 0.004 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1.

Does dairy food intake predict arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men?: Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study.

PubMed

Livingstone, Katherine M; Lovegrove, Julie A; Cockcroft, John R; Elwood, Peter C; Pickering, Janet E; Givens, D Ian

2013-01-01

Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease events and mortality, and like blood pressure, may be influenced by dairy food intake. Few studies have investigated the effects of consumption of these foods on prospective measures of arterial stiffness. The present analysis aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between milk, cheese, cream, and butter consumption and aortic pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as cross-sectional relationships between these foods and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and metabolic markers using data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. Included in this cohort were 2512 men, aged 45 to 59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 22.8 years (number follow-up 787). Augmentation index was 1.8% lower in subjects in the highest quartiles of dairy product intake compared with the lowest (P trend=0.021), whereas in the highest group of milk consumption systolic blood pressure was 10.4 mm Hg lower (P trend=0.033) than in nonmilk consumers after a 22.8-year follow-up. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that across increasing quartiles of butter intake, insulin (P trend=0.011), triacylglycerol (P trend=0.023), total cholesterol (P trend=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P trend=0.027) were higher. Across increasing groups of milk intake and quartiles of dairy product intake, glucose (P trend=0.032) and triglyceride concentrations (P trend=0.031) were lower, respectively. The present results confirm that consumption of milk predicts prospective blood pressure, whereas dairy product consumption, excluding butter, is not detrimental to arterial stiffness and metabolic markers. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that underpin these relationships.

Procedural trends, outcomes, and readmission rates pre-and post-FDA approval for MitraClip from the National Readmission Database (2013-14).

PubMed

Panaich, Sidakpal S; Arora, Shilpkumar; Badheka, Apurva; Kumar, Varun; Maor, Elad; Raphael, Claire; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Reeder, Guy; Eleid, Mackram; Rihal, Charanjit S

2018-05-01

There are sparse clinical data on the procedural trends, outcomes and readmission rates following FDA approval and expansion of Transcatheter mitral valve repair/MitraClip ® . Whether a complex new technology can be disseminated safely and quickly is controversial. The study cohort was derived from the National Readmission Data (NRD) 2013-14. MitraClip ® was identified using appropriate International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital mortality + procedural complications. Secondary outcome included 30-day readmissions. Hierarchical two level logistic models were used to evaluate study outcomes. Our analysis included 2003 MitraClip ® procedures. Overall in-hospital mortality was 3.9%. As expected, there was a significant increase in procedural volume post-FDA approval. Importantly, a corresponding downward trend in mortality and procedural complications was observed. Significant predictors of in-hospital mortality and procedural complications included the use of vasopressors (P <0.001) and hemodynamic support (P < 0.001). Higher hospital volume (≥10 MitraClips/year) was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and complications (P = 0.02). There were 304 (15.1%) 30-day readmissions, with heart failure being the most common cause of readmission. Elective procedures had lower in-hospital mortality (P < 0.001) and lower readmission rates (P = 0.011) compared with nonelective procedures. A significant increase in MitraClip ® procedural volumes occurred post-FDA approval. Overall morbidity and mortality were low and trended downwards. Hospital procedure volume ≥10 cases were associated with lower mortality and overall complication rates. These data suggest a successful roll out of a very complex novel structural heart procedure. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of growth trend changes for 51 temperate tree species using Korea national forest inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, M.; Moon, M.; Park, J.; Cho, S.; Kim, H. S.

2016-12-01

Individual tree growth rates can be affected by various factors such as species, soil fertility, stand development stage, disturbance, and climate etc. To estimate the effect of changes in tree growth rate on the structure and functionality of forest ecosystem in the future, we analyzed the change of species-specific growth trends using the fifth Korea national forest inventory data, which was collected from 2006 to 2010. The ring samples of average tree were collected from nationwide inventory plots and the total number of individual tree ring series was 69,128 covering 185 tree species. Among those, fifty one species with more than 100 tree ring series were used for our analysis. For growth-trend analysis, standardized regional curves of individual species growth were generated from three forest zone in South Korea; subarctic, cool temperate, warm temperate forest zone. Then individual tree ring series was indexed by dividing the growth of the tree by expected growth from standardized regional curves. Then the ratio of all tree ring series were aligned by year and the Spearman's correlation coefficient of each species was calculated. The results show that most of species had increasing growth rates as forests developed after Korean war. For the last thirty years, 67.3% of species including Quercus spp. and Zelkova serrata had positive growth trends, on the other hand, 11.5% of species including Pinus spp. showed negative growth trends probably due to the changes in successional stages in Korean forests and climate change. These trends also vary with climate zone and species. For examples, Pinus densiflora, which showed negative growth trend overall, had steep negative growth trends in boreal and temperate zone, whereas it showed no specific trend in sub-tropical climate zone. Our trend analysis on 51 temperate tree species growth will be essential to predict the temperate forests species change for the this century.

Detection and attribution of flood change across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archfield, Stacey

2017-04-01

In the United States, there have a been an increasing number of studies quantifying trends in the annual maximum flood; yet, few studies examine trends in floods that may occur more than once in a given year and even fewer assess trends in floods on rivers that have undergone substantial changes due to urbanization, land-cover change, and agricultural drainage practices. Previous research has shown that, for streamgages having minimal direct human intervention, trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. This study extends previous research to provide a comprehensive assessment of flood change across the United States that includes streamgages having experienced confounding alterations to streamflow (urbanization, storage, and land-cover changes) that provides a comprehensive assessment of flood change. Attribution of these changes is also explored.

Thyroid cancer risk and dietary nitrate and nitrite intake in the Shanghai women's health study.

PubMed

Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Gao, Yu-Tang; Ji, Bu-Tian; Yang, Gong; Li, Hong Lan; Rothman, Nathaniel; Chow, Wong-Ho; Zheng, Wei; Ward, Mary H

2013-02-15

Nitrate and nitrite are precursors in the endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds and nitrate can disrupt thyroid homeostasis by inhibiting iodide uptake. We evaluated nitrate and nitrite intake and risk of thyroid cancer in the Shanghai Women's Health Study that included 73,317 women, aged 40-70 years enrolled in 1996-2000. Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using a food frequency questionnaire. During approximately 11 years of follow-up, 164 incident thyroid cancer cases with complete dietary information were identified. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate relative risks (RRs). We determined the nitrate and nitrite contents of foods using values from the published literature and focusing on regional values for Chinese foods. Nitrate intake was not associated with thyroid cancer risk [RR(Q4) = 0.93; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-2.07; p for trend = 0.40]. Compared to the lowest quartile, women with the highest dietary nitrite intake had about a twofold risk of thyroid cancer (RR(Q4) = 2.05; 95%CI: 1.20-3.51), but there was not a monotonic trend with increasing intake (p for trend = 0.36). The trend with increasing nitrite intake from animal sources was significant (p for trend = 0.02) and was stronger for nitrite from processed meats (RR(Q4) = 1.96; 95%CI: 1.28-2.99; p for trend < 0.01). Although we did not observe an association for nitrate as hypothesized, our results suggest that women consuming higher levels of nitrite from animal sources, particularly from processed meat, may have an increased risk of thyroid cancer. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.

Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

2014-01-01

The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

Trend in active transportation to school among Swiss school children and its associated factors: three cross-sectional surveys 1994, 2000 and 2005

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Giving the rising trend in childhood obesity in many countries including Switzerland, strategies to increase physical activity such as promoting active school travel are important. Yet, little is known about time trends of active commuting in Swiss schoolchildren and factors associated with changes in walking and biking to school. Methods Between 1994 and 2005, information about mobility behaviour of children aged 6-14 years was collected within three Swiss population based national travel behaviour surveys. Mode of transport to school was reported for 4244 children. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess active school travel time trends and their influencing factors. Results More than 70% of Swiss children walked or biked to school. Nevertheless, the proportion of children biking to school decreased (p = 0.05, linear trend), predominately in urban areas, and motorized transportation increased since 1994 (p = 0.02). Distance to school did not change significantly over time but availability of bikes decreased (p < 0.001) and number of cars per household increased (p < 0.001). The association between survey year and bike use was significantly modified by living in an urban area (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.63 (0.44-0.90), 0.71 (0.49-1.03), respectively for 1994, 2000 and 2005) and by distance to school (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.65 (0.40-1.05), 0.50 (0.23-0.79) for the same years and for children who lived more than a mile away from school). Conclusions Programs to encourage safe biking and to limit car use as mode of transport to school are warranted to stop this trend. PMID:20398320

Trends in ocean colour and chlorophyll concentration from 1889 to 2000, worldwide.

PubMed

Wernand, Marcel R; van der Woerd, Hendrik J; Gieskes, Winfried W C

2013-01-01

Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major 'greenhouse gas', and variations in the concentration of the ocean's phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans--but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of 'the' ocean.

Adjusted regression trend test for a multicenter clinical trial.

PubMed

Quan, H; Capizzi, T

1999-06-01

Studies using a series of increasing doses of a compound, including a zero dose control, are often conducted to study the effect of the compound on the response of interest. For a one-way design, Tukey et al. (1985, Biometrics 41, 295-301) suggested assessing trend by examining the slopes of regression lines under arithmetic, ordinal, and arithmetic-logarithmic dose scalings. They reported the smallest p-value for the three significance tests on the three slopes for safety assessments. Capizzi et al. (1992, Biometrical Journal 34, 275-289) suggested an adjusted trend test, which adjusts the p-value using a trivariate t-distribution, the joint distribution of the three slope estimators. In this paper, we propose an adjusted regression trend test suitable for two-way designs, particularly for multicenter clinical trials. In a step-down fashion, the proposed trend test can be applied to a multicenter clinical trial to compare each dose with the control. This sequential procedure is a closed testing procedure for a trend alternative. Therefore, it adjusts p-values and maintains experimentwise error rate. Simulation results show that the step-down trend test is overall more powerful than a step-down least significant difference test.

Emerging and continuing trends in psychotherapy: views from an editor's eye.

PubMed

Gelso, Charles J

2011-06-01

It is proposed that six major trends in psychotherapy have continued or emerged over the course of the author's editorship of Psychotherapy, the past seven years. These trends are (a) the increasing integration of techniques and the therapeutic relationship; (b) increasing focus on theoretical integration; (c) increasing efforts at research-practice integration; (d) increases in more specific, integrative reviews; (e) integration of biological, neuroscience understandings; and (f) integration of diversity and cultural considerations into psychotherapy. Each trend is described and its impact on the field is discussed. Cautions about each trend are also noted. The six trends are discussed in the context of integration.

Rising trends of dissolved organic matter in drinking-water reservoirs as a result of recovery from acidification in the Ore Mts., Czech Republic.

PubMed

Oulehle, Filip; Hruska, Jakub

2009-12-01

The concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), a common proxy for dissolved organic matter (DOM), was measured at seven drinking-water reservoirs and four streams between 1969 and 2006. Nine of them showed significant DOM increases (median COD change +0.08 mg L(-1) yr(-1)). Several potential drivers of these trends were considered, including air temperature, rainfall, land-use and water sulfate concentration. Temperature and precipitation influenced inter-annual variations, but not long-term trends. The long-term DOM increase was significantly associated with declines of acidic deposition, especially sulfur deposition. Surface water sulfate concentrations decreased from a median of 62 mg L(-1)-27 mg L(-1) since 1980. The magnitude of DOM increase was positively correlated with average DOM concentration (R(2) = 0.79, p < 0.001). Simultaneously, DOM concentration was positively correlated with the proportion of Histosols within the catchments (R(2) = 0.79, p < 0.001). A focus on the direct removal of DOM by water treatment procedures rather than catchment remediation is needed.

Measuring consistent masses for 25 Milky Way globular clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimmig, Brian; Seth, Anil; Ivans, Inese I.

2015-02-01

We present central velocity dispersions, masses, mass-to-light ratios (M/Ls ), and rotation strengths for 25 Galactic globular clusters (GCs). We derive radial velocities of 1951 stars in 12 GCs from single order spectra taken with Hectochelle on the MMT telescope. To this sample we add an analysis of available archival data of individual stars. For the full set of data we fit King models to derive consistent dynamical parameters for the clusters. We find good agreement between single-mass King models and the observed radial dispersion profiles. The large, uniform sample of dynamical masses we derive enables us to examine trendsmore » of M/L with cluster mass and metallicity. The overall values of M/L and the trends with mass and metallicity are consistent with existing measurements from a large sample of M31 clusters. This includes a clear trend of increasing M/L with cluster mass and lower than expected M/Ls for the metal-rich clusters. We find no clear trend of increasing rotation with increasing cluster metallicity suggested in previous work.« less

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

Identification of trends in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in part of the Indian Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Alok; Ziegler, Alan D.; Wasson, Robert J.; Chow, Winston; Sharma, Mukat L.

2017-04-01

Extreme monsoon rainfall is the primary reason of floods and other secondary hazards such as landslides in the Indian Himalaya. Understanding the phenomena of extreme monsoon rainfall is therefore required to study the natural hazards. In this work, we study the characteristics of extreme monsoon rainfall including its intensity and frequency in the Garhwal Himalaya in India, with a focus on the Mandakini River Catchment, the site of devastating flood and multiple large landslides in 2013. We have used two long term rainfall gridded data sets: the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) product with daily rainfall data from 1951-2007 and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) product with daily rainfall data from 1901 to 2013. Two methods of Mann Kendall and Sen Slope estimator are used to identify the statistical significance and magnitude of trends in intensity and frequency of extreme monsoon rainfall respectively, at a significance level of 0.05. The autocorrelation in the time series of extreme monsoon rainfall is identified and reduced using the methods of: pre-whitening, trend-free pre-whitening, variance correction, and block bootstrap. We define extreme monsoon rainfall threshold as the 99th percentile of time series of rainfall values and any rainfall depth greater than 99th percentile is considered as extreme in nature. With the IMD data set, significant increasing trend in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall with slope magnitude of 0.55 and 0.02 respectively was obtained in the north of the Mandakini Catchment as identified by all four methods. Significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 0.3 is found in the middle of the catchment as identified by all methods except block bootstrap. In the south of the catchment, significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 0.86 for pre-whitening method and 0.28 for trend-free pre-whitening and variance correction methods was obtained. Further, increasing trend in frequency with a slope magnitude of 0.01 was identified by three methods except block bootstrap in the south of the catchment. With the APHRODITE data set, we obtained significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 1.27 at the middle of the catchment as identified by all four methods. Collectively, both the datasets show signals of increasing intensity, and IMD shows results for increasing frequency in the Mandakini Catchment. The increasing occurrence of extreme events, as identified here, is becoming more disastrous because of rising human population and infrastructure in the Mandakini Catchment. For example, the 2013 flood due to extreme rainfall was catastrophic in terms of loss of human and animal lives and destruction of the local economy. We believe our results will help understand more about extreme rainfall events in the Mandakini Catchment and in the Indian Himalaya.

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, Marco; Doherty, Sarah; Fettweis, Xavier; Alexander, Patrick; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-01-01

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

Response of Antarctic ice shelf melt to SAM trend and possible feedbacks with the ice-dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Gallée, Hubert; Spence, Paul; Cornford, Stephen L.; Le Sommer, Julien; Durand, Gaël

2017-04-01

The observed positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may warm the Southern Ocean sub-surface through decreased Ekman downward pumping. Subsequent change in ice-shelves melt has been suggested to trigger glacier acceleration in West Antarctica. Here we use a regional ocean model configuration of the Amundsen Sea that includes interactive ice-shelf cavities. Our results show that the inclusion of ice-shelves changes the ocean response to the projected SAM trend, i.e. it typically inhibits a part of the SAM-induced subsurface warming. Heat budget analysis has been used to propose responsible mechanisms. Regarding Thwaites and Pine Island, sub ice-shelf melt increases above 400m by approximately 40% for Thwaites and 10% for Pine Island and decreases by up to 10% below in response to ocean temperature changes driven by the projected SAM trend. The melt sensitivity to poleward shifting winds is nonetheless small compared to the sensitivity to an ice-sheet instability, i.e. to a projected change in the shape of ice-shelf cavities. For instance, the sub ice-shelf melt are doubled near the grounding line of some glaciers in response to the largest grounding line retreat projected for 2100. Large increase in basal melt close to the grounding line could largely impact instability and glacier acceleration. Our work suggests the need for including ice shelves into ocean models, and to couple ocean models to ice-sheet models in climate projections.

Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowska, Miroslawa

2017-12-01

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.

Trends in nitrate and dissolved-solids concentrations in ground water, Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, 1985-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosen, Michael R.

2003-01-01

Analysis of trends in nitrate and total dissolved-solids concentrations over time in Carson Valley, Nevada, indicates that 56 percent of 27 monitoring wells that have long-term records of nitrate concentrations show increasing trends, 11 percent show decreasing trends, and 33 percent have not changed. Total dissolved-solids concentrations have increased in 52 percent of these wells and are stable in 48 percent. None of these wells show decreasing trends in total dissolved-solids concentrations. The wells showing increasing trends in nitrate and total dissolved-solids concentrations were always in areas that use septic waste-disposal systems. Therefore, the primary cause of these increases is likely the increase in septic-tank usage over the past 40 years.

A Hangover and a One-Night Stand: Alcohol and Risky Sexual Behaviour among Female Students at an Australian University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilchrist, Heidi; Smith, Kylie; Magee, Christopher A.; Jones, Sandra

2012-01-01

Excessive alcohol consumption and heavy episodic drinking is increasingly common among female university students. This trend is concerning given that excessive alcohol consumption and binge drinking have several adverse effects, including increased levels of risky sexual behaviour. The findings presented here are the first step in establishing an…

Grandparents Living with Children: State-Level Data from the American Community Survey. Research Brief. Publication #2012-30

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphey, David; Cooper, Mae; Moore, Kristin A.

2012-01-01

In recent years, increasing numbers of grandparents in the U.S. are living with their grandchildren, and many grandparents are responsible for their care. These trends can be attributed to a number of factors, including increasing numbers of single-parent families, continued high rates of marriage dissolution, parents' incarceration, parental…

Integrated Water Resource Management: A Platform for Higher Education Institutions to Meet Complex Sustainability Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Neil; Larsen, Rasmus Kløcker

2013-01-01

Higher education institutions in Sweden are increasingly exposed to international market conditions and rising competition from a more mobile student body. This increases the need for universities to adapt to their social and economic environment and to their clients, including the political trends and financial opportunities in Sweden and EU, if…

Incidence trends of adenocarcinoma of the cervix in 13 European countries.

PubMed

Bray, Freddie; Carstensen, Bendix; Møller, Henrik; Zappa, Marco; Zakelj, Maja Primic; Lawrence, Gill; Hakama, Matti; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2005-09-01

Rapid increases in cervical adenocarcinoma incidence have been observed in Western countries in recent decades. Postulated explanations include an increasing specificity of subtype-the capability to diagnose the disease, an inability of cytologic screening to reduce adenocarcinoma, and heterogeneity in cofactors related to persistent human papillomavirus infection. This study examines the possible contribution of these factors in relation with trends observed in Europe. Age-period-cohort models were fitted to cervical adenocarcinoma incidence trends in women ages <75 in 13 European countries. Age-adjusted adenocarcinoma incidence rates increased throughout Europe, the rate of increase ranging from around 0.5% per annum in Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland to >/=3% in Finland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The increases first affected generations born in the early 1930s through the mid-1940s, with risk invariably higher in women born in the mid-1960s relative to those born 20 years earlier. The magnitude of this risk ratio varied considerably from around 7 in Slovenia to almost unity in France. Declines in period-specific risk were observed in United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden, primarily among women ages >30. Whereas increasing specificity of subtype with time may be responsible for some of the increases in several countries, the changing distribution and prevalence of persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus types, alongside an inability to detect cervical adenocarcinoma within screening programs, would accord with the temporal profile observed in Europe. The homogeneity of trends in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in birth cohort is consistent with the notion that they share a similar etiology irrespective of the differential capability of screen detection. Screening may have had at least some impact in reducing cervical adenocarcinoma incidence in several countries during the 1990s.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Trends in energy intake among Korean adults, 1998-2015: Results from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PubMed

Yun, Sungha; Kim, Hyun Ja; Oh, Kyungwon

2017-04-01

Assessing changes in energy intake and dietary sources is important to understand trends in the prevalence of obesity. Thus, we examined trends in energy intake and its nutrient and food sources in Korean adults from 1998 through 2015. This study included 70,769 subjects aged ≥ 19 years who completed a nutrition survey. Subject data were obtained from the 1998, 2001, 2005, 2007-2009, 2010-2012, and 2013-2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Dietary intake was assessed by a 1-day 24-hour recall method. In men, the daily energy intake significantly increased from 2,196 kcal in 1998 to 2,489 kcal in 2013-2015 ( P for trend < 0.0001). However, the daily energy intake among women did not change significantly over the same period ( P for trend = 0.5772). The percentages of energy intake from animal foods (e.g., meat and milk) and beverages increased during the study period in both men and women. However, the percentage of energy intake from plant foods decreased due to a marked decrease in the intake of white rice. Changes in food sources of energy intake led to changes in the nutrient sources of energy intake; for example, the increase of energy intake from fat and decrease of energy intake from carbohydrate. This study suggests that since 1998, energy intake has increased among Korean adult men, but not among women. However, the composition of food and nutrient sources of energy intake has changed in both men and women. Energy intake and its nutrient and food sources should continue to be monitored regularly in the Korean adult population.

Trends in incidence of end-stage renal disease among persons with diagnosed diabetes--Puerto Rico, 1996-2010.

PubMed

Burrows, Nilka Rios; Hora, Israel; Williams, Desmond E; Geiss, Linda S

2014-03-07

During 2010, approximately 6,091 persons aged ≥18 years in Puerto Rico were living with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (i.e., kidney failure that requires regular dialysis or kidney transplantation for survival). This included 1,462 persons who began treatment for ESRD in 2010. Diabetes is the leading cause of ESRD in Puerto Rico, accounting for 66% of new cases in adults, followed by hypertension, which accounts for 15% of the cases. Although the number of adults initiating ESRD treatment (i.e., dialysis or kidney transplantation) in Puerto Rico each year who have diabetes listed as a primary cause (ESRD-D) has increased since 1996, ESRD-D incidence among adults with diagnosed diabetes has not shown a consistent trend. To assess recent trends in ESRD-D incidence among adults aged ≥18 years in Puerto Rico with diagnosed diabetes and to further examine trends by age group and sex, CDC analyzed 1996-2010 data from the U.S. Renal Data System (USRDS) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). After increasing in the late 1990s, ESRD-D incidence decreased during the 2000s among adult men and among persons aged 18-44 years with diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico. Throughout the period, ESRD-D incidence among adult women and among persons aged 45-64 and ≥75 years with diagnosed diabetes did not show a consistent trend, and ESRD-D incidence among persons aged 65-74 years with diagnosed diabetes increased. Increased awareness of the risk factors for kidney disease and implementation of effective interventions to prevent or delay kidney disease among persons with diagnosed diabetes might decrease ESRD incidence in Puerto Rico, particularly among women and older persons.

Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riordan, B.; Verbyla, D.; McGuire, A.D.

2006-01-01

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration, and permafrost warming. Research from the Seward Peninsula and Kenai Peninsula has demonstrated a substantial landscape-level trend in the reduction of surface water and number of closed-basin ponds. We investigated whether this drying trend occurred at nine other regions throughout Alaska. One study region was from the Arctic Coastal Plain where depp permafrost occurs continuously across the landscape. The other eight study regions were from the boreal forest regions where discontinuous permafrost occurs. Mean annual precipitation across the study regions ranged from 100 to over 700 min yr-1. We used remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 to inventory over 10,000 closed-basin ponds from at least three periods from this time span. We found a reduction in the area and number of shallow, closed-basin ponds for all boreal regions. In contrast, the Arctic Coastal Plain region had negligible change in the area of closed-basin ponds. Since the 1950s, surface water area of closed-basin ponds included in this analysis decreased by 31 to 4 percent, and the total number of closed-basin ponds surveyed within each study region decreased from 54 to 5 percent. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration since the 1950s for all study regions. There was no significant trend in annual precipitation during the same period. The regional trend of shrinking ponds may be due to increased drainage as permafrost warms, or increased evapotranspiration during a warmer and extended growing season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Longitudinal trends in the treatment of abdominal pain in an academic emergency department.

PubMed

Cinar, Orhan; Jay, Loni; Fosnocht, David; Carey, Jessica; Rogers, LeGrand; Carey, Adrienne; Horne, Benjamin; Madsen, Troy

2013-09-01

Abdominal pain is a top chief complaint of patients presenting to Emergency Departments (ED). Historically, uncertainty surrounded correct management. Evidence has shown adequate analgesia does not obscure the diagnosis, making it the standard of care. We sought to evaluate trends in treatment of abdominal pain in an academic ED during a 10-year period. We prospectively evaluated a convenience sample of patients in an urban academic tertiary care hospital ED from September 2000 through April 2010. Adult patients presenting with a chief complaint of abdominal pain were included in this study. Analgesic administration rates and times, pain scores, and patient satisfaction at discharge were analyzed to evaluate trends by year. There were 2,646 patients presenting with abdominal pain who were enrolled during the study period. Rates of analgesic administration generally increased each year from 39.9% in 2000 to 65.5% in 2010 (p value for trend <0.001). Similarly, time to analgesic administration generally decreased by year, from 116 min in 2000 to 81 min in 2009 (p < 0.001). There was no improvement in mean pain scores at discharge by year (p = 0.27) and 48% of patients during the 10-year period still reported moderate to severe pain at discharge. Patient satisfaction with pain treatment increased from a score of 7.1 to 9.0 during the study period (p < 0.005), following the trend of increase in analgesic administration. In patients presenting to the ED with abdominal pain, analgesia administration increased and time to medication decreased during the 10-year period. Despite overall improvements in satisfaction, significant numbers of patients presenting with abdominal pain still reported moderate to severe pain at discharge. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in Penile Prosthetics: Influence of Patient Demographics, Surgeon Volume, and Hospital Volume on Type of Penile Prosthesis Inserted in New York State.

PubMed

Kashanian, James A; Golan, Ron; Sun, Tianyi; Patel, Neal A; Lipsky, Michael J; Stahl, Peter J; Sedrakyan, Art

2018-02-01

Penile prostheses (PPs) are a discrete, well-tolerated treatment option for men with medical refractory erectile dysfunction. Despite the increasing prevalence of erectile dysfunction, multiple series evaluating inpatient data have found a decrease in the frequency of PP surgery during the past decade. To investigate trends in PP surgery and factors affecting the choice of different PPs in New York State. This study used the New York State Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative (SPARCS) data cohort that includes longitudinal information on hospital discharges, ambulatory surgery, emergency department visits, and outpatient services. Patients older than 18 years who underwent inflatable or non-inflatable PP insertion from 2000 to 2014 were included in the study. Influence of patient demographics, surgeon volume, and hospital volume on type of PP inserted. Since 2000, 14,114 patients received PP surgery in New York State; 12,352 PPs (88%) were inflatable and 1,762 (12%) were non-inflatable, with facility-level variation from 0% to 100%. There was an increasing trend in the number of annual procedures performed, with rates of non-inflatable PP insertion decreasing annually (P < .01). More procedures were performed in the ambulatory setting over time (P < .01). Important predictors of device choice were insurance type, year of insertion, hospital and surgeon volume, and the presence of comorbidities. Major influences in choice of PP inserted include racial and socioeconomic factors and surgeon and hospital surgical volume. Use of the SPARCS database, which captures inpatient and outpatient services, allows for more accurate insight into trends in contrast to inpatient sampling alone. However, SPARCS is limited to patients within New York State and the results might not be generalizable to men in other states. Also, patient preference was not accounted for in these analyses, which can play a role in PP selection. During the past 14 years, there has been an increasing trend in inflatable PP surgery for the management of erectile dysfunction. Most procedures are performed in the ambulatory setting and not previously captured by prior studies using inpatient data. Kashanian JA, Golan R, Sun T, et al. Trends in Penile Prosthetics: Influence of Patient Demographics, Surgeon Volume, and Hospital Volume on Type of Penile Prosthesis Inserted in New York State. J Sex Med 2018;15:245-250. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

2018-08-15

The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increasing HIV and decreasing syphilis prevalence in a context of persistently high unprotected anal intercourse, six consecutive annual surveys among men who have sex with men in Guangzhou, China, 2008 to 2013.

PubMed

Zhong, Fei; Liang, Boheng; Xu, Huifang; Cheng, Weibin; Fan, Lirui; Han, Zhigang; Liang, Caiyun; Gao, Kai; Mai, Huixia; Qin, Faju; Zhao, Jinkou; Ling, Li

2014-01-01

Previous studies have reported a possibly increasing HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. However there have been limited systematic analyses of existing surveillance data to learn the trend of HIV prevalence and factors driving the trend. The aims of this study were to examine the trend of HIV prevalence among MSM in Guangzhou and to explore the role of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) in the trend. Snow-ball sampling was applied in the subject recruitment for the annual serological and behavioral surveys among MSM from 2008 to 2013. Data collected in the behavioral survey include demographic information, HIV related sexual behavior with men and women, access to HIV prevention services, and symptoms of sexually transmitted infections. Chi-square test was used to analyze the trend of HIV prevalence. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted to test the factors associated with HIV infection. HIV prevalence increased significantly from 5.0% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2013 while syphilis prevalence decreased from 17.4% to 3.3% in the same period. UAI rates were high and stable in every single year, ranging from 54.5% to 62.0%. Those who were having UAI (OR = 1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26-2.58), being migrants, having more than 10 partners, and infected with syphilis had higher risk for HIV infection. HIV epidemic is expanding in Guangzhou. The persistently high UAI may have played a major role in the increasing trend of HIV prevalence. Targeted prevention program should be conducted among MSM who are migrants, low educational level, syphilis infected, or having multiple partners to encourage HIV test and change UAI behavior. The general high UAI calls for tailored intervention program to promote healthy culture and form a safe sex social norm in the MSM community.

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

Trends in dietary carbohydrate consumption from 1991 to 2008 in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort.

PubMed

Makarem, Nour; Scott, Marc; Quatromoni, Paula; Jacques, Paul; Parekh, Niyati

2014-06-14

The intake of carbohydrates has been evaluated cross-sectionally, but not longitudinally in an ageing American adult population. The aim of the present study was to examine trends in the intake of dietary carbohydrates and their major food sources among the Framingham Heart Study Offspring (FOS) cohort, which had been uniquely tracked for 17 years in the study. The FOS cohort was recruited in 1971-1975. Follow-up examinations were conducted, on average, every 4 years. Dietary data collection began in 1991 (examination 5) using a validated semi-quantitative FFQ. The study included 2894 adults aged ≥ 25 years with complete dietary data in at least three examinations from 1991 to 2008. Descriptive statistics were generated using SAS version 9.3, and a repeated-measures model was used to examine trends in the intake of carbohydrates and their food sources in the whole sample, and by sex and BMI category. Over 17 years of follow-up, the percentage of energy from total carbohydrates (51·0-46·8 %; P for trend < 0·001) and total sugars (18·2-16·6 %; P for trend < 0·001) decreased. There was a decrease in the percentage of energy from fructose (5·4-4·7 %; P for trend < 0·001) and sucrose (9·8-8·8 %; P for trend < 0·001). Dietary fibre intake increased (18·0-19·2 g/d; P for trend < 0·001). The number of weekly servings of yeast bread, soft drinks/soda, cakes/cookies/quick breads/doughnuts, potatoes, milk, pasta, rice and cooked grains, fruit juice/drinks, potato chips/maize chips/popcorn, and lunch foods (e.g. pizzas and burgers) decreased significantly (P for trend < 0·001), while the intake of ready-to-eat cereals, legumes, fruits, dairy products, candy and ice cream/sherbet/frozen yogurt increased significantly (P for trend<0·04). Similar trends were observed when the analyses were stratified by sex and BMI. The present results suggest favourable trends in dietary carbohydrate consumption, but dietary guidelines for fruits, vegetables and fibre were not met in this cohort.

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-08-16

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

Publication trends in the medical informatics literature: 20 years of "Medical Informatics" in MeSH

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to identify publication output, and research areas, as well as descriptively and quantitatively characterize the field of medical informatics through publication trend analysis over a twenty year period (1987–2006). Methods A bibliometric analysis of medical informatics citations indexed in Medline was performed using publication trends, journal frequency, impact factors, MeSH term frequencies and characteristics of citations. Results There were 77,023 medical informatics articles published during this 20 year period in 4,644 unique journals. The average annual article publication growth rate was 12%. The 50 identified medical informatics MeSH terms are rarely assigned together to the same document and are almost exclusively paired with a non-medical informatics MeSH term, suggesting a strong interdisciplinary trend. Trends in citations, journals, and MeSH categories of medical informatics output for the 20-year period are summarized. Average impact factor scores and weighted average impact factor scores increased over the 20-year period with two notable growth periods. Conclusion There is a steadily growing presence and increasing visibility of medical informatics literature over the years. Patterns in research output that seem to characterize the historic trends and current components of the field of medical informatics suggest it may be a maturing discipline, and highlight specific journals in which the medical informatics literature appears most frequently, including general medical journals as well as informatics-specific journals. PMID:19159472

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001-2014.

PubMed

Souza, Eliana Amorim de; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8-1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9-4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3-6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1-4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females.

Smoking among adolescents in Muenster, Germany: increase in prevalence (1995-2000) and relation to tobacco advertising.

PubMed

Maziak, Wasim; Rzehak, Peter; Keil, Ulrich; Weiland, Stephan K

2003-02-01

Understanding patterns and trends of smoking among youths is of major importance for the assessment of the burden of smoking in the society and efforts to decrease it. The aims were to determine the prevalence and trends of smoking among adolescents in Muenster, Germany, and to assess its relation to youths' awareness of tobacco advertisement. Information on smoking habits was collected during two school-based surveys (1994/1995 and 1999/2000) of 12- to 15-year-old adolescents (3934 students in 1994/5 and 4028 students in 1999/2000) in Muenster, Germany. In addition, in 1994/1995 information about youths' awareness and appreciation of tobacco advertisement was collected. During the 5-year period, the prevalence of current smoking increased from 21.3 to 28.3%, and daily smoking increased from 10.0 to 14.2%. Among girls, daily smoking increased by 62% during this period. Almost all participants (94%) in 1994/1995 knew a tobacco brand, and appreciation of tobacco advertisement was strongly associated with the frequency of smoking. Smoking is increasing among adolescents in Germany especially among girls. These data are a cause of concern and call for efforts to reverse these trends, which should include a ban on tobacco advertisement in Germany.

Trends in musculoskeletal disorders and related health care utilization among conscripts in Finland, 1967-2006.

PubMed

Frilander, Heikki; Miranda, Helena; Mutanen, Pertti; Martelin, Tuija; Pihlajamäki, Harri; Viikari-Juntura, Eira

2012-09-01

The aim was to investigate time trends in musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) among Finnish conscripts over a period of 40 years. A nationally representative health examination survey (the Health 2000 study) was carried out in 2000-2001 among 10,000 adult Finns. All 18- to 50-year-old men were further sampled (n = 2674) and those with completion of the 6 to 12 month compulsory service were included. (n = 2296). Time trends in consultations because of MSDs during service and findings at call-up examinations were analysed. From 1967 to 2006 altogether 4872 MSD-related consultations were done, most commonly because of problems in the ankle or foot, knee, or back. The proportion of conscripts visiting military health care because of MSDs increased 1.6-fold (from 44 to 72%). The average number of MSD-related consultations per conscript tripled. The proportion of conscripts with > or = 6 consultations increased 5-fold and those seeking care for multisite symptoms increased 10-fold. No increase in symptoms or findings before service could be seen at preservice examinations. Conscripts seek care because of musculoskeletal symptoms considerably more often nowadays than before. More attention should be focused to the prevention of traumatic and overexertion injuries of the lower limbs, although the reasons for increasing careseeking should be further investigated.

Climate trends and projections for the Andean Altiplano and strategies for adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, C.; Thibeault, J.; Gilles, J. L.; García, M.; Seth, A.

2013-04-01

Climate variability and change impact production in rainfed agricultural systems of the Bolivian highlands. Maximum temperature trends are increasing for the Altiplano. Minimum temperature increases are significant in the northern region, and decreases are significant in the southern region. Producers' perceptions of climate hazards are high in the central region, while concerns with changing climate and unemployment are high in the north. Similar high-risk perceptions involve pests and diseases in both regions. Altiplano climate projections for end-of-century highlights include increases in temperature, extreme event frequency, change in the timing of rainfall, and reduction of soil humidity. Successful adaptation to these changes will require the development of links between the knowledge systems of producers and scientists. Two-way participatory approaches to develop capacity and information that involve decision makers and scientists are appropriate approaches in this context of increased risk, uncertainty and vulnerability.

Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of sampling.   PMID:9764107

The last decades and matrimonial changes.

PubMed

Trost, J

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on changes in fertility, marriage patterns, cohabitation, divorce, and separation in Western European countries over the past few decades. Major trends discussed include the decline in fertility and marriage rates and the increase in nonmarital cohabitation, divorce, and separation.

The Kept University.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Press, Eyal; Washburn, Jennifer

2000-01-01

Examines the trend of increasing collaboration between American universities and corporations, including issues such as the academic-industrial complex, secrecy and science, the university as a business/commercial enterprise, who controls the research agenda, downsizing the humanities, and on-line marketing of course material. Expresses concerns…

Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan.

PubMed

Morisaki, Naho; Urayama, Kevin Yuji; Yoshii, Keisuke; Subramanian, S V; Yokoya, Susumu

2017-10-01

Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s. We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan. LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014. Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

PubMed

Franco, Manuel; Bilal, Usama; Orduñez, Pedro; Benet, Mikhail; Morejón, Alain; Caballero, Benjamín; Kennelly, Joan F; Cooper, Richard S

2013-04-09

To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

Monitoring over-the-counter medication sales for early detection of disease outbreaks--New York City.

PubMed

Das, Debjani; Metzger, K; Heffernan, R; Balter, S; Weiss, D; Mostashari, F

2005-08-26

Over-the-counter (OTC) medications are frequently used during the initial phase of illness, and increases in their sales might serve as an early indicator of communitywide disease outbreaks. Since August 2002, the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) has tracked OTC medication sales to enhance detection of natural and intentional infectious disease outbreaks. This report describes the surveillance system and presents results from retrospective analyses and a comparison between citywide trends in OTC medication sales and emergency department (ED) visits. Sales data transmitted daily to DOHMH are categorized into two groups: influenza-like illness (ILI), which includes cough and influenza medications, and gastrointestinal illness (GI), which includes major brand and generic antidiarrheals. Cyclical, linear regression models were used to identify significant (p<0.05) increases in the daily ratio of ILI to analgesics sales (analgesics are used as a denominator in the absence of total sales). Daily and weekly average ratios of GI to analgesic sales were analyzed. Citywide trends in OTC ILI and GI medication sales were compared with ED visits for fever/influenza and diarrhea syndromes. Citywide ILI drug sales were highest during annual influenza epidemics and elevated during spring and fall allergy seasons, similar to trends in the ED fever/influenza syndrome. ILI sales did not consistently provide earlier warning than the ED system of communitywide influenza. GI drug sales increased during the fall and peaked during early winter and after the blackout of August 2003. Unlike ED diarrheal visits, GI medication sales did not substantially increase during late winter (February-March). Citywide OTC medication sales can provide indications of communitywide illness, including annual influenza epidemics. Antidiarrheal medication sales were more sensitive to increases in GI caused by norovirus and influenza than illness caused by rotavirus. OTC medication sales can be considered as an adjunct syndromic surveillance system but might not be as sensitive as ED systems.

Increasing antimicrobial resistance in clinical isolates of Staphylococcus intermedius group bacteria and emergence of MRSP in the UK.

PubMed

Beever, L; Bond, R; Graham, P A; Jackson, B; Lloyd, D H; Loeffler, A

2015-02-14

Frequencies of antimicrobial resistance were determined amongst 14,555 clinical Staphylococcus intermedius group (SIG) isolates from UK dogs and cats to estimate resistance trends and quantify the occurrence of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP). Reports from two diagnostic laboratories (13,313 general submissions, 1242 referral centre only submissions) were analysed retrospectively (2003/2006-2012). MRSP were defined by phenotypic resistance to meticillin and concurrent broad β-lactam resistance; a subset was confirmed genetically (SIG-specific nuc and mecA). Trends were analysed by Cochran-Armitage test. Resistance remained below 10 per cent for cefalexin, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and the fluoroquinolones. Increasing resistance trends were seen in both laboratories for ampicillin/amoxicillin (both P<0.001), cefovecin (both P<0.046) and enrofloxacin (both P<0.02). Resistance to cefalexin increased over time in referral hospital isolates (P<0.001) to clindamycin (P=0.01) and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (P=0.001) amongst general laboratory submissions. Overall, 106 MRSP were isolated (0.7 per cent of submissions) including 32 (2.6 per cent of submissions, all genetically confirmed) from the referral centre population (inter-laboratory difference P<0.001). Against a background of widely susceptible SIG isolates, a new trend of increasing resistance to important antimicrobials was identified overtime and the emergence of MRSP from UK clinical cases was confirmed. Attention to responsible use of antibacterial therapy in small animal practice is urgently needed. British Veterinary Association.

Gender Authorship Trends of Plastic Surgery Research in the United States.

PubMed

Silvestre, Jason; Wu, Liza C; Lin, Ines C; Serletti, Joseph M

2016-07-01

An increasing number of women are entering the medical profession, but plastic surgery remains a male-dominated profession, especially within academia. As academic aspirations and advancement depend largely on research productivity, the authors assessed the number of articles authored by women published in the journal Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery. Original articles in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery published during the years 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, and 2014 were analyzed. First and senior authors with an M.D. degree and U.S. institutional affiliation were categorized by gender. Authorship trends were compared with those from other specialties. Findings were placed in the context of gender trends among plastic surgery residents in the United States. The percentage of female authors in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery increased from 2.4 percent in 1970 to 13.3 percent in 2014. Over the same time period, the percentage of female plastic surgery residents increased from 2.6 percent to 32.5 percent. By 2014, there were more female first authors (19.1 percent) than senior authors (7.7 percent) (p < 0.001). As a field, plastic surgery had fewer female authors than other medical specialties including pediatrics, obstetrics and gynecology, general surgery, internal medicine, and radiation oncology (p < 0.05). The increase in representation of female authors in plastic surgery is encouraging but lags behind advances in other specialties. Understanding reasons for these trends may help improve gender equity in academic plastic surgery.

Temporal trends in physical activity: a systematic review.

PubMed

Knuth, Alan G; Hallal, Pedro C

2009-09-01

In spite of all accumulated scientific knowledge on the benefits of physical activity (PA) for health, high rates of sedentary lifestyle are still observed worldwide. The aim of this study was to systematically review articles on temporal trends of PA and fitness, with emphasis on differences between children/ adolescents and adults. An electronic search at the Medline/PubMed database was carried out using the following combination of keywords: temporal trends or trends or surveillance or monitoring and PA or exercise or physical fitness or motor activity or sedentary or fitness. By using this strategy, 23,088 manuscripts were detected. After examination, 41 articles fulfilled all inclusion criteria, and were, therefore, included. The data currently available in the literature for adults shows that leisure-time activity levels tend to be increasing over time, while occupational-related PA is decreasing over time. Youth PA seems to be decreasing over time, including a lower level of activity in physical education classes. As a consequence, fitness levels are also declining. PA surveillance must be strongly encouraged in all settings and age groups. Special attention must be paid to low and middle-income countries, where PA surveillance is virtually inexistent.

Echoes of the Past, Glimpses of the Future - Ongoing Trends in Assurance of EEE Parts for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sampson, Michael J.

2017-01-01

This presentation will review some past NASA presentations that had identified challenges and future trends in the assurance of Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts for spaceflight applications. It will contrast the concerns expressed in those presentations with the challenges of today and identify trends that give insight into the future. Common themes include the use of commercial parts, limited technical and physical resources, the pace of technology change and the difficulties in handling and testing individual parts as they become smaller and more complex. Some options for dealing with these challenges will be suggested to accommodate increasing numbers of smallsats, cubesats, constellations and other disruptive concepts, as space becomes more and more commercialized.

Publication Trends in Model Organism Research

PubMed Central

Dietrich, Michael R.; Ankeny, Rachel A.; Chen, Patrick M.

2014-01-01

In 1990, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) gave some organisms special status as designated model organisms. This article documents publication trends for these NIH-designated model organisms over the past 40 years. We find that being designated a model organism by the NIH does not guarantee an increasing publication trend. An analysis of model and nonmodel organisms included in GENETICS since 1960 does reveal a sharp decline in the number of publications using nonmodel organisms yet no decline in the overall species diversity. We suggest that organisms with successful publication records tend to share critical characteristics, such as being well developed as standardized, experimental systems and being used by well-organized communities with good networks of exchange and methods of communication. PMID:25381363

Improving trends in gender disparities in the Department of Veterans Affairs: 2008-2013.

PubMed

Whitehead, Alison M; Czarnogorski, Maggie; Wright, Steve M; Hayes, Patricia M; Haskell, Sally G

2014-09-01

Increasing numbers of women veterans using Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) services has contributed to the need for equitable, high-quality care for women. The VA has evaluated performance measure data by gender since 2006. In 2008, the VA launched a 5-year women's health redesign, and, in 2011, gender disparity improvement was included on leadership performance plans. We examined data from VA Office of Analytics and Business Intelligence quarterly gender reports for trends in gender disparities in gender-neutral performance measures from 2008 to 2013. Through reporting of data by gender, leadership involvement, electronic reminders, and population management dashboards, VA has seen a decreasing trend in gender inequities on most Health Effectiveness Data and Information Set performance measures.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, C.A.; Sheavly, S.B.; Rugg, D.J.; Erdmann, Eric S.

2010-01-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. ?? 2010.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007.

PubMed

Ribic, Christine A; Sheavly, Seba B; Rugg, David J; Erdmann, Eric S

2010-08-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Differentiating surface water change from seasonal and inter-annual variability in North Western Canada using multi-decadal time series of data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, M.; Loboda, T. V.

2017-12-01

Over the last several decades, warming in the Arctic has outpaced the already impressiveincreases in global mean temperatures. The impact of these increases in temperature has beenobserved in a multitude of ecological changes in North American tundra including changes invegetative cover, depth of active layer, and surface water extent. The low topographic relief andcontinuous permafrost create an ideal environment for the formation of small water bodies—adefinitive feature of tundra surface. In this study, water bodies in Nunavut territory in northernCanada were mapped using a long-term record of remotely sensed observations at 30 m spatialresolution from the Landsat suite of instruments. The temporal trajectories of water extent between1985 and 2015 were assessed. Over 675,000 water bodies have been identified over the 31-yearstudy period with over 168,000 showing a significant (p < 0.05) trend in surface area. Approximately55% of water bodies with a significant trend were increasing in size while the remaining 45% weredecreasing in size. The overall net trend for water bodies with a significant trend is 0.009 ha year 1per water body.

Current trends in pharmacy benefit designs: a threat to disease management in chronic complex diseases.

PubMed

Owens, Gary; Emons, Matthew F; Christian-Herman, Jennifer; Lawless, Grant

2007-04-01

With a focus on those patients who are candidates for treatment with biologic agents, we review the impact that current pharmacy benefit trends have on patients with chronic complex diseases and how they affect opportunities for disease management in this unique patient population. Dramatic increases in health care costs have led to a variety of strategies to manage cost. Many of these strategies either limit access to care or increase the patient's responsibility for choosing and paying for care, especially for medications. These strategies have a disproportionate impact on patients with chronic complex diseases, particularly those who require the use of biologic medications. A fundamental prerequisite of disease management has been coverage of disease-modifying therapies. If current pharmacy benefit trends continue, unintended consequences will likely occur including lost opportunities for disease management. Current pharmacy benefit trends could adversely impact disease management, particularly for patients requiring the use of biologic agents. Health plans should consider innovative benefit designs that reflect an appropriate level of cost sharing across all key stake-holders, ensuring appropriate access to needed therapies. Additional research is needed to clarify the value of newer approaches to therapies or benefit design changes.

Trends in pesticide concentrations in corn-belt streams, 1996-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Daniel J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Lorenz, David L.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

Trends in the concentrations of commonly occurring pesticides in the Corn Belt of the United States were assessed, and the performance and application of several statistical methods for trend analysis were evaluated. Trends in the concentrations of 11 pesticides with sufficient data for trend assessment were assessed at up to 31 stream sites for two time periods: 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Pesticides included in the trend analyses were atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, simazine, metribuzin, prometon, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon.The statistical methods applied and compared were (1) a modified version of the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test (SEAKEN), (2) a modified version of the Regional Kendall test, (3) a parametric regression model with seasonal wave (SEAWAVE), and (4) a version of SEAWAVE with adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q). The SEAKEN test is a statistical hypothesis test for detecting monotonic trends in seasonal time-series data such as pesticide concentrations at a particular site. Trends across a region, represented by multiple sites, were evaluated using the regional seasonal Kendall test, which computes a test for an overall trend within a region by computing a score for each season at each site and adding the scores to compute the total for the region. The SEAWAVE model is a parametric regression model specifically designed for analyzing seasonal variability and trends in pesticide concentrations. The SEAWAVE-Q model accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic trends from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use.There was broad, general agreement between unadjusted trends (no adjustment for streamflow effects) identified by the SEAKEN and SEAWAVE methods, including the regional seasonal Kendall test. Only about 10 percent of the paired comparisons between SEAKEN and SEAWAVE indicated a difference in the direction of trend, and none of these had differences significant at the 10-percent significance level. This consistency of results supports the validity and robustness of all three approaches as trend analysis tools. The SEAWAVE method is favored, however, because it has less restrictive data requirements, enabling analysis for more site/pesticide combinations, and can incorporate adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q) with substantially fewer measurements than the flow-adjustment procedure used with SEAKEN.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends is preferable to analysis of non-adjusted trends for evaluating potential effects of changes in pesticide use or management practices because flow-adjusted trends account for the influence of flow-related variability.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends by SEAWAVE-Q showed that all of the pesticides assessed, except simazine and acetochlor, were dominated by varying degrees of concentration downtrends in one or both analysis periods. Atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin—all major corn herbicides, as well as prometon and chlorpyrifos, showed more prevalent concentration downtrends during 1996–2002 compared to 2000–2006. Diazinon had no clear trends during 1996–2002, but had predominantly downward trends during 2000–2006. Acetochlor trends were mixed during 1996–2002 and slightly upward during 2000–2006, but most of the trends were not statistically significant. Simazine concentrations trended upward at most sites during both 1996–2002 and 2000–2006.Comparison of concentration trends to agricultural-use trends indicated similarity in direction and magnitude for acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin. Concentration downtrends for atrazine, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon were steeper than agricultural-use downtrends at some sites, indicating the possibility that agricultural management practices may have increasingly reduced transport to streams (particularly atrazine) or, for chlorpyrifos and diazinon, that nonagricultural uses declined substantially. Concentration uptrends for simazine generally were steeper than agricultural-use uptrends, indicating the possibility that nonagricultural uses of this herbicide increased during the study period.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

International programs - A growing trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bunner, A. N.

1990-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has collaborated successfully in space science missions with a multiplicity of partners, including the European Space Agency, Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Japan, and the Soviet Union, among others. These collaborations generally arise out of common scientific goals and in the interest of economizing to take advantage of skills and capabilities among the partners. A trend towards increased cooperation in space is expected to continue as the global scientific community works together to plan future space science missions and the missions become more sophisticated.

Future trends in commercial and military systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, F. E.

Commercial and military satellite communication systems are addressed, with a review of current applications and typical communication characteristics of the space and earth segments. Drivers for the development of future commercial systems include: the pervasion of digital techniques and services, growing orbit and frequency congestion, demand for more entertainment, and the large potential market for commercial 'roof-top' service. For military systems, survivability, improved flexibility, and the need for service to small mobile terminals are the principal factors involved. Technical trends include the use of higher frequency bands, multibeam antennas and a significant increase in the application of onboard processing. Military systems will employ a variety of techniques to counter both physical and electronic threats. The use of redundant transmission paths is a particularly effective approach. Successful implementation requires transmission standards to achieve the required interoperability among the pertinent networks. For both the military and commercial sectors, the trend toward larger numbers of terminals and more complex spacecraft is still persisting.

HIV trend among Iranian prisoners in 1990s and 2000s; analysis of aggregated data from HIV sentinel sero-surveys

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Using the aggregated data of all sentinel sero-surveys (1991 to 2007), this study aimed to report the HIV trend among Iranian prisoners. Method Overall, we analysed the aggregated data from 397 HIV sero-surveys conducted in 72 prisons (included 155,771 prisoners) from 1991 through 2007. Results The overall HIV prevalence was 2.8% (95% CI: 1.8%-4.3%). In 1998, HIV prevalence dramatically increased to 4.5% (95% CI: 1.1%-16.8%), which later became stable at level of 2.8%. Prisons were so heterogeneous regarding HIV prevalence (0% to 13.2%). Conclusion Since the outbreak, the ministry of health has acknowledged prisoners as one of the high-risk groups for HIV, increased the number of sentinel surveys and on-site harm reduction services to better monitor and response to the HIV epidemic. The downward trend of HIV prevalence after 2005 suggests the effectiveness of such interventions which need to be continued. PMID:24257447

Provision of legal services to persons with HIV or AIDS: barriers and trends.

PubMed

Carey, R

Canadian HIV/AIDS legal clinics address their agendas, funding, activities, and observed trends. The HIV & AIDS Legal Clinic (Ontario) (HALCO) is profiled in the first of a series. HALCO is a poverty law clinic for HIV-positive people with limited financial means in Ontario. The profile of legal problems handled by HALCO includes government assistance payments, inadequate or too-expensive housing, wills and substitute decision making, bankruptcy, human rights, prison health issues, employment concerns, immigration issues, and family law. HALCO has a limited budget, and can only afford one full-time lawyer and one full-time community worker on staff. HALCO is tracking a trend of diminishing legal protections for HIV-positive employees. They have also recorded increased opposition in the insurance industry to cover HIV drug treatment. Medical malpractice litigations are also increasing due to the doctors failing to inform patients of their HIV status or to treat them adequately once they have been notified.

Paleobiology of a Neoproterozoic tidal flat/lagoonal complex: the Draken Conglomerate Formation, Spitsbergen.

PubMed

Knoll, A H; Swett, K; Mark, J

1991-01-01

Carbonates and rare shales of the ca 700-800 Ma old Draken Conglomerate Formation, northeastern Spitsbergen, preserve a record of environmental variation within a Neoproterozoic tidal flat/lagoon complex. Forty-two microfossil taxa have been recognized in Draken rocks, and of these, 39 can be characterized in terms of their paleoenvironmental distributions along a gradient from the supratidal zone to permanently submerged lagoons. Supratidal to subtidal trends include: increasing microbenthic diversity, increasing abundance and diversity of included allochthonous (presumably planktonic) elements, decreasing sheath thickness of mat-building organisms (with significant taphonomic consequences), and an increasing sediment/fossil ratio in fossiliferous rocks. Five principal and several minor biofacies can be distinguished. The paleoecological resolution obtainable in the Draken Conglomerate Formation rivals that achieved for most Phanerozoic fossil deposits. It documents the complexity and diversity of Proterozoic coastal ecosystems and indicates that both environment and taphonomy need to be taken into explicit consideration in attempts to understand evolutionary trends in early fossil record. Three species, Coniunctiophycus majorinum, Myxococcoides distola, and M. chlorelloidea, are described as new; Siphonophycus robustum, Siphonophycus septatum, and Gorgonisphaeridium maximum are proposed as new combinations.

Paleobiology of a Neoproterozoic tidal flat/lagoonal complex: the Draken Conglomerate Formation, Spitsbergen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knoll, A. H.; Swett, K.; Mark, J.

1991-01-01

Carbonates and rare shales of the ca 700-800 Ma old Draken Conglomerate Formation, northeastern Spitsbergen, preserve a record of environmental variation within a Neoproterozoic tidal flat/lagoon complex. Forty-two microfossil taxa have been recognized in Draken rocks, and of these, 39 can be characterized in terms of their paleoenvironmental distributions along a gradient from the supratidal zone to permanently submerged lagoons. Supratidal to subtidal trends include: increasing microbenthic diversity, increasing abundance and diversity of included allochthonous (presumably planktonic) elements, decreasing sheath thickness of mat-building organisms (with significant taphonomic consequences), and an increasing sediment/fossil ratio in fossiliferous rocks. Five principal and several minor biofacies can be distinguished. The paleoecological resolution obtainable in the Draken Conglomerate Formation rivals that achieved for most Phanerozoic fossil deposits. It documents the complexity and diversity of Proterozoic coastal ecosystems and indicates that both environment and taphonomy need to be taken into explicit consideration in attempts to understand evolutionary trends in early fossil record. Three species, Coniunctiophycus majorinum, Myxococcoides distola, and M. chlorelloidea, are described as new; Siphonophycus robustum, Siphonophycus septatum, and Gorgonisphaeridium maximum are proposed as new combinations.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina.

Measuring success: Results from a national survey of recruitment and retention initiatives in the nursing workforce

PubMed Central

Carthon, J. Margo Brooks; Nguyen, Thai-Huy; Chittams, Jesse; Park, Elizabeth; Guevara, James

2015-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to identify common components of diversity pipeline programs across a national sample of nursing institutions and determine what effect these programs have on increasing underrepresented minority enrollment and graduation. Design Linked data from an electronic survey conducted November 2012 to March 2013 and American Association of Colleges of Nursing baccalaureate graduation and enrollment data (2008 and 2012). Participants Academic and administrative staff of 164 nursing schools in 26 states, including Puerto Rico in the United States. Methods Chi-square statistics were used to (1) describe organizational features of nursing diversity pipeline programs and (2) determine significant trends in underrepresented minorities’ graduation and enrollment between nursing schools with and without diversity pipeline programs Results Twenty percent (n = 33) of surveyed nursing schools reported a structured diversity pipeline program. The most frequent program measures associated with pipeline programs included mentorship, academic, and psychosocial support. Asian, Hispanic, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander nursing student enrollment increased between 2008 and 2012. Hispanic/Latino graduation rates increased (7.9%–10.4%, p = .001), but they decreased among Black (6.8%–5.0%, p = .004) and Native American/Pacific Islander students (2.1 %–0.3%, p ≥ .001). Conclusions Nursing diversity pipeline programs are associated with increases in nursing school enrollment and graduation for some, although not all, minority students. Future initiatives should build on current trends while creating targeted strategies to reverse downward graduation trends among Black, Native American, and Pacific Island nursing students. PMID:24880900

Measuring success: results from a national survey of recruitment and retention initiatives in the nursing workforce.

PubMed

Brooks Carthon, J Margo; Nguyen, Thai-Huy; Chittams, Jesse; Park, Elizabeth; Guevara, James

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify common components of diversity pipeline programs across a national sample of nursing institutions and determine what effect these programs have on increasing underrepresented minority enrollment and graduation. Linked data from an electronic survey conducted November 2012 to March 2013 and American Association of Colleges of Nursing baccalaureate graduation and enrollment data (2008 and 2012). Academic and administrative staff of 164 nursing schools in 26 states, including Puerto Rico in the United States. Chi-square statistics were used to (1) describe organizational features of nursing diversity pipeline programs and (2) determine significant trends in underrepresented minorities' graduation and enrollment between nursing schools with and without diversity pipeline programs Twenty percent (n = 33) of surveyed nursing schools reported a structured diversity pipeline program. The most frequent program measures associated with pipeline programs included mentorship, academic, and psychosocial support. Asian, Hispanic, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander nursing student enrollment increased between 2008 and 2012. Hispanic/Latino graduation rates increased (7.9%-10.4%, p = .001), but they decreased among Black (6.8%-5.0%, p = .004) and Native American/Pacific Islander students (2.1 %-0.3%, p ≥ .001). Nursing diversity pipeline programs are associated with increases in nursing school enrollment and graduation for some, although not all, minority students. Future initiatives should build on current trends while creating targeted strategies to reverse downward graduation trends among Black, Native American, and Pacific Island nursing students. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of trends in streamflow and its linkages with rainfall and anthropogenic factors in Gomti River basin of North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abeysingha, N. S.; Singh, Man; Sehgal, V. K.; Khanna, Manoj; Pathak, Himanshu

2016-02-01

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables such as streamflow, rainfall, and temperature provides useful information for effective water resources planning, designing, and management. Trends in observed streamflow at four gauging stations in the Gomti River basin of North India were assessed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope for the 1982 to 2012 period. The relationships between trends in streamflow and rainfall were studied by correlation analyses. There was a gradual decreasing trend of annual, monsoonal, and winter seasonal streamflow ( p < 0.05) from the midstream to the downstream of the river and also a decreasing trend of annual streamflow for the 5-year moving averaged standardized anomalies of streamflow for the entire basin. The declining trend in the streamflow was attributed partly to the increased water withdrawal, to increased air temperature, to higher population, and partly to significant reducing trend of post monsoon rainfall especially at downstream. Upstream gauging station showed a significant increasing trend of streamflow (1.6 m3/s/year) at annual scale, and this trend was attributed to the significant increasing trend of catchment rainfall (9.54 mm/year). It was further evident in the significant coefficient of positive correlation ( ρ = 0.8) between streamflow and catchment rainfall. The decreasing trend in streamflow and post-monsoon rainfall especially towards downstream area with concurrent increasing trend of temperature indicates a drying tendency of the Gomti River basin over the study period. The results of this study may help stakeholders to design streamflow restoration strategies for sustainable water management planning of the Gomti River basin.

Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

PubMed

Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

2015-01-01

In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal maps and computer modeling, can yield insights about prevention strategies to address childhood obesity.

Temporal trends and factors associated with diabetes mellitus among patients hospitalized with heart failure: Findings from Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry.

PubMed

Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B; Xu, Haolin; DeVore, Adam D; Schulte, Phillip J; Butler, Javed; Yancy, Clyde W; Bhatt, Deepak L; Hernandez, Adrian F; Heidenreich, Paul A; Fonarow, Gregg C

2016-12-01

The contribution of diabetes to the burden of heart failure (HF) remains largely undescribed. Assessing diabetes temporal trends among US patients hospitalized with HF and their relation with quality measures in real-world practice can help to define this burden. Using data from the Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure registry, we assessed temporal trends in diabetes prevalence among patients with HF and in subgroups with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; EF < 40%), borderline EF (HFbEF; 40%≤EF <50%), or preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%), hospitalized between 2005 and 2015. Logistic regression was used to assess whether in-hospital outcomes and HF quality of care were related to trends. Among 364,480 HF hospitalizations, 160,171 had diabetes (44.0% overall, 41.8% in HFrEF, 46.7% in HFbEF, 45.5% in HFpEF). There was a temporal increase in diabetes frequency in HF patients (43.2%-45.8%; P trend <.0001), including among those with HFrEF (42.0%-43.6%; P trend <.0001), HFbEF (46.0%-49.2%; P trend <.0001), or HFpEF (43.6%-46.8%, P trend <.0001). Diabetic patients had a longer hospital stay (adjusted odds ratio 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.16), but lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 0.93 [0.89-0.97]) compared with those without diabetes, with limited differences in quality measures. Temporal trends in diabetes were not associated with in-hospital mortality or length of stay. There were no temporal interactions of most HF quality measures with diabetes status. Approximately 44% of hospitalized HF patients have diabetes, and this proportion has been increasing over the past 10years, particularly among those patients with new-onset HFpEF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A hydrologic and archeologic study of climate change in Al Ain, United Arab Emirates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorgensen, Donald G.; Yasin al-Tikiriti, Walid

2003-01-01

Aridity trends established for Al Ain, United Arab Emirates, for the past 4500 years correlate with the trends of increased well depths and declining groundwater levels. Depth of wells found at archeologic sites at Hili near Al Ain were correlated to groundwater levels. Trends of declining groundwater levels were related to trends of increasing aridity (climate change). The increasing aridity had a pronounced affect on man's development in Al Ain area as well. For example, nonirrigation farming could not be successfully sustained at the end of the Bronze Age. This thwarted the economic development until the falaj (a water conveyance structure) was introduced in the Iron Age. The aridity trends in Al Ain correspond to contemporaneous aridity trends noted in Mesopotamia and the Dead Sea area, as well as the Middle East, Mediterranean, and northern Africa, in general. Other global climatic changes that are contemporaneous with climate change at Al Ain have been noted. The increased aridity (desertification) trends at Al Ain are contemporaneous with increased atmospheric CO 2 trends as reported by Indermuhle et al. [Nature (398) 121].

Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes: a repeat cross-sectional national survey covering the years 2000 to 2010.

PubMed

Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

2014-08-01

In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects with diabetes. Data comprised level of leisure time PA (inactive; moderate active; medium active; high active); smoking; BMI; and alcohol consumption, provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity Surveys. Participants older than 45 years with or without diabetes were included from cross-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p<0.001; women) and from 67.8% to 79.1% (p=0.01; men). The prevalence of daily smokers was reduced from 27.2% to 16.4%, p=0.015, in women with diabetes. In men with diabetes, BMI increased from 27.2 ± 4.0 to 28.6 ± 5.1 kgm(-2), p=0.003, and men who exceeded the maximum recommendation for alcohol consumption increased from 9.4% to 19.0%, p=0.007. The leisure time PA level was reduced in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends may have serious implications for cardiovascular risk in Danish patients with diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air Pollution over North-West Bay of Bengal in the Early Post-Monsoon Season Based on NASA MERRAero Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kishcha, Pavel; DaSilva, Arlindo M.; Starobinets, Boris; Alpert, Pinhas

2013-01-01

The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO). This reanalysis is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model radiatively coupled with GOCART aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from the MODIS sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. Our main finding is that, in October, in the absence of aerosol sources in north-west Bay of Bengal (BoB), MERRAero showed increasing AOT trends over north-west BoB exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin. The Ganges basin is characterized by significant population growth accompanied by developing industry, agriculture, and increasing transportation: this has resulted in declining air quality. MERRAero data for the period 2002-2009 was used to study AOT trends over north-west Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the early post-monsoon season. This season is characterized by aerosol transport from the Ganges basin to north-west BoB by prevailing winds; and still significant rainfall of over 150 mmmonth. Different aerosol components showed strong increasing AOT trends over north-west BoB. The following factors contributed to the increasing AOT trend over the area in question in October: an increasing number of days when prevailing winds blew from land to sea, resulting in a drier environment and an increase in air pollution over north-west BoB; wind convergence was observed over north-west BoB causing the accumulation of aerosol particles over that region, when prevailing winds blew from land to sea. MERRAero aerosol reanalysis can be used on a global scale.

Aerodynamic performance of high turning core turbine vanes in a two dimensional cascade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwab, J. R.

1982-01-01

Experimental and theoretical aerodynamic performance data are presented for four uncooled high turning core turbine vanes with exit angles of 74.9, 75.0, 77.5, and 79.6 degrees in a two dimensional cascade. Data for a more conservative 67.0 degree vane are included for comparison. Correction of the experimental aftermix kinetic energy losses to a common 0.100 centimeter trailing edge thickness yields a linear trend of increased loss from 0.020 to 0.025 as the vane exit angle increases from 67.0 to 79.6 degrees. The theoretical losses show a similar trend. The experimental and theoretical vane surface velocity distributions generally agree within approximately five percent, although the suction surface theoretical velocities are generally higher than the experimental velocities as the vane exit angle increases.

Extent of Atypical Hyperplasia Stratifies Breast Cancer Risk in Two Independent Cohorts of Women

PubMed Central

Degnim, Amy C.; Dupont, William D.; Radisky, Derek C.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Frank, Ryan D.; Frost, Marlene H.; Winham, Stacey J.; Sanders, Melinda E.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Page, David L.; Hoskin, Tanya L.; Vachon, Celine M.; Ghosh, Karthik; Hieken, Tina J.; Denison, Lori A.; Carter, Jodi M.; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Visscher, Daniel W.

2016-01-01

Background Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have a substantially increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Here we report BC risk with AH extent and subtype in two separate cohorts. Methods All samples containing AH were included from two cohorts of benign breast disease, Mayo Clinic and Nashville. Histology review quantified the number of foci of atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) and atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH). BC risk was stratified for number of AH foci within AH subtypes. Results The study included 708 Mayo and 466 Nashville AH subjects. In the Mayo Cohort, increasing foci of AH was associated with a significant increase in risk of BC, both for ADH (RR’s of 2.61, 5.21, and 6.36 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.006 for linear trend) and for ALH (RR’s of 2.56, 3.50, and 6.79 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.001 for linear trend). In the Nashville Cohort, RR’s of BC for ADH were 2.70, 5.17, and 15.06 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci respectively (p<0.001 for linear trend); for ALH, RR’s also increased but not significantly (2.61, 3.48, and 4.02, p=0.148). Combining both Mayo and Nashville samples, risk increased significantly for 1, 2, and 3+ foci: RR’s of 2.65, 5.19, and 8.94 for ADH (p<0.001), and 2.58, 3.49, and 4.97 for ALH (p=0.001). Conclusions In two independent cohort studies of benign breast disease, extent of atypia stratifies long-term breast cancer risk for ADH and ALH. PMID:27352219

The rise of digital direct-to-consumer advertising?: Comparison of direct-to-consumer advertising expenditure trends from publicly available data sources and global policy implications.

PubMed

Mackey, Tim K; Cuomo, Raphael E; Liang, Bryan A

2015-06-19

Pharmaceutical marketing is undergoing a major shift in the United States, in part due to new transparency regulations under the healthcare reform act. Changes in pharmaceutical marketing practices include a possible shift from more traditional forms of direct-to-consumer advertising towards emerging use of Internet-based DTCA ("eDTCA") given the growing importance of digital health or "eHealth." Though legally allowed only in the U.S. and New Zealand, eDTCA poses novel regulatory challenges, as it can cross geopolitical boundaries and impact health systems and populations outside of these countries. We wished to assess whether changes in DTCA and eDTCA expenditure trends was occurring using publicly available pharmaceutical marketing data. DTCA data was analyzed to compare trends in aggregate marketing expenditures and to assess if there were statistically significant differences in trends and magnitudes for data sources and DTCA sub-categories (including eDTCA). This was accomplished using regression lines of DTCA trend data and conducting pairwise comparisons of regression coefficients using t-tests. Means testing was utilized for comparing magnitude of DTCA expenditure. Data from multiple data sources indicate that aggregate DTCA expenditures have slightly declined during the period from 2005-2009 and are consistent with results from other studies. For DTCA sub-categories, television remained the most utilized form of DTCA, though experienced trends of declining expenditures (-13.2 %) similar to other traditional media platforms such as radio (-30.7 %) and outdoor ads (-12.1 %). The only DTCA sub-category that experienced substantial increased expenditures was eDTCA (+109.0 %) and it was the only medium that had statistically significant differences in its marketing expenditure trends compared to other DTCA sub-categories. Our study indicates that traditional DTCA marketing may be on the decline. Conversely, the only DTCA sub-category that experienced significant increases was eDTCA. However, to fully understand this possible shift to "digital" DTCA, improvements in publicly available DTCA data sources are necessary to confirm changing trends and validate existing data. Hence, utilizing the newly implemented U.S. physician-payment expenditure transparency requirements, we advocate for the mandatory disclosure of DTCA/eDTCA in order to inform future domestic and international health policy efforts regarding appropriate regulation of pharmaceutical promotion.

The influence of baseline severity on efficacy of escitalopram and citalopram in the treatment of major depressive disorder: an extended analysis.

PubMed

Lam, R W; Andersen, H F

2006-09-01

To determine the differences between escitalopram and citalopram in the treatment of patients with major depressive disorder across a range of baseline severity of depression using trend analysis. Data from the three placebo-controlled studies comparing escitalopram to citalopram were analyzed. The pre-specified primary outcome variable was MADRS total score; secondary outcomes included Clinical Global Impression-Severity (CGI-S) and -Improvement (CGI-I) scores. All analyses were based on an intent-to-treat (ITT) population and all direct comparisons were done by ANCOVA adjusting for baseline value and centre. Analyses of the pooled data (N=1203) show that, while the difference between citalopram and placebo was approximately constant across the range of baseline severity, the difference between escitalopram and placebo (p=0.0010 for no trend) and between escitalopram and citalopram (p=0.0012 for no trend) became greater, the more severely depressed the patients were at baseline. A similar pattern was apparent with the CGI-S and CGI-I results. There was a significant superiority of escitalopram over citalopram in response rate (defined as > or = 50% decrease in MADRS total score), and this difference increased with increasing baseline severity. These trend analyses thus indicate that the superiority of escitalopram over citalopram is more apparent as the baseline severity of depression increases.

Changes in Landscape Greenness and Climatic Factors over ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Monitoring and quantifying changes in vegetation cover over large areas using remote sensing can be achieved using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of greenness. However, distinguishing gradual shifts in NDVI (e.g. climate change) versus direct and rapid changes (e.g., fire, land development) is challenging as changes can be confounded by time-dependent patterns, and variation associated with climatic factors. In the present study we leveraged a method, that we previously developed for a pilot study, to address these confounding factors by evaluating NDVI change using autoregression techniques that compare results from univariate (NDVI vs. time) and multivariate analyses (NDVI vs. time and climatic factors) for ~7,660,636 1-km2 pixels comprising the 48 contiguous states of the USA, over a 25-year period (1989−2013). NDVI changed significantly for 48% of the nation over the 25-year in the univariate analyses where most significant trends (85%) indicated an increase in greenness over time. By including climatic factors in the multivariate analyses of NDVI over time, the detection of significant NDVI trends increased to 53% (an increase of 5%). Comparisons of univariate and multivariate analyses for each pixel showed that less than 4% of the pixels had a significant NDVI trend attributable to gradual climatic changes while the remainder of pixels with a significant NDVI trend indicated that changes were due to direct factors. Whi

Calibrating the Ordovician Radiation of marine life: implications for Phanerozoic diversity trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, A. I.; Foote, M.

1996-01-01

It has long been suspected that trends in global marine biodiversity calibrated for the Phanerozoic may be affected by sampling problems. However, this possibility has not been evaluated definitively, and raw diversity trends are generally accepted at face value in macroevolutionary investigations. Here, we analyze a global-scale sample of fossil occurrences that allows us to determine directly the effects of sample size on the calibration of what is generally thought to be among the most significant global biodiversity increases in the history of life: the Ordovician Radiation. Utilizing a composite database that includes trilobites, brachiopods, and three classes of molluscs, we conduct rarefaction analyses to demonstrate that the diversification trajectory for the Radiation was considerably different than suggested by raw diversity time-series. Our analyses suggest that a substantial portion of the increase recognized in raw diversity depictions for the last three Ordovician epochs (the Llandeilian, Caradocian, and Ashgillian) is a consequence of increased sample size of the preserved and catalogued fossil record. We also use biometric data for a global sample of Ordovician trilobites, along with methods of measuring morphological diversity that are not biased by sample size, to show that morphological diversification in this major clade had leveled off by the Llanvirnian. The discordance between raw diversity depictions and more robust taxonomic and morphological diversity metrics suggests that sampling effects may strongly influence our perception of biodiversity trends throughout the Phanerozoic.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Pacific Islands

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2011-01-01

The Pacific islands face a variety of impacts as a result of climate change. Already-observed changes include increased average temperatures, coral bleaching, sea level rise and associated coastal erosion, increased intensity of cyclones, and a trend toward drier conditions. In the next century, sea level rise and associated erosion are expected to shrink shorelines...

Huge Increase in Day-Care Workers: A Result of Multiple Societal Changes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bureau of Labor Statistics (DOL), Washington, DC.

Using Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates of employment in day-care establishments, this study analyzes changes in day care over the past 20 years. Growth in day-care employment has been much stronger than that of other industries. Since 1972, employment has increased by nearly 250 per cent. Causes of growth includes changing trends in enrollment…

Time trends in intracranial bleeding associated with direct oral anticoagulants: a 5-year cohort study

PubMed Central

Hogg, Kerstin; Bahl, Bharat; Latrous, Meriem; Scaffidi Argentina, Sarina; Thompson, Jesse; Chatha, Aasil Ayyaz; Castellucci, Lana; Stiell, Ian G.

2015-01-01

Background: Over the past 5 years, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban were approved for stroke prevention. Phase III studies have shown a lower risk of intracranial bleeding with these direct oral anticoagulants than with warfarin; however, there is a lack of real-life data to validate this. We analyzed time trends in atraumatic intracranial bleeding from 2009 to 2013 among patients prescribed oral anticoagulants and those not prescribed oral anticoagulants. Methods: We used ICD-10-CA (enhanced Canadian version of the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems) codes to identify all patients with atraumatic intracranial bleeding who presented to our neurosurgical centre (serving a population of more than 1.2 million). Trained researchers extracted data on anticoagulant medications used in the week before diagnosis of the intracranial bleed. Provincial prescription data for oral anticoagulants were obtained from IMS Brogan CompuScript Market Dynamics. The primary outcome was the time trend in incident intracranial bleeds associated with oral anticoagulation during the period 2009-2013. The secondary outcomes were the time trend in intracranial bleeds not associated with oral anticoagulation and the provincial prescribing patterns for oral anticoagulants during the same period. Results: A total of 2050 patients presented with atraumatic intracranial bleeds during the study period. Of the 371 (18%) prescribed an anticoagulant in the week before presentation, 335 were prescribed an oral anticoagulant. There was an increasing time trend in intracranial bleeding associated with oral anticoagulants (p = 0.009; 6 additional events per year) and in intracranial bleeding not associated with oral anticoagulation (p = 0.06). During 2013, prescriptions for warfarin decreased to 70% of all oral anticoagulant prescriptions in the province, whereas those for dabigatran and rivaroxaban increased to 17% and 12%, respectively. Interpretation: We observed increasing time trends in intracranial bleeding, both associated with and not associated with oral anticoagulants, over the study period. Although aggregate provincial data showed increased prescribing of oral anticoagulants, other more likely explanations for our findings include an aging population or increasing frailty. PMID:26770966

Longitudinal trends in HbA1c and associations with comorbidity and all-cause mortality in Asian patients with type 2 diabetes: A cohort study.

PubMed

Luo, Miyang; Lim, Wei Yen; Tan, Chuen Seng; Ning, Yilin; Chia, Kee Seng; van Dam, Rob M; Tang, Wern Ee; Tan, Ngiap Chuan; Chen, Richard; Tai, E Shyong; Venkataraman, Kavita

2017-11-01

This study examined longitudinal trends in HbA1c in a multi-ethnic Asian cohort of diabetes patients, and the associations of these trends with future risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, end stage renal failure (ESRD) and all-cause mortality. 6079 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Singapore were included. HbA1c measurements for the five years previous to recruitment were used to identify patterns of HbA1c trends. Outcomes were recorded through linkage with the National Disease Registry. The median follow-up for longitudinal trends in HbA1c was 4.1years and for outcomes was between 7.0 and 8.3years. HbA1c patterns were identified using latent class growth modeling, and associations with outcomes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. Four distinct HbA1c patterns were observed; "low-stable" (72·2%), "moderate-stable" (22·0%), "moderate-increase" (2·9%), and "high-decrease" (2·8%). The risk of comorbidities and death was significantly higher in moderate-increase and high-decrease groups compared to the low-stable group; the hazard ratios for stroke, ESRD, and death for moderate increase group were 3.22 (95%CI 1.27-8.15), 4.76 (95%CI 1.92-11.83), and 1.88 (95%CI 1.15-3.07), respectively, and for high-decrease group were 2.16 (95%CI 1.02-4.57), 3.05 (95%CI 1.54-6.07), and 2.79 (95%CI 1.97-3.95), respectively. Individuals in the moderate-increase group were significantly younger, with longer diabetes duration, and greater proportions of Malays and Indians. Deteriorating HbA1c pattern and extremely high initial HbA1c are associated with increased risk of long-term comorbidities and death. Therapeutic interventions to alter longitudinal HbA1c trends may be helpful in reducing this risk. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computing and Office Automation: Changing Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staman, E. Michael

1981-01-01

Trends in computing and office automation and their applications, including planning, institutional research, and general administrative support in higher education, are discussed. Changing aspects of information processing and an increasingly larger user community are considered. The computing literacy cycle may involve programming, analysis, use…

Identification of potentially emerging food safety issues by analysis of reports published by the European Community's Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) during a four-year period.

PubMed

Kleter, G A; Prandini, A; Filippi, L; Marvin, H J P

2009-05-01

The SAFE FOODS project undertakes to design a new approach towards the early identification of emerging food safety hazards. This study explored the utility of notifications filed through RASFF, the European Commission's Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed, to identify emerging trends in food safety issues. RASFF information and alert notifications published in the four-year period of July 2003-June 2007 were assigned to categories of products and hazards. For chronological trend analysis, a basic time unit of three months was chosen. Data within each hazard category were analyzed for chronological trends, relationships between product and hazard categories, regions of origin, and countries filing the notifications. Conspicuous trends that were observed included a rise in the incidence of food contact substances, particularly 2-isopropyl-thioxanthone, as well as of chemical substances migrating from utensils and fraud-related issues. Temporary increases were noted in the incidences of the unauthorized dye Para Red, genetically modified organisms, the pesticide isophenfos-methyl, and herring worm, Anisakis simplex. National and European authorities themselves have signaled these conspicuous trends and taken measures. It is recommended to add complementary data to RASFF data, including safety assessments, risk management measures, background data on hazards and surveillance patterns, for a holistic approach towards early identification of emerging hazards.

Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syed, Atiq U.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2005-01-01

To demonstrate the value of long-term, water-quality monitoring, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a study to evaluate potential trends in water-quality constituents for selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations in Michigan. The goal of this study is to assist the MDEQ in evaluating the effectiveness of water-pollution control efforts and the identification of water-quality concerns. The study included a total of nine NASQAN stations in Michigan. Approximately 28 constituents were analyzed for trend tests. Station selection was based on data availability, land-use characteristics, and station priority for the MDEQ Water Chemistry Monitoring Project. Trend analyses were completed using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall Test in the computer program Estimate Trend (ESTREND), a software program for the detection of trends in water-quality data. The parameters chosen for the trend test had (1) at least a 5-year period of record (2) about 5 percent of the observations censored at a single reporting limit, and (3) 40 percent of the values within the beginning one-fifth and ending one-fifth of the selected period. In this study, a negative trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent, which generally means an improvement in water quality; whereas a positive trend means an increase in concentration and possible degradation of water quality. The results of the study show an overall improvement in water quality at the Clinton River at Mount Clemens, Manistee River at Manistee, and Pigeon River near Caseville. The detected trend for these stations show decreases in concentrations of various constituents such as nitrogen compounds, conductance, sulfate, fecal coliform bacteria, and fecal streptococci bacteria. The negative trend may indicate an overall improvement in agricultural practices, municipal and industrial wastewater-treatment processes, and effective regulations. Phosphorus data for most of the study stations could not be analyzed because of the data limitations for trend tests. The only station with a significant negative trend in total phosphorus concentration is the Clinton River at Mount Clemens. However, scatter-plot analyses of phosphorus data indicate decreasing concentrations with time for most of the study stations. Positive trends in concentration of nitrogen compounds were detected at the Kalamazoo River near Saugatuck and Muskegon River near Bridgeton. Positive trends in both fecal coliform and total fecal coliform were detected at the Tahquamenon River near Paradise. Various different point and nonpoint sources could produce such positive trends, but most commonly the increase in concentrations of nitrogen compounds and fecal coliform bacteria are associated with agricultural practices and sewage-plant discharges. The constituent with the most numerous and geographically widespread significant trend is pH. The pH levels increased at six out of nine stations on all the major rivers in Michigan, with no negative trend at any station. The cause of pH increase is difficult to determine, as it could be related to a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes occurring simultaneously in the environment. Trends in concentration of major ions, such as calcium, sodium, magnesium, sulfate, fluoride, chloride, and potassium, were detected at eight out of nine stations. A negative trend was detected only in sulfate and fluoride concentrations; a positive trend was detected only in calcium concentration. The major ions with the most widespread significant trends are sodium and chloride; three positive and two negative trends were detected for sodium, and three negative and two positive trends were detected for chloride. The negative trends in chloride concentrations outnumbered the positive trends. This result indicates a slight improvement in surface-water quality because chloride as a point source in natural water comes from deicing salt, sewage effluents, industrial wastes, and oil fields. For other major ions, such as magnesium and potassium, both positive and negative trends were detected. These changes in trends indicate changes in surface-water quality caused by a variety of point and non-point sources throughout Michigan, as well as natural changes in the environment.

Epidemiology of hypospadias in Europe: a registry-based study.

PubMed

Bergman, Jorieke E H; Loane, Maria; Vrijheid, Martine; Pierini, Anna; Nijman, Rien J M; Addor, Marie-Claude; Barisic, Ingeborg; Béres, Judit; Braz, Paula; Budd, Judith; Delaney, Virginia; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsøyr, Kari; Martos, Carmen; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O'Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rissmann, Anke; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Wellesley, Diana; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalya; Bakker, Marian K; de Walle, Hermien E K

2015-12-01

Hypospadias is a common congenital malformation. The prevalence of hypospadias has a large geographical variation, and recent studies have reported both increasing and decreasing temporal trends. It is unclear whether hypospadias prevalence is associated with maternal age. To analyze the prevalence and trends of total hypospadias, isolated hypospadias, hypospadias with multiple congenital anomalies, hypospadias with a known cause, and hypospadias severity subtypes in Europe over a 10-year period and to investigate whether maternal age is associated with hypospadias. We included all children with hypospadias born from 2001 to 2010 who were registered in 23 EUROCAT registries. Information on the total number of births and maternal age distribution for the registry population was also provided. We analyzed the total prevalence of hypospadias and relative risks by maternal age. From 2001 to 2010, 10,929 hypospadias cases were registered in 5,871,855 births, yielding a total prevalence of 18.61 per 10,000 births. Prevalence varied considerably between different registries, probably due to differences in ascertainment of hypospadias cases. No significant temporal trends were observed with the exceptions of an increasing trend for anterior and posterior hypospadias and a decreasing trend for unspecified hypospadias. After adjusting for registry effects, maternal age was not significantly associated with hypospadias. Total hypospadias prevalence was stable in 23 EUROCAT registries from 2001 to 2010 and was not significantly influenced by maternal age.

Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

Incidence Trend and Epidemiology of Common Cancers in the Center of Iran.

PubMed

Rafiemanesh, Hosein; Rajaei-Behbahani, Narjes; Khani, Yousef; Hosseini, Sayedehafagh; Pournamdar, Zahra; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Soltani, Shahin; Hosseini, Seyedeh Akram; Khazaei, Salman; Salehiniya, Hamid

2015-07-13

Cancer is a major public health problem in Iran and many other parts of the world. The cancer incidence is different in various countries and in country provinces. Geographical differences in the cancer incidence lead to be important to conduct an epidemiological study of the disease. This study aimed to investigate cancer epidemiology and trend in the province of Qom, located in center of Iran. This is an analytical cross-sectional study carried out based on re-analysis cancer registry report and the disease management center of health ministry from 2004 to 2008 in the province of Qom. To describe incidence time trends, we carried out join point regression analysis using the software Join point Regression Program, Version 4.1.1.1. There were 3,029 registered cases of cancer during 5 years studied. Sex ratio was 1.32 (male to female). Considering the frequency and mean standardized incidence, the most common cancer in women were breast, skin, colorectal, stomach, and esophagus, respectively while in men the most common cancers included skin, stomach, colorectal, bladder, and prostate, respectively. There was an increasing and significant trend, according to the annual percentage change (APC) equal to 8.08% (CI: 5.1-11.1) for all site cancer in women. The incidence trend of all cancers was increasing in this area. Hence, planning for identifying risk factors and performing programs for dealing with the disease are essential.

Trends in matching to urology residency in Canada: are we becoming noncompetitive?

PubMed

Melnyk, Megan; Nelson, Hilary; Mickelson, Jennifer; Macneily, Andrew E

2013-01-01

Urology is perceived as a competitive specialty choice. Declining undergraduate exposure and the preference for "lifestyle specialties" may jeopardize urology's popularity. Our objective was to assess trends in application and matching rates to urology compared with other surgical specialties. We reviewed data collected by Canadian Residency Matching Service (CaRMS) and the Canadian Post-MD Education Registry since expansion in Canadian medical school enrollment began (2002-2011). The following were examined: applicant preference, number of positions, gender patterns, and match results. "Surgery" included general surgery, orthopedics, plastics, ENT, and urology. From 2002 to 2011 CaRMS applicants increased from 1117 to 2528 (126%). The number of applicants selecting surgery first increased from 178 to 338(90%). The number of surgery positions increased from 138 to 275 (100%). Urology positions increased from 15 to 31 (113%). Applicants to urology increased only 40% (30-42). The proportion of all CARMs applicants selecting urology as their first choice decreased from 2.7% (30) to 1.7% (42). The ratio of first choice urology applicants to positions decreased from 2 to 1.35. The probability of matching urology as first choice increased from 50% to 76%. Female medical graduates increased from 51% to 58%. The female applicants selecting surgery first increased from 21% (49) to 41% (173). In contrast, females selecting urology first rose from 13% (4) to 17% (7). Urology in Canada is becoming less competitive. Residency positions have doubled since 2002 whereas the number of applicants remains static. This trend was not reflected in other surgical specialities. Factors accounting for this may include poor undergraduate exposure, demand for specialties with controllable lifestyles, gender shifts in undergraduate medicine, and lack of role models. The need for undergraduate exposure to urology and vetting numbers of residency positions remains a matter of paramount importance. Copyright © 2013 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in obstetric anal sphincter injuries over 10 years.

PubMed

Tyagi, V; Perera, M; Guerrero, K

2013-11-01

Obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS) is a known complication of vaginal delivery and has significant public health issues, as it can cause both short- and long-term morbidity in women. The most commonly reported complications include different grades of faecal/flatus incontinence, pain and sexual dysfunction. In our study, we found a rising trend in OASIS rates in vaginal deliveries, with the rising rate of forceps and the falling rate of SVD, which is at least partly due to increased awareness and training in OASIS. However, there is an actual increase in the number of such tears at vaginal deliveries. Midwifery and obstetric practices have certainly changed over the last decade and we discuss the possible factors, which might be contributing to such a rise.

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Takamitsu; Minobe, Shoshiro; Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis

2017-05-01

Historic observations of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the ocean are analyzed to quantify multidecadal trends and variability from 1958 to 2015. Additional quality control is applied, and the resultant oxygen anomaly field is used to quantify upper ocean O2 trends at global and hemispheric scales. A widespread negative O2 trend is beginning to emerge from the envelope of interannual variability. Ocean reanalysis data are used to evaluate relationships with changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and oxygen solubility (O2,sat). Global O2 decline is evident after the 1980s, accompanied by an increase in global OHC. The global upper ocean O2 inventory (0-1000 m) changed at the rate of -243 ± 124 T mol O2 per decade. Further, the O2 inventory is negatively correlated with the OHC (r = -0.86; 0-1000 m) and the regression coefficient of O2 to OHC is approximately -8.2 ± 0.66 nmol O2 J-1, on the same order of magnitude as the simulated O2-heat relationship typically found in ocean climate models. Variability and trends in the observed upper ocean O2 concentration are dominated by the apparent oxygen utilization component with relatively small contributions from O2,sat. This indicates that changing ocean circulation, mixing, and/or biochemical processes, rather than the direct thermally induced solubility effects, are the primary drivers for the observed O2 changes. The spatial patterns of the multidecadal trend include regions of enhanced ocean deoxygenation including the subpolar North Pacific, eastern boundary upwelling systems, and tropical oxygen minimum zones. Further studies are warranted to understand and attribute the global O2 trends and their regional expressions.

Reduction in myocardial infarction admissions in Liverpool after the smoking ban: potential socioeconomic implications for policymaking

PubMed Central

Liu, Andrew; Guzman Castillo, Maria; Capewell, Simon; Lucy, John; O'Flaherty, Martin

2013-01-01

Objectives To analyse the trends and trend changes in myocardial infraction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) admissions, to investigate the effects of the 2007 smoke-free legislation on these trends, and to consider the policy implications of any findings. Design setting Liverpool (city), UK. Participants Hospital episode statistics data on all 56 995 admissions for CHD in Liverpool between 2004 and 2012 (International Classification of Diseases codes I20–I25 coded as an admission diagnosis within the defined dates). Primary and secondary outcome measures Trend gradient and change points (by trend regressions analysis) in age-standardised MI admissions in Liverpool between 2004 and 2012; by sex and by socioeconomic status. Secondary analysis on CHD admissions. Results A significant and sustained reduction was seen in MI admissions in Liverpool beginning within 1 year of the smoking ban. Comparing 2005/2006 and 2010/2011, the age-adjusted rates for MI admissions fell by 42% (39–45%) (41.6% in men and by 42.6% in women). Trend analysis shows that this is significantly greater than the background trend of decreasing admissions. These reductions appeared consistent across all socioeconomic groups. Interestingly, admission rates for total CHD (including mild to severe angina) increased by 10% (8–12%). Conclusions A dramatic reduction in MI admissions in Liverpool has been observed coinciding with the smoking ban in 2007. Furthermore, the benefits were apparent across the socioeconomic spectrum. Health inequalities were not affected and may even have been reduced. The rapid effects observed with this top-down, environmental policy may further increase its value to policymakers. PMID:24282240

Time series decomposition of remotely sensed land surface temperature and investigation of trends and seasonal variations in surface urban heat islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Jinling; Zhan, Wenfeng; Chen, Yunhao; Wang, Mengjie; Wang, Jinfei

2016-03-01

Previous time series methods have difficulties in simultaneous characterization of seasonal, gradual, and abrupt changes of remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST). This study proposed a model to decompose LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The trend component indicates long-term climate change and land development and is described as a piecewise linear function with iterative breakpoint detection. The seasonal component illustrates annual insolation variations and is modeled as a sinusoidal function on the detrended data. This model is able to separate the seasonal variation in LST from the long-term (including gradual and abrupt) change. Model application to nighttime Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/LST time series during 2000-2012 over Beijing yielded an overall root-mean-square error of 1.62 K between the combination of the decomposed trend and seasonal components and the actual MODIS/LSTs. LST decreased (~ -0.086 K/yr, p < 0.1) in 53% of the study area, whereas it increased with breakpoints in 2009 (~0.084 K/yr before and ~0.245 K/yr after 2009) between the fifth and sixth ring roads. The decreasing trend was stronger over croplands than over urban lands (p < 0.05), resulting in an increasing trend in surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII, 0.022 ± 0.006 K/yr). This was mainly attributed to the trends in urban-rural differences in rainfall and albedo. The SUHII demonstrated a concave seasonal variation primarily due to the seasonal variations of urban-rural differences in temperature cooling rate (related to canyon structure, vegetation, and soil moisture) and surface heat dissipation (affected by humidity and wind).

Investigating International Time Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of Atopic Eczema 1990–2010: A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Deckers, Ivette A. G.; McLean, Susannah; Linssen, Sanne; Mommers, Monique; van Schayck, C. P.; Sheikh, Aziz

2012-01-01

The prevalence of atopic eczema has been found to have increased greatly in some parts of the world. Building on a systematic review of global disease trends in asthma, our objective was to study trends in incidence and prevalence of atopic eczema. Disease trends are important for health service planning and for generating hypotheses regarding the aetiology of chronic disorders. We conducted a systematic search for high quality reports of cohort, repeated cross-sectional and routine healthcare database-based studies in seven electronic databases. Studies were required to report on at least two measures of the incidence and/or prevalence of atopic eczema between 1990 and 2010 and needed to use comparable methods at all assessment points. We retrieved 2,464 citations, from which we included 69 reports. Assessing global trends was complicated by the use of a range of outcome measures across studies and possible changes in diagnostic criteria over time. Notwithstanding these difficulties, there was evidence suggesting that the prevalence of atopic eczema was increasing in Africa, eastern Asia, western Europe and parts of northern Europe (i.e. the UK). No clear trends were identified in other regions. There was inadequate study coverage worldwide, particularly for repeated measures of atopic eczema incidence. Further epidemiological work is needed to investigate trends in what is now one of the most common long-term disorders globally. A range of relevant measures of incidence and prevalence, careful use of definitions and description of diagnostic criteria, improved study design, more comprehensive reporting and appropriate interpretation of these data are all essential to ensure that this important field of epidemiological enquiry progresses in a scientifically robust manner. PMID:22808063

Temporal trends in nitrate and selected pesticides in mid-atlantic ground water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Debrewer, L.M.; Ator, S.W.; Denver, J.M.

2008-01-01

Evaluating long-term temporal trends in regional ground-water quality is complicated by variable hydrogeologic conditions and typically slow flow, and such trends have rarely been directly measured. Ground-water samples were collected over near-decadal and annual intervals from unconfined aquifers in agricultural areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, including fractured carbonate rocks in the Great Valley, Potomac River Basin, and unconsolidated sediments on the Delmarva Peninsula. Concentrations of nitrate and selected pesticides and degradates were compared among sampling events and to apparent recharge dates. Observed temporal trends are related to changes in land use and chemical applications, and to hydrogeology and climate. Insignificant differences in nitrate concentrations in the Great Valley between 1993 and 2002 are consistent with relatively steady fertilizer application during respective recharge periods and are likely related to drought conditions in the later sampling period. Detecting trends in Great Valley ground water is complicated by long open boreholes characteristic of wells sampled in this setting which facilitate significant ground-water mixing. Decreasing atrazine and prometon concentrations, however, reflect reported changes in usage. On the Delmarva Peninsula between 1988 and 2001, median nitrate concentrations increased 2 mg per liter in aerobic ground water, reflecting increasing fertilizer applications. Correlations between selected pesticide compounds and apparent recharge date are similarly related to changing land use and chemical application. Observed trends in the two settings demonstrate the importance of considering hydrogeology and recharge date along with, changing land and chemical uses when interpreting trends in regional ground-water quality. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: time trends of selected exposures

PubMed Central

Dawson, April L.; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A.; Parker, Samantha E.; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-01-01

Background Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). Methods We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 –2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between six weeks and two years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall’s τβ test statistic. Results The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998–2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of SSRIs and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Conclusions Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. PMID:25884728

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: Time trends of selected exposures.

PubMed

Dawson, April L; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A; Parker, Samantha E; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-08-01

Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 to 2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between 6 weeks and 2 years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall's τβ test statistic. The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998 to 2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Breast cancer in México: a 10-year trend analysis on incidence and age at diagnosis].

PubMed

Salinas-Martínez, Ana María; Juárez-Ruiz, Abigail; Mathiew-Quirós, Álvaro; Guzmán-De la Garza, Francisco Javier; Santos-Lartigue, Adriana; Escobar-Moreno, César

2014-01-01

Breast cancer is an important public health problem. Some countries have achieved a downward trend while in others, continues ascending. In México, information on incidence and age at diagnosis is isolated in time, and knowledge on trend analysis is lacking. To examine the 2003-2012 trend of the incidence rate and age at diagnosis of breast cancer in the northeast of México. We also analyze the trend of positivity to nodes, hormone receptors and HER2; and its association with age at diagnosis. This is an epidemiological study of breast cancer patients in a tertiary care hospital in Monterrey, México (n = 3,488). Only new cases with a histology report were included; if this was not available, the cytology result was considered. Trend analysis was performed using the JoinPoint regression program Version 3.5. The breast cancer incidence rate increased from 26.7 to 49.8 per 100,000 between 2003 and 2011 (p < 0.05). The adjusted rate showed an annual percentage rate of change of +6.2% (95%CI 4.2, 8.2). The mean age was 55.7 ± 13.7 years and remained stable over time. Nodes, hormone receptors and HER2 positivity rate also remained stable over time. Age < 50 years increased twice the risk for positivity to nodes (OR 2.0, 95%CI 1.4, 2.7), ER-PR- (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4, 2.4) and ER-PR-HER2- (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.5, 2.5). The 10-year analysis showed a significant upward trend. This study represents a first effort in our country, for determining patterns on incidence and age at diagnosis of breast cancer, as well as that of biomarkers.

Increasing organic C and N fluxes from a northern Boreal river basin - monitoring and modelling suggest climate related controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepistö, A.; Futter, M.; Kortelainen, P.

2012-04-01

Increasing trends in total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in lakes and streams across northern Europe and North America have been reported. Various hypotheses including enhanced decomposition of organic soils, changes in hydrology and flow paths, decreased acid deposition and land use changes have been put forward to explain the widespread occurrence of this phenomenon. Both observational and modelling studies are needed to identify the most important drivers and relevant processes controlling observed trends in TOC concentrations. Typically, TOC concentrations in Finnish rivers and lakes are high. The Simojoki river basin (3160 km2) is located in the northern Boreal zone of Finland and experiences low, declining sulphate deposition and limited other human impacts. Forest harvest, land drainage and ditch maintenance are the main land management activities in the catchment. Long-term changes (30-40 years) and seasonal trends of total organic nitrogen (TON) and carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in the Simojoki river system were studied. Concentrations of TOC and TON increased particularly during high flows. TOC concentrations are slowly but continuously increasing, fluctuating between droughts and wet periods. The highest concentrations were detected in 1998-2000 during a period of very high flows, after the drought period 1994-1997. Trends in concentrations of TOC and TON in Simojoki were not linked to declines in sulphate deposition but were more related to trends in climate and hydrology. The autumn season is particularly sensitive to climate change impacts. The INCA-C model was applied to simulate TOC dynamics in the catchment. Model results showed that climate change driven patterns in runoff and soil moisture and soil temperature were more important than temporal patterns of sulphate deposition and land management in controlling surface water TOC concentrations. The possible factors behind changes of TOC and TON concentrations and increasing fluxes to the coastal areas are discussed.

Environmental Geochemistry and Acid Mine Drainage Evaluation of an Abandoned Coal Waste Pile at the Alborz-Sharghi Coal Washing Plant, NE Iran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jodeiri Shokri, Behshad, E-mail: b.jodeiri@hut.ac.ir; Doulati Ardejani, Faramarz; Ramazi, Hamidreza

In this paper, an abandoned waste coal pile, which is resulted from Alborz-Sharghi coal washing plant, NE of Iran was mineralogically and geochemically characterized to evaluate pyrite oxidation, acid mine drainage (AMD) generation, and trace element mobility. After digging ten trenches and vertical sampling, a quantitative method including the atomic absorption test, and the quality-based methods including optical study were carried out for determination of pyrite fractions in the waste pile. The geochemical results revealed that the fraction of remaining pyrite increased with depth, indicating that pyrite oxidation is limited to the shallower depths of the pile which were confirmedmore » by variations of sulfate, pH, EC, and carbonate with depth of the pile. To evaluate the trend of trace elements and mineralogical constituents of the waste particles, the samples were analyzed by using XRD, ICP-MS, and ICP-OES methods. The results showed the secondary and neutralizing minerals comprising gypsum have been formed below the oxidation zone. Besides, positive values of net neutralization potential indicated that AMD generation has not taken in the waste pile. In addition, variations of trace elements with depth reveal that Pb and Zn exhibited increasing trends from pile surface toward the bottom sampling trenches while another of them such as Cu and Ni had decreasing trends with increasing depth of the waste pile.« less

Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

2018-01-01

Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

Balloon mitral valvuloplasty in the United States: a 13-year perspective.

PubMed

Badheka, Apurva O; Shah, Neeraj; Ghatak, Abhijit; Patel, Nileshkumar J; Chothani, Ankit; Mehta, Kathan; Singh, Vikas; Patel, Nilay; Grover, Peeyush; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Panaich, Sidakpal S; Savani, Ghanshyambhai T; Bhalara, Vipulkumar; Arora, Shilpkumar; Rathod, Ankit; Desai, Harit; Kar, Saibal; Alfonso, Carlos; Palacios, Igor F; Grines, Cindy; Schreiber, Theodore; Rihal, Charanjit S; Makkar, Raj; Cohen, Mauricio G; O'Neill, William; de Marchena, Eduardo

2014-11-01

Incidence and prevalence of mitral stenosis is declining in the US. We performed this study to determine recent trends in utilization, complications, mortality, length of stay, and cost associated with balloon mitral valvuloplasty. Utilizing the nationwide inpatient sample database from 1998 to 2010, we identified patients using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification procedure code for "percutaneous valvuloplasty." Patients ≥18 years of age with mitral stenosis were included. Patients with concomitant aortic, tricuspid, or pulmonic stenosis were excluded. Primary outcome included death and procedural complications. A total of 1308 balloon mitral valvuloplasties (weighted n = 6540) were analyzed. There was a 7.5% decrease in utilization of the procedure from 24.6 procedures/10 million population in 1998-2001 to 22.7 procedures/10 million population in 2008-2010 (P for trend = .098). We observed a 15.9% overall procedural complication rate and 1.7% mortality rate. The procedural complication rates have increased in recent years (P = .001), corresponding to increasing age and burden of comorbidities in patients. The mean cost per admission for balloon mitral valvuloplasty has gone up significantly over the 10 years, from $11,668 ± 1046 in 2001 to $23,651 ± 301 in 2010 (P <.001). In a large cross-sectional study of balloon mitral valvuloplasty in the US, we have reported trends of decreasing overall utilization and increasing procedural complication rates and cost over a period of 13 years. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Alex

2017-04-01

Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a univariate technique, and cannot incorporate information from additional covariates, for example ENSO state or physiographic controls on extreme rainfall within a region. Here, the univariate MQR model is extended to allow the use of multiple covariates. Multivariate monotone quantile regression (MMQR) is based on a single hidden-layer feedforward network with the quantile regression error function and partial monotonicity constraints. The MMQR model is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulations and the estimation and visualization of regional trends in moderate rainfall extremes based on homogenized sub-daily precipitation data at stations in Canada.

Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

2017-12-01

Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly <0.1. Various factors can contribute to discrepancies in water storage trends between models and GRACE, including uncertainties in precipitation, model calibration, storage capacity, and water use in models and uncertainties in GRACE data related to processing, glacier leakage, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The GRACE data indicate that land has a large capacity to store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

Prospective association between alcohol intake and hormone-dependent cancer risk: modulation by dietary fiber intake.

PubMed

Chhim, Anne-Sophie; Fassier, Philippine; Latino-Martel, Paule; Druesne-Pecollo, Nathalie; Zelek, Laurent; Duverger, Lucie; Hercberg, Serge; Galan, Pilar; Deschasaux, Mélanie; Touvier, Mathilde

2015-07-01

Alcohol intake is associated with increased circulating concentrations of sex hormones, which in turn may increase hormone-dependent cancer risk. This association may be modulated by dietary fiber intake, which has been shown to decrease steroid hormone bioavailability (decreased blood concentration and increased sex hormone-binding globulin concentration). However, this potential modulation has not been investigated in any prospective cohort. Our objectives were to study the relation between alcohol intake and the risk of hormone-dependent cancers (breast, prostate, ovarian, endometrial, and testicular) and to investigate whether dietary fiber intake modulated these associations. This prospective observational analysis included 3771 women and 2771 men who participated in the Supplémentation en Vitamines et Minéraux Antioxydants study (1994-2007) and completed at least 6 valid 24-h dietary records during the first 2 y of follow-up. After a median follow-up of 12.1 y, 297 incident hormone-dependent cancer cases, including 158 breast and 123 prostate cancers, were diagnosed. Associations were tested via multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Overall, alcohol intake was directly associated with the risk of hormone-dependent cancers (tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.84; P-trend = 0.02) and breast cancer (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.11, 2.61; P-trend = 0.04) but not prostate cancer (P-trend = 0.3). In stratified analyses (by sex-specific median of dietary fiber intake), alcohol intake was directly associated with hormone-dependent cancer (tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: HR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.82; P-trend = 0.002), breast cancer (HR: 2.53; 95% CI: 1.30, 4.95; P-trend = 0.02), and prostate cancer (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 0.65, 2.89; P-trend = 0.02) risk among individuals with low dietary fiber intake but not among their counterparts with higher dietary fiber intake (P-trend = 0.9, 0.8, and 0.6, respectively). The P-interaction between alcohol and dietary fiber intake was statistically significant for prostate cancer (P = 0.01) but not for overall hormone-dependent (P = 0.2) or breast (P = 0.9) cancer. In line with mechanistic hypotheses and experimental data, this prospective study suggested that dietary fiber intake might modulate the association between alcohol intake and risk of hormone-dependent cancer. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00272428. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Triennial changes in groundwater quality in aquifers used for public supply in California: Utility as indicators of temporal trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kent, Robert; Landon, Matthew K.

2016-01-01

From 2004 to 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples from 1686 wells across the State of California as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board’s Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Priority Basin Project (PBP). From 2007 to 2013, 224 of these wells were resampled to assess temporal trends in water quality. The samples were analyzed for 216 water-quality constituents, including inorganic and organic compounds as well as isotopic tracers. The resampled wells were grouped into five hydrogeologic zones. A nonparametric hypothesis test was used to test the differences between initial sampling and resampling results to evaluate possible step trends in water-quality, statewide, and within each hydrogeologic zone. The hypothesis tests were performed on the 79 constituents that were detected in more than 5 % of the samples collected during either sampling period in at least one hydrogeologic zone. Step trends were detected for 17 constituents. Increasing trends were detected for alkalinity, aluminum, beryllium, boron, lithium, orthophosphate, perchlorate, sodium, and specific conductance. Decreasing trends were detected for atrazine, cobalt, dissolved oxygen, lead, nickel, pH, simazine, and tritium. Tritium was expected to decrease due to decreasing values in precipitation, and the detection of decreases indicates that the method is capable of resolving temporal trends.

Fingerprints of Sea Level Rise on Changing Tides in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Andrew C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Li, Ming; Lee, Serena Blyth; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Wei

2017-10-01

Secular tidal trends are present in many tide gauge records, but their causes are often unclear. This study examines trends in tides over the last century in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. Statistical models show negative M2 amplitude trends at the mouths of both bays, while some upstream locations have insignificant or positive trends. To determine whether sea level rise is responsible for these trends, we include a term for mean sea level in the statistical models and compare the results with predictions from numerical and analytical models. The observed and predicted sensitivities of M2 amplitude and phase to mean sea level are similar, although the numerical model amplitude is less sensitive to sea level. The sensitivity occurs as a result of strengthening and shifting of the amphidromic system in the Chesapeake Bay and decreasing frictional effects and increasing convergence in the Delaware Bay. After accounting for the effect of sea level, significant negative background M2 and S2 amplitude trends are present; these trends may be related to other factors such as dredging, tide gauge errors, or river discharge. Projected changes in tidal amplitudes due to sea level rise over the 21st century are substantial in some areas, but depend significantly on modeling assumptions.

Obesity explains gender differences in the association between education level and metabolic syndrome in South Korea: the results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010.

PubMed

Ko, Ki Dong; Cho, BeLong; Lee, Won Chul; Lee, Hae Won; Lee, Hyun Ki; Oh, Bum Jo

2015-03-01

This study aimed to examine the association of educational level with metabolic syndrome (MS) and its risk factors by gender in South Korea. A total of 6178 participants aged 20 years or older from The Fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included in this study. A generalized linear model and adjusted proportion were used to identify educational disparities in MS, its components, and its risk factors (smoking, high-risk alcohol consumption, obesity, and stress). In women, a clearly inverse association between education level and MS were observed with significant trend, and the decreasing trends of all risk factors across education quartiles were in line with the inverse association. However, the association between education level and MS was not observed with a significant trend among men. An opposite trend of risk factors across education levels was shown in men, with an increasing trend for obesity and decreasing trends for smoking and high-risk alcohol consumption. These findings demonstrate that obesity can explain gender differences in the association between education level and MS in South Korea. © 2013 APJPH.

Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

Recent Short Term Global Aerosol Trends over Land and Ocean Dominated by Biomass Burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, Lorraine A.; Koren, Ilan; Kleidman, RIchard G.; Levy, Robert C.; Martins, J. Vanderlei; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Tanre, Didier; Mattoo, Shana; Yu, Hongbin

2007-01-01

NASA's MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite is one of the premier tools to assess aerosol over land and ocean because of its high quality calibration and consistency. We analyze Terra-MODIS's seven year record of aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations to determine whether global aerosol has increased or decreased during this period. This record shows that AOD has decreased over land and increased over ocean. Only the ocean trend is statistically significant and corresponds to an increase in AOD of 0.009, or a 15% increase from background conditions. The strongest increasing trends occur over regions and seasons noted for strong biomass burning. This suggests that biomass burning aerosol dominates the increasing trend over oceans and mitigates the otherwise mostly negative trend over the continents.

Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

2018-05-01

Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

2013-01-01

The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

Type 1 diabetes mellitus and components in drinking water and diet: a population-based, case-control study in Prince Edward Island, Canada.

PubMed

Benson, Victoria S; Vanleeuwen, John A; Taylor, Jennifer; Somers, George S; McKinney, Patricia A; Van Til, Linda

2010-12-01

To determine the relationship between the risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and daily intake of drinking water and dietary components, including nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamines, during the year prior to diagnosis. Controls (n = 105) were matched by age at diagnosis and sex to T1D cases (n = 57) newly diagnosed during 2001-2004. Food consumption was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. Locally available samples of foods were tested for nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamine concentrations. Water consumption was determined through an additional questionnaire, and water samples were taken from homes and tested for routine chemical components, including nitrate. After controlling for age, age, sex, and daily energy intake, nitrate intake from food sources showed a non-significant positive trend (odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartiles = 1.00, 1.63 (0.58, 4.63), 1.71 (0.54, 5.40), 3.02 (0.78, 11.74); p for trend = 0.13). Nitrite and nitrosamine intake were not related to T1D risk (p for trend = 0.77 and 0.81, respectively). When food and water components were combined, zinc and calcium intakes were marginally and inversely related to T1D risk (p for trend = 0.07 and 0.06, respectively). After further model adjustment of possible confounders and significant risk factors, an increased intake of caffeine marginally increased the risk of T1D (p = 0.07). Dietary components from both food and water sources may influence the risk of developing T1D in young persons.

Trends in High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among General Population Groups in China: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W. N.; de Vlas, Sake J.

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Methods We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Results We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Discussion Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population. PMID:24236121

Changing Trends of Types of Skin Cancer in Iran.

PubMed

Razi, Saeid; Rafiemanesh, Hosein; Ghoncheh, Mahshid; Khani, Yousef; Salehiniya, Hamid

2015-01-01

Skin cancer is the most common type of cancer worldwide. It has an increasing trend. This study investigated the epidemiological trend and morphological changes in skin cancer in Iran. This study was done using existing data, extracted from the National Cancer Registry System and the Disease Management Center of Iranian Ministry of Health between 2003 and 2008. Data on epidemiologic trend was analyzed using Joinpoint software package. The incidence of skin cancer is increasing in Iran, and more in men than women. There was a declining trend for basal cell carcinoma. Basal squamous cell carcinoma and melanoma had an increasing trend. The increase of skin cancer was related to squamous cell carcinoma. Our findings indicated that the increase of skin cancer was attributed to squamous cell carcinoma. It is necessary to be planning for the control and prevention of this disease as a priority for health policy makers.

Attributes of Suicide in Females.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bourque, Linda B.; And Others

1983-01-01

Investigated long-term trends in suicides among females using data focusing on 837 White and Hispanic females. Female suicide rates in Sacramento County have increased gradually since 1925. Indicators tentatively describing an etiology include marital status, employment status and occupation, physical ill health, familial loss or disruption, and…

Editorial: Trends in Mental Retardation in the 1990s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rowitz, Louis

1989-01-01

Issues in mental retardation to be addressed in the next decade include homogenization of disabilities, aging of the population, increasing information and research needs, diagnosis, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, legal and ethical problems, caregiving, adolescent care, health care delivery, lifelong disabilities, vocational opportunities,…

The New WTO Telecom Agreement: Opportunities and Challenges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sisson, Peter

1997-01-01

The telecommunication agreement reached by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1997 will accelerate the global trend toward increased market access, competition, and deregulation. Examines opportunities for marketing and operations, dispute resolution and enforcement, profitability, and the exclusion of Russia and China. Includes the WTO…

The Privatization of Education in Argentina.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naradowski, Mariono; Andrada, Myrian

2001-01-01

Describes historical and current trends in Argentina's private and public primary- and secondary-school enrollment levels and policy reasons behind changes, including deregulation of private schools. Evaluates research analyzing impact of increased private-school enrollment; argues middle- and high-income students are opting out of public schools…

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2018-05-01

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2011-02-01

Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary differently with altitude in the NH and SH but add up to similar trends at mesospheric cloud heights.

Dental caries and weight among children in Nuuk, Greenland, at school entry.

PubMed

Madsen, Signe Sloth; Wetterstrand, Vicky Jenny Rebecka; Pedersen, Michael Lynge

2017-01-01

To explore the possible association between weight class and prevalence of caries among children born 2005-2007, living in Nuuk, Greenland, at time of school entry. A cross-sectional register study based on data from electronic medical records(EMR) and oral health data from public health and dental care facilities. Data from routine examinations of children at time of primary school entry, including height and weight, were obtained from the EMRs. Dental charts recording oral health and caries were collected from public dental healthcare service. The prevalence of caries was calculated as the proportion of included children with dft score (decayed and/or filled non-permanent teeth) ≥1. 55%(373/681) had relevant data recorded in EMRs and dental charts, and could be included in the study. The prevalence of dental caries was 57.1%(213/373). The prevalence of caries increased with higher weight class,but no statistically significant trend was observed(p=0.063). Increasing prevalence of caries with increasing weight class was observed in this study. A linear trend could not be confirmed statistically. The high prevalence of caries and overweight indicate the need for continued focus on preventative initiatives and monitoring. A combined strategy targeting both caries and overweight may be considered.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended on the period examined. Recent trends in Southwest precipitation are directionally consistent with anthropogenic climate change.

High-Fructose Corn Syrup: Is this what’s for dinner?

PubMed Central

Duffey, Kiyah J.; Popkin, Barry M.

2009-01-01

Background Research on trends in consumption of added sugar and high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in the U.S. has largely focused on calorically-sweetened beverages, ignoring other sources. Objective To examine U.S. consumption of added sugar and HFCS to determine long-term trends in availability and intake from beverages and foods. Design We used two estimation techniques and data from the Nationwide Food Consumption Surveys (1965 and 1977), Continuing Survey of Food Intake in Individuals (1989–1991) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1999–2000, 2001–2002 and 2003–2004) to examine trends in HFCS and added sugar, including: (a) overall trends, and (b) within certain food and beverage groups. Results Availability and consumption of HFCS and added sugar increased over time until a slight decline between 2000 and 2004. By 2004, HFCS provided roughly 8% of total energy intake compared to total added sugar of 377 kcal/person/d, accounting for 17% of total energy intake. While food and beverage trends were similar, soft drinks and fruit drinks provided the most HFCS (158 and 40 kcal/person/d in 2004, respectively). Moreover, among the top 20% of individuals, 896 kcal/person/d of added sugar was consumed compared to 505 kcal/person/d of HFCS. Among consumers, sweetened tea and desserts also represented major contributors of calories from added sugar (over 100 kcal/person/d). Conclusion While increased intake of calories from HFCS is important to examine, the health affect of overall trends in added caloric sweeteners should not be overlooked. PMID:19064537

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001–2014

PubMed Central

de Souza, Eliana Amorim; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8–1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9–4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3–6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1–4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females. PMID:29489990

Epidemiology and Trends in Incidence of Kidney Cancer in Iran.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Pournamdar, Zahra; Salehiniya, Hamid

2015-01-01

Kidney cancer has shown an increasing trend in recent decades. This study aimed to determine change in the incidence rate between 2003 and 2009 in Iran. In this study, national cancer registry data were used. Crude incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 and age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were computed using the direct standardization method and the world standard population. Significant trend of incidence rates was examined by the Cochran-Armitage test for linear trend. A total of 6,944 cases of kidney cancer were reported. The incidence cases increased from 595 patients in 2003 to 1,387 patients in 2009. Sex ratio (male to female) was 1.67. ASR also increased from 1.18 in 2003 to 2.52 in 2009 per 100,000, but the increasing trend was not significant. A slow increasing trend of incidence rate was observed in the study population. This may be due to an increase of risk factors. It is suggested to perform a study on risk factors for the cancer.

[Trends and inequalities in risk behaviors among adolescents: a comparison of birth cohorts in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil].

PubMed

Arroyave, Leidy Johanna Ocampo; Restrepo-Méndez, María Clara; Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Menezes, Ana Maria Baptista; Gigante, Denise Petrucci; Gonçalves, Helen

2016-10-10

This study focuses on trends and inequalities in health risk behaviors among adolescents. A cross-sectional study compared two birth cohorts in the city of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The sample included 1,281 adolescents from the 1982 cohort and 4,106 from the 1993 cohort, followed in 2001 and 2011, respectively. The study recorded alcohol intake, illegal drug use, smoking, sexual initiation < 16 years, lack of condom use, and multiple sex partners. Total prevalence rates were calculated for each cohort, stratified by gender and per capita income, besides absolute and relative measures of inequality. There was a decrease from 2001 to 2011 in prevalence rates for trying alcohol, illegal drug use, smoking, and lack of condom use, and an increase in the number of sex partners. The gap between boys and girls increased for non-use of condoms and decreased for the other behaviors. The gap between income groups decreased for sexual initiation before 16 years of age and increased for episodes of intoxication. Socioeconomic inequalities persist, despite the downward trend in prevalence of risk behaviors.

Improving Trends in Gender Disparities in the Department of Veterans Affairs: 2008–2013

PubMed Central

Czarnogorski, Maggie; Wright, Steve M.; Hayes, Patricia M.; Haskell, Sally G.

2014-01-01

Increasing numbers of women veterans using Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) services has contributed to the need for equitable, high-quality care for women. The VA has evaluated performance measure data by gender since 2006. In 2008, the VA launched a 5-year women’s health redesign, and, in 2011, gender disparity improvement was included on leadership performance plans. We examined data from VA Office of Analytics and Business Intelligence quarterly gender reports for trends in gender disparities in gender-neutral performance measures from 2008 to 2013. Through reporting of data by gender, leadership involvement, electronic reminders, and population management dashboards, VA has seen a decreasing trend in gender inequities on most Health Effectiveness Data and Information Set performance measures. PMID:25100416

Trends in the presentation of cutaneous malignant melanoma over three decades at King's College Hospital, London.

PubMed

Harman, K E; Fuller, L C; Salisbury, J R; Higgins, E M; du Vivier, A W P

2004-09-01

The aim of this study was to examine trends in the presentation of cutaneous malignant melanoma at King's College Hospital (KCH) over the last three decades (1970-2000). KCH was one of seven centres that participated in the 1987 Cancer Research Campaign (CRC) publicity campaign aimed at promoting earlier self-recognition of melanoma. Data included patient age at presentation, sex, tumour site, Breslow thickness and histological subtype. The late 1980s saw a threefold increase in the annual number of melanomas and an eightfold increase in thin melanomas compared to the 1970s. The increase occurred in both sexes and was particularly marked after the CRC campaign but numbers had already begun to increase prior to this. The increase has predominantly been thin (Breslow < 1.5 mm) tumours of the superficial spreading variety with a resultant fall in mean Breslow thickness. There has been a decline in the annual number of melanomas since the peak in 1992 which is not explained by increased proportion of in situ tumours. The CRC campaign may have contributed to the documented increase in thin tumours but this trend had begun prior to 1987 suggesting factors other than public awareness and earlier presentation are important. It is encouraging that the number of melanomas has declined over the last 5 years at KCH but it is yet to be seen whether this reflects a real decrease in the incidence of melanoma.

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

PubMed Central

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-01-01

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

Mental health and substance use disorder spending in the Department of Veterans Affairs, fiscal years 2000-2007.

PubMed

Wagner, Todd H; Sinnott, Patricia; Siroka, Andrew M

2011-04-01

This study analyzed spending for treatment of mental health and substance use disorders in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) in fiscal years (FYs) 2000 through 2007. VA spending as reported in the VA Decision Support System was linked to patient utilization data as reported in the Patient Treatment Files, the National Patient Care Database, and the VA Fee Basis files. All care and costs from FY 2000 to FY 2007 were analyzed. Over the study period the number of veterans treated at the VA increased from 3.7 million to over 5.1 million (an average increase of 4.9% per year), and costs increased .7% per person per year. For mental health and substance use disorder treatment, the volume of inpatient care decreased markedly, residential care increased, and spending decreased on average 2% per year (from $668 in FY 2000 to $578 per person in FY 2007). FY 2007 saw large increases in mental health spending, bucking the trend from FY 2000 through FY 2006. VA's continued emphasis on outpatient and residential care was evident through 2007. This trend in spending might be unimpressive if VA were enrolling healthier Veterans, but the opposite seems to be true: over this time period the prevalence of most chronic conditions, including depression and posttraumatic stress disorder, increased. VA spending on mental health care grew rapidly in 2007, and given current military activities, this trend is likely to increase.

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

PubMed

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Average sperm count remains unchanged despite reduction in maternal smoking: results from a large cross-sectional study with annual investigations over 21 years.

PubMed

Priskorn, L; Nordkap, L; Bang, A K; Krause, M; Holmboe, S A; Egeberg Palme, D L; Winge, S B; Mørup, N; Carlsen, E; Joensen, U N; Blomberg Jensen, M; Main, K M; Juul, A; Skakkebaek, N E; Jensen, T K; Jørgensen, N

2018-06-01

How are temporal trends in lifestyle factors, including exposure to maternal smoking in utero, associated to semen quality in young men from the general population? Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed during the study period despite a decrease in this exposure. Meta-analyses suggest a continuous decline in semen quality but few studies have investigated temporal trends in unselected populations recruited and analysed with the same protocol over a long period and none have studied simultaneous trends in lifestyle factors. Cross-sectional population-based study including ~300 participants per year (total number = 6386) between 1996 and 2016. The study is based on men from the Greater Copenhagen area, Denmark, with a median age of 19 years, and unselected with regard to fertility status and semen quality. The men delivered a semen sample, had a blood sample drawn and a physical examination performed and answered a comprehensive questionnaire, including information on lifestyle and the mother's pregnancy. Temporal trends in semen quality and lifestyle were illustrated graphically, and trends in semen parameters and the impact of prenatal and current lifestyle factors were explored in multiple regression analyses. Throughout the study period, 35% of the men had low semen quality. Overall, there were no persistent temporal trends in semen quality, testicular volume or levels of follicle-stimulating hormone over the 21 years studied. The men's alcohol intake was lowest between 2011 and 2016, whereas BMI, use of medication and smoking showed no clear temporal trends. Parental age increased, and exposure in utero to maternal smoking declined from 40% among men investigated in 1996-2000 to 18% among men investigated in 2011-2016. Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed despite the decrease in this exposure. Information of current and prenatal lifestyle was obtained by self-report, and the men delivered only one semen sample each. The significant decline in in utero exposure to maternal smoking, which was not reflected in an overall improvement of semen quality at the population level, suggest that other unknown adverse factors may maintain the low semen quality among Danish men. The study has received financial support from the ReproUnion; the Research fund of Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital; the European Union (Contract numbers BMH4-CT96-0314,QLK4-CT-1999-01422, QLK4-CT-2002-00603, FP7/2007-2013, DEER Grant agreement no. 212844); the Danish Ministry of Health; the Danish Environmental Protection Agency; A.P. Møller and wife Chastine McKinney Møllers foundation; and Svend Andersens Foundation. None of the funders had any role in the study design, collection, analysis or interpretation of data, writing of the paper or publication decisions. N/A.

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

PubMed

Day, L H

1995-09-01

The conclusion of this analysis of fertility trends in industrialized countries is that future trends will be evident from accurate data and the inclusion of causal factors such as religion, ethnicity, migration status, marital status, employment status, neighborhood residence, or housing type. Period fertility measures are considered to be unreliable but useful as indicators of potential future changes in fertility. The expectation is that developed countries with low birth rates will have greater fluctuations than trends. Current patterns of fertility in developed countries are thought to have occurred due to substantial control over both the number and the timing of fertility. Patterns in the recent past have reflected further decline, an end to decline and a continued increase, or fluctuation. The most widespread pattern is continued increase following a period of low fertility. This pattern is in evidence in almost every country of northern and western Europe, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand. Countries with continued declines include Japan and eastern and southern European countries, which were the last to experience declines to replacement levels. Countries with fluctuating patterns include Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. Countries with greater fluctuations include Belgium, Iceland, the former West Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. The argument is made to not count these patterns as fluctuations due to 1) the similarity in magnitude, timing, and direction; 2) the small changes after the low was reached; and 3) their appearance everywhere at the same time. Stability of rates in the future appears to be a reasonable prospect due to the greater openness about human sexuality and the wider roles for women. Changes have occurred in attitudes about family size in the direction of smaller families, and the range in family size has narrowed considerably. Potential increases may occur due to a new emphasis on family and parenthood, the diminished impact of divorce on childbearing, and greater emotional value placed on children, potential dissatisfaction among women in the work force, and loss of interest in acquisition of consumer items and satiety of human wants.

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

DOE PAGES

Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate; ...

2016-04-20

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Five-year trends in women veterans' use of VA maternity benefits, 2008-2012.

PubMed

Mattocks, Kristin M; Frayne, Susan; Phibbs, Ciaran S; Yano, Elizabeth M; Zephyrin, Laurie; Shryock, Holly; Haskell, Sally; Katon, Jodie; Sullivan, J Cherry; Weinreb, Linda; Ulbricht, Christine; Bastian, Lori A

2014-01-01

An increasing number of young women veterans are returning from war and military service and are seeking reproductive health care from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Many of these women seek maternity benefits from the VHA, and yet little is known regarding the number of women veterans utilizing VHA maternity benefits nor the characteristics of pregnant veterans using these benefits. In May 2010, VHA maternity benefits were expanded to include 7 days of infant care, which may serve to entice more women to use VHA maternity benefits. Understanding the changing trends in women veterans seeking maternity benefits will help the VHA to improve the quality of reproductive care over time. The goal of this study was to examine the trends in delivery claims among women veterans receiving VHA maternity benefits over a 5-year period and the characteristics of pregnant veterans utilizing VHA benefits. We undertook a retrospective, national cohort study of pregnant veterans enrolled in VHA care with inpatient deliveries between fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2012. We included pregnant veterans using VHA maternity benefits for delivery. Measures included annualized numbers and rates of inpatient deliveries and delivery-related costs, as well as cesarean section rates as a quality indicator. During the 5-year study period, there was a significant increase in the number of deliveries to women veterans using VHA maternity benefits. The overall delivery rate increased by 44% over the study period from 12.4 to 17.8 deliveries per 1,000 women veterans. A majority of women using VHA maternity benefits were age 30 or older and had a service-connected disability. From FY 2008 to 2012, the VHA paid more than $46 million in delivery claims to community providers for deliveries to women veterans ($4,993/veteran). Over a 5-year period, the volume of women veterans using VHA maternity benefits increased by 44%. Given this sizeable increase, the VHA must increase its capacity to care for pregnant veterans and ensure care coordination systems are in place to address the needs of pregnant veterans with service-connected disabilities. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Water-Quality Trends in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, 1974-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harned, D. A.

2003-12-01

Data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sites in the Neuse River basin were reviewed for trends in major ions, sediment, nutrients, and pesticides during the period 1974-2003. In 1997, the North Carolina Division of Water Quality implemented management rules to reduce nitrogen loading to the Neuse River by 30 percent by 2003. Therefore, the 1997-2003 period was reviewed for trends associated with the management changes. The Neuse River at Kinston basin (2,695 square miles) includes much of Raleigh, N.C., with 8-percent urban and 30-percent agricultural land use (1992 data). The Contentnea Creek basin (734 square miles), a Neuse River tributary, is 42-percent agricultural and 3-percent urban. Agricultural land uses in the Contentnea Creek basin have changed over the last decade from predominantly corn, soybean, and tobacco row crops to corn, soybeans, and cotton, with reduced tobacco acreages, and development of the hog industry. Data for this analysis were collected by the USGS for the National Stream Quality Accounting Network and National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Data were examined for trends using the Seasonal Kendall trend test or Tobit regression. The Seasonal Kendall test, which accounts for seasonal variability and adjusts for effects of streamflow on concentration with residuals from LOWESS (LOcally Weighted Sum of Squares) curves, was used to analyze trends in major ions, nutrients, and sediment. The Tobit test, appropriate for examining values with reporting limits, was used for the pesticide analysis. Monotonic trends are considered significant at the alpha < 0.05 probability level. Long-term (1974-2003) decreasing trends in the Neuse River at Kinston were detected for dissolved oxygen, silica, and sediment concentrations; increasing trends were detected for potassium, alkalinity, and chloride. Decreasing trends in Contentnea Creek were detected for silica, sulfate, and sediment concentrations during 1979-2003; increasing trends were detected for pH, hardness, and alkalinity. A pattern of increase until 1990 followed by little change or decline was observed for specific conductance, dissolved solids, hardness, and sulfate in the Neuse River and for potassium in Contentnea Creek. No significant recent (1997-2003) trends were detected for dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, hardness, dissolved solids, or major ions. The Neuse River data indicated a recent declining trend in sediment concentration. Nitrogen concentrations in the form of ammonia, total ammonia and organic nitrogen, and nitrite plus nitrate have declined in both the Neuse River and Contentnea Creek. Total nitrogen concentrations increased in the Neuse River until about 1990 and then declined, primarily because of declines in nitrate. Recent declines are evident in nitrite plus nitrate in the Neuse River and in ammonia concentrations in Contentnea Creek. The data also show a reduction in variation of extreme values after 1990 in Contentnea Creek. Both observations suggest that the 1997 Neuse River management rules have had a detectable effect on nitrogen concentrations. Concentrations of dissolved and total phosphorus and orthophosphate reduced in a step trend in 1988 at both locations. This reflects the 1988 phosphate detergent ban in North Carolina. Orthophosphate concentrations have continued a recent decline in Contentnea Creek. Contentnea Creek has sufficient period of record (1994-2003) of concentrations of atrazine, deethyl atrazine, alachlor, carbaryl, diazinon, and prometon to test for trends. Both alachlor and prometon concentrations showed significant declines. Recent changes in agricultural practices coupled with a 5-year drought probably have affected pesticide use and transport to surface waters.

Bibliometric Analysis of Gender Authorship Trends and Collaboration Dynamics Over 30 Years of Spine 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Brinker, Alexander R; Liao, Jane L; Kraus, Kent R; Young, Jocelyn; Sandelski, Morgan; Mikesell, Carter; Robinson, Daniel; Adjei, Michael; Lunsford, Shatoria D; Fischer, James; Kacena, Melissa A; Whipple, Elizabeth C; Loder, Randall T

2018-07-15

A bibliometric analysis. The aim of this article was to study bibliometric changes over the last 30 years of Spine. These trends are important regarding academic publication productivity. Inflation in authorship number and other bibliometric variables has been described in the scientific literature. The issue of author gender is taking on increasing importance, as efforts are being made to close the gender gap. From 1985 to 2015, 10-year incremental data for several bibliometric variables were collected, including author gender. Standard bivariate statistical analyses were performed. Trends over time were assessed by the Cochran linear trend. A P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Inclusion criteria were met for 1566 manuscripts. The majority of the manuscripts were from North America (51.2%), Europe (25.2%), and Asia (20.8%). The number of manuscripts, authors, countries, pages, and references all increased from 1985 to 2015. There was a slight increase in female first authors over time (17.5% to 18.4%, P = 0.048). There was no gender change over time for corresponding authors (14.3% to 14.0%, P = 0.29). There was an 88% increase in the percentage of female first authors having male corresponding authors (P = 0.00004), and a 123% increase in male first authors having female corresponding authors (P = 0.0002). The 14% to 18% of female authors in Spine is higher than the ∼5% female membership of the Scoliosis Research Society and North American Spine Society. Manuscripts in Spine over the past 30 years have shown a significant increase in the number of authors, collaborating institutions and countries, printed pages, references, and number of times each manuscript was cited. There has been a mild increase in female first authorship, but none in corresponding authorship. Increases in female authorship will likely require recruitment of more females into the discipline rather than providing females in the discipline with authorship opportunities. N/A.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

In Utero DDT and DDE Exposure and Obesity Status of 7-Year-Old Mexican-American Children in the CHAMACOS Cohort

PubMed Central

Schall, Raul Aguilar; Harley, Kim G.; Bradman, Asa; Barr, Dana; Eskenazi, Brenda

2013-01-01

Background: In utero exposure to endocrine disrupting compounds including dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) has been hypothesized to increase risk of obesity later in life. Objectives: The Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas (CHAMACOS) study is a longitudinal birth cohort of low-income Latinas living in a California agricultural community. We examined the relation of in utero DDT and DDE exposure to child obesity at 7 years of age. We also examined the trend with age (2, 3.5, 5, and 7 years) in the exposure–obesity relation. Methods: We included 270 children with o,p´-DDT, p,p´-DDT, and p,p´-DDE concentrations measured in maternal serum during pregnancy (nanograms per gram lipid) and complete 7-year follow-up data including weight (kilograms) and height (centimeters). Body mass index (BMI; kilograms per meter squared) was calculated and obesity was defined as ≥ 95th percentile on the sex-specific BMI-for-age Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2000 growth charts. Results: At 7 years, 96 (35.6%) children were obese. A 10-fold increase in o,p´-DDT, p,p´-DDT, or p,p´-DDE, was nonsignificantly associated with increased odds (OR) of obesity [o,p´-DDT adjusted (adj-) OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.82; p,p´-DDT adj-OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 0.81, 1.74; p,p´-DDE adj-OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 0.72, 2.06]. With increasing age at follow-up, we observed a significant trend toward a positive association between DDT and DDE exposure and odds of obesity. Conclusion: We did not find a significant positive relation between in utero DDT and DDE exposure and obesity status of 7-year-old children. However, given the observed trend with age, continued follow-up will be informative. PMID:23512307

Trends in Receipt of Sexually Transmitted Disease Services Among Women 15 to 44 Years Old in the United States, 2002 to 2006–2010

PubMed Central

Haderxhanaj, Laura T.; Gift, Thomas L.; Loosier, Penny S.; Cramer, Ryan C.; Leichliter, Jami S.

2018-01-01

Background To describe recent trends in the receipt of sexually transmitted disease (STD) services among women (age, 15–44 years) from 2002 to 2006–2010 using the National Survey of Family Growth. Methods We analyzed trends in demographics, health insurance, and visit-related variables of women reporting receipt of STD services (counseling, testing, or treatment) in the past 12 months. We also analyzed trends in the source of STD services and the payment method used. Results Receipt of STD services reported by women in the past 12 months increased from 2002 (12.6%) to 2006–2010 (16.0%; P < 0.001). Receipt of services did not increase among adolescents (P = 0.592). Among women receiving STD services from a private doctor/HMO, the percentage with private insurance decreased over time (74.6%–66.8%), whereas the percentage with Medicaid increased (12.8%–19.7%; P = 0.020). For women receiving STD services at a public clinic or nonprimary care facility, there were no statistically significant differences by demographics, except that fewer adolescents but more young adults reported using a public clinic over time (P = 0.038). Among women who reported using Medicaid as payment, receipt of STD services at a public clinic significantly decreased (36.8%–25.4%; P = 0.019). For women who paid for STD services with private insurance, the only significant difference was an increase in having a copay over time (61.3%–70.1%; P = 0.012). Conclusions Despite a significant increase in receipt of STD services over time, many women at risk for STDs did not receive services including adolescents. In addition, we identified important shifts in payment methods during this time frame. PMID:24335746

Trends in U.S., Past-Year Marijuana Use from 1985–2009; An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Miech, Richard; Koester, Stephen

2014-01-01

Background We present a formal age-period-cohort analysis to examine if the recent increase in past-year marijuana use among the young is specific to the younger generation or if, instead, it is part of a general increase present across cohorts of all ages. This is the first age-period-cohort analysis of past-year marijuana use that includes adult trends from 2001–09. Methods Data come from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a series of annual, nationally-representative, cross-sectional surveys of the U.S. civilian, non-institutionalized population. The analysis focuses on the 25 year time span from 1985–2009 and uses the recently developed ‘intrinsic estimator’ algorithm to estimate independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Results The recent increase in past-year marijuana use is not unique to the youngest birth cohorts. An independent, positive influence of cohort membership on past-year marijuana use, net of historical period and age effects, is smaller for today’s youngest cohorts than it was for the cohorts that came immediately before, and, in fact, is at its lowest level in three decades. The recent increase in marijuana use among the young is more consistent with a historical period effect that has acted across all cohorts. Period and cohort trends differ substantially for Hispanics. Conclusions The major forces that drive trends in past-year marijuana use are moving away from cohort-specific factors and toward broad-based influences that affect cohorts of all ages. Strategic public health and policy efforts aimed at countering the recent increase in past-year marijuana use should do the same. PMID:22361212

Relations of thyroid function to body weight: cross-sectional and longitudinal observations in a community-based sample.

PubMed

Fox, Caroline S; Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Murabito, Joanne M; Seely, Ellen W; Pearce, Elizabeth N; Vasan, Ramachandran S

2008-03-24

Overt hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism may be associated with weight gain and loss. We assessed whether variations in thyroid function within the reference (physiologic) range are associated with body weight. Framingham Offspring Study participants (n=2407) who attended 2 consecutive routine examinations, were not receiving thyroid hormone therapy, and had baseline serum thyrotropin (TSH) concentrations of 0.5 to 5.0 mIU/L and follow-up concentrations of 0.5 to 10.0 mIU/L were included in this study. Baseline TSH concentrations were related to body weight and body weight change during 3.5 years of follow-up. At baseline, adjusted mean weight increased progressively from 64.5 to 70.2 kg in the lowest to highest TSH concentration quartiles in women (P< .001 for trend), and from 82.8 (lowest quartile) to 85.6 kg (highest quartile) in men (P= .007 for trend). During 3.5 years of follow-up, mean (SD) body weight increased by 1.5 (5.6) kg in women and 1.0 (5.0) kg in men. Baseline TSH concentrations were not associated with weight change during follow-up. However, an increase in TSH concentration at follow-up was positively associated with weight gain in women (0.5-2.3 kg across increasing quartiles of TSH concentration change; P< .001 for trend) and men (0.4-1.3 kg across quartiles of TSH concentration change; P= .007 for trend). Thyroid function (as assessed by serum TSH concentration) within the reference range is associated with body weight in both sexes. Our findings raise the possibility that modest increases in serum TSH concentrations within the reference range may be associated with weight gain.

Comparison of oropharyngeal and oral cavity squamous cell cancer incidence and trends in New Zealand and Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Elwood, J Mark; Youlden, Danny R; Chelimo, Carol; Ioannides, Sally J; Baade, Peter D

2014-02-01

Increases in the incidence of squamous cell oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) have been reported from some countries, but have not been assessed in Australia or New Zealand. This study examines trends for squamous cell OPC and squamous cell oral cavity cancer (OCC) in two similarly sized populations, New Zealand and Queensland, Australia. Incidence data for 1982-2010 were obtained from the respective population-based cancer registries for squamous cell OPC and OCC, by subsite, sex, and age. Time trends and annual percentage changes (APCs) were assessed by joinpoint regression. The incidence rates of squamous cell OPC in males in New Zealand since 2005 and Queensland since 2006 have increased rapidly, with APCs of 11.9% and 10.6% respectively. The trends were greatest at ages 50-69 and followed more gradual increases previously. In females, rates increased by 2.1% per year in New Zealand from 1982, but by only 0.9% (not significant) in Queensland. In contrast, incidence rates for OCC decreased by 1.2% per year in males in Queensland since 1982, but remained stable for females in Queensland and for both sexes in New Zealand. Overall, incidence rates for both OCC and OPC were substantially higher in Queensland than in New Zealand. In males in both areas, OPC incidence is now higher than that of OCC. Incidence rates of squamous cell OPC have increased rapidly in men, while rates of OCC have been stable or reducing, showing distinct etiologies. This has both clinical and public health importance, including implications for the extension of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination to males. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Long-Term Macroecological Analysis of the Recovery of a Waterbird Metacommunity after Site Protection

PubMed Central

Pagel, Janina; Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Gómez, Juan Antonio; Jiménez, Juan; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

We used the so called “land-bridge island” or “nested-subsets” theory to test the resilience of a highly fragmented and perturbated waterbird metacommunity, after legal protection of 18 wetlands in the western Mediterranean. Sites were monitored during 28 years and two seasons per year. The metacommunity was composed by 44 species during breeding and 67 species during wintering, including shorebirds, ducks, herons, gulls and divers (Podicipedidae). We identified a strong nested pattern. Consistent with the fact that the study system was to a large extent a spatial biogeographical continuous for thousands of years, fragmented only during the last centuries due to human activities. Non-random selective extinction was the most likely historical process creating the nested pattern, operated by the differential carrying capacity (surface-area) of the remaining sites. We also found a positive temporal trend in nestedness and a decreasing trend in species turnover among sites (β-diversity), indicating that sites are increasingly more alike to each other (i.e. increased biotic homogenization). This decreasing trend in β-diversity was explained by an increasing trend in local (α) diversity by range expansion of half the study species. Regional (γ) diversity also increased over time, indicating that colonization from outside the study system also occurred. Overall our results suggest that the study metacommunity is recovering from historical anthropogenic perturbations, showing a high long-term resilience, as expected for highly vagile waterbirds. However, not all waterbird groups contributed equally to the recovery, with most breeding shorebird species and most wintering duck species showing no geographical expansion. PMID:25133798

Contribution of changing risk factors to the trend in breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Bin, Yu Sun; Roberts, Christine L; Nicholl, Michael C; Nassar, Natasha; Ford, Jane B

2016-12-01

Recent population-wide changes in perinatal risk factors may affect rates of breech presentation at birth, and have implications for the provision of breech services and training in breech management. To investigate whether changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics explain the observed trend in breech presentation at term. All singleton term (≥37 week) births in New South Wales during 2002-2012 were identified through birth and associated hospital records. Annual rates of breech presentation were determined. Logistic regression modelling was used to predict expected rates of breech presentation and these were compared with observed rates over time. A priori predictors included maternal age, country of birth, parity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, placenta praevia, previous singleton term breech, previous caesarean section, infant sex, gestational age, birthweight and congenital anomalies. Hospital and Medicare data were used to assess concomitant trends in external cephalic version. Among 914 147 singleton term births, 3.1% were breech at delivery. Rates of breech presentation declined from 3.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2012 (test for trend P < 0.001), but was predicted to increase from 3.6% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2012 because of increased maternal age, nulliparity, maternal diabetes, history of breech presentation and previous caesarean section. However, use of external cephalic version appears to have increased over time. Breech presentation at delivery has decreased in New South Wales. Increased use of external cephalic version likely accounts for this decline, as changes in risk factors do not. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Shifts of Start and End of Season in Response to Air Temperature Variation Based on Gimms Dataset in Hyrcanian Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiapasha, K. H.; Darvishsefat, A. A.; Zargham, N.; Julien, Y.; Sobrino, J. A.; Nadi, M.

2017-09-01

Climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges in the world and forest as a dynamic phenomenon is influenced by environmental changes. The Hyrcanian forests is a unique natural heritage of global importance and we need monitoring this region. The objective of this study was to detect start and end of season trends in Hyrcanian forests of Iran based on biweekly GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI3g in the period 1981-2012. In order to find response of vegetation activity to local temperature variations, we used air temperature provided from I.R. Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). At the first step in order to remove the existing gap from the original time series, the iterative Interpolation for Data Reconstruction (IDR) model was applied to GIMMS and temperature dataset. Then we applied significant Mann Kendall test to determine significant trend for each pixel of GIMMS and temperature datasets over the Hyrcanian forests. The results demonstrated that start and end of season (SOS & EOS respectively) derived from GIMMS3g NDVI time series increased by -0.16 and +0.41 days per year respectively. The trends derived from temperature time series indicated increasing trend in the whole of this region. Results of this study showed that global warming and its effect on growth and photosynthetic activity can increased the vegetation activity in our study area. Otherwise extension of the growing season, including an earlier start of the growing season, later autumn and higher rate of production increased NDVI value during the study period.

Stroke survivors in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis of prevalence and secular trends.

PubMed

Ezejimofor, Martinsixtus C; Chen, Yen-Fu; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Ezejimofor, Benedeth C; Ezeabasili, Aloysius C; Stranges, Saverio; Uthman, Olalekan A

2016-05-15

To provide an up-to-date estimate on the changing prevalence of stroke survivors, and examines the geographic and socioeconomic variations in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Science databases and systematically reviewed articles reporting stroke prevalence and risk factors from inception to July 2015. Pooled prevalence estimates and secular trends based on random-effects models were conducted across LMICs, World Bank regions and income groups. Overall, 101 eligible community-based studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled crude prevalence of stroke survivors was highest in Latin America and Caribbean (21.2 per 1000, 95% CI 13.7 to 30.29) but lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (3.5 per 1000, 95% CI 1.9 to 5.7). Steepest increase in stroke prevalence occurred in low-income countries, increasing by 14.3% annually while the lowest increase occurred in lower-middle income countries (6% annually), and for every 10years increase in participants' mean age, the prevalence of stroke survivors increases by 62% (95% CI 6% to 147%). The prevalence estimates of stroke survivors are significantly different across LMICs in both magnitude and secular trend. Improved stroke surveillance and care, as well as better management of the underlying risk factors, primarily undetected or uncontrolled high blood pressure (HBP) are needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid Global Expansion of Invertebrate Fisheries: Trends, Drivers, and Ecosystem Effects

PubMed Central

Anderson, Sean C.; Mills Flemming, Joanna; Watson, Reg; Lotze, Heike K.

2011-01-01

Background Worldwide, finfish fisheries are receiving increasing assessment and regulation, slowly leading to more sustainable exploitation and rebuilding. In their wake, invertebrate fisheries are rapidly expanding with little scientific scrutiny despite increasing socio-economic importance. Methods and Findings We provide the first global evaluation of the trends, drivers, and population and ecosystem consequences of invertebrate fisheries based on a global catch database in combination with taxa-specific reviews. We also develop new methodologies to quantify temporal and spatial trends in resource status and fishery development. Since 1950, global invertebrate catches have increased 6-fold with 1.5 times more countries fishing and double the taxa reported. By 2004, 34% of invertebrate fisheries were over-exploited, collapsed, or closed. New fisheries have developed increasingly rapidly, with a decrease of 6 years (3 years) in time to peak from the 1950s to 1990s. Moreover, some fisheries have expanded further and further away from their driving market, encompassing a global fishery by the 1990s. 71% of taxa (53% of catches) are harvested with habitat-destructive gear, and many provide important ecosystem functions including habitat, filtration, and grazing. Conclusions Our findings suggest that invertebrate species, which form an important component of the basis of marine food webs, are increasingly exploited with limited stock and ecosystem-impact assessments, and enhanced management attention is needed to avoid negative consequences for ocean ecosystems and human well-being. PMID:21408090

Thyroid cancer incidence in New Jersey: time trend, birth cohort and socioeconomic status analysis (1979-2006).

PubMed

Roche, Lisa M; Niu, Xiaoling; Pawlish, Karen S; Henry, Kevin A

2011-01-01

The study's purpose was to investigate thyroid cancer incidence time trends, birth cohort effects, and association with socioeconomic status (SES) in New Jersey (NJ), a high incidence state, using NJ State Cancer Registry data. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in each sex, nearly all age groups, two major histologies and all stages significantly increased between 1979 and 2006. For each sex, age-specific incidence rates began greatly increasing in the 1924 birth cohort and, generally, the highest thyroid cancer incidence rate for each five-year age group occurred in the latest birth cohort and diagnosis period. Thyroid cancer incidence rates were significantly higher in NJ Census tracts with higher SES and in counties with a higher percentage of insured residents. These results support further investigation into the relationship between rising thyroid cancer incidence and increasing population exposure to medical (including diagnostic) radiation, as well as widespread use of more sensitive diagnostic techniques.

Recent trends in the development and evaluation of assistive robotic manipulation devices.

PubMed

Allin, Sonya; Eckel, Emily; Markham, Heather; Brewer, Bambi R

2010-02-01

This review explores recent trends in the development and evaluation of assistive robotic arms, both prosthetic and externally mounted. Evaluations have been organized according to the CATOR taxonomy of assistive device outcomes, which takes into consideration device effectiveness, social significance, and impact on subjective well-being. Questions that have informed the review include: (1) Are robotic arms being comprehensively evaluated along axes of the CATOR taxonomy? (2) Are definitions of effectiveness in accordance with the priorities of users? (3) What gaps in robotic arm evaluation exist, and how might these best be addressed? (4) What further advances can be expected in the next 15 years? Results highlight the need for increased standardization of evaluation methods, increased emphasis on the social significance (i.e., social cost) of devices, and increased emphasis on device impact on quality of life. Several open areas for future research, in terms of both device evaluation and device development, are also discussed.

Recent trends in the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel diseases: Up or down?

PubMed Central

Lakatos, Peter Laszlo

2006-01-01

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is traditionally considered to be common in the Western world, and its incidence has sharply increased since the early 1950s. In contrast, until the last decade, low prevalence and incidence rates have been reported from other parts of the world including Eastern Europe, South America, Asia and the Pacific region. Recent trends indicate a change in the epidemiology of IBD with previously low incidence areas now reporting a progressive rise in the incidence, while in West European and North American countries the figures have stabilized or slightly increased, with decreasing incidence rates for ulcerative colitis. Some of these changes may represent differences in diagnostic practices and increasing awareness of the disease. The quality of studies is also variable. Additional epidemiologic studies are needed to better define the burden of illness, explore the mechanism of association with environmental factors, and identify new risk factors. PMID:17036379

Women in medicine: historical perspectives and recent trends.

PubMed

Jefferson, Laura; Bloor, Karen; Maynard, Alan

2015-06-01

Women now outnumber men in British medical schools. This paper charts the history of women in medicine and provides current demographic trends. A historical literature review and routinely collected data from Department of Health and the Health and Social Care Information Centre. Clear gender differences are apparent in working practices, including greater likelihood of working part time and specializing in certain areas of medicine. The increasing need to increase activity among the existing medical workforce is timely amidst a changing workforce demographic. Workforce planners, policymakers and Royal Colleges should continue to develop interventions that may reduce disparities in career choices, as well as considering ways to increase participation and activity. Further research is needed to explore the cost-effectiveness of existing and future interventions in this field. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection.

PubMed

Jones, Anna K; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Trevor R; Wigley, Paul; O'Brien, Sarah J; Cross, Paul

2016-07-01

In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs' ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public's preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%-52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%-98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections.

Trends in dietary carbohydrate consumption from 1991 to 2008 in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort

PubMed Central

Makarem, Nour; Scott, Marc; Quatromoni, Paula; Jacques, Paul; Parekh, Niyati

2014-01-01

The intake of carbohydrates has been evaluated cross-sectionally, but not longitudinally in an ageing American adult population. The aim of the present study was to examine trends in the intake of dietary carbohydrates and their major food sources among the Framingham Heart Study Offspring (FOS) cohort, which had been uniquely tracked for 17 years in the study. The FOS cohort was recruited in 1971–1975. Follow-up examinations were conducted, on average, every 4 years. Dietary data collection began in 1991 (examination 5) using a validated semi-quantitative FFQ. The study included 2894 adults aged ≥25 years with complete dietary data in at least three examinations from 1991 to 2008. Descriptive statistics were generated using SAS version 9.3, and a repeated-measures model was used to examine trends in the intake of carbohydrates and their food sources in the whole sample, and by sex and BMI category. Over 17 years of follow-up, the percentage of energy from total carbohydrates (51·0–46·8 %; P for trend<0·001) and total sugars (18·2–16·6 %; P for trend<0·001) decreased. There was a decrease in the percentage of energy from fructose (5·4–4·7 %; P for trend<0·001) and sucrose (9·8–8·8 %; P for trend<0·001). Dietary fibre intake increased (18·0–19·2 g/d; P for trend<0·001). The number of weekly servings of yeast bread, soft drinks/soda, cakes/cookies/quick breads/doughnuts, potatoes, milk, pasta, rice and cooked grains, fruit juice/drinks, potato chips/maize chips/popcorn, and lunch foods (e.g. pizzas and burgers) decreased significantly (P for trend<0·001), while the intake of ready-to-eat cereals, legumes, fruits, dairy products, candy and ice cream/sherbet/frozen yogurt increased significantly (P for trend<0·04). Similar trends were observed when the analyses were stratified by sex and BMI. The present results suggest favourable trends in dietary carbohydrate consumption, but dietary guidelines for fruits, vegetables and fibre were not met in this cohort. PMID:24661608

College and University Privacy Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Showalter, Rodney J.

2009-01-01

Beginning in the late 1990s, international corporations began hiring Chief Privacy Officers (CPOs). By 2002, large universities responded to this trend by creating this distinct position or modifying an existing job description to include CPO responsibilities. While not every registrar assumes the role of CPO, increasing practical and legislative…

Continuity and Change in Appalachia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shinn, Larry D.

1999-01-01

Appalachian continuities include attachment to land and religion, high teen pregnancy, and low literacy and income. Trends in Appalachia that institutions of higher education must address are higher rates of college attendance, migration to urban areas, changes in student learning styles, and increasing pressure to educate students to workplace…

A City Manager Looks at Trends Affecting Public Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemp, Roger L.

1999-01-01

Highlights some important conditions, both present and future, which will have an impact on public libraries. Discusses holding down expenses, including user fees, alternative funding sources, and private cosponsorship of programs; increasing productivity; use of computers and new technologies; staff development and internal marketing; improving…

The Full-Service Community College: An Essay.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shepherd, John

Major socioeconomic trends, including the growth of service industries, increased urbanization, and the enhanced importance of leisure time, have brought about the evolution of what might be called the full-service community college. This institution, which culminates the development of the American community college toward its community-based…

Governing University Strategy: Perceptions and Practice of Governance and Management Roles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rytmeister, Catherine

2009-01-01

Intertwined trends of massification, internationalisation and marketisation constitute and drive change in higher education at all levels. Consequences at the institutional level include: increased competition, adoption of corporate management forms, accrual of power to executive management, and greater emphasis on strategy. As Government policy…

Active Learning in the Digital Age Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heide, Ann; Henderson, Dale

This book examines the theoretical and practical issues surrounding today's technology-integrated classroom. The chapters cover the following topics: (1) reasons to integrate technology into the classroom, including the changing world, enriched learning and increased productivity, the learner, the workplace, past experience, and future trends; (2)…

The Drug Problem.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gose, Ben

1995-01-01

Drug law violations have risen sharply on college campuses, but officials disagree on the reason. Some students feel administrators are invading their privacy. The trend is attributed to several factors, including changes in how violations are counted, reduced tolerance of increased drug use by non-drug-using students, and more vigorous…

2008 Solar Technologies Market Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, S.; Margolis, R.; Barbose, G.

2010-01-01

The focus of this report is the U.S. solar electricity market, including photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of global and U.S. installation trends. Chapter 2 presents production and shipment data, material and supply chain issues, and solar industry employment trends. Chapter 3 presents cost, price, and performance trends. Chapter 4 discusses policy and market drivers such as recently passed federal legislation, state and local policies, and developments in project financing. Chapter 5 provides data on private investment trends and near-term market forecasts. Highlights of thismore » report include: (1) The global PV industry has seen impressive growth rates in cell/module production during the past decade, with a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% and a 5-year CAGR of 56% through 2008. (2) Thin-film PV technologies have grown faster than crystalline silicon over the past 5 years, with a 10-year CAGR of 47% and a 5-year CAGR of 87% for thin-film shipments through 2008. (3) Global installed PV capacity increased by 6.0 GW in 2008, a 152% increase over 2.4 GW installed in 2007. (4) The United States installed 0.34 GW of PV capacity in 2008, a 63% increase over 0.21 GW in 2007. (5) Global average PV module prices dropped 23% from $4.75/W in 1998 to $3.65/W in 2008. (6) Federal legislation, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA, October 2008) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, February 2009), is providing unprecedented levels of support for the U.S. solar industry. (7) In 2008, global private-sector investment in solar energy technology topped $16 billion, including almost $4 billion invested in the United States. (8) Solar PV market forecasts made in early 2009 anticipate global PV production and demand to increase fourfold between 2008 and 2012, reaching roughly 20 GW of production and demand by 2012. (9) Globally, about 13 GW of CSP was announced or proposed through 2015, based on forecasts made in mid-2009. Regional market shares for the 13 GW are about 51% in the United States, 33% in Spain, 8% in the Middle East and North Africa, and 8% in Australasia, Europe, and South Africa. Of the 6.5-GW project pipeline in the United States, 4.3 GW have power purchase agreements (PPAs). The PPAs comprise 41% parabolic trough, 40% power tower, and 19% dish-engine systems.« less

Long terms trends in CD4+ cell counts, CD8+ cell counts, and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio

PubMed Central

Hughes, Rachael A.; May, Margaret T.; Tilling, Kate; Taylor, Ninon; Wittkop, Linda; Reiss, Peter; Gill, John; Schommers, Philipp; Costagliola, Dominique; Guest, Jodie L.; Lima, Viviane D.; d’Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Smith, Colette; Cavassini, Matthias; Saag, Michael; Castilho, Jessica L.; Sterne, Jonathan A.C.

2018-01-01

Objective: Model trajectories of CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and use the model to predict trends in these counts and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. Design: Cohort study of antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive adults who started ART after 1997 (ART Cohort Collaboration) with more than 6 months of follow-up data. Methods: We jointly estimated CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and their correlation using a bivariate random effects model, with linear splines describing their population trends, and predicted the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend from this model. We assessed whether CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend varied according to CD4+ cell count at start of ART (baseline), and, whether these trends differed in patients with and without virological failure more than 6 months after starting ART. Results: A total of 39 979 patients were included (median follow-up was 53 months). Among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 50 cells/μl, predicted mean CD8+ cell counts continued to decrease between 3 and 15 years post-ART, partly driving increases in the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. During 15 years of follow-up, normalization of the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio (to >1) was only observed among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 200 cells/μl. A higher baseline CD4+ cell count predicted a shorter time to normalization. Conclusion: Declines in CD8+ cell count and increases in CD4+ : CD8+ ratio occurred up to 15 years after starting ART. The likelihood of normalization of the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio is strongly related to baseline CD4+ cell count. PMID:29851663

Trends in mental health inequalities in England during a period of recession, austerity and welfare reform 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Kinderman, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret

2015-12-01

Several indicators of population mental health in the UK have deteriorated since the financial crisis, during a period when a number of welfare reforms and austerity measures have been implemented. We do not know which groups have been most affected by these trends or the extent to which recent economic trends or recent policies have contributed to them. We use data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey to investigate trends in self reported mental health problems by socioeconomic group and employment status in England between 2004 and 2013. We then use panel regression models to investigate the association between local trends in mental health problems and local trends in unemployment and wages to investigate the extent to which these explain increases in mental health problems during this time. We found that the trend in the prevalence of people reporting mental health problems increased significantly more between 2009 and 2013 compared to the previous trends. This increase was greatest amongst people with low levels of education and inequalities widened. The gap in prevalence between low and high educated groups widened by 1.29 percentage points for women (95% CI: 0.50 to 2.08) and 1.36 percentage points for men (95% CI: 0.31 to 2.42) between 2009 and 2013. Trends in unemployment and wages only partly explained these recent increases in mental health problems. The trend in reported mental health problems across England broadly mirrored the pattern of increases in suicides and antidepressant prescribing. Welfare policies and austerity measures implemented since 2010 may have contributed to recent increases in mental health problems and widening inequalities. This has led to rising numbers of people with low levels of education out of work with mental health problems. These trends are likely to increase social exclusion as well as demand for and reliance on social welfare systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, M. A.; Adam, J. C.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Serreze, M. C.; Hinzman, L. D.; Holland, M.; Shiklomanov, A.

2007-12-01

It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in river discharge across Arctic Eurasia are assumed to represent such an intensification and have received considerable attention. Yet, no change in long-term annual precipitation across the region can be related with the discharge trend. Given linkages and feedbacks between the arctic and global climate systems, a more complete understanding of observed changes across northern high latitudes is needed. We present a working definition of an accelerated or intensified hydrological cycle and a synthesis of long-term (nominally 50 years) trends in observed freshwater stocks and fluxes across the arctic land-atmosphere-ocean system. Trend and significance measures from observed data are described alongside expectations of intensification based on GCM simulations of contemporary and future climate. Our domain of interest includes the terrestrial arctic drainage (including all of Alaska and drainage to Hudson Bay), the Arctic Ocean, and the atmosphere over the land and ocean domains. For the terrestrial Arctic, time series of spatial averages which are derived from station data and atmospheric reanalysis are available. Reconstructed data sets are used for quantities such as Arctic Ocean ice and liquid freshwater transports. Study goals include a comprehensive survey of past changes in freshwater across the pan-arctic and a set of benchmarks for expected changes based on an ensemble of GCM simulations, and identification of potential mechanistic linkages which may be examined with contemporary remote sensing data sets.

Temporal trends of in-hospital complications associated with catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation in the United States: An update from Nationwide Inpatient Sample database (2011-2014).

PubMed

Tripathi, Byomesh; Arora, Shilpkumar; Kumar, Varun; Abdelrahman, Mohamed; Lahewala, Sopan; Dave, Mihir; Shah, Mahek; Tan, Bryan; Savani, Sejal; Badheka, Apurva; Gopalan, Radha; Shantha, Ghanshyam Palamaner Subash; Viles-Gonzalez, Juan; Deshmukh, Abhishek

2018-05-01

Catheter ablation is widely accepted intervention for atrial fibrillation (AF) refractory to antiarrhythmic drugs, but limited data are available regarding contemporary trends in major complications and in-hospital mortality due to the procedure. This study was aimed at exploring the temporal trends of in-hospital mortality, major complications, and impact of hospital volume on frequency of AF ablation-related outcomes. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample database was utilized to identify the AF patients treated with catheter ablation. In-hospital death and common complications including vascular access complications, cardiac perforation and/or tamponade, pneumothorax, stroke, and transient ischemic attack, were identified using International Classification of Disease (ICD-9-CM) codes. In-hospital mortality rate of 0.15% and overall complication rate of 5.46% were noted among AF ablation recipients (n = 50,969). Significant increase in complications during study period (relative increase 56.37%, P-trend < 0.001) was observed. Cardiac (2.65%), vascular (1.33%), and neurological (1.05%) complications were most common. On multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR]; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]; P value), significant predictors of complications were female sex (OR = 1.40; CI = 1.17-1.68; P value < 0.001), high burden of comorbidity as indicated by Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥2 (OR = 2.84; CI = 2.29-3.52; P value < 0.001), and low hospital volume (< 50 procedures). Our study noted a decline in AF ablation-related hospitalizations and complications associated with the procedure. These findings largely reflect shifting trends of outpatient performance of the procedure and increasing safety profile due to improved institutional expertise and catheter techniques. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Deregulation of sale of over-the-counter drugs outside of pharmacies in the Republic of Korea: interrupted-time-series analysis of outpatient visits before and after the policy.

PubMed

Chun, Sung-Youn; Park, Hye-Ki; Han, Kyu-Tae; Kim, Woorim; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Park, Eun-Cheol

2017-07-12

We evaluated the effectiveness of a policy allowing for the sale of over-the-counter drugs outside of pharmacies by examining its effect on number of monthly outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory infections, dyspepsia, and migraine. We used medical claims data extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance Cohort Database from 2009 to 2013. The Korean National Health Insurance Cohort Database comprises a nationally representative sample of claims - about 2% of the entire population - obtained from the medical record data held by the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation (which has data on the entire nation). The analysis included26,284,706 person-months of 1,042,728 individuals. An interrupted-time series analysis was performed. Outcome measures were monthly outpatient visits for acute upper respiratory infections, dyspepsia, and migraine. To investigate the effect of the policy, we compared the number of monthly visits before and after the policy's implementation in 2012. For acute upper respiratory infections, monthly outpatient visits showed a decreasing trend before the policy (ß = -0.0003);after it, a prompt change and increasing trend in monthly outpatient visits were observed, but these were non-significant. For dyspepsia, the trend was increasing before implementation (ß = -0.0101), but this reversed after implementation(ß = -0.007). For migraine, an increasing trend was observed before the policy (ß = 0.0057). After it, we observed a significant prompt change (ß = -0.0314) but no significant trend. Deregulation of selling over-the-counter medication outside of pharmacies reduced monthly outpatient visits for dyspepsia and migraine symptoms, but not acute upper respiratory infections.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

DataView: Business, Households, and Government: Health Spending, 1994

PubMed Central

Cowan, Cathy A.; Braden, Bradley R.; McDonnell, Patricia A.; Sivarajan, Lekha

1996-01-01

During the 1990s, growth in health care costs slowed considerably, helping to lessen the spending strain on business, government, and households. Although cost growth has slowed, the Federal Government continues to pay an ever-increasing share of the total health care bill. This article reviews important health care spending trends, and for the first time, provides separate estimates of the employer and employee share of the premium costs for employer-sponsored private health insurance. This article also highlights some of the emerging trends in the employer-sponsored insurance market, including managed care, cost-sharing, and employment shifts. PMID:10165707

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Introduction to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) of ground-water quality trends and comparison to other national programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosen, Michael R.; Lapham, W.W.

2008-01-01

Assessment of temporal trends in national ground-water quality networks are rarely published in scientific journals. This is partly due to the fact that long-term data from these types of networks are uncommon and because many national monitoring networks are not driven by hypotheses that can be easily incorporated into scientific research. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) since 1991 has to date (2006) concentrated on occurrence of contaminants because sufficient data for trend analysis is only just becoming available. This paper introduces the first set of trend assessments from NAWQA and provides an assessment of the success of the program. On a national scale, nitrate concentrations in ground water have generally increased from 1988 to 2004, but trends in pesticide concentrations are less apparent. Regionally, the studies showed high nitrate concentrations and frequent pesticide detections are linked to agricultural use of fertilizers and pesticides. Most of these areas showed increases in nitrate concentration within the last decade, and these increases are associated with oxic-geochemical conditions and well-drained soils. The current NAWQA plan for collecting data to define trends needs to be constantly reevaluated to determine if the approach fulfills the expected outcome. To assist this evaluation, a comparison of NAWQA to other national ground-water quality programs was undertaken. The design and spatial extent of each national program depend on many factors, including current and long-term budgets, purpose of the program, size of the country, and diversity of aquifer types. Comparison of NAWQA to nine other national programs shows a great diversity in program designs, but indicates that different approaches can achieve similar and equally important goals. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Trends in Ocean Colour and Chlorophyll Concentration from 1889 to 2000, Worldwide

PubMed Central

Wernand, Marcel R.; van der Woerd, Hendrik J.; Gieskes, Winfried W. C.

2013-01-01

Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major ‘greenhouse gas’, and variations in the concentration of the ocean's phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans – but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of ‘the’ ocean. PMID:23776435

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

PubMed

Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, Fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch Rates and Trends, 1991–2011

PubMed Central

Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity. PMID:24740258

A cohort study: temporal trends in prevalence of antecedents, comorbidities and mortality in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians with first heart failure hospitalization, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Teng, Tiew-Hwa Katherine; Katzenellenbogen, Judith M; Hung, Joseph; Knuiman, Matthew; Sanfilippo, Frank M; Geelhoed, Elizabeth; Bessarab, Dawn; Hobbs, Michael; Thompson, Sandra C

2015-08-12

Little is known about trends in risk factors and mortality for Aboriginal Australians with heart failure (HF). This population-based study evaluated trends in prevalence of risk factors, 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality following first HF hospitalization among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Western Australians in the decade 2000-2009. Linked-health data were used to identify patients (20-84 years), with a first-ever HF hospitalization. Trends in demographics, comorbidities, interventions and risk factors were evaluated. Logistic and Cox regression models were fitted to test and compare trends over time in 30-day and 1-year mortality. Of 17,379 HF patients, 1,013 (5.8%) were Aboriginal. Compared with 2000-2002, the prevalence (as history) of myocardial infarction and hypertension increased more markedly in 2006-2009 in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) patients, while diabetes and chronic kidney disease remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal patients. Risk factor trends, including the Charlson comorbidity index, increased over time in younger Aboriginal patients. Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality did not change over the decade in either group. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality (in 30-day survivors) was non-significantly higher in Aboriginal patients in 2006-2008 compared with 2000-2002 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.44; 95% CI 0.85-2.41; p-trend = 0.47) whereas it decreased in non-Aboriginal patients (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.78-0.97; p-trend = 0.01). Between 2000 and 2009, the prevalence of HF antecedents increased and remained disproportionately higher in Aboriginal (versus non-Aboriginal) HF patients. Risk-adjusted 1-year mortality did not improve in Aboriginal patients over the period in contrast with non-Aboriginal patients. These findings highlight the need for better prevention and post-HF care in Aboriginal Australians.

Air pollution trends over Indian megacities and their local-to-global implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurjar, B. R.; Ravindra, Khaiwal; Nagpure, Ajay Singh

2016-10-01

More than half of the world's population lives in urban areas. It is estimated that by 2030 there will be 41 megacities and most of them will be located in developing countries. The megacities in India (Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata) collectively have >46 million inhabitants. Increasing population and prosperity results in rapid growth of the already large consumption of energy and other resources, which contributes to air pollution, among other problems. Megacity pollution outflow plumes contain high levels of criteria pollutants (e.g. Particulate matter, SO2, NOx), greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols; which can affect the atmosphere not only on a local scale but also on regional and global scales. In the current study, emissions and concentration trends of criteria and other air pollutants (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and greenhouse gases) were examined in the three Indian megacities. Further, various policies and control strategies adopted by Indian Government are also discussed to improve air quality. Decreasing trends of SO2 was observed in all three megacities due to decrease in the sulfur content in coal and diesel. However, increasing trend for NOx was found in these megacities due to increase in number of vehicles registered and high flash point of CNG engines, which leads to higher NOx emission. In terms of SPM and PM10, highest emissions have been found at Kolkata, whereas highest ambient concentrations were recorded in Delhi. For Mumbai and Kolkata fluctuating trends of SPM concentrations were observed between 1991 and 1998 and stable afterwards till 2005; whereas for Delhi, fluctuating trend was observed for the entire study period. However, several steps have been taken to control air pollution in India but there is a need to focus on control of non-exhaust emissions including municipal solid waste and biomass burning in the megacities and surrounding areas.

Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.

2017-11-01

The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier datasets over individual regions are identified in order to be more cautiously used in future regional climate studies.

New measurements of photospheric magnetic fields in late-type stars and emerging trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saar, S. H.; Linsky, J. L.

1986-01-01

The magnetic fields of late-type stars are measured using the method of Saar et al. (1986). The method includes radiative transfer effects and compensation for line blending; the photospheric magnetic field parameters are derived by comparing observed and theoretical line profiles using an LTE code that includes line saturation and full Zeeman pattern. The preliminary mean active region magnetic field strengths (B) and surface area coverages for 20 stars are discussed. It is observed that there is a trend of increasing B towards the cooler dwarfs stars, and the linear correlation between B and the equipartition value of the magnetic field strength suggests that the photospheric gas pressure determines the photospheric magnetic field strengths. A tendency toward larger filling factors at larger stellar angular velocities is also detected.

[Trends of Tobacco and Alcohol Consumption over 65 Years in Germany].

PubMed

John, Ulrich; Hanke, Monika

2018-02-01

No estimation was available for tobacco and for alcohol consumption in Germany based on sales data that were provided for public use and suited for time trend analysis. To estimate trends of tobacco and alcohol consumption rates for the years 1950-2014. Data on tobacco and alcohol consumption in the nation were retrieved from reports made by producers of beer, wine, or spirits to the Federal Statistics Office of Germany. Time trends over the 65 years were calculated using the program Joinpoint. Tobacco consumption rose from 1950 to 1972. Thereafter it decreased, mostly by 1.2-6.9 percentage points per year. Alcohol consumption rose until the year 1974 and decreased thereafter by 1.0 percentage points annually until the end of the time period under analysis in 2014. The findings may be explained, among others, by changes of social norms according to smoking and alcohol consumption after tax increases, nonsmoker and youth protection laws, and legislative measures against driving under the influence of alcohol. A steepening of the decrease in tobacco consumption occurred after laws including tax increases had come into effect. However, the tobacco and alcohol consumption levels were still high at the end of the observation period in 2014. Eigentümer und Copyright ©Georg Thieme Verlag KG 2018.

Dose-dependent protective effect of breast-feeding against breast cancer among ever-lactated women in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonju; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Lee, Kyoung-Mu; Park, Sue Kyung; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Noh, Dong-Young; Hong, Yun-Chul; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young

2007-04-01

Lactation might have a crucial role in an extraordinary increase in breast cancer incidence in Korea, as the proportion of mothers who practised breast-feeding fell dramatically. This hospital-based case-control analysis has been carried out since 1997 to evaluate whether lactation is associated with breast cancer risk in Korean women. Among the eligible study participants, a total of 753 histologically confirmed incident cases and an equal number of controls were included in the analysis. The risk was estimated using unconditional logistic regression models. Family history, older at menopause, more full-term pregnancies increased the risk of breast cancer. Breast cancer risk decreased according to the total months of breast-feeding (P for trend=0.03). Average duration of breast-feeding of 11-12 months reduced risk of breast cancer by 54% compared with the duration of 1-4 months (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.70). The decreasing risk trend according to average months of breast-feeding was also statistically significant (P for trend=0.02). Moreover, a reduced risk of breast cancer was apparent when analysis was restricted to the first breast-fed child (P for trend=0.006). This study confirms that lactation has an apparent dose-dependent protective effect against breast cancer in Korean women.

Incidence, Trends and Ethnic Differences of Oropharyngeal, Anal and Cervical Cancers: Singapore, 1968-2012

PubMed Central

Lam, Jennifer O.; Lim, Wei-Yen; Chow, Khuan-Yew; D’Souza, Gypsyamber

2015-01-01

In recent decades, several Western countries have reported an increase in oropharyngeal and anal cancers caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). Trends in HPV-associated cancers in Asia have not been as well described. We describe the epidemiology of potentially HPV-related cancers reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry from 1968–2012. Analysis included 998 oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), 183 anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) and 8,019 invasive cervical cancer (ICC) cases. Additionally, 368 anal non-squamous cell carcinoma (ANSCC) and 2,018 non-oropharyngeal head and neck carcinoma (non-OP HNC) cases were included as comparators. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were determined by gender and ethnicity (Chinese, Malay and Indian). Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate annual percentage change (APC) in incidence. OPSCC incidence increased in both genders (men 1993–2012, APC = 1.9%, p<0.001; women 1968–2012, APC = 2.0%, p = 0.01) and was 5 times higher in men than women. In contrast, non-OP HNC incidence declined between 1968–2012 among men (APC = -1.6%, p<0.001) and women (APC = -0.4%, p = 0.06). ASCC and ANSCC were rare (ASR = 0.2 and 0.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively) and did not change significantly over time except for increasing ANSCCs in men (APC = 2.8%, p<0.001). ICC was the most common HPV-associated cancer (ASR = 19.9 per 100,000 person-years) but declined significantly between 1968–2012 (APC = -2.4%). Incidence of each cancer varied across ethnicities. Similar to trends in Western countries, OPSCC incidence increased in recent years, while non-OP HNC decreased. ICC remains the most common HPV-related cancer in Singapore, but Pap screening programs have led to consistently decreasing incidence. PMID:26720001

Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

PubMed

Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

2015-01-01

The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p <0.001). An increase in suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; p<0.001). Most suicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

Limitations of Reliability for Long-Endurance Human Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owens, Andrew C.; de Weck, Olivier L.

2016-01-01

Long-endurance human spaceflight - such as missions to Mars or its moons - will present a never-before-seen maintenance logistics challenge. Crews will be in space for longer and be farther way from Earth than ever before. Resupply and abort options will be heavily constrained, and will have timescales much longer than current and past experience. Spare parts and/or redundant systems will have to be included to reduce risk. However, the high cost of transportation means that this risk reduction must be achieved while also minimizing mass. The concept of increasing system and component reliability is commonly discussed as a means to reduce risk and mass by reducing the probability that components will fail during a mission. While increased reliability can reduce maintenance logistics mass requirements, the rate of mass reduction decreases over time. In addition, reliability growth requires increased test time and cost. This paper assesses trends in test time requirements, cost, and maintenance logistics mass savings as a function of increase in Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) for some or all of the components in a system. In general, reliability growth results in superlinear growth in test time requirements, exponential growth in cost, and sublinear benefits (in terms of logistics mass saved). These trends indicate that it is unlikely that reliability growth alone will be a cost-effective approach to maintenance logistics mass reduction and risk mitigation for long-endurance missions. This paper discusses these trends as well as other options to reduce logistics mass such as direct reduction of part mass, commonality, or In-Space Manufacturing (ISM). Overall, it is likely that some combination of all available options - including reliability growth - will be required to reduce mass and mitigate risk for future deep space missions.

Food Portion Patterns and Trends among U.S. Children and the Relationship to Total Eating Occasion Size, 1977–2006123

PubMed Central

Piernas, Carmen; Popkin, Barry M.

2011-01-01

Food and beverage portion sizes are related to childhood obesity. We examined trends in food portion sizes and the association with total meal sizes among U.S. children. We selected children 2- to 18-y-old (n = 31,337) from 4 nationally representative surveys of food intake between 1977–1978 and 2003–2006. We assessed portion sizes (kcal and g) of selected key foods (soft/fruit drinks, salty snacks, desserts, French fries, burgers, pizzas, Mexican fast foods, and hot dogs), the total energy from eating occasions that included key foods, and portion sizes of the selected key foods by source (stores, restaurants, and fast-food locations). These foods represented over one-third of children’s energy intake in 2003–2006. Portion sizes increased significantly over the 30-y period and increases in pizza were particularly pronounced in the last decade [+176 kcal (736 kJ). Energy from eating occasions including pizzas and soft drinks increased, as did the proportion of energy from these foods in an eating occasion. Hamburgers and cheeseburgers increased in portion size and eating occasion size, but the proportion of these foods in the total eating occasions did not increase. Portion sizes of other key foods increased, although the total energy from eating events that included them remained constant (e.g. Mexican fast-foods, French fries, fruit drinks) or decreased (e.g. salty snacks, desserts). Portion sizes increased across all food sources (stores, restaurants, and fast foods) for soft drinks and pizzas but only at fast-food locations for French fries. Portion sizes continue to grow for selected foods. Fast-food chains appear to be linked with less healthful portion size increases for selected foods. PMID:21525258

Trends in the surgical treatment for spinal metastasis and the in-hospital patient outcomes in the United States from 2000 to 2009.

PubMed

Yoshihara, Hiroyuki; Yoneoka, Daisuke

2014-09-01

Surgical treatment for spinal metastasis is still controversial. However, with the improvements in treatment for primary tumors, the survival rate of patients with spinal metastasis is enhanced. At the same time, surgical technique for spinal metastasis has also improved. The purpose of this study was to examine trends in the surgical treatment for spinal metastasis and in-hospital patient outcomes on a national level. This was an epidemiologic study using national administrative data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All discharges in the NIS with a diagnosis code of secondary malignant neoplasm of the spinal cord/brain, meninges, or bone who also underwent spinal surgery from 2000 to 2009 were included. Trends in the surgical treatment for spinal metastasis, in-hospital complications and mortality, and resource use were analyzed. The NIS was used to identify patients who underwent surgical treatment for spinal metastasis from 2000 to 2009, using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification codes. Trends in the surgical treatment for spinal metastasis and in-hospital patient outcomes were analyzed. From 2000 to 2009, there was an increasing trend in the population growth-adjusted rate of surgical treatment for spinal metastasis (1.15-1.77 per 100,000; p<.001). Average Elixhauser comorbidity score increased over time (2.6-3.8; p<.001), and the overall in-hospital complication rate increased over time (14.8%-27.7%; p<.001), whereas in-hospital mortality rate and length of hospital stay remained stable over time (5.2%-4.6%, p=.413; 10.6-10.8 days, p=.626). Inflation-adjusted mean hospital charges increased more than two-fold over time ($50,390-$110,173; p<.001). During the last decade, surgical treatment for spinal metastasis has increased in the United States. The overall in-hospital complication rate and hospital charges increased, whereas the in-hospital mortality rate and length of hospital stay remained stable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Caesarean Section in Peru: Analysis of Trends Using the Robson Classification System

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Introduction Cesarean section rates continue to increase worldwide while the reasons appear to be multiple, complex and, in many cases, country specific. Over the last decades, several classification systems for caesarean section have been created and proposed to monitor and compare caesarean section rates in a standardized, reliable, consistent and action-oriented manner with the aim to understand the drivers and contributors of this trend. The aims of the present study were to conduct an analysis in the three Peruvian geographical regions to assess levels and trends of delivery by caesarean section using the Robson classification for caesarean section, identify the groups of women with highest caesarean section rates and assess variation of maternal and perinatal outcomes according to caesarean section levels in each group over time. Material and Methods Data from 549,681 pregnant women included in the Peruvian Perinatal Information System database from 43 maternal facilities in three Peruvian geographical regions from 2000 and 2010 were studied. The data were analyzed using the Robson classification and women were studied in the ten groups in the classification. Cochran-Armitage test was used to evaluate time trends in the rates of caesarean section rates and; logistic regression was used to evaluate risk for each classification. Results The caesarean section rate was 27% and a yearly increase in the overall caesarean section rates from 2000 to 2010 from 23.5% to 30% (time trend p<0.001) was observed. Robson groups 1, 3 (nulliparous and multiparas, respectively, with a single cephalic term pregnancy in spontaneous labour), 5 (multiparas with a previous uterine scar with a single, cephalic, term pregnancy) and 7 (multiparas with a single breech pregnancy with or without previous scars) showed an increase in the caesarean section rates over time. Robson groups 1 and 3 were significantly associated with stillbirths (OR 1.43, CI95% 1.17–1.72; OR 3.53, CI95% 2.95–4.2) and maternal mortality (OR 3.39, CI95% 1.59–7.22; OR 8.05, CI95% 3.34–19.41). Discussion The caesarean section rates increased in the last years as result of increased CS in groups with spontaneous labor and in-group of multiparas with a scarred uterus. Women included in groups 1 y 3 were associated to maternal perinatal complications. Women with previous cesarean section constitute the most important determinant of overall cesarean section rates. The use of Robson classification becomes an useful tool for monitoring cesarean section in low human development index countries. PMID:26840693

Projection display technology and product trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Frederic J.

1999-05-01

Major technology and market trends that could generate a 20 billion dollar electronic projector market by 2010 are reviewed in the perspective of recent product introductions. A log linear analysis shows that the light outputs of benchmark transportable data video projectors have increased at a rate of almost 90 percent per year since 1993. The list prices of these same projectors have decreased at a rate of over 40 percent per year. The tradeoffs of light output vs. resolution and weight are illustrated. Recent trends in projector efficacy vs. year are discussed. Lumen output per dollar of list price is shown to be a useful market metric. Continued technical advances and innovations including higher throughput light valve technologies with integrated drivers, brighter light source, field sequential color, integrated- and micro-optical components, and aerospace materials are likely to sustain these trends. The new technologies will enable projection displays for entertainment and computer applications with unprecedented levels of performance, compactness, and cost-effectiveness.

Time series analysis of patients seeking orthodontic treatment at Seoul National University Dental Hospital over the past decade

PubMed Central

Lim, Hyun-Woo; Park, Ji-Hoon; Park, Hyun-Hee

2017-01-01

Objective This paper describes changes in the characteristics of patients seeking orthodontic treatment over the past decade and the treatment they received, to identify any seasonal variations or trends. Methods This single-center retrospective cohort study included all patients who presented to Seoul National University Dental Hospital for orthodontic diagnosis and treatment between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2015. The study analyzed a set of heterogeneous variables grouped into the following categories: demographic (age, gender, and address), clinical (Angle Classification, anomaly, mode of orthodontic treatment, removable appliances for Phase 1 treatment, fixed appliances for Phase 2 treatment, orthognathic surgery, extraction, mini-plate, mini-implant, and patient transfer) and time-related variables (date of first visit and orthodontic treatment time). Time series analysis was applied to each variable. Results The sample included 14,510 patients with a median age of 19.5 years. The number of patients and their ages demonstrated a clear seasonal variation, which peaked in the summer and winter. Increasing trends were observed for the proportion of male patients, use of non-extraction treatment modality, use of ceramic brackets, patients from provinces outside the Seoul region at large, patients transferred from private practitioners, and patients who underwent orthognathic surgery performed by university surgeons. Decreasing trends included the use of metal brackets and orthodontic treatment time. Conclusions Time series analysis revealed a seasonal variation in some characteristics, and several variables showed changing trends over the past decade. PMID:28861391

The futures of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa: pathways of growth and change.

PubMed

Catley, A; Lind, J; Scoones, I

2016-11-01

This paper reviews pastoralism in the Horn of Africa region with reference to the basic socio-economics of pastoralism, and the use of mobile livestock production to generate income and food for human consumption. The paper also examines long-term trends in pastoralist areas which, at first sight, appear to be contradictory. The first trend is the growth of a substantial domestic and export trade in livestock and meat across the region, driven largely by supplies from pastoralist areas and local and international demand. This trend indicates robust and responsive livestock production and marketing in pastoralist areas, despite recurrent drought, conflict and weak governance. In contrast, the second trend sees increasing levels of poverty and destitution in pastoralist areas, and continued high levels of human malnutrition. The co-existence of economic growth and increasing poverty in 'high-export' areas is explained by human population growth, drought, and the private control of pastures and water by wealthier producers. All of these factors combine to push poorer producers out of pastoralism. In areas with lower market orientation, other forms of declining land access are often evident, including the appropriation of land for mechanised farming, hydroelectric schemes, and bush encroachment. These changes, plus population growth and drought, also push people out of pastoralism. In all areas, pastoralism will continue to be the main economic activity but, at the same time, increasing numbers of people are seeking other livelihoods.

Growth trends in boys and girls (10-17 years-old) from autonomous region of Madeira, Portugal between 1996-1998 and 2007-2009.

PubMed

Sousa, B; Oliveira, B M P M; de Almeida, M D V

2012-01-01

Growth trends have never been studied in adolescents of the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. To analyse growth trends in weight, height, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and triceps skin-fold thickness (TST) of adolescents (10-17 years old) of the Autonomous Region of Madeira between 1996-1998 and 2007-2009. A cross-sectional study was carried out between 2007-2009, including 4314 adolescents, 2237 girls and 2077 boys (10-17 years old). To study secular growth trends, data were compared with a sample from 1996-1998, comparing the means for each anthropometric variable by age and sex using the independent-sample t-test. An average increase was found in weight of 5.8 kg in boys and 6.3 kg in girls; in height of 3.0 cm in boys and 3.7 cm in girls; in BMI of 1.5 kg/m(2) in boys and 1.7 kg/m(2) in girls; in WC a difference of 5.6 cm and 4.9 cm for boys and girls, respectively, and for MUAC a difference of 2.7 cm in boys and 2.0 cm in girls. No differences were found in TST in boys, but in girls an increase of 1.2 mm was observed. A general increase in anthropometric measurements, more marked in weight, BMI, WC and MUAC and at younger ages, was observed.

Trends in hospitalizations for community-acquired pneumonia in Spain: 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

de Miguel-Díez, Javier; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-Trujillo, Isabel; de Miguel-Yanes, José M; Méndez-Bailón, Manuel; López-de-Andrés, Ana

2017-05-01

To describe trends in the incidence and outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) hospitalizations in Spain (2004-2013). We used national hospital discharge data to select all hospital admissions for CAP as primary diagnosis. We analyzed incidence, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, pathogens, length of hospital stay (LOHS), in-hospital mortality (IHM) and readmission. We identified 959,465 admissions for CAP. Incidence rates of CAP increased significantly over time (from 142.4 in 2004 to 163.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013). Time trend analyses showed significant increases in the number of comorbidities and the use of CAT of thorax, red cell transfusion, non-invasive mechanical ventilation and readmissions (all p values<0.05). S. pneumoniae was the most frequent causative agent, but its isolation decreased over time. Overall median of LOHS was 7days and it did not change significantly during the study period. Time trend analyses also showed significant decreases in mortality during admission for CAP. Factor associated with higher IHM included: older age, higher CCI, S. aureus isolated, use of red cell transfusion or mechanical ventilation and readmission. The incidence and mortality of CAP have changed in Spain from 2004 to 2013. Although there was an increased incidence of hospitalization for this disease over time, we saw a significant reduction in IHM. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dietary trends in the Middle East and North Africa: an ecological study (1961 to 2007).

PubMed

Golzarand, Mahdieh; Mirmiran, Parvin; Jessri, Mahsa; Toolabi, Karamollah; Mojarrad, Mehdi; Azizi, Fereidoun

2012-10-01

Middle Eastern and North African countries are undergoing nutrition transition, a transition which is associated with an increased burden of non-communicable diseases. This necessitates the evaluation of dietary patterns in these regions. The present study aimed to assess changes in dietary patterns in Middle Eastern and North African countries between 1961 and 2007. Availability of energy and fifteen main food items during 1961-2007 was examined using FAO food balance sheets from the FAOSTAT database. Fifteen countries including nine in the Middle East and six in North Africa were selected and the average availability of total energy and different food items in these regions were compared. Over the 47 years studied, energy and food availability (apart from animal fats and alcoholic beverages) has increased in the Middle East and North Africa. In both regions the proportion of energy derived from meat and vegetable oils has increased significantly while that from cereals decreased significantly. In addition, the proportion of energy from milk and dairy products and vegetables has shown an ascending trend in North Africa while the proportion of energy from fruits has shown a descending trend in the Middle East. The study results reveal an unfavourable trend towards a Westernized diet in the Middle East and, to a certain extent, in North Africa. Tailored nutritional education encouraging healthy eating for prevention of the burden of chronic diseases in these countries seems essential.

Trends in adolescent mental health during economic upturns and downturns: a multilevel analysis of Swedish data 1988-2008

PubMed Central

Kim, Yunhwan; Hagquist, Curt

2018-01-01

Background A long-term trend of increasing mental health problems among adolescents in many Western countries indicates a great need to investigate if and how societal changes have contributed to the reported increase. Using seven waves of repeated cross-sectional data collected between 1988 and 2008 in Sweden, the current study examined if economic factors at the societal level (municipality unemployment rate) and at the individual level (worry about family finances), and their interaction could explain a secular trend in mental health problems. Methods Participants were 17 533 students of age 15–16 years (49.3% girls), from 14 municipalities in a county of Sweden. Data on adolescents’ mental health (psychosomatic problems) and worry about family finances were obtained using a self-report questionnaire. A series of multilevel regression analyses were conducted in order to explain the trends in adolescents’ mental health. Results The results indicated that the individual-level predictor (worry about family finances) significantly explained the increasing rates of adolescents’ psychosomatic problems. This was particularly the case during the mid-1990s, which was characterised by a severe recession in Sweden with high unemployment rates. For example, after accounting for adolescents’ worry, a significant increase in psychosomatic symptoms between 1988 and 1998 among girls (b=0.112, P<0.05) disappeared (b=0.018, P>0.05) and a non-significant decrease between 1988 and 1995 among boys (b=−0.017, P>0.05) became significant (b=−0.142, P<0.05). Neither municipality unemployment rate nor its interaction with adolescents’ worry explained psychosomatic problems. Conclusions The findings demonstrate the effects of adolescents’ worry about family finances on a secular trend in mental health problems during an economically bleak period of time. The study highlights the need for repeated measurements including a large number of time points over a long time period in order to analyse time-specific putative explanatory factors for trends in adolescent mental health problems. PMID:29203524

Analysis of trends in water-quality data for water conservation area 3A, the Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattraw, H.C.; Scheidt, D.J.; Federico, A.C.

1987-01-01

Rainfall and water quality data bases from the South Florida Water Management District were used to evaluate water quality trends at 10 locations near or in Water Conservation Area 3A in The Everglades. The Seasonal Kendall test was applied to specific conductance, orthophosphate-phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total nitrogen regression residuals for the period 1978-82. Residuals of orthophosphate and nitrate quadratic models, based on antecedent 7-day rainfall at inflow gate S-11B, were the only two constituent-structure pairs that showed apparent significant (p < 0.05) increases in constituent concentrations. Elimination of regression models with distinct residual patterns and data outlines resulted in 17 statistically significant station water quality combinations for trend analysis. No water quality trends were observed. The 1979 Memorandum of Agreement outlining the water quality monitoring program between the Everglades National Park and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stressed collection four times a year at three stations, and extensive coverage of water quality properties. Trend analysis and other rigorous statistical evaluation programs are better suited to data monitoring programs that include more frequent sampling and that are organized in a water quality data management system. Pronounced areal differences in water quality suggest that a water quality monitoring system for Shark River Slough in Everglades National Park include collection locations near the source of inflow to Water Conservation Area 3A. (Author 's abstract)

The DOPPS Practice Monitor for US dialysis care: trends through August 2011.

PubMed

Pisoni, Ronald L; Fuller, Douglas S; Bieber, Brian A; Gillespie, Brenda W; Robinson, Bruce M

2012-07-01

We have examined trends in hemodialysis practice from August 2010 to August 2011, a time frame spanning the implementation of the bundled PPS, a major ESA label change by the FDA, and announcements from CMS on the proposed and final rules for the first year of the Quality Incentive Program (QIP) plus the proposed rules for the second and third years of the QIP. Although many hemodialysis practices have remained stable during this 1-year time period, substantial changes have been seen. These include a decline in epoetin dose and hemoglobin levels, an increase in IV iron use and serum ferritin levels, and an increase in PTH levels. The rates of decline in hemoglobin and epoetin dosing levels were greatest in the 2 months after the ESA label change in June 2011. Trends in anemia care in ensuing months, with more follow-up time after the label change, will be of great interest. In view of declining hemoglobin levels, a mechanism for comprehensive monitoring of transfusion rates is warranted to understand this important aspect of care for hemodialysis patients. Regarding clinical outcomes, no trend in all-cause mortality has been evident during this 1-year time period. Additional follow-up is warranted to understand if findings reported here persist over time, and require confirmation with national data as these become available. Trends in clinical care may not necessarily affect patient outcomes, and careful evaluation is required to understand effects on patient outcomes.

Sickness absence among young employees: trends from 2002 to 2013.

PubMed

Sumanen, Hilla; Pietiläinen, Olli; Lahti, Jouni; Lahelma, Eero; Rahkonen, Ossi

2015-01-01

Young adults entering employment are a key group in extending work careers, but there is a lack of research on trends in work ability among young employees. Prolonged sickness absence (SA) constitutes a risk for permanent work disability. We examined 12-year trends in SA spells among young female and male municipal employees. The data were obtained from the employers' registers in the City of Helsinki, Finland. The data included employees aged 18-24, 25-29, 30-34, and 35-54 from 2002 to 2013 (the average number for each year was 31,600). Self-certified (1-3 days) and medically certified intermediate (4-14 days) and long (15+ days) SAs were examined. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify major changes in SA trends. Younger employees had more short SAs but fewer long SAs than older employees. During the study period, SAs of almost any length first increased and later decreased among both genders, except for young men. The turning points for short SA were in 2007-2011 among younger and older employees. In intermediate and long SAs the respective turning points were in 2008-2009 and 2005-2009. Women had more SAs in all categories. Age is related to the length of absences. Given the relatively low chronic morbidity among younger employees, it is likely that reasons other than ill health account for increased SA. More evidence on factors behind the changing trends is needed in order to reduce SA and extend the working careers of young people.

Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moses, Oliver; Hambira, Wame L.

2018-06-01

In semi-arid developing countries, most poor people depend on contaminated surface or groundwater resources since they do not have access to safe and centrally supplied water. These water resources are threatened by several factors that include high evapotranspiration rates. In the Okavango Delta region in the north-western Botswana, communities facing insufficient centrally supplied water rely mainly on the surface water resources of the Delta. The Delta loses about 98% of its water through evapotranspiration. However, the 2% remaining water rescues the communities facing insufficient water from the main stream water supply. To understand the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources, this study analysed trends in the main climatic parameters needed as input variables in evapotranspiration models. The Mann Kendall test was used in the analysis. Trend analysis is crucial since it reveals the direction of trends in the climatic parameters, which is helpful in determining the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The main climatic parameters required as input variables in evapotranspiration models that were of interest in this study were wind speeds, solar radiation and relative humidity. Very little research has been conducted on these climatic parameters in the Okavango Delta region. The conducted trend analysis was more on wind speeds, which had relatively longer data records than the other two climatic parameters of interest. Generally, statistically significant increasing trends have been found, which suggests that climate change is likely to further increase evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources.

Long-term vegetation activity trends in the Iberian Peninsula and The Balearic Islands using high spatial resolution NOAA-AVHRR data (1981 - 2015).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Hernandez, Natalia; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Begueria-Portugues, Santiago; Reig-Gracia, Fergus; Zabalza-Martínez, Javier

2017-04-01

We have analysed trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Iberian Peninsula and The Balearic Islands over the period 1981 - 2015 using a new high resolution data set from the entire available NOAA - AVHRR images (IBERIAN NDVI dataset). After a complete processing including geocoding, calibration, cloud removal, topographic correction and temporal filtering, we obtained bi-weekly time series. To assess the accuracy of the new IBERIAN NDVI time-series, we have compared temporal variability and trends of NDVI series with those results reported by GIMMS 3g and MODIS (MOD13A3) NDVI datasets. In general, the IBERIAN NDVI showed high reliability with these two products but showing higher spatial resolution than the GIMMS dataset and covering two more decades than the MODIS dataset. Using the IBERIAN NDVI dataset, we analysed NDVI trends by means of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimator. In average, vegetation trends in the study area show an increase over the last decades. However, there are local spatial differences: the main increase has been recorded in humid regions of the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The statistical techniques allow finding abrupt and gradual changes in different land cover types during the analysed period. These changes are related with human activity due to land transformations (from dry to irrigated land), land abandonment and forest recovery.

Cooking Methods for Red Meats and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Study of U.S. Women.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Zong, Geng; Hu, Frank B; Willett, Walter C; Eisenberg, David M; Sun, Qi

2017-08-01

This study examined different cooking methods for red meats in relation to type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk among U.S. women who consumed red meats regularly (≥2 servings/week). We monitored 59,033 women (1986-2012) aged 30-55 years and free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer at baseline when information on frequency of different cooking methods for red meats, including broiling, barbequing, roasting, pan-frying, and stewing/boiling, was collected. During 1.24 million person-years of follow-up, we documented 6,206 incident cases of T2D. After multivariate adjustment including red meat cooking methods, total red meat and processed red meat intake were both associated with a monotonically increased T2D risk (both P trend <0.05). After multivariate adjustment including total red meat intake, a higher frequency of broiling, barbequing, and roasting red meats was each independently associated with a higher T2D risk. When comparing ≥2 times/week with <1 time/month, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI of T2D were 1.29 (1.19, 1.40; P trend <0.001) for broiling, 1.23 (1.11, 1.38; P trend <0.001) for barbequing, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.23; P trend = 0.14) for roasting. In contrast, the frequency of stewing/boiling red meats was not associated with T2D risk, and an inverse association was observed for pan-frying frequency and T2D risk. The results remained similar after cooking methods were further mutually adjusted. Independent of total red meat consumption, high-temperature and/or open-flame cooking methods for red meats, especially broiling and barbequing, may further increase diabetes risk among regular meat eaters. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Late Maternal Deaths and Deaths from Sequelae of Obstetric Causes in the Americas from 1999 to 2013: A Trend Analysis.

PubMed

de Cosio, Federico G; Jiwani, Safia S; Sanhueza, Antonio; Soliz, Patricia N; Becerra-Posada, Francisco; Espinal, Marcos A

2016-01-01

Data on maternal deaths occurring after the 42 days postpartum reference time is scarce; the objective of this analysis is to explore the trend and magnitude of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes in the Americas between 1999 and 2013, and to recommend including these deaths in the monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Exploratory data analysis enabled analyzing the magnitude and trend of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes for seven countries of the Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and the United States. A Poisson regression model was developed to compare trends of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes between two periods of time: 1999 to 2005 and 2006 to 2013; and to estimate the relative increase of these deaths in the two periods of time. The proportion of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes ranged between 2.40% (CI 0.85% - 5.48%) and 18.68% (CI 17.06% - 20.47%) in the seven countries. The ratio of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes per 100,000 live births has increased by two times in the region of the Americas in the period 2006-2013 compared to the period 1999-2005. The regional relative increase of late maternal death was 2.46 (p<0.0001) times higher in the second period compared to the first. Ascertainment of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes has improved in the Americas since the early 2000's due to improvements in the quality of information and the obstetric transition. Late and obstetric sequelae maternal deaths should be included in the monitoring of the SDGs as well as in the revision of the International Classification of Diseases' 11th version (ICD-11).

Late Maternal Deaths and Deaths from Sequelae of Obstetric Causes in the Americas from 1999 to 2013: A Trend Analysis

PubMed Central

de Cosio, Federico G.; Sanhueza, Antonio; Soliz, Patricia N.; Becerra-Posada, Francisco; Espinal, Marcos A.

2016-01-01

Background Data on maternal deaths occurring after the 42 days postpartum reference time is scarce; the objective of this analysis is to explore the trend and magnitude of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes in the Americas between 1999 and 2013, and to recommend including these deaths in the monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Methods Exploratory data analysis enabled analyzing the magnitude and trend of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes for seven countries of the Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and the United States. A Poisson regression model was developed to compare trends of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes between two periods of time: 1999 to 2005 and 2006 to 2013; and to estimate the relative increase of these deaths in the two periods of time. Findings The proportion of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes ranged between 2.40% (CI 0.85% – 5.48%) and 18.68% (CI 17.06% – 20.47%) in the seven countries. The ratio of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes per 100,000 live births has increased by two times in the region of the Americas in the period 2006-2013 compared to the period 1999-2005. The regional relative increase of late maternal death was 2.46 (p<0.0001) times higher in the second period compared to the first. Interpretation Ascertainment of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes has improved in the Americas since the early 2000’s due to improvements in the quality of information and the obstetric transition. Late and obstetric sequelae maternal deaths should be included in the monitoring of the SDGs as well as in the revision of the International Classification of Diseases’ 11th version (ICD-11). PMID:27626277

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2015-01-01

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.