Mixed response and time-to-event endpoints for multistage single-arm phase II design.

PubMed

Lai, Xin; Zee, Benny Chung-Ying

2015-06-04

The objective of phase II cancer clinical trials is to determine if a treatment has sufficient activity to warrant further study. The efficiency of a conventional phase II trial design has been the object of considerable debate, particularly when the study regimen is characteristically cytostatic. At the time of development of a phase II cancer trial, we accumulated clinical experience regarding the time to progression (TTP) for similar classes of drugs and for standard therapy. By considering the time to event (TTE) in addition to the tumor response endpoint, a mixed-endpoint phase II design may increase the efficiency and ability of selecting promising cytotoxic and cytostatic agents for further development. We proposed a single-arm phase II trial design by extending the Zee multinomial method to fully use mixed endpoints with tumor response and the TTE. In this design, the dependence between the probability of response and the TTE outcome is modeled through a Gaussian copula. Given the type I and type II errors and the hypothesis as defined by the response rate (RR) and median TTE, such as median TTP, the decision rules for a two-stage phase II trial design can be generated. We demonstrated through simulation that the proposed design has a smaller expected sample size and higher early stopping probability under the null hypothesis than designs based on a single-response endpoint or a single TTE endpoint. The proposed design is more efficient for screening new cytotoxic or cytostatic agents and less likely to miss an effective agent than the alternative single-arm design.

Cost effectiveness of atorvastatin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a pharmacoeconomic analysis of the collaborative atorvastatin diabetes study in the belgian population.

PubMed

Annemans, L; Marbaix, S; Webb, K; Van Gaal, L; Scheen, A

2010-01-01

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus have a high risk of developing cardiovascular (CV) disease. The clinical benefit of use of statins in patients with type 2 diabetes has been demonstrated in several randomized, controlled trials, including the CARDS clinical trial. Based on the clinical CARDS data, the favourable cost effectiveness of atorvastatin 10 mg in patients with type 2 diabetes has been demonstrated in countries such as the UK and France. This study aimed to estimate the cost effectiveness in the Belgian setting of atorvastatin 10 mg compared with no treatment for the primary prevention of CV events in type 2 diabetes patients without a history of CV disease. A Markov model with 1-year cycles was developed to simulate the CV event and death risk according to the therapeutic approach initiated. The transition probabilities for CV events in the 'no statin treatment' group were derived from the risk equations reported from the large UKPDS. Risk reductions from the CARDS clinical trial were used to adjust these CV event probabilities in the atorvastatin 10 mg treatment group. The characteristics of type 2 diabetes patients without a CV history were derived from the Belgian OCAPI survey. The public healthcare payers' perspective was taken into account for costing. The direct medical costs of CV events were based on the Public Health Authorities' hospital database for acute care costs and on the literature for the follow-up costs. The impact on the reimbursement system of generic entry to the market was considered in the drug cost. Costs were valued as at year 2009; costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% and 1.5%, respectively. Based on a 5-year time horizon, atorvastatin was demonstrated to be cost effective with an incremental cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of euro 16,681. Over a lifetime horizon (25 years), atorvastatin was demonstrated to be a cost-saving therapeutic intervention. At a threshold of euro 30,000/QALY, atorvastatin had a 98.8% probability of being cost effective. Compared with 'no treatment', use of atorvastatin 10 mg as a primary prevention intervention in Belgian type 2 diabetes patients not only improves CV outcomes, but also appears to be cost saving over a lifetime horizon.

Extrapolation of vertical target motion through a brief visual occlusion.

PubMed

Zago, Myrka; Iosa, Marco; Maffei, Vincenzo; Lacquaniti, Francesco

2010-03-01

It is known that arbitrary target accelerations along the horizontal generally are extrapolated much less accurately than target speed through a visual occlusion. The extent to which vertical accelerations can be extrapolated through an occlusion is much less understood. Here, we presented a virtual target rapidly descending on a blank screen with different motion laws. The target accelerated under gravity (1g), decelerated under reversed gravity (-1g), or moved at constant speed (0g). Probability of each type of acceleration differed across experiments: one acceleration at a time, or two to three different accelerations randomly intermingled could be presented. After a given viewing period, the target disappeared for a brief, variable period until arrival (occluded trials) or it remained visible throughout (visible trials). Subjects were asked to press a button when the target arrived at destination. We found that, in visible trials, the average performance with 1g targets could be better or worse than that with 0g targets depending on the acceleration probability, and both were always superior to the performance with -1g targets. By contrast, the average performance with 1g targets was always superior to that with 0g and -1g targets in occluded trials. Moreover, the response times of 1g trials tended to approach the ideal value with practice in occluded protocols. To gain insight into the mechanisms of extrapolation, we modeled the response timing based on different types of threshold models. We found that occlusion was accompanied by an adaptation of model parameters (threshold time and central processing time) in a direction that suggests a strategy oriented to the interception of 1g targets at the expense of the interception of the other types of tested targets. We argue that the prediction of occluded vertical motion may incorporate an expectation of gravity effects.

Optimal Futility Interim Design: A Predictive Probability of Success Approach with Time-to-Event Endpoint.

PubMed

Tang, Zhongwen

2015-01-01

An analytical way to compute predictive probability of success (PPOS) together with credible interval at interim analysis (IA) is developed for big clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. The method takes account of the fixed data up to IA, the amount of uncertainty in future data, and uncertainty about parameters. Predictive power is a special type of PPOS. The result is confirmed by simulation. An optimal design is proposed by finding optimal combination of analysis time and futility cutoff based on some PPOS criteria.

Critical analysis of the use of onabotulinumtoxinA (botulinum toxin type A) in migraine.

PubMed

Robertson, Carrie E; Garza, Ivan

2012-01-01

OnabotulinumtoxinA, a neurotoxin, has been studied in numerous trials as a novel preventive therapy for migraine headache. The data would support that it may be effective at reducing headache days in patients suffering from chronic migraine (≥15 headache days/month, with eight or more of those migraine headache days). The mechanism by which onabotulinumtoxinA exerts its effects on migraine is not yet understood. It is known to inhibit acetylcholine release at the neuromuscular junction, but this probably does not explain the observed antinociceptive properties noted in preclinical and clinical trials. This review will discuss the known mechanisms of action of botulinum toxin type A, and will review the available randomized, placebo-controlled trials that have looked at its efficacy as a migraine preventative. We also describe the onabotulinumtoxinA injection sites used at our institution.

A modified varying-stage adaptive phase II/III clinical trial design.

PubMed

Dong, Gaohong; Vandemeulebroecke, Marc

2016-07-01

Conventionally, adaptive phase II/III clinical trials are carried out with a strict two-stage design. Recently, a varying-stage adaptive phase II/III clinical trial design has been developed. In this design, following the first stage, an intermediate stage can be adaptively added to obtain more data, so that a more informative decision can be made. Therefore, the number of further investigational stages is determined based upon data accumulated to the interim analysis. This design considers two plausible study endpoints, with one of them initially designated as the primary endpoint. Based on interim results, another endpoint can be switched as the primary endpoint. However, in many therapeutic areas, the primary study endpoint is well established. Therefore, we modify this design to consider one study endpoint only so that it may be more readily applicable in real clinical trial designs. Our simulations show that, the same as the original design, this modified design controls the Type I error rate, and the design parameters such as the threshold probability for the two-stage setting and the alpha allocation ratio in the two-stage setting versus the three-stage setting have a great impact on the design characteristics. However, this modified design requires a larger sample size for the initial stage, and the probability of futility becomes much higher when the threshold probability for the two-stage setting gets smaller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Applying quantitative bias analysis to estimate the plausible effects of selection bias in a cluster randomised controlled trial: secondary analysis of the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST).

PubMed

Barnett, L A; Lewis, M; Mallen, C D; Peat, G

2017-12-04

Selection bias is a concern when designing cluster randomised controlled trials (c-RCT). Despite addressing potential issues at the design stage, bias cannot always be eradicated from a trial design. The application of bias analysis presents an important step forward in evaluating whether trial findings are credible. The aim of this paper is to give an example of the technique to quantify potential selection bias in c-RCTs. This analysis uses data from the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST). The primary aim of this trial was to test whether screening for anxiety and depression, and providing appropriate care for patients consulting their GP with osteoarthritis would improve clinical outcomes. Quantitative bias analysis is a seldom-used technique that can quantify types of bias present in studies. Due to lack of information on the selection probability, probabilistic bias analysis with a range of triangular distributions was also used, applied at all three follow-up time points; 3, 6, and 12 months post consultation. A simple bias analysis was also applied to the study. Worse pain outcomes were observed among intervention participants than control participants (crude odds ratio at 3, 6, and 12 months: 1.30 (95% CI 1.01, 1.67), 1.39 (1.07, 1.80), and 1.17 (95% CI 0.90, 1.53), respectively). Probabilistic bias analysis suggested that the observed effect became statistically non-significant if the selection probability ratio was between 1.2 and 1.4. Selection probability ratios of > 1.8 were needed to mask a statistically significant benefit of the intervention. The use of probabilistic bias analysis in this c-RCT suggested that worse outcomes observed in the intervention arm could plausibly be attributed to selection bias. A very large degree of selection of bias was needed to mask a beneficial effect of intervention making this interpretation less plausible.

Cost Effectiveness of Support for People Starting a New Medication for a Long-Term Condition Through Community Pharmacies: An Economic Evaluation of the New Medicine Service (NMS) Compared with Normal Practice.

PubMed

Elliott, Rachel A; Tanajewski, Lukasz; Gkountouras, Georgios; Avery, Anthony J; Barber, Nick; Mehta, Rajnikant; Boyd, Matthew J; Latif, Asam; Chuter, Antony; Waring, Justin

2017-12-01

The English community pharmacy New Medicine Service (NMS) significantly increases patient adherence to medicines, compared with normal practice. We examined the cost effectiveness of NMS compared with normal practice by combining adherence improvement and intervention costs with the effect of increased adherence on patient outcomes and healthcare costs. We developed Markov models for diseases targeted by the NMS (hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and antiplatelet regimens) to assess the impact of patients' non-adherence. Clinical event probability, treatment pathway, resource use and costs were extracted from literature and costing tariffs. Incremental costs and outcomes associated with each disease were incorporated additively into a composite probabilistic model and combined with adherence rates and intervention costs from the trial. Costs per extra quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) were calculated from the perspective of NHS England, using a lifetime horizon. NMS generated a mean of 0.05 (95% CI 0.00-0.13) more QALYs per patient, at a mean reduced cost of -£144 (95% CI -769 to 73). The NMS dominates normal practice with a probability of 0.78 [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) -£3166 per QALY]. NMS has a 96.7% probability of cost effectiveness compared with normal practice at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that targeting each disease with NMS has a probability over 0.90 of cost effectiveness compared with normal practice at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY. Our study suggests that the NMS increased patient medicine adherence compared with normal practice, which translated into increased health gain at reduced overall cost. ClinicalTrials.gov Trial reference number NCT01635361 ( http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01635361 ). Current Controlled trials: Trial reference number ISRCTN 23560818 ( http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN23560818/ ; DOI 10.1186/ISRCTN23560818 ). UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) study 12494 ( http://public.ukcrn.org.uk/Search/StudyDetail.aspx?StudyID=12494 ). Department of Health Policy Research Programme.

Predicting clinical trial results based on announcements of interim analyses

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Announcements of interim analyses of a clinical trial convey information about the results beyond the trial’s Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). The amount of information conveyed may be minimal, but the fact that none of the trial’s stopping boundaries has been crossed implies that the experimental therapy is neither extremely effective nor hopeless. Predicting success of the ongoing trial is of interest to the trial’s sponsor, the medical community, pharmaceutical companies, and investors. We determine the probability of trial success by quantifying only the publicly available information from interim analyses of an ongoing trial. We illustrate our method in the context of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) trial, C-08. Methods We simulated trials based on the specifics of the NSABP C-08 protocol that were publicly available. We quantified the uncertainty around the treatment effect using prior weights for the various possibilities in light of other colon cancer studies and other studies of the investigational agent, bevacizumab. We considered alternative prior distributions. Results Subsequent to the trial’s third interim analysis, our predictive probabilities were: that the trial would eventually be successful, 48.0%; would stop for futility, 7.4%; and would continue to completion without statistical significance, 44.5%. The actual trial continued to completion without statistical significance. Conclusions Announcements of interim analyses provide information outside the DSMB’s sphere of confidentiality. This information is potentially helpful to clinical trial prognosticators. ‘Information leakage’ from standard interim analyses such as in NSABP C-08 is conventionally viewed as acceptable even though it may be quite revealing. Whether leakage from more aggressive types of adaptations is acceptable should be assessed at the design stage. PMID:24607270

A utility-based design for randomized comparative trials with ordinal outcomes and prognostic subgroups.

PubMed

Murray, Thomas A; Yuan, Ying; Thall, Peter F; Elizondo, Joan H; Hofstetter, Wayne L

2018-01-22

A design is proposed for randomized comparative trials with ordinal outcomes and prognostic subgroups. The design accounts for patient heterogeneity by allowing possibly different comparative conclusions within subgroups. The comparative testing criterion is based on utilities for the levels of the ordinal outcome and a Bayesian probability model. Designs based on two alternative models that include treatment-subgroup interactions are considered, the proportional odds model and a non-proportional odds model with a hierarchical prior that shrinks toward the proportional odds model. A third design that assumes homogeneity and ignores possible treatment-subgroup interactions also is considered. The three approaches are applied to construct group sequential designs for a trial of nutritional prehabilitation versus standard of care for esophageal cancer patients undergoing chemoradiation and surgery, including both untreated patients and salvage patients whose disease has recurred following previous therapy. A simulation study is presented that compares the three designs, including evaluation of within-subgroup type I and II error probabilities under a variety of scenarios including different combinations of treatment-subgroup interactions. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Measuring attention using the Posner cuing paradigm: the role of across and within trial target probabilities

PubMed Central

Hayward, Dana A.; Ristic, Jelena

2013-01-01

Numerous studies conducted within the recent decades have utilized the Posner cuing paradigm for eliciting, measuring, and theoretically characterizing attentional orienting. However, the data from recent studies suggest that the Posner cuing task might not provide an unambiguous measure of attention, as reflexive spatial orienting has been found to interact with extraneous processes engaged by the task's typical structure, i.e., the probability of target presence across trials, which affects tonic alertness, and the probability of target presence within trials, which affects voluntary temporal preparation. To understand the contribution of each of these two processes to the measurement of attentional orienting we assessed their individual and combined effects on reflexive attention elicited by a spatially nonpredictive peripheral cue. Our results revealed that the magnitude of spatial orienting was modulated by joint changes in the global probability of target presence across trials and the local probability of target presence within trials, while the time course of spatial orienting was susceptible to changes in the probability of target presence across trials. These data thus raise important questions about the choice of task parameters within the Posner cuing paradigm and their role in both the measurement and theoretical attributions of the observed attentional effects. PMID:23730280

Speed and Deceleration Trials of U.S.S. Los Angeles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De France, S J; Burgess, C P

1930-01-01

The trials reported in this report were instigated by the Bureau of Aeronautics of the Navy Department for the purpose of determining accurately the speed and resistance of the U. S. S. "Los Angeles" with and without water recovery apparatus, and to clear up the apparent discrepancies between the speed attained in service and in the original trials in Germany. The trials proved very conclusively that the water recovery apparatus increases the resistance about 20 per cent, which is serious, and shows the importance of developing a type of recovery having less resistance. Between the American and the German speed trials without water recovery there remains an unexplained discrepancy of nearly 6 per cent in speed at a given rate of engine revolutions. Warping of the propeller blades and small cumulative errors of observation seem the most probable causes of the discrepancy. It was found that the customary resistance coefficients C, are 0.0242 and 0.0293 without and with the water recovery apparatus, respectively. The corresponding values of the propulsive coefficient K, are 56.7 and 44.6. If there is an error in these figures, it is probably in a slight overestimate of C, and an underestimate of K. The maximum errors are almost certainly less than 5 per cent. No scale effect was detected indicating variation of C with respect to velocity (author)

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

A comparison of two worlds: How does Bayes hold up to the status quo for the analysis of clinical trials?

PubMed

Pressman, Alice R; Avins, Andrew L; Hubbard, Alan; Satariano, William A

2011-07-01

There is a paucity of literature comparing Bayesian analytic techniques with traditional approaches for analyzing clinical trials using real trial data. We compared Bayesian and frequentist group sequential methods using data from two published clinical trials. We chose two widely accepted frequentist rules, O'Brien-Fleming and Lan-DeMets, and conjugate Bayesian priors. Using the nonparametric bootstrap, we estimated a sampling distribution of stopping times for each method. Because current practice dictates the preservation of an experiment-wise false positive rate (Type I error), we approximated these error rates for our Bayesian and frequentist analyses with the posterior probability of detecting an effect in a simulated null sample. Thus for the data-generated distribution represented by these trials, we were able to compare the relative performance of these techniques. No final outcomes differed from those of the original trials. However, the timing of trial termination differed substantially by method and varied by trial. For one trial, group sequential designs of either type dictated early stopping of the study. In the other, stopping times were dependent upon the choice of spending function and prior distribution. Results indicate that trialists ought to consider Bayesian methods in addition to traditional approaches for analysis of clinical trials. Though findings from this small sample did not demonstrate either method to consistently outperform the other, they did suggest the need to replicate these comparisons using data from varied clinical trials in order to determine the conditions under which the different methods would be most efficient. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of two worlds: How does Bayes hold up to the status quo for the analysis of clinical trials?

PubMed Central

Pressman, Alice R.; Avins, Andrew L.; Hubbard, Alan; Satariano, William A.

2014-01-01

Background There is a paucity of literature comparing Bayesian analytic techniques with traditional approaches for analyzing clinical trials using real trial data. Methods We compared Bayesian and frequentist group sequential methods using data from two published clinical trials. We chose two widely accepted frequentist rules, O'Brien–Fleming and Lan–DeMets, and conjugate Bayesian priors. Using the nonparametric bootstrap, we estimated a sampling distribution of stopping times for each method. Because current practice dictates the preservation of an experiment-wise false positive rate (Type I error), we approximated these error rates for our Bayesian and frequentist analyses with the posterior probability of detecting an effect in a simulated null sample. Thus for the data-generated distribution represented by these trials, we were able to compare the relative performance of these techniques. Results No final outcomes differed from those of the original trials. However, the timing of trial termination differed substantially by method and varied by trial. For one trial, group sequential designs of either type dictated early stopping of the study. In the other, stopping times were dependent upon the choice of spending function and prior distribution. Conclusions Results indicate that trialists ought to consider Bayesian methods in addition to traditional approaches for analysis of clinical trials. Though findings from this small sample did not demonstrate either method to consistently outperform the other, they did suggest the need to replicate these comparisons using data from varied clinical trials in order to determine the conditions under which the different methods would be most efficient. PMID:21453792

Optimized probability sampling of study sites to improve generalizability in a multisite intervention trial.

PubMed

Kraschnewski, Jennifer L; Keyserling, Thomas C; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Gizlice, Ziya; Garcia, Beverly A; Johnston, Larry F; Gustafson, Alison; Petrovic, Lindsay; Glasgow, Russell E; Samuel-Hodge, Carmen D

2010-01-01

Studies of type 2 translation, the adaption of evidence-based interventions to real-world settings, should include representative study sites and staff to improve external validity. Sites for such studies are, however, often selected by convenience sampling, which limits generalizability. We used an optimized probability sampling protocol to select an unbiased, representative sample of study sites to prepare for a randomized trial of a weight loss intervention. We invited North Carolina health departments within 200 miles of the research center to participate (N = 81). Of the 43 health departments that were eligible, 30 were interested in participating. To select a representative and feasible sample of 6 health departments that met inclusion criteria, we generated all combinations of 6 from the 30 health departments that were eligible and interested. From the subset of combinations that met inclusion criteria, we selected 1 at random. Of 593,775 possible combinations of 6 counties, 15,177 (3%) met inclusion criteria. Sites in the selected subset were similar to all eligible sites in terms of health department characteristics and county demographics. Optimized probability sampling improved generalizability by ensuring an unbiased and representative sample of study sites.

Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

Treesearch

Paul G. Scowcroft

1970-01-01

Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For...

The probability of reinforcement per trial affects posttrial responding and subsequent extinction but not within-trial responding.

PubMed

Harris, Justin A; Kwok, Dorothy W S

2018-01-01

During magazine approach conditioning, rats do not discriminate between a conditional stimulus (CS) that is consistently reinforced with food and a CS that is occasionally (partially) reinforced, as long as the CSs have the same overall reinforcement rate per second. This implies that rats are indifferent to the probability of reinforcement per trial. However, in the same rats, the per-trial reinforcement rate will affect subsequent extinction-responding extinguishes more rapidly for a CS that was consistently reinforced than for a partially reinforced CS. Here, we trained rats with consistently and partially reinforced CSs that were matched for overall reinforcement rate per second. We measured conditioned responding both during and immediately after the CSs. Differences in the per-trial probability of reinforcement did not affect the acquisition of responding during the CS but did affect subsequent extinction of that responding, and also affected the post-CS response rates during conditioning. Indeed, CSs with the same probability of reinforcement per trial evoked the same amount of post-CS responding even when they differed in overall reinforcement rate and thus evoked different amounts of responding during the CS. We conclude that reinforcement rate per second controls rats' acquisition of responding during the CS, but at the same time, rats also learn specifically about the probability of reinforcement per trial. The latter learning affects the rats' expectation of reinforcement as an outcome of the trial, which influences their ability to detect retrospectively that an opportunity for reinforcement was missed, and, in turn, drives extinction. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Automated telephone communication systems for preventive healthcare and management of long-term conditions.

PubMed

Posadzki, Pawel; Mastellos, Nikolaos; Ryan, Rebecca; Gunn, Laura H; Felix, Lambert M; Pappas, Yannis; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Julious, Steven A; Xiang, Liming; Oldenburg, Brian; Car, Josip

2016-12-14

Automated telephone communication systems (ATCS) can deliver voice messages and collect health-related information from patients using either their telephone's touch-tone keypad or voice recognition software. ATCS can supplement or replace telephone contact between health professionals and patients. There are four different types of ATCS: unidirectional (one-way, non-interactive voice communication), interactive voice response (IVR) systems, ATCS with additional functions such as access to an expert to request advice (ATCS Plus) and multimodal ATCS, where the calls are delivered as part of a multicomponent intervention. To assess the effects of ATCS for preventing disease and managing long-term conditions on behavioural change, clinical, process, cognitive, patient-centred and adverse outcomes. We searched 10 electronic databases (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; PsycINFO; CINAHL; Global Health; WHOLIS; LILACS; Web of Science; and ASSIA); three grey literature sources (Dissertation Abstracts, Index to Theses, Australasian Digital Theses); and two trial registries (www.controlled-trials.com; www.clinicaltrials.gov) for papers published between 1980 and June 2015. Randomised, cluster- and quasi-randomised trials, interrupted time series and controlled before-and-after studies comparing ATCS interventions, with any control or another ATCS type were eligible for inclusion. Studies in all settings, for all consumers/carers, in any preventive healthcare or long term condition management role were eligible. We used standard Cochrane methods to select and extract data and to appraise eligible studies. We included 132 trials (N = 4,669,689). Studies spanned across several clinical areas, assessing many comparisons based on evaluation of different ATCS types and variable comparison groups. Forty-one studies evaluated ATCS for delivering preventive healthcare, 84 for managing long-term conditions, and seven studies for appointment reminders. We downgraded our certainty in the evidence primarily because of the risk of bias for many outcomes. We judged the risk of bias arising from allocation processes to be low for just over half the studies and unclear for the remainder. We considered most studies to be at unclear risk of performance or detection bias due to blinding, while only 16% of studies were at low risk. We generally judged the risk of bias due to missing data and selective outcome reporting to be unclear.For preventive healthcare, ATCS (ATCS Plus, IVR, unidirectional) probably increase immunisation uptake in children (risk ratio (RR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18 to 1.32; 5 studies, N = 10,454; moderate certainty) and to a lesser extent in adolescents (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11; 2 studies, N = 5725; moderate certainty). The effects of ATCS in adults are unclear (RR 2.18, 95% CI 0.53 to 9.02; 2 studies, N = 1743; very low certainty).For screening, multimodal ATCS increase uptake of screening for breast cancer (RR 2.17, 95% CI 1.55 to 3.04; 2 studies, N = 462; high certainty) and colorectal cancer (CRC) (RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.88 to 2.55; 3 studies, N = 1013; high certainty) versus usual care. It may also increase osteoporosis screening. ATCS Plus interventions probably slightly increase cervical cancer screening (moderate certainty), but effects on osteoporosis screening are uncertain. IVR systems probably increase CRC screening at 6 months (RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.48; 2 studies, N = 16,915; moderate certainty) but not at 9 to 12 months, with probably little or no effect of IVR (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.99, 1.11; 2 studies, 2599 participants; moderate certainty) or unidirectional ATCS on breast cancer screening.Appointment reminders delivered through IVR or unidirectional ATCS may improve attendance rates compared with no calls (low certainty). For long-term management, medication or laboratory test adherence provided the most general evidence across conditions (25 studies, data not combined). Multimodal ATCS versus usual care showed conflicting effects (positive and uncertain) on medication adherence. ATCS Plus probably slightly (versus control; moderate certainty) or probably (versus usual care; moderate certainty) improves medication adherence but may have little effect on adherence to tests (versus control). IVR probably slightly improves medication adherence versus control (moderate certainty). Compared with usual care, IVR probably improves test adherence and slightly increases medication adherence up to six months but has little or no effect at longer time points (moderate certainty). Unidirectional ATCS, compared with control, may have little effect or slightly improve medication adherence (low certainty). The evidence suggested little or no consistent effect of any ATCS type on clinical outcomes (blood pressure control, blood lipids, asthma control, therapeutic coverage) related to adherence, but only a small number of studies contributed clinical outcome data.The above results focus on areas with the most general findings across conditions. In condition-specific areas, the effects of ATCS varied, including by the type of ATCS intervention in use.Multimodal ATCS probably decrease both cancer pain and chronic pain as well as depression (moderate certainty), but other ATCS types were less effective. Depending on the type of intervention, ATCS may have small effects on outcomes for physical activity, weight management, alcohol consumption, and diabetes mellitus. ATCS have little or no effect on outcomes related to heart failure, hypertension, mental health or smoking cessation, and there is insufficient evidence to determine their effects for preventing alcohol/substance misuse or managing illicit drug addiction, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, HIV/AIDS, hypercholesterolaemia, obstructive sleep apnoea, spinal cord dysfunction or psychological stress in carers.Only four trials (3%) reported adverse events, and it was unclear whether these were related to the interventions. ATCS interventions can change patients' health behaviours, improve clinical outcomes and increase healthcare uptake with positive effects in several important areas including immunisation, screening, appointment attendance, and adherence to medications or tests. The decision to integrate ATCS interventions in routine healthcare delivery should reflect variations in the certainty of the evidence available and the size of effects across different conditions, together with the varied nature of ATCS interventions assessed. Future research should investigate both the content of ATCS interventions and the mode of delivery; users' experiences, particularly with regard to acceptability; and clarify which ATCS types are most effective and cost-effective.

Differential reinforcement and resistance to change of divided-attention performance.

PubMed

Podlesnik, Christopher A; Thrailkill, Eric; Shahan, Timothy A

2012-06-01

Behavioral momentum theory provides a framework for understanding how conditions of reinforcement influence instrumental response strength under conditions of disruption (i.e., resistance to change). The present experiment examined resistance to change of divided-attention performance when different overall probabilities of reinforcement were arranged across two components of a multiple schedule. Pigeons responded in a delayed-matching-to-sample procedure with compound samples (color + line orientation) and element comparisons (two colors or two line orientations). Reinforcement ratios of 1:9, 1:1, and 9:1 for accurate matches on the two types of comparison trials were examined across conditions using reinforcement probabilities (color/lines) of .9/.1, .5/.5, and .1/.9 in the rich component and .18/.02, .1/.1, and .02/.18 in the lean component. Relative accuracy with color and line comparisons was an orderly function of relative reinforcement, but this relation did not depend on the overall rate of reinforcement between components. The resistance to change of divided-attention performance was greater for both trial types in the rich component with presession feeding and extinction, but not with decreases in sample duration. These findings suggest promise for the applicability of quantitative models of operant behavior to divided-attention performance, but they highlight the need to further explore conditions impacting the resistance to change of attending.

Differential reinforcement and resistance to change of divided-attention performance

PubMed Central

Thrailkill, Eric

2016-01-01

Behavioral momentum theory provides a framework for understanding how conditions of reinforcement influence instrumental response strength under conditions of disruption (i.e., resistance to change). The present experiment examined resistance to change of divided-attention performance when different overall probabilities of reinforcement were arranged across two components of a multiple schedule. Pigeons responded in a delayed-matching-to-sample procedure with compound samples (color + line orientation) and element comparisons (two colors or two line orientations). Reinforcement ratios of 1:9, 1:1, and 9:1 for accurate matches on the two types of comparison trials were examined across conditions using reinforcement probabilities (color/lines) of .9/.1, .5/.5, and .1/.9 in the rich component and .18/.02, .1/.1, and .02/.18 in the lean component. Relative accuracy with color and line comparisons was an orderly function of relative reinforcement, but this relation did not depend on the overall rate of reinforcement between components. The resistance to change of divided-attention performance was greater for both trial types in the rich component with presession feeding and extinction, but not with decreases in sample duration. These findings suggest promise for the applicability of quantitative models of operant behavior to divided-attention performance, but they highlight the need to further explore conditions impacting the resistance to change of attending. PMID:22038737

Dose-finding designs for trials of molecularly targeted agents and immunotherapies

PubMed Central

Chiuzan, Cody; Shtaynberger, Jonathan; Manji, Gulam A.; Duong, Jimmy K.; Schwartz, Gary K.; Ivanova, Anastasia; Lee, Shing M.

2017-01-01

Recently, there has been a surge of early phase trials of molecularly targeted agents (MTAs) and immunotherapies. These new therapies have different toxicity profiles compared to cytotoxic therapies. MTAs can benefit from new trial designs that allow inclusion of low-grade toxicities, late-onset toxicities, addition of an efficacy endpoint, and flexibility in the specification of a target toxicity probability. To study the degree of adoption of these methods, we conducted a Web of Science search of articles published between 2008 and 2014 that describe phase 1 oncology trials. Trials were categorized based on the dose-finding design used and the type of drug studied. Out of 1,712 dose-finding trials that met our criteria, 1,591 (92.9%) utilized a rule-based design, and 92 (5.4%; range 2.3% in 2009 to 9.7% in 2014) utilized a model-based or novel design. Over half of the trials tested an MTA or immunotherapy. Among the MTA and immunotherapy trials, 5.8% used model-based methods, compared to 3.9% and 8.3% of the chemotherapy or radiotherapy trials, respectively. While the percentage of trials using novel dose-finding designs has tripled since 2007, only 7.1% of trials use novel designs. PMID:28166468

A predictive Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of bridging studies.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Jin, Tian; Zhang, Li Xin; Wang, William W B

2012-09-01

Pharmaceutical product development culminates in confirmatory trials whose evidence for the product's efficacy and safety supports regulatory approval for marketing. Regulatory agencies in countries whose patients were not included in the confirmatory trials often require confirmation of efficacy and safety in their patient populations, which may be accomplished by carrying out bridging studies to establish consistency for local patients of the effects demonstrated by the original trials. This article describes and illustrates an approach for designing and analyzing bridging studies that fully incorporates the information provided by the original trials. The approach determines probability contours or regions of joint predictive intervals for treatment effect and response variability, or endpoints of treatment effect confidence intervals, that are functions of the findings from the original trials, the sample sizes for the bridging studies, and possible deviations from complete consistency with the original trials. The bridging studies are judged consistent with the original trials if their findings fall within the probability contours or regions. Regulatory considerations determine the region definitions and appropriate probability levels. Producer and consumer risks provide a way to assess alternative region and probability choices. [Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the Publisher's online edition of the Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix 2: R code for Calculations.].

Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters.

PubMed

Wong, Chi Heem; Siah, Kien Wei; Lo, Andrew W

2018-01-31

Previous estimates of drug development success rates rely on relatively small samples from databases curated by the pharmaceutical industry and are subject to potential selection biases. Using a sample of 406 038 entries of clinical trial data for over 21 143 compounds from January 1, 2000 to October 31, 2015, we estimate aggregate clinical trial success rates and durations. We also compute disaggregated estimates across several trial features including disease type, clinical phase, industry or academic sponsor, biomarker presence, lead indication status, and time. In several cases, our results differ significantly in detail from widely cited statistics. For example, oncology has a 3.4% success rate in our sample vs. 5.1% in prior studies. However, after declining to 1.7% in 2012, this rate has improved to 2.5% and 8.3% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. In addition, trials that use biomarkers in patient-selection have higher overall success probabilities than trials without biomarkers. © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

PubMed

Gran, Jon Michael; Røysland, Kjetil; Wolbers, Marcel; Didelez, Vanessa; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Ledergerber, Bruno; Furrer, Hansjakob; von Wyl, Viktor; Aalen, Odd O

2010-11-20

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Site-specific human papillomavirus infection in adolescent men who have sex with men (HYPER): an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Zou, Huachun; Tabrizi, Sepehr N; Grulich, Andrew E; Hocking, Jane S; Bradshaw, Catriona S; Cornall, Alyssa M; Morrow, Andrea; Prestage, Garrett; Law, Matthew G; Garland, Suzanne M; Chen, Marcus Y; Fairley, Christopher K

2015-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) have an increased risk of anogenital human papilomavirus (HPV) infection, which can lead to HPV-related anogenital lesions such as warts, anal intraepithelial neoplasia, and anal cancer. Some of these HPV types are preventable with vaccines. We aimed to describe the incidence of anal, penile, and oral HPV infection, and to estimate the site-specific transmission probability per partner, for teenage MSM. In our observational cohort study, we enrolled teenage MSM (aged 16-20 years) with low sexual exposure and a low prevalence of HPV in Melbourne (VIC, Australia). At baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months, we took a swab from the anal canal, and participants self-collected a swab from the penis and an oral rinse. Our primary outcome was definite and probable incident HPV infection of the anus, penis, or mouth at any time in the 12 months from baseline, assessed through the presence of HPV DNA. We defined definite incident HPV infection as the same HPV type detected more than once from the same site in men who had a negative HPV test at baseline. We defined probable incident HPV infection as only one positive test. We estimated the probability of HPV transmission per partner using HPV prevalence in MSM with a similar age to partners of men in our cohort. This study is registered at the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry and ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers ACTRN12611000857909 and NCT01422356. We enrolled 200 MSM aged 16-20 years (median 19 years [IRQ 18-20; range 16-20]) between Sept 20, 2010, and Aug 24, 2012. Over the 12 month follow-up period, we detected 48 definite (107 possible) HPV infections in the anus, ten definite (34 possible) HPV infections on the penis, and no definite (six possible) infections in the mouth. Definite incidence rate per 100 person-years for any anal HPV infection was 57 (95% CI 46-68), and for any anal HPV type in the quadrivalent vaccine was 33 (23-44). Definite incidence rate per 100 person-years for any penile HPV was 12 (6-21) and for any HPV type in the quadrivalent vaccine was 5 (1-12). Estimated probabilities of HPV transmission from the penis to the anus were significantly higher than were those from the anus to the penis (p<0·05 for all HPV types in the quadrivalent vaccine). High incidence rates suggest that the vaccination coverage in MSM will need to be high. The transmission estimates will inform HPV modelling. Merck. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of autoshaping in cooperative two-player games between starlings.

PubMed

Reboreda, J C; Kacelnik, A

1993-07-01

We report a study of the behavior of starlings in laboratory situations inspired by the "prisoner's dilemma." Our purpose is to investigate some possible mechanisms for the maintenance of cooperation by reciprocity and to investigate the process of autoshaping at a trial-by-trial level. In Experiment 1, pairs of starlings housed in adjacent cages played a discrete-trial "game" in which food could be obtained only by "cooperation." In this game, pecking at a response key eliminated the opportunity to obtain food but produced food for the partner. If neither bird pecked, neither had the opportunity to obtain food in that trial. Some level of cooperation persisted for several sessions whether the birds had been pretrained for a high or low probability of pecking at the key. The probability of a cooperative response was higher after trials in which the partner responded (and a reward was obtained) than after trials in which neither bird responded (and no reward was obtained), but the probability of a response was even higher after trials in which the same bird had responded, even though no reward was obtained by the actor in these trials. This behavior did not require visual presence of another player, because similar results were obtained in Experiment 2 (a replicate of Experiment 1 in which the members of the pair could not see each other) and in Experiment 3, a game in which each starling played with a computer responding with "tit for tat." Using an omission schedule, in which food was given in all trials in which the bird did not peck, Experiment 4 showed that pecking could be maintained by autoshaping. In this experiment, overall probability of pecking decreased with experience, due to a drop in the tendency to peck in consecutive trials. The probability of pecking in trials following a reinforced trial did not decrease with experience. An implementation of the Rescorla-Wagner model for this situation was capable of reproducing molar, but not molecular, aspects of our results. The results violate the predictions of several game-theoretical models for the evolution of cooperation, including tit for tat, generous tit for tat, and the superior win-stay-lose-shift.

Immunomodulatory Nature and Site Specific Affinity of Mesenchymal Stem Cells: a Hope in Cell Therapy

PubMed Central

Lotfinegad, Parisa; Shamsasenjan, karim; Movassaghpour, Aliakbar; Majidi, Jafar; Baradaran, Behzad

2014-01-01

Immunosuppressive ability of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), their differentiation properties to various specialized tissue types, ease of in vitro and in vivo expansion and specific migration capacity, make them to be tested in different clinical trials for the treatment of various diseases. The immunomodulatory effects of MSCs are less identified which probably has high clinically significance. The clinical trials based on primary research will cause better understanding the ability of MSCs in immunomodulatory applications and site specific migration in the optimization of therapy. So, this review focus on MSCs functional role in modulating immune responses, their ability in homing to tumor, their potency as delivery vehicle and their medical importance. PMID:24409403

Bayesian probability of success for clinical trials using historical data

PubMed Central

Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Lakshminarayanan, Mani; Liu, Guanghan F.; Heyse, Joseph F.

2015-01-01

Developing sophisticated statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is crucial for clinical trials, as planning phase III or phase IV trials is costly and time consuming. In this paper, we develop a novel Bayesian methodology for determining the probability of success of a treatment regimen on the basis of the current data of a given trial. We introduce a new criterion for calculating the probability of success that allows for inclusion of covariates as well as allowing for historical data based on the treatment regimen, and patient characteristics. A new class of prior distributions and covariate distributions is developed to achieve this goal. The methodology is quite general and can be used with univariate or multivariate continuous or discrete data, and it generalizes Chuang-Stein’s work. This methodology will be invaluable for informing the scientist on the likelihood of success of the compound, while including the information of covariates for patient characteristics in the trial population for planning future pre-market or post-market trials. PMID:25339499

Bayesian probability of success for clinical trials using historical data.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Joseph G; Chen, Ming-Hui; Lakshminarayanan, Mani; Liu, Guanghan F; Heyse, Joseph F

2015-01-30

Developing sophisticated statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is crucial for clinical trials, as planning phase III or phase IV trials is costly and time consuming. In this paper, we develop a novel Bayesian methodology for determining the probability of success of a treatment regimen on the basis of the current data of a given trial. We introduce a new criterion for calculating the probability of success that allows for inclusion of covariates as well as allowing for historical data based on the treatment regimen, and patient characteristics. A new class of prior distributions and covariate distributions is developed to achieve this goal. The methodology is quite general and can be used with univariate or multivariate continuous or discrete data, and it generalizes Chuang-Stein's work. This methodology will be invaluable for informing the scientist on the likelihood of success of the compound, while including the information of covariates for patient characteristics in the trial population for planning future pre-market or post-market trials. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

PubMed Central

Kaneko, Yoshiyuki; Sakai, Katsuyuki

2015-01-01

Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS) was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target. PMID:25999844

A quantum-like model of homeopathy clinical trials: importance of in situ randomization and unblinding.

PubMed

Beauvais, Francis

2013-04-01

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the 'gold standard' of modern clinical pharmacology. However, for many practitioners of homeopathy, blind RCTs are an inadequate research tool for testing complex therapies such as homeopathy. Classical probabilities used in biological sciences and in medicine are only a special case of the generalized theory of probability used in quantum physics. I describe homeopathy trials using a quantum-like statistical model, a model inspired by quantum physics and taking into consideration superposition of states, non-commuting observables, probability interferences, contextuality, etc. The negative effect of blinding on success of homeopathy trials and the 'smearing effect' ('specific' effects of homeopathy medicine occurring in the placebo group) are described by quantum-like probabilities without supplementary ad hoc hypotheses. The difference of positive outcome rates between placebo and homeopathy groups frequently vanish in centralized blind trials. The model proposed here suggests a way to circumvent such problems in masked homeopathy trials by incorporating in situ randomization/unblinding. In this quantum-like model of homeopathy clinical trials, success in open-label setting and failure with centralized blind RCTs emerge logically from the formalism. This model suggests that significant differences between placebo and homeopathy in blind RCTs would be found more frequently if in situ randomization/unblinding was used. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Power of Low Back Pain Trials: A Systematic Review of Power, Sample Size, and Reporting of Sample Size Calculations Over Time, in Trials Published Between 1980 and 2012.

PubMed

Froud, Robert; Rajendran, Dévan; Patel, Shilpa; Bright, Philip; Bjørkli, Tom; Eldridge, Sandra; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Underwood, Martin

2017-06-01

A systematic review of nonspecific low back pain trials published between 1980 and 2012. To explore what proportion of trials have been powered to detect different bands of effect size; whether there is evidence that sample size in low back pain trials has been increasing; what proportion of trial reports include a sample size calculation; and whether likelihood of reporting sample size calculations has increased. Clinical trials should have a sample size sufficient to detect a minimally important difference for a given power and type I error rate. An underpowered trial is one within which probability of type II error is too high. Meta-analyses do not mitigate underpowered trials. Reviewers independently abstracted data on sample size at point of analysis, whether a sample size calculation was reported, and year of publication. Descriptive analyses were used to explore ability to detect effect sizes, and regression analyses to explore the relationship between sample size, or reporting sample size calculations, and time. We included 383 trials. One-third were powered to detect a standardized mean difference of less than 0.5, and 5% were powered to detect less than 0.3. The average sample size was 153 people, which increased only slightly (∼4 people/yr) from 1980 to 2000, and declined slightly (∼4.5 people/yr) from 2005 to 2011 (P < 0.00005). Sample size calculations were reported in 41% of trials. The odds of reporting a sample size calculation (compared to not reporting one) increased until 2005 and then declined (Equation is included in full-text article.). Sample sizes in back pain trials and the reporting of sample size calculations may need to be increased. It may be justifiable to power a trial to detect only large effects in the case of novel interventions. 3.

The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance – a five-step procedure for evaluation of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore, assessment of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials deserves more rigour in order to become more valid. Methods Several methodologies for assessing the statistical and clinical significance of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials were considered. Balancing simplicity and comprehensiveness, a simple five-step procedure was developed. Results For a more valid assessment of results from a randomised clinical trial we propose the following five-steps: (1) report the confidence intervals and the exact P-values; (2) report Bayes factor for the primary outcome, being the ratio of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a ‘null’ effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance threshold if the trial is stopped early or if interim analyses have been conducted; (4) adjust the confidence intervals and the P-values for multiplicity due to number of outcome comparisons; and (5) assess clinical significance of the trial results. Conclusions If the proposed five-step procedure is followed, this may increase the validity of assessments of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials. PMID:24588900

Cell-based interventions to halt autoimmunity in type 1 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Barcala Tabarrozzi, A E; Castro, C N; Dewey, R A; Sogayar, M C; Labriola, L; Perone, M J

2013-01-01

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) results from death of insulin-secreting β cells mediated by self-immune cells, and the consequent inability of the body to maintain insulin levels for appropriate glucose homeostasis. Probably initiated by environmental factors, this disease takes place in genetically predisposed individuals. Given the autoimmune nature of T1DM, therapeutics targeting immune cells involved in disease progress have been explored over the last decade. Several high-cost trials have been attempted to prevent and/or reverse T1DM. Although a definitive solution to cure T1DM is not yet available, a large amount of information about its nature and development has contributed greatly to both the improvement of patient's health care and design of new treatments. In this study, we discuss the role of different types of immune cells involved in T1DM pathogenesis and their therapeutic potential as targets and/or modified tools to treat patients. Recently, encouraging results and new approaches to sustain remnant β cell mass and to increase β cell proliferation by different cell-based means have emerged. Results coming from ongoing clinical trials employing cell therapy designed to arrest T1DM will probably proliferate in the next few years. Strategies under consideration include infusion of several types of stem cells, dendritic cells and regulatory T cells, either manipulated genetically ex vivo or non-manipulated. Their use in combination approaches is another therapeutic alternative. Cell-based interventions, without undesirable side effects, directed to block the uncontrollable autoimmune response may become a clinical reality in the next few years for the treatment of patients with T1DM. PMID:23286940

Effects of delay and probability combinations on discounting in humans

PubMed Central

Cox, David J.; Dallery, Jesse

2017-01-01

To determine discount rates, researchers typically adjust the amount of an immediate or certain option relative to a delayed or uncertain option. Because this adjusting amount method can be relatively time consuming, researchers have developed more efficient procedures. One such procedure is a 5-trial adjusting delay procedure, which measures the delay at which an amount of money loses half of its value (e.g., $1000 is valued at $500 with a 10-year delay to its receipt). Experiment 1 (n = 212) used 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to measure delay discounting of losses, probabilistic gains, and probabilistic losses. Experiment 2 (n = 98) assessed combined probabilistic and delayed alternatives. In both experiments, we compared results from 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to traditional adjusting amount procedures. Results suggest both procedures produced similar rates of probability and delay discounting in six out of seven comparisons. A magnitude effect consistent with previous research was observed for probabilistic gains and losses, but not for delayed losses. Results also suggest that delay and probability interact to determine the value of money. Five-trial methods may allow researchers to assess discounting more efficiently as well as study more complex choice scenarios. PMID:27498073

Effects of reducing blood pressure on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes: Focus on SGLT2 inhibitors and EMPA-REG OUTCOME.

PubMed

Scheen, André J

2016-11-01

Empagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, has shown a remarkable reduction in cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and antecedents of cardiovascular disease in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial. This effect has been attributed to a hemodynamic rather than a metabolic effect, partly due to the osmotic/diuretic effect of empagliflozin and to the reduction in arterial blood pressure. The present review will: (1) summarize the results of specific studies having tested the blood pressure lowering effects of SGLT2 inhibitors; (2) describe the results of meta-analyses of trials having evaluated the effects on mortality and cardiovascular outcomes of lowering blood pressure in patients with T2D, with a special focus on baseline and target blood pressures; (3) compare the cardiovascular outcome results in EMPA-REG OUTCOME versus other major trials with antihypertensive agents in patients with T2D; and (4) evaluate post-hoc analyses from EMPA-REG OUTCOME, especially subgroups of patients of special interest regarding the blood pressure lowering hypothesis. Although BP reduction associated to empagliflozin therapy may partly contribute to the benefits reported in EMPA-REG OUTCOME, other mechanisms most probably play a greater role in the overall CV protection and reduction in mortality observed in this trial. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian pick-the-winner design in a randomized phase II clinical trial.

PubMed

Chen, Dung-Tsa; Huang, Po-Yu; Lin, Hui-Yi; Chiappori, Alberto A; Gabrilovich, Dmitry I; Haura, Eric B; Antonia, Scott J; Gray, Jhanelle E

2017-10-24

Many phase II clinical trials evaluate unique experimental drugs/combinations through multi-arm design to expedite the screening process (early termination of ineffective drugs) and to identify the most effective drug (pick the winner) to warrant a phase III trial. Various statistical approaches have been developed for the pick-the-winner design but have been criticized for lack of objective comparison among the drug agents. We developed a Bayesian pick-the-winner design by integrating a Bayesian posterior probability with Simon two-stage design in a randomized two-arm clinical trial. The Bayesian posterior probability, as the rule to pick the winner, is defined as probability of the response rate in one arm higher than in the other arm. The posterior probability aims to determine the winner when both arms pass the second stage of the Simon two-stage design. When both arms are competitive (i.e., both passing the second stage), the Bayesian posterior probability performs better to correctly identify the winner compared with the Fisher exact test in the simulation study. In comparison to a standard two-arm randomized design, the Bayesian pick-the-winner design has a higher power to determine a clear winner. In application to two studies, the approach is able to perform statistical comparison of two treatment arms and provides a winner probability (Bayesian posterior probability) to statistically justify the winning arm. We developed an integrated design that utilizes Bayesian posterior probability, Simon two-stage design, and randomization into a unique setting. It gives objective comparisons between the arms to determine the winner.

Sample size calculation for a proof of concept study.

PubMed

Yin, Yin

2002-05-01

Sample size calculation is vital for a confirmatory clinical trial since the regulatory agencies require the probability of making Type I error to be significantly small, usually less than 0.05 or 0.025. However, the importance of the sample size calculation for studies conducted by a pharmaceutical company for internal decision making, e.g., a proof of concept (PoC) study, has not received enough attention. This article introduces a Bayesian method that identifies the information required for planning a PoC and the process of sample size calculation. The results will be presented in terms of the relationships between the regulatory requirements, the probability of reaching the regulatory requirements, the goalpost for PoC, and the sample size used for PoC.

CP function: an alpha spending function based on conditional power.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhiwei; Wang, Ling; Li, Chanjuan; Xia, Jielai; Wang, William

2014-11-20

Alpha spending function and stochastic curtailment are two frequently used methods in group sequential design. In the stochastic curtailment approach, the actual type I error probability cannot be well controlled within the specified significance level. But conditional power (CP) in stochastic curtailment is easier to be accepted and understood by clinicians. In this paper, we develop a spending function based on the concept of conditional power, named CP function, which combines desirable features of alpha spending and stochastic curtailment. Like other two-parameter functions, CP function is flexible to fit the needs of the trial. A simulation study is conducted to explore the choice of CP boundary in CP function that maximizes the trial power. It is equivalent to, even better than, classical Pocock, O'Brien-Fleming, and quadratic spending function as long as a proper ρ0 is given, which is pre-specified CP threshold for efficacy. It also well controls the overall type I error type I error rate and overcomes the disadvantage of stochastic curtailment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

PubMed

Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

2018-04-17

In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ignorance is not bliss: Statistical power is not probability of trial success.

PubMed

Zierhut, M L; Bycott, P; Gibbs, M A; Smith, B P; Vicini, P

2016-04-01

The purpose of this commentary is to place probability of trial success, or assurance, in the context of decision making in drug development, and to illustrate its properties in an intuitive manner for the readers of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. The hope is that this will stimulate a dialog on how assurance should be incorporated into a quantitative decision approach for clinical development and trial design that uses all available information. © 2015 ASCPT.

Benchmarks for detecting 'breakthroughs' in clinical trials: empirical assessment of the probability of large treatment effects using kernel density estimation.

PubMed

Miladinovic, Branko; Kumar, Ambuj; Mhaskar, Rahul; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2014-10-21

To understand how often 'breakthroughs,' that is, treatments that significantly improve health outcomes, can be developed. We applied weighted adaptive kernel density estimation to construct the probability density function for observed treatment effects from five publicly funded cohorts and one privately funded group. 820 trials involving 1064 comparisons and enrolling 331,004 patients were conducted by five publicly funded cooperative groups. 40 cancer trials involving 50 comparisons and enrolling a total of 19,889 patients were conducted by GlaxoSmithKline. We calculated that the probability of detecting treatment with large effects is 10% (5-25%), and that the probability of detecting treatment with very large treatment effects is 2% (0.3-10%). Researchers themselves judged that they discovered a new, breakthrough intervention in 16% of trials. We propose these figures as the benchmarks against which future development of 'breakthrough' treatments should be measured. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Comparing Stent Thrombosis associated with Zotarolimus Eluting Stents versus Everolimus Eluting Stents at 1 year follow up: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 6 randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Bundhun, Pravesh Kumar; Yanamala, Chandra Mouli; Huang, Wei-Qiang

2017-03-16

Two thousand fifteen has been a winning year for Drug Eluting Stents (DES). Increase in the number of patients with cardiovascular diseases treated by Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) has resulted to a high demand for second generation DES. This current analysis aimed to compare the different types of Stent Thrombosis (ST) associated with Zotarolimus Eluting Stents (ZES) versus Everolimus Eluting Stents (EES) at 1 year follow up. Electronic databases were searched for studies comparing ZES with EES. Different types of ST reported at 1 year follow up were considered as the primary endpoints in this analysis. Odds Ratios (OR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) were used as the statistical parameters and the pooled analyses were carried out by the RevMan 5 · 3 software. A total number of 10,512 patients were included in this analysis. No significant difference in any definite ST, acute definite ST, subacute definite ST, and late definite ST were observed between ZES and EES, at 1 year follow up with OR: 1.70, 95% CI: 0.92 - 3.16; P = 0.09, OR: 3.44, 95% CI: 0.82 - 14.43; P = 0.09, OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 0.43 - 2.95; P = 0.80 and OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 0.83 - 6.85; P = 0.11 respectively. Moreover, any definite or probable ST and definite/probable/possible ST were also not significantly different with OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 0.89 - 2.17; P = 0.15 and OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.84 - 1.70; P = 0.33 respectively. In addition, any probable ST, acute probable ST, late probable ST and possible ST were also not significantly different at 1 year follow up with OR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.60 - 2.05; P = 0.75, OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.12 - 2.40; P = 0.41, OR: 1.67, 95% CI: 0.35 - 7.86; P = 0.52 and OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.64 - 1.82; P = 0.78 respectively. At 1 year follow up, ZES were not associated with significantly lower or higher definite and probable ST compared to EES. In addition, no significant difference was observed in acute, subacute and late definite or probable ST. However, further trials are recommended to assess the effects of these second-generation DES during the long-term.

Utility-based designs for randomized comparative trials with categorical outcomes

PubMed Central

Murray, Thomas A.; Thall, Peter F.; Yuan, Ying

2016-01-01

A general utility-based testing methodology for design and conduct of randomized comparative clinical trials with categorical outcomes is presented. Numerical utilities of all elementary events are elicited to quantify their desirabilities. These numerical values are used to map the categorical outcome probability vector of each treatment to a mean utility, which is used as a one-dimensional criterion for constructing comparative tests. Bayesian tests are presented, including fixed sample and group sequential procedures, assuming Dirichlet-multinomial models for the priors and likelihoods. Guidelines are provided for establishing priors, eliciting utilities, and specifying hypotheses. Efficient posterior computation is discussed, and algorithms are provided for jointly calibrating test cutoffs and sample size to control overall type I error and achieve specified power. Asymptotic approximations for the power curve are used to initialize the algorithms. The methodology is applied to re-design a completed trial that compared two chemotherapy regimens for chronic lymphocytic leukemia, in which an ordinal efficacy outcome was dichotomized and toxicity was ignored to construct the trial’s design. The Bayesian tests also are illustrated by several types of categorical outcomes arising in common clinical settings. Freely available computer software for implementation is provided. PMID:27189672

Development of a Two-Piece Mask and Lens and Mold for Same.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

Antioxidants in EPDM -6150C Heat - Ref. No. Antioxidant Composition of Antioxidant % gel aged Unaged QA0010-Q Control 98.16 1 3.5 -1 Agerite NA Polymeric...Uniroyal. With the exception of Royalene 100, which is an SPu, the types we examined are EPDM rubbers . Our trials with Royalene 100 were not successful...with aliphatic hydrocarbons is probably what explains the good compatibility of this resin with EPDM rubbers , one of our candidate polymers. Elvax resins

Effects of delay and probability combinations on discounting in humans.

PubMed

Cox, David J; Dallery, Jesse

2016-10-01

To determine discount rates, researchers typically adjust the amount of an immediate or certain option relative to a delayed or uncertain option. Because this adjusting amount method can be relatively time consuming, researchers have developed more efficient procedures. One such procedure is a 5-trial adjusting delay procedure, which measures the delay at which an amount of money loses half of its value (e.g., $1000 is valued at $500 with a 10-year delay to its receipt). Experiment 1 (n=212) used 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to measure delay discounting of losses, probabilistic gains, and probabilistic losses. Experiment 2 (n=98) assessed combined probabilistic and delayed alternatives. In both experiments, we compared results from 5-trial adjusting delay or probability tasks to traditional adjusting amount procedures. Results suggest both procedures produced similar rates of probability and delay discounting in six out of seven comparisons. A magnitude effect consistent with previous research was observed for probabilistic gains and losses, but not for delayed losses. Results also suggest that delay and probability interact to determine the value of money. Five-trial methods may allow researchers to assess discounting more efficiently as well as study more complex choice scenarios. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining risk in mineral exploration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Donald A.; Kouda, Ryoichi

1999-01-01

Successful mineral exploration strategy requires identification of some of the risk sources and considering them in the decision-making process so that controllable risk can be reduced. Risk is defined as chance of failure or loss. Exploration is an economic activity involving risk and uncertainty, so risk also must be defined in an economic context. Risk reduction can be addressed in three fundamental ways: (1) increasing the number of examinations; (2) increasing success probabilities; and (3) changing success probabilities per test by learning. These provide the framework for examining exploration risk. First, the number of prospects examined is increased, such as by joint venturing, thereby reducing chance of gambler's ruin. Second, success probability is increased by exploring for deposit types more likely to be economic, such as those with a high proportion of world-class deposits. For example, in looking for 100+ ton (>3 million oz) Au deposits, porphyry Cu-Au, or epithermal quartz alunite Au types require examining fewer deposits than Comstock epithermal vein and most other deposit types. For porphyry copper exploration, a strong positive relationship between area of sulfide minerals and deposits' contained Cu can be used to reduce exploration risk by only examining large sulfide systems. In some situations, success probabilities can be increased by examining certain geologic environments. Only 8% of kuroko massive sulfide deposits are world class, but success chances can be increased to about 15% by looking in settings containing sediments and rhyolitic rocks. It is possible to reduce risk of loss during mining by sequentially developing and expanding a mine—thus reducing capital exposed at early stages and reducing present value of risked capital. Because this strategy is easier to apply in some deposit types than in others, the strategy can affect deposit types sought. Third, risk is reduced by using prior information and by changing the independence of trials assumption, that is, by learning. Bayes' formula is used to change the probability of existence of the deposit sought on the basis of successive exploration stages. Perhaps the most important way to reduce exploration risk is to employ personnel with the appropriate experience and yet who are learning.

Sino-implant (II) - a levonorgestrel-releasing two-rod implant: systematic review of the randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus J.; Lopez, Laureen M.; Grimes, David A.; Cheng, Linan; Shelton, Jim; Trussell, James; Farley, Timothy M.M.; Dorflinger, Laneta

2013-01-01

Background Sino-implant (II) is a subdermal contraceptive implant manufactured in China. This two-rod levonorgestrel-releasing implant has the same amount of active ingredient (150 mg levonorgestrel) and mechanism of action as the widely available contraceptive implant Jadelle. We examined randomized controlled trials of Sino-implant (II) for effectiveness and side effects. Study design We searched electronic databases for studies of Sino-implant (II), and then restricted our review to randomized controlled trials. The primary outcome of this review was pregnancy. Results Four randomized trials with a total of 15,943 women assigned to Sino-implant (II) had first-year probabilities of pregnancy ranging from 0.0% to 0.1%. Cumulative probabilities of pregnancy during the four years of the product's approved duration of use were 0.9% and 1.06% in the two trials that presented date for four-year use. Five-year cumulative probabilities of pregnancy ranged from 0.7% to 2.1%. In one trial, the cumulative probability of pregnancy more than doubled during the fifth year (from 0.9% to 2.1%), which may be why the implant is approved for four years of use in China. Five-year cumulative probabilities of discontinuation due to menstrual problems ranged from 12.5% to 15.5% for Sino-implant (II). Conclusions Sino-implant (II) is one of the most effective contraceptives available today. These available clinical data, combined with independent laboratory testing, and the knowledge that 7 million women have used this method since 1994, support the safety and effectiveness of Sino-implant (II). The lower cost of Sino-implant (II) compared with other subdermal implants could improve access to implants in resource-constrained settings. PMID:20159174

Optimal flash rate and duty cycle for flashing visual indicators.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markowitz, J.

1971-01-01

This experiment examined the ability of observers to determine, as quickly as possible, whether a visual indicator was steadily on or flashing. Six flash rates (periods) were combined factorially with three duty cycles (on-off ratios) to define 18 ?types' of intermittent signals. Experimental sessions were divided into six runs of 100 trials, each run utilizing one of the six flash rates. On any given trial in a run, the probability of a steady signal occurring was 0.5 and the probability of a flashing signal occurring was 0.5. A different duty cycle was employed daily for each experimental session. In all, 400 trials were devoted to each of the flash rates at each duty cycle. Accuracy and latency of response were the dependent variables of interest. The results show that the observers view the light for an interval of time appropriate to the expected flash rate and duty cycle; whether they judge the light to be steady or intermittent depends upon whether the light is extinguished during the predetermined waiting period. Adoption of this temporal criterion delays responding in comparison to those tasks involving responses to light onset. The decision or response criteria held by the observers are also sensitive to the parameters of the flashing light: observers become increasingly willing to call a flashing light ?steady' as flash duration increases.

Ultrasound Monitoring of Extant Adnexal Masses in the Era of Type 1 and Type 2 Ovarian Cancers: Lessons Learned From Ovarian Cancer Screening Trials

PubMed Central

Ormsby, Eleanor L.; Pavlik, Edward J.; McGahan, John P.

2017-01-01

Women that are positive for an ovarian abnormality in a clinical setting can have either a malignancy or a benign tumor with probability favoring the benign alternative. Accelerating the abnormality to surgery will result in a high number of unnecessary procedures that will place cost burdens on the individual and the health delivery system. Surveillance using serial ultrasonography is a reasonable alternative that can be used to discover if changes in the ovarian abnormality will occur that favor either a malignant or benign interpretation. Several ovarian cancer screening trials have had extensive experiences with changes in subclinical ovarian abnormalities in normal women that can define growth, stability or resolution and give some idea of the time frame over which changes occur. The present report examines these experiences and relates them to the current understanding of ovarian cancer ontology, presenting arguments related to the benefits of surveillance. PMID:28452952

Motor Cortex-Evoked Activity in Reciprocal Muscles Is Modulated by Reward Probability

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Makoto; Kirimoto, Hikari; Sugawara, Kazuhiro; Oyama, Mineo; Yamada, Sumio; Yamamoto, Jun-ichi; Matsunaga, Atsuhiko; Fukuda, Michinari; Onishi, Hideaki

2014-01-01

Horizontal intracortical projections for agonist and antagonist muscles exist in the primary motor cortex (M1), and reward may induce a reinforcement of transmission efficiency of intracortical circuits. We investigated reward-induced change in M1 excitability for agonist and antagonist muscles. Participants were 8 healthy volunteers. Probabilistic reward tasks comprised 3 conditions of 30 trials each: 30 trials contained 10% reward, 30 trials contained 50% reward, and 30 trials contained 90% reward. Each trial began with a cue (red fixation cross), followed by blue circle for 1 s. The subjects were instructed to perform wrist flexion and press a button with the dorsal aspect of middle finger phalanx as quickly as possible in response to disappearance of the blue circle without looking at their hand or the button. Two seconds after the button press, reward/non-reward stimulus was randomly presented for 2-s duration. The reward stimulus was a picture of Japanese 10-yen coin, and each subject received monetary reward at the end of experiment. Subjects were not informed of the reward probabilities. We delivered transcranial magnetic stimulation of the left M1 at the midpoint between center of gravities of agonist flexor carpi radialis (FCR) and antagonist extensor carpi radialis (ECR) muscles at 2 s after the red fixation cross and 1 s after the reward/non-reward stimuli. Relative motor evoked potential (MEP) amplitudes at 2 s after the red fixation cross were significantly higher for 10% reward probability than for 90% reward probability, whereas relative MEP amplitudes at 1 s after reward/non-reward stimuli were significantly higher for 90% reward probability than for 10% and 50% reward probabilities. These results implied that reward could affect the horizontal intracortical projections in M1 for agonist and antagonist muscles, and M1 excitability including the reward-related circuit before and after reward stimulus could be differently altered by reward probability. PMID:24603644

Vaccines for preventing typhoid fever.

PubMed

Milligan, Rachael; Paul, Mical; Richardson, Marty; Neuberger, Ami

2018-05-31

Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever continue to be important causes of illness and death, particularly among children and adolescents in south-central and southeast Asia. Two typhoid vaccines are widely available, Ty21a (oral) and Vi polysaccharide (parenteral). Newer typhoid conjugate vaccines are at varying stages of development and use. The World Health Organization has recently recommended a Vi tetanus toxoid (Vi-TT) conjugate vaccine, Typbar-TCV, as the preferred vaccine for all ages. To assess the effects of vaccines for preventing typhoid fever. In February 2018, we searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and mRCT. We also searched the reference lists of all included trials. Randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing typhoid fever vaccines with other typhoid fever vaccines or with an inactive agent (placebo or vaccine for a different disease) in adults and children. Human challenge studies were not eligible. Two review authors independently applied inclusion criteria and extracted data, and assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We computed vaccine efficacy per year of follow-up and cumulative three-year efficacy, stratifying for vaccine type and dose. The outcome addressed was typhoid fever, defined as isolation of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi in blood. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) and efficacy (1 - RR as a percentage) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In total, 18 RCTs contributed to the quantitative analysis in this review: 13 evaluated efficacy (Ty21a: 5 trials; Vi polysaccharide: 6 trials; Vi-rEPA: 1 trial; Vi-TT: 1 trial), and 9 reported on adverse events. All trials but one took place in typhoid-endemic countries. There was no information on vaccination in adults aged over 55 years of age, pregnant women, or travellers. Only one trial included data on children under two years of age.Ty21a vaccine (oral vaccine, three doses)A three-dose schedule of Ty21a vaccine probably prevents around half of typhoid cases during the first three years after vaccination (cumulative efficacy 2.5 to 3 years: 50%, 95% CI 35% to 61%, 4 trials, 235,239 participants, moderate-certainty evidence). These data include patients aged 3 to 44 years.Compared with placebo, this vaccine probably does not cause more vomiting, diarrhoea, nausea or abdominal pain (2 trials, 2066 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), headache, or rash (1 trial, 1190 participants; moderate-certainty evidence); however, fever (2 trials, 2066 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) is probably more common following vaccination.Vi polysaccharide vaccine (injection, one dose)A single dose of Vi polysaccharide vaccine prevents around two-thirds of typhoid cases in the first year after vaccination (year 1: 69%, 95% CI 63% to 74%; 3 trials, 99,979 participants; high-certainty evidence). In year 2, trial results were more variable, with the vaccine probably preventing between 45% and 69% of typhoid cases (year 2: 59%, 95% CI 45% to 69%; 4 trials, 194,969 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). These data included participants aged 2 to 55 years of age.The three-year cumulative efficacy of the vaccine may be around 55% (95% CI 30% to 70%; 11,384 participants, 1 trial; low-certainty evidence). These data came from a single trial conducted in South Africa in the 1980s in participants aged 5 to 15 years.Compared with placebo, this vaccine probably did not increase the incidence of fever (3 trials, 132,261 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) or erythema (3 trials, 132,261 participants; low-certainty evidence); however, swelling (3 trials, 1767 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) and pain at the injection site (1 trial, 667 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) were more common in the vaccine group.Vi-rEPA vaccine (two doses)Administration of two doses of the Vi-rEPA vaccine probably prevents between 50% and 96% of typhoid cases during the first two years after vaccination (year 1: 94%, 95% CI 75% to 99%; year 2: 87%, 95% CI 56% to 96%, 1 trial, 12,008 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). These data came from a single trial with children two to five years of age conducted in Vietnam.Compared with placebo, both the first and the second dose of this vaccine increased the risk of fever (1 trial, 12,008 and 11,091 participants, low-certainty evidence) and the second dose increase the incidence of swelling at the injection site (one trial, 11,091 participants, moderate-certainty evidence).Vi-TT vaccine (two doses)We are uncertain of the efficacy of administration of two doses of Vi-TT (PedaTyph) in typhoid cases in children during the first year after vaccination (year 1: 94%, 95% CI -1% to 100%, 1 trial, 1625 participants; very low-certainty evidence). These data come from a single cluster-randomized trial in children aged six months to 12 years and conducted in India. For single dose Vi-TT (Typbar-TCV), we found no efficacy trials evaluating the vaccine with natural exposure.There were no reported serious adverse effects in RCTs of any of the vaccines studied. The licensed Ty21a and Vi polysaccharide vaccines are efficacious in adults and children older than two years in endemic countries. The Vi-rEPA vaccine is just as efficacious, although data is only available for children. The new Vi-TT vaccine (PedaTyph) requires further evaluation to determine if it provides protection against typhoid fever. At the time of writing, there were only efficacy data from a human challenge setting in adults on the Vi-TT vaccine (Tybar), which clearly justify the ongoing field trials to evaluate vaccine efficacy.

Adaptive Strategies for the Elderly in Inhibiting Irrelevant and Conflict No-Go Trials while Performing the Go/No-Go Task

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Shulan; Wu, Mengyao; Tang, Chien-Hui

2016-01-01

This study aimed to differentiate whether or not older adults are more prone to distraction or conflict, as induced by irrelevant and conflict no-go stimuli (irNOGO and cfNOGO), respectively. This study also aimed to determine whether or not older adults would devote more effort to withholding a no-go trial in the higher-control demand condition (20% no-go trials’ probability) as compared to the lower-control demand condition (50 and 80% no-go trials’ probability). A total of 96 individuals were recruited, and each of the three no-go trials’ probability conditions included 32 participants (16 younger adults and 16 older adults). Both behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) data were measured. The behavioral results showed that the older adults performed more poorly than the younger adults for the go trials, as reflected by slower reaction times (RTs) and higher numbers of omission errors in the go trials. In contrast, in the no-go trials, the older adults counter-intuitively exhibited similar behavioral performance (i.e., equivalent commission errors) as compared to the younger adults. The ERP data further showed that the older adults (but not the younger adults) exhibited larger P3 peak amplitudes for the irNOGO than cfNOGO trials. Yet, on the other hand, the older adults performed more poorly (i.e., had more commission errors) in the cfNOGO than irNOGO trials. These results seem to suggest that the older adults recruited more control processes in order to conquer the commitment of responses in the no-go trials, especially in the irNOGO trials. This age-related compensatory response of recruiting more control processes was specifically seen in the 20% no-go trial probability condition. This study therefore provides a deeper understanding into how older adults adopt strategies for performing the go/no-go task such as devoting more control processes to inhibiting the irNOGO trials compared to the cfNOGO trials in order to cope with their deficient inhibition ability. PMID:26779012

The Dynamics of Conditioning and Extinction

PubMed Central

Killeen, Peter R.; Sanabria, Federico; Dolgov, Igor

2009-01-01

Pigeons responded to intermittently reinforced classical conditioning trials with erratic bouts of responding to the CS. Responding depended on whether the prior trial contained a peck, food, or both. A linear-persistence/learning model moved animals into and out of a response state, and a Weibull distribution for number of within-trial responses governed in-state pecking. Variations of trial and inter-trial durations caused correlated changes in rate and probability of responding, and model parameters. A novel prediction—in the protracted absence of food, response rates can plateau above zero—was validated. The model predicted smooth acquisition functions when instantiated with the probability of food, but a more accurate jagged learning curve when instantiated with trial-to-trial records of reinforcement. The Skinnerian parameter was dominant only when food could be accelerated or delayed by pecking. These experiments provide a framework for trial-by-trial accounts of conditioning and extinction that increases the information available from the data, permitting them to comment more definitively on complex contemporary models of momentum and conditioning. PMID:19839699

Statistical considerations in evaluating pharmacogenomics-based clinical effect for confirmatory trials.

PubMed

Wang, Sue-Jane; O'Neill, Robert T; Hung, Hm James

2010-10-01

The current practice for seeking genomically favorable patients in randomized controlled clinical trials using genomic convenience samples. To discuss the extent of imbalance, confounding, bias, design efficiency loss, type I error, and type II error that can occur in the evaluation of the convenience samples, particularly when they are small samples. To articulate statistical considerations for a reasonable sample size to minimize the chance of imbalance, and, to highlight the importance of replicating the subgroup finding in independent studies. Four case examples reflecting recent regulatory experiences are used to underscore the problems with convenience samples. Probability of imbalance for a pre-specified subgroup is provided to elucidate sample size needed to minimize the chance of imbalance. We use an example drug development to highlight the level of scientific rigor needed, with evidence replicated for a pre-specified subgroup claim. The convenience samples evaluated ranged from 18% to 38% of the intent-to-treat samples with sample size ranging from 100 to 5000 patients per arm. The baseline imbalance can occur with probability higher than 25%. Mild to moderate multiple confounders yielding the same directional bias in favor of the treated group can make treatment group incomparable at baseline and result in a false positive conclusion that there is a treatment difference. Conversely, if the same directional bias favors the placebo group or there is loss in design efficiency, the type II error can increase substantially. Pre-specification of a genomic subgroup hypothesis is useful only for some degree of type I error control. Complete ascertainment of genomic samples in a randomized controlled trial should be the first step to explore if a favorable genomic patient subgroup suggests a treatment effect when there is no clear prior knowledge and understanding about how the mechanism of a drug target affects the clinical outcome of interest. When stratified randomization based on genomic biomarker status cannot be implemented in designing a pharmacogenomics confirmatory clinical trial, if there is one genomic biomarker prognostic for clinical response, as a general rule of thumb, a sample size of at least 100 patients may be needed to be considered for the lower prevalence genomic subgroup to minimize the chance of an imbalance of 20% or more difference in the prevalence of the genomic marker. The sample size may need to be at least 150, 350, and 1350, respectively, if an imbalance of 15%, 10% and 5% difference is of concern.

Evaluation of complementary and alternative medicine trials registered in clinicaltrials.gov database.

PubMed

Dizdar, Omer; Bilgin, Emre; Akin, Serkan; Kilickap, Saadettin; Hayran, Mutlu

2017-01-01

Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) products are increasingly used because they are perceived as natural, relatively low-cost and probably effective therapies for various diseases including cancer. We aimed to determine the quantity and major characteristics of recent herbal/alternative medicine trials registered in clinicaltrials. gov in patients with cancer. "Cancer AND (herbal OR complementary OR alternative)" key words were used to query clinicaltrials. gov (access date 17 April 2015). From the results, 163 trials which have been conducted in patients with the diagnosis of cancer were identified and included in this analysis. At the date of access, 72 trials were completed, 37 trials were still recruiting patients and 10 trials had been withdrawn. Most common cancer type was breast cancer. Eighty-eight percent of trials were interventional and 60% of trials were randomized. The rate of new trial submission were similar for 5-year periods after 2000. The majority of the trials were conducted in United States of America (55%) and People's Republic of China (11%). Nine and 4 of 37 recruiting trials were recorded as phase II and phase III, respectively. When browsing was restricted to "recruiting" and "interventional" studies, the ratio of herbal/complementary treatment trials to all chemotherapy trials was 1.8 %. CAM research in patients with cancer is currently limited, both in terms of quantity and quality. Until high quality scientific and clinical research establishes safety and efficacy of CAM practices, physicians should rigorously inform patients and the public on potential risks and caveats associated with CAM practices.

Gaussian Hypothesis Testing and Quantum Illumination.

PubMed

Wilde, Mark M; Tomamichel, Marco; Lloyd, Seth; Berta, Mario

2017-09-22

Quantum hypothesis testing is one of the most basic tasks in quantum information theory and has fundamental links with quantum communication and estimation theory. In this paper, we establish a formula that characterizes the decay rate of the minimal type-II error probability in a quantum hypothesis test of two Gaussian states given a fixed constraint on the type-I error probability. This formula is a direct function of the mean vectors and covariance matrices of the quantum Gaussian states in question. We give an application to quantum illumination, which is the task of determining whether there is a low-reflectivity object embedded in a target region with a bright thermal-noise bath. For the asymmetric-error setting, we find that a quantum illumination transmitter can achieve an error probability exponent stronger than a coherent-state transmitter of the same mean photon number, and furthermore, that it requires far fewer trials to do so. This occurs when the background thermal noise is either low or bright, which means that a quantum advantage is even easier to witness than in the symmetric-error setting because it occurs for a larger range of parameters. Going forward from here, we expect our formula to have applications in settings well beyond those considered in this paper, especially to quantum communication tasks involving quantum Gaussian channels.

A new trial design to accelerate tuberculosis drug development: the Phase IIC Selection Trial with Extended Post-treatment follow-up (STEP).

PubMed

Phillips, Patrick P J; Dooley, Kelly E; Gillespie, Stephen H; Heinrich, Norbert; Stout, Jason E; Nahid, Payam; Diacon, Andreas H; Aarnoutse, Rob E; Kibiki, Gibson S; Boeree, Martin J; Hoelscher, Michael

2016-03-23

The standard 6-month four-drug regimen for the treatment of drug-sensitive tuberculosis has remained unchanged for decades and is inadequate to control the epidemic. Shorter, simpler regimens are urgently needed to defeat what is now the world's greatest infectious disease killer. We describe the Phase IIC Selection Trial with Extended Post-treatment follow-up (STEP) as a novel hybrid phase II/III trial design to accelerate regimen development. In the Phase IIC STEP trial, the experimental regimen is given for the duration for which it will be studied in phase III (presently 3 or 4 months) and patients are followed for clinical outcomes of treatment failure and relapse for a total of 12 months from randomisation. Operating characteristics of the trial design are explored assuming a classical frequentist framework as well as a Bayesian framework with flat and sceptical priors. A simulation study is conducted using data from the RIFAQUIN phase III trial to illustrate how such a design could be used in practice. With 80 patients per arm, and two (2.5 %) unfavourable outcomes in the STEP trial, there is a probability of 0.99 that the proportion of unfavourable outcomes in a potential phase III trial would be less than 12 % and a probability of 0.91 that the proportion of unfavourable outcomes would be less than 8 %. With six (7.5 %) unfavourable outcomes, there is a probability of 0.82 that the proportion of unfavourable outcomes in a potential phase III trial would be less than 12 % and a probability of 0.41 that it would be less than 8 %. Simulations using data from the RIFAQUIN trial show that a STEP trial with 80 patients per arm would have correctly shown that the Inferior Regimen should not proceed to phase III and would have had a high chance (0.88) of either showing that the Successful Regimen could proceed to phase III or that it might require further optimisation. Collection of definitive clinical outcome data in a relatively small number of participants over only 12 months provides valuable information about the likelihood of success in a future phase III trial. We strongly believe that the STEP trial design described herein is an important tool that would allow for more informed decision-making and accelerate regimen development.

Development of a Bayesian response-adaptive trial design for the Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation study.

PubMed

Holm Hansen, Christian; Warner, Pamela; Parker, Richard A; Walker, Brian R; Critchley, Hilary Od; Weir, Christopher J

2017-12-01

It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. This article describes the preparatory simulation study for a Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding trial design. Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation aims to assess the efficacy of Dexamethasone in reducing excessive menstrual bleeding and to determine the best dose for further study. To maximise learning about the dose response, patients receive placebo or an active dose with randomisation probabilities adapting based on evidence from patients already recruited. The dose-response relationship is estimated using a flexible Bayesian Normal Dynamic Linear Model. Several competing design options were considered including: number of doses, proportion assigned to placebo, adaptation criterion, and number and timing of adaptations. We performed a fractional factorial study using SAS software to simulate virtual trial data for candidate adaptive designs under a variety of scenarios and to invoke WinBUGS for Bayesian model estimation. We analysed the simulated trial results using Normal linear models to estimate the effects of each design feature on empirical type I error and statistical power. Our readily-implemented approach using widely available statistical software identified a final design which performed robustly across a range of potential trial scenarios.

Low power and type II errors in recent ophthalmology research.

PubMed

Khan, Zainab; Milko, Jordan; Iqbal, Munir; Masri, Moness; Almeida, David R P

2016-10-01

To investigate the power of unpaired t tests in prospective, randomized controlled trials when these tests failed to detect a statistically significant difference and to determine the frequency of type II errors. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We examined all prospective, randomized controlled trials published between 2010 and 2012 in 4 major ophthalmology journals (Archives of Ophthalmology, British Journal of Ophthalmology, Ophthalmology, and American Journal of Ophthalmology). Studies that used unpaired t tests were included. Power was calculated using the number of subjects in each group, standard deviations, and α = 0.05. The difference between control and experimental means was set to be (1) 20% and (2) 50% of the absolute value of the control's initial conditions. Power and Precision version 4.0 software was used to carry out calculations. Finally, the proportion of articles with type II errors was calculated. β = 0.3 was set as the largest acceptable value for the probability of type II errors. In total, 280 articles were screened. Final analysis included 50 prospective, randomized controlled trials using unpaired t tests. The median power of tests to detect a 50% difference between means was 0.9 and was the same for all 4 journals regardless of the statistical significance of the test. The median power of tests to detect a 20% difference between means ranged from 0.26 to 0.9 for the 4 journals. The median power of these tests to detect a 50% and 20% difference between means was 0.9 and 0.5 for tests that did not achieve statistical significance. A total of 14% and 57% of articles with negative unpaired t tests contained results with β > 0.3 when power was calculated for differences between means of 50% and 20%, respectively. A large portion of studies demonstrate high probabilities of type II errors when detecting small differences between means. The power to detect small difference between means varies across journals. It is, therefore, worthwhile for authors to mention the minimum clinically important difference for individual studies. Journals can consider publishing statistical guidelines for authors to use. Day-to-day clinical decisions rely heavily on the evidence base formed by the plethora of studies available to clinicians. Prospective, randomized controlled clinical trials are highly regarded as a robust study and are used to make important clinical decisions that directly affect patient care. The quality of study designs and statistical methods in major clinical journals is improving overtime, 1 and researchers and journals are being more attentive to statistical methodologies incorporated by studies. The results of well-designed ophthalmic studies with robust methodologies, therefore, have the ability to modify the ways in which diseases are managed. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

PubMed

Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

2017-05-01

The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pathogen-reduced platelets for the prevention of bleeding

PubMed Central

Estcourt, Lise J; Malouf, Reem; Hopewell, Sally; Trivella, Marialena; Doree, Carolyn; Stanworth, Simon J; Murphy, Michael F

2017-01-01

Background Platelet transfusions are used to prevent and treat bleeding in people who are thrombocytopenic. Despite improvements in donor screening and laboratory testing, a small risk of viral, bacterial, or protozoal contamination of platelets remains. There is also an ongoing risk from newly emerging blood transfusion-transmitted infections for which laboratory tests may not be available at the time of initial outbreak. One solution to reduce the risk of blood transfusion-transmitted infections from platelet transfusion is photochemical pathogen reduction, in which pathogens are either inactivated or significantly depleted in number, thereby reducing the chance of transmission. This process might offer additional benefits, including platelet shelf-life extension, and negate the requirement for gamma-irradiation of platelets. Although current pathogen-reduction technologies have been proven to reduce pathogen load in platelet concentrates, a number of published clinical studies have raised concerns about the effectiveness of pathogen-reduced platelets for post-transfusion platelet count recovery and the prevention of bleeding when compared with standard platelets. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2013. Objectives To assess the effectiveness of pathogen-reduced platelets for the prevention of bleeding in people of any age requiring platelet transfusions. Search methods We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2016, Issue 9), MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), CINAHL (from 1937), the Transfusion Evidence Library (from 1950), and ongoing trial databases to 24 October 2016. Selection criteria We included RCTs comparing the transfusion of pathogen-reduced platelets with standard platelets, or comparing different types of pathogen-reduced platelets. Data collection and analysis We used the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. Main results We identified five new trials in this update of the review. A total of 15 trials were eligible for inclusion in this review, 12 completed trials (2075 participants) and three ongoing trials. Ten of the 12 completed trials were included in the original review. We did not identify any RCTs comparing the transfusion of one type of pathogen-reduced platelets with another. Nine trials compared Intercept® pathogen-reduced platelets to standard platelets, two trials compared Mirasol® pathogen-reduced platelets to standard platelets; and one trial compared both pathogen-reduced platelets types to standard platelets. Three RCTs were randomised cross-over trials, and nine were parallel-group trials. Of the 2075 participants enrolled in the trials, 1981 participants received at least one platelet transfusion (1662 participants in Intercept® platelet trials and 319 in Mirasol® platelet trials). One trial included children requiring cardiac surgery (16 participants) or adults requiring a liver transplant (28 participants). All of the other participants were thrombocytopenic individuals who had a haematological or oncological diagnosis. Eight trials included only adults. Four of the included studies were at low risk of bias in every domain, while the remaining eight included studies had some threats to validity. Overall, the quality of the evidence was low to high across different outcomes according to GRADE methodology. We are very uncertain as to whether pathogen-reduced platelets increase the risk of any bleeding (World Health Organization (WHO) Grade 1 to 4) (5 trials, 1085 participants; fixed-effect risk ratio (RR) 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.15; I2 = 59%, random-effect RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.38; I2 = 59%; low-quality evidence). There was no evidence of a difference between pathogen-reduced platelets and standard platelets in the incidence of clinically significant bleeding complications (WHO Grade 2 or higher) (5 trials, 1392 participants; RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.25; I2 = 0%; moderate-quality evidence), and there is probably no difference in the risk of developing severe bleeding (WHO Grade 3 or higher) (6 trials, 1495 participants; RR 1.24, 95% CI 0.76 to 2.02; I2 = 32%; moderate-quality evidence). There is probably no difference between pathogen-reduced platelets and standard platelets in the incidence of all-cause mortality at 4 to 12 weeks (6 trials, 1509 participants; RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.29; I2 = 26%; moderate-quality evidence). There is probably no difference between pathogen-reduced platelets and standard platelets in the incidence of serious adverse events (7 trials, 1340 participants; RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.35; I2 = 0%; moderate-quality evidence). However, no bacterial transfusion-transmitted infections occurred in the six trials that reported this outcome. Participants who received pathogen-reduced platelet transfusions had an increased risk of developing platelet refractoriness (7 trials, 1525 participants; RR 2.94, 95% CI 2.08 to 4.16; I2 = 0%; high-quality evidence), though the definition of platelet refractoriness differed between trials. Participants who received pathogen-reduced platelet transfusions required more platelet transfusions (6 trials, 1509 participants; mean difference (MD) 1.23, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.61; I2 = 27%; high-quality evidence), and there was probably a shorter time interval between transfusions (6 trials, 1489 participants; MD -0.42, 95% CI -0.53 to -0.32; I2 = 29%; moderate-quality evidence). Participants who received pathogen-reduced platelet transfusions had a lower 24-hour corrected-count increment (7 trials, 1681 participants; MD -3.02, 95% CI -3.57 to -2.48; I2 = 15%; high-quality evidence). None of the studies reported quality of life. We did not evaluate any economic outcomes. There was evidence of subgroup differences in multiple transfusion trials between the two pathogen-reduced platelet technologies assessed in this review (Intercept® and Mirasol®) for all-cause mortality and the interval between platelet transfusions (favouring Intercept®). Authors' conclusions Findings from this review were based on 12 trials, and of the 1981 participants who received a platelet transfusion only 44 did not have a haematological or oncological diagnosis. In people with haematological or oncological disorders who are thrombocytopenic due to their disease or its treatment, we found high-quality evidence that pathogen-reduced platelet transfusions increase the risk of platelet refractoriness and the platelet transfusion requirement. We found moderate-quality evidence that pathogen-reduced platelet transfusions do not affect all-cause mortality, the risk of clinically significant or severe bleeding, or the risk of a serious adverse event. There was insufficient evidence for people with other diagnoses. All three ongoing trials are in adults (planned recruitment 1375 participants) with a haematological or oncological diagnosis. PMID:28756627

Comparative studies of the quantification of genetically modified organisms in foods processed from maize and soy using trial producing.

PubMed

Yoshimura, Tomoaki; Kuribara, Hideo; Kodama, Takashi; Yamata, Seiko; Futo, Satoshi; Watanabe, Satoshi; Aoki, Nobutaro; Iizuka, Tayoshi; Akiyama, Hiroshi; Maitani, Tamio; Naito, Shigehiro; Hino, Akihiro

2005-03-23

Seven types of processed foods, namely, cornstarch, cornmeal, corn puffs, corn chips, tofu, soy milk, and boiled beans, were trial produced from 1 and 5% (w/w) genetically modified (GM) mixed raw materials. In this report, insect resistant maize (MON810) and herbicide tolerant soy (Roundup Ready soy, 40-3-2) were used as representatives of GM maize and soy, respectively. Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) was extracted from the raw materials and the trial-produced processed food using two types of methods, i.e., the silica membrane method and the anion exchange method. The GM% values of these samples were quantified, and the significant differences between the raw materials and the trial-produced processed foods were statistically confirmed. There were some significant differences in the comparisons of all processed foods. However, our quantitative methods could be applied as a screening assay to tofu and soy milk because the differences in GM% between the trial-produced processed foods and their raw materials were lower than 13 and 23%, respectively. In addition, when quantitating with two primer pairs (SSIIb 3, 114 bp; SSIIb 4, 83 bp for maize and Le1n02, 118 bp; Le1n03, 89 bp for soy), which were targeted within the same taxon specific DNA sequence with different amplicon sizes, the ratios of the copy numbers of the two primer pairs (SSIIb 3/4 and Le1n02/03) decreased with time in a heat-treated processing model using an autoclave. In this report, we suggest that the degradation level of DNA in processed foods could be estimated from these ratios, and the probability of GM quantification could be experimentally predicted from the results of the trial producing.

Rationale and design of the Patient Related OuTcomes with Endeavor versus Cypher stenting Trial (PROTECT): randomized controlled trial comparing the incidence of stent thrombosis and clinical events after sirolimus or zotarolimus drug-eluting stent implantation.

PubMed

Camenzind, Edoardo; Wijns, William; Mauri, Laura; Boersma, Eric; Parikh, Keyur; Kurowski, Volkhard; Gao, Runlin; Bode, Christoph; Greenwood, John P; Gershlick, Anthony; O'Neill, William; Serruys, Patrick W; Jorissen, Brenda; Steg, P Gabriel

2009-12-01

Drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce restenosis rates compared to bare-metal stents. Most trials using DES enrolled selected patient and lesion subtypes, and primary endpoint focused on angiographic metrics or relatively short-term outcomes. When DES are used in broader types of lesions and patients, important differences may emerge in long-term outcomes between stent types, particularly the incidence of late stent thrombosis. PROTECT is a randomized, open-label trial comparing the long-term safety of the zotarolimus-eluting stent and the sirolimus-eluting stent. The trial has enrolled 8,800 patients representative of those seen in routine clinical practice, undergoing elective, unplanned, or emergency procedures in native coronary arteries in 196 centers in 36 countries. Indications for the procedure and selection of target vessel and lesion characteristics were at the operator's discretion. Procedures could be staged, but no more than 4 target lesions could be treated per patient. Duration of dual antiplatelet therapy was prespecified to achieve similar lengths of treatment in both study arms. The shortest predefined duration was 3 months, as per the manufacturer's instructions. The primary outcome measure is the composite rate of definite and probable stent thrombosis at 3 years, centrally adjudicated using Academic Research Consortium definitions. The main secondary end points are 3-year all-cause mortality, cardiac death, large nonfatal myocardial infarction, and all myocardial infarctions. This large, international, randomized, controlled trial will provide important information on comparative rates of stent thrombosis between 2 different DES systems and safety as assessed by patient-relevant long-term clinical outcomes.

fatalityCMR: capture-recapture software to correct raw counts of wildlife fatalities using trial experiments for carcass detection probability and persistence time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peron, Guillaume; Hines, James E.

2014-01-01

Many industrial and agricultural activities involve wildlife fatalities by collision, poisoning or other involuntary harvest: wind turbines, highway network, utility network, tall structures, pesticides, etc. Impacted wildlife may benefit from official protection, including the requirement to monitor the impact. Carcass counts can often be conducted to quantify the number of fatalities, but they need to be corrected for carcass persistence time (removal by scavengers and decay) and detection probability (searcher efficiency). In this article we introduce a new piece of software that fits a superpopulation capture-recapture model to raw count data. It uses trial data to estimate detection and daily persistence probabilities. A recurrent issue is that fatalities of rare, protected species are infrequent, in which case the software offers the option to switch to an ‘evidence of absence’ mode, i.e., estimate the number of carcasses that may have been missed by field crews. The software allows distinguishing between different turbine types (e.g. different vegetation cover under turbines, or different technical properties), as well between two carcass age-classes or states, with transition between those classes (e.g, fresh and dry). There is a data simulation capacity that may be used at the planning stage to optimize sampling design. Resulting mortality estimates can be used 1) to quantify the required amount of compensation, 2) inform mortality projections for proposed development sites, and 3) inform decisions about management of existing sites.

Using the time-to-event continual reassessment method in the presence of partial orders

PubMed Central

Wages, Nolan A.; Conaway, Mark R.; O'Quigley, John

2012-01-01

The time-to-event continual reassessment method (TITE-CRM) was proposed to handle the problem of long trial duration in Phase 1 trials as a result of late-onset toxicities. Here, we implement the TITE-CRM in dose–finding trials of combinations of agents. When studying multiple agents, monotonicity of the dose-toxicity curve is not clearly defined. Therefore, the toxicity probabilities follow a partial order, meaning that there are pairs of treatments for which the ordering of the toxicity probabilities is not known at the start of the trial. A CRM design for partially ordered trials (PO-CRM) was recently proposed. Simulation studies show that extending the TITE-CRM to the partial order setting produces results similar to those of the PO-CRM in terms of maximum tolerated dose recommendation yet reduces the duration of the trial. PMID:22806898

BOP2: Bayesian optimal design for phase II clinical trials with simple and complex endpoints.

PubMed

Zhou, Heng; Lee, J Jack; Yuan, Ying

2017-09-20

We propose a flexible Bayesian optimal phase II (BOP2) design that is capable of handling simple (e.g., binary) and complicated (e.g., ordinal, nested, and co-primary) endpoints under a unified framework. We use a Dirichlet-multinomial model to accommodate different types of endpoints. At each interim, the go/no-go decision is made by evaluating a set of posterior probabilities of the events of interest, which is optimized to maximize power or minimize the number of patients under the null hypothesis. Unlike other existing Bayesian designs, the BOP2 design explicitly controls the type I error rate, thereby bridging the gap between Bayesian designs and frequentist designs. In addition, the stopping boundary of the BOP2 design can be enumerated prior to the onset of the trial. These features make the BOP2 design accessible to a wide range of users and regulatory agencies and particularly easy to implement in practice. Simulation studies show that the BOP2 design has favorable operating characteristics with higher power and lower risk of incorrectly terminating the trial than some existing Bayesian phase II designs. The software to implement the BOP2 design is freely available at www.trialdesign.org. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimal clinical trial design based on a dichotomous Markov-chain mixed-effect sleep model.

PubMed

Steven Ernest, C; Nyberg, Joakim; Karlsson, Mats O; Hooker, Andrew C

2014-12-01

D-optimal designs for discrete-type responses have been derived using generalized linear mixed models, simulation based methods and analytical approximations for computing the fisher information matrix (FIM) of non-linear mixed effect models with homogeneous probabilities over time. In this work, D-optimal designs using an analytical approximation of the FIM for a dichotomous, non-homogeneous, Markov-chain phase advanced sleep non-linear mixed effect model was investigated. The non-linear mixed effect model consisted of transition probabilities of dichotomous sleep data estimated as logistic functions using piecewise linear functions. Theoretical linear and nonlinear dose effects were added to the transition probabilities to modify the probability of being in either sleep stage. D-optimal designs were computed by determining an analytical approximation the FIM for each Markov component (one where the previous state was awake and another where the previous state was asleep). Each Markov component FIM was weighted either equally or by the average probability of response being awake or asleep over the night and summed to derive the total FIM (FIM(total)). The reference designs were placebo, 0.1, 1-, 6-, 10- and 20-mg dosing for a 2- to 6-way crossover study in six dosing groups. Optimized design variables were dose and number of subjects in each dose group. The designs were validated using stochastic simulation/re-estimation (SSE). Contrary to expectations, the predicted parameter uncertainty obtained via FIM(total) was larger than the uncertainty in parameter estimates computed by SSE. Nevertheless, the D-optimal designs decreased the uncertainty of parameter estimates relative to the reference designs. Additionally, the improvement for the D-optimal designs were more pronounced using SSE than predicted via FIM(total). Through the use of an approximate analytic solution and weighting schemes, the FIM(total) for a non-homogeneous, dichotomous Markov-chain phase advanced sleep model was computed and provided more efficient trial designs and increased nonlinear mixed-effects modeling parameter precision.

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model (Markov) that needs the parameterization of transition probabilities, and only has summary KM plots available.

Cost-effectiveness of external cephalic version for term breech presentation.

PubMed

Tan, Jonathan M; Macario, Alex; Carvalho, Brendan; Druzin, Maurice L; El-Sayed, Yasser Y

2010-01-21

External cephalic version (ECV) is recommended by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists to convert a breech fetus to vertex position and reduce the need for cesarean delivery. The goal of this study was to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, from society's perspective, of ECV compared to scheduled cesarean for term breech presentation. A computer-based decision model (TreeAge Pro 2008, Tree Age Software, Inc.) was developed for a hypothetical base case parturient presenting with a term singleton breech fetus with no contraindications for vaginal delivery. The model incorporated actual hospital costs (e.g., $8,023 for cesarean and $5,581 for vaginal delivery), utilities to quantify health-related quality of life, and probabilities based on analysis of published literature of successful ECV trial, spontaneous reversion, mode of delivery, and need for unanticipated emergency cesarean delivery. The primary endpoint was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in dollars per quality-adjusted year of life gained. A threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) was used to determine cost-effectiveness. The incremental cost-effectiveness of ECV, assuming a baseline 58% success rate, equaled $7,900/QALY. If the estimated probability of successful ECV is less than 32%, then ECV costs more to society and has poorer QALYs for the patient. However, as the probability of successful ECV was between 32% and 63%, ECV cost more than cesarean delivery but with greater associated QALY such that the cost-effectiveness ratio was less than $50,000/QALY. If the probability of successful ECV was greater than 63%, the computer modeling indicated that a trial of ECV is less costly and with better QALYs than a scheduled cesarean. The cost-effectiveness of a trial of ECV is most sensitive to its probability of success, and not to the probabilities of a cesarean after ECV, spontaneous reversion to breech, successful second ECV trial, or adverse outcome from emergency cesarean. From society's perspective, ECV trial is cost-effective when compared to a scheduled cesarean for breech presentation provided the probability of successful ECV is > 32%. Improved algorithms are needed to more precisely estimate the likelihood that a patient will have a successful ECV.

Treatment of benign esophageal stricture by Eder-Puestow or balloon dilators: a comparison between randomized and prospective nonrandomized trials.

PubMed

Yamamoto, H; Hughes, R W; Schroeder, K W; Viggiano, T R; DiMagno, E P

1992-03-01

To determine whether the natural history of strictures is affected by the type of dilator used to treat newly diagnosed peptic strictures, we designed a prospective randomized trial to compare the results after Eder-Puestow or Medi-Tech balloon dilation. We entered 31 patients into the trial. We also prospectively followed up all 92 nonrandomized patients who underwent their first dilation for a benign stricture during the same period as the prospective randomized trial. The nonrandomized patients also underwent dilation with either the Eder-Puestow or the balloon technique at the discretion of the gastroenterologist performing the endoscopy. We found no statistically significant differences in the immediate or long-term results of the two methods among the randomized, nonrandomized, and overall combined groups. All but 1 of the 123 patients had immediate relief of dysphagia. Within each group of patients, the probability of remaining free of dysphagia 1 year after the initial dilation was approximately 20%, and the probability of not requiring a second dilation was approximately 65% with either technique. Major (esophageal rupture) and minor (bleeding or chest pain) complications occurred in 1% and 5% of the patients and 0.4% and 3% of the total dilation procedures, respectively. The esophageal rupture and four of six minor complications occurred after repeated dilations. Five of the six minor complications occurred with use of the Eder-Puestow dilators. We conclude that Eder-Puestow and balloon dilations of benign esophageal strictures are associated with similar outcomes, but repeated dilations and the Eder-Puestow technique may be associated with an increased risk of complications.

Coffee, Caffeine, and Health Outcomes: An Umbrella Review.

PubMed

Grosso, Giuseppe; Godos, Justyna; Galvano, Fabio; Giovannucci, Edward L

2017-08-21

To evaluate the associations between coffee and caffeine consumption and various health outcomes, we performed an umbrella review of the evidence from meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Of the 59 unique outcomes examined in the selected 112 meta-analyses of observational studies, coffee was associated with a probable decreased risk of breast, colorectal, colon, endometrial, and prostate cancers; cardiovascular disease and mortality; Parkinson's disease; and type-2 diabetes. Of the 14 unique outcomes examined in the 20 selected meta-analyses of observational studies, caffeine was associated with a probable decreased risk of Parkinson's disease and type-2 diabetes and an increased risk of pregnancy loss. Of the 12 unique acute outcomes examined in the selected 9 meta-analyses of RCTs, coffee was associated with a rise in serum lipids, but this result was affected by significant heterogeneity, and caffeine was associated with a rise in blood pressure. Given the spectrum of conditions studied and the robustness of many of the results, these findings indicate that coffee can be part of a healthful diet.

Cost effectiveness of group follow-up after structured education for type 1 diabetes: a cluster randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This study examines the cost effectiveness of group follow-up after participation in the Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) structured education programme for type 1 diabetes. Methods Economic evaluation conducted alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial involving 437 adults with type 1 diabetes in Ireland. Group follow-up involved two group education ‘booster’ sessions post-DAFNE. Individual follow-up involved two standard one-to-one hospital clinic visits. Incremental costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and cost effectiveness were estimated at 18 months. Uncertainty was explored using sensitivity analysis and by estimating cost effectiveness acceptability curves. Results Group follow-up was associated with a mean reduction in QALYs gained of 0.04 per patient (P value, 0.052; 95% CI, −0.08 to 0.01, intra-class correlation (ICC), 0.033) and a mean reduction in total healthcare costs of €772 (P value, 0.020; 95% CI, −1,415 to −128: ICC, 0.016) per patient. At alternative threshold values of €5,000, €15,000, €25,000, €35,000, and €45,000, the probability of group follow-up being cost effective was estimated to be 1.000, 0.762, 0.204, 0.078, and 0.033 respectively. Conclusions The results do not support implementation of group follow-up as the sole means of follow-up post-DAFNE. Given the reported cost savings, future studies should explore the cost effectiveness of alternative models of group care for diabetes. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN79759174 (assigned: 9 February 2007). PMID:24927851

Effects of reducing blood pressure on renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes: Focus on SGLT2 inhibitors and EMPA-REG OUTCOME.

PubMed

Scheen, A J; Delanaye, P

2017-04-01

Empagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, has enabled remarkable reductions in cardiovascular and all-cause mortality as well as in renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and a history of cardiovascular disease in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME. These results have been attributed to haemodynamic rather than metabolic effects, in part due to the osmotic/diuretic action of empagliflozin and the reduction in arterial blood pressure (BP). The present narrative review includes the results of meta-analyses of trials evaluating the effects on renal outcomes of lowering BP in patients with T2D, with a special focus on the influence of baseline and achieved systolic BP, and compares the renal outcome results of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME with those of other major trials with inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin system in patients with T2D and the preliminary findings with other SGLT2 inhibitors, and also evaluates post hoc analyses from the EMPA-REG OUTCOME of special interest as regards the BP-lowering hypothesis and renal function. While systemic BP reduction associated to empagliflozin therapy may have contributed to the renal benefits reported in EMPA-REG OUTCOME, other local mechanisms related to kidney homoeostasis most probably also played a role in the overall protection observed in the trial. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Accurate step-hold tracking of smoothly varying periodic and aperiodic probability.

PubMed

Ricci, Matthew; Gallistel, Randy

2017-07-01

Subjects observing many samples from a Bernoulli distribution are able to perceive an estimate of the generating parameter. A question of fundamental importance is how the current percept-what we think the probability now is-depends on the sequence of observed samples. Answers to this question are strongly constrained by the manner in which the current percept changes in response to changes in the hidden parameter. Subjects do not update their percept trial-by-trial when the hidden probability undergoes unpredictable and unsignaled step changes; instead, they update it only intermittently in a step-hold pattern. It could be that the step-hold pattern is not essential to the perception of probability and is only an artifact of step changes in the hidden parameter. However, we now report that the step-hold pattern obtains even when the parameter varies slowly and smoothly. It obtains even when the smooth variation is periodic (sinusoidal) and perceived as such. We elaborate on a previously published theory that accounts for: (i) the quantitative properties of the step-hold update pattern; (ii) subjects' quick and accurate reporting of changes; (iii) subjects' second thoughts about previously reported changes; (iv) subjects' detection of higher-order structure in patterns of change. We also call attention to the challenges these results pose for trial-by-trial updating theories.

Randomized trials are frequently fragmented in multiple secondary publications.

PubMed

Ebrahim, Shanil; Montoya, Luis; Kamal El Din, Mostafa; Sohani, Zahra N; Agarwal, Arnav; Bance, Sheena; Saquib, Juliann; Saquib, Nazmus; Ioannidis, John P A

2016-11-01

To assess the frequency and features of secondary publications of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). For 191 RCTs published in high-impact journals in 2009, we searched for secondary publications coauthored by at least one same author of the primary trial publication. We evaluated the probability of having secondary publications, characteristics of the primary trial publication that predict having secondary publications, types of secondary analyses conducted, and statistical significance of those analyses. Of 191 primary trials, 88 (46%) had a total of 475 secondary publications by 2/2014. Eight trials had >10 (up to 51) secondary publications each. In multivariable modeling, the risk of having subsequent secondary publications increased 1.32-fold (95% CI 1.05-1.68) per 10-fold increase in sample size, and 1.71-fold (95% CI 1.19-2.45) in the presence of a design article. In a sample of 197 secondary publications examined in depth, 193 tested different hypotheses than the primary publication. Of the 193, 43 tested differences between subgroups, 85 assessed predictive factors associated with an outcome of interest, 118 evaluated different outcomes than the original article, 71 had differences in eligibility criteria, and 21 assessed different durations of follow-up; 176 (91%) presented at least one analysis with statistically significant results. Approximately half of randomized trials in high-impact journals have secondary publications published with a few trials followed by numerous secondary publications. Almost all of these publications report some statistically significant results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Making Sense of a Negative Clinical Trial Result: A Bayesian Analysis of a Clinical Trial of Lorazepam and Diazepam for Pediatric Status Epilepticus.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Daniel B; Chamberlain, James M

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the application of a Bayesian approach to a recent negative clinical trial result. A Bayesian analysis of such a trial can provide a more useful interpretation of results and can incorporate previous evidence. This was a secondary analysis of the efficacy and safety results of the Pediatric Seizure Study, a randomized clinical trial of lorazepam versus diazepam for pediatric status epilepticus. We included the published results from the only prospective pediatric study of status in a Bayesian hierarchic model, and we performed sensitivity analyses on the amount of pooling between studies. We evaluated 3 summary analyses for the results: superiority, noninferiority (margin <-10%), and practical equivalence (within ±10%). Consistent with the original study's classic analysis of study results, we did not demonstrate superiority of lorazepam over diazepam. There is a 95% probability that the true efficacy of lorazepam is in the range of 66% to 80%. For both the efficacy and safety outcomes, there was greater than 95% probability that lorazepam is noninferior to diazepam, and there was greater than 90% probability that the 2 medications are practically equivalent. The results were largely driven by the current study because of the sample sizes of our study (n=273) and the previous pediatric study (n=61). Because Bayesian analysis estimates the probability of one or more hypotheses, such an approach can provide more useful information about the meaning of the results of a negative trial outcome. In the case of pediatric status epilepticus, it is highly likely that lorazepam is noninferior and practically equivalent to diazepam. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disruptive effects of prefeeding and haloperidol administration on multiple measures of food-maintained behavior in rats

PubMed Central

Hayashi, Yusuke; Wirth, Oliver

2015-01-01

Four rats responded under a choice reaction-time procedure. At the beginning of each trial, the rats were required to hold down a center lever for a variable duration, release it following a high- or low-pitched tone, and press either a left or right lever, conditionally on the tone. Correct choices were reinforced with a probability of .95 or .05 under blinking or static houselights, respectively. After performance stabilized, disruptive effects of free access to food pellets prior to sessions (prefeeding) and intraperitoneal injection of haloperidol were examined on multiple behavioral measures (i.e., the number of trials completed, percent of correct responses, and reaction time). Resistance to prefeeding depended on the probability of food delivery for the number of trials completed and reaction time. Resistance to haloperidol, on the other hand, was not systematically affected by the probability of food delivery for all dependent measures. PMID:22209910

Probability judgments of agency: rational or irrational?

PubMed

Schmidt, Thomas; Heumüller, Vera C

2010-03-01

We studied how people attribute action outcomes to their own actions under conditions of uncertainty. Participants chose between left and right keypresses to produce an action effect (a corresponding left or right light), while a computer player made a simultaneous keypress decision. In each trial, a random generator determined which of the players controlled the action effect at varying probabilities, and participants then judged which player had produced it. Participants' effect control ranged from 20% to 80%, varied blockwise, and they could use trial-by-trial feedback to optimize the accuracy of their agency judgments. Participants tended to attribute action effects to themselves (agency bias), probably reflecting a rational guessing strategy of always naming the more likely player. However, participants systematically neglected information favoring the computer player as the agent, even under conditions where this bias could only harm judgment accuracy. We conclude that agency biases have both rational and irrational components.

Improving the analysis of composite endpoints in rare disease trials.

PubMed

McMenamin, Martina; Berglind, Anna; Wason, James M S

2018-05-22

Composite endpoints are recommended in rare diseases to increase power and/or to sufficiently capture complexity. Often, they are in the form of responder indices which contain a mixture of continuous and binary components. Analyses of these outcomes typically treat them as binary, thus only using the dichotomisations of continuous components. The augmented binary method offers a more efficient alternative and is therefore especially useful for rare diseases. Previous work has indicated the method may have poorer statistical properties when the sample size is small. Here we investigate small sample properties and implement small sample corrections. We re-sample from a previous trial with sample sizes varying from 30 to 80. We apply the standard binary and augmented binary methods and determine the power, type I error rate, coverage and average confidence interval width for each of the estimators. We implement Firth's adjustment for the binary component models and a small sample variance correction for the generalized estimating equations, applying the small sample adjusted methods to each sub-sample as before for comparison. For the log-odds treatment effect the power of the augmented binary method is 20-55% compared to 12-20% for the standard binary method. Both methods have approximately nominal type I error rates. The difference in response probabilities exhibit similar power but both unadjusted methods demonstrate type I error rates of 6-8%. The small sample corrected methods have approximately nominal type I error rates. On both scales, the reduction in average confidence interval width when using the adjusted augmented binary method is 17-18%. This is equivalent to requiring a 32% smaller sample size to achieve the same statistical power. The augmented binary method with small sample corrections provides a substantial improvement for rare disease trials using composite endpoints. We recommend the use of the method for the primary analysis in relevant rare disease trials. We emphasise that the method should be used alongside other efforts in improving the quality of evidence generated from rare disease trials rather than replace them.

Feedback produces divergence from prospect theory in descriptive choice.

PubMed

Jessup, Ryan K; Bishara, Anthony J; Busemeyer, Jerome R

2008-10-01

A recent study demonstrated that individuals making experience-based choices underweight small probabilities, in contrast to the overweighting observed in a typical descriptive paradigm. We tested whether trial-by-trial feedback in a repeated descriptive paradigm would engender choices more correspondent with experiential or descriptive paradigms. The results of a repeated gambling task indicated that individuals receiving feedback underweighted small probabilities, relative to their no-feedback counterparts. These results implicate feedback as a critical component during the decision-making process, even in the presence of fully specified descriptive information. A model comparison at the individual-subject level suggested that feedback drove individuals' decision weights toward objective probability weighting.

A new account of the effect of probability on task switching: ERP evidence following the manipulation of switch probability, cue informativeness and predictability

PubMed Central

Nessler, Doreen; Friedman, David; Johnson, Ray

2012-01-01

This task-switching ERP study of 16 young participants investigated whether increased RT slowing on stay trials and faster RTs on switch trials for frequent than infrequent switching are explained by an activation or preparation account. The activation account proposes that task sets are maintained at a higher baseline activation level for frequent switching, necessitating increased task-set updating, as reflected by a larger and/or longer lasting early parietal positivity. The preparation account assumes advance (pre-cue) switch preparation (i.e., task-set reconfiguration), preceding stay and switch trials for frequent switching, as reflected by pre-cue and post-cue late parietal positivities. By and large, the data support the activation account. However, we also found increased, pre-cue task-set updating on frequent stay trials and pre-cue, task-set reconfiguration prior to predictable, frequent switches. These results lead us to propose an extended activation account to explain the effects of switch probability on the executive processes underlying task-switching behavior. PMID:22820040

Improving adherence to Standard Precautions for the control of health care-associated infections.

PubMed

Moralejo, Donna; El Dib, Regina; Prata, Rafaela A; Barretti, Pasqual; Corrêa, Ione

2018-02-26

'Standard Precautions' refers to a system of actions, such as using personal protective equipment or adhering to safe handling of needles, that healthcare workers take to reduce the spread of germs in healthcare settings such as hospitals and nursing homes. To assess the effectiveness of interventions that target healthcare workers to improve adherence to Standard Precautions in patient care. We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, two other databases, and two trials registers. We applied no language restrictions. The date of the most recent search was 14 February 2017. We included randomised trials of individuals, cluster-randomised trials, non-randomised trials, controlled before-after studies, and interrupted time-series studies that evaluated any intervention to improve adherence to Standard Precautions by any healthcare worker with responsibility for patient care in any hospital, long-term care or community setting, or artificial setting, such as a classroom or a learning laboratory. Two review authors independently screened search results, extracted data from eligible trials, and assessed risk of bias for each included study, using standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. Because of substantial heterogeneity among interventions and outcome measures, meta-analysis was not warranted. We used the GRADE approach to assess certainty of evidence and have presented results narratively in 'Summary of findings' tables. We included eight studies with a total of 673 participants; three studies were conducted in Asia, two in Europe, two in North America, and one in Australia. Five studies were randomised trials, two were cluster-randomised trials, and one was a non-randomised trial. Three studies compared different educational approaches versus no education, one study compared education with visualisation of respiratory particle dispersion versus education alone, two studies compared education with additional infection control support versus no intervention, one study compared peer evaluation versus no intervention, and one study evaluated use of a checklist and coloured cues. We considered all studies to be at high risk of bias with different risks. All eight studies used different measures to assess healthcare workers' adherence to Standard Precautions. Three studies also assessed healthcare workers' knowledge, and one measured rates of colonisation with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) among residents and staff of long-term care facilities. Because of heterogeneity in interventions and outcome measures, we did not conduct a meta-analysis.Education may slightly improve both healthcare workers' adherence to Standard Precautions (three studies; four centres) and their level of knowledge (two studies; three centres; low certainty of evidence for both outcomes).Education with visualisation of respiratory particle dispersion probably improves healthcare workers' use of facial protection but probably leads to little or no difference in knowledge (one study; 20 nurses; moderate certainty of evidence for both outcomes).Education with additional infection control support may slightly improve healthcare workers' adherence to Standard Precautions (two studies; 44 long-term care facilities; low certainty of evidence) but probably leads to little or no difference in rates of health care-associated colonisation with MRSA (one study; 32 long-term care facilities; moderate certainty of evidence).Peer evaluation probably improves healthcare workers' adherence to Standard Precautions (one study; one hospital; moderate certainty of evidence).Checklists and coloured cues probably improve healthcare workers' adherence to Standard Precautions (one study; one hospital; moderate certainty of evidence). Considerable variation in interventions and in outcome measures used, along with high risk of bias and variability in the certainty of evidence, makes it difficult to draw conclusions about effectiveness of the interventions. This review underlines the need to conduct more robust studies evaluating similar types of interventions and using similar outcome measures.

Why Current Statistics of Complementary Alternative Medicine Clinical Trials is Invalid.

PubMed

Pandolfi, Maurizio; Carreras, Giulia

2018-06-07

It is not sufficiently known that frequentist statistics cannot provide direct information on the probability that the research hypothesis tested is correct. The error resulting from this misunderstanding is compounded when the hypotheses under scrutiny have precarious scientific bases, which, generally, those of complementary alternative medicine (CAM) are. In such cases, it is mandatory to use inferential statistics, considering the prior probability that the hypothesis tested is true, such as the Bayesian statistics. The authors show that, under such circumstances, no real statistical significance can be achieved in CAM clinical trials. In this respect, CAM trials involving human material are also hardly defensible from an ethical viewpoint.

Trial Promoter: A Web-Based Tool for Boosting the Promotion of Clinical Research Through Social Media.

PubMed

Reuter, Katja; Ukpolo, Francis; Ward, Edward; Wilson, Melissa L; Angyan, Praveen

2016-06-29

Scarce information about clinical research, in particular clinical trials, is among the top reasons why potential participants do not take part in clinical studies. Without volunteers, on the other hand, clinical research and the development of novel approaches to preventing, diagnosing, and treating disease are impossible. Promising digital options such as social media have the potential to work alongside traditional methods to boost the promotion of clinical research. However, investigators and research institutions are challenged to leverage these innovations while saving time and resources. To develop and test the efficiency of a Web-based tool that automates the generation and distribution of user-friendly social media messages about clinical trials. Trial Promoter is developed in Ruby on Rails, HTML, cascading style sheet (CSS), and JavaScript. In order to test the tool and the correctness of the generated messages, clinical trials (n=46) were randomized into social media messages and distributed via the microblogging social media platform Twitter and the social network Facebook. The percent correct was calculated to determine the probability with which Trial Promoter generates accurate messages. During a 10-week testing phase, Trial Promoter automatically generated and published 525 user-friendly social media messages on Twitter and Facebook. On average, Trial Promoter correctly used the message templates and substituted the message parameters (text, URLs, and disease hashtags) 97.7% of the time (1563/1600). Trial Promoter may serve as a promising tool to render clinical trial promotion more efficient while requiring limited resources. It supports the distribution of any research or other types of content. The Trial Promoter code and installation instructions are freely available online.

Trial Promoter: A Web-Based Tool for Boosting the Promotion of Clinical Research Through Social Media

PubMed Central

Ukpolo, Francis; Ward, Edward; Wilson, Melissa L

2016-01-01

Background Scarce information about clinical research, in particular clinical trials, is among the top reasons why potential participants do not take part in clinical studies. Without volunteers, on the other hand, clinical research and the development of novel approaches to preventing, diagnosing, and treating disease are impossible. Promising digital options such as social media have the potential to work alongside traditional methods to boost the promotion of clinical research. However, investigators and research institutions are challenged to leverage these innovations while saving time and resources. Objective To develop and test the efficiency of a Web-based tool that automates the generation and distribution of user-friendly social media messages about clinical trials. Methods Trial Promoter is developed in Ruby on Rails, HTML, cascading style sheet (CSS), and JavaScript. In order to test the tool and the correctness of the generated messages, clinical trials (n=46) were randomized into social media messages and distributed via the microblogging social media platform Twitter and the social network Facebook. The percent correct was calculated to determine the probability with which Trial Promoter generates accurate messages. Results During a 10-week testing phase, Trial Promoter automatically generated and published 525 user-friendly social media messages on Twitter and Facebook. On average, Trial Promoter correctly used the message templates and substituted the message parameters (text, URLs, and disease hashtags) 97.7% of the time (1563/1600). Conclusions Trial Promoter may serve as a promising tool to render clinical trial promotion more efficient while requiring limited resources. It supports the distribution of any research or other types of content. The Trial Promoter code and installation instructions are freely available online. PMID:27357424

Savior siblings and Fanconi anemia: analysis of success rates from the family's perspective.

PubMed

Trujillo, Juan P; Surralles, Jordi

2015-11-01

The current curative treatment of Fanconi anemia is hematopoietic stem cell transplantation; this treatment has a higher rate of successful outcome when donors are compatible siblings. Therefore some families opt to have a healthy and compatible baby after selecting an embryo using preimplantation genetic diagnosis with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing. This study aims to estimate the success rate of this procedure from the family's perspective. Genetic and embryology data were collected from genetic reports provided by the families. A total of 524 oocytes (14.1 oocytes/cycle) and 299 embryos were generated (8.0 embryos/cycle) after 38 in vitro fertilization cycles. Sixteen embryos were transferred to the uterus because they were non-Fanconi anemia and HLA matched. One baby was born. A younger couple delivered a healthy and HLA-compatible baby after four cycles. Therefore, the success rate per cycle is less than 5% (two babies from 42 trials). While Fanconi anemia per se does not worsen the probability of success, a critical factor is advanced maternal age; a late diagnosis leads to few transferrable embryos and high rates of aneuploidy. Families should be informed in advance of the many trials that they will probably need to undergo even if a haploidentical younger relative is available as an oocyte donor.

Artemether for severe malaria

PubMed Central

Esu, Ekpereonne; Effa, Emmanuel E; Opie, Oko N; Uwaoma, Amirahobu; Meremikwu, Martin M

2014-01-01

Background In 2011 the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended parenteral artesunate in preference to quinine as first-line treatment for people with severe malaria. Prior to this recommendation, many countries, particularly in Africa, had begun to use artemether, an alternative artemisinin derivative. This review evaluates intramuscular artemether compared with both quinine and artesunate. Objectives To assess the efficacy and safety of intramuscular artemether versus any other parenteral medication in treating severe malaria in adults and children. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, EMBASE and LILACS, ISI Web of Science, conference proceedings and reference lists of articles. We also searched the WHO clinical trial registry platform, ClinicalTrials.gov and the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) for ongoing trials up to 9 April 2014. Selection criteria Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing intramuscular artemether with intravenous or intramuscular antimalarial for treating severe malaria. Data collection and analysis The primary outcome was all-cause death.Two authors independently assessed trial eligibility, risk of bias and extracted data. We summarized dichotomous outcomes using risk ratios (RR) and continuous outcomes using mean differences (MD), and presented both measures with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate, we combined data in meta-analyses and assessed the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. Main results We included 18 RCTs, enrolling 2662 adults and children with severe malaria, carried out in Africa (11) and in Asia (7). Artemether versus quinine For children in Africa, there is probably little or no difference in the risk of death between intramuscular artemether and quinine (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.20; 12 trials, 1447 participants, moderate quality evidence). Coma recovery may be about five hours shorter with artemether (MD -5.45, 95% CI -7.90 to -3.00; six trials, 358 participants, low quality evidence), and artemether may result in fewer neurological sequelae, but larger trials would be needed to confirm this (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.07; seven trials, 968 participants, low quality evidence). Artemether probably shortens the parasite clearance time by about nine hours (MD -9.03, 95% CI -11.43 to -6.63; seven trials, 420 participants, moderate quality evidence), and may shorten the fever clearance time by about three hours (MD -3.73, 95% CI -6.55 to -0.92; eight trials, 457 participants, low quality evidence). For adults in Asia, treatment with intramuscular artemether probably results in fewer deaths than treatment with quinine (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.83; four trials, 716 participants, moderate quality evidence). Artemether versus artesunate Artemether and artesunate have not been directly compared in randomized trials in African children. For adults in Asia, mortality is probably higher with intramuscular artemether (RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.97, two trials,494 participants, moderate quality evidence). Authors' conclusions Although there is a lack of direct evidence comparing artemether with artesunate, artemether is probably less effective than artesunate at preventing deaths from severe malaria. In circumstances where artesunate is not available, artemether is an alternative to quinine. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Artemether injection for treating people with severe malaria In this review, researchers from The Cochrane Collaboration examined the effects of treating people that have severe malaria with artemether injected intramuscularly, and compared it to treatment with other antimalarial drugs given intramuscularly or intravenously. After searching for relevant trials up to 9 April 2014, we included 18 randomized controlled trials that recruited 2662 adults and children and were conducted mainly in Africa and Asia. What is severe malaria and how might artemether injection reduce deaths Severe malaria is caused by infection with the Plasmodium parasite, which is transmitted to people through the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. It is a serious medical condition and can cause vomiting, anaemia, convulsions and death. People need to be treated as quickly as possible. Injection of artesunate is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for treating adults and children that have severe malaria as trials have shown that it results in fewer deaths compared to quinine treatment. Artemether is an alternative artemisinin derivative but is only available as a pre-mixed oil-based solution for intramuscular injection. Artemether is now widely available and is used in many African countries, although it is not specifically recommended by the WHO. What the research says Artemether versus quinine: For children in Africa, intramuscular artemether is probably as good as quinine at preventing deaths from severe malaria (moderate quality evidence). Artemether may shorten recovery time from coma by about five hours (low quality evidence), and may reduce the number of children with signs of brain damage at the time of hospital discharge (low quality evidence). In older children (= 15 years) and adults in Asia, treatment with artemether probably results in fewer deaths than quinine (moderate quality evidence). Artemether versus artesunate: In adults from Asia, artesunate probably prevents more deaths than artemether (moderate quality evidence), but no trials have been conducted in young children from Africa. Authors conclusions Although there is a lack of direct evidence comparing artemether with artesunate, artemether is probably less effective than artesunate at preventing deaths from severe malaria. In circumstances where artesunate is not available, artemether is an alternative to quinine. PMID:25209020

Effect of social influence on effort-allocation for monetary rewards.

PubMed

Gilman, Jodi M; Treadway, Michael T; Curran, Max T; Calderon, Vanessa; Evins, A Eden

2015-01-01

Though decades of research have shown that people are highly influenced by peers, few studies have directly assessed how the value of social conformity is weighed against other types of costs and benefits. Using an effort-based decision-making paradigm with a novel social influence manipulation, we measured how social influence affected individuals' decisions to allocate effort for monetary rewards during trials with either high or low probability of receiving a reward. We found that information about the effort-allocation of peers modulated participant choices, specifically during conditions of low probability of obtaining a reward. This suggests that peer influence affects effort-based choices to obtain rewards especially under conditions of risk. This study provides evidence that people value social conformity in addition to other costs and benefits when allocating effort, and suggests that neuroeconomic studies that assess trade-offs between effort and reward should consider social environment as a factor that can influence decision-making.

Mice plan decision strategies based on previously learned time intervals, locations, and probabilities

PubMed Central

Tosun, Tuğçe; Gür, Ezgi; Balcı, Fuat

2016-01-01

Animals can shape their timed behaviors based on experienced probabilistic relations in a nearly optimal fashion. On the other hand, it is not clear if they adopt these timed decisions by making computations based on previously learnt task parameters (time intervals, locations, and probabilities) or if they gradually develop their decisions based on trial and error. To address this question, we tested mice in the timed-switching task, which required them to anticipate when (after a short or long delay) and at which of the two delay locations a reward would be presented. The probability of short trials differed between test groups in two experiments. Critically, we first trained mice on relevant task parameters by signaling the active trial with a discriminative stimulus and delivered the corresponding reward after the associated delay without any response requirement (without inducing switching behavior). During the test phase, both options were presented simultaneously to characterize the emergence and temporal characteristics of the switching behavior. Mice exhibited timed-switching behavior starting from the first few test trials, and their performance remained stable throughout testing in the majority of the conditions. Furthermore, as the probability of the short trial increased, mice waited longer before switching from the short to long location (experiment 1). These behavioral adjustments were in directions predicted by reward maximization. These results suggest that rather than gradually adjusting their time-dependent choice behavior, mice abruptly adopted temporal decision strategies by directly integrating their previous knowledge of task parameters into their timed behavior, supporting the model-based representational account of temporal risk assessment. PMID:26733674

Modulation of Complex-Spike Duration and Probability during Cerebellar Motor Learning in Visually Guided Smooth-Pursuit Eye Movements of Monkeys

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Activation of an inferior olivary neuron powerfully excites Purkinje cells via its climbing fiber input and triggers a characteristic high-frequency burst, known as the complex spike (CS). The theory of cerebellar learning postulates that the CS induces long-lasting depression of the strength of synapses from active parallel fibers onto Purkinje cells, and that synaptic depression leads to changes in behavior. Prior reports showed that a CS on one learning trial is linked to a properly timed depression of simple spikes on the subsequent trial, as well as a learned change in pursuit eye movement. Further, the duration of a CS is a graded instruction for single-trial plasticity and behavioral learning. We now show across multiple learning paradigms that both the probability and duration of CS responses are correlated with the magnitudes of neural and behavioral learning in awake behaving monkeys. When the direction of the instruction for learning repeatedly was in the same direction or alternated directions, the duration and probability of CS responses decreased over a learning block along with the magnitude of trial-over-trial neural learning. When the direction of the instruction was randomized, CS duration, CS probability, and neural and behavioral learning remained stable across time. In contrast to depression, potentiation of simple-spike firing rate for ON-direction learning instructions follows a longer time course and plays a larger role as depression wanes. Computational analysis provides a model that accounts fully for the detailed statistics of a complex set of data. PMID:28698888

Incorporating uncertainty regarding applicability of evidence from meta-analyses into clinical decision making.

PubMed

Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona

2014-03-01

Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Sabaté, Manel; Kaiser, Christoph; Brugaletta, Salvatore; de la Torre Hernandez, Jose Maria; Galatius, Soeren; Cequier, Angel; Eberli, Franz; de Belder, Adam; Serruys, Patrick W; Ferrante, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis. PMID:25378023

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis.

PubMed

Valgimigli, Marco; Sabaté, Manel; Kaiser, Christoph; Brugaletta, Salvatore; de la Torre Hernandez, Jose Maria; Galatius, Soeren; Cequier, Angel; Eberli, Franz; de Belder, Adam; Serruys, Patrick W; Ferrante, Giuseppe

2014-11-04

To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis. © Valgimigli et al 2014.

Vitamin D and multiple health outcomes: umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies and randomised trials

PubMed Central

Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Zgaga, Lina; Ioannidis, John P A

2014-01-01

Objective To evaluate the breadth, validity, and presence of biases of the associations of vitamin D with diverse outcomes. Design Umbrella review of the evidence across systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies of plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D or 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D concentrations and randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation. Data sources Medline, Embase, and screening of citations and references. Eligibility criteria Three types of studies were eligible for the umbrella review: systematic reviews and meta-analyses that examined observational associations between circulating vitamin D concentrations and any clinical outcome; and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials assessing supplementation with vitamin D or active compounds (both established and newer compounds of vitamin D). Results 107 systematic literature reviews and 74 meta-analyses of observational studies of plasma vitamin D concentrations and 87 meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation were identified. The relation between vitamin D and 137 outcomes has been explored, covering a wide range of skeletal, malignant, cardiovascular, autoimmune, infectious, metabolic, and other diseases. Ten outcomes were examined by both meta-analyses of observational studies and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials, but the direction of the effect and level of statistical significance was concordant only for birth weight (maternal vitamin D status or supplementation). On the basis of the available evidence, an association between vitamin D concentrations and birth weight, dental caries in children, maternal vitamin D concentrations at term, and parathyroid hormone concentrations in patients with chronic kidney disease requiring dialysis is probable, but further studies and better designed trials are needed to draw firmer conclusions. In contrast to previous reports, evidence does not support the argument that vitamin D only supplementation increases bone mineral density or reduces the risk of fractures or falls in older people. Conclusions Despite a few hundred systematic reviews and meta-analyses, highly convincing evidence of a clear role of vitamin D does not exist for any outcome, but associations with a selection of outcomes are probable. PMID:24690624

Effects of stop-signal probability in the stop-signal paradigm: the N2/P3 complex further validated.

PubMed

Ramautar, J R; Kok, A; Ridderinkhof, K R

2004-11-01

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of frequency of occurrence of stop signals in the stop-signal paradigm. Presenting stop signals less frequently resulted in faster reaction times to the go stimulus and a lower probability of inhibition. Also, go stimuli elicited larger and somewhat earlier P3 responses when stop signals occurred less frequently. Since the amplitude effect was more pronounced on trials when go signals were followed by fast than slow reactions, it probably reflected a stronger set to produce fast responses. N2 and P3 components to stop signals were observed to be larger and of longer latency when stop signals occurred less frequently. The amplitude enhancement of these N2 and P3 components were more pronounced for unsuccessful than for successful stop-signal trials. Moreover, the successfully inhibited stop trials elicited a frontocentral P3 whereas unsuccessfully inhibited stop trials elicited a more posterior P3 that resembled the classical P3b. P3 amplitude in the unsuccessfully inhibited condition also differed between waveforms synchronized with the stop signal and waveforms synchronized with response onset whereas N2 amplitude did not. Taken together these findings suggest that N2 reflected a greater significance of failed inhibitions after low probability stop signals while P3 reflected continued processing of the erroneous response after response execution.

Epidemiology of HPV 16 and Cervical Cancer in Finland and the Potential Impact of Vaccination: Mathematical Modelling Analyses

PubMed Central

Barnabas, Ruanne V; Laukkanen, Päivi; Koskela, Pentti; Kontula, Osmo; Lehtinen, Matti; Garnett, Geoff P

2006-01-01

Background Candidate human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have demonstrated almost 90%-100% efficacy in preventing persistent, type-specific HPV infection over 18 mo in clinical trials. If these vaccines go on to demonstrate prevention of precancerous lesions in phase III clinical trials, they will be licensed for public use in the near future. How these vaccines will be used in countries with national cervical cancer screening programmes is an important question. Methods and Findings We developed a transmission model of HPV 16 infection and progression to cervical cancer and calibrated it to Finnish HPV 16 seroprevalence over time. The model was used to estimate the transmission probability of the virus, to look at the effect of changes in patterns of sexual behaviour and smoking on age-specific trends in cancer incidence, and to explore the impact of HPV 16 vaccination. We estimated a high per-partnership transmission probability of HPV 16, of 0.6. The modelling analyses showed that changes in sexual behaviour and smoking accounted, in part, for the increase seen in cervical cancer incidence in 35- to 39-y-old women from 1990 to 1999. At both low (10% in opportunistic immunisation) and high (90% in a national immunisation programme) coverage of the adolescent population, vaccinating women and men had little benefit over vaccinating women alone. We estimate that vaccinating 90% of young women before sexual debut has the potential to decrease HPV type-specific (e.g., type 16) cervical cancer incidence by 91%. If older women are more likely to have persistent infections and progress to cancer, then vaccination with a duration of protection of less than 15 y could result in an older susceptible cohort and no decrease in cancer incidence. While vaccination has the potential to significantly reduce type-specific cancer incidence, its combination with screening further improves cancer prevention. Conclusions HPV vaccination has the potential to significantly decrease HPV type-specific cervical cancer incidence. High vaccine coverage of women alone, sustained over many decades, with a long duration of vaccine-conferred protection, would have the greatest impact on type-specific cancer incidence. This level of coverage could be achieved through national coordinated programmes, with surveillance to detect cancers caused by nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types. PMID:16573364

[Clinical Advantages and Acupoint Selection of Treatment of Chronic Functional Constipation with Acupuncture Therapy].

PubMed

Yu, Zhi; Xu, Bin

2016-08-25

Abundant clinical practice has showed that acupuncture therapy has some distinct advantages in the treatment of chronic functional constipation (CFC), such as faster positive effect, shorter course of treatment, long-term post-effect, etc. In the present paper, the authors reviewed progresses of researches in clinical treatment of CFC with acupuncture therapy in recent years. Results of clinical trials indicated that among the 3 types (slow transit, outlet obstruction and mixed type) of constipation, acupuncture therapy showed a better effect for slow transit constipation by improving severity, increasing defecation frequency, reducing abdominal distension, easing patients' psychological discomfort and raising daily life activity, probably by ameliorating colonic motility, enteric nervous system function and neurotransmitter secretion (vasoactive intestinal peptide, acetylcholine, substance P, nitrix oxide,etc.). Most of the chosen acupoints (ST 25, SP 15, SP 14, CV 6, BL 25, BL 23, etc.) are located in the projection region of colon. For outlet obstruction defecation, the effect of acupuncture is relatively better for chalasia type, in spite of generally being poorer in the efficacy. Majority of the selected acupoints (GV 1, BL 32, BL 33, BL 30, etc.)are located near the pelvic floor region. In addition, the clinical therapeutic effects of acupuncture need being confirmed by more large sample, multiple centers randomized controlled trials.

Cost-effectiveness of external cephalic version for term breech presentation

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background External cephalic version (ECV) is recommended by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists to convert a breech fetus to vertex position and reduce the need for cesarean delivery. The goal of this study was to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, from society's perspective, of ECV compared to scheduled cesarean for term breech presentation. Methods A computer-based decision model (TreeAge Pro 2008, Tree Age Software, Inc.) was developed for a hypothetical base case parturient presenting with a term singleton breech fetus with no contraindications for vaginal delivery. The model incorporated actual hospital costs (e.g., $8,023 for cesarean and $5,581 for vaginal delivery), utilities to quantify health-related quality of life, and probabilities based on analysis of published literature of successful ECV trial, spontaneous reversion, mode of delivery, and need for unanticipated emergency cesarean delivery. The primary endpoint was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in dollars per quality-adjusted year of life gained. A threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) was used to determine cost-effectiveness. Results The incremental cost-effectiveness of ECV, assuming a baseline 58% success rate, equaled $7,900/QALY. If the estimated probability of successful ECV is less than 32%, then ECV costs more to society and has poorer QALYs for the patient. However, as the probability of successful ECV was between 32% and 63%, ECV cost more than cesarean delivery but with greater associated QALY such that the cost-effectiveness ratio was less than $50,000/QALY. If the probability of successful ECV was greater than 63%, the computer modeling indicated that a trial of ECV is less costly and with better QALYs than a scheduled cesarean. The cost-effectiveness of a trial of ECV is most sensitive to its probability of success, and not to the probabilities of a cesarean after ECV, spontaneous reversion to breech, successful second ECV trial, or adverse outcome from emergency cesarean. Conclusions From society's perspective, ECV trial is cost-effective when compared to a scheduled cesarean for breech presentation provided the probability of successful ECV is > 32%. Improved algorithms are needed to more precisely estimate the likelihood that a patient will have a successful ECV. PMID:20092630

Cognitive function, dementia and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the elderly.

PubMed

Strachan, Mark W J; Reynolds, Rebecca M; Marioni, Riccardo E; Price, Jacqueline F

2011-02-01

Increasing numbers of people are developing type 2 diabetes mellitus, but interventions to prevent and treat the classic microvascular and macrovascular complications have improved, so that people are living longer with the condition. This trend means that novel complications of type 2 diabetes mellitus, which are not targeted by current management strategies, could start to emerge. Cognitive impairment and dementia could come into this category. Type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with a 1.5-2.5-fold increased risk of dementia. The etiology of dementia and cognitive impairment in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus is probably multifactorial. Chronic hyperglycemia is implicated, perhaps by promoting the development of cerebral microvascular disease. Data suggest that the brains of older people with type 2 diabetes mellitus might be vulnerable to the effects of recurrent, severe hypoglycemia. Other possible moderators of cognitive function include inflammatory mediators, rheological factors and dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis. Cognitive function should now be included as a standard end point in randomized trials of therapeutic interventions in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

The Stochastic Early Reaction, Inhibition, and late Action (SERIA) model for antisaccades

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The antisaccade task is a classic paradigm used to study the voluntary control of eye movements. It requires participants to suppress a reactive eye movement to a visual target and to concurrently initiate a saccade in the opposite direction. Although several models have been proposed to explain error rates and reaction times in this task, no formal model comparison has yet been performed. Here, we describe a Bayesian modeling approach to the antisaccade task that allows us to formally compare different models on the basis of their evidence. First, we provide a formal likelihood function of actions (pro- and antisaccades) and reaction times based on previously published models. Second, we introduce the Stochastic Early Reaction, Inhibition, and late Action model (SERIA), a novel model postulating two different mechanisms that interact in the antisaccade task: an early GO/NO-GO race decision process and a late GO/GO decision process. Third, we apply these models to a data set from an experiment with three mixed blocks of pro- and antisaccade trials. Bayesian model comparison demonstrates that the SERIA model explains the data better than competing models that do not incorporate a late decision process. Moreover, we show that the early decision process postulated by the SERIA model is, to a large extent, insensitive to the cue presented in a single trial. Finally, we use parameter estimates to demonstrate that changes in reaction time and error rate due to the probability of a trial type (pro- or antisaccade) are best explained by faster or slower inhibition and the probability of generating late voluntary prosaccades. PMID:28767650

Presentation and outcomes of "wake-up strokes" in a large randomized stroke trial: analysis of data from the International Stroke Trial.

PubMed

Moradiya, Yogesh; Janjua, Nazli

2013-11-01

Recent studies comparing the outcomes of wake-up stroke (WUS) and stroke while awake (SWA) patients reveal better outcomes among SWA patients, attributable in part to their higher rates of thrombolysis. Patients with WUS are largely excluded from therapy. Earlier analyses, conducted before the approval of alteplase for acute stroke, show the true divergence of natural histories between these 2 groups. We analyzed 17,398 patients with ischemic stroke from the International Stroke Trial and compared both presentations and outcomes between the WUS and SWA groups. Severity was assessed by level of consciousness, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) stroke classification, number of neurologic deficits, and predicted probability of dependency or death. Outcomes were assessed at day 14 and at 6 months. Outcome assessments were controlled for potential confounders. WUS represented 29.6% of all ischemic strokes. More severe OSCP stroke type (total anterior circulation syndrome) was less common in WUS. Although more patients with WUS were alert at presentation with a lower predicted probability of dependency, the 14-day mortality rates and rates of poor outcome at 6 months were similar between the 2 groups. WUS patients comprise one quarter to one third of ischemic stroke patients. Despite their more benign presentations, they deteriorate to outcome rates similar to SWA. Although they are typically excluded from time-dependent acute interventions, patients with WUS may benefit from acute intervention to prevent this worsening natural history. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

2013-01-01

In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Some challenges with statistical inference in adaptive designs.

PubMed

Hung, H M James; Wang, Sue-Jane; Yang, Peiling

2014-01-01

Adaptive designs have generated a great deal of attention to clinical trial communities. The literature contains many statistical methods to deal with added statistical uncertainties concerning the adaptations. Increasingly encountered in regulatory applications are adaptive statistical information designs that allow modification of sample size or related statistical information and adaptive selection designs that allow selection of doses or patient populations during the course of a clinical trial. For adaptive statistical information designs, a few statistical testing methods are mathematically equivalent, as a number of articles have stipulated, but arguably there are large differences in their practical ramifications. We pinpoint some undesirable features of these methods in this work. For adaptive selection designs, the selection based on biomarker data for testing the correlated clinical endpoints may increase statistical uncertainty in terms of type I error probability, and most importantly the increased statistical uncertainty may be impossible to assess.

Joint symbolic dynamic analysis of cardiorespiratory interactions in patients on weaning trials.

PubMed

Caminal, P; Giraldo, B; Zabaleta, H; Vallverdu, M; Benito, S; Ballesteros, D; Lopez-Rodriguez, L; Esteban, A; Baumert, M; Voss, A

2005-01-01

Assessing autonomic control provides information about patho-physiological imbalances. Measures of variability of the cardiac interbeat duration RR(n) and the variability of the breath duration TTot(n) are sensitive to those changes. The interactions between RR(n) and TTot(n) are complex and strongly non-linear. A study of joint symbolic dynamics is presented as a new short-term non-linear analysis method to investigate these interactions in patients on weaning trials. 78 patients from mechanical ventilation are studied: Group A (patients that failed to maintain spontaneous breathing and were reconnected) and Group B (patients with successful trials). Using the concept of joint symbolic dynamics, cardiac and respiratory changes were transformed into a word series, and the probability of occurrence of each word type was calculated and compared between both groups. Significant differences were found in 13 words, and the most significant pn(Wc010, r010): 0.0041 ± 0.0036 (group A) against 0.0012 ± 0.0024 (group B), p-value = 0.00001. The number of seldom occurring word types (forbidden words) also presents significant differences fwcr: 6.9 ± 6.6 against 13.5 ± 5.3, p-value = 0.00004. Joint symbolic dynamics provides an efficient non-linear representation of cardiorespiratory interactions that offers simple physiological interpretations.

Cost effectiveness of group follow-up after structured education for type 1 diabetes: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Gillespie, Paddy; O'Shea, Eamon; O'Hara, Mary Clare; Dinneen, Sean F

2014-06-14

This study examines the cost effectiveness of group follow-up after participation in the Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) structured education programme for type 1 diabetes. Economic evaluation conducted alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial involving 437 adults with type 1 diabetes in Ireland. Group follow-up involved two group education 'booster' sessions post-DAFNE. Individual follow-up involved two standard one-to-one hospital clinic visits. Incremental costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and cost effectiveness were estimated at 18 months. Uncertainty was explored using sensitivity analysis and by estimating cost effectiveness acceptability curves. Group follow-up was associated with a mean reduction in QALYs gained of 0.04 per patient (P value, 0.052; 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.01, intra-class correlation (ICC), 0.033) and a mean reduction in total healthcare costs of €772 (P value, 0.020; 95% CI, -1,415 to -128: ICC, 0.016) per patient. At alternative threshold values of €5,000, €15,000, €25,000, €35,000, and €45,000, the probability of group follow-up being cost effective was estimated to be 1.000, 0.762, 0.204, 0.078, and 0.033 respectively. The results do not support implementation of group follow-up as the sole means of follow-up post-DAFNE. Given the reported cost savings, future studies should explore the cost effectiveness of alternative models of group care for diabetes. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN79759174 (assigned: 9 February 2007).

Bernoulli, Darwin, and Sagan: the probability of life on other planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossmo, D. Kim

2017-04-01

The recent discovery that billions of planets in the Milky Way Galaxy may be in circumstellar habitable zones has renewed speculation over the possibility of extraterrestrial life. The Drake equation is a probabilistic framework for estimating the number of technological advanced civilizations in our Galaxy; however, many of the equation's component probabilities are either unknown or have large error intervals. In this paper, a different method of examining this question is explored, one that replaces the various Drake factors with the single estimate for the probability of life existing on Earth. This relationship can be described by the binomial distribution if the presence of life on a given number of planets is equated to successes in a Bernoulli trial. The question of exoplanet life may then be reformulated as follows - given the probability of one or more independent successes for a given number of trials, what is the probability of two or more successes? Some of the implications of this approach for finding life on exoplanets are discussed.

Reward-Dependent Modulation of Movement Variability

PubMed Central

Izawa, Jun; Shadmehr, Reza

2015-01-01

Movement variability is often considered an unwanted byproduct of a noisy nervous system. However, variability can signal a form of implicit exploration, indicating that the nervous system is intentionally varying the motor commands in search of actions that yield the greatest success. Here, we investigated the role of the human basal ganglia in controlling reward-dependent motor variability as measured by trial-to-trial changes in performance during a reaching task. We designed an experiment in which the only performance feedback was success or failure and quantified how reach variability was modulated as a function of the probability of reward. In healthy controls, reach variability increased as the probability of reward decreased. Control of variability depended on the history of past rewards, with the largest trial-to-trial changes occurring immediately after an unrewarded trial. In contrast, in participants with Parkinson's disease, a known example of basal ganglia dysfunction, reward was a poor modulator of variability; that is, the patients showed an impaired ability to increase variability in response to decreases in the probability of reward. This was despite the fact that, after rewarded trials, reach variability in the patients was comparable to healthy controls. In summary, we found that movement variability is partially a form of exploration driven by the recent history of rewards. When the function of the human basal ganglia is compromised, the reward-dependent control of movement variability is impaired, particularly affecting the ability to increase variability after unsuccessful outcomes. PMID:25740529

Types of Cancer Clinical Trials

Cancer.gov

Information about the several types of cancer clinical trials, including treatment trials, prevention trials, screening trials, supportive and palliative care trials. Each type of trial is designed to answer different research questions.

Impact of Alternative Medical Device Approval Processes on Costs and Health

PubMed Central

George, Benjamin P.; Venkataraman, Vinayak; Dorsey, E. Ray

2014-01-01

Background Medical devices are often introduced prior to randomized‐trial evidence of efficacy and this slows completion of trials. Alternative regulatory approaches include restricting device use outside of trials prior to trial evidence of efficacy (like the drug approval process) or restricting out‐of‐trial use but permitting coverage within trials such as Medicare's Coverage with Study Participation (CSP). Methods We compared the financial impact to manufacturers and insurers of three regulatory alternatives: (1) limited regulation (current approach), (2) CSP, and (3) restrictive regulation (like the current drug approval process). Using data for patent foramen ovale closure devices, we modeled key parameters including recruitment time, probability of device efficacy, market adoption, and device cost/price to calculate profits to manufacturers, costs to insurers, and overall societal impact on health. Results For manufacturers, profits were greatest under CSP—driven by faster market adoption of effective devices—followed by restrictive regulation. Societal health benefit in total quality‐adjusted life years was greatest under CSP. Insurers’ expenditures for ineffective devices were greatest with limited regulation. Findings were robust over a reasonable range of probabilities of trial success. Conclusions Regulation restricting out‐of‐trial device use and extending limited insurance coverage to clinical trial participants may balance manufacturer and societal interests. PMID:25185975

Effect of variability of sequence length of go trials preceding a stop trial on ability of response inhibition in stop-signal task.

PubMed

Hiraoka, Koichi; Kinoshita, Atsushi; Kunimura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Masakazu

2018-05-31

This study investigated whether the variability of the sequence length of the go trials preceding a stop trial enhanced or interfered with inhibitory control. The hypotheses tested were either inhibitory control improves when the sequence length of the go trials varies as a consequence of increased preparatory effort or it degrades as a consequence of the switching cost from the go trial to the stop trial. The right-handed participants abducted the left or right index finger in response to a go cue during the go trials. A stop cue was given at 50, 90, or 130 ms after the go cue, with 0.25 probability in the stop trial. In the less variable session, a stop trial was presented after two, three, or four consecutive go trials. In the variable session, a stop trial was presented after one, two, three, four, or five consecutive go trials. The reaction time and stop-signal reaction time were not significantly different between the sessions and between the response sides. Nevertheless, the probability of successful inhibition of the right-hand response in the variable session was higher than that in the less variable session when the stop cue was given 50 ms after a go cue. This finding supports the view that preparatory effort due to less predictability of the chance of a forthcoming response inhibition enhances the ability of the right-hand response inhibition when the stop process begins earlier.

COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF STRUCTURED EDUCATION IN CHILDREN WITH TYPE-1 DIABETES MELLITUS.

PubMed

Basarir, Hasan; Brennan, Alan; Jacques, Richard; Pollard, Daniel; Stevens, Katherine; Freeman, Jennifer; Wales, Jerry; Price, Katherine

2016-01-01

Kids in Control OF Food (KICk-OFF) is a 5-day structured education program for 11- to 16-year-olds with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) who are using multiple daily insulin injections. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of the KICk-OFF education program compared with the usual care using data from the KICk-OFF trial. The short-term within-trial analysis covers the 2-year postintervention period. Data on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), severe hypoglycemia, and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) were collected over a 2-year follow-up period. Sub-group analyses have been defined on the basis of baseline HbA1c being below 7.5 percent (58.5 mmol/mol) (low group), between 7.5 percent and 9.5 percent (80.3 mmol/mol) (medium group), and over 9.5 percent (high group). The long-term cost-effectiveness evaluation has been conducted by using The Sheffield Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model, which is a patient-level simulation model on T1DM. It includes long-term microvascular (retinopathy, neuropathy, and nephropathy) and macrovascular (myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization, and angina) diabetes-related complications and acute adverse events (severe hypoglycemia and DKA). The most favorable within-trial scenario for the KICk-OFF arm led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £23,688 (base year 2009) with a cost-effectiveness probability of 41.3 percent. Simulating the long-term complications using the full cohort data, the mean ICER for the base case was £28,813 (base year 2011) and the probability of the KICk-OFF intervention being cost-effective at £20,000/QALY threshold was 42.6 percent, with considerable variation due to treatment effect duration. For the high HbA1c sub-group, the KICk-OFF arm was "dominant" (meaning it provided better health gains at lower costs than usual care) over the usual care arm in each scenario considered. For the whole study population, the cost-effectiveness of KICk-OFF depends on the assumption for treatment effect duration. For the high baseline HbA1c sub-group, KICk-OFF arm was estimated to be dominant over the usual care arm regardless of the assumption on the treatment effect duration.

The effect of albendazole treatment on seizure outcomes in patients with symptomatic neurocysticercosis.

PubMed

Romo, Matthew L; Wyka, Katarzyna; Carpio, Arturo; Leslie, Denise; Andrews, Howard; Bagiella, Emilia; Hauser, W Allen; Kelvin, Elizabeth A

2015-11-01

Randomized controlled trials have found an inconsistent effect of anthelmintic treatment on long-term seizure outcomes in neurocysticercosis. The objective of this study was to further explore the effect of albendazole treatment on long-term seizure outcomes and to determine if there is evidence for a differential effect by seizure type. In this trial, 178 patients with active or transitional neurocysticercosis cysts and new-onset symptoms were randomized to 8 days of treatment with albendazole (n=88) or placebo (n=90), both with prednisone, and followed for 24 months. We used negative binomial regression and logistic regression models to determine the effect of albendazole on the number of seizures and probability of recurrent or new-onset seizures, respectively, over follow-up. Treatment with albendazole was associated with a reduction in the number of seizures during 24 months of follow-up, but this was only significant for generalized seizures during months 1-12 (unadjusted rate ratio [RR] 0.19; 95% CI: 0.04-0.91) and months 1-24 (unadjusted RR 0.06; 95% CI: 0.01-0.57). We did not detect a significant effect of albendazole on reducing the number of focal seizures or on the probability of having a seizure, regardless of seizure type or time period. Albendazole treatment may be associated with some symptomatic improvement; however, this association seems to be specific to generalized seizures. Future research is needed to identify strategies to better reduce long-term seizure burden in patients with neurocysticercosis. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Long-term valacyclovir suppressive treatment after herpes simplex virus type 2 meningitis: a double-blind, randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Aurelius, E; Franzen-Röhl, E; Glimåker, M; Akre, O; Grillner, L; Jorup-Rönström, C; Studahl, M

2012-05-01

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is a common cause of acute and recurrent aseptic meningitis. Our aim was to determine the impact of antiviral suppression on recurrence of meningitis and to delineate the full spectrum of neurological complications. One hundred and one patients with acute primary or recurrent HSV-2 meningitis were assigned to placebo (n = 51) or 0.5 g of valacyclovir twice daily (n = 50) for 1 year after initial treatment with 1 g of valacyclovir 3 times daily for 1 week in a prospective, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial. The primary outcome was time until recurrence of meningitis. The patients were followed up for 2 years. The first year, no significant difference was found between the valacyclovir and placebo groups. The second year, without study drugs, the risk of recurrence of verified and probable HSV-2 meningitis was significantly higher among patients exposed to valacyclovir (hazard ratio, 3.29 [95% confidence interval, 10.06-10.21]). One-third of the patients experienced 1-4 meningitis episodes during the study period. A considerable morbidity rate, comprising symptoms from the central, peripheral, and autonomous nervous system, was found in both groups. Suppressive treatment with 0.5 g of valacyclovir twice daily was not shown to prohibit recurrent meningitis and cannot be recommended for this purpose after HSV meningitis in general. Protection against mucocutaneous lesions was observed, but the dosage was probably inappropriate for the prevention of HSV activation in the central nervous system. The higher frequency of meningitis, after cessation of active drug, could be interpreted as a rebound phenomenon.

Probability of atrial fibrillation after ablation: Using a parametric nonlinear temporal decomposition mixed effects model.

PubMed

Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Blackstone, Eugene H; Ehrlinger, John; Li, Liang; Ishwaran, Hemant; Parides, Michael K

2018-01-01

Atrial fibrillation is an arrhythmic disorder where the electrical signals of the heart become irregular. The probability of atrial fibrillation (binary response) is often time varying in a structured fashion, as is the influence of associated risk factors. A generalized nonlinear mixed effects model is presented to estimate the time-related probability of atrial fibrillation using a temporal decomposition approach to reveal the pattern of the probability of atrial fibrillation and their determinants. This methodology generalizes to patient-specific analysis of longitudinal binary data with possibly time-varying effects of covariates and with different patient-specific random effects influencing different temporal phases. The motivation and application of this model is illustrated using longitudinally measured atrial fibrillation data obtained through weekly trans-telephonic monitoring from an NIH sponsored clinical trial being conducted by the Cardiothoracic Surgery Clinical Trials Network.

The influence of working memory on the anger superiority effect.

PubMed

Moriya, Jun; Koster, Ernst H W; De Raedt, Rudi

2014-01-01

The anger superiority effect shows that an angry face is detected more efficiently than a happy face. However, it is still controversial whether attentional allocation to angry faces is a bottom-up process or not. We investigated whether the anger superiority effect is influenced by top-down control, especially working memory (WM). Participants remembered a colour and then searched for differently coloured facial expressions. Just holding the colour information in WM did not modulate the anger superiority effect. However, when increasing the probabilities of trials in which the colour of a target face matched the colour held in WM, participants were inclined to direct attention to the target face regardless of the facial expression. Moreover, the knowledge of high probability of valid trials eliminated the anger superiority effect. These results suggest that the anger superiority effect is modulated by top-down effects of WM, the probability of events and expectancy about these probabilities.

Design considerations and analysis planning of a phase 2a proof of concept study in rheumatoid arthritis in the presence of possible non-monotonicity.

PubMed

Liu, Feng; Walters, Stephen J; Julious, Steven A

2017-10-02

It is important to quantify the dose response for a drug in phase 2a clinical trials so the optimal doses can then be selected for subsequent late phase trials. In a phase 2a clinical trial of new lead drug being developed for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a U-shaped dose response curve was observed. In the light of this result further research was undertaken to design an efficient phase 2a proof of concept (PoC) trial for a follow-on compound using the lessons learnt from the lead compound. The planned analysis for the Phase 2a trial for GSK123456 was a Bayesian Emax model which assumes the dose-response relationship follows a monotonic sigmoid "S" shaped curve. This model was found to be suboptimal to model the U-shaped dose response observed in the data from this trial and alternatives approaches were needed to be considered for the next compound for which a Normal dynamic linear model (NDLM) is proposed. This paper compares the statistical properties of the Bayesian Emax model and NDLM model and both models are evaluated using simulation in the context of adaptive Phase 2a PoC design under a variety of assumed dose response curves: linear, Emax model, U-shaped model, and flat response. It is shown that the NDLM method is flexible and can handle a wide variety of dose-responses, including monotonic and non-monotonic relationships. In comparison to the NDLM model the Emax model excelled with higher probability of selecting ED90 and smaller average sample size, when the true dose response followed Emax like curve. In addition, the type I error, probability of incorrectly concluding a drug may work when it does not, is inflated with the Bayesian NDLM model in all scenarios which would represent a development risk to pharmaceutical company. The bias, which is the difference between the estimated effect from the Emax and NDLM models and the simulated value, is comparable if the true dose response follows a placebo like curve, an Emax like curve, or log linear shape curve under fixed dose allocation, no adaptive allocation, half adaptive and adaptive scenarios. The bias though is significantly increased for the Emax model if the true dose response follows a U-shaped curve. In most cases the Bayesian Emax model works effectively and efficiently, with low bias and good probability of success in case of monotonic dose response. However, if there is a belief that the dose response could be non-monotonic then the NDLM is the superior model to assess the dose response.

A generalized concept of power helped to choose optimal endpoints in clinical trials.

PubMed

Borm, George F; van der Wilt, Gert J; Kremer, Jan A M; Zielhuis, Gerhard A

2007-04-01

A clinical trial may have multiple objectives. Sometimes the results for several parameters may need to be significant or meet certain other criteria. In such cases, it is important to evaluate the probability that all these objectives will be met, rather than the probability that each will be met. The purpose of this article is to introduce a definition of power that is tailored to handle this situation and that is helpful for the design of such trials. We introduce a generalized concept of power. It can handle complex situations, for example, in which there is a logical combination of partial objectives. These may be formulated not only in terms of statistical tests and of confidence intervals, but also in nonstatistical terms, such as "selecting the optimal by dose." The power of a trial was calculated for various objectives and combinations of objectives. The generalized concept of power may lead to power calculations that closely match the objectives of the trial and contribute to choosing more efficient endpoints and designs.

Fast adaptation of the internal model of gravity for manual interceptions: evidence for event-dependent learning.

PubMed

Zago, Myrka; Bosco, Gianfranco; Maffei, Vincenzo; Iosa, Marco; Ivanenko, Yuri P; Lacquaniti, Francesco

2005-02-01

We studied how subjects learn to deal with two conflicting sensory environments as a function of the probability of each environment and the temporal distance between repeated events. Subjects were asked to intercept a visual target moving downward on a screen with randomized laws of motion. We compared five protocols that differed in the probability of constant speed (0g) targets and accelerated (1g) targets. Probability ranged from 9 to 100%, and the time interval between consecutive repetitions of the same target ranged from about 1 to 20 min. We found that subjects systematically timed their responses consistent with the assumption of gravity effects, for both 1 and 0g trials. With training, subjects rapidly adapted to 0g targets by shifting the time of motor activation. Surprisingly, the adaptation rate was independent of both the probability of 0g targets and their temporal distance. Very few 0g trials sporadically interspersed as catch trials during immersive practice with 1g trials were sufficient for learning and consolidation in long-term memory, as verified by retesting after 24 h. We argue that the memory store for adapted states of the internal gravity model is triggered by individual events and can be sustained for prolonged periods of time separating sporadic repetitions. This form of event-related learning could depend on multiple-stage memory, with exponential rise and decay in the initial stages followed by a sample-and-hold module.

Twelve- to 14-Month-Old Infants Can Predict Single-Event Probability with Large Set Sizes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denison, Stephanie; Xu, Fei

2010-01-01

Previous research has revealed that infants can reason correctly about single-event probabilities with small but not large set sizes (Bonatti, 2008; Teglas "et al.", 2007). The current study asks whether infants can make predictions regarding single-event probability with large set sizes using a novel procedure. Infants completed two trials: A…

Lubiprostone: in constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome.

PubMed

Carter, Natalie J; Scott, Lesley J

2009-06-18

Lubiprostone is an oral bicyclic fatty acid that selectively activates type 2 chloride channels in the apical membrane of human gastrointestinal epithelial cells, thereby increasing chloride-rich fluid secretion. Although the mechanism is unclear, this may then decrease intestinal transit time, allowing the passage of stool and alleviating symptoms of constipation. Oral lubiprostone was effective in the treatment of patients with constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-C) in large (n = 193-583) phase II (dose-finding) and phase III randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trials. The number of patients with IBS-C demonstrating an overall response to treatment (primary endpoint) in the two phase III trials was significantly greater in patients receiving lubiprostone 8 microg twice daily for 3 months than in those receiving placebo. In addition, a randomized, 4-week withdrawal period at the end of one of the phase III trials demonstrated that discontinuation of lubiprostone was not associated with rebound of IBS symptoms. Lubiprostone was generally well tolerated in clinical trials, with the majority of adverse events being of mild to moderate severity. In patients with IBS-C who received lubiprostone 8 microg twice daily, nausea was the most frequently occurring adverse event that was considered possibly or probably treatment related. No serious treatment-related adverse events were reported in a 36-week open-label extension to the phase III trials.

Words or numbers? Communicating risk of adverse effects in written consumer health information: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Büchter, Roland Brian; Fechtelpeter, Dennis; Knelangen, Marco; Ehrlich, Martina; Waltering, Andreas

2014-08-26

Various types of framing can influence risk perceptions, which may have an impact on treatment decisions and adherence. One way of framing is the use of verbal terms in communicating the probabilities of treatment effects. We systematically reviewed the comparative effects of words versus numbers in communicating the probability of adverse effects to consumers in written health information. Nine electronic databases were searched up to November 2012. Teams of two reviewers independently assessed studies. randomised controlled trials; verbal versus numerical presentation; context: written consumer health information. Ten trials were included. Participants perceived probabilities presented in verbal terms as higher than in numeric terms: commonly used verbal descriptors systematically led to an overestimation of the absolute risk of adverse effects (Range of means: 3% - 54%). Numbers also led to an overestimation of probabilities, but the overestimation was smaller (2% - 20%). The difference in means ranged from 3.8% to 45.9%, with all but one comparison showing significant results. Use of numbers increased satisfaction with the information (MD: 0.48 [CI: 0.32 to 0.63], p < 0.00001, I2 = 0%) and likelihood of medication use (MD for very common side effects: 1.45 [CI: 0.78 to 2.11], p = 0.0001, I2 = 68%; MD for common side effects: 0.90 [CI: 0.61 to 1.19], p < 0.00001, I2 = 1%; MD for rare side effects: 0.39 [0.02 to 0.76], p = 0.04, I2 = not applicable). Outcomes were measured on a 6-point Likert scale, suggesting small to moderate effects. Verbal descriptors including "common", "uncommon" and "rare" lead to an overestimation of the probability of adverse effects compared to numerical information, if used as previously suggested by the European Commission. Numbers result in more accurate estimates and increase satisfaction and likelihood of medication use. Our review suggests that providers of consumer health information should quantify treatment effects numerically. Future research should focus on the impact of personal and contextual factors, use representative samples or be conducted in real life settings, measure behavioral outcomes and address whether benefit information can be described verbally.

Clinical variables associated with recovery in patients with chronic tension-type headache after treatment with manual therapy.

PubMed

Castien, René F; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Blankenstein, Annette H; Heymans, Martijn W; Dekker, Joost

2012-04-01

The aims of this study were to describe the course of chronic tension-type headache (CTTH) in participants receiving manual therapy (MT), and to develop a prognostic model for predicting recovery in participants receiving MT. Outcomes in 145 adults with CTTH who received MT as participants in a previously published randomised clinical trial (n=41) or in a prospective cohort study (n=104) were evaluated. Assessments were made at baseline and at 8 and 26 weeks of follow-up. Recovery was defined as a 50% reduction in headache days in combination with a score of 'much improved' or 'very much improved' for global perceived improvement. Potential prognostic factors were analyzed by univariable and multivariable regression analysis. After 8 weeks 78% of the participants reported recovery after MT, and after 26 weeks the frequency of recovered participants was 73%. Prognostic factors related to recovery were co-existing migraine, absence of multiple-site pain, greater cervical range of motion and higher headache intensity. In participants classified as being likely to be recovered, the posterior probability for recovery at 8 weeks was 92%, whereas for those being classified at low probability of recovery this posterior probability was 61%. It is concluded that the course of CTTH is favourable in primary care patients receiving MT. The prognostic models provide additional information to improve prediction of outcome. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Timely and complete publication of economic evaluations alongside randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Thorn, Joanna C; Noble, Sian M; Hollingworth, William

2013-01-01

Little is known about the extent and nature of publication bias in economic evaluations. Our objective was to determine whether economic evaluations are subject to publication bias by considering whether economic data are as likely to be reported, and reported as promptly, as effectiveness data. Trials that intended to conduct an economic analysis and ended before 2008 were identified in the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) register; a random sample of 100 trials was retrieved. Fifty comparator trials were randomly drawn from those not identified as intending to conduct an economic study. The trial start and end dates, estimated sample size and funder type were extracted. For trials planning economic evaluations, effectiveness and economic publications were sought; publication dates and journal impact factors were extracted. Effectiveness abstracts were assessed for whether they reached a firm conclusion that one intervention was most effective. Primary investigators were contacted about reasons for non-publication of results, or reasons for differential publication strategies for effectiveness and economic results. Trials planning an economic study were more likely to be funded by government (p = 0.01) and larger (p = 0.003) than other trials. The trials planning an economic evaluation had a mean of 6.5 (range 2.7-13.2) years since the trial end in which to publish their results. Effectiveness results were reported by 70 %, while only 43 % published economic evaluations (p < 0.001). Reasons for non-publication of economic results included the intervention being ineffective, and staffing issues. Funding source, time since trial end and length of study were not associated with a higher probability of publishing the economic evaluation. However, studies that were small or of unknown size were significantly less likely to publish economic evaluations than large studies (p < 0.001). The authors' confidence in labelling one intervention clearly most effective did not affect the probability of publication. The mean time to publication was 0.7 years longer for cost-effectiveness data than for effectiveness data where both were published (p = 0.001). The median journal impact factor was 1.6 points higher for effectiveness publications than for the corresponding economic publications (p = 0.01). Reasons for publishing in different journals included editorial decision making and the additional time that economic evaluation takes to conduct. Trials that intend to conduct an economic analysis are less likely to report economic data than effectiveness data. Where economic results do appear, they are published later, and in journals with lower impact factors. These results suggest that economic output may be more susceptible than effectiveness data to publication bias. Funders, grant reviewers and trialists themselves should ensure economic evaluations are prioritized and adequately staffed to avoid potential problems with bias.

The External Validity of Prediction Models for the Diagnosis of Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With Stable Chest Pain: Insights From the PROMISE Trial.

PubMed

Genders, Tessa S S; Coles, Adrian; Hoffmann, Udo; Patel, Manesh R; Mark, Daniel B; Lee, Kerry L; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Hunink, M G Myriam; Douglas, Pamela S

2018-03-01

This study sought to externally validate prediction models for the presence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). A better assessment of the probability of CAD may improve the identification of patients who benefit from noninvasive testing. Stable chest pain patients from the PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) trial with computed tomography angiography (CTA) or invasive coronary angiography (ICA) were included. The authors assumed that patients with CTA showing 0% stenosis and a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 were free of obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis) on ICA, and they multiply imputed missing ICA results based on clinical variables and CTA results. Predicted CAD probabilities were calculated using published coefficients for 3 models: basic model (age, sex, chest pain type), clinical model (basic model + diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and smoking), and clinical + CAC score model. The authors assessed discrimination and calibration, and compared published effects with observed predictor effects. In 3,468 patients (1,805 women; mean 60 years of age; 779 [23%] with obstructive CAD on CTA), the models demonstrated moderate-good discrimination, with C-statistics of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67 to 0.72), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69 to 0.74), and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.85 to 0.88) for the basic, clinical, and clinical + CAC score models, respectively. Calibration was satisfactory although typical chest pain and diabetes were less predictive and CAC score was more predictive than was suggested by the models. Among the 31% of patients for whom the clinical model predicted a low (≤10%) probability of CAD, actual prevalence was 7%; among the 48% for whom the clinical + CAC score model predicted a low probability the observed prevalence was 2%. In 2 sensitivity analyses excluding imputed data, similar results were obtained using CTA as the outcome, whereas in those who underwent ICA the models significantly underestimated CAD probability. Existing clinical prediction models can identify patients with a low probability of obstructive CAD. Obstructive CAD on ICA was imputed for 61% of patients; hence, further validation is necessary. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statin Treatment and Clinical Outcomes of Heart Failure Among Africans: An Inverse Probability Treatment Weighted Analysis.

PubMed

Bonsu, Kwadwo Osei; Owusu, Isaac Kofi; Buabeng, Kwame Ohene; Reidpath, Daniel D; Kadirvelu, Amudha

2017-04-01

Randomized control trials of statins have not demonstrated significant benefits in outcomes of heart failure (HF). However, randomized control trials may not always be generalizable. The aim was to determine whether statin and statin type-lipophilic or -hydrophilic improve long-term outcomes in Africans with HF. This was a retrospective longitudinal study of HF patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized at a tertiary healthcare center between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 in Ghana. Patients were eligible if they were discharged from first admission for HF (index admission) and followed up to time of all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality or end of study. Multivariable time-dependent Cox model and inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting of marginal structural model were used to estimate associations between statin treatment and outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios were also estimated for lipophilic and hydrophilic statin compared with no statin use. The study included 1488 patients (mean age 60.3±14.2 years) with 9306 person-years of observation. Using the time-dependent Cox model, the 5-year adjusted hazard ratios with 95% CI for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality were 0.68 (0.55-0.83), 0.67 (0.54-0.82), and 0.63 (0.51-0.79), respectively. Use of inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting resulted in estimates of 0.79 (0.65-0.96), 0.77 (0.63-0.96), and 0.77 (0.61-0.95) for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality, respectively, compared with no statin use. Among Africans with HF, statin treatment was associated with significant reduction in mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Effect of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health.

PubMed

Reitemeier, Bernd; Hänsel, Kristina; Walter, Michael H; Kastner, Christian; Toutenburg, Helge

2002-02-01

The clinical impact of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health has not been thoroughly quantified. This study evaluated the effect of posterior crown margin placement with multivariate analysis. Ten general dentists reviewed 240 patients with 480 metal-ceramic crowns in a prospective clinical trial. The alloy was randomly selected from 2 high gold, 1 low gold, and 1 palladium alloy. Variables were the alloy used, oral hygiene index score before treatment, location of crown margins at baseline, and plaque index and sulcus bleeding index scores recorded for restored and control teeth after 1 year. The effect of crown margin placement on sulcular bleeding and plaque accumulation was analyzed with regression models (P<.05). The probability of plaque at 1 year increased with increasing oral hygiene index score before treatment. The lingual surfaces demonstrated the highest probability of plaque. The risk of bleeding at intrasulcular posterior crown margins was approximately twice that at supragingival margins. Poor oral hygiene before treatment and plaque also were associated with sulcular bleeding. Facial sites exhibited a lower probability of sulcular bleeding than lingual surfaces. Type of alloy did not influence sulcular bleeding. In this study, placement of crown margins was one of several parameters that affected gingival health.

Analysis of error type and frequency in apraxia of speech among Portuguese speakers.

PubMed

Cera, Maysa Luchesi; Minett, Thaís Soares Cianciarullo; Ortiz, Karin Zazo

2010-01-01

Most studies characterizing errors in the speech of patients with apraxia involve English language. To analyze the types and frequency of errors produced by patients with apraxia of speech whose mother tongue was Brazilian Portuguese. 20 adults with apraxia of speech caused by stroke were assessed. The types of error committed by patients were analyzed both quantitatively and qualitatively, and frequencies compared. We observed the presence of substitution, omission, trial-and-error, repetition, self-correction, anticipation, addition, reiteration and metathesis, in descending order of frequency, respectively. Omission type errors were one of the most commonly occurring whereas addition errors were infrequent. These findings differed to those reported in English speaking patients, probably owing to differences in the methodologies used for classifying error types; the inclusion of speakers with apraxia secondary to aphasia; and the difference in the structure of Portuguese language to English in terms of syllable onset complexity and effect on motor control. The frequency of omission and addition errors observed differed to the frequency reported for speakers of English.

Insulin pump treatment compared with multiple daily injections for treatment of type 2 diabetes (OpT2mise): a randomised open-label controlled trial.

PubMed

Reznik, Yves; Cohen, Ohad; Aronson, Ronnie; Conget, Ignacio; Runzis, Sarah; Castaneda, Javier; Lee, Scott W

2014-10-04

Many patients with advanced type 2 diabetes do not meet their glycated haemoglobin targets and randomised controlled studies comparing the efficacy of pump treatment and multiple daily injections for lowering glucose in insulin-treated patients have yielded inconclusive results. We aimed to resolve this uncertainty with a randomised controlled trial (OpT2mise). We did this multicentre, controlled trial at 36 hospitals, tertiary care centres, and referal centres in Canada, Europe, Israel, South Africa, and the USA. Patients with type 2 diabetes who had poor glycaemic control despite multiple daily injections with insulin analogues were enrolled into a 2-month dose-optimisation run-in period. After the run-in period, patients with glycated haemoglobin of 8·0-12·0% (64-108 mmol/mol) were randomly assigned (1:1) by a computer-generated randomisation sequence (block size 2 with probability 0·75 and size 4 with probability 0·25) to pump treatment or to continue with multiple daily injections. Neither patients nor investigators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was change in mean glycated haemoglobin between baseline and end of the randomised phase for the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01182493. 495 of 590 screened patients entered the run-in phase and 331 were randomised (168 to pump treatment, 163 to multiple daily injections). Mean glycated haemoglobin at baseline was 9% (75 mmol/mol) in both groups. At 6 months, mean glycated haemoglobin had decreased by 1·1% (SD 1·2; 12 mmol/mol, SD 13) in the pump treatment group and 0·4% (SD 1·1; 4 mmol/mol, SD 12) in the multiple daily injection group, resulting in a between-group treatment difference of -0·7% (95% CI -0·9 to -0·4; -8 mmol/mol, 95% CI -10 to -4, p<0·0001). At the end of the study, the mean total daily insulin dose was 97 units (SD 56) with pump treatment versus 122 units (SD 68) for multiple daily injections (p<0·0001), with no significant difference in bodyweight change between the two groups (1·5 kg [SD 3·5] vs 1·1 kg [3·6], p=0·322). Two diabetes-related serious adverse events (hyperglycaemia or ketosis without acidosis) resulting in hospital admission occurred in the pump treatment group compared with one in the multiple daily injection group. No ketoacidosis occurred in either group and one episode of severe hypoglycaemia occurred in the multiple daily injection group. In patients with poorly controlled type 2 diabetes despite using multiple daily injections of insulin, pump treatment can be considered as a safe and valuable treatment option. Medtronic. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevention and Therapy of Type 2 Diabetes—What Is the Potential of Daily Water Intake and Its Mineral Nutrients?

PubMed Central

Naumann, Johannes; Biehler, Diana; Lüty, Tania

2017-01-01

We aim to present an overview of the possible influence of drinking water in general and mineral water in particular in improving glycemic parameters in persons with or without type 2 diabetes. We performed a literature search that produced 15 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on this topic with mainly small sample sizes. We also discuss relevant observational and animal studies as well as the effects of important supplements in mineral water such as hydrogencarbonate and magnesium. There is low evidence for the positive effects of water or mineral water in improving glycemic parameters in diabetic and non-diabetic persons, and the results are heterogenous, making it difficult to reach an unequivocal conclusion. Meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies and other observational studies, studies with animal models and interventional studies using hydrogencarbonate and magnesium supplements suggest a probable positive effect of drinking water and mineral water in particular on glycemic parameters, supporting the positive results found in some of the RCTs, especially those substituting diet beverages or caloric beverages with water, or those using bicarbonate and magnesium-rich water. Regarding the high prevalence, the associated suffering and the resulting health expenditures of type 2 diabetes, it is imperative to conduct larger and more rigorous trials to answer the question whether drinking water or mineral water can improve glycemic parameters in diabetic and non-diabetic persons. PMID:28829398

Prevention and Therapy of Type 2 Diabetes-What Is the Potential of Daily Water Intake and Its Mineral Nutrients?

PubMed

Naumann, Johannes; Biehler, Diana; Lüty, Tania; Sadaghiani, Catharina

2017-08-22

We aim to present an overview of the possible influence of drinking water in general and mineral water in particular in improving glycemic parameters in persons with or without type 2 diabetes. We performed a literature search that produced 15 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on this topic with mainly small sample sizes. We also discuss relevant observational and animal studies as well as the effects of important supplements in mineral water such as hydrogencarbonate and magnesium. There is low evidence for the positive effects of water or mineral water in improving glycemic parameters in diabetic and non-diabetic persons, and the results are heterogenous, making it difficult to reach an unequivocal conclusion. Meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies and other observational studies, studies with animal models and interventional studies using hydrogencarbonate and magnesium supplements suggest a probable positive effect of drinking water and mineral water in particular on glycemic parameters, supporting the positive results found in some of the RCTs, especially those substituting diet beverages or caloric beverages with water, or those using bicarbonate and magnesium-rich water. Regarding the high prevalence, the associated suffering and the resulting health expenditures of type 2 diabetes, it is imperative to conduct larger and more rigorous trials to answer the question whether drinking water or mineral water can improve glycemic parameters in diabetic and non-diabetic persons.

Adaptive Randomization of Neratinib in Early Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Park, John W; Liu, Minetta C; Yee, Douglas; Yau, Christina; van 't Veer, Laura J; Symmans, W Fraser; Paoloni, Melissa; Perlmutter, Jane; Hylton, Nola M; Hogarth, Michael; DeMichele, Angela; Buxton, Meredith B; Chien, A Jo; Wallace, Anne M; Boughey, Judy C; Haddad, Tufia C; Chui, Stephen Y; Kemmer, Kathleen A; Kaplan, Henry G; Isaacs, Claudine; Nanda, Rita; Tripathy, Debasish; Albain, Kathy S; Edmiston, Kirsten K; Elias, Anthony D; Northfelt, Donald W; Pusztai, Lajos; Moulder, Stacy L; Lang, Julie E; Viscusi, Rebecca K; Euhus, David M; Haley, Barbara B; Khan, Qamar J; Wood, William C; Melisko, Michelle; Schwab, Richard; Helsten, Teresa; Lyandres, Julia; Davis, Sarah E; Hirst, Gillian L; Sanil, Ashish; Esserman, Laura J; Berry, Donald A

2016-07-07

The heterogeneity of breast cancer makes identifying effective therapies challenging. The I-SPY 2 trial, a multicenter, adaptive phase 2 trial of neoadjuvant therapy for high-risk clinical stage II or III breast cancer, evaluated multiple new agents added to standard chemotherapy to assess the effects on rates of pathological complete response (i.e., absence of residual cancer in the breast or lymph nodes at the time of surgery). We used adaptive randomization to compare standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus the tyrosine kinase inhibitor neratinib with control. Eligible women were categorized according to eight biomarker subtypes on the basis of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, hormone-receptor status, and risk according to a 70-gene profile. Neratinib was evaluated against control with regard to 10 biomarker signatures (prospectively defined combinations of subtypes). The primary end point was pathological complete response. Volume changes on serial magnetic resonance imaging were used to assess the likelihood of such a response in each patient. Adaptive assignment to experimental groups within each disease subtype was based on Bayesian probabilities of the superiority of the treatment over control. Enrollment in the experimental group was stopped when the 85% Bayesian predictive probability of success in a confirmatory phase 3 trial of neoadjuvant therapy reached a prespecified threshold for any biomarker signature ("graduation"). Enrollment was stopped for futility if the probability fell to below 10% for every biomarker signature. Neratinib reached the prespecified efficacy threshold with regard to the HER2-positive, hormone-receptor-negative signature. Among patients with HER2-positive, hormone-receptor-negative cancer, the mean estimated rate of pathological complete response was 56% (95% Bayesian probability interval [PI], 37 to 73%) among 115 patients in the neratinib group, as compared with 33% among 78 controls (95% PI, 11 to 54%). The final predictive probability of success in phase 3 testing was 79%. Neratinib added to standard therapy was highly likely to result in higher rates of pathological complete response than standard chemotherapy with trastuzumab among patients with HER2-positive, hormone-receptor-negative breast cancer. (Funded by QuantumLeap Healthcare Collaborative and others; I-SPY 2 TRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01042379.).

Study design and rationale for Optimal aNtiplatelet pharmacotherapy guided by bedSIDE genetic or functional TESTing in elective percutaneous coronary intervention patients (ONSIDE TEST): a prospective, open-label, randomised parallel-group multicentre trial (NCT01930773).

PubMed

Kołtowski, Łukasz; Aradi, Daniel; Huczek, Zenon; Tomaniak, Mariusz; Sibbing, Dirk; Filipiak, Krzysztof J; Kochman, Janusz; Balsam, Paweł; Opolski, Grzegorz

2016-01-01

High platelet reactivity (HPR) and presence of CYP2C19 loss-of-function alleles are associated with higher risk for periprocedural myocardial infarction in clopidogrel-treated patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). It is unknown whether personalised treatment based on platelet function testing or genotyping can prevent such complications. The ONSIDE-TEST is a multicentre, prospective, open-label, randomised controlled clinical trial aiming to assess if optimisation of antiplatelet therapy based on either phenotyping or genotyping is superior to conventional care. Patients will be randomised into phenotyping, genotyping, or control arms. In the phenotyping group, patients will be tested with the VerifyNow P2Y12 assay before PCI, and patients with a platelet reactivity unit greater than 208 will be switched over to prasugrel, while others will continue on clopidogrel therapy. In the genotyping group, carriers of the *2 loss-of-function allele will receive prasugrel for PCI, while wild-type subjects will be treated with clopidogrel. Patients in the control arm will be treated with standard-dose clopidogrel. The primary endpoint of the study is the prevalence of periprocedural myocardial injury within 24 h after PCI in the controls as compared to the phenotyping and genotyping group. Secondary endpoints include cardiac death, myocardial infarction, definite or probable stent thrombosis, or urgent repeat revascularisation within 30 days of PCI. Primary safety outcome is Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) type 3 and 5 bleeding during 30 days of PCI. The ONSIDE TEST trial is expected to verify the clinical utility of an individualised antiplatelet strategy in preventing periprocedural myocardial injury by either phenotyping or genotyping. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01930773.

Safety of 6-month duration of dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndromes: Rationale and design of the Smart Angioplasty Research Team-safety of 6-month duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndromes (SMART-DATE) prospective multicenter randomized trial.

PubMed

Lee, Joo Myung; Cho, Deok-Kyu; Hahn, Joo-Yong; Song, Young Bin; Park, Taek Kyu; Oh, Ju-Hyeon; Lee, Jin Bae; Doh, Joon-Hyung; Kim, Sang-Hyun; Yang, Jeong Hoon; Choi, Jin-Ho; Choi, Seung-Hyuck; Lee, Sang Hoon; Gwon, Hyeon-Cheol

2016-12-01

Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) is a fundamental treatment that optimizes clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention, especially in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Although current international guidelines recommend DAPT for at least 12 months after implantation of a drug-eluting stent in patients with ACS, these recommendations are not based on randomized controlled trials dedicated to ACS population. The SMART-DATE trial is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, and open-label study to demonstrate the noninferiority of 6-month DAPT compared with 12 months or longer DAPT in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. A total of 2,700 patients will undergo prospective, random assignment to either of the DAPT duration groups. To minimize the bias from different stent devices, the type of stents will be randomly assigned (everolimus-eluting stents, zotarolimus-eluting stents, or biolimus A9-eluting stents). The primary end point is a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, and cerebrovascular events at 18 months after the index procedure. The major secondary end points are definite/probable stent thrombosis defined by the Academic Research Consortium and bleeding defined by Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 2-5. The SMART-DATE randomized trial is the first study exploring the safety of 6-month DAPT compared with conventional 12-month or longer DAPT dedicated to patients with ACS after second-generation drug-eluting stent implantation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains

PubMed Central

Lovejoy, Lee P.; Krauzlis, Richard J.

2012-01-01

Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200–600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection. PMID:18330552

Saccade selection when reward probability is dynamically manipulated using Markov chains.

PubMed

Nummela, Samuel U; Lovejoy, Lee P; Krauzlis, Richard J

2008-05-01

Markov chains (stochastic processes where probabilities are assigned based on the previous outcome) are commonly used to examine the transitions between behavioral states, such as those that occur during foraging or social interactions. However, relatively little is known about how well primates can incorporate knowledge about Markov chains into their behavior. Saccadic eye movements are an example of a simple behavior influenced by information about probability, and thus are good candidates for testing whether subjects can learn Markov chains. In addition, when investigating the influence of probability on saccade target selection, the use of Markov chains could provide an alternative method that avoids confounds present in other task designs. To investigate these possibilities, we evaluated human behavior on a task in which stimulus reward probabilities were assigned using a Markov chain. On each trial, the subject selected one of four identical stimuli by saccade; after selection, feedback indicated the rewarded stimulus. Each session consisted of 200-600 trials, and on some sessions, the reward magnitude varied. On sessions with a uniform reward, subjects (n = 6) learned to select stimuli at a frequency close to reward probability, which is similar to human behavior on matching or probability classification tasks. When informed that a Markov chain assigned reward probabilities, subjects (n = 3) learned to select the greatest reward probability more often, bringing them close to behavior that maximizes reward. On sessions where reward magnitude varied across stimuli, subjects (n = 6) demonstrated preferences for both greater reward probability and greater reward magnitude, resulting in a preference for greater expected value (the product of reward probability and magnitude). These results demonstrate that Markov chains can be used to dynamically assign probabilities that are rapidly exploited by human subjects during saccade target selection.

Cost-effectiveness analysis in the Spanish setting of the PEAK trial of panitumumab plus mFOLFOX6 compared with bevacizumab plus mFOLFOX6 for first-line treatment of patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Rivera, Fernando; Valladares, Manuel; Gea, Salvador; López-Martínez, Noemí

2017-06-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of panitumumab in combination with mFOLFOX6 (oxaliplatin, 5-fluorouracil, and leucovorin) vs bevacizumab in combination with mFOLFOX6 as first-line treatment of patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) in Spain. A semi-Markov model was developed including the following health states: Progression free; Progressive disease: Treat with best supportive care; Progressive disease: Treat with subsequent active therapy; Attempted resection of metastases; Disease free after metastases resection; Progressive disease: after resection and relapse; and Death. Parametric survival analyses of patient-level progression free survival and overall survival data from the PEAK Phase II clinical trial were used to estimate health state transitions. Additional data from the PEAK trial were considered for the dose and duration of therapy, the use of subsequent therapy, the occurrence of adverse events, and the incidence and probability of time to metastasis resection. Utility weightings were calculated from patient-level data from panitumumab trials evaluating first-, second-, and third-line treatments. The study was performed from the Spanish National Health System (NHS) perspective including only direct costs. A life-time horizon was applied. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Based on the PEAK trial, which demonstrated greater efficacy of panitumumab vs bevacizumab, both in combination with mFOLFOX6 first-line in wild-type RAS mCRC patients, the estimated incremental cost per life-year gained was €16,567 and the estimated incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained was €22,794. The sensitivity analyses showed the model was robust to alternative parameters and assumptions. The analysis was based on a simulation model and, therefore, the results should be interpreted cautiously. Based on the PEAK Phase II clinical trial and taking into account Spanish costs, the results of the analysis showed that first-line treatment of mCRC with panitumumab + mFOLFOX6 could be considered a cost-effective option compared with bevacizumab + mFOLFOX6 for the Spanish NHS.

Rivaroxaban-induced chest wall spontaneous expanding hematoma.

PubMed

Salemis, Nikolaos S

2017-03-22

Rivaroxaban is an oral direct Factor Xa inhibitor approved in the European Union and the United Sates for the single-drug treatment of several thromboembolic diseases in adults. Ιt has been evaluated in large phase III clinical trials and has been found to have similar efficacy and safety with standard therapy. Herein, is described a very rare case of a rivaroxaban-induced spontaneous expanding chest wall hematoma, that required surgical intervention, in a breast cancer patient. Use of the Naranjo adverse drug reaction probability scale indicated a probable relationship (score of 7) between the patient's development of hematoma and treatment with rivaroxaban. Physicians should be cautious when prescribing rivaroxaban in groups of patients associated with increased bleeding risk such as patients with impaired renal or hepatic function, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, patients with certain types of cancers and patients receiving concomitant medications which may alter the pharmacokinetic or pharmacodymamic parameters of rivaroxaban. Anticoagulant treatment should be tailored to each individual patient weighing the bleeding risk against the risk of recurrent thrombosis.

Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design for combination trials.

PubMed

Cai, Chunyan; Yuan, Ying; Johnson, Valen E

2013-01-01

Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multiarm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial.

Effect of the treatment of Type 2 diabetes mellitus on the development of cognitive impairment and dementia.

PubMed

Areosa Sastre, Almudena; Vernooij, Robin Wm; González-Colaço Harmand, Magali; Martínez, Gabriel

2017-06-15

Prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia is an important public health goal. Epidemiological evidence shows a relationship between cognitive impairment and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk of dementia increases with duration of disease. This updated systematic review investigated the effect on cognitive function of the type of treatment and level of metabolic control in people with Type 2 diabetes. To assess the effects of different strategies for managing Type 2 diabetes mellitus on cognitive function and the incidence of dementia. We searched ALOIS (the Specialized Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group (CDCIG)), the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL and LILACS on 15 October 2016. ALOIS contains records from all major health care databases, (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, LILACS), as well as from many trials' registers and grey literature sources. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which compared two or more different treatments for Type 2 diabetes mellitus and in which cognitive function was measured at baseline and after treatment. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the quality of the included RCTs. We pooled data for comparable trials and estimated the effects of treatment by using risk ratios (RRs) and mean differences (MDs), according to the nature of the outcome. We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE methods. We identified seven eligible studies but only four provided data we could include in efficacy analyses. Two of these studies compared intensive versus standard glycaemic control and two compared different pharmacological treatments. All studies were at unclear risk of bias in at least two domains and one large study was at high risk of performance and detection bias.(a) Two studies with 13,934 participants at high cardiovascular risk provided efficacy data on intensive versus standard glycaemic control. A third study with 1791 participants provided additional data on hypoglycaemic episodes and mortality. There is probably no difference between treatment groups in the number of participants who decline by at least 3 points on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) over five years (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.08; 1 study; n = 11,140; moderate-quality evidence); and there may also be little or no difference in the incidence of dementia (RR 1.27, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.85; 1 study; n = 11,140; low-quality evidence). From another study, there was probably little or no difference in MMSE score after 40 months (MD -0.01, 95% CI -0.18 to 0.16; 1 study; n = 2794; moderate quality evidence). Participants exposed to the intensive glycaemic control strategy probably experience more episodes of severe hypoglycaemia than those who have standard treatment (RR 2.18, 95% CI 1.52 to 3.14; 2 studies; n = 12,827; moderate-quality evidence). The evidence from these trials suggests that the intensity of glycaemic control may have little or no effect on all-cause mortality (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.13; 3 studies; n = 15,888; low-quality evidence).(b) One study with 156 participants compared glibenclamide (glyburide) with repaglinide. There may be a small advantage of glibenclamide on global cognitive function measured with the MMSE after 12 months (MD -0.90, 95% CI -1.68 to -0.12; low-quality evidence). No data were reported on the incidence of dementia, hypoglycaemic events or all-cause mortality.(c) One study with 145 participants compared rosiglitazone plus metformin to glibenclamide (glyburide) plus metformin over 24 weeks. It reported only on cognitive subdomains and not on global cognitive function, incidence of MCI or dementia, hypoglycaemic events or all causes of mortality. We found no good evidence that any specific treatment or treatment strategy for Type 2 diabetes can prevent or delay cognitive impairment. The best available evidence related to the comparison of intensive with standard glycaemic control strategies. Here there was moderate-quality evidence that the strategies do not differ in their effect on global cognitive functioning over 40 to 60 months.

Teaching Uncertainties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duerdoth, Ian

2009-01-01

The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

A Bayesian predictive two-stage design for phase II clinical trials.

PubMed

Sambucini, Valeria

2008-04-15

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian two-stage design for phase II clinical trials, which represents a predictive version of the single threshold design (STD) recently introduced by Tan and Machin. The STD two-stage sample sizes are determined specifying a minimum threshold for the posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds a pre-specified target value and assuming that the observed response rate is slightly higher than the target. Unlike the STD, we do not refer to a fixed experimental outcome, but take into account the uncertainty about future data. In both stages, the design aims to control the probability of getting a large posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds the target value. Such a probability is expressed in terms of prior predictive distributions of the data. The performance of the design is based on the distinction between analysis and design priors, recently introduced in the literature. The properties of the method are studied when all the design parameters vary.

Technical note: Evaluation of urinary purine derivatives in comparison with duodenal purines for estimating rumen microbial protein supply in sheep.

PubMed

Kozloski, G V; Stefanello, C M; Oliveira, L; Filho, H M N Ribeiro; Klopfenstein, T J

2017-02-01

A data set of individual observations was compiled from digestibility trials to examine the relationship between the duodenal purine bases (PB) flow and urinary purine derivatives (PD) excretion and the validity of different equations for estimating rumen microbial N (Nm) supply based on urinary PD in comparison with estimates based on duodenal PB. Trials (8 trials, = 185) were conducted with male sheep fitted with a duodenal T-type cannula, housed in metabolic cages, and fed forage alone or with supplements. The amount of PD excreted in urine was linearly related to the amount of PB flowing to the duodenum ( < 0.05). The intercept of the linear regression was 0.180 mmol/(d·kg), representing the endogenous excretion of PD, and the slope was lower than 1 ( < 0.05), indicating that only 0.43% of the PB in the duodenum was excreted as PD in urine. The Nm supply estimated by either approach was linearly related ( < 0.05) to the digestible OM intake. However, the Nm supply estimated through either of 3 published PD-based equations probably underestimated the Nm supply in sheep.

Very late stent thrombosis with second generation drug eluting stents compared to bare metal stents: Network meta-analysis of randomized primary percutaneous coronary intervention trials.

PubMed

Philip, Femi; Stewart, Susan; Southard, Jeffrey A

2016-07-01

The relative safety of drug-eluting stents (DES) and bare-metal stents (BMS) in primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) continues to be debated. The long-term clinical outcomes between second generation DES and BMS for primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using network meta-analysis were compared. Randomized controlled trials comparing stent types (first generation DES, second generation DES, or BMS) were considered for inclusion. A search strategy used Medline, Embase, Cochrane databases, and proceedings of international meetings. Information about study design, inclusion criteria, and sample characteristics were extracted. Network meta-analysis was used to pool direct (comparison of second generation DES to BMS) and indirect evidence (first generation DES with BMS and second generation DES) from the randomized trials. Twelve trials comparing all stents types including 9,673 patients randomly assigned to treatment groups were analyzed. Second generation DES was associated with significantly lower incidence of definite or probable ST (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.39-0.89), MI (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.39-0.89), and TVR at 3 years (OR 0.50: 95% CI 0.31-0.81) compared with BMS. In addition, there was a significantly lower incidence of MACE with second generation DES versus BMS (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.34-0.74) at 3 years. These were driven by a higher rate of TVR, MI and stent thrombosis in the BMS group at 3 years. There was a non-significant reduction in the overall and cardiac mortality [OR 0.83, 95% CI (0.60-1.14), OR 0.88, 95% CI (0.6-1.28)] with the use of second generation DES versus BMS at 3 years. Network meta-analysis of randomized trials of primary PCI demonstrated lower incidence of MACE, MI, TVR, and stent thrombosis with second generation DES compared with BMS. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Learning From Past Failures of Oral Insulin Trials.

PubMed

Michels, Aaron W; Gottlieb, Peter A

2018-07-01

Very recently one of the largest type 1 diabetes prevention trials using daily administration of oral insulin or placebo was completed. After 9 years of study enrollment and follow-up, the randomized controlled trial failed to delay the onset of clinical type 1 diabetes, which was the primary end point. The unfortunate outcome follows the previous large-scale trial, the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1), which again failed to delay diabetes onset with oral insulin or low-dose subcutaneous insulin injections in a randomized controlled trial with relatives at risk for type 1 diabetes. These sobering results raise the important question, "Where does the type 1 diabetes prevention field move next?" In this Perspective, we advocate for a paradigm shift in which smaller mechanistic trials are conducted to define immune mechanisms and potentially identify treatment responders. The stage is set for these interventions in individuals at risk for type 1 diabetes as Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet has identified thousands of relatives with islet autoantibodies and general population screening for type 1 diabetes risk is under way. Mechanistic trials will allow for better trial design and patient selection based upon molecular markers prior to large randomized controlled trials, moving toward a personalized medicine approach for the prevention of type 1 diabetes. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.

Complex Dynamic Processes in Sign Tracking With an Omission Contingency (Negative Automaintenance)

PubMed Central

Killeen, Peter R.

2008-01-01

Hungry pigeons received food periodically, signaled by the onset of a keylight. Key pecks aborted the feeding. Subjects responded for thousands of trials, despite the contingent nonreinforcement, with varying probability as the intertrial interval was varied. Hazard functions showed the dominant tendency to be perseveration in responding and not responding. Once perseveration was accounted for, a linear operator model of associative conditioning further improved predictions. Response rates during trials were correlated with the prior probabilities of a response. Rescaled range analyses showed that the behavioral trajectories were a kind of fractional Brownian motion. PMID:12561133

Complex dynamic processes in sign tracking with an omission contingency (negative automaintenance).

PubMed

Killeen, Peter R

2003-01-01

Hungry pigeons received food periodically, signaled by the onset of a keylight. Key pecks aborted the feeding. Subjects responded for thousands of trials, despite the contingent nonreinforcement, with varying probability as the intertrial interval was varied. Hazard functions showed the dominant tendency to be perseveration in responding and not responding. Once perseveration was accounted for, a linear operator model of associative conditioning further improved predictions. Response rates during trials were correlated with the prior probabilities of a response. Rescaled range analyses showed that the behavioral trajectories were a kind of fractional Brownian motion.

qPR: An adaptive partial-report procedure based on Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Baek, Jongsoo; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Lu, Zhong-Lin

2016-08-01

Iconic memory is best assessed with the partial report procedure in which an array of letters appears briefly on the screen and a poststimulus cue directs the observer to report the identity of the cued letter(s). Typically, 6-8 cue delays or 600-800 trials are tested to measure the iconic memory decay function. Here we develop a quick partial report, or qPR, procedure based on a Bayesian adaptive framework to estimate the iconic memory decay function with much reduced testing time. The iconic memory decay function is characterized by an exponential function and a joint probability distribution of its three parameters. Starting with a prior of the parameters, the method selects the stimulus to maximize the expected information gain in the next test trial. It then updates the posterior probability distribution of the parameters based on the observer's response using Bayesian inference. The procedure is reiterated until either the total number of trials or the precision of the parameter estimates reaches a certain criterion. Simulation studies showed that only 100 trials were necessary to reach an average absolute bias of 0.026 and a precision of 0.070 (both in terms of probability correct). A psychophysical validation experiment showed that estimates of the iconic memory decay function obtained with 100 qPR trials exhibited good precision (the half width of the 68.2% credible interval = 0.055) and excellent agreement with those obtained with 1,600 trials of the conventional method of constant stimuli procedure (RMSE = 0.063). Quick partial-report relieves the data collection burden in characterizing iconic memory and makes it possible to assess iconic memory in clinical populations.

Treatment effects of Ginkgo biloba extract EGb 761® on the spectrum of behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia: meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Savaskan, Egemen; Mueller, Heiko; Hoerr, Robert; von Gunten, Armin; Gauthier, Serge

2018-03-01

ABSTRACTBackground:In randomized controlled trials, Ginkgo biloba extract EGb 761® has been found to be effective in the treatment of behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD). To assess the effects of EGb 761® on specific BPSD, we analyzed data from all randomized, placebo-controlled, at least 20-week, trials of EGb 761® enrolling patients with dementia (probable Alzheimer's disease (AD), probable vascular dementia or probable AD with cerebrovascular disease) who had clinically significant BPSD (Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) total score at least 6). Data were pooled and joint analyses of NPI single item composite and caregiver distress scores were performed by meta-analysis with a fixed effects model. Four trials involving 1628 patients (EGb 761®, 814; placebo, 814) were identified; treatment duration was 22 or 24 weeks; the daily dose of EGb 761® was 240 mg in all trials. Pooled analyses including data from the full analysis sets of all trials (EGb 761®, 796 patients; placebo, 802 patients) revealed significant superiority of EGb 761® over placebo in total scores and 10 single symptom scores. Regarding caregiver distress scores, EGb 761®-treated patients improved significantly more than those receiving placebo in all symptoms except delusions, hallucinations, and elation/euphoria. The benefit of EGb 761® mainly consists of improvement in symptoms present at baseline, but the incidence of some symptoms was also decreased. Twenty two- to twenty four-week treatment with Ginkgo biloba extract EGb 761® improved BPSD (except psychotic-like features) and caregiver distress caused by such symptoms.

qPR: An adaptive partial-report procedure based on Bayesian inference

PubMed Central

Baek, Jongsoo; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Lu, Zhong-Lin

2016-01-01

Iconic memory is best assessed with the partial report procedure in which an array of letters appears briefly on the screen and a poststimulus cue directs the observer to report the identity of the cued letter(s). Typically, 6–8 cue delays or 600–800 trials are tested to measure the iconic memory decay function. Here we develop a quick partial report, or qPR, procedure based on a Bayesian adaptive framework to estimate the iconic memory decay function with much reduced testing time. The iconic memory decay function is characterized by an exponential function and a joint probability distribution of its three parameters. Starting with a prior of the parameters, the method selects the stimulus to maximize the expected information gain in the next test trial. It then updates the posterior probability distribution of the parameters based on the observer's response using Bayesian inference. The procedure is reiterated until either the total number of trials or the precision of the parameter estimates reaches a certain criterion. Simulation studies showed that only 100 trials were necessary to reach an average absolute bias of 0.026 and a precision of 0.070 (both in terms of probability correct). A psychophysical validation experiment showed that estimates of the iconic memory decay function obtained with 100 qPR trials exhibited good precision (the half width of the 68.2% credible interval = 0.055) and excellent agreement with those obtained with 1,600 trials of the conventional method of constant stimuli procedure (RMSE = 0.063). Quick partial-report relieves the data collection burden in characterizing iconic memory and makes it possible to assess iconic memory in clinical populations. PMID:27580045

High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect.

PubMed

Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

2017-01-01

Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation.

High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect

PubMed Central

Gosling, Corentin J.; Moutier, Sylvain

2017-01-01

Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation. PMID:28232808

A web-based support for pregnant women and new mothers with type 1 diabetes mellitus in Sweden (MODIAB-Web): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Adolfsson, Annsofie; Linden, Karolina; Sparud-Lundin, Carina; Larsson, Per-Göran; Berg, Marie

2014-12-29

Women with type 1 diabetes face particular demands in their lives in relation to childbearing. During pregnancy, in order to optimize the probability of giving birth to a healthy child, their blood glucose levels need to be as normal as possible. After childbirth, they experience a 'double stress': in addition to the ordinary challenges they face as new mothers, they also need to focus on getting their blood glucose levels normal. To improve self-management of diabetes and overall well-being in women with type 1 diabetes, a person-centered web-based support was designed to be tested in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to be used during pregnancy and early motherhood. This protocol outlines the design of this RCT, which will evaluate the effectiveness of the specially designed web-based support for mothers with type 1 diabetes in Sweden. The study is designed as an RCT. The web support consists of three parts: 1) evidence-based information, 2) a self-care diary, and 3) communication with peers. The primary outcome is general well-being evaluated with the Well-Being Questionnaire short version (W-BQ12) and diabetes management evaluated with the Diabetes Empowerment Scale, short version (SWE-DES). Women attending six hospital-based antenatal care centers in Sweden are invited to participate. The inclusion period is November 2011 to late 2014. The allocation of participants to web support (intervention group) and to usual care (control group) is equal (1:1). In total, 68 participants in each group will be needed to reach a statistical power of 80% with significance level 0.05. The web support is expected to strengthen the women's personal capacity and autonomy during pregnancy, breastfeeding, and early motherhood, leading to optimal well-being and diabetes management. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01565824 (registration date March 27th 2012).

Pharmacokinetic drug evaluation of saxagliptin plus dapagliflozin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Scheen, André J

2017-05-01

Combining a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor and a sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitor is an attractive option to treat hyperglycaemia in type 2 diabetes. Areas covered: The saxagliptin plus dapagliflozin combination is carefully analysed, focusing on: 1) pharmacokinetic properties, 2) pharmacodynamics data, and 3) results of randomised controlled trials (dual combination versus either monotherapy, sequential therapy saxagliptin added to dapagliflozin or dapagliflozin added to saxagliptin). Expert opinion: Pharmacokinetic findings demonstrate the absence of drug-drug interaction and the bioequivalence of the FDC compared with separated tablets. Pharmacodynamic observations confirm a complementary mode of action of the two agents. Dual saxagliptin-dapagliflozin therapy is more potent than either monotherapy. It may be used as an initial combination, although this approach remains debatable and should probably be reserved in case of high glycated hemoglobin, or a stepwise strategy, according to a personalized approach. The developed saxagliptin-dapagliflozin FDC may simplify anti-hyperglycemic therapy and improve drug compliance.

Distribution of the two-sample t-test statistic following blinded sample size re-estimation.

PubMed

Lu, Kaifeng

2016-05-01

We consider the blinded sample size re-estimation based on the simple one-sample variance estimator at an interim analysis. We characterize the exact distribution of the standard two-sample t-test statistic at the final analysis. We describe a simulation algorithm for the evaluation of the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at given treatment effect. We compare the blinded sample size re-estimation method with two unblinded methods with respect to the empirical type I error, the empirical power, and the empirical distribution of the standard deviation estimator and final sample size. We characterize the type I error inflation across the range of standardized non-inferiority margin for non-inferiority trials, and derive the adjusted significance level to ensure type I error control for given sample size of the internal pilot study. We show that the adjusted significance level increases as the sample size of the internal pilot study increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

What is the optimal systemic treatment of men with metastatic, hormone-naive prostate cancer? A STOPCAP systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Vale, C L; Fisher, D J; White, I R; Carpenter, J R; Burdett, S; Clarke, N W; Fizazi, K; Gravis, G; James, N D; Mason, M D; Parmar, M K B; Rydzewska, L H; Sweeney, C J; Spears, M R; Sydes, M R; Tierney, J F

2018-05-01

Our prior Systemic Treatment Options for Cancer of the Prostate systematic reviews showed improved survival for men with metastatic hormone-naive prostate cancer when abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone/prednisone (AAP) or docetaxel (Doc), but not zoledronic acid (ZA), were added to androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT). Trial evidence also suggests a benefit of combining celecoxib (Cel) with ZA and ADT. To establish the optimal treatments, a network meta-analysis (NMA) was carried out based on aggregate data (AD) from all available studies. Overall survival (OS) and failure-free survival data from completed Systemic Treatment Options for Cancer of the Prostate reviews of Doc, ZA and AAP and from recent trials of ZA and Cel contributed to this comprehensive AD-NMA. The primary outcome was OS. Correlations between treatment comparisons within one multi-arm, multi-stage trial were estimated from control-arm event counts. Network consistency and a common heterogeneity variance were assumed. We identified 10 completed trials which had closed to recruitment, and one trial in which recruitment was ongoing, as eligible for inclusion. Results are based on six trials including 6204 men (97% of men randomised in all completed trials). Network estimates of effects on OS were consistent with reported comparisons with ADT alone for AAP [hazard ration (HR) = 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-0.71], Doc (HR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.87), ZA + Cel (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.97), ZA + Doc (HR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.66-0.94), Cel (HR = 0.94 95% CI 0.75-1.17) and ZA (HR = 0.90 95% CI 0.79-1.03). The effect of ZA + Cel is consistent with the additive effects of the individual treatments. Results suggest that AAP has the highest probability of being the most effective treatment both for OS (94% probability) and failure-free survival (100% probability). Doc was the second-best treatment of OS (35% probability). Uniquely, we have included all available results and appropriately accounted for inclusion of multi-arm, multi-stage trials in this AD-NMA. Our results support the use of AAP or Doc with ADT in men with metastatic hormone-naive prostate cancer. AAP appears to be the most effective treatment, but it is not clear to what extent and whether this is due to a true increased benefit with AAP or the variable features of the individual trials. To fully account for patient variability across trials, changes in prognosis or treatment effects over time and the potential impact of treatment on progression, a network meta-analysis based on individual participant data is in development.

Cost-effectiveness of silver dressings for paediatric partial thickness burns: An economic evaluation from a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Gee Kee, E; Stockton, K; Kimble, R M; Cuttle, L; McPhail, S M

2017-06-01

Partial thickness burns of up to 10% total body surface area (TBSA) in children are common injuries primarily treated in the outpatient setting using expensive silver-containing dressings. However, economic evaluations in the paediatric burns population are lacking to assist healthcare providers when choosing which dressing to use. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of three silver dressings for partial thickness burns ≤10% TBSA in children aged 0-15 years using days to full wound re-epithelialization as the health outcome. This study was a trial based economic evaluation (incremental cost effectiveness) conducted from a healthcare provider perspective. Ninety-six children participated in the trial investigating Acticoat™, Acticoat™ with Mepitel™ or Mepilex Ag™. Costs directly related to the management of partial thickness burns ≤10% TBSA were collected during the trial from March 2013 to July 2014 and for a one year after re-epithelialization time horizon. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were estimated and dominance probabilities calculated from bootstrap resampling trial data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the potential effect of accounting for infrequent, but high cost, skin grafting surgical procedures. Costs (dressing, labour, analgesics, scar management) were considerably lower in the Mepilex Ag™ group (median AUD$94.45) compared to the Acticoat™ (median $244.90) and Acticoat™ with Mepitel™ (median $196.66) interventions. There was a 99% and 97% probability that Mepilex Ag™ dominated (cheaper and more effective than) Acticoat™ and Acticoat™ with Mepitel™, respectively. This pattern of dominance was consistent across raw cost and effects, after a priori adjustments, and sensitivity analyses. There was an 82% probability that Acticoat™ with Mepitel dominated Acticoat™ in the primary analysis, although this probability was sensitive to the effect of skin graft procedures. This economic evaluation has demonstrated that Mepilex Ag™ was the dominant dressing choice over both Acticoat™ and Acticoat™ with Mepitel™ in this trial-based economic evaluation and is recommended for treatment of paediatric partial thickness burns ≤10% TBSA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Bayesian sample size calculations in phase II clinical trials using a mixture of informative priors.

PubMed

Gajewski, Byron J; Mayo, Matthew S

2006-08-15

A number of researchers have discussed phase II clinical trials from a Bayesian perspective. A recent article by Mayo and Gajewski focuses on sample size calculations, which they determine by specifying an informative prior distribution and then calculating a posterior probability that the true response will exceed a prespecified target. In this article, we extend these sample size calculations to include a mixture of informative prior distributions. The mixture comes from several sources of information. For example consider information from two (or more) clinicians. The first clinician is pessimistic about the drug and the second clinician is optimistic. We tabulate the results for sample size design using the fact that the simple mixture of Betas is a conjugate family for the Beta- Binomial model. We discuss the theoretical framework for these types of Bayesian designs and show that the Bayesian designs in this paper approximate this theoretical framework. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Selecting promising treatments in randomized Phase II cancer trials with an active control.

PubMed

Cheung, Ying Kuen

2009-01-01

The primary objective of Phase II cancer trials is to evaluate the potential efficacy of a new regimen in terms of its antitumor activity in a given type of cancer. Due to advances in oncology therapeutics and heterogeneity in the patient population, such evaluation can be interpreted objectively only in the presence of a prospective control group of an active standard treatment. This paper deals with the design problem of Phase II selection trials in which several experimental regimens are compared to an active control, with an objective to identify an experimental arm that is more effective than the control or to declare futility if no such treatment exists. Conducting a multi-arm randomized selection trial is a useful strategy to prioritize experimental treatments for further testing when many candidates are available, but the sample size required in such a trial with an active control could raise feasibility concerns. In this study, we extend the sequential probability ratio test for normal observations to the multi-arm selection setting. The proposed methods, allowing frequent interim monitoring, offer high likelihood of early trial termination, and as such enhance enrollment feasibility. The termination and selection criteria have closed form solutions and are easy to compute with respect to any given set of error constraints. The proposed methods are applied to design a selection trial in which combinations of sorafenib and erlotinib are compared to a control group in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer using a continuous endpoint of change in tumor size. The operating characteristics of the proposed methods are compared to that of a single-stage design via simulations: The sample size requirement is reduced substantially and is feasible at an early stage of drug development.

Effects of partial reinforcement and time between reinforced trials on terminal response rate in pigeon autoshaping.

PubMed

Gottlieb, Daniel A

2006-03-01

Partial reinforcement often leads to asymptotically higher rates of responding and number of trials with a response than does continuous reinforcement in pigeon autoshaping. However, comparisons typically involve a partial reinforcement schedule that differs from the continuous reinforcement schedule in both time between reinforced trials and probability of reinforcement. Two experiments examined the relative contributions of these two manipulations to asymptotic response rate. Results suggest that the greater responding previously seen with partial reinforcement is primarily due to differential probability of reinforcement and not differential time between reinforced trials. Further, once established, differences in responding are resistant to a change in stimulus and contingency. Secondary response theories of autoshaped responding (theories that posit additional response-augmenting or response-attenuating mechanisms specific to partial or continuous reinforcement) cannot fully accommodate the current body of data. It is suggested that researchers who study pigeon autoshaping train animals on a common task prior to training them under different conditions.

Efavirenz or nevirapine in three-drug combination therapy with two nucleoside or nucleotide-reverse transcriptase inhibitors for initial treatment of HIV infection in antiretroviral-naïve individuals

PubMed Central

Mbuagbaw, Lawrence; Mursleen, Sara; Irlam, James H; Spaulding, Alicen B; Rutherford, George W; Siegfried, Nandi

2016-01-01

Background The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced the morbidity and mortality due to HIV infection. The World Health Organization (WHO) ART guidelines focus on three classes of antiretroviral drugs, namely nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) and protease inhibitors. Two of the most common medications given as first-line treatment are the NNRTIs, efavirenz (EFV) and nevirapine (NVP). It is unclear which NNRTI is more efficacious for initial therapy. This systematic review was first published in 2010. Objectives To determine which non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, either EFV or NVP, is more effective in suppressing viral load when given in combination with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors as part of initial antiretroviral therapy for HIV infection in adults and children. Search methods We attempted to identify all relevant studies, regardless of language or publication status, in electronic databases and conference proceedings up to 12 August 2016. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov to 12 August 2016. We searched LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature) and the Web of Science from 1996 to 12 August 2016. We checked the National Library of Medicine (NLM) Gateway from 1996 to 2009, as it was no longer available after 2009. Selection criteria We included all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared EFV to NVP in people with HIV without prior exposure to ART, irrespective of the dosage or NRTI's given in combination. The primary outcome of interest was virological success. Other primary outcomes included mortality, clinical progression to AIDS, severe adverse events, and discontinuation of therapy for any reason. Secondary outcomes were change in CD4 count, treatment failure, development of ART drug resistance, and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. Data collection and analysis Two review authors assessed each reference for inclusion using exclusion criteria that we had established a priori. Two review authors independently extracted data from each included trial using a standardized data extraction form. We analysed data on an intention-to-treat basis. We performed subgroup analyses for concurrent treatment for tuberculosis and dosage of NVP. We followed standard Cochrane methodological procedures. Main results Twelve RCTs, which included 3278 participants, met our inclusion criteria. None of these trials included children. The length of follow-up time, study settings, and NRTI combination drugs varied greatly. In five included trials, participants were receiving concurrent treatment for tuberculosis. There was little or no difference between EFV and NVP in virological success (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.09; 10 trials, 2438 participants; high quality evidence), probably little or no difference in mortality (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.19; 8 trials, 2317 participants; moderate quality evidence) and progression to AIDS (RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.72 to 2.11; 5 trials, 2005 participants; moderate quality evidence). We are uncertain whether there is a difference in all severe adverse events (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.18; 8 trials, 2329 participants; very low quality evidence). There is probably little or no difference in discontinuation rate (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.25; 9 trials, 2384 participants; moderate quality evidence) and change in CD4 count (MD −3.03; 95% CI −17.41 to 11.35; 9 trials, 1829 participants; moderate quality evidence). There may be little or no difference in treatment failure (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.24; 5 trials, 737 participants; low quality evidence). Development of drug resistance is probably slightly less in the EFV arms (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.95; 4 trials, 988 participants; moderate quality evidence). No studies were found that looked at sexual transmission of HIV. When we examined the adverse events individually, EFV probably is associated with more people with impaired mental function (7 per 1000) compared to NVP (2 per 1000; RR 4.46, 95% CI 1.65 to 12.03; 6 trials, 2049 participants; moderate quality evidence) but fewer people with elevated transaminases (RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.78; 3 trials, 1299 participants; high quality evidence), fewer people with neutropenia (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.82; 3 trials, 1799 participants; high quality evidence), and probably fewer people withrash (229 per 100 with NVP versus 133 per 1000 with EFV; RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.00; 7 trials, 2277 participants; moderate quality evidence). We found that there may be little or no difference in gastrointestinal adverse events (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.21; 6 trials, 2049 participants; low quality evidence), pyrexia (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.15 to 2.73; 3 trials, 1799 participants; low quality evidence), raised alkaline phosphatase (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.17 to 2.50; 1 trial, 1007 participants; low quality evidence), raised amylase (RR 1.40, 95% CI 0.72 to 2.73; 2 trials, 1071 participants; low quality evidence) and raised triglycerides (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.39 to 3.13; 2 trials, 1071 participants; low quality evidence). There was probably little or no difference in serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT; MD 3.3, 95% CI -2.06 to 8.66; 1 trial, 135 participants; moderate quality evidence), serum glutamic- pyruvic transaminase (SGPT; MD 5.7, 95% CI -4.23 to 15.63; 1 trial, 135 participants; moderate quality evidence) and raised cholesterol (RR 6.03, 95% CI 0.75 to 48.78; 1 trial, 64 participants; moderate quality evidence). Our subgroup analyses revealed that NVP slightly increases mortality when given once daily (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.90; 3 trials, 678 participants; high quality evidence). There were little or no differences in the primary outcomes for patients who were concurrently receiving treatment for tuberculosis. Authors' conclusions Both drugs have similar benefits in initial treatment of HIV infection when combined with two NRTIs. The adverse events encountered affect different systems, with EFV more likely to cause central nervous system adverse events and NVP more likely to raise transaminases, cause neutropenia and rash. Effectiveness of EFV compared to NVP in the suppression of HIV infection when used as part of initial three-drug combination Research question For people living with HIV who have never received antiretroviral therapy (ART), which drug is more effective in suppressing HIV infection in combination with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI): efavirenz (EFV) or nevirapine (NVP)? Background The introduction of highly active ART as treatment for HIV infection has greatly reduced mortality and morbidity for adults and adolescents living with HIV around the world. The recommended initial treatments for HIV infection include two drugs from a class of drugs known as NRTI and one from a related class of drugs called non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). The two NNRTIs most commonly used are NVP and EFV. However, NVP can cause liver damage and severe rash, both of which can be fatal. EFV may also cause a rash, impair mental function, and cause foetal malformations. Main results Cochrane researchers examined the available literature up to 12 August 2016 and identified 12 randomized controlled trials, with a total of 3278 people, that met the inclusion criteria of this review. None of the included trials included children. Four trials included people who were also receiving treatment for tuberculosis. There was little or no difference in suppression of HIV infection (high quality evidence), probably little or no difference in mortality, progression to AIDS, stopping treatment early and changes in blood cells affected by HIV (moderate quality evidence). There may be little or no difference in treatment failure (low quality evidence). We are uncertain whether there is a difference in side-effects (very low quality evidence). No studies were found that looked at sexual transmission of HIV. Development of drug resistance is probably slightly less in the EFV group (moderate quality evidence). When the side effects were examined individually, EFV probably caused more impaired mental function (6% in the EFV group and 2% in the NVP group; moderate quality evidence), while NVP probably caused more people to have a rash (3% in the EFV group and 6% in the NVP group; moderate quality evidence), caused more people to have reduced white blood cells (2% in the EFV group and 5% in the NVP group; high quality evidence), and signs of liver damage (6% in the EFV group and 11% in the NVP group; high quality evidence). There was probably little or no difference in increases in liver enzymes and levels of cholesterol (moderate quality evidence). There may be little or no difference in digestive side-effects, fever, enzymes from the liver and pancreas, and fat in the blood (low quality evidence). People on NVP were probably more likely to die when given a once-daily regimen (2% in the EFV group and 4% in the NVP group; moderate quality evidence). In people who were taking treatment for tuberculosis compared to those who were not, there was probably little or no difference in suppression of HIV, deaths, progression to AIDS or stopping treatment early (moderate to high quality evidence). Conclusion EFV and NVP are similarly effective in viral suppression, preventing HIV progression and reducing mortality. EFV is more likely to affect mental function, while NVP is more likely to cause signs of liver damage, reduced white blood cells and rash. PMID:27943261

The paradoxical effect of low reward probabilities in suboptimal choice.

PubMed

Fortes, Inês; Pinto, Carlos; Machado, Armando; Vasconcelos, Marco

2018-04-01

When offered a choice between 2 alternatives, animals sometimes prefer the option yielding less food. For instance, pigeons and starlings prefer an option that on 20% of the trials presents a stimulus always followed by food, and on the remaining 80% of the trials presents a stimulus never followed by food (the Informative Option), over an option that provides food on 50% of the trials regardless of the stimulus presented (the Noninformative Option). To explain this suboptimal behavior, it has been hypothesized that animals ignore (or do not engage with) the stimulus that is never followed by food in the Informative Option. To assess when pigeons attend to the stimulus usually not followed by food, we increased the probability of reinforcement, p, in the presence of that stimulus. Across 2 experiments, we found that the value of the Informative Option decreased with p. To account for the results, we added to the Reinforcement Rate Model (and also to the Hyperbolic Discounting Model) an engagement function, f(p), that specified the likelihood the animal attends to a stimulus followed by reward with probability p, and then derived the model predictions for 2 forms of f(p), a linear function, and an all-or-none threshold function. Both models predicted the observed findings with a linear engagement function: The higher the probability of reinforcement after a stimulus, the higher the probability of engaging the stimulus, and, surprisingly, the less the value of the option comprising the stimulus. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Probability differently modulating the effects of reward and punishment on visuomotor adaptation.

PubMed

Song, Yanlong; Smiley-Oyen, Ann L

2017-12-01

Recent human motor learning studies revealed that punishment seemingly accelerated motor learning but reward enhanced consolidation of motor memory. It is not evident how intrinsic properties of reward and punishment modulate the potentially dissociable effects of reward and punishment on motor learning and motor memory. It is also not clear what causes the dissociation of the effects of reward and punishment. By manipulating probability of distribution, a critical property of reward and punishment, the present study demonstrated that probability had distinct modulation on the effects of reward and punishment in adapting to a sudden visual rotation and consolidation of the adaptation memory. Specifically, two probabilities of monetary reward and punishment distribution, 50 and 100%, were applied during young adult participants adapting to a sudden visual rotation. Punishment and reward showed distinct effects on motor adaptation and motor memory. The group that received punishments in 100% of the adaptation trials adapted significantly faster than the other three groups, but the group that received rewards in 100% of the adaptation trials showed marked savings in re-adapting to the same rotation. In addition, the group that received punishments in 50% of the adaptation trials that were randomly selected also had savings in re-adapting to the same rotation. Sensitivity to sensory prediction error or difference in explicit process induced by reward and punishment may likely contribute to the distinct effects of reward and punishment.

A predictive approach to selecting the size of a clinical trial, based on subjective clinical opinion.

PubMed

Spiegelhalter, D J; Freedman, L S

1986-01-01

The 'textbook' approach to determining sample size in a clinical trial has some fundamental weaknesses which we discuss. We describe a new predictive method which takes account of prior clinical opinion about the treatment difference. The method adopts the point of clinical equivalence (determined by interviewing the clinical participants) as the null hypothesis. Decision rules at the end of the study are based on whether the interval estimate of the treatment difference (classical or Bayesian) includes the null hypothesis. The prior distribution is used to predict the probabilities of making the decisions to use one or other treatment or to reserve final judgement. It is recommended that sample size be chosen to control the predicted probability of the last of these decisions. An example is given from a multi-centre trial of superficial bladder cancer.

Lipopolysaccharide Alters Motivated Behavior in a Monetary Reward Task: a Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Lasselin, Julie; Treadway, Michael T; Lacourt, Tamara E; Soop, Anne; Olsson, Mats J; Karshikoff, Bianka; Paues-Göranson, Sofie; Axelsson, John; Dantzer, Robert; Lekander, Mats

2017-03-01

Inflammation-induced sickness is associated with a large set of behavioral alterations; however, its motivational aspects remain poorly explored in humans. The present study assessed the effect of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration at a dose of 2 ng/kg of body weight on motivation in 21 healthy human subjects in a double-blinded, placebo (saline)-controlled, cross-over design. Incentive motivation and reward sensitivity were measured using the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task (EEfRT), in which motivation for high-effort/high-reward trials vs low-effort/low-reward trials are manipulated by variations in reward magnitude and probability to win. Because of the strong interactions between sleepiness and motivation, the role of sleepiness was also determined. As expected, the probability to win predicted the choice to engage in high-effort/high-reward trials; however, this occurred at a greater extent after LPS than after saline administration. This effect was related to the level of sleepiness. Sleepiness increased motivation to choose the high-effort/high-reward mode of response, but only when the probability to win was the highest. LPS had no effect on reward sensitivity either directly or via sleepiness. These results indicate that systemic inflammation induced by LPS administration causes motivational changes in young healthy subjects, which are associated with sleepiness. Thus, despite its association with energy-saving behaviors, sickness allows increased incentive motivation when the effort is deemed worthwhile.

Lipopolysaccharide Alters Motivated Behavior in a Monetary Reward Task: a Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Lasselin, Julie; Treadway, Michael T; Lacourt, Tamara E; Soop, Anne; Olsson, Mats J; Karshikoff, Bianka; Paues-Göranson, Sofie; Axelsson, John; Dantzer, Robert; Lekander, Mats

2017-01-01

Inflammation-induced sickness is associated with a large set of behavioral alterations; however, its motivational aspects remain poorly explored in humans. The present study assessed the effect of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration at a dose of 2 ng/kg of body weight on motivation in 21 healthy human subjects in a double-blinded, placebo (saline)-controlled, cross-over design. Incentive motivation and reward sensitivity were measured using the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task (EEfRT), in which motivation for high-effort/high-reward trials vs low-effort/low-reward trials are manipulated by variations in reward magnitude and probability to win. Because of the strong interactions between sleepiness and motivation, the role of sleepiness was also determined. As expected, the probability to win predicted the choice to engage in high-effort/high-reward trials; however, this occurred at a greater extent after LPS than after saline administration. This effect was related to the level of sleepiness. Sleepiness increased motivation to choose the high-effort/high-reward mode of response, but only when the probability to win was the highest. LPS had no effect on reward sensitivity either directly or via sleepiness. These results indicate that systemic inflammation induced by LPS administration causes motivational changes in young healthy subjects, which are associated with sleepiness. Thus, despite its association with energy-saving behaviors, sickness allows increased incentive motivation when the effort is deemed worthwhile. PMID:27620550

Spatial Probability Cuing and Right Hemisphere Damage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaqiri, Albulena; Anderson, Britt

2012-01-01

In this experiment we studied statistical learning, inter-trial priming, and visual attention. We assessed healthy controls and right brain damaged (RBD) patients with and without neglect, on a simple visual discrimination task designed to measure priming effects and probability learning. All participants showed a preserved priming effect for item…

Meta-analysis of randomized and quasi-randomized clinical trials of topical antibiotics after primary closure for the prevention of surgical-site infection.

PubMed

Heal, C F; Banks, J L; Lepper, P; Kontopantelis, E; van Driel, M L

2017-08-01

Surgical-site infections (SSIs) increase patient morbidity and costs. The aim was to identify and synthesize all RCTs evaluating the effect of topical antibiotics on SSI in wounds healing by primary intention. The search included Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, the Cochrane Wounds Specialized Register, Central Register of Controlled Trials and EBSCO CINAHL from inception to May 2016. There was no restriction of language, date or setting. Two authors independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. When sufficient numbers of comparable trials were available, data were pooled in meta-analysis. Fourteen RCTs with 6466 participants met the inclusion criteria. Pooling of eight trials (5427 participants) showed that topical antibiotics probably reduced the risk of SSI compared with no topical antibiotic (risk ratio (RR) 0·61, 95 per cent c.i. 0·42 to 0·87; moderate-quality evidence), equating to 20 fewer SSIs per 1000 patients treated. Pooling of three trials (3012 participants) for risk of allergic contact dermatitis found no clear difference between antibiotics and no antibiotic (RR 3·94, 0·46 to 34·00; very low-quality evidence). Pooling of five trials (1299 participants) indicated that topical antibiotics probably reduce the risk of SSI compared with topical antiseptics (RR 0·49, 0·30 to 0·80; moderate-quality evidence); 43 fewer SSIs per 1000 patients treated. Pooling of two trials (541 participants) showed no clear difference in the risk of allergic contact dermatitis with antibiotics or antiseptic agents (RR 0·97, 0·52 to 1·82; very low-quality evidence). Topical antibiotics probably prevent SSI compared with no topical antibiotic or antiseptic. No conclusion can be drawn regarding whether they cause allergic contact dermatitis. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

SUPPORTING CHILDREN IN U.S. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS

PubMed Central

McAuliff, Bradley D.; Nicholson, Elizabeth; Amarilio, Diana; Ravanshenas, Daniel

2012-01-01

We conducted a national survey of 786 victim/witness assistants (VWAs) to provide descriptive and attitudinal information about support person use in U.S. legal proceedings involving children. VWAs (N = 414) from 46 states returned completed surveys (response rate = 53%). Prosecutor-based VWAs or parents/guardians most frequently served as support persons. One support person was almost always or often used with child victims and/or witnesses of all ages. Support persons were extremely common in cases involving child sexual abuse, physical abuse, neglect, and adult domestic violence. Overall, support persons provided more informational than emotional support. The most common informational support was to provide referrals to community resources, conduct courtroom visit/orientation, and disseminate relevant procedural information. The most common emotional support was to accompany the child to trial. Support persons rarely or never questioned children directly during investigative interviews or in court. Respondents believed support persons decrease children’s stress and increase accuracy and credibility; however, this effect varied as a function of who provided support, child age, case type, and type of emotional or informational support. Respondents believed that support person presence at trial probably does not prejudice jurors against defendants. These survey data provide a benchmark for legal professionals and a foundation for future social scientific research examining the effects of support person use on children. PMID:24741286

Blood pressure targets in type 2 diabetes. Evidence against or in favour of an aggressive approach.

PubMed

Mancia, Giuseppe; Grassi, Guido

2018-03-01

When associated with high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes mellitus is characterised by a high risk of adverse cardiovascular (CV) and renal outcomes. However, both can be effectively reduced by antihypertensive treatment. Current guidelines on the treatment of hypertension emphasize the need to effectively treat high blood pressure in diabetic individuals, but their recommendations differ in terms of the optimal target blood pressure value to aim for in order to maximise CV and renal protection. In some guidelines the recommended target blood pressure values are <140/90 mmHg (systolic/diastolic), whereas in others, blood pressure values close or even less than 130/80 mmHg are recommended. This paper will discuss the evidence for and against a conservative or more aggressive blood pressure target for treated diabetic hypertensive individuals based on the evidence provided by randomised trials, trial meta-analyses and large observational studies. Based on the available evidence, it appears that blood pressure targets will probably have to be lower than <140/90 mmHg, and that values approaching 130/80 mmHg should be recommended. However, evidence in favour of even lower systolic values, i.e. <130 mmHg, is limited and is definitively against a reduction to <120 mmHg.

Substance Use, Depression and Sociodemographic Determinants of HIV Sexual Risk Behavior in Outpatient Substance Abuse Treatment Patients.

PubMed

Tross, Susan; Feaster, Daniel J; Thorens, Gabriel; Duan, Rui; Gomez, Zoilyn; Pavlicova, Martina; Hu, Mei Chen; Kyle, Tiffany; Erickson, Sarah; Spector, Anya; Haynes, Louise; Metsch, Lisa R

2015-01-01

The NIDA Clinical Trials Network trial of rapid HIV testing/counseling in 1281 patients was a unique opportunity to examine relationships among substance use, depressive symptoms, and sex risk behavior. Past 6-month substance use; substance use severity (Drug Abuse Screening Test - 10); depressive symptoms (Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology); and three types of sex risk behavior (unprotected sex occasions [USOs] with primary partners; USOs with nonprimary partners; and USOs while high/drunk) were assessed. Zero-inflated negative binomial analyses provided: probability and rate of sex risk behavior (in risk behavior subsample). Levels of sexual risk behavior were high, while variable across the three types of sex risk behaviors. Among the patients, 50.4% had engaged in USOs with primary partners, 42% in sex while drunk or high, and 23.8% in USOs with nonprimary partners. Similar factors were significantly associated with all three types of sex risk behaviors. For all types, problem drinking, cocaine use, and substance use severity had an exacerbating effect. Older age was associated with lower risk behavior; other relationship categories (eg, married, separated/divorced, cohabitating) were associated with greater risk behavior than was single status. Depressive symptoms were associated with decreased likelihood of USOs with a primary partner. Sexual risk behavior is common among individuals in outpatient substance abuse treatment. Results highlight problem drinking (eg, up to three-fold) and cocaine (eg, up to twice) in increasing sex risk behavior. They demonstrate the utility of distinguishing between partner types and presence/absence of alcohol/drugs during sex. Findings argue for the need to integrate sex risk reduction into drug treatment.

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, J. L.

1976-01-01

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design for combination trials

PubMed Central

Cai, Chunyan; Yuan, Ying; Johnson, Valen E

2013-01-01

Background Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Methods Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Results Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multiarm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. Limitations The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. PMID:23359875

To cross or not to cross: modeling wildlife road crossings as a binary response variable with contextual predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Siers, Shane R.; Reed, Robert N.; Savidge, Julie A.

2016-01-01

Roads are significant barriers to landscape-scale movements of individuals or populations of many wildlife taxa. The decision by an animal near a road to either cross or not cross may be influenced by characteristics of the road, environmental conditions, traits of the individual animal, and other aspects of the context within which the decision is made. We considered such factors in a mixed-effects logistic regression model describing the nightly road crossing probabilities of invasive nocturnal Brown Treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) through short-term radiotracking of 691 snakes within close proximity to 50 road segments across the island of Guam. All measures of road magnitude (traffic volume, gap width, surface type, etc.) were significantly negatively correlated with crossing probabilities. Snake body size was the only intrinsic factor associated with crossing rates, with larger snakes crossing roads more frequently. Humidity was the only environmental variable affecting crossing rate. The distance of the snake from the road at the start of nightly movement trials was the most significant predictor of crossings. The presence of snake traps with live mouse lures during a portion of the trials indicated that localized prey cues reduced the probability of a snake crossing the road away from the traps, suggesting that a snake's decision to cross roads is influenced by local foraging opportunities. Per capita road crossing rates of Brown Treesnakes were very low, and comparisons to historical records suggest that crossing rates have declined in the 60+ yr since introduction to Guam. We report a simplified model that will allow managers to predict road crossing rates based on snake, road, and contextual characteristics. Road crossing simulations based on actual snake size distributions demonstrate that populations with size distributions skewed toward larger snakes will result in a higher number of road crossings. Our method of modeling per capita road crossing probabilities as a binary response variable, influenced by contextual factors, may be useful for describing or predicting road crossings by individuals of other taxa provided that appropriate spatial and temporal resolution can be achieved and that potentially influential covariate data can be obtained.

Probability of cancer in pulmonary nodules detected on first screening CT.

PubMed

McWilliams, Annette; Tammemagi, Martin C; Mayo, John R; Roberts, Heidi; Liu, Geoffrey; Soghrati, Kam; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; Martel, Simon; Laberge, Francis; Gingras, Michel; Atkar-Khattra, Sukhinder; Berg, Christine D; Evans, Ken; Finley, Richard; Yee, John; English, John; Nasute, Paola; Goffin, John; Puksa, Serge; Stewart, Lori; Tsai, Scott; Johnston, Michael R; Manos, Daria; Nicholas, Garth; Goss, Glenwood D; Seely, Jean M; Amjadi, Kayvan; Tremblay, Alain; Burrowes, Paul; MacEachern, Paul; Bhatia, Rick; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Lam, Stephen

2013-09-05

Major issues in the implementation of screening for lung cancer by means of low-dose computed tomography (CT) are the definition of a positive result and the management of lung nodules detected on the scans. We conducted a population-based prospective study to determine factors predicting the probability that lung nodules detected on the first screening low-dose CT scans are malignant or will be found to be malignant on follow-up. We analyzed data from two cohorts of participants undergoing low-dose CT screening. The development data set included participants in the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study (PanCan). The validation data set included participants involved in chemoprevention trials at the British Columbia Cancer Agency (BCCA), sponsored by the U.S. National Cancer Institute. The final outcomes of all nodules of any size that were detected on baseline low-dose CT scans were tracked. Parsimonious and fuller multivariable logistic-regression models were prepared to estimate the probability of lung cancer. In the PanCan data set, 1871 persons had 7008 nodules, of which 102 were malignant, and in the BCCA data set, 1090 persons had 5021 nodules, of which 42 were malignant. Among persons with nodules, the rates of cancer in the two data sets were 5.5% and 3.7%, respectively. Predictors of cancer in the model included older age, female sex, family history of lung cancer, emphysema, larger nodule size, location of the nodule in the upper lobe, part-solid nodule type, lower nodule count, and spiculation. Our final parsimonious and full models showed excellent discrimination and calibration, with areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of more than 0.90, even for nodules that were 10 mm or smaller in the validation set. Predictive tools based on patient and nodule characteristics can be used to accurately estimate the probability that lung nodules detected on baseline screening low-dose CT scans are malignant. (Funded by the Terry Fox Research Institute and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00751660.).

Aging preserves the ability to perceive 3D object shape from static but not deforming boundary contours.

PubMed

Norman, J Farley; Bartholomew, Ashley N; Burton, Cory L

2008-09-01

A single experiment investigated how younger (aged 18-32 years) and older (aged 62-82 years) observers perceive 3D object shape from deforming and static boundary contours. On any given trial, observers were shown two smoothly-curved objects, similar to water-smoothed granite rocks, and were required to judge whether they possessed the "same" or "different" shape. The objects presented during the "different" trials produced differently-shaped boundary contours. The objects presented during the "same" trials also produced different boundary contours, because one of the objects was always rotated in depth relative to the other by 5, 25, or 45 degrees. Each observer participated in 12 experimental conditions formed by the combination of 2 motion types (deforming vs. static boundary contours), 2 surface types (objects depicted as silhouettes or with texture and Lambertian shading), and 3 angular offsets (5, 25, and 45 degrees). When there was no motion (static silhouettes or stationary objects presented with shading and texture), the older observers performed as well as the younger observers. In the moving object conditions with shading and texture, the older observers' performance was facilitated by the motion, but the amount of this facilitation was reduced relative to that exhibited by the younger observers. In contrast, the older observers obtained no benefit in performance at all from the deforming (i.e., moving) silhouettes. The reduced ability of older observers to perceive 3D shape from motion is probably due to a low-level deterioration in the ability to detect and discriminate motion itself.

Intermittent preventive antimalarial treatment for children with anaemia.

PubMed

Athuman, Mwaka; Kabanywanyi, Abdunoor M; Rohwer, Anke C

2015-01-13

Anaemia is a global public health problem. Children under five years of age living in developing countries (mostly Africa and South-East Asia) are highly affected. Although the causes for anaemia are multifactorial, malaria has been linked to anaemia in children living in malaria-endemic areas. Administering intermittent preventive antimalarial treatment (IPT) to children might reduce anaemia, since it could protect children from new Plasmodium parasite infection (the parasites that cause malaria) and allow their haemoglobin levels to recover. To assess the effect of IPT for children with anaemia living in malaria-endemic areas. We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in The Cochrane Library; MEDLINE; EMBASE; and LILACS. We also searched the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trial Registry Platform and metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) for ongoing trials up to 4 December 2014. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effect of IPT on children with anaemia. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We analysed data by conducting meta-analyses, stratifying data according to whether participants received iron supplements or not. We used GRADE to assess the quality of evidence. Six trials with 3847 participants met our inclusion criteria. Trials were conducted in areas of low malaria endemicity (three trials), and moderate to high endemicity (three trials). Four trials were in areas of seasonal malaria transmission. Iron was given to all children in two trials, and evaluated in a factorial design in a further two trials.IPT for children with anaemia probably has little or no effect on the proportion anaemic at 12 weeks follow-up (four trials, 2237 participants, (moderate quality evidence).IPT in anaemic children probably increases the mean change in haemoglobin levels from baseline to follow-up at 12 weeks on average by 0.32 g/dL (MD 0.32, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.45; four trials, 1672 participants, moderate quality evidence); and may improve haemoglobin levels at 12 weeks (MD 0.35, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.64; four trials, 1672 participants, low quality evidence). For both of these outcomes, subgroup analysis did not demonstrate a difference between children receiving iron and those that did not.IPT for children with anaemia probably has little or no effect on mortality or hospital admissions at six months (three trials, 3160 participants moderate quality evidence). Subgroup analysis did not show a difference between those children receiving iron supplements and those that did not. Trials did show a small effect on average haemoglobin levels but this did not appear to translate into an effect on mortality and hospital admissions. Three of the six trials were conducted in low endemicity areas where transmission is low and thus any protective effect is likely to be modest.

The nature of placebo response in clinical studies of major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Papakostas, George I; Østergaard, Søren D; Iovieno, Nadia

2015-04-01

To review factors influencing placebo response and clinical trial outcome in depression, and suggest ways to optimize trial success in mood disorders. PubMed searches were conducted by cross-referencing the terms depression, depressive with placebo, clinical trial, and clinical trials for studies published in English between 1970 and September 2013. Relevant abstracts were identified in PubMed, including clinical trials, quantitative studies, and qualitative research. We obtained and reviewed relevant articles and utilized their information to synthesize the present review. Included articles were grouped in the following areas of relevance: (1) biological validity of illness, (2) baseline severity of illness, (3) chronicity of the index episode of depression, (4) age of participants, (5) medical and psychiatric comorbidity, (6) probability of receiving placebo, (7) use of prospective treatment phases (lead-in) (8) dosing schedule, (9) trial duration, (10) frequency of follow-up assessments, and (11) study outcome measure. Several key elements emerge as critical to the ultimate success of a clinical trial, including the probability of receiving placebo, study duration, dosing schedule, visit frequency, the use of blinded lead-in phases, the use of centralized raters, illness severity and duration, and comorbid anxiety. Our increasing understanding of the placebo response in clinical trials of major depressive disorder lends to a, gradually, more predictable phenomenon and, hopefully, to one that becomes lesser in magnitude and variability. Several elements have emerged that seem to play a critical role in trial success, gradually reshaping the design of clinical, translational, as well as mechanistic studies in depression. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Signaled and Unsignaled Terminal Links in Concurrent Chains I: Effects of Reinforcer Probability and Immediacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mattson, Karla M.; Hucks, Andrew; Grace, Randolph C.; McLean, Anthony P.

2010-01-01

Eight pigeons responded in a three-component concurrent-chains procedure, with either independent or dependent initial links. Relative probability and immediacy of reinforcement in the terminal links were both varied, and outcomes on individual trials (reinforcement or nonreinforcement) were either signaled or unsignaled. Terminal-link fixed-time…

Relationship of Early Spontaneous Type V Blood Pressure Fluctuation after Thrombolysis in Acute Cerebral Infarction Patients and the Prognosis

PubMed Central

Zuo, Lian; Wan, Ting; Xu, Xiahong; Liu, Feifeng; Li, Changsong; Li, Ying; Zhang, Yue; Zhang, Jing; Bao, Huan; Li, Gang

2016-01-01

We examined the relationship between an early spontaneous type V blood pressure fluctuation and the post-thrombolysis prognosis of patients with acute cerebral infarction. Patients were admitted consecutively. All patients were categorized into the type V blood pressure fluctuation group or non-type V blood pressure group. Their blood pressure was monitored before thrombolysis and until 6 h after thrombolysis. Baseline data and clinical outcomes were compared. Of 170 patients, 43 (25.2%) had an early type V blood pressure fluctuation. The National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score before thrombolysis and 24 h after thrombolysis, and the modified Rankin scale score at 90 days differed significantly between the two groups (P < 0.05). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that an unfavorable prognosis at 3 months was associated with the NIHSS score before thrombolysis (P = 0.000) but probably not with this blood pressure fluctuation (P = 0.058). An early spontaneous type V blood pressure fluctuation is common in patients with acute cerebral infarction who received venous thrombolysis, especially if they have a higher NIHSS score before thrombolysis. The type V blood pressure fluctuation may not influence patients’ prognosis; however, this needs to be confirmed in future trials. PMID:27278121

Elapsed decision time affects the weighting of prior probability in a perceptual decision task

PubMed Central

Hanks, Timothy D.; Mazurek, Mark E.; Kiani, Roozbeh; Hopp, Elizabeth; Shadlen, Michael N.

2012-01-01

Decisions are often based on a combination of new evidence with prior knowledge of the probable best choice. Optimal combination requires knowledge about the reliability of evidence, but in many realistic situations, this is unknown. Here we propose and test a novel theory: the brain exploits elapsed time during decision formation to combine sensory evidence with prior probability. Elapsed time is useful because (i) decisions that linger tend to arise from less reliable evidence, and (ii) the expected accuracy at a given decision time depends on the reliability of the evidence gathered up to that point. These regularities allow the brain to combine prior information with sensory evidence by weighting the latter in accordance with reliability. To test this theory, we manipulated the prior probability of the rewarded choice while subjects performed a reaction-time discrimination of motion direction using a range of stimulus reliabilities that varied from trial to trial. The theory explains the effect of prior probability on choice and reaction time over a wide range of stimulus strengths. We found that prior probability was incorporated into the decision process as a dynamic bias signal that increases as a function of decision time. This bias signal depends on the speed-accuracy setting of human subjects, and it is reflected in the firing rates of neurons in the lateral intraparietal cortex (LIP) of rhesus monkeys performing this task. PMID:21525274

Elapsed decision time affects the weighting of prior probability in a perceptual decision task.

PubMed

Hanks, Timothy D; Mazurek, Mark E; Kiani, Roozbeh; Hopp, Elisabeth; Shadlen, Michael N

2011-04-27

Decisions are often based on a combination of new evidence with prior knowledge of the probable best choice. Optimal combination requires knowledge about the reliability of evidence, but in many realistic situations, this is unknown. Here we propose and test a novel theory: the brain exploits elapsed time during decision formation to combine sensory evidence with prior probability. Elapsed time is useful because (1) decisions that linger tend to arise from less reliable evidence, and (2) the expected accuracy at a given decision time depends on the reliability of the evidence gathered up to that point. These regularities allow the brain to combine prior information with sensory evidence by weighting the latter in accordance with reliability. To test this theory, we manipulated the prior probability of the rewarded choice while subjects performed a reaction-time discrimination of motion direction using a range of stimulus reliabilities that varied from trial to trial. The theory explains the effect of prior probability on choice and reaction time over a wide range of stimulus strengths. We found that prior probability was incorporated into the decision process as a dynamic bias signal that increases as a function of decision time. This bias signal depends on the speed-accuracy setting of human subjects, and it is reflected in the firing rates of neurons in the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) of rhesus monkeys performing this task.

Efficacy and safety of a biodegradable polymer Cobalt-Chromium sirolimus-eluting stent (EXCEL2) in treating de novo coronary artery disease: A pooled analysis of the CREDIT II and CREDIT III trials.

PubMed

Wang, Geng; Wang, Heyang; Xu, Bo; Yang, Yuejin; Yang, Zhiming; Li, Hui; Zhang, Zheng; Wang, Haichang; Yang, Lixia; Han, Yaling

2017-03-01

The safety and efficacy of the second-generation biodegradable polymer Cobalt-Chromium sirolimus-eluting stent (EXCEL2) in daily clinical practice remains unknown. Additionally, to meet the China Food and Drug Administration requirements, we conducted an objective performance criterion study from the CREDIT II and CREDIT III trials. CREDIT II was a randomized trial comparing the EXCEL2 versus EXCEL stent in patients with up to 2 de novo coronary lesions. CREDIT III was a prospective, single-arm study evaluating the efficacy and safety of EXCEL2 in broad types of de novo coronary artery lesions. This pooled analysis included patients in the CREDIT III and EXCEL2 arm of the CREDIT II trial. The primary outcome was 12-month target lesion failure (TLF), a composite of cardiac death, target vessel myocardial infarction (TV-MI), and clinical indicated target lesion revascularization (CI-TLR). The patient-oriented composite endpoint (PoCE) of all-cause death, all MI, or any revascularization was also analyzed. A total of 833 patients were included, consisting of 625 in the CREDIT III trial and 208 in the EXCEL2 arm of the CREDIT II trial. Twelve-month TLF occurred in 6.1% patients, cardiac death in 0.4%, TV-MI in 5%, and CI-TLR in 1.1%. Additionally, 64 (7.7%) PoCE and 3 probable late stent thromboses (0.4%) were recorded. EXCEL2 stent met the objective performance criterion on efficacy and safety with a low level of 12-month TLF as well as stent thrombosis when treating patients with de novo coronary lesions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Basal Insulin Regimens for Adults with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Dawoud, Dalia; O'Mahony, Rachel; Wonderling, David; Cobb, Jill; Higgins, Bernard; Amiel, Stephanie A

2018-02-01

To assess the relative efficacy and safety of basal insulin regimens in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). A systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials comparing two or more basal insulin regimens were conducted. The following basal insulin regimens were included: Neutral Protamine Hagedorn (iNPH) (once [od], twice [bid], and four times daily [qid]), insulin detemir (iDet) (od and bid), insulin glargine 100 IU (iGlarg) (od), and insulin degludec (iDegl) (od). We searched the following databases: MEDLINE via OVID, Embase via OVID, and the Cochrane Library (Wiley). Study quality was appraised using Cochrane risk-of-bias checklist for randomized controlled trials. Two outcomes (change in hemoglobin A 1c [HbA 1c ] and rate of severe/major hypoglycemia [SH]) were analyzed. Network inconsistency was assessed using Bucher and chi-square tests. Thirty studies met the eligibility criteria. Twenty-five were included in the HbA 1c network and 16 in the SH network. All studies were of moderate quality. No network inconsistency was evident in the HbA 1c network. Of the seven regimens of interest, iDet (bid) had the highest probability of being best (mean change in HbA 1c -0.48; 95% credible interval -0.69 to -0.29). In contrast, the SH network demonstrated both considerable uncertainty and significant network inconsistency (χ 2 test, P = 0.003). Of the specified frequency regimens, iDet (bid) had the highest probability of being the best basal insulin regimen in terms of reduction in HbA 1c . Ranking of the regimens in terms of the SH rate was highly uncertain and no clear conclusion could be made. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acute and second-meal effects of peanuts on glycaemic response and appetite in obese women with high type 2 diabetes risk: a randomised cross-over clinical trial.

PubMed

Reis, Caio E G; Ribeiro, Daniela N; Costa, Neuza M B; Bressan, Josefina; Alfenas, Rita C G; Mattes, Richard D

2013-06-01

Nut consumption is associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of adding peanuts (whole or peanut butter) on first (0-240 min)- and second (240-490 min)-meal glucose metabolism and selected gut satiety hormone responses, appetite ratings and food intake in obese women with high T2DM risk. A group of fifteen women participated in a randomised cross-over clinical trial in which 42·5 g of whole peanuts without skins (WP), peanut butter (PB) or no peanuts (control) were added to a 75 g available carbohydrate-matched breakfast meal. Postprandial concentrations (0-490 min) of glucose, insulin, NEFA, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), peptide YY (PYY), cholecystokinin (CCK), appetitive sensations and food intake were assessed after breakfast treatments and a standard lunch. Postprandial NEFA incremental AUC (IAUC) (0-240 min) and glucose IAUC (240-490 min) responses were lower for the PB breakfast compared with the control breakfast. Insulin concentrations were higher at 120 and 370 min after the PB consumption than after the control consumption. Desire-to-eat ratings were lower, while PYY, GLP-1 and CCK concentrations were higher after the PB intake compared with the control intake. WP led to similar but non-significant effects. The addition of PB to breakfast moderated postprandial glucose and NEFA concentrations, enhanced gut satiety hormone secretion and reduced the desire to eat. The greater bioaccessibility of the lipid component in PB is probably responsible for the observed incremental post-ingestive responses between the nut forms. Inclusion of PB, and probably WP, to breakfast may help to moderate glucose concentrations and appetite in obese women.

Validation of a prediction model for predicting the probability of morbidity related to a trial of labour in Quebec.

PubMed

Chaillet, Nils; Bujold, Emmanuel; Dubé, Eric; Grobman, William A

2012-09-01

Pregnant women with a history of previous Caesarean section face the decision either to undergo an elective repeat Caesarean section (ERCS) or to attempt a trial of labour with the goal of achieving a vaginal birth after Caesarean (VBAC). Both choices are associated with their own risks of maternal and neonatal morbidity. We aimed to determine the external validity of a prediction model for the success of trial of labour after Caesarean section (TOLAC) that could help these women in their decision-making. We used a perinatal database including 185,437 deliveries from 32 obstetrical centres in Quebec between 2007 and 2011 and selected women with one previous Caesarean section who were eligible for a TOLAC. We compared the frequency of maternal and neonatal morbidity between women who underwent TOLAC and those who underwent an ERCS according to the probability of success of TOLAC calculated from a published model of prediction. Of 8508 eligible women, including 3113 who underwent TOLAC, both maternal and neonatal morbidities became less frequent as the predicted chance of VBAC increased (P < 0.05). Women undergoing a TOLAC were more likely to have maternal morbidity than those who underwent an ERCS when the predicted probability of VBAC was less than 60% (relative risk [RR] 2.3; 95% CI 1.4 to 4.0); conversely, maternal morbidity was not different between the two groups when the predicted probability of VBAC was at least 60% (RR 0.8; 95% CI 0.6 to 1.1). Neonatal morbidity was similar between groups when the probability of VBAC success was 70% or greater (RR 1.2; 95% CI 0.9 to 1.5). The use of a prediction model for TOLAC success could be useful in the prediction of TOLAC success and perinatal morbidity in a Canadian population. Neither maternal nor neonatal morbidity are increased with a TOLAC when the probability of VBAC success is at least 70%.

Context Modulates Congruency Effects in Selective Attention to Social Cues.

PubMed

Ravagli, Andrea; Marini, Francesco; Marino, Barbara F M; Ricciardelli, Paola

2018-01-01

Head and gaze directions are used during social interactions as essential cues to infer where someone attends. When head and gaze are oriented toward opposite directions, we need to extract socially meaningful information despite stimulus conflict. Recently, a cognitive and neural mechanism for filtering-out conflicting stimuli has been identified while performing non-social attention tasks. This mechanism is engaged proactively when conflict is anticipated in a high proportion of trials and reactively when conflict occurs infrequently. Here, we investigated whether a similar mechanism is at play for limiting distraction from conflicting social cues during gaze or head direction discrimination tasks in contexts with different probabilities of conflict. Results showed that, for the gaze direction task only (Experiment 1), inverse efficiency (IE) scores for distractor-absent trials (i.e., faces with averted gaze and centrally oriented head) were larger (indicating worse performance) when these trials were intermixed with congruent/incongruent distractor-present trials (i.e., faces with averted gaze and tilted head in the same/opposite direction) relative to when the same distractor-absent trials were shown in isolation. Moreover, on distractor-present trials, IE scores for congruent (vs. incongruent) head-gaze pairs in blocks with rare conflict were larger than in blocks with frequent conflict, suggesting that adaptation to conflict was more efficient than adaptation to infrequent events. However, when the task required discrimination of head orientation while ignoring gaze direction, performance was not impacted by both block-level and current trial congruency (Experiment 2), unless the cognitive load of the task was increased by adding a concurrent task (Experiment 3). Overall, our study demonstrates that during attention to social cues proactive cognitive control mechanisms are modulated by the expectation of conflicting stimulus information at both the block- and trial-sequence level, and by the type of task and cognitive load. This helps to clarify the inherent differences in the distracting potential of head and gaze cues during speeded social attention tasks.

Placebo effects in psychiatry: mediators and moderators

PubMed Central

Weimer, Katja; Colloca, Luana; Enck, Paul

2015-01-01

A strong placebo response in psychiatric disorders has been noted for the past 50 years and various attempts have been made to identify predictors of it, by use of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials and laboratory studies. We reviewed 31 meta-analyses and systematic reviews of more than 500 randomised placebo-controlled trials across psychiatry (depression, schizophrenia, mania, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, autism, psychosis, binge-eating disorder, and addiction) for factors identified to be associated with increased placebo response. Of 20 factors discussed, only three were often linked to high placebo responses: low baseline severity of symptoms, more recent trials, and unbalanced randomisation (more patients randomly assigned to drug than placebo). Randomised controlled trials in non-drug therapy have not added further predictors, and laboratory studies with psychological, brain, and genetic approaches have not been successful in identifying predictors of placebo responses. This comprehensive Review suggests that predictors of the placebo response are still to be discovered, the response probably has more than one mediator, and that different and distinct moderators are probably what cause the placebo response within psychiatry and beyond. PMID:25815249

Revisiting sample size: are big trials the answer?

PubMed

Lurati Buse, Giovanna A L; Botto, Fernando; Devereaux, P J

2012-07-18

The superiority of the evidence generated in randomized controlled trials over observational data is not only conditional to randomization. Randomized controlled trials require proper design and implementation to provide a reliable effect estimate. Adequate random sequence generation, allocation implementation, analyses based on the intention-to-treat principle, and sufficient power are crucial to the quality of a randomized controlled trial. Power, or the probability of the trial to detect a difference when a real difference between treatments exists, strongly depends on sample size. The quality of orthopaedic randomized controlled trials is frequently threatened by a limited sample size. This paper reviews basic concepts and pitfalls in sample-size estimation and focuses on the importance of large trials in the generation of valid evidence.

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes and Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy on Incidence of Cognitive Impairment in Older Women

PubMed Central

Brinton, Roberta Diaz; Hugenschmidt, Christina; Manson, JoAnn E.; Craft, Suzanne; Yaffe, Kristine; Weitlauf, Julie; Vaughan, Leslie; Johnson, Karen C.; Padula, Claudia B.; Jackson, Rebecca D.; Resnick, Susan M.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE In older women, higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate the increased risk for cognitive impairment conveyed by diabetes. We examined whether the effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) on cognitive impairment incidence differs depending on type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trials assigned women to HT (0.625 mg/day conjugated equine estrogens with or without [i.e., unopposed] 2.5 mg/day medroxyprogesterone acetate) or matching placebo for an average of 4.7–5.9 years. A total of 7,233 women, aged 65–80 years, were classified according to type 2 diabetes status and followed for probable dementia and cognitive impairment (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). RESULTS Through a maximum of 18 years of follow-up, women with diabetes had increased risk of probable dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.54 [95% CI 1.16–2.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 1.83 [1.50–2.23]). The combination of diabetes and random assignment to HT increased their risk of dementia (HR 2.12 [1.47–3.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 2.20 [1.70–2.87]) compared with women without these conditions, interaction P = 0.09 and P = 0.08. These interactions appeared to be limited to women assigned to unopposed conjugated equine estrogens. CONCLUSIONS These analyses provide additional support to a prior report that higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate risks that type 2 diabetes poses for cognitive function in older women. The role estrogen plays in suppressing non–glucose-based energy sources in the brain may explain this interaction. PMID:26486190

Experimental estimation of snare detectability for robust threat monitoring.

PubMed

O'Kelly, Hannah J; Rowcliffe, J Marcus; Durant, Sarah; Milner-Gulland, E J

2018-02-01

Hunting with wire snares is rife within many tropical forest systems, and constitutes one of the severest threats to a wide range of vertebrate taxa. As for all threats, reliable monitoring of snaring levels is critical for assessing the relative effectiveness of management interventions. However, snares pose a particular challenge in terms of tracking spatial or temporal trends in their prevalence because they are extremely difficult to detect, and are typically spread across large, inaccessible areas. As with cryptic animal targets, any approach used to monitor snaring levels must address the issue of imperfect detection, but no standard method exists to do so. We carried out a field experiment in Keo Seima Wildlife Reserve in eastern Cambodia with the following objectives: (1) To estimate the detection probably of wire snares within a tropical forest context, and to investigate how detectability might be affected by habitat type, snare type, or observer. (2) To trial two sets of sampling protocols feasible to implement in a range of challenging field conditions. (3) To conduct a preliminary assessment of two potential analytical approaches to dealing with the resulting snare encounter data. We found that although different observers had no discernible effect on detection probability, detectability did vary between habitat type and snare type. We contend that simple repeated counts carried out at multiple sites and analyzed using binomial mixture models could represent a practical yet robust solution to the problem of monitoring snaring levels both inside and outside of protected areas. This experiment represents an important first step in developing improved methods of threat monitoring, and such methods are greatly needed in southeast Asia, as well as in as many other regions.

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes and Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy on Incidence of Cognitive Impairment in Older Women.

PubMed

Espeland, Mark A; Brinton, Roberta Diaz; Hugenschmidt, Christina; Manson, JoAnn E; Craft, Suzanne; Yaffe, Kristine; Weitlauf, Julie; Vaughan, Leslie; Johnson, Karen C; Padula, Claudia B; Jackson, Rebecca D; Resnick, Susan M

2015-12-01

In older women, higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate the increased risk for cognitive impairment conveyed by diabetes. We examined whether the effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) on cognitive impairment incidence differs depending on type 2 diabetes. The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trials assigned women to HT (0.625 mg/day conjugated equine estrogens with or without [i.e., unopposed] 2.5 mg/day medroxyprogesterone acetate) or matching placebo for an average of 4.7-5.9 years. A total of 7,233 women, aged 65-80 years, were classified according to type 2 diabetes status and followed for probable dementia and cognitive impairment (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). Through a maximum of 18 years of follow-up, women with diabetes had increased risk of probable dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.54 [95% CI 1.16-2.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 1.83 [1.50-2.23]). The combination of diabetes and random assignment to HT increased their risk of dementia (HR 2.12 [1.47-3.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 2.20 [1.70-2.87]) compared with women without these conditions, interaction P = 0.09 and P = 0.08. These interactions appeared to be limited to women assigned to unopposed conjugated equine estrogens. These analyses provide additional support to a prior report that higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate risks that type 2 diabetes poses for cognitive function in older women. The role estrogen plays in suppressing non-glucose-based energy sources in the brain may explain this interaction. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Temporal dynamics of choice behavior in rats and humans: an examination of pre- and post-choice latencies

PubMed Central

Fam, Justine; Westbrook, Fred; Arabzadeh, Ehsan

2016-01-01

Identifying similarities and differences in choice behavior across species is informative about how basic mechanisms give rise to more complex processes. In the present study, we compared pre- and post-choice latencies between rats and humans under two paradigms. In Experiment 1, we used a cued choice paradigm where subjects were presented with a cue that directed them as to which of two options to respond for rewards. In Experiment 2, subjects were free to choose between two options in order to procure rewards. In both Experiments rewards were delivered with distinct probabilities. The trial structure used in these experiments allowed the choice process to be decomposed into pre- and post-choice processes. Overall, post-choice latencies reflected the difference in reward probability between the two options, where latencies for the option with higher probability of reward were longer than those for the option with lower probability of reward. An interesting difference between rats and humans was observed: the choice behavior for humans, but not rats, was sensitive to the free-choice aspect of the tasks, such that in free-choice trials post-choice latencies no longer reflected the difference in reward probabilities between the two options. PMID:26862000

Do adverts increase the probability of finding online cognitive behavioural therapy for depression? Cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Goldsmith, Lesley; Hewson, Paul; Kamel Boulos, Maged N; Williams, Christopher J

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate the effect of online adverts on the probability of finding online cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for depression. Design Exploratory online cross-sectional study of search experience of people in the UK with depression in 2011. (1) The authors identified the search terms over 6 months entered by users who subsequently clicked on the advert for online help for depression. (2) A panel of volunteers across the UK recorded websites presented by normal Google search for the term ‘depression’. (iii) The authors examined these websites to estimate probabilities of knowledgeable and naive internet users finding online CBT and the improved probability by addition of a Google advert. Participants (1) 3868 internet users entering search terms related to depression into Google. (2) Panel, recruited online, of 12 UK participants with an interest in depression. Main outcome measures Probability of finding online CBT for depression with/without an advert. Results The 3868 users entered 1748 different search terms but the single keyword ‘depression’ resulted in two-thirds of the presentations of, and over half the ‘clicks’ on, the advert. In total, 14 different websites were presented to our panel in the first page of Google results for ‘depression’. Four of the 14 websites had links enabling access to online CBT in three clicks for knowledgeable users. Extending this approach to the 10 most frequent search terms, the authors estimated probabilities of finding online CBT as 0.29 for knowledgeable users and 0.006 for naive users, making it unlikely CBT would be found. Adding adverts that linked directly to online CBT increased the probabilities to 0.31 (knowledgeable) and 0.02 (naive). Conclusions In this case, online CBT was not easy to find and online adverts substantially increased the chance for naive users. Others could use this approach to explore additional impact before committing to long-term Google AdWords advertising budgets. Trial registration This exploratory case study was a substudy within a cluster randomised trial, registered on http://www.clinicaltrials.gov (reference: NCT01469689). (The trial will be reported subsequently). PMID:22508957

Desmopressin use for minimising perioperative blood transfusion

PubMed Central

Desborough, Michael J; Oakland, Kathryn; Brierley, Charlotte; Bennett, Sean; Doree, Carolyn; Trivella, Marialena; Hopewell, Sally; Stanworth, Simon J; Estcourt, Lise J

2017-01-01

Background Blood transfusion is administered during many types of surgery, but its efficacy and safety are increasingly questioned. Evaluation of the efficacy of agents, such as desmopressin (DDAVP; 1-deamino-8-D-arginine-vasopressin), that may reduce perioperative blood loss is needed. Objectives To examine the evidence for the efficacy of DDAVP in reducing perioperative blood loss and the need for red cell transfusion in people who do not have inherited bleeding disorders. Search methods We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2017, issue 3) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (from 1937), the Transfusion Evidence Library (from 1980), and ongoing trial databases (all searches to 3 April 2017). Selection criteria We included randomised controlled trials comparing DDAVP to placebo or an active comparator (e.g. tranexamic acid, aprotinin) before, during, or immediately after surgery or after invasive procedures in adults or children. Data collection and analysis We used the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. Main results We identified 65 completed trials (3874 participants) and four ongoing trials. Of the 65 completed trials, 39 focused on adult cardiac surgery, three on paediatric cardiac surgery, 12 on orthopaedic surgery, two on plastic surgery, and two on vascular surgery; seven studies were conducted in surgery for other conditions. These trials were conducted between 1986 and 2016, and 11 were funded by pharmaceutical companies or by a party with a commercial interest in the outcome of the trial. The GRADE quality of evidence was very low to moderate across all outcomes. No trial reported quality of life. DDAVP versus placebo or no treatment Trial results showed considerable heterogeneity between surgical settings for total volume of red cells transfused (low-quality evidence) and for total blood loss (very low-quality evidence) due to large differences in baseline blood loss. Consequently, these outcomes were not pooled and were reported in subgroups. Compared with placebo, DDAVP may slightly decrease the total volume of red cells transfused in adult cardiac surgery (mean difference (MD) -0.52 units, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.96 to -0.08 units; 14 trials, 957 participants), but may lead to little or no difference in orthopaedic surgery (MD -0.02, 95% CI -0.67 to 0.64 units; 6 trials, 303 participants), vascular surgery (MD 0.06, 95% CI -0.60 to 0.73 units; 2 trials, 135 participants), or hepatic surgery (MD -0.47, 95% CI -1.27 to 0.33 units; 1 trial, 59 participants). DDAVP probably leads to little or no difference in the total number of participants transfused with blood (risk ratio (RR) 0.96, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.06; 25 trials; 1806 participants) (moderate-quality evidence). Whether DDAVP decreases total blood loss in adult cardiac surgery (MD -135.24 mL, 95% CI -210.80 mL to -59.68 mL; 22 trials, 1358 participants), orthopaedic surgery (MD -285.76 mL, 95% CI -514.99 mL to -56.53 mL; 5 trials, 241 participants), or vascular surgery (MD -582.00 mL, 95% CI -1264.07 mL to 100.07 mL; 1 trial, 44 participants) is uncertain because the quality of evidence is very low. DDAVP probably leads to little or no difference in all-cause mortality (Peto odds ratio (pOR) 1.09, 95% CI 0.51 to 2.34; 22 trials, 1631 participants) or in thrombotic events (pOR 1.36, 95% CI, 0.85 to 2.16; 29 trials, 1984 participants) (both low-quality evidence). DDAVP versus placebo or no treatment for people with platelet dysfunction Compared with placebo, DDAVP may lead to a reduction in the total volume of red cells transfused (MD -0.65 units, 95% CI -1.16 to -0.13 units; 6 trials, 388 participants) (low-quality evidence) and in total blood loss (MD -253.93 mL, 95% CI -408.01 mL to -99.85 mL; 7 trials, 422 participants) (low-quality evidence). DDAVP probably leads to little or no difference in the total number of participants receiving a red cell transfusion (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.04; 5 trials, 258 participants) (moderate-quality evidence). Whether DDAVP leads to a difference in all-cause mortality (pOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.12 to 4.22; 7 trials; 422 participants) or in thrombotic events (pOR 1.58, 95% CI 0.60 to 4.17; 7 trials, 422 participants) is uncertain because the quality of evidence is very low. DDAVP versus tranexamic acid Compared with tranexamic acid, DDAVP may increase the volume of blood transfused (MD 0.6 units, 95% CI 0.09 to 1.11 units; 1 trial, 40 participants) and total blood loss (MD 142.81 mL, 95% CI 79.78 mL to 205.84 mL; 2 trials, 115 participants) (both low-quality evidence). Whether DDAVP increases or decreases the total number of participants transfused with blood is uncertain because the quality of evidence is very low (RR 2.42, 95% CI 1.04 to 5.64; 3 trials, 135 participants). No trial reported all-cause mortality. Whether DDAVP leads to a difference in thrombotic events is uncertain because the quality of evidence is very low (pOR 2.92, 95% CI 0.32 to 26.83; 2 trials, 115 participants). DDAVP versus aprotinin Compared with aprotinin, DDAVP probably increases the total number of participants transfused with blood (RR 2.41, 95% CI 1.45 to 4.02; 1 trial, 99 participants) (moderate-quality evidence). No trials reported volume of blood transfused or total blood loss and the single trial that included mortality as an outcome reported no deaths. Whether DDAVP leads to a difference in thrombotic events is uncertain because the quality of evidence is very low (pOR 0.98, 95% CI 0.06 to 15.89; 2 trials, 152 participants). Authors’ conclusions Most of the evidence derived by comparing DDAVP versus placebo was obtained in cardiac surgery, where DDAVP was administered after cardiopulmonary bypass. In adults undergoing cardiac surgery, the reduction in volume of red cells transfused and total blood loss was small and was unlikely to be clinically important. It is less clear whether DDAVP may be of benefit for children and for those undergoing non-cardiac surgery. A key area for researchers is examining the effects of DDAVP for people with platelet dysfunction. Few trials have compared DDAVP versus tranexamic acid or aprotinin; consequently, we are uncertain of the relative efficacy of these interventions. PMID:28691229

On the Effects of Signaling Reinforcer Probability and Magnitude in Delayed Matching to Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Glenn S.; White, K. Geoffrey

2005-01-01

Two experiments examined whether postsample signals of reinforcer probability or magnitude affected the accuracy of delayed matching to sample in pigeons. On each trial, red or green choice responses that matched red or green stimuli seen shortly before a variable retention interval were reinforced with wheat access. In Experiment 1, the…

Clinician-targeted interventions to influence antibiotic prescribing behaviour for acute respiratory infections in primary care: an overview of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Tonkin-Crine, Sarah Kg; Tan, Pui San; van Hecke, Oliver; Wang, Kay; Roberts, Nia W; McCullough, Amanda; Hansen, Malene Plejdrup; Butler, Christopher C; Del Mar, Chris B

2017-09-07

Antibiotic resistance is a worldwide health threat. Interventions that reduce antibiotic prescribing by clinicians are expected to reduce antibiotic resistance. Disparate interventions to change antibiotic prescribing behaviour for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) have been trialled and meta-analysed, but not yet synthesised in an overview. This overview synthesises evidence from systematic reviews, rather than individual trials. To systematically review the existing evidence from systematic reviews on the effects of interventions aimed at influencing clinician antibiotic prescribing behaviour for ARIs in primary care. We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Science Citation Index to June 2016. We also searched the reference lists of all included reviews. We ran a pre-publication search in May 2017 and placed additional studies in 'awaiting classification'.We included both Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews of randomised controlled trials evaluating the effect of any clinician-focussed intervention on antibiotic prescribing behaviour in primary care. Two overview authors independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of included reviews using the ROBIS tool, with disagreements reached by consensus or by discussion with a third overview author. We used the GRADE system to assess the quality of evidence in included reviews. The results are presented as a narrative overview. We included eight reviews in this overview: five Cochrane Reviews (33 included trials) and three non-Cochrane reviews (11 included trials). Three reviews (all Cochrane Reviews) scored low risk across all the ROBIS domains in Phase 2 and low risk of bias overall. The remaining five reviews scored high risk on Domain 4 of Phase 2 because the 'Risk of bias' assessment had not been specifically considered and discussed in the review Results and Conclusions. The trials included in the reviews varied in both size and risk of bias. Interventions were compared to usual care.Moderate-quality evidence indicated that C-reactive protein (CRP) point-of-care testing (risk ratio (RR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.92, 3284 participants, 6 trials), shared decision making (odds ratio (OR) 0.44, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.75, 3274 participants, 3 trials; RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.84, 4623 participants, 2 trials; risk difference -18.44, 95% CI -27.24 to -9.65, 481,807 participants, 4 trials), and procalcitonin-guided management (adjusted OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.14, 1008 participants, 2 trials) probably reduce antibiotic prescribing in general practice. We found moderate-quality evidence that procalcitonin-guided management probably reduces antibiotic prescribing in emergency departments (adjusted OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.43, 2605 participants, 7 trials). The overall effect of these interventions was small (few achieving greater than 50% reduction in antibiotic prescribing, most about a quarter or less), but likely to be clinically important.Compared to usual care, shared decision making probably makes little or no difference to reconsultation for the same illness (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.03, 1860 participants, 4 trials, moderate-quality evidence), and may make little or no difference to patient satisfaction (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.30, 1110 participants, 2 trials, low-quality evidence). Similarly, CRP testing probably has little or no effect on patient satisfaction (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.08, 689 participants, 2 trials, moderate-quality evidence) or reconsultation (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.27, 5132 participants, 4 trials, moderate-quality evidence). Procalcitonin-guided management probably results in little or no difference in treatment failure in general practice compared to normal care (adjusted OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.24, 1008 participants, 2 trials, moderate-quality evidence), however it probably reduces treatment failure in the emergency department compared to usual care (adjusted OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.95, 2605 participants, 7 trials, moderate-quality evidence).The quality of evidence for interventions focused on clinician educational materials and decision support in reducing antibiotic prescribing in general practice was either low or very low (no pooled result reported) and trial results were highly heterogeneous, therefore we were unable draw conclusions about the effects of these interventions. The use of rapid viral diagnostics in emergency departments may have little or no effect on antibiotic prescribing (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.22, 891 participants, 3 trials, low-quality evidence) and may result in little to no difference in reconsultation (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.25, 200 participants, 1 trial, low-quality evidence).None of the trials in the included reviews reported on management costs for the treatment of an ARI or any associated complications. We found evidence that CRP testing, shared decision making, and procalcitonin-guided management reduce antibiotic prescribing for patients with ARIs in primary care. These interventions may therefore reduce overall antibiotic consumption and consequently antibiotic resistance. There do not appear to be negative effects of these interventions on the outcomes of patient satisfaction and reconsultation, although there was limited measurement of these outcomes in the trials. This should be rectified in future trials.We could gather no information about the costs of management, and this along with the paucity of measurements meant that it was difficult to weigh the benefits and costs of implementing these interventions in practice.Most of this research was undertaken in high-income countries, and it may not generalise to other settings. The quality of evidence for the interventions of educational materials and tools for patients and clinicians was either low or very low, which prevented us from drawing any conclusions. High-quality trials are needed to further investigate these interventions.

Analysis of Participant Withdrawal in Huntington Disease Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Banno, Haruhiko; Andrzejewski, Kelly L; McDermott, Michael P; Murphy, Alyssa; Majumder, Madhurima; de Blieck, Elisabeth A; Auinger, Peggy; Cudkowicz, Merit E; Atassi, Nazem

2017-01-01

Excellent retention in Huntington disease (HD) clinical trials is essential for testing new therapies. The stage of disease, cognitive status, and availability of a care partner may influence retention in HD clinical trials. We sought to analyze reasons for early withdrawal in three HD clinical trials, and evaluated if either baseline characteristics or follow-up assessments were associated with time to withdrawal. Analyses of participant withdrawal were performed for three randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials including the CARE-HD (coenzyme Q10 and remacemide in HD, n = 347), DOMINO (pilot study of minocycline in HD, n = 114), and 2CARE (coenzyme Q10 in HD, n = 609) trials. Reasons for withdrawal were obtained by review of textual data in the study databases. Participant demographic and clinical characteristics were analyzed as potential predictors of time to withdrawal using Cox-proportional hazards models. Estimated probabilities of withdrawal at 12 months were 2.9% for CARE-HD, 10.5% for DOMINO, and 5.9% for 2CARE. The top reasons for withdrawal (202 in total), expressed as mean percentage across the three trials, were loss to follow-up (23.2%), death (15.9%), and loss of interest/desire to participate (15.2%). Baseline and time-dependent variables associated with time to withdrawal were mainly motor, behavioral, and functional scores. Age, gender, ethnicity, and educational level were not associated with time to withdrawal in any of the three studies. The estimated withdrawal probability at 12 months ranged from 2.9% to 10.5% in the three HD trials considered here. A possible strategy to improve retention of participants in future HD clinical trials is to enroll individuals with higher baseline functional and behavioral status.

Does prevalence matter to physicians in estimating post-test probability of disease? A randomized trial.

PubMed

Agoritsas, Thomas; Courvoisier, Delphine S; Combescure, Christophe; Deom, Marie; Perneger, Thomas V

2011-04-01

The probability of a disease following a diagnostic test depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the test, but also on the prevalence of the disease in the population of interest (or pre-test probability). How physicians use this information is not well known. To assess whether physicians correctly estimate post-test probability according to various levels of prevalence and explore this skill across respondent groups. Randomized trial. Population-based sample of 1,361 physicians of all clinical specialties. We described a scenario of a highly accurate screening test (sensitivity 99% and specificity 99%) in which we randomly manipulated the prevalence of the disease (1%, 2%, 10%, 25%, 95%, or no information). We asked physicians to estimate the probability of disease following a positive test (categorized as <60%, 60-79%, 80-94%, 95-99.9%, and >99.9%). Each answer was correct for a different version of the scenario, and no answer was possible in the "no information" scenario. We estimated the proportion of physicians proficient in assessing post-test probability as the proportion of correct answers beyond the distribution of answers attributable to guessing. Most respondents in each of the six groups (67%-82%) selected a post-test probability of 95-99.9%, regardless of the prevalence of disease and even when no information on prevalence was provided. This answer was correct only for a prevalence of 25%. We estimated that 9.1% (95% CI 6.0-14.0) of respondents knew how to assess correctly the post-test probability. This proportion did not vary with clinical experience or practice setting. Most physicians do not take into account the prevalence of disease when interpreting a positive test result. This may cause unnecessary testing and diagnostic errors.

Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet: A Multifaceted Approach to Bringing Disease-Modifying Therapy to Clinical Use in Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Bingley, Polly J; Wherrett, Diane K; Shultz, Ann; Rafkin, Lisa E; Atkinson, Mark A; Greenbaum, Carla J

2018-04-01

What will it take to bring disease-modifying therapy to clinical use in type 1 diabetes? Coordinated efforts of investigators involved in discovery, translational, and clinical research operating in partnership with funders and industry and in sync with regulatory agencies are needed. This Perspective describes one such effort, Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet, a National Institutes of Health-funded and JDRF-supported international clinical trials network that emerged from the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1). Through longitudinal natural history studies, as well as trials before and after clinical onset of disease combined with mechanistic and ancillary investigations to enhance scientific understanding and translation to clinical use, TrialNet is working to bring disease-modifying therapies to individuals with type 1 diabetes. Moreover, TrialNet uses its expertise and experience in clinical studies to increase efficiencies in the conduct of trials and to reduce the burden of participation on individuals and families. Herein, we highlight key contributions made by TrialNet toward a revised understanding of the natural history of disease and approaches to alter disease course and outline the consortium's plans for the future. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.

Factors behind nonadherence to diet regimens among obese adults in Tanta, Egypt: a case-control study.

PubMed

Abo Ali, Ehab A; Atlam, Salwa A; Ghareeb, Wessam A

2016-03-01

Nonadherence to diet regimens is a major cause of treatment failure in the field of obesity management. It varies according to the study design and the type of intervention. In weight loss clinical trials, nonadherence rates range from 10 to 80%. Strategies to reduce dropout rates rely on precise identification of factors leading to premature program termination. The aim of this research was to study factors behind nonadherence to diet regimens among obese adults in Tanta, Egypt. A retrospective, case-control study was carried out during the year 2014 in an obesity management private clinic in Tanta, Gharbia Governorate, Egypt. The study included two groups of 150 participants each (adherents and nonadherents) matched for sex and BMI. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data concerning sociodemographic characteristics, weight changes, dieting, and behavioral, psychological, and medical factors. Personal perspectives on potential factors contributing to nonadherence to diet regimens were also investigated. Factors significantly associated with probabilities high probability of to loss of adherence to diet regimens were as follows: younger age, urban residence, higher educational levels, obesity of grades I and III, a higher frequency of previous weight loss trials, consumption of fruits and vegetables less than that recommended (<5 times/day), higher weight loss expectations, and binge eating. The most common personal perspectives on causes limiting adherence to diet regimens were as follows: unsatisfactory results (37.3%), difficulties in dieting practices (33.3%), logistics (30.0%), and fading of motives (27.3%). Obese individuals seeking weight reduction with young age, urban residence, higher educational levels, a higher frequency of previous weight loss trials, higher weight loss expectations, and those with perceived unsatisfactory results are more prone to lose their adherence to diet regimens. Individuals with factors of nonadherence should receive extra care to avoid their withdrawal from diet programs and to improve clinical outcomes.

Outcomes with various drug eluting or bare metal stents in patients with diabetes mellitus: mixed treatment comparison analysis of 22 844 patient years of follow-up from randomised trials

PubMed Central

Kumar, Sunil; Fusaro, Mario; Amoroso, Nicholas; Kirtane, Ajay J; Byrne, Robert A; Williams, David O; Slater, James; Cutlip, Donald E; Feit, Frederick

2012-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the efficacy and safety of currently used drug eluting stents compared with each other and compared with bare metal stents in patients with diabetes. Design Mixed treatment comparison meta-analysis. Data sources and study selection PubMed, Embase, and CENTRAL were searched for randomised clinical trials, until April 2012, of four durable polymer drug eluting stents (sirolimus eluting stents, paclitaxel eluting stents, everolimus eluting stents, and zotarolimus eluting stents) compared with each other or with bare metal stents for the treatment of de novo coronary lesions and enrolling at least 50 patients with diabetes. Primary outcomes Efficacy (target vessel revascularisation) and safety (death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis). Results From 42 trials with 22 844 patient years of follow-up, when compared with bare metal stents (reference rate ratio 1) all of the currently used drug eluting stents were associated with a significant reduction in target vessel revascularisation (37% to 69%), though the efficacy varied with the type of stent (everolimus eluting stents∼sirolimus eluting stents>paclitaxel eluting stents∼zotarolimus eluting stent>bare metal stents). There was about an 87% probability that everolimus eluting stents were the most efficacious compared with all others, though there were limited usable data for the zotarolimus eluting Resolute stent in patients with diabetes. Moreover, there was no increased risk of any safety outcome (including very late stent thrombosis) with any drug eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. There was about a 62% probability that the everolimus eluting stent was the safest stent for the outcome of “any” stent thrombosis. Conclusions Among patients with diabetes treated with coronary stents all currently available drug eluting stents were efficacious without compromising safety compared with bare metal stents. There were relative differences among the drug eluting stents, such that the everolimus eluting stent was the most efficacious and safe. PMID:22885395

The evidence for immunotherapy in dermatomyositis and polymyositis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Vermaak, Erin; Tansley, Sarah L; McHugh, Neil J

2015-12-01

Dermatomyositis and polymyositis are rare chronic inflammatory disorders with significant associated morbidity and mortality despite treatment. High-dose corticosteroids in addition to other interventions such as immunosuppressants, immunomodulators, and more recently, biologics are commonly used in clinical practice; however, there are no clear guidelines directing their use. Our objective was to systematically review the evidence for immunotherapy in the treatment of dermatomyositis and polymyositis. Relevant studies were identified through Embase and PubMed database searches. Trials were selected using pre-determined selection criteria and then assessed for quality. Randomized controlled trials and experimental studies without true randomization and including adult patients with definite or probable dermatomyositis or polymyositis were evaluated. Any type of immunotherapy was considered. Clinical improvement, judged by assessment of muscle strength after 6 months, was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included IMACS definition of improvement, improvements in patient and physician global scores, physical function, and muscle enzymes. Twelve studies met eligibility criteria. Differences in trial design, quality, and variable reporting of baseline characteristics and outcomes made direct comparison impossible. Although no treatment can be recommended on the basis of this review, improved outcomes were demonstrated with a number of agents including methotrexate, azathioprine, ciclosporin, rituximab, and intravenous immunoglobulin. Plasmapheresis and leukapheresis were of no apparent benefit. More high-quality randomized controlled trials are needed to establish the role of immunosuppressive agents in the treatment of these conditions and the clinical context in which they are most likely to be beneficial.

Sample Size Determination for Rasch Model Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draxler, Clemens

2010-01-01

This paper is concerned with supplementing statistical tests for the Rasch model so that additionally to the probability of the error of the first kind (Type I probability) the probability of the error of the second kind (Type II probability) can be controlled at a predetermined level by basing the test on the appropriate number of observations.…

A lethal ovitrap-based mass trapping scheme for dengue control in Australia: I. Public acceptability and performance of lethal ovitraps.

PubMed

Ritchie, S A; Rapley, L P; Williams, C; Johnson, P H; Larkman, M; Silcock, R M; Long, S A; Russell, R C

2009-12-01

We report on the first field evaluation of the public acceptability and performance of two types of lethal ovitrap (LO) in three separate trials in Cairns, Australia. Health workers were able to set standard lethal ovitraps (SLOs) in 75 and 71% of premise yards in the wet and dry season, respectively, and biodegradable lethal ovitraps (BLOs) in 93% of yards. Public acceptance, measured as retention of traps by residents, was high for both trap types, with <9% of traps missing after 4 weeks. Traps retaining water after 4 weeks were 78 and 34% for the two SLO trials and 58% for the BLOs. The 'failure rate' in the 535 BLOs set in the field for 4 weeks was 47%, of which 19% were lost, 51% had holes from probable insect chewing, 23% were knocked over, 7% had dried by evaporation and 1% were split. There was no significant difference in the failure rate of BLOs set on porous (grass, soil and mulch) versus solid (tiles, concrete, wood and stone) substrates. The SLOs and the BLOs were readily acceptable to ovipositing Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae); the mean number of eggs/trap was 6 and 15, for the dry season and wet season SLO trial, respectively, and 15 for the BLO wet season trial. Indeed, 84-94% of premise yards had egg positive SLOs or BLOs. A high percentage of both wet and dry season SLOs (29 and 70%, respectively) and BLOs (62%) that were dry after 4 weeks were egg positive, indicating the traps had functioned. Lethal strips from SLOs and BLOs that had been exposed for 4 weeks killed 83 and 74%, respectively, of gravid Ae. aegypti in laboratory assays. These results indicate that mass trapping schemes using SLOs and BLOs are not rejected by the public and effectively target gravid Ae. aegypti. The impact of the interventions on mosquito populations is described in a companion paper.

Target haemoglobin to aim for with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents: a position statement by ERBP following publication of the Trial to reduce cardiovascular events with Aranesp therapy (TREAT) study.

PubMed

Locatelli, Francesco; Aljama, Pedro; Canaud, Bernard; Covic, Adrian; De Francisco, Angel; Macdougall, Iain C; Wiecek, Andrzej; Vanholder, Raymond

2010-09-01

The European Renal Best Practice (ERBP), which are issued by ERA-EDTA, are suggestions for clinical practice in areas in which evidence is lacking or weak, together with position statements on recently published randomized controlled trials, or on existing guidelines and recommendations. In 2009, the Anaemia Working Group of ERBP published its first position statement about the haemoglobin target to aim for with erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESA) and on issues that were not covered by K-DOQI in 2006-07. This second position paper of the group follows the publication of the Trial to Reduce Cardiovascular Events with Aranesp Therapy (TREAT) Study. This multi-centre, placebo-controlled trial compared cardiovascular and renal outcomes in 4038 patients with type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease not on dialysis, and anaemia who were randomized to complete anaemia correction (haemoglobin target of 13 g/dL using darbepoetin alpha) or placebo (with a haemoglobin rescue value of 9 g/dL). Following the findings of the TREAT study, the Anaemia Working Group of ERBP maintains its view that 'Hb values of 11-12 g/dL should be generally sought in the CKD population without intentionally exceeding 13 g/dL' and that the doses of ESA therapy to achieve the target haemoglobin should also be considered. More caution is suggested when treating anaemia with ESA therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes not undergoing dialysis (and probably in diabetics at all CKD stages). In those with ischaemic heart disease or with a previous history of stroke, possible benefits should be weighed up against an increased risk of stroke recurrence, when deciding which Hb level to aim for. These recommendations are not intended to represent a new guideline as they are not the result of a systematic review of the evidence.

Practical experiences of adopting assurance as a quantitative framework to support decision making in drug development.

PubMed

Crisp, Adam; Miller, Sam; Thompson, Douglas; Best, Nicky

2018-04-10

All clinical trials are designed for success of their primary objectives. Hence, evaluating the probability of success (PoS) should be a key focus at the design stage both to support funding approval from sponsor governance boards and to inform trial design itself. Use of assurance-that is, expected success probability averaged over a prior probability distribution for the treatment effect-to quantify PoS of a planned study has grown across the industry in recent years, and has now become routine within the authors' company. In this paper, we illustrate some of the benefits of systematically adopting assurance as a quantitative framework to support decision making in drug development through several case-studies where evaluation of assurance has proved impactful in terms of trial design and in supporting governance-board reviews of project proposals. In addition, we describe specific features of how the assurance framework has been implemented within our company, highlighting the critical role that prior elicitation plays in this process, and illustrating how the overall assurance calculation may be decomposed into a sequence of conditional PoS estimates which can provide greater insight into how and when different development options are able to discharge risk. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The difference between a dynamic and mechanical approach to stroke treatment.

PubMed

Helgason, Cathy M

2007-06-01

The current classification of stroke is based on causation, also called pathogenesis, and relies on binary logic faithful to the Aristotelian tradition. Accordingly, a pathology is or is not the cause of the stroke, is considered independent of others, and is the target for treatment. It is the subject for large double-blind randomized clinical therapeutic trials. The scientific view behind clinical trials is the fundamental concept that information is statistical, and causation is determined by probabilities. Therefore, the cause and effect relation will be determined by probability-theory-based statistics. This is the basis of evidence-based medicine, which calls for the results of such trials to be the basis for physician decisions regarding diagnosis and treatment. However, there are problems with the methodology behind evidence-based medicine. Calculations using probability-theory-based statistics regarding cause and effect are performed within an automatic system where there are known inputs and outputs. This method of research provides a framework of certainty with no surprise elements or outcomes. However, it is not a system or method that will come up with previously unknown variables, concepts, or universal principles; it is not a method that will give a new outcome; and it is not a method that allows for creativity, expertise, or new insight for problem solving.

Functional mechanisms of probabilistic inference in feature- and space-based attentional systems.

PubMed

Dombert, Pascasie L; Kuhns, Anna; Mengotti, Paola; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2016-11-15

Humans flexibly attend to features or locations and these processes are influenced by the probability of sensory events. We combined computational modeling of response times with fMRI to compare the functional correlates of (re-)orienting, and the modulation by probabilistic inference in spatial and feature-based attention systems. Twenty-four volunteers performed two task versions with spatial or color cues. Percentage of cue validity changed unpredictably. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to derive trial-wise estimates of probability-dependent attention, entering the fMRI analysis as parametric regressors. Attentional orienting activated a dorsal frontoparietal network in both tasks, without significant parametric modulation. Spatially invalid trials activated a bilateral frontoparietal network and the precuneus, while invalid feature trials activated the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS). Probability-dependent attention modulated activity in the precuneus, left posterior IPS, middle occipital gyrus, and right temporoparietal junction for spatial attention, and in the left anterior IPS for feature-based and spatial attention. These findings provide novel insights into the generality and specificity of the functional basis of attentional control. They suggest that probabilistic inference can distinctively affect each attentional subsystem, but that there is an overlap in the left IPS, which responds to both spatial and feature-based expectancy violations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Causality link in criminal law: role of epidemiology].

PubMed

Zocchetti, C; Riboldi, L

2003-01-01

This paper focusses on the role of epidemiology in demonstrating causality in criminal trials of toxic tort litigation. First of all, consideration is given of the specificity of the criminal trial and of the role of the epidemiologist as expert witness. As a second step the concept of causality is examined separating general from specific (individual level) causality. As regards general causality, strategies based on some criteria (example: Bradford-Hill criteria) are contrasted with approaches that do not consider causality a matter of science but one of health policy; and specific methods frequently used (meta-analysis, risk assessment, International Boards evaluation,....) are discussed, with special reference to the adoption of high-level standards and to the context of cross-examination. As regards individual level causality the difficulties of the epidemiologic approach to such evaluation are stressed, with special reference to topics like expected value, attributable risk, and probability of causation. All examples are taken from Italian court trials. A general comment on the difficulties of using the criminal trial (dominated by the "but for" rule) for toxic tort litigation and on the opportunity to switch to trials (civil, administrative) with less stringent causal rules ("more probable than not") is offered, with a consideration also of what are called "class actions".

Counter-Aggression as a Function of Physical Aggression: Reciprocity for Harm Done.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helm, Bob; And Others

Sixty males received either one, 5, or 9 electric shocks of varying magnitude from a confederate during a 10-trial probability estimation task. Following initial trials, subject and confederate reversed roles, and subjects were permitted equal opportunity to counter-aggress against the confederate. One-half the subjects had been forewarned of role…

I Remember You: Independence and the Binomial Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Douglas W.; Rockhill, Beverly

2006-01-01

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

Clinical trial spots for cancer patients by tumor type: The cancer trials portfolio at clinicaltrials.gov

PubMed Central

Prasad, Vinay; Goldstein, Jeffery A.

2015-01-01

Background Although participation in cancer clinical trials is low, little is known about the number of available clinical trials, and open spots for patients. Moreover, it is unclear what the relationship is between clinical trial openings and the incidence and mortality of cancer subtypes. Methodology We identified the number of phase I, phase II, and phase III registered at clinicaltrials.gov by cancer (tumor) type. All counts were over the preceding 5 years (2008 to 2013). We compared these counts against the incidence and prevalence of disease reported by Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for 32 common cancers Results From 2008 to 2013, 3879 phase I trials, 4982 phase II trials and 1379 phase III trials concerning a cancer subtype were registered in clinicaltrials.gov. These trials had a cumulative proposed recruitment of 203396, 421502, and 697787 patients, respectively. Trial enrollment varied by tumor type, with both over and under-representation occurring. Conclusion Opportunities to enroll in clinical trials vary by phase and tumor type. Oncologists must remain committed to clinical trials. PMID:26321010

Clinical trial spots for cancer patients by tumour type: The cancer trials portfolio at clinicaltrials.gov.

PubMed

Prasad, Vinay; Goldstein, Jeffery A

2015-11-01

Although participation in cancer clinical trials is low, little is known about the number of available clinical trials, and open spots for patients. Moreover, it is unclear what the relationship is between clinical trial openings and the incidence and mortality of cancer subtypes. We identified the number of phase I, phase II and phase III registered at clinicaltrials.gov by cancer (tumour) type. All counts were over the preceding 5 years (2008-2013). We compared these counts against the incidence and prevalence of disease reported by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database for 32 common cancers. From 2008 to 2013, 3879 phase I trials, 4982 phase II trials and 1379 phase III trials concerning a cancer subtype were registered in clinicaltrials.gov. These trials had a cumulative proposed recruitment of 203,396, 421,502 and 697,787 patients, respectively. Trial enrollment varied by tumour type, with both over and under-representation occurring. Opportunities to enroll in clinical trials vary by phase and tumour type. Oncologists must remain committed to clinical trials. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Twenty-year perspective of randomized controlled trials for surgery of chronic nonspecific low back pain: citation bias and tangential knowledge.

PubMed

Andrade, Nicholas S; Flynn, John P; Bartanusz, Viktor

2013-11-01

After decades of clinical research, the role of surgery for chronic nonspecific low back pain (CNLBP) remains equivocal. Despite significant intellectual, human, and economic investments into randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the past two decades, the role of surgery in the treatment for CNLBP has not been clarified. To delineate the historical research agenda of surgical RCTs for CNLBP performed between 1993 and 2012 investigating whether conclusions from earlier published trials influenced the choice of research questions of subsequent RCTs on elucidating the role of surgery in the management of CNLBP. Literature review. We searched the literature for all RCTs involving surgery for CNLBP. We reviewed relevant studies to identify the study question, comparator arms, and sample size. Randomized controlled trials were classified as "indication" trials if they evaluated the effectiveness of surgical therapy versus nonoperative care or as "technical" if they compared different surgical techniques, adjuncts, or procedures. We used citation analysis to determine the impact of trials on subsequent research in the field. Altogether 33 technical RCTs (3,790 patients) and 6 indication RCTs (981 patients) have been performed. Since 2007, despite the unclear benefits of surgery reported by the first four indication trials published in 2001 to 2006, technical trials have continued to predominate (16 vs. 2). Of the technical trials, types of instrumentation (13 trials, 1,332 patients), bone graft materials and substitutes (11 trials, 833 patients), and disc arthroplasty versus fusion (5 trials, 1,337 patients) were the most common comparisons made. Surgeon authors have predominantly cited one of the indication trials that reported more favorable results for surgery, despite a lack of superior methodology or sample size. Trials evaluating bone morphogenic protein, instrumentation, and disc arthroplasty were all cited more frequently than the largest trial of surgical versus nonsurgical therapy. The research agenda of RCTs for surgery of CNLBP has not changed substantially in the last 20 years. Technical trials evaluating nuances of surgical techniques significantly predominate. Despite the publication of four RCTs reporting equivocal benefits of surgery for CNLBP between 2001 and 2006, there was no change in the research agenda of subsequent RCTs, and technical trials continued to outnumber indication trials. Rather than clarifying what, if any, indications for surgery exist, investigators in the field continue to analyze variations in surgical technique, which will probably have relatively little impact on patient outcomes. As a result, clinicians unfortunately have little evidence to advise patients regarding surgical intervention for CNLBP. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of bias-corrected covariance estimators for MMRM analysis in longitudinal data with dropouts.

PubMed

Gosho, Masahiko; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Noma, Hisashi; Maruo, Kazushi; Sato, Yasunori

2017-10-01

In longitudinal clinical trials, some subjects will drop out before completing the trial, so their measurements towards the end of the trial are not obtained. Mixed-effects models for repeated measures (MMRM) analysis with "unstructured" (UN) covariance structure are increasingly common as a primary analysis for group comparisons in these trials. Furthermore, model-based covariance estimators have been routinely used for testing the group difference and estimating confidence intervals of the difference in the MMRM analysis using the UN covariance. However, using the MMRM analysis with the UN covariance could lead to convergence problems for numerical optimization, especially in trials with a small-sample size. Although the so-called sandwich covariance estimator is robust to misspecification of the covariance structure, its performance deteriorates in settings with small-sample size. We investigated the performance of the sandwich covariance estimator and covariance estimators adjusted for small-sample bias proposed by Kauermann and Carroll ( J Am Stat Assoc 2001; 96: 1387-1396) and Mancl and DeRouen ( Biometrics 2001; 57: 126-134) fitting simpler covariance structures through a simulation study. In terms of the type 1 error rate and coverage probability of confidence intervals, Mancl and DeRouen's covariance estimator with compound symmetry, first-order autoregressive (AR(1)), heterogeneous AR(1), and antedependence structures performed better than the original sandwich estimator and Kauermann and Carroll's estimator with these structures in the scenarios where the variance increased across visits. The performance based on Mancl and DeRouen's estimator with these structures was nearly equivalent to that based on the Kenward-Roger method for adjusting the standard errors and degrees of freedom with the UN structure. The model-based covariance estimator with the UN structure under unadjustment of the degrees of freedom, which is frequently used in applications, resulted in substantial inflation of the type 1 error rate. We recommend the use of Mancl and DeRouen's estimator in MMRM analysis if the number of subjects completing is ( n + 5) or less, where n is the number of planned visits. Otherwise, the use of Kenward and Roger's method with UN structure should be the best way.

An Initial Examination for Verifying Separation Algorithms by Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Neogi, Natasha; Herencia-Zapana, Heber

2012-01-01

An open question in algorithms for aircraft is what can be validated by simulation where the simulation shows that the probability of undesirable events is below some given level at some confidence level. The problem is including enough realism to be convincing while retaining enough efficiency to run the large number of trials needed for high confidence. The paper first proposes a goal based on the number of flights per year in several regions. The paper examines the probabilistic interpretation of this goal and computes the number of trials needed to establish it at an equivalent confidence level. Since any simulation is likely to consider the algorithms for only one type of event and there are several types of events, the paper examines under what conditions this separate consideration is valid. This paper is an initial effort, and as such, it considers separation maneuvers, which are elementary but include numerous aspects of aircraft behavior. The scenario includes decisions under uncertainty since the position of each aircraft is only known to the other by broadcasting where GPS believes each aircraft to be (ADS-B). Each aircraft operates under feedback control with perturbations. It is shown that a scenario three or four orders of magnitude more complex is feasible. The question of what can be validated by simulation remains open, but there is reason to be optimistic.

SUPPORTING CHILDREN IN U.S. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS: Descriptive and Attitudinal Data From a National Survey of Victim/Witness Assistants.

PubMed

McAuliff, Bradley D; Nicholson, Elizabeth; Amarilio, Diana; Ravanshenas, Daniel

2013-01-01

We conducted a national survey of 786 victim/witness assistants (VWAs) to provide descriptive and attitudinal information about support person use in U.S. legal proceedings involving children. VWAs ( N = 414) from 46 states returned completed surveys (response rate = 53%). Prosecutor-based VWAs or parents/guardians most frequently served as support persons. One support person was almost always or often used with child victims and/or witnesses of all ages. Support persons were extremely common in cases involving child sexual abuse, physical abuse, neglect, and adult domestic violence. Overall, support persons provided more informational than emotional support. The most common informational support was to provide referrals to community resources, conduct courtroom visit/orientation, and disseminate relevant procedural information. The most common emotional support was to accompany the child to trial. Support persons rarely or never questioned children directly during investigative interviews or in court. Respondents believed support persons decrease children's stress and increase accuracy and credibility; however, this effect varied as a function of who provided support, child age, case type, and type of emotional or informational support. Respondents believed that support person presence at trial probably does not prejudice jurors against defendants. These survey data provide a benchmark for legal professionals and a foundation for future social scientific research examining the effects of support person use on children.

[Effectiveness of special stroke units in treatment of acute stroke].

PubMed

Nikolaus, T; Jamour, M

2000-04-01

In Germany the implementation of specialized wards for the care of stroke patients is proposed. However, which type of organized inpatient stroke unit care is most effective and which group of patients will benefit most remains unclear. Based on the analyses of the Stroke Unit Trialists' Collaboration this paper reports results of randomized and quasi-randomized trials that compared organized inpatient (stroke unit) care with contemporary conventional care. The primary analyses examined death, dependency and institutionalization. Secondary outcome measures included patient quality of life, patient and carer satisfaction and length of stay in hospital and/or institution. The analysis of twenty trails with 3864 patients showed a reduction in the rate of deaths in the stroke unit group as compared with the control group (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.71-0.97). The odds of death or institutionalized care were lower (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.65-0.90) as were death or dependency (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.65-0.87). The results were independent of patient age, sex, stroke severity, and type of stroke unit organization. Organized care in stroke units resulted in benefits for stroke patients with regard to survival, independence, and probability of living at home. However, these results refer exclusively to Anglo-American and Scandinavian trials. German stroke unit services are organized in a different way. No data about the effectiveness of the German model is yet available.

A new variable interval schedule with constant hazard rate and finite time range.

PubMed

Bugallo, Mehdi; Machado, Armando; Vasconcelos, Marco

2018-05-27

We propose a new variable interval (VI) schedule that achieves constant probability of reinforcement in time while using a bounded range of intervals. By sampling each trial duration from a uniform distribution ranging from 0 to 2 T seconds, and then applying a reinforcement rule that depends linearly on trial duration, the schedule alternates reinforced and unreinforced trials, each less than 2 T seconds, while preserving a constant hazard function. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

The EXCITE Trial: Predicting a Clinically Meaningful Motor Activity Log Outcome

PubMed Central

Park, Si-Woon; Wolf, Steven L.; Blanton, Sarah; Winstein, Carolee; Nichols-Larsen, Deborah S.

2013-01-01

Background and Objective This study determined which baseline clinical measurements best predicted a predefined clinically meaningful outcome on the Motor Activity Log (MAL) and developed a predictive multivariate model to determine outcome after 2 weeks of constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) and 12 months later using the database from participants in the Extremity Constraint Induced Therapy Evaluation (EXCITE) Trial. Methods A clinically meaningful CIMT outcome was defined as achieving higher than 3 on the MAL Quality of Movement (QOM) scale. Predictive variables included baseline MAL, Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT), the sensory and motor portion of the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA), spasticity, visual perception, age, gender, type of stroke, concordance, and time after stroke. Significant predictors identified by univariate analysis were used to develop the multivariate model. Predictive equations were generated and odds ratios for predictors were calculated from the multivariate model. Results Pretreatment motor function measured by MAL QOM, WMFT, and FMA were significantly associated with outcome immediately after CIMT. Pretreatment MAL QOM, WMFT, proprioception, and age were significantly associated with outcome after 12 months. Each unit of higher pretreatment MAL QOM score and each unit of faster pretreatment WMFT log mean time improved the probability of achieving a clinically meaningful outcome by 7 and 3 times at posttreatment, and 5 and 2 times after 12 months, respectively. Patients with impaired proprioception had a 20% probability of achieving a clinically meaningful outcome compared with those with intact proprioception. Conclusions Baseline clinical measures of motor and sensory function can be used to predict a clinically meaningful outcome after CIMT. PMID:18780883

The EXCITE Trial: Predicting a clinically meaningful motor activity log outcome.

PubMed

Park, Si-Woon; Wolf, Steven L; Blanton, Sarah; Winstein, Carolee; Nichols-Larsen, Deborah S

2008-01-01

This study determined which baseline clinical measurements best predicted a predefined clinically meaningful outcome on the Motor Activity Log (MAL) and developed a predictive multivariate model to determine outcome after 2 weeks of constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) and 12 months later using the database from participants in the Extremity Constraint Induced Therapy Evaluation (EXCITE) Trial. A clinically meaningful CIMT outcome was defined as achieving higher than 3 on the MAL Quality of Movement (QOM) scale. Predictive variables included baseline MAL, Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT), the sensory and motor portion of the Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA), spasticity, visual perception, age, gender, type of stroke, concordance, and time after stroke. Significant predictors identified by univariate analysis were used to develop the multivariate model. Predictive equations were generated and odds ratios for predictors were calculated from the multivariate model. Pretreatment motor function measured by MAL QOM, WMFT, and FMA were significantly associated with outcome immediately after CIMT. Pretreatment MAL QOM, WMFT, proprioception, and age were significantly associated with outcome after 12 months. Each unit of higher pretreatment MAL QOM score and each unit of faster pretreatment WMFT log mean time improved the probability of achieving a clinically meaningful outcome by 7 and 3 times at posttreatment, and 5 and 2 times after 12 months, respectively. Patients with impaired proprioception had a 20% probability of achieving a clinically meaningful outcome compared with those with intact proprioception. Baseline clinical measures of motor and sensory function can be used to predict a clinically meaningful outcome after CIMT.

Spaced Retrieval Enhances Memory for a Name-Face-Occupation Association in Older Adults with Probable Alzheimer's Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cherry, Katie E.; Walvoord, Ashley A. G.; Hawley, Karri S.

2010-01-01

The authors trained 4 older adults with probable Alzheimer's disease to recall a name-face-occupation association using the spaced retrieval technique. Six training sessions were administered over a 2-week period. On each trial, participants selected a target photograph and stated the target name and occupation at increasingly longer retention…

Effect of Reinforcement Probability and Prize Size on Cocaine and Heroin Abstinence in Prize-Based Contingency Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ghitza, Udi E.; Epstein, David H.; Schmittner, John; Vahabzadeh, Massoud; Lin, Jia-Ling; Preston, Kenzie L.

2008-01-01

Although treatment outcome in prize-based contingency management has been shown to depend on reinforcement schedule, the optimal schedule is still unknown. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective analysis of data from a randomized clinical trial (Ghitza et al., 2007) to determine the effects of the probability of winning a prize (low vs. high) and…

Robust EM Continual Reassessment Method in Oncology Dose Finding

PubMed Central

Yuan, Ying; Yin, Guosheng

2012-01-01

The continual reassessment method (CRM) is a commonly used dose-finding design for phase I clinical trials. Practical applications of this method have been restricted by two limitations: (1) the requirement that the toxicity outcome needs to be observed shortly after the initiation of the treatment; and (2) the potential sensitivity to the prespecified toxicity probability at each dose. To overcome these limitations, we naturally treat the unobserved toxicity outcomes as missing data, and use the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the dose toxicity probabilities based on the incomplete data to direct dose assignment. To enhance the robustness of the design, we propose prespecifying multiple sets of toxicity probabilities, each set corresponding to an individual CRM model. We carry out these multiple CRMs in parallel, across which model selection and model averaging procedures are used to make more robust inference. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed robust EM-CRM designs through simulation studies and show that the proposed methods satisfactorily resolve both limitations of the CRM. Besides improving the MTD selection percentage, the new designs dramatically shorten the duration of the trial, and are robust to the prespecification of the toxicity probabilities. PMID:22375092

Investigating the relationship between predictability and imbalance in minimisation: a simulation study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The use of restricted randomisation methods such as minimisation is increasing. This paper investigates under what conditions it is preferable to use restricted randomisation in order to achieve balance between treatment groups at baseline with regard to important prognostic factors and whether trialists should be concerned that minimisation may be considered deterministic. Methods Using minimisation as the randomisation algorithm, treatment allocation was simulated for hypothetical patients entering a theoretical study having values for prognostic factors randomly assigned with a stipulated probability. The number of times the allocation could have been determined with certainty and the imbalances which might occur following randomisation using minimisation were examined. Results Overall treatment balance is relatively unaffected by reducing the probability of allocation to optimal treatment group (P) but within-variable balance can be affected by any P <1. This effect is magnified by increased numbers of prognostic variables, the number of categories within them and the prevalence of these categories within the study population. Conclusions In general, for smaller trials, probability of treatment allocation to the treatment group with fewer numbers requires a larger value P to keep treatment and variable groups balanced. For larger trials probability of allocation values from P = 0.5 to P = 0.8 can be used while still maintaining balance. For one prognostic variable there is no significant benefit in terms of predictability in reducing the value of P. However, for more than one prognostic variable, significant reduction in levels of predictability can be achieved with the appropriate choice of P for the given trial design. PMID:23537389

Investigating the relationship between predictability and imbalance in minimisation: a simulation study.

PubMed

McPherson, Gladys C; Campbell, Marion K; Elbourne, Diana R

2013-03-27

The use of restricted randomisation methods such as minimisation is increasing. This paper investigates under what conditions it is preferable to use restricted randomisation in order to achieve balance between treatment groups at baseline with regard to important prognostic factors and whether trialists should be concerned that minimisation may be considered deterministic. Using minimisation as the randomisation algorithm, treatment allocation was simulated for hypothetical patients entering a theoretical study having values for prognostic factors randomly assigned with a stipulated probability. The number of times the allocation could have been determined with certainty and the imbalances which might occur following randomisation using minimisation were examined. Overall treatment balance is relatively unaffected by reducing the probability of allocation to optimal treatment group (P) but within-variable balance can be affected by any P <1. This effect is magnified by increased numbers of prognostic variables, the number of categories within them and the prevalence of these categories within the study population. In general, for smaller trials, probability of treatment allocation to the treatment group with fewer numbers requires a larger value P to keep treatment and variable groups balanced. For larger trials probability of allocation values from P = 0.5 to P = 0.8 can be used while still maintaining balance. For one prognostic variable there is no significant benefit in terms of predictability in reducing the value of P. However, for more than one prognostic variable, significant reduction in levels of predictability can be achieved with the appropriate choice of P for the given trial design.

Interpretation of health news items reported with or without spin: protocol for a prospective meta-analysis of 16 randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Haneef, Romana; Yavchitz, Amélie; Ravaud, Philippe; Baron, Gabriel; Oranksy, Ivan; Schwitzer, Gary; Boutron, Isabelle

2017-01-01

Introduction We aim to compare the interpretation of health news items reported with or without spin. ‘Spin’ is defined as a misrepresentation of study results, regardless of motive (intentionally or unintentionally) that overemphasises the beneficial effects of the intervention and overstates safety compared with that shown by the results. Methods and analysis We have planned a series of 16 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to perform a prospective meta-analysis. We will select a sample of health news items reporting the results of four types of study designs, evaluating the effect of pharmacological treatment and containing the highest amount of spin in the headline and text. News items reporting four types of studies will be included: (1) preclinical studies; (2) phase I/II (non-randomised) trials; (3) RCTs and (4) observational studies. We will rewrite the selected news items and remove the spin. The original news and rewritten news will be appraised by four types of populations: (1) French-speaking patients; (2) French-speaking general public; (3) English-speaking patients and (4) English-speaking general public. Each RCT will explore the interpretation of news items reporting one of the four study designs by each type of population and will include a sample size of 300 participants. The primary outcome will be participants’ interpretation of the benefit of treatment after reading the news items: (What do you think is the probability that treatment X would be beneficial to patients? (scale, 0 (very unlikely) to 10 (very likely)). This study will evaluate the impact of spin on the interpretation of health news reporting results of studies by patients and the general public. Ethics and dissemination This study has obtained ethics approval from the Institutional Review Board of the Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (INSERM) (registration no: IRB00003888). The description of all the steps and the results of this prospective meta-analysis will be available online and will be disseminated as a published article. On the completion of this study, the results will be sent to all participants. PROSPERO registration number CRD42017058941. PMID:29151047

Is it possible to minimize overdrainage complications with gravitational units in patients with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus? Protocol of the randomized controlled SVASONA Trial (ISRCTN51046698).

PubMed

Lemcke, J; Meier, U; Müller, C; Fritsch, M; Eymann, R; Kiefer, M; Kehler, U; Langer, N; Rohde, V; Ludwig, H-Ch; Weber, F; Remenez, V; Schuhmann, M; Stengel, D

2010-01-01

Overdrainage is a common complication observed after shunting patients with idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH), with an estimated incidence up to 25%. Gravitational units that counterbalance intracranial pressure changes were developed to overcome this problem. We will set out to investigate whether the combination of a programmable valve and a gravitational unit (proGAV, Aesculap/Miethke, Germany) is capable of reducing the incidence of overdrainage and improving patient-centered outcomes compared to a conventional programmable valve (Medos-Codman, Johnson & Johnson, Germany). SVASONA is a pragmatic randomized controlled trial conducted at seven centers in Germany. Patients with a high probability of iNPH (based on clinical signs and symptoms, lumbar infusion and/or tap test, cranial computed tomography [CCT]) and no contraindications for surgical drainage will randomly be assigned to receive (1) a shunt assistant valve (proGAV) or (2) a conventional, programmable shunt valve (programmable Medos-Codman).We will test the primary hypothesis that the experimental device reduces the rate of overdrainage from 25% to 10%. As secondary analyses, we will measure iNPH-specific outcomes (i.e., the Black grading scale and the NPH Recovery Rate), generic quality of life (Short Form 36), and complications and serious adverse events (SAE). One planned interim analysis for safety and efficacy will be performed halfway through the study. To detect the hypothesized difference in the incidence of overdrainage with a type I error of 5% and a type II error of 20%, correcting for multiple testing and an anticipated dropout rate of 10%, 200 patients will be enrolled.The presented trial is currently recruiting patients, with the first results predicted to be available in late 2008.

Updating of Attentional and Premotor Allocation Resources as function of previous trial outcome

PubMed Central

Arjona, Antonio; Escudero, Miguel; Gómez, Carlos M.

2014-01-01

The neural bases of the inter-trial validity/invalidity sequential effects in a visuo-auditory modified version of the Central Cue Posner's Paradigm (CCPP) are analyzed by means of Early Directing Attention Negativity (EDAN), Contingent Negative Variation (CNV) and Lateralized Readiness Potential (LRP). ERPs results indicated an increase in CNV and LRP in trials preceded by valid trials compared to trials preceded by invalid trials. The CNV and LRP pattern would be highly related to the behavioral pattern of lower RTs and higher number of anticipations in trials preceded by valid with respect to trials preceded by invalid trials. This effect was not preceded by a modulation of the EDAN as a result of the previous trial condition. The results suggest that there is a trial-by-trial dynamic modulation of the attentional system as a function of the validity assigned to the cue, in which conditional probabilities between cue and target are continuously updated. PMID:24681570

Fruit and vegetable intake, as reflected by serum carotenoid concentrations, predicts reduced probability of PCB-associated risk for type 2 diabetes: NHANES 2003–2004

PubMed Central

Hofe, Carolyn R.; Feng, Limin; Zephyr, Dominique; Stromberg, Arnold J.; Hennig, Bernhard; Gaetke, Lisa M.

2014-01-01

Type 2 diabetes has been shown to occur in response to environmental and genetic influences, among them nutrition, food intake patterns, sedentary lifestyle, body mass index (BMI), and exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Nutrition is essential in the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes and has been shown to modulate the toxicity of PCBs. Serum carotenoid concentrations, considered a reliable biomarker of fruit and vegetable intake, are associated with the reduced probability of chronic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Our hypothesis is that fruit and vegetable intake, reflected by serum carotenoid concentrations, is associated with the reduced probability of developing type 2 diabetes in US adults with elevated serum concentrations of PCBs 118, 126, and 153. This cross-sectional study utilized the CDC database, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 in logistic regression analyses. Overall prevalence of type 2 diabetes was approximately 11.6% depending on the specific PCB. All three PCBs were positively associated with the probability of type 2 diabetes. For participants at higher PCB percentiles (e.g., 75th and 90th) for PCB 118 and 126, increasing serum carotenoid concentrations were associated with a smaller probability of type 2 diabetes. Fruit and vegetable intake, as reflected by serum carotenoid concentrations, predicted notably reduced probability of dioxin-like PCB-associated risk for type 2 diabetes. PMID:24774064

Multi-state models for colon cancer recurrence and death with a cured fraction.

PubMed

Conlon, A S C; Taylor, J M G; Sargent, D J

2014-05-10

In cancer clinical trials, patients often experience a recurrence of disease prior to the outcome of interest, overall survival. Additionally, for many cancers, there is a cured fraction of the population who will never experience a recurrence. There is often interest in how different covariates affect the probability of being cured of disease and the time to recurrence, time to death, and time to death after recurrence. We propose a multi-state Markov model with an incorporated cured fraction to jointly model recurrence and death in colon cancer. A Bayesian estimation strategy is used to obtain parameter estimates. The model can be used to assess how individual covariates affect the probability of being cured and each of the transition rates. Checks for the adequacy of the model fit and for the functional forms of covariates are explored. The methods are applied to data from 12 randomized trials in colon cancer, where we show common effects of specific covariates across the trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decoupled choice-driven and stimulus-related activity in parietal neurons may be misrepresented by choice probabilities.

PubMed

Zaidel, Adam; DeAngelis, Gregory C; Angelaki, Dora E

2017-09-28

Trial-by-trial correlations between neural responses and choices (choice probabilities) are often interpreted to reflect a causal contribution of neurons to task performance. However, choice probabilities may arise from top-down, rather than bottom-up, signals. We isolated distinct sensory and decision contributions to single-unit activity recorded from the dorsal medial superior temporal (MSTd) and ventral intraparietal (VIP) areas of monkeys during perception of self-motion. Superficially, neurons in both areas show similar tuning curves during task performance. However, tuning in MSTd neurons primarily reflects sensory inputs, whereas choice-related signals dominate tuning in VIP neurons. Importantly, the choice-related activity of VIP neurons is not predictable from their stimulus tuning, and these factors are often confounded in choice probability measurements. This finding was confirmed in a subset of neurons for which stimulus tuning was measured during passive fixation. Our findings reveal decoupled stimulus and choice signals in the VIP area, and challenge our understanding of choice signals in the brain.Choice-related signals in neuronal activity may reflect bottom-up sensory processes, top-down decision-related influences, or a combination of the two. Here the authors report that choice-related activity in VIP neurons is not predictable from their stimulus tuning, and that dominant choice signals can bias the standard metric of choice preference (choice probability).

Vitamin A supplements for reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission

PubMed Central

Wiysonge, Charles S; Ndze, Valantine N; Kongnyuy, Eugene J; Shey, Muki S

2017-01-01

Background Strategies to reduce the risk of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) include lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-positive women, exclusive breastfeeding from birth for six weeks plus nevirapine or replacement feeding plus nevirapine from birth for four to six weeks, elective Caesarean section delivery, and avoiding giving children chewed food. In some settings, these interventions may not be practical, feasible, or affordable. Simple, inexpensive, and effective interventions (that could potentially be implemented even in the absence of prenatal HIV testing programmes) would be valuable. Vitamin A, which plays a role in immune function, is one low-cost intervention that has been suggested in such settings. Objectives To summarize the effects of giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women during pregnancy and after delivery. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PubMed, Embase, and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) up to 25 August 2017, and checked the reference lists of relevant articles for eligible studies. Selection criteria We included randomized controlled trials conducted in any setting that compared vitamin A supplements to placebo or no intervention among HIV-positive women during pregnancy or after delivery, or both. Data collection and analysis At least two review authors independently assessed study eligibility and extracted data. We expressed study results as risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD) as appropriate, with their 95% confidence intervals (CI), and conducted random-effects meta-analyses. This is an update of a review last published in 2011. Main results Five trials met the inclusion criteria. These were conducted in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe between 1995 and 2005 and none of the participants received ART. Women allocated to intervention arms received vitamin A supplements at a variety of doses (daily during pregnancy; a single dose immediately after delivery, or daily doses during pregnancy plus a single dose after delivery). Women allocated to comparison arms received identical placebo (6601 women, 4 trials) or no intervention (697 women, 1 trial). Four trials (with 6995 women) had low risk of bias and one trial (with 303 women) had high risk of attrition bias. The trials show that giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women during pregnancy, the immediate postpartum period, or both, probably has little or no effect on mother-to-child transmission of HIV (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.26; 4428 women, 5 trials, moderate certainty evidence) and may have little or no effect on child death by two years of age (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.22; 3883 women, 3 trials, low certainty evidence). However, giving vitamin A supplements during pregnancy may increase the mean birthweight (MD 34.12 g, 95% CI −12.79 to 81.02; 2181 women, 3 trials, low certainty evidence) and probably reduces the incidence of low birthweight (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.97; 1819 women, 3 trials, moderate certainty evidence); but we do not know whether vitamin A supplements affect the risk of preterm delivery (1577 women, 2 trials), stillbirth (2335 women, 3 trials), or maternal death (1267 women, 2 trials). Authors' conclusions Antepartum or postpartum vitamin A supplementation, or both, probably has little or no effect on mother-to-child transmission of HIV in women living with HIV infection and not on antiretroviral drugs. The intervention has largely been superseded by ART which is widely available and effective in preventing vertical transmission. Vitamin A supplements for reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection What is the aim of this review? The main aim of this Cochrane Review was to assess the effects of giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women, during pregnancy or after delivery, or both, on the risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection. Cochrane researchers collected and examined all relevant studies to answer this question and included five trials. This is an update of a review last published in 2011. What is the key message of this review? Giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women, during pregnancy or after delivery, or both, probably makes little or no difference to the risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (moderate certainty evidence). What are the main results of the review? Five trials met the inclusion criteria of the review. Two trials were from South Africa and one trial each from Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. The trials compared women receiving vitamin A supplements to women not receiving such supplements. None of the participants received antiretroviral therapy (ART). The review shows that in women living with HIV infection and not on ART: - giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women during pregnancy, immediately after delivery, or both, probably has little or no effect on the risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (moderate certainty evidence) and may have little or no effect on child death by two years of age (low certainty evidence); - giving vitamin A supplements to HIV-positive women during pregnancy may increase the mean birthweight (low certainty evidence) and probably reduces the number of low birthweight babies (moderate certainty evidence), but it is uncertain whether the intervention has an effect on the number of preterm births, stillbirths, or deaths among the women (very low certainty evidence). The intervention has largely been superseded by ART, which is widely available and effective in preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. How up-to-date is this review? The review authors searched for studies up to 25 August 2017. PMID:28880995

Breakfast choice: An experiment combining a nutritional training workshop targeting adolescents and the promotion of unhealthy products

PubMed Central

Lopez‐Valcarcel, Beatriz G.

2017-01-01

Abstract A randomised control trial was conducted to determine changes in the food and drink choices of adolescents following their participation in a 50‐min nutrition workshop. The experiment was conducted at 104 schools in Barcelona (126 classes, 3,291 adolescents). Schools were randomly selected and stratified by district and by public or private status. The students were given three types of vouchers with different options regarding the type of food for which the vouchers could be exchanged (standard for healthy food and drink, two for one for unhealthy food, and two for one for unhealthy drink). Difference‐in‐differences linear models that control for individual, family, school or neighbourhood characteristics, and the influence of peers were applied. The probability of students' choosing unhealthy food and drink fell by 7.1% and 4.4%, respectively, following participation in the nutrition workshop. The promotion of unhealthy beverages counteracted the positive impact of the workshop on beverage choice. PMID:28744931

Estimating individual benefits of medical or behavioral treatments in severely ill patients.

PubMed

Diaz, Francisco J

2017-01-01

There is a need for statistical methods appropriate for the analysis of clinical trials from a personalized-medicine viewpoint as opposed to the common statistical practice that simply examines average treatment effects. This article proposes an approach to quantifying, reporting and analyzing individual benefits of medical or behavioral treatments to severely ill patients with chronic conditions, using data from clinical trials. The approach is a new development of a published framework for measuring the severity of a chronic disease and the benefits treatments provide to individuals, which utilizes regression models with random coefficients. Here, a patient is considered to be severely ill if the patient's basal severity is close to one. This allows the derivation of a very flexible family of probability distributions of individual benefits that depend on treatment duration and the covariates included in the regression model. Our approach may enrich the statistical analysis of clinical trials of severely ill patients because it allows investigating the probability distribution of individual benefits in the patient population and the variables that influence it, and we can also measure the benefits achieved in specific patients including new patients. We illustrate our approach using data from a clinical trial of the anti-depressant imipramine.

Do public access defibrillation (PAD) programmes lead to an increase of patients surviving to discharge from hospital following out of hospital cardiac arrest?--a literature review.

PubMed

Clare, Carl

2006-11-01

To ascertain the evidence for effectiveness of Public Access Defibrillation Programmes using any level of first responder. Structured searches were made of Medline, Cinahl, Embase, and 'All EBM reviews' (CDSR, ACP Journal Club, DARE, CCTR). No limits were set on the searches in terms of date, publication type or language. Limited hand searches were carried out and colleagues approached for potential papers. All 491 results were 'hand searched' for suitability. Potential papers for inclusion were further reviewed by access to abstracts or full text if necessary. The final papers for review were assessed using a recognised checklist. Of a total of 491 results from all databases removal of repeats and papers that did not answer the question led to 22 papers being further reviewed. Of these 19 were excluded and a final three were assessed and reviewed. Of the three papers two were randomised controlled trials (one with cross over design) and one was a non-randomised controlled cross over trial. Two of the papers assessed the use of level one responders and one level two responders. Odds ratios for the trials using level one responders were 1.3 and 1.6. The relative risk (of survival) for the trial using level two responders was 2.0. However all three trials had wide confidence intervals. The use of level one responders probably carries a slight benefit for patients in OOHCA. The use of level two responders may lead to a greater benefit but only for a small section of the population suffering OOHCA. Emphasis must also be placed on the improvement of ambulance response times and bystander CPR rates.

Peanut variety tests

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managed peanut variety trials located in various state-wide regions are an essential part of peanut variety development and release. In this study, trials were conducted in Caddo, Custer, and Tillman counties of Oklahoma. Trial entries included 12 runner types, 4 Spanish types and 8 Virginia types...

Peanut Variety Tests

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managed peanut variety trials located in various state-wide regions are an essential part of peanut variety development and release. In this study, trials were conducted in Caddo, Custer, and Tillman counties of Oklahoma. Trial entries included 8 runner types, 4 Spanish types, and 4 Virginia types...

Peanut variety tests

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managed peanut variety trials located in various state-wide regions are an essential part of peanut variety development and release. In this study, trials were conducted in Caddo, Beckham, and Custer counties of Oklahoma. Trial entries included 9 runner types, 4 Spanish types, and 7 Virginia types...

Peanut variety tests

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managed peanut variety trials located in various state-wide regions are an essential part of peanut variety development and release. In this study, trials were conducted in Caddo, Beckham, and Custer counties of Oklahoma. Trial entries included 10 runner types, 4 Spanish types, and 6 Virginia type...

Consistency assessment with global and bridging development strategies in emerging markets.

PubMed

Li, Gang; Chen, Josh; Quan, Hui; Shentu, Yue

2013-11-01

Global trial strategy with the participation of all major regions including countries from emerging markets surely increases new drug development efficiency. Nevertheless, there are circumstances in which some countries in emerging markets cannot join the original global trial. To evaluate the extrapolability of the original trial results to a new country, a bridging trial in the country has to be conducted. In this paper, we first evaluate the efficiency loss of the bridging trial strategy compared to that of the global trial strategy as a function of between-study variability from consistency assessment perspective. The provided evidence should encourage countries in emerging markets to make a greater effort to participate in the original global trial. We then discuss sample size requirement for desired assurance probability for consistency assessment based on various approaches for both global and bridging trial strategies. Examples are presented for numerical demonstration and comparisons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The National Clinical Trials Network: Conducting Successful Clinical Trials of New Therapies for Rare Cancers

PubMed Central

Schott, Anne F.; Welch, John J.; Verschraegen, Claire F.; Kurzrock, Razelle

2015-01-01

Rare cancers account for 27% of neoplasms diagnosed each year, and 25% of cancer-related deaths in the United States. However, rare cancers show some of the highest response rates to targeted therapies, probably due to identification of oncogenic drivers with little inter-patient variability. Although the low incidence of rare cancers make large scale randomized trials involving single histologies difficult to perform, drugs have been successfully developed in rare cancers utilizing clinical trial designs that combine microscopic anatomies. Such trials are being pursued within the National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN), which possesses unique qualifications to perform widespread molecular screening of tumors for patient enrollment onto therapeutic clinical trials. When larger clinical trials are needed to determine optimum treatment strategies in rare cancers, the NCTN's broad reach in North America and internationally, and ability to partner with both US-based and international research organizations, can make these challenging studies feasible. PMID:26433554

Variables associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldinger, Kyle R.; Wood, Petra B.

2015-01-01

Detection probability during point counts and its associated variables are important considerations for bird population monitoring and have implications for conservation planning by influencing population estimates. During 2008–2009, we evaluated variables hypothesized to be associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of male Golden-winged Warblers in pastures in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, USA. This is the first study of male Golden-winged Warbler detection probability, detection latency, or behavioral response based on point-count sampling with known territory locations and identities for all males. During 3-min passive point counts, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory and time since sunrise increased. During 3-min point counts with playback, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory increased, but remained constant as time since sunrise increased. Detection probability was greater when point counts included type 2 compared with type 1 song playback, particularly during the first 2 min of type 2 song playback. Golden-winged Warblers primarily use type 1 songs (often zee bee bee bee with a higher-pitched first note) in intersexual contexts and type 2 songs (strident, rapid stutter ending with a lower-pitched buzzy note) in intrasexual contexts. Distance to a male's territory, ordinal date, and song playback type were associated with the type of behavioral response to song playback. Overall, ~2 min of type 2 song playback may increase the efficacy of point counts for monitoring populations of Golden-winged Warblers by increasing the conspicuousness of males for visual identification and offsetting the consequences of surveying later in the morning. Because playback may interfere with the ability to detect distant males, it is important to follow playback with a period of passive listening. Our results indicate that even in relatively open pasture vegetation, detection probability of male Golden-winged Warblers is imperfect and highly variable.

Comparison of the efficacy and safety of thrombectomy devices in acute stroke : a network meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Saber, Hamidreza; Rajah, Gary B; Kherallah, Riyad Y; Jadhav, Ashutosh P; Narayanan, Sandra

2017-12-15

Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is increasingly used for large-vessel occlusions (LVO), but randomized clinical trial (RCT) level data with regard to differences in clinical outcomes of MT devices are limited. We conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA) that enables comparison of modern MT devices (Trevo, Solitaire, Aspiration) and strategies (stent retriever vs aspiration) across trials. Relevant RCTs were identified by a systematic review. The efficacy outcome was 90-day functional independence (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 0-2). Safety outcomes were 90-day catastrophic outcome (mRS 5-6) and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH). Fixed-effect Bayesian NMA was performed to calculate risk estimates and the rank probabilities. In a NMA of six relevant RCTs (SWIFT, TREVO2, EXTEND-IA, SWIFT-PRIME, REVASCAT, THERAPY; total of 871 patients, 472 Solitaire vs medical-only, 108 Aspiration vs medical-only, 178 Trevo vs Merci, and 113 Solitaire vs Merci) with medical-only arm as the reference, Trevo had the greatest functional independence (OR 4.14, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.41-11.80; top rank probability 92%) followed by Solitaire (OR 2.55, 95% CrI 1.75-3.74; top rank probability 72%). Solitaire and Aspiration devices had the greatest top rank probability with respect to low sICH and catastrophic outcomes (76% and 91%, respectively), but without significant differences between each other. In a separate network of seven RCTs (MR-CLEAN, ESCAPE, EXTEND-IA, SWIFT-PRIME, REVASCAT, THERAPY, ASTER; 1737 patients), first-line stent retriever was associated with a higher top rank probability of functional independence than aspiration (95% vs 54%), with comparable safety outcomes. These findings suggest that Trevo and Solitaire devices are associated with a greater likelihood of functional independence whereas Solitaire and Aspiration devices appear to be safer. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A journey into a Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Esposito, Katherine; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Chiodini, Paolo; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Giugliano, Dario

2015-01-01

Objectives To summarise the evidence about the efficacy of a Mediterranean diet on the management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states. Design A systematic review of all meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the Mediterranean diet with a control diet on the treatment of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states was conducted. Electronic searches were carried out up to January 2015. Trials were included for meta-analyses if they had a control group treated with another diet, if they were of sufficient duration (at least 6 months), and if they had at least 30 participants in each arm. A random-effect model was used to pool data. Participants Adults with or at risk for type 2 diabetes. Interventions Dietary patterns that described themselves as using a ‘Mediterranean’ dietary pattern. Outcome measures The outcomes were glycaemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and remission from the metabolic syndrome. Results From 2824 studies, 8 meta-analyses and 5 RCTs were eligible. A ‘de novo’ meta-analysis of 3 long-term (>6 months) RCTs of the Mediterranean diet and glycaemic control of diabetes favoured the Mediterranean diet as compared with lower fat diets. Another ‘de novo’ meta-analysis of two long-term RCTs showed a 49% increased probability of remission from the metabolic syndrome. 5 meta-analyses showed a favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet, as compared with other diets, on body weight, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. 2 meta-analyses demonstrated that higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduced the risk of future diabetes by 19–23%. Conclusions The Mediterranean diet was associated with better glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk factors than control diets, including a lower fat diet, suggesting that it is suitable for the overall management of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26260349

A journey into a Mediterranean diet and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analyses.

PubMed

Esposito, Katherine; Maiorino, Maria Ida; Bellastella, Giuseppe; Chiodini, Paolo; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Giugliano, Dario

2015-08-10

To summarise the evidence about the efficacy of a Mediterranean diet on the management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states. A systematic review of all meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the Mediterranean diet with a control diet on the treatment of type 2 diabetes and prediabetic states was conducted. Electronic searches were carried out up to January 2015. Trials were included for meta-analyses if they had a control group treated with another diet, if they were of sufficient duration (at least 6 months), and if they had at least 30 participants in each arm. A random-effect model was used to pool data. Adults with or at risk for type 2 diabetes. Dietary patterns that described themselves as using a 'Mediterranean' dietary pattern. The outcomes were glycaemic control, cardiovascular risk factors and remission from the metabolic syndrome. From 2824 studies, 8 meta-analyses and 5 RCTs were eligible. A 'de novo' meta-analysis of 3 long-term (>6 months) RCTs of the Mediterranean diet and glycaemic control of diabetes favoured the Mediterranean diet as compared with lower fat diets. Another 'de novo' meta-analysis of two long-term RCTs showed a 49% increased probability of remission from the metabolic syndrome. 5 meta-analyses showed a favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet, as compared with other diets, on body weight, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. 2 meta-analyses demonstrated that higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduced the risk of future diabetes by 19-23%. The Mediterranean diet was associated with better glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk factors than control diets, including a lower fat diet, suggesting that it is suitable for the overall management of type 2 diabetes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Impact of Cocoa Consumption on Inflammation Processes—A Critical Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

PubMed Central

Ellinger, Sabine; Stehle, Peter

2016-01-01

Background: Cocoa flavanols have strong anti-inflammatory properties in vitro. If these also occur in vivo, cocoa consumption may contribute to the prevention or treatment of diseases mediated by chronic inflammation. This critical review judged the evidence for such effects occurring after cocoa consumption. Methods: A literature search in Medline was performed for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that investigated the effects of cocoa consumption on inflammatory biomarkers. Results: Thirty-three RCTs were included, along with 9 bolus and 24 regular consumption studies. Acute cocoa consumption decreased adhesion molecules and 4-series leukotrienes in serum, nuclear factor κB activation in leukocytes, and the expression of CD62P and CD11b on monocytes and neutrophils. In healthy subjects and in patients with cardiovascular diseases, most regular consumption trials did not find any changes except for a decreased number of endothelial microparticles, but several cellular and humoral inflammation markers decreased in patients suffering from type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose. Conclusions: Little evidence exists that consumption of cocoa-rich food may reduce inflammation, probably by lowering the activation of monocytes and neutrophils. The efficacy seems to depend on the extent of the basal inflammatory burden. Further well-designed RCTs with inflammation as the primary outcome are needed, focusing on specific markers of leukocyte activation and considering endothelial microparticles as marker of vascular inflammation. PMID:27240397

Aspirin and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for cancer prevention: an international consensus statement.

PubMed

Cuzick, Jack; Otto, Florian; Baron, John A; Brown, Powel H; Burn, John; Greenwald, Peter; Jankowski, Janusz; La Vecchia, Carlo; Meyskens, Frank; Senn, Hans Jörg; Thun, Michael

2009-05-01

Evidence clearly shows a chemopreventive effect for aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on colorectal cancer and probably other cancer types; however, data on the risk-benefit profile for cancer prevention are insufficient and no definitive recommendations can be made. Aspirin has emerged as the most likely NSAID for use in chemoprevention because of its known cardiovascular benefit and available safety and efficacy data. Other traditional NSAIDs, particularly sulindac, and selective COX-2 inhibitors are now given to patients at high risk of colorectal cancer, although these drugs do not provide cardioprotection. More studies of aspirin and cancer prevention are needed to define the lowest effective dose, the age at which to initiate therapy, the optimum treatment duration, and the subpopulations for which the benefits of chemoprevention outweigh the risks of adverse side-effects. Although it might be possible to answer some of these questions with longer follow-up of existing clinical trials, randomised controlled trials with new study designs will be needed. Future projects should investigate the effects of aspirin treatment on multiple organ systems. Cancers of interest are colorectal, breast, prostate, lung, stomach, and oesophageal. The main side-effect of aspirin is peptic ulcers; therefore coadministration of aspirin with a proton-pump inhibitor is an attractive option and is under investigation in the AspECT trial.

Impact of Cocoa Consumption on Inflammation Processes-A Critical Review of Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Ellinger, Sabine; Stehle, Peter

2016-05-26

Cocoa flavanols have strong anti-inflammatory properties in vitro. If these also occur in vivo, cocoa consumption may contribute to the prevention or treatment of diseases mediated by chronic inflammation. This critical review judged the evidence for such effects occurring after cocoa consumption. A literature search in Medline was performed for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that investigated the effects of cocoa consumption on inflammatory biomarkers. Thirty-three RCTs were included, along with 9 bolus and 24 regular consumption studies. Acute cocoa consumption decreased adhesion molecules and 4-series leukotrienes in serum, nuclear factor κB activation in leukocytes, and the expression of CD62P and CD11b on monocytes and neutrophils. In healthy subjects and in patients with cardiovascular diseases, most regular consumption trials did not find any changes except for a decreased number of endothelial microparticles, but several cellular and humoral inflammation markers decreased in patients suffering from type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose. Little evidence exists that consumption of cocoa-rich food may reduce inflammation, probably by lowering the activation of monocytes and neutrophils. The efficacy seems to depend on the extent of the basal inflammatory burden. Further well-designed RCTs with inflammation as the primary outcome are needed, focusing on specific markers of leukocyte activation and considering endothelial microparticles as marker of vascular inflammation.

Circular stapled anopexy for haemorrhoidal disease: results.

PubMed

Lehur, P A; Gravié, J F; Meurette, G

2001-11-01

Stapled anopexy is a new approach for haemorrhoids requiring surgical treatment. This study reviews the available information concerning the present results of this procedure. Medline and hand search of the literature was conducted to identify available information on the procedure, with a special interest for the on-going or published randomized clinical trials. The advantages of the stapled approach of haemorrhoids were analyzed in the different areas of concern, including postoperative pain reduction, length of hospital stay and sick-leave, postoperative wound care and type and rate of complications. Continence status, symptom cure and patient satisfaction following stapled anopexy are also reported. Stapled anopexy is probably less painful than conventional haemorrhoidectomy. Other advantages in the short term result from this new approach. Long term efficacy of the procedure is still unknown.

TECNOB Study: Ad Interim Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial of a Multidisciplinary Telecare Intervention for Obese Patients with Type-2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Castelnuovo, Gianluca; Manzoni, Gian Mauro; Cuzziol, Paola; Cesa, Gian Luca; Corti, Stefania; Tuzzi, Cristina; Villa, Valentina; Liuzzi, Antonio; Petroni, Maria Letizia; Molinari, Enrico

2011-03-04

Obesity increases the risk of many health complications such as hypertension, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, needs long-lasting treatment for effective results and involves high public and private care-costs. Therefore, it is imperative that enduring and low-cost clinical programs for obesity and related co-morbidities are developed and evaluated. Information and communication technologies (ICT) can help clinicians to deliver treatment in a cost-effective and time-saving manner to a large number of obese individuals with co-morbidities. To examine ad interim effectiveness of a 12-month multidisciplinary telecare intervention for weight loss provided to obese patients with type 2 diabetes. A single-center randomized controlled trial (TECNOB study) started in December 2008. At present, 72 obese patients with type 2 diabetes have been recruited and randomly allocated to the TECNOB program (n=37) or to a control condition (n=39). However, only 34 participants have completed at least the 3-month follow-up and have been included in this ad interim analysis. 21 out of them have reached also the 6-month follow-up and 13 have achieved the end of the program. Study is still on-going. All participants attended 1-month inpatient intensive program that involved individualized medical care, diet therapy, physical training and brief psychological counseling. At discharge, participants allocated to the TECNOB program were instructed to use a weight-loss web-site, a web-based videoconference tool, a dietary software installed into their cellular phones and an electronic armband measuring daily steps and energy expenditure. Weight and disordered eating-related behaviors and cognitions (EDI-2) at entry to hospital, at discharge from hospital, at 3,6 and 12 months. Ad interim analysis of data from 34 participants showed no statistically significant difference between groups in weight change at any time-point. However, within-group analysis revealed significant reductions of initial weight at discharge from hospital, at 3 months, at 6 months but not at 12 months. Control group had higher scores in Interpersonal distrust at 12 months. This ad interim findings revealed that the effect of the inpatient treatment was high and probably overwhelmed the effect of the TECNOB intervention. Much statistical power and long-term follow-up may enhance the probability to detect the TECNOB effect over and above the great one exerted by the inpatient program.

Assessment and Implication of Prognostic Imbalance in Randomized Controlled Trials with a Binary Outcome – A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Chu, Rong; Walter, Stephen D.; Guyatt, Gordon; Devereaux, P. J.; Walsh, Michael; Thorlund, Kristian; Thabane, Lehana

2012-01-01

Background Chance imbalance in baseline prognosis of a randomized controlled trial can lead to over or underestimation of treatment effects, particularly in trials with small sample sizes. Our study aimed to (1) evaluate the probability of imbalance in a binary prognostic factor (PF) between two treatment arms, (2) investigate the impact of prognostic imbalance on the estimation of a treatment effect, and (3) examine the effect of sample size (n) in relation to the first two objectives. Methods We simulated data from parallel-group trials evaluating a binary outcome by varying the risk of the outcome, effect of the treatment, power and prevalence of the PF, and n. Logistic regression models with and without adjustment for the PF were compared in terms of bias, standard error, coverage of confidence interval and statistical power. Results For a PF with a prevalence of 0.5, the probability of a difference in the frequency of the PF≥5% reaches 0.42 with 125/arm. Ignoring a strong PF (relative risk = 5) leads to underestimating the strength of a moderate treatment effect, and the underestimate is independent of n when n is >50/arm. Adjusting for such PF increases statistical power. If the PF is weak (RR = 2), adjustment makes little difference in statistical inference. Conditional on a 5% imbalance of a powerful PF, adjustment reduces the likelihood of large bias. If an absolute measure of imbalance ≥5% is deemed important, including 1000 patients/arm provides sufficient protection against such an imbalance. Two thousand patients/arm may provide an adequate control against large random deviations in treatment effect estimation in the presence of a powerful PF. Conclusions The probability of prognostic imbalance in small trials can be substantial. Covariate adjustment improves estimation accuracy and statistical power, and hence should be performed when strong PFs are observed. PMID:22629322

10 CFR 590.313 - Trial-type hearings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Trial-type hearings. 590.313 Section 590.313 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) NATURAL GAS (ECONOMIC REGULATORY ADMINISTRATION) ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES WITH RESPECT TO THE IMPORT AND EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS Procedures § 590.313 Trial-type hearings. (a) Any...

The Heterogeneous Effect of Information on Student Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in Mexico. Policy Research Working Paper 7422

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Avitabile, Ciro; de Hoyos, Rafael

2015-01-01

A randomized control trial was conducted to study whether providing 10th grade students with information about the returns to upper secondary and tertiary education, and a source of financial aid for tertiary education, can contribute to improve student performance. The study finds that the intervention had no effects on the probability of taking…

Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background As there are limited patients for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia trials, it is important that statistical methodologies in Phase II efficiently select regimens for subsequent evaluation in larger-scale Phase III trials. Methods We propose the screened selection design (SSD), which is a practical multi-stage, randomised Phase II design for two experimental arms. Activity is first evaluated by applying Simon’s two-stage design (1989) on each arm. If both are active, the play-the-winner selection strategy proposed by Simon, Wittes and Ellenberg (SWE) (1985) is applied to select the superior arm. A variant of the design, Modified SSD, also allows the arm with the higher response rates to be recommended only if its activity rate is greater by a clinically-relevant value. The operating characteristics are explored via a simulation study and compared to a Bayesian Selection approach. Results Simulations showed that with the proposed SSD, it is possible to retain the sample size as required in SWE and obtain similar probabilities of selecting the correct superior arm of at least 90%; with the additional attractive benefit of reducing the probability of selecting ineffective arms. This approach is comparable to a Bayesian Selection Strategy. The Modified SSD performs substantially better than the other designs in selecting neither arm if the underlying rates for both arms are desirable but equivalent, allowing for other factors to be considered in the decision making process. Though its probability of correctly selecting a superior arm might be reduced, it still performs reasonably well. It also reduces the probability of selecting an inferior arm. Conclusions SSD provides an easy to implement randomised Phase II design that selects the most promising treatment that has shown sufficient evidence of activity, with available R codes to evaluate its operating characteristics. PMID:23819695

Screened selection design for randomised phase II oncology trials: an example in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

PubMed

Yap, Christina; Pettitt, Andrew; Billingham, Lucinda

2013-07-03

As there are limited patients for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia trials, it is important that statistical methodologies in Phase II efficiently select regimens for subsequent evaluation in larger-scale Phase III trials. We propose the screened selection design (SSD), which is a practical multi-stage, randomised Phase II design for two experimental arms. Activity is first evaluated by applying Simon's two-stage design (1989) on each arm. If both are active, the play-the-winner selection strategy proposed by Simon, Wittes and Ellenberg (SWE) (1985) is applied to select the superior arm. A variant of the design, Modified SSD, also allows the arm with the higher response rates to be recommended only if its activity rate is greater by a clinically-relevant value. The operating characteristics are explored via a simulation study and compared to a Bayesian Selection approach. Simulations showed that with the proposed SSD, it is possible to retain the sample size as required in SWE and obtain similar probabilities of selecting the correct superior arm of at least 90%; with the additional attractive benefit of reducing the probability of selecting ineffective arms. This approach is comparable to a Bayesian Selection Strategy. The Modified SSD performs substantially better than the other designs in selecting neither arm if the underlying rates for both arms are desirable but equivalent, allowing for other factors to be considered in the decision making process. Though its probability of correctly selecting a superior arm might be reduced, it still performs reasonably well. It also reduces the probability of selecting an inferior arm. SSD provides an easy to implement randomised Phase II design that selects the most promising treatment that has shown sufficient evidence of activity, with available R codes to evaluate its operating characteristics.

Does Aggressive Phototherapy Increase Mortality while Decreasing Profound Impairment among the Smallest and Sickest Newborns?

PubMed Central

Tyson, Jon E; Pedroza, Claudia; Langer, John; Green, Charles; Morris, Brenda; Stevenson, David; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Oh, William; Phelps, Dale; O’Shea, Michael; McDavid, Georgia E.; Grisby, Cathy; Higgins, Rose

2013-01-01

Objective Aggressive phototherapy (AgPT) is widely used and assumed to be safe and effective for even the most immature infants. We assessed whether the benefits and hazards for the smallest and sickest infants differed from those for other extremely low birth weight (ELBW; (≤1000 g) infants in our Neonatal Research Network trial, the only large trial of AgPT. Study Design ELBW infants (n=1974) were randomized to AgPT or conservative phototherapy at age 12–36 hours. The effect of AgPT on outcomes (death; impairment; profound impairment; death or impairment [primary outcome], and death or profound impairment) at 18–22 months corrected age was related to BW stratum (501–750 g; 751–1000 g) and baseline severity of illness using multilevel regression equations. The probability of benefit and of harm was directly assessed with Bayesian analyses. Results Baseline illness severity was well characterized using mechanical ventilation and FiO2 at 24 hours age. Among mechanically ventilated infants ≤750 g BW (n =684), a reduction in impairment and in profound impairment was offset by higher mortality (p for interaction <0.05) with no significant effect on composite outcomes. Conservative Bayesian analyses of this subgroup identified a 99% (posterior) probability that AgPT increased mortality, a 97% probability that AgPT reduced impairment, and a 99% probability that AgPT reduced profound impairment. Conclusions Findings from the only large trial of AgPT suggest that AgPT may increase mortality while reducing impairment and profound impairment among the smallest and sickest infants. New approaches to reduce their serum bilirubin need development and rigorous testing. PMID:22652561

Treatment strategies for coronary in-stent restenosis: systematic review and hierarchical Bayesian network meta-analysis of 24 randomised trials and 4880 patients

PubMed Central

Giacoppo, Daniele; Gargiulo, Giuseppe; Aruta, Patrizia; Capranzano, Piera; Tamburino, Corrado

2015-01-01

Study question What is the most safe and effective interventional treatment for coronary in-stent restenosis? Methods In a hierarchical Bayesian network meta-analysis, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and major scientific websites were screened up to 10 August 2015. Randomised controlled trials of patients with any type of coronary in-stent restenosis (either of bare metal stents or drug eluting stents; and either first or recurrent instances) were included. Trials including multiple treatments at the same time in the same group or comparing variants of the same intervention were excluded. Primary endpoints were target lesion revascularisation and late lumen loss, both at six to 12 months. The main analysis was complemented by network subanalyses, standard pairwise comparisons, and subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Study answer and limitations Twenty four trials (4880 patients), including seven interventional treatments, were identified. Compared with plain balloons, bare metal stents, brachytherapy, rotational atherectomy, and cutting balloons, drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents were associated with a reduced risk of target lesion revascularisation and major adverse cardiac events, and with reduced late lumen loss. Treatment ranking indicated that drug eluting stents had the highest probability (61.4%) of being the most effective for target lesion vascularisation; drug coated balloons were similarly indicated as the most effective treatment for late lumen loss (probability 70.3%). The comparative efficacy of drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents was similar for target lesion revascularisation (summary odds ratio 1.10, 95% credible interval 0.59 to 2.01) and late lumen loss reduction (mean difference in minimum lumen diameter 0.04 mm, 95% credible interval −0.20 to 0.10). Risks of death, myocardial infarction, and stent thrombosis were comparable across all treatments, but these analyses were limited by a low number of events. Trials had heterogeneity regarding investigation periods, baseline characteristics, and endpoint reporting, with a lack of information at long term follow-up. Direct and indirect evidence was also inconsistent for the comparison between drug eluting stents and drug coated balloons. What this study adds Compared with other currently available interventional treatments for coronary in-stent restenosis, drug coated balloons and drug eluting stents are associated with superior clinical and angiographic outcomes, with a similar comparative efficacy. Funding, competing interests, data sharing This study received no external funding. The authors declare no competing interests. No additional data available. PMID:26537292

Haemodilution for acute ischaemic stroke

PubMed Central

Chang, Timothy S; Jensen, Matthew B

2014-01-01

Background Ischaemic stroke interrupts the flow of blood to part of the brain. Haemodilution is thought to improve the flow of blood to the affected areas of the brain and thus reduce infarct size. Objectives To assess the effects of haemodilution in acute ischaemic stroke. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register (February 2014), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (Issue 1, 2014), MEDLINE (January 2008 to October 2013) and EMBASE (January 2008 to October 2013). We also searched trials registers, scanned reference lists and contacted authors. For the previous version of the review, the authors contacted manufacturers and investigators in the field. Selection criteria Randomised trials of haemodilution treatment in people with acute ischaemic stroke. We included only trials in which treatment was started within 72 hours of stroke onset. Data collection and analysis Two review authors assessed trial quality and one review author extracted the data. Main results We included 21 trials involving 4174 participants. Nine trials used a combination of venesection and plasma volume expander. Twelve trials used plasma volume expander alone. The plasma volume expander was plasma alone in one trial, dextran 40 in 12 trials, hydroxyethyl starch (HES) in five trials and albumin in three trials. Two trials tested haemodilution in combination with another therapy. Evaluation was blinded in 14 trials. Five trials probably included some participants with intracerebral haemorrhage. Haemodilution did not significantly reduce deaths within the first four weeks (risk ratio (RR) 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90 to 1.34). Similarly, haemodilution did not influence deaths within three to six months (RR 1.05; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.20), or death and dependency or institutionalisation (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.85 to 1.07). The results were similar in confounded and unconfounded trials, and in trials of isovolaemic and hypervolaemic haemodilution. No statistically significant benefits were documented for any particular type of haemodiluting agents, but the statistical power to detect effects of HES was weak. Six trials reported venous thromboembolic events. There was a tendency towards reduction in deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism or both at three to six months’ follow-up (RR 0.68; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.24). There was no statistically significant increased risk of serious cardiac events among haemodiluted participants. Authors’ conclusions The overall results of this review showed no clear evidence of benefit of haemodilution therapy for acute ischaemic stroke. These results are compatible with no persuasive beneficial evidence of haemodilution therapy for acute ischaemic stroke. This therapy has not been proven to improve survival or functional outcome. PMID:25159027

Informed Consent (Clinical Trials)

MedlinePlus

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The fluid events model: Predicting continuous task action change.

PubMed

Radvansky, Gabriel A; D'Mello, Sidney; Abbott, Robert G; Morgan, Brent; Fike, Karl; Tamplin, Andrea K

2015-01-01

The fluid events model is a behavioural model aimed at predicting the likelihood that people will change their actions in ongoing, interactive events. From this view, not only are people responding to aspects of the environment, but they are also basing responses on prior experiences. The fluid events model is an attempt to predict the likelihood that people will shift the type of actions taken within an event on a trial-by-trial basis, taking into account both event structure and experience-based factors. The event-structure factors are: (a) changes in event structure, (b) suitability of the current action to the event, and (c) time on task. The experience-based factors are: (a) whether a person has recently shifted actions, (b) how often a person has shifted actions, (c) whether there has been a dip in performance, and (d) a person's propensity to switch actions within the current task. The model was assessed using data from a series of tasks in which a person was producing responses to events. These were two stimulus-driven figure-drawing studies, a conceptually driven decision-making study, and a probability matching study using a standard laboratory task. This analysis predicted trial-by-trial action switching in a person-independent manner with an average accuracy of 70%, which reflects a 34% improvement above chance. In addition, correlations between overall switch rates and actual switch rates were remarkably high (mean r = .98). The experience-based factors played a more major role than the event-structure factors, but this might be attributable to the nature of the tasks.

The angular gyrus and visuospatial attention in decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Studer, Bettina; Cen, Danlu; Walsh, Vincent

2014-12-01

Recent neuroimaging studies on decision-making under risk indicate that the angular gyrus (AG) is sensitive to the probability and variance of outcomes during choice. A separate body of research has established the AG as a key area in visual attention. The current study used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in healthy volunteers to test whether the causal contribution of the AG to decision-making is independent of or linked to the guidance of visuospatial attention. A within-subject design compared decision making on a laboratory gambling task under three conditions: following rTMS to the AG, following rTMS to the premotor cortex (PMC, as an active control condition) and without TMS. The task presented two different trial types, 'visual' and 'auditory' trials, which entailed a high versus minimal demand for visuospatial attention, respectively. Our results showed a systematic effect of rTMS to the AG upon decision-making behavior in visual trials. Without TMS and following rTMS to the control region, decision latencies reflected the odds of winning; this relationship was disrupted by rTMS to the AG. In contrast, no significant effects of rTMS to the AG (or to the PMC) upon choice behavior in auditory trials were found. Thus, rTMS to the AG affected decision-making only in the task condition requiring visuospatial attention. The current findings suggest that the AG contributes to decision-making by guiding attention to relevant information about reward and punishment in the visual environment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An Asian regional analysis of cost-effectiveness of early irbesartan treatment versus conventional antihypertensive, late amlodipine, and late irbesartan treatments in patients with type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and nephropathy.

PubMed

Annemans, Lieven; Demarteau, Nadia; Hu, Shanlian; Lee, Tae-Jin; Morad, Zaher; Supaporn, Thanom; Yang, Wu-Chang; Palmer, Andrew J

2008-01-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes, often leading to diabetic nephropathy, has increased globally, especially in Asia. Irbesartan treatment delays the progression of kidney disease at the early (microalbuminuria) and late (proteinuria) stages of nephropathy in hypertensive type 2 diabetics. This treatment has proven to be cost-effective in Western countries. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of early irbesartan treatment in Asian settings. An existing lifetime model was reprogrammed in Microsoft Excel to compare irbesartan started at an early stage to irbesartan or amlodipine started at a late stage, and standard treatments from a health-care perspective in China, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. The main effectiveness parameters were incidences of end-stage renal disease, time in dialysis, and life expectancy. All costs were converted to 2004 US$ using official purchasing power parity. Local data were obtained for costs, transplantation,dialysis, and mortality rates. Probabilities regarding disease progression after treatment with the investigated drugs were extracted from two published clinical trials. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Early use of irbesartan yielded the largest clinical and economic benefits reducing need for dialysis by 61% to 63% versus the standard treatment, total costs by 9% (Thailand) to 42% (Taiwan), and increasing life expectancy by 0.31 to 0.48 years. Early irbesartan had a 66% (Thailand) to 95% (Taiwan) probability of being dominant over late irbesartan. Although the absolute results varied in different settings, reflecting differences in epidemiology, management, and costs, early irbesartan treatment was a cost-effective alternative in the Asian settings.

More heads choose better than one: Group decision making can eliminate probability matching.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2016-06-01

Probability matching is a robust and common failure to adhere to normative predictions in sequential decision making. We show that this choice anomaly is nearly eradicated by gathering individual decision makers into small groups and asking the groups to decide. The group choice advantage emerged both when participants generated responses for an entire sequence of choices without outcome feedback (Exp. 1a) and when participants made trial-by-trial predictions with outcome feedback after each decision (Exp. 1b). We show that the dramatic improvement observed in group settings stands in stark contrast to a complete lack of effective solitary deliberation. These findings suggest a crucial role of group discussion in alleviating the impact of hasty intuitive responses in tasks better suited to careful deliberation.

Antibiotic prophylaxis for surgical site infection in people undergoing liver transplantation.

PubMed

Almeida, Ricardo A M B; Hasimoto, Claudia N; Kim, Anna; Hasimoto, Erica N; El Dib, Regina

2015-12-05

Surgical site infection is more frequent in liver transplantation than in other types of solid organ transplantation with different antibiotics. Studies have shown that the rate of surgical site infection varies from 8.8% to 37.5% after liver transplantation. Therefore, antimicrobial prophylaxis is likely an essential tool for reducing these infections. However, the literature lacks evidence indicating the best prophylactic antibiotic regimen that can be used for liver transplantation. To assess the benefits and harms of antibiotic prophylactic regimens for surgical site infection in people undergoing liver transplantation. We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded and Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS). The most recent search was performed on 11 September 2015. All eligible randomised clinical trials comparing any antibiotic regimen versus placebo, versus no intervention or versus another antibiotic regimen for surgical site infection in liver transplant recipients, regardless of age, sex and reason for transplantation. Quasi-randomised studies and other observational studies were considered for data on harm if retrieved with search results for randomised clinical trials. Two review authors selected relevant trials, assessed risk of bias of studies and extracted data. The electronic search identified 786 publications after removal of duplicates. From this search, only one seemingly randomised clinical trial, published in abstract form, fulfilled the inclusion criteria of this review. This trial was conducted at Shiraz Transplant Centre, Shiraz, Iran, where investigators randomly assigned a total of 180 consecutive liver transplant recipients. We judged the overall risk of bias of the trial published in abstract form as high. Researchers reported no numerical data but mentioned that 163 participants met the inclusion criteria after randomisation, and hence were included in the analyses. Most probably, the 17 excluded participants were high-risk liver transplant recipients. Trial authors concluded that they could find no differences between the two antibiotic regimens - ceftriaxone plus metronidazole versus ampicillin-sulbactam plus ceftizoxime - when given to liver transplant recipients. Review authors could not reconfirm the analyses because, as it has been mentioned, trial authors provided no trial data for analyses. Benefits and harms of antibiotic prophylactic regimens for surgical site infection in liver transplantation remain unclear. Additional well-conducted randomised clinical trials adhering to SPIRIT (Spirit Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) and CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) guidelines are needed to determine the exact role of antibiotic prophylactic regimens in patients undergoing liver transplantation.

Adaptive Randomization of Neratinib in Early Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Park, John W.; Liu, Minetta C.; Yee, Douglas; Yau, Christina; van 't Veer, Laura J.; Symmans, W. Fraser; Paoloni, Melissa; Perlmutter, Jane; Hylton, Nola M.; Hogarth, Michael; DeMichele, Angela; Buxton, Meredith B.; Chien, A. Jo; Wallace, Anne M.; Boughey, Judy C.; Haddad, Tufia C.; Chui, Stephen Y.; Kemmer, Kathleen A.; Kaplan, Henry G.; Liu, Minetta C.; Isaacs, Claudine; Nanda, Rita; Tripathy, Debasish; Albain, Kathy S.; Edmiston, Kirsten K.; Elias, Anthony D.; Northfelt, Donald W.; Pusztai, Lajos; Moulder, Stacy L.; Lang, Julie E.; Viscusi, Rebecca K.; Euhus, David M.; Haley, Barbara B.; Khan, Qamar J.; Wood, William C.; Melisko, Michelle; Schwab, Richard; Lyandres, Julia; Davis, Sarah E.; Hirst, Gillian L.; Sanil, Ashish; Esserman, Laura J.; Berry, Donald A.

2017-01-01

Background I-SPY2, a standing, multicenter, adaptive phase 2 neoadjuvant trial ongoing in high-risk clinical stage II/III breast cancer, is designed to evaluate multiple, novel experimental agents added to standard chemotherapy for their ability to improve the rate of pathologic complete response (pCR). Experimental therapies are compared against a common control arm. We report efficacy for the tyrosine kinase inhibitor neratinib. Methods Eligible women had ≥2.5 cm stage II/III breast cancer, categorized into 8 biomarker subtypes based on HER2, hormone-receptor status (HR), and MammaPrint. Neratinib was evaluated for 10 signatures (prospectively defined subtype combinations), with primary endpoint pCR. MR volume changes inform likelihood of pCR for each patient prior to surgery. Adaptive assignment to experimental arms within disease subtype was based on current Bayesian probabilities of superiority over control. Accrual to experimental arm stop at any time for futility or graduation within a particular signature based on Bayesian predictive probability of success in a confirmatory trial. The maximum sample size in any experimental arm is 120 patients, Results With 115 patients and 78 concurrently randomized controls, neratinib graduated in the HER2+/HR− signature, with mean pCR rate 56% (95% PI: 37 to 73%) vs 33% for controls (11 to 54%). Final predictive probability of success, updated when all pathology data were available, was 79%. Conclusion Adaptive, multi-armed trials can efficiently identify responding tumor subtypes. Neratinib added to standard therapy is highly likely to improve pCR rates in HER2+/HR2212; breast cancer. Confirmation in I-SPY 3, a phase 3 neoadjuvant registration trial, is planned. PMID:27406346

Modified Toxicity Probability Interval Design: A Safer and More Reliable Method Than the 3 + 3 Design for Practical Phase I Trials

PubMed Central

Ji, Yuan; Wang, Sue-Jane

2013-01-01

The 3 + 3 design is the most common choice among clinicians for phase I dose-escalation oncology trials. In recent reviews, more than 95% of phase I trials have been based on the 3 + 3 design. Given that it is intuitive and its implementation does not require a computer program, clinicians can conduct 3 + 3 dose escalations in practice with virtually no logistic cost, and trial protocols based on the 3 + 3 design pass institutional review board and biostatistics reviews quickly. However, the performance of the 3 + 3 design has rarely been compared with model-based designs in simulation studies with matched sample sizes. In the vast majority of statistical literature, the 3 + 3 design has been shown to be inferior in identifying true maximum-tolerated doses (MTDs), although the sample size required by the 3 + 3 design is often orders-of-magnitude smaller than model-based designs. In this article, through comparative simulation studies with matched sample sizes, we demonstrate that the 3 + 3 design has higher risks of exposing patients to toxic doses above the MTD than the modified toxicity probability interval (mTPI) design, a newly developed adaptive method. In addition, compared with the mTPI design, the 3 + 3 design does not yield higher probabilities in identifying the correct MTD, even when the sample size is matched. Given that the mTPI design is equally transparent, costless to implement with free software, and more flexible in practical situations, we highly encourage its adoption in early dose-escalation studies whenever the 3 + 3 design is also considered. We provide free software to allow direct comparisons of the 3 + 3 design with other model-based designs in simulation studies with matched sample sizes. PMID:23569307

Neural Mechanisms for Integrating Prior Knowledge and Likelihood in Value-Based Probabilistic Inference

PubMed Central

Ting, Chih-Chung; Yu, Chia-Chen; Maloney, Laurence T.

2015-01-01

In Bayesian decision theory, knowledge about the probabilities of possible outcomes is captured by a prior distribution and a likelihood function. The prior reflects past knowledge and the likelihood summarizes current sensory information. The two combined (integrated) form a posterior distribution that allows estimation of the probability of different possible outcomes. In this study, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying Bayesian integration using a novel lottery decision task in which both prior knowledge and likelihood information about reward probability were systematically manipulated on a trial-by-trial basis. Consistent with Bayesian integration, as sample size increased, subjects tended to weigh likelihood information more compared with prior information. Using fMRI in humans, we found that the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) correlated with the mean of the posterior distribution, a statistic that reflects the integration of prior knowledge and likelihood of reward probability. Subsequent analysis revealed that both prior and likelihood information were represented in mPFC and that the neural representations of prior and likelihood in mPFC reflected changes in the behaviorally estimated weights assigned to these different sources of information in response to changes in the environment. Together, these results establish the role of mPFC in prior-likelihood integration and highlight its involvement in representing and integrating these distinct sources of information. PMID:25632152

ExaCT: automatic extraction of clinical trial characteristics from journal publications

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Clinical trials are one of the most important sources of evidence for guiding evidence-based practice and the design of new trials. However, most of this information is available only in free text - e.g., in journal publications - which is labour intensive to process for systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and other evidence synthesis studies. This paper presents an automatic information extraction system, called ExaCT, that assists users with locating and extracting key trial characteristics (e.g., eligibility criteria, sample size, drug dosage, primary outcomes) from full-text journal articles reporting on randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods ExaCT consists of two parts: an information extraction (IE) engine that searches the article for text fragments that best describe the trial characteristics, and a web browser-based user interface that allows human reviewers to assess and modify the suggested selections. The IE engine uses a statistical text classifier to locate those sentences that have the highest probability of describing a trial characteristic. Then, the IE engine's second stage applies simple rules to these sentences to extract text fragments containing the target answer. The same approach is used for all 21 trial characteristics selected for this study. Results We evaluated ExaCT using 50 previously unseen articles describing RCTs. The text classifier (first stage) was able to recover 88% of relevant sentences among its top five candidates (top5 recall) with the topmost candidate being relevant in 80% of cases (top1 precision). Precision and recall of the extraction rules (second stage) were 93% and 91%, respectively. Together, the two stages of the extraction engine were able to provide (partially) correct solutions in 992 out of 1050 test tasks (94%), with a majority of these (696) representing fully correct and complete answers. Conclusions Our experiments confirmed the applicability and efficacy of ExaCT. Furthermore, they demonstrated that combining a statistical method with 'weak' extraction rules can identify a variety of study characteristics. The system is flexible and can be extended to handle other characteristics and document types (e.g., study protocols). PMID:20920176

Enrichment Strategies in Pediatric Drug Development: An Analysis of Trials Submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration.

PubMed

Green, Dionna J; Liu, Xiaomei I; Hua, Tianyi; Burnham, Janelle M; Schuck, Robert; Pacanowski, Michael; Yao, Lynne; McCune, Susan K; Burckart, Gilbert J; Zineh, Issam

2017-12-08

Clinical trial enrichment involves prospectively incorporating trial design elements that increase the probability of detecting a treatment effect. The use of enrichment strategies in pediatric drug development has not been systematically assessed. We analyzed the use of enrichment strategies in pediatric trials submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration from 2012-2016. In all, 112 efficacy studies associated with 76 drug development programs were assessed and their overall success rates were 78% and 75%, respectively. Eighty-eight trials (76.8%) employed at least one enrichment strategy; of these, 66.3% employed multiple enrichment strategies. The highest trial success rates were achieved when all three enrichment strategies (practical, predictive, and prognostic) were used together within a single trial (87.5%), while the lowest success rate was observed when no enrichment strategy was used (65.4%). The use of enrichment strategies in pediatric trials was found to be associated with trial and program success in our analysis. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Adaptive Randomization of Veliparib-Carboplatin Treatment in Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Rugo, Hope S; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; DeMichele, Angela; Yau, Christina; van 't Veer, Laura J; Buxton, Meredith B; Hogarth, Michael; Hylton, Nola M; Paoloni, Melissa; Perlmutter, Jane; Symmans, W Fraser; Yee, Douglas; Chien, A Jo; Wallace, Anne M; Kaplan, Henry G; Boughey, Judy C; Haddad, Tufia C; Albain, Kathy S; Liu, Minetta C; Isaacs, Claudine; Khan, Qamar J; Lang, Julie E; Viscusi, Rebecca K; Pusztai, Lajos; Moulder, Stacy L; Chui, Stephen Y; Kemmer, Kathleen A; Elias, Anthony D; Edmiston, Kirsten K; Euhus, David M; Haley, Barbara B; Nanda, Rita; Northfelt, Donald W; Tripathy, Debasish; Wood, William C; Ewing, Cheryl; Schwab, Richard; Lyandres, Julia; Davis, Sarah E; Hirst, Gillian L; Sanil, Ashish; Berry, Donald A; Esserman, Laura J

2016-07-07

The genetic and clinical heterogeneity of breast cancer makes the identification of effective therapies challenging. We designed I-SPY 2, a phase 2, multicenter, adaptively randomized trial to screen multiple experimental regimens in combination with standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. The goal is to match experimental regimens with responding cancer subtypes. We report results for veliparib, a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor, combined with carboplatin. In this ongoing trial, women are eligible for participation if they have stage II or III breast cancer with a tumor 2.5 cm or larger in diameter; cancers are categorized into eight biomarker subtypes on the basis of status with regard to human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), hormone receptors, and a 70-gene assay. Patients undergo adaptive randomization within each biomarker subtype to receive regimens that have better performance than the standard therapy. Regimens are evaluated within 10 biomarker signatures (i.e., prospectively defined combinations of biomarker subtypes). Veliparib-carboplatin plus standard therapy was considered for HER2-negative tumors and was therefore evaluated in 3 signatures. The primary end point is pathological complete response. Tumor volume changes measured by magnetic resonance imaging during treatment are used to predict whether a patient will have a pathological complete response. Regimens move on from phase 2 if and when they have a high Bayesian predictive probability of success in a subsequent phase 3 neoadjuvant trial within the biomarker signature in which they performed well. With regard to triple-negative breast cancer, veliparib-carboplatin had an 88% predicted probability of success in a phase 3 trial. A total of 72 patients were randomly assigned to receive veliparib-carboplatin, and 44 patients were concurrently assigned to receive control therapy; at the completion of chemotherapy, the estimated rates of pathological complete response in the triple-negative population were 51% (95% Bayesian probability interval [PI], 36 to 66%) in the veliparib-carboplatin group versus 26% (95% PI, 9 to 43%) in the control group. The toxicity of veliparib-carboplatin was greater than that of the control. The process used in our trial showed that veliparib-carboplatin added to standard therapy resulted in higher rates of pathological complete response than standard therapy alone specifically in triple-negative breast cancer. (Funded by the QuantumLeap Healthcare Collaborative and others; I-SPY 2 TRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01042379.).

Activity interference and noise annoyance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, F. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Birnie, S. E.

1985-11-01

Debate continues over differences in the dose-response functions used to predict the annoyance at different sources of transportation noise. This debate reflects the lack of an accepted model of noise annoyance in residential communities. In this paper a model is proposed which is focussed on activity interference as a central component mediating the relationship between noise exposure and annoyance. This model represents a departure from earlier models in two important respects. First, single event noise levels (e.g., maximum levels, sound exposure level) constitute the noise exposure variables in place of long-term energy equivalent measures (e.g., 24-hour Leq or Ldn). Second, the relationships within the model are expressed as probabilistic rather than deterministic equations. The model has been tested by using acoustical and social survey data collected at 57 sites in the Toronto region exposed to aircraft, road traffic or train noise. Logit analysis was used to estimate two sets of equations. The first predicts the probability of activity interference as a function of event noise level. Four types of interference are included: indoor speech, outdoor speech, difficulty getting to sleep and awakening. The second set predicts the probability of annoyance as a function of the combination of activity interferences. From the first set of equations, it was possible to estimate a function for indoor speech interference only. In this case, the maximum event level was the strongest predictor. The lack of significant results for the other types of interference is explained by the limitations of the data. The same function predicts indoor speech interference for all three sources—road, rail and aircraft noise. The results for the second set of equations show strong relationships between activity interference and the probability of annoyance. Again, the parameters of the logit equations are similar for the three sources. A trial application of the model predicts a higher probability of annoyance for aircraft than for road traffic situations with the same 24-hour Leq. This result suggests that the model may account for previously reported source differences in annoyance.

Controlled Human Malaria Infection (CHMI) differentially affects cell-mediated and antibody responses to CSP and AMA1 induced by adenovirus vaccines with and without DNA-priming.

PubMed

Sedegah, Martha; Hollingdale, Michael R; Farooq, Fouzia; Ganeshan, Harini; Belmonte, Maria; Huang, Jun; Abot, Esteban; Limbach, Keith; Chuang, Ilin; Tamminga, Cindy; Epstein, Judith E; Villasante, Eileen

2015-01-01

We have previously shown that a DNA-prime followed by an adenovirus-5 boost vaccine containing CSP and AMA1 (DNA/Ad) successfully protected 4 of 15 subjects to controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). However, the adenovirus-5 vaccine alone (AdCA) failed to induce protection despite eliciting cellular responses that were often higher than those induced by DNA/Ad. Here we determined the effect of CHMI on pre-CHMI cellular and antibody responses against CSP and AMA1 expressed as fold-changes in activities. Generally, in the DNA/Ad trial, CHMI caused pre-CHMI ELISpot IFN-γ and CD8+ T cell IFN-γ responses of the protected subjects to fall but among non-protected subjects, CHMI caused rises of pre-CHMI ELISpot IFN-γ but falls of CD8+ T cell IFN-γ responses. In contrast in the AdCA trial, CHMI caused both pre-CHMI ELISpot IFN-γ and CD8+ T cell IFN-γ responses of the AdCA subjects to fall. We suggest that the falls in activities are due to migration of peripheral CD8+ T cells to the liver in response to developing liver stage parasites, and this fall, in the DNA/Ad trial, is masked in ELISpot responses of the non-protected subjects by rises in other immune cell types. In addition, CHMI caused falls in antibody activities of protected subjects, but rises in non-protected subjects in both trials to CSP, and dramatically in the AdCA trial to AMA1, reaching 380 μg/ml that is probably due to boosting by transient blood stage infection before chloroquine treatment. Taken together, these results further define differences in cellular responses between DNA/Ad and AdCA trials, and suggest that natural transmission may boost responses induced by these malaria vaccines especially when protection is not achieved.

Are race, ethnicity, and medical school affiliation associated with NIH R01 type 1 award probability for physician investigators?

PubMed

Ginther, Donna K; Haak, Laurel L; Schaffer, Walter T; Kington, Raynard

2012-11-01

To analyze the relationship among National Institutes of Health (NIH) R01 Type 1 applicant degree, institution type, and race/ethnicity, and application award probability. The authors used 2000-2006 data from the NIH IMPAC II grants database and other sources to determine which individual and institutional characteristics of applicants may affect the probability of applications being awarded funding. They used descriptive statistics and probit models to estimate correlations between race/ethnicity, degree (MD or PhD), and institution type (medical school or other institution), and application award probability, controlling for a large set of observable characteristics. Applications from medical schools were significantly more likely than those from other institutions to receive funding, as were applications from MDs versus PhDs. Overall, applications from blacks and Asians were less likely than those from whites to be awarded funding; however, among applications from MDs at medical schools, there was no difference in funding probability between whites and Asians, and the difference between blacks and whites decreased to 7.8%. The inclusion of human subjects significantly decreased the likelihood of receiving funding. Compared with applications from whites, applications from blacks have a lower probability of being awarded R01 Type 1 funding, regardless of the investigator's degree. However, funding probability is increased for applications with MD investigators and for those from medical schools. To some degree, these advantages combine so that applications from black MDs at medical schools have the smallest difference in funding probability compared with those from whites.

Are Race, Ethnicity, and Medical School Affiliation Associated With NIH R01 Type Award Probability for Physician Investigators?

PubMed Central

Ginther, Donna K.; Haak, Laurel L.; Schaffer, Walter T.; Kington, Raynard

2012-01-01

Purpose To analyze the relationship among NIH R01 Type 1 applicant degree, institution type, and race/ethnicity, and application award probability. Method The authors used 2000–2006 data from the NIH IMPAC II grants database and other sources to determine which individual and institutional characteristics of applicants may affect the probability of applications being awarded funding. They used descriptive statistics and probit models to estimate correlations between race/ethnicity, degree (MD or PhD), and institution type (medical school or other institution), and application award probability, controlling for a large set of observable characteristics. Results Applications from medical schools were significantly more likely than those from other institutions to receive funding, as were applications from MDs versus PhDs. Overall, applications from blacks and Asians were less likely than those from whites to be awarded funding; however, among applications from MDs at medical schools, there was no difference in funding probability between whites and Asians and the difference between blacks and whites decreased to 7.8 percentage points. The inclusion of human subjects significantly decreased the likelihood of receiving funding. Conclusions Compared with applications from whites, applications from blacks have a lower probability of being awarded R01 Type 1 funding, regardless of the investigator’s degree. However, funding probability is increased for applications with MD investigators and for those from medical schools. To some degree, these advantages combine so that applications from black MDs at medical schools have the smallest difference in funding probability compared with those from whites. PMID:23018334

Botulinum toxin type A versus botulinum toxin type B for cervical dystonia.

PubMed

Duarte, Gonçalo S; Castelão, Mafalda; Rodrigues, Filipe B; Marques, Raquel E; Ferreira, Joaquim; Sampaio, Cristina; Moore, Austen P; Costa, João

2016-10-26

This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2003. Cervical dystonia is the most common form of focal dystonia and is a disabling disorder characterised by painful involuntary head posturing. There are two available formulations of botulinum toxin, with botulinum toxin type A (BtA) usually considered the first line therapy for this condition. Botulinum toxin type B (BtB) is an alternative option, with no compelling theoretical reason why it might not be as- or even more effective - than BtA. To compare the efficacy, safety and tolerability of botulinum toxin type A (BtA) versus botulinum toxin type B (BtB) in people with cervical dystonia. To identify studies for this review we searched the Cochrane Movement Disorders Group Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, reference lists of articles and conference proceedings. All elements of the search, with no language restrictions, were last run in October 2016. Double-blind, parallel, randomised, placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) comparing BtA versus BtB in adults with cervical dystonia. Two independent authors assessed records, selected included studies, extracted data using a paper pro forma, and evaluated the risk of bias. We resolved disagreements by consensus or by consulting a third author. We performed meta-analyses using the random-effects model, for the comparison BtA versus BtB to estimate pooled effects and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). No prespecified subgroup analyses were carried out. The primary efficacy outcome was improvement on any validated symptomatic rating scale, and the primary safety outcome was the proportion of participants with adverse events. We included three RCTs, all new to this update, of very low to low methodological quality, with a total of 270 participants.Two studies exclusively enrolled participants with a known positive response to BtA treatment. This raises concerns of population enrichment, with a higher probability of benefit from BtA treatment. None of the trials were free of for-profit bias, nor did they provide information regarding registered study protocols. All trials evaluated the effect of a single Bt treatment session, and not repeated treatment sessions, using doses from 100 U to 250 U of BtA (all onabotulinumtoxinA, or Botox, formulations) and 5000 U to 10,000 U of BtB (rimabotulinumtoxinB, or Myobloc/Neurobloc).We found no difference between the two types of botulinum toxin in terms of overall efficacy, with a mean difference of -1.44 (95% CI -3.58 to 0.70) points lower on the Toronto Western Spasmodic Torticollis Rating Scale (TWSTRS) for BtB-treated participants, measured at two to four weeks after injection. The proportion of participants with adverse events was also not different between BtA and BtB (BtB versus BtA risk ratio (RR) 1.40; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.96). However, when compared to BtA, treatment with BtB was associated with an increased risk of one adverse events of special interest, namely treatment-related sore throat/dry mouth (BtB versus BtA RR of 4.39; 95% CI 2.43 to 7.91). Treatment-related dysphagia (swallowing difficulties) was not different between BtA and BtB (RR 2.89; 95% CI 0.80 to 10.41). The two types of botulinum toxin were otherwise clinically non-distinguishable in all the remaining outcomes. The previous version of this review did not include any trials, since these were still ongoing at the time. Therefore, with this update we are able to change the conclusions of this review. There is low quality evidence that a single treatment session of BtA (specifically onabotulinumtoxinA) and a single treatment session of BtB (rimabotulinumtoxinB) are equally effective and safe in the treatment of adults with certain types of cervical dystonia. Treatment with BtB appears to present an increased risk of sore throat/dry mouth, compared to BtA. Overall, there is no clinical evidence from these single-treatment trials to support or contest the preferential use of one form of botulinum toxin over the other.

Ensemble codes involving hippocampal neurons are at risk during delayed performance tests.

PubMed

Hampson, R E; Deadwyler, S A

1996-11-26

Multielectrode recording techniques were used to record ensemble activity from 10 to 16 simultaneously active CA1 and CA3 neurons in the rat hippocampus during performance of a spatial delayed-nonmatch-to-sample task. Extracted sources of variance were used to assess the nature of two different types of errors that accounted for 30% of total trials. The two types of errors included ensemble "miscodes" of sample phase information and errors associated with delay-dependent corruption or disappearance of sample information at the time of the nonmatch response. Statistical assessment of trial sequences and associated "strength" of hippocampal ensemble codes revealed that miscoded error trials always followed delay-dependent error trials in which encoding was "weak," indicating that the two types of errors were "linked." It was determined that the occurrence of weakly encoded, delay-dependent error trials initiated an ensemble encoding "strategy" that increased the chances of being correct on the next trial and avoided the occurrence of further delay-dependent errors. Unexpectedly, the strategy involved "strongly" encoding response position information from the prior (delay-dependent) error trial and carrying it forward to the sample phase of the next trial. This produced a miscode type error on trials in which the "carried over" information obliterated encoding of the sample phase response on the next trial. Application of this strategy, irrespective of outcome, was sufficient to reorient the animal to the proper between trial sequence of response contingencies (nonmatch-to-sample) and boost performance to 73% correct on subsequent trials. The capacity for ensemble analyses of strength of information encoding combined with statistical assessment of trial sequences therefore provided unique insight into the "dynamic" nature of the role hippocampus plays in delay type memory tasks.

The cognitive behavioural prevention of suicide in psychosis: a clinical trial.

PubMed

Tarrier, Nicholas; Kelly, James; Maqsood, Sehar; Snelson, Natasha; Maxwell, Janet; Law, Heather; Dunn, Graham; Gooding, Patricia

2014-07-01

Suicide behaviour in psychosis is a significant clinical and social problem. There is a dearth of evidence for psychological interventions designed to reduce suicide risk in this population. To evaluate a novel, manualised, cognitive behavioural treatment protocol (CBSPp) based upon an empirically validated theoretical model. A randomly controlled trial with independent and masked allocated and assessment of CBSPp with TAU (n=25, 24 sessions) compared to TAU alone (n=24) using standardised assessments. Measures of suicide probability, and suicidal ideation were the primary outcomes and measures of hopelessness, depression, psychotic symptoms, functioning, and self-esteem were the secondary outcomes, assessed at 4 and 6 months follow-up. The CBSPp group improved differentially to the TAU group on two out of three primary outcome measures of suicidal ideation and suicide probability, and on secondary outcomes of hopelessness related to suicide probability, depression, some psychotic symptoms and self-esteem. CBSPp is a feasible intervention which has the potential to reduce proxy measures of suicide in psychotic patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preference Reversals in Decision Making Under Risk are Accompanied by Changes in Attention to Different Attributes.

PubMed

Kim, Betty E; Seligman, Darryl; Kable, Joseph W

2012-01-01

Recent work has shown that visual fixations reflect and influence trial-to-trial variability in people's preferences between goods. Here we extend this principle to attribute weights during decision making under risk. We measured eye movements while people chose between two risky gambles or bid on a single gamble. Consistent with previous work, we found that people exhibited systematic preference reversals between choices and bids. For two gambles matched in expected value, people systematically chose the higher probability option but provided a higher bid for the option that offered the greater amount to win. This effect was accompanied by a shift in fixations of the two attributes, with people fixating on probabilities more during choices and on amounts more during bids. Our results suggest that the construction of value during decision making under risk depends on task context partly because the task differentially directs attention at probabilities vs. amounts. Since recent work demonstrates that neural correlates of value vary with visual fixations, our results also suggest testable hypotheses regarding how task context modulates the neural computation of value to generate preference reversals.

Model‐Based Approach to Predict Adherence to Protocol During Antiobesity Trials

PubMed Central

Sharma, Vishnu D.; Combes, François P.; Vakilynejad, Majid; Lahu, Gezim; Lesko, Lawrence J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Development of antiobesity drugs is continuously challenged by high dropout rates during clinical trials. The objective was to develop a population pharmacodynamic model that describes the temporal changes in body weight, considering disease progression, lifestyle intervention, and drug effects. Markov modeling (MM) was applied for quantification and characterization of responder and nonresponder as key drivers of dropout rates, to ultimately support the clinical trial simulations and the outcome in terms of trial adherence. Subjects (n = 4591) from 6 Contrave® trials were included in this analysis. An indirect‐response model developed by van Wart et al was used as a starting point. Inclusion of drug effect was dose driven using a population dose‐ and time‐dependent pharmacodynamic (DTPD) model. Additionally, a population‐pharmacokinetic parameter‐ and data (PPPD)‐driven model was developed using the final DTPD model structure and final parameter estimates from a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model based on available Contrave® pharmacokinetic concentrations. Last, MM was developed to predict transition rate probabilities among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states driven by the pharmacodynamic effect resulting from the DTPD or PPPD model. Covariates included in the models and parameters were diabetes mellitus and race. The linked DTPD‐MM and PPPD‐MM was able to predict transition rates among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states well. The analysis concluded that body‐weight change is an important factor influencing dropout rates, and the MM depicted that overall a DTPD model‐driven approach provides a reasonable prediction of clinical trial outcome probabilities similar to a pharmacokinetic‐driven approach. PMID:28858397

Connecting blazars with ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays and astrophysical neutrinos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Resconi, E.; Coenders, S.; Padovani, P.; Giommi, P.; Caccianiga, L.

2017-06-01

We present a strong hint of a connection between high-energy γ-ray emitting blazars, very high energy neutrinos, and ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays. We first identify potential hadronic sources by filtering γ-ray emitters in spatial coincidence with the high-energy neutrinos detected by IceCube. The neutrino filtered γ-ray emitters are then correlated with the ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays from the Pierre Auger Observatory and the Telescope Array by scanning in γ-ray flux (Fγ) and angular separation (θ) between sources and cosmic rays. A maximal excess of 80 cosmic rays (42.5 expected) is found at θ ≤ 10° from the neutrino-filtered γ-ray emitters selected from the second hard Fermi-LAT catalogue (2FHL) and for Fγ(>50 GeV) ≥ 1.8 × 10-11 ph cm-2 s-1. The probability for this to happen is 2.4 × 10-5, which translates to ˜2.4 × 10-3 after compensation for all the considered trials. No excess of cosmic rays is instead observed for the complement sample of γ-ray emitters (I.e. not in spatial connection with IceCube neutrinos). A likelihood ratio test comparing the connection between the neutrino-filtered and the complement source samples with the cosmic rays favours a connection between neutrino-filtered emitters and cosmic rays with a probability of ˜1.8 × 10-3 (2.9σ) after compensation for all the considered trials. The neutrino-filtered γ-ray sources that make up the cosmic rays excess are blazars of the high synchrotron peak type. More statistics is needed to further investigate these sources as candidate cosmic ray and neutrino emitters.

Association between organic food consumption and metabolic syndrome: cross-sectional results from the NutriNet-Santé study.

PubMed

Baudry, Julia; Lelong, Hélène; Adriouch, Solia; Julia, Chantal; Allès, Benjamin; Hercberg, Serge; Touvier, Mathilde; Lairon, Denis; Galan, Pilar; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle

2017-08-02

Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a multicomponent condition, is a cardiovascular disease predictor. Although exposure to agricultural pesticides has been suggested as a potential contributor to the rising rates of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other features of metabolic disorders, no studies have focused on the association between consumption of organic food (produced without synthetic pesticides) and MetS. We aimed to investigate the cross-sectional association between organic food consumption and MetS in French adults to determine whether it would be worth conducting further studies, particularly large prospective and randomised trials. A total of 8174 participants from the NutriNet-Santé study who attended a clinical visit and completed an organic food frequency questionnaire were included in this cross-sectional analysis. We evaluated the association between the proportion of organic food in the diet (overall and by food group) and MetS using Poisson regression models while adjusting for potential confounders. Higher organic food consumption was negatively associated with the prevalence of MetS: adjusted prevalence ratio was 0.69 (95% CI 0.61, 0.78) when comparing the third tertile of proportion of organic food in the diet with the first one (p value <0.0001). Higher consumption of organic plant-based foods was also related to a lower probability of having MetS. In addition, when stratifying by lifestyle factors (nutritional quality of the diet, smoking status, and physical activity), a significant negative association was detected in each subgroup (p values <0.05), except among smokers. Our results showed that a higher organic food consumption was associated with a lower probability of having MetS. Additional prospective studies and randomised trials are required to ascertain the relationship between organic food consumption and metabolic disorders.

Occurrence and lung cancer probability of new solid nodules at incidence screening with low-dose CT: analysis of data from the randomised, controlled NELSON trial.

PubMed

Walter, Joan E; Heuvelmans, Marjolein A; de Jong, Pim A; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; van Ooijen, Peter M A; Peters, Robin B; Ten Haaf, Kevin; Yousaf-Khan, Uraujh; van der Aalst, Carlijn M; de Bock, Geertruida H; Mali, Willem; Groen, Harry J M; de Koning, Harry J; Oudkerk, Matthijs

2016-07-01

US guidelines now recommend lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for high-risk individuals. Reports of new nodules after baseline screening have been scarce and are inconsistent because of differences in definitions used. We aimed to identify the occurrence of new solid nodules and their probability of being lung cancer at incidence screening rounds in the Dutch-Belgian Randomized Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NELSON). In the ongoing, multicentre, randomised controlled NELSON trial, between Dec 23, 2003, and July 6, 2006, 15 822 participants who had smoked at least 15 cigarettes a day for more than 25 years or ten cigarettes a day for more than 30 years and were current smokers, or had quit smoking less than 10 years ago, were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive either screening with low-dose CT (n=7915) or no screening (n=7907). From Jan 28, 2004, to Dec 18, 2006, 7557 individuals underwent baseline screening with low-dose CT; 7295 participants underwent second and third screening rounds. We included all participants with solid non-calcified nodules, registered by the NELSON radiologists as new or smaller than 15 mm(3) (study detection limit) at previous screens. Nodule volume was generated semiautomatically by software. We calculated the maximum volume doubling time for nodules with an estimated percentage volume change of 25% or more, representing the minimum growth rate for the time since the previous scan. Lung cancer diagnosis was based on histology, and benignity was based on histology or stable size for at least 2 years. The NELSON trial is registered at trialregister.nl, number ISRCTN63545820. We analysed data for participants with at least one solid non-calcified nodule at the second or third screening round. In the two incidence screening rounds, the NELSON radiologists registered 1222 new solid nodules in 787 (11%) participants. A new solid nodule was lung cancer in 49 (6%) participants with new solid nodules and, in total, 50 lung cancers were found, representing 4% of all new solid nodules. 34 (68%) lung cancers were diagnosed at stage I. Nodule volume had a high discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating curve 0·795 [95% CI 0·728-0·862]; p<0·0001). Nodules smaller than 27 mm(3) had a low probability of lung cancer (two [0·5%] of 417 nodules; lung cancer probability 0·5% [95% CI 0·0-1·9]), nodules with a volume of 27 mm(3) up to 206 mm(3) had an intermediate probability (17 [3·1%] of 542 nodules; lung cancer probability 3·1% [1·9-5·0]), and nodules of 206 mm(3) or greater had a high probability (29 [16·9%] of 172 nodules; lung cancer probability 16·9% [12·0-23·2]). A volume cutoff value of 27 mm(3) or greater had more than 95% sensitivity for lung cancer. Our study shows that new solid nodules are detected at each screening round in 5-7% of individuals who undergo screening for lung cancer with low-dose CT. These new nodules have a high probability of malignancy even at a small size. These findings should be considered in future screening guidelines, and new solid nodules should be followed up more aggressively than nodules detected at baseline screening. Zorgonderzoek Nederland Medische Wetenschappen and Koningin Wilhelmina Fonds Kankerbestrijding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stent thrombosis and major clinical events at 3 years after zotarolimus-eluting or sirolimus-eluting coronary stent implantation: a randomised, multicentre, open-label, controlled trial.

PubMed

Camenzind, Edoardo; Wijns, William; Mauri, Laura; Kurowski, Volkhard; Parikh, Keyur; Gao, Runlin; Bode, Christoph; Greenwood, John P; Boersma, Eric; Vranckx, Pascal; McFadden, Eugene; Serruys, Patrick W; O'Neil, William W; Jorissen, Brenda; Van Leeuwen, Frank; Steg, Ph Gabriel

2012-10-20

We sought to compare the long-term safety of two devices with different antiproliferative properties: the Endeavor zotarolimus-eluting stent (E-ZES; Medtronic, Inc) and the Cypher sirolimus-eluting stent (C-SES; Cordis, Johnson & Johnson) in a broad group of patients and lesions. Between May 21, 2007 and Dec 22, 2008, we recruited 8791 patients from 36 recruiting countries to participate in this open-label, multicentre, randomised, superiority trial. Eligible patients were those aged 18 years or older undergoing elective, unplanned, or emergency procedures in native coronary arteries. Patients were randomly assigned to either receive E-ZES and C-SES (ratio 1:1). Randomisation was stratified per centre with varying block sizes of four, six, or eight patients, and concealed with a central telephone-based or web-based allocation service. The primary outcome was definite or probable stent thrombosis at 3 years and was analysed by intention to treat. Patients and investigators were aware of treatment assignment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00476957. PROTECT randomised 8791 patients, of whom 8709 provided consent to participate and were eligible: 4357 were allocated to the E-ZES group and 4352 patients to the C-SES group. At 3 years, rates of definite or probable stent thrombosis did not differ between groups (1·4% for E-ZES [predicted: 1·5%] vs 1·8% [predicted: 2·5%] for C-SES; hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·58-1·14, p=0·22). Dual antiplatelet therapy was used in 8402 (96%) patients at discharge, 7456 (88%) at 1 year, 3041 (37%) at 2 years, and 2364 (30%) at 3 years. No evidence of superiority of E-ZES compared with C-SES in definite or probable stent thrombosis rates was noted at 3 years. Time analysis suggests a difference in definite or probable stent thrombosis between groups is emerging over time, and a longer follow-up is therefore needed given the clinical relevance of stent thrombosis. Medtronic, Inc. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A product of independent beta probabilities dose escalation design for dual-agent phase I trials.

PubMed

Mander, Adrian P; Sweeting, Michael J

2015-04-15

Dual-agent trials are now increasingly common in oncology research, and many proposed dose-escalation designs are available in the statistical literature. Despite this, the translation from statistical design to practical application is slow, as has been highlighted in single-agent phase I trials, where a 3 + 3 rule-based design is often still used. To expedite this process, new dose-escalation designs need to be not only scientifically beneficial but also easy to understand and implement by clinicians. In this paper, we propose a curve-free (nonparametric) design for a dual-agent trial in which the model parameters are the probabilities of toxicity at each of the dose combinations. We show that it is relatively trivial for a clinician's prior beliefs or historical information to be incorporated in the model and updating is fast and computationally simple through the use of conjugate Bayesian inference. Monotonicity is ensured by considering only a set of monotonic contours for the distribution of the maximum tolerated contour, which defines the dose-escalation decision process. Varied experimentation around the contour is achievable, and multiple dose combinations can be recommended to take forward to phase II. Code for R, Stata and Excel are available for implementation. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbohydrate feeding and glycogen synthesis during exercise in man.

PubMed

Kuipers, H; Keizer, H A; Brouns, F; Saris, W H

1987-12-01

In 7 male cyclists glycogen synthesis during exercise and rest was studied. Each subject did two exercise trials (A and B), in random order. In both trials, after determining the maximal workload (Wmax), intermittent exercise was given to exhaustion. After the exhaustive exercise and taking a muscle biopsy the subjects either exercised at 40% Wmax for 3 h (trial A) or rested for 3 h (trial B), during which they consumed approximately 2 l of a 25% malto-dextrine drink in both trials. After 3 h rest (trial A) or 3 h of mild exercise (trial B) a second muscle biopsy was taken for total glycogen and histochemistry (ATPase and PAS). Blood glucose and insulin levels were elevated during the first 2 h of exercise (p less than 0.05). Glycogen depletion was most pronounced in type I and to a less extent in type IIA fibers. In trial A muscle glycogen increased from 136 +/- 66 to 199 +/- 71 mmol/kg DW, and in trial B from 145 +/- 56 to 257 +/- 79 mmol/kg DW. During exercise glycogen repletion was restricted to type IIA and IIB fibers, whereas during rest glycogen synthesis occurred both in type I and type II fibers. The present study demonstrates that oral carbohydrate administered during exercise may not only provide substrate for energy metabolism, but can also be utilized for glycogen synthesis in the non-active muscle fibers.

Fluid composition and acute kidney injury.

PubMed

Zampieri, Fernando G; Libório, Alexandre B; Cavalcanti, Alexandre B

2016-12-01

To describe recent advances in the understanding of the role of fluid composition in renal outcomes in critically ill patients. The debate on fluid composition is now focused in a pragmatic discussion on fluid electrolyte composition. The resurgence of this debate was propelled by several observational studies that suggested that balanced (i.e., low chloride) solutions were associated with less acute kidney injury in critically ill patients. Nevertheless, a cluster randomized trial failed to show any benefit of balanced solutions. This trial, however, may have failed to detect an effect because of low global illness severity and little fluid infused. If balanced solutions are to be associated with less acute kidney injury, it will probably be in high risk, aggressively resuscitated patients. Additionally, the causal loop involving unbalanced solution infusion, induction of hyperchloremia and acute kidney injury is yet to be closed. Other factors, such as buffer type, speed of infusion and temperature, among others, may also be important. Recent evidence suggests that crystalloid fluid composition matters and can influence renal outcomes in critically ill patients. Further studies should assess the impact and cost-efficiency of balanced solutions in the context of high-risk scenarios.

Are temporal characteristics of fast repetitive oscillating movement invariant?

PubMed

Gutnik, B J; Nicholson, J; Go, W; Gale, D; Nash, D

2003-06-01

Validation of the proportional duration model was attempted using very fast single-joint repetitive horizontal abductive-adductive movements of the stretched upper extremity with minimal cognitive input. Participants drew oscillating horizontal lines during 20 sec. over relatively short distances as quickly as possible without visual feedback. Spatial, temporal, and kinetic parameters were analysed. The amplitude and the time spent accelerating, decelerating, and reversing in both directions of each experimental line were recorded and related to the centre of gravity of the upper extremity. The accelerations of the centre of mass of the upper extremity were calculated and used to calculate the forces involved. The ratios of durations were compared and intercorrelated for the two fastest, two average, and two slowest cycles from each participant. Results exhibited significant standard deviations and variability of temporal and kinetic parameters within individual trials. The number of significant coefficients of correlation within individual trials was small despite the controlling influence of the same generalised motor program. The proportional duration model did not hold for our data. Peripheral factors (probably the length-tension relationship rule for skeletal muscles and viscosity of muscle) may be important in this type of action.

Control of Working Memory in Rhesus Monkeys (Macaca mulatta)

PubMed Central

Tu, Hsiao-Wei; Hampton, Robert R.

2014-01-01

Cognitive control is critical for efficiently using the limited resources in working memory. It is well established that humans use rehearsal to increase the probability of remembering needed information, but little is known in nonhumans, with some studies reporting the absence of active control and others subject to alternative explanations. We trained monkeys in a visual matching-to-sample paradigm with a post-sample memory cue. Monkeys either saw a remember cue that predicted the occurrence of a matching test that required memory for the sample, or a forget cue that predicted a discrimination test that did not require memory of the sample. Infrequent probe trials on which monkeys were given tests of the type not cued on that trial were used to assess whether memory was under cognitive control. Our procedures controlled for reward expectation and for the surprising nature of the probes. Monkeys matched less accurately after forget cues, while discrimination accuracy was equivalent in the two cue conditions. We also tested monkeys with lists of two consecutive sample images that shared the same cue. Again, memory for expected memory tests was superior to that on unexpected tests. Together these results show that monkeys cognitively control their working memory. PMID:25436219

On convergence of differential evolution over a class of continuous functions with unique global optimum.

PubMed

Ghosh, Sayan; Das, Swagatam; Vasilakos, Athanasios V; Suresh, Kaushik

2012-02-01

Differential evolution (DE) is arguably one of the most powerful stochastic real-parameter optimization algorithms of current interest. Since its inception in the mid 1990s, DE has been finding many successful applications in real-world optimization problems from diverse domains of science and engineering. This paper takes a first significant step toward the convergence analysis of a canonical DE (DE/rand/1/bin) algorithm. It first deduces a time-recursive relationship for the probability density function (PDF) of the trial solutions, taking into consideration the DE-type mutation, crossover, and selection mechanisms. Then, by applying the concepts of Lyapunov stability theorems, it shows that as time approaches infinity, the PDF of the trial solutions concentrates narrowly around the global optimum of the objective function, assuming the shape of a Dirac delta distribution. Asymptotic convergence behavior of the population PDF is established by constructing a Lyapunov functional based on the PDF and showing that it monotonically decreases with time. The analysis is applicable to a class of continuous and real-valued objective functions that possesses a unique global optimum (but may have multiple local optima). Theoretical results have been substantiated with relevant computer simulations.

Spontaneous knotting of an agitated string.

PubMed

Raymer, Dorian M; Smith, Douglas E

2007-10-16

It is well known that a jostled string tends to become knotted; yet the factors governing the "spontaneous" formation of various knots are unclear. We performed experiments in which a string was tumbled inside a box and found that complex knots often form within seconds. We used mathematical knot theory to analyze the knots. Above a critical string length, the probability P of knotting at first increased sharply with length but then saturated below 100%. This behavior differs from that of mathematical self-avoiding random walks, where P has been proven to approach 100%. Finite agitation time and jamming of the string due to its stiffness result in lower probability, but P approaches 100% with long, flexible strings. We analyzed the knots by calculating their Jones polynomials via computer analysis of digital photos of the string. Remarkably, almost all were identified as prime knots: 120 different types, having minimum crossing numbers up to 11, were observed in 3,415 trials. All prime knots with up to seven crossings were observed. The relative probability of forming a knot decreased exponentially with minimum crossing number and Möbius energy, mathematical measures of knot complexity. Based on the observation that long, stiff strings tend to form a coiled structure when confined, we propose a simple model to describe the knot formation based on random "braid moves" of the string end. Our model can qualitatively account for the observed distribution of knots and dependence on agitation time and string length.

Multicenter, randomized trial of quantitative pretest probability to reduce unnecessary medical radiation exposure in emergency department patients with chest pain and dyspnea.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey A; Jones, Alan E; Shapiro, Nathan I; Hernandez, Jackeline; Hogg, Melanie M; Troyer, Jennifer; Nelson, R Darrel

2014-01-01

Use of pretest probability can reduce unnecessary testing. We hypothesize that quantitative pretest probability, linked to evidence-based management strategies, can reduce unnecessary radiation exposure and cost in low-risk patients with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism. This was a prospective, 4-center, randomized controlled trial of decision support effectiveness. Subjects were adults with chest pain and dyspnea, nondiagnostic ECGs, and no obvious diagnosis. The clinician provided data needed to compute pretest probabilities from a Web-based system. Clinicians randomized to the intervention group received the pretest probability estimates for both acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism and suggested clinical actions designed to lower radiation exposure and cost. The control group received nothing. Patients were followed for 90 days. The primary outcome and sample size of 550 was predicated on a significant reduction in the proportion of healthy patients exposed to >5 mSv chest radiation. A total of 550 patients were randomized, and 541 had complete data. The proportion with >5 mSv to the chest and no significant cardiopulmonary diagnosis within 90 days was reduced from 33% to 25% (P=0.038). The intervention group had significantly lower median chest radiation exposure (0.06 versus 0.34 mSv; P=0.037, Mann-Whitney U test) and lower median costs ($934 versus $1275; P=0.018) for medical care. Adverse events occurred in 16% of controls and 11% in the intervention group (P=0.06). Provision of pretest probability and prescriptive advice reduced radiation exposure and cost of care in low-risk ambulatory patients with symptoms of acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01059500.

Neuro-, Trauma -, or Med/Surg-ICU: Does it matter where polytrauma patients with TBI are admitted? Secondary analysis of AAST-MITC decompressive craniectomy study

PubMed Central

Scalea, Tom; Sperry, Jason; Coimbra, Raul; Vercruysse, Gary; Jurkovich, Gregory J; Nirula, Ram

2016-01-01

Introduction Patients with non-traumatic acute intracranial pathology benefit from neurointensivist care. Similarly, trauma patients with and without TBI fare better when treated by a dedicated trauma team. No study has yet evaluated the role of specialized neurocritical (NICU) and trauma intensive care units (TICU) in the management of TBI patients, and it remains unclear which TBI patients are best served in NICU, TICU, or general (Med/Surg) ICU. Methods This study is a secondary analysis of The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Multi-Institutional Trials Committee (AAST-MITC) decompressive craniectomy study. Twelve Level 1 trauma centers provided clinical data and head CT scans of patients with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤13 and CT evidence of TBI. Non-ICU admissions were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to measure the association between ICU-type and survival and calculate the probability of death for increasing ISS. Polytrauma patients (ISS > 15) with TBI and isolated TBI patients (other AIS < 3) were analyzed separately. Results There were 3641 patients with CT evidence of TBI with 2951 admitted to an ICU. Prior to adjustment, patient demographics, injury severity, and survival differed significantly by unit type. After adjustment, unit-type, age and ISS remained independent predictors of death. Unit-type modified the effect of ISS on mortality. TBI-polytrauma patients admitted to a TICU had improved survival across increasing ISS (Fig1). Survival for isolated TBI patients was similar between TICU and NICU. Med/Surg ICU carried the greatest probability of death. Conclusion Polytrauma patients with TBI have lower mortality risk when admitted to a Trauma ICU. This survival benefit increases with increasing injury severity. Isolated TBI patients have similar mortality risk when admitted to a Neuro ICU compared to a Trauma ICU. Med/Surg ICU admission carries the highest mortality risk. PMID:28225527

Using Bayesian Adaptive Trial Designs for Comparative Effectiveness Research: A Virtual Trial Execution.

PubMed

Luce, Bryan R; Connor, Jason T; Broglio, Kristine R; Mullins, C Daniel; Ishak, K Jack; Saunders, Elijah; Davis, Barry R

2016-09-20

Bayesian and adaptive clinical trial designs offer the potential for more efficient processes that result in lower sample sizes and shorter trial durations than traditional designs. To explore the use and potential benefits of Bayesian adaptive clinical trial designs in comparative effectiveness research. Virtual execution of ALLHAT (Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial) as if it had been done according to a Bayesian adaptive trial design. Comparative effectiveness trial of antihypertensive medications. Patient data sampled from the more than 42 000 patients enrolled in ALLHAT with publicly available data. Number of patients randomly assigned between groups, trial duration, observed numbers of events, and overall trial results and conclusions. The Bayesian adaptive approach and original design yielded similar overall trial conclusions. The Bayesian adaptive trial randomly assigned more patients to the better-performing group and would probably have ended slightly earlier. This virtual trial execution required limited resampling of ALLHAT patients for inclusion in RE-ADAPT (REsearch in ADAptive methods for Pragmatic Trials). Involvement of a data monitoring committee and other trial logistics were not considered. In a comparative effectiveness research trial, Bayesian adaptive trial designs are a feasible approach and potentially generate earlier results and allocate more patients to better-performing groups. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Modelling the regional variability of the probability of high trihalomethane occurrence in municipal drinking water.

PubMed

Cool, Geneviève; Lebel, Alexandre; Sadiq, Rehan; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2015-12-01

The regional variability of the probability of occurrence of high total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels was assessed using multilevel logistic regression models that incorporate environmental and infrastructure characteristics. The models were structured in a three-level hierarchical configuration: samples (first level), drinking water utilities (DWUs, second level) and natural regions, an ecological hierarchical division from the Quebec ecological framework of reference (third level). They considered six independent variables: precipitation, temperature, source type, seasons, treatment type and pH. The average probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the targeted threshold was 18.1%. The probability was influenced by seasons, treatment type, precipitations and temperature. The variance at all levels was significant, showing that the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold is most likely to be similar if located within the same DWU and within the same natural region. However, most of the variance initially attributed to natural regions was explained by treatment types and clarified by spatial aggregation on treatment types. Nevertheless, even after controlling for treatment type, there was still significant regional variability of the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold. Regional variability was particularly important for DWUs using chlorination alone since they lack the appropriate treatment required to reduce the amount of natural organic matter (NOM) in source water prior to disinfection. Results presented herein could be of interest to authorities in identifying regions with specific needs regarding drinking water quality and for epidemiological studies identifying geographical variations in population exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs).

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Walton, Marlei; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; Myers, Jerry; Butler, Doug; Lyengar, Sriram; Fitts, Mary; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Phonotactic Probability Effects in Children Who Stutter

PubMed Central

Anderson, Julie D.; Byrd, Courtney T.

2008-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability, the frequency of different sound segments and segment sequences, on the overall fluency with which words are produced by preschool children who stutter (CWS), as well as to determine whether it has an effect on the type of stuttered disfluency produced. Method A 500+ word language sample was obtained from 19 CWS. Each stuttered word was randomly paired with a fluently produced word that closely matched it in grammatical class, word length, familiarity, word and neighborhood frequency, and neighborhood density. Phonotactic probability values were obtained for the stuttered and fluent words from an online database. Results Phonotactic probability did not have a significant influence on the overall susceptibility of words to stuttering, but it did impact the type of stuttered disfluency produced. In specific, single-syllable word repetitions were significantly lower in phonotactic probability than fluently produced words, as well as part-word repetitions and sound prolongations. Conclusions In general, the differential impact of phonotactic probability on the type of stuttering-like disfluency produced by young CWS provides some support for the notion that different disfluency types may originate in the disruption of different levels of processing. PMID:18658056

Sensitivity to prediction error in reach adaptation

PubMed Central

Haith, Adrian M.; Harran, Michelle D.; Shadmehr, Reza

2012-01-01

It has been proposed that the brain predicts the sensory consequences of a movement and compares it to the actual sensory feedback. When the two differ, an error signal is formed, driving adaptation. How does an error in one trial alter performance in the subsequent trial? Here we show that the sensitivity to error is not constant but declines as a function of error magnitude. That is, one learns relatively less from large errors compared with small errors. We performed an experiment in which humans made reaching movements and randomly experienced an error in both their visual and proprioceptive feedback. Proprioceptive errors were created with force fields, and visual errors were formed by perturbing the cursor trajectory to create a visual error that was smaller, the same size, or larger than the proprioceptive error. We measured single-trial adaptation and calculated sensitivity to error, i.e., the ratio of the trial-to-trial change in motor commands to error size. We found that for both sensory modalities sensitivity decreased with increasing error size. A reanalysis of a number of previously published psychophysical results also exhibited this feature. Finally, we asked how the brain might encode sensitivity to error. We reanalyzed previously published probabilities of cerebellar complex spikes (CSs) and found that this probability declined with increasing error size. From this we posit that a CS may be representative of the sensitivity to error, and not error itself, a hypothesis that may explain conflicting reports about CSs and their relationship to error. PMID:22773782

[Hormone replacement therapy and cognitive function].

PubMed

Huang, Chun-Ping; Hong, Chi-Tzong; Huang, I-Tsan

2006-12-01

Observational studies have suggested that postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy (HRT) may improve cognitive function, but data from randomized clinical trials have been sparse and inconclusive. The effects of HRT on dementia and mild cognitive impairment were assessed in a subgroup of participants in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS) (a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial). There were two study arms, one involved 4,532 postmenopausal women who received continuous combined estrogen (conjugated equine estrogens [CEE] plus medroxyprogesterone acetate [MPA]) or placebo, and the other involved 2,947 hysterectomized women randomized to continuous unopposed CEE or placebo. All participants were aged 65 years or older. CEE with or without MPA did not protect against (but substantially increased the risk of) dementia of any cause or cognitive decline. Incidence of probable dementia in the estrogen-alone trial was statistically similar to that in the estrogen plus progestin trial. When data from both trials were pooled, the overall risk for probable dementia was increased by 76% (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.19 to 2.60; P = 0.005). A second report from WHIMS suggested that cognitive decline in women aged 65 years and older was greater in those receiving hormone therapy than in those receiving placebo (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.97-1.60). The WHIMS results clearly indicate that CEE with or without MPA should not be used to prevent dementia or enhance cognition in women older than 65 years.

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wetterslev, Jørn; Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian

2017-03-06

Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size. The results of the meta-analyses should relate the total number of randomised participants to the estimated required meta-analytic information size accounting for statistical diversity. When the number of participants and the corresponding number of trials in a meta-analysis are insufficient, the use of the traditional 95% confidence interval or the 5% statistical significance threshold will lead to too many false positive conclusions (type I errors) and too many false negative conclusions (type II errors). We developed a methodology for interpreting meta-analysis results, using generally accepted, valid evidence on how to adjust thresholds for significance in randomised clinical trials when the required sample size has not been reached. The Lan-DeMets trial sequential monitoring boundaries in Trial Sequential Analysis offer adjusted confidence intervals and restricted thresholds for statistical significance when the diversity-adjusted required information size and the corresponding number of required trials for the meta-analysis have not been reached. Trial Sequential Analysis provides a frequentistic approach to control both type I and type II errors. We define the required information size and the corresponding number of required trials in a meta-analysis and the diversity (D 2 ) measure of heterogeneity. We explain the reasons for using Trial Sequential Analysis of meta-analysis when the actual information size fails to reach the required information size. We present examples drawn from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in systematic reviews with traditional meta-analyses can be reduced using Trial Sequential Analysis. Several empirical studies have demonstrated that the Trial Sequential Analysis provides better control of type I errors and of type II errors than the traditional naïve meta-analysis. Trial Sequential Analysis represents analysis of meta-analytic data, with transparent assumptions, and better control of type I and type II errors than the traditional meta-analysis using naïve unadjusted confidence intervals.

Automating the application of smart materials for protein crystallization.

PubMed

Khurshid, Sahir; Govada, Lata; El-Sharif, Hazim F; Reddy, Subrayal M; Chayen, Naomi E

2015-03-01

The fabrication and validation of the first semi-liquid nonprotein nucleating agent to be administered automatically to crystallization trials is reported. This research builds upon prior demonstration of the suitability of molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs; known as `smart materials') for inducing protein crystal growth. Modified MIPs of altered texture suitable for high-throughput trials are demonstrated to improve crystal quality and to increase the probability of success when screening for suitable crystallization conditions. The application of these materials is simple, time-efficient and will provide a potent tool for structural biologists embarking on crystallization trials.

Rationale and design of the vitamin D and type 2 diabetes (D2d) study: a diabetes prevention trial

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies suggest that vitamin D may lower the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, data from long-term trials are lacking. The Vitamin D and Type 2 Diabetes (D2d) study is a randomized clinical trial designed to examine whether a causal relationship exists between vitamin D supp...

Cueing spatial attention through timing and probability.

PubMed

Girardi, Giovanna; Antonucci, Gabriella; Nico, Daniele

2013-01-01

Even when focused on an effortful task we retain the ability to detect salient environmental information, and even irrelevant visual stimuli can be automatically detected. However, to which extent unattended information affects attentional control is not fully understood. Here we provide evidences of how the brain spontaneously organizes its cognitive resources by shifting attention between a selective-attending and a stimulus-driven modality within a single task. Using a spatial cueing paradigm we investigated the effect of cue-target asynchronies as a function of their probabilities of occurrence (i.e., relative frequency). Results show that this accessory information modulates attentional shifts. A valid spatial cue improved participants' performance as compared to an invalid one only in trials in which target onset was highly predictable because of its more robust occurrence. Conversely, cuing proved ineffective when spatial cue and target were associated according to a less frequent asynchrony. These patterns of response depended on asynchronies' probability and not on their duration. Our findings clearly demonstrate that through a fine decision-making, performed trial-by-trial, the brain utilizes implicit information to decide whether or not voluntarily shifting spatial attention. As if according to a cost-planning strategy, the cognitive effort of shifting attention depending on the cue is performed only when the expected advantages are higher. In a trade-off competition for cognitive resources, voluntary/automatic attending may thus be a more complex process than expected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian enhancement two-stage design for single-arm phase II clinical trials with binary and time-to-event endpoints.

PubMed

Shi, Haolun; Yin, Guosheng

2018-02-21

Simon's two-stage design is one of the most commonly used methods in phase II clinical trials with binary endpoints. The design tests the null hypothesis that the response rate is less than an uninteresting level, versus the alternative hypothesis that the response rate is greater than a desirable target level. From a Bayesian perspective, we compute the posterior probabilities of the null and alternative hypotheses given that a promising result is declared in Simon's design. Our study reveals that because the frequentist hypothesis testing framework places its focus on the null hypothesis, a potentially efficacious treatment identified by rejecting the null under Simon's design could have only less than 10% posterior probability of attaining the desirable target level. Due to the indifference region between the null and alternative, rejecting the null does not necessarily mean that the drug achieves the desirable response level. To clarify such ambiguity, we propose a Bayesian enhancement two-stage (BET) design, which guarantees a high posterior probability of the response rate reaching the target level, while allowing for early termination and sample size saving in case that the drug's response rate is smaller than the clinically uninteresting level. Moreover, the BET design can be naturally adapted to accommodate survival endpoints. We conduct extensive simulation studies to examine the empirical performance of our design and present two trial examples as applications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Incentive motivation deficits in schizophrenia reflect effort computation impairments during cost-benefit decision-making.

PubMed

Fervaha, Gagan; Graff-Guerrero, Ariel; Zakzanis, Konstantine K; Foussias, George; Agid, Ofer; Remington, Gary

2013-11-01

Motivational impairments are a core feature of schizophrenia and although there are numerous reports studying this feature using clinical rating scales, objective behavioural assessments are lacking. Here, we use a translational paradigm to measure incentive motivation in individuals with schizophrenia. Sixteen stable outpatients with schizophrenia and sixteen matched healthy controls completed a modified version of the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task that accounts for differences in motoric ability. Briefly, subjects were presented with a series of trials where they may choose to expend a greater amount of effort for a larger monetary reward versus less effort for a smaller reward. Additionally, the probability of receiving money for a given trial was varied at 12%, 50% and 88%. Clinical and other reward-related variables were also evaluated. Patients opted to expend greater effort significantly less than controls for trials of high, but uncertain (i.e. 50% and 88% probability) incentive value, which was related to amotivation and neurocognitive deficits. Other abnormalities were also noted but were related to different clinical variables such as impulsivity (low reward and 12% probability). These motivational deficits were not due to group differences in reward learning, reward valuation or hedonic capacity. Our findings offer novel support for incentive motivation deficits in schizophrenia. Clinical amotivation is associated with impairments in the computation of effort during cost-benefit decision-making. This objective translational paradigm may guide future investigations of the neural circuitry underlying these motivational impairments. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy and Acceptability of Glycemic Control of Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists among Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zhixia; Zhang, Yuan; Quan, Xiaochi; Yang, Zhirong; Zeng, Xiantao; Ji, Linong; Sun, Feng; Zhan, Siyan

2016-01-01

To synthesize current evidence of the impact of Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) on hypoglycemia, treatment discontinuation and glycemic level in patients with type 2 diabetes. Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Literature search (Medline, Embase, the Cochrane library), website of clinical trial, bibliographies of published systematic reviews. Randomized controlled trials with available data comparing GLP-1 RAs with placebo or traditional anti-diabetic drugs in patients with type 2 diabetes. Traditional pairwise meta-analyses within DerSimonian-Laird random effects model and network meta-analysis within a Bayesian framework were performed to calculate odds ratios for the incidence of hypoglycemia, treatment discontinuation, HbA1c<7.0% and HbA1c<6.5%. Ranking probabilities for all treatments were estimated to obtain a treatment hierarchy using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) and mean ranks. 78 trials with 13 treatments were included. Overall, all GLP-1 RAs except for albiglutide increased the risk of hypoglycemia when compared to placebo. Reduction in the incidence of hypoglycemia was found for all GLP-1 RAs versus insulin (except for dulaglutide) and sulphonylureas. For the incidence of treatment discontinuation, increase was found for exenatide, liraglutide, lixisenatide and taspoglutide versus placebo, insulin and sitagliptin. For glycemic level, decrease was found for all GLP-1 RAs versus placebo. Dulaglutide, exenatide long-acting release (exe_lar), liraglutide and taspoglutide had significant lowering effect when compared with sitagliptin (HbA1c<7.0%) and insulin (HbA1c<6.5%). Finally, according to SUCRAs, placebo, thiazolidinediones and albiglutide had the best decrease effect on hypoglycemia; sulphanylureas, sitagliptin and insulin decrease the incidence of treatment discontinuation most; exe_lar and dulaglutide had the highest impact on glycemic level among 13 treatments. Among 13 treatments, GLP-1 RAs had a significant reduction with glycemic level but a slight increase effect on hypoglycemia and treatment discontinuation. While albiglutide had the best decrease effect on hypoglycemia and treatment discontinuation among all GLP-1 RAs. However, further evidence is necessary for more conclusive inferences on mechanisms underlying the rise in hypoglycemia.

Effectiveness of acupuncture, special dressings and simple, low-adherence dressings for healing venous leg ulcers in primary healthcare: study protocol for a cluster-randomized open-labeled trial

PubMed Central

Vas, Jorge; Modesto, Manuela; Mendez, Camila; Perea-Milla, Emilio; Aguilar, Inmaculada; Carrasco-Lozano, Jesus Manuel; Faus, Vicente; Martos, Francisco

2008-01-01

Background Venous leg ulcers constitute a chronic recurring complaint that affects 1.0–1.3% of the adult population at some time in life, and which corresponds to approximately 75% of all chronic ulcers of the leg. Multilayer compression bandaging is, at present, the only treatment that has been proved to be effective in treating this type of ulcer. There is no consensus, however, about the dressings that may be applied, beneath the compression, to promote the healing of this type of ulcer, as there does not seem to be any added benefit from using special dressings rather than simple, low-adherence ones. As well as analgesia, acupuncture provokes peripheral vasodilation, in skin and muscles – which has been demonstrated both experimentally and in clinical practice – probably due to the axon reflex, among other mechanisms. The aim of the present study is to measure the effectiveness and cost of compression treatment for venous leg ulcers combined with special dressings, in comparison with low-adherence ones and acupuncture. Methods/design Cluster-randomized open-labeled trial, at 15 primary healthcare clinics in the Sevilla-Sur Healthcare District, with a control group treated with compression bandaging and low-adherence dressings; the experiment will consist, on the one hand, of the compression treatment applied in combination with special dressings (Treatment 1), and on the other, the compression treatment applied in association with low-adherence dressings, together with acupuncture (Treatment 2). Discussion The results will be measured and recorded in terms of the median time elapsed until complete healing of the ulcer, and the rate of complete healing at 3 months after beginning the treatment. An economic analysis will also be made. This study, carried out in the context of real clinical practice, will provide information for decision-taking concerning the effectiveness of special dressings. Moreover, for the first time a high-quality study will evaluate the effectiveness of acupuncture in the process of healing venous leg ulcers. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN26438275. PMID:18547419

Acupuncture for ankle sprain: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Ankle sprain is one of the most frequently encountered musculoskeletal injuries; however, the efficacy of acupuncture in treating ankle sprains remains uncertain. We therefore performed a systematic review to evaluate the evidence regarding acupuncture for ankle sprains. Methods We searched 15 data sources and two trial registries up to February 2012. Randomized controlled trials of acupuncture were included if they involved patients with ankle sprains and reported outcomes of symptom improvement, including pain. A Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool was used. Risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD) was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed based on acupuncture type, grade of sprain, and control type. Sensitivity analyses were also performed with respect to risk of bias, sample size, and outcomes reported. Results Seventeen trials involving 1820 participants were included. Trial quality was generally poor, with just three reporting adequate methods of randomization and only one a method of allocation concealment. Significantly more participants in acupuncture groups reported global symptom improvement compared with no acupuncture groups (RR of symptoms persisting with acupuncture = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42–0.77). However, this is probably an overestimate due to the heterogeneity (I2 = 51%) and high risk of bias of the included studies. Acupuncture as an add-on treatment also improved global symptoms compared with other treatments only, without significant variability (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.51–0.73, I2 = 1%). The benefit of acupuncture remained significant when the analysis was limited to two studies with a low risk of bias. Acupuncture was more effective than various controls in relieving pain, facilitating return to normal activity, and promoting quality of life, but these analyses were based on only a small number of studies. Acupuncture did not appear to be associated with adverse events. Conclusions Given methodological shortcomings and the small number of high-quality primary studies, the available evidence is insufficient to recommend acupuncture as an evidence-based treatment option. This calls for further rigorous investigations. PMID:23496981

Acupuncture for ankle sprain: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Park, Jimin; Hahn, Seokyung; Park, Ji-Yeun; Park, Hi-Joon; Lee, Hyangsook

2013-03-04

Ankle sprain is one of the most frequently encountered musculoskeletal injuries; however, the efficacy of acupuncture in treating ankle sprains remains uncertain. We therefore performed a systematic review to evaluate the evidence regarding acupuncture for ankle sprains. We searched 15 data sources and two trial registries up to February 2012. Randomized controlled trials of acupuncture were included if they involved patients with ankle sprains and reported outcomes of symptom improvement, including pain. A Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool was used. Risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD) was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed based on acupuncture type, grade of sprain, and control type. Sensitivity analyses were also performed with respect to risk of bias, sample size, and outcomes reported. Seventeen trials involving 1820 participants were included. Trial quality was generally poor, with just three reporting adequate methods of randomization and only one a method of allocation concealment. Significantly more participants in acupuncture groups reported global symptom improvement compared with no acupuncture groups (RR of symptoms persisting with acupuncture = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42-0.77). However, this is probably an overestimate due to the heterogeneity (I2 = 51%) and high risk of bias of the included studies. Acupuncture as an add-on treatment also improved global symptoms compared with other treatments only, without significant variability (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.51-0.73, I2 = 1%). The benefit of acupuncture remained significant when the analysis was limited to two studies with a low risk of bias. Acupuncture was more effective than various controls in relieving pain, facilitating return to normal activity, and promoting quality of life, but these analyses were based on only a small number of studies. Acupuncture did not appear to be associated with adverse events. Given methodological shortcomings and the small number of high-quality primary studies, the available evidence is insufficient to recommend acupuncture as an evidence-based treatment option. This calls for further rigorous investigations.

Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial: harmonising optimal strategy for treatment of coronary artery stenosis - coronary intervention with next-generation drug-eluting stent platforms and abbreviated dual antiplatelet therapy (HOST-IDEA) trial.

PubMed

Kim, Chi-Hoon; Han, Jung-Kyu; Yang, Han-Mo; Park, Kyung Woo; Lee, Hae-Young; Kang, Hyun-Jae; Koo, Bon-Kwon; Lee, Namho; Cha, Tae-Joon; Yang, Tae-Hyun; Jeong, Myung-Ho; Yoon, Myeong-Ho; Lee, Seung Uk; Lee, Seung Jin; Kim, Jin Won; Cho, Jin-Man; Han, Kyoo-Rok; Pyun, Wook Bum; Kim, Hyo-Soo

2017-10-11

We have recently seen the introduction of newer generation drug-eluting stents with ultrathin struts that use advanced polymer technologies. However, the efficacy and safety of these newest stents have not yet been fully explored. In addition, there are still controversies over the optimal duration of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after stent implantation, particularly for ultrathin stents with the newest polymer technologies. The HOST-IDEA trial is a randomised, open-label, multicentre, non-inferiority trial and the first study to directly compare two of these ultrathin sirolimus-eluting stents: Orsiro stent with biodegradable polymer, and polymer-free Coroflex ISAR (CX-ISAR) stent. This study has a scheme of 2×2 factorial design according to the stent type and DAPT duration (3 vs 12 months). A total of 2152 patients will be randomised and stratified to demonstrate the non-inferiority of CX-ISAR to Orsiro, or of the abbreviated DAPT duration to the conventional 12 months (both in 1:1 ratio). For the comparison of stent type, the primary endpoint is target lesion failure (TLF), which is a composite of cardiac death, target vessel-related myocardial infarction and clinically driven target lesion revascularisation. For the comparison of DAPT duration, the net adverse clinical event is the coprimary endpoint, which is defined as a composite of TLF, definite/probable stent thrombosis and major bleeding. All the institutions involved in this study are required to have ethical approval prior to patient enrolment. This multicentre study will recruit patients through competitive registration, but institutions that have not yet obtained ethical approvals have made it impossible to enrol patients in a centralised web database. The final results will be presented at relevant international conferences and will be materialised in the form of papers. NCT02601157; Pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A personalized intervention to prevent depression in primary care: cost-effectiveness study nested into a clustered randomized trial.

PubMed

Fernández, Anna; Mendive, Juan M; Conejo-Cerón, Sonia; Moreno-Peral, Patricia; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Martín-Pérez, Carlos; Fernández-Alonso, Carmen; Rodríguez-Bayón, Antonina; Aiarzaguena, Jose Maria; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Serrano-Blanco, Antoni; Ibañez-Casas, Inmaculada; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Emiliano; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Garay, Paola Bully; Ballesta-Rodríguez, María Isabel; LaFuente, Pilar; Del Mar Muñoz-García, María; Mínguez-Gonzalo, Pilar; Araujo, Luz; Palao, Diego; Gómez, María Cruz; Zubiaga, Fernando; Navas-Campaña, Desirée; Aranda-Regules, Jose Manuel; Rodriguez-Morejón, Alberto; de Dios Luna, Juan; Bellón, Juan Ángel

2018-02-23

Depression is viewed as a major and increasing public health issue, as it causes high distress in the people experiencing it and considerable financial costs to society. Efforts are being made to reduce this burden by preventing depression. A critical component of this strategy is the ability to assess the individual level and profile of risk for the development of major depression. This paper presents the cost-effectiveness of a personalized intervention based on the risk of developing depression carried out in primary care, compared with usual care. Cost-effectiveness analyses are nested within a multicentre, clustered, randomized controlled trial of a personalized intervention to prevent depression. The study was carried out in 70 primary care centres from seven cities in Spain. Two general practitioners (GPs) were randomly sampled from those prepared to participate in each centre (i.e. 140 GPs), and 3326 participants consented and were eligible to participate. The intervention included the GP communicating to the patient his/her individual risk for depression and personal risk factors and the construction by both GPs and patients of a psychosocial programme tailored to prevent depression. In addition, GPs carried out measures to activate and empower the patients, who also received a leaflet about preventing depression. GPs were trained in a 10- to 15-h workshop. Costs were measured from a societal and National Health care perspective. Qualityadjustedlife years were assessed using the EuroQOL five dimensions questionnaire. The time horizon was 18 months. With a willingness-to-pay threshold of €10,000 (£8568) the probability of cost-effectiveness oscillated from 83% (societal perspective) to 89% (health perspective). If the threshold was increased to €30,000 (£25,704), the probability of being considered cost-effective was 94% (societal perspective) and 96%, respectively (health perspective). The sensitivity analysis confirmed these results. Compared with usual care, an intervention based on personal predictors of risk of depression implemented by GPs is a cost-effective strategy to prevent depression. This type of personalized intervention in primary care should be further developed and evaluated. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01151982. Registered on June 29, 2010.

[Clinical safety data management in company non-sponsored trials].

PubMed

Saito, Akiko; Sakai, Junko; Kurihara, Masaaki; Kami, Masahiro; Kanda, Yoshinobu; Mori, Shin-ichiro; Takaue, Yoichi; Ohashi, Yasuo

2003-09-01

There is currently no harmonized way in Japan to manage safety data which are obtained during clinical trials supported by Government funds. There are two types of clinical trials, 'sponsored trials(sponsored by industrial companies)' and 'non-sponsored trials(funded by the Government, etc.)'. The Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare has issued many of pharmaceutical laws(GCP, GPMSP etc.) for the regulation of sponsored trials, while none has ever established for non-sponsored trials, thus leaving the most important quality control/assurance unregulated. In this manuscript we discuss that the simple application of pharmaceutical laws to government-sponsored trials can not be a proper answer because of the different nature of the two types of trials.

Methodology Series Module 4: Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Setia, Maninder Singh

2016-01-01

In a clinical trial, study participants are (usually) divided into two groups. One group is then given the intervention and the other group is not given the intervention (or may be given some existing standard of care). We compare the outcomes in these groups and assess the role of intervention. Some of the trial designs are (1) parallel study design, (2) cross-over design, (3) factorial design, and (4) withdrawal group design. The trials can also be classified according to the stage of the trial (Phase I, II, III, and IV) or the nature of the trial (efficacy vs. effectiveness trials, superiority vs. equivalence trials). Randomization is one of the procedures by which we allocate different interventions to the groups. It ensures that all the included participants have a specified probability of being allocated to either of the groups in the intervention study. If participants and the investigator know about the allocation of the intervention, then it is called an "open trial." However, many of the trials are not open - they are blinded. Blinding is useful to minimize bias in clinical trials. The researcher should familiarize themselves with the CONSORT statement and the appropriate Clinical Trials Registry of India.

Methodology Series Module 4: Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Setia, Maninder Singh

2016-01-01

In a clinical trial, study participants are (usually) divided into two groups. One group is then given the intervention and the other group is not given the intervention (or may be given some existing standard of care). We compare the outcomes in these groups and assess the role of intervention. Some of the trial designs are (1) parallel study design, (2) cross-over design, (3) factorial design, and (4) withdrawal group design. The trials can also be classified according to the stage of the trial (Phase I, II, III, and IV) or the nature of the trial (efficacy vs. effectiveness trials, superiority vs. equivalence trials). Randomization is one of the procedures by which we allocate different interventions to the groups. It ensures that all the included participants have a specified probability of being allocated to either of the groups in the intervention study. If participants and the investigator know about the allocation of the intervention, then it is called an “open trial.” However, many of the trials are not open – they are blinded. Blinding is useful to minimize bias in clinical trials. The researcher should familiarize themselves with the CONSORT statement and the appropriate Clinical Trials Registry of India. PMID:27512184

Design Of An Intelligent Robotic System Organizer Via Expert System Tecniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Peter H.; Valavanis, Kimon P.

1989-02-01

Intelligent Robotic Systems are a special type of Intelligent Machines. When modeled based on Vle theory of Intelligent Controls, they are composed of three interactive levels, namely: organization, coordination, and execution, ordered according, to the ,Principle of Increasing, Intelligence with Decreasing Precl.sion. Expert System techniques, are used to design an Intelligent Robotic System Organizer with a dynamic Knowledge Base and an interactive Inference Engine. Task plans are formulated using, either or both of a Probabilistic Approach and Forward Chapling Methodology, depending on pertinent information associated with a spec;fic requested job. The Intelligent Robotic System, Organizer is implemented and tested on a prototype system operating in an uncertain environment. An evaluation of-the performance, of the prototype system is conducted based upon the probability of generating a successful task sequence versus the number of trials taken by the organizer.

Interpretation of health news items reported with or without spin: protocol for a prospective meta-analysis of 16 randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Haneef, Romana; Yavchitz, Amélie; Ravaud, Philippe; Baron, Gabriel; Oransky, Ivan; Schwitzer, Gary; Boutron, Isabelle

2017-11-17

We aim to compare the interpretation of health news items reported with or without spin. 'Spin' is defined as a misrepresentation of study results, regardless of motive (intentionally or unintentionally) that overemphasises the beneficial effects of the intervention and overstates safety compared with that shown by the results. We have planned a series of 16 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to perform a prospective meta-analysis. We will select a sample of health news items reporting the results of four types of study designs, evaluating the effect of pharmacological treatment and containing the highest amount of spin in the headline and text. News items reporting four types of studies will be included: (1) preclinical studies; (2) phase I/II (non-randomised) trials; (3) RCTs and (4) observational studies. We will rewrite the selected news items and remove the spin. The original news and rewritten news will be appraised by four types of populations: (1) French-speaking patients; (2) French-speaking general public; (3) English-speaking patients and (4) English-speaking general public. Each RCT will explore the interpretation of news items reporting one of the four study designs by each type of population and will include a sample size of 300 participants. The primary outcome will be participants' interpretation of the benefit of treatment after reading the news items: (What do you think is the probability that treatment X would be beneficial to patients? (scale, 0 (very unlikely) to 10 (very likely)).This study will evaluate the impact of spin on the interpretation of health news reporting results of studies by patients and the general public. This study has obtained ethics approval from the Institutional Review Board of the Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (INSERM) (registration no: IRB00003888). The description of all the steps and the results of this prospective meta-analysis will be available online and will be disseminated as a published article. On the completion of this study, the results will be sent to all participants. CRD42017058941. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet--an international collaborative clinical trials network.

PubMed

Skyler, Jay S; Greenbaum, Carla J; Lachin, John M; Leschek, Ellen; Rafkin-Mervis, Lisa; Savage, Peter; Spain, Lisa

2008-12-01

Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet is an international consortium of clinical research centers aimed at the prevention or delay of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The fundamental goal of TrialNet is to counter the T1D disease process by immune modulation and/or enhancement of beta cell proliferation and regeneration. To achieve this goal, TrialNet researchers are working to better understand the natural history of the disease, to identify persons at risk, and to clinically evaluate novel therapies that balance potential risks and benefits. The particular focus is on studies of preventive measures. In addition, TrialNet evaluates therapies in individuals with newly diagnosed T1D with preserved beta cell function to help determine the risk/benefit profile and gain an initial assessment of potential efficacy in preservation of beta cell function, so that promising agents can be studied in prevention trials. In addition, TrialNet evaluates methodologies that enhance the conduct of its clinical trials, which includes tests of outcome assessment methodology, the evaluation of surrogate markers, and mechanistic studies laying the foundation for future clinical trials.

Efficacy of Laparoscopic Nissen Fundoplication vs Transoral Incisionless Fundoplication or Proton Pump Inhibitors in Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Richter, Joel E; Kumar, Ambuj; Lipka, Seth; Miladinovic, Branko; Velanovich, Vic

2018-04-01

The effects of transoral incisionless fundoplication (TIF) and laparoscopic Nissen fundoplication (LNF) have been compared with those of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) or a sham procedure in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), but there has been no direct comparison of TIF vs LNF. We performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to compare the relative efficacies of TIF vs LNF in patients with GERD. We searched publication databases and conference abstracts through May 10, 2017 for randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of TIF or LNF with that of a sham procedure or PPIs in patients with GERD. We performed a network meta-analysis using Bayesian methods under random-effects multiple treatment comparisons. We assessed ranking probability by surface under the cumulative ranking curve. Our search identified 7 trials comprising 1128 patients. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve ranking indicated TIF had highest probability of increasing patients' health-related quality of life (0.96), followed by LNF (0.66), a sham procedure (0.35), and PPIs (0.042). LNF had the highest probability of increasing percent time at pH <4 (0.99), followed by PPIs (0.64), TIF (0.32), and the sham procedure (0.05). LNF also had the highest probability of increasing LES pressure (0.78), followed by TIF (0.72) and PPIs (0.01). Patients who underwent the sham procedure had the highest probability for persistent esophagitis (0.74), followed by those receiving TIF (0.69), LNF (0.38), and PPIs (0.19). Meta-regression showed a shorter follow-up time as a significant confounder for the outcome of health-related quality of life in studies of TIF. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis of trials of patients with GERD, we found LNF to have the greatest ability to improve physiologic parameters of GERD, including increased LES pressure and decreased percent time pH <4. Although TIF produced the largest increase in health-related quality of life, this could be due to the shorter follow-up time of patients treated with TIF vs LNF or PPIs. TIF is a minimally invasive endoscopic procedure, yet based on evaluation of benefits vs risks, we do not recommend it as a long-term alternative to PPI or LNF treatment of GERD. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed Central

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

Objective: This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Methods: Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Results: Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks. PMID:26635652

Flight initiation by Ferruginous Hawks depends on disturbance type, experience, and the anthropogenic landscape

PubMed Central

Wellicome, Troy I.; Bayne, Erin M.

2017-01-01

The expansion of humans and their related infrastructure is increasing the likelihood that wildlife will interact with humans. When disturbed by humans, animals often change their behaviour, which can result in time and energetic costs to that animal. An animal's decision to change behaviour is likely related to the type of disturbance, the individual's past experience with disturbance, and the landscape in which the disturbance occurs. In southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, we quantified probability of flight initiation from the nest by Ferruginous Hawks (Buteo regalis) during approaches to nests by investigators. We tested if probability of flight was related to different disturbance types, previous experience, and the anthropogenic landscape in which individual Ferruginous Hawks nested. Probability of flight was related to the type of approach by the investigator, the number of previous visits by investigators, and the vehicular traffic around the nest. Approaches by humans on foot resulted in a greater probability of flight than those in a vehicle. Approaches in a vehicle via low traffic volume access roads were related to increased probability of flight relative to other road types. The number of previous investigator approaches to the nest increased the probability of flight. Overall, we found support that Ferruginous Hawks show habituation to vehicles and the positive reinforcement hypotheses as probability of flight was negatively related to an index of traffic activity near the nest. Our work emphasizes that complex, dynamic processes drive the decision to initiate flight from the nest, and contributes to the growing body of work explaining how responses to humans vary within species. PMID:28542334

Flight initiation by Ferruginous Hawks depends on disturbance type, experience, and the anthropogenic landscape.

PubMed

Nordell, Cameron J; Wellicome, Troy I; Bayne, Erin M

2017-01-01

The expansion of humans and their related infrastructure is increasing the likelihood that wildlife will interact with humans. When disturbed by humans, animals often change their behaviour, which can result in time and energetic costs to that animal. An animal's decision to change behaviour is likely related to the type of disturbance, the individual's past experience with disturbance, and the landscape in which the disturbance occurs. In southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, we quantified probability of flight initiation from the nest by Ferruginous Hawks (Buteo regalis) during approaches to nests by investigators. We tested if probability of flight was related to different disturbance types, previous experience, and the anthropogenic landscape in which individual Ferruginous Hawks nested. Probability of flight was related to the type of approach by the investigator, the number of previous visits by investigators, and the vehicular traffic around the nest. Approaches by humans on foot resulted in a greater probability of flight than those in a vehicle. Approaches in a vehicle via low traffic volume access roads were related to increased probability of flight relative to other road types. The number of previous investigator approaches to the nest increased the probability of flight. Overall, we found support that Ferruginous Hawks show habituation to vehicles and the positive reinforcement hypotheses as probability of flight was negatively related to an index of traffic activity near the nest. Our work emphasizes that complex, dynamic processes drive the decision to initiate flight from the nest, and contributes to the growing body of work explaining how responses to humans vary within species.

Inverse sequential detection of parameter changes in developing time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1992-01-01

Progressive values of two probabilities are obtained for parameter estimates derived from an existing set of values and from the same set enlarged by one or more new values, respectively. One probability is that of erroneously preferring the second of these estimates for the existing data ('type 1 error'), while the second probability is that of erroneously accepting their estimates for the enlarged test ('type 2 error'). A more stable combined 'no change' probability which always falls between 0.5 and 0 is derived from the (logarithmic) width of the uncertainty region of an equivalent 'inverted' sequential probability ratio test (SPRT, Wald 1945) in which the error probabilities are calculated rather than prescribed. A parameter change is indicated when the compound probability undergoes a progressive decrease. The test is explicitly formulated and exemplified for Gaussian samples.

Obsessive-compulsive tendencies are associated with a focused information processing strategy.

PubMed

Soref, Assaf; Dar, Reuven; Argov, Galit; Meiran, Nachshon

2008-12-01

The study examined the hypothesis that obsessive-compulsive (OC) tendencies are related to a reliance on focused and serial rather than a parallel, speed-oriented information processing style. Ten students with high OC tendencies and 10 students with low OC tendencies performed the flanker task, in which they were required to quickly classify a briefly presented target letter (S or H) that was flanked by compatible (e.g., SSSSS) or incompatible (e.g., HHSHH) noise letters. Participants received 4 blocks of 100 trials each, two with 50% compatible trials and two with 80% compatible trials and were informed of the probability of compatible trials before the beginning of each block. As predicted, high OC participants, as compared to low OC participants, had slower overall reaction time (RT) and lower tendency for parallel processing (defined as incompatible trials RT minus compatible trials RT). Low, more than high OC participants tended to adjust their focused/parallel processing including a shift towards parallel processing in blocks with 80% compatible trials and in trials following compatible trials. Implications of these results to the cognitive theory and therapy of OCD are discussed.

Statistical methods for incomplete data: Some results on model misspecification.

PubMed

McIsaac, Michael; Cook, R J

2017-02-01

Inverse probability weighted estimating equations and multiple imputation are two of the most studied frameworks for dealing with incomplete data in clinical and epidemiological research. We examine the limiting behaviour of estimators arising from inverse probability weighted estimating equations, augmented inverse probability weighted estimating equations and multiple imputation when the requisite auxiliary models are misspecified. We compute limiting values for settings involving binary responses and covariates and illustrate the effects of model misspecification using simulations based on data from a breast cancer clinical trial. We demonstrate that, even when both auxiliary models are misspecified, the asymptotic biases of double-robust augmented inverse probability weighted estimators are often smaller than the asymptotic biases of estimators arising from complete-case analyses, inverse probability weighting or multiple imputation. We further demonstrate that use of inverse probability weighting or multiple imputation with slightly misspecified auxiliary models can actually result in greater asymptotic bias than the use of naïve, complete case analyses. These asymptotic results are shown to be consistent with empirical results from simulation studies.

Neurofeedback for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: Meta-Analysis of Clinical and Neuropsychological Outcomes From Randomized Controlled Trials.

PubMed

Cortese, Samuele; Ferrin, Maite; Brandeis, Daniel; Holtmann, Martin; Aggensteiner, Pascal; Daley, David; Santosh, Paramala; Simonoff, Emily; Stevenson, Jim; Stringaris, Argyris; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S

2016-06-01

We performed meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials to examine the effects of neurofeedback on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and neuropsychological deficits in children and adolescents with ADHD. We searched PubMed, Ovid, Web of Science, ERIC, and CINAHAL through August 30, 2015. Random-effects models were employed. Studies were evaluated with the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. We included 13 trials (520 participants with ADHD). Significant effects were found on ADHD symptoms rated by assessors most proximal to the treatment setting, that is, the least blinded outcome measure (standardized mean difference [SMD]: ADHD total symptoms = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.11-0.59; inattention = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.09-0.63; hyperactivity/impulsivity = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.08-0.43). Effects were not significant when probably blinded ratings were the outcome or in trials with active/sham controls. Results were similar when only frequency band training trials, the most common neurofeedback approach, were analyzed separately. Effects on laboratory measures of inhibition (SMD = 0.30, 95% CI = -0.10 to 0.70) and attention (SMD = 0.13, 95% CI = -0.09 to 0.36) were not significant. Only 4 studies directly assessed whether learning occurred after neurofeedback training. The risk of bias was unclear for many Cochrane Risk of Bias domains in most studies. Evidence from well-controlled trials with probably blinded outcomes currently fails to support neurofeedback as an effective treatment for ADHD. Future efforts should focus on implementing standard neurofeedback protocols, ensuring learning, and optimizing clinically relevant transfer. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Results of the ANSWER Trial Using the PulseRider for the Treatment of Broad-Necked, Bifurcation Aneurysms.

PubMed

Spiotta, Alejandro M; Derdeyn, Colin P; Tateshima, Satoshi; Mocco, Jay; Crowley, R Webster; Liu, Kenneth C; Jensen, Lee; Ebersole, Koji; Reeves, Alan; Lopes, Demetrius K; Hanel, Ricardo A; Sauvageau, Eric; Duckwiler, Gary; Siddiqui, Adnan; Levy, Elad; Puri, Ajit; Pride, Lee; Novakovic, Roberta; Chaudry, M Imran; Turner, Raymond D; Turk, Aquilla S

2017-07-01

The safety and probable benefit of the PulseRider (Pulsar Vascular, Los Gatos, California) for the treatment of broad-necked, bifurcation aneurysms was studied in the context of the prospective, nonrandomized, single arm clinical trial-the Adjunctive Neurovascular Support of Wide-neck aneurysm Embolization and Reconstruction (ANSWER) Trial. To present the results of the United States cases employing the PulseRider device as part of the ANSWER clinical trial. Aneurysms treated with the PulseRider device among sites enrolling in the ANSWER trial were prospectively studied and the results are summarized. Aneurysms arising at either the carotid terminus or basilar apex that were relatively broad necked were considered candidates for inclusion into the ANSWER study. Thirty-four patients were enrolled (29 female and 5 male) with a mean age of 60.9 years (27 basilar apex and 7 carotid terminus). Mean aneurysm height ranged from 2.4 to 15.9 mm with a mean neck size of 5.2 mm (range 2.3-11.6 mm). In all patients, the device was delivered and deployed. Immediate Raymond I or II occlusion was achieved in 82.4% and progressed to 87.9% at 6-month follow-up. A modified Rankin Score of 2 or less was seen in 94% of patients at 6 months. The results from the ANSWER trial demonstrate that the PulseRider device is safe and offers probable benefit as for the treatment of bifurcation aneurysms arising at the basilar apex or carotid terminus. As such, it represents a useful addition to the armamentarium of the neuroendovascular specialist. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Model-Based Approach to Predict Adherence to Protocol During Antiobesity Trials.

PubMed

Sharma, Vishnu D; Combes, François P; Vakilynejad, Majid; Lahu, Gezim; Lesko, Lawrence J; Trame, Mirjam N

2018-02-01

Development of antiobesity drugs is continuously challenged by high dropout rates during clinical trials. The objective was to develop a population pharmacodynamic model that describes the temporal changes in body weight, considering disease progression, lifestyle intervention, and drug effects. Markov modeling (MM) was applied for quantification and characterization of responder and nonresponder as key drivers of dropout rates, to ultimately support the clinical trial simulations and the outcome in terms of trial adherence. Subjects (n = 4591) from 6 Contrave ® trials were included in this analysis. An indirect-response model developed by van Wart et al was used as a starting point. Inclusion of drug effect was dose driven using a population dose- and time-dependent pharmacodynamic (DTPD) model. Additionally, a population-pharmacokinetic parameter- and data (PPPD)-driven model was developed using the final DTPD model structure and final parameter estimates from a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model based on available Contrave ® pharmacokinetic concentrations. Last, MM was developed to predict transition rate probabilities among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states driven by the pharmacodynamic effect resulting from the DTPD or PPPD model. Covariates included in the models and parameters were diabetes mellitus and race. The linked DTPD-MM and PPPD-MM was able to predict transition rates among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states well. The analysis concluded that body-weight change is an important factor influencing dropout rates, and the MM depicted that overall a DTPD model-driven approach provides a reasonable prediction of clinical trial outcome probabilities similar to a pharmacokinetic-driven approach. © 2017, The Authors. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Improving the efficiency of configurational-bias Monte Carlo: A density-guided method for generating bending angle trials for linear and branched molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sepehri, Aliasghar; Loeffler, Troy D.; Chen, Bin, E-mail: binchen@lsu.edu

2014-08-21

A new method has been developed to generate bending angle trials to improve the acceptance rate and the speed of configurational-bias Monte Carlo. Whereas traditionally the trial geometries are generated from a uniform distribution, in this method we attempt to use the exact probability density function so that each geometry generated is likely to be accepted. In actual practice, due to the complexity of this probability density function, a numerical representation of this distribution function would be required. This numerical table can be generated a priori from the distribution function. This method has been tested on a united-atom model ofmore » alkanes including propane, 2-methylpropane, and 2,2-dimethylpropane, that are good representatives of both linear and branched molecules. It has been shown from these test cases that reasonable approximations can be made especially for the highly branched molecules to reduce drastically the dimensionality and correspondingly the amount of the tabulated data that is needed to be stored. Despite these approximations, the dependencies between the various geometrical variables can be still well considered, as evident from a nearly perfect acceptance rate achieved. For all cases, the bending angles were shown to be sampled correctly by this method with an acceptance rate of at least 96% for 2,2-dimethylpropane to more than 99% for propane. Since only one trial is required to be generated for each bending angle (instead of thousands of trials required by the conventional algorithm), this method can dramatically reduce the simulation time. The profiling results of our Monte Carlo simulation code show that trial generation, which used to be the most time consuming process, is no longer the time dominating component of the simulation.« less

Statistical inference on censored data for targeted clinical trials under enrichment design.

PubMed

Chen, Chen-Fang; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Jen-Pei

2013-01-01

For the traditional clinical trials, inclusion and exclusion criteria are usually based on some clinical endpoints; the genetic or genomic variability of the trial participants are not totally utilized in the criteria. After completion of the human genome project, the disease targets at the molecular level can be identified and can be utilized for the treatment of diseases. However, the accuracy of diagnostic devices for identification of such molecular targets is usually not perfect. Some of the patients enrolled in targeted clinical trials with a positive result for the molecular target might not have the specific molecular targets. As a result, the treatment effect may be underestimated in the patient population truly with the molecular target. To resolve this issue, under the exponential distribution, we develop inferential procedures for the treatment effects of the targeted drug based on the censored endpoints in the patients truly with the molecular targets. Under an enrichment design, we propose using the expectation-maximization algorithm in conjunction with the bootstrap technique to incorporate the inaccuracy of the diagnostic device for detection of the molecular targets on the inference of the treatment effects. A simulation study was conducted to empirically investigate the performance of the proposed methods. Simulation results demonstrate that under the exponential distribution, the proposed estimator is nearly unbiased with adequate precision, and the confidence interval can provide adequate coverage probability. In addition, the proposed testing procedure can adequately control the size with sufficient power. On the other hand, when the proportional hazard assumption is violated, additional simulation studies show that the type I error rate is not controlled at the nominal level and is an increasing function of the positive predictive value. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of changes in fat availability on exercise capacity in McArdle disease.

PubMed

Andersen, Susanne T; Jeppesen, Tina D; Taivassalo, Tanja; Sveen, Marie-Louise; Heinicke, Katja; Haller, Ronald G; Vissing, John

2009-06-01

The major fuel for exercising muscle at low exercise intensities is fat. To investigate the role of fat metabolism in McArdle disease (also known as glycogen storage disease type V), an inborn error of muscle glycogenolysis, by manipulating free fatty acid availability for oxidation during exercise. Randomized, placebo-controlled, crossover trial. Hospitalized care. Ten patients (8 men and 2 women) with McArdle disease. Patients cycled at a constant workload corresponding to 70% of their maximum oxygen consumption. In random order and on separate days, patients received nicotinic acid (a known blocker of lipolysis) to decrease the availability of free fatty acids or 20% Intralipid infusion to increase free fatty acid availability during exercise. Results were compared with placebo (isotonic sodium chloride solution infusion) and glucose infusion trials. Exercise tolerance was assessed by heart rate response to exercise during different infusions. Free fatty acid levels more than tripled by Intralipid infusion and were halved by nicotinic acid administration. Heart rate was significantly higher during exercise in the Intralipid infusion and nicotinic acid trials compared with the placebo and glucose infusion trials, an effect that was observed before and after the patients had experienced the second wind phenomenon. Lipids are an important source of fuel for exercising muscle in McArdle disease, but maximal rates of fat oxidation seem limited and cannot be increased above physiologically normal rates during exercise. This limitation is probably caused by a metabolic bottleneck in the tricarboxylic acid cycle due to impaired glycolytic flux in McArdle disease. Therapies aimed at enhancing fat use in McArdle disease should be combined with interventions targeting expansion of the tricarboxylic acid cycle.

Dronedarone: an amiodarone analogue.

PubMed

Doggrell, Sheila A; Hancox, Jules C

2004-04-01

Of the antiarrhythmic drugs in current use, amiodarone is one of the most effective and is associated with a comparatively low risk of drug-induced pro-arrhythmia, probably due to its multiple pharmacological actions on cardiac ion channels and receptors. However, amiodarone is associated with significant extra-cardiac side effects and this has driven development of amiodarone analogues. These analogues include short acting analogues (e.g., AT-2001) with similar acute effects to amiodarone, the thyroid receptor antagonist KB-130015 and dronedarone. Dronedarone, (SR-33589; Sanofi-Synthelabo), is a non-iodinated amiodarone derivative that inhibits Na +, K + and Ca 2+ currents. It is a potent inhibitor of the acetylcholine-activated K + current from atrial and sinoatrial nodal tissue, and inhibits the rapid delayed rectifier more potently than slow and inward rectifier K + currents and inhibits L-type calcium current. Dronedarone is an antagonist at alpha- and beta-adrenoceptors and unlike amiodarone, has little effect at thyroid receptors. Dronedarone is more potent than amiodarone in inhibiting arrhythmias and death in animal models of ischaemia- and reperfusion-induced arrhythmias. In the Dronedarone Atrial Fibrillation Study After Electrical Cardioversion (DAFNE) clinical trial, dronedarone 800 mg/day appeared to be effective and safe for the prevention of atrial fibrillation relapses after cardioversion. The Antiarrhythmic Trial with Dronedarone in Moderate-to-Severe Congestive Heart Failure Evaluating Morbidity Decrease (ANDROMEDA) trial was stopped due to a potential increased risk of death in the dronedarone group. Trials of dronedarone in the maintenance of sinus rhythm in patients with atrial fibrillation and a safety and tolerability study in patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator are ongoing. Further experimental and clinical studies are required before we have a definitive answer to whether dronedarone has advantages over amiodarone and other amiodarone analogues.

Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time

PubMed Central

Sargent, Daniel J.; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2011-01-01

SUMMARY Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download. PMID:21838732

Behavioral aspects of clinical trials. An integrated framework from behavior theory.

PubMed

Morrow, G R; Hickok, J T; Burish, T G

1994-11-01

A less-than-optimal proportion of patients with cancer are entered into National Cancer Institute-sponsored clinical trials. This article reviews the literature on accrual in oncology clinical trials to characterize the extent of the problem, identify reasons for low accrual, and suggest ways to promote accrual. Four well known theories of health behavior (the Health Belief Model, Subjective Expected Utility Theory, Protection Motivation Theory, and the Theory of Reasoned Action) point to central concepts involved in understanding patient health-related behavior: (1) the probability that an unwelcomed health event will happen to a patient, (2) the severity of that event if it does occur, (3) the effectiveness of a particular behavior (such as taking part in a clinical trial) to modify the severity, and (4) the cost of adopting that behavior. These concepts form a framework for integrating the available information about accrual to clinical oncology trials. Patient and physician factors previously related to clinical trials suggest specific recommendations for increasing accrual to clinical oncology trials.

Molecular analyses of the principal components of response strength.

PubMed Central

Killeen, Peter R; Hall, Scott S; Reilly, Mark P; Kettle, Lauren C

2002-01-01

Killeen and Hall (2001) showed that a common factor called strength underlies the key dependent variables of response probability, latency, and rate, and that overall response rate is a good predictor of strength. In a search for the mechanisms that underlie those correlations, this article shows that (a) the probability of responding on a trial is a two-state Markov process; (b) latency and rate of responding can be described in terms of the probability and period of stochastic machines called clocked Bernoulli modules, and (c) one such machine, the refractory Poisson process, provides a functional relation between the probability of observing a response during any epoch and the rate of responding. This relation is one of proportionality at low rates and curvilinearity at higher rates. PMID:12216975

Cost effectiveness of drug-eluting stents as compared with bare metal stents in patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Wisløff, Torbjørn; Atar, Dan; Sønbø Kristiansen, Ivar

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the incremental cost effectiveness of replacing bare metal stents (BMS) by drug-eluting stents (DES) when using trial data and registry data. We developed a Markov model (model of cost effectiveness of coronary artery disease) in which 60-year-old patients started by undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for acute or subacute coronary artery disease. The patients are followed until death or 100 years of age. Data on the occurrence of events (revascularization, acute myocardial infarction, and death) were based on Scandinavian registry data. Separate analyses were conducted with data on effectiveness based on randomized controlled trials and patient registries. On using trial data, it was found that sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) yield 0.003 greater life expectancy and $3300 lower costs than do BMS (dominant strategy). Paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES) yield 0.148 more life years than do SES at additional lifetime costs of $2800 ($21,400 per life year gained). On using registry data, the cost per life year gained was found to be $4900 when replacing BMS with DES. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses, on the other hand, indicate that PES only has a 50%-75% probability of being cost effective, regardless of the type of effectiveness data. DESs are cost effective with current willingness to pay for life year gains. Whether PES or SES is the most effective DES remains uncertain.

Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

López Puga, Jorge

2014-01-01

The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

Validation of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score in the TrialNet Natural History Study.

PubMed

Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Mahon, Jeffrey; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Beam, Craig A; Boulware, David C; Greenbaum, Carla J; Rafkin, Lisa E; Cowie, Catherine; Cuthbertson, David; Palmer, Jerry P

2011-08-01

We assessed the accuracy of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS), developed from the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1), in the TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS). Prediction accuracy of the DPTRS was assessed with receiver-operating characteristic curve areas. The type 1 diabetes cumulative incidence within the DPTRS intervals was compared between the TNNHS and DPT-1 cohorts. Receiver-operating characteristic curve areas for the DPTRS were substantial in the TNNHS (P < 0.001 at both 2 and 3 years). The type 1 diabetes cumulative incidence did not differ significantly between the TNNHS and DPT-1 cohorts within DPTRS intervals. In the TNNHS, 2-year and 3-year risks were low for DPTRS intervals <6.50 (<0.10 and <0.20, respectively). Thresholds ≥7.50 were indicative of high risk in both cohorts (2-year risks: 0.49 in the TNNHS and 0.51 in DPT-1). The DPTRS is an accurate and robust predictor of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive populations.

Omega-3 Fatty acids: anti-arrhythmic, pro-arrhythmic, or both?

PubMed

von Schacky, C

2012-01-01

This review focuses on developments after 2008, when the topic was last reviewed by the author. Pertinent publications were found by medline searches and in the author's personal data base. Prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF) was investigated in a number of trials, sparked by one positive report on the effects of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), considerations of upstream therapy, data from electrophysiologic laboratories and animal experiments. If EPA + DHA prevent postoperative AF, the effect is probably smaller than initially expected. The same is probably true for maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion and for new-onset AF. Larger trials are currently ongoing. Prevention of ventricular arrhythmias was studied in carriers of an implanted cardioverter-defibrillator, with no clear results. This might have been due to a broad definition of the primary endpoint, including any ventricular arrhythmia and any action of the device. Epidemiologic studies support the contention that high levels of EPA + DHA prevent sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, since SCD is a rare occurrence, it is difficult to conduct an adequately powered trial. In patients with congestive heart failure, EPA + DHA reduced total mortality and rehospitalizations, but not SCD or presumed arrhythmic death. Of three trials in patients after a myocardial infarction, two were inadequately powered, and in one, the dose might have been too low. Taken together, while epidemiologic studies support an inverse relation between EPA + DHA and occurrence of SCD or arrhythmic death, demonstrating this effect in intervention trials remained elusive so far. A pro-arrhythmic effect of EPA + DHA has not been seen in intervention studies, and results of epidemiologic and animal studies also rather argue against such an effect. A different, and probably more productive, perspective is provided by a standardized analytical assessment of a person's status in EPA + DHA by use of the omega-3 index, EPA + DHA in red cell fatty acids. In populations with a high omega-3 index, SCD is rare. Intervention trials can become more effective by including a low omega-3 index into the inclusion criteria, thus creating a study population more likely to demonstrate an effect of EPA + DHA. This is especially relevant in case of rare endpoints, like new-onset AF or SCD.

Omega-3 Fatty Acids: Anti-Arrhythmic, Pro-Arrhythmic, or Both?

PubMed Central

von Schacky, C.

2012-01-01

This review focuses on developments after 2008, when the topic was last reviewed by the author. Pertinent publications were found by medline searches and in the author’s personal data base. Prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF) was investigated in a number of trials, sparked by one positive report on the effects of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), considerations of upstream therapy, data from electrophysiologic laboratories and animal experiments. If EPA + DHA prevent postoperative AF, the effect is probably smaller than initially expected. The same is probably true for maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion and for new-onset AF. Larger trials are currently ongoing. Prevention of ventricular arrhythmias was studied in carriers of an implanted cardioverter-defibrillator, with no clear results. This might have been due to a broad definition of the primary endpoint, including any ventricular arrhythmia and any action of the device. Epidemiologic studies support the contention that high levels of EPA + DHA prevent sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, since SCD is a rare occurrence, it is difficult to conduct an adequately powered trial. In patients with congestive heart failure, EPA + DHA reduced total mortality and rehospitalizations, but not SCD or presumed arrhythmic death. Of three trials in patients after a myocardial infarction, two were inadequately powered, and in one, the dose might have been too low. Taken together, while epidemiologic studies support an inverse relation between EPA + DHA and occurrence of SCD or arrhythmic death, demonstrating this effect in intervention trials remained elusive so far. A pro-arrhythmic effect of EPA + DHA has not been seen in intervention studies, and results of epidemiologic and animal studies also rather argue against such an effect. A different, and probably more productive, perspective is provided by a standardized analytical assessment of a person’s status in EPA + DHA by use of the omega-3 index, EPA + DHA in red cell fatty acids. In populations with a high omega-3 index, SCD is rare. Intervention trials can become more effective by including a low omega-3 index into the inclusion criteria, thus creating a study population more likely to demonstrate an effect of EPA + DHA. This is especially relevant in case of rare endpoints, like new-onset AF or SCD. PMID:22529815

Valx: A system for extracting and structuring numeric lab test comparison statements from text

PubMed Central

Hao, Tianyong; Liu, Hongfang; Weng, Chunhua

2017-01-01

Objectives To develop an automated method for extracting and structuring numeric lab test comparison statements from text and evaluate the method using clinical trial eligibility criteria text. Methods Leveraging semantic knowledge from the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) and domain knowledge acquired from the Internet, Valx takes 7 steps to extract and normalize numeric lab test expressions: 1) text preprocessing, 2) numeric, unit, and comparison operator extraction, 3) variable identification using hybrid knowledge, 4) variable - numeric association, 5) context-based association filtering, 6) measurement unit normalization, and 7) heuristic rule-based comparison statements verification. Our reference standard was the consensus-based annotation among three raters for all comparison statements for two variables, i.e., HbA1c and glucose, identified from all of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes trials in ClinicalTrials.gov. Results The precision, recall, and F-measure for structuring HbA1c comparison statements were 99.6%, 98.1%, 98.8% for Type 1 diabetes trials, and 98.8%, 96.9%, 97.8% for Type 2 Diabetes trials, respectively. The precision, recall, and F-measure for structuring glucose comparison statements were 97.3%, 94.8%, 96.1% for Type 1 diabetes trials, and 92.3%, 92.3%, 92.3% for Type 2 diabetes trials, respectively. Conclusions Valx is effective at extracting and structuring free-text lab test comparison statements in clinical trial summaries. Future studies are warranted to test its generalizability beyond eligibility criteria text. The open-source Valx enables its further evaluation and continued improvement among the collaborative scientific community. PMID:26940748

Valx: A System for Extracting and Structuring Numeric Lab Test Comparison Statements from Text.

PubMed

Hao, Tianyong; Liu, Hongfang; Weng, Chunhua

2016-05-17

To develop an automated method for extracting and structuring numeric lab test comparison statements from text and evaluate the method using clinical trial eligibility criteria text. Leveraging semantic knowledge from the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) and domain knowledge acquired from the Internet, Valx takes seven steps to extract and normalize numeric lab test expressions: 1) text preprocessing, 2) numeric, unit, and comparison operator extraction, 3) variable identification using hybrid knowledge, 4) variable - numeric association, 5) context-based association filtering, 6) measurement unit normalization, and 7) heuristic rule-based comparison statements verification. Our reference standard was the consensus-based annotation among three raters for all comparison statements for two variables, i.e., HbA1c and glucose, identified from all of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes trials in ClinicalTrials.gov. The precision, recall, and F-measure for structuring HbA1c comparison statements were 99.6%, 98.1%, 98.8% for Type 1 diabetes trials, and 98.8%, 96.9%, 97.8% for Type 2 diabetes trials, respectively. The precision, recall, and F-measure for structuring glucose comparison statements were 97.3%, 94.8%, 96.1% for Type 1 diabetes trials, and 92.3%, 92.3%, 92.3% for Type 2 diabetes trials, respectively. Valx is effective at extracting and structuring free-text lab test comparison statements in clinical trial summaries. Future studies are warranted to test its generalizability beyond eligibility criteria text. The open-source Valx enables its further evaluation and continued improvement among the collaborative scientific community.

Strength in Numbers: Opportunities for Enhancing the Development of Effective Treatments for Type 1 Diabetes-The TrialNet Experience.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Carla J; Speake, Cate; Krischer, Jeffrey; Buckner, Jane; Gottlieb, Peter A; Schatz, Desmond A; Herold, Kevan C; Atkinson, Mark A

2018-07-01

The early to mid-1980s were an inflection point in the history of type 1 diabetes research. Two landmark events occurred: the initiation of immune-based interventions seeking to prevent type 1 diabetes and the presentation of an innovative model describing the disorder's natural history. Both formed the basis for hundreds of subsequent studies designed to achieve a dramatic therapeutic goal-a means to prevent and/or reverse type 1 diabetes. However, the need to screen large numbers of individuals and prospectively monitor them using immunologic and metabolic tests for extended periods of time suggested such efforts would require a large collaborative network. Hence, the National Institutes of Health formed the landmark Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) in the mid-1990s, an effort that led to Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet. TrialNet studies have helped identify novel biomarkers; delineate type 1 diabetes progression, resulting in identification of highly predictable stages defined by the accumulation of autoantibodies (stage 1), dysglycemia (stage 2), and disease meeting clinical criteria for diagnosis (stage 3); and oversee numerous clinical trials aimed at preventing disease progression. Such efforts pave the way for stage-specific intervention trials with improved hope that a means to effectively disrupt the disorder's development will be identified. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.

Economic Evaluation of a General Hospital Unit for Older People with Delirium and Dementia (TEAM Randomised Controlled Trial)

PubMed Central

Tanajewski, Lukasz; Franklin, Matthew; Gkountouras, Georgios; Berdunov, Vladislav; Harwood, Rowan H.; Goldberg, Sarah E.; Bradshaw, Lucy E.; Gladman, John R. F.; Elliott, Rachel A.

2015-01-01

Background One in three hospital acute medical admissions is of an older person with cognitive impairment. Their outcomes are poor and the quality of their care in hospital has been criticised. A specialist unit to care for older people with delirium and dementia (the Medical and Mental Health Unit, MMHU) was developed and then tested in a randomised controlled trial where it delivered significantly higher quality of, and satisfaction with, care, but no significant benefits in terms of health status outcomes at three months. Objective To examine the cost-effectiveness of the MMHU for older people with delirium and dementia in general hospitals, compared with standard care. Methods Six hundred participants aged over 65 admitted for acute medical care, identified on admission as cognitively impaired, were randomised to the MMHU or to standard care on acute geriatric or general medical wards. Cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, at 3-month follow-up, was assessed in trial-based economic evaluation (599/600 participants, intervention: 309). Multiple imputation and complete-case sample analyses were employed to deal with missing QALY data (55%). Results The total adjusted health and social care costs, including direct costs of the intervention, at 3 months was £7714 and £7862 for MMHU and standard care groups, respectively (difference -£149 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -298, 4)). The difference in QALYs gained was 0.001 (95% CI: -0.006, 0.008). The probability that the intervention was dominant was 58%, and the probability that it was cost-saving with QALY loss was 39%. At £20,000/QALY threshold, the probability of cost-effectiveness was 94%, falling to 59% when cost-saving QALY loss cases were excluded. Conclusions The MMHU was strongly cost-effective using usual criteria, although considerably less so when the less acceptable situation with QALY loss and cost savings were excluded. Nevertheless, this model of care is worthy of further evaluation. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01136148 PMID:26684872

Measuring the subjective value of risky and ambiguous options using experimental economics and functional MRI methods.

PubMed

Levy, Ifat; Rosenberg Belmaker, Lior; Manson, Kirk; Tymula, Agnieszka; Glimcher, Paul W

2012-09-19

Most of the choices we make have uncertain consequences. In some cases the probabilities for different possible outcomes are precisely known, a condition termed "risky". In other cases when probabilities cannot be estimated, this is a condition described as "ambiguous". While most people are averse to both risk and ambiguity(1,2), the degree of those aversions vary substantially across individuals, such that the subjective value of the same risky or ambiguous option can be very different for different individuals. We combine functional MRI (fMRI) with an experimental economics-based method(3 )to assess the neural representation of the subjective values of risky and ambiguous options(4). This technique can be now used to study these neural representations in different populations, such as different age groups and different patient populations. In our experiment, subjects make consequential choices between two alternatives while their neural activation is tracked using fMRI. On each trial subjects choose between lotteries that vary in their monetary amount and in either the probability of winning that amount or the ambiguity level associated with winning. Our parametric design allows us to use each individual's choice behavior to estimate their attitudes towards risk and ambiguity, and thus to estimate the subjective values that each option held for them. Another important feature of the design is that the outcome of the chosen lottery is not revealed during the experiment, so that no learning can take place, and thus the ambiguous options remain ambiguous and risk attitudes are stable. Instead, at the end of the scanning session one or few trials are randomly selected and played for real money. Since subjects do not know beforehand which trials will be selected, they must treat each and every trial as if it and it alone was the one trial on which they will be paid. This design ensures that we can estimate the true subjective value of each option to each subject. We then look for areas in the brain whose activation is correlated with the subjective value of risky options and for areas whose activation is correlated with the subjective value of ambiguous options.

A pragmatic randomised controlled trial of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening older women for the prevention of fractures: rationale, design and methods for the SCOOP study.

PubMed

Shepstone, L; Fordham, R; Lenaghan, E; Harvey, I; Cooper, C; Gittoes, N; Heawood, A; Peters, T J; O'Neill, T; Torgerson, D; Holland, R; Howe, A; Marshall, T; Kanis, J A; McCloskey, E

2012-10-01

SCOOP is a UK seven-centre, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial with 5-year follow-up, including 11,580 women aged 70 to 85 years, to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a community-based screening programme to reduce fractures. It utilises the FRAX algorithm and DXA to assess the 10-year probability of fracture. Introduction Osteoporotic, or low-trauma, fractures present a considerable burden to the National Health Service and have major adverse effects on quality of life, disability and mortality for the individual. Methods Given the availability of efficacious treatments and a risk assessment tool based upon clinical risk factors and bone mineral density, a case exists to undertake a community-based controlled evaluation of screening for subjects at high risk of fracture, under the hypothesis that such a screening programme would reduce fractures in this population. Results This study is a UK seven-centre, unblinded, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial with a 5-year follow-up period. A total of 11,580 women, aged 70 to 85 years and not on prescribed bone protective therapy will be consented to the trial by post via primary care providing 90% power to detect an 18% decrease in fractures. Conclusions Participants will be randomised to either a screening arm or control. Those undergoing screening will have a 10-year fracture probability computed from baseline risk factors together with bone mineral density measured by DXA in selected subjects. Individuals above an age-dependent threshold of fracture probability will be recommended for treatment for the duration of the trial. Subjects in the control arm will receive 'usual care'. Participants will be followed up 6 months after randomisation and annually by postal questionnaires with independent checking of hospital and primary care records. The primary outcome will be the proportion of individuals sustaining fractures in each group. An economic analysis will be carried out to assess cost-effectiveness of screening. A qualitative evaluation will be conducted to examine the acceptability of the process to participants.

Perceived Risks Contra Benefits of Using Biosimilar Drugs in Ulcerative Colitis: Discrete Choice Experiment among Gastroenterologists.

PubMed

Baji, Petra; Gulácsi, László; Golovics, Petra A; Lovász, Barbara D; Péntek, Márta; Brodszky, Valentin; Rencz, Fanni; Lakatos, Péter L

2016-09-01

In middle-income countries, access to biological therapy is limited in ulcerative colitis in terms of the number of patients and the length of therapy. Because of their cost advantages, biosimilars have the potential to improve access to therapy, but physicians have concerns toward their use because of the lack of evidence from randomized clinical trials. To explore the preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in ulcerative colitis as well as to compare our results with results of previous studies on gastroenterologists' preferences toward biosimilars. A discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists treating patients with inflammatory bowel disease in May 2014 with the following attributes: type of treatment (biosimilar/originator), severity of disease, availability of continuous medicine supply, and the stopping rule (whether the treatment is covered after 12 months). A conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. According to the results, the stopping rule was the most important attribute. The type of treatment mattered only for patients already on biologicals. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar option with all the benefits offered in the discrete choice experiment over the originator option under the present reimbursement conditions are 85% for new patients and 63% for patients already treated. Most gastroenterologists have concerns about using biosimilars. They, however, are willing to consider the use of biosimilars if they could reallocate the potential savings to provide their patients better access to biological treatment. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice.

PubMed

Cohn, David E; Havrilesky, Laura J; Osann, Kathryn; Lipscomb, Joseph; Hsieh, Susie; Walker, Joan L; Wright, Alexi A; Alvarez, Ronald D; Karlan, Beth Y; Bristow, Robert E; DiSilvestro, Paul A; Wakabayashi, Mark T; Morgan, Robert; Mukamel, Dana B; Wenzel, Lari

2015-09-01

To determine the degree of consensus regarding the probabilities of outcomes associated with IP/IV and IV chemotherapy. A survey was administered to an expert panel using the Delphi method. Ten ovarian cancer experts were asked to estimate outcomes for patients receiving IP/IV or IV chemotherapy. The clinical estimates were: 1) probability of completing six cycles of chemotherapy, 2) probability of surviving five years, 3) median survival, and 4) probability of ER/hospital visits during treatment. Estimates for two patients, one with a low comorbidity index (patient 1) and the other with a moderate index (patient 2), were included. The survey was administered in three rounds, and panelists could revise their subsequent responses based on review of the anonymous opinions of their peers. The ranges were smaller for IV compared with IP/IV therapy. Ranges decreased with each round. Consensus converged around outcomes related to IP/IV chemotherapy for: 1) completion of 6 cycles of therapy (type 1 patient, 62%, type 2 patient, 43%); 2) percentage of patients surviving 5 years (type 1 patient, 66%, type 2 patient, 47%); and 3) median survival (type 1 patient, 83 months, type 2 patient, 58 months). The group required three rounds to achieve consensus on the probabilities of ER/hospital visits (type 1 patient, 24%, type 2 patient, 35%). Initial estimates of survival and adverse events associated with IP/IV chemotherapy differ among experts. The Delphi process works to build consensus and may be a pragmatic tool to inform patients of their expected outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic structured education intervention for the prevention of type 2 diabetes: economic evaluation of data from the Let's Prevent Diabetes cluster-randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

Ahrabian, D; Davies, M J; Khunti, K; Yates, T; Gray, A M

2017-01-01

Objectives Prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus (TD2M) is a priority for healthcare systems. We estimated the cost-effectiveness compared with standard care of a structured education programme (Let's Prevent) targeting lifestyle and behaviour change to prevent progression to T2DM in people with prediabetes. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside randomised controlled trial. Setting 44 general practices in Leicestershire, England. Participants 880 participants with prediabetes randomised to receive either standard care or a 6-hour group structured education programme with follow-up sessions in a primary care setting. Main outcome measure Incremental cost utility from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Quality of life and resource use measured from baseline and during the 36 months follow-up using the EuroQoL EQ-5D and 15D instruments and an economic questionnaire. Outcomes measured using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs calculated in 2012–2013 prices. Results After accounting for clustering and missing data, the intervention group was found to have a net gain of 0.046 (95% CI −0.0171 to 0.109) QALYs over 3 years, adjusted for baseline utility, at an additional cost of £168 (95% CI −395 to 732) per patient compared with the standard care group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is £3643/QALY with an 86% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000/QALY. Conclusions The education programme had higher costs and higher quality of life compared with the standard care group. The Let's Prevent programme is very likely to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000/QALY gained. Trial registration number ISRCTN80605705. PMID:28069625

Long-term survival of high-risk melanoma patients immunized with a Hyper-IL-6-modified allogeneic whole-cell vaccine after complete resection.

PubMed

Mackiewicz, Andrzej; Mackiewicz, Jacek; Wysocki, Piotr J; Wiznerowicz, Maciej; Kapcinska, Malgorzata; Laciak, Maria; Rose-John, Stefan; Izycki, Dariusz; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Karczewska-Dzionk, Aldona

2012-06-01

Two single arm, Phase II trials (3 and 5) were undertaken to determine the efficacy and toxicity of an adjuvant treatment using Hyper-IL-6 gene-modified whole-cell allogeneic melanoma vaccine in patients with stage IIIB-IV resected disease. Ninety-seven and 99 patients were enrolled into Trials 3 and 5, respectively. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS), and the secondary was overall survival (OS). Vaccine was administered eight times every 2 weeks (induction), every month (maintenance) until patient's death. At progression, maintenance was continued or induction was repeated followed by maintenance. Median follow-up was 10.5 and 6.2 years for Trials 3 and 5, respectively. No grade 3 or 4 toxicities were observed. An extension of DFS and OS was observed, when compared with historical non-treated controls. DFS probability at 5 years for Trials 3 and 5 was, respectively, 54.8% and 40.6% for stage IIIB, 25.0% and 24.0% for IIIC, and 8.5% and 17.7% for IV. OS probability at 5 years was, respectively, 66.7% and 56.3% for IIIB, 43.8% and 39.8% for IIIC, and 26.1% and 41.2% for IV. Continuous vaccination, regardless of the disease progression, re-induction, and immunization of patients until death resulted in patients a long-term survival.

Baseline adjustments for binary data in repeated cross-sectional cluster randomized trials.

PubMed

Nixon, R M; Thompson, S G

2003-09-15

Analysis of covariance models, which adjust for a baseline covariate, are often used to compare treatment groups in a controlled trial in which individuals are randomized. Such analysis adjusts for any baseline imbalance and usually increases the precision of the treatment effect estimate. We assess the value of such adjustments in the context of a cluster randomized trial with repeated cross-sectional design and a binary outcome. In such a design, a new sample of individuals is taken from the clusters at each measurement occasion, so that baseline adjustment has to be at the cluster level. Logistic regression models are used to analyse the data, with cluster level random effects to allow for different outcome probabilities in each cluster. We compare the estimated treatment effect and its precision in models that incorporate a covariate measuring the cluster level probabilities at baseline and those that do not. In two data sets, taken from a cluster randomized trial in the treatment of menorrhagia, the value of baseline adjustment is only evident when the number of subjects per cluster is large. We assess the generalizability of these findings by undertaking a simulation study, and find that increased precision of the treatment effect requires both large cluster sizes and substantial heterogeneity between clusters at baseline, but baseline imbalance arising by chance in a randomized study can always be effectively adjusted for. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How long should a trial of escitalopram treatment be in patients with major depressive disorder, generalised anxiety disorder or social anxiety disorder? An exploration of the randomised controlled trial database.

PubMed

Baldwin, David S; Stein, Dan J; Dolberg, Ornah T; Bandelow, Borwin

2009-06-01

To extend the knowledge of course of improvement in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), social anxiety disorder (SAD) or generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) participating in randomised placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) and to infer the optimal duration of initial escitalopram treatment in clinical practice, after which intervention might be reasonable in case of non-response. Post hoc analysis of pooled clinical trial database for escitalopram in MDD (14 studies), GAD (4 studies) and SAD (2 studies). 'Onset' of action was defined as a 20% or more decrease from baseline score in disorder-specific psychopathological rating scales: 'response' as a 50% or more decrease from baseline score. In MDD, the probability of responding at week 8 if no onset was apparent at week 2 was 43%; in patients with an onset of effect the probability was nearly 80%. Similar patterns were observed in GAD and SAD. The chance of responding beyond week 4 in MDD, GAD and SAD was 20% or less if no effect had occurred by week 2. The pattern of response in these RCTs suggests that in patients with MDD, GAD or SAD in wider clinical practice, a period of at least 4 weeks is worthwhile before considering further intervention.

A meta-analysis of rate ratios for nocturnal confirmed hypoglycaemia with insulin degludec vs. insulin glargine using different definitions for hypoglycaemia.

PubMed

Heller, S; Mathieu, C; Kapur, R; Wolden, M L; Zinman, B

2016-04-01

A prospective meta-analysis of phase 3 trials showed lower rates of nocturnal hypoglycaemia with insulin degludec vs. insulin glargine. We investigated the consistency of the results across different definitions of hypoglycaemia. This post-hoc, patient-level meta-analysis included six randomized, controlled, 26- or 52-week phase 3a trials in insulin-naïve participants with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (Type 2 diabetesinsulin naïve ), participants with Type 2 diabetes mellitus using basal-bolus therapy (Type 2 diabetesBB ) and those with Type 1 diabetes mellitus. We used three definitions of hypoglycaemia and different timescales for the nocturnal period. Rates were analysed for the entire core trial period, the 'maintenance period' only, and the extension trial set population. Analyses utilized a negative binomial regression model. In Type 2 diabetesinsulin naïve participants, risk of nocturnal hypoglycaemia was significantly lower with insulin degludec vs. insulin glargine for all hypoglycaemia definitions and trial periods. Risk was also lower for the timescale 21.59-05.59, but not 00.01-07.59. For Type 2 diabetesBB , nocturnal hypoglycaemia rates were lower with insulin degludec vs. insulin glargine across all definitions, timescales and trial periods, with one exception. For individuals with Type 1 diabetes mellitus, nocturnal hypoglycaemia risk was significantly lower with insulin degludec during the maintenance period for the original definition (plasma glucose < 3.1 mmol/l, timescale 00.01-05.59) and in the extension trial set population for all hypoglycaemia definitions except for the nocturnal timescale 00.01-07.59. Compared with insulin glargine, insulin degludec is associated with lower rates of nocturnal hypoglycaemia in people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus, and similar or lower rates in Type 1 diabetes mellitus, across different definitions. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

Are multiple-trial experiments appropriate for eyewitness identification studies? Accuracy, choosing, and confidence across trials.

PubMed

Mansour, J K; Beaudry, J L; Lindsay, R C L

2017-12-01

Eyewitness identification experiments typically involve a single trial: A participant views an event and subsequently makes a lineup decision. As compared to this single-trial paradigm, multiple-trial designs are more efficient, but significantly reduce ecological validity and may affect the strategies that participants use to make lineup decisions. We examined the effects of a number of forensically relevant variables (i.e., memory strength, type of disguise, degree of disguise, and lineup type) on eyewitness accuracy, choosing, and confidence across 12 target-present and 12 target-absent lineup trials (N = 349; 8,376 lineup decisions). The rates of correct rejections and choosing (across both target-present and target-absent lineups) did not vary across the 24 trials, as reflected by main effects or interactions with trial number. Trial number had a significant but trivial quadratic effect on correct identifications (OR = 0.99) and interacted significantly, but again trivially, with disguise type (OR = 1.00). Trial number did not significantly influence participants' confidence in correct identifications, confidence in correct rejections, or confidence in target-absent selections. Thus, multiple-trial designs appear to have minimal effects on eyewitness accuracy, choosing, and confidence. Researchers should thus consider using multiple-trial designs for conducting eyewitness identification experiments.

Effects of distraction and pictorial illustration on memory for countries in older adults with probable Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Boudreaux, Emily O; Cherry, Katie E; Elliott, Emily M; Hicks, Jason L

2011-05-01

Eight participants with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) were trained to recall names of countries using the spaced-retrieval memory intervention. Six training sessions were administered on alternate days over a 2-week period. Half of the participants studied a target country alone and the other half studied a target country along with eight distractor countries. Training stimuli appeared in text-only format in half of the sessions and text with a color photograph of the country in the other sessions. On each trial, participants selected the target at increasingly longer retention intervals, contingent upon successful recall. Results indicated that the mean proportion of correct trials and longest duration achieved increased across training sessions, confirming the success of the spaced-retrieval intervention. Pictorial illustrations enhanced explicit memory for target country names. Implications of these data for current views on memory remediation in cognitively impaired older adults are discussed.

Contribution of correlated noise and selective decoding to choice probability measurements in extrastriate visual cortex.

PubMed

Gu, Yong; Angelaki, Dora E; DeAngelis, Gregory C

2014-07-01

Trial by trial covariations between neural activity and perceptual decisions (quantified by choice Probability, CP) have been used to probe the contribution of sensory neurons to perceptual decisions. CPs are thought to be determined by both selective decoding of neural activity and by the structure of correlated noise among neurons, but the respective roles of these factors in creating CPs have been controversial. We used biologically-constrained simulations to explore this issue, taking advantage of a peculiar pattern of CPs exhibited by multisensory neurons in area MSTd that represent self-motion. Although models that relied on correlated noise or selective decoding could both account for the peculiar pattern of CPs, predictions of the selective decoding model were substantially more consistent with various features of the neural and behavioral data. While correlated noise is essential to observe CPs, our findings suggest that selective decoding of neuronal signals also plays important roles.

Vegetation of natural and artificial shorelines in Upper Klamath Basin’s fringe wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Andrew M.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Hamilton, Andy S.

2013-01-01

The Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) in northern California and southern Oregon supports large hypereutrophic lakes surrounded by natural and artificial shorelines. Lake shorelines contain fringe wetlands that provide key ecological services to the people of this region. These wetlands also provide a context for drawing inferences about how differing wetland types and wave exposure contribute to the vegetative assemblages in lake-fringe wetlands. Here, we summarize how elevation profiles and vegetation richness vary as a function of wave exposure and wetland type. Our results show that levee wetland shorelines are 4X steeper and support fewer species than other wetland types. We also summarize the occurrence probability of the five common wetland plant species that represent the overwhelming majority of the diversity of these wetlands. In brief, the occurrence probability of the culturally significant Nuphar lutea spp. polysepala and the invasive Phalaris arundinacea in wave exposed and sheltered sites varies based on wetland type. The occurrence probability for P. arundinacea was greatest in exposed portions of deltaic shorelines, but these trends were reversed on levees where the occurrence probability was greater in sheltered sites. The widespread Schoenoplectus acutus var. acutus occurred throughout all wetland and exposure type combinations but had a higher probability of occurrence in wave exposed sites. Results from this work will add to our current understanding of how wetland shoreline profiles interact with wave exposure to influence the occurrence probability of the dominant vegetative species in UKB’s shoreline wetlands.

Target intersection probabilities for parallel-line and continuous-grid types of search

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCammon, R.B.

1977-01-01

The expressions for calculating the probability of intersection of hidden targets of different sizes and shapes for parallel-line and continuous-grid types of search can be formulated by vsing the concept of conditional probability. When the prior probability of the orientation of a widden target is represented by a uniform distribution, the calculated posterior probabilities are identical with the results obtained by the classic methods of probability. For hidden targets of different sizes and shapes, the following generalizations about the probability of intersection can be made: (1) to a first approximation, the probability of intersection of a hidden target is proportional to the ratio of the greatest dimension of the target (viewed in plane projection) to the minimum line spacing of the search pattern; (2) the shape of the hidden target does not greatly affect the probability of the intersection when the largest dimension of the target is small relative to the minimum spacing of the search pattern, (3) the probability of intersecting a target twice for a particular type of search can be used as a lower bound if there is an element of uncertainty of detection for a particular type of tool; (4) the geometry of the search pattern becomes more critical when the largest dimension of the target equals or exceeds the minimum spacing of the search pattern; (5) for elongate targets, the probability of intersection is greater for parallel-line search than for an equivalent continuous square-grid search when the largest dimension of the target is less than the minimum spacing of the search pattern, whereas the opposite is true when the largest dimension exceeds the minimum spacing; (6) the probability of intersection for nonorthogonal continuous-grid search patterns is not greatly different from the probability of intersection for the equivalent orthogonal continuous-grid pattern when the orientation of the target is unknown. The probability of intersection for an elliptically shaped target can be approximated by treating the ellipse as intermediate between a circle and a line. A search conducted along a continuous rectangular grid can be represented as intermediate between a search along parallel lines and along a continuous square grid. On this basis, an upper and lower bound for the probability of intersection of an elliptically shaped target for a continuous rectangular grid can be calculated. Charts have been constructed that permit the values for these probabilities to be obtained graphically. The use of conditional probability allows the explorationist greater flexibility in considering alternate search strategies for locating hidden targets. ?? 1977 Plenum Publishing Corp.

Regulatory issues with multiplicity in drug approval: Principles and controversies in a changing landscape.

PubMed

Benda, Norbert; Brandt, Andreas

2018-01-01

Recently, new draft guidelines on multiplicity issues in clinical trials have been issued by European Medicine Agency (EMA) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA), respectively. Multiplicity is an issue in clinical trials, if the probability of a false-positive decision is increased by insufficiently accounting for testing multiple hypotheses. We outline the regulatory principles related to multiplicity issues in confirmatory clinical trials intended to support a marketing authorization application in the EU, describe the reasons for an increasing complexity regarding multiple hypotheses testing and discuss the specific multiplicity issues emerging within the regulatory context and being relevant for drug approval.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, Casey W.; Green, Garrett; Noticewala, Sonal S.

Purpose: Validated models are needed to justify strategies to define planning target volumes (PTVs) for intact cervical cancer used in clinical practice. Our objective was to independently validate a previously published shape model, using data collected prospectively from clinical trials. Methods and Materials: We analyzed 42 patients with intact cervical cancer treated with daily fractionated pelvic intensity modulated radiation therapy and concurrent chemotherapy in one of 2 prospective clinical trials. We collected online cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans before each fraction. Clinical target volume (CTV) structures from the planning computed tomography scan were cast onto each CBCT scan aftermore » rigid registration and manually redrawn to account for organ motion and deformation. We applied the 95% isodose cloud from the planning computed tomography scan to each CBCT scan and computed any CTV outside the 95% isodose cloud. The primary aim was to determine the proportion of CTVs that were encompassed within the 95% isodose volume. A 1-sample t test was used to test the hypothesis that the probability of complete coverage was different from 95%. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to assess effects of time and patient variability. Results: The 95% isodose line completely encompassed 92.3% of all CTVs (95% confidence interval, 88.3%-96.4%), not significantly different from the 95% probability anticipated a priori (P=.19). The overall proportion of missed CTVs was small: the grand mean of covered CTVs was 99.9%, and 95.2% of misses were located in the anterior body of the uterus. Time did not affect coverage probability (P=.71). Conclusions: With the clinical implementation of a previously proposed PTV definition strategy based on a shape model for intact cervical cancer, the probability of CTV coverage was high and the volume of CTV missed was low. This PTV expansion strategy is acceptable for clinical trials and practice; however, we recommend daily image guidance to avoid systematic large misses in select patients.« less

Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

2011-01-01

In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

Foam dressings for treating pressure ulcers.

PubMed

Walker, Rachel M; Gillespie, Brigid M; Thalib, Lukman; Higgins, Niall S; Whitty, Jennifer A

2017-10-12

Pressure ulcers, also known as pressure injuries and bed sores, are localised areas of injury to the skin or underlying tissues, or both. Dressings made from a variety of materials, including foam, are used to treat pressure ulcers. An evidence-based overview of dressings for pressure ulcers is needed to enable informed decision-making on dressing use. This review is part of a suite of Cochrane Reviews investigating the use of dressings in the treatment of pressure ulcers. Each review will focus on a particular dressing type. To assess the clinical and cost effectiveness of foam wound dressings for healing pressure ulcers in people with an existing pressure ulcer in any care setting. In February 2017 we searched: the Cochrane Wounds Specialised Register; the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); Ovid MEDLINE (including In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations); Ovid Embase; EBSCO CINAHL Plus and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). We also searched clinical trials registries for ongoing and unpublished studies, and scanned reference lists of relevant included studies as well as reviews, meta-analyses and health technology reports to identify additional studies. There were no restrictions with respect to language, date of publication or study setting. Published or unpublished randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs, that compared the clinical and cost effectiveness of foam wound dressings for healing pressure ulcers (Category/Stage II or above). Two review authors independently performed study selection, risk of bias and data extraction. A third reviewer resolved discrepancies between the review authors. We included nine trials with a total of 483 participants, all of whom were adults (59 years or older) with an existing pressure ulcer Category/Stage II or above. All trials had two arms, which compared foam dressings with other dressings for treating pressure ulcers.The certainty of evidence ranged from low to very low due to various combinations of selection, performance, attrition, detection and reporting bias, and imprecision due to small sample sizes and wide confidence intervals. We had very little confidence in the estimate of effect of included studies. Where a foam dressing was compared with another foam dressing, we established that the true effect was likely to be substantially less than the study's estimated effect.We present data for four comparisons.One trial compared a silicone foam dressing with another (hydropolymer) foam dressing (38 participants), with an eight-week (short-term) follow-up. It was uncertain whether alternate types of foam dressing affected the incidence of healed pressure ulcers (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.75) or adverse events (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.04 to 3.25), as the certainty of evidence was very low, downgraded for serious limitations in study design and very serious imprecision.Four trials with a median sample size of 20 participants (230 participants), compared foam dressings with hydrocolloid dressings for eight weeks or less (short-term). It was uncertain whether foam dressings affected the probability of healing in comparison to hydrocolloid dressings over a short follow-up period in three trials (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.34), very low-certainty evidence, downgraded for very serious study limitations and serious imprecision. It was uncertain if there was a difference in risk of adverse events between groups (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.37 to 2.11), very low-certainty evidence, downgraded for serious study limitations and very serious imprecision. Reduction in ulcer size, patient satisfaction/acceptability, pain and cost effectiveness data were also reported but we assessed the evidence as being of very low certainty.One trial (34 participants), compared foam and hydrogel dressings over an eight-week (short-term) follow-up. It was uncertain if the foam dressing affected the probability of healing (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.28), time to complete healing (MD 5.67 days 95% CI -4.03 to 15.37), adverse events (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.01 to 7.65) or reduction in ulcer size (MD 0.30 cm 2 per day, 95% CI -0.15 to 0.75), as the certainty of the evidence was very low, downgraded for serious study limitations and very serious imprecision.The remaining three trials (181 participants) compared foam with basic wound contact dressings. Follow-up times ranged from short-term (8 weeks or less) to medium-term (8 to 24 weeks). It was uncertain whether foam dressings affected the probability of healing compared with basic wound contact dressings, in the short term (RR 1.33, 95% CI 0.62 to 2.88) or medium term (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.72), or affected time to complete healing in the medium term (MD -35.80 days, 95% CI -56.77 to -14.83), or adverse events in the medium term (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.33 to 1.05). This was due to the very low-certainty evidence, downgraded for serious to very serious study limitations and imprecision. Reduction in ulcer size, patient satisfaction/acceptability, pain and cost effectiveness data were also reported but again, we assessed the evidence as being of very low certainty.None of the included trials reported quality of life or pressure ulcer recurrence. It is uncertain whether foam dressings are more clinically effective, more acceptable to users, or more cost effective compared to alternative dressings in treating pressure ulcers. It was difficult to make accurate comparisons between foam dressings and other dressings due to the lack of data on reduction of wound size, complete wound healing, treatment costs, or insufficient time-frames. Quality of life and patient (or carer) acceptability/satisfaction associated with foam dressings were not systematically measured in any of the included studies. We assessed the certainty of the evidence in the included trials as low to very low. Clinicians need to carefully consider the lack of robust evidence in relation to the clinical and cost-effectiveness of foam dressings for treating pressure ulcers when making treatment decisions, particularly when considering the wound management properties that may be offered by each dressing type and the care context.

Urn models for response-adaptive randomized designs: a simulation study based on a non-adaptive randomized trial.

PubMed

Ghiglietti, Andrea; Scarale, Maria Giovanna; Miceli, Rosalba; Ieva, Francesca; Mariani, Luigi; Gavazzi, Cecilia; Paganoni, Anna Maria; Edefonti, Valeria

2018-03-22

Recently, response-adaptive designs have been proposed in randomized clinical trials to achieve ethical and/or cost advantages by using sequential accrual information collected during the trial to dynamically update the probabilities of treatment assignments. In this context, urn models-where the probability to assign patients to treatments is interpreted as the proportion of balls of different colors available in a virtual urn-have been used as response-adaptive randomization rules. We propose the use of Randomly Reinforced Urn (RRU) models in a simulation study based on a published randomized clinical trial on the efficacy of home enteral nutrition in cancer patients after major gastrointestinal surgery. We compare results with the RRU design with those previously published with the non-adaptive approach. We also provide a code written with the R software to implement the RRU design in practice. In detail, we simulate 10,000 trials based on the RRU model in three set-ups of different total sample sizes. We report information on the number of patients allocated to the inferior treatment and on the empirical power of the t-test for the treatment coefficient in the ANOVA model. We carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of different urn compositions. For each sample size, in approximately 75% of the simulation runs, the number of patients allocated to the inferior treatment by the RRU design is lower, as compared to the non-adaptive design. The empirical power of the t-test for the treatment effect is similar in the two designs.

Children with multiple sclerosis should not become therapeutic hostages

PubMed Central

Rose, Klaus; Müller, Thomas

2016-01-01

Background: Both the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Union (EU) European Medicines Agency (EMA) order pediatric clinical trials as a condition for approval of new compounds. We evaluate clinical value and likelihood of sufficient recruitment for pediatric multiple sclerosis (pMS) studies and discuss US and EU pediatric legislation with pMS as a paradigm. Methods: We analyzed pMS clinical trials requested by the FDA and the EMA and industry-sponsored pMS studies registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov and www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu. Results: The FDA demands four and the EMA 15 pMS trials Conclusions: pMS is rare. Neither FDA nor EMA prioritize compounds for potential benefit in pMS. The EMA in particular orders multiple pMS studies, which will probably not recruit enough patients. Therefore, it is likely that the pMS trial outcomes will not be relevant for evidence-based medicine analyses, clinical practice and a pMS label for the respective drug. EMA requests for multiple pediatric studies have been described in metastasized adolescent melanoma, another very rare pediatric disease. The terms ‘ghost studies’ and ‘therapeutic hostages’ have been proposed for such trials and children whose parents are lured into permitting study participation. Clinical studies are not ethical if the probability is high that they will not provide reasonable outcomes. For now, pMS clinicians will have to continue to use new MS drugs in children off-label. They might consider a more proactive international coordinating role in prioritizing and testing new MS compounds in children. PMID:27582894

A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis.

PubMed

Browne, Erica N; Rathinam, Sivakumar R; Kanakath, Anuradha; Thundikandy, Radhika; Babu, Manohar; Lietman, Thomas M; Acharya, Nisha R

2017-02-01

To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitis using expert opinion as a subjective prior belief. A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolate mofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan-uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American Uveitis Society executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval (CrI). A prior probability distribution was created from experts' estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probability distribution and the trial's primary outcome. A total of 11 of the 12 invited uveitis specialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycophenolate mofetil is more effective. The group prior belief was that the odds of treatment success for patients taking mycophenolate mofetil were 1.4-fold the odds of those taking methotrexate (95% CrI 0.03-45.0). The odds of treatment success with mycophenolate mofetil compared to methotrexate was 0.4 from the RCT (95% confidence interval 0.1-1.2) and 0.7 (95% CrI 0.2-1.7) from the Bayesian analysis. A Bayesian analysis combining expert belief with the trial's result did not indicate preference for one drug. However, the wide credible interval leaves open the possibility of a substantial treatment effect. This suggests clinical equipoise necessary to allow a larger, more definitive RCT.

A Markov chain model for reliability growth and decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegrist, K.

1982-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to describe a complex system undergoing a sequence of trials in which there is interaction between the internal states of the system and the outcomes of the trials. For example, the model might describe a system undergoing testing that is redesigned after each failure. The basic assumptions for the model are that the state of the system after a trial depends probabilistically only on the state before the trial and on the outcome of the trial and that the outcome of a trial depends probabilistically only on the state of the system before the trial. It is shown that under these basic assumptions, the successive states form a Markov chain and the successive states and outcomes jointly form a Markov chain. General results are obtained for the transition probabilities, steady-state distributions, etc. A special case studied in detail describes a system that has two possible state ('repaired' and 'unrepaired') undergoing trials that have three possible outcomes ('inherent failure', 'assignable-cause' 'failure' and 'success'). For this model, the reliability function is computed explicitly and an optimal repair policy is obtained.

[Effects of prefrontal ablations on the reaction of the active choice of feeder under different probability and value of the reinforcement on dog].

PubMed

Preobrazhenskaia, L A; Ioffe, M E; Mats, V N

2004-01-01

The role of the prefrontal cortex was investigated on the reaction of the active choice of the two feeders under changes value and probability reinforcement. The experiments were performed on 2 dogs with prefrontal ablation (g. proreus). Before the lesions the dogs were taught to receive food in two different feeders to conditioned stimuli with equally probable alimentary reinforcement. After ablation in the inter-trial intervals the dogs were running from the one feeder to another. In the answer to conditioned stimuli for many times the dogs choose the same feeder. The disturbance of the behavior after some times completely restored. In the experiments with competition of probability events and values of reinforcement the dogs chose the feeder with low-probability but better quality of reinforcement. In the experiments with equal value but different probability the intact dogs chose the feeder with higher probability. In our experiments the dogs with prefrontal lesions chose the each feeder equiprobably. Thus in condition of free behavior one of different functions of the prefrontal cortex is the reactions choose with more probability of reinforcement.

Reducing the framing effect in older and younger adults by encouraging analytic processing.

PubMed

Thomas, Ayanna K; Millar, Peter R

2012-03-01

The present study explored whether the framing effect could be reduced in older and younger adults using techniques that influenced the accessibility of information relevant to the decision-making processing. Accessibility was manipulated indirectly in Experiment 1 by having participants engage in concurrent tasks, and directly in Experiment 2, through an instructions manipulation that required participants to maintain a goal of analytic processing throughout the experimental trial. We tested 120 older and 120 younger adults in Experiment 1. Participants completed 28 decision trials while concurrently either performing a probability calculation task or a memory task. In Experiment 2, we tested 136 older and 136 younger adults. Participants completed 48 decision trials after either having been instructed to "think like a scientist" or base decisions on "gut reactions." Results demonstrated that the framing effect was reduced in older and younger adults in the probability calculation task in Experiment 1 and under the "think like a scientist" instructions manipulation in Experiment 2. These results suggest that when information relevant to unbiased decision making was made more accessible, both older and younger adults were able to reduce susceptibility to the framing effect.

Is a comparative clinical trial for breast cancer tumor markers to monitor disease recurrence warranted? A value of information analysis

PubMed Central

Thariani, Rahber; Henry, Norah Lynn; Ramsey, Scott D; Blough, David K; Barlow, Bill; Gralow, Julie R; Veenstra, David L

2014-01-01

Background Breast cancer tumor markers are used by some clinicians to screen for disease recurrence risk. Since there is limited evidence of benefit, additional research may be warranted. Aim To assess the potential value of a randomized clinical trial of breast tumor marker testing in routine follow-up of high-risk, stage II–III breast cancer survivors. Materials & methods We developed a decision-analytic model of tumor marker testing plus standard surveillance every 3–6 months for 5 years. The expected value of sample information was calculated using probabilistic simulations and was a function of: the probability of selecting the optimal monitoring strategy with current versus future information; the impact of choosing the nonoptimal strategy; and the size of the population affected. Results The value of information for a randomized clinical trial involving 9000 women was US$214 million compared with a cost of US$30–60 million to conduct such a trial. The probability of making an alternate, nonoptimal decision and choosing testing versus no testing was 32% with current versus future information from the trial. The impact of a nonoptimal decision was US$2150 and size of population impacted over 10 years was 308,000. The value of improved information on overall survival was US$105 million, quality of life US$37 million and test performance US$71 million. Conclusion Conducting a randomized clinical trial of breast cancer tumor markers appears to offer a good societal return on investment. Retrospective analyses to assess test performance and evaluation of patient quality of life using tumor markers may also offer valuable areas of research. However, alternative investments may offer even better returns in investments and, as such, the trial concept deserves further study as part of an overall research-portfolio evaluation. PMID:24236631

Preventing urinary tract infections in early childhood.

PubMed

Williams, Gabrielle J; Craig, Jonathan C; Carapetis, Jonathan R

2013-01-01

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is common in children, causes them considerable discomfort, as well as distress to parents and has a tendency to recur. Approximately 20% of those children who experience one infection will have a repeat episode. Since 1975, 11 trials of long-term antibiotics compared with placebo or no treatment in 1,550 children have been published. Results have been heterogeneous, but the largest trial demonstrated a small reduction (6% absolute risk reduction, risk ratio 0.65) in the risk of repeat symptomatic UTI over 12 months of treatment. This effect was consistent across sub groups of children based upon age, gender, vesicoureteric reflux status and number of prior infections. Trials involving re-implantation surgery (and antibiotics compared with antibiotics alone) for the sub-group of children with vesicoureteric reflux have not shown a reduction in repeat UTI, with the possible exception of a very small benefit for febrile UTI. Systematic reviews have shown that circumcision reduces the risk of repeat infection but 111 circumcisions would need to be performed to prevent one UTI in unpredisposed boys. Given the need for anaesthesia and the risk of surgical complication, net clinical benefit is probably restricted to those who are predisposed (such as those with recurrent infection). Many small trials in complementary therapies have been published and many suggest some benefit, however inclusion of children is limited. Only three trials involving 394 children for cranberry products, two trials with a total of 252 children for probiotics and one trial with 24 children for vitamin A are published. Estimates of efficacy vary widely and imprecision is evident. Multiple interventions to prevent UTI in children exist. Of those, long-term low dose antibiotics has the strongest evidence base, but the benefit is small. Circumcision in boys reduces the risk substantially, but should be restricted to those at risk. There is little evidence of benefit of re-implantation alone, and the benefit of this procedure over antibiotics alone is very small. Cranberry concentrate is probably effective.

The probability and severity of decompression sickness

PubMed Central

Hada, Ethan A.; Vann, Richard D.; Denoble, Petar J.

2017-01-01

Decompression sickness (DCS), which is caused by inert gas bubbles in tissues, is an injury of concern for scuba divers, compressed air workers, astronauts, and aviators. Case reports for 3322 air and N2-O2 dives, resulting in 190 DCS events, were retrospectively analyzed and the outcomes were scored as (1) serious neurological, (2) cardiopulmonary, (3) mild neurological, (4) pain, (5) lymphatic or skin, and (6) constitutional or nonspecific manifestations. Following standard U.S. Navy medical definitions, the data were grouped into mild—Type I (manifestations 4–6)–and serious–Type II (manifestations 1–3). Additionally, we considered an alternative grouping of mild–Type A (manifestations 3–6)–and serious–Type B (manifestations 1 and 2). The current U.S. Navy guidance allows for a 2% probability of mild DCS and a 0.1% probability of serious DCS. We developed a hierarchical trinomial (3-state) probabilistic DCS model that simultaneously predicts the probability of mild and serious DCS given a dive exposure. Both the Type I/II and Type A/B discriminations of mild and serious DCS resulted in a highly significant (p << 0.01) improvement in trinomial model fit over the binomial (2-state) model. With the Type I/II definition, we found that the predicted probability of ‘mild’ DCS resulted in a longer allowable bottom time for the same 2% limit. However, for the 0.1% serious DCS limit, we found a vastly decreased allowable bottom dive time for all dive depths. If the Type A/B scoring was assigned to outcome severity, the no decompression limits (NDL) for air dives were still controlled by the acceptable serious DCS risk limit rather than the acceptable mild DCS risk limit. However, in this case, longer NDL limits were allowed than with the Type I/II scoring. The trinomial model mild and serious probabilities agree reasonably well with the current air NDL only with the Type A/B scoring and when 0.2% risk of serious DCS is allowed. PMID:28296928

Pilot and Repeat Trials as Development Tools Associated with Demonstration of Bioequivalence.

PubMed

Fuglsang, Anders

2015-05-01

The purpose of this work is to use simulated trials to study how pilot trials can be implemented in relation to bioequivalence testing, and how the use of the information obtained at the pilot stage can influence the overall chance of showing bioequivalence (power) or the chance of approving a truly bioinequivalent product (type I error). The work also covers the use of repeat pivotal trials since the difference between a pilot trial followed by a pivotal trial and a pivotal trial followed by a repeat trial is mainly a question of whether a conclusion of bioequivalence can be allowed after the first trial. Repeating a pivotal trial after a failed trial involves dual or serial testing of the bioequivalence null hypothesis, and the paper illustrates how this may inflate the type I error up to almost 10%. Hence, it is questioned if such practice is in the interest of patients. Tables for power, type I error, and sample sizes are provided for a total of six different decision trees which allow the developer to use either the observed geometric mean ratio (GMR) from the first or trial or to assume that the GMR is 0.95. In cases when the true GMR can be controlled so as not to deviate more from unity than 0.95, sequential design methods ad modum Potvin may be superior to pilot trials. The tables provide a quantitative basis for choosing between sequential designs and pivotal trials preceded by pilot trials.

I Plan Therefore I Choose: Free-Choice Bias Due to Prior Action-Probability but Not Action-Value

PubMed Central

Suriya-Arunroj, Lalitta; Gail, Alexander

2015-01-01

According to an emerging view, decision-making, and motor planning are tightly entangled at the level of neural processing. Choice is influenced not only by the values associated with different options, but also biased by other factors. Here we test the hypothesis that preliminary action planning can induce choice biases gradually and independently of objective value when planning overlaps with one of the potential action alternatives. Subjects performed center-out reaches obeying either a clockwise or counterclockwise cue-response rule in two tasks. In the probabilistic task, a pre-cue indicated the probability of each of the two potential rules to become valid. When the subsequent rule-cue unambiguously indicated which of the pre-cued rules was actually valid (instructed trials), subjects responded faster to rules pre-cued with higher probability. When subjects were allowed to choose freely between two equally rewarded rules (choice trials) they chose the originally more likely rule more often and faster, despite the lack of an objective advantage in selecting this target. In the amount task, the pre-cue indicated the amount of potential reward associated with each rule. Subjects responded faster to rules pre-cued with higher reward amount in instructed trials of the amount task, equivalent to the more likely rule in the probabilistic task. Yet, in contrast, subjects showed hardly any choice bias and no increase in response speed in favor of the original high-reward target in the choice trials of the amount task. We conclude that free-choice behavior is robustly biased when predictability encourages the planning of one of the potential responses, while prior reward expectations without action planning do not induce such strong bias. Our results provide behavioral evidence for distinct contributions of expected value and action planning in decision-making and a tight interdependence of motor planning and action selection, supporting the idea that the underlying neural mechanisms overlap. PMID:26635565

Economic Evaluation of a General Hospital Unit for Older People with Delirium and Dementia (TEAM Randomised Controlled Trial).

PubMed

Tanajewski, Lukasz; Franklin, Matthew; Gkountouras, Georgios; Berdunov, Vladislav; Harwood, Rowan H; Goldberg, Sarah E; Bradshaw, Lucy E; Gladman, John R F; Elliott, Rachel A

2015-01-01

One in three hospital acute medical admissions is of an older person with cognitive impairment. Their outcomes are poor and the quality of their care in hospital has been criticised. A specialist unit to care for older people with delirium and dementia (the Medical and Mental Health Unit, MMHU) was developed and then tested in a randomised controlled trial where it delivered significantly higher quality of, and satisfaction with, care, but no significant benefits in terms of health status outcomes at three months. To examine the cost-effectiveness of the MMHU for older people with delirium and dementia in general hospitals, compared with standard care. Six hundred participants aged over 65 admitted for acute medical care, identified on admission as cognitively impaired, were randomised to the MMHU or to standard care on acute geriatric or general medical wards. Cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, at 3-month follow-up, was assessed in trial-based economic evaluation (599/600 participants, intervention: 309). Multiple imputation and complete-case sample analyses were employed to deal with missing QALY data (55%). The total adjusted health and social care costs, including direct costs of the intervention, at 3 months was £7714 and £7862 for MMHU and standard care groups, respectively (difference -£149 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -298, 4)). The difference in QALYs gained was 0.001 (95% CI: -0.006, 0.008). The probability that the intervention was dominant was 58%, and the probability that it was cost-saving with QALY loss was 39%. At £20,000/QALY threshold, the probability of cost-effectiveness was 94%, falling to 59% when cost-saving QALY loss cases were excluded. The MMHU was strongly cost-effective using usual criteria, although considerably less so when the less acceptable situation with QALY loss and cost savings were excluded. Nevertheless, this model of care is worthy of further evaluation. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01136148.

The influence of baseline marijuana use on treatment of cocaine dependence: application of an informative-priors bayesian approach.

PubMed

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F Gerard

2012-01-01

Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect.

Associations Between Ankle-Brachial Index and Cognitive Function: Results From the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders Trial.

PubMed

Espeland, Mark A; Newman, Anne B; Sink, Kaycee; Gill, Thomas M; King, Abby C; Miller, Michael E; Guralnik, Jack; Katula, Jeff; Church, Timothy; Manini, Todd; Reid, Kieran F; McDermott, Mary M

2015-08-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between ankle-brachial index (ABI) and indicators of cognitive function. Randomized clinical trial (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders Trial). Eight US academic centers. A total of 1601 adults ages 70-89 years, sedentary, without dementia, and with functional limitations. Baseline ABI and interviewer- and computer-administered cognitive function assessments were obtained. These assessments were used to compare a physical activity intervention with a health education control. Cognitive function was reassessed 24 months later (interviewer-administered) and 18 or 30 months later (computer-administered) and central adjudication was used to classify individuals as having mild cognitive impairment, probable dementia, or neither. Lower ABI had a modest independent association with poorer cognitive functioning at baseline (partial r = 0.09; P < .001). Although lower baseline ABI was not associated with overall changes in cognitive function test scores, it was associated with higher odds for 2-year progression to a composite of either mild cognitive impairment or probable dementia (odds ratio 2.60 per unit lower ABI; 95% confidence interval 1.06-6.37). Across 2 years, changes in ABI were not associated with changes in cognitive function. In an older cohort sedentary individuals with dementia and with functional limitations, lower baseline ABI was independently correlated with cognitive function and associated with greater 2-year risk for progression to mild cognitive impairment or probable dementia. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Baseline Marijuana Use on Treatment of Cocaine Dependence: Application of an Informative-Priors Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Green, Charles; Schmitz, Joy; Lindsay, Jan; Pedroza, Claudia; Lane, Scott; Agnelli, Rob; Kjome, Kimberley; Moeller, F. Gerard

2012-01-01

Background: Marijuana use is prevalent among patients with cocaine dependence and often non-exclusionary in clinical trials of potential cocaine medications. The dual-focus of this study was to (1) examine the moderating effect of baseline marijuana use on response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa for cocaine dependence; and (2) apply an informative-priors, Bayesian approach for estimating the probability of a subgroup-by-treatment interaction effect. Method: A secondary data analysis of two previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trials provided complete data for the historical (Study 1: N = 64 placebo), and current (Study 2: N = 113) data sets. Negative binomial regression evaluated Treatment Effectiveness Scores (TES) as a function of medication condition (levodopa/carbidopa, placebo), baseline marijuana use (days in past 30), and their interaction. Results: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 96% chance that baseline marijuana use predicts differential response to treatment with levodopa/carbidopa. Simple effects indicated that among participants receiving levodopa/carbidopa the probability that baseline marijuana confers harm in terms of reducing TES was 0.981; whereas the probability that marijuana confers harm within the placebo condition was 0.163. For every additional day of marijuana use reported at baseline, participants in the levodopa/carbidopa condition demonstrated a 5.4% decrease in TES; while participants in the placebo condition demonstrated a 4.9% increase in TES. Conclusion: The potential moderating effect of marijuana on cocaine treatment response should be considered in future trial designs. Applying Bayesian subgroup analysis proved informative in characterizing this patient-treatment interaction effect. PMID:23115553

Temporal prediction modulates the evaluative processing of "good" action feedback: An electrophysiological study.

PubMed

Kimura, Kenta; Kimura, Motohiro; Iwaki, Sunao

2016-10-01

The present study aimed to investigate whether or not the evaluative processing of action feedback can be modulated by temporal prediction. For this purpose, we examined the effects of the predictability of the timing of action feedback on an ERP effect that indexed the evaluative processing of action feedback, that is, an ERP effect that has been interpreted as a feedback-related negativity (FRN) elicited by "bad" action feedback or a reward positivity (RewP) elicited by "good" action feedback. In two types of experimental blocks, the participants performed a gambling task in which they chose one of two cards and received an action feedback that indicated monetary gain or loss. In fixed blocks, the time interval between the participant's choice and the onset of the action feedback was fixed at 0, 500, or 1,000 ms in separate blocks; thus, the timing of action feedback was predictable. In mixed blocks, the time interval was randomly chosen from the same three intervals with equal probability; thus, the timing was less predictable. The results showed that the FRN/RewP was smaller in mixed than fixed blocks for the 0-ms interval trial, whereas there was no difference between the two block types for the 500-ms and 1,000-ms interval trials. Interestingly, the smaller FRN/RewP was due to the modulation of gain ERPs rather than loss ERPs. These results suggest that temporal prediction can modulate the evaluative processing of action feedback, and particularly good feedback, such as that which indicates monetary gain. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Herpes simplex virus type 1 and Bell's palsy-a current assessment of the controversy.

PubMed

Kennedy, Peter Ge

2010-02-01

Bell's palsy causes about two thirds of cases of acute peripheral facial weakness. Although the majority of cases completely recover spontaneously, about 30% of cases do not and are at risk from persisting severe facial paralysis and pain. It has been suggested that herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) may be the etiological agent that causes Bell's palsy. Although corticosteroid therapy is now universally recognized as improving the outcome of Bell's palsy, the question as to whether or not a combination of antiviral agents and corticosteroids result in a better rate of complete facial recovery compared with corticosteroids alone is now a highly contentious issue. The evidence obtained from laboratory studies of animals and humans that HSV-1 may be linked to facial nerve paralysis is first outlined. The discussion then focuses on the results of different clinical trials of the efficacy of antiviral agents combined with corticosteroids in increasing the rate of complete recovery in Bell's palsy. These have often given different results leading to opposite conclusions as to the efficacy of antivirals. Of three recent meta-analyses of previous trials, two concluded that antivirals produce no added benefit to corticosteroids alone in producing complete facial recovery, and one concluded that such combined therapy may be associated with additional benefit. Although it is probably not justified at the present time to treat patients with Bell's palsy with antiviral agents in addition to corticosteroids, it remains to be shown whether antivirals may be beneficial in treating patients who present with severe or complete facial paralysis.

Latent autoimmune diabetes of the adult: current knowledge and uncertainty

PubMed Central

Laugesen, E; Østergaard, J A; Leslie, R D G

2015-01-01

Patients with adult-onset autoimmune diabetes have less Human Leucocyte Antigen (HLA)-associated genetic risk and fewer diabetes-associated autoantibodies compared with patients with childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes. Metabolic changes at diagnosis reflect a broad clinical phenotype ranging from diabetic ketoacidosis to mild non-insulin-requiring diabetes, also known as latent autoimmune diabetes of the adult (LADA). This latter phenotype is the most prevalent form of adult-onset autoimmune diabetes and probably the most prevalent form of autoimmune diabetes in general. Although LADA is associated with the same genetic and immunological features as childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes, it also shares some genetic features with Type 2 diabetes, which raises the question of genetic heterogeneity predisposing to this form of the disease. The potential value of screening patients with adult-onset diabetes for diabetes-associated autoantibodies to identify those with LADA is emphasized by their lack of clinically distinct features, their different natural history compared with Type 2 diabetes and their potential need for a dedicated management strategy. The fact that, in some studies, patients with LADA show worse glucose control than patients with Type 2 diabetes, highlights the need for further therapeutic studies. Challenges regarding classification, epidemiology, genetics, metabolism, immunology, clinical presentation and treatment of LADA were discussed at a 2014 workshop arranged by the Danish Diabetes Academy. The presentations and discussions are summarized in this review, which sets out the current ideas and controversies surrounding this form of diabetes. What’s new? Latent autoimmune diabetes of the adult (LADA) is an autoimmune diabetes defined by adult-onset, presence of diabetes associated autoantibodies, and no insulin treatment requirement for a period after diagnosis. Immunologically, glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 autoantibodies are by far the most common autoantibody in adult-onset diabetes. LADA is the most prevalent form of adult-onset autoimmune diabetes and probably the most prevalent form of autoimmune diabetes in general. LADA shares genetic features with both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Phenotypically, LADA patients are often misdiagnosed as having type 2 diabetes. LADA patients generally have worse HbA1c levels than type 2 diabetes patients. Clinically, LADA patients tend to have a lower mean age at diabetes onset, lower body mass index and more frequent need for insulin treatment than patients with type 2 diabetes. Management of LADA may require a dedicated strategy, yet currently there is a paucity of randomized controlled trial data. PMID:25601320

Comparison of catch per unit effort among four minnow trap models in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) fishery.

PubMed

Budria, Alexandre; DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2015-12-21

Minnow traps are commonly used in the stickleback (Gasterostidae) fishery, but the potential differences in catch per unit effort (CPUE) among different minnow trap models are little studied. We compared the CPUE of four different minnow trap models in field experiments conducted with three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Marked (up to 26 fold) differences in median CPUE among different trap models were observed. Metallic uncoated traps yielded the largest CPUE (2.8 fish/h), followed by metallic black nylon-coated traps (1.3 fish/h). Collapsible canvas traps yielded substantially lower CPUEs (black: 0.7 fish/h; red: 0.1 fish/h) than the metallic traps. Laboratory trials further revealed significant differences in escape probabilities among the different trap models. While the differences in escape probability can explain at least part of the differences in CPUE among the trap models (e.g. high escape rate and low CPUE in red canvas traps), discrepancies between model-specific CPUEs and escape rates suggests that variation in entrance rate also contributes to the differences in CPUE. In general, and in accordance with earlier data on nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) trapping, the results suggest that uncoated metallic (Gee-type) traps are superior to the other commonly used minnow trap models in stickleback fisheries.

Comparison of catch per unit effort among four minnow trap models in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) fishery

PubMed Central

Budria, Alexandre; DeFaveri, Jacquelin; Merilä, Juha

2015-01-01

Minnow traps are commonly used in the stickleback (Gasterostidae) fishery, but the potential differences in catch per unit effort (CPUE) among different minnow trap models are little studied. We compared the CPUE of four different minnow trap models in field experiments conducted with three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Marked (up to 26 fold) differences in median CPUE among different trap models were observed. Metallic uncoated traps yielded the largest CPUE (2.8 fish/h), followed by metallic black nylon-coated traps (1.3 fish/h). Collapsible canvas traps yielded substantially lower CPUEs (black: 0.7 fish/h; red: 0.1 fish/h) than the metallic traps. Laboratory trials further revealed significant differences in escape probabilities among the different trap models. While the differences in escape probability can explain at least part of the differences in CPUE among the trap models (e.g. high escape rate and low CPUE in red canvas traps), discrepancies between model-specific CPUEs and escape rates suggests that variation in entrance rate also contributes to the differences in CPUE. In general, and in accordance with earlier data on nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) trapping, the results suggest that uncoated metallic (Gee-type) traps are superior to the other commonly used minnow trap models in stickleback fisheries. PMID:26685761

Emotions in Go/NoGo conflicts.

PubMed

Schacht, Annekathrin; Nigbur, Roland; Sommer, Werner

2009-11-01

On the basis of current emotion theories and functional and neurophysiological ties between the processing of conflicts and errors on the one hand and errors and emotions on the other hand we predicted that conflicts between prepotent Go responses and occasional NoGo trials in the Go/NoGo task would induce emotions. Skin conductance responses (SCRs), corrugator muscle activity, and startle blink responses were measured in three experiments requiring speeded Go responses intermixed with NoGo trials of different relative probability and in a choice reaction experiment serving as a control. NoGo trials affected several of these emotion-sensitive indicators as SCRs and startle blinks were reduced whereas corrugator activity was prolonged as compared to Go trials. From the pattern of findings we suggest that NoGo conflicts are not aversive. Instead, they appear to be appraised as obstructive for the response goal and as less action relevant than Go trials.

Using short-term evidence to predict six-month outcomes in clinical trials of signs and symptoms in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Nixon, Richard M; Bansback, Nick; Stevens, John W; Brennan, Alan; Madan, Jason

2009-01-01

A model is presented to generate a distribution for the probability of an ACR response at six months for a new treatment for rheumatoid arthritis given evidence from a one- or three-month clinical trial. The model is based on published evidence from 11 randomized controlled trials on existing treatments. A hierarchical logistic regression model is used to find the relationship between the proportion of patients achieving ACR20 and ACR50 at one and three months and the proportion at six months. The model is assessed by Bayesian predictive P-values that demonstrate that the model fits the data well. The model can be used to predict the number of patients with an ACR response for proposed six-month clinical trials given data from clinical trials of one or three months duration. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interventions to improve hand hygiene compliance in patient care.

PubMed

Gould, Dinah J; Moralejo, Donna; Drey, Nicholas; Chudleigh, Jane H; Taljaard, Monica

2017-09-01

Health care-associated infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Hand hygiene is regarded as an effective preventive measure. This is an update of a previously published review. To assess the short- and long-term success of strategies to improve compliance to recommendations for hand hygiene, and to determine whether an increase in hand hygiene compliance can reduce rates of health care-associated infection. We conducted electronic searches of the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL. We conducted the searches from November 2009 to October 2016. We included randomised trials, non-randomised trials, controlled before-after studies, and interrupted time series analyses (ITS) that evaluated any intervention to improve compliance with hand hygiene using soap and water or alcohol-based hand rub (ABHR), or both. Two review authors independently screened citations for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risks of bias for each included study. Meta-analysis was not possible, as there was substantial heterogeneity across studies. We assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach and present the results narratively in a 'Summary of findings' table. This review includes 26 studies: 14 randomised trials, two non-randomised trials and 10 ITS studies. Most studies were conducted in hospitals or long-term care facilities in different countries, and collected data from a variety of healthcare workers. Fourteen studies assessed the success of different combinations of strategies recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to improve hand hygiene compliance. Strategies consisted of the following: increasing the availability of ABHR, different types of education for staff, reminders (written and verbal), different types of performance feedback, administrative support, and staff involvement. Six studies assessed different types of performance feedback, two studies evaluated education, three studies evaluated cues such as signs or scent, and one study assessed placement of ABHR. Observed hand hygiene compliance was measured in all but three studies which reported product usage. Eight studies also reported either infection or colonisation rates. All studies had two or more sources of high or unclear risks of bias, most often associated with blinding or independence of the intervention.Multimodal interventions that include some but not all strategies recommended in the WHO guidelines may slightly improve hand hygiene compliance (five studies; 56 centres) and may slightly reduce infection rates (three studies; 34 centres), low certainty of evidence for both outcomes.Multimodal interventions that include all strategies recommended in the WHO guidelines may slightly reduce colonisation rates (one study; 167 centres; low certainty of evidence). It is unclear whether the intervention improves hand hygiene compliance (five studies; 184 centres) or reduces infection (two studies; 16 centres) because the certainty of this evidence is very low.Multimodal interventions that contain all strategies recommended in the WHO guidelines plus additional strategies may slightly improve hand hygiene compliance (six studies; 15 centres; low certainty of evidence). It is unclear whether this intervention reduces infection rates (one study; one centre; very low certainty of evidence).Performance feedback may improve hand hygiene compliance (six studies; 21 centres; low certainty of evidence). This intervention probably slightly reduces infection (one study; one centre) and colonisation rates (one study; one centre) based on moderate certainty of evidence.Education may improve hand hygiene compliance (two studies; two centres), low certainty of evidence.Cues such as signs or scent may slightly improve hand hygiene compliance (three studies; three centres), low certainty of evidence.Placement of ABHR close to point of use probably slightly improves hand hygiene compliance (one study; one centre), moderate certainty of evidence. With the identified variability in certainty of evidence, interventions, and methods, there remains an urgent need to undertake methodologically robust research to explore the effectiveness of multimodal versus simpler interventions to increase hand hygiene compliance, and to identify which components of multimodal interventions or combinations of strategies are most effective in a particular context.

Modelling the occurrence and severity of enoxaparin-induced bleeding and bruising events

PubMed Central

Barras, Michael A; Duffull, Stephen B; Atherton, John J; Green, Bruce

2009-01-01

AIMS To develop a population pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic model to describe the occurrence and severity of bleeding or bruising as a function of enoxaparin exposure. METHODS Data were obtained from a randomized controlled trial (n = 118) that compared conventional dosing of enoxaparin (product label) with an individualized dosing regimen. Anti-Xa concentrations were sampled using a sparse design and the size, location and type of bruising and bleeding event, during enoxaparin therapy, were collected daily. A population pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic analysis was performed using nonlinear mixed effects techniques. The final model was used to explore how the probability of events in patients with obesity and/or renal impairment varied under differing dosing strategies. RESULTS Three hundred and forty-nine anti-Xa concentrations were available for analysis. A two-compartment first-order absorption and elimination model best fit the data, with lean body weight describing between-subject variability in clearance and central volume of distribution. A three-category proportional-odds model described the occurrence and severity of events as a function of both cumulative enoxaparin AUC (cAUC) and subject age. Simulations showed that individualized dosing decreased the probability of a bleeding or major bruising event when compared with conventional dosing, which was most noticeable in subjects with obesity and renal impairment. CONCLUSIONS The occurrence and severity of a bleeding or major bruising event to enoxaparin, administered for the treatment of a thromboembolic disease, can be described as a function of both cAUC and subject age. Individualized dosing of enoxaparin will reduce the probability of an event. PMID:19916994

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. Methods The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. Results The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. Conclusions If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used. PMID:24552686

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

PubMed

Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

2014-02-19

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

Metformin for the prevention of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in women with gestational diabetes and obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kalafat, Erkan; Sukur, Yavuz Emre; Abdi, Abdulkadir; Thilaganathan, Basky; Khalil, Asma

2018-05-10

Metformin has been reported to reduce the risk of preeclampsia. It is also known to influence soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) levels, which correlate significantly with the gestation of onset and severity of preeclampsia. The main aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine whether metformin use is associated with the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). MEDLINE (1947 - September 2017), Scopus (1970 - September 2017) and the Cochrane Library (since inception - September 2017) were searched for relevant citations in English language. Randomized controlled trials on metformin use, reporting the incidence of preeclampsia or pregnancy induced hypertension were included. Studies on populations with a high probability of metformin use prior to randomization (type II diabetes or polycystic ovary syndrome) were excluded. Random-effects models with Mantel-Haenszel were used for subgroup analyses. Moreover, a Bayesian random-effects meta-regression was used to synthesize the evidence. In total, 3337 citations matched the search criteria. After evaluating the abstracts and full text review, 15 studies were included in the review. Metformin use was associated with a reduced risk of pregnancy induced hypertension when compared to insulin (RR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.37-0.85, I^ 2 =0, 1260 women) and a non-significantly reduced risk of preeclampsia (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.60-1.14, I^ 2 =0%, 1724 women). When compared to placebo, metformin use was associated with a non-significant reduction of preeclampsia (RR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.09-6.28, I^ 2 =86%, 840 women). Metformin use was also associated with a non-significant reduction of any HDP (RR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.41-1.25, I^ 2 =0, 556 women) when compared to glyburide. When studies were combined with Bayesian random-effects meta-regression using treatment type as a covariate, the posterior probabilities of metformin having a beneficial effect for the prevention of preeclampsia, pregnancy induced hypertension and any HDP were 92.7%, 92.8% and 99.2%, respectively when compared to any other treatment or placebo. There is a high probability that metformin use is associated with a reduced HDP incidence when compared to other treatments and placebo. The small number of studies included in the analysis, the low quality of evidence and the clinical heterogeneity preclude the generalization of these results to broader populations. Given the clinical importance of this topic and the magnitude of effect observed in this meta-analysis, further prospective trials are urgently needed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Trial-Type Dependent Frames of Reference for Value Comparison

PubMed Central

Hunt, Laurence T.; Woolrich, Mark W.; Rushworth, Matthew F. S.; Behrens, Timothy E. J.

2013-01-01

A central question in cognitive neuroscience regards the means by which options are compared and decisions are resolved during value-guided choice. It is clear that several component processes are needed; these include identifying options, a value-based comparison, and implementation of actions to execute the decision. What is less clear is the temporal precedence and functional organisation of these component processes in the brain. Competing models of decision making have proposed that value comparison may occur in the space of alternative actions, or in the space of abstract goods. We hypothesized that the signals observed might in fact depend upon the framing of the decision. We recorded magnetoencephalographic data from humans performing value-guided choices in which two closely related trial types were interleaved. In the first trial type, each option was revealed separately, potentially causing subjects to estimate each action's value as it was revealed and perform comparison in action-space. In the second trial type, both options were presented simultaneously, potentially leading to comparison in abstract goods-space prior to commitment to a specific action. Distinct activity patterns (in distinct brain regions) on the two trial types demonstrated that the observed frame of reference used for decision making indeed differed, despite the information presented being formally identical, between the two trial types. This provides a potential reconciliation of conflicting accounts of value-guided choice. PMID:24068906

Effect of Cosmos caudatus (Ulam raja) supplementation in patients with type 2 diabetes: Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Cheng, Shi-Hui; Ismail, Amin; Anthony, Joseph; Ng, Ooi Chuan; Hamid, Azizah Abdul; Yusof, Barakatun-Nisak Mohd

2016-02-27

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a major health threat worldwide. Cosmos caudatus is one of the medicinal plants used to treat type 2 diabetes. Therefore, this study aims to determine the effectiveness and safety of C. caudatus in patients with type 2 diabetes. Metabolomic approach will be carried out to compare the metabolite profiles between C. Caudatus treated diabetic patients and diabetic controls. This is a single-center, randomized, controlled, two-arm parallel design clinical trial that will be carried out in a tertiary hospital in Malaysia. In this study, 100 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes will be enrolled. Diabetic patients who meet the eligibility criteria will be randomly allocated to two groups, which are diabetic C. caudatus treated(U) group and diabetic control (C) group. Primary and secondary outcomes will be measured at baseline, 4, 8, and 12 weeks. The serum and urine metabolome of both groups will be examined using proton NMR spectroscopy. The study will be the first randomized controlled trial to assess whether C. caudatus can confer beneficial effect in patients with type 2 diabetes. The results of this trial will provide clinical evidence on the effectiveness and safety of C. caudatus in patients with type 2 diabetes. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02322268.

Fingerprint Recognition with Identical Twin Fingerprints

PubMed Central

Yang, Xin; Tian, Jie

2012-01-01

Fingerprint recognition with identical twins is a challenging task due to the closest genetics-based relationship existing in the identical twins. Several pioneers have analyzed the similarity between twins' fingerprints. In this work we continue to investigate the topic of the similarity of identical twin fingerprints. Our study was tested based on a large identical twin fingerprint database that contains 83 twin pairs, 4 fingers per individual and six impressions per finger: 3984 (83*2*4*6) images. Compared to the previous work, our contributions are summarized as follows: (1) Two state-of-the-art fingerprint identification methods: P071 and VeriFinger 6.1 were used, rather than one fingerprint identification method in previous studies. (2) Six impressions per finger were captured, rather than just one impression, which makes the genuine distribution of matching scores more realistic. (3) A larger sample (83 pairs) was collected. (4) A novel statistical analysis, which aims at showing the probability distribution of the fingerprint types for the corresponding fingers of identical twins which have same fingerprint type, has been conducted. (5) A novel analysis, which aims at showing which finger from identical twins has higher probability of having same fingerprint type, has been conducted. Our results showed that: (a) A state-of-the-art automatic fingerprint verification system can distinguish identical twins without drastic degradation in performance. (b) The chance that the fingerprints have the same type from identical twins is 0.7440, comparing to 0.3215 from non-identical twins. (c) For the corresponding fingers of identical twins which have same fingerprint type, the probability distribution of five major fingerprint types is similar to the probability distribution for all the fingers' fingerprint type. (d) For each of four fingers of identical twins, the probability of having same fingerprint type is similar. PMID:22558204

Fingerprint recognition with identical twin fingerprints.

PubMed

Tao, Xunqiang; Chen, Xinjian; Yang, Xin; Tian, Jie

2012-01-01

Fingerprint recognition with identical twins is a challenging task due to the closest genetics-based relationship existing in the identical twins. Several pioneers have analyzed the similarity between twins' fingerprints. In this work we continue to investigate the topic of the similarity of identical twin fingerprints. Our study was tested based on a large identical twin fingerprint database that contains 83 twin pairs, 4 fingers per individual and six impressions per finger: 3984 (83*2*4*6) images. Compared to the previous work, our contributions are summarized as follows: (1) Two state-of-the-art fingerprint identification methods: P071 and VeriFinger 6.1 were used, rather than one fingerprint identification method in previous studies. (2) Six impressions per finger were captured, rather than just one impression, which makes the genuine distribution of matching scores more realistic. (3) A larger sample (83 pairs) was collected. (4) A novel statistical analysis, which aims at showing the probability distribution of the fingerprint types for the corresponding fingers of identical twins which have same fingerprint type, has been conducted. (5) A novel analysis, which aims at showing which finger from identical twins has higher probability of having same fingerprint type, has been conducted. Our results showed that: (a) A state-of-the-art automatic fingerprint verification system can distinguish identical twins without drastic degradation in performance. (b) The chance that the fingerprints have the same type from identical twins is 0.7440, comparing to 0.3215 from non-identical twins. (c) For the corresponding fingers of identical twins which have same fingerprint type, the probability distribution of five major fingerprint types is similar to the probability distribution for all the fingers' fingerprint type. (d) For each of four fingers of identical twins, the probability of having same fingerprint type is similar.

[Optimizing the managment of patients with diabetes mellitus: selected clinical trials from the 2004 Congress of the American Diabetes Association].

PubMed

Scheen, A J; Radermecker, R P; Philips, J C

2004-06-01

The 64th scientific congress of the American Diabetes Association had a special session devoted to the presentation of the results from three clinical trials: 1) the first multicentre international trial of pancreatic islet transplantation according to the so-called Edmonton protocol with the primary endpoint of restoring insulin independence in type 1 diabetic patients; 2) three pivotal studies of 30 weeks testing both the efficacy and safety of exenatide (exendin-4), a new insulin secretagogue that is a long-acting analogue of glucagon-like peptide-1, in patients with type 2 diabetes treated with either metformin, or a sulfonylurea, or a metformin-sulfonylurea combination; and 3) the "Collaborative AtoRvastatin Diabetes Study" (CARDS), a placebo-controlled primary prevention trial of cardiovascular complications using atorvastatin 10 mg in 2 838 at risk patients with type 2 diabetes. The main results and conclusions of these trials are briefly presented as they open new perspectives in the management of patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Multimodal manual therapy vs. pharmacological care for management of tension type headache: A meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Mesa-Jiménez, Juan A; Lozano-López, Cristina; Angulo-Díaz-Parreño, Santiago; Rodríguez-Fernández, Ángel L; De-la-Hoz-Aizpurua, Jose L; Fernández-de-Las-Peñas, Cesar

2015-12-01

Manual therapies are generally requested by patients with tension type headache. To compare the efficacy of multimodal manual therapy vs. pharmacological care for the management of tension type headache pain by conducting a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED, CINAHL, EBSCO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Collaboration Trials Register, PEDro and SCOPUS were searched from their inception until June 2014. All randomized controlled trials comparing any manual therapy vs. medication care for treating tension type headache adults were included. Data were extracted and methodological quality assessed independently by two reviewers. We pooled headache frequency as the main outcome and also intensity and duration. The weighted mean difference between manual therapy and pharmacological care was used to determine effect sizes. Five randomized controlled trials met our inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Pooled analyses found that manual therapies were more effective than pharmacological care in reducing frequency (weighted mean difference -0.8036, 95% confidence interval -1.66 to -0.44; three trials), intensity (weighted mean difference -0.5974, 95% confidence interval -0.8875 to -0.3073; five trials) and duration (weighted mean difference -0.5558, 95% confidence interval -0.9124 to -0.1992; three trials) of the headache immediately after treatment. No differences were found at longer follow-up for headache intensity (weighted mean difference -0.3498, 95% confidence interval -1.106 to 0.407; three trials). Manual therapies were associated with moderate effectiveness at short term, but similar effectiveness at longer follow-up for reducing headache frequency, intensity and duration in tension type headache than pharmacological medical drug care. However, due to the heterogeneity of the interventions, these results should be considered with caution at this stage. © International Headache Society 2015.

[Demonstrating patient safety requires acceptance of a broader scientific palette].

PubMed

Leistikow, I

2017-01-01

It is high time the medical community recognised that patient-safety research can be assessed using other scientific methods than the traditional medical ones. There is often a fundamental mismatch between the methodology of patient-safety research and the methodology used to assess the quality of this research. One example is research into the reliability and validity of record review as a method for detecting adverse events. This type of research is based on logical positivism, while record review itself is based on social constructivism. Record review does not lead to "one truth": adverse events are not measured on the basis of the records themselves, but by weighing the probability of certain situations being classifiable as adverse events. Healthcare should welcome behavioural and social sciences to its scientific palette. Restricting ourselves to the randomised control trial paradigm is short-sighted and dangerous; it deprives patients of much-needed improvements in safety.

What's in a title? An assessment of whether randomized controlled trial in a title means that it is one.

PubMed

Koletsi, Despina; Pandis, Nikolaos; Polychronopoulou, Argy; Eliades, Theodore

2012-06-01

In this study, we aimed to investigate whether studies published in orthodontic journals and titled as randomized clinical trials are truly randomized clinical trials. A second objective was to explore the association of journal type and other publication characteristics on correct classification. American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, European Journal of Orthodontics, Angle Orthodontist, Journal of Orthodontics, Orthodontics and Craniofacial Research, World Journal of Orthodontics, Australian Orthodontic Journal, and Journal of Orofacial Orthopedics were hand searched for clinical trials labeled in the title as randomized from 1979 to July 2011. The data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, and univariable and multivariable examinations of statistical associations via ordinal logistic regression modeling (proportional odds model). One hundred twelve trials were identified. Of the included trials, 33 (29.5%) were randomized clinical trials, 52 (46.4%) had an unclear status, and 27 (24.1%) were not randomized clinical trials. In the multivariable analysis among the included journal types, year of publication, number of authors, multicenter trial, and involvement of statistician were significant predictors of correctly classifying a study as a randomized clinical trial vs unclear and not a randomized clinical trial. From 112 clinical trials in the orthodontic literature labeled as randomized clinical trials, only 29.5% were identified as randomized clinical trials based on clear descriptions of appropriate random number generation and allocation concealment. The type of journal, involvement of a statistician, multicenter trials, greater numbers of authors, and publication year were associated with correct clinical trial classification. This study indicates the need of clear and accurate reporting of clinical trials and the need for educating investigators on randomized clinical trial methodology. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Phase II cancer clinical trials for biomarker-guided treatments.

PubMed

Jung, Sin-Ho

2018-01-01

The design and analysis of cancer clinical trials with biomarker depend on various factors, such as the phase of trials, the type of biomarker, whether the used biomarker is validated or not, and the study objectives. In this article, we demonstrate the design and analysis of two Phase II cancer clinical trials, one with a predictive biomarker and the other with an imaging prognostic biomarker. Statistical testing methods and their sample size calculation methods are presented for each trial. We assume that the primary endpoint of these trials is a time to event variable, but this concept can be used for any type of endpoint.

Efficacy of human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine against cervical infection and precancer caused by oncogenic HPV types (PATRICIA): final analysis of a double-blind, randomised study in young women.

PubMed

Paavonen, J; Naud, P; Salmerón, J; Wheeler, C M; Chow, S-N; Apter, D; Kitchener, H; Castellsague, X; Teixeira, J C; Skinner, S R; Hedrick, J; Jaisamrarn, U; Limson, G; Garland, S; Szarewski, A; Romanowski, B; Aoki, F Y; Schwarz, T F; Poppe, W A J; Bosch, F X; Jenkins, D; Hardt, K; Zahaf, T; Descamps, D; Struyf, F; Lehtinen, M; Dubin, G

2009-07-25

The human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine was immunogenic, generally well tolerated, and effective against HPV-16 or HPV-18 infections, and associated precancerous lesions in an event-triggered interim analysis of the phase III randomised, double-blind, controlled PApilloma TRIal against Cancer In young Adults (PATRICIA). We now assess the vaccine efficacy in the final event-driven analysis. Women (15-25 years) were vaccinated at months 0, 1, and 6. Analyses were done in the according-to-protocol cohort for efficacy (ATP-E; vaccine, n=8093; control, n=8069), total vaccinated cohort (TVC, included all women receiving at least one vaccine dose, regardless of their baseline HPV status; represents the general population, including those who are sexually active; vaccine, n=9319; control, n=9325), and TVC-naive (no evidence of oncogenic HPV infection at baseline; represents women before sexual debut; vaccine, n=5822; control, n=5819). The primary endpoint was to assess vaccine efficacy against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2+ (CIN2+) that was associated with HPV-16 or HPV-18 in women who were seronegative at baseline, and DNA negative at baseline and month 6 for the corresponding type (ATP-E). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00122681. Mean follow-up was 34.9 months (SD 6.4) after the third dose. Vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ associated with HPV-16/18 was 92.9% (96.1% CI 79.9-98.3) in the primary analysis and 98.1% (88.4-100) in an analysis in which probable causality to HPV type was assigned in lesions infected with multiple oncogenic types (ATP-E cohort). Vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ irrespective of HPV DNA in lesions was 30.4% (16.4-42.1) in the TVC and 70.2% (54.7-80.9) in the TVC-naive. Corresponding values against CIN3+ were 33.4% (9.1-51.5) in the TVC and 87.0% (54.9-97.7) in the TVC-naive. Vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ associated with 12 non-vaccine oncogenic types was 54.0% (34.0-68.4; ATP-E). Individual cross-protection against CIN2+ associated with HPV-31, HPV-33, and HPV-45 was seen in the TVC. The HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine showed high efficacy against CIN2+ associated with HPV-16/18 and non-vaccine oncogenic HPV types and substantial overall effect in cohorts that are relevant to universal mass vaccination and catch-up programmes. GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals.

Nutritional supplements for people being treated for active tuberculosis.

PubMed

Grobler, Liesl; Nagpal, Sukrti; Sudarsanam, Thambu D; Sinclair, David

2016-06-29

Tuberculosis and malnutrition are linked in a complex relationship. Tuberculosis may cause undernutrition through increased metabolic demands and decreased intake, and nutritional deficiencies may worsen the disease, or delay recovery by depressing important immune functions. At present, there is no evidence-based nutritional guidance for adults and children being treated for tuberculosis. To assess the effects of oral nutritional supplements in people being treated with antituberculous drug therapy for active tuberculosis. We searched the Cochrane Infectious Disease Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; Issue 1, 2016), MEDLINE (from 1946 to 4 February 2016), EMBASE (from 1980 to 4 February 2016), LILACS (from 1982 to 4 February 2016), the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT), the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), and the Indian Journal of Tuberculosis up to 4 February 2016, and checked the reference lists of all included studies. Randomized controlled trials that compared any oral nutritional supplement given for at least four weeks with no nutritional intervention, placebo, or dietary advice only for people being treated for active tuberculosis. The primary outcomes of interest were all-cause death, and cure at six and 12 months. Two review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, and extracted data and assessed the risk of bias in the included trials. We presented the results as risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous variables, and mean differences (MD) for continuous variables, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Where appropriate, we pooled data from trials with similar interventions and outcomes. We assessed the quality of the evidence using the Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. Thirty-five trials, including 8283 participants, met the inclusion criteria of this review. Macronutrient supplementationSix trials assessed the provision of free food, or high-energy supplements. Only two trials measured total dietary intake, and in both trials the intervention increased calorie consumption compared to controls.The available trials were too small to reliably prove or exclude clinically important benefits on mortality (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.10 to 1.20; four trials, 567 participants, very low quality evidence), cure (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.41; one trial, 102 participants, very low quality evidence), or treatment completion (data not pooled; two trials, 365 participants, very low quality evidence).Supplementation probably produces a modest increase in weight gain during treatment for active tuberculosis, although this was not seen consistently across all trials (data not pooled; five trials, 883 participants, moderate quality evidence). Two small studies provide some evidence that quality of life may also be improved but the trials were too small to have much confidence in the result (data not pooled; two trials, 134 participants, low quality evidence). Micronutrient supplementationSix trials assessed multi-micronutrient supplementation in doses up to 10 times the dietary reference intake, and 18 trials assessed single or dual micronutrient supplementation.Routine multi-micronutrient supplementation may have little or no effect on mortality in HIV-negative people with tuberculosis (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.6; four trials, 1219 participants, low quality evidence), or HIV-positive people who are not taking antiretroviral therapy (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.23; three trials, 1429 participants, moderate quality evidence). There is insufficient evidence to know if supplementation improves cure (no trials), treatment completion (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.04; one trial, 302 participants, very low quality evidence), or the proportion of people who remain sputum positive during the first eight weeks (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.35; two trials, 1020 participants, very low quality evidence). However, supplementation may have little or no effect on weight gain during treatment (data not pooled; five trials, 2940 participants, low quality evidence), and no studies have assessed the effect on quality of life.Plasma levels of vitamin A appear to increase following initiation of tuberculosis treatment regardless of supplementation. In contrast, supplementation probably does improve plasma levels of zinc, vitamin D, vitamin E, and selenium, but this has not been shown to have clinically important benefits. Of note, despite multiple studies of vitamin D supplementation in different doses, statistically significant benefits on sputum conversion have not been demonstrated. There is currently insufficient research to know whether routinely providing free food, or energy supplements improves tuberculosis treatment outcomes, but it probably improves weight gain in some settings.Although blood levels of some vitamins may be low in people starting treatment for active tuberculosis, there is currently no reliable evidence that routinely supplementing above recommended daily amounts has clinical benefits.

Tuberculosis in a South African prison – a transmission modelling analysis

PubMed Central

Johnstone-Robertson, Simon; Lawn, Stephen D; Welte, Alex; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Wood, Robin

2015-01-01

Background Prisons are recognised internationally as institutions with very high tuberculosis (TB) burdens where transmission is predominantly determined by contact between infectious and susceptible prisoners. A recent South African court case described the conditions under which prisoners awaiting trial were kept. With the use of these data, a mathematical model was developed to explore the interactions between incarceration conditions and TB control measures. Methods Cell dimensions, cell occupancy, lock-up time, TB incidence and treatment delays were derived from court evidence and judicial reports. Using the Wells-Riley equation and probability analyses of contact between prisoners, we estimated the current TB transmission probability within prison cells, and estimated transmission probabilities of improved levels of case finding in combination with implementation of national and international minimum standards for incarceration. Results Levels of overcrowding (230%) in communal cells and poor TB case finding result in annual TB transmission risks of 90% per annum. Implementing current national or international cell occupancy recommendations would reduce TB transmission probabilities by 30% and 50%, respectively. Improved passive case finding, modest ventilation increase or decreased lock-up time would minimally impact on transmission if introduced individually. However, active case finding together with implementation of minimum national and international standards of incarceration could reduce transmission by 50% and 94%, respectively. Conclusions Current conditions of detention for awaiting-trial prisoners are highly conducive for spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB. Combinations of simple well-established scientific control measures should be implemented urgently. PMID:22272961

For what applications can probability and non-probability sampling be used?

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; T. G. Gregoire; J. P. Weyer

2001-01-01

Almost any type of sample has some utility when estimating population quantities. The focus in this paper is to indicate what type or combination of types of sampling can be used in various situations ranging from a sample designed to establish cause-effect or legal challenge to one involving a simple subjective judgment. Several of these methods have little or no...

Exercise for women receiving adjuvant therapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Furmaniak, Anna C; Menig, Matthias; Markes, Martina H

2016-09-21

A huge clinical research database on adjuvant cancer treatment has verified improvements in breast cancer outcomes such as recurrence and mortality rates. On the other hand, adjuvant and neoadjuvant therapy with chemotherapy and radiotherapy impacts on quality of life due to substantial short- and long-term side effects. A number of studies have evaluated the effect of exercise interventions on those side effects. This is an updated version of the original Cochrane review published in 2006. The original review identified some benefits of physical activity on physical fitness and the resulting capacity for performing activities of daily life. It also identified a lack of evidence for other outcomes, providing clear justification for an updated review. To assess the effect of aerobic or resistance exercise interventions during adjuvant treatment for breast cancer on treatment-related side effects such as physical deterioration, fatigue, diminished quality of life, depression, and cognitive dysfunction. We carried out an updated search in the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group Specialised Register (30 March 2015), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (Issue 2, 2015), MEDLINE (1966 to 30 March 2015), and EMBASE (1966 to 30 March 2015). We did not update the original searches in CINAHL (1982 to 2004), SPORTDiscus (1975 to 2004), PsycINFO (1872 to 2003), SIGLE (1880 to 2004), and ProQuest Digital Dissertations (1861 to 2004). We searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov for ongoing trials on 30 March 2015. We screened references in relevant reviews and published clinical trials. We included randomised controlled trials that examined aerobic or resistance exercise or both in women undergoing adjuvant treatment for breast cancer. Published and unpublished trials were eligible. Two review authors independently performed data extraction, assessed trials, and graded the methodological quality using Cochrane's 'Risk of bias' tool. Any disagreements were resolved through discussion or by consulting the third review author. We entered data into Review Manager for analysis. For outcomes assessed with a variety of instruments, we used the standardised mean difference (SMD) as a summary statistic for meta-analysis; for those assessed with the same instrument, we used the mean difference (MD). For this 2015 update we included a total of 32 studies with 2626 randomised women, 8 studies from the original search and 24 studies from the updated search. We found evidence that physical exercise during adjuvant treatment for breast cancer probably improves physical fitness (SMD 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25 to 0.59; 15 studies; 1310 women; moderate-quality evidence) and slightly reduces fatigue (SMD -0.28, 95% CI -0.41 to -0.16; 19 studies; 1698 women; moderate-quality evidence). Exercise may lead to little or no improvement in health-related quality of life (MD 1.10, 95% CI -5.28 to 7.48; 1 study; 68 women; low-quality evidence), a slight improvement in cancer site-specific quality of life (MD 4.24, 95% CI -1.81 to 10.29; 4 studies; 262 women; low-quality evidence), and an improvement in cognitive function (MD -11.55, 95% CI -22.06 to -1.05; 2 studies; 213 women; low-quality evidence). Exercise probably leads to little or no difference in cancer-specific quality of life (SMD 0.12, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.25; 12 studies; 1012 women; moderate-quality evidence) and little or no difference in depression (SMD -0.15, 95% CI -0.30 to 0.01; 5 studies; 674 women; moderate-quality evidence). Evidence for other outcomes ranged from low to moderate quality. Seven trials reported a very small number of adverse events. Exercise during adjuvant treatment for breast cancer can be regarded as a supportive self care intervention that probably results in less fatigue, improved physical fitness, and little or no difference in cancer-specific quality of life and depression. Exercise may also slightly improve cancer site-specific quality of life and cognitive function, while it may result in little or no difference in health-related quality of life. This review is based on trials with a considerable degree of clinical heterogeneity regarding adjuvant cancer treatments and exercise interventions. Due to the difficulty of blinding exercise trials, all included trials were at high risk for performance bias. Furthermore, the majority of trials were at high risk for detection bias, largely due to most outcomes being self reported.The findings of the updated review have enabled us to make a more precise conclusion that both aerobic and resistance exercise can be regarded as beneficial for individuals with adjuvant therapy-related side effects. Further research is required to determine the optimal type, intensity, and timing of an exercise intervention. Furthermore, long-term evaluation is required due to possible long-term side effects of adjuvant treatment.

Short-term adaptation of saccades does not affect smooth pursuit eye movement initiation.

PubMed

Sun, Zongpeng; Smilgin, Aleksandra; Junker, Marc; Dicke, Peter W; Thier, Peter

2017-08-01

Scrutiny of the visual environment requires saccades that shift gaze to objects of interest. In case the object should be moving, smooth pursuit eye movements (SPEM) try to keep the image of the object within the confines of the fovea in order to ensure sufficient time for its analysis. Both saccades and SPEM can be adaptively changed by the experience of insufficiencies, compromising the precision of saccades or the minimization of object image slip in the case of SPEM. As both forms of adaptation rely on the cerebellar oculomotor vermis (OMV), most probably deploying a shared neuronal machinery, one might expect that the adaptation of one type of eye movement should affect the kinematics of the other. In order to test this expectation, we subjected two monkeys to a standard saccadic adaption paradigm with SPEM test trials at the end and, alternatively, the same two monkeys plus a third one to a random saccadic adaptation paradigm with interleaved trials of SPEM. In contrast to our expectation, we observed at best marginal transfer which, moreover, had little consistency across experiments and subjects. The lack of consistent transfer of saccadic adaptation decisively constrains models of the implementation of oculomotor learning in the OMV, suggesting an extensive separation of saccade- and SPEM-related synapses on P-cell dendritic trees.

Women and heart disease: the role of diabetes and hyperglycemia.

PubMed

Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Giardina, Elsa-Grace V; Gitt, Anselm K; Gudat, Uwe; Steinberg, Helmut O; Tschoepe, Diethelm

2004-05-10

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the primary cause of death in women, and women with type 2 diabetes mellitus are at greater risk of CVD compared with nondiabetic women. The increment in risk attributable to diabetes is greater in women than in men. The extent to which hyperglycemia contributes to heart disease risk has been examined in observational studies and clinical trials, although most included only men or did not analyze sex differences. The probable adverse influence of hyperglycemia is potentially mediated by impaired endothelial function, and/or by other mechanisms. Beyond high blood glucose level, a number of other common risk factors for CVD, including hypertension, dyslipidemia, and cigarette smoking, are seen in women with diabetes and require special attention. Presentation and diagnosis of CVD may differ between women and men, regardless of the presence of diabetes. Recognizing the potential for atypical presentation of CVD in women and the limitations of common diagnostic tools are important in preventing unnecessary delay in initiating proper treatment. Based on what we know today, treatment of CVD should be at least as aggressive in women-and especially in those with diabetes-as it is in men. Future trials should generate specific data on CVD in women, either by design of female-only studies or by subgroup analysis by sex.

Concise Review: Process Development Considerations for Cell Therapy

PubMed Central

Brieva, Thomas; Raviv, Lior; Rowley, Jon; Niss, Knut; Brandwein, Harvey; Oh, Steve; Karnieli, Ohad

2015-01-01

The development of robust and well-characterized methods of production of cell therapies has become increasingly important as therapies advance through clinical trials toward approval. A successful cell therapy will be a consistent, safe, and effective cell product, regardless of the cell type or application. Process development strategies can be developed to gain efficiency while maintaining or improving safety and quality profiles. This review presents an introduction to the process development challenges of cell therapies and describes some of the tools available to address production issues. This article will provide a summary of what should be considered to efficiently advance a cellular therapy from the research stage through clinical trials and finally toward commercialization. The identification of the basic questions that affect process development is summarized in the target product profile, and considerations for process optimization are discussed. The goal is to identify potential manufacturing concerns early in the process so they may be addressed effectively and thus increase the probability that a therapy will be successful. Significance The present study contributes to the field of cell therapy by providing a resource for those transitioning a potential therapy from the research stage to clinical and commercial applications. It provides the necessary steps that, when followed, can result in successful therapies from both a clinical and commercial perspective. PMID:26315572

Prediction of truly random future events using analysis of prestimulus electroencephalographic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgart, Stephen L.; Franklin, Michael S.; Jimbo, Hiroumi K.; Su, Sharon J.; Schooler, Jonathan

2017-05-01

Our hypothesis is that pre-stimulus physiological data can be used to predict truly random events tied to perceptual stimuli (e.g., lights and sounds). Our experiment presents light and sound stimuli to a passive human subject while recording electrocortical potentials using a 32-channel Electroencephalography (EEG) system. For every trial a quantum random number generator (qRNG) chooses from three possible selections with equal probability: a light stimulus, a sound stimulus, and no stimulus. Time epochs are defined preceding and post-ceding each stimulus for which mean average potentials were computed across all trials for the three possible stimulus types. Data from three regions of the brain are examined. In all three regions mean potential for light stimuli was generally enhanced relative to baseline during the period starting approximately 2 seconds before the stimulus. For sound stimuli, mean potential decreased relative to baseline during the period starting approximately 2 seconds before the stimulus. These changes from baseline may indicated the presence of evoked potentials arising from the stimulus. A P200 peak was observed in data recorded from frontal electrodes. The P200 is a well-known potential arising from the brain's processing of visual stimuli and its presence represents a replication of a known neurological phenomenon.

Super learning to hedge against incorrect inference from arbitrary parametric assumptions in marginal structural modeling.

PubMed

Neugebauer, Romain; Fireman, Bruce; Roy, Jason A; Raebel, Marsha A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J

2013-08-01

Clinical trials are unlikely to ever be launched for many comparative effectiveness research (CER) questions. Inferences from hypothetical randomized trials may however be emulated with marginal structural modeling (MSM) using observational data, but success in adjusting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias typically relies on parametric modeling assumptions. If these assumptions are violated, inferences from MSM may be inaccurate. In this article, we motivate the application of a data-adaptive estimation approach called super learning (SL) to avoid reliance on arbitrary parametric assumptions in CER. Using the electronic health records data from adults with new-onset type 2 diabetes, we implemented MSM with inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimation to evaluate the effect of three oral antidiabetic therapies on the worsening of glomerular filtration rate. Inferences from IPW estimation were noticeably sensitive to the parametric assumptions about the associations between both the exposure and censoring processes and the main suspected source of confounding, that is, time-dependent measurements of hemoglobin A1c. SL was successfully implemented to harness flexible confounding and selection bias adjustment from existing machine learning algorithms. Erroneous IPW inference about clinical effectiveness because of arbitrary and incorrect modeling decisions may be avoided with SL. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Effect of litter type on prevalence and severity of pododermatitis in male broilers].

PubMed

Berk, Jutta

2009-01-01

During the course of two trial periods on broilers (Ross 308), the effects of 5 different types of litter (chopped straw, wood shavings, spelt glumes, Pelletinos, HygieneWood-Shavings) on the development of pododermatitis and animal performance (body weight, feed conversion, mortality) were investigated. Pelletinos are for sale under the name Pelletino Strohstreugranulat G. HygieneWood-Shavings are a special product that currently is not available on the market. Male broilers were kept under practical conditions (feeding, light program) for 35 days. Foot pad lesions could already be observed at the first assessment on their 7th day after hatching. Broilers kept on chopped straw showed in both trials the highest score (trial 1: 1.50; trial 2: 1.58). Animals reared on Pelletinos (trial 1: 0.59; trial 2: 0.17) followed by HygieneWood-Shavings (trial 1: 0.63; trial 2: 0.47), wood shavings (trial 1: 1.30; trial 2: 0.71) and spelt glumes (trial 1: 1.13, trial 2:0.93) showed significant lower lesions. During the second trial, the average body weights were significantly higher while feed conversion was lower.The mortality on the other hand showed no significant differences between the trials. Groups kept on Pelletinos showed the best foot pads and the highest body weights in both trials at the end of experiments. The investigation showed that the prevalence and the severity of pododermatitis as well as the performance could be influenced by various types of litter. Chopped straw which is standard for the broiler industry in Germany, seems to be the least suitable variant in our study.

Harms, benefits, and the nature of interventions in pragmatic clinical trials.

PubMed

Ali, Joseph; Andrews, Joseph E; Somkin, Carol P; Rabinovich, C Egla

2015-10-01

To produce evidence capable of informing healthcare decision making at all critical levels, pragmatic clinical trials are diverse both in terms of the type of intervention (medical, behavioral, and/or technological) and the target of intervention (patients, clinicians, and/or healthcare system processes). Patients and clinicians may be called on to participate as designers, investigators, intermediaries, or subjects of pragmatic clinical trials. Other members of the healthcare team, as well as the healthcare system itself, also may be affected directly or indirectly before, during, or after study implementation. This diversity in the types and targets of pragmatic clinical trial interventions has brought into focus the need to consider whether existing ethics and regulatory principles, policies, and procedures are appropriate for pragmatic clinical trials. Specifically, further examination is needed to identify how the types and targets of pragmatic clinical trial interventions may influence the assessment of net potential risk, understood as the balance of potential harms and benefits. In this article, we build on scholarship seeking to align ethics and regulatory requirements with potential research risks and propose an approach to the assessment of net risks that is sensitive to the diverse nature of pragmatic clinical trial interventions. We clarify the potential harms, burdens, benefits, and advantages of common types of pragmatic clinical trial interventions and discuss implications for patients, clinicians, and healthcare systems. © The Author(s) 2015.

Determine precipitation rates from visible and infrared satellite images of clouds by pattern recognition technique. Progress Report, 1 Jul. 1985 - 31 Mar. 1987 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinman, James A.; Garan, Louis

1987-01-01

A more advanced cloud pattern analysis algorithm was subsequently developed to take the shape and brightness of the various clouds into account in a manner that is more consistent with the human analyst's perception of GOES cloud imagery. The results of that classification scheme were compared with precipitation probabilities observed from ships of opportunity off the U.S. east coast to derive empirical regressions between cloud types and precipitation probability. The cloud morphology was then quantitatively and objectively used to map precipitation probabilities during two winter months during which severe cold air outbreaks were observed over the northwest Atlantic. Precipitation probabilities associated with various cloud types are summarized. Maps of precipitation probability derived from the cloud morphology analysis program for two months and the precipitation probability derived from thirty years of ship observation were observed.

Evidence-Based Medicine as a Tool for Undergraduate Probability and Statistics Education

PubMed Central

Masel, J.; Humphrey, P. T.; Blackburn, B.; Levine, J. A.

2015-01-01

Most students have difficulty reasoning about chance events, and misconceptions regarding probability can persist or even strengthen following traditional instruction. Many biostatistics classes sidestep this problem by prioritizing exploratory data analysis over probability. However, probability itself, in addition to statistics, is essential both to the biology curriculum and to informed decision making in daily life. One area in which probability is particularly important is medicine. Given the preponderance of pre health students, in addition to more general interest in medicine, we capitalized on students’ intrinsic motivation in this area to teach both probability and statistics. We use the randomized controlled trial as the centerpiece of the course, because it exemplifies the most salient features of the scientific method, and the application of critical thinking to medicine. The other two pillars of the course are biomedical applications of Bayes’ theorem and science and society content. Backward design from these three overarching aims was used to select appropriate probability and statistics content, with a focus on eliciting and countering previously documented misconceptions in their medical context. Pretest/posttest assessments using the Quantitative Reasoning Quotient and Attitudes Toward Statistics instruments are positive, bucking several negative trends previously reported in statistics education. PMID:26582236

Using information technology to improve the quality and efficiency of clinical trial research in academic medical centers.

PubMed

Hardison, C D; Schnetzer, T

1999-01-01

In the area of clinical trial research, academic medical centers (AMCs) need to create additional capacity and improve performance on vital indicators to attract more studies, as they are currently losing their share to stand-alone research sites. Through the utilization of information technology, AMCs will be in a better position to fend off the competitive threats to their clinical research dollars. Most AMCs are in an enviable position to leverage the value of information technology because of the existing people, processes, and technologies that probably already exist throughout the AMC. The challenge, then, is to deploy these resources in a different manner to support clinical trial research.

Method- and species-specific detection probabilities of fish occupancy in Arctic lakes: Implications for design and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haynes, Trevor B.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Whitman, Matthew; Schmutz, Joel A.

2013-01-01

Studies examining species occurrence often fail to account for false absences in field sampling. We investigate detection probabilities of five gear types for six fish species in a sample of lakes on the North Slope, Alaska. We used an occupancy modeling approach to provide estimates of detection probabilities for each method. Variation in gear- and species-specific detection probability was considerable. For example, detection probabilities for the fyke net ranged from 0.82 (SE = 0.05) for least cisco (Coregonus sardinella) to 0.04 (SE = 0.01) for slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). Detection probabilities were also affected by site-specific variables such as depth of the lake, year, day of sampling, and lake connection to a stream. With the exception of the dip net and shore minnow traps, each gear type provided the highest detection probability of at least one species. Results suggest that a multimethod approach may be most effective when attempting to sample the entire fish community of Arctic lakes. Detection probability estimates will be useful for designing optimal fish sampling and monitoring protocols in Arctic lakes.

Differences in reporting of analyses in internal company documents versus published trial reports: comparisons in industry-sponsored trials in off-label uses of gabapentin.

PubMed

Vedula, S Swaroop; Li, Tianjing; Dickersin, Kay

2013-01-01

Details about the type of analysis (e.g., intent to treat [ITT]) and definitions (i.e., criteria for including participants in the analysis) are necessary for interpreting a clinical trial's findings. Our objective was to compare the description of types of analyses and criteria for including participants in the publication (i.e., what was reported) with descriptions in the corresponding internal company documents (i.e., what was planned and what was done). Trials were for off-label uses of gabapentin sponsored by Pfizer and Parke-Davis, and documents were obtained through litigation. For each trial, we compared internal company documents (protocols, statistical analysis plans, and research reports, all unpublished), with publications. One author extracted data and another verified, with a third person verifying discordant items and a sample of the rest. Extracted data included the number of participants randomized and analyzed for efficacy, and types of analyses for efficacy and safety and their definitions (i.e., criteria for including participants in each type of analysis). We identified 21 trials, 11 of which were published randomized controlled trials, and that provided the documents needed for planned comparisons. For three trials, there was disagreement on the number of randomized participants between the research report and publication. Seven types of efficacy analyses were described in the protocols, statistical analysis plans, and publications, including ITT and six others. The protocol or publication described ITT using six different definitions, resulting in frequent disagreements between the two documents (i.e., different numbers of participants were included in the analyses). Descriptions of analyses conducted did not agree between internal company documents and what was publicly reported. Internal company documents provide extensive documentation of methods planned and used, and trial findings, and should be publicly accessible. Reporting standards for randomized controlled trials should recommend transparent descriptions and definitions of analyses performed and which study participants are excluded.

Persistence rates and detection probabilities of oiled king eider carcasses on St Paul Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, A.C.; Flint, Paul L.

1997-01-01

Following an oil spill off St Paul Island, Alaska in February 1996, persistence rates and detection probabilities of oiled king eider (Somateria spectabilis) carcasses were estimated using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. Carcass persistence rates varied by day, beach type and sex, while detection probabilities varied by day and beach type. Scavenging, wave action and weather influenced carcass persistence. The patterns of persistence differed on rock and sand beaches and female carcasses had a different persistence function than males. Weather, primarily snow storms, and degree of carcass scavenging, diminished carcass detectability. Detection probabilities on rock beaches were lower and more variable than on sand beaches. The combination of persistence rates and detection probabilities can be used to improve techniques of estimating total mortality.

Patients' views of consent in clinical trials for acute myocardial infarction: impact of trial design.

PubMed

Dickert, Neal W; Hendershot, Kristopher A; Speight, Candace D; Fehr, Alexandra E

2017-08-01

Seeking prospective informed consent is difficult in clinical trials for emergent conditions such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prior data suggest that enrolment decisions of patients are often poorly informed in AMI trials but that patients prefer to be asked permission before enrolment. It is unknown whether this is true across trial designs or in comparative effectiveness research (CER) with approved treatments. Structured interviews were conducted with 30 patients with AMI. Participants considered three scenarios: (1) a CER trial of approved antiplatelet drugs; (2) a placebo-controlled trial of a novel drug to reduce myocardial injury and (3) a CER trial of an intra-aortic balloon pump versus medication. Participants were asked their desired involvement in enrolment decisions and willingness to participate. Descriptive analysis was performed of Likert scale data, and qualitative descriptive analysis was performed of textual data. Across scenarios, most participants (73%-80%) preferred to be asked permission prior to trial enrolment. Reasons for involvement included wanting to be the decision maker and a desire for transparency. Willingness to enrol was affected by trial type. Fewer participants stated they would likely enrol in a CER procedural trial than in a CER trial of approved medications (p=0.012). These findings suggest that patients prefer prospective involvement in enrolment decisions to enrolment without consent across trial types. However, their desire to participate was affected by trial type. There is a need to develop and evaluate context-sensitive approaches to consent in AMI trials that account for both the acuity of the situation and trial characteristics. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

An extended car-following model considering random safety distance with different probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jufeng; Sun, Fengxin; Cheng, Rongjun; Ge, Hongxia; Wei, Qi

2018-02-01

Because of the difference in vehicle type or driving skill, the driving strategy is not exactly the same. The driving speeds of the different vehicles may be different for the same headway. Since the optimal velocity function is just determined by the safety distance besides the maximum velocity and headway, an extended car-following model accounting for random safety distance with different probabilities is proposed in this paper. The linear stable condition for this extended traffic model is obtained by using linear stability theory. Numerical simulations are carried out to explore the complex phenomenon resulting from multiple safety distance in the optimal velocity function. The cases of multiple types of safety distances selected with different probabilities are presented. Numerical results show that the traffic flow with multiple safety distances with different probabilities will be more unstable than that with single type of safety distance, and will result in more stop-and-go phenomena.

Quantifying the bias in the estimated treatment effect in randomized trials having interim analyses and a rule for early stopping for futility.

PubMed

Walter, S D; Han, H; Briel, M; Guyatt, G H

2017-04-30

In this paper, we consider the potential bias in the estimated treatment effect obtained from clinical trials, the protocols of which include the possibility of interim analyses and an early termination of the study for reasons of futility. In particular, by considering the conditional power at an interim analysis, we derive analytic expressions for various parameters of interest: (i) the underestimation or overestimation of the treatment effect in studies that stop for futility; (ii) the impact of the interim analyses on the estimation of treatment effect in studies that are completed, i.e. that do not stop for futility; (iii) the overall estimation bias in the estimated treatment effect in a single study with such a stopping rule; and (iv) the probability of stopping at an interim analysis. We evaluate these general expressions numerically for typical trial scenarios. Results show that the parameters of interest depend on a number of factors, including the true underlying treatment effect, the difference that the trial is designed to detect, the study power, the number of planned interim analyses and what assumption is made about future data to be observed after an interim analysis. Because the probability of stopping early is small for many practical situations, the overall bias is often small, but a more serious issue is the potential for substantial underestimation of the treatment effect in studies that actually stop for futility. We also consider these ideas using data from an illustrative trial that did stop for futility at an interim analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The use of intermediate endpoints in the design of type 1 diabetes prevention trials.

PubMed

Krischer, Jeffrey P

2013-09-01

This paper presents a rationale for the selection of intermediate endpoints to be used in the design of type 1 diabetes prevention clinical trials. Relatives of individuals diagnosed with type 1 diabetes were enrolled on the TrialNet Natural History Study and screened for diabetes-related autoantibodies. Those with two or more such autoantibodies were analysed with respect to increased HbA1c, decreased C-peptide following an OGTT, or abnormal OGTT values as intermediate markers of disease progression. Over 2 years, a 10% increase in HbA1c, and a 20% or 30% decrease in C-peptide from baseline, or progression to abnormal OGTT, occurred with a frequency between 20% and 41%. The 3- to 5-year risk of type 1 diabetes following each intermediate endpoint was high, namely 47% to 84%. The lower the incidence of the endpoint being reached, the higher the risk of diabetes. A diabetes prevention trial using these intermediate endpoints would require a 30% to 50% smaller sample size than one using type 1 diabetes as the endpoint. The use of an intermediate endpoint in diabetes prevention is based on the generally held view of disease progression from initial occurrence of autoantibodies through successive immunological and metabolic changes to manifest type 1 diabetes. Thus, these markers are suitable for randomised phase 2 trials, which can more rapidly screen promising new therapies, allowing them to be subsequently confirmed in definitive phase 3 trials.

The use of intermediate endpoints in the design of type 1 diabetes prevention trials

PubMed Central

Krischer, Jeffrey P.

2013-01-01

Aims/hypothesis This paper presents a rationale for the selection of intermediate endpoints to be used in the design of type 1 diabetes prevention clinical trials. Methods Relatives of individuals diagnosed with type 1 diabetes were enrolled on the TrialNet Natural History Study and screened for diabetes-related autoantibodies. Those with two or more such autoantibodies were analysed with respect to increased HbA1c, decreased C-peptide following an OGTT, or abnormal OGTT values as intermediate markers of disease progression. Results Over 2 years, a 10% increase in HbA1c, and a 20% or 30% decrease in C-peptide from baseline, or progression to abnormal OGTT, occurred with a frequency between 20% and 41%. The 3- to 5-year risk of type 1 diabetes following each intermediate endpoint was high, namely 47% to 84%. The lower the incidence of the endpoint being reached, the higher the risk of diabetes. A diabetes prevention trial using these intermediate endpoints would require a 30% to 50% smaller sample size than one using type 1 diabetes as the endpoint. Conclusions/interpretation The use of an intermediate endpoint in diabetes prevention is based on the generally held view of disease progression from initial occurrence of autoantibodies through successive immunological and metabolic changes to manifest type 1 diabetes. Thus, these markers are suitable for randomised phase 2 trials, which can more rapidly screen promising new therapies, allowing them to be subsequently confirmed in definitive phase 3 trials. PMID:23744306

The association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and Psychiatry as the specialty choice.

PubMed

Yang, Chong; Richard, George; Durkin, Martin

2016-02-06

The purpose of this pilot study is to examine the association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and prospective psychiatry residents. Forty-six American medical schools were contacted and asked to participate in this study. Data were collected and an aggregated list was compiled that included the following information: date of MBTI administration, academic year, MBTI form/version, residency match information and student demographic information. The data includes 835 American medical students who completed the MBTI survey and matched into a residency training program in the United States. All analyses were performed using R 3.1.2. The probability of an introvert matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of an extravert (p= 0.30). The probability of an intuitive individual matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a sensing type (p=0.20). The probability of a feeling type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a thinking type (p= 0.50). The probability of a perceiving type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a judging type (p= 0.60). Further analyses may elicit more accurate information regarding the personality profile of prospective psychiatry residents. The improvement in communication, team dynamics, mentor-mentee relationships and reduction in workplace conflicts are possible with the awareness of MBTI personality profiles.

The association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and Psychiatry as the specialty choice

PubMed Central

Richard, George; Durkin, Martin

2016-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this pilot study is to examine the association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and prospective psychiatry residents. Methods Forty-six American medical schools were contacted and asked to participate in this study. Data were collected and an aggregated list was compiled that included the following information: date of MBTI administration, academic year, MBTI form/version, residency match information and student demographic information. The data includes 835 American medical students who completed the MBTI survey and matched into a residency training program in the United States. All analyses were performed using R 3.1.2. Results The probability of an introvert matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of an extravert (p= 0.30). The probability of an intuitive individual matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a sensing type (p=0.20). The probability of a feeling type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a thinking type (p= 0.50). The probability of a perceiving type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a judging type (p= 0.60). Conclusions Further analyses may elicit more accurate information regarding the personality profile of prospective psychiatry residents. The improvement in communication, team dynamics, mentor-mentee relationships and reduction in workplace conflicts are possible with the awareness of MBTI personality profiles. PMID:26851600

Headache in Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension: Findings From the Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension Treatment Trial.

PubMed

Friedman, Deborah I; Quiros, Peter A; Subramanian, Prem S; Mejico, Luis J; Gao, Shan; McDermott, Michael; Wall, Michael

2017-09-01

To characterize the phenotype, headache-related disability, medical co-morbidities, use of symptomatic headache medications, and headache response to study interventions in the Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension Treatment Trial (IIHTT). Patients with untreated IIH and mild vision loss enrolled in the IIHTT and randomized to acetazolamide (ACZ) and weight loss or placebo (PLB) and weight loss had prospective assessment of headache disability using the Headache Impact Test-6 (HIT-6) questionnaire. Subjects with headache at the baseline visit were assigned a headache phenotype using the International Classification for Headache Disorders version 3 beta (ICHD-3b). Medication overuse was determined using the participants' reported medication use for the preceding month and ICHD-3b thresholds for diagnosing medication overuse headache. We investigated relationships between headache disability and various other clinical characteristics at baseline and at 6 months. Headache was present in 139 (84%) of the 165 enrollees at baseline. The most common headache phenotypes were migraine (52%), tension-type headache (22%), probable migraine (16%), and probable tension-type headache (4%). Fifty-one (37%) participants overused symptomatic medications at baseline, most frequently simple analgesics. A similar amount of improvement in the adjusted mean (± standard error) HIT-6 score occurred in the ACZ (-9.56 ± 1.05) and PLB groups (-9.11 ± 1.14) at 6 months (group difference -0.45, 95% CI -3.50 to 2.60, P = .77). Headache disability did not correlate with any of the studies, variables of interest, which included: the lumbar puncture opening pressure at baseline or at 6 months, body mass index, the amount of weight lost, papilledema grade, perimetric mean deviation, or the use of hormonal contraception. Headache disability was significantly associated with patient-reported quality of life in the physical, mental, and visual domains. Headache was common, of varied character, disabling, and associated with poorer quality of life in our cohort of patients with mild visual impairment. The lack of correlation between headache disability and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pressure at baseline and at the end of the randomized phase of the study implies that headache in IIH may be related to factors other than intracranial hypertension, and that specific headache treatment is needed in addition to therapies directed at lowering CSF pressure. © 2017 American Headache Society.

Long-term retention of a divided attention psycho-motor test combining choice reaction test and postural balance test: A preliminary study.

PubMed

Rossi, R; Pascolo, P B

2015-09-01

Driving in degraded psychophysical conditions, such as under the influence of alcohol or drugs but also in a state of fatigue or drowsiness, is a growing problem. The current roadside tests used for detecting drugs from drivers suffer various limitations, while impairment is subjective and does not necessarily correlate with drug metabolite concentration found in body fluids. This work is a validation step towards the study of feasibility of a novel test conceived to assess psychophysical conditions of individuals performing at-risk activities. Motor gestures, long-term retention and learning phase related to the protocol are analysed in unimpaired subjects. The protocol is a divided attention test, which combines a critical tracking test achieved with postural movements and a visual choice reaction test. Ten healthy subjects participated in a first set of trials and in a second set after about six months. Each session required the carrying out of the test for ten times in order to investigate learning effect and performance over repetitions. In the first set the subjects showed a learning trend up to the third trial, whilst in the second set of trials they showed motor retention. Nevertheless, the overall performance did not significantly improve. Gestures are probably retained due to the type of tasks and the way in which the instructions are conveyed to the subjects. Moreover, motor retention after a short training suggests that the protocol is easy to learn and understand. Implications for roadside test usage and comparison with current tests are also discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of botulinum toxin-A for musculoskeletal pain in patients with whiplash associated disorders [ISRCTN68653575

PubMed Central

Juan, Francisco J

2004-01-01

Background Whiplash associated disorder is commonly linked to motor vehicle accidents and sports injuries. Cervical injury is attributed to rapid extension followed by neck flexion. The exact pathophysiology of whiplash is uncertain but probably involves some degree of aberrant muscle spasms and may produce a wide range of symptoms. The most commonly prescribed pharmacological agents for initial treatment of whiplash-associated pain are oral muscle relaxants and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. However, potential systemic adverse effects limit these agents. Physical interventions such as mobilization, manipulation, and exercises have proved beneficial for pain and dysfunction but only on a time-limited basis. Little evidence suggests that physical therapy specifically aimed at the musculature (e.g., transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation, ultrasonography, heat, ice, and acupuncture) improves prognosis in acute whiplash associated disorder. A new approach to treatment is the use of botulinum toxin, which acts to reduce muscle spasms. Methods/design This is a prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trial and botulinum toxin-A (Botox®) injections will be compared with placebo injections. The primary objective is to determine the efficacy of Botox® in the management of musculoskeletal pain in whiplash associated disorders. Discussion Botulinum toxin type-A toxin has been studied in small trials on whiplash associated disorder patients and has generally been found to relieve pain and improve range of motion. Specifically, we seek to assess the efficacy of Botox® in reducing pain and to improve the cervical spine range of movement, during the 6-month trial period. PMID:15018625

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, G. M.; Bradley, P. G.

1971-01-01

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Automating the application of smart materials for protein crystallization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khurshid, Sahir; Govada, Lata; EL-Sharif, Hazim F.

2015-03-01

The first semi-liquid, non-protein nucleating agent for automated protein crystallization trials is described. This ‘smart material’ is demonstrated to induce crystal growth and will provide a simple, cost-effective tool for scientists in academia and industry. The fabrication and validation of the first semi-liquid nonprotein nucleating agent to be administered automatically to crystallization trials is reported. This research builds upon prior demonstration of the suitability of molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs; known as ‘smart materials’) for inducing protein crystal growth. Modified MIPs of altered texture suitable for high-throughput trials are demonstrated to improve crystal quality and to increase the probability of successmore » when screening for suitable crystallization conditions. The application of these materials is simple, time-efficient and will provide a potent tool for structural biologists embarking on crystallization trials.« less

Quantitative comparison of randomization designs in sequential clinical trials based on treatment balance and allocation randomness.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenle; Weng, Yanqiu; Wu, Qi; Palesch, Yuko

2012-01-01

To evaluate the performance of randomization designs under various parameter settings and trial sample sizes, and identify optimal designs with respect to both treatment imbalance and allocation randomness, we evaluate 260 design scenarios from 14 randomization designs under 15 sample sizes range from 10 to 300, using three measures for imbalance and three measures for randomness. The maximum absolute imbalance and the correct guess (CG) probability are selected to assess the trade-off performance of each randomization design. As measured by the maximum absolute imbalance and the CG probability, we found that performances of the 14 randomization designs are located in a closed region with the upper boundary (worst case) given by Efron's biased coin design (BCD) and the lower boundary (best case) from the Soares and Wu's big stick design (BSD). Designs close to the lower boundary provide a smaller imbalance and a higher randomness than designs close to the upper boundary. Our research suggested that optimization of randomization design is possible based on quantified evaluation of imbalance and randomness. Based on the maximum imbalance and CG probability, the BSD, Chen's biased coin design with imbalance tolerance method, and Chen's Ehrenfest urn design perform better than popularly used permuted block design, EBCD, and Wei's urn design. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The decision to conduct a head-to-head comparative trial: a game-theoretic analysis.

PubMed

Mansley, Edward C; Elbasha, Elamin H; Teutsch, Steven M; Berger, Marc L

2007-01-01

Recent Medicare legislation calls on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality to conduct research related to the comparative effectiveness of health care items and services, including prescription drugs. This reinforces earlier calls for head-to-head comparative trials of clinically relevant treatment alternatives. Using a game-theoretic model, the authors explore the decision of pharmaceutical companies to conduct such trials. The model suggests that an important factor affecting this decision is the potential loss in market share and profits following a result of inferiority or comparability. This hidden cost is higher for the market leader than the market follower, making it less likely that the leader will choose to conduct a trial. The model also suggests that in a full-information environment, it will never be the case that both firms choose to conduct such a trial. Furthermore, if market shares and the probability of proving superiority are similar for both firms, it is quite possible that neither firm will choose to conduct a trial. Finally, the results indicate that incentives that offset the direct cost of a trial can prevent a no-trial equilibrium, even when both firms face the possibility of an inferior outcome.

Time-to-Seizure Modeling of Lacosamide Used in Monotherapy in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Epilepsy.

PubMed

Lindauer, Andreas; Laveille, Christian; Stockis, Armel

2017-11-01

To quantify the relationship between exposure to lacosamide monotherapy and seizure probability, and to simulate the effect of changing the dose regimen. Structural time-to-event models for dropouts (not because of a lack of efficacy) and seizures were developed using data from 883 adult patients newly diagnosed with epilepsy and experiencing focal or generalized tonic-clonic seizures, participating in a trial (SP0993; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01243177) comparing the efficacy of lacosamide and carbamazepine controlled-release monotherapy. Lacosamide dropout and seizure models were used for simulating the effect of changing the initial target dose on seizure freedom. Repeated time-to-seizure data were described by a Weibull distribution with parameters estimated separately for the first and subsequent seizures. Daily area under the plasma concentration-time curve was related linearly to the log-hazard. Disease severity, expressed as the number of seizures during the 3 months before the trial (baseline), was a strong predictor of seizure probability: patients with 7-50 seizures at baseline had a 2.6-fold (90% confidence interval 2.01-3.31) higher risk of seizures compared with the reference two to six seizures. Simulations suggested that a 400-mg/day, rather than a 200-mg/day initial target dose for patients with seven or more seizures at baseline could potentially result in an additional 8% of seizure-free patients for 6 months at the last evaluated dose level. Patients receiving lacosamide had a slightly lower dropout risk compared with those receiving carbamazepine. Baseline disease severity was the most important predictor of seizure probability. Simulations suggest that an initial target dose >200 mg/day could potentially benefit patients with greater disease severity.

Total coliform and E. coli in public water systems using undisinfected ground water in the United States.

PubMed

Messner, Michael J; Berger, Philip; Javier, Julie

2017-06-01

Public water systems (PWSs) in the United States generate total coliform (TC) and Escherichia coli (EC) monitoring data, as required by the Total Coliform Rule (TCR). We analyzed data generated in 2011 by approximately 38,000 small (serving fewer than 4101 individuals) undisinfected public water systems (PWSs). We used statistical modeling to characterize a distribution of TC detection probabilities for each of nine groupings of PWSs based on system type (community, non-transient non-community, and transient non-community) and population served (less than 101, 101-1000 and 1001-4100 people). We found that among PWS types sampled in 2011, on average, undisinfected transient PWSs test positive for TC 4.3% of the time as compared with 3% for undisinfected non-transient PWSs and 2.5% for undisinfected community PWSs. Within each type of PWS, the smaller systems have higher median TC detection than the larger systems. All TC-positive samples were assayed for EC. Among TC-positive samples from small undisinfected PWSs, EC is detected in about 5% of samples, regardless of PWS type or size. We evaluated the upper tail of the TC detection probability distributions and found that significant percentages of some system types have high TC detection probabilities. For example, assuming the systems providing data are nationally-representative, then 5.0% of the ∼50,000 small undisinfected transient PWSs in the U.S. have TC detection probabilities of 20% or more. Communities with such high TC detection probabilities may have elevated risk of acute gastrointestinal (AGI) illness - perhaps as great or greater than the attributable risk to drinking water (6-22%) calculated for 14 Wisconsin community PWSs with much lower TC detection probabilities (about 2.3%, Borchardt et al., 2012). Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Muscle glycogen reduction in man: relationship between surface EMG activity and oxygen uptake kinetics during heavy exercise.

PubMed

Osborne, Mark A; Schneider, Donald A

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether muscle glycogen reduction prior to exercise would alter muscle fibre recruitment pattern and change either on-transient O2 uptake (VO2) kinetics or the VO2 slow component. Eight recreational cyclists (VO2peak, 55.6 +/- 1.3 ml kg (-1) min(-1)) were studied during 8 min of heavy constant-load cycling performed under control conditions (CON) and under conditions of reduced type I muscle glycogen content (GR). VO2 was measured breath-by-breath for the determination of VO2 kinetics using a double-exponential model with independent time delays. VO2 was higher in the GR trial compared to the CON trial as a result of augmented phase I and II amplitudes, with no difference between trials in the phase II time constant or the magnitude of the slow component. The mean power frequency (MPF) of electromyography activity for the vastus medialis increased over time during both trials, with a greater rate of increase observed in the GR trial compared to the CON trial. The results suggest that the recruitment of additional type II motor units contributed to the slow component in both trials. An increase in fat metabolism and augmented type II motor unit recruitment contributed to the higher VO2 in the GR trial. However, the greater rate of increase in the recruitment of type II motor units in the GR trial may not have been of sufficient magnitude to further elevate the slow component when VO2 was already high and approaching VO2peak .

The risk of extra-colonic, extra-endometrial cancer in the Lynch syndrome.

PubMed

Watson, Patrice; Vasen, Hans F A; Mecklin, Jukka-Pekka; Bernstein, Inge; Aarnio, Markku; Järvinen, Heikki J; Myrhøj, Torben; Sunde, Lone; Wijnen, Juul T; Lynch, Henry T

2008-07-15

Persons with the Lynch syndrome (LS) are at high risk for cancer, including cancers of the small bowel, stomach, upper urologic tract (renal pelvis and ureter), ovary, biliary tract and brain tumors, in addition to the more commonly observed colorectal and endometrial cancers. Cancer prevention strategies for these less common cancers require accurate, age-specific risk estimation. We pooled data from 4 LS research centers in a retrospective cohort study, to produce absolute incidence estimates for these cancer types, and to evaluate several potential risk modifiers. After elimination of 135 persons missing crucial information, cohort included 6,041 members of 261 families with LS-associated MLH1 or MSH2 mutations. All were either mutation carriers by test, probable mutation carriers (endometrial/colorectal cancer-affected), or first-degree relatives of these. Among mutation carriers and probable carriers, urologic tract cancer (N = 98) had an overall lifetime risk (to age 70) of 8.4% (95% CI: 6.6-10.8); risks were higher in males (p < 0.02) and members of MSH2 families (p < 0.0001). Ovarian cancer (N = 72) had an lifetime risk of 6.7% (95% CI: 5.3-9.1); risks were higher in women born after the median year of birth (p < 0.008) and in members of MSH2 families (p < 0.006). Brain tumors and cancers of the small bowel, stomach, breast and biliary tract were less common. Urologic tract cancer and ovarian cancer occur frequently enough in some LS subgroups to justify trials to evaluate promising prevention interventions. Other cancer types studied occur too infrequently to justify strenuous cancer control interventions. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The Risk of Extra-colonic, Extra-endometrial Cancer in the Lynch Syndrome

PubMed Central

Watson, Patrice; Vasen, Hans F.A.; Mecklin, Jukka-Pekka; Bernstein, Inge; Aarnio, Markku; Järvinen, Heikki J.; Myrhøj, Torben; Sunde, Lone; Wijnen, Juul T.; Lynch, Henry T.

2009-01-01

Persons with the Lynch syndrome (LS) are at high risk for cancer, including cancers of the small bowel, stomach, upper urologic tract (renal pelvis and ureter), ovary, biliary tract, and brain tumors, in addition to the more commonly observed colorectal and endometrial cancers. Cancer prevention strategies for these less-common cancers require accurate, age-specific risk estimation. We pooled data from four LS research centers in a retrospective cohort study, to produce absolute incidence estimates for these cancer types, and to evaluate several potential risk modifiers. After elimination of 135 persons missing crucial information, cohort included 6041 members of 261 families with LS-associated MLH1 or MSH2 mutations. All were either mutation carriers by test, probable mutation carriers (endometrial/colorectal cancer-affected), or first-degree relatives of these. Among mutation carriers and probable carriers, urologic tract cancer (N=98) had an overall lifetime risk (to age 70) of 8.4% (95%CI: 6.6–10.8); risks were higher in males (p<0.02) and members of MSH2 families (p<0.0001). Ovarian cancer (N=72) had an lifetime risk of 6.7% (95%CI: 5.3–9.1); risks were higher in women born after the median year of birth (p<0.008) and in members of MSH2 families (p<0.006). Brain tumors and cancers of the small bowel, stomach, breast, and biliary tract were less common. Urologic tract cancer and ovarian cancer occur frequently enough in some LS subgroups to justify trials to evaluate promising prevention interventions. Other cancer types studied occur too infrequently to justify strenuous cancer control interventions. PMID:18398828

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romero, Vicente; Bonney, Matthew; Schroeder, Benjamin

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a classmore » of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.« less

Probabilistic multiple sclerosis lesion classification based on modeling regional intensity variability and local neighborhood information.

PubMed

Harmouche, Rola; Subbanna, Nagesh K; Collins, D Louis; Arnold, Douglas L; Arbel, Tal

2015-05-01

In this paper, a fully automatic probabilistic method for multiple sclerosis (MS) lesion classification is presented, whereby the posterior probability density function over healthy tissues and two types of lesions (T1-hypointense and T2-hyperintense) is generated at every voxel. During training, the system explicitly models the spatial variability of the intensity distributions throughout the brain by first segmenting it into distinct anatomical regions and then building regional likelihood distributions for each tissue class based on multimodal magnetic resonance image (MRI) intensities. Local class smoothness is ensured by incorporating neighboring voxel information in the prior probability through Markov random fields. The system is tested on two datasets from real multisite clinical trials consisting of multimodal MRIs from a total of 100 patients with MS. Lesion classification results based on the framework are compared with and without the regional information, as well as with other state-of-the-art methods against the labels from expert manual raters. The metrics for comparison include Dice overlap, sensitivity, and positive predictive rates for both voxel and lesion classifications. Statistically significant improvements in Dice values ( ), for voxel-based and lesion-based sensitivity values ( ), and positive predictive rates ( and respectively) are shown when the proposed method is compared to the method without regional information, and to a widely used method [1]. This holds particularly true in the posterior fossa, an area where classification is very challenging. The proposed method allows us to provide clinicians with accurate tissue labels for T1-hypointense and T2-hyperintense lesions, two types of lesions that differ in appearance and clinical ramifications, and with a confidence level in the classification, which helps clinicians assess the classification results.

Patient reminder and recall interventions to improve immunization rates.

PubMed

Jacobson Vann, Julie C; Jacobson, Robert M; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; Asafu-Adjei, Josephine K; Szilagyi, Peter G

2018-01-18

Immunization rates for children and adults are rising, but coverage levels have not reached optimal goals. As a result, vaccine-preventable diseases still occur. In an era of increasing complexity of immunization schedules, rising expectations about the performance of primary care, and large demands on primary care providers, it is important to understand and promote interventions that work in primary care settings to increase immunization coverage. One common theme across immunization programs in many nations involves the challenge of implementing a population-based approach and identifying all eligible recipients, for example the children who should receive the measles vaccine. However, this issue is gradually being addressed through the availability of immunization registries and electronic health records. A second common theme is identifying the best strategies to promote high vaccination rates. Three types of strategies have been studied: (1) patient-oriented interventions, such as patient reminder or recall, (2) provider interventions, and (3) system interventions, such as school laws. One of the most prominent intervention strategies, and perhaps best studied, involves patient reminder or recall systems. This is an update of a previously published review. To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of various types of patient reminder and recall interventions to improve receipt of immunizations. We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL to January 2017. We also searched grey literature and trial registers to January 2017. We included randomized trials, controlled before and after studies, and interrupted time series evaluating immunization-focused patient reminder or recall interventions in children, adolescents, and adults who receive immunizations in any setting. We included no-intervention control groups, standard practice activities that did not include immunization patient reminder or recall, media-based activities aimed at promoting immunizations, or simple practice-based awareness campaigns. We included receipt of any immunizations as eligible outcome measures, excluding special travel immunizations. We excluded patients who were hospitalized for the duration of the study period. We used the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Group. We present results for individual studies as relative rates using risk ratios, and risk differences for randomized trials, and as absolute changes in percentage points for controlled before-after studies. We present pooled results for randomized trials using the random-effects model. The 75 included studies involved child, adolescent, and adult participants in outpatient, community-based, primary care, and other settings in 10 countries.Patient reminder or recall interventions, including telephone and autodialer calls, letters, postcards, text messages, combination of mail or telephone, or a combination of patient reminder or recall with outreach, probably improve the proportion of participants who receive immunization (risk ratio (RR) of 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23 to 1.35; risk difference of 8%) based on moderate certainty evidence from 55 studies with 138,625 participants.Three types of single-method reminders improve receipt of immunizations based on high certainty evidence: the use of postcards (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.30; eight studies; 27,734 participants), text messages (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.44; six studies; 7772 participants), and autodialer (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.32; five studies; 11,947 participants). Two types of single-method reminders probably improve receipt of immunizations based on moderate certainty evidence: the use of telephone calls (RR 1.75, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.54; seven studies; 9120 participants) and letters to patients (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.38; 27 studies; 81,100 participants).Based on high certainty evidence, reminders improve receipt of immunizations for childhood (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.29; risk difference of 8%; 23 studies; 31,099 participants) and adolescent vaccinations (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.42; risk difference of 7%; 10 studies; 30,868 participants). Reminders probably improve receipt of vaccinations for childhood influenza (RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.99; risk difference of 22%; five studies; 9265 participants) and adult influenza (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.43; risk difference of 9%; 15 studies; 59,328 participants) based on moderate certainty evidence. They may improve receipt of vaccinations for adult pneumococcus, tetanus, hepatitis B, and other non-influenza vaccinations based on low certainty evidence although the confidence interval includes no effect of these interventions (RR 2.08, 95% CI 0.91 to 4.78; four studies; 8065 participants). Patient reminder and recall systems, in primary care settings, are likely to be effective at improving the proportion of the target population who receive immunizations.

A comparison of the test-negative and the traditional case-control study designs for estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness under nonrandom vaccination.

PubMed

Shi, Meng; An, Qian; Ainslie, Kylie E C; Haber, Michael; Orenstein, Walter A

2017-12-08

As annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all U.S. persons aged 6 months or older, it is unethical to conduct randomized clinical trials to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Observational studies are being increasingly used to estimate VE. We developed a probability model for comparing the bias and the precision of VE estimates from two case-control designs: the traditional case-control (TCC) design and the test-negative (TN) design. In both study designs, acute respiratory illness (ARI) patients seeking medical care testing positive for influenza infection are considered cases. In the TN design, ARI patients seeking medical care who test negative serve as controls, while in the TCC design, controls are randomly selected individuals from the community who did not contract an ARI. Our model assigns each study participant a covariate corresponding to the person's health status. The probabilities of vaccination and of contracting influenza and non-influenza ARI depend on health status. Hence, our model allows non-random vaccination and confounding. In addition, the probability of seeking care for ARI may depend on vaccination and health status. We consider two outcomes of interest: symptomatic influenza (SI) and medically-attended influenza (MAI). If vaccination does not affect the probability of non-influenza ARI, then VE estimates from TN studies usually have smaller bias than estimates from TCC studies. We also found that if vaccinated influenza ARI patients are less likely to seek medical care than unvaccinated patients because the vaccine reduces symptoms' severity, then estimates of VE from both types of studies may be severely biased when the outcome of interest is SI. The bias is not present when the outcome of interest is MAI. The TN design produces valid estimates of VE if (a) vaccination does not affect the probabilities of non-influenza ARI and of seeking care against influenza ARI, and (b) the confounding effects resulting from non-random vaccination are similar for influenza and non-influenza ARI. Since the bias of VE estimates depends on the outcome against which the vaccine is supposed to protect, it is important to specify the outcome of interest when evaluating the bias.

Mixed-Meal Tolerance Test Versus Glucagon Stimulation Test for the Assessment of β-Cell Function in Therapeutic Trials in Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Greenbaum, Carla J.; Mandrup-Poulsen, Thomas; McGee, Paula Friedenberg; Battelino, Tadej; Haastert, Burkhard; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Pozzilli, Paolo; Lachin, John M.; Kolb, Hubert

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE—β-Cell function in type 1 diabetes clinical trials is commonly measured by C-peptide response to a secretagogue in either a mixed-meal tolerance test (MMTT) or a glucagon stimulation test (GST). The Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Research Group and the European C-peptide Trial (ECPT) Study Group conducted parallel randomized studies to compare the sensitivity, reproducibility, and tolerability of these procedures. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—In randomized sequences, 148 TrialNet subjects completed 549 tests with up to 2 MMTT and 2 GST tests on separate days, and 118 ECPT subjects completed 348 tests (up to 3 each) with either two MMTTs or two GSTs. RESULTS—Among individuals with up to 4 years’ duration of type 1 diabetes, >85% had measurable stimulated C-peptide values. The MMTT stimulus produced significantly higher concentrations of C-peptide than the GST. Whereas both tests were highly reproducible, the MMTT was significantly more so (R2 = 0.96 for peak C-peptide response). Overall, the majority of subjects preferred the MMTT, and there were few adverse events. Some older subjects preferred the shorter duration of the GST. Nausea was reported in the majority of GST studies, particularly in the young age-group. CONCLUSIONS—The MMTT is preferred for the assessment of β-cell function in therapeutic trials in type 1 diabetes. PMID:18628574

Mixed-meal tolerance test versus glucagon stimulation test for the assessment of beta-cell function in therapeutic trials in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Carla J; Mandrup-Poulsen, Thomas; McGee, Paula Friedenberg; Battelino, Tadej; Haastert, Burkhard; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Pozzilli, Paolo; Lachin, John M; Kolb, Hubert

2008-10-01

Beta-cell function in type 1 diabetes clinical trials is commonly measured by C-peptide response to a secretagogue in either a mixed-meal tolerance test (MMTT) or a glucagon stimulation test (GST). The Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Research Group and the European C-peptide Trial (ECPT) Study Group conducted parallel randomized studies to compare the sensitivity, reproducibility, and tolerability of these procedures. In randomized sequences, 148 TrialNet subjects completed 549 tests with up to 2 MMTT and 2 GST tests on separate days, and 118 ECPT subjects completed 348 tests (up to 3 each) with either two MMTTs or two GSTs. Among individuals with up to 4 years' duration of type 1 diabetes, >85% had measurable stimulated C-peptide values. The MMTT stimulus produced significantly higher concentrations of C-peptide than the GST. Whereas both tests were highly reproducible, the MMTT was significantly more so (R(2) = 0.96 for peak C-peptide response). Overall, the majority of subjects preferred the MMTT, and there were few adverse events. Some older subjects preferred the shorter duration of the GST. Nausea was reported in the majority of GST studies, particularly in the young age-group. The MMTT is preferred for the assessment of beta-cell function in therapeutic trials in type 1 diabetes.

Figures in clinical trial reports: current practice & scope for improvement.

PubMed

Pocock, Stuart J; Travison, Thomas G; Wruck, Lisa M

2007-11-19

Most clinical trial publications include figures, but there is little guidance on what results should be displayed as figures and how. To evaluate the current use of figures in Trial reports, and to make constructive suggestions for future practice. We surveyed all 77 reports of randomised controlled trials in five general medical journals during November 2006 to January 2007. The numbers and types of figures were determined, and then each Figure was assessed for its style, content, clarity and suitability. As a consequence, guidelines are developed for presenting figures, both in general and for each specific common type of Figure. Most trial reports contained one to three figures, mean 2.3 per article. The four main types were flow diagram, Kaplan Meier plot, Forest plot (for subgroup analyses) and repeated measures over time: these accounted for 92% of all figures published. For each type of figure there is a considerable diversity of practice in both style and content which we illustrate with selected examples of both good and bad practice. Some pointers on what to do, and what to avoid, are derived from our critical evaluation of these articles' use of figures. There is considerable scope for authors to improve their use of figures in clinical trial reports, as regards which figures to choose, their style of presentation and labelling, and their specific content. Particular improvements are needed for the four main types of figures commonly used.

Viral Linkage in HIV-1 Seroconverters and Their Partners in an HIV-1 Prevention Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Campbell, Mary S.; Mullins, James I.; Hughes, James P.; Celum, Connie; Wong, Kim G.; Raugi, Dana N.; Sorensen, Stefanie; Stoddard, Julia N.; Zhao, Hong; Deng, Wenjie; Kahle, Erin; Panteleeff, Dana; Baeten, Jared M.; McCutchan, Francine E.; Albert, Jan; Leitner, Thomas; Wald, Anna; Corey, Lawrence; Lingappa, Jairam R.

2011-01-01

Background Characterization of viruses in HIV-1 transmission pairs will help identify biological determinants of infectiousness and evaluate candidate interventions to reduce transmission. Although HIV-1 sequencing is frequently used to substantiate linkage between newly HIV-1 infected individuals and their sexual partners in epidemiologic and forensic studies, viral sequencing is seldom applied in HIV-1 prevention trials. The Partners in Prevention HSV/HIV Transmission Study (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT00194519) was a prospective randomized placebo-controlled trial that enrolled serodiscordant heterosexual couples to determine the efficacy of genital herpes suppression in reducing HIV-1 transmission; as part of the study analysis, HIV-1 sequences were examined for genetic linkage between seroconverters and their enrolled partners. Methodology/Principal Findings We obtained partial consensus HIV-1 env and gag sequences from blood plasma for 151 transmission pairs and performed deep sequencing of env in some cases. We analyzed sequences with phylogenetic techniques and developed a Bayesian algorithm to evaluate the probability of linkage. For linkage, we required monophyletic clustering between enrolled partners' sequences and a Bayesian posterior probability of ≥50%. Adjudicators classified each seroconversion, finding 108 (71.5%) linked, 40 (26.5%) unlinked, and 3 (2.0%) indeterminate transmissions, with linkage determined by consensus env sequencing in 91 (84%). Male seroconverters had a higher frequency of unlinked transmissions than female seroconverters. The likelihood of transmission from the enrolled partner was related to time on study, with increasing numbers of unlinked transmissions occurring after longer observation periods. Finally, baseline viral load was found to be significantly higher among linked transmitters. Conclusions/Significance In this first use of HIV-1 sequencing to establish endpoints in a large clinical trial, more than one-fourth of transmissions were unlinked to the enrolled partner, illustrating the relevance of these methods in the design of future HIV-1 prevention trials in serodiscordant couples. A hierarchy of sequencing techniques, analysis methods, and expert adjudication contributed to the linkage determination process. PMID:21399681

Deworming drugs for soil-transmitted intestinal worms in children: effects on nutritional indicators, haemoglobin, and school performance.

PubMed

Taylor-Robinson, David C; Maayan, Nicola; Soares-Weiser, Karla; Donegan, Sarah; Garner, Paul

2015-07-23

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends treating all school children at regular intervals with deworming drugs in areas where helminth infection is common. As the intervention is often claimed to have important health, nutrition, and societal effects beyond the removal of worms, we critically evaluated the evidence on benefits. To summarize the effects of giving deworming drugs to children to treat soil-transmitted helminths on weight, haemoglobin, and cognition; and the evidence of impact on physical well-being, school attendance, school performance, and mortality. We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register (14 April 2015); Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in the Cochrane Library (2015, Issue 4); MEDLINE (2000 to 14 April 2015); EMBASE (2000 to 14 April 2015); LILACS (2000 to 14 April 2015); the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT); and reference lists, and registers of ongoing and completed trials up to 14 April 2015. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs comparing deworming drugs for soil-transmitted helminths with placebo or no treatment in children aged 16 years or less, reporting on weight, haemoglobin, and formal tests of intellectual development. We also sought data on school attendance, school performance, and mortality. We included trials that combined health education with deworming programmes. At least two review authors independently assessed the trials, evaluated risk of bias, and extracted data. We analysed continuous data using the mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Where data were missing, we contacted trial authors. We used outcomes at time of longest follow-up. The evidence quality was assessed using GRADE. This edition of the Cochrane Review adds the DEVTA trial from India, and draws on an independent analytical replication of a trial from Kenya. We identified 45 trials, including nine cluster-RCTs, that met the inclusion criteria. One trial evaluating mortality included over one million children, and the remaining 44 trials included a total of 67,672 participants. Eight trials were in children known to be infected, and 37 trials were carried out in endemic areas, including areas of high (15 trials), moderate (12 trials), and low prevalence (10 trials). Treating children known to be infectedTreating children known to be infected with a single dose of deworming drugs (selected by screening, or living in areas where all children are infected) may increase weight gain over the next one to six months (627 participants, five trials, low quality evidence). The effect size varied across trials from an additional 0.2 kg gain to 1.3 kg. There is currently insufficient evidence to know whether treatment has additional effects on haemoglobin (247 participants, two trials, very low quality evidence); school attendance (0 trials); cognitive functioning (103 participants, two trials, very low quality evidence), or physical well-being (280 participants, three trials, very low quality evidence). Community deworming programmesTreating all children living in endemic areas with a dose of deworming drugs probably has little or no effect on average weight gain (MD 0.04 kg less, 95% CI 0.11 kg less to 0.04 kg more; trials 2719 participants, seven trials, moderate quality evidence), even in settings with high prevalence of infection (290 participants, two trials). A single dose also probably has no effect on average haemoglobin (MD 0.06 g/dL, 95% CI -0.05 lower to 0.17 higher; 1005 participants, three trials, moderate quality evidence), or average cognition (1361 participants, two trials, low quality evidence).Similiarly, regularly treating all children in endemic areas with deworming drugs, given every three to six months, may have little or no effect on average weight gain (MD 0.08 kg, 95% CI 0.11 kg less to 0.27 kg more; 38,392 participants, 10 trials, low quality evidence). The effects were variable across trials; one trial from a low prevalence setting carried out in 1995 found an increase in weight, but nine trials carried out since then found no effect, including five from moderate and high prevalence areas.There is also reasonable evidence that regular treatment probably has no effect on average height (MD 0.02 cm higher, 95% CI 0.14 lower to 0.17 cm higher; 7057 participants, seven trials, moderate quality evidence); average haemoglobin (MD 0.02 g/dL lower; 95% CI 0.08 g/dL lower to 0.04 g/dL higher; 3595 participants, seven trials, low quality evidence); formal tests of cognition (32,486 participants, five trials, moderate quality evidence); exam performance (32,659 participants, two trials, moderate quality evidence); or mortality (1,005,135 participants, three trials, low quality evidence). There is very limited evidence assessing an effect on school attendance and the findings are inconsistent, and at risk of bias (mean attendance 2% higher, 95% CI 4% lower to 8% higher; 20,243 participants, two trials, very low quality evidence).In a sensitivity analysis that only included trials with adequate allocation concealment, there was no evidence of any effect for the main outcomes. Treating children known to have worm infection may have some nutritional benefits for the individual. However, in mass treatment of all children in endemic areas, there is now substantial evidence that this does not improve average nutritional status, haemoglobin, cognition, school performance, or survival.

Oncotype DX breast cancer recurrence score can be predicted with a novel nomogram using clinicopathologic data.

PubMed

Orucevic, Amila; Bell, John L; McNabb, Alison P; Heidel, Robert E

2017-05-01

Oncotype DX (ODX) recurrence score (RS) breast cancer (BC) assay is costly, and performed in only ~1/3 of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive BC patients in the USA. We have now developed a user-friendly nomogram surrogate prediction model for ODX based on a large dataset from the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to assist in selecting patients for which further ODX testing may not be necessary and as a surrogate for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available. Six clinicopathologic variables of 27,719 ODX-tested ER+/HER2-/lymph node-negative patients with 6-50 mm tumor size captured by the NCDB from 2010 to 2012 were assessed with logistic regression to predict high-risk or low-risk ODXRS test results with TAILORx-trial and commercial cut-off values; 12,763 ODX-tested patients in 2013 were used for external validation. The predictive accuracy of the regression model was yielded using a Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis. Model fit was analyzed by plotting the predicted probabilities against the actual probabilities. A user-friendly calculator version of nomograms is available online at the University of Tennessee Medical Center website (Knoxville, TN). Grade and progesterone receptor status were the highest predictors of both low-risk and high-risk ODXRS, followed by age, tumor size, histologic tumor type and lymph-vascular invasion (C-indexes-.0.85 vs. 0.88 for TAILORx-trial vs. commercial cut-off values, respectively). This is the first study of this scale showing confidently that clinicopathologic variables can be used for prediction of low-risk or high-risk ODXRS using our nomogram models. These novel nomograms will be useful tools to help physicians and patients decide whether further ODX testing is necessary and are excellent surrogates for patients for which ODX testing is not affordable or available.

The Brain's Reward Response Occurs Even Without Actual Reward!

PubMed

Fielding, A; Fu, Y; Franz, E A

2018-06-01

What if the brain's response to reward occurs even when there is no reward? Wouldn't that be a further concern for people prone to problem gambling and other forms of addiction, like those related to eating? Electroencephalography was employed to investigate this possibility using probabilistic feedback manipulations and measures of known event-related potentials (ERPs) related to reward processing. We tested the hypothesis-that reward-based ERPs would occur even in the absence of a tangible reward and when manipulations on expectation are implicit. The well-known P300 response potential was a key focus, and was assessed in non-gambling volunteer undergraduates on a task involving experimentally-manipulated probabilities of positive or negative feedback comprising three trial types-80, 50, or 20% positive feedback. A feedback stimulus (F1) followed a guess response between two possible outcomes (implicit win/loss), and then a second feedback stimulus (F2) was presented to confirm an alleged 'win' or 'loss' (explicit win/loss). Results revealed that amplitude of the P300 in F1-locked data (implicit manipulation) was larger (more positive) on average for feedback outcomes that were manipulated to be less likely than expected. The effect is pronounced after increased time on task (later trials), even though the majority of participants were not explicitly aware of our probability manipulations. For the explicit effects in F2-locked data, no meaningful or significant effects were observed. These findings point to the existence of proposed success-response mechanisms that operate not only explicitly but also with implicit manipulations that do not involve any direct indication of a win or loss, and are not associated with tangible rewards. Thus, there seems to be a non-explicit form of perception (we call 'implicit') associated with an internal experience of wins/losses (in the absence of actual rewards or losses) that can be measured in associated brain processes. The potential significance of these findings is discussed in terms of implications for problem gambling.

The effect of two lottery-style incentives on response rates to postal questionnaires in a prospective cohort study in preschool children at high risk of asthma: a randomized trial.

PubMed

van der Mark, Lonneke B; van Wonderen, Karina E; Mohrs, Jacob; Bindels, Patrick Je; Puhan, Milo A; Ter Riet, Gerben

2012-12-18

In research with long-term follow-up and repeated measurements, quick and complete response to questionnaires helps ensure a study's validity, precision and efficiency. Evidence on the effect of non-monetary incentives on response rates in observational longitudinal research is scarce. To study the impact of two strategies to enhance completeness and efficiency in observational cohort studies with follow-up durations of around 2 years. METHOD AND INTERVENTION: In a factorial design, 771 children between 2 and 5 years old and their parents participating in a prospective cohort study were randomized to three intervention groups and a control group. Three types of lotteries were run: (i) daytrip tickets for the whole family to a popular amusement park if they returned all postal questionnaires, (ii) €12.50-worth gift vouchers for sending back the questionnaire on time after each questionnaire round and (iii) a combination of (i) and (ii). Primary outcome was the proportion of participants who returned all questionnaires without any reminder. Secondary outcomes were '100% returned with or without reminder', 'probability of 100% non-response', 'probability of withdrawal', 'proportion of returned questionnaires' and 'overall number of reminders sent'. After testing for interaction between the two lottery interventions, the two trials were analysed separately. We calculated risk differences (RD) and numbers needed to "treat" and their 95% confidence intervals. Daytrip nor voucher intervention had an effect on the proportion of participants who returned all questionnaires (RD -0.01; 95% CI-0.07 - 0.06) and (RD 0.02; 95% CI-0.50 - 0.08), respectively. No effects were found on the secondary outcomes. Our findings do not support the idea that lottery-style incentives lead to more complete response to postal questionnaires in observational cohort studies with repeated data collection and follow-up durations of around 2 years.

Current Challenges in Cancer Treatment.

PubMed

Zugazagoitia, Jon; Guedes, Cristiano; Ponce, Santiago; Ferrer, Irene; Molina-Pinelo, Sonia; Paz-Ares, Luis

2016-07-01

In this review, we highlight the current concepts and discuss some of the current challenges and future prospects in cancer therapy. We frequently use the example of lung cancer. We conducted a nonsystematic PubMed search, selecting the most comprehensive and relevant research articles, clinical trials, translational papers, and review articles on precision oncology and immuno-oncology. Papers were prioritized and selected based on their originality and potential clinical applicability. Two major revolutions have changed cancer treatment paradigms in the past few years: targeting actionable alterations in oncogene-driven cancers and immuno-oncology. Important challenges are still ongoing in both fields of cancer therapy. On the one hand, druggable genomic alterations are diverse and represent only small subsets of patients in certain tumor types, which limits testing their clinical impact in biomarker-driven clinical trials. Next-generation sequencing technologies are increasingly being implemented for molecular prescreening in clinical research, but issues regarding clinical interpretation of large genomic data make their wide clinical use difficult. Further, dealing with tumor heterogeneity and acquired resistance is probably the main limitation for the success of precision oncology. On the other hand, long-term survival benefits with immune checkpoint inhibitors (anti-programmed death cell protein-1/programmed death cell ligand-1[PD-1/L1] and anti-cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen-4 monoclonal antibodies) are restricted to a minority of patients, and no predictive markers are yet robustly validated that could help us recognize these subsets and optimize treatment delivery and selection. To achieve long-term survival benefits, drug combinations targeting several molecular alterations or cancer hallmarks might be needed. This will probably be one of the most challenging but promising precision cancer treatment strategies in the future. Targeting single molecular abnormalities or cancer pathways has achieved good clinical responses that have modestly affected survival in some cancers. However, this approach to cancer treatment is still reductionist, and many challenges need to be met to improve treatment outcomes with our patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

What have we learned from the current trials?

PubMed

Abbott, Kevin C; Bakris, George L

2004-01-01

Even well-conducted randomized controlled trials can only reduce uncertainty, not eliminate it. The trials presented in this article all have gaps, and like many studies, some raise more questions than answers. A summary of the current trials, however, can be presented as follows. For patients with essential hypertension who are at high risk for cardiovascular disease, the use of diuretic therapy (excluding simultaneous use of ACE or CCB) resulted in outcomes at least equivalent to the use of either ACE or CCB without diuretics. Naturally, the dilemma for clinicians is that these drugs are most often used in combination with thiazide diuretics, as indicated by the RENAAL trial where 80% of ARB were used with diuretics in patients with type II diabetes and known nephropathy. The increased risk of heart failure observed with ACE and CCB in that trial may be relevant only to patients in whom diuretics were not also used. The study does raise important awareness, however, that ACE or CCB use without diuretic therapy is no better than diuretic therapy, and may be associated with higher risk of certain outcomes. A substantial number of patients with essential hypertension might achieve adequate blood pressure control with diuretic monotherapy. If so, that certainly has important implications for the cost of medical care in this country. For African Americans with essential hypertension, ACE may have advantages as a component of therapy in comparison with CCBs or beta-blockers, although diuretics should probably be the cornerstone of therapy for them and supported by the Seventh Joint National Committee. For patients with proteinuric renal disease, whether associated with diabetes or hypertension, it should be considered inappropriate to use DHP CCB as monotherapy in any setting, whether as part of a clinical trial or in clinical practice. These drugs should not be considered as ethical placebo arms in trials, most especially in diabetic nephropathy, nor should they be used without an ACE or ARB in patients with proteinuric renal disease in the absence of documented contraindications or intolerance to ACE, ARB, or non-DHP CCB (which are now considered second-line agents for proteinuric renal disease, and are acceptable placebo or comparison arms in clinical trials). For patients with type I diabetes, ACE remain the cornerstone of therapy. Because of recent RENAAL and IDNT trial results, the greatest benefit for slowing progression of renal disease in type II diabetic nephropathy now belongs to ARBs. In contrast, however, the HOPE trial showed that ACE, specifically ramipril, had the greatest evidence for prevention of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with renal insufficiency, regardless of diabetic status. Cardiovascular outcomes were secondary end points in the RENAAL and IDNT trials, and with the exception of heart failure for losartan, no benefits on cardiovascular outcomes were statistically significant. Progression of renal disease has only been studied in a relatively small cohort of Israeli patients comparing enalapril with nifedipine. These gaps lead to a classic dilemma in medical decision-making. Because evidence has shown that patients with elevated serum creatinine (greater than or equal to 1.4 mg/dL) are just as likely to die from cardiovascular disease as they are to reach end-stage renal disease, which outcome should be the focus for clinicians, or for researchers? Using a strictly evidence-based approach, this question can only be answered by yet another large, long, randomized, controlled trial. Given the similarity of actions between the ARB and ACE, it is likely there is considerable overlap of both benefits and side-effects between the two, although ARB may have a lower incidence of cough and hyperkalemia. The decision of which antihypertensive agents to use will have to be tailored carefully to the needs of the patient and careful consideration of both medical and economic factors. Regardless of the choice between an ACE or ARB, however, post hoc analysis of clinical trials [21,47] and observational data clearly indicate that patients with chronic kidney disease, even if considered mild (ie, serum creatinine greater than or equal to 1.4 mg/dL) are at significantly greater risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality compared with those with better kidney function. As stated in a recent review by the authors of the HOPE trial [50], "the frequent practice of withholding ACE [or ARB] in patients with mild renal insufficiency is unwarranted," because not only are these patients precisely those who might benefit most from their use, but safety and tolerability are generally excellent. Based on the results of the AASK trial, the authors add the same for the use of ACE inhibitors in African Americans.

Alleviation of mandibular anterior crowding with copper-nickel-titanium vs nickel-titanium wires: a double-blind randomized control trial.

PubMed

Pandis, Nikolaos; Polychronopoulou, Argy; Eliades, Theodore

2009-08-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficiency of copper-nickel-titanium (CuNiTi) vs nickel-titanium (NiTi) archwires in resolving crowding of the anterior mandibular dentition. Sixty patients were included in this single-center, single-operator, double-blind randomized trial. All patients were bonded with the In Ovation-R self-ligating bracket (GAC, Central Islip, NY) with a 0.022-in slot, and the amount of crowding of the mandibular anterior dentition was assessed by using the irregularity index. The patients were randomly allocated into 2 groups of 30 patients, each receiving a 0.016-in CuNiTi 35 degrees C (Ormco, Glendora, Calif) or a 0.016-in NiTi (ModernArch, Wyomissing, Pa) wire. The type of wire selected for each patient was not disclosed to the provider or the patient. The date that each patient received a wire was recorded, and all patients were followed monthly for a maximum of 6 months. Demographic and clinical characteristics between the 2 wire groups were compared with the t test or the chi-square test and the Fisher exact test. Time to resolve crowding was explored with statistical methods for survival analysis, and alignment rate ratios for wire type and crowding level were calculated with Cox proportional hazards multivariate modeling. The type of wire (CuNiTi vs NiTi) had no significant effect on crowding alleviation (129.4 vs 121.4 days; hazard ratio, 1.3; P >0.05). Severe crowding (>5 on the irregularity index) showed a significantly higher probability of crowding alleviation duration relative to dental arches with a score of <5 (138.5 vs 113.1 days; hazard ratio, 2.2; P=0.02). The difference of the loading pattern of wires in laboratory and clinical conditions might effectively eliminate the laboratory-derived advantage of CuNiTi wires.

The impact of motivation on cognitive performance in an animal model of the negative and cognitive symptoms of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Ward, Ryan D; Winiger, Vanessa; Higa, Kerin K; Kahn, Julia B; Kandel, Eric R; Balsam, Peter D; Simpson, Eleanor H

2015-06-01

Interactions between motivation and cognition are implicated in producing functional impairments and poor quality of life in psychiatric patients. This interaction, however, is not well understood at either the behavioral or neural level. We developed a procedure for mice in which a cognitive measure, sustained attention, is modulated by a motivationally relevant signal that predicts reward probability on a trial-by-trial basis. Using this paradigm, we tested the interaction between motivation and cognition in mice that model the increased striatal D2 receptor activity observed in schizophrenia patients (D2R-OE mice). In control mice, attention was modulated by signaled-reward probability. In D2R-OE mice, however, attention was not modulated by reward-related cues. This impairment was not due to any global deficits in attention or maintenance of the trial-specific information in working memory. Turning off the transgene in D2R-OE mice rescued the motivational modulation of attention. These results indicate that deficits in motivation impair the ability to use reward-related cues to recruit attention and that improving motivation improves functional cognitive performance. These results further suggest that addressing motivational impairments in patients is critical to achieving substantive cognitive and functional gains. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Inference for the effect of treatment on survival probability in randomized trials with noncompliance and administrative censoring.

PubMed

Nie, Hui; Cheng, Jing; Small, Dylan S

2011-12-01

In many clinical studies with a survival outcome, administrative censoring occurs when follow-up ends at a prespecified date and many subjects are still alive. An additional complication in some trials is that there is noncompliance with the assigned treatment. For this setting, we study the estimation of the causal effect of treatment on survival probability up to a given time point among those subjects who would comply with the assignment to both treatment and control. We first discuss the standard instrumental variable (IV) method for survival outcomes and parametric maximum likelihood methods, and then develop an efficient plug-in nonparametric empirical maximum likelihood estimation (PNEMLE) approach. The PNEMLE method does not make any assumptions on outcome distributions, and makes use of the mixture structure in the data to gain efficiency over the standard IV method. Theoretical results of the PNEMLE are derived and the method is illustrated by an analysis of data from a breast cancer screening trial. From our limited mortality analysis with administrative censoring times 10 years into the follow-up, we find a significant benefit of screening is present after 4 years (at the 5% level) and this persists at 10 years follow-up. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

A varying-coefficient method for analyzing longitudinal clinical trials data with nonignorable dropout

PubMed Central

Forster, Jeri E.; MaWhinney, Samantha; Ball, Erika L.; Fairclough, Diane

2011-01-01

Dropout is common in longitudinal clinical trials and when the probability of dropout depends on unobserved outcomes even after conditioning on available data, it is considered missing not at random and therefore nonignorable. To address this problem, mixture models can be used to account for the relationship between a longitudinal outcome and dropout. We propose a Natural Spline Varying-coefficient mixture model (NSV), which is a straightforward extension of the parametric Conditional Linear Model (CLM). We assume that the outcome follows a varying-coefficient model conditional on a continuous dropout distribution. Natural cubic B-splines are used to allow the regression coefficients to semiparametrically depend on dropout and inference is therefore more robust. Additionally, this method is computationally stable and relatively simple to implement. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate performance and compare methodologies in settings where the longitudinal trajectories are linear and dropout time is observed for all individuals. Performance is assessed under conditions where model assumptions are both met and violated. In addition, we compare the NSV to the CLM and a standard random-effects model using an HIV/AIDS clinical trial with probable nonignorable dropout. The simulation studies suggest that the NSV is an improvement over the CLM when dropout has a nonlinear dependence on the outcome. PMID:22101223

Bayesian Optimal Interval Design: A Simple and Well-Performing Design for Phase I Oncology Trials

PubMed Central

Yuan, Ying; Hess, Kenneth R.; Hilsenbeck, Susan G.; Gilbert, Mark R.

2016-01-01

Despite more than two decades of publications that offer more innovative model-based designs, the classical 3+3 design remains the most dominant phase I trial design in practice. In this article, we introduce a new trial design, the Bayesian optimal interval (BOIN) design. The BOIN design is easy to implement in a way similar to the 3+3 design, but is more flexible for choosing the target toxicity rate and cohort size and yields a substantially better performance that is comparable to that of more complex model-based designs. The BOIN design contains the 3+3 design and the accelerated titration design as special cases, thus linking it to established phase I approaches. A numerical study shows that the BOIN design generally outperforms the 3+3 design and the modified toxicity probability interval (mTPI) design. The BOIN design is more likely than the 3+3 design to correctly select the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and allocate more patients to the MTD. Compared to the mTPI design, the BOIN design has a substantially lower risk of overdosing patients and generally a higher probability of correctly selecting the MTD. User-friendly software is freely available to facilitate the application of the BOIN design. PMID:27407096

The @RISK Study: Risk communication for patients with type 2 diabetes: design of a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Welschen, Laura M C; Bot, Sandra D M; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; van der Weijden, Trudy; Nijpels, Giel

2010-08-05

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk to develop severe diabetes related complications, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The risk to develop CVD can be estimated by means of risk formulas. However, patients have difficulties to understand the outcomes of these formulas. As a result, they may not recognize the importance of changing lifestyle and taking medication in time. Therefore, it is important to develop risk communication methods, that will improve the patients' understanding of risks associated with having diabetes, which enables them to make informed choices about their diabetes care.The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an intervention focussed on the communication of the absolute 10-year risk to develop CVD on risk perception, attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour in patients with T2DM. The conceptual framework of the intervention is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Self-regulation Theory. A randomised controlled trial will be performed in the Diabetes Care System West-Friesland (DCS), a managed care system. Newly referred T2DM patients of the DCS, younger than 75 years will be eligible for the study. The intervention group will be exposed to risk communication on CVD, on top of standard managed care of the DCS. This intervention consists of a simple explanation on the causes and consequences of CVD, and possibilities for prevention. The probabilities of CVD in 10 year will be explained in natural frequencies and visualised by a population diagram. The control group will receive standard managed care. The primary outcome is appropriateness of risk perception. Secondary outcomes are attitude and intention to change lifestyle behaviour and illness perception. Differences between baseline and follow-up (2 and 12 weeks) between groups will be analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. The study was powered on 120 patients in each group. This innovative risk communication method based on two behavioural theories might improve patient's appropriateness of risk perception and attitude concerning lifestyle change. With a better understanding of their CVD risk, patients will be able to make informed choices concerning diabetes care. The trial is registered as NTR1556 in the Dutch Trial Register.

Formation of S-type planets in close binaries: scattering induced tidal capture of circumbinary planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Yan-Xiang; Ji, Jianghui

2018-05-01

Although several S-type and P-type planets in binary systems were discovered in past years, S-type planets have not yet been found in close binaries with an orbital separation not more than 5 au. Recent studies suggest that S-type planets in close binaries may be detected through high-accuracy observations. However, nowadays planet formation theories imply that it is difficult for S-type planets in close binaries systems to form in situ. In this work, we extensively perform numerical simulations to explore scenarios of planet-planet scattering among circumbinary planets and subsequent tidal capture in various binary configurations, to examine whether the mechanism can play a part in producing such kind of planets. Our results show that this mechanism is robust. The maximum capture probability is ˜10%, which can be comparable to the tidal capture probability of hot Jupiters in single star systems. The capture probability is related to binary configurations, where a smaller eccentricity or a low mass ratio of the binary will lead to a larger probability of capture, and vice versa. Furthermore, we find that S-type planets with retrograde orbits can be naturally produced via capture process. These planets on retrograde orbits can help us distinguish in situ formation and post-capture origin for S-type planet in close binaries systems. The forthcoming missions (PLATO) will provide the opportunity and feasibility to detect such planets. Our work provides several suggestions for selecting target binaries in search for S-type planets in the near future.

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development.

PubMed

Rufibach, Kaspar; Burger, Hans Ulrich; Abt, Markus

2016-09-01

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u-shape very similar, but not equal, to a β-distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Contribution of correlated noise and selective decoding to choice probability measurements in extrastriate visual cortex

PubMed Central

Gu, Yong; Angelaki, Dora E; DeAngelis, Gregory C

2014-01-01

Trial by trial covariations between neural activity and perceptual decisions (quantified by choice Probability, CP) have been used to probe the contribution of sensory neurons to perceptual decisions. CPs are thought to be determined by both selective decoding of neural activity and by the structure of correlated noise among neurons, but the respective roles of these factors in creating CPs have been controversial. We used biologically-constrained simulations to explore this issue, taking advantage of a peculiar pattern of CPs exhibited by multisensory neurons in area MSTd that represent self-motion. Although models that relied on correlated noise or selective decoding could both account for the peculiar pattern of CPs, predictions of the selective decoding model were substantially more consistent with various features of the neural and behavioral data. While correlated noise is essential to observe CPs, our findings suggest that selective decoding of neuronal signals also plays important roles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02670.001 PMID:24986734

Application of Archimedean copulas to the analysis of drought decadal variation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Dongdong; Feng, Guolin; Zhang, Zengping; Hou, Wei

2017-12-01

Based on daily precipitation data collected from 1171 stations in China during 1961-2015, the monthly standardized precipitation index was derived and used to extract two major drought characteristics which are drought duration and severity. Next, a bivariate joint model was established based on the marginal distributions of the two variables and Archimedean copula functions. The joint probability and return period were calculated to analyze the drought characteristics and decadal variation. According to the fit analysis, the Gumbel-Hougaard copula provided the best fit to the observed data. Based on four drought duration classifications and four severity classifications, the drought events were divided into 16 drought types according to the different combinations of duration and severity classifications, and the probability and return period were analyzed for different drought types. The results showed that the occurring probability of six common drought types (0 < D ≤ 1 and 0.5 < S ≤ 1, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 0.5 < S ≤ 1, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 1 < S ≤ 1.5, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 1.5 < S ≤ 2, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 2 < S, and 3 < D ≤ 6 and 2 < S) accounted for 76% of the total probability of all types. Moreover, due to their greater variation, two drought types were particularly notable, i.e., the drought types where D ≥ 6 and S ≥ 2. Analyzing the joint probability in different decades indicated that the location of the drought center had a distinctive stage feature, which cycled from north to northeast to southwest during 1961-2015. However, southwest, north, and northeast China had a higher drought risk. In addition, the drought situation in southwest China should be noted because the joint probability values, return period, and the analysis of trends in the drought duration and severity all indicated a considerable risk in recent years.

[Legionnaires' disease: 21 cases observed over 2.5 years in a Parisian respiratory intensive care unit].

PubMed

Carette, M F; Mayaud, C; Dournon, E; Bure, A; Houacine, S; Morinière, B; Sicard, J F; Akoun, G

1985-01-01

The incidence of Legionnaire's disease is probably underestimated in France. Its clinical presentation is very suggestive, especially after the failure of a 48 hour therapeutic trial of beta-lactams, when a pneumococcal infection is initially suspected. This one sign is sufficient to orient the diagnostic survey and constitutes an indication for a therapeutic trial of macrolides for at least 72 hours. In fact, the delay in the diagnosis appears to be the determinant factor in the fatal outcome of the disease.

Long-term insulin glargine therapy in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a focus on cardiovascular outcomes

PubMed Central

Joseph, Joshua J; Donner, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Hyperinsulinemia is associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but the effects of exogenous insulin on cardiovascular disease progression have been less well studied. Insulin has been shown to have both cardioprotective and atherosclerosis-promoting effects in laboratory animal studies. Long-term clinical trials using insulin to attain improved diabetes control in younger type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients have shown improved cardiovascular outcomes. Shorter trials of intensive diabetes control with high insulin use in higher risk patients with type 2 diabetes have shown either no cardiovascular benefit or increased all cause and cardiovascular mortality. Glargine insulin is a basal insulin analog widely used to treat patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. This review focuses on the effects of glargine on cardiovascular outcomes. Glargine lowers triglycerides, leads to a modest weight gain, causes less hypoglycemia when compared with intermediate-acting insulin, and has a neutral effect on blood pressure. The Outcome Reduction With Initial Glargine Intervention (ORIGIN trial), a 6.2 year dedicated cardiovascular outcomes trial of glargine demonstrated no increased cardiovascular risk. PMID:25657589

Tricyclic and Tetracyclic Antidepressants for the Prevention of Frequent Episodic or Chronic Tension-Type Headache in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Jackson, Jeffrey L; Mancuso, Josephine M; Nickoloff, Sarah; Bernstein, Rebecca; Kay, Cynthia

2017-12-01

Tension-type headaches are a common source of pain and suffering. Our purpose was to assess the efficacy of tricyclic (TCA) and tetracyclic antidepressants in the prophylactic treatment of tension-type headache. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the ISI Web of Science, and clinical trial registries through 11 March 2017 for randomized controlled studies of TCA or tetracyclic antidepressants in the prevention of tension-type headache in adults. Data were pooled using a random effects approach. Among 22 randomized controlled trials, eight included a placebo comparison and 19 compared at least two active treatments. Eight studies compared TCAs to placebo, four compared TCAs to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and two trials compared TCAs to behavioral therapies. Two trials compared tetracyclics to placebo. Single trials compared TCAs to tetracyclics, buspirone, spinal manipulation, transcutaneous electrical stimulation, massage, and intra-oral orthotics. High-quality evidence suggests that TCAs were superior to placebo in reducing headache frequency (weighted mean differences (WMD): -4.8 headaches/month, 95% CI: -6.63 to -2.95) and number of analgesic medications consumed (WMD: -21.0 doses/month, 95% CI: -38.2 to -3.8). TCAs were more effective than SSRIs. Low-quality studies suggest that TCAs are superior to buspirone, but equivalent to behavioral therapy, spinal manipulation, intra-oral orthotics, and massage. Tetracyclics were no better than placebo for chronic tension-type headache. Tricyclic antidepressants are modestly effective in reducing chronic tension-type headache and are superior to buspirone. In limited studies, tetracyclics appear to be ineffective in the prophylactic treatment of chronic tension-type headache.

Study protocol: a randomised placebo-controlled clinical trial to study the effect of vitamin D supplementation on glycaemic control in type 2 Diabetes Mellitus SUNNY trial.

PubMed

Krul-Poel, Yvonne H M; van Wijland, Hans; Stam, Frank; ten Boekel, Edwin; Lips, Paul; Simsek, Suat

2014-07-17

Besides the classical role of vitamin D on calcium and bone homeostasis, vitamin D deficiency has recently been identified as a contributing factor in the onset of insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, it is uncertain whether vitamin D deficiency and poor glycaemic control are causally interrelated or that they constitute two independent features of type 2 diabetes mellitus. There are limited clinical trials carried out which measured the effect of vitamin D supplementation on glycaemic control.The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on glycaemic control and quality of life in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. In a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial conducted in five general practices in the Netherlands three hundred patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with lifestyle advises or metformin or sulphonylurea-derivatives are randomised to receive either placebo or 50,000 IU Vitamin D3 at monthly intervals. The primary outcome measure is the change in glycated haemoglobin level between baseline and six months. Secondary outcome measures include blood pressure, anthropometric parameters, lipid profile, insulin resistance, quality of life, advanced glycation end products and safety profiles. Quality of life will be measured by The Short Form (SF-36) Health Survey questionnaire. Advanced glycation end products are measured by an AGE-reader. This trial will be the first study exploring the effect of vitamin D supplementation on both glycaemic control and quality of life in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Our findings will contribute to the knowledge of the relationship between vitamin D status and insulin resistance in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The Netherlands trial register: NTR3154.

A Stochastic Framework for Evaluating Seizure Prediction Algorithms Using Hidden Markov Models

PubMed Central

Wong, Stephen; Gardner, Andrew B.; Krieger, Abba M.; Litt, Brian

2007-01-01

Responsive, implantable stimulation devices to treat epilepsy are now in clinical trials. New evidence suggests that these devices may be more effective when they deliver therapy before seizure onset. Despite years of effort, prospective seizure prediction, which could improve device performance, remains elusive. In large part, this is explained by lack of agreement on a statistical framework for modeling seizure generation and a method for validating algorithm performance. We present a novel stochastic framework based on a three-state hidden Markov model (HMM) (representing interictal, preictal, and seizure states) with the feature that periods of increased seizure probability can transition back to the interictal state. This notion reflects clinical experience and may enhance interpretation of published seizure prediction studies. Our model accommodates clipped EEG segments and formalizes intuitive notions regarding statistical validation. We derive equations for type I and type II errors as a function of the number of seizures, duration of interictal data, and prediction horizon length and we demonstrate the model’s utility with a novel seizure detection algorithm that appeared to predicted seizure onset. We propose this framework as a vital tool for designing and validating prediction algorithms and for facilitating collaborative research in this area. PMID:17021032

[Dietary fibers: current trends and health benefits in the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes].

PubMed

Mello, Vanessa D de; Laaksonen, David E

2009-07-01

Dietary fiber may contribute to both the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In epidemiological studies the intake of insoluble fiber, but not the intake of soluble fiber, has been inversely associated with the incidence of T2DM. In contrast, in postprandial studies, meals containing sufficiently quantities of beta-glucan, psyllium, or guar gum have decreased insulin and glucose responses in both healthy individuals and patients with T2DM. Diets enriched sufficiently in soluble fiber may also improve overall glycemic control in T2DM. Insoluble fiber has little effect on postprandial insulin and glucose responses. Fiber increases satiety. In some studies, insoluble fiber has been associated with less weight gain over time. Limited cross-sectional evidence suggests an inverse relationship between intake of cereal fiber and whole-grains and the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome. Although long-term data from trials focusing on specifically dietary fiber are lacking, meeting current recommendations for a minimum fiber intake of 25 g/d based on a diet rich in whole grains, fruits and legumes will probably decrease the risk of obesity, the metabolic syndrome and T2DM.

The optimal on-source region size for detections with counting-type telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klepser, S.

2017-03-01

Source detection in counting type experiments such as Cherenkov telescopes often involves the application of the classical Eq. (17) from the paper of Li & Ma (1983) to discrete on- and off-source regions. The on-source region is typically a circular area with radius θ in which the signal is expected to appear with the shape of the instrument point spread function (PSF). This paper addresses the question of what is the θ that maximises the probability of detection for a given PSF width and background event density. In the high count number limit and assuming a Gaussian PSF profile, the optimum is found to be at ζ∞2 ≈ 2.51 times the squared PSF width σPSF392. While this number is shown to be a good choice in many cases, a dynamic formula for cases of lower count numbers, which favour larger on-source regions, is given. The recipe to get to this parametrisation can also be applied to cases with a non-Gaussian PSF. This result can standardise and simplify analysis procedures, reduce trials and eliminate the need for experience-based ad hoc cut definitions or expensive case-by-case Monte Carlo simulations.

Practical characteristics of adaptive design in phase 2 and 3 clinical trials.

PubMed

Sato, A; Shimura, M; Gosho, M

2018-04-01

Adaptive design methods are expected to be ethical, reflect real medical practice, increase the likelihood of research and development success and reduce the allocation of patients into ineffective treatment groups by the early termination of clinical trials. However, the comprehensive details regarding which types of clinical trials will include adaptive designs remain unclear. We examined the practical characteristics of adaptive design used in clinical trials. We conducted a literature search of adaptive design clinical trials published from 2012 to 2015 using PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, with common search terms related to adaptive design. We systematically assessed the types and characteristics of adaptive designs and disease areas employed in the adaptive design trials. Our survey identified 245 adaptive design clinical trials. The number of trials by the publication year increased from 2012 to 2013 and did not greatly change afterwards. The most frequently used adaptive design was group sequential design (n = 222, 90.6%), especially for neoplasm or cardiovascular disease trials. Among the other types of adaptive design, adaptive dose/treatment group selection (n = 21, 8.6%) and adaptive sample-size adjustment (n = 19, 7.8%) were frequently used. The adaptive randomization (n = 8, 3.3%) and adaptive seamless design (n = 6, 2.4%) were less frequent. Adaptive dose/treatment group selection and adaptive sample-size adjustment were frequently used (up to 23%) in "certain infectious and parasitic diseases," "diseases of nervous system," and "mental and behavioural disorders" in comparison with "neoplasms" (<6.6%). For "mental and behavioural disorders," adaptive randomization was used in two trials of eight trials in total (25%). Group sequential design and adaptive sample-size adjustment were used frequently in phase 3 trials or in trials where study phase was not specified, whereas the other types of adaptive designs were used more in phase 2 trials. Approximately 82% (202 of 245 trials) resulted in early termination at the interim analysis. Among the 202 trials, 132 (54% of 245 trials) had fewer randomized patients than initially planned. This result supports the motive to use adaptive design to make study durations shorter and include a smaller number of subjects. We found that adaptive designs have been applied to clinical trials in various therapeutic areas and interventions. The applications were frequently reported in neoplasm or cardiovascular clinical trials. The adaptive dose/treatment group selection and sample-size adjustment are increasingly common, and these adaptations generally follow the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) recommendations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical trials in dentistry in India: Analysis from trial registry.

PubMed

Gowri, S; Kannan, Sridharan

2017-01-01

Evidence-based practice requires clinical trials to be performed. In India, if any clinical trial has to be performed, it has to be registered with clinical trial registry of India. Studies have shown that the report of clinical trials is poor in dentistry. Hence, the present study has been conducted to assess the type and trends of clinical trials being undertaken in dentistry in India over a span of 6 years. All the clinical trials which were registered with the Central Trial Registry of India (CTRI) (www.ctri.nic.in) from January 1, 2007 to March 3, 2014 were evaluated using the keyword "dental." Following information were collected for each of the clinical trials obtained from the search; number of centres (single center/multicentric), type of the institution undertaking the research (government/private/combined), study (observational/interventional), study design (randomized/single blinded/double-blinded), type of health condition, type of participants (healthy/patients), sponsors (academia/commercial), phase of clinical trial (Phase 1/2/3/4), publication details (published/not published), whether it was a postgraduate thesis or not and prospective or retrospective registration of clinical trials, methodological quality (method of randomization, allocation concealment). Descriptive statistics was used for analysis of various categories. Trend analysis was done to assess the changes over a period of time. The search yielded a total of 84 trials of which majority of them were single centered. Considering the study design more than half of the registered clinical trials were double-blinded (47/84 [56%]). With regard to the place of conducting a trial, most of the trials were planned to be performed in private hospitals (56/84 [66.7%]). Most (79/84, 94.1%) of the clinical trials were interventional while only 5/84 (5.9%) were observational. Majority (65/84, 77.4%) of the registered clinical trials were recruiting patients while the rest were being done in healthy participants. From 2011, some of the postgraduate thesis trials had also been registered (2011-8; 2012-8; 2013-13; 2014-6). Inadequacy in reporting the method of randomization and allocation concealment was observed in 37/67 (55.2%) and 31/67 (46.2%) clinical trials respectively. A considerable number of postgraduate theses was also registered with CTRI in dentistry and majority of the clinical trials despite being completed are not yet published. The number of clinical trials in dentistry are low in India, and more focus should be placed by dental investigators regarding the reporting standards. Furthermore, researchers and trial sponsors should aim at publication of the research findings so that it is made publically available for use. A clear-cut need exists for an increase in both the quantity and quality of clinical trials in dentistry.

A Gleason-Type Theorem for Any Dimension Based on a Gambling Formulation of Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavoli, Alessio; Facchini, Alessandro; Zaffalon, Marco

2017-07-01

Based on a gambling formulation of quantum mechanics, we derive a Gleason-type theorem that holds for any dimension n of a quantum system, and in particular for n=2. The theorem states that the only logically consistent probability assignments are exactly the ones that are definable as the trace of the product of a projector and a density matrix operator. In addition, we detail the reason why dispersion-free probabilities are actually not valid, or rational, probabilities for quantum mechanics, and hence should be excluded from consideration.

Cumulative probability of neodymium: YAG laser posterior capsulotomy after phacoemulsification.

PubMed

Ando, Hiroshi; Ando, Nobuyo; Oshika, Tetsuro

2003-11-01

To retrospectively analyze the cumulative probability of neodymium:YAG (Nd:YAG) laser posterior capsulotomy after phacoemulsification and to evaluate the risk factors. Ando Eye Clinic, Kanagawa, Japan. In 3997 eyes that had phacoemulsification with an intact continuous curvilinear capsulorhexis, the cumulative probability of posterior capsulotomy was computed by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and risk factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The variables tested were sex; age; type of cataract; preoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA); presence of diabetes mellitus, diabetic retinopathy, or retinitis pigmentosa; type of intraocular lens (IOL); and the year the operation was performed. The IOLs were categorized as 3-piece poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA), 1-piece PMMA, 3-piece silicone, and acrylic foldable. The cumulative probability of capsulotomy after cataract surgery was 1.95%, 18.50%, and 32.70% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Positive risk factors included a better preoperative BCVA (P =.0005; risk ratio [RR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.5) and the presence of retinitis pigmentosa (P<.0001; RR, 6.6; 95% CI, 3.7-11.6). Women had a significantly greater probability of Nd:YAG laser posterior capsulotomy (P =.016; RR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8). The type of IOL was significantly related to the probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy, with the foldable acrylic IOL having a significantly lower probability of capsulotomy. The 1-piece PMMA IOL had a significantly higher risk than 3-piece PMMA and 3-piece silicone IOLs. The probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy was higher in women, in eyes with a better preoperative BCVA, and in patients with retinitis pigmentosa. The foldable acrylic IOL had a significantly lower probability of capsulotomy.

PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Pearce, Lucy S; Wilkins, John T; Overington, John P; Hingorani, Aroon D; Casas, Juan P

2017-04-28

Despite the availability of effective drug therapies that reduce low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol (LDL-C), cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains an important cause of mortality and morbidity. Therefore, additional LDL-C reduction may be warranted, especially for patients who are unresponsive to, or unable to take, existing LDL-C-reducing therapies. By inhibiting the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) enzyme, monoclonal antibodies (PCSK9 inhibitors) may further reduce LDL-C, potentially reducing CVD risk as well. Primary To quantify short-term (24 weeks), medium-term (one year), and long-term (five years) effects of PCSK9 inhibitors on lipid parameters and on the incidence of CVD. Secondary To quantify the safety of PCSK9 inhibitors, with specific focus on the incidence of type 2 diabetes, cognitive function, and cancer. Additionally, to determine if specific patient subgroups were more or less likely to benefit from the use of PCSK9 inhibitors. We identified studies by systematically searching the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science. We also searched Clinicaltrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and screened the reference lists of included studies. We identified the studies included in this review through electronic literature searches conducted up to May 2016, and added three large trials published in March 2017. All parallel-group and factorial randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a follow-up time of at least 24 weeks were eligible. Two review authors independently reviewed and extracted data. When data were available, we calculated pooled effect estimates. We included 20 studies with data on 67,237 participants (median age 61 years; range 52 to 64 years). Twelve trials randomised participants to alirocumab, three trials to bococizumab, one to RG7652, and four to evolocumab. Owing to the small number of trials using agents other than alirocumab, we did not differentiate between types of PCSK9 inhibitors used. We compared PCSK9 inhibitors with placebo (thirteen RCTs), ezetimibe (two RCTs) or ezetimibe and statins (five RCTs).Compared with placebo, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased LDL-C by 53.86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 58.64 to 49.08; eight studies; 4782 participants; GRADE: moderate) at 24 weeks; compared with ezetimibe, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased LDL-C by 30.20% (95% CI 34.18 to 26.23; two studies; 823 participants; GRADE: moderate), and compared with ezetimibe and statins, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased LDL-C by 39.20% (95% CI 56.15 to 22.26; five studies; 5376 participants; GRADE: moderate).Compared with placebo, PCSK9 inhibitors decreased the risk of CVD events, with a risk difference (RD) of 0.91% (odds ratio (OR) of 0.86, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.92; eight studies; 59,294 participants; GRADE: moderate). Compared with ezetimibe and statins, PCSK9 inhibitors appeared to have a stronger protective effect on CVD risk, although with considerable uncertainty (RD 1.06%, OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.75; three studies; 4770 participants; GRADE: very low). No data were available for the ezetimibe only comparison. Compared with placebo, PCSK9 probably had little or no effect on mortality (RD 0.03%, OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.14; 12 studies; 60,684 participants; GRADE: moderate). Compared with placebo, PCSK9 inhibitors increased the risk of any adverse events (RD 1.54%, OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.12; 13 studies; 54,204 participants; GRADE: low). Similar effects were observed for the comparison of ezetimibe and statins: RD 3.70%, OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.34; four studies; 5376 participants; GRADE: low. Clinical event data were unavailable for the ezetimibe only comparison. Over short-term to medium-term follow-up, PCSK9 inhibitors reduced LDL-C. Studies with medium-term follow-up time (longest median follow-up recorded was 26 months) reported that PCSK9 inhibitors (compared with placebo) decreased CVD risk but may have increased the risk of any adverse events (driven by SPIRE-1 and -2 trials). Available evidence suggests that PCSK9 inhibitor use probably leads to little or no difference in mortality. Evidence on relative efficacy and safety when PCSK9 inhibitors were compared with active treatments was of low to very low quality (GRADE); follow-up times were short and events were few. Large trials with longer follow-up are needed to evaluate PCSK9 inhibitors versus active treatments as well as placebo. Owing to the predominant inclusion of high-risk patients in these studies, applicability of results to primary prevention is limited. Finally, estimated risk differences indicate that PCSK9 inhibitors only modestly change absolute risks (often to less than 1%).

Aromatherapy: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cooke, B; Ernst, E

2000-06-01

Aromatherapy is becoming increasingly popular; however there are few clear indications for its use. To systematically review the literature on aromatherapy in order to discover whether any clinical indication may be recommended for its use, computerised literature searches were performed to retrieve all randomised controlled trials of aromatherapy from the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, British Nursing Index, CISCOM, and AMED. The methodological quality of the trials was assessed using the Jadad score. All trials were evaluated independently by both authors and data were extracted in a pre-defined, standardised fashion. Twelve trials were located: six of them had no independent replication; six related to the relaxing effects of aromatherapy combined with massage. These studies suggest that aromatherapy massage has a mild, transient anxiolytic effect. Based on a critical assessment of the six studies relating to relaxation, the effects of aromatherapy are probably not strong enough for it to be considered for the treatment of anxiety. The hypothesis that it is effective for any other indication is not supported by the findings of rigorous clinical trials.

Aromatherapy: a systematic review.

PubMed Central

Cooke, B; Ernst, E

2000-01-01

Aromatherapy is becoming increasingly popular; however there are few clear indications for its use. To systematically review the literature on aromatherapy in order to discover whether any clinical indication may be recommended for its use, computerised literature searches were performed to retrieve all randomised controlled trials of aromatherapy from the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, British Nursing Index, CISCOM, and AMED. The methodological quality of the trials was assessed using the Jadad score. All trials were evaluated independently by both authors and data were extracted in a pre-defined, standardised fashion. Twelve trials were located: six of them had no independent replication; six related to the relaxing effects of aromatherapy combined with massage. These studies suggest that aromatherapy massage has a mild, transient anxiolytic effect. Based on a critical assessment of the six studies relating to relaxation, the effects of aromatherapy are probably not strong enough for it to be considered for the treatment of anxiety. The hypothesis that it is effective for any other indication is not supported by the findings of rigorous clinical trials. PMID:10962794

Theoretical implications of quantitative properties of interval timing and probability estimation in mouse and rat.

PubMed

Kheifets, Aaron; Freestone, David; Gallistel, C R

2017-07-01

In three experiments with mice ( Mus musculus ) and rats (Rattus norvigicus), we used a switch paradigm to measure quantitative properties of the interval-timing mechanism. We found that: 1) Rodents adjusted the precision of their timed switches in response to changes in the interval between the short and long feed latencies (the temporal goalposts). 2) The variability in the timing of the switch response was reduced or unchanged in the face of large trial-to-trial random variability in the short and long feed latencies. 3) The adjustment in the distribution of switch latencies in response to changes in the relative frequency of short and long trials was sensitive to the asymmetry in the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The three results suggest that durations are represented with adjustable precision, that they are timed by multiple timers, and that there is a trial-by-trial (episodic) record of feed latencies in memory. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Prediction scores do not correlate with clinically adjudicated categories of pulmonary embolism in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Katsios, Christina; Donadini, Marco; Meade, Maureen; Mehta, Sangeeta; Hall, Richard; Granton, John; Kutsogiannis, Jim; Dodek, Peter; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; McIntyre, Lauralynn; Vlahakis, Nikolas; Muscedere, John; Friedrich, Jan; Fowler, Robert; Skrobik, Yoanna; Albert, Martin; Cox, Michael; Klinger, James; Nates, Joseph; Bersten, Andrew; Doig, Chip; Zytaruk, Nicole; Crowther, Mark; Cook, Deborah J

2014-01-01

Prediction scores for pretest probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) validated in outpatient settings are occasionally used in the intensive care unit (ICU). To evaluate the correlation of Geneva and Wells scores with adjudicated categories of PE in ICU patients. In a randomized trial of thromboprophylaxis, patients with suspected PE were adjudicated as possible, probable or definite PE. Data were then retrospectively abstracted for the Geneva Diagnostic PE score, Wells, Modified Wells and Simplified Wells Diagnostic scores. The chance-corrected agreement between adjudicated categories and each score was calculated. ANOVA was used to compare values across the three adjudicated PE categories. Among 70 patients with suspected PE, agreement was poor between adjudicated categories and Geneva pretest probabilities (kappa=0.01 [95% CI -0.0643 to 0.0941]) or Wells pretest probabilities (kappa=-0.03 [95% CI -0.1462 to 0.0914]). Among four possible, 16 probable and 50 definite PEs, there were no significant differences in Geneva scores (possible = 4.0, probable = 4.7, definite = 4.5; P=0.90), Wells scores (possible = 2.8, probable = 4.9, definite = 4.1; P=0.37), Modified Wells (possible = 2.0, probable = 3.4, definite = 2.9; P=0.34) or Simplified Wells (possible = 1.8, probable = 2.8, definite = 2.4; P=0.30). Pretest probability scores developed outside the ICU do not correlate with adjudicated PE categories in critically ill patients. Research is needed to develop prediction scores for this population.

Intensive glycaemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomised clinical trials.

PubMed

Hemmingsen, Bianca; Lund, Søren S; Gluud, Christian; Vaag, Allan; Almdal, Thomas; Hemmingsen, Christina; Wetterslev, Jørn

2011-11-24

To assess the effect of targeting intensive glycaemic control versus conventional glycaemic control on all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, microvascular complications, and severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. Systematic review with meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses of randomised trials. Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, and CINAHL to December 2010; hand search of reference lists and conference proceedings; contacts with authors, relevant pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration. Randomised clinical trials comparing targeted intensive glycaemic control with conventional glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. Published and unpublished trials in all languages were included, irrespective of predefined outcomes. Two reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data related to study methods, interventions, outcomes, risk of bias, and adverse events. Risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated with fixed and random effects models. Fourteen clinical trials that randomised 28,614 participants with type 2 diabetes (15,269 to intensive control and 13,345 to conventional control) were included. Intensive glycaemic control did not significantly affect the relative risks of all cause (1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.13; 28,359 participants, 12 trials) or cardiovascular mortality (1.11, 0.92 to 1.35; 28,359 participants, 12 trials). Trial sequential analyses rejected a relative risk reduction above 10% for all cause mortality and showed insufficient data on cardiovascular mortality. The risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction may be reduced (relative risk 0.85, 0.76 to 0.95; P=0.004; 28,111 participants, 8 trials), but this finding was not confirmed in trial sequential analysis. Intensive glycaemic control showed a reduction of the relative risks for the composite microvascular outcome (0.88, 0.79 to 0.97; P=0.01; 25,600 participants, 3 trials) and retinopathy (0.80, 0.67 to 0.94; P=0.009; 10,793 participants, 7 trials), but trial sequential analyses showed that sufficient evidence had not yet been reached. The estimate of an effect on the risk of nephropathy (relative risk 0.83, 0.64 to 1.06; 27,769 participants, 8 trials) was not statistically significant. The risk of severe hypoglycaemia was significantly increased when intensive glycaemic control was targeted (relative risk 2.39, 1.71 to 3.34; 27,844 participants, 9 trials); trial sequential analysis supported a 30% increased relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia. Intensive glycaemic control does not seem to reduce all cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Data available from randomised clinical trials remain insufficient to prove or refute a relative risk reduction for cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, composite microvascular complications, or retinopathy at a magnitude of 10%. Intensive glycaemic control increases the relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia by 30%.

Treatments for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP): an overview of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Oaklander, Anne Louise; Lunn, Michael Pt; Hughes, Richard Ac; van Schaik, Ivo N; Frost, Chris; Chalk, Colin H

2017-01-13

Chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP) is a chronic progressive or relapsing and remitting disease that usually causes weakness and sensory loss. The symptoms are due to autoimmune inflammation of peripheral nerves. CIPD affects about 2 to 3 per 100,000 of the population. More than half of affected people cannot walk unaided when symptoms are at their worst. CIDP usually responds to treatments that reduce inflammation, but there is disagreement about which treatment is most effective. To summarise the evidence from Cochrane systematic reviews (CSRs) and non-Cochrane systematic reviews of any treatment for CIDP and to compare the effects of treatments. We considered all systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of any treatment for any form of CIDP. We reported their primary outcomes, giving priority to change in disability after 12 months.Two overview authors independently identified published systematic reviews for inclusion and collected data. We reported the quality of evidence using GRADE criteria. Two other review authors independently checked review selection, data extraction and quality assessments.On 31 October 2016, we searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (in theCochrane Library), MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL Plus for systematic reviews of CIDP. We supplemented the RCTs in the existing CSRs by searching on the same date for RCTs of any treatment of CIDP (including treatment of fatigue or pain in CIDP), in the Cochrane Neuromuscular Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL Plus. Five CSRs met our inclusion criteria. We identified 23 randomised trials, of which 15 had been included in these CSRs. We were unable to compare treatments as originally planned, because outcomes and outcome intervals differed. CorticosteroidsIt is uncertain whether daily oral prednisone improved impairment compared to no treatment because the quality of the evidence was very low (1 trial, 28 participants). According to moderate-quality evidence (1 trial, 41 participants), six months' treatment with high-dose monthly oral dexamethasone did not improve disability more than daily oral prednisolone. Observational studies tell us that prolonged use of corticosteroids sometimes causes serious side-effects. Plasma exchangeAccording to moderate-quality evidence (2 trials, 59 participants), twice-weekly plasma exchange produced more short-term improvement in disability than sham exchange. In the largest observational study, 3.9% of plasma exchange procedures had complications. Intravenous immunoglobulinAccording to high-quality evidence (5 trials, 269 participants), intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) produced more short-term improvement than placebo. Adverse events were more common with IVIg than placebo (high-quality evidence), but serious adverse events were not (moderate-quality evidence, 3 trials, 315 participants). One trial with 19 participants provided moderate-quality evidence of little or no difference in short-term improvement of impairment with plasma exchange in comparison to IVIg. There was little or no difference in short-term improvement of disability with IVIg in comparison to oral prednisolone (moderate-quality evidence; 1 trial, 29 participants) or intravenous methylprednisolone (high-quality evidence; 1 trial, 45 participants). One unpublished randomised open trial with 35 participants found little or no difference in disability after three months of IVIg compared to oral prednisone; this trial has not yet been included in a CSR. We know from observational studies that serious adverse events related to IVIg do occur. Other immunomodulatory treatmentsIt is uncertain whether the addition of azathioprine (2 mg/kg) to prednisone improved impairment in comparison to prednisone alone, as the quality of the evidence is very low (1 trial, 27 participants). Observational studies show that adverse effects truncate treatment in 10% of people.According to low-quality evidence (1 trial, 60 participants), compared to placebo, methotrexate 15 mg/kg did not allow more participants to reduce corticosteroid or IVIg doses by 20%. Serious adverse events were no more common with methotrexate than with placebo, but observational studies show that methotrexate can cause teratogenicity, abnormal liver function, and pulmonary fibrosis.According to moderate-quality evidence (2 trials, 77 participants), interferon beta-1a (IFN beta-1a) in comparison to placebo, did not allow more people to withdraw from IVIg. According to moderate-quality evidence, serious adverse events were no more common with IFN beta-1a than with placebo.We know of no other completed trials of immunosuppressant or immunomodulatory agents for CIDP. Other treatmentsWe identified no trials of treatments for fatigue or pain in CIDP. Adverse effectsNot all trials routinely collected adverse event data; when they did, the quality of evidence was variable. Adverse effects in the short, medium, and long term occur with all interventions. We are not able to make reliable comparisons of adverse events between the interventions included in CSRs. We cannot be certain based on available evidence whether daily oral prednisone improves impairment compared to no treatment. However, corticosteroids are commonly used, based on widespread availability, low cost, very low-quality evidence from observational studies, and clinical experience. The weakness of the evidence does not necessarily mean that corticosteroids are ineffective. High-dose monthly oral dexamethasone for six months is probably no more or less effective than daily oral prednisolone. Plasma exchange produces short-term improvement in impairment as determined by neurological examination, and probably produces short-term improvement in disability. IVIg produces more short-term improvement in disability than placebo and more adverse events, although serious side effects are probably no more common than with placebo. There is no clear difference in short-term improvement in impairment with IVIg when compared with intravenous methylprednisolone and probably no improvement when compared with either oral prednisolone or plasma exchange. According to observational studies, adverse events related to difficult venous access, use of citrate, and haemodynamic changes occur in 3% to17% of plasma exchange procedures.It is uncertain whether azathioprine is of benefit as the quality of evidence is very low. Methotrexate may not be of benefit and IFN beta-1a is probably not of benefit.We need further research to identify predictors of response to different treatments and to compare their long-term benefits, safety and cost-effectiveness. There is a need for more randomised trials of immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory agents, routes of administration, and treatments for symptoms of CIDP.