Sample records for triggering storm rainfall
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jakob, Matthias; Weatherly, Hamish
2003-09-01
Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m 3/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is -1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.
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Thirty-one years of debris-flow observation and monitoring near La Honda, California, USA
Wieczorek, G.F.; Wilson, R.C.; Ellen, S.D.; Reid, M.E.; Jayko, A.S.
2007-01-01
From 1975 until 2006,18 intense storms triggered at least 248 debris flows within 10 km2 northwest of the town of La Honda within the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In addition to mapping debris flows and other types of landslides, studies included soil sampling and geologic mapping, piezometric and tensiometer monitoring, and rainfall measurement and recording. From 1985 until 1995, a system with radio telemetered rain gages and piezometers within the La Honda region was used for issuing six debris-flow warnings within the San Francisco Bay region through the NOAA ALERT system. Depending upon the relative intensity of rainfall during storms, debris flows were generated from deep slumps, shallow slumps, shallow slides in colluvium and shallow slides over bedrock. Analysis shows the storms with abundant antecedent rainfall followed by several days of steady heavy intense rainfall triggered the most abundant debris flows. ?? 2007 millpress.
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A new function for estimating local rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cepeda, J.; Nadim, F.; Høeg, K.; Elverhøi, A.
2009-04-01
The widely used power law for establishing rainfall thresholds for triggering of landslides was first proposed by N. Caine in 1980. The most updated global thresholds presented by F. Guzzetti and co-workers in 2008 were derived using Caine's power law and a rigorous and comprehensive collection of global data. Caine's function is defined as I = α×Dβ, where I and D are the mean intensity and total duration of rainfall, and α and β are parameters estimated for a lower boundary curve to most or all the positive observations (i.e., landslide triggering rainfall events). This function does not account for the effect of antecedent precipitation as a conditioning factor for slope instability, an approach that may be adequate for global or regional thresholds that include landslides in surface geologies with a wide range of subsurface drainage conditions and pore-pressure responses to sustained rainfall. However, in a local scale and in geological settings dominated by a narrow range of drainage conditions and behaviours of pore-pressure response, the inclusion of antecedent precipitation in the definition of thresholds becomes necessary in order to ensure their optimum performance, especially when used as part of early warning systems (i.e., false alarms and missed events must be kept to a minimum). Some authors have incorporated the effect of antecedent rainfall in a discrete manner by first comparing the accumulated precipitation during a specified number of days against a reference value and then using a Caine's function threshold only when that reference value is exceeded. The approach in other authors has been to calculate threshold values as linear combinations of several triggering and antecedent parameters. The present study is aimed to proposing a new threshold function based on a generalisation of Caine's power law. The proposed function has the form I = (α1×Anα2)×Dβ, where I and D are defined as previously. The expression in parentheses is equivalent to Caine's α parameter. α1, α2 and β are parameters estimated for the threshold. An is the n-days cumulative rainfall. The suggested procedure to estimate the threshold is as follows: (1) Given N storms, assign one of the following flags to each storm: nL (non-triggering storms), yL (triggering storms), uL (uncertain-triggering storms). Successful predictions correspond to nL and yL storms occurring below and above the threshold, respectively. Storms flagged as uL are actually assigned either an nL or yL flag using a randomization procedure. (2) Establish a set of values of ni (e.g. 1, 4, 7, 10, 15 days, etc.) to test for accumulated precipitation. (3) For each storm and each ni value, obtain the antecedent accumulated precipitation in ni days Ani. (4) Generate a 3D grid of values of α1, α2 and β. (5) For a certain value of ni, generate confusion matrices for the N storms at each grid point and estimate an evaluation metrics parameter EMP (e.g., accuracy, specificity, etc.). (6) Repeat the previous step for all the set of ni values. (7) From the 3D grid corresponding to each ni value, search for the optimum grid point EMPopti(global minimum or maximum parameter). (8) Search for the optimum value of ni in the space ni vs EMPopti . (9) The threshold is defined by the value of ni obtained in the previous step and the corresponding values of α1, α2 and β. The procedure is illustrated using rainfall data and landslide observations from the San Salvador volcano, where a rainfall-triggered debris flow destroyed a neighbourhood in the capital city of El Salvador in 19 September, 1982, killing not less than 300 people.
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Jacobson, Robert B.; McGeehin, John P.; Cron, Elizabeth D.; Carr, Carolyn E.; Harper, John M.; Howard, Alan D.
1993-01-01
More than 3,000 landslides were triggered by heavy rainfall in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia and Virginia, November 3-5, 1985. These landslides provided the opportunity to study spatial controls on landslides, magnitude and frequency of triggering events, and the effects of landslides on flood-induced geomorphic change. The study area consists of parts of the Wills Mountain anticline, a major NE-trending structure in the central Appalachians, and a portion of the adjacent Appalachian Plateau. Across the anticline and adjacent plateau, bedrock lithologies vary markedly and include pure marine limestone, marine shale, deltaic mudstone/sandstone sequences, and orthoquartzites. Because of the geologic structure, bedrock lithology varies little along strike. The spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the storm was controlled primarily by rainfall, bedrock lithology, surficial lithology, land cover, and slope morphology. The triggering rainfall was of moderate intensity and long duration. Two-day storm totals varied from 170 mm to more than 240 mm in the study area. Most landslides occurred at the northeast end of the study area, where 48-h rainfall totals were in excess of 200 mm. Different rainfall thresholds are apparent for triggering landslides on different bedrock lithologies. The highest density of landslides occurred in shallow colluvium and residuum of the Reedsville Shale (Ordovician), followed by regolith of the Greenbriar and Mauch Chunk Groups (Mississippian). Most of the landslides in these fine-grained regoliths were shallow slides and slumps, many of which transformed to mudflows and delivered sediment directly to streams; a smaller number of debris avalanches were triggered high on quartzite ridges.Instability of colluvium and residuum derived from the Reedsville Shale, compared with regolith from four other fine-grained bedrock lithologies, is attributable to its low strength combined with moderate infiltration rates that allowed soil moisture to accumulate under the moderate intensities of the rainfall. Slopes covered by coarse, cobbly debris flow and alluvial deposits, mostly of Pleistocene age, were very stable due to their low slope angles and high frictional strength. For a particular bedrock lithology, the spatial distribution of landslides appears controlled by interdependent influences of slope morphology and land cover. On the Reedsville Shale, most landslides occurred on north- to northeast-facing slopes, which might have had higher antecedent levels of soil moisture; these slopes have also been preferentially cleared because they produce better pasture forage for livestock. A secondary concentration of landslides on south- to southwest-facing slopes cannot be explained by conventional soil-moisture models. Landslide density was 100--200 percent higher on cleared land than on forested land. On pastured land, most landslides occurred on laterally planar slopes, but on forested land, most landslides occurred in slope positions that were laterally concave (hillslope hollows). Compared with other documented Appalachian storms that have triggered landslides, the November 1985 storm had lower rainfall intensities over longer durations. Comparison with these other storms suggests that the anomalously high degree of slope instability in 1985 is due to the long duration of low-intensity rainfall on fine-grained regolith derived from shale; the triggering rainfall can be approximated by the 48-h storm total. Landslide density in Reedsville Shale regolith is linearly related to the varying 48-h rainfall along the anticline. These data define a probabilistic model that estimates return intervals of 43 to 300 yr for landslide densities ranging from 1 to 70 landslides/km2. Analysis of flood-induced geomorphic changes in 79 small drainage basins that received 210-240 mm of rainfall showed a clear local association between landslides and channel erosion or deposition adjacent to where the landslides delivered sediment to the stream. When channel change was quantified using an index evaluated at each basin mouth, most of the channel change was attributable to the influence of basin morphology on flood discharge. Landslide density in the basins was of secondary, although measurable, importance in explaining flood-induced channel changes at the basin scale.
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Cannon, S.H.; Gartner, J.E.; Wilson, R.C.; Bowers, J.C.; Laber, J.L.
2008-01-01
Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings. Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10??min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3??h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1??h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D-??0.7 and I = 9.5D-??0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours). Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16??h, of low-intensity (2-10??mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33??h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D-0.4, and I = 7.2D-0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D-0.5 is approximately 25??mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires. The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes. Crown Copyright ?? 2007.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Boldt, Eric M.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme; Staley, Dennis M.
2010-01-01
Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies are faced often with making evacuation decisions and deploying resources both well in advance of each coming winter storm and during storms themselves. Information critical to this process is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for the San Gabriel Mountains twice a day, at approximately 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., along with unscheduled updates when conditions change. QPFs provide estimates of rainfall totals in 3-hour increments for the first 12-hour period and in 6-hour increments for the second 12-hour period. Estimates of one-hour rainfall intensities can be provided in the forecast narrative, along with probable peak intensities and timing, although with less confidence than rainfall totals. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands was used to develop a system for classifying the magnitude of the postfire hydrologic response. The four-class system is based on a combination of the reported volume of individual debris flows, the consequences of these events in an urban setting, and the spatial extent of the response to the triggering storm. Threshold rainfall conditions associated with debris flow and floods of different magnitude classes are defined by integrating local rainfall data with debris-flow and flood magnitude information. The within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) and durations (D) above which magnitude I events are expected are defined by A=0.3D0.6. The function A=0.5D0.6 defines the within-storm rainfall accumulations and durations above which a magnitude III event will occur in response to a regional-scale storm, and a magnitude II event will occur if the storm affects only a few drainage basins. The function A=1.0D0.5defines the rainfall conditions above which magnitude III events can be expected. Rainfall trigger-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions in the form of an emergency-response decision chart. The chart leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes, and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels as a function of either individual storm forecasts or measured precipitation during storms. The ability to use this information in the planning and response decision-making process may result in significant financial savings and increased safety for both the public and emergency responders.
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Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Eaton, L. Scott; Morgan, Benjamin A.; Wooten, R.M.; Morrissey, M.
2009-01-01
Generally, every several years, heavy amounts of rainfall trigger a large number of debris flows within the central and southern Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States. These types of landslides damage buildings, disrupt infrastructure, and occasionally injure and kill people. One of the first large debris flows was described in Pennsylvania in August 1779. The most destructive event occurred during August 19-20, 1969, in Nelson County, Va. During a period of 8 hours, 710 to 800 milimeters of rain triggered more than 3,000 landslides, killing more than 150 people. As the population increases in this region, future storms will likely increase the risks of property damage and loss of life. We provide a general overview of debris flows in the Appalachians, using a compilation of 19 storm events for which rainfall, duration of the storm, and descriptions of the resulting landslides have been substantially documented.
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Richard M. Wooten; Anne C. Witt; Chelcy F. Miniat; Tristram C. Hales; Jennifer L. Aldred
2016-01-01
Landsliding is a recurring process in the southern Appalachian Highlands (SAH) region of the Central Hardwood Region. Debris flows, dominant among landslide processes in the SAH, are triggered when rainfall increases pore-water pressures in steep, soil-mantled slopes. Storms that trigger hundreds of debris flows occur about every 9 years and those that...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hürlimann, Marcel; Abancó, Clàudia; Moya, Jose; Berenguer, Marc
2015-04-01
Empirical rainfall thresholds are a widespread technique in debris-flow hazard assessment and can be established by statistical analysis of historic data. Typically, data from one or several rain gauges located nearby the affected catchment is used to define the triggering conditions. However, this procedure has been demonstrated not to be accurate enough due to the spatial variability of convective rainstorms. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, 28 torrential flows (debris flows and debris floods) have occurred and rainfall data of 25 of them are available with a 5-minutes frequency of recording ("event rainfalls"). Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger events ("no event rainfalls) were also collected and analysed. The goal of this work was threefold: a) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential events and others that did not; b) define and test Intensity-Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment; c) estimate the uncertainty derived from the use of rain gauges located outside the catchment based on the spatial correlation depicted by radar rainfall maps. The results of the statistical analysis showed that the parameters that more distinguish between the two populations of rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total precipitation. On the other side, the storm duration and the antecedent rainfall are not significantly different between "event rainfalls" and "no event rainfalls". Four different ID rainfall thresholds were derived based on the dataset of the first 5 years and tested using the 2014 dataset. The results of the test indicated that the threshold corresponding to the 90% percentile showed the best performance. Weather radar data was used to analyse the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that rain gauges outside the catchment may be considered useful or not to describe the rainfall depending on the type of rainfall. For widespread rainfalls, further rain gauges can give a reliable measurement, because the spatial correlation decreases slowly with the distance between the rain gauge and the debris-flow initiation area. Contrarily, local storm cells show higher space-time variability and, therefore, representative rainfall measurements are obtained only by the closest rain gauges. In conclusion, the definition of rainfall thresholds is a delicate task. When the rainfall records are coming from gauges that are outside the catchment under consideration, the data should be carefully analysed and crosschecked with radar data (especially for small convective cells).
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Larsen, M.C.; Torres-Sanchez, A. J.
1996-01-01
Landslide occurrence is common in mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high and hillslopes are steep. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Landslide maps developed from 1:20,000 scale aerial photographs in combination with a computerized geographic information system were used to evaluate the landslide potential in the Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo Basins of Puerto Rico. These basins, ranging in surface area from 276 to 350 square kilometers, are described in this report. The basins represent a broad range of the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that occur in Puerto Rico. In addition, a variety of landslide types were documented. Rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. The most important temporal control on landslide occurrence in Puerto Rico is storm rainfall. Forty-one storms triggered widespread landsliding about 1 to 2 times per year during the last three decades. These storms were frequently of 1 to 2 days duration in which, on average, several hundred millimeters of rainfall triggered tens to hundreds of landslides in the central mountains. Most of these storms were tropical disturbances that occurred during the hurricane season of June through November. Land use and the topographic characteristics of hillslope angle, elevation, and aspect are the most important spatial controls governing landslide frequency. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12 degrees in gradient and about 350 meters in elevation, and face the east-northeast are most prone to landsliding. Bedrock geology and soil order seem less important in the determination of landslide frequency, at least when considered at a generalized level. A rainfall accumulation-duration relation for the triggering of numerous landslides throughout the central mountains, and a set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three river basins were developed and are described in this report. These two elements provide a basis for the estimation of the temporal and spatial controls on landslide occurrence in Puerto Rico. Finally, this approach is an example of a relatively inexpensive technique for landslide hazard analysis that may be applicable to other settings.
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Harp, Edwin L.; Reid, Mark E.; Michael, John A.
2004-01-01
More than 250 landslides were triggered across the eastern volcanic islands of Chuuk State in the Federated States of Micronesia by torrential rainfall from tropical storm Chata?an on July 2, 2002. Landslides triggered during nearly 20 inches of rainfall in less than 24 hours caused 43 fatalities and the destruction or damage of 231 structures, including homes, schools, community centers, and medical dispensaries. Landslides also buried roads, crops, and water supplies. The landslides ranged in volume from a few cubic meters to more than 1 million cubic meters. Most of the failures began as slumps and transformed into debris flows, some of which traveled several hundred meters across coastal flatlands into populated areas. A landslide-inventory map produced after the storm shows that the island of Tonoas had the largest area affected by landslides, although the islands of Weno, Fefan, Etten, Uman, Siis, Udot, Eot, and Fanapanges also had significant landslides. Based on observations since the storm, we estimate the continuing hazard from landslides triggered by Chata?an to be relatively low. However, tropical storms and typhoons similar to Chata?an frequently develop in Micronesia and are likely to affect the islands of Chuuk in the future. To assess the landslide hazard from future tropical storms, we produced a hazard map that identifies landslide-source areas of high, moderate, and low hazard. This map can be used to identify relatively safe areas for relocating structures or establishing areas where people could gather for shelter in relative safety during future typhoons or tropical storms similar to Chata?an.
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Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flows at La Honda, California
Wilson, R.C.; Wieczorek, G.F.
1995-01-01
A simple numerical model, based on the physical analogy of a leaky barrel, can simulate significant features of the interaction between rainfall and shallow-hillslope pore pressures. The leaky-barrel-model threshold is consistent with, but slightly higher than, an earlier, purely empirical, threshold. The number of debris flows triggered by a storm can be related to the time and amount by which the leaky-barrel-model response exceeded the threshold during the storm. -from Authors
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abancó, C.; Hürlimann, M.; Sempere, D.; Berenguer, M.
2012-04-01
Torrential processes such as debris flows or hyperconcentrated flows are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They occur in steep torrents and suppose a high risk for the human settlements. Rainfall is the most common triggering factor for debris flows. The rainfall threshold defines the rainfall conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to provoke one or more events. Many different types of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering have been defined. Direct measurements of rainfall data are normally not available from a point next to or in the surroundings of the initiation area of the landslide. For this reason, most of the thresholds published for debris flows have been established by data measured at the nearest rain gauges (often located several km far from the landslide). Only in very few cases, the rainfall data to analyse the triggering conditions of the debris flows have been obtained by weather (Doppler) radar. Radar devices present certain limitations in mountainous regions due to undesired reboots, but their main advantage is that radar data can be obtained for any point of the territory. The objective of this work was to test the use of the weather radar data for the definition of rainfall thresholds for debris-flow triggering. Thus, rainfall data obtained from 3 to 5 rain gauges and from radar were compared for a dataset of events occurred in Catalonia (Spain). The goal was to determine in which cases the description of the rainfall episode (in particular the maximum intensity) had been more accurate. The analysed dataset consists of: 1) three events occurred in the Rebaixader debris-flow monitoring station (Axial Pyrenees) including two hyperconcentrated flows and one debris flow; 2) one debris-flow event occurred in the Port Ainé ski resort (Axial Pyrenees); 3) one debris-flow event in Montserrat (Mediterranean Coastal range). The comparison of the hyetographs from the different devices showed that the reliability of the radar is higher for short, high intensity storms more than for long lasting, medium intensity ones. Additionally, the best fit corresponds to the situations where the storm nucleus is located near the source area of the debris flow. The results of the comparison between different rain gauges show similar trends. The ones located in the same valley as the debris flow usually show good results, but if there are orographic elements in-between the debris-flow torrent and the rain gauge or the distance is large, the results can imply a great error in the definition of rainfall intensity. Therefore, we can state that the reliability of the use of the weather radar to define rainfall thresholds is strongly depending on the type of the storm and the distance between the source area and the nucleus of the storm.
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Jacobson, Robert B.; Cron, Elizabeth D.; McGeehin, John P.
1989-01-01
Study of slope movements triggered by the storm of November 3–5, 1985, in the central Appalachian Mountains, U.S.A., has helped to define the meteorologic conditions leading to slope movements and the relative importance of land cover, bedrock, surficial geology, and geomorphology in slope movement location. This long-duration rainfall at moderate intensities triggered more than 1,000 slope movements in a 1,040-km2 study area. Most were shallow slips and slip-flows in thin colluvium and residuum on shale slopes. Locations of these failures were sensitive to land cover and slope aspect but were relatively insensitive to topographic setting. A few shallow slope movements were triggered by the same rainfall on interbedded limestone, shale, and sandstone. Several large debris slide-avalanches were triggered in sandstone regolith high on ridges in areas of the highest measured rainfall. Most of these sites were on slopes that dip 30 to 35° and lie parallel to bedding planes, presumably the sites of least stability.
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Wieczorek, G.F.; Larsen, M.C.; Eaton, L.S.; Morgan, B.A.; Blair, J.L.
2001-01-01
Heavy rainfall from the storm of December 14-16, 1999 triggered thousands of landslides on steep slopes of the Sierra de Avila north of Caracas, Venezuela. In addition to landslides, heavy rainfall caused flooding and massive debris flows that damaged coastal communities in the State of Vargas along the Caribbean Sea. Examination of the rainfall pattern obtained from the GOES-8 satellite showed that the pattern of damage was generally consistent with the area of heaviest rainfall. Field observations of the severely affected drainage basins and historical records indicate that previous flooding and massive debris-flow events of similar magnitude to that of December 1999 have occurred throughout this region. The volume of debris-flow deposits and the large boulders that the flows transported qualifies the 1999 event amongst the largest historical rainfall-induced debris flows documented worldwide.
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Estimating soil moisture exceedance probability from antecedent rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.; Kalansky, J.; Stock, J. D.; Collins, B. D.
2016-12-01
The first storms of the rainy season in coastal California, USA, add moisture to soils but rarely trigger landslides. Previous workers proposed that antecedent rainfall, the cumulative seasonal rain from October 1 onwards, had to exceed specific amounts in order to trigger landsliding. Recent monitoring of soil moisture upslope of historic landslides in the San Francisco Bay Area shows that storms can cause positive pressure heads once soil moisture values exceed a threshold of volumetric water content (VWC). We propose that antecedent rainfall could be used to estimate the probability that VWC exceeds this threshold. A major challenge to estimating the probability of exceedance is that rain gauge records are frequently incomplete. We developed a stochastic model to impute (infill) missing hourly precipitation data. This model uses nearest neighbor-based conditional resampling of the gauge record using data from nearby rain gauges. Using co-located VWC measurements, imputed data can be used to estimate the probability that VWC exceeds a specific threshold for a given antecedent rainfall. The stochastic imputation model can also provide an estimate of uncertainty in the exceedance probability curve. Here we demonstrate the method using soil moisture and precipitation data from several sites located throughout Northern California. Results show a significant variability between sites in the sensitivity of VWC exceedance probability to antecedent rainfall.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Ruette, J.; Lehmann, P.; Or, D.
2014-10-01
The occurrence of shallow landslides is often associated with intense and prolonged rainfall events, where infiltrating water reduces soil strength and may lead to abrupt mass release. Despite general understanding of the role of rainfall water in slope stability, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides remains a challenge due to natural heterogeneity that affect hydrologic loading patterns and the largely unobservable internal progressive failures. An often overlooked and potentially important factor is the role of rainfall variability in space and time on landslide triggering that is often obscured by coarse information (e.g., hourly radar data at spatial resolution of a few kilometers). To quantify potential effects of rainfall variability on failure dynamics, spatial patterns, landslide numbers and volumes, we employed a physically based "Catchment-scale Hydromechanical Landslide Triggering" (CHLT) model for a study area where a summer storm in 2002 triggered 51 shallow landslides. In numerical experiments based on the CHLT model, we applied the measured rainfall amount of 53 mm in different artificial spatiotemporal rainfall patterns, resulting in between 30 and 100 landslides and total released soil volumes between 3000 and 60,000 m3 for the various scenarios. Results indicate that low intensity rainfall below soil's infiltration capacity resulted in the largest mechanical perturbation. This study illustrates how small-scale rainfall variability that is often overlooked by present operational rainfall data may play a key role in shaping landslide patterns.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chitu, Zenaida; Bogaard, Thom; Busuioc, Aristita; Burcea, Sorin; Adler, Mary-Jeanne; Sandric, Ionut
2015-04-01
Like in many parts of the world, in Romania, landslides represent recurrent phenomena that produce numerous damages to infrastructure every few years. Various studies on landslide occurrence in the Curvature Subcarpathians reveal that rainfall represents the most important triggering factor for landslides. Depending on rainfall characteristics and environmental factors different types of landslides were recorded in the Ialomita Subcarpathians: slumps, earthflows and complex landslides. This area, located in the western part of Curvature Subcarpathians, is characterized by a very complex geology whose main features are represented by the nappes system, the post tectonic covers, the diapirism phenomena and vertical faults. This work aims to investigate hydrological pre-conditions and rainfall characteristics which triggered slope failures in 2014 in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, Romania. Hydrological pre-conditions were investigated by means of water balance analysis and low flow techniques, while spatial and temporal patterns of rainfalls were estimated using radar data and six rain gauges. Additionally, six soil moisture stations that are fitted with volumetric soil moisture sensors and temperature soil sensors were used to estimate the antecedent soil moisture conditions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel
2015-04-01
Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.
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Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides.
Parker, Robert N; Hales, Tristram C; Mudd, Simon M; Grieve, Stuart W D; Constantine, José A
2016-09-30
Shallow landslides, triggered by extreme rainfall, are a significant hazard in mountainous landscapes. The hazard posed by shallow landslides depends on the availability and strength of colluvial material in landslide source areas and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. Here we investigate how the time taken to accumulate colluvium affects landslide triggering rate in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA and how this may affect future landslide hazards. We calculated the failure potential of 283 hollows by comparing colluvium depths to the minimum (critical) soil depth required for landslide initiation in each hollow. Our data show that most hollow soil depths are close to their critical depth, with 62% of hollows having soils that are too thin to fail. Our results, supported by numerical modeling, reveal that landslide frequency in many humid landscapes may be insensitive to projected changes in the frequency of intense rainfall events.
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Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides
Parker, Robert N.; Hales, Tristram C.; Mudd, Simon M.; Grieve, Stuart W. D.; Constantine, José A.
2016-01-01
Shallow landslides, triggered by extreme rainfall, are a significant hazard in mountainous landscapes. The hazard posed by shallow landslides depends on the availability and strength of colluvial material in landslide source areas and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. Here we investigate how the time taken to accumulate colluvium affects landslide triggering rate in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA and how this may affect future landslide hazards. We calculated the failure potential of 283 hollows by comparing colluvium depths to the minimum (critical) soil depth required for landslide initiation in each hollow. Our data show that most hollow soil depths are close to their critical depth, with 62% of hollows having soils that are too thin to fail. Our results, supported by numerical modeling, reveal that landslide frequency in many humid landscapes may be insensitive to projected changes in the frequency of intense rainfall events. PMID:27688039
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Remaitre, Alexandre; Wallner, Stefan; Promper, Catrin; Glade, Thomas; Malet, Jean-Philippe
2013-04-01
Rainfall is worldwide a recognized trigger of landslides. Numerous studies were conducted in order to define the relationships between the precipitations and the triggering or the reactivation of landslides. Hydrological triggering of landslides can be divided in three general types: (1) development of local perched water tables in the subsoil leading to shallow slope instabilities and possible gravitational flows, (2) long-lasting rise in permanent water tables leading to more deep-seated slope instabilities, and (3) intense runoff causing channel-bed erosion and debris flows. Types (1) and (3) are usually observed during high rainfall intensities (hourly and daily rainfall) associated to heavy storms; type (2) is usually observed through increasing water content in the subsoil due to antecedent rainfalls (weekly or monthly rainfall) and/or massive snowmelt. Many investigations have been carried out to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger slopes failures. For rainfall-induced landslides a threshold may be define the rainfall, soil moisture or hydrological conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to trigger landslides. Usually rainfall thresholds can be defined on physical process-based or conceptual models or empirical, historical and statistical bases. Nevertheless, both the large variety of landslides and to the extreme variety of climatic conditions leading to the triggering or the reactivation of a landslide lead to a regional definition of relationships between landslide occurrence and associated climatic conditions. The purpose of this case study is to analyze the relationships between the triggering of three types of landslides, debris flows, shallow landslides and deep-seated mudslides, and different patterns of rainfall in two study sites with different physiographic and climatic characteristics: the Barcelonnette basin in the South French Alps and the Waidhofen an der Ybbs area in Lower Austria. For this purpose, we exploit for the two test sites a landslide catalogue and rainfall data series to define a typology of rainfall induced-landslides for the relevant landslide types. Results from an analysis of the rainfall conditions associated to these events at different time scale (yearly, monthly, daily and hourly) show a clear distinction between these landslides. Slow-moving landslides are often associated to persistent rainstorms with low intensities during long periods causing the saturation of the soils while fast-moving landslides are usually triggered by short rainfall events with high intensities that occur in summer.
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Morrissey, M.M.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Morgan, B.A.
2008-01-01
In 1969, Nelson County, Virginia received up to 71 cm of rain within 12 h starting at 7 p.m. on August 19. The total rainfall from the storm exceeded the 1000-year return period in the region. Several thousands of landslides were induced by rainfall associated with Hurricane Camille causing fatalities and destroying infrastructure. We apply a distributed transient response model for regional slope stability analysis to shallow landslides. Initiation points of over 3000 debris flows and effects of flooding from this storm are applied to the model. Geotechnical data used in the calculations are published data from samples of colluvium. Results from these calculations are compared with field observations such as landslide trigger location and timing of debris flows to assess how well the model predicts the spatial and temporal distribution. of landslide initiation locations. The model predicts many of the initiation locations in areas where debris flows are observed. Copyright ?? 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.
2007-01-01
Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. In the U.S. alone landslides occur in every state, causing an estimated $2 billion in damage and 25- 50 deaths each year. Annual average loss of life from landslide hazards in Japan is 170. The situation is much worse in developing countries and remote mountainous regions due to lack of financial resources and inadequate disaster management ability. Recently, a landslide buried an entire village on the Philippines Island of Leyte on Feb 17,2006, with at least 1800 reported deaths and only 3 houses left standing of the original 300. Intense storms with high-intensity , long-duration rainfall have great potential to trigger rapidly moving landslides, resulting in casualties and property damage across the world. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed datasets, it has become possible to conduct global-scale landslide hazard assessment. This paper evaluates the potential of the real-time NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system to advance our understanding of and predictive ability for rainfall-triggered landslides. Early results show that the landslide occurrences are closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslide occurrences and the relative importance of rainfall in triggering landslides rely on the influence of rainfall attributes [e.g. rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms). TMPA precipitation data are available in both real-time and post-real-time versions, which are useful to assess the location and timing of rainfall-triggered landslide hazards by monitoring landslide-prone areas while receiving heavy rainfall. For the purpose of identifying rainfall-triggered landslides, an empirical global rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed by examining a number of landslide occurrences and their corresponding TMPA precipitation characteristics across the world. These early results , in combination with TRMM real-time precipitation estimation system, may form a starting point for developing an operational early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides around the globe.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; Alkema, Dinand
2016-04-01
The aim of this study was to generate national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for four Caribbean islands, as part of the World Bank project CHARIM (Caribbean Handbook on Disaster Geoinformation Management, www.charim.net). This paper focuses on the results for the island country of Dominica, located in the Eastern part of the Caribbean, in-between Guadalupe and Martinique. The available data turned out to be insufficient to generate reliable results. We therefore generated a new database of disaster events for Dominica using all available data, making use of many different sources. We compiled landslide inventories for five recent rainfall events from the maintenance records of the Ministry of Public Works, and generated a completely new landslide inventory using multi-temporal visual image interpretation, and generated an extensive landslide database for Dominica. We analyzed the triggering conditions for landslides as far as was possible given the available data, and generated rainfall magnitude-frequency relations. We applied a method for landslide susceptibility assessment which combined bi-variate statistical analysis, that provided indications on the importance of the possible contributing factors, with an expert-based iterative weighing approach using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The method is transparent, as the stakeholders (e.g. the engineers and planners from the four countries) and other consultants can consult the criteria trees and evaluate the standardization and weights, and make adjustments. The landslide susceptibility map was converted into a landslide hazard map using landslide density and frequencies for so called major, moderate and minor triggering events. The landslide hazard map was produced in May 2015. A major rainfall event occurred on Dominica following the passage of tropical storm Erika on 26 to 28 August 2015. An event-based landslide inventory for this event was produced by UNOSAT using very high resolution optical images, and an additional field-based inventory was obtained from BRGM. These were used to analyze the predictive capabilities of the national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps. Although the spatial patterns of the landslide susceptibility map was fairly accurate in predicting the locations of the landslides triggered by the recent tropical storm, the landslide densities and related frequencies used for the hazard assessment turned out to deviate considerably taking into account the spatial landslide pattern and estimated frequency of rainfall for tropical storm Erika. This study demonstrates the importance of reconstructing landslide inventories for a variety of triggering events, and the requirement of including landslide inventory data of a major event in the hazard assessment.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Katzensteiner, H.; Bell, R.; Petschko, H.; Glade, T.
2012-04-01
The prediction and forecast of widespread landsliding for a given triggering event is an open research question. Numerous studies tried to link spatial rainfall and landslide distributions. This study focuses on analysing the relationship between intensive precipitation and rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in the year 2009 in Lower Austria. Landslide distributions were gained from the building ground register, which is maintained by the Geological Survey of Lower Austria. It contains detailed information of landslides, which were registered due to damage reports. Spatially distributed rainfall estimates were extracted from INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) precipitation analysis, which is a combination of station data interpolation and radar data in a spatial resolution of 1km developed by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria. The importance of the data source is shown by comparing rainfall data based on reference gauges, spatial interpolation and INCA-analysis for a certain storm period. INCA precipitation data can detect precipitating cells that do not hit a station but might trigger a landslide, which is an advantage over the application of reference stations for the definition of rainfall thresholds. Empirical thresholds at regional scale were determined based on rainfall-intensity and duration in the year 2009 and landslide information. These thresholds are dependent on the criteria which separate the landslide triggering and non-triggering precipitation events from each other. Different approaches for defining thresholds alter the shape of the threshold as well. A temporarily threshold I=8,8263*D^(-0.672) for extreme rainfall events in summer in Lower Austria was defined. A verification of the threshold with similar events of other years as well as following analyses based on a larger landslide database are in progress.
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Radar Rainfall Statistics During PECAN
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Romatschke, U.; Weckwerth, T.
2017-12-01
The Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, based in Kansas, USA, took place from May to July 2015. It was designed to understand the causes and improve predictions of the central US nocturnal precipitation maximum. Over 100 instruments were utilized to sample the pre-convective and convective conditions within and around unorganized storms and Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). We analyze quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from a dense network of NEXRADs which, combined with S-Pol, cover an area extending from the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains over the Central Great Plains. As expected, precipitation maxima occurred during the afternoon and evening over the eastern Rocky Mountains and during the night over the plains. The precipitation over the mountains is almost exclusively associated with smaller scale storms which are triggered by solar heating over the elevated terrain. The mountain triggered storms quickly grow and merge to the size of MCSs and are then advected east over the plains. Storms are also initiated over the plains but at much lower frequency than over the mountains. The diurnal cycle of plain initiation is much less pronounced with a broad peak in the afternoon and evening but also significant convection initiation during the night. The nocturnal precipitation over the plains is primarily associated with the MCSs advected from the mountains which merge with the storms triggered over the plains. Some precipitation over the plains is generated by pristine storms triggered over the plains but their precipitation contribution is mostly secondary compared to the merged systems.
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Multivariate Statistical Models for Predicting Sediment Yields from Southern California Watersheds
Gartner, Joseph E.; Cannon, Susan H.; Helsel, Dennis R.; Bandurraga, Mark
2009-01-01
Debris-retention basins in Southern California are frequently used to protect communities and infrastructure from the hazards of flooding and debris flow. Empirical models that predict sediment yields are used to determine the size of the basins. Such models have been developed using analyses of records of the amount of material removed from debris retention basins, associated rainfall amounts, measures of watershed characteristics, and wildfire extent and history. In this study we used multiple linear regression methods to develop two updated empirical models to predict sediment yields for watersheds located in Southern California. The models are based on both new and existing measures of volume of sediment removed from debris retention basins, measures of watershed morphology, and characterization of burn severity distributions for watersheds located in Ventura, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties. The first model presented reflects conditions in watersheds located throughout the Transverse Ranges of Southern California and is based on volumes of sediment measured following single storm events with known rainfall conditions. The second model presented is specific to conditions in Ventura County watersheds and was developed using volumes of sediment measured following multiple storm events. To relate sediment volumes to triggering storm rainfall, a rainfall threshold was developed to identify storms likely to have caused sediment deposition. A measured volume of sediment deposited by numerous storms was parsed among the threshold-exceeding storms based on relative storm rainfall totals. The predictive strength of the two models developed here, and of previously-published models, was evaluated using a test dataset consisting of 65 volumes of sediment yields measured in Southern California. The evaluation indicated that the model developed using information from single storm events in the Transverse Ranges best predicted sediment yields for watersheds in San Bernardino, Los Angeles, and Ventura Counties. This model predicts sediment yield as a function of the peak 1-hour rainfall, the watershed area burned by the most recent fire (at all severities), the time since the most recent fire, watershed area, average gradient, and relief ratio. The model that reflects conditions specific to Ventura County watersheds consistently under-predicted sediment yields and is not recommended for application. Some previously-published models performed reasonably well, while others either under-predicted sediment yields or had a larger range of errors in the predicted sediment yields.
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A Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System: Development and Application in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zeng, Ziyue; Tang, Guoqiang; Long, Di; Ma, Meihong; Hong, Yang
2016-04-01
Flash floods and landslides, triggered by storms, often interact and cause cascading effects on human lives and property. Satellite remote sensing data has significant potential use in analysis of these natural hazards. As one of the regions continuously affected by severe flash floods and landslides, Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, has a complex mountainous hydrometeorology and suffers from frequent heavy rainfalls from May through to late September. Taking Yunnan as a test-bed, this study proposed a Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System to progressively analysis and evaluate the risk of the multi-hazards based on multisource satellite remote sensing data. First, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 1h and maximum 6h amount) from the products of Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) were used as rainfall indicators to derive the StorM Hazard Index (SMHI). In this process, an integrated approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Information-Entropy theory was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator. Then, land cover and vegetation cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, soil type from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil map, and slope from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data were add as semi-static geo-topographical indicators to derive the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI). Furthermore, three more relevant landslide-controlling indicators, including elevation, slope angle and soil text were involved to derive the LandSlide Hazard Index (LSHI). Further inclusion of GDP, population and prevention measures as vulnerability indicators enabled to consecutively predict the risk of storm to flash flood and landslide, respectively. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the hazard indices show that the southeast of Yunnan has more possibility to encounter with storms than other parts, while the northeast of Yunnan are most susceptible to floods and landslides, which agrees with the distribution of observed flood and landslide events. Moreover, risks for the multi-hazards were classified into four categories. Results show a strong correlation between the distributions of flash flood prone and landslide-prone regions and also highlight the counties with high risk of storms (e.g., Funing and Malipo), flash floods (e.g., Gongshan and Yanjing) and landslides (e.g., Zhaotong and Luxi). Compared to other approaches, the Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System uses a straightforward yet useful indicator-based weighted linear combination method and could be a useful prototype in mapping characteristics of storm-triggered hazards for users at different administrative levels (e.g., catchment, town, county, province and even nation) in China.
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Generalised form of a power law threshold function for rainfall-induced landslides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cepeda, Jose; Díaz, Manuel Roberto; Nadim, Farrokh; Høeg, Kaare; Elverhøi, Anders
2010-05-01
The following new function is proposed for estimating thresholds for rainfall-triggered landslides: I = α1Anα2Dβ, where I is rainfall intensity in mm/h, D is rainfall duration in h, An is the n-hours or n-days antecedent precipitation, and α1, α2, β and n are threshold parameters. A threshold model that combines two functions with different durations of antecedent precipitation is also introduced. A storm observation exceeds the threshold when the storm parameters are located at or above the two functions simultaneously. A novel optimisation procedure for estimating the threshold parameters is proposed using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. The new threshold function and optimisation procedure are applied for estimating thresholds for triggering of debris flows in the Western Metropolitan Area of San Salvador (AMSS), El Salvador, where up to 500 casualties were produced by a single event. The resulting thresholds are I = 2322 A7d-1D-0.43 and I = 28534 A150d-1D-0.43 for debris flows having volumes greater than 3000 m3. Thresholds are also derived for debris flows greater than 200 000 m3 and for hyperconcentrated flows initiating in burned areas caused by forest fires. The new thresholds show an improved performance compared to the traditional formulations, indicated by a reduction in false alarms from 51 to 5 for the 3000 m3 thresholds and from 6 to 0 false alarms for the 200 000 m3 thresholds.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abancó, Clàudia; Hürlimann, Marcel; Moya, José; Berenguer, Marc
2016-10-01
Torrential flows like debris flows or debris floods are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They generally occur in steep torrents and pose high risk in mountainous areas. Rainfall is their most common triggering factor and the analysis of the critical rainfall conditions is a fundamental research task. Due to their wide use in warning systems, rainfall thresholds for the triggering of torrential flows are an important outcome of such analysis and are empirically derived using data from past events. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, rainfall data of 25 torrential flows (;TRIG rainfalls;) were recorded, with a 5-min sampling frequency. Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger torrential flows (;NonTRIG rainfalls;) were also collected and analyzed. The goal of this work was threefold: (i) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential flows and others that did not; (ii) define and test Intensity-Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment by with different techniques; (iii) analyze how the criterion used for defining the rainfall duration and the spatial variability of rainfall influences the value obtained for the thresholds. The statistical analysis of the rainfall characteristics showed that the parameters that discriminate better the TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total rainfall amount. The antecedent rainfall was not significantly different between TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls, as it can be expected when the source material is very pervious (a sandy glacial soil in the study site). Thresholds were derived from data collected at one rain gauge located inside the catchment. Two different methods were applied to calculate the duration and intensity of rainfall: (i) using total duration, Dtot, and mean intensity, Imean, of the rainfall event, and (ii) using floating durations, D, and intensities, Ifl, based on the maximum values over floating periods of different duration. The resulting thresholds are considerably different (Imean = 6.20 Dtot-0.36 and Ifl_90% = 5.49 D-0.75, respectively) showing a strong dependence on the applied methodology. On the other hand, the definition of the thresholds is affected by several types of uncertainties. Data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that the precipitation recorded by the nearby rain gauges can introduce major uncertainties, especially for convective summer storms. Thus, incorporating radar rainfall can significantly improve the accuracy of the measured triggering rainfall. Finally, thresholds were also derived according to three different criteria for the definition of the duration of the triggering rainfall: (i) the duration until the peak intensity, (ii) the duration until the end of the rainfall; and, (iii) the duration until the trigger of the torrential flow. An important contribution of this work is the assessment of the threshold relationships obtained using the third definition of duration. Moreover, important differences are observed in the obtained thresholds, showing that ID relationships are significantly dependent on the applied methodology.
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T.L. Rogerson
1980-01-01
A simple simulation model to predict rainfall for individual storms in central Arkansas is described. Output includes frequency distribution tables for days between storms and for storm size classes; a storm summary by day number (January 1 = 1 and December 31 = 365) and rainfall amount; and an annual storm summary that includes monthly values for rainfall and number...
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Williams-Sether, Tara; Asquith, William H.; Thompson, David B.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Fang, Xing
2004-01-01
A database of incremental cumulative-rainfall values for storms that occurred in small urban and rural watersheds in north and south central Texas during the period from 1959 to 1986 was used to develop empirical, dimensionless, cumulative-rainfall hyetographs. Storm-quartile classifications were determined from the cumulative-rainfall values, which were divided into data groups on the basis of storm-quartile classification (first, second, third, fourth, and first through fourth combined), storm duration (0 to 6, 6 to 12, 12 to 24, 24 to 72, and 0 to 72 hours), and rainfall amount (1 inch or more). Removal of long leading tails, in effect, shortened the storm duration and, in some cases, affected the storm-quartile classification. Therefore, two storm groups, untrimmed and trimmed, were used for analysis. The trimmed storms generally are preferred for interpretation. For a 12-hour or less trimmed storm duration, approximately 49 percent of the storms are first quartile. For trimmed storm durations of 12 to 24 and 24 to 72 hours, 47 and 38 percent, respectively, of the storms are first quartile. For a trimmed storm duration of 0 to 72 hours, the first-, second-, third-, and fourth-quartile storms accounted for 46, 21, 20, and 13 percent of all storms, respectively. The 90th-percentile curve for first-quartile storms indicated about 90 percent of the cumulative rainfall occurs during the first 20 percent of the storm duration. The 10th-percentile curve for first-quartile storms indicated about 30 percent of the cumulative rainfall occurs during the first 20 percent of the storm duration. The 90th-percentile curve for fourth-quartile storms indicated about 33 percent of the cumulative rainfall occurs during the first 20 percent of the storm duration. The 10th-percentile curve for fourth-quartile storms indicated less than 5 percent of the cumulative rainfall occurs during the first 20 percent of the storm duration. Statistics for the empirical, dimensionless, cumulative-rainfall hyetographs are presented in the report along with hyetograph curves and tables. The curves and tables presented do not present exact mathematical relations but can be used to estimate distributions of rainfall with time for small drainage areas of less than about 160 square miles in urban and small rural watersheds in north and south central Texas.
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Jacobson, Robert B.; Cron, Elizabeth D.; McGeehin, John P.
1987-01-01
During the first five days of November 1985, a low-pressure system in the Ohio River valley combined with a low-pressure system referred to as Tropical Storm Juan to produce heavy rainfall in the Potomac, James, and Rappahannock River basins. Severe flooding accompanied the rainfall; 43 lives were lost and the flood was estimated to be the most expensive natural disaster of 1985 in the United States (Scatena, 1986). The rainfall also triggered many slope failures. An especially large concentration of slope failures was associated with an area of moderate rainfall centered in the Germany Valley in Pendleton County, West Virginia (fig. 4.1A ). This report describes some preliminary results from our continuing research into the geological and meteorological controls on the distributions of slope failures in the Germany Valley area. The Germany Valley is the first major anticlinal valley in the Valley and Ridge province east of the Allegheny structural front (Diecchio, 1986). Our interest is focused on the portion from near Mouth of Seneca, West Virginia, in the Onego 7 .5-minute quadrangle, to near Mill Gap, Virginia, in the Mustoe 7.5-minute quadrangle (patterned in figs. 4.1 and 4.2). This area was a natural experiment for studying the effects of the storm because rainfall varied systematically from southwest to northeast along the valley, while bedrock lithology and structure are nearly constant. Furthermore, variation of rock types across the valley allows comparisons among lithologies at given levels of precipitation. The valley is floored by Ordovician carbonates of the Trenton, Black River, and St. Paul Groups and shales of the Martinsburg (Reedsville) Shale. The ridges are formed by sandstones of the Tuscarora and Oswego Sandstones, and the Juniata formation. The southwestern quarter of the valley is drained by Back Creek of the James River basin, and the remainder of the valley drains north and west to the North Fprk of the South Branch Potomac River.
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Coe, Jeffrey A.; Michael, John A.; Burgos, Marianela Mercado
2011-01-01
This 1:12,000-scale map shows an inventory of debris flows caused by rainfall during 1996 in a 94.4 km2 area in the southern Coast Range of Oregon. This map and associated digital data are part of a larger U.S. Geological Survey study of debris flows in the southern Coast Range. Available evidence indicates that the flows were triggered by a rain storm that occurred between November 17 and 19. The closest rain gage in the Coast Range (Goodwin Peak) recorded 245 mm during the storm. Maximum rainfall intensity during the storm was 13.2 mm/hr on November 18. Debris flows were photogrammetrically mapped from 1:12,000-scale aerial photographs flown in May, 1997. The inventory is presented on imagery derived from LiDAR data acquired in 2008. We classified mapped debris flows into four categories based on the type of debris-flow activity: (1) discrete slide source areas, (2) predominantly erosion, (3) predominantly transport or mixed erosion and deposition, and (4) predominantly deposition. Locations of woody-debris jams are also shown on the map. The area encompassed by debris flows is 2.1 percent of the 94.4 km2 map area.
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Introducing hydrological information in rainfall intensity-duration thresholds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom
2016-04-01
Regional landslide hazard assessment is mainly based on empirically derived precipitation-intensity-duration (PID) thresholds. Generally, two features of rainfall events are plotted to discriminate between observed occurrence and absence of occurrence of mass movements. Hereafter, a separation line is drawn in logarithmic space. Although successfully applied in many case studies, such PID thresholds suffer from many false positives as well as limited physical process insight. One of the main limitations is indeed that they do not include any information about the hydrological processes occurring along the slopes, so that the triggering is only related to rainfall characteristics. In order to introduce such an hydrological information in the definition of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide triggering assessment, in this study the introduction of non-dimensional rainfall characteristics is proposed. In particular, rain storm depth, intensity and duration are divided by a characteristic infiltration depth, a characteristic infiltration rate and a characteristic duration, respectively. These latter variables depend on the hydraulic properties and on the moisture state of the soil cover at the beginning of the precipitation. The proposed variables are applied to the case of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits in Cervinara (southern Italy), for which experimental data of hourly rainfall and soil suction were available. Rainfall thresholds defined with the proposed non-dimensional variables perform significantly better than those defined with dimensional variables, either in the intensity-duration plane or in the depth-duration plane.
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Collins, Brian D.; Stock, Jonathan; Weber, Lisa C.; Whitman, K.; Knepprath, N.
2012-01-01
Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California, USA often trigger shallow landslides. Some of these landslides mobilize into potentially hazardous debris flows. A growing body of research indicates that rainfall intensity-duration thresholds are insufficient for accurate prediction of landslide occurrence. In response, we have begun long-term monitoring of the hydrologic response of land-slide-prone hillslopes to rainfall in several areas of the SFBA. Each monitoring site is equipped with sensors for measuring soil moisture content and piezometric pressure at several soil depths along with a rain gauge connected to a cell phone or satellite telemetered data logger. The data are transmitted in near-real-time, providing the ability to monitor hydrologic conditions before, during, and after storms. Results are guiding the establishment of both antecedent and storm-specific rainfall and moisture content thresholds which must be achieved before landslide-causative positive pore water pressures are generated. Although widespread shallow landsliding has not yet occurred since the deployment of the monitoring sites, several isolated land-slides have been observed in the area of monitoring. The landslides occurred during a period when positive pore water pressures were measured as a result of intense rainfall that followed higher-than-average season precipitation totals. Continued monitoring and analysis will further guide the establishment of more general-ized thresholds for different regions of the SFBA and contribute to the development and calibration of physi-cally-based predictive models.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Fukuoka, H.
2011-12-01
The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. An early warning system applying such physical models has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island in Indonesia and Honduras. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping or hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically-based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium). The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a Factor of Safety (FS) that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. The system's prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory. In Java Island, Indonesia, evaluation of SLIDE modeling results by local news reports shows that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Further study of SLIDE is implemented in Honduras where Hurricane Mitch triggered widespread landslides in 1998. Results shows within the approximately 1,200 square kilometers study areas, the values of hit rates reached as high as 78% and 75%, while the error indices were 35% and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited in the early warning system by several assumptions including, using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this model will be discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. In conclusion, integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets and physical models in this prototype system enable us to further develop a regional early warning tool in the future for forecasting storm-induced landslides.
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Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.
2011-01-01
In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.
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A statistical model of extreme storm rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.
1990-02-01
A model of storm rainfall is developed for the central Appalachian region of the United States. The model represents the temporal occurrence of major storms and, for a given storm, the spatial distribution of storm rainfall. Spatial inhomogeneities of storm rainfall and temporal inhomogeneities of the storm occurrence process are explicitly represented. The model is used for estimating recurrence intervals of extreme storms. The parameter estimation procedure developed for the model is based on the substitution principle (method of moments) and requires data from a network of rain gages. The model is applied to a 5000 mi2 (12,950 km2) region in the Valley and Ridge Province of Virginia and West Virginia.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino
2016-04-01
Assessment of shallow landslide hazard is important for appropriate planning of mitigation measures. Generally, return period of slope instability is assumed as a quantitative metric to map landslide triggering hazard on a catchment. The most commonly applied approach to estimate such return period consists in coupling a physically-based landslide triggering model (hydrological and slope stability) with rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Among the drawbacks of such an approach, the following assumptions may be mentioned: (1) prefixed initial conditions, with no regard to their probability of occurrence, and (2) constant intensity-hyetographs. In our work we propose the use of a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to investigate the effects of the two above mentioned assumptions. The approach is based on coupling a physically based hydrological and slope stability model with a stochastic rainfall time series generator. By this methodology a long series of synthetic rainfall data can be generated and given as input to a landslide triggering physically based model, in order to compute the return period of landslide triggering as the mean inter-arrival time of a factor of safety less than one. In particular, we couple the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model for hourly rainfall generation and the TRIGRS v.2 unsaturated model for the computation of transient response to individual rainfall events. Initial conditions are computed by a water table recession model that links initial conditions at a given event to the final response at the preceding event, thus taking into account variable inter-arrival time between storms. One-thousand years of synthetic hourly rainfall are generated to estimate return periods up to 100 years. Applications are first carried out to map landslide triggering hazard in the Loco catchment, located in highly landslide-prone area of the Peloritani Mountains, Sicily, Italy. Then a set of additional simulations are performed in order to compare the results obtained by the traditional IDF-based method with the Monte Carlo ones. Results indicate that both variability of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity significantly affect return period estimation. In particular, the common assumption of an initial water table depth at the base of the pervious strata may lead in practice to an overestimation of return period up to one order of magnitude, while the assumption of constant-intensity hyetographs may yield an overestimation by a factor of two or three. Hence, it may be concluded that the analysed simplifications involved in the traditional IDF-based approach generally imply a non-conservative assessment of landslide triggering hazard.
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Rainfall and Erosion Response Following a Southern California Wildfire
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wohlgemuth, P. M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Brown, R. E.
2011-12-01
Wildfire renders landscapes susceptible to flooding and accelerated surface erosion. Consumption of the vegetation canopy and the litter or duff layer removes resistances to the agents of erosion. Moreover, changes in soil properties can restrict infiltration, increasing the effectiveness of the driving forces of rainsplash and surface runoff. However, it is unclear whether surface erosion varies linearly with rainfall amounts and intensities or if thresholds exist beyond which erosion increases in a different trajectory. The Santiago Fire burned over 11000 ha in northeastern Orange County, California in October 2007. The burn area consists of a deeply dissected mountain block underlain by sedimentary and metamorphic rocks that produce erosive soils. Regional erosion and sediment transport is triggered by winter cyclonic storms. Recording raingages were deployed across a vertical gradient within the burned area and silt fences were constructed to monitor hillslope erosion. During the study period initial storms were characterized by moderate rainfall (amounts less than 25 mm with peak 10-minute intensities of less than 10 mm per hr). Surface erosion was concomitantly minor, less than 0.4 Mg per ha. However, an unusual thunderstorm in late May 2008 produced spatially variable rainfall and consequent surface erosion across the study area. The raingage at a lower elevation site measured 41.4 mm of rain for this storm with a peak 10-minute intensity of 81 mm per hr. The silt fences were overtopped, yielding a minimum value of 18.5 Mg per ha. In contrast, the raingage at an upper elevation site recorded 19.6 mm of rain with a peak 10-minute intensity of 50 mm per hr. Surface erosion in the higher elevation sites was negligible (0.1 Mg per ha). Subsequently, individual storms exceeded 100 mm of rainfall but peak 10-minute intensities never approached those of the May thunderstorm. Erosion was moderate (mostly less than 5 Mg per ha), albeit influenced by the presence of regrowing vegetation. We therefore believe that surface erosion in the immediate postfire environment is more related to storm intensity than rainfall amount. Even allowing for site-to-site differences and site changes over the first postfire winter season, it is clear that some threshold in erosion response was crossed at the lower elevation sites during the May 2008 thunderstorm. We suggest that this represents a threshold of peak 10-minute intensity of between 50 and 80 mm per hr.
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Rain fall data for the design of sewer pipe systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnell, V.
1982-03-01
A comparison of designs of sewer pipes for different types of rainfall data is presented. Local coefficients were evaluated from an 18-year historical rainfall record for the following design storms: The Average-Intensity-Duration Design Storm, The Chicago Design Storm, The Sifalda Design Storm, The Illinois State Water Survey Design Storm, and The Flood Studies Report Design Storm. Historical rainfalls as well as the above design storms were used for the calculations of peak-flow values.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Collins, B. D.; Stock, J. D.; Godt, J. W.
2012-12-01
Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California often trigger widespread landsliding, including debris flows that originate as shallow (<3 m) landslides. The strongest storms result in the loss of lives and millions of dollars in damage. Whereas precipitation-based rainfall intensity-duration landslide initiation thresholds are available for the SFBA, antecedent soil moisture conditions also play a major role in determining the likelihood for landslide generation from a given storm. Previous research has demonstrated that antecedent triggering conditions can be obtained using pre-storm precipitation thresholds (e.g., 250-400 mm of seasonal pre-storm rainfall). However, these types of thresholds do not account for the often cyclic pattern of wetting and drying that can occur early in the winter storm season (i.e. October - December), and which may skew the applicability of precipitation-only based thresholds. To account for these cyclic and constantly evolving soil moisture conditions, we have pursued methods to measure soil moisture directly and integrate these measurements into predictive analyses. During the past three years, the USGS installed a series of four subsurface hydrology monitoring stations in shallow landslide-prone locations of the SFBA to establish a soil-moisture-based antecedent threshold. In addition to soil moisture sensors, the monitoring stations are each equipped with piezometers to record positive pore water pressure that is likely required for shallow landslide initiation and a rain gauge to compare storm intensities with existing precipitation-based thresholds. Each monitoring station is located on a natural, grassy hillslope typically composed of silty sands, underlain by sandstone, sloping at approximately 30°, and with a depth to bedrock of approximately 1 meter - conditions typical of debris flow generation in the SFBA. Our observations reveal that various locations respond differently to seasonal precipitation, with some areas (e.g., Marin County) remaining at higher levels of saturation for longer periods of time during the winter compared to other areas (e.g., the East Bay Hills). In general, this coincides directly with relative precipitation totals in each region (i.e., Marin county typically receives more rainfall over a longer period of time than the East Bay). In those areas that are saturated for longer periods, the shallow landslide hazard is prolonged because these conditions are first needed for storm-related precipitation to subsequently generate positive pore pressure on the failure plane. Both piezometric field measurements and limit equilibrium slope stability analyses indicate that positive pore pressure is required for most shallow landslide failures to occur in the study regions. Based on measurements from two of the sites, our analyses further indicate that at least 2 kPa of pressure is required to trigger shallow landsliding. We measured this pressure at one of our sites in 2011, where more than 30 landslides, including several that mobilized into debris flows, occurred. Additional monitoring at these sites will be used to further constrain and refine antecedent moisture-based thresholds for shallow landslide initiation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iadanzaa, Carla; Rianna, Maura; Orlando, Dario; Ubertini, Lucio; Napolitano, Francesco
2013-10-01
The aim of the paper is the identification of rain events that trigger landslides through the use of an exponential method to separate stochastic independent events. This activity is carried out within the definition of empirical rainfall thresholds for debris flows and shallow landslides. The study area is the Trento district, which is located in the northeast zone of an Alpine area. The work evaluates the factors that affect the variability in space and time of the critical duration of each rain gauge, defined as the minimum dry period duration that separates two rainy periods that are stochastically independent.
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Characteristics of Landslide Size Distribution in Response to Different Rainfall Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Y.; Lan, H.; Li, L.
2017-12-01
There have long been controversies on the characteristics of landslide size distribution in response to different rainfall scenarios. For inspecting the characteristics, we have collected a large amount of data, including shallow landslide inventory with landslide areas and landslide occurrence times recorded, and a longtime daily rainfall series fully covering all the landslide occurrences. Three indexes were adopted to quantitatively describe the characteristics of landslide-related rainfall events, which are rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, and the number of rainy days. The first index, rainfall duration, is derived from the exceptional character of a landslide-related rainfall event, which can be explained in terms of the recurrence interval or return period, according to the extreme value theory. The second index, rainfall intensity, is the average rainfall in this duration. The third index is the number of rainy days in this duration. These three indexes were normalized using the standard score method to ensure that they are in the same order of magnitude. Based on these three indexes, landslide-related rainfall events were categorized by a k-means method into four scenarios: moderate rainfall, storm, long-duration rainfall, and long-duration intermittent rainfall. Then, landslides were in turn categorized into four groups according to the scenarios of rainfall events related to them. Inverse-gamma distribution was applied to characterize the area distributions of the four different landslide groups. A tail index and a rollover of the landslide size distribution can be obtained according to the parameters of the distribution. Characteristics of landslide size distribution show that the rollovers of the size distributions of landslides related to storm and long-duration rainfall are larger than those of landslides in the other two groups. It may indicate that the location of rollover may shift right with the increase of rainfall intensity and the extension of rainfall duration. In addition, higher rainfall intensities are prone to trigger larger rainfall-induced landslides since the tail index of landslide area distribution are smaller for higher rainfall intensities, which indicate higher probabilities of large landslides.
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Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.
2009-01-01
Loss of life and property caused by landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events demonstrates the need for landslide-hazard assessment in developing countries where recovery from such events often exceeds the country's resources. Mapping landslide hazards in developing countries where the need for landslide-hazard mitigation is great but the resources are few is a challenging, but not intractable problem. The minimum requirements for constructing a physically based landslide-hazard map from a landslide-triggering storm, using the simple methods we discuss, are: (1) an accurate mapped landslide inventory, (2) a slope map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) or topographic map, and (3) material strength properties of the slopes involved. Provided that the landslide distribution from a triggering event can be documented and mapped, it is often possible to glean enough topographic and geologic information from existing databases to produce a reliable map that depicts landslide hazards from an extreme event. Most areas of the world have enough topographic information to provide digital elevation models from which to construct slope maps. In the likely event that engineering properties of slope materials are not available, reasonable estimates can be made with detailed field examination by engineering geologists or geotechnical engineers. Resulting landslide hazard maps can be used as tools to guide relocation and redevelopment, or, more likely, temporary relocation efforts during severe storm events such as hurricanes/typhoons to minimize loss of life and property. We illustrate these methods in two case studies of lethal landslides in developing countries: Tegucigalpa, Honduras (during Hurricane Mitch in 1998) and the Chuuk Islands, Micronesia (during Typhoon Chata'an in 2002).
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Simulation of Tornado over Brahmanbaria on 22 March 2013 using Doppler Weather Radar and WRF Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Das, M. K.; Chowdhury, M.; Das, S.
2013-12-01
A tornado accompanied with thunderstorm, rainfall and hailstorm affected Brahmanbaria of Bangladesh in the afternoon of 22 March 2013. The tornadic storms are studied based on field survey, ground and radar observations. Low level moisture influx by southerly flow from the Bay of Bengal coupled with upper level westerly jet stream causing intense instability and shear in the wind fields triggered a series of storms for the day. The exact time and locations of the storms are investigated by using the Agartala and Cox's Bazar Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). Subsequently, the storms are simulated by using the WRF-ARW model at 1 km horizontal resolution based on 6 hourly analyses and boundary conditions of NCEP-FNL. Among the typical characteristics of the storms, the CAPE, surface wind speed, flow patterns, T-Φ gram, rainfall, sea level pressure, vorticity and vertical velocity are studied. Results show that while there are differences of 2-3 hours between the observed and simulated time of the storms, the distances between observed and simulated locations of the storms are several tens of kilometers. The maximum CAPE was generally above 2400 J kg-1 in the case. The maximum intensity of surface wind speed simulated by the model was only 38 m sec-1. This seems to be underestimated. The highest vertical velocity (updraft) simulated by the model was 250 m sec-1 around 800-950 hPa. The updraft reached up to 150 hPa. It seems that the funnel vortex reached the ground, and might have passed some places a few meters above the surface. According to the Fujita Pearson scale, this tornado can be classified as F-2 with estimated wind speed of 50-70 ms-1. Keywords: Tornado, DWR, NCEP-FNL, T-Φ gram, CAPE.
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Hurricane Harvey Rainfall, Did It Exceed PMP and What are the Implications?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kappel, B.; Hultstrand, D.; Muhlestein, G.
2017-12-01
Rainfall resulting from Hurricane Harvey reached historic levels over the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana during the last week of August 2017. Although extreme rainfall from this landfalling tropical system is not uncommon in the region, Harvey was unique in that it persisted over the same general location for several days, producing volumes of rainfall not previously observed in the United States. Devastating flooding and severe stress to infrastructure in the region was the result. Coincidentally, Applied Weather Associates had recently completed an updated statewide Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) study for Texas. This storm proved to be a real-time test of the adequacy of those values. AWA calculates PMP following a storm-based approach. This same approach was use in the HMRs. Therefore inclusion of all PMP-type storms is critically important to ensuring that appropriate PMP values are produced. This presentation will discuss the analysis of the Harvey rainfall using the Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS) program used to analyze all storms used in PMP development, compare the results of the Harvey rainfall analysis against previous similar storms, and provide comparisons of the Harvey rainfall against previous and current PMP depths. Discussion will be included regarding the implications of the storm on previous and future PMP estimates, dam safety design, and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme flooding.
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Landslide triggering by rain infiltration
Iverson, Richard M.
2000-01-01
Landsliding in response to rainfall involves physical processes that operate on disparate timescales. Relationships between these timescales guide development of a mathematical model that uses reduced forms of Richards equation to evaluate effects of rainfall infiltration on landslide occurrence, timing, depth, and acceleration in diverse situations. The longest pertinent timescale is A/D0, where D0 is the maximum hydraulic diffusivity of the soil and A is the catchment area that potentially affects groundwater pressures at a prospective landslide slip surface location with areal coordinates x, y and depth H. Times greater than A/D0 are necessary for establishment of steady background water pressures that develop at (x, y, H) in response to rainfall averaged over periods that commonly range from days to many decades. These steady groundwater pressures influence the propensity for landsliding at (x, y, H), but they do not trigger slope failure. Failure results from rainfall over a typically shorter timescale H2/D0 associated with transient pore pressure transmission during and following storms. Commonly, this timescale ranges from minutes to months. The shortest timescale affecting landslide responses to rainfall is √(H/g), where g is the magnitude of gravitational acceleration. Postfailure landslide motion occurs on this timescale, which indicates that the thinnest landslides accelerate most quickly if all other factors are constant. Effects of hydrologic processes on landslide processes across these diverse timescales are encapsulated by a response function, R(t*) = √(t*/π) exp (-1/t*) - erfc (1/√t*), which depends only on normalized time, t*. Use of R(t*) in conjunction with topographic data, rainfall intensity and duration information, an infinite-slope failure criterion, and Newton's second law predicts the timing, depth, and acceleration of rainfall-triggered landslides. Data from contrasting landslides that exhibit rapid, shallow motion and slow, deep-seated motion corroborate these predictions.
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Wilson, Raymond C.
1997-01-01
Broad-scale variations in long-term precipitation climate may influence rainfall/debris-flow threshold values along the U.S. Pacific coast, where both the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the number of rainfall days (#RDs) are controlled by topography, distance from the coastline, and geographic latitude. Previous authors have proposed that rainfall thresholds are directly proportional to MAP, but this appears to hold only within limited areas (< 1?? latitude), where rainfall frequency (#RDs) is nearly constant. MAP-normalized thresholds underestimate the critical rainfall when applied to areas to the south, where the #RDs decrease, and overestimate threshold rainfall when applied to areas to the north, where the #RDs increase. For normalization between climates where both MAP and #RDs vary significantly, thresholds may best be described as multiples of the rainy-day normal, RDN = MAP/#RDs. Using data from several storms that triggered significant debris-flow activity in southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, and the Pacific Northwest, peak 24-hour rainfalls were plotted against RDN values, displaying a linear relationship with a lower bound at about 14 RDN. RDN ratios in this range may provide a threshold for broad-scale regional forecasting of debris-flow activity.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Croghan, Danny; Van Loon, Anne; Bradley, Chris; Sadler, Jon; Hannnah, David
2017-04-01
Studies relating rainfall events to river water quality are frequently hindered by the lack of high resolution rainfall data. Local studies are particularly vulnerable due to the spatial variability of precipitation, whilst studies in urban environments require precipitation data at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The use of point-source data makes identifying causal effects of storms on water quality problematic and can lead to erroneous interpretations. High spatial and temporal resolution rainfall radar data offers great potential to address these issues. Here we use rainfall radar data with a 1km spatial resolution and 5 minute temporal resolution sourced from the UK Met Office Nimrod system to study the effects of storm events on water temperature (WTemp) in Birmingham, UK. 28 WTemp loggers were placed over 3 catchments on a rural-urban land use gradient to identify trends in WTemp during extreme events within urban environments. Using GIS, the catchment associated with each logger was estimated, and 5 min. rainfall totals and intensities were produced for each sub-catchment. Comparisons of rainfall radar data to meteorological stations in the same grid cell revealed the high accuracy of rainfall radar data in our catchments (<5% difference for studied months). The rainfall radar data revealed substantial differences in rainfall quantity between the three adjacent catchments. The most urban catchment generally received more rainfall, with this effect greatest in the highest intensity storms, suggesting the possibility of urban heat island effects on precipitation dynamics within the catchment. Rainfall radar data provided more accurate sub-catchment rainfall totals allowing better modelled estimates of storm flow, whilst spatial fluctuations in both discharge and WTemp can be simply related to precipitation intensity. Storm flow inputs for each sub-catchment were estimated and linked to changes in WTemp. WTemp showed substantial fluctuations (>1 °C) over short durations (<30 minutes) during storm events in urbanised sub-catchments, however WTemp recovery times were more prolonged. Use of the rainfall radar data allowed increased accuracy in estimates of storm flow timings and rainfall quantities at each sub-catchment, from which the impact of storm flow on WTemp could be quantified. We are currently using the radar data to derive thresholds for rainfall amount and intensity at which these storm deviations occur for each logger, from which the relative effects of land use and other catchment characteristics in each sub-catchment can be assessed. Our use of the rainfall radar data calls into question the validity of using station based data for small scale studies, particularly in urban areas, with high variation apparent in rainfall intensity both spatially and temporally. Variation was particularly high within the heavily urbanised catchment. For water quality studies, high resolution rainfall radar can be implemented to increase the reliability of interpretations of the response of water quality variables to storm water inputs in urban catchments.
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A Point Rainfall Generator With Internal Storm Structure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marien, J. L.; Vandewiele, G. L.
1986-04-01
A point rainfall generator is a probabilistic model for the time series of rainfall as observed in one geographical point. The main purpose of such a model is to generate long synthetic sequences of rainfall for simulation studies. The present generator is a continuous time model based on 13.5 years of 10-min point rainfalls observed in Belgium and digitized with a resolution of 0.1 mm. The present generator attempts to model all features of the rainfall time series which are important for flood studies as accurately as possible. The original aspects of the model are on the one hand the way in which storms are defined and on the other hand the theoretical model for the internal storm characteristics. The storm definition has the advantage that the important characteristics of successive storms are fully independent and very precisely modelled, even on time bases as small as 10 min. The model of the internal storm characteristics has a strong theoretical structure. This fact justifies better the extrapolation of this model to severe storms for which the data are very sparse. This can be important when using the model to simulate severe flood events.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Z.; Smith, J. A.; Yang, L.; Baeck, M. L.; Wright, D.; Liu, S.
2017-12-01
Regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall are critical for development of engineering hydrometeorology procedures. In conventional approaches, the assumptions that `design storms' have specified time profiles and are uniform in space are commonly applied but often not appropriate, especially over regions with heterogeneous environments (due to topography, water-land boundaries and land surface properties). In this study, we present regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall for Baltimore study region combining storm catalogs of rainfall fields derived from weather radar and stochastic storm transposition (SST, developed by Wright et al., 2013). The study region is Dead Run, a small (14.3 km2) urban watershed, in the Baltimore Metropolitan region. Our analyses build on previous empirical and modeling studies showing pronounced spatial heterogeneities in rainfall due to the complex terrain, including the Chesapeake Bay to the east, mountainous terrain to the west and urbanization in this region. We expand the original SST approach by applying a multiplier field that accounts for spatial heterogeneities in extreme rainfall. We also characterize the spatial heterogeneities of extreme rainfall distribution through analyses of rainfall fields in the storm catalogs. We examine the characteristics of regional extreme rainfall and derive intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves using the SST approach for heterogeneous regions. Our results highlight the significant heterogeneity of extreme rainfall in this region. Estimates of IDF show the advantages of SST in capturing the space-time structure of extreme rainfall. We also illustrate application of SST analyses for flood frequency analyses using a distributed hydrological model. Reference: Wright, D. B., J. A. Smith, G. Villarini, and M. L. Baeck (2013), Estimating the frequency of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm transposition, J. Hydrol., 488, 150-165.
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A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samuel, Jos M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu
2008-07-01
The effects of long-term natural climate variability and human-induced climate change on rainfall variability have become the focus of much concern and recent research efforts. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative analysis of observed multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in the Perth, Newcastle, and Darwin regions of Australia. This empirical and stochastic modeling analysis explores multiscale rainfall variability, i.e., ranging from short to long term, including within-storm patterns, and intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities, using data taken from each of these regions. The analyses investigated how storm durations, interstorm periods, and average storm rainfall intensities differ for different climate states and demonstrated significant differences in this regard between the three selected regions. In Perth, the average storm intensity is stronger during La Niña years than during El Niño years, whereas in Newcastle and Darwin storm duration is longer during La Niña years. Increase of either storm duration or average storm intensity is the cause of higher average annual rainfall during La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. On the other hand, within-storm variability does not differ significantly between different ENSO states in all three locations. In the case of long-term rainfall variability, the statistical analyses indicated that in Newcastle the long-term rainfall pattern reflects the variability of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, whereas in Perth and Darwin the long-term variability exhibits a step change in average annual rainfall (up in Darwin and down in Perth) which occurred around 1970. The step changes in Perth and Darwin and the switch in IPO states in Newcastle manifested differently in the three study regions in terms of changes in the annual number of rainy days or the average daily rainfall intensity or both. On the basis of these empirical data analyses, a stochastic rainfall time series model was developed that incorporates the entire range of multiscale variabilities observed in each region, including within-storm, intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Such ability to characterize, model, and synthetically generate realistic time series of rainfall intensities is essential for addressing many hydrological problems, including estimation of flood and drought frequencies, pesticide risk assessment, and landslide frequencies.
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Johnsson, P.A.; Reddy, M.M.
1990-01-01
This report describes a continuous wet-only precipitation monitor designed by the U.S. Geological Survey to record variations in rainfall temperature, pH, and specific conductance at 1-min intervals over the course of storms. Initial sampling in the Adirondack Mountains showed that rainfall acidity varied over the course of summer storms, with low initial pH values increasing as storm intensity increased.This report describes a continuous wet-only precipitation monitor designed by the U.S. Geological Survey to record variations in rainfall temperature, pH, and specific conductance at 1-min intervals over the course of storms. Initial sampling in the Adirondack Mountains showed that rainfall acidity varied over the course of summer storms, with low initial pH values increasing as storm intensity increased.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Antinao, J.; Farfan, L.
2012-12-01
The approach of Tropical Cyclone Juliette to the Baja California Peninsula in September 2001 triggered at least 419 landslides. Most of the landslides were shallow slips and debris slides, of limited areal extent, which were converted rapidly into debris flows to be exported quickly out of the mountain areas towards the lowlands. Main factors affecting landslide occurrence were total storm rainfall and intensity, aspect, geology and vegetation association. Two processes can be distinguished as initiating slope failure. The first process is linked to failures in concave topography, where accumulation of rainfall from exposed bedrock slopes generated excess overland flow that aggregated to generate a 'fire hose' effect on the base of slopes, mobilizing regolith. A second process involved a combination of wind and excess overland flow developed in the more convex or planar upper slopes, where heterogeneous regolith has formed in time following successional changes in vegetation associations along the oak-dry tropical forest ecotone. In this area, wind uprooted trees that dislodged large regolith and bedrock blocks, priming hillslopes for further runoff concentration. From the analysis of historical information, an estimative threshold curve for triggering landslides in this region is sketched. It was also determined that storms like Juliette approach the southern peninsula on average once every 100 years. Denudation estimates are in the higher end of the spectrum for a tectonically passive margin. These estimates should be considered when taking decisions regarding management of water resources in this area through damming of streams. The results emphasize the need for a more detailed representation of the spatial distribution of the rainfall and winds for this mountainous region frequently affected by the passage of tropical cyclones.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ogden, Fred L.
2016-11-01
Tropical Storm Erika was a weakly organized tropical storm when its center of circulation passed more than 150 km north of the island of Dominica on August 27, 2015. Hurricane hunter flights had difficulty finding the center of circulation as the storm encountered a high shear environment. Satellite and radar observations showed gyres imbedded within the broader circulation. Radar observations from Guadeloupe show that one of these gyres formed in convergent mid-level flow triggered by orographic convection over the island of Dominica. Gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data indicated between 300 and 750 mm of rainfall on Dominica, most of it over a four hour period. The result was widespread flooding, destruction of property, and loss of life. The extremity of the rainfall on steep watersheds covered with shallow soils was hypothesized to result in near-equilibrium runoff conditions where peak runoff rates equal the watershed-average peak rainfall rate minus a small constant loss rate. Rain gauge adjusted radar rainfall estimates and indirect peak discharge (IPD) measurements from 16 rivers at watershed areas ranging from 0.9 to 31.4 km2 using the USGS Slope-Area method allowed testing of this hypothesis. IPD measurements were compared against the global envelope of maximum observed flood peaks versus drainage area and against simulations using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to detect landslide-affected peak flows. Model parameter values were estimated from the literature. Reasonable agreement was found between GSSHA simulated peak flows and IPD measurements in some watersheds. Results showed that landslide dam failure affected peak flows in 5 of the 16 rivers, with peak flows significantly greater than the envelope curve values for the flood of record for like-sized watersheds on the planet. GSSHA simulated peak discharges showed that the remaining 11 peak flow values were plausible. Simulations of an additional 24 watersheds ranging in size from 2.2 to 75.4 km2 provided confirmation that the IPD measurements varied from 40 to nearly 100% of the envelope curve value depending on storm-total rainfall. Results presented in this paper support the hypothesis that on average, the peak discharges scaled linearly with drainage area, and the constant of proportionality was equivalent to 134 mm h-1, or a unit discharge of 37.22 m3 s-1 km-2. The results also indicate that after the available watershed storage was filled after approximately 450-500 mm of rain fell, runoff efficiencies exceeded 50-60%, and peak runoff rates were more than 80% of the peak rainfall rate minus a small constant loss rate of 20 mm h-1. These findings have important implications for design of resilient infrastructure, and means that rainfall rate was the primary determinant of peak flows once the available storage was filled in the absences of landslide dam failure.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo
2017-10-01
This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.
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Identifying a rainfall event threshold triggering herbicide leaching by preferential flow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McGrath, G. S.; Hinz, C.; Sivapalan, M.; Dressel, J.; Pütz, T.; Vereecken, H.
2010-02-01
How can leaching risk be assessed if the chemical flux and/or the toxicity is highly uncertain? For many strongly sorbing pesticides it is known that their transport through the unsaturated zone occurs intermittently through preferential flow, triggered by significant rainfall events. In these circumstances the timing and frequency of these rainfall events may allow quantification of leaching risk to overcome the limitations of flux prediction. In this paper we analyze the leaching behavior of bromide and two herbicides, methabenzthiazuron and ethidimuron, using data from twelve uncropped lysimeters, with high-resolution climate data, in order to identify the rainfall controls on rapid solute leaching. A regression tree analysis suggested that a coarse-scale fortnightly to monthly water balance was a good predictor of short-term increases in drainage and bromide transport. Significant short-term herbicide leaching, however, was better predicted by the occurrence of a single storm with a depth greater than a 19 mm threshold. Sampling periods where rain events exceeded this threshold accounted for between 38% and 56% of the total mass of herbicides leached during the experiment. The same threshold only accounted for between 1% and 10% of the total mass of bromide leached. On the basis of these results, we conclude that in this system, the leaching risks of strongly sorbing chemicals can be quantified by the timing and frequency of these large rainfall events. Empirical and modeling approaches are suggested to apply this frequentist approach to leaching risk assessment to other soil-climate systems.
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Landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in Tegucigalpa, Honduras
Harp, Edwin L.; Castaneda, Mario; Held, Matthew D.
2002-01-01
The arrival of Hurricane Mitch in Honduras in the latter part of the 1998 hurricane season produced effects that were unprecedented in their widespread nature throughout Central America. After winds from the storm had blown down more than 70 percent of the conifer forest on the Bay Island of Guanaja, the hurricane turned inland and stalled over the mainland of Honduras for 3 days. The resulting deluge of rainfall produced devastating flooding and landslides that resulted in more than 9,000 fatalities and 3 million people displaced. Although the eye of Hurricane Mitch passed through the northern part of Honduras, the greatest rainfall totals and intensities occurred in the southern part of the country near Choluteca. For the three days October 29-31, 1998, total rainfall at Choluteca exceeded 900 mm. Not surprisingly, it was in this area that the highest landslide concentrations occurred.
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Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.
Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J
2015-02-24
Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.
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A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
García-Bartual, Rafael; Andrés-Doménech, Ignacio
2017-05-01
The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Griffiths, P. G.; Webb, W. H.; Magirl, C. S.; Pytlak, E.
2008-12-01
An extreme, multi-day rainfall event over southeastern Arizona during 27-31 July 2006 culminated in an historically unprecedented spate of 435 slope failures and associated debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. Previous to this occurrence, only twenty small debris flows had been observed in this region over the past 100 years. Although intense orographic precipitation is routinely delivered by single- cell thunderstorms to the Santa Catalinas during the North American monsoon, in this case repeated nocturnal mesoscale convective systems were induced over southeastern Arizona by an upper-level low- pressure system centered over the Four Corners region for five continuous days, generating five-day rainfall totals up to 360 mm. Calibrating weather radar data with point rainfall data collected at 31 rain gages, mean-area storms totals for the southern Santa Catalina Mountains were calculated for 754 radar grid cells at a resolution of approximately 1 km2 to provide a detailed picture of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the event. Precipitation intensity for the 31 July storms was typical for monsoonal precipitation in this region, with peak 15-minute rainfall averaging 17 mm/hr for a recurrence interval (RI) < 1 yr. However, RI > 50 yrs for four-day rainfall totals overall, RI > 100 yrs where slope failures occurred, and RI > 1000 yrs for individual grid cells in the heart of the slope failure zone. A comparison of rainfall at locations where debris-flows did and did not occur suggests an intensity (I)-duration (D) threshold for debris flow occurrence for the Santa Catalina Mountains of I = 14.82D-0.39(I in mm/hr). This threshold falls slightly higher than the 1000-year rainfall predicted for this area. The relatively large exponent reflects the high frequency of short-duration, high-intensity rainfall and the relative rarity of the long-duration rainfall that triggered these debris flows. Analysis of the rainfall/runoff ratio in the drainage basin at the heart of the debris flows confirms that sediments were nearly saturated before debris flows were initiated on July 31.
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Flash floods along the Italian coastal areas: examples from Pozzuoli city, Campania, Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Esposito, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Giuseppe; Matano, Fabio; Mazzola, Salvatore; Sacchi, Marco
2014-05-01
The Italian western coastal areas are the most exposed in the country to low-pressure systems coming from the central-western Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. In the last years, many Italian coastal villages were struck by floods and flow processes triggered by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall, typical of flash flood events. In the Campania region (SW Italy) a series of events has caused several fatalities and heavy damages in the last decades, i.e. the flash floods of Casamicciola - Ischia Island (10/11/2009 - 1 fatality) and Atrani (9/9/2010 - 1 fatality). In this work we describe the rainfall properties and the ground effects of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 flash floods which involved the city of Pozzuoli, along the Campi Flegrei coast, where a catastrophic flood event (13 fatalities) is reported in 1918 in the AVI Project database. Rainfall data were measured at a sampling rate of 10 minutes by a regional Civil Protection rain gauge located in the city of Pozzuoli near the areas struck by the flash flood effects. In order to analyze the extreme features of the rainstorms and compare them, we have considered the 1-hour maximum rainfall amount and the 10-min peak storm intensity value for each event. The first rainstorm occurred on 14 September 2009; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 34.4 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 57.6 mm/h. The second rainstorm occurred on 30 July 2010; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 40.6 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 126 mm/h. The third rainstorm occurred on 06 November 2011; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 44.2 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 67.2 mm/h. The three described rainstorms all triggered erosional processes and shallow landslides in the upper part of the Pozzuoli drainage basin that supplied sheet flows and hyperconcentrated flows downstream, with severe damage to the human structures built near or inside the main drainage channels. In this area, in fact, one of the most serious problems for the Civil Protection authorities is the intense urbanization that dramatically increases not only the volcanic and seismic risks but also the level of geo-hydrological risk. The high degree of damage within the basin was also caused by incautious man-made modification of sectors of the drainage network and the use of culverts and even concrete-walled channel segments that in some cases were used as paved roads for local transportation. In all the three cases no warnings were issued to citizens because of the lack of early-warning systems but, fortunately, no fatalities or injuries were reported after the events. The analysis of these flash flood episodes showed an interesting case of interaction between hydrological processes and the geologic setting of a highly urbanized area such as the Campi Flegrei district, where the occurrence of heavy rain coupled with abundance of loose pyroclastic material on the steep volcanic hillslopes is likely to produce high levels of geo-hydrological hazard and risk.
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Application of spatial Poisson process models to air mass thunderstorm rainfall
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Eagleson, P. S.; Fennessy, N. M.; Wang, Qinliang; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.
1987-01-01
Eight years of summer storm rainfall observations from 93 stations in and around the 154 sq km Walnut Gulch catchment of the Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, in Arizona are processed to yield the total station depths of 428 storms. Statistical analysis of these random fields yields the first two moments, the spatial correlation and variance functions, and the spatial distribution of total rainfall for each storm. The absolute and relative worth of three Poisson models are evaluated by comparing their prediction of the spatial distribution of storm rainfall with observations from the second half of the sample. The effect of interstorm parameter variation is examined.
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The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, F.; Westra, S.
2012-12-01
Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as well as local scale bathymetry. Additionally, significant dependence can be observed over spatial distances of up to several hundred kilometers, implying that meso-scale meteorological forcings may play an important role in driving the dependence. This is also consistent with the result which shows that significant dependence often remaining for lags of up to one or two days between extremal rainfall and storm surge events. The influence of storm burst duration can also be observed, with rainfall extremes lasting more than several hours typically being more closely associated with storm surge compared with sub-hourly rainfall extremes. These results will have profound implications for how flood risk is evaluated along the coastal zone in Australia, with the strength of dependence varying depending on: (1) the dominant meteorological conditions; (2) the local estuary configuration, influencing the strength of the surge; and (3) the catchment attributes, influencing the duration of the storm burst that will deliver the peak flood events. Although a strong random component remains, we show that the probability of an extreme storm surge during an extreme rainfall event (or vice versa) can be up to ten times greater than under the situation under which there is no dependence, suggesting that failure to account for these interactions can result in a substantial underestimation of flood risk.
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Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei
2012-12-30
Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Validation Of TRMM For Hazard Assessment In The Remote Context Of Tropical Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Monsieurs, E.; Kirschbaum, D.; Tan, J.; Jacobs, L.; Kervyn, M.; Demoulin, A.; Dewitte, O.
2017-12-01
Accurate rainfall data is fundamental for understanding and mitigating the disastrous effects of many rainfall-triggered hazards, especially when one considers the challenges arising from climate change and rainfall variability. In tropical Africa in particular, the sparse operational rainfall gauging network hampers the ability to understand these hazards. Satellite rainfall estimates (SRE) can therefore be of great value. Yet, rigorous validation is required to identify the uncertainties when using SRE for hazard applications. We evaluated the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 Research Derived Daily Product from 1998 to 2017, at 0.25° x 0.25° spatial and 24 h temporal resolution. The validation was done over the western branch of the East African Rift, with the perspective of regional landslide hazard assessment in mind. Even though we collected an unprecedented dataset of 47 gauges with a minimum temporal resolution of 24 h, the sparse and heterogeneous temporal coverage in a region with high rainfall variability poses challenges for validation. In addition, the discrepancy between local-scale gauge data and spatially averaged ( 775 km²) TMPA data in the context of local convective storms and orographic rainfall is a crucial source of uncertainty. We adopted a flexible framework for SRE validation that fosters explorative research in a remote context. Results show that TMPA performs reasonably well during the rainy seasons for rainfall intensities <20 mm/day. TMPA systematically underestimates rainfall, but most problematic is the decreasing probability of detection of high intensity rainfalls. We suggest that landslide hazard might be efficiently assessed if we take account of the systematic biases in TMPA data and determine rainfall thresholds modulated by controls on, and uncertainties of, TMPA revealed in this study. Moreover, it is found relevant in mapping regional-scale rainfall-triggered hazards that are in any case poorly covered by the sparse available gauges. We anticipate validation of TMPA's successor (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement; 10 km × 10 km, half-hourly) using the proposed framework, as soon as this product will be available in early 2018 for the 1998-present period.
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Estimation of the fractional coverage of rainfall in climate models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Eltahir, E. A. B.; Bras, R. L.
1993-01-01
The fraction of the grid cell area covered by rainfall, mu, is an essential parameter in descriptions of land surface hydrology in climate models. A simple procedure is presented for estimating this fraction, based on extensive observations of storm areas and rainfall volumes. Storm area and rainfall volume are often linearly related; this relation can be used to compute the storm area from the volume of rainfall simulated by a climate model. A formula is developed for computing mu, which describes the dependence of the fractional coverage of rainfall on the season of the year, the geographical region, rainfall volume, and the spatial and temporal resolution of the model. The new formula is applied in computing mu over the Amazon region. Significant temporal variability in the fractional coverage of rainfall is demonstrated. The implications of this variability for the modeling of land surface hydrology in climate models are discussed.
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Capturing the Initiation and Spatial Variability of Runoff on Soils Affected by Wildfire
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martin, D. A.; Wickert, A. D.; Moody, J. A.
2011-12-01
Rainfall after wildfire often leads to intense runoff and erosion, since fire removes ground cover that impedes overland flow and water is unable to efficiently infiltrate into the fire-affected soils. In order to understand the relation between rainfall, infiltration, and runoff, we modified a camera to be triggered by a rain gage to take time-lapse photographs of the ground surface every 10 seconds until the rain stops. This camera allows us to observe directly the patterns of ground surface ponding, the initiation of overland flow, and erosion/deposition during single rainfall events. The camera was deployed on a hillslope (average slope = 23 degrees) that was severely burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, Colorado. The camera's field of view is approximately 3 m2. We integrate the photographs with rainfall and overland flow measurements to determine thresholds for the initiation of overland flow and erosion. We have recorded the spatial variability of wetted patches of ground and the connection of these patches together to initiate overland flow. To date we have recorded images for rain storms with 30-minute maximum intensities ranging from 5 mm/h (our threshold to trigger continuous photographs) to 32 mm/h. In the near future we will update the camera's control system to 1) include a clock to enable time-lapse photographs at a lower frequency in addition to the event-triggered images, and 2) to add a radio to allow the camera to be triggered remotely. Radio communication will provide a means of starting the camera in response to non-local events, allowing us to capture images or video of flash flood surge fronts and debris flows, and to synchronize the operations of multiple cameras in the field. Schematics and instructions to build this camera station, which can be used to take either photos or video, are open-source licensed and are available online at http://instaar.colorado.edu/~wickert/atvis. It is our hope that this tool can be used by other researchers to better understand processes in burned watersheds and other sensitive areas that are likely to respond rapidly to rainfall.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Han Soo; Yamashita, Takao; Hsu, John R.-C.; Ding, Fei
2013-01-01
In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused massive flooding and devastating mudslides in the southern Taiwan triggered by extremely heavy rainfall (2777 mm in 4 days) which occurred during its passage. It was one of the deadliest typhoons that have ever attacked Taiwan in recent years. In this study, numerical simulations are performed for the storm surge and ocean surface waves, together with dynamic meteorological fields such as wind, pressure and precipitation induced by Typhoon Morakot, using an atmosphere-waves-ocean integrated modelling system. The wave-induced dissipation stress from breaking waves, whitecapping and depth-induced wave breaking, is parameterized and included in the wave-current interaction process, in addition to its influence on the storm surge level in shallow water along the coast of Taiwan. The simulated wind and pressure field captures the characteristics of the observed meteorological field. The spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall within 4 days, from 00:00 UTC 6 August to 00:00 UTC 10 August 2009, shows similar patterns as the observed values. The 4-day accumulated rainfall of 2777 mm at the A-Li Shan mountain weather station for the same period depicted a high correlation with the observed value of 2780 mm/4 days. The effects of wave-induced dissipation stress in the wave-current interaction resulted in increased surge heights on the relatively shallow western coast of Taiwan, where the bottom slope of the bathymetry ranges from mild to moderate. The results also show that wave-breaking has to be considered for accurate storm surge prediction along the east coast of Taiwan over the narrow bank of surf zone with a high horizontal resolution of the model domain.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yan, Eugene; Pierce, Julia; Mahat, Vinod
This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with amore » heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Pan; Ng, Tze Ling
2017-11-01
Accurate rainfall measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions is critical for the modeling and management of urban storm water. In this study, we conduct computer simulation experiments to test the potential of a crowd-sourcing approach, where smartphones, surveillance cameras, and other devices act as precipitation sensors, as an alternative to the traditional approach of using rain gauges to monitor urban rainfall. The crowd-sourcing approach is promising as it has the potential to provide high-density measurements, albeit with relatively large individual errors. We explore the potential of this approach for urban rainfall monitoring and the subsequent implications for storm water modeling through a series of simulation experiments involving synthetically generated crowd-sourced rainfall data and a storm water model. The results show that even under conservative assumptions, crowd-sourced rainfall data lead to more accurate modeling of storm water flows as compared to rain gauge data. We observe the relative superiority of the crowd-sourcing approach to vary depending on crowd participation rate, measurement accuracy, drainage area, choice of performance statistic, and crowd-sourced observation type. A possible reason for our findings is the differences between the error structures of crowd-sourced and rain gauge rainfall fields resulting from the differences between the errors and densities of the raw measurement data underlying the two field types.
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Stalling Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Emanuel, K.
2017-12-01
Hurricane Harvey produced massive amounts of rain over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Average storm total rainfall amounts over a 10,000 square mile (26,000 square km) area exceeded 30 inches (750 mm). An important aspect of the storm that contributed to the large rainfall totals was its unusual motion. The storm stalled shortly after making landfall, then moved back offshore before once again making landfall five days later. This storm motion permitted heavy rainfall to occur in the same general area for an extended period of time. The unusual nature of this event motivates an investigation into the characteristics and potential climate change influences on stalled tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using the HURDAT 2 storm track database for 1866-2016 and downscaled tropical cyclones driven by simulations of present and future climate. The motion of cyclones is quantified as the size of a circle circumscribing all storm locations during a given length of time. For a three-day period, Harvey remained inside a circle with a radius of 123 km. This ranks within the top 0.6% of slowest-moving historical storm instances. Among the 2% of slowest-moving storm instances prior to Harvey, only 13 involved storms that stalled near the continental United States coast, where they may have produced substantial rainfall onshore while tapping into marine moisture. Only two such storms stalled in the month of September, in contrast to 20 September stalls out of the 36 storms that stalled over the nearby open Atlantic. Just four of the stalled coastal storms were hurricanes, implying a return frequency for such storms of much less than once per decade. The synoptic setting of these storms is examined for common features, and historical and projected trends in occurrences of stalled storms near the coast and farther offshore are investigated.
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Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel
2017-12-01
The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.
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NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea
2013-06-06
NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea on June 5 at 16:25 UTC (12:25 p.m. EDT) and the MODIS instrument captured this visible image of the storm. Andrea’s clouds had already extended over more than half of Florida. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team --- NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea NASA’s TRMM satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea right after it was named, while NASA’s Terra satellite captured a visible image of the storm’s reach hours beforehand. TRMM measures rainfall from space and saw that rainfall rates in the southern part of the storm was falling at almost 5 inches per hour. NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea on June 5 at 16:25 UTC (12:25 p.m. EDT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument, captured a visible image of the storm. At that time, Andrea’s clouds had already extended over more than half of Florida. At 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 5, System 91L became the first tropical storm of the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. Tropical Storm Andrea was centered near 25.5 North and 86.5 West, about 300 miles (485 km) southwest of Tampa, Fla. At the time Andrea intensified into a tropical storm, its maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph). Full updates can be found at NASA's Hurricane page: www.nasa.gov/hurricane Rob Gutro NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
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NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea
2017-12-08
This NOAA GOES-East satellite animation shows the development of System 91L into Tropical Storm Andrea over the course of 3 days from June 4 to June 6, just after Andrea was officially designated a tropical storm. Credit: NASA's GOES Project --- NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea NASA’s TRMM satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea right after it was named, while NASA’s Terra satellite captured a visible image of the storm’s reach hours beforehand. TRMM measures rainfall from space and saw that rainfall rates in the southern part of the storm was falling at almost 5 inches per hour. NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea on June 5 at 16:25 UTC (12:25 p.m. EDT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument, captured a visible image of the storm. At that time, Andrea’s clouds had already extended over more than half of Florida. At 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 5, System 91L became the first tropical storm of the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. Tropical Storm Andrea was centered near 25.5 North and 86.5 West, about 300 miles (485 km) southwest of Tampa, Fla. At the time Andrea intensified into a tropical storm, its maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph). Full updates can be found at NASA's Hurricane page: www.nasa.gov/hurricane Rob Gutro NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
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Schmidt, Kevin M.; Hanshaw, M.N.; Howle, James F.; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Stock, Jonathan D.; Bawden, Gerald W.
2011-01-01
To investigate rainfall-runoff conditions that generate post-wildfire debris flows, we instrumented and surveyed steep, small watersheds along the tectonically active front of the San Gabriel Mountains, California. Fortuitously, we recorded runoff-generated debris-flows triggered by one spatially restricted convective event with 28 mm of rainfall falling over 62 minutes. Our rain gages, nested hillslope overland-flow sensors and soil-moisture probes, as well as a time series of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) revealed the effects of the storm. Hillslope overland-flow response, along two ~10-m long flow lines perpendicular to and originating from a drainage divide, displayed only a 10 to 20 minute delay from the onset of rainfall with accumulated totals of merely 5-10 mm. Depth-stratified soil-moisture probes displayed a greater time delay, roughly 20- 30 minutes, indicating that initial overland flow was Hortonian. Furthermore, a downstream channel-monitoring array recorded a pronounced discharge peak generated by the passage of a debris flow after 18 minutes of rainfall. At this time, only four of the eleven hillslope overlandflow sensors confirmed the presence of surface-water flow. Repeat TLS and detailed field mapping using GPS document how patterns of rainsplash, overland-flow scour, and rilling contributed to the generation of meter-scale debris flows. In response to a single small storm, the debris flows deposited irregular levees and lobate terminal snouts on hillslopes and caused widespread erosion of the valley axis with ground surface lowering exceeding 1.5 m.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loustau, D.; Berbigier, P.; Granier, A.
1992-10-01
Interception, throughfall and stemflow were determined in an 18-year-old maritime pine stand for a period of 30 months. This involved 71 rainfall events, each corresponding either to a single storm or to several storms. Gash's analytical model of interception was used to estimate the sensitivity of interception to canopy structure and climatic parameters. The seasonal cumulative interception loss corresponded to 12.6-21.0% of the amount of rainfall, whereas throughfall and stemflow accounted for 77-83% and 1-6%, respectively. On a seasonal basis, simulated data fitted the measured data satisfactorily ( r2 = 0.75). The rainfall partitioning between interception, throughfall and stemflow was shown to be sensitive to (1) the rainfall regime, i.e. the relative importance of light storms to total rainfall, (2) the climatic parameters, rainfall rate and average evaporation rate during storms, and (3) the canopy structure parameters of the model. The low interception rate of the canopy was attributed primarily to the low leaf area index of the stand.
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Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.
2009-12-01
Rainfall-induced landslides can be triggered by two main mechanisms: shear failure due to build-up of pore water pressure and erosion by surface water runoff when flow velocity exceeds a critical value. Field measurements indicate that, in the initial phase, the slip surface of a landslide often occurs along the top of a relatively impermeable layer located at some depth within the soil profile, e.g. at the contact with a shallow underlying bedrock or parent rock. The shear strength along this surface and hence the stability of the slope is governed by the pore water pressure. The pore pressure is in turn controlled by water seepage through the slope, either from infiltrated rain, or from groundwater that follows bedrock joints and soil layers with high permeability. When the infiltration rate of the underlying layer is too low for further downward penetration of water or when a wetting front is produced, pore water pressure builds up, reducing the soil shear strength. During high intensity rainfall, surface water runoff will exert shear stresses on the bed material. De-pending on the grain size distribution and specific gravity of the material, erosion might occur when the flow velocity exceeds a critical value. As erosion progresses and sediment concentration increases, the flow regime may become unstable with heavy erosion at high flow velocity locations triggering a debris flow. In many cases, previous landslides along steep gully walls have fed an abundance of loose soil material into the gullies. Landslides along gully walls that obstruct the water transport may also trigger debris flows when the landslide-dam collapses, creating a surge downstream. Both the long-duration (1 or more days) and short-duration precipitation (of the order of 1 hour) are significant in the triggering of shallow landslides, since the critical short-duration rainfall intensity reduces as the antecedent accumulated rainfall increases. Experiences in Norway indicate that the maxi-mum intensity of rain within a short period of time (1-3 hours) during a storm is most critical for triggering of debris flows. Therefore empirical methods developed for prediction of initiation of debris flows include both long-duration and short-duration rain-fall. More recent research has focused on the spatial distribution of unstable areas and on better spatial resolution of the occurrence of landslide-triggering precipitation events. Spatial distribution can be assessed by analyzing the stability conditions for shallow landslides if reasonable estimates of strength parameters are available. In general, two different approaches may be adopted for the assessment of threshold values for rainfall-induced landslides: empirical methods that are based on past observations and statistical analyses, and numerical analyses that are based on geo-mechanical modelling. The former approach together with very short-term weather forecasting (now-casting) are commonly used in the design of early warning systems for debris flows.
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Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip
2018-03-01
This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mascellaro, Neri; Guerriero, Luigi; Revellino, Paola; Grelle, Gerardo; Guadagno, Francesco M.
2017-04-01
As effect of the ongoing climate change, heavy meteorological events are increasing in frequency all over the world. The Campania Region in southern Italy is among the areas mostly affected by severe rainstorms and is periodically hit by their effect like floods and landslides. In October 2015, two intense rainfall events hit the central and southern regions of Italy but the most destructive effects occurred in the Benevento province (Campania region). The first storm, a self-healing V-shaped storm, began around at 7 p.m. of 14th October and stopped around at 3:00 a.m. of 15th October and was originated by the development of a cyclogenesis. The rain gages recorded a maximum cumulative value of 415.6 mm of rain in Paupisi (BN) and a strong increase in temperature; the maxima for the Benevento province was 24°C. The second storm began around at 12 a.m. of 19th October and stopped around at 7 p.m. of 20th October with a maximum cumulative value of 146.8 mm of rain in Colle Sannita(BN). These storms triggered a set of different effects that devastated more than 60 municipalities of the Sannio Province and were responsible for two casualties, €700 million of damage to infrastructures (estimates from Campania region) and about €1 billion damages to agriculture (Italian farmer Confederation). The the Calore river of the Benevento province and some of its tributaries overflowed destroying the surrounding area; major damages were recorded in the industrial area of the Benevento town. In the central and in the eastern sectors of the Benevento Province characterized by the outcropping of flyschoid units, the heavy rain triggered shallow earth flows, debris flows induced by rilling and soil slides. Debris avalanches and runoff-initiated debris flows reshaped the creeks of the Taburno-Camposauro massif and damaged a lot of infrastructure of the surrounding area. Flood events from the Calore river in the Benevento district have significant historical precedents. The most important events recorded in the past are: 1) the flood of the 2nd of October, 1949, that caused 20 fatalities, and 2) the flooding of May 1729. As first step of our study we reconstructed the spatial pattern and the temporal evolution of the storms affecting the Sannio area using the rainfall data recorded by the meteorological stations distributed across the Benevento Province. Subsequently we mapped all the effects to the landscape caused by the storms as: earth flows, soil slides, flooded area, runoff initiated debris flows and debris avalanches, debris flows initiated by rilling and soil erosion (using mainly Google earth images and field survey). We compered the location of these phenomena with the geological and topographic characteristics to understand likely controls in promote the triggering and the development of this unusual combination of different hazardous effects.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.
2017-12-01
Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2007-01-01
Though not the most powerful storm of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season, Tropical Storm Noel was among the most deadly. Only Category 5 Hurricane Felix and its associated flooding had a higher toll. The slow-moving Tropical Storm Noel inundated the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas with heavy rain between October 28 and November 1, 2007. The resulting floods and mudslides left at least 115 dead and thousands homeless throughout the Caribbean, reported the Associated Press on November 2, 2007. This image shows the distribution of the rainfall that made Noel a deadly storm. The image shows rainfall totals as measured by the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from October 26 through November 1, 2007. The analysis is based on measurements taken by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The heaviest rainfall fell in the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas, northeast of Noel's center. Areas of dark red show that rainfall totals over the south-central Dominican Republic and parts of the Bahamas were over 551 millimeters (21 inches). Much of eastern Hispaniola, including both the Dominican Republic and Haiti received at least 200 mm (about 8 inches) of rain, shown in yellow. Rainfall totals over Haiti and Cuba were less, with a range of at least 50 mm (2 inches) to over 200 mm (8 inches).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle
2017-04-01
In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a-priori information (topography, lithology, …) and rainfall metrics available from meteorological forecast may allow to better anticipate and mitigates landsliding associated with extreme rainfall events.
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Rainfall influence on styles of mass movement
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, S. P.; Rengers, F. K.; Foster, M. A.; Winchell, E. W.; Anderson, R. S.
2017-12-01
Precipitation characteristics influence whether hillslope materials move in rain-splash driven hops, shallow landslides, or in deep-seated failures. While one might expect a particular style of slope failure to dominate in a region, we report on multiple distinctive mass movements on a single ridge, each associated with different weather events. This suggests that understanding climate regulation of denudation rates and hillslope morphology requires quantifying both triggering hydro-climates, and the corresponding hillslope response to the full spectrum of events. We explore these connections on Dakota Ridge, a hogback at the eastern margin of the Colorado Front Range. The dipslope of Dakota Ridge has generated slumps, debris flows, and an earthflow over the last 4 years; Pleistocene-era deep-seated landslides are also evident. We document mass-movements along a 1 km long segment of Dakota Ridge. Weeklong precipitation and flooding in September 2013 produced slumps, each of which displaced 50-100 m3 of mobile regolith several meters downslope, and some of which triggered shallow, relatively non-erosive debris flows. By contrast, a similar precipitation total over the month of May 2015 mobilized an earthflow. The 10 m wide earthflow displaced mobile regolith downslope as much as 10 m over its 150 m length. These recent landslides are dwarfed by a 400 m wide deep-seated landslide that controls slope morphology from ridge crest to toe. Exposure ages (10Be) suggest a late-Pleistocene age for this feature. Although the September 2013 storm produced record-setting rainfall totals at daily, monthly and annual timescales (e.g., annual exceedance probability of <1/1000 for daily totals), the failures from that event, while numerous, were the smallest of all the landslides in the study area. These observations raise the question: what hydro-climatic conditions produce deep-seated, bedrock involved slope failures? Recent storms suggest that within mobile regolith, individual failure size increases with duration of the triggering weather event. Ridge-scale bedrock-involved failures presumably reflect a more persistently wet climate.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salimun, Ester; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew
2010-06-01
A comparative study has been conducted to investigate the skill of four convection parameterization schemes, namely the Anthes-Kuo (AK), the Betts-Miller (BM), the Kain-Fritsch (KF), and the Grell (GR) schemes in the numerical simulation of an extreme precipitation episode over eastern Peninsular Malaysia using the Pennsylvania State University—National Center for Atmospheric Research Center (PSU-NCAR) Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The event is a commonly occurring westward propagating tropical depression weather system during a boreal winter resulting from an interaction between a cold surge and the quasi-stationary Borneo vortex. The model setup and other physical parameterizations are identical in all experiments and hence any difference in the simulation performance could be associated with the cumulus parameterization scheme used. From the predicted rainfall and structure of the storm, it is clear that the BM scheme has an edge over the other schemes. The rainfall intensity and spatial distribution were reasonably well simulated compared to observations. The BM scheme was also better in resolving the horizontal and vertical structures of the storm. Most of the rainfall simulated by the BM simulation was of the convective type. The failure of other schemes (AK, GR and KF) in simulating the event may be attributed to the trigger function, closure assumption, and precipitation scheme. On the other hand, the appropriateness of the BM scheme for this episode may not be generalized for other episodes or convective environments.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Atlas, David; Black, Peter G.
1994-01-01
SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) echoes from the sea have previously been shown to be the result of rain and winds produced by convective stroms; rain damps the surface waves and causes ech-free holes, while the diverging winds associated with downdraft generate waves and associated echoes surrounding the holes. Gust fronts are also evident. Such a snapshot from 8 July 1978 has been examined in conjunction with ground-based radar. This leads to the conclusion that the SAR storm footprints resulted from storm processes that occurred up to an hour or more prior to the snapshot. A sequence of events is discerned from the SAR imagery in which new cell growth is triggered in between the converging outflows of two preexisting cells. In turn, the new cell generates a mini-squall line along its expanding gust front. While such phenomena are well known over land, the spaceborne SAR now allows important inferences to be made about the nature and frequency of convective storms over the oceans. The storm effects on the sea have significant implications for spaceborne wind scatterometry and rainfall measurements. Some of the findings herein remain speculative because of the great distance to the Miami weather radar-the only source of corroborative data.
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Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms
Gungle, B.; Krider, E.P.
2006-01-01
Relationships between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and surface rainfall have been examined in nine isolated, warm-season thunderstorms on the east coast of central Florida. CG flashes and the associated rain volumes were measured as a function of time in storm-centered reference frames that followed each storm over a network of rain gauges. Values of the storm-average rain volume per CG flash ranged from 0.70 ?? 104 to 6.4 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, with a mean (and standard deviation) of 2.6 ?? 104 ?? 2.1 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. Values of the rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.11 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash with a mean of 2.1 ?? 104 ?? 2.0 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. The lag-time between the peak CG flash rate and the peak rainfall rate (using 5 min bins), and the results of a lag correlation analysis, show that surface rainfall tends to follow the lightning (positive lag) by up to 20 min in six storms. In one storm the rainfall preceded the lightning by 5 min, and two storms had nonsignificant lags. Values of the lagged rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.43 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, and the mean was 1.9 ?? 104 ?? 1.7 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. For the five storms that produced 12 or more flashes and had significant lags, a plot of the optimum lag time versus the total number of CG flashes shows a linear trend (R2 = 0.56). The number of storms is limited, but the lag results do indicate that large storms tend to have longer lags. A linear fit to the lagged rain volume vs. the number of concurrent CG flashes has a slope of 1.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash (R2 = 0.83). We conclude that warm-season Florida thunderstorms produce a roughly constant rain volume per CG flash and that CG lightning can be used to estimate the location and intensity of convective rainfall in that weather regime. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
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Reclaimed mineland curve number response to temporal distribution of rainfall
Warner, R.C.; Agouridis, C.T.; Vingralek, P.T.; Fogle, A.W.
2010-01-01
The curve number (CN) method is a common technique to estimate runoff volume, and it is widely used in coal mining operations such as those in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. However, very little CN data are available for watersheds disturbed by surface mining and then reclaimed using traditional techniques. Furthermore, as the CN method does not readily account for variations in infiltration rates due to varying rainfall distributions, the selection of a single CN value to encompass all temporal rainfall distributions could lead engineers to substantially under- or over-size water detention structures used in mining operations or other land uses such as development. Using rainfall and runoff data from a surface coal mine located in the Cumberland Plateau of eastern Kentucky, CNs were computed for conventionally reclaimed lands. The effects of temporal rainfall distributions on CNs was also examined by classifying storms as intense, steady, multi-interval intense, or multi-interval steady. Results indicate that CNs for such reclaimed lands ranged from 62 to 94 with a mean value of 85. Temporal rainfall distributions were also shown to significantly affect CN values with intense storms having significantly higher CNs than multi-interval storms. These results indicate that a period of recovery is present between rainfall bursts of a multi-interval storm that allows depressional storage and infiltration rates to rebound. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun
2016-04-01
The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.
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Ellen, Stephen D.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.
1988-01-01
A catastrophic rainstorm in central California on January 3-5,1982, dropped as much as half the mean annual precipitation within a period of about 32 hours, triggering landslides and floods throughout 10 counties in the vicinity of the San Francisco Bay. More than 18,000 of the slides induced by the storm transformed into debris flows that swept down hillslopes or drainages with little warning. Debris flows damaged at least 100 homes, killed 14 residents, and carried a 15th victim into a creek. Shortly after rainfall ceased, more than 459,000 m3 of earth and rock slid from a mountainside above the community of Love Creek in Santa Cruz County, burying 10 people in their homes. Throughout the bay region, thousands of people vacated homes in hazardous areas, entire communities were isolated as roads were blocked, public water systems were destroyed, and power and telephone services were disrupted. Altogether, the storm damaged 6,300 homes, 1,500 businesses, and tens of kilometers of roads, bridges, and communication lines. Preliminary rough estimates of total storm damage, compiled for emergency purposes within 2 weeks of the storm, exceeded $280 million. Carefully documented direct costs from landslides exceeded $66 million; total costs from landslides certainly were greater and probably constituted a much larger proportion of the total storm damage than suggested by these disparate figures. Landslides accounted for 25 of the 33 deaths attributed to the storm.
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Time-dependent landslide probability mapping
Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,
1993-01-01
Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McGuire, Luke A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.
2017-07-01
Postwildfire debris flows are frequently triggered by runoff following high-intensity rainfall, but the physical mechanisms by which water-dominated flows transition to debris flows are poorly understood relative to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides. In this study, we combined a numerical model with high-resolution hydrologic and geomorphic data sets to test two different hypotheses for debris flow initiation during a rainfall event that produced numerous debris flows within a recently burned drainage basin. Based on simulations, large volumes of sediment eroded from the hillslopes were redeposited within the channel network throughout the storm, leading to the initiation of numerous debris flows as a result of the mass failure of sediment dams that built up within the channel. More generally, results provide a quantitative framework for assessing the potential of runoff-generated debris flows based on sediment supply and hydrologic conditions.
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McGuire, Luke; Rengers, Francis K.; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.
2017-01-01
Postwildfire debris flows are frequently triggered by runoff following high-intensity rainfall, but the physical mechanisms by which water-dominated flows transition to debris flows are poorly understood relative to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides. In this study, we combined a numerical model with high-resolution hydrologic and geomorphic data sets to test two different hypotheses for debris flow initiation during a rainfall event that produced numerous debris flows within a recently burned drainage basin. Based on simulations, large volumes of sediment eroded from the hillslopes were redeposited within the channel network throughout the storm, leading to the initiation of numerous debris flows as a result of the mass failure of sediment dams that built up within the channel. More generally, results provide a quantitative framework for assessing the potential of runoff-generated debris flows based on sediment supply and hydrologic conditions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valenzuela, Pablo; Iglesias, Miguel; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio
2017-04-01
Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the NW of Spain, where those phenomena cause every year large economic loses and sometimes personal injuries or fatalities. Most of landslides take place during intense rainfall events, which point out precipitation as the main triggering factor. Regional climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Rainfall distribution throughout the year allows the definition of a humid period between October and May, characterized by the succession of frontal systems, and a considerable dry period between June and September, when heavy short storm episodes are usual. BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) gathers more than 500 landslide records located with high temporal reliability for eight hydrological years between October 2008 and September 2016. Eight periods with a high concentration of landslides and significant precipitation records have been selected for the study within this time span. Meteorological conditions which took place during each period have been characterized by using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the EEUU (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis 1) through the free software Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS). Seven parameters have been used to characterize each synoptic situation: (i) 500 hPa temperature, (ii) 500 hPa geopotential height, (iii) 850 hPa temperature, (iv) 850 hPa geopotential height, (v) 925hPa wind, (vi) specific humidity, and (vii) sea level pressure. The final goal is to establish a conceptual model of the most frequent synoptic meteorological patterns which generate rainfall-triggered landslide events in Asturias during the humid and dry periods.
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The Identification of Hail Storms in the Early Stage Using Time Series Analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Ping; Shi, Jinyu; Hou, Jinyi; Hu, Yan
2018-01-01
This study investigates the characteristics of hail storms and cumulonimbus storms in China from 2005 to 2016. Ten features are proposed to identify storm cells that can produce hail, especially in the early stage of hail formation. These features describe hail storms based on three factors: the height and thickness of the cell core, the radar echo intensity, and the overhang structure and the horizontal reflectivity gradient. The 10 features are transformed into two-dimensional comprehensive features by principal component analysis (PCA). The two comprehensive features are named the volume measurement comprehensive feature (VMCF) and the height-gradient comprehensive feature (HGCF). Through an analysis of 49 hail cases and 35 heavy rainfall cases with S-band radar data, the time series exhibit a distinct increase in VMCF or HGCF values in the early stage of a hail storm. However, the VMCF and HGCF values of heavy rainfall events remain relatively stable throughout the storm life cycle. An experiment involving real-storm events, including 31 hail cases and 33 heavy rainfall cases, indicated that the probability of detection of hail storms was 93.33% and the false alarm ratio was 15.66%. In the cases that could be successfully identified as hail storms, 80.00% were detected within 18 min of reaching a hail storm reflectivity of 40 dBZ.
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More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall
Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik
2016-01-01
The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms. PMID:27834368
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More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall
Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.; ...
2016-11-11
Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less
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More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.
Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rosenfeld, Daniel; Short, David A.; Atlas, David
1990-01-01
A theory is developed which establishes the basis for the use of rainfall areas within present thresholds as a measure of either the instantaneous areawide rain rate of convective storms or the total volume of rain from an individual storm over its lifetime. The method is based upon the existence of a well-behaved pdf of rain rate either from the many storms at one instant or from a single storm during its life. The generality of the instantaneous areawide method was examined by applying it to quantitative radar data sets from the GARP Tropical Atlantic Experiment for South Africa, Texas, and Darwin (Australia). It is shown that the pdf's developed for each of these areas are consistent with the theory.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hettiarachchi, Suresh; Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish
2018-03-01
The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded in the latter part of the storm duration, while extremely intense short-duration storms will cause flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban flooding and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for the design and planning of future storm water systems.
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Intra-storm temporal patterns of rainfall in China using Huff curves
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The intra-storm temporal distributions of precipitation are important to infiltration, runoff and erosion processes and models. A convenient and established method for characterizing precipitation hyetographs is with the use of Huff curves. In this study, 11,801 erosive rainfall events with one-mi...
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Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Montesarchio, V.; Ridolfi, E.; Russo, F.; Napolitano, F.
2011-07-01
Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olivera, F.; Choi, J.; Socolofsky, S.
2006-12-01
Watershed responses to storm events are strongly affected by the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall; that is, the spatial distribution of the precipitation intensity and its evolution over time. Although real storms are moving entities with non-uniform intensities in both space and time, hydrological applications often synthesize these attributes by assuming storms that are uniformly distributed and have variable intensity according to a pre-defined hyetograph shape. As one considers watersheds of greater size, the non-uniformity of rainfall becomes more important, because a storm may not cover the watershed's entire area and may not stay in the watershed for its full duration. In order to incorporate parameters such as storm area, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution in the definition of synthetic storms, it is necessary to determine these storm characteristics from spatially distributed precipitation data. To date, most algorithms for identifying and tracking storms have been applied to short time-step radar reflectivity data (i.e., 15 minutes or less), where storm features are captured in an effectively synoptic manner. For the entire United States, however, the most reliable distributed precipitation data are the one-hour accumulated 4 km × 4 km gridded NEXRAD data of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) (NWS 2005. The one-hour aggregation level of the data, though, makes it more difficult to identify and track storms than when using sequences of synoptic radar reflectivity data, because storms can traverse over a number of NEXRAD cells and change size and shape appreciably between consecutive data maps. In this paper, we present a methodology to overcome the identification and tracking difficulties and to extract the characteristics of moving storms (e.g. size, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution) from one-hour accumulated distributed rainfall data. The algorithm uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) for storm identification and image processing for storm tracking. The method has been successfully applied to Brazos County in Texas using the 2003 Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) NEXRAD rainfall data.
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Application of Radar-Rainfall Estimates to Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Carolinas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
England, J. F.; Caldwell, R. J.; Sankovich, V.
2011-12-01
Extreme storm rainfall data are essential in the assessment of potential impacts on design precipitation amounts, which are used in flood design criteria for dams and nuclear power plants. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) from National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Report 51 (HMR51) is currently used for design rainfall estimates in the eastern U.S. The extreme storm database associated with the report has not been updated since the early 1970s. In the past several decades, several extreme precipitation events have occurred that have the potential to alter the PMP values, particularly across the Southeast United States (e.g., Hurricane Floyd 1999). Unfortunately, these and other large precipitation-producing storms have not been analyzed with the detail required for application in design studies. This study focuses on warm-season tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Carolinas, as these systems are the critical maximum rainfall mechanisms in the region. The goal is to discern if recent tropical events may have reached or exceeded current PMP values. We have analyzed 10 storms using modern datasets and methodologies that provide enhanced spatial and temporal resolution relative to point measurements used in past studies. Specifically, hourly multisensor precipitation reanalysis (MPR) data are used to estimate storm total precipitation accumulations at various durations throughout each storm event. The accumulated grids serve as input to depth-area-duration calculations. Individual storms are then maximized using back-trajectories to determine source regions for moisture. The development of open source software has made this process time and resource efficient. Based on the current methodology, two of the ten storms analyzed have the potential to challenge HMR51 PMP values. Maximized depth-area curves for Hurricane Floyd indicate exceedance at 24- and 72-hour durations for large area sizes, while Hurricane Fran (1996) appears to exceed PMP at large area sizes for short-duration, 6-hour storms. Utilizing new methods and data, however, requires careful consideration of the potential limitations and caveats associated with the analysis and further evaluation of the newer storms within the context of historical storms from HMR51. Here, we provide a brief background on extreme rainfall in the Carolinas, along with an overview of the methods employed for converting MPR to depth-area relationships. Discussion of the issues and limitations, evaluation of the various techniques, and comparison to HMR51 storms and PMP values are also presented.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Furl, Chad; Sharif, Hatim; ElHassan, Almoutaz; Mazari, Newfel; Burtch, Daniel; Mullendore, Gretchen
2015-04-01
Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hermine occurred 7-8 September 2010 across central Texas resulting in several fatalities and extensive property damage. The largest rainfall totals were received near Austin, TX and immediately north where twenty four hour accumulations reached a 500 year recurrence interval. Among the most heavily impacted drainage basins was the Bull Creek watershed (58 km2) in Austin, TX where peak flows exceeded 500 m3 s-1. The large flows were produced from a narrow band of intense storm cells training over the small watershed for approximately six hours. Meteorological analysis along with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate a quasi-stationary synoptic feature slowing the storm, orographic enhancement from the Balcones Escarpment, and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico were important features producing the locally heavy rainfall. The effect from the Balcones Escarpment was explicitly tested by conducting simulations with and without the escarpment terrain. High resolution, gauge adjusted radar collected as part of a flash flood warning system was used to describe spatiotemporal rainfall patterns and force the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The radar dataset indicated the basin received nearly 300 mm of precipitation with maximum sustained intensities of 50 mm hr-1. Roughly 60 percent of storm totals fell during two periods lasting a combined five hours. Stream flow showed a highly non-linear response to two periods of intense rainfall. GSSHA simulations indicate this can be partially explained by the spatial organization of rainfall coupled with landscape retention.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.
2017-12-01
Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.
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Fontaine, Richard A.; Hill, Barry R.
2002-01-01
A combination of several meteorologic and topographic factors produced extreme rainfall over the eastern part of the island of Hawaii on November 1-2, 2000. Storm rainfall was concentrated in two distinct areas, the Waiakea and Kapapala areas, where maximum rainfall totals of 32.47 and 38.97 inches were recorded. Resultant flooding caused damages in excess of 70 million dollars, among the highest totals associated with flooding in the State's history. Storm rainfall had recurrence intervals that ranged from 10 years or less for maximum 1-hour totals to 100 years or more for maximum 24-hour totals As part of this study, peak flow and/or erosion data were collected at 41 sites. Analyses of these data indicated that peak discharges of record occurred at 6 of 12 sites where historic data were available. Peak flows with estimated recurrence intervals from 50 to over 100 years were recorded at 4 of 11 sites. Peak flows were poorly correlated with total storm rainfall. Critical rainfall durations associated with peak flows ranged from 1 to 12 hours and were about 3 hours at most sites. Rainfall-runoff computations and field observations indicated that infiltration-excess overland flow alone was not sufficient to have caused the observed flood peaks and therefore saturation-excess overland flow and subsurface flow probably contributed to peak flows at most sites Most hillslope erosion associated with the storm took place along or near the Kaoiki Pali in the Kapapala area. Hillslope erosion was predominately caused by overland flow.
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Flood Frequency Analyses Using a Modified Stochastic Storm Transposition Method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fang, N. Z.; Kiani, M.
2015-12-01
Research shows that areas with similar topography and climatic environment have comparable precipitation occurrences. Reproduction and realization of historical rainfall events provide foundations for frequency analysis and the advancement of meteorological studies. Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) is a method for such a purpose and enables us to perform hydrologic frequency analyses by transposing observed historical storm events to the sites of interest. However, many previous studies in SST reveal drawbacks from simplified Probability Density Functions (PDFs) without considering restrictions for transposing rainfalls. The goal of this study is to stochastically examine the impacts of extreme events on all locations in a homogeneity zone. Since storms with the same probability of occurrence on homogenous areas do not have the identical hydrologic impacts, the authors utilize detailed precipitation parameters including the probability of occurrence of certain depth and the number of occurrence of extreme events, which are both incorporated into a joint probability function. The new approach can reduce the bias from uniformly transposing storms which erroneously increases the probability of occurrence of storms in areas with higher rainfall depths. This procedure is iterated to simulate storm events for one thousand years as the basis for updating frequency analysis curves such as IDF and FFA. The study area is the Upper Trinity River watershed including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex with a total area of 6,500 mi2. It is the first time that SST method is examined in such a wide scale with 20 years of radar rainfall data.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lambs, Luc
2014-05-01
Aim The tracking of the rainfall from Tropical Storm Raphael of mid October 2012 was used to better understand how the eco-hydrology and the water cycle function in wet areas, such as mangrove growing in salty ponds on a number of tropical islands. Location Guadeloupe and Saint Martin Islands in the Leeward Islands archipelago, Lesser Antilles. Methods Compared to normal tropical rainfall, tropical storms display distinct depleted heavy stable water isotopes which can be used as isotopic spikes to understand these special rainfall inflows. Rainfall, groundwater, river and pond water were sampled before, during and after the storm. Results In Guadeloupe where the tropical storm started, the rainfall isotopic signal reached values of d18O= -9 to -8 o on October 12-14th 2012, whereas the normal range is d18O= -4 to -2 o as measured from 2009 to 2012. It was possible to detect such a depleted signal in the groundwater and in the mangrove forest during the days after the storm event. Main conclusions The use of such natural isotopic spikes provides an opportunity to obtain a dynamic and time reference on a large scale for the study of the hydro-ecosystems and the effects on the impacted tropical islands. A few days after the cyclone, the isotopic spikes were found in river, groundwater and mangrove water pools with values up to d18O= -8.6 o . For the water basins on the windward side, the downhill salty pond water was almost completely renewed. By contrast, only 20 to 50 % of the water in the ponds located on the leeward side was renewed. No specific elevation in the d-excess values was noted, certainly due to the relatively long distance from the eye of the storm (180 to 300 km), which meant that there was no spray water evaporative process.
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The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James
2018-01-01
The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.
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Enhanced object-based tracking algorithm for convective rain storms and cells
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Muñoz, Carlos; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick
2018-03-01
This paper proposes a new object-based storm tracking algorithm, based upon TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting). TITAN is a widely-used convective storm tracking algorithm but has limitations in handling small-scale yet high-intensity storm entities due to its single-threshold identification approach. It also has difficulties to effectively track fast-moving storms because of the employed matching approach that largely relies on the overlapping areas between successive storm entities. To address these deficiencies, a number of modifications are proposed and tested in this paper. These include a two-stage multi-threshold storm identification, a new formulation for characterizing storm's physical features, and an enhanced matching technique in synergy with an optical-flow storm field tracker, as well as, according to these modifications, a more complex merging and splitting scheme. High-resolution (5-min and 529-m) radar reflectivity data for 18 storm events over Belgium are used to calibrate and evaluate the algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with that of the original TITAN. The results suggest that the proposed algorithm can better isolate and match convective rainfall entities, as well as to provide more reliable and detailed motion estimates. Furthermore, the improvement is found to be more significant for higher rainfall intensities. The new algorithm has the potential to serve as a basis for further applications, such as storm nowcasting and long-term stochastic spatial and temporal rainfall generation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Llanes, F.; dela Resma, M.; Ferrer, P.; Realino, V.; Aquino, D. T.; Eco, R. C.; Lagmay, A.
2013-12-01
From November 14 to December 3, 2004, Luzon Island was ravaged by 4 successive typhoons: Typhoon Mufia, Tropical Storm Merbok, Tropical Depression Winnie, and Super Typhoon Nanmadol. Tropical Depression Winnie was the most destructive of the four when it triggered landslides on November 29 that devastated the municipalities of Infanta, General Nakar, and Real in Quezon Province, southeast Luzon. Winnie formed east of Central Luzon on November 27 before it moved west-northwestward over southeastern Luzon on November 29. A total of 1,068 lives were lost and more than USD 170 million worth of damages to crops and infrastructure were incurred from the landslides triggered by Typhoon Winnie on November 29 and the flooding caused by the 4 typhoons. FLO-2D, a flood routing software for generating flood and debris flow hazard maps, was utilized to simulate the debris flows that could potentially affect the study area. Based from the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis, the cumulative rainfall from typhoon Winnie on November 29 which was approximately 342 mm over a 9-hour period was classified within a 100-year return period. The Infanta station of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) was no longer able to measure the amount of rainfall after this period because the rain gauge in that station was washed away by floods. Rainfall data with a 100-year return period was simulated over the watersheds delineated from a SAR-derived digital elevation model. The resulting debris flow hazard map was compared with results from field investigation and previous studies made on the landslide event. The simulation identified 22 barangays (villages) with a total of 45,155 people at risk of turbulent flow and flooding.
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Study of flash floods over some parts of Brazil using precipitation index
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Souza, D.; de Souza, R. L. M.; Araujo, R.
2016-12-01
In Brazil, the main phenomena related to natural disasters are derived from the Earth's external dynamics such as floods and flash floods, landslides and storms, where the flash flood phenomenon causes the second highest number of victims, totaling more than 32% of deaths. Floods and flash floods are natural events often triggered by storms or long period of rains, usually associated with rising volume of rainfall on the watershed, leading the river to exceed its maximum. Whereas the occurrence of natural disasters in Brazil is increasing in recent years, the use of more accurate tools to aid in the monitoring of extreme hydrological events it becomes necessary, aiming to decrease the number of human and material losses. In this context, this paper aims to implement an early warning and monitoring system related to extreme precipitation values and hydrological processes. So, initially was studied flood events in the states of São Paulo and Paraná, aimed de determination of the characteristics of rainfall and atmosphere. Later it was used an indicator of precipitation based on the climatology, which indicates warning points on the drainage network related to extreme precipitation, which are obtained by remote sensing sources, for example, radar and satellite, and numerical weather prediction data of short and very short term. The results indicated that most of the flood events over the study area was related to rainfall of deep convection. The use of precipitation indicators also helped the monitoring and the early warning, showing this to be an excellent tool for applications related to flash floods.
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Hydrologic Controls on Shallow Landslide Location, Size, and Shape
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bellugi, D.; Milledge, D.; Perron, T.; McKean, J. A.; Dietrich, W.; Rulli, M.
2012-12-01
Shallow landslides, typically involving just the soil mantle, are principally controlled by topography, soil and root strengths, and soil thickness, and are typically triggered by storm-induced increases in pore water pressure. The response of a landscape to landslide-triggering storms will thus depend on factors such as rainfall totals, storm intensity and duration, and antecedent moisture conditions. The two dominant mechanisms that generate high pore water pressures at a point are topographically-steered lateral subsurface flow (over timescales of days to weeks), and rapid vertical infiltration (over timescales of minutes to hours). We aim to understand the impact of different storm characteristics and hydrologic regimes on shallow landslide location, size, and shape. We have developed a regional-scale model, which applies a low-parameter grid-based multi-dimensional slope stability model within a novel search algorithm, to generate discrete landslide predictions. This model shows that the spatial organization of parameters such as root strength and pore water pressure has a strong control on shallow landslide location, size, and shape. We apply this model to a field site near Coos Bay, OR, where a ten-year landslide inventory has been mapped onto high-resolution topographic data. Our model predicts landslide size generally increases with increasing rainfall intensity, except when root strength is extremely high and pore pressures are topographically steered. The distribution of topographic index values (the ratios of contributing area to slope) of predicted landslides is a clear signature of the pore water pressure generation mechanism: as laterally dominated flow increases, landslides develop in locations with lower slopes and higher contributing areas; in contrast, in the case of vertically-dominated pore pressure rise, landslides are consistently found in locations with higher slopes and lower contributing areas. While in both cases landslides are found in the hollows, where the soils are sufficiently deep to overcome the effects of root strength, in the laterally-dominated case they are predicted to occur further down the hollows (which matches field observations). The size distribution of landslides is better predicted in our model when vertical infiltration dominates, but the observed distribution of topographic index values follows that predicted when lateral flow dominates. This suggests that both mechanisms must be taken into account in order to capture both location and size of shallow landslides (consistent with field observations). These results suggest that this modeling approach could allow us to use observed landslide locations and geometries to infer the dominant hydrologic triggering mechanisms. Furthermore, as the spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation forecasting improves, this model will enable us to more accurately predict both location and size of shallow landslides.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Haneberg, W.C.
1991-11-01
Previous workers have correlated slope failures during rainstorms with rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and seasonal antecedent rainfall. This note shows how such relationships can be interpreted using a periodic steady-state solution to the well-known linear pressure diffusion equation. Normalization of the governing equation yields a characteristic response time that is a function of soil thickness, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and pre-storm effective porosity, and which is analogous to the travel time of a piston wetting front. The effects of storm frequency and magnitude are also successfully quantified using dimensionless attenuation factors and lag times.
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Parameter Estimation for a Model of Space-Time Rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.
1985-08-01
In this paper, parameter estimation procedures, based on data from a network of rainfall gages, are developed for a class of space-time rainfall models. The models, which are designed to represent the spatial distribution of daily rainfall, have three components, one that governs the temporal occurrence of storms, a second that distributes rain cells spatially for a given storm, and a third that determines the rainfall pattern within a rain cell. Maximum likelihood and method of moments procedures are developed. We illustrate that limitations on model structure are imposed by restricting data sources to rain gage networks. The estimation procedures are applied to a 240-mi2 (621 km2) catchment in the Potomac River basin.
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On storm movement and its applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Niemczynowicz, Janusz
Rainfall-runoff models applicable for design and analysis of sewage systems in urban areas are further developed in order to represent better different physical processes going on on an urban catchment. However, one important part of the modelling procedure, the generation of the rainfall input is still a weak point. The main problem is lack of adequate rainfall data which represent temporal and spatial variations of the natural rainfall process. Storm movement is a natural phenomenon which influences urban runoff. However, the rainfall movement and its influence on runoff generation process is not represented in presently available urban runoff simulation models. Physical description of the rainfall movement and its parameters is given based on detailed measurements performed on twelve gauges in Lund, Sweden. The paper discusses the significance of the rainfall movement on the runoff generation process and gives suggestions how the rainfall movement parameters may be used in runoff modelling.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.
2017-12-01
Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is rerun using identical model configurations. Response of extreme rainfall as well as changes in thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties will be presented and analyzed. Contrasting responses across the three storm events to climate change will shed light on critical environmental factors for TC-related extreme rainfall over eastern US.
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Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.
This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.
2004-01-01
During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity, areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%, and remaining 97.6%. The set of 'weakest / smallest' features comprises 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate 0.7 fl/min. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl/min; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85-GHz) and 69 K (37- GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335,000 sq km and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10(exp 12) kg of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations, seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land / Ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and Ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms, and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.
2005-01-01
During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity. areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%. and remaining 97.6%. The set of weakest/smallest features composes 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate of 0.7 flashes (fl) per minute. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl per minute; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85 GHz) and 69 K (37 GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335 000 square kilometers and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10 kg per hour of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global Tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations. seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land-ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.
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Fuzzy neural network for flow estimation in sewer systems during wet weather.
Shen, Jun; Shen, Wei; Chang, Jian; Gong, Ning
2006-02-01
Estimation of the water flow from rainfall intensity during storm events is important in hydrology, sewer system control, and environmental protection. The runoff-producing behavior of a sewer system changes from one storm event to another because rainfall loss depends not only on rainfall intensities, but also on the state of the soil and vegetation, the general condition of the climate, and so on. As such, it would be difficult to obtain a precise flowrate estimation without sufficient a priori knowledge of these factors. To establish a model for flow estimation, one can also use statistical methods, such as the neural network STORMNET, software developed at Lyonnaise des Eaux, France, analyzing the relation between rainfall intensity and flowrate data of the known storm events registered in the past for a given sewer system. In this study, the authors propose a fuzzy neural network to estimate the flowrate from rainfall intensity. The fuzzy neural network combines four STORMNETs and fuzzy deduction to better estimate the flowrates. This study's system for flow estimation can be calibrated automatically by using known storm events; no data regarding the physical characteristics of the drainage basins are required. Compared with the neural network STORMNET, this method reduces the mean square error of the flow estimates by approximately 20%. Experimental results are reported herein.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.
2017-12-01
A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher peak discharge.
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The role of stochastic storms on hillslope runoff generation and connectivity in a dryland basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michaelides, K.; Singer, M. B.; Mudd, S. M.
2016-12-01
Despite low annual rainfall, dryland basins can generate significant surface runoff during certain rainstorms, which can cause flash flooding and high rates of erosion. However, it remains challenging to anticipate the nature and frequency of runoff generation in hydrological systems which are driven by spatially and temporally stochastic rainstorms. In particular, the stochasticity of rainfall presents challenges to simulating the hydrological response of dryland basins and understanding flow connectivity from hillslopes to the channel. Here we simulate hillslope runoff generation using rainfall characteristics produced by a simple stochastic rainfall generator, which is based on a rich rainfall dataset from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona, USA. We assess hillslope runoff generation using the hydrological model, COUP2D, driven by a subset of characteristic output from multiple ensembles of decadal monsoonal rainfall from the stochastic rainfall generator. The rainfall generator operates across WGEW by simulating storms with areas smaller than the basin and enables explicit characterization of rainfall characteristics at any location. We combine the characteristics of rainfall intensity and duration with data on rainstorm area and location to model the surface runoff properties (depth, velocity, duration, distance downslope) on a range of hillslopes within the basin derived from LiDAR analysis. We also analyze connectivity of flow from hillslopes to the channel for various combinations of hillslopes and storms. This approach provides a framework for understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff generation and connectivity that is faithful to the hydrological characteristics of dryland environments.
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Testing Taylor’s hypothesis in Amazonian rainfall fields during the WETAMC/LBA experiment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Poveda, Germán; Zuluaga, Manuel D.
2005-11-01
Taylor's hypothesis (TH) for rainfall fields states that the spatial correlation of rainfall intensity at two points at the same instant of time can be equated with the temporal correlation at two instants of time at some fixed location. The validity of TH is tested in a set of 12 storms developed in Rondonia, southwestern Amazonia, Brazil, during the January-February 1999 Wet Season Atmospheric Meso-scale Campaign. The time Eulerian and Lagrangian Autocorrelation Functions (ACF) are estimated, as well as the time-averaged space ACF, using radar rainfall rates of storms spanning between 3.2 and 23 h, measured at 7-10-min time resolution, over a circle of 100 km radius, at 2 km spatial resolution. TH does not hold in 9 out of the 12 studied storms, due to their erratic trajectories and very low values of zonal wind velocity at 700 hPa, independently from underlying atmospheric stability conditions. TH was shown to hold for 3 storms, up to a cutoff time scale of 10-15 min, which is closely related to observed features of the life cycle of convective cells in the region. Such cutoff time scale in Amazonian storms is much shorter than the 40 min identified in mid-latitude convective storms, due to much higher values of CAPE and smaller values of storm speed in Amazonian storms as compared to mid-latitude ones, which in turn contribute to a faster destruction of the rainfall field isotropy. Storms satisfying TH undergo smooth linear trajectories over space, and exhibit the highest negative values of maximum, mean and minimum zonal wind velocity at 700 hPa, within narrow ranges of atmospheric stability conditions. Non-dimensional parameters involving CAPE (maximum, mean and minimum) and CINE (mean) are identified during the storms life cycle, for which TH holds: CAPE mean/CINE mean = [30-35], CAPE max/CINE mean = [32-40], and CAPE min/CINE mean = [22-28]. These findings are independent upon the timing of storms within the diurnal cycle. Also, the estimated Eulerian time ACF's decay faster than the time-averaged space and the Lagrangian time ACF's, irrespectively of TH validity. The Eulerian ACF's exhibit shorter e-folding times, reflecting smaller correlations over short time scales, but also shorter scale of fluctuation, reflecting less persistence in time than over space. No significant associations (linear, exponential or power law) were found between estimated e-folding times and scale of fluctuation, with all estimates of CAPE and CINE. Secondary correlation maxima appear between 50 and 70 min in the Lagrangian time ACF's for storms satisfying TH. No differences were found in the behavior of each of the three ACF's for storms developed during either the Easterly or Westerly zonal wind regimes which characterize the development of meso-scale convective systems over the region. These results have important implications for modelling and downscaling rainfall fields over tropical land areas.
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Messinger, Terence
2003-01-01
During storms when rainfall intensity exceeded about 1 inch per hour, peak unit runoff from the Unnamed Tributary (surface-mined and filled) Watershed exceeded peak unit runoff from the Spring Branch (unmined) Watershed in the Ballard Fork Watershed in southern West Virginia. During most storms, those with intensity less than about 1 inch per hour, peak unit (area-normalized) flows were greater from the Spring Branch Watershed than the Unnamed Tributary Watershed. One storm that produced less than an inch of rain before flow from the previous storm had receded caused peak unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed to exceed peak unit flow from the Spring Branch Watershed. Peak unit flow was usually similar in Spring Branch and Ballard Fork. Peak unit flows are expected to decrease with increasing watershed size in homogeneous watersheds; drainage area and proportion of the three watersheds covered by valley fills are 0.19 square mile (mi?) and 44 percent for the Unnamed Tributary Watershed, 0.53 mi? and 0 percent for the Spring Branch Watershed, and 2.12 mi? and 12 percent for the Ballard Fork Watershed. Following all storms with sufficient rainfall intensity, about 0.25 inches per hour, the storm hydrograph from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed showed a double peak, as a sharp initial rise was followed by a decrease in flow and then a delayed secondary peak of water that had apparently flowed through the valley fill. Hortonian (excess overland) flow may be important in the Unnamed Tributary Watershed during intense storms, and may cause the initial peak on the rising arm of storm hydrographs; the water composing the initial peaks may be conveyed by drainage structures on the mine. Ballard Fork and Spring Branch had hydrographs with single peaks, typical of elsewhere in West Virginia. During all storms with 1-hour rainfall greater than 0.75 inches or 24-hour rainfall greater than 1.75 inches during which all stream gages recorded a complete record, the Unnamed Tributary yielded the most total unit flow. In three selected major storms, total unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary during recessions exceeded storm flow, and its total unit flow was greatest among the streams during all three recessions. Runoff patterns from the mined watershed are influenced by the compaction of soils on the mine, the apparent low maximum rate of infiltration into the valley fill compared to that in the unmined, forested watershed, storage of water in the valley fill, and the absence of interception from trees and leaf litter. No storms during this study produced 1-hour or 24-hour rainfall in excess of the 5-year return period, and streamflow during this study never exceeded a magnitude equivalent to the 1.5-year return period; relative peak unit flow among the three streams in this study could be different in larger storms. Rainfall-runoff relations on altered landscapes are site-specific, and aspects of mining and reclamation practice that affect storm response may vary among mines.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hanshaw, M. N.; Schmidt, K. M.; Jorgensen, D. P.; Stock, J. D.
2007-12-01
Constraining the distribution of rainfall is essential to evaluating the post-fire mass-wasting response of steep soil-mantled landscapes. As part of a pilot early-warning project for flash floods and debris flows, NOAA deployed a portable truck-mounted Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar (SMART-R) to the 2006 Day fire in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California. In conjunction with a dense array of ground- based instruments, including 8 tipping-bucket rain gages located within an area of 170 km2, this C-band mobile Doppler radar provided 200-m grid cell estimates of precipitation data at fine temporal and spatial scales in burned steeplands at risk from hazardous flash floods and debris flows. To assess the utility of using this data in process models for flood and debris flow initiation, we converted grids of radar reflectivity to hourly time-steps of precipitation using an empirical relationship for convective storms, sampling the radar data at the locations of each rain gage as determined by GPS. The SMART-R was located 14 km from the farthest rain gage, but <10 km away from our intensive research area, where 5 gages are located within <1-2 km of each other. Analyses of the nine storms imaged by radar throughout the 2006/2007 winter produced similar cumulative rainfall totals between the gages and their SMART-R grid location over the entire season which correlate well on the high side, with gages recording the most precipitation agreeing to within 11% of the SMART-R. In contrast, on the low rainfall side, totals between the two recording systems are more variable, with a 62% variance between the minimums. In addition, at the scale of individual storms, a correlation between ground-based rainfall measurements and radar-based rainfall estimates is less evident, with storm totals between the gages and the SMART-R varying between 7 and 88%, a possible result of these being relatively small, fast-moving storms in an unusually dry winter. The SMART-R also recorded higher seasonal cumulative rainfall than the terrestrial gages, perhaps indicating that not all precipitation reached the ground. For one storm in particular, time-lapse photographs of the ground document snow. This could explain, in part, the discrepancy between storm-specific totals when the rain gages recorded significantly lower totals than the SMART-R. For example, during the storm where snow was observed, the SMART-R recorded a maximum of 66% higher rainfall than the maximum recorded by the gages. Unexpectedly, the highest elevation gage, located in a pre-fire coniferous vegetation community, consistently recorded the lowest precipitation, whereas gages in the lower elevation pre- fire chaparral community recorded the highest totals. The spatial locations of the maximum rainfall inferred by the SMART-R and the terrestrial gages are also offset by 1.6 km, with terrestrial values shifted easterly. The observation that the SMART-R images high rainfall intensities recorded by rain gages suggests that this technology has the ability to quantitatively estimate the spatial distribution over larger areas at a high resolution. Discrepancies on the storm scale, however, need to be investigated further, but we are optimistic that such high resolution data from the SMART-R and the terrestrial gages may lead to the effective application of a prototype debris-flow warning system where such processes put lives at risk.
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Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall
Keefer, D.K.; Wilson, R.C.; Mark, R.K.; Brabb, E.E.; Brown, W. M.; Ellen, S.D.; Harp, E.L.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Alger, C.S.; Zatkin, R.S.
1987-01-01
A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leuenberger, D.; Rossa, A.
2007-12-01
Next-generation, operational, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models require economical assimilation schemes for radar data. In the present study we evaluate and characterise the latent heat nudging (LHN) rainfall assimilation scheme within a meso-γ scale NWP model in the framework of identical twin simulations of an idealised supercell storm. Consideration is given to the model’s dynamical response to the forcing as well as to the sensitivity of the LHN scheme to uncertainty in the observations and the environment. The results indicate that the LHN scheme is well able to capture the dynamical structure and the right rainfall amount of the storm in a perfect environment. This holds true even in degraded environments but a number of important issues arise. In particular, changes in the low-level humidity field are found to affect mainly the precipitation amplitude during the assimilation with a fast adaptation of the storm to the system dynamics determined by the environment during the free forecast. A constant bias in the environmental wind field, on the other hand, has the potential to render a successful assimilation with the LHN scheme difficult, as the velocity of the forcing is not consistent with the system propagation speed determined by the wind. If the rainfall forcing moves too fast, the system propagation is supported and the assimilated storm and forecasts initialised therefrom develop properly. A too slow forcing, on the other hand, can decelerate the system and eventually disturb the system dynamics by decoupling the low-level moisture inflow from the main updrafts during the assimilation. This distortion is sustained in the free forecast. It has further been found that a sufficient temporal resolution of the rainfall input is crucial for the successful assimilation of a fast moving, coherent convective storm and that the LHN scheme, when applied to a convective storm, appears to necessitate a careful tuning.
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Coe, J.A.; Glancy, P.A.; Whitney, J.W.
1997-01-01
On July 21 or 22, 1984, debris flows triggered by rainfall occurred on the southern hillslope of Jake Ridge, about 6 km east of the crest of Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Rain gages near Jake Ridge recorded 65 mm and 69 mm on July 21, and 20 mm and 17 mm on July 22. Rates of rainfall intensity ranged up to 73 mm/h on the twenty-first, and 15 mm/h on the twenty-second. Digital elevation models with 2.0 m grid-node spacing, measured from pre-storm and post-storm aerial stereo-photographs, were used to map hillslope erosion and the downslope distribution of debris. Volumetric calculations indicate that about 7040 m3 of debris was redistributed on the 49,132 m2 hillslope study area during the two-day storm period. About 4580 m3 (65%) of the eroded sediment was deposited within the study area and the remaining 35% was deposited outside the study area in a short tributary to Fortymile Wash and in the wash itself. The maximum and mean depths of erosion in the study area were about 1.8 m and 5 cm, respectively. The mean depths of erosion on the upper and middle hillslope were 27 cm and 4 cm, respectively. The mean depth of deposition on the lower hillslope was 16 cm. Analysis of the values of cumulative precipitation in the context of the precipitation-frequency atlas of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that precipitation from the main storm on July 21 was more than double that expected, on average, once during a 100-year period. The relations of precipitation intensity/duration, developed from data recorded at a nearby precipitation gage, indicate a storm interval of 500 years or greater. The amount of erosion caused by such a storm is primarily dependent on three variables: storm intensity, development of the drainage network on the hillslope, and the amount of available colluvium. Additionally, the erosive ability of successive storms of equal intensity will decrease because such storms would tend to progressively isolate and reduce the amount of colluvium available. The preservation of Pleistocene deposits on hillslopes of Yucca Mountain, in general, indicates that erosional events that strip 5% of the available hillslope colluvium must be quite rare. We conclude that the recurrence interval of an erosional event comparable to the July, 1984 event is probably much longer than 500 years.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Velasquez, N.; Ochoa, A.; Castillo, S.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.
2017-12-01
The skill of river discharge simulation using hydrological models strongly depends on the quality and spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation during storm events. All precipitation measurement strategies have their own strengths and weaknesses that translate into discharge simulation uncertainties. Distributed hydrological models are based on evolving rainfall fields in the same time scale as the hydrological simulation. In general, rainfall measurements from a dense and well maintained rain gauge network provide a very good estimation of the total volume for each rainfall event, however, the spatial structure relies on interpolation strategies introducing considerable uncertainty in the simulation process. On the other hand, rainfall retrievals from radar reflectivity achieve a better spatial structure representation but with higher uncertainty in the surface precipitation intensity and volume depending on the vertical rainfall characteristics and radar scan strategy. To assess the impact of both rainfall measurement methodologies on hydrological simulations, and in particular the effects of the rainfall spatio-temporal variability, a numerical modeling experiment is proposed including the use of a novel QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) method based on disdrometer data in order to estimate surface rainfall from radar reflectivity. The experiment is based on the simulation of 84 storms, the hydrological simulations are carried out using radar QPE and two different interpolation methods (IDW and TIN), and the assessment of simulated peak flow. Results show significant rainfall differences between radar QPE and the interpolated fields, evidencing a poor representation of storms in the interpolated fields, which tend to miss the precise location of the intense precipitation cores, and to artificially generate rainfall in some areas of the catchment. Regarding streamflow modelling, the potential improvement achieved by using radar QPE depends on the density of the rain gauge network and its distribution relative to the precipitation events. The results for the 84 storms show a better model skill using radar QPE than the interpolated fields. Results using interpolated fields are highly affected by the dominant rainfall type and the basin scale.
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On the derivation of the areal reduction factor of storms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bacchi, Baldassare; Ranzi, Roberto
A stochastic derivation of the areal reduction factor (ARF) of the storm intensity is presented: it is based on the analysis of the crossing properties of the rainfall process aggregated in space and time. As a working hypothesis, the number of crossings of high rainfall intensity levels is assumed to be Poisson-distributed and a hyperbolic tail of the probability of exceedances of rainfall intensity has been adopted. These hypotheses are supported by the analysis of radar maps during an intense storm event which occurred in Northern Italy. The reduction factor derived from this analysis shows a power-law decay with respect to the area of integration and the duration of the storm. The areal reduction results as a function of the storm duration and of its frequency. A weak, but significant decrease of the areal reduction factor with respect to the return period is shown by the functions derived, and this result is consistent with that of some recent studies on this topic. The results derived, although preliminary, may find useful applications for the definition of the design storm in urban catchments of a size greater than some square kilometres and with duration of some hours.
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Impact of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Veeramony, J.
2016-12-01
Assessing the impact of climate change on surge and inundation due to tropical cyclones is important for coastal adaptation as well as mitigation efforts. Changes in global climate increase vulnerability of coastal environments to the threat posed by severe storms in a number of ways. Both the intensity of future storms as well as the return periods of more severe storms are expected to increase signficantly. Increasing mean sea levels lead to more areas being inundated due to storm surge and bring the threat of inundation further inland. Rainfall associated with severe storms are also expected to increase substantially, which will add to the intensity of inland flooding and coastal inundation. In this study, we will examine the effects of sea level rise and increasing rainfall intensity using Hurricane Ike as the baseline. The Delft3D modeling system will be set up in nested mode, with the outermost nest covering the Gulf of Mexico. The system will be run in a coupled mode, modeling both waves and the hydrodynamics. The baseline simulation will use the atmospheric forcing which consists of the NOAA H*Wind (Powell et all 1998) for the core hurricane characteristics blended with reanalyzed background winds to create a smooth wind field. The rainfall estimates are obtained from TRMM. From this baseline, a set of simulations will be performed to show the impact of sea level rise and increased rainfall activity on flooding and inundation along theTexas-Lousiana coast.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Canon, C. C.; Tischbein, B.; Bogardi, J.
2017-12-01
Flood maps generally display the area that a river might overflow after a rainfall event takes place, under different scenarios of climate, land use/land cover, and/or failure of dams and dikes. However, rainfall is not limited to feed runoff and enlarge the river: it also causes minor disasters outside the map's highlighted area. The city of Cali in Colombia illustrates very well this situation: its flat topography and its major critical infrastructure near the river make it flood-risk prone; a heavy rainfall event would potentially deplete drinking water, electrical power and drainage capacity, and trigger outbreaks of water-borne diseases in the whole city, not only in the flooded area. Unfortunately, the government's disaster prevention strategies focus on the floodplain and usually overlook the aftermath of these minor disasters for being milder and scattered. Predicted losses in flood maps are potentially big, while those from minor disasters over the city are small but real, and citizens, utility companies and urban maintenance funds must constantly take them over. Mitigation and prevention of such minor disasters can save money for the development of the city in other aspects. This paper characterizes hundreds of rainfall events selected from 10-min step time series from 2006 to 2017, and finds their correlation with reported rainfall-related disasters throughout Cali, identified by date and neighborhood. Results show which rainfall parameters are most likely to indicate the occurrence of such disasters and their approximate location in the urban area of Cali. These results, when coupled with real-time observations of rainfall data and simulations of drainage network response, may help citizens and emergency bodies prioritize zones to assist during heavy storms. In the long term, stakeholders may also implement low impact development solutions in these zones to reduce flood risks.
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Schuster, Paul F.; Reddy, Michael M.; Sherwood, S.I.
1994-01-01
This study is part of a long-term research program designed to identify and quantify acid rain damage to carbonate stone. Acidic deposition accelerates the dissolution of carbonate-stone monuments and building materials. Sequential sampling of runoff from carbonate-stone (marble) and glass (reference) microcatchments in the Adirondack Mountains in New York State provided a detailed record of the episodic fluctuations in rain rate and runoff chemistry during individual summer storms. Rain rate and chemical concentrations from carbonate-stone and glass runoff fluctuated three to tenfold during storms. Net calcium-ion concentrations from the carbonatestone runoff, a measure of stone dissolution, typically fluctuated twofold during these storms. High net sulfate and net calcium concentrations in the first effective runoff at the start of a storm indicated that atmospheric pollutants deposited on the stone surface during dry periods formed calcium sulfate minerals, an important process in carbonate stone dissolution. Dissolution of the carbonate stone generally increased up to twofold during coincident episodes of low rain rate (less than 5 millimeters per hour) and decreased rainfall (glass runoff) pH (less than 4.0); episodes of high rain rate (cloudbursts) were coincident with a rapid increase in rainfall pH and also a rapid decrease in the dissolution of carbonate-stone. During a storm, it seems the most important factors causing increased dissolution of carbonate stone are coincident periods of low rain rate and decreased rainfall pH. Dissolution of the carbonate stone decreased slightly as the rain rate exceeded about 5 millimeters per hour, probably in response to rapidly increasing rainfall pH during episodes of high rain rate and shorter contact time between the runoff and the stone surface. High runoff rates resulting from cloudbursts remove calcium sulfate minerals formed during dry periods prior to storms and also remove dissolution products formed in large measure by chemical weathering as a result of episodes of low rain rate and decreased rainfall pH during a storm.
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Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei
2018-05-01
The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.
2007-12-01
SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.
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The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution
Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.
1989-01-01
Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two scales of temporal variation: one related to Quaternary climate changes and a more-recent, higher-frequency variation due to rare events during the Holocene. In much of the central Appalachians, landforms related to Quaternary climate changes persist as the most prominent features, despite the modifying effects of late-Holocene catastrophic events. ?? 1989.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.
2015-12-01
The observed and anticipated increasing trends in extreme storm magnitude and frequency, as well as the associated flooding risk in the Pacific Northwest highlighted the need for revising and updating the local intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are commonly used for designing critical water infrastructure. In Washington State, much of the drainage system installed in the last several decades uses IDF curves that are outdated by as much as half a century, making the system inadequate and vulnerable for flooding as seen more frequently in recent years. In this study, we have developed new and forward looking rainfall and runoff IDF curves for each county in Washington State using recently observed and projected precipitation data. Regional frequency analysis coupled with Bayesian uncertainty quantification and model averaging methods were used to developed and update the rainfall IDF curves, which were then used in watershed and snow models to develop the runoff IDF curves that explicitly account for effects of snow and drainage characteristic into the IDF curves and related designs. The resulted rainfall and runoff IDF curves provide more reliable, forward looking, and spatially resolved characteristics of storm events that can assist local decision makers and engineers to thoroughly review and/or update the current design standards for urban and rural storm water management infrastructure in order to reduce the potential ramifications of increasing severe storms and resulting floods on existing and planned storm drainage and flood management systems in the state.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Yoo, Jung-Moon; Hahnenberger, Maura
2007-01-01
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data show a significant midweek increase in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., due to afternoon intensification. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in rain area and in the heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region and in rain-gauge data are consistent with the satellite data. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0 C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms--most dramatically evidenced by the shift in the midweek distribution of afternoon-storm heights--and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This "weekend effect" may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.
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Hydrologic data from urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area, Florida
Lopez, Miguel A.; Michaelis, D.M.
1979-01-01
Hydrologic data are being collected in 10 urbanized watersheds located in the Tampa Bay area, Florida. The gaged watersheds have impervious areas that range from 19 percent for a residential watershed in north Tampa to nearly 100 percent for a downtown Tampa watershed. Land-use types, including roads, residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, recreational , and open space, have been determined for each watershed. Rainfall and storm runoff data collected since 1971 for one site and since 1975 for six other sites through September 1976, have been processed. These data are recorded at 5-minute intervals and are stored in the U. S. Geological Survey WATSTORE unit values file. Daily rainfall at 12 sites and daily pan evaporation at one site have been stored in the WATSTORE daily values file. Chemical and biological analyses of storm runoff for six sites, base flow for seven sites, and analyses of bottom material for seven sites are also stored in the WATSTORE water-quality files. Rainfall and storm runoff for selected storms, daily rainfall, and daily pan-evaporation data are summarized in this report. Water-quality analyses of all water-quality samples also are listed. (Woodard-USGS).
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A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards
Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
2018-01-01
RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544
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A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards.
Wright, Daniel B; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D
2017-04-01
RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.
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A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
2017-01-01
RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, Rainy Day can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, Rainy Day can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. Rainy Day can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Ammo Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Ranch Fire in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
IntroductionThe objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Harris Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Rice Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Poomacha Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Witch Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Slide and Grass Valley Fires in San Bernardino County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 3.50 inches (88.90 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Buckweed Fire in Los Angeles County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Canyon Fire in Los Angeles County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.
2007-01-01
INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Santiago Fire in Orange County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.
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Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.
2015-04-01
Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall fallen 6, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. The antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides. The rainfall thresholds obtained for the Sicily were compared with the regional curves proposed by various authors confirming a good agreement with these.
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Can earthquake fissures predispose hillslopes to landslides? - Evidence from Central and East Asia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sidle, Roy C.; Gomi, Takashi; Rajapbaev, Muslim; Chyngozhoev, Nurstan
2017-04-01
Factors affecting earthquake-initiated landslides include earthquake magnitude, focal depth, and seismic wave propagation and attenuation. In contrast to rainfall-initiated landslides, earthquake-induced landslides often occur on convex slopes and near ridgelines. Here we present evidence from Fergana Basin, Kyrgyzstan and Kumamoto, Japan on how fissures developed during earthquakes may promote subsequent initiation of rainfall-triggered landslides. More than 1800 recent major landslides in hilly terrain and soft sediments of the Fergana Basin have been largely attributed to accumulation of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. While no large earthquakes have occurred in the Fergana Basin, smaller earthquakes have generated fissures near ridgelines and on convex slopes. The connection of fissures, developed years or decades before slope failure, with preferential transport of rainwater and runoff into the soil has not been previously investigated. Fissures have been observed to expand with time, particularly during subsequent minor earthquakes, further promoting preferential infiltration. Because the soil mantle does not have large contrasts in permeability that would define a slip plane for landslides, it appears that the position and depth of these fissures may control the location and depth of failures. Zones in the soil where surficial inputs of water are preferentially transported, augment natural subsurface accumulation of antecedent rainfall. Many landslides in the eastern Fergana Basin occur after several months of accumulated precipitation and groundwater has been observed emerging on critical hillside locations (near ridgelines and on convex slopes) prior to slope failure. During the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (M 7.3), many landslides were triggered in forest and grassland hillslopes near Mount Aso. All of these earthquakes were shallow (focal depths about 10 km), causing high shaking intensity and ground rupturing. Because soils were relatively dry during these earthquakes, occurrence of debris flows was limited. Instead, most landslides travelled limited distances and consisted of ruptured soil blocks. Large, parallel fissures developed along ridgelines and convex slopes, providing opportunities for preferential flow to initiate mass wasting during later heavy rainfalls. The progressive deterioration of ridgelines could change future catchment drainage patterns. Additionally, sediment accumulated in headwater channels from the initial earthquake-triggered landslides may mobilize as devastating debris flows after additional sediment loading during a large storm. As such, cascading effects of prior earthquakes on later mass wasting appear evident in both regions.
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Landslide monitoring in the Atlantic Highlands area, New Jersey
Reilly, Pamela A.; Ashland, Francis X.; Fiore, Alex R.
2017-08-25
Shallow and deep-seated landslides have occurred episodically on the steep coastal bluffs of the Atlantic Highlands area (Boroughs of Atlantic Highlands and Highlands) in New Jersey. The oldest documented deep-seated landslide occurred in April 1782 and significantly changed the morphology of the bluff. However, recent landslides have been mostly shallow in nature and have occurred during large storms with exceptionally heavy rainfall. These shallow landslides have resulted in considerable damage to residential property and local infrastructure and threatened human safety.The recent shallow landslides in the area (locations modified from New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection) consist primarily of slumps and flows of earth and debris within areas of historical landslides or on slopes modified by human activities. Such landslides are typically triggered by increases in shallow soil moisture and pore-water pressure caused by sustained and intense rainfall associated with spring nor’easters and late summer–fall tropical cyclones. However, the critical relation between rainfall, soil-moisture conditions, and landslide movement has not been fully defined. The U.S. Geological Survey is currently monitoring hillslopes within the Atlantic Highlands area to better understand the hydrologic and meteorological conditions associated with shallow landslide initiation.
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An entropy decision approach in flash flood warning: rainfall thresholds definition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Montesarchio, V.; Napolitano, F.; Ridolfi, E.
2009-09-01
Flash floods events are floods characterised by very rapid response of the basins to the storms, and often they involve loss of life and damage to common and private properties. Due to the specific space-time scale of this kind of flood, generally only a short lead time is available for triggering civil protection measures. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section. The overcoming of these values could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk, so it is possible to compare directly the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running on line real time forecasting systems. This study is focused on the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated minimising an utility function based on the informative entropy concept. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warning, false alarms and missed alarms.
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SYNOPTIC RAINFALL DATA ANALYSIS PROGRAM (SYNOP). RELEASE NO. 1
An integral part of the assessment of storm loads on water quality is the statistical evaluation of rainfall records. Hourly rainfall records of many years duration are cumbersome and difficult to analyze. The purpose of this rainfall data analysis program is to provide the user ...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bliss Singer, Michael; Michaelides, Katerina
2017-10-01
In drylands, convective rainstorms typically control runoff, streamflow, water supply and flood risk to human populations, and ecological water availability at multiple spatial scales. Since drainage basin water balance is sensitive to climate, it is important to improve characterization of convective rainstorms in a manner that enables statistical assessment of rainfall at high spatial and temporal resolution, and the prediction of plausible manifestations of climate change. Here we present a simple rainstorm generator, STORM, for convective storm simulation. It was created using data from a rain gauge network in one dryland drainage basin, but is applicable anywhere. We employ STORM to assess watershed rainfall under climate change simulations that reflect differences in wetness/storminess, and thus provide insight into observed or projected regional hydrologic trends. Our analysis documents historical, regional climate change manifesting as a multidecadal decline in rainfall intensity, which we suggest has negatively impacted ephemeral runoff in the Lower Colorado River basin, but has not contributed substantially to regional negative streamflow trends.
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Bellomo, R; Gigliotti, P; Treloar, A; Holmes, P; Suphioglu, C; Singh, M B; Knox, B
1992-06-15
To document the clinical impact and identify the meteorological and environmental circumstances surrounding two epidemics of asthma exacerbations associated with thunderstorms in the city of Melbourne and to find a possible aetiology for these events. Collection of meteorological and environmental data from the Victorian Bureau of Meteorology and the Environment Protection Authority; collection of clinical data from metropolitan emergency departments and the Victorian Ambulance Service; and study of a cohort of affected patients with asthma and a control group of asthmatics who were not affected by the storms. Tertiary institution. Twelve storm-affected patients with asthma and 16 asthmatics not affected by the storms. Administration of a questionnaire, medical interview, pulmonary function tests and skin prick tests with common allergens. Both epidemics caused a major increase in the number of hospital attendances and admissions because of asthma exacerbation (five to ten fold rise). These events could not be related to atmospheric pollution or specific meteorological features of the storms. Patients affected by the second storm were significantly more likely to suffer from hay fever (P less than 0.05), rye grass pollen allergy (P less than 0.05) and allergy to rainfall released rye grass starch granules (P less than 0.025). Late spring thunderstorms in the city of Melbourne can trigger epidemics of asthma attacks. The seasonal nature of the phenomenon and the pattern of allergic responses found in affected patients suggest a possible aetiological role for rye grass pollen.
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Characteristics of the overflow pollution of storm drains with inappropriate sewage entry.
Yin, Hailong; Lu, Yi; Xu, Zuxin; Li, Huaizheng; Schwegler, Benedict R
2017-02-01
To probe the overflow pollution of separate storm drains with inappropriate sewage entries, in terms of the relationship between sewage entries and the corresponding dry-weather and wet-weather overflow, the monitoring activities were conducted in a storm drainage system in the Shanghai downtown area (374 ha). In this study site, samples from inappropriately entered dry-weather sewage and the overflow due to storm pumps operation on dry-weather and wet-weather days were collected and then monitored for six water quality constituents. It was found that overflow concentrations of dry-weather period could be higher than those of wet-weather period; under wet-weather period, the overflow concentrations of storm drains were close to or even higher than that of combined sewers. Relatively strong first flush mostly occurred under heavy rain that satisfied critical rainfall amount, maximum rainfall intensity, and maximum pumping discharge, while almost no first flush effect or only weak first flush effect was found for the other rainfall events. Such phenomenon was attributed to lower in-line pipe storage as compared to that of the combined sewers, and serious sediment accumulation within the storm pipes due to sewage entry. For this kind of system, treating a continuous overflow rate is a better strategy than treating the maximum amount of early part of the overflow. Correcting the key inappropriate sewage entries into storm drains should also be focused.
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RainyDay: An Online, Open-Source Tool for Physically-based Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wright, D.; Yu, G.; Holman, K. D.
2017-12-01
Flood frequency analysis in ungaged or changing watersheds typically requires rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves combined with hydrologic models. IDF curves only depict point-scale rainfall depth, while true rainstorms exhibit complex spatial and temporal structures. Floods result from these rainfall structures interacting with watershed features such as land cover, soils, and variable antecedent conditions as well as river channel processes. Thus, IDF curves are traditionally combined with a variety of "design storm" assumptions such as area reduction factors and idealized rainfall space-time distributions to translate rainfall depths into inputs that are suitable for flood hydrologic modeling. The impacts of such assumptions are relatively poorly understood. Meanwhile, modern precipitation estimates from gridded weather radar, grid-interpolated rain gages, satellites, and numerical weather models provide more realistic depictions of rainfall space-time structure. Usage of such datasets for rainfall and flood frequency analysis, however, are hindered by relatively short record lengths. We present RainyDay, an open-source stochastic storm transposition (SST) framework for generating large numbers of realistic rainfall "scenarios." SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by temporal resampling and geospatial transposition of observed storms to extract space-time information from regional gridded rainfall data. Relatively short (10-15 year) records of bias-corrected radar rainfall data are sufficient to estimate rainfall and flood events with much longer recurrence intervals including 100-year and 500-year events. We describe the SST methodology as implemented in RainyDay and compare rainfall IDF results from RainyDay to conventional estimates from NOAA Atlas 14. Then, we demonstrate some of the flood frequency analysis properties that are possible when RainyDay is integrated with a distributed hydrologic model, including robust estimation of flood hazards in a changing watershed. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is supporting the development of a web-based variant of RainyDay, a "beta" version of which is available at http://her.cee.wisc.edu/projects/rainyday/.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wdowinski, S.; Peng, Z.; Ferrier, K.; Lin, C. H.; Hsu, Y. J.; Shyu, J. B. H.
2017-12-01
Earthquakes, landslides, and tropical cyclones are extreme hazards that pose significant threats to human life and property. Some of the couplings between these hazards are well known. For example, sudden, widespread landsliding can be triggered by large earthquakes and by extreme rainfall events like tropical cyclones. Recent studies have also shown that earthquakes can be triggered by erosional unloading over 100-year timescales. In a NASA supported project, titled "Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquake", we study triggering relations between these hazard types. The project focuses on such triggering relations in Taiwan, which is subjected to very wet tropical storms, landslides, and earthquakes. One example for such triggering relations is the 2009 Morakot typhoon, which was the wettest recorded typhoon in Taiwan (2850 mm of rain in 100 hours). The typhoon caused widespread flooding and triggered more than 20,000 landslides, including the devastating Hsiaolin landslide. Six months later, the same area was hit by the 2010 M=6.4 Jiashian earthquake near Kaohsiung city, which added to the infrastructure damage induced by the typhoon and the landslides. Preliminary analysis of temporal relations between main-shock earthquakes and the six wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years reveals similar temporal relations between M≥5 events and wet typhoons. Future work in the project will include remote sensing analysis of landsliding, seismic and geodetic monitoring of landslides, detection of microseismicity and tremor activities, and mechanical modeling of crustal stress changes due to surface unloading.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stanley, T.; Kirschbaum, D.; Sobieszczyk, S.; Jasinski, M. F.; Borak, J.; Yatheendradas, S.
2017-12-01
Landslides occur every year in the U.S. Pacific Northwest due to extreme rainfall, snow cover, and rugged topography. Data for 15,000 landslide events in Washington and Oregon were assembled from State Surveys, Departments of Transportation, a Global Landslide Catalog compiled by NASA, and other sources. This new inventory was evaluated against rainfall data from the National Climate Assessment (NCA) Land Data Assimilation System to characterize the regional rainfall conditions that trigger landslides. Analysis of these data sets indicates clear differences in triggering thresholds between extreme weather systems such as a Pineapple Express and the more typical peak seasonal rainfall between November and February. The study also leverages over 30 years of precipitation and land surface information to inform variability of landslide triggering over multiple decades and landslide trends within the region.
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Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms
Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il
2011-01-01
There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165
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Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.
Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il
2011-07-01
There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.
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Influences of Hydrological Regime on Runoff Quality and Pollutant Loadings in Tropical Urban Areas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chow, M.; Yusop, Z.
2011-12-01
Experience in many developed countries suggests that non point source (NPS) pollution is still the main contributor to pollutant loadings into water bodies in urban areas. However, the mechanism of NPS pollutant transport and the influences of hydrologic regime on the pollutant loading are still unclear. Understanding these interactions will be useful for improving design criteria and strategies for controlling NPS pollution in urban areas. This issue is also extremely relevant in tropical environment because its rainfall and the runoff generation processes are so different from the temperate regions where most of the studies on NPS pollutant have been carried out. In this regard, an intensive study to investigate the extent of this pollution was carried out in Skudai, Johor, Malaysia. Three small catchments, each represents commercial, residential and industrial land use were selected. Stormwater samples and flow rate data were collected at these catchments over 52 storm events from year 2008 to 2009. Samples were analyzed for ten water quality constituents including total suspended solids, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, oil and grease, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, soluble phosphorus, total phosphorus and zinc. Quality of stormwater runoff is estimated using Event Mean Concentration (EMC) value. The storm characteristics analyzed included rainfall depth, rainfall duration, mean intensity, max 5 minutes intensity, antecedent dry day, runoff volume and peak flow. Correlation coefficients were determined between storm parameters and EMCs for the residential, commercial and industrial catchments. Except for the antecedent storm mean intensity and antecedent dry days, the other rainfall and runoff variables were negatively correlated with EMCs of most pollutants. This study reinforced the earlier findings on the importance of antecedent dry days for causing greater EMC values with exceptions for oil and grease, nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus and zinc. There is no positive correlation between rainfall intensity and EMC of constituents in all the studied catchments. In contrast, the pollutant loadings are influenced primarily by the rainfall and runoff characteristics. Rainfall depth, mean intensity, max 5 minute intensity, runoff volume and peak flow were positively correlated with the loadings of most of the constituents. Antecedent storm mean intensity and antecedent dry days seemed to be less important for estimating the pollutant loadings. Such study should be further conducted for acquiring a long term monitoring data related to storm runoff quality during rainfall, in order to have a better understanding on NPS pollution in urban areas.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ogden, Fred L.; Raj Pradhan, Nawa; Downer, Charles W.; Zahner, Jon A.
2011-12-01
The literature contains contradictory conclusions regarding the relative effects of urbanization on peak flood flows due to increases in impervious area, drainage density and width function, and the addition of subsurface storm drains. We used data from an urbanized catchment, the 14.3 km2 Dead Run watershed near Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and the physics-based gridded surface/subsurface hydrologic analysis (GSSHA) model to examine the relative effect of each of these factors on flood peaks, runoff volumes, and runoff production efficiencies. GSSHA was used because the model explicitly includes the spatial variability of land-surface and hydrodynamic parameters, including subsurface storm drains. Results indicate that increases in drainage density, particularly increases in density from low values, produce significant increases in the flood peaks. For a fixed land-use and rainfall input, the flood magnitude approaches an upper limit regardless of the increase in the channel drainage density. Changes in imperviousness can have a significant effect on flood peaks for both moderately extreme and extreme storms. For an extreme rainfall event with a recurrence interval in excess of 100 years, imperviousness is relatively unimportant in terms of runoff efficiency and volume, but can affect the peak flow depending on rainfall rate. Changes to the width function affect flood peaks much more than runoff efficiency, primarily in the case of lower density drainage networks with less impermeable area. Storm drains increase flood peaks, but are overwhelmed during extreme rainfall events when they have a negligible effect. Runoff in urbanized watersheds with considerable impervious area shows a marked sensitivity to rainfall rate. This sensitivity explains some of the contradictory findings in the literature.
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Flood of May 26-27, 1984 in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Bergman, DeRoy L.; Tortorelli, Robert L.
1988-01-01
The greatest flood disaster in the history of Tulsa, Oklahoma occurred during 8 hours from 2030 hours May 26 to 0430 hours May 27, 1984, as a result of intense rainfall centered over the metropolitan area. Storms of the magnitude that caused this flood are not uncommon to the southern great plains. Such storms are seldom documented in large urban areas. Total rainfall depth and rainfall distribution in the Tulsa metropolitan area during the May 26-27 storm were recorded by 16 recording rain gages. This report presents location of recording rain gages with corresponding rainfall histograms and mass curves, lines of equal rainfall depth (map A), and flood magnitudes and inundated areas of selected streams within the city (map B). The limits of the study areas (fig. 1) are the corporate boundaries of Tulsa, an area of about 185 square miles. Streams draining the city are: Dirty Butter, Coal, and Mingo Creeks which drain northward into Bird Creek along the northern boundary of the city; and Cherry, Crow, Harlow, Joe Haikey, Fry, Vensel, Fred, and Mooser Creeks which flow into the Arkansas River along the southern part of the city. Flooding along Haikey, Fry, Fred, Vensel, and Mooser Creeks was not documented for this report. The Arkansas River is regulated by Keystone Dam upstream from Tulsa (fig. 1). The Arkansas River remained below flood stage during the storm. Flooded areas in Tulsa (map B) were delineated on the topographic maps using flood profiles based on surveys of high-water marks identified immediately after the flood. The flood boundaries show the limits of stream flooding. Additional areas flooded because of overfilled storm drains or by sheet runoff are not shown in this report. Data presented in this report, including rainfall duration and frequency, and flood discharges and elevations, provide city officials and consultants a technical basis for making flood-plain management decisions.
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Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Peters-Lidard, Christa
2012-01-01
It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides; however, there remain large uncertainties in characterizing the distribution of these hazards and meteorological triggers at the global scale. Researchers have evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local and regional scale primarily using in situ data, yet few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This research uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurence of precipitation and rainfall-triggered landslides globally. The GLC, available from 2007 to the present, contains information on reported rainfall-triggered landslide events around the world using online media reports, disaster databases, etc. When evaluating this database, we observed that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This research also considers the sources for this extreme rainfall, citing teleconnections from ENSO as likely contributors to regional precipitation variability. This work demonstrates the potential for using satellite-based precipitation estimates to identify potentially active landslide areas at the global scale in order to improve landslide cataloging and quantify landslide triggering at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.
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Impact of TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall Assimilation on Global Analysis and QPF
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur; Zhang, Sara; Reale, Oreste
2002-01-01
Evaluation of QPF skills requires quantitatively accurate precipitation analyses. We show that assimilation of surface rain rates derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and many aspects of global analyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with analyses with satellite rainfall data generally yield significantly higher QPF threat scores and better storm track predictions. These results were obtained using a variational procedure that minimizes the difference between the observed and model rain rates by correcting the moist physics tendency of the forecast model over a 6h assimilation window. In two case studies of Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, synoptic analysis shows that this procedure produces initial conditions with better-defined tropical storm features and stronger precipitation intensity associated with the storm.
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Du, Xinzhong; Li, Xuyong; Hao, Shaonan; Wang, Huiliang; Shen, Xiao
2014-01-01
Nutrient discharge during storm events is a critical pathway for nutrient export in semi-arid catchments. We investigated nutrient dynamics during three summer storms characterized by different rainfall magnitude in 2012 in a semi-arid catchment of northern China. The results showed that, in response to storm events, nutrient dynamics displayed big variation in temporal trends of nutrient concentration and in nutrient concentration-flow discharge relationships. Nutrient concentrations had broader fluctuations during an extreme storm than during lesser storms, whereas the concentration ranges of the a moderate storm were no broader than those of a smaller one. The different concentration fluctuations were caused by storm magnitude and intensity coupled with the antecedent rainfall amount and cumulative nutrients. Correlation coefficients between nutrient concentrations and flow discharge varied from positive to negative for the three different events. There were no consistent hysteresis effects for the three different events, and no hysteresis effects were observed for any of the variables during the moderate storm (E2). Our findings provide useful information for better understanding nutrient loss mechanisms during storm events in semi-arid areas of a monsoon climate region.
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Comparison of radar data versus rainfall data
Espinosa, B.; Hromadka, T.V.; Perez, R.
2015-01-01
Doppler radar data are increasingly used in rainfall-runoff synthesis studies, perhaps due to radar data availability, among other factors. However, the veracity of the radar data are often a topic of concern. In this paper, three Doppler radar outcomes developed by the United States National Weather Service at three radar sites are examined and compared to actual rain gage data for two separate severe storm events in order to assess accuracy in the published radar estimates of rainfall. Because the subject storms were very intense rainfall events lasting approximately one hour in duration, direct comparisons between the three radar gages themselves can be made, as well as a comparison to rain gage data at a rain gage location subjected to the same storm cells. It is shown that topographic interference with the radar outcomes can be a significant factor leading to differences between radar and rain gage readings, and that care is needed in calibrating radar outcomes using available rain gage data in order to interpolate rainfall estimates between rain gages using the spatial variation observed in the radar readings. The paper establishes and describes•the need for “ground-truthing” of radar data, and•possible errors due to topographic interference. PMID:26649276
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.
2013-07-01
Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are strongly modulated by the topography and catchment specific geomorphologic features that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The three case-studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regional hazard warning system.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Zha, Tingting; Schümberg, Sabine; Müller, Hannes; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph
2017-04-01
Rainfall variability within a storm is of major importance for fast hydrological processes, e.g. surface runoff, erosion and solute dissipation from surface soils. To investigate and simulate the impacts of within-storm variabilities on these processes, long time series of rainfall with high resolution are required. Yet, observed precipitation records of hourly or higher resolution are in most cases available only for a small number of stations and only for a few years. To obtain long time series of alternating rainfall events and interstorm periods while conserving the statistics of observed rainfall events, the Poisson model can be used. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascades have been widely applied to disaggregate rainfall time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. We present a new coupling approach of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model that preserves the characteristics of rainfall events as well as inter-storm periods. In the first step, a Poisson rectangular pulse model is applied to generate discrete rainfall events (duration and mean intensity) and inter-storm periods (duration). The rainfall events are subsequently disaggregated to high-resolution time series (user-specified, e.g. 10 min resolution) by a multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model. One of the challenges of coupling these models is to parameterize the cascade model for the event durations generated by the Poisson model. In fact, the cascade model is best suited to downscale rainfall data with constant time step such as daily precipitation data. Without starting from a fixed time step duration (e.g. daily), the disaggregation of events requires some modifications of the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model proposed by Olsson (1998): Firstly, the parameterization of the cascade model for events of different durations requires continuous functions for the probabilities of the multiplicative weights, which we implemented through sigmoid functions. Secondly, the branching of the first and last box is constrained to preserve the rainfall event durations generated by the Poisson rectangular pulse model. The event-based continuous time step rainfall generator has been developed and tested using 10 min and hourly rainfall data of four stations in North-Eastern Germany. The model performs well in comparison to observed rainfall in terms of event durations and mean event intensities as well as wet spell and dry spell durations. It is currently being tested using data from other stations across Germany and in different climate zones. Furthermore, the rainfall event generator is being applied in modelling approaches aimed at understanding the impact of rainfall variability on hydrological processes. Reference Olsson, J.: Evaluation of a scaling cascade model for temporal rainfall disaggregation, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2, 19.30
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Collins, B. D.; Stock, J. D.; Foster, K. A.; Knepprath, N.; Reid, M. E.; Schmidt, K. M.; Whitman, M. W.
2011-12-01
Intense or prolonged rainfall triggers shallow landslides in steeplands of the San Francisco Bay Area each year. These landslides cause damage to built infrastructure and housing, and in some cases, lead to fatalities. Although our ability to forecast and map the distribution of rainfall has improved (e.g., NEXRAD, SMART-R), our ability to estimate landslide susceptibility is limited by a lack of information about the subsurface response to rainfall. In particular, the role of antecedent soil moisture content in setting the timing of shallow landslide failures remains unconstrained. Advances in instrumentation and telemetry have substantially reduced the cost of such monitoring, making it feasible to set up and maintain networks of such instruments in areas with a documented history of shallow landslides. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a pilot project to establish a series of shallow landslide monitoring stations in the San Francisco Bay area. The goal of this project is to obtain a long-term (multi-year) record of subsurface hydrologic conditions that occur from winter storms. Three monitoring sites are now installed in key landslide prone regions of the Bay Area (East Bay Hills, Marin County, and San Francisco Peninsula Hills) each consisting of a rain gage and multiple nests of soil-moisture sensors, matric-potential sensors, and piezometers. The sites were selected with similar characteristics in mind consisting of: (1) convergent bedrock hollow topographic settings located near ridge tops, (2) underlying sandstone bedrock substrates, (3) similar topographic gradients (~30°), (4) vegetative assemblages of grasses with minor chaparral, and (5) a documented history of landsliding in the vicinity of each site. These characteristics are representative of shallow-landslide-prone regions of the San Francisco Bay Area and also provide some constraint on the ability to compare and contrast subsurface response across different regions. Data streams from two of the sites, one operational in 2009 and one in 2010 have been analyzed and showcase both the seasonal patterns of moisture increase and decrease between summer-winter-summer conditions, as well as patterns of cyclical short-term wetting and drying as storms pass through the region. Further, the data show that at one location (East Bay Hills), storm-generated antecedent soil moisture conditions led to positive pore water pressures that correlate directly to shallow landsliding observed in the immediate vicinity of the monitoring site. This information, along with more extensive and continued monitoring and analysis should provide a basis and methodology for performing future shallow landslide assessments which depend not only on forecast rainfall, but also on pre-storm antecedent, subsurface soil moisture conditions.
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TRMM precipitation analysis of extreme storms in South America: Bias and climatological contribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rasmussen, K. L.; Houze, R.; Zuluaga, M. D.; Choi, S. L.; Chaplin, M.
2013-12-01
The TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite was designed both to measure spatial and temporal variation of tropical rainfall around the globe and to understand the factors controlling the precipitation. TRMM observations have led to the realization that storms just east of the Andes in southeastern South America are among the most intense deep convection in the world. For a complete perspective of the impact of intense precipitation systems on the hydrologic cycle in South America, it is necessary to assess the contribution from various forms of extreme storms to the climatological rainfall. However, recent studies have suggested that the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) algorithm significantly underestimates surface rainfall in deep convection over land. Prior to investigating the climatological behavior, this research first investigates the range of the rain bias in storms containing four different types of extreme radar echoes: deep convective cores, deep and wide convective cores, wide convective cores, and broad stratiform regions over South America. The TRMM PR algorithm exhibits bias in all four extreme echo types considered here when the algorithm rates are compared to a range of conventional Z-R relations. Storms with deep convective cores, defined as high reflectivity echo volumes that extend above 10 km in altitude, show the greatest underestimation, and the bias is unrelated to their echo top height. The bias in wide convective cores, defined as high reflectivity echo volumes that extend horizontally over 1,000 km2, relates to the echo top, indicating that storms with significant mixed phase and ice hydrometeors are similarly affected by assumptions in the TRMM PR algorithm. The subtropical region tends to have more intense precipitating systems than the tropics, but the relationship between the TRMM PR rain bias and storm type is the same regardless of the climatological regime. The most extreme storms are typically not collocated with regions of high climatological precipitation. A quantitative approach that accounts for the previously described bias using TRMM PR data is employed to investigate the role of the most extreme precipitating systems on the hydrological cycle in South America. These data are first used to investigate the relative contribution of precipitation from the TRMM-identified echo cores to each separate storm in which the convective cores are embedded. The second part of the study assesses how much of the climatological rainfall in South America is accounted for by storms containing deep convective, wide convective, and broad stratiform echo components. Systems containing these echoes produce very different hydrologic responses. From a hydrologic and climatological viewpoint, this empirical knowledge is critical, as the type of runoff and flooding that may occur depends on the specific character of the convective storm and has broad implications for the hydrological cycle in this region.
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Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto
2013-04-01
Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed one (i) largely reduces the subjectivity in the choice of the threshold model and in how it is calculated, and (ii) it can be easier set-up in other study areas. The proposed approach can be conveniently integrated in existing early-warning system to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the real landslide occurrence probability associated to rainfall events and its uncertainty.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cannon, S. H.; Boldt, E. M.; Laber, J. L.; Kean, J. W.; Staley, D. M.
2011-12-01
Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies can be faced with evacuation and resource-deployment decisions well in advance of coming winter storms and during storms themselves. Information critical to these decisions is needed for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands is used to develop a system for classifying magnitudes of hydrologic response in this setting. The four-class system describes combinations of reported volumes of individual debris flows, consequences of debris flows and floods in an urban setting, and spatial extents of the hydrologic response. Magnitude 0 events show a negligible response, while Magnitude I events are characterized by small (<1,000 m3) debris flows or low-discharge floods produced from one or two drainage basins. A few culverts and storm drains may be blocked, a few streets may be partially flooded or blocked by water and debris, and a few buildings near the mountain front may be damaged. Magnitude II events are characterized by two to five moderately-sized (1,000 to 10,000 m3) debris flows or one large (>10,000 m3) event. Several culverts or storm drains may be blocked or fail, several streets may be flooded or completely blocked by water and debris, and buildings, streets, and bridges may be damaged or destroyed. Magnitude III events consist of widespread and abundant debris flows of volumes >10,000 m3 and high discharge flooding causing significant impact to the built environment. Many streets, storm drains, and streets may be completely blocked by debris, making many streets unsafe for travel. Several large buildings, sections of infrastructure corridors and bridges may be damaged or destroyed. The range of rainfall conditions associated with different magnitude classes are defined by correlating local rainfall data with the response magnitude information. Magnitude 0 events can be expected when within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) of given durations (D) fall below the threshold A=0.4D0.5. Magnitude I events can be expected when storm rainfall conditions are above the threshold A=0.4D0.5 and below A=0.5D0.6 for durations greater than 1 hour. Magnitude II events will be generated in response to rainfall accumulations and durations between A=0.4D0.5 and A=0.9D0.5 for durations less than one hour, and between A=0.5D0.6 and A=0.9D0.5 for durations greater than one hour. Magnitude III events can be expected in response to rainfall conditions above the threshold A=0.9D 0.5. Rainfall threshold-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions as an emergency-response decision chart, which leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels. Use of this information in the planning and response decision-making process could result in increased safety for both the public and emergency responders.
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Use of Historical Radar Rainfall Estimates to Develop Design Storms in Los Angeles.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Curtis, D. C.; Humphrey, J.; Moffitt, J.
2007-12-01
A database of 15-minute historical gage adjusted radar-rainfall estimates was used to evaluate the geometric properties of storms in the City of Los Angeles, CA. The database includes selected months containing significant rainfall during the period 1996-2007. For each time step, areas of contiguous rainfall were identified as individual storm cells. An idealized ellipse was fit to each storm cell and the properties of the ellipse (e.g., size, shape, orientation, velocity and other parameters) were recorded. To accurately account for the range of storm cell sizes, capture a large number of storm cells in a climatologically similar area, assess the variability of storm movement, and minimize the impact of edge effects (i.e., incomplete coverage of cells entering and leaving), a study area substantially larger than the City of Los Angeles was used. The study area extends from city center to 30 miles north to the crest of San Gabriel Mountains, 45 miles east to Ontario, 60 miles south to Santa Catalina Island, and 70 miles west to Oxnard, an area of about10,000 square miles. Radar data for this area over 30 months in the study yields many thousands of storm cells for analysis. Storms were separated into classes by origin, direction and speed of movement. Preliminary investigations considers three types: Arctic origin (west-northwest), Pacific origin (southwest) and Tropical origin (south or stationary). Radar data (for 1996-2007) and upper air maps (1948-2006) are used to identify the direction and speed of significant precipitation events. Typical duration and temporal patterns of Los Angeles historical storms were described by season and storm type. Time of maximum intensity loading variation were determined for a selection of historic storms Depth-Areal Reduction Factors (DARF) for cloudbursts were developedfrom the radar data. These data curves are fit to equations showing the relationships between DARF, area and central intensity. Separate DARF curves are developed for 6X (6 events per year), 4X, 3X, 2X, 1, 2, 5 and 10 year recurrence, and durations from 5 minutes to 7-days. A comparison is made between DARF derived in these analyses with NOAA Atlas 12 DARF, the USACE Sierra Madre Storm and other DARF developed for the interior Southwest. Orographic increases in DDF are related to the Los Angeles County Flood Control District Hydrology Manual 24-hr 50-yr Precipitation maps, elevation from USGS topographic maps and Mean Annual Precipitation maps.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thompson, Elizabeth J.
Heating and rain freshening often stabilize the upper tropical ocean, bringing the ocean mixed layer depth to the sea surface. Thin mixed layer depths concentrate subsequent fluxes of heat, momentum, and freshwater in a thin layer. Rapid heating and cooling of the tropical sea surface is important for controlling or triggering atmospheric convection. Ocean mixed layer depth and SST variability due to rainfall events have not been as comprehensively explored as the ocean's response to heating or momentum fluxes, but are very important to understand in the tropical warm pool where precipitation exceeds evaporation and many climate phenomena such as ENSO and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) originate. The first part of the dissertation investigates tropical, oceanic convective and stratiform rainfall variability and determines how to most accurately estimate rainfall accumulation with radar from each rain type. The second, main part of the dissertation uses central Indian Ocean salinity and temperature microstructure measurements and surrounding radar-derived rainfall maps throughout two DYNAMO MJO events to determine the impact of precipitating systems on upper-ocean mixed layer depth and resulting SST variability. The ocean mixed layer was as shallow as 0-5 m during 528/1071 observation hours throughout 2 MJOs (54% of the data record). Out of 43 observation days, thirty-eight near-surface mixed layer depth events were attributed to freshwater stabilization, called rain-formed mixed layers (RFLs). Thirty other mixed layer stratification events were classified as diurnal warm layers (DWLs) due to stable temperature stratification by daytime heating. RFLs and DWLs were observed to interact in two ways: 1) RFLs fill preexisting DWLs and add to total near-surface mixed layer stratification, which occurred ten times; 2) RFLs last long enough to heat, creating a new DWL on top of the RFL, which happened nine times. These combination stratification events were responsible for the highest SST warming rates and some of the highest SSTs leading up to the most active precipitation and wind stage of the each MJO. DWLs without RFL interaction helped produce the highest SSTs in suppressed MJO conditions. As storm intensity, frequency, duration, and the ability of storms to maintain stratiform rain areas increased, RFLS became more common in the disturbed and active MJO phases. Along with the barrier layer, DWL and RFL stratification events helped suppress wind-mixing, cooling, and mixed layer deepening throughout the MJO. We hypothesize that both salinity and temperature stratification events, and their interactions, are important for controlling SST variability and therefore MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean. Most RFLs were caused by submesoscale and mesoscale convective systems with stratiform rain components and local rain accumulations above 10 mm but with winds mostly below 8 m s-1. We hypothesize that the stratiform rain components of storms helped stratify the ocean by providing weak but widespread, steady, long-lived freshwater fluxes. Although generally limited to rain rates ≤ 10 mm hr-1, it is demonstrated that stratiform rain can exert a strong buoyancy flux into the ocean, i.e. as high as maximum daytime solar heating. Storm morphology and the preexisting vertical structure of ocean stability were critical in determining ocean mixed layer depth variability in the presence of rain. Therefore, we suggest that high spatial and temporal resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models that can parameterize or resolve storm morphology as well as ocean mixed layer and barrier layer evolution are needed to reproduce the diurnal and intraseasonal SST variability documented throughout the MJO.
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GOES-West Satellite Eyes Soggy Storm Approaching California
2014-02-28
A swirling Eastern Pacific Ocean storm system headed for California was spotted by NOAA's GOES-West satellite on February 28. According to the National Weather Service, this storm system has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to the drought-stricken state. The storm was captured using visible data from NOAA's GOES-West or GOES-15 satellite on Feb. 28 at 1915 UTC/11:15 a.m. PST was made into an image by NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The storm's center appeared as a tight swirl, with bands of clouds and showers already sweeping over the state extending from northern California to Baja California, Mexico. At 11:30 a.m. PST on February 28, Bill Patzert, climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. said, "Right now from northern to southern California we are being battered by very heavy rain, strong winds and our coastal communities are being battered by high surf. Through the weekend we are bracing for mud and rock slides in areas that recently burned [from wildfires]. Flooding is looming up and down the state." The National Weather Service (NWS) serving Los Angeles posted a Flood Watch for the region on Friday, February 28. The Flood Watch notes the "potential for flash flooding and debris flows for some 2013 and 2014 burn areas in Los Angeles County from this morning through Saturday evening (March 1).” The NWS Flood Watch also noted "a very strong and dynamic storm will bring a significant amount of rain to much of southwestern California through Saturday evening. A flash flood watch has been issued for several recent burn areas in Los Angeles County due to the abundant rainfall expected. Rain rates at times are expected to range from a half inch to one inch per hour which could cause significant mud and debris flows. There will be a chance of thunderstorms with locally higher rainfall rates." "Californians haven't seen rain and wind this powerful in 3 years," Patzert said. "By early next week, as this system moves east, this powerful system will wreak havoc causing snow and ice storms through the Midwest into the Northeast." GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. On a positive note, Patzert noted, "This is a nice down payment on drought recovery in the parched Western U.S." For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's National Weather Service website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram
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Landslides triggered by the winter 1996-97 storms in the Puget Lowland, Washington
Baum, Rex L.; Chleborad, Alan F.; Schuster, Robert L.
1998-01-01
Snowmelt and rainfall events triggered many landslides and debris flows in the Seattle, Washington, area during late December 1996 and January and March 1997. Landslides caused the deaths of at least four people, millions of dollars in damage to public and private property, lost revenues, traffic diversions, and other direct and indirect losses. Although shallow slides and debris flows were the most common slope failures, many deep-seated slides also occurred. Comparing maps that show distribution of historic landslides with reports of landslides compiled by city and county governments for the winter of 1996-97 and our field reconnaissance of recent landslide deposits and scars indicates that many bluffs and steep hillsides are sites of recurring failures. Investigation of the 1996-97 landslides indicates that houses and other structures built downslope from steep bluffs are in particular danger of impact by debris flows, while those on the benches, slopes, or rim of bluffs are subject to severe damage by deep slides.
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Jorgensen, David P.; Hanshaw, Maiana N.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L; Staley, Dennis M.; Kean, Jason W.; Restrepo, Pedro J.
2011-01-01
A portable truck-mounted C-band Doppler weather radar was deployed to observe rainfall over the Station Fire burn area near Los Angeles, California, during the winter of 2009/10 to assist with debris-flow warning decisions. The deployments were a component of a joint NOAA–U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research effort to improve definition of the rainfall conditions that trigger debris flows from steep topography within recent wildfire burn areas. A procedure was implemented to blend various dual-polarized estimators of precipitation (for radar observations taken below the freezing level) using threshold values for differential reflectivity and specific differential phase shift that improves the accuracy of the rainfall estimates over a specific burn area sited with terrestrial tipping-bucket rain gauges. The portable radar outperformed local Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) National Weather Service network radars in detecting rainfall capable of initiating post-fire runoff-generated debris flows. The network radars underestimated hourly precipitation totals by about 50%. Consistent with intensity–duration threshold curves determined from past debris-flow events in burned areas in Southern California, the portable radar-derived rainfall rates exceeded the empirical thresholds over a wider range of storm durations with a higher spatial resolution than local National Weather Service operational radars. Moreover, the truck-mounted C-band radar dual-polarimetric-derived estimates of rainfall intensity provided a better guide to the expected severity of debris-flow events, based on criteria derived from previous events using rain gauge data, than traditional radar-derived rainfall approaches using reflectivity–rainfall relationships for either the portable or operational network WSR-88D radars. Part of the reason for the improvement was due to siting the radar closer to the burn zone than the WSR-88Ds, but use of the dual-polarimetric variables improved the rainfall estimation by ~12% over the use of traditional Z–R relationships.
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Remote sensing of severe convective storms over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hung, R. J.; Liu, J. M.; Tsao, D. Y.; Smith, R. E.
1984-01-01
The American satellite, GOES-1 was moved to the Indian Ocean at 58 deg E during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE). The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau significantly affects the initiation and development of heavy rainfall and severe storms in China, just as the Rocky Mountains influence the local storms in the United States. Satelite remote sensing of short-lived, meso-scale convective storms is particularly important for covering a huge area of a high elevation with a low population density, such as the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Results of this study show that a high growth rate of the convective clouds, followed by a rapid collapse of the cloud top, is associated with heavy rainfall in the area. The tops of the convective clouds developed over the Plateau lie between the altitudes of the two tropopauses, while the tops of convective clouds associated with severe storms in the United States usually extend much above the tropopause.
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Remote rainfall sensing for landslide hazard analysis
Wieczorek, Gerald F.; McWreath, Harry; Davenport, Clay
2001-01-01
Methods of assessing landslide hazards and providing warnings are becoming more advanced as remote sensing of rainfall provides more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Two recent landslide disasters are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. For the June 27, 1995, storm in Madison County, Virginia, USA, National Weather Service WSR-88D Doppler radar provided rainfall estimates based on a relation between cloud reflectivity and moisture content on a 1 sq. km. resolution every 6 minutes. Ground-based measurements of rainfall intensity and precipitation total, in addition to landslide timing and distribution, were compared with the radar-derived rainfall data. For the December 14-16, 1999, storm in Vargas State, Venezuela, infrared sensing from the GOES-8 satellite of cloud top temperatures provided the basis for NOAA/NESDIS rainfall estimates on a 16 sq. km. resolution every 30 minutes. These rainfall estimates were also compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and landslide distribution. In both examples, the remotely sensed data either overestimated or underestimated ground-based values by up to a factor of 2. The factors that influenced the accuracy of rainfall data include spatial registration and map projection, as well as prevailing wind direction, cloud orientation, and topography.
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Effect of spatial variability of storm on the optimal placement of best management practices (BMPs).
Chang, C L; Chiueh, P T; Lo, S L
2007-12-01
It is significant to design best management practices (BMPs) and determine the proper BMPs placement for the purpose that can not only satisfy the water quantity and water quality standard, but also lower the total cost of BMPs. The spatial rainfall variability can have much effect on its relative runoff and non-point source pollution (NPSP). Meantime, the optimal design and placement of BMPs would be different as well. The objective of this study was to discuss the relationship between the spatial variability of rainfall and the optimal BMPs placements. Three synthetic rainfall storms with varied spatial distributions, including uniform rainfall, downstream rainfall and upstream rainfall, were designed. WinVAST model was applied to predict runoff and NPSP. Additionally, detention pond and swale were selected for being structural BMPs. Scatter search was applied to find the optimal BMPs placement. The results show that mostly the total cost of BMPs is higher in downstream rainfall than in upstream rainfall or uniform rainfall. Moreover, the cost of detention pond is much higher than swale. Thus, even though detention pond has larger efficiency for lowering peak flow and pollutant exports, it is not always the determined set in each subbasin.
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Defining Flood Zone Transitions in Low-Gradient Coastal Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.
2018-03-01
Worldwide, coastal, and deltaic communities are susceptible to flooding from the individual and combined effects of rainfall excess and astronomic tide and storm surge inundation. Such flood events are a present (and future) cause of concern as observed from recent storms such as the 2016 Louisiana flood and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. To assess flood risk across coastal landscapes, it is advantageous to first delineate flood transition zones, which we define as areas susceptible to hydrologic and coastal flooding and their collective interaction. We utilize numerical simulations combining rainfall excess and storm surge for the 2016 Louisiana flood to describe a flood transition zone for southeastern Louisiana. We show that the interaction of rainfall excess with coastal surge is nonlinear and less than the superposition of their individual components. Our analysis provides a foundation to define flooding zones across coastal landscapes throughout the world to support flood risk assessments.
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Oltmann, R.N.; Guay, J.R.; Shay, J.M.
1987-01-01
Data were collected as part of the National Urban Runoff Program to characterize urban runoff in Fresno, California. Rainfall-runoff quantity and quality data are included along with atmospheric dry-deposition and street-surface particulate quality data. The data are presented in figures and tables that reflect four land uses: industrial, single-dwelling residential, multiple-dwelling residential, and commercial. A total of 255 storms were monitored for rainfall and runoff quantity. Runoff samples from 112 of these storms were analyzed for physical, organic, inorganic, and biological constituents. The majority of the remaining storms have pH and specific conductance data only. Ninety-two composite rain samples were collected. Of these, 63 were analyzed for physical, inorganic, and (or) organic constituents. The remaining rainfall samples have pH and specific conductance data only. Nineteen atmospheric deposition and 21 street-particulate samples were collected and analyzed for inorganic and organic constituents. The report also details equipment utilization and operation, and discusses data collection methods. (USGS)
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Numerical simulation diagnostics of a flash flood event in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samman, Ahmad
On 26 January 2011, a severe storm hit the city of Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The storm resulted in heavy rainfall, which produced a flash flood in a short period of time. This event caused at least eleven fatalities and more than 114 injuries. Unfortunately, the observed rainfall data are limited to the weather station at King Abdul Aziz International airport, which is north of the city, while the most extreme precipitation occurred over the southern part of the city. This observation was useful to compare simulation result even though it does not reflect the severity of the event. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) developed at Colorado State University was used to study this storm event. RAMS simulations indicted that a quasi-stationary Mesoscale convective system developed over the city of Jeddah and lasted for several hours. It was the source of the huge amount of rainfall. The model computed a total rainfall of more than 110 mm in the southern part of the city, where the flash flood occurred. This precipitation estimation was confirmed by the actual observation of the weather radar. While the annual rainfall in Jeddah during the winter varies from 50 to 100 mm, the amount of the rainfall resulting from this storm event exceeded the climatological total annual rainfall. The simulation of this event showed that warm sea surface temperature, combined with high humidity in the lower atmosphere and a large amount of convective available potential energy (CAPE) provided a favorable environment for convection. It also showed the presence of a cyclonic system over the north and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, and a subtropical anti-cyclone over Northeastern Africa that contributed to cold air advection bringing cold air to the Jeddah area. In addition, an anti-cyclone (blocking) centered over east and southeastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea produced a low level jet over the southern part of the Red Sea, which transported large water vapor amounts over Jeddah. The simulation results showed that the main driver behind the storm was the interaction between these systems over the city of Jeddah (an urban heat island) that produced strong low-level convergence. Several sensitivity experiments were carried out showed that other variables could have contributed to storm severity as well. Those sensitivity experiments included several simulations in which the following variables were changed: physiographic properties were altered by removing the water surfaces, removing the urban heat island environment from the model, and changing the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei. The results of these sensitivity experiments showed that these properties have significant effects on the storm formation and severity.
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Wildfire impacts on the processes that generate debris flows in burned watersheds
Parise, M.; Cannon, S.H.
2012-01-01
Every year, and in many countries worldwide, wildfires cause significant damage and economic losses due to both the direct effects of the fires and the subsequent accelerated runoff, erosion, and debris flow. Wildfires can have profound effects on the hydrologic response of watersheds by changing the infiltration characteristics and erodibility of the soil, which leads to decreased rainfall infiltration, significantly increased overland flow and runoff in channels, and movement of soil. Debris-flow activity is among the most destructive consequences of these changes, often causing extensive damage to human infrastructure. Data from the Mediterranean area and Western United States of America help identify the primary processes that result in debris flows in recently burned areas. Two primary processes for the initiation of fire-related debris flows have been so far identified: (1) runoff-dominated erosion by surface overland flow; and (2) infiltration-triggered failure and mobilization of a discrete landslide mass. The first process is frequently documented immediately post-fire and leads to the generation of debris flows through progressive bulking of storm runoff with sediment eroded from the hillslopes and channels. As sediment is incorporated into water, runoff can convert to debris flow. The conversion to debris flow may be observed at a position within a drainage network that appears to be controlled by threshold values of upslope contributing area and its gradient. At these locations, sufficient eroded material has been incorporated, relative to the volume of contributing surface runoff, to generate debris flows. Debris flows have also been generated from burned basins in response to increased runoff by water cascading over a steep, bedrock cliff, and incorporating material from readily erodible colluvium or channel bed. Post-fire debris flows have also been generated by infiltration-triggered landslide failures which then mobilize into debris flows. However, only 12% of documented cases exhibited this process. When they do occur, the landslide failures range in thickness from a few tens of centimeters to more than 6 m, and generally involve the soil and colluvium-mantled hillslopes. Surficial landslide failures in burned areas most frequently occur in response to prolonged periods of storm rainfall, or prolonged rainfall in combination with rapid snowmelt or rain-on-snow events. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
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Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for postfire debris-flow emergency-response planning
Cannon, S.H.; Boldt, E.M.; Laber, J.L.; Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.
2011-01-01
Following wildfires, emergency-response and public-safety agencies can be faced with evacuation and resource-deployment decisions well in advance of coming winter storms and during storms themselves. Information critical to these decisions is provided for recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. A compilation of information on the hydrologic response to winter storms from recently burned areas in southern California steeplands is used to develop a system for classifying magnitudes of hydrologic response. The four-class system describes combinations of reported volumes of individual debris flows, consequences of debris flows and floods in an urban setting, and spatial extents of the hydrologic response. The range of rainfall conditions associated with different magnitude classes is defined by integrating local rainfall data with the response magnitude information. Magnitude I events can be expected when within-storm rainfall accumulations (A) of given durations (D) fall above the threshold A = 0.4D0.5 and below A = 0.5D0.6 for durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude II events will be generated in response to rainfall accumulations and durations between A = 0.4D0.5 and A = 0.9D0.5 for durations less than 1 h, and between A = 0.5D0.6 and A = 0.9D0.5 or durations greater than 1 h. Magnitude III events can be expected in response to rainfall conditions above the threshold A = 0.9D0.5. Rainfall threshold-magnitude relations are linked with potential emergency-response actions as an emergency-response decision chart, which leads a user through steps to determine potential event magnitudes and identify possible evacuation and resource-deployment levels. Use of this information in planning and response decision-making process could result in increased safety for both the public and emergency responders. ?? 2011 US Government.
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Jacobson, Robert B.
1993-01-01
The heavy rains of November 3-5, 1985, produced record floods and extensive landsliding in the Potomac and Cheat River basins in West Virginia and Virginia (pl. 1). Although rainfall intensity was moderate, the storm covered a very large area and produced record floods for basins in the size range of 1000-10,000 km2. In addition, thousands of landslides were triggered on slopes underlain by shale bedrock. The total social cost of the storm amounted to 70 lives lost and an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to homes, businesses, roads, and productive land in West Virginia and Virginia (Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 1985a, b). These extreme costs were incurred despite the fact that the affected area is sparsely populated. To understand the origins and geomorphic effects of the 1985 storm, studies were undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Maryland, West Virginia University, Cornell University, University of Virginia, The Johns Hopkins University, and Carleton College. Personnel were also consulted from the National Weather Service, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Soil Conservation Service, and Interstate Commission on the Potomac River basin. This cooperative effort serves to document the effects of the storm as an example of an extreme geomorphic event in the central Appalachian Mountains. The following chapters comprise observations and preliminary analyses for some of the observed phenomena. Subsequent publications by the contributors to this volume will expand the scope of this research.
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Landslide movement in southwest Colorado triggered by atmospheric tides
Schulz, W.H.; Kean, J.W.; Wang, G.
2009-01-01
Landslides are among the most hazardous of geological processes, causing thousands of casualties and damage on the order of billions of dollars annually. The movement of most landslides occurs along a discrete shear surface, and is triggered by a reduction in the frictional strength of the surface. Infiltration of water into the landslide from rainfall and snowmelt and ground motion from earthquakes are generally implicated in lowering the frictional strength of this surface. However, solid-Earth and ocean tides have recently been shown to trigger shear sliding in other processes, such as earthquakes and glacial motion. Here we use observations and numerical modelling to show that a similar processatmospheric tidescan trigger movement in an ongoing landslide. The Slumgullion landslide, located in the SanJuan Mountains of Colorado, shows daily movement, primarily during diurnal low tides of the atmosphere. According to our model, the tidal changes in air pressure cause air and water in the sediment pores to flow vertically, altering the frictional stress of the shear surface; upward fluid flow during periods of atmospheric low pressure is most conducive to sliding. We suggest that tidally modulated changes in shear strength may also affect the stability of other landslides, and that the rapid pressure variations associated with some fast-moving storm systems could trigger a similar response. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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Oltmann, Richard N.; Shulters, Michael V.
1989-01-01
Rainfall and runoff quantity and quality were monitored for industrial, single-dwelling residential, multiple-dwelling residential, and commercial land-use catchments during the 1981-82 and 1982-83 rain seasons. Storm-composite rainfall and discrete run6ff samples were analyzed for numerous inorganic, biological, physical, and organic constituents. Atmospheric dry-deposition and street-surface particulate samples also were collected and analyzed. With the exception of the industrial catchment, the highest runoff concentrations for most constituents occurred during the initial storm runoff and then decreased throughout the remainder of the storm, independent of hydraulic conditions. Metal concentrations were high during initial runoff, but also increased as flow increased. Constituent concentrations for the industrial catchment fluctuated greatly during storms. Statistical tests showed higher ammonia plus organic nitrogen, ammonia, pH, and phenol concentrations in rainfall at the industrial site than at the single-dwelling residential and laboratory sites. Statistical testing of runoff quality data showed higher concentrations for the industrial catchment than for the two residential and commercial catchments for most constituents. Total recoverable lead was one of the few constituents that had lower concentrations for the industrial catchment than for the other three catchments. The two residential catchments showed no significant difference in runoff concentrations for 50 of the 57 constituents used in the statistical analysis. The commercial catchment runoff concentrations for most constituents generally were similar to the residential catchments. Although constituent concentrations generally were higher for the industrial catchment than for the commercial catchment, constituent storm loads from the commercial catchment were similar to the industrial catchment because of the greater runoff volume from the highly impervious commercial catchment. Between 10 and 50 percent of the constituent runoff loads for the two residential catchments were attributed to the rainfall load, with the percentages generally considerably less for the industrial catchment. Event mean concentrations (EMC) for most constituents for all but the industrial catchment were highest for the first two or three storms of the rain season after which they became almost constant. Constituent event mean concentrations for the industrial catchment generally did not show any pattern throughout a rain season. Multiple-regression predictor equations for event mean concentrations were developed for several constituents for all sites. Average annual constituent unit loads were computed for 18 constituents for each catchment. The organophosphorus compounds, diazinon, malathion, and parathion were the most prevalent pesticides detected in rainfall. Diazinon was detected in all 54 rainfall samples. Parathion and malathion were detected in 49 and 50 samples, respectively. Other pesticides detected in rainfall included chlordane, lindane, methoxychlor, endosulfan, and 2,4-D. Of these, only methoxychlor and endosulfan were not consistently detected in runoff.
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Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Maofeng
Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET events on the projected increase of TC frequency in the eastern North Atlantic, highlighting increased exposure of the northeastern United States and Western Europe to storm hazards. Retrospective seasonal forecast experiments demonstrate the skill of HiFLOR in predicting basinwide and regional ET frequency. This skill, however, is not seen in the seasonal prediction of ET rate. More work on the property of signal-to-noise ratio of ET rate is needed.
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Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.
2012-04-01
During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Lake Michigan. The radar observations are processed using Hydro-NEXRAD algorithms in order to produce rainfall estimates with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of 15 min. The rainfall estimates are bias-corrected on a daily basis using a network of rain gauges. Besides a thorough evaluation of the different challenges in investigating heavy rain as described above the study includes suggestions for frequency analysis methods as well as studies of hydrometeorological features of single events.
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Validation of Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Severe Storms (Hurricanes & Tornados)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nourozi, N.; Mahani, S.; Khanbilvardi, R.
2005-12-01
Severe storms such as hurricanes and tornadoes cause devastating damages, almost every year, over a large section of the United States. More accurate forecasting intensity and track of a heavy storm can help to reduce if not to prevent its damages to lives, infrastructure, and economy. Estimating accurate high resolution quantitative precipitation (QPE) from a hurricane, required to improve the forecasting and warning capabilities, is still a challenging problem because of physical characteristics of the hurricane even when it is still over the ocean. Satellite imagery seems to be a valuable source of information for estimating and forecasting heavy precipitation and also flash floods, particularly for over the oceans where the traditional ground-based gauge and radar sources cannot provide any information. To improve the capability of a rainfall retrieval algorithm for estimating QPE of severe storms, its product is evaluated in this study. High (hourly 4km x 4km) resolutions satellite infrared-based rainfall products, from the NESDIS Hydro-Estimator (HE) and also PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using an Artificial Neural Networks) algorithms, have been tested against NEXRAD stage-IV and rain gauge observations in this project. Three strong hurricanes: Charley (category 4), Jeanne (category 3), and Ivan (category 3) that caused devastating damages over Florida in the summer 2004, have been considered to be investigated. Preliminary results demonstrate that HE tends to underestimate rain rates when NEXRAD shows heavy storm (rain rates greater than 25 mm/hr) and to overestimate when NEXRAD gives low rainfall amounts, but PERSIANN tends to underestimate rain rates, in general.
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Data-Driven Geospatial Visual Analytics for Real-Time Urban Flooding Decision Support
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Y.; Hill, D.; Rodriguez, A.; Marini, L.; Kooper, R.; Myers, J.; Wu, X.; Minsker, B. S.
2009-12-01
Urban flooding is responsible for the loss of life and property as well as the release of pathogens and other pollutants into the environment. Previous studies have shown that spatial distribution of intense rainfall significantly impacts the triggering and behavior of urban flooding. However, no general purpose tools yet exist for deriving rainfall data and rendering them in real-time at the resolution of hydrologic units used for analyzing urban flooding. This paper presents a new visual analytics system that derives and renders rainfall data from the NEXRAD weather radar system at the sewershed (i.e. urban hydrologic unit) scale in real-time for a Chicago stormwater management project. We introduce a lightweight Web 2.0 approach which takes advantages of scientific workflow management and publishing capabilities developed at NCSA (National Center for Supercomputing Applications), streaming data-aware semantic content management repository, web-based Google Earth/Map and time-aware KML (Keyhole Markup Language). A collection of polygon-based virtual sensors is created from the NEXRAD Level II data using spatial, temporal and thematic transformations at the sewershed level in order to produce persistent virtual rainfall data sources for the animation. Animated color-coded rainfall map in the sewershed can be played in real-time as a movie using time-aware KML inside the web browser-based Google Earth for visually analyzing the spatiotemporal patterns of the rainfall intensity in the sewershed. Such system provides valuable information for situational awareness and improved decision support during extreme storm events in an urban area. Our further work includes incorporating additional data (such as basement flooding events data) or physics-based predictive models that can be used for more integrated data-driven decision support.
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Kelly, Todd; Romero, Orlando; Jimenez, Mike
2006-01-01
Urbanization has dramatically increased precipitation runoff to the system of drainage channels and natural stream channels in the Albuquerque, New Mexico, metropolitan area. Rainfall and runoff data are important for planning and designing future storm-water conveyance channels in newly developing areas. Storm-water quality also is monitored in accordance with the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System mandated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Albuquerque Metropolitan Arroyo Flood Control Authority, the City of Albuquerque, and the U.S. Geological Survey began a cooperative program to collect hydrologic data to assist in assessing the quality and quantity of surface-water resources in the Albuquerque area. This report presents water-quality, streamflow, and rainfall data collected from October 1, 2003, to September 30, 2004 (water year 2004). Also provided is a station analysis for each of the 18 streamflow-gaging sites and 39 rainfall-gaging sites, which includes a description of monitoring equipment, problems associated with data collection during the year, and other information used to compute streamflow discharges or rainfall records. A hydrographic comparison shows the effects that the largest drainage channel in the metropolitan area, the North Floodway Channel, has on total flow in the Rio Grande.
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Xu, Zuxin; Xiong, Lijun; Li, Huaizheng; Liao, Zhengliang; Yin, Hailong; Wu, Jun; Xu, Jin; Chen, Hao
2017-04-01
For storm drainages inappropriately connected with sewage, wet weather discharge is a major factor that adversely affects receiving waters. A study of the wet weather influences of rainfall-discharge variables on storm drainages connected with sewage was conducted in the downtown Shanghai area (374 ha). Two indicators, event mean concentration (EMC) and event pollutant load per unit area (EPL), were used to describe the pollution discharge during 20 rain events. The study showed that the total rainfall and discharge volume were important factors that affect the EMCs and EPLs of the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and especially those of NH 4 + -N. The pollutant concentrations at the beginning of the discharge and the discharge period were also major factors that influence the EMCs of these three pollutants. Regression relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and discharge volume/ EPLs (R 2 = 0.824-0.981) were stronger than the relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and EMCs. These regression equations can be considered reliable in the system, with a relative validation error of less than ±10% for the discharge volume, and less than ±20% for the EPLs. The results presented in this paper provide guidance for effectively controlling pollution in similar storm drainages.
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Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.
2017-12-01
Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peres, David J.; Cancelliere, Antonino; Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom A.
2018-03-01
Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity-duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical
reporting scenarios
that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors. -
Near doubling of storm rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feng, Zhe
2017-12-01
Large, intense thunderstorms frequently cause flooding and fatalities. Now, research finds that these storms may see a threefold increase in frequency and produce significantly heavier downpours in the future, far exceeding previous estimates.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sarangi, Chandan; Tripathi, S. N.; Qian, Yun; Kumar, Shailendra; Ruby Leung, L.
2018-04-01
Coupling of urban land use land cover (LULC) and aerosol loading on rainfall around cities in the Gangetic Basin (GB) is examined here. Long-term observations illustrate more rainfall at urban core and climatological downwind regions compared to the upwind regions of Kanpur, a metropolitan area located in central GB. In addition, analysis of a 15 day cloud resolving simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model also illustrated similar rainfall pattern around other major cities in the GB. Interestingly, the enhancement of downwind rainfall was greater than that over urban regions, and it was positively associated with both the urban area of the city and ambient aerosol loading during the propagating storm. Further, to gain a process-level understanding, a typical storm that propagated northwestward across Kanpur was simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting under three different scenarios. Case 1 has realistic LULC representation of Kanpur, while the grids representing the Kanpur urban region were replaced by cropland LULC pattern in Case 2. Comparison illustrated that urban heat island effect caused convergence of winds and moisture in the lower troposphere, which enhances convection over urban region and induced more rainfall over the urban core compared to upwind regions. Case 3 is similar to Case 1 but lower aerosol concentration (by a factor of 100) over the storm region. Analysis shows that aerosol-induced microphysical changes delay the initiation of warm rain (over the upwind region) but enhance ice phase particle formation in latter stages (over the urban and downwind regions) resulting in increase in downwind rainfall.
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Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Elliott, John G.
2012-01-01
This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs in El Paso County, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and potential volume of debris flows along the drainage network of the burned area and to estimate the same for 22 selected drainage basins along U.S. Highway 24 and the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (29 millimeters); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (42 millimeters); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (48 millimeters). Estimated debris-flow probabilities at the pour points of the the drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 to 54 percent in response to the 2-year storm; from less than 1 to 74 percent in response to the 10-year storm; and from less than 1 to 82 percent in response to the 25-year storm. Basins and drainage networks with the highest probabilities tended to be those on the southern and southeastern edge of the burn area where soils have relatively high clay contents and gradients are steep. Nine of the 22 drainage basins of interest have greater than a 40-percent probability of producing a debris flow in response to the 10-year storm. Estimated debris-flow volumes for all rainfalls modeled range from a low of 1,500 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages were also predicted to produce substantial volumes of material. The predicted probabilities and some of the volumes predicted for the modeled storms indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow impacts on structures, reservoirs, roads, bridges, and culverts located both within and immediately downstream from the burned area. U.S. Highway 24, on the southern edge of the burn area, is also susceptible to impacts from debris flows.
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Comparing and Linking Post-fire Hillslope Erosion and Channel Change for Different Storm Types
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacDonald, Lee; Kampf, Stephanie; Brogan, Dan; Schmeer, Sarah; Nelson, Peter
2016-04-01
Moderate and high severity wildfires can greatly reduce infiltration rates, leading to orders of magnitude increases in hillslope-scale runoff and erosion rates. These increases can cause dramatic downstream channel change, with post-fire deposition being most common, but this depends on the number, magnitude and timing of storm events. The objective of this study is to compare post-fire hillslope erosion rates and downstream channel change from two distinct rainfall events approximately one year after burning. The first was a set of relatively typical, higher-intensity convective storms in June-August 2013, and the second was a highly unusual, week-long ~270 mm rainstorm in September 2013. The study was conducted in two ~15 km2 watersheds that had two-thirds of their area burned at high or moderate severity by 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Hillslope erosion was measured with sediment fences at 29 sites grouped into five clusters, with each cluster having an associated tipping bucket rain gage. Downstream channel change was monitored at approximately ten cross-sections in each of the two watersheds, Skin Gulch and Hill Gulch. Twelve summer storms produced an overall mean hillslope erosion of 6 Mg ha-1, with higher rainfall intensities at lower elevations and in Skin Gulch causing higher sediment yields. The higher sediment yields in Skin Gulch caused substantial downstream deposition of up to 0.8 m at most cross-sections. Generally lower rainfall in Hill Gulch resulted in less Horton overland flow and hence lower erosion rates and much less downstream deposition. The September storm had roughly twice as much rainfall as the summer thunderstorms, but there were much lower peak rainfall intensities and hillslope-scale sediment yields except where shallow bedrock induced saturation overland flow. The much longer duration of the September storm resulted in sustained high flows, and these flows plus the lower hillslope erosion caused most of the cross-sections to incise rather than aggrade. Maximum mean bed incision was nearly one meter and some cross-sections also exhibited considerable lateral migration, removing much of the aggraded sediment from the previous two summer storm seasons. The results indicate that: 1) sediment yields are best correlated with the amount of precipitation above a given intensity threshold; 2) this threshold tends to increase over time with increasing surface cover; and 3) the standard trajectory of post-fire channel change can be completely altered by extreme storm events.
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IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ariff, N. M.; Jemain, A. A.; Ibrahim, K.; Wan Zin, W. Z.
2012-11-01
SummaryIntensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used in many hydrologic designs for the purpose of water managements and flood preventions. The IDF curves available in Malaysia are those obtained from univariate analysis approach which only considers the intensity of rainfalls at fixed time intervals. As several rainfall variables are correlated with each other such as intensity and duration, this paper aims to derive IDF points for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia by means of bivariate frequency analysis. This is achieved through utilizing the relationship between storm intensities and durations using the copula method. Four types of copulas; namely the Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Frank, Gaussian and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copulas are considered because the correlation between storm intensity, I, and duration, D, are negative and these copulas are appropriate when the relationship between the variables are negative. The correlations are attained by means of Kendall's τ estimation. The analysis was performed on twenty rainfall stations with hourly data across Peninsular Malaysia. Using Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) for testing goodness-of-fit, both Frank and Gaussian copulas are found to be suitable to represent the relationship between I and D. The IDF points found by the copula method are compared to the IDF curves yielded based on the typical IDF empirical formula of the univariate approach. This study indicates that storm intensities obtained from both methods are in agreement with each other for any given storm duration and for various return periods.
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Temporal distribution of rainfall in Virginia : final report.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
1984-01-01
The temporal distribution of Virginia rainstorms was examined by statistically analyzing approximately 1,400 storm events recorded throughout the state. Rainfall time distribution curves were constructed and were compared with several nationally reco...
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Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Fang, Xing; Thompson, David B.
2006-01-01
The design of small runoff-control structures, from simple floodwater-detention basins to sophisticated best-management practices, requires the statistical characterization of rainfall as a basis for cost-effective, risk-mitigated, hydrologic engineering design. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, has developed a framework to estimate storm statistics including storm interevent times, distributions of storm depths, and distributions of storm durations for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The analysis is based on hourly rainfall recorded by the National Weather Service. The database contains more than 155 million hourly values from 774 stations in the study area. Seven sets of maps depicting ranges of mean storm interevent time, mean storm depth, and mean storm duration, by county, as well as tables listing each of those statistics, by county, were developed. The mean storm interevent time is used in probabilistic models to assess the frequency distribution of storms. The Poisson distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm occurrence, and the exponential distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm interevent times. The four-parameter kappa distribution is judged as an appropriate distribution for modeling the distribution of both storm depth and storm duration. Preference for the kappa distribution is based on interpretation of L-moment diagrams. Parameter estimates for the kappa distributions are provided. Separate dimensionless frequency curves for storm depth and duration are defined for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Dimension is restored by multiplying curve ordinates by the mean storm depth or mean storm duration to produce quantile functions of storm depth and duration. Minimum interevent time and location have slight influence on the scale and shape of the dimensionless frequency curves. Ten example problems and solutions to possible applications are provided.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Kean, J. W.; Jones, E. S.; Godt, J.
2015-12-01
Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m. Typical values of saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils and regolith units mapped in the source areas range from about 10-4 - 10-6 m/s, with a median value of 2.8 x 10-5 m/s based on number of source areas in each map unit. Rainfall intensities varied spatially and temporally, from 0 to 2.5 x 10-5 m/s (90 mm/hour), with two periods of relatively heavy rainfall on September 12 - 13. The distribution of debris flows appears to correlate with total storm rainfall, and reported times of greatest landslide activity coincide with times of heaviest rainfall. Process-based models of rainfall infiltration and slope stability (TRIGRS) representing the observed ranges of regolith depth, hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity, provide additional insights about the timing and distribution of debris flows from this storm. For example, small debris flows from shallower source areas (<2 m) occurred late on September 11 and in the early morning of September 12, whereas large debris flows from deeper (3 - 5 m) source areas in the western part of the affected area occurred late on September 12. Timing of these flows can be understood in terms of the time required for pore pressure rise depending on regolith depth and rainfall intensity. The variable hydraulic properties combined with variable regolith depth and slope angles account for much of the observed range in timing in areas of similar rainfall intensity and duration. Modeling indicates that the greatest and most rapid pore pressure rise likely occurred in areas of highest rainfall intensity and amount. This is consistent with the largest numbers of debris flows occurring on steep canyon walls in areas of high total storm rainfall.
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3 CFR 8386 - Proclamation 8386 of May 26, 2009. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2009
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-01-01
... coastal and inland communities. These powerful storms can cause heavy rainfall, high winds, tornadoes, and storm surges, which can in turn bring severe flooding, power outages, damage to homes and businesses... property of those who face advancing storms. Americans can take basic steps before a hurricane arrives. The...
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Moraco, Andrew H; Banauch, Gisela; Kopec, Scott
2015-12-01
Thyroid storm is a rare, life-threatening condition which arises in patients with thyrotoxicosis, with an annual incidence of 2 patients per 1,000,000 and a mortality rate of 11%. We present the case of a 46-year-old-female with a medical history of controlled mild intermittent asthma, who presented with a severe asthma exacerbation, that triggered thyroid storm after exposure to polyurethane fumes. This patient represents, to the best of our knowledge, the first patient in whom the stress related to a severe asthma attack triggered the development of thyroid storm. She also is the first patient with no indication of cardiac dysfunction who developed fatal cardiac arrest after initiation of b-blockade for treatment of thyroid storm. © The Author(s) 2015.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kaitna, R.; Braun, M.
2016-12-01
Steep mountain channels episodically can experience very different geomorphic processes, ranging from flash floods, intensive bedload transport, debris floods, and debris flows. Rainfall-related trigger conditions and geomorphic disposition for each of these processes to occur, as well as conditions leading to one process and not to the other, are not well understood. In this contribution, we analyze triggering rainfalls for all documented events in the Eastern (Austrian) Alps on a daily and sub-daily basis. The analysis with daily rainfall data covers more than 6640 events between 1901 and 2014 and the analysis based on sub-daily (10 min interval) rainfall data includes around 950 events between 1992 and 2014. Of the four investigated event types, we find that debris flows are typically associated with the least cumulative rainfall, while intensive bedload transport as well as torrential floods occur when there is a substantial amount of cumulative rainfall. Debris floods are occurring on average with cumulative rainfall in a range between the aforementioned processes. Comparison of historical data shows, that about 90% of events are triggered with a combination of extreme rainfall and temperature. Bayesian analysis reveals that a high degree of geomorphic events is associated with very short rainfall durations that cannot be resolved with daily rainfall data. A comparison of both datasets shows that subdaily data gives more accurate results. Additionally, we find a high degree of regional differences, e.g. between regions north and south of the Alpine chain or high or low Alpine regions. There is indication that especially debris flows need less total rainfall amount when occurring in regions with a high relief energy than in less steep environments. The limitation of our analysis is mainly due to the distance between the locations of event triggering and rainfall measurement and the definition of rainfall events for the Bayesian analysis. In a next step, we will connect our results with the analyses of the hydrological as well as geomorphological disposition in selected study regions and with projections of changing climate conditions.
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Huizinga, Richard J.
2014-01-01
The rainfall-runoff pairs from the storm-specific GUH analysis were further analyzed against various basin and rainfall characteristics to develop equations to estimate the peak streamflow and flood volume based on a quantity of rainfall on the basin.
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Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.; Ellis, S.R.
1984-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model--Version II was calibrated and verified for five urban basins in the Denver metropolitan area. Land-use types in the basins were light commerical, multifamily housing, single-family housing, and a shopping center. The overall accuracy of model predictions of peak flows and runoff volumes was about 15 percent for storms with rainfall intensities of less than 1 inch per hour and runoff volume of greater than 0.01 inch. Predictions generally were unsatisfactory for storm having a rainfall intensity of more than 1 inch per hour, or runoff of 0.01 inch or less. The Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Quality, a multievent runoff-quality model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was calibrated and verified on four basins. The model was found to be most useful in the prediction of seasonal loads of constituents in the runoff resulting from rainfall. The model was not very accurate in the prediction of runoff loads of individual constituents. (USGS)
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The effects of low impact development on urban flooding under different rainfall characteristics.
Qin, Hua-peng; Li, Zhuo-xi; Fu, Guangtao
2013-11-15
Low impact development (LID) is generally regarded as a more sustainable solution for urban stormwater management than conventional urban drainage systems. However, its effects on urban flooding at a scale of urban drainage systems have not been fully understood particularly when different rainfall characteristics are considered. In this paper, using an urbanizing catchment in China as a case study, the effects of three LID techniques (swale, permeable pavement and green roof) on urban flooding are analyzed and compared with the conventional drainage system design. A range of storm events with different rainfall amounts, durations and locations of peak intensity are considered for holistic assessment of the LID techniques. The effects are measured by the total flood volume reduction during a storm event compared to the conventional drainage system design. The results obtained indicate that all three LID scenarios are more effective in flood reduction during heavier and shorter storm events. Their performance, however, varies significantly according to the location of peak intensity. That is, swales perform best during a storm event with an early peak, permeable pavements perform best with a middle peak, and green roofs perform best with a late peak, respectively. The trends of flood reduction can be explained using a newly proposed water balance method, i.e., by comparing the effective storage depth of the LID designs with the accumulative rainfall amounts at the beginning and end of flooding in the conventional drainage system. This paper provides an insight into the performance of LID designs under different rainfall characteristics, which is essential for effective urban flood management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Design flood estimation in ungauged basins: probabilistic extension of the design-storm concept
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berk, Mario; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel
2016-04-01
Design flood estimation in ungauged basins is an important hydrological task, which is in engineering practice typically solved with the design storm concept. However, neglecting the uncertainty in the hydrological response of the catchment through the assumption of average-recurrence-interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff can lead to flawed design flood estimates. Additionally, selecting a single critical rainfall duration neglects the contribution of other rainfall durations on the probability of extreme flood events. In this study, the design flood problem is approached with concepts from structural reliability that enable a consistent treatment of multiple uncertainties in estimating the design flood. The uncertainty of key model parameters are represented probabilistically and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to compute the flood exceedance probability. As an important by-product, the FORM analysis provides the most likely parameter combination to lead to a flood with a certain exceedance probability; i.e. it enables one to find representative scenarios for e.g., a 100 year or a 1000 year flood. Possible different rainfall durations are incorporated by formulating the event of a given design flood as a series system. The method is directly applicable in practice, since for the description of the rainfall depth-duration characteristics, the same inputs as for the classical design storm methods are needed, which are commonly provided by meteorological services. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Trauchgauer Ach catchment in Bavaria, SCS Curve Number (CN) and Unit hydrograph models are used for modeling the hydrological process. The results indicate, in accordance with past experience, that the traditional design storm concept underestimates design floods.
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The relation of radar to cloud area-time integrals and implications for rain measurements from space
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Atlas, David; Bell, Thomas L.
1992-01-01
The relationships between satellite-based and radar-measured area-time integrals (ATI) for convective storms are determined, and both are shown to depend on the climatological conditional mean rain rate and the ratio of the measured cloud area to the actual rain area of the storms. The GOES precipitation index of Arkin (1986) for convective storms, an area-time integral for satellite cloud areas, is shown to be related to the ATI for radar-observed rain areas. The quality of GPI-based rainfall estimates depends on how well the cloud area is related to the rain area and the size of the sampling domain. It is also noted that the use of a GOES cloud ATI in conjunction with the radar area-time integral will improve the accuracy of rainfall estimates and allow such estimates to be made in much smaller space-time domains than the 1-month and 5-deg boxes anticipated for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.
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Palla, A; Gnecco, I; La Barbera, P
2017-04-15
In the framework of storm water management, Domestic Rainwater Harvesting (DRWH) systems are recently recognized as source control solutions according to LID principles. In order to assess the impact of these systems in storm water runoff control, a simple methodological approach is proposed. The hydrologic-hydraulic modelling is undertaken using EPA SWMM; the DRWH is implemented in the model by using a storage unit linked to the building water supply system and to the drainage network. The proposed methodology has been implemented for a residential urban block located in Genoa (Italy). Continuous simulations are performed by using the high-resolution rainfall data series for the ''do nothing'' and DRWH scenarios. The latter includes the installation of a DRWH system for each building of the urban block. Referring to the test site, the peak and volume reduction rate evaluated for the 2125 rainfall events are respectively equal to 33 and 26 percent, on average (with maximum values of 65 percent for peak and 51 percent for volume). In general, the adopted methodology indicates that the hydrologic performance of the storm water drainage network equipped with DRWH systems is noticeable even for the design storm event (T = 10 years) and the rainfall depth seems to affect the hydrologic performance at least when the total depth exceeds 20 mm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brigandı, G.; Aronica, G. T.; Basile, G.; Pasotti, L.; Panebianco, M.
2012-04-01
On November 2011 a thunderstorms became almost exceptional over the North-East part of the Sicily Region (Italy) producing local heavy rainfall, mud-debris flow and flash flooding. The storm was concentrated on the Tyrrhenian sea coast near the city of Barcellona within the Longano catchment. Main focus of the paper is to present an experimental operative system for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture indexes and quantitative precipitation forecasting. As matter of fact, shallow landslide and flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. It is well known how the triggering of shallow landslides is strongly influenced by the initial soil moisture conditions of catchments. Therefore, the early warning system here applied is based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, derived both for flash flood and for landslide, and soil moisture conditions; the system is composed of several basic component related to antecedent soil moisture conditions, real-time rainfall monitoring and antecedent rainfall. Soil moisture conditions were estimated using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), similar to this widely used for defining soil moisture conditions via Antecedent Moisture conditions index AMC. Rainfall threshold for landslides were derived using historical and statistical analysis. Finally, rainfall thresholds for flash flooding were derived using an Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall. After the implementation and calibration of the model, a testing phase was carried out by using real data collected for the November 2001 event in the Longano catchment. Moreover, in order to test the capability of the system to forecast thise event, Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting provided by the SILAM (Sicily Limited Area Model), a meteorological model run by SIAS (Sicilian Agrometeorological Service) with a forecast horizon up to 144 hours, have been used to run the system.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitetree, A.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Wagner, S.; Guillemette, F.; Lewis, J.; Silva, L.; Stubbins, A.
2017-12-01
Studies on the fate and transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow pathway typically begin in streams or soils, neglecting the initial enrichment of rainfall with DOM during contact with plant canopies. However, rain water can gather significant amounts of tree-derived DOM (tree-DOM) when it drains from the canopy, as throughfall, and down the stem, as stemflow. We examined the temporal variability of event-scale tree-DOM concentrations, yield, and optical (light absorbance and fluorescence) characteristics from an epiphyte-laden Quercus virginiana-Juniperus virginiana forest on Skidaway Island, Savannah, Georgia (USA). All tree-DOM fluxes were highly enriched compared to rainfall and epiphytes further increased concentrations. Stemflow DOC concentrations were greater than throughfall across study species, yet larger throughfall water yields produced greater DOC yields versus stemflow. Tree-DOM optical characteristics indicate it is aromatic-rich with FDOM dominated by humic-like fluorescence, containing 10-20% protein-like (tryptophan-like) fluorescence. Storm size was the only storm condition that strongly correlated with tree-DOM concentration and flux; however, throughfall and stemflow optical characteristics varied little across a wide range of storm conditions (from low magnitude events to intense tropical storms). Annual tree-DOM yields from the study forest (0.8-46 g-C m-2 yr-1) compared well to other yields along the rainfall-to- discharge flow pathway, exceeding DOM yields from some river watersheds.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.
2014-12-01
The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern edge of the Yucatan peninsula were found to be more prone to experiencing wind and flood related hurricane hazards. Novel methodologies developed from this analysis can be adapted for further hurricane risk assessment on archeological sites.
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2013-05-10
tropical depression; yellow, a tropical storm ; red, a typhoon; and purple, an extratropical cyclone (after http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon... storm (JTWC 2012). Tropical Storm Jelawat continued into the Sea of Japan, where it completed extratropical transition (JTWC 2012...including strong winds, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rainfall, threaten archipelagos, densely crowded coastlines, and naval forces ashore and
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Environmental Education: Non-point Source Pollution
This activity is designed to demonstrate to students what an average storm drain collects during a rainfall event and how the water from storm drains can impact the water quality and aquatic environments of local streams, rivers, and bays.
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Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk.
Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D; Ferreira, Celso M; Quiring, Steven M
2016-10-01
In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm brought high winds, storm surge, and flooding to Louisiana, and power outages were widespread and prolonged. Hourly power outage data for the state of Louisiana were collected during the storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly power outage figures by zip code with storm conditions including wind, rainfall, and storm surge using a nonparametric ensemble data mining approach. Results were analyzed to understand how correlation of power outages with storm conditions differed geographically within the state. This analysis provided insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to power outages in hurricanes. By conducting a longitudinal study of outages at the zip code level, we were able to gain insight into the causal drivers of power outages during hurricanes. Our analysis showed that the statistical importance of storm characteristic covariates to power outages varies geographically. For Hurricane Isaac, wind speed, precipitation, and previous outages generally had high importance, whereas storm surge had lower importance, even in zip codes that experienced significant surge. The results of this analysis can inform the development of power outage forecasting models, which often focus strictly on wind-related covariates. Our study of Hurricane Isaac indicates that inclusion of other covariates, particularly precipitation, may improve model accuracy and robustness across a range of storm conditions and geography. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pineda, N.; Rigo, T.; Bech, J.; Argemí, O.
2009-09-01
Thunderstorms can be characterized by both rainfall and lightning. The relationship between convective precipitation and lightning activity may be used as an indicator of the rainfall regime. Besides, a better knowledge of local thunderstorm phenomenology can be very useful to assess weather surveillance tasks. Two types of approach can be distinguished in the bibliography when analyzing the rainfall and lightning activity. On one hand, rain yields (ratio of rain mass to cloud-to-ground flash over a common area) calculated for long temporal and spatial domains and using rain-gauge records to estimate the amounts of precipitation. On the other hand, a case-by-case approach has been used in many studies to analyze the relationship between convective precipitation and lightning in individual storms, using weather radar data to estimate rainfall volumes. Considering a local thunderstorm case study approach, the relation between rainfall and lightning is usually quantified as the Rainfall-Lightning ratio (RLR). This ratio estimates the convective rainfall volume per lightning flash. Intense storms tend to produce lower RLR values than moderate storms, but the range of RLR found in diverse studies is quite wide. This relationship depends on thunderstorm type, local climatology, convective regime, type of lightning flashes considered, oceanic and continental storms, etc. The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between convective precipitation and lightning in a case-by-case approach, by means of daily radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and total lightning data, obtained from observations of the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya remote sensing systems, which covers an area of approximately 50000 km2 in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula. The analyzed dataset is composed by 45 thunderstorm days from April to October 2008. A good daily correlation has been found between the radar QPE and the CG flash counts (best linear fit with a R^2=0.74). The daily RLR found has a mean value of 86 10^3m3 rainfall volume per CG flash. The daily range of variation is quite wide, as it goes from 19 to 222 10^3m3 per CG flash. This variation has a seasonal component, related to changes in the convective regime. Summer days (July to middle September) had a mean RLR of 57 10^3m3 rainfall volume per CG flash, while from middle September to the end of October the rainfall volume per CG flash doubles (mean of 125 10^3m3 per CG flash).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.; Romano, N.
2012-04-01
The Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is a popular rainfall-runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS-CN is a simple and valuable approach to estimate the total stream-flow volume generated by a storm rainfall, but it was developed to be used with daily rainfall data. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as CN4GA (Curve Number for Green-Ampt), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS-CN method so as to provide estimation of sub-daily incremental rainfall excess. For a given storm, the computed SCS-CN total net rainfall amount is used to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the Green-Ampt model. The proposed procedure was evaluated by analyzing 100 rainfall-runoff events observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears an encouraging tool for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, a better agreement with observed hydrographs than that of the classic SCS-CN method.
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A simple stochastic rainstorm generator for simulating spatially and temporally varying rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Singer, M. B.; Michaelides, K.; Nichols, M.; Nearing, M. A.
2016-12-01
In semi-arid to arid drainage basins, rainstorms often control both water supply and flood risk to marginal communities of people. They also govern the availability of water to vegetation and other ecological communities, as well as spatial patterns of sediment, nutrient, and contaminant transport and deposition on local to basin scales. All of these landscape responses are sensitive to changes in climate that are projected to occur throughout western North America. Thus, it is important to improve characterization of rainstorms in a manner that enables statistical assessment of rainfall at spatial scales below that of existing gauging networks and the prediction of plausible manifestations of climate change. Here we present a simple, stochastic rainstorm generator that was created using data from a rich and dense network of rain gauges at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in SE Arizona, but which is applicable anywhere. We describe our methods for assembling pdfs of relevant rainstorm characteristics including total annual rainfall, storm area, storm center location, and storm duration. We also generate five fitted intensity-duration curves and apply a spatial rainfall gradient to generate precipitation at spatial scales below gauge spacing. The model then runs by Monte Carlo simulation in which a total annual rainfall is selected before we generate rainstorms until the annual precipitation total is reached. The procedure continues for decadal simulations. Thus, we keep track of the hydrologic impact of individual storms and the integral of precipitation over multiple decades. We first test the model using ensemble predictions until we reach statistical similarity to the input data from WGEW. We then employ the model to assess decadal precipitation under simulations of climate change in which we separately vary the distribution of total annual rainfall (trend in moisture) and the intensity-duration curves used for simulation (trends in storminess). We demonstrate the model output through spatial maps of rainfall and through statistical comparisons of relevant parameters and distributions. Finally, discuss how the model can be used to understand basin-scale hydrology in terms of soil moisture, runoff, and erosion.
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Time distribution of heavy rainfall events in south west of Iran
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghassabi, Zahra; kamali, G. Ali; Meshkatee, Amir-Hussain; Hajam, Sohrab; Javaheri, Nasrolah
2016-07-01
Accurate knowledge of rainfall time distribution is a fundamental issue in many Meteorological-Hydrological studies such as using the information of the surface runoff in the design of the hydraulic structures, flood control and risk management, and river engineering studies. Since the main largest dams of Iran are in the south-west of the country (i.e. South Zagros), this research investigates the temporal rainfall distribution based on an analytical numerical method to increase the accuracy of hydrological studies in Iran. The United States Soil Conservation Service (SCS) estimated the temporal rainfall distribution in various forms. Hydrology studies usually utilize the same distribution functions in other areas of the world including Iran due to the lack of sufficient observation data. However, we first used Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model to achieve the simulated rainfall results of the selected storms on south west of Iran in this research. Then, a three-parametric Logistic function was fitted to the rainfall data in order to compute the temporal rainfall distribution. The domain of the WRF model is 30.5N-34N and 47.5E-52.5E with a resolution of 0.08 degree in latitude and longitude. We selected 35 heavy storms based on the observed rainfall data set to simulate with the WRF Model. Storm events were scrutinized independently from each other and the best analytical three-parametric logistic function was fitted for each grid point. The results show that the value of the coefficient a of the logistic function, which indicates rainfall intensity, varies from the minimum of 0.14 to the maximum of 0.7. Furthermore, the values of the coefficient B of the logistic function, which indicates rain delay of grid points from start time of rainfall, vary from 1.6 in south-west and east to more than 8 in north and central parts of the studied area. In addition, values of rainfall intensities are lower in south west of IRAN than those of observed or proposed by the SCS values in the US.
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Duncker, James J.; Melching, Charles S.
1998-01-01
Rainfall and streamflow data collected from July 1986 through September 1993 were utilized to calibrate and verify a continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model for three watersheds (11.8--18.0 square miles in area) in Du Page County. Classification of land cover into three categories of pervious (grassland, forest/wetland, and agricultural land) and one category of impervious subareas was sufficient to accurately simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for the three watersheds. Regional parameter sets were obtained by calibrating jointly all parameters except fraction of ground-water inflow that goes to inactive ground water (DEEPFR), interflow recession constant (IRC), and infiltration (INFILT) for runoff from all three watersheds. DEEPFR and IRC varied among the watersheds because of physical differences among the watersheds. Two values of INFILT were obtained: one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty and clayey soils on the uplands and lake plains that characterize Sawmill Creek, St. Joseph Creek, and eastern Du Page County; and one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty soils on uplands that characterize Kress Creek and parts of western Du Page County. Regional rainfall-runoff relations, defined through joint calibration of the rainfall-runoff model and verified for independent periods, presented in this report, allow estimation of runoff for watersheds in Du Page County with an error in the total water balance less than 4.0 percent; an average absolute error in the annual-flow estimates of 17.1 percent with the error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flows; and correlation coefficients and coefficients of model-fit efficiency for monthly flows of at least 87 and 76 percent, respectively. Close reproduction of the runoff-volume duration curves was obtained. A frequency analysis of storm-runoff volume indicates a tendency of the model to undersimulate large storms, which may result from underestimation of the amount of impervious land cover in the watershed and errors in measuring rainfall for convective storms. Overall, the results of regional calibration and verification of the rainfall-runoff model indicate the simulated rainfall-runoff relations are adequate for stormwater-management planning and design for watersheds in Du Page County.
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Multivariate space - time analysis of PRE-STORM precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Polyak, Ilya; North, Gerald R.; Valdes, Juan B.
1994-01-01
This paper presents the methodologies and results of the multivariate modeling and two-dimensional spectral and correlation analysis of PRE-STORM rainfall gauge data. Estimated parameters of the models for the specific spatial averages clearly indicate the eastward and southeastward wave propagation of rainfall fluctuations. A relationship between the coefficients of the diffusion equation and the parameters of the stochastic model of rainfall fluctuations is derived that leads directly to the exclusive use of rainfall data to estimate advection speed (about 12 m/s) as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding fields. The statistical methodology developed here can be used for confirmation of physical models by comparison of the corresponding second-moment statistics of the observed and simulated data, for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problem of the hydrodynamic equations, and for application in some other areas of meteorological and climatological data analysis and modeling.
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Radar characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning producing storms in Florida
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Buechler, D. E.; Goodman, S. J.
1991-01-01
The interrelation between cloud-to-ground lightning, convective rainfall, and the environment in Central Florida storms is examined. The rain flux, storm area, and ground discharge rates are computed within the outlined area. Time-height cross sections of maximum dBZ values at each level for two storms are shown. The multicellular nature of these storms is readily apparent. The cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurs mainly where high reflectivity values (30-40 dBZ) extend above 7 km.
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1991-05-01
schedule for construction, upgrading or operation of wastewater treatment facilities or any other environmental programs, which may effect storm water quality of...if the storm water quality may be similar. c. Two sets of samples are required to be collected: (1) A grab during the first 30 minutes of the rainfall
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sakakibara, Koichi; Tsujimura, Maki; Onda, Yuichi; Iwagami, Sho; Sato, Yutaro; Nagano, Kosuke
2017-04-01
Time variant water age in catchments can fundamentally describe catchment function, controlling rainfall-runoff generation, groundwater flow pathway, and water storage. We observed sulfur hexafluoride concentration in the stream and groundwater with 1 - 2 hours interval during rainstorm events in order to reveal temporal variations of rainfall-runoff water age. Target's spring is perennial in a forested headwater catchment with an area of 0.045 square km, Fukushima, Japan. The observed hydrological data and tracer data of water in the catchment (stable isotopic compositions, inorganic solute concentrations) were used for clarifying rainfall-runoff processes related to water age variances. The storm hydrograph and groundwater table clearly responded to rainfall especially with more than 30 mm per day throughout the monitoring period (May 2015 - October 2016). Large variations of SF6 age in spring ranging from zero to 14 years were found in the short period during rainstorms. In particular, the SF6 age in spring was evidently old when the runoff was over 2 mm per day. At the high runoff condition, the SF6 age in spring positively correlated with discharge rate: the spring age became older as the discharge rate increased. With regard to spatial distributions of SF6 age in groundwater, the old groundwater age (9 - 13 years) in the shallow subsurface area along the valley was confirmed after heavy rainfall. This groundwater age was similar age to the deep groundwater at no-rainfall conditions. In addition, inorganic solute concentrations such as chloride ion, sodium ion, and silica in spring water showed dominant levels in the deep and ridge groundwater. All facts suggest that the old groundwater, stored in the ridge or deeper subsurface area, replaced the shallow groundwater in the vicinity of the spring due to heavy rainfall, then it contributed to the spring discharge. Therefore, rainstorm events play important roles as triggers for discharging older water stored in the catchment, causing dynamic changes of groundwater flow system.
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Staley, Dennis; Kean, Jason W.; Cannon, Susan H.; Schmidt, Kevin M.; Laber, Jayme L.
2012-01-01
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds.
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Crow, W T; Chen, F; Reichle, R H; Liu, Q
2017-06-16
Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i.e., total stream flow divided by total rainfall accumulation in depth units) and pre-storm surface soil moisture estimates from a range of surface soil moisture data products. Results demonstrate that both satellite-based, L-band microwave radiometry and the application of land data assimilation techniques have significantly improved the utility of surface soil moisture data sets for forecasting stream flow response to future rainfall events.
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Crow, W.T.; Chen, F.; Reichle, R.H.; Liu, Q.
2018-01-01
Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i.e., total stream flow divided by total rainfall accumulation in depth units) and pre-storm surface soil moisture estimates from a range of surface soil moisture data products. Results demonstrate that both satellite-based, L-band microwave radiometry and the application of land data assimilation techniques have significantly improved the utility of surface soil moisture data sets for forecasting stream flow response to future rainfall events. PMID:29657342
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Stormwater-runoff data, Madison, Wisconsin, 1993-94
Waschbusch, R.J.
1996-01-01
As required by Section 402(P) of the Water Quality Control Act of 1987, stormwater-runoff samples collected during storms that met three criteria (rainfall depths 50 to 150 percent of average depth range, rainfall durations 50 to 150 percent of average duration, and antecedent dry-weather period of at least 72 hours) were analyzed for semivolatile organic chemicals, total metals, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, inorganic constituents, bacteria, oil and grease, pH, and water temperature. Two of the seven sites also had samples analyzed for volatile organic chemicals. In addition to the required sampling, additional runoff samples that did not necessarily meet the three rainfall criteria, were analyzed for total metals and inorganic constituents. Storm loads of selected constituents were computed.
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Evaluation of nutrient loads from a mountain forest including storm runoff loads.
Kunimatsu, T; Otomori, T; Osaka, K; Hamabata, E; Komai, Y
2006-01-01
Water quality and flow rates at a weir installed on the end of Aburahi-S Experimental Watershed (3.34 ha) were measured once a week from 2001 to 2003 and in appropriate intervals from 30 min to 6 h during five storm runoff events caused by each rainfall from 8 mm to 417 mm. The average annual loads of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were calculated to be 19.0 and 0.339 kg ha(-1) y(-1) from the periodical data by using the integration interval-loads method (ILM), which did not properly account for storm runoff loads. Three types of L(Q) equations (L = aQ(b)) were derived from correlations between loading rates L and flow rates Q obtained from the periodic observation and from storm runoff observation. L(Q) equation method (LQM), which was derived from the storm runoff observation and allowed for the hysteresis of discharge of materials, gave 9.68 and 0.159 kg ha(-1) y(-1), respectively, by substitution of the sequential hourly data of flow rates. L(R) equation (L = c(R - r)d) was derived from the correlations between the loads and the effective rainfall depth (R - r) measured during the storm runoff events, and L(R) equation method (LRM) calculated 9.83 +/- 1.68 and 0.175 +/- 0.0761 kg ha(-1) y(-1), respectively, by using the rainfall data for the past 16 years. The atmospheric input-fluxes of TN and TP were 16.5 and 0.791 kg ha(-1) y(-1).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Ruette, J.; Lehmann, P.; Or, D.
2013-10-01
Rainfall-induced shallow landslides may occur abruptly without distinct precursors and could span a wide range of soil mass released during a triggering event. We present a rainfall-induced landslide-triggering model for steep catchments with surfaces represented as an assembly of hydrologically and mechanically interconnected soil columns. The abruptness of failure was captured by defining local strength thresholds for mechanical bonds linking soil and bedrock and adjacent columns, whereby a failure of a single bond may initiate a chain reaction of subsequent failures, culminating in local mass release (a landslide). The catchment-scale hydromechanical landslide-triggering model (CHLT) was applied to results from two event-based landslide inventories triggered by two rainfall events in 2002 and 2005 in two nearby catchments located in the Prealps in Switzerland. Rainfall radar data, surface elevation and vegetation maps, and a soil production model for soil depth distribution were used for hydromechanical modeling of failure patterns for the two rainfall events at spatial and temporal resolutions of 2.5 m and 0.02 h, respectively. The CHLT model enabled systematic evaluation of the effects of soil type, mechanical reinforcement (soil cohesion and lateral root strength), and initial soil water content on landslide characteristics. We compared various landslide metrics and spatial distribution of simulated landslides in subcatchments with observed inventory data. Model parameters were optimized for the short but intense rainfall event in 2002, and the calibrated model was then applied for the 2005 rainfall, yielding reasonable predictions of landslide events and volumes and statistically reproducing localized landslide patterns similar to inventory data. The model provides a means for identifying local hot spots and offers insights into the dynamics of locally resolved landslide hazards in mountainous regions.
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Rainfall and streamflow from small tree-covered and fern-covered and burned watersheds in Hawaii
H. W. Anderson; P. D. Duffy; Teruo Yamamoto
1966-01-01
Streamflow from two 30-acre watersheds near Honolulu was studied by using principal components regression analysis. Models using data on monthly, storm, and peak discharges were tested against several variables expressing amount and intensity of rainfall, and against variables expressing antecedent rainfall. Explained variation ranged from 78 to 94 percent. The...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.
2014-01-01
Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are strongly modulated by the topography and catchment-specific geomorphologic features that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The three case studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regional hazard warning system.
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Dynamics of runoff from high-intensity, short-duration storms.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
1985-01-01
The effects of several parameters on the behavior of a runoff hydrograph were analyzed. The temporal distribution of rainfall was simulated using three synthetic storm patterns where the temporal location of the maximum burst was modified; the antece...
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NASA Aquarius Detects Possible Effects of Tropical Storm Lee in Gulf
2011-12-07
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall over New Orleans on Sept. 2-3, 2011, with predicted rainfall of 15 to 20 inches 38 to 51 centimeters over southern Louisiana. These charts are from NASA Aquarius spacecraft.
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Characterization of Mediterranean hail-bearing storms using an operational polarimetric X-band radar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vulpiani, G.; Baldini, L.; Roberto, N.
2015-11-01
This work documents the effective use of X-band radar observations for monitoring severe storms in an operational framework. Two severe hail-bearing Mediterranean storms that occurred in 2013 in southern Italy, flooding two important Sicilian cities, are described in terms of their polarimetric radar signatures and retrieved rainfall fields. The X-band dual-polarization radar operating inside the Catania airport (Sicily, Italy), managed by the Italian Department of Civil Protection, is considered here. A suitable processing is applied to X-band radar measurements. The crucial procedural step relies on the differential phase processing, being preparatory for attenuation correction and rainfall estimation. It is based on an iterative approach that uses a very short-length (1 km) moving window, allowing proper capture of the observed high radial gradients of the differential phase. The parameterization of the attenuation correction algorithm, which uses the reconstructed differential phase shift, is derived from electromagnetic simulations based on 3 years of drop size distribution (DSD) observations collected in Rome (Italy). A fuzzy logic hydrometeor classification algorithm was also adopted to support the analysis of the storm characteristics. The precipitation field amounts were reconstructed using a combined polarimetric rainfall algorithm based on reflectivity and specific differential phase. The first storm was observed on 21 February when a winter convective system that originated in the Tyrrhenian Sea, marginally hit the central-eastern coastline of Sicily, causing a flash flood in Catania. Due to an optimal location (the system is located a few kilometers from the city center), it was possible to retrieve the storm characteristics fairly well, including the amount of rainfall field at the ground. Extemporaneous signal extinction, caused by close-range hail core causing significant differential phase shift in a very short-range path, is documented. The second storm, on 21 August 2013, was a summer mesoscale convective system that originated from a Mediterranean low pressure system lasting a few hours that eventually flooded the city of Syracuse. The undergoing physical process, including the storm dynamics, is inferred by analyzing the vertical sections of the polarimetric radar measurements. The high registered amount of precipitation was fairly well reconstructed, although with a trend toward underestimation at increasing distances. Several episodes of signal extinction were clearly manifested during the mature stage of the observed supercells.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leonarduzzi, E.; Molnar, P.; McArdell, B. W.
2017-12-01
In Switzerland floods are responsible for most of the damage caused by rainfall-triggered natural hazards (89%), followed by landslides (6%, almost 600 M USD) as reported in Hilker et al. (2009) for the period 1972-2007. A high-resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset is combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972-2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds that lead to landsliding in Switzerland. First triggering rainfall and landslides are co-located obtaining the distributions of triggering and non-triggering rainfall event properties at the scale of the precipitation data (2*2 km2) and considering 1 day as the interarrival time to separate events. Then rainfall thresholds are obtained by maximizing true positives (accurate predictions) while minimizing false negatives (false alarms), using the True Skill Statistic. The best predictive performance is obtained by the intensity-duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity (Imax) and mean event intensity (Imean). Event duration by itself has very low predictive power. In addition to country-wide thresholds, local ones are also defined by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local long-term climate (mean daily precipitation). Different Imax thresholds are determined for each of the regions separately. It is found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility lead to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, the improvement in model performance due to regionalization is marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high quality landslide database. In order to validate the performance of the Imax rainfall threshold model, reference cases will be presented in which the landslide locations and timing are randomized and the landslide sample size is reduced. Jack-knife and cross-validation experiments demonstrate that the model is robust. The results highlight the potential of using rainfall I-D threshold curves and Imax threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale even with daily precipitation data, with possible applications in landslide warning systems.
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Presley, Todd K.; Jamison, Marcael T.J.; Young, Stacie T.M.
2008-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. The program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream and to assess the effects from the H-1 storm drain on Manoa Stream. For this program, rainfall data were collected at three stations, continuous discharge data at four stations, and water-quality data at six stations, which include the four continuous discharge stations. This report summarizes rainfall, discharge, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2007, and June 30, 2008. A total of 16 environmental samples were collected over two storms during July 1, 2007, to June 30, 2008, within the Halawa Stream drainage area. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, and zinc). Additionally, grab samples were analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Some samples were analyzed for only a partial list of these analytes because an insufficient volume of sample was collected by the automatic samplers. Three additional quality-assurance/quality-control samples were collected concurrently with the storm samples. A total of 16 environmental samples were collected over four storms during July 1, 2007, to June 30, 2008 at the H-1 Storm Drain. All samples at this site were collected using an automatic sampler. Samples generally were analyzed for total suspended solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc), although some samples were analyzed for only a partial list of these analytes. During the storm of January 29, 2008, 10 discrete samples were collected. Varying constituent concentrations were detected for the samples collected at different times during this storm event. Two quality-assurance/quality-control samples were collected concurrently with the storm samples. Three additional quality-assurance/quality-control samples were collected during routine sampler maintenance to check the effectiveness of equipment-cleaning procedures.
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Gaggiani, Neville G.; Lamonds, A.G.
1978-01-01
Located in a closed basin, near Orlands, Fla., Lake Faith, Hope, and Charity cover a combined area of 132 acres and are surrounded by residential, citrus grove and undeveloped areas. All of these areas affect the water quality of the lakes through storm runoff and transport of windborne material. During a study from April 1971 to June 1974, stages of Lakes Faith, Hope, and Charity declined 1.5, 1.4, and 3.0 ft, respectively, because the rainfall was 3.78 in. below average for the area. Inflow to the lakes during this 3-year period was approximately 1,966 acre-ft of which 84 percent was by rainfall and 16 percent was by storm runoff. Rainfall and runoff brought in 82 tons of dissolved solids of which storm runoff carried 51 tons and bulk precipitation carried 32 tons. Dissolved solids concentrations in the lakes were relatively low, averaging 91, 132, and 212 mg/liter for Lakes Faith, Hope, and Charity, respecetively. Major ions, trace elements and nutrients were present in the lakes in relatively low concentrations. Phytoplankton and coliform population showed sharp seasonal fluctuations with the maximum population generally occurring during the warmer months. Blue-green algae predominated in all three lakes. (Woodard-USGS)
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Colucci, Stephen J.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Greco, Steven
1993-01-01
The storm of November 3-5, 1985, in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia and Virginia resulted from a complex sequence of meteorological events. The stage was set by Hurricane Juan, which made landfall in the Gulf Coast on October 31. Juan brought moisture northward up the Mississippi Valley; latent heat released by condensation aloft probably helped to render stationary a high-pressure anticyclone over southeastern Canada. A second low-pressure cyclone, moving north through the Southeastern United States, was blocked by the stationary anticyclone, intensifying a surface-pressure gradient that forced moist air from the Atlantic westward up the slope of the Appalachian Mountains. In the Cheat and Potomac River basins the resulting rainfall was of moderate intensity but of long duration. In Pendleton County, W. Va., the 1985 storm was the largest on record for durations from 24 to 72 h; the highest rainfall recurrence intervals were registered at durations of 24 to 48 h. Estimates of rainfall recurrence intervals from highly skewed records yield values ranging from 80 to 300 yr.
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Applications of Polarimetric Radar to the Hydrometeorology of Urban Floods in St. Louis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chaney, M. M.; Smith, J. A.; Baeck, M. L.
2017-12-01
Predicting and responding to flash flooding requires accurate spatial and temporal representation of rainfall rates. The polarimetric upgrade of all US radars has led to optimism about more accurate rainfall rate estimation from the NEXRAD network of WSR-88D radars in the US. Previous work has proposed different algorithms to do so, but significant uncertainties remain, especially for extreme short-term rainfall rates that control flash floods in urban settings. We will examine the relationship between radar rainfall estimates and gage rainfall rates for a catalog of 30 storms in St. Louis during the period of polarimetric radar measurements, 2012-2016. The storms are selected to provide a large sample of extreme rainfall measurements at the 15-minute to 3-hour time scale. A network of 100 rain gages and a lack of orographic or coastal effects make St. Louis an interesting location to study these relationships. A better understanding of the relationships between polarimetric radar measurements and gage rainfall rates will aid in refining polarimetric radar rainfall algorithms, in turn helping hydrometeorologists predict flash floods and other hazards associated with severe rainfall. Given the fact that St. Louis contains some of the flashiest watersheds in the United States (Smith and Smith, 2015), it is an especially important urban area in which to have accurate, real-time rainfall data. Smith, Brianne K, and James A Smith. "The Flashiest Watersheds in the Contiguous United States." American Meteorological Society (2015): 2365-2381. Web.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ragab, R.; Rosier, P.; Dixon, A.; Bromley, J.; Cooper, J. D.
2003-08-01
Lack of accurate data has led some hydrologists and city planners to assume that urban infiltration is zero and runoff is 100% of the rainfall. These assumptions lead to an over estimation of road runoff volume and an underestimation of direct recharge to groundwater, which is already rising under some UK cities. This study investigates infiltration and runoff processes and quantifies the percentage of rainfall that contributes to storm drainage, and that which infiltrates through different types of road surface. Access tubes were installed for measuring soil water content using a neutron probe in three car parks, a road and a grass site at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford. Storm drainage was recorded at the exit of the Thamesmead Estate in Crowmarsh Gifford, just before the drain joins the River Thames at Wallingford. Rainfall and water table depth were also recorded. Weekly measurements of soil moisture content indicated that the top 40 cm layer is not influenced by water-table fluctuations and, therefore, positive changes in soil moisture could be attributed to infiltration of rainfall through the surface. Depending on the nature of the surface, subsurface layers, level of traffic, etc., between 6 and 9% of rainfall was found to infiltrate through the road surfaces studied. The storm drainage generated by road runoff revealed a flow pattern similar to that of the receiving watercourse (River Thames) and increased with the increase of infiltration and soil water content below the road surface. The ratio of runoff to rainfall was 0·7, 0·9 and 0·5 for annual, winter (October-March) and summer (April-September) respectively. As the results of the infiltration indicated that 6 to 9% of annual rainfall infiltrates through the road surface, this means that evaporation represents, 21-24% of annual rainfall, with more evaporation taking place during summer than winter.
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The storm and flood of September 15, 1989, in Fayetteville, North Carolina
Mason, R.R.; Caldwell, W.S.
1992-01-01
The storm of September 15, 1989, in and around the city of Fayetteville, North Carolina, produced the most extensive flooding of Fayetteville since 1945. The flood inundated 925 acres in the city along Cross Creek and Blounts Creek and their tributaries, flooded 338 buildings, caused damages in excess of $10 million and claimed the lives of 2 small children. Twenty-two roads and five dams were overtopped, and three earthen dams failed. Recorded rainfall and streamflow data indicate that the storm and flood were relatively rare events. Recorded rainfall totals for durations of less than 2 hours were not exceptionally rare or unusual, but rainfall totals for 2-, 3-, and 6-hr durations recorded at a National Weather Service rain gage substantially exceeded 100-yr rainfall amounts by approximately 31, 28, and 12%, respectively. Recorded unit-peak discharges ranged from 33 to 6,060 cu ft/sec/sq mi (the latter downstream from a dam failure). Peak discharges at 6 of 10 stream-gaging sites had recurrence intervals greater than 100 yrs. Flooding of Cross Creek and Blounts Creek upstream of Robeson Street was generally less extensive than the 100-yr flood, as delineated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Downstream of Robeson Street, the flooding was more extensive.
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Thomas H. Epps; Daniel R. Hitchcock; Anand D. Jayakaran; Drake R. Loflin; Thomas M. Williams; Devendra M. Amatya
2013-01-01
Hydrologic monitoring was conducted in two first-order lower coastal plain watersheds in South Carolina, United States, a region with increasing growth and land use change. Storm events over a three-year period were analyzed for direct runoff coefficients (ROC) and the total storm response (TSR) as percent rainfall. ROC calculations utilized an empirical hydrograph...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cánovas-García, Fulgencio; García-Galiano, Sandra; Karbalaee, Negar
2017-10-01
The real time monitoring of storms is important for the management and prevention of flood risks. However, in the southeast of Spain, it seems that the density of the rain gauge network may not be sufficient to adequately characterize the rainfall spatial distribution or the high rainfall intensities that are reached during storms. Satellite precipitation products such as PERSIANN-CCS (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks - Cloud Classification System) could be used to complement the automatic rain gauge networks and so help solve this problem. However, the PERSIANN-CCS product has only recently become available, so its operational validity for areas such as south-eastern Spain is not yet known. In this work, a methodology for the hourly validation of PERSIANN-CCS is presented. We used the rain gauge stations of the SIAM (Sistema de Información Agraria de Murcia) network to study three storms with a very high return period. These storms hit the east and southeast of the Iberian Peninsula and resulted in the loss of human life, major damage to agricultural crops and a strong impact on many different types of infrastructure. The study area is the province of Murcia (Region of Murcia), located in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, covering an area of more than 11,000 km2 and with a population of almost 1.5 million. In order to validate the PERSIANN-CCS product for these three storms, contrasts were made with the hyetographs registered by the automatic rain gauges, analyzing statistics such as bias, mean square difference and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Although in some cases the temporal distribution of rainfall was well captured by PERSIANN-CCS, in several rain gauges high intensities were not properly represented. The differences were strongly correlated with the rain gauge precipitation, but not with satellite-obtained rainfall. The main conclusion concerns the need for specific local calibration for the study area if PERSIANN-CCS is to be used as an operational tool for the monitoring of extreme meteorological phenomena.
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Towards robust optimal design of storm water systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marquez Calvo, Oscar; Solomatine, Dimitri
2015-04-01
In this study the focus is on the design of a storm water or a combined sewer system. Such a system should be capable to handle properly most of the storm to minimize the damages caused by flooding due to the lack of capacity of the system to cope with rain water at peak times. This problem is a multi-objective optimization problem: we have to take into account the minimization of the construction costs, the minimization of damage costs due to flooding, and possibly other criteria. One of the most important factors influencing the design of storm water systems is the expected amount of water to deal with. It is common that this infrastructure is developed with the capacity to cope with events that occur once in, say 10 or 20 years - so-called design rainfall events. However, rainfall is a random variable and such uncertainty typically is not taken explicitly into account in optimization. Rainfall design data is based on historical information of rainfalls, but many times this data is based on unreliable measures; or in not enough historical information; or as we know, the patterns of rainfall are changing regardless of historical information. There are also other sources of uncertainty influencing design, for example, leakages in the pipes and accumulation of sediments in pipes. In the context of storm water or combined sewer systems design or rehabilitation, robust optimization technique should be able to find the best design (or rehabilitation plan) within the available budget but taking into account uncertainty in those variables that were used to design the system. In this work we consider various approaches to robust optimization proposed by various authors (Gabrel, Murat, Thiele 2013; Beyer, Sendhoff 2007) and test a novel method ROPAR (Solomatine 2012) to analyze robustness. References Beyer, H.G., & Sendhoff, B. (2007). Robust optimization - A comprehensive survey. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg., 3190-3218. Gabrel, V.; Murat, C., Thiele, A. (2014). Recent advances in robust optimization: An overview. European Journal of Operational Research. 471-483. Solomatine, D.P. (2012). Robust Optimization and Probabilistic Analysis of Robustness (ROPAR). http://www.unesco-ihe.org/hi/sol/papers/ ROPAR.pdf.
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Hydrological Modeling of Rainfall-Watershed-Bioretention System with EPA SWMM
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
gülbaz, sezar; melek kazezyılmaz-alhan, cevza
2016-04-01
Water resources should be protected for the sustainability of water supply and water quality. Human activities such as high urbanization with lack of infrastructure system and uncontrolled agricultural facilities adversely affect the water resources. Therefore, recent techniques should be investigated in detail to avoid present and future problems like flood, drought and water pollution. Low Impact Development-Best Management Practice (LID-BMP) is such a technique to manage storm water runoff and quality. There are several LID storm water BMPs such as bioretention facilities, rain gardens, storm water wetlands, vegetated rooftops, rain barrels, vegetative swales and permeable pavements. Bioretention is a type of Low Impact Developments (LIDs) implemented to diminish adverse effects of urbanization by reducing peak flows over the surface and improving surface water quality simultaneously. Different soil types in different ratios are considered in bioretention design which affects the performance of bioretention systems. Therefore, in this study, a hydrologic model for bioretention is developed by using Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM). Part of the input data is supplied to the hydrologic model by experimental setup called Rainfall-Watershed-Bioretention (RWB). RWB System is developed to investigate the relation among rainfall, watershed and bioretention. This setup consists of three main parts which are artificial rainfall system, drainage area and four bioretention columns with different soil mixture. EPA SWMM is a dynamic simulation model for the surface runoff which develops on a watershed during a rainfall event. The model is commonly used to plan, analyze, and control storm water runoff, to design drainage system components and to evaluate watershed management of both urban and rural areas. Furthermore, EPA SWMM is a well-known program to model LID-Bioretention in the literature. Therefore, EPA SWMM is employed in drainage and bioretention modeling. Calibration of hydrologic model is made using part of the measured data in RWB System for drainage area and for each bioretention column separately. Finally, performance of the model is evaluated by comparing the model results with the experimental data collected in RWB system.
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Young, Stacie T.M.; Ball, Marcael T.J.
2003-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. This program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream. For this program, rainfall data was collected at two sites, continuous streamflow data at three sites, and water-quality data at five sites, which include the three streamflow sites. This report summarizes rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2002 to June 30, 2003. A total of 28 samples were collected over five storms during July 1, 2002 to June 30, 2003. For two of the five storms, five grab samples and three flow-weighted timecomposite samples were collected. Grab samples were collected nearly simultaneously at all five sites, and flow-weighted timecomposite samples were collected at the three sites equipped with automatic samplers. The other three storms were partially sampled, where only flow-weighted time-composite samples were collected and/or not all stations were sampled. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc). Grab samples were additionally analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Quality-assurance/qualitycontrol samples, collected during storms and during routine maintenance, were also collected to verify analytical procedures and insure proper cleaning of equipment.
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Hydrologic data for urban storm runoff in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado
Gibbs, Johnnie W.; Doefer, John T.
1982-01-01
Urban storm-runoff data collected from April through September 1981 from nine Denver Nationwide Urban Runoff Program sites, urban storm-runoff data collected from April 1980 through September 1981 from ten South Platte River Study sites, and rainfall-runoff simulation data from two sites for June 1980 and May 1981 are presented in this report. The Denver Nationwide Urban Runoff Program sites were two single-family residential areas, two multifamily residential areas, one commercial area (shopping center), one mixed commercial and multifamily residential area, one natural area (open space), and two detention ponds. The South Platte River Study sites were six tributaries of the South Platte River and four instream sites on the South Platte River. The tributary sites were Bear Creek at mouth, at Sheridan; Harvard Gulch at Harvard Park, at Denver; Sanderson Gulch at mouth, at Denver; Weir Gulch at mouth, at Denver; Lakewood Gulch at mouth, at Denver; and Cherry Creek at Denver. The instream sites were South Platte River at Littleton; South Platte River at Florida Avenue, at Denver; South Platte River at Denver; and South Platte River at 50th Avenue, at Denver. The rainfall-runoff simulation sites were North Avenue at Denver Federal Center, at Lakewood and Rooney Gulch at Rooney Ranch, near Morrison. Precipitation, rainfall-runoff, water-quality data, and basin characteristics were collected at the urban storm-runoff sites. The urban storm-runoff data may be used to characterize runoff loading for various land-use types in Denver and other semiarid regions. (USGS)
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Hydrologic data for North Creek, Trinity River basin, Texas, 1975
Kidwell, C.C.
1977-01-01
This report contains the rainfall, runoff, and storage data collected during the 1975 water year for the 21.6-square-mile area above the stream-gaging station North Creek near Jacksboro, Texas. The weighted-mean rainfall in the study area during the water year was 39.01 inches, which is greater than the 18-year average of 30.21 inches for the period 1958-75. Monthly rainfall totals ranged from 1.04 inches in November to 7.94 inches in May. The mean discharge for 1975 at the stream-gaging station was 5.98 cfs, compared with the 14-year (1957-70) average of 5.75 cfs. The annual runoff from the basin above the stream-gaging station was 4,330 acre-feet or 3.76 inches. Three storms were selected for detailed computations for the 1975 water year. The storms occurred on Oct. 30-31, 1974, May 2, 1975 , and Aug. 26, 1975. Rainfall and discharge were computed on the basis of a refined time breakdown. Patterns of the storms are illustrated by hydrographs and mass curves. A summary of rainfall-runoff data is tabulated. There are five floodwater-retarding structures in the study area. These structures have a total capacity of 4,425 acre-feet below flood-spillway crests and regulate streamflow from 16.3 square miles, or 75 percent of the study area. A summary of the physical data at each of the floodwater-retarding structures is included. (Woodard-USGS)
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Presley, Todd K.; Jamison, Marcael T.J.
2010-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. The program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff collected by the H-1 storm drain on the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. This report summarizes rainfall, discharge, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. As part of this program, rainfall and continuous discharge data were collected at the H-1 storm drain. During the year, sampling strategy and sample processing methods were modified to improve the characterization of the effects of discharge from the storm drain on the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. During July 1, 2009, to February 1, 2010, samples were collected from only the H-1 storm drain. Beginning February 2, 2010, samples were collected simultaneously from the H-1 storm drain and the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal at a location about 50 feet upstream of the discharge point of the H-1 storm drain. Three storms were sampled during July 1, 2009, to June 30, 2010. All samples were collected using automatic samplers. For the storm of August 12, 2009, grab samples (for oil and grease, and total petroleum hydrocarbons) and a composite sample were collected. The composite sample was analyzed for total suspended solids, nutrients, and selected dissolved and total (filtered and unfiltered) trace metals (cadmium, chromium, nickel, copper, lead, and zinc). Two storms were sampled in March 2010 at the H-1 storm drain and from the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. Two samples were collected during the storm of March 4, 2010, and six samples were collected during the storm of March 8, 2010. These two storms were sampled using the modified strategy, in which discrete samples from the automatic sampler were processed and analyzed individually, rather than as a composite sample, using the simultaneously collected samples from the H-1 storm drain and from the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. The discrete samples were analyzed for some or all of the following constituents: total suspended solids, nutrients, oil and grease, and selected dissolved (filtered) trace metals (cadmium, chromium, nickel, copper, lead, and zinc). Five quality-assurance/quality-control samples were analyzed during the year. These samples included one laboratory-duplicate, one field-duplicate, and one matrix-spike sample prepared and analyzed with the storm samples. In addition, two inorganic blank-water samples, one sample at the H-1 storm drain and one sample at the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal, were collected by running the blank water (water purified of all inorganic constituents) through the sampling and processing systems after cleaning automatic sampler lines to verify that the sampling lines were not contaminated.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Nengwang; Wu, Yinqi; Chen, Zhuhong; Hong, Huasheng
2015-12-01
Understanding how major storms impact riverine nutrient export to estuaries and the coastal region is crucial in the context of increasing anthropogenic climate and environmental perturbation. In this study, the effects of major storms on river phosphorus (P) were investigated in an agricultural river (SE China), through continuous sampling of dissolved and particulate P during the three largest storm events (A-C) in 2013. There was a major increase in the total P load (3.4-16 fold compared with baseflow). The event mean concentration of storm A was the highest likely due to the first flush effect mobilizing accumulated waste. The flux of DOP and DRP was controlled by discharge as DOP in storm B and DRP in storm C with a relatively simple hysteresis effect with higher fluxes on the rising limb being diluted by rainfall on the falling limb. DOP in storm B remained relatively constant due to delay in DOP flushed from upstream areas balancing dilution by rainfall down stream. DRP in storm C also remained relatively constant caused by successive release of soil DRP to the river from previous unsaturated surface layers. TPP export was greatest towards the early to high stages of the storm events suggesting that most of the eroded sediment and resuspended sediment-bound P are exported during the early stages of the storm. The total flux of P is elevated in watersheds with high levels of human perturbation while climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of major storms. The results of this study are important in predicting the ecosystem response of estuarine and coastal regions to major storms in the riverine catchment area.
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Reconnaissance sediment budget for selected watersheds of West Maui, Hawai‘i
Stock, Jonathan D.; Falinski, Kim A.; Callender, Tova
2016-01-12
Episodic runoff brings suspended sediment to the nearshore waters of West Maui, Hawaiʻi. Even small rainfalls create visible plumes over a few hours. We used mapping, field experiments, and analysis of recent (July 19–20, 2014) and historic rainfall to estimate sources of land-based pollution for two watersheds in West Maui: Honolua, and Honokōwai. Former agricultural fields and some unimproved roads are plausible sources for polluted runoff, but have saturated hydraulic conductivities greater than the 10–15 millimeters per hour (mm/hr) rainfalls of July 2014. These fields and roads showed minor evidence for storm runoff, and could not have contributed substantially to July 2014 plume generation. Since 1978, rain at intensities capable of causing runoff from former agricultural fields sustained for 1–2 hours is also rare; such intensities have 2–5 year recurrence rates in the north, and greater than 25 year recurrence rates to the south near Lahaina. Streambanks now eroding into historic terraces of sands, silts, and clays are a more plausible source. Although past large storms contributed to sediment loading, annual plume generation is now caused by smaller rainfalls eroding these near-stream legacy deposits. Treatments of former agricultural fields, roads, and reserve forests are consequently not likely to measurably affect sediment pollution from smaller, more frequent storms. Increased runoff from the development of West Maui has the potential to exacerbate sediment plumes from such storms unless there is an effective strategy to reduce bank erosion. Uncertainties in the extent and erosion rate of historic terraces, however, limit our ability to plan mitigation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Stan, John T.; Wagner, Sasha; Guillemette, François; Whitetree, Ansley; Lewis, Julius; Silva, Leticia; Stubbins, Aron
2017-11-01
Studies on the fate and transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow pathway typically begin in streams or soils, neglecting the initial enrichment of rainfall with DOM during contact with plant canopies. However, rain water can gather significant amounts of tree-derived DOM (tree-DOM) when it drains from the canopy, as throughfall, and down the stem, as stemflow. We examined the temporal variability of event-scale tree-DOM concentrations, yield, and optical (light absorbance and fluorescence) characteristics from an epiphyte-laden Quercus virginiana-Juniperus virginiana forest on Skidaway Island, Savannah, Georgia (USA). All tree-DOM fluxes were highly enriched in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compared to rainfall, and epiphytes further increased concentrations. Stemflow DOC concentrations were greater than throughfall across study species, yet larger throughfall water yields produced greater DOC yields versus stemflow. Tree-DOM optical characteristics indicate it is aromatic-rich with fluorescent DOM dominated by humic-like fluorescence, containing 10-20% protein-like (tryptophan-like) fluorescence. Storm size was the only storm condition that strongly correlated with tree-DOM concentration and flux; however, throughfall and stemflow optical characteristics varied little across a wide range of storm conditions (from low magnitude events to intense tropical storms). Annual tree-DOM yields from the study forest (0.8-46 g C m-2 yr-1) were similar to other yields from discrete down-gradient fluxes (litter leachates, soil leachates, and stream discharge) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow path.
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Hydrologic system state at debris flow initiation in the Pitztal catchment, Austria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mostbauer, Karin; Hrachowitz, Markus; Prenner, David; Kaitna, Roland
2017-04-01
Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions. Though significant effort has been made to forecast such events, the trigger conditions as well as the hydrologic disposition of a watershed at the time of debris flow occurrence are not well understood. To improve our knowledge on the connection between debris flow initiation and the hydrologic system, this study applies a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, linking different system state variables such as soil moisture, snowmelt, or runoff with documented debris flow events in the Pitztal watershed, western Austria. The hydrologic modelling was performed on a daily basis between 1953 and 2012. High-intensity rainfall could be identified as the dominant trigger (31 out of 43 debris flows), while triggering exclusively by low-intensity, long-lasting rainfall was only observed in one single case. The remaining events were related to snowmelt; whether all of these events where triggered by rain-on-snow, or whether some of these events were actually triggered by snowmelt only, remains unclear since the occurrence of un- resp. underrecorded rainfall was detected frequently. The usage of a conceptual hydrological model for investigating debris flow initiation constitutes a novel approach in debris flow research and was assessed as very valuable. For future studies, it is recommended to evaluate also sub-daily information. As antecedent snowmelt was found to be much more important to debris flow initiation than antecedent rainfall, it might prove beneficial to include snowmelt in the commonly used rainfall intensity-duration thresholds.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boje, Søren; Devoli, Graziella; Sund, Monica; Freeborough, Katy; Dijkstra, Tom; Reeves, Helen; Banks, Vanessa
2016-04-01
The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and the British Geological Survey (BGS) compile daily landslide hazard assessments (DLHA) in their respective countries. NVE DLHA has been operational since 2013 and provides national daily assessments based on quantitative thresholds related to daily hydro-meteorological forecasts coupled with qualitative expert analysis of these forecasts. The BGS DLHA has been operational since 2012 and this is predominantly based on expert evaluation of antecedent hydro-meteorological conditions and triggering rainfall across Great Britain (GB). In both cases, the hydro-meteorological evaluation is coupled with observations derived from proprietary datasets on landslide events and landslide potential in order to specify, and limit, the spatial extent of the potentially impacted area. However, the DLHA are strongly driven by hydro-meteorological forecasts. In December 2015, a large extra-tropical cyclone developed over the Atlantic and delivered record-breaking precipitation over parts of the UK and Norway. The meteorological services started naming these events to enhance public uptake and awareness and the storms were named as Desmond (the 4th large storm in 2015/16 in the UK) and Synne (the 5th storm in 2015 in Norway). Desmond arrived in earnest on the 5th of December and brought intense precipitation and strong winds over a 48-hour period. In Cumbria (NW-England) record precipitation was measured (341.4 mm in 24-hour at Honister Pass which is more than twice the monthly average), with 48-hour accumulations exceeding 400 mm. Synne arrived shortly after in Norway and was also characterised by excessive rainfall of 140 mm in 24-hour, 236 mm in 48-hour and 299 mm in 72-hour at Maudal, SW-Norway. Both organisations managed to issue appropriate advance warnings, operating individually. In Norway, warnings were issued some 2 days in advance with a yellow level communicated on Friday 4th and an orange warning the 5th and 6th December. Synne triggered at least 23 landslides, 5 slush flows and 8 snow avalanches. The storm caused also significant floods in the southern sector of the west coast of Norway. In the UK, the DLHA warning level was elevated to yellow on Friday 4th and maintained the following days. Desmond resulted circa 25 landslides that were reported in the media. In both countries, many events were recorded close to transport infrastructure, but the actual number of events is much greater than reported during the storm. The severe consequences of extensive, simultaneous flooding provided a focus for most media reports. Following the events a picture emerged of the wider landscape response through anecdotal photographic evidence and social media. Data gathering therefore continues to date. Even though the issuing of landslide warnings has seen a high rate of success, there are important lessons to be learned regarding the magnitude of landscape response to particular events. This study shows how extreme events can strike several countries at approximately the same time raising landslide forecasting beyond the local environment. Significant gains can be made through inter-agency, international collaboration in order to improve the quality of daily landslide hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.
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Hydrologic data for urban storm runoff from nine sites in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado
Gibbs, Johnnie W.
1981-01-01
Urban storm-runoff data were collected April through September 1980, from nine urbanrunoff sites in the Denver metropolitan area, and are presented in this report. The sites consist of two single-family residential areas, two multi-family residential areas, one commercial area (shopping center), one mixed commercial and multi-family residential area, one native area (open space), and two detention ponds. Precipitation, rainfall-runoff, water-quality (common constituents, nutrients, coliform bacteria, solids, and trace elements) and basin-area data are necessary to use the U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model, Version II. The urban storm-runoff data may be used to characterize runoff pollution loading for various land-use types in Denver and other semi-arid regions. (USGS)
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Calibration of a distributed routing rainfall-runoff model at four urban sites near Miami, Florida
Doyle, W. Harry; Miller, Jeffrey E.
1980-01-01
Urban stormwater data from four Miami, Fla. catchments were collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey and were used for testing the applicability of deterministic modeling for characterizing stormwater flows from small land-use areas. A description of model calibration and verification is presented for: (1) A 40.8 acre single-family residential area, (2) a 58.3-acre highway area, (3) a 20.4-acre commercial area, and (4) a 14.7-acre multifamily residential area. Rainfall-runoff data for 80, 108, 114, and 52 storms at sites, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, were collected, analyzed, and stored on direct-access files. Rainfall and runoff data for these storms (at 1-minute time intervals) were used in flow-modeling simulation analyses. A distributed routing Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model was used to determine rainfall excess and route overland and channel flows at each site. Optimization of soil-moisture- accounting and infiltration parameters was performed during the calibration phases. The results of this study showed that, with qualifications, an acceptable verification of the Geological Survey model can be achieved. (Kosco-USGS)
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Atmospheric electricity/meteorology analysis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, Richard; Buechler, Dennis
1993-01-01
This activity focuses on Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)/Lightning Mapper Sensor (LMS) algorithm development and applied research. Specifically we are exploring the relationships between (1) global and regional lightning activity and rainfall, and (2) storm electrical development, physics, and the role of the environment. U.S. composite radar-rainfall maps and ground strike lightning maps are used to understand lightning-rainfall relationships at the regional scale. These observations are then compared to SSM/I brightness temperatures to simulate LIS/TRMM multi-sensor algorithm data sets. These data sets are supplied to the WETNET project archive. WSR88-D (NEXRAD) data are also used as it becomes available. The results of this study allow us to examine the information content from lightning imaging sensors in low-earth and geostationary orbits. Analysis of tropical and U.S. data sets continues. A neural network/sensor fusion algorithm is being refined for objectively associating lightning and rainfall with their parent storm systems. Total lightning data from interferometers are being used in conjunction with data from the national lightning network. A 6-year lightning/rainfall climatology has been assembled for LIS sampling studies.
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Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California
Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,
1993-01-01
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.
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On the Nature of Severe Orographic Thunderstorms near the Andes in Subtropical South America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rasmussen, Kristen Lani Emi
Identifying common features and differences between the mechanisms producing extreme convection near major mountain ranges of the world is an essential step toward a general understanding of orographic precipitation on a global scale. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to understand and examine orographic convective processes in general, while specifically focusing on systems in the lee of the Andes Mountains. Diagnosing the key ingredients necessary for generating high impact weather near extreme topography is crucial to our understanding of orographic precipitating systems. An investigation of the most intense storms in 11 years of TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) data has shown a tendency for squall lines to initiate and develop east of the Andes with a mesoscale organization similar to storms in the U.S. Great Plains (Rasmussen and Houze 2011). In subtropical South America, however, the topographical influence on the convective initiation and maintenance of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is unique. The Andes and other mountainous terrain of Argentina focus deep convective initiation in the foothills of western Argentina (Romatschke and Houze 2010; Rasmussen and Houze 2011). Subsequent to initiation, the convection often evolves into propagating MCSs similar to those seen over the U.S. Great Plains sometimes producing damaging tornadoes, hail and floods across a wide agricultural region (Rasmussen and Houze 2011; Rasmussen et al. 2014b). The TRMM satellite was designed to determine the spatial and temporal variation of tropical and subtropical rainfall amounts and storm structures around the globe with the goal of understanding the factors controlling the precipitation. However, the TRMM PR algorithm significantly underestimates surface rainfall in deep convection over land (Nesbitt et al. 2004; Iguchi et al. 2009; Kozu et al. 2009). When the algorithm rates are compared to a range of conventional Z-R relations, the rain bias tends to be worse in storms with significant mixed phase hydrometeors, such as graupel and hail, that are similarly affected by assumptions in the TRMM PR algorithm (Rasmussen et al. 2013). A quantitative approach that mitigates this bias using TRMM PR data was developed and employed to investigate the role of the most extreme precipitating systems on the hydrological cycle in South America (Rasmussen et al. 2014c). Results from this study indicate that ~95% of the accumulated warm season precipitation in La Plata Basin in subtropical South America is contributed by echoes structurally related to MCSs and their life cycle. From a hydrologic and climatological viewpoint, this empirical knowledge is critical, as the type of runoff and flooding that may occur depends on the specific character of the convective storm and precipitation reaching the surface, and has broad implications for the hydrological cycle in this region. Numerical simulations conducted with the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model extends the observational analysis and provides an objective dynamical evaluation of storm initiation, development mechanisms, dynamics (Rasmussen and Houze 2014), and microphysics (Rasmussen et al. 2014d). The capping inversion in the lee of the Andes (Rasmussen and Houze 2011) is important in preventing premature triggering in the simulations. The impingement of the South American Low Level Jet on foothills and low mountains to the east of the main Andes range triggers extremely deep and intense convection. The simulated mesoscale systems closely resemble the storm structures seen by the TRMM satellite as well as the overall shape and character of the storms shown in GOES satellite data (Rasmussen and Houze 2014; Rasmussen et al. 2014d). Sensitivity studies removing and/or reducing various topographic features have shown the profound influence of the terrain on the initiation and upscale growth of the subsequent MCSs. The extreme vertical extent of the Andes tends to keep the South American storms tied to the topography during upscale organization and development longer than similar storms east of the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. and is related to enhanced lee cyclogenesis, flow deformation, and wake effects (Rasmussen and Houze 2014). From this research, an original conceptual model for convective storm environments leading to convective initiation was developed for subtropical South America.
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Rain observations in tropical storm Cora
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilheit, T. T.; Chang, A. T. C.; King, J. L.; Rodgers, E. B.; Nieman, R. A.; Krupp, B. M.; Siddalingaiah, H.; Diesen, B. C.; Stratigos, J.
1979-01-01
Passive microwave observations were made in tropical storm Cora at 19.35 and 94GHz. These observations suggest that 94GHz is appropriate for mapping the extent of rain over either land or ocean backgrounds and that some rainfall intensity measurement is also possible.
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Storm Water Management Model Applications Manual
The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model that computes runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. This manual is a practical application guide for new SWMM users who have already had some previous training in hydrolog...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bell, T. L.; Rosenfeld, D.; Kim, K.; Hahnenberger, M.
2006-05-01
Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue--Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura
2006-01-01
Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.
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Jones, Perry M.; Winterstein, Thomas A.
2000-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and the Heron Lake Watershed District, conducted a study to characterize the rainfall-runoff response and to examine the effects of wetland restoration on the rainfall-runoff response within the Heron Lake Basin in southwestern Minnesota. About 93 percent of the land cover in the Heron Lake Basin consists of agricultural lands, consisting almost entirely of row crops, with less than one percent consisting of wetlands. The Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF), Version 10, was calibrated to continuous discharge data and used to characterize rainfall-runoff responses in the Heron Lake Basin between May 1991 and August 1997. Simulation of the Heron Lake Basin was done as a two-step process: (1) simulations of five small subbasins using data from August 1995 through August 1997, and (2) simulations of the two large basins, Jack and Okabena Creek Basins, using data from May 1991 through September 1996. Simulations of the five small subbasins was done to determine basin parameters for the land segments and assess rainfall-runoff response variability in the basin. Simulations of the two larger basins were done to verify the basin parameters and assess rainfall-runoff responses over a larger area and for a longer time period. Best-fit calibrations of the five subbasin simulations indicate that the rainfall-runoff response is uniform throughout the Heron Lake Basin, and 48 percent of the total rainfall for storms becomes direct (surface and interflow) runoff. Rainfall-runoff response variations result from variations in the distribution, intensity, timing, and duration of rainfall; soil moisture; evapotranspiration rates; and the presence of lakes in the basin. In the spring, the amount and distribution of rainfall tends to govern the runoff response. High evapotranspiration rates in the summer result in a depletion of moisture from the soils, substantially affecting the rainfall-runoff relation. Five wetland restoration simulations were run for each of five subbasins using data from August 1995 through August 1997, and for the two larger basins, Jack and Okabena Creek Basins, using data from May 1991 through September 1996. Results from linear regression analysis of total simulated direct runoff and total rainfall data for simulated storms in the wetland-restoration simulations indicate that the portion of total rainfall that becomes runoff will be reduced by 46 percent if 45 percent of current cropland is converted to wetland. The addition of wetlands reduced peak runoff in most of the simulations, but the reduction varied with antecedent soil moisture, the magnitude of the peak flow, and the presence of current wetlands and lakes. Reductions in the simulated total and peak runoff from the Jack Creek Basin for most of the simulated storms were greatest when additional wetlands were simulated in the North Branch Jack Creek or the Upper Jack Creek Subbasins. In the Okabena Creek Basin, reductions in simulated peak runoff for most of the storms were greatest when additional wetlands were simulated in the Lower Okabena Creek Subbasin.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allemand, P.; Lajeunesse, E.; Devauchelle, O.; Delacourt, C.
2012-04-01
he volume of sediment exported from a tropical watershed is dramatically increased during extreme climatic events, such as storms and tropical cyclones (Dadson et al. 2004; Hilton et al. 2008). Indeed, the exceptionally high rainfall rates reached during these events generate runoff and trigger landslides which accumulate a significant amount of sediments in flooded rivers (Gabet et al., 2004; Lin et al., 2008). We estimate the volume of sediments mobilized by the storm Helena (26 to 28 October 1963) on Basse-Terre Island in the archipelago of Guadeloupe. This is achieved using images acquired by IGN (Institut Géographique National) a few weeks after the storm which produced numerous landslides. All the available images from this campaign have been pseudo-orthorectified and included in a GIS with a Digital Elevation Model with a resolution of 10 m. Two hundred fifty three landslides have been identified and mapped. Most of them are located in the center of the island, where the highest slopes are. The cumulated surface of the landslides is 0.5 km2. Field observations on Basse-Terre show that landslides mobilized the whole regolith layer, which is about 1m thick. Assuming an average landslide thickness of 1m, we find that the total volume of sediment mobilized by the storm Helena is 0.5 km3. The associated denudation averaged over all watersheds affected by landslides is 1.4 mm with a maximum of 5 mm for the watersheds of Vieux-Habitants and Capesterre. The impact of the storm Helena is then discussed with respect to 1) the erosion induced on the Capesterre catchment by the highest flood available in a two years survey record (less than 0.1 mm/y); 2) the long term denudation rate of the major watersheds of Basse-Terre estimated by reconstructing the initial volcanic topography (between 0.1 and 0.4 mm/y).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schilirò, L.; Esposito, C.; Scarascia Mugnozza, G.
2015-09-01
Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are a widespread phenomenon that frequently causes substantial damage to property, as well as numerous casualties. In recent~years a wide range of physically based models have been developed to analyze the triggering process of these events. Specifically, in this paper we propose an approach for the evaluation of different shallow landslide-triggering scenarios by means of the TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based slope stability) numerical model. For the validation of the model, a back analysis of the landslide event that occurred in the study area (located SW of Messina, northeastern Sicily, Italy) on 1 October 2009 was performed, by using different methods and techniques for the definition of the input parameters. After evaluating the reliability of the model through comparison with the 2009 landslide inventory, different triggering scenarios were defined using rainfall values derived from the rainfall probability curves, reconstructed on the basis of daily and hourly historical rainfall data. The results emphasize how these phenomena are likely to occur in the area, given that even short-duration (1-3 h) rainfall events with a relatively low return period (e.g., 10-20~years) can trigger numerous slope failures. Furthermore, for the same rainfall amount, the daily simulations underestimate the instability conditions. The high susceptibility of this area to shallow landslides is testified by the high number of landslide/flood events that have occurred in the past and are summarized in this paper by means of archival research. Considering the main features of the proposed approach, the authors suggest that this methodology could be applied to different areas, even for the development of landslide early warning systems.
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Sensitivity of Catchment Transit Times to Rainfall Variability Under Present and Future Climates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilusz, Daniel C.; Harman, Ciaran J.; Ball, William P.
2017-12-01
Hydrologists have a relatively good understanding of how rainfall variability shapes the catchment hydrograph, a reflection of the celerity of hydraulic head propagation. Much less is known about the influence of rainfall variability on catchment transit times, a reflection of water velocities that control solute transport. This work uses catchment-scale lumped parameter models to decompose the relationship between rainfall variability and an important metric of transit times, the time-varying fraction of young water (<90 days old) in streams (FYW). A coupled rainfall-runoff model and rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) transit time model were calibrated to extensive hydrometric and environmental tracer data from neighboring headwater catchments in Plynlimon, Wales from 1999 to 2008. At both sites, the mean annual FYW increased more than 13 percentage points from the driest to the wettest year. Yearly mean rainfall explained most between-year variation, but certain signatures of rainfall pattern were also associated with higher FYW including: more clustered storms, more negatively skewed storms, and higher covariance between daily rainfall and discharge. We show that these signatures are symptomatic of an "inverse storage effect" that may be common among watersheds. Looking to the future, changes in rainfall due to projected climate change caused an up to 19 percentage point increase in simulated mean winter FYW and similarly large decreases in the mean summer FYW. Thus, climate change could seasonally alter the ages of water in streams at these sites, with concomitant impacts on water quality.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2002-01-01
Tropical storm Keith was born on Sept. 29 in the Caribbean, off the east coast of Honduras, and reached hurricane Category 3 intensity (winds in excess of 111 miles per hour) on Oct. 1. Hurricane Keith made landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and northeastern Belize on Oct. 2, packing winds as high as 135 miles per hour and a storm surge of up to 6 feet above normal tide levels. Although the storm quickly weakened in intensity to a tropical storm (65 miles per hour), it moved slowly inland and dumped large amounts of rain on the region--exceeding 15 inches in some areas within a 24-hour period. Authorities in the area are warning residents of the potential for flooding and mudslides. NASA and NOAA satellites captured images of Hurricane Keith on Oct. 2 shortly after it made landfall. The image on the left is a combination of NOAA GOES and NASA QuikScat data superimposed. The white cloud structure was produced using GOES data, while the colored arrows showing wind speed and direction were created using QuikScat data. Red and purple arrows show winds as high as 25 meters per second (56 miles per hour). (Note that QuikScat only measures winds over the ocean; units are given in meters per second.) The image on the right was created using data from the Microwave Imager (TMI) aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). That sensor has the ability to peer within a storm and detect rainfall, seen here as red and green blobs. The red blobs show higher rainfall rates (up to 2 inches per hour), and greens show lower rainfall rates (1 inch per hour). Scientists are using data from these sensors to study how hurricane form, and grow and diminish in intensity during their lifetimes. For more information, see Hurricanes: The Greatest Storms on Earth. QuikScat image by William Daffer, courtesy of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory TRMM image by Tom Bridgman, Goddard SVS; data courtesy TRMM Science Team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
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Not Out of Control: Analysis of the Federal Disaster Spending Trend
2016-03-01
included heavy rain, excessive rainfall, tropical storms, hurricanes, flooding, coastal flooding, wind, straight line winds, high winds, tornadoes ...straight line winds, tornadoes , high winds, coastal flooding, soil saturation, and mud flow.174 Despite the high number of severe storm declarations over
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STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL USER'S MANUAL VERSION 5.0
The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major upgrade...
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2015-03-31
ISS043E078143 (03/31/2015) --- Astronauts on board the International Space Station captured this image on Mar. 31, 2015 of the category 5 super Typhoon Maysak which is headed toward the Philippines. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites, both co-managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, captured rainfall and cloud data that revealed heavy rainfall and high thunderstorms in the strengthening storm.
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Seasonal rainfall-runoff relationships in a lowland forested watershed in the southeastern USA
Ileana La Torre Torres; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun; Timothy Callahan
2011-01-01
Hydrological processes of lowland watersheds of the southern USA are not well understood compared to a hilly landscape due to their unique topography, soil compositions, and climate. This study describes the seasonal relationships between rainfall patterns and runoff (sum of storm flow and base flow) using 13 years (1964â1976) of rainfall and stream flow data for a low...
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Tamara Heartsill Scalley; F.N. Scatena; C. Estrada Ruiz; W.H. McDowell; Ariel Lugo
2007-01-01
Nutrient fluxes in rainfall and throughfall were measured weekly in a mature subtropical wet forest in NE Puerto Rico over a 15-year period that included the effects of 10 named tropical storms, several prolonged dry periods, and volcanic activity in the region. Mean annual rainfall and throughfall were 3482 and 2131 mm yr
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Role of equatorial waves in tropical cyclogenesis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schreck, Carl J., III
Tropical cyclones typically form within preexisting wavelike disturbances that couple with convection. Using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multisatellite rainfall estimates, this study determines the relative number of tropical cyclones that can be attributed to various wave types, including the Madden--Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, mixed Rossby--gravity (MRG) waves, and tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave's convection when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. More storms are attributed to TD-type disturbances than to any other wave type in all of the Northern Hemisphere basins. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, ER waves and TD-type disturbances are equally important as precursors. Fewer storms are attributed to MRG waves, Kelvin waves, and the MJO in every basin. Although relatively few storms are attributed to the MJO, tropical cyclogenesis is 2.6 times more likely in its convective phase compared with its suppressed phase. This modulation arises in part because each equatorial wave type is amplified within MJO's convective phase. The amplification significantly increases the probability that these waves will act as tropical cyclone precursors. A case study from June 2002 illustrates the effects of a series of Kelvin waves on two tropical cyclone formations. These waves were embedded in the convective phase of the MJO. Together, the MJO and the Kelvin waves preconditioned the low-level environment for cyclogenesis. The first Kelvin wave weakened the trade easterlies, while the subsequent waves created monsoon westerlies near the equator. These westerlies provided the background cyclonic vorticity within which both storms developed. The effects of tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies are also investigated. In the wavenumber--frequency spectrum for rainfall, tropical cyclones can inflate the power for shorter wavelength westward propagating waves by up to 27%. This spectrum contains signals from all longitudes, but the greatest contamination occurs in regions like the Philippines where tropical cyclones are most frequent. Here, tropical cyclones contribute more than 40% of the rainfall variance in each filter band. To mitigate these effects, tropical cyclone-related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.
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Pike, R.J.; Sobieszczyk, S.
2008-01-01
GIS analysis at 30-m resolution reveals that effectiveness of slope-destabilizing processes in the San Francisco Bay area varies with compass direction. Nearly half the soil slip/debris flows mapped after the catastrophic rainstorm of 3-5 January 1982 occurred on slopes that face S to WSW, whereas fewer than one-quarter have a northerly aspect. Azimuthal analysis of hillside properties for susceptible terrain near the city of Oakland suggests that the skewed aspect of these landslides primarily reflects vegetation type, ridge and valley alignment, and storm-wind direction. Bedrock geology, soil expansivity, and terrain height and gradient also were influential but less so; the role of surface curvature is not wholly resolved. Normalising soil-slip aspect by that of the region's NNW-striking topography shifts the modal azimuth of soil-slip aspect from SW to SE, the direction of origin of winds during the 1982 storm-but opposite that of the prevailing WNW winds. Wind from a constant direction increases rainfall on windward slopes while diminishing it on leeward slopes, generating a modelled difference in hydrologically effective rainfall of up to 2:1 on steep hillsides in the Oakland area. This contrast is consistent with numerical simulations of wind-driven rain and with rainfall thresholds for debris-flow activity. We conclude that storm winds from the SE in January 1982 raised the vulnerability of the Bay region's many S-facing hillsides, most of which are covered in shallow-rooted shrub and grass that offer minimal resistance to soil slip. Wind-driven rainfall also appears to have controlled debris-flow location in a major 1998 storm and probably others. Incorporating this overlooked influence into GIS models of debris-flow likelihood would improve predictions of the hazard in central California and elsewhere.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Latorre Torres, I. B.; Amatya, D. M.; Callahan, T. J.; Levine, N. S.
2007-12-01
Hydrology research in the Southeast U.S. has primarily focused on upland mountainous areas; however, much less is known about hydrological processes in Lower Coastal Plain (LCP) watersheds. Such watersheds are difficult to characterize due to shallow water table conditions, low topographic gradient, complex surface- subsurface water interaction, and lack of detailed soil information. Although opportunities to conduct long term monitoring in relatively undeveloped watersheds are often limited, stream flow and rainfall in the Turkey Creek watershed (third-order watershed, about 7200 ha in the Francis Marion National Forest near Charleston, SC) have been monitored since 1964. In this study, event runoff-rainfall ratios have been determined for 51 storm events using historical data from 1964-1973. One of our objectives was to characterize relationships between seasonal event rainfall and storm outflow in this watershed. To this end, observed storm event data were compared with values predicted by established hydrological methods such as the Soil Conservation Service runoff curve number (SCS-CN) and the rational method integrated within a Geographical Information System (GIS), to estimate total event runoff and peak discharge, respectively. Available 1:15000 scale aerial images were digitized to obtain land uses, which were used with the SCS soil hydrologic groups to obtain the runoff coefficients (C) for the rational method and the CN values for the SCS-CN method. These methods are being tested with historical storm event responses in the Turkey Creek watershed scale, and then will be used to predict event runoff in Quinby Creek, an ungauged third-order watershed (8700 ha) adjacent to Turkey Creek. Successful testing with refinement of parameters in the rational method and SCS-CN method, both designed for small urban and agricultural dominated watersheds, may allow widespread application of these methods for studying the event rainfall-runoff dynamics for similar watersheds in the Lower Coastal Plain of the Southeast U.S.
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Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes
Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.
2016-01-01
Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm. PMID:27545899
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Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes.
Lin, Y-C; Oey, L-Y
2016-08-22
Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.
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Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.
2016-08-01
Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.
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Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, Y.; Oey, L. Y.
2016-12-01
Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Turner, B. J.; Austin, G. L.
1993-01-01
Three-dimensional radar data for three summer Florida storms are used as input to a microwave radiative transfer model. The model simulates microwave brightness observations by a 19-GHz, nadir-pointing, satellite-borne microwave radiometer. The statistical distribution of rainfall rates for the storms studied, and therefore the optimal conversion between microwave brightness temperatures and rainfall rates, was found to be highly sensitive to the spatial resolution at which observations were made. The optimum relation between the two quantities was less sensitive to the details of the vertical profile of precipitation. Rainfall retrievals were made for a range of microwave sensor footprint sizes. From these simulations, spatial sampling-error estimates were made for microwave radiometers over a range of field-of-view sizes. The necessity of matching the spatial resolution of ground truth to radiometer footprint size is emphasized. A strategy for the combined use of raingages, ground-based radar, microwave, and visible-infrared (VIS-IR) satellite sensors is discussed.
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Disaster Distress Helpline: Wildfires
... Tips Anniversaries and Trigger Events Types of Disasters Tornadoes and Severe Storms Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Floods ... While not reported as often as floods or tornadoes and severe storms , they, too, can cause emotional ...
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Li, Songmin; Wang, Xiaoling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Jiansheng; Tu, Jiamin
2017-03-01
Nonpoint storm runoff remains a major threat to surface water quality in China. As a paddy matures, numerous fertilizers are needed, especially in the rainy seasons; the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainfall runoff from farmland is much higher than at other times, and this poses a great threat to water bodies and is the main reason for water eutrophication, especially in high concentration drainages. To date, most studies regarding the characteristics of pollutants in rainfall runoff have mainly been concentrated on urban runoff and watershed runoff; therefore, it is particularly important to investigate the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss in rainfall runoff from paddy fields. To study the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss and whether the first flush effect exists, continuous monitoring of the rainfall runoff process of six rainfall events was conducted in 2013, of which four rainfall events during storm, high, middle, and low intensity rainfalls were analyzed, and runoff and quality parameters, such as suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), ammonium nitrogen (NH 4 + -N), nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 - -N), total phosphorus (TP), and phosphate (PO 4 3- -P), were analyzed to determine the relationship between runoff and water quality. The paddy field is located north of Wuxi Lake Basin along the Hejia River upstream in Zhoutie town, Yixing city. An analysis of the load distribution during rainfall runoff was conducted. Event mean concentration (EMC) was used to evaluate the pollution situation of the paddy field's rainfall runoff. A curve of the dimensionless normalized cumulative load (L) vs. normalized cumulative flow (F) (L-F curve), the probability of the mass first flush (MFFn), and the pollutants carried by the initial 25% of runoff (FF 25 ) were used to analyze the first flush effect of the paddy field runoff, and different contaminants show different results: the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus fluctuate and follow a similar trend as runoff changes, NO 3 - -N concentration is lower in the early part of runoff and higher in the later, and TP mainly occurs in the particle state in storm runoff and mainly in the dissolved state when the rainfall intensity is smaller. Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from paddy fields are closely related to the average rainfall intensity and the max rainfall intensity, and the runoff loss of nitrogen and phosphorus is more severe when the rainfall intensity is large. Based on an analysis of multiple methodologies, TN and NH 4 + -N show a certain degree of a first flush effect, whereas the first flush effect of TP is not obvious. The first flush effect of SS is obvious in larger intensity rainfall and shows a slight secondary flush effect in smaller rainfall events.
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THE STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL (SWMM) AND RELATED WATERSHED TOOLS DEVELOPMENT
The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. It is the only publicly available model capable of performing a comprehensiv...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vergara-Blanco, J. E.; Leboeuf-Pasquier, J.; Benavides-Solorio, J. D. D.
2017-12-01
A simulation software that reproduces rainfall infiltration and runoff for a storm event in a particular forest area is presented. A cellular automaton is utilized to represent space and time. On the time scale, the simulation is composed by a sequence of discrete time steps. On the space scale, the simulation is composed of forest surface cells. The software takes into consideration rain intensity and length, individual forest cell soil absorption capacity evolution, and surface angle of inclination. The software is developed with the C++ programming language. The simulation is executed on a 100 ha area within La Primavera Forest in Jalisco, Mexico. Real soil texture for unburned terrain and high severity wildfire affected terrain is employed to recreate the specific infiltration profile. Historical rainfall data of a 92 minute event is used. The Horton infiltration equation is utilized for infiltration capacity calculation. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is employed to reproduce the surface topography. The DEM is displayed with a 3D mesh graph where individual surface cells can be observed. The plot colouring renders water content development at the cell level throughout the storm event. The simulation shows that the cumulative infiltration and runoff which take place at the surface cell level depend on the specific storm intensity, fluctuation and length, overall terrain topography, cell slope, and soil texture. Rainfall cumulative infiltration for unburned and high severity wildfire terrain are compared: unburned terrain exhibits a significantly higher amount of rainfall infiltration.It is concluded that a cellular automaton can be utilized with a C++ program to reproduce rainfall infiltration and runoff under diverse soil texture, topographic and rainfall conditions in a forest setting. This simulation is geared for an optimization program to pinpoint the locations of a series of forest land remediation efforts to support reforestation or to minimize runoff.
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Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Stevens, Michael R.
2013-01-01
This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2013 West Fork Fire Complex near South Fork in southwestern Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within and just downstream from the burned area, and to estimate the same for 54 drainage basins of interest within the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the debris-flow models included topographic variables, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm; (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm; and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow probabilities at the pour points of the 54 drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 to 65 percent in response to the 2-year storm; from 1 to 77 percent in response to the 10-year storm; and from 1 to 83 percent in response to the 25-year storm. Twelve of the 54 drainage basins of interest have a 30-percent probability or greater of producing a debris flow in response to the 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow volumes for all rainfalls modeled range from a low of 2,400 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages also were predicted to produce substantial debris flows. One of the 54 drainage basins of interest had the highest combined hazard ranking, while 9 other basins had the second highest combined hazard ranking. Of these 10 basins with the 2 highest combined hazard rankings, 7 basins had predicted debris-flow volumes exceeding 100,000 cubic meters, while 3 had predicted probabilities of debris flows exceeding 60 percent. The 10 basins with high combined hazard ranking include 3 tributaries in the headwaters of Trout Creek, four tributaries to the West Fork San Juan River, Hope Creek draining toward a county road on the eastern edge of the burn, Lake Fork draining to U.S. Highway 160, and Leopard Creek on the northern edge of the burn. The probabilities and volumes for the modeled storms indicate a potential for debris-flow impacts on structures, reservoirs, roads, bridges, and culverts located within and immediately downstream from the burned area. U.S. Highway 160, on the eastern edge of the burn area, also is susceptible to impacts from debris flows.
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Presley, Todd K.
2001-01-01
The State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program was implemented on January 1, 2001. The program includes the collection of rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data at selected sites in the Halawa Stream drainage basin. Rainfall and streamflow data were collected from July 1, 2000 to June 30, 2001. Few storms during the year met criteria for antecedent dry conditions or provided enough runoff to sample. The storm of June 5, 2001 was sufficiently large to cause runoff. On June 5, 2001, grab samples were collected at five sites along North Halawa and Halawa Streams. The five samples were later analyzed for nutrients, trace metals, oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, biological and chemical oxygen demands, total suspended solids, and total dissolved solids.
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Young, Stacie T.M.; Ball, Marcael T.J.
2004-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. This program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream. For this program, rainfall data were collected at two sites, continuous streamflow data at three sites, and water-quality data at five sites, which include the three streamflow sites. This report summarizes rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2003 and June 30, 2004. A total of 30 samples was collected over four storms during July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004. In general, an attempt was made to collect grab samples nearly simultaneously at all five sites, and flow-weighted time-composite samples were collected at the three sites equipped with automatic samplers. However, all four storms were partially sampled because either not all stations were sampled or only grab samples were collected. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc). Grab samples were additionally analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Quality-assurance/quality-control samples, collected during storms and during routine maintenance, were also collected to verify analytical procedures and check the effectiveness of equipment-cleaning procedures.
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Transfer of glyphosate and its degradate AMPA to surface waters through urban sewerage systems.
Botta, Fabrizio; Lavison, Gwenaëlle; Couturier, Guillaume; Alliot, Fabrice; Moreau-Guigon, Elodie; Fauchon, Nils; Guery, Bénédicte; Chevreuil, Marc; Blanchoud, Hélène
2009-09-01
A study of glyphosate and aminomethyl phosphonic acid (AMPA) transfer in the Orge watershed (France) was carried out during 2007 and 2008. Water samples were collected in surface water, wastewater sewer, storm sewer and wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). These two molecules appeared to be the most frequently detected ones in the rivers and usually exceeded the European quality standard concentrations of 0.1microg L(-1) for drinking water. The annual glyphosate estimated load was 1.9 kg year(-1) upstream (agricultural zone) and 179.5 kg year(-1) at the catchment outlet (urban zone). This result suggests that the contamination of this basin by glyphosate is essentially from urban origin (road and railway applications). Glyphosate reached surface water prevalently through storm sewer during rainfall event. Maximum concentrations were detected in storm sewer just after a rainfall event (75-90 microg L(-1)). High concentrations of glyphosate in surface water during rainfall events reflected urban runoff impact. AMPA was always detected in the sewerage system. This molecule reached surface water mainly via WWTP effluent and also through storm sewer. Variations in concentrations of AMPA during hydrological episodes were minor compared to glyphosate variations. Our study highlights that AMPA and glyphosate origins in urban area are different. During dry period, detergent degradation seemed to be the major AMPA source in wastewater.
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A soil water budget model for precipitation-induced shallow landslides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yeh, Hsin-Fu; Lee, Cheng-Haw
2013-04-01
Precipitation infiltration influences both the quantity and quality of slope systems. Knowledge of the mechanisms leading to precipitation-induced slope failures is of great importance to the management of landslide hazard. In this study, a soil water balance model is developed to estimate soil water flux during the process of infiltration from rainfall data, with consideration of storm periods and non-storm periods. Two important assumptions in this study are given: (1) instantaneous uniform distribution of the degree of effective saturation and (2) a linear relationship between evapotranspiration and the related degree of saturation degree. For storm periods, the Brooks and Corey model estimates both the soil water retention curve (SWRC) and soil water parameters. The infiltration partition is employed by an infinite-series solution of Philip in conjunction with the time compression approximation (TCA). For none-storm periods, evapotranspiration can be derived for the moisture depletion of soil water. This study presents a procedure for calculating the safety factor for an unsaturated slope suffering from precipitation infiltration. The process of infiltration into a slope due to rainfall and its effect on soil slope behavior are examined using modified Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion in conjunction with a soil water balance model. The results indicate that the matric suction, which is closely related to slope stability, is affected by the effective degree of saturation controlled by rainfall events.
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Presley, Todd K.; Jamison, Marcael T.J.; Young-Smith, Stacie T. M.
2006-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. This program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream. For this program, rainfall data were collected at two stations, continuous discharge data at one station, continuous streamflow data at two stations, and water-quality data at five stations, which include the continuous discharge and streamflow stations. This report summarizes rainfall, discharge, streamflow, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2005 and June 30, 2006. A total of 23 samples was collected over five storms during July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006. The goal was to collect grab samples nearly simultaneously at all five stations, and flow-weighted time-composite samples at the three stations equipped with automatic samplers; however, all five storms were partially sampled owing to lack of flow at the time of sampling at some sites, or because some samples collected by the automatic sampler did not represent water from the storm. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). Additionally, grab samples were analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Quality-assurance/quality-control samples were also collected during storms and during routine maintenance to verify analytical procedures and check the effectiveness of equipment-cleaning procedures.
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Hydrologic conditions controlling runoff generation immediately after wildfire
Ebel, Brian A.; Moody, John A.; Martin, Deborah A.
2012-01-01
We investigated the control of postwildfire runoff by physical and hydraulic properties of soil, hydrologic states, and an ash layer immediately following wildfire. The field site is within the area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire in Colorado, USA. Physical and hydraulic property characterization included ash thickness, particle size distribution, hydraulic conductivity, and soil water retention curves. Soil water content and matric potential were measured indirectly at several depths below the soil surface to document hydrologic states underneath the ash layer in the unsaturated zone, whereas precipitation and surface runoff were measured directly. Measurements of soil water content showed that almost no water infiltrated below the ash layer into the near-surface soil in the burned site at the storm time scale (i.e., minutes to hours). Runoff generation processes were controlled by and highly sensitive to ash thickness and ash hydraulic properties. The ash layer stored from 97% to 99% of rainfall, which was critical for reducing runoff amounts. The hydrologic response to two rain storms with different rainfall amounts, rainfall intensity, and durations, only ten days apart, indicated that runoff generation was predominantly by the saturation-excess mechanism perched at the ash-soil interface during the first storm and predominantly by the infiltration-excess mechanism at the ash surface during the second storm. Contributing area was not static for the two storms and was 4% (saturation excess) to 68% (infiltration excess) of the catchment area. Our results showed the importance of including hydrologic conditions and hydraulic properties of the ash layer in postwildfire runoff generation models.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.
2012-04-01
This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series were recorded every ten minutes and hourly, aggregated. Preliminary results show adequate simulation of the main features of rain. Main variables are well simulated for time series of ten minutes, also over one hour precipitation time series, which are those that generate higher rainfall hydrologic design. For coarse scales, less than one hour, rainfall durations are not appropriate under the simulation. A hypothesis may be an excessive number of simulated events, which causes further fragmentation of storms, resulting in an excess of rain "short" (less than 1 hour), and therefore also among rain events, compared with the ones that occur in the actual series.
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McCain, Jerald F.; Shroba, R.R.
1979-01-01
PART A: Devastating flash floods swept through the canyon section of Larimer County in north-central Colorado during the night of July 31-August I, 1976, causing 139 deaths, 5 missing persons, and more than $35 million in total damages. The brunt of the storms occurred over the Big Thompson River basin between Drake and Estes Park with rainfall amounts as much as 12 inches being reported during the storm period. In the Cache la Poudre River basin to the north, a rainfall amount of 10 inches was reported for one locality while 6 inches fell over a widespread area near the central part of the basin. The storms developed when strong low-level easterly winds to the rear of a polar front pushed a moist, conditionally unstable airmass upslope into the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Orographic uplift released the convective instability, and light south-southeasterly winds at middle and upper levels allowed the storm complex to remain nearly stationary over the foothills for several hours. Minimal entrainment of relatively moist air at middle and upper levels, very low cloud bases, and a slightly tilted updraft structure contributed to a high precipitation efficiency. Intense rainfall began soon after 1900 MDT (Mountain Daylight Time) in the Big Thompson River and the North Fork Cache la Poudre River basins. A cumulative rainfall curve developed for Glen Comfort from radar data indicates that 7.5 inches of rain fell during the period 1930-2040 MDT on July 31. In the central part of the storm area west of Fort Collins, the heaviest rainfall began about 2200 MDT on July 31 and continued until 0100 MDT on August 1. Peak discharges were extremely large on many streams in the storm area-exceeding previously recorded maximum discharges at several locations. The peak discharge of the Big Thompson River at the gaging station at the canyon mouth, near Drake was 31,200 cubic feet per second or more than four times the previous maximum discharge of 7,600 cubic feet per second at the site during 88 years of flood history. At the gaging station on the North Fork Big Thompson River at Drake, the peak discharge on July 31 was 8,710 cubic feet per second as compared to the previous maximum discharge during 29 years of record of 1,290 cubic feet per second. Peak discharges for three small tributaries near the area of heaviest rainfall northeast of Estes Park exceeded previously recorded maximum discharges for basins of less than 4 square miles in Colorado. Stream velocities were rapid along the tributaries near the storm center and on the Big Thompson River in the canyon section, with average velocities of 20-25 feet per second being common. The flood crest on the Big Thompson River moved through the 7.7-mile reach between Drake and the canyon mouth in about 30 minutes for an average travel rate of 15 miles per hour, or about 23 feet per second. The peak discharge of the flood on the Big Thompson River at the canyon mouth exceeded the 100-year flood discharge for the site by a ratio of 1.8. Upstream in the Big Thompson River basin, the flood was even more rare being 3.8 times the estimated 100-year flood discharge at the site on the Big Thompson River just upstream from Drake. In the Cache la Poudre River basin, recurrence intervals were computed to be 100 years for the flood on Deadman Creek and 16 years for Rist Canyon and the Cache la Poudre River at the canyon mouth near Fort Collins. Although the rainfall and flood discharges were unusually large, they are not unprecedented for some areas along the eastern foothills and plains of Colorado. The May 1935 and June 1965 floods on some streams along the eastern plains greatly exceeded the 1976 flood peaks in the storm area. Prior floods on several other streams in the foothills have approximately equaled the 1976 peak discharges. PART B: Intense rainfall from the Big Thompson thunderstorm complex on the evening of July 31,1976, and the ensuing floods that evening and the fol
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, B.-Z.
2012-04-01
A study of Trend and Shift on annual maximum daily data over 500 raingauges with data length of 80 years or longer in the Ohio River Basin U.S. demonstrated a significant increase in variance of the data over time. The area-average increase in standard deviation is 23% for the recent 40 years (1959 - 1998) in comparison with the earlier 40-60 years (1919 or earlier - 1958). This implies that more and more extreme hydrometeorological events such as extreme rainfalls and droughts could be observed in the future years. The centurial flood disaster of August 8-10 2009 in the mid-southern Taiwan caused by Morakot Typhoon and the extraordinary drought lasting from winter 2009 to early summer 2010 wreaking havoc of a vast area of south-west China mainland were two good examples of the extremes. This variation could attribute to climate change. It challenges the hydrologic frequency analysis. Thus, exploration of a robust and reliable approach to precipitation frequency analysis becomes an imminent issue in hydrologic design studies. This paper introduces a novel hydrometeorological approach, the Regional L-moments method (RLM), to rainfall frequency analysis. There are two fatal weaknesses in FA: 1) There is no analytical way to derive a theoretical distribution to best fit the data; 2) The theoretical true value of a frequency such as 50-y or 100-y is unknown forever. The RLM, which is developed based on the order statistics and the concept of hydrometeorological homogeneity, demonstrates unbiasedness of parameter estimates and robust to outliers, and reduces the uncertainties of frequency estimates as well via the real data in Ohio River Basin of the U.S. and in the Taihu Lake Basin of China. Further study indicated that the variation of the frequency estimates such as 10-year, 100-year, 500-year, etc. is not normal as suggested in current textbooks. Actually, the frequency estimates vary asymmetrically from positive skew to negative skew when estimates go through from common frequencies to rare frequencies. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is defined as the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for a design watershed or a given storm area at a particular location at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climate trends (WMO, 2009). The PMP has been widely used by many hydrologists to determine the probable maximum flood (PMF) critical to the design of a variety of hydrological structures and other high profile infrastructures such as nuclear power-generation station with respect to flood-protection, for which a high level safety is required. What is the impact of climate change on PMP estimation? Actually, in the definition of PMP, there is "no allowance made for long-term climate trends" (WMO, 2009). However, when people are talking about impact of climate change on PMP estimation, two things may be taken into account practically: (1) To affect the precipitable water as a result of increase of SST; (2) Effect on the selection of the transposed storm because more extreme storms would occur due to climate change and more potential candidates to be used for storm transposition. The occurrence of a severe rainfall storm could alter the PMP estimates. A good example is the lashing of the Typhoon Morakot of 8 - 10 Aug. 2009 on Taiwan Island that set up new rainfall picture. What is the effect of topography on rainfall is another big issue in PMP estimation. Many observations of precipitation in mountainous areas show a general increase in precipitation with elevation. Practically, the effect of topography on rainfall should be taken into account in PMP estimation and implemented by the storm separation technique. The Step-Duration-Orographic-Intensification-Factor (SDOIF) Method, which was developed based on statistics analysis of extreme rainfalls in the storm area, can practically be used as storm separation technique to decouple the Morakot storm rainfalls into two components, convergence component and orographic component. Then, the convergence component can be transposed in a wider area for PMP estimation at a design location in the East Asia region. At last, this paper provides a clue for the first time on relationship between the frequency analysis and the PMP estimation in terms of hydrologic engineering design studies.
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Rankl, James G.
1990-01-01
A physically based point-infiltration model was developed for computing infiltration of rainfall into soils and the resulting runoff from small basins in Wyoming. The user describes a 'design storm' in terms of average rainfall intensity and storm duration. Information required to compute runoff for the design storm by using the model include (1) soil type and description, and (2) two infiltration parameters and a surface-retention storage parameter. Parameter values are tabulated in the report. Rainfall and runoff data for three ephemeral-stream basins that contain only one type of soil were used to develop the model. Two assumptions were necessary: antecedent soil moisture is some long-term average, and storm rainfall is uniform in both time and space. The infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters were determined for the soil of each basin. Observed rainstorm and runoff data were used to develop a separation curve, or incipient-runoff curve, which distinguishes between runoff and nonrunoff rainfall data. The position of this curve defines the infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters. A procedure for applying the model to basins that contain more than one type of soil was developed using data from 7 of the 10 study basins. For these multiple-soil basins, the incipient-runoff curve defines the infiltration and retention-storage parameters for the soil having the highest runoff potential. Parameters were defined by ranking the soils according to their relative permeabilities and optimizing the position of the incipient-runoff curve by using measured runoff as a control for the fit. Analyses of runoff from multiple-soil basins indicate that the effective contributing area of runoff is less than the drainage area of the basin. In this study, the effective drainage area ranged from 41.6 to 71.1 percent of the total drainage area. Information on effective drainage area is useful in evaluating drainage area as an independent variable in statistical analyses of hydrologic data, such as annual peak frequency distributions and sediment yield.A comparison was made of the sum of the simulated runoff and the sum of the measured runoff for all available records of runoff-producing storms in the 10 study basins. The sums of the simulated runoff ranged from 12.0 percent less than to 23.4 percent more than the sums of the measured runoff. A measure of the standard error of estimate was computed for each data set. These values ranged from 20 to 70 percent of the mean value of the measured runoff. Rainfall-simulator infiltrometer tests were made in two small basins. The amount of water uptake measured by the test in Dugout Creek tributary basin averaged about three times greater than the amount of water uptake computed from rainfall and runoff data. Therefore, infiltrometer data were not used to determine infiltration rates for this study.
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Lefrancq, Marie; Jadas-Hécart, Alain; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Landry, David; Payraudeau, Sylvain
2017-06-01
Rainfall-induced peaks in pesticide concentrations can occur rapidly. Low frequency sampling may therefore largely underestimate maximum pesticide concentrations and fluxes. Detailed storm-based sampling of pesticide concentrations in runoff water to better predict pesticide sources, transport pathways and toxicity within the headwater catchments is lacking. High frequency monitoring (2min) of seven pesticides (Dimetomorph, Fluopicolide, Glyphosate, Iprovalicarb, Tebuconazole, Tetraconazole and Triadimenol) and one degradation product (AMPA) were assessed for 20 runoff events from 2009 to 2012 at the outlet of a vineyard catchment in the Layon catchment in France. The maximum pesticide concentrations were 387μgL -1 . Samples from all of the runoff events exceeded the legal limit of 0.1μgL -1 for at least one pesticide (European directive 2013/39/EC). High resolution sampling used to detect the peak pesticide levels revealed that Toxic Units (TU) for algae, invertebrates and fish often exceeded the European Uniform principles (25%). The point and average (time or discharge-weighted) concentrations indicated up to a 30- or 4-fold underestimation of the TU obtained when measuring the maximum concentrations, respectively. This highlights the important role of sampling methods for assessing peak exposure. High resolution sampling combined with concentration-discharge hysteresis analyses revealed that clockwise responses were predominant (52%), indicating that Hortonian runoff is the prevailing surface runoff trigger mechanism in the study catchment. The hysteresis patterns for suspended solids and pesticides were highly dynamic and storm- and chemical-dependent. Intense rainfall events induced stronger C-Q hysteresis (magnitude). This study provides new insights into the complexity of pesticide dynamics in runoff water and highlights the ability of hysteresis analysis to improve understanding of pesticide supply and transport. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fatichi, S.; Burlando, P.; Anagnostopoulos, G.
2014-12-01
Sub-surface hydrology has a dominant role on the initiation of rainfall-induced landslides, since changes in the soil water potential affect soil shear strength and thus apparent cohesion. Especially on steep slopes and shallow soils, loss of shear strength can lead to failure even in unsaturated conditions. A process based model, HYDROlisthisis, characterized by high resolution in space and, time is developed to investigate the interactions between surface and subsurface hydrology and shallow landslide initiation. Specifically, 3D variably saturated flow conditions, including soil hydraulic hysteresis and preferential flow, are simulated for the subsurface flow, coupled with a surface runoff routine. Evapotranspiration and specific root water uptake are taken into account for continuous simulations of soil water content during storm and inter-storm periods. The geotechnical component of the model is based on a multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis, which takes into account the basic principles of unsaturated soil mechanics. The model is applied to a small catchment in Switzerland historically prone to rainfall-triggered landslides. A series of numerical simulations were carried out with various boundary conditions (soil depths) and using hydrological and geotechnical components of different complexity. Specifically, the sensitivity to the inclusion of preferential flow and soil hydraulic hysteresis was tested together with the replacement of the infinite slope assumption with a multi-dimensional limit equilibrium analysis. The effect of the different model components on model performance was assessed using accuracy statistics and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results show that boundary conditions play a crucial role in the model performance and that the introduced hydrological (preferential flow and soil hydraulic hysteresis) and geotechnical components (multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis) considerably improve predictive capabilities in the presented case study.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lefrancq, Marie; Jadas-Hécart, Alain; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Landry, David; Payraudeau, Sylvain
2017-04-01
Rainfall-induced peaks in pesticide concentrations can occur rapidly; therefore, low frequency sampling may largely underestimate maximum pesticide concentrations and fluxes. Detailed storm-based sampling of pesticide concentrations in runoff water to better predict pesticide sources, transport pathways and toxicity within the headwater catchments is actually lacking. High frequency monitoring (2 min) of dissolved concentrations and loads for seven pesticides (Dimetomorph, Fluopicolide, Glyphosate, Iprovalicarb, Tebuconazole, Tetraconazole and Triadimenol) and one degradation product (AMPA) were assessed for 20 runoff events from 2009 to 2012 at the outlet of a vineyard catchment in the Layon catchment in France. The pesticide concentrations reached 387 µg/L. All of the runoff events exceeded the mandated acceptable concentrations of 0.1 µg/L for each pesticide (European directive 2013/39/EC). High resolution sampling used to detect the peak pesticide levels revealed that Toxic Units (TU) for algae, invertebrates and fish often exceeded the European Uniform principles (25%). The instantaneous and average (time or discharge-weighted) concentrations indicated an up to 30- or 4-fold underestimation of the TU obtained when measuring the maximum concentrations, respectively, highlighting the important role of the sampling methods for assessing peak exposure. High resolution sampling combined with concentration-discharge hysteresis analyses revealed that clockwise responses were predominant (52%), indicating that Hortonian runoff is the prevailing surface runoff trigger mechanism in the study catchment. The hysteresis patterns for suspended solids and pesticides were highly dynamic and storm- and chemical-dependent. Intense rainfall events induced stronger C-Q hysteresis (magnitude). This study provides new insights into the complexity of pesticide dynamics in runoff water and highlights the ability of hysteresis analysis to improve the understanding of pesticide supply and transport.
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An analytic solution of the stochastic storage problem applicable to soil water
Milly, P.C.D.
1993-01-01
The accumulation of soil water during rainfall events and the subsequent depletion of soil water by evaporation between storms can be described, to first order, by simple accounting models. When the alternating supplies (precipitation) and demands (potential evaporation) are viewed as random variables, it follows that soil-water storage, evaporation, and runoff are also random variables. If the forcing (supply and demand) processes are stationary for a sufficiently long period of time, an asymptotic regime should eventually be reached where the probability distribution functions of storage, evaporation, and runoff are stationary and uniquely determined by the distribution functions of the forcing. Under the assumptions that the potential evaporation rate is constant, storm arrivals are Poisson-distributed, rainfall is instantaneous, and storm depth follows an exponential distribution, it is possible to derive the asymptotic distributions of storage, evaporation, and runoff analytically for a simple balance model. A particular result is that the fraction of rainfall converted to runoff is given by (1 - R−1)/(eα(1−R−1) − R−1), in which R is the ratio of mean potential evaporation to mean rainfall and a is the ratio of soil water-holding capacity to mean storm depth. The problem considered here is analogous to the well-known problem of storage in a reservoir behind a dam, for which the present work offers a new solution for reservoirs of finite capacity. A simple application of the results of this analysis suggests that random, intraseasonal fluctuations of precipitation cannot by themselves explain the observed dependence of the annual water balance on annual totals of precipitation and potential evaporation.
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Analysis of sediment production from two small semiarid basins in Wyoming
Rankl, J.G.
1987-01-01
Data were collected at two small, semiarid basins in Wyoming to determine the relation between rainfall, runoff, and sediment production. The basins were Dugout Creek tributary and Saint Marys Ditch tributary. Sufficient rainfall and runoff data were collected at Dugout Creek tributary to determine the source of sediment and the dominant sediment production processes. Because runoff from only one storm occurred in Saint Marys Ditch tributary, emphasis of the study was placed on the analysis of data collected at Dugout Creek tributary. At Dugout Creek tributary, detailed measurements were made to establish the source of sediment. To determine the quantity of material removed from headcuts during the study, two headcuts were surveyed. Aerial photographs were used to define movement of all headcuts. The total quantity of sediment removed from all headcuts between September 26, 1982, and September 26, 1983, was estimated to be 1,220 tons, or 15%-25% of the estimated total sediment load passing the streamflow-gaging station. A soil plot was used to sample upland erosion. A rainfall and runoff modeling system was used to evaluate the interaction between the physical processes which control sediment production. The greatest change in computed sediment load was caused by changing the parameter values for equations used to compute the detachment of sediment particles by rainfall and overland flow resulted in very small changes in computed sediment load. The upland areas were the primary source of sediment. A relationship was developed between the peak of storm runoff and the total sediment load for that storm runoff. The sediment concentration used to compute the total sediment load for the storm runoff was determined from sediment samples collected by two automatic pumping samplers. The coefficient of variation of the relationship is 34% with a 0.99 correlation coefficient. (Author 's abstract)
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Sisson, Janice M.; Osbrough, Stacey L.
2017-05-01
Changes in the characteristics of Southern Hemisphere (SH) storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, have been related to changes in the annual cycle of SH baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability, as measured by the Phillips Criterion, have been found in the region of the climatological storm tracks; a zonal band of significant positive trends occur further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease/increase in baroclinic instability there is a decrease/increase in the growth rate of storm formation at these latitudes over this period, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. Based on model output from a multi-model ensemble (MME) of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, it is shown that these trends are the result of external radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols and land-use change. The MME is used in an analysis of variance method to separate the internal (natural) variability in the Phillips Criterion from influences associated with anomalous external radiative forcing. In all seasons, the leading externally forced mode has a significant trend and a loading pattern highly correlated with the pattern of trends in the Phillips Criterion. The covariance between the externally forced component of SH rainfall and the leading external mode strongly resembles the MME pattern of SH rainfall trends. A comparison between similar analyses of MME simulations using the second half of the twenty-first century of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show that trends in the Phillips Criterion and rainfall are projected to continue and intensify under increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
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Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.
2012-12-01
In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hess, L.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.
2016-12-01
As global surface temperatures rise, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is increasing in many areas, in particular the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for ecosystem nutrient losses, especially from agricultural ecosystems. We conducted a multi-year rainfall manipulation experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns affect nitrogen (N) leaching from row-crop ecosystems in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. 5x5m rainout shelters were installed in April 2015 to impose control and extreme rainfall patterns in replicated plots under conventional tillage and no-till management at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site. Plots exposed to the control rainfall treatment received ambient rainfall, and those exposed to the extreme rainfall treatment received the same total amount of water but applied once every 2 weeks, to simulate larger, less frequent storms. N leaching was calculated as the product of measured soil water N concentrations and modeled soil water drainage at 1.2m depth using HYDRUS-1D. Based on data to date, more N has been leached from both tilled and no-till soils exposed to the extreme rainfall treatment compared to the control rainfall treatment. Results thus far suggest that greater soil water drainage is a primary driver of this increase, and changes in within-system nitrogen cycling - such as net N mineralization and crop N uptake - may also play a role. The experiment is ongoing, and our results so far suggest that intensifying precipitation patterns may exacerbate N leaching from agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters, as well as for farmers.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hale, R. L.; Turnbull, L.; Earl, S.; Grimm, N. B.
2011-12-01
There has been an abundance of literature on the effects of urbanization on downstream ecosystems, particularly due to changes in nutrient inputs as well as hydrology. Less is known, however, about nutrient transport processes and processing in urban watersheds. Engineered drainage systems are likely to play a significant role in controlling the transport of water and nutrients downstream, and variability in these systems within and between cities may lead to differences in the effects of urbanization on downstream ecosystems over time and space. We established a nested stormwater sampling network with 12 watersheds ranging in scale from 5 to 17000 ha in the Indian Bend Wash watershed in Scottsdale, AZ. Small (<200ha) watersheds had uniform land cover (medium density residential), but were drained by a variety of stormwater infrastructure including surface runoff, pipes, natural or modified washes, and retention basins. At the outlet of each of these catchments we monitored rainfall and discharge, and sampled stormwater throughout runoff events for dissolved nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and organic carbon (oC). Urban stormwater infrastructure is characterized by a range of hydrologic connectivity. Piped watersheds are highly connected and runoff responds linearly to rainfall events, in contrast to watersheds drained with retention basins and washes, where runoff exhibits a nonlinear threshold response to rainfall events. Nutrient loads from piped watersheds scale linearly with total storm rainfall. Because of frequent flushing, nutrient concentrations from these sites are lower than from wash and retention basin drained sites and total nutrient loads exhibit supply limitation, e.g., nutrient loads are poorly predicted by storm rainfall and are strongly controlled by factors that determine the amount of nutrients stored within the watershed, such as antecedent dry days. In contrast, wash and retention basin-drained watersheds exhibit transport limitation. These watersheds flow less frequently than pipe-drained sites and therefore stormwater has higher concentrations of nutrients, although total loads are significantly lower. Nonlinearities in cross-storm rainfall-nutrient loading relationships for the wash and retention basin watersheds suggest that these systems may become supply limited during large rain events. Results show that characteristics of the hydrologic network such as hydrologic connectivity mediate terrestrial-aquatic linkages. Specifically, we see that increased hydrologic connectivity, as in the piped watershed, actually decreases the predictive power of storm size with regard to nutrient export, whereas nutrient loads from poorly connected watersheds are strongly predicted by storm size.
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Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth
2018-03-01
Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.
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Ashland, Francis; Fiore, Alex R.; Reilly, Pamela A.; De Graff, Jerome V.; Shakoor, Abdul
2017-01-01
Meteorological and hydrologic conditions associated with shallow landslide initiation in the coastal bluffs of the Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey remain undocumented despite a history of damaging slope movement extending back to at least 1903. This study applies an empirical approach to quantify the rainfall conditions leading to shallow landsliding based on analysis of overlapping historical precipitation data and records of landslide occurrence, and uses continuous monitoring to quantify antecedent soil moisture and hydrologic response to rainfall events at two failure-prone hillslopes. Analysis of historical rainfall data reveals that both extended duration and cumulative rainfall amounts are critical characteristics of many landslide-inducing storms, and is consistent with current monitoring results that show notable increases in shallow soil moisture and pore-water pressure in continuous rainfall periods. Monitoring results show that shallow groundwater levels and soil moisture increase from annual lows in late summer-early fall to annual highs in late winter-early spring, and historical data indicate that shallow landslides occur most commonly from tropical cyclones in late summer through fall and nor’easters in spring. Based on this seasonality, we derived two provisional rainfall thresholds using a limited dataset of documented landslides and rainfall conditions for each season and storm type. A lower threshold for landslide initiation in spring corresponds with high antecedent moisture conditions, and higher rainfall amounts are required to induce shallow landslides during the drier soil moisture conditions in late summer-early fall.
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EPISODIC EVENTS: THE EFFECT OF FLOODS ON NUTRIENT TRANSPORT IN A NORTHWESTERN, USA ESTUARY
To estimate the effects of storms on nutrient transport, dissolved nutrients and suspended sediment loads were measured relative to stream discharge in the Yaquina River, OR for three storm events. Episodic events, particularly high rainfall or flood events may transport high di...
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Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA
Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Aris P. Georgakakos; Sankar Arumugam; James Cruise; Richard T. McNider; Adam Terando; Paul A. Conrads; John Feldt; Vasu Misra; Luigi Romolo; Todd C. Rasmussen; Daniel A. Marion
2013-01-01
Key FindingsClimate change is affecting the southeastern USA, particularly increases in rainfall variability and air temperature, which have resulted in more frequent hydrologic extremes, such as high‐intensity storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), flooding, and drought events.Future climate warming likely will...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Habibi, H.; Norouzi, A.; Habib, A.; Seo, D. J.
2016-12-01
To produce accurate predictions of flooding in urban areas, it is necessary to model both natural channel and storm drain networks. While there exist many urban hydraulic models of varying sophistication, most of them are not practical for real-time application for large urban areas. On the other hand, most distributed hydrologic models developed for real-time applications lack the ability to explicitly simulate storm drains. In this work, we develop a storm drain model that can be coupled with distributed hydrologic models such as the National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory's Distributed Hydrologic Model, for real-time flash flood prediction in large urban areas to improve prediction and to advance the understanding of integrated response of natural channels and storm drains to rainfall events of varying magnitude and spatiotemporal extent in urban catchments of varying sizes. The initial study area is the Johnson Creek Catchment (40.1 km2) in the City of Arlington, TX. For observed rainfall, the high-resolution (500 m, 1 min) precipitation data from the Dallas-Fort Worth Demonstration Network of the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere radars is used.
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Subsurface drainage processes and management impacts
Elizabeth T. Keppeler; David Brown
1998-01-01
Storm-induced streamflow in forested upland watersheds is linked to rainfall by transient, variably saturated flow through several different flow paths. In the absence of exposed bedrock, shallow flow-restrictive layers, or compacted soil surfaces, virtually all of the infiltrated rainfall reaches the stream as subsurface flow. Subsurface runoff can occur within...
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Problems and Prospects of SWAT Model Application on an Arid/Semi-Arid Watershed in Arizona
In arid/semi-arid regions, precipitation mainly occurs during two periods: long-duration, low-intensity rainfall in winter; and short-duration, high-intensity rainfall in summer. Watersheds in arid/semi-arid regions often release water almost immediately after a storm due to spa...
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The extent of wind-induced undercatch in the UK winter storms of 2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pollock, Michael; Colli, Matteo; Stagnaro, Mattia; Quinn, Paul; Dutton, Mark; O'Donnell, Greg; Wilkinson, Mark; Black, Andrew; O'Connell, Enda; Lanza, Luca
2016-04-01
The most widely used device for measuring rainfall is the rain gauge, of which the tipping bucket (TBR) is the most prevalent type. Rain gauges are considered by many to be the most accurate method currently available. The data they produce are used in flood-forecasting and flood risk management, water resource management, hydrological modelling and evaluating impacts on climate change; to name but a few. Rain gauges may provide the most accurate measurement of rainfall at a point in space and time, but they are subject to errors - and some gauges are more prone than others. The most significant error is the 'wind-induced undercatch'. This is caused by the gauge itself contributing to an acceleration of the wind speed near the orifice, which disturbs and distorts the airflow. The trajectories of precipitation particles are affected, resulting in an undercatch. Results from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, presented herein, describe in detail the physical processes contributing to this. High resolution field measurements of rainfall and wind are collected at four field research stations in the UK. Each site is equipped with juxtaposed rain gauges with different funnel profiles, in addition to a WMO reference pit rain gauge measurement. These data describe the rainfall measurement uncertainty. The sites were selected to represent the prevalent rainfall regimes observed in the UK. Two research stations are on the west coast; which is prone to frontal weather systems and storms swept in from the Atlantic, often enhanced by orography. Two are located in the east. Rural lowland and upland areas are represented, both in the west and the east. Urban sites will also have significant undercatch problems but are outside the scope of this study. Data from the four research stations are analysed for the 2015 winter storms which caused devastating flooding in the west of the UK, particularly Cumbria and the Scottish Borders, where two of the sites are located. An assessment of the effect of wind on the rainfall catch during these large storm events is presented for each research station. Based on a reference pit rain gauge, the undercatch for these events is calculated. The difference in rainfall catch between several types of rain gauge mounted at variable heights is also investigated. This work aims to demonstrate the importance of improving the accuracy of rainfall measurements, and to emphasise the need to provide an assessment of the measurement uncertainty. A knowledge gap exists in the understanding of precisely how physical phenomena are contributing to wind-induced undercatch. For instance, a priori, the effect of the wind on the rainfall catch will change depending upon the dimensions of the rain droplets. Rainfall 'type' and rainfall intensity may be able to inform corrections, but rigorous multi-variate statistical analysis of high resolution measurements will be key to the success of these procedures. As the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall can be highly variable, and each measurement location is different; it is a challenging undertaking to understand and pin down the fundamental processes responsible for the wind-induced undercatch.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, S.; Zhang, L. M.
2017-01-01
The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered the largest number of landslides among the recent strong earthquake events around the world. The loose landslide materials were retained on steep terrains and deep gullies. In the period from 2008 to 2015, numerous debris flows occurred during rainstorms along the Provincial Road 303 (PR303) near the epicentre of the earthquake, causing serious damage to the reconstructed highway. Approximately 5.24 × 106 m3 of debris-flow sediment was deposited shortly after the earthquake. This paper evaluates the evolution of the debris flows that occurred after the Wenchuan earthquake, which helps understand long-term landscape evolution and cascading effects in regions impacted by mega earthquakes. With the aid of a GIS platform combined with field investigations, we continuously tracked movements of the loose deposit materials in all the debris flow gullies along an 18 km reach of PR303 and the characteristics of the regional debris flows during several storms in the past seven years. This paper presents five important aspects of the evolution of debris flows: (1) supply of debris flow materials; (2) triggering rainfall; (3) initiation mechanisms and types of debris flows; (4) runout characteristics; and (5) elevated riverbed due to the deposited materials from the debris flows. The hillslope soil deposits gradually evolved into channel deposits and the solid materials in the channels moved towards the ravine mouth. Accordingly, channelized debris flows became dominant gradually. Due to the decreasing source material volume and changes in debris flow characteristics, the triggering rainfall tends to increase from 30 mm h- 1 in 2008 to 64 mm h- 1 in 2013, and the runout distance tends to decrease over time. The runout materials blocked the river and elevated the riverbed by at least 30 m in parts of the study area. The changes in the post-seismic debris flow activity can be categorized into three stages, i.e., active, unstable, and recession.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crozier, M. J.
2017-10-01
Multiple-occurrence regional landslide events (MORLEs) consist of hundreds to thousands of shallow landslides occurring more or less simultaneously within defined areas, ranging from tens to thousands of square kilometres. While MORLEs can be triggered by rainstorms and earthquakes, this paper is confined to those landslide events triggered by rainstorms. Globally, MORLEs occur in a range of geological settings in areas of moderate to steep slopes subject to intense rainstorms. Individual landslides in rainstorm-triggered events are dominantly small, shallow debris and earth flows, and debris and earth slides involving regolith or weathered bedrock. The model used to characterise these events assumes that energy distribution within the event area is represented on the land surface by a cell structure; with maximum energy expenditure within an identifiable core and rapid dissipation concentrically away from the centre. The version of the model presented here has been developed for rainfall-triggered landslide events. It proposes that rainfall intensity can be used to determine different critical landslide response zones within the cell (referred to as core, middle, and periphery zones). These zones are most readily distinguished by two conditions: the proportion of the slope that fails and the particular type of the slope stability factor that assumes dominance in determining specific sites of landslide occurrence. The latter condition means that the power of any slope stability factor to distinguish between stable and unstable sites varies throughout the affected area in accordance with the landslide response zones within the cell; certain factors critical for determining the location of landslide sites in one part of the event area have little influence in other parts of the event area. The implication is that landslide susceptibility maps (and subsequently derived mitigation measures) based on conventional slope stability factors may have only limited validity for many events. The overall ability to predict the impact of these events and consequently the development of effective mitigation measures is limited by the ability to predict the travel path, storm centre, and intensity range within the cell structure of extreme weather systems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crozier, M. J.
2018-04-01
Multiple-occurrence regional landslide events (MORLEs) consist of hundreds to thousands of shallow landslides occurring more or less simultaneously within defined areas, ranging from tens to thousands of square kilometres. While MORLEs can be triggered by rainstorms and earthquakes, this paper is confined to those landslide events triggered by rainstorms. Globally, MORLEs occur in a range of geological settings in areas of moderate to steep slopes subject to intense rainstorms. Individual landslides in rainstorm-triggered events are dominantly small, shallow debris and earth flows, and debris and earth slides involving regolith or weathered bedrock. The model used to characterise these events assumes that energy distribution within the event area is represented on the land surface by a cell structure; with maximum energy expenditure within an identifiable core and rapid dissipation concentrically away from the centre. The version of the model presented here has been developed for rainfall-triggered landslide events. It proposes that rainfall intensity can be used to determine different critical landslide response zones within the cell (referred to as core, middle, and periphery zones). These zones are most readily distinguished by two conditions: the proportion of the slope that fails and the particular type of the slope stability factor that assumes dominance in determining specific sites of landslide occurrence. The latter condition means that the power of any slope stability factor to distinguish between stable and unstable sites varies throughout the affected area in accordance with the landslide response zones within the cell; certain factors critical for determining the location of landslide sites in one part of the event area have little influence in other parts of the event area. The implication is that landslide susceptibility maps (and subsequently derived mitigation measures) based on conventional slope stability factors may have only limited validity for many events. The overall ability to predict the impact of these events and consequently the development of effective mitigation measures is limited by the ability to predict the travel path, storm centre, and intensity range within the cell structure of extreme weather systems.
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Floods in Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas, September 12-13, 1977
Hauth, Leland D.; Carswell, William J.
1978-01-01
The storm of September 12-13, 1977, produced as much as 16 inches of rainfall in the Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas area, left 25 persons dead, many homeless, and caused over 50 million dollars in damages.Data from National Weather Service recording rain gages indicate the storm came in two bursts within 24 hours. Flood hydrographs developed from streamflow records in the area also reflect the two events, with the second yielding the greater runoff.Peak discharges were determined during and after flood at gaging stations and selected miscellaneous locations. Peak discharges in areas of great rainfall depths were well over the criteria for the 100-year flood.
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Mapping Dependence Between Extreme Rainfall and Storm Surge
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Wenyan; McInnes, Kathleen; O'Grady, Julian; Hoeke, Ron; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth
2018-04-01
Dependence between extreme storm surge and rainfall can have significant implications for flood risk in coastal and estuarine regions. To supplement limited observational records, we use reanalysis surge data from a hydrodynamic model as the basis for dependence mapping, providing information at a resolution of approximately 30 km along the Australian coastline. We evaluated this approach by comparing the dependence estimates from modeled surge to that calculated using historical surge records from 79 tide gauges around Australia. The results show reasonable agreement between the two sets of dependence values, with the exception of lower seasonal variation in the modeled dependence values compared to the observed data, especially at locations where there are multiple processes driving extreme storm surge. This is due to the combined impact of local bathymetry as well as the resolution of the hydrodynamic model and its meteorological inputs. Meteorological drivers were also investigated for different combinations of extreme rainfall and surge—namely rain-only, surge-only, and coincident extremes—finding that different synoptic patterns are responsible for each combination. The ability to supplement observational records with high-resolution modeled surge data enables a much more precise quantification of dependence along the coastline, strengthening the physical basis for assessments of flood risk in coastal regions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leonarduzzi, Elena; Molnar, Peter; McArdell, Brian W.
2017-08-01
A high-resolution gridded daily precipitation data set was combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972-2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds which lead to landsliding in Switzerland. We colocated triggering rainfall to landslides, developed distributions of triggering and nontriggering rainfall event properties, and determined rainfall thresholds and intensity-duration ID curves and validated their performance. The best predictive performance was obtained by the intensity-duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity Imax and mean event intensity Imean. Event duration by itself had very low predictive power. A single country-wide threshold of Imax = 28 mm/d was extended into space by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local climate (mean daily precipitation). It was found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility led to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, we showed that the improvement in model performance due to regionalization was marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high-quality landslide database. Reference cases in which the landslide locations and timing were randomized and the landslide sample size was reduced showed the sensitivity of the Imax rainfall threshold model. Jack-knife and cross-validation experiments demonstrated that the model was robust. The results reported here highlight the potential of using rainfall ID threshold curves and rainfall threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale with possible applications in landslide warning systems, even with daily data.
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Skinner, Kenneth D.
2013-01-01
A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m3]) to greater than 100,000 m3. Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chitu, Zenaida; Bogaard, Thom; Adler, Mary-Jeanne; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Busuioc, Aristita; Sandric, Ionut; Istrate, Alexandru
2014-05-01
Like in many parts of the world, landslides represent in Romania recurrent phenomena that produce numerous damages to the infrastructure every few years. The high frequency of landslide events over the world has resulted to the development of many early warning systems that are based on the definition of rainfall thresholds triggering landslides. In Romania in particular, recent studies exploring the temporal occurrence of landslides have revealed that rainfall represents the most important triggering factor for landslides. The presence of low permeability soils and gentle slope degrees in the Ialomita Subcarpathians of Romania makes that cumulated precipitation over variable time interval and the hydraulic response of the soil plays a key role in landslides triggering. In order to identify the slope responses to rainfall events in this particular area we investigate the variability of soil moisture and its relationship to landslide events in three Subcarpathians catchments (Cricovul Dulce, Bizididel and Vulcana) by combining in situ measurements, satellite-based radiometry and hydrological modelling. For the current study, hourly soil moisture measurements from six soil moisture monitoring stations that are fitted with volumetric soil moisture sensors, temperature soil sensors and rain gauges sensors are used. Pedotransfer functions will be applied in order to infer hydraulic soil properties from soil texture sampled from 50 soil profiles. The information about spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture content will be completed with the Level 2 soil moisture products from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. A time series analysis of soil moisture is planned to be integrated to landslide and rainfall time series in order to determine a preliminary rainfall threshold triggering landslides in Ialomita Subcarpathians.
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Rainy Day: A Remote Sensing-Driven Extreme Rainfall Simulation Approach for Hazard Assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wright, Daniel; Yatheendradas, Soni; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Ayalew, Tibebu; Mantilla, Ricardo; Krajewski, Witold
2015-04-01
Progress on the assessment of rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides has been hampered by the challenge of characterizing the frequency, intensity, and structure of extreme rainfall at the watershed or hillslope scale. Conventional approaches rely on simplifying assumptions and are strongly dependent on the location, the availability of long-term rain gage measurements, and the subjectivity of the analyst. Regional and global-scale rainfall remote sensing products provide an alternative, but are limited by relatively short (~15-year) observational records. To overcome this, we have coupled these remote sensing products with a space-time resampling framework known as stochastic storm transposition (SST). SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by resampling from a catalog of observed storms from a user-defined region, effectively recreating the regional extreme rainfall hydroclimate. This coupling has been codified in Rainy Day, a Python-based platform for quickly generating large numbers of probabilistic extreme rainfall "scenarios" at any point on the globe. Rainy Day is readily compatible with any gridded rainfall dataset. The user can optionally incorporate regional rain gage or weather radar measurements for bias correction using the Precipitation Uncertainties for Satellite Hydrology (PUSH) framework. Results from Rainy Day using the CMORPH satellite precipitation product are compared with local observations in two examples. The first example is peak discharge estimation in a medium-sized (~4000 square km) watershed in the central United States performed using CUENCAS, a parsimonious physically-based distributed hydrologic model. The second example is rainfall frequency analysis for Saint Lucia, a small volcanic island in the eastern Caribbean that is prone to landslides and flash floods. The distinct rainfall hydroclimates of the two example sites illustrate the flexibility of the approach and its usefulness for hazard analysis in data-poor regions.
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Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.
2017-12-01
While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.
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Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.
2017-12-01
Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.
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Impact of recent extreme Arizona storms
Magirl, C.S.; Webb, R.H.; Schaffner, M.; Lyon, S.W.; Griffiths, P.G.; Shoemaker, C.; Unkrich, C.L.; Yatheendradas, S.; Troch, Peter A.; Pytlak, E.; Goodrich, D.C.; Desilets, S.L.E.; Youberg, A.; Pearthree, P.A.
2007-01-01
Heavy rainfall on 27–31 July 2006 led to record flooding and triggered an historically unprecedented number of debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson, Ariz. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) documented record floods along four watercourses in the Tucson basin, and at least 250 hillslope failures spawned damaging debris flows in an area where less than 10 small debris flows had been documented in the past 25 years. At least 18 debris flows destroyed infrastructure in the heavily used Sabino Canyon Recreation Area (http://wwwpaztcn.wr.usgs.gov/rsch_highlight/articles/20061 l.html). In four adjacent canyons, debris flows reached the heads of alluvial fans at the boundary of the Tucson metropolitan area. While landuse planners in southeastern Arizona evaluate the potential threat of this previously little recognized hazard to residents along the mountain front, an interdisciplinary group of scientists has collaborated to better understand this extreme event.
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Lambs, Luc; Bompy, Félix; Dulormne, Maguy
2018-01-03
Studies of wetland eco-hydrology in tropical coastal area are scarce, and the use of water stable isotopes can be of great help. Key constraints for their analysis are (i) the small difference in δ 18 O values between seawater and old evaporated freshwater, and (ii) the fact that the presence of old brackish water limits the determination of the water origin and dynamic. The water of tropical storms displays distinctively depleted heavy stable isotopes, in comparison with usual tropical rainfall without strong convective thunderstorms. During tropical storms, such as Hurricane Rafael in mid-October 2012, the rainfall δ 18 O signal can be decreased by many units. This effect is called an "isotopic spike", and it could be used as a temporal marker of the water fluxes. Water samples, with δ 18 O values as low as = -8.9 ‰, were collected in the islands of Guadeloupe and Saint-Martin during Hurricane Rafael, whereas the usual range of groundwater or mean rainfall δ 18 O values is around -2.8 ± 0.5 ‰, as measured from 2009 to 2012. These water "isotopic spikes" allow us to show a surface fresh water uptake by mangrove trees in Guadeloupe, and in Saint-Martin, to calculate the water renewal of the salt ponds and pools. The "isotopic spikes" generated by tropical storms, are generally used to track back past storm events, as recorded in trees and stalagmites. Here, the propagation of isotopic spike is followed to improve the understanding of the freshwater circulation and the water dynamic within coastal ecosystems influenced by seawater. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Tropical storms and the flood hydrology of the central Appalachians
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sturdevant-Rees, Paula; Smith, James A.; Morrison, Julia; Baeck, Mary Lynn
2001-08-01
Flooding from Hurricane Fran is examined as a prototype for central Appalachian flood events that dominate the upper tail of flood peak distributions at basin scales between 100 and 10,000 km2. Hurricane Fran, which resulted in 34 deaths and more than $3.2 billion in damages, made land fall on the North Carolina coast at 0000 UTC, September 6, 1996. By 1200 UTC on September 6, Fran had weakened to a tropical storm, and the center of circulation was located at the North Carolina-Virginia border. Rain bands surrounding the tropical depression produced extreme rainfall and flooding in Virginia and West Virginia, with the most intense rainfall concentrated near ridge tops in the Blue Ridge and Valley and Ridge physiographic provinces. The most severe flooding occurred in the Shenandoah River watershed of Virginia, where peak discharges exceeded the 100-year magnitude at 11 of 19 U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations. The availability of high-resolution discharge and rainfall data sets provides the opportunity to study the hydrologic and hydrometeorological mechanisms associated with extreme floods produced by tropical storms. Analyses indicate that orographie enhancement of tropical storm precipitation plays a central role in the hydrology of extreme floods in the central Appalachian region. The relationships between drainage network structure and storm motion also play a major role in Appalachian flood hydrology. Runoff processes for Hurricane Fran reflected a mixture of saturation excess and infiltration excess mechanisms. Antecedent soil moisture played a significant role in the hydrology of extreme flooding from Hurricane Fran. Land use, in particular, the presence of forest cover, was of secondary importance to the terrain-based distribution of precipitation in determining extreme flood response.
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Gartner, J.E.; Cannon, S.H.; Santi, P.M.; deWolfe, V.G.
2008-01-01
Recently burned basins frequently produce debris flows in response to moderate-to-severe rainfall. Post-fire hazard assessments of debris flows are most useful when they predict the volume of material that may flow out of a burned basin. This study develops a set of empirically-based models that predict potential volumes of wildfire-related debris flows in different regions and geologic settings. The models were developed using data from 53 recently burned basins in Colorado, Utah and California. The volumes of debris flows in these basins were determined by either measuring the volume of material eroded from the channels, or by estimating the amount of material removed from debris retention basins. For each basin, independent variables thought to affect the volume of the debris flow were determined. These variables include measures of basin morphology, basin areas burned at different severities, soil material properties, rock type, and rainfall amounts and intensities for storms triggering debris flows. Using these data, multiple regression analyses were used to create separate predictive models for volumes of debris flows generated by burned basins in six separate regions or settings, including the western U.S., southern California, the Rocky Mountain region, and basins underlain by sedimentary, metamorphic and granitic rocks. An evaluation of these models indicated that the best model (the Western U.S. model) explains 83% of the variability in the volumes of the debris flows, and includes variables that describe the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30%, the basin area burned at moderate and high severity, and total storm rainfall. This model was independently validated by comparing volumes of debris flows reported in the literature, to volumes estimated using the model. Eighty-seven percent of the reported volumes were within two residual standard errors of the volumes predicted using the model. This model is an improvement over previous models in that it includes a measure of burn severity and an estimate of modeling errors. The application of this model, in conjunction with models for the probability of debris flows, will enable more complete and rapid assessments of debris flow hazards following wildfire.
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In an earlier study, Puente and Obregón [Water Resour. Res. 32(1996)2825] reported on the usage of a deterministic fractal–multifractal (FM) methodology to faithfully describe an 8.3 h high-resolution rainfall time series in Boston, gathered every 15 s ...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.
2016-09-01
Hydrologists and engineers may choose from a range of semidistributed rainfall-runoff models such as VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL, all of which predict runoff from a distribution of watershed properties. However, these models are not easily compared to event-based data and are missing ready-to-use analytical expressions that are analogous to the SCS-CN method. The SCS-CN method is an event-based model that describes the runoff response with a rainfall-runoff curve that is a function of the cumulative storm rainfall and antecedent wetness condition. Here we develop an event-based probabilistic storage framework and distill semidistributed models into analytical, event-based expressions for describing the rainfall-runoff response. The event-based versions called VICx, PDMx, and TOPMODELx also are extended with a spatial description of the runoff concept of "prethreshold" and "threshold-excess" runoff, which occur, respectively, before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. For total storm rainfall and antecedent wetness conditions, the resulting ready-to-use analytical expressions define the source areas (fraction of the watershed) that produce runoff by each mechanism. They also define the probability density function (PDF) representing the spatial variability of runoff depths that are cumulative values for the storm duration, and the average unit area runoff, which describes the so-called runoff curve. These new event-based semidistributed models and the traditional SCS-CN method are unified by the same general expression for the runoff curve. Since the general runoff curve may incorporate different model distributions, it may ease the way for relating such distributions to land use, climate, topography, ecology, geology, and other characteristics.
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Climate Change Increases Reproductive Failure in Magellanic Penguins
Boersma, P. Dee; Rebstock, Ginger A.
2014-01-01
Climate change is causing more frequent and intense storms, and climate models predict this trend will continue, potentially affecting wildlife populations. Since 1960 the number of days with >20 mm of rain increased near Punta Tombo, Argentina. Between 1983 and 2010 we followed 3496 known-age Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) chicks at Punta Tombo to determine how weather impacted their survival. In two years, rain was the most common cause of death killing 50% and 43% of chicks. In 26 years starvation killed the most chicks. Starvation and predation were present in all years. Chicks died in storms in 13 of 28 years and in 16 of 233 storms. Storm mortality was additive; there was no relationship between the number of chicks killed in storms and the numbers that starved (P = 0.75) or that were eaten (P = 0.39). However, when more chicks died in storms, fewer chicks fledged (P = 0.05, R 2 = 0.14). More chicks died when rainfall was higher and air temperature lower. Most chicks died from storms when they were 9–23 days old; the oldest chick killed in a storm was 41 days old. Storms with heavier rainfall killed older chicks as well as more chicks. Chicks up to 70 days old were killed by heat. Burrow nests mitigated storm mortality (N = 1063). The age span of chicks in the colony at any given time increased because the synchrony of egg laying decreased since 1983, lengthening the time when chicks are vulnerable to storms. Climate change that increases the frequency and intensity of storms results in more reproductive failure of Magellanic penguins, a pattern likely to apply to many species breeding in the region. Climate variability has already lowered reproductive success of Magellanic penguins and is likely undermining the resilience of many other species. PMID:24489663
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Young, Stacie T.M.; Ball, Marcael T.J.
2005-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. This program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream. For this program, rainfall data were collected at two stations, continuous streamflow data at two stations, and water-quality data at five stations, which include the two continuous streamflow stations. This report summarizes rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2004 and June 30, 2005. A total of 15 samples was collected over three storms during July 1, 2004 to June 30, 2005. In general, an attempt was made to collect grab samples nearly simultaneously at all five stations and flow-weighted time-composite samples at the three stations equipped with automatic samplers. However, all three storms were partially sampled because either not all stations were sampled or not all composite samples were collected. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). Chromium and nickel were added to the analysis starting October 1, 2004. Grab samples were additionally analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Quality-assurance/quality-control samples were also collected during storms and during routine maintenance to verify analytical procedures and check the effectiveness of equipment-cleaning procedures.
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Radar Detected Rainfall Intensity As An Input For Shallow Landslides Slope Stability Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leoni, L.; Rossi, G.; Catani, F.; Righini, G.; Rudari, R.
2008-12-01
The term "shallow landslides" is widely used in literature to describe a slope movement of limited size that mainly develops in soils up to a maximum of a few meters. Shallow landslides are usually triggered by heavy rainfall because, as the water starts to infiltrate in the soil, the pore-water pressure increases so that the shear strength of the soil is reduced leading to slope failure. For this work we have developed a distributed hydrological-geotechnical model for the forecasting of the temporal and spatial distribution of shallow landslide to be used as a warning system for civil protection purpose. The main goal of this work is the use of radar detected rainfall intensity as the input for the hydrological simulation of the infiltration. Using the rainfall pattern detected by the radar is in fact possible to dynamically control the redistribution of groundwater pressure associated with transient infiltration of rain so as to infer the slope stability of the studied area. The model deals with both saturated and unsaturated conditions. Two pilot sites have been chosen to develop and test this model: the Armea basin (Liguria, Italy) and the Ischia Island (Campania, Italy). In recent years several severe rainstorms have occurred in both these areas. In at least two cases these have triggered numerous shallow landslides that have caused victims and damaged roads, buildings and agricultural activities. In its current stage the basic basin-scale model applied for predicting the probable location of shallow landslides involves several stand-alone components. A module for estimating the groundwater pressure head distribution according to radar detected rainfall intensity, a soil depth prediction scheme and a limit-equilibrium infinite slope stability algorithm which produces a factor of safety (FS). The additional ancillary data required have been collected during the field work. The single components are seamlessly integrated into a system that automatically publishes constantly updated FS values to a WebGIS in near-real- time so that local administrators responsible for public safety can access and download the data from the internet. This system has been running for a few months and is now being validated. Several types of problems hinder a correct validation of the system. One major obstacle was overcome when major storms triggered several tens of soil slips in December 2006 for the Armea basin and in April 2006 for Ischia. This events provided both the necessary rainfall data for the soil saturation component, which until then for previous occurred landslides was lacking, and a new landslide inventory for comparison with the FS produced by the slope stability model for the same event. The inventory was derived from a newly acquired VHR satellite image. Another important aspect of the research being performed regards the assessment of the relative importance of the different parameters involved in the limit-equilibrium infinite slope stability model. This statistical sensitivity analysis has the aim of determining which errors in the input variables slope gradient, soil depth, soil saturation, cohesion and angle of internal friction produce the largest errors in the output FS values. Preliminary results indicate the importance of topographic attributes and of soil depth.
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Seasonal and spatial patterns of erosivity in a tropical watershed of the Colombian Andes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoyos, Natalia; Waylen, Peter R.; Jaramillo, Álvaro
2005-11-01
The Dosquebradas Basin, in the central coffee growing region of Colombia, covers an area of 58 km 2 between 1350 and 2150 m of elevation, with an annual precipitation of 2600-3200 mm. Seasonal erosivity (EI30), as defined by the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), was calculated for 11 years of record (1987-1997) from six pluviographic stations located within 21 km of the basin. Regression models for each station indicated that storm rainfall explained 61-70% of the variation in storm erosivity. Individual storms represented as much as 25% of the annual EI30 (10,409-15,975 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1). At the seasonal scale, the explained variation increased to 75-86%. There was a significant difference between wet and dry seasons, with higher values and larger increases in erosivity per unit increase in rainfall during the wet seasons. Two pooled regression models, one for the wet and one for the dry seasons, were created and used to estimate seasonal erosivity for 10 stations with pluviometric data. Interpolation surfaces were created from seasonal values using the local polynomial algorithm. Spatial patterns of erosivity were related to (a) the regional elevation gradient, particularly important during the dry seasons, and (b) local topographic effects, particularly during the wet seasons. Our findings underscore the importance of using seasonal erosivity values and local rainfall intensity records in tropical mountainous regions characterized by marked rainfall seasonality and complex topography.
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Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico
Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.
1991-01-01
On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average.
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Effect of water content on stability of landslides triggered by earthquakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beyabanaki, S.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.
2013-12-01
Earthquake- triggered landslides are one of the most important natural hazards that often result in serious structural damage and loss of life. They are widely studied by several researchers. However, less attention has been focused on soil water content. Although the effect of water content has been widely studied for rainfall- triggered landslides [1], much less attention has been given to it for stability analysis of earthquake- triggered landslides. We developed a combined hydrology and stability model to investigate effect of soil water content on earthquake-triggered landslides. For this purpose, Bishop's method is used to do the slope stability analysis and Richard's equation is employed to model infiltration. Bishop's method is one the most widely methods used for analyzing stability of slopes [2]. Earthquake acceleration coefficient (EAC) is also considered in the model to analyze the effect of earthquake on slope stability. Also, this model is able to automatically determine geometry of the potential landslide. In this study, slopes with different initial water contents are simulated. First, the simulation is performed in the case of earthquake only with different EACs and water contents. As shown in Fig. 1, initial water content has a significant effect on factor of safety (FS). Greater initial water contents lead to less FS. This impact is more significant when EAC is small. Also, when initial water content is high, landslides can happen even with small earthquake accelerations. Moreover, in this study, effect of water content on geometry of landslides is investigated. For this purpose, different cases of landslides triggered by earthquakes only and both rainfall and earthquake for different initial water contents are simulated. The results show that water content has more significant effect on geometry of landslides triggered by rainfall than those triggered by an earthquake. Finally, effect of water content on landslides triggered by earthquakes during rainfall is investigated. In this study, after different durations of rainfall, an earthquake is applied to the model and the elapsed time in which the FS gets less than one obtains by trial and error. The results for different initial water contents and earthquake acceleration coefficients show that landslides can happen after shorter rainfall duration when water content is greater. If water content is high enough, the landslide occurs even without rainfall. References [1] Ray RL, Jacobs JM, de Alba P. Impact of unsaturated zone soil moisture and groundwater table on slope instability. J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 2010, 136(10):1448-1458. [2] Das B. Principles of Foundation Engineering. Stanford, Cengage Learning, 2011. Fig. 1. Effect of initial water content on FS for different EACs
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Kennedy, V.C.; Kendall, C.; Zellweger, G.W.; Wyerman, T.A.; Avanzino, R.J.
1986-01-01
The chemical and isotopic composition of rainfall and stream water was monitored during a storm in the Mattole River basin of northwestern California. About 250 mm of rain fell during 6 days (???80% within a 42 h period) in late January, 1972, following 24 days of little or no precipitation. River discharge near Petrolia increased from 22 m3 s-1 to a maximum of 1300 m3 s-1 while chloride and silica concentrations decreased only from 3.2 to 2.1 and 11.5 to 8.6 mgl-1, respectively. Meanwhile, the isotopic composition of the river changed from ??D = - 42???, ??180 = - 6.8??? and 40 tritium units (T.U.) to extreme values at highest flow of ??D = - 35???, ??180 = - 5.9??? and 25 T.U. in response to volume-weighted rainfall averaging ??D = - 19.5???, ??180 = - 3.1??? and 18 T.U. Despite much rainfall of a composition quite different from that of the prestorm river water, "buffering" processes in the watershed greatly restricted changes in the chemical and isotopic content of the river during storm runoff. Because of the physical and hydrologic characteristics of the watershed, major contributions of groundwater to stormflow are very unlikely. The large increase in dissolved chemical load observed at maximum river discharge required that extensive interaction with, and presumably penetration of, soils occurred within a few hours time. Such a large increase in chemical load also required subsurface stormflow throughout a high proportion of the watershed. Chemical and isotopic stabilization of stormflow is believed to be due mainly to displacement of prestorm soil water, with some effects on river chemistry due to rapid rain-soil interactions. The isotopic and chemical composition of prestorm soil moisture cannot readily be predicted a priori because of possible variability in rainfall composition, evaporation, and exchange with atmospheric moisture, nor can it be assumed that baseflow has a predictable relation to the chemical or isotopic composition of water displaced from soils during storms. Therefore, it seems inappropriate to draw conclusions as to the relative proportions of groundwater and rainfall in runoff from a particular storm based only on the average compositions of rainfall, stormflow, and prestorm river water, as has been done in most previous isotope hydrograph studies. Given the great variation in hydrology, topography, soil characteristics, rainfall intensity and quantity, etc. from place to place, the relative amount of overland flow, subsurface flow from the unsaturated zone and of groundwater in stormflow can vary greatly in time and space. ?? 1986.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.
2006-01-01
Landslides triggered by rainfall can possibly be foreseen in real time by jointly using rainfall intensity-duration thresholds and information related to land surface susceptibility. However, no system exists at either a national or a global scale to monitor or detect rainfall conditions that may trigger landslides due to the lack of extensive ground-based observing network in many parts of the world. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing technology and increasing availability of high-resolution geospatial products around the globe have provided an unprecedented opportunity for such a study. In this paper, a framework for developing an experimental real-time monitoring system to detect rainfall-triggered landslides is proposed by combining two necessary components: surface landslide susceptibility and a real-time space-based rainfall analysis system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.aov). First, a global landslide susceptibility map is derived from a combination of semi-static global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a GIs weighted linear combination approach. Second, an adjusted empirical relationship between rainfall intensity-duration and landslide occurrence is used to assess landslide risks at areas with high susceptibility. A major outcome of this work is the availability of a first-time global assessment of landslide risk, which is only possible because of the utilization of global satellite remote sensing products. This experimental system can be updated continuously due to the availability of new satellite remote sensing products. This proposed system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary efforts as recommended herein, bears the promise to grow many local landslide hazard analyses into a global decision-making support system for landslide disaster preparedness and risk mitigation activities across the world.
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Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho; Kyung-Ho, Kwon
2018-01-01
This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas. PMID:29547567
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High resolution land surface response of inland moving Indian monsoon depressions over Bay of Bengal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rajesh, P. V.; Pattnaik, S.
2016-05-01
During Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season, nearly about half of the monsoonal rainfall is brought inland by the low pressure systems called as Monsoon Depressions (MDs). These systems bear large amount of rainfall and frequently give copious amount of rainfall over land regions, therefore accurate forecast of these synoptic scale systems at short time scale can help in disaster management, flood relief, food safety. The goal of this study is to investigate, whether an accurate moisture-rainfall feedback from land surface can improve the prediction of inland moving MDs. High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) is used to generate improved land state .i.e. soil moisture and soil temperature profiles by means of NOAH-MP land-surface model. Validation of the model simulated basic atmospheric parameters at surface layer and troposphere reveals that the incursion of high resolution land state yields least Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) with a higher correlation coefficient and facilitates accurate depiction of MDs. Rainfall verification shows that HRLDAS simulations are spatially and quantitatively in more agreement with the observations and the improved surface characteristics could result in the realistic reproduction of the storm spatial structure, movement as well as intensity. These results signify the necessity of investigating more into the land surface-rainfall feedbacks through modifications in moisture flux convergence within the storm.
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Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho; Kyung-Ho, Kwon
2018-03-16
This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas.
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Precipitation Dynamics and Feedback mechanisms of the Arabian Desert
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burger, Roelof; Kucera, Paul; Piketh, Stuart; Axisa, Duncan; Chapman, Michael; Krauss, Terry; Ghulam, Ayman
2010-05-01
The subtropical Arabian desert extends across the entire Peninsula. The Arabian desert finds itself in the downward branch of the Hadley cell with persistent subsidence. This stabilizes the atmosphere and lowers the relative humidity. The result is a strongly capped convective boundary layer and an extremely dry mid troposphere. Most of the area experience very little rainfall, generally below 100 mm per year, resulting in the largest uninterrupted sand desert in the world. However, local factors such as an unbroken 1000 km escarpment along the Red Sea, rocky mountains between 2000 and 3000 m, and gravel plains cut by wadis, causes micro climates with significant altered precipitation characteristics. Altitude oases with annual rainfall between 200 mm and 500 mm are found on the Asir mountains in the south west and over the Jebel Akdhar mountains on the Gulf coast of Oman. This region receives most of its rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere summer driven by a monsoon trough and the ITCZ. During summer, moist surface winds from the Red Sea converges with dry easterlies triggering convection along the Asir escarpment on a daily basis. Clear mornings grow into a layer of Altocumulus stratiformis cumulogenites by noon, which usually last until sunset. This cloud deck interacts with large severe convective cells which grow to the top of the troposphere by mid afternoon. The north experience a mediterranean climate with eastward propagating midlatitude cyclones causing wintertime rainfall. Characteristic cloud bands form over the northern interior. Vertically layered embedded convective cells that are not coupled with the surface propagate on north easterly tracks. This result in another oasis with annual rainfall exceeding 200 mm. Surface based convection causes isolated thunderstorms during spring and early summer, but cloud bases increase as the season progress until the evaporating downdraft causes dust storms. In-situ measurements, WRF model runs, radiosonde ascends, radar and satellite data are used to explore these dynamics and the associated feedback mechanisms of precipitation over the Arabian desert.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luitel, Beda; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.
2018-01-01
The goal of this study is the evaluation of the skill of five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)] in forecasting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). Analyses focus on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the 2007-2012 period. As reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We consider forecast lead-times up to five days. To benchmark the skill of these models, we consider rainfall estimates from one radar-based (Stage IV) and four satellite-based [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH)] rainfall products. Daily and storm total rainfall fields from each of these remote sensing products are compared to the reference data to obtain information about the range of errors we can expect from "observational data." The skill of the NWP models is quantified: (1) by visual examination of the distribution of the errors in storm total rainfall for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution; (2) relative to climatology at the daily scale. Considering these skill metrics, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead-times up to 48 h, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.
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Extreme rainfall-induced landslide changes based on landslide susceptibility in China, 1998-2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Weiyue; Liu, Chun; Hong, Yang
2017-04-01
Nowadays, landslide has been one of the most frequent and seriously widespread natural hazards all over the world. Rainfall, especially heavy rainfall is a trigger to cause the landslide occurrence, by increasing soil pore water pressures. In China, rainfall-induced landslides have risen up over to 90% of the total number. Rainfall events sometimes generate a trend of extremelization named rainfall extremes that induce the slope failure suddenly and severely. This study shows a method to simulate the rainfall-induced landslide spatio-temporal distribution on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index. First, the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced. We set the values of the index to the range between 0 and 1. Second, we collected TRMM 3B42 precipitation products spanning the years 1998-2015 and extracted the daily rainfall events greater than 50mm/day as extreme rainfall. Most of the rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours. The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate extreme rainfall-induced landslide distribution and illustrate the changes in 17 years. This study shows a useful tool to be part of rainfall-induced landslide simulation methodology for landslide early warning.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Devoli, Graziella; Mengistu, Zelalem T.; Elo, Christoffer A.; Boje, Søren; Rønning, Snorre S.; Engeland, Kolbjørn; Lussana, Cristian
2017-04-01
The Norwegian flood- and landslide forecasting service at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) (www.varsom.no), has issued flood forecasts since 1989, and since 2013 the occurrence of many landslides events at regional level, due either to severe storms or intense snow melting, has been predicted. High intensity and short duration (less than 1 hour) rainfalls may cause sudden and abundant runoff that can entrain large quantities of loose sediments and originate debris flows. Intense convective rainstorms often develop quickly, especially during summer, and they are difficult to forecast and even to observe with a standard (synoptic) network of precipitation gauges. In those cases, the forecaster on duty can send warning messages for a very large area (encompassing many counties and many municipalities), because of the large spatial uncertainty of the prognoses and amount of rain. A standard sentence in the warning message is always included, recommending to the population to monitor the evolution of the rainstorm with weather radar products, which are available on institutional websites. In other cases, especially when the convective rainstorm is spatially confined in a small area and highly uncertain, the forecaster may choose to not issue any warning. The first situation yields false alarms for some areas, while the second situation could result in a missing event, if a landslide actually occurs. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET) and NVE are working on a project to further promote the use of radar-derived products in landslides and flood forecasting. In this study, we focus on the description of a case study to present the potential of MET-NVE collaboration on the topic. As a case study, we have chosen a short-lived rainstorm occurred on June 2nd, 2016 in Motland (Rogaland county, Southern Norway), which had triggered 2 debris flows that were not forecasted. Land- and satellite-based weather radar and lighting data were used to analyse and recreate the triggering conditions for these events. The closest rain gauges in the area show very low rain intensity that cannot explain the initiation of the landslides. This is in disagreement with the eye-witness that observed intense and very local showers. The analysis of rainfall intensity estimated by both land-based and satellite-based (IMERG) radar data confirms the eye-witness observations, and it results in significantly higher values for the areas where the debris flows were triggered, if compared to precipitation interpolated from gauge observations. This was also supported by discharge responses from three small catchments in the area. Our results indicates that weather radar and lighting data are useful complements to the traditional analysis of landslide events made only by means of gauges, moreover they can be used: a) in back analyses on rainfall and landslide events in order to improve landslide thresholds; b) has a potential to assist in now-casting operations as supporting tool of a regional warning, especially in summer season, and radar prediction can be used in the proximate hour to see the storm development.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Doan, M. L.; Bièvre, G.; Jongmans, D.; Helmstetter, A.; Radiguet, M.
2016-12-01
The Avignonet landslide is an active clay landslide near Grenoble, France, and therefore one of the monitored site of OMIV observatory. Previous geophysical investigation, including borehole drilling and surface geophysics proved that the landslide deformation is accommodated by several localized shear zones. The shallowest shear zone is about 5 m deep and extends over 100 m. Several sensors monitor the landslide. They record several precursors prior to a major disturbance of the landslide in autumn 2012, that affects all sensors in the landslide for several months. After major rainfalls, the two piezometers located near the 5 m deep interface got larger impulsional response to rainfall. The moderate rainfalls of Oct 26th caused the hydraulic head both reached a plateau before experiencing a sudden change, triggered by the small rainfall of Oct 31st. It's not the bigger rainfall that induced the disturbance. It was not the first rainfall neither.Other sensors suggest that the destabilization of the landslide was progressive. Spontaneous potential sensors regularly spaced within the 100 m wide sensors begin to separate after Oct 28th, suggesting a landslide wide precursor. Repeated microseismic events, of high frequency, suggesting a local origin, are more frequent. Their occurrence peaks after the small rainfall of Oct 29th and again on Oct 31st, before the rainfall that triggered the disturbance. They stop at the same time as sudden change in piezometric data. Despite the lack of displacement sensor, it is assumed that the 5 m deep shear zone slipped on Oct 31st, since it affects the piezometer sampling this interface. The data shows a progressive path towards destabilization. Especially, triggering of the landslide disturbances is associated to the cumulative effect of seismic activity and rainfall, even minor. This suggests a hydromechanical process.
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A stationary criterion to identify the duration of efficient rainfalls to trigger shallow landslide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vessia, G.; Parise, M.
2012-04-01
Even though rainfall is considered a well known trigger of natural slope instability, its effective role in initiating landsliding phenomena cannot be easily distinguished due to many time- and space- variable interactions among several factors (i.e. slope geometry, mechanical and hydraulic characters of superficial layers and the basin, etc.). A common approach to relate rainfall to the onset of shallow landslides is to plot effective rainfall intensity vs duration to draw intensity threshold lines. Since the earliest work by Caine (1980) on this topic, several researchers have tried to establish intensity thresholds by means of deterministic and probabilistic approaches from a number of worldwide and regional rainfall-landslide inventories. With respect to this intensity-duration threshold approach, information about rainfall-induced landslides are generally collected from chronicles or historical landslide time series, whilst no data about the hydraulic and geometric features of soils and rocks involved into the natural slope instability is commonly taken into account. On the contrary, rainfall heights at different time lag (even every 30 min) are available at different stations by rain gauges. As rain gauge measurements are concerned, these can suffer many problems such as temporary saturation, temporary lack of data transmission and anomalous geographical distribution of the rainfall. Recently, satellite data have been employed to quantify the rainfall event related to landslide occurrence but their correlation to the effective rainfall height at a site is not guaranteed yet. So far, rain gauge measures still represent the most used option. Moreover, the physical simplification introduced by such "rainfall based" approach on landslide prediction can be accepted due to the assumption that only shallow landslides are considered for drawing a regional intensity-duration threshold from the considered data. Starting from the above considerations, and within the framework of a nationwide project by CNR-IRPI, under funds from the National Civil Department, the authors propose in this article a new criterion to identify from rain gauge measures the duration of the rainfalls triggering shallow landslides. The new criterion represents an attempt to identify the duration of the "effective rainfall event" responsible for the landslide occurrence, as reported by newspaper clips and/or in real time web newspapers. At this regard, antecedent precipitations are not taken into account, since the model considers only that amount of rainfall that effectively triggers the slope failure. The model analyses the hourly rainfall time series for at least one month before occurrence of the shallow landslide, using a historical landslide archive covering the time range between 2002 and 2011 in the Lazio Region, central Italy. This archive was obtained by a procedure consisting of the following steps: i) critical scrutiny of chronicles, ii) identification of the landslide site, and iii) retrieval of the rainfall data from the nearest rain gauge station within the pluviometric network provided by the National Department of Civil Protection. The proposed method, for each reported landslide, uses the cumulative function of the rainfall heights and rainfall intensity calculated for different time lag. Then, in order to identify the beginning of the effective rainfall event, two conditions have to be satisfied: (1) the difference in rainfall intensity between two adjacent windows must be very low, and (2) the time series of lack of rainfall must be stationary. When these conditions are met, the initial time of the efficient rainfall necessary to trigger the landslide is established. Such criterion is statistically based according to the rainfall time distribution only. No assumption is needed on the probabilistic distributions of time series of rain/not rain. Such approach has been successfully applied to medium-to-long rainfalls, for which rain/not rain datasets are statistically significant. Very short rainfall durations (i.e. a few hours), due to the small number of data, are not suitable to this approach, but, on the other hand, their onset is generally easily recognizable by visual inspection of the height pluviometric trends.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garnica-Peña, Ricardo; Murillo-García, Franny; Alcántara-Ayala, Irasema
2014-05-01
The impact of disasters associated with mass movement processes has increased in the past decades. Either triggered by earthquakes, volcanic activity or rainfall, mass movement processes have affected people, infrastructure, economic activities and the environment in different parts of the world. Extensive damage is particularly linked to rainfall induced landslides due to the occurrence of tropical storms, hurricanes, and the combination of different meteorological phenomenon on exposed vulnerable communities. Therefore, landslide susceptibility analysis, hazard and risk assessments are considered as significant mechanisms to lessen the impact of disasters. Ideally, these procedures ought to be carried out before disasters take place. However, under intense or persistent periods of rainfall, the evaluation of potentially unstable slopes becomes a critical issue. Such evaluations are constrained by the availability of resources, capabilities and scientific and technological tools. Among them, remote sensing has proved to be a valuable tool to evaluate areas affected by mass movement processes during the post-disaster stage. Nonetheless, the high cost of imagery acquisition inhibits their wide use. High resolution topography field surveys consequently, turn out to be an essential approach to address landslide evaluation needs. In this work, we present the evaluation and mapping of a series of mass movement processes induced by hurricane Ingrid in September, 2013, in Teziutlán, Puebla, México, a municipality situated 265 km Northeast of Mexico City. Geologically, Teziutlán is characterised by the presence, in the North, of siltstones and conglomerates of the Middle Jurassic, whereas the central and Southern sectors consist of volcanic deposits of various types: andesitic tuffs of Tertiary age, and basalts, rhyolitic tuffs and ignimbrites from the Quaternary. Major relief structures are formed by the accumulation of volcanic material; lava domes, partially buried volcanic cones, and slopes of pyroclastic deposits. Additionally, there are mountains and elevations of metamorphic and intrusive origin. The predominant hillslope materials in Teziutlán are poorly consolidated pyroclastic flows that favour rapid water saturation and enhance slope instability. Rainfall induced landslides in this region are not uncommon. Their consequences were particularly severe in the years 1999, 2005 and 2013. Rainfall derived from hurricane Ingrid in September, 2013, triggered 41 landslides on populated areas of Teziutlán, and involved 3 human losses and the evacuation of 139 people. Reoccurrence of landsliding in this area, where vulnerability levels of communities is high, certainly implies the need of establishing strategies for disaster risk reduction, among which, the use of terrestrial LIDAR can be regarded as a swift mechanism for landslide susceptibility, hazard and disaster risk assessments.
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Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Larsen, Matthew C.; Eaton, L. Scott; Morgan, Benjamin A.; Blair, J. Luke
2002-01-01
Heavy rainfall from the storm of December 14?16, 1999, triggered thousands of shallow landslides on steep slopes of the Sierra de Avila north of Caracas, Venezuela, and caused flooding and massive debris flows in the channels of major drainages that severely damaged coastal communities along the Caribbean Sea. Within this region we characterized geologic conditions where landslides initiated on hillsides and examined the texture of debris-flow deposits in the channels of nine drainages. In one of the most severely damaged areas on a highly developed alluvial fan at Caraballeda, we measured debris-flow deposits that ranged up to 5 meters (m) in thickness, inundating structures and roads over a large portion of the fan. Boulders up to 5 m long were carried along by the flows, impacted structures causing serious damage, and were deposited on the fan. Using field measurements and comparing pre-event and post-event topography from aerial photographs, we determined the volume of debris-flow and flood deposition on the fan to be about 2 million cubic meters. The total volume of material transported and deposited by landslides throughout the Vargas region ranks this as one of the most severe historical erosional events worldwide.
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Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina)
Stein, Ariel F.
2016-01-01
Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic “fluffy” surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons. PMID:27258088
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Outlaw, George S.; Hoos, Anne B.; Pankey, John T.
1994-01-01
Rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data were collected furing storm conditions at five urban watersheds in Nashville, Tennessee. These data can be used to build a database for developing predictive models of the relations between storm- water quality and land use, storm characteristics, and seasonal variations. The primary land and mix of land uses was different for each watershed. Stormwater samples were collected during three storms at each watershed and analyzed for selected volatile, acidic and base/neutral organic compounds; organic pesticides; trace metals; conventional pollutants; and several physical properties. Storm loads were computed for all constituents and properties with event mean concentration above the minimum reporting level. None of the samples con- tained acidic organic compounds at concentrations above the minimum reporting levels. Several constituents in each of the other categories, however, were present at concentrations above the minimum reporting level. For 21 of these constituents, water-quality criteria have been pro- mulgated by the State of Tennessee. For only 8 of the 21 did the value exceed the most restrictive of the criteria: pyrene, dieldrin, and mercury concen- trations and counts of fecal coliform exceeded the criteria for recreational use, copper and zinc concentrations and pH value exceeded the criteria for fish and aquatic life, and lead concentrations exceeded the criteria for domestic supply.
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Bucher, Enrique H; Stein, Ariel F
2016-01-01
Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.
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Hillslope threshold response to rainfall: (1) a field based forensic approach
Chris B. Graham; Ross A. Woods; Jeffrey J. McDonnell
2010-01-01
Hillslope threshold response to storm rainfall is poorly understood. Basic questions regarding the type, location, and flow dynamics of lateral, subsurface flow remain unanswered, even at our most intensively studied field sites. Here we apply a forensic approach where we combined irrigation and excavation experiments at the well studied Maimai hillslope to determine...
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Mesoscale features of urban rainfall enhancement
F. A. Huff
1977-01-01
Analyses of data from the first 4 years of a 5-year research project at St. Louis indicate a substantial enhancement of summer rainfall downwind of the urban-industrial complex. This anomaly appears to be caused primarily by the intensification of naturally occurring storm systems through the addition of heat and raindrop nuclei from the urban area. Most of the...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Adler, David; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Huffman, George
2012-01-01
It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.
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The CI-Flow Project: A System for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea
2011-11-01
round and may be applied to all types of coastal storms , including intense cool- season extratropical cyclones (i.e., nor’easters). In addition...associated with waves, tides, storm surge, rivers, and rainfall, including interactions at the tidal/surge interface Within this project, Cl-FLOW addresses...presented for Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Earl (20I0), and Tropical Storm Nicole (2010) for the Tar -Pamlico and Neuse River basins of North
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1987-03-01
Simulator was similar to the original rotating disk-type rainfall simulator but had several important design modifications ( Westerdahl and Skogerboe...exist- ing vegetation on the soil surface ( Westerdahl and Skogerboe 1982). A multiple-peaked natural storm event was selected from field data and pro... Westerdahl and Skogerboe 1982) and has been used as a standard storm event for comparison to natural storm events (Laws and Parsons 1943). Similar
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Inter-Comparison of CHARM Data and WSR-88D Storm Integrated Rainfall
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jedlovec, Gary J.; Meyer, Paul J.; Guillory, Anthony R.; Stellman, Keith; Limaye, Ashutosh; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
A localized precipitation network has been established over a 4000 sq km region of northern Alabama in support of local weather and climate research at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) in Huntsville. This Cooperative Huntsville-Area Rainfall Measurement (CHARM) network is comprised of over 80 volunteers who manually take daily rainfall measurements from 85 sites. The network also incorporates 20 automated gauges that report data at 1-5 minute intervals on a 24 h a day basis. The average spacing of the gauges in the network is about 6 kin, however coverage in some regions benefit from gauges every 1-2 km. The 24 h rainfall totals from the CHARM network have been used to validate Stage III rainfall estimates of daily and storm totals derived from the WSR-88D radars that cover northern Alabama. The Stage III rainfall product is produced by the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) in support of their daily forecast operations. The intercomparisons between the local rain gauge and the radar estimates have been useful to understand the accuracy and utility of the Stage III data. Recently, the Stage III and CHARM rainfall measurements have been combined to produce an hourly rainfall dataset at each CHARM observation site. The procedure matches each CHARM site with a time sequence of Stage III radar estimates of precipitation. Hourly stage III rainfall estimates were used to partition the rain gauge values to the time interval over which they occurred. The new hourly rain gauge dataset is validated at selected points where 1-5 minute rainfall measurements have been made. This procedure greatly enhances the utility of the CHARM data for local weather and hydrologic modeling studies. The conference paper will present highlights of the Stage III intercomparison and some examples of the combined radar / rain gauge product demonstrating its accuracy and utility in deriving an hourly rainfall product from the 24 h CHARM totals.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Guan-Wei
2017-04-01
Understanding the rainfall condition which triggers mass moment on hillslope is the key to forecast rainfall-induced slope hazards, and the exact time of landslide occurrence is one of the basic information for rainfall statistics. In the study, we focused on large-scale landslides (LSLs) with disturbed area larger than 10 ha and conducted a string of studies including the recognition of landslide-induced ground motions and the analyses of different terms of rainfall thresholds. More than 10 heavy typhoons during the periods of 2005-2014 in Taiwan induced more than hundreds of LSLs and provided the opportunity to characterize the rainfall conditions which trigger LSLs. A total of 101 landslide-induced seismic signals were identified from the records of Taiwan seismic network. These signals exposed the occurrence time of landslide to assess rainfall conditions. Rainfall analyses showed that LSLs occurred when cumulative rainfall exceeded 500 mm. The results of rainfall-threshold analyses revealed that it is difficult to distinct LSLs from small-scale landslides (SSLs) by the I-D and R-D methods, but the I-R method can achieve the discrimination. Besides, an enhanced three-factor threshold considering deep water content was proposed as the rainfall threshold for LSLs.
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Young, Stacie T.M.; Jamison, Marcael T.J.
2007-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. This program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream. For this program, rainfall data were collected at two stations, continuous streamflow data at three stations, and water-quality data at five stations, which include the two continuous streamflow stations. This report summarizes rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2006 and June 30, 2007. A total of 13 samples was collected over two storms during July 1, 2006 to June 30, 2007. The goal was to collect grab samples nearly simultaneously at all five stations and flow-weighted time-composite samples at the three stations equipped with automatic samplers. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). Additionally, grab samples were analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Quality-assurance/quality-control samples were also collected during storms and during routine maintenance to verify analytical procedures and check the effectiveness of equipment-cleaning procedures.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lahet, Florence; Stramski, Dariusz
2007-09-01
Water-leaving radiance data obtained from MODIS-Aqua satellite images at spatial resolution of 250 m (band 1 at 645 nm) and 500 m (band 4 at 555 nm) were used to analyze the correlation between plume area and rainfall during strong storm events in coastal waters of Southern California. Our study is focused on the area between Point Loma and the US-Mexican border in San Diego, which is influenced by terrigenous input of particulate and dissolved materials from San Diego and Tijuana watersheds and non-point sources along the shore. For several events of intense rainstorms that occurred in the winter of 2004-2005, we carried out a correlational analysis between the satellite-derived plume area and rainfall parameters. We examined several rainfall parameters and methods for the estimation of plume area. We identified the optimal threshold values of satellite-derived normalized water-leaving radiances at 645 nm and 555 nm for distinguishing the plume from ambient ocean waters. The satellite-derived plume size showed high correlation with the amount of precipitated water accumulated during storm event over the San Diego and Tijuana watersheds. Our results support the potential of ocean color imagery with relatively high spatial resolution for the study of turbid plumes in the coastal ocean.
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2010-07-01
September and Typhoon Jangmi two weeks later. These storms were both distinguished by especially large maximum rainfall accumulations, par- ticularly...TCS08 and produced as much rainfall as Sinlaku and Jangmi combined. 2. MODEL SETUP Numerical simulations for these events were per- formed using a...end result was record rainfall at many locations. The highest ob- served total was 1611 mm (63.43 in), but many locations received in excess of 1000 mm
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Characterization of Mediterranean hail-bearing storms using an operational polarimetric X-band radar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vulpiani, G.; Baldini, L.; Roberto, N.
2015-07-01
This work documents the fruitul use of X-band radar observations for the monitoring of severe storms in an operational framework. More specifically, a couple of severe hail-bearing Mediterranean storms occurred in 2013 in southern Italy, flooding two important cities of Sicily, are described in terms of their polarimetric radar signatures and retrieved rainfall fields. It is used the X-band dual-polarization radar operating inside the Catania airport (Sicily, Italy), managed by the Italian Department of Civil Protection. A suitable processing is applied to X-band radar measurements. The crucial procedural step relies on the differential phase processing based on an iterative approach that uses a very short-length (1 km) moving window allowing to properly catch the observed high radial gradients of the differential phase. The parameterization of the attenuation correction algorithm, which use the reconstructed differential phase shift, is derived from electromagnetic simulations based on 3 years of DSD observations collected in Rome (Italy). A Fuzzy Logic hydrometeor classification algorithm was also adopted to support the analysis of the storm characteristics. The precipitation fields amount were reconstructed using a combined polarimetric rainfall algorithm based on reflectivity and specific differential phase. The first considered storm was observed on the 21 February, when a winter convective system, originated in the Tyrrhenian sea, hit only marginally the central-eastern coastline of Sicily causing the flash-flood of Catania. Due to the optimal radar location (the system is located at just few kilometers from the city center), it was possible to well retrieve the storm characteristics, including the amount of rainfall field at ground. Extemporaneous signal extinction, caused by close-range hail core causing significant differential phase shift in very short range path, is documented. The second storm, occurred on 21 August 2013, is a summer mesoscale convective system originated by the temperature gradient between sea and land surface, lasted a few hours and eventually flooded the city of Siracusa. The undergoing physical process, including the storm dynamics, is inferred by analysing the vertical sections of the polarimetric radar measurements. The high registered precipitation amount was fairly well reconstructed even though with a trend to underestimation at increasing distances. Several episodes of signal extinction clearly manifested during the mature stage of the observed supercell.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gallus, William; Parodi, Antonio; Miglietta, Marcello; Maugeri, Maurizio
2017-04-01
As the global climate has warmed in recent decades, interest has grown in the impacts on extreme events associated with thunderstorms such as tornadoes and intense rainfall that can cause flash flooding. Because warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to contain larger values of water vapor, it is generally accepted that short-term rainfall may become more intense in a future warmer climate. Regarding tornadoes, it is more difficult to say what might happen since although increased temperatures and humidity in the lowest part of the troposphere should increase thermodynamic instability, allowing for stronger thunderstorm updrafts, vertical wind shear necessary for storm-scale rotation may decrease as the pole to equator temperature gradient weakens. The Mediterranean Sea is an important source for moisture that fuels thunderstorms in Italy, and it has been warming faster than most water bodies in recent decades. The present study uses three methods to gain preliminary insight into the role that the warming Mediterranean may have on tornadoes and thunderstorms with intense rainfall in Italy. First, a historical archive of Italian tornadoes has been updated for the 1990s, and it will be used along with other data from the European Severe Weather Database to discuss possible trends in tornado occurrence. Second, convection-allowing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been performed for three extreme events to examine sensitivity to both the sea surface temperatures and other model parameters. These events include a flash flood-producing storm event near Milan, a non-tornadic severe hail event in far northeastern Italy, and the Mira EF-4 tornado of July 2015. Sensitivities in rainfall amount, radar reflectivity and storm structure, and storm rotation will be discussed. Finally, changes in the frequency of intense mesoscale convective system events in and near the Ligurian Sea, inferred from the presence of strong convergence lines in EXPRESS-Hydro regional climate model output, will be examined.
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Topical cyclone rainfall characteristics as determined from a satellite passive microwave radiometer
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rodgers, E. B.; Adler, R. F.
1979-01-01
Data from the Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR-5) were used to calculate latent heat release and other rainfall parameters for over 70 satellite observations of 21 tropical cyclones in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. The results indicate that the ESMR-5 measurements can be useful in determining the rainfall characteristics of these storms and appear to be potentially useful in monitoring as well as predicting their intensity. The ESMR-5 derived total tropical cyclone rainfall estimates agree favorably with previous estimates for both the disturbance and typhoon stages. The mean typhoon rainfall rate (1.9 mm h(-1)) is approximately twice that of disturbances (1.1 mm h(-1)).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumbier, Kristian; Carvalho, Rafael C.; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Woodroffe, Colin D.
2018-02-01
Many previous modelling studies have considered storm-tide and riverine flooding independently, even though joint-probability analysis highlighted significant dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme storm surges in estuarine environments. This study investigates compound flooding by quantifying horizontal and vertical differences in coastal flood risk estimates resulting from a separation of storm-tide and riverine flooding processes. We used an open-source version of the Delft3D model to simulate flood extent and inundation depth due to a storm event that occurred in June 2016 in the Shoalhaven Estuary, south-eastern Australia. Time series of observed water levels and discharge measurements are used to force model boundaries, whereas observational data such as satellite imagery, aerial photographs, tidal gauges and water level logger measurements are used to validate modelling results. The comparison of simulation results including and excluding riverine discharge demonstrated large differences in modelled flood extents and inundation depths. A flood risk assessment accounting only for storm-tide flooding would have underestimated the flood extent of the June 2016 storm event by 30 % (20.5 km2). Furthermore, inundation depths would have been underestimated on average by 0.34 m and by up to 1.5 m locally. We recommend considering storm-tide and riverine flooding processes jointly in estuaries with large catchment areas, which are known to have a quick response time to extreme rainfall. In addition, comparison of different boundary set-ups at the intermittent entrance in Shoalhaven Heads indicated that a permanent opening, in order to reduce exposure to riverine flooding, would increase tidal range and exposure to both storm-tide flooding and wave action.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Castellarin, A.; Montanari, A.; Brath, A.
2002-12-01
The study derives Regional Depth-Duration-Frequency (RDDF) equations for a wide region of northern-central Italy (37,200 km 2) by following an adaptation of the approach originally proposed by Alila [WRR, 36(7), 2000]. The proposed RDDF equations have a rather simple structure and allow an estimation of the design storm, defined as the rainfall depth expected for a given storm duration and recurrence interval, in any location of the study area for storm durations from 1 to 24 hours and for recurrence intervals up to 100 years. The reliability of the proposed RDDF equations represents the main concern of the study and it is assessed at two different levels. The first level considers the gauged sites and compares estimates of the design storm obtained with the RDDF equations with at-site estimates based upon the observed annual maximum series of rainfall depth and with design storm estimates resulting from a regional estimator recently developed for the study area through a Hierarchical Regional Approach (HRA) [Gabriele and Arnell, WRR, 27(6), 1991]. The second level performs a reliability assessment of the RDDF equations for ungauged sites by means of a jack-knife procedure. Using the HRA estimator as a reference term, the jack-knife procedure assesses the reliability of design storm estimates provided by the RDDF equations for a given location when dealing with the complete absence of pluviometric information. The results of the analysis show that the proposed RDDF equations represent practical and effective computational means for producing a first guess of the design storm at the available raingauges and reliable design storm estimates for ungauged locations. The first author gratefully acknowledges D.H. Burn for sponsoring the submission of the present abstract.
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Rainfall infiltration-induced landslides
Collins, Brian D.; Znidarcic, Dobroslav
2011-01-01
Unfavorable groundwater conditions are often the determining factor in triggering landslides. Whereas regional hydrogeology typically determines overall groundwater conditions, surficial rainfall infiltration into slopes also drives potential instability.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, M.; Wang, H.; Chen, Y.; Tang, G.; Hong, Z.; Zhang, K.; Hong, Y.
2017-12-01
Flash floods, one of the deadliest natural hazards worldwide due to their multidisciplinary nature, rank highly in terms of heavy damage and casualties. Such as in the United States, flash flood is the No.1 cause of death and the No. 2 most deadly weather-related hazard among all storm-related hazards, with approximately 100 lives lost each year. According to China Floods and Droughts Disasters Bullet in 2015 (http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/zgshzhgb), about 935 deaths per year on average were caused by flash floods from 2000 to 2015, accounting for 73 % of the fatalities due to floods. Therefore, significant efforts have been made toward understanding flash flood processes as well as modeling and forecasting them, it still remains challenging because of their short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This study advances the use of high-resolution Global Precipitation Measurement forecasts (GPMs), disaster data obtained from the government officials in 2011 and 2016, and the improved Distributed Flash Flood Guidance (DFFG) method combining the Distributed Hydrologic Model and Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. The objectives of this paper are (1) to examines changes in flash flood occurrence, (2) to estimate the effect of the rainfall spatial variability ,(2) to improve the lead time in flash floods warning and get the rainfall threshold, (3) to assess the DFFG method applicability in Dongchuan catchments, and (4) to yield the probabilistic information about the forecast hydrologic response that accounts for the locational uncertainties of the GPMs. Results indicate: (1) flash flood occurrence increased in the study region, (2) the occurrence of predicted flash floods show high sensitivity to total infiltration and soil water content, (3) the DFFG method is generally capable of making accurate predictions of flash flood events in terms of their locations and time of occurrence, and (4) the accumulative rainfall over a certain time span is an appropriate threshold for flash flood warnings. Finally, the article highlights the importance of accurately simulating the hydrological processes and high-resolution satellite rainfall data on the accurate forecasting of rainfall triggered flash flood events.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qin, H. P.; Yu, X. Y.; Khu, S. T.
2009-04-01
Many urban catchments in developing countries are undergoing fast economic growth, population expansion and land use/cover change. Due to the mixture of agricultural/industrial/residential land use or different urbanization level as well as lack of historical monitoring data in the developing area, storm-water runoff pollution modeling is faced with challenges of considerable spatial variations and data insufficiency. Shiyan Reservoir catchment is located in the rapidly urbanizing coastal region of Southeast China. It has six sub-catchments with largely different land use patterns and urbanization levels. A simple semi-distributed model was used to simulate the storm-water runoff pollution process during storm event in the catchment. The model adopted modified IHACRES model and exponential wash-off functions to describe storm-runoff and pollutant wash-off processes, respectively, in each of six sub-catchments. Temporary hydrological and water quality monitoring sites were set at the downstream section of each sub-catchment in Feb-May 2007, spanning non-rain and rain seasons. And the model was calibrated for storm-runoff and water quality data during two typical storm events with rainfall amount of 10mm/4hr and 73mm/5hr, respectively. The results indicated that the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients are greater than 0.65 and 0.55 respectively for storm-runoff model calibration and validation. However although NS coefficients can reach 0.7~0.9 for pollutant wash-off model calibration based on measured data in each storm event, the simulation data can not fit well with the measured data in model validation. According to field survey observation, many litters and residuals were found to distribute in disorder in some sub-catchments or their drainage systems and to instantaneously wash off into the surface water when the rainfall amount and intensity are large enough. In order to improve storm-water runoff pollution simulation in the catchment, the variations of pollutant source and wash off processes in different storm intensity should be consider in future monitoring and model development. Keywords: storm runoff; wash off; urbanization; catchment modeling; litter; residual
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Y.
2017-12-01
The rainfall associated with TCs making landfall over western Gulf Coast and Caribbean Sea Coast caused numerous fatalities and divesting damage, however, few studies have been done over these regions. This study examines spatial pattern of rain fields associated with TCs making landfall over western Gulf Coast and Caribbean Sea Coast during 1998-2015 through a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis of satellite-estimated rain rates. Regions of light rainfall (rain rate > 2.5 mm/h) and moderate rainfall (rain rate > 5.0 mm/h) during entire life cycle of each TC are converted into polygons and measurements are made of their area, dispersion and displacement during entire life cycle. The metric of dispersion is calculated for the entire rain field as defined by outlining light and moderate rain rates. The displacement to east and north is calculated by area weighted methods. There are three main objectives of this study. The first goal is to measure the area and spatial distribution of rain fields of TCs making landfall over the western Gulf and Caribbean Sea coastlines. We examine in which regions, the light and moderate rainfall area, dispersion and displacement of rainfall have higher values, and how they change during the entire TC life cycle. The second goal is to determine to determine which environmental conditions are associated with the spatial configuration of light and moderate rain rates. The conditions include storm intensity, motion direction and speed, total precipitable water and wind shear. Last, we determine the time that rainfall reaches land relative to the time that the storm's center makes landfall and durations of rainfall from TCs over land.
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Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.; Cannon, S.H.
2011-01-01
Debris flows often occur in burned steeplands of southern California, sometimes causing property damage and loss of life. In an effort to better understand the hydrologic controls on post-fire debris-flow initiation, timing and magnitude, we measured the flow stage, rainfall, channel bed pore fluid pressure and hillslope soil-moisture accompanying 24 debris flows recorded in five different watersheds burned in the 2009 Station and Jesusita Fires (San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains). The measurements show substantial differences in debris-flow dynamics between sites and between sequential events at the same site. Despite these differences, the timing and magnitude of all events were consistently associated with local peaks in short duration (< = 30 min) rainfall intensity. Overall, debris-flow stage was best cross-correlated with time series of 5-min rainfall intensity, and lagged the rainfall by an average of just 5 min. An index of debris-flow volume was also best correlated with short-duration rainfall intensity, but found to be poorly correlated with storm cumulative rainfall and hillslope soil water content. Post-event observations of erosion and slope stability modeling suggest that the debris flows initiated primarily by processes related to surface water runoff, rather than shallow landslides. By identifying the storm characteristics most closely associated with post-fire debris flows, these measurements provide valuable guidance for warning operations and important constraints for developing and testing models of post-fire debris flows. copyright. 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abancó, Clàudia; Hürlimann, Marcel; Moya, José
2014-05-01
Debris flows represent a risk to the society due to their high destructive power. Rainfall is the main debris-flow triggering factor. Rainfall thresholds are generally used for warning of debris flow occurrence in susceptible catchments. However, the efficiency of such thresholds for real time hazard assessment is often conditioned by many factors, such as: the location and number of the rain gauges used (both to define the thresholds, and for setting off warnings); the temporal and spatial evolution of rainfall's convective cells or the effect of snow cover melting. These factors affect the length of the warning time, which is of crucial importance for issuing alert messages or alarms to the people and infrastructures at risk. The Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees, Spain) is being monitored since 2009 by six stations recording information on initiation (4 stations) and flow detection and cinematic behaviour (2 stations). Until December 2013, 7 debris flows, 17 debris floods and 4 rockfalls have been recorded. The objectives of this work were: a) the definition of rainfall thresholds at two different rain gauges; b) the analysis of the infiltration patterns in order to define their potential use for warning systems and c) preliminary testing of rainfall thresholds' efficiency in terms of warning time, in this catchment. This last goal consisted in the comparison of the time elapsed between the rainfall threshold was exceeded and the event occurrence was detected by the stations at the channel area. The results suggest that the intensity-duration rainfall thresholds sometimes provide warning times which would be too short for an adequate reaction in the Rebaixader catchment (less than 10 minutes). The combination of such rainfall thresholds with infiltration measurements is useful to increase the warning time. This occurs especially in the events triggered in spring, when the snowmelt plays an important role in the event's triggering conditions. However, the effects of infiltration associated to the summer convective rainfalls are almost imperceptible; therefore their importance in warning systems decreases.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hasan, Mejs; Benninger, Larry
2017-05-01
The effect of storms on water quality in the Chesapeake Bay has been studied in a patchwork fashion at various sites for short periods of time. In this paper, we use a relationship between MODIS-Terra red light reflectance and total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations in order to develop a fourteen-year time period of TSS estimates during which effects of storms and land cover can be studied over a large portion of the Bay. Exponential fits were most appropriate, resulting in viable reflectance-TSS relationships for the five major Western Shore rivers and the Mainstem of the Bay. Other tributaries were less well-disposed for such relationships due to lack of a large range of TSS concentrations, shallow river beds, or low number of data points. Treating the entire Chesapeake as a single entity and modeling a single reflectance-TSS relationship for the entire estuary produced poorer models with less significance compared to treating each channel separately. Over 2800 rain events were studied in the Lower Western Shore between 2000 and 2014. We found some evidence that higher rainfall amounts correspond to a lower distribution of TSS concentrations 1 day following the event in forested watersheds. At rainfall events of <50 mm, maximum TSS within one day of the storm was highly variable, suggesting that rainfall amounts alone cannot explain variation in TSS levels. Finally, we found value in the use of prediction intervals around TSS estimates, a statistical procedure uncommonly used heretofore with satellite-based estimates but which can help to determine if results are significant or not.
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Zhang, Zhao; Fukushima, Takehiko; Onda, Yuichi; Mizugaki, Shigeru; Gomi, Takashi; Kosugi, Ken'ichirou; Hiramatsu, Shinya; Kitahara, Hikaru; Kuraji, Koichiro; Terajima, Tomomi; Matsushige, Kazuo; Tao, Fulu
2008-02-01
Forest areas have been identified as important sources of nonpoint pollution in Japan. The managers must estimate stormwater quality and quantities from forested watersheds to develop effective management strategies. Therefore, stormwater runoff loads and concentrations of 10 constituents (total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, PO(4)-P, dissolved total phosphorus, total phosphorus, NH(4)-N, NO(2)-N, NO(3)-N, dissolved total nitrogen, and total nitrogen) for 72 events across five regions (Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and Tokyo) were characterised. Most loads were significantly and positively correlated with stormwater variables (total event rainfall, event duration, and rainfall intensity), but most discharge-weighted event concentrations (DWECs) showed negative correlations with rainfall intensity. Mean water quality concentration during baseflow was correlated significantly with storm concentrations (r=0.41-0.77). Although all pollutant load equations showed high coefficients of determination (R(2)=0.55-0.80), no models predicted well pollutant concentrations, except those for the three N constituents (R(2)=0.59-0.67). Linear regressions to estimate stormwater concentrations and loads were greatly improved by regional grouping. The lower prediction capability of the concentration models for Mie, compared with the other four regions, indicated that other watershed or storm characteristics should be included in the prediction models. Significant differences among regions were found more frequently in concentrations than in loads for all constituents. Since baseflow conditions implied available pollutant sources for stormwater, the similar spatial characteristics of pollutant concentrations between baseflow and stormflow conditions were an important control for stormwater quality.
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Impervious surfaces and sewer pipe effects on stormwater runoff temperature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sabouri, F.; Gharabaghi, B.; Mahboubi, A. A.; McBean, E. A.
2013-10-01
The warming effect of the impervious surfaces in urban catchment areas and the cooling effect of underground storm sewer pipes on stormwater runoff temperature are assessed. Four urban residential catchment areas in the Cities of Guelph and Kitchener, Ontario, Canada were evaluated using a combination of runoff monitoring and modelling. The stormwater level and water temperature were monitored at 10 min interval at the inlet of the stormwater management ponds for three summers 2009, 2010 and 2011. The warming effect of the ponds is also studied, however discussed in detail in a separate paper. An artificial neural network (ANN) model for stormwater temperature was trained and validated using monitoring data. Stormwater runoff temperature was most sensitive to event mean temperature of the rainfall (EMTR) with a normalized sensitivity coefficient (Sn) of 1.257. Subsequent levels of sensitivity corresponded to the longest sewer pipe length (LPL), maximum rainfall intensity (MI), percent impervious cover (IMP), rainfall depth (R), initial asphalt temperature (AspT), pipe network density (PND), and rainfall duration (D), respectively. Percent impervious cover of the catchment area (IMP) was the key parameter that represented the warming effect of the paved surfaces; sensitivity analysis showed IMP increase from 20% to 50% resulted in runoff temperature increase by 3 °C. The longest storm sewer pipe length (LPL) and the storm sewer pipe network density (PND) are the two key parameters that control the cooling effect of the underground sewer system; sensitivity analysis showed LPL increase from 345 to 966 m, resulted in runoff temperature drop by 2.5 °C.
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Storms drive altitudinal migration in a tropical bird
Boyle, W. Alice; Norris, D. Ryan; Guglielmo, Christopher G.
2010-01-01
Although migration is a widespread and taxonomically diverse behaviour, the ecological factors shaping migratory behaviour are poorly understood. Like other montane taxa, many birds migrate along elevational gradients in the tropics. Forty years ago, Alexander Skutch postulated that severe storms could drive birds to migrate downhill. Here, we articulate a novel mechanism that could link storms to mortality risks via reductions in foraging time and provide, to our knowledge, the first tests of this hypothesis in the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera), a small partially migratory frugivore breeding on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica. As predicted, variation in rainfall was associated with plasma corticosterone levels, fat stores, plasma metabolites and haematocrit. By collecting data at high and low elevation sites simultaneously, we also found that high-elevation residents were more adversely affected by storms than low elevation migrants. These results, together with striking temporal capture patterns of altitudinal migrants relative to storms, provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence that weather-related risks incurred by species requiring high food intake rates can explain altitudinal migrations of tropical animals. These findings resolve conflicting evidence for and against food limitation being important in the evolution of this behaviour, and highlight how endogenous and exogenous processes influence life-history trade-offs made by individuals in the wild. Because seasonal storms are a defining characteristic of most tropical ecosystems and rainfall patterns will probably change in ensuing decades, these results have important implications for understanding the ecology, evolution and conservation of tropical animals. PMID:20375047
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Storms drive altitudinal migration in a tropical bird.
Boyle, W Alice; Norris, D Ryan; Guglielmo, Christopher G
2010-08-22
Although migration is a widespread and taxonomically diverse behaviour, the ecological factors shaping migratory behaviour are poorly understood. Like other montane taxa, many birds migrate along elevational gradients in the tropics. Forty years ago, Alexander Skutch postulated that severe storms could drive birds to migrate downhill. Here, we articulate a novel mechanism that could link storms to mortality risks via reductions in foraging time and provide, to our knowledge, the first tests of this hypothesis in the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera), a small partially migratory frugivore breeding on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica. As predicted, variation in rainfall was associated with plasma corticosterone levels, fat stores, plasma metabolites and haematocrit. By collecting data at high and low elevation sites simultaneously, we also found that high-elevation residents were more adversely affected by storms than low elevation migrants. These results, together with striking temporal capture patterns of altitudinal migrants relative to storms, provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence that weather-related risks incurred by species requiring high food intake rates can explain altitudinal migrations of tropical animals. These findings resolve conflicting evidence for and against food limitation being important in the evolution of this behaviour, and highlight how endogenous and exogenous processes influence life-history trade-offs made by individuals in the wild. Because seasonal storms are a defining characteristic of most tropical ecosystems and rainfall patterns will probably change in ensuing decades, these results have important implications for understanding the ecology, evolution and conservation of tropical animals.
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Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Quaresma, Ivânia
2017-04-01
Rainfall is one of the most important triggering factors for landslides occurrence worldwide. The relation between rainfall and landslide occurrence is complex and some approaches have been focus on the rainfall thresholds identification, i.e., rainfall critical values that when exceeded can initiate landslide activity. In line with these approaches, this work proposes and validates rainfall thresholds for the Lisbon region (Portugal), using a centenary landslide database associated with a centenary daily rainfall database. The main objectives of the work are the following: i) to compute antecedent rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression; ii) to define lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds; iii) to estimate the probability of critical rainfall conditions associated with landslide events; and iv) to assess the thresholds performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. In this study we consider the DISASTER database, which lists landslides that caused fatalities, injuries, missing people, evacuated and homeless people occurred in Portugal from 1865 to 2010. The DISASTER database was carried out exploring several Portuguese daily and weekly newspapers. Using the same newspaper sources, the DISASTER database was recently updated to include also the landslides that did not caused any human damage, which were also considered for this study. The daily rainfall data were collected at the Lisboa-Geofísico meteorological station. This station was selected considering the quality and completeness of the rainfall data, with records that started in 1864. The methodology adopted included the computation, for each landslide event, of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for different durations (1 to 90 consecutive days). In a second step, for each combination of rainfall quantity-duration, the return period was estimated using the Gumbel probability distribution. The pair (quantity-duration) with the highest return period was considered as the critical rainfall combination responsible for triggering the landslide event. Only events whose critical rainfall combinations have a return period above 3 years were included. This criterion reduces the likelihood of been included events whose triggering factor was other than rainfall. The rainfall quantity-duration threshold for the Lisbon region was firstly defined using the linear and potential regression. Considering that this threshold allow the existence of false negatives (i.e. events below the threshold) it was also identified the lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds. These limits were defined empirically by establishing the quantity-durations combinations bellow which no landslides were recorded (lower limit) and the quantity-durations combinations above which only landslides were recorded without any false positive occurrence (upper limit). The zone between the lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds was analysed using a probabilistic approach, defining the uncertainties of each rainfall critical conditions in the triggering of landslides. Finally, the performances of the thresholds obtained in this study were assessed using ROC metrics. This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [grant number PTDC/ATPGEO/1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. Sérgio Cruz Oliveira is a post-doc fellow of the FCT [grant number SFRH/BPD/85827/2012].
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Convective rainfall estimation from digital GOES-1 infrared data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sickler, G. L.; Thompson, A. H.
1979-01-01
An investigation was conducted to determine the feasibility of developing and objective technique for estimating convective rainfall from digital GOES-1 infrared data. The study area was a 240 km by 240 km box centered on College Station, Texas (Texas A and M University). The Scofield and Oliver (1977) rainfall estimation scheme was adapted and used with the digital geostationary satellite data. The concept of enhancement curves with respect to rainfall approximation is discussed. Raingage rainfall analyses and satellite-derived rainfall estimation analyses were compared. The correlation for the station data pairs (observed versus estimated rainfall amounts) for the convective portion of the storm was 0.92. It was demonstrated that a fairly accurate objective rainfall technique using digital geostationary infrared satellite data is feasible. The rawinsonde and some synoptic data that were used in this investigation came from NASA's Atmospheric Variability Experiment, AVE 7.
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Assimilation of Long-Range Lightning Data over the Pacific
2011-09-30
convective rainfall analyses over the Pacific, and (iii) to improve marine prediction of cyclogenesis of both tropical and extratropical cyclones through...data over the North Pacific Ocean, refine the relationships between lightning and storm hydrometeor characteristics, and assimilate lightning...unresolved storm -scale areas of deep convection over the data-sparse open oceans. Diabatic heating sources, especially latent heat release in deep
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Aspen clearcutting increases snowmelt and storm flow peaks in north central Minnesota
Elon S. Verry; Jeffrey R. Lewis; Kenneth N. Brooks
1983-01-01
Clearcutting aspen from the upland portion of an upland peatland watershed in north central Minnesota caused snowmelt peak discharge to increase 11 to 143 percent. Rainfall peak discharge size increased as much as 250 percent during the first two years after clearcutting, then decreased toward precutting levels in subsequent years. Storm flow volumes from rain during...
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Storm-scale dynamics of bacterial community composition in throughfall and stemflow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Stan, J. T., II; Teachey, M. E.; Pound, P.; Ottesen, E. A.
2017-12-01
Transport of bacteria between ecosystem spheres can significantly affect microbially-mediated biogeochemical processes. During rainfall, there is a large, temporally-concentrated exchange of bacteria between the forest phyllosphere and the pedosphere by rain dripping from canopy surfaces, as throughfall (TF), and draining to the stem, as stemflow (SF). Many phyllosphere bacteria possibly transported by TF and SF have been linked to important litter and soil processes (like cyanobacteria and actinobacteria). Despite this, no work has applied high throughput DNA sequencing to assess the community composition of bacteria transported by TF and SF. We characterized bacterial community composition for TF and SF from an epiphyte-laden (Tillandsia usneoides L., Spanish moss) southern live oak (Quercus virginiana) forest in southeastern Georgia (USA) to address two hypotheses: that bacterial community composition will differ between (1) TF and SF, and (2) TF sampled beneath bare and epiphyte-laden canopy. Variability in family-level bacterial abundance, Bray-Curtis dissimilarity, and Shannon diversity index was greater between storms than between net rainfall fluxes. In fact, TF and SF bacterial communities were relatively similar for individual storms and may be driven by pre-storm atmospheric deposition rather than the communities affixed to leaves, bark, and epiphyte surfaces.
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Breeding, Seth D.
1948-01-01
Floods occurred in Texas during, June, July, and November 1940 that exceeded known stages on many small streams and at a few places on the larger streams. Stages at several stream-gaging stations exceeded the maximum known at those places since the collection of daily records began. A storm, haying its axis generally on a north-south line from Cameron to Victoria and extending across the Brazos, Colorado, Lavaca, and Guadalupe River Basins, caused heavy rainfall over a large part of south-central Texas. The maximum recorded rain of 22.7 inches for the 2-day period June 29-30 occurred at Engle. Of this amount, 17.5 inches fell in the 12-hour period between 8 p.m. June 29, and 8 a.m. June 30. Light rains fell at a number of places on June 28, and additional light rains fell at many places within the area from July 1 to 4. During the period June 28 to July 4 more than 20 inches of rain fell over an area of 300 square miles, more than 15 inches over 1,920 square miles, and more than 10 inches over 5,100 square miles. The average annual rainfall for the area experiencing the heaviest rainfall during this storm is about 35 inches. Farming is largely confined to the fertile flood plains in much of the area subjected to the record-breaking floods in June and July. Therefore these floods, coming at the height of the growing season, caused severe losses to crops. Much damage was done also to highways and railways. The city of Hallettsville suffered the greatest damage of any urban area. The Lavaca River at that place reached a stage 8 feet higher than ever known before, drowned several people, destroyed many homes, and submerged almost the entire business district. The maximum discharge there was 93,100 second-feet from a drainage area of 101 square miles. Dry Creek near Smithville produced a maximum discharge of 1,879 second-feet from an area of 1.48 square miles and a runoff of 11.3 inches in a 2-day period from a rainfall of 19.5 inches. The area in the Colorado River Basin between Smithville and La Grange, amounting to 550 square miles, had an average rainfall of 19.3 inches, of which 11.5 inches appeared as runoff. The maximum discharge at La Grange was 182,000 second-feet, with much the greater part coming from below Smithville. This is probably a record-breaking flood for the area between Smithville and La Grange, but stages as much as 16 feet higher have occurred at La Grange. Heavy rainfall over the east half of Texas November 21-26 caused large floods in all streams in Texas east of the Guadalupe River. The maximum recorded rainfall for the 2-day period November 24-25 was 20.46 inches at Hempstead, of which 16.00 inches fell in 24 hours or less. The storm occurred during the period November 20-26, with the greater part of the rain falling November 23-25. During the period November 20-26, rainfall in Texas amounted to more than 15 inches over an area of 3,380 square miles, and 'to more than 10 inches over an area of 17,570 square miles. The average annual rainfall for the area in Texas experiencing more than 10 inches of rain during this storm ranges from 501 inches on the east border of the State to 35 inches near the west edge of the area. The study of this storm for the purposes of this report is limited to the San Jacinto River Basin, which had an average rainfall of 13.6 inches. This basin has an area of 2,791 square miles above the gaging station near Huffman and is typical in topographic and hydrologic features of much of eastern Texas. The stage reached at the gage near Huffman was about 1 foot higher than known before, the maximum discharge was 253,000 second-feet, and the runoff from the storm amounted to 8.8 inches. The November flood came after crops had been harvested, and its damage was mainly the destruction of highways and railways and the drowning of livestock. The storage reservoirs on the Colorado River located well upstream from the storm areas herein studied had very little effect on
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Rainfall Morphology in Semi-Tropical Convergence Zones
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shepherd, J. Marshall; Ferrier, Brad S.; Ray, Peter S.
2000-01-01
Central Florida is the ideal test laboratory for studying convergence zone-induced convection. The region regularly experiences sea breeze fronts and rainfall-induced outflow boundaries. The focus of this study is the common yet poorly-studied convergence zone established by the interaction of the sea breeze front and an outflow boundary. Previous studies have investigated mechanisms primarily affecting storm initiation by such convergence zones. Few have focused on rainfall morphology yet these storms contribute a significant amount precipitation to the annual rainfall budget. Low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture have both been shown to correlate with rainfall amounts in Florida. Using 2D and 3D numerical simulations, the roles of low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture in rainfall evolution are examined. The results indicate that time-averaged, vertical moisture flux (VMF) at the sea breeze front/outflow convergence zone is directly and linearly proportional to initial condensation rates. This proportionality establishes a similar relationship between VMF and initial rainfall. Vertical moisture flux, which encompasses depth and magnitude of convergence, is better correlated to initial rainfall production than surface moisture convergence. This extends early observational studies which linked rainfall in Florida to surface moisture convergence. The amount and distribution of mid-tropospheric moisture determines how rainfall associated with secondary cells develop. Rainfall amount and efficiency varied significantly over an observable range of relative humidities in the 850- 500 mb layer even though rainfall evolution was similar during the initial or "first-cell" period. Rainfall variability was attributed to drier mid-tropospheric environments inhibiting secondary cell development through entrainment effects. Observationally, 850-500 mb moisture structure exhibits wider variability than lower level moisture, which is virtually always present in Florida. A likely consequence of the variability in 850-500 moisture is a stronger statistical correlation to rainfall, which observational studies have noted. The study indicates that vertical moisture flux forcing at convergence zones is critical in determining rainfall in the initial stage of development but plays a decreasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. The mid-tropospheric moisture (e.g. environment) plays an increasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. This suggests the need to improve measurements of magnitude/depth of convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture distribution. It also highlights the need for better parameterization of entrainment and vertical moisture distribution in larger-scale models.
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Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA
Baum, R.L.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; Savage, W.Z.; Schulz, W.H.; Brien, D.L.; Chleborad, A.F.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.
2005-01-01
Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.
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A Strategy for a Parametric Flood Insurance Using Proxies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haraguchi, M.; Lall, U.
2017-12-01
Traditionally, the design of flood control infrastructure and flood plain zoning require the estimation of return periods, which have been calculated by river hydraulic models with rainfall-runoff models. However, this multi-step modeling process leads to significant uncertainty to assess inundation. In addition, land use change and changing climate alter the potential losses, as well as make the modeling results obsolete. For these reasons, there is a strong need to create parametric indexes for the financial risk transfer for large flood events, to enable rapid response and recovery. Hence, this study examines the possibility of developing a parametric flood index at the national or regional level in Asia, which can be quickly mobilized after catastrophic floods. Specifically, we compare a single trigger based on rainfall index with multiple triggers using rainfall and streamflow indices by conducting case studies in Bangladesh and Thailand. The proposed methodology is 1) selecting suitable indices of rainfall and streamflow (if available), 2) identifying trigger levels for specified return periods for losses using stepwise and logistic regressions, 3) measuring the performance of indices, and 4) deriving return periods of selected windows and trigger levels. Based on the methodology, actual trigger levels were identified for Bangladesh and Thailand. Models based on multiple triggers reduced basis risks, an inherent problem in an index insurance. The proposed parametric flood index can be applied to countries with similar geographic and meteorological characteristics, and serve as a promising method for ex-ante risk financing for developing countries. This work is intended to be a preliminary work supporting future work on pricing risk transfer mechanisms in ex-ante risk finance.
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Dong, Wenhao; Lin, Yanluan; Wright, Jonathon S.; Ming, Yi; Xie, Yuanyu; Wang, Bin; Luo, Yong; Huang, Wenyu; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Lei; Tian, Lide; Peng, Yiran; Xu, Fanghua
2016-01-01
Despite the importance of precipitation and moisture transport over the Tibetan Plateau for glacier mass balance, river runoff and local ecology, changes in these quantities remain highly uncertain and poorly understood. Here we use observational data and model simulations to explore the close relationship between summer rainfall variability over the southwestern Tibetan Plateau (SWTP) and that over central-eastern India (CEI), which exists despite the separation of these two regions by the Himalayas. We show that this relationship is maintained primarily by ‘up-and-over' moisture transport, in which hydrometeors and moisture are lifted by convective storms over CEI and the Himalayan foothills and then swept over the SWTP by the mid-tropospheric circulation, rather than by upslope flow over the Himalayas. Sensitivity simulations confirm the importance of up-and-over transport at event scales, and an objective storm classification indicates that this pathway accounts for approximately half of total summer rainfall over the SWTP. PMID:26948491
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hess, L.; Basso, B.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.
2015-12-01
In the coming century, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is expected to increase in many areas, especially in the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for hydrologic flow and nutrient losses, especially in agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters. We used a tracer experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns may affect the movement of water and solutes through an agricultural soil profile in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. Two rainfall patterns were created with 5m x 5m rainout shelters at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site in replicated plots with either conventional tillage or no-till management. Control rainfall treatments received water 3x per week, and extreme rainfall treatments received the same total amount of water but once every two weeks, to simulate less frequent but larger storms. In April 2015, potassium bromide (KBr) was added as a conservative tracer of water flow to all plots, and Br- concentrations in soil water at 1.2m depth were measured weekly from April through July. Soil water Br- concentrations increased and peaked more quickly under the extreme rainfall treatment, suggesting increased infiltration and solute transfer to depth compared to soils exposed to control rainfall patterns. Soil water Br- also increased and peaked more quickly in no-till than in conventional tillage treatments, indicating differences in flow paths between management systems. Soil moisture measured every 15 minutes at 10, 40, and 100cm depths corroborates tracer experiment results: rainfall events simulated in extreme rainfall treatments led to large increases in deep soil moisture, while the smaller rainfall events simulated under control conditions did not. Deep soil moisture in no-till treatments also increased sooner after water application as compared to in conventional soils. Our results suggest that exposure to more extreme rainfall patterns will likely increase infiltration depth and nutrient losses in agricultural soils. In particular, soils under no-till management, which leads to development of preferential flow paths, may be particularly vulnerable to vertical nutrient losses.
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Stormwater-runoff data for a commercial area, Broward County, Florida
Miller, Robert A.; Mattraw, H.C.; Hardee, Jack
1979-01-01
Rainfall, stormwater discharge, and water-quality data for rainfall and runoff are summarized for a commercial area in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Loads for 20 water-quality constituents were computed for runoff from 31 storms between May 1975 and June 1977. The basin of 20.4 acres contains a shopping center with adjacent parking, and is 97.9 percent impervious. (Woodard-USGS)
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Systematic Anomalies in Rainfall Intensity Estimates Over the Continental U.S.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Amitai, Eyal; Petersen, Walter Arthur; Llort, Xavier; Vasiloff, Steve
2010-01-01
Rainfall intensities during extreme events over the continental U.S. are compared for several advanced radar products. These products include: 1) TRMM spaceborne radar (PR) near surface estimates; 2) NOAA Next-Generation Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) very high-resolution (1 km) radar-only national mosaics (Q2); 3) very high-resolution instantaneous gauge adjusted radar national mosaics, which we have developed by applying gauge correction on the Q2 instantaneous radar-only products; and 4) several independent C-band dual-polarimetric radar-estimated rainfall samples collected with the ARMOR radar in northern Alabama. Though accumulated rainfall amounts are often similar, we find the satellite and the ground radar rain rate pdfs to be quite different. PR pdfs are shifted towards lower rain rates, implying a much larger stratiform/convective rain ratio than do ground radar products. The shift becomes more evident during strong continental convective storms and much less during tropical storms. Resolving the continental/maritime regime behavior and other large discrepancies between the products presents an important challenge. A challenge to improve our understanding of the source of the discrepancies, to determine the uncertainties of the estimates, and to improve remote-sensing estimates of precipitation in general.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fan, Linfeng; Lehmann, Peter; Or, Dani
2015-10-01
Evidence suggests that the sudden triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides is preceded by accumulation of local internal failures in the soil mantle before their abrupt coalescence into a landslide failure plane. The mechanical status of a hillslope at any given time reflects competition between local damage accumulated during antecedent rainfall events and rates of mechanical healing (e.g., rebonding of microcracks and root regrowth). This dynamic interplay between damage accumulation and healing rates determines the initial mechanical state for landslide modeling. We evaluated the roles of these dynamic processes on landslide characteristics and patterns using a hydromechanical landslide-triggering model for a sequence of rainfall scenarios. The progressive nature of soil failure was represented by the fiber bundle model formalism that considers threshold strength of mechanical bonds linking adjacent soil columns and bedrock. The antecedent damage induced by prior rainfall events was expressed by the fraction of broken fibers that gradually regain strength or mechanically heal at rates specific to soil and roots. Results indicate that antecedent damage accelerates landslide initiation relative to pristine (undamaged) hillslopes. The volumes of first triggered landslides increase with increasing antecedent damage; however, for heavily damaged hillslopes, landslide volumes tend to decrease. Elapsed time between rainfall events allows mechanical healing that reduces the effects of antecedent damage. This study proposed a quantitative framework for systematically incorporating hydromechanical loading history and information on precursor events (e.g., such as recorded by acoustic emissions) into shallow landslide hazard assessment.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Crow, W. T.; Chen, F.; Reichle, R. H.; Liu, Q.
2017-01-01
Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i.e., total stream flow divided by total rainfall accumulation in depth units) and pre-storm surface soil moisture estimates from a range of surface soil moisture data products. Results demonstrate that both satellite-based, L-band microwave radiometry and the application of land data assimilation techniques have significantly improved the utility of surface soil moisture data sets for forecasting stream flow response to future rainfall events.
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Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.
2007-01-01
Estimation of representative hydrographs from design storms, which are known as design hydrographs, provides for cost-effective, riskmitigated design of drainage structures such as bridges, culverts, roadways, and other infrastructure. During 2001?07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, investigated runoff hydrographs, design storms, unit hydrographs,and watershed-loss models to enhance design hydrograph estimation in Texas. Design hydrographs ideally should mimic the general volume, peak, and shape of observed runoff hydrographs. Design hydrographs commonly are estimated in part by unit hydrographs. A unit hydrograph is defined as the runoff hydrograph that results from a unit pulse of excess rainfall uniformly distributed over the watershed at a constant rate for a specific duration. A time-distributed, watershed-loss model is required for modeling by unit hydrographs. This report develops a specific time-distributed, watershed-loss model known as an initial-abstraction, constant-loss model. For this watershed-loss model, a watershed is conceptualized to have the capacity to store or abstract an absolute depth of rainfall at and near the beginning of a storm. Depths of total rainfall less than this initial abstraction do not produce runoff. The watershed also is conceptualized to have the capacity to remove rainfall at a constant rate (loss) after the initial abstraction is satisfied. Additional rainfall inputs after the initial abstraction is satisfied contribute to runoff if the rainfall rate (intensity) is larger than the constant loss. The initial abstraction, constant-loss model thus is a two-parameter model. The initial-abstraction, constant-loss model is investigated through detailed computational and statistical analysis of observed rainfall and runoff data for 92 USGS streamflow-gaging stations (watersheds) in Texas with contributing drainage areas from 0.26 to 166 square miles. The analysis is limited to a previously described, watershed-specific, gamma distribution model of the unit hydrograph. In particular, the initial-abstraction, constant-loss model is tuned to the gamma distribution model of the unit hydrograph. A complex computational analysis of observed rainfall and runoff for the 92 watersheds was done to determine, by storm, optimal values of initial abstraction and constant loss. Optimal parameter values for a given storm were defined as those values that produced a modeled runoff hydrograph with volume equal to the observed runoff hydrograph and also minimized the residual sum of squares of the two hydrographs. Subsequently, the means of the optimal parameters were computed on a watershed-specific basis. These means for each watershed are considered the most representative, are tabulated, and are used in further statistical analyses. Statistical analyses of watershed-specific, initial abstraction and constant loss include documentation of the distribution of each parameter using the generalized lambda distribution. The analyses show that watershed development has substantial influence on initial abstraction and limited influence on constant loss. The means and medians of the 92 watershed-specific parameters are tabulated with respect to watershed development; although they have considerable uncertainty, these parameters can be used for parameter prediction for ungaged watersheds. The statistical analyses of watershed-specific, initial abstraction and constant loss also include development of predictive procedures for estimation of each parameter for ungaged watersheds. Both regression equations and regression trees for estimation of initial abstraction and constant loss are provided. The watershed characteristics included in the regression analyses are (1) main-channel length, (2) a binary factor representing watershed development, (3) a binary factor representing watersheds with an abundance of rocky and thin-soiled terrain, and (4) curve numb
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Asquith, William H.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Roussel, Meghan C.
2011-01-01
Estimates of peak and time of peak streamflow for small watersheds (less than about 640 acres) in a suburban to urban, low-slope setting are needed for drainage design that is cost-effective and risk-mitigated. During 2007-10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Harris County Flood Control District and the Texas Department of Transportation, developed a method to estimate peak and time of peak streamflow from excess rainfall for 10- to 640-acre watersheds in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area. To develop the method, 24 watersheds in the study area with drainage areas less than about 3.5 square miles (2,240 acres) and with concomitant rainfall and runoff data were selected. The method is based on conjunctive analysis of rainfall and runoff data in the context of the unit hydrograph method and the rational method. For the unit hydrograph analysis, a gamma distribution model of unit hydrograph shape (a gamma unit hydrograph) was chosen and parameters estimated through matching of modeled peak and time of peak streamflow to observed values on a storm-by-storm basis. Watershed mean or watershed-specific values of peak and time to peak ("time to peak" is a parameter of the gamma unit hydrograph and is distinct from "time of peak") of the gamma unit hydrograph were computed. Two regression equations to estimate peak and time to peak of the gamma unit hydrograph that are based on watershed characteristics of drainage area and basin-development factor (BDF) were developed. For the rational method analysis, a lag time (time-R), volumetric runoff coefficient, and runoff coefficient were computed on a storm-by-storm basis. Watershed-specific values of these three metrics were computed. A regression equation to estimate time-R based on drainage area and BDF was developed. Overall arithmetic means of volumetric runoff coefficient (0.41 dimensionless) and runoff coefficient (0.25 dimensionless) for the 24 watersheds were used to express the rational method in terms of excess rainfall (the excess rational method). Both the unit hydrograph method and excess rational method are shown to provide similar estimates of peak and time of peak streamflow. The results from the two methods can be combined by using arithmetic means. A nomograph is provided that shows the respective relations between the arithmetic-mean peak and time of peak streamflow to drainage areas ranging from 10 to 640 acres. The nomograph also shows the respective relations for selected BDF ranging from undeveloped to fully developed conditions. The nomograph represents the peak streamflow for 1 inch of excess rainfall based on drainage area and BDF; the peak streamflow for design storms from the nomograph can be multiplied by the excess rainfall to estimate peak streamflow. Time of peak streamflow is readily obtained from the nomograph. Therefore, given excess rainfall values derived from watershed-loss models, which are beyond the scope of this report, the nomograph represents a method for estimating peak and time of peak streamflow for applicable watersheds in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, analysis of the relative influence of BDF on peak streamflow is provided, and the results indicate a 0:04log10 cubic feet per second change of peak streamflow per positive unit of change in BDF. This relative change can be used to adjust peak streamflow from the method or other hydrologic methods for a given BDF to other BDF values; example computations are provided.
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Von Guerard, Paul; Weiss, W.B.
1995-01-01
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that municipalities that have a population of 100,000 or greater obtain National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits to characterize the quality of their storm runoff. In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Springs City Engineering Division, began a study to characterize the water quality of storm runoff and to evaluate procedures for the estimation of storm-runoff loads, volume and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents. Precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality data were collected during 1992 at five sites in Colorado Springs. Thirty-five samples were collected, seven at each of the five sites. At each site, three samples were collected for permitting purposes; two of the samples were collected during rainfall runoff, and one sample was collected during snowmelt runoff. Four additional samples were collected at each site to obtain a large enough sample size to estimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents using linear-regression procedures developed using data from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP). Storm-water samples were analyzed for as many as 186 properties and constituents. The constituents measured include total-recoverable metals, vola-tile-organic compounds, acid-base/neutral organic compounds, and pesticides. Storm runoff sampled had large concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand. Chemical oxygen demand ranged from 100 to 830 milligrams per liter, and 5.-day biochemical oxygen demand ranged from 14 to 260 milligrams per liter. Total-organic carbon concentrations ranged from 18 to 240 milligrams per liter. The total-recoverable metals lead and zinc had the largest concentrations of the total-recoverable metals analyzed. Concentrations of lead ranged from 23 to 350 micrograms per liter, and concentrations of zinc ranged from 110 to 1,400 micrograms per liter. The data for 30 storms representing rainfall runoff from 5 drainage basins were used to develop single-storm local-regression models. The response variables, storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations were modeled using explanatory variables for climatic, physical, and land-use characteristics. The r2 for models that use ordinary least-squares regression ranged from 0.57 to 0.86 for storm-runoff loads and volume and from 0.25 to 0.63 for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Except for cadmium, standard errors of estimate ranged from 43 to 115 percent for storm- runoff loads and volume and from 35 to 66 percent for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Eleven of the 30 concentrations collected during rainfall runoff for total-recoverable cadmium were censored (less than) concentrations. Ordinary least-squares regression should not be used with censored data; however, censored data can be included with uncensored data using tobit regression. Standard errors of estimate for storm-runoff load and event-mean concentration for total-recoverable cadmium, computed using tobit regression, are 247 and 171 percent. Estimates from single-storm regional-regression models, developed from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program data base, were compared with observed storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations determined from samples collected in the study area. Single-storm regional-regression models tended to overestimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean con-centrations. Therefore, single-storm local- and regional-regression models were combined using model-adjustment procedures to take advantage of the strengths of both models while minimizing the deficiencies of each model. Procedures were used to develop single-stormregression equations that were adjusted using local data and estimates from single-storm regional-regression equations. Single-storm regression models developed using model- adjustment proce
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Lawler, D M; Petts, G E; Foster, I D L; Harper, S
2006-05-01
Turbidity is an important water quality variable, through its relation to light suppression, BOD impact, sediment-associated contaminant transport, and suspended sediment effects on organisms and habitats. Yet few published field investigations of wet-weather turbidity dynamics, through several individual and sequenced rainstorms in extremely urbanised headwater basins, have emerged. This paper aims to address this gap through a turbidity analysis of multiple storm events in spring 2001 in an urban headwater basin (57 km2) of the River Tame, central England, the most urbanised basin for its size in the UK ( approximately 42%). Data were collected at 15-min frequency at automated monitoring stations for rainfall, streamflow and six water quality variables (turbidity, EC, temperature, DO, pH, ammonia). Disturbance experiments also allowed estimates of bed sediment storage to be obtained. Six important and unusual features of the storm event turbidity response were apparent: (1) sluggish early turbidity response, followed by a turbidity 'rush'; (2) quasi-coincident flow and turbidity peaks; (3) anti-clockwise hysteresis in the discharge-turbidity relationship on all but one event, resulting from Falling-LImb Turbidity Extensions (FLITEs); (4) increases in peak turbidity levels through storm sequences; (5) initial micro-pulses (IMP) in turbidity; and (6) secondary turbidity peaks (STP) or 'turbidity shoulders' (TS). These features provided very little evidence of a true 'first-flush' effect: instead, substantial suspended solids transport continued right through the flow recessions, and little storm-event sediment exhaustion was evident. A new, dimensionless, hysteresis index, HI(mid), is developed to quantify the magnitude and direction of hysteresis in a simple, clear, direct and intuitive manner. This allowed the degree of departure from the classic 'first-flush', clockwise hysteresis models to be assessed. Of the 15 turbidity events considered, 10 coincided with ammonia spikes of up to 6.25 mg l(-1) at Water Orton (the downstream station): this suggests that spills from combined sewer overflows (CSO) or waste water treatment works (WwTWs) are significant in the throughput of turbid waters here. Substantial ammonia peaks related most strongly to total storm rainfall receipt, of four rainfall variables considered, and significant ammonia peaks were generated even from low-magnitude storms (rainfall totals <4 mm), indicating that spills are a frequent occurrence. Local bed sediment stores appear to be limited, suggesting that other distal sediment sources, such as road networks and old mineworkings are possibly more important. Biofilms may also play a part in delaying sediment release until late in the hydrograph, and in suppressing late spring turbidity levels. Existing first-flush models appear to be an oversimplification here. Such urban headwater basin responses can provide useful insights into the generation of contaminant waves, and offer vital early-warning systems for pollution events propagating downstream.
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Hydro-Geomorphic Connectivity in Arid Watershed: Anthropogenic Effects and Extreme Flash flood
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Egozi, Roey
2017-04-01
Arid watersheds are excellent settings to study water and sediment connectivity because of spars vegetation and the possibility to make clearer links between climate parameters and topographical changes. However different flood event magnitudes may result in different degrees of connectivity. This even gets more complicated when man made modifications to the drainage system are done without considering the outcomes in terms of the potential of flood damage and risks, i.e. in the case of extreme flash floods. Herein we report on the results from two studies conducted in two different small catchments along the dead sea rift: Wadi A Dalia and Wadi Ras Moakif. The studies conducted as part of a larger project aimed at investigating the floods and damages triggered by a rare storm event occurred at the end of October 2015. This storm event covered all of Israel and characterized with rare rainfall depths and intensities as well as floods with rare pick discharges. Observations and field measurements of bed material, river cross sections and water elevation markers were done and statistical analysis has been performed to estimate the exceed probability of the different measured and estimated hydro-climatic values. In Wadi-A-Dalia the coupling of rare rainfall depths over the watershed area which itself was bare due to over grazing result in a major flood. The severe damage caused by this flood was intensified due to the increase of structural hydrologic connectivity, i.e. flood protection canal discharged higher volumes of water collected from small Wadi systems at the same time. In Wadi Ras Moakif the rainfall cells did not produced rare rainfall, but still a major flood occurred over a very short distance of the main channel transporting huge amount of bed material deposited and blocked the main road along the dead sea western coast. In this case the cause was similar - a modification to the drainage system result in increase structural hydrologic connectivity lead to runoff concentration and higher stream power value. The results suggest that in arid watersheds flood protection measures that involve modifications to the drainage system such that the structural hydrologic connectivity improves with the aim to conduit the volume of water away may fail to provide the protection planned and may cause higher damage to infrastructures. Therefore, hydrologic connectivity should become a parameter in flood control design. Moreover, studying hydrologic connectivity in natural landscapes may provide valid solutions for flood control design projects.
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Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
DelGenio, Anthony D.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anagnostou, Marios N.; Kalogiros, John; Marzano, Frank S.; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Baldini, Luca; Nikolopoulos, EfThymios; Montopoli, Mario; Picciotti, Errico
2014-05-01
The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. Every year in central and south Europe we witness several fatal and economical disasters from severe storm rainfall triggering Flash Floods, and its impacts are increasing worldwide, but remain very difficult to manage. The spatial scale of flash flood occurrence is such that its vulnerability is often focused on dispersed urbanization, transportation and tourism infrastructures (De Marchi and Scolobig 2012). Urbanized and industrialized areas shows peculiar hydrodynamic and meteo-oceanographic features and they concentrate the highest rates of flash floods and fatal disasters. The main causes of disturbance being littoral urban development and harbor activities, the building of littoral rail- and highways, and the presence of several polluted discharges. All the above mentioned characteristics limit our ability to issue timely flood warnings. Precipitation estimates based on raingauge networks are usually associated with low coverage density, particularly at high altitudes. On the other hand, operational weather radar networks may provide valuable information of precipitation at these regimes but reliability of their estimates is often limited due to retrieval (e.g. variability in the reflectivity-to-rainfall relationship) and spatial extent constrains (e.g. blockage issues, overshooting effects). As a result, we currently lack accurate precipitation estimates over urban complex terrain areas, which essentially means that we lack accurate knowledge of the triggering factor for a number of hazards like flash floods and debris flows/landslides occurring in those areas. A potential solution to overcome sampling as well as retrieval uncertainty limitations of current observational networks might be the use of network of low-power dual-polarization X-band radars as complement to raingauges and gap-filling to operational, low-frequency (C-band or S-ban) and high-power weather radars. The above hypothesis is examined using data collected during the HyMEX 2012 Special Observation Period (Nov-Feb) the urban and sub-urban complex terrain area in the Central Italy (CI). The area is densely populated and it includes the high-density populated urban and industrial area of Rome. The orography of CI is quite complex, going from sea level to nearly 3000 m in less than 150 km. The CI area involves many rivers, including two major basins: the Aniene-Tiber basin (1000 km long) and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long), respectively on the west and on the east side of the Apennines ridge. Data include observations from i) the National Observatory of Athens' X-band polarimetric weather radar (XPOL), ii) two X-band miniradars (WR25X located in CNR, WR10X located in Rome Sapienza), iii) a dense network of raingauges and disdrometers (i.e. Parsivel type and 2D-video type). In addition, the experimental area is also covered from the nearby the National Research Council (CNR)'s C-band dual-polarization weather radar (Polar55C), which were involved also in the analysis. A number of storm events are selected and compared with the nearby C-band radar to investigate the potential of using high-resolution and microphysically-derived rainfall based on X-band polarimetric radar observations. Events have been discriminated on the basis of rainfall intensity and hydrological response. Results reveal that in contrast with the other two rainfall sources (in situ and C-band radar), X-band radar rainfall estimates offer an improved representation of the local precipitation variability, which turns to have a significant impact in simulating the peak flows associated with these events.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine
2016-04-01
The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the (R)USLE model. The R-factor is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minutes rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years) which are not readily available at European scale. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland in order to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,541 rainfall stations in 2014 and has been updated with 134 additional stations in 2015. The interpolation of those point R-factor values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511, 801-815). The intra-annual variability of rainfall erosivity is crucial for modelling soil erosion on a monthly and seasonal basis. The monthly feature of rainfall erosivity has been added in 2015 as an advancement of REDES and the respective mean annual R-factor map. Almost 19,000 monthly R-factor values of REDES contributed to the seasonal and monthly assessments of rainfall erosivity in Europe. According to the first results, more than 50% of the total rainfall erosivity in Europe takes place in the period from June to September. The spatial patterns of rainfall erosivity have significant differences between Northern and Southern Europe as summer is the most erosive period in Central and Northern Europe and autumn in the Mediterranean area. This spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall erosivity at European scale is very important for policy makers and farmers for soil conservation, optimization of agricultural land use and natural hazards prediction. REDES is also used in combination with future rainfall data from WorldClim to run climate change scenarios. The projection of REDES combined with climate change scenarios (HADGEM2, RCP4.5) and using a robust geo-statistical model resulted in a 10-20% increase of the R-factor in Europe till 2050.
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Modeling the roles of damage accumulation and mechanical healing on rainfall-induced landslides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fan, Linfeng; Lehmann, Peter; Or, Dani
2014-05-01
The abrupt release of rainfall-induced shallow landslides is preceded by local failures that may abruptly coalesce and form a continuous failure plane within a hillslope. The mechanical status of hillslopes reflects a competition between the extent of severity of accumulated local damage during prior rainfall events and the rates of mechanically healing (i.e. regaining of strength) by closure of micro-cracks, regrowth of roots, etc. The interplay of these processes affects the initial conditions for landslide modeling and shapes potential failure patterns during future rainfall events. We incorporated these competing mechanical processes in a hydro-mechanical landslide triggering model subjected to a sequence of rainfall scenarios. The model employs the Fiber Bundle Model (FBM) with bonds (fiber bundle) with prescribed threshold linking adjacent soil columns and soil to bedrock. Prior damage was represented by a fraction of broken fibers during previous rainfall events, and the healing of broken fibers was described by strength regaining models for soil and roots at different characteristic time scales. Results show that prior damage and healing introduce highly nonlinear response to landslide triggering. For small prior damage, mechanical bonds at soil-bedrock interface may fail early in next rainfall event but lead to small perturbations onto lateral bonds without triggering a landslide. For more severe damage weakening lateral bonds, excess load due to failure at soil-bedrock interface accumulates at downslope soil columns resulting in early soil failure with patterns strongly correlated with prior damage distribution. Increasing prior damage over the hillslope decreases the volume of first landslide and prolongs the time needed to trigger the second landslide due to mechanical relaxation of the system. The mechanical healing of fibers diminishes effects of prior damage on the time of failure, and shortens waiting time between the first and second landslides. These findings highlight the need to improve definition of initial conditions and the shortcomings of assuming pristine hillslopes.
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Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Storm Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Witkop, R.; Becker, A.; Stempel, P.
2017-12-01
High resolution, physical storm models that can rapidly predict storm surge, inundation, rainfall, wind velocity and wave height at the intra-facility scale for any storm affecting Rhode Island have been developed by Researchers at the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) (Ginis et al., 2017). At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Department has developed methods that inhere individual geographic points into GSO's models and enable the models to accurately incorporate local scale, high resolution data (Stempel et al., 2017). This combination allows URI's storm models to predict any storm's impacts on individual Rhode Island facilities in near real time. The research presented here determines how a coastal Rhode Island town's critical facility managers (FMs) perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale and explores methods to elicit this information from FMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI's storm models.
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Presley, Todd K.; Jamison, Marcael T.J.
2009-01-01
Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. The program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream, and to assess the effects from the H-1 storm drain on Manoa Stream. For this program, rainfall data were collected at three stations, continuous discharge data at five stations, and water-quality data at six stations, which include the five continuous discharge stations. This report summarizes rainfall, discharge, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2008, and June 30, 2009. Within the Halawa Stream drainage area, three storms (October 25 and December 11, 2008, and February 3, 2009) were sampled during July 1, 2008, to June 30, 2009. A total of 43 environmental samples were collected during these three storms. During the storm of October 25, 2009, 31 samples were collected and analyzed individually for metals only. The other 12 samples from the other two storms were analyzed for some or all of the following analytes: total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, and zinc). Additionally, grab samples were analyzed for some or all of the following analytes: oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Some grab and composite samples were analyzed for only a partial list of these analytes, either because samples could not be delivered to the laboratory in a timely manner, or an insufficient volume of sample was collected by the automatic samplers. Two quality-assurance/quality-control samples were collected after cleaning automatic sampler lines to verify that the sampling lines were not contaminated. Four environmental samples were collected at the H-1 Storm Drain during July 1, 2008, to June 30, 2009. An oil and grease sample and a composite sample were collected during the storm on November 15, 2008, and two composite samples were collected during the January 11, 2009, storm. All samples at this site were collected using an automatic sampler. Samples were analyzed for some or all of the following analytes: total suspended solids, nutrients, oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). One qualityassurance/quality-control sample was collected after cleaning automatic sampler lines to verify that the sampling lines were not contaminated. During the storm of January 11, 2009, the two composite samples collected at H-1 Storm Drain were collected about three hours apart. Higher constituent concentrations were detected in the first 2 composite sample relative to the second composite sample, although the average discharge was higher during the period when the second sample was collected.
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2015-03-31
ISS043E078169 (03/31/2015) --- This close up of the huge Typhoon Maysak "eye" of the category 5 (hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale) was captured by astronauts on board the International Space Station Mar. 31, 2015. The massive Typhoon is headed toward the Philippines and expected to land on the upcoming Easter weekend. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites, both co-managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, captured rainfall and cloud data that revealed very heavy rainfall and high thunderstorms in the still strengthening storm.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.
2014-12-01
Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.
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Guay, J.R.
1996-01-01
Urban areas in Perris Valley, California, have more than tripled during the last 20 years. To quantify the effects of increased urbanization on storm runoff volumes and peak discharges, rainfall-runoff models of the basin were developed to simulate runoff for 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. Hourly rainfall data for 1949-93 were used with the rainfall-runoff models to simulate a long-term record of storm runoff. The hydrologic effects of increased urbanization from 1970-75 to 1990-93 were analyzed by comparing the simulated annual peak discharges and volumes, and storm runoff peaks, frequency of annual peak discharges and runoff volumes, and duration of storm peak discharges for each study period. A Log-Pearson Type-III frequency analysis was calculated using the simulated annual peaks to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals. The estimated 2-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was 646 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 conditions and 1,328 cubic feet per second for the 1990-93 conditions. The 100-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was about 14,000 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. The station duration analysis used 925 model-simulated storm peaks from each basin to estimate the percent chance a peak discharge is exceeded. At the outlet of the basin, the chances of exceeding 100 cubic feet per second were about 33 percent under 1970-75 conditions and about 59 percent under 1990-93 conditions. The chance of exceeding 2,500 cubic feet per second at the outlet of the basin was less than 1 percent higher under the 1990-93 conditions than under the 1970-75 conditions. The increase in urbanization from the early 1970's to the early 1990's more than doubled the peak discharges with a 2-year return period. However, peak discharges with return periods greater than 50 years were not significantly affected by the change in urbanization.
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Empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valenzuela, Pablo; Luís Zêzere, José; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio
2017-04-01
Rainfall-triggered landslides are common and widespread phenomena in Asturias, a mountainous region in the NW of Spain where the climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature values of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Different types of landslides (slides, flows and rockfalls) frequently occur during intense rainfall events, causing every year great economic losses and sometimes human injuries or fatalities. For this reason, its temporal forecast is of great interest. The main goal of the present research is the calculation of empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Asturian region, following the methodology described by Zêzere et al., 2015. For this purpose, data from 559 individual landslides collected from press archives during a period of eight hydrological years (October 2008-September 2016) and gathered within the BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) were used. Precipitation data series of 37 years came from 6 weather stations representative of the main geographical and climatic conditions within the study area. Applied methodology includes: (i) the definition of landslide events, (ii) the reconstruction of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for each event from 1 to 90 consecutive days, (iii) the estimation of the return period for each cumulated rainfall-duration condition using Gumbel probability distribution, (iv) the definition of the critical cumulated rainfall-duration conditions taking into account the highest return period, (v) the calculation of the thresholds considering both the conditions for the occurrence and non-occurrence of landslides. References: Zêzere, J.L., Vaz, T., Pereira, S., Oliveira, S.C., Marqués, R., García, R.A.C. 2015. Rainfall thresholds for landslide activity in Portugal: a state of the art. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73, 2917-2936. doi: 10.1007/s12665-014-3672-0
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Modern proposal of methodology for retrieval of characteristic synthetic rainfall hyetographs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Licznar, Paweł; Burszta-Adamiak, Ewa; Łomotowski, Janusz; Stańczyk, Justyna
2017-11-01
Modern engineering workshop of designing and modelling complex drainage systems is based on hydrodynamic modelling and has a probabilistic character. Its practical application requires a change regarding rainfall models accepted at the input. Previously used artificial rainfall models of simplified form, e.g. block precipitation or Euler's type II model rainfall are no longer sufficient. It is noticeable that urgent clarification is needed as regards the methodology of standardized rainfall hyetographs that would take into consideration the specifics of local storm rainfall temporal dynamics. The aim of the paper is to present a proposal for innovative methodology for determining standardized rainfall hyetographs, based on statistical processing of the collection of actual local precipitation characteristics. Proposed methodology is based on the classification of standardized rainfall hyetographs with the use of cluster analysis. Its application is presented on the example of selected rain gauges localized in Poland. Synthetic rainfall hyetographs achieved as a final result may be used for hydrodynamic modelling of sewerage systems, including probabilistic detection of necessary capacity of retention reservoirs.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fennessey, N. M.; Eagleson, P. S.; Qinliang, W.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.
1986-01-01
The parameters of the conceptual model are evaluated from the analysis of eight years of summer rainstorm data from the dense raingage network in the Walnut Gulch catchment near Tucson, Arizona. The occurrence of measurable rain at any one of the 93 gages during a noon to noon day defined a storm. The total rainfall at each of the gages during a storm day constituted the data set for a single storm. The data are interpolated onto a fine grid and analyzed to obtain: an isohyetal plot at 2 mm intervals, the first three moments of point storm depth, the spatial correlation function, the spatial variance function, and the spatial distribution of the total storm depth. The description of the data analysis and the computer programs necessary to read the associated data tapes are presented.
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Blow me down: A new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow
2014-01-01
Background Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. Results We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Conclusions Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events. PMID:24641794
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Blow me down: a new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow.
Jack, Samuel Linton; Hoffman, Michael Timm; Rohde, Rick Frederick; Durbach, Ian; Archibald, Margaret
2014-03-18
Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events.
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Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.
2017-12-01
Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.
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Transient hazard model using radar data for predicting debris flows in Madison County, Virginia
Morrissey, M.M.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Morgan, B.A.
2004-01-01
During the rainstorm of June 27, 1995, roughly 330-750 mm of rain fell within a 16-hour period, initiating floods and over 600 debris flows in a small area (130 km2) of Madison County, VA. We developed a distributed version of Iverson's transient response model for regional slope stability analysis for the Madison County debris flows. This version of the model evaluates pore-pressure head response and factor of safety on a regional scale in areas prone to rainfall-induced shallow (<2-3 m) landslides. These calculations used soil properties of shear strength and hydraulic conductivity from laboratory measurements of soil samples collected from field sites where debris flows initiated. Rainfall data collected by radar every 6 minutes provided a basis for calculating the temporal variation of slope stability during the storm. The results demonstrate that the spatial and temporal variation of the factor of safety correlates with the movement of the storm cell. When the rainstorm was treated as two separate rainfall events and a larger hydraulic conductivity and friction angle than the laboratory values were used, the timing and location of landslides predicted by the model were in closer agreement with eyewitness observations of debris flows. Application of spatially variable initial pre-storm water table depth and soil properties may improve both the spatial and temporal prediction of instability.
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Susceptibility and triggering scenarios at a regional scale for shallow landslides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gullà, G.; Antronico, L.; Iaquinta, P.; Terranova, O.
2008-07-01
The work aims at identifying susceptible areas and pluviometric triggering scenarios at a regional scale in Calabria (Italy), with reference to shallow landsliding events. The proposed methodology follows a statistical approach and uses a database linked to a GIS that has been created to support the various steps of spatial data management and manipulation. The shallow landslide predisposing factors taken into account are derived from (i) the 40-m digital terrain model of the region, an ˜ 15,075 km 2 extension; (ii) outcropping lithology; (iii) soils; and (iv) land use. More precisely, a map of the slopes has been drawn from the digital terrain model. Two kinds of covers [prevalently coarse-grained (CG cover) or fine-grained (FG cover)] were identified, referring to the geotechnical characteristics of geomaterial covers and to the lithology map; soilscapes were drawn from soil maps; and finally, the land use map was employed without any prior processing. Subsequently, the inventory maps of some shallow landsliding events, totaling more than 30,000 instabilities of the past and detected by field surveys and photo aerial restitution, were employed to calibrate the relative importance of these predisposing factors. The use of single factors (first level analysis) therefore provides three different susceptibility maps. Second level analysis, however, enables better location of areas susceptible to shallow landsliding events by crossing the single susceptibility maps. On the basis of the susceptibility map obtained by the second level analysis, five different classes of susceptibility to shallow landsliding events have been outlined over the regional territory: 8.9% of the regional territory shows very high susceptibility, 14.3% high susceptibility, 15% moderate susceptibility, 3.6% low susceptibility, and finally, about 58% very low susceptibility. Finally, the maps of two significant shallow landsliding events of the past and their related rainfalls have been utilized to identify the relevant pluviometric triggering scenarios. By using 205 daily rainfall series, different triggering pluviometric scenarios have been identified with reference to CG and FG covers: a value of 365 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 170 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity and a value of 325 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 158 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity are able to trigger shallow landsliding events for CG and FG covers, respectively. The results obtained from this study can help administrative authorities to plan future development activities and mitigation measures in shallow landslide-prone areas. In addition, the proposed methodology can be useful in managing emergency situations at a regional scale for shallow landsliding events triggered by intense rainfalls; through this approach, the susceptibility and the pluviometric triggering scenario maps will be improved by means of finer calibration of the involved factors.
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Hydrograph simulation models of the Hillsborough and Alafia Rivers, Florida: a preliminary report
Turner, James F.
1972-01-01
Mathematical (digital) models that simulate flood hydrographs from rainfall records have been developed for the following gaging stations in the Hillsborough and Alafia River basins of west-central Florida: Hillsborough River near Tampa, Alafia River at Lithia, and north Prong Alafia River near Keysville. These models, which were developed from historical streamflow and and rainfall records, are based on rainfall-runoff and unit-hydrograph procedures involving an arbitrary separation of the flood hydrograph. These models assume the flood hydrograph to be composed of only two flow components, direct (storm) runoff, and base flow. Expressions describing these two flow components are derived from streamflow and rainfall records and are combined analytically to form algorithms (models), which are programmed for processing on a digital computing system. Most Hillsborough and Alafia River flood discharges can be simulated with expected relative errors less than or equal to 30 percent and flood peaks can be simulated with average relative errors less than 15 percent. Because of the inadequate rainfall network that is used in obtaining input data for the North Prong Alafia River model, simulated peaks are frequently in error by more than 40 percent, particularly for storms having highly variable areal rainfall distribution. Simulation errors are the result of rainfall sample errors and, to a lesser extent, model inadequacy. Data errors associated with the determination of mean basin precipitation are the result of the small number and poor areal distribution of rainfall stations available for use in the study. Model inadequacy, however, is attributed to the basic underlying theory, particularly the rainfall-runoff relation. These models broaden and enhance existing water-management capabilities within these basins by allowing the establishment and implementation of programs providing for continued development in these areas. Specifically, the models serve not only as a basis for forecasting floods, but also for simulating hydrologic information needed in flood-plain mapping and delineating and evaluating alternative flood control and abatement plans.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shearer, E. J.; Nguyen, P.; Ombadi, M.; Palacios, T.; Huynh, P.; Furman, D.; Tran, H.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Logan, W. S.
2017-12-01
During the 2017 hurricane season, three major hurricanes-Harvey, Irma, and Maria-devastated the Atlantic coast of the US and the Caribbean Islands. Harvey set the record for the rainiest storm in continental US history, Irma was the longest-lived powerful hurricane ever observed, and Maria was the costliest storm in Puerto Rican history. The recorded maximum precipitation totals for these storms were 65, 16, and 20 inches respectively. These events provided the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) an opportunity to test its global real-time satellite precipitation observation system, iRain, for extreme storm events. The iRain system has been under development through a collaboration between CHRS at the University of California, Irvine (UCI) and UNESCO's International Hydrological Program (IHP). iRain provides near real-time high resolution (0.04°, approx. 4km) global (60°N - 60°S) satellite precipitation data estimated by the PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) algorithm developed by the scientists at CHRS. The user-interactive and web-accessible iRain system allows users to visualize and download real-time global satellite precipitation estimates and track the development and path of the current 50 largest storms globally from data generated by the PERSIANN-CCS algorithm. iRain continuously proves to be an effective tool for measuring real-time precipitation amounts of extreme storms-especially in locations that do not have extensive rain gauge or radar coverage. Such areas include large portions of the world's oceans and over continents such as Africa and Asia. CHRS also created a mobile app version of the system named "iRain UCI", available for iOS and Android devices. During these storms, real-time rainfall data generated by PERSIANN-CCS was consistently comparable to radar and rain gauge data. This presentation evaluates iRain's efficiency as a tool for extreme precipitation monitoring and provides an evaluation of the PERSIANN-CCS real-time rainfall estimates during Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in relation to radar and rain gauge data using continuous (correlation, root mean square error, and bias) and categorical (POD and FAR) indices. These results present the relative skill of PERSIANN-CCS real-time data to radar and rain gauge data.
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Precipitation Discrimination from Satellite Infrared Temperatures over the CCOPE Mesonet Region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weiss, Mitchell; Smith, Eric A.
1987-06-01
A quantitative investigation of the relationship between satellite-derived cloud-top temperature parameters and the detection of intense convective rainfall is described. The area of study is that of the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment (CCOPE), which was held near Miles City, Montana during the summer of 1981. Cloud-top temperatures, derived from the GOES-West operational satellite, were used to calculate a variety of parameters for objectively quantifying the convective intensity of a storm. A dense network of rainfall provided verification of surface rainfall. The cloud-top temperature field and surface rainfall data were processed into equally sized grid domains in order to best depict the individual samples of instantaneous precipitation.The technique of statistical discriminant analysis was used to determine which combinations of cloud-top temperature parameters best classify rain versus no-rain occurrence using three different rain-rate cutoffs: 1, 4, and 10 mm h1. Time lags within the 30 min rainfall verification were tested to determine the optimum time delay associated with rainfall reaching the ground.A total of six storm cases were used to develop and test the statistical models. Discrimination of rain events was found to be most accurate when using a 10 mm h1 rain-rate cutoff. Use parameters designated as coldest cloud-top temperature, the spatial mean of coldest cloud-top temperature, and change over time of mean coldest cloud-top temperature were found to be the best classifiers of rainfall in this study. Combining both a 10-min time lag (in terms of surface verification) with a 10 mm h1 rain-rate threshold resulted in classifying over 60% of all rain and no-rain cases correctly.
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Quasi-continuous stochastic simulation framework for flood modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moustakis, Yiannis; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas
2017-04-01
Typically, flood modelling in the context of everyday engineering practices is addressed through event-based deterministic tools, e.g., the well-known SCS-CN method. A major shortcoming of such approaches is the ignorance of uncertainty, which is associated with the variability of soil moisture conditions and the variability of rainfall during the storm event.In event-based modeling, the sole expression of uncertainty is the return period of the design storm, which is assumed to represent the acceptable risk of all output quantities (flood volume, peak discharge, etc.). On the other hand, the varying antecedent soil moisture conditions across the basin are represented by means of scenarios (e.g., the three AMC types by SCS),while the temporal distribution of rainfall is represented through standard deterministic patterns (e.g., the alternative blocks method). In order to address these major inconsistencies,simultaneously preserving the simplicity and parsimony of the SCS-CN method, we have developed a quasi-continuous stochastic simulation approach, comprising the following steps: (1) generation of synthetic daily rainfall time series; (2) update of potential maximum soil moisture retention, on the basis of accumulated five-day rainfall; (3) estimation of daily runoff through the SCS-CN formula, using as inputs the daily rainfall and the updated value of soil moisture retention;(4) selection of extreme events and application of the standard SCS-CN procedure for each specific event, on the basis of synthetic rainfall.This scheme requires the use of two stochastic modelling components, namely the CastaliaR model, for the generation of synthetic daily data, and the HyetosMinute model, for the disaggregation of daily rainfall to finer temporal scales. Outcomes of this approach are a large number of synthetic flood events, allowing for expressing the design variables in statistical terms and thus properly evaluating the flood risk.
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Characterizing multiscale variability of zero intermittency in spatial rainfall
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kumar, Praveen; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi
1994-01-01
In this paper the authors study how zero intermittency in spatial rainfall, as described by the fraction of area covered by rainfall, changes with spatial scale of rainfall measurement or representation. A statistical measure of intermittency that describes the size distribution of 'voids' (nonrainy areas imbedded inside rainy areas) as a function of scale is also introduced. Morphological algorithms are proposed for reconstructing rainfall intermittency at fine scales given the intermittency at coarser scales. These algorithms are envisioned to be useful in hydroclimatological studies where the rainfall spatial variability at the subgrid scale needs to be reconstructed from the results of synoptic- or mesoscale meteorological numerical models. The developed methodologies are demsonstrated and tested using data from a severe springtime midlatitude squall line and a mild midlatitude winter storm monitored by a meteorological radar in Norman, Oklahoma.
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Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas
Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul
2011-01-01
Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.
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The modified turning bands (MTB) model for space-time rainfall. I. Model definition and properties
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mellor, Dale
1996-02-01
A new stochastic model of space-time rainfall, the Modified Turning Bands (MTB) model, is proposed which reproduces, in particular, the movements and developments of rainbands, cluster potential regions and raincells, as well as their respective interactions. The ensemble correlation structure is unsuitable for practical estimation of the model parameters because the model is not ergodic in this statistic, and hence it cannot easily be measured from a single real storm. Thus, some general theory on the internal covariance structure of a class of stochastic models is presented, of which the MTB model is an example. It is noted that, for the MTB model, the internal covariance structure may be measured from a single storm, and can thus be used for model identification.
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Impacts of different rainfall patterns on hyporheic zone under transient conditions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, S.; Chui, T. F. M.
2017-12-01
The hyporheic zone (HZ), the region beneath or alongside a streambed, can play a vital role in stream ecology. Several previous studies have investigated the influential factors on the HZ in the steady state. However, the exchange between surface water and groundwater in the HZ can be dynamic and transient, during a transient event such as a storm. Therefore, this study investigates the changes of the HZ under the transient conditions of a storm, and examines the impacts of different rainfall patterns (i.e., intensity and duration) on the HZ. A two-dimensional groundwater-stream model is developed with a domain of 10-meter long and 2-meter deep. The streambed consists of a series of dunes that induce hyporheic exchanges. Brinkman-Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations are respectively employed for the subsurface and stream water, and the velocity and the pressure are coupled at the interface (i.e., the streambed). To compare the results from different rainfall patterns, the influential duration (IT) and the influential depth (ID) are proposed and evaluated. IT is the time required for the HZ to return to its intial stage, once it starts to change. ID is the maximum increment in the depth of the HZ. To accurately detect the region of the HZ in different situations, the moving split-window analysis method is used. The region of the HZ is found to vary significantly under different rainfall intensities. Rainfall intensity displays logarithmic relationships with both the IT and ID with high coefficients of determination (r2=0.98). The derived relationships can be used to predict the influrence of a rainfall event on the HZ. However, the influence of rainfall duration on the HZ depends on other factors such as groundwater response. Rainfall duration displays positive realionships with the IT and ID, but only between certain lower and upper thresholds of rainfall duration. If rainfall duration is shorter than the lower threshold value or longer than the upper value, the IT and ID will have little change with rainfall duration.
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Ellis, Sherman R.
1978-01-01
Urban storm-runoff data, collected from 1975 to 1977, on three catchment areas in the Denver, Colo., metropolitan area are presented. The catchment are predominantly a single-family residential catchment area in Littleton, a multifamily residential and commercial catchment area in Lakewood, and a high-density residential and commercial catchment area in Denver. Precipitation, rainfall-runoff, snowmelt-runoff, water-quality (common constituents, nutrients, biochemical oxygen demand, coliform bacteria, and solids, trace elements, and pesticides), and catchment-area data are necessary to use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 's Storm Water Management Model II. The urban storm-runoff data may be used by planning, water-management, and environmental-protection agencies to assess the impact of urban storm runoff on the hydrologic system. (Woodard-USGS)
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Extreme rainfall events: Learning from raingauge time series
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boni, G.; Parodi, A.; Rudari, R.
2006-08-01
SummaryThis study analyzes the historical records of annual rainfall maxima recorded in Northern Italy, cumulated over time windows (durations) of 1 and 24 h and considered paradigmatic descriptions of storms of both short and long duration. Three large areas are studied: Liguria, Piedmont and Triveneto (Triveneto includes the Regions of Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige and Friuli Venezia Giulia). A regional frequency analysis of annual rainfall maxima is carried out through the Two Components Extreme Value (TCEV) distribution. A hierarchical approach is used to define statistically homogeneous areas so that the definition of a regional distribution becomes possible. Thanks to the peculiar nature of the TCEV distribution, a frequency-based threshold criterion is proposed. Such criterion allows to distinguish the observed ordinary values from the observed extra-ordinary values of annual rainfall maxima. A second step of this study focuses on the analysis of the probability of occurrence of extra-ordinary events over a period of one year. Results show the existence of a four month dominant season that maximizes the number of occurrences of annual rainfall maxima. Such results also show how the seasonality of extra-ordinary events changes whenever a different duration of events is considered. The joint probability of occurrence of extreme storms of short and long duration is also analyzed. Such analysis demonstrates how the joint probability of occurrence significantly changes when all rainfall maxima or only extra-ordinary maxima are used. All results undergo a critical discussion. Such discussion seems to lead to the point that the identified statistical characteristics might represent the landmark of those mechanisms causing heavy precipitation in the analyzed regions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hancock, G. R.; Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.
2009-12-01
Recently there has been recognition that changing climate will affect rainfall and storm patterns with research directed to examine how the global hydrological cycle will respond to climate change. This study investigates the effect of different rainfall patterns on erosion and resultant water quality for a well studied tropical monsoonal catchment that is undisturbed by Europeans in the Northern Territory, Australia. Water quality has a large affect on a range of aquatic flora and fauna and a significant change in sediment could have impacts on the aquatic ecosystems. There have been several studies of the effect of climate change on rainfall patterns in the study area with projections indicating a significant increase in storm activity. Therefore it is important that the impact of this variability be assessed in terms of catchment hydrology, sediment transport and water quality. Here a numerical model of erosion and hydrology (CAESAR) is used to assess several different rainfall scenarios over a 1000 year modelled period. The results show that that increased rainfall amount and intensity increases sediment transport rates but predicted water quality was variable and non-linear but within the range of measured field data for the catchment and region. Therefore an assessment of sediment transport and water quality is a significant and complex issue that requires further understandings of the role of biophysical feedbacks such as vegetation as well as the role of humans in managing landscapes (i.e. controlled and uncontrolled fire). The study provides a robust methodology for assessing the impact of enhanced climate variability on sediment transport and water quality.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McEnery, J. A.; Jitkajornwanich, K.
2012-12-01
This presentation will describe the methodology and overall system development by which a benchmark dataset of precipitation information has been used to characterize the depth-area-duration relations in heavy rain storms occurring over regions of Texas. Over the past two years project investigators along with the National Weather Service (NWS) West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) have developed and operated a gateway data system to ingest, store, and disseminate NWS multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE). As a pilot project of the Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) initiative, this testbed uses a Standard Query Language (SQL) server to maintain a full archive of current and historic MPE values within the WGRFC service area. These time series values are made available for public access as web services in the standard WaterML format. Having this volume of information maintained in a comprehensive database now allows the use of relational analysis capabilities within SQL to leverage these multi-sensor precipitation values and produce a valuable derivative product. The area of focus for this study is North Texas and will utilize values that originated from the West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC); one of three River Forecast Centers currently represented in the holdings of this data system. Over the past two decades, NEXRAD radar has dramatically improved the ability to record rainfall. The resulting hourly MPE values, distributed over an approximate 4 km by 4 km grid, are considered by the NWS to be the "best estimate" of rainfall. The data server provides an accepted standard interface for internet access to the largest time-series dataset of NEXRAD based MPE values ever assembled. An automated script has been written to search and extract storms over the 18 year period of record from the contents of this massive historical precipitation database. Not only can it extract site-specific storms, but also duration-specific storms and storms separated by user defined inter-event periods. A separate storm database has been created to store the selected output. By storing output within tables in a separate database, we can make use of powerful SQL capabilities to perform flexible pattern analysis. Previous efforts have made use of historic data from limited clusters of irregularly spaced physical gauges. Spatial extent of the observational network has been a limiting factor. The relatively dense distribution of MPE provides a virtual mesh of observations stretched over the landscape. This work combines a unique hydrologic data resource with programming and database analysis to characterize storm depth-area-duration relationships.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palladino, M. R.; Viero, A.; Turconi, L.; Brunetti, M. T.; Peruccacci, S.; Melillo, M.; Luino, F.; Deganutti, A. M.; Guzzetti, F.
2018-02-01
The aim of the present work is to investigate the role exerted by selected environmental factors in the activation of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides and to identify site-specific rainfall thresholds. The study concerns the Italian Alps. The region is exposed to widespread slope instability phenomena due to its geological, morphological and climatic features. Furthermore, the high level of anthropization that characterizes wide portions of the territory increases the associated risk. Hence, the analysis of potential predisposing factors influencing landslides triggering is worthwhile to improve the current prediction skills and to enhance the preparedness and the response to these natural hazards. During the last years, the Italian National Research Council's Research Institute for Hydro-geological Protection (CNR-IRPI) has contributed to the analysis of triggering conditions for rainfall-induced landslides in the framework of a national project. The project, funded by the National Department for Civil Protection (DPC), focuses on the identification of the empirical rainfall thresholds for the activation of shallow landslides in Italy. The first outcomes of the project reveal a certain variability of the pluviometric conditions responsible for the mass movements activation, when different environmental settings are compared. This variability is probably related to the action of local environmental factors, such as lithology, climatic regime or soil characteristics. Based on this hypothesis, the present study aims to identify separated domains within the Italian Alps, where different triggering conditions exist and different countermeasures are needed for risk prevention. For this purpose, we collected information concerning 511 landslides activated in the period 2000-2012 and reconstructed 453 rainfall events supposed to be responsible for the activations. Then, we selected a set of thematic maps to represent the hypothesised landslide conditioning factors and to identify the supposed homogeneous domains within the study area. We employed an existing statistical method for the definition of the cumulated event rainfall vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, for both the entire catalogue of rainfall events and for the events falling in the separated domains. The obtained results contribute to a better understanding of the role exerted by geological, pedological and climatic factors in landslides activation and help identifying separated domains where different risk managing strategies should be adopted. The proposed methodology can be a valid support for risk reduction strategies planning at regional scale.
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RiskScape: a new tool for comparing risk from natural hazards (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stirling, M. W.; King, A.
2010-12-01
The Regional RiskScape is New Zealand’s joint venture between GNS Science & NIWA, and represents a comprehensive and easy-to-use tool for multi-hazard-based risk and impact analysis. It has basic GIS functionality, in that it has Import/Export functions to use with GIS software. Five natural hazards have been implemented in Riskscape to date: Flood (river), earthquake, volcano (ash), tsunami and wind storm. The software converts hazard exposure information into the likely impacts for a region, for example, damage and replacement costs, casualties, economic losses, disruption, and number of people affected. It therefore can be used to assist with risk management, land use planning, building codes and design, risk identification, prioritization of risk-reduction/mitigation, determination of “best use” risk-reduction investment, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness raising, public information, realistic scenarios for exercises, and hazard event response. Three geographically disparate pilot regions have been used to develop and triall Riskscape in New Zealand, and each region is exposed to a different mix of natural hazards. Future (phase II) development of Riskscape will include the following hazards: Landslides (both rainfall and earthquake triggered), storm surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars, and climate change effects. While Riskscape developments have thus far focussed on scenario-based risk, future developments will advance the software into providing probabilistic-based solutions.
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Li, Liguang; He, Zhenli; Li, Zhigang; Zhang, Songhe; Li, Suli; Wan, Yongshan; Stoffella, Peter J
2016-10-01
Nitrogen (N) is considered as a key element that triggers algal boom in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), South Florida. Intensive agriculture may have contributed to increased N input into the IRL. Runoff and storm water samples were collected in representative agricultural fields and along waterways that connect lands to the IRL from April 2013 to December 2014. Concentrations of different N species (particulate N, dissolved organic N, dissolved NH4 (+)-N, and NO3 (-)-N) and related water physical-chemical properties were measured. Total N (TN) concentrations generally decreased from agricultural field furrows to discharging point of the waterways but were generally above the US EPA critical level (0.59 mg L(-1)) for surface water. Organic N was the dominant form of dissolved N, followed by NO3 (-)-N, and dissolved NH4 (+)-N. Concentrations and speciation of N in water varied with sites and sampling times but were generally higher in summer and fall and lower in spring and winter, as affected by the seasonality of regional hydrology and agricultural practices. Correlations occurred between N concentration, water physical properties, and rainfall. This information has important implications in the development of best management practices to minimize the impacts of agricultural practice on N loading in the Indian River Lagoon.
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Simulation of quantity and quality of storm runoff for urban catchments in Fresno, California
Guay, J.R.; Smith, P.E.
1988-01-01
Rainfall-runoff models were developed for a multiple-dwelling residential catchment (2 applications), a single-dwelling residential catchment, and a commercial catchment in Fresno, California, using the U.S. Geological Survey Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M-II). A runoff-quality model also was developed at the commercial catchment using the Survey 's Multiple-Event Urban Runoff Quality model (DR3M-qual). The purpose of this study was: (1) to demonstrate the capabilites of the two models for use in designing storm drains, estimating the frequency of storm runoff loads, and evaluating the effectiveness of street sweeping on an urban drainage catchment; and (2) to determine the simulation accuracies of these models. Simulation errors of the two models were summarized as the median absolute deviation in percent (mad) between measured and simulated values. Calibration and verification mad errors for runoff volumes and peak discharges ranged from 14 to 20%. The estimated annual storm-runoff loads, in pounds/acre of effective impervious area, that could occur once every hundred years at the commercial catchment was 95 for dissolved solids, 1.6 for the dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, 0.31 for total recoverable lead, and 120 for suspended sediment. Calibration and verification mad errors for the above constituents ranged from 11 to 54%. (USGS)
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lepore, C.; Arnone, E.; Noto, L. V.; Sivandran, G.; Bras, R. L.
2013-09-01
This paper presents the development of a rainfall-triggered landslide module within an existing physically based spatially distributed ecohydrologic model. The model, tRIBS-VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Networks-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator and Vegetation Generator for Interactive Evolution), is capable of a sophisticated description of many hydrological processes; in particular, the soil moisture dynamics are resolved at a temporal and spatial resolution required to examine the triggering mechanisms of rainfall-induced landslides. The validity of the tRIBS-VEGGIE model to a tropical environment is shown with an evaluation of its performance against direct observations made within the study area of Luquillo Forest. The newly developed landslide module builds upon the previous version of the tRIBS landslide component. This new module utilizes a numerical solution to the Richards' equation (present in tRIBS-VEGGIE but not in tRIBS), which better represents the time evolution of soil moisture transport through the soil column. Moreover, the new landslide module utilizes an extended formulation of the factor of safety (FS) to correctly quantify the role of matric suction in slope stability and to account for unsaturated conditions in the evaluation of FS. The new modeling framework couples the capabilities of the detailed hydrologic model to describe soil moisture dynamics with the infinite slope model, creating a powerful tool for the assessment of rainfall-triggered landslide risk.
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Our Globally Changing Climate. Chapter 1
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wuebbles, D. J.; Easterling, D. R.; Hayhoe, K.; Knutson, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Mears, C.; Sweet, W. V.;
2017-01-01
Since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth's climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences. While this report focuses especially on observed and projected future changes for the United States, it is important to understand those changes in the global context (this chapter). The world has warmed over the last 150 years, especially over the last six decades, and that warming has triggered many other changes to Earth's climate. Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Thousands of studies conducted by tens of thousands of scientists around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea level; and an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Rainfall patterns and storms are changing, and the occurrence of droughts is shifting.
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Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.
Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan
2017-12-05
From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.
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Thomas H. Epps; Daniel R. Hitchcock; Anand D. Jayakaran; Drake R. Loflin; Thomas M. Williams; Devendra M. Amatya
2013-01-01
The objective of this study was to assess curve number (CN) values derived for two forested headwater catchments in the Lower Coastal Plain (LCP) of South Carolina using a three-year period of storm event rainfall and runoff data in comparison with results obtained from CN method calculations. Derived CNs from rainfall/runoff pairs ranged from 46 to 90 for the Upper...
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Assessment of flood hazard in a combined sewer system in Reykjavik city centre.
Hlodversdottir, Asta Osk; Bjornsson, Brynjolfur; Andradottir, Hrund Olof; Eliasson, Jonas; Crochet, Philippe
2015-01-01
Short-duration precipitation bursts can cause substantial property damage and pose operational risks for wastewater managers. The objective of this study was to assess the present and possible future flood hazard in the combined sewer system in Reykjavik city centre. The catchment is characterised by two hills separated by a plain. A large portion of the pipes in the aging network are smaller than the current minimum diameter of 250 mm. Runoff and sewer flows were modelled using the MIKE URBAN software package incorporating both historical precipitation and synthetic storms derived from annual maximum rainfall data. Results suggest that 3% of public network manholes were vulnerable to flooding during an 11-year long rainfall sequence. A Chicago Design Storm (CDS) incorporating a 10-minute rainfall burst with a 5-year return period predicted twice as many flooded manholes at similar locations. A 20% increase in CDS intensity increased the number of flooded manholes and surface flood volume by 70% and 80%, respectively. The flood volume tripled if rainfall increase were combined with urban re-development, leading to a 20% increase in the runoff coefficient. Results highlight the need for reducing network vulnerabilities, which include decreased pipe diameters and low or drastically varying pipe grades.
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Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens
2017-06-01
Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25
behavioural model runs
with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that precipitation intensities during the investigated landslide-triggering rainfall events were already close to or above the soil's infiltration capacity. -
Rainfall Generated Debris flows on Mount Shasta: July 21, 2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mikulovsky, R. P.; De La Fuente, J. A.; Courtney, A.; Bachmann, S.; Rodriguez, H.; Rust, B.; Schneider, F.; Veich, D.
2015-12-01
Convective storms on the evening of July 21, 2015 generated a number of debris flows on the SE flank of Mount Shasta Volcano, Shasta-Trinity National Forest. Widespread rilling, gullying and sheet erosion occurred throughout the affected area. These storms damaged roads by scouring drainage ditches, blocking culverts, eroding road prisms, and depositing debris where streams emerged from their incised channels and flowed over their alluvial fans. Effects were limited geographically to a narrow band about 6 miles wide trending in a northeasterly direction. Debris flows were identified at Pilgrim Creek and nearby channels, and Mud Creek appears to have experienced sediment laden flows rather than debris flows. Doppler radar data reveal that the storm cells remained nearly stationary for two hours before moving in a northeasterly direction. Debris flows triggered by convective storms occur often at Mount Shasta, with a similar event recorded in 2003 and a larger one in 1935, which also involved glacial melt. The 1935 debris flow at Whitney Creek buried Highway 97 north of Weed, CA, and took out the railroad above the highway. In September, 2014, a large debris flow occurred in Mud Creek, but it was associated solely with glacial melt and was not accompanied by rain. The 2014 event at Mud Creek filled the channel and parts of the floodplain with debris. This debris was in turn reworked and eroded by sediment laden flows on July 21, 2015. This study was initiated in August, 2015, and began with field inventories to identify storm effects. Lidar data will be used to identify possible avulsion points that could result in unexpected flash flooding outside of the main Mud Creek channel and on adjacent streams. The results of this study will provide critical information that can be used to assess flash flood risk and better understand how to manage those risks. Finally, some conclusions may be drawn on the kinds of warning systems that may be appropriate for possible flash flood events and possible effective road designs for stream crossings and road surface drainage.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.
2012-12-01
During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have based on their track and other characteristics. Prat, O.P., and B.R. Nelson, 2012. J. Climate. Conditionally Accepted. Westerink, J., R. Luettich, J. Feyen, et al, 2008. Month. Weather Rev., 136, 833-864.
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Delineation of typhoon-induced shoreline changes in Taiwan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, Yun-Bin; Chiang, Jie-Lun
2010-05-01
Taiwan, an island country located at the southwestern Pacific Ocean, has a coast line of 1,355 km long. And only 55% proportion of the coast line remains natural. The maximum daily accumulated rainfall over 1000 mm brought by the typhoon Mindulle in 2004 generated huge disaster, including a broad flood-prone area and a sick sedimentation, in the littoral zones of the low-latitude part of Taiwan. The event resulted in the official definition of the coastal area, which is a 9 km wide belt area surrounding Taiwan island and is composed of one third land area and two third sea area. And human constructions are restricted in the proposed coast area to prevent or reduce the possible disaster in the future. Not only the sea level rising induced by the global climate warming may seriously affect the littoral zones, but also the extreme climate accompanying with the global climate warming, such as typhoons and storms, can heavily disturb the coastal environment in Taiwan. In the storm area, the wave and the storm surge may induce the coast erosion. But even being outside the storm area, the coastal environment is still regularly influenced by the sediment transportation triggered by the storm in the Cainozoic zones in the central part of Taiwan. Therefore, the continuous and regular monitoring of shoreline changes is essential for the disaster management in Taiwan. The two dimensional Morlet wavelet analysis is used to detect edges on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. And a block tracing algorithm and an active contour model are integrated for the final shorelines auto-delineation in the study. The SAR image that is climate unaffected and is free of visible light can provide reliable information. The Morlet wavelet function has the smallest window size and is directional. Therefore, the Morlet wavelet function is more flexible and efficient in extracting specific information from image signals. The shoreline changes induced by the typhoon Mindulle were studied. The outcome that is well coincided with the result of a field survey can be obtained in a more efficient way. Keywords: shoreline, auto-delineation, wavelet analysis, SAR
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Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.; Ellis, S.R.
1987-01-01
Multievent, conceptually based models and a single-event, multiple linear-regression model for estimating storm-runoff quantity and quality from urban areas were calibrated and verified for four small (57 to 167 acres) basins in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado. The basins represented different land-use types - light commercial, single-family housing, and multi-family housing. Both types of models were calibrated using the same data set for each basin. A comparison was made between the storm-runoff volume, peak flow, and storm-runoff loads of seven water quality constituents simulated by each of the models by use of identical verification data sets. The models studied were the U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Version II (DR3M-II) (a runoff-quantity model designed for urban areas), and a multievent urban runoff quality model (DR3M-QUAL). Water quality constituents modeled were chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total lead, total manganese, and total zinc. (USGS)
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Variation of curve number with storm depth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.
2012-04-01
The NRCS Curve Number (known also as SCS-CN) method is well known as a tool in predicting flood runoff depth from small ungauged catchment. The traditional way of determination the CNs, based on soil characteristics, land use and hydrological conditions, seemed to have tendency to overpredict the floods in some cases. Over 30 year rainfall-runoff data, collected in two small (A=23.4 & 82.4 km2), lowland, agricultural catchments in Center of Poland (Banasik & Woodward 2010), were used to determine runoff Curve Number and to check a tendency of changing. The observed CN declines with increasing storm size, which according recent views of Hawkins (1993) could be classified as a standard response of watershed. The analysis concluded, that using CN value according to the procedure described in USDA-SCS Handbook one receives representative value for estimating storm runoff from high rainfall depths in the analyzes catchments. This has been confirmed by applying "asymptotic approach" for estimating the watershed curve number from the rainfall-runoff data. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that CN, estimated from mean retention parameter S of recorded events with rainfall depth higher than initial abstraction, is also approaching the theoretical CN. The observed CN, ranging from 59.8 to 97.1 and from 52.3 to 95.5, in the smaller and the larger catchment respectively, declines with increasing storm size, which has been classified as a standard response of watershed. The investigation demonstrated also changeability of the CN during a year, with much lower values during the vegetation season. Banasik K. & D.E. Woodward (2010). "Empirical determination of curve number for a small agricultural watrshed in Poland". 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, Las Vegas, NV, June 27 - July 1, 2010 (http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/10E_Banasik_ 28_02_10. pdf). Hawkins R. H. (1993). "Asymptotic determination of curve numbers from data". Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Division. American Society of Civil Engineers, 119(2). pp. 334-345. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigation described in the paper is part of the research project no. N N305 396238 founded by PL-Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The support provided by this organization is gratefully acknowledged.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shaw, Stephen B.; Walter, M. Todd
2009-03-01
The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is widely used to predict storm runoff for hydraulic design purposes, such as sizing culverts and detention basins. As traditionally used, the probability of calculated runoff is equated to the probability of the causative rainfall event, an assumption that fails to account for the influence of variations in soil moisture on runoff generation. We propose a modification to the SCS-CN method that explicitly incorporates rainfall return periods and the frequency of different soil moisture states to quantify storm runoff risks. Soil moisture status is assumed to be correlated to stream base flow. Fundamentally, this approach treats runoff as the outcome of a bivariate process instead of dictating a 1:1 relationship between causative rainfall and resulting runoff volumes. Using data from the Fall Creek watershed in western New York and the headwaters of the French Broad River in the mountains of North Carolina, we show that our modified SCS-CN method improves frequency discharge predictions in medium-sized watersheds in the eastern United States in comparison to the traditional application of the method.
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Harden, Deborah Reid; Janda, Richard J.; Nolan, K. Michael
1978-01-01
Numerous active landslides are clearly significant contributors to high sediment loads in the Redwood Creek basin. Field and aerial-photograph inspections indicate that large mass-movement features, such as earthflows and massive streamside debris slides, occur primarily in terrain underlain by unmetamorphosed or slightly metamorphosed sedimentary rocks. These features cannot account for stream sediment derived from schist. Observed lithologic heterogeneity of stream sediment therefore suggests that large-scale mass movement is only one part of a complex suite of processes supplying sediment to streams in this basin. Other significant sediment contributors include various forms of fluvial erosion and small-scale discrete mass failures, particularly on oversteepened hillslopes adjacent to perennial streams. Photo-interpretive studies of landslide and timber-harvest history adjacent to Redwood Creek, together with analysis of regional precipitation and runoff records for six flood-producing storms between 1953 and 1975, indicate that loci and times of significant streamside landsliding are influenced by both local storm intensity and streamside logging. Analysis of rainfall records and historic accounts indicates that the individual storms comprising a late-19th-century series of storms in northwestern California were similar in magnitude and spacing to those of the past 25 years. The recent storms apparently initiated more streamside landslides than comparable earlier storms, which occurred prior to extensive road construction and timber harvest. Field observations and repeated surveys of stake arrays at 10 sites in the basin indicate that earthflows are especially active during prolonged periods of moderate rainfall; but that during brief intense storms, fluvial processes are the dominant erosion mechanism. Stake movement occurs mostly during wet winter months. Spring and summer movement was detected at some moist streamside sites. Surveys of stake arrays in two recently logged areas did not indicate exceptionally rapid rates of movement in three years following timber harvest.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nystuen, Jeffrey A.; Amitai, Eyal
2003-04-01
The underwater sound generated by raindrop splashes on a water surface is loud and unique allowing detection, classification and quantification of rainfall. One of the advantages of the acoustic measurement is that the listening area, an effective catchment area, is proportional to the depth of the hydrophone and can be orders of magnitude greater than other in situ rain gauges. This feature allows high temporal resolution of the rainfall measurement. A series of rain events with extremely high rainfall rates, over 100 mm/hr, is examined acoustically. Rapid onset and cessation of rainfall intensity are detected within the convective cells of these storms with maximum 5-s resolution values exceeding 1000 mm/hr. The probability distribution functions (pdf) for rainfall rate occurrence and water volume using the longer temporal resolutions typical of other instruments do not include these extreme values. The variance of sound intensity within different acoustic frequency bands can be used as an aid to classify rainfall type. Objective acoustic classification algorithms are proposed. Within each rainfall classification the relationship between sound intensity and rainfall rate is nearly linear. The reflectivity factor, Z, also has a linear relationship with rainfall rate, R, for each rainfall classification.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Capra, Lucia; Coviello, Velio; Borselli, Lorenzo; Márquez-Ramírez, Víctor-Hugo; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raul
2018-03-01
The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h -1. The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the south-southwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5-6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m3 s -1. Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green-Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses within a lahar are not randomly distributed in time, and they can be correlated with rainfall peak intensity and/or watershed discharge, depending on the watershed area and shape. This outcome has important implications for hazard assessment during extreme hydro-meteorological events, as it could help in providing real-time alerts. A theoretical rainfall distribution curve was designed for Volcán de Colima based on the rainfall and time distribution of hurricanes Manuel and Patricia. This can be used to run simulations using weather forecasts prior to the actual event, in order to estimate the arrival time of main lahar pulses, usually characterized by block-rich fronts, which are responsible for most of the damage to infrastructure and loss of goods and lives.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul
2013-06-01
The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sakuma, Kazuyuki; Malins, Alex; Kurikami, Hiroshi; Kitamura, Akihiro
2017-04-01
Due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident triggered by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami on 11 March 2011, many radionuclides were released into environments such as forests, rivers, dam reservoirs, and the ocean. 137Cs is one of the most important radio-contaminants. In order to investigate 137Cs transport and discharge from contaminated basins, in this study we developed a three dimensional model of five river basins near to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We applied the General-purpose Terrestrial fluid-Flow Simulator (GETFLOWS) watershed code to the Odaka, Ukedo, Maeda, Kuma, and Tomioka River basins. The main land uses in these areas are forests, rice paddy fields, crop fields and urban. The Ukedo, Kuma and Tomioka Rivers have relatively large dam reservoirs (>106 m3) in the upper basins. The radiocesium distribution was initiated based on the Second Airborne Monitoring Survey. The simulation periods were 2011 Typhoon Roke, nine heavy rainfall events in 2013, Typhoons Man-yi and Wipha, and tropical storm Etau in 2015. Water, sediment, and radiocesium discharge from the basins was calculated for these events. The characteristics of 137Cs runoff between the different basins were evaluated in terms of land use, the effect of dam reservoirs, geology, and the fraction of the initial radiocesium inventory discharged. The absolute 137Cs discharge from the Ukedo River basin was highest, however the 137Cs discharge ratio was lowest due to the Ogaki Dam and the inventory being mainly concentrated in upstream forests. The results for the water, suspended sediment and radiocesium discharge as a function of total precipitation over the various rainfall events can be used to predict discharges for other typhoons.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Sempere-Torres, Daniel
2010-05-01
Important damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions. These are major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods and different kinds of rainfall observations are available in real time: radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts from METEO FRANCE and the CALAMAR system from SPC (state authority in charge of flood forecasting). An application devoted to the road network, has also been recently developed for this region. It combines distributed hydro-meteorological very short range forecasts and vulnerability analysis to provide warnings of road submersions. The first results demonstrate that it is technically possible to provide distributed short-term forecasts for a large number of sites. The study also demonstrates that a reliable estimation of the spatial distribution of rainfall is essential. For this reason, the road submersion warning system can be used to evaluate the quality of rainfall estimates and nowcasts. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29-30 September 2007. During this event, more than 300mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Each of the mentioned rainfall datasets (i.e. estimates and nowcasts) was available in real time. They have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. The results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and a reasonable false alarm ratio. It demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall nowcasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding one hour.
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Debris-flow generation from recently burned watersheds
Cannon, S.H.
2001-01-01
Evaluation of the erosional response of 95 recently burned drainage basins in Colorado, New Mexico and southern California to storm rainfall provides information on the conditions that result in fire-related debris flows. Debris flows were produced from only 37 of 95 (~40 percent) basins examined; the remaining basins produced either sediment-laden streamflow or no discernable response. Debris flows were thus not the prevalent response of the burned basins. The debris flows that did occur were most frequently the initial response to significant rainfall events. Although some hillslopes continued to erode and supply material to channels in response to subsequent rainfall events, debris flows were produced from only one burned basin following the initial erosive event. Within individual basins, debris flows initiated through both runoff and infiltration-triggered processes. The fact that not all burned basins produced debris flows suggests that specific geologic and geomorphic conditions may control the generation of fire-related debris flows. The factors that best distinguish between debris-flow producing drainages and those that produced sediment-laden streamflow are drainage-basin morphology and lithology, and the presence or absence of water-repellent soils. Basins underlain by sedimentary rocks were most likely to produce debris flows that contain large material, and sand- and gravel-dominated flows were generated primarily from terrain underlain by decomposed granite. Basin-area and relief thresholds define the morphologic conditions under which both types of debris flows occur. Debris flows containing large material are more likely to be produced from basins without water-repellent soils than from basins with water repellency. The occurrence of sand-and gravel-dominated debris flows depends on the presence of water-repellent soils.
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Hydrological sensitivity of volcanically disturbed watersheds—a lesson reinforced at Pinatubo
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Major, J. J.; Janda, R. J.
2016-12-01
The climactic June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo devastated many surrounding catchments with thick pyroclastic fall and flow deposits, and subsequent hydrogeomorphic responses were dramatic and persisted for years. But in the 24 hours preceding the climactic eruption there was less devastating eruptive activity that had more subtle, yet significant, impact on catchment hydrology. Stratigraphic relations show damaging lahars swept all major channels east of the volcano, starting late on June 14 and continuing through (and in some instances after) midday on June 15, before the climactic phase of the eruption began and before Typhoon Yunya struck the region. These early lahars were preceded by relatively small explosions and pyroclastic surges that emplaced fine-grained ash in the upper catchments, locally damaged or destroyed vegetation, reduced hillside infiltration capacity, and smoothed surface roughness. Thus the lahars, likely triggered by typical afternoon monsoon storms perhaps enhanced by local thermal influences of fresh volcanic deposits, did not result from extraordinary tropical rainfall or exceptional volcaniclastic deposition. Instead, direct rainfall-runoff volume increased substantially as a consequence of vegetation damage and moderate deposition of fine ash. Rapid runoff from hillsides to channels initiated hillside and bank erosion as well as channel scour, producing debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows. Timing of some lahars varied across catchments as well as downstream within catchments with respect to climactic pumice fall, demonstrating complex interplay among volcanic processes, variations in catchment disturbance, and rainfall timing and intensity. Occurrence of these early lahars supports the hypothesis that eruptions that deposit fine ash in volcanic catchments can instigate major hydrogeomorphic responses even when volcanic disturbances are modest—an effect that can be masked by later eruption impacts.
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Hillslope-channel coupling in a steep Hawaiian catchment accelerates erosion rates over 100-fold
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stock, J. D.; Hanshaw, M. N.; Rosener, M.; Schmidt, K. M.; Brooks, B. A.; Tribble, G.; Jacobi, J.
2009-12-01
In tropical watersheds, hillslope changes are producing increasing amounts of fine sediment that can be quickly carried to reefs by channels. Suspended sediment concentrations off the reefs of Molokai, Hawaii, chronically exceed a toxic level of 10 mg/L, threatening reef ecosystems. We hypothesize that historic conversion of watersheds from soil creep to overland flow erosion increased both magnitude and frequency of sediment flooding adjacent reefs. We combined surficial and ecological mapping, hillslope and stream gages, and novel sensors to locate, quantify and model the generation of fine sediments polluting the Molokai reef. Ecological and geomorphic mapping from LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery located a subset of overland flow areas with vegetation cover below a threshold value preventing erosion. Here, feral goat grazing exposed cohesive volcanic soils whose low matrix hydraulic conductivities (1-20 mm/hour) promote Horton overland flow erosion. We instrumented steep, barren hillslopes with soil moisture sensors, overland flow meters, Parshall flumes, ISCO sediment samplers, and a rain gage and conducted repeat Tripod LiDAR and infiltration tests. To characterize soil resistance here and elsewhere to overland flow erosion, we deployed a Cohesive Strength Meter (CSM) to simulate the stresses of flowing water. At the 13.5 km 2 watershed mouth we used a USGS stream gage and ISCO sediment sampler to estimate total load. Over 2 years, storms triggered overland flow during rainfall intensities above 10-15 mm/hr. Overland flow meters indicate such flows can be up to 3 cm deep, with a tendency to deepen downslope. CSM tests indicate that these depths are insufficient to erode soils where vegetation is dense, but far above threshold values of 2-3 mm depth for bare soil erosion. Sediment ratings curves for both hillslope and downstream catchment gages show strong clock-wise hysteresis during the first intense storms in the Fall, becoming linear later in the rainy season. During Fall storms, sediment concentration is often 10X higher at a given stage. During intense Fall storms, we measured erosion rates using erosion pins (1.0 cm/a), suspended sediment flux (1.5 cm/a) and repeat tripod LiDAR (1.7 cm/a). These rates are at least 100-fold greater than the long-term lowering rate of 0.13 mm/a. A sediment budget constructed by extrapolating hillslope lowering rates to the portions of the catchments mapped as overland flow hotspots predicts a total yearly flux of ~ 6500 t, in agreement with the measured total of ~6200 t. A decadal record illustrates that rainfall intensities sufficient to generate overland flow occur for at least 8-10 hours every year, coincident with 1-3 large storm events. We hypothesize that high lowering rates reflect a combination of long-duration overland flow events, and availability of weathered soils that can be entrained by thin flows. It appears that the generation of loose, seasonally weathered silt is a 1st order control on the amount of sediment exported to the reef. If climate change increases storm frequency or duration, or decreases vegetation cover, sediment loading rates to the reef here could increase dramatically.
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Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan
2015-01-01
Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng’s tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I 30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I 30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I 20, EI 10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I 10), EI 20 and EI 30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I 30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations. PMID:25781173
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nasri, S.; Cudennec, C.; Albergel, J.; Berndtsson, R.
2004-02-01
In the beginning of the 1990s, the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture launched an ambitious program for constructing small hillside reservoirs in the northern and central region of the country. At present, more than 720 reservoirs have been created. They consist of small compacted earth dams supplied with a horizontal overflow weir. Due to lack of hydrological data and the area's extreme floods, however, it is very difficult to design the overflow weirs. Also, catchments are very sensitive to erosion and the reservoirs are rapidly silted up. Consequently, prediction of flood volumes for important rainfall events becomes crucial. Few hydrological observations, however, exist for the catchment areas. For this purpose a geomorphological model methodology is presented to predict shape and volume of hydrographs for important floods. This model is built around a production function that defines the net storm rainfall (portion of rainfall during a storm which reaches a stream channel as direct runoff) from the total rainfall (observed rainfall in the catchment) and a transfer function based on the most complete possible definition of the surface drainage system. Observed rainfall during 5-min time steps was used in the model. The model runoff generation is based on surface drainage characteristics which can be easily extracted from maps. The model was applied to two representative experimental catchments in central Tunisia. The conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on surface topography and drainage network was seen to reproduce observed runoff satisfactory. The calibrated model was used to estimate runoff from 5, 10, 20, and 50 year rainfall return periods regarding runoff volume, maximum runoff, as well as the general shape of the runoff hydrograph. Practical conclusions to design hill reservoirs and to extrapolate results using this model methodology for ungauged small catchments in semiarid Tunisia are made.
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Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan
2015-01-01
Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10), EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.
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Nonpoint Source Monitoring and Evaluation Guide: Final ...
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Tokunaga, Chiho; Tsukada, Toru; Sakamoto, Hiroaki; Naruse, Yoshihisa; Yoshida, Kentaro; Sekiguchi, Yukio; Imai, Akito; Aonuma, Kazutaka; Hiramatsu, Yuji
2016-01-01
Electrical storm is a rare but critical complication following revascularization in patients with ischemic heart disease. We report the case of a 67-year-old man who developed drug refractory intractable electrical storm after emergent coronary artery bypass grafting for ischemic cardiomyopathy. The electrical storm was successfully eliminated by percutaneous endocardial radiofrequency catheter ablation targeting the abnormal Purkinje-related triggering ventricular premature contractions in a low-voltage zone. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Rainfall erosivity in Central Chile
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonilla, Carlos A.; Vidal, Karim L.
2011-11-01
SummaryOne of the most widely used indicators of potential water erosion risk is the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor ( R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R is traditionally determined by calculating a long-term average of the annual sum of the product of a storm's kinetic energy ( E) and its maximum 30-min intensity ( I30), known as the EI30. The original method used to calculate EI30 requires pluviograph records for at most 30-min time intervals. Such high resolution data is difficult to obtain in many parts of the world, and processing it is laborious and time-consuming. In Chile, even though there is a well-distributed rain gauge network, there is no systematic characterization of the territory in terms of rainfall erosivity. This study presents a rainfall erosivity map for most of the cultivated land in the country. R values were calculated by the prescribed method for 16 stations with continuous graphical record rain gauges in Central Chile. The stations were distributed along 800 km (north-south), and spanned a precipitation gradient of 140-2200 mm yr -1. More than 270 years of data were used, and 5400 storms were analyzed. Additionally, 241 spatially distributed R values were generated by using an empirical procedure based on annual rainfall. Point estimates generated by both methods were interpolated by using kriging to create a map of rainfall erosivity for Central Chile. The results show that the empirical procedure used in this study predicted the annual rainfall erosivity well (model efficiency = 0.88). Also, an increment in the rainfall erosivities was found as a result of the rainfall depths, a regional feature determined by elevation and increasing with latitude from north to south. R values in the study area range from 90 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the north up to 7375 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the southern area, at the foothills of the Andes Mountains. Although the map and the estimates could be improved in the future by generating additional data points, the erosivity map should prove to be a good tool for land-use planners in Chile and other areas with similar rainfall characteristics.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chang, Kuo-Jen; Tseng, Chih-Ming
2017-04-01
Due to the high seismicity and high annual rainfall, numerous landslides triggered every year and severe impacts affect the island Taiwan. Global warming and sea-level rise with increasing frequency and magnitude of storms and typhoons has resulted in an increase of natural hazards, and strong impacts on human life. A consequence of a change of the rainfall regime, increase of intensity and in a reduction of the duration of the events may have dramatic impacts. Heavy rainfall precipitations are one of the major triggering factors for landslides. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 brought extreme and long-time rainfall, and caused severe disasters. After 2009, numerous debris and sediment deposition increased greatly due to the severe landslides in upstream area. Detail morphological records may able to reveal the environment changes. This kind of analysis is based on the concept of DEM of difference (DoD) to evaluate the sediment budgets during climate and geo-hazard events. The aerial photographs generated digital surface models (DSMs) before and after Typhoon Morakot, and the subsequent multi-periods of imageries is thus been conducted in this study. In recent years, the remote sensing technology improves rapidly, providing a wide range of image, essential and precious information. In order quantify the hazards in different time; we try to integrate several technologies, especially by unmanned aircraft system (UAS), to decipher the consequence and the potential hazard, and the social impact. In order to monitoring the sediment budget of the study area, we integrates several methods, including, 1) Remote-sensing images gathered by UAS and by aerial photos taken in different periods; 2) field in-situ geologic investigation; 3) Differential GPS, RTK GPS in-site geomatic measurements; 4) Construct the DTMs before and after landslide, as well as the subsequent periods using UAS and aerial photos. We finally acquired 7 DEMs, prior to post-events, from 2009-2015. The precision of the dataset been verified firstly. The migration of the debris is well defined from DEMs and been calculated. The sediment budgets are thus been evaluated. The riverbed migration is affect both by natural sediment deposition and by human activities. The profile of the riverbed is blocked mainly in the midstream area. One-half of the debris still rested on the mid- to upstream, and in the up-slope. To the end, the UAS and the methodology used in this study is been adjusted and is capable to apply to other region for hazard monitoring, mitigation and planning.
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Response of African Elephants (Loxodonta africana) to Seasonal Changes in Rainfall
Garstang, Michael; Davis, Robert E.; Leggett, Keith; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.; Greco, Steven; Zipser, Edward; Peterson, Michael
2014-01-01
The factors that trigger sudden, seasonal movements of elephants are uncertain. We hypothesized that savannah elephant movements at the end of the dry season may be a response to their detection of distant thunderstorms. Nine elephants carrying Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers were tracked over seven years in the extremely dry and rugged region of northwestern Namibia. The transition date from dry to wet season conditions was determined annually from surface- and satellite-derived rainfall. The distance, location, and timing of rain events relative to the elephants were determined using the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation observations. Behavioral Change Point Analysis (BCPA) was applied to four of these seven years demonstrating a response in movement of these elephants to intra- and inter-seasonal occurrences of rainfall. Statistically significant changes in movement were found prior to or near the time of onset of the wet season and before the occurrence of wet episodes within the dry season, although the characteristics of the movement changes are not consistent between elephants and years. Elephants in overlapping ranges, but following separate tracks, exhibited statistically valid non-random near-simultaneous changes in movements when rainfall was occurring more than 100 km from their location. While the environmental trigger that causes these excursions remains uncertain, rain-system generated infrasound, which can travel such distances and be detected by elephants, is a possible trigger for such changes in movement. PMID:25299514
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Response of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) to seasonal changes in rainfall.
Garstang, Michael; Davis, Robert E; Leggett, Keith; Frauenfeld, Oliver W; Greco, Steven; Zipser, Edward; Peterson, Michael
2014-01-01
The factors that trigger sudden, seasonal movements of elephants are uncertain. We hypothesized that savannah elephant movements at the end of the dry season may be a response to their detection of distant thunderstorms. Nine elephants carrying Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers were tracked over seven years in the extremely dry and rugged region of northwestern Namibia. The transition date from dry to wet season conditions was determined annually from surface- and satellite-derived rainfall. The distance, location, and timing of rain events relative to the elephants were determined using the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation observations. Behavioral Change Point Analysis (BCPA) was applied to four of these seven years demonstrating a response in movement of these elephants to intra- and inter-seasonal occurrences of rainfall. Statistically significant changes in movement were found prior to or near the time of onset of the wet season and before the occurrence of wet episodes within the dry season, although the characteristics of the movement changes are not consistent between elephants and years. Elephants in overlapping ranges, but following separate tracks, exhibited statistically valid non-random near-simultaneous changes in movements when rainfall was occurring more than 100 km from their location. While the environmental trigger that causes these excursions remains uncertain, rain-system generated infrasound, which can travel such distances and be detected by elephants, is a possible trigger for such changes in movement.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lavender, Sally L.; Hoeke, Ron K.; Abbs, Deborah J.
2018-03-01
Tropical cyclones (TCs) result in widespread damage associated with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. TC Yasi was one of the most powerful TCs to impact the Queensland coast since records began. Prior to Yasi, the SSTs in the Coral Sea were higher than average by 1-2 °C, primarily due to the 2010/2011 La Niña event. In this study, a conceptually simple idealised sensitivity analysis is performed using a high-resolution regional model to gain insight into the influence of SST on the track, size, intensity and associated rainfall of TC Yasi. A set of nine simulations with uniform SST anomalies of between -4 and 4 °C applied to the observed SSTs are analysed. The resulting surface winds and pressure are used to force a barotropic storm surge model to examine the influence of SST on the associated storm surge of TC Yasi. An increase in SST results in an increase in intensity, precipitation and integrated kinetic energy of the storm; however, there is little influence on track prior to landfall. In addition to an increase in precipitation, there is a change in the spatial distribution of precipitation as the SST increases. Decreases in SSTs result in an increase in the radius of maximum winds due to an increase in the asymmetry of the storm, although the radius of gale-force winds decreases. These changes in the TC characteristics also lead to changes in the associated storm surge. Generally, cooler (warmer) SSTs lead to reduced (enhanced) maximum storm surges. However, the increase in surge reaches a maximum with an increase in SST of 2 °C. Any further increase in SST does not affect the maximum surge but the total area and duration of the simulated surge increases with increasing upper ocean temperatures. A large decrease in maximum storm surge height occurs when a negative SST anomaly is applied, suggesting if TC Yasi had occurred during non-La Niña conditions the associated storm surge may have been greatly diminished, with a decrease in storm surge height of over 3 m when the SST is reduced by 2 °C. In summary, increases in SST lead to an increase in the potential destructiveness of TCs with regard to intensity, precipitation and storm surge, although this relationship is not linear.
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Satellite-observed latent heat release in a tropical cyclone
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adler, R. F.; Rodgers, E. B.
1976-01-01
Earlier observational estimates of storm latent heat release (LHR) have been made using a moisture budget approach. The present paper summarizes results for the tropical cyclone Nora, using the electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) on Nimbus 5, on the basis of the theoretical brightness temperature/rainfall rate relationship for an assumed freezing level of 5 km. The LHR of the storm as a function of time for a circular area of radius 4 deg latitude positioned on the circulation center is discussed along with the calculated mean rain rate as a function of distance from the storm center. The contribution of the various magnitudes of rain rates to the total LHR of the storm is examined. It is concluded that the Nimbus 5 ESMR data can be used to determine the LHR characteristics of tropical cyclones and are potentially useful in the monitoring of such storms. The calculations for Typhoon Nora indicate that the LHR for the storm increases as the storm intensifies from a tropical disturbance to a typhoon.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stock, J. D.; Rosener, M.; Schmidt, K. M.; Hanshaw, M. N.; Brooks, B. A.; Tribble, G.; Jacobi, J.
2010-12-01
Pollution from coastal watersheds threatens the ecology of the nearshore, including tropical reefs. Suspended sediment concentrations off the reefs of Molokai, Hawaii, chronically exceed a toxic 10 mg/L, threatening reef ecosystems. We hypothesize that historic conversion of hillslope processes from soil creep to overland flow increased both magnitude and frequency of erosion. To create a process sediment budget, we used surficial and ecological mapping, hillslope and stream gages, and novel sensors to locate, quantify and model the generation of fine sediments polluting the reef. Ecological and geomorphic mapping from LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery located overland flow areas with vegetation cover below a threshold preventing erosion. Here, feral goat grazing exposed volcanic soils whose low matrix hydraulic conductivities (1-25 mm/hour) promote Horton overland flow. We instrumented steep, barren hillslopes with soil moisture sensors, overland flow meters, Parshal flumes, ISCO sediment samplers, and a rain gage and conducted repeat Tripod LiDAR and infiltration tests. To characterize soil resistance to overland flow erosion, we used a Cohesive Strength Meter (CSM) to simulate water stress. At the 13.5 km 2 watershed mouth we used a USGS stream gage with an ISCO sediment sampler to estimate total load. Over 3 years, storms triggered overland flow during rainfall intensities above 10-15 mm/hr. Overland flow meters indicate such flows can be up to 3 cm deep, with a tendency to deepen downslope. CSM tests indicate that these depths are insufficient to erode soils where vegetation is dense, but far above threshold values of 2-3 mm for bare soils. Sediment ratings curves for both hillslope and downstream catchment gages show clock-wise hysteresis during the first intense storms in the fall, becoming linear later in the season. During fall storms, sediment concentration is often 10X higher at a given stage. Revised annual lowering rates from experimental hillslopes are 1.5 cm/a (erosion pins), 1.4 cm/a (suspended sediment) and 1.6 cm/a (repeat Tripod LiDAR). These rates are at least 100-fold greater than the long-term river lowering rate of 0.13 mm/a. A sediment budget constructed by extrapolating hillslope lowering rates to the portions of the catchments mapped as unvegetated overland flow predicts a total yearly flux of ~ 6500 t, in agreement with the measured total of ~6200 t. Decadal records illustrate that rainfall intensities sufficient to generate overland flow occur for at least 8-10 hours every year, coincident with 1-3 large storm events. We hypothesize that high lowering rates reflect a combination of long-duration overland flow events, and availability of weathered soils that can be entrained by thin flow. It appears that generation of loose, seasonally weathered silt is a 1st order control on the amount of sediment exported to the reef. If climate change increases storm frequency or duration, or decreases vegetation cover, sediment loading to reefs could increase dramatically.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Borovsky, Joseph E; Cayton, Thomas E; Denton, Michael H
Electron flux measurements from 7 satellites in geosynchronous orbit from 1990-2007 are fit with relativistic bi-Maxwellians, yielding a number density n and temperature T description of the outer electron radiation belt. For 54.5 spacecraft years of measurements the median value ofn is 3.7x10-4 cm-3 and the median value ofT is 142 keY. General statistical properties of n, T, and the 1.1-1.5 MeV flux J are investigated, including local-time and solar-cycle dependencies. Using superposed-epoch analysis triggered on storm onset, the evolution of the outer electron radiation belt through high-speed-steam-driven storms is investigated. The number density decay during the calm before themore » storm is seen, relativistic-electron dropouts and recoveries from dropout are investigated, and the heating of the outer electron radiation belt during storms is examined. Using four different triggers (SSCs, southward-IMF CME sheaths, southward-IMF magnetic clouds, and minimum Dst), CME-driven storms are analyzed with superposed-epoch techniques. For CME-driven storms an absence of a density decay prior to storm onset is found, the compression of the outer electron radiation belt at time of SSC is analyzed, the number-density increase and temperature decrease during storm main phase is seen, and the increase in density and temperature during storm recovery phase is observed. Differences are found between the density-temperature and the flux descriptions, with more information for analysis being available in the density-temperature description.« less
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Lawrence, Stephen J.; Wigington, Parker J.
1987-01-01
Oxidized nitrogen (nitrite plus nitrate N) concentrations were measured from bulk precipitation, bulk throughfall, and screamflow in a 7. 86 hectare forested watershed in southeastern Oklahoma during the wet season from March through June 1983. Oxidized nitrogen inputs comparable to results of other studies were recorded during the 19 rainstorms sampled. Oxidized nitrogen concentrations appeared to increase after rainfall interacted with the pine and hardwood canopies and were inversely related to both rainfall and throughfall depth. Oxidized N concentrations in streamflow were greatest during the rising limb of storm flow with subsequent decreases during the falling limb of storm hydrographs and lowest during base flow. The oxidized N inputs from bulk precipitation were considerably greater than outputs from streamflow resulting in a net retention of oxidized nitrogen within the watershed during the study period.
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Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel
Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Massa, Bruno; Gimenez, Olivier
2014-01-01
Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. PMID:24728099
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Chow, M F; Yusop, Z; Shirazi, S M
2013-10-01
Information on the pollution level and the influence of hydrologic regime on the stormwater pollutant loading in tropical urban areas are still scarce. More local data are still required because rainfall and runoff generation processes in tropical environment are very different from the temperate regions. This study investigated the extent of urban runoff pollution in residential, commercial, and industrial catchments in the south of Peninsular Malaysia. Stormwater samples and flow rate data were collected from 51 storm events. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, oil and grease (O&G), nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), nitrite nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus, total phosphorus (TP), and zinc (Zn). It was found that the event mean concentrations (EMCs) of pollutants varied greatly between storm characteristics and land uses. The results revealed that site EMCs for residential catchment were lower than the published data but higher for the commercial and industrial catchments. All rainfall variables were negatively correlated with EMCs of most pollutants except for antecedent dry days (ADD). This study reinforced the earlier findings on the importance of ADD for causing greater EMC values with exceptions for O&G, NO3-N, TP, and Zn. In contrast, the pollutant loadings are influenced primarily by rainfall depth, mean intensity, and max 5-min intensity in all the three catchments. Overall, ADD is an important variable in multiple linear regression models for predicting the EMC values in the tropical urban catchments.
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Rainwater utilization and storm pollution control based on urban runoff characterization.
Zhang, Mulan; Chen, Hao; Wang, Jizhen; Pan, Gang
2010-01-01
The characteristics of urban runoffs and their impact on rainwater utilization and storm pollution control were investigated in three different functional areas of Zhengzhou City, China. The results showed that in the same rain event the pollutant loads (chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS)) in the sampling areas were in the order of industrial area > commercial area > residential area, and within the same area the COD and TSS concentrations of road runoffs were higher than those of roof runoffs. The first flush effects in roof and road runoffs were observed, hence the initial rainwater should be treated separately to reduce rainwater utilization cost and control storm pollution. The initial roof rainfall of 2 mm in residential area, 5 mm in commercial area and 10 mm in industrial area, and the initial road rainfall of 4 mm in residential area and all the road rainfall in commercial and industrial areas should be collected and treated accordingly before direct discharge or utilization. Based on the strong correlation between COD and TSS (R2, 0.87-0.95) and the low biodegradation capacity (biochemical oxygen demand BOD5/COD < 0.3), a sedimentation process and an effective filtration system composed of soil and slag were designed to treat the initial rainwater, which could remove over 90% of the pollutant loads. The above results may help to develop better rainwater utilization and pollution control strategies for cities with water shortages.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yankine, S. A.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Mesta, D. C.; Côté, J. F.; Hildebrandt, A.; Friesen, J.; Maldonado, G.
2017-12-01
Stemflow is a pointed hydrologic flux at the base of tree stems that has been linked to a host of biogeochemical processes in vegetated landscapes. Much work has been done to examine controls over stemflow water yield, finding three major factors: individual tree canopy structure, meteorological variables, and neighborhood conditions. However, the authors are unaware of any study to directly quantify all factors using a combination of terrestrial LiDAR and micrometeorological monitoring methods. This study directly quantifies individual Pinus palustris tree canopy characteristics (trunk volume and angle, branch volume and angle from 1st-to-3rd order, bark roughness, and height), 10-m radius neighborhood properties (number of trees, mean diameter and height, mean distance from study tree, and canopy overlap), and above-canopy storm conditions (magnitude, intensity, mean/max wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit) directly at the site. Stemflow production was 1% of rainfall, ranging from 0.3-59 L per storm from individual trees. Preliminary findings from storms (5-176 mm in magnitude) indicate that all individual tree characteristics, besides bark roughness, have little influence on stemflow generation. Bark roughness altered stemflow generation by affecting trunk water storage (0.1-0.7 mm) and wet trunk evaporation rates (0.005-0.03 mm/h). The strongest influence over stemflow generation from individual trees was the interaction between neighborhood characteristics and meteorological conditions (primarily rainfall amount and, secondarily, rainfall intensity).
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Infrared Data for Storm Analysis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adler, R.
1982-01-01
The papers in this section include: 1) 'Thunderstorm Top Structure Observed by Aircraft Overflights with an Infrared Radiometer'; 2) 'Thunderstorm Intensity as Determined from Satellite Data'; 3) 'Relation of Satellite-Based Thunderstorm Intensity to Radar-Estimated Rainfall'; 4) 'A Simple Physical Basis for Relating Geosynchronous Satellite Infrared Observations to Thunderstorm Rainfall'; 5) 'Satellite-Observed Cloud-Top Height Changes in Tornadic Thunderstorms'; 6) 'Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Satellite-Measured Equivalent Blackbody Temperatures of Cloud Tops'.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hess, L.; Basso, B.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.
2014-12-01
In the coming century, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is expected to increase in many areas, especially in the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for hydrologic flow and nutrient losses, especially in agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters. We used a tracer experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns may affect the movement of water and solutes through an agricultural soil profile in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. Two rainfall patterns were created with 5m x 5m rainout shelters at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site in replicated plots with either conventional tillage or no-till management. Control rainfall treatments received water 3x per week, and extreme rainfall treatments received the same total amount of water but once every two weeks, to simulate less frequent but larger storms. In April 2015, potassium bromide (KBr) was added as a conservative tracer of water flow to all plots, and Br- concentrations in soil water at 1.2m depth were measured weekly from April through July. Soil water Br- concentrations increased and peaked more quickly under the extreme rainfall treatment, suggesting increased infiltration and solute transfer to depth compared to soils exposed to control rainfall patterns. Soil water Br- also increased and peaked more quickly in no-till than in conventional tillage treatments, indicating differences in flow paths between management systems. Soil moisture measured every 15 minutes at 10, 40, and 100cm depths corroborates tracer experiment results: rainfall events simulated in extreme rainfall treatments led to large increases in deep soil moisture, while the smaller rainfall events simulated under control conditions did not. Deep soil moisture in no-till treatments also increased sooner after water application as compared to in conventional soils. Our results suggest that exposure to more extreme rainfall patterns will likely increase infiltration depth and nutrient losses in agricultural soils. In particular, soils under no-till management, which leads to development of preferential flow paths, may be particularly vulnerable to vertical nutrient losses.
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Potter, N.J.; Zhang, L.; Milly, P.C.D.; McMahon, T.A.; Jakeman, A.J.
2005-01-01
An important factor controlling catchment‐scale water balance is the seasonal variation of climate. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the seasonal distributions of water and energy, and their interactions with the soil moisture store, on mean annual water balance in Australia at catchment scales using a stochastic model of soil moisture balance with seasonally varying forcing. The rainfall regime at 262 catchments around Australia was modeled as a Poisson process with the mean storm arrival rate and the mean storm depth varying throughout the year as cosine curves with annual periods. The soil moisture dynamics were represented by use of a single, finite water store having infinite infiltration capacity, and the potential evapotranspiration rate was modeled as an annual cosine curve. The mean annual water budget was calculated numerically using a Monte Carlo simulation. The model predicted that for a given level of climatic aridity the ratio of mean annual evapotranspiration to rainfall was larger where the potential evapotranspiration and rainfall were in phase, that is, in summer‐dominant rainfall catchments, than where they were out of phase. The observed mean annual evapotranspiration ratios have opposite results. As a result, estimates of mean annual evapotranspiration from the model compared poorly with observational data. Because the inclusion of seasonally varying forcing alone was not sufficient to explain variability in the mean annual water balance, other catchment properties may play a role. Further analysis showed that the water balance was highly sensitive to the catchment‐scale soil moisture capacity. Calibrations of this parameter indicated that infiltration‐excess runoff might be an important process, especially for the summer‐dominant rainfall catchments; most similar studies have shown that modeling of infiltration‐excess runoff is not required at the mean annual timescale.
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Napolitano, E.; Fusco, F; Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; De Vita, P.
2016-01-01
Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfallinduced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity- Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.
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Synthetic calibration of a Rainfall-Runoff Model
Thompson, David B.; Westphal, Jerome A.; ,
1990-01-01
A method for synthetically calibrating storm-mode parameters for the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is described. Synthetic calibration is accomplished by adjusting storm-mode parameters to minimize deviations between the pseudo-probability disributions represented by regional regression equations and actual frequency distributions fitted to model-generated peak discharge and runoff volume. Results of modeling storm hydrographs using synthetic and analytic storm-mode parameters are presented. Comparisons are made between model results from both parameter sets and between model results and observed hydrographs. Although mean storm runoff is reproducible to within about 26 percent of the observed mean storm runoff for five or six parameter sets, runoff from individual storms is subject to large disparities. Predicted storm runoff volume ranged from 2 percent to 217 percent of commensurate observed values. Furthermore, simulation of peak discharges was poor. Predicted peak discharges from individual storm events ranged from 2 percent to 229 percent of commensurate observed values. The model was incapable of satisfactorily executing storm-mode simulations for the study watersheds. This result is not considered a particular fault of the model, but instead is indicative of deficiencies in similar conceptual models.
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The response of sap flow to pulses of rain in a temperate Australian woodland
Melanie Zeppel; Catrioina M.O. Macinnis-Ng; Chelcy R. Ford; Derek Eamus
2008-01-01
In water-limited systems, pulses of rainfall can trigger a cascade of plant physiological responses. However, the timing and size of the physiological response can vary depending on plant and environmental characteristics, such as rooting depth, plant size, rainfall amount, or antecedent soil moisture. We investigated the influence of pulses of rainfall on the response...
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Series of Storms Battering California Tracked by NASA AIRS Instrument
2017-01-13
A series of atmospheric rivers that brought drought-relieving rains, heavy snowfall and flooding to California this week is highlighted in a new movie created with satellite data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The images of atmospheric water vapor were collected by AIRS between January 7 and 11. They show the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere and its movement across the Pacific Ocean to the United States, where much of it fell as rain or snow. In early January 2017, the Western U.S. experienced rain and flooding from a series of storms flowing to America on multiple streams of moist air, each individually known as an atmospheric river. Atmospheric rivers are typically 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide. The term "Pineapple Express" refers to atmospheric rivers that originate near or just east of the Hawaiian Islands and terminate along the West Coast of North America. Other atmospheric rivers originate in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and take on a more west-to-east orientation near the U.S. West Coast. Several distinct plumes of moisture are apparent in the AIRS imagery. The first of three atmospheric river events occurred on January 7 and 8. This was a classic Pineapple Express, featuring an uninterrupted supply of heavy moisture drawn up from the deep tropics. This was the wettest storm of the series, producing very heavy rainfall, more than 1 foot (0.3 meter), in parts of Central and Northern California, with relatively smaller amounts of snow at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The second blob of heavy moisture, from January 8 to 10 to the west of California, likely originated thousands of miles to the west, in the tropical Western Pacific. This atmospheric river did not maintain its tropical connection. However, it still produced prodigious rainfall totals in Northern California and much more snow than the first event, since the storm had a more northern and colder trajectory. A third storm, the coldest of the three events, moved through California on January 11 and 12, producing significant rainfall, as well as snow at higher elevations. The movie ends with another atmospheric river attempting to form on January 11 and 12 to the west of Hawaii, transporting moisture into the storm track. Movies are availalbe at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21209
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoo, Chulsang; Park, Minkyu; Kim, Hyeon Jun; Choi, Juhee; Sin, Jiye; Jun, Changhyun
2015-01-01
In this study, the analysis of documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty, covering the entire period of 519 years from 1392 to 1910, was carried out. By applying various key words related to storm events, a total of 556 documentary records could be identified. The main objective of this study was to develop rules of classification for the documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty. The results were also compared with the rainfall data of the traditional Korean rain gauge, named Chukwooki, which are available from 1777 to 1910 (about 130 years). The analysis is organized as follows. First, the frequency of the documents, their length, comments about the size of the inundated area, the number of casualties, the number of property losses, and the size of the countermeasures, etc. were considered to determine the magnitude of the events. To this end, rules of classification of the storm events are developed. Cases in which the word 'disaster' was used along with detailed information about the casualties and property damages, were classified as high-level storm events. The high-level storm events were additionally sub-categorized into catastrophic, extreme, and severe events. Second, by applying the developed rules of classification, a total of 326 events were identified as high-level storm events during the 519 years of the Choson Dynasty. Among these high-level storm events, only 19 events were then classified as the catastrophic ones, 106 events as the extreme ones, and 201 events as the severe ones. The mean return period of these storm events was found to be about 30 years for the catastrophic events, 5 years for the extreme events, and 2-3 years for the severe events. Third, the classification results were verified considering the records of the traditional Korean rain gauge; it was found that the catastrophic events are strongly distinguished from other events with a mean total rainfall and a storm duration equal to 439.8 mm and 49.3 h, respectively. The return period of these catastrophic events was also estimated to be in the range 100-500 years.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.
2013-12-01
Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a less skewed distribution. In a second step, an analysis of the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall synchronicity by means of complex networks reveals patterns of the propagation of extreme rainfall events. These patterns differ substantially from those obtained from the mean annual rainfall distribution. In addition, we have developed a scheme to predict rainfall extreme events in the eastern Central Andes based on event synchronization and spatial patterns of complex networks. The presented methods and result will allow to critically evaluate data and models in space and time.
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Reconstruction of rainfall in Zafra (southwest Spain) from 1750 to 1840 from documentary sources
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernández-Fernández, M. I.; Gallego, M. C.; Domínguez-Castro, F.; Vaquero, J. M.; Moreno González, J. M.; Castillo Durán, J.
2011-11-01
This work presents the first high-resolution reconstruction of rainfall in southwestern Spain during the period 1750-1840. The weather descriptions used are weekly reports describing the most relevant events that occurred in the Duchy of Feria. An index was defined to characterise the weekly rainfall. Monthly indices were obtained by summing the corresponding weekly indices, obtaining cumulative monthly rainfall indices. The reconstruction method consisted of establishing a linear correlation between the monthly rainfall index and monthly instrumental data (1960-1990). The correlation coefficients were greater than 0.80 for all months. The rainfall reconstruction showed major variability similar to natural variability. The reconstructed rainfall series in Zafra was compared with the rainfall series of Cadiz, Gibraltar and Lisbon for the period 1750-1840, with all four series found to have a similar pattern. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the winter rainfall reconstruction was found to behave similarly to that of modern times. Other studies described are of the SLP values over the entire North Atlantic in the months with extreme values of rainfall, and unusual meteorological events (hail, frost, storms and snowfall) in the reports of the Duchy of Feria.
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Truman, C C; Strickland, T C; Potter, T L; Franklin, D H; Bosch, D D; Bednarz, C W
2007-01-01
The low-carbon, intensively cropped Coastal Plain soils of Georgia are susceptible to runoff, soil loss, and drought. Reduced tillage systems offer the best management tool for sustained row crop production. Understanding runoff, sediment, and chemical losses from conventional and reduced tillage systems is expected to improve if the effect of a variable rainfall intensity storm was quantified. Our objective was to quantify and compare effects of a constant (Ic) intensity pattern and a more realistic, observed, variable (Iv) rainfall intensity pattern on runoff (R), sediment (E), and carbon losses (C) from a Tifton loamy sand cropped to conventional-till (CT) and strip-till (ST) cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Four treatments were evaluated: CT-Ic, CT-Iv, ST-Ic, and ST-Iv, each replicated three times. Field plots (n=12), each 2 by 3 m, were established on each treatment. Each 6-m2 field plot received simulated rainfall at a constant (57 mm h(-1)) or variable rainfall intensity pattern for 70 min (12-run ave.=1402 mL; CV=3%). The Iv pattern represented the most frequent occurring intensity pattern for spring storms in the region. Compared with CT, ST decreased R by 2.5-fold, E by 3.5-fold, and C by 7-fold. Maximum runoff values for Iv events were 1.6-fold higher than those for Ic events and occurred 38 min earlier. Values for Etot and Ctot for Iv events were 19-36% and 1.5-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Values for Emax and Cmax for Iv events were 3-fold and 4-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Carbon enrichment ratios (CER) were
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Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall pH
Richard G. Semonin
1977-01-01
The distribution of average rainwater pH over an area of 1,800 km² containing 81 collectors was determined from 25 storm events. The areal average of the data was pH 4.9, with a range of values from 4.3 to 6.8. A single storm event was studied to determine the change of pH as a function of time. The initial rain was pH 7.1, decreasing to 4.1. An excellent...
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rubes, M. T.; Cooper, H. J.; Smith, E. A.
1993-01-01
Data collected during the Convective and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment were analyzed as part of an investigation of the sea breeze in the vicinity of Merritt Island, Florida. Analysis of near-surface divergence fields shows that the classical 24-hour oscillation in divergence over the island due to the direct sea breeze circulation is frequently disrupted and exhibits two distinct modes: the classical sea breeze pattern and deviations from that pattern. A comparison of clear day surface energy fluxes with fluxes on other days indicates that changes in magnitudes were dominated by the presence or absence of clouds. Non-classical sea breeze days tended to lose more available energy in the morning than classical sea breeze days due to earlier development of small cumulus over the island. A composite storm of surface winds, surface energy fluxes, rainfall, and satellite visible data was constructed. A spectral transmittance over the visible wavelengths for the cloud cover resulting from the composite storm was calculated. It is shown that pre-storm transmittances of 0.8 fall to values near 0.1 as the downdraft moves directly over the site. It is also found that under post-composite storm conditions of continuous clear sky days, 3.5 days are required to evaporate back into the atmosphere the latent heat energy lost to the surface by rainfall.
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Stormwater quality processes for three land-use areas in Broward County, Florida
Mattraw, H.C.; Miller, Robert A.
1981-01-01
Systematic collection and chemical analysis of stormwater runoff samples from three small urban areas in Broward County, Florida, were obtained between 1974 and 1977. Thirty or more runoff-constituent loads were computed for each of the homogeneous land-use areas. The areas sampled were single family residential, highway, and a commercial shopping center. Rainfall , runoff, and nutrient and metal analyses were stored in a data-management system. The data-management system permitted computation of loads, publication of basic-data reports and the interface of environmental and load information with a comprehensive statistical analysis system. Seven regression models relating water quality loads to characteristics of peak discharge, antecedent conditions, season, storm duration and rainfall intensity were constructed for each of the three sites. Total water-quality loads were computed for the collection period by summing loads for individual storms. Loads for unsampled storms were estimated by using regression models and records of storm precipitation. Loadings, pounds per day per acre of hydraulically effective impervious area, were computed for the three land-use types. Total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total residue loadings were highest in the residential area. Chemical oxygen demand and total lead loadings were highest in the commercial area. Loadings of atmospheric fallout on each watershed were estimated by bulk precipitation samples collected at the highway and commercial site. (USGS)